copenlu/druid huggingface dataset:
Claim: The consensus among scientists and policy-makers is that we’ll pass this point of no return if the global mean temperature rises by more than two degrees Celsius (Jonathan Franzen, 2019-09-17)
Evidence (2024-09-10): For that reason, the 196 signatories to the Paris Agreement, signed in 2015, committed to keeping the mean rise in global temperatures below 2° C (3.6° F) above pre-industrial levels and preferably limit any increase to 1.5° C (2.7° F). Participants in the 28th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP 28), taking place in Dubai November 30-December 12, will be expected to update their progress on meeting those goals. [...] Is two degrees in fact too much warming? "Well, 1.2°C warming, which is where we are, is too much," says Mann. "We’re already seeing devastating consequences. So, it’s really a question of just how bad we’re willing to let it get. 1.5°C would be bad, two degrees really bad, and three degrees is perhaps, as I argue in my new book Our Fragile Moment, civilization ending."
Claim: The consensus among scientists and policy-makers is that we’ll pass this point of no return if the global mean temperature rises by more than two degrees Celsius (Jonathan Franzen, 2019-09-17)
Evidence (2015-08-20): Contrast this with the results of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Third and Fourth Assessment Reports, which state unequivocally that average global temperatures have risen (Houghton et al. 2001; Alley et al. 2007). [...] This is consistent with the analysis of historian Spencer Weart, who concluded that scientists achieved consensus in 1995 (see Weart 2008). [...] This is evident when the three IPCC assessments—1990, 1995, 2001—are compared (Houghton et al. 1990, 2001; Bruce et al. 1996; Watson et al. 1996; Metz et al. 2001; Watson 2001; see also Weart 2008).
Claim: The consensus among scientists and policy-makers is that we’ll pass this point of no return if the global mean temperature rises by more than two degrees Celsius (Jonathan Franzen, 2019-09-17)
Evidence (2023-10-09): Bridging the gap between science and policy for a sustainable future [...] To make an impact, scientists should engage with stakeholders and policy-makers to understand the needs and constraints of decision-making. Working at the intersection of science and policy, where knowledge and action converge, paves the way for a sustainable and thriving future. [...] The author declares no competing interests.
Claim: The consensus among scientists and policy-makers is that we’ll pass this point of no return if the global mean temperature rises by more than two degrees Celsius (Jonathan Franzen, 2019-09-17)
Evidence (2011-11-20): Doran, P. T. & Zimmerman, M. K. Examining the scientific consensus on climate change. EOS Trans. AGU90,http://dx.doi.org./10.1029/2009EO030002 (2009). [...] Revkin, A. C. Bush aide softened greenhouse gas links to global warming. The New York Times (8 June 2005); available via http://go.nature.com/8lUN4e. [...] Ding, D., Maibach, E., Zhao, X. et al. Support for climate policy and societal action are linked to perceptions about scientific agreement.
Claim: The consensus among scientists and policy-makers is that we’ll pass this point of no return if the global mean temperature rises by more than two degrees Celsius (Jonathan Franzen, 2019-09-17)
Evidence (2021-10-28): The recently published Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) Synthesis Report, says "it is unequivocal that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, ocean and land", and warns that the Paris Agreement goals of 1.5°C and 2°C above pre-industrial levels will be exceeded during this century without dramatic emissions reductions. In reaching this conclusion, it is important to distinguish between changes caused by human activities altering the atmosphere’s chemistry, and climate variability caused by natural factors. [...] Current rates of global warming are unprecedented in more than 2,000 years and temperatures now exceed the warmest (multi-century) period in more than 100,000 years. Global average surface temperature for the decade from 2011-20 was about 1.1°C higher than in 1850-1900. Each of the past four decades has been warmer than any preceding decade since 1850, when reliable weather observations began.
