An Outline of Approaches to Analyzing the Behavior of Causal Maps

Analysis of the behavior of casual maps is not as well developed as the analysis of their content and structure. In this chapter, we propose a set of approaches to examine the behavior of causal maps. Simulation approaches that invoke computer simulations, influence diagrams and fuzzy causal maps are eminently suitable to examine the intrinsic behavior of causal maps. Empirical approaches attempt to build a theory of cognition-behavior linkages from the ground up, by unearthing stable linkages between cognition and behavior. Both approaches could be combined in major programs of research. This chapter appears in the book Causal Mapping for Research in Information Technology by V. K. Narayanan and Deborah J. Armstrong. Copyright © 2005, Idea Group Inc. Copying or distributing in print or electronic forms without written permission of Idea Group Inc. is prohibited. 701 E. Chocolate Avenue, Suite 200, Hershey PA 17033-1240, USA Tel: 717/533-8845; Fax 717/533-8661; URL-http://www.idea-group.com IDEA GROUP PUBLISHING An Outline of Approaches to Analyzing the Behavior of Causal Maps 369 Copyright © 2005, Idea Group Inc. Copying or distributing in print or electronic forms without written permission of Idea Group Inc. is prohibited. Introduction In empirical works employing causal maps, researchers usually address the content, structure or behavior of causal maps (a point that was elaborated in Chapter I). Contentbased studies typically focus on the specific concepts in a causal map or the differences among concepts across maps. Structure refers to the pattern of relationships, or the differences among patterns in comparative studies. Indeed most of the studies reported in this book have chosen to focus on content or structure. By the term, “the behavior of causal maps” we mean the prediction or analysis of decisions or actions that one can make, based on a given causal map. Some examples will illustrate the meaning of this definition. For example, if a firm constructed a competitor’s causal map with industry conditions as a set of causes and strategic actions as consequences, the firm may be interested in using the causal map to predict the behavior of its competitor, i.e., predicting its competitor’s strategic actions. This is of great interest in competitive intelligence systems. In another sense, behavior could refer to the analysis of the consequences of specific policy actions initiated by a firm. As an example, in Information System (IS) design work, if a causal map of the implementation process is constructed (that embraces relevant stakeholders), then designers can assess the consequences of various managerial alternatives in order to identify satisfactory actions that can be initiated by the management during implementation. The analysis of the behavior of causal maps remains the Holy Grail in research using causal mapping. Although the analysis of behavior is much more prevalent in intervention contexts, empirical research on the behavior of causal maps is almost non-existent. This has been partly due to the absence of easily accessible methodological tools and theoretical lenses. Thus, the primary goal of this chapter is to invite future research in causal map theory focusing on behavior, not merely the content and structure of the maps. Specifically, the chapter aims to: 1) review and summarize promising avenues to connect causal maps and behavior; and 2) enumerate some specific tools to deploy in each avenue. The scheme of this chapter is as follows: In the next section, we will provide an overview of the fruitful approaches to examining the behavior of causal maps. Following that, we will deal with three simulation approaches. Next we will sketch the empirical approach that we are beginning to witness in some disciplines. We will conclude with a comparative analysis of these approaches. At the outset, we want to make one observation to place our discussion in perspective: Our approach is to identify fruitful, but not yet tested techniques for the analysis of the behavior of causal maps. Only as these techniques are put to use, will we know their relative merits or applicability. Thus, this chapter represents a preliminary guide to the uncharted territories that remain in the methodology of causal mapping. 8 more pages are available in the full version of this document, which may be purchased using the "Add to Cart" button on the publisher's webpage: www.igi-global.com/chapter/outline-approaches-analyzingbehavior-causal/6526