copenlu/druid huggingface dataset:
Claim: They tell us that we are the primary forces controlling earth temperatures by the burning of fossil fuels and releasing their carbon dioxide. I hope my readers can recognize the absurdity of their claims. … increasing sunspots are linked to increases in earth temperature (Jay Lehr, 2020-04-15)
Evidence (2024-01-01): This includes making corrections to the time series of temperature records to account for variations in the location or environment of an observation station, or changes in the measurement techniques of historic temperature records. This monitoring makes us certain that increasing global temperatures are due to human activities since the industrial revolution, when the burning of fossil fuels started injecting huge levels of greenhouses gases into the atmosphere. [...] The sun provides all the energy for the Earth’s climate. This means any changes in its radiative output also have a strong potential to influence global atmospheric and ocean temperatures. Scientists have measured solar radiation using satellites over the past forty years, and have looked at indicators of solar activity over much longer periods in geological data. This evidence shows us that, over the past 10,000 years at least, the sun’s energy has varied by less than one tenth of one percent. This is enough to have caused variations in global temperature of around 0.1°C, but cannot explain the global warming of around 1°C over the past century[2]. [...] These natural variations in solar radiation are subtle, and scientists know they are too weak to build an Ice Age by themselves. However, their effect is amplified by feedback loops that make them stronger. For example, when the Earth’s surface turns white due to increased snow and ice cover, it becomes more reflective and so cools the planet further. Variation in CO2 levels is also an important feedback loop in creating an Ice Age. Part of this feedback loop relates to changes in how much CO2 the ocean stores.
Claim: They tell us that we are the primary forces controlling earth temperatures by the burning of fossil fuels and releasing their carbon dioxide. I hope my readers can recognize the absurdity of their claims. … increasing sunspots are linked to increases in earth temperature (Jay Lehr, 2020-04-15)
Evidence (2021-02-25): Before humans began burning fossil fuels, naturally occurring greenhouse gases helped to make Earth’s climate habitable. Without them, the planet’s average temperature would be below freezing. So we know that even very low, natural levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases can make a huge difference in Earth’s climate. [...] In the case of greenhouse gases, the planet’s temperature is a balance between how much energy comes in versus how much energy goes out. Ultimately, any increase in the amount of heat-trapping means that the Earth’s surface gets hotter. (For a more advanced discussion of the thermodynamics involved, check out this NASA page.) [...] Plants, the oceans, and soil are natural carbon sinks — they remove some carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and store it underground, underwater, or in roots and tree trunks. Without human activity, the vast amounts of carbon in coal, oil, and natural gas deposits would have remained stored underground and mostly separate from the rest of the carbon cycle. But by burning these fossil fuels, humans are adding a lot more carbon into the atmosphere and ocean, and the carbon sinks don’t work fast enough to clean up our mess.
Claim: They tell us that we are the primary forces controlling earth temperatures by the burning of fossil fuels and releasing their carbon dioxide. I hope my readers can recognize the absurdity of their claims. … increasing sunspots are linked to increases in earth temperature (Jay Lehr, 2020-04-15)
Evidence (2021-08-30): Scientific studies established clear links between human-caused increased in atmospheric CO2 and global warming [...] Climate scientists agree that human-caused greenhouse gas emissions are primarily responsible for climate change, contrary to claims in Clear Energy Alliance video [...] Human-induced increases in greenhouse gases are the primary driver of global warming, contrary to claims in CFACT article
Claim: They tell us that we are the primary forces controlling earth temperatures by the burning of fossil fuels and releasing their carbon dioxide. I hope my readers can recognize the absurdity of their claims. … increasing sunspots are linked to increases in earth temperature (Jay Lehr, 2020-04-15)
Evidence (2016-12-16): This brings me to the final topic that I want to discuss here: the actual evidence for climate change. You see, so far I have been talking in pretty general terms about science, but Scaramucci’s statements are particularly absurd and misguided when we focus in on climate change, because there is so much evidence supporting it. As I have explained in more detail elsewhere, we have tested the sun, volcanoes, and other natural drivers of climate change, and they can’t explain the current warming by themselves (Meehl, et al. 2004; Hansen et al. 2005; Wild et al. 2007; Lockwood and Frohlich 2007, 2008; Lean and Rind 2008; Foster and Rahmstorf 2011; Imbers et al. 2014). However, including our greenhouse gases in the calculations does explain the warming trend (Stott et al. 2001; Meehl et al. 2004; Allen et al. 2006; Lean and Rind 2008; Imbers et al. 2014). In other words, we know that our emissions are driving the warming, because we have tested the natural drivers of climate change, and none of them (even when combined) can account for the current increase in temperatures. [...] - Lockwood and Frohlich. 2007. Recently oppositely directed trends in solar climate forcings and the global mean surface air temperature. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 463:2447–2460. [...] - Shakun et al. 2012. Global warming preceded by increasing carbon dioxide - Stott et al. 2001. Attribution of twentieth century temperature change to natural and anthropogenic causes. Climate Dynamics17:1–21.
