copenlu/druid huggingface dataset:
Claim: The cyclical activity of the Sun as well as other variations in solar and earth activity, and NOT anthropogenic CO2 emissions, are responsible for climate change (Social media user, 2023-09-18)
Evidence (2024-07-08): Greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and certain synthetic chemicals, trap some of the Earth's outgoing energy, thus retaining heat in the atmosphere. This heat trapping causes changes in the radiative balance of the Earth—the balance between energy received from the sun and emitted from Earth—that alter climate and weather patterns at global and regional scales. Multiple lines of evidence confirm that human activities are the primary cause of the global warming since the start of the 20th century.1 Natural factors, such as variations in the sun's output, volcanic activity, the Earth's orbit, the carbon cycle, and others, also affect Earth's radiative balance. However, beginning in the late 1700s, the net global effect of human activities has been a continual increase in greenhouse gas concentrations. [...] - Carbon dioxide is widely reported as the most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas because it currently accounts for the greatest portion of the warming associated with human activities. Carbon dioxide occurs naturally as part of the global carbon cycle, but human activities have increased atmospheric loadings through combustion of fossil fuels and other emissions sources. Natural sinks that remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere (e.g., oceans, plants) help regulate carbon dioxide concentrations, but human activities can disturb these processes (e.g., deforestation) or enhance them.
Claim: The cyclical activity of the Sun as well as other variations in solar and earth activity, and NOT anthropogenic CO2 emissions, are responsible for climate change (Social media user, 2023-09-18)
Evidence (2016-07-13): Since the Industrial Revolution began around 1750, human activities have contributed substantially to climate change by adding CO2 and other heat-trapping gases to the atmosphere. These greenhouse gas emissions have increased the greenhouse effect and caused Earth’s surface temperature to rise. The primary human activity affecting the amount and rate of climate change is greenhouse gas emissions from the burning of fossil fuels. [...] Carbon dioxide is the primary greenhouse gas that is contributing to recent climate change. CO2 is absorbed and emitted naturally as part of the carbon cycle, through plant and animal respiration, volcanic eruptions, and ocean-atmosphere exchange. Human activities, such as the burning of fossil fuels and changes in land use, release large amounts of CO2, causing concentrations in the atmosphere to rise. [...] Changes in solar energy continue to affect climate. However, over the last 11-year solar cycle, solar output has been lower than it has been since the mid-20th century, and therefore does not explain the recent warming of the earth.[2] Similarly, changes in the shape of Earth’s orbit as well as the tilt and position of Earth’s axis affect temperature on very long timescales (tens to hundreds of thousands of years), and therefore cannot explain the recent warming.
Claim: The cyclical activity of the Sun as well as other variations in solar and earth activity, and NOT anthropogenic CO2 emissions, are responsible for climate change (Social media user, 2023-09-18)
Evidence (2017-02-17): Over the course of Earth’s 4.5-billion-year history, the climate has changed a lot, this is true. However, the rapid warming we’re seeing now can't be explained by natural cycles of warming and cooling. The kind of changes that would normally happen over hundreds of thousands of years are happening in decades. [...] So, when people talk about climate change today, they mean anthropogenic (human-made) climate change. This is the warming of Earth’s average temperature as a result of human activity, such as burning coal, oil and gas to produce energy to fuel our homes and transport, and cutting down trees to produce the food we eat. You can read more about it here: How do we know climate change is real? [...] We’re already seeing the devastating effects of climate change on global food supplies, migration, conflict, disease and global instability, which will only get worse if we don’t act now. Human-made climate change is the biggest crisis of our time. It threatens the future of the planet that we depend on for our survival and we're the last generation that can do something about it.
Claim: The cyclical activity of the Sun as well as other variations in solar and earth activity, and NOT anthropogenic CO2 emissions, are responsible for climate change (Social media user, 2023-09-18)
Evidence (2021-04-15): The interconnections between these cycles used to make it hard to show that human-caused climate change was statistically significant and not just another lurch of natural variability. But anthropogenic climate change has since gone well beyond natural variability in weather and seasonal temperatures. The U.S. National Climate Assessment in 2017 concluded that there’s "no convincing evidence for natural cycles in the observational record that could explain the observed changes in climate." [...] Earth’s orbit wobbles as the sun, the moon and other planets change their relative positions. These cyclical wobbles, called Milankovitch cycles, cause the amount of sunlight to vary at middle latitudes by up to 25% and cause the climate to oscillate. These cycles have operated throughout time, yielding the alternating layers of sediment you see in cliffs and road cuts. [...] Today Earth is approaching another minimum of northern sunlight, so without human carbon dioxide emissions we would be heading into another ice age within the next 1,500 years or so.
