copenlu/druid huggingface dataset:
Claim: We do not know if CO2 is the cause of global warming (Holman W. Jenkins Jr., 2023-11-03)
Evidence (2019-07-30): Why does CO2 drive global warming when there is only 0.04% of it in the atmosphere? And why isn’t water vapor the major driving factor? [...] Both water vapor and CO2 are responsible for global warming, and once we increase the CO2 in the atmosphere, the oceans warm up, which inevitably triggers an increase in water vapor. But while we have no way to control water vapor, we can control CO2. And because we are increasing the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere by continuing to burn fossil fuels, even in relatively small amounts compared to the entire mass of the atmosphere, we are disturbing the entire heat balance of the planet. For more information on how carbon dioxide traps heat, why water vapor isn’t the culprit, and answers to several other interesting questions, check out this post: How Exactly Does Carbon Dioxide Cause Global Warming?
Claim: We do not know if CO2 is the cause of global warming (Holman W. Jenkins Jr., 2023-11-03)
Evidence (2017-02-17): Over the course of Earth’s 4.5-billion-year history, the climate has changed a lot, this is true. However, the rapid warming we’re seeing now can't be explained by natural cycles of warming and cooling. The kind of changes that would normally happen over hundreds of thousands of years are happening in decades. [...] Human-induced climate change is something that has been happening for many years and Western countries, like the UK, have played a big role in contributing to carbon emissions over the past 200 years. This means that only looking at who the biggest emitters of greenhouse gases are today is an oversimplification of a very nuanced topic. [...] Let’s be clear, CO2 itself does not cause problems. It's part of the natural global ecosystem. The problem is the quantity of CO2 that’s being produced by us as humans; there hasn’t been this level of CO2 in the atmosphere for thee million years.[2]
Claim: We do not know if CO2 is the cause of global warming (Holman W. Jenkins Jr., 2023-11-03)
Evidence (2020-01-01): Some scientists propose that greenhouse gases act like a blanket surrounding Earth, keeping Earth approximately 33 oC warmer than expected for a planet at Earth’s distance from Sun. Blankets are well-known to slow the loss of thermal energy from a body of matter, but a blanket has no way to increase the amplitudes of oscillation at every frequency of oscillation. A blanket cannot be the source of new thermal energy required to increase the temperature of the body under the blanket, unless it is an electric blanket that adds thermal energy from somewhere else. [...] What is most surprising, given the importance of greenhouse gases in today’s politics, is that greenhouse gases absorbing infrared radiation have never been shown by experiment, a cornerstone of the scientific method, to cause any significant increase in air temperature as explained at JustProveCO2.com. Greenhouse gases absorbing infrared radiation have never been shown by experiment to cause any significant increase in air temperature.
Claim: We do not know if CO2 is the cause of global warming (Holman W. Jenkins Jr., 2023-11-03)
Evidence (2024-04-11): Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the primary greenhouse gas emitted through human activities. In 2022, CO2 accounted for 80% of all U.S. greenhouse gas emissions from human activities. Carbon dioxide is naturally present in the atmosphere as part of the Earth's carbon cycle (the natural circulation of carbon among the atmosphere, oceans, soil, plants, and animals). Human activities are altering the carbon cycle–both by adding more CO2 to the atmosphere and by influencing the ability of natural sinks, like forests and soils, to remove and store CO2 from the atmosphere. While CO2 emissions come from a variety of natural sources, human-related emissions are responsible for the increase that has occurred in the atmosphere since the industrial revolution.2 [...] Carbon dioxide is constantly being exchanged among the atmosphere, ocean, and land surface as it is both produced and absorbed by many microorganisms, plants, and animals. Emissions and removals of CO2 by these natural processes, however, tend to balance over time, absent anthropogenic impacts. Since the Industrial Revolution began around 1750, human activities have contributed substantially to climate change by adding CO2 and other heat-trapping gases to the atmosphere. To find out more about the role of CO2 in warming the atmosphere, visit the Climate Change Indicators page.
