copenlu/druid huggingface dataset:
Claim: More people are dying now than at the peak of the pandemic; the COVID-19 vaccines are the cause of the excess deaths seen in late 2022 (Antony Newby, 2023-01-13)
Evidence (2023-01-10): Excess deaths in 2022 among worst in 50 years - Published [...] Covid is still killing people, but is involved in fewer deaths now than at the start of the pandemic. Roughly 38,000 deaths involved Covid in 2022 compared with more than 95,000 in 2020. We are still seeing more deaths overall than would be expected based on recent history. The difference in 2022 - compared with 2020 and 2021 - is that Covid deaths were one of several factors, rather than the main explanation for this excess.
Claim: More people are dying now than at the peak of the pandemic; the COVID-19 vaccines are the cause of the excess deaths seen in late 2022 (Antony Newby, 2023-01-13)
Evidence (2023-09-28): Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19 [...] Finally, the estimates of excess deaths reported here may not be due to COVID-19, either directly or indirectly. The pandemic may have changed mortality patterns for other causes of death. Upward trends in other causes of death (e.g., suicide, drug overdose, heart disease) may contribute to excess deaths in some jurisdictions. Future analyses of cause-specific excess mortality may provide additional information about these patterns. [...] Comparing these two sets of estimates — excess deaths with and without COVID-19 — can provide insight about how many excess deaths are identified as due to COVID-19, and how many excess deaths are due to other causes of death. These deaths could represent misclassified COVID-19 deaths, or potentially could be indirectly related to COVID-19. Additionally, death certificates are often initially submitted without a cause of death, and then updated when cause of death information becomes available. It may be the case that some excess deaths that are not attributed directly to COVID-19 will be updated in coming weeks with cause-of-death information that includes COVID-19. These analyses will be updated periodically, and the numbers presented will change as more data are received.
Claim: More people are dying now than at the peak of the pandemic; the COVID-19 vaccines are the cause of the excess deaths seen in late 2022 (Antony Newby, 2023-01-13)
Evidence (2023-03-27): The number of deaths registered in England and Wales from March 2020 to December 2022 remained above the five-year average in 18 out of 34 months. The total number of excess deaths from all causes registered in England and Wales between March 2020 and December 2022 was 167,356 when compared with the five-year average. Of these, 103,585 were male and 63,770 were female. [...] Assessing the impact of COVID-19 vaccination and positive SARS-CoV-2 tests on the risk of cardiac and all-cause death in young people (aged 12 to 29 years) in England (8 December 2020 to 25 May 2022) showed that there was no significant increase in cardiac or all-cause death in the 12 weeks following COVID-19 vaccination compared with more than 12 weeks after any dose. [...] Between March and December 2022, risk of death involving COVID-19 was similar for those who had received only a first or second dose and unvaccinated people, indicating possible waning in protection from vaccination over time. However, there is more uncertainty around these estimates because of smaller populations.
Claim: More people are dying now than at the peak of the pandemic; the COVID-19 vaccines are the cause of the excess deaths seen in late 2022 (Antony Newby, 2023-01-13)
Evidence (2022-05-05): New estimates from the World Health Organization (WHO) show that the full death toll associated directly or indirectly with the COVID-19 pandemic (described as "excess mortality") between 1 January 2020 and 31 December 2021 was approximately 14.9 million (range 13.3 million to 16.6 million). [...] Excess mortality includes deaths associated with COVID-19 directly (due to the disease) or indirectly (due to the pandemic’s impact on health systems and society). Deaths linked indirectly to COVID-19 are attributable to other health conditions for which people were unable to access prevention and treatment because health systems were overburdened by the pandemic. The estimated number of excess deaths can be influenced also by deaths averted during the pandemic due to lower risks of certain events, like motor-vehicle accidents or occupational injuries. [...] The estimates for a 24-month period (2020 and 2021) include a breakdown of excess mortality by age and sex. They confirm that the global death toll was higher for men than for women (57% male, 43% female) and higher among older adults. The absolute count of the excess deaths is affected by the population size. The number of excess deaths per 100,000 gives a more objective picture of the pandemic than reported COVID-19 mortality data.
