copenlu/druid huggingface dataset:
Claim: “Myocarditis and pericarditis only occur after vaccination and not after COVID-19 infection.” (Marina Zhang, 2024-06-03)
Evidence (2024-06-28): Ling, R. R. et al. Myopericarditis following COVID-19 vaccination and non-COVID-19 vaccination: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Lancet Respiratory Med.10, 679–688 (2022). [...] Pillay, J. et al. Incidence, risk factors, natural history, and hypothesised mechanisms of myocarditis and pericarditis following covid-19 vaccination: living evidence syntheses and review. BMJ e069445 https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj-2021-069445 (2022). [...] Stowe, J., Miller, E., Andrews, N. & Whitaker, H. J. Risk of myocarditis and pericarditis after a COVID-19 mRNA vaccine booster and after COVID-19 in those with and without prior SARS-CoV-2 infection: a self-controlled case series analysis in England. PLoS Med.20, e1004245 (2023).
Claim: “Myocarditis and pericarditis only occur after vaccination and not after COVID-19 infection.” (Marina Zhang, 2024-06-03)
Evidence (2022-07-05): - Law, Y. M., Lal, A. K., Chen, S., Čiháková, D., Cooper, L. T., Jr, Deshpande, S., Godown, J., Grosse-Wortmann, L., Robinson, J. D., Towbin, J. A., & American Heart Association Pediatric Heart Failure and Transplantation Committee of the Council on Lifelong Congenital Heart Disease and Heart Health in the Young and Stroke Council (2021). Diagnosis and Management of Myocarditis in Children: A Scientific Statement from the American Heart Association. Circulation, 144(6), e123–e135. https://doi.org/10.1161/CIR.0000000000001001 - Patone, M., Mei, X. W., Handunnetthi, L., Dixon, S., Zaccardi, F., Shankar-Hari, M., Watkinson, P., Khunti, K., Harnden, A., Coupland, C., Channon, K. M., Mills, N. L., Sheikh, A., & Hippisley-Cox, J. (2022). Risks of myocarditis, pericarditis, and cardiac arrhythmias associated with COVID-19 vaccination or SARS-CoV-2 infection. Nature Medicine, 28(2), 410–422. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-021-01630-0 - Ho, J. S., Sia, C.-H., Chan, M. Y., Lin, W., & Wong, R. C. (2020). Coronavirus-induced myocarditis: A meta-summary of cases. Heart & Lung: The Journal of Critical Care, 49(6), 681–685. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.hrtlng.2020.08.013 - Klamer, T. A., Linschoten, M., & Asselbergs, F. W. (2022). The benefit of vaccination against COVID-19 outweighs the potential risk of myocarditis and pericarditis.
Claim: “Myocarditis and pericarditis only occur after vaccination and not after COVID-19 infection.” (Marina Zhang, 2024-06-03)
Evidence (2021-12-14): Whereas myocarditis is a specific form of cardiac inflammation, pericarditis reflects inflammation localized to the pericardium, and the occurrence of cardiac arrhythmias, although associated with both, is not a specific indictor of cardiac inflammation. Thus, neither pericarditis nor any category of cardiac arrhythmia were associated specifically with COVID-19 vaccination10,11,12. Myocarditis is underdiagnosed in practice13, with clinical bias being directed towards myocardial ischemia or infarction. Thus, our use of diagnostic codes for myocarditis from routine data suggest that the ascertainment of cardiac inflammation after COVID-19 vaccination is likely to be under- rather than over-represented14,15. [...] Witberg, G. et al. Myocarditis after Covid-19 vaccination in a large health care organization. N. Engl. J. Med. https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2110737 (2021).
Claim: “Myocarditis and pericarditis only occur after vaccination and not after COVID-19 infection.” (Marina Zhang, 2024-06-03)
Evidence (2021-12-23): Myocarditis and/or pericarditis following vaccination with mRNA and other COVID-19 vaccines Rare cases of myocarditis (inflammation of the heart muscle) and/or pericarditis (inflammation of the lining around the heart) have been reported following vaccination with mRNA and protein subunit COVID-19 vaccines. [...] Selected references - Abraham N, Spruin S, Rossi T, Fireman B, Zafack J, Blaser C, et al. Myocarditis and/or Pericarditis Risk After mRNA COVID-19 Vaccination: A Canadian Head to Head Comparison of BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 Vaccines. JVAC-D-21-03106, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3988612 - AstraZeneca Canada Inc. Product monograph - Evusheld™. April 14, 2022.
