copenlu/druid huggingface dataset:
Claim: there is no relationship between temperature and carbon dioxide emissions by humans[...] carbon dioxide has had a minuscule effect on global climate (Ian Plimer, 2018-08-07)
Evidence (2022-11-16): In the late 19th century, the scientist (and suffragette) Eunice Newton Foote published a paper suggesting that a build-up of carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere could cause increased surface temperatures1. In the mid-20th century, the British engineer Guy Callendar was the first to concretize the link between carbon dioxide levels and global warming2. Now, a century and a half after Foote’s work, there is overwhelming scientific evidence that human behaviour is the main driver of climatic changes and global warming. [...] In the light of the empirical evidence for the role of human behaviour in climatic changes, it is curious that the ‘human factor’ has not always received much attention in key research areas, such as climate modelling. For a long time, climate models to predict global warming and emissions did not account for it. This oversight meant that predictions made by these models have differed greatly in their projected rise in temperatures8,9. [...] Natural disasters have become more frequent and occur at ever-closer intervals. The changing climate is driving biodiversity loss, and affecting human physical and mental health. Unfortunately, the conversations about climate change mitigation are often dominated by Global North and ‘WEIRD’ (Western, educated, industrialized, rich and democratic) perspectives, neglecting the views of countries in the Global South. In a Correspondence, Charles Ogunbode reminds us that climate justice is social justice in the Global South and that, while being a minor contributor to emissions and global warming, this region has to bear many of the consequences.
Claim: there is no relationship between temperature and carbon dioxide emissions by humans[...] carbon dioxide has had a minuscule effect on global climate (Ian Plimer, 2018-08-07)
Evidence (2018-03-27): An updated review about carbon dioxide and climate change [...] This manuscript will review the essence of the role of CO2 in the Earth’s atmosphere. The logic of CO2 involvement in changing the climate will be investigated from every perspective: reviewing the historical data record, examining in further detail the twentieth-century data record, and evaluating the radiation role of CO2 in the atmosphere—calculating and integrating the Schwarzschild radiation equation with a full complement of CO2 absorption coefficients. A review of the new theory of climate change—due to the Sun’s magnetic field interacting with cosmic rays, is provided. The application of this new theory is applied to climate-change events within the latter part of the Earth’s interglacial period. The application to the Earth’s Ice Ages is not detailed here due to manuscript size constraints, but is referenced for the reader. The results of this review point to the extreme value of CO2 to all life forms, but no role of CO2 in any significant change of the Earth’s climate. [...] Fleming, R.J. An updated review about carbon dioxide and climate change.
Claim: there is no relationship between temperature and carbon dioxide emissions by humans[...] carbon dioxide has had a minuscule effect on global climate (Ian Plimer, 2018-08-07)
Evidence (2023-08-15): Carbon dioxide (CO2) is an important heat-trapping gas, also known as a greenhouse gas, that comes from the extraction and burning of fossil fuels (such as coal, oil, and natural gas), from wildfires, and natural processes like volcanic eruptions. The first graph shows atmospheric CO2 levels measured by NOAA at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii, since 1958. The second graph shows CO2 levels during Earth’s last three glacial cycles, as captured by air bubbles trapped in ice sheets and glaciers. Since the onset of industrial times in the 18th century, human activities have raised atmospheric CO2 by 50% – meaning the amount of CO2 is now 150% of its value in 1750. This human-induced rise is greater than the natural increase observed at the end of the last ice age 20,000 years ago. The animated map shows how the historical changes in global carbon dioxide over time. Note the colors change as the amount of CO2 rises from 365 parts per million (ppm) in 2002 to over 420 ppm currently. It's important to understand that "parts per million" refers to the number of carbon dioxide molecules per million molecules of dry air. These measurements are from the mid-troposphere, the layer of Earth's atmosphere that is 8 to 12 kilometers (about 5 to 7 miles) above the ground. This data provides insights into the significant rise in atmospheric CO2 concentrations, highlighting the impact of human activities on Earth's climate.
