Applying network theory to epidemics: control measures for Mycoplasma pneumoniae outbreaks.

We introduce a novel mathematical approach to investigating the spread and control of communicable infections in closed communities. Mycoplasma pneumoniae is a major cause of bacterial pneumonia in the United States. Outbreaks of illness attributable to mycoplasma commonly occur in closed or semi-closed communities. These outbreaks are difficult to contain because of delays in outbreak detection, the long incubation period of the bacterium, and an incomplete understanding of the effectiveness of infection control strategies. Our model explicitly captures the patterns of interactions among patients and caregivers in an institution with multiple wards. Analysis of this contact network predicts that, despite the relatively low prevalence of mycoplasma pneumonia found among caregivers, the patterns of caregiver activity and the extent to which they are protected against infection may be fundamental to the control and prevention of mycoplasma outbreaks. In particular, the most effective interventions are those that reduce the diversity of interactions between caregivers and patients. athematical modeling has a rich and growing tradition in epidemiology (1–3). Because experimental approaches to epidemic interventions are often impractical, and in some cases unethical, mathematical models can provide otherwise unobtainable insights on the spread and control of disease. Recently, considerable interest has been shown in the effect of contact networks on the spread of disease, and particularly in using the so-called percolation theory to model epidemics (4– 10). Agent-based simulation is also being used increasingly to help epidemiologic investigations (11). In this paper, we use both of these tools to assess the effects of epidemic interventions in closed health-care facilities. Mycoplasma pneumoniae is a major cause of bacterial pneumonia in the United States (12). This bacterium, the smallest self-replicating organism capable of cell-free existence, is spread both by direct contact between an infected person and a susceptible person, and by airborne droplets expelled when an infected person sneezes, coughs, or talks. Large, sustained outbreaks of M. pneumoniae have occurred in closed and semi-closed populations such as hospitals, psychiatric institutions, military and religious communities, and prisons (13–15). Public health officials and health-care providers struggle, often with little success, to control mycoplasma outbreaks because of the long incubation period of the organism, late detection of outbreaks, and an incomplete understanding of the effectiveness of various infection control strategies. Effective measures to control mycoplasma outbreaks are needed to limit the associated illness and substantial costs. Previous work has addressed candidate strategies, including infection control practices to prevent the exchange of respiratory droplets between patients and caregivers, cohorting members of the community who display symptoms of a respiratory infection, and antibiotic prophylaxis of asymptomatic members of the community (14–16). The costs of these strategies include curtailed social interactions because of cohorting, undesirable side effects or allergic reactions to prophylactic antibiotics, and a potential increase in the risk for infections caused by antibiotic-resistant bacteria. Studies of these control measures have been limited by incomplete information and participation. Using a network model approach, we show how data on interactions in real-world communities can be translated into graphs—mathematical representations of networks—and how to predict the course of an epidemic from the structure of a graph. We found that the assignment of caregivers to patient groups is more critical to the course of an epidemic than the cohorting of patients. Within our models, the most effective interventions are those that reduce the diversity of interactions that caregivers have with patients. For example, an institution with many wards can avoid a large outbreak by confining caregivers to work in only one or very few wards. The Model