Claim: They tell us that we are the primary forces controlling earth temperatures by the burning of fossil fuels and releasing their carbon dioxide. I hope my readers can recognize the absurdity of their claims. … increasing sunspots are linked to increases in earth temperature (Jay Lehr, 2020-04-15)
Evidence (1997-06-19): The earth's temperature, then, is primarily determined by the planetary radiation balance, through which the absorbed portion of the incoming solar radiation is nearly exactly balanced over a year's time by the outgoing terrestrial infrared radiation emitted by the climatic system to earth. As both of these quantities are determined by the properties of the atmosphere and the earth's surface, major climate theories that address changes in those properties have been constructed. Many of these remain plausible hypotheses of climatic change. Certainly the natural greenhouse effect is established beyond a reasonable scientific doubt, accounting for natural warming that has allowed the coevolution of climate and life to proceed to this point ( e.g., see Schneider and Londer, 1984). The extent to which human augmentation of the natural greenhouse effect (i.e., global warming) [...] Mass, C. and S. H. Schneider, 1977. ``Influence of sunspots and volcanic dust on long-term temperature records inferred by statistical investigations''. J. Atmos. Sci. 34 (12): 1995-2004. [...] Human beings increase the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere primarily by the burning of fossil fuels--coal, oil and natural gas--and through a number of other industrial processes.
Claim: They tell us that we are the primary forces controlling earth temperatures by the burning of fossil fuels and releasing their carbon dioxide. I hope my readers can recognize the absurdity of their claims. … increasing sunspots are linked to increases in earth temperature (Jay Lehr, 2020-04-15)
Evidence (2007-07-23): The Earth is heating up, and human beings burning fossil fuels are the dominant cause. It’s not ocean warming that dominates, it’s not cosmic rays, it’s not variations in the Earth’s orbit and tilt toward the sun (Milankovitch cycles), it’s not solar irradiance – it’s us. But there is a very vocal minority that refuses to accept that global heating is real. [...] First, there is a correlation between sunspots and solar irradiance (output) on the Earth. During this period, sunspots were less common and there was less solar energy reaching the Earth, allowing it to cool slightly. Second, there were several volcanic eruptions that released massive amounts of sulfur dioxide into the atmosphere. Sulfur dioxide is an aerosol that forms droplets of sulphuric acid in the high atmosphere and reflects solar energy back into space, so these two volcanic eruptions had some short- to medium-term effects. In addition, prior to the 1970s there were limited pollution controls, allowing pollutant aerosols to act as coolants via reflection of solar radiation. Ultimately, though, it is believed that sometime after 1970 the concentration of CO2 rose to the point that solar forcing was no longer the dominant climate factor, anthropogenic CO2 was. (Sources: Do Models Underestimate the Solar Contribution to Recent Climate Change?, Swindled!)
Claim: They tell us that we are the primary forces controlling earth temperatures by the burning of fossil fuels and releasing their carbon dioxide. I hope my readers can recognize the absurdity of their claims. … increasing sunspots are linked to increases in earth temperature (Jay Lehr, 2020-04-15)
Evidence (2011-10-01): Although nearly all experts accept that the greenhouse gases emitted by humans have caused significant warming to the planet and will likely cause much more, only about half the US public agrees, even after years of heavy media coverage. How did we get into such a mess? What are the implications for science, for how it should be communicated, and for how debates should be interpreted? Some insights may be gained by noting that global warming is not the first "inconvenient truth" in physics. Consider this description of another, bygone debate: [...] The progression of the global warming idea so far has been quite similar to that of Copernicanism. The idea that changes in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations can and do cause significant climate changes (a notion for which I will use the shorthand term "greenhouse warming") was proposed qualitatively in 1864 by renowned physicist John Tyndall, when he discovered carbon dioxide’s opacity to IR radiation. In 1896 Nobel laureate Svante Arrhenius quantitatively predicted the warming to be caused in the future by coal burning; the prediction was tested and promoted by steam engineer Guy Callendar in the late 1930s. At first few could accept that humans were capable of inﬂuencing the climate of an entire planet, but over time, and with more calculations, scientists found the possibility increasingly difficult to dismiss. [...] Steve Sherwood is a codirector of the Climate Change Research Centre at the University of New South Wales in Sydney, Australia.
