copenlu/druid huggingface dataset:
Claim: Best available data show sea-level rise is not accelerating. Local and regional sea levels continue to exhibit typical natural variability—in some places rising and in others falling. (Craig Idso, Robert Carter, S. Fred Singer, 2017-08-05)
Evidence (2024-06-12): Earth’s sea level is rising as humanity warms the atmosphere and oceans by burning fossil fuels. Average sea level has risen by more than 20 centimeters (about 8 inches) since 1900, and it keeps rising faster, says Brent Minchew, an MIT geophysicist who studies glaciers and oceans. [...] Farther in the future, the differences between the best- and worst-case scenarios grow even starker. Unlike world temperatures, sea level rise responds slowly to climate change, and we can confidently expect that the oceans will keep rising long after we stop all our climate pollution. By the year 2300, even with strong action to control climate change this century, we could plausibly see a meter or more of sea level rise; in the worst case, the seas could rise a staggering 10 meters (33 feet) or more. Over the centuries, the chances of Antarctic ice sheets collapsing also rise. "On a long enough timeline, we lose virtually all ice on Earth," Minchew says. "Over geological timescales, it’s rare to have ice sheets at the poles."
Claim: Best available data show sea-level rise is not accelerating. Local and regional sea levels continue to exhibit typical natural variability—in some places rising and in others falling. (Craig Idso, Robert Carter, S. Fred Singer, 2017-08-05)
Evidence (2023-07-14): As a consequence of rising temperatures leading to thermal expansion of oceans, loss of ice sheets and glaciers, and variations in land water storage1, global mean sea-level (GMSL) has risen by 20 cm from 1901 to 20182. GMSL is projected to increase faster in the future3, possibly exceeding a 2 m rise in 21004. A growing body of literature indicates that sea-level rise (SLR) threatens low-lying coastal and estuarine zones worldwide5, which may have nearly 1 billion inhabitants by 20306, through a range of hazards and impacts including more frequent and/or intense coastal flooding7,8,9,10, degradation/loss of habitats/ecosystems11,12 including islands13,14 and coral reefs15, coastal erosion and shoreline changes16,17, and salinisation of surface water and groundwater18,19,20. These hazards and impacts, in turn, can damage economic assets, urban and coastal infrastructure, and coastal tourism21,22,23,24,25, influence and induce human migration26,27, impact the livelihoods and safety of vulnerable coastal populations28,29, threaten heritage sites30,31, and even jeopardise renewable energy plans32,33. [...] Gregory, J. M. et al. Concepts and Terminology for Sea Level: Mean, Variability and Change, Both Local and Global. Surveys Geophys.40, 1251–1289 (2019).
Claim: Best available data show sea-level rise is not accelerating. Local and regional sea levels continue to exhibit typical natural variability—in some places rising and in others falling. (Craig Idso, Robert Carter, S. Fred Singer, 2017-08-05)
Evidence (2022-09-19): Scientists have been tracking sea level along coastlines using tidal gauges for more than a century. And since the 1990s, satellite measurements have given them an even more complete view of sea level over the global ocean. Those data unequivocally show a rise in sea level. Averaged over the entire ocean, the increases are small—just three millimeters per year, or about the width of two grains of rice laid side by side. But those millimeters add up, with sea level rising more than seven centimeters (a little more than three inches) in just 25 years. What’s more, Piecuch says, "it’s not just rising, it’s accelerating. It’s rising faster every year." [...] Kopp, R.E. et al. 2016. Temperature-driven global sea-level variability in the Common Era. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1517056113.
Claim: Best available data show sea-level rise is not accelerating. Local and regional sea levels continue to exhibit typical natural variability—in some places rising and in others falling. (Craig Idso, Robert Carter, S. Fred Singer, 2017-08-05)
Evidence (2021-02-12): Regional sea-level rise and contributions from natural variability Regional sea level exhibits considerably more natural variability than the GMSL (Fig. 3)19, implying the need to consider longer analysis periods. We focus on evaluating the projections of coastal sea level as recorded by tide gauges and used in coastal management (rather than offshore observations from satellites), after minimising the natural variability by using the MVLR analysis (Methods Eqs. 3, 4). We also applied the MVLR analysis to the regional ocean-reanalysis data (Ocean ReAnalysis System 5, ORAS5) over the same period as tide-gauge observations (1970–2018) to provide large-scale regional patterns. The MVLR analysis was not applied to regional satellite altimeter observations because the 26-year study period is still quite short to reasonably separate the regional sea-level trends and accelerations from low-frequency decadal variability (Methods; Supplementary Fig. 3).
