cssi/SciSciGPT-SciSciNet huggingface dataset:
Using Genetic Algorithms to Model the Evolution of Heterogeneous Beliefs

We study a general equilibrium system where agents have heterogeneous beliefs concerning realizations of possible outcomes. The actual outcomes feed back into beliefs thus creating a complicated nonlinear system. Beliefs are updated via a genetic algorithm learning process which we interpret as representing communication among agents in the economy. We are able to illustrate a simple principle: genetic algorithms can be implemented so that they represent pure learning effects (i.e., beliefs updating based on realizations of endogenous variables in an environment with heterogeneous beliefs). Agents optimally solve their maximization problem at each date given their beliefs at each date. We report the results of a set of computational experiments in which we find that our population of artificial adaptive agents is usually able to coordinate their beliefs so as to achieve the Pareto superior rational expectations equilibrium of the model.
The Impact of Post‐9/11 Airport Security Measures on the Demand for Air Travel

Abstract We examine the impact of two post‐9/11 airport security measures—baggage screening and federalization of passenger screening—on demand for air travel in the United States. Exploiting the phased introduction of security measures across airports, we find that baggage screening reduced passenger volume by about 6 percent on all flights and by about 9 percent on flights departing from the nation’s 50 busiest airports. In contrast, federalizing passenger screening had little effect on passenger volume. We provide evidence that the reduction in demand was an unintended consequence of baggage screening and not the result of contemporaneous price changes, airport‐specific shocks, schedule changes, or other factors. This decline in air travel had a substantial cost. Back‐of‐the‐envelope calculations indicate that the airline industry lost about $1.1 billion because of the decline, which is 11 percent of the loss attributed directly to 9/11.
Geochemical modeling and experimental evaluation of high-pH floods: Impact of Water–Rock interactions in sandstone

Abstract Injection of alkaline solutions in reservoir leads to mineral dissolution and precipitation, possibly resulting in changes in permeability and porosity, and consequently altering solution pH. Accurate prediction of pH, alkali consumption and aqueous chemistry changes are required to design suitable chemical blends in alkaline-polymer (AP) or alkaline-surfactant-polymer (ASP) flooding. Excessive consumption of alkali can result in degradation of flood performance and lower than expected oil recovery. We report state-of-the-art geochemical simulation results for sandstone reservoir mineral assemblages and alkali solutions (NaOH, Na 2 CO 3 , and NaBO 2 ) employed in AP and ASP formulations. Single-phase high-pH corefloods were completed using Berea sandstone and reservoir samples to calibrate and validate geochemical simulations. Results show that rock-fluid interactions depend strongly on mineral type and amount, alkaline solution injection flowrate, and composition of the injected and formation water. Anhydrite, a commonly found calcium sulfate, significantly impacts pH buffering capacity, water chemistry and permeability damage against conventional alkali agents in chemical flooding particularly for Na 2 CO 3 , but no significant pH buffering is observed during NaBO 2 flooding. Experimental data and model results show that the pH-buffering effect is maintained even after several pore volumes of alkaline solution are injected, if a sufficient fraction of relevant minerals is present. The end consequence of this is insufficient alkalinity for reactions with the oil phase and the likely formation damage.
Synthesis of novel cage quaternary salts via nucleophilic substitution of 1,3-diiodobicyclo[1.1.1]pentane. Further evidence for a stable 3-iodo-1-bicyclo[1.1.1]pentyl cation.

Abstract Nucleophilic substitution of 1,3-diiodobicyclo[1.1.1]pentane by tertiary amines and pyridines was investigated. The structure of cage quaternary salts obtained together with the observation of the competitive addition of pyridine in the reaction of [1.1.1]propellane with iodine indicate the existence of a relatively stable “hot intermediate” very close in its structure to a stabilized 3-iodo-1-bicyclo[1.1.1]pentyl cation.
Effect of Embedded Titanium-Containing Particles on the Corrosion of Particulate Alumina Reinforced Aluminum-Matrix Composite

The microstructure and corrosion initiation sites of a particulate alumina reinforced 6092 Al metal-matrix composite (MMC) were examined with scanning electron microscopy and energy-dispersive X-ray analysis (EDXA). The MMC was embedded with a variety of Ti-containing microparticles that were likely introduced into the Al matrix as impurities of the alumina reinforcements. When the MMC was immersed in either 0.5 M Na 2 SO 4 or 3.15 wt % NaCl solution in open-circuit conditions, microcrevices formed around the Ti-containing particles as well as the Fe-Si-Al intermetallic particles. With the semiquantitative EDXA technique, the Ti-containing particles that induced the microcrevices can be roughly divided into three categories: (i) titanium suboxides with compositions close to that of Ti 6 O, Ti 3 O, Ti 2 O, and TiO, (ii) Ti-Zr-Al oxides, and (iii) TiO 2 . Although little is known about the electrical properties of the titanium suboxides and the Ti-Zr-Al oxides, the results suggested that these compounds were either electrically conducting or semiconducting. Microcrevices also formed around some particles with an oval structure. The core region of the oval structure appeared to be a Ti-Si-Al phase, while the shell region of the oval structure appeared to be an Fe-Si-Al phase.
Dark matter induced nucleon decay: model and signatures

