Industry environments and new venture formations in U.S. manufacturing: A conceptual and empirical analysis of demand determinants

Abstract Through integration of theoretical perspectives from Austrian economics, industrial organization economics, and organizational theory, this study builds and examines empirically a model of the demand determinants of new venture formations in manufacturing industries. Austrian economics and other writings on market disequilibrium imply that the dynamics of industries create market opportunities that are available to economic actors. The greater the changes occurring in an industry, the greater the opportunities created, and the further the market is moved from an equilibrium state. Entrepreneurship is viewed as the process of seizing opportunities through combinations of productive inputs. The more available market opportunities in an industry, the greater is the potential for entrepreneurial activity and, more specifically, new venture formations. Entry barriers constrain the formation of new ventures by prohibiting new ventures from taking advantage of available emerging opportunities. The inertial properties of existing firms constrain their ability to move toward these opportunities and thereby increase the potential for new ventures to exploit these market opportunities. The empirical analysis utilizes the Small Business Administration's U.S. Establishment and Enterprise Microdata file to test the model on a large sample of U.S. manufacturing industries. Results indicate that dynamic industries have greater new venture formations. More specifically, new venture formations are associated with industry growth, the dynamism of industry niches, and technological development. Moreover, entry barriers were found to strongly constrain rates of new venture formations. Industry capital requirements, concentration, and excess capacity were all related negatively to the formation of new ventures. The hypothesized positive relationship between industry-level measures of organizational inertia and new venture formations was also borne out in the empirical analysis. New venture formations were related positively to the extent of vertical integration in an industry as well as to the failure of incumbent firms to invest in new capital. Overall, the independent variables explained more than 50% of the variance in rates of new venture formations in manufacturing industries. The results support an Austrian perspective on entrepreneurship and imply that demand factors and industry structural variables are important determinants of new venture creations. The results imply that dynamic industries should spawn new ventures, and industries with high sales growth, changing consumer preferences, and rapid technological change should exhibit high rates of venture formations. For potential entrepreneurs, the model presented herein might be a useful guide to focus their venture activities. Entrepreneurs who can spot the fundamental sources of market change can exploit their knowledge for economic gain. Yet, there are a number of difficulties in suggesting that the model presented herein could be directly applied by entrepreneurs. First, it is always easier to estimate the dynamics of an industry post hoc than it is ex ante. For example, whereas it is simple to catalogue the technological change that occurred in an industry over time, it is another matter to predict the nature of future technological developments. Second, entrepreneurial opportunity can persist only if other potential economic actors do not know of the presence of the opportunity or cannot act upon it. Any model that gains acceptance as a means of predicting the presence of opportunities would, through its widespread usage, neutralize those opportunities for economic profit. Nonetheless, entrepreneurs who have that unique capability to spot industry dynamics and associated profit opportunities where others do not will gain from that ability.