copenlu/druid huggingface dataset:
Claim: the concentration of carbon dioxide in Earth’s atmosphere has climbed to a level last seen more than 3 million years ago — before humans even appeared on the rocky ball we call home (Denise Chow, 2019-05-14)
Evidence (2024-06-27): Key Points - Global atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and certain manufactured greenhouse gases have all risen significantly over the last few hundred years (see Figures 1, 2, 3, and 4). - Historical measurements show that the current global atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide are unprecedented compared with the past 800,000 years (see Figures 1, 2, and 3). - Carbon dioxide concentrations have increased substantially since the beginning of the industrial era, rising from an annual average of 280 ppm in the late 1700s to 419 ppm in 2023 (average of five sites in Figure 1)—a 49 percent increase. Almost all of this increase is due to human activities.1 - The concentration of methane in the atmosphere has more than doubled since preindustrial times, reaching over 1,800 ppb in recent years (see the range of measurements for 2020 through 2023 in Figure 2). This increase is predominantly due to agriculture and fossil fuel use.2 - Over the past 800,000 years, concentrations of nitrous oxide in the atmosphere rarely exceeded 280 ppb. Levels have risen since the 1920s, however, reaching a new high of 336 ppb in 2022 (average of four sites in Figure 3). This increase is primarily due to agriculture.3 - Concentrations of many of the halogenated gases shown in Figure 4 were essentially zero a few decades ago but have increased rapidly as they have been incorporated into industrial products and processes.
Claim: the concentration of carbon dioxide in Earth’s atmosphere has climbed to a level last seen more than 3 million years ago — before humans even appeared on the rocky ball we call home (Denise Chow, 2019-05-14)
Evidence (2024-09-25): Atmospheric levels of the three main greenhouse gases warming our planet - carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide- all reached new record highs in 2021, according to a new report from the UN’s World Meteorological Organization (WMO). [...] The increase in carbon dioxide levels from 2020 to 2021 was also larger than the average annual growth rate over the last decade, and according to WMO, the levels continue to rise through 2022. [...] To be more specific, CO2 concentrations last year reached 415.7 parts per million (ppm), methane 1908 ppm, and nitrous oxide 334.5 ppm. These values constitute, respectively, 149 per cent, 262 per cent and 124 per cent of pre-industrial levels before human activities started disrupting the natural balance of these gases in the atmosphere.
Claim: the concentration of carbon dioxide in Earth’s atmosphere has climbed to a level last seen more than 3 million years ago — before humans even appeared on the rocky ball we call home (Denise Chow, 2019-05-14)
Evidence (2021-06-14): The study found CO2 levels of more 1500 parts per million (ppm) in the atmosphere associated with extreme global warmth 50 million years ago, a climate so warm that no ice existed on the poles, the researchers said. [...] For the last one million years, CO2 levels slowly oscillated between 180 ppm and 300 ppm, as Earth’s climate transitioned in and out of the ice ages, with the dawn of agriculture and human settlement only establishing when CO2 and climate stabilized at the end of the last ice age, around 10,000 years ago, Rae said. [...] The last time CO2 was as high as it is today was three million years ago, Rae said, and it drove enough warming to melt all of the ice from Greenland and West Antarctica and raise sea level by around 60 feet.
Claim: the concentration of carbon dioxide in Earth’s atmosphere has climbed to a level last seen more than 3 million years ago — before humans even appeared on the rocky ball we call home (Denise Chow, 2019-05-14)
Evidence (2021-05-18): Atmospheric CO2 levels of between 280 and 350 parts per million created the climate that let humanity build and feed the modern world. The farther we get from those levels, the more we run the risk of disturbing that balance. According to NASA, the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) in Earth’s atmosphere was about 416 parts per million (ppm) in April 2021.1 This level has been rising for 200 years—a worrying sign for the planet, since CO2 is a powerful heat-trapping greenhouse gas. Climate experts warn that humanity must drastically lower its CO2 emissions to avoid the most catastrophic consequences of climate change. But if we could choose a different level of CO2 in the air, what number would we pick? The first thing to know is that our species arose in a world with much less CO2, says Noelle Selin, Associate Professor in the MIT Institute for Data, Systems and Society and the Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences. As humanity evolved over the past several hundred thousand years, atmospheric CO2 cycled between about 200 and 300 ppm. The preindustrial level of CO2—the amount in the air a few centuries ago, before humans began to burn CO2-producing fuels like coal and oil at an industrial scale—was about 280 ppm. Selin says a good argument could be made that 280 is the ideal level of CO2 for human life, since it creates temperature ranges that are comfortable for the human body and allowed civilization to grow. "The changes that we've seen since then just haven't happened on the timescale that you could evolve changes in humans."