Claim: Forward projections of solar cyclicity imply the next few decades may be marked by global cooling rather than warming, despite continuing CO2 emissions. (Craig Idso, Robert Carter, S. Fred Singer, 2016-01-01)
Evidence (2016-01-01): It is difficult to project solar activity, but research shows that even a substantial lull in solar activity would be far too weak to counteract human-caused global warming.
Claim: Forward projections of solar cyclicity imply the next few decades may be marked by global cooling rather than warming, despite continuing CO2 emissions. (Craig Idso, Robert Carter, S. Fred Singer, 2016-01-01)
Evidence (2021-09-10): "(The researchers) thought that the cooling effect of these aerosols from burning fossil fuels that would reflect sunlight back to space would be much stronger than the warming effects of the greenhouse gas," Hausfather said. [...] Now the model is proven to be wrong. It's a consensus among climate scientists that the planet is not cooling—instead it's warming at an alarming rate. [...] Despite the despair projected by many climate scientists and futurists, there's still hope. If global emissions can be brought down to zero, Hausfather said the best climate model estimates illustrate that the world will stop warming.
Claim: Forward projections of solar cyclicity imply the next few decades may be marked by global cooling rather than warming, despite continuing CO2 emissions. (Craig Idso, Robert Carter, S. Fred Singer, 2016-01-01)
Evidence (2024-01-01): Scientists from around the world serve as part of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). These scientists have found that from 1900-2020, the world's surface air temperature increased an average of 1.1° Celsius (nearly 2°F) due to burning fossil fuels that releases carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. This may not sound like very much change, but this warming is unprecedented in over 2000 years of records. Even one degree can impact the planet in many ways. Climate models predict that Earth's global average temperature will rise an additional 4° C (7.2° F) during the 21st Century if greenhouse gas levels continue to rise at present levels. Without swift action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, models project that holding global average temperatures to within a 1.5-2.0°C (2.7-3.6°F) increase may no longer be possible.
Claim: Forward projections of solar cyclicity imply the next few decades may be marked by global cooling rather than warming, despite continuing CO2 emissions. (Craig Idso, Robert Carter, S. Fred Singer, 2016-01-01)
Evidence (2017-01-01): The magnitude of climate change beyond the next few decades will depend primarily on the amount of greenhouse gases (especially carbon dioxide) emitted globally. Without major reductions in emissions, the increase in annual average global temperature relative to preindustrial times could reach 9°F (5°C) or more by the end of this century. With significant reductions in emissions, the increase in annual average global temperature could be limited to 3.6°F (2°C) or less. [...] Warming and associated climate effects from CO2 emissions persist for decades to millennia. In the near-term, changes in climate are determined by past and present greenhouse gas emissions modified by natural variability. Reducing net emissions of CO2 is necessary to limit near-term climate change and long-term warming. Other greenhouse gases (e.g., methane) and black carbon aerosols exert stronger warming effects than CO2 on a per ton basis, but they do not persist as long in the atmosphere (Ch. 2); therefore, mitigation of non-CO2 species contributes substantially to near-term cooling benefits but cannot be relied upon for ultimate stabilization goals. (Very high confidence) (Ch. 14)
Claim: Forward projections of solar cyclicity imply the next few decades may be marked by global cooling rather than warming, despite continuing CO2 emissions. (Craig Idso, Robert Carter, S. Fred Singer, 2016-01-01)
Evidence (2023-12-19): Furthermore, solar cycle has a separate external forcing than CO2. The response to this external forcing is amplified by the climate feedback processes of the Earth system. It is hoped that by examining the solar-cycle response at the Earth’s surface, we can estimate the effect of the climate feedback involved, and hence the climate sensitivity of the Earth system. This is a different approach than some of the current ones, for example, of using the effect of Arctic snow-albedo12, or tropical low clouds13,14 to provide a constraint on the climate sensitivity (ECS in the cited cases). Using a component of the feedback process to constrain ECS or TCR requires an additional assumption that the other feedback components are "unbiased", e.g. not compensating9. This structural uncertainty has so far not been assessed.
