copenlu/druid huggingface dataset:
Claim: So that means that probably about half, maybe half of that nine-tenths of the degree [of total warming] might be caused by greenhouse gases (Patrick Michaels, 2019-09-07)
Evidence (2021-04-21): Video promoted by John Stossel for Earth Day relies on incorrect and misleading claims about climate change "This video is misleading in so many ways it’s hard to know where to begin. For a start there’s a repeated assertion that climate "alarmists" won’t enter debate on climate change, but there are many examples of renowned climate scientists such as Gavin Schmidt, Michael Mann and David Karoly entering into debates with climate change denialists. Many scientists have found such debates to be unhelpful as they give the false impression of balance despite there being broad consensus among climate scientists…"
Claim: So that means that probably about half, maybe half of that nine-tenths of the degree [of total warming] might be caused by greenhouse gases (Patrick Michaels, 2019-09-07)
Evidence (2021-02-25): With CO2 and other greenhouse gases, it’s different. Carbon dioxide, for example, absorbs energy at a variety of wavelengths between 2,000 and 15,000 nanometers — a range that overlaps with that of infrared energy. As CO2 soaks up this infrared energy, it vibrates and re-emits the infrared energy back in all directions. About half of that energy goes out into space, and about half of it returns to Earth as heat, contributing to the ‘greenhouse effect.’ [...] Before humans began burning fossil fuels, naturally occurring greenhouse gases helped to make Earth’s climate habitable. Without them, the planet’s average temperature would be below freezing. So we know that even very low, natural levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases can make a huge difference in Earth’s climate. [...] In the case of greenhouse gases, the planet’s temperature is a balance between how much energy comes in versus how much energy goes out. Ultimately, any increase in the amount of heat-trapping means that the Earth’s surface gets hotter. (For a more advanced discussion of the thermodynamics involved, check out this NASA page.)
Claim: So that means that probably about half, maybe half of that nine-tenths of the degree [of total warming] might be caused by greenhouse gases (Patrick Michaels, 2019-09-07)
Evidence (2015-01-01): Carbon dioxide (CO2) is a greenhouse gas and is the primary gas blamed for climate change. While sulfur dioxide released in contemporary volcanic eruptions has occasionally caused detectable global cooling of the lower atmosphere, the carbon dioxide released in contemporary volcanic eruptions has never caused detectable global warming of the atmosphere. In 2010, human activities were responsible for a projected 35 billion metric tons (gigatons) of CO2 emissions. All studies to date of global volcanic carbon dioxide emissions indicate that present-day subaerial and submarine volcanoes release less than a percent of the carbon dioxide released currently by human activities. While it has been proposed that intense volcanic release of carbon dioxide in the deep geologic past did cause global warming, and possibly some mass extinctions, this is a topic of scientific debate at present. [...] **Ratio of annual anthropogenic CO2 (approximately 35 Gt) to maximum preferred estimate for annual volcanic CO2. [...] For additional information about climate change, visit the USGS Climate and Land Use Change Mission Area website.
Claim: So that means that probably about half, maybe half of that nine-tenths of the degree [of total warming] might be caused by greenhouse gases (Patrick Michaels, 2019-09-07)
Evidence (2022-06-09): For the endnotes, please download the PDF version of this issue brief. Editors: Daniel Bresette, Carol Werner, and Anna McGinn Note: This issue brief was published in October 2019, but was updated in Spring 2022 to include more up-to-date information about the overall climate impact of aviation as well as the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on commercial aviation recovery and growth. Previously, commercial aviation was thought to be responsible for approximately 5 percent of the world’s climate-warming problem. Newer research, using the metric "effective radiative forcing," concludes aviation accounted for 3.5 percent of total anthropogenic climate warming in 2011, and likely in 2018 as well. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), effective radiative forcing is a more accurate metric than radiative forcing as it is "a better indicator of global mean temperature response." Scientists continue to acknowledge uncertainty in determining the influence of non-CO2 factors in aviation’s overall climate impact. The revision also reflects the United States’ adoption of ICAO’s carbon standard for commercial aviation aircraft in January 2021.