Claim: The cyclical activity of the Sun as well as other variations in solar and earth activity, and NOT anthropogenic CO2 emissions, are responsible for climate change (Social media user, 2023-09-18)
Evidence (2022-01-31): However, the science on the human contribution to modern warming is quite clear. Humans emissions and activities have caused around 100% of the warming observed since 1950, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) fifth assessment report. [...] These conclusions have led to some confusion as to how more than 100% of observed warming could be attributable to human activity. A human contribution of greater than 100% is possible because natural climate change associated with volcanoes and solar activity would most likely have resulted in a slight cooling over the past 50 years, offsetting some of the warming associated with human activities. [...] Future radiative forcing from CO2 is expected to continue to increase if emissions rise. Aerosols, on the other hand, are projected to peak at today’s levels and decline significantly by 2100, driven in large part by concerns about air quality. This reduction in aerosols will enhance overall warming, bringing total warming from all radiative forcing closer to warming from greenhouse gases alone. The RCP scenarios assume no specific future volcanic eruptions, as the timing of these is unknowable, while solar output continues its 11-year cycle.
Claim: The cyclical activity of the Sun as well as other variations in solar and earth activity, and NOT anthropogenic CO2 emissions, are responsible for climate change (Social media user, 2023-09-18)
Evidence (2024-01-01): Fingerprinting is a powerful way of studying the causes of climate change. Different influences on climate lead to different patterns seen in climate records. This becomes obvious when scientists probe beyond changes in the average temperature of the planet and look more closely at geographical and temporal patterns of climate change. For example, an increase in the Sun’s energy output will lead to a very different pattern of temperature change (across Earth’s surface and vertically in the atmosphere) compared to that induced by an increase in CO2 concentration. Observed atmospheric temperature changes show a fingerprint much closer to that of a long-term CO2 increase than to that of a fluctuating Sun alone. Scientists routinely test whether purely natural changes in the Sun, volcanic activity, or internal climate variability could plausibly explain the patterns of change they have observed in many different aspects of the climate system. These analyses have shown that the observed climate changes of the past several decades cannot be explained just by natural factors.
Claim: The cyclical activity of the Sun as well as other variations in solar and earth activity, and NOT anthropogenic CO2 emissions, are responsible for climate change (Social media user, 2023-09-18)
Evidence (2023-03-04): Natural Causes of Climate Change The Milankovitch Theory explains the 3 cyclical changes in Earth’s orbit and tilt that cause the climate fluctuations that occur over tens of thousands of years to hundreds of thousands of years. You have learned about these orbital changes in the Temperature over Time module. These fluctuations include changes in the shape (eccentricity) of Earth’s orbit every ~100,000 years, the tilt (obliquity) of Earth’s axis every ~41,000 years, and the wobbling (precession) of Earth’s axis about ~23,000 years. Milankovitch proposed that glacial periods began when the three cycles align to favor an extended period of more solar radiation in the winter and less solar radiation in the summer at a latitude of 65°N. These conditions for the northern latitudes favor somewhat higher temperatures, but also more water vapor in the air – causing more snowfall. A relatively cool summer for the northern latitudes favors less melting of winter snow and glacier formation. [...] Variation in Solar Radiation
Claim: The cyclical activity of the Sun as well as other variations in solar and earth activity, and NOT anthropogenic CO2 emissions, are responsible for climate change (Social media user, 2023-09-18)
Evidence (2024-01-01): Natural processes on Earth constantly create and destroy GHGs. For example, plant and animal matter decay produce carbon dioxide, which plants then absorb during photosynthesis. This natural cycle stabilizes atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide. Climate change scientists at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and other federal and international agencies recognize that natural factors, including volcanic activity and shifts in the planet's crust, continue to play a role in climate change. However, they generally agree that these factors alone do not explain the substantial rise in Earth's temperature. Natural causes of climate change are referred to as naturogenic, while causes of climate change related to human activity are called anthropogenic. [...] Increased levels of other GHGs, such as nitrous oxide and methane, have also resulted from human activity. Several agricultural and industrial processes, such as the use of certain fertilizers in farming, produce extensive amounts nitrous oxide. Methane emissions come from fossil fuel production, landfills, and livestock. Though much smaller quantities of these gases exist in Earth's atmosphere, some scientists believe they cause more harm than carbon dioxide. Methane, for example, is about twenty-one times as potent as carbon dioxide at trapping heat. Humans have also created and released GHGs that do not occur in nature. These include hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6). These gases, released during industrial processes such as aluminum production and electrical transmission, trap thousands of times more heat in the atmosphere than carbon dioxide.
