copenlu/druid huggingface dataset:
Claim: Almost half of criminals released from prison in Northern Ireland went on to re-offend within 12 months of being freed. (David Ford, 2015-11-11)
Evidence (2023-10-26): The news comes after this newspaper revealed that almost half of all people released from custody here reoffend within one report. A report by Stormont’s Department of Justice monitored more than 15,000 offenders here who received either a non-custodial disposal at court, a diversionary disposal or who were released from custody during 2020/21. While 18.8% of those included in the study reoffended within 12 months, when you look at just those who were released from custody, this reoffending rate is 49.1%.
Claim: Almost half of criminals released from prison in Northern Ireland went on to re-offend within 12 months of being freed. (David Ford, 2015-11-11)
Evidence (2022-03-02): On 11 November 2015, the Belfast Telegraph published an article claiming that "almost half of criminals released from prison in Northern Ireland went on to re-offend within 12 months of being freed." There has been continued discussion in the media about re-offending rates in Northern Ireland, and NICVA has included this issue in their Policy Manifesto that they released this year. The latest data was released by the Department of Justice in 2015, and it reports on the rates attributed to the 2012/13 cohort. The claim from the Belfast telegraph does not apply to all convicted criminals, but rather to those who actually spent time in prison. Out of 29,324 offenders that completed their sentence during that year, only 1,624 were actually released from custody. The rest served a variety of sentences, ranging from probation to the payment of monetary fines, which exclude them from the data cited by the Belfast Telegraph.
Claim: Almost half of criminals released from prison in Northern Ireland went on to re-offend within 12 months of being freed. (David Ford, 2015-11-11)
Evidence (2024-09-15): The government has defended the early release of prisoners after it emerged a former inmate allegedly sexually assaulted a woman on the same day he was freed. [...] The Ministry of Justice (MoJ) said the early release scheme was necessary because it had "inherited prisons in crisis and on the brink of collapse". Reoffenders would be punished, it added. [...] Some officials had previously warned that a percentage of those released were likely to reoffend. Earlier this month, Martin Jones, HM chief inspector of probation, said he thought there was "a certainty that some will reoffend".
Claim: Almost half of criminals released from prison in Northern Ireland went on to re-offend within 12 months of being freed. (David Ford, 2015-11-11)
Evidence (2014-07-13): Probation trusts are responsible for overseeing offenders released from prison on licence and those on community sentences made by judges and magistrates in the courts. If you are sentenced to under 12 months you are usually releases after 6 month months and the rest of your sentence is "on license". Your licence will impose certain restrictions on what you can do. The probation service do now get involved with you ( one of the new requirements of the changes in the service which are currently in hand), but what their input will be is unclear at present. [...] Probation prepares pre-sentence reports for judges and magistrates in the courts to enable them to choose the most appropriate sentence. Probation also works with victims of crimes where the offender has committed a sexual or violent offence and has been given a prison sentence of 12 months or longer. [...] These offenders are not free to come and go as they please. They have to follow strict rules and there is a curfew. This is usually from 11 pm to 7 am. Staff keep a close watch on residents and rooms are checked hourly throughout the night. Staff have direct contact with the Police if needed. Probation staff will work closely with the residents and have the opportunity to influence positive change in them and prevent reoffending. Those people in hostels also have to meet the other requirements of their Community Order or Release Order. This could include them attending group work programmes or training projects.
Claim: Almost half of criminals released from prison in Northern Ireland went on to re-offend within 12 months of being freed. (David Ford, 2015-11-11)
Evidence (2023-09-22): In addition to completing the full term of your sentence, you may be granted periods of temporary or permanent release in recognition of good conduct in custody, notably by engaging in authorised structured activities that are designed to reduce your likelihood of reoffending. [...] - The Minister for Justice must be satisfied that you are unlikely to reoffend and that you can reintegrate into the community upon release [...] You may get additional support from the Probation Service. They refer offenders to community projects around Ireland, to help them to reintegrate and resettle in the community. You can find contact details for local Probation Services.
Claim: Almost half of criminals released from prison in Northern Ireland went on to re-offend within 12 months of being freed. (David Ford, 2015-11-11)
Evidence (2018-02-06): Second, under the banner of ‘reducing reoffending’ they are committed to tackling the perennial problem of the revolving door of criminalisation —> imprisonment —> release from prison —> recriminalisation —> reimprisonment —> release. [...] Nearly half of all prisoners go on to re-offend within a year. This revolving door of crime and prison costs society £15 bn a year… I am determined to make prisons work. This requires a huge cultural and structural change within our prisons - a transformation away from offender warehouses to disciplined and purposeful centres of reform where all prisoners get a second chance at leading a good life. [...] Put this way, it seems more likely that the revolving door of reoffending - or as I prefer to call it, recriminalisation - is an inevitable consequence of the prison system, rather than a failing open to being fixed if only the right reforms are implemented.
