cssi/SciSciGPT-SciSciNet huggingface dataset:
Leadership Perspectives on Implementing Health Information Exchange: Qualitative Study in a Tertiary Veterans Affairs Medical Center.

Background: The US Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) seeks to achieve interoperability with other organizations, including non-VA community and regional health information exchanges (HIEs). Objective: This study aims to understand the perspectives of leaders involved in implementing information exchange between VA and non-VA providers via a community HIE. Methods: We interviewed operational, clinical, and information technology leaders at one VA facility and its community HIE partner. Respondents discussed their experiences with VA-HIE, including barriers and facilitators to implementation, and the associated impact on health care providers. Transcribed interviews were coded and analyzed using immersion-crystallization methods. Results: VA and community HIE leaders found training to be a key factor when implementing VA-HIE and worked cooperatively to provide several styles and locations of training. During recruitment, a high-touch approach was successfully used to enroll patients and overcome their resistance to opting in. Discussion with leaders revealed the high levels of complexity navigated by VA providers and staff to send and retrieve information. Part of the complexity stemmed from the interconnected web of information systems and human teams necessary to implement VA-HIE information sharing. These interrelationships must be effectively managed to guide organizational decision making. Conclusions: Organizational leaders perceived information sharing to be of essential value in delivering high-quality, coordinated health care. The VA continues to increase access to outside care through the VA Maintaining Internal Systems and Strengthening Integrated Outside Networks (MISSION) Act. Along with this increase in non-VA medical care, there is a need for greater information sharing between VA and non-VA health care organizations. Insights by leaders into barriers and facilitators to VA-HIE can be applied by other national and regional networks that seek to achieve interoperability across health care delivery systems.
Limiting absorption principle on Riemannian scattering (asymptotically conic) spaces, a Lagrangian approach

We use a Lagrangian perspective to show the limiting absorption principle on Riemannian scattering, i.e. asymptotically conic, spaces, and their generalizations. More precisely we show that, for no...
Adaptive Step Size Incremental Conductance Based Maximum Power Point Tracking (MPPT)

Extracting maximum power available from photovoltaic arrays requires the system operating at the maximum power point (MPP). Therefore, finding the MPP is necessary for efficient operation of PV arrays. The MPP changes with multiple environmental factors, mainly temperature and irradiance. Traditionally, the incremental conductance technique with fixed step size was used to find the MPP, which suffers from a trade-off between speed of convergence and accuracy. In this work, we propose an incremental conductance maximum power point tracking (MPPT) algorithm with a variable step size, which adaptively changes the step size after each iteration based on how far away the current operating point is from a new MPP. This mitigates the aforementioned trade-off drastically by achieving faster convergence speed without the loss of accuracy. A series of simulations involving variations in temperature and irradiance were performed using MATLAB, and the speed of convergence and accuracy were compared with the traditional IC technique.
Credible Interdiction for Transmission Systems

This article presents novel formulations and algorithms for $N$ − $k$ interdiction problems in transmission networks. In particular, it formulates spatial and topological resource constraints on attackers for $N$ − $k$ interdiction problems and illustrates the formulation with two new classes of $N$ − $k$ attacks: spatial $N$ − $k$ attacks where the attack is constrained by geographic distance of a bus chosen by an attacker; and topological $N$ − $k$ attacks where the attack is constrained to connected components. These two specific types of $N$ − $k$ attacks compute interdiction plans designed to better model localized attacks, such as those induced by natural disasters or physical attacks. We then formulate these two resource-constrained interdiction problems as bilevel, max–min optimization problems, and present a novel constraint-generation algorithm to solve these formulations. Detailed case studies analyzing the behavior of spatially and topologically resource-constrained problems and comparing them to the traditional $N$ − $k$ interdiction problem are also presented.
INDEPENDENT CRIME LABORATORIES: THE PROBLEM OF MOTIVATIONAL AND COGNITIVE BIAS

One of the most controversial recommendations in the National Academy of Sciences report on forensic science — Strengthening Forensic Science in the United States: The Path Forward — concerns the removal of crime laboratories from the administrative control of law enforcement agencies. For decades scholars have commented on the “inbred bias of crime laboratories affiliated with law enforcement agencies.” Some commentators have proposed independent laboratories as the remedy for this problem, and in 2002, the Illinois Governor’s Commission on Capital Punishment proposed the establishment of an independent state crime laboratory. This essay documents the problems that triggered the NAS Report’s recommendation. It also examines the counter arguments as well as alternative approaches, including additional measures that should protect forensic analyses from improper influence.
Patents, venture capital, and software start-ups

