copenlu/druid huggingface dataset:
Claim: The atmospheric residency time of carbon dioxide is five years and it is quickly sequestered into plants, marine life, oceans and sediments. (Ian Plimer, 2018-11-08)
Evidence (2019-06-27): This statement of the "short residence time" has been misused in the past. This statement ignores the fact that there is a dynamic exchange between the atmosphere and the ocean. See e.g. Figure 6-01 in the IPCC 2013 report (copied below)—while the ocean indeed takes up about 80 billion metric tonnes of Carbon per year from the atmosphere, it also releases about 78 billion metric tonnes of Carbon per year back, hence CO2 molecules are not immediately sequestered as suggested by the author, but are subject to a dynamical exchange leaving the annual net sequestration to be on the order of 2billion metric tonnes of Carbon per year, or only roughly 20-25 % of the annual human-caused CO2 emissions. This number is supported by models and measurements of the partial pressure of carbon dioxide in the ocean.
Claim: The atmospheric residency time of carbon dioxide is five years and it is quickly sequestered into plants, marine life, oceans and sediments. (Ian Plimer, 2018-11-08)
Evidence (2023-04-27): When scientists give estimates for how long carbon dioxide (CO2) lasts in the atmosphere, those estimates are often intentionally vague, ranging anywhere from hundreds to thousands of years.1 The reason for the murky timeline is that CO2 molecules, once they enter the air, follow different paths and can last for radically different amounts of time. Unlike some other atmospheric gases, CO2 mostly does not break down into smaller molecules while in the atmosphere. Methane, for instance—another important greenhouse gas—reacts with oxygen to turn into CO2 and water within a matter of years, and that process can be observed and measured. But CO2 molecules typically linger until something absorbs them from the air.2 Some are quickly taken up by the ocean, plants, and soil.3 Other atmospheric carbon sticks around for generations.4 "The first 10% goes quickly, but it's not very much of it. The second part goes on a scale of centuries to millennia, but that only gets 80% of it," says Ed Boyle, a professor of ocean geochemistry at MIT. He says the last of the carbon dioxide that enters the atmosphere takes tens of thousands of years to leave.
Claim: The atmospheric residency time of carbon dioxide is five years and it is quickly sequestered into plants, marine life, oceans and sediments. (Ian Plimer, 2018-11-08)
Evidence (2024-08-06): Carbon dioxide [edit]Carbon dioxide (CO2) has a large warming effect on global temperatures through the greenhouse effect. Although individual CO2 molecules have a short residence time in the atmosphere, it takes an extremely long time for carbon dioxide levels to sink after sudden rises, due to e.g. volcanic eruptions or human activity[17] and among the many long-lasting greenhouse gases, it is the most important because it makes up the largest fraction of the atmosphere.[10] Since the Industrial Revolution, the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere has risen from about 280 ppm to almost 400 ppm.[7] Although the amount of CO2 introduced makes up only a small portion of the global carbon cycle, carbon dioxide's long residence time makes these emissions relevant for the total carbon balance. The increased carbon dioxide concentration strengthens the greenhouse effect, causing changes to the global climate. Of the increased amounts of carbon dioxide that are introduced to the atmosphere each year, approximately 80% are from the combustion of fossil fuels and cement production.
Claim: The atmospheric residency time of carbon dioxide is five years and it is quickly sequestered into plants, marine life, oceans and sediments. (Ian Plimer, 2018-11-08)
Evidence (2023-02-20): Residence Time vs. Adjustment Time of Carbon Dioxide in the Atmosphere - PMID: 36832750 - PMCID: PMC9955352 - DOI: 10.3390/e25020384 [...] We study the concepts of residence time vs. adjustment time time for carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. The system is analyzed with a two-box first-order model. Using this model, we reach three important conclusions: (1) The adjustment time is never larger than the residence time and can, thus, not be longer than about 5 years. (2) The idea of the atmosphere being stable at 280 ppm in pre-industrial times is untenable. (3) Nearly 90% of all anthropogenic carbon dioxide has already been removed from the atmosphere. [...] - - van der Ent R.J., Tuinenburg O.A. The residence time of water in the atmosphere revisited. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 2017;21:779–790. doi: 10.5194/hess-21-779-2017. - DOI - - Cawley G.C. On the Atmospheric Residence Time of Anthropogenically Sourced Carbon Dioxide. Energy Fuels. 2011;25:5503–5513. doi: 10.1021/ef200914u. - DOI - - Stocker I.T.F., Qin D., Plattner G.K., Tignor M.M., Allen S.K., Boschung J., Nauels A., Xia Y., Bex V., Midgley P.M., editors. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press; Cambridge, UK: 2013.
