copenlu/druid huggingface dataset:
Claim: India remains the world’s fastest growing large economy. (Govt. of India, 2018-05-26)
Evidence (2024-09-03): NEW DELHI, September 3, 2024 — The Indian economy continues to grow at a healthy pace despite challenging global conditions, according to World Bank’s latest India Development Update: India’s Trade Opportunities in a Changing Global Context. But to reach its $1 trillion merchandise exports goal by 2030, India needs to diversify its export basket and leverage global value chains. The India Development Update (IDU) observes that India remained the fastest-growing major economy and grew at a rapid clip of 8.2 percent in FY23/24. Growth was boosted by public infrastructure investment and an upswing in household investments in real estate. On the supply side, it was supported by a buoyant manufacturing sector, which grew by 9.9 percent, and resilient services activity, which compensated for underperformance in agriculture. Reflecting these trends, urban unemployment has improved gradually since the pandemic, especially for female workers. Female urban unemployment fell to 8.5 percent in early FY24/25, although urban youth unemployment remained elevated at 17 percent. With a narrowing of the current account deficit and strong foreign portfolio investment inflows, foreign exchange reserves reached an all-time high of $670.1 billion in early August, equivalent to over 11 months oft cover (in FY23/24 import terms).
Claim: India remains the world’s fastest growing large economy. (Govt. of India, 2018-05-26)
Evidence (2024-04-29): We have raised our regional growth forecast for this year to 4.5 percent, up 0.3 percentage point from six months earlier, after a 5 percent expansion in 2023. The revision reflects upgrades for China, where we expect policy stimulus to provide support, and India, where public investment remains an important driver, making it the world’s fastest-growing major economy. In a still subdued external environment, robust private consumption will remain the main growth driver in Asia’s other emerging market economies. The Asia growth forecast for 2025 is unchanged at 4.3 percent. [...] For Asia’s economies these are unfortunate developments, as many of them are deeply integrated into global supply chains and benefit greatly from trade. Hence policymakers should be cautious to not aggravate trade frictions themselves. For example, we also observe an increasing tendency to implement industrial policy measures. Even though these measures pursue a wide range of objectives, they often include trade-distorting elements. Careful design is needed to avoid unintended side-effects—notably greater fragmentation—and to remain consistent with World Trade Organization rules. Beyond the short term, population aging, slowing productivity growth, and new technologies such as artificial intelligence confront policymakers in Asia with important challenges. While policy responses need to be tailored to country circumstances, there’s a common need to invest in capital, digital infrastructure, and workforce skills, to preserve Asia’s role as growth engine of the world economy.
Claim: India remains the world’s fastest growing large economy. (Govt. of India, 2018-05-26)
Evidence (2024-06-12): Home / Economy / News / India remains world's fastest growing major economy globally: World Bank India remains world's fastest growing major economy globally: World Bank [...] The World Bank on Tuesday (June 11) predicted that India is set to remain the fastest-growing major economy globally, though its growth rate is expected to slow. The June ‘Global Economic Prospects’ report maintained the GDP growth forecast for India at 6.6 per cent for FY25.
Claim: India remains the world’s fastest growing large economy. (Govt. of India, 2018-05-26)
Evidence (2024-01-05): India's economic growth is projected to reach 6.2 per cent in 2024 India remains the fastest-growing large economy and its growth is projected to reach 6.2 per cent in 2024, according to the World Economic Situation and Prospects 2024 report published by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs. [...] Though India's growth is projected to reach 6.2 per cent in 2024, it slightly lower than the 6.3 per cent estimated for 2023. This year's growth will be supported by robust domestic demand and strong growth in the manufacturing and services sectors, the UN report said.
