The Significance of Opposition Entrepreneurs on Local Sales Tax Referendum Outcomes

This article assesses the impact of “opposition entrepreneurs” on affirmative vote percentages for special purpose local-option sales tax (SPLOST) proposals in counties of the Metropolitan Atlanta region. The main question addressed is how does the presence of identifiable opposition-leading entrepreneurs in SPLOST campaigns affect the affirmative (“yes”) vote percentages for these sales tax proposals? Aggregate-level county data and election-specific campaign data were collected for 86 county and school district SPLOST referenda in 15 counties in the Metropolitan Atlanta region during the time period spanning from 1998 through 2011. The results of ordinary least square regression analyses support the hypothesis that the presence of opposition entrepreneurs in SPLOST campaigns reduces affirmative voting. The results indicate that opposition, by itself, is not sufficient to impact voting outcomes in tax referendum elections. Rather, consequential opposition efforts need to be led by an identifiable leader. Related Articles Dyck, Joshua J., and Annika Hagley. 2012. “Political Geography, Direct Democracy, and the Reasoning Voter: Spatial Proximity, Symbolic Politics, and Voting on California's Proposition 83.” Politics & Policy 40 (2): 195-220. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1747-1346.2012.00346.x/abstract Adams, Brian E. 2012. “Citizens, Interest Groups, and Local Ballot Initiatives.” Politics & Policy 40 (1): 43-68. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1747-1346.2011.00336.x/abstract Caillier, James. 2010. “Citizen Trust, Political Corruption, and Voting Behavior: Connecting the Dots.” Politics & Policy 38 (5): 1015-1035. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1747-1346.2010.00267.x/abstract Related Media Davis, Janel. 2011. “Cobb SPLOST Extension Appears to Pass by 79 Votes.” Atlanta Journal-Constitution. March 16. http://www.ajc.com/news/news/local/cobb-splost-extension-appears-to-pass-by-79-votes/nQrdt/ WSBTV. 2011. “Cobb SPLOST Vote Spurs Rallies at Marietta Square.” Rally Held on March 13. Posted by Brett Bittner. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=smTsBcQYnd8 “Cobb Residents Rally against SPLOST.” 2011. Atlanta Journal-Constitution. March 5. http://www.wsbtv.com/news/news/cobb-residents-rally-against-splost/nJbhh/ Este articulo examina el impacto de los “emprendedores de oposicion” en el porcentaje de votos afirmativos para propuestas a impuestos con proposito especifico a las ventas locales (SPLOST por sus siglas en ingles: special purpose local-option sales tax) en los condados de la region metropolitana de Atlanta. La pregunta principal que analiza este estudio es, ?como afecta la presencia de una oposicion identificable, es decir emprendedores de renombre, al porcentaje de votos afirmativos en las campanas que proponen impuestos SPLOST? Se recolecto informacion agregada a nivel condado y los resultados finales de 18 campanas especificas y SPLOST referenda en 15 condados de la region metropolitana de Atlanta durante el periodo de 1998 a 2011. El resultado de la regresion por minimos cuadrados ordinarios (OLS por sus siglas en ingles, ordinary least squares) apoya la hipotesis que la presencia de emprendedores opositores en campanas SPLOST reduce el porcentaje de votos afirmativos. Estos resultados indican que la oposicion por si misma no es suficiente para crear un impacto en los referenda de impuestos, si no que se tienen que realizar esfuerzos de oposicion por lideres identificables.