copenlu/druid huggingface dataset:
Claim: COVID-19 vaccines increase the risk of miscarriages and stillbirths (Instagram Users, 2023-03-23)
Evidence (2022-05-10): One question of particular interest was the risk of miscarriage following COVID-19 vaccination in early pregnancy. This is particularly important as up to 40% of pregnancies are unintended and may go unrecognised until 4–8 weeks’ gestation or beyond, so that inadvertent vaccination in early pregnancy is likely to be common41. The mRNA vaccine causes both antibody and cellular immune responses; given the importance of T-cell suppression in placental development and fetal wellbeing42, concern has been expressed that the vaccine may increase miscarriage risk. Social media has been full of reports that have fuelled this concern, and many pregnant people have cited this fear as their primary reason for vaccine hesitancy. Our data do not support such concerns, based on both observational data13,19,24,26,27,29 (even when accounting for potential time-varying confounding27,29) and inadvertent exposure in early pregnancy in vaccine trial participants1,2,35,36,37. Our finding of a lower incidence of stillbirths in the vaccinated cohort is important, given that COVID-19 in pregnancy is associated with an increased risk of stillbirth, particularly in the period of Delta dominance43. A recent report of population-level data from Scotland found that following SARS-CoV-2 infection in unvaccinated pregnant people, the perinatal death rate was 22.6 per 1000 births, while in contrast, no vaccinated pregnant people with breakthrough infection suffered a perinatal death44. Taken together with our findings, these data point to the severity of COVID-19 as the mediator of the COVID-19 and stillbirth relationship. However, the observational nature of the original studies, significant statistical heterogeneity observed in the results and other probable confounders should caution not interpret these results as causal.
Claim: COVID-19 vaccines increase the risk of miscarriages and stillbirths (Instagram Users, 2023-03-23)
Evidence (2024-02-06): The current study explored a broad range of neonatal morbidity outcomes after exposure to COVID-19 vaccination in pregnancy. Several of the neonatal outcomes were selected because they touched areas of interest in previous reports of possible adverse events associated with mRNA COVID-19 vaccines administered to children or adults.3,4,19 Suspected adverse events in adults and children—ie, events that have been observed following vaccination, but which were not necessarily related to or caused by the vaccine—that have drawn particular attention include coagulation disorders (thrombosis, bleedings), immune reactions (allergic reactions, Guillain-Barré syndrome), inflammation (myocarditis/pericarditis), and reports of deaths.3,4,19 [...] This study’s findings were robust across many different sensitivity analyses and are unlikely to be the result of a reduction in stillbirths or preterm births. Previous studies have not found that vaccination against COVID-19 during pregnancy influences the risk of miscarriage or stillbirth.10,27 However, COVID-19 infection was recently shown to increase the risk of stillbirth in this study population.28 Although vaccination may have reduced the rate of stillbirths and thereby increased the number of infants at risk for neonatal outcomes, the number of stillbirths was very low and unlikely to have substantially influenced vaccination estimates when restricting to live births. [...] AK, et al. Risk of preterm birth, small for gestational age at birth, and stillbirth after COVID-19 vaccination during pregnancy: population based retrospective cohort study.
Claim: COVID-19 vaccines increase the risk of miscarriages and stillbirths (Instagram Users, 2023-03-23)
Evidence (2023-11-14): A study funded by the National Institutes of Health has found that among more than 1,800 women planning a pregnancy, those who received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine before getting pregnant were no more likely to miscarry than those who were unvaccinated. Similarly, no increased miscarriage risk was found among roughly 1,500 couples whether the male partner was vaccinated before trying to conceive. The findings provide useful information on vaccination safety for couples planning pregnancy. [...] Pregnant people are at higher risk for severe COVID-19 and the accompanying need for hospitalization, intensive care, or needing a ventilator to help them breathe. They are also at higher risk for preterm birth, miscarriage, and stillbirth. Studies have shown that COVID-19 vaccination is effective at reducing severe infection with SARS-CoV-2 and decreasing the chances of hospitalization. Several studies have demonstrated that COVID-19 vaccination early in pregnancy is not associated with a higher risk of miscarriage. Still, many individuals are concerned that the vaccine may raise the risk of miscarriage. According to the study authors, no previous studies have looked at whether there may be a higher risk for miscarriage after COVID-19 vaccination before pregnancy or whether vaccination of the male partner may increase miscarriage risk.
