TOWARDS AN UNDERSTANDING OF “RALLY” EFFECTS PUBLIC OPINION IN THE PERSIAN GULF WAR

Although research has been conducted to document the effect of international events on the popularity of the president, little work has been done to examine the scope of such effects. This analysis of rally forces during the Persian Gulf War shows significant changes in the following attitudes: positive evaluations of George Bush's and the U.S. Congress's performance, trust in the federal government, assessments of personal finances, and expectations for the economy. Most of these attitudes return to preconflict levels within 10 months. Few doubt that Americans coalesce behind their leaders in times of international crises, but a question arises about the extent and nature of such rally effects. This analysis contributes to the continuing scholarly debate over the meaning of rally events by suggesting an alternative conceptualization that views the effects of such exogenous shocks (e.g., wars) as extending beyond the popularity ratings of presidentsthe dominant focus of most research on rally effects (e.g., Brody and Shapiro 1989, 1991; Mueller 1970, 1973, 1993). My conceptualization emphasizes an important quality of rally events that has heretofore received no attention: Rally events invoke feelings of allegiance toward national political institutions and policies. The term allegiance implies "a unity with the 'central' values, the political processes, the moral integrity of the political system, a loyalty to and support of the going order" (Lane 1962, p. 162). This conceptualization differs from that proposed by other scholars. For example, John Mueller (1970, 1973) conceptualizes rallies as reflections of Americans patriotically drawing together during times of SUZANNE L. PARKER is director of the Survey Research Laboratory and assistant professor of political science at Florida State University. The author wishes to thank Glenn Parker, Karen Rasler, James Stimson, and the anonymous reviewers for their helpful suggestions. Public Opinion Quarterly Volume 59:526-546 ? 1995 by the American Association for Public Opinion Research All rights reserved. 0033-362X/95/5904-0004$02.50 This content downloaded from 157.55.39.104 on Mon, 20 Jun 2016 06:23:47 UTC All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms Rally Effects in the Gulf War 527 crisis to support their chief executive. Richard Brody and Catherine Shapiro (1989, 1991) advance an alternative explanation: Rallies occur because opinion leaders fail to criticize the president's policies; hence, the public receives primarily positive messages about them from the media. The absence of negative elite evaluations indirectly leads to the absence of negative public evaluations, thereby producing surges in presidential popularity. In contrast, I view rally effects as not merely promoting patriotism that elevates the popularity of the chief executive, but also eliciting allegiant feelings toward many of society's political institutions, thereby influencing evaluations of national conditions and well-being. The close association of rally events with the popularity of presidents has led to an emphasis on the behavior of the incumbent that ignores the spillover effects of such events. That is, citizens rally to the support of the entire political system, which leads them to see government policies, societal conditions, and public officials in a far more positive light, if only for a brief period of time. In short, presidential popularity is affected by rally events, but so are popular evaluations of other institutions and even societal conditions. Rally events evoke feelings of loyalty and devotion to the country and political authorities, not merely zealous support for political elites. Citizens respond by putting aside their grievances, frustrations, and fears, and expressing a far rosier view of societal conditions-namely, the performance of national political institutions and the conditions in the country at large. The Persian Gulf War affords the opportunity to explore the extent of rally effects, since it qualifies as the type of event that Mueller has described as leading to rallies: It was "international and involve[d] the United States and particularly the president directly and [was] specific, dramatic, and sharply focused" (Mueller 1973, p. 209).