Claim: Almost half of criminals released from prison in Northern Ireland went on to re-offend within 12 months of being freed. (David Ford, 2015-11-11)
Evidence (2024-09-18): Today, around 1,700 convicts are walking out of prison in England and Wales after 40% of their sentence, as part of the government's early release scheme aimed at freeing up capacity. [...] - The early release scheme was an "emergency decision," said business secretary Jonathan Reynolds, blaming the previous government - There is a "risk of some re-offending," the inspector of prisons Charlie Taylor told BBC News - Martin Jones, probation inspector, said the service is under a "huge amount of pressure" - The union for probation workers said some people convicted of domestic violence and sexual offences are being released early - despite government assurances - but the Ministry of Justice denies this - And prisoners who have been released have described the conditions inside jails - with one calling the cells "disgusting"
Claim: Almost half of criminals released from prison in Northern Ireland went on to re-offend within 12 months of being freed. (David Ford, 2015-11-11)
Evidence (2024-07-12): A senior police source said criminals would take advantage by committing crimes they would not usually do such as looting, while former prisoners released on licence would be more likely to reoffend because they knew they would be less likely to be recalled. [...] Alex Chalk, the previous justice secretary, has confirmed that he also prepared plans to release some prisoners after 40% of their sentence and to send fewer people to jail in the first place but these were shelved over fears of a lack of support in parliament. [...] Harriet Wistrich, the founder of the Centre for Women’s Justice, said: "Clearly there is a crisis in prisons that needs to be addressed. However, where someone represents a danger or risk then early release could have disastrous consequences, particularly where the probation service and adequate supervision of those released on licence is also on its knees."
Claim: Almost half of criminals released from prison in Northern Ireland went on to re-offend within 12 months of being freed. (David Ford, 2015-11-11)
Evidence (2020-10-16): Release Release on licence Most prisoners in prison on determinate, i.e. fixed, sentences will be released at the half-way point of their sentence and will spend the remaining months or years of their sentence ‘on licence’. Being released on licence allows the prisoner to reintegrate into the community, rebuild family ties and helps to prevent re-offending. What does being ‘on licence’ mean? Being released ‘on licence’ means that for the rest of their sentence the released prisoner must stick to certain conditions. Time spent ‘on licence’ in the community is supervised by probation. Before release from prison the prisoner will be given the licence and have the conditions explained. Copies of the licence will also be kept by the prison as well as being sent to the probation supervisor. Copies will also be sent to the local Police force in the area where they will live and to the National Identification Service at the Metropolitan Police. The paper licence received by the prisoner will include the seven standard conditions set out below as well as any extra conditions that the Offender Manager judges necessary to enable progress and prevent future issues. The prison should fully explain all of the licence conditions before release. If the licence conditions are broken the released prisoner may be sent back to prison. What are the standard licence conditions?
Claim: Almost half of criminals released from prison in Northern Ireland went on to re-offend within 12 months of being freed. (David Ford, 2015-11-11)
Evidence (2024-09-11): The early releases come as the chief inspector of prisons, Charlie Taylor, predicted that some former inmates will become homeless, which could increase their chances of reoffending. [...] He said: "It’s inevitable that some of these prisoners will get recalled to custody and it’s inevitable that some of them will go out homeless. If people are coming out, they’re not properly prepared, and they’re homeless, then what we’ll see is the danger that they’ll commit more offences, or that they breach their bail conditions, in which case they’ll end up back inside again." [...] He said: "Prisoners are locked in their cells for long periods of time, relationships with prison officers are often transactional, and most importantly of all they’re not getting involved in the sort of purposeful activity, the education, the work, the training, that is going to make them less likely to reoffend when they come out."
Claim: Almost half of criminals released from prison in Northern Ireland went on to re-offend within 12 months of being freed. (David Ford, 2015-11-11)
Evidence (2024-01-12): And, of course, if you fail to repair, you shouldn’t be surprised if catastrophe ensues. Prison is, according to popular belief (among those who believe in prisons), supposed to rehabilitate inmates. Recidivism rates, however, tell a different story. If prison is so brilliant, why would so many released prisoners re-offend? Many people cleave to the fantasy that if prison were even more punitive, that would dissuade released prisoners from re-offending. But after twenty-eight years of teaching, I have yet to hear a single prisoner tell me he was improved by punishment. Nobody has ever said to me, "Suffering made me better." If anything, it has been the opposite, "Suffering made me worse. It made me want to kick against the system." On the other hand, what prisoners have said when we have gotten to the subject of the benefits of prison (and I have had such conversations) is that kindness, tolerance, and humane interaction were the beginning of their transformation, and when it came to deep repair, it was education that did it most.