Claim: The consensus among scientists and policy-makers is that we’ll pass this point of no return if the global mean temperature rises by more than two degrees Celsius (Jonathan Franzen, 2019-09-17)
Evidence (2022-04-04): In the scenarios we assessed, limiting warming to around 1.5°C (2.7°F) requires global greenhouse gas emissions to peak before 2025 at the latest, and be reduced by 43% by 2030; at the same time, methane would also need to be reduced by about a third. Even if we do this, it is almost inevitable that we will temporarily exceed this temperature threshold but could return to below it by the end of the century. "It’s now or never, if we want to limit global warming to 1.5°C (2.7°F)," said Skea. "Without immediate and deep emissions reductions across all sectors, it will be impossible." [...] This assessment shows that limiting warming to around 2°C (3.6°F) still requires global greenhouse gas emissions to peak before 2025 at the latest, and be reduced by a quarter by 2030.
Claim: The consensus among scientists and policy-makers is that we’ll pass this point of no return if the global mean temperature rises by more than two degrees Celsius (Jonathan Franzen, 2019-09-17)
Evidence (2023-11-21): Average global temperatures hit nearly 1.3 Â°C above preindustrial levels in 2022 and are expected to reach even higher this year. At current trends, the world could surpass 1.5 Â°C of warming within a decade, if not sooner. Assuming moderate emissions into the future, climate models assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change project a range of warming (orange) by 2100 that is well above 2 Â°C. [...] âWe could effectively hit 1.5 degrees of warming each year for a whole decade before the long-term average passes that mark,â says Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist at Berkeley Earth, a non-profit organization in California that tracks global temperatures. It wonât stop there. Models that use projected carbon emissions estimate that global temperatures will increase by 2.4â2.6âÂ°C above pre-industrial values by 2100, on the basis of current pledges that countries have made as part of the Paris agreement.
Claim: The consensus among scientists and policy-makers is that we’ll pass this point of no return if the global mean temperature rises by more than two degrees Celsius (Jonathan Franzen, 2019-09-17)
Evidence (2021-06-29): If you have a question you’d like an expert to answer, please send it to climate.change@stuff.co.nz [...] This will be followed by WGII and WGIII reports in February and March 2022, and the Synthesis Report in September 2022 — in time for the first UNFCCC Global Stocktake when countries will review progress towards the goal of the Paris Agreement to keep warming below 2°C. [...] on global warming of 1.5°C (2018)
Claim: The consensus among scientists and policy-makers is that we’ll pass this point of no return if the global mean temperature rises by more than two degrees Celsius (Jonathan Franzen, 2019-09-17)
Evidence (2021-10-21): However, the degree of consensus was higher among scientists with greater climate science expertise. Among actively-publishing climate scientists, 97.4% agreed that humans were causing global warming. [...] Our research, published in Environmental Research Letters, found that the scientific consensus had strengthened even further since 2009. Among Earth scientists overall, there was now 91.1% agreement on human-caused global warming, an 11% jump from the 80% figure in 2009. [...] This strengthening consensus among the scientific community – even among traditionally sceptical fields – is also reflected in other parts of society that have in the past been resistant to accepting climate science.
