copenlu/druid huggingface dataset:
Claim: Global warming is just the end of the Little Ice Age; Warming is slower than climate models forecasted; Carbon dioxide is beneficial to Earth; Global warming is not intensifying or increasing the frequency of natural disasters (Naveen Athrappully, 2023-08-19)
Evidence (2024-01-01): Recent estimates of the increase in global average temperature since the end of the last ice age are 4 to 5 °C (7 to 9 °F). That change occurred over a period of about 7,000 years, starting 18,000 years ago. CO2 has risen more than 40% in just the past 200 years, much of this since the 1970s, contributing to human alteration of the planet’s energy budget that has so far warmed Earth by about 1 °C (1.8 °F). If the rise in CO2 continues unchecked, warming of the same magnitude as the increase out of the ice age can be expected by the end of this century or soon after. This speed of warming is more than ten times that at the end of an ice age, the fastest known natural sustained change on a global scale.
Claim: Global warming is just the end of the Little Ice Age; Warming is slower than climate models forecasted; Carbon dioxide is beneficial to Earth; Global warming is not intensifying or increasing the frequency of natural disasters (Naveen Athrappully, 2023-08-19)
Evidence (2021-11-10): A University of Arizona-led effort to reconstruct Earth's climate since the last ice age, about 24,000 years ago, highlights the main drivers of climate change and how far out of bounds human activity has pushed the climate system. [...] - It verified that the main drivers of climate change since the last ice age are rising greenhouse gas concentrations and the retreat of the ice sheets. [...] An online search of "global temperature change since the last ice age" would produce a graph of global temperature change over time that was created eight years ago.
Claim: Global warming is just the end of the Little Ice Age; Warming is slower than climate models forecasted; Carbon dioxide is beneficial to Earth; Global warming is not intensifying or increasing the frequency of natural disasters (Naveen Athrappully, 2023-08-19)
Evidence (2021-08-09): The report projects that in the coming decades climate changes will increase in all regions. For 1.5°C of global warming, there will be increasing heat waves, longer warm seasons and shorter cold seasons. At 2°C of global warming, heat extremes would more often reach critical tolerance thresholds for agriculture and health, the report shows. [...] - Climate change is intensifying the water cycle. This brings more intense rainfall and associated flooding, as well as more intense drought in many regions. [...] - Further warming will amplify permafrost thawing, and the loss of seasonal snow cover, melting of glaciers and ice sheets, and loss of summer Arctic sea ice.
Claim: Global warming is just the end of the Little Ice Age; Warming is slower than climate models forecasted; Carbon dioxide is beneficial to Earth; Global warming is not intensifying or increasing the frequency of natural disasters (Naveen Athrappully, 2023-08-19)
Evidence (2010-06-03): Global warming is the unusually rapid increase in Earth’s average surface temperature over the past century primarily due to the greenhouse gases released by people burning fossil fuels. [...] Global warming is the unusually rapid increase in Earth’s average surface temperature over the past century primarily due to the greenhouse gases released as people burn fossil fuels. The global average surface temperature rose 0.6 to 0.9 degrees Celsius (1.1 to 1.6° F) between 1906 and 2005, and the rate of temperature increase has nearly doubled in the last 50 years. Temperatures are certain to go up further. [...] For most places, global warming will result in more frequent hot days and fewer cool days, with the greatest warming occurring over land. Longer, more intense heat waves will become more common. Storms, floods, and droughts will generally be more severe as precipitation patterns change. Hurricanes may increase in intensity due to warmer ocean surface temperatures.
