copenlu/druid huggingface dataset:
Claim: Crime statistics “no longer include data from 30% of the country including the biggest and most violent cities.” (Donald Trump, 2024-06-18)
Evidence (2022-08-15): In 2022, 31% of the 18,000 law enforcement agencies across the U.S. failed to report crime data to the FBI's national database after transitioning to a new data collection system, according to the latest statistics from the FBI. Participation has improved since 2021 when almost 40% of the agencies were missing. The Marshall Project continues to follow the real-world consequences of the gaps. The missing data is not random. While 17 states had nearly perfect participation in the FBI’s crime data, less than 10% of the agencies in Florida and Pennsylvania submitted their data in 2022. Many criminologists fear the missing data means reliable crime rates will be unavailable later this decade. When local police departments don’t report data to the FBI, examining local crime trends or comparing rates in different communities becomes impossible.
Claim: Crime statistics “no longer include data from 30% of the country including the biggest and most violent cities.” (Donald Trump, 2024-06-18)
Evidence (2024-06-15): Donald Trump wrong that crime stats exclude 30% of cities, including the "biggest and most violent" [...] In a June 15 speech at "The People's Convention" in Detroit, Trump said, "Joe Biden is out the other day trying to claim that crime is down. But actually, crime is way up. They don’t report crime properly anymore, as you probably have heard. Crooked Joe is citing statistics that no longer include data from 30% of the country, including the biggest and most violent cities." [...] Even if New York hadn’t been reflected in FBI data, Trump would be wrong to lump it in with the nation’s "most violent cities," said Ernesto Lopez, a research specialist with the Council on Criminal Justice. New York "tends to have a lower homicide rate compared to other major cities, so that is not likely an issue," Lopez said.
Claim: Crime statistics “no longer include data from 30% of the country including the biggest and most violent cities.” (Donald Trump, 2024-06-18)
Evidence (2024-06-28): Nevertheless, the widespread public perception that crime is rising — a perception reinforced by presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump and many other GOP candidates — could figure prominently in November’s election. And state legislative and gubernatorial candidates from both parties likely also will cite crime statistics on the stump. [...] In May, Trump wrongly called FBI data showing a decline in crime "fake numbers." This month, he erroneously claimed that the FBI’s crime statistics exclude 30% of cities, including the "biggest and most violent." [...] The Council on Criminal Justice, a nonpartisan think tank, released a report this month urging police and the federal government to provide more timely crime data. The report emphasizes that crime data, especially national data, often lags up to a year, which hampers public understanding of crime trends and limits officials’ ability to make informed policy decisions to proactively address public safety issues.
Claim: Crime statistics “no longer include data from 30% of the country including the biggest and most violent cities.” (Donald Trump, 2024-06-18)
Evidence (2024-06-20): In a June 15 speech at "The People’s Convention" in Detroit, Trump said, "Joe Biden is out the other day trying to claim that crime is down. But actually, crime is way up. They don’t report crime properly anymore, as you probably have heard. Crooked Joe is citing statistics that no longer include data from 30 percent of the country, including the biggest and most violent cities." [...] When the 2021 data collection process was complete, the information submitted to the FBI reflected data covering about 65% of the nation’s population. This meant about 35% of the population was not covered that year, including such major cities as New York City and Los Angeles. [...] Even if New York hadn’t been reflected in FBI data, Trump would be wrong to lump it in with the nation’s "most violent cities," said Ernesto Lopez, a research specialist with the Council on Criminal Justice. New York "tends to have a lower homicide rate compared to other major cities, so that is not likely an issue," Lopez said.
Claim: Crime statistics “no longer include data from 30% of the country including the biggest and most violent cities.” (Donald Trump, 2024-06-18)
Evidence (2024-10-03): Overview - This study updates and supplements previous U.S. crime trends reports by the Council on Criminal Justice (CCJ) with additional crime data through June 2023. It examines monthly crime rates for 10 violent, property, and drug offenses in 37 American cities. The 37 cities are not necessarily representative of all cities in the United States. Not all cities reported data for each offense (see appendix), and the data used to measure the crime trends are subject to revision by local jurisdictions. [...] This report updates CCJ’s previous studies of crime changes that began during the early months of the coronavirus pandemic, extending the analyses with data through June 2023. The 37 cities included in this study were selected based on data availability (see Appendix for full list). They range from Chattanooga, TN, the smallest, with 179,690 residents, to New York, the largest, with more than 8.4 million residents. The mean population of the cities for which crime data were available is approximately 900,000, while the median population is roughly 465,500. [...] 1 Efforts to compile crime data continued through July 12, 2023. Cities that had not posted June 2023 crime data on their websites by that date could not be included in this report.