Claim: They tell us that we are the primary forces controlling earth temperatures by the burning of fossil fuels and releasing their carbon dioxide. I hope my readers can recognize the absurdity of their claims. … increasing sunspots are linked to increases in earth temperature (Jay Lehr, 2020-04-15)
Evidence (2024-02-10): In 2016, CFACT published the Climate Truth File, essentially a manifesto attempting to refute human-influenced global warming. Here are some of their main points: [...] I hope my readers can recognize the absurdity of their claims. … increasing sunspots are linked to increases in earth temperature" – Inaccurate - Antarctic sea-ice extent is increasing to record levels. Antarctica is getting colder; its sea ice and ice cap are not melting. – Inaccurate
Claim: They tell us that we are the primary forces controlling earth temperatures by the burning of fossil fuels and releasing their carbon dioxide. I hope my readers can recognize the absurdity of their claims. … increasing sunspots are linked to increases in earth temperature (Jay Lehr, 2020-04-15)
Evidence (2020-05-03): Click here to access the entire article as originally published on the InsideClimate News website. [...] KEY TAKE AWAY: The effects of CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions far outweigh the effects of solar forcing on global warming. 100% of the global warming trends observed after 1950 can be attributed to anthropogenic factors. Human-induced increases in greenhouse gases are the primary driver of global warming, contrary to claims in CFACT article, Edited by Nikki Forrester, Climate Review, Apr 15, 2020
Claim: They tell us that we are the primary forces controlling earth temperatures by the burning of fossil fuels and releasing their carbon dioxide. I hope my readers can recognize the absurdity of their claims. … increasing sunspots are linked to increases in earth temperature (Jay Lehr, 2020-04-15)
Evidence (2024-03-15): References - D.V. Hoyt, and K.H. Schatten, "A discussion of plausible solar irradiance variations, 1700‐1992", Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, vol. 98, pp. 18895-18906, 1993. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/93JA01944 - N. Scafetta, "Empirical assessment of the role of the Sun in climate change using balanced multi-proxy solar records", Geoscience Frontiers, vol. 14, pp. 101650, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gsf.2023.101650 - T. Chatzistergos, "A Discussion of Implausible Total Solar-Irradiance Variations Since 1700", Solar Physics, vol. 299, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11207-024-02262-6 - P. Laut, "Solar activity and terrestrial climate: an analysis of some purported correlations", Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, vol. 65, pp. 801-812, 2003. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S1364-6826(03)00041-5 - D.V. Hoyt, and K.H. Shatten, "The Role of the Sun in Climate Change", 1997. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780195094138.001.0001 - J. Lean, A. Skumanich, and O. White, "Estimating the Sun's radiative output during the Maunder Minimum", Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 19, pp. 1591-1594, 1992. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/92GL01578 - S. Baliunas, and R. Jastrow, "Evidence for long-term brightness changes of solar-type stars", Nature, vol. 348, pp. 520-523, 1990. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/348520a0
Claim: They tell us that we are the primary forces controlling earth temperatures by the burning of fossil fuels and releasing their carbon dioxide. I hope my readers can recognize the absurdity of their claims. … increasing sunspots are linked to increases in earth temperature (Jay Lehr, 2020-04-15)
Evidence (2024-01-01): Burning fossil fuels is not the only method human beings have devised to increase the level of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Burning down a forest also sends clouds of carbon dioxide into the air. Trees and shrubby forests still cover forty per cent of the land on earth, but the forests have shrunk by about a fifth since pre-agricultural times, and the shrinkage is accelerating. In the Brazilian state of Pará, for instance, nearly seventy thousand square miles were deforested between 1975 and 1986; in the hundred years preceding that decade, settlers had cleared about seven thousand square miles. The Brazilian government has tried to slow the burning, but it employs fewer than nine hundred forest wardens in an area larger than Europe. [...] All this is speculation, certainly. No one can say with any exactness what will result from a development as awesome as the cracking of the gene. But if that technology falters some other m.ay emerge. It is the logical outcome of our belief that we must forever dominate the world to our advantage. The problem, in other words, is not simply that burning oil releases carbon dioxide, which happens, by virtue of its molecular structure, to trap the sun’s heat. The problem is that nature, the independent force that has surrounded us since our earliest days, cannot coexist with our numbers and our habits. We may well be able to create a world that can support our numbers and our habits, but it will be an artificial world—a space station.
Claim: They tell us that we are the primary forces controlling earth temperatures by the burning of fossil fuels and releasing their carbon dioxide. I hope my readers can recognize the absurdity of their claims. … increasing sunspots are linked to increases in earth temperature (Jay Lehr, 2020-04-15)
Evidence (2024-05-26): Anyone who tells you that we are, is not paying attention to the historical data. Instead, they are concerned about what "might" happen in the future, based on predictions from inadequate climate models, driven by unrealistic assumptions. [...] - Humans are adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere by burning fossil fuels. [...] "Key takeaway: Scientific evidence shows that modern global warming is primarily driven by increasing CO2 emissions from human activities. There is no evidence that solar variations or volcanic activity are substantial drivers of recent climate change."