If dark matter (DM) carries anti-baryon number, a DM particle may annihilate with a nucleon by flipping to anti-DM. Inspired by Hylogenesis models, we introduce a single component DM model where DM is asymmetric and carries B and L as -1/2. It can annihilate with a nucleon to an anti-lepton and an anti-DM at leading order or with an additional meson at sub-leading order. Such signals may be observed in proton decay experiments. If DM is captured in the Sun, the DM induced nucleon decay can generate a large flux of anti-neutrinos, which could be observed in neutrino experiments. Furthermore, the anti-DM particle in the final state obtains a relatively large momentum (few hundred MeV), and escapes the Sun. These fast-moving anti-DM particles could also induce interesting signals in various underground experiments.
Convexity in zero-sum differential games

A new approach to two-player zero-sum differential games with convex-concave cost function is presented. It employs the tools of convex and variational analysis. A necessary and sufficient condition on controls to be an open-loop saddle point of the game is given. Explicit formulas for saddle controls are derived in terms of the subdifferential of the function conjugate to the cost. Existence of saddle controls is concluded under very general assumptions, not requiring the compactness of control sets. A Hamiltonian inclusion, new to the field of differential games, is shown to describe equilibrium trajectories of the game.
Synergistic Use of Compound Properties and Docking Scores in Neural Network Modeling of CYP2D6 Binding: Predicting Affinity and Conformational Sampling

Cytochrome P450 2D6 (CYP2D6) is used to develop an approach for predicting affinity and relevant binding conformation(s) for highly flexible binding sites. The approach combines the use of docking scores and compound properties as attributes in building a neural network (NN) model. It begins by identifying segments of CYP2D6 that are important for binding specificity, based on structural variability among diverse CYP enzymes. A family of distinct, low-energy conformations of CYP2D6 are generated using simulated annealing (SA) and a collection of 82 compounds with known CYP2D6 affinities are docked. Interestingly, docking poses are observed on the backside of the heme as well as in the known active site. Docking scores for the active site binders, along with compound-specific attributes, are used to train a neural network model to properly bin compounds as strong binders, moderate binders, or nonbinders. Attribute selection is used to preselect the most important scores and compound-specific attributes for...
Convergent Synthesis of a β-(1→3)-Mannohexaose

An as yet unknown β-(1→3)-mannohexaose has been synthesized by a block route involving the coupling of two trisaccharides. Comparison of three closely related attempted mannohexaose syntheses reinforces the influence of subtle matching and/or mismatching interactions on the outcome of convergent oligosaccharide synthesis.
Angle measurement in the presence of mainbeam interference

The problem of reducing interference impinging on an antenna array when the sources lie in the main beam is addressed. Adaptive antenna arrays are incorporated to form adapted sum and difference beams in which the interference signals are suppressed. Monopulse error curves are then obtained, providing the necessary distortion correction curves across the entire mainbeam tracking angle region. New Cramer-Rao (C-R) bounds on the angle estimation error are derived with generalized assumptions on the signal amplitude and phase. The bounds previously derived by others are valid under different conditions. With these generalized assumptions on the signal characteristics, a Monte Carlo simulation is performed, based on the estimation procedure presented, to determine the angle estimation error. These errors are compared with the C-R bounds. Good performance is shown for sufficient S/N/sub 0/ and angular separation between the target and the interference sources. >
Halogen displacement chemistry with silver and alkali metal salts: Preparation of SF5-esters, alcohols, aliphatic olefins, acids and an iodide

Abstract It has been found that treatment of SF 5 -alkyl halides, especially SF 5 (CH 2 ) 2 Br, with silver salts such as CH 3 C(O)OAg, p -CH 3 C 6 H 4 SO 3 Ag, CF 3 SO 3 Ag and AgNO 3 provides convenient pathways for preparing the following ester compounds: SF 5 CH 2 CH 2 R (R = CH 3 COO, TosO, CF 3 SO 3 , NO 3 ), SF 5 (CH 2 ) 3 OTos, and SF 5 (CF 2 ) 4 (CH 2 ) 2 OAc. Important derivatives prepared from these esters include SF 5 (CH 2 ) 2 OH; SF 5 (CF 2 ) 4 (CH 2 ) 2 OH. Several alkenes SF 5 C(Br) CH 2 and SF 5 CH 2 (COOCH 3 )C CHC(O)OCH 3 are obtained using silver salts. The use of alkali metals salts with SF 5 (CH 2 ) 3 Br is studied and yields SF 5 (CH 2 ) 3 I; also, a pathway has been developed that extends for SF 5 (CH 2 ) 3− the chain by two-carbon atoms and also produces the first SF 5 -containing malonic acid.
Pharmacologic management of comorbid post‐traumatic stress disorder and addictions

