copenlu/druid huggingface dataset:
Claim: Sea level rise could reach six or seven feet by the year 2100. (Justin Gillis, 2016-06-09)
Evidence (2016-06-09): Continuing greenhouse gas emissions growth could result in a sea level rise of 0.5 meters (20 inches) to as much as 1 or 2 meters (3.3-6.6 feet) by the year 2100.
Claim: Sea level rise could reach six or seven feet by the year 2100. (Justin Gillis, 2016-06-09)
Evidence (2021-02-16): endobj 2 0 obj <>stream application/pdfdoi:10.1038/s41612-020-0121-5Estimating global mean sea-level rise and its uncertainties by 2100 and 2300 from an expert surveyBenjamin P. HortonNicole S. KhanNiamh CahillJanice S. H. LeeTimothy A. ShawAndra J. GarnerAndrew C. KempSimon E. EngelhartStefan RahmstorfSpringer USnpj Climate and Atmospheric Science, doi:10.1038/s41612-020-0121-510.1038/s41612-020-0121-5http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41612-020-0121-5journalnpj Climate and Atmospheric Science© 2020, The Author(s)2397-372210.1038/s41612-020-0121-5springer.comspringerlink.com2010-04-23True10.1038/s41612-020-0121-5springer.comspringerlink.comSpringer2021-02-16T15:26:48+01:002020-06-01T12:50:44+05:302021-02-16T15:26:48+01:00TrueiText® 5.3.5 ©2000-2012 1T3XT BVBA (SPRINGER SBM; licensed version)VoRuuid:16a3b0fa-8478-4ed8-a819-d9360bbad260uuid:d65af8ce-e424-40bf-ad51-0d0a7961608cdefault1converteduuid:47dbc056-f6ef-44e8-80a3-5aa5e74dbce0converted to PDF/A-2bpdfToolbox2020-06-01T12:51:43+05:302BBenjamin P. Hortonhttp://orcid.org/0000-0001-9245-3768Niamh Cahillhttp://orcid.org/0000-0003-3086-550XJanice S. H. Leehttp://orcid.org/0000-0001-6368-6212Timothy A. Shawhttp://orcid.org/0000-0002-9007-637XAndra J. Garnerhttp://orcid.org/0000-0002-4994-9271Simon E. Engelharthttp://orcid.org/0000-0002-4431-4664Stefan Rahmstorfhttp://orcid.org/0000-0001-6786-7723http://ns.adobe.com/pdf/1.3/pdfAdobe PDF SchemainternalA name object indicating whether the document has been modified to include trapping informationTrappedTexthttp://ns.adobe.com/pdfx/1.3/pdfxpdfxinternalID of PDF/X standardGTS_PDFXVersionTextinternalConformance level of PDF/X standardGTS_PDFXConformanceTextinternalCompany creating the PDFCompanyTextinternalDate when document was last modifiedSourceModifiedTextexternalMirrors crossmark:CrosMarkDomainsCrossMarkDomainsSeq TextinternalMirrors crossmark:DOIdoiTexthttp://ns.adobe.com/xap/1.0/mm/xmpMMXMP Media Management SchemainternalUUID based identifier for specific incarnation of a documentInstanceIDURIinternalThe common identifier for all versions and renditions of a document.OriginalDocumentIDURIhttp://www.aiim.org/pdfa/ns/id/pdfaidPDF/A ID SchemainternalPart of PDF/A standardpartIntegerinternalAmendment of PDF/A standardamdTextinternalConformance level of PDF/A standardconformanceTexthttp://crossref.org/crossmark/1.0/crossmarkcrossmarkinternalCrossMarkDomainsCrossMarkDomainsSeq TextinternalCrossmarkDomainExclusiveCrossmarkDomainExclusiveTextinternalUsual same as prism:doiDOITextexternalThe date when a publication was published.MajorVersionDateTexthttp://prismstandard.org/namespaces/basic/2.0/prismPrismexternalThe aggregation type specifies the unit of aggregation for a content collection. [...] VoR = Version of Record CVoR = Corrected Version of Record
Claim: Sea level rise could reach six or seven feet by the year 2100. (Justin Gillis, 2016-06-09)
Evidence (2018-02-13): This acceleration, driven mainly by increased melting in Greenland and Antarctica, has the potential to double the total sea level rise projected by 2100 when compared to projections that assume a constant rate of sea level rise, according to lead author Steve Nerem. Nerem is a professor of Aerospace Engineering Sciences at the University of Colorado Boulder, a fellow at Colorado's Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), and a member of NASA's Sea Level Change team. [...] If the rate of ocean rise continues to change at this pace, sea level will rise 26 inches (65 centimeters) by 2100 — enough to cause significant problems for coastal cities, according to the new assessment by Nerem and colleagues from NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland; CU Boulder; the University of South Florida in Tampa; and Old Dominion University in Norfolk, Virginia. The team, driven to understand and better predict Earth's response to a warming world, published their work Feb. 12 in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. "This is almost certainly a conservative estimate," Nerem said. "Our extrapolation assumes that sea level continues to change in the future as it has over the last 25 years. Given the large changes we are seeing in the ice sheets today, that's not likely."