Claim: the concentration of carbon dioxide in Earth’s atmosphere has climbed to a level last seen more than 3 million years ago — before humans even appeared on the rocky ball we call home (Denise Chow, 2019-05-14)
Evidence (2022-10-01): Observed concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere have exceeded 416 parts per million (ppm) threshold at the end of 2021. This is a wakeup call about the constantly rising levels of this greenhouse gas, which is released into the atmosphere by fossil fuel burning and other human activities and is the main driver of climate change. Carbon dioxide remains in the atmosphere for thousands of years, trapping heat and causing our planet to warm further, impacting on all aspects of life on earth. The first chart displays a sharp increase in CO2 concentrations of more than 100 ppm since March 1958. The curve shows expected seasonal fluctuations: the northern hemisphere has a greater land mass than the southern hemisphere and more vegetation-absorbing CO2 during the summer. Global CO2 concentrations peak in May at the end of the northern hemisphere winter. Then, as photosynthesis takes place and new foliage appears, it absorbs CO2, lowering concentrations by about 7.5 ppm until October. During the northern hemisphere winter, the Earth has less photosynthesis activity, so CO2 concentrations go up until the next cycle. [...] The second graph shows the difference in CO2 concentrations between one month and the same month one year before (e.g. + 2.88 ppm between April 2020 and April 2019). It shows that while the increase over one year was around 0.9 ppm during the 1960s it rose to 2.4 ppm on average during the 2010-2019 period. There is a clearly accelerating upward trend.
Claim: the concentration of carbon dioxide in Earth’s atmosphere has climbed to a level last seen more than 3 million years ago — before humans even appeared on the rocky ball we call home (Denise Chow, 2019-05-14)
Evidence (2021-02-25): Before humans began burning fossil fuels, naturally occurring greenhouse gases helped to make Earth’s climate habitable. Without them, the planet’s average temperature would be below freezing. So we know that even very low, natural levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases can make a huge difference in Earth’s climate. Today, CO2 levels are higher than they have been in at least 3 million years. And although they still account for only 0.04% of the atmosphere, that still adds up to billions upon billions of tons of heat-trapping gas. For example, in 2019 alone, humans dumped 36.44 billion tonnes of CO2 into the atmosphere, where it will linger for hundreds of years. So there are plenty of CO2 molecules to provide a heat-trapping blanket across the entire atmosphere. [...] The concentration of CO2 in Venus’ atmosphere is about 2,400 times higher than that of Earth. Yet the average temperature of Venus is only about 15 times higher. What gives?
Claim: the concentration of carbon dioxide in Earth’s atmosphere has climbed to a level last seen more than 3 million years ago — before humans even appeared on the rocky ball we call home (Denise Chow, 2019-05-14)
Evidence (2017-01-26): Last year will go down in history as the year when the planet’s atmosphere broke a startling record: 400 parts per million of carbon dioxide. The last time the planet’s air was so rich in CO2 was millions of years ago, back before early predecessors to humans were likely wielding stone tools; the world was a few degrees hotter back then, and melted ice put sea levels tens of meters higher. [...] The last time the planet had a concentration of 300 to 400 ppm of CO2 in the atmosphere was during the mid-Pliocene, 3 million years ago — recently enough for the planet to be not radically different than it is today. Back then, temperatures were 2 degrees C to 3 degrees C (3.6 to 5.4°F) above pre-industrial temperatures (though more than 10 degrees C hotter in the Arctic), and sea levels were at least 15-25 meters higher. Forest grew in the Canadian north and grasslands abounded worldwide; the Sahara was probably covered in vegetation. Homo habilis (aka "handy man"), the first species in the Homo line and probably the first stone-tool users, got a taste of this climate as they arrived on the scene 2.8 million years ago. (Homo sapiens didn’t show up until 400,000 years ago at the earliest.)
