copenlu/druid huggingface dataset:
Claim: COVID-19 vaccines “are killing millions” (Sean Adl-Tabatabai, 2024-05-31)
Evidence (2023-02-15): At the end of December 2019, the World Health Organization country office in China was notified of several cases of pneumonia of unknown etiology. These were the first cases of COVID-19. In the three years since, COVID-19 has killed more than 7.3 million people worldwide, including more than one million people in the United States, 800,000 in Russia, 690,000 in Brazil, and 530,000 in India. These tallies could substantially underestimate COVID-19's true death toll. In fact, some estimates suggest the total number of deaths could be more than two times as large as reported globally—nearly eighteen million deaths—and more than ten times greater than reported in some countries. The scale of loss is staggering, but the huge numbers are difficult to understand without context. It can be helpful to consider how COVID-19 ranks as a cause of death around the world, and the factors driving those trends. [...] More people in the United States died of COVID-19 than in any other country (1.1 million). Although this is in part due to the large U.S. population, the country also has a high death rate due to COVID-19. Incredibly, 114,000 more Americans died of COVID-19 in 2021 compared to 2020, despite the federal government purchasing over a billion doses of mRNA vaccine, enough to cover its population several times over. More people in the United States died of COVID-19 than died of seasonal influenza in the last ten years (2010-2020) and COVID-19 is the deadliest disease in U.S. history, surpassing the 1918 influenza pandemic which killed an estimated 675,000 Americans.
Claim: the U.S. is shattering high temperature records far more frequently than it is shattering low temperature records (Chris Mooney, 2016-07-24)
Evidence (2016-07-24): Because of human-caused global warming, heat waves in the U.S. are becoming more common and the hottest heat waves are getting hotter. Weather is naturally variable, but the trend of warming temperatures means that local record highs are set more often, and record lows less often.
Claim: the U.S. is shattering high temperature records far more frequently than it is shattering low temperature records (Chris Mooney, 2016-07-24)
Evidence (2022-09-13): More than 7,000 daily temperature records across the United States were broken this summer, a Washington Post analysis of data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration revealed. In the third-hottest summer on record, more than 400 monthly records and 27 all-time records also fell. Daily temperature records, meaning the highest temperature ever recorded at a particular station on a particular calendar date, are broken more frequently than monthly records, which indicate the highest temperature ever recorded during a whole month. Breaking all-time records — the hottest temperature recorded at a station in its entire history — is even rarer. [...] Over the past two decades of summers, far more record highs have been broken than record lows. This summer, more than three times as many high records were broken than low ones.
Claim: the U.S. is shattering high temperature records far more frequently than it is shattering low temperature records (Chris Mooney, 2016-07-24)
Evidence (2021-10-05): The above calculations show that the approximately linear global warming trend of ~0.2 °C/decade results in a nonlinear increase in the number of the highest threshold-exceeding extreme events. For example, after a 1-sigma shift of a Gaussian distribution function, what used to be a 2-sigma extreme becomes 4.5 times more likely, while what used to be a 5-sigma extreme becomes 90 times more likely. (see15,16). Meanwhile, the increase of record-breaking extremes over those expected in a stationary climate scales approximately linearly with the trend14. Figure 1b plots the global-land mean evolution of the ratio of observed local monthly temperature records compared to those expected in a stationary climate. The latter scales with 1/n, with n the year of the observation. In relatively good agreement with our projections in 2012, the number of observed record-breaking monthly temperatures has now risen to 8 times those expected in a climate without long-term warming (Fig. 1b). Note that this is much less than the 1000-fold increase in 4-sigma events because the bar for each new record is raised by the previous record.
