copenlu/druid huggingface dataset:
Claim: [NASA] has been adjusting temperatures from the past[...] downward, while adjusting current-day temperatures upward, and those changes are responsible for most of the claimed global warming during that time. (Tony Heller, James Murphy, 2019-06-26)
Evidence (2019-07-01): NASA did not create global warming by manipulating data [...] In the unscientific formulation of [some], this means that the adjustments for this effect make the past warmer and the recent temperatures colder. But overall, the estimated global warming actually becomes smaller when taking into account all the adjustments—the opposite of [that claim]. [See figure in Mark Richardson’s comment below.] [...] Raw data show more global warming since 1880 than is reported by NOAA [or shown in other datasets]. This is because NOAA "adjusts" temperature data to fairly compare different measurement times, places, and technologies. The cooling effect of adjustments on global temperatures has been shown lots of times, such as with the graph below for 1880—2013 temperatures.
Claim: [NASA] has been adjusting temperatures from the past[...] downward, while adjusting current-day temperatures upward, and those changes are responsible for most of the claimed global warming during that time. (Tony Heller, James Murphy, 2019-06-26)
Evidence (2017-02-14): Because of the vastness of the Pacific basin—covering one-third of the planet—these wind and humidity changes get transmitted around the world, disrupting circulation patterns such as jet streams (strong upper-level winds). We know these large-scale shifts in Pacific winds and waters initiate El Niño. What we don't know is what triggers the shift. This remains a scientific mystery. [...] Fires raging in Indonesia. Fisheries collapsing off Peru. Delayed monsoon rains over India. Floods and mosquito-borne disease outbreaks in South America. Epic drought and mass migrations in southern Africa. Once an El Niño is declared, it seems every extreme weather-related event in the world is blamed on this phenomenon. El Niño is the largest natural disruption to the Earth system, with direct impacts across most of the Pacific Ocean. Indirect impacts reverberate around the globe in patterns that scientists refer to as "teleconnections." Scientists are actively trying to understand how these changes in weather patterns in one area can alter the movement of air masses and winds in areas adjacent to and even far away from the source. According to the International Research Institute for Climate and Society at Columbia University, El Niño-Southern Oscillation is responsible for as much as 50 percent of year-to-year climate variability in some regions of the world.
Claim: [NASA] has been adjusting temperatures from the past[...] downward, while adjusting current-day temperatures upward, and those changes are responsible for most of the claimed global warming during that time. (Tony Heller, James Murphy, 2019-06-26)
Evidence (2008-07-15): The IPCC AR6 presents a strong body of scientific evidence that it is unequivocal that humans have caused the earth’s climate to warm, with a likely human contribution of 0.8 to 1.3 degrees Celsius to global mean temperature since the late 1800s. But what does this anthropogenic global warming mean for Atlantic hurricane activity, or global tropical cyclone activity? Here, we address these questions, starting with those conclusions where we have relatively more confidence. The main text of this web page gives more background discussion. "Detectable" change here will refer to a change that is large enough to be clearly distinguishable from the variability due to natural causes. Our main conclusions are: [...] The relatively conservative confidence levels attached to our Atlantic hurricane projections, and the lack of a claim of detectable anthropogenic influence on Atlantic hurricane activity at this time contrasts with the situation for other climate metrics, such as global mean temperature. The IPCC AR6 concludes that it is unequivocal that humans have caused the earth’s climate to warm, with a likely human contribution of 0.8 to 1.3 degrees Celsius to global mean temperature since the late 1800s. [...] For more information and related research see:
Claim: [NASA] has been adjusting temperatures from the past[...] downward, while adjusting current-day temperatures upward, and those changes are responsible for most of the claimed global warming during that time. (Tony Heller, James Murphy, 2019-06-26)
Evidence (2022-01-31): This somewhat convoluted statement has been often misinterpreted as implying that the human responsibility for modern warming lies somewhere between 50% and 100%. In fact, as NASA’s Dr Gavin Schmidt has pointed out, the IPCC’s implied best guess was that humans were responsible for around 110% of observed warming (ranging from 72% to 146%), with natural factors in isolation leading to a slight cooling over the past 50 years. [...] These conclusions have led to some confusion as to how more than 100% of observed warming could be attributable to human activity. A human contribution of greater than 100% is possible because natural climate change associated with volcanoes and solar activity would most likely have resulted in a slight cooling over the past 50 years, offsetting some of the warming associated with human activities. [...] Similarly, Dr Martin Stolpe and colleagues, also at IAC, recently analysed the role of multidecadal natural variability in both the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. They found that "less than 10% of the observed global warming during the second half of the 20th century is caused by internal variability in these two ocean basins, reinforcing the attribution of most of the observed warming to anthropogenic forcings".
