copenlu/druid huggingface dataset:
Claim: The number of people in the U.S. illegally is “upwards of 20, 25, maybe 30 million.” (Marco Rubio, 2024-05-19)
Evidence (2024-07-05): The estimated population of unauthorized immigrants in the U.S. stands at around 11 million people. Although the number has stabilized, the United States has seen a spike in migrant encounters in the last few years, with over two million cases registered by the U.S. Border Patrol in 2023. This is a slight decrease from the previous year, when there were over 2.2 million cases registered. Due to its proximity and shared border, Mexico remains the leading country of origin for most undocumented immigrants in the U.S., with California and Texas being home to the majority. Between 1990 and February 2020, the U.S. Border Patrol counted "apprehensions" and "expulsions" separately. As of March 2020, the U.S. Border Patrol changed its methodology to include both apprehensions and expulsions as "encounters." [...] Apprehensions and expulsions registered by the United States Border Patrol from the 1990 fiscal year to the 2023 fiscal year [Graph], US Customs and Border Protection, February 14, 2024. [Online]. Available: https://www.statista.com/statistics/329256/alien-apprehensions-registered-by-the-us-border-patrol/
Claim: The number of people in the U.S. illegally is “upwards of 20, 25, maybe 30 million.” (Marco Rubio, 2024-05-19)
Evidence (2024-09-28): Acting ICE Director P.J. Lechleitner sent the data, collected as of July 21, as part of a request sent in March from Republican Rep. Tony Gonzales of Texas. [...] But the agency’s limited resources limit how many they can locate and arrest. There are currently more than 7.5 million immigrants on ICE’s "non-detained" docket, meaning they have pending immigration cases but are not currently in detention. [...] NBC News joined ICE agents in Maryland earlier this year when they arrested a man convicted of murder in Colombia and a man convicted of attempted murder in El Salvador.
Claim: The number of people in the U.S. illegally is “upwards of 20, 25, maybe 30 million.” (Marco Rubio, 2024-05-19)
Evidence (2024-06-11): Is Rubio right that the population of people living in the U.S. illegally doubled and has reached 20 million to 30 million? [...] Here are immigration groups’ recent estimates of the number of people illegally in the U.S. They issued their estimates from November 2023 to March 2024: [...] Immigration officials don’t let in everyone they encounter, agents have expelled migrants millions of times under Biden. And the number of people living illegally in the U.S. is not static; it fluctuates as people die, leave the U.S. or change their immigration status. Adding the number of border stops under Biden to the estimated number of people already here illegally won’t produce an accurate total.
Claim: The number of people in the U.S. illegally is “upwards of 20, 25, maybe 30 million.” (Marco Rubio, 2024-05-19)
Evidence (2024-03-20): Encounters on the southern border of those trying to enter the U.S. without authorization have gone up significantly under President Joe Biden. Government statistics show that in the initial processing of millions of encounters, 2.5 million people have been released into the U.S. and 2.8 million have been removed or expelled. [...] Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley, the former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, claimed last month that 8 million "have come in illegally" and "we have to send them back." Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis made the same claim in a GOP debate in January. [...] DHS has released several spreadsheets of data on illegal immigration at the southern border. All of the figures in this story come from that data from the Office of Homeland Security Statistics, unless otherwise noted.
Claim: The number of people in the U.S. illegally is “upwards of 20, 25, maybe 30 million.” (Marco Rubio, 2024-05-19)
Evidence (2024-06-12): There aren’t 20 to 30 million immigrants in the U.S. illegally, as Marco Rubio claimed [...] Is Rubio right that the number of people living in the U.S. illegally doubled and has reached 20 million to 30 million? [...] Immigration officials don’t let in everyone they encounter; agents have expelled migrants millions of times under Biden. And the number of people living illegally in the U.S. is not static; it fluctuates as people die, leave the U.S. or change their immigration status. Adding the number of border stops under Biden to the estimated number of people already here illegally won’t produce an accurate total.
