Men’s economic status and marital transitions of fragile families

AbstractBACKGROUNDMen's ability to fill the provider role remains a consistent requirement for marriage across the class spectrum and cross-nationally. Fiscal concerns appear less salient for transitions to parenthood or to informal unions such as cohabitation.OBJECTIVEThis paper evaluates whether marital expectations and marital transitions of new mothers are associated with the economic characteristics of father.METHODSAnalyses are based on observed and imputed data on fathers from the first two waves of the Fragile Families and Child Well-Being Study. Logistic regression models assess factors predicting mothers' initial expectations of marrying their baby's father, and transitions into marital unions by the second interview.RESULTSMost women expect to marry their baby's father, although estimates are lower when men's data are repaired by imputation. Multivariate analyses find mother's marital expectations are most strongly associated with men's educational attainment, but not with men's earnings at the child's birth. Transitions to marriage are positively associated with men's earnings levels, although estimates are considerably lower than previously reported thresholds. Furthermore, the odds of marrying do not increase monotonically as men's income level rises once missing data are imputed.CONCLUSIONSTheories regarding prerequisites for marriage must better account for growing heterogeneity in the unmarried population. Standard economic predictors of marriage for the overall population are less applicable for this sample of new parents. Ultimately, this study highlights the importance of including information on missing fathers. Excluding them may produce misleading statistical associations between men's economic measures and women's marriage.1. IntroductionThe "retreat from marriage" has been observed in all developed countries, but in recent years commentators have noted an interesting social class change in marriage patterns. The marriage gap between the most advantaged (demonstrated by educational attainment and earnings) and those with fewer economic resources has reversed, so that the well-offare now more likely to be wed (Bracher and Santow 1998 [Sweden]; Goldstein and Kenney 2001 [United States]; Heard 2011 [Australia and New Zealand]; Kravdal [Norway] 1999; McLanahan 2004 [United States]). Explanations for declines in the proportion of adults who are married often reference men's deteriorating economic positions (Oppenheimer 2003), or note the increase in economically advantaged women's likelihood of being married (Goldstein and Kenney 2001; Heard 2011). Though weakening in importance, men's ability to fill the provider role remains a consistent requirement for marriage across the class spectrum (Gibson-Davis, Edin, and McLanahan 2005; Sassler and Goldscheider 2004; Smock, Manning, and Porter 2005), as well as across nations (Heard 2011; Kravdal 1999; Reneflot 2006; Wiik, Bernhardt, and Noack 2010).While various measures of a "good living" are important prerequisites for marriage, fiscal concerns appear to be less salient for transitions to parenthood or for informal unions (Gibson-Davis 2009). At the dawn of the 21st century, a third of all births in the United States, and forty percent or more of births in Denmark, France, Sweden, and the U.K. occurred outside of marital unions (Martin and Kats 2003). The growing prevalence of non-marital childbearing has captured center stage in contemporary public policy debates in the U.S., taken to herald the rejection of the institution of marriage (Nock 2006; Murray 2012; for a European perspective, see Morgan 2000). It is also a concern because in liberal regimes where the role of the state in redistributing wealth is limited (Esping-Andersen 1990), non-marital parenting is associated with negative consequences for children (Brown 2010). Unmarried parents' unions are far less stable than marriages (McLanahan 2011; Perelli-Harris et al. …