copenlu/druid huggingface dataset:
Claim: unadjusted data suggests that temperatures in Australia have only increased by 0.3 degrees over the past century, not the 1 degree usually claimed (Tony Abbott, 2017-11-10)
Evidence (2024-03-18): Climate models suggest that precipitation is increasing in both amount and intensity as global temperatures warm34. Instrumental observations validate intensifying precipitation in northern Australia in the twentieth century35 and show that the late 20th-century warming trend in the SW Pacific has increased the likelihood of more extreme northeast Australian flooding33. The multivariate Jeannie River rainfall record extends the northern Great Barrier Reef pre-industrial baseline to 1746 CE and shows that average wet-season precipitation has increased by 125 mm (10%) since 1746 (Fig. 5, Supplemental Fig. 8). More dramatically, precipitation variability in northern Queensland has more than doubled since 1850 CE (110% increase in the standard deviation of summer rainfall from 21-yr windows centered on 1850–2007; Fig. 6). Increasing variability is consistent with amplified precipitation extremes in the tropics as the climate warms; global temperature has increased by ~1.1 K from 1850 to 2017, and local temperature at Jeannie River has increased by a similar amount36.
Claim: unadjusted data suggests that temperatures in Australia have only increased by 0.3 degrees over the past century, not the 1 degree usually claimed (Tony Abbott, 2017-11-10)
Evidence (2016-01-01): Both adjusted and unadjusted temperatures show that Australia’s climate has warmed since 1910. Since 1955 adjusted and unadjusted data are virtually identical. It is also during this time that most of the warming has occurred in Australia. [...] Australian mean temperature change over the last century is best represented by a bilinear model, with a period of relatively no change from 1910 through to 1950, followed by a period of relatively rapid warming from 1950 to present. When characterised this way, both adjusted and unadjusted data show virtually identical warming over this latter period. [...] While there is no significant trend in Australian temperatures prior to 1950 in either the ACORN-SAT or AWAP dataset, the difference in the adjusted and unadjusted climatologies for this period causes differences in the overall temperature change from 1910 to 2018. Taking a simple linear trend, Australia warmed by around 1.39 °C from 1910 to 2018 in the ACORN-SAT data, compared with a change of 0.89 °C in the AWAP data—a difference of around 0.50 °C in more than 100 years.
Claim: unadjusted data suggests that temperatures in Australia have only increased by 0.3 degrees over the past century, not the 1 degree usually claimed (Tony Abbott, 2017-11-10)
Evidence (2020-06-03): Global temperature increases are most clearly detected in the shifting distribution of extreme events. Australia’s warming climate has resulted in significant changes in the frequency of temperature extremes, with a general increase in heatwaves and a reduction in the number of cold days. Here, we present the longest historical analysis of daily Australian temperature extremes and their societal impacts compiled to date. We use a newly consolidated early instrumental dataset and a range of historical sources for the South Australia region of Adelaide—the nation’s driest state, containing the most heatwave-affected city in Australia—to investigate any changes in the characteristics of daily temperature extremes back to 1838. We identify multidecadal variability in heatwave and snow event frequency with a peak in the early twentieth century, with an overall decrease in cold extremes and an increase in heatwaves in the region over the 1838–2019 period. Documentary and instrumental records show a decrease in the number of snow events in Adelaide, and a clear increase in the number of heatwaves since the late twentieth century. [...] CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology (2015) Climate change in Australia information for Australia’s Natural Resource Management Regions: Technical Report. CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne [...] Gergis J, Neukom R, Gallant AJE, Karoly DJ (2016) Australasian temperature reconstruction ensembles spanning the last millennium. J Clim 29:5365–5392
Claim: unadjusted data suggests that temperatures in Australia have only increased by 0.3 degrees over the past century, not the 1 degree usually claimed (Tony Abbott, 2017-11-10)
Evidence (2022-02-25): When the Bureau homogenised the mean annual temperatures at Albany, it turned a slight cooling of 0.3 °C per century into warming of 0.1 °C per century. [...] When the Bureau homogenised the mean annual temperatures at Alice Springs, it increased the rate of warming from 0.9 °C per century to 1.8 °C per century. [...] "Based on the ACORN-SAT dataset, Australia’s climate has warmed on average by 1.47 + 0.24 °C between when national records began in 1910 and 2020. Most of this warming has occurred since 1950.
