copenlu/druid huggingface dataset:
Claim: You have a 0.03[%] chance of dying from [COVID-19] in the state of California. [...] it’s similar to the flu. (Daniel Erickson, Artin Massihi, 2020-04-22)
Evidence (2022-09-14): The risk for COVID-19–associated mortality increases with age, disability, and underlying medical conditions (1). Early in the emergence of the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, mortality among hospitalized COVID-19 patients was lower than that during previous pandemic peaks (2–5), and some health authorities reported that a substantial proportion of COVID-19 hospitalizations were not primarily for COVID-19–related illness,* which might account for the lower mortality among hospitalized patients. Using a large hospital administrative database, CDC assessed in-hospital mortality risk overall and by demographic and clinical characteristics during the Delta (July–October 2021), early Omicron (January–March 2022), and later Omicron (April–June 2022) variant periods† among patients hospitalized primarily for COVID-19. Model-estimated adjusted mortality risk differences (aMRDs) (measures of absolute risk) and adjusted mortality risk ratios (aMRRs) (measures of relative risk) for in-hospital death were calculated comparing the early and later Omicron periods with the Delta period. Crude mortality risk (cMR) (deaths per 100 patients hospitalized primarily for COVID-19) was lower during the early Omicron (13.1) and later Omicron (4.9) periods than during the Delta (15.1) period (p<0.001).
Claim: You have a 0.03[%] chance of dying from [COVID-19] in the state of California. [...] it’s similar to the flu. (Daniel Erickson, Artin Massihi, 2020-04-22)
Evidence (2022-01-23): There is no increased risk for mortality among COVID-19 vaccine recipients. This finding reinforces the safety profile of currently approved COVID-19 vaccines in the United States. All persons aged ≥12 years should receive a COVID-19 vaccine. [...] 1Research and Evaluation, Kaiser Permanente Southern California, Pasadena, California; 2CDC COVID-19 Response Team; 3HealthPartners Institute, Minneapolis, Minnesota; 4Institute for Health Research, Kaiser Permanente Colorado, Denver, Colorado; 5Kaiser Permanente Vaccine Study Center, Kaiser Permanente Northern California, Oakland, California; 6Marshfield Clinic Research Institute, Marshfield, Wisconsin; 7Center for Health Research, Kaiser Permanente Northwest, Portland, Oregon; 8Immunization Safety Office, CDC. [...] Health and Human Services.
Claim: You have a 0.03[%] chance of dying from [COVID-19] in the state of California. [...] it’s similar to the flu. (Daniel Erickson, Artin Massihi, 2020-04-22)
Evidence (2020-11-18): Probably the most useful measure is the infection-fatality rate (IFR), which answers the question, "If I get sick, what is the chance that I will die?" The IFR is calculated by dividing the number of COVID deaths by the number of COVID infections: [...] Second, the IFR slowly increases with age through the 60-64 age group. But after that, beginning with the 65-69 age group, the IFR rises sharply. This group has an overall IFR just over 1% (or 1 death for every 100 infected). That's a fairly major risk of death. (The red line in the chart marks where the "1% threshold" is crossed.) The IFR then grows substantially and becomes quite scary for people in their 70s and older. People in the 75-79 age group have more than a 3% chance of dying if infected with coronavirus, while people aged 80 and over have more than an 8% chance of dying. That's roughly the same chance as rolling a four with two dice.
Claim: You have a 0.03[%] chance of dying from [COVID-19] in the state of California. [...] it’s similar to the flu. (Daniel Erickson, Artin Massihi, 2020-04-22)
Evidence (2023-04-18): The 1% case fatality rate of COVID-19 can be thought of as the running percentage of COVID-19 cases that have resulted in death. It doesn’t represent the true average probability of death, though, since the virus, and the global population’s immunity and behavior, have changed so much over time. The conditions are not constant. [...] The biological process of a disease leading to death is complex and uncertain. It is unpredictable and therefore random. Each person has a real physical risk of dying from COVID-19, though this risk varies over time and place and between individuals. So, at best, 1% could be the average probability of death within the population. [...] Case fatality rate is a probability, but only when you look at the specific data set it was directly calculated from. If you were to write the outcome of every COVID-19 case in that data set on a strip of paper and randomly select one from a hat, you have a 1% chance of selecting a case that ended in death. Doing this only for cases from a particular group, such as a group of older adults with a higher risk or young children with a lower risk, would cause the percentage to be higher or lower. This is why 1% may not be a great estimate of personal risk for every person across all demographic groups.