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Post-traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) and substance use disorders (SUD) frequently co-occur, and their combination can increase poor health outcomes as well as mortality. METHODS: Using PUBMED and the list of references from key publications, this review article covered the epidemiology, neurobiology and pharmacotherapy of PTSD with comorbid alcohol, opiate, and cannabis use disorders. These SUD represent two with and one without FDA approved pharmacotherapies. RESULTS: SUD is two to three times more likely among individuals with lifetime PTSD, and suicide, which is made more likely by both of these disorders, appears to be additively increased by having this comorbidity of SUD and PTSD. The shared neurobiological features of these two illnesses include amygdalar hyperactivity with hippocampal, medial prefrontal and anterior cingulate cortex dysfunction. Medications for comorbid PTSD and SUD include the PTSD treatment sertraline, often used in combination with anticonvulsants, antipsychotics, and adrenergic blockers. When PTSD is comorbid with alcohol use disorder (AUD), naltrexone, acamprosate or disulfiram may be combined with PTSD treatments. Disulfiram alone may treat both PTSD and AUD. For PTSD combined with opiate use disorder methadone or buprenorphine are most commonly used with sertraline. Marijuana use has been considered by some to be a treatment for PTSD, but no FDA treatment for this addiction is approved. Pregabalin and D-cycloserine are two innovations in pharmacotherapy for PTSD and SUD. CONCLUSIONS AND SCIENTIFIC SIGNIFICANCE: Comorbid PTSD and SUD amplifies their lethality and treatment complexity. Although they share important neurobiology, these patients uncommonly respond to a single pharmacotherapy such as sertraline or disulfiram and more typically require medication combinations and consideration of the specific type of SUD. (Am J Addict 2015;XX:1-8). Language: en
Magnetic microactuation of torsional polysilicon structures

Abstract A microactuator technology utilizing magnetic thin films and polysilicon flexures in applied to torsional microstructures. These structures are constructed in a batch-fabrication process that combines electroplating with conventional IC-lithography, materials, and equipment. A microactuated mirror made from a 430 μ m × 130 μ m × 15 μ m nickel-iron plate attached to a pair of 400 μ m × 2.2 μ m × 2.2 μ m polysilicon torsional beams has been rotated more than 90° out of the plane of the wafer and actuated with a torque greater than 3.0 nN m. The torsional flexure structure constrains motion to rotation about a single axis, which can be an advantage for a number of microphonic applications (e.g., beam chopping, scanning, and steering).
Structural transformation and productivity growth in Africa : Uganda in the 2000s

Uganda’s economy underwent significant structural change in the 2000s whereby the share of non-tradable services in aggregate employment rose by about 7 percentage points at the expense of the production of tradable goods. The process also involved a 12-percentage-point shift in employment away from small and medium enterprises and larger firms in manufacturing and commercial agriculture mainly to microenterprises in retail trade. In addition, the sectoral reallocation of labor on these two dimensions coincided with significant growth in aggregate labor productivity. However, in and of itself, the same reallocation could only have held back, rather than aid, the observed productivity gains. This was because labor was more productive throughout the period in the tradable goods sector than in the non-tradable sector. Moreover, the effect on aggregate labor productivity of the reallocation of employment between the two sectors could only have been reinforced by the impacts on the same of the rise in the employment share of microenterprises. The effect was also strengthened by a parallel employment shift across the age distribution of enterprises that raised sharply the employment share of established firms at the expense of younger ones and startups. Not only was labor consistently less productive in microenterprises than in small and medium enterprises and larger enterprises across all industries throughout the period, it was also typically less productive in more established firms than in younger ones.
Oxford Nanopore sequencing, hybrid error correction, and de novo assembly of a eukaryotic genome

Monitoring the progress of DNA molecules through a membrane pore has been postulated as a method for sequencing DNA for several decades. Recently, a nanopore-based sequencing instrument, the Oxford Nanopore MinION, has become available, and we used this for sequencing the Saccharomyces cerevisiae genome. To make use of these data, we developed a novel open-source hybrid error correction algorithm Nanocorr specifically for Oxford Nanopore reads, because existing packages were incapable of assembling the long read lengths (5-50 kbp) at such high error rates (between ∼5% and 40% error). With this new method, we were able to perform a hybrid error correction of the nanopore reads using complementary MiSeq data and produce a de novo assembly that is highly contiguous and accurate: The contig N50 length is more than ten times greater than an Illumina-only assembly (678 kb versus 59.9 kbp) and has >99.88% consensus identity when compared to the reference. Furthermore, the assembly with the long nanopore reads presents a much more complete representation of the features of the genome and correctly assembles gene cassettes, rRNAs, transposable elements, and other genomic features that were almost entirely absent in the Illumina-only assembly.
Randomized controlled pilot trial of mindfulness-based stress reduction for breast and colorectal cancer survivors: effects on cancer-related cognitive impairment.