Claim: unadjusted data suggests that temperatures in Australia have only increased by 0.3 degrees over the past century, not the 1 degree usually claimed (Tony Abbott, 2017-11-10)
Evidence (2024-01-01): The planet is well on the path to devastating climate change. In 2019, Australia’s warmest year on record, average surface temperatures were 1.1°C above the pre-industrial period. Australia has warmed on average by 1.4°C since national records began in 1910. Current global and Australian policies to reverse this trend are inadequate. We must plan to do better and prepare for the worst. Predicting how Australia will change at or beyond 3°C of global warming is challenging. However, by using multiple lines of evidence, such as computer modelling of the climate system, observed changes, and historical paleoclimate studies, we can develop an understanding of future temperatures as well as where we may reach irreversible ‘tipping points’—passing thresholds that trigger sudden and accelerating changes in larger climate systems—and how to mitigate those risks. [...] Australia’s natural resources are directly linked to our wellbeing, culture and economic prosperity. Yet our ecosystems have already been transformed due to a global increase of 1.1°C in average temperature since the late 19th century, with severe consequences for thousands of species.
Claim: unadjusted data suggests that temperatures in Australia have only increased by 0.3 degrees over the past century, not the 1 degree usually claimed (Tony Abbott, 2017-11-10)
Evidence (2024-10-09): Australia has warmed, on average, by 1.47 ± 0.24 °C since national records began in 1910. [...] Australia has warmed, on average, by 1.47 ± 0.24 °C since national records began in 1910, with most warming occurring since 1950. Every decade since 1950 has been warmer than preceding decades. The warming in Australia is consistent with global trends, with the degree of warming similar to the overall average across the world’s land areas. [...] Warming is observed across Australia in all months with both day and night-time temperatures increasing. This shift is accompanied by an increased number of extreme nationally averaged daily heat events across all months, including a greater frequency of very hot days in summer. For example, 2019 experienced 41 extremely warm days, about triple the highest number in any year prior to 2000. Also in 2019, there were 33 days when national daily average maximum temperatures exceeded 39 °C, a larger number than seen in the 59 years from 1960–2018 combined. Increasing trends in extreme heat are observed at locations across all of Australia. Extreme heat has caused more deaths in Australia than any other natural hazard and has major impacts on ecosystems and infrastructure.
Claim: unadjusted data suggests that temperatures in Australia have only increased by 0.3 degrees over the past century, not the 1 degree usually claimed (Tony Abbott, 2017-11-10)
Evidence (2024-10-09): Australia’s climate has warmed on average by 1.44 ± 0.24 °C since national records began in 1910, leading to an increase in the frequency of extreme heat events. Australia’s weather and climate are changing in response to a warming global climate. Australia has warmed on average by 1.44 ± 0.24 °C since national records began in 1910, with most warming occurring since 1950 and every decade since then being warmer than the ones before. Australia’s warmest year on record was 2019, and the seven years from 2013 to 2019 all rank in the nine warmest years. This long-term warming trend means that most years are now warmer than almost any observed during the 20th century. When relatively cooler years do occur, it is because natural drivers that typically cool Australia’s climate, such as La Niña, act to partially offset the background warming trend.
Claim: unadjusted data suggests that temperatures in Australia have only increased by 0.3 degrees over the past century, not the 1 degree usually claimed (Tony Abbott, 2017-11-10)
Evidence (2021-08-10): Australia may warm by four degrees or more this century, the IPCC has found [...] Australia has warmed by about 1.4℃ since 1910. The IPCC assessment concludes the extent of warming in both Australia and globally are impossible to explain without accounting for the extra greenhouse gases in the atmosphere from human activities. [...] If global average warming is limited to 1.5℃ this century, Australia would warm to between 1.4℃ to 1.8℃. If global average warming reaches 4℃ this century, Australia would warm to between 3.9℃ and 4.8℃ .
