copenlu/druid huggingface dataset:
Claim: The cyclical activity of the Sun as well as other variations in solar and earth activity, and NOT anthropogenic CO2 emissions, are responsible for climate change (Social media user, 2023-09-18)
Evidence (2020-02-27): Cycles also play key roles in Earth’s short-term weather and long-term climate. A century ago, Serbian scientist Milutin Milankovitch hypothesized the long-term, collective effects of changes in Earth’s position relative to the Sun are a strong driver of Earth’s long-term climate, and are responsible for triggering the beginning and end of glaciation periods (Ice Ages). Specifically, he examined how variations in three types of Earth orbital movements affect how much solar radiation (known as insolation) reaches the top of Earth’s atmosphere as well as where the insolation reaches. These cyclical orbital movements, which became known as the Milankovitch cycles, cause variations of up to 25 percent in the amount of incoming insolation at Earth’s mid-latitudes (the areas of our planet located between about 30 and 60 degrees north and south of the equator). [...] The small changes set in motion by Milankovitch cycles operate separately and together to influence Earth’s climate over very long timespans, leading to larger changes in our climate over tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of years. Milankovitch combined the cycles to create a comprehensive mathematical model for calculating differences in solar radiation at various Earth latitudes along with corresponding surface temperatures. The model is sort of like a climate time machine: it can be run backward and forward to examine past and future climate conditions.
Claim: The cyclical activity of the Sun as well as other variations in solar and earth activity, and NOT anthropogenic CO2 emissions, are responsible for climate change (Social media user, 2023-09-18)
Evidence (2020-05-08): Planetary Alignments, Solar Activity and Climatic Change [...] Historical data suggest a relation between the changing level of solar activity and climatic change on Earth. Since there is also evidence that the solar cycle of activity is influenced by the alignments of the planets, through tidal interactions with the Sun, it seems that climatic change might be predicted by studying these alignments. [...] Recent cyclic changes in climate and in abundance of marine life
Claim: The cyclical activity of the Sun as well as other variations in solar and earth activity, and NOT anthropogenic CO2 emissions, are responsible for climate change (Social media user, 2023-09-18)
Evidence (2024-02-20): Some skeptics of human-induced climate change blame global warming on natural variations in the sun’s output due to sunspots and/or solar wind. They say it’s no coincidence that an increase in sunspot activity and a run-up of global temperatures on Earth are happening concurrently, and view regulation of carbon emissions as folly with negative ramifications for our economy and tried-and-true energy infrastructure. "[V]ariations in solar energy output have far more effect on Earth’s climate than soccer moms driving SUVs," Southwestern Law School professor Joerg Knipprath, writes in his ‘Token Conservative’ blog. "A rational thinker would understand that, especially if he or she has some understanding of the limits of human influence. But the global warming boosters have this unbounded hubris that it is humans who control nature, and that human activity can terminally despoil the planet as well as cause its salvation." [...] Ironically, the only way to really find out if phenomena like sunspots and solar wind are playing a larger role in climate change than most scientists now believe would be to significantly reduce our carbon emissions. Only in the absence of that potential driver will researchers be able to tell for sure how much impact natural influences have on the Earth’s climate.
Claim: The cyclical activity of the Sun as well as other variations in solar and earth activity, and NOT anthropogenic CO2 emissions, are responsible for climate change (Social media user, 2023-09-18)
Evidence (2017-03-27): For the first time, model calculations show a plausible way that fluctuations in solar activity could have a tangible impact on the climate. Studies funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation expect human-induced global warming to tail off slightly over the next few decades. A weaker sun could reduce temperatures by half a degree. There is human-induced climate change, and there are natural climate fluctuations. One important factor in the unchanging rise and fall of the Earth's temperature and its different cycles is the sun. As its activity varies, so does the intensity of the sunlight that reaches us. One of the key questions facing climate researchers is whether these fluctuations have any effect at all on the Earth's climate. IPCC reports assume that recent solar activity is insignificant for climate change, and that the same will apply to activity in the near future. Researchers from the Physical Meteorological Observatory Davos (PMOD), the Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology (EAWAG), ETH Zurich and the University of Bern are now qualifying this assumption. Their elaborate model calculations are supplying a robust estimate of the contribution that the sun is expected to make to temperature change in the next 100 years. For the first time, a significant effect is apparent. They expect the Earth's temperature to fall by half a degree when solar activity reaches its next minimum.