Claim: [NASA] has been adjusting temperatures from the past[...] downward, while adjusting current-day temperatures upward, and those changes are responsible for most of the claimed global warming during that time. (Tony Heller, James Murphy, 2019-06-26)
Evidence (2024-02-29): Land areas generally show about twice as much warming as the ocean. When compared to the 1850-1900 averages, the land average in 2023 has increased 2.10 ± 0.07 °C (3.78 ± 0.13 °F) and the ocean surface temperature, excluding sea ice regions, has increased 1.10 ± 0.04 °C (1.98 ± 0.07 °F). Most of this warming has occurred since 1970. [...] Over the long-term man-made global warming is responsible for gradually increasing temperatures at a rate of ~0.20 °C / decade. Greenhouse gas emissions, which are the underlying cause of global warming, reached record highs in 2023. [...] Since 1980, the overall trend is +0.20 °C/decade (+0.36 °F/decade) and has changed little during this period. By continuing this trend, we can make a rough guess of how the near-future climate may develop if the forces driving global warming continue to progress at their present rate.
Claim: [NASA] has been adjusting temperatures from the past[...] downward, while adjusting current-day temperatures upward, and those changes are responsible for most of the claimed global warming during that time. (Tony Heller, James Murphy, 2019-06-26)
Evidence (2015-02-22): There are two specific changes to the U.S. temperature observation network over the last century that have resulted in systemic cooling biases: time of observation changes at most of the stations from late afternoon to early morning, and a change in most of the instruments from liquid in glass thermometers to MMTS electronic instruments. Back in July I posted a general introduction to U.S. temperature adjustments that looked at the relative effect of each adjustment. Here I will focus in detail on the Time of Observation adjustment, which is responsible for the majority of the change in U.S. temperatures vis-à-vis raw data. In a future post I will address the pairwise homogenization algorithm, which attempts to correct for factors like the MMTS transition and the impact of urbanization on temperature trends. [...] The net effect of adjustments to correct for time of observation changes is shown in Figue 2. TOBs adjustments increase the amount of warming in the historical temperature record by just under 0.3 C, with similar adjustments to both minimum and maximum temperatures. This adjustment alone is responsible for the majority of the difference between raw and adjusted temperatures reported by NCDC.
Claim: [NASA] has been adjusting temperatures from the past[...] downward, while adjusting current-day temperatures upward, and those changes are responsible for most of the claimed global warming during that time. (Tony Heller, James Murphy, 2019-06-26)
Evidence (2010-05-19): Each of the research teams that produce large-scale temperature estimates has developed methods for dealing with the potential biases and sources of error such as those described in the preceding paragraph. For example, NASA GISS uses a linear interpolation procedure to "fill in" missing data and temperatures in areas between observing stations, and data from urban stations (which are identified based on either population density data or "nightlight" levels observed by satellite) are adjusted so their long-term trends match those of neighboring rural stations. The University of East Anglia instead corrects the station-level data first and then uses a simple averaging procedure to combine the data. These procedures have been developed over several decades (e.g., Hansen and Lebedev, 1987) and are constantly reevaluated to identify and correct for additional sources of error. It was recently determined, for example, that a change in the way that certain ship-based temperatures were treated introduced a spurious signature into the mid-20th-century temperature record including an abrupt drop of ~0.5°F (0.3°C) in 1945 (Thompson et al., 2008). [...] Many lines of evidence support the conclusion that most of the observed warming over at least the last several decades is due to human activities: [...] Detailed observations of temperatures, GHG increases, and other climate forcing factors from an array of instruments, including Earth-orbiting satellites, reveal an unambiguous correspondence between human-induced GHG increases and planetary warming over at least the past three decades, in addition to substantial year-to-year natural climate variability (Hegerl et al., 2007).
