copenlu/druid huggingface dataset:
Claim: Most likely the primary control knob [on climate change] is the ocean waters and this environment that we live in. (Rick Perry, 2017-06-19)
Evidence (2024-08-16): What role do the oceans play in regulating the climate and supporting life on Earth? [...] The oceans are a major component of the climate system. They have played the principal role in the climatic balance that the planet has experienced over the last few thousand years. Their role in regulating climate involves taking up heat and redistributing it across the globe, increasing atmospheric humidity, and buffering (taking up and storing) large quantities of CO2 from the atmosphere. The oceans are by far the largest active carbon reservoir on the planet, storing about 38,000 billion tonnes of carbon. By comparison, this is over 28 times more than the quantity of carbon stored by land vegetation and atmosphere combined. [...] The ocean is also crucial in controlling atmospheric temperatures: without the ocean and its diversity of service provision, Earth’s maximum temperature would exceed 100°C, and the average surface temperature, which is currently around 15°C, would instead be around 50°C. Unfortunately, the excess heat absorbed by the oceans has increased their mean temperature in recent decades and this warming is contributing to the melting of icesheets and glaciers as the oceans redistribute heat towards the poles – and in turn, to sea level rise. (This is detailed further in our explainer on the oceans and climate change.)
Claim: Most likely the primary control knob [on climate change] is the ocean waters and this environment that we live in. (Rick Perry, 2017-06-19)
Evidence (2010-10-14): Makes sense—and in a sense, he’s right. Water vapor is the most important agent behind the greenhouse effect—it has more than twice the warming effect that CO2 does, and water vapor and clouds account for about 75% of the Earth’s greenhouse effect, with CO2 accounting for 20% and the other greenhouse gases and aerosol particulates accounting for the remaining 5%. But despite that, it is changes in CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere that is responsible for changing the climate—in other words, as the research team led by the physicist Andrew Lacis makes clear in the Science paper, CO2 is the principal "control knob" governing the Earth’s temperature. [...] As the Science authors point out, there’s also ample evidence in our own geologic history that changes in CO2 levels in atmosphere—chiefly due to volcanic eruptions—have been a main driver in changes in Earth’s climate. Water vapor levels may amplify the effect of CO2, but it’s CO2 that is the main control knob—and as Lacis and his colleagues write, we’re turning that knob up to 11 thanks to rising manmade carbon emissions: [...] It’s important to note that while CO2 may be climate’s control knob, the metaphor only goes so far. CO2 isn’t the only knob on the climate controls (alterations in land use and deforestation can change the climate as well), and our understanding of exactly how different levels of atmospheric CO2 concentrations will change the climate in the future is still developing. But CO2 is the main show.
Claim: Most likely the primary control knob [on climate change] is the ocean waters and this environment that we live in. (Rick Perry, 2017-06-19)
Evidence (2024-08-16): The world’s oceans form a primary component of the climate system. They contribute to climate regulation by absorbing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and heat. They have absorbed over a quarter of human-caused CO2 and around 90% of the excess heat produced in recent decades. The oceans are by far the largest active carbon reservoir on the planet, storing about 38,000 billion tonnes of carbon. They are also a crucial source of food supply and livelihoods for billions of people. [...] Warmer ocean surface temperatures also affect weather patterns, shifting rainfall and causing some regions to experience flooding while exacerbating drought and wildfire risk in others. The oceans move water around the planet, driving evaporation and precipitation cycles. The warmer surface temperatures increase evaporation, producing more water vapour which feeds rainstorms and blizzards. Research has also linked ‘landfalling droughts’ – droughts that start over oceans and that migrate over months onto land – in the Western United States with weather patterns over the Pacific that are changing in a warming world. [...] Ocean warming disrupts the carbon cycle: for instance, as waters in the high latitudes (close to the poles) warm, the oceans’ solubility power decreases, which reduces the amount of carbon that can be absorbed and eventually sequestered.
