copenlu/druid huggingface dataset:
Claim: “Joe Biden’s margin of the less than 21,000 votes in Wisconsin was the tightest of any state in 2020.” (Rebecca Kleefisch, 2022-06-08)
Evidence (2020-12-15): Biden flipped five states on his way to winning the Electoral College: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Every other state held to form. [...] But as Andrew Jackson, Samuel Tilden, Grover Cleveland, Al Gore, and Hillary Clinton can all attest, winning the popular vote doesn’t necessarily mean winning the presidency. When you look at the smallest popular vote shift needed to give Trump a victory, the 2020 election was close. Indeed, it was even closer than 2016. If Trump picked up the right mix of 42,921 votes in Arizona (10,457), Georgia (11,779), and Wisconsin (20,682), the Electoral College would have been tied at 269 all. The House would have then decided the election. Republicans will hold the majority of state delegations in the new Congress, and they undoubtedly would have chosen Trump. If Trump had also picked up the one electoral vote in Nebraska’s Second Congressional District, which he lost to Biden by 22,091 votes, he would have won the Electoral College outright. Back in 2016, Clinton needed to pick up the right mix of 78,000 votes in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin to win the Electoral College. [...] The pandemic helped popularize early voting and mail-in ballots. Americans cast 101,453,111 early votes. That is 64.1 percent of the total votes cast in 2020. The total number of mail-in ballots was 65,642,049.
Claim: “Joe Biden’s margin of the less than 21,000 votes in Wisconsin was the tightest of any state in 2020.” (Rebecca Kleefisch, 2022-06-08)
Evidence (2020-12-08): Presidential elections are decided at the margins, meaning how a handful of states shift from one election to the next can be enough to cast one party out of the White House and bring the other one in. This was certainly true in 2020, as Joe Biden edged out President Trump thanks to narrow victories in key swing states such as Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — all states Trump carried in 2016. However, it wasn’t a uniform swing. The size and scope of these shifts varied, and many may not be lasting. Some formerly blue states returned to their pre-2016 status; some once-red states lurched to the left, in some cases even voting Democratic for the first time in decades; and some competitive states didn’t shift much at all. Below, we’ve broken out how 16 battleground states voted since 2000 and what the ever-changing Electoral College map could mean going forward. [...] And even though these states ended up in Biden’s column, his margin of victory was pretty narrow. He won Michigan by about 3 percentage points, Pennsylvania by a little more than 1 point, and Wisconsin by less than 1 point. Granted, Trump carried each of these states by less than 1 point in 2016, but Biden’s margins were slim and it's unclear moving forward whether these states will remain blue.
Claim: “Joe Biden’s margin of the less than 21,000 votes in Wisconsin was the tightest of any state in 2020.” (Rebecca Kleefisch, 2022-06-08)
Evidence (2021-04-08): County - Adams100% in - Ashland100% in - Barron100% in - Bayfield100% in - Brown100% in - Buffalo100% in - Burnett100% in - Calumet100% in - Chippewa100% in - Clark100% in - Columbia100% in - Crawford100% in - Dane100% in - Dodge100% in - Door100% in - Douglas100% in - Dunn100% in - Eau Claire100% in - Florence100% in - Fond du Lac100% in dem [...] Wisconsin Presidential exit polls National exit pollsUpdated at Nov. 30, 2020 - Biden - Trump
Claim: “Joe Biden’s margin of the less than 21,000 votes in Wisconsin was the tightest of any state in 2020.” (Rebecca Kleefisch, 2022-06-08)
Evidence (2021-01-19): We can see just how large this advantage was if we average the margins in the two "tipping-point" states of Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, or the states that delivered (or would have delivered) the decisive 270th electoral vote Biden and Trump needed to win, respectively. (Biden’s tipping-point state was Wisconsin, while Trump’s would have been Pennsylvania, provided he also won Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin.1) Averaged together, their margin was about D+0.9 points, or roughly 3.5 points more Republican-leaning than the national popular vote margin. This is significant because, as you can see in the chart below, the last time a party had an advantage this large — or larger — in the Electoral College was in 1948, when the GOP’s edge was 3.8 points. [...] Ultimately, it’s impossible to say where things will go from here — we don’t know who’ll be running in 2024 or what the conditions will be. But if the Frost Belt states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin continue to lean somewhat to the right of the country, that will benefit the GOP in the Electoral College — unless there is a counter-shift elsewhere in the Democrats’ favor. In 2020, for example, Biden narrowly carried traditionally Republican states like Arizona and Georgia. Those two states alone can’t make up for Democrats losing that Frost Belt trio, but Democratic improvement in those states and other places in the Sun Belt (whither "Blue Texas?") could undo the Republicans’ current edge in the Electoral College.