Claim: So that means that probably about half, maybe half of that nine-tenths of the degree [of total warming] might be caused by greenhouse gases (Patrick Michaels, 2019-09-07)
Evidence (2024-07-08): Sources of Greenhouse Gas Emissions [...] Greenhouse gases trap heat and make the planet warmer. Human activities are responsible for almost all of the increase in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere over the last 150 years.1 The largest source of greenhouse gas emissions from human activities in the United States is from burning fossil fuels for electricity, heat, and transportation. [...] There are a wide variety of industrial activities that cause greenhouse gas emissions, and many opportunities to reduce them. The table shown below provides some examples of opportunities for industry to reduce emissions. For a more comprehensive list, see Chapter 11 of the Contribution of Working Group III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 1
Claim: So that means that probably about half, maybe half of that nine-tenths of the degree [of total warming] might be caused by greenhouse gases (Patrick Michaels, 2019-09-07)
Evidence (2008-07-15): Substantial multidecadal variability in the basin confounds efforts to detect long-term (century-scale) trends of the type that might be anticipated as responses to increasing greenhouse gases. Human activities may have already caused other changes in tropical cyclone activity that are not yet clearly apparent due to the small magnitude of these changes compared to estimated natural variability, or due to observational limitations. [...] Despite the difficulty in identifying a detectable influence of human-caused greenhouse gas increases on global tropical cyclone activity, greenhouse gas-induced climate change may have already caused changes in tropical cyclone activity that are not yet detectable due to their small magnitude compared to estimated natural variability, or due to observational limitations. [...] An implication of the GFDL studies is that if the frequency of tropical cyclones remains the same over the coming century, a greenhouse-gas induced warming may lead to an increasing risk globally in the occurrence of highly destructive category-5 storms.
Claim: So that means that probably about half, maybe half of that nine-tenths of the degree [of total warming] might be caused by greenhouse gases (Patrick Michaels, 2019-09-07)
Evidence (2021-08-09): Burning fossil fuels generates greenhouse gas emissions that act like a blanket wrapped around the Earth, trapping the sun’s heat and raising temperatures. The main greenhouse gases that are causing climate change include carbon dioxide and methane. These come from using gasoline for driving a car or coal for heating a building, for example. Clearing land and cutting down forests can also release carbon dioxide. Agriculture, oil and gas operations are major sources of methane emissions. Energy, industry, transport, buildings, agriculture and land use are among the main sectors causing greenhouse gases. [...] Climate scientists have showed that humans are responsible for virtually all global heating over the last 200 years. Human activities like the ones mentioned above are causing greenhouse gases that are warming the world faster than at any time in at least the last two thousand years.
Claim: So that means that probably about half, maybe half of that nine-tenths of the degree [of total warming] might be caused by greenhouse gases (Patrick Michaels, 2019-09-07)
Evidence (2019-03-28): PETTERI TAALAS, Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), noted the recent Cyclone Idai in Mozambique, Malawai and Zimbabwe, oceans warming by half a degree, and the most expensive hurricane season in Caribbean history, all of which demonstrate a worsening situation demanding action. He highlighted that the past four years have been the warmest in history and greenhouse gases have increased by 2.7 per cent. Meanwhile, only 15 per cent of global energy is sourced from nuclear, hydro and renewable power. Without concrete action, the planet will continue to get warmer. Turning to population growth, he said Africa may have 4 billion inhabitants by the end of the century. Echoing other speakers, he called for more involvement by young people.
Claim: So that means that probably about half, maybe half of that nine-tenths of the degree [of total warming] might be caused by greenhouse gases (Patrick Michaels, 2019-09-07)
Evidence (2016-10-04): These are some of the principle findings from a new Pew Research Center survey. Most of the findings in this report are based on a nationally representative survey of 1,534 U.S. adults conducted May 10-June 6, 2016. The margin of sampling error for the full sample is plus or minus 4 percentage points. [...] Further, those with deep concerns about climate issues are much more inclined to hold climate scientists and their work in positive regard. This group is more likely than others to see scientists as understanding climate issues. Two-thirds (67%) of this more climate-engaged public trusts climate scientists a lot to provide full and accurate information about the causes of climate change; this compares with 33% of those who care some and 9% of those with little concern about the issue of climate change. About half of those with deep personal concerns about this issue (51%) say climate researchers’ findings are influenced by the best available evidence "most of the time." By the same token, those deeply concerned about climate issues are less inclined to think climate research is often influenced by considerations other than the evidence, such as scientists’ career interests or political leanings.
