copenlu/druid huggingface dataset:
Claim: The Trump administration “achieved the lowest African American unemployment rate and the lowest African American poverty rate ever recorded.” (Donald Trump, 2024-06-15)
Evidence (2020-10-22): Trump Campaign Press Release - FACT: President Trump's Policies Have Delivered For Black Americans Since his inauguration, President Trump has championed policies that have revitalized the Black community, creating a more inclusive economy for Black Americans, providing historic funding for our Historical Black Colleges and Universities, expanding school choice, and giving more Black Americans a chance to achieve the American Dream. [...] Black poverty reached a historic low in 2019.
Claim: The Trump administration “achieved the lowest African American unemployment rate and the lowest African American poverty rate ever recorded.” (Donald Trump, 2024-06-15)
Evidence (2023-04-07): The unemployment rate is even lower than during the years when then President Trump often took credit for the Black unemployment rate hitting a record low during his term, according to data by the Bureau of Labor Statistics going back to 1972. [...] The unemployment rate for African Americans in March fell to the lowest ever recorded in U.S. history. [...] The Black unemployment rate plunged to 5% last month, the lowest level in data going back to the early 1970s. It's still 1.8 percentage points above the rate for White Americans — which was unchanged at 3.2% in March — but that gap is the smallest ever.
Claim: The Trump administration “achieved the lowest African American unemployment rate and the lowest African American poverty rate ever recorded.” (Donald Trump, 2024-06-15)
Evidence (2024-05-09): Republican Sen. Tim Scott has claimed that African Americans, Hispanics and Asians all had their lowest unemployment rate under former President Donald Trump. But the lowest unemployment rate on record for African Americans was under President Joe Biden, and the lowest unemployment rate for Hispanics was the same under both presidents. [...] "We were just better off under President Trump," began Scott, who is considered to be a potential vice presidential running mate for Trump. "Inflation, Kristen, was at 2%, and we had the lowest unemployment rates for African Americans, for Hispanics, for Asians, a 70-year low for women." [...] Under Trump, the unemployment rate for African Americans went down to 5.3% in August 2019 – at that time, the lowest rate on record, according to BLS data going back to 1972. When Trump left office in January 2021, amid the pandemic, the rate was 9.3%.
Claim: The Trump administration “achieved the lowest African American unemployment rate and the lowest African American poverty rate ever recorded.” (Donald Trump, 2024-06-15)
Evidence (2020-11-03): Prior to the pandemic, President Trump claims to have delivered the lowest unemployment rate in half a century. [...] President Trump claimed in 2019 that he had delivered "the largest poverty reduction under any president in history". [...] The continued strength of the economy under President Trump (at least until the pandemic hit) has been matched by a continuing fall in the poverty rate.
Claim: The Trump administration “achieved the lowest African American unemployment rate and the lowest African American poverty rate ever recorded.” (Donald Trump, 2024-06-15)
Evidence (2021-01-01): - Unemployment rates for African Americans, Hispanic Americans, Asian Americans, Native Americans, veterans, individuals with disabilities, and those without a high school diploma all reached record lows. [...] - Poverty rates for African Americans and Hispanic Americans reached record lows. [...] - Under the previous administration, it took 49 months for the unemployment rate to fall from 10 percent to under 7 percent compared to just 3 months for the Trump Administration.
Claim: The Trump administration “achieved the lowest African American unemployment rate and the lowest African American poverty rate ever recorded.” (Donald Trump, 2024-06-15)
Evidence (2024-06-24): During a June 15 visit to Detroit, Trump said, "We achieved the lowest African American unemployment rate and the lowest African American poverty rate ever recorded." [...] The Black poverty rate hit a record low during Trump’s presidency in 2019 at 18.8%. The poverty rate has fallen further under Biden’s presidency, hitting 17.1% in 2022, the last year for which data is available. [...] Because the Black poverty rate has generally been trending down since the 1960s, numerous other presidents can claim to have achieved record lows on Black poverty during their tenure — including Richard Nixon, Gerald Ford, Bill Clinton, Obama, Trump and Biden.