Claim: “Joe Biden’s margin of the less than 21,000 votes in Wisconsin was the tightest of any state in 2020.” (Rebecca Kleefisch, 2022-06-08)
Evidence (2020-11-11): President Donald Trump’s efforts to deny the outcome of the 2020 election cannot change an undeniable reality: Joe Biden won decisively, and his lead nationally and in key states has grown over time as more votes have been counted. [...] And let’s be clear, the chance of a recount overturning the results in 2020 is basically nothing. Fairvote has looked at statewide recounts since 2000. The average shift in votes has been a mere 430 votes and 0.02 points. The largest shift in votes was a little less than 2,600 and 0.11 points. [...] Indeed, Trump would need at least one recount to shift the margin by over 0.62 points and 20,000 votes (Biden’s current margin in Wisconsin) to win. That’s just not possible outside some divine intervention for Trump. The idea Trump is overturning the result in Michigan, where his supporters want a recount and his edge is about 150,000 and a little less than 3 points, is laughable.
Claim: “Joe Biden’s margin of the less than 21,000 votes in Wisconsin was the tightest of any state in 2020.” (Rebecca Kleefisch, 2022-06-08)
Evidence (2020-11-18): Wisconsin: Trump won here in 2016 by fewer than 23,000 votes. Biden, though, won it by 20,500 votes (pending a recount). So every vote counted. Biden turned out more Milwaukee County voters and won by a 20,000 more votes than Clinton did in 2016. But Biden's biggest vote gain came from Dane County, home to Madison and the University of Wisconsin. He won there by 35,000 more votes than Clinton did in 2016. Biden also chipped away in some more rural and suburban areas, even Waukesha, the heavily Republican county. Biden cut into Trump's margin there by 7,500 votes.
Claim: “Joe Biden’s margin of the less than 21,000 votes in Wisconsin was the tightest of any state in 2020.” (Rebecca Kleefisch, 2022-06-08)
Evidence (2024-01-10): Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden narrowly won Wisconsin on Wednesday afternoon, a key victory in his pursuit of the White House. President Donald Trump’s campaign promised it would be immediately subject to a recount. [...] Biden won 10 votes by capturing Wisconsin by fewer than 21,000 votes, or about six-tenths of a percentage point, based on unofficial results. [...] In a live statement from Wilmington, Delaware a little after 3 p.m. CST, Biden highlighted massive national turnout — the most votes ever cast in a presidential election — and specifically noted the 20,000 vote margin in Wisconsin.
Claim: “Joe Biden’s margin of the less than 21,000 votes in Wisconsin was the tightest of any state in 2020.” (Rebecca Kleefisch, 2022-06-08)
Evidence (2024-03-03): We often mention that Biden won Wisconsin in 2020 by a little more than 20,000 votes. But taking a look at the votes by ward could give an interesting picture of how competitive the election was – and could be again this fall. [...] He explained that Biden won the state by 20,682 votes (which is correct) and that Wisconsin had 6,656 wards where voters lived. [...] At a Waukesha rally, Secretary of State Sarah Godlewski said "when it comes to how many votes Joe Biden won, it was literally less than a few votes per ward."
Claim: “Joe Biden’s margin of the less than 21,000 votes in Wisconsin was the tightest of any state in 2020.” (Rebecca Kleefisch, 2022-06-08)
Evidence (2021-05-14): A new analysis uncovers the demographic shifts that led to Joe Biden’s victory Suburban whites moved left; young and non-white voters showed up
Claim: “Joe Biden’s margin of the less than 21,000 votes in Wisconsin was the tightest of any state in 2020.” (Rebecca Kleefisch, 2022-06-08)
Evidence (2020-12-14): Wisconsin Supreme Court upholds Biden's win, rejects Trump lawsuit MADISON - The state Supreme Court upheld Democrat Joe Biden's Wisconsin win Monday, handing President Donald Trump a defeat less than an hour before the Electoral College met. [...] Biden edged out Trump in Wisconsin by 21,000 votes, or 0.6%. It was a winning margin of about the size Trump enjoyed four years ago.
