copenlu/druid huggingface dataset:
Claim: “Iran has stockpiled 10 times as much enriched uranium as it had” in 2016. (Joe Biden, 2020-09-13)
Evidence (2024-05-21): Source: International Energy Agency and The World Bank. Data for year 2022. [...] The new Georges Besse II enrichment plant at Tricastin was officially opened in December 2010 and commenced commercial operation in April 2011. The €3 billion two-unit plant, which reached full annual capacity of 7.5 million SWU in 2016 (with potential for increase to 11 million SWU), was built and is operated by Orano subsidiary Societe d'Enrichissement du Tricastin (SET). The south plant started construction in 2007, commenced operation in 2011, and reached full capacity of 4.3 million SWU/yr in 2015. Construction of the north plant began in 2009 with first production in March 2013, and was fully operational at the end of 2016 with 3.2 million SWU/yr capacity. Areva claimed a 60% cost saving in its construction compared with the south plant, due to experience gained and not changing design. [...] Enrichment will be up to 6% U-235, and reprocessed uranium will only be handled in the second, north unit. There is potential to expand capacity to 11 million SWU/yr, probably with a third unit.
Claim: “Iran has stockpiled 10 times as much enriched uranium as it had” in 2016. (Joe Biden, 2020-09-13)
Evidence (2016-10-31): SECRETARY KERRY: Well, I mean, the answer is yes, providing that people don’t do dangerous things that can be interpreted as bad faith in the process. It is certainly designed on its face to more than survive. I mean, what people don’t realize about this agreement is that this is not a 10-year or a 15-year agreement, or a 20-year or 25 years, even though there are benchmarks in it for each of those things. For instance, 15 years you cannot have enrichment above 3.67 percent. For 15 years, you cannot have a stockpile more than 300 kilograms. So it is physically impossible, as long as you are verifying that— just on those two things— to not make a bomb. You cannot make a bomb with 300 kilograms. You can’t make a bomb at 3.67 percent enrichment. [...] Now, Iran has complied with every part of it so far. They’ve dismantled centrifuges, they’ve dropped the stockpile, they’ve transported enriched uranium out of the country, lowered the stockpile. And we’re certain of this. So Iran deserves the credit of having met its part of the bargain, and it’s important for us and the rest of the world to meet ours, to make sure that the lifted sanctions are in fact not still impeding the ability to be able to do business, and to grant that Iran gets the benefit of the bargain that they made. And that is just plain, simple, good faith in international relations.
Claim: “Iran has stockpiled 10 times as much enriched uranium as it had” in 2016. (Joe Biden, 2020-09-13)
Evidence (2022-03-11): After the limit of a 300 kg Iranian uranium stockpile agreed upon in the JCPOA deal was abandoned in 2018, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has reported significant growth in Iran's stockpiles of nuclear material. Even though Tehran has insisted that its nuclear program is for purely peaceful purposes, its levels of enriched uranium are now almost ten times the limit agreed in the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. The IAEA has recently also criticized Iranian explanations for nuclear material stored at an undeclared site, stating that they are not credible. Iran would only have been allowed to produce 300 kg of enriched uranium in the UF6 compound for a period of 15 years under the terms of the JCPOA. Its low-enriched uranium stockpile declined drastically after it was agreed, falling from 8,300 kg to 200 kg, according to IAEA data published by Bloomberg. In mid-2017, it even fell as low as 80 kg. Trump took the U.S. out of the nuclear deal in May 2018, signing a Presidential Memorandum, ordering harsher sanctions to be reinstated.
Claim: “Iran has stockpiled 10 times as much enriched uranium as it had” in 2016. (Joe Biden, 2020-09-13)
Evidence (2018-01-18): Iran should strictly adhere to its JCPOA commitments and move away from using brinksmanship as leverage.[fn]In addition to delaying the transfer of centrifuge infrastructure in Fordow to storage in the Natanz facility until shortly before the 16 January 2017 deadline, Iran kept its heavy-water stockpile close to the 130-ton threshold, and its low-enriched uranium stockpile just under the 300kg cap. Crisis Group interviews, U.S. and European officials, Brussels, London and Vienna, November 2016. Asked about the calculus behind this, an Iranian official retorted: "Because 299kg is under 300kg. We committed to remain under 300kg, not to keep a large distance from it". Crisis Group interview, November 2016. Yet, as an EU official said, "implementing a long-duration agreement is difficult when you are always on the brink of surpassing the threshold, even if inadvertently".