Claim: Crime statistics “no longer include data from 30% of the country including the biggest and most violent cities.” (Donald Trump, 2024-06-18)
Evidence (2024-02-23): Crime rates were highest in the West; the region’s property crime rate was 36.7% higher than the rest of the country, and the violent crime rate was 27.1% higher. [...] Over 70% percent of violent crimes in 2022 were aggravated assaults, followed by robbery (17.4%), rape (10.5%), and homicide (1.7%). Overall, the violent crime rate fell 1.6% between 2021 and 2022, primarily because of lower rates of aggravated assault (the majority of violent crime since 1982). [...] Violent crime rates decreased between 1991 and 2022 in 40 states and Washington, DC. It declined by over 70% in Connecticut, Illinois, and Florida.
Claim: Crime statistics “no longer include data from 30% of the country including the biggest and most violent cities.” (Donald Trump, 2024-06-18)
Evidence (2024-10-03): This report updates CCJ’s previous studies of crime changes that began during the early months of the coronavirus pandemic, extending the analyses with data through June 2024. The 39 cities included in this study were selected based on the availability of data at the time of data collection in early July (see the Appendix for full list). They range from Syracuse, NY, the smallest, with about 142,000 residents, to New York City, the largest, with more than 8.4 million residents. The mean population of the cities for which crime data were available is approximately 810,000, while the median population is roughly 480,000. [...] 1 Efforts to compile crime data continued through July 12, 2024. Cities that had not posted full June 2024 crime data on their websites by that date could not be included in this report. [...] This study provides up-to-date U.S. crime trends for fewer than 40 cities—a sample limited to large and medium jurisdictions that have consistently reported monthly data over the past six years. While it provides key analyses to advance understanding of current trends, it is not an adequate substitute for timely, accurate, and complete crime data on a much larger scale. In April 2023, the Council on Criminal Justice convened a panel of expert producers and consumers of crime data, the Crime Trends Working Group, to explore changing crime patterns and propose ways to improve the country’s crime data infrastructure. The Working Group’s deliberations produced consensus on multiple areas for urgent action by federal, state, and local agencies, recommendations that were published in June 2024 and can be found here.
Claim: Crime statistics “no longer include data from 30% of the country including the biggest and most violent cities.” (Donald Trump, 2024-06-18)
Evidence (2023-05-11): All big cities have a violence problem. Chicago's is different. [...] Those homicide rates are up there with the most violent cities on Earth, according to data analytics company Statista. The world's most violent city, Tijuana, Mexico, has a murder rate of 138 per 100,000 residents.
Claim: Crime statistics “no longer include data from 30% of the country including the biggest and most violent cities.” (Donald Trump, 2024-06-18)
Evidence (2021-09-27): Detroit remains among nation's most violent big cities, FBI statistics show Detroit — With assaults, shootings and homicides on the rise across the country, Detroit continued last year to be among the most violent big cities in America, according to FBI statistics released Monday. [...] Alabama, Maryland and Pennsylvania reported limited data to the FBI in 2020, so cities with more than 100,000 residents that often appear high in crime rankings, such as Birmingham, Baltimore and Philadelphia, are not included in this year's data.
Claim: Crime statistics “no longer include data from 30% of the country including the biggest and most violent cities.” (Donald Trump, 2024-06-18)
Evidence (2022-07-12): After years of decline, crime rose during the Covid-19 pandemic, particularly violent crime. Using available but incomplete data, this analysis seeks to set out a clear and accurate summary of what is known so far about recent trends in crime and violence.
