copenlu/druid huggingface dataset:
Claim: By 2026, 96% of the projected population growth in Northern Ireland will be represented by people aged 65 and over. (Spend it Like Stormont, 2019-06-12)
Evidence (2024-05-08): The age structure of the UK population is projected to change substantially over the next few decades. Figure 3.1 shows the fraction of adults (aged 20+) who are aged 65 or above, and the fraction over the SPA (which is currently 66 for both men and women, but as recently as 2010 was 60 for women and 65 for men). The share of the adult population aged 65 or above was relatively flat, between 21% and 22%, for the period 1977 to 2012, but rose from 22% to 24% between 2012 and 2020, and is projected to rise to 31% by 2050. [...] Despite this rising share of the population aged 65 and over, the share of people above the SPA has so far remained remarkably constant because of the large increases in the SPA for women since 2010. However, despite further increases in the SPA – to 67 by 2028 and 68 by 2046 for both men and women – already legislated, the fraction of people above SPA is currently projected to increase from 24% in 2023 to 27% in 2050. Together with population growth, this means that by 2050 the number of individuals above the SPA will be 25% higher than today.
Claim: By 2026, 96% of the projected population growth in Northern Ireland will be represented by people aged 65 and over. (Spend it Like Stormont, 2019-06-12)
Evidence (2022-03-02): Like most advanced economies, Scotland has an aging population. The share of children (15 years and below) in the population has declined from 20.2% in 1993 to 16.9% in 2018. Over the same period, however, the share of the pensionable age[75] group has only increased from 18% to 19%. [...] The changes in the population age profile is affecting Scotland's workforce. Scotland is seeing a gradual increase employment in the older age groups. In 2020, the over 50-age group accounted for 30.9% of total employment, compared to only 24.9% in 2010. The estimated employment rates for those aged 65 years and over has increased from 5.2 per cent in 2004 to 8.7 per cent in 2020, as working lives are getting longer. The share of workers aged 50 to 64 years has increased from around a quarter of the workforce in 2010 to around one third in 2020. [...] Looking to the future, the trend towards an aging population is projected to continue. According to National Records Scotland projections, Scotland's working age population could decline to 62 per cent in 2043 (from 64.1 per cent in 2018). This will affect Scotland's labour and skills supply. While these changes may present as slow or gradual, with greater challenges appearing to be in the distant future, reversing demographic changes will also be a slow and gradual process.
Claim: By 2026, 96% of the projected population growth in Northern Ireland will be represented by people aged 65 and over. (Spend it Like Stormont, 2019-06-12)
Evidence (2023-09-06): 65 years and over: 17% (2024 est.) (male 2,090,315/female 2,453,392) [...] Sex ratio at birth: 1.06 male(s)/female 0-14 years: 1.07 male(s)/female 15-64 years: 1.01 male(s)/female 65 years and over: 0.85 male(s)/female total population: 0.99 male(s)/female (2024 est.) [...] percent of population: 96% (2021 est.)
Claim: By 2026, 96% of the projected population growth in Northern Ireland will be represented by people aged 65 and over. (Spend it Like Stormont, 2019-06-12)
Evidence (2023-08-15): The proportion of the very old in the Australian population is increasing: in 2016, there are 486,700 people aged 85 and over, representing 2.0% of the population. This number is projected to more than double by 2036, to 1.0 million (3.2% of the population) (ABS 2013). [...] The very old are under-represented in many health surveys, particularly frail or ill people who are cared for in settings such as hospitals and permanent residential aged care. As a result, the proportion of frail or ill people in the population may be under-estimated, and there is limited information on their experience of, and outcomes from, interactions with the health system. In addition, data regarding the very old is not consistently collected or reported—instead, broader 'old' age groups, such as people aged 65 and over, are often used instead. [...] - Proportions are not age-standardised, and in some instances higher prevalence may reflect the older age profiles in Inner regional and Outer regional/Remote areas.
Claim: By 2026, 96% of the projected population growth in Northern Ireland will be represented by people aged 65 and over. (Spend it Like Stormont, 2019-06-12)
Evidence (2021-06-28): Age of respondent is an important factor. The biggest difference between 18 to 34 year-olds and those aged 65 and over is on trust in civil servants, where there is a 30% gap (73% and 43% respectively).