Claim: Almost half of criminals released from prison in Northern Ireland went on to re-offend within 12 months of being freed. (David Ford, 2015-11-11)
Evidence (2024-05-20): The Prison Radio Association has been awarded the grant by The National Lottery Community Fund, the largest community funder in the UK, to continue its Life After Prison podcast series, which provides advice and guidance to former and current prisoners, as they look to build positive, crime-free lives after release from prison. [...] Tim Colman, Director of Development at The Prison Radio Association, said: "Leaving prison can be the start of a complicated and confusing period in someone’s life. Most prison leavers have to navigate a range of appointments and requirements, find employment in difficult circumstances, and rebuild family relationships. The odds can be massively stacked against them, which is why it is no surprise that more than half of all prisoners serving sentences of 12 months or less go on to reoffend. [...] "Our ambition is to take an equity-based approach to our work, investing most in places, people and communities experiencing poverty, disadvantage and discrimination. I’m delighted our funding is being used in this way to help prison leavers reintegrate, improving their lives and strengthening society."
Claim: Almost half of criminals released from prison in Northern Ireland went on to re-offend within 12 months of being freed. (David Ford, 2015-11-11)
Evidence (2024-10-02): Anyone released will be monitored by the Probation Service, and this could involve the use of electronic tagging and curfews. [...] It emerged in October that 57 of the 477 prisoners who were freed in June and July were back in prison before their original release date. [...] Before he was appointed as the new prisons minister, James Timpson told Channel 4 news, external that he wanted to break the cycle of re-offending by giving ex-offenders more job opportunities.
Claim: According to polling, most people planning to cast a first preference vote for the UUP in May’s Assembly election will switch their vote to nationalists before they provide a transfer to other unionist parties. (Unionist Voice, 2022-04-04)
Evidence (2022-04-04): Only 7% of UUP voters plan to switch to a nationalist party first, according to the survey. While 31% say their first move will be to Alliance, that isn’t a nationalist party. 42% intend to first transfer to another unionist party: DUP, TUV or the NI Conservatives
Claim: According to polling, most people planning to cast a first preference vote for the UUP in May’s Assembly election will switch their vote to nationalists before they provide a transfer to other unionist parties. (Unionist Voice, 2022-04-04)
Evidence (2024-10-09): Keep an eye on the gender gap and a possible racial realignment in November. [...] The adjusted polling average with uncertainty intervals that account for potential movement in the race between now and Election Day. This does not account for the chance that the polls systematically underestimate one candidate. [...] Unusual and not-so-unusual scenarios
Claim: According to polling, most people planning to cast a first preference vote for the UUP in May’s Assembly election will switch their vote to nationalists before they provide a transfer to other unionist parties. (Unionist Voice, 2022-04-04)
Evidence (2020-08-28): Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup. Poll(s) of the fortnight
Claim: According to polling, most people planning to cast a first preference vote for the UUP in May’s Assembly election will switch their vote to nationalists before they provide a transfer to other unionist parties. (Unionist Voice, 2022-04-04)
Evidence (2020-10-30): [Live Updates: We’re Tracking The Vote And Voting Problems] [...] These kinds of attitudes were common among the young voters we spoke with. That’s one reason why — particularly considering the high barriers they typically face — young voter turnout might continue to ebb and flow, even if we see record-high turnout this year. And many young people will likely continue to feel disenchanted with politics, even if they keep casting a ballot. [...] Tony Chow contributed reporting.
Claim: According to polling, most people planning to cast a first preference vote for the UUP in May’s Assembly election will switch their vote to nationalists before they provide a transfer to other unionist parties. (Unionist Voice, 2022-04-04)
Evidence (2022-08-23): Demographic differences in voters’ preference are largely consistent with recent presidential and midterm elections. [...] Older voters are much more likely than younger voters to say they have given a lot of thought to the elections at this stage of the campaign. Half of voters ages 65 and older say this, compared with 41% of voters 50 to 64, 25% of those 30 to 49, and just 20% of voters under 30. [...] About six-in-ten voters say that gun policy (62%), violent crime (60%), health care (60%), voting policies (59%) and education (58%) are very important to their vote.