Claim: So that means that probably about half, maybe half of that nine-tenths of the degree [of total warming] might be caused by greenhouse gases (Patrick Michaels, 2019-09-07)
Evidence (2024-07-23): Beyond the human and societal impacts, wildfires also affect the Earth’s climate. Forests in particular store large amounts of carbon. When they burn, they immediately release carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, which in turn contributes to climate change. After burning, forests also release carbon dioxide more gradually through decomposition. [...] Although some nationwide fire data have been collected since the early 1900s, this indicator starts in 1983 (Figures 1 and 2) and 1984 (Figures 3 through 7), when nationwide data collection became more complete and standardized. EPA divided the time period in Figures 5, 6, and 7 into two roughly equal halves to compare changes in wildfire characteristics over time. [...] Along with the influence of ongoing climate change, wildfire patterns can be influenced by natural climate cycles that tend to shift every few decades. Thus, with less than four decades of data shown here, it might be challenging to draw conclusions about long-term trends. While a longer record would be ideal, data from before 1983 are not consistent or detailed enough nationally to be included in this indicator.
Claim: So that means that probably about half, maybe half of that nine-tenths of the degree [of total warming] might be caused by greenhouse gases (Patrick Michaels, 2019-09-07)
Evidence (2022-08-08): Fig. 1: Climatic hazards of the Earth’s system affected by the ongoing emission of GHGs. We considered the following ten climate hazards. GHGs mediate the balance between incoming solar radiation and outgoing infrared radiation; thus, (1) their excess in the atmosphere causes warming. Compounded with an increased capacity of the air to hold water, warming accelerates soil water evaporation, leading to (2) drought in places that are commonly dry; excess drought can lead to (3) heatwaves when heat transfer from water evaporation ceases. Drought and heatwaves ripen the conditions for (4) wildfires. In moist places, the quick replenishment of evaporation strengthens (5) precipitation, which is prone to cause (6) floods as rain falls on moist places/saturated soils. Warming of the oceans enhances evaporation and wind speeds, intensifying downpours and the strength of (7) storms, whose surges can be aggravated by (8) sea level rise, which in turn can aggravate the impacts of floods. Uptake of CO2 in the oceans causes ocean acidification, whereas changes in ocean circulation and warming reduces oxygen concentration in seawater; these combined ocean physical–chemical changes are referred to as (9) ocean climate change in this paper. [...] Mora, C. et al. Broad threat to humanity from cumulative climate hazards intensified by greenhouse gas emissions. Nat. Clim. Change8, 1062–1071 (2018).