Claim: The number of people in the U.S. illegally is “upwards of 20, 25, maybe 30 million.” (Marco Rubio, 2024-05-19)
Evidence (2024-06-12): READ MORE: Biden’s new executive order denies asylum claims to most migrants crossing the border unlawfully "Eleven million? That's an outdated — that was the number 10 years ago," Rubio said. "We’re talking upwards of 20, 25, maybe 30 million. There’s been almost 10 million people that have entered this country in the last three years." Is Rubio right that the population of people living in the U.S. illegally doubled and has reached 20 million to 30 million? [...] Immigration officials don’t let in everyone they encounter, agents have expelled migrants millions of times under Biden. And the number of people living illegally in the U.S. is not static; it fluctuates as people die, leave the U.S. or change their immigration status. Adding the number of border stops under Biden to the estimated number of people already here illegally won’t produce an accurate total.
Claim: The number of people in the U.S. illegally is “upwards of 20, 25, maybe 30 million.” (Marco Rubio, 2024-05-19)
Evidence (2022-11-18): Accounting for challenges in data comparisons, our review found an increase of 300% in illegal immigration from Trump’s first full month in office, February 2017, to his last full month, December 2020. [...] "Remain in Mexico" likely decreased illegal immigration, but it wasn’t the only factor and it’s hard to quantify its impact, said Aaron Reichlin-Melnick, policy director at the American Immigration Council, an immigrants' rights advocacy group. [...] Phone interview, Aaron Reichlin-Melnick, policy director at the American Immigration Council, Nov. 28, 2022
Claim: The number of people in the U.S. illegally is “upwards of 20, 25, maybe 30 million.” (Marco Rubio, 2024-05-19)
Evidence (2024-09-29): The Republican presidential nominee has repeatedly criticised the government's record on the border, saying "Kamala Harris has allowed 21 million illegals to pour in from all over the world." [...] US border officials record "encounters" with migrants - these include people who attempted to cross illegally and people who tried to enter legally but were deemed inadmissible. [...] The US Department of Homeland Security has estimated there were 11 million illegal migrants living in the US as of January 2022.
Claim: The number of people in the U.S. illegally is “upwards of 20, 25, maybe 30 million.” (Marco Rubio, 2024-05-19)
Evidence (2024-06-11): Is Rubio right that the population of people living in the U.S. illegally doubled and has reached 20 million to 30 million? [...] The number of immigrants living illegally in the U.S. has increased under Biden’s administration after remaining stable for years. But it is not as high as Rubio says. Most immigration groups that estimate this population agree the number ranges around 11 million to 12 million people, despite differences in methodologies. The highest estimate is 16.8 million. Immigration officials don’t let in everyone they encounter, agents have expelled migrants millions of times under Biden. And the number of people living illegally in the U.S. is not static; it fluctuates as people die, leave the U.S. or change their immigration status. Adding the number of border stops under Biden to the estimated number of people already here illegally won’t produce an accurate total.
Claim: The number of people in the U.S. illegally is “upwards of 20, 25, maybe 30 million.” (Marco Rubio, 2024-05-19)
Evidence (2024-09-27): In 2022, the number of unauthorized immigrants in the U.S. showed sustained growth for the first time since 2007, to 11.o million. As of 2022, about 4 million unauthorized immigrants in the U.S. are Mexican. This is the largest number of any origin country, representing more than one-third of all unauthorized immigrants. However, the Mexican unauthorized immigrant population is down from a peak of almost 7 million in 2007, when Mexicans accounted for 57% of all unauthorized immigrants. [...] Virtually all unauthorized immigrants living in the U.S. entered the country without legal permission or arrived on a nonpermanent visa and stayed after it expired.
Claim: The number of people in the U.S. illegally is “upwards of 20, 25, maybe 30 million.” (Marco Rubio, 2024-05-19)
Evidence (2024-05-19): There aren’t 20 million to 30 million immigrants in the U.S. illegally, as Sen. Marco Rubio claimed [...] Is Rubio right that the population of people living in the U.S. illegally doubled and has reached 20 million to 30 million? [...] Immigration officials don’t let in everyone they encounter, agents have expelled migrants millions of times under Biden. And the number of people living illegally in the U.S. is not static; it fluctuates as people die, leave the U.S. or change their immigration status. Adding the number of border stops under Biden to the estimated number of people already here illegally won’t produce an accurate total.