Abstract This paper analyzes the relation between the patenting behavior of startup firms and the progress of those firms through the venture capital cycle. Linking data relating to venture capital financing of software startup firms with data concerning the patents obtained by those firms, we find significant and robust positive correlations between patenting and several variables measuring the firm's performance (including number of rounds, total investment, exit status, receipt of late stage financing, and longevity). The data also show that (1) only about one in four venture-backed software firms acquired even one patent during the period of the study; (2) patenting practices very considerably among the sub-sectors of the software industry; and (3) the relationship between patent metrics and firm performance depends less on the size of the patent portfolio than on the firm's receipt of at least one patent.
Tax Appeal: A Proposal to Make the United States Tax Court More Judicial

Accountability is a critically important protection for any justice system; its absence provides an opportunity for shortcuts that may undermine procedural fairness or even change case outcomes. Yet, the United States Tax Court, which is an Article I court, is not subject to Administrative Office of U.S. Courts or the U.S. Judicial Conference - institutions that serve and oversee the federal judiciary. In addition, because the Tax Court is not an administrative agency, it is not covered by the Administrative Procedure Act or the Freedom of Information Act. The principal source of oversight of Tax Court actions is appellate review. Although the appeals process allows for correction of errors in individual cases, it is a poor vehicle for systemic oversight. Notably, it contains no mechanism for oversight of actions taken outside of the official record of a case. Moreover, appellate review is not available in about half of the cases on the Tax Court's docket. In those cases, the Tax Court's decision on what procedures to adopt and how to apply them is final. Given this lack of accountability, it may not be surprising that the Tax Court has adopted opaque processes in a number of contexts in which transparency is the norm among courts. It has kept various case files, factfinding reports, and even opinions confidential. It also releases only limited aggregate statistics, and changed a procedural rule to eliminate transparency in certain large cases. Moreover, until it was criticized by the United States Supreme Court in Ballard v. Commissioner, 544 U.S. 40 (2005), the Tax Court adopted and amended its Rules of Practice and Procedure without input from the public. An investigation after Ballard was decided revealed several cases with substantial amounts at stake in which the Tax Court's official opinion not only differed significantly from the trial judge's findings, it held for the other party. The Tax Court should be subject to the same systemic oversight that our system demands of Article III courts and the Court of Federal Claims. Making the Tax Court subject to the Administrative Office of U.S. Courts and, with respect to its rulemaking, to the U.S. Judicial Conference, would increase the Tax Court's accountability significantly. It would also increase trust in the court. In addition, adoption of this proposal would occasion minimal increased cost to the federal government because it would utilize established bodies that already provide services and oversight to other courts.
Time Will Tell: The Distant Appeal of Promotion and Imminent Appeal of Prevention

What types of products are preferred when the purchase is immediate versus off in the distant future? Three experiments address this question by examining the influence of temporal perspective on evaluations of regulatory-framed products. The results reveal that when a purchase is about to be made, consumers prefer prevention- (vs. promotion-) framed products—an effect that is driven by the pain anticipated from potentially failing one's looming purchasing goal. When a purchase is temporally distant, however, promotion- (vs. prevention-) framed products become more appealing—an effect that is driven by the anticipated pleasure from achieving one's distant purchasing goal. Implications for the psychology of self-regulation, anticipated affect, and willpower are discussed.
The Genealogy Detectives: A Constitutional Analysis of 'Familial Searching'

"Familial searching" in law enforcement DNA databases has been pilloried as a step "towards eugenics and corruption of blood" and "lifelong genetic surveillance" that is "inconsistent with a basic pillar of American political thought." Courts have yet to address the issue fully, but several commentators contend the practice is unwise, unjust, or unconstitutional. This Article examines the more significant constitutional claims. It concludes that although kinship matching should not be implemented simply because it is technologically seductive, neither should it be removed from the realm of permissible law enforcement information gathering on constitutional grounds. In reaching this conclusion, the Article describes the logic of kinship analysis; clarifies the nature of partial-match searching; shows how an advanced system of DNA databases could yield additional, accurate leads in the investigation of both routine and high profile crimes; and explains why this system, if properly implemented, is compatible with constitutionally protected interests of both convicted offenders and their close relatives.
International and Domestic Law Dimensions of Climate Justice for Arctic Indigenous Peoples