Claim: We do not know if CO2 is the cause of global warming (Holman W. Jenkins Jr., 2023-11-03)
Evidence (2018-12-17): If the cement industry were a country, it would be the third largest emitter in the world - behind China and the US. It contributes more CO2 than aviation fuel (2.5%) and is not far behind the global agriculture business (12%). [...] The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - the leading international body on global warming - last month argued the global average temperature rise needed to be kept below 1.5C - not 2C as noted in the Paris Agreement. This means CO2 emissions need to decline by 45% from 2010 levels by 2030. [...] But Mr Preston says it is imperative that governments and industry now act quickly at a time when global development is expected to rise but CO2 emissions need to fall.
Claim: We do not know if CO2 is the cause of global warming (Holman W. Jenkins Jr., 2023-11-03)
Evidence (2023-05-11): Carbon dioxide is naturally in the air: plants need it to grow, and animals exhale it when they breathe. But, thanks to people burning fuels, there is now more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere than anytime in the past 15 million years. Most of this CO2 collects in the atmosphere and, because it absorbs heat from the sun, creates a blanket around the planet, warming its temperature. But some 30 percent of this CO2 dissolves into seawater, where it doesn't remain as floating CO2 molecules. A series of chemical changes break down the CO2 molecules and recombine them with others. [...] The main effect of increasing carbon dioxide that weighs on people's minds is the warming of the planet. Some geoengineering proposals address this through various ways of reflecting sunlight—and thus excess heat—back into space from the atmosphere. This could be done by releasing particles into the high atmosphere, which act like tiny, reflecting mirrors, or even by putting giant reflecting mirrors in orbit! However, this solution does nothing to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, and this carbon dioxide would continue to dissolve into the ocean and cause acidification.
Claim: We do not know if CO2 is the cause of global warming (Holman W. Jenkins Jr., 2023-11-03)
Evidence (2024-09-30): A: Global warming occurs when carbon dioxide (CO2) and other air pollutants collect in the atmosphere and absorb sunlight and solar radiation that have bounced off the earth’s surface. Normally this radiation would escape into space, but these pollutants, which can last for years to centuries in the atmosphere, trap the heat and cause the planet to get hotter. These heat-trapping pollutants—specifically carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, water vapor, and synthetic fluorinated gases—are known as greenhouse gases, and their impact is called the greenhouse effect. Though natural cycles and fluctuations have caused the earth’s climate to change several times over the last 800,000 years, our current era of global warming is directly attributable to human activity—specifically to our burning of fossil fuels such as coal, oil, gasoline, and natural gas, which results in the greenhouse effect. In the United States, the largest source of greenhouse gases is transportation (29 percent), followed closely by electricity production (28 percent) and industrial activity (22 percent). Learn about the natural and human causes of climate change.
Claim: "The sun has gone into ‘lockdown’ which could cause freezing weather, earthquakes and famine, say scientists" (Chris Pollard, 2020-05-20)
Evidence (2020-05-20): Although solar activity is currently in a quiet phase, this is typical of the 11-year cycle in the Sun’s energy output. The effect of low solar activity on the Earth’s climate is small compared to global warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions.
Claim: "The sun has gone into ‘lockdown’ which could cause freezing weather, earthquakes and famine, say scientists" (Chris Pollard, 2020-05-20)
Evidence (2020-10-22): In new research, we show that lockdown had a negligible effect on global temperatures. So what really happened? [...] The different gases and aerosols we emit either contribute to global heating or global dimming. So determining how lockdown affected global temperatures is a matter of finding out which effect dominated. [...] The lockdown offered an invaluable test for our theories about how pollutants affect the climate. From this, we’ll be able to improve our models and make better predictions. We’ll also know better how to plan a strategy that reduces emissions from different sectors without inviting a sudden and sharp increase in global heating.
Claim: "The sun has gone into ‘lockdown’ which could cause freezing weather, earthquakes and famine, say scientists" (Chris Pollard, 2020-05-20)
Evidence (2020-05-22): CLARIFICATION: We've amended this story and headline as the original claimed the sun's inactivity could be lead to earthquakes, freezing weather and famine. While the sun is entering a period of decreased activity there is no firm proof this could happen. Experts say the sun's quiet phase is part of a natural 11-year cycle. It's not just the world that's gone into lockdown, the sun's activity has also fallen and one astronomer is warning 'it's a deep one'. [...] However don't panic-buy thermals just yet. Other scientists say this period of inactivity is typical of the sun's 11-year cycle - and it's affects will be small compared to global warming.