Claim: [NASA] has been adjusting temperatures from the past[...] downward, while adjusting current-day temperatures upward, and those changes are responsible for most of the claimed global warming during that time. (Tony Heller, James Murphy, 2019-06-26)
Evidence (2023-07-25): The new Antarctic sea ice record reflects the diversity and complexity of Earth’s environments, said NASA researchers. Claire Parkinson, a senior scientist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, has referred to changes in sea ice coverage as a microcosm of global climate change. Just as the temperatures in some regions of the planet are colder than average, even in our warming world, Antarctic sea ice has been increasing and bucking the overall trend of ice loss. [...] Researchers are investigating a number of other possible explanations as well. One clue, Parkinson said, could be found around the Antarctic Peninsula – a finger of land stretching up toward South America. There, the temperatures are warming, and in the Bellingshausen Sea just to the west of the peninsula the sea ice is shrinking. Beyond the Bellingshausen Sea and past the Amundsen Sea, lies the Ross Sea – where much of the sea ice growth is occurring. [...] NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md.
Claim: [NASA] has been adjusting temperatures from the past[...] downward, while adjusting current-day temperatures upward, and those changes are responsible for most of the claimed global warming during that time. (Tony Heller, James Murphy, 2019-06-26)
Evidence (2024-10-07): The latest science on present-day impacts and future projections of sea-level rise. [...] The way land resources – soil, water, and biodiversity – are currently mismanaged and misused threatens the health and continued survival of many species on Earth, including our own, warns a stark new report from the UN Convention to Combat Desertification. [...] Land is already under growing human pressure and climate change is adding to these pressures. At the same time, keeping global warming to well below 2ºC can be achieved only by reducing greenhouse gas emissions from all sectors including land and food, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) states in its latest report.
Claim: [NASA] has been adjusting temperatures from the past[...] downward, while adjusting current-day temperatures upward, and those changes are responsible for most of the claimed global warming during that time. (Tony Heller, James Murphy, 2019-06-26)
Evidence (2024-05-26): "Claim: Climate scientists disagree about how much warming is associated with our emissions and whether this warming is larger than natural climate variability from the sun and volcanic eruptions" "Key takeaway: Scientific evidence shows that modern global warming is primarily driven by increasing CO2 emissions from human activities. There is no evidence that solar variations or volcanic activity are substantial drivers of recent climate change." [...] I could cite hundreds of papers published in refereed science journals that question whether the recent warming is larger than natural climate variability (many of these papers have been discussed on this blog). The IPCC chooses to ignore these papers. This does not mean that disagreement among scientists does not exist. In fact, the IPCC AR4 and AR5 conclusions about attribution are framed in terms of "most of the warming" and "more than half of the global average surface temperature increase". So >50%. Imagining 49% is not farfetched. The IPCC AR4 talks about "unresolved internal variability" to justify using the relatively weak "most".
Claim: [NASA] has been adjusting temperatures from the past[...] downward, while adjusting current-day temperatures upward, and those changes are responsible for most of the claimed global warming during that time. (Tony Heller, James Murphy, 2019-06-26)
Evidence (2015-02-26): Understanding adjustments to temperature data [...] There has been much discussion of temperature adjustment of late in both climate blogs and in the media, but not much background on what specific adjustments are being made, why they are being made, and what effects they have. Adjustments have a big effect on temperature trends in the U.S., and a modest effect on global land trends. The large contribution of adjustments to century-scale U.S. temperature trends lends itself to an unfortunate narrative that "government bureaucrats are cooking the books". [...] While fairly symmetric in aggregate, there are distinct temporal patterns in the PHA adjustments. The single largest of these are positive adjustments in maximum temperatures to account for transitions from LiG instruments to MMTS and ASOS instruments in the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s. Other notable PHA-detected adjustments are minimum (and more modest maximum) temperature shifts associated with a widespread move of stations from inner city rooftops to newly-constructed airports or wastewater treatment plants after 1940, as well as gradual corrections of urbanizing sites like Reno, Nevada. The net effect of PHA adjustments is shown in Figure 8, below.
