Cognitive biases, risk perception, and venture formation: How individuals decide to start companies

Abstract Despite the high risk involved, thousands of individuals decide to start ventures. Past research, however, has found that entrepreneurs do not have a high-risk propensity, that is, a great willingness to knowingly take risks. This study, therefore, explores how individuals cope with the risks inherent in their decisions, and suggests that entrepreneurs may not perceive the riskiness of starting ventures. The study's findings suggest that risk perceptions may differ because certain types of cognitive biases lead individuals to perceive less risk. Cognitive biases are common types of mental shortcuts used to make judgments. This study examines three cognitive biases that previous research has suggested may lower risk perception. The first, overconfidence, refers to the failure to know the limits of one's knowledge. The second bias tested, the illusion of control, occurs when individuals overemphasize the extent to which their skill can increase performance in situations where chance plays a large part and skill is not necessarily the deciding factor. Because the individuals believe that they can control largely uncontrollable events, they also think they can accurately predict the outcome of the events. Finally, the third bias, the belief in the law of small numbers occurs when an individual uses a limited number of informational inputs (a small sample of information) to draw firm conclusions. This study's sample consisted of 191 students pursuing a Masters of Business Administration. The students' responses to a survey based on a case study regarding a decision to start a venture were examined. The survey included questions about the students' willingness to start the venture, their perception of the venture's riskiness, and the extent to which they exhibited cognitive biases in their decision processes. The study's findings tentatively suggest that individuals start ventures because they do not perceive the risks involved, and not because they knowingly accept high levels of risks. The belief in the law of small numbers lowered an individual's perceptions of a venture's riskiness, suggesting that some individuals draw firm conclusions from small samples. An illusion of control also decreased risk perception, suggesting that individuals starting ventures might not acknowledge that certain tasks, important to the venture's success, are beyond their control. Some argue that biases might be associated with venture failure. If this is the case, the very processes that increase the likelihood of starting a venture may actually decrease performance. Entrepreneurs may choose to minimize their biases by soliciting and paying heed to the advice of outsiders, or by using group decision-making techniques, such as devil's advocacy or dialectical inquiry. Others, however, suggest that early in the decision process, biases may be beneficial because they lower risk perception, which allows entrepreneurs to generate the commitment needed for success. Even if this is true, entrepreneurs should still institute processes to increase learning so the venture can adjust to unfolding realities and avoid any damage caused by initial misperceptions. Similarly, entrepreneurs need adequate safety nets in case their biases lead them to encounter unforeseen difficulties. The potential positive and negative effects of biases and perceiving low levels of risk suggest the importance of exploring this area further.