Claim: The cyclical activity of the Sun as well as other variations in solar and earth activity, and NOT anthropogenic CO2 emissions, are responsible for climate change (Social media user, 2023-09-18)
Evidence (2009-09-01): A comprehensive review of published scientific research by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded that, averaged over the solar cycle, the best estimate of the Sun’s brightness change between the pre-industrial period and the present (2019) is 0.06 Watts per square meter. That increase could be responsible for about 0.01 degrees Celsius—around 1 percent—of the warming the planet has experienced over the industrial era (0.95–1.2 degrees Celsius in 2011–2020 versus 1850–1900). [...] Taken together, the increasing solar activity of the first half of the 20th century and the decreasing activity since then have largely canceled each other out in terms of their influence on global temperature. In the Sixth Assessment Report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, experts concluded that the best estimate for the influence of the Sun on climate between the pre-industrial (1850-1900) and the present (2010-2019) was that it added 0.01 Watts per square meter to the global energy imbalance causing global warming. Such a small energy imbalance (scientists call it a radiative forcing) is likely to be responsible for no more than 0.01 degrees Celsius of warming over that period. That’s 100 times smaller than the overall warming that’s occurred on Earth over the industrial period, which the IPCC estimates as 0.95–1.2 degrees Celsius in 2011–2020 versus 1850–1900.
Claim: The cyclical activity of the Sun as well as other variations in solar and earth activity, and NOT anthropogenic CO2 emissions, are responsible for climate change (Social media user, 2023-09-18)
Evidence (2024-10-08): NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) will discuss the Sun’s activity and the progression of Solar Cycle 25 during a media teleconference at 2 p.m. EDT, Tuesday, Oct. 15. Tracking the solar cycle is a key part of better understanding the Sun and mitigating its impacts on technology and infrastructure as humanity explores farther into space. During the teleconference, experts from NASA, NOAA, and the international Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel, which is co-sponsored by both agencies, will discuss recent solar cycle progress and the forecast for the rest of this cycle. [...] The Sun goes through regular cycles of activity lasting approximately 11 years. During the most active part of the cycle, known as solar maximum, the Sun can unleash immense explosions of light, energy, and solar radiation, all of which create conditions known as space weather. Space weather can affect satellites and astronauts in space, as well as communications systems such as radio and GPS — and power grids on Earth. When the Sun is most active, space weather events become more frequent. Solar activity, such as the storm in May 2024, has sparked displays of aurora and led to impacts on satellites and infrastructure in recent months.
Claim: The cyclical activity of the Sun as well as other variations in solar and earth activity, and NOT anthropogenic CO2 emissions, are responsible for climate change (Social media user, 2023-09-18)
Evidence (2020-09-01): The Sun is a highly active and complicated body. Its behaviour does change over time and this can affect our climate. But these impacts are much smaller than those caused by our burning of fossil fuels and, crucially, they do not build up over time. [...] Sunspots have been observed continuously since 1609, although their cyclical variation was not noticed until much later. At the peak of the cycle, about 0.1% more Solar energy reaches the Earth, which can increase global average temperatures by 0.05-0.1°C. [...] Because changes in Solar activity are important to spacecraft and to radio communications, there is a Solar Cycle Prediction Panel who meet to pool the available evidence.