Claim: Best available data show sea-level rise is not accelerating. Local and regional sea levels continue to exhibit typical natural variability—in some places rising and in others falling. (Craig Idso, Robert Carter, S. Fred Singer, 2017-08-05)
Evidence (2019-10-29): Similar content being viewed by others [...] Driven by climate change, global mean sea level rose 11–16 cm in the twentieth century1,2. Even with sharp, immediate cuts to carbon emissions, it could rise another 0.5 m this century3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12. Under higher emissions scenarios, twenty-first century rise may approach or in the extremes exceed 2 m in the case of early-onset Antarctic ice sheet instability4,8. Translating sea-level projections into potential exposure of population is critical for coastal planning and for assessing the benefits of climate mitigation, as well as the costs of failure to act. [...] Jackson, L. P. & Jevrejeva, S. A probabilistic approach to 21st century regional sea-level projections using RCP and High-end scenarios. Glob. Planet. Change146, 179–189 (2016).
Claim: Best available data show sea-level rise is not accelerating. Local and regional sea levels continue to exhibit typical natural variability—in some places rising and in others falling. (Craig Idso, Robert Carter, S. Fred Singer, 2017-08-05)
Evidence (2021-11-04): Long-term changes in global mean sea level (GMSL) are predominantly driven by three processes: Thermal expansion of ocean water as it absorbs heat, the addition of fresh water to the ocean from the melting of glaciers and ice sheets, and land water storage. As the atmosphere warms, much of its heat gets absorbed by the ocean, causing the water to expand. More than 90% of warming over the past 50 years has occurred in the ocean. Along with this thermal expansion, land-based glaciers and ice sheets are melting. Since 2002, Greenland is losing about 277 gigatonnes (Gt) of ice per year, based on measurements acquired by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and GRACE Follow-On (GRACE-FO) missions, and Antarctica losing approximately 149 Gt/year. To put this into perspective, one Gt is equivalent to one billion metric tons, 2.2 trillion pounds, or 10,000 fully-loaded U.S. aircraft carriers. New York's Central Park is 4 kilometers long and 0.8 kilometers wide. A gigatonne of ice placed in this equivalent area would extend 341 meters (1,119 feet) high. [...] Locally and regionally, sea level change can be significantly different from the global average due to factors such as natural and human-induced subsidence (sinking or settling of the ground), ocean currents, and rebound from the compressive weight of Ice Age glaciers. [...] Our current scientific understanding of sea level change is unprecedented due to long-term sea level records and almost 30 years of satellite altimetry. Data available without restriction through NASA's Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS) further support this understanding.
Claim: Best available data show sea-level rise is not accelerating. Local and regional sea levels continue to exhibit typical natural variability—in some places rising and in others falling. (Craig Idso, Robert Carter, S. Fred Singer, 2017-08-05)
Evidence (2024-09-20): Despite this clear upward trend, global mean sea level does not increase in a perfectly linear fashion. It exhibits temporary ups and downs due to various natural phenomena and seasonal variations. One that is very noticeable is an annual cycle that results from changes that happen in our climate over the course of a year. In each hemisphere the oceans warm and expand in summer, and cool and contract in the winter. Sea levels in each hemisphere are higher in summer and early autumn, and lower in winter and early spring. In addition, there is an increase of water stored on land in the Northern Hemisphere winter and thus less in the ocean, leading to a lower global average sea level at this time of year. While these annual changes happen at different times of the year in each hemisphere, they average together to a noticeable shift in globally averaged sea level over the course of the year. In the global average, this shift is around 1 inch (2 cm) on average, although the annual cycle can be much larger in local sea levels.