Claim: unadjusted data suggests that temperatures in Australia have only increased by 0.3 degrees over the past century, not the 1 degree usually claimed (Tony Abbott, 2017-11-10)
Evidence (2024-09-12): Climate change has been a critical issue in Australia since the beginning of the 21st century. Australia is becoming hotter and more prone to extreme heat, bushfires, droughts, floods, and longer fire seasons because of climate change. Climate issues include wildfires, heatwaves, cyclones, rising sea levels, and erosion.[2][3][4] Since the beginning of the 20th century, Australia has experienced an increase of over 1.4 °C in average annual temperatures,[5] with warming occurring at twice the rate over the past 50 years compared with the previous 50 years.[6] Recent climate events such as extremely high temperatures and widespread drought have focused government and public attention on the effects of climate change in Australia.[7] Rainfall in southwestern Australia has decreased by 10–20% since the 1970s, while southeastern Australia has also experienced a moderate decline since the 1990s. Rainfall is expected to become heavier and more infrequent, as well as more common in summer rather than in winter. Australia's annual average temperatures are projected to increase 0.4–2.0 °C above 1990 levels by the year 2030, and 1–6 °C by 2070. Average precipitation in the southwest and southeast Australia is projected to decline during this time, while regions such as the northwest may experience increases in rainfall. [...] According to the Bureau of Meteorology, Australia's annual mean temperature for 2009 was 0.9 °C above the 1961–90 average, making it the nation's second-warmest year since high-quality records began in 1910.[29]
Claim: unadjusted data suggests that temperatures in Australia have only increased by 0.3 degrees over the past century, not the 1 degree usually claimed (Tony Abbott, 2017-11-10)
Evidence (2017-10-11): Factually inaccurate: Observations clearly show that Australia has warmed by around 1 °C. [...] - Donat et al (2016) Extraordinary heat during the 1930s US Dust Bowl and associated large-scale conditions, Climate Dynamics "temperatures in Australia have only increased by 0.3 degrees over the past century, not the 1 degree usually claimed." I don’t know what the source of these numbers is. The official data for Australia by the Bureau of Meteorology, based on high-quality observations, clearly shows that average temperatures have warmed by 0.9-1 degree since 1910.
Claim: unadjusted data suggests that temperatures in Australia have only increased by 0.3 degrees over the past century, not the 1 degree usually claimed (Tony Abbott, 2017-11-10)
Evidence (2020-02-19): Former Prime Minister Tony Abbott wrongly claims Australia has warmed far less than data show [...] SOURCE: Tony Abbott, Global Warming Policy Foundation
Claim: unadjusted data suggests that temperatures in Australia have only increased by 0.3 degrees over the past century, not the 1 degree usually claimed (Tony Abbott, 2017-11-10)
Evidence (2024-02-29): Land areas generally show about twice as much warming as the ocean. When compared to the 1850-1900 averages, the land average in 2023 has increased 2.10 ± 0.07 °C (3.78 ± 0.13 °F) and the ocean surface temperature, excluding sea ice regions, has increased 1.10 ± 0.04 °C (1.98 ± 0.07 °F). Most of this warming has occurred since 1970. [...] Ultimately, each research group strives to produce the best possible estimate, but these methodological differences make understanding of the changes since the preindustrial period more difficult. Different research groups disagree on the amount of warming that has occurred since the preindustrial by more than 0.1 °C (0.2 °F).
Claim: unadjusted data suggests that temperatures in Australia have only increased by 0.3 degrees over the past century, not the 1 degree usually claimed (Tony Abbott, 2017-11-10)
Evidence (2003-09-15): Jones et al. (1990) determined that the impact of urbanization on hemispheric temperature time series was, at most, 0.05°C century−1. This result was based on the work of Karl et al. (1988) for the United States and further analysis of three other regions: European parts of the Soviet Union, eastern Australia, and eastern China. "In none of these three regions was there any indication of significant urban influence in either of the two gridded time series relative to the rural series" (Jones et al. 1990). The homogeneity assessments varied with regions. The data for one region "were assessed for artifacts due to factors such as site moves or changing methods used to calculate monthly mean temperatures." Another region used data from stations "with few, if any, changes in instrumentation, location or observation times." The homogeneity of data used in the third region was not discussed. Their results showed that the urbanization influence "is, at most, an order of magnitude less than the warming seen on a century scale."