Cancer-related cognitive impairment (CRCI) is a common, fatigue-related symptom that disrupts cancer survivors’ quality of life. Few interventions for CRCI exist. As part of a randomized pilot study targeting cancer-related fatigue, the effects of mindfulness-based stress reduction (MBSR) on survivors’ cognitive outcomes were investigated. Breast and colorectal cancer survivors (n = 71) with moderate-to-severe fatigue were randomized to MBSR (n = 35) or a fatigue education and support (ES; n = 36) condition. The Attentional Function Index (AFI) and the Stroop test were used to assess survivors’ cognitive function at baseline (T1), after the 8-week intervention period (T2), and 6 months later (T3) using intent-to-treat analysis. Mediation analyses were performed to explore mechanisms of intervention effects on cognitive functioning. MBSR participants reported significantly greater improvement on the AFI total score compared to ES participants at T2 (d = 0.83, p = 0.001) and T3 (d = 0.55, p = 0.021). MBSR also significantly outperformed ES on most AFI subscales, although both groups improved over time. MBSR produced greater Stroop accuracy rates relative to ES at T2 (r = 0.340, p = 0.005) and T3 (r = 0.280, p = 0.030), with improved accuracy over time only for the MBSR group. There were no significant differences in Stroop reaction time between groups. Improvements in mindfulness mediated the effect of group (e.g., MBSR vs. ES) on AFI total score at T2 and T3. Additional randomized trials with more comprehensive cognitive measures are warranted to definitively assess the efficacy of MBSR for CRCI. This pilot study has important implications for all cancer survivors as it is the first published trial to show that MBSR offers robust and durable improvements in CRCI.
Clinical Course of Fetal Hydrocephalus: 40 Cases

The clinical course and outcome of hydrocephalus diagnosed in utero is not well understood. To approach this problem 40 cases were reviewed of intrauterine fetal hydrocephalus diagnosed with sonography, and follow-up information was obtained regarding them. Sonograms were evaluated for cerebral dimensions, biparietal diameter, brain mantle size, ventricular ratio, amount of amniotic fluid, and associated abnormalities. Neonatal brain sonograms and computed tomographic (CT) scans were reviewed also. Clinical charts were reviewed for maternal age and parity, referral source, family history, fetal age at diagnosis and delivery, mode of delivery, physical examination and/or autopsy findings, karyotype, amniotic alpha, fetoprotein level, cause of death, shunt placement after birth, and status of live infants. The observations indicate that the prognosis for fetal hydrocephalus is poor. Only six infants (15%) were alive after an average follow-up of 13 months. Three children were normal and the other three had neurologic abnormalities ranging from severe (paralysis and incontinence) to minimal (2-3 months delayed motor development). Thirty-four fetuses or neonates died. Nine families elected to terminate pregnancy. Ten opted for decompression at delivery for progressive hydrocephalus. Neural tube defects were present in 12 of 23 infants at delivery. Fourteen other infants had additional significant congenital abnormalities. Other abnormal sonographic findings included polyhydramnios (13 of 38), oligohydramnios or decreased fluid (nine of 38), neural tube defect (nine of 40), and other congenital abnormalities (nine of 40). These findings indicate that hydrocephalus diagnosed in utero by sonography is caused by a heterogeneous group of disorders. In general, the prognosis for normal development is poor. Individual prognoses, however, depend on the specific malformations and the interventions used.
Minimum-Weight Design of Beams for Deflection

Design procedures for minimum weight statically determinate beams are developed using deflection criterion; optimum flange width and web thickness variations are given for I-beams designed with respect to bending and shear deflection; stiffness and strength properties.
Trade and Interdependence in a Spatially Complex World

This paper presents an analytic solution framework applicable to a wide variety of general equilibrium international trade models, including those of Krugman (1980), Eaton and Kortum (2002), Anderson and van Wincoop (2003), and Melitz (2003), in multi-location cases. For asymptotically power-law trade costs and in the large-space limit, it is shown that there are parameter thresholds where the qualitative behavior of the model economy changes. In the case of the Krugman (1980) model, the relevant parameter is closely related to the elasticity of substitution between different varieties of goods. The geographic reach of economic shocks changes fundamentally when the elasticity crosses a critical threshold: below this point shocks are felt even at long distances, while above it they remain local. The value of the threshold depends on the approximate dimensionality of the spatial configuration. This paper bridges the gap between empirical work on international and intranational trade, which frequently uses data sets involving large numbers of locations, and the theoretical literature, which has analytically examined solutions to the relevant models with realistic trade costs only for the case of very few locations.
Transmission policy in the United States

