cssi/SciSciGPT-SciSciNet huggingface dataset:
On Predictability of Rare Events Leveraging Social Media: A Machine Learning Perspective

Information extracted from social media streams has been leveraged to forecast the outcome of a large number of real-world events, from political elections to stock market fluctuations. An increasing amount of studies demonstrates how the analysis of social media conversations provides cheap access to the wisdom of the crowd. However, extents and contexts in which such forecasting power can be effectively leveraged are still unverified at least in a systematic way. It is also unclear how social-media-based predictions compare to those based on alternative information sources. To address these issues, here we develop a machine learning framework that leverages social media streams to automatically identify and predict the outcomes of soccer matches. We focus in particular on matches in which at least one of the possible outcomes is deemed as highly unlikely by professional bookmakers. We argue that sport events offer a systematic approach for testing the predictive power of social media conversations, and allow to compare such power against the rigorous baselines set by external sources. Despite such strict baselines, our framework yields above 8% marginal profit when used to inform simple betting strategies. The system is based on real-time sentiment analysis and exploits data collected immediately before the game start, allowing for bets informed by its predictions. We first discuss the rationale behind our approach, then describe the learning framework, its prediction performance and the return it provides as compared to a set of betting strategies. To test our framework we use both historical Twitter data from the 2014 FIFA World Cup games (10% sample), and real-time Twitter data (full stream) collected by monitoring the conversations about all soccer matches of the four major European tournaments (FA Premier League, Serie A, La Liga, and Bundesliga), and the 2014 UEFA Champions League, during the period between October, 25th 2014 and November, 26th 2014.
r-PROCESS LANTHANIDE PRODUCTION AND HEATING RATES IN KILONOVAE

r-Process nucleosynthesis in material ejected during neutron star mergers may lead to radioactively powered transients called kilonovae. The timescale and peak luminosity of these transients depend on the composition of the material after nuclear burning ceases, which determines the local heating rate from nuclear decays and the opacity. Kasen et al. (2013, ApJ, 774, 25) and Tanaka & Hotokezaka (2013, ApJ, 775, 113) pointed out that lanthanides can drastically increase the opacity in these outflows. We use the new general-purpose nuclear reaction network SkyNet to carry out a parameter study of r-process nucleosynthesis for a range of initial electron fractions Y_e, initial specific entropies s, and expansion timescales τ. We find that the ejecta is lanthanide-free for Y_e ≳ 0.22−0.30, depending on s and τ. The heating rate is insensitive to s and τ, but certain, larger values of Ye lead to reduced heating rates, due to individual nuclides dominating the heating. With a simplified gray radiative transport scheme in spherical symmetry, we estimate the luminosity, time, and effective temperature at the peak of the light curves. We find that the luminosity peaks much earlier, at about a day in the lanthanide-free cases compared to a week in the lanthanide-rich cases. The heating rate does not change much as the ejecta becomes lanthanide-free with increasing Y_e, but the light curve peak becomes about an order of magnitude brighter because it peaks much earlier when the heating rate is larger. We also provide parametric fits for the heating rates between 0.1 and 100 days, and we provide a simple fit in Y_e, s, and τ to estimate whether the ejecta is lanthanide-rich or not.
Privacy Amplification by Iteration

Many commonly used learning algorithms work by iteratively updating an intermediate solution using one or a few data points in each iteration. Analysis of differential privacy for such algorithms often involves ensuring privacy of each step and then reasoning about the cumulative privacy cost of the algorithm. This is enabled by composition theorems for differential privacy that allow releasing of all the intermediate results. In this work, we demonstrate that for contractive iterations, not releasing the intermediate results strongly amplifies the privacy guarantees. We describe several applications of this new analysis technique to solving convex optimization problems via noisy stochastic gradient descent. For example, we demonstrate that a relatively small number of non-private data points from the same distribution can be used to close the gap between private and non-private convex optimization. In addition, we demonstrate that we can achieve guarantees similar to those obtainable using the privacy-amplification-by-sampling technique in several natural settings where that technique cannot be applied.
Vacuum energy: If not now, then when?

