cssi/SciSciGPT-SciSciNet huggingface dataset:
Text editing and beyond: a study in logic modeling

Abstract This paper presents a logic modeling exercise in which we develop, test and implement a logic model for a text editor and use it to test existing text editing software. We begin by presenting a first order Horn logic axiomatization of a text editor by providing domain equations for the primitive operations insert, delete and character retrieval . We show that this logic model captures the essential aspects of the text editing task and how more complex features are built using these primitives. We discuss possible implementations and conclude that any operational semantics — the set of algorithms that perform the task — must be strongly related to the logic model we present. In other words, each operational semantics constitutes a model of the logic theory. Next, we illustrate the usefulness of the model by implementing a basic text editing system and testing the correctness of an existing text editor. We conclude by describing how we are integrating these modeling techniques into a larger and more complex knowledge-based system.
Insights and Pitfalls: Selection Bias in Qualitative Research

Qualitative analysts in the fields of comparative politics and international relations have received stern warnings that the validity of their research may be undermined by selection bias. King, Keohane, and Verba have identified this form of bias as posing important "dangers" for research; Geddes sees this as a problem with which various subfields are "bedeviled"; and Achen and Snidal consider it one of the "inferential felonies" that has "devastating implications." 1 Among the circumstances under which selection bias can arise in small-N comparative analysis, these authors devote particular attention to the role of deliberate selection of cases by the investigator, out of a conviction that a modest improvement in methodological self-awareness in research design can yield a large improvement in scholarship. The mode of case selection that most concerns them is common in comparative studies that focus on certain outcomes of exceptional [End Page 56] interest, for example, revolutions, the onset of war, the breakdown of democratic and authoritarian regimes, and high (or low) rates of economic growth. Some analysts who study such topics either restrict their attention to cases where these outcomes occur or analyze a narrow range of variation, focusing on cases that all have high or low scores on the particular outcome (for example, growth rates) or that all come at least moderately close to experiencing the particular outcome (for example, serious crises of deterrence that stop short of all-out war). Their goal in focusing on these cases is typically to look as closely as possible at actual instances of the outcome being studied. Unfortunately, according to methodologists concerned with selection bias, this approach to choosing cases leaves these scholars vulnerable to systematic, and potentially serious, error. The impressive tradition of work on this problem in the fields of econometrics and evaluation research lends considerable weight to this methodological critique, 2 and given the small number of cases typically analyzed by qualitative researchers, the strategy of avoiding selection bias through random sampling may create as many problems as it solves. 3
Perennial Outsiders: The Educational Experience of Turkish Youth in Germany

'When you talk about the debate on Turkey’s E.U. membership,' a German of Turkish origin who serves in the Parliament of the European Union explains, 'it immediately becomes a talk about head-scarf issues and building mosques.' This is in part because Western Europe has long considered itself a 'Christian Club.' The treatment of second-generation Turks in Germany and other European countries offers a window into the obstacles that must be confronted and overcome before Turks gain full equality in Europe. Totaling about four million, persons of Turkish origin make up the largest immigrant group in Europe, and virtually all of them are Muslims. So when the European Union rendered Turkey 'eligible' for membership, a long process described elsewhere in this issue, Prime Minister Erdogan proclaimed that the invitation proved Europe was 'not a Christian Club' after all. But what does it mean to call an increasingly secular Europe a Christian Club? To a substantial degree, the culture that unifies Europe today is defined by the “other” who is not part of that culture. The Christian Club, then, may be seen as cultural rather than overtly religious, and Turks may represent the quintessential 'other.' This Article explores the status of Turks who reside in the European Union by drawing in part from the social science literature on the second generation of contemporary immigrants - that is, the children of migrant parents, raised in the receiving society - a field whose practitioners concede it is still 'in its infancy.' This Article focuses on Germany because it is home to more than half of Europe’s Turks, and on youth, because an important test of the permeability of social boundaries is whether the second and third generations of immigrants can cross them. Part I provides an overview of the demography and history of Germany’s Turkish population, and introduces the questions I will be examining. Part II turns to the educational system, focusing on the stratification of students into tracks that have a lifelong impact on career paths and socio-economic status, and the correlation between ethnicity and assignment to the lowest track. Part III examines religious identity within the public school system as played out through the differential treatment accorded to training in Islam during the school day when compared to classes offered to children who practice other major religions. Finally, Part IV explores some lessons one can draw from the experience of second-generation Turks in Germany, and what their apparent lack of mobility augers for the treatment of Turkey as an equal partner in Europe, assuming that it gains acceptance into the European Union. Finally, this Article concludes that despite recent progress, legal and cultural barriers continue to inhibit the assimilation of German Turks into mainstream German society.
Federalism and Kelo: A Question for Richard Epstein

