Future Rx: optimism, preparation, acceptance of risk

The world contains the energy and mineral resources needed to sustain 10.5 billion (the level the world population is expected to reach in 2100) at a European standard of living for hundreds of centuries. Using physical and chemical principles to extrapolate from what we know, it is shown that the required resources are present, largely in the world’s oceans. The environmental consequences of shifting to ocean supply will be positive, and a transition from fossil fuels to low carbon energy sources is provided by natural gas. The eventual steps required are big (thousands of nuclear reactors, country-size solar facilities in desert areas, large mining operations) and there are risks, but the risks are small compared with failing to meet the expectations of a growing world. The best course is to aim for success (all at European standard by 2113), accept and manage the risks of development, solving unforeseen problems as they arise, accept the transition to gas, and train and engage the best talents to prepare to tap the ocean’s resources. Gold Open Access: This article is published under the terms of the CC-BY 3.0 license. Generalizations are dangerous, but it is probably fair to say that most people today have come to regard the Earth as a tiny, fragile life raft floating alone in the vastness of space and threatened as never before by a species that has proliferated beyond reason to the point where it is changing the planet itself and threatening its ecological viability. This is a view that plays well to our oldest myths: humans are flawed, the end is nigh, salvation will only come if we repent our evil ways. Yet how much of this is true, and how should we change? The details are missing. The devil is always in the details. Many books have been written about this situation, but surely one of the most insightful, readable and helpful is a very recent one: Earth: A Tenant’s Manual, by Frank H. T. Rhodes (2012). He laments that in our busyness we have not taken the time to engage in conversation and hopes that his book can stimulate informed discussion on how to live harmoniously on our venerable planet. I hope this paper can be part of that discussion. My perception is that what is most lacking is optimism. Rhodes quotes Woody Allen: ‘More than any other time in history, mankind faces a crossroads. One path leads to despair and utter hopelessness. The other, to total extinction. Let us pray we have the wisdom to choose correctly.’ This short paper gives an optimist’s prescription for the future. It argues that our number-one goal over the next century must be to raise all of humanity to a European standard of living, and it argues that the Earth has the resources, in the oceans, to do this and to sustain humanity for hundreds of centuries thereafter. It argues that, if we have the courage to do big things, all of humanity has a fine future. The first section of the paper describes our current situation, establishes the need for the goal of ‘all to an EU standard by 2113’, and culls some of the false (too many humans) from real (energy and mineral supply) challenges to reaching this goal. The second section addresses whether the Earth’s energy and mineral resources are adequate to achieve the goal. It is not easy to assess resource adequacy over hundreds of centuries, but it can be estimated by extrapolating forward from fundamental physical and chemical principles. Doing this shows that we have more than adequate energy and mineral supplies, and identifies our soil resource as perhaps the most vulnerable. The discussion is necessarily quantitative (we want to know if the resources are adequate), but here the focus is on the logic of the analysis. Details can be found starting from the references given. The treatment makes no pretence of being exhaustive. The intent is only to show how a more-than-acceptable future might be secured The third section discusses the transition from where we are now to where we would like to be 100 years from now, and argues that shifting to unconventional gas on the way to non-fossil energy sources makes great sense, will build confidence and construct a good part of the infrastructure that will be needed for the second half of the 100year transition. The fourth section asks why we have found it so hard to chart and take a path forward, or even agree that there is a way forward. It suggests that the main reason may be that we are confused and blinded by specialization, and that we must find ways to deal with this aspect of the modern condition. The fifth section gives my prescription for From: Jenkin, G. R. T., Lusty, P. A. J., Mcdonald, I., Smith, M. P., Boyce, A. J. & Wilkinson, J. J. (eds) Ore Deposits in an Evolving Earth. Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 393, http://dx.doi.org/10.1144/SP393.6 # The Authors 2013. Publishing disclaimer: www.geolsoc.org.uk/pub_ethics what we should do, and the last section provides a short summary. The current situation, the grand challenge