Claim: Global warming is just the end of the Little Ice Age; Warming is slower than climate models forecasted; Carbon dioxide is beneficial to Earth; Global warming is not intensifying or increasing the frequency of natural disasters (Naveen Athrappully, 2023-08-19)
Evidence (2023-04-17): For the set of likely future scenarios we face today, the climate science literature has not identified any approaching global tipping point after which runaway climate change intensifies beyond humanity’s ability to arrest it. While tipping elements of the climate system—like Arctic permafrost thaw and loss of Amazon forest area—do influence total warming, the magnitude of this influence is substantially smaller than the societal factors that will ultimately determine the planet’s climate trajectory. [...] It isn’t. And it’s important to understand that it isn’t. Taken at rational face value, the feeling that the planet is just years away from sliding beyond a catastrophic point of no return invites unproductive fatalism. At the same time, the perception of an imminent climate cliff seemingly rules out long-term planning in favor of emergency measures, skewing discussion of climate policies in ways that can be counterproductive. [...] In fact, they are not irrevocably bad. The consequences of climate change are still within the power of human beings to mitigate, nor will humans ever be powerless to reduce or cushion the impacts of a warmer world through adaptation. The research literature shows that even middle-of-the-road climate mitigation pathways can dramatically reduce the rate and extent of permafrost thaw and limit the long-term loss of ice sheets. Limiting end-of-century warming to 2-3°C will essentially eliminate any risk of significant climate feedbacks from seafloor-frozen methane hydrates. And a combination of budding progress toward decarbonization and more recent climate research has already greatly reduced the likelihood of the worst-case future climate scenarios.
Claim: Global warming is just the end of the Little Ice Age; Warming is slower than climate models forecasted; Carbon dioxide is beneficial to Earth; Global warming is not intensifying or increasing the frequency of natural disasters (Naveen Athrappully, 2023-08-19)
Evidence (2014-04-23): The climate change resulting from human-caused emissions of carbon dioxide will persist for decades to millennia. Self-reinforcing cycles within the climate system have the potential to accelerate human-induced change and even shift Earth’s climate system into new states that are very different from those experienced in the recent past. Future changes outside the range projected by climate models cannot be ruled out, and due to their systematic tendency to underestimate temperature change during past warm periods, models may be more likely to underestimate than to overestimate long-term future change. [...] Humanity’s effect on Earth’s climate system since the start of the industrial era, through the large-scale combustion of fossil fuels, widespread deforestation, and other activities, is unprecedented. Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations are now higher than at any time in the last 3 million years,191 when both global average temperature and sea level were significantly higher than today.24 One possible analog for the rapid pace of change occurring today is the relatively abrupt warming of 9°–14°F (5°–8°C) that occurred during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), approximately 55–56 million years ago.192,193,194,195 Although there were significant differences in both background conditions and factors affecting climate during the PETM, it is estimated that the rate of maximum sustained carbon release was less than 1.1 gigatons of carbon (GtC) per year (about a tenth of present-day emissions rates). Present-day emissions of nearly 10 GtC per year suggest that there is no analog for this century any time in at least the last 50 million years.
Claim: Global warming is just the end of the Little Ice Age; Warming is slower than climate models forecasted; Carbon dioxide is beneficial to Earth; Global warming is not intensifying or increasing the frequency of natural disasters (Naveen Athrappully, 2023-08-19)
Evidence (2021-02-25): You’ve probably already read that carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases act like a blanket or a cap, trapping some of the heat that Earth might have otherwise radiated out into space. That’s the simple answer. But how exactly do certain molecules trap heat? The answer there requires diving into physics and chemistry. [...] With CO2 and other greenhouse gases, it’s different. Carbon dioxide, for example, absorbs energy at a variety of wavelengths between 2,000 and 15,000 nanometers — a range that overlaps with that of infrared energy. As CO2 soaks up this infrared energy, it vibrates and re-emits the infrared energy back in all directions. About half of that energy goes out into space, and about half of it returns to Earth as heat, contributing to the ‘greenhouse effect.’ [...] Unfortunately, we don’t have thousands of years to wait for nature to absorb the flood of CO2. By then, billions of people would have suffered and died from the impacts of climate change; there would be mass extinctions, and our beautiful planet would become unrecognizable. We can avoid much of that damage and suffering through a combination of decarbonizing our energy supply, pulling CO2 out the atmosphere, and developing more sustainable ways of thriving.