The irrepressible Richard Epstein has been one of the most provocative and wide-ranging of contemporary legal scholars. According to Epstein’s own account, he started out as a natural rights libertarian, but then morphed slightly into a utilitarian. Other important strands of conservative thought have not commanded his consistent allegiance. Epstein has never shown any affinity, for example, to Burkean traditionalism. Moreover, Epstein’s interest in the structural principle of federalism, which favors the decentralization of power where feasible, has run hot and cold. For example, he has sharply criticized the Supreme Court’s Kelo decision that declined to rule that a locality’s misuse of the power of eminent domain violated the federal Public Use Clause. This essay criticizes the merits of the redevelopment project at issue in Kelo, but also argues, on federalist principles, that the Supreme Court of the United States was correct in that instance to decide that it should not be on the front lines of the battle against eminent domain abuse.
Quantum Leap: A Black Woman Uses Legal Education to Obtain Her Honorary White Pass

The nature of privilege is that it is hidden from those who possess it even more than it is hidden from those who lack privilege. Privilege's invisibility to its owner makes privilege difficult to both identify and fight.
Race, Immigration, and the Department of Homeland Security

Despite the wisdom of separating the service and enforcement functions of our immigration bureau, the new tripartite system under the auspices of the Department of Homeland Security risks fueling the "immigrant Arab as terrorist" stereotype, rather than helping to re-establish the reality that noncitizen terrorists, like U.S. citizen ones, are a rare species.
Wrongs of Ignorance and Ambiguity: Lawyer Responsibility for Collective Misconduct

Deliberate ignorance and calculated ambiguity are key recurring themes in modern scandals from Watergate to Enron. Actors, especially lawyers, seek to limit responsibility by avoiding knowledge and clear articulation. This essay considers this phenomenon from the point of view of both business organization and legal doctrine. Evasive ignorance and ambiguity seem endemic to a particular organizational model and to a traditional model of legal responsibility. Developments in both law and business, however, suggest that these models are being superceded. Many of the most dynamic businesses now emphasize practices of "transparency" designed to inhibit evasive ignorance and calculated ambiguity. A major trend in recent legal doctrine, strikingly exemplified by the Sarbanes-Oxley Act, is to strengthen duties of inquiry and clear articulation. The legal profession, however, has strongly resisted these trends with respect to its own regulation. The essay argues that the bar's opposition to many of the lawyer regulation initiatives under Sarbanes-Oxley reflects a misguided attachment to the privileges of non-accountability associated with deliberate ignorance and calculated ambiguity.
Information and the Intermediary: Are Market Intermediaries Informed Traders in Electronic Markets?

A significant but unresolved question in the current debate about the role of intermediaries in financial markets is whether intermediaries behave as passive traders or whether they actively seek and trade on information. We address this issue by explicitly comparing the informational advantages of intermediaries with those of other investors in the market. We find that intermediaries account for greater price discovery than other institutional and individual investors in spite of initiating fewer trades and volume. Furthermore, intermediary information does not arise from inappropriate handling of customer orders by intermediaries. We propose that our findings are consistent with noisy rational expectations models, where agents extract valuable information from past prices. Intermediaries bear little or no opportunity cost of monitoring market conditions, which gives them an advantage in making profitable price-contingent trades. Lower trading costs may also enable intermediaries to trade more effectively and frequently on their information.
Reconfiguring Law Reports and the Concept of Precedent for a Digital Age

Adherence to the "rule of law" entails a strong commitment to consistency - a belief that throughout a jurisdiction and across time judges should treat like cases alike. For over a century, the U.S. judiciary's pursuit of this aim has relied principally upon print law reports. With unsettling rapidity, digital technology has dislodged that system, in practical fact, if not yet in the way lawyers and judges talk and think about case law. This article explores gains one might hope for from a "judicial consistency" system liberated from the constraints of print, likely affects on concepts of precedent, as well as challenges and forces of resistance standing in the way of change.
Accounting-based versus market-based cross-sectional models of CDS spreads