Claim: Sea level rise could reach six or seven feet by the year 2100. (Justin Gillis, 2016-06-09)
Evidence (2019-09-25): Sea level will continue to rise for centuries. It could reach around 30-60 cm by 2100 even if greenhouse gas emissions are sharply reduced and global warming is limited to well below 2°C, but around 60-110 cm if greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase strongly. [...] "This new assessment has also revised upwards the projected contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to sea level rise by 2100 in the case of high emissions of greenhouse gases," she said. "The wide range of sea level projections for 2100 and beyond is related to how ice sheets will react to warming, especially in Antarctica, with major uncertainties still remaining." [...] Sea level rise will increase the frequency of extreme sea level events, which occur for example during high tides and intense storms. Indications are that with any degree of additional warming, events that occurred once per century in the past will occur every year by mid-century in many regions, increasing risks for many low-lying coastal cities and small islands.
Claim: Sea level rise could reach six or seven feet by the year 2100. (Justin Gillis, 2016-06-09)
Evidence (2022-08-11): "With 30 years of data, we can finally see what a huge impact we have on the Earth’s climate," said Josh Willis, an oceanographer at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory and NASA’s project scientist for Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich. "The rise of sea level caused by human interference with the climate now dwarfs the natural cycles. And it is happening faster and faster every decade." [...] While a few millimeters of sea level rise per year may seem small, scientists estimate that every 2.5 centimeters (1 inch) of sea level rise translates into 2.5 meters (8.5 feet) of beachfront lost along the average coast. It also means that high tides and storm surges can rise even higher, bringing more coastal flooding, even on sunny days. In a report issued in February 2022, U.S. scientists concluded that by 2050 sea level along U.S. coastlines could rise between 25 to 30 centimeters (10 to 12 inches) above today’s levels. "What stands out from the satellite altimetry record is that the rise over 30 years is about ten times bigger than the natural exchange of water between ocean and land in a year," Willis said. "In other words, the human-caused rise in global sea level is now ten times bigger than the natural cycles."
Claim: Sea level rise could reach six or seven feet by the year 2100. (Justin Gillis, 2016-06-09)
Evidence (2019-10-29): Central estimates in the recent literature broadly agree that global mean sea level is likely to rise 20–30 cm by 20503,4,5,6,7,8,9,10. End-of-century projections diverge more, with typical central estimates ranging from 50–70 cm under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 70–100 cm under RCP 8.53,9,10,12, though more recent projections incorporating Antarctic ice sheet dynamics indicate that sea levels may rise 70–100 cm under RCP 4.5 and 100–180 cm under RCP 8.5, and could even exceed 2 m or more in far-tail scenarios4,7,8,11. Via a structured elicitation of opinion, experts now estimate there is a 5 percent chance 21st century sea-level rise will exceed 2 m29. Essentially all estimates are below the vertical bias of SRTM. Of these, we consider two representative sea-level projections for this assessment, labeled here as K143 and K174. K14 is a probabilistic projection that is closely aligned with IPCC findings10,30, while K17 is not probabilistic and emphasizes the possibility of more rapid sea-level rise because of unstable ice-sheet dynamics31. Further details of these models are discussed in the methods section. [...] Church, J. A. et al. Sea-level rise by 2100. Science342, 1445 (2013).
