cssi/SciSciGPT-SciSciNet huggingface dataset:
Testing Rival Decision–Making Theories on Budget Outputs: Theories and Comparative Evidence

This study demonstrates the link between the degree of economic rationality and budgetary decision–making outputs for Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Three empirical models are derived with low, intermediate, and high degrees of economic rationality, namely, “garbage can,” incrementalism, and rational choice budgeting, respectively. The methods used are time series analyses on real disaggregated national government budget outputs for the post–World War II period for Canada, the United States, and the United Kingdom. There was some support found for budgetary incrementalism, and the most consistent support for rational choice budgeting. There was no support for garbage can budgeting.
A one-shot proof of Arrow’s theorem and the Gibbard–Satterthwaite theorem

This paper provides a simple and transparent proof of a new social choice impossibility theorem. The Gibbard–Satterthwaite theorem and Arrow’s impossibility theorem are straightforward corollaries.
Democracy without a Net? Separation of Powers and the Idea of Self-Sustaining Constitutional Constraints on Undemocratic Behavior

The United States Constitution is designed to achieve good government by relying on two distinct systems: a primary system that achieves good governance through democratic electoral accountability; and a set of self-sustaining structural backup systems designed for situations in which the democratic system fails, and which operate by limiting the ability of bad rulers to do serious harm to the public good. A key premise of this kind of dual structural arrangement is that effective backup systems must operate independently of primary democratic systems; because they are needed precisely when democratic mechanisms have failed, they cannot depend for their success on democratic modes of behavior. I argue that this view of the role of democracy in the constitutional structure is too narrow, and that the effect of democracy on the operation of constitutional systems cannot plausibly be confined to those specific subsystems intended to operate by overtly democratic means. Democracy is powerful enough to shape the institutional environment in ways that affect the operation not only of those systems designed to operate democratically, but also the operation of systems that are designed to operate independently of democratic influences. This helps to explain why the U.S. Constitution's structural backup systems have never worked as originally contemplated: democratic institutional norms, and associated modalities of democratic politics, have crowded out the behavior on which the stability of such structural systems by design depends.
Econometric analysis of multivariate realised QML: estimation of the covariation of equity prices under asynchronous trading

Estimating the covariance between assets using high frequency data is challenging due to market microstructure effects and asynchronous trading. In this paper we develop a multivariate realised quasi-likelihood (QML) approach, carrying out inference as if the observations arise from an asynchronously observed vector scaled Brownian model observed with error. Under stochastic volatility the resulting realised QML estimator is positive semi-definite, uses all available data, is consistent and asymptotically mixed normal. The quasi-likelihood is computed using a Kalman filter and optimised using a relatively simple EM algorithm which scales well with the number of assets. We derive the theoretical properties of the estimator and prove that it achieves the efficient rate of convergence. We show how to make itobtain the non-parametric efficiency bound for this problem. The estimator is also analysed usingMonte Carlo methods and applied to equity data with varying levels of liquidity.
Financial liberalization and the stability of currency pegs

Abstract This paper analyzes how the strategies of domestic firms borrowing abroad complicate the interaction between central banks and foreign exchange short sellers. If we define financial liberalization as the degree of freedom given to domestic firms to borrow abroad, we find that, in the early stages of financial liberalization, foreign borrowing does not affect the stability of the currency peg, but, in the advanced stages of financial liberalization, foreign borrowing destabilizes currency pegs. When this happens, we show that policies to curb currency short sellers have no effect. The paper thus formalizes the critical juncture where financial liberalization and currency pegs become incompatible policy goals.
China's Contentious Journalists: Reconceptualizing the Media

While scholars of both Chinese politics and contention have occasionally recognized the power of the media in shaping or suppressing protests, they have largely ignored the possibility that media workers themselves can be contentious actors. Despite a prominent Chinese government media crackdown, contentious action among China's newspaper journalists - including open letters, refusal to cover specific topics and even a strike - has become dramatically more visible. The actions of China's contentious journalists have implications for mainstream social movement theory and illuminate the importance of grievances in spurring contentious action.
On the Ruin of Age of Information in Augmented Reality over Wireless Terahertz (THz) Networks

