Reagan Reorders the Political Regime: A Historical–Institutional Approach to Analysis of Change

The Reconstructive Conundrum The continued viability of reconstructive presidential leadership is in doubt. It has become progressively harder for even contextually well-placed presidents to employ the order shattering and order creating style of leadership historically associated with reconstructive presidents (Balkin 2014; Skowronek 1997). This recent development is an artifact of the welfare state and the general thickening of the institutional environment that trails in its wake. These impediments have already hindered the reconstructive president's ability to respond to enervated conditions. Debate still rages, but according to many, the reconstructive stance is being rendered impotent (Balkin 2012; Crockett 2011; Eberly 2010; Schier 2011; Skowronek 1997, 2011,2014). Yet, as historical-institutionalist scholars James Mahoney and Kathleen Thelen (2010) persuasively argue, political actors have more ways to affect change than just ripping out and replacing--or displacing--institutions. In fact, within an environment that affords defenders of the status quo strong veto possibilities, it is also possible to layer institutions or allow them to drift. Also possible, when veto holders' power is low and discretion to exploit ambiguities is high, is the institutional conversion modality. It thus may be possible for modern, environmentally constrained presidents to exploit reconstructive context and successfully reorder institutions. Their success would, however, require reliance upon different means (than those stressed by Skowronek) to achieve the same ends. Computer simulation, empowered by historical--institutioinal theory and employing Polya's urn model to calculate effects, already suggests as much (Nichols 2014). Indeed, this recent work concludes that modern reconstructive presidents may need to utilize all the methods of change together to reorder institutions. I refer to this as employing a multiple modalities of change strategy (MMCS). The fact remains, however, that Mahoney and Thelen's theory has never been brought to bear on case study analysis of the reconstructive presidency. It is therefore unknown whether modern reconstructive presidents have actually employed the MMCS to overcome constrained conditions. If they have not, the new strategy remains an abstract leadership possibility, and the utility of the new analytical approach is unconfirmed. However, the opposite is true if the strategy is found to have been used in practice. Two important propositions gain support. First, alternate leadership possibilities do exist. Second, a new analytic approach to the study of presidentially led institutional change is illuminative. To both fill gaps and to explore theoretical and analytical possibilities, this article proceeds in three stages. First, it enables case study by intersecting the theories found in two literatures. The article starts with an overview of Skowronek's regime theory (1997, 2011) and its extension by second-wave scholars. (1) Here attention is given to the unique contextual opportunity that reconstructive presidents recurrently face and the newly emergent problem of reordering institutions in a constrained context. Then historical-institutionalist theory is reviewed (Mahoney and Thelen 2010). The four different modalities of change are discussed separately and together (as part of an overarching strategy). A new analytic approach to the study of institutional change emerges. Second, the approach is applied within interpretive case study analysis. Here Ronald Reagan's budget battles of 1981 are examined. Investigation proceeds to determine if his well-known successes can be translated into the new conceptual framework. Results suggest that Reagan did, in fact, ingeniously employ the MMCS to reorder institutions under constrained conditions. He successfully practiced reconstructive leadership even as Skowronek's traditional order shattering/order creating modality of change had become increasingly difficult to deploy. …