copenlu/druid huggingface dataset:
Claim: the IPCC is wrong − the sun, not CO2, drove modern global warming (Roger Higgs, 2020-03-11)
Evidence (2022-04-16): A key finding in the latest IPCC climate report has been widely misinterpreted, according to scientists involved in the study. [...] The IPCC's most recent report focused on how to limit or curtail emissions of the gases that are the root cause of warming. In their summary for policymakers, the scientists said it was still possible to avoid the most dangerous levels of warming by keeping the rise in global temperatures under 1.5C this century.
Claim: the IPCC is wrong − the sun, not CO2, drove modern global warming (Roger Higgs, 2020-03-11)
Evidence (2021-08-09): In strong, confident tones, the IPCC's document says "it is unequivocal that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, oceans and land". [...] The authors say that since 1970, global surface temperatures have risen faster than in any other 50-year period over the past 2,000 years. [...] Global surface temperature was 1.09C higher in the decade between 2011-2020 than between 1850-1900.
Claim: the IPCC is wrong − the sun, not CO2, drove modern global warming (Roger Higgs, 2020-03-11)
Evidence (2022-03-01): "And time is running out, as the IPCC report clearly says, to stop the forces driving this new climate apartheid," he told BBC News. [...] According to the IPCC, the use of some technologies designed to limit warming or reduce CO2 could make matters worse rather than better. [...] "If you remove CO2 from the atmosphere, you'll get a rebound effect from the others in the carbon cycle," said Linda Schneider from the Heinrich Böll Foundation, who was an observer at the IPCC discussions.
Claim: the IPCC is wrong − the sun, not CO2, drove modern global warming (Roger Higgs, 2020-03-11)
Evidence (2021-08-05): The first assessment from the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change in eight years will sound the alarm on soaring temperatures, rising seas and extreme weather. [...] The United Nations is poised to release the most confident and comprehensive assessment yet of global warming, including detailed estimates of how continued greenhouse-gas emissions will increase Earth’s sea levels and drive extreme weather in the coming years. Compiled by more than 200 scientists and approved by government representatives from 195 countries, the report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will leave little doubt that humans are altering the way the planet functions — and that things will get much worse if governments do not take drastic action, say climate researchers interviewed by Nature. [...] IPCC says limiting global warming to 1.5 °C will require drastic action
Claim: the IPCC is wrong − the sun, not CO2, drove modern global warming (Roger Higgs, 2020-03-11)
Evidence (2022-04-05): Radical emissions cuts combined with some atmospheric carbon removal are the only hope to limit global warming to 1.5 °C, scientists warn. [...] Humanity probably isn’t going to prevent Earth from at least temporarily warming 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels — but aggressive action to curb greenhouse-gas emissions and extract carbon from the atmosphere could limit the increase and bring temperatures back down, according to the latest report from the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The report makes it clear, however, that the window is rapidly closing, and with it the opportunity to prevent the worst impacts of global warming. Above the 1.5 °C limit — set by the Paris climate agreement in 2015 — the chances of extreme weather and collapsing ecosystems grow. [...] IPCC climate report: Earth is warmer than it’s been in 125,000 years
Claim: the IPCC is wrong − the sun, not CO2, drove modern global warming (Roger Higgs, 2020-03-11)
Evidence (2020-03-18): This article presents a long list of inaccurate claims, but focuses on the idea that the Sun—rather than human-caused greenhouse gas emissions—is responsible for global warming. The available evidence and research clearly shows that this claim is incorrect. Measured patterns of warming, and monitoring of incoming solar energy, rule out the Sun as the source of warming. [...] Solar forcing is much smaller than CO2 forcing. As this figure from the latest IPCC report shows, CO2 radiative forcing (1.68 W/m2) dwarfs solar forcing (0.05 W/m2). Along with other greenhouse gases, CO2 dominates the total radiative forcing when all positive and negative factors are taken into account. [...] There is strong evidence that solar forcing cannot explain much of the observed warming at all. The "fingerprint" of solar forcing does not match the observed changes at all, neither over time nor space. Solar forcing would warm both the stratosphere and the surface of the Earth, whereas CO2 warms the surface (and the troposphere) but cools the stratosphere. Using radiosondes and (more recently) satellites, we have observed a warming surface and troposphere together with a cooling stratosphere. See Santer et al (2013)* for one of many studies providing this evidence.
