copenlu/druid huggingface dataset:
Claim: Economy growing at a robust rate, with 7.4% GDP growth forecast for FY 2018-19. (Govt. of India, 2018-05-26)
Evidence (2022-05-18): Persistent inflation, supply chain constraints, the continuing pandemic and war in Ukraine signal a significant slowdown in global GDP growth this year but not a worldwide recession. The litany of risks to the global economy is now well known: Central bank tightening, ongoing supply chain disruptions, persistent inflation, the lingering effects of a pandemic and a war in Eastern Europe. In normal times, any one of these could drag down global growth—but these aren’t normal times. [...] There are some bright spots. "In Asia, outside of China, we generally see healthy economic activity, and this region looks to outperform to some degree," says Ahya. India will see a slight stepdown from 2021 but is still on pace for 7.4% growth. GDP growth for Korea and Taiwan remains healthy. And while Japan’s 1.9% estimated growth for this year is modest, it is an improvement over last year.
Claim: Economy growing at a robust rate, with 7.4% GDP growth forecast for FY 2018-19. (Govt. of India, 2018-05-26)
Evidence (2022-12-14): The latest supplement to the Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2022 says the Philippine economy will grow 7.4% in 2022, up from the bank’s September forecast of 6.5%. Gross domestic product (GDP) growth for 2023 is expected to slow to 6.0% from the previous forecast of 6.3%. [...] Upward pressures on commodity prices, including oil which will weigh heavily on the predominantly oil-importing Philippines, are expected to be sustained in 2023 with continued uncertainty arising from the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Inflation is expected to quicken to 5.7% this year from the previous forecast of 5.3% before slowing in 2023, with the forecast for next year maintained at 4.3%. The government has said that it expects to continue to invest on its flagship infrastructure projects to spur employment and lay the foundations for a more vibrant and resilient economy. ADB is helping finance some of these priority projects, such as the Malolos Clark Railway Project and South Commuter Railway Project, both part of the North–South Commuter Railway System that aims to provide a safe, fast, and efficient transportation link between Metro Manila and northern and southern Luzon provinces.
Claim: Economy growing at a robust rate, with 7.4% GDP growth forecast for FY 2018-19. (Govt. of India, 2018-05-26)
Evidence (2023-02-15): Tax expenditures have a large effect on the federal budget. In fiscal year 2023, the value of the more than 200 tax expenditures in the individual and corporate income tax systems (including their effects on payroll taxes) is estimated to be $1.9 trillion, or 7.4 percent of GDP.27 That amount, which was calculated by CBO on the basis of estimates prepared by JCT, equals about 40 percent of all federal revenues in 2023 and exceeds projected outlays for all discretionary programs combined (see Figure 1-6). [...] Changes in fiscal policies also affect the economy in the longer term. In CBO’s projections, high and rising levels of federal borrowing reduce private investment activity in later years. In addition, the expiration of the temporary provisions of the 2017 tax act (P.L. 115-97)—including the expiration of most of the provisions affecting individual income taxes at the end of 2025 and the phaseout of bonus depreciation by the end of 2026—is projected to slow economic growth. [...] The Survey of Professional Forecasters
Claim: Economy growing at a robust rate, with 7.4% GDP growth forecast for FY 2018-19. (Govt. of India, 2018-05-26)
Evidence (2024-09-18): In addition, businesses appear to be ramping up investment, which could have positive productivity effects. Fixed capital formation grew 8.3% in the six months to March, though the year-ago growth stood at a more modest 2.6%.9 Production of capital goods, an indicator of business investment demand, dropped in May due to the flooding, but the April to May average was still up 1.8% from the previous quarter and up 10.0% from a year earlier.10 Similarly, the volume of imported capital goods was weak in May, but the April to May average shows it grew 3.6% from the previous quarter and 15.4% over the previous year.11 [...] Part of the change is that the labor market continues to tighten more than expected, which is likely inflationary. Inflation expectations, at 6.4%, for the next 12 months, are also well above the inflation target of 3%.18 For comparison, inflation expectations were below 5% at the end of 2019. However, a large concern seems to be coming from the country’s fiscal position despite the recently implemented fiscal framework. The concern is one of fiscal dominance, where rising government debt levels impede the central bank’s ability to control inflation.
