Trajectories of Alcohol Use During the Transition to Adulthood

People's alcohol use and abuse tend to increase, peak, and then decrease as they go through the transition to adulthood, a period that spans the late teenage years through the mid- to late twenties. However, more specific pathways, or trajectories, of alcohol use are embedded within the normative alcohol use pathway. Studying these trajectories of alcohol use can elucidate the origins and consequences of alcohol problems as well as guide prevention and treatment programs. Models of the average trend (i.e., normative trajectory approaches) are simpler than models that posit multiple trajectories and may replicate more consistently across samples and age spans. However, multiple-trajectory approaches allow for a more specific understanding of the origins, developmental course, and outcomes of alcohol use and abuse among adolescents and young adults. KEY WORDS: young adult; adolescent; alcohol abuse; AOD (alcohol and other drug) consumption; AOD use pattern; AOD use initiation; age differences; risk factors; human study; longitudinal study; cross-sectional study; latent growth curve modeling; causal path analysis; multivariate analysis; multilevel analysis; normative trajectory; multiple-trajectory; prevention of AOD associated consequences ********** This article considers the average, or normative, developmental course of alcohol use and abuse, as well as some common developmental pathways, or trajectories, embedded within the normative course. The article also reviews key research on the events and circumstances during adolescence that predict different paths of alcohol use, as well as outcomes during young adulthood that are associated with different trajectories. In the years after people graduate from high school, they undergo major transitions in every domain of their lives. Young people may embark on diverse life paths (Schulenberg and Maggs 2002; Shanahan 2000), and the age and order in which they reach developmental milestones tend to vary widely (Cohen et al. 2003). Flexibility and self-direction in day-to-day life increase for many, and their geographic mobility may be greater than at any other time of life (Shanahan 2000). In the past few decades, this transition period has lengthened considerably, and people tend to begin to settle into adult roles, such as work and marriage, later than their counterparts in past generations. These changes have led Arnett (2000) to argue that this period should be viewed as unique and important in its own right rather than as simply a staging ground for adulthood. On average, people start drinking during their adolescence, increase the amounts they drink into their early twenties, and decrease the amounts when they take on adult roles (Bachman et al. 2002; Johnston et al. 2004). Some personal and role changes (such as becoming a college student) coincide with these increases, and others (such as becoming a spouse, parent, or worker) coincide with the decreases (Schulenberg et al. 2003). Many young people establish lifelong patterns of alcohol use (and nonuse) during this period of emerging adulthood. Others take a different trajectory, engaging in a particular pattern of use only in their late teen or young adult years and not thereafter. Variations in the timing and intensity of changes in alcohol consumption can be predicted partly on the basis of demographic, psychological, social, and behavioral factors. Hidden within the normative pattern are subgroups of people whose drinking patterns take different developmental trajectories over time. By identifying common trajectories of alcohol use and abuse across adolescence and young adulthood, researchers can better understand the origins of alcohol use disorders, predict different outcomes, and plan prevention and intervention programs. At a clinical level, knowledge of the drinking patterns that define the different subgroups can expedite the early identification of alcohol problems, facilitate diagnosis, and inform treatment (Flory et al. …