Psychiatric Music Therapy in 2016: A Delphi Poll of the Future

ABSTRACT: The future of psychiatric music therapy was investigated using a Delphi poll to garner expert consensual predictions in the areas of theoretical orientations, music therapy interventions, qualifications of psychiatric music therapists, and selected scenarios. Invented by the Rand Corporation and temporarily classified by the U.S. Military, Delphi methodology has been cited as the best available technique for forecasting the future. Psychiatric internship directors at roster AMTA internships participated as the panel of experts. The panel ranked the future probability of 101 music therapy-related events using seven-point Likert scales ranging from great decrease/ very unlikely to great increase/very likely. Content validity was established for the questionnaire in addition to a criterion validity coefficient of .85, which was established for second-round results. What might the future of psychiatric music therapy look like in the year 2016? Professional issues considered as crucial include licensure and restrictive licensure laws (Adamek, 1999; McKinney, 2005; Murphy & Polen, 2005), reimbursement (Adamek, 1999; Hairston, 2003; Wheeler, 2005), and the need for protocols supported by research and outcomebased data (Adamek, 1999; McKinney, 2005; Pfeifer, 2003; Wheeler, 2005). Other issues of concern to related professionals that have import for the music therapy profession are changes in theoretical orientation, therapeutic interventions, and training requirements for therapists (Norcross, Hedges, & Prochaska, 2002). In view of the preceding concerns, it is imperative that we become knowledgeable about how such issues will affect the future of music therapists and our patients. What will be the face of psychiatric music therapy in the year 2016? Delphi Methodology The best available technique for forecasting the future is the Delphi poll (Neimeyer & Diamond, 2001). More than 1000 Delphi polls have been used to forecast the future in diverse areas such as technology (Linstone & Turoff, 1975), accounting (Baldwin-Morgan, 1993), psychotherapy (Norcross et al., 2002), counseling (Neimeyer & Diamond, 2001), and pediatric psychology (Brown & Roberts, 2000). The Rand Corporation invented Delphi methodology in the mid-1950s. The technique was subsequently classified by the U.S. military and used for predicting the effects of a massive nuclear attack. Delphi methodology was declassified by the U.S. Air Force in 1962 (Dalkey & Helmer, 1963; Linston & Turoff, 1975; Neimeyer & Diamond, 2001). The Delphi poll's reliance on expert consensual prediction is a major strength over usual survey methods. Experts achieve this consensus by rating future events and then rating the same events a second time after viewing the ratings of the other experts on the panel (Norcross et al., 2002). Delphi polls are considered economical and time efficient, usually more accurate than other prognostication techniques, to outperform 95% of individual expert forecasts and are useful in moving professions forward (Ascher, 1978; Norcross et al., 2002; Parente, Anderson, Meyers, & O'Brien, 1984). Although Delphi polls have been cited as useful in moving professions forward, they have not yet been used in the music therapy profession. The purpose of this study was to forecast the future of psychiatric music therapy over the next decade. The target date the panel was given for future predictions was the year 2016. The predictions were considered as probabilities rather than absolutes. The panel predicted what probably will happen rather than what will happen. Method Participants Psychiatric internship directors (IDs) at internships approved by The American Music Therapy Association (AMTA) served as the participants. The rationale for restricting the participants to IDs was because as a group, IDs are among the most experienced, if not the most experienced group, of psychiatric clinicians in the music therapy profession. …