Claim: The Trump administration “achieved the lowest African American unemployment rate and the lowest African American poverty rate ever recorded.” (Donald Trump, 2024-06-15)
Evidence (1997-05-19): President Clinton's Record on Rewarding Work: In 1992, unemployment reached 7.5 percent, the highest level in eight years. Unemployment and poverty rates for African Americans and Hispanics were alarming: unemployment reached 14.2 percent for African Americans and 11.8 percent for Hispanics, and poverty rates for both groups were nearly 30 percent. But today:
Claim: The Trump administration “achieved the lowest African American unemployment rate and the lowest African American poverty rate ever recorded.” (Donald Trump, 2024-06-15)
Evidence (2023-09-12): The official poverty rate of the U.S. Black population reached a historic low of 17.1% in 2022, according to U.S. Census Bureau data released today. The 2022 poverty rate for the Black population fell to a record low even after accounting for survey and methodological changes to the CPS ASEC, the Census Bureau’s longest-running survey. [...] The 2022 official poverty rate for Black adults ages 18 to 64 was 14.9%, numerically a historic low (though not statistically different from 2019). The official poverty rate for Black adults 65 and older was 17.6%, not statistically different from 2021.
Claim: The Trump administration “achieved the lowest African American unemployment rate and the lowest African American poverty rate ever recorded.” (Donald Trump, 2024-06-15)
Evidence (2024-02-06): Over the past three years, President Biden and Vice President Harris have leveraged the full force of the Federal Government to advance racial justice and equity and ensure the promise of America for all communities, including Black Americans, across the country. With the support of these efforts, Black Americans are starting new businesses, creating jobs, buying homes, and taking advantage of increased education opportunities at historic rates—contributing to a 60% increase in wealth compared to before the pandemic. And this boom in wealth creation following the pandemic is helping to drive a historically equitable economic recovery. From promoting entrepreneurship to increasing access to homeownership and delivering the lowest Black unemployment rate, from proving it’s possible to reduce child poverty to historic lows to expanding access to quality affordable healthcare, from advancing voting rights and police accountability to ensuring equal access to a high-quality education with historic funding for Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCUs), President Biden and Vice President Harris are committed to investing in the future of Black communities. [...] - Powered a historic economic recovery that created 2.6 million jobs for Black workers—and achieved both the lowest Black unemployment rate on record and the lowest gap between Black and White unemployment on record. [...] - Achieved the fastest creation rate of Black-owned businesses in more than 30 years—and more than doubled the share of Black business owners from 2019 to 2022.
Claim: The Trump administration “achieved the lowest African American unemployment rate and the lowest African American poverty rate ever recorded.” (Donald Trump, 2024-06-15)
Evidence (2024-06-26): Both metrics did reach record lows under Trump, but then went on to surpass those record lows under Biden. So we rated this Trump claim Half True. [...] Although the coronavirus pandemic skewed some economic statistics, we generally found that Black Americans fared well by historical standards during Donald Trump’s presidency. Still, they have fared even better under President Joe Biden. [...] Setting aside the coronavirus pandemic’s swift, severe disruptions, both Trump and Biden had relatively low Black unemployment rates during their presidencies. But the rates under Biden have been lower.
Claim: Crime statistics “no longer include data from 30% of the country including the biggest and most violent cities.” (Donald Trump, 2024-06-18)
Evidence (2024-06-18): In 2021, the FBI required police departments to report data using a new system. That year, data for about 65% of the U.S. population was covered in the FBI’s annual report, rather than the typical 95%. However, as is standard FBI policy, the missing data was estimated using comparable jurisdictions. In 2022, the FBI’s data coverage returned to 94% of the population, and the preliminary numbers for 2023 and 2024 signal that that level of police department participation should continue. The FBI data’s trend lines have generally tracked the patterns in data compiled by other groups — groups that were not affected by the FBI’s methodological switch.