Claim: unadjusted data suggests that temperatures in Australia have only increased by 0.3 degrees over the past century, not the 1 degree usually claimed (Tony Abbott, 2017-11-10)
Evidence (2017-02-06): - [the SST increase] ‘was achieved by dubious means’
Claim: unadjusted data suggests that temperatures in Australia have only increased by 0.3 degrees over the past century, not the 1 degree usually claimed (Tony Abbott, 2017-11-10)
Evidence (2016-08-26): Petitioners identify several instances of allegedly flawed data adjustments at specific weather stations, citing the records of some individual stations that they claim show inappropriate manipulation. The Coalition for Responsible Regulation references a non-peer-reviewed analysis by Eschenbach (2009) as a basis for claiming: ‘For example, adjustments made by the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) in Darwin, Australia, transformed a temperature trend falling at 0.7°C per century to one that was warming 1.2°C per century.’ [...] The study’s authors make no claim that global warming science is ‘unsettled.’ In fact, they introduce the study with the following statement: ‘Over the past century, global average surface temperatures have warmed by about 0.75°C. Much of the warming occurred in the past half-century, over which the average decadal rate of change was about 0.13°C, largely due to anthropogenic increases in well-mixed greenhouse gases.’
Claim: unadjusted data suggests that temperatures in Australia have only increased by 0.3 degrees over the past century, not the 1 degree usually claimed (Tony Abbott, 2017-11-10)
Evidence (2022-04-04): This small warming is likely a result of the natural alterations in global ocean currents which are driven by ocean salinity variations. [...] Scientific consensus on climate change 93 unadjusted data suggests that temperatures in Australia have only increased by 0.3 degrees over the past century, not the 1 degree usually claimed "Australia's extreme heat is sign of things to come, scientists warn". [...] Since the start of the 20th century, the global mean surface temperature of the Earth has increased by more than 0.7°C and the rate of warming has been largest in the last 30 years.
Claim: unadjusted data suggests that temperatures in Australia have only increased by 0.3 degrees over the past century, not the 1 degree usually claimed (Tony Abbott, 2017-11-10)
Evidence (2021-10-29): Former Australian prime minister and current MP Tony Abbott has said no "big change" in our climate has resulted from increasing carbon dioxide levels in the past century, and called global warming "beneficial" in the same speech. [...] Abbott careens through accusations of "adjusted" records, the "downplayed" impact of urban heat islands and "slanted" data sets. "Unadjusted data suggests ... temperatures in Australia have only increased by 0.3 degrees over the past century, not the 1 degree usually claimed," he stated, even though Australia just had its warmest winter on record. "Contrary to the breathless assertions that climate change is behind every weather event, in Australia, the floods are not bigger, the bushfires are not worse, the droughts are not deeper or longer, and the cyclones are not more severe than they were in the 1800s," he said. "Sometimes, they do more damage but that’s because there’s more to destroy, not because their intensity has increased."
Claim: unadjusted data suggests that temperatures in Australia have only increased by 0.3 degrees over the past century, not the 1 degree usually claimed (Tony Abbott, 2017-11-10)
Evidence (2021-11-29): Contrary to the breathless assertions that climate change is behind every weather event, in Australia, the floods are not bigger, the bushfires are not worse, the droughts are not deeper or longer, and the cyclones are not more severe than they were in the 1800s. Sometimes, they do more damage but that’s because there’s more to destroy, not because their intensity has increased. More than 100 years of photography at Manly Beach in my electorate does not suggest that sea levels have risen despite frequent reports from climate alarmists that this is imminent. [...] So far, though, there’s no concession that their models might require revision even though unadjusted data suggests that the 1930s were actually the warmest decade in the United States and that temperatures in Australia have only increased by 0.3 degrees over the past century, not the 1 degree usually claimed. [...] To a party audience in country Victoria in October 2009, I observed that the so-called settled science of climate change was "absolute crap"; and after winning the opposition leadership had a secret party room ballot to oppose an ETS because it was not our job to enter into weak compromises with a bad government.
