copenlu/druid huggingface dataset:
Claim: When the exact same group of 'experts' who claimed it was global cooling in 1977 now claim it's global warming you can easily see why I am skeptical (Anonymous, 2019-12-16)
Evidence (2024-01-12): In "Assessing ExxonMobil’s Global Warming Projections," researchers from Harvard and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research show for the first time the accuracy of previously unreported forecasts created by company scientists from 1977 through 2003. The Harvard team discovered that Exxon researchers created a series of remarkably reliable models and analyses projecting global warming from carbon dioxide emissions over the coming decades. Specifically, Exxon projected that fossil fuel emissions would lead to 0.20 degrees Celsius of global warming per decade, with a margin of error of 0.04 degrees — a trend that has been proven largely accurate. "This paper is the first ever systematic assessment of a fossil fuel company’s climate projections, the first time we’ve been able to put a number on what they knew," said Geoffrey Supran, lead author and former research fellow in the History of Science at Harvard. "What we found is that between 1977 and 2003, excellent scientists within Exxon modeled and predicted global warming with, frankly, shocking skill and accuracy only for the company to then spend the next couple of decades denying that very climate science." [...] The researchers report that Exxon scientists correctly dismissed the possibility of a coming ice age, accurately predicted that human-caused global warming would first be detectable in the year 2000, plus or minus five years, and reasonably estimated how much CO2 would lead to dangerous warming.
Claim: When the exact same group of 'experts' who claimed it was global cooling in 1977 now claim it's global warming you can easily see why I am skeptical (Anonymous, 2019-12-16)
Evidence (2019-05-21): Global warming skeptics often cite contradictory reports from a generation ago warning of global cooling. In 1975 Newsweek wrote of "ominous signs" that temperatures were dipping, and a year later National Geographic suggested the possibility of a worldwide chilling trend. Stephen Schneider, a climatologist at Stanford University, recalls those stories well. "I was one of the ones who talked about global cooling," he says. "I was also the one who said what was wrong with that idea within three years." Schneider coauthored a 1971 article in the journal Science about atmospheric aerosols—floating particles of soil dust, volcanic ash, and human-made pollutants. His research suggested that industrial aerosols could block sunlight and reduce global temperatures enough to overcome the effects of greenhouse gases, possibly triggering an ice age. But he soon realized that he had overestimated the amount of aerosols in the air and underestimated the role of greenhouse gases. "Back then this science was so new, so theoretical, it was really hard to sort it out," he says. He and other early climate researchers say they did not predict a global cooling trend but simply suggested the possibility. Evidence suggests that average worldwide temperatures did decrease between the 1940s and the 1970s. Some climatologists partially attribute the temporary cooling trend to industrial smog, which has since been overcome by the effects of growing greenhouse emissions and, ironically, by clean-air laws that have reduced atmospheric particulates. "Science is a self-correcting institution," Schneider says. "The data change, so of course you change your position. Otherwise, you would be dishonest."