Claim: the IPCC is wrong − the sun, not CO2, drove modern global warming (Roger Higgs, 2020-03-11)
Evidence (2021-04-16): There is no factual data to back up global warming; real scientists don’t know whether CO2, solar sunspots or natural activity cause global warming [...] Scientific studies established clear links between human-caused increased in atmospheric CO2 and global warming [...] Electroverse article incorrectly claims the Sun is behind climate change
Claim: the IPCC is wrong − the sun, not CO2, drove modern global warming (Roger Higgs, 2020-03-11)
Evidence (2021-12-17): Sun, X.B. et al., 2017: Changes in extreme temperature events over the Hindu Kush Himalaya during 1961–2015. Advances in Climate Change Research, 8(3), 157–165, doi: 10.1016/j.accre.2017.07.001. [...] Sun, Y. et al., 2019: Contribution of Global warming and Urbanization to Changes in Temperature Extremes in Eastern China. Geophysical Research Letters, 46(20), 11426–11434, doi: 10.1029/2019gl084281. Sun, Z. et al., 2018: Recent rebound in observational large-pan evaporation driven by heat wave and droughts by the Lower Yellow River. Journal of Hydrology, 565, 237–247, doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.08.014.
Claim: the IPCC is wrong − the sun, not CO2, drove modern global warming (Roger Higgs, 2020-03-11)
Evidence (2020-05-10): Greenhouse gases are not the culprit of the current global warming, instead, huge amount of residual heat or waste heat discharged into the environment from human activities has dominated the warming (beside of solar irradiance and volcano eruptions). Pursuing GHG reductions is bound to be ineffective in preventing the globe from further warming but increases unnecessary burdens. Switching to 100% of surface renewable energies is the ideal solution to completely solve further warming problem. However, geotherm does cause global warming although it is a type of renewable energy. Increasing energy’s conversion efficiency can effectively help slow down the warming, it requires vast investment and will embrace breakthroughs in technologies. Changing human’s behavior individually and socially and retrofitting can decrease the energy consumption and the amount of heat entering the environment and thus help mitigate climate change and its impact in the most cost-effective way. Unlike the General Circulation Models that can only simulate the past air temperature changes with greater uncertainty, the Equivalent Climate Change Model can not only trace the past temperature changes in air, oceans and land, but also can predict the future changes in them, respectively, with high certainty and reliability. [...] Global warming drives climate change. It has been an urgent, sustainability threatening issue. The globe gets warmer and warmer, especially in recent years at record-breaking rates year after year, and no slow-down sign has been seen yet although huge efforts and resources have been deployed. This basically indicates that the current approach to fighting climate change through reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is ineffective and inefficient.
Claim: the IPCC is wrong − the sun, not CO2, drove modern global warming (Roger Higgs, 2020-03-11)
Evidence (2023-12-05): Note that while emissions of CO2 are the largest driver of the trend in atmospheric CO2 concentration, our goal here is to predict divergence from that trend. Because changes in emissions from year to year are relatively minor, this has little effect on the variation in concentration from the trend line. Even the relatively large drop in emissions in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic does not cause any problems for the model. [...] For example, a large northern land sink and a tropical land source in an inversion would suggest a large sensitivity to CO2 fertilization (the dominant factor driving the land sinks) for northern ecosystems, which would not be mirrored by tropical ecosystems. Such a combination could be hard to reconcile with the process understanding gained from the DGVM ensembles and independent measurements (e.g. free-air CO2 enrichment experiments). [...] Vaittinada Ayar, P., Bopp, L., Christian, J. R., Ilyina, T., Krasting, J. P., Séférian, R., Tsujino, H., Watanabe, M., Yool, A., and Tjiputra, J.: Contrasting projections of the ENSO-driven CO2 flux variability in the equatorial Pacific under high-warming scenario, Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1097–1118, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1097-2022, 2022.
Claim: the IPCC is wrong − the sun, not CO2, drove modern global warming (Roger Higgs, 2020-03-11)
Evidence (2023-09-09): Solar variability as a potential cause for climate change has a long (and somewhat dubious) history in climate science – going back at least to the poor statistics and over-confident claims of William Herschel (Love,2013). However, the searching for (and finding!) of solar correlations in all manner of climate records (and non-climate records) has been a staple of the ABC (‘Anything-but-CO2‘) crowd since the 1980s. [...] By the mid-1990s, it was clear that solar activity (normally defined) was not going to be able to explain the rapid rise in global temperatures since the 1970s (Thompson, 1997. And by the 2007 IPCC AR4 report, or in Lean and Rind (2008)), at best, scientists had concluded that solar activity wasn’t likely to be responsible for more than 10% or so of the long term rise in global temperature. [...] But we have mega-oodles (the SI unit) of additional data that tell us this conclusion cannot be correct. If the sun was driving the warming, we’d see it in the stratospheric temperatures (which are cooling in line with expectations from the impact of CO2, not warming due to the supposed increase in solar activity). If the land data was contaminated by urban heating effects, we wouldn’t see similar warming in the ocean. If the surface temperature data sets were corrupted, why do they line up with the satellite data from the independent AIRS and MSU instruments? Etc.
