copenlu/druid huggingface dataset:
Claim: Human additions of CO2 are in the margin of error of current measurements and the gradual increase in CO2 is mainly from oceans degassing as the planet slowly emerges from the last ice age. (Cole Ryan, 2020-04-20)
Evidence (2020-05-03): KEY TAKE AWAY: Atmospheric CO2 has increased rapidly as a result of human activities. Although human-caused emissions of CO2 are small relative to natural flows into and out of the atmosphere, the human contribution has caused an imbalance in the global carbon cycle that jeopardizes land and ocean ecosystems. Human activities have dramatically increased atmospheric CO2 levels, causing imbalances in the global carbon cycle, Edited by Nikki Forrester, Climate Review, Apr 20, 2020 [...] Human-induced increases in greenhouse gases are the primary driver of global warming, contrary to claims in CFACT article, Edited by Nikki Forrester, Climate Review, Apr 15, 2020
Claim: Human additions of CO2 are in the margin of error of current measurements and the gradual increase in CO2 is mainly from oceans degassing as the planet slowly emerges from the last ice age. (Cole Ryan, 2020-04-20)
Evidence (2023-09-04): Scientific studies established clear links between human-caused increased in atmospheric CO2 and global warming CLAIM "It’s a good thing that we are putting some more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. The scientific method has not been applied in such a way as to prove that carbon dioxide is causing the Earth to warm." [...] Human activities have dramatically increased atmospheric CO2 levels, causing imbalances in the global carbon cycle
Claim: Human additions of CO2 are in the margin of error of current measurements and the gradual increase in CO2 is mainly from oceans degassing as the planet slowly emerges from the last ice age. (Cole Ryan, 2020-04-20)
Evidence (2019-07-30): The burning of fossil fuels affects the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere. Before the industrial revolution, the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere was about 288 ppm. We have now reached about 414 ppm, so we are on the way to doubling the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere by the end of this century. Scientists say that if CO2 doubles, it could raise the average global temperature of the Earth between two and five degrees Celsius. We are already increasing the amount of energy that bounces back to the Earth. Because of the greenhouse effect, this is causing global warming with its many destructive impacts. Both water vapor and CO2 are responsible for global warming, and once we increase the CO2 in the atmosphere, the oceans warm up, which inevitably triggers an increase in water vapor. But while we have no way to control water vapor, we can control CO2. And because we are increasing the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere by continuing to burn fossil fuels, even in relatively small amounts compared to the entire mass of the atmosphere, we are disturbing the entire heat balance of the planet.
Claim: Human additions of CO2 are in the margin of error of current measurements and the gradual increase in CO2 is mainly from oceans degassing as the planet slowly emerges from the last ice age. (Cole Ryan, 2020-04-20)
Evidence (2024-05-08): ['Global warming is driving polar bears toward extinction', 'The sun has gone into 'lockdown' which could cause freezing weather, earthquakes and famine, say scientists', 'The polar bear population has been growing.', "Ironic' study finds more CO2 has slightly cooled the planet", 'Human additions of CO2 are in the margin of error of current measurements and the gradual increase in CO2 is mainly from oceans degassing as the planet slowly emerges from the last ice age.'] [...] [[{'id': '449467966088806767', 'distance': 7.698919773101807, 'entity': {'text': 'Over the coming 25 or 30 years, scientists say, the climate is likely to gradually warm. However, researchers also say that this phenomenon can be stopped if human emissions are reduced to zero.'}}]] [[{'id': '449467966088806767', 'distance': 16.795665740966797, 'entity': {'text': 'Over the coming 25 or 30 years, scientists say, the climate is likely to gradually warm. However, researchers also say that this phenomenon can be stopped if human emissions are reduced to zero.'}}]]
Claim: Human additions of CO2 are in the margin of error of current measurements and the gradual increase in CO2 is mainly from oceans degassing as the planet slowly emerges from the last ice age. (Cole Ryan, 2020-04-20)
Evidence (2021-04-13): Baggenstos, D. et al., 2019: Earth’s radiative imbalance from the Last Glacial Maximum to the present. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 116(30), 14881–14886, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1905447116. [...] Jiménez-de-la-Cuesta, D. and T. Mauritsen, 2019: Emergent constraints on Earth’s transient and equilibrium response to doubled CO2 from post-1970s global warming. Nature Geoscience, 12(11), 902–905, doi: 10.1038/s41561-019-0463-y. [...] Voss, R. and U. Mikolajewicz, 2001: Long-term climate changes due to increased CO2 concentration in the coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model ECHAM3/LSG. Climate Dynamics, 17(1), 45–60, doi: 10.1007/pl00007925.
