copenlu/druid huggingface dataset:
Claim: The rate of warming according to the data is much slower than the models used by the IPCC (Myron Ebell, 2018-10-08)
Evidence (2023-03-20): The IPCC finds that there is a more than 50% chance that global temperature rise will reach or surpass 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F) between 2021 and 2040 across studied scenarios, and under a high-emissions pathway, specifically, the world may hit this threshold even sooner — between 2018 and 2037. Global temperature rise in such a carbon-intensive scenario could also increase to 3.3 degrees C to 5.7 degrees C (5.9 degrees F to 10.3 degrees F) by 2100. To put this projected amount of warming into perspective, the last time global temperatures exceeded 2.5 degrees C (4.5 degrees F) above pre-industrial levels was more than 3 million years ago. [...] In pathways that limit warming to 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F) — with no or limited overshoot — for example, global use of coal falls by 95% by 2050, oil declines by about 60% and gas by about 45%. These figures assume significant use of abatement technologies like CCS, and without them, these same pathways show much steeper declines by mid-century. Global use of coal without CCS, for example, is virtually phased out by 2050.
Claim: The rate of warming according to the data is much slower than the models used by the IPCC (Myron Ebell, 2018-10-08)
Evidence (2022-04-04): GENEVA, Apr 4 – In 2010-2019 average annual global greenhouse gas emissions were at their highest levels in human history, but the rate of growth has slowed. Without immediate and deep emissions reductions across all sectors, limiting global warming to 1.5°C is beyond reach. However, there is increasing evidence of climate action, said scientists in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report released today. [...] Global Warming of 1.5°C, an IPCC special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7°F) above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty was launched in October 2018.
Claim: The rate of warming according to the data is much slower than the models used by the IPCC (Myron Ebell, 2018-10-08)
Evidence (2023-12-01): Each method can offer a slightly different estimate of current warming, depending on which data, algorithms and assumptions are used. Nonetheless, there is broad agreement on some things, such as that warming in 2022 was about 1.24 °C (with an uncertainty range between 1.0 °C and 1.6 °C), and that 1.0 °C warming was exceeded around 2011 or 2012. There have been times when the differences between methods were greater, either because the rate of warming changed rapidly so a linear trend did not represent the long-term change, or because large natural variability led to a difference between the observed warming and the human contribution. For example, there is less agreement on the year in which 0.5 °C of warming was exceeded, put at some time between 1982 and 1988. This demonstrates the potential for confusion on recognizing the crossing of 1.5 °C if a single indicator is not agreed. [...] The IPCC should examine indicators such as ours in depth. If a suitable metric is agreed, a robust and transparent process for calculating and communicating it should be developed. It should make use of well-established sources and practices as far as possible. For example, observations could come from the WMO’s State of the Global Climate report (go.nature.com/3qqngme), and projections or forecasts could use the IPCC’s assessed warming rates8 and the WMO’s decadal forecasts.