Claim: According to polling, most people planning to cast a first preference vote for the UUP in May’s Assembly election will switch their vote to nationalists before they provide a transfer to other unionist parties. (Unionist Voice, 2022-04-04)
Evidence (2024-10-08): Skip to main content [...] Overall, many voters seem to be most in favour of a system known as proportional representation, in which political parties are represented in governments roughly according to their vote share. Voters in democracies that use this system, such as Denmark and Ireland, tend to have relatively high approval ratings for democracy in their nation, and relatively high turnouts. But this pattern is clearest in wealthy countries. There are drawbacks to proportional representation and many nations have stuck with other systems such as ‘first past the post’ (FPTP) and its variants. [...] Giving the public what it wants
Claim: According to polling, most people planning to cast a first preference vote for the UUP in May’s Assembly election will switch their vote to nationalists before they provide a transfer to other unionist parties. (Unionist Voice, 2022-04-04)
Evidence (2024-09-06): A first-preference is a voter's most-preferred candidate.[1][2][3][4] In certain ranked systems such as first preference plurality, ranked-choice voting (RCV), and the single transferable vote, first preferences for a candidate are considered most important and prioritized heavily. This incentivizes pandering to the political base or "core support" as a result of the center squeeze effect. Methods like Condorcet voting, rated voting, and the Borda count do not exhibit such effects. Methods like anti-plurality voting and Coombs' method have the opposite effect, being dominated by a voter's bottom rankings and so tending to elect the "least offensive" candidates. First-preference votes are used by psephologists and the print and broadcast media to broadly describe the state of the parties at elections and the swing between elections.[4][5][6] The term is much-used in Australian politics, where ranked voting has been universal at federal, state, and local levels since the 1920s. References [edit]- ^ "Explainer: What is preferential voting?". Special Broadcasting Service. Retrieved 10 August 2024.
Claim: According to polling, most people planning to cast a first preference vote for the UUP in May’s Assembly election will switch their vote to nationalists before they provide a transfer to other unionist parties. (Unionist Voice, 2022-04-04)
Evidence (2024-10-09): Who is leading national polls? [...] While these national polls are a useful guide as to how popular a candidate is across the country as a whole, they're not necessarily an accurate way to predict the result of the election. [...] Can we trust the polls?
Claim: According to polling, most people planning to cast a first preference vote for the UUP in May’s Assembly election will switch their vote to nationalists before they provide a transfer to other unionist parties. (Unionist Voice, 2022-04-04)
Evidence (2024-10-09): The same is true of other sources of non-sampling error. The group of people pollsters can reach by using live telephone interviewers may have different voting intentions than those they can reach by automated phone calls, or via the internet. Individual pollsters may make methodological choices, such as weighting schemes, that consistently lead to more or less favourable results for a particular political party. [...] Putting the pieces together [...] Like all models, our forecast relies on the assumption that the historical relationships that have governed voter behaviour and pollster accuracy in the past will continue into the future. In politics, unlike physics, this is not guaranteed. Sooner or later, voters will do something that past precedents implied was exceedingly unlikely, and models like ours will be subjected to a fresh round of criticism. But as long as such "black-swan" events happen roughly as much as we expect them to—neither too often nor too infrequently—our model will be doing its job. And if our stated probabilities do wind up diverging from the results, we welcome the opportunity to learn from our mistakes and do better next time.■
Claim: According to polling, most people planning to cast a first preference vote for the UUP in May’s Assembly election will switch their vote to nationalists before they provide a transfer to other unionist parties. (Unionist Voice, 2022-04-04)
Evidence (2023-11-29): Close to half of young people say they’re struggling with mental health issues like loneliness or lack of confidence, and those who do are less likely to vote. [...] Likelihood to vote is slightly lower, but still strong (51% extremely likely) among the younger 18-24 age group. That is a promising sign that speaks to the level of interest in participation among many newly eligible voters, many of whom will still need to be registered and mobilized. [...] - It’s early in the election cycle, and some young people’s voter preferences could shift. The very large share of undecided voters among youth overall suggests a need for more information and outreach that will help them settle on a candidate.
Claim: According to polling, most people planning to cast a first preference vote for the UUP in May’s Assembly election will switch their vote to nationalists before they provide a transfer to other unionist parties. (Unionist Voice, 2022-04-04)
Evidence (2024-09-10): Here’s what decades of debates, polling and research tell us: [...] On the whole, research suggests the answer is mostly no. [...] Watching the debate helped 7 percent of respondents who had not decided who to vote for to make a decision. Only 3.5 percent of respondents switched from one candidate to another.
Claim: According to polling, most people planning to cast a first preference vote for the UUP in May’s Assembly election will switch their vote to nationalists before they provide a transfer to other unionist parties. (Unionist Voice, 2022-04-04)
Evidence (2024-10-04): Americans will head to the polls in November to elect the next US president. The vote will be closely watched around the world. [...] The period after the election is know as the transition, if there is a change of president. [...] Readers in the UK can sign up here. Those outside the UK can sign up here.
Claim: According to polling, most people planning to cast a first preference vote for the UUP in May’s Assembly election will switch their vote to nationalists before they provide a transfer to other unionist parties. (Unionist Voice, 2022-04-04)
Evidence (2024-09-24): The massive political difference of early and Election Day voters is the latest evidence of a dramatic and enduring shift in the Trump years. [...] But while the share of voters planning to vote early has dropped between the end of 2020 and now, the major partisan split remains.