copenlu/druid huggingface dataset:
Claim: Arctic sea ice is not melting and there is no indication that we should expect the Arctic sea summer ice to disappear completely, as predicted (Allan Astrup Jensen, 2024-02-06)
Evidence (2020-08-13): Each year, Arctic sea ice expands as the sea surface freezes during the long, dark winter. At its maximum in March, the ice covers nearly the entire Arctic Ocean, almost 6 million square miles. It melts back during summer, reaching its lowest point in September. In July during the 1980s, the ice covered an average of about 3.8 million square miles, roughly the area of the U.S. or Canada. [...] Arctic sea ice influences climate and weather far beyond the Arctic. Its bright whiteness reflects solar heat back into the atmosphere and insulates the ocean below. The temperature difference between a cold Arctic and the hot tropics drives winds and ocean currents and influences weather globally. [...] The model’s ability to represent the Last Interglacial, in turn, suggests that it can be trusted with the future. When the model was run forward in time, it predicted that Arctic sea ice would all but disappear by 2035.
Claim: Arctic sea ice is not melting and there is no indication that we should expect the Arctic sea summer ice to disappear completely, as predicted (Allan Astrup Jensen, 2024-02-06)
Evidence (2016-08-16): NSIDC scientist Mark Serreze published a study in 2018 indicating that spring melt seasons have started earlier and continued for a longer period throughout the year. This conclusion was based on examining the long-term satellite record dating back to 1979. Even more disquieting, NSIDC scientist Julienne Stroeve published a study in 2007 comparing actual Arctic sea ice decline to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) projections, showing that observed ice loss is faster than any of the IPCC AR4 models have predicted. Stroeve and colleague Dirk Notz of the Alfred Wegener Institute in Germany published a study in 2016 indicating that under the Paris Agreement limiting global warming to 2°C (3.6°F), Arctic sea ice will almost inevitably disappear during summer. But the summer ice can likely be saved if warming is limited to 1.5°C (2.7°F).
Claim: Arctic sea ice is not melting and there is no indication that we should expect the Arctic sea summer ice to disappear completely, as predicted (Allan Astrup Jensen, 2024-02-06)
Evidence (2023-04-10): Over the last 40 years, annual Arctic sea ice measurements show ice shrinking by 12.6 percent each decade, a pace of decline that’s unmatched by any point in at least the last 1,500 years. Scientists measure Arctic sea ice every year in September, when satellite imaging shows ice coverage at its lowest. Since 1979, when the U.S. government started taking those measurements, Arctic ice has declined by more than 2 million square kilometers.1 "It’s a pretty large chunk of ice that is lost," says Gianluca Meneghello, a research scientist who focuses on Arctic oceanography in MIT’s department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences. "It’s one of the strongest signals of climate change." [...] Arctic ice fluctuates a lot over geologic time, and there have been periodic examples of a completely ice-free Arctic over the last 350,000 years. But at least some amount of year-round Arctic ice cover developed around 5,000 years ago and has been with us ever since. The spread of today’s Arctic ice is not only small compared to earlier points in human history—it’s also shrinking faster than at any point in at least the last 1,500 years, the period for which we have the most detailed data on historical ice cover.2 Based on current climate models, scientists expect that Arctic ice will disappear completely over the summer in the coming decades.3
Claim: Arctic sea ice is not melting and there is no indication that we should expect the Arctic sea summer ice to disappear completely, as predicted (Allan Astrup Jensen, 2024-02-06)
Evidence (2011-03-03): 1.5°C and 2°C Warmer Worlds [...] The probability of a sea-ice-free Arctic Ocean5 during summer is substantially higher at 2°C compared to 1.5°C of global warming (medium confidence). Model simulations suggest that at least one sea-ice-free Arctic summer is expected every 10 years for global warming of 2°C, with the frequency decreasing to one sea-ice-free Arctic summer every 100 years under 1.5°C (medium confidence). An intermediate temperature overshoot will have no long- term consequences for Arctic sea ice coverage, and hysteresis is not expected (high confidence). {3.3.8, 3.4.4.7} [...] Small Islands, and Coastal and Low-lying areas
Claim: Arctic sea ice is not melting and there is no indication that we should expect the Arctic sea summer ice to disappear completely, as predicted (Allan Astrup Jensen, 2024-02-06)
Evidence (2024-03-05): The Arctic could see summer days with practically no sea ice as early as the next couple of years, according to a new study out of CU Boulder. [...] The good news: Arctic sea ice is resilient and can return quickly if the atmosphere cools down. "Unlike the ice sheet in Greenland that took thousands of years to build, even if we melt all the Arctic sea ice, if we can then figure out how to take CO2 back out of the atmosphere in the future to reverse warming, sea ice will come back within a decade," Jahn said.
