copenlu/druid huggingface dataset:
Claim: “Anything that you lose on the tariff from the perspective of the consumer, you gain in higher wages, so you're ultimately much better off.” (J.D. Vance, 2024-08-25)
Evidence (2024-08-30): - Kadee Russ of the University of California at Davis in 2019 estimated, from various studies, that net losses projected for 2020 from the tariffs imposed by Trump as president would be between about $500 and $1,700 per household. [...] - A 2021 study by Alberto Cavallo of Harvard Business School and others found tariffs were only partially passed on to retail consumers, meaning companies reduced their profit margins or they spread the hit across many goods that they sell, including non-tariffed goods. In other words, the costs would still show up to consumers, just not in a way that is readily apparent. (This would be less easy for firms to do if tariffs were increased across the board.) [...] Trump’s assertion that tariffs are only a "tax on a foreign country" and "doesn’t affect our country" is, of course, ridiculous. Vance tries to muddy the waters by claiming there is a dispute among economists when, in fact, as we have shown, there is no dispute. Tariffs raise prices for consumers, at least in the short run. Vance argues that there is a "dynamic effect" that mitigates those higher prices, such as more jobs coming into the country over time. That might be open to debate — the Tax Foundation says jobs will be lost — but it’s undisputed that most Americans would end up paying more for many goods if Trump’s tariff plan was imposed.
Claim: “Anything that you lose on the tariff from the perspective of the consumer, you gain in higher wages, so you're ultimately much better off.” (J.D. Vance, 2024-08-25)
Evidence (2024-08-29): Tariffs were critical to Trump’s first administration, especially as he renegotiated the NAFTA agreement with Mexico and Canada. But economists at places like the CATO Institute concluded that tariffs cost taxpayers anywhere from $50 to $80 billion in higher prices. "American consumers (both firms and individuals), not foreigners, paid for — and continue to pay for — the tariffs," the experts wrote. [...] This is a case of Hobson’s choice: Keep some manufacturing jobs in your community, but face higher prices, lower productivity, and retaliation from other countries. After all, one tariff begets another, and the costs pile up. But the political gains are real, so protectionism is on the march again. [...] But Vance has gone further, arguing that tariffs in principle are a net economic gain. A tariff "causes this dynamic effect where more jobs come into the country," Vance recently said on "Meet the Press." You have more take-home pay, you have better jobs," he added.
Claim: “Anything that you lose on the tariff from the perspective of the consumer, you gain in higher wages, so you're ultimately much better off.” (J.D. Vance, 2024-08-25)
Evidence (2024-08-29): But it caused consumers to pay more. They paid more in taxes, $80 billion worth. Do you acknowledge that consumers ultimately will pay more if there are more tariffs? I think economists really disagree about the effects of tariffs, because there can be a dynamic effect, right? So what some economists will say is, what you just said, that it will actually raise costs for consumers. But what other people say, and I think the record supports this other view, is that it causes this dynamic effect where more jobs come into the country. You have more take home pay, you have better jobs, and also you have more reliance. Because one of the things we learned during covid -- I don't, by the way, blame Democrats for this -- but one of the things we learned during covid Kristen is that if our supply chains are really brittle, if we depend on the Chinese to make too much of our stuff, then prices can skyrocket at a time of crisis. The economists who say the tariffs are bad, they don't take that into account. We've all learned at the hard way.