Claim: More people are dying now than at the peak of the pandemic; the COVID-19 vaccines are the cause of the excess deaths seen in late 2022 (Antony Newby, 2023-01-13)
Evidence (2022-06-16): The report generally reflects data from 2020. The seven new measures related to efforts to combat COVID-19 incorporate data through the first quarter of 2022. [...] COVID-19 (7 indicators): includes measures to reflect state progress in vaccinating residents, COVID-related hospitalization rates and health system stress, and COVID-related mortality through the end of March 2022.
Claim: More people are dying now than at the peak of the pandemic; the COVID-19 vaccines are the cause of the excess deaths seen in late 2022 (Antony Newby, 2023-01-13)
Evidence (2024-02-06): The temporal correlation between reported COVID-19 deaths and excess deaths reported to non-COVID-19 natural causes offers insight into the causes of these deaths, he says. "We observed peaks in non-COVID-19 excess deaths in the same or prior month as COVID-19 deaths, a pattern consistent with these being unrecognized COVID-19 deaths that were missed due to low community awareness and a lack of COVID-19 testing." [...] For the study, Stokes, Paglino, and colleagues utilized novel statistical methods to analyze monthly data on natural-cause deaths and reported COVID-19 deaths for 3,127 counties over the first 30 months of the pandemic, from March 2020 to August 2022. They estimated that 1.2 million excess natural-cause deaths occurred in US counties during this time period, and found that roughly 163,000 of these deaths did not have COVID-19 listed at all on the death certificates. [...] Many of these geographical differences in death patterns are likely explained by differences in state policies, COVID death protocols, or political biases by local officials that influenced COVID policies, the researchers say. In rural areas, for example, COVID-19 testing was more limited, and political biases or stigma around COVID may have affected whether COVID-19 was listed on a death certificate. Conversely, reported COVID-19 deaths may have exceeded non-COVID excess deaths due to successful mitigation policies that encouraged physical distancing and masking, and likely lowered cases of other respiratory diseases. Certain state protocols, such as in Massachusetts, also enabled death investigators to list COVID-19 as an official cause of death within 60 days of a diagnosis (until March 2022), rather than the 30-day limit in other states.
Claim: More people are dying now than at the peak of the pandemic; the COVID-19 vaccines are the cause of the excess deaths seen in late 2022 (Antony Newby, 2023-01-13)
Evidence (2022-03-03): The fall and winter months of 2020 and early 2021 were the deadliest of the pandemic to date. More than 370,000 Americans died of COVID-19 between October 2020 and April 2021; the geographic distinctions that characterized the earlier waves became much less pronounced. [...] The cumulative impact of these divergent death rates is a wide difference in total deaths from COVID-19 between the most pro-Trump and most pro-Biden parts of the country. Since the pandemic began, counties representing the 20% of the population where Trump ran up his highest margins in 2020 have experienced nearly 70,000 more deaths from COVID-19 than have the counties representing the 20% of population where Biden performed best. Overall, the COVID-19 death rate in all counties Trump won in 2020 is substantially higher than it is in counties Biden won (as of the end of February 2022, 326 per 100,000 in Trump counties and 258 per 100,000 in Biden counties). [...] More Americans were vaccinated heading into the winter of 2021 and 2022 (roughly corresponding to the omicron wave), but nearly 10% of the country lived in areas where less than half of the adult population was vaccinated as of November 2021. Death rates in these low-vaccination counties were roughly twice what they were in counties that had 80% or more of their population vaccinated. (Note: The statistics here reflect the death rates in the county as a whole, not rates for vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals, though individual-level data finds that death rates among unvaccinated people are far higher than among vaccinated people.)
Claim: Unprecedented climate change has caused sea level at Sydney Harbour to rise approximately 0.0 cm over the past 140 years. (Anonymous, 2018-10-12)
Evidence (2018-10-12): This meme presents two photos of Fort Denison in Sydney Harbour, claiming they prove that no sea level rise has occurred. However, long-term tide gauge records at that very location (and elsewhere) clearly record sea level rise. These photos do not give the viewer enough information to determine how much sea level rise has occurred.