Claim: Crime statistics “no longer include data from 30% of the country including the biggest and most violent cities.” (Donald Trump, 2024-06-18)
Evidence (2024-09-13): FBI Releases 2023 Crime in the Nation Statistics [...] The FBI’s crime statistics estimates, based on reported data for 2023, show that national violent crime decreased an estimated 3.0% in 2023 compared to 2022 estimates:
Claim: Crime statistics “no longer include data from 30% of the country including the biggest and most violent cities.” (Donald Trump, 2024-06-18)
Evidence (2024-02-01): Cities across the country are seeing the number of violent crimes drop. Yet, Americans feel less safe. We speak with three reporters on what's actually happening in their cities. For people in the U.S., 2020 was one of the most dangerous years in decades. The first year of the pandemic saw a huge spike in violence. The number of homicides in the country rose about 30% from 2019.
Claim: Crime statistics “no longer include data from 30% of the country including the biggest and most violent cities.” (Donald Trump, 2024-06-18)
Evidence (2023-08-25): In recent years, headlines have warned of a nationwide spike in crime. Crime data compiled by the Federal Bureau of Investigation revealed a nearly 30% nationwide increase in reported homicides between 2019 and 2020, the single largest year-over-year increase on record. More recent data, albeit incomplete, suggests that the homicide rate in 2023 is on track for the largest year-over-year decline on record. This is hopefully an indicator that the increase in crime isn’t a long-term trend. [...] Second, and perhaps more troubling, the nation lacks a timely source of quality crime statistics. The FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) program is one of the two primary sources of national crime statistics heavily relied upon by journalists, academics, and policy experts. The UCR enables state and local law enforcement agencies to voluntarily submit their crime data to the FBI. Counts of crimes recorded and submitted by law enforcement agencies are then weighted to account for incomplete reporting. Typically, the FBI releases year-end reports covering the previous year; for instance, the crime statistics for 2020 were released in September 2021. This delay in publication, while likely necessary for ensuring accuracy, means we lack a real-time picture of crime at the national level.
Claim: Crime statistics “no longer include data from 30% of the country including the biggest and most violent cities.” (Donald Trump, 2024-06-18)
Evidence (2023-08-10): Tracking crime statistics – and more importantly, whether or not crime is rising or falling in the United States – is getting harder to do. That’s because nearly a third of America’s cities are no longer reporting crime statistics to the FBI. This is more than just a problem for policymakers looking for data to address the cities most in need of assistance. It also means that some policymakers are demanding bad policy because they’re relying on incomplete data. The Marshall Project reported that 31 percent of the 18,000 law enforcement agencies across the U.S. failed to report crime data to the FBI’s national database after transitioning to a new data collection system, according to the latest statistics from the FBI. That’s a slight improvement from 2021, when 40 percent of law enforcement agencies didn’t report crime data. Still, it’s a glaring blind spot, especially when that data is missing from some of the largest metro areas dealing with rampant, out-of-control crime.
Claim: Crime statistics “no longer include data from 30% of the country including the biggest and most violent cities.” (Donald Trump, 2024-06-18)
Evidence (2023-11-03): Murders are a good measurement for the most serious violent crimes, partially because they are almost always reported to police. According to the FBI’s crime statistics, the number of murders dropped by 6.1% from 2021 to 2022, but is still higher than where it was prior to the pandemic. [...] In 2021, the FBI changed how it collects data from police departments, and as a result, that year’s crime data missed nearly 40% of police agencies. Bureau analysts estimated the missing data with statistical modeling, but the change led to the most incomplete picture of national crime since the FBI began collecting data in the 1930s, which created confusion on how crime trends changed. Last year, the FBI reversed the change and revived the previously-retired data collection system. They also gave agencies that didn’t submit data for 2021 a chance to submit their data retrospectively. Nearly 2,500 agencies took the FBI’s offer and submitted crime data through the old system for 2022, but it’s unclear how many did for 2021. [...] While the FBI continues trying to improve the national crime statistics, most property and violent crimes are not reported to the police, the victimization survey shows.