The Arctic region is in crisis from the effects of climate change. The impacts of climate change pose a particular threat to Arctic indigenous communities. Because of the disproportionate impacts of climate change, these indigenous communities are environmental justice communities. Part I of this article discusses how indigenous nations are environmental justice communities and discusses the unique factors that may apply to environmental justice claims arising in Indian country. The article then presents two case studies to explore how, if at all, these concepts have been previously applied to environmental justice claims brought by various Arctic indigenous communities. Part II addresses the Inuit Circumpolar Conference’s petition to the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights. Part III considers the Native Village of Kivalina’s lawsuit against numerous private emitters of greenhouse gases. These case studies underscore the failure of international and domestic forums’ consideration of the special situation of Arctic indigenous peoples as environmental justice communities.
The Modern Corporation and the Idea of Freedom

While the idea of freedom lies at the heart of our economic system, academic research has neglected to connect theories of the firm to freedom theory. To fill this void, the authors delineate two archetypes of freedom — quantitative and qualitative — and outline the consequences of the respective notions for organisational strategy, corporate governance, leadership and culture. Supporting the quest for reform in management theory, the authors argue for an enlarged perspective of the role of the firm within free societies.
Submajority Rules: Forcing Accountability upon Majorities*

Legal and political theory have paid a great deal of attention to supermajority rules, which require a fraction of votes greater than 1/2+1 to reach a decision, and thus empower a minority to block change. In this paper I consider the opposite deviation from simple majority rule: submajority rules, under which a voting minority is granted the affirmative power to change the status quo. Among the examples I will consider are: - The Journal Clause, which allows 1/5 of the legislators present in either House to force a roll-call vote; - The discharge rule in the House, which (at various points, although not today) has permitted a specified minority of legislators to force bills out of committee for consideration on the floor; - Senate Rule XXII, under which a cloture petition is valid when signed by sixteen Senators; - The Seven Member Rule, under which a minority of designated committees in the House and Senate can require the executive branch to divulge information; - House Rule XI, which entitles committee minorities to call witnesses at hearings; - The famous Rule of Four that allows four Justices to grant a writ of certiorari and thereby put a case on the Supreme Court's agenda; - Rules governing direct democracy that permit a defined minority of a state's electorate to place a question on the ballot, or to force a recall election; - Rules governing international organizations, which frequently allow a defined minority to call an emergency session or to force a roll-call vote. Submajority rules are rarely discussed, either because they are assumed not to exist, or because they are assumed to lack any institutional virtues, or because submajoritarian decisions are assumed to be chronically unstable in light of the risk that subsequent majorities will reverse the submajority's decision. I will dispute all three assumptions. Submajority rules have important procedural and deliberative virtues: in a range of situations they enable a minority to force public accountability upon a majority, to the benefit of the institution as a whole. The reversibility problem can be, and is, dampened by other institutional rules and norms that protect submajoritarian decisions, or by the simpler expedient of adopting submajority rules only for decisions that are inherently irreversible or costly to reverse, such as decisions that release information into the public domain.
Dynamic Governance Innovation

This article frames environmentally sound innovation in the context of transnational network theory with the goal of setting forth a preliminary framework for international legal policy coherence. I consider how network dynamics can facilitate broad diffusion of environmentally sound technologies, concluding that what appears to be fragmented trade, environment, and human rights regimes are indeed sustainable development building blocks with which to achieve dynamic governance. Collaborative environmentally sound innovation networking may be able to shepherd whole renewable energy sectors across the innovation valley of death and help turn a global responsibility to ramp up green technology into a global initiative to do so.
Valuing Barrels of Oil Equivalent

By convention, the petroleum industry relies on thermal equivalence to summarize the results of upstream oil and gas operations - measuring outputs in terms of barrels of "oil equivalent." This despite the fact that the two commodities trade at nothing like thermal parity. Drawing on a well-known exponential production model of petroleum reserves, we demonstrate the potential for thermal equivalence to substantially distort common measures of exploration and development success. Drawing on a recent survey of actual upstream results, and relative to a proposed measure based on economic equivalence, we show that the extent of bias in estimates of value, cost, and profitability is indeed large.
Energy consumption and environmental pollution: A stochastic model