Claim: Arctic sea ice is not melting and there is no indication that we should expect the Arctic sea summer ice to disappear completely, as predicted (Allan Astrup Jensen, 2024-02-06)
Evidence (2024-10-02): However, there is also some uncertainty on how sensitive Arctic sea ice itself is to warming. For a given amount of warming, different climate models predict different amounts of sea ice loss. Fortunately, we have now over 40 years of satellite-based measurements of both Arctic sea ice and temperature, allowing scientists to estimate this temperature sensitivity from observations directly: for every 1°C (1.8°F) of warming, the Arctic sea ice shrunk by about 800,000 km2 (about 300,000 square miles or the combined size of Texas and New Mexico). It turns out that most climate models show a weaker temperature sensitivity than observed – in other words, they underestimate how vulnerable sea ice is to warming. Two recent studies, by Bonan et al. (reported on here) and Kim et al., have used this insight to provide updated predictions of when the Arctic will be ice-free: both predict it to happen about 10 years earlier than we thought based on the climate models. The Kim study, published this year, made headlines for concluding that an ice-free Arctic is now inevitable, even under the most optimistic emissions scenario. It’s important to understand that they found individual years to dip below the "ice-free" threshold of 1 million km2, not that the sea ice disappears completely to never return. Still, this is an alarming result suggesting we have less time than we thought to prevent this profound transformation of the Arctic ecosystem.
Claim: Arctic sea ice is not melting and there is no indication that we should expect the Arctic sea summer ice to disappear completely, as predicted (Allan Astrup Jensen, 2024-02-06)
Evidence (2022-12-08): The consensus is clear – as Arctic sea ice melts, polar bears are finding it harder to hunt, mate and breed. While polar bears have shown some ability to adapt to changes in their surroundings – for example, by foraging for food on land, or swimming more to hunt for prey – scientists project that as sea ice diminishes, polar bears will find it harder to survive and populations will decline. [...] However, temperatures in the Arctic are rising nearly four times as fast as the global average, and Arctic sea ice extent has declined since 1979 for every month of the year. The chart below shows how Arctic sea ice extent has diminished in recent decades. [...] "Historically, there was actually too much sea ice in the high Arctic for bears. The multi-year sea ice can be 10 metres thick, so it stifles productivity. So there is a transient phenomenon where in some of these high Arctic areas, as it’s getting warmer and sea ice is melting, the conditions are getting to be just right.
Claim: Arctic sea ice is not melting and there is no indication that we should expect the Arctic sea summer ice to disappear completely, as predicted (Allan Astrup Jensen, 2024-02-06)
Evidence (2023-06-06): The present study conducts an updated detection and attribution analysis of the observed Arctic SIA changes across all months over the 1979–2019 period by comparing three satellite observations with the CMIP6 multi-model simulations. Previous attribution studies were mostly based on sea ice extent which is defined as the total area of all grid cells with at least 15% sea ice concentration and hence is strongly grid dependent1. Here we use SIA which is defined as the actual area covered with sea ice and is more appropriate for comparison with satellite observations than sea ice extent20, having a smaller observed uncertainty than sea ice extent21. The Arctic sea ice has been melting in all months22,23,24 but most previous studies have focused on September when the largest change occurred. Considering all calendar months and utilizing individual forcing simulations, this study finds that the response to GHG increases is detected throughout the year, explaining most of the observed SIA reduction. Further, based on the quantified GHG contribution to the observed Arctic SIA reduction, the future timing of the ice-free Arctic Ocean is projected under the different Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) emission scenarios. [...] Mahlstein, I. & Knutti, R. September Arctic sea ice predicted to disappear near 2°C global warming above present. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos.117, D06104 (2012).