Claim: Crime statistics “no longer include data from 30% of the country including the biggest and most violent cities.” (Donald Trump, 2024-06-18)
Evidence (2024-03-14): In 2020, there were 1,155,610 drug arrests in the U.S., the vast majority of which (86.7%) were for drug possession or use rather than for sale or manufacturing. See Crime in the United States Annual Reports, 2020, "Persons Arrested" Table 29 and the Arrests for Drug Abuse Violations table (available for download here). In 2021, the FBI (which aggregates these data from local law enforcement agencies) began requiring all agencies to report data using the NIBRS system, and no longer accepted reporting through the Unified Crime Reporting program. While this switch was planned years in advance, this resulted in "a massive gap in information," as almost 40% of agencies submitted no data in 2021, including those in large cities like New York and Los Angeles. Therefore, crime and arrest data from 2021 are less reliable than past years. For that reason, we caution against relying on the national arrest data from 2021. In 2022, the FBI accepted data through both the old and new systems, so 2022 data cover more jurisdictions than 2021; still, in 10 states (including large states like Florida, Illinois, and Georgia) less than 60% of law enforcement agencies submitted data. ↩
Claim: Crime statistics “no longer include data from 30% of the country including the biggest and most violent cities.” (Donald Trump, 2024-06-18)
Evidence (2024-02-12): The number of murders across the country surged by nearly 30% between 2019 and 2020, according to FBI statistics. The overall violent crime rate, which includes murder, assault, robbery and rape, inched up around 5% in the same period.
Claim: Crime statistics “no longer include data from 30% of the country including the biggest and most violent cities.” (Donald Trump, 2024-06-18)
Evidence (2021-10-27): The U.S. murder rate rose 30% between 2019 and 2020 – the largest single-year increase in more than a century, according to data published this month by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The findings align with a separate tabulation of the nation’s murder rate published in September by the FBI.
Claim: Crime statistics “no longer include data from 30% of the country including the biggest and most violent cities.” (Donald Trump, 2024-06-18)
Evidence (2024-06-27): There have been recent high-profile and heinous crimes allegedly committed by people in the country illegally. But FBI statistics do not separate out crimes by the immigration status of the assailant, nor is there any evidence of a spike in crime perpetrated by migrants, either along the U.S.-Mexico border or in cities seeing the greatest influx of migrants, like New York. Studies have found that people living in the country illegally are less likely than native-born Americans to have been arrested for violent, drug and property crimes. [...] Trump, meanwhile, contends the FBI’s statistics are skewed and don’t tell the real story. In his June 15 speech, Trump falsely claimed the statistics "no longer include data from 30% of the country including the biggest and most violent cities." While it’s true that some law enforcement agencies didn’t provide data to the FBI, a change in collection methods helped close the gap. The FBI said the 2022 report is based on data from 83.3% of all agencies covering 93.5% of the population. By contrast, the 2021 report contained data from 62.7% of agencies, representing 64.8% of Americans. For agencies that didn’t provide data, the FBI estimates the numbers based on comparably sized cities.
Claim: Crime statistics “no longer include data from 30% of the country including the biggest and most violent cities.” (Donald Trump, 2024-06-18)
Evidence (2024-03-22): The Major Cities Police Association's Violent Crime Survey found double-digit declines in homicide across nearly 70 of America's largest cities in 2023 compared 2022. [...] Boyce said while overall crime has fallen substantially in the past two years, it is still higher than it was in 2019 before homicides soared 30% in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic that shut down criminal courts and prompted a reduction in prison and jail populations throughout the country to curb the virus. It was also a time when the George Floyd police custody killing in Minnesota triggered protests and demands to defund police agencies.
Claim: Crime statistics “no longer include data from 30% of the country including the biggest and most violent cities.” (Donald Trump, 2024-06-18)
Evidence (2024-05-31): In 2022, more than three in five people (63%) sentenced to state prison had been convicted of a violent crime,18 as compared with 1970 when 30% of people in prison had been convicted of violence.19
Claim: Crime statistics “no longer include data from 30% of the country including the biggest and most violent cities.” (Donald Trump, 2024-06-18)
Evidence (2023-07-13): More than 6,000 law enforcement agencies were missing from the FBI’s national crime data last year, representing nearly one-third of the nation’s 18,000 police agencies. This means a quarter of the U.S. population wasn't represented in the federal crime data last year, according to The Marshall Project’s analysis. [...] The data issues affected hate crime statistics as well. When the FBI first unveiled the hate crime numbers, it looked like they had dropped significantly. But the report missed hate crimes from nearly 40% of law enforcement agencies in the country, and the agency faced outcry from experts and policymakers who said the numbers were "worse than meaningless." [...] As many police departments are still in the process of complying with the FBI’s new reporting requirements, experts predict that the national crime data is likely to be incomplete for years to come, and will leave more room to politicize crime statistics without concrete evidence. These issues are likely to become more urgent as the country moves closer to another election cycle where crime is certain to be a potent issue: In 2024, the FBI is likely to release its national crime data just before the election.
