copenlu/druid huggingface dataset:
Claim: El Niño drove record highs in global temperatures suggesting rise may not be down to man-made emissions. (David Rose, 2016-11-26)
Evidence (2024-10-02): The most recent ice age peaked around 20,000 years ago and was marked by extensive glaciation and dramatic climate shifts that reshaped Earth’s oceans, landscapes, and ecosystems. A new study involving climate researchers at The University of Texas at Austin Jackson School of Geosciences suggests that this ice age may provide crucial insights into future El Niño weather events. El Niño is one of the most influential climate patterns affecting global weather. [...] El Niño is a climate phenomenon characterized by the irregular but periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. This disrupts global weather patterns and can lead to extreme weather events across the world, said lead author Kaustubh Thirumalai, an assistant professor in the University of Arizona Department of Geosciences. "El Niño is a formidable force of nature – it induces droughts, floods and wildfires, disrupting marine and terrestrial ecosystems across the planet, with pervasive societal impacts across numerous sectors, from agriculture to the aviation industry," said Thirumalai, who began the research when he was a postdoctoral researcher at UTIG.
Claim: El Niño drove record highs in global temperatures suggesting rise may not be down to man-made emissions. (David Rose, 2016-11-26)
Evidence (2024-09-25): With the climate pattern known as El Niño in full force from mid-2023 to mid-2024, global temperatures broke records for 12 months in a row. As one of the strongest El Niño events on record, it was likely the main culprit of unprecedented heat, floods and droughts worldwide. [...] During an extreme El Niño, the impacts on global weather tend to be more severe. For example, during the winter of 1997-98, El Niño brought record rainfall to California, causing devastating landslides that killed more than a dozen people. Over the same period, the planet lost about 15% of its coral reefs due to prolonged warming. [...] The team validated the model by comparing the simulated data with past ocean temperature data retrieved from fossilized shells of foraminifera, a group of single-celled organisms ubiquitous in the oceans long before human existence. By analyzing the type of oxygen compounds preserved in these fossilized shells, the team reconstructed how El Niño drove ocean temperature fluctuations across the Pacific Ocean for the past 21,000 years. The ancient record aligned with the model’s simulations.
Claim: El Niño drove record highs in global temperatures suggesting rise may not be down to man-made emissions. (David Rose, 2016-11-26)
Evidence (2020-01-29): Air temperatures on Earth have been rising since the Industrial Revolution. While natural variability plays some part, the preponderance of evidence indicates that human activities—particularly emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases—are mostly responsible for making our planet warmer. According to an ongoing temperature analysis led by scientists at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), the average global temperature on Earth has increased by at least 1.1° Celsius (1.9° Fahrenheit) since 1880. The majority of the warming has occurred since 1975, at a rate of roughly 0.15 to 0.20°C per decade. [...] The image below shows global temperature anomalies in 2022, which tied for the fifth warmest year on record. The past nine years have been the warmest years since modern recordkeeping began in 1880.
Claim: El Niño drove record highs in global temperatures suggesting rise may not be down to man-made emissions. (David Rose, 2016-11-26)
Evidence (2024-04-25): El Niño is nearing its end. Does that mean global temperatures will cool down in 2024? [...] One of the contributing factors to that extreme warmth was El Niño, a natural, cyclical warming in a region of the Pacific Ocean that, coupled with the atmosphere, can cause global temperatures to rise. Last year, it began in June. [...] El Niño year, it ended up being hotter than 2016, and that's in part because in the eight years between the two El Niños, global temperatures have continued to climb as a result of greenhouse gases continuing to be pumped into the atmosphere.
Claim: El Niño drove record highs in global temperatures suggesting rise may not be down to man-made emissions. (David Rose, 2016-11-26)
Evidence (2024-04-16): It helped to boost global temperatures to record levels in recent months, on top of the long-term warming caused by humans. [...] Global temperatures typically increase during an El Niño episode, and fall during La Niña. [...] The hottest year on record, 2023, was boosted by El Niño conditions, on top of long-term human-caused climate change, and that warmth continued into 2024.
