Public Opinion du Jour: An Examination of the Spiral of Silence

This study investigates the spiral of silence theory using perceived vote outcomes as well as actual vote behaviors. The first major hypothesis-that those who see their position as gaining support will be more likely to discuss while those who see their position as losing support will be less likely to discuss-was supported by the data. Some support was also found for the hypothesis that individuals perceiving support for a certain candidate would be more likely to express a preference for the candidate. Results also seemed to justify the Noelle-Neumann distinction between the resistant hardcore and other types of citizens. The relative independence of perception of opinion judgments from own preferences also was investigated and support was found for this difference. Carroll J. Glynn is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Communication Arts, Cornell University. Jack M. McLeod is Baier-Bascom Professor in the School of Journalism and Mass Communication, University of Wisconsin. Public Opinion Quarterly Vol. 48:731-740 C) by the Trustees of Columbia University Published by Elsevier Science Publishing Co., Inc. 0033-362X/84/0048-731/$2.50 This content downloaded from 157.55.39.93 on Wed, 13 Jul 2016 06:04:00 UTC All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms 732 CARROLL J. GLYNN AND JACK M. MCLEOD inclined to adopt a more reserved attitude and remain silent. NoelleNeumann labels this process the "spiral of silence." The basic premise of Noelle-Neumann's work is that through social interaction, people influence each other's willingness to express opinions. That is, she believes that to the individual "not isolating himself is more important than his own judgment" (Noelle-Neumann, 1977). Taylor (1982) states that the four variables in Noelle-Neumann's research are: "one's opinion on an issue; one's perception of the predominant public opinion; one's assessment of the likely future course of public opinion; and one's willingness to support one's opinion with action, verbal statements, or other signs of commitment." One's opinion and one's assessment of the predominant public opinion are both assumed to influence one's judgment of the future course of opinion. Willingness to express one's opinion depends on an interaction between one's opinion (majority or minority) and one's perception of the future trend in public opinion. We investigated Noelle-Neumann's spiral of silence theory in the present study, using perceived vote outcomes as well as actual vote behaviors. Noelle-Neumann states that the tendency for some individuals to speak up and for others to remain silent starts a "spiraling process" which increasingly establishes one opinion as the prevailing one. In addition, she notes that in relation to election campaigns, this spiraling process of opinion expression (measured with the question "Who do you think will win the election?") can lead, in the final phase of the campaign, to an increase in the number of supporters of a political party and "thus the decisive margin for the election victory" can become obvious (NoelleNeumann, 1977:148). Improved measures (described below) from the 1980 presidential election campaign were used to operationalize some of Noelle-Neumann's major variables in order to study, more thoroughly, some of the basic premises of the spiral of silence. Two major hypotheses were tested and the following predictions made: Hi: Those individuals who believe there is a trend in support of their position are more likely to express their opinions publicly than are those who do not. H2: The more individuals see a candidate as winning an election, the more likely they will be to express preference for that candidate. In addition, the present study attempted to investigate a briefly mentioned distinction in the Noelle-Neumann spiral of silence theory-the "hardcore" opinion holders. Noelle-Neumann (1974:48) states that the hardcore are "not prepared to conform, to change their opinions, or even to be silent in the face of public opinion." Yet, Noelle-Neumann does not employ this concept when analyzing her data. In the present study, the This content downloaded from 157.55.39.93 on Wed, 13 Jul 2016 06:04:00 UTC All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms PUBLIC OPINION AND THE SPIRAL OF SILENCE 733 hardcore variable is investigated as a control variable, as a main effect, and as an interaction term. In this way it is possible to analyze NoelleNeumann's assumption that hardcore individuals are not influenced by the prevailing "climate of public opinion" or by the "spiral of silence" in the same way as the majority of individuals.