Offering Lung Cancer Screening to High-Risk Medicare Beneficiaries Saves Lives and Is Cost-Effective: An Actuarial Analysis

Lung cancer is a lethal disease that claims the lives of more people in the United States annually than the next 4 most lethal cancers combined, which are, in order, colon, breast, pancreas, and prostate cancers.1,2 In the United States, an estimated 224,210 people will be diagnosed with lung cancer, and an estimated 159,260 people will die of the disease in 2014.3 The incidence of lung cancer increases with age,4 and the risk increases with the cumulative effects of past smoking. Millions of Medicare beneficiaries are at significant risk.5 On December 31, 2013, lung cancer screening using low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) was rated as a level “B” recommendation by the US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF),6 a panel of independent experts convened by the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality to evaluate the strength of evidence and the balance of benefits and harms of preventive services.7 The USPSTF recommendation applies to people aged 55 to 80 years with a history of heavy smoking.6 LDCT is an imaging technology that enables 3-dimensional visualization of internal body structures, including the lungs, using low doses of radiation. Under the Affordable Care Act, the “B” recommendation means that LDCT lung cancer screening must be covered without cost-sharing by qualified health plans starting January 1, 2015.6,8 Qualified health plans include commercial insurance and self-insured benefit plans, with the exclusion of grandfathered plans. Several private insurers have initiated LDCT screening coverage in advance of the 2015 requirement.9 Furthermore, versions of the USPSTF recommendations have been adopted essentially by every major academic body with an interest in lung cancer, including the National Comprehensive Cancer Network, American Association for Thoracic Surgery, American College of Radiology, Society of Thoracic Surgeons, International Association for the Study of Lung Cancer, American College of Chest Physicians, and the American Cancer Society. Medicare has begun a national coverage analysis to determine whether LDCT lung cancer screening meets its criteria for coverage, which includes whether screening is reasonable and necessary for early detection, whether the service has an “A” or a “B” recommendation by the USPSTF, and whether screening is appropriate for Medicare beneficiaries. High doses of radiation can be harmful. LDCT can be performed at very low doses of <0.7 mSv per procedure10 by comparison, the annual natural background radiation in New York City (sea level) is 3 mSv. LDCT technology refinements and protocol optimization have translated into patient benefits, supporting the detection of ever-smaller lung cancers, reducing the rate of surgical procedures, and providing higher cure rates.11–14 Advances in LDCT technology, promising results from nonrandomized trials,14 and unchanged survival statistics over the previous 30 years, led to the implementation of the National Lung Screening Trial (NLST), the most expensive and one of the largest randomized screening trials ever sponsored by the National Cancer Institute.13 The trial of 53,454 people aged 55 to 74 years at high risk for lung cancer was conducted to determine whether LDCT screening could reduce mortality from lung cancer. Participants in this 2-arm US study received 3 annual screenings with either an LDCT or a chest x-ray. Based on the study protocol, the trial was stopped when findings demonstrated a relative reduction of 20% in lung cancer mortality in the LDCT arm versus the chest x-ray arm.13 Observational data and epidemiologic arguments for breast cancer also suggest that additional rounds of screening would reduce lung cancer mortality by much more than 20%.15–22 Other large studies have shown that computed tomography (CT) screening is associated with a high proportion (much higher than 70%) of the lung cancer diagnoses being early stage15–17,21 compared with 15% in the national data.23 Long-term survival rates of approximately 80% have been reported for patients with lung cancer who are diagnosed by CT screening12,15,16 compared with a 16.8% 5-year survival rate from the national data.23 KEY POINTS ▸ Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer death in the United States and worldwide. ▸ Because the risk increases with age and with a history of smoking, some Medicare beneficiaries are at high risk for this type of cancer. ▸ Low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) has been shown to reduce mortality from lung cancer by more than 20%. ▸ Under healthcare reform, LDCT must be covered without cost-sharing by nongrandfathered commercial health plans beginning in 2015. ▸ Based on this new analysis, LDCT screening of high-risk Medicare beneficiaries is cost-effective and will cost approximately $1 per member per month. ▸ The average annual cost of such a screening policy is estimated to be $241 for a Medicare beneficiary screened. ▸ Given all causes of mortality, without screening, Medicare patients newly diagnosed with lung cancer have an average of 3 years life expectancy. ▸ With screening, these patients would have an additional 4 years of additional life expectancy incremental to the life expectancy without screening. ▸ If all eligible beneficiaries had been screened and treated consistently from age 55 years, approximately 358,134 additional individuals with current or past lung cancer would be alive in 2014. One of the coauthors of this article was the lead author of an actuarial analysis of LDCT lung cancer screening for the commercially insured population.24 This report used similar methodology, types of structures, and data to examine lung cancer screening for the Medicare program. The Medicare program faces significant budget limitations, and any new coverage benefit will face scrutiny regarding its costs and benefits. The purpose of the present study was to estimate the hypothetical 2014 costs and benefits associated with the responsible implementation of widespread lung cancer screening in the high-risk US population covered by Medicare.