Claim: "The sun has gone into ‘lockdown’ which could cause freezing weather, earthquakes and famine, say scientists" (Chris Pollard, 2020-05-20)
Evidence (2023-05-18): As is almost always the case with science, more research is required before we can know for sure if the Sun can trigger earthquakes. But if future work manages to cement the proposed connection, keeping a close eye on our shining star might help us better predict and prepare for when the ground unexpectedly and violently shakes beneath our feet, possibly helping save lives.
Claim: "The sun has gone into ‘lockdown’ which could cause freezing weather, earthquakes and famine, say scientists" (Chris Pollard, 2020-05-20)
Evidence (2020-05-21): Sun is in quiet ‘lockdown’ period of solar cycle – but scientists dismiss ‘apocalypse’ theories OUR sun has gone into lockdown, with reduced solar activity as part of an 11-year cycle. [...] Disclaimer: A previous version of this article included misleading claims that the current solar minimum may be linked to extreme cold weather, crop loss, famine, earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. The scientific consensus disagrees with these claims, and the article has been amended.
Claim: "The sun has gone into ‘lockdown’ which could cause freezing weather, earthquakes and famine, say scientists" (Chris Pollard, 2020-05-20)
Evidence (2020-05-14): The sun has entered a ‘lockdown’ period – but scientists dismiss ‘apocalypse’ theories OUR sun has gone into lockdown, with reduced solar activity as part of an 11-year cycle. [...] Disclaimer: A previous version of this article included misleading claims that the current solar minimum may be linked to extreme cold weather, crop loss, famine, earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. The scientific consensus disagrees with these claims, and the article has been amended.
Claim: "The sun has gone into ‘lockdown’ which could cause freezing weather, earthquakes and famine, say scientists" (Chris Pollard, 2020-05-20)
Evidence (2020-05-14): Nasa scientists fear it could be a repeat of the Dalton Minimum, which happened between 1790 and 1830 — leading to periods of brutal cold, crop loss, famine and powerful volcanic eruptions.
Claim: "The sun has gone into ‘lockdown’ which could cause freezing weather, earthquakes and famine, say scientists" (Chris Pollard, 2020-05-20)
Evidence (2020-08-07): Climate change: Lockdown has 'negligible' effect on temperatures The dramatic drop in greenhouse gases and air pollutants seen during the global lockdown will have little impact on our warming planet say scientists. [...] "Our paper shows that the actual effect of lockdown on the climate is small. The important thing to recognise is that we've been given a massive opportunity to boost the economy by investing in green industries - and this can make a huge difference to our future climate," she explained.
Claim: "The sun has gone into ‘lockdown’ which could cause freezing weather, earthquakes and famine, say scientists" (Chris Pollard, 2020-05-20)
Evidence (2020-05-20): The claim "Nasa scientists fear it could be a repeat of the Dalton Minimum, which happened between 1790 and 1830 — leading to periods of brutal cold, crop loss, famine and powerful volcanic eruptions," is unsupported and contrasts with scientific evidence showing no relationship between low solar activity and Earth’s climate[1]. [...] The article relies on a quote from Dr. Tony Phillips stating that "Solar Minimum is under way," but the quote does not mention temperature, earthquakes, or famine. Contrary to this claim, NASA explains, "the current scientific consensus is that long and short-term variations in solar activity play only a very small role in Earth’s climate. Since 1750, the warming driven by greenhouse gases coming from the human burning of fossil fuels is over 50 times greater than the slight extra warming coming from the Sun itself over that same time interval." [...] Although solar activity is currently low, this is typical of the 11-year cycle. There is no scientific evidence to support the claims that low solar activity can cause freezing weather, famine, earthquakes, and volcanic eruptions.