Abstract Models of financial distress rely primarily on accounting-based information (e.g. [Altman, E., 1968. Financial ratios, discriminant analysis and the prediction of corporate bankruptcy. Journal of Finance 23, 589–609; Ohlson, J., 1980. Financial ratios and the probabilistic prediction of bankruptcy. Journal of Accounting Research 19, 109–131]) or market-based information (e.g. [Merton, R.C., 1974. On the pricing of corporate debt: The risk structure of interest rates. Journal of Finance 29, 449–470]). In this paper, we provide evidence on the relative performance of these two classes of models. Using a sample of 2860 quarterly CDS spreads we find that a model of distress using accounting metrics performs comparably to market-based structural models of default. Moreover, a model using both sources of information performs better than either of the two models. Overall, our results suggest that both sources of information (accounting- and market-based) are complementary in pricing distress.
Court Mediation and the Search for Justice Through Law

The trend toward court mediation is remarkable because our civil justice system has traditionally promised justice through law. The promise of mediation is different: Justice is derived, not through the operation of law, but through autonomy and self-determination. When mediation occurs in court, significant policy questions arise: What happens to law? To justice? Do they collapse in the experience of self-determination? If so, what then happens to the promise of justice through law particularly where one or both of the parties are not represented by lawyers? These are the questions I address in this article. My inquiry focuses specifically on the role of law in mediation - how it affects the process, the outcome and, ultimately, the type of justice that parties achieve in court mediation. This subject has been widely noticed, but largely unexamined.
Inducing knowledge sharing in teams through cost-efficient compensation schemes

A natural challenge for firms seeking to implement knowledge management systems is accounting for the interplay of incentives among workers and supervisors. This paper studies this interaction, focusing on the dynamics arising from joint projects, task evaluation, and knowledge sharing, in the framework of a game-theoretic model. We identify conditions under which a firm can minimize the costs of implementing an incentives-based system for knowledge sharing, taking into account the firm’s ability to monitor individual performance. We show that an employer in our framework has a stronger incentive to monitor tasks when relative-performance pay is small and when higher-paid agents are more likely to generate new knowledge.
Say Goodbye…Let's Roll: The Social Dynamics of Wireless Networks on September 11

This article describes the use of wireless telecommunication media within the different locations directly affected by the hijackings on September 11. Comparisons across these different contexts provides an empirical anchor to more general themes concerning the social dynamics of wireless in the unfolding events of this day. An indication is given of how the important social role of wireless phones in this crisis could redefine public views on wireless media and thereby shape policy and regulation in the years ahead.
Does motivation matter when assessing trade performance? An analysis of mutual funds

We relate the performance of mutual fund trades to their motivation. A fund manager who buys stocks when there are heavy investor outflows is likely to be motivated by the belief that the stocks are significantly undervalued. In contrast, when there are heavy inflows, the manager is likely to be motivated to work off excess liquidity by buying stocks. Our analysis reveals that managers making purely valuation-motivated purchases substantially beat the market but are unable to do so when compelled to invest excess cash from investor inflows. A similar, but weaker, pattern is found for stocks that are sold. (JEL G11, G29) Copyright 2007, Oxford University Press.
Political Preconditions to Separating Ownership from Corporate Control

The large public firm dominates business in the United States despite its critical infirmities, namely the frequently fragile relations between stockholders and managers. Managers' agendas can differ from shareholders'; tying managers tightly to shareholders has been central to American corporate governance. But in other economically-advanced nations ownership is not diffuse but concentrated. It is concentrated in no small measure because the delicate threads that tie managers to shareholders in the public firm fray easily in common political environments, such as those in the continental European social democracies. Social democracies press managers to stabilize employment, press them to forego even some profit-maximizing risks with the firm, and press them to use up capital in place rather than to down-size when markets no longer are aligned with firm's production capabilities. Since managers must have discretion in the public firm, how they use that discretion is crucial to stockholders, and social democratic pressures on managers induce them to stray from their shareholders' preference to maximize profits. Moreover, the means that align managers with diffuse stockholders in the United States--incentive compensation, transparent accounting, hostile takeovers, and strong shareholder-wealth maximization norms--are harder to implement in continental social democracies. Hence, public firms in social democracies will, all else equal, have higher managerial agency costs, and large-block shareholding will persist as shareholders' next best remaining way to control those costs. Indeed, when we line up the world's richest nations on a left-right continuum and then line them up on a close to diffuse ownership continuum, the two correlate powerfully. True, the effects on total social welfare are ambiguous; social democracies may enhance total social welfare, but if they do, they do so with fewer public firms than less socially-responsive nations. We thus uncover not only a political explanation for ownership concentration in Europe, but also a crucial political prerequisite to the rise of the public firm in the United States, namely the absence of a strong social democracy and the concomitant political pressures it would have put on the American business firm.
Investment shocks and the relative price of investment