Claim: The number of people in the U.S. illegally is “upwards of 20, 25, maybe 30 million.” (Marco Rubio, 2024-05-19)
Evidence (2024-05-21): "11 million was the number [of illegal immigrants] 10 years ago. We’re [now] talking upwards of 20, 25, maybe 30 million. There’s been almost 10 million people that have entered this country unlawfully in the last three years…. It’s another 9 to 10 million people just in the last three years…. "We cannot absorb 25, 30 million people who entered this country illegally. They are here illegally. What country on earth would tolerate that? We don’t even know who most of these people are. They talk about vetting them, [but] they’re coming from nations that don’t even have document systems, in many cases. "We are going to have to do something. Unfortunately, we’re going to have to do something dramatic to remove people from this country that are here illegally, especially people we know nothing about. 10 to 11 million [people], that was the number 15 years ago. Today, it’s upwards of probably 25 to 30 million, maybe more.
Claim: The number of people in the U.S. illegally is “upwards of 20, 25, maybe 30 million.” (Marco Rubio, 2024-05-19)
Evidence (2024-07-22): Unauthorized immigrants live in 6.3 million households that include more than 22 million people. These households represent 4.8% of the 130 million U.S. households. [...] The total number of unauthorized immigrants in the U.S. from countries other than Mexico grew rapidly between 2019 and 2022, from 5.8 million to 6.9 million. [...] These states have consistently had the most unauthorized immigrants since at least 1980. However, in 2007, California had 1.2 million more unauthorized immigrants than Texas. Today, with the declining number in California, it has only about 150,000 more. The unauthorized immigrant population has also become considerably less geographically concentrated over time. In 2022, the top six states were home to 56% of the nation’s unauthorized immigrants, down from 80% in 1990.
Claim: The number of people in the U.S. illegally is “upwards of 20, 25, maybe 30 million.” (Marco Rubio, 2024-05-19)
Evidence (2019-05-06): Other notable findings of the Report include: [...] Further Information on Key Issues from the Report [...] By the Numbers – Key Statistics and Facts from the Report
Claim: The number of people in the U.S. illegally is “upwards of 20, 25, maybe 30 million.” (Marco Rubio, 2024-05-19)
Evidence (2024-09-30): A dash in the table means that data is not available.
Claim: The number of people in the U.S. illegally is “upwards of 20, 25, maybe 30 million.” (Marco Rubio, 2024-05-19)
Evidence (2014-07-20): For more on this topic, see here.
Claim: The number of people in the U.S. illegally is “upwards of 20, 25, maybe 30 million.” (Marco Rubio, 2024-05-19)
Evidence (2018-09-21): The undocumented population in the United States could be twice as large as the most commonly-used estimate, according to a research study published Friday in the scientific journal Plos One. The paper, led by Mohammad M. Fazel-Zarandi, a researcher at Yale and Massachusetts Institute of Technology, estimates there are 22.1 million undocumented immigrants in the United States. Fazel-Zarandi’s study compared inflows and outflows of immigrants as well as demographic data. According to the report, the number of undocumented immigrants could be as low as 16.5 million, or as high as 29.1 million.
Claim: The number of people in the U.S. illegally is “upwards of 20, 25, maybe 30 million.” (Marco Rubio, 2024-05-19)
Evidence (2024-09-30): Illegal immigration is the migration of people into a country in violation of that country's immigration laws, or the continuous residence in a country without the legal right to do so. Illegal immigration tends to be financially upward, from poorer to richer countries.[1] Illegal residence in another country creates the risk of detention, deportation, and other imposed sanctions.[2] [...] Effects of illegal immigration [edit]Economy and labor market [edit]Based on data from the Immigration Policy Center, there are currently about nine million illegal immigrants in the U.S. There are about half a million more illegal immigrants every year. In addition, The United States spends about $3.8 billion on border enforcement each year.[36] [...] United States [edit]Approximately 11 million illegal immigrants were estimated to be living in the United States in 2006.[155] The Pew Hispanic Center estimated that this peaked at 12 million in March 2007 and declined to 11 million again in March 2009.[156] The majority of the illegal immigrants are from Mexico.[157]
Claim: The number of people in the U.S. illegally is “upwards of 20, 25, maybe 30 million.” (Marco Rubio, 2024-05-19)
Evidence (2001-05-30): Texas Parks and Wildlife Commission [...] And we will be working 21 with some of the other agencies in the next couple weeks 22 to try to determine how to approach that issue. 23 The issue that I think is important that we 24 bring to your attention today is that I did use the word 25 "authority". A lot of this is -- is -- is -- comes in the ESQUIRE DEPOSITION SERVICES 3101 BEE CAVES ROAD, SUITE 220 AUSTIN, TEXAS 78746 PH (512) 328-5557 FAX (512) 328-8139 . 21 1 form of increased spending authority through the 2 entrepreneurial rider, but also increased mandated 3 expenditures including -- the largest one being the 4 employee pay raise.