Claim: When the exact same group of 'experts' who claimed it was global cooling in 1977 now claim it's global warming you can easily see why I am skeptical (Anonymous, 2019-12-16)
Evidence (2008-09-01): Climate science as we know it today did not exist in the 1960s and 1970s. The integrated enterprise embodied in the Nobel Prizewinning work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change existed then as separate threads of research pursued by isolated groups of scientists. Atmospheric chemists and modelers grappled with the measurement of changes in carbon dioxide and atmospheric gases, and the changes in climate that might result. Meanwhile, geologists and paleoclimate researchers tried to understand when Earth slipped into and out of ice ages, and why. An enduring popular myth suggests that in the 1970s the climate science community was predicting "global cooling" and an "imminent" ice age, an observation frequently used by those who would undermine what climate scientists say today about the prospect of global warming. A review of the literature suggests that, on the contrary, greenhouse warming even then dominated scientists' thinking as being one of the most important forces shaping Earth's climate on human time scales. More importantly than showing the falsehood of the myth, this review describes how scientists of the time built the foundation on which the cohesive enterprise of modern climate science now rests. NOAA/National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, North Carolina British Antarctic Survey, National Environment Research Council, Cambridge, United Kingdom
Claim: When the exact same group of 'experts' who claimed it was global cooling in 1977 now claim it's global warming you can easily see why I am skeptical (Anonymous, 2019-12-16)
Evidence (2024-10-08): Before global warming, was the Earth cooling down or heating up? [...] The challenge up to now has been that our two significant lines of evidence point in opposite directions. Paleo-environmental "proxy" data, which includes evidence from oceans, lakes, and other natural archives, point to a peak global average temperature about 6,500 years ago and then a global cooling trend until humans started burning fossil fuels. Climate models generally show global average temperatures increasing in the last 6,500 years. [...] This study highlighted uncertainties in the climate models. If the authors’ preferred interpretation—that recent global warming was preceded by 6,500 years of global cooling—is correct, then scientists’ understanding of natural climate forcings and feedbacks, and how they are represented in models, needs improvement. If they’re incorrect, then scientists need to improve their understanding of the temperature signal in proxy records and further develop analytical tools to capture these trends on a global scale.
Claim: When the exact same group of 'experts' who claimed it was global cooling in 1977 now claim it's global warming you can easily see why I am skeptical (Anonymous, 2019-12-16)
Evidence (2017-11-02): On 30 October 2017, climate change denier blog "Watts Up With That?" (which bills itself as "the world’s most viewed site on global warming and climate change") published a guest essay by Leo Goldstein. This essay attempted to use a 1977 Time Magazine cover as evidence that Snopes and other news organizations had used a straw man argument in a previous debunker about Time Magazine and so-called Global Cooling. [...] Despite the fact that this article did not once mention the concept of global cooling, and despite the fact that this article was about record-setting cold temperatures in the winter of 1977 and was explicitly filed under the subject "weather," WUWT described the cover as "An example [of the] global cooling scare of the 70s." [...] It is clear that Goldstein either willfully ignored the contents of the article, or (as other prolific climate deniers proudly brag about) did not read it in the first place. The article, in brief, discussed anomalously cold temperatures during the winter of 1977, and the effect that such temperatures had on a variety of elements of American life, most notably shortages of natural gas:
Claim: When the exact same group of 'experts' who claimed it was global cooling in 1977 now claim it's global warming you can easily see why I am skeptical (Anonymous, 2019-12-16)
Evidence (2024-02-20): Ever since, Gwynne's "global cooling" story – and a similar Time Magazine piece – have been brandished gleefully by those who say it shows global warming is not happening, or at least that scientists – and often journalists – don't know what they are talking about. [...] Rush Limbaugh: "I call [global warming] a hoax… A 1975 Newsweek cover was gonna talk about the ice age coming. So they're really confused how to play it." Sean Hannity on Fox News: "If you go back to Time Magazine, they actually were proclaiming the next ice age is coming, now it's become global warming… How do you believe the same people that were predicting just a couple decades ago that the new ice age is coming?"
Claim: When the exact same group of 'experts' who claimed it was global cooling in 1977 now claim it's global warming you can easily see why I am skeptical (Anonymous, 2019-12-16)
Evidence (2016-06-07): One of the undying, zombie-like arguments against climate change is that you can’t trust climate scientists because they started out making doom and gloom claims about global cooling in the 1970s. But this, along with many other things comedian Dennis Miller has said on late night talk shows, needn’t be taken seriously. By the time fears of an ice age reached the public's attention, there was a long history of concerns about warming. The idea that burning fossil fuels would warm the planet can be traced back to an 1896 paper by Swedish scientist Svante Arrhenius. In the 1930s, Britain’s Guy Callendar concluded that global warming was already underway. So it seems a bit odd that anyone worried about cooling. What was really going on back in the '70s—both in science and in the media? [...] This was partly the result of some new fields that were opening to concerted exploration for the first time. Up-to-date estimates of global temperature were finally being maintained, and they were accompanied by ongoing atmospheric CO2 measurements, which had only started in 1958. The first punch-card-driven computer models of Earth’s climate system were being developed, giving researchers new tools to analytically attack questions about the physics of Earth's atmosphere. And we were just getting a handle on how sunlight-reflecting aerosol particles behaved in the atmosphere.
