Occupation and fertility on the frontier: Evidence from the state of Utah

AbstractBACKGROUNDMost of what we know about fertility decline in the United States comes from aggregate (often state or county level) data sources. It is difficult to identify variation in fertility change across socio-economic classes in such data, although understanding such variation would provide deeper insight into the history of the fertility transition.OBJECTIVEWe use rich micro-level data to examine differences across occupational classes in fertility levels and in the timing and pace of change in fertility in the US state of Utah in the late 19th and early 20th centuries.METHODSOur evidence comes from the Utah Population Database, which contains several generations of linked family histories, including information on residents of Utah from the mid-1800s to the present. We use standard linear regression models to identify variation in fertility across birth cohorts and occupational classes as well as cohort-occupation interaction effects (to identify differences across classes in the pace of change over time)RESULTSFamilies of white collar workers led changes in many fertility-related behaviors, particularly those tied to the start of family life (marriage age and first birth interval). Farm families had high fertility levels and added children into late ages, although they also experienced declining fertility.CONCLUSIONSExamination of detailed micro-level data on fertility change identifies important differences in the patterns of change which may be tied to variation in relevant economic circumstances - for instance, the length of education and training required for particular occupations, or the need for family-based labor on the farm.1. IntroductionThe United States of the 19th century was marked by initially quite high fertility levels but also by the onset of a relatively early decline in fertility. The US frontier was characterized by high fertility relative to the US norm, and regional differences between East and West are an important theme in the study of fertility patterns of the time. Even in the Western US, however, the move to lower levels of fertility is clearly visible among women born in the mid-1800s.Most of what we know about these patterns in the US comes from aggregate data. Often, county- or even state-level measures of fertility (e.g., child/woman ratios) are compared to local economic and demographic parameters to gain insight into the sources of fertility differentials and to uncover the sources of change over time. Guinnane's recent survey emphasizes the need for more micro -level evidence on the patterns and sources of fertility change, particularly micro-level evidence on wealth, income, and occupation differentials in fertility behavior (Guinnane 2011: 610). We take up this challenge by examining patterns of fertility change in the state of Utah in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. We use records from the Utah Population Database (Smith 2012), particularly family history records linked to death certificates, and focus on occupational differentials in the level of, and change in, the number of children born to a woman, along with several other fertility-related behaviors: age at marriage, the interval from marriage to first birth, the average inter-birth interval, and age at last birth. Our results suggest that there was substantial commonality in the timing of change in fertility across socioeconomic strata (as mea sured by spouse's occupation). Still, some differences in these behaviors across occupational classes did emerge during the era of the fertility transition. The households of white collar workers and of farmers typically defined the bounds of these behaviors, with white collar households often "leading" change and other occupational groups, including farm households, closing the gap over time.2. Fertility and the economy during the fertility transition in the USThe traditional view of the fertility decline in the US emphasizes its early beginnings, in the first decades of the 1800s or even the final decades of the 1700s, as well as the fact that this decline occurred in the context of pervasive marriage at young ages relative to European countries. …