This paper considers an energy-pollution economic problem which uses a stochastic queue framework. This approach is shown to establish a link between a firm's energy consuming economic activity and its effects on the pollution that it generates as a function of its activity. An economic model is then used to draw some inferences regarding the effects of selected economic parameters on the propensity to pollute and prevent pollution. In particular, a number of theories pertaining to the effects of pollution and its regulation on the output and competitiveness of firms is elaborated. For example, the Porter Hypothesis presuming that a stringent environmental policy improves a firm’s competitiveness is analyzed in terms of our model. For demonstration purposes, a simple example is used.
The Law of Many Faces: Antebellum Contract Law Background of Reconstruction-Era Freedom of Contract

This article, published in late-2008, has two goals. First, it seeks to connect doctrinal histories of contract law with the political and social histories of contract ideology. In doing so I hope to show how the tales about the development of contract doctrine can be told more richly by considering the political and ideological developments of the period. Second, and more significantly, this article highlights the ambiguous strands of contract law that were part of the culture of contract surrounding Reconstruction, and shows how contract law was far more contextualized than historians of either free labor ideology or contract doctrine typically acknowledge. This failure to explore the rich context and ambiguity of mid-nineteenth century contract law produces, on the one hand, an inappropriately narrow view of Reconstruction-era conceptions of the potential role of contract, and, on the other hand, a general inattentiveness to the potential uses of contract law and ideas to challenge the otherwise dominant ideologies. The article proceeds through four topics: antebellum equity jurisprudence, antebellum labor law, inn and carrier law, and antebellum feminist uses and critiques of contract. By connecting contract-as-doctrine to contract-as-political-ideology through these four areas, I hope to show that during Reconstruction there was more possibility for both than often seems apparent to those looking back after the Lochner era.
Neil Gross’s Plantation Model of the Academic Labor Market

In the piece I argue that Gross's theory about why academics tend to be social democrats is riddled with statistical errors and historical inaccuracy. The piece has been published in Academic Questions, 29:1.
The Political Economy of Extraterritoriality

Near the end of the 2009 Term the Supreme Court decided Morrison v. Australia National Bank, Ltd., the strongest anti-extraterritoriality opinion it has produced in modern times. Not only is Congress presumed generally to prefer only territorial regulation, but lower courts that had carved out exceptions from this principle over a long period of time must now revisit their positions. Again this year in Kiobel v. Royal Dutch Shell Co. the Court relied on an aggressive use of the presumption against extraterritoriality to cut back on an important field of private litigation. The Court appears to have embraced two related stances: The imposition of barriers to extraterritorial regulation generally advances welfare, and the lower courts cannot be trusted to determine those instances where an exception to this rule might be justified. Implicit in the Court's position are intuitions about the political economy of both legislation and litigation. I want to use the occasion of the Morrison and Kiobel decisions to consider the political economy of extraterritorial regulation by the United States. International lawyers for the most part have analyzed state decisions to exercise prescriptive jurisdiction over extraterritorial transactions in terms of a welfare calculus that determines the likely costs and benefits to the state as a whole. Fewer studies have considered the political economy of the decision whether to regulate foreign transactions. No work of which I am aware has considered the political economy of deciding the extraterritorial question through litigation. This paper seeks to fill these gaps by sketching out what political economy suggests both about extraterritoriality and the role of courts as arbiters of extraterritoriality.
How Do Investors Judge the Risk of Financial Items

This paper proposes and tests a risk model that explains how investors perceive financial risks. The model combines conventional decision‐theory variables—probabilities and outcomes—with behavioral variables from psychology research by Slovic (1987), such as the extent to which a risky item is new, causes worry, and is controllable. To test our model, we conduct two studies in which M.B.A. students judge the risk of a broad range of financial items. Our results indicate that both the decisiontheory variables and Slovic's (1987) behavioral variables are important in explaining investors' risk judgments. Further, we demonstrate that information about the amount of potential loss outcome contained within mandated risk disclosures not only directly influences risk judgments, but also indirectly affects such judgments via its effect on some of Slovic's (1987) behavioral variables. By identifying this unintended consequence of current risk disclosures, these results have the potential to influence the way accou...
Average patent pendency and examination errors: a queuing theoretic analysis