Claim: The number of people in the U.S. illegally is “upwards of 20, 25, maybe 30 million.” (Marco Rubio, 2024-05-19)
Evidence (2004-10-29): Vice President's Q & A in Schofield, Wisconsin [...] And that's the ultimate threat that we've got to defeat if we're going to guarantee our safety and security in the days and year ahead. [...] Thank you very much. (Applause.)
Claim: The number of people in the U.S. illegally is “upwards of 20, 25, maybe 30 million.” (Marco Rubio, 2024-05-19)
Evidence (2007-01-25): Some now argue the disaggregation of the government’s immigration responsibilities across several agencies has weakened immigration as a policy priority and has made it much more difficult for the executive branch to develop a comprehensive immigration reform and border security strategy. Others maintain that the current organizational structure sharpens the focus on the key, yet disparate, immigration functions and is optimal from a homeland security perspective. [...] The Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986 (IRCA) strengthened and broadened immigration enforcement (e.g., authorized legal sanctions against employers who hire unauthorized aliens) and legalized the status of several million unauthorized aliens living in the United States. Although this major overhaul of immigration law featured many of the recommendations of SCIRP, it did not address the organizational issues raised by SCIRP. Indeed, some observers have subsequently concluded that IRCA exacerbated the management problems of INS by overloading it with competing mandates, which included the legalization of 2.7 million unauthorized aliens, additional border controls, and the expansion of work site enforcement and employer sanctions.11 [...] Cable network news shows frequently feature problems along the U.S. border in regular segments.63 Surveys of public opinion indicate a particular concern with illegal immigration, and a recent survey reported that 61% of respondents disapprove of the Administration's handling of illegal immigration.64
Claim: The number of people in the U.S. illegally is “upwards of 20, 25, maybe 30 million.” (Marco Rubio, 2024-05-19)
Evidence (2023-08-07): Roughly Half of Hired Crop Farmworkers Lack Legal Immigration Status The share of hired crop farmworkers who were not legally authorized to work in the United States grew from roughly 14 percent in 1989–91 to almost 55 percent in 1999–2001; in recent years it has declined to about 40 percent. In 2018–20, 30 percent of crop farmworkers were U.S. born, 6 percent were immigrants who had obtained U.S. citizenship, 23 percent were other authorized immigrants (primarily permanent residents or green-card holders), and the remaining 41 percent held no work authorization. The share of workers who are U.S. born is highest in the Midwest, while the share who are unauthorized is highest in California. [...] NAWS, conducted by the U.S. Department of Labor, is an employment-based, random-sample survey of U.S. crop workers (neither livestock workers nor seasonal workers on H-2A visas are covered) that collects demographic, employment, and health data in face-to-face interviews. The NAWS is the source of estimates of legal immigration status of the Nation's crop farmworkers and is the basis for much of the research on farmworker health and well-being. is an employment-based, random-sample survey of U.S. crop workers (livestock workers are not covered, nor are seasonal workers on H-2A visas) that collects demographic, employment, and health data in face-to-face interviews. The NAWS is the source of estimates of legal immigration status of the Nation's crop farmworkers, and is the basis for much of the research on farmworker health and well-being. Results are tabulated here, and the underlying microdata files are also available for public use.
Claim: The number of people in the U.S. illegally is “upwards of 20, 25, maybe 30 million.” (Marco Rubio, 2024-05-19)
Evidence (2022-05-01): In every state, it’s illegal to drive drunk, yet one person was killed in a drunk-driving crash every 39 minutes in the United States in 2022.