Claim: More people are dying now than at the peak of the pandemic; the COVID-19 vaccines are the cause of the excess deaths seen in late 2022 (Antony Newby, 2023-01-13)
Evidence (2023-01-13): Excess deaths in the U.K. remain well below the peaks during the COVID-19 pandemic before the vaccines were widely available. It is difficult to precisely define the causes of the recent rise in deaths, however pressure on health services and delays in treatment due to the pandemic are significant factors. The COVID-19 vaccines have been shown to be very safe, only causing heart inflammation in extremely rare cases.
Claim: More people are dying now than at the peak of the pandemic; the COVID-19 vaccines are the cause of the excess deaths seen in late 2022 (Antony Newby, 2023-01-13)
Evidence (2024-01-08): Three years into the Covid pandemic, hundreds of people are still dying of the disease every day. [...] Covid deaths have leveled out below 600 deaths a day since the omicron wave subsided in early 2022.
Claim: More people are dying now than at the peak of the pandemic; the COVID-19 vaccines are the cause of the excess deaths seen in late 2022 (Antony Newby, 2023-01-13)
Evidence (2020-03-05): We know – based on reports and estimates of excess deaths – that these figures underestimate the total impact of the pandemic on mortality globally. We provide data on excess deaths across the world here:
Claim: More people are dying now than at the peak of the pandemic; the COVID-19 vaccines are the cause of the excess deaths seen in late 2022 (Antony Newby, 2023-01-13)
Evidence (2024-02-20): More than 200,000 people have already died because of COVID in the U.S. in 2022, and President Joe Biden’s administration is bracing for 30,000 to 70,000 more deaths this winter. A bad flu year, in comparison, brings about 50,000 deaths. [...] Being unvaccinated is still a major risk factor for dying from COVID. In August 2022 unvaccinated people died at six times the rate of those who got at least the primary series of the vaccine, according to the CDC. And unvaccinated people age 50 and older were 12 times more likely to die than vaccinated and double-boosted peers. Because a large portion of the U.S. population has at least one COVID shot, the majority of deaths are now among vaccinated people. In July 59 percent of COVID deaths were among the vaccinated, and 39 percent were among people who had one booster or more. That doesn’t mean the vaccines are not working anymore; they are still highly effective at reducing the risks of severe illness and death. But their efficacy wanes over time, and continued boosters need to be combined with other precautions to prevent illness and death. In August, people age 50 and older who were vaccinated and had just one booster were three times more likely to die than people with two or more boosters, according to the CDC.
Claim: More people are dying now than at the peak of the pandemic; the COVID-19 vaccines are the cause of the excess deaths seen in late 2022 (Antony Newby, 2023-01-13)
Evidence (2022-11-12): More people are dying every week than during Covid’s peak years. Last month there were 1,482 more deaths than average each week – known as excess deaths – compared with just 315 two years ago and 1,322 last year. In the week to 21 October (the most recent week of data) ONS figures reveal there were some 1,646 excess deaths alone. As has been reported before, excess deaths are most stark at home: with deaths in private homes nearly a third above average. Meanwhile in hospitals and care homes they’re just 15 and 10 per cent above average. The shift to dying at home, and the health service ceasing to function, continues. [...] Those concerned about possible long-term effects of the vaccine are not the only ones intrigued by excess deaths. Some followers of the data have contacted me to suggest that perhaps there aren’t any excess deaths at all. There’s a worry among some that the crude averages used by the ONS do not account for an ageing population, and other demographic changes that occur over time. But the most senior figures in statistical academia refute this. Yes the ONS data is crude they say, but it's not the only finding pointing to increased excess deaths.