Claim: "The sun has gone into ‘lockdown’ which could cause freezing weather, earthquakes and famine, say scientists" (Chris Pollard, 2020-05-20)
Evidence (2020-05-20): While the sun had entered a so-called "lockdown" period — when the number of sunspots on the star's surface decreased to few or none, technically called a "solar minimum" — by spring 2020, it was a normal occurrence for the star and was not projected by scientists to threaten life on Earth with famine, earthquakes, or freezing weather. [...] Recirculating sensational headlines on the concept — including the New York Post's May 14 article "The sun has entered a 'lockdown' period, which could cause freezing weather, famine" — numerous people reached out to Snopes to investigate the validity of the claim: that the power of our solar system's star had decreased to the point that life on Earth would be threatened by famine, earthquakes, and freezing temperatures. [...] They surrounded my accurate "quotes" (from the website) with false content about a "Solar Lockdown" and its imaginary consequences. The overall impression is that I have raised the alarm about Solar Minimum, famine, drought, earthquakes and so on. ... It's a sensational fabrication.
Claim: "The sun has gone into ‘lockdown’ which could cause freezing weather, earthquakes and famine, say scientists" (Chris Pollard, 2020-05-20)
Evidence (2020-07-03): Similarly, Indian scientists have developed models on the impact of natural hazards such as droughts, famine, and even earthquakes on vector-borne diseases. A few predictive models focus on more regular weather, such as winter conditions and respiratory diseases such as asthma, tuberculosis, and measles and the impact of summer weather on heat strokes and diarrhea, Patil said.
Claim: "The sun has gone into ‘lockdown’ which could cause freezing weather, earthquakes and famine, say scientists" (Chris Pollard, 2020-05-20)
Evidence (2021-12-14): There’s plenty to worry about right now. But a solar-induced ice age, earthquakes and famine are not among them, despite the misinformation out there.
Claim: "The sun has gone into ‘lockdown’ which could cause freezing weather, earthquakes and famine, say scientists" (Chris Pollard, 2020-05-20)
Evidence (2020-06-14): Nasa scientists fear it could be a repeat of the Dalton Minimum, which happened between 1790 and 1830 — leading to periods of brutal cold, crop loss, famine and powerful volcanic eruptions." SOURCE: The sun has gone into ‘lockdown’ which could cause freezing weather, earthquakes and famine, say scientists by Chris Pollard, The Sun (UK), May 13, 2020 [...] (May 22, 2020): After this post was published, the headlines and bodies of articles in The Sun and the New York Post were corrected to clarify that low solar activity does not cause brutal cold, crop loss, famine, or volcanic eruptions. These articles now include disclaimers saying previous versions of the articles included misleading claims.
Claim: "The sun has gone into ‘lockdown’ which could cause freezing weather, earthquakes and famine, say scientists" (Chris Pollard, 2020-05-20)
Evidence (2024-04-26): The current solar minimum could last for more than three decades which could lead to temperatures plummeting across the globe, scientists have warned.
Claim: "The sun has gone into ‘lockdown’ which could cause freezing weather, earthquakes and famine, say scientists" (Chris Pollard, 2020-05-20)
Evidence (2020-05-19): Because we are normal people living in normal times, normal things are happening. Like news tabloids reporting that the Sun is in "lockdown", and that Earth is doomed to crazy weather famine and… earthquakes, for some reason. Well, you can relax. Nothing the Sun is currently doing is going to create freezing weather, famine, or earthquakes. While humans are experiencing things that are decidedly not okay, the Sun is doing nothing unusual whatsoever. [...] The link to dropping temperatures, earthquakes and famine is tenuous at best. A few days ago, a tabloid called, uh, The Sun cited unnamed "NASA scientists" fearing a repeat of an event known as the Dalton Minimum.
Claim: "The sun has gone into ‘lockdown’ which could cause freezing weather, earthquakes and famine, say scientists" (Chris Pollard, 2020-05-20)
Evidence (2024-05-07): ['Global warming is driving polar bears toward extinction', 'The sun has gone into 'lockdown' which could cause freezing weather, earthquakes and famine, say scientists', 'The polar bear population has been growing.', "Ironic' study finds more CO2 has slightly cooled the planet", 'Human additions of CO2 are in the margin of error of current measurements and the gradual increase in CO2 is mainly from oceans degassing as the planet slowly emerges from the last ice age.']