Claim: The number of people in the U.S. illegally is “upwards of 20, 25, maybe 30 million.” (Marco Rubio, 2024-05-19)
Evidence (2018-09-21): Generally accepted estimates put the population of undocumented immigrants in the United States at approximately 11.3 million. A new study, using mathematical modeling on a range of demographic and immigration operations data, suggests that the actual undocumented immigrant population may be more than 22 million. Immigration is the focus of fierce political and policy debate in the United States. Among the most contentious issues is how the country should address undocumented immigrants. Like a tornado that won’t dissipate, arguments have spun around and around for years. At the center lies a fairly stable and largely unquestioned number: 11.3 million undocumented immigrants residing in the U.S. But a paper by three Yale-affiliated researchers suggests all the perceptions and arguments based on that number may have a faulty foundation; the actual population of undocumented immigrants residing in the country is much larger than that, perhaps twice as high, and has been underestimated for decades. Using mathematical modeling on a range of demographic and immigration operations data, the researchers estimate there are 22.1 million undocumented immigrants in the United States. Even using parameters intentionally aimed at producing an extremely conservative estimate, they found a population of 16.7 million undocumented immigrants.
Claim: The number of people in the U.S. illegally is “upwards of 20, 25, maybe 30 million.” (Marco Rubio, 2024-05-19)
Evidence (2024-01-18): - Those who entered the United States illegally and have not obtained a permanent legal status; [...] 12. See Bethany Blankley, "Nearly 4 Million Illegal Border Crossers in Fiscal 2023," Center Square (October 26, 2023), http://tinyurl.com/4bytvmcu. [...] 17. Robert Warren and John Robert Warren, "Unauthorized Immigration to the United States: Annual Estimates and Components of Change, by State, 1990 to 2010," International Migration Review, vol. 47, no. 2 (June 2013), pp. 296–329, https://doi.org/10.1111/imre.12022.
Claim: The number of people in the U.S. illegally is “upwards of 20, 25, maybe 30 million.” (Marco Rubio, 2024-05-19)
Evidence (2024-04-10): 52.232-39 Unenforceability of Unauthorized Obligations. [...] (c) Web site. Information on registration for and use of the E-Verify program can be obtained via the Internet at the Department of Homeland Security Web site: https://www.e-Verify.gov. [...] Unenforceability of Unauthorized Obligations (Jun 2013)
Claim: The number of people in the U.S. illegally is “upwards of 20, 25, maybe 30 million.” (Marco Rubio, 2024-05-19)
Evidence (2024-05-02): Among Americans aged 12 years and older, 37.309 million were current illegal drug users (used within the last 30 days) as of 2020. [...] - 59.277 million or 21.4% of people 12 and over have used illegal drugs or misused prescription drugs within the last year. [...] - 5% of people in non-metropolitan, rural counties used illegal drugs compared to 20.2% of people in larger metropolitan counties.
Claim: The number of people in the U.S. illegally is “upwards of 20, 25, maybe 30 million.” (Marco Rubio, 2024-05-19)
Evidence (2023-08-23): - States have obtained temporary waivers to pursue strategies to support their unwinding plans. [...] 6. States have obtained temporary waivers to pursue strategies to support their unwinding plans. [...] 10. The number of people without health insurance could increase if people who lose Medicaid coverage are unable to transition to other coverage.
Claim: The number of people in the U.S. illegally is “upwards of 20, 25, maybe 30 million.” (Marco Rubio, 2024-05-19)
Evidence (2019-07-12): The way Pew Research Center calculates the estimated number of unauthorized immigrants in the United States is the product of decades of work by Jeffrey S. Passel, senior demographer, along with former colleagues at the U.S. Census Bureau and the Urban Institute. Passel has written numerous studies on the demography of immigration and on immigration issues. Following are his answers to some common questions about the research techniques used to derive the unauthorized immigrant population estimate. [...] There have been several studies done by demographers looking at coverage of censuses and surveys. We draw on data from Census Bureau studies of the undercount. We use information from a couple of surveys focused on Mexicans in the U.S. that asked whether they participated in the census or not. And perhaps our most useful set of data comes from surveys and censuses done in Mexico. Mexicans are by far the largest group, now accounting for almost half of the unauthorized immigrants in the U.S., so we feel that if we can get a good handle on how well they’re counted, we can generalize to other groups of people. Mexico has its own censuses; they have a number of large-scale surveys of Mexicans in their country; and they have good historical data. Essentially, almost all of the Mexicans in the world are either in Mexico or the U.S., so by looking at the number in the two countries combined, we can make some inferences on how good the data are in the U.S. and place some limits on how many Mexican immigrants might be missed in U.S. data sources.