Claim: Unprecedented climate change has caused sea level at Sydney Harbour to rise approximately 0.0 cm over the past 140 years. (Anonymous, 2018-10-12)
Evidence (2024-09-09): Sea level rise is caused primarily by two factors related to global warming: the added water from melting ice sheets and glaciers, and the expansion of seawater as it warms. The first graph tracks the change in global sea level since 1993, as observed by satellites. The second graph, which is from coastal tide gauge and satellite data, shows how much sea level changed from about 1900 to 2018. Items with pluses (+) are factors that cause global sea level to increase, while minuses (-) are what cause sea level to decrease. These items are displayed at the time they were affecting sea level.
Claim: Unprecedented climate change has caused sea level at Sydney Harbour to rise approximately 0.0 cm over the past 140 years. (Anonymous, 2018-10-12)
Evidence (2024-10-08): Australia is rising by about 0.3-0.4mm a year due to glacial isostatic adjustment. This is the result of the land continuing to move upward following the loss of ice on land during previous glaciations. The land subsided under the weight of this ice and is now rebounding as the ice is gone. This slow rebound of the land provides a small offset to eustatic sea levels around Australia. [...] This is why is it important to factor in sea-level rise when we make planning decisions along the coast. Unfortunately, the rate of sea-level rise over the coming century remains highly uncertain, making it difficult to include in coastal planning. [...] Most of the impacts of sea-level rise around Australia’s coast will be felt in combination with storm events, such as east coast lows or tropical cyclones. A high water level plus a storm surge on top leads to a storm or "king" tide. In combination with storm waves, it can cause significant coastal erosion and flooding.
Claim: Unprecedented climate change has caused sea level at Sydney Harbour to rise approximately 0.0 cm over the past 140 years. (Anonymous, 2018-10-12)
Evidence (2022-04-06): The conditions have sparked concerns over damage from erosion, with Waverley Council Mayor Paula Masselos warning the state's entire coastline has been affected. [...] And it's not just in NSW. Rising sea levels are posing a risk for properties all across Australia — now and many decades into the future. [...] For example, last year construction began on a controversial 1.3-metre sea wall from Collaroy to South Narrabeen in Sydney's north, designed to prevent future erosion threatening beachfront homes.
Claim: Unprecedented climate change has caused sea level at Sydney Harbour to rise approximately 0.0 cm over the past 140 years. (Anonymous, 2018-10-12)
Evidence (2024-09-25): It is estimated that the oceans have risen by approximately 20-23 centimetres (8-9 inches) since 1880. [...] Rising sea levels are the result of ocean warming and the melting of glaciers and ice sheets, phenomena which are the direct consequences of climate change. [...] Quite simply, sea level rise is a symptom of climate change.
Claim: Unprecedented climate change has caused sea level at Sydney Harbour to rise approximately 0.0 cm over the past 140 years. (Anonymous, 2018-10-12)
Evidence (2024-09-20): Global mean sea level is the average height of the world’s oceans. It has been steadily increasing over the past century, primarily due to two major factors: the thermal expansion of ocean water as it warms and the addition of water from melting ice sheets and glaciers. This long-term rise is a clear indicator of ongoing climate change, driven by human activities that add greenhouse gases to the atmosphere.
Claim: Unprecedented climate change has caused sea level at Sydney Harbour to rise approximately 0.0 cm over the past 140 years. (Anonymous, 2018-10-12)
Evidence (2014-03-23): The rate of sea-level rise [...] Present-day sea-level rise is a major indicator of climate change1. Since the early 1990s, sea level rose at a mean rate of ∼3.1 mm yr−1 (refs 2, 3). However, over the last decade a slowdown of this rate, of about 30%, has been recorded4,5,6,7,8. It coincides with a plateau in Earth’s mean surface temperature evolution, known as the recent pause in warming1,9,10,11,12. Here we present an analysis based on sea-level data from the altimetry record of the past ∼20 years that separates interannual natural variability in sea level from the longer-term change probably related to anthropogenic global warming. The most prominent signature in the global mean sea level interannual variability is caused by El Niño–Southern Oscillation, through its impact on the global water cycle13,14,15,16. We find that when correcting for interannual variability, the past decade’s slowdown of the global mean sea level disappears, leading to a similar rate of sea-level rise (of 3.3 ± 0.4 mm yr−1) during the first and second decade of the altimetry era. Our results confirm the need for quantifying and further removing from the climate records the short-term natural climate variability if one wants to extract the global warming signal10. [...] Church, J. A. & White, N. J. Sea-level rise from the late 19th to the early 21st century. Surveys Geophys.32, 585–602 (2011).