Claim: More people are dying now than at the peak of the pandemic; the COVID-19 vaccines are the cause of the excess deaths seen in late 2022 (Antony Newby, 2023-01-13)
Evidence (2022-12-14): Msemburi and colleagues set out to estimate excess deaths from COVID-19 for every country in the world. The authors report that there were between 13.2 million and 16.6 million more deaths than expected in 2020 and 2021. This death toll was between 2.4 and 3.1 times higher than the officially reported number of COVID-19-related deaths. Four out of five excess deaths occurred in middle-income countries (Fig. 1), with some of the worst affected in Latin America. In both years combined, the observed mortality in Peru was double the expected level, and it was between 41% and 51% higher than expected in Mexico, Bolivia and Ecuador. Low-income countries had fewer deaths, mostly because they account for only 9% of the global population, and have younger populations, on average, than do higher-income countries. Compared with the published data, Msemburi etal. present more-detailed methods and more-refined estimates, by adjusting the way in which underlying mortality trends were forecast for several countries6.
Claim: More people are dying now than at the peak of the pandemic; the COVID-19 vaccines are the cause of the excess deaths seen in late 2022 (Antony Newby, 2023-01-13)
Evidence (2021-01-12): Covid: 2020 saw most excess deaths since World War Two - Published - comments The Covid pandemic has caused excess deaths to rise to their highest level in the UK since World War Two. [...] Excess deaths are basically a measure of how many more people are dying than would be expected based on the previous few years.
Claim: More people are dying now than at the peak of the pandemic; the COVID-19 vaccines are the cause of the excess deaths seen in late 2022 (Antony Newby, 2023-01-13)
Evidence (2023-01-01): - England: COVID-19 monthly death rate by vaccination status - Estimated cumulative excess deaths during COVIDFaceted Explorer version - Estimated cumulative excess deaths during COVID, from the WHO - Estimated cumulative excess deaths during COVID-19Non-Explorer, single-entity version - Estimated cumulative excess deaths per 100,000 people during COVID, from The Economist - Estimated cumulative excess deaths, from The Economist and the WHO - Estimated daily excess deaths during COVIDFaceted Explorer version - Estimated daily excess deaths during COVIDNon-Explorer, single-entity version - Estimated daily excess deaths per 100,000 people during COVID, from The Economist - Excess mortality: Cumulative deaths from all causes compared to projection based on previous yearsAbsolute deaths - Excess mortality: Cumulative deaths from all causes compared to projection based on previous yearsPercentage - Excess mortality: Cumulative deaths from all causes compared to projection based on previous years, per million people - Excess mortality: Deaths from all causes compared to average over previous yearsP-scores, average baseline - Excess mortality: Deaths from all causes compared to average over previous years, by ageP-scores, average baseline - Excess mortality: Deaths from all causes compared to projectionP-scores, projected baseline - Excess mortality: Deaths from all causes compared to projection based on previous years, by [...] per confirmed caseBar chart - Total COVID-19 vaccine doses administered - Total COVID-19 vaccine doses administered per 100 people - Total confirmed COVID-19 cases vs. deaths per million - Total confirmed COVID-19 deaths and cases per million people - Total confirmed deaths due to COVID-19 vs. population - Total number of people who received at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine - Transit stations: How did the number of visitors change relative to before the pandemic?
Claim: More people are dying now than at the peak of the pandemic; the COVID-19 vaccines are the cause of the excess deaths seen in late 2022 (Antony Newby, 2023-01-13)
Evidence (2020-03-28): In March 2022, CDC changed its data collection schedule to every 8 weeks for the nationwide COVID-19 infection-induced antibody seroprevalence (commercial laboratory) survey. It now includes information on antibodies for pediatric age groups (ages 6 months to 17 years). Adult antibody updates will be based on the national blood donor seroprevalence study.
Claim: More people are dying now than at the peak of the pandemic; the COVID-19 vaccines are the cause of the excess deaths seen in late 2022 (Antony Newby, 2023-01-13)
Evidence (2022-10-25): Our daily estimate of excess deaths around the world How many people have died because of the covid-19 pandemic? The answer depends both on the data available, and on how you define "because". Many people who die while infected with SARS-CoV-2 are never tested for it, and do not enter the official totals. Conversely, some people whose deaths have been attributed to covid-19 had other ailments that might have ended their lives on a similar timeframe anyway. And what about people who died of preventable causes during the pandemic, because hospitals full of covid-19 patients could not treat them? If such cases count, they must be offset by deaths that did not occur but would have in normal times, such as those caused by flu or air pollution.