Guaranteeing fresh and reliable information for augmented reality (AR) services is a key challenge to enable a real-time experience and sustain a high quality of physical experience (QoPE) for the users. In this paper, a terahertz (THz) cellular network is used to exchange rate-hungry AR content. For this network, guaranteeing an instantaneous low peak age of information (PAoI) is necessary to overcome the uncertainty stemming from the THz channel. In particular, a novel economic concept, namely, the risk of ruin is proposed to examine the probability of occurrence of rare, but extremely high PAoI that can jeopardize the operation of the AR service. To assess the severity of these hazards, the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the PAoI is derived for two different scheduling policies. This CDF is then used to find the probability of maximum severity of ruin PAoI. Furthermore, to provide long term insights about the AR content’s age, the average PAoI of the overall system is also derived. Simulation results show that an increase in the number of users will positively impact the PAoI in both the expected and worst-case scenarios. Meanwhile, an increase in the bandwidth reduces the average PAoI but leads to a decline in the severity of ruin performance. The results also show that a system with preemptive last come first served (LCFS) queues of limited size buffers have a better ruin performance (12% increase in the probability of guaranteeing a less severe PAoI while increasing the number of users), whereas first come first served (FCFS) queues of limited buffers lead to a better average PAoI performance (45% lower PAoI as we increase the bandwidth).
Conservatism in Accounting Part I: Explanations and Implications

This paper is the first in a two‐part series on conservatism in accounting. Part I examines alternative explanations for conservatism in accounting and their implications for accounting regulators....
Recent Developments in Monetary Policy Analysis: The Roles of Theory and Evidence

Both academic thinking about monetary economics and the practice of monetary policy have changed dramatically since 1971–3, when the rational expectations revolution was beginning and the Bretton Woods system was crumbling. The present paper considers whether the various changes that have taken place were influenced primarily by economic theory or by empirical evidence - or by a combination of the two. Monetary economics, like macroeconomics more generally, passed through the rational expectations period into one dominated by real business cycle (RBC) analysis, which denies monetary policy any significant role in the generation or the dampening of cyclical fluctuations in crucial real variables. Recently, however, the analysis of monetary policy by both academic and central bank economists has been increasingly conducted in small quantitative structural models that combine the optimizing aspect of RBC analysis with various assumptions implying real effects of monetary policy actions due to slow adjustment...
Cap and Trade Offsets: The Case for following RGGI’s Model Rule

The cap-and-trade of pollutants is often seen as the most politically acceptable form of regulating pollutants, such as carbon dioxide (CO2), as it is seen as the lowest cost alternative of regulation, and allows for innovative market responses within the regulated framework to lower costs. One of the regulation mechanisms that can be used to allow for these market innovations within a cap-and-trade market is inclusion of offsets into the market’s framework. The Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative Model Rule offset provisions use a standards based approach to offsets, addressing many of the potential issues with implementing an offsets program, providing an excellent model for developing offset provisions.
Respecting Foundation and Charity Autonomy: How Public is Private Philanthropy

From Colonial times Americans have debated the role of philanthropy and the charitable sector in our social and political economy. These debates, while they can never be definitively resolved, are a healthy reflection of the diversity and plurality of views about the relative roles of the governmental, business, and nonprofit sectors. Recent years, however, have seen a disturbing increase in legal proposals or demands by certain members of the public and the government to interfere with the governance, missions, strategies, and decision-making of foundations and other charities. The debate has included calls for legislation to limit the number or characteristics of directors serving on nonprofit boards and calls to subjugate charitable purposes as determined by donors and charity boards to broad mandates addressing social justice and other mission-oriented issues. Underlying much of these debates is the premise—stated or merely presumed—that foundation and charity assets are “public money” and that such entities therefore are subject to various public mandates or standards about their missions, operations, and decision-making. To the extent these assumptions are expressed, they are grounded on charities’ public purposes, on the authority of the state to recognize the legal status of nonprofit or-
Resolving the Dilemma of Minority Representation

This article proposes that recent work in philosophy on the issue of interpersonal utility comparisons may be used to help resolve a significant problem in minority representation. The creation of majority-minority districts has had the unintended consequence of forcing minority voting rights advocates to choose between increasing the number of minority officeholders and increasing the number of Democrats. This dilemma is, in part, due to the strict application of the one person, one vote standard. But work on the issue of interpersonal utility comparisons tells us that the one person, one vote standard is not the objective standard it purports to be; instead, it involves fairly straightforward normative judgments. The article, therefore, argues for relaxing the strict application of the one person, one vote standard in the context of minority vote dilution claims, which would allow us to numerically concentrate minority voting power through the creation of smaller majority-minority districts.
Sources of neo-nationalism and resistance in Japan

(1992). Sources of neo-nationalism and resistance in Japan. Journal of Contemporary Asia: Vol. 22, No. 2, pp. 207-223.
The coherence effect: Blending cold and hot cognitions