Claim: The 9th Circuit Court of Appeals “just ruled Covid vax mandates unconstitutional.” (Robert F. Kennedy Jr., 2024-06-12)
Evidence (2024-06-12): The 9th Circuit Court of Appeals overturned a lower court’s dismissal of a lawsuit challenging the constitutionality of a school district’s policy that required staff vaccination against COVID-19. Legal experts who follow vaccination and health law told PolitiFact that the appeals court didn’t rule on the vaccine mandate’s constitutionality. The appeals court ruling said the lower court might have incorrectly applied a U.S. Supreme Court precedent related to vaccination mandates.
Claim: The 9th Circuit Court of Appeals “just ruled Covid vax mandates unconstitutional.” (Robert F. Kennedy Jr., 2024-06-12)
Evidence (2024-10-06): LAS VEGAS (CN) — A Ninth Circuit panel on Wednesday confirmed the legality of President Joe Biden's Covid vaccine mandate for federal contractors, reversing a permanent injunction on enforcement in the state of Arizona. [...] Then-Arizona Attorney General Mark Brnovich sued Biden, the U.S. government and various Arizona state agencies after Biden’s 2021 announcement that all federal employees and contractors, along with employees of private employers with 100 or more workers, must receive the Covid-19 vaccine, and that government agencies can only do business with contractors that follow to Covid-19 guidelines. Brnovich and the state claimed Biden’s order violated the Procurement Act, which gives the president power to regulate government agencies’ spending in a way that "advances economy and efficiency" of the nation. [...] Given the context of an unprecedented pandemic that claimed more than one million American lives and billions in economic losses, the panel concluded that Biden violated no laws when he issued the vaccine mandate.
Claim: The 9th Circuit Court of Appeals “just ruled Covid vax mandates unconstitutional.” (Robert F. Kennedy Jr., 2024-06-12)
Evidence (2024-01-01): 9th Circ.'s Vax Ruling Adds To Uncertainty For Contractors
Claim: The 9th Circuit Court of Appeals “just ruled Covid vax mandates unconstitutional.” (Robert F. Kennedy Jr., 2024-06-12)
Evidence (2021-11-06): US court blocks Biden's vaccine mandate for companies A US appeals court has temporarily blocked President Joe Biden's plans for a vaccine mandate for businesses. [...] Republican Texas Governor Greg Abbott, who has opposed government mandates on vaccines and masks, applauded the court's decision.
Claim: The 9th Circuit Court of Appeals “just ruled Covid vax mandates unconstitutional.” (Robert F. Kennedy Jr., 2024-06-12)
Evidence (2024-05-13): US appeals court rejects CU’s vaccine mandate, cites ‘religious animus’ by: Heather Willard [...] DENVER (KDVR) — A U.S. Court of Appeals ruled on May 7 that the University of Colorado Anschutz School of Medicine‘s COVID-19 vaccination mandate and refusal to include a religious exemption were unconstitutional under the First Amendment, according to court documents. [...] According to the appeals decision, the court found that the administration "decided that ‘it is ‘morally acceptable’ for Roman Catholics to take vaccines against COVID-19 and that any Roman Catholic objections to the COVID-19 vaccine are ‘personal beliefs,’ not ‘religious beliefs.'"
