copenlu/druid huggingface dataset:
Claim: According to polling, most people planning to cast a first preference vote for the UUP in May’s Assembly election will switch their vote to nationalists before they provide a transfer to other unionist parties. (Unionist Voice, 2022-04-04)
Evidence (2024-10-09): Who’s ahead in all? [...] ESTIMATE 95% OF POLLS PROJECTED TO FALL IN THIS RANGE Polling averages are adjusted based on state and national polls, which means candidates’ averages can shift even if no new polls have been added to this page. Read more about the methodology.
Claim: According to polling, most people planning to cast a first preference vote for the UUP in May’s Assembly election will switch their vote to nationalists before they provide a transfer to other unionist parties. (Unionist Voice, 2022-04-04)
Evidence (2023-03-24): Explore data on turnout rates, representation, and methods of voting. [...] Read more about how the electoral college works. [...] More on elections and voting from USAFacts
Claim: According to polling, most people planning to cast a first preference vote for the UUP in May’s Assembly election will switch their vote to nationalists before they provide a transfer to other unionist parties. (Unionist Voice, 2022-04-04)
Evidence (2024-04-30): Fifty years ago, not long before Northern Ireland’s first power-sharing executive took office, Conservative prime minister Edward Heath apparently told Ulster Unionist leader Brian Faulkner that power-sharing with Irish nationalists was the price that his party must pay for maintaining the union. Faced with an IRA insurgency and an Irish Government incapable of advancing any significant political, cultural or societal change to facilitate peaceful coexistence north of the border, very few of Faulkner’s senior colleagues invested political capital in the venture. The public were more sanguine about the coalition government’s prospects however, and Faulkner’s loyalist opponents were forced to resort to unconstitutional action to bring it down. Twenty-five years later, another unionist leader succeeded where Faulkner had failed. David Trimble convinced enough of his senior colleagues that power-sharing with nationalists was the only way that his community could secure its long-term future within the UK. [...] If Irish nationalists win a referendum on Northern Ireland’s constitutional future due to the failure of these institutions, it will provide the weakest basis imaginable for a shared future between the peoples of this island, for power-sharing is the price that they must pay for reunification—its failure in the north will ultimately lead to its failure on an all-island basis.
Claim: According to polling, most people planning to cast a first preference vote for the UUP in May’s Assembly election will switch their vote to nationalists before they provide a transfer to other unionist parties. (Unionist Voice, 2022-04-04)
Evidence (2023-03-28): And as we move to commemorate 25 years of the Good Friday Agreement this April, not many in 1998 could have anticipated the modal shifts in NI’s political landscape, whether it be the top-level change from the SDLP and UUP to SF and the DUP, or the bottom upsurge in those who vote neither Nationalist or Unionist. To map out recent changes in political support for NI’s parties, Table 3 looks at first preference votes in the last 2 local elections, as well as two recent polls. In summary, the "big 5 parties" which made up the benches of a power-sharing government in Stormont are now giving way to a three-party consolidation with support growing for SF, the DUP and Alliance. While looking at first preference votes cannot reflect the complexities of STV vote transfers, or variables such as the status of local independents and the number of candidates fielded in districts, it can depict the wider trends in party support.
Claim: According to polling, most people planning to cast a first preference vote for the UUP in May’s Assembly election will switch their vote to nationalists before they provide a transfer to other unionist parties. (Unionist Voice, 2022-04-04)
Evidence (2016-10-12): Table 2 Nationalist Share of Vote (%), Assembly elections, 1998 – 2016 [...] In summary, of the parties elected, the UUP received most transferred votes (25%), followed by the DUP (22%), Sinn Féin (14%), SDLP (13%), Alliance (11%), Green Party (4%), TUV (3%) and People Before Profit Alliance (1%). [...] In contrast, Alliance, UUP, and the SDLP received the lion’s share of transfers from other parties (71%, 76% and 79% respectively). The DUP received 59% of its transfers from other parties.