Claim: the U.S. is shattering high temperature records far more frequently than it is shattering low temperature records (Chris Mooney, 2016-07-24)
Evidence (2021-07-26): Even more week-long, "record-shattering" heatwaves are coming for us. From now until 2050, if greenhouse gas emissions stay high, the odds of such heatwaves happening are two to seven times greater than they were over the past few decades, according to a new study. From 2051 to 2080, those prolonged, record-breaking events are expected to become three to 21 times more probable than they were in the past. The authors of the new study, published today in the journal Nature Climate Change, used climate models to come to their conclusions. But there’s already plenty of evidence in the world around us that backs up this study and others that link climate change to more frequent and severe heatwaves. Yet another heat dome is stifling much of the US this week. That comes after a string of extreme heat events have already smashed hundreds of temperature records across the US this year. [...] While the June 28th temperature record may not be the norm, city planners might want to heed advice from the authors of the new study and prepare for similar situations in the future. "The main message is that we need to prepare for more record heat events in the coming decades that shatter previous record temperatures by large margins," lead author Erich Fischer said in an email to Axios.
Claim: the U.S. is shattering high temperature records far more frequently than it is shattering low temperature records (Chris Mooney, 2016-07-24)
Evidence (2022-07-18): Hot-temperature records are far outpacing cool records across the globe this year as Europe and the United States brace again for dangerous heat waves. In the US, 92 all-time record high temperatures had been set through July 16, compared with only five all-time record low temperatures, according to data from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Globally, 188 all-time heat records were broken versus 18 cool records. [...] And in the US, more than 40 million people were under heat warnings and advisories on Monday from North Dakota to Texas, where high temperatures were expected to climb into the 90s and 100s. Dozens of temperature records could be broken through the week, forecasters warned.
Claim: the U.S. is shattering high temperature records far more frequently than it is shattering low temperature records (Chris Mooney, 2016-07-24)
Evidence (2023-07-19): More than 20 daily high records were broken or tied in the US on Tuesday [...] There are 75 potential high temperature records that could be tied or broken through Saturday, and there could be more than 95 record high minimum temperature records broken through Saturday. [...] Heat: More than 70 million people are under heat alerts from Florida to California. There have been more than 1,800 record high temperatures in the US so far this month and more than 26,000 record high temperatures in the US this year, per the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. There are more than 170 potential temperature records (both high and low temperature records) that could be broken through Saturday.
Claim: the U.S. is shattering high temperature records far more frequently than it is shattering low temperature records (Chris Mooney, 2016-07-24)
Evidence (2017-01-10): In the United States, the most recent decade (2000-2010) was the nation’s warmest on record. Record-breaking high temperatures are now outnumbering record lows by an average decadal ratio of 2:1. Record highs are occurring more often than record lows due to climate change. [...] Looking ahead, under a moderate rising emissions scenario, the ratio of record high maximum to record low minimum temperatures in the US is projected to continue to increase, with ratios of about 20 to 1 by mid-century and roughly 50 to 1 by the end of the century. Resources - Recent U.S. temperature trends, NCA - Record highs vs. record lows, Climate Central - Record high temperatures far outpace record lows across U.S., UCAR - High and low temperature indicator, US EPA
Claim: the U.S. is shattering high temperature records far more frequently than it is shattering low temperature records (Chris Mooney, 2016-07-24)
Evidence (2016-07-21): The United States is witnessing a massive, dangerous heat wave, as a huge system of high pressure covers the central part of the country. It’s a big enough deal that yesterday President Obama even tweeted about it, including a map showing the maximum heat index in some parts of the Midwest and Southeast reaching 110 or 115 degrees on Saturday. [...] This will, inevitably, lead to much talk of climate change in the coming days. So it’s important to separate the scientific wheat from the chaff and figure out what science can, and can’t, reliably say about the link between an event like this and a warming planet — especially in a year that, on a global scale, has shattered past temperature records for six out of the last six months. [...] And we’ve definitely already had changes in not only "long-term mean conditions," but in heat waves themselves. The U.S. National Climate Assessment found that U.S. heat waves have already "become more frequent and intense," that the U.S. is shattering high temperature records far more frequently than it is shattering low temperature records (just as you’d expect), and that it is seeing correspondingly fewer cold spells.