Claim: Sea level rise could reach six or seven feet by the year 2100. (Justin Gillis, 2016-06-09)
Evidence (2021-10-12): A new study from Climate Central, a nonprofit research group, shows that roughly 50 major coastal cities will need to implement "unprecedented" adaptation measures to prevent rising seas from swallowing their most populated areas. [...] Small island nations at risk of "near-total loss" of land, the report says, and eight of the top 10 areas exposed to sea level rise are in Asia, with approximately 600 million people exposed to inundation under a 3-degree warming scenario. [...] If the planet hits 3 degrees, Climate Central reports that roughly 43 million people in China will live on land projected to be below high-tide levels by 2100, with 200 million people living in areas at risk of sea level rise over the longer term.
Claim: Sea level rise could reach six or seven feet by the year 2100. (Justin Gillis, 2016-06-09)
Evidence (2013-10-30): NOAA's Sea Level Rise map viewer gives users a way to visualize community-level impacts from coastal flooding or sea level rise (up to 10 feet above average high tides). Photo simulations of how future flooding might impact local landmarks are also provided, as well as data related to water depth, connectivity, flood frequency, socio-economic vulnerability, wetland loss and migration, and mapping confidence. The viewer shows areas along the contiguous United States coast, except for the Great Lakes. [...] - Open the Sea Level Rise Viewer Site and then click the Get Started button. [...] - Click the ? in the lower right corner for additional information.
Claim: Sea level rise could reach six or seven feet by the year 2100. (Justin Gillis, 2016-06-09)
Evidence (2021-08-30): Estimating global mean sea-level rise and its uncertainties by 2100 and 2300 from an expert survey [...] a–f, GWLs reached by 2100 (distinguished by colour) causing the present-day 100-yr ESL event to become at least an annual event for 179 tide-gauge locations at which estimates are available from all three studies (a, c and e) and for 7,283 locations at which ESL estimates are available from the two model-based studies (b, d and f)). a, Central estimates for 179 tide-gauge locations for which all six alternative projections are available. b, Central estimate for 7,283 locations for which four alternative projections are available. c, Upper bound for the 179 locations. d, Upper bound for the 7,283 locations. e, Lower bound for the 179 locations. f, Lower bound for the 7,283 locations. Central estimates, lower and upper bound, as defined in the Methods, are shown from top to bottom respectively. The + sign associated with 2 and 5 °C indicates projections that include SEJ-derived estimates of ice-sheet contribution to RSLC. [...] Jackson, L. P., Grinsted, A. & Jevrejeva, S. 21st century sea-level rise in line with the Paris accord. Earth’s Future6, 213–229 (2018).
Claim: Sea level rise could reach six or seven feet by the year 2100. (Justin Gillis, 2016-06-09)
Evidence (2024-10-08): In coming decades, sea level rise will pose a growing threat to coastal communities, putting millions of people at risk of displacement. [...] Internationally, our report urges stronger commitments from world leaders. Current global policies are insufficient to limit warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. [...] Immediate, transformative policy changes are now necessary if we are to avoid the worst effects of climate change.