Claim: Arctic sea ice is not melting and there is no indication that we should expect the Arctic sea summer ice to disappear completely, as predicted (Allan Astrup Jensen, 2024-02-06)
Evidence (2015-03-12): By 2004 the sea ice in north Greenland was too precarious for us to travel any distance north, south, or west from Qaanaaq. Sea ice is a Greenlander’s highway and the platform on which marine mammals — including walrus, ring seals, bearded seals, and polar bears — Arctic foxes, and seabirds travel, rest, breed, and hunt. "Those times we went out to Kiatak and Herbert islands, up Politiken’s Glacier, or way north to Etah and Humboldt Glacier," the Inuit hunters said, "we cannot go there anymore." In 2012, the Arctic Ocean’s sea ice shrank to a record minimum. Last year, the rate of ice loss in July averaged 40,000 square miles per day. [...] Flying north the next day to Qaanaaq, I looked down in disbelief: from Uummannaq, a village where I had spent my first years in Greenland, up to Savissivik, where we had tried to go walrus hunting, there was only open water threaded with long strings of rotting ice. As global temperatures increase, multiyear ice — ice that does not melt even in summer, once abundant in the high Arctic — is now disappearing. Finally, north of Thule Air Base and Cape York, ice had begun to form. To see white, and not the black ink of open water, was a relief. But that relief was short-lived. Greenland had entered what American glaciologist Jason Box calls "New Climate Land."
Claim: Arctic sea ice is not melting and there is no indication that we should expect the Arctic sea summer ice to disappear completely, as predicted (Allan Astrup Jensen, 2024-02-06)
Evidence (2016-09-16): Sea ice is frozen seawater that floats on the ocean surface. It forms in both the Arctic and the Antarctic in each hemisphere’s winter; it retreats in the summer, but does not completely disappear. This floating ice has a profound influence on the polar environment, influencing ocean circulation, weather, and regional climate. [...] Arctic sea ice occupies an ocean basin mostly enclosed by land. Because there is no landmass at the North Pole, sea ice extends all the way to the pole, making the ice subject to the most extreme oscillations between wintertime darkness and summertime sunlight. Likewise, because the ocean basin is surrounded by land, ice has less freedom of movement to drift into lower latitudes and melt. Sea ice also forms in areas south of the Arctic Ocean in winter, including the Sea of Okhotsk, the Bering Sea, Baffin Bay, Hudson Bay, the Greenland Sea, and the Labrador Sea. [...] Another reason is that the complete summertime disappearance of Northern Hemisphere ice would be a dramatic departure from what has occurred throughout the satellite record and likely throughout recorded history. In the Antarctic, however, sea ice already melts almost completely each summer. Even if it completely disappeared in the summer, the impact on the Earth’s climate system would likely be much smaller than a similar disappearance of Arctic ice.
Claim: Arctic sea ice is not melting and there is no indication that we should expect the Arctic sea summer ice to disappear completely, as predicted (Allan Astrup Jensen, 2024-02-06)
Evidence (2023-06-06): A new study published Tuesday in the journal Nature Communications found Arctic sea ice could disappear completely during the month of September as early as the 2030s. Even if the world makes significant cuts to planet-heating pollution today, the Arctic could still see summers free of sea ice by the 2050s, scientists reported. [...] An Arctic with no summer sea ice would send dire ripple effects around the world. The bright white ice reflects solar energy away from the Earth. When this ice melts, it exposes the darker ocean, which absorbs more heat causing additional warming – a feedback process called "Arctic amplification." [...] "We can regard the Arctic sea ice as the immune system of our body which protects our body from harmful things," Min said. "Without the protector, the Arctic’s condition will go from bad to worse quickly."
