Modeling out-migration from depressed regions: the significance of origin and destination characteristics.

Abstract. Many migration models, whether derived from the Hicksian macroadjustment approach or from human capital theory, use simultaneously origin and destination variables in their empirical testing procedures. In this paper it is hypothesized that the actual out-migration decision process has two separate but interrelated stages—the decision to leave and the decision as to the destination. A two-stage estimation procedure is used to analyze the significance of origin characteristics as determinants of out-migration, and the factors that allocate migrants to particular destinations. The model is applied to understanding the patterns and determinants of out-migration from a depressed region, the Central Appalachians of the United States of America. Time-series and cross-sectional models are utilized to evaluate the hypothesized two-stage process over the period 1958-1975. 1 Introduction Understanding the determinants and consequences of interregional migration has long been of interest to academics and policymakers in a number of countries. The human capital theory of individual decisionmaking (Becker, 1962; Sjaastad, 1962) has come to dominate how the determinants of migration are understood. Evidence suggests that, in the United States of America, internal migration tends to be both economically and psychologically rewarding (Morrison, 1972; Wertheimer, 1970). At the more macroscale, migration has been seen as an important allocative mechanism for integrating over time and space the demand and supply of labour. Migration has also been linked to the process of regional growth and decline (Muth, 1971) as well as to the pattern of aggregate unemployment and inflation (see Brechling, 1973). As Holm and Weissglas (1977) note, local labour-market planning has come to see the migration aspect as a fundamental integrating component of the space economy. At the policymaking level interregional migration has been argued to have both positive and negative consequences. In the short run, policy-induced out-migration from a depressed region may reduce the local unemployment problem (Vanderkamp, 1970). However, in the long run, out-migration can also shrink the size of the local economy and reinforce the long-term unemployment problem by selecting those with the highest employment potential (Brown and Burrows, 1977). Consequently many planning agencies, including the Economic Development Administration in the United States, have attempted to develop comprehensive countermeasures to integrate directly short-run and long-run planning goals. Direct job creation, growth pole policies, and migration have been linked in a variety of schemes to consolidate and encourage out-migrants to select particular localities within the planning region. The success of linking migration and development programmes in the United States has been difficult to evaluate for a variety of reasons. Hansen (1972) has argued that there are many political and administrative problems that have limited the impact of these programmes. However, Greenwood (1975) has also claimed that the processes and determinants of out-migration in general are only poorly understood, let alone the determinants of out-migration from depressed regions. Morrison (1972) noted that the out-migration rates for depressed regions are not necessarily greater than