Claim: So that means that probably about half, maybe half of that nine-tenths of the degree [of total warming] might be caused by greenhouse gases (Patrick Michaels, 2019-09-07)
Evidence (2021-06-28): The energy sector is the source of around three-quarters of greenhouse gas emissions today and holds the key to averting the worst effects of climate change, perhaps the greatest challenge humankind has faced. Reducing global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to net zero by 2050 is consistent with efforts to limit the long-term increase in average global temperatures to 1.5˚C. This calls for nothing less than a complete transformation of how we produce, transport and consume energy. The growing political consensus on reaching net zero is cause for considerable optimism about the progress the world can make, but the changes required to reach net zero emissions globally by 2050 are poorly understood. A huge amount of work is needed to turn today’s impressive ambitions into reality, especially given the range of different situations among countries and their differing capacities to make the necessary changes. This special IEA report sets out a pathway for achieving this goal, resulting in a clean and resilient energy system that would bring major benefits for human prosperity and well-being. [...] Priority action: Make the 2020s the decade of massive clean energy expansion [...] Priority action: Set near-term milestones to get on track for long-term targets
Claim: So that means that probably about half, maybe half of that nine-tenths of the degree [of total warming] might be caused by greenhouse gases (Patrick Michaels, 2019-09-07)
Evidence (2012-04-04): B.1.1. Evidence from attributed changes in some climate and weather extremes for a global warming of about 0.5°C supports the assessment that an additional 0.5°C of warming compared to present is associated with further detectable changes in these extremes (medium confidence). Several regional changes in climate are assessed to occur with global warming up to 1.5°C compared to pre-industrial levels, including warming of extreme temperatures in many regions (high confidence), increases in frequency, intensity, and/or amount of heavy precipitation in several regions (high confidence), and an increase in intensity or frequency of droughts in some regions (medium confidence). {3.2, 3.3.1, 3.3.2, 3.3.3, 3.3.4, Table 3.2} [...] B.2.2. Sea level rise will continue beyond 2100 even if global warming is limited to 1.5°C in the 21st century (high confidence). Marine ice sheet instability in Antarctica and/or irreversible loss of the Greenland ice sheet could result in multi-metre rise in sea level over hundreds to thousands of years. These instabilities could be triggered at around 1.5°C to 2°C of global warming (medium confidence). (Figure SPM.2) {3.3.9, 3.4.5, 3.5.2, 3.6.3, Box 3.3}
Claim: So that means that probably about half, maybe half of that nine-tenths of the degree [of total warming] might be caused by greenhouse gases (Patrick Michaels, 2019-09-07)
Evidence (2024-01-18): Human activities, principally through emissions of greenhouse gases, have unequivocally caused global warming, with global surface temperature reaching 1.1°C above 1850-1900 in 2011-2020. [...] The likely range of total human-caused global surface temperature increase from 1850–1900 to 2010–2019 is 0.8°C to 1.3°C, with a best estimate of 1.07°C [2.01 ˚F]. Over this period, it is likely that well-mixed greenhouse gases (GHGs) contributed a warming of 1.0°C to 2.0°C, and other human drivers (principally aerosols) contributed a cooling of 0.0°C to 0.8°C, natural (solar and volcanic) drivers changed global surface temperature by –0.1°C to +0.1°C, and internal variability changed it by –0.2°C to +0.2°C. The amount of future warming Earth will experience depends on how much carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases we emit in coming decades. Today, our activities—burning fossil fuels and to a lesser extent clearing forests—add about 11 billion metric tons of carbon (equivalent to a little over 40 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide) to the atmosphere each year. Because that is more carbon than natural processes can remove, atmospheric carbon dioxide amounts increase each year.
Claim: So that means that probably about half, maybe half of that nine-tenths of the degree [of total warming] might be caused by greenhouse gases (Patrick Michaels, 2019-09-07)
Evidence (2012-04-04): Past emissions alone are unlikely to raise global-mean temperature to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels (medium confidence), but past emissions do commit to other changes, such as further sea level rise (high confidence). If all anthropogenic emissions (including aerosol-related) were reduced to zero immediately, any further warming beyond the 1°C already experienced would likely be less than 0.5°C over the next two to three decades (high confidence), and likely less than 0.5°C on a century time scale (medium confidence), due to the opposing effects of different climate processes and drivers. A warming greater than 1.5°C is therefore not geophysically unavoidable: whether it will occur depends on future rates of emission reductions. {1.2.3, 1.2.4}
Claim: So that means that probably about half, maybe half of that nine-tenths of the degree [of total warming] might be caused by greenhouse gases (Patrick Michaels, 2019-09-07)
Evidence (2020-10-12): The impacts of climate change haven’t been spread evenly around our planet and they won’t be in the future, either. Temperatures increase at different speeds everywhere, with warming generally higher over land areas than oceans. The strongest warming is happening in the Arctic during its cool seasons, and in Earth’s mid-latitude regions during the warm season. [...] More areas will see increases in the frequency, intensity and/or amount of heavy precipitation. [...] For more on the IPCC Special Report, visit http://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/.