Claim: Economy growing at a robust rate, with 7.4% GDP growth forecast for FY 2018-19. (Govt. of India, 2018-05-26)
Evidence (2020-06-03): As the events of 2019 unfolded amid rising and intensifying global tensions, the effects began to show up in the economic data and forecasts. Each year, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) produces biannual economic forecasts for global GDP and growth for the current year and the following one. Back in October 2018 the IMF projected global economic growth for 2019 to be 3.7%—a rate similar to the average for the period spanning 2011 to 2018. The IMF’s October 2018 estimate used economic data that showed the upswing in growth that had started in late 2016 and lasted for approximately 2 years. What the October 2018 estimate could not capture was the gradual slowing of the global economy that had begun in the second half of 2018. By April 2019, however, the data started reflecting this slowdown, and the IMF revised its estimate for 2019 growth down to 3.3%—0.4 percentage point lower than its October 2018 estimate. Further global trade and geopolitical tensions combined with macroeconomic and financial stress in emerging markets throughout 2019 prompted the IMF in October 2019 to further downgrade its growth estimate to 3.0%. [...] Data source: National Bureau of Statistics (China)
Claim: Economy growing at a robust rate, with 7.4% GDP growth forecast for FY 2018-19. (Govt. of India, 2018-05-26)
Evidence (2022-01-01): In 2008, during the financial crisis, the government budget deficit hit 5.3% of GDP. Following a protracted recession from 2009 to 2013, during which unemployment doubled to 7.4% and household consumption contracted for four consecutive years, economic growth began inching forward in 2014. Since 2010, Prime Minister Mark RUTTE’s government has implemented significant austerity measures to improve public finances and has instituted broad structural reforms in key policy areas, including the labor market, the housing sector, the energy market, and the pension system. In 2017, the government budget returned to a surplus of 0.7% of GDP, with economic growth of 3.2%, and GDP per capita finally surpassed pre-crisis levels. The fiscal policy announced by the new government in the 2018-2021 coalition plans for increases in government consumption and public investment, fueling domestic demand and household consumption and investment. The new government’s policy also plans to increase demand for workers in the public and private sector, forecasting a further decline in the unemployment rate, which hit 4.8% in 2017.
Claim: Economy growing at a robust rate, with 7.4% GDP growth forecast for FY 2018-19. (Govt. of India, 2018-05-26)
Evidence (2024-03-06): The implications of our central forecast 5.4 In our central forecast, the fiscal mandate and the Government’s supplementary target are met by historically small and historically large margins, respectively, and the welfare cap is on course to be missed: [...] Table A.1: Economy forecast [...] The latest update of our forecasts was published on the 13 March 2019 in the March 2019 Economic and fiscal outlook. Read the overview or the Executive summary.
Claim: Economy growing at a robust rate, with 7.4% GDP growth forecast for FY 2018-19. (Govt. of India, 2018-05-26)
Evidence (2020-07-30): Update on economic and monetary developments [...] All rights reserved. Reproduction for educational and non-commercial purposes is permitted provided that the source is acknowledged. [...] - For more details, see the article entitled "The economic impact of population ageing and pension reforms", Economic Bulletin, Issue 2, ECB, 2018, and the article entitled "Labour supply and employment growth", Economic Bulletin, Issue 1, ECB, 2018.
Claim: Economy growing at a robust rate, with 7.4% GDP growth forecast for FY 2018-19. (Govt. of India, 2018-05-26)
Evidence (2019-02-06): Despite weakness in the fourth quarter, we expect growth to rebound in 2019Q1 and 2019Q2 on the back of favourable fiscal and monetary policies. As expected, the FY2019/20 Union Budget, presented on 1 February to Parliament, contains a number income support programs. One of the most noteworthy measures is a farmer income support program of 75bn INR (USD 10.5bn), which is broken down in trances of 20bn for the fiscal 2019/20 and 55bn for fiscal 2020/21. See here a link to the Union Budget and our India 2019 Economic Outlook. Ultimately, we revise downward our expected GDP growth rate for fiscal 2018/19 from 7.4% to 7.1% (Figure 8). [...] The expected slowdown is not surprising given the disappointing global economic data, which also has repercussions for India’s external sector. On the internal front, we see increasing weakness in private consumption and industrial production, whereas the services sector seems to be holding up quite well. Ultimately, we revise downward our expected GDP growth rate for fiscal 2018/19 from 7.4% to 7.1%.