Abstract We estimate a New-Neoclassical Synthesis business cycle model with two investment shocks. The first, an investment-specific technology shock, affects the transformation of consumption into investment goods and is identified with the relative price of investment. The second shock affects the production of installed capital from investment goods or, more broadly, the transformation of savings into the future capital input. We find that this shock is the most important driver of U.S. business cycle fluctuations in the post-war period and that it is likely to proxy for more fundamental disturbances to the functioning of the financial sector. To corroborate this interpretation, we show that it is closely related to interest rate spreads and that it played a particularly important role in the recession of 2008–2009.
International Relations and the Psychology of Time Horizons

Theories of international relations have often incorporated assumptions about time horizons—a metaphor for how heavily actors value the future relative to the present. However, they have not built on a growing body of experimental research that studies how human beings actually make intertemporal tradeoffs. In this article, we present relevant findings from psychology and behavioral economics, notably those of “construal level theory” (CLT), and explore these findings’ implications for three classic questions—international cooperation, preventive war, and coercion. We argue that experimental evidence regarding how people discount future value and construe future events challenges the conventional wisdom on international cooperation. We further maintain that CLT helps explain a longstanding puzzle about preventive wars—namely why they are often initiated too late by declining powers but too soon by rising competitors. Finally, we rely on these findings to explain who wins coercive contests and why compellence is often, but not always, harder than deterrence. Scholars of international relations often embed in their theories crucial assumptions about time horizons, and this article seeks to show what differences it makes if we ground these assumptions in what we know about actual human decision making.
The Limited Relevance of Plain Meaning

In this essay, the author takes the position that linguists' principal expertise - ascertaining how language is used by ordinary speakers of English - is often of little value in interpreting controversial non-criminal federal statutes. Although linguistic techniques might still aid in understanding their meaning, the author's thesis is that extrinsic evidence that is known and accessible to this small sub-community - such as legislative history, established norms of construction, and other evidence about the context in which the legislation arose - is more likely than linguistic analysis to help an outside judge shed light on what Congress meant and how the statute is to be understood. Rather than serving as the principal means of interpretation, a statute's ordinary meaning should be a weal, tie-breaking default factor in most cases, to be used only when the judge cannot confidently interpret the statute based on extrinsic indicia of the legislation's meaning as understood by legislators and those actually subject to the legislation.
Procrastination and Impatience

We use a combination of lab and fleld evidence to study whether preferences for immediacy and the tendency to procrastinate are connected as in O’Donoghue and Rabin (1999a). To measure immediacy, we have participants choose between smaller-sooner and larger-later rewards. Both rewards are paid by check to control for transaction costs. To measure procrastination, we record how fast participants cash their checks and complete other tasks. We flnd that individuals with a preference for immediacy are more likely to procrastinate. We also flnd evidence that individuals difier in the degree to which they anticipate their own procrastination.
MDL as Public Administration

From the Deepwater Horizon disaster to the opioid crisis, multidistrict litigation—or simply MDL—has become the preeminent forum for devising solutions to the most difficult problems in the federal courts. MDL works by refusing to follow a regular procedural playbook. Its solutions are case specific, evolving, and ad hoc. This very flexibility, however, provokes charges that MDL violates basic requirements of the rule of law. At the heart of these charges is the assumption that MDL is simply a larger version of the litigation that takes place every day in federal district courts. But MDL is not just different in scale than ordinary litigation; it is different in kind. In structure and operation, MDL parallels programs like Social Security in which an administrative agency continuously develops new procedures to handle a high volume of changing claims. Accordingly, MDL is appropriately judged against the “administrative” rule of law that emerged in the decades after World War II and underpins the legitimacy of the modern administrative state. When one views MDL as an administrative program instead of a larger version of ordinary civil litigation, the real threats to its legitimacy come into focus. The problem is not that MDL is ad hoc. Rather, it is that MDL lacks the guarantees of transparency, public participation, and ex post review that administrative agencies have operated under since the middle of the twentieth century. The history of the administrative state suggests that MDL’s continued success as a forum for resolving staggeringly complex problems depends on how it addresses these governance deficits. (A prior draft of this article was titled "The Rule of Law in Multidistrict Litigation.")
The Impact of Tax Price on Spending Preferences

In this article, we explore the influence of tax price information on citizen preferences for taxes and spending using mail surveys. We explore the effects on service support when varying levels of cost information. We also observe how the magnitude of service costs influences service support. While the presence of cost information corresponded with lower levels of respondent support for the most costly services, it was associated with higher levels of support for less expensive services. These effects were the same whether the tax price represented the respondent's actual household cost or the jurisdiction average household cost for each service.
Faithful Infidelity: “Political Time,” George W. Bush, and the Paradox of “Big Government Conservatism”

