copenlu/druid huggingface dataset:
Claim: "A third of Antarctic ice shelf risks collapse as our planet warms" (Amy Woodyatt, 2021-04-16)
Evidence (2021-04-08): Scientists at the University of Reading found that a third of ice sheets around the Antarctic could melt if temperatures increase. [...] Research from the University of Reading found that more than a third of the Antarctic ice shelf area could collapse and release "unimaginable amounts" of water into the sea. [...] The findings suggest that 4C warming could leave 34% of the area of all Antarctic ice shelves - around half a million square kilometres - at risk of collapse.
Claim: "A third of Antarctic ice shelf risks collapse as our planet warms" (Amy Woodyatt, 2021-04-16)
Evidence (2021-04-09): Over a third of the Antarctic's ice shelf area may be at risk of collapsing into the sea if global temperatures reach four degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, according to a study. The research, published in the Geophysical Research Letters journal, found that 34 % of the area of all Antarctic ice shelves – around half a million square kilometers – including 67 % of ice shelf area on the Antarctic Peninsula, would be at risk of destabilisation under such a warming scenario. [...] The researchers identified the Larsen C, Shackleton, Pine Island and Wilkins ice shelves as most at-risk under four degrees Celsius of warming, due to their geography and the significant runoff predicted in those areas.
Claim: "A third of Antarctic ice shelf risks collapse as our planet warms" (Amy Woodyatt, 2021-04-16)
Evidence (2024-09-10): An unexpected ice shelf collapse in East Antarctica, after temperatures spiked 70°F above normal, highlights bigger problems in the West, where one glacier could singlehandedly raise global sea levels several feet. [...] In March, East Antarctica—the other, colder side of the continent—saw its first-ever ice-shelf collapse. As a late Austral summer heat wave brought extraordinary temperatures and high winds to the region, the Conger ice shelf disintegrated within days. The unexpected collapse highlighted the importance of—and uncertainty about—the continent’s ice shelves, which act like bottle stoppers controlling the flow of ice from land to sea. Their incipient demise, scientists fear, could be the beginning of more ice loss—and much more sea level rise that would affect countries all over the world. [...] The instability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is, in essence, a tipping point: Cross it and there’s little hope of return. Sustained warming of more than 3ºC, for example, could lock Earth into an eventual sea level rise of 20 to 40 feet over the next several hundred or 1000 years. Even if in the future it became possible to remove enough carbon dioxide from the atmosphere to bring temperatures back down, the ice sheets would probably be unrecoverable: They are much harder to grow than to break.
Claim: "A third of Antarctic ice shelf risks collapse as our planet warms" (Amy Woodyatt, 2021-04-16)
Evidence (2021-04-08): More than a third of the Antarctic ice shelf risks collapsing into the sea if global temperatures reach 4 degrees Celsius (7.2 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels as climate change warms the world, a new study from the UK’s University of Reading has warned. In a forecasting study, scientists found that 34% of the area of all Antarctic ice shelves, measuring some half a million square kilometers, could destabilize if world temperatures were to rise by 4 degrees. Some 67% of the ice shelf area on the Antarctic Peninsula would be at risk of destabilization under this scenario, researchers said. [...] Researchers identified four ice shelves that would be threatened by a warmer climate: The Larsen C, Shackleton, Pine Island and Wilkins ice shelves, which are vulnerable due to their geography, and the runoff predicted in those areas.
Claim: "A third of Antarctic ice shelf risks collapse as our planet warms" (Amy Woodyatt, 2021-04-16)
Evidence (2024-10-08): One-third of Antarctic ice shelf area at risk of collapse as planet warms [...] - Study shows highest warming scenario would put 34% of Antarctic's ice shelf area at risk of fracture and collapse from melting and run-off - including 67% of the Antarctic Peninsular ice shelf area. This would allow glaciers to flow freely into the sea causing sea level rise. More than a third of the Antarctic's ice shelf area could be at risk of collapsing into the sea if global temperatures reach 4°C above pre-industrial levels, new research has shown.