Claim: [NASA] has been adjusting temperatures from the past[...] downward, while adjusting current-day temperatures upward, and those changes are responsible for most of the claimed global warming during that time. (Tony Heller, James Murphy, 2019-06-26)
Evidence (2023-07-31): For latest figures see the NASA-GISS site [...] Mitchell (1953); already in 1938 Callendar adjusted for the effect, while admitting that "this is a matter which is open to controversy." Callendar (1938), p. 235. Additionally, the common practice during the 1950s of moving weather stations from downtown locations to airports, outside the "heat island," would give a spurious impression of cooling, but Mitchell and others allowed for that too in their calculations. BACK 23. Lamb (1977), pp. 709-10. BACK 24. Johnsen et al. (1970); Lamb (1977), pp. 529, 549. BACK 25. Emiliani (1966b). BACK 26. Hays et al. (1976). BACK 27. Mitchell (1972), p. 445; GARP (1975), pp. 37, 43; they cite a Manabe computer model of 1971 and Mitchell (1973). BACK 28. Broecker (1975). For more on Broecker's paper see the essay on solar variation; for the few obscure earlier uses of "global warming" see this footnote in the essay on The Public and Climate. BACK 29. Salinger and Gunn (1975). BACK 30. Damon and Kunen (1976); a brief argument on turbidity reducing high-latitude temperatures is in Bryson (1973), p. 9; see also Damon and Kunen (1978). A confirmation: Hansen et al. (1981). BACK 31. Lamb (1977), p.
Claim: [NASA] has been adjusting temperatures from the past[...] downward, while adjusting current-day temperatures upward, and those changes are responsible for most of the claimed global warming during that time. (Tony Heller, James Murphy, 2019-06-26)
Evidence (2022-06-09): NOAA does not fraudulently adjust data to create the illusion of a global warming trend [...] Non-peer-reviewed manuscript falsely claims natural cloud changes can explain global warming [...] NASA did not create global warming by manipulating data
Claim: [NASA] has been adjusting temperatures from the past[...] downward, while adjusting current-day temperatures upward, and those changes are responsible for most of the claimed global warming during that time. (Tony Heller, James Murphy, 2019-06-26)
Evidence (2010-06-03): Global warming is the unusually rapid increase in Earth’s average surface temperature over the past century primarily due to the greenhouse gases released by people burning fossil fuels. [...] Global warming is the unusually rapid increase in Earth’s average surface temperature over the past century primarily due to the greenhouse gases released as people burn fossil fuels. The global average surface temperature rose 0.6 to 0.9 degrees Celsius (1.1 to 1.6° F) between 1906 and 2005, and the rate of temperature increase has nearly doubled in the last 50 years. Temperatures are certain to go up further. [...] In Earth’s history before the Industrial Revolution, Earth’s climate changed due to natural causes not related to human activity. Most often, global climate has changed because of variations in sunlight. Tiny wobbles in Earth’s orbit altered when and where sunlight falls on Earth’s surface. Variations in the Sun itself have alternately increased and decreased the amount of solar energy reaching Earth. Volcanic eruptions have generated particles that reflect sunlight, brightening the planet and cooling the climate. Volcanic activity has also, in the deep past, increased greenhouse gases over millions of years, contributing to episodes of global warming.