Claim: Sea level rise could reach six or seven feet by the year 2100. (Justin Gillis, 2016-06-09)
Evidence (2022-10-25): The new estimates are based on multiple lines of evidence and physical plausibility for each sea-level component, including the critical Antarctic ice sheet contribution. This approach leads to substantially lower numbers than the structured expert judgement used in the latest IPPC-AR6 report for strong warming scenarios at the end of the century: a difference of around 30 cm lower compared with the high impact low likelihood scenarios of IPCC-AR6. The high-end global mean sea-level rise is now projected to be up to 1.3-1.6 meters for strong warming in 2100. The collapse of major Antarctic ice shelves at the end of the century followed by increased discharge of ice may lead to a 9-10 meter catastrophic sea-level rise by 2300 under the same strong warming scenario. Fulfilling the Paris Agreement will greatly reduce the potential or high-end sea-level rise to 2.2-2.5 m, but not stop sea-level rise to 2300. Hence, we need to be prepared to both mitigate climate change and adapt in coastal areas—but such adaptation is feasible for this magnitude of change over multiple centuries in many places. [...] A high-end estimate of sea-level rise for practitioners: R. S. W. van de Wal, R. J. Nicholls, D. Behar, K. McInnes, D. Stammer, J. A. Lowe, J. A. Church, R. DeConto, X. Fettweis, H. Goelzer, M. Haasnoot, I. D. Haigh, J. Hinkel, B. P. Horton, T. S. James, A. Jenkins, G. LeCozannet, A. Levermann, W. H. Lipscomb, B. Marzeion, F. Pattyn, T. Payne, T. Pfeffer, S. F. Price, H. Seroussi, S. Sun, W. Veatch, K. White, Earth Future.
Claim: Sea level rise could reach six or seven feet by the year 2100. (Justin Gillis, 2016-06-09)
Evidence (2024-09-25): How much it rises will depend on the amount of greenhouse gases added to the atmosphere moving forward. To explore the possibilities, scientists use emission scenarios. These show the possible range, from low to high, for the amount of greenhouse gases added to the atmosphere between now and 2100. The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) from August 2021 used these emission scenarios to project sea level rise by 2100. They found that global sea levels could rise by anywhere between 0.9 to 3.3 feet (0.27 to 1.01 meters) by 2100, with even higher amounts possible depending on what happens with the ice sheets. The 2022 Interagency Technical Report created five sea level scenarios to show different levels that sea level rise could reach in the United States. These include different levels of greenhouse gas emissions, global warming, and water added to the ocean from land ice melting. All of the scenarios had sea levels rising around 12 inches (0.3 meters) by 2050. Then, the most likely scenarios had sea levels rising from 2.3 to 4 feet (0.7 to 1.2 meters) by 2100 in the U.S. depending on greenhouse gas emissions today and in the future. Although, higher levels are possible in some locations, such as the Gulf Coast. Other factors, such as changes in land height and ocean currents, play a large role in local sea level change and will continue to do so in the future.
Claim: Sea level rise could reach six or seven feet by the year 2100. (Justin Gillis, 2016-06-09)
Evidence (2024-09-24): Sea level rise lags behind changes in the Earth's temperature by many decades, and sea level rise will therefore continue to accelerate between now and 2050 in response to warming that has already happened.[7] What happens after that depends on human greenhouse gas emissions. If there are very deep cuts in emissions, sea level rise would slow between 2050 and 2100. It could then reach by 2100 slightly over 30 cm (1 ft) from now and approximately 60 cm (2 ft) from the 19th century. With high emissions it would instead accelerate further, and could rise by 1.0 m (3+1⁄3 ft) or even 1.6 m (5+1⁄3 ft) by 2100.[5][3]: 1302 In the long run, sea level rise would amount to 2–3 m (7–10 ft) over the next 2000 years if warming stays to its current 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) over the pre-industrial past. It would be 19–22 metres (62–72 ft) if warming peaks at 5 °C (9.0 °F).[5]: 21
Claim: Sea level rise could reach six or seven feet by the year 2100. (Justin Gillis, 2016-06-09)
Evidence (2024-06-12): By 2100, we could see as little as 8 inches of additional sea level rise, or over 6 feet—based partly on how much we continue to pollute the climate, and partly on how the oceans respond to climate change that's already baked in. [...] An important question is how much climate-warming greenhouse gas we continue to put in the atmosphere. In the rosiest possible future, global average sea level will rise another 20 to 50 centimeters (8 to 20 inches) by the year 2100. Minchew says the low end of that range would require humanity to achieve negative greenhouse gas emissions—in other words, not only stopping new emissions but also removing some excess greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere. The higher end, 50 cm, would occur if we did not meaningfully manage to cut our emissions, but still avoided a spike in sea levels from the collapse of major ice sheets or glaciers.