Claim: When the exact same group of 'experts' who claimed it was global cooling in 1977 now claim it's global warming you can easily see why I am skeptical (Anonymous, 2019-12-16)
Evidence (2024-10-04): Global cooling was a conjecture, especially during the 1970s, of imminent cooling of the Earth culminating in a period of extensive glaciation, due to the cooling effects of aerosols or orbital forcing. Some press reports in the 1970s speculated about continued cooling; these did not accurately reflect the scientific literature of the time, which was generally more concerned with warming from an enhanced greenhouse effect.[1] [...] Bryan Walsh of Time magazine (2013) calls this argument "the Ice Age Fallacy". Illustrating the argument, for several years an image had been circulated of a Time cover, supposedly dated 1977, showing a penguin above a cover story title "How to Survive the Coming Ice Age". In March 2013, The Mail on Sunday published an article by David Rose, showing this same cover image, to support his claim that there was as much concern in the 1970s about a "looming 'ice age'" as there was now about global warming.[56] After researching the authenticity of the magazine cover image, in July 2013, Walsh confirmed that the image was a hoax, modified from a 2007 cover story image for "The Global Warming Survival Guide".[54] See also [edit]References [edit]- ^ a b c d e f Peterson, Thomas; Connolley, William; Fleck, John (September 2008). "The Myth of the 1970s Global Cooling Scientific Consensus" (PDF). Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 89 (9): 1325–1337. Bibcode:2008BAMS...89.1325P. doi:10.1175/2008BAMS2370.1. S2CID 123635044.
Claim: When the exact same group of 'experts' who claimed it was global cooling in 1977 now claim it's global warming you can easily see why I am skeptical (Anonymous, 2019-12-16)
Evidence (2021-08-06): Modern climate science is old enough for many of its early predictions to be checked against evidence—the overall global warming trend; specific patterns like nighttime warming exceeding daytime warming; or the cooling of the stratosphere. Even with all that new evidence, the estimated amount of warming you get for a given amount of greenhouse gas emissions hasn’t really changed since 1979. [...] The reason for that is that the track record is very, very bad. Like the cringeworthy poetry you wrote in high school, they probably hope that everyone will just forget about it. What goes up must come down
Claim: When the exact same group of 'experts' who claimed it was global cooling in 1977 now claim it's global warming you can easily see why I am skeptical (Anonymous, 2019-12-16)
Evidence (2021-10-28): But this denialism is now almost nonexistent among climate scientists, as a study released this month confirms. US researchers examined the peer-reviewed literature and found more than 99% of climate scientists now endorse the evidence for human-induced climate change. [...] Read more: Consensus confirmed: over 90% of climate scientists believe we're causing global warming [...] Current rates of global warming are unprecedented in more than 2,000 years and temperatures now exceed the warmest (multi-century) period in more than 100,000 years. Global average surface temperature for the decade from 2011-20 was about 1.1°C higher than in 1850-1900. Each of the past four decades has been warmer than any preceding decade since 1850, when reliable weather observations began.
Claim: When the exact same group of 'experts' who claimed it was global cooling in 1977 now claim it's global warming you can easily see why I am skeptical (Anonymous, 2019-12-16)
Evidence (2019-12-16): This meme utilizes a widely circulated fake image purporting to show a 1977 Time magazine story titled "How To Survive The Coming Ice Age". The cover is actually from 2007, for a story titled "The Global Warming Survival Guide". While a claim of global cooling did appear a couple times in the 1970s in popular media, that did not reflect the understanding of climate scientists at the time. [...] There are many versions of memes like this one (which is currently being shared widely on Facebook) seeking to disregard the conclusions of climate science on the false premise that the issue of human-caused global warming replaced warnings of global cooling from the 1970s. Most of these memes include this doctored image labeled as a 1977 Time magazine cover for an article titled "How To Survive The Coming Ice Age". [...] - 1- Peterson et al (2008) The Myth of the 1970s Global Cooling Scientific Consensus, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society - 2- Broecker (1975) Climatic Change: Are We on the Brink of a Pronounced Global Warming?, Science - 3- National Research Council (1979) Carbon Dioxide and Climate: A Scientific Assessment [This comment is taken from a previous review of similar claim.]