Claim: Forward projections of solar cyclicity imply the next few decades may be marked by global cooling rather than warming, despite continuing CO2 emissions. (Craig Idso, Robert Carter, S. Fred Singer, 2016-01-01)
Evidence (2023-03-17): Brehm N, Bayliss A, Christl M et al. (2021) Eleven-year solar cycles over the last millennium revealed by radiocarbon in tree rings. Nat Geosci 14:10–15. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-020-00674-0 [...] Petrovay K (2020) Solar cycle prediction. Living Rev Sol Phys 17:2. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z. arXiv:1907.02107 [astro-ph.SR] [...] Usoskin IG, Solanki SK, Krivova N et al. (2021) Solar cyclic activity over the last millennium reconstructed from annual 14C data. Astron Astrophys 649:A141. https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/202140711
Claim: Forward projections of solar cyclicity imply the next few decades may be marked by global cooling rather than warming, despite continuing CO2 emissions. (Craig Idso, Robert Carter, S. Fred Singer, 2016-01-01)
Evidence (2023-10-24): As things stand, demand for fossil fuels is set to remain far too high to keep within reach the Paris Agreement goal of limiting the rise in average global temperatures to 1.5 °C. This risks not only worsening climate impacts after a year of record-breaking heat, but also undermining the security of the energy system, which was built for a cooler world with less extreme weather events. Bending the emissions curve onto a path consistent with 1.5 °C remains possible but very difficult. The costs of inaction could be enormous: despite the impressive clean energy growth based on today’s policy settings, global emissions would remain high enough to push up global average temperatures by around 2.4 °C this century, well above the key threshold set out in the Paris Agreement.
Claim: Forward projections of solar cyclicity imply the next few decades may be marked by global cooling rather than warming, despite continuing CO2 emissions. (Craig Idso, Robert Carter, S. Fred Singer, 2016-01-01)
Evidence (2024-01-01): In the NZE, CO2 emissions are net zero in 2050 globally and there are rapid reductions in all non-CO2 emissions (such as methane). The rise in temperature reaches a maximum level of just over 1.5 °C around 2050. The temperature then starts to decline slowly as a result of continued reductions in non-CO2 emissions, and by 2100 the rise in temperature has fallen to around 1.4 °C. In the SDS, CO2 emissions drop to zero around 2070 and there are rapid reductions in non‑CO2 emissions. The 1.5 °C level is exceeded in the early 2030s and the rise in temperature peaks at just under 1.7 °C around 2050.4 The SDS is in line with the Paris Agreement objective of "holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C", while the NZE goes further to be in line with the Paris Agreement objective of "pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C". [...] All scenarios in the WEO-2021 have a similar temperature rise over the 2021-2030 period and a similar year in which 1.5 °C warming is exceeded. This results from a balance between reductions in emissions of gases that have a large near-term warming effect on the climate (such as methane) and reductions in aerosols and gases that have a large near-term cooling effect on the climate (such as sulphur dioxide).
Claim: Forward projections of solar cyclicity imply the next few decades may be marked by global cooling rather than warming, despite continuing CO2 emissions. (Craig Idso, Robert Carter, S. Fred Singer, 2016-01-01)
Evidence (2019-06-27): While regional and seasonal effects might be larger, the expected global temperature response to a future grand solar minimum similar to the Maunder Minimum is a cooling of about 0.1°C. It should be pointed out that this cooling would occur on the background of current anthropogenic warming which is about a factor of 10 larger[…] It is also clear from these numbers that a future grand solar minimum (which would last only for a few decades anyway) would not save us from global warming, as we have shown in a scientific paper* and explained in this RealClimate post. The marginal temperature differences between warming scenarios with and without a future Maunder Minimum is illustrated here: [...] Forward projections of solar variability are fraught with deep uncertainties, as exemplified by the last solar minimum. Satellite observations show this to be the weakest solar cycle in over a century. [...] The claim that the Earth may cool in coming decades due to solar variability is incorrect (even in the word "may"). It has no bearing in any climate science, model projections, or basic physical theory. The forcing from solar variability to the heat content of the Earth system is small relative to the accelerating forcing provided by human CO2 emissions.
