Emotional Disturbance/Behavioral Disorders and a Delphic Approach to the Future.

This study uses a Delphi technique to estimate the likelihood ot a set of change statements concerning emotional disturbance/behavioral disorders. Using a national random sample of 900 teachers, special education administrators, and school psychologists through two rounds of responses, estimates are made regarding the likelihood and the desirability of the condition represented by each statement occurring by the year 2000. Results are compared by variables of experience in the field, occupation, and level of educational attainment. Despite certain significant differences between groups the preponderant conclusion is that there is general agreement among the population surveyed regarding their expectations and sentiments about the future of the field. While there is no shortage of expert opinion about future trends in the field of Emotional Disturbance/Behavioral Disorders (ED/BD), findings utilizing empirical, predictive method ology are scanty. Reynolds (1978) summarized the results of a federally sponsored confer ence on the future of special education, with emphasis on the implications for personnel preparation, using a collective critique and discussion approach. A similar mechanism was used by Safer, Burnette, and Hobbs (1979) to predict future trends in special education services. O'Shea and Gajar (1983) examined the future trends for special education by using a Delphi approach. These studies, however, are only marginally useful for predicting events specific to ED/BD since they dealt with special education in general. Two studies attempted to predict future events specific to emotional disturbance/behav ioral disorders using existing data. Imber (1981) reviewed all entries in the ERIC database over a one-year period which were relevant to ED/BD. He then made some limited specula tions about ongoing trends. Algozzine and Sherry (1981) reviewed recent literature on assessment and treatment issues, and identified problems that needed to be resolved for further progress in the field. Although primarily a review article, the authors made reference to future research trends by extrapolating from published research over the last several years. Stainback and Stainback (1980) used selected research to support their personal pers pectives about the future. Bullock (1980) in introducing an annual monograph, Rhodes (1975) in concluding a major federal project, and Kauffman (1980) in a discursive article, used these opportunities to speculate about the future of the field. Their conclusions are clearly reflective of their own personal ideologies. Rhodes, Morse, Peterson, and Wood (1982) simply reviewed Rhodes' 1975 prognostications, commenting on his accuracy while identifying what they saw as trends. A similar "panel critique" approach to respond to Rhodes was used in a later issue of Behavioral Disorders (Cannon, 1982; Grosenick, 1982; Howe, 1982; McCauley, 1982; Stockdale & Swanson, 1982). Occasionally, authors of textbooks and chapters in textbooks on ED/BD conclude their work with speculations about the future of the field (Apter, 1981; Rezmierski, 1982; Towns, 1981). Typically, these summations rehash the perspective taken in the text. That is, the authors tend to emphasize in their view of the future, areas and positions that were treated heavily in the text. As such, this type of exposition constitutes closure to the textbook, and does not attempt to approach futures prediction empirically. While the "personal perspec tives" articles and textbook chapters do address ED/BD, they overly reflect the idiosyncra cies and biases of their authors. 198 May 1985 Behavioral Disorders This content downloaded from 157.55.39.211 on Tue, 09 Aug 2016 05:49:14 UTC All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms A second problem evidenced in this review of the available literature is the almost complete reliance on the perspectives of university-based experts. Those who write the textbooks, participate on the futures critique panels, and find forums for the exposition of their personal perspectives are primarily teacher trainer/researchers in university settings. This seems a particularly narrow base for futures prediction. By incorporating the views of others involved in the field (O'Shea & Gajar, 1983), the narrow perspective of a particular group of individuals can be balanced by the perspectives of other groups of individuals. The cumulative result is a view of the future which controls for the biases of any particular group. Questions of where we are as a field and where we are going still persist. The five different theorical perspectives as conceptualized by Rhodes and Tracy (1972, 1973) continue to characterize a fragmented field. Reviewing annual monographs of current research in ED/BD (Rutherford, 1982; Rutherford & Prieto, 1978,1979; Rutherford, Prieto, & McGlothlin, 1980, 1981) fails to reveal significant trends. The Delphi approach employed in this study was used as a methodology to explicate the future of the field without individual or subgroup bias.