Claim: Most likely the primary control knob [on climate change] is the ocean waters and this environment that we live in. (Rick Perry, 2017-06-19)
Evidence (2017-06-19): On Monday, Gavin Schmidt, a top climate scientist at NASA, tweeted that a paper he co-authored in 2010 used an almost identical phrase in its title – "principal control knob" — as the CNBC’s Squawk Box used Monday. But the paper published in Science Magazine warned about the danger of "anthropogenic," or man-made, carbon dioxide continuing "unabated." The paper said that the high rate of atmospheric CO2 increase was "particularly worrisome" and that "the atmospheric CO2 control knob is now being turned faster than at any time in the geological record." [...] Wolf added, "Our oceans absorb millions of tons of carbon dioxide a day, making them dangerously acidic. They’ve also soaked up most of man-made global warming’s excess heat, putting tremendous stress on marine life."
Claim: Most likely the primary control knob [on climate change] is the ocean waters and this environment that we live in. (Rick Perry, 2017-06-19)
Evidence (2017-06-19): By — Matthew Daly, Associated Press Matthew Daly, Associated Press Leave your feedback Share Copy URL https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/energy-secretary-rick-perry-says-carbon-emissions-not-main-driver-climate-change Email Facebook Twitter LinkedIn Pinterest Tumblr Share on Facebook Share on Twitter Energy Secretary Rick Perry says carbon emissions not main driver for climate change Politics Jun 19, 2017 1:32 PM EDT WASHINGTON — Energy Secretary Rick Perry said Monday he does not believe carbon dioxide is a primary contributor to global warming, a statement at odds with mainstream scientific consensus but in line with the head of the Environmental Protection Agency. Asked on CNBC’s "Squawk Box" whether carbon emissions are primarily responsible for climate change, Perry said no, adding that "most likely the primary control knob is the ocean waters and this environment that we live in." Perry’s view is contrary to mainstream climate science, including analyses by NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The EPA under President Donald Trump recently removed a web page that declared "carbon dioxide is the primary greenhouse gas that is contributing to recent climate change."
Claim: Most likely the primary control knob [on climate change] is the ocean waters and this environment that we live in. (Rick Perry, 2017-06-19)
Evidence (2022-02-08): "Carbon dioxide and other non-condensable greenhouse gases act as control knobs for the climate," said Andrew Dessler, a professor of Atmospheric Sciences at Texas A&M University in College Station. "As humans add carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, small changes in climate are amplified by changes in water vapor. This makes carbon dioxide a much more potent greenhouse gas than it would be on a planet without water vapor." Increases in atmospheric water vapor also amplify the global water cycle. They contribute to making wet regions wetter and dry regions drier. The more water vapor that air contains, the more energy it holds. This energy fuels intense storms, particularly over land. This results in more extreme weather events.
Claim: Most likely the primary control knob [on climate change] is the ocean waters and this environment that we live in. (Rick Perry, 2017-06-19)
Evidence (2021-08-09): - Changes to the ocean, including warming, more frequent marine heatwaves, ocean acidification, and reduced oxygen levels have been clearly linked to human influence. These changes affect both ocean ecosystems and the people that rely on them, and they will continue throughout at least the rest of this century.
Claim: Most likely the primary control knob [on climate change] is the ocean waters and this environment that we live in. (Rick Perry, 2017-06-19)
Evidence (2016-01-18): El Niño and La Niña alternately warm and cool large areas of the tropical Pacific—the world’s largest ocean—which significantly influences where and how much it rains there. The primary location of moist, rising air (over the basin’s warmest water) is centered over the central or eastern Pacific during El Niño and over Indonesia and the western Pacific during La Niña. [...] During El Niño, when the trade winds are weak or even occasionally reverse themselves, the amount of cold water that comes to the surface is reduced. Warm waters in the west Pacific Ocean slosh to the east. Now there is a large area along the equator where ocean temperatures are above normal. Heat from the ocean then goes out into the atmosphere, leading to warmer air temperatures in the Pacific and subsequently, to warmer global air temperatures (plus a cascade of other impacts). [...] Weak winds allow warm surface waters to build up in the eastern Pacific. Sometimes, but not always, the atmosphere responds to this warming with increased rising air motion and above-average rainfall in the eastern Pacific. This coordinated change in both ocean temperatures and the atmosphere begins an El Niño event. As the event develops, the warmed waters cause the winds to weaken even further, which can cause the waters to warm even more.