Claim: there is no relationship between temperature and carbon dioxide emissions by humans[...] carbon dioxide has had a minuscule effect on global climate (Ian Plimer, 2018-08-07)
Evidence (2019-07-02): The relationship between atmospheric CO2 levels and climate change is often perceived as a controversial subject. While there’s no real disagreement among climate scientists – around 90% fully agree that human activity is clearly responsible for climate change – in the United States in 2016, barely 50% of the general public came to the same conclusion. Adding to the general confusion, highly active "climate-change deniers" claim that temperature has evolved independently of CO2 atmospheric concentrations through Earth’s history, and that therefore today’s rising CO2 levels are not an issue. [...] Using rocks, fossils and their chemical and physical properties, geoscientists have reconstructed warm and cold periods throughout Earth’s history. To demonstrate the link between climate, temperature and pCO2 millions of years ago, we need to reconstruct each of them independently. To do so, we use climatic recorders called "proxies". [...] On long time scales, when pCO2 increases, warming stimulates the carbon pumps, thereby helping pCO2 to decrease. This negative feedback can act as a geological thermostat. Unfortunately, it is too slow to react rapidly enough to compensate for our fast emissions. On the timescale of a decade, warming aggravates CO2 release to the atmosphere. When temperature increases, oceans warm up and release dissolved CO2 to the atmosphere. For 2.6 million years, glacial and interglacial cycles have been forced by Earth’s orbital fluctuations and CO2 was only an internal positive feedback. Today, anthropogenic CO2 leads and amplifies the ongoing warming.
Claim: there is no relationship between temperature and carbon dioxide emissions by humans[...] carbon dioxide has had a minuscule effect on global climate (Ian Plimer, 2018-08-07)
Evidence (2017-03-10): The conclusion rests on basic physics known since the 19th century, when physical scientists first recognized that carbon dioxide, then a recently discovered gas, could act as a sort of greenhouse, preventing heat introduced by the Sun from escaping back as thermal radiation into space—the "greenhouse effect." The heat trapped by carbon dioxide warms our oceans and atmosphere. This effect is what enables life on this planet, keeping Earth at a livable global temperature. But changes in the concentrations of these gases change the amount of heat that remains here. [...] Ice cores tell us that the atmosphere’s carbon dioxide levels have stayed between 170 and 300 parts per million for the last 800,000 years, and any shifts took millennia to happen. But since about 1750, the start of the Industrial age, the level has ascended from 280 to more than 400 parts per million. The rise in carbon dioxide matches well with the curve of known human emissions. And these two curves match very well with the increase in temperature. The overwhelming evidence shows that carbon dioxide emissions are the dominant factor driving climate change.
Claim: there is no relationship between temperature and carbon dioxide emissions by humans[...] carbon dioxide has had a minuscule effect on global climate (Ian Plimer, 2018-08-07)
Evidence (2023-12-07): "We have long known that adding CO2 to our atmosphere raises the temperature," said Bärbel Hönisch, a geochemist at Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, who coordinated the consortium. "This study gives us a much more robust idea of how sensitive the climate is over long time scales." [...] The new study, covering the so-called Cenozoic era, does not radically revise the generally accepted relationship between CO2 and temperature, but it does strengthen the understanding of certain time periods, and refines measurements of others. The most distant period, from about 66 million to 56 million years ago, has been something of an enigma, because the Earth was largely ice free, yet some studies had suggested CO2 concentrations were relatively low. This cast some doubt on the relationship between CO2 and temperature. However once the consortium excluded estimates they deemed the least dependable, they determined that CO2 was actually quite high—around 600 to 700 parts per million, comparable to what could be reached by the end of this century.