Claim: “Iran has stockpiled 10 times as much enriched uranium as it had” in 2016. (Joe Biden, 2020-09-13)
Evidence (2023-06-28): Nov. 11, 2019: The IAEA confirmed that Iran had increased its stockpile of enriched uranium to 372.3 kilograms (or about 821 pounds), beyond the JCPOA limit. The watchdog also reported that inspectors had found traces of uranium "at a location in Iran not declared to the agency." [...] Sept. 4, 2020: The IAEA reported that Iran’s stockpile of low-enriched uranium reached 2,105 kilograms, or about 10 times more than the JCPOA limit. Iran also began operating slightly more advanced centrifuges, but not enough shorten its breakout time, which remained three to four months. [...] May 30, 2022: Iran had stockpiled more than 18 times the amount of enriched uranium allowed under the 2015 nuclear deal, an unprecedented advance, according to a leaked report by the U.N. nuclear watchdog. The growing stockpile meant that Iran could amass sufficient fuel for a single nuclear bomb in a few weeks, although experts claimed that the so-called "breakout time" had decreased to a mere 10 days—or less. "This idea of crossing the line, it’s going to happen," Director General Grossi, told reporters on June 6. "Having a significant quantity [of highly enriched uranium] does not mean having a bomb," he said. "Iran can stop, through negotiations, or they themselves can decide to slow down."
Claim: “Iran has stockpiled 10 times as much enriched uranium as it had” in 2016. (Joe Biden, 2020-09-13)
Evidence (2021-11-23): Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium was also reduced by 98% to 300kg (660lbs), a figure that must not be exceeded until 2031. It must also keep the stockpile's level of enrichment at 3.67%. [...] Before July 2015, Iran had enough enriched uranium and centrifuges to create eight to 10 bombs, according to the then Obama administration. [...] By November 2021, Iran had amassed a stockpile of enriched uranium that was many times larger than permitted, including at least 17.7kg (39lb) of material enriched to 60% purity - just below the level needed for a bomb. It had also resumed enrichment activity at Fordo; installed more centrifuges, and of a more advanced type, than allowed; and taken steps in the production of enriched uranium metal, which is a key material in nuclear weapons.
Claim: “Iran has stockpiled 10 times as much enriched uranium as it had” in 2016. (Joe Biden, 2020-09-13)
Evidence (2024-09-18): The analysis below reflects the status of Iran’s enrichment program as of August 17, 2024, the date of the latest estimates provided by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Because Iran has reduced its cooperation with the Agency, the Agency is no longer able to precisely verify Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium at any one time. The Agency can verify uranium product that has been removed from the enrichment process, but it must rely on information provided by Iran to account for the amount that remains in-process. Because the in-process uranium represents a fraction of the total stockpile that is later verified, the estimates are suitable for use as a baseline measurement of how much enriched uranium Iran possesses. The analysis below is based on those estimates. [...] [3] The IAEA estimated that as of August 17, 2024, Iran's uranium stockpile contained 4,951.1 kg of uranium in the form of uranium hexafluoride (UF6), 164.7 kg of which was enriched "up to" a level of 60% in the fissionable isotope U-235, 813.9 kg of which was enriched "up to" a level of 20% U-235, and 2,321.5 kg of which was enriched "up to" a level of 5% U-235. The U-235 isotope makes up about .7% of natural uranium; its concentration can be increased, or enriched, using centrifuges.
Claim: “Iran has stockpiled 10 times as much enriched uranium as it had” in 2016. (Joe Biden, 2020-09-13)
Evidence (2020-09-13): This past month has proven that Trump’s Iran policy is a dangerous failure. At the United Nations, Trump could not rally a single one of America’s closest allies to extend the UN arms embargo on Iran. Next, Trump tried to unilaterally reimpose UN sanctions on Iran, only to have virtually all the UN security council members unite to reject his gambit. Now there are reports that Iran has stockpiled 10 times as much enriched uranium as it had when President Barack Obama and I left office. [...] Five years ago, American-led diplomacy produced a deal that ensured it would take Iran at least a year to produce enough fissile material for one bomb. Now – because Trump let Iran off the hook from its obligations under the nuclear deal –Tehran’s "breakout time" is down to just a few months. And there is no serious diplomacy underway to reverse it. The bottom line is that Iran is closer to a nuclear bomb today than it was when Donald Trump took office. And Trump has no answer for that. Five years ago, even Russia and China stood with our European allies behind an American-led approach to Iran’s nuclear program.