Claim: The cyclical activity of the Sun as well as other variations in solar and earth activity, and NOT anthropogenic CO2 emissions, are responsible for climate change (Social media user, 2023-09-18)
Evidence (2022-06-15): Climate change is a long-term change in the average weather patterns that have come to define Earth’s local, regional and global climates. These changes have a broad range of observed effects that are synonymous with the term. Changes observed in Earth’s climate since the mid-20th century are driven by human activities, particularly fossil fuel burning, which increases heat-trapping greenhouse gas levels in Earth’s atmosphere, raising Earth’s average surface temperature. Natural processes, which have been overwhelmed by human activities, can also contribute to climate change, including internal variability (e.g., cyclical ocean patterns like El Niño, La Niña and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation) and external forcings (e.g., volcanic activity, changes in the Sun’s energy output, variations in Earth’s orbit). [...] Causes. A concise discussion of the primary climate change causes on our planet.
Claim: The cyclical activity of the Sun as well as other variations in solar and earth activity, and NOT anthropogenic CO2 emissions, are responsible for climate change (Social media user, 2023-09-18)
Evidence (2020-10-29): Yes. Earth has experienced cold periods (informally referred to as "ice ages," or "glacials") and warm periods ("interglacials") on roughly 100,000-year cycles for at least the last 1 million years. The last of these ice age glaciations peaked* around 20,000 years ago. Over the course of these cycles, global average temperatures warmed or cooled anywhere from 3° to perhaps as much as 8° Celsius (5°-15° Fahrenheit). It was partly through their attempts to understand what caused and ended previous ice ages that climate scientists came to understand the dominant role that carbon dioxide plays in Earth’s climate system, and the primary role that human-produced carbon dioxide is playing in current global warming. Learn more here and here. Over at least the past million years, glacial and interglacial cycles have been triggered by variations in how much sunlight reaches the Northern Hemisphere in the summer, which are driven by small variations in the geometry of Earth’s axis and its orbit around the Sun. But these fluctuations in sunlight aren’t enough on their own to bring about full-blown ice ages and interglacials. They trigger several feedback loops that amplify the original warming or cooling. During an interglacial, - sea ice and snow retreat, reducing the amount of sunlight the Earth reflects; [...] These feedbacks amplify the initial warming until the Earth’s orbit goes through a phase during which the amount of Northern Hemisphere summer sunlight is minimized. Then these feedbacks operate in reverse, reinforcing the cooling trend.
Claim: The cyclical activity of the Sun as well as other variations in solar and earth activity, and NOT anthropogenic CO2 emissions, are responsible for climate change (Social media user, 2023-09-18)
Evidence (2023-12-19): Furthermore, solar cycle has a separate external forcing than CO2. The response to this external forcing is amplified by the climate feedback processes of the Earth system. It is hoped that by examining the solar-cycle response at the Earth’s surface, we can estimate the effect of the climate feedback involved, and hence the climate sensitivity of the Earth system. This is a different approach than some of the current ones, for example, of using the effect of Arctic snow-albedo12, or tropical low clouds13,14 to provide a constraint on the climate sensitivity (ECS in the cited cases). Using a component of the feedback process to constrain ECS or TCR requires an additional assumption that the other feedback components are "unbiased", e.g. not compensating9. This structural uncertainty has so far not been assessed. [...] In our recent publications67,68 we estimated the solar-cycle induced changes in NO2 using ground-based observations, WACCM, and our own 1-D photochemical model. The changes are largely in the stratosphere, near the 1-hPa level, with an exception during rare nonlinear events such as tropopause folding in the mid-latitude68. Thus, the overall solar-cycle (or GCR) induced changes in the tropospheric NOx is much less than other variabilities, e.g. anthropogenic pollution, and therefore we do not focus on its climate impact in the current study. [...] Tung, K. K. & Camp, C. D. Solar-cycle warming of the earth’s surface in NCEP and ERA-40 data, a linear discriminant analysis. J. Geophys. Res.113, D05114 (2008).