Claim: When the exact same group of 'experts' who claimed it was global cooling in 1977 now claim it's global warming you can easily see why I am skeptical (Anonymous, 2019-12-16)
Evidence (2015-02-15): Paul Matthews has recently published a fascinating paper, Why are people skeptical of climate change? Paul has a blog post on the paper also [link]. The paper draws from the Reader Background thread at the Air Vent, but also mentions the Denizens at Climate Etc.
Claim: When the exact same group of 'experts' who claimed it was global cooling in 1977 now claim it's global warming you can easily see why I am skeptical (Anonymous, 2019-12-16)
Evidence (2016-04-08): "Enormously complex:" specifically, "a few scientists can be found who privately suggest that because of complex feedback phenomena the net effect of increased CO2 might be global cooling," Abelson (1977). BACK 52a. Gates (1979). BACK 53. "Our confidence in our conclusion... is based on the fact that the results of the radiative-convective and heat-balance model studies can be understood in purely physical terms and are verified by the more complex GCM's. The last... agree reasonably well with the simpler models..." National Academy of Sciences (1979), p. 12. For the Panel’s workings see Bell (2021), p. 284. BACK 54. National Academy of Sciences (1979), pp. 2, 3; see Stevens (1999), pp. 148-49. for Manabe’s account see also Stokstad (2004). Hansen's model was not published until 1983. Already in 1977 W.W. Kellogg, reporting to the WMO, had arrived at the same 3°C "with an uncertainty of roughly a factor of two,"Kellogg (1977), p. vii. Confidence: Bony et al. (2011); on this period in general see Heymann (2013). BACK 55. Hansen et al. (1981); for details of the model, see Hansen et al. (1983). I heard "march with both feet in the air" from physicist Jim Faller, my thesis adviser. BACK 56.
Claim: When the exact same group of 'experts' who claimed it was global cooling in 1977 now claim it's global warming you can easily see why I am skeptical (Anonymous, 2019-12-16)
Evidence (2024-05-21): Source: International Energy Agency and The World Bank. Data for year 2022. [...] See also R&D section below. [...] Research and development, international
Claim: When the exact same group of 'experts' who claimed it was global cooling in 1977 now claim it's global warming you can easily see why I am skeptical (Anonymous, 2019-12-16)
Evidence (2009-10-15): Empirical evidence that humans are causing global warming [...] It still surprises me when I hear skeptics claim there is no evidence that we're causing global warming. The evidence is there in the peer reviewed literature. What they're really saying is they haven't bothered to look. So to make things easier for everyone, here is the evidence that humans are causing global warming. It's not based on theory, climate models, faith or political ideology but on direct, empirical observations. The line of evidence is as follows: [...] What about claims that it hasn't warmed since 1998. Could we be experiencing global cooling? Not at all. How do we know? Think about what global warming really is. The planet is accumulating heat. More energy is coming in than is going out. Is this energy imbalance still occuring?