Claim: So that means that probably about half, maybe half of that nine-tenths of the degree [of total warming] might be caused by greenhouse gases (Patrick Michaels, 2019-09-07)
Evidence (2018-05-12): There is a big shortfall between the amount of food we produce today and the amount needed to feed everyone in 2050. There will be nearly 10 billion people on Earth by 2050—about 3 billion more mouths to feed than there were in 2010. As incomes rise, people will increasingly consume more resource-intensive, animal-based foods. At the same time, we urgently need to cut greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agricultural production and stop conversion of remaining forests to agricultural land. [...] Course 5: Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Agricultural Production GHG emissions from agricultural production arise from livestock farming, application of nitrogen fertilizers, rice cultivation and energy use. They’re projected to rise from 7 to 9 gigatons per year or more by 2050 (in addition to 6 gigatons per year or more from land-use change, not shown in the chart below). This course addresses each of these major emissions sources.
Claim: So that means that probably about half, maybe half of that nine-tenths of the degree [of total warming] might be caused by greenhouse gases (Patrick Michaels, 2019-09-07)
Evidence (2022-09-01): Many of these greenhouse gases occur naturally, but human activities are increasing the concentrations of some of them in the atmosphere, in particular: [...] Other greenhouse gases are emitted by human activities in smaller quantities. Methane is a more powerful greenhouse gas than CO2, but has a shorter atmospheric lifetime. Nitrous oxide, like CO2, is a long-lived greenhouse gas that accumulates in the atmosphere over decades to centuries. Non-greenhouse gas pollutants, including aerosols like soot, have different warming and cooling effects and are also associated with other issues such as poor air quality. Natural causes, such as changes in solar radiation or volcanic activity are estimated to have contributed less than plus or minus 0.1°C to total warming between 1890 and 2010.
Claim: So that means that probably about half, maybe half of that nine-tenths of the degree [of total warming] might be caused by greenhouse gases (Patrick Michaels, 2019-09-07)
Evidence (2010-06-03): How does this warming compare to previous changes in Earth’s climate? How can we be certain that human-released greenhouse gases are causing the warming? How much more will the Earth warm? How will Earth respond? Answering these questions is perhaps the most significant scientific challenge of our time. [...] Greenhouse gases are only part of the story when it comes to global warming. Changes to one part of the climate system can cause additional changes to the way the planet absorbs or reflects energy. These secondary changes are called climate feedbacks, and they could more than double the amount of warming caused by carbon dioxide alone. The primary feedbacks are due to snow and ice, water vapor, clouds, and the carbon cycle. [...] The largest feedback is water vapor. Water vapor is a strong greenhouse gas. In fact, because of its abundance in the atmosphere, water vapor causes about two-thirds of greenhouse warming, a key factor in keeping temperatures in the habitable range on Earth. But as temperatures warm, more water vapor evaporates from the surface into the atmosphere, where it can cause temperatures to climb further.
Claim: So that means that probably about half, maybe half of that nine-tenths of the degree [of total warming] might be caused by greenhouse gases (Patrick Michaels, 2019-09-07)
Evidence (2022-02-08): Water vapor is Earth’s most abundant greenhouse gas. It’s responsible for about half of Earth’s greenhouse effect — the process that occurs when gases in Earth’s atmosphere trap the Sun’s heat. Greenhouse gases keep our planet livable. Without them, Earth’s surface temperature would be about 59 degrees Fahrenheit (33 degrees Celsius) colder. Water vapor is also a key part of Earth’s water cycle: the path that all water follows as it moves around Earth’s atmosphere, land, and ocean as liquid water, solid ice, and gaseous water vapor. [...] The greenhouse gases in the dry air in Earth’s atmosphere include carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, ozone, and chlorofluorocarbons. While making up around 0.05% of Earth’s total atmosphere, they play major roles in trapping Earth’s radiant heat from the Sun and keeping it from escaping into space. Each is driven directly by human activities. [...] Carbon dioxide is responsible for a third of the total warming of Earth’s climate due to human-produced greenhouse gases. Small increases in its concentration have major effects. A key reason is the length of time carbon dioxide remains in the atmosphere.