Claim: More people are dying now than at the peak of the pandemic; the COVID-19 vaccines are the cause of the excess deaths seen in late 2022 (Antony Newby, 2023-01-13)
Evidence (2020-03-05): Excess mortality is a more comprehensive measure of the total impact of the pandemic on deaths than the confirmed COVID-19 death count alone. It captures not only the confirmed deaths, but also COVID-19 deaths that were not correctly diagnosed and reported2 as well as deaths from other causes that are attributable to the overall crisis conditions.3 [...] On 5 May 2022, the WHO published estimates of the number of excess deaths for 194 countries and regions, as well as a global total. These estimates cover the period from the start of 2020 to the end of 2021. [...] - Msemburi et al. (2023). The WHO estimates of excess mortality associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. Nature.
Claim: More people are dying now than at the peak of the pandemic; the COVID-19 vaccines are the cause of the excess deaths seen in late 2022 (Antony Newby, 2023-01-13)
Evidence (2021-05-20): Important: Updated methodology and estimates for excess mortality associated with COVID-19 were released in April 2022. [...] The latest data on Global excess deaths associated with COVID-19 (modelled estimates) are published here. [...] Excess mortality is defined as the difference in the total number of deaths in a crisis compared to those expected under normal conditions. COVID-19 excess mortality accounts for both the total number of deaths directly attributed to the virus as well as the indirect impact, such as disruption to essential health services or travel disruptions.
Claim: More people are dying now than at the peak of the pandemic; the COVID-19 vaccines are the cause of the excess deaths seen in late 2022 (Antony Newby, 2023-01-13)
Evidence (2022-11-03): Since early 2020, both the USA and Europe have experienced excess mortality due, in large part, to COVID-19, a disease caused by SARS-CoV-21,2,3,4,5. By April 14, 2022, there were 978,545 and 1,961,790 laboratory confirmed deaths from COVID-19 reported in the USA and the whole of Europe6, respectively. [...] World Health Organization. Global excess deaths associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. Accessed April 19, 2022. https://www.who.int/news-room/questions-and-answers/item/global-excess-deaths-associated-with-the-COVID-19-pandemic. [...] World Health Organization. Global excess deaths associated with COVID-19 (modelled estimates). Accessed May 5, 2022. https://www.who.int/data/sets/global-excess-deaths-associated-with-covid-19-modelled-estimates
Claim: More people are dying now than at the peak of the pandemic; the COVID-19 vaccines are the cause of the excess deaths seen in late 2022 (Antony Newby, 2023-01-13)
Evidence (2022-12-14): The World Health Organization has a mandate to compile and disseminate statistics on mortality, and we have been tracking the progression of the COVID-19 pandemic since the beginning of 20201. Reported statistics on COVID-19 mortality are problematic for many countries owing to variations in testing access, differential diagnostic capacity and inconsistent certification of COVID-19 as cause of death. Beyond what is directly attributable to it, the pandemic has caused extensive collateral damage that has led to losses of lives and livelihoods. Here we report a comprehensive and consistent measurement of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic by estimating excess deaths, by month, for 2020 and 2021. We predict the pandemic period all-cause deaths in locations lacking complete reported data using an overdispersed Poisson count framework that applies Bayesian inference techniques to quantify uncertainty. We estimate 14.83 million excess deaths globally, 2.74 times more deaths than the 5.42 million reported as due to COVID-19 for the period. There are wide variations in the excess death estimates across the six World Health Organization regions. We describe the data and methods used to generate these estimates and highlight the need for better reporting where gaps persist. [...] COVID-19 Excess Mortality Collaborators. Estimating excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic analysis of COVID-19-related mortality, 2020–21. Lancet399, 1513–1536 (2022).