Researchers have raised two concerns about the current patent approval process by the United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO). First, it takes too long to process applications. Second, examiners make too many errors in the approval process. The first concern suggests that examiners ought to be less stringent in their decision making and hence take less time in processing applications. The second concern suggests exactly the opposite. Given this state of affairs, we analyse the following question: Does a more stringent examination of applications always lengthen the pendency period? Our theoretical analysis shows that there is no definite answer to this question. Hence, we use numerical methods and our numerical analysis leads to two conclusions. For many values of the model parameters that describe the stringency of examinations, a more stringent examination process does lengthen the pendency period. In contrast, for most values of the model parameter that describes the volume of patent applications handled by the PTO under study, a more stringent examination process does not lengthen the pendency period.
The Line‐Item Veto in Government Budgeting

Beginning in January 1997, the president will have the power to veto line-items in appropriations bills This article examines four paragraphs about the line-item veto from Jesse Burkhead's Government Budgeting. Eight themes from Burkhead's writing are identified and compared to practice by the states.
Who Makes Acquisitions? CEO Overconfidence and the Market's Reaction

We analyze the impact of CEO overconfidence on mergers and acquisitions. Overconfident CEOs over-estimate their ability to generate returns, both in their current firm and in potential takeover targets. Thus, on the margin, they undertake mergers that destroy value. Overconfidence also implies that managers view their company as undervalued by outside investors. Therefore, the impact of overconfidence is strongest when CEOs can finance mergers internally. We test these predictions using the merger decisions of a sample of Forbes 500 companies between 1980 and 1994. We classify CEOs as overconfident when, in spite of their under-diversification, they hold company options until expiration. We find ·
Note, Maintaining Educational Adequacy in Times of Recession: Judicial Review of State Education Budget Cuts

This Note examines judicial review and oversight of state educational adequacy remedies in light of education budget cuts proposed during the recent recession. Educational adequacy litigation has been relatively successful in establishing children’s affirmative right to education under state constitutions, but due to separation of powers concerns, most state courts have been quite deferential to legislatures in reviewing remedies for constitutional violations. This leaves many schools underfunded and under-resourced in spite of successful adequacy litigation — a problem that is aggravated during times of recession, when many states face pressure to cut education budgets. This Note examines these issues using functional separation of powers theory, comparative analysis of state and federal government functioning, and pragmatic considerations related to remedial compliance. It argues that state courts should apply heightened judicial review to ensure remedial compliance and particularly to review state education budget cuts that may disrupt educational adequacy remedies. In this way, state courts can be more vigilant in maintaining educational adequacy.
AGGREGATE HEALTH EXPENDITURES, NATIONAL INCOME, AND INSTITUTIONS FOR PRIVATE PROPERTY

Being careful about the potential for endogeneity bias, I find robust evidence that “institutions for private property” share a more fundamental relationship with health expenditures than does national income. This research should interest a wide audience. First, health scholars may be interested in its relatively careful estimate of income's relationship to health spending. Second, institutions and commitment scholars should be interested in its evidence of institutions' primacy in a heretofore overlooked, but theoretically and substantively attractive, application. Finally, policy entrepreneurs may find important the implication that reforming governance structures can be more productive than is directly funding health services. A useful model of the macroaspect or even microaspects of an economy must build the institutional constraints into the model. (North, 1990, p. 112)
Determinants of CEO Pay: A Comparison of ExecuComp and Non-ExecuComp Firms

ABSTRACT: We document that firms included in the ExecuComp database tend to be larger, more complex, followed by more analysts, have greater stock liquidity levels, and have higher total, but less concentrated, institutional ownership than other firms. Based on these differences, we test and find support for three predictions. First, ExecuComp firms rely more heavily on earnings and stock returns in determining CEO cash compensation. Second, the weight on earnings is more sensitive to differences in the extent of growth opportunities for ExecuComp firms. Third, the positive relation between institutional ownership concentration and the value of stock option grants is stronger for ExecuComp firms. Overall, our results suggest that ExecuComp and non-ExecuComp firms operate in different contracting environments that lead to differences in the design of their executive compensation contracts. As a result, care should be taken in extending results based on ExecuComp samples to non-ExecuComp firms.
Social Class and Public Administration: A Closed Question Opens

The American Society for Public Administration's (ASPA) Code of Ethics commits it to representativeness, fairness, equality, and affirmative action. Notwithstanding these goals, mainstream public administration teachings, texts, and journals mostly ignore the role of social class in understanding the how and why of bureaucratic operations. This is especially puzzling given all the studies showing that socioeconomic status affects most life outcomes and, in turn, government's response to the resulting discrepancies. This study reviews the field's neglect of class matters and shows how this oversight limits the range of possible policy options available for consideration. The discussion closes by (a) suggesting ways to address this omission and (b) explaining how the recommended reforms are consistent with ASPA's Code of Ethics.
Foreign Citizens in Transnational Class Actions

