The geographic context of divorce : Do neighborhoods matter?

Neighborhood effects on family formation processes have recently received considerable attention, but no study has yet examined the impact of neighborhood socioeconomic status on marital dissolution. This analysis merges data from 3,523 respondents to the Panel Study of Income Dynamics with census data describing the socioeconomic composition of local communities. Although a multiitem index of neighborhood socioeconomic disadvantage is positively and significantly related to the risk of divorce, this association can be explained entirely by the low incomes of husbands in distressed neighborhoods. Thus, there appears to be no direct causal influence of neighborhood socioeconomic status on marital instability. To the extent that neighborhood socioeconomic disadvantage increases the prevalence of single-parent families, it apparently does so by increasing rates of out-of-wedlock childbearing rather than by disrupting existing marriages among couples with children. Key Words: communities, divorce, martial instability, neighborhoods. The geographic concentration of social problems in poor, inner-city communities has kindled interest in the effects of neighborhood structure and composition on urban social dislocations. Inspired in large measure by Wilson's (1987, 1996) influential treatises, this burgeoning "neighborhood effects" literature has of late become something of a growth industry (Ellen & Turner, 1997; Gephart, 1997). Because of the high prevalence of singleparent families in low-income neighborhoods (Jargowsky, 1997), particular attention has been given to the impact of neighborhood socioeconomic disadvantage-often measured by low levels of employment, income, education, and occupational status-on family formation patterns. For example, recent studies have examined the effects of neighborhood socioeconomic disadvantage on adolescent sexual activity (Billy, Brewster, & Grady, 1994; Brewster, 1994a, 1994b; Brewster, Billy, & Grady, 1993; Hogan & Kitagawa, 1985; RamirezValles, Zimmerman, & Newcomb, 1998; Upchurch, Aneshensel, Sucoff, & Levy-Storms, 1999), premarital pregnancy and childbearing (Billy & Moore, 1992; Brooks-Gunn, Duncan, Klebanov, & Sealand, 1993; Crane, 1991; Ku, Sonenstein, & Pleck, 1993; Mayer, 1991; Sucoff & Upchurch, 1998), and the transition to marriage (Massey & Shibuya, 1995; South & Crowder, 1999). Although exceptions can be found (e.g., Evans, Oates, & Schwab, 1992; Plotnick & Hoffman, 1999), in general these studies suggest that neighborhood socioeconomic disadvantage increases the likelihood of experiencing a disrupted family structure over and above the influence of individuals' own economic and social characteristics. Given this concern with how community structure affects family-related events, it is perhaps surprising that no study has yet examined directly the impact of neighborhood socioeconomic disadvantage on the stability of existing marriages. Wilson's (1987) theory of neighborhood effects clearly posits such an impact, noting the weak support for the institution of marriage in socioeconon-tically disadvantaged neighborhoods. Moreover, although nonmarriage and nonmarital fertility, which have received substantial attention in the neighborhood effects literature, are important proximate causes of the rise in single-parent families, the dissolution of existing marriages through divorce and separation is also an important contributor to the formation of "disrupted" families (Rendall, 1999). Consequently, the possible causal role of neighborhood socioeconomic status in explaining variation in marital instability deserves attention. The primary purpose of this paper is to determine whether neighborhood socioeconomic disadvantage influences the risk of divorce and separation over and above conventional determinants of marital dissolution and instability. The analysis draws on data from 3,523 respondents observed in the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) between 1969 and 1993. …