Claim: Best available data show sea-level rise is not accelerating. Local and regional sea levels continue to exhibit typical natural variability—in some places rising and in others falling. (Craig Idso, Robert Carter, S. Fred Singer, 2017-08-05)
Evidence (2020-05-07): Which areas of the world will be most affected by sea-level rise over the next century, and after that? Some of the most powerful effects will be seen on flatter coastal land abutting the shallows of large water bodies. If these areas also are prone to landfall by tropical cyclones, the effects will be further intensified. Among the hardest hit will be tropical and sub-tropical river deltas – broad fans of sediment and waterways where rivers meet the sea. Because such deltas often are the sites of port cities, large human populations will be exposed to significantly higher risk. Hot spots include the U.S. East Coast and Gulf Coast, Asia, and islands. [...] Beyond 2100, the consequences of sea-level rise could well force an inland retreat by human civilization to higher elevations. By 2150, storm surges likely will be twice as high, or higher, than they are today. And in general, after 2100, rising sea levels in the 3 to 6.5-foot range (1 to 2 meters) will cause widespread damage to coastal areas. Strategic adaptation will help at first – raising coastal structures and building extensive seawalls. But as the problem worsens, the continuing impact to society will be greater and the cost of responding will increase.
Claim: Best available data show sea-level rise is not accelerating. Local and regional sea levels continue to exhibit typical natural variability—in some places rising and in others falling. (Craig Idso, Robert Carter, S. Fred Singer, 2017-08-05)
Evidence (2017-05-08): Global sea level rise is accelerating, despite Heartland Institute report’s claims otherwise [...] This statement is false. A wide range of direct measurements (i.e. tidal gauges) and indirect measurements (i.e., gravity monitoring satellites) show that the rate of sea level rise has increased (i.e., accelerated) in recent years*. [...] Global average sea level is unambiguously rising. Regions where sea level is falling are regions where local sea level signals are large enough to counteract the global trend—for example, in Baffin Bay and parts of Scandinavia, where continued residual land uplift is continuing, associated with the unweighting of the land from loss of last glacial maximum ice sheets.
Claim: Best available data show sea-level rise is not accelerating. Local and regional sea levels continue to exhibit typical natural variability—in some places rising and in others falling. (Craig Idso, Robert Carter, S. Fred Singer, 2017-08-05)
Evidence (2023-05-11): Although sea level is rising globally, in some places it is rising more quickly than others, and in some places, sea level is even falling. This type of local- and regional-scale sea level change is what is most important when talking about the impacts of sea level on people and communities and how to plan for and manage those impacts. [...] Alaska is a perfect demonstration of variation in regional sea level change: in some places, sea level is rising, and in others it is falling. Along the southern coast of Alaska, the land is rising two-to-four-times faster than the sea thanks to the region's geology (featuring a collision of tectonic plates and glacial rebound, both causing the land to rise). But along the Bering Sea and the Arctic Ocean, other impacts from climate change are already affecting Alaskan communities in the form of increased storm surges, thawing permafrost, saltwater intrusion and coastal erosion. Furthermore, sea ice is now less protective of the coast because so much of it has melted. The result is that storms are stronger, flooding is more frequent, and coastlines are eroding along parts of Alaska's coast.
Claim: Best available data show sea-level rise is not accelerating. Local and regional sea levels continue to exhibit typical natural variability—in some places rising and in others falling. (Craig Idso, Robert Carter, S. Fred Singer, 2017-08-05)
Evidence (2024-01-01): Regions see all regions Carnegie Endowment for International Peace [...] Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center
Claim: Best available data show sea-level rise is not accelerating. Local and regional sea levels continue to exhibit typical natural variability—in some places rising and in others falling. (Craig Idso, Robert Carter, S. Fred Singer, 2017-08-05)
Evidence (2014-04-23): Regional changes in sea level rise and coastal flooding are not evenly distributed across the United States; ocean circulation changes, sinking land, and Antarctic ice melt will result in greater-than-average sea level rise for the Northeast and western Gulf of Mexico under lower scenarios and most of the U.S. coastline other than Alaska under higher scenarios. Since the 1960s, sea level rise has already increased the frequency of high tide flooding by a factor of 5 to 10 for several U.S. coastal communities. The frequency, depth, and extent of tidal flooding are expected to continue to increase in the future, as is the more severe flooding associated with coastal storms, such as hurricanes and nor’easters.