Claim: the U.S. is shattering high temperature records far more frequently than it is shattering low temperature records (Chris Mooney, 2016-07-24)
Evidence (2019-06-27): CLAIM: The U.S. National Climate Assessment found that U.S. heat waves have already 'become more frequent and intense,' that the U.S. is shattering high temperature records far more frequently than it is shattering low temperature records (just as you’d expect), and that it is seeing correspondingly fewer cold spells. [...] This is true and is also consistent with findings from other areas of the world. For example, Dr Sophie Lewis led work* that showed in Australia there have been 12 times as many hot records compared to cold records since 2000. - Lewis and King (2015) Dramatically increased rate of observed hot record breaking in recent Australian temperatures, Geophysical Research Letters
Claim: the U.S. is shattering high temperature records far more frequently than it is shattering low temperature records (Chris Mooney, 2016-07-24)
Evidence (2024-01-12): Scientists explain why the record-shattering 2023 heat has them on edge. Warming may be worsening [...] The Associated Press asked more than three dozen scientists in interviews and emails what the smashed records mean. Most said they fear acceleration of climate change that is already right at the edge of the 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit) increase since pre-industrial times that nations had hoped to stay within. [...] Both NASA and NOAA said the last 10 years, from 2014 to 2023, have been the 10 hottest years they’ve measured. It’s the third time in the last eight years that a global heat record was set. Randall Cerveny, an Arizona State University scientist who helps coordinate record-keeping for the WMO, said the big worry isn’t that a record was broken last year, but that they keep getting broken so frequently.
Claim: the U.S. is shattering high temperature records far more frequently than it is shattering low temperature records (Chris Mooney, 2016-07-24)
Evidence (2023-07-08): What’s remarkable is the sheer variety and intensity of the anomalies in recent weeks, which is itself an unprecedented clustering. There’s actually an interrelationship among all these records because oceanic warmth is such a crucial driver of atmospheric warmth. Close to 90% of the energy trapped by added greenhouse gases is stored in the global ocean, so it only takes a minor shift in ocean storage to have huge consequences on the adjacent atmosphere. The global storehouse of oceanic heat measured to depths of 2,000 meters (6,600 feet) has hit record highs almost every year since 2000, and it did so again in 2022. [...] Jet-stream weirdness — not well understood, but with some links to human-caused climate change — has been a key facet of Northern Hemisphere weather and climate in recent weeks. Intense high pressure developed over Canada in late spring, leading to record summerlike heat in May and June, parching the landscape, and laying the foundation for massive wildfires from Alberta to Quebec and recurrent smoke plumes flowing into the United States. As the main polar jet stream arced far to the north around the Canadian high, a subtropical branch kept June largely mild over much of the central and eastern U.S., with widespread and frequent hailstorms. In contrast to much of the world, New York, Los Angeles, and Washington, D.C., all had unusually cool Junes. Meanwhile, the subtropical zone from northern Mexico to Texas and parts of the Gulf Coast suffered in record-melting heat, with extreme moisture pushing heat indices above 115°F in some areas.
Claim: the U.S. is shattering high temperature records far more frequently than it is shattering low temperature records (Chris Mooney, 2016-07-24)
Evidence (2024-07-11): 'We're screaming into the void.' Across the U.S., heat keeps breaking records [...] Last year was the hottest year on record for the world. The U.S. is warming up at a faster rate than the global average, which means the effects of global warming will be more pronounced. [...] "We're going to continue [breaking temperature records] as long as we keep increasing the amount of greenhouse gases in our atmosphere," Russell says.