Claim: The cyclical activity of the Sun as well as other variations in solar and earth activity, and NOT anthropogenic CO2 emissions, are responsible for climate change (Social media user, 2023-09-18)
Evidence (2014-12-05): Introduction to the Solar Activity Cycle: Overview of Causes and Consequences [...] The solar activity cycle, a near-periodic variation generally close to a period of 11 years, appears prominently in most parameters that describe solar phenomena. Records of variations, originally based on sunspot counts, show that this has been the case for historic times, even if during certain intervals lasting decades and longer sunspots were rare. This demonstrates the existence of a timing engine in the Sun that appears to control or influence all aspects of solar phenomena and also beyond, including phenomena elsewhere in the solar system that are affected by the Sun. In recent decades, understanding the solar activity cycle has progressed from being of purely scientific interest to a practical need because of the recognition that solar phenomena affect the Earth’s space environment in ways that can be potentially damaging. It is generally agreed that the timing engine in the Sun causes a nearly periodic generation and evolution of magnetic fields in the solar interior and on the solar surface, more explicitly, that a dynamo mechanism generates the Sun’s magnetic field. [...] However, the very complex variations in the spectrum of the solar irradiation as a function of the activity cycle, in particular as a function of the strength, distribution and short- and medium-term variability of the magnetic features remain to be explained (Yeo et al. 2014, this issue). Progress will be made by more accurate measurements, in particular spectral measurements, combined with more detailed models of the spectral irradiance.
Claim: The cyclical activity of the Sun as well as other variations in solar and earth activity, and NOT anthropogenic CO2 emissions, are responsible for climate change (Social media user, 2023-09-18)
Evidence (2019-09-06): The Sun powers life on Earth; it helps keep the planet warm enough for us to survive. It also influences Earth’s climate: We know subtle changes in Earth’s orbit around the Sun are responsible for the comings and goings of the past ice ages. But the warming we’ve seen over the last few decades is too rapid to be linked to changes in Earth’s orbit, and too large to be caused by solar activity.1 [...] What Effect Do Solar Cycles Have on Earth’s Climate? According to the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the current scientific consensus is that long and short-term variations in solar activity play only a very small role in Earth’s climate. Warming from increased levels of human-produced greenhouse gases is actually many times stronger than any effects due to recent variations in solar activity.
Claim: The cyclical activity of the Sun as well as other variations in solar and earth activity, and NOT anthropogenic CO2 emissions, are responsible for climate change (Social media user, 2023-09-18)
Evidence (2014-08-17): Changes in solar activity have previously been proposed to cause decadal- to millennial-scale fluctuations in both the modern and Holocene climates1. Direct observational records of solar activity, such as sunspot numbers, exist for only the past few hundred years, so solar variability for earlier periods is typically reconstructed from measurements of cosmogenic radionuclides such as 10Be and 14C from ice cores and tree rings2,3. Here we present a high-resolution 10Be record from the ice core collected from central Greenland by the Greenland Ice Core Project (GRIP). The record spans from 22,500 to 10,000 years ago, and is based on new and compiled data4,5,6. Using 14C records7,8 to control for climate-related influences on 10Be deposition, we reconstruct centennial changes in solar activity. We find that during the Last Glacial Maximum, solar minima correlate with more negative δ18O values of ice and are accompanied by increased snow accumulation and sea-salt input over central Greenland. We suggest that solar minima could have induced changes in the stratosphere that favour the development of high-pressure blocking systems located to the south of Greenland, as has been found in observations and model simulations for recent climate9,10. [...] Gray, L. J. et al. Solar influences on climate. Rev. Geophys.48, RG4001 (2010). [...] Wagner, G. et al. Presence of the solar de Vries cycle (∼205 years) during the last ice age. Geophys. Res. Lett.28, 303–306 (2001).