Claim: "A third of Antarctic ice shelf risks collapse as our planet warms" (Amy Woodyatt, 2021-04-16)
Evidence (2021-04-22): Since the early 2000s, Thwaites, also known as the "Doomsday Glacier," has dumped a trillion tons of ice into the sea. Scientists like Scambos believe it may be in the early stages of an irreversible collapse, which could take out a large portion of the West Antarctic ice sheet, raising global sea levels by at least 2 feet, and perhaps more than 10. [...] Warm ocean water is weakening the undersides of the floating ice shelves that support Thwaites. [...] While East Antarctica’s deep-rooted glaciers "seem to be further away from reaching the tipping point for now," as Scambos puts it, continued ocean warming and circulation of warm, deep water beneath their protective ice shelves could eventually destabilize them. A 2014 modeling paper found that removing a comparably small "plug" of ice from the shelf buttressing the Wilkes Basin — equivalent to just 3 inches of sea-level rise — could be enough to tip off a runaway collapse that adds up to 13 feet to global sea levels. Recent airborne and satellite remote sensing surveys, meanwhile, reveal that both Totten and Denman Glaciers are already retreating at their grounding lines. The collapse of Totten would add the equivalent of another 13 feet of sea-level rise; Denman would add another 5.
Claim: "A third of Antarctic ice shelf risks collapse as our planet warms" (Amy Woodyatt, 2021-04-16)
Evidence (2022-11-10): Ice sheets are the massive expanses of ice that cover Greenland and Antarctica, and which contain about two thirds of the freshwater on Earth. Climate change is already causing them to melt, and raising sea levels around the world. But if the Earth lingers at, or above, 2 degrees Celsius of warming, as it is on track to, that melting will steadily accelerate. Scientists warn that will cause parts of the ice sheets to collapse, sending massive amounts of water into the world's oceans. [...] Research suggests that the collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet may already be underway. A massive glacier there, which covers an area about the size of the state of Washington, is melting quickly in response to climate change, and could splinter into the ocean in the coming decades.
Claim: "A third of Antarctic ice shelf risks collapse as our planet warms" (Amy Woodyatt, 2021-04-16)
Evidence (2020-10-12): Polar Ice Sheets — The report states, with medium confidence, that at an increased level of warming between 1.5 and 2 degrees Celsius, instabilities in the Antarctic ice sheet and/or the irreversible loss of the Greenland ice sheet could lead to multi-meter (greater than 6 feet) sea level rise over a time scale of hundreds to thousands of years. [...] Loss of sea ice at 1.5 degrees Celsius warming will impact the habitats of many organisms, from phytoplankton, to marine mammals like polar bears and whales, especially in the Arctic Ocean and the Western Antarctic Peninsula.
Claim: "A third of Antarctic ice shelf risks collapse as our planet warms" (Amy Woodyatt, 2021-04-16)
Evidence (2024-01-01): When ice shelves shrink or collapse, they no longer hold the massive ice sheet’s glaciers in place. Without these stoppers holding back glacial flow, the ice flows more freely into the ocean, raising sea levels. A study published in 2020 analyzed satellite data from 1994 to 2018, finding that Antarctica’s ice shelves have lost nearly 4 trillion metric tons of ice since the mid-1990s. From 1979 to 2017, the mass balance in Antarctica shows a decline for the entire period, with a ramping up in the 2000s for coasts most exposed to the warm circumpolar deep water. The Amundsen and Ross Seas appear to have the strongest impact in terms of higher temperatures as these warmer ocean waters move in, but there is evidence of subglacial melt from warming ocean waters in both East and West Antarctica.
Claim: "A third of Antarctic ice shelf risks collapse as our planet warms" (Amy Woodyatt, 2021-04-16)
Evidence (2009-05-10): Local projects like that might not do much good in the very long run, though, depending on the course of change elsewhere on the planet. Part of Antarctica's Larsen Ice Shelf broke apart in early 2002. Although floating ice does not change sea level when it melts (any more than a glass of water will overflow when the ice cubes in it melt), scientists became concerned that the collapse could foreshadow the breakup of other ice shelves in Antarctica and allow increased glacial discharge into the sea from ice sheets on the continent. If the West Antarctic ice sheet were to break up, which scientists consider very unlikely this century, it alone contains enough ice to raise sea level by nearly 20 feet (6 meters).