Claim: You have a 0.03[%] chance of dying from [COVID-19] in the state of California. [...] it’s similar to the flu. (Daniel Erickson, Artin Massihi, 2020-04-22)
Evidence (2022-02-24): Thankfully, most people who get COVID–19 don’t become seriously ill – especially those who are vaccinated. But a small fraction do get hospitalized, and a smaller fraction do die. If you are vaccinated and catch the coronavirus, what are your chances of getting hospitalized or dying? [...] To calculate the risk of hospitalization or death after getting infected with SARS-CoV-2 you need to know the total number of infections. The problem is that nobody knows exactly how many people have been infected by the coronavirus. So while it is very hard to estimate the true risk of dying if you are vaccinated and come down with COVID-19, there are some ways to better understand the risks. [...] If you have enough good data, it would be possible to calculate the risk of hospitalization or death. You would need to count the number of people who were hospitalized or died and divide that number by the total number of infections. It’s also important to take into account time delays between infection, hospitalization and death. Doing this calculation would give you the true infection hospitalization or fatality rate. The trouble is health officials don’t know with certainty how many people have been infected.
Claim: You have a 0.03[%] chance of dying from [COVID-19] in the state of California. [...] it’s similar to the flu. (Daniel Erickson, Artin Massihi, 2020-04-22)
Evidence (2020-10-06): The absolute risk of dying from Covid-19 per million population (assuming Covid-19 deaths reach 225,000) already has been reported by Avik Roy here for all of the age categories shown in Fig. 1. That measure is extremely useful in seeing how dramatically the risk rises with age, but a) it is a figure that will keep rising along with the number of Covid-19 deaths; b) most Americans might not know how to interpret the figures without some reference of comparison. [...] Probability of Dying from Covid-19 [...] In contrast 54,000 micromorts is roughly 1.5 times as high as the risk of dying while climbing Mt. Everest. Few Americans would voluntarily undertake any activity for which the risk of dying exceeded five percent. The average person age 70 or greater already faces nearly a four percent risk of death from other causes. Getting infected with Covid-19 multiplies this baseline fatality risk by 140 percent! In contrast, someone under 20 years old who gets Covid only increases their baseline risk of death by six percent.
Claim: You have a 0.03[%] chance of dying from [COVID-19] in the state of California. [...] it’s similar to the flu. (Daniel Erickson, Artin Massihi, 2020-04-22)
Evidence (2020-03-05): In the media, it is often the "case fatality rate" that is talked about when the risk of death from COVID-19 is discussed.1 [...] There is a straightforward question that most people would like answered. If someone is infected with COVID-19, how likely is that person to die? [...] Whenever there are cases of the disease that are not counted, the probability of dying from the disease is lower than the reported case fatality rate. Remember our imaginary scenario with 10 deaths and 100 cases. The CFR in that example is 10% – but if there actually 500 cases (and we’ve simply missed 400 of them due to lack of testing), then the real risk (the IFR) is just 2%.
Claim: You have a 0.03[%] chance of dying from [COVID-19] in the state of California. [...] it’s similar to the flu. (Daniel Erickson, Artin Massihi, 2020-04-22)
Evidence (2024-04-30): If you have more than one risk factor, your risk goes up with each one. [...] The risk of serious COVID-19 illness also is higher for people who have conditions that damage lung tissue over time. Examples are tuberculosis, cystic fibrosis, interstitial lung disease, bronchiectasis or COPD, which stands for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. These diseases raise the risk of needing care in the hospital for COVID-19. Depending on the condition, the risk of needing intensive care and the risk of death from COVID-19 also may go up. [...] - Avoid close contact with anyone who is sick or has symptoms, if possible.
Claim: You have a 0.03[%] chance of dying from [COVID-19] in the state of California. [...] it’s similar to the flu. (Daniel Erickson, Artin Massihi, 2020-04-22)
Evidence (2020-08-28): The coronavirus is most deadly if you are older and male — new data reveal the risks A slew of detailed studies has now quantified the increased risk the virus poses to older people, men, and other groups. [...] For every 1,000 people infected with the coronavirus who are under the age of 50, almost none will die. For people in their fifties and early sixties, about five will die — more men than women. The risk then climbs steeply as the years accrue. For every 1,000 people in their mid-seventies or older who are infected, around 116 will die. These are the stark statistics obtained by some of the first detailed studies into the mortality risk for COVID-19.