Claim: Arctic sea ice is not melting and there is no indication that we should expect the Arctic sea summer ice to disappear completely, as predicted (Allan Astrup Jensen, 2024-02-06)
Evidence (2024-02-06): Despite short-term fluctuations due to natural variability, the Arctic sea ice extent and volume has decreased over the past few decades. Scientists have established that this decrease is mostly the result of global warming due to human emissions of greenhouse gasses.
Claim: Arctic sea ice is not melting and there is no indication that we should expect the Arctic sea summer ice to disappear completely, as predicted (Allan Astrup Jensen, 2024-02-06)
Evidence (2021-07-02): Arctic sea-ice plays an important role in controlling the planet's temperature, and any problem with this natural thermostat is a cause for concern. Figures from the US space agency (Nasa) suggest the loss of the minimum Arctic sea-ice extent is in the region of 13.1% per decade, based on the 1981 to 2010 average. [...] The disappearance of the sea-ice in a warming world also contributes to rising average surface temperatures. The sea-ice is estimated to reflect 80% of sunlight back into space, meaning it does not warm the surface.
Claim: Arctic sea ice is not melting and there is no indication that we should expect the Arctic sea summer ice to disappear completely, as predicted (Allan Astrup Jensen, 2024-02-06)
Evidence (2020-09-22): US government scientists reported Monday that the Arctic Ocean's floating ice cover has shrivelled to its second lowest extent since satellite records began in 1979. [...] The Arctic could see it's first ice-free summer as early as 2035, researchers reported in Nature Climate Change last month. [...] As it turns out, there are several reasons to be worried about the knock-on consequences of dwindling Arctic sea ice.
Claim: Arctic sea ice is not melting and there is no indication that we should expect the Arctic sea summer ice to disappear completely, as predicted (Allan Astrup Jensen, 2024-02-06)
Evidence (2020-05-06): In short, the answer is a definitive "no," though recent studies have shed important new light on the matter. For example, a 2017 NASA-led study by geophysicists Erik Ivins and Helene Seroussi of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory added evidence to bolster a longstanding hypothesis that a heat source called a mantle plume lies deep below Antarctica's Marie Byrd Land, explaining some of the melting that creates lakes and rivers under the ice sheet. While the study may help explain why the ice sheet collapsed rapidly in an earlier era of rapid climate change and why it’s so unstable today, the researchers emphasized that the heat source isn't a new or increasing threat to the West Antarctic ice sheet, but rather has been going on over geologic timescales, and therefore represents a background contribution to the melting of the ice sheet. [...] Since 2002, the U.S./German Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and GRACE Follow-On (GRACE-FO) satellite missions have recorded a rapid loss of ice mass from Greenland — at a rate of approximately 281 gigatonnes per year. [...] Seroussi notes the changes happening now, especially in West Antarctica, are along the coast, which suggests the changes taking place in the ice sheet have nothing to do with volcanism, but are instead originating in the ocean. Ice streams reaching inland begin to flow and accelerate as ice along the coast disappears.
Claim: Arctic sea ice is not melting and there is no indication that we should expect the Arctic sea summer ice to disappear completely, as predicted (Allan Astrup Jensen, 2024-02-06)
Evidence (2020-10-27): For the Arctic summer sea ice and the mountain glaciers, the topography is not taken into account as either the height of the ice or the spacial extent of high thickness regions is very low. To remove the Arctic summer sea ice during the summer months (June, July and August: JJA), the surface covered by sea ice is darkened and the albedo in this region is replaced by the ocean albedo. With this procedure the energy conservation law is not violated since the ice is not just removed and still retains its function as boundary layer between ocean and atmosphere. Thus we are able to compute the effect of summer sea ice in an energetically self-consistent manner. Note that CLIMBER-2 is mass conserving. Our procedure is similar to the experimental setup of Blackport and Kushner30, who also reduce albedo values of the sea ice instantaneously. They do this for the whole year and all sea ice compared to our setup, where the albedo is changed only in the northern hemisphere in the summer months.