This Article addresses an increasingly important question: When, if ever, should foreign citizens be included as members of an American class action? The existing consensus holds that courts should exclude from class membership those foreign citizens whose country does not recognize an American class judgment. Our analysis begins by establishing that this consensus is flawed. Rather, to minimize the costs associated with relitigation in a foreign forum, we must distinguish between foreign claimants who are likely to commence a subsequent foreign proceeding from those who are unlikely to do so; distinguishing between those who come from recognizing and nonrecognizing countries creates needless inefficiency. Using standard tools of economic analysis, we examine the benefits and costs of the consensus rule and compare them to the costs and benefits of other possible rules. In this comparison, the consensus rule tends to perform poorly. As a matter of theory, the most efficient rule for deciding which foreign citizens to include and exclude is evident, but real-world informational constraints frustrate the application of this rule in practice. Because no rule regarding the inclusion and exclusion of foreign citizens is the most efficient in all situations, we propose that courts use rebuttable presumptions: include foreign citizens with claims that are not individually viable and exclude foreign citizens with claims that are viable.
The new Commonwealth model of constitutionalism

There has been a tremendous growth in constitutionalism around the world in the last sixty years. Mostly, it has come in two concentrated bursts: in western Europe and Japan following World War II, and in central Europe and Africa following the collapse of communism in 1989. Despite fascinating and important differences in the forms that this growth has taken in various countries, the overarching story is one in which the essentials of the American model of constitutionalism have been adopted. These essentials posit a necessary and fundamental incompatibility between legislative supremacy and the effective legal protection of individual rights, so that opting for the latter requires "constitutionalizing" them in the following specific sense: giving such rights the status of supreme law; entrenching them against ordinary legislative repeal or amendment; and enforcing them through the power of judicial review, exercise of which is unreviewable by ordinary legislative means. There has, however, been a set of recent developments in the three Commonwealth countries of Canada, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom that present an intriguing alternative to this dominant model of constitutionalism. Between 1982 and 1998, each of these three countries adopted a bill of rights in a form that self-consciously and deliberately rejected the central axiom of the American model by seeking to reconcile and accommodate judicial protection of fundamental rights with (what they see as) the legitimate core claims of parliamentary sovereignty. Although they grant significant new power to the courts to protect fundamental rights, each in a different way empowers the legislature to have the final word on what the law of the land is. This article identifies, analyzes and evaluates this new Commonwealth model of constitutionalism. In addition to presenting novel institutional possibilities within the framework of constitutionalist democracy, the new model suggests solutions to a number of practical and theoretical problems that have long been thought to bedevil the American model. By attempting to create genuine dialogue and joint responsibility between courts and legislatures with respect to rights, the new model may both help to reinject matters of principle back into legislative and popular debates, and offer a radically direct solution to the countermajoritarian difficulty associated with judicial review.
NONLINEAR MODELLING OF PERIODIC THRESHOLD AUTOREGRESSIONS USING TSMARS

We present new methods for modelling nonlinear threshold-type autoregres- sive behaviour in periodically correlated time series. The methods are illustrated using a series of average monthly flows of the Fraser River in British Columbia. Commonly used nonlinearity tests of the river flow data in each month indicate nonlinear behaviour in certain months. The periodic nonlinear correlation structure is modelled nonparametri- cally using TSMARS, a time series version of Friedman's extended multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) algorithm, which allows for categorical predictor variables. We discuss two methods of using the computational algorithm in TSMARS for modelling and fitting periodically correlated data. The first method applies the algorithm to data from each period separately. The second method models data from all periods simultaneously by incorporating an additional predictor variable to distinguish different behaviour in different periods, and allows for coalescing of data from periods with similar behaviour. The models obtained using TSMARS provide better short-term forecasts for the Fraser River data than a corresponding linear periodic AR model.
Personal redistribution and the regional allocation of public investment