Claim: According to polling, most people planning to cast a first preference vote for the UUP in May’s Assembly election will switch their vote to nationalists before they provide a transfer to other unionist parties. (Unionist Voice, 2022-04-04)
Evidence (2023-12-15): To provide a more "liberal" alternative to unionist voters, the UUP has changed its electoral strategy under Doug Beattie’s leadership. As confirmed by the latest elections, many unionist voters now feel politically homeless and the UUP has tried to reach out to those more liberal voters who might be tempted to vote for Alliance for example. The UUP has been campaigning for an "inclusive unionism" as opposed to an "inward-looking", "angry" unionism as stated by Doug Beattie who was appointed leader of the party in May 2021. He wrote in an article on Eamon Mallie’s blog: [...] These vote transfers might also call into question the definition of unionism put forward by these parties. Indeed, these unionist parties, when asked to give arguments in favour of the Union, tend to give the same types of ideas, although adopting slightly different positions.
Claim: According to polling, most people planning to cast a first preference vote for the UUP in May’s Assembly election will switch their vote to nationalists before they provide a transfer to other unionist parties. (Unionist Voice, 2022-04-04)
Evidence (2022-04-30): Tagged Alliance Party, Assembly Election 2022, DUP, Green Party, Mid Ulster, SDLP, Sinn Féin, Slugger O'Toole, Stefan Taylor, TUV, UUP 4 Comments [...] Tagged Alan Chambers, Alex Easton, Alliance Party, Andrew Muir, Assembly Election 2022, Bangor, Chris Carter, Connie Egan, Deirdre Vaughan, Doug Beattie, DUP, Green Party, Holywood, James Kilfedder, Jennifer Gilmour, John Gordon, Mathew Robinson, Naomi McBurney, Rachel Woods, Ray McKimm, SDLP, Sinn Féin, Sylvia Hermon, Therese McCartney, TUV, UUP, Westminster Election 4 Comments [...] Tagged Alliance Party, Assembly Election 2022, Ben King, Conor Houston, DUP, Green Party, Harry Hunter, Kellie Armatrong, Maurice Macartney, MIchelle McIlveen, Mike Nesbitt, Nick Mathieson, Peter Weir, Philip Smith, Róisié McGivern, SDLP, Sinn Féin, Stephen Cooper, Strangford, TUV, UUP 6 Comments
Claim: According to polling, most people planning to cast a first preference vote for the UUP in May’s Assembly election will switch their vote to nationalists before they provide a transfer to other unionist parties. (Unionist Voice, 2022-04-04)
Evidence (2017-03-03): One notable departure from the conventional trajectory of Northern Ireland elections was the comments by the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) leader Mike Nesbitt on 13 February. In an interview on the BBC, Mr. Nesbitt announced he would be transferring his preference vote to the nationalist SDLP once he had voted for all UUP candidates.[1] While Nesbitt stopped short of calling on all UUP supporters to follow his lead, senior party figures criticised his call. Mr. Nesbitt also earned a strong rebuke from first minister and DUP leader Arlene Foster who said: "It is dangerous to advocate supporting candidates who are Pro-United Ireland above preferences for fellow unionists. The greater the number of nationalist MLAs elected the stronger the push will be for a Border Poll."[2] [...] [1] See: http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-38960977 [2] See: http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland-assembly-election/dup-leader-claims-it-is-dangerous-to-transfer-votes-to-nationalists-35460405.html [3] We do not assume that the outcome would have been the same under a system where only the first preferences taken into account. Rather, our focus is on what happens to transfers.
Claim: According to polling, most people planning to cast a first preference vote for the UUP in May’s Assembly election will switch their vote to nationalists before they provide a transfer to other unionist parties. (Unionist Voice, 2022-04-04)
Evidence (2022-05-07): The party topped the first-preference vote with 29%, which will position its deputy leader, Michelle O’Neill, to become the region’s first minister, the first nationalist to hold the position in a historic turnaround and a severe blow to unionism. With transfer votes still being counted on Friday night, it was clear the Democratic Unionist party (DUP) had dramatically lost its pre-eminence by slumping to 21.3% in the first preference vote. "A disaster for the DUP," tweeted Tim Cairns, a former special adviser to the party. [...] Unionists sought comfort in the fact that overall support for unionist parties marginally outweighed support for nationalist parties. Opinion polls show solid support for Northern Ireland remaining in the UK, but Sinn Féin hope to build momentum towards a referendum on Irish unity, a goal boosted by the party’s surging popularity in the Republic of Ireland, where, under McDonald, it leads the opposition in the Dublin parliament.