George W. Bush assumed the presidency with the ill-fated political aim of creating a permanent electoral alignment favoring Reagan Republicanism in America by pursuing a “big government conservatism”, agenda with human resource management (HRM) strategies lying at its heart. In the process of setting the other HRM-focused contributions to this symposium in broader context, the authors define the logic of big government conservativism as a strategy for electoral realignment, discuss the place of HRM as a tactical means for advancing that agenda, and place Bush’s efforts in “political time.” In offering an integrative framework for assessing the critical role of the White House, the executive office of the president, and political appointees in redefining the career civil service as a key component of Bush’s big conservatism agenda, we portray Bush’s failed efforts at constructing a permanent Republican political majority as encountering similar dynamics and meeting a similar fate as other “orthodox innovat...
Statistical Inference for Risk-Adjusted Performance Measure

This paper examines the statistical properties of and significance tests for a popular risk-adjusted performance measure, the M-squared measure. Test statistics along with asymptotic moments and probability distributions developed by prior studies are reviewed and their applications to the Msquared measure are discussed. This paper demonstrates through an example that calculation of the analytic test statistic and the corresponding p-value can be performed easily using a spreadsheet or mathematical software. Results of significance tests using bootstrapping are similar to those based on the analytic solutions, suggesting that the analytic solution approach is a useful method for conducting statistical inference. The results appear relatively robust even in small samples.
Five-Star Ratings and Managerial Turnover: Evidence from the Nursing Home Industry

The government-sponsored Five-Star Quality Rating System (FSQRS) aggregates multiple measures of nursing home quality into a standardized overall rating. Previous research has found that the FSQRS affected consumer demand and correspondingly motivated a strategic shift toward competing for higher ratings, most notably among nursing homes in more competitive markets. The primary objective of this article is to provide evidence on whether it produced a complementary change in the weight placed on quality ratings in senior management retention decisions. Using the Florida nursing home administrator files from 2007 to 2013, our analysis reveals that the FSQRS motivated a substantial and significant increase in the sensitivity of administrator turnover to star ratings, particularly in more competitive nursing home markets (JEL I18, L15, J63, G24, G34).
Information acquisition in committees

Abstract The goal of this paper is to illustrate the significance of information acquisition in mechanism design. We provide a stark example of a mechanism design problem in a collective choice environment with information acquisition. We concentrate on committees that are comprised of agents sharing a common goal and having a joint task. Members of the committee decide whether to acquire costly information or not at the outset and are then asked to report their private information. The designer can choose the size of the committee, as well as the procedure by which it selects the collective choice, i.e., the correspondence between agents' reports and distributions over collective choices. We show that the ex ante optimal device may be ex post inefficient, i.e., lead to suboptimal aggregation of information from a statistical point of view. For particular classes of parameters, we describe the full structure of the optimal mechanisms.
Stackelberg leadership with demand uncertainty

We consider a simple Stackelberg model with demand uncertainty only for the first mover in order to compare the advantages of leadership and flexibility, and use an example to provide some discussion about the endogenous order of moves in the presence of demand uncertainty. We find that only when the realized demand is in an intermediate zone does the first mover preserve its advantage; when the realized demand is far from its expected value, the second mover obtains higher profit than the leading firm, as the leadership advantage is dominated by the benefit of flexibility when demand fluctuation is significant. Even with this risk of losing flexibility under significant demand variation, for some parameter values in our model the first firm still has incentive to choose Stackelberg rather than Cournot competition. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Can analysts pick stocks for the long-run?

This paper examines post-revision return drift, or PRD, following analysts’ revisions of their stock recommendations. PRD refers to the finding that the analysts’ recommendation changes predict future long-term returns in the same direction as the change (i.e., upgrades are followed by positive returns, and downgrades are followed by negative returns). During the high-frequency algorithmic trading period of 2003–2010, average PRD is no longer significantly different from zero. The new findings agree with improved market efficiency after declines in real trading cost inefficiencies. They are consistent with a reduced information production role for analysts in the supercomputer era.
The Determinants of the Debt Maturity Decision for Real Estate Investment Trusts