We review the cosmological evidence for a low matter density universe and a cosmological constant or dynamical vacuum energy and address the cosmolog$ coincidence problem: why is the matter density about one-half the vacuum energy {\em now}. This is reasonble, following the anthropic argument of Efstathiou and of Martel, Schapiro & Weinberg.
Constancy of generalized Hodge–Tate weights of a local system

Sen attached to each -adic Galois representation of a -adic field a multiset of numbers called generalized Hodge–Tate weights. In this paper, we discuss a rigidity of these numbers in a geometric family. More precisely, we consider a -adic local system on a rigid analytic variety over a -adic field and show that the multiset of generalized Hodge–Tate weights of the local system is constant. The proof uses the -adic Riemann–Hilbert correspondence by Liu and Zhu, a Sen–Fontaine decompletion theory in the relative setting, and the theory of formal connections. We also discuss basic properties of Hodge–Tate sheaves on a rigid analytic variety.
A removability theorem for Sobolev functions and detour sets

We study the removability of compact sets for continuous Sobolev functions. In particular, we focus on sets with infinitely many complementary components, called “detour sets”, which resemble the Sierpinski gasket. The main theorem is that if $$K \subset \mathbb {R}^n$$ is a detour set and its complementary components are sufficiently regular, then K is $$W^{1,p}$$ -removable for $$p>n$$ . Several examples and constructions of sets where the theorem applies are given, including the Sierpinski gasket, Apollonian gaskets, and Julia sets.
Planar graphical models which are easy

We describe a rich family of binary variables statistical mechanics models on a given planar graph which are equivalent to Gaussian Grassmann graphical models (free fermions) defined on the same graph. Calculation of the partition function (weighted counting) for such a model is easy (of polynomial complexity) as it is reducible to evaluation of a Pfaffian of a matrix of size equal to twice the number of edges in the graph. In particular, this approach touches upon holographic algorithms of Valiant and utilizes the gauge transformations discussed in our previous works.
Practical Weak-lensing Shear Measurement with Metacalibration

Metacalibration is a recently introduced method to accurately measure weak gravitational lensing shear using only the available imaging data, without need for prior information about galaxy properties or calibration from simulations. The method involves distorting the image with a small known shear, and calculating the response of a shear estimator to that applied shear. The method was shown to be accurate in moderate-sized simulations with galaxy images that had relatively high signal-to-noise ratios, and without significant selection effects. In this work we introduce a formalism to correct for both shear response and selection biases. We also observe that for images with relatively low signal-to-noise ratios, the correlated noise that arises during the metacalibration process results in significant bias, for which we develop a simple empirical correction. To test this formalism, we created large image simulations based on both parametric models and real galaxy images, including tests with realistic point-spread functions. We varied the point-spread function ellipticity at the five-percent level. In each simulation we applied a small few-percent shear to the galaxy images. We introduced additional challenges that arise in real data, such as detection thresholds, stellar contamination, and missing data. We applied cuts on the measured galaxy properties to induce significant selection effects. Using our formalism, we recovered the input shear with an accuracy better than a part in a thousand in all cases.
Stellar Radial Velocities in the Old Open Cluster M67 (NGC 2682). I. Memberships, Binaries, and Kinematics

(Abridged) We present results from 13776 radial-velocity (RV) measurements of 1278 candidate members of the old (4 Gyr) open cluster M67 (NGC 2682). The measurements are the results of a long-term survey that includes data from seven telescopes with observations for some stars spanning over 40 years. For narrow-lined stars, RVs are measured with precisions ranging from about 0.1 to 0.8 km/s. The combined stellar sample reaches from the brightest giants in the cluster down to about 4 magnitudes below the main-sequence turnoff (V = 16.5), covering a mass range of about 1.34 MSun to 0.76 MSun. Spatially, the sample extends to a radius of 30 arcmin (7.4 pc in projection at a distant of 850 pc or 6-7 core radii). We find M67 to have a mean RV of +33.64 km/s (with an internal precision of +/- 0.03 km/s). For stars with >=3 measurements, we derive RV membership probabilities and identify RV variables, finding 562 cluster members, 142 of which show significant RV variability. We use these cluster members to construct a color-magnitude diagram and identify a rich sample of stars that lie far from the standard single star isochrone, including the well-known blue stragglers, sub-subgiants and yellow giants. These exotic stars have a binary frequency of (at least) 80%, more than three times that detected for stars in the remainder of the sample. We confirm that the cluster is mass segregated, finding the binaries to be more centrally concentrated than the single stars in our sample at the 99.8% confidence level. The blue stragglers are centrally concentrated as compared to the solar-type main-sequence single stars in the cluster at the 99.7% confidence level. Accounting for both measurement precision and undetected binaries, we derive a RV dispersion in M67 of 0.59 +0.07 -0.06 km/s, which yields a virial mass for the cluster of 2100 +610 -550 MSun. WIYN Open Cluster Study. LXVII.
Maximizing Simulated Tropical Cyclone Intensity With Action Minimization