Abstract This paper provides an overview of the development of electric power transmission access, pricing and investment policies in the US over the last 15 years and evaluates the current state of those policies. Pre-liberalization transmission access and pricing policies are reviewed first since more recent policies have evolved from them. FERC's efforts to ensure that transmission owning utilities provide non-discriminatory access and pricing to wholesale transmission customers, culminating in Order 888 and 889 are discussed. These rules did not respond to problems created by a highly balkanized transmission system and only partially responded to problems caused by common ownership and operation of transmission networks with generating and marketing businesses in the same regions. These problems motivated FERC to seek to create Regional Transmission Organizations (RTO) meeting a long list of criteria related to governance, network operations, transmission pricing and investment as reflected in Order 2000. The slow pace of “voluntary” reform following Order 2000 led FERC to issue a proposed Standard Market Design Rule (SMD) which provided more detailed prescriptions for wholesale market design, network operations, regional planning, resource adequacy, and transmission investment. The SMD rule confronted enormous resistance from groups of utilities and states that had not embraced an electricity sector liberalization agenda. However, many of the provisions of the SMD are being implemented by the RTOs and ISOs in the Northeast and Midwest. PJM's market rules and transmission pricing, planning and investment policies are reviewed as an articulation of FERC's RTO and SMD visions.
Rural-Urban Migration with Behavioral Preferences

This paper incorporates the behavioral labor economic perspective into the traditional Harris-Todaro rural-urban migration model. We study cases in which one's utility is not only determined by his own wage, but also by wages of others. In our theoretical models, rural-urban migration is driven by the expected utility differential, instead of the expected wage differential. We find that the conventional ``Harris-Todaro equilibrium' (in which the rural wage equals the expected urban wage) always exists, but there are two other possible equilibria, in which the rural wage can be either greater or less than the expected urban wage. Moreover, we show that if lower-income players gain utility from the wage differential, i.e., they are altruistic towards higher-income players, and the degree of altruism is sufficiently large, then the two equilibria in which the rural wage differs from the expected urban wage are stable, and the Harris-Todaro equilibrium is not stable.
Asymptotics for a class of dynamic recurrent event models

Asymptotic properties, both consistency and weak convergence, of estimators arising in a general class of dynamic recurrent event models are presented. The class of models take into account the impact of interventions after each event occurrence, the impact of accumulating event occurrences, the induced informative and dependent right-censoring mechanism due to the data-accrual scheme, and the effect of covariate processes on the recurrent event occurrences. The class of models subsumes as special cases many of the recurrent event models that have been considered in biostatistics, reliability, and in the social sciences. The asymptotic properties presented have the potential of being useful in developing goodness-of-fit and model validation procedures, confidence intervals and confidence bands constructions, and hypothesis testing procedures for the finite- and infinite-dimensional parameters of a general class of dynamic recurrent event models, albeit the models without frailties.
Past and future rainfall in the Horn of Africa

The recent decline in Horn of Africa rainfall during the March–May “long rains” season has fomented drought and famine, threatening food security in an already vulnerable region. Some attribute this decline to anthropogenic forcing, whereas others maintain that it is a feature of internal climate variability. We show that the rate of drying in the Horn of Africa during the 20th century is unusual in the context of the last 2000 years, is synchronous with recent global and regional warming, and therefore may have an anthropogenic component. In contrast to 20th century drying, climate models predict that the Horn of Africa will become wetter as global temperatures rise. The projected increase in rainfall mainly occurs during the September–November “short rains” season, in response to large-scale weakening of the Walker circulation. Most of the models overestimate short rains precipitation while underestimating long rains precipitation, causing the Walker circulation response to unrealistically dominate the annual mean. Our results highlight the need for accurate simulation of the seasonal cycle and an improved understanding of the dynamics of the long rains season to predict future rainfall in the Horn of Africa.
Manta: rapid detection of structural variants and indels for germline and cancer sequencing applications

UNLABELLED : We describe Manta, a method to discover structural variants and indels from next generation sequencing data. Manta is optimized for rapid germline and somatic analysis, calling structural variants, medium-sized indels and large insertions on standard compute hardware in less than a tenth of the time that comparable methods require to identify only subsets of these variant types: for example NA12878 at 50× genomic coverage is analyzed in less than 20 min. Manta can discover and score variants based on supporting paired and split-read evidence, with scoring models optimized for germline analysis of diploid individuals and somatic analysis of tumor-normal sample pairs. Call quality is similar to or better than comparable methods, as determined by pedigree consistency of germline calls and comparison of somatic calls to COSMIC database variants. Manta consistently assembles a higher fraction of its calls to base-pair resolution, allowing for improved downstream annotation and analysis of clinical significance. We provide Manta as a community resource to facilitate practical and routine structural variant analysis in clinical and research sequencing scenarios. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION Manta is released under the open-source GPLv3 license. Source code, documentation and Linux binaries are available from https://github.com/Illumina/manta. CONTACT csaunders@illumina.com SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.
Do criminally accused politicians affect economic outcomes? Evidence from India