Claim: Global warming is just the end of the Little Ice Age; Warming is slower than climate models forecasted; Carbon dioxide is beneficial to Earth; Global warming is not intensifying or increasing the frequency of natural disasters (Naveen Athrappully, 2023-08-19)
Evidence (2020-10-29): To learn more, go here and here. + - If Earth has warmed and cooled naturally, why are scientists so concerned about today’s global warming? Experts are concerned about today’s global warming because it is different from previous warming periods in three key ways: the reason, the rate, and the repercussions. Ice ages and warm periods over the past million years or more were triggered by variations in the amount of sunlight reaching the Northern Hemisphere during summer and then amplified by other climate feedbacks. But today’s warming is mainly due to humans increasing the abundance of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere. [1] Today’s warming is occurring much more quickly than previous interglacial episodes. In transitions from an ice age to an interglacial, it took 5,000–10,000 years for the temperature to rise between 5 and 9° Fahrenheit (3–5° Celsius). Humans could witness the same amount of global warming within the next 80 years if we continue emitting heat-trapping gases at today’s rate.
Claim: Global warming is just the end of the Little Ice Age; Warming is slower than climate models forecasted; Carbon dioxide is beneficial to Earth; Global warming is not intensifying or increasing the frequency of natural disasters (Naveen Athrappully, 2023-08-19)
Evidence (2024-09-25): Climate change is widespread, rapid, and intensifying, and some trends are now irreversible, at least during the present time frame, according to the latest much-anticipated Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, released on Monday. [...] This includes increases in the frequency and intensity of heat extremes, marine heatwaves, and heavy precipitation; agricultural and ecological droughts in some regions; the proportion of intense tropical cyclones; as well as reductions in Arctic sea ice, snow cover and permafrost. [...] But it won’t be just about temperature. For example, climate change is intensifying the natural production of water – the water cycle. This brings more intense rainfall and associated flooding, as well as more intense drought in many regions.
Claim: Global warming is just the end of the Little Ice Age; Warming is slower than climate models forecasted; Carbon dioxide is beneficial to Earth; Global warming is not intensifying or increasing the frequency of natural disasters (Naveen Athrappully, 2023-08-19)
Evidence (2022-04-04): Worldwide observed and anticipated climatic changes for the twenty-first century and global warming are significant global changes that have been encountered during the past 65 years. Climate change (CC) is an inter-governmental complex challenge globally with its influence over various components of the ecological, environmental, socio-political, and socio-economic disciplines (Adger et al. 2005; Leal Filho et al. 2021; Feliciano et al. 2022). Climate change involves heightened temperatures across numerous worlds (Battisti and Naylor 2009; Schuurmans 2021; Weisheimer and Palmer 2005; Yadav et al. 2015). With the onset of the industrial revolution, the problem of earth climate was amplified manifold (Leppänen et al. 2014). It is reported that the immediate attention and due steps might increase the probability of overcoming its devastating impacts. It is not plausible to interpret the exact consequences of climate change (CC) on a sectoral basis (Izaguirre et al. 2021; Jurgilevich et al. 2017), which is evident by the emerging level of recognition plus the inclusion of climatic uncertainties at both local and national level of policymaking (Ayers et al. 2014). [...] Natural disasters and climate change’s socio-economic consequences
Claim: Global warming is just the end of the Little Ice Age; Warming is slower than climate models forecasted; Carbon dioxide is beneficial to Earth; Global warming is not intensifying or increasing the frequency of natural disasters (Naveen Athrappully, 2023-08-19)
Evidence (2011-03-03): Human-induced global warming has already caused multiple observed changes in the climate system (high confidence). Changes include increases in both land and ocean temperatures, as well as more frequent heatwaves in most land regions (high confidence). There is also (high confidence) global warming has resulted in an increase in the frequency and duration of marine heatwaves. Further, there is substantial evidence that human-induced global warming has led to an increase in the frequency, intensity and/or amount of heavy precipitation events at the global scale (medium confidence), as well as an increased risk of drought in the Mediterranean region (medium confidence). {3.3.1, 3.3.2, 3.3.3, 3.3.4, Box 3.4} [...] Several regional changes in climate are assessed to occur with global warming up to 1.5°C as compared to pre-industrial levels, including warming of extreme temperatures in many regions (high confidence), increases in frequency, intensity and/or amount of heavy precipitation in several regions (high confidence), and an increase in intensity or frequency of droughts in some regions (medium confidence). {3.3.1, 3.3.2, 3.3.3, 3.3.4, Table 3.2}
Claim: Global warming is just the end of the Little Ice Age; Warming is slower than climate models forecasted; Carbon dioxide is beneficial to Earth; Global warming is not intensifying or increasing the frequency of natural disasters (Naveen Athrappully, 2023-08-19)
Evidence (2024-10-07): The IPCC Special Report highlights the urgency of prioritizing timely, ambitious and coordinated action to address unprecedented and enduring changes in the ocean and cryosphere. Without a radical change in human behavior, hundreds of millions of people could suffer from rising sea levels, frequent natural disasters and food shortages, it warns. [...] Throughout the world, people are feeling the impacts of the climate and environmental crises most strongly through water: the land is drying up, fertile grounds are turning to dust and drought is prevailing. Since 1970, weather, climate and water hazards accounted for 50 percent of all disasters and 45 percent of all reported deaths. The UN Convention to Combat Desertification’s Drought in Numbers report looks at worrying trends in the duration and intensity of droughts and the devastating impact on ecological systems and human survival.