Claim: there is no relationship between temperature and carbon dioxide emissions by humans[...] carbon dioxide has had a minuscule effect on global climate (Ian Plimer, 2018-08-07)
Evidence (2020-10-29): Yes, by increasing the abundance of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, human activities are amplifying Earth’s natural greenhouse effect. Virtually all climate scientists agree that this increase in heat-trapping gases is the main reason for the 1.8°F (1.0°C) rise in global average temperature since the late nineteenth century. Carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, ozone, and various chlorofluorocarbons are all human-emitted heat-trapping gases. Among these, carbon dioxide is of greatest concern to scientists because it exerts a larger overall warming influence than the other gases combined. At present, humans are putting an estimated 9.5 billion metric tons of carbon into the atmosphere each year by burning fossil fuels, and another 1.5 billion through deforestation and other land cover changes. Of this human-produced carbon, forests and other vegetation absorb around 3.2 billion metric tons per year, while the ocean absorbs about 2.5 billion metric tons per year. A net 5 billion metric tons of human-produced carbon remain in the atmosphere each year, raising the global average carbon dioxide concentrations by about 2.3 parts per million per year. Since 1750, humans have increased the abundance of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere by nearly 50 percent. Learn more.
Claim: there is no relationship between temperature and carbon dioxide emissions by humans[...] carbon dioxide has had a minuscule effect on global climate (Ian Plimer, 2018-08-07)
Evidence (2023-12-28): Human emissions of greenhouse gases are the primary driver of climate change today.1 CO2 and other greenhouse gases like methane and nitrous oxide are emitted when we burn fossil fuels, produce materials such as steel, cement, and plastics, and grow the food we eat. If we want to reduce these emissions, we need to transform our energy systems, industries, and food systems. [...] Lacis, A. A., Schmidt, G. A., Rind, D., & Ruedy, R. A. (2010). Atmospheric CO₂: Principal control knob governing Earth’s temperature. Science, 330(6002), 356-359.
Claim: there is no relationship between temperature and carbon dioxide emissions by humans[...] carbon dioxide has had a minuscule effect on global climate (Ian Plimer, 2018-08-07)
Evidence (2016-02-22): Using the IF concept we were able to confirm the inherent one-way causality between human activities and global warming, as during the last 150 years the increasing anthropogenic radiative forcing is driving the increasing global temperature, a result that cannot be inferred from traditional time delayed correlation or ordinary least square regression analysis. Natural forcing (solar forcing and volcanic activities) contributes only marginally to the global temperature dynamics during the last 150 years. Human influence, especially via CO2 radiative forcing, has been detected to be significant since about the 1960s. This provides an independent statistical confirmation of the results from process based modelling studies. Investigation of the temperature simulations from the CMIP5 ensemble is largely in agreement with the conclusion drawn from the observational data. However on very long time scales (800,000 years) the IF is only significant in the direction from air temperature to CO2. This supports the idea that the feedback of GHGs to temperature changes seems to be much slower than the fast response of temperature to changes in GHGs48. [...] How to cite this article: Stips, A. et al. On the causal structure between CO2 and global temperature. Sci. Rep.6, 21691; doi: 10.1038/srep21691 (2016).
Claim: there is no relationship between temperature and carbon dioxide emissions by humans[...] carbon dioxide has had a minuscule effect on global climate (Ian Plimer, 2018-08-07)
Evidence (2012-01-01): There is abundant evidence from bubbles of air trapped in ice cores in Antarctica that the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide (CO 2) changed in parallel with temperature over the past 800,000 years, and that other greenhouses gases like methane (CH 4) and nitrous oxide (N 2O) did too, as shown in the diagram below (Figure 1). There is in geological terms a slight (a few centuries) lag between the beginning of each rise in temperature and the beginning of the associated rise in CO 2. That is explained as follows: (i) the amount of solar radiation received at the Earth's surface varies regularly and predictably due to slight periodic changes in the Earth's orbit around the sun; (ii) as the oceans warm and sea ice melts at the end of cold periods, ocean circulation and the density structure of the ocean change; (iii) this process brings more CO 2-rich deep water to the surface, causing the atmosphere to become richer in CO 2; (iv) more CO 2 in the atmosphere traps infrared radiation emitted from the Earth's surface, heating the atmosphere and rising the temperature further, and so on.
