Did Divorces Decline After the Oklahoma City Bombing

The Oklahoma City bombing in April 1995 was an act of terrorism that had many potential influences on the city and state, including influences on families. We analyzed divorce data from 1985 to 2000 for all 77 counties in Oklahoma to assess the divorce response to the Oklahoma City bombing. Our prediction was that divorce rates in Oklahoma would decrease in response to the bombing, a prediction derived from two different theoretical orientations, terror management theory and attachment theory. We test this prediction in the context of two relatively powerful quasi-experimental designs, an interrupted time series design, and a nonequivalent control group design. We analyze the time series data with polynomial regression. Results suggested that there were lower observed divorce rates following the Oklahoma City bombing than the prevailing 10-year cubic divorce trend would have predicted, with the effect dampening over time. We analyzed the nonequivalent control group design using an analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) linear model to compare counties in and around Oklahoma City to those farther away, and to compare metropolitan to nonmetropolitan counties in Oklahoma. In each case, divorces were lower in the predicted directions. Key Words: disaster, divorce, marital dissolution, Oklahoma City bombing, terrorism. Natural disasters (e.g., tornadoes, fires, floods, earthquakes, hurricanes) are catastrophic events (Stressors) that can challenge the adaptive capabilities of individuals, families, and communities (Monat & Lazarus, 1991). The bombing of the Alfred P. Murrah Federal Building in Oklahoma City on April 19, 1995, was at that time the worst nonwartime man-made disaster in the history of the United States. As a result of this act of domestic terrorism, 168 persons were killed, 19 of whom were children, and more than 700 persons were injured (Tucker, Pfefferbaum, Nixon, & Dickson, 2000). The explosion damaged 312 buildings in a one-square mile area, which resulted in more than $510 million in damage (Sitterle & Gurwitch, 1999). Research on the effect of large-scale community disasters has proliferated over the past several years. Most disaster research, however, including recent studies on the Oklahoma City bombing, has focused on the psychopathology (e.g., posttraumatic stress disorder) of individuals who experienced the disaster (e.g., Nolen-Hoeksema & Morrow, 1991; North et al., 1999; Powell & Penick, 1983; Shore, Tatum, & Vollmer, 1986). There has been little research attention given to the effect of disasters on family and marital relationships-including divorce-and what has been conducted has produced inconclusive results. Some studies (e.g., Aguirre, 1980; Cohan & Cole, 2002; Erikson, 1976; Morrow & Enarson, 1996) found that natural disasters (e.g., tornadoes, floods, hurricanes) resulted in increased marital disruption and divorce, whereas other studies (e.g., Davis & Ender, 1999; Drabek & Key, 1984; Drabek, Key, Erickson, & Crowe, 1975; Taylor, 1977) found an increase in family and marital solidarity following a natural disaster. It is possible, of course, for disasters to result in polarization, leading to simultaneous increases in both marital solidarity and divorce. A few studies, however, found that natural disasters either had no effect on marriage and divorce rates (e.g., Aguirre; Taylor) or led to a decrease in divorce (e.g., Adams & Adams, 1984). These inconclusive findings are perhaps due in part to methodological and measurement variability in the different studies, the use of various units of analysis (e.g., counties, individuals), and the type and magnitude of the disaster examined. Further, most previous research studied the response to a natural disaster rather than a man-made disaster, and only short-term effects were studied, not long-term effects. Nonetheless, in an ecological study of natural disasters, Aguirre failed to find long-term effects of natural disasters on marriage and divorce. …