Relationship of personal and situational factors to managers' expectations of organizational change

Summary.-This is a'study of 93 public sector managers' expectations of the effects of rumored changes in policies and operating procedures on their ability to influence program direction and manage staff in heir ofices. Analysis indicated that managers of smaller offices were more likely to expect a decrease in st& morale than managers of larger offices. The mood factor of nervousness (negative activation) was also related to expectations of decreased staff morale. Most research on employees' job expectations focuses on the newcomer (Naughton, 1987; Wanous, Poland, Premack, & Davis, 1992). There 1s much less research on expectations after organizational entry, especially at the time of an ~r~an~zahonal change. The few studies to date suggest expectations may have an important effect on reactions to new programs (see King, 1974; Rentsch & Schneider, 1991). Very little is known, however, about factors that influence expectations. Unlike job newcomers who usually hold unrealistic and "inflated" job expectations, experienced employees may hold a range of expectations from positive to negative depending on the organizational context of their experiences as well as personal disposition. The purpose of this paper is to report fiidmgs on personal and situational factors that may be important for understanding expectations reprd~ng rumored organizational changes. Managers of public assistance and soc~al service programs at the county level in a large midwestern state served as the sample. At the time of this study, public welfare programs were under considerable public scrutiny as chis was an elecuon year that featured many candidates for public office (including governor), whose campaign platforms emphasized reduced spending for most state agencies, particularly state-supported public assistance and social service programs. Because the managers in this study would be required to implement policy changes at the local level, certain questions may arise as to how their inhvidual circumstances might influence expectations of change. For example, managers in counties in which demand for public assistance is high may be more apprehensive about losing influence and maintaining staff morale and cooperation during retrenchment. Further, managers of srnder offices might expect more problems in managing retrenchment because, with a small staff, here is less capability to absorb reduced resources and administrative changes than might be the case in larger offices. Individual differences in experience and mood of the managers may also affect expectations. Managers with less experience in their jobs, for example, may be more apprehensive about the influence of change on their offices, and managers with liegauve dispositions may expect more difficulties in managing change. From a conceptual perspecrlve, therefore, both personal and situational factors may influence managers1 expectations of change. Both organizational records and survey data were used in the analysis. Data were obtained from current agency documents that showed the percent of each county's population on public assistance (M= 10.9%, SD=5.0). In cooperation with top management, surveys were sent by the author to the senior manager of each county public assistance office about two months