Editor's Spotlight/Take 5: Future Patient Demand for Shoulder Arthroplasty by Younger Patients: National Projections.

P eople love predictions. Whether we are handicapping presidential elections or ballgames, it is always fun to compare our guesses to those of pundits and peers. This year’s meeting of the American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons was in Las Vegas, NV, USA; I have to imagine that at least a few readers of this journal left some money in the Vegas sand because of imperfect predictions at dice, cards, or the roulette wheel. If they did not, someone else sure did. Nevada’s nonrestricted gaming licensees reported a total ‘‘gaming win’’ of USD 950,692,054 last December [4]. That is nearly USD 1 billion changing hands because of predictions—in one month, in one city, for entertainment purposes alone. People need predictions. Budgets of countries, orthopaedic departments, and households depend on them. Businesses thrive or fail based on their ability to anticipate the future. Microsoft’s thenCEO Steve Ballmer opined in 2007 ‘‘There’s no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance’’ [3]. While the sales of this device appear to be leveling off, that level involved the sale of an average of 34,000 units per hour, every hour, for the last fiscal quarter. That is enough iPhones—more than 73 million in just 3 months [1]—to narcotize one in every 100 human beings on Earth with Internet cat videos. And Mr. Ballmer no longer works at Microsoft. Against that backdrop, who would not be interested in methodologically sound prognostications about the anticipated demand for a common surgical procedure? This month, Surena Namdari’s group at the Rothman Institute in Philadelphia, PA, USA provides those predictions. His team of clinicians and methodologists developed a robust model describing the future of shoulder arthroplasty. They found usage of this procedure in patients younger than 55 years of age is increasing by a brisk 8% per year, and they anticipate the demand in patients older than 55 years of age will increase by an extraordinary 755% between 2011 and 2030. Total shoulder arthroplasty volumes are rising much faster than those of hemiarthroplasty; the former will account for more than three quarters of the index arthroplasties in the next 15 years, should these predictions hold true. But if the CEO of the leading technology firm could be that far off about Note from the Editor-In-Chief: In ‘‘Editor’s Spotlight,’’ one of our editors provides brief commentary on a paper we believe is especially important and worthy of general interest. Following the explanation of our choice, we present ‘‘Take Five,’’ in which the editor goes behind the discovery with a oneon-one interview with an author of the article featured in ‘‘Editor’s Spotlight.’’ The authors certify that they, or any members of their immediate family, have no commercial associations (eg, consultancies, stock ownership, equity interest, patent/ licensing arrangements, etc) that might pose a conflict of interest in connection with the submitted article. All ICMJE Conflict of Interest Forms for authors and Clinical Orthopaedics and Related Research editors and board members are on file with the publication and can be viewed on request. The opinions expressed are those of the writers, and do not reflect the opinion or policy of CORR or the Association of Bone and Joint Surgeons. This comment refers to the article available at: DOI: 10.1007/s11999-015-4231-z. S. S. Leopold MD (&) Clinical Orthopaedics and Related Research, 1600 Spruce Street, Philadelphia, PA 19013, USA e-mail: sleopold@clinorthop.org Editor’s Spotlight/Take 5 Published online: 3 April 2015 The Association of Bone and Joint Surgeons1 2015