Claim: “Joe Biden’s margin of the less than 21,000 votes in Wisconsin was the tightest of any state in 2020.” (Rebecca Kleefisch, 2022-06-08)
Evidence (2021-05-05): Joe Biden wins election to be the 46th US President 0 0 270 to Win 0 0 0%
Claim: “Joe Biden’s margin of the less than 21,000 votes in Wisconsin was the tightest of any state in 2020.” (Rebecca Kleefisch, 2022-06-08)
Evidence (2024-09-30): For more than a decade, Wisconsin has been at the white-hot center of American politics. After a long stretch of Republican dominance there — capped off by a shock Trump win in 2016 — Democrats have mounted a considerable comeback in recent years. They ousted Scott Walker in 2018, tilted the state to Joe Biden — barely — in 2020, and gained a majority on the state supreme court, breaking Republicans’ suffocating statewide gerrymander. Polls show Kamala Harris with a small but persistent edge over Donald Trump, but for two straight presidential cycles, polls have dramatically overestimated Democratic strength in Wisconsin.
Claim: “Joe Biden’s margin of the less than 21,000 votes in Wisconsin was the tightest of any state in 2020.” (Rebecca Kleefisch, 2022-06-08)
Evidence (2022-06-27): Former Wisconsin Lt. Gov Rebecca Kleefisch: "Joe Biden’s margin of the less than 21,000 votes in Wisconsin was the tightest of any state in 2020." [...] "Joe Biden’s margin of the less than 21,000 votes in Wisconsin was the tightest of any state in 2020," former Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch noted in a June 8, 2022 email. "Make no mistake, the Left knows exactly what’s on the line in the Badger State this year." [...] "But in 2020 Wisconsin was not the tightest in terms of either the raw number of votes or percentage of the vote separating the top two presidential candidates," he said in an email. "By both measures Wisconsin was the third most competitive state in 2020. The margins between Biden and Trump – in terms of both raw votes and the percentage difference between them – were actually tighter in Arizona and Georgia than in Wisconsin."
Claim: “Joe Biden’s margin of the less than 21,000 votes in Wisconsin was the tightest of any state in 2020.” (Rebecca Kleefisch, 2022-06-08)
Evidence (2020-12-02): In a contest with historic turnout, President-elect Joe Biden topped President Trump by nearly 7 million votes, and 74 votes in the Electoral College, but his victory really was stitched together with narrow margins in a handful of states. [...] The graphic below shows the results in those six swing states, illustrating the especially close margins in Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin. The tight races in the trio of states had a big electoral impact. As NPR's Domenico Montanaro has put it, "just 44,000 votes in Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin separated Biden and Trump from a tie in the Electoral College."
Claim: “Joe Biden’s margin of the less than 21,000 votes in Wisconsin was the tightest of any state in 2020.” (Rebecca Kleefisch, 2022-06-08)
Evidence (2020-11-18): Trump would have had to pay nearly $8 million to conduct a full statewide recount of Wisconsin, a state he narrowly lost two weeks ago by nearly 21,000 votes. But state laws allow a more targeted approach to be used. [...] "The official canvass results reaffirmed Joe Biden’s clear and resounding win in Wisconsin after Wisconsin voters turned out to cast their ballots in record numbers. A cherry-picked and selective recounting of Milwaukee and Dane County will not change these results," Biden spokesman Nate Evans said in a statement. [...] Trump has been furiously fundraising for the Wisconsin recount and legal challenges in other states to try to overturn Biden's victory.
Claim: “Joe Biden’s margin of the less than 21,000 votes in Wisconsin was the tightest of any state in 2020.” (Rebecca Kleefisch, 2022-06-08)
Evidence (2024-08-18): Both the Biden and Trump teams are working alongside the statewide parties to put staff on the ground in Wisconsin. But in a state that Biden won by just under 21,000 votes four years ago and Trump carried in 2016 by nearly the same margin, its political nature is not lost on either party. [...] Wikler has seen the state through a series of major wins, including Biden’s victory in 2020. And he’s keen on delivering Biden’s message this year with what he’s calling "surround sound," with both in-person and online outreach. [...] MOORE: Sauk and Columbia are two of over 20 counties in Wisconsin that voted for Obama twice and then flipped to Trump eight years ago. But in 2020, Sauk voted for Biden and Columbia voted for Trump, both by less than two percentage points, two of the tightest margins in Wisconsin, a state Biden narrowly won last time and that Trump won in 2016. Mark Kolloway sits a few tables away from Gamblethomas. The real estate investor says he’s a Trump supporter and actually moved from Illinois to Wisconsin in part because of the 50-50 nature of the state.