Direct computer simulation of intense tropical cyclones (TCs) in weather models is limited by computational expense. Intense TCs are rare and have small-scale structures, making it difficult to produce large ensembles of storms at high resolution. Further, models often fail to capture the process of rapid intensification, which is a distinguishing feature of many intense TCs. Understanding rapid intensification is especially important in the context of global warming, which may increase the frequency of intense TCs. To better leverage computational resources for the study of rapid intensification, we introduce an action minimization algorithm applied to the WRF and WRFPLUS models. Action minimization nudges the model into forming more intense TCs than it otherwise would; it does so via the maximum likelihood path in a stochastic formulation of the model, thereby allowing targeted study of intensification mechanisms. We apply action minimization to simulations of Hurricanes Danny (2015) and Fred (2009) at 6 km resolution to demonstrate that the algorithm consistently intensifies TCs via physically plausible pathways. We show an approximately ten-fold computational savings using action minimization to study the tail of the TC intensification distribution. Further, for Hurricanes Danny and Fred, action minimization produces perturbations that preferentially reduce low-level shear as compared to upper-level shear, at least above a threshold of approximately $4 \mathrm{\ m \ s^{-1}}$. We also demonstrate that asymmetric, time-dependent patterns of heating can cause significant TC intensification beyond symmetric, azimuthally-averaged heating and find a regime of non-linear response to asymmetric heating that has not been extensively studied in previous work.
Is silicene the next graphene

This article reviews silicene, a relatively new allotrope of silicon, which can also be viewed as the silicon version of graphene. Graphene is a two-dimensional material with unique electronic properties qualitatively different from those of standard semiconductors such as silicon. While many other two-dimensional materials are now being studied, our focus here is solely on silicene. We first discuss its synthesis and the challenges presented. Next, a survey of some of its physical properties is provided. Silicene shares many of the fascinating properties of graphene, such as the so-called Dirac electronic dispersion. The slightly different structure, however, leads to a few major differences compared to graphene, such as the ability to open a bandgap in the presence of an electric field or on a substrate, a key property for digital electronics applications. We conclude with a brief survey of some of the potential applications of silicene.
Non-local linear-response functions for thermal transport computed with equilibrium molecular-dynamics simulation

We establish an approach to compute linear-response functions to elucidate heat waves and non-local thermal transport. The theory is able to describe the response of a system to external heat sources that are nonuniform in space and time. The response functions are computed using equilibrium molecular-dynamics simulations of an Ar crystal modeled using the standard Lennard–Jones potential. It is shown that for low temperatures and short length scales, transport can be partially or even completely ballistic, with the response primarily limited by the group velocity of lattice waves. By contrast, at longer length scales and higher temperatures, the response functions correspond more closely to diffusive transport characteristic of Fourier’s law. It is also shown how the effective thermal conductivity can be determined in a partially ballistic regime. The results demonstrate the known reduction in the effective thermal conductivity observed when system dimensions are smaller than the mean-free path for lattice waves. Finally, we show how the determination of relevant response functions can be used to model heating of a crystal without requiring additional atomic-scale simulations. Differences between computed results and predictions from Fourier’s law represent wave-like, partially ballistic transport.
Uncertainty Estimation and Sample Selection for Crowd Counting

We present a method for image-based crowd counting, one that can predict a crowd density map together with the uncertainty values pertaining to the predicted density map. To obtain prediction uncertainty, we model the crowd density values using Gaussian distributions and develop a convolutional neural network architecture to predict these distributions. A key advantage of our method over existing crowd counting methods is its ability to quantify the uncertainty of its predictions. We illustrate the benefits of knowing the prediction uncertainty by developing a method to reduce the human annotation effort needed to adapt counting networks to a new domain. We present sample selection strategies which make use of the density and uncertainty of predictions from the networks trained on one domain to select the informative images from a target domain of interest to acquire human annotation. We show that our sample selection strategy drastically reduces the amount of labeled data from the target domain needed to adapt a counting network trained on a source domain to the target domain. Empirically, the networks trained on the UCF-QNRF dataset can be adapted to surpass the performance of the previous state-of-the-art results on NWPU dataset and Shanghaitech dataset using only 17\(\%\) of the labeled training samples from the target domain.
Computational complexity of k-block conjugacy

Abstract We consider several computational problems related to conjugacy between subshifts of finite type, restricted to k-block codes: verifying a proposed k-block conjugacy, deciding if two shifts admit a k-block conjugacy, and reducing the representation size of a shift via a k-block conjugacy. We give a polynomial-time algorithm for verification, and show GI - and NP -hardness for deciding conjugacy and reducing representation size, respectively. Our approach focuses on 1-block conjugacies between vertex shifts, from which we generalize to k-block conjugacies and to edge shifts. We conclude with several open problems.
A Geometric Analysis of Phase Retrieval