Claim: According to polling, most people planning to cast a first preference vote for the UUP in May’s Assembly election will switch their vote to nationalists before they provide a transfer to other unionist parties. (Unionist Voice, 2022-04-04)
Evidence (2024-10-09): Democratic Unionist Party - seats 25 - change since 2017 -3 - first preference votes 184,002 - share of 1st preference votes 21.3% [...] Ulster Unionist Party - seats 9 - change since 2017 -1 - first preference votes 96,390 - share of 1st preference votes 11.2% [...] - change in 1st preferences votes -1.0%
Claim: According to polling, most people planning to cast a first preference vote for the UUP in May’s Assembly election will switch their vote to nationalists before they provide a transfer to other unionist parties. (Unionist Voice, 2022-04-04)
Evidence (2024-09-25): Opinion polls [edit]* (U): Unionist, (N): Nationalist, (O): Other [...] The DUP's vote share dropped almost 7% and lost three seats; despite this, unionists won two more seats than nationalists—37 seats to 35—and a marginally higher share of the vote.[3] This being said, socialist party People Before Profit—who returned one candidate to the Assembly—favour a united socialist Ireland, though they officially designated themselves as Socialist, rather than Nationalist or Unionist, on the electoral register. Indeed, both nationalist parties (4) and unionist parties (3) lost seats overall to 'Others', who gained 7 seats for their highest ever proportion of seats in the assembly, 18 seats, or 20% of those available, despite both Green candidates losing their seat. Unionist parties lost greater combined vote share, losing just over 2.5% of the total vote, whereas nationalist parties (including newcomers Aontú) lost only around 0.5% of vote share combined. [...] - ^ a b c d e f g h i Andrews, Chris (6 May 2022). "NI election results 2022: Sinn Féin tops first preference vote in NI election". BBC. Archived from the original on 6 May 2022.
Claim: According to polling, most people planning to cast a first preference vote for the UUP in May’s Assembly election will switch their vote to nationalists before they provide a transfer to other unionist parties. (Unionist Voice, 2022-04-04)
Evidence (2024-09-20): But as we have seen in the past branding is a tricky business and you can (as the UUP found under the UCU-NF coalition with the Tories in 2010) that just swapping names above the shop can lead to terminal confusion in your traditional voter base. [...] There are lessons in there not simple for the DUP’s new leadership and members but for most parties in Northern Ireland and indeed, as I made clear yesterday, across the UK, the US and mainland Europe, suffering from a hollowing of party systems. [...] This is definitely the case with the DUP, whose clever wheeze of getting the whole electorate to focus to the exclusion of all else on what is now the quinquennial contest over who is going to be First Minister (which has no more power than a DFM).
Claim: According to polling, most people planning to cast a first preference vote for the UUP in May’s Assembly election will switch their vote to nationalists before they provide a transfer to other unionist parties. (Unionist Voice, 2022-04-04)
Evidence (2022-02-16): The political landscape in Northern Ireland leading up to the 1998 Agreement consisted of two key parties on the Catholic side — the republican Sinn Fein (the political wing of the IRA) and the nationalist Social Democratic and Labour Party18 — and two on the unionist side — the Ulster Unionist Party and the Democratic Unionist Party19 — along with smaller loyalist parties associated with Protestant paramilitaries,20 and one non-sectarian party, the Alliance Party. [...] The second leading party on the unionist side was the DUP, formed in the 1970s. Led by the fiery Presbyterian minister, Reverend Ian Paisley, the DUP was even more rigid in rejecting any accommodation with either the nationalists in Northern Ireland (especially through power sharing) or with the Irish government in the South. The DUP largely boycotted the peace negotiations, in part because it insisted on a complete and credible renunciation of violence and prior decommissioning before sitting down with any of the parties linked to paramilitaries (republican or loyalist). Ironically, following the Agreement, the longest period of stable devolved government in Northern Ireland came during a time when the DUP shared power with Sinn Fein (2010–17).41 The other key parties on the Protestant/unionist side were those associated with the loyalist paramilitaries. They were, in many respects, the counterparts of Sinn Fein/the IRA. These included the Progressive Unionist Party, headed by David Ervine and associated with the paramilitary Ulster Volunteer Force, and the Ulster Democratic Party, headed by Gary McMichael and associated with the Ulster Defence Association.