This research uses the maturity of incremental bond issues and the weighted-average maturity of all outstanding debt and tests various theories from the corporate debt maturity literature to discover if real estate investment trust (REIT) debt maturity is influenced by liquidity risk, asymmetric information, personal taxes, and agency problems. The findings reveal that there is little to no evidence for the liquidity and asymmetric information hypotheses; however, there is evidence that personal taxes influence the maturity of REIT incremental debt issues, and agency problems play a role in determining the incremental and average debt maturity of REITs.
The absorption and emission spectrum of the magnetic Herbig Ae star HD 190073

We determine abundances from the absorption spectrum of the magnetic Herbig Ae star HD190073 (V1295Aql). The observations are primarily from HARPS spectra obtained at a single epoch. We accept arguments that the presence of numerous emission lines does not vitiate a classical abundance analysis, though it likely reduces the achievable accuracy. Most abundances are closely solar, but several elements show departures of a factor of two to three, as an earlier study has also shown. We present quantitative measurements of more than 60 emission lines, peak intensities, equivalent widths, and FWHM’s. The latter range from over 200 km s −1 (Hα ,H e D 3) down to 10–20 km s −1 (forbidden lines). Metallic emission lines have intermediate widths. We eschew modeling, and content ourselves with a presentation of the observations a successful model must explain. Low-excitation features such as the Na I D-lines and [O I] appear with He I D3, suggesting proximate regions with widely differing Te and Ne as found in the solar chromosphere. The [O I ]a nd [CaII] lines show sharp, violet-shifted features. Additionally, [Fe II] lines appear to be weakly present in emission. c
UN intervention and the duration of international crises

This article examines the effect of UN actions on the duration of international crises. Four different types of action – assurance, diplomatic engagement, military involvement, and intimidation – a...
Solving the Problem of New Uses

One of the most dramatic public-policy failures in biomedical research is the lack of incentives for industry to develop new therapeutic uses (“indications”) for existing drugs once generics are available. Policymakers and commentators are well aware of this “problem of new uses,” but fail to appreciate its magnitude. Over the past decade, this gap in the incentives for pharmaceutical R&D has become one of the greatest barriers to medical progress. Recent technological advances have allowed researchers to identify hundreds of potential new indications for older drugs that could address critical unmet medical needs. And researchers are poised to discover hundreds more. Developing new indications for existing drugs is much faster, cheaper, and less risky than developing new drugs, and therefore offers the single most promising avenue for delivering new medical treatments to the public. However, pharmaceutical companies invariably lose interest in developing new uses for existing drugs when patients have access to low-cost generics. This article explores the nature and source of this gap in the incentives for developing new medical treatments, showing that it ultimately stems from a simple information problem. At present, the government encourages drug development by granting firms temporary monopoly rights that block generic manufacturers from making or selling imitations of their drugs. The government also makes available an alternative type of monopoly protection for new indications that applies to the act of taking or administering a drug for a new therapeutic use. The latter monopoly rights could provide the appropriate incentives for developing new uses of existing drugs. However, pharmaceutical companies cannot enforce these rights without knowing when physicians prescribe the drug for the patented indication as opposed to some other use. If the government established an infrastructure for pharmaceutical companies to monitor the prescribed indications when pharmacists fill a prescription, those firms would possess the information necessary to enforce patents on new indications, thereby solving the problem of new uses. This article argues that the government could easily create such an infrastructure through the expanding use of e-prescribing software and electronic medical records.
Two Extensive Margins of Credit and Loan-to-Value Policies

Author(s): Gete, Pedro; Reher, Michael | Abstract: We analyze a model of mortgage markets, housing tenure choice, heterogeneous agents, and default with closed form solutions. We uncover new insights which may inspire empirical work, and we ground already established insights in a series of tractable expressions. Then we study optimal loan‐to‐value (LTV) regulation and show that the choice of an LTV cap should balance the opposing forces of access to homeownership and the negative externalities associated with default. Homeownership affordability concerns induce procyclical elements into optimal regulation which attenuate the countercyclical regulation justified by the negative default externalities.
The VIX Premium

Ex ante estimates of the volatility premium embedded in VIX futures, known as the VIX premium, fall or stay flat when ex ante measures of risk rise. This is not an artifact of mismeasurement: (i) ex ante premiums reliably predict ex post returns to VIX futures with a coefficient near one, and (ii) falling ex ante premiums predict increasing ex post market and investment risk, creating profitable trading opportunities. Falling hedging demand helps explain this behavior, as premiums and trader exposures tend to fall together when risk rises. These facts provide a puzzle for theories of why investors hedge volatility. Received January 13, 2017; editorial decision April 26, 2018 by Editor Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.
Mining Face-to-Face Interaction Networks Using Sociometric Badges: Predicting Productivity in an IT Configuration Task