Abstract We study the causal impact of electing criminally accused politicians to state legislative assemblies in India on the subsequent economic performance of their constituencies. Using data on the criminal background of candidates running in state assembly elections for the period 2004–2008 period and a constituency-level measure of economic activity proxied by the intensity of night-time lights, we employ a regression discontinuity design and find that narrowly electing a criminally accused politician lowers the growth of the intensity of night-time lights by about 24 percentage points (approximately 2.4 percentage point lower GDP growth). The negative impact is more pronounced for legislators who are accused of serious or financial charges, have multiple accusations, are from the non-ruling party, have less than a college education, or have below median wealth. Overall, we find that the effect appears to be concentrated in the less developed and the more corrupt states. Similar findings emerge for the provision of public goods using data on India's major rural roads construction program.
The Evolution of U.S. Monetary Policy: 2000 - 2007

Abstract A vector autoregression with time-varying parameters is used to characterize changes in Federal Reserve policy that occurred from 2000 through 2007 and describe how they affected the performance of the U.S. economy. Declining coefficients in the model׳s estimated policy rule point to a shift in the Fed׳s emphasis away from stabilizing inflation over this period. More importantly, however, the Fed held the federal funds rate persistently below the values prescribed by this rule. Under this more discretionary policy, inflation overshot its target and the funds rate followed a path reminiscent of the “stop-go” pattern that characterized Fed behavior prior to 1979.
An information-based theory of international currency

Abstract This paper develops an information-based theory of international currency based on search frictions, private trading histories, and imperfect recognizability of assets. Using an open-economy search model with multiple competing currencies, the value of each currency is determined without requiring agents to use a particular currency to purchase a country's goods. Strategic complementarities in portfolio choices and information acquisition decisions generate multiple equilibria with different types of payment arrangements. While some inflation can benefit the country issuing an international currency, the threat of losing international status puts an inflation discipline on the issuing country. When monetary authorities interact in a simple policy game, the temptation to inflate can lead optimal policy to deviate from the Friedman rule. The calibrated model can produce a welfare cost of losing international status for the issuing country larger than previous findings, though estimates depend critically on inflation rates and information costs.
Distribution of particle displacements due to swimming microorganisms.

The experiments of Leptos et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 103, 198103 (2009)] show that the displacements of small particles affected by swimming microorganisms achieve a non-Gaussian distribution, which nevertheless scales diffusively---the ``diffusive scaling.'' We use a simple model where the particles undergo repeated ``kicks'' due to the swimmers to explain the shape of the distribution as a function of the volume fraction of swimmers. The net displacement is determined by the inverse Fourier transform of a single-swimmer characteristic function. The only adjustable parameter is the strength of the stresslet term in our spherical squirmer model. We give a criterion for convergence to a Gaussian distribution in terms of moments of the drift function and show that the experimentally observed diffusive scaling is a transient related to the slow crossover of the fourth moment from a ballistic to a linear regime with path length. We also present a simple model, with logarithmic drift function, that can be solved analytically.
Nitrone Cycloadditions of 1,2-Cyclohexadiene

We report the first 1,3-dipolar cycloadditions of 1,2-cyclohexadiene, a rarely exploited strained allene. 1,2-Cyclohexadiene is generated in situ under mild conditions and trapped with nitrones to give isoxazolidine products in synthetically useful yields. The reactions occur regioselectively and exhibit a notable endo preference, thus resulting in the controlled formation of two new bonds and two stereogenic centers. DFT calculations of stepwise and concerted reaction pathways are used to rationalize the observed selectivities. Moreover, the strategic manipulation of nitrone cycloadducts demonstrates the utility of this methodology for the assembly of compounds bearing multiple heterocyclic units. These studies showcase the exploitation of a traditionally avoided reactive intermediate in chemical synthesis.
Domestic Market Integration and the Law of One Price in Brazil

ABSTRACTThis article presents the first assessment of domestic market integration in Brazil using the law of one price. The law of one price is tested using two panel unit root methodologies and a unique data set comprising price indices for 51 products across 11 metro-areas. We find that the law holds for most tradable products and, not surprisingly, nontradable products are found to be less likely to satisfy the law of one price. While these findings are consistent with evidence found for other countries, price convergence occurs very slowly in Brazil, suggesting relatively limited domestic market integration.
A Game Theoretic Model for Defending Against Stealthy Attacks with Limited Resources

Stealthy attacks are a major threat to cyber security. In practice, both attackers and defenders have resource constraints that could limit their capabilities. Hence, to develop robust defense strategies, a promising approach is to utilize game theory to understand the fundamental trade-offs involved. Previous works in this direction, however, mainly focus on the single-node case without considering strict resource constraints. In this paper, a game-theoretic model for protecting a system of multiple nodes against stealthy attacks is proposed. We consider the practical setting where the frequencies of both attack and defense are constrained by limited resources, and an asymmetric feedback structure where the attacker can fully observe the states of nodes while largely hiding its actions from the defender. We characterize the best response strategies for both attacker and defender, and study the Nash Equilibria of the game. We further study a sequential game where the defender first announces its strategy and the attacker then responds accordingly, and design an algorithm that finds a nearly optimal strategy for the defender to commit to.
Data Mining Pt. Reyes Buoy for Rare Wave Groups