Can we recover a complex signal from its Fourier magnitudes? More generally, given a set of m measurements, $$y_k = \left| \varvec{a}_k^* \varvec{x} \right| $$ for $$k = 1, \ldots , m$$ , is it possible to recover $$\varvec{x} \in \mathbb C^n$$ (i.e., length-n complex vector)? This generalized phase retrieval (GPR) problem is a fundamental task in various disciplines and has been the subject of much recent investigation. Natural nonconvex heuristics often work remarkably well for GPR in practice, but lack clear theoretic explanations. In this paper, we take a step toward bridging this gap. We prove that when the measurement vectors $$\varvec{a}_k$$ ’s are generic (i.i.d. complex Gaussian) and numerous enough ( $$m \ge C n \log ^3 n$$ ), with high probability, a natural least-squares formulation for GPR has the following benign geometric structure: (1) There are no spurious local minimizers, and all global minimizers are equal to the target signal $$\varvec{x}$$ , up to a global phase, and (2) the objective function has a negative directional curvature around each saddle point. This structure allows a number of iterative optimization methods to efficiently find a global minimizer, without special initialization. To corroborate the claim, we describe and analyze a second-order trust-region algorithm.
Trusted Confidence Bounds for Learning Enabled Cyber-Physical Systems

Cyber-physical systems (CPS) can benefit by the use of learning enabled components (LECs) such as deep neural networks (DNNs) for perception and decision making tasks. However, DNNs are typically non-transparent making reasoning about their predictions very difficult, and hence their application to safety-critical systems is very challenging. LECs could be integrated easier into CPS if their predictions could be complemented with a confidence measure that quantifies how much we trust their output. The paper presents an approach for computing confidence bounds based on Inductive Conformal Prediction (ICP). We train a Triplet Network architecture to learn representations of the input data that can be used to estimate the similarity between test examples and examples in the training data set. Then, these representations are used to estimate the confidence of set predictions from a classifier that is based on the neural network architecture used in the triplet. The approach is evaluated using a robotic navigation benchmark and the results show that we can computed trusted confidence bounds efficiently in real-time.
Topological Operators and Completeness of Spectrum in Discrete Gauge Theories

In many gauge theories, the existence of particles in every representation of the gauge group (also known as completeness of the spectrum) is equivalent to the absence of one-form global symmetries. However, this relation does not hold, for example, in the gauge theory of non-abelian finite groups. We refine this statement by considering topological operators that are not necessarily associated with any global symmetry. For discrete gauge theory in three spacetime dimensions, we show that completeness of the spectrum is equivalent to the absence of certain Gukov-Witten topological operators. We further extend our analysis to four and higher spacetime dimensions. Since topological operators are natural generalizations of global symmetries, we discuss evidence for their absence in a consistent theory of quantum gravity.
Self-supervised Denoising via Diffeomorphic Template Estimation: Application to Optical Coherence Tomography

Optical Coherence Tomography (OCT) is pervasive in both the research and clinical practice of Ophthalmology. However, OCT images are strongly corrupted by noise, limiting their interpretation. Current OCT denoisers leverage assumptions on noise distributions or generate targets for training deep supervised denoisers via averaging of repeat acquisitions. However, recent self-supervised advances allow the training of deep denoising networks using only repeat acquisitions without clean targets as ground truth, reducing the burden of supervised learning. Despite the clear advantages of self-supervised methods, their use is precluded as OCT shows strong structural deformations even between sequential scans of the same subject due to involuntary eye motion. Further, direct nonlinear alignment of repeats induces correlation of the noise between images. In this paper, we propose a joint diffeomorphic template estimation and denoising framework which enables the use of self-supervised denoising for motion deformed repeat acquisitions, without empirically registering their noise realizations. Strong qualitative and quantitative improvements are achieved in denoising OCT images, with generic utility in any imaging modality amenable to multiple exposures.
Nonexistence of invariant tori transverse to foliations: An application of converse KAM theory

Invariant manifolds are of fundamental importance to the qualitative understanding of dynamical systems. In this work, we explore and extend MacKay’s converse Kolmogorov–Arnol’d–Moser condition to obtain a sufficient condition for the nonexistence of invariant surfaces that are transverse to a chosen 1D foliation. We show how useful foliations can be constructed from approximate integrals of the system. This theory is implemented numerically for two models: a particle in a two-wave potential and a Beltrami flow studied by Zaslavsky (Q-flows). These are both 3D volume-preserving flows, and they exemplify the dynamics seen in time-dependent Hamiltonian systems and incompressible fluids, respectively. Through both numerical and theoretical considerations, it is revealed how to choose foliations that capture the nonexistence of invariant tori with varying homologies.
The production-smoothing model is alive and well