Claim: Crime statistics “no longer include data from 30% of the country including the biggest and most violent cities.” (Donald Trump, 2024-06-18)
Evidence (2024-04-24): It’s difficult to say for certain. The two primary sources of government crime statistics – the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) – paint an incomplete picture. The FBI publishes annual data on crimes that have been reported to law enforcement, but not crimes that haven’t been reported. Historically, the FBI has also only published statistics about a handful of specific violent and property crimes, but not many other types of crime, such as drug crime. And while the FBI’s data is based on information from thousands of federal, state, county, city and other police departments, not all law enforcement agencies participate every year. In 2022, the most recent full year with available statistics, the FBI received data from 83% of participating agencies. [...] All those caveats aside, looking at the FBI and BJS statistics side-by-side does give researchers a good picture of U.S. violent and property crime rates and how they have changed over time. In addition, the FBI is transitioning to a new data collection system – known as the National Incident-Based Reporting System – that eventually will provide national information on a much larger set of crimes, as well as details such as the time and place they occur and the types of weapons involved, if applicable.
Claim: Crime statistics “no longer include data from 30% of the country including the biggest and most violent cities.” (Donald Trump, 2024-06-18)
Evidence (2023-10-16): This page lists key statistics from the latest annual crime report published by the Federal Bureau of Investigation. The report, published on October 16, 2023, includes data on crime at the national, state, and local levels for 2022 along with comparisons against previous years. [...] FBI crime data from 2021 contained significant gaps and was based largely on estimates due to a transition in the way agencies report crime to the bureau. The tables on this page exclude 2021 data accordingly, instead making a direct comparison between 2022 and 2020, which is the most recent prior year in which a comparable number of agencies participated. This year’s report includes data accepted through the FBI’s "legacy" reporting system, significantly improving the reliability of its estimates.
Claim: Crime statistics “no longer include data from 30% of the country including the biggest and most violent cities.” (Donald Trump, 2024-06-18)
Evidence (2024-04-04): In 2019, 89% of agencies covering 97% of the population submitted data, but by 2021, that coverage plummeted to less than 63% of departments overseeing just 65% of the population. Chicago, Los Angeles, and New York City all failed to submit crime data. To increase participation, the FBI relaxed the NIBRS requirement in 2022, allowing agencies to report via the legacy system. [...] That underreporting reduces the reliability of FBI numbers in measuring actual offense levels. For example, robbery offenses, which constitute roughly 25% of all violent crime by volume compared to 5% for murder, declined 18% between 2019 and 2022, according to the FBI, while the victim’s survey suggests a 30% rise. [...] In reality, violent crime is up substantially from 2019 levels. In big cities, murder is still elevated — up 23% since 2019 across all 70 cities tracked by the MCCA and up 18% according to a 32-city analysis by the nonprofit organization Council on Criminal Justice. For aggravated assaults, CCJ’s 25-city sample found those up 8%, while the MCCA larger sample of cities reported a 26% increase over the same period.
Claim: Crime statistics “no longer include data from 30% of the country including the biggest and most violent cities.” (Donald Trump, 2024-06-18)
Evidence (2024-07-03): Violent crimes tend to occur more frequently in countries and regions where a high number of the population lives in poverty, and where government institutions are weak. This explains the high murder rates found in some Latin American countries. Of the 10 countries with the highest murder rates in worldwide, seven were found in Latin America, the other three being in Africa. El Salvador, the country with the highest homicide rate globally, had a ,murder rate of 52 per 100,000 inhabitants. Many of the most dangerous cities in the world are also found in Latin America. The list was dominated by cities in Mexico, with St. Louis in the United States having the highest murder rate outside Mexico.
