copenlu/druid huggingface dataset:
Claim: The temperature is not rising nearly as fast as the alarmist computer models predicted. You know, it’s much, much less, factors of 2 or 3 less. (William Happer, 2017-04-25)
Evidence (2019-12-14): Alarming press releases are issued about each new climate model projection that predicts future catastrophes from famine, mass migrations, catastrophic fires, etc. However these alarming scenarios of the 21st century climate change require that, like the White Queen in Alice and Wonderland, we believe ‘six impossible things before breakfast’. [...] With this massive range of uncertainty in the values of equilibrium climate sensitivity, the lowest value among the climate models is 2.3oC, with few models having values below 3oC. Hence the lower end of the range of ECS is not covered by the climate models, resulting in temperature projections for the 21st century that are biased high, with a smaller range relative to the range of uncertainty in ECS. [...] To further complicate climate model projections for the 21st century, the climate models focus only on manmade climate change – they make no attempt to predict natural climate variations from the sun’s output, volcanic eruptions and long-term variations in ocean circulation patterns. We have no idea how natural climate variability will play out in the 21st century, and whether or not natural variability will dominate over manmade warming.
Claim: Carbon dioxide does not cause global warming, scientists are 90% sure it’s the Sun; The climate problems blamed on carbon dioxide (such as ocean acidification and negative impacts on polar bears) are not real (Willie Soon, 2024-01-22)
Evidence (2024-01-22): The causes of climate change and global warming are well-known among the international scientific community. Scientific consensus based on overwhelming evidence, beyond reasonable doubt, shows that anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are the main driver of current global warming, not the Sun. Elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide has multiple direct and indirect impacts on the hydrosphere and biosphere, including ocean acidification and arctic sea ice loss due to global warming which affects polar bears.
Claim: Carbon dioxide does not cause global warming, scientists are 90% sure it’s the Sun; The climate problems blamed on carbon dioxide (such as ocean acidification and negative impacts on polar bears) are not real (Willie Soon, 2024-01-22)
Evidence (2017-03-09): EPA chief says carbon dioxide not a primary cause of global warming WASHINGTON -- The new chief of the Environmental Protection Agency said Thursday he does not believe that carbon dioxide is a primary contributor to global warming, a statement at odds with mainstream scientific consensus and his own agency. [...] "So, no, I would not agree that (carbon dioxide) is a primary contributor to the global warming that we see," Pruitt told CNBC’s "Squawk Box."
Claim: Carbon dioxide does not cause global warming, scientists are 90% sure it’s the Sun; The climate problems blamed on carbon dioxide (such as ocean acidification and negative impacts on polar bears) are not real (Willie Soon, 2024-01-22)
Evidence (2017-03-10): The conclusion rests on basic physics known since the 19th century, when physical scientists first recognized that carbon dioxide, then a recently discovered gas, could act as a sort of greenhouse, preventing heat introduced by the Sun from escaping back as thermal radiation into space—the "greenhouse effect." The heat trapped by carbon dioxide warms our oceans and atmosphere. This effect is what enables life on this planet, keeping Earth at a livable global temperature. But changes in the concentrations of these gases change the amount of heat that remains here. [...] That this global warming phenomenon is largely caused by the world’s use of fossil fuels was documented by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which represents the scientists of nearly all the Earth’s nations, and whose findings have been officially endorsed by basically all of the world’s national governments. The conclusion also comes from other international bodies such as the World Meteorological Organization, and within the United States, from our universities, private research institutions, and all the relevant government agencies and advisory bodies, including NASA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the U.S. Geological Survey, the National Academy of Sciences, and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. The EPA designated carbon dioxide as a dangerous pollutant, and the U.S. judiciary upheld the designation.
Claim: Carbon dioxide does not cause global warming, scientists are 90% sure it’s the Sun; The climate problems blamed on carbon dioxide (such as ocean acidification and negative impacts on polar bears) are not real (Willie Soon, 2024-01-22)
Evidence (2021-10-25): Greenhouse gases - which trap the Sun's heat - are the crucial link between temperature rise and human activities. The most important is carbon dioxide (CO2), because of its abundance in the atmosphere. We can also tell it's CO2 trapping the Sun's energy. Satellites show less heat from the Earth escaping into space at precisely the wavelengths at which CO2 absorbs radiated energy. [...] They reveal there would have been little global warming - and possibly some cooling - over the 20th and 21st Centuries, if only natural factors had been influencing the climate.