Claim: When the exact same group of 'experts' who claimed it was global cooling in 1977 now claim it's global warming you can easily see why I am skeptical (Anonymous, 2019-12-16)
Evidence (2024-01-23): Skeptical Science categorizes this claim as "incorrect." They explain that although Hansen’s prediction of a global temperature increase was higher than the actual warming observed, this discrepancy stems from his use of a high climate sensitivity parameter. Had Hansen employed the currently accepted value of approximately 3°C warming for a doubling of atmospheric CO2, his model would have more accurately projected the observed global warming. [...] Such claims, which mix false (frequency and intensity of droughts) and indisputable (CO2 and water efficiency of plants) elements, are typical of climate denier rhetoric. This tactic can cause confusion and obscure the overall understanding of climate change impacts. It underscores the importance of thorough and nuanced analysis when evaluating and categorizing climate-related claims. [...] Appendix F Overview Skeptical Science claims
Claim: When the exact same group of 'experts' who claimed it was global cooling in 1977 now claim it's global warming you can easily see why I am skeptical (Anonymous, 2019-12-16)
Evidence (2024-09-22): Some climate change skeptics have changed their positions regarding global warming. Ronald Bailey, author of Global Warming and Other Eco-Myths (published in 2002), stated in 2005, "Anyone still holding onto the idea that there is no global warming ought to hang it up."[308] By 2007, he wrote "Details like sea level rise will continue to be debated by researchers, but if the debate over whether or not humanity is contributing to global warming wasn't over before, it is now.... as the new IPCC Summary makes clear, climate change Pollyannaism is no longer looking very tenable."[309] [...] - ^ "UN Blowback: More Than 650 International Scientists Dissent Over Man-Made Global Warming Claims". www.epw.senate.gov. Archived from the original on 11 December 2008. Retrieved 11 December 2008. [...] - ^ Ronald Bailey (11 August 2005). "We're All Global Warmers Now". Reason Online. Archived from the original on 24 October 2006. Retrieved 27 April 2008.
Claim: When the exact same group of 'experts' who claimed it was global cooling in 1977 now claim it's global warming you can easily see why I am skeptical (Anonymous, 2019-12-16)
Evidence (2019-05-20): "When the exact same group of ‘experts’ who claimed it was global cooling in 1977 now claim it’s global warming you can see why I am easily skeptical," reads the text flanking what appear to be two Time magazine covers that Nugent posted to Facebook on May 20. The first, which the post says is from 1977, shows a penguin in snow and the headline: "How To Survive The Coming Ice Age." The second, which the post says is from 2008, is an illustration that shows the men from the iconic Iwo Jima photograph lifting a Redwood tree instead of the American flag in the original image from 1945. The cover story from that issue? "How to Win The War on Global Warming." [...] Featured Fact-check "Sorry," the headline of writer Bryan Walsh’s story says, "a TIME magazine cover did not predict a coming Ice Age." He notes that the fake 1977 cover is a doctored version of a cover from 2007 with the same penguin picture but a different title: "The Global Warming Survival Guide."
Claim: When the exact same group of 'experts' who claimed it was global cooling in 1977 now claim it's global warming you can easily see why I am skeptical (Anonymous, 2019-12-16)
Evidence (2021-08-30): Expertise: Natural Decadal Variability, Global Temperature, Global Energy Budget [...] Human-induced increases in greenhouse gases are the primary driver of global warming, contrary to claims in CFACT article [...] Published: 13 Jan 2020 1977 "coming ice age" Time magazine cover is a fake
Claim: When the exact same group of 'experts' who claimed it was global cooling in 1977 now claim it's global warming you can easily see why I am skeptical (Anonymous, 2019-12-16)
Evidence (2008-07-16): An overwhelming majority of scientists agree — global warming is happening and human activity is the primary cause. Yet several prominent global warming skeptic organizations are actively working to sow doubt about the facts of global warming. [...] These kinds of claims are nothing new for CEI. Back in 1991, CEI was claiming that "The greatest challenge we face is not warming, but cooling." [32] More recently, CEI produced an ad calling for higher levels of carbon dioxide. [33] One CEI scholar even publicly compared a prominent climate scientist to convicted child molester Jerry Sandusky. [34] [...] Popular outcry forced the Heartland Institute to pull down a controversial billboard that compared supporters of global warming facts to Unabomber Ted Kaczynski [38], bringing an early end to a planned campaign first announced in an essay by Heartland President Joseph Bast, which claimed "… the most prominent advocates of global warming aren’t scientists. They are murderers, tyrants, and madmen." [39]