Claim: Economy growing at a robust rate, with 7.4% GDP growth forecast for FY 2018-19. (Govt. of India, 2018-05-26)
Evidence (2019-03-20): The first claim is that ‘economy growing at a robust rate, with 7.4% GDP growth forecast for FY 2018-19’. [...] The Global Economic Prospects report of the World Bank states that ‘India’s GDP is forecast to grow by 7.3% in FY2018-19 and 7.5% thereafter’. A response in Lok Sabha from December 2018 states that ‘the growth rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at constant (2011-12) prices for India in second quarter (July-September) of 2018-19 was 7.1%, higher as compared to the growth of 6.3% recorded in the second quarter of the previous year. The growth rate of GDP in the first quarter (April-June) of 2018-19 was 8.2%. Despite higher crude oil prices and weaker rupee, the economy grew at a robust rate of 7.6% in the first half of 2018-19’.
Claim: Economy growing at a robust rate, with 7.4% GDP growth forecast for FY 2018-19. (Govt. of India, 2018-05-26)
Evidence (2024-07-17): Rwanda's economy has remained resilient and adaptable despite challenging external and domestic factors, achieving a 7.6% growth rate in the first three quarters of 2023. GDP growth is expected to regain momentum in 2024–26, with a projected average growth of 7.2%. The services sector sustained domestic demand, and the rebound of the industrial sector contributed to the robust growth and the positive economic trajectory. Rwanda’s public-sector-led development model has shown its limitations, with public debt increasing significantly in recent years. The country’s heavy reliance on large public investments (at 13% of GDP in 2019) has led to substantial fiscal deficits, financed through external borrowing. Consequently, the debt-to-GDP ratio rose to 56.7% in 2019 (from 19.4% in 2010) and was estimated to have reached 71% of GDP in 2020, following an increase in borrowing needs due to the pandemic. External financing through grants and concessional and non-concessional borrowing has played a key role in financing public investments. Going forward, the private sector looks set to play a bigger role in helping to ensure economic growth. Low domestic savings, a shortage of skills, and the high cost of energy are some of the major constraints to private investment. Stronger dynamism in the private sector will help to sustain high investment rates and accelerate growth. Promoting domestic savings is critical, along with inclusive growth. [...] Last Updated: Apr 03, 2024
Claim: Economy growing at a robust rate, with 7.4% GDP growth forecast for FY 2018-19. (Govt. of India, 2018-05-26)
Evidence (2024-10-09): For further detail see NHE Tables in downloads below. [...] For further detail see NHE projections 2023-2032 in downloads below. [...] For further detail, see health expenditures by state of residence in downloads below.
Claim: Economy growing at a robust rate, with 7.4% GDP growth forecast for FY 2018-19. (Govt. of India, 2018-05-26)
Evidence (2024-04-15): Annual growth is expected to average only 1.7 percent y-o-y over the medium term as global demand weakens and fiscal austerity limits capital investments. Mining, tourism, and private investment in hospitality capacity and infrastructure are expected to drive growth. External account balances are expected to slightly deteriorate as tourism and remittances growth is expected to slow amid weaker economic conditions in the US and UK, partially offset by reduced spending on imports in the context of lower commodity prices. [...] The fiscal account is expected to reverse to surplus over the medium term as a result of improvements in tax revenue and prudent spending. Spending is expected to decline slightly due to lower interest payments. Public debt is projected to remain on a downward trajectory, declining to 65.9 percent of GDP by 2026. Gross reserves are expected to remain at healthy levels. Significant downside risks to the economic outlook include a possible deeper-than-expected global economic slowdown. Further tightening of financial market conditions could raise the cost of borrowing, curtail private investments, and derail longer-term growth, climate change adaptation, and debt objectives. Worsening crime, social unrest, and natural hazards could also impair growth and poverty reduction.