Claim: The rate of warming according to the data is much slower than the models used by the IPCC (Myron Ebell, 2018-10-08)
Evidence (2021-08-09): IPCC climate report: Earth is warmer than it’s been in 125,000 years [...] Modern society’s continued dependence on fossil fuels is warming the world at a pace that is unprecedented in the past 2,000 years — and its effects are already apparent as record droughts, wildfires and floods devastate communities worldwide — according to a landmark report from the United Nations on the state of climate science. The assessment from the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) says things are poised to get worse if greenhouse-gas emissions continue, and makes it clear that the future of the planet depends, in large part, on the choices that humanity makes today. [...] IPCC says limiting global warming to 1.5 °C will require drastic action
Claim: The rate of warming according to the data is much slower than the models used by the IPCC (Myron Ebell, 2018-10-08)
Evidence (2012-04-04): B.1. Climate models project robust differences in regional climate characteristics between present-day and global warming of 1.5°C,and between 1.5°C and 2°C. These differences include increases in: mean temperature in most land and ocean regions (high confidence), hot extremes in most inhabited regions (high confidence), heavy precipitation in several regions (medium confidence), and the probability of drought and precipitation deficits in some regions (medium confidence). {3.3} [...] B.2. By 2100, global mean sea level rise is projected to be around 0.1 metre lower with global warming of 1.5°C compared to 2°C (medium confidence). Sea level will continue to rise well beyond 2100 (high confidence), and the magnitude and rate of this rise depend on future emission pathways. A slower rate of sea level rise enables greater opportunities for adaptation in the human and ecological systems of small islands, low-lying coastal areas and deltas (medium confidence). {3.3, 3.4, 3.6} [...] B.2.3. Increasing warming amplifies the exposure of small islands, low-lying coastal areas and deltas to the risks associated with sea level rise for many human and ecological systems, including increased saltwater intrusion, flooding and damage to infrastructure (high confidence). Risks associated with sea level rise are higher at 2°C compared to 1.5°C. The slower rate of sea level rise at global warming of 1.5°C reduces these risks, enabling greater opportunities for adaptation including managing and restoring natural coastal ecosystems and infrastructure reinforcement (medium confidence). (Figure SPM.2) {3.4.5, Box 3.5}
Claim: The rate of warming according to the data is much slower than the models used by the IPCC (Myron Ebell, 2018-10-08)
Evidence (2008-07-15): The IPCC AR6 presents a strong body of scientific evidence that it is unequivocal that humans have caused the earth’s climate to warm, with a likely human contribution of 0.8 to 1.3 degrees Celsius to global mean temperature since the late 1800s. But what does this anthropogenic global warming mean for Atlantic hurricane activity, or global tropical cyclone activity? Here, we address these questions, starting with those conclusions where we have relatively more confidence. The main text of this web page gives more background discussion. "Detectable" change here will refer to a change that is large enough to be clearly distinguishable from the variability due to natural causes. Our main conclusions are: [...] The relatively conservative confidence levels attached to our Atlantic hurricane projections, and the lack of a claim of detectable anthropogenic influence on Atlantic hurricane activity at this time contrasts with the situation for other climate metrics, such as global mean temperature. The IPCC AR6 concludes that it is unequivocal that humans have caused the earth’s climate to warm, with a likely human contribution of 0.8 to 1.3 degrees Celsius to global mean temperature since the late 1800s.
Claim: The rate of warming according to the data is much slower than the models used by the IPCC (Myron Ebell, 2018-10-08)
Evidence (2023-08-22): The global mean water level in the ocean rose by 0.14 inches (3.6 millimeters) per year from 2006–2015, which was 2.5 times the average rate of 0.06 inches (1.4 millimeters) per year throughout most of the twentieth century. By the end of the century, global mean sea level is likely to rise at least one foot (0.3 meters) above 2000 levels, even if greenhouse gas emissions follow a relatively low pathway in coming decades.
Claim: The rate of warming according to the data is much slower than the models used by the IPCC (Myron Ebell, 2018-10-08)
Evidence (2023-03-20): Counterintuitively, using GWP* also indicates that reducing methane emissions would have greater climate benefits than conventionally assumed. To understand this, assume that methane emissions have historically been at a high level and that those methane emissions then start to decrease. Temperatures would soon start to fall as well. This is accurately represented by GWP*, as shown in the figure below. Using GWP-100, on the other hand, to estimate the effect of falling methane emissions would indicate that warming is continuing, just at a slower rate than before. In other words, standard GWP metrics underestimate how much reducing methane emissions would help stabilize the climate.
Claim: The rate of warming according to the data is much slower than the models used by the IPCC (Myron Ebell, 2018-10-08)
Evidence (2007-01-01): Models project that a local annual average warming of larger than 3°C, sustained for millennia, would lead to virtually a complete melting of the Greenland ice sheet with a reulting sea level rise of about 7 m. Projected temperatures over Greenland are generally greater than globally averaged temperatures by a factor of 1.2 to 3.1 for the range of models used in Chapter 11. For a warming over Greenland of 5.5°C, consistent with mid-range stabilisation scenarios (see Figure 26), the Greenland ice sheet is likely to contribute about 3 m in 1,000 years. For a warming of 8°C, the contribution is about 6 m, the ice sheet being largely eliminated. For smaller warmings, the decay of the ice sheet would be substantially slower (see Figure 27).
