Comparison of the Performance of Common Measures of Weight Regain After Bariatric Surgery for Association With Clinical Outcomes.

Importance Estimates of weight regain following bariatric surgery vary widely. Objective To describe weight regain after reaching nadir weight following Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB) surgery and compare weight regain measures for association with outcomes. Design, Setting, and Participants Prospective cohort study of 2458 adults who underwent bariatric surgery at 10 hospitals in 6 US cities between March 2006 and April 2009. Assessments were conducted within 30 days’ presurgery, at 6 months’ postsurgery, and then annually until January 2015. Of the 1703 participants who underwent RYGB surgery, 1406 (83%) were followed up for 5 years or longer and had 5 or more weight measurements (excluding those who died or underwent surgical reversal). Exposures Weight regain assessed by 5 continuous measures (weight in kilograms, body mass index [BMI], percentage of presurgery weight, percentage of nadir weight, and percentage of maximum weight lost) and 8 dichotomous measures (per established thresholds) were compared in relation to clinical outcomes based on statistical significance, magnitude of association, and model fit. Main Outcomes and Measures Progression of diabetes, hyperlipidemia, and hypertension and declines in physical and mental health–related quality of life and satisfaction with surgery. Results Among the 1406 participants who underwent RYGB surgery, the median age was 47 years (25th-75th percentile, 38-55 years) and the median BMI was 46.3 (25th-75th percentile, 42.3-51.8) prior to surgery. Most participants were female (80.3%) and white (85.6%). The median follow-up was 6.6 years (25th-75th percentile, 5.9-7.0 years). The median percentage of maximum weight loss was 37.4% (25th-75th percentile, 31.6%-43.3%) of presurgery weight and occurred a median of 2.0 years after RYGB surgery (25th-75th percentile, 1.0-3.2 years). The rate of weight regain was highest during the first year after reaching nadir weight, but weight regain continued to increase throughout follow-up (range, a median of 9.5% of maximum weight lost [25th-75th percentile, 4.7%-17.2%] to 26.8% of maximum weight lost [25th-75th percentile, 16.7%-41.5%] 1 to 5 years after reaching nadir weight). The percentage of participants who regained weight depended on threshold (eg, 5 years after nadir weight, 43.6% regained ≥5 BMI points; 50.2% regained ≥15% of nadir weight; and 67.3% regained ≥20% of maximum weight lost). Compared with other continuous weight regain measures, the percentage of maximum weight lost had the strongest association and best model fit for all outcomes except hyperlipidemia, which had a slightly stronger association with BMI. Of the dichotomous measures, 20% or greater of maximum weight lost performed better or similarly with most of the outcomes, and was the second best measure for hyperlipidemia (after ≥10 kg of weight) and hypertension (after ≥10% of maximum weight lost). Conclusions and Relevance Among a large cohort of adults who underwent RYGB surgery, weight regain quantified as percentage of maximum weight lost performed better for association with most clinical outcomes than the alternatives examined. These findings may inform standardizing the measurement of weight regain in studies of bariatric surgery.