CROSSING THE BORDER AND MIGRATION DURATION

1.INTRODUCTION Immigration and border enforcement is a contentious political issue in the United States. The existence .of over 10 million illegal immigrants in the United States, with 62% being from Mexico, has led to stricter border enforcement over the years (Hoefer, Rytina, and Baker 2010). An example of this was the law passed by the state of Arizona requiring police to detain anyone who they "reasonably suspect" may be an illegal immigrant (Archibold 2010). While the U.S. Supreme Court eventually ruled against many facets of this law, the initial passing of the law shows how important immigration is as an issue, especially for states in the West where the majority of illegal Mexican immigrants are located. Immigration was a major campaign issue for Obama and Romney in the 2012 presidential election. Since the passage of the Immigration Reform and Control Act (IRCA) of 1986, the United States has increased the number of border watch hours by an average of 10% per year (Mexican Migration Project 2012). The coal of increased enforcement has been to reduce the number of illegal immigrants entering, the United States from Mexico. This increased border enforcement has been prompted by policy makers' (and their constitutents') concerns about the impact of illegal immigration on the employment of native workers, crime, and public spending (Borjas 1999; Dodson 2001; Enchautegui 1997). Despite the intent of the legislation, the post-IRCA time period has seen a dramatic increase in the number of illegal immigrants crossing the border (Hanson and Spilimbergo 1999). The number of apprehensions from 1980 to 2008 is shown in Figure 1. The majority of these are from the Mexico-U.S. border. While these numbers may appear to be rather large, many of these are repeaters. This is because of the -revolving door" nature of border enforcement (Durand 1994). Immigrants who are caught trying to illegally enter the United States are apprehended and dropped back in Mexico where they are free to attempt the crossing again. Studies have found the probability of apprehension to be consistently around 1 in 3 (Massey and Espinosa 1997: Massey and Singer 1995). While would-be immigrants are free to attempt another crossing. each crossing does pose significant dangers from both criminals and the elements. Eschbach et al. (1999) and Cornelius (2001) both discuss the dangers faced by people attempting to cross the border. Increased border enforcement and .apprehensions may be good, however, for one group of people: coyotes. Coyotes are smugglers who are paid to illegally bring people over the border from Mexico to the United States. (1) [FIGURE 1 OMITTED] The agricultural migration to the United States tends to be short term, with migrants working in the United States and then returning home to Mexico in the off-season. Even nonagricultural workers have engaged in repeated attempts, apprehensions, and short-term stays in the United States. If coyote use makes entering the United States too expensive or difficult then immigrants may choose to stay in the United States during the off-season. Given the large stock of Mexican immigrants already in the United States, moves to strengthen the border even further may not actually reduce the stock of illegal immigrants in the United States and could actually increase it. There are strong policy reasons to reduce the usage of coyotes, other than migration duration. The coyote industry has changed significantly over the years. Some of these changes have involved using new technology such as cell phones to remotely guide migrants across the border (Lacey 2011). However, other changes in the coyote business have been troubling. Mexican cartels such as the Gulf and Zetas have large-scale operations along the U.S. border. Coyotes now have to pay "tolls" to these criminal organizations in order to smuggle people through their territory (Beaubian 2011). These gangs also kidnap illegal immigrants who. …