Claim: They tell us that we are the primary forces controlling earth temperatures by the burning of fossil fuels and releasing their carbon dioxide. I hope my readers can recognize the absurdity of their claims. … increasing sunspots are linked to increases in earth temperature (Jay Lehr, 2020-04-15)
Evidence (2024-01-23): In a recent online event on November 21, Sultan Al Jaber, the president of Cop28 and chief executive of the United Arab Emirates’ state oil company Adnoc, made remarks that have sparked controversy among climate scientists and policymakers. Al Jaber claimed that there is no scientific evidence to suggest that a phase-out of fossil fuels is necessary to keep global heating within 1.5C, a statement that contradicts widely accepted scientific consensus. For this reason, we analyzed the claim "There is no science out there, or no scenario out there, that says that the phase-out of fossil fuel is what’s going to achieve 1.5C" using Climinator. Its verdict is "incorrect" and the reasoning based on the reasoning of the Mediator that aggregates the responses from the Advocates, given below. [...] AbsCC Advocate: The AbsCC Advocate noted that while the phase-out of fossil fuels is a critical component of many scenarios to limit warming, it alone is not considered sufficient. Other measures such as carbon dioxide removal and a mix of policies are also deemed necessary. The level of evidence and agreement is high, and the verdict is that the claim is mostly accurate.
Claim: They tell us that we are the primary forces controlling earth temperatures by the burning of fossil fuels and releasing their carbon dioxide. I hope my readers can recognize the absurdity of their claims. … increasing sunspots are linked to increases in earth temperature (Jay Lehr, 2020-04-15)
Evidence (2021-07-11): Climate change is a grand narrative in which manmade climate change has become the dominant cause of societal problems. Everything that goes wrong reinforces the conviction that that there is only one thing we can do prevent societal problems – stop burning fossil fuels. This grand narrative misleads us to think that if we solve the problem of manmade climate change, then these other problems would also be solved. This belief leads us away from a deeper investigation of the true causes of these problems. The end result is narrowing of the viewpoints and policy options that we are willing to consider in dealing with complex issues such as public health, water resources, weather disasters and national security.
Claim: They tell us that we are the primary forces controlling earth temperatures by the burning of fossil fuels and releasing their carbon dioxide. I hope my readers can recognize the absurdity of their claims. … increasing sunspots are linked to increases in earth temperature (Jay Lehr, 2020-04-15)
Evidence (2005-09-28): Laboratory measurements of gases trapped in dated ice cores have shown that for hundreds of thousands of years, changes in temperature have closely tracked atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. Burning fossil fuel for energy, industrial processes, and transportation releases carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is now at its highest level in 400,000 years and continues to rise. [...] Burning fossil fuel for energy, industrial processes, and transportation releases carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is now at its highest level in 400,000 years and continues to rise. Nearly all climate scientists today believe that much of Earth's current warming has been caused by increases in the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The degree of confidence in this conclusion is higher today than it was 10, or even 5 years ago, but uncertainties remain. As stated in the Academies 2001 report, ``the changes observed over the last several decades are likely mostly due to human activities, but we cannot rule out that some significant part of these changes is also a reflection of natural variability.''
Claim: there is no relationship between temperature and carbon dioxide emissions by humans[...] carbon dioxide has had a minuscule effect on global climate (Ian Plimer, 2018-08-07)
Evidence (2018-08-07): While CO2 constitutes a small percentage of the gases in the atmosphere, it is a critically important "knob" controlling Earth's climate. When the concentration of CO2 increases, more outgoing heat energy is absorbed, raising surface temperatures.
Claim: there is no relationship between temperature and carbon dioxide emissions by humans[...] carbon dioxide has had a minuscule effect on global climate (Ian Plimer, 2018-08-07)
Evidence (2009-06-09): The global temperature response to increasing atmospheric CO2 is often quantified by metrics such as equilibrium climate sensitivity and transient climate response1. These approaches, however, do not account for carbon cycle feedbacks and therefore do not fully represent the net response of the Earth system to anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Climate–carbon modelling experiments have shown that: (1) the warming per unit CO2 emitted does not depend on the background CO2 concentration2; (2) the total allowable emissions for climate stabilization do not depend on the timing of those emissions3,4,5; and (3) the temperature response to a pulse of CO2 is approximately constant on timescales of decades to centuries3,6,7,8. Here we generalize these results and show that the carbon–climate response (CCR), defined as the ratio of temperature change to cumulative carbon emissions, is approximately independent of both the atmospheric CO2 concentration and its rate of change on these timescales. From observational constraints, we estimate CCR to be in the range 1.0–2.1 °C per trillion tonnes of carbon (Tt C) emitted (5th to 95th percentiles), consistent with twenty-first-century CCR values simulated by climate–carbon models. Uncertainty in land-use CO2 emissions and aerosol forcing, however, means that higher observationally constrained values cannot be excluded.