Claim: The atmospheric residency time of carbon dioxide is five years and it is quickly sequestered into plants, marine life, oceans and sediments. (Ian Plimer, 2018-11-08)
Evidence (2020-10-16): It turns out that while much of the "pulse" of extra CO2 accumulating in the atmosphere would be absorbed over the next century if emissions miraculously were to end today, about 20 percent of that CO2 would remain for at least tens of thousands of years. [...] Determining the residence time of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is a rather complex problem. A common misconception arises from simply looking at the annual carbon flux and the atmospheric stock; after all, with 230 gigatons absorbed by the oceans and land every year, and a total atmospheric stock of 720 gigatons, one might expect the average molecule of CO2 to remain in the atmosphere for only three to four years. Such an approach poorly frames the issue, however. It is not the residence time of an individual molecule that is relevant. What really matters is just how long it will take for the stock of anthropogenic carbon emissions that has accumulated in the atmosphere to be reabsorbed.
Claim: The atmospheric residency time of carbon dioxide is five years and it is quickly sequestered into plants, marine life, oceans and sediments. (Ian Plimer, 2018-11-08)
Evidence (2018-08-11): Carbon dioxide flows through the atmosphere, ocean, land ecosystems, and rock of the Earth. Human emissions have pushed these flows out of balance, causing CO2 to accumulate in the atmosphere, strengthening the greenhouse effect for hundreds to thousands of years. Misleading: The residence time of a molecule of CO2 is not the same as the length of time that human-caused emissions keep the amount in the atmosphere elevated. [...] This statement of the "short residence time" has been misused in the past. This statement ignores the fact that there is a dynamic exchange between the atmosphere and the ocean. See e.g. Figure 6-01 in the IPCC 2013 report (copied below)—while the ocean indeed takes up about 80 billion metric tonnes of Carbon per year from the atmosphere, it also releases about 78 billion metric tonnes of Carbon per year back, hence CO2 molecules are not immediately sequestered as suggested by the author, but are subject to a dynamical exchange leaving the annual net sequestration to be on the order of 2billion metric tonnes of Carbon per year, or only roughly 20-25 % of the annual human-caused CO2 emissions. This number is supported by models and measurements of the partial pressure of carbon dioxide in the ocean.
Claim: The atmospheric residency time of carbon dioxide is five years and it is quickly sequestered into plants, marine life, oceans and sediments. (Ian Plimer, 2018-11-08)
Evidence (2011-06-16): Chemistry regulates this dance between ocean, land, and atmosphere. If carbon dioxide rises in the atmosphere because of an increase in volcanic activity, for example, temperatures rise, leading to more rain, which dissolves more rock, creating more ions that will eventually deposit more carbon on the ocean floor. It takes a few hundred thousand years to rebalance the slow carbon cycle through chemical weathering. [...] All of this extra carbon needs to go somewhere. So far, land plants and the ocean have taken up about 55 percent of the extra carbon people have put into the atmosphere while about 45 percent has stayed in the atmosphere. Eventually, the land and oceans will take up most of the extra carbon dioxide, but as much as 20 percent may remain in the atmosphere for many thousands of years. [...] It is significant that so much carbon dioxide stays in the atmosphere because CO2 is the most important gas for controlling Earth’s temperature. Carbon dioxide, methane, and halocarbons are greenhouse gases that absorb a wide range of energy—including infrared energy (heat) emitted by the Earth—and then re-emit it. The re-emitted energy travels out in all directions, but some returns to Earth, where it heats the surface. Without greenhouse gases, Earth would be a frozen -18 degrees Celsius (0 degrees Fahrenheit). With too many greenhouse gases, Earth would be like Venus, where the greenhouse atmosphere keeps temperatures around 400 degrees Celsius (750 Fahrenheit).