Claim: "The sun has gone into ‘lockdown’ which could cause freezing weather, earthquakes and famine, say scientists" (Chris Pollard, 2020-05-20)
Evidence (2020-05-21): Our Sun Is Going Into A 'Lockdown', But Don't Panic As It Won't Cause Any Calamities On Earth Sun's going into 'lockdown': What does this mean for the Earth and all of us living on it? [...] Sun's lockdown or solar minimum, as its rightly called, is part of the solar cycle where the sun's magnetic pole flips. Since the sun's magnetic field controls the sun's overall activity, during the flipping of its magnetic poles it experiences solar minimum or reduced level of activity -- as indicated by reduced number of sunspots and flares, for instance.
Claim: Using complex statistical models, [NOAA] change[s] the data to reflect not reality, but their underlying theories of global warming. (Anonymous, 2020-02-19)
Evidence (2020-02-19): Scientists routinely adjust temperature data to correct errors due to weather stations being moved to different locations or instruments being changed.. Historical changes to U.S. stations have caused the number of upward and downward temperature adjustments to be unequal, but this is not representative of the entire world. Overall, adjustments to temperature data reduce the apparent amount of long-term global warming—the opposite of exaggerating it.
Claim: Using complex statistical models, [NOAA] change[s] the data to reflect not reality, but their underlying theories of global warming. (Anonymous, 2020-02-19)
Evidence (2024-01-18): Key resources - Climate at a Glance for NOAA global and national surface temperature maps, graphs, and underlying data.
Claim: Using complex statistical models, [NOAA] change[s] the data to reflect not reality, but their underlying theories of global warming. (Anonymous, 2020-02-19)
Evidence (2022-11-18): A practical guide to understanding and validating complex models using data simulations November 18, 2022 - Biologists routinely fit novel and complex statistical models to push the limits of our understanding. Examples include, but are not limited to, flexible Bayesian approaches (e.g. BUGS, stan), frequentist and likelihood-based approaches (e.g. packages lme4) and machine learning methods.
Claim: Using complex statistical models, [NOAA] change[s] the data to reflect not reality, but their underlying theories of global warming. (Anonymous, 2020-02-19)
Evidence (2020-06-25): Analyzing Complex Models Using Data and Statistics [...] Patra, A.K., Bevilacqua, A., Safei, A.A. (2018). Analyzing Complex Models Using Data and Statistics.
Claim: Using complex statistical models, [NOAA] change[s] the data to reflect not reality, but their underlying theories of global warming. (Anonymous, 2020-02-19)
Evidence (2020-06-25): A model is only as good as its underlying data, and data in a time of extreme uncertainty, such as a global pandemic, present a serious challenge. Just as rotten ingredients won’t produce a tasty dish no matter how good the recipe is, poor data lead to poor output from a model.
Claim: Using complex statistical models, [NOAA] change[s] the data to reflect not reality, but their underlying theories of global warming. (Anonymous, 2020-02-19)
Evidence (2022-03-08): for all the models in the "complex" family.
Claim: Using complex statistical models, [NOAA] change[s] the data to reflect not reality, but their underlying theories of global warming. (Anonymous, 2020-02-19)
Evidence (2018-05-18): Climate models are complex because of the all the elements that are in flux within Earth’s systems. If our atmosphere was like the moon’s, climate modeling would be fairly easy because the moon barely has an atmosphere. On Earth, climate scientists must account for temperature fluctuations, wind patterns, ocean currents, land surface characteristics and much more. Because of this, the models always consider some level of uncertainty – but models measuring smaller areas with higher resolutions produce more accurate models. Despite a small amount of uncertainty, scientists find climate models of the 21st century to be pretty accurate because they are based on well-founded physical principles of earth system processes. This basis solidifies the confidence of the scientific community that human emissions are changing the climate, which will impact the entire planet.
Claim: Using complex statistical models, [NOAA] change[s] the data to reflect not reality, but their underlying theories of global warming. (Anonymous, 2020-02-19)
Evidence (2020-01-09): Scientists use climate models to better understand how Earth’s climate changed in the past, how it is changing now and to predict future climate trends. Global temperature trends are among the most significant predictions, since global warming has widespread effects, is tied directly to international target agreements for mitigating future climate warming, and have the longest, most accurate observational records. Other climate variables are forecast in the newer, more complex models, and those predictions too will need to be assessed.