Claim: Arctic sea ice is not melting and there is no indication that we should expect the Arctic sea summer ice to disappear completely, as predicted (Allan Astrup Jensen, 2024-02-06)
Evidence (2023-05-11): Glaciers and ice sheets, large land-based formations of ice, are melting as global temperatures rise. That meltwater drains into the sea, increasing the ocean's water volume and global sea level. Melting ice has caused about two-thirds of the rise in sea level to date, one-third from land ice in Greenland and Antarctica and one third from melting ice on mountains. Ice sheets and glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica melt three ways: from above due to warming air, from the sides as they break off into the sea, and from below due to warming ocean water where the ice extends over the sea. Because of this, the rate of ice melt varies from place to place as conditions change. The Arctic is warming more quickly than the Antarctic, which explains why the ice there is thinning more quickly. However, recent research suggests that the melting of Antarctica’s ice shelves may be unstoppable—although the process may take centuries.
Claim: Arctic sea ice is not melting and there is no indication that we should expect the Arctic sea summer ice to disappear completely, as predicted (Allan Astrup Jensen, 2024-02-06)
Evidence (2024-01-12): Studies differ widely in their predictions of when summer sea ice will melt completely. Current climate models tend to underestimate the rate of sea ice retreat.10) Prior to the events of 2007, the IPCC forecasted an ice-free Arctic for the latter part of the twenty-first century.11) The panel reported that "the projected reduction [in global sea ice cover] is accelerated in the Arctic, where some models suggest that summer sea ice cover could disappear entirely in the high-emission A2 scenario in the latter part of the 21st century."12) Most studies published since the sea ice collapse of 2007 expect a dramatic reduction of summer ice by the mid-2020s. In an interview with National Geographic, Mark Serreze from the National Snow and ice Data Center (NSIDC) in Boulder, Colorado is on record saying the Arctic’s summer sea ice will fully melt around 2030. Other scientists do not expect the summer ice to survive beyond 2017.13)
Claim: Arctic sea ice is not melting and there is no indication that we should expect the Arctic sea summer ice to disappear completely, as predicted (Allan Astrup Jensen, 2024-02-06)
Evidence (2024-05-14): But the Arctic Ocean is never a balmy place, even at the height of summer. Serreze explains that historically, its summertime temperature has hovered around the melting point of snow and ice: 0°C (32°F). Current conditions enable some sea ice to persist throughout summer, and even several degrees of warming temperatures would not preclude patches of sea ice from surviving the warmest months. So, when sea ice experts discuss an ice-free Arctic summer, they mean nearly ice-free. Decades after the Arctic Ocean’s summer sea ice effectively disappears, some sea ice remnants will likely cling to coastlines along the northern edges of the Canadian Archipelago and Greenland. The location of sea ice is driven not just by latitude or temperature but by winds and ocean currents, which pile up multiyear sea ice—ice that has survived at least one melt season—along these coasts. Arctic sea ice is oldest and thickest in these regions today, and will likely persist there the longest. [...] Arctic sea ice is thinning because less ice survives summer melt seasons. Whereas ice that has survived multiple melt seasons is thick, rough, and resistant to melt, younger ice is vulnerable to storm-induced breakups. The same storm, encountering thicker ice, would likely have had less impact.
Claim: Arctic sea ice is not melting and there is no indication that we should expect the Arctic sea summer ice to disappear completely, as predicted (Allan Astrup Jensen, 2024-02-06)
Evidence (2020-10-12): Sea Ice — At 1.5 degrees Celsius warming, the IPCC special report scientists expect the Arctic Ocean to be sea ice-free one summer per century, but at 2 degrees Celsius warming, the likelihood increases to at least one ice-free summer every decade. Loss of sea ice at 1.5 degrees Celsius warming will impact the habitats of many organisms, from phytoplankton, to marine mammals like polar bears and whales, especially in the Arctic Ocean and the Western Antarctic Peninsula. [...] Impacts will vary by region due to many factors such as the ability of populations to adjust to changes in their environment, vulnerability of populations, their human-made surroundings and access to air conditioning.
