copenlu/druid huggingface dataset:
Claim: Scientists were caught 'adjusting' sea level data to create false impression of rising oceans (Vicki Batts, James Delingpole, 2020-02-20)
Evidence (2014-12-10): Global sea levels have been ticking steadily higher by about an eighth of an inch (3.2 millimeters) each year since scientists began measuring them two decades ago. That’s why Carmen Boening, a research scientist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California, was so shocked in 2010 and 2011, when she saw a quarter-inch (five-millimeter) drop in sea level – a sudden reversal of the trend. [...] Scientists will continue learning more about the ocean’s intricacies, correcting assumptions and revising old estimates. But Willis warns against losing sight of the strong global trend toward rising sea levels.
Claim: Scientists were caught 'adjusting' sea level data to create false impression of rising oceans (Vicki Batts, James Delingpole, 2020-02-20)
Evidence (2023-07-26): The data reveal the height of the sea surface is not rising uniformly everywhere. Regional differences in sea level rise are dominated by the effects of ocean currents and natural cycles such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). But, as these natural cycles wax and wane, they can have major impacts on local coastlines.
Claim: Scientists were caught 'adjusting' sea level data to create false impression of rising oceans (Vicki Batts, James Delingpole, 2020-02-20)
Evidence (2020-08-21): The researchers found that estimates of global sea level variations based on tide-gauge observations had slightly overestimated global sea levels before the 1970s. (Located at coastal stations scattered around the globe, tide gauges are used to measure sea level height.) They also found that mountain glacier meltwater was adding more water to the oceans than previously realized but that the relative contribution of glaciers to sea level rise is slowly decreasing. And they discovered that glacier and Greenland ice sheet mass loss explain the increased rate of sea level rise before 1940. [...] All told, sea levels have risen on average 1.6 millimeters (0.063 inches) per year between 1900 and 2018. In fact, sea levels are rising at a faster rate than at any time in the 20th century. But previous estimates of the mass of melting ice and thermal expansion of the ocean fell short of explaining this rate, particularly before the era of precise satellite observations of the world's oceans, creating a deficit in the historic sea level budget.
Claim: Scientists were caught 'adjusting' sea level data to create false impression of rising oceans (Vicki Batts, James Delingpole, 2020-02-20)
Evidence (2022-09-19): Sea level is rising, says Chris Piecuch, a physical oceanographer and sea-level scientist at WHOI. Not only that, it’s rising faster over time. Scientists use computer models to predict how it will change in the future. But "I look more to the past," Piecuch says. "What’s happened over the past few decades or the past few centuries." By studying tiny microfossils buried in salt marsh sediment, he can track sea level back thousands of years. For at least the past 3,000 years, those levels remained fairly constant or increased only slightly. That is, right up until the Industrial Revolution. More recent instrumental data show that’s no longer the case. Scientists have been tracking sea level along coastlines using tidal gauges for more than a century. And since the 1990s, satellite measurements have given them an even more complete view of sea level over the global ocean. Those data unequivocally show a rise in sea level. Averaged over the entire ocean, the increases are small—just three millimeters per year, or about the width of two grains of rice laid side by side. But those millimeters add up, with sea level rising more than seven centimeters (a little more than three inches) in just 25 years. What’s more, Piecuch says, "it’s not just rising, it’s accelerating. It’s rising faster every year."
Claim: Scientists were caught 'adjusting' sea level data to create false impression of rising oceans (Vicki Batts, James Delingpole, 2020-02-20)
Evidence (2020-02-22): Misleading: The claim that scientists were caught "adjusting" sea level data misrepresents the process scientists use to account for potential errors in historical sea level data. [...] The claim that "scientists were caught ‘adjusting’ sea level data to create false impression of rising oceans" misrepresents approaches used by scientists to account for potential errors in historical sea level data. Instruments used to measure sea level, called tide gauges, may be replaced or moved to new locations over time. To calculate actual changes in sea level despite movements of the tide gauges, sea level data is compared to a stable benchmark at each sampling site. The process of adjusting data based on benchmarks is not arbitrary, as Thomas Frederikse explains in the reviewer comments below. [...] Aden [in Yemen] is one of these records for which levelling data is available[6]. The station shows a clear rise in sea level of about 12 cm since ~1900. Now basically, the authors [of the refuted study] call this full levelling data "arbitrary", come up with some random alternative "adjustments", not backed by any reasonable argument, and voila, their manipulated sea-level data doesn’t show any sea-level rise anymore. Then they infer from their falsified data, based on this and two other records that global sea level is stable. Sea-level reconstructions, which typically include hundreds of tide-gauge records, unanimously show that sea level has risen by 15 to 25 cm since 1900.