Claim: Unprecedented climate change has caused sea level at Sydney Harbour to rise approximately 0.0 cm over the past 140 years. (Anonymous, 2018-10-12)
Evidence (2020-05-07): What causes sea-level rise? Most of the observed sea-level rise (about 3 mm per year) is coming from the meltwater of land-based ice sheets and mountain glaciers, which adds to the ocean’s volume (about 2 mm per year combined), and from thermal expansion, or the ocean water’s expansion as it warms (roughly 1 mm per year). [...] You can read more about what is causing the rise and how we observe sea-level change.
Claim: Unprecedented climate change has caused sea level at Sydney Harbour to rise approximately 0.0 cm over the past 140 years. (Anonymous, 2018-10-12)
Evidence (2022-10-26): Tide gauges and other recordings show that sea levels in Sydney Harbor have steadily risen over the last 90 years, albeit at a slower rate than other shorelines across the globe. [...] Sea level is rising at Sydney Harbor [...] Based on our research, we rate FALSE the claim that photos prove the sea level hasn't risen in Sydney Harbor. Experts say photos cannot be used to accurately ascertain sea-level change over time. And, sea levels in Sydney Harbor are indeed rising, according to tide gauge data and experts.
Claim: Unprecedented climate change has caused sea level at Sydney Harbour to rise approximately 0.0 cm over the past 140 years. (Anonymous, 2018-10-12)
Evidence (2023-09-11): The impact of sea level rise in NSW [...] Sea level rise is a major threat for NSW. [...] Sea level rise driving increasingly predictable coastal inundation in Sydney, Australia - Academic paper
Claim: Unprecedented climate change has caused sea level at Sydney Harbour to rise approximately 0.0 cm over the past 140 years. (Anonymous, 2018-10-12)
Evidence (2021-11-16): That was until about 8000 years ago, when the rate of sea level rise slowed to the point that it took millennia, rather than centuries, to rise a few metres. Then in the last 2000 years, sea level rise slowed virtually to a standstill – changing by just fractions of millimetres per year over this period, Prof. Church says. [...] While a changing climate has always been part of a natural cycle throughout the Earth’s history, the accelerated warming and subsequent rise in sea level has been boosted by a human-induced rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide (and other greenhouse gases). Carbon emissions dating back to the industrial revolution in the early 19th century have contributed to the greenhouse effect by trapping heat from the sun that would otherwise have been reflected back into space. [...] The rule of thumb is, for every 10cm rise in sea level, you increase the frequency of these one in 100 year coastal flooding events by a factor of three, Prof. Church says. Of course, the high sea level water mark, which you could observe at places like Sydney Harbour, will be higher.
Claim: Unprecedented climate change has caused sea level at Sydney Harbour to rise approximately 0.0 cm over the past 140 years. (Anonymous, 2018-10-12)
Evidence (2022-08-11): Scientists have found that global mean sea level—shown in the line plot above and below—has risen 10.1 centimeters (3.98 inches) since 1992. Over the past 140 years, satellites and tide gauges together show that global sea level has risen 21 to 24 centimeters (8 to 9 inches). [...] "With 30 years of data, we can finally see what a huge impact we have on the Earth’s climate," said Josh Willis, an oceanographer at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory and NASA’s project scientist for Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich. "The rise of sea level caused by human interference with the climate now dwarfs the natural cycles. And it is happening faster and faster every decade." [...] "What stands out from the satellite altimetry record is that the rise over 30 years is about ten times bigger than the natural exchange of water between ocean and land in a year," Willis said. "In other words, the human-caused rise in global sea level is now ten times bigger than the natural cycles."