Claim: Sea level rise could reach six or seven feet by the year 2100. (Justin Gillis, 2016-06-09)
Evidence (2020-05-08): Under RCP 8.5, the likely range of GMSL rise is 0.63–1.32 m, the very likely range is 0.45–1.65 m, and the median is 0.93 m by 2100. By 2300, the likely range is 1.67–5.61 m, the very likely range is 0.88–7.83 m, and the median is 3.29 m (Table 1). [...] A recent structured expert judgment15, focusing on ice sheet contributions to GMSL presented a likely range of 0.8–1.7 m, and a very likely range of 0.6–2.4 m for GMSL rise in 2100 under a high emission scenario that is roughly comparable to RCP 8.5. There are obvious differences between the ranges derived from the structured expert judgment and our expert survey, particularly in the magnitude of the upper tails of the distributions. The structured expert judgment15 provided combined ice sheet sea-level rise contributions, which alone show a very likely range of 0.1–1.8 m by 2100 under the high emission scenario. This potentially suggests a difference between GMSL projections from experts with a primary expertise in ice sheets15, and GMSL projections from the field more broadly, as in our survey, where there was a relatively equal distribution of respondents with primary expertise in statistical or physical process modeling (32%), data collection or processing (35%), and impacts of sea-level rise (30%). From tiered questions, 13% of respondents in our survey identified ice-sheets as their expertise (Supplementary Information). [...] Church, J. A. et al. Sea-level rise by 2100. Science342, 1445–1445 (2013).
Claim: Sea level rise could reach six or seven feet by the year 2100. (Justin Gillis, 2016-06-09)
Evidence (2021-08-09): Gregory Garner, Tim Hermans, Robert Kopp, Aimée Slangen, Tamsin Edwards, Anders Levermann, Sophie Nowicki, Matthew Palmer, Chris Smith, Baylor Fox-Kemper, Helene Hewitt, Cunde Xiao, Guðfinna Aðalgeirsdóttir, Sybren Drijfhout, Nicholas Golledge, Mark Hemer, Gerhard Krinner, Alan Mix, Dirk Notz, Intan Suci Nurhati, Lucas Ruiz, Jean-Baptiste Sallée, Yongqiang Yu, Lijuan Hua, Tamzin Palmer, Brodie Pearson Garner, G. G., T. Hermans, R. E. Kopp, A. B. A. Slangen, T. L. Edwards, A. Levermann, S. Nowikci, M. D. Palmer, C. Smith, B. Fox-Kemper, H. T. Hewitt, C. Xiao, G. Aðalgeirsdóttir, S. S. Drijfhout, T. L. Edwards, N. R. Golledge, M. Hemer, G. Krinner, A. Mix, D. Notz, S. Nowicki, I. S. Nurhati, L. Ruiz, J-B. Sallée, Y. Yu, L. Hua, T. Palmer, B. Pearson, 2021. IPCC AR6 Sea Level Projections. Version 20210809. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5914709. - The Sixth Assessment Report - NASA Sea Level Projection Tool - Rutgers-ESSP/IPCC-AR6-Sea-Level-Projections
Claim: Sea level rise could reach six or seven feet by the year 2100. (Justin Gillis, 2016-06-09)
Evidence (2017-08-10): Sea level is a measure of the average height of the surface of the sea. Like land, the surface of the ocean is not flat or uniform. But unlike land – for the most part – it can change in short order. [...] Global sea level has been rising over the past century, and we’ve seen the rate increase in recent decades. Global tidal records from 1900 to 1990 show an estimated 4- to 5-inch rise in global mean sea level. Then, in the 25 years from 1990 to 2015, this global tide gauge network showed global sea level rising 3 inches, agreeing with measures by satellite altimeters taken since 1992. Currently, sea level is rising about one-eighth of an inch per year but is projected to rise in the future. By 2100, sea levels may rise another 1 to 8 feet – that’s feet, not inches. [...] Global sea level is rising from two primary causes: the expansion of ocean water as it warms; and increased melting of land-based ice, like glaciers and ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica and other "upland" areas.