Abstract Monthly data in physical units for seven industries are used to examine the production-smoothing hypothesis. The results strongly support this hypothesis. Significant effects of expected future sales on current production are found for four industries, and the estimated decision equations for all seven industries imply production-smoothing behavior. The previous negative results appear to be due to the use of data biased against the hypothesis — the shipments and inventory data of the Department of Commerce. The paper also shows that sensible results can be obtained from estimating approximations to decision equations as opposed to estimating Euler equations.
Europe: Political, Not Cosmopolitan

The article challenges the established view according to which the authority of the EU is inexplicable in terms of collective civic self-determination. Contrary to this widely held belief, it explains the condition under which it is plausible to impute the current shape of the Union to the collective self-determination of European citizens. This condition is met if citizens approach the Union with a cosmopolitan attitude. The article then goes on to explain that while the Union may not appear optimal under this condition, it looks quite disastrous when approached from the perspective of political self-determination. The argument makes an appeal to European citizens. They have to come to grips with their own self-understanding. Should European citizens come to realise that they are, after all, political beings because they care about sustaining a form of life at specific place of the world, they will have to re-appropriate Europe for themselves.
Corporations, Society, and the State: A Defense of the Corporate Tax

This article attempts to provide the first comprehensive rationale for defending the current corporate income tax. It argues that the usual reasons given for the tax (primarily as an indirect way of taxing shareholders, or alternatively as a form of benefit tax) are inadequate. It then explains what the original rationale to adopt this tax was in 1909, namely to regulate managerial power, and that this rationale stems from the “real” view of the corporation, which was the dominant view throughout the many transformations underwent by the corporate form from Roman times to the present. Turning to normative argument, the article then argues that the regulatory rationale given for taxing corporations in 1909 is still valid, since similar social conditions continue to exist, and in fact is strengthened by the rise of multinational enterprises. Finally, the article argues that this rationale is necessary from a normative perspective to support the fight against the two crucial current threats to the corporate tax posed by the corporate tax shelter and tax competition phenomena. 1 Irwin I. Cohn Professor of Law, the University of Michigan. B.A. (History), Hebrew University, 1983; Ph.D. (History), Harvard University, 1986; J.D., Harvard Law School, 1989. I would like to thank Steve Bank, Michael Barr, Suzie Blumenthal, Yariv Brauner, Bruce Frier, Tom Green, David Hasen, Don Herzog, Jim Hines, Doug Kahn, Marjorie Kornhauser, Rich Lavoie, David Lenter, Kyle Logue, David Schizer, Joel Slemrod, and participants at workshops at Columbia, Michigan, and Northwestern Law Schools.
Comparative sexology: Nonconsensual insemination in the United States and the European Union

Summary Little research exists about nonconsensual insemination or related topics, including reproductive coercion, breech of sexual consent agreements, intentional failure of withdrawal method, and intentional disease transmission. Researchers should incorporate intentional sabotage of withdrawal method into inquiries about reproductive coercion, and further study how sex partners intentionally transmit diseases. Healthcare and sex educators should promote condom-use while screening withdrawal method users for nonconsensual insemination. Healthcare providers should increase the attention given to youth, immigrants, and other vulnerable populations. Because of governments’ interests in reducing unintended pregnancy and sexually transmitted diseases, systemic changes ought to be implemented. These changes could include increased criminalization of nonconsensual insemination, inclusion of nonconsensual insemination in domestic violence legislation, and increased sensitivity and training among police and healthcare providers. Police and legislators should especially focus on accepting victims’ credibility and identifying males and homosexuals as victims of nonconsensual insemination, sexual assault, and domestic violence.
Re-evaluating Declaratory Judgment Jurisdiction in Intellectual Property Disputes