Claim: According to polling, most people planning to cast a first preference vote for the UUP in May’s Assembly election will switch their vote to nationalists before they provide a transfer to other unionist parties. (Unionist Voice, 2022-04-04)
Evidence (2017-02-01): Our second big question is whether Protestant and Catholic voters in 2016 had distinctive preferences. Table 5 shows that distinctiveness in respect of first preferences. The three panels in this table correspond to the three major party ‘blocs’ that dominate Northern Irish politics: unionists in the top panel, nationalists in the bottom panel, and ‘others’ in the middle. As the first column shows, Protestants continue overwhelmingly to give first preferences to unionist parties, with only 2 per cent giving first preferences to nationalist parties. This is reciprocated on the Catholic side, where support for the two main nationalist parties is equally overwhelming, with only 4 per cent giving a first preference to one of the unionist parties. About a fifth of both Catholics and Protestants give their first preference to the political centre^. [...] At the surface level of first preference voting, Protestants continue overwhelmingly to support unionist parties, with only 2 per cent giving first preferences to nationalist parties. This is mirrored on the Catholic side, with only 4 per cent giving a first preference to one of the unionist parties. [...] The 2016 Assembly election in Northern Ireland offers, then, further evidence of the highly polarised structuring of party support in that deeply divided region. Protestant and Catholic voters tend not just to give their first preference votes to nationalist and unionist parties respectively (with some exceptions just mentioned); they also tend to continue these preferences within their own political bloc rather than transferring to the rival bloc.
Claim: According to polling, most people planning to cast a first preference vote for the UUP in May’s Assembly election will switch their vote to nationalists before they provide a transfer to other unionist parties. (Unionist Voice, 2022-04-04)
Evidence (2011-04-20): 3. Take the party with the smallest number of first-preference votes and change each vote for that party by removing the first-preference votes and turning th-preference votes into th-preference votes for each 4. Remove that party from the list of preferences of all other voters. [...] Why might you want to change your first preference if the party you voted for is still in the running? I can think of a few reasons. One is that you might want to vote tactically because of something like the scenario I outlined earlier that can occur under AV: you want to eliminate a party so that the party you actually like can pick up votes from the supporters of that party. Another is that you like backing a winner, and you sense that a candidate has "momentum". The first reason is a legitimate one but an undesirable feature of MR (so it is good that AV lacks it). The second is not, I think, rational in a vote for an MP, though it might be rational if you are voting for a party leader and want a display of unity. [...] Here is a different argument. Suppose there is a constituency with four candidates, representing Labour, the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats, and the British National Party. The first preferences are
Claim: According to polling, most people planning to cast a first preference vote for the UUP in May’s Assembly election will switch their vote to nationalists before they provide a transfer to other unionist parties. (Unionist Voice, 2022-04-04)
Evidence (2017-03-06): The UUP secured 10 seats, losing 6 seats despite largely keeping its vote share the same, while the SDLP retained all of its 12 seats. This now means that the combined seat share of Unionist parties (38 seats) is smaller than that of nationalist parties (39 seats). Meanwhile the Alliance Party, which attempts to sit outside the unionist/nationalist divide, fared well, retaining its 8 seats and increasing its vote share. Significantly, almost 70 per cent of voters supported a party that endorsed ‘remain’ in the Brexit referendum, perhaps signalling a coming headache for Theresa May. [...] This is not to say that voters in Northern Ireland are free-floating and untethered from any ethno-nationalist cleavage (typically, over 90 per cent of Catholics vote for nationalist parties and even more Protestants vote for unionist parties). But today’s Northern Irish voters (especially younger ones) think in terms of capability and competence to promote prosperity and welfare. From this perspective, it appears that the Assembly election was more about bedding-down better functioning Northern Irish institutions than moving closer to all-Ireland ones. [...] The gap between moderate unionism and Sinn Féin still remains vast, and securing this community’s consent will be necessary to move closer to a united Ireland. Indeed, Mike Nesbitt, the leader of the UUP who resigned in the wake of his party’s poor performance, declared he would transfer his vote to the SDLP. This was too radical for many unionist supporters who rounded on him for transferring to any nationalist party, even one without the radical legacy of Sinn Féin.
