News Finding: The study, which appears in Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, finds that the risk of a disease outbreak is highest if the HRE occurs early in the transmission season, or the period of time when mosquitoes are able to pass on the virus to humans.
Paper Finding: The risk of outbreaks is highest if an HRE occurs early in the transmission season, and lowest if it occurs late in the season.
News Context: The study, which appears in Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, finds that the risk of a disease outbreak is highest if the HRE occurs early in the transmission season, or the period of time when mosquitoes are able to pass on the virus to humans. According to the study, an HRE that occurs on July 1 results in 70 percent fewer disease cases compared to an HRE that occurs on June 1. "The warmer it is, the faster an infected mosquito will be able to transmit the virus.
Paper Context: We found that the primary drivers of the impact of HREs on mosquito-borne infectious disease include the timing of those events relative to the transmission season, and the proportion of the population displaced during an HRE event. The risk of outbreaks is highest if an HRE occurs early in the transmission season, and lowest if it occurs late in the season. For instance, the cumulative number of cases decreases by 70% for the scenario with an HRE occurring on 1 July relative to the scenario with an HRE occurring on 1 June in the absence of population displacement.