Claim: Scientists were caught 'adjusting' sea level data to create false impression of rising oceans (Vicki Batts, James Delingpole, 2020-02-20)
Evidence (2023-09-20): Scientists have gained new insights into the processes that have driven ocean level variations for over a century, helping us prepare for the rising seas of the future. [...] The researchers found that estimates of global sea level variations based on tide-gauge observations had slightly overestimated global sea levels before the 1970s. (Located at coastal stations scattered around the globe, tide gauges are used to measure sea level height.) They also found that mountain glacier meltwater was adding more water to the oceans than previously realized but that the relative contribution of glaciers to sea level rise is slowly decreasing. And they discovered that glacier and Greenland ice sheet mass loss explain the increased rate of sea level rise before 1940. [...] All told, sea levels have risen on average 1.6 millimeters (0.063 inches) per year between 1900 and 2018. In fact, sea levels are rising at a faster rate than at any time in the 20th century. But previous estimates of the mass of melting ice and thermal expansion of the ocean fell short of explaining this rate, particularly before the era of precise satellite observations of the world’s oceans, creating a deficit in the historic sea level budget.
Claim: Scientists were caught 'adjusting' sea level data to create false impression of rising oceans (Vicki Batts, James Delingpole, 2020-02-20)
Evidence (2022-09-29): Sea level fingerprints have been notoriously difficult to track because of the major fluctuations in ocean levels brought on by changing tides, currents, and winds. That presents researchers with the challenge of trying to detect millimeter level motions of the water and link them to melting glaciers thousands of miles away. [...] The new study uses newly released satellite data from a European marine-monitoring agency that captured more than 30 years of observations around the Greenland Ice Sheet and much of the ocean close to Greenland to capture rising and falling ocean levels from the fingerprint. The satellite data caught the eye of Mitrovica and colleague David Sandwell of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography. Typically, records from this region had only extended up to the southern tip of Greenland, but in this new release the data reached 10 degrees higher in latitude, allowing the scientists to eyeball a potential hint of the seesaw caused by the fingerprint.
Claim: Scientists were caught 'adjusting' sea level data to create false impression of rising oceans (Vicki Batts, James Delingpole, 2020-02-20)
Evidence (2020-10-30): Scientists now have an unprecedented understanding of changing sea levels, thanks to data collected and distributed by NASA and partner space agencies. For example, international satellites have collected almost 30 years of data on sea surface height from satellite altimeters. [...] The new Sea Level Change Data Pathfinder delves into many of the datasets scientists use to study the status of global and regional sea level change. When scientists refer to changes in sea level, they are referring to changes in the height of the mean sea surface relative to a mean sea level defined by Earth’s geoid. Earth’s geoid is defined as the mean sea surface due to the pull of gravity on the ocean. Satellite altimeters very accurately provide measurements of sea surface height by timing a roundtrip radar signal from the satellite to the ocean surface and back to the satellite. These measurements are used to calculate Global Mean Sea Level.