Claim: The rate of warming according to the data is much slower than the models used by the IPCC (Myron Ebell, 2018-10-08)
Evidence (2010-06-03): Using this ancient evidence, scientists have built a record of Earth’s past climates, or "paleoclimates." The paleoclimate record combined with global models shows past ice ages as well as periods even warmer than today. But the paleoclimate record also reveals that the current climatic warming is occurring much more rapidly than past warming events. [...] Models predict that Earth will warm between 2 and 6 degrees Celsius in the next century. When global warming has happened at various times in the past two million years, it has taken the planet about 5,000 years to warm 5 degrees. The predicted rate of warming for the next century is at least 20 times faster. This rate of change is extremely unusual. [...] Increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and warming temperatures are causing changes in the Earth’s natural carbon cycle that also can feedback on atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. For now, primarily ocean water, and to some extent ecosystems on land, are taking up about half of our fossil fuel and biomass burning emissions. This behavior slows global warming by decreasing the rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide increase, but that trend may not continue. Warmer ocean waters will hold less dissolved carbon, leaving more in the atmosphere.
Claim: The rate of warming according to the data is much slower than the models used by the IPCC (Myron Ebell, 2018-10-08)
Evidence (2012-04-04): Human-induced warming reached approximately 1°C (likely between 0.8°C and 1.2°C) above pre-industrial levels in 2017, increasing at 0.2°C (likely between 0.1°C and 0.3°C) per decade (high confidence). Global warming is defined in this report as an increase in combined surface air and sea surface temperatures averaged over the globe and over a 30-year period. Unless otherwise specified, warming is expressed relative to the period 1850–1900, used as an approximation of pre-industrial temperatures in AR5. For periods shorter than 30 years, warming refers to the estimated average temperature over the 30 years centred on that shorter period, accounting for the impact of any temperature fluctuations or trend within those 30 years. Accordingly, warming from pre- industrial levels to the decade 2006–2015 is assessed to be 0.87°C (likely between 0.75°C and 0.99°C). Since 2000, the estimated level of human-induced warming has been equal to the level of observed warming with a likely range of ±20% accounting for uncertainty due to contributions from solar and volcanic activity over the historical period (high confidence). {1.2.1} Warming greater than the global average has already been experienced in many regions and seasons, with higher average warming over land than over the ocean (high confidence). Most land regions are experiencing greater warming than the global average, while most ocean regions are warming at a slower rate. Depending on the temperature dataset considered, 20–40% of the global human population live in regions that, by the decade 2006–2015, had already experienced warming of more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial in at least one season (medium confidence). {1.2.1, 1.2.2}
Claim: The rate of warming according to the data is much slower than the models used by the IPCC (Myron Ebell, 2018-10-08)
Evidence (2022-04-26): As you can see in the chart above, SAR’s projections ended up being notably lower than observations, warming about 28% more slowly over the period from 1990 to 2016. This was likely due to a combination of two factors: a lower climate sensitivity than found in modern estimates (2.5C vs. 3C) and an overestimate of the radiative forcing of CO2 (4.37 watts per square meter versus 3.7 used in the subsequent IPCC report and still used today). [...] TAR’s headline projection used a simple climate model that was configured to match the average outputs of seven more sophisticated GCMs, as no specific multimodel average was published in TAR and data for individual model runs are not readily available. It has a climate sensitivity of 2.8C per doubling CO2, with a range of 1.5-4.5C. As shown in the chart above, the rate of warming between 1970 and 2016 in the TAR was about 14% lower than what has actually been observed. [...] Global surface air temperatures in CMIP5 models have warmed about 16% faster than observations since 1970. About 40% of this difference is due to air temperatures over the ocean warming faster than sea surface temperatures in the models; blended model fields only show warming 9% faster than observations.