Claim: “Iran has stockpiled 10 times as much enriched uranium as it had” in 2016. (Joe Biden, 2020-09-13)
Evidence (2024-03-04): Iran’s stockpile of 60 percent HEU was 121.5 kg (U mass) or 179.7 kg uranium hexafluoride mass (hex mass) as of February 10, 2024, a decrease of 6.8 kg (U mass) since October 2023. [...] As of February 10, 2024, Iran had an IAEA-estimated stock of 712.2 kg of 20 percent enriched uranium (U mass and in the form of UF6), equivalent to 1053.6 kg (hex mass), representing an increase of 145.1 kg from 567.1 kg (U mass). Iran also had a stock of 31 kg (U mass) of 20 percent uranium in other chemical forms. [...] Despite the increase during this reporting period in the amount of uranium enriched between two and five percent, Iran has not prioritized stockpiling this material. For example, it has not made planned progress on the Enriched Uranium Powder Plant, a key civil facility to convert less than 5 percent enriched uranium hexafluoride into a uranium oxide powder for use in nuclear power reactor fuel. These two choices are at odds with Iran’s contention that its primary goal is to accumulate 4-5 percent enriched uranium for use in nuclear power reactor fuel. Instead, Iran has used this stock extensively to produce near 20 percent and 60 percent enriched uranium, far beyond Iran’s civilian needs.
Claim: “Iran has stockpiled 10 times as much enriched uranium as it had” in 2016. (Joe Biden, 2020-09-13)
Evidence (2023-10-27): Proponents of the deal said that it would help prevent a revival of Iran’s nuclear weapons program and thereby reduce the prospects for conflict between Iran and its regional rivals, including Israel and Saudi Arabia. However, the deal has been in jeopardy since President Donald Trump withdrew the United States from it in 2018. In retaliation for the U.S. departure and for deadly attacks on prominent Iranians in 2020, including one by the United States, Iran has resumed its nuclear activities. UN inspectors reported in early 2023 that Iran had enriched trace amounts of uranium to nearly weapons-grade levels, sparking international alarm. [...] In response to the other parties’ actions, which Tehran claimed amounted to breaches of the deal, Iran started exceeding agreed-upon limits to its stockpile of low-enriched uranium in 2019, and began enriching uranium to higher concentrations (though still far short of the purity required for weapons). It also began developing new centrifuges to accelerate uranium enrichment; resuming heavy water production at its Arak facility; and enriching uranium [PDF] at Fordow, which rendered the isotopes produced there unusable for medical purposes.
Claim: “Iran has stockpiled 10 times as much enriched uranium as it had” in 2016. (Joe Biden, 2020-09-13)
Evidence (2024-08-08): September 12, 2018: The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reports that Iran is implementing all nuclear-related commitments under the JCPOA in a quarterly report. Iran’s stockpile of uranium enriched to 3.67 percent uranium-235 is 139.4 kg, below the 300 kg of UF6 limit set by the accord, according to the report. Iran's stock of heavy water is 122.9 metric tons, below the 130 metric ton limit. [...] The IAEA verifies that Iran has amassed 372.3 kilograms of enriched uranium, comprised of 212.6 kilograms uranium hexafluoride gas (UF6) enriched to 3.67 percent uranium-235 and 159.7 kilograms UF6 enriched to 4.5 percent uranium-235. Under the JCPOA, Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile is limited to 300 kilograms UF6 enriched to 3.67 percent, which equates to 202.8 kilograms enriched uranium. The IAEA also confirms installation and testing of a variety of advanced centrifuges, including of an IR-8, an IR-s, and an IR-9 centrifuge, and reports that Iran shared it would use all advanced centrifuges for uranium enrichment and accumulation once testing is complete. The IAEA further reports that Iran has begun feeding uranium into two cascades of IR-1 centrifuges at the Fordow facility. [...] March 3, 2022: The IAEA reports that Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium is about 3,197 kilograms, 33 kilograms of which is enriched up to 60 percent purity and 182 kilograms to 20 percent. This latest measurement is more than 700 kilograms of enriched uranium over the IAEA’s previous report in November.