Claim: You have a 0.03[%] chance of dying from [COVID-19] in the state of California. [...] it’s similar to the flu. (Daniel Erickson, Artin Massihi, 2020-04-22)
Evidence (2021-08-13): The claim: You have a 2.4% chance of getting COVID-19 and a 0.05% chance of dying from it [...] In the video, which was originally published on TikTok before spreading to Instagram on Aug. 4, the video creator ran the numbers for the world’s approximate population, global COVID-19 cases and corresponding deaths. She concluded there's a 2.4% chance of contracting COVID-19 and a 0.05% chance of dying from it. [...] Based on our research, we rate PARTLY FALSE the claim that a given person has a 2.4% chance of getting COVID and a 0.05% chance of dying from it. These figures are roughly correct on a global scale, but at an individual level the risk varies hugely, experts say. The chances of getting sick or dying from COVID-19 vary based on individual factors like age, health history and location.
Claim: You have a 0.03[%] chance of dying from [COVID-19] in the state of California. [...] it’s similar to the flu. (Daniel Erickson, Artin Massihi, 2020-04-22)
Evidence (2022-01-23): Compared with influenza, COVID-19 is associated with increased risk for most respiratory and nonrespiratory complications. Certain racial and ethnic minority groups are disproportionally affected by COVID-19. [...] Patients with COVID-19 had almost 19 times the risk for acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) than did patients with influenza, (adjusted risk ratio [aRR] = 18.60; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 12.40–28.00), and more than twice the risk for myocarditis (2.56; 1.17–5.59), deep vein thrombosis (2.81; 2.04–3.87), pulmonary embolism (2.10; 1.53–2.89), intracranial hemorrhage (2.85; 1.35–6.03), acute hepatitis/liver failure (3.13; 1.92–5.10), bacteremia (2.46; 1.91–3.18), and pressure ulcers (2.65; 2.14–3.27). The risks for exacerbations of asthma (0.27; 0.16–0.44) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (0.37; 0.32–0.42) were lower among patients with COVID-19 than among those with influenza. The percentage of COVID-19 patients who died while hospitalized (21.0%) was more than five times that of influenza patients (3.8%), and the duration of hospitalization was almost three times longer for COVID-19 patients. Among patients with COVID-19, the risk for respiratory, neurologic, and renal complications, and sepsis was higher among non-Hispanic Black or African American (Black) patients, patients of other races, and Hispanic or Latino (Hispanic) patients compared with those in non-Hispanic White (White) patients, even after adjusting for age and underlying medical conditions.
Claim: You have a 0.03[%] chance of dying from [COVID-19] in the state of California. [...] it’s similar to the flu. (Daniel Erickson, Artin Massihi, 2020-04-22)
Evidence (2022-06-07): Jeremy Roland, California Emerging Infections Program; Jordan Surgnier, Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment; Carol Lyons, Connecticut Emerging Infections Program, Yale School of Public Health; Kyle Openo, Georgia Emerging Infections Program, Georgia Department of Health, Division of Infectious Diseases, Emory University School of Medicine; Kenzie Teno, Iowa Department of Health; Alexander Kohrman, Michigan Department of Health and Human Services; Erica Bye, Minnesota Department of Health; Cory Cline, New Mexico Department of Health; Alison Muse, New York State Department of Health; Virginia Cafferky, University of Rochester School of Medicine and Dentistry; Laurie Billing, Ohio Department of Health; Nasreen Abdullah, Public Health Division, Oregon Health Authority; William Schaffner, Vanderbilt University Medical Center; Keegan McCaffrey, Utah Department of Health
Claim: You have a 0.03[%] chance of dying from [COVID-19] in the state of California. [...] it’s similar to the flu. (Daniel Erickson, Artin Massihi, 2020-04-22)
Evidence (2021-03-01): Large datasets demonstrate that cancer is independently associated with mortality in hospitalized patients with COVID-19.4 Not all cancers appear to have equal risks of morbidity and mortality, with a mortality range from 8% to 30%.5 [...] Patients with lung cancer and those with hematological malignancies appear to be at the highest risk of death from to SARS-CoV-2 infection.6 In contrast to hematologic malignancies, profoundly immunosuppressive therapy is not typical in lung cancer. [...] As reported in the CCC-19 results, TERAVOLT confirmed the COVID-19 related general risk factors for mortality, including age and comorbidities as well as cancer-specific factors, namely PS (≥2 vs <2), and the use of steroids prior to COVID-19 diagnosis.28–30