Claim: the concentration of carbon dioxide in Earth’s atmosphere has climbed to a level last seen more than 3 million years ago — before humans even appeared on the rocky ball we call home (Denise Chow, 2019-05-14)
Evidence (2024-09-30): "Data Page: Carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere", part of the following publication: Hannah Ritchie, Pablo Rosado and Veronika Samborska (2024) - "Climate Change". Data adapted from NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory, United States Environmental Protection Agency. Retrieved from https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/co2-long-term-concentration [online resource] [...] NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory - Trends in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (2024); EPA based on various sources (2022) – with major processing by Our World in Data NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory - Trends in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (2024); EPA based on various sources (2022) – with major processing by Our World in Data. "Carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere" [dataset]. NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory, "Trends in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide"; United States Environmental Protection Agency, "Climate Change Indicators: Atmospheric Concentrations of Greenhouse Gases" [original data]. Retrieved October 9, 2024 from https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/co2-long-term-concentration
Claim: the concentration of carbon dioxide in Earth’s atmosphere has climbed to a level last seen more than 3 million years ago — before humans even appeared on the rocky ball we call home (Denise Chow, 2019-05-14)
Evidence (2024-04-09): Based on the annual report from NOAA’s Global Monitoring Lab, global average atmospheric carbon dioxide was 419.3 parts per million ("ppm" for short) in 2023, setting a new record high. The increase between 2022 and 2023 was 2.8 ppm—the 12th year in a row where the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere increased by more than 2 ppm. At Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii, where the modern carbon dioxide record began in 1958, the annual average carbon dioxide in 2023 was 421.08. [...] By the time continuous observations began at Mauna Loa Volcanic Observatory in 1958, global atmospheric carbon dioxide was already 315 ppm. Carbon dioxide levels today are higher than at any point in human history. In fact, the last time atmospheric carbon dioxide amounts were this high was roughly 3 million years ago, during the Mid-Pliocene Warm Period, when global surface temperature was 4.5–7.2 degrees Fahrenheit (2.5–4 degrees Celsius) warmer than during the pre-industrial era. Sea level was at least 16 feet higher than it was in 1900 and possibly as much as 82 feet higher.
Claim: the concentration of carbon dioxide in Earth’s atmosphere has climbed to a level last seen more than 3 million years ago — before humans even appeared on the rocky ball we call home (Denise Chow, 2019-05-14)
Evidence (2024-05-22): Average annual atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide (CO₂) reached a record high of 421.08 parts per million (ppm) in 2023. Monthly atmospheric CO₂ concentrations peaked that year in May, at 424 ppm. [...] Annual CO₂ concentrations consistently averaged around 280 ppm before the industrial revolution began, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). However, the mass burning of fossil fuels and deforestation over the past two centuries has released trillions of tons of CO₂ into the atmosphere. This has caused atmospheric CO₂ levels to climb more than 50 percent above pre-industrial levels. [...] National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and ESRL. "Average Carbon Dioxide (Co₂) Levels in The Atmosphere Worldwide from 1959 to 2023 (in Parts per Million)." Statista, Statista Inc., 5 Jan 2024, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1091926/atmospheric-concentration-of-co2-historic/
Claim: the concentration of carbon dioxide in Earth’s atmosphere has climbed to a level last seen more than 3 million years ago — before humans even appeared on the rocky ball we call home (Denise Chow, 2019-05-14)
Evidence (2023-08-15): Carbon dioxide (CO2) is an important heat-trapping gas, also known as a greenhouse gas, that comes from the extraction and burning of fossil fuels (such as coal, oil, and natural gas), from wildfires, and natural processes like volcanic eruptions. The first graph shows atmospheric CO2 levels measured by NOAA at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii, since 1958. The second graph shows CO2 levels during Earth’s last three glacial cycles, as captured by air bubbles trapped in ice sheets and glaciers. Since the onset of industrial times in the 18th century, human activities have raised atmospheric CO2 by 50% – meaning the amount of CO2 is now 150% of its value in 1750. This human-induced rise is greater than the natural increase observed at the end of the last ice age 20,000 years ago. The animated map shows how the historical changes in global carbon dioxide over time. Note the colors change as the amount of CO2 rises from 365 parts per million (ppm) in 2002 to over 420 ppm currently. It's important to understand that "parts per million" refers to the number of carbon dioxide molecules per million molecules of dry air. These measurements are from the mid-troposphere, the layer of Earth's atmosphere that is 8 to 12 kilometers (about 5 to 7 miles) above the ground. This data provides insights into the significant rise in atmospheric CO2 concentrations, highlighting the impact of human activities on Earth's climate.