Claim: the U.S. is shattering high temperature records far more frequently than it is shattering low temperature records (Chris Mooney, 2016-07-24)
Evidence (2024-07-06): Temperature records are shattered as extreme heat grips the West and East coasts [...] Several locations in Oregon shattered records by more than 5 degrees, topping out at 112 degrees in Medford, breaking the previous high of 104 set in 1922. [...] Kingman, Ariz., broke its daily high temperature record by 1 degree at 109 degrees. Death Valley, Calif., also broke its daily record by 1 degree with a reading of 128, 2 degrees below its all-time high of 130. And Las Vegas tied its daily high of 115 degrees.
Claim: the U.S. is shattering high temperature records far more frequently than it is shattering low temperature records (Chris Mooney, 2016-07-24)
Evidence (2024-07-09): Death Valley hit 125 degrees Fahrenheit (51.7 Celsius) or higher for nine consecutive days in early July. Las Vegas broke its all-time heat record at 120 F (48.9 C). Days of 100-degree heat dried out the California landscapes, fueling wildfires there and in the Northwest. Oregon reported several suspected heat deaths. [...] A scientific assessment of the fierce heat wave in the eastern U.S. in June 2024 estimates that heat so severe and long-lasting was two to four times more likely to occur today because of human-caused climate change than it would have been without it. This conclusion is consistent with the rapid increase over the past several decades in the number of U.S. heat waves and their occurrence outside the peak of summer. These record heat waves are happening in a climate that’s globally more than 2.2 F (1.2 C) warmer – when looking at the 30-year average – than it was before the industrial revolution, when humans began releasing large amounts of greenhouse gas emissions that warm the climate.
Claim: the U.S. is shattering high temperature records far more frequently than it is shattering low temperature records (Chris Mooney, 2016-07-24)
Evidence (2024-06-06): Climate records keep getting shattered. Here is what you need to know [...] WHAT DO THE SHATTERED RECORDS MEAN FOR HUMANS? [...] "Until greenhouse gas concentrations level off, we will keep breaking temperature records, along with increasingly frequent and intense extreme weather events," said Francis.
Claim: the U.S. is shattering high temperature records far more frequently than it is shattering low temperature records (Chris Mooney, 2016-07-24)
Evidence (2024-02-20): Temperature records have been shattering left and right as searing, unrelenting heat has enveloped numerous spots around the planet—from Phoenix, Ariz., to Sanbao, China, where it is summer, to southern South America, where it is winter. Breaking high-temperature records is a hallmark of climate change. With more and more heat being trapped in the atmosphere by the greenhouse gases emitted when humans burn fossil fuels, heat records are now set increasingly more often than cold ones. [...] Climate change leads to longer, stronger and more frequent heat waves. A recent study from the World Weather Attribution group found that some of this summer’s record-setting heat waves would have been "virtually impossible" without climate change. A hot summer of the past is an average one today, and the current hot summers will be considered pretty average in the future.
Claim: the U.S. is shattering high temperature records far more frequently than it is shattering low temperature records (Chris Mooney, 2016-07-24)
Evidence (2021-10-27): Ayesha Tandon 07.26.21Ayesha Tandon 26.07.2021 | 4:00pm"Record-shattering" extremes – which break weather records by large margins – will become more likely as a result of climate change, a new study finds. [...] The study finds that record-shattering extreme events are likely to occur more frequently in the coming decades, but notes that they would be "nearly impossible" without climate change. It adds that the speed of warming is more important than the level of warming reached when determining the likelihood of these extremes. [...] As record-shattering extremes are more common in the northern mid-latitudes, the authors calculate the annual probability of at least one record-shattering event happening per year in large landmasses in the northern mid-latitudes. They determine these values for the recent past of 1991-2020 (dark blue), 2021-50 (red) and 2051-80 (light blue). The results are shown below.
