copenlu/druid huggingface dataset:
Claim: according, again, to the official figures—during this past 10 years, if anything, mean global temperature, average world temperature, has slightly declined (Nigel Lawson, 2017-08-10)
Evidence (2024-09-19): A new study co-led by the Smithsonian and the University of Arizona offers the most detailed glimpse yet of how Earth’s surface temperature has changed over the past 485 million years. In a paper published today, Sept. 19, in the journal Science, a team of researchers, including paleobiologists Scott Wing and Brian Huber from the Smithsonian’s National Museum of Natural History, produce a curve of global mean surface temperature (GMST) across deep time—the Earth’s ancient past stretching over many millions of years. The new curve reveals that Earth’s temperature has varied more than previously thought over much of the Phanerozoic Eon, the past 540 million years of geologic time when life has diversified, populated land and endured multiple mass extinctions. The curve also confirms that Earth’s temperature is strongly correlated to the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
Claim: according, again, to the official figures—during this past 10 years, if anything, mean global temperature, average world temperature, has slightly declined (Nigel Lawson, 2017-08-10)
Evidence (2017-08-10): I am wondering which official figures Lord Lawson speaks about since the year with the hottest global mean temperature is currently 2016, the second hottest is 2015, and third is 2014 according to data sets from NASA, the Climatic Research Unit, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. In fact, according to these data sets the last 10 years saw some of the most rapid global mean temperature increases in observed history. Below is a figure that shows the data from NASA. [...] This statement is not true. The official figures do not show that the global mean temperature "has slightly declined". In fact they show the opposite – global mean temperature has increased during the past 10 years. The last 3 years were warmer than the previous 7 and indeed were the warmest in record, and this year is also shaping up to be nearly as warm (probably not quite as warm as last year since the influence of the El Nino has passed, but still a very warm year). This is very clearly seen in the Met Office dataset, which happens to be shown prominently on the websites for Lord Lawson’s organisations, the Global Warming Policy Foundation and the Global Warming Policy Forum – so his claim is contradicted by information that headlines his own websites.
Claim: according, again, to the official figures—during this past 10 years, if anything, mean global temperature, average world temperature, has slightly declined (Nigel Lawson, 2017-08-10)
Evidence (2024-01-18): Given the tremendous size and heat capacity of the global oceans, it takes a massive amount of added heat energy to raise Earth’s average yearly surface temperature even a small amount. The roughly 2-degree Fahrenheit (1 degrees Celsius) increase in global average surface temperature that has occurred since the pre-industrial era (1850-1900 in NOAA's record) might seem small, but it means a significant increase in accumulated heat. [...] Though warming has not been uniform across the planet, the upward trend in the globally averaged temperature shows that more areas are warming than cooling. According to NOAA's 2023 Annual Climate Report the combined land and ocean temperature has increased at an average rate of 0.11° Fahrenheit (0.06° Celsius) per decade since 1850, or about 2° F in total. The rate of warming since 1982 is more than three times as fast: 0.36° F (0.20° C) per decade. [...] According to the 2017 U.S. Climate Science Special Report, if yearly emissions continue to increase rapidly, as they have since 2000, models project that by the end of this century, global temperature will be at least 5 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than the 1901-1960 average, and possibly as much as 10.2 degrees warmer. If annual emissions increase more slowly and begin to decline significantly by 2050, models project temperatures would still be at least 2.4 degrees warmer than the first half of the 20th century, and possibly up to 5.9 degrees warmer.
Claim: according, again, to the official figures—during this past 10 years, if anything, mean global temperature, average world temperature, has slightly declined (Nigel Lawson, 2017-08-10)
Evidence (2022-01-31): Over the past 50 years, solar energy reaching the Earth has actually declined slightly, while temperatures have increased dramatically. [...] Global mean surface temperatures from Berkeley Earth (black dots) and modelled influence of all combined natural (blue line) and human (red line) radiative forcings with their respective uncertainties (shaded areas) for the period from 1850 to 2017. The combination of all natural and human forcings (grey line) is also shown. See methods at the end of the article for details. Chart by Carbon Brief using Highcharts. [...] Land temperatures have warmed considerably faster than average global temperatures over the past century, with temperatures reaching around 1.7C above pre-industrial levels in recent years. The land temperature record also goes back further in time than the global temperature record, though the period prior to 1850 is subject to much greater uncertainties.