Previous research has shown that making complex judgments and decisions entails a mental reconstruction of the task in a way that increases the state of coherence between the emerging conclusion and its underlying attributes: The attributes that support the conclusion grow stronger, whereas the attributes that support the losing option weaken. This coherence effect is understood to occur bidirectionally, in that conclusions follow from the decision-maker's evaluation of the attributes, while the evaluations of the attributes shift to cohere with the emerging conclusion. The current studies were designed to extend the coherence effect to encompass cognitions that could be considered "hot," such as valence evaluations, motivation toward outcomes of events, liking and disliking of actors, and emotions toward actors. Study 1 found that evaluations of a complex social relationship were accompanied not only by supportive interpretations of the ambiguous facts, but also by concordant hot cognitions. Studies 2 through 4 included manipulations to demonstrate the spreading of coherence from cold to hot cognitions and in the opposite direction. We observed these effects following a manipulation of the facts (Study 2), a manipulation of participants' emotions toward the actor (Study 3), and a manipulation of participants' motivation toward the outcome of the case (Study 4). These results support the proposition that complex judgments and decisions are performed by coherence-based reasoning: a holistic, connectionist process that maximizes coherence among and between the myriad of factors involved in the tasks and the hot cognitive reactions to them. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved)
Taxing Reality: Rethinking Partnership Distributions

Partnerships play an increasingly vital role in the federal income tax. Yet partnership taxation is deeply flawed, with complicated provisions that strain the voluntary compliance mechanism on which all federal income tax relies. This article considers one of the most difficult challenges facing partnership taxation: the treatment of distributions. Distributions are ubiquitous transactions that transfer cash or property from a partnership to a partner. Although distributions vary dramatically in their purpose and the kind of property involved, their tax treatment follows a unitary approach. The principle of “nonrecognition” means that distributions do not produce any immediate tax consequences. This nonrecognition premise has caused great abuse and complexity, as partnerships have used distributions as tax shelter vehicles, and the government has responded with narrow anti-abuse “fixes” that are often counterproductive. Calls to reform these anti-abuse provisions have been a constant presence throughout a half-century of tax scholarship. This article argues that the existing scholarship largely misconstrues the problem with partnership distributions. The core difficulty is the nonrecognition premise at the system’s foundation, the very problem that particular anti-abuse provisions were designed to combat. Meaningful reform of partnership distributions thus requires a fundamental rethinking of nonrecognition and its role in partnership taxation. This article offers an alternative vision of partnership distributions, one without the imprint of nonrecognition. It reimagines partnership distributions from a recognition-based perspective, which would ground the tax treatment of these transactions in economic reality. Of particular importance are liquidating distributions that involve the complete or partial termination of a partner’s investment in the partnership. Consistent with their commercial substance, liquidating distributions should be treated as taxable exchanges in which the partner receives cash or property from the partnership in exchange for relinquishing her interest in the partnership and its underlying property. Under a recognition-based approach, partnership distributions would indeed look very different than they do today, simpler, more equitable, and more stable.
Inside the "Black Box" of sell-side financial analysts

Our objective is to penetrate the “black box” of sell-side financial analysts by providing new insights into the inputs analysts use and the incentives they face. We survey 365 analysts and conduct 18 follow-up interviews covering a wide range of topics, including the inputs to analysts’ earnings forecasts and stock recommendations, the value of their industry knowledge, the determinants of their compensation, the career benefits of Institutional Investor All-Star status, and the factors they consider indicative of high-quality earnings. One important finding is that private communication with management is a more useful input to analysts’ earnings forecasts and stock recommendations than their own primary research, recent earnings performance, and recent 10-K and 10-Q reports. Another notable finding is that issuing earnings forecasts and stock recommendations that are well below the consensus often leads to an increase in analysts’ credibility with their investing clients. We conduct cross-sectional analyses that highlight the impact of analyst and brokerage characteristics on analysts’ inputs and incentives. Our findings are relevant to investors, managers, analysts, and academic researchers.
The Usual Suspects? Productivity and Demand Shocks and Asia-Pacific Real Exchange Rates

A productivity-based model of East Asian relative prices and real exchange rates is tested using calculated productivity levels for China, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, and Thailand. Time-series regressions of the exchange rate on relative productivity ratios indicate such a relationship for Japan, Malaysia, and the Philippines (and Indonesia and Korea when oil prices are included). Panel regression provides slightly more encouraging results when the panel encompasses a subset of countries (Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, and the Philippines). Neither government spending nor the terms of trade appear to be important factors.
What Should a Correspondence Theory Be and Do