Claim: Global warming is just the end of the Little Ice Age; Warming is slower than climate models forecasted; Carbon dioxide is beneficial to Earth; Global warming is not intensifying or increasing the frequency of natural disasters (Naveen Athrappully, 2023-08-19)
Evidence (2022-06-15): Earth's climate has changed throughout history. Just in the last 800,000 years, there have been eight cycles of ice ages and warmer periods, with the end of the last ice age about 11,700 years ago marking the beginning of the modern climate era — and of human civilization. Most of these climate changes are attributed to very small variations in Earth’s orbit that change the amount of solar energy our planet receives. [...] Ice cores drawn from Greenland, Antarctica, and tropical mountain glaciers show that Earth’s climate responds to changes in greenhouse gas levels. Ancient evidence can also be found in tree rings, ocean sediments, coral reefs, and layers of sedimentary rocks. This ancient, or paleoclimate, evidence reveals that current warming is occurring roughly 10 times faster than the average rate of warming after an ice age. Carbon dioxide from human activities is increasing about 250 times faster than it did from natural sources after the last Ice Age.3 [...] In 1938, Guy Callendar connected carbon dioxide increases in Earth’s atmosphere to global warming. In 1941, Milutin Milankovic linked ice ages to Earth’s orbital characteristics. Gilbert Plass formulated the Carbon Dioxide Theory of Climate Change in 1956.
Claim: Global warming is just the end of the Little Ice Age; Warming is slower than climate models forecasted; Carbon dioxide is beneficial to Earth; Global warming is not intensifying or increasing the frequency of natural disasters (Naveen Athrappully, 2023-08-19)
Evidence (2008-07-15): An entirely different approach, based on more than 1,000 years of Atlantic hurricane activity as inferred from paleoclimate indicators (pre-historic geologic records) find century-scale shifts in regional activity, but no clear indicator of unusually high activity during the past century in comparison to the 1,000+ year reconstruction (Wallace et al 2021; Yang et al. 2024). Similarly, Winkler et al. (2023) suggests that hurricanes near the Bahamaian Archipelago in the western Atlantic occurred more frequently during the Little Ice Age (from about 1300-1850 CE) than over the observed period since 1850 CE. This finding is important since the anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing of climate was much weaker during the Little Ice Age than in the more industrialized period since 1850 CE. [...] An increase in the upper-limit intensity of hurricanes with global warming was suggested on theoretical grounds by M.I.T. Professor Kerry Emanuel in 1987. In the late 1990s, Knutson, Tuleya, and Kurihara at GFDL/NOAA began simulating samples of hurricanes from both the present-day climate and from a greenhouse-gas warmed climate. This was done by "telescoping-in" on coarsely resolved tropical storms in GFDL’s global climate model using the high-resolution GFDL hurricane prediction model (Figure 16). A research report describing this work was published in Science (1998), with a more detailed paper in Climate Dynamics (1999, vol. 15). All of these studies, as well as our more recent ones, include the moderating effect of atmospheric stabilization aloft under high CO2 conditions, rather than simply increasing the sea surface temperature alone.