Claim: Forward projections of solar cyclicity imply the next few decades may be marked by global cooling rather than warming, despite continuing CO2 emissions. (Craig Idso, Robert Carter, S. Fred Singer, 2016-01-01)
Evidence (2019-12-16): From the 1940s to the 1970s, the global surface temperature decreased very slightly. This probably occurred because over that time period the cooling effect from human produced aerosols was slightly larger than the warming effect from human produced greenhouse gasses. A minority of scientists predicted that the cooling effect from increasing aerosols would continue to outweigh the warming effect from increasing greenhouse gasses and that the climate would continue to cool. This idea received some public attention when Time magazine published an article titled "Another Ice Age?" in 1974 (the cover of Time shown [above] is a fake). Regardless, this article did not represent the views of the majority of the scientific literature at the time1. For example, a 1975 paper, published by Wallace Broecker2 contained the following abstract: "If man-made dust is unimportant as a major cause of climatic change, then a strong case can be made that the present cooling trend will, within a decade or so, give way to a pronounced warming induced by carbon dioxide. By analogy with similar events in the past, the natural climatic cooling which, since 1940, has more than compensated for the carbon dioxide effect, will soon bottom out. Once this happens, the exponential rise in the atmospheric carbon dioxide content will tend to become a significant factor and by early in the next century will have driven the mean planetary temperature beyond the limits experienced during the last 1000 years."
Claim: Forward projections of solar cyclicity imply the next few decades may be marked by global cooling rather than warming, despite continuing CO2 emissions. (Craig Idso, Robert Carter, S. Fred Singer, 2016-01-01)
Evidence (2010-06-03): Throughout its long history, Earth has warmed and cooled time and again. Climate has changed when the planet received more or less sunlight due to subtle shifts in its orbit, as the atmosphere or surface changed, or when the Sun’s energy varied. But in the past century, another force has started to influence Earth’s climate: humanity. [...] Each cycle exhibits subtle differences in intensity and duration. As of early 2010, the solar brightness since 2005 has been slightly lower, not higher, than it was during the previous 11-year minimum in solar activity, which occurred in the late 1990s. This implies that the Sun’s impact between 2005 and 2010 might have been to slightly decrease the warming that greenhouse emissions alone would have caused. [...] It takes decades to centuries for Earth to fully react to increases in greenhouse gases. Carbon dioxide, among other greenhouse gases, will remain in the atmosphere long after emissions are reduced, contributing to continuing warming. In addition, as Earth has warmed, much of the excess energy has gone into heating the upper layers of the ocean. Like a hot water bottle on a cold night, the heated ocean will continue warming the lower atmosphere well after greenhouse gases have stopped increasing.
Claim: Forward projections of solar cyclicity imply the next few decades may be marked by global cooling rather than warming, despite continuing CO2 emissions. (Craig Idso, Robert Carter, S. Fred Singer, 2016-01-01)
Evidence (2023-12-01): The Earth’s climate is changing and the global climate is projected to continue to change over this century and beyond. The magnitude of climate change beyond the next few decades will depend primarily on the amount of greenhouse (heat-trapping) gases emitted globally and on the remaining uncertainty in the sensitivity of the Earth’s climate to those emissions. With significant reductions in the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs), global annual averaged temperature rise could be limited to 2°C or less. However, without major reductions in these emissions, the increase in annual average global temperatures, relative to preindustrial times, could reach 5°C or more by the end of this century. [...] Uncertainty exists for any future projection. While advances continue to be made in the understanding of climate physics and the response of the climate system to increases in greenhouse gases, many uncertainties are likely to persist. The rate of future global warming depends on future emissions, feedback processes that dampen or reinforce disturbances to the climate system, and unpredictable natural influences on climate, like volcanic eruptions. Uncertain processes that will affect how fast the world warms for a given emissions pathway are dominated by cloud formation, but also include water vapor and ice feedbacks, ocean circulation changes, and natural cycles of greenhouse gases. Although information from past climate changes largely corroborates model calculations, this is also can have a degree of uncertainty due to potentially important factors about which we have incomplete information.