Correspondence theories are frequently either too vaguely expressed – “true statements correspond to the way things are in the world,” or implausible – “true statements mirror raw, mind-independent reality.” I address this problem by developing features and roles that ought to characterize what I call ldquo;modest” correspondence theories. Of special importance is the role of correspondence in directing our responses to cases of suspected non-factuality; lack of straightforward correspondence shows the need for, and guides us in our choice of, various kinds of reconstrual projects. This, I argue, is in contrast to the approaches suggested by deflationism and coherence, and thus modest correspondence theories are appropriately distinct from rivals
Tranching, CDS, and Asset Prices: How Financial Innovation Can Cause Bubbles and Crashes

We show how the timing of financial innovation might have contributed to the mortgage bubble and then to the crash of 2007–2009. We show why tranching and leverage first raised asset prices and why CDS lowered them afterward. This may seem puzzling, since it implies that creating a derivative tranche in the securitization whose payoffs are identical to the CDS will raise the underlying asset price, while the CDS outside the securitization lowers it. The resolution of the puzzle is that the CDS lowers the value of the underlying asset since it is equivalent to tranching cash. (JEL E32, E44, G01, G12, G13, G21).
On the Research Value of Large Games Natural Experiments in Norrath and Camelot

Coordination game theory is quite important to a number of literatures but has had very few direct empirical tests because that would require experimental participation by large numbers of people. Large games however can produce natural experiments: situations that through no intent of the designer offer controlled variations on a phenomenon of theoretical interest. Unlike any other social science research technology, such games provide for both sufficient participation numbers and careful control of experimental conditions, making them like Petri dishes for social science. This article examines two examples of games as Petri dishes for macro-level coordination effects: (a) the location of markets inside EverQuest and (b) the selection of battlefields inside Dark Age of Camelot.
Another Look at the Eurobarometer Surveys

The current proposal for a Common European Sales Law (CESL) makes a number of empirical claims in support of its argument that differences in contract law among Member States are stifling trade, and that CESL will address these barriers to cross-border trade. These empirical claims rest largely on citations to a number of Flash Eurobarometer surveys and other surveys of businesses and consumers. A closer look at these surveys reveals that the cited statistics do not support the claims that contract-law-related obstacles present special barriers to cross-border trade for small- and medium-sized enterprises and consumers. Instead, a more ambiguous picture emerges - one that may suggest reconsideration of several of the design features of CESL. I conclude that a more careful assessment of the empirical foundations for CESL (whether in its current or a revised form) is necessary.
Speculation and the Bond Market: An Empirical No-Arbitrage Framework

An affine no-arbitrage asset pricing framework is developed that allows for agents to have rational but heterogeneous expectations. The framework can match both bond yields and the observed dispers...
International Capital Markets and Non-Scale Growth

New growth models exhibit “scale effects,” meaning that variations in the levels of key variables exert permanent influences on growth rates. Such predictions run counter to recent empirical evidence. This paper extends a general non-scale model to the open economy. With complete capital markets, only output and capital, but not consumption, retain their non-scale structure. Introducing capital market imperfections, the model is again fully non-scale. Debt subsidies are analyzed and shown to provide capital flow reversals consistent with the recent experience in East Asia.
Fiscal Federalism and Macroeconomic Governance For Better or For Worse

In analyzing the institutional environment for macroeconomic management, the author discusses monetary policy, fiscal policy, and subnational borrowing. In analyzing the macroeconomic dimensions of securing an economic union, he discusses the regulatory environment, tax coordination, transfer payments and social insurance, intergovernmental fiscal transfers, and regional equity. Finally, he discusses the challenges of globalization and draws lessons from experience about fiscal reform in developing countries. Among them: 1) Monetary policy is best entrusted to an independent central bank with a mandate for price stability. 2) Fiscal rules accompanied by"gatekeeper"intergovernmental councils or committees provide a useful framework for fiscal discipline and coordination of fiscal policy. 3) The integrity and independence of the financial sector contribute to fiscal prudence in the public sector. 4) To ensure fiscal discipline, governments at all levels must be made to face the financial consequences of their decisions. 5) Societal norms and consensus about the roles of various levels of government and limits to their authority are vital to the success of decentralized decisionmaking. 6) Tax decentralization is a prerequisite for subnational access to credit markets. 7) Higher-level institutional assistance may be needed to finance local capital projects. 8) An internal common market is best preserved by constitutional guarantees. 9) Intergovernmental transfers in developing countries undermine fiscal discipline and accountability while building transfer dependencies that cause a slow economic stagnation of fiscally disadvantaged regions. 10) Periodic review of jurisdictional assignments is essential to realign responsibilities with changing economic and political realities. 11) Finally, and contrary to a common misconception, decentralized fiscal systems offer more potential improved macroeconomic governance than do centralized fiscal systems.
Communicating Decision Information to the Lay Risk Manager: A Consultant's Perspective