Claim: Economy growing at a robust rate, with 7.4% GDP growth forecast for FY 2018-19. (Govt. of India, 2018-05-26)
Evidence (2024-03-26): India has also become an increasingly attractive location for multinationals across a wide range of industries, with foreign direct investment inflows (FDI) having reached a new record high of USD 85 billion in the 2021-22 fiscal year. [...] Rapid growth was also evident in key segments of the service sector, with output in the financial, real estate and professional services sector growing by 12.2% y/y in the April-June quarter, while output in trade, hotels, transport and communications services up by 9.2% y/y. [...] The acceleration of foreign direct investment inflows into India over the past decade reflects the favourable long-term growth outlook for the Indian economy, helped by a youthful demographic profile and rapidly rising urban household incomes. India's nominal GDP measured in USD terms is forecast to rise from USD 3.5 trillion in 2022 to USD 7.3 trillion by 2030. This rapid pace of economic expansion would result in the size of the Indian GDP exceeding Japanese GDP by 2030, making India the second largest economy in the Asia-Pacific region. By 2022, the size of Indian GDP had already become larger than the GDP of the UK and also France. By 2030, India's GDP is also forecast to surpass Germany.
Claim: Economy growing at a robust rate, with 7.4% GDP growth forecast for FY 2018-19. (Govt. of India, 2018-05-26)
Evidence (2023-01-19): Medicare Spending Grew More Slowly in the Past Decade than in Decades Prior but Faster Growth Is Projected in the Coming Years [...] - The level of growth in the economy, which affects Medicare’s revenue from payroll tax contributions: economic growth that leads to higher employment and wages boosts revenue to the trust fund, while an economic downturn can have the opposite effect. [...] This work was supported in part by Arnold Ventures. KFF maintains full editorial control over all of its policy analysis, polling, and journalism activities.
Claim: Economy growing at a robust rate, with 7.4% GDP growth forecast for FY 2018-19. (Govt. of India, 2018-05-26)
Evidence (2024-10-04): Geopolitical tensions, particularly in regions like Russia-Ukraine and the Middle East, continue to heighten risk assessments. This is prompting insurers to scrutinize things like cyber, political, and marine exposure more meticulously.16 [...] For example, a recent Deloitte FSI Predictions article revealed that businesses across all industries are investing in and deploying AI,31 and the liabilities arising from its use and development can potentially be massive for non-life insurers.32 The research predicts that by 2032, insurers could potentially generate approximately US$4.7 billion in annual global premiums from AI-related insurance, yielding a robust compounded annual growth rate of around 80%.33 [...] Higher interest rate levels are also fueling better investment yields for life carriers, which is expected to boost profitability through 2025.46
Claim: Farm credit target has been raised to a record high of 11 lakh crore rupees for 2018-19. (Govt. of India, 2018-05-26)
Evidence (2018-05-26): In an infographic published by the government on the 48-months portal, there are three claims related to the goal of doubling farmer’s incomes. The claims pertain to the soil health cards, e-NAM and farm credit. The following article is a fact check of these claims.
Claim: Farm credit target has been raised to a record high of 11 lakh crore rupees for 2018-19. (Govt. of India, 2018-05-26)
Evidence (2018-01-24): Budget 2018: The farm credit target is likely to be raised by a whopping Rs 1 lakh crore to a record Rs 11 lakh crore in the Budget 2018-19 to improve credit flow in the agriculture sector, according to sources. In the current fiscal, the government has kept a credit target of Rs 10 lakh crore. Of which, Rs 6.25 lakh crore has already been disbursed in the first six months till September 2017, the government data showed. "The government’s priority is agriculture. There is a possibility that the credit disbursal target for the agriculture sector will further be increased to Rs 11 lakh crore for the next fiscal," sources said. Since credit is a critical input in achieving higher farm output, the institutional credit will help delink farmers from non-institutional sources of credit where they are compelled to borrow at usurious rates of interest, they said. Normally, farm loan attracts an interest rate of 9 per cent. But the government has been providing interest subvention to make available short-term farm credit at an affordable rate and help boost farm output. The government is providing 2 per cent interest subsidy to ensure farmers get short-term farm loan of up to Rs 3 lakh at an effective rate of 7 per cent per annum.
Claim: Farm credit target has been raised to a record high of 11 lakh crore rupees for 2018-19. (Govt. of India, 2018-05-26)
Evidence (2024-10-09): Foretelling A Rs 8 Lakh Crore Opportunity
Claim: Farm credit target has been raised to a record high of 11 lakh crore rupees for 2018-19. (Govt. of India, 2018-05-26)
Evidence (2018-02-01): NEW DELHI: In a major bonanza to farmers, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley on Thursday announced fixing support price of Kharif crops like paddy at least 50 per cent higher than the cost of production, while raising farm credit target for the next fiscal by 10 per cent to Rs 11 lakh crore. [...] He also proposed hiking the agricultural credit target for the next fiscal by Rs 1 lakh crore to a whopping Rs 11 lakh crore. The target was Rs 8.5 lakh crore in 2014-15 and has been gradually increasing under the NDA government.