Claim: Scientists were caught 'adjusting' sea level data to create false impression of rising oceans (Vicki Batts, James Delingpole, 2020-02-20)
Evidence (2020-02-20): Global average sea level has risen throughout the 20th century and continues to rise at an accelerating rate. Sea level rise primarily results from glacial ice melting and the expansion of seawater as it warms. Scientists do not arbitrarily adjust sea level data, but instead compare sea level measurements to stable benchmarks to generate accurate estimates of sea level change over time. [...] Misleading: The claim that scientists were caught "adjusting" sea level data misrepresents the process scientists use to account for potential errors in historical sea level data. [...] The claim that "scientists were caught ‘adjusting’ sea level data to create false impression of rising oceans" misrepresents approaches used by scientists to account for potential errors in historical sea level data. Instruments used to measure sea level, called tide gauges, may be replaced or moved to new locations over time. To calculate actual changes in sea level despite movements of the tide gauges, sea level data is compared to a stable benchmark at each sampling site. The process of adjusting data based on benchmarks is not arbitrary, as Thomas Frederikse explains in the reviewer comments below.
Claim: Scientists were caught 'adjusting' sea level data to create false impression of rising oceans (Vicki Batts, James Delingpole, 2020-02-20)
Evidence (2021-05-03): Story on congressman’s incorrect claims about sea level rise could have corrected them more explicitly in Science Magazine, E&E News, by Scott Waldman — 22 Jan 2019 "The comments from the members of the Committee suffer from severe inaccuracies and misconceptions, and citations of the invited climate scientist mostly address those issues.
Claim: Scientists were caught 'adjusting' sea level data to create false impression of rising oceans (Vicki Batts, James Delingpole, 2020-02-20)
Evidence (2023-10-04): In the meantime, scientists keep refining their models of sea-level changes. They also point out that the extent to which countries work together to limit release of more greenhouse gases may have a significant impact on how quickly seas rise, and how much.
Claim: Scientists were caught 'adjusting' sea level data to create false impression of rising oceans (Vicki Batts, James Delingpole, 2020-02-20)
Evidence (2021-01-15): Wall Street Journal commentary grossly misleads readers about science of sea level rise in The Wall Street Journal, by Fred Singer — 18 May 2018
Claim: Scientists were caught 'adjusting' sea level data to create false impression of rising oceans (Vicki Batts, James Delingpole, 2020-02-20)
Evidence (2023-05-11): Throughout our planet's history, sea level has risen and fallen dramatically. At times, there was no ice at the poles and the ocean was hundreds of feet higher than it is now; at other times, ice covered the planet and sea level was hundreds of feet lower. These changes are part of Earth's natural glacial cycles and have occurred over millions of years. Scientists use sediment and ice cores to learn more about sea level before the advent of tide gauges and satellites.
Claim: Scientists were caught 'adjusting' sea level data to create false impression of rising oceans (Vicki Batts, James Delingpole, 2020-02-20)
Evidence (2022-06-15): Image credit: NASA/JPL-CaltechSea Level Is Rising
Claim: Scientists were caught 'adjusting' sea level data to create false impression of rising oceans (Vicki Batts, James Delingpole, 2020-02-20)
Evidence (2022-07-20): In these cases, scientists apply "bias correction" techniques to model data, explains Dr Douglas Maraun, head of the Regional Climate Modelling and Analysis research group at the University of Graz, and co-author of a book on "Statistical Downscaling and Bias Correction for Climate Research". He tells Carbon Brief: [...] "Until about a decade ago it was quite common to adjust the fluxes between different model components – for example, the ocean and atmosphere – in every model step towards the observed fields by so-called ‘flux corrections’". [...] This reinforces that point that scientists need to be careful not to apply bias correction without understanding the underlying reason for the bias, concludes Maraun:
Claim: Solar forcings are not too small to explain twentieth century warming. In fact, their effect could be equal to or greater than the effect of CO2 in the atmosphere. (Craig Idso, Robert Carter, S. Fred Singer, 2017-03-05)
Evidence (2017-03-05): The warming influence of CO2 has been much greater than that of the Sun over the past century, and the pattern of observed climate change cannot be explained by solar forcing.