Claim: Forward projections of solar cyclicity imply the next few decades may be marked by global cooling rather than warming, despite continuing CO2 emissions. (Craig Idso, Robert Carter, S. Fred Singer, 2016-01-01)
Evidence (2021-10-11): These ice ages are triggered and ended by slow changes in the Earth’s orbit. But changing atmospheric concentrations of CO2 also plays a key role in driving both cooling during the onset of ice ages and warming at their end. [...] The effect of the orbital features on the total sunlight reaching the Earth is almost zero; the sunshine is just moved between areas and seasons. But, the whole world cools into an ice age, and the whole world warms coming out of an ice age, despite half the world getting less sun when the other half gets more. And, so far, all the explanations of this require the effects of the CO2, which beautifully explain it. [...] In some ways, however, this is exactly what we would expect; there were no humans burning fossil fuels during the end of the last ice age, so CO2 served more as a feedback to orbital changes rather than the climate forcing that it is today.
Claim: Forward projections of solar cyclicity imply the next few decades may be marked by global cooling rather than warming, despite continuing CO2 emissions. (Craig Idso, Robert Carter, S. Fred Singer, 2016-01-01)
Evidence (2014-04-23): Beyond the next few decades, how much the climate changes will depend primarily on the amount of greenhouse gases emitted into the atmosphere; how much of those greenhouse gases are absorbed by the ocean, the biosphere, and other sinks; and how sensitive Earth’s climate is to those emissions.23 Climate sensitivity is typically defined as the long-term change that would result from a doubling of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere relative to preindustrial levels; its exact value is uncertain due to the interconnected nature of the land–atmosphere–ocean system. Changes in one aspect of the system can lead to self-reinforcing cycles that can either amplify or weaken the climate system’s responses to human and natural influences, creating a positive feedback or self-reinforcing cycle in the first case and a negative feedback in the second.18 These feedbacks operate on a range of timescales from very short (essentially instantaneous) to very long (centuries). While there are uncertainties associated with modeling some of these feedbacks,24,25 the most up-to-date scientific assessment shows that the net effect of these feedbacks over the industrial era has been to amplify human-induced warming, and this amplification will continue over coming decades18 (see Box 2.3).
Claim: Forward projections of solar cyclicity imply the next few decades may be marked by global cooling rather than warming, despite continuing CO2 emissions. (Craig Idso, Robert Carter, S. Fred Singer, 2016-01-01)
Evidence (2024-07-01): A summary of radiative forcings of climate in 2019 resulting from the increases in the principal long-lived and short-lived GHGs from human activities since 1750 is shown in Figure Q17-1. Positive forcings lead to warming and negative forcings lead to cooling of Earth’s surface. Climate forcings also lead to other changes, for example reductions in glacier and sea-ice extent, variations in precipitation patterns, and more extreme weather events. International climate assessments conclude that much of the observed surface warming and changes in other climate parameters over the last several decades are due to increases in the atmospheric abundances of CO2 and other GHGs, which result from a variety of human activities. [...] For example, model projections driven by increases in the atmospheric abundance of GHGs over the coming decades show a strengthening in the global-scale atmospheric circulation that brings air from the troposphere into the stratosphere in the tropics, moves stratospheric air poleward into both hemispheres, and then returns air to the troposphere at middle to high latitudes. These circulation changes will significantly alter the global distribution of ozone and the atmospheric lifetimes of ODSs and other long-lived gases (see Q6). Also, while Earth’s surface is expected to continue to warm in response to positive radiative forcing of climate from GHGs (see Q17), the stratosphere is expected to continue to cool. A colder upper stratosphere leads to increases in ozone because lower temperatures slow down the gas-phase reactions responsible for ozone loss. Conversely, colder conditions at lower altitudes in the polar stratosphere have the potential to exacerbate ozone loss, especially if the presence of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) increases.
Claim: Forward projections of solar cyclicity imply the next few decades may be marked by global cooling rather than warming, despite continuing CO2 emissions. (Craig Idso, Robert Carter, S. Fred Singer, 2016-01-01)
Evidence (2022-11-11): Vaittinada Ayar, P., Bopp, L., Christian, J. R., Ilyina, T., Krasting, J. P., Séférian, R., Tsujino, H., Watanabe, M., Yool, A., and Tjiputra, J.: Contrasting projections of the ENSO-driven CO2 flux variability in the equatorial Pacific under high-warming scenario, Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1097–1118, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1097-2022, 2022.