This paper addresses the existence of rare wave groups by examining time series data from the Pt. Reyes buoy. The buoy is operated by the Coastal Data Information Program (CDIP), University of California San Diego. The definition of rare wave groups, as defined by Kim and Troesch, used in this paper differs from the more commonly used wave group definition based on threshold crossings. With the time series data from the Pt. Reyes buoy, these rare wave groups are shown to be a naturally occurring phenomenon. The essential features of the data are examined, as well as the analysis methods and findings. By sifting through 17 years of wave elevation data from the Pt. Reyes buoy, this preliminary work addresses not only the question to what extent rare wave groups exist in nature but also what their probability of occurrence is.
Climate Change Policy: What Do the Models Tell Us?

†Very little. A plethora of integrated assessment models (IAMs) have been constructed and used to estimate the social cost of carbon (SCC) and evaluate alternative abatement policies. These models have crucial flaws that make them close to useless as tools for policy analysis: certain inputs (e.g., the discount rate) are arbitrary, but have huge effects on the SCC estimates the models produce; the models’ descriptions of the impact of climate change are completely ad hoc, with no theoretical or empirical foundation; and the models can tell us nothing about the most important driver of the SCC, the possibility of a catastrophic climate outcome. IAM-based analyses of climate policy create a perception of knowledge and precision, but that perception is illusory and misleading. ( JEL C51, Q54, Q58)
Proof of a new colour decomposition for QCD amplitudes

Recently, Johansson and Ochirov conjectured the form of a new colour decom-position for QCD tree-level amplitudes. This note provides a proof of that conjecture. The proof is based on ‘Mario World’ Feynman diagrams, which exhibit the hierarchical Dyck structure previously found to be very useful when dealing with multi-quark amplitudes.
EVOLUTION OF A STORM-DRIVEN CLOUDY BOUNDARY LAYER IN THE ARCTIC

To investigate the processes of development and maintenance of low-level clouds during major synoptic events, the cloudy boundary layer under stormy conditions during the summertime Arctic has been studied using observations from the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) experiment and large-eddy simulations (LES). On 29 July 1998, a stable Arctic cloudy boundary-layer event was observed after the passage of a synoptic low pressure system. The local dynamic and thermodynamic structure of the boundary layer was determined from aircraft measurements including the analysis of turbulence, cloud microphysics and radiative properties. After the upper cloud layer advected over the existing cloud layer, the turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) budget indicated that the cloud layer below 200 m was maintained predominantly by shear production. Observations of longwave radiation showed that cloud-top cooling at the lower cloud top has been suppressed by radiative effects of the upper cloud layer. Our LES results demonstrate the importance of the combination of shear mixing near the surface and radiative cooling at the cloud top in the storm-driven cloudy boundary layer. Once the low-level cloud reaches a certain height, depending on the amount of cloud-top cooling, the two sources of TKE production begin to separate in space under continuous stormy conditions, suggesting one possible mechanism for the cloud layering. The sensitivity tests suggest that the storm-driven cloudy boundary layer is possibly switched to the shear-driven system due to the advection of upper clouds or to the buoyantly driven system due to the lack of wind shear. A comparison is made of this storm-driven boundary layer with the buoyantly driven boundary layer previously described in the literature.
Relationship between Youth Unemployment and Minimum Real Wage: An Empirical Analysis of the Hungarian Labor Market Using Multivariate Least Squares Regression Analysis

One of the best known predictions of standard economic theory is that an increase of minimum wage decreases employment and thus job opportunities of low-skilled, low-experienced workers. This paper provides an in depth analysis of the dynamics of the Hungarian youth employment. An econometric model is set up, and a Multivariate Least Squares Regression Analysis was performed to describe and predict the market's behavior. It is found that if minimum real wage increases by one percent, youth unemployment will increase by approximately one percent as well. Therefore, the results of the regression analysis supports the theory. It is also shown how the financial crisis, investment, and the number of students studying at universities impact the labor market.
Query-Based Data Pricing

Data is increasingly being bought and sold online, and Web-based marketplace services have emerged to facilitate these activities. However, current mechanisms for pricing data are very simple: buyers can choose only from a set of explicit views, each with a specific price. In this article, we propose a framework for pricing data on the Internet that, given the price of a few views, allows the price of any query to be derived automatically. We call this capability query-based pricing. We first identify two important properties that the pricing function must satisfy, the arbitrage-free and discount-free properties. Then, we prove that there exists a unique function that satisfies these properties and extends the seller's explicit prices to all queries. Central to our framework is the notion of query determinacy, and in particular instance-based determinacy: we present several results regarding the complexity and properties of it.When both the views and the query are unions of conjunctive queries or conjunctive queries, we show that the complexity of computing the price is high. To ensure tractability, we restrict the explicit prices to be defined only on selection views (which is the common practice today). We give algorithms with polynomial time data complexity for computing the price of two classes of queries: chain queries (by reducing the problem to network flow), and cyclic queries. Furthermore, we completely characterize the class of conjunctive queries without self-joins that have PTIME data complexity, and prove that pricing all other queries is NP-complete, thus establishing a dichotomy on the complexity of the pricing problem when all views are selection queries.
A light-weight forwarding plane for content-centric networks

