Truckload transportation requirements: in anticipation of Y2K with epilogue

INTRODUCTION It is highly unlikely that many of us escaped the what-if scenarios of the Y2K phenomenon. These scenarios ranged from a non-event scenario where nothing happens and life goes on without a hitch, to the more media-hyped doomsday scenario where civilization as we know it disintegrates as humans are incapable or unprepared to exist without computer assistance. Olgeirson (1999) describes this latter scenario in a hypothetical situation where, in each case, the worst does happen, panic sets in, and society self-destructs. As businesses and governments had spent $300 to $600 billion dollars world wide (Hamilton and Wong, 1999) in preparation for this event, reality was thought to fall between these two scenarios. The transportation industry was no exception in terms of preparation for tracking carriers, shipments, and invoices. In fact, Hamilton and Wong (1999) point out that as the transportation industry is the central force in the supply chain, how this industry reacted to and prepared for the Y2K phenomenon would have far reaching effects on everyone from manufacturers to end-users. They further contend that not all reports on transportation preparedness were encouraging. In fact, by some estimates, the transportation industry ranked near the bottom of industries addressing the Y2K problem and it was estimated that approximately 50% of these companies would experience mission-critical failures. Brandt (1999) reported that a government survey conducted by the Special Committee on the Year 2000 Technology Problem revealed only 62% of the responding transportation companies had completed Y2K preparations. Medium sized fleets were described as facing the largest challenge in preparing for the year 2000 since they typically have fewer people on their technology staffs than do the larger companies. Further, 50% reported that they anticipated being involved in some type of litigation resulting from the Y2K phenomenon. The litigation issue was compounded by contractual agreements involving just-in-time deliveries. Leffort (1999) repoz'ted that the transportation industry in general was in a very difficult position, as they rely on every member of the supply chain. However, it was thought that the Y2K phenomenon might have provided a profit making business opportunity for the transportation industry. For example, at least one large trucking firm postponed its annual company Christmas party in anticipation of increased demands on its ability to transport the vast volume of goods being purchased by numerous businesses prior to any possible disruption in the supply chain. This expectation of increased usage was not an isolated view. Watson (1999) noted that shippers were protecting themselves from any potential Y2K associated problems by stocking increased inventories. As a result of this increase in safety stock, shippers pre-booked shipments to assure adequate equipment availability. Watson further noted that this increase in bookings might have increased margins by 2% to 4% in the motor carrier industry. A variety of other potentially positive outcomes also existed. Hamilton and Wong (1999) suggested that by being forced to deal with the Y2K problem companies improved a variety of processes and products. These improvements included areas such as better communication, standardized bar coding and electronic manifests, and the simplification of multi-mode shipment tracking. While it is clear that there was a range of both positive and negative aspects to the Y2K phenomenon, the lack of specific information on how firms prepared was disconcerting. Thibodeau (1998) reported that many surveys relating to year 2000 readiness were never returned, perhaps as a result of either being unprepared or concerned about their responses being used in future litigation. In the transportation industry, adequate Y2K preparation was a critical determinant of a firm's ability to satisfy their customers, maintain sales and market share, increase profits, and ultimately ensure long-term survival. …