Claim: India remains the world’s fastest growing large economy. (Govt. of India, 2018-05-26)
Evidence (2024-05-01): The $3.4 trillion Indian economy has a lot going for it.4 India is benefitting from multiple mega forces in the form of (1) favorable youthful demographics and (2) rewiring global supply chains amid a fragmenting world. India also stands out amidst a tepid global growth backdrop: its economy is expected to grow by $400 billion per year for the next few years.5 [...] India overtook China as the most populous nation in 2023.6 But not only does it have a large population, it has a young one, too. Approximately 65% of its population is below the age of 35, and half is below the age of 25.7 [...] India’s government introduced production-linked incentives to encourage manufacturers to establish operations there. This initiative drew $6.5 billion in investment in 2022 and has been one cause of a surge of investment in tech, energy and infrastructure.9Additionally, the removal of certain tariffs in 2023 between India and the U.S. has further incentivized bilateral trade and investment, fostering closer economic ties between the two nations.10
Claim: During UPA government’s tenure, the unemployment rate was 2.2% while under NDA government, the unemployment rate is 7.9%. (Indian National Congress Official Twitter, 2019-09-02)
Evidence (2019-09-02): Soon after the GDP growth for quarter-1 of 2019-20 was known to be a poor 5%, the Congress party uploaded an infographic with a bunch of claims on GDP growth, Unemployment rate, Exports growth etc. Here is a fact check of these claims.
Claim: During UPA government’s tenure, the unemployment rate was 2.2% while under NDA government, the unemployment rate is 7.9%. (Indian National Congress Official Twitter, 2019-09-02)
Evidence (2024-02-07): Reacting to the remarks made by the prime minister regarding the Congress-led UPA government, Kharge wrote on X (formerly known as Twitter), "Those who did not believe in the Constitution, who did not participate in the 'Dandi March' and the 'Quit India Movement' have the audacity to today preach patriotism to the Congress party! Modiji said countless false things about the UPA government." [...] The prime minister said countless false things about the UPA government. I want to ask: Catch all the Business News , Breaking News Events and Latest News Updates on Live Mint. Download The Mint News App to get Daily Market Updates.
Claim: During UPA government’s tenure, the unemployment rate was 2.2% while under NDA government, the unemployment rate is 7.9%. (Indian National Congress Official Twitter, 2019-09-02)
Evidence (2024-07-26): - The economy lost 2.7 million jobs. The unemployment rate increased by 1.7 percentage points to 6.4%. [...] - The number of people lacking health insurance rose by 3 million. [...] As we’ve often said, readers may find these statistics to be good, bad or neutral, and opinions differ on how much credit or blame a president should get for what happens while he is in office. We leave those judgments to others.
Claim: During UPA government’s tenure, the unemployment rate was 2.2% while under NDA government, the unemployment rate is 7.9%. (Indian National Congress Official Twitter, 2019-09-02)
Evidence (2024-10-08): At EU level, the long-term unemployment rate was 2.2 % for men and slightly higher at 2.5 % for women. [...] - Unemployment - LFS adjusted series (t_une) [...] - Unemployment - LFS adjusted series (une)
Claim: During UPA government’s tenure, the unemployment rate was 2.2% while under NDA government, the unemployment rate is 7.9%. (Indian National Congress Official Twitter, 2019-09-02)
Evidence (2024-05-05): Surjit Bhalla, former India executive director at International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Sunday claimed that on an average basis, an unprecedented number of jobs are being created under the Narendra Modi government with the number touching about 10 million over the last 7-8 years, according to a report by PTI. He further said that the least number of jobs were created during the UPA government period from 2004 to 2013 and It was then that the term ‘jobless growth’ came about. [...] Bhalla, a former member of the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM), claimed that the maximum number of jobs were created during the tenure of Atal Bihari Vajpayee and PM Modi.
Claim: During UPA government’s tenure, the unemployment rate was 2.2% while under NDA government, the unemployment rate is 7.9%. (Indian National Congress Official Twitter, 2019-09-02)
Evidence (2022-10-11): Also, studies have examined the importance of institution of government in achieving any of the welfare objectives with findings suggesting that the performance of government institution determines the development of an economy (Kim et al., 2018; Hall and Ahmad, 2012; Slesman et al., 2015; Acemoglu and Robinson, 2008). Hence, government performance determines the outcome for any development issues like unemployment. [...] 3.2 Data and sources [...] Choudhry, M.T., Marelli, E. and Signorelli, M. (2012), "Youth unemployment rate and impact of financial crises", International Journal of Manpower, Vol. 33 No. 1, pp. 76-95.