Claim: The atmospheric residency time of carbon dioxide is five years and it is quickly sequestered into plants, marine life, oceans and sediments. (Ian Plimer, 2018-11-08)
Evidence (2016-07-08): Atmospheric lifetime is the average time that a molecule resides in the atmosphere before it is removed by chemical reaction or deposition. In general, if a quantity of a compound is emitted into the atmosphere at a particular time, about 35 percent of that quantity will remain in the atmosphere at the end of the compound's atmospheric lifetime. This fraction will continue to decrease in an exponential way, so that about 15 percent of the quantity will remain at the end of two times the atmospheric lifetime, etc. (Some compounds, most notably carbon dioxide, have more complex lifecycles, and their atmospheric lifetimes are not defined by a simple exponential equation.) Greenhouse gas lifetimes can range from a few years to a few thousand years. [...] The average time spent in a reservoir by an individual atom or molecule. With respect to greenhouse gases, residence time refers to how long on average a particular molecule remains in the atmosphere. For most gases other than methane and carbon dioxide, the residence time is approximately equal to the atmospheric lifetime. [4]
Claim: The atmospheric residency time of carbon dioxide is five years and it is quickly sequestered into plants, marine life, oceans and sediments. (Ian Plimer, 2018-11-08)
Evidence (2018-02-21): Sequestering carbon in soil, however, is a relatively natural way of removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere with fewer impacts on land and water, less need for energy, and lower costs. Better land management and agricultural practices could enhance the ability of soils to store carbon and help combat global warming. [...] Moreover, the amount of carbon that microbes emit might actually increase over time, further intensifying global warming. A 26-year-long soil warming study in a hardwood forest found that warming temperatures could spur recurring pulses of carbon dioxide emissions from soils. For the first 10 years, as microbes in the heated plots decomposed carbon and released it into the atmosphere, CO2 levels spiked. Afterwards, levels fell and remained the same as those of unheated plots for the next eight years. Then CO2 emissions ramped up again for five years followed by another decline. The scientists concluded that the community of microbes changed over the years. After the first wave of microbes that decomposed the easily digestible carbon died off, a new set of microbes evolved that were able to decompose more resistant carbon that contains more minerals or is wood-based. Most global warming studies only calculate the initial rise in carbon emissions; this research suggests that microbes will evolve, resulting in continuing pulses of CO2 into the atmosphere. However, scientists still do not know how much extra carbon might result or how fast it might be released.
Claim: The atmospheric residency time of carbon dioxide is five years and it is quickly sequestered into plants, marine life, oceans and sediments. (Ian Plimer, 2018-11-08)
Evidence (2016-01-07): Now, let us turn to the carbon cycle and consider some of the flows in and out of the reservoirs. What is the residence time for the atmosphere? To determine this, we take the amount in the reservoir (750 Gt) and divide it by the sum of the inflows or the outflows. Let us take the outflow: 100 Gt C/yr for photosynthesis plus 90 Gt C/yr going into the oceans. The residence time is thus: [...] Residence time = ` tau = (38,973 Gt)/(0.6 Gt yr^-1) = ` 64,965 yearsThis result is much longer than the atmosphere, and what this tells us is that the carbon cycle has some parts that respond quickly, but other parts that respond very slowly; the very slow parts tend to put a damper on how quickly the other parts can change. In other words, if we suddenly inject carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, you might think that the short residence time of the atmosphere means that the excess CO2 can be removed very quickly, but because these reservoirs are linked together, it turns out that the ocean must return to its steady state before the atmosphere can get back to its steady state.