Abstract How should an equity-motivated policy-maker allocate public capital (infrastructure) across regions. Should (s)he aim at reducing interregional differences in per capita output, or at maximizing total output? Such a normative question is examined in a model where the policy-maker is exclusively concerned about personal inequality and has access to two policy instruments: (i) a personal tax-transfer system (taxation is distortionary), and (ii) the regional allocation of public investment. I show that the case for public investment as a significant instrument for interpersonal redistribution is rather weak. In the most favorable case, when the tax code is constrained to be uniform across regions, it is optimal to distort the allocation of public investment in favor of the poor regions, but only to a limited extent. If the tax code can vary across regions, then the optimal policy may involve an allocation of public investment distorted in favor of the rich regions.
Inflationary constraints on type IIA string theory

We prove that inflation is forbidden in the most well understood class of semi-realistic type IIA string compactifications: Calabi-Yau compactifications with only standard NS-NS 3-form flux, R-R fluxes, D6-branes and O6-planes at large volume and small string coupling. With these ingredients, the first slow-roll parameter satisfies {epsilon} {ge} 27/13 whenever V > 0, ruling out both inflation (including brane/anti-brane inflation) and de Sitter vacua in this limit. Our proof is based on the dependence of the 4-dimensional potential on the volume and dilaton moduli in the presence of fluxes and branes. We also describe broader classes of IIA models which may include cosmologies with inflation and/or de Sitter vacua. The inclusion of extra ingredients, such as NS 5-branes and geometric or non-geometric NS-NS fluxes, evades the assumptions used in deriving the no-go theorem. We focus on NS 5-branes and outline how such ingredients may prove fruitful for cosmology, but we do not provide an explicit model. We contrast the results of our IIA analysis with the rather different situation in IIB.
Are firms on the right page with Chapter 11? An analysis of firm choices that contribute to post-bankruptcy survival

Historically, corporate bankruptcy reorganization has generated varying results with respect to subsequent firm performance. Some firms reorganize effectively and emerge as more efficient and productive enterprises. However, other inefficient companies strive to survive by utilizing the rehabilitative process of Chapter 11; though liquidation might be a more suitable course of action. This study investigates which characteristics of firm performance and Chapter 11 bankruptcy are linked to successful emergence upon reorganization. We find that the strongest contributor to post-bankruptcy survival is having new management in place. This suggests that Chapter 11 can be utilized as an effective rehabilitative tool in the ‘right hands’.
Foreign Direct Investment and the Domestic Capital Stock

This paper evaluates evidence of the impact of outbound foreign direct investment (FDI) on domestic investment rates. OECD countries with high rates of outbound FDI in the 1980s and 1990s exhibited lower domestic investment than other countries, which suggests that FDI and domestic investment are substitutes. U.S. time series data tell a very different story, however: years in which American multinational firms have greater foreign capital expenditures coincide with greater domestic capital spending by the same firms. One dollar of additional foreign capital spending is associated with 3.5 dollars of additional domestic capital spending in the time series, implying that foreign and domestic capital are complements in production by multinational firms. This effect is consistent with cross sectional evidence that firms whose foreign operations expand simultaneously expand their domestic operations, and suggests that interpretation of the OECD cross sectional evidence may be confounded by omitted variables.
Risk Regulation Lessons from Mad Cows

The mad cow disease crisis in the United Kingdom (U.K.) was a major policy disaster. The government and public health officials failed to identify the risk to humans, created tremendous uncertainty regarding the human risks once they were identified, and undertook a series of policies that undermined public trust. In contrast, the mad cow disease risk never became a major problem in the United States (U.S.). The lead time that the U.S. had in responding to the disease that was first identified in the U.K. assisted in planning the policy response to avert a crisis. The absence of a comparable U.S. crisis, however, does not imply that the U.S. risk management approach was a success. Until recently, there was no systematic assessment of the domestic risks of mad cow disease. Moreover, U.S. government agencies have never undertaken a comprehensive assessment of the benefits and costs of any U.S. regulation dealing with mad cow disease. The absence of a sound economic basis for policy is reflected in the United States Department of Agriculture's (USDA) ill-considered decision to prohibit the private testing of beef for mad cow disease. This decision disadvantaged companies that sought such testing in order to comply with foreign testing regulations. In the absence of such testing, U.S. beef exports plummeted. One company that attempted to implement a testing program launched a legal challenge to the USDA prohibition and was unsuccessful. The policy failures in both the U.K. and the U.S. provide several lessons for regulating invasive species risks and dealing with emerging risks more generally. We conclude with a series of ten public policy lessons for dealing with similar emerging risks.
A Theory of Constitutional Standards and Civil Liberty