Claim: Global warming is just the end of the Little Ice Age; Warming is slower than climate models forecasted; Carbon dioxide is beneficial to Earth; Global warming is not intensifying or increasing the frequency of natural disasters (Naveen Athrappully, 2023-08-19)
Evidence (2023-09-04): CLAIM "Natural variation explains a substantial part of global warming observed since 1850;" no statistical evidence that global warming is intensifying natural disasters, or making them more frequent. [...] Human additions of CO2 are in the margin of error of current measurements and the gradual increase in CO2 is mainly from oceans degassing as the planet slowly emerges from the last ice age. [...] CO2 can increase plant growth in greenhouses while also negatively affecting ecosystems and human societies
Claim: Global warming is just the end of the Little Ice Age; Warming is slower than climate models forecasted; Carbon dioxide is beneficial to Earth; Global warming is not intensifying or increasing the frequency of natural disasters (Naveen Athrappully, 2023-08-19)
Evidence (2022-05-09): Global warming describes the current rise in the average temperature of Earth’s air and oceans. Global warming is often described as the most recent example of climate change. [...] Earth’s climate has changed many times. Our planet has gone through multiple ice ages, in which ice sheets and glaciers covered large portions of Earth. It has also gone through warm periods when temperatures were higher than they are today. [...] IPCC data also suggest that the frequency of heat waves and extreme precipitation will increase. Weather patterns such as storms and tropical cyclones will become more intense. Storms themselves may be stronger, more frequent, and longer-lasting. They would be followed by stronger storm surges, the immediate rise in sea level following storms. Storm surges are particularly damaging to coastal areas because their effects (flooding, erosion, damage to buildings and crops) are lasting.
Claim: That one little burp by Mt. Etna has already put more than 10,000 times the CO2 into the atmosphere than mankind has in our entire time on the Earth (Anonymous, 2019-10-31)
Evidence (2019-10-31): It's true that carbon dioxide is among the gases emitted by volcanic activity. However, it's clear from several lines of evidence that human activities are producing far more carbon dioxide, and volcanoes are not responsible for the observed increase in greenhouse gases.
Claim: That one little burp by Mt. Etna has already put more than 10,000 times the CO2 into the atmosphere than mankind has in our entire time on the Earth (Anonymous, 2019-10-31)
Evidence (2022-06-10): A post shared on Facebook claims a recent volcanic eruption at Mount Etna emitted 10,000 times more carbon dioxide (CO2) into the atmosphere than mankind has in its entire history on Earth. [...] The Facebook post makes the claim that a recent "burp" from the volcano emitted a huge amount of CO2 into the atmosphere. "But don’t worry a scam is in the works to tax you your minuscule footprint…." This claim is incorrect. While there are scholarly articles documenting carbon emissions from Mt. Etna’s recent eruptions, there are no articles making the specific claim offered in the Facebook post. Human activities emit approximately 60 times the amount of carbon dioxide that volcanoes do per year, according to Climate.gov.
Claim: That one little burp by Mt. Etna has already put more than 10,000 times the CO2 into the atmosphere than mankind has in our entire time on the Earth (Anonymous, 2019-10-31)
Evidence (2023-06-16): A crackling burst cut through the air on June 17, 1923, as Mount Etna—one of the world’s most active volcanoes—unleashed a mighty eruption. After burbling and shaking that fateful day, the peak convulsed, emitting an uproar like "the discharge of a thousand massed guns," according to a dispatch from Rome to the Australian Mercury newspaper the next day. [...] While this eruption—and most others at Etna since—haven’t caused many deaths, the volcano is capable of intense destruction. During Etna’s most damaging eruption, in 1669, lava flowed from the peak for months, stretching more than ten miles away and entombing villages and fields that lay in its path. [...] No matter the magmatic source, Etna’s recent explosive vim and vigor—with more paroxysms in the last 25 years than the preceding 300—has made one thing clear: The volcano has much more firepower in store. "The activity at the moment is absolutely huge," Murray says. "And it looks as if the eruption rate is still going to climb."