Claim: By 2026, 96% of the projected population growth in Northern Ireland will be represented by people aged 65 and over. (Spend it Like Stormont, 2019-06-12)
Evidence (2014-10-21): The Population of Ireland is projected to grow by 32% between 2007 and 2026 and by 96% for the over 70s. The Eastern region is estimated to grow by 3% over the lifetime of the projections at the expense of most other regions. The Monte Carlo simulations project that females will be a bigger driver of GMS costs than males. Midlands region will be the most expensive of the eight old health board regions. Those aged 70 and over and children under 11 will be significant drivers of GMS costs with the impending demographic changes. Overall GMS medicines costs are projected to rise to €1.9bn by 2026. [...] The population of Ireland is projected to grow rapidly with a sharp increase in both the birth rate and in the elderly population. The total population is projected to grow by 96.3 per cent over the lifetime of the projections. The projections indicate that the population will increase from 4.3 million in 2007 to 5.7 million in 2026 (32.6% increase). The male population is estimated to increase by 33.4 per cent increase and the female population is estimated to increase by 30.2 per cent by 2026. In the 70 to 74 age category, there is an estimated 85.4 per cent increase between 2007 and 2026. The over 75 s shows the largest increase over the lifetime of the projections where the population more than doubles from 208,756 in 2007 to 422,589 in 2026 (102.4%). Over 70s projected population will increase in the first three time periods (2007–2011, 2011–2016 and 2016–2021) and will grow at a slower rate of 22.6 per cent between 2021 and 2026.
Claim: By 2026, 96% of the projected population growth in Northern Ireland will be represented by people aged 65 and over. (Spend it Like Stormont, 2019-06-12)
Evidence (2024-10-09): The British Office for National Statistics' 2016-based National Population Projections indicated that, if recent trends continue, the UK's population would increase by 3.6 million between mid-2016 and mid-2026. This represents an average annual growth rate of 0.5%. Over the same period, the population of England is projected to grow by 5.9%; for Wales, this figure is 3.1%, while for Scotland and Northern Ireland the figures are 3.2% and 4.2% respectively. These projections did not allow for any possible effects of the UK leaving the European Union.[40] [...] Northern Ireland (2020 estimate) [...] Above the age of 65 years old5 to 15%15 to 20%20 to 25%25% and above
Claim: By 2026, 96% of the projected population growth in Northern Ireland will be represented by people aged 65 and over. (Spend it Like Stormont, 2019-06-12)
Evidence (2024-04-03): The effects of an ageing population that weighs on participation will intensify in the coming years,[11] due to the increasing share of older people in the population who have lower-than-average participation rates. [...] (11) According to the latest ONS population projections, the population aged 16 or over is expected to increase by close to 1.9 million, with the population aged over 65 rising by 1.2 million.
Claim: A £400m pot left unallocated by Stormont is going to be used to cover ongoing spending by departments. (Sammy Wilson, 2022-09-21)
Evidence (2022-09-21): Northern Ireland currently has around £270m in unallocated public money
Claim: A £400m pot left unallocated by Stormont is going to be used to cover ongoing spending by departments. (Sammy Wilson, 2022-09-21)
Evidence (2023-12-19): Stormont's overspend will be written off if devolution returns and the executive produces a fiscal sustainability plan.
Claim: A £400m pot left unallocated by Stormont is going to be used to cover ongoing spending by departments. (Sammy Wilson, 2022-09-21)
Evidence (2024-01-30): Top of the list will be to set a budget and to get down to distributing the funds allocated by the UK government, but a word of warning: £3.3bn sounds a lot, but this is still a challenging financial climate, and Northern Ireland is suffering from years of underinvestment which has seen, to pick just two areas, waiting lists spiral and infrastructure problems go unrepaired. Just ask anyone about the potholes on the North’s roads.