Claim: Most likely the primary control knob [on climate change] is the ocean waters and this environment that we live in. (Rick Perry, 2017-06-19)
Evidence (2020-11-30): Energy Secretary Rick Perry said Monday he does not believe carbon dioxide emissions are the main driver of the earth’s record-setting warming, a core finding of climate science. Instead, Perry said, the driver is most likely "the ocean waters and this environment that we live in." [...] But Perry went further in his response to CNBC host Joe Kernen—who has expressed his own skepticism about climate science in the past—when asked whether he viewed carbon dioxide as the main "control knob" for climate. "No. Most likely the primary control knob is the ocean waters and this environment that we live in," Perry, a former Texas governor, said.
Claim: Most likely the primary control knob [on climate change] is the ocean waters and this environment that we live in. (Rick Perry, 2017-06-19)
Evidence (2017-08-08): "Evidence for a changing climate abounds, from the top of the atmosphere to the depths of the oceans," the report states. "Thousands of studies conducted by tens of thousands of scientists around the world have documented changes in surface, atmospheric, and oceanic temperatures; melting glaciers; disappearing snow cover; shrinking sea ice; rising sea level; and an increase in atmospheric water vapor. Many lines of evidence demonstrate that human activities, especially emissions of greenhouse (heat-trapping) gases, are primarily responsible for recent observed climate changes." [...] Also, the frequency of extreme weather events, including heavy rain and heat waves, has increased and is very likely to continue to do so. And since 1880, global sea levels have risen 8 to 9 inches — roughly 3 of those inches since 1990 — with human activity playing a substantial role, according to the report. [...] In March, Environmental Protection Agency head Scott Pruitt told CNBC, "No, I would not agree that [carbon dioxide is] a primary contributor to the global warming that we see." And in June, Energy Secretary Rick Perry echoed Pruitt’s comments, saying "no" when asked by CNBC whether he believes carbon dioxide "is the primary control knob for the temperature of the Earth and for climate."
Claim: Most likely the primary control knob [on climate change] is the ocean waters and this environment that we live in. (Rick Perry, 2017-06-19)
Evidence (2022-04-21): Washington, DC – In an interview today on CNBC's Squawk Box, Secretary of Energy Rick Perry denied that CO2 emissions are primarily responsible for climate change, stating instead that "the primary control knob is the ocean waters and this environment that we live in." In response, Congressman Earl Blumenauer (OR-03) today sent a letter to Perry with educational materials outlining the basic established science behind climate change.
Claim: Most likely the primary control knob [on climate change] is the ocean waters and this environment that we live in. (Rick Perry, 2017-06-19)
Evidence (2020-06-23): Roughly eight-in-ten Democrats, no matter where they live, say climate change is affecting their local community at least some. However, Democrats who live close to the coastline are more likely than Democrats who live farthest away from the ocean to say climate change is affecting their local community a great deal (39% vs. 29%).
Claim: Most likely the primary control knob [on climate change] is the ocean waters and this environment that we live in. (Rick Perry, 2017-06-19)
Evidence (2023-05-11): At first, scientists thought that this might be a good thing because it leaves less carbon dioxide in the air to warm the planet. But in the past decade, they’ve realized that this slowed warming has come at the cost of changing the ocean’s chemistry. When carbon dioxide dissolves in seawater, the water becomes more acidic and the ocean’s pH (a measure of how acidic or basic the ocean is) drops. Even though the ocean is immense, enough carbon dioxide can have a major impact. In the past 200 years alone, ocean water has become 30 percent more acidic—faster than any known change in ocean chemistry in the last 50 million years.