Claim: Arctic sea ice is not melting and there is no indication that we should expect the Arctic sea summer ice to disappear completely, as predicted (Allan Astrup Jensen, 2024-02-06)
Evidence (2022-10-18): Climate Change: Arctic sea ice summer minimum [...] Sea ice that hasn't yet survived a summer melt season is first-year ice. This thin, new ice is vulnerable to melt and disintegration in stormy conditions. Ice that survives a summer melt season can grow thicker and less salty—two things that make it more resistant to melt. Multiyear ice is more likely to survive temperatures that would melt first-year ice, and to survive waves and winds that would break up first-year ice. Although sea ice moves more slowly than ocean water, ice still moves. Carried by ocean currents, Arctic sea ice regularly flows out toward the warmer waters in the Atlantic via the Fram Strait east of Greenland. [...] Arctic sea ice declines are related to the phenomenon known as Arctic amplification: more intense warming in the Arctic than over the rest of the globe. Arctic amplification fits with current scientific understanding of Earth's climate system, and with model projections of global warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions. Multiple factors contribute to Arctic amplification, and sea ice loss is one of them.
Claim: Arctic sea ice is not melting and there is no indication that we should expect the Arctic sea summer ice to disappear completely, as predicted (Allan Astrup Jensen, 2024-02-06)
Evidence (2009-05-15): Layers of frozen seawater cap the Arctic Ocean. This sea ice grows dramatically each winter, usually reaching its maximum in March. It melts just as dramatically each summer, reaching its minimum in September. It is a natural fluctuation that has been going on for thousands of years, but winter and summer trends have become negative in recent decades. [...] The new summer lows, combined with poor wintertime recoveries, have fueled a persistent decline in Arctic sea ice. Since 2002, ice extent at the summer minimum has not returned to anything approaching the long-term average. Though winter ice extent has fluctuated, satellite and in situ observations have shown that there is much less multiyear ice and more annual ice. Cycles of natural variability such as the Arctic Oscillation are known to play a role in Arctic sea ice extent, but the sharp decline cannot be explained by natural variability alone. Natural variability and rising global temperatures have worked together to melt greater amounts of Arctic sea ice. Some modelers have forecast an ice-free Arctic for at least part of the year before the end of the 21st century.
Claim: Arctic sea ice is not melting and there is no indication that we should expect the Arctic sea summer ice to disappear completely, as predicted (Allan Astrup Jensen, 2024-02-06)
Evidence (2024-03-16): Climate change: The 'insane' plan to save the Arctic's sea-ice [...] As sea-ice vanishes, the dark ocean surface can absorb more of the Sun's energy, which accelerates warming. So the researchers want to thicken it to stop it melting away. [...] The Arctic Ocean is likely to be effectively free of sea-ice by the end of summer at least once by 2050, and possibly even sooner. As the graph below shows, it's already experienced steep declines since the 1980s.
Claim: Arctic sea ice is not melting and there is no indication that we should expect the Arctic sea summer ice to disappear completely, as predicted (Allan Astrup Jensen, 2024-02-06)
Evidence (2023-06-06): The Arctic Ocean could be ice-free in summer by the 2030s, even if we do a good job of reducing emissions between now and then. That’s the worrying conclusion of a new study in Nature Communications. Predictions of an ice-free Arctic Ocean have a long and complicated history, and the 2030s is sooner than most scientists had thought possible (though it is later than some had wrongly forecast). What we know for sure is the disappearance of sea ice at the top of the world would not only be an emblematic sign of climate breakdown, but it would have global, damaging and dangerous consequences. [...] But Arctic sea ice is an important component of the climate system. As it dramatically reduces the amount of sunlight absorbed by the ocean, removing this ice is predicted to further accelerate warming, through a process known as a positive feedback. This, in turn, will make the Greenland ice sheet melt faster, which is already a major contributor to sea level rise.
