Speed, Space and Sustainability (3S) in Transportation Amid COVID-19 Crisis

This paper provides an assessment of the impact COVID-19 is having across various transportation modes with regards to mobility (speed), social distancing (space) and congestion (sustainability). There cannot be a better time to study the network inter-dependencies of modes, societal expectations and social distancing mandate impacts as the COVID-19 evolves and fades. Various aspects of mobility changes are investigated for networks of public transportation systems (such as bus and rail), highway traffic (for passenger cars and trucks) and ride-sharing (such as Uber, Lyft and carpool) resulting from human behavioral changes and safety from getting infected. This research has been carried out for three possible scenarios of analysis – 1) COVID-19 is on an upgrade or is at its peak, travel restrictions and stay-at-home order are in place, 2) COVID-19 begins to show signs of fading, travel restrictions is partially eased with guidelines on social distancing, non-essential businesses open, and 3) COVID-19 spread is negligible and isolated, vaccine/cure found, travel restrictions eased for public, businesses and commercial establishments resume normal work with inherent social distancing practices in place. Basic simulation of these scenarios are carried out for a select area of 1 sq. mile in Los Angeles. Preliminary analysis show that the bus and rail systems could continue to experience low ridership transitioning from scenario 2 to scenario 3. New congestion points (and emission hot-spots) could appear on freeways and highways that are close to office buildings and employment centers (that have nearby transit stops) at the end of scenario 2. Congestion at these locations would intensify during and after scenario 3. This would occur due to massive mode shifts from public transport to personal/private vehicles. Mobility (speed) improves for highway network transitioning from scenario 2 to 3 but not after scenario 3. Speed or mobility attained by public transit remains same across scenarios 2 and 3 and afterwards. Demands for ride-sharing modes could go up enormously during and after scenarios 2 and 3. Psychological models that underline human behavioral aspects of travel show telecommuting or flexible travel schedules can become a new norm for various professionals during and after scenario 3. The commuter traffic to office buildings, especially those from the technology industries, that never had a public transit station or stop nearby before, will experience drop in parking demands resulting from telecommute patterns during and after scenario 3. This would occur since private car would remain the most preferred and used mode before and after COVID-19 crisis. A preliminary analysis of scenario 1 shows that had all stores and businesses (particularly dining and recreational) were open 24-hours, instead of business-as-usual 10 to 12 hours, prominence in after-hours travel and night driving would have increased. This would have occurred due to flexibility in travel times and thus, unknowingly adhering to social distancing. Economically, this would have kept some businesses afloat without requiring to shutter.