Claim: A £400m pot left unallocated by Stormont is going to be used to cover ongoing spending by departments. (Sammy Wilson, 2022-09-21)
Evidence (2023-07-04): Two-year timetable for Stormont to repay £300m ‘overly punitive’, says economist [...] A two-year timetable for Stormont to repay an almost £300 million overspend is "overly punitive", a senior economist has said. [...] PA ReadyStormontRobert ChoteChris Heaton-HarrisNorthern IrelandWestminsterMPsUK GovernmentRebecca Black 1/1Two-year timetable for Stormont to repay £300m ‘overly punitive’, says economist
Claim: A £400m pot left unallocated by Stormont is going to be used to cover ongoing spending by departments. (Sammy Wilson, 2022-09-21)
Evidence (2022-05-20): Meanwhile, Mr Murphy said the pot of money left unspent at Stormont due to the ongoing political stalemate now stands at £421 million. [...] A draft three-year budget along with £300m in unallocated funding from the UK Treasury was left on the Executive table when Paul Givan resigned as first minister in February as part of the DUP’s protest over the Northern Ireland Protocol.
Claim: A £400m pot left unallocated by Stormont is going to be used to cover ongoing spending by departments. (Sammy Wilson, 2022-09-21)
Evidence (2023-04-25): Mr Heaton-Harris is due to set the budget for Stormont departments in the absence of a functioning Northern Ireland Executive. [...] The Public Sector Chairs' Forum represents public bodies operating under all of Stormont's departments and includes the Education Authority and health and social care trusts. [...] Stormont spends about £14bn a year, with the bulk of that going to health and education.
Claim: A £400m pot left unallocated by Stormont is going to be used to cover ongoing spending by departments. (Sammy Wilson, 2022-09-21)
Evidence (2022-01-25): The South Belfast MLA was speaking after it emerged that the money remains ‘unallocated’ in the January Monitoring Round. [...] "It is absolutely outrageous that Sinn Féin’s Finance Minister has left £100m unallocated when every household in the North is experiencing soaring energy costs, when food banks remain an everyday feature of too many people’s lives, when our hospital waiting lists continue to get longer. We have had 15 years of failure from his party but I can’t think of a clearer example of it than a Minister who would leave £100m unspent rather than allocating it to projects that can change the lives of the people we represent. [...] "The level of unallocated funding is largely a result of the notification from Treasury of £150 million of Covid funding in December combined with the high level of funding returned by Departments late in the financial year.
Claim: A £400m pot left unallocated by Stormont is going to be used to cover ongoing spending by departments. (Sammy Wilson, 2022-09-21)
Evidence (2022-03-10): Finance Minister Conor Murphy has said a pot of £300m from the Treasury cannot be spent without executive approval. [...] The DUP has argued that if there is "political will" and agreement among the parties to allocate the money to departments, it can be done without the need for an executive meeting. [...] On Thursday, Ms O'Neill posted on social media to explain that a renomination could allow ministers to "agree a budget and allocate the £300m available to struggling families".
Claim: A £400m pot left unallocated by Stormont is going to be used to cover ongoing spending by departments. (Sammy Wilson, 2022-09-21)
Evidence (2024-03-11): The UK government has given details of money being reallocated as part of the financial package which accompanied the return of Stormont. [...] The largest reallocation, £203m, comes from the New Deal for Northern Ireland, external. The New Deal, announced in 2020, was a £400m package largely aimed at mitigating the economic impacts of Brexit on Northern Ireland.
Claim: A £400m pot left unallocated by Stormont is going to be used to cover ongoing spending by departments. (Sammy Wilson, 2022-09-21)
Evidence (2024-05-21): That extra funding will be distributed in June in the Executive’s first in-year monitoring round, which is the process by which new or unspent funds are allocated against bids from various departments. [...] The £3.3 billion financial package will have already been spent in Northern Ireland prior to the start of the 2026/27 financial year. This had prompted concerns that Stormont would face a financial cliff edge when the additional support dried up. [...] The Executive in Belfast agreed a budget package last month that Ms Archibald acknowledged had left all departments short of what they required.