Claim: The cyclical activity of the Sun as well as other variations in solar and earth activity, and NOT anthropogenic CO2 emissions, are responsible for climate change (Social media user, 2023-09-18)
Evidence (2015-11-04): There is, however, a dawning realization among researchers that even these apparently tiny variations can have a significant effect on terrestrial climate. A new report issued by the National Research Council (NRC), "The Effects of Solar Variability on Earth's Climate," lays out some of the surprisingly complex ways that solar activity can make itself felt on our planet. [...] Raymond Bradley of UMass, who has studied historical records of solar activity imprinted by radioisotopes in tree rings and ice cores, says that regional rainfall seems to be more affected than temperature. "If there is indeed a solar effect on climate, it is manifested by changes in general circulation rather than in a direct temperature signal." This fits in with the conclusion of the IPCC and previous NRC reports that solar variability is NOT the cause of global warming over the last 50 years. [...] The full report, "The Effects of Solar Variability on Earth’s Climate," is available from the National Academies Press at http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=13519.
Claim: The cyclical activity of the Sun as well as other variations in solar and earth activity, and NOT anthropogenic CO2 emissions, are responsible for climate change (Social media user, 2023-09-18)
Evidence (2009-04-30): Over the span of 11 years, the Sun’s activity waxes and wanes as magnetic field lines that are wound and tangled inside the Sun periodically break through to the surface. These breakthroughs produce a pair of sunspots of opposite magnetic polarity, one positive and the other negative, that travel together across the face of the Sun. The heightened magnetic activity associated with sunspots can lead to solar flares, coronal mass ejections, and other far-reaching electromagnetic phenomena that endanger astronauts and damage or disrupt satellites. [...] If you map the location of the spots on the Sun’s surface over the course of a solar cycle, the pattern they make is shaped like a butterfly. The reason for the butterfly pattern is that the first sunspots of each new solar cycle occur mostly at the Sun’s mid-latitudes, but as the solar cycle progresses, the area of maximum sunspot production shifts toward the (solar) equator. [...] The small changes in solar irradiance that occur during the solar cycle exert a small influence on Earth’s climate, with periods of intense magnetic activity (the solar maximum) producing slightly higher temperatures, and solar minimum periods such as that seen in 2008 and early 2009 likely to have the opposite effect.
Claim: The cyclical activity of the Sun as well as other variations in solar and earth activity, and NOT anthropogenic CO2 emissions, are responsible for climate change (Social media user, 2023-09-18)
Evidence (2024-01-01): Earth’s climate is warming due to human activities that increase the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere - not because of the Sun. The Sun does influence Earth’s climate, and the amount of energy that reaches Earth from the Sun does change over time, but only by a fraction of a percent (0.1% over an 11-year sunspot cycle, to be exact). These very small variations in solar energy output and the current orientation of Earth relative to the Sun do not account for the climate warming trend we have been experiencing since we began burning fossil fuels and increasing the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. [...] Thus, the Sun is largely responsible for Earth’s climate. Climate changes caused by the Sun take place over much longer spans of time, hundreds of thousands of years, versus the rapid warming we have been experiencing in recent decades. [...] The amount of energy the Sun produces varies over an 11-year cycle. At the peak of the cycle, called the solar maximum, the Sun is extremely active, with many sunspots and solar storms. After the peak, solar activity decreases for about 11 years until it reaches the solar minimum. Even accounting for these small ups and downs in solar activity, there is not enough of an increase in recent solar irradiance that explains current climate warming.
Claim: The cyclical activity of the Sun as well as other variations in solar and earth activity, and NOT anthropogenic CO2 emissions, are responsible for climate change (Social media user, 2023-09-18)
Evidence (2023-09-18): In his post, Monotti does not specifically state how the cyclical activity of the Sun as well as other factors can cause climate change, but he implies that variation in solar activity and in the Sun’s orbit relative to other celestial bodies, and changes in the Earth’s orbit are sufficient to explain ongoing climate change without recourse to greenhouse gas emissions and human activity. However, there is no evidence that any of these factors can explain the magnitude of the change in the earth’s climate that we are currently experiencing[2].