The Stabilizing Window is Closing: How the History of Media Regulation Can Shape the Future of the Internet

For many, the changes in information communication technologies (ICTs) can feel nearly constant and overwhelming. However, when it comes to political communication that is simply not the case. A careful examination of historical changes in political communication reveals a recurring process that I label the political communication cycle (PCC), which incorporates the technological, political, and behavior forces that affect if, when, and how political organizations and actors innovate their communication activities. This cycle starts with new ICTs that occasionally become widely used throughout society. If they are widely disseminated, they become politically viable and political actors or organizations may start to test ways to use these new tools toward achieving longstanding political communication goals. As these trials become increasingly effective, other political organizations will be more willing to copy and imitate these practices, eventually leading to a new stabilized order built by newly established norms of political communication, and new institutions and regulations built to maintain this stability over time. This study uses the PCC in order to compare historical periods of media stabilization to our current era, showing how remarkably similar the process of regulating media has been throughout American history and what this means for those interested in the future of political communication online and its impact on democracy. Throughout American history the political communication cycle has repeatedly moved from relatively stable periods of political communication to shorter periods of major change and upheaval and eventually back to more stable new orders. Newspapers and printing shook the colonial and revolutionary periods but were eventually used in consistent ways as the technology of printing became more uniform and regulations and policies were consistently applied. Early radio moved from an era of tinkerers and hobbyists to the most powerful communication medium in a little over a decade, and was eventually stabilized through new policies written in large part by the industry leaders that were going to be subject to these regulations. Today, the internet is going through a very similar period, where industry leaders including content providers like Facebook, Google, Twitter, and Apple, along with service providers like Comcast, Time Warner, AT&T and Verizon are shaping the norms and regulations of what political communication online will look like. Along with other stakeholders, these industry leaders are trying to affect future decisions by the FCC, Congress, and the Courts and the result will form the stabilized order that will be in place for decades to come. In short, we are currently in a stabilizing window but this window is closing. Decisions that are made over the next five to ten years will direct how the current PCC is stabilized. Norms and regulations will likely stabilize issues including net neutrality, campaign donations, political advertising, free speech on social media, fact-checking and news validation, and mergers and acquisitions of large media firms, among others. Those who are most actively engaged will likely shape the ways that the internet and web-based political information is created, shared, disseminated, and monetized far into the future.