Claim: "A third of Antarctic ice shelf risks collapse as our planet warms" (Amy Woodyatt, 2021-04-16)
Evidence (2021-04-09): New research has found that if global temperatures reach 4 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century, more than a third of ice shelves surrounding Antarctica could be at risk of collapsing and releasing "unimaginable amounts" of water into the sea. - The research, published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, suggests that 4C warming could leave 34% of the area of all the Antarctic ice shelves- spreading over about half a million square kilometres- at the risk of collapse. - As part of the study, the researchers also identified Larsen C, the largest remaining ice shelf on the peninsula, as being particularly at risk in a warmer climate. They said other ice shelves facing this threat included Shackleton, Pine Island, and Wilkins.
Claim: "A third of Antarctic ice shelf risks collapse as our planet warms" (Amy Woodyatt, 2021-04-16)
Evidence (2024-01-01): Between 1992 and 2017, Antarctica lost more than three trillion tons of ice, most of which came from the West Antarctica Ice Sheet. Some of the most dramatic impacts of warming are collapsing ice shelves in West Antarctica, which are caused by warming. The animation at the left shows the historic breakup of the Larsen B Ice Shelf. Ice shelves are like bookends that support ice sheets and glaciers, helping them stay on land. When an ice shelf collapses into the ocean, the glaciers that it held in place begin to slide into the sea at an accelerated rate. [...] Since the late 1980s, a number of Antarctic ice shelves have collapsed or retreated. While the West Antarctic Ice Sheet suffered some of the largest early losses, the East Antarctic Ice Sheet is being affected as well. In late March 2022, the 1,191 square mile Conger Ice Shelf (about the size of Los Angeles) collapsed, shortly after a surge of warm air resulted in temperatures that were a record 40°C (72°F) above normal. [...] In total, parts of 21 ice shelves on the Antarctica Peninsula broke apart between 2000 and 2020. At sustained warming levels between 2°C and 3°C, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet will be lost almost completely and irreversibly over thousands of years.
Claim: "A third of Antarctic ice shelf risks collapse as our planet warms" (Amy Woodyatt, 2021-04-16)
Evidence (2023-05-11): Glaciers and ice sheets, large land-based formations of ice, are melting as global temperatures rise. That meltwater drains into the sea, increasing the ocean's water volume and global sea level. Melting ice has caused about two-thirds of the rise in sea level to date, one-third from land ice in Greenland and Antarctica and one third from melting ice on mountains. Ice sheets and glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica melt three ways: from above due to warming air, from the sides as they break off into the sea, and from below due to warming ocean water where the ice extends over the sea. Because of this, the rate of ice melt varies from place to place as conditions change. The Arctic is warming more quickly than the Antarctic, which explains why the ice there is thinning more quickly. However, recent research suggests that the melting of Antarctica’s ice shelves may be unstoppable—although the process may take centuries.
Claim: "A third of Antarctic ice shelf risks collapse as our planet warms" (Amy Woodyatt, 2021-04-16)
Evidence (2023-08-22): As global temperatures continue to warm, additional sea level rise is inevitable. How much and by when depends mostly on the future rate of greenhouse gas emissions. But another source of uncertainty is whether big ice sheets in Antarctica and Greenland will melt in a steady, predictable way as the Earth gets warmer, or whether they will reach a tipping point and rapidly collapse.
Claim: "A third of Antarctic ice shelf risks collapse as our planet warms" (Amy Woodyatt, 2021-04-16)
Evidence (2024-07-18): The problem is that increasingly warm ocean waters are melting the Thwaites Glacier from below, weakening its structural integrity and speeding up its destabilization. Consequently, recent research also suggests that its ice shelf could shatter in as little as five years. Without it, the Thwaites Glacier’s slide into the ocean will accelerate and cause global sea level rise that impacts millions of people. (Hence, the nickname "Doomsday Glacier.") That, in turn, would further weaken the rest of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, whose ice shelves are already melting at previously unthinkable rates. Part of this may be because, according to the Science study, "observations have revealed that parts of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet may have already passed a tipping point."
Claim: "A third of Antarctic ice shelf risks collapse as our planet warms" (Amy Woodyatt, 2021-04-16)
Evidence (2021-04-11): Over a third of Antarctic ice shelf could collapse as climate change warms the Earth Over a third of the Antarctic ice shelf is at risk of collapsing as Earth continues to warm. In a new study, scientists at the University of Reading have found that as climate change continues, if Earth's global temperature rises to 7.2 degrees Fahrenheit (4 degrees Celsius) above pre-industrial levels, about 193,000 square miles (500,000 square kilometers) of the Antarctic ice shelves could collapse into the sea. Ice shelves are permanent floating slabs of ice attached to coastline, and the collapse of these shelves could significantly raise global sea levels, the researchers suggest.