Claim: Arctic sea ice is not melting and there is no indication that we should expect the Arctic sea summer ice to disappear completely, as predicted (Allan Astrup Jensen, 2024-02-06)
Evidence (2024-05-31): It’s not just rising air and water temperatures influencing the decades-long decline of Arctic sea ice. Clouds, aerosols, even the bumps and dips on the ice itself can play a role. To explore how these factors interact and impact sea ice melting, NASA is flying two aircraft equipped with scientific instruments over the Arctic Ocean north of Greenland this summer. The first flights of the field campaign, called ARCSIX (Arctic Radiation Cloud Aerosol Surface Interaction Experiment), successfully began taking measurements on May 28. "The ARCSIX mission aims to measure the evolution of the sea ice pack over the course of an entire summer," said Patrick Taylor, deputy science lead with the campaign from NASA’s Langley Research Center in Hampton, Virginia. "There are many different factors that influence the sea ice. We’re measuring them to determine which were most important to melting ice this summer." [...] "The area off the northern coast of Greenland can be considered the last bastion of multi-year sea ice, as the Arctic transitions to a seasonally ice-free ocean," Schmidt said. "By observing here, we will gain insight into cloud-aerosol-sea ice-interaction processes of the ‘old’ and ‘new’ Arctic — all while improving satellite-based remote sensing by comparing what we’re seeing with the airborne and satellite instruments."
Claim: Arctic sea ice is not melting and there is no indication that we should expect the Arctic sea summer ice to disappear completely, as predicted (Allan Astrup Jensen, 2024-02-06)
Evidence (2024-10-03): The Arctic is warming faster than anywhere else on the planet, and as a result, sea ice in the Arctic Ocean is decreasing. Sea ice loss has far-reaching effects on the planet because the ice helps regulate Earth’s climate, influences global weather patterns, and affects ocean circulations. Sea Ice Today began as a way to make sea ice science and analysis more relevant and accessible. In combination, NASA data and NSIDC expertise provide easy-to-use resources and tools to increase our understanding of climate change in the Arctic. [...] This website is funded by NASA and managed by NSIDC that provides the latest satellite data and scientific analyses of sea ice conditions in the Arctic and around Antarctica. Sea Ice Today was originally known as Arctic Sea Ice News & Analysis (ASINA) from 2007-2024, when we rebranded as Sea Ice Today.
Claim: Arctic sea ice is not melting and there is no indication that we should expect the Arctic sea summer ice to disappear completely, as predicted (Allan Astrup Jensen, 2024-02-06)
Evidence (2020-05-13): A new analysis, using global climate models, predicts that most of the Arctic Ocean could become ice-free during summer by 2050. This new forecast, which used continuous and consistent satellite observations generated via ESA’s Climate Change Initiative, suggests that the future of the Arctic’s sea-ice cover critically depends on future carbon dioxide emissions. Each year, Arctic sea ice goes through a seasonal cycle, growing in area and thickness through the cooler winter months before shrinking back again as temperatures rise in the spring and summer, with the minima occurring usually in September. [...] Project coordinator, Dirk Notz from the University of Hamburg, comments, "We are very surprised by these findings. Even if we reduce emissions substantially, keeping global warming levels below 2°C, Arctic sea ice will nevertheless disappear occasionally in summers before 2050."
Claim: Arctic sea ice is not melting and there is no indication that we should expect the Arctic sea summer ice to disappear completely, as predicted (Allan Astrup Jensen, 2024-02-06)
Evidence (2023-07-27): Since the beginning of satellite observations in 1979, Arctic sea ice coverage and volume in summer has decreased by approximately 50% and 70%, respectively, making it one of the most alarming signs of climate change1,2,3,4,5,6,7. To cope with the impacts of the shrinking area of sea ice, such as more freshwater storage, more frequent extreme weather events in the mid-latitudes, and changes to global shipping and trade passages8,9,10,11, adaptation and mitigation planning are based on credible projections of Arctic sea ice. Climate models collected in model inter-comparisons play a central role in formulating various management strategies. These strategies are based on probabilistic predictions about the outcomes of interest under different forcing scenarios, which are provided by simulations from carefully constructed model ensembles. However, models feature diverging projections of Arctic sea ice4,12,13,14,15,16,17,18, mainly because of model differences, such as different model responses to the same external forcing19. Some models might be biased in the same way when sharing portions of code, input datasets, or even the expertise of those developing the model, which could cause the multi-model mean to be biased low or high. [...] Mahlstein, I. & Knutti, R. September Arctic sea ice predicted to disappear near 2 °C global warming above present. J. Geophys. Res.117, D06104 (2012).