Claim: El Niño drove record highs in global temperatures suggesting rise may not be down to man-made emissions. (David Rose, 2016-11-26)
Evidence (2024-04-17): The current El Niño event will likely cause record-breaking average surface air temperatures in several parts of the world before waning this summer, according to a new analysis published in Scientific Reports. [...] Current El Niño conditions are exacerbating the rise in temperatures already happening as a result of human-caused climate change, McPhaden said. "Even though global temperatures are rising because of greenhouse gases, you can get a big spike because there’s this extra boost from El Niño’s release of heat from the ocean to the atmosphere." [...] But as the climate warms, future El Niños will likely continue to create record-breaking heat, McPhaden said. "The escalator of climate change only goes up. The next time El Niño comes along, we’re going to see even more extremes."
Claim: El Niño drove record highs in global temperatures suggesting rise may not be down to man-made emissions. (David Rose, 2016-11-26)
Evidence (2023-05-17): Global temperatures are likely to surge to record levels in the next five years, fuelled by heat-trapping greenhouse gases and a naturally occurring El Niño weather pattern, according to a new update issued by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) on Wednesday. [...] Some key facts - Typically, El Niño increases global temperatures in the year after it develops, in this case, that means 2024. - There is a 98 per cent chance of at least one in the next five years beating the temperature record set in 2016, when there was an exceptionally strong El Niño.
Claim: El Niño drove record highs in global temperatures suggesting rise may not be down to man-made emissions. (David Rose, 2016-11-26)
Evidence (2023-06-29): El Niño is here — how bad will it be? The strong climate pattern could push global temperatures to record highs. [...] Hot on the heels of a three-year La Niña global weather pattern, the planet seems to be headed into what could be a strong El Niño event with worldwide consequences.
Claim: El Niño drove record highs in global temperatures suggesting rise may not be down to man-made emissions. (David Rose, 2016-11-26)
Evidence (2024-01-01): El Niño’s arrival spells out the stark choices on climate was Dkr4188 now Dkr1999 for your first year, equivalent to Dkr166.58 per month. Make up your own mind. Build robust opinions with the FT’s trusted journalism. Take this offer before 24 October.
Claim: El Niño drove record highs in global temperatures suggesting rise may not be down to man-made emissions. (David Rose, 2016-11-26)
Evidence (2023-06-08): "A new record for global temperature next year is definitely plausible. It depends how big the El Niño turns out to be - a big El Niño at the end of this year, gives a high chance that we will have a new record, global temperature in 2024." [...] Record warm years, including 2016, the world's hottest on record, usually happen the year after a powerful El Niño event. [...] But an El Niño event could add up to 0.2C to that figure, pushing the world into uncharted temperature territory, and close to breaking the symbolic 1.5C guard rail, a key element of the Paris climate agreement.
Claim: El Niño drove record highs in global temperatures suggesting rise may not be down to man-made emissions. (David Rose, 2016-11-26)
Evidence (2024-04-16): The powerful El Niño weather event which along with climate change has helped push global temperatures to new highs, has ended, say scientists. [...] Scientists say that the months after the end of El Niño will give a strong indication as to whether the recent high temperatures are due to accelerated climate change or not. [...] The resulting warmer water in the Pacific has helped push global average temperatures to new highs, with March making it ten months in a row to break the record for that period.
Claim: El Niño drove record highs in global temperatures suggesting rise may not be down to man-made emissions. (David Rose, 2016-11-26)
Evidence (2024-05-09): The climate pattern known as El Niño is heading for the exit, after a year when it helped drive global temperatures to new records. Forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) say conditions will likely switch to a La Niña pattern by the end of the summer. El Niño is marked by warmer than normal ocean temperatures in the Eastern Pacific, where large amounts of heat are released to the atmosphere. It's why El Niño years are typically hotter than average. Paired with the warming caused by heat-trapping gasses from burning fossil fuels, 2023 ranked as the hottest year recorded. [...] The departure of El Niño doesn't mean 2024 will necessarily end the recent streak of record-breaking temperatures, with the last eight years having been the hottest on record.
