Statistics in Army Research Development and Testing

1. Background The Army of the United States was two years old when, in 1777, Daniel Bernoulli introduced the example of the firing of a marksman in a discussion of estimatinig the most probable value for a set of differing observations. (2) A century was to pass before this application would be of serious concerni in any army. But a simipler form of intuitive statistical thinkingclassifyinig, countinig, correlating, contemplating, criticizing, and comnparing of observations has been involved in the subtlest of decisions in all times and places. Cryptanalysis, practiced to good effect in the Revolution, is such a field. For an account of its history by the deani of American cryptanalysts see (5). All standards of performanice and allowances are basically statistical. The allowance for medical supplies in 1803 (7) even indi cates an awareness of the reduction in the extent of percentage chance fluctuations as the mean level increases which was not applied formally until the development of telephone exchanges at the end of the century and hailed as a major contribution of Operations Researci in World War II. The first formal application of quantitative probabilistic technique by military officers was in the essentially civilian field of precise surveying. "Prior to 1825, when Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute was founded, West Point was the only engineering school in the country and eveii after that date its graduates for many years constituted a signiificant portion, perhaps even a majority, of the qualified, civil engineers in the nation" (12). Smith and Ginsburg (13) have observed that ". . . the subject of surveying and map making was the chief application of eleimientary iiathematics in the colonies in the seveniteenth anid eighteenth century", and to a lesser degree till the nmiddle of the ninieteenth century. Jared Mansfield, professoi of mathematics at West Point in 10802-03 anid professor of natural philosophy from 10812 to 1826, hald in 1801 "written the first book conitaining original matheinatical. research in the colonies" and had in the Ohio Survey 1803-1814 applied the rule of taking the meani of "forty to sixty" careful observations with a tranisit to increase the precision of his final estimates. Ferdiinand 1i. Hassler, first head of the Coast Survey (7), taught at West Point in 10807. The Zenith telescope wvas inveilted( by Captain Andrew Talcott while employed on the survey of the northern boundary of Ohio in 10834. I4-) On the North East Bouncldary Survey, Lieutenant William Hemiisley Emory, of Queen Ainne County Maryland participated in 10845 as a miember of the Topographic Engineers in making observations and performing calculations which inicluded determiniing probable errors. (4) The classic Amierican text in least squares, Wright's "Treatise on the Adjustmenit of Observations" was based oni his experience as a civil service employee of the. Corps of Engineers on the "Lake Survey." Wright examines questions of the mnost economical allocation of observational effort which were rediscovered in the context of survey sample design in the 1930's. ('16) Where, down to the Civil War, graduates of West Point served as engineers in and out of uniform, the Medical Service has always been a service of "civilians in uniform." Moderin studcents are seldom-aware of the intense interest of the entire medical profession in statistics of disease before the ascendancy of the germ theory. The definitive history of Army medical statistics has recently appeared (9). Upon the creation of the permanent Medical Department in 1818, a system of reporting of both inedical statistics and weather (climnatological) observations was instituted. A statistical summary anid review of the first 20 years record was compiled in 1839. (9) The climiax of this work was reached in the Civil War, sunmmarized in the six monumental volumes of the "Medical and Surgical History of the War of the Rebellion." The Medical Corps com.1)iled, anid. in 1875 published, a two volume report on "Medical Statistics of the Provost Marshal General's Bureau" containiing the results of the anithropological. exaniination of miiore than a nmillion. nien. Army statisticians were, therefore, responsible for the provision of unequaled anthropometric statistics of Civil War recruits. Others, with the famous "Ariny Alpha" examination, were to performn a corresponidinig service concerning th.e hlumuan intellect in World War 1. One of the most distinguished early statisticians of the Army Medical Corps was Dr. Johln Shaw Billings. (9) Billinigs was loanied to the Census Office of the Departiieiit of the Initerior in conniiection with the compilatioll of the cetnsuses of 1870, 1880, and. 1890. He was r-esponsible for the application] of the calculation of probable errors in centisus work, exhibiting complete conaflan(d of this, as well as of everyother, phase of statistical sCience as it theni existed. It was he who suggested the deevelopmiient of a punched card system ifor the comlpilation of census returns, reclducect to practice by Hermian Hollerith. He left the service as Deputy Surgeon General in 1895, later to enijoy a distinguishecl career as head of the newly .Lorm.-ed NeW York Public Library. In 1931 Brigadier Getieral (then Lieuten1ant Colonel) Albert G. Love )ubhslied. a studty "War CasualX Editor's Note: This is the first in a series of articles (lealing with the historical role and currenit status of statistics in the research progranms of the armnedl services.