Claim: A £400m pot left unallocated by Stormont is going to be used to cover ongoing spending by departments. (Sammy Wilson, 2022-09-21)
Evidence (2024-01-30): The return of Stormont will trigger the release of a £3.3bn (€3.84bn) financial package from the UK government, with a significant chunk allocated to settle the ongoing disputes over public sector pay that saw Northern Ireland brought to a near-standstill earlier this month in the largest strike in a generation. [...] One of the main windfalls of the return of Stormont will be Northern Ireland unlocking £3.3bn (€3.8bn) in funding from the UK government. So what will that likely be spent on? [...] One of the most practical impacts of the return of Stormont will be a £3.3bn (€3.84bn) financial package available from the UK government, which had been subject to the return of powersharing. A significant chunk of the funding will likely be used to settle ongoing public pay disputes.
Claim: A £400m pot left unallocated by Stormont is going to be used to cover ongoing spending by departments. (Sammy Wilson, 2022-09-21)
Evidence (2023-07-19): Earlier this month, Northern Ireland's top civil servant said Stormont departments had "reached the limit" of what they can do to manage budget pressures this year.
Claim: A £400m pot left unallocated by Stormont is going to be used to cover ongoing spending by departments. (Sammy Wilson, 2022-09-21)
Evidence (2021-09-29): Stormont 'could raise £600m' by following some GB policies - Published - comments The man leading a review of Stormont's tax and spending powers has said the executive could have up to £600m to spend if it brought some policies into line with other parts of the UK.
Claim: A £400m pot left unallocated by Stormont is going to be used to cover ongoing spending by departments. (Sammy Wilson, 2022-09-21)
Evidence (2024-02-03): There are nine Stormont departments.
Claim: A £400m pot left unallocated by Stormont is going to be used to cover ongoing spending by departments. (Sammy Wilson, 2022-09-21)
Evidence (2023-12-11): Northern Ireland’s political parties have been offered hundreds of millions in extra public spending on condition that the Stormont institutions are brought back to life, but the money is unlikely to fill the legislature’s budget gap. [...] Last year, Stormont overspent by nearly £300m, while the 2023/24 budget is also significantly in the red, too. Minus Stormont ministers, civil servants have made £1 billion worth of cuts, but a £1 billion deficit is still forecast - including £450m for inflation pressures and higher demands for health services from an ageing population. In addition, £550m is overdue for the public pay bill.
Claim: The economy in Derry/Londonderry has contracted 21% since the restoration of the Northern Ireland Assembly in 2007. (Derry University Group, 2021-07-09)
Evidence (2021-07-09): between 2007 and 2015, where the DUG assessment stops, GVA (adjusted for inflation to 2018 prices) grew by less than 1%, from £2.52bn to £2.55bn; and since the restoration of the Northern Ireland Assembly in 2007 to 2019, the latest year for which ONS data is available, the Derry and Strabane area economy grew by 15.4%, from £2.524bn to £2.912bn (shown in figure below).
Claim: The economy in Derry/Londonderry has contracted 21% since the restoration of the Northern Ireland Assembly in 2007. (Derry University Group, 2021-07-09)
Evidence (2024-01-01): This claim is inaccurate. Since 2007, economic output in the Derry and Strabane area has grown by 15% whether measured by Gross Value Added (GVA)Economy | [...] Derry/Londonderry only city without its own university?
Claim: The economy in Derry/Londonderry has contracted 21% since the restoration of the Northern Ireland Assembly in 2007. (Derry University Group, 2021-07-09)
Evidence (2023-12-13): Northern Ireland Economic Trade Statistics Quick Reference Guide [...] Background information - Background information for Northern Ireland Economic Trade Statistics - Statistical protocols and compliance
Claim: The economy in Derry/Londonderry has contracted 21% since the restoration of the Northern Ireland Assembly in 2007. (Derry University Group, 2021-07-09)
Evidence (2022-05-24): Image .csv .xlsThe economic contraction was an extension of the downturn seen in the late 1970s and early 1980s. While inflation had come under control, the fiscal policies of reduced public spending and privatisation remained. [...] Household expenditure fell by 4.8% from late 2007 to mid-2009 as incomes stagnated. [...] Household spending fell by over 20% over this period, the largest quarterly contraction on record, which was driven by falls in spending on restaurants, hotels, transport and recreation.