Claim: During UPA government’s tenure, the unemployment rate was 2.2% while under NDA government, the unemployment rate is 7.9%. (Indian National Congress Official Twitter, 2019-09-02)
Evidence (2023-06-28): Unemployment rate 7.2 7.4 6.8 6.8 7.0 [...] Unemployment rate 3.2 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.5 [...] Unemployment rate 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.9 [1] This category includes people with a high school diploma or equivalent.
Claim: During UPA government’s tenure, the unemployment rate was 2.2% while under NDA government, the unemployment rate is 7.9%. (Indian National Congress Official Twitter, 2019-09-02)
Evidence (2021-12-03): After having recovered to February 2020 levels in October 2021, the unemployment rate among young men aged 15 to 24 increased 1.1 percentage points to 13.0% in November, as more of them searched for work. Among young women, the unemployment rate (7.9%) was on par with its pre-COVID level and little changed for the fourth consecutive month. [...] The unemployment rate also fell among people who were not Indigenous and not a member of a visible minority group, down 0.3 percentage points to 4.7% (population aged 15 to 69; not seasonally adjusted). [...] The unemployment rate is the number of unemployed people as a percentage of the labour force (employed and unemployed).
Claim: During UPA government’s tenure, the unemployment rate was 2.2% while under NDA government, the unemployment rate is 7.9%. (Indian National Congress Official Twitter, 2019-09-02)
Evidence (2024-01-01): Unemployment leads to several adverse effects including increased mental health issues, crime rates, and economic challenges like inflation. [...] When evaluating the unemployment rates of countries in comparison with one another, it is vital to keep in mind that it is not always an apples-to-apples comparison. For starters, not every country has the same definition of unemployment—for instance, some countries say that if a person is able to work but not currently employed, that person is unemployed. But other countries only consider a person unemployed if they are actively seeking work. People who are not working and not looking for work are not considered unemployed. Obviously, these different definitions will have an impact on the unemployment rates posted by those countries. [...] Unemployment has many adverse effects, including: increased depression and other mental health problems, increased crime rates, overall lower economic productivity and consumption, lower rates of volunteerism, and erosion of skills. Surprisingly, exceptionally low unemployment can also create economic challenges, such as excessive inflation (when everyone is employed and has money to spend, demand for products can outstrip supply, which causes a rise in prices). This can lead to a rising cost of living, which can be particularly hard on citizens in developing and/or low-income countries.
Claim: During UPA government’s tenure, the unemployment rate was 2.2% while under NDA government, the unemployment rate is 7.9%. (Indian National Congress Official Twitter, 2019-09-02)
Evidence (2014-01-03): Data for each indicator was sourced from national and international databases, including the World Bank, the IMF, and national statistical agencies, such as the CMIE. The comparison spans two regimes: UPA's (starting in 2004) and NDA's (starting in 2014). Data was captured using either Financial Year (from April 1 to March 31) or Calendar Year (from January 1 to December 31), depending on the availability of data. The regimes were compared based on these indicators' absolute values and rate of change. While insightful, it's imperative to note that these indicators are influenced by various factors, including global trends and policy changes, and should be interpreted within a broader context. We don't support landscape mode yet. Please go back to portrait mode for the best experience
Claim: During UPA government’s tenure, the unemployment rate was 2.2% while under NDA government, the unemployment rate is 7.9%. (Indian National Congress Official Twitter, 2019-09-02)
Evidence (2024-02-12): Official data on the real economy under the NDA regime has been criticised from several quarters for overestimating its own macroeconomic performance and undervaluing that of the UPA regime. Even then, the simple truth which is evident from the official data is that on average, real GDP growth was at least one percentage point higher during the UPA decade than that of the NDA (See Table 2). Not only did the deep slump following the pandemic and lockdown cause major disruption during NDA-II, but slowdown in the economy was already evident under NDA-I after the successive policy shocks of demonetisation and GST rollout. The UPA era had also witnessed the global financial crisis and consequent worldwide recession in 2008-09, which was also a major external shock. [...] UPA’s growth record, although higher than NDA’s in magnitude, had three major problem areas, which the Finance Ministry’s "White Paper" has highlighted. What is missing though is an honest appraisal of how far the NDA regime has been able to address and resolve them. [...] The NDA government often cites the annual Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) findings to claim a reduction in the unemployment rate between 2017-18 and 2022-23. However, comparable estimates from the NSS 68th round on Employment and Unemployment Situation in India, shows that unemployment rates, estimated by both current weekly status and adjusted usual status, grew very sharply between 2011-12 to 2017-18.