The Declaratory Judgment Act of 1934 was quickly tagged by the U.S. Supreme Court as a simple procedural measure. Whether simple or procedural, the addition of the declaratory judgment option has dramatically increased the rights of would-be defendants. This is of special interest in patent law, where without the ability to initiate legal action, an alleged infringer would typically have no recourse but to either drop a lucrative business and lose a massive investment, or to languish in legal limbo while potentially accruing liability for treble damages. The option of a mirror-image lawsuit removes the patentee’s ability to unilaterally decide when, where -and, effectively whether -to file suit. For this reason, patent litigation is exemplary of the normative values that led to the passage of the Declaratory Judgment Act, including the delicate balance of ripeness, standing, and judicial access. Indeed, the Act’s proponents had patent law firmly in mind. Over the years, however, courts have begun to lose sight of this objective. Following the jurisprudence of the Federal Circuit Court of Appeals, district courts have increasingly applied an overly formalistic standard of justiciability in declaratory actions involving patent disputes, thereby unduly decreasing judicial access, and shifting the balance of power back to the patentee. This is largely due to confusion by the Federal Circuit and the district courts between baseline and discretionary jurisdiction. Interestingly, the courts have -by analogy from patent law -articulated the same strict standard in copyright and trademark disputes, yet they have applied the standard more broadly, thereby more closely following the normative values embodied in the Declaratory Judgment Act. This article examines the normative purpose behind the Declaratory Judgment Act; the standards articulated and applied in intellectual property disputes; and the recent case law on the topic, culminating in the timely, although somewhat misguided, U.S. Supreme Court decision of January 9, 2007. The article proposes a more appropriate standard for evaluating declaratory judgment jurisdiction in intellectual property disputes, and provides a four-part spectrum of factors for district courts to consider in exercising their discretion, in order to best align declaratory jurisprudence with the normative values that led to its creation. ♦ Assistant Professor, Florida State University School of Law; Columbia University School of Law, J.D. 1996. The author wishes to thank Professor Mark Lemley for providing thoughtful comments on this article. Thanks also to colleagues J.B. Ruhl, Robin Craig, Mark Seidenfeld, and Jim Rossi for their careful review. Thanks to Professors David Nimmer, Neil Netanel, and Jane Ginsburg for their insights on copyright law, and to Professors Charles McManis and Lee Petherbridge for their insights on patent law. Special thanks to FSU for providing research support, including the very helpful services of research librarian Mary McCormick.
Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? Household Expectations of Inflation Based on Micro Consumption Data

Survey data on household expectations of inflation are routinely used in economic analysis, yet it is not clear how accurately households are able to articulate their expectations in survey interviews. We propose an alternative approach to recovering households' expectations of inflation from their consumption expenditures. We show that these expectations measures have predictive power for consumer price index (CPI) inflation. They are better predictors of CPI inflation than household survey responses and more highly correlated with professional inflation forecasts, except for highly educated consumers, consistent with the view that more educated consumers are better able to articulate their expectations. We also document that households' inflation expectations respond to inflation news, as measured by the unpredictable component of inflation predictions in the Survey of Professional Forecasters. The response to inflation news tends to increase with households' level of education, consistent with the existence of constraints on household's ability to process this information.
The Times They are Not A-Changin: Reforming the Charitable Split-Interest Rules (Again)

The article reviews the history of the tax treatment of charitable split interest gifts, explains the inequities that Congress both cured and generated in its 1969 reforms, and proposes solutions that are consistent with the goals of the 1969 legislation. The article discusses variations in the 1969 definition of a charitable split interest, which, because of the enacted statutory language, applies in instances where there is no abuse potential. The inequity produced by that definition penalizes the donor and flouts the rationale behind the 1969 legislation. By contrast, the creation of some required statutory forms of charitable split interests in trust, enacted to prevent abuse, have themselves created new opportunities for donors to evade taxes in ways unanticipated by the 1969 Act. In the spirit of the 1969 law, the article makes several recommendations, including proposals: (1) to modify the statutory definition of charitable split interest to provide an exception from the statutory requirements where there is no statutory mandate to calculate value by means of the actuarial tables under section 7520 and no abuse potential; and (2) to eliminate, or to restrict the tax avoidance aspects of, some of the charitable split interest in trust devices created in the 1969 legislation.
How to fix bankers' pay

This essay – written for a special issue of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences’ Daedalus journal on lessons from the financial crisis – discusses how bankers’ pay should be fixed. I describe two distinct sources of risk-taking incentives: first, executives’ excessive focus on short-term results; and, second, their excessive focus on results for shareholders, which corresponds to a lack of incentives for executives to consider outcomes for other contributors of capital. I discuss how pay arrangements can be reformed to address each of these problems and conclude by examining the role that government should play in bringing about the needed reforms. The essay provides an accessible summary of the analysis developed in Bebchuk and Fried, “Paying for Long-Term Performance” (University of Pennsylvania Law Review, 2010, http://ssrn.com/abstract=1535355) and Bebchuk and Spamann, “Regulating Bankers’ Pay” (Georgetown Law Journal, 2010, http://ssrn.com/abstract=1410072).
Fixed and Random Effects in Classical and Bayesian Regression

This paper proposes a common and tractable framework for analyzing fixed and random effects models, in particular constant-slope variable-intercept designs. It is shown that, regardless of whether effects (i) are treated as parameters or as an error term, (ii) are estimated in different stages of a hierarchical model, or whether (iii) correlation between effects and regressors is allowed, when the same prior information on idiosyncratic parameters is introduced into all estimation methods, the resulting common slope estimator is also the same across methods. These results are illustrated using the Grunfeld investment data with different prior distributions. Random effects estimates are shown to be more efficient than fixed effects estimates. This efficiency gain, however, comes at the cost of neglecting information obtained in the computation of the prior unknown variance of idiosyncratic parameters.
Enforcing Civil Rights: Race Discrimination and the Department of Justice