Claim: there is no relationship between temperature and carbon dioxide emissions by humans[...] carbon dioxide has had a minuscule effect on global climate (Ian Plimer, 2018-08-07)
Evidence (2018-12-01): Human influence has not affected the principal tropical modes of interannual climate variability or their associated regional teleconnections beyond the range of internal variability (high confidence). Further assessment since AR5 confirms that climate and Earth system models are able to reproduce most aspects of the spatial structure and variance of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Basin and Dipole modes (medium confidence). However, despite a slight improvement in CMIP6, some underlying processes are still poorly represented. In the Tropical Atlantic basin, which contains the Atlantic Zonal and Meridional modes, major biases in modelled mean state and variability remain. {3.7.3 to 3.7.5} [...] Jung, M. et al., 2017: Compensatory water effects link yearly global land CO2 sink changes to temperature. Nature, 541(7638), 516–520, doi: 10.1038/nature20780. [...] Notz, D. and J. Stroeve, 2016: Observed Arctic sea-ice loss directly follows anthropogenic CO2 emission. Science, 354(6313), 747–750, doi: 10.1126/science.aag2345.
Claim: there is no relationship between temperature and carbon dioxide emissions by humans[...] carbon dioxide has had a minuscule effect on global climate (Ian Plimer, 2018-08-07)
Evidence (2021-10-25): Greenhouse gases - which trap the Sun's heat - are the crucial link between temperature rise and human activities. The most important is carbon dioxide (CO2), because of its abundance in the atmosphere. [...] Computer simulations, known as climate models, have been used to show what would have happened to temperatures without the massive amounts of greenhouse gases released by humans. They reveal there would have been little global warming - and possibly some cooling - over the 20th and 21st Centuries, if only natural factors had been influencing the climate.
Claim: there is no relationship between temperature and carbon dioxide emissions by humans[...] carbon dioxide has had a minuscule effect on global climate (Ian Plimer, 2018-08-07)
Evidence (2022-06-15): Ice cores drawn from Greenland, Antarctica, and tropical mountain glaciers show that Earth’s climate responds to changes in greenhouse gas levels. Ancient evidence can also be found in tree rings, ocean sediments, coral reefs, and layers of sedimentary rocks. This ancient, or paleoclimate, evidence reveals that current warming is occurring roughly 10 times faster than the average rate of warming after an ice age. Carbon dioxide from human activities is increasing about 250 times faster than it did from natural sources after the last Ice Age.3 [...] The planet's average surface temperature has risen about 2 degrees Fahrenheit (1 degrees Celsius) since the late 19th century, a change driven largely by increased carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere and other human activities.4 Most of the warming occurred in the past 40 years, with the seven most recent years being the warmest. The years 2016 and 2020 are tied for the warmest year on record.5 [...] In 1938, Guy Callendar connected carbon dioxide increases in Earth’s atmosphere to global warming. In 1941, Milutin Milankovic linked ice ages to Earth’s orbital characteristics. Gilbert Plass formulated the Carbon Dioxide Theory of Climate Change in 1956.
Claim: there is no relationship between temperature and carbon dioxide emissions by humans[...] carbon dioxide has had a minuscule effect on global climate (Ian Plimer, 2018-08-07)
Evidence (2024-04-09): Carbon dioxide is Earth’s most important greenhouse gas: a gas that absorbs and radiates heat. Unlike oxygen or nitrogen (which make up most of our atmosphere), greenhouse gases absorb heat radiating from the Earth’s surface and re-release it in all directions—including back toward Earth’s surface. Without carbon dioxide, Earth’s natural greenhouse effect would be too weak to keep the average global surface temperature above freezing. By adding more carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, people are supercharging the natural greenhouse effect, causing global temperature to rise. According to observations by the NOAA Global Monitoring Lab, in 2021 carbon dioxide alone was responsible for about two-thirds of the total heating influence of all human-produced greenhouse gases. [...] Natural increases in carbon dioxide concentrations have periodically warmed Earth’s temperature during ice age cycles over the past million years or more. The warm episodes (interglacials) began with a small increase in incoming sunlight in the Northern Hemisphere due to variations in Earth’s orbit around the Sun and its axis of rotation. (For more details, see the "Milankovitch cycles and ice ages" section of our Climate change: incoming sunlight article.) That little bit of extra sunlight caused a little bit of warming. As the oceans warmed, they outgassed carbon dioxide—like a can of soda going flat in the heat of a summer day. The extra carbon dioxide in the atmosphere greatly amplified the initial, solar-driven warming.
