Pathways to marriage and cohabitation in Central America

AbstractBACKGROUNDThe notion that increasing prevalence of cohabitation relative to marriage, and increasing age at first marriage are part of a broader shift in societal norms - a second demographic transition - is now well supported by studies focused on US and European populations. Recent research points to the similarly high prevalence of cohabitation in Latin America as perhaps signaling the diffusion of modern ideals and norms about union formation. In Central America this is unlikely to be the case given the long history and enduring acceptance of cohabitation that is unrelated to modern ideals. While there are studies that have documented this history and current prevalence, there is no research examining the intersecting life course pathways from adolescence through early adulthood that lead to marriage or cohabitation. This is not surprising given that available data for Central American countries are not ideally suited to studying the process.METHODSWe use retrospective questions from large, nationally representative Central American surveys (Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua) to establish the timing of marriage or co-habitation and events that are closely tied to union formation. We utilize additive cause-specific hazard models, and predicted transition probabilities based on selected covariate pathways, to study the competing risks of exiting from the status of never in union.RESULTSOur results identify sexual activity and pregnancy as the primary drivers of union formation and indicate that education serves as a protective factor against union formation. We also find distinct differences among countries and a strong indication that cohabitations are less stable unions.(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)1. IntroductionIn Latin America it is, and has been, common for couples to form non-marital cohabita- tions (informal unions) instead of formal marriages. The decades long US and European (relevant to some countries) trend of increasing prevalence of cohabitation relative to mar- riage has been interpreted as signaling a shift in societal norms with associated long-term and short-term impacts on childbearing and contraception, household income, and stabil- ity (see Lesthaeghe and van de Kaa 1986; Liefbroer 1991; Lesthaeghe 1995; Raley 2001; Liefbroer and Dourleijn 2006). Research has documented not only the trends, but also the life course processes leading to cohabitation or marriage, as well as the subsequent impact on life course processes following cohabitation or marriage. While there is now a broad and conclusive literature focused on US/ European populations, there is a dearth of research on Latin America, where cohabitation has much deeper history. De Vos (2000) suggests that inadequate nuptiality data and the perceived complexity of Latin American union behavior may explain the gap in research. Recent descriptive results suggest that Latin American cohabitation trends reflect underlying cultural or economic changes sim- ilar to those driving demographic change in Europe and the US (Esteve, Lesthaeghe, and Lopez-Gay 2012; Quilodran 1999). The trends, however, provide only indirect evidence of the underlying union formation processes at work. Further investigation of the inter- action of life events, or pathways, that lead to the formation of marriage or cohabitation are needed to provide insight into the decision-making process or sequence of events that leads to the formation of a specific type of union.While DeVos' (2000) comment about data limitations is true - there are no longitu- dinal data archives similar to those supporting US and European research - the structure of the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and Reproductive Health Surveys (RHS) provides enough information on timing of key events to support an analysis of life course processes leading to cohabitation or marriage during the formative early adolescent (age 12) to young adult (age 24) period. …