The 1964 Civil Rights Act confirmed the central role of the Department of Justice in the national battle against racial discrimination. Congress had established the department's Civil Rights Division in 1957 with a staff of a dozen to combat racial discrimination in voting; its current staff of 500 now prosecutes many forms of discrimination in employment, housing, education, and other areas. In "Enforcing Civil Rights," a former member of the CRD focuses on the role of that agency in combating the racial caste system in America. Brian Landsberg's overview of civil rights enforcement reveals the political realities and national priorities that shaped it; the moral, practical, and political forces that have influenced it; and the roles of the federal government, executive branch, and Attorney General in implementing it. Drawing on case law, legislative histories, Justice Department archives, and his own years of service, Landsberg provides a reflective insider's view of how the CRD has enforced civil rights. He tells how Congress broadened its mandate from authority to sue state and local governments to jurisdiction over individuals and companies and how the CRD weathered Washington's shifting political winds. He also conveys the challenges that came with the responsibility of enforcing legislation for an entire nation and describes the roles of law, politics, and historical forces in the CRD's setting of priorities and litigation policy. In addition, Landsberg addresses conflicts between career civil servants and political appointees, studies the consequences of its litigation positions, and considers whether the structure of enforcement should be changed. He offers some sensible recommendations for rationalizing and strengthening the federal civil rights enforcement structure. The CRD has done much to eliminate America's racial caste system, but Landsberg cautions that we must take care to ensure that it does not become a tool of narrow interests. His book provides the understanding we need to safeguard against that risk, while offering a new perspective on the civil rights movement in America."
Post-disaster Community Recovery in Heterogeneous, Loosely Connected Communities

Abstract Hurricane Katrina hit the Gulf Coast on 29 August 2005, leaving a great deal of destruction, pain, and uncertainty in its wake. Post-disaster community rebound is a collective action problem where every individual's decision to rebuild is impacted by the likelihood that others in the community will rebuild. The literature on post-disaster recovery suggests that homogenous, tight-knit communities will have an advantage over more diverse, less-connected communities in solving this collective action problem and bringing about community rebound and redevelopment. Consequently, these studies have tended to underappreciate the capacity of loosely knit, heterogeneous communities to overcome the challenges associated with community recovery after a disaster. This article hopes to fill this gap in the literature by examining how loosely knit, heterogeneous communities can facilitate post-disaster community recovery and redevelopment. To examine this, we highlight the importance of community-based organiza...
Privacy, Property, and Publicity

In Jennifer Rothman’s new book The Right of Publicity: Privacy Reimagined for a Public Age, she argues that we have wrongly reconceived the right of publicity as an intellectual property (IP) right rather than as a privacy-like right of “self-ownership,” and that in doing so we have let it grow unchecked in ways that serve no good purpose. She endorses returning to the historical core of the right of publicity as a privacy right that primarily protects human dignity, and argues that doing so will enable us to limit the growth of the doctrine and apply the First Amendment to effectively protect speech threatened by the current, mutant right of publicity. Rothman’s book is a compelling read, and her explication of the history and how we got here is fascinating and largely persuasive. And I agree with her both about the problems with the current broad form of the right of publicity and about many of the specific doctrinal changes we should make to cut it back to a manageable size. But I think there is a disconnect between the history she has uncovered and the theoretical and legal framework she proposes. The history of the right of publicity as a privacy rather than an IP right is not encouraging for those who would limit the scope of the right or apply robust First Amendment principles to counterbalance it. The right of privacy that grew into the right of publicity was, from the start, capacious, unruly, poorly cabined, and intolerant of free speech. While dropping the idea of the right of publicity as IP might solve particular problems such as its transferability, it is unlikely to give us the limits she wants on the substantive scope of the right itself. To get there, we would need to challenge the nature of the use of one’s identity as a privacy harm in and of itself. Ironically, understanding the right of publicity as a specific form of IP right—a trademark-like right against deception—may point the way towards a more reasonable doctrine.
X-ray and radio constraints on the mass of the black hole in swift J164449.3+573451