Claim: Solar forcings are not too small to explain twentieth century warming. In fact, their effect could be equal to or greater than the effect of CO2 in the atmosphere. (Craig Idso, Robert Carter, S. Fred Singer, 2017-03-05)
Evidence (2003-02-01): To see the effects of the model response to solar forcing compared to GHG + sulfate, the difference of solar + GHG + sulfate minus GHG + sulfate (solar residual) is shown in Fig. 3c. The increased global-mean warming arising from solar forcing (Fig. 1b) is manifest most markedly at high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere associated with ice-albedo feedback, with maximum values of about +0.7°C north of 65°N in the late 1940s. Contributions in the Tropics and at high southern latitudes are about +0.1°–+0.2°C. The contribution of the solar forcing to the late twentieth-century warming is again most notable at high northern latitudes between 1985 and 1995 with values of about +0.3°C north of 70°N. The high-latitude warming associated with ice-albedo feedback was noted in the earlier studies with increased solar forcing (e.g., Wetherald and Manabe 1975). Though the impact of sulfate aerosols is greatest in the northern midlatitudes where the emissions are largest (e.g., Kiehl and Briegleb 1993; Meehl et al. 1996), warming is only slightly decreased there in Fig. 3b. The effects of the well-mixed ocean and the consequently large thermal inertia inhibit high-latitude warming in the circumpolar southern regions (e.g., Cubasch et al. 2001).
Claim: Solar forcings are not too small to explain twentieth century warming. In fact, their effect could be equal to or greater than the effect of CO2 in the atmosphere. (Craig Idso, Robert Carter, S. Fred Singer, 2017-03-05)
Evidence (2023-10-17): Przybylak, R., Svyashchennikov, P.N., Uscka-Kowalkowska, J., and Wyszyński, P., Solar radiation in the Arctic during the early twentieth century warming (1921–1950): Presenting a compilation of newly available data, J. Clim., 2020, pp. 21–37. [...] Suo, L., Otterå, O.H., Bentsen, M., Gao, Y., and Johannessen, O.M., External forcing of the early 20th century Arctic warming, Tellus,Ser. A, 2013, vol. 65, no. 1, p. 20578. https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v65i0.20578 [...] early 20th century warming global warming sea ice internal natural variability solar activity volcanism anthropogenic aerosols greenhouse gases
Claim: Solar forcings are not too small to explain twentieth century warming. In fact, their effect could be equal to or greater than the effect of CO2 in the atmosphere. (Craig Idso, Robert Carter, S. Fred Singer, 2017-03-05)
Evidence (2024-05-09): Benestad and Schmidt[45] concluded that "the most likely contribution from solar forcing a global warming is 7 ± 1% for the 20th century and is negligible for warming since 1980." This paper disagreed with Scafetta and West,[46] who claimed that solar variability has a significant effect on climate forcing. Based on correlations between specific climate and solar forcing reconstructions, they argued that a "realistic climate scenario is the one described by a large preindustrial secular variability (e.g., the paleoclimate temperature reconstruction by Moberg et al.)[47] with TSI experiencing low secular variability (as the one shown by Wang et al.).[48] Under this scenario, they claimed the Sun might have contributed 50% of the observed global warming since 1900.[49] Stott et al. estimated that the residual effects of the prolonged high solar activity during the last 30 years account for between 16% and 36% of warming from 1950 to 1999.[50] [...] the most likely contribution from solar forcing a global warming is 7 ± 1% for the 20th century and is negligible for warming since 1980.
Claim: Solar forcings are not too small to explain twentieth century warming. In fact, their effect could be equal to or greater than the effect of CO2 in the atmosphere. (Craig Idso, Robert Carter, S. Fred Singer, 2017-03-05)
Evidence (2020-02-10): National Research Council Radiative Forcing of Climate Change (National Academies, 2005). [...] Etminan, M., Myhre, G., Highwood, E. J. & Shine, K. P. Radiative forcing of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide: a significant revision of the methane radiative forcing. Geophys. Res. Lett.43, 12614–12623 (2016). [...] Kiehl, J. T. Twentieth century climate model response and climate sensitivity. Geophys. Res. Lett.34, L22710 (2007).