Claim: The consensus among scientists and policy-makers is that we’ll pass this point of no return if the global mean temperature rises by more than two degrees Celsius (Jonathan Franzen, 2019-09-17)
Evidence (2024-10-09): These new findings show that it is important to continue emphasizing the consensus among climate scientists -- be it in the media or in our everyday lives when we have conversations about climate change and its impacts. "Especially in the face of increasing politicization of science and misinformation about climate change, cultivating universal awareness of the scientific consensus will help protect public understanding of the issue," adds senior author Sander van der Linden from the University of Cambridge. "Beyond climate change communication, these findings also underscore the importance of testing previous findings in behavioral science globally. Such endeavors are only possible if we bring together researchers worldwide," summarizes study co-lead Sandra Geiger. [...] - Bojana Većkalov, Sandra J. Geiger, František Bartoš, Mathew P. White, Bastiaan T. Rutjens, Frenk van Harreveld, Federica Stablum, Berkan Akın, Alaa Aldoh, Jinhao Bai, Frida Berglund, Aleša Bratina Zimic, Margaret Broyles, Andrea Catania, Airu Chen, Magdalena Chorzępa, Eman Farahat, Jakob Götz, Bat Hoter-Ishay, Gesine Jordan, Siri Joustra, Jonas Klingebiel, Živa Krajnc, Antonia Krug, Thomas Lind Andersen, Johanna Löloff, Divya Natarajan, Sasha Newman-Oktan, Elena Niehoff, Celeste Paerels, Rachel Papirmeister, Steven Peregrina, Felicia Pohl, Amanda Remsö, Abigail Roh, Binahayati Rusyidi, Justus Schmidt, Mariam Shavgulidze, Valentina Vellinho Nardin, Ruixiang Wang, Kelly Warner, Miranda Wattier, Chloe Y. Wong, Mariem Younssi, Kai Ruggeri, Sander van der Linden. A 27-country test of communicating the scientific consensus on climate change. Nature Human Behaviour, 2024; DOI: 10.1038/s41562-024-01928-2
Claim: The consensus among scientists and policy-makers is that we’ll pass this point of no return if the global mean temperature rises by more than two degrees Celsius (Jonathan Franzen, 2019-09-17)
Evidence (2024-10-05): In March 1990, Cutter Information Corporation (now known as Cutter Consortium) sent questionnaires to 1500 researchers who were on the attendance lists of climate change conferences, and received 331 responses from 41 countries. The survey revealed widespread agreement that global warming is already happening, that it will result in negative impacts such as sea level rise, and that reducing carbon dioxide emissions and halting deforestation is an appropriate response to it. Only 1.9% of respondents predicted that there would be an overall cooling across the next 100 years. There was more disagreement on the strength of future warming: i.e. around 30% believed that there was a less than 50% chance that the warming would reach or exceed 2 °C (3.6 °F) over the next 100 years, while a larger fraction (almost 40%) thought such temperatures were at least 75% likely.[46][21]
Claim: The consensus among scientists and policy-makers is that we’ll pass this point of no return if the global mean temperature rises by more than two degrees Celsius (Jonathan Franzen, 2019-09-17)
Evidence (2015-11-25): The consensus is so strong because scientists can be sure of the fundamental physical principles underpinning greenhouse gas warming. Indeed, journalist Seth Borenstein recently quoted a scientist equating the strength of the evidence with that linking smoking with lung cancer. [...] However, studies have shown that outside scientific circles, a large proportion of the general public is not aware such overwhelming agreement exists among climate scientists. A recent US poll suggested just one in ten people put the figure at more than 90 per cent. [...] However we choose to talk about consensus, all we’re really doing is exploring how to present scientific facts to different audiences. The facts themselves don’t change. That an overwhelming consensus exists among scientists about human-caused climate change isn’t in doubt. But then again, it never was.
Claim: The consensus among scientists and policy-makers is that we’ll pass this point of no return if the global mean temperature rises by more than two degrees Celsius (Jonathan Franzen, 2019-09-17)
Evidence (2024-02-20): Many climate experts believe that outcome is inevitable. Global temperatures will climb higher than 1.5 degrees compared with 150 years ago, they say, though often only in private. [...] The 1.5 C goal "is on life support, and the machines are rattling," said U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres at the opening ceremony of the conference in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, on Monday. "We are getting dangerously close to the point of no return." Yet many scientists privately believe the world has already hit the point of no return. And some say it’s time to make that message public.
Claim: The consensus among scientists and policy-makers is that we’ll pass this point of no return if the global mean temperature rises by more than two degrees Celsius (Jonathan Franzen, 2019-09-17)
Evidence (2019-09-17): - Climate 2°C is not known to be a "point of no return", as Jonathan Franzen claims [...] UPDATE (25 August 2020): This section of the New Yorker article was edited at an unknown date, and now reads: "Some scientists and policymakers fear that we’re in danger of passing this point of no return if the global mean temperature rises by more than two degrees Celsius (maybe more, but also maybe less)." [...] There is certainly no consensus among scientists that 2.0°C (3.6°F) global warming above pre-industrial levels represents a "point of no return" for climate change.