Swift J164449.3+573451 is an exciting transient event, likely powered by the tidal disruption of a star by a massive black hole. The distance to the source, its transient nature, and high internal column density serve to complicate several means of estimating the mass of the black hole. Utilizing newly refined relationships between black hole mass, radio luminosity, and X-ray luminosity, and de-beaming the source flux, a weak constraint on the black hole mass is obtained: log(M BH/M ☉) = 5.5 ± 1.1 (1σ confidence). The confidence interval is determined from the current intrinsic scatter in the relation, which includes effects from X-ray variability and accretion modes. This mass range is broad, but it includes low values that are consistent with some variability arguments, and it safely excludes high-mass values where it becomes impossible for black holes to disrupt stars. Future refinements in relationships between black hole mass, radio luminosity, and X-ray luminosity will be able to reduce the uncertainty in related mass estimates by a factor of two, making this technique comparable to estimates based on the M-σ relationship. Possible difficulties in placing such events on the fundamental plane, a potential future test of their suitability, and uncertainties in mass stemming from variable X-ray emission are discussed. As near- and longer-term survey efforts such as Pan-STARRS, LSST, LOFAR, the Square Kilometer Array, and eROSITA begin to detect many tidal disruption events, black hole mass estimates from combined X-ray and radio observations may prove to be very pragmatic.
Why LDCs Sign Treaties That Hurt Them: Explaining the Popularity of Bilateral Investment Treaties

A serious analysis of Bilateral Investment Treaties (BITs) and their implications for both investment levels and the distribution of the gains from investment is timely. BITs have become the dominant international vehicle through which investment is regulated.
Why Strikes Occur: Evidence from the Capital Markets

New and existing empirical evidence regarding the stock market reaction to strikes is used to test the validity of three strike theories. A review of the existing capital market evidence reveals the need for information regarding the intraindustry announcement effects of strikes against manufacturing firms. This need is filled by applying event-study methodology, in a manner consistent with earlier studies, to a sample of strikes during the period 1982–1999. This new evidence, combined with that of previous studies, consistently supports the validity of Hick’s theory that strikes are the result of bargaining errors, misperceptions of bargaining goals, or discrepancies between the expectations of union leaders and the rank and file.
Daubert's Erie Problem

The National Enquirer's headline screamed, "New Thalidomide Scandal-Experts Reveal." The story concerned a new drug described as a "vicious body-twisting crippler" that resulted in "several thousand tragically deformed infants."' The paper reported that two infants whose mothers took this drug were born without eyes. Another was born without a brain.2 The Enquirer was talking about Bendectin, a morning sickness drug marketed by Richardson-Merrell, Inc. Merrell denied any culpability, but the Enquirer quoted two nationally-renowned experts who emphatically agreed that Bendectin caused birth defects. 3 The article also invoked Merrell's previous role in marketing the notorious teratogen4 thalidomide.5 Thalidomide's disastrous effects 6 became widely publicized within a few years of its release onto the market. 7
Is Arbitration Lawless

Concern about the "lawlessness" of arbitration is widespread, but what commentators mean by "lawless" varies. The most common meaning is simply that arbitrators are not required to follow the law in making their awards. A second meaning is that parties to arbitration agreements use arbitration to avoid application of legal rules protecting consumers and employees. A third meaning is that arbitration impedes the creation of law by the courts. This article examines the empirical evidence underlying these various views of arbitral lawlessness. It considers what we know about three related empirical questions: (1) do arbitrators follow the law in making their awards? (2) do businesses provide for arbitration to avoid mandatory legal rules? and (3) to what extent does arbitration interfere with the development of the law? Certainly much more research needs to be done. But, perhaps surprisingly, the available empirical evidence to date provides at best weak support for the view that arbitration is "lawless." There is evidence that arbitrators do not treat statutory issues in as much detail as courts, but little other evidence that arbitrators definitively differ from judges in their attitudes and practices toward legal issues. Studies find no indication that parties agree to arbitrate to avoid mandatory legal rules, even when they have the opportunity and incentive to do so. Finally, whether arbitration interferes with the development of the law is extremely difficult to evaluate. Certainly many arbitration awards are not published; but there is some evidence that awards that are published serve as precedent (persuasive rather than binding) in subsequent arbitrations.
Through Mexican Eyes: Mexican Perspectives on Transmigration

The focus of this article is the phenomenon of international transmigration in Mexico. Transmigration is the movement of individuals from their place of origin through another without intention to settle and on their way to a final destination. Mexico’s transmigrant population consists of individuals headed or returning to the southern Mexican region from the United States or Canada. But this population also includes Central and South American transmigrants attempting to reach the United States using land routes through Mexico. For the most part the paper does not touch on the experiences of domestic transmigrants. Rather, the bulk of the paper addresses international transmigrants found in the Southern Mexican border. The paper begins by establishing the historical and cultural interconnected nature of the southern border region, and the means by which transmigrants cross through Mexico on their way north. The paper then explains the governmental structures and laws affecting the migration; this is especially important since Mexico’s immigration laws are in a transition process. Very much deserved time is then given to the vast reports of human rights violations against transmigrants reported by Non-Government Organizations (NGOs) and media. Finally, the paper makes some modest observations on the current status of transmigration in Mexico and sets forth some ideas for future consideration as Mexico reexamines its role in transmigration.