This article reports the personal reflections of an experienced consultant on how to communicate decision-related information to risk managers. The aim is to help them to make up their minds on an immediate or repetitive choice, to justify their actions to others, or to gather more information first. The information includes prescriptive decision analyses, factual risk assessments, value judgments, raw data, or personal observations. The communication may use the information alone or combine it with other available information. Also addressed are the role of decider judgment, layman language, macromodels, interactive communication, and assessment firmness. The author's perspective is based on 50 years of consulting to a variety of deciders and on two research projects. Keywords: risk management; communication; prescriptive decision analysis; personal judgment
Tales of tails: Jumps in currency markets

Abstract We investigate the predictability of jumps in currency markets and show the implications for carry trades. Formulating new currency jump analyses, we propose a general method to estimate the determinants of jump sizes and intensities at various frequencies. We employ a large panel of high-frequency data and identify significant predictive relationships between currency jumps and national characteristics. In addition, we find the patterns of intraday jumps (i.e., multiple currency jump clustering and time-of-day effects). Macroeconomic information releases in the United States, particularly FOMC announcements, lead to currency jumps. Using these jump predictors, investors can construct jump-robust carry trades to mitigate left-tail risks.
Farm Household Well-Being: Comparing Consumption- and Income-Based Measures

Household economic well-being can be gauged by the financial resources (income/ wealth) available to the household or by the standard of living enjoyed by household members (consumption). Based on responses to USDA’s annual Agricultural Resource Management Survey (ARMS), a joint effort by the Economic Research Service (ERS) and the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service, ERS has long published estimates of farm household income and wealth. This report presents, for the first time, estimates of consumption-based measures of well-being for farm households based on new questions in ARMS. The consumption measure provides a different perspective from income or wealth on farm households’ well-being relative to that of all U.S. households.
The unbalanced matching in a director market

I construct a intertemporal searching model ("take it or leave it oer") in a fric- tional directorship market to explain the unbalanced matching between the director and the …rm. In this model, potential candidates for outside directors and …rms have heterogenous (also, well ordered) quality levels. Also, both parties have strictly ordered preferences over the quality of counterpart from high levels to low levels. A candidate considers his quality ranking to compare the value of accepting a favorite oer at present to the value of waiting for successuful matching with a better oer in the future. My model suggests that that highly quali…ed candidates would be likely to be matched with bad (not too bad) …rms. The best candidate would be likely to go to the 150th ranked …rm over 250 …rms under the uniform distribution for the quality of the …rm, and go to the 140th ranked …rm under Gabaix and Landier (2006)'s extreme value distribution.
I Hear America Tweeting and Other Themes for a Virtual Polis: Rethinking Democracy in the Global InfoTech Age

ABSTRACT Are information technologies good for democracy? Could cyberspace be a more democratic “place” in the world? To explore these questions, this article juxtaposes the supposedly democratizing effects of information technologies against Walt Whitman's and John Dewey's idealized “aesthetic democracy,” a passionate relationship that embodies a public spirit toward oneself and one's fellow citizens. Although information technologies are often understood as a means to increase or deepen democracy, such claims equate democracy with a set of practices or forms, but the forms themselves are not inherently democratic. Aesthetic democracy, I argue, sheds light on the democratic pitfalls and possibilities of information technologies and cyberspace. This article provides a theory of aesthetic democracy for the cyber-environment by first exploring the difference between effects on democratic governance versus effects on democracy and then developing the concept of aesthetic democracy. The next section applies a...
Internal Corporate Governance, CEO Turnover, and Earnings Management

Abstract The likelihood and speed of forced CEO turnover – but not voluntary turnover – are positively related to a firm's earnings management. These patterns persist in tests that consider the effects of earnings restatements, regulatory enforcement actions, and the possible endogeneity of CEO turnover and earnings management. The relation between earnings management and forced turnover occurs both in firms with good and bad performance, and when the accruals work to inflate or deflate reported earnings. These results indicate that boards tend to act proactively to discipline managers who manage earnings aggressively, before the manipulations lead to costly external consequences.
Exchange Rate Expectations and the Risk Premium: Tests For a Cross- Section of 17 Currencies

