A Research Note on Desired Family Size

IN VIEW of the declining birth rate evident for several decades, the smaller families now apparent, and the expected population decline if this trend continues, further research into the factors producing the declining rate is needed. It seems fairly obvious that contraception is rather widely practiced throughout the nation and that family limitation is rational rather than haphazard or by chance. Consequently, a married couple's desire for a certain number of children is very important in determining the size of the family. We are told that from three to four children per family are necessary for normal population replacement. Therefore, it would be of interest to know how many children are desired by the general population, and by specific groups and classes. In December, 1936, the American Institute of Public Opinion questioned the population regarding the ideal size of family.' The Institute reported that 32 percent of the respondents desired two children; the same proportion desired three children; 22 percent desired four children; and 14 percent expressed other desires. No differentials were reported for sex, economic class, place of residence, or other factors. Again on April 5, 1941, the Institute used the same question, this time reporting results more fully.2 The results are summarized in Table 1. The Institute stated that 77 percent of all farmers desired three children or more, and 71 percent of persons in towns under 2500 population had the same desire. Only 64 percent of those in cities of over 100,000 desired three or more children. So far this is in line with the actual facts regarding the birth rates which tend to decrease with increasing size of city. But it is rather surprising to find that only 62 percent of those in smaller cities desired three or more children. The probable solution is that a difference of two percentage points between persons in large and in small cities is not a significant difference. One might hesitate to accept the figures which indicate that no families wished to be childless; apparently these persons were eliminated and the percentages computed on the basis of those desiring one or more children. If this were done then we have no basis on which to determine the average desired size of family for the general population. In February, 1943, the students in a sociology class studying public opinion took a poll of the University of Mississippi campus to determine the number of children desired by young men and women in college.3 The technique employed was a modification of that used by the American Institute of Public Opinion. Two hundred and forty students were interviewed, a sample of 26 percent of the student body, and the sample was controlled so as to be representative for sex. An informal control was also exercised so as to obtain a fair cross section of the student body by classes, freshman, sophomore, etc. No attempt to control other factors was made since it seemed probable that in a selected group, such as college students, age, place of residence, religious affiliation, or other factors would not be significantly related. Two questions were asked: "After you have established your own family how many children would you like to have?" "How many children (including yourself) did your parents have?" Table 2 presents the results on the first question. Male students expressed a desire for families a fraction of a point, but not significantly, smaller than female students. The arithmetic mean and standard deviation for males was 2.94 and 1.39, and for females 2.99 and 1.31. These represent a rather wide dispersion from the mean with a pronounced skew to the right as might be expected. The mean and standard deviation for the total of both sexes was 2.96 and 1.36. It is interesting to note that the modal group of females d sired three children, whereas the modal group for males desired only two children. In order to determine whether the person's desire for a small or large family was influenced