Claim: More people are dying now than at the peak of the pandemic; the COVID-19 vaccines are the cause of the excess deaths seen in late 2022 (Antony Newby, 2023-01-13)
Evidence (2022-01-18): Countries have reported some five million COVID-19 deaths in two years, but global excess deaths are estimated at double or even quadruple that figure. [...] Last year’s Day of the Dead marked a grim milestone. On 1 November, the global death toll from the COVID-19 pandemic passed 5 million, official data suggested. It has now reached 5.5 million. But that figure is a significant underestimate. Records of excess mortality — a metric that involves comparing all deaths recorded with those expected to occur — show many more people than this have died in the pandemic. [...] Clarification 31 January 2022: This article has been modified to include researchers’ views about COVID-19 deaths in China.
Claim: More people are dying now than at the peak of the pandemic; the COVID-19 vaccines are the cause of the excess deaths seen in late 2022 (Antony Newby, 2023-01-13)
Evidence (2023-01-11): Extra deaths in 2022 close to highest level in 70 years - how much are NHS failings to blame? [...] The total number of excess deaths in 2022 was among the highest recorded since the aftermath of the Second World War, according to figures from the Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI). [...] The first six months of 2022 had fewer deaths than the five-year average, in part because there were still several thousand COVID deaths per week in the first months of 2021, which raised the average that we compare to.
Claim: More people are dying now than at the peak of the pandemic; the COVID-19 vaccines are the cause of the excess deaths seen in late 2022 (Antony Newby, 2023-01-13)
Evidence (2023-03-15): It is estimated that during 2000–2018, measles vaccines prevented 23.2 million deaths, but delays in routine vaccinations caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and crises in Ukraine, Ethiopia, Somalia, and Afghanistan have led to a nearly 80% worldwide rise in measles cases in 2022. [...] WHO estimates that there have been approximately 15 million direct or indirect deaths (also called "excess mortality") globally from January 2020 – December 2021 that were caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. South-East Asia, Europe, and the Americas accounted for 84% of the excess deaths. [...] As COVID-19 case numbers rise across the U.S. due to the highly transmissible omicron subvariants BA.4 and BA.5., FDA calls for Omicron-specific updates to COVID-19 vaccine boosters from Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna in fall 2022.
Claim: More people are dying now than at the peak of the pandemic; the COVID-19 vaccines are the cause of the excess deaths seen in late 2022 (Antony Newby, 2023-01-13)
Evidence (2023-01-10): Excess deaths in 2022 among worst in 50 years [...] Covid is still killing people, but is involved in fewer deaths now than at the start of the pandemic. Roughly 38,000 deaths involved Covid in 2022 compared with more than 95,000 in 2020. We are still seeing more deaths overall than would be expected based on recent history. The difference in 2022 - compared with 2020 and 2021 - is that Covid deaths were one of several factors, rather than the main explanation for this excess.
Claim: More people are dying now than at the peak of the pandemic; the COVID-19 vaccines are the cause of the excess deaths seen in late 2022 (Antony Newby, 2023-01-13)
Evidence (2023-04-17): COVID-19 vaccines substantially reduce the risk of dying from COVID-19, and serious side effects are very rare. Excess deaths among working-age adults in 2021 and 2022 were driven by COVID-19 and other factors, not vaccination. Faulty logic underlies claims that vaccines caused mass disability and economic harm. [...] Despite overwhelming evidence that COVID-19 vaccines have mitigated the effects of the pandemic, a report called the Vaccine Damage Project, or V-Damage Project, claims that they led to 310,000 excess deaths among Americans ages 25 through 64 in 2021 and 2022. It also baselessly claims the vaccines had a "significant impact" on the number of Americans with disabilities and that COVID-19 vaccines were the "most likely cause" for a large increase in work absences. [...] "COVID-19 Vaccines Did Not Cause Excess Deaths among Millennials." AP News. 26 Mar 2022.
Claim: More people are dying now than at the peak of the pandemic; the COVID-19 vaccines are the cause of the excess deaths seen in late 2022 (Antony Newby, 2023-01-13)
Evidence (2023-03-25): "If you add up the excess deaths that have occurred in the United States because of this unfolding problem, it dwarfs what happened during COVID-19, as horrible as COVID-19 was," Woolf says. "We've lost many more Americans cumulatively because of this longer systemic issue. And if the systemic issue is unaddressed, it will continue to claim lives going forward."