Claim: The rate of warming according to the data is much slower than the models used by the IPCC (Myron Ebell, 2018-10-08)
Evidence (2012-04-04): Risks to natural and human systems are expected to be lower at 1.5°C than at 2°C of global warming (high confidence). This difference is due to the smaller rates and magnitudes of climate change associated with a 1.5°C temperature increase, including lower frequencies and intensities of temperature-related extremes. Lower rates of change enhance the ability of natural and human systems to adapt, with substantial benefits for a wide range of terrestrial, freshwater, wetland, coastal and ocean ecosystems (including coral reefs) (high confidence), as well as food production systems, human health, and tourism (medium confidence), together with energy systems and transportation (low confidence). {3.3.1, 3.4} [...] Existing and restored natural coastal ecosystems may be effective in reducing the adverse impacts of rising sea levels and intensifying storms by protecting coastal and deltaic regions (medium confidence). Natural sedimentation rates are expected to be able to offset the effect of rising sea levels, given the slower rates of sea level rise associated with 1.5°C of warming (medium confidence). Other feedbacks, such as landward migration of wetlands and the adaptation of infrastructure, remain important (medium confidence). {3.4.4.12, 3.4.5.4, 3.4.5.7} [...] - With respect to the ‘Distribution of impacts’ (RFC3) a transition from moderate to high risk is now located between 1.5°C and 2°C of global warming, compared with between 1.6°C and 2.6°C global warming in AR5, owing to new evidence about regionally differentiated risks to food security, water resources, drought, heat exposure and coastal submergence (high confidence). {3.5}
Claim: The rate of warming according to the data is much slower than the models used by the IPCC (Myron Ebell, 2018-10-08)
Evidence (2021-08-09): However, strong and sustained reductions in emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases would limit climate change. While benefits for air quality would come quickly, it could take 20-30 years to see global temperatures stabilize, according to the IPCC Working Group I report, Climate Change 2021: the Physical Science Basis, approved on Friday by 195 member governments of the IPCC, through a virtual approval session that was held over two weeks starting on July 26. [...] The report shows that emissions of greenhouse gases from human activities are responsible for approximately 1.1°C of warming since 1850-1900, and finds that averaged over the next 20 years, global temperature is expected to reach or exceed 1.5°C of warming. This assessment is based on improved observational datasets to assess historical warming, as well progress in scientific understanding of the response of the climate system to human-caused greenhouse gas emissions. "This report is a reality check," said IPCC Working Group I Co-Chair Valérie Masson-Delmotte. "We now have a much clearer picture of the past, present and future climate, which is essential for understanding where we are headed, what can be done, and how we can prepare."
Claim: The rate of warming according to the data is much slower than the models used by the IPCC (Myron Ebell, 2018-10-08)
Evidence (2023-11-21): On the positive side, itâs now clear that many governments are taking concrete steps to mitigate climate change. Climate investments are increasing in both the public and private sectors, and renewable sources of energy are displacing fossil fuels at historic rates in many countries. But progress is much too slow, and by almost any measure the world is falling far short of the 1.5 Â°C goal. Greenhouse-gas emissions are at an all-time high, tropical forests are being chopped down at near-record rates, fossil-fuel subsidies are going up and coal-fired power stations are still being built. [...] At this rate, it could be less than a decade â possibly much sooner â before global warming reaches 1.5 Â°C above pre-industrial levels. Natural variations, such as the current El NiÃ±o warming in the tropical Pacific, can significantly influence temperatures in the short term. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) uses 10- and 20-year rolling averages when it calculates Earthâs surface temperature. This means there can be a long lag between the official IPCC estimate of global warming and the average temperatures in any given year. [...] Of particular interest is methane, which accounts for around 16% of total emissions. Reducing emissions of this powerful greenhouse gas is one of the only ways that nations can slow the rate of warming over the next few decades. Whatâs more, modelling scenarios for 1.5 Â°C used by the IPCC assume that humanity will do exactly that. This also means that temperatures could rise even faster than projected over the next few decades if the world fails to act on methane.