Claim: Most likely the primary control knob [on climate change] is the ocean waters and this environment that we live in. (Rick Perry, 2017-06-19)
Evidence (2024-07-06): With changing ocean conditions and human activities, it is crucial to continually monitor threats to the species.
Claim: The rate of warming according to the data is much slower than the models used by the IPCC (Myron Ebell, 2018-10-08)
Evidence (2018-10-08): Climate scientists use models to simulate and study different aspects of Earth's climate system, and to project the rate of global warming caused by human activities. These models do, in fact, simulate the rate of global warming well, and models run in the past accurately projected the rate of warming we are currently experiencing.
Claim: The rate of warming according to the data is much slower than the models used by the IPCC (Myron Ebell, 2018-10-08)
Evidence (2023-11-01): We now redo this analysis for window lengths of 10–30 years, to see if there is any dependence of the rate increase on the chosen window. Panel c shows the resulting regression coefficients. For all trend windows longer than about 20 years, we find a consistent rate increase for the filtered data. The 5–95% confidence intervals (error bars) also decrease markedly with the length of the fit window, and is strongly reduced by the filtering procedure. The raw data also show an increasing warming rate, but with greater uncertainty and with stronger influence of annual-to-decadal scale internal variability. We also note that the raw data consistently shows a stronger rate increase than the filtered data, indicating differences in the amount of warming filtered through the time period. While the reasons for this require further investigation, it may be due to a systematic shift in SST patterns over the period of study.
Claim: The rate of warming according to the data is much slower than the models used by the IPCC (Myron Ebell, 2018-10-08)
Evidence (2024-09-25): Global surface temperature has increased faster since 1970 than in any other 50-year period over a least the last 2,000 years. For example, temperatures during the most recent decade (2011–2020) exceed those of the most recent multi-century warm period, around 6,500 years ago, the report indicates. [...] The IPCC scientists warn global warming of 2°C will be exceeded during the 21st century. Unless rapid and deep reductions in CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions occur in the coming decades, achieving the goals of the 2015 Paris Agreement "will be beyond reach". [...] The IPCC experts project that in the coming decades climate changes will increase in all regions. For 1.5°C of global warming, there will be increasing heat waves, longer warm seasons and shorter cold seasons.
Claim: The rate of warming according to the data is much slower than the models used by the IPCC (Myron Ebell, 2018-10-08)
Evidence (2023-01-18): Changes in the amount or rate of warming are much easier to detect in the OHC record than on the surface. For example, OHC shows little evidence of slowing down over the past eight years, despite a growing focus by climate sceptics on global surface temperature trends over that period. It also shows a distinct acceleration after 1991, matching the increased rate of greenhouse gas emissions over the past few decades. [...] While the world as a whole has warmed by around 1.3C since the pre-industrial period (1850-1900) in the Berkeley Earth dataset, land areas have warmed a much larger amount – by 1.8C on average. In contrast, the oceans have warmed more slowly – by around 0.8C since pre-industrial times. (See Carbon Brief’s guest post on why the land and ocean warm at different rates.) [...] The two lower-tropospheric temperature records show large differences after the early 2000s. RSS shows an overall rate of warming quite similar to surface temperature records, while UAH shows considerably slower warming in recent years than has been observed on the surface. Both have seen large adjustments in recent years that have warmed RSS and cooled UAH compared to prior versions of each record.
Claim: The rate of warming according to the data is much slower than the models used by the IPCC (Myron Ebell, 2018-10-08)
Evidence (2024-04-04): The IPCC’s AR6 also produced a set of "assessed warming projections" that incorporate multiple lines of evidence. While these project future warming levels a bit below the average of CMIP6 models, they still expect the rate of warming up to 2050 to be around 26% faster than the world has experienced to date since 1970. [...] Climate models have long shown a faster rate of warming in current and future decades than has been observed to date, though there is some disagreement among modelling estimates. [...] The full CMIP6 ensemble of models has notably more warming than the IPCC-assessed warming projections. CMIP6 models, on average, warm by 0.29C per decade with a range of 0.2C to 0.4C, or 53% faster than historical warming since 1970.