Claim: During UPA government’s tenure, the unemployment rate was 2.2% while under NDA government, the unemployment rate is 7.9%. (Indian National Congress Official Twitter, 2019-09-02)
Evidence (2024-04-29): Assessing the comparative efficacy of the UPA and NDA administrations presents a formidable challenge, chiefly owing to the disparate challenges each encountered. The UPA grappled with the tumultuous fallout of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, while the NDA navigated the unprecedented complexities brought forth by a once-in-a-century pandemic. Each crisis precipitated unique ramifications, and the efficacy of national responses was contingent upon the intricacies and dimensions of the respective economic landscapes. [...] The array of facts presented unequivocally paints a damning portrait of the NDA's abysmal performance in contrast to that of the UPA.
Claim: During UPA government’s tenure, the unemployment rate was 2.2% while under NDA government, the unemployment rate is 7.9%. (Indian National Congress Official Twitter, 2019-09-02)
Evidence (2019-02-25): The employment-unemployment data released by Labour bureau (EUS 2015) has put the rate of unemployment at 5%. Independent estimates also suggested that 2013-15 period saw the total employment shrinking by 70 lakhs heralding a new job loss growth under Modi. The most recent BSE-CMIE data suggested that the rate of unemployment stood at 5.7% in June 2018 and the December data puts it at 7.02%. The GDP estimates also recorded a significant deceleration from 7.5% in July-September 2017 to 5.7% in April-June 2018. The Niti Ayog Vice Chairperson Rajiv Kumar’s rejection of the job data was grounded on his optimism from the high growth rates. But all the window dressing got exposed after the resignation of the acting Chairperson and another member of the National Statistical Commission (NSC) opposing the government decision to delay the findings of the NSSO EUS which was finalised and ready for publishing way back in December 2018. This data that leaked out subsequently in the public domain showed alarmingly higher levels of unemployment. According to this, the country’s unemployment rate stood at over a four-decade high of 6.1% during 2017-18, compared to 2.2% in 2011-12 (see table 1.1) by the usual status approach. [...] 2.2 Lower allocations to MGNREGS
Claim: During UPA government’s tenure, the unemployment rate was 2.2% while under NDA government, the unemployment rate is 7.9%. (Indian National Congress Official Twitter, 2019-09-02)
Evidence (2021-09-29): Compared to this, we now see the inflation scenario during NDA (Modi Government) era. As per CPI measure, inflation has remained lower at 5.11% while it was 7.57% under UPA. We then we compare the GDP deflator figures, which we find from our calculation to be equal to 3.19%. The main reason for this low inflation for the entire seven years was the period of demonetization as during the demonetization period, the inflation rate was very low, just 1% during 2016 and 2.8% during 2017. Since this inflation rate was slightly lower than US inflation rate of 2% for the entire two years, rupee became slightly stronger. The principles of economics are working. But after March 2018, the weakness of lower inflation became visible to international investors and rupee sharply depreciated. [...] Internationally also, Dr. Manmohan Singh Government had performed much better when compared to the Modi Government in attracting economic investments. Even though the Modi Government has altered the domestic calculation index for GDP and Inflation to show a better picture, international figures are completely reliable as they can not be manipulated by the domestic governments since exchange rates are traded daily. India has seen better economic performance and perception during the Manmohan Singh Government in almost all aspects when compared to the Modi Government. - https://www.indiabudget.gov.in/economicsurvey/doc/Statistical-Appendix-in-English.pdf - https://tradingeconomics.com/india/inflation-cpi - https://www.google.com/search?q=exchange+rate+dollar+to+rupee&rlz=1C1CHBF_enUS834US834&sxsrf=AOaemvJLApHUnQXmNy2x8hIJKIVq464nYg%3A1631641979141&ei=e-FAYcrwB4jm_QaBobLwDQ&oq=exchange+rate+dollar&gs_lcp=Cgdnd3Mtd2l6EAEYATIFCAAQgAQyCwgAEIAEELEDEIMBMgoIABCABBCHAhAUMgoIABCABBCHAhAUMgUIABCABDIGCAAQBxAeMgUIABCABDIFCAAQgAQyBQgAEIAEMgUIABCABDoHCAAQRxCwAzoHCCMQsAIQJzoICAAQCBAHEB46BggAEAgQHjoECAAQDToJCAAQDRBGEIICSgQIQRgAUIv4AljokQNguLADaAFwAngAgAG2AYgBsQ6SAQQxLjEymAEAoAEByAEIwAEB&sclient=gws-wiz