Claim: “Iran has stockpiled 10 times as much enriched uranium as it had” in 2016. (Joe Biden, 2020-09-13)
Evidence (2024-02-26): VIENNA (AP) — Iran has further increased its total stockpile of uranium, according to a report by the U.N. nuclear watchdog seen by The Associated Press on Monday, and it continues to bar the agency’s most seasoned inspectors from monitoring its nuclear program, [...] The IAEA estimated in its quarterly report that as of Feb. 10, Iran’s total enriched uranium stockpile was at 5,525.5 kilograms (about 12,182 pounds), an increase of 1,038.7 kilograms (2,289 pounds) since the last quarterly report in November 2023. It also said that according to its assessment, Iran has an estimated 121.5 kilograms (267.8 pounds) of uranium enriched up to 60% purity, which represents a decrease of 6.8 kilograms (14.9 pounds) since the last report in November 2023.
Claim: “Energy experts and State House Dems, among others, were warning of this (the Texas power blackout) for years.” (Beto O'Rourke, 2021-02-16)
Evidence (2021-02-16): A federal report following a massive power outage in Texas in February 2011 stated that recommendations to winterize the system following a 1989 cold weather event were not mandatory, and implementation lapsed. Sylvester Turner, a Texas state representative at the time, introduced a bill in 2011 which called for the Public Utility Commission to ensure the Electric Reliability Council of Texas had adequate reserve power to prevent blackout conditions. The bill failed to move forward.
Claim: “Energy experts and State House Dems, among others, were warning of this (the Texas power blackout) for years.” (Beto O'Rourke, 2021-02-16)
Evidence (2021-07-01): Cascading risks: Understanding the 2021 winter blackout in Texas [...] The Texas freeze of February 2021 left more than 4.5 million customers (more than 10 million people) without electricity at its peak, some for several days. The freeze had cascading effects on other services reliant upon electricity including drinking water treatment and medical services. Economic losses from lost output and damage are estimated to be $130 billion in Texas alone. In the wake of the freeze, there has been major fallout among regulators and utilities as actors sought to apportion blame and utilities and generators began to settle up accounts. This piece offers a retrospective on what caused the blackouts and the knock-on effects on other services, the subsequent financial and political effects of the freeze, and the implications for Texas and the country going forward. Texas failed to sufficiently winterize its electricity and gas systems after 2011. Feedback between failures in the two systems made the situation worse. Overall, the state faced outages of 30 GW of electricity as demand reached unprecedented highs. The gap between production and demand forced the non-profit grid manager, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), to cut off supply to millions of customers or face a systems collapse that by some accounts was minutes away. The 2021 freeze suggests a need to rethink the state’s regulatory approach to energy to avoid future such outcomes. Weatherization, demand response, and expanded interstate interconnections are potential solutions Texas should consider to avoid generation losses, reduce demand, and tap neighboring states’ capacity.
Claim: “Energy experts and State House Dems, among others, were warning of this (the Texas power blackout) for years.” (Beto O'Rourke, 2021-02-16)
Evidence (2023-12-11): The Timeline and Events of the February 2021 Texas Electric Grid Blackouts In February 2021, an extreme winter storm event caused a massive electricity generation failure in the state of Texas, which resulted in a loss of power for more than 4.5 million homes. This failure has resulted in at least 57 deaths across 25 Texas counties and over $195 billion in property damage, bringing attention to the energy system crisis and its potential causes. While much press has been dedicated to identifying the entities and individuals potentially at fault, determining exact causes and accurately assigning responsibility for an event this complex requires expert input and opinion. There is a strong public need for reliable information about the fundamental causes of the crisis and for identification of core market design, regulatory, and policy gaps that can be addressed to make the Texas energy system more robust and resilient to such massive shocks in the future. To address these needs, The University of Texas at Austin Energy Institute convened a diverse expert committee, to offer an unbiased assessment of the data and events of the blackout. This report is not intended to comprehensively address all issues stemming from such a complex event, but may inform subsequent assessments and the public policy debate about how to best design and operate the ERCOT grid. This report does not recommend policies or solutions.
