Using Segmentation Modeling To Predict Graduation at a Two-Year Technical College.

Introduction The rate at which college students are retained and graduate has been the focus of considerable attention and discussion in both the academic and public arenas (Reisberg, 1999). Of particular concern is the steady drop in graduation rates at both two-year and four-year institutions (ACT, 2001). Retention and graduation rates are a prominent topic at The Ohio State University, Wooster Campus, Agricultural Technical Institute (OSUATI). OSU-ATI is a small, residential, two-year technical college that operates as a branch campus of OSU. Typical enrollment is about 900 students, and most are majoring in horticulture or agriculture. The campus has an open-admission policy, and many of the students are underprepared or otherwise classified as at risk. The population is composed predominately of first-time, traditional-age, degree-seeking students who enroll full time. Most of the students live on or near the campus. The technical college attracts students who are primarily interested in, and motivated by, coursework and learning activities that emphasize applications that are career related. Developing and offering activities and services that help improve retention is part of the staff responsibilities in both the academic affairs and student services offices. Ad hoc committees are formed periodically to address this issue and make recommendations for improving retention and graduation rates. The most recent committee charged with this responsibility developed and administered a survey to students and faculty and made several recommendations as a result (Baur & Kreps, 1996). However, Kalsbeek (1987) cautioned that such "one-time snapshots" concerning retention may reflect more of an "event perspective" than a "process perspective" and may be only "minimally useful" (p. 33). Tinto (1993) and Noel, Levitz, and Saluri (1985) have written comprehensive texts on the subject of retention. Hyers and Joslin (1998), Mouw and Khanna (1993), and Tinto (1993) have conducted recent reviews of the literature regarding prediction of academic success in college. Schurr, Ruble, Palomba, Pickerill, and Moore (1997) also conducted a recent review of the literature regarding attrition with an emphasis on studies involving personality type. Both academic variables, such as high school performance and standardized test scores, and noncognitive variables, such as motivation and institutional involvement, have been identified by researchers as important predictors of, and factors affecting, student success in college. Tinto (1975) developed a model which implies that students' academic and social characteristics and backgrounds strongly affect their integration and involvement in the formal and informal college environment and, therefore, their persistence. It is well documented that, in general, students of higher academic ability and better academic preparation are more likely to persist and graduate than are students of lower ability and less preparation (Wilkie & Redondo, 1996; Tinto, 1993). High school rank, GPA, and SAT or ACT scores are traditionally used by colleges nationwide to predict the academic performance and success of matriculating students. However, both Mouw and Khanna (1993) and Tinto (1993) concluded that the ability of any academic or noncognitive variable to predict college success is very low. One of the authors (Zimmerman) has taught (for eight years) one section of a one-credit, five-week orientation course that is required for all full-time students enrolled in Associate of Applied Science (A.A.S.) terminal degree programs at OSU-ATI. Although OSU-ATI also offers an Associate of Sciences (A.S.) transfer program, students in that program are required to enroll in a different orientation course. Students are randomly assigned to course sections with the exception of nontraditional and transfer students who are enrolled in specifically designated sections. As a course instructor, this author has access to the academic records of the matriculating students who are assigned to his sections. …