Claim: Doctors murdered to protect Big Pharma profits and silence holistic health practitioners (Katryna Benson, 2023-08-23)
Evidence (2023-08-23): Conspiracy theories alleging that the pharmaceutical industry is targeting alternative medicine practitioners to silence them have proven to be popular and enduring on social media. By extension, these conspiracy theories imply that alternative medicine is more effective than conventional medicine, thus posing a threat to the pharmaceutical industry’s profits. However, claims that practices in alternative medicine provide effective treatments generally lack reliable supporting evidence derived from rigorously conducted research
Claim: Doctors murdered to protect Big Pharma profits and silence holistic health practitioners (Katryna Benson, 2023-08-23)
Evidence (2017-11-28): Of the many conspiracies of the 21st century, one of the most intriguing is the apparent systematic killing of holistic or alternative doctors. The suspected perpetrator? Rather ambiguously, Big Pharma. [...] Although it is no more than speculation (as are many of the holistic doctor murders), Holt had a particular interest in helping people who struggled financially with medical bills and increasingly promoted patients’ well-being and recovery over profit. Several times, he "[worked] with people financially" to ensure that they received the treatments they required.[4] [...] This is a particularly dark and gritty case due to the backstory that soon unfolded. While conspiracy theorists quickly jumped on the case of another alternative doctor murdered "for their willingness to stand up to Big Pharma," it seemed obvious that the leap was misjudged at best in this instance.
Claim: Doctors murdered to protect Big Pharma profits and silence holistic health practitioners (Katryna Benson, 2023-08-23)
Evidence (2018-03-26): One of the cases Elizabeth most often refers to in hers series is that of Teresa Sievers. Dr. Sievers was involved in holistic medicine and her murder was complex and mysterious enough to be featured on the CBS program "48 hours." However, the investigation ultimately ended in the arrest of her husband on the suspicion that he paid a man to kill her for a life insurance payout. The case is still working its way through the courts. Another notable case involved the brutal and premeditated killing of a Southern California doctor who combined conventional and holistic medicine, Weidong "Henry" Han. Dr. Han, along with his wife and five year old daughter, were killed by a former business partner for financial gain, as reported by the Associated Press: [...] - Jessica Colker, wife of a holistic doctor (killed by a convicted rapist recently released from jail who later turned himself in)
Claim: Doctors murdered to protect Big Pharma profits and silence holistic health practitioners (Katryna Benson, 2023-08-23)
Evidence (2017-07-24): On 16 July 2017, alternative health blogger Erin Elizabeth reported on her web site Health Nut News that Justine Ruszczyk (who primarily used her fiance's surname, Damond), a 40-year-old Australian woman living in the U.S. who was shot and killed in mid-July 2017 by Minneapolis police, was among a growing list of holistic doctors who had died under suspicious circumstances. That narrative was further twisted by the disreputable conspiracy site YourNewsWire with the headline, "Holistic Doctor, Working Against Big Pharma, Shot Dead By Police." [...] The well-known health and lifestyle coach, who was actively campaigning for people to take control of their lives and reject Big Pharma’s crippling products, joins the long list of holistic doctors and healers who have been killed in suspicious or unsolved circumstances during the past two years. [...] Although questions have been raised in news reports about Noor's and Yanez's training in relations to the deaths of the two Minnesota residents, there is no evidence to suggest that "Big Pharma" somehow influenced the two officers who responded to Damond's 911 call to target her for assassination in an ongoing conspiracy to kill off holistic healers.
Claim: Doctors murdered to protect Big Pharma profits and silence holistic health practitioners (Katryna Benson, 2023-08-23)
Evidence (2023-08-23): Inadequate support: No evidence was provided to show that the doctors’ deaths were motivated by a desire to protect Big Pharma profits or silence holistic health practitioners, as suggested. [...] Benson’s claim isn’t new. Conspiracy theories alleging that doctors who practiced alternative medicine were murdered to protect "Big Pharma" profits can be traced back to at least 2015 and have continued since then, according to multiple fact-checks by Snopes over the years. However, there’s no evidence that the doctors discussed in the news segment were murdered to protect "Big Pharma", and some of the doctors named in the video didn’t practice alternative medicine in the first place.
Claim: Doctors murdered to protect Big Pharma profits and silence holistic health practitioners (Katryna Benson, 2023-08-23)
Evidence (2017-02-28): This was November, 2016, just two months before he would be killed off by Big Pharma and the medical establishment. Here is a picture of my dad during the long road trip down to Florida, at a stop-over visit with my aunt and cousins in Illinois.