Claim: “Anything that you lose on the tariff from the perspective of the consumer, you gain in higher wages, so you're ultimately much better off.” (J.D. Vance, 2024-08-25)
Evidence (2020-07-01): Such upsides of trade often escape notice, because although the costs are highly concentrated in specific industries such as auto manufacturing, the benefits of a deal such as NAFTA are distributed widely across society. NAFTA supporters estimate that some fourteen million U.S. jobs rely on trade with Canada or Mexico, and that the nearly two hundred thousand export-related jobs created annually by the pact pay 15 to 20 percent more on average than the jobs that were lost. [...] But other economists, including Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Cathleen Cimino-Isaacs of the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE), have emphasized that increased trade produces overall gains for the U.S. economy. Some jobs are lost due to imports, but others are created, and consumers benefit significantly from falling prices and often improved quality of goods. Their 2014 PIIE study of NAFTA’s effects found a net loss of about fifteen thousand jobs per year due to the pact—but gains of roughly $450,000 for each job lost, in the form of higher productivity and lower consumer prices. [...] Economists David Autor, David Dorn, and Gordon Hanson weigh the impacts of trade with China and Mexico on the U.S. labor market in this 2016 paper [PDF] for the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Claim: “Anything that you lose on the tariff from the perspective of the consumer, you gain in higher wages, so you're ultimately much better off.” (J.D. Vance, 2024-08-25)
Evidence (2024-01-01): Additionally, under trade diversion, the importing country loses the tariff revenue it had collected on those imports which now come in duty free from its bloc partner. The consumer in the importing partner does gain, because the imported good no longer has to bear the cost of the tariff; however, the consumer’s gain is necessarily less than or equal to the lost customs revenue, so the nation as a whole is less well off . Thus, trade diversion hurts both the importing country and the rest of the world. These loses are greater than the gains to the bloc member that gains exports due to trade diversion. [...] Yi notes that tariff reductions have a far greater impact on these global supply chains than they do on traditional trade. To take the suit example, assume that China, Bangladesh, and the United States each reduces its tariffs by 1 percent and that imported fabric and buttons account for half the cost of the suit made in China; then the cost of producing the suit in China will be reduced by 0.5 percent. Coupled with the 1 percent U.S. tariff reduction, the cost to the U.S. consumer would be reduced by 1.5 percent. If the suit had been wholly produced in China, the cost to the consumer would have been reduced by just the U.S. tariff reduction, or 1 percent.
Claim: “Anything that you lose on the tariff from the perspective of the consumer, you gain in higher wages, so you're ultimately much better off.” (J.D. Vance, 2024-08-25)
Evidence (2024-08-25): He did impose rounds of tariffs, and it cost Americans nearly $80 billion in new taxes. Do you acknowledge that imposing more tariffs will ultimately cost consumers? [...] But it caused consumers to pay more. They paid more in taxes, $80 billion worth. Do you acknowledge that consumers ultimately will pay more if there are more tariffs imposed? [...] No, I don't, Kristen. Because I think economists really disagree about the effects of tariffs. Because there can be a dynamic effect, right? So what some economists will say is what you just said, that it will actually raise costs for consumers. But what other people say, and I think the record supports this other view, is that it causes this dynamic effect where more jobs come into the country. You have more take-home pay, you have better jobs. And also we have more reliance. Because one of the things we learned during Covid – and I don't, by the way, blame Democrats for this. But one of the things we learned during Covid, Kristen, is that if our supply chains are really brittle, if we depend on the Chinese to make too much of our stuff, then prices can skyrocket at a time of crisis. The economists just say that tariffs are bad. They don't take that into account. And we've all learned it the hard way.
Claim: “Anything that you lose on the tariff from the perspective of the consumer, you gain in higher wages, so you're ultimately much better off.” (J.D. Vance, 2024-08-25)
Evidence (2019-05-23): US-China trade tensions have negatively affected consumers as well as many producers in both countries. The tariffs have reduced trade between the US and China, but the bilateral trade deficit remains broadly unchanged. While the impact on global growth is relatively modest at this time, the latest escalation could significantly dent business and financial market sentiment, disrupt global supply chains, and jeopardize the projected recovery in global growth in 2019. [...] Consumers in the US and China are unequivocally the losers from trade tensions. Research by Cavallo, Gopinath, Neiman and Tang, using price data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics on imports from China, finds that tariff revenue collected has been borne almost entirely by US importers. There was almost no change in the (ex-tariff) border prices of imports from China, and a sharp jump in the post-tariff import prices matching the magnitude of the tariff. [...] Indeed, macroeconomic factors—including relative aggregate demand and supply in partner countries and their underlying drivers—play a much bigger role than tariffs in determining bilateral trade balances.