Claim: Crime statistics “no longer include data from 30% of the country including the biggest and most violent cities.” (Donald Trump, 2024-06-18)
Evidence (2024-05-24): The email cited a September 2021 USA Today article that summarized newly released FBI crime data. The article cited a "nearly 30% increase in murders in 2020, the largest single-year jump since the bureau began recording crime statistics six decades ago." [...] Also, crime statistics experts told PolitiFact that the FBI’s 2021 data tracks other crime data studies that didn’t change their methodology that year. The only year for which FBI data was affected was for 2021. [...] When considering at crime statistics, experts said, this omission is crucial. Although the pandemic surely made 2020 unusual, so did the murder of Minneapolis resident George Floyd while in police custody. Floyd’s killing triggered a national outcry and a reckoning on racial issues.
Claim: Crime statistics “no longer include data from 30% of the country including the biggest and most violent cities.” (Donald Trump, 2024-06-18)
Evidence (2022-10-08): The feds for years had announced the change was coming, but many agencies did not switch in time to submit data, including the New York City Police Department and Los Angeles Police Department — the nation’s two largest. Some entire states, including California and Florida, sent virtually no data. To make up for the data holes, the Justice Department created new estimation methods that use data from agencies that did submit to the FBI to fill in the blanks for the rest of the country. In some cases, the FBI didn’t even have enough information to make an estimation. Here are a few examples of what the FBI could not include in its 2021 crime report: [...] This problem could persist for years, as upgrading reporting systems has proven expensive and complicated for police agencies. The Los Angeles Police tried for years and had to start from scratch. The San Francisco Police Department previously told The Marshall Project that they don’t plan to send crime data to the FBI until 2025.
Claim: Crime statistics “no longer include data from 30% of the country including the biggest and most violent cities.” (Donald Trump, 2024-06-18)
Evidence (2024-09-29): Joe Biden stated on July 13, 2024 in a statement to the media "The idea that there’s political violence or violence in America like this is just unheard of." Social Media stated on July 13, 2024 in social media posts Donald Trump staged the shooting at his rally in Butler, Pennsylvania. Instagram posts stated on June 30, 2024 in an Instagram post The city of San Francisco posted street signs warning that "stolen goods must remain under $950." Viral image stated on June 18, 2024 in a Facebook post "Justin Timberlake allegedly had traces of molly, poppers, Truvada, and coke in his bloodstream following his DWI arrest in New York." Donald Trump stated on June 15, 2024 in remarks in Detroit Crime statistics "no longer include data from 30% of the country including the biggest and most violent cities." Joe Biden stated on May 24, 2024 in a campaign email "The last administration oversaw the largest increase in murders ever recorded." Load more [...] Donald Trump stated on June 15, 2024 in remarks in Detroit Crime statistics "no longer include data from 30% of the country including the biggest and most violent cities."
Claim: Crime statistics “no longer include data from 30% of the country including the biggest and most violent cities.” (Donald Trump, 2024-06-18)
Evidence (2022-10-05): Crime is a huge topic in elections this November, and the FBI has now entered the chat. It has just released the Crime in the Nation report for 2021. But the bureau switched the way it collects crime data this year, and many police departments did not get on board. Los Angeles and New York City did not report to the FBI. In fact, only 63% of the country's police departments submitted anything, and some of the data that was submitted was incomplete. Weihua Li of The Marshall Project has been poring over the FBI's findings. Hey there. [...] LI: Yeah. Yeah, that's a really good question. And it's something that criminologists and people who work in criminal justice have been very worried about for a while now. So the FBI is used to receiving data from more than 90% of police departments across the country. But like you said earlier, in 2021, because they changed their data collection method, the number have dropped to roughly 60%. So instead of saying a finite number, you know, X number of crimes took place, they're saying we think the range of crime that took place in 2021 is somewhere between Y and Z. So for violent crime, property crime and homicides, the number of crimes could have gone up, gone down or stayed the same. We really don't know.