Claim: Carbon dioxide does not cause global warming, scientists are 90% sure it’s the Sun; The climate problems blamed on carbon dioxide (such as ocean acidification and negative impacts on polar bears) are not real (Willie Soon, 2024-01-22)
Evidence (2019-07-02): The relationship between atmospheric CO2 levels and climate change is often perceived as a controversial subject. While there’s no real disagreement among climate scientists – around 90% fully agree that human activity is clearly responsible for climate change – in the United States in 2016, barely 50% of the general public came to the same conclusion. Adding to the general confusion, highly active "climate-change deniers" claim that temperature has evolved independently of CO2 atmospheric concentrations through Earth’s history, and that therefore today’s rising CO2 levels are not an issue. So did scientists get the story wrong? No. CO2 has long contributed to controlling the Earth’s climate, and its rising concentration in the atmosphere and oceans is a major threat to humanity. [...] As a result of the pCO2 increase, the average surface temperature has already increased by almost 1°C between 1901 and 2012. The Earth’s surface has been much warmer than today in the past and it will eventually cool off. However, the consequences of the short-term changes are disastrous. In addition to higher surface temperatures, extreme weather events, ocean acidification, ice melting and sea-level rise are about to significantly disrupt our daily lives and harms the ecosystems around us.
Claim: Carbon dioxide does not cause global warming, scientists are 90% sure it’s the Sun; The climate problems blamed on carbon dioxide (such as ocean acidification and negative impacts on polar bears) are not real (Willie Soon, 2024-01-22)
Evidence (2020-05-23): As CO2 has had no noticeable effect on climate in 600 million years, until 15- 20 years ago, when carbon tax was invented, any alleged climatic effects can be ignored. [...] Scientists have actually long known that something something other than CO2 sets things in motion when Earth enters and emerges from ice ages: shifts in solar radiation reaching Earth due to variations in the Earth’s orientation to the Sun. (These are known as Milankovitch cycles). Then other natural feedbacks kick in — most especially changes in carbon dioxide. [...] Here, too, commenters on this blog often claim that since recent periods in Earth’s past were almost as warm as it is now, we can’t know for sure that the CO2 we’ve added to the atmosphere is responsible for the observed recent warming.
Claim: Carbon dioxide does not cause global warming, scientists are 90% sure it’s the Sun; The climate problems blamed on carbon dioxide (such as ocean acidification and negative impacts on polar bears) are not real (Willie Soon, 2024-01-22)
Evidence (2023-09-25): With that said, multiple studies published in peer-reviewed scientific journals1 show that climate-warming trends over the past century are extremely likely due to human activities. In addition, most of the leading scientific organizations worldwide have issued public statements endorsing this position. The following is a partial list of these organizations, along with links to their published statements and a selection of related resources. [...] American Geophysical Union "Based on extensive scientific evidence, it is extremely likely that human activities, especially emissions of greenhouse gases, are the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century. There is no alterative explanation supported by convincing evidence." (2019)5 - [...] The Geological Society of America "The Geological Society of America (GSA) concurs with assessments by the National Academies of Science (2005), the National Research Council (2011), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2013) and the U.S. Global Change Research Program (Melillo et al., 2014) that global climate has warmed in response to increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases ... Human activities (mainly greenhouse-gas emissions) are the dominant cause of the rapid warming since the middle 1900s (IPCC, 2013)." (2015)9
Claim: Carbon dioxide does not cause global warming, scientists are 90% sure it’s the Sun; The climate problems blamed on carbon dioxide (such as ocean acidification and negative impacts on polar bears) are not real (Willie Soon, 2024-01-22)
Evidence (2022-06-15): - While the Sun has played a role in past climate changes, the evidence shows the current warming cannot be explained by the Sun. [...] But several lines of evidence show that current global warming cannot be explained by changes in energy from the Sun: [...] - If a more active Sun caused the warming, scientists would expect warmer temperatures in all layers of the atmosphere. Instead, they have observed a cooling in the upper atmosphere and a warming at the surface and lower parts of the atmosphere. That's because greenhouse gases are slowing heat loss from the lower atmosphere.
Claim: Carbon dioxide does not cause global warming, scientists are 90% sure it’s the Sun; The climate problems blamed on carbon dioxide (such as ocean acidification and negative impacts on polar bears) are not real (Willie Soon, 2024-01-22)
Evidence (2022-10-12): What evidence exists that Earth is warming and that humans are the main cause? [...] We know this warming is largely caused by human activities because the key role that carbon dioxide plays in maintaining Earth’s natural greenhouse effect has been understood since the mid-1800s. Unless it is offset by some equally large cooling influence, more atmospheric carbon dioxide will lead to warmer surface temperatures. Since 1800, the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has increased from about 280 parts per million to 410 ppm in 2019. We know from both its rapid increase and its isotopic "fingerprint" that the source of this new carbon dioxide is fossil fuels, and not natural sources like forest fires, volcanoes, or outgassing from the ocean. Finally, no other known climate influences have changed enough to account for the observed warming trend. Taken together, these and other lines of evidence point squarely to human activities as the cause of recent global warming.