Claim: “Anything that you lose on the tariff from the perspective of the consumer, you gain in higher wages, so you're ultimately much better off.” (J.D. Vance, 2024-08-25)
Evidence (2024-06-07): In some cases, however, U.S. firms over-shifted the burden of tariffs to final consumers. For example, a new paper by economists Sebastien Houde and Wenjun Wang found that a $1 increase in tariffs on solar panels increased the final price of an installed solar panel system by $1.34. The authors noted "[m]anufacturers and installers thus over-shift the burden of the trade tariffs on U.S. consumer." Over-shifting can occur when domestic firms have "market power," which enables them to raise prices above costs and increase profits. Despite the higher prices, though, the U.S. industry was not better off, as the authors noted "U.S. manufacturers gained little from the anti-dumping policies whereas U.S. installers were largely negatively affected…the solar trade war led to large welfare losses in both countries and substantially slowed the adoption of solar PV." [...] Ultimately, tariffs raise prices for American consumers, but they aren’t the primary culprit for recent surges in inflation. Nonetheless, a repeal of them would be a directional improvement.
Claim: President Joe Biden walked “onto an empty airplane for no reason.” (Instagram posts, 2024-08-02)
Evidence (2024-08-02): President Joe Biden boarded a plane that brought three former American prisoners to Maryland to talk to the flight crew, according to the White House and multiple journalists. Video footage shows the plane wasn’t empty.
Claim: President Joe Biden walked “onto an empty airplane for no reason.” (Instagram posts, 2024-08-02)
Evidence (2020-09-16): On Sept. 15, Joe Biden arrived in Tampa, Fla., for a campaign event, and as he descended the stairs of the airplane, he waved. One video capturing the moment spread quickly on social media as Facebook users shared it with derisive captions suggesting Biden was waving to an empty field. However, the video truly took off when Fox News host Sean Hannity posted it to his account with the title, "This Is Real: Biden Waves To An Empty Field." [...] According to an Associated Press reporter who was there with Biden as he left the plane, the Democratic nominee was waving to a group of firefighters and personnel who were out of the frame due to the camera angle.
Claim: President Joe Biden walked “onto an empty airplane for no reason.” (Instagram posts, 2024-08-02)
Evidence (2024-08-02): Conservative media outlets and social media users are having a field day with a clip of President Joe Biden boarding the airplane that had just brought Evan Gershkovich and others safely to US soil, suggesting the president was "confused" or didn’t know where he was. [...] Fresh off of welcoming home Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich and American veteran Paul Whelan, two American citizens who’d been held in a Russian prison, on Thursday night following a multi-national prisoner exchange, President Joe Biden appeared to wander on to the plane the former detainees had just gotten off of, leaving some people wondering if the 81-year-old thought he was getting on Air Force One. The video has also gone viral on Twitter, an example of the mostly conservative comments read like this from conservative headline post "Amuse" which reads: "Joe Biden climbed back up the stairs of an airplane he wasn’t supposed to be on, as Kamala Harris and the Secret Service watched in disbelief. He clearly has no idea where he is or what he’s doing."
Claim: President Joe Biden walked “onto an empty airplane for no reason.” (Instagram posts, 2024-08-02)
Evidence (2023-08-31): But recently, President Biden has been avoiding climbing up the sometimes-wobbly 18-foot staircase that is trucked over to the plane's upper door. More often than not, he is using a much shorter and sturdier set of stairs that fold out from the belly of the plane. Biden, 80, has stumbled on the tall stairs more than once. The short stairs have the distinct advantage of moving most of Biden's ascent into Air Force One out of public view. But for those who have noticed the shift, it also draws attention to one of Biden's greatest political liabilities as he seeks reelection: his age. [...] Democratic operatives charged with setting up logistics and details for Biden and former President Barack Obama confirmed there's been a shift in how Biden boards the plane, but they didn't want to talk on the record for this story, due to the sensitivities around Biden's age.
Claim: President Joe Biden walked “onto an empty airplane for no reason.” (Instagram posts, 2024-08-02)
Evidence (2024-07-18): Joe Biden slowly boards Air Force One as calls grow for him to drop out of the election [...] US President Joe Biden was seen slowly ascending the small stairs of Air Force One after testing positive for covid on Wednesday.
