Does Marriage Increase the Odds of Affluence? Exploring the Life Course Probabilities

This study estimates the life course incidence and age pattern of affluence among American couples in comparison to nonmarried, never married, and formerly married men and women. Life course probabilities are computed from a series of life tables built upon 25 years of data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (N = 8,510 25-year-olds; N = 3,481 45-year-olds). Results confirm the notion that marriage enhances the lifetime probability of affluence, and that this advantage varies sharply by gender and by race. The study suggests that the marital advantage for gaining affluence is textured by a financial landscape of gender and race inequality. Key Words: affluence, family structure, gender inequality, life course, marriage. It is widely believed that marriage increases the likelihood of becoming affluent, especially when the marriage lasts a long time. This belief is a part of American cultural lore, first articulated by Benjamin Franklin, and continuing to the present (Waite & Gallagher, 2000). Social scientists and economists generally concur with this notion, at least in the sense that among all possible household types, marriage is viewed as the most salutary for achieving financial success. Furthermore, because the attainment of financial wealth is highly valued within American culture (de Tocqueville, 1999; Hacker, 1997; Weber, 1998), the positive case for marriage is all the more compelling. The association of marriage with affluence is related to the broader ideology commonly identified as the American Dream (Hochschild, 1995). Most Americans, and particularly White Americans, believe that opportunities exist for all to rise up from modest beginnings. Marriage is thought to be instrumental to upward income mobility, whereas staying married is regarded as a positive moral quality (Waite & Gallagher, 2000). Investing in a long-term, stable marriage is therefore a vehicle for pursuing moral as well as financial returns. There is a fairly large body of evidence suggesting that the American Dream does not pan out equally or fairly for all in society (Lichter & Lansdale, 1995; Schwarz, 1997). For example, Rank and Hirschl (2001a) assessed the likelihood of affluence within the American population over the period of 1968-1992 and concluded that Blacks are much less likely than Whites to become affluent, and that the very substantial racial disadvantage cannot be explained by gender composition or educational attainment. This finding, among others, suggests that claims associated with the American Dream should be subjected to empirical assessment, rather than uncritically accepted. How many couples actually achieve affluence? We are aware of no longitudinal studies assessing the probability of affluence among American couples. In this paper we attempt to do so and in the process answer the following questions. First, what is the incidence of affluence among couples over the life course, and how does that compare with individuals who are not married? Furthermore, how does the incidence of affluence among marrieds and nonmarrieds differ depending on the stage of the life course? Are older married and nonmarried individuals more likely to achieve affluence compared with their younger counterparts? Second, to what extent does the putative marriage advantage vary by race and by the presence of children? Race is a major divide within the stratification system, and children increase the need for family income as well as the need for unpaid household labor. We expect that the likelihood of affluence is conditional upon these two variables. Third, is marriage a more attractive option for achieving affluence depending upon one's gender? To examine this question, we estimate the rates of affluence for nonmarried men and women and compare them to their married counterparts. This comparison provides an empirical assessment of the proposition that it is in men's and women's pecuniary interest to get married and to stay married. …