Claim: the concentration of carbon dioxide in Earth’s atmosphere has climbed to a level last seen more than 3 million years ago — before humans even appeared on the rocky ball we call home (Denise Chow, 2019-05-14)
Evidence (2024-06-06): Carbon dioxide is accumulating in the atmosphere faster than ever — accelerating on a steep rise to levels far above any experienced during human existence, scientists from NOAA and the Scripps Institution of Oceanography offsite link at the University of California San Diego announced today. Levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) measured at NOAA’s Mauna Loa Atmospheric Baseline Observatory by NOAA’s Global Monitoring Laboratory surged to a seasonal peak of just under 427 parts per million (426.90 ppm) in May, when CO2 reaches its highest level in the Northern Hemisphere. That’s an increase of 2.9 ppm over May 2023 and the 5th-largest annual growth in NOAA’s 50-year record. When combined with 2023’s increase of 3.0 ppm, the period from 2022 to 2024 has seen the largest two-year jump in the May peak in the NOAA record. [...] "Not only is CO2 now at the highest level in millions of years, it is also rising faster than ever," said Keeling. "Each year achieves a higher maximum due to fossil-fuel burning, which releases pollution in the form of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. Fossil fuel pollution just keeps building up, much like trash in a landfill."
Claim: the concentration of carbon dioxide in Earth’s atmosphere has climbed to a level last seen more than 3 million years ago — before humans even appeared on the rocky ball we call home (Denise Chow, 2019-05-14)
Evidence (2024-06-06): The amount of planet-warming carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere has hit a new record, as humanity struggles to rein in emissions of greenhouse gasses from burning fossil fuels. [...] This May, the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere hit nearly 427 parts per million, which is an increase of about 3 parts per million compared to last year’s peak. That’s one of the largest annual jumps on record, scientists say. [...] The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has been steadily increasing since scientists began routine measurements in 1958. At that time, the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere was 313 parts per million, slightly higher than in the 19th century, when the Industrial Revolution sparked the widespread consumption of fossil fuels.
Claim: the concentration of carbon dioxide in Earth’s atmosphere has climbed to a level last seen more than 3 million years ago — before humans even appeared on the rocky ball we call home (Denise Chow, 2019-05-14)
Evidence (2019-10-09): "One could say that because the atmosphere is so thin, the activity of 7.7 billion humans can actually make significant changes to the entire system," he added. "The composition of Earth’s atmosphere has most certainly been altered. Half of the increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations in the last 300 years has occurred since 1980, and one quarter of it since 2000. Methane concentrations have increased 2.5 times since the start of the Industrial Age, with almost all of that occurring since 1980. So changes are coming faster, and they’re becoming more significant." The concentration of carbon dioxide in Earth’s atmosphere is currently at nearly 412 parts per million (ppm) and rising. This represents a 47 percent increase since the beginning of the Industrial Age, when the concentration was near 280 ppm, and an 11 percent increase since 2000, when it was near 370 ppm. Crisp points out that scientists know the increases in carbon dioxide are caused primarily by human activities because carbon produced by burning fossil fuels has a different ratio of heavy-to-light carbon atoms, so it leaves a distinct "fingerprint" that instruments can measure. A relative decline in the amount of heavy carbon-13 isotopes in the atmosphere points to fossil fuel sources. Burning fossil fuels also depletes oxygen and lowers the ratio of oxygen to nitrogen in the atmosphere.
