Presidential Politics: Constrained by Complexity?

During the U.S. presidential campaign, there has been considerable discussion about the degree of similarity between the platforms of the Democratic and Republican candidates ([1][1]). Mallaby sees the “irrelevant election” as a consequence of globalization, noting that “the next U.S. president will find his ideals on a wide range of foreign policy issues boxed in by new systemic constraints” ([2][2]). This boxing in of the executive office is reminiscent of the complexity catastrophe described by Kauffman in his NK model of rugged fitness landscapes ([3][3]) used to simulate evolutionary patterns in biological systems. In this model, networks are constructed randomly to simulate the large number of conflicting interactions found in complicated systems. Each of the N components is randomly assigned an initial state, is randomly connected to K other components, and exerts at random favorable or unfavorable interactions on each of its K neighbors. Despite these random assignments, systems having moderate amounts of interconnectivity (lower values of K ) can be readily configured to achieve primarily favorable interactions. However, in systems with higher amounts of interconnectivity (higher values of K ), a nagging load of unfavorable interactions becomes unavoidable. In the limit of maximum interconnectedness ( K = N - 1), configurations have, on average, as many favorable as unfavorable interactions, and a given configuration contains no information about neighboring configurations. Hence, overly connected, highly frustrated networks guarantee that (i) a search for better configurations can do no better than a random selection, and (ii) highly favorable configurations simply do not exist. The complexity of the interactions ensures a catastrophic loss of the potential to improve beyond mediocrity. Despite their best efforts to distinguish themselves, perhaps Mr. Bush and Mr. Gore appear similar because large-scale communication, transportation, and economic networks have resulted in a globally integrated political economy, with many conflicting interactions. Globalization is equivalent to increasing the “K parameter” of economic networks, resulting in an uncorrelated landscape of mediocre compromises among political, environmental, and cultural systems. Differences in principle and means become irrelevant as each candidate faces the fact that acceptable solutions to large-scale political problems are, at best, hard to find, and, at worst, nonexistent. Although the platforms of Bush and Gore differ in detail, any policy decision concerning large domestic or foreign programs, such as urban housing ([4][4]) or free trade agreements ([5][5]), will necessarily result in as much harm or risk as benefit ([6][6]). Their platforms seem similar because a highly integrated political economy ensures that any policy will have mediocre outcomes. A Kauffmanian complexity catastrophe also implies that a random casting of votes would, paradoxically, do as well as costly lobbying and political analysis in directing national affairs. 1. [↵][7]1. D. McGregor , “U.S. voters hard-pressed to tell the difference,” Financial Times, London 6 (13 September 2000). 2. [↵][8]1. S. Mallaby , The Irrelevant Election. Foreign Policy (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington, DC, Sept./Oct. 2000), p. 74, 80. 3. [↵][9]1. S. A. Kauffman , Origins of Order: Self-organization and Selection in Evolution (Oxford Univ. Press, London, 1993), pp. 33-67. 4. [↵][10]1. H. Cisneros , Nat. Press Club Speaker Ser., 7 January 1997 (Wave Communications, Alexandria, VA, 1997), p. 12, 13. 5. [↵][11]1. J. Mazur , Foreign Aff. 79, 79 (2000). [OpenUrl][12][CrossRef][13][Web of Science][14] 6. [↵][15]1. J. E. Harrison 1. H. C. Binswanger , J. E. Harrison, Money and Magic: A Critique of the Modern Economy in Light of Goethe's Faust (Univ. of Chicago Press, Chicago, 1994). [1]: #ref-1 [2]: #ref-2 [3]: #ref-3 [4]: #ref-4 [5]: #ref-5 [6]: #ref-6 [7]: #xref-ref-1-1 "View reference 1 in text" [8]: #xref-ref-2-1 "View reference 2 in text" [9]: #xref-ref-3-1 "View reference 3 in text" [10]: #xref-ref-4-1 "View reference 4 in text" [11]: #xref-ref-5-1 "View reference 5 in text" [12]: {openurl}?query=rft.jtitle%253DForeign%2BAff.%26rft.volume%253D79%26rft.spage%253D79%26rft.atitle%253DFOREIGN%2BAFF%26rft_id%253Dinfo%253Adoi%252F10.2307%252F20049615%26rft.genre%253Darticle%26rft_val_fmt%253Dinfo%253Aofi%252Ffmt%253Akev%253Amtx%253Ajournal%26ctx_ver%253DZ39.88-2004%26url_ver%253DZ39.88-2004%26url_ctx_fmt%253Dinfo%253Aofi%252Ffmt%253Akev%253Amtx%253Actx [13]: /lookup/external-ref?access_num=10.2307/20049615&link_type=DOI [14]: /lookup/external-ref?access_num=000084465900007&link_type=ISI [15]: #xref-ref-6-1 "View reference 6 in text"