Claim: Best available data show sea-level rise is not accelerating. Local and regional sea levels continue to exhibit typical natural variability—in some places rising and in others falling. (Craig Idso, Robert Carter, S. Fred Singer, 2017-08-05)
Evidence (2021-08-05): - Ablain, M.; Meyssignac, B.; Zawadzki, L.; Jugier, R.; Ribes, A.; Spada, G.; Benveniste, J.; Cazenave, A.; Picot, N. Uncertainty in satellite estimates of global mean sea-level changes, trend and acceleration. Earth Syst. Sci. Data 2019, 11, 1189–1202. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version] [...] - Sweet, W.V.; Kopp, R.E.; Weaver, C.P.; Obeysekera, J.; Horton, R.M.; Thieler, E.R.; Zervas, C. Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States. 2017. Available online: https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/18399 (accessed on 1 August 2021). [...] - Hunter, J.R.; Church, J.A.; White, N.J.; Zhang, X. Towards a global regionally varying allowance for sea-level rise. Ocean Eng. 2013, 71, 17–27. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
Claim: Best available data show sea-level rise is not accelerating. Local and regional sea levels continue to exhibit typical natural variability—in some places rising and in others falling. (Craig Idso, Robert Carter, S. Fred Singer, 2017-08-05)
Evidence (2019-05-06): "The overwhelming evidence of the IPBES Global Assessment, from a wide range of different fields of knowledge, presents an ominous picture," said IPBES Chair, Sir Robert Watson. "The health of ecosystems on which we and all other species depend is deteriorating more rapidly than ever. We are eroding the very foundations of our economies, livelihoods, food security, health and quality of life worldwide." [...] Based on the systematic review of about 15,000 scientific and government sources, the Report also draws (for the first time ever at this scale) on indigenous and local knowledge, particularly addressing issues relevant to Indigenous Peoples and Local Communities. [...] – Jose Graziano da Silva, Director-General, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Claim: Best available data show sea-level rise is not accelerating. Local and regional sea levels continue to exhibit typical natural variability—in some places rising and in others falling. (Craig Idso, Robert Carter, S. Fred Singer, 2017-08-05)
Evidence (2023-07-14): - Climate change is making certain regions drier - For example, the Southwestern United States has already seen a decrease in annual precipitation since the beginning of the 20th century, and that trend is expected to continue. [...] Nationwide, conditions reached their peak in December 2020, when the greatest extent of land since 2012 was under extreme drought conditions. In the West, drought has continued and intensified in 2021, and has been exacerbated in the Pacific Northwest by record heat. [...] The Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation portal helps communities understand and plan for their climate risks today and in the future, including a real-time map of wildfire, drought, flooding, and extreme heat across the United States.
Claim: Best available data show sea-level rise is not accelerating. Local and regional sea levels continue to exhibit typical natural variability—in some places rising and in others falling. (Craig Idso, Robert Carter, S. Fred Singer, 2017-08-05)
Evidence (2017-01-01): For example, global average sea level has risen by about 7–8 inches since 1900, with almost half (about 3 inches) of that rise occurring since 1993. Human-caused climate change has made a substantial contribution to this rise since 1900, contributing to a rate of rise that is greater than during any preceding century in at least 2,800 years. Global sea level rise has already affected the United States; the incidence of daily tidal flooding is accelerating in more than 25 Atlantic and Gulf Coast cities. [...] Natural variability, including El Niño events and other recurring patterns of ocean–atmosphere interactions, impact temperature and precipitation, especially regionally, over timescales of months to years. The global influence of natural variability, however, is limited to a small fraction of observed climate trends over decades. (Very high confidence) (Ch. 1) [...] Global and Regional Sea Level Rise
Claim: Best available data show sea-level rise is not accelerating. Local and regional sea levels continue to exhibit typical natural variability—in some places rising and in others falling. (Craig Idso, Robert Carter, S. Fred Singer, 2017-08-05)
Evidence (2021-08-17): One of the expected implications of anthropogenic climate change would be an acceleration in sea level rise over time. So far, global mean sea level rise seems to have accelerated over the 20th century (Nerem et al., 2018; Oppenheimer et al., 2019; Dangendorf et al., 2019), although this is still a topic of ongoing debate (Kleinherenbrink et al., 2019; Veng and Andersen, 2020). Robust detection of acceleration is hampered to some extent by changes in the measurement system. While most of the data over much of the 20th century originate from coastal tide gauges mostly in the Northern Hemisphere, satellite altimetry has provided a nearly global figure mostly from the open ocean since 1991. Differences in estimates of satellite intra-mission biases also have substantial effects on estimated acceleration rates (Kleinherenbrink et al., 2019). As tide gauges in the Baltic Sea provide some of the longest, best quality controlled, and more homogeneous records, they may provide some support in assessing acceleration. From a statistical analysis of long Baltic sea level records, Hünicke and Zorita (2016) could indeed detect an acceleration in sea level rise.