Claim: according, again, to the official figures—during this past 10 years, if anything, mean global temperature, average world temperature, has slightly declined (Nigel Lawson, 2017-08-10)
Evidence (2022-06-09): The Report notes that, since 1980, greenhouse gas emissions have doubled, raising average global temperatures by at least 0.7 degrees Celsius – with climate change already impacting nature from the level of ecosystems to that of genetics – impacts expected to increase over the coming decades, in some cases surpassing the impact of land and sea use change and other drivers. [...] Climate Change - 1 degree Celsius: average global temperature difference in 2017 compared to pre-industrial levels, rising +/-0.2 (+/-0.1) degrees Celsius per decade - >3 mm: annual average global sea level rise over the past two decades - 16-21 cm: rise in global average sea level since 1900 - 100% increase since 1980 in greenhouse gas emissions, raising average global temperature by at least 0.7 degree - 40%: rise in carbon footprint of tourism (to 4.5Gt of carbon dioxide) from 2009 to 2013 - 8%: of total greenhouse gas emissions are from transport and food consumption related to tourism - 5%: estimated fraction of species at risk of extinction from 2°C warming alone, rising to 16% at 4.3°C warming - Even for global warming of 1.5 to 2 degrees, the majority of terrestrial species ranges are projected to shrink profoundly.
Claim: according, again, to the official figures—during this past 10 years, if anything, mean global temperature, average world temperature, has slightly declined (Nigel Lawson, 2017-08-10)
Evidence (2016-02-01): Cold extremes have become less severe over the past century. For example, the coldest daily temperature of the year has increased at most locations in the contiguous United States (Figure 6.3). All regions experienced net increases (Table 6.2), with the largest rises in the Northern Great Plains and the Northwest (roughly 4.5°F [2.5°C]), and the smallest in the Southeast (about 1.0°F [0.6°C]). In general, there were increases throughout the record, with a slight acceleration in recent decades (Figure 6.3). The temperature of extremely cold days (1-in-10 year events) generally exhibited the same pattern of increases as the coldest daily temperature of the year. Consistent with these increases, the number of cool nights per year (those with a minimum temperature below the 10th percentile for 1961–1990) declined in all regions, with much of the West having decreases of roughly two weeks. The frequency of cold waves (6-day periods with a minimum temperature below the 10th percentile for 1961–1990) has fallen over the past century (Figure 6.4). The frequency of intense cold waves (4-day, 1-in-5 year events) peaked in the 1980s and then reached record-low levels in the 2000s.17
Claim: according, again, to the official figures—during this past 10 years, if anything, mean global temperature, average world temperature, has slightly declined (Nigel Lawson, 2017-08-10)
Evidence (2022-06-15): The planet's average surface temperature has risen about 2 degrees Fahrenheit (1 degrees Celsius) since the late 19th century, a change driven largely by increased carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere and other human activities.4 Most of the warming occurred in the past 40 years, with the seven most recent years being the warmest. The years 2016 and 2020 are tied for the warmest year on record.5 [...] Global sea level rose about 8 inches (20 centimeters) in the last century. The rate in the last two decades, however, is nearly double that of the last century and accelerating slightly every year.10
Claim: according, again, to the official figures—during this past 10 years, if anything, mean global temperature, average world temperature, has slightly declined (Nigel Lawson, 2017-08-10)
Evidence (2012-04-04): Human-induced warming reached approximately 1°C (likely between 0.8°C and 1.2°C) above pre-industrial levels in 2017, increasing at 0.2°C (likely between 0.1°C and 0.3°C) per decade (high confidence). Global warming is defined in this report as an increase in combined surface air and sea surface temperatures averaged over the globe and over a 30-year period. Unless otherwise specified, warming is expressed relative to the period 1850–1900, used as an approximation of pre-industrial temperatures in AR5. For periods shorter than 30 years, warming refers to the estimated average temperature over the 30 years centred on that shorter period, accounting for the impact of any temperature fluctuations or trend within those 30 years. Accordingly, warming from pre- industrial levels to the decade 2006–2015 is assessed to be 0.87°C (likely between 0.75°C and 0.99°C). Since 2000, the estimated level of human-induced warming has been equal to the level of observed warming with a likely range of ±20% accounting for uncertainty due to contributions from solar and volcanic activity over the historical period (high confidence). {1.2.1}