Claim: The atmospheric residency time of carbon dioxide is five years and it is quickly sequestered into plants, marine life, oceans and sediments. (Ian Plimer, 2018-11-08)
Evidence (2019-12-01): Scientific research now indicates more clearly than ever that our carbon footprint—the release of carbon dioxide (CO2) into the atmosphere where it contributes to global warming through the so-called greenhouse effect—now threatens our ecosystems and our way of life. But efforts to mitigate climate change face two significant challenges. The first is to find effective ways to reduce the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere or its impact on average global temperature. The second is to raise sufficient funds to put these technologies into practice. [...] The carbon capture potential of whales is truly startling. Whales accumulate carbon in their bodies during their long lives. When they die, they sink to the bottom of the ocean; each great whale sequesters 33 tons of CO2 on average, taking that carbon out of the atmosphere for centuries. A tree, meanwhile, absorbs only up to 48 pounds of CO2 a year.
Claim: The atmospheric residency time of carbon dioxide is five years and it is quickly sequestered into plants, marine life, oceans and sediments. (Ian Plimer, 2018-11-08)
Evidence (2015-10-25): - Short Residence Times: Carbon in the atmosphere, plants, and soils typically has short residence times, ranging from days to years. For example, carbon dioxide in the atmosphere can be taken up by plants during photosynthesis and released back through respiration relatively quickly. [...] - Unlike the relatively short residence times of carbon in living organisms or the atmosphere, fossil fuels serve as long-term carbon reservoirs. [...] 2.3.16 Methane has a residence time of about 10 years in the atmosphere and is eventually oxidized to carbon dioxide - Define the term 'residence time' and explain its significance for methane in the atmosphere - Describe the oxidation process of methane in the atmosphere - Explain why methane is considered a potent greenhouse gas.
Claim: The atmospheric residency time of carbon dioxide is five years and it is quickly sequestered into plants, marine life, oceans and sediments. (Ian Plimer, 2018-11-08)
Evidence (2022-04-06): The movement of carbon through land, water, and air is complex, and, in many cases, it occurs much more slowly geologically than the movement between living organisms. Carbon is stored for long periods in what are known as carbon reservoirs, which include the atmosphere, bodies of liquid water (mostly oceans), ocean sediment, soil, rocks (including fossil fuels), and Earth’s interior. [...] Another way for carbon to enter the atmosphere is from land (including land beneath the surface of the ocean) by the eruption of volcanoes and other geothermal systems. Carbon sediments from the ocean floor are taken deep within Earth by the process of subduction: the movement of one tectonic plate beneath another. The ocean sediments are subducted by the actions of plate tectonics, melted and then returned to the surface during volcanic activity. Carbon is released as carbon dioxide when a volcano erupts or from volcanic hydrothermal vents.Plate tectonics can also cause uplifting, returning ocean sediments to land.
Claim: The atmospheric residency time of carbon dioxide is five years and it is quickly sequestered into plants, marine life, oceans and sediments. (Ian Plimer, 2018-11-08)
Evidence (2019-12-05): This diagram illustrates the mechanisms by which carbon moves into and out of coastal wetlands: (1) Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is taken in by trees and plants during the process of photosynthesis. This is called sequestration. (2) Dead leaves, branches, and roots containing carbon are buried in the soil, which is frequently, if not always, covered with tidal waters. This oxygen-poor environment causes very slow breakdown of the plant materials, resulting in significant carbon storage. (3) A small amount of carbon is lost back to the atmosphere through respiration, while the rest is stored in the leaves, branches, and roots of the plants. This diagram is adapted from a figure in Sutton-Grier et al. 2014 Marine Policy [...] Once carbon is in the soil some of it is respired by microbes and returns to the atmosphere as carbon dioxide. However, some of the carbon stays stored in the soils, often for hundreds or even thousands of years, buried deep underground.
Claim: The atmospheric residency time of carbon dioxide is five years and it is quickly sequestered into plants, marine life, oceans and sediments. (Ian Plimer, 2018-11-08)
Evidence (2020-04-20): Human activities have dramatically increased atmospheric CO2 levels, causing imbalances in the global carbon cycle Human additions of CO2 are in the margin of error of current measurements and the gradual increase in CO2 is mainly from oceans degassing as the planet slowly emerges from the last ice age.