Claim: The economy in Derry/Londonderry has contracted 21% since the restoration of the Northern Ireland Assembly in 2007. (Derry University Group, 2021-07-09)
Evidence (2024-10-09): Northern Ireland’s economy is closely bound to that of the rest of the United Kingdom. Although historically the economic links between Northern Ireland and its closest neighbour, the republic of Ireland, were remarkably underdeveloped, trade between the two has grown substantially. Compared with the rest of the United Kingdom, the economy of Northern Ireland has long suffered, largely a result of political and social turmoil. To spur economic development, in the 1980s the British and Irish governments created the International Fund for Ireland, which disburses economic assistance to the entire island, with significant resources going to Northern Ireland. Northern Ireland also receives economic assistance from the European Union.
Claim: The economy in Derry/Londonderry has contracted 21% since the restoration of the Northern Ireland Assembly in 2007. (Derry University Group, 2021-07-09)
Evidence (2012-08-01): Delivering Local Development in Derry~Londonderry, Northern Ireland [...] Derry-Londonderry has a challenging period ahead as it seeks to create 12 000 much needed jobs in the city over the next 10 years. It is now an outward-looking and learning city, seeking to learn from international best practice and in turn contribute to new thinking and understanding. Through One Plan – the Regeneration Plan for Derry Londonderry 2020 – the city can determine a different future: a stronger economy and equal society. Delivering Local Development in Derry~Londonderry, Northern Ireland: Inclusive Growth Through One Plan helps the city set out a path to reshape its future to ensure that the economy is able to generate sufficient, productive and sustainable employment, with opportunities for progression and accessibility for all.
Claim: The economy in Derry/Londonderry has contracted 21% since the restoration of the Northern Ireland Assembly in 2007. (Derry University Group, 2021-07-09)
Evidence (2024-08-18): During the Troubles, the city burned but, while the Troubles ended in Derry years before they ended elsewhere, the peace dividend never meaningfully arrived. Today, Derry is more economically disadvantaged than it has ever been, more poor, more marginal. It is also more distinctively itself: a "whole and rain-domed universe," as the poet Colette Bryce has it; "Monaco without the money," wrote the late broadcaster Gerry Anderson. A world unto itself: Derry Girls showed the city’s exuberance, its anarchic humour – and its underlying sadness and its loneliness. [...] Because this is Northern Ireland’s terminal phase. This place never made any ethical or economic sense – and Derry is the apotheosis of that wider failure. A century ago, the city was locked into a senseless connection with Belfast – and today, it is being sucked dry by this same connection: by the overwhelming Belfast-centrism of Northern Ireland’s economic and political life. When Northern Ireland is wound up, I hope to see natural patterns of society and economics revive, and a century of waste in Derry swept away. I often dream as I walk – I’m doing it again today: I imagine new university buildings, the campus spilling out from its old hillside grounds, reaching towards the city centre, regenerating neighbourhoods, bringing people to live, work, study in central Derry. The city buoyed up, able at last to reach its potential, to acknowledge the past – and let it go.
Claim: The economy in Derry/Londonderry has contracted 21% since the restoration of the Northern Ireland Assembly in 2007. (Derry University Group, 2021-07-09)
Evidence (2024-10-09): Derry was a focal point for the nascent civil rights movement in Northern Ireland. [...] - ^ Draft EQIA, Appendix pp.91–2 - ^ a b McMahon, Damien (26 February 2010). "Report of Town Clerk and Chief Executive to Special Council Meeting". DerryCity.gov.uk. Derry City Council. Archived from the original on 10 July 2007. Retrieved 1 May 2010. [...] - ^ Shirlow, Peter; Graham, Brian; McMullan, Amanda; Murtagh, Brendan; Robinson, Gillian; Southern, Neil (2005). "Population Change and Social Inclusion Study: Derry/Londonderry" (PDF). Office of the First Minister and Deputy First Minister. Archived (PDF) from the original on 9 April 2008. Retrieved 27 March 2008.