Claim: according, again, to the official figures—during this past 10 years, if anything, mean global temperature, average world temperature, has slightly declined (Nigel Lawson, 2017-08-10)
Evidence (2024-03-18): The WMO report confirmed that 2023 was the warmest year on record, with the global average near-surface temperature at 1.45 °Celsius (with a margin of uncertainty of ± 0.12 °C) above the pre-industrial baseline. It was the warmest ten-year period on record. [...] The ten-year average 2014–2023 global temperature is 1.20±0.12°C above the 1850–1900 average. Globally, every month from June to December was record warm for the respective month. September 2023 was particularly noteworthy, surpassing the previous global record for September by a wide margin (0.46 to 0.54 °C). [...] The rate of global mean sea level rise in the past ten years (2014–2023) is more than twice the rate of sea level rise in the first decade of the satellite record (1993–2002).
Claim: according, again, to the official figures—during this past 10 years, if anything, mean global temperature, average world temperature, has slightly declined (Nigel Lawson, 2017-08-10)
Evidence (2010-06-03): Global warming is the unusually rapid increase in Earth’s average surface temperature over the past century primarily due to the greenhouse gases released as people burn fossil fuels. The global average surface temperature rose 0.6 to 0.9 degrees Celsius (1.1 to 1.6° F) between 1906 and 2005, and the rate of temperature increase has nearly doubled in the last 50 years. Temperatures are certain to go up further. [...] As the Earth moved out of ice ages over the past million years, the global temperature rose a total of 4 to 7 degrees Celsius over about 5,000 years. In the past century alone, the temperature has climbed 0.7 degrees Celsius, roughly ten times faster than the average rate of ice-age-recovery warming. [...] Each cycle exhibits subtle differences in intensity and duration. As of early 2010, the solar brightness since 2005 has been slightly lower, not higher, than it was during the previous 11-year minimum in solar activity, which occurred in the late 1990s. This implies that the Sun’s impact between 2005 and 2010 might have been to slightly decrease the warming that greenhouse emissions alone would have caused.
Claim: “Americans are dropping dead” from COVID-19 vaccines; vaccines impair fertility, pregnancy, infant survival (James Thorp, 2023-11-11)
Evidence (2023-11-11): Ample evidence from safety surveillance and published studies continue to show that COVID-19 vaccines are safe and effective, and that their benefits outweigh their risks. The vaccines are also safe before and during pregnancy, and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommend that people who are pregnant or willing to conceive receive a COVID-19 vaccine.
Claim: “Americans are dropping dead” from COVID-19 vaccines; vaccines impair fertility, pregnancy, infant survival (James Thorp, 2023-11-11)
Evidence (2024-03-18): This chart presents the COVID-19 death rate among unvaccinated people (0 doses received), people vaccinated without an updated bivalent booster, and those vaccinated with an updated bivalent booster. [...] This chart presents the COVID-19 death rate among people who are not fully vaccinated, among fully vaccinated people, and among those who additionally received a booster dose. [...] BibTeX citation @article{owid-covid-deaths-by-vaccination, author = {Edouard Mathieu and Max Roser}, title = {How do death rates from COVID-19 differ between people who are vaccinated and those who are not?}, journal = {Our World in Data}, year = {2021}, note = {https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths-by-vaccination}
Claim: “Americans are dropping dead” from COVID-19 vaccines; vaccines impair fertility, pregnancy, infant survival (James Thorp, 2023-11-11)
Evidence (2023-11-06): The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that more than 1.1 million Americans have died from COVID-19. COVID-19 vaccines have substantially reduced the risk of severe disease and death, according to multiple studies, even as more transmissible and immune-evasive variants have led to widespread infections. [...] The article referenced a widely shared Substack post from Steve Kirsch, a former tech entrepreneur whose current enterprise is spreading vaccine misinformation online. Kirsch based this latest false claim about deaths from COVID-19 vaccines on a survey shared on his Substack, in which he asked readers how many people in their extended families they "believe" had been killed by COVID-19 vaccines, and compared that with the number readers said had died from COVID-19. [...] "People receiving COVID-19 vaccines are less likely to die from COVID-19 and its complications and are at no greater risk of death from non-COVID causes, than unvaccinated people," the CDC website says. "CDC scientists and partners have performed detailed assessments of deaths after COVID-19 vaccination and made the information available to healthcare providers and the public."