Claim: Arctic sea ice is not melting and there is no indication that we should expect the Arctic sea summer ice to disappear completely, as predicted (Allan Astrup Jensen, 2024-02-06)
Evidence (2024-02-20): CLIMATEWIRE | The Arctic could see ice-free summers as early as the 2030s, scientists say. That’s as much as a decade earlier than previous studies have suggested. [...] The researchers then compared these observations with computer model simulations of Arctic sea ice declines over the same period. The use of simulations allowed the scientists to investigate the influences of individual factors including greenhouse gas emissions, other forms of air pollution and natural climate cycles on Arctic melting. [...] Still, scientists warn that the planet is likely to experience stronger climate consequences as Arctic sea ice dwindles. Bright, shiny sea ice helps reflect sunlight away from the planet. As it disappears, the Arctic warms even faster.
Claim: Arctic sea ice is not melting and there is no indication that we should expect the Arctic sea summer ice to disappear completely, as predicted (Allan Astrup Jensen, 2024-02-06)
Evidence (2024-05-10): J. C. Comiso, A. C. Bliss, R. Gersten, C. L. Parkinson, and T. Markus Background The sea ice cover is one of the key components of the polar climate system. It has been a focus of attention in recent years, largely because of a strong decrease in the Arctic sea ice cover and modeling results that indicate that global warming is amplified in the Arctic on account of ice-albedo feedback. This results from the high reflectivity (albedo) of the sea ice compared to ice-free waters. A satellite-based data record starting in late 1978 shows that indeed rapid changes have been occurring in the Arctic, where the ice coverage has been declining at a substantial rate. In contrast, in the Antarctic the sea ice coverage has been increasing although at a lesser rate than the decreases in the Arctic. Shown below are up-to-date satellite observations of the sea ice covers of both the Arctic and the Antarctic, along with comparisons with the historical satellite record of more than 4 decades.
Claim: Arctic sea ice is not melting and there is no indication that we should expect the Arctic sea summer ice to disappear completely, as predicted (Allan Astrup Jensen, 2024-02-06)
Evidence (2024-03-07): The title of The Epoch Times article falsely claims that ‘the UN Says Melting Arctic Ice Is Key Indicator of Climate Change—But It’s Not Melting’. This statement is inaccurate, as scientific evidence consistently shows that Arctic sea ice is indeed melting and serves as a critical indicator of climate change. Arctic sea ice grows and shrinks with the seasons, melting from around March to September and reforming in the cold winter months. Scientists study the yearly minimum extent of Arctic sea ice because it provides critical insights into its seasonal cycle and its response to environmental changes. This measurement, taken at the end of the summer melting season, indicates the quantity of sea ice remaining. [...] The Epoch Times article quotes a report by Allan Astrup Jensen, a chemical risk assessment specialist, claiming that "in the last 17 years, from 2007 to 2023, the [Arctic sea ice extent] downward trend has also been about zero […] Therefore, there is no indication that we should expect the Arctic Sea summer ice to disappear completely, as predicted, in one or two decades."
Claim: Arctic sea ice is not melting and there is no indication that we should expect the Arctic sea summer ice to disappear completely, as predicted (Allan Astrup Jensen, 2024-02-06)
Evidence (2024-02-19): UN Says Melting Arctic Ice is a Key Indicator of Climate Change—But It's Not Melting "Questioning the data. [...] The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) uses NSIDC data to record Arctic sea ice yearly minimums in September, at the end of the summer melt season. The measurement is based on sea ice extent, which is the square mileage of ice covering the Arctic Ocean during a specified time. [...] "The sharp decrease in Arctic Sea ice extent before 2007, when the Nobel Prize was delivered to IPCC and Al Gore, was supposed to continue forever. In that light, the predictions were fair," he said.