China in Ethiopia: diplomacy and economics of Sino-optimism

Abstract: This article examines the motive behind China's increased activities in Ethiopia in recent years and concludes that it lies in Ethiopia's perceived diplomatic usefulness. If China's relations with many African countries could be described as one of "infrastructure for natural resources," the Sino-Ethiopian relationship can be described "infrastructure for diplomatic support." After exploring the nature and scope of Ethiopia's relations with China and highlighting areas of divergence of interest, the article seeks to demonstrate how the convergence of interests between the two countries has ushered in a period of Sino-optimism among Ethiopia's elite and rising expectations among ordinary Ethiopians. Resume: Cet article examine les motivations derriere l'intensification recente de l'activite Chinoise en Ethiopie et conclut que l'Ethiopie est consideree par la Chine comme un allie diplomatique utile. Si les relations de la Chine avec bien des pays africains pouvaient etre decrites comme un "echange d'infrastructure contre des ressources naturelles," la relation sino-ethiopienne peut etre vue, elle, comme "un echange d'infrastructure contre un soutien diplomatique." Apres avoir explore la nature et l'etendue des relations entre l'Ethiopie et la Chine, et apres avoir mis l'accent sur les zones de divergence d'interets, cet article vise a montrer comment la convergence d'interets entre les deux pays a ouvert la voie d'un cote a une periode de "sino optimisme " pour l'elite ethiopienne, et de l'autre a des attentes grandissantes venant de la population generale. China-Africa Relations: A Framework for Analysis In general, three strands of thought inform the on-going debate about the long-term impact of China in Africa: Sino-optimism, Sino-pragmatism, and Sino-pessimism. From the perspective of Sino-optimism, China's re-entry into Africa is to be celebrated; Africa stands to gain much from closer Sino-African relations. From the perspective of Sino-pragmatism, China's greater involvement in Africa may be neocolonial in consequence, if not in intent, since the logic of capital is the same whether those in the driving seat are Europeans, Americans, or Chinese. But it is nevertheless too early, pragmatists say, to make a sweeping judgment on whether the disadvantages of a deeper Afro-Chinese economic engagement will outweigh the advantages for Africa, and China should be given the benefit of the doubt. According to the Sino-pessimist paradigm, Africa's engagement with China will perpetuate the structure of dependency and underdevelopment that is already in place and, moreover, inhibit or block Africa's efforts to overcome it. In the case of Ethiopia, all of the above perspectives are discernible in discussions about the potential impact of Sino-Ethiopian relations, but it is Sino-optimism, as this article will elaborate, that captures the mood of the moment. Sino-Ethiopian relations have passed through three stages, which will be discussed below: the imperial period, the Dergue period, and the Ethiopian Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) period. In order to highlight contemporary features, the bilateral relationship in the EPRDF period (1991-2011) will be broken down further into four phases. The Imperial Period (1923-74) and the Dergue Period (1974-91) Ethiopia's interest in Asia beyond the Middle East dates back only to the 1920s, but the country that captured Ethiopia's attention in (East) Asia in the Imperial period (1923-74) was Japan. For historical and ideological reasons, China was perceived as the "Other," and this image persisted even in the wake of Prime Minister Zhou Enlai's visit to Ethiopia in 1964, the establishment of formal diplomatic relations between the two countries in 1970, and Emperor Haile Selassie's visit to China in October 1971. 2 When the Ethiopian military officers (the Dergue) deposed the emperor and seized political power in 1974, Sino-Ethiopian relations were still in a stagnant state. …