Claim: The atmospheric residency time of carbon dioxide is five years and it is quickly sequestered into plants, marine life, oceans and sediments. (Ian Plimer, 2018-11-08)
Evidence (2024-04-11): - Carbon dioxide (CO2): Carbon dioxide enters the atmosphere through burning fossil fuels (coal, natural gas, and oil), solid waste, trees and other biological materials, and also as a result of certain chemical reactions (e.g., cement production). Carbon dioxide is removed from the atmosphere (or "sequestered") when it is absorbed by plants as part of the biological carbon cycle. [...] Carbon dioxide is constantly being exchanged among the atmosphere, ocean, and land surface as it is both produced and absorbed by many microorganisms, plants, and animals. Emissions and removals of CO2 by these natural processes, however, tend to balance over time, absent anthropogenic impacts. Since the Industrial Revolution began around 1750, human activities have contributed substantially to climate change by adding CO2 and other heat-trapping gases to the atmosphere. [...] 1 Atmospheric CO2 is part of the global carbon cycle, and therefore its fate is a complex function of geochemical and biological processes. Some of the excess carbon dioxide will be absorbed quickly (for example, by the ocean surface), but some will remain in the atmosphere for thousands of years, due in part to the very slow process by which carbon is transferred to ocean sediments.
Claim: The atmospheric residency time of carbon dioxide is five years and it is quickly sequestered into plants, marine life, oceans and sediments. (Ian Plimer, 2018-11-08)
Evidence (2005-01-21): ———. Sequestering atmospheric carbon dioxide. Critical Reviews in Plant Science 28, 90-96 (2009).
Claim: The atmospheric residency time of carbon dioxide is five years and it is quickly sequestered into plants, marine life, oceans and sediments. (Ian Plimer, 2018-11-08)
Evidence (2024-01-01): - Carbon moves from fossil fuels to the atmosphere when fuels are burned. When humans burn fossil fuels to power factories, power plants, cars and trucks, most of the carbon quickly enters the atmosphere as carbon dioxide gas. Each year, five and a half billion tons of carbon is released by burning fossil fuels. Of this massive amount, 3.3 billion tons stays in the atmosphere. Most of the remainder becomes dissolved in seawater. [...] Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas and traps heat in the atmosphere. Without it and other greenhouse gases, Earth would be a frozen world. But since the start of the Industrial Revolution about 150 years ago humans have burned so much fuel and released so much carbon dioxide into the air that global climate has risen over one degree Fahrenheit. The atmosphere has not held this much carbon for at least 420,000 years according to data from ice cores. The recent increase in amounts of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide is having a significant impact on the warming of our planet.
Claim: El Niño drove record highs in global temperatures suggesting rise may not be down to man-made emissions. (David Rose, 2016-11-26)
Evidence (2016-11-26): Misrepresents a complex reality : Record highs in global surface temperatures in 2016 are due to the superposition of an El Niño event on top of the warming effect of human greenhouse gas emissions, so blaming the record only on El Niño paints a simplistic picture.
Claim: El Niño drove record highs in global temperatures suggesting rise may not be down to man-made emissions. (David Rose, 2016-11-26)
Evidence (2024-02-29): In 2023, the development of El Niño is poised to drive a global upsurge in surface air temperatures (SAT), potentially resulting in unprecedented warming worldwide. Nevertheless, the regional patterns of SAT anomalies remain diverse, obscuring where historical warming records may be surpassed in the forthcoming year. Our study underscores the significant influence of El Niño and the persistence of climate signals on the inter-annual variability of regional SAT, both in amplitude and spatial distribution. The likelihood of global mean SAT exceeding historical records, calculated from July 2023 to June 2024, is estimated at 90%, contingent upon annual-mean sea surface temperature anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific exceeding 0.6 °C. Regions particularly susceptible to recording record-high SAT include coastal and adjacent areas in Asia such as the Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea, as well as Alaska, the Caribbean Sea, and the Amazon. This impending warmth heightens the risk of year-round marine heatwaves and escalates the threat of wildfires and other negative consequences in Alaska and the Amazon basin, necessitating strategic mitigation measures to minimize potential worst-case impacts.