Claim: Carbon dioxide does not cause global warming, scientists are 90% sure it’s the Sun; The climate problems blamed on carbon dioxide (such as ocean acidification and negative impacts on polar bears) are not real (Willie Soon, 2024-01-22)
Evidence (2022-06-15): Scientists demonstrated the heat-trapping nature of carbon dioxide and other gases in the mid-19th century.2 Many of the science instruments NASA uses to study our climate focus on how these gases affect the movement of infrared radiation through the atmosphere. From the measured impacts of increases in these gases, there is no question that increased greenhouse gas levels warm Earth in response. [...] Ice cores drawn from Greenland, Antarctica, and tropical mountain glaciers show that Earth’s climate responds to changes in greenhouse gas levels. Ancient evidence can also be found in tree rings, ocean sediments, coral reefs, and layers of sedimentary rocks. This ancient, or paleoclimate, evidence reveals that current warming is occurring roughly 10 times faster than the average rate of warming after an ice age. Carbon dioxide from human activities is increasing about 250 times faster than it did from natural sources after the last Ice Age.3 [...] In 1938, Guy Callendar connected carbon dioxide increases in Earth’s atmosphere to global warming. In 1941, Milutin Milankovic linked ice ages to Earth’s orbital characteristics. Gilbert Plass formulated the Carbon Dioxide Theory of Climate Change in 1956.
Claim: Carbon dioxide does not cause global warming, scientists are 90% sure it’s the Sun; The climate problems blamed on carbon dioxide (such as ocean acidification and negative impacts on polar bears) are not real (Willie Soon, 2024-01-22)
Evidence (2019-07-03): The relationship between atmospheric CO2 levels and climate change is often perceived as a controversial subject. While there's no real disagreement among climate scientists—around 90% fully agree that human activity is clearly responsible for climate change—in the United States in 2016, barely 50% of the general public came to the same conclusion. Adding to the general confusion, highly active "climate-change deniers" claim that temperature has evolved independently of CO2 atmospheric concentrations through Earth's history, and that therefore today's rising CO2 levels are not an issue. So did scientists get the story wrong? No. CO2 has long contributed to controlling the Earth's climate, and its rising concentration in the atmosphere and oceans is a major threat to humanity. [...] As a result of the pCO2 increase, the average surface temperature has already increased by almost 1°C between 1901 and 2012. The Earth's surface has been much warmer than today in the past and it will eventually cool off. However, the consequences of the short-term changes are disastrous. In addition to higher surface temperatures, extreme weather events, ocean acidification, ice melting and sea-level rise are about to significantly disrupt our daily lives and harms the ecosystems around us.
Claim: Carbon dioxide does not cause global warming, scientists are 90% sure it’s the Sun; The climate problems blamed on carbon dioxide (such as ocean acidification and negative impacts on polar bears) are not real (Willie Soon, 2024-01-22)
Evidence (2021-02-25): CO2 molecules don’t really interact with sunlight’s wavelengths. Only after the Earth absorbs sunlight and reemits the energy as infrared waves can the CO2 and other greenhouse gases absorb the energy. [...] Before humans began burning fossil fuels, naturally occurring greenhouse gases helped to make Earth’s climate habitable. Without them, the planet’s average temperature would be below freezing. So we know that even very low, natural levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases can make a huge difference in Earth’s climate. [...] As carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases heat up the planet, more water evaporates into the atmosphere, which in turn raises the temperature further. However, a hypothetical villain would not be able to exacerbate climate change by trying to pump more water vapor into the atmosphere, says Smerdon. "It would all rain out because temperature determines how much moisture can actually be held by the atmosphere."
Claim: Carbon dioxide does not cause global warming, scientists are 90% sure it’s the Sun; The climate problems blamed on carbon dioxide (such as ocean acidification and negative impacts on polar bears) are not real (Willie Soon, 2024-01-22)
Evidence (2023-08-15): Carbon dioxide (CO2) is an important heat-trapping gas, also known as a greenhouse gas, that comes from the extraction and burning of fossil fuels (such as coal, oil, and natural gas), from wildfires, and natural processes like volcanic eruptions. The first graph shows atmospheric CO2 levels measured by NOAA at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii, since 1958. The second graph shows CO2 levels during Earth’s last three glacial cycles, as captured by air bubbles trapped in ice sheets and glaciers. Since the onset of industrial times in the 18th century, human activities have raised atmospheric CO2 by 50% – meaning the amount of CO2 is now 150% of its value in 1750. This human-induced rise is greater than the natural increase observed at the end of the last ice age 20,000 years ago. The animated map shows how the historical changes in global carbon dioxide over time. Note the colors change as the amount of CO2 rises from 365 parts per million (ppm) in 2002 to over 420 ppm currently. It's important to understand that "parts per million" refers to the number of carbon dioxide molecules per million molecules of dry air. These measurements are from the mid-troposphere, the layer of Earth's atmosphere that is 8 to 12 kilometers (about 5 to 7 miles) above the ground. This data provides insights into the significant rise in atmospheric CO2 concentrations, highlighting the impact of human activities on Earth's climate.