Why would potentially intolerant majorities in a democracy protect the rights of unpopular groups? This paper models the formation of legal standards that determine the extent of civil liberty in a society. It is shown that tolerant legal standards emerge over time, despite all individuals having intolerant preferences. Each period citizens choose activities that have social consequences. A majority vote determines which of these activities are legally protected. Because of errors in interpreting the symbolic content of these activities, voters from the majority will not impose excessively intolerant standards, otherwise they may end up severely punishing members of their own group by mistake. Extending this framework to a dynamic model, we examine Markovian equilibria of the game when government improves with time in its ability to correctly interpret citizens' activities. These improvements allow an unchanging majority to impose increasingly intolerant standards over time. It is shown that societies with high political turnover due to population changes are apt to choose tolerant legal standards. Societies with low turnover are more apt to choose more intolerant and unstable ones. Each group seeks to prevent auditing capabilities of government from improving too much over time in order to prevent future majorities from successfully enforcing more intolerant standards.
Employee Movements from Audit Firms to Audit Clients

Regulators have expressed concerns about the “revolving door” between auditors and clients, whereby audit employees move directly from audit firms to audit clients (i.e., “direct alumni hires”). Regulators are concerned that these direct hires could compromise audit quality, partly because these employees could have previously audited their hiring company's financial statements. In contrast, we examine accounting and finance executives who move indirectly from audit firms to audit clients and who could not have previously audited the hiring company's financial statements (i.e., “indirect alumni hires”). We show that indirect hires occur more often than the direct hires that have concerned regulators. We predict and find that both direct and indirect alumni hires are associated with lower rates of executive turnover and audit firm turnover. However, there is no evidence that the reduced rates of executive turnover are explained by managerial entrenchment or that these hires are associated with lower audit quality. Overall, our findings suggest that direct and indirect employee movements from audit firms to audit clients are beneficial to executives, audit clients, and audit firms because they reduce the incidence of costly turnover. Mouvements des employes des cabinets d'audit vers les clients des services d'audit Les autorites de reglementation se sont dites preoccupees par la « porte tournante » qui permet le passage direct des employes des cabinets d'audit de ces cabinets aux clients des services d'audit (c'est‐a‐dire l’« embauche directe de diplomes »). Elles s'inquietent de la possibilite que ces embauches directes compromettent la qualite de l'audit, en partie du fait que ces employes pourraient avoir participe anterieurement a l'audit des etats financiers de la societe qui les embauche. Les auteurs etudient, par contre, le cas des cadres en comptabilite et en finance qui passent indirectement des cabinets d'audit aux clients des services d'audit et qui pourraient ne pas avoir anterieurement participe a l'audit des etats financiers de la societe qui les embauche (soit le cas de l’« embauche indirecte de diplomes »). Ils constatent que les embauches indirectes sont plus frequentes que les embauches directes qui preoccupent les autorites de reglementation. Ils formulent et confirment l'hypothese selon laquelle les embauches de diplomes, tant directes qu'indirectes, sont associees a des taux inferieurs de rotation des cadres et de rotation au sein des cabinets d'audit. Toutefois, rien n'atteste que ces taux reduits de rotation des cadres puissent s'expliquer par l'enracinement des cadres, ou que ces embauches soient associees a une qualite inferieure de l'audit. Dans l'ensemble, les observations des auteurs laissent croire que les mouvements directs et indirects des employes des cabinets d'audit vers les clients des services d'audit sont avantageux pour les cadres, les clients des services d'audit et les cabinets d'audit puisqu'ils reduisent l'incidence des couts associes a la rotation.
Targeting, Accountability and Capture in Development Projects

If development projects are to be effective, a minimum requirement is that the funding reaches its intended destination. Yet the history of international development is replete with examples of this not happening. I argue that there will be fewer problems with corruption or other diversions of funding—which I jointly label capture—in more precisely targeted projects. More well-defined targeting results in superior accountability relationships because there is greater clarity of responsibility, clearer information about outcomes, and improved identifiability of stakeholders. I use an original cross-country, cross-project data set on the incidence of capture in World Bank-funded investment projects to test the theory. The data show a negative relationship between targeting and capture, and I demonstrate that this relationship is robust to a variety of specifications. In addition, I find that there is a higher baseline likelihood of project capture in countries perceived as more corrupt according to commonly used survey-based measures from Transparency International and the Worldwide Governance Indicators, cross-validating those measures and my own.