Claim: "A third of Antarctic ice shelf risks collapse as our planet warms" (Amy Woodyatt, 2021-04-16)
Evidence (2009-01-01): Dr John Mercer, a glaciologist at Ohio State University in Columbus, warns that global warming could cause Antarctic ice sheets to collapse, leading to a disastrous rise in sea levels [...] Climate models suggest that when this sector collapses, it could destabilise the rest of the West Antarctic ice sheet like falling dominoes. This would cause sea levels to rise by three metres over a timescale of centuries to millennia. [...] The collapse of these three ice sheets will raise sea levels by around 10 metres over the period of thousands of years. However, how quickly they rise depends on the magnitude of global warming.
Claim: "A third of Antarctic ice shelf risks collapse as our planet warms" (Amy Woodyatt, 2021-04-16)
Evidence (2024-04-23): It’s known that Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW), a water mass that is up to 4°C above local freezing temperatures, is flowing beneath the ice shelves in West Antarctica and melting them from below. Since so much of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet lies below sea level, it is particularly vulnerable to this warm water intrusion and may further retreat in the future. [...] "This cycle could speed up the melting of ice shelves, potentially making the West Antarctic Ice Sheet less stable in the future." [...] Dr Alessandro Silvano from the University of Southampton, a coauthor on the study, said: "These simulations reveal that this deep current conveying warm waters toward the ice shelves is driven by the very same ice shelf melting that such warm waters cause."
Claim: "A third of Antarctic ice shelf risks collapse as our planet warms" (Amy Woodyatt, 2021-04-16)
Evidence (2020-06-22): Long-term thinning from surface and basal melting preconditions the ice shelf to collapse. Negative mass balances on tributary glaciers can lead to thinning of the glaciers and ice shelves. The highest rates of thinning are where relatively warm ocean currents can access the base of ice shelves through deep troughs[9,10]. Ice-shelf structure seems to be important, with sutures between tributary glaciers resulting in weaker areas of thinner ice, which are susceptible to rifting[11]. [...] Increased atmospheric temperatures lead to surface melting and ponding on the ice surface. Catastrophic ice-shelf collapsed tend to occur after a relatively warm summer season, with increased surface melting[12]. Based on the seasonality of ice shelf break up, and the geographic distribution of ice shelf collapse near the southerly-progressing -9°C isotherm, it appears that surface ponding is necessary for ice-shelf collapse[12]. This meltwater melts downwards into the ice shelf, causing fractures and leading to rapid ice-berg calving[5, 12]. Increased surface meltwater also leads to snow saturation, filling crevasses with water and increasing hydrostatic pressures. Brine infiltration can also cause crack over deepening. [...] With glaciers thinning, accelerating and receding in response to ice shelf collapse[20, 21], more ice is directly transported into the oceans, making a direct contribution to sea level rise. Sea level rise due to ice shelf collapse is as yet limited, but large ice shelves surrounding some of the major Antarctic glaciers could be at risk, and their collapse would result in a significant sea level rise contribution[22]. See Marine Ice Sheet Instability for more information.
Claim: "A third of Antarctic ice shelf risks collapse as our planet warms" (Amy Woodyatt, 2021-04-16)
Evidence (2005-01-01): At the other end of the Earth, around the South Pole, emperor penguins are also facing enormous threats from climate change, which causes profound changes in the Antarctic ecosystem and hurts penguins in diverse ways, from reducing prey species to causing ice shelves to collapse. Thanks to a petition and lawsuit by the Center, emperor penguins and other penguin species hailing from around the southern hemisphere are now protected under the Endangered Species Act.