Claim: El Niño drove record highs in global temperatures suggesting rise may not be down to man-made emissions. (David Rose, 2016-11-26)
Evidence (2024-06-03): The naturally-occurring El Niño event, which helped fuel a spike in global temperatures and extreme weather events around the world from 2023 to 2024, is showing signs of ending, according to an update from the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO). [...] Mark Ruffalo rows in on Irish politics, saying Green Party ‘about to do something really terrible to the environment’ "Every month since June 2023 has set a new temperature record – and 2023 was by far the warmest year on record. The end of El Niño does not mean a pause in long-term climate change as our planet will continue to warm due to heat-trapping greenhouse gases. Exceptionally high sea surface temperatures will continue to play an important role during the next months," said WMO deputy secretary general Ko Barrett. The past nine years have been the warmest on record even with the cooling influence of a multiyear La Niña from 2020 to early 2023. El Niño peaked in December 2023 as one of the five strongest on record.
Claim: El Niño drove record highs in global temperatures suggesting rise may not be down to man-made emissions. (David Rose, 2016-11-26)
Evidence (2021-08-26): Division of Earth and Climate Sciences, Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA [...] Hu, S. Refining El Niño projections. [...] Nature Climate Change (Nat. Clim. Chang.)
Claim: El Niño drove record highs in global temperatures suggesting rise may not be down to man-made emissions. (David Rose, 2016-11-26)
Evidence (2023-11-09): The world has experienced its hottest 12 months on record, and El Niño is set to drive temperatures higher [...] The report warned that El Niño was only just beginning to boost temperatures and, based on historical patterns, most of the effect would be felt next year. [...] The record-breaking temperatures around the world were in line with what scientists had predicted for greenhouse gas emission levels in the atmosphere, Climate Central's Dr Pershing said.
Claim: El Niño drove record highs in global temperatures suggesting rise may not be down to man-made emissions. (David Rose, 2016-11-26)
Evidence (2016-11-27): Stunning new data indicates El Nino drove record highs in global temperatures suggesting rise may not be down to man-made emissions - Global average temperatures over land have plummeted by more than 1C - Comes amid mounting evidence run of record temperatures about to end - The fall, revealed by Nasa satellites, has been caused by the end of El Nino [...] Others have argued that the records were caused by El Nino, a complex natural phenomenon that takes place every few years, and has nothing to do with greenhouse gas emissions by humans. [...] Big El Ninos always have an immense impact on world weather, triggering higher than normal temperatures over huge swathes of the world. The 2015-16 El Nino was probably the strongest since accurate measurements began, with the water up to 3C warmer than usual.
Claim: El Niño drove record highs in global temperatures suggesting rise may not be down to man-made emissions. (David Rose, 2016-11-26)
Evidence (2019-06-27): CLAIM: Stunning new data indicates El Niño drove record highs in global temperatures suggesting rise may not be down to man-made emissions. [...] Even without the big El Niño spike, 2016 will be the hottest year on record, and 2015 the second hottest. Scientists have methods to remove the effect of El Niño on the temperature record. We can also see this in a simple example where we just remove the big El Niño-related temperature spike, but 2016 remains the warmest year in the surface temperature record: [...] It is known that El Niño, an oscillation in the tropical Pacific, is a cause of short-term fluctuations of the temperature and precipitation. This should not be confused with long-term warming. This is clearly illustrated by this graph below that shows the warming of El Niño years, La Niña years (the opposite of El Niño), and neutral years individually.