Claim: there is no relationship between temperature and carbon dioxide emissions by humans[...] carbon dioxide has had a minuscule effect on global climate (Ian Plimer, 2018-08-07)
Evidence (2019-07-30): Earth absorbs energy from sunlight, but as the surface warms, it also emits energy in the form of infrared radiation (which we know of as heat) out into space. Water vapor and CO2, however, act like a cap, making it more difficult for Earth to get rid of this energy. Without gases like these to absorb the energy, our planet’s average surface temperature would have been near zero degrees Fahrenheit. [...] The burning of fossil fuels affects the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere. Before the industrial revolution, the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere was about 288 ppm. We have now reached about 414 ppm, so we are on the way to doubling the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere by the end of this century. Scientists say that if CO2 doubles, it could raise the average global temperature of the Earth between two and five degrees Celsius. We are already increasing the amount of energy that bounces back to the Earth. Because of the greenhouse effect, this is causing global warming with its many destructive impacts. Both water vapor and CO2 are responsible for global warming, and once we increase the CO2 in the atmosphere, the oceans warm up, which inevitably triggers an increase in water vapor. But while we have no way to control water vapor, we can control CO2. And because we are increasing the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere by continuing to burn fossil fuels, even in relatively small amounts compared to the entire mass of the atmosphere, we are disturbing the entire heat balance of the planet.
Claim: there is no relationship between temperature and carbon dioxide emissions by humans[...] carbon dioxide has had a minuscule effect on global climate (Ian Plimer, 2018-08-07)
Evidence (2011-03-06): - Increasing greenhouse gas emissions from human activity act like a blanket wrapped around the earth, trapping the sun’s heat and raising temperatures. [...] - Every increase in global warming matters. In a 2018 report, thousands of scientists and government reviewers agreed that limiting global temperature rise to no more than 1.5°C would help us avoid the worst climate impacts and maintain a livable climate. Yet the current path of carbon dioxide emissions could increase global temperature by as much as 4.4°C by the end of the century. [...] - Due to climate change, the ocean is warmer, more acidic and less productive today. The ocean has absorbed between 20 to 30 per cent of human-induced carbon dioxide emissions since the 1980s, exacerbating acidification. (IPCC)
Claim: there is no relationship between temperature and carbon dioxide emissions by humans[...] carbon dioxide has had a minuscule effect on global climate (Ian Plimer, 2018-08-07)
Evidence (2015-06-23): The questions this endeavor raises are foundational, even though the parts per million of atmospheric carbon dioxide seem so minuscule and the predicted temperature increases don’t seem, in a daily context, to be so daunting. And yet. Just what is the sweet spot for the Earth’s global average temperature—or, rather, the temperature we want the Earth to have? Keep the warming to about a 2°C rise? Should the parts per million (ppm) of atmospheric CO2 be 350? 450? We’re already pushing 400 ppm. At 450 we might avoid warming the planet above the 2°C mark. But that’s a 50-50 proposition if we rely solely on reducing emissions, according to Tom Wigley of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, and, he says, "any pathway to 450 looks rather optimistic." The Royal Society says that "it seems increasingly likely that concentrations will exceed 500 ppm by mid-century and may approach 1000 ppm by 2100." Such levels could lead to civilization-ending global warming.
Claim: there is no relationship between temperature and carbon dioxide emissions by humans[...] carbon dioxide has had a minuscule effect on global climate (Ian Plimer, 2018-08-07)
Evidence (2021-01-20): Ian Plimer wrongly claims that carbon dioxide emissions do not cause climate change