Claim: The consensus among scientists and policy-makers is that we’ll pass this point of no return if the global mean temperature rises by more than two degrees Celsius (Jonathan Franzen, 2019-09-17)
Evidence (2019-09-08): Our atmosphere and oceans can absorb only so much heat before climate change, intensified by various feedback loops, spins completely out of control. Some scientists and policymakers fear that we’re in danger of passing this point of no return if the global mean temperature rises by more than two degrees Celsius (maybe more, but also maybe less). The I.P.C.C.—the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change—tells us that, to limit the rise to less than two degrees, we not only need to reverse the trend of the past three decades. We need to approach zero net emissions, globally, in the next three decades. This is, to say the least, a tall order. It also assumes that you trust the I.P.C.C.’s calculations. New research, described last month in Scientific American, demonstrates that climate scientists, far from exaggerating the threat of climate change, have underestimated its pace and severity. To project the rise in the global mean temperature, scientists rely on complicated atmospheric modelling. They take a host of variables and run them through supercomputers to generate, say, ten thousand different simulations for the coming century, in order to make a "best" prediction of the rise in temperature. When a scientist predicts a rise of two degrees Celsius, she’s merely naming a number about which she’s very confident: the rise will be at least two degrees. The rise might, in fact, be far higher.
Claim: The consensus among scientists and policy-makers is that we’ll pass this point of no return if the global mean temperature rises by more than two degrees Celsius (Jonathan Franzen, 2019-09-17)
Evidence (2006-03-28): NARRATOR: If we continue as we are, combining reduced air pollution with an increase in greenhouse gases, temperatures could rise by a further two or even three degrees Celsius. That's as much as five degrees [...] I cannot imagine that the ice sheets could survive more than a few centuries with a three-degree Celsius warming. So that would mean a sea level rise of several meters per century, and it would just continue. And once that starts, it's out of our control. [...] JAMES HANSEN: I think we have less than a decade to avoid passing what I call "point of no return." I think we have to keep global warming less than one degree Celsius, or we're going to get very bad effects. And the problem is that to achieve...to keep the warming less than one degree Celsius, we have to level off the emissions and get them to decline before the middle of the century, substantially.
Claim: The consensus among scientists and policy-makers is that we’ll pass this point of no return if the global mean temperature rises by more than two degrees Celsius (Jonathan Franzen, 2019-09-17)
Evidence (2023-08-21): Steven Koonin: We've broken the climate and we're headed for suicide. et cetera, right. [...] Steven Koonin: So let me talk about adaptation a little bit and give you some examples that are probably not well known, at least it wasn't really known to me until I looked into it. If you go back to 1900 and you look from 1900 till today, the globe warmed by about 1.3 degrees. That's this global temperature record that everybody more or less agrees upon. [...] Steven Koonin: the greatest flourishing of human wellbeing ever, even as the globe warmed by 1.3 degrees. And the kicker of course is that the deaths, the death rate from extreme weather events fell by a factor of 50. Better prediction, better resilience of infrastructure, and so on. So to think that another 1.3 or 1.4 whatever degrees over the next century is going to significantly derail that beggars belief. Okay. So not an existential threat, perhaps some drag on the economy a little bit. The IPCC says not very much at all, but you know the notion that the world is gonna end unless we stop greenhouse gas is just nonsense.
Claim: The consensus among scientists and policy-makers is that we’ll pass this point of no return if the global mean temperature rises by more than two degrees Celsius (Jonathan Franzen, 2019-09-17)
Evidence (2013-02-13): Once we surpass 2°C (which is internationally considered the "danger limit" beyond which we should not pass), the impacts listed above are exacerbated, and some new impacts will occur. Coastal flooding will impact millions of people. Coral bleaching will be widespread (exacerbated by ocean acidification), most coral reefs may not survive (Frieler et al. 2012, Kiessling et al. 2012), global food crop production will decline, and sea levels will rise by close to 1 meter by 2100. Up to 30% of global species will be at risk for extinction. [...] For further details, see our post here and the Point of No Return report (pages 23–25) by Ecofys and Greenpeace. To summarize, we do not want to exceed 2°C warming above pre-industrial levels (even that amount of warming is very risky), and 3–4°C or more puts us at serious risk of catastrophic climate change. Now let's examine when we can expect to reach these temperatures in various climate sensitivity and greenhouse gas emissions scenarios.