Claim: El Niño drove record highs in global temperatures suggesting rise may not be down to man-made emissions. (David Rose, 2016-11-26)
Evidence (2021-10-11): Both the northern hemisphere and overall global temperatures actually lagged CO2; in other words, for the world as a whole, warming happened after atmospheric CO2 concentrations increased. The reasons for this are complex and are driven in part by changes in ocean currents as ice ages end. [...] This southern hemisphere warming caused ocean releases of CO2, which, in turn, warmed the entire planet. Shakun et al suggest that the vast majority of the global warming at the end of the last ice age occurred after CO2 increased, though this warming was driven by a combination of albedo (reflectivity) changes and the greenhouse effect. [...] The fact that relatively small changes in external forcings can drive such a large planetary response during ice ages should serve as a cautionary example. This is because human emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases push the Earth further out of the range of climate conditions that have characterised the past few million years.
Claim: El Niño drove record highs in global temperatures suggesting rise may not be down to man-made emissions. (David Rose, 2016-11-26)
Evidence (2024-01-18): Given the tremendous size and heat capacity of the global oceans, it takes a massive amount of added heat energy to raise Earth’s average yearly surface temperature even a small amount. The roughly 2-degree Fahrenheit (1 degrees Celsius) increase in global average surface temperature that has occurred since the pre-industrial era (1850-1900 in NOAA's record) might seem small, but it means a significant increase in accumulated heat. That extra heat is driving regional and seasonal temperature extremes, reducing snow cover and sea ice, intensifying heavy rainfall, and changing habitat ranges for plants and animals—expanding some and shrinking others. As the map below shows, most land areas have warmed faster than most ocean areas, and the Arctic is warming faster than most other regions. In addition, it's clear that the rate of warming over the past few decades is much faster than the average rate since the start of the 20th century. [...] Human activities, principally through emissions of greenhouse gases, have unequivocally caused global warming, with global surface temperature reaching 1.1°C above 1850-1900 in 2011-2020.
Claim: El Niño drove record highs in global temperatures suggesting rise may not be down to man-made emissions. (David Rose, 2016-11-26)
Evidence (2022-06-15): - From global temperature rise to melting ice sheets, the evidence of a warming planet abounds. [...] Global Temperature Is Rising The planet's average surface temperature has risen about 2 degrees Fahrenheit (1 degrees Celsius) since the late 19th century, a change driven largely by increased carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere and other human activities.4 Most of the warming occurred in the past 40 years, with the seven most recent years being the warmest. The years 2016 and 2020 are tied for the warmest year on record.5
Claim: El Niño drove record highs in global temperatures suggesting rise may not be down to man-made emissions. (David Rose, 2016-11-26)
Evidence (2024-08-13): In 2021, for example, Russia saw 5.4 million hectares of fire-related tree cover loss, the most recorded for that country in the last 23 years. This was due in part to prolonged heatwaves that would have been practically impossible without human-induced climate change. [...] In addition to climate and land-use changes, wildfire risk in the tropics is further fueled by El Niño events. These natural climate cycles recur every 2-7 years, causing high temperatures and below-average rainfall in certain parts of the world. During the 2015-2016 El Niño season, tree cover loss due to fires increased 10-fold in the tropical rainforests of Southeast Asia and Latin America. The strongest El Niño event since 2015-2016 emerged in June 2023 and officially ended in May 2024. [...] Similar to boreal forests, increasing tree cover loss due to fires in the tropics is causing higher carbon emissions. Previous studies found that in some years, forest fires accounted for more than half of all carbon emissions in the Brazilian Amazon. This suggests the Amazon basin may be nearing or already at a tipping point for turning into a net carbon source.
Claim: El Niño drove record highs in global temperatures suggesting rise may not be down to man-made emissions. (David Rose, 2016-11-26)
Evidence (2024-01-01): Going further back in time before accurate thermometers were widely available, temperatures can be reconstructed using climate-sensitive indicators "proxies" in materials such as tree rings, ice cores, and marine sediments. Comparisons of the thermometer record with these proxy measurements suggest that the time since the early 1980s has been the warmest 40-year period in at least eight centuries, and that global temperature is rising towards peak temperatures last seen 5,000 to 10,000 years ago in the warmest part of our current interglacial period. [...] In order to discern the human influence on climate, scientists must consider many natural variations that affect temperature, precipitation, and other aspects of climate from local to global scale, on timescales from days to decades and longer. One natural variation is the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), an irregular alternation between warming and cooling (lasting about two to seven years) in the equatorial Pacific Ocean that causes significant year-to-year regional and global shifts in temperature and rainfall patterns. Volcanic eruptions also alter climate, in part increasing the amount of small (aerosol) particles in the stratosphere that reflect or absorb sunlight, leading to a short-term surface cooling lasting typically about two to three years. Over hundreds of thousands of years, slow, recurring variations in Earth’s orbit around the Sun, which alter the distribution of solar energy received by Earth, have been enough to trigger the ice age cycles of the past 800,000 years.