Claim: During UPA government’s tenure, the unemployment rate was 2.2% while under NDA government, the unemployment rate is 7.9%. (Indian National Congress Official Twitter, 2019-09-02)
Evidence (2016-06-07): Edited by Shambhavi Singh, Senior Editor, The Indian Economist In this article I will discuss the economic reforms brought about by the UPA Government during the last decade, their consequences, and the take of economists like Jagdish Bhagwati, Amartya Sen and Swaminathan Aiyar on such reforms. [...] 5. Also, there is a case of sluggish employment. Even though there was unprecedented and impressive growth of economy, the employment grew only 2.2% per year.
Claim: During UPA government’s tenure, the unemployment rate was 2.2% while under NDA government, the unemployment rate is 7.9%. (Indian National Congress Official Twitter, 2019-09-02)
Evidence (2019-09-06): Fact: As per quinquennial (recurring every 5 years) NSSO surveys on employment & unemployment, the unemployment rate during the UPA was around 2.2%. The unemployment rate during the NDA as per the PLFS 2017-18 was 6.1%. The figure of 7.9% is based on the survey of a Mumbai based private organization. Hence the claim is PARTLY TRUE. According to a Mumbai based organisation, Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy, in June 2019, the unemployment rate in India had reached 7.9%. The report has further added that the rate of labour participation has also declined. According to the report, labour participation rate is the proportion of working age population comprising of those above the age of 15 years, that is actively looking for a job, be it employed or unemployed. Unemployment rate has been calculated as the proportion of labour force that is not employed. The sample size used is 5,22, 000. The sampling method has not been mentioned. [...] According to the National Sample Survey Office (68th round), in 2011-12, the unemployment rate stood at 2.2%. This survey was based on 4,56,999 persons spread out across the country selected using appropriate statistical sampling methods. The Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) published in May 2019 states that the unemployment rate in India as of 2017-18 was 6.1%. PLFS was based on 4,33,339 persons across the country. The unemployment rate as per earlier NSSO surveys was 2% in 2009-10 and 2.3% in 2004-05.
Claim: During UPA government’s tenure, the unemployment rate was 2.2% while under NDA government, the unemployment rate is 7.9%. (Indian National Congress Official Twitter, 2019-09-02)
Evidence (2022-03-30): Even the Agriculture was considered risky which provides 50% employment with just 18% GDP share. Employment grew only at a rate of 2.2% annually despite the economic growth. FDI in retail showed the true colors of UPA which put 50 million local traders to strike on roads. They started a campaign with the AAM ADMI slogan in 2003 and brought the same people on to roads to fight for their lives against the government. [...] In ten years of governance of UPA, the economy faced stalling growth, weakening rupee, rising inflation, and growing deficit. The unemployment rate was at a peak high with the rise in graduates in young India. The history remembers the UPA’s governance as corruption. These all resulted in a decrease in foreign investments and declining GDP growth to 5.5% by the end of UPA-2 tenure. UPA-2 created just 15 million jobs in five years with 65% of 1.2 billion were under just 35 years of age. No improvement or policies to train the labor to be skilled. The young India and growing India in Information era hopes were ruined and 2014 started again where it took off from 2004, at least it has better hopes. A decade of young generation was lost.