We present CCN-DART, a more efficient forwarding approach for content-centric networking (CCN) than named data networking (NDN) that substitutes Pending Interest Tables (PIT) with Data Answer Routing Tables (DART) and uses a novel approach to eliminate forwarding loops. The forwarding state required at each router using CCN-DART consists of segments of the routes between consumers and content providers that traverse a content router, rather than the Interests that the router forwards towards content providers. Accordingly, the size of a DART is proportional to the number of routes used by Interests traversing a router, rather than the number of Interests traversing a router. We show that CCN-DART avoids forwarding loops by comparing distances to name prefixes reported by neighbors, even when routing loops exist. Results of simulation experiments comparing CCN-DART with NDN using the ndnSIM simulation tool show that CCN-DART incurs 10 to 20 times less storage overhead.
The structure of voluntary disclosure narratives: : Evidence from tone dispersion

We examine tone dispersion, or the degree to which tone words are spread evenly within a narrative, to evaluate whether narrative structure provides insight into managers’ voluntary disclosures and users’ responses to those disclosures. We find that tone dispersion is associated with current aggregate and disaggregated performance and future performance, managers’ financial reporting decisions, and managers’ incentives and actions to manage perceptions. Furthermore, we find that tone dispersion is associated with analysts’ and investors’ responses to conference call narratives. Our results suggest that tone dispersion both reflects and affects the information that managers convey through their narratives.
Evaluating Diffusion and Aging Mechanisms in Blending of New and Age-Hardened Binders During Mixing and Paving

As virgin pavement material sources become scarcer and costlier, the use of higher quantities of reclaimed asphalt pavement (RAP) in the production of new asphalt mixes becomes desirable. A major concern associated with the use of high percentages of RAP in new mixes is the interaction between age-hardened and new binders because the performance of the mix can be highly influenced by the properties of the composite binder. The objective of this study was to use asphalt binder testing and diffusion and aging theory to investigate the evolution of blending of virgin and RAP binders during asphalt mix production, storage, and placement. The rheological properties of a two-layer asphalt binder sample composed of virgin and simulated RAP binder and conditioned over time at different temperatures were measured with a dynamic shear rheometer. The conditioning process simulated the hot-mix asphalt (HMA) and warm-mix asphalt (WMA) time–temperature paths during mixing, storage, and placement. The diffusion and agin...
Phytic Acid and Inorganic Phosphate Composition in Soybean Lines with Independent IPK1 Mutations

Soybean seeds contain a large amount of P, which is stored as phytic acid (PA). Phytic acid is indigestible by nonruminant livestock and considered an antinutritional factor in soybean meal. Several low PA soybean lines have been discovered, but many of these lines have either minor reductions in PA or inadequate germination and emergence. The reduced PA phenotype of soybean line Gm-lpa-ZC-2 was previously shown to be the result of a mutation in a gene encoding an inositol pentakisphosphate 2-kinase on chromosome 14 (14IPK1). While the 14IPK1 mutation was shown to have no impact on germination and emergence, the reduction in PA was modest (up to 50%). Our objective was to determine the effect on seed P partitioning for a novel mutation of an independent IPK1 gene on chromosome six (06IPK1) on its own and in combination with mutant alleles of the 14IPK1. We developed soybean populations and conducted genotype and phenotype association analyses based on the genotype of the 06IPK1 and 14IPK1 genes and the seed P partitioning profile. The lines with both mutant IPK1 genes had very low PA levels, moderate accumulation of inorganic phosphate (Pi), and accumulation of high amounts of P in lower inositols. The developed lines did not have significant reductions in germination or field emergence. In addition, characterization of the lower inositols produced in the mutant lines suggests that IPK1 is a polyphosphate kinase and provides some insight into the PA biosynthesis pathway in soybean seeds.
Partial Identification of Finite Mixtures in Econometric Models

We consider partial identification of finite mixture models in the presence of an observable source of variation in the mixture weights that leaves component distributions unchanged, as is the case in large classes of econometric models. We first show that when the number J of component distributions is known a priori, the family of mixture models compatible with the data is a subset of a J(J1)-dimensional space. When the outcome variable is continuous, this subset is defined by linear constraints, which we characterize exactly. Our identifying assumption has testable implications, which we spell out for J=2. We also extend our results to the case when the analyst does not know the true number of component distributions and to models with discrete outcomes. Keywords. Partial identification, finite mixture models. JEL classification. C24.