Claim: The cyclical activity of the Sun as well as other variations in solar and earth activity, and NOT anthropogenic CO2 emissions, are responsible for climate change (Social media user, 2023-09-18)
Evidence (2022-09-21): There are both natural and anthropogenic (human-generated) climate forcings that have the potential to explain the rise and fall of carbon dioxide (CO2) levels and global temperatures. To be clear right up top, it's human activities -- and not natural forcings -- that have resulted in the increased atmospheric greenhouse gas levels that are the real culprit behind the climate crisis. [...] Another natural forcing is the variation of solar activity. But the fact that Earth’s recent warming trend does not correspond to solar output or the amount of solar energy that reaches our planet, we know that the sun is not causing climate change. [...] Now that we know anthropogenic greenhouse gases are responsible, we need to do everything in our power to reduce that burden on the planet.
Claim: The cyclical activity of the Sun as well as other variations in solar and earth activity, and NOT anthropogenic CO2 emissions, are responsible for climate change (Social media user, 2023-09-18)
Evidence (2015-05-24): Climate as a common good 23. The climate is a common good, belonging to all and meant for all. At the global level, it is a complex system linked to many of the essential conditions for human life. A very solid scientific consensus indicates that we are presently witnessing a disturbing warming of the climatic system. In recent decades this warming has been accompanied by a constant rise in the sea level and, it would appear, by an increase of extreme weather events, even if a scientifically determinable cause cannot be assigned to each particular phenomenon. Humanity is called to recognize the need for changes of lifestyle, production and consumption, in order to combat this warming or at least the human causes which produce or aggravate it. It is true that there are other factors (such as volcanic activity, variations in the earth’s orbit and axis, the solar cycle), yet a number of scientific studies indicate that most global warming in recent decades is due to the great concentration of greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrogen oxides and others) released mainly as a result of human activity.
Claim: The cyclical activity of the Sun as well as other variations in solar and earth activity, and NOT anthropogenic CO2 emissions, are responsible for climate change (Social media user, 2023-09-18)
Evidence (2021-06-04): Geological records show that there have been a number of large variations in the Earth’s climate. These have been caused by many natural factors, including changes in the sun, emissions from volcanoes, variations in Earth’s orbit and levels of carbon dioxide (CO2). [...] According to Milankovitch’s theory, these three cycles combine to affect the amount of solar heat that reaches the Earth’s surface and subsequently influences climatic patterns, including periods of glaciation (ice ages). The time period between these changes can be tens of thousands of years (precession and axial tilt) or more than hundreds of thousands of years (eccentricity). [...] Each of these factors contributes to changes in the Earth’s climate, but the way they interact with each other makes it more complicated. A change in any one of these can lead to additional and enhanced or reduced changes in the others.
Claim: The cyclical activity of the Sun as well as other variations in solar and earth activity, and NOT anthropogenic CO2 emissions, are responsible for climate change (Social media user, 2023-09-18)
Evidence (2022-06-15): Earth's climate has changed throughout history. Just in the last 800,000 years, there have been eight cycles of ice ages and warmer periods, with the end of the last ice age about 11,700 years ago marking the beginning of the modern climate era — and of human civilization. Most of these climate changes are attributed to very small variations in Earth’s orbit that change the amount of solar energy our planet receives. [...] Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, the acidity of surface ocean waters has increased by about 30%.13, 14 This increase is due to humans emitting more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere and hence more being absorbed into the ocean. The ocean has absorbed between 20% and 30% of total anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions in recent decades (7.2 to 10.8 billion metric tons per year).15, 16 [...] In the 1860s, physicist John Tyndall recognized Earth's natural greenhouse effect and suggested that slight changes in the atmospheric composition could bring about climatic variations. In 1896, a seminal paper by Swedish scientist Svante Arrhenius first predicted that changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels could substantially alter the surface temperature through the greenhouse effect.
Claim: The cyclical activity of the Sun as well as other variations in solar and earth activity, and NOT anthropogenic CO2 emissions, are responsible for climate change (Social media user, 2023-09-18)
Evidence (2010-06-03): In Earth’s history before the Industrial Revolution, Earth’s climate changed due to natural causes not related to human activity. Most often, global climate has changed because of variations in sunlight. Tiny wobbles in Earth’s orbit altered when and where sunlight falls on Earth’s surface. Variations in the Sun itself have alternately increased and decreased the amount of solar energy reaching Earth. Volcanic eruptions have generated particles that reflect sunlight, brightening the planet and cooling the climate. Volcanic activity has also, in the deep past, increased greenhouse gases over millions of years, contributing to episodes of global warming. [...] These natural causes are still in play today, but their influence is too small or they occur too slowly to explain the rapid warming seen in recent decades. We know this because scientists closely monitor the natural and human activities that influence climate with a fleet of satellites and surface instruments. [...] Changes in the brightness of the Sun can influence the climate from decade to decade, but an increase in solar output falls short as an explanation for recent warming. NASA satellites have been measuring the Sun’s output since 1978. The total energy the Sun radiates varies over an 11-year cycle. During solar maxima, solar energy is approximately 0.1 percent higher on average than it is during solar minima.