Claim: Solar forcings are not too small to explain twentieth century warming. In fact, their effect could be equal to or greater than the effect of CO2 in the atmosphere. (Craig Idso, Robert Carter, S. Fred Singer, 2017-03-05)
Evidence (2010-06-24): Scientists are still debating whether or not the Sun’s activity increased during the latter half of the 20th century, but even the highest estimates of activity can’t account for the warming observed since about 1950. [...] Regardless, even when scientists assume that solar activity is increasing based on proxy data and the satellite record, they can’t account for all of the warming observed at the end of the twentieth century. Climate models can only reproduce the warming observed since 1950 when a rise in greenhouse gases is built into the system. [...] Rind, D., Shindell, D., Perlwitz, Ju., Lerner, P., Lonergan, P., Lean, J., and McLinden, C. (2004). The relative importance of solar and anthropogenic forcing of climate change between the Maunder Minimum and the present. Journal of Climate, 17, 906-929.
Claim: Solar forcings are not too small to explain twentieth century warming. In fact, their effect could be equal to or greater than the effect of CO2 in the atmosphere. (Craig Idso, Robert Carter, S. Fred Singer, 2017-03-05)
Evidence (2013-01-16): Hence, the mechanism appears to show why both twenty-first century and time-invariant CO2 forcing lead to similar values of φ in climate models despite the presence of transient ocean heat uptake, whereas twentieth century forcing—which has a significant spatially confined anthropogenic tropospheric aerosol component that breaches the first condition—leads to modelled values of φ that vary widely amongst models and in time. Our results suggest an explanation for the behaviour of φ when climate is forced by other regionally confined forcing scenarios such as geo-engineered changes to oceanic clouds. Our results show how land–sea contrasts in surface and boundary layer characteristics act in tandem to produce the land–sea surface warming contrast. [...] Ackerley D, Booth BBB, Knight SHE, Highwood EJ, Frame DJ, Allen MR, Rowell DP (2011) Sensitivity of twentieth-century sahel rainfall to sulfate aerosol and CO2 forcing. J Clim 24:4999–5014 [...] Shindell D, Faluvegi G (2009) Climate response to regional radiative forcing during the twentieth century. Nat Geosci 2:294–300
Claim: Solar forcings are not too small to explain twentieth century warming. In fact, their effect could be equal to or greater than the effect of CO2 in the atmosphere. (Craig Idso, Robert Carter, S. Fred Singer, 2017-03-05)
Evidence (2009-03-22): Climate response to regional radiative forcing during the twentieth century [...] Regional climate change can arise from three different effects: regional changes to the amount of radiative heating that reaches the Earth’s surface, an inhomogeneous response to globally uniform changes in radiative heating and variability without a specific forcing. The relative importance of these effects is not clear, particularly because neither the response to regional forcings nor the regional forcings themselves are well known for the twentieth century. Here we investigate the sensitivity of regional climate to changes in carbon dioxide, black carbon aerosols, sulphate aerosols and ozone in the tropics, mid-latitudes and polar regions, using a coupled ocean–atmosphere model. We find that mid- and high-latitude climate is quite sensitive to the location of the forcing. Using these relationships between forcing and response along with observations of twentieth century climate change, we reconstruct radiative forcing from aerosols in space and time. Our reconstructions broadly agree with historical emissions estimates, and can explain the differences between observed changes in Arctic temperatures and expectations from non-aerosol forcings plus unforced variability. We conclude that decreasing concentrations of sulphate aerosols and increasing concentrations of black carbon have substantially contributed to rapid Arctic warming during the past three decades. [...] Shindell, D., Faluvegi, G. Climate response to regional radiative forcing during the twentieth century.
Claim: Solar forcings are not too small to explain twentieth century warming. In fact, their effect could be equal to or greater than the effect of CO2 in the atmosphere. (Craig Idso, Robert Carter, S. Fred Singer, 2017-03-05)
Evidence (2011-07-19): The best way to understand how 20th century solar changes affected the climate system is with global climate models. [...] Using the same physics, climate models are able to include observed changes in direct solar forcing over the 20th century. To do this, they use a number of different estimates of solar forcing from different research teams. [...] Some of the patterns of change associated with solar forcing are similar to greenhouse gas driven changes, such as more rapid warming of the Arctic. However when the pace of change is also factored in, solar changes have been far too small to explain the dramatic warming of the Arctic that has been observed.