Claim: The rate of warming according to the data is much slower than the models used by the IPCC (Myron Ebell, 2018-10-08)
Evidence (2016-09-01): Key global projections - For every 2°F of warming, models project about a 15% decrease in the extent of annually averaged Arctic sea ice and a 25% decrease in the area covered by Arctic sea ice at the end of summer (September).[3] Note that this decrease does not contribute to sea level rise.
Claim: The rate of warming according to the data is much slower than the models used by the IPCC (Myron Ebell, 2018-10-08)
Evidence (2024-01-18): That extra heat is driving regional and seasonal temperature extremes, reducing snow cover and sea ice, intensifying heavy rainfall, and changing habitat ranges for plants and animals—expanding some and shrinking others. As the map below shows, most land areas have warmed faster than most ocean areas, and the Arctic is warming faster than most other regions. In addition, it's clear that the rate of warming over the past few decades is much faster than the average rate since the start of the 20th century. [...] Though warming has not been uniform across the planet, the upward trend in the globally averaged temperature shows that more areas are warming than cooling. According to NOAA's 2023 Annual Climate Report the combined land and ocean temperature has increased at an average rate of 0.11° Fahrenheit (0.06° Celsius) per decade since 1850, or about 2° F in total. The rate of warming since 1982 is more than three times as fast: 0.36° F (0.20° C) per decade. [...] According to the 2017 U.S. Climate Science Special Report, if yearly emissions continue to increase rapidly, as they have since 2000, models project that by the end of this century, global temperature will be at least 5 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than the 1901-1960 average, and possibly as much as 10.2 degrees warmer. If annual emissions increase more slowly and begin to decline significantly by 2050, models project temperatures would still be at least 2.4 degrees warmer than the first half of the 20th century, and possibly up to 5.9 degrees warmer.
Claim: “There were 144,305 newly reported COVID-19 cases in the United States today. This beats the previous record of 133,819 cases reported on Monday, November 9. This is the 8th day in a row with over 100,000 cases reported.” (Ali Velshi, 2020-11-11)
Evidence (2020-11-11): The U.S. is currently seeing the highest number of new COVID-19 cases since the pandemic started, with more than 140,000 cases reported on 11 November 2020. In order to control the spread of COVID-19, the U.S. CDC urges all Americans to follow public health measures, such as wearing a mask, practicing physical distancing, and maintaining good hand hygiene.
Claim: “There were 144,305 newly reported COVID-19 cases in the United States today. This beats the previous record of 133,819 cases reported on Monday, November 9. This is the 8th day in a row with over 100,000 cases reported.” (Ali Velshi, 2020-11-11)
Evidence (2021-02-04): United States COVID-19 cases and deaths by state : US COVID-19 cases reported to the CDC in the last 7 days, by state/territory - [...] Total Number of COVID-19 Cases in the US Reported to the CDC, by State/Territory Data Sources, References & Notes: Total cases are based on aggregate counts of COVID-19 cases reported by state and territorial jurisdictions to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) since January 29, 2020, with the exception of persons repatriated to the United States from Wuhan, China, and Japan. The numbers are confirmed and probable COVID-19 cases as reported by U.S. states, U.S. territories, New York City, and the District of Columbia from the previous day. *Counts for New York City and New York state are shown separately; data for New York State show total cases and deaths for the State excluding data for NYC. When not available to CDC this is annotated by N/A. Rates are calculated using U.S. Census Bureau, 2919 American Community Survey 1-year estimates and are shown as cases/100,000 people. The map shows total cases per state, new cases in the last 7 days per state, and the rate (cases/100,000) per state. The 7-day moving average of new cases (current day + 6 preceding days / 7) was calculated to smooth expected variations in daily counts. Demographic data for deaths is based on a subset of cases where case-level data is available.