Claim: President Joe Biden walked “onto an empty airplane for no reason.” (Instagram posts, 2024-08-02)
Evidence (2024-08-20): Remarks by President Biden Before Air Force One Departure | Chicago, IL 12:13 A.M. CDT
Claim: President Joe Biden walked “onto an empty airplane for no reason.” (Instagram posts, 2024-08-02)
Evidence (2024-08-03): A claim began circulating online, primarily on X, involving President Joe Biden stepping onto an airplane after a landmark prisoner swap with Russia in earlier this week. The swap involved the release of three Americans: WSJ reporter Evan Gershkovich, former US Marine Paul Whelan, and Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty Russian-American editor Alsu Kurmasheva. [...] Another piece of evidence disproving the Biden "empty plane" rumor is a photo hosted on Getty Images, taken by photographer Brendan Smialowski. The caption of the archived image explicitly notes that Biden climbed the plane's stairs at Joint Base Andrews "to talk to the pilot who flew the former prisoners." In summary, Biden did not board an "empty plane." Video evidence and eyewitness accounts show that Biden entered the aircraft to visit at least one pilot and possibly others who were still on board.
Claim: President Joe Biden walked “onto an empty airplane for no reason.” (Instagram posts, 2024-08-02)
Evidence (2024-08-03): Multiple social media accounts circulated a video claiming that Joe Biden entered an empty airplane without cause, while other officials and ministers waited outside. [...] The video showing Joe Biden entering what appears to be an "empty plane" has become widely popular on social media, eliciting a variety of responses from the online community. Snopes has confirmed that the plane was not empty when Joe Biden boarded it; instead, he entered the aircraft to engage with the individuals who contributed to the return of the three released prisoners.
Claim: President Joe Biden walked “onto an empty airplane for no reason.” (Instagram posts, 2024-08-02)
Evidence (2024-08-02): "This is BEYOND bizarre … even for Joe Biden!" said one Instagram post from Sebastian Gorka, a former deputy assistant to President Donald Trump. "The Old Man walks onto an empty airplane for no reason and just disappears for a few minutes! Talk about ‘weird.’" [...] We rate claims that Biden boarded an empty plane for no reason False. [...] Snopes, No, Biden Did Not Board 'Empty Plane' After Prisoner Exchange with Russia, Aug. 2, 2024
Claim: President Joe Biden walked “onto an empty airplane for no reason.” (Instagram posts, 2024-08-02)
Evidence (2024-08-03): Hours later, several social media accounts shared the video of the incident and claimed that Joe Biden walked into an empty plane for no reason, while other officials and ministers kept waiting outside for him. [...] The video of Joe Biden walking into an "empty plane" has gone viral on social media and has sparked numerous reactions among netizens. So far, there has been no official information about whether the plane was empty when Joe Biden walked into it or the main motive behind it.
Claim: President Joe Biden walked “onto an empty airplane for no reason.” (Instagram posts, 2024-08-02)
Evidence (2021-08-16): The official shared with TIME a cell phone video he got from a friend trying to get out at the airport, of panicked Afghans rushing to board an empty aircraft, not waiting for permission, standing in the aisles and refusing to give up their seats to the ticketed passengers. With reports of gunshots and militants on the civilian side of the airport, the senior Afghan officials are torn. "We don’t know if it’s a wise decision to sit in the airport, but they fear for their lives if they go back to the city," the official says.
Claim: President Joe Biden walked “onto an empty airplane for no reason.” (Instagram posts, 2024-08-02)
Evidence (2024-08-03): A rumor involving U.S. President Joe Biden walking onto an airplane circulated online — primarily on X — following a landmark prisoner exchange with Russia in early August 2024. [...] As another piece of evidence showing the false nature of the Biden "empty plane" rumor, Getty Images hosts a picture (archived) captured by photographer Brendan Smialowski that shows Biden walking up the plane's stairs at Joint Base Andrews. The caption clearly states Biden stepped onto the plane "to talk to the pilot who flew the former prisoners." [...] In sum, Biden did not board an "empty plane." Video evidence and information from eyewitnesses show Biden walked onto the plane to visit at least one pilot and possibly other people who were still onboard.