Claim: “Energy experts and State House Dems, among others, were warning of this (the Texas power blackout) for years.” (Beto O'Rourke, 2021-02-16)
Evidence (2024-07-25): When Hurricane Beryl swept through southeast Texas on July 8, its damaging 80-mile-per-hour winds took down thousands of trees and knocked out much of the electricity system. More than 2.6 million Texas power customers went without electricity for days in the summer heat. [...] Ed Hirs, an energy expert at the University of Houston, said the power outages during this storm are a product of extended neglect and underinvestment in grid infrastructure by the state and utilities. [...] After Winter Storm Uri in 2021, when nearly statewide power outages persisted for days the entire electricity grid nearly collapsed, lawmakers decided Texas needed more power to meet demand. They focused their efforts on securing power generation, or fuel that is then turned into electricity, through weatherizing existing facilities and allocating $5 billion to incentivize companies to build more gas-fueled power generators in the state.
Claim: “Energy experts and State House Dems, among others, were warning of this (the Texas power blackout) for years.” (Beto O'Rourke, 2021-02-16)
Evidence (2022-05-31): But energy experts tell CNN that some power grid operators are not considering how the climate crisis is changing our weather — including more frequent extreme events — and that is a problem if the intent is to build a reliable power grid. [...] An early heatwave knocked six power plants offline in Texas earlier this month. Residents were asked to limit electricity use, keeping thermostats at 78 degrees or higher and avoid using large appliances at peak times. The Electric Reliability Council of Texas, or ERCOT, in its seasonal reliability report, said the state’s power grid is prepared for the summer and has "sufficient" power for "normal" summer conditions, based on average weather from 2006 to 2020. [...] In a recent seasonal reliability report, NERC placed Texas at "elevated risk" for blackouts this summer. It also reported that while much of the nation will have adequate electricity this summer, several markets are at risk of energy emergencies.
Claim: “Energy experts and State House Dems, among others, were warning of this (the Texas power blackout) for years.” (Beto O'Rourke, 2021-02-16)
Evidence (2021-02-22): Texas politicians saw electricity deregulation as a better future. Years later, millions lost power. [...] Twenty-five years later, a fierce debate has erupted about whether the deregulation of the Texas electricity market contributed to the most calamitous week in recent Texas history, one that saw millions of Texans desperate and shellshocked as they sought out the most basic comforts of modern civilization — food, water, heat. [...] 'An electrical island': Texas has dodged federal regulation for years by having its own power grid
Claim: “Energy experts and State House Dems, among others, were warning of this (the Texas power blackout) for years.” (Beto O'Rourke, 2021-02-16)
Evidence (2024-10-06): - ^ "Texas Was Warned a Decade Ago Its Grid Was Unready for Cold". Bloomberg L.P. February 17, 2021. Retrieved March 2, 2021. [...] - ^ Johnson, Brad (February 24, 2021). "Texas Grid Was 4 Minutes and 37 Seconds from a Statewide Blackout, Per ERCOT". The Texan. Retrieved July 12, 2024. [...] - ^ Dexheimer, Eric. "February power blackouts across Texas echoed 1989 failures, state report shows". Austin American-Statesman. Retrieved March 2, 2021.
Claim: “Energy experts and State House Dems, among others, were warning of this (the Texas power blackout) for years.” (Beto O'Rourke, 2021-02-16)
Evidence (2021-02-19): In reality, experts said the primary problem was that Texas’ thermal power plants, which make up a larger share of the state’s energy supply, were not built to withstand the cold. The plants began to go offline just as freezing temperatures boosted the demand for heating, prompting the Electric Reliability Council of Texas to impose rolling blackouts. [...] RELATED: Fact-checking Texas Republicans on blackout blame [...] PolitiFact, "Fact-checking Texas Republicans on blackout blame," Feb. 18, 2021
Claim: “Energy experts and State House Dems, among others, were warning of this (the Texas power blackout) for years.” (Beto O'Rourke, 2021-02-16)
Evidence (2021-06-09): Texas governor says power grid fixed; experts cite problems AUSTIN, Texas (AP) — Despite experts who say Texas’ power grid remains vulnerable, Republican Gov. Greg Abbott declared Tuesday that new reforms "fix all of the flaws" that caused February’s deadly winter blackout that left more than 4 million people without power in subfreezing weather. [...] Energy experts disagree, saying that although lawmakers made significant changes that include mandates to "weatherize" power plants for extreme temperatures and new processes to avert communication failures, the reforms do not go far enough to assure a similar catastrophe won’t happen again in one of America’s most booming states.