CRIMINAL PERCEPTIONS AND VIOLENT CRIMINAL VICTIMIZATION

I. INTRODUCTION Economists often assume that perceptions about risky outcomes are rationally formed (Muth, 1992; Sargent, 1993). Research suggests there may be perceptional gaps between assessment of possible outcomes and actual behavior. For example, Myers (1992) finds that perceptions of being a drug dealer have little impact on the probability of engaging in drug dealing, after controlling for other economic incentives. The dominant factor contributing to drug selling is unattractive economic opportunities, not self-perceptions of being a drug dealer. Criminal justice and sociology literature contains much discussion of gaps between perceptions and criminal behavior. Most importantly, the literature focuses on the relationship between objective criminal outcomes and perceptions or fears of crime among potential victims (Meithe, 1995, Yin, 1985). This paper documents the substantial impact that previous victimization has on the formation of personal perceptions and views about the likelihood of crime. These perceptions, fears, and concerns may play an important role in influencing criminal justice policies and allocation of resources for crime control. To the extent that these perceptions are accurate, signals by citizens to their elected officials can serve as effective guides in formulating resource allocation decisions that not only reduce crime, but also comfort potential victims. However, if these fears and perceptions are widely influenced by factors quite beyond actual victimization risk, misallocation can result. Alternatively, if these fears are rationally formed but are accelerated by prior victimization, then the signals sent may inaccurately reflect citizen preferences for law enforcement. For a state undergoing dramatic racial and demographic changes, these fears and perceptions may be propelled, in part, by prejudices and stereotypes or racial and ethnic misconceptions. II. FEAR OF CRIME The largely intuitive and highly expected correlation between fear of crime and actual victimization is not as obvious as it may seem, according to sociologists and criminologists. First, the effect of victimization on fear is far less strong than one might expect. In a comprehensive review of the literature on fear of crime, Wesley Skogan (1986) contends that people often "inflate, deflate or garble" the actual crime risks through perceptions derived from extraneous considerations. He notes that second-hand information and perceptions formed through social networks and rumors play as much of a role in affecting people's assessment of crime risks as do their personal victimization experiences or actual victimization rates. Actual risks of victimization for certain crimes may be very low. In communities where there is widespread knowledge of the victimizations or of the victims, however, perceptions of the risks of victimization may be inflated. Thus, many empirical studies find sizable disparities between actual victimization rates and perceived rates (Antunes et al., 1977; Hartnagel, 1979; Lavrakas, 1984; Lee, 1982; Stafford and Galle, 1984). Second, even when there is a strong correlation between actual victimization and fear or perceptions of crime, other factors often dominate the formation of people's fears and perceptions of criminal risk. Notable among these factors is the racial succession of neighborhoods. Tabb et al. (1984) explain that working-class whites often believe that an influx of blacks into their neighborhoods contributes to the rise of crime and the deterioration in housing values. A widely cited statement of the hypothesis that fear of crime is causally related to proximity to blacks is found in Stinchcombe et al. (1992). They argue that proximity to blacks raises the risk of victimization by black offenders, which in turn increases fear. Thus, at least this portion of the fear of crime was "rational," in the sense that fears were based on objective outcomes. …