Claim: More than 700,000 people born in Northern Ireland have an Irish passport. (BBC Northern Ireland, 2021-01-29)
Evidence (2021-01-29): 206,735 in England 8,253 in Wales 36,655 in Scotland
Claim: More than 700,000 people born in Northern Ireland have an Irish passport. (BBC Northern Ireland, 2021-01-29)
Evidence (2022-11-14): Hundreds of people from Northern Ireland, ranging from "determined" nationalists to members of the Orange Order, applied to give up their British citizenship over the last decade. [...] But because people from Northern Ireland are automatically deemed British under the British Nationality Act (1981), many opted to give up their UK citizenship so they could apply to be reunited with family under less-strict EU regulations. [...] Following a lengthy legal challenge by citizenship campaigner Emma DeSouza, the British government announced in May 2020 that all British and Irish citizens born in Northern Ireland would be treated as EU citizens for immigration purposes and could apply to bring a family member over under European law.
Claim: More than 700,000 people born in Northern Ireland have an Irish passport. (BBC Northern Ireland, 2021-01-29)
Evidence (2024-10-01): People born in Northern Ireland have automatic British citizenship on the same basis and with the same provisions as those born elsewhere in the United Kingdom. Despite the Irish Government's withdrawal of its constitutional claim to Northern Ireland in 1999, those born in Northern Ireland are entitled to Irish citizenship, should they so choose. Because of this entitlement most people in Northern Ireland are able to get both a British passport and an Irish Passport. Through an agreement between the Irish Government and Post Office Ltd, post offices in Northern Ireland provide a service where customers can apply for an Irish passport, alongside their service where customers can apply for a British passport. [...] - ^ "Passports Held". Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency. Retrieved 12 August 2024. [...] - ^ "More Irish than UK passports issued in Northern Ireland for first time". The Irish Times. Retrieved 8 September 2024.
Claim: More than 700,000 people born in Northern Ireland have an Irish passport. (BBC Northern Ireland, 2021-01-29)
Evidence (2022-05-02): The number of Irish passports being issued in the North has surpassed their UK counterparts for the first time on record, newly obtained figures reveal. [...] Last month, The Irish Times revealed more than a third of the North’s population currently hold an Irish passport, with at least 660,427 issued between 2012 to February this year – about 35 per cent of the region’s 1.8 million population. [...] Some unionist observers and politicians have suggested the surge in Irish passports being issued in the North was down to an increasing pragmatism since the UK withdrew from the EU.
Claim: More than 700,000 people born in Northern Ireland have an Irish passport. (BBC Northern Ireland, 2021-01-29)
Evidence (2024-09-21): The people of Northern Ireland are all people born in Northern Ireland and having, at the time of their birth, at least one parent who is a British citizen, an Irish citizen or is otherwise entitled to reside in Northern Ireland without any restriction on their period of residence, under the Belfast Agreement. Under the agreement, people of Northern Ireland have the right to identify either as Irish or British, or both, and their entitlement to Irish citizenship and British citizenship is recognised by the Government of Ireland and the Government of the United Kingdom.[2] Most Northern Irish people either identify as Northern Irish, Irish or British, or a combination thereof.[3] [...] - ^ The Good Friday Agreement guarantees the "recognition of the birthright of all the people of Northern Ireland to identify themselves and be accepted as Irish or British, or both, as they may so choose, and accordingly confirm that their right to hold both British and Irish citizenship is accepted by both Governments".