Survey data on a broad cross section of 17 currencies are used to determine whether the forward discount moves primarily in response to changes in expectations of depreciation, or in the risk premium. We find that, in contrast to earlier studies involving developed country exchange rates, variation in the risk premium is a quantitatively significant factor in movements of the forward discount. However, changes in expectations also have a substantial effect.
Stock market fluctuations and the business cycle

This paper explores the dynamic relationship between stock market fluctuations and the business cycle. Presumably, stock market movements reflect positions taken by market participants based on their assessment about the current state of the economy. Given the forward-looking behavior of stock market investors, this paper explores the possibility of predicting business cycle turning points using promptly available financial variables. Stock market fluctuations and business cycles are represented by nonlinear dynamic factors at the monthly frequency. The proposed model generates predictions of business cycle turning points using the business cycle factor, and anticipation of these predicted turns using the stock market factor. The findings indicate that the extracted stock market factor is found to be a leading indicator of the state of the business cycle and can be used to anticipate turning points in real time.
Executive Compensation Incentives Contingent on Long-Term Accounting Performance

The percentage of S&P 500 firms using multiyear accounting-based performance (MAP) incentives for CEOs increased from 16.5% in 1996 to 43.3% in 2008. The use and design of MAP incentives depend on the signal quality of accounting versus stock performance, shareholder horizons, strategic imperatives, and board independence. After the technology bubble, option expensing, and the publicity of option backdating, firms increasingly use stock-based MAP plans to replace options, resulting in changes in pay structure, but not in pay level. While firms respond to the evolving contracting environment, they consider firm characteristics and shareholder preferences and do not blindly follow the trend.
The corporate choice between public debt, bank loans, traditional private debt placements, and 144A debt issues

The main purpose of this study is to examine the determinants of the corporate choice between different forms of debt financing. By analyzing the most comprehensive sample of US corporate debt issues to date, I find that firms that issue 144A debt have significantly lower credit quality and higher information asymmetry than firms that issue traditional non-bank private debt. Further, the study shows that traditional private placements, rather than bank loans, are the favorite private debt source for firms with good credit quality. I also show that the firm characteristics of traditional private debt issuers have significantly changed after 1990 through to 2003. My results suggest the following pecking order of debt choices which is conditional on credit quality. In other words, high credit quality firms prefer public bond offerings and small firms, with good credit quality, are more likely to issue traditional private debt. A large group of firms characterized by moderate credit quality make extensive use of bank loans and poor credit quality firms preferentially issue 144A debt.
STATE‐DEPENDENT PREFERENCES AND FUTURES HEDGING: THE EFFECTS OF BASIS RISK

. This note incorporates basis risk into the futures hedging decision-making problem when the hedger has a state-dependent preference. It is shown that, in an unbiased futures market, a partial hedge is optimal when the marginal utilities in different states are moderately close to each other. Conditions for a Texas hedge or an overhedge are provided. Finally, it is demonstrated that basis risk always reduces the futures trading volume.
Knocked Out: The Once and Future Demise of Football

This paper will analyze one strategic threat to the National Football League (NFL). Football is king. Football is the most popular sport in America. The NFL is the most profitable professional sports league in America. From the sharp increase in fantasy football participation to television ratings, the NFL has enjoyed unparalleled success recently. This paper will argue that significant market forces will threaten the NFL. This paper acknowledges the many recent public relations difficulties the NFL has faced. Player conduct ranging from domestic abuse to performance enhancing drug use has created a difficult media environment. Further, NFL owners have faced difficulties ranging from drug addiction to accusation of complicity when handling player discipline issues. This paper will argue that while those things are damaging in the short-term they do not represent a strategic threat to the sport itself. This paper will argue that the recent NFL Players’ Association lawsuit against the league for damages caused by concussions will lead to very serious difficulties for the sport itself. The lawsuit has been settled for hundreds of millions of dollars. This paper will argue, however, that the lawsuit itself is not a grave threat to football. This paper will argue that the strategic threat revealed in the lawsuit is subtle. This paper will argue that increasing insurance costs – driven by threats of future lawsuits – will create changes to the current marketplace for football that could threaten the long-term viability of organized football. This paper acknowledges the inherent difficulty of predicting future events. Therefore, this paper uses argument by analogy to show how increasing insurance costs have affected popular, youth-oriented activities previously. While this paper does acknowledge there may be some important differences between the analogues selected and football, this paper argues that the insurance mechanism will create significant supply problems that will hamper the sustained popularity of the sport.
Pringle: Legal Reasoning, Text, Purpose and Teleology