Claim: “Americans are dropping dead” from COVID-19 vaccines; vaccines impair fertility, pregnancy, infant survival (James Thorp, 2023-11-11)
Evidence (2023-06-20): The share of COVID-19 deaths among those who are vaccinated has risen. In fall 2021, about 3 in 10 adults dying of COVID-19 were vaccinated or boosted. But by January 2022, as we showed in an analysis posted on the Peterson-KFF Health System Tracker, about 4 in 10 deaths were vaccinated or boosted. By April 2022, the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) data show that about 6 in 10 adults dying of COVID-19 were vaccinated or boosted, and that’s remained true through at least August 2022 (the most recent month of data). [...] CDC and other researchers have shown that protection from COVID-19 vaccines can diminish, or wane, over time and booster doses are needed to maintain a robust immune response. Although the data we use in this analysis are not broken out by time since last vaccination, given the plateauing vaccination rate, it is likely that many of the vaccinated people who died of COVID-19 had the primary series or a booster many months or even over a year earlier, meaning they were less protected against severe illness than they once were.
Claim: “Americans are dropping dead” from COVID-19 vaccines; vaccines impair fertility, pregnancy, infant survival (James Thorp, 2023-11-11)
Evidence (2022-05-16): As the U.S. nears one million deaths from COVID-19, analysis finds nearly a third of those deaths could have been prevented — if people had been vaccinated. [...] ALLISON AUBREY, BYLINE: Oh, good morning. I think the great paradox is that the U.S. has played a huge role, an outsized role, in creating the vaccines and creating the medicines, the way out of the pandemic, thanks to the ingenuity of scientists and vaccine makers. But simultaneously, we've been hit so hard due to fragmentation and inequalities in our health care system, as well as vaccine hesitancy, often fueled by politically motivated misinformation. Consider this, A - if you tally up the number of unvaccinated people who died from COVID after vaccines were open to all adults last year, it's about 319,000 lives lost, according to a Brown University analysis. That is nearly one-third of all COVID deaths in the U.S., people who could be alive if they'd gotten vaccinated. I talked to a couple of doctors about this, Nicole Baldwin, a pediatrician in Cincinnati, and Calvin Johnson in Los Angeles.
Claim: “Americans are dropping dead” from COVID-19 vaccines; vaccines impair fertility, pregnancy, infant survival (James Thorp, 2023-11-11)
Evidence (2022-02-09): As of early December, unvaccinated adults were about 97 times more likely to die from COVID-19 than fully vaccinated people who had received boosters, according to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data. But a Twitter user falsely implied that the death rate for the unvaccinated included people who had only one or two doses of a vaccine. The CDC said "unvaccinated" means someone has "not been verified to have received COVID-19 vaccine." [...] The CDC says that, as of Dec. 4, the weekly COVID-19 death rate among unvaccinated adults was 9.74 per 100,000 population, and the rate was 0.1 per 100,000 population for people 18 and older who were fully vaccinated with a booster dose. [...] What’s more, the CDC separately tracks fully vaccinated people who have only received the primary vaccination series. As of Dec. 4, the weekly COVID-19 death rate among adults "fully vaccinated without booster dose" was 0.71 per 100,000 — which was about seven times higher than the rate for those fully vaccinated who also had received a booster shot.
