Assessing the leadership transition in North Korea: Using network analysis of field inspections, 1997–2012

This paper examines changes in the in the composition of the North Korean elite from 1997 to 2012, a particularly tumultuous period in the history of the Democratic People’ sR epublic of Korea (DPRK). Specifically, the paper assesses the changing composition of the leadership networks around both Kim Jong Il and Kim Jong Un, using data from the entourages that accompanied the great leaders on their “on the spot guidance” inspection tours. The paper finds that there have been significant changes in the leadership elite since the succession of Kim Jong Un. The paper offers some observations regarding the implications these changes have on the receptivity of the regime to a normalization of relations with the West and future economic and political reform. 2014 Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of The Regents of the University of California. North Korea, given its highly secretive nature, has been very difficult for political science scholars to study systematically. Indeed, much of the scholarly inquiry has either been based on anecdotal and impressionistic “readings of the tea leaves” or broad “strategic” predictions on the future of the regime (oftenwithout empirical support). More recently, a newer generation of scholarship has examined North Korean politics more systematically (Eberstadt, 2007; Haggard and Noland, 2007; Noland, 2004) with mostof these focused on the state of the North Korean economy, or its nuclear program, oronpublic opinion using expatriate populations of North Koreans in Manchuria (Noland and Haggard, 2011). This paper, however, focuses on the level of the political elite in North Korea, particularly how the circle around Kim Jong Il, and his successor Kim Jong Un, has changed over time. In this paper I use network analysis to examine how shifts occurred in the entourages around Kim Jong Il over time in response to both external and internal “shocks” to the system e for example, the Great Famine, the institution of economic reforms in 2002, Kim Jong il’s illness and Kim Jong Un’s ascendency to leadership. This paper examines empirically the change in the composition of the North Korean elite from 1997 to 2012, a particularly tumultuous period in the history of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK). The period began with process of the consolidation of power for Kim Jong Il after his official emergence as the new Suryong, or undisputed leader. This followed by the economic collapse of the country and great famine of the late 1990s. Further, the period includes: efforts at economic reform after 2002, a nuclear crisis beginning in 2006, and the illness and selection and ascendency of Kim Jong Un as successor to his father, the “Dear Leader” Kim Jong Il. The first part of the paper introduces the conceptual and theoretical framework, beginning with the issue of whether there is a “reformist” versus“hardliner” cleavagewithin the North Korean elite and a discussion of the basic leader-centric nature of the North Korean state. Second, I assess the changing composition of the networks around both Kim Jong Il and Kim Jong Un. Finally I offer some observations regarding the implications these changes have on the receptivity of the regime to a normalization of relations with the West and future economic and political reforms. Contents lists available at ScienceDirect