Claim: President Joe Biden walked “onto an empty airplane for no reason.” (Instagram posts, 2024-08-02)
Evidence (2024-08-03): Biden remained aboard the plane for about two minutes, leaving Harris behind on the tarmac. He was out of view for roughly a minute and forty seconds while inside the aircraft. "President Biden wanted to personally thank the flight crew who brought these brave individuals home to their families," White House deputy press secretary Andrew Bates told DailyMail.com when asked about the president's actions aboard the plane. [...] Online users who watched Biden's trip to the aircraft had their own theories, as Biden has been seen being guided by figures like Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and former President Barack Obama at public events.
Claim: President Joe Biden walked “onto an empty airplane for no reason.” (Instagram posts, 2024-08-02)
Evidence (2024-08-03): Did President Joe Biden board the wrong, empty plane at Joint Base Andrews, where he arrived to meet three Americans freed from a prisoner swap with Russia on August 1, 2024? No, that's not true: White House spokesperson Andrew Bates told journalists that Biden walked inside the plane that had carried the released prisoners to the United States to thank the crew. The aircraft was not empty. [...] SUNDOWN JOE: Confused Biden walks into an empty plane for no reason. [...] That did not happen for "no reason," and, contrary to the claim, the plane was not empty.
Claim: President Joe Biden walked “onto an empty airplane for no reason.” (Instagram posts, 2024-08-02)
Evidence (2024-08-03): According to media reports, an unusual incident occurred when U.S. President Joe Biden mistakenly boarded an empty plane at Andrews Air Force Base, leaving onlookers in disbelief. The plane had just transported freed American prisoners, all of whom had already disembarked. However, Biden, appearing confused, entered the now-empty aircraft. The event, which was meant to welcome the prisoners released by Russia, quickly went viral on social media. Many observers called for the invocation of the 25th Amendment. One comment read, "Where is Joe Biden going? The passengers on this plane have already disembarked." [...] Joe "Sharp as a tack" Biden climbs aboard the wrong plane, while Kamalakaze looks on.
Claim: President Joe Biden walked “onto an empty airplane for no reason.” (Instagram posts, 2024-08-02)
Evidence (2022-08-22): In 2019, I wrote a piece for this magazine about Hunter Biden, the younger son of the current President, Joseph Robinette Biden, Jr. Hunter, describing his childhood in Wilmington, Delaware, told me that after church his father would sometimes drive him and his brother, Beau, through wealthy neighborhoods, where they would sneak onto empty estates that were either abandoned or on the market. If the front door was locked, the boys’ father would hoist them through a second-floor window, and they would run downstairs and let him in. If a real-estate agent arrived when they were there, Biden, who at this point was a senator, would charm the agent into giving them a tour. [...] Of the four siblings, Jimmy knew the most about his father; he asked more questions than the others. One day, he said, when he was a boy, his father drove him to a small airport near Wilmington, pointed to a Piper Cub airplane on the tarmac, and told his son to climb into the passenger seat. To Jimmy’s surprise, his father took the controls, and soon they were airborne. After circling the family’s house in Mayfield, Biden, Sr., landed the plane. "This is between me and you," Jimmy recalled his father saying. "Never tell anyone about this."
Claim: President Joe Biden walked “onto an empty airplane for no reason.” (Instagram posts, 2024-08-02)
Evidence (2024-08-02): 'President Biden wanted to personally thank the flight crew who brought these brave individuals home to their families,' White House deputy press secretary Andrew Bates told DailyMail.com when asked about what the president was doing on board the aircraft. [...] President Joe Biden boarded the aircraft that brought home Evan Gershkovich, Alsu Kurmasheva and Paul Whelan to Joint Base Andrews late Thursday [...] Online users who watched Biden's trip to the aircraft online had their own theories, after Biden has been seen being guided by figures including Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and former President Barack Obama at public events.
Claim: The United Nations sent out an email instructing staff not to use the words “invasion” or “war’” when referring to Ukraine. (Facebook posts, 2022-03-17)
Evidence (2022-03-17): An email was sent on March 7 instructing some U.N. staff members not to use the words "war" or "invasion" when discussing the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The message came from a regional office without clearance and is not considered official U.N. policy, organization officials told PolitiFact. U.N. leaders including Secretary General António Guterres and Rosemary DiCarlo, the organization’s under-secretary-general for political and peacebuilding affairs, used the words in tweets before and after the email was sent.