Claim: The consensus among scientists and policy-makers is that we’ll pass this point of no return if the global mean temperature rises by more than two degrees Celsius (Jonathan Franzen, 2019-09-17)
Evidence (2024-09-05): In specific terms, an increase of 1 or more degrees Celsius in a period of one hundred to two hundred years would be considered global warming. Over the course of a single century, an increase of even 0.4 degrees Celsius would be significant. [...] In specific terms, an increase of 1 or more Celsius degrees in a period of one hundred to two hundred years would be considered global warming. Over the course of a single century, an increase of even 0.4 degrees Celsius would be significant. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a group of over 2,500 scientists from countries across the world, convened in Paris in February, 2007 to compare and advance climate research. The scientists determined that the Earth has warmed .6 degrees Celsius between 1901 and 2000. When the timeframe is advanced by five years, from 1906 to 2006, the scientists found that the temperature increase was .74 degrees Celsius. [...] We have seen that an average drop of just 5 degrees Celsius over thousands of years can cause an ice age; so what will happen if the Earth's average temperature increases a few degrees in just a few hundred years? There is no clear answer. Even short-term weather predictions are never perfectly accurate because weather is a complex phenomenon. When it comes to long-term climate predictions, all we can manage are educated guesses based on our knowledge of climate patterns through history.
Claim: The consensus among scientists and policy-makers is that we’ll pass this point of no return if the global mean temperature rises by more than two degrees Celsius (Jonathan Franzen, 2019-09-17)
Evidence (2021-02-18): They wondered, too, if humans can cope effectively with such far-reaching changes, given that they are required to function with "paleolithic emotions, medieval institutions and god-like technology," in the words of biologist E.O. Wilson. [...] This will slightly hasten the eventual replacement of most public transit with robotic group and solo transportation. The world will probably get a bit cleaner. Ultraviolet disinfection will become common. This may reduce the spread of other infections like flu." [...] - In many countries, there will be fewer women in the workforce, and fewer women in schools.
Claim: The consensus among scientists and policy-makers is that we’ll pass this point of no return if the global mean temperature rises by more than two degrees Celsius (Jonathan Franzen, 2019-09-17)
Evidence (2023-11-30): Reducing the amount of carbon in the atmosphere is an important step if we are aiming to reverse global warming. Nature has an elegant solution. Plants take in water and carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and -- through photosynthesis -- convert it into oxygen and organic compounds. Could we mimic nature and pull carbon from the air? [...] But that doesn't address more than half of the carbon dioxide we humans produce. We produce more carbon dioxide from our homes, vehicles and businesses than we do from factories or wells [source: Prakash, et al.]. But because we don't produce carbon dioxide in a steady stream, like some point sources do, it's harder to capture. The carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere is about 385 parts per million -- it's so diffuse that it's difficult to capture.
Claim: The consensus among scientists and policy-makers is that we’ll pass this point of no return if the global mean temperature rises by more than two degrees Celsius (Jonathan Franzen, 2019-09-17)
Evidence (2017-04-04): Despite the many climate "skeptics" in key positions of power today, 97 percent of working climate scientists agree that the warming of Earth’s climate over the last 100 years is mainly due to human activity that has increased the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Why are they so sure? [...] Global temperatures have risen an average of 1.4˚ F since 1880. Sea ice in the Arctic has thinned and decreased in the last few decades; the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are decreasing in mass. The North and South Poles are warming faster than anywhere else on Earth. Glaciers are retreating on mountains all over the world. Spring snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere has decreased over the last 50 years. [...] Evidence from ocean sediments, ice cores, tree rings, sedimentary rocks and coral reefs show that the current warming is occurring 10 times faster than it did in the past when Earth emerged from the ice ages, at a rate unprecedented in the last 1,300 years.