20th Century variability of Atlantic Meridional overturning circulation: Planetary wave influences on world ocean surface phosphate utilization and synchrony of small pelagic fisheries

Abstract The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), part of the global Thermohaline Circulation (THC), is variable. In the present analysis, an Atlantic Dipole Phosphate Utilization (ADPU) index, related to the existing Atlantic Dipole Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly (ADSA) index, is used to represent 20th century changes in AMOC strength that are applied to global ecosystem variability. ADPU index cycles set the timing for the calculation of six 2° latitude–longitude resolution world ocean maps depicting higher surface phosphate utilization (SPU) in some regions when AMOC is weaker and in other regions when AMOC is stronger. The average of these six maps yields a summary map with a pattern of alternating latitudinal SPU regions differentiated by AMOC strength that exhibits relationships with ocean bathymetry and wind-driven currents through a consideration of the THC deep and shallow limbs. The latitudinal pattern of SPU regions exhibits conceptual associations with sardine (S) and anchovy (A) population ranges off Japan (J), California (C), Peru (P) and South Africa (B). These sardine and anchovy populations have exhibited apparently synchronous fluctuations on decadal scales through at least part of the 20th century that is summarized in a Regime Indicator Series (RIS=(JS+CS+PS+BA)–(JA+CA+PA+BS)) index. In the present analysis based on Food & Agriculture Organization (FAO) catch data, a revised Regime Indicator Series index formulation (RIS3=(JS+CA+PS+BA)–(JA+CS+PA+BS)), in which CS and CA catches reverse positions, is defined. AMOC variability represented in ADPU is significantly correlated with the RIS3 index (no lag but a significant range of 14 years) and four of eight small pelagic fisheries (JS, PS, BA, and JA). The post-1950 RIS3 index is significantly correlated with seven of eight small pelagic fisheries but not CS. When the regional small pelagic fisheries are considered as normalized species differences (S-A), ADPU has significant positive correlations with Japan and Peru, and negative tendencies with California and South Africa, while the RIS3 index has significant positive correlations with Japan and Peru and significant negative correlations with California and South Africa. An extended RIS3 index, with pre-1950 catch data based only on Japan and California, continues a coherent, significantly correlated trend with the APDU index through 1920 (no lag but a significant range of 14 years). Though the mechanisms for multidecadal global synchrony are speculative, the global pattern of cyclical AMOC-related, alternating latitudinal SPU regions through the 20th century and the correlation of the ADPU index with the RIS3 and the extended RIS3 indices suggest a link between varying AMOC strength, ocean fertility and global marine ecosystem response. Signals from AMOC variability due to changes in both deep and shallow limb flow intensities propagate as Rossby and Kelvin waves through the Atlantic Ocean and possibly into the Indo-Pacific Ocean. Similar Rossby and Kelvin wave generation outside the Atlantic Ocean as a result of concurrent but complex global THC variability could reinforce AMOC-related planetary waves and contribute to the multidecadal global synchrony of ocean state and of responsive ecosystems. If present patterns continue into the future decades, a weaker AMOC associated with global warming would favor sardine off Japan and Peru and anchovy off California and South Africa.