Claim: the concentration of carbon dioxide in Earth’s atmosphere has climbed to a level last seen more than 3 million years ago — before humans even appeared on the rocky ball we call home (Denise Chow, 2019-05-14)
Evidence (2023-06-20): Global Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO₂) [...] The visualization featured on this page shows the atmosphere in three dimensions and highlights the accumulation of CO₂ during a single calendar year (January 1-December 31, 2021). Every year, the world’s vegetation and oceans absorb about half of human CO₂ emissions, providing an incredibly valuable service that has mitigated the rate of accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. However, around 2.5 parts per million remain in the atmosphere every year causing a steady upward march in concentrations that scientists have tracked since the 1950s at surface stations.
Claim: the concentration of carbon dioxide in Earth’s atmosphere has climbed to a level last seen more than 3 million years ago — before humans even appeared on the rocky ball we call home (Denise Chow, 2019-05-14)
Evidence (2022-06-03): Carbon dioxide measured at NOAA’s Mauna Loa Atmospheric Baseline Observatory peaked for 2022 at 421 parts per million in May, pushing the atmosphere further into territory not seen for millions of years, scientists from NOAA and Scripps Institution of Oceanography offsite link at the University of California San Diego announced today. [...] Prior to the Industrial Revolution, CO2 levels were consistently around 280 ppm for almost 6,000 years of human civilization. Since then, humans have generated an estimated 1.5 trillion tons of CO2 pollution offsite link, much of which will continue to warm the atmosphere for thousands of years. CO2 levels are now comparable to the Pliocene Climatic Optimum, between 4.1 and 4.5 million years ago, when they were close to, or above 400 ppm. During that time, sea levels were between 5 and 25 meters higher than today offsite link, high enough to drown many of the world’s largest modern cities. Temperatures then averaged 7 degrees Fahrenheit higher than in pre-industrial times, and studies indicate offsite link that large forests occupied today’s Arctic tundra.
Claim: the concentration of carbon dioxide in Earth’s atmosphere has climbed to a level last seen more than 3 million years ago — before humans even appeared on the rocky ball we call home (Denise Chow, 2019-05-14)
Evidence (2019-05-14): In the latest bit of bad news for a planet beset by climate change, the concentration of carbon dioxide in Earth’s atmosphere has climbed to a level last seen more than 3 million years ago — before humans even appeared on the rocky ball we call home. [...] The level of CO2 in the atmosphere has risen an average of 2.5 ppm per year over the past decade, reaching 400 ppm in 2013 — and the level appears likely to go higher from here. [...] The last time levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide were this high came during the Pliocene Epoch, which extended from about 5.3 million to 2.6 million years ago. During that period, average sea levels were about 50 feet higher than they are today and forests grew as far north as the Arctic, said Rob Jackson, a professor of earth system science at Stanford University. "Earth was a very different place," he said. "You would hardly recognize the land surface, and my gosh, we don’t want to go there."
Claim: the concentration of carbon dioxide in Earth’s atmosphere has climbed to a level last seen more than 3 million years ago — before humans even appeared on the rocky ball we call home (Denise Chow, 2019-05-14)
Evidence (2019-05-18): Accurate: It is possible that the concentration of atmospheric CO2 was this high a little less than 3 million years ago, but it is certainly true that this was before the appearance of humans. [...] 1. Estimates for CO2 in pre-ice-core time (>~0.8 Ma) are much less certain. So 415 might be as high as the Earth has been in the last 3 million years, but it’s not out of the range of estimates that hasn’t been this high in 15-18 million years. Even for the warm middle-late Eocene (34-56 million years ago) there are CO2 estimates as low as 400-500 ppm (though also many more near 1000 ppm). So it is possible that today’s levels (and especially those of the next few decades) might be unprecedented in the last 45-50 Ma. As with so much news about climate, we try to be "reasonable" from the start, but the upper bounds of our estimates don’t exclude much more extreme scenarios. The eventual equilibrium climate with 500 ppm of CO2 could mean no polar ice and hundreds of feet of sea level rise, whereas it seems extremely unlikely it would be cooler than we think.