The CJEU's judgment in Pringle saved the European Stability Mechanism from invalidity. The result was unsurprising, given that the contrary conclusion would have precipitated further crisis in the financial markets. The judgment is nonetheless highly interesting and not merely for those concerned with this aspect of EU law. This is because it contains much that is of more general relevance for the very nature of legal reasoning, and the blend of text, purpose and teleology that informs legal discourse. This article addresses two of the central claims made in the case. The first was that the ESM was in reality concerned with monetary policy and not economic policy and thus fell within the exclusive competence of the EU, with the consequence that the Member States had no capacity to make the ESM. The second and most important aspect of the applicant's argument was that the ESM infringed the rule against bail outs contained in the Lisbon Treaty. The CJEU also rejected this argument. It correctly identified the rationale underlying the no bail out rule, this being to prevent diminution in the incentive for financial probity by the Member States. The Court then concluded that the terms of ESM assistance entailed no such diminution. This conclusion is however problematic as will be seen in the article, and the reality is that result in Pringle can only really be sustained by the addition of a teleogical dimension to the Court's reasoning. A third dimension to the case concerned the ability of the EU institutions to participate in the ESM. Reasons of space mean that this is not examined in any detail in this article. In brief, the CJEU applied prior rulings to the effect that EU institutions are able to participate in agreements made outside the EU legal framework, provided only that they are compatible with EU law, and that the powers accorded to the EU institutions do not alter the essential character of the powers conferred on those institutions by the Treaties. The application of this rule may well have been defensible in relation to the ESM, but it nonetheless raises more general issues of principle and legitimacy that have not been explored. A subsequent article will consider the foundational, procedural and substantive issues posed by this rule.
The constitutional political economy of Gordon Tullock

This paper surveys Gordon Tullock’s contributions to constitutional political economy. His first major contribution was his joint project with James Buchanan on liberal constitutional design. The explicitly constitutional analysis of The Calculus was followed by a series of papers and books that focused on the use of resources in conflict, including Tullock’s contributions to the anarchy and rent-seeking literatures. Tullock also pioneered the rational choice-based analysis of dictatorships and the relative merits of alternative legal systems, topics that has been neglected until fairly recently by most scholars working in the CPE tradition.
And I Don't Care What It Is: Religious Neutrality in American Law

The American law of freedom of religion is in trouble, because growing numbers of critics, including a near-majority of the Supreme Court, are ready to cast aside the ideal of religious neutrality. My new book, Defending American Religious Neutrality, defends the claim, which unfortunately has become an audacious one, that American religious neutrality is coherent and attractive. This article is adapted from the book’s introduction, and briefly describes its claims.
Information Famine, Due Process, and the Revised Class Action Rule: When Should Courts Provide a Second Opportunity to Opt Out?

In appropriate circumstances, judges overseeing class litigation should exercise their discretion to provide class members a second chance to opt out at the time when settlement terms are known. Such an opportunity comports with the plaintiff's traditional due process right to exert control over her claim and simultaneously recognizes the need to efficiently resolve large numbers of similar claims. Judges should provide a second opt-out opportunity when two factors are present: (1) when class members did not have sufficient information to make an informed choice by the opt-out deadline and (2) when a significant number of the claims would be economically viable in individual litigation. When both of these factors are present, a class member's interest in controlling her claim will normally outweigh the efficiency gains that might be achieved by denying class members a second opportunity to opt out.
Does shareholder approval requirement of equity compensation plans matter

Abstract This paper studies the impact of the 2003 SEC Regulation requiring shareholder approval of all equity-based executive compensation plans on executive compensation policies and practices at S&P 500 firms. Following the 2003 Regulation, firms with shareholder approved equity plans in place or those with strong performance, while not those with non-approved plans or weak performance, increase their equity compensation proposal submission activity. The quality of equity compensation proposals improves in the after-regulation period, and shareholders exhibit greater scrutiny and monitoring of executive compensation through increased voting rights. We find a decline in the equity pay component while an increase in the cash component of total executive compensation after the 2003 Regulation and also provide evidence that the 2003 Regulation contributes to this change in compensation structure.
Toward a Positive Theory of Disclosure Regulation: In Search of Institutional Foundations