Claim: The 9th Circuit Court of Appeals “just ruled Covid vax mandates unconstitutional.” (Robert F. Kennedy Jr., 2024-06-12)
Evidence (2024-06-07): Los Angeles United School District officials must face a lawsuit from workers alleging the district vaccine mandate violated employees’ constitutional due process rights, a divided Ninth Circuit said Friday. The district court wrongly dismissed the suit by applying a 1905 US Supreme Court case, Jacobson v. Massachusetts, upholding a smallpox vaccine mandate, Judge The employees sufficiently alleged that the smallpox vaccine isn’t comparable to the Covid vaccine because the latter only reduces symptoms—so the court shouldn’t have dismissed the case under Jacobson, Nelson said, remanding the case back ...
Claim: The 9th Circuit Court of Appeals “just ruled Covid vax mandates unconstitutional.” (Robert F. Kennedy Jr., 2024-06-12)
Evidence (2024-07-02): "The ranks of the conspiracy theorists now include the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals, which just ruled Covid vax mandates unconstitutional because the vaccine does not stop transmission," Kennedy wrote in a June 12 Facebook post. "I dunno, maybe it’s the brain worm, but I seem to remember the experts and authorities telling us otherwise." [...] The 9th Circuit Court of Appeals on June 7 ruled only that the lawsuit filed against the Los Angeles Unified School District could move forward. It overturned a lower court decision to dismiss the lawsuit, which was brought by the nonprofit Health Freedom Defense Fund, which advocates against vaccine mandates, and employees who opposed the district’s COVID-19 vaccination mandate. [...] The 9th Circuit Court of Appeals ruled 2-1 to vacate a lower court’s dismissal of the vaccine mandate lawsuit; it did not rule on whether a vaccine mandate is constitutional.
Claim: The 9th Circuit Court of Appeals “just ruled Covid vax mandates unconstitutional.” (Robert F. Kennedy Jr., 2024-06-12)
Evidence (2024-09-04): Private and public employers will want to reconsider imposing a vaccine mandate the next time a public health crisis occurs. A federal court just ruled against the constitutionality of COVID-19 vaccine mandates — and the ruling is liable to reach well beyond the 2020 coronavirus outbreak. [...] Note: SCOTUS recently vacated three lower court decisions on COVID-19 vaccine mandates because the employers had rescinded their policies. SCOTUS ruled those decisions as moot. LAUSD attempted to argue its policy was moot but failed to sway the 9th Circuit judges. [...] The 9th Circuit didn’t mince words on the school district’s policy — or the efficacy of COVID-19 vaccines for that matter: "Jacobson held that mandatory vaccinations were rationally related to preventing the spread of smallpox. … [LAUSD employees] allege that the vaccine does not effectively prevent spread but only mitigates symptoms for the recipient and therefore is akin to a medical treatment, not a ‘traditional’ vaccine. Taking plaintiffs’ allegations as true at this stage of litigation, plaintiffs plausibly alleged that the COVID-19 vaccine does not effectively ‘prevent the spread’ of COVID-19."
Claim: The 9th Circuit Court of Appeals “just ruled Covid vax mandates unconstitutional.” (Robert F. Kennedy Jr., 2024-06-12)
Evidence (2024-07-10): 9th Circuit Vaccine Mandate Ruling Mired By Dis-ingenious Framing From Vaccine Skeptics. A little over a week ago there was a small revival in the debate surrounding COVID-19 vaccine mandates, coming in the form of a 9th circuit appellate court ruling. The ruling brought forth comments from many of the usual popular vaccine skeptics, with RFK Jr’s diatribe on twitter about how the court ruled COVID vaccine mandates were unconstitutional due to them not stopping transmission serving as the most prominent instance I came across on social media.
Claim: The 9th Circuit Court of Appeals “just ruled Covid vax mandates unconstitutional.” (Robert F. Kennedy Jr., 2024-06-12)
Evidence (2024-06-09): A California lawsuit suing the state over a COVID-era vaccine mandate received new life on Friday after the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals overturned a lower court's dismissal of the lawsuit. The lawsuit targeted Los Angeles schools that imposed a vaccine mandate on its workers. Attorneys for the schools had argued that the lawsuit was moot given the end of the mandate in 2023. The Ninth Circuit disagreed, ruling 2-1 that the workers could move forward with the case. [...] The ruling comes roughly a year after California reversed course on a vaccine mandate for students. That move came as part of a wider rollback of Gov. Gavin Newsom's expansive COVID-19 restrictions.