Claim: “Joe Biden’s margin of the less than 21,000 votes in Wisconsin was the tightest of any state in 2020.” (Rebecca Kleefisch, 2022-06-08)
Evidence (2024-06-23): During the 2020 election, Hudson — a city nestled on the banks of the St. Croix River that separates Wisconsin from Minnesota — favored Trump over Biden by a slim 155 votes. Almost twice as many Hudson voters, 308, voted for someone else — a rare move in a closely contested race. [...] Hudson’s status as a ground zero of sorts for double haters was mirrored in the state as a whole: Biden beat Trump by less than 21,000 votes in Wisconsin, while nearly 57,000 voters cast ballots for someone else. [...] The Post-Schar School poll surveyed 3,513 registered voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. These six states narrowly voted for Biden in 2020, but five of them backed Trump in 2016. The poll also focused on a group characterized as "Deciders" — voters with sporadic turnout or who are uncommitted to Trump or Biden.
Claim: “Joe Biden’s margin of the less than 21,000 votes in Wisconsin was the tightest of any state in 2020.” (Rebecca Kleefisch, 2022-06-08)
Evidence (2024-05-08): Trump, Biden said, "came here with your senator, Ron Johnson, literally holding a golden shovel, promising to build the eighth wonder of the world." [...] Wednesday was Biden's fourth trip to Wisconsin so far this year, an indication of how central the state is to the President's reelection roadmap. Wisconsin is a pillar of the so-called blue wall with Michigan and Pennsylvania - all three of which Trump won in 2016 and Biden flipped four years later. In 2020, Biden won Wisconsin by fewer than 21,000 votes. And with a similarly small margin expected to select the 2024 victor, several advisers and former Biden officials have said that striking the right policy tone with moderates this year - without alienating the party's base - is paramount.
Claim: “Joe Biden’s margin of the less than 21,000 votes in Wisconsin was the tightest of any state in 2020.” (Rebecca Kleefisch, 2022-06-08)
Evidence (2024-10-01): Our list of swing states closely matches the list of places where Trump-backed Republican officials tried to thwart Mr Biden’s win in the 2020 election. [...] The Great Lakes state has picked the winning presidential candidate in the last two elections. Despite backing Mr Biden in 2020, it has become symbolic of a nationwide backlash over the president’s support for Israel during that country’s war in Gaza. [...] The Badger State also picked the winning presidential candidate in both 2016 and 2020, by a margin of little more than 20,000 votes each time.
Claim: “Joe Biden’s margin of the less than 21,000 votes in Wisconsin was the tightest of any state in 2020.” (Rebecca Kleefisch, 2022-06-08)
Evidence (2024-04-09): Unfortunately for Trump and his MAGA Republican movement, 2016 was the high-water mark. Democrats won the governorship and every other statewide office in 2018, and then Biden beat Trump in 2020 by almost 21,000 votes. [...] Whether that’s the case or not, one thing is certain: Donald Trump’s visit to Wisconsin was not sufficient to give him a better primary night than Joe Biden. Biden’s now 2-0 in Wisconsin, and looking to November.
Claim: “Joe Biden’s margin of the less than 21,000 votes in Wisconsin was the tightest of any state in 2020.” (Rebecca Kleefisch, 2022-06-08)
Evidence (2024-01-01): 2020 Popular Vote Tracker 2020 National Popular Vote Tracker Please note that results are not yet final except where noted in the table below.
Claim: “Joe Biden’s margin of the less than 21,000 votes in Wisconsin was the tightest of any state in 2020.” (Rebecca Kleefisch, 2022-06-08)
Evidence (2024-10-01): All without even a nod to Carter’s birthday and status as the longest-living former president, who has also been living in hospice care for 19 months. 2 former GOP governors back Trump during rally at Wisconsin metal manufacturer Two former Wisconsin Republican governors who together won seven elections told Trump supporters at a rally Tuesday that it’s critical for the former president to bolster GOP turnout in one of the most liberal counties in the battleground state. Former Govs. Tommy Thompson and Scott Walker told hundreds of Trump supporters inside a metal manufacturer in Waunakee that winning Wisconsin means campaigning in Democratic areas like Dane County. Trump was to speak there later Tuesday. WATCH: Trump campaigns at a manufacturing facility in Waunakee, Wisconsin President Joe Biden won 75 percent of the vote in 2020 in Dane County, beating Trump by 181,000 votes in the county while carrying the state by fewer than 21,000. Thompson, who was elected governor four times, said he told Trump to win Wisconsin he had to "go where the opposition is," including Dane County, which is home to liberal state capital of Madison.