ABSTRACT: This article develops a theory of standard-setting in which accounting standards emerge endogenously from an institutional bargaining process. It provides a unified framework with investment and voluntary disclosure to examine the links between regulatory institutions and accounting choice. We show that disclosure rules tend to be more comprehensive when controlled by a self-regulated professional organization than when they are under the direct oversight of elected politicians. These institutions may not implement standards desirable to diversified investors and, when voluntary disclosures are possible, allowing choice between competing standards increases market value over a single uniform standard. Several new testable hypotheses are also offered to explain differences in accounting regulations. JEL Classifications: C78; D02; D04; D71; D72; D79; G28; L51; M41; M48.
Relationship admitting families of candidates

A central theme in social choice is to determine when must there be a relationship among a group's sincere election rankings of several different subsets of candidates. This issue is completely resolved here for positional voting methods. Namely, necessary and sufficient conditions are derived for a family of subsets of candidates to determine when there is a choice of positional voting methods so that there are relationships among the election rankings. The same issue is resolved for a related family of social choice mappings. Then, in part, these necessary and sufficient conditions are used i) to analyze sequential voting procedures, ii) to show how to create new classes of axiomatic representations for social choice mappings that uniquely characterize the Borda Count, and iii) to determine the limits of indeterminacy for positional voting election outcomes.
The Darfur Commission as a Model for Future Responses to Crisis Situations

The various special procedures so far set up by the Commission on Human Rights (CHR) to investigate serious violations of human rights are very different from what can be achieved by a commission of inquiry. There is almost no comparison in terms of the scale of resources, the expertise mobilized, the amount of detail contained in the Commission`s Report, the precision and weight of the legal analysis, and the consequent power of the final product to galvanize both public opinion and inter-governmental action. The Darfur Commission may also serve to expand the bridge being built between the Commission of Human Rights and the Security Council (SC). The practice of appointing commissions of inquiry has immense potential in that it can provide the type of specialist input necessary if the human rights machinery and the SC are to form part of a continuum. Commissions of inquiry reports may contribute to promoting transparency and accountability in the work of the SC, since the Council, when determining whether or not to take action in a human rights situation, has to respond to a carefully documented and a well argued analytical report. Finally, the establishment of such commissions to evaluate whether or not a situation warrants referral to the ICC provides an appropriate filtering mechanism before the Council takes a decision.
From Expert Administration to Accountability Network: A New Paradigm for Comparative Administrative Law

Notwithstanding the radically changed landscape of contemporary administrative governance, the categories that guide comparative administrative law and that determine what will be compared remain similar to those used at the founding of the discipline in the late 1800s. These categories are rooted in confidence in an expert bureaucracy to accomplish public purposes and are mainly twofold— administrative organization and judicial review. This outdated model has limited the ability of comparative law to engage with contemporary debates on the administrative state, which instead display considerable skepticism of public administration and are premised on achieving the public good through a plural accountability network of public and private actors. This Article seeks to correct the anachronism by reframing comparative administrative law as an accountability network of rules and procedures designed to embed public administration and civil servants in their liberal democratic societies: accountability to elected officials, organized interests, the courts, and the general public. Based on this paradigm, the Article compares American and European administrative law in a global context. Among the many differences explored are parliamentary versus presidential political control, pluralist versus neo-corporatist forms of self-regulation and public-private collaboration, judicial review focused on fundamental rights versus policy rationality, and reliance on ombudsmen in lieu of courts. The Article concludes with a number of suggestions for how comparative law can speak to current debates on reforming administrative governance.
Outcomes of On-Line Financial Education for Chronically Ill Rural Women.

This research was part of a larger longitudinal study of chronically ill rural women to determine if computer technology could be effective in allowing the women to take control of their own well-being, including finances. The current study examined whether chronically ill rural women can effectively use on-line personal finance educational programming, as measured by a financial literacy assessment pretest compared to a post-test assessment consisting of the same questions in the pretest. The women were randomly divided into three groups: (a) an intensive intervention group where participants had an on-line series of lessons on finances, access to experts, and a social support discussion board; (b) an intermediate intervention group where participants had only the on-line lessons; and (c) a control group. Results indicate the intensive and the intermediate intervention strategies are effective compared to the control group in producing a significant increase between pre-test and posttest scores.
Comparing Measures of Overtime Across BLS Surveys

Overtime pay constitutes an important source of income for many workers, and knowing how much overtime is worked is crucial for understanding labor market regulations. Unfortunately, the two main Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) surveys containing information on overtime - the Current Population Survey (CPS) and the Establishment Survey (ES) - yield conflicting measures of average weekly overtime hours. While a longer time-series of ES estimates is available, the CPS estimate is likely to be more reliable.