Claim: You have a 0.03[%] chance of dying from [COVID-19] in the state of California. [...] it’s similar to the flu. (Daniel Erickson, Artin Massihi, 2020-04-22)
Evidence (2020-07-20): These results demonstrate how much more deadly the Spanish flu was than COVID-19 has been so far. In particular, in the United States, deaths due to Spanish flu as a percentage of the population were over 13 times higher than deaths due to COVID-19 thus far. In order for COVID-19 to kill the same fraction of the United States population as the Spanish flu did, American COVID-19 deaths would have to rise by over 1.5 million people. [...] Although the Spanish flu and COVID-19 are two different illnesses, and although COVID-19 is still ongoing, these disparities in mortality statistics as a percentage of these countries’ populations are also a testament to how societies have evolved over the past century. In the United States, for example, over the past hundred years, life expectancy has increased more than 40 percent, and per capita real income in the U.S. has increased over 500 percent.REF It is well understood that as societies grow wealthier, they are more capable of adapting to adverse situations.REF Additionally, economic growth has resulted in improvements to medical technology and living conditions among many other factors.REF Many societies are thus much better equipped now to deal with a serious health emergency than in the past.
Claim: You have a 0.03[%] chance of dying from [COVID-19] in the state of California. [...] it’s similar to the flu. (Daniel Erickson, Artin Massihi, 2020-04-22)
Evidence (2018-10-12): UCSF Osher Center for Integrative Medicine [...] University of California San Francisco San Francisco, CA 94143-0874
Claim: You have a 0.03[%] chance of dying from [COVID-19] in the state of California. [...] it’s similar to the flu. (Daniel Erickson, Artin Massihi, 2020-04-22)
Evidence (2024-03-24): Nasopharyngeal carriage rates are highest in adolescents and young adults who serve as reservoirs for transmission of N. meningitidis.
Claim: You have a 0.03[%] chance of dying from [COVID-19] in the state of California. [...] it’s similar to the flu. (Daniel Erickson, Artin Massihi, 2020-04-22)
Evidence (2020-04-26): We’ve tested over 4 million… which gives us a 19.6% positive out of those who are tested for COVID-19. So if this is a typical extrapolation 328 million people times 19.6 is 64 million. That’s a significant amount of people with COVID; it’s similar to the flu. If you study the numbers in 2017 and 2018 we had 50 to 60 million with the flu. And we had a similar death rate in the deaths the United States were 43,545—similar to the flu of 2017-2018. We always have between 37,000 and 60,000 deaths in the United States, every single year. No pandemic talk. No shelter-in-place. No shutting down businesses…
Claim: You have a 0.03[%] chance of dying from [COVID-19] in the state of California. [...] it’s similar to the flu. (Daniel Erickson, Artin Massihi, 2020-04-22)
Evidence (2024-03-12): To find ways to save lives, it’s essential to know what people are dying from. Explore global data and research on causes of death. [...] See the data in our interactive visualization [...] Other cases may be detected during routine check-ups, other healthcare visits, or emergency admissions.
Claim: You have a 0.03[%] chance of dying from [COVID-19] in the state of California. [...] it’s similar to the flu. (Daniel Erickson, Artin Massihi, 2020-04-22)
Evidence (2024-08-12): Patients who are critically ill with COVID-19 pulmonary disease and dysfunction needing significant ventilatory support with invasive mechanical ventilation or ECMO have the highest risk of mortality. Pharmacologically, we recommend treating them similarly to those on non-invasive ventilation or high-flow nasal cannula. Corticosteroids are strongly recommended in this category of critically ill patients as trials have demonstrated a mortality benefit [79]. In ad-dition to steroids, the panel recommends using either IL-6 inhibitors (tocilizumab is preferred over sarilumab) in critically ill patients who have elevated inflammatory markers like CRP. In situations where IL-6 inhibitors are not available, baricitinib can be used in mechanically venti-lated patients as a small trial showed a mortality benefit in this population [278]. Most other COVID-19 therapies studied in other severities have either not demonstrated benefit or not been studied in this population. [...] CI: confidence interval; RR: risk ratio [...] 242. Malden DE, Hong V, Lewin BJ, et al. Hospitalization and Emergency Department Encounters for COVID-19 After Paxlovid Treatment - California, December 2021-May 2022. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2022; 71(25): 830-3.