Claim: The rate of warming according to the data is much slower than the models used by the IPCC (Myron Ebell, 2018-10-08)
Evidence (2020-01-29): According to an ongoing temperature analysis led by scientists at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), the average global temperature on Earth has increased by at least 1.1° Celsius (1.9° Fahrenheit) since 1880. The majority of the warming has occurred since 1975, at a rate of roughly 0.15 to 0.20°C per decade. [...] As the maps show, global warming does not mean temperatures rise everywhere at every time by same rate. Temperatures might rise 5 degrees in one region and drop 2 degrees in another. For instance, exceptionally cold winters in one place might be balanced by extremely warm winters in another part of the world. Generally, warming is greater over land than over the oceans because water is slower to absorb and release heat (thermal inertia). Warming may also differ substantially within specific land masses and ocean basins. [...] The leveling off of temperatures in the middle of the 20th century can be explained by natural variability and by the cooling effects of aerosols generated by factories, power plants, and motor vehicles in the years of rapid economic growth after World War II. Fossil fuel use also increased after the war (5 percent per year), boosting greenhouse gases. Cooling from aerosol pollution happened rapidly. In contrast, greenhouse gases accumulated slowly, but they remain in the atmosphere for a much longer time. According to former GISS director James Hansen, the strong warming trend of the past four decades likely reflects a shift from balanced aerosol and greenhouse gas effects on the atmosphere to a predominance of greenhouse gas effects after aerosols were curbed by pollution controls.
Claim: The rate of warming according to the data is much slower than the models used by the IPCC (Myron Ebell, 2018-10-08)
Evidence (2022-06-15): The current warming trend is different because it is clearly the result of human activities since the mid-1800s, and is proceeding at a rate not seen over many recent millennia.1 It is undeniable that human activities have produced the atmospheric gases that have trapped more of the Sun’s energy in the Earth system. This extra energy has warmed the atmosphere, ocean, and land, and widespread and rapid changes in the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, and biosphere have occurred. [...] Ice cores drawn from Greenland, Antarctica, and tropical mountain glaciers show that Earth’s climate responds to changes in greenhouse gas levels. Ancient evidence can also be found in tree rings, ocean sediments, coral reefs, and layers of sedimentary rocks. This ancient, or paleoclimate, evidence reveals that current warming is occurring roughly 10 times faster than the average rate of warming after an ice age. Carbon dioxide from human activities is increasing about 250 times faster than it did from natural sources after the last Ice Age.3 [...] Global sea level rose about 8 inches (20 centimeters) in the last century. The rate in the last two decades, however, is nearly double that of the last century and accelerating slightly every year.10
Claim: The rate of warming according to the data is much slower than the models used by the IPCC (Myron Ebell, 2018-10-08)
Evidence (2012-03-06): The net impacts of these human actions and choices on future greenhouse gas concentrations are fed into models as different "scenarios." For example, the scenario represented by the blue trend line above (IPCC Scenario B1) assumes that humans worldwide will make more sustainable development choices by using a greater range of, and more efficient, technologies for producing energy. In this scenario, carbon emissions are projected to increase from today’s rate of about 9 billion metric tons per year to about 12 billion tons per year in 2040, and then gradually decline again to 1990 levels—5 billion tons per year—by 2100. [...] Because temperature projections depend on the choices people make in the future, climate scientists can’t say which one of the scenarios is more likely to come to pass by the end of the century. These scenarios are estimates, and greenhouse gas concentrations may grow at rates that are higher or lower than the scenarios shown in the graph. If future carbon dioxide emissions follow the same trajectory as they have over the last decade, increasing at a rate of more than 3 percent per year, carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere would exceed the scenario represented by the red line (IPCC scenario A2) by the end of this century, if not before.