Claim: “Americans are dropping dead” from COVID-19 vaccines; vaccines impair fertility, pregnancy, infant survival (James Thorp, 2023-11-11)
Evidence (2022-11-30): A recent Washington Post headline about vaccinated Americans comprising the majority of COVID-19 deaths has been shared widely on social media to suggest that getting vaccinated is worthless. [...] It is true that people vaccinated against COVID-19 now comprise the majority of COVID-19 deaths in the U.S., but that’s been the case since April, and it is not a verdict on vaccine effectiveness, said Cynthia Cox, vice president at the Kaiser Family Foundation. Cox conducted the analysis for The Washington Post, updating numbers that she and others had written about in April for KFF. [...] Things have been heading in that direction for a while, with vaccinated Americans steadily making up a greater share of COVID-19 deaths, according to an article Cox co-authored for KFF in April.
Claim: “Americans are dropping dead” from COVID-19 vaccines; vaccines impair fertility, pregnancy, infant survival (James Thorp, 2023-11-11)
Evidence (2022-01-23): COVID-19 Vaccination and Non–COVID-19 Mortality Risk — Seven Integrated Health Care Organizations, United States, December 14, 2020–July 31, 2021 [...] Although deaths after COVID-19 vaccination have been reported to the Vaccine Adverse Events Reporting System, few studies have been conducted to evaluate mortality not associated with COVID-19 among vaccinated and unvaccinated groups. [...] Suggested citation for this article: Xu S, Huang R, Sy LS, et al. COVID-19 Vaccination and Non–COVID-19 Mortality Risk — Seven Integrated Health Care Organizations, United States, December 14, 2020–July 31, 2021. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2021;70:1520–1524. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.15585/mmwr.mm7043e2.
Claim: “Americans are dropping dead” from COVID-19 vaccines; vaccines impair fertility, pregnancy, infant survival (James Thorp, 2023-11-11)
Evidence (2024-02-20): Looking at COVID data in recent months, it may appear that a significant proportion of the people who have died of COVID were vaccinated against the disease. But it is important to put those numbers in context. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has compiled data from 28 geographically representative state and local health departments that keep track of COVID death rates among people age 12 and older in relation to their vaccination status, including whether or not they got a booster dose, and age group. Each week in March, on average, a reported 644 people in this data set died of COVID. Of them, 261 were vaccinated with either just a primary round of shots—two doses of an mRNA vaccine or a single dose of Johnson & Johnson’s vaccine—or with that primary series and at least one shot of a booster. [...] It is also important to consider the ages of those who are dying. People 65 and older make up the group that is both the most likely to be vaccinated (and boosted) and the most likely to die of COVID. (Being older is one of the biggest risk factors for severe COVID because the immune system weakens with age.) So when you separate the age groups, it becomes even clearer that vaccination reduces the risk of death. And because immune protection from vaccination wanes with time, and because some older people do not mount a good immune response to the primary series, being boosted reduces that risk even further.
Claim: “Americans are dropping dead” from COVID-19 vaccines; vaccines impair fertility, pregnancy, infant survival (James Thorp, 2023-11-11)
Evidence (2022-05-13): These figures come from an analysis released Friday by researchers at Brown University and Microsoft AI Health — shared exclusively with NPR — that estimates the portion of vaccine-preventable deaths in each state since COVID-19 vaccines became available at the start of 2021. [...] The total for the country is stark: Many of the nearly 1 million COVID deaths took place in 2020 before the vaccines were available. But of the more than 641,000 people who died after vaccines were available, half of those deaths could have been averted – 318,981 – had every eligible adult gotten vaccinated. And those numbers are even more striking in certain states where more than half of deaths could have been avoided. [...] The national number of vaccine-preventable COVID deaths calculated by Brown and Microsoft exceeds an earlier analysis from the Kaiser Family Foundation, which put that number at 234,000. Cynthia Cox, director of the Peterson-Kaiser Health System Tracker and a co-author of that analysis, tells NPR that differences in methodology may explain the discrepancy.