Claim: The cyclical activity of the Sun as well as other variations in solar and earth activity, and NOT anthropogenic CO2 emissions, are responsible for climate change (Social media user, 2023-09-18)
Evidence (2017-04-04): Earth’s climate has changed naturally over the past 650,000 years, moving in and out of ice ages and warm periods. Changes in climate occur because of alterations in Earth’s energy balance, which result from some kind of external factor or "forcing"—an environmental factor that influences the climate. The ice ages and shifting climate were caused by a combination of changes in solar output, Earth’s orbit, ocean circulation, albedo (the reflectivity of the Earth’s surface) and makeup of the atmosphere (the amounts of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases such as water vapor, methane, nitrous oxide and ozone that are present). Scientists can track these earlier natural changes in climate by examining ice cores drilled from Greenland and Antarctica, which provide evidence about conditions as far back as 800,000 years ago. The ice cores have shown that rising CO2 levels and rising temperatures are closely linked. [...] Here is how scientists know that the climate change we are experiencing is mainly due to human activity and not a result of natural phenomenon.
Claim: The cyclical activity of the Sun as well as other variations in solar and earth activity, and NOT anthropogenic CO2 emissions, are responsible for climate change (Social media user, 2023-09-18)
Evidence (2010-06-03): In Earth’s history before the Industrial Revolution, Earth’s climate changed due to natural causes unrelated to human activity. These natural causes are still in play today, but their influence is too small or they occur too slowly to explain the rapid warming seen in recent decades. [...] In Earth’s history before the Industrial Revolution, Earth’s climate changed due to natural causes not related to human activity. Most often, global climate has changed because of variations in sunlight. Tiny wobbles in Earth’s orbit altered when and where sunlight falls on Earth’s surface. Variations in the Sun itself have alternately increased and decreased the amount of solar energy reaching Earth. Volcanic eruptions have generated particles that reflect sunlight, brightening the planet and cooling the climate. Volcanic activity has also, in the deep past, increased greenhouse gases over millions of years, contributing to episodes of global warming. [...] These natural causes are still in play today, but their influence is too small or they occur too slowly to explain the rapid warming seen in recent decades. We know this because scientists closely monitor the natural and human activities that influence climate with a fleet of satellites and surface instruments.
Claim: The cyclical activity of the Sun as well as other variations in solar and earth activity, and NOT anthropogenic CO2 emissions, are responsible for climate change (Social media user, 2023-09-18)
Evidence (2024-01-01): Since it is the Sun's energy that drives the weather system, scientists naturally wondered whether they might connect climate changes with solar variations. Yet the Sun seemed to be stable over the timescale of human civilization. Attempts to discover cyclic variations in weather and connect them with the 11-year sunspot cycle, or other possible solar cycles ranging up to a few centuries long, gave results that were ambiguous at best. These attempts got a well-deserved bad reputation. Jack Eddy overcame this with a 1976 study that demonstrated that irregular variations in solar surface activity, a few centuries long, were connected with major climate shifts. The mechanism was uncertain, but plausible candidates emerged. The next crucial question was whether a rise in the Sun's activity could explain the global warming seen in the 20th century? By the 1990s, there was a tentative answer: minor solar variations could indeed have been partly responsible for some past fluctuations... but future warming from the rise in greenhouse gases far outweighed any solar effects.(1)
Claim: The cyclical activity of the Sun as well as other variations in solar and earth activity, and NOT anthropogenic CO2 emissions, are responsible for climate change (Social media user, 2023-09-18)
Evidence (2016-07-08): The five physical components (atmosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, lithosphere, and biosphere) that are responsible for the climate and its variations. [3] [...] Trapping and build-up of heat in the atmosphere (troposphere) near the Earths surface. Some of the heat flowing back toward space from the Earth's surface is absorbed by water vapor, carbon dioxide, ozone, and several other gases in the atmosphere and then reradiated back toward the Earths surface. If the atmospheric concentrations of these greenhouse gases rise, the average temperature of the lower atmosphere will gradually increase. See greenhouse gas, anthropogenic, climate, global warming. [4] [...] Variations in the mean state and other statistics (such as standard deviations or statistics of extremes) of the climate on all time and space scales beyond that of individual weather events. Natural variations in climate over time are caused by internal processes of the climate system, such as El Niño as well as changes in external influences, such as volcanic activity and variations in the output of the sun. [8] [13]