Claim: Best available data show sea-level rise is not accelerating. Local and regional sea levels continue to exhibit typical natural variability—in some places rising and in others falling. (Craig Idso, Robert Carter, S. Fred Singer, 2017-08-05)
Evidence (2020-04-01): In the 200-plus years since the industrial revolution began, the concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere has increased due to human actions. During this time, the pH of surface ocean waters has fallen by 0.1 pH units. This might not sound like much, but the pH scale is logarithmic, so this change represents approximately a 30 percent increase in acidity. [...] Because of human-driven increased levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, there is more CO2 dissolving into the ocean. The ocean’s average pH is now around 8.1 offsite link, which is basic (or alkaline), but as the ocean continues to absorb more CO2, the pH decreases and the ocean becomes more acidic. [...] Estimates of future carbon dioxide levels, based on business-as-usual emission scenarios, indicate that by the end of this century the surface waters of the ocean could have a pH around 7.8 The last time the ocean pH was this low was during the middle Miocene, 14-17 million years ago. The Earth was several degrees warmer and a major extinction event was occurring.
Claim: Best available data show sea-level rise is not accelerating. Local and regional sea levels continue to exhibit typical natural variability—in some places rising and in others falling. (Craig Idso, Robert Carter, S. Fred Singer, 2017-08-05)
Evidence (2017-02-09): Natural variability can not explain modern global warming, as Heartland Institute report claims [...] SOURCE: Craig Idso, Robert Carter, S. Fred Singer, Heartland Institute [...] Forward projections of solar cyclicity imply the next few decades may be marked by global cooling rather than warming, despite continuing CO2 emissions.
Claim: Best available data show sea-level rise is not accelerating. Local and regional sea levels continue to exhibit typical natural variability—in some places rising and in others falling. (Craig Idso, Robert Carter, S. Fred Singer, 2017-08-05)
Evidence (2024-03-29): Geological records of Earth's history show that sea levels have risen and fallen during Earth's periods of warming and cooling. During past warming periods millions of years ago when global temperatures were around 1.5-3.6°C above preindustrial levels, global average sea levels could have been as much as 100 feet higher than they are today. Global average sea levels have risen 8-9 inches since 1880, a third of that rise occurring in the last 25 years. The IPCC is "virtually certain" that SLR will continue through the 21st century and for centuries to come due to continued ocean warming and ice sheet melt. Global average sea levels are predicted to rise 2-3 meters in the 21st century, even if drastic GHG reductions are successful in limiting global warming to 2°C.
Claim: Best available data show sea-level rise is not accelerating. Local and regional sea levels continue to exhibit typical natural variability—in some places rising and in others falling. (Craig Idso, Robert Carter, S. Fred Singer, 2017-08-05)
Evidence (2021-01-15): New satellite measurements show sea level rise is accelerating, as CNN accurately reports in CNN, by Brandon Miller — 15 Feb 2018 [...] Global data contradict claim of no acceleration in sea level rise [...] Sea level rise is accelerating, and with it the risk associated with coastal storm surge, contrary to claim in Forbes