Claim: “Joe Biden’s margin of the less than 21,000 votes in Wisconsin was the tightest of any state in 2020.” (Rebecca Kleefisch, 2022-06-08)
Evidence (2022-12-08): Warnock’s victory means that only one of this year’s 35 Senate elections didn’t go the same way as the state’s 2020 presidential vote. The exception was Wisconsin, where Republican Sen. Ron Johnson won a third term this year by fewer than 27,000 votes – or 1% of the nearly 2.65 million votes cast – even though Democrat Joe Biden carried the state (by fewer than 21,000 votes) in 2020. Although Wisconsin’s Senate race was the lone exception this year, the midterms did reinforce the Badger State’s especially "swingy" reputation: Simultaneously with Johnson’s victory, Democratic Gov. Tony Evers won a second term by about 90,000 votes, or roughly 3.4 percentage points. This is the second update to an analysis first published in June 2018 of the growing alignment between states’ presidential and senatorial votes. We relied on the Federal Election Commission, supplemented by information from the U.S. House Clerk’s office, for past years’ election results and compared the winning party in each Senate election with the outcome of the most recent presidential election in that state. The 2022 results were taken from The New York Times’ election tracker and The Washington Post. [...] Note: This is an update to a post originally published June 26, 2018, and most recently updated on Jan. 8, 2021.
Claim: “Joe Biden’s margin of the less than 21,000 votes in Wisconsin was the tightest of any state in 2020.” (Rebecca Kleefisch, 2022-06-08)
Evidence (2020-11-24): Trump’s win in Wisconsin by less than a percentage point broke the streak for Democratic presidential nominees — they had won the seven elections before 2016. Close races are typical in the Badger State. Al Gore and John Kerry both won by less than half a point. See 2020 primary results [...] This fast-growing county is home to the University of Wisconsin at Madison and is a Democratic stronghold. South of Milwaukee, it is one of the largest counties in the state to swing from Barack Obama to Donald Trump. Democrat Tony Evers carried it in 2018.
Claim: “Joe Biden’s margin of the less than 21,000 votes in Wisconsin was the tightest of any state in 2020.” (Rebecca Kleefisch, 2022-06-08)
Evidence (2024-04-05): Trump Has Now Lost to Biden in Wisconsin… Twice [...] Wisconsin has always been a big deal for Trump. When he took the state in 2016, beating Democrat Hillary Clinton by roughly 22,000 votes, he swung the historically blue state into the Republican column, cinching an Electoral College victory and the White House. Unfortunately for Trump and his MAGA Republican movement, 2016 was the high-water mark. Democrats won the Wisconsin governorship and every other statewide office in 2018, and then Biden beat Trump in 2020 by almost 21,000 votes. The 2020 victory put the Democratic presidential nominee on track for his own Electoral College win and a term in the White House. Democrats have kept winning in Wisconsin since then, holding the governorship and the critical position of state attorney general in 2022, and gaining a progressive majority on the state Supreme Court in 2023. [...] Biden’s now 2-0 in Wisconsin, and looking to November.
Claim: “Joe Biden’s margin of the less than 21,000 votes in Wisconsin was the tightest of any state in 2020.” (Rebecca Kleefisch, 2022-06-08)
Evidence (2024-04-13): An Associated Press investigation found fewer than 475 cases of voter fraud in six battleground states during the 2020 presidential election -- a number far too little to have make any different in the outcome of that election. Arizona had the highest number of potential fraud cases of the states AP examined with 198 of the 3.4 million votes cast -- and that amount of potential fraud cases comprised less than 2% of the margin by which Biden won, according to the AP. In Nevada, the AP found that local officials identified between 93 and 98 potential fraud cases out of 1.4 million ballots cast, representing less than one-third of 1% of Biden’s margin of victory. Trump has continued to falsely claim he won the 2020 election in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, but he lost all three of those states in the last presidential election. In Pennsylvania, Biden won by 81,660; in Michigan, Biden won by about 21,000 votes; in Wisconsin, Biden won by more than 20,000. [...] "I will secure our elections. We are going to secure our elections. Our goal will be one-day voting with paper ballots -- very simple -- and a voter ID, but until then, Republicans must win. Landslide. We want it to be too big, too big to rig," Trump said at an April 2 rally in Wisconsin, where he continued to falsely claim he won the state in 2020.