Claim: Sea level rise could reach six or seven feet by the year 2100. (Justin Gillis, 2016-06-09)
Evidence (2016-09-06): Sea level could rise by as much as 1 or 2 meters (3.3-6.6 feet) by the year 2100 Continuing greenhouse gas emissions growth could result in a sea level rise of 0.5 meters (20 inches) to as much as 1 or 2 meters (3.3-6.6 feet) by the year 2100. [...] Yes, I couldn’t agree more. I actually wrote a paper regarding a survey of sea-level scientists. The concluding statement was that most experts estimate a larger sea-level rise by AD 2100 than the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report AR5 projects:
Claim: Sea level rise could reach six or seven feet by the year 2100. (Justin Gillis, 2016-06-09)
Evidence (2023-08-22): Every four or five years, NOAA leads an interagency task force that reviews the latest research on sea level rise and issues a report on likely— and ‘unlikely but plausible’—amounts future sea level rise for different greenhouse gas and global warming pathways. In the 2022 report, the task force concluded that even on the pathway with the lowest possible greenhouse gas emissions and warming (1.5 degrees C), global mean sea level would rise at least 0.3 meters (1 foot) above 2000 levels by 2100. On a pathway with very high rates of emissions that trigger rapid ice sheet collapse, sea level could be as much as 2 meters (6.6 feet) higher in 2100 than it was in 2000. [...] Projections for U.S. sea level rise for the end of the century and beyond depend on which greenhouse gas pathway we follow and how the major ice sheets respond to this ocean and atmospheric warming. If we are able to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions, U.S. sea level in 2100 is projected to be around 0.6 meters (2 feet) higher on average than it was in 2000. But on a pathway with high greenhouse gas emissions and rapid ice sheet collapse, models project that average sea level rise for the contiguous United States could be 2.2 meters (7.2 feet) by 2100 and 3.9 meters (13 feet) by 2150.
Claim: Sea level rise could reach six or seven feet by the year 2100. (Justin Gillis, 2016-06-09)
Evidence (2024-10-08): Since completion of the 2017 Report, peer-reviewed scientific literature as well as government and multinational reports increasingly point to 3 to 4 feet of sea level rise by 2100 as a mid-range, rather than high-end, scenario for Hawaiʻi. These increasing projections of sea level rise are based on greenhouse gas emissions, which continue to increase, and observations of accelerating ice mass loss to the oceans, particularly from Greenland and West Antarctica. The projections are often provided to 2100, though sea level is committed to rise for centuries to millennia according to the 2021 IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (IPCC 2021). [...] - There is a 50% probability of exceeding 1.0 m (3.3 ft) and 10% probability of exceeding 2.0 m (6.6 ft) of global sea level rise by 2100 when considering a high GHG emissions scenario that leads to an average global temperature increase of 5°C plus the impact of earlier and faster ice sheet losses from Antarctica and Greenland. While physically plausible, the likelihood of widespread ice sheet collapse to that extent within this century is currently unknown and is an active area of ongoing observation and research. [...] - Sea level will rise between 1.3 and 8.0 feet by 2100.