Claim: [NASA] has been adjusting temperatures from the past[...] downward, while adjusting current-day temperatures upward, and those changes are responsible for most of the claimed global warming during that time. (Tony Heller, James Murphy, 2019-06-26)
Evidence (2011-03-03): 1.5°C and 2°C Warmer Worlds [...] Human-induced global warming has already caused multiple observed changes in the climate system (high confidence). Changes include increases in both land and ocean temperatures, as well as more frequent heatwaves in most land regions (high confidence). There is also (high confidence) global warming has resulted in an increase in the frequency and duration of marine heatwaves. Further, there is substantial evidence that human-induced global warming has led to an increase in the frequency, intensity and/or amount of heavy precipitation events at the global scale (medium confidence), as well as an increased risk of drought in the Mediterranean region (medium confidence). {3.3.1, 3.3.2, 3.3.3, 3.3.4, Box 3.4} Trends in intensity and frequency of some climate and weather extremes have been detected over time spans during which about 0.5°C of global warming occurred (medium confidence). This assessment is based on several lines of evidence, including attribution studies for changes in extremes since 1950. {3.2, 3.3.1, 3.3.2, 3.3.3, 3.3.4}
Claim: [NASA] has been adjusting temperatures from the past[...] downward, while adjusting current-day temperatures upward, and those changes are responsible for most of the claimed global warming during that time. (Tony Heller, James Murphy, 2019-06-26)
Evidence (2024-10-07): In common usage, climate change describes global warming—the ongoing increase in global average temperature—and its effects on Earth's climate system. Climate change in a broader sense also includes previous long-term changes to Earth's climate. The current rise in global average temperature is primarily caused by humans burning fossil fuels since the Industrial Revolution.[3][4] Fossil fuel use, deforestation, and some agricultural and industrial practices add to greenhouse gases.[5] These gases absorb some of the heat that the Earth radiates after it warms from sunlight, warming the lower atmosphere. Carbon dioxide, the primary greenhouse gas driving global warming, has grown by about 50% and is at levels unseen for millions of years.[6] [...] Radiative feedbacks are physical processes that influence the rate of global warming in response to warming. For instance, warmer air can hold more moisture, and water vapour itself is a potent greenhouse gas.[167] Warmer air can also result in clouds becoming higher and thinner, where they act as an insulator and warm the planet.[172] Another major feedback is the reduction of snow cover and sea ice in the Arctic, reducing the reflectivity of the Earth's surface there and contributing to amplification of Arctic temperature changes.[173][174] Arctic amplification is also thawing permafrost, which releases methane and CO2 into the atmosphere.[175]
Claim: [NASA] has been adjusting temperatures from the past[...] downward, while adjusting current-day temperatures upward, and those changes are responsible for most of the claimed global warming during that time. (Tony Heller, James Murphy, 2019-06-26)
Evidence (2023-05-11): Glaciers and ice sheets, large land-based formations of ice, are melting as global temperatures rise. That meltwater drains into the sea, increasing the ocean's water volume and global sea level. Melting ice has caused about two-thirds of the rise in sea level to date, one-third from land ice in Greenland and Antarctica and one third from melting ice on mountains. [...] NASA Images of Change NASA Climate Time Machine
Claim: [NASA] has been adjusting temperatures from the past[...] downward, while adjusting current-day temperatures upward, and those changes are responsible for most of the claimed global warming during that time. (Tony Heller, James Murphy, 2019-06-26)
Evidence (2019-06-19): NASA's Global Climate Change Website [...] NASA’s global climate change website, and its vital signs section, document what a 1-degree Celsius temperature increase has already done to our planet. The impacts of global warming are being felt everywhere, from rising sea levels to more extreme weather, more frequent wildfires, and heatwaves and increased drought, to name a few. Because our society has been built around the climate Earth has had for the past approximately 10,000 years, when it changes noticeably, as it has done in recent decades, people begin to take notice. Today, most people realize Earth’s climate is changing. A December 2018 report by Yale and George Mason Universities found that seven in 10 Americans think global warming is happening, with about six in 10 saying it is mostly caused by humans. We live in a world bound by the laws of physics. For example, at temperatures above 0 degrees Celsius (32 degrees Fahrenheit), ice, including Earth’s polar ice sheets and other land ice, begins to melt and changes from a solid to a liquid. When that water flows downward into the ocean, it raises global sea level.