Claim: You have a 0.03[%] chance of dying from [COVID-19] in the state of California. [...] it’s similar to the flu. (Daniel Erickson, Artin Massihi, 2020-04-22)
Evidence (2024-09-12): Differential diagnosis - COVID-19 cannot be easily distinguished from other causes of viral respiratory infections, such as influenza, RSV, other respiratory viruses, or community-acquired pneumonia, based only on clinical grounds. [...] - The case fatality rate remains higher than seasonal influenza, especially in advanced elderly and those with multiple comorbidities transplant patients. [...] Comment: Antigen testing is now in the sensitivity range similar to influenza RIDTs. The overall sensitivity of daily antigen testing was only 47% but rose to 77% on days of fever. If people were asymptomatic, it was only 18%.
Claim: You have a 0.03[%] chance of dying from [COVID-19] in the state of California. [...] it’s similar to the flu. (Daniel Erickson, Artin Massihi, 2020-04-22)
Evidence (2022-01-03): Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to evaluate the associations between alcohol consumption and COVID-19 risk and associated mortality, and to determine the odds ratios (ORs) and 95% CIs after adjusting for age, sex, education, ethnicity, employment, BMI, overall health rating, Townsend, usually walking pace, cerebrovascular diseases, hypertension, cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, respiratory disease, cancer, alcohol drinker status, frequency of alcohol intake, amount of weekly intake level of alcohol consumption, red wine, champagne plus white wine, beer and cider, spirits, and fortified wine. Two-tailed p < 0.05 was considered significant. [...] We further analyzed the association of alcohol consumption with COVID-19 risk among those subjects who have reported the COVID-19 testing results (Figure 2). We found that the results were highly similar to the findings as shown in Figure 1 where the subjects who did not report the COVID-19 testing results were deemed to have a negative COVID-19 testing result. Specially, additional findings of the sensitivity analysis showed that compared with non-drinkers, alcohol consumers had higher risks of COVID-19, regardless of within or above the guidelines (within guidelines, 1.10 [1.02, 1.20]; above guidelines, 1.17 [1.05, 1.30]; and double above the guidelines or more, 1.17 [1.03, 1.33]). [...] The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.
Claim: You have a 0.03[%] chance of dying from [COVID-19] in the state of California. [...] it’s similar to the flu. (Daniel Erickson, Artin Massihi, 2020-04-22)
Evidence (2022-12-14): Similar content being viewed by others [...] Human Mortality Database. Short-term Mortality Fluctuation Data Series (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research and Univ. California Berkeley, accessed 29 March 2022); https://www.mortality.org/Data/STMF. [...] Global estimates of excess deaths from COVID-19
Claim: You have a 0.03[%] chance of dying from [COVID-19] in the state of California. [...] it’s similar to the flu. (Daniel Erickson, Artin Massihi, 2020-04-22)
Evidence (2020-03-11): His team put together a simple table that looks at various scenarios using case fatality ratios ranging from .1, similar to seasonal flu, to .5, a moderately severe pandemic, and 1.0, a severe one. The infection rate ranged from 0.1 percent of the population to 50 percent. That put the range of deaths at 327 (best case) to 1,635,000 (worst case). The deaths would not necessarily happen over a month or a year, but could occur over two or three years, he said. [...] In his Capitol Hill testimony, Fauci said that a plausible covid-19 fatality rate could be 1 percent. That, he said, is 10 times as lethal as seasonal influenza. He was clear: This is more dangerous than the flu. [...] Forecasts have been wrong in the past. Early estimates of the fatality rate for H1N1 in 2009 were much higher than the roughly 0.01 to 0.03 percent it turned out to be. With covid-19, the fatality rate is likely to be in the 0.5 to 1.5 percent range outside Wuhan, according to a report this week from Imperial College London.
Claim: 'Global warming' is a myth — so say 80 graphs from 58 peer-reviewed scientific papers published in 2017. (James Delingpole, 2017-06-06)
Evidence (2017-06-06): These studies of past climate do not challenge the well-researched fact that human activities are responsible for climate change, as many of the scientists behind the studies have confirmed.