We integrate social network theories and information richness theory to understand which social structures are associated with effective knowledge transfer and higher productivity in face-to-face communication networks. Using novel data collection tools and methodologies, we record precise data on face-to-face interaction networks, tonal conversational variation and physical proximity among a group of IT configuration specialists over one month. By linking these data to detailed performance and productivity metrics we find that 1) network cohesion is associated with higher worker productivity, in contrast to previous findings for email data; 2) cohesion in face-to-face networks is associated with even higher performance during complex tasks, suggesting that social cohesion complements information-rich communication media when tasks are complex; 3) dominant structures for “latent” networks differ from “in-task” networks; and 4) face-to-face networks have more explanatory power than physical-proximity networks. Our research opens new avenues for the measurement of face-to-face interaction and information worker productivity.
INTERPRETING THE PREDICTIONS OF PREDICTION MARKETS

Abstract Prediction markets are futures markets in which prices are used to predict future events. I present the first formal analysis of price determination supposing traders have heterogeneous beliefs, deriving the equilibrium when traders are risk-neutral price takers.
The housing market impact of state-level anti-discrimination laws, 1960–1970

Abstract This paper measures the housing-market impact of state-level anti-discrimination laws in the 1960s using household-level and census-tract data. State “fair-housing” laws were the direct antecedents of the federal Fair Housing Act of 1968, and policy variation across states facilitates estimates of the laws' impact. During the 1960s, Blacks' housing-market outcomes improved relative to Whites', and the proportion of exclusively White census tracts declined markedly, but there is little evidence that the fair-housing laws contributed to those changes. There is some evidence that Black renters may have benefited from the laws, but the bulk of the evidence suggests insignificant effects on Blacks' housing-market outcomes, the level of residential segregation, and the value of property in predominantly Black neighborhoods.
Taming Global Village Risk II: Understanding and Mitigating Bubbles

Asset bubbles and their subsequent bursts have been a part of capital markets since modern capital markets began to evolve some 300 years ago. Although each bubble environment has its own distinguishing characteristics, certain common elements persist over time as the key ingredients of market bubbles— financial innovation, the emotions and psychology of investors, and leverage. The author explores how these features present themselves in market bubbles and the ensuing market disruptions, and offers some suggestions for improving future risk management. Among the recommendations is a strong, yet flexible, oversight framework having the goal of identifying and containing areas of excessive economic risk.
Separate and unequal: The law of "domestic" and "international" terrorism

U.S. law differentiates between two categories of terrorism. "International terrorism" covers threats with a putative international nexus, even when they stem from U.S. citizens or residents acting...
Human Capital and Economic Growth

Abstract Just as accumulation of personal human capital produces individual economic (income) growth, so do the corresponding social or national aggregates. At the national level, human capital can be viewed as a factor of production coordinate with physical capital. The framework of an aggregate production function shows that growth of human capital is both a condition and a consequence of economic growth. Human-capital activities involve not merely the transmission and embodiment in people of available knowledge, but also the production of new knowledge. Its diffusion generates worldwide economic growth, regardless of its initial geographic locus. Contrary to Malthus, economic growth has not been eliminated by population growth. Human-capital accumulation is an important link between economic growth and the ‘demographic transition’.
The Supreme Court in Times of Hot and Cold War: Learning from the Sounds of Silence for a War on Terrorism

Introduction Justice William J. Brennan once remarked that the Court has never fully developed a jurisprudence of national security. It is simply too episodic, he said.1 Our present Chief Justice would, it would seem, largely agree, though his own research shows some greater willingness for the Court to superintend—at least after the fact2—the actions of the executive in times of war or similar crisis. My assignment in this essay was to ask the question slightly differently; namely, has the posture of the Court differed in times of hot or cold war, and if so, how has it differed? As will be evident momentarily, that question is less helpful to our present circumstance than it might seem. Why? Because, frankly, we are in neither a hot nor cold war, but something quite different3—something that has the potential to be not only hot, but blistering, and something which will likely never be fully appreciated as having gone truly cold.
Cyberwarfare and the Use of Force Giving Rise to the Right of Self-Defense

Cyberwarfare represents a novel weapon that has the potential to alter the way state and non-state actors conduct modern war. The unique nature of the threat and the ability for cyberwar practioners to inflict injury, death, and physical destruction via cyberspace strains traditional definitions of the use of force. In order to clearly delineate the rights of the parties involved, including the right to self-defense, the international community must come to some consensus on the meaning of cyberwarfare within the existing jus ad bellum paradigm. After examining the shortcomings inherent in classifying cyberattacks according to classical notions of kinetic warfare, this Comment argues that international law should afford protection for states who initiate a good-faith response to a cyberattack, especially when the attack targets critical national infrastructure.
Frank H. Knight on institutionalism and economics