Claim: El Niño drove record highs in global temperatures suggesting rise may not be down to man-made emissions. (David Rose, 2016-11-26)
Evidence (2014-04-23): The climate change resulting from human-caused emissions of carbon dioxide will persist for decades to millennia. Self-reinforcing cycles within the climate system have the potential to accelerate human-induced change and even shift Earth’s climate system into new states that are very different from those experienced in the recent past. Future changes outside the range projected by climate models cannot be ruled out, and due to their systematic tendency to underestimate temperature change during past warm periods, models may be more likely to underestimate than to overestimate long-term future change. [...] With significant reductions in emissions of greenhouse gases, the future rise in global average temperature could be limited to 3.6°F (2°C) or less, consistent with the aim of the Paris Agreement (see Box 2.4).27 Similarly, without major reductions in these emissions, the increase in annual average global temperatures relative to preindustrial times could reach 9°F (5°C) or more by the end of this century.24 Because of the slow timescale over which the ocean absorbs heat, warming that results from emissions that occur during this century will leave a multi-millennial legacy, with a substantial fraction of the warming persisting for more than 10,000 years.28,29,30
Claim: El Niño drove record highs in global temperatures suggesting rise may not be down to man-made emissions. (David Rose, 2016-11-26)
Evidence (2024-09-05): Put another way, the warmth in 2024 is something climatologists saw coming, as El Nino is a reliable driver of global temperature increases. One paper, published in February 2024 in Nature’s Scientific Reports, put the odds at 90% that global surface air temperatures would beat historical records over the year spanning July 2023 to June 2024. Climate models are again meeting expectations. [...] Environmental events can indeed cancel each other out. For example, the El Niño pattern that persisted into 1992 should have led to higher global temperatures. But it was preceded by the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines, which sent out sulfate aerosols that cooled the earth. In effect, the events neutralized one another and 1992 was not a record warm year, according to the May 2024 paper in Nature. [...] With the most recent El Niño pattern arising in mid-2023 and dissipating in 2024, 2024 is the year where El Niño should be affecting global temperatures. And 2024 does indeed have the potential to surpass 2023 as the hottest year on record, according to climatologists. But that doesn’t explain what happened in 2023.
Claim: El Niño drove record highs in global temperatures suggesting rise may not be down to man-made emissions. (David Rose, 2016-11-26)
Evidence (2012-04-04): Warming greater than the global average has already been experienced in many regions and seasons, with higher average warming over land than over the ocean (high confidence). Most land regions are experiencing greater warming than the global average, while most ocean regions are warming at a slower rate. Depending on the temperature dataset considered, 20–40% of the global human population live in regions that, by the decade 2006–2015, had already experienced warming of more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial in at least one season (medium confidence). {1.2.1, 1.2.2} Past emissions alone are unlikely to raise global-mean temperature to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels (medium confidence), but past emissions do commit to other changes, such as further sea level rise (high confidence). If all anthropogenic emissions (including aerosol-related) were reduced to zero immediately, any further warming beyond the 1°C already experienced would likely be less than 0.5°C over the next two to three decades (high confidence), and likely less than 0.5°C on a century time scale (medium confidence), due to the opposing effects of different climate processes and drivers. A warming greater than 1.5°C is therefore not geophysically unavoidable: whether it will occur depends on future rates of emission reductions. {1.2.3, 1.2.4}