Claim: "A third of Antarctic ice shelf risks collapse as our planet warms" (Amy Woodyatt, 2021-04-16)
Evidence (2017-02-09): A third of Antarctic ice shelf risks collapse at 4°C above pre-industrial levels, as accurately described in CNN article
Claim: You have a 0.03[%] chance of dying from [COVID-19] in the state of California. [...] it’s similar to the flu. (Daniel Erickson, Artin Massihi, 2020-04-22)
Evidence (2020-04-22): The doctors wrongly used the number of COVID-19 positive cases in ER patients to extrapolate the prevalence rate of COVID-19 in the population. This caused sampling bias that overestimates the number of infections in the general population and consequently underestimates the COVID-19 mortality rate. Their claim that sheltering in place would lead to a weaker immune system due to less contact with microorganisms is also inaccurate, as even home environments are already seeded with trillions of microbes.
Claim: You have a 0.03[%] chance of dying from [COVID-19] in the state of California. [...] it’s similar to the flu. (Daniel Erickson, Artin Massihi, 2020-04-22)
Evidence (2020-03-24): Coronavirus death rate: What are the chances of dying? The UK government's scientific advisers believe that the chances of dying from a coronavirus infection are between 0.5% and 1%. This is lower than the rate of death among confirmed cases - which is 4% globally in WHO figures and 5% in the UK as of March 23 - because not all infections are confirmed by testing.
Claim: You have a 0.03[%] chance of dying from [COVID-19] in the state of California. [...] it’s similar to the flu. (Daniel Erickson, Artin Massihi, 2020-04-22)
Evidence (2022-02-09): As of early December, unvaccinated adults were about 97 times more likely to die from COVID-19 than fully vaccinated people who had received boosters, according to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data. But a Twitter user falsely implied that the death rate for the unvaccinated included people who had only one or two doses of a vaccine. The CDC said "unvaccinated" means someone has "not been verified to have received COVID-19 vaccine." [...] Walensky, Feb. 2: Similar to what I showed you last week, vaccination and booster doses substantially decrease the risk of death from COVID-19. Looking at the data from the week ending Dec. 4, the number of average weekly deaths for those who are unvaccinated was 9.7 per 100,000 people, but only 0.7 per 100,000 people for those who were vaccinated. This means the risk of dying from COVID-19 was 14 times higher for people who were unvaccinated compared to those who received only a primary series.
Claim: You have a 0.03[%] chance of dying from [COVID-19] in the state of California. [...] it’s similar to the flu. (Daniel Erickson, Artin Massihi, 2020-04-22)
Evidence (2020-05-05): One of the primary scientific claims made by Erickson and Massihi is that COVID-19 is similar to the flu in terms of its spread and mortality. Pointing to data from COVID-19 testing in their clinics, Erickson said that they had conducted 5,213 tests and found 340 positive results, or approximately 6.5% positive results. He then extrapolated this percentage of positive results to estimate COVID-19 incidence in the entire population of the state of California, and concluded that "this equates to about 4.7 million cases throughout the state of California". With 1,227 COVID-19 deaths reported in California, this means that people "have a 0.03[%] chance of dying from [COVID-19] in the state of California," claimed Erickson. Flu mortality has been estimated at 0.1%. [...] Erickson and Massihi do make a few cogent points in the video, specifically concerns that people might wait too long to seek medical care out of fear of contracting COVID-19, which could lead to adverse health outcomes. In addition, they mention the economic and psychological impacts of sheltering in place. However, their use of biased data and poor statistics to claim that COVID-19 is similar to the flu and therefore of little concern makes the video’s main message inaccurate and misleading. These claims may cause individuals to fail to take proper measures to protect themselves and others from infection, undermining public health efforts to curb the spread of COVID-19.
Claim: You have a 0.03[%] chance of dying from [COVID-19] in the state of California. [...] it’s similar to the flu. (Daniel Erickson, Artin Massihi, 2020-04-22)
Evidence (2021-09-14): This Calculator Estimates Your Risk of Getting Covid-19 [...] The group decided to measure risk in a unit they named microCOVIDs: a one-in-one-million chance of becoming infected with Covid-19. The website defaults to budget 10,000 microCOVIDs per person per year, which works out to a 1 percent chance of contracting the virus, according to the site. [...] "The way we've posed the pandemic is that any venture outside your home is very risky, and anything inside is fine. And that, of course, is not exactly how life works," says Monica Gandhi, an infectious disease doctor at the University of California, San Francisco, who is not involved in the project. Gandhi uses similar risk calculators in her work to assess patients’ risk of contracting various illnesses and diseases. She appreciates the site’s user-friendly interface and explanations, so people can understand the factors that sway their risk estimates.