Frank Knight’s ambiguous relationship to both American institutionalism and to the branch of neoclassical economics that he helped to establish at the University of Chicago has been a frequent topic of discussion and debate (Asso, 2008; Asso & Fiorito, 2004, 2007; Dewey, 1987; Emmett, 2009[2006], 2009; Fiorito, 2009; Hands, 2006; Hodgson, 2001; Rutherford, 2011, pp. 145 150; Samuels & Johnson, 2008). Research in the History of Economic Thought and Methodology has contributed to this discussion by producing course notes from Knight’s Economics 305: “Economics from an Institutional Standpoint” (Samuels, 2005) and now, in this volume, Arthur Bloomfield’s paper on Thorstein Veblen’s work, prepared for Knight’s same course, along with an introduction by Pier Francesco Asso and Luca Fiorito. To accompany the Asso and Fiorito essay, and the
The Impact of News Coverage on Conflict: Toward Greater Understanding

How does news media coverage affect conflict? Despite the pervasiveness of both the media and conflict, the question has received surprisingly little scholarly attention. Yet, at least three disciplinary streams attest to its significance for domestic and international conflict. From a political theory perspective, it is fair to say that conflict is inevitable, both domestically and internationally. For democracies and democratizing nations, conflict lies at their political core. Indeed, classic pluralist theory holds that democracy may in part be defined in terms of the clash of interests within society, each vying for its share of the good life. 1
Betting on Tort Suits after the Event: From Champerty to Insurance

Litigation financing is investment by a stranger into a lawsuit in which she has no interest other than the investment. The common law prohibitions on champerty and maintenance rendered litigation finance illegal for centuries, but today it is permissible in England, Europe, Australia and many U.S. jurisdictions. This article, which was prepared for a symposium on “Uncertainty in the Law” at DePaul Law School, examines one argument against litigation finance, which is that it allows strangers to impermissibly bet on the outcome of litigation. The article first briefly reviews the handful of modern courts that have embraced the “Betting Argument” and their reasoning. It next looks at other examples in law where the risk of a party betting on an outcome provided the grounds (whether pretextual or not) for the prohibition of a contract between two persons. Thus, late Nineteenth Century courts were initially inclined to prohibit commodity futures contracts on the ground that they were a form of gambling. Similarly, life and fire insurance was viewed skeptically as a form of gambling until courts developed a moralized concept of “insurable interest.” The concept of the insurable interest provided rationale for courts to uphold insurance when it preserved what the insured already had and to strike down “bets” that allowed strangers to gain as a result of other’s misfortune. The article concludes by noting that the instability of the tests invoked by earlier courts in the commodities and insurance context suggests that it may be impossible to identify and employ an a priori test for when third party investment in litigation is permissible. However, the article notes that many of the same policy concerns which led courts to accept commodities contracts and insurance contracts should lead courts to allow litigation finance. While the article does not rebut other arguments against litigation finance based on other moral or prudential concerns, it does attempt to quiet concerns based on the Betting Argument.
Beyond the Ivory Tower: Labor Market Returns to Greek Membership

Using a nationally representative sample of college graduates, we estimate the post-collegiate labor market effects of fraternity and sorority membership during undergraduate tenure. We find that, after controlling for relevant factors, former sorority members’ labor market outcomes are indistinguishable from those of other female college graduates. Former fraternity membership, however, is associated with an increased likelihood of self-employment of about 10 percentage points and a sizable wage premium. Former fraternity members are indistinguishable from other male college graduates in terms of the probability of employment, historical unemployment, subjective beliefs of personal job security, job satisfaction and satisfaction with earnings.
To own or not to own your life insurance policy

Abstract Life insurance proceeds are generally subject to the estate tax. An exception is when the policy is owned by the beneficiaries and the insured gives up ownership and control, including the ability to change beneficiaries. Should the insured strategically own the policy contract and potentially subject proceeds to estate and inheritance taxes, or relinquish control, with the beneficiaries owning the policy, and escape such transfer taxes? This paper addresses how the estate tax influences the choice of life insurance ownership. Using samples of estate tax returns, the empirical evidence suggests that those facing high estate tax rates are more likely to forgo ownership and have proceeds excluded from their estates, and provides further evidence on the incentive effect of taxes and in support of the strategic bequest motive.