Claim: unadjusted data suggests that temperatures in Australia have only increased by 0.3 degrees over the past century, not the 1 degree usually claimed (Tony Abbott, 2017-11-10)
Evidence (2024-04-03): When the longest continuous temperature series are combined, with a transparent system of area weighting, as I did in an analysis of temperature trends for south-eastern Australia published as a book chapter by Elsevier in 2016, the overall warming trend is only 0.3 degrees Celsius per century (1887 – 2013). This is significantly less than the Australian Bureau of Meteorology 0.7 degrees Celsius for the same region but a shorter period (1910 – 2016). NASA recently announced a rate of 1.1 degrees Celsius since the late 19th century average, the start of the industrial revolution. [...] At Rutherglen, a modest rate of warming in the historical maximum temperatures of 0.7 degrees Celsius per Century was changed to 1.3 degrees Celsius in ACORN-SAT Version 2. Changes to the minimum temperature trend are more dramatic: a slight cooling trend of 0.3 degrees Celsius in the historic dataset was changed to warming of 1.9 degrees in ACORN-SAT Version 2 for Rutherglen. [...] Considering the unhomogenized data for the six nearest stations that are part of the Bureau’s ACORN-SAT network (old Brisbane aero, Cape Moreton Lighthouse, Gayndah post office, Bundaberg post office, Miles post office and Yamba pilot station) the Bureau’s jump-up for Amberley creates an increase for the official temperature trend of 0.75 degree C per century. Temperatures at old Brisbane aero, the closest station that is also part of the ACORN-SAT network, also shows a long-term cooling trend. Indeed, perhaps the cooling at Amberley is real. Why not consider this, particularly in the absence of real physical evidence to the contrary?
Claim: unadjusted data suggests that temperatures in Australia have only increased by 0.3 degrees over the past century, not the 1 degree usually claimed (Tony Abbott, 2017-11-10)
Evidence (2023-12-05): This map further illustrates the data sparsity in the Indian Ocean and the Southern Hemisphere in general.
Claim: Measles Vaccines Kill More People than Measles, CDC Data Proves (Ethan A. Huff, 2015-02-05)
Evidence (2015-02-05): Measles infection resulted in an estimated 2.6 million deaths worldwide every year before the vaccine was introduced in 1963. The claim that the measles vaccine has caused more deaths than the measles infection is inaccurate and based on a flawed interpretation of epidemiological data.
Claim: Measles Vaccines Kill More People than Measles, CDC Data Proves (Ethan A. Huff, 2015-02-05)
Evidence (2015-03-03): "Measles vaccines kill more people than measles, CDC data proves," the headline reads. [...] The article misreads data, to suggest that the measles vaccine is a greater threat to children than the disease. Experts, and data, show that measles is far more dangerous than the vaccine, even if some kids do have a reaction to the shot. [...] NaturalNews, "Measles Vaccines Kill More People than Measles, CDC Data Proves," Feb. 5, 2015
Claim: Measles Vaccines Kill More People than Measles, CDC Data Proves (Ethan A. Huff, 2015-02-05)
Evidence (2019-02-01): In the 1960s, measles infected about 3-4 million people in the U.S. each year. More than 48,000 people were hospitalized, and about 4,000 developed acute encephalitis, a life-threatening condition in which brain tissues become inflamed. Up to 500 people died, mainly from complications such as pneumonia and encephalitis. This was why vaccine pioneers John Enders and Thomas Peebles were motivated to isolate, weaken and develop a vaccine against measles that is truly transformative for human health. Parents who knew the reality of the disease were quick to vaccinate their children. Uptake skyrocketed and the number of cases, and associated deaths, plummeted in the developed world. [...] Thanks to vaccination, however, between 2000 and 2016 there was an 84 percent decrease in measles mortality, and over 20 millions deaths were prevented due to vaccination. What an achievement! [...] What’s important to realize is those millions of kids who died of measles each year in the nineties, for the most part were not living in the developed world. In those days here in the United States and in Europe, there was a widespread appreciation that #vaccineswork, meaning that the vast majority of people received the measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccine and were well and truly protected. Two doses of the vaccine are 97 percent effective at stopping the infection.