Claim: Carbon dioxide does not cause global warming, scientists are 90% sure it’s the Sun; The climate problems blamed on carbon dioxide (such as ocean acidification and negative impacts on polar bears) are not real (Willie Soon, 2024-01-22)
Evidence (2022-06-15): With that said, multiple studies published in peer-reviewed scientific journals1 show that climate-warming trends over the past century are extremely likely due to human activities. In addition, most of the leading scientific organizations worldwide have issued public statements endorsing this position. The following is a partial list of these organizations, along with links to their published statements and a selection of related resources. [...] American Geophysical Union "Based on extensive scientific evidence, it is extremely likely that human activities, especially emissions of greenhouse gases, are the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century. There is no alterative explanation supported by convincing evidence." (2019)5 [...] The Geological Society of America "The Geological Society of America (GSA) concurs with assessments by the National Academies of Science (2005), the National Research Council (2011), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2013) and the U.S. Global Change Research Program (Melillo et al., 2014) that global climate has warmed in response to increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases ... Human activities (mainly greenhouse-gas emissions) are the dominant cause of the rapid warming since the middle 1900s (IPCC, 2013)." (2015)9
Claim: Carbon dioxide does not cause global warming, scientists are 90% sure it’s the Sun; The climate problems blamed on carbon dioxide (such as ocean acidification and negative impacts on polar bears) are not real (Willie Soon, 2024-01-22)
Evidence (2024-10-08): But scientists often use a different measure, known as "equilibrium climate sensitivity". This is defined as the global mean warming caused by a doubling of pre-industrial carbon dioxide (CO₂) levels in the atmosphere. [...] As highly reflective ice melts on land or sea, the underlying surface is exposed and less sunlight reflected back into space. This increases the amount of warming for a given amount of greenhouse gases. It’s what scientists refer to as a positive feedback loop. [...] But we feel these high equilibrium simulations still have value. While we are not arguing they are correct, they force us to consider the what-if situation of very high climate sensitivity, where a doubling of CO₂ would result in warming of 5°C or higher. We know the impact on our environment would be devastating.
Claim: Carbon dioxide does not cause global warming, scientists are 90% sure it’s the Sun; The climate problems blamed on carbon dioxide (such as ocean acidification and negative impacts on polar bears) are not real (Willie Soon, 2024-01-22)
Evidence (2023-09-27): Scientists demonstrated the heat-trapping nature of carbon dioxide and other gases in the mid-19th century.2 Many of the science instruments NASA uses to study our climate focus on how these gases affect the movement of infrared radiation through the atmosphere. From the measured impacts of increases in these gases, there is no question that increased greenhouse gas levels warm Earth in response. [...] Ice cores drawn from Greenland, Antarctica, and tropical mountain glaciers show that Earth’s climate responds to changes in greenhouse gas levels. Ancient evidence can also be found in tree rings, ocean sediments, coral reefs, and layers of sedimentary rocks. This ancient, or paleoclimate, evidence reveals that current warming is occurring roughly 10 times faster than the average rate of warming after an ice age. Carbon dioxide from human activities is increasing about 250 times faster than it did from natural sources after the last Ice Age.3 [...] In 1938, Guy Callendar connected carbon dioxide increases in Earth’s atmosphere to global warming. In 1941, Milutin Milankovic linked ice ages to Earth’s orbital characteristics. Gilbert Plass formulated the Carbon Dioxide Theory of Climate Change in 1956. -
Claim: Carbon dioxide does not cause global warming, scientists are 90% sure it’s the Sun; The climate problems blamed on carbon dioxide (such as ocean acidification and negative impacts on polar bears) are not real (Willie Soon, 2024-01-22)
Evidence (2024-09-19): Carbon dioxide removal: NOAA State of the Science factsheet Human-caused emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), a greenhouse gas (GHG), have been the largest driver of climate change over the past century. The increase of CO2 in the atmosphere has led to warming of surface temperatures over land and in the global oceans, ocean waters becoming more acidic and lower in oxygen, changes in marine food webs, and other associated climate impacts. Long-term protection of Earth’s climate and oceans requires substantial reductions in emissions and atmospheric concentrations of CO2 and other GHGs. [...] Full details on NOAA’s CDR research engagement are available in the Strategy for NOAA Carbon Dioxide Removal Research report, published in 2023. More information on CDR and NOAA’s role in CDR research is available at: oceanacidification.noaa.gov/carbon-dioxide-removal