Claim: Unprecedented climate change has caused sea level at Sydney Harbour to rise approximately 0.0 cm over the past 140 years. (Anonymous, 2018-10-12)
Evidence (2024-08-27): In 2021, the IPCC concluded with high confidence that global mean sea level is rising at rates unprecedented in at least the last 3,000 years due to human-induced global warming. This technical brief provides a summary of the latest science on sea-level rise and its present-day and projected impacts — including coastal flooding — at a global and regional level, with a focus on major coastal cities in the Group of Twenty (G20) countries and the Pacific Small Island Developing States. The findings demonstrate that sea-level rise is affecting the lives and livelihoods of coastal communities and low-lying island nations around the world today, and it is accelerating. The climate actions and decisions taken by political leaders and policymakers in the coming months and years will determine how devastating these impacts become and how quickly they worsen.
Claim: Unprecedented climate change has caused sea level at Sydney Harbour to rise approximately 0.0 cm over the past 140 years. (Anonymous, 2018-10-12)
Evidence (2019-10-28): In the last 140 years, global mean sea level has risen by about 15 cm. Not sure about my eyes, but detecting a 15cm sea-level difference from these pictures seems difficult. What you could see on the picture is the dark brownish band that is much larger on the right picture than on the left. Assuming that this brownish band denotes the tidal range, the right picture has been taken at low tide, while the left picture has been taken at a much higher tidal level. In Sydney, the typical tidal range is about 1 meter. Therefore, if you compare two pictures to derive sea level changes, the odds are that you’re comparing tidal levels rather than long-term sea-level changes. The catch with sea level is that it’s not just the mean level that rises, but the high tide level will also rise. Therefore, without detailed information on the exact timing of the picture and a tidal chart, one simply cannot derive decimeter-accuracy estimates of sea-level change from these two pictures. [...] Long story short: from these pictures, one cannot conclude that sea level in Sydney has risen by 0.0 cm. In fact, two independent tide gauge records show that sea level in Sydney has risen by about 12 cm since the end of the 19th century.
Claim: Unprecedented climate change has caused sea level at Sydney Harbour to rise approximately 0.0 cm over the past 140 years. (Anonymous, 2018-10-12)
Evidence (2023-03-06): We found by conducting a reverse image search that iterations of the same meme have been shared online since at least 2018. In July 2022, it was shared to Twitter, falsely claiming that "unprecedented climate change" had caused "sea level at Sydney Harbour to rise approximately 0.0 cm over the past 140 years." [...] To say that the sea level in the Sydney, Australia region have not risen since the 19th-century is false. While sea level rise in that specific area is less than the global average, NOAA reports that the relative sea level trend is .75 millimeters each year, or .029 inches. It's an admittedly small level and one that may not be detectable by the naked eye, but it's a rise nonetheless. Sea level trends of Fort Denison in Sydney Harbor, Australia. NOAA
Claim: Unprecedented climate change has caused sea level at Sydney Harbour to rise approximately 0.0 cm over the past 140 years. (Anonymous, 2018-10-12)
Evidence (2016-02-23): Instead, global sea level rose by about 14 centimeters, or 5.5 inches, from 1900 to 2000. That’s a substantial increase, especially for vulnerable, low-lying coastal areas. "The 20th century rise was extraordinary in the context of the last three millennia – and the rise over the last two decades has been even faster," said Robert Kopp, the lead author. [...] Global sea level has been rising for the past several thousand years, owing to the retreat of glaciers from the last ice age. The key issue is whether the rate of sea level rise is accelerating owing to anthropogenic global warming. It is seen from the figure above that the rate of sea level rise during 1930-1950 was comparable to, if not larger than, the value in recent years. The challenges to determining global sea level rise, particularly over the past 100 or 1000 years, are substantial. [...] Sea level rise is the main ‘danger’ from human caused climate change (any increase in extreme weather events is hypothesized rather demonstrated using historical data, with possible exception of heat waves in a few regions).