Claim: the U.S. is shattering high temperature records far more frequently than it is shattering low temperature records (Chris Mooney, 2016-07-24)
Evidence (2024-08-27): In this era of rapid human-caused climate change, the setting of new regional and national temperature records during heatwaves happens so frequently that it can sometimes feel commonplace. [...] Other record-shattering heat events from recent years include a year-long marine heatwave in the north Atlantic Ocean beginning in March 2023, when sea surface temperatures were up to 5C hotter than normal. [...] The research found that, under the scenario of very high greenhouse gas emissions, week-long heat events that break records by three or more standard deviations will be come between two and seven times more likely in the period 2021-50 and three-to-21 times more likely in the period 2051-80, when compared to the past three decades.
Claim: the U.S. is shattering high temperature records far more frequently than it is shattering low temperature records (Chris Mooney, 2016-07-24)
Evidence (2024-07-07): Roughly 130 million people were under threat over the weekend and into next week from a long-running heat wave that broke or tied records with dangerously high temperatures and is expected to shatter more from East Coast to West Coast, forecasters said. Ukiah, north of San Francisco, hit 117 degrees Fahrenheit (47 degrees Celsius) on Saturday, breaking the city's record for the date and tying its all-time high. Livermore, east of San Francisco, hit 111 F (43.8 C), breaking the daily maximum temperature record of 109 F (42.7 C) set more than a century ago in 1905. [...] Heat records shattered across the Southwest
Claim: the U.S. is shattering high temperature records far more frequently than it is shattering low temperature records (Chris Mooney, 2016-07-24)
Evidence (2021-06-30): One of, if not the, worst heat wave in the region’s modern records impacted the Pacific Northwest of the United States and western Canada during late June 2021, not just breaking records but smashing them over an incredibly hot four-day period. And unlike the heat wave across the Southwest United States in mid-June, this time the dangerous heat was felt across a region not known for such extremes. A week after a heatwave broke records across the Southwest and northern Mountain West, a second, even more anomalous, heatwave occurred across the Pacific Northwest and Western Canada. It sent records toppling. Over a four-day period, June 26-29, daytime high temperatures skyrocketed to well over 100 degrees Fahrenheit, setting all-time records at dozens of locations. [...] And finally, while there has not been an attribution study yet on this heat wave, climate change likely had an influence as well. As noted in the article on the previous record temperatures, heatwaves across the contiguous United States have occurred more often and lasted longer since the 1960s. According to NOAA’s Climate Extremes Index, the percent area of the Pacific Northwest that has experienced summertime extreme temperatures has drastically increased over the last twenty years. For the first 90 years of the record, an extreme heat footprint of larger than 50% of the area happened only three times. In the past 20 years, it has happened six times.
Claim: the U.S. is shattering high temperature records far more frequently than it is shattering low temperature records (Chris Mooney, 2016-07-24)
Evidence (2024-01-09): September 2023 was the month with a temperature deviation above the 1991–2020 average larger than any month in the ERA5 dataset - [...] Surface air temperatures broke several records globally in 2023 [...] This does not mean that we have surpassed the limits set by the Paris Agreement (as they refer to periods of at least 20 years where this average temperature anomaly is exceeded) but sets a dire precedent.
Claim: the U.S. is shattering high temperature records far more frequently than it is shattering low temperature records (Chris Mooney, 2016-07-24)
Evidence (2024-06-17): A record-breaking heat wave is sending temperatures soaring to dangerous levels in the Northeast and Midwest, but much of the US is suffering through sweltering heat. [...] Hundreds of records could be tied or broken this week. Multiple all-time June high temperature records could fall as the heat rises to levels normally seen only on the hottest July days. Parts of the Midwest to the Northeast could endure the longest heat wave they’ve seen in decades, the National Weather Service’s Weather Prediction Center said. [...] Temperatures soared 15 to 20 degrees above normal Monday afternoon and remained at elevated levels overnight. A few dozen temperature records fell as a result, including daily record highs in Chicago and Cleveland, and daily record warm low temperatures in places like Des Moines, Iowa. Temperatures will rise up to 25 degrees above normal through the rest of the workweek.