Claim: Farm credit target has been raised to a record high of 11 lakh crore rupees for 2018-19. (Govt. of India, 2018-05-26)
Evidence (2021-01-27): With the aim of doubling farmers’ income by 2022, the government is likely to raise farm credit target to about ₹19 lakh crore in Budget 2021-22 to be presented on February 1, according to sources. For the current fiscal, the government has set a farm credit target of ₹15 lakh crore. The government has been raising credit target for the farm sector every year and this time too, the target is likely to be increased to around ₹19 lakh crore for 2021-22, sources said. [...] The agricultural credit flow has increased consistently over the years, exceeding the target set for each fiscal. For instance, credit worth ₹11.68 lakh crore was given to farmers in 2017-18, higher than the ₹10 lakh crore target set for that year, they added. Similarly, crop loans worth ₹10.66 lakh crore were disbursed in 2016-17, higher than the credit target of ₹9 lakh crore.
Claim: Farm credit target has been raised to a record high of 11 lakh crore rupees for 2018-19. (Govt. of India, 2018-05-26)
Evidence (2018-01-23): Budget 2018: Agri-credit likely to increase to Rs 11 trn for better flow The farm credit target is likely to be raised by a whopping Rs 1 trillion (Rs 1 lakh crore) to a record Rs 11 trillion (Rs 11 lakh crore) in the Budget 2018–19 to improve credit flow in the agriculture sector, according to sources. [...] "The government’s priority is agriculture. There is a possibility that the credit disbursal target for the agriculture sector will further be increased to Rs 11 trillion (Rs 11 lakh crore) for the next financial year," sources said.
Claim: Farm credit target has been raised to a record high of 11 lakh crore rupees for 2018-19. (Govt. of India, 2018-05-26)
Evidence (2018-01-22): New Delhi, Jan 22 (PTI) The farm credit target is likelyto be raised by a whopping Rs 1 lakh crore to a record Rs 11lakh crore in the Budget 2018-19 to improve credit flow in theagriculture sector, according to sources. In the current fiscal, the government has kept a credittarget of Rs 10 lakh crore. Of which, Rs 6.25 lakh crore hasalready been disbursed in the first six months till September2017, the government data showed. "The government's priority is agriculture. There is apossibility that the credit disbursal target for theagriculture sector will further be increased to Rs 11 lakhcrore for the next fiscal," sources said.
Claim: Farm credit target has been raised to a record high of 11 lakh crore rupees for 2018-19. (Govt. of India, 2018-05-26)
Evidence (2019-01-20): In Short - The farm credit target is likely to be raised by about 10% to Rs 12 lakh cr in the 2019-20 Budget to be presented on Feb 1 - For the current fiscal, the government has set a credit target of Rs 11 lakh cr - Crop loans worth Rs 10.66 lakh cr were disbursed in the 2016-17 fiscal, higher than the credit target of Rs 9 lakh cr The farm credit target is likely to be raised by about 10 per cent to a record Rs 12 lakh crore in the 2019-20 Budget to be presented on February 1, according to sources. [...] "The government has been increasing the credit target for the farm sector every year. This time too, the target is likely to be increased by around 10 per cent or Rs 1 lakh crore to Rs 12 lakh crore for the 2019-20 fiscal," the sources said.
Claim: Farm credit target has been raised to a record high of 11 lakh crore rupees for 2018-19. (Govt. of India, 2018-05-26)
Evidence (2024-07-10): All through the last decade and more, farm credit targets were surpassed. The government has been trying to address the persisting regional imbalances by ensuring strong credit flows to the agriculture sector, the growth rates of which have been satisfactory in most of recent years, except 2023-24. The credit target is going to be kept at a relatively low level in FY25 in the wake of the apprehension whether the credit to the sector is skewed towards boosting crop production, without pushing infrastructure creation to the desired extent. [...] The regional disparity in the credit flow to agriculture sector persisted last fiscal too, with Rs 12.5 trillion of the total loans going to five southern states – Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Kerala. In fact, the share of four southern states in farm credit rose steadily from 42.6% in 2017-18 to 5-.5% in 2023-24. These states accounts for only 17% of the gross cropped area.