Claim: the IPCC is wrong − the sun, not CO2, drove modern global warming (Roger Higgs, 2020-03-11)
Evidence (2024-09-17): "In our paper, we show, using the best available observations from the [Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System] platform, that the warming of the last 24 years was entirely caused by the observed decrease of Earth’s albedo and not by increasing greenhouse gas concentrations as claimed by the IPCC." [...] In response to the question "Is the Sun causing global warming?" on its website, NASA states, "No. The Sun can influence Earth’s climate, but it isn’t responsible for the warming trend we’ve seen over recent decades. "The Sun is a giver of life; it helps keep the planet warm enough for us to survive. We know subtle changes in Earth’s orbit around the Sun are responsible for the comings and goings of the ice ages. But the warming we’ve seen in recent decades is too rapid to be linked to changes in Earth’s orbit and too large to be caused by solar activity."
Claim: the IPCC is wrong − the sun, not CO2, drove modern global warming (Roger Higgs, 2020-03-11)
Evidence (2022-07-18): Carbon dioxide is the most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas in the Earth's atmosphere. Due to human influences, e.g., fossil fuel consumption and cement production (FFC), the concentration of atmospheric CO2 increased (by 38 %) from 289.9 ± 3.3 ppm in 1850–1900 to 398.8 ± 7.3 ppm in 2010–2019, with the fastest growth in the past 5 decades (Canadell et al., 2021). To limit global warming below 1.5∘C by 2100, as per the Paris Agreement, a drastic and sustained reduction in CO2 emissions from anthropogenic activities is recommended in the IPCC's sixth assessment report (AR6). The IPCC AR6 Working Group 1 estimated remaining carbon budgets (starting from 1 January 2020) for limiting global warming to 1.5, 1.7, and 2.0 ∘C as 140, 230, and 370 PgC, respectively, based on the 50th percentile of the transient climate response to cumulative emissions of carbon dioxide (TCRE) (Canadell et al., 2021). With the present FFC emissions of about 10 PgC yr−1 (Jones et al., 2021), the remaining carbon budget will be consumed within decades. [...] The supplement related to this article is available online at: https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9215-2022-supplement. [...] Raupach, M., Canadell, J., Ciais, P., et al.: The relationship between peak warming and cumulative CO2 emissions, and its use to quantify vulnera-bilities in the carbon-climate-human system, Tellus B, 63, 145–164, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0889.2010.00521.x, 2011.
Claim: the IPCC is wrong − the sun, not CO2, drove modern global warming (Roger Higgs, 2020-03-11)
Evidence (2020-07-30): Climate change is defined as the shift in climate patterns mainly caused by greenhouse gas emissions. Greenhouse gas emissions cause heat to be trapped by the earth’s atmosphere, and this has been the main driving force behind global warming. The main sources of such emissions are natural systems and human activities. Natural systems include forest fires, earthquakes, oceans, permafrost, wetlands, mud volcanoes and volcanoes (Yue and Gao 2018), while human activities are predominantly related to energy production, industrial activities and those related to forestry, land use and land-use change (Edenhofer et al. 2014). Yue and Gao statistically analysed global greenhouse gas emissions from natural systems and anthropogenic activities and concluded that the earth’s natural system can be considered as self-balancing and that anthropogenic emissions add extra pressure to the earth system (Yue and Gao 2018). [...] IPCC (2018) Global warming of 1.5 °C. In: Masson-Delmotte V, Zhai P, Pörtner H-O, Roberts D, Skea J, Shukla PR, Pirani A, Moufouma-Okia W, Péan C, Pidcock R, Connors S, Matthews JBR, Chen Y, Zhou X, Gomis MI, Lonnoy E, Maycock T, Tignor M, Waterfield T (eds) An IPCC special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty. https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/06/SR15_Full_Report_High_Res.pdf. Accessed 22 Dec 2019
Claim: the IPCC is wrong − the sun, not CO2, drove modern global warming (Roger Higgs, 2020-03-11)
Evidence (2011-03-03): Human-induced global warming has already caused multiple observed changes in the climate system (high confidence). Changes include increases in both land and ocean temperatures, as well as more frequent heatwaves in most land regions (high confidence). There is also (high confidence) global warming has resulted in an increase in the frequency and duration of marine heatwaves. Further, there is substantial evidence that human-induced global warming has led to an increase in the frequency, intensity and/or amount of heavy precipitation events at the global scale (medium confidence), as well as an increased risk of drought in the Mediterranean region (medium confidence). {3.3.1, 3.3.2, 3.3.3, 3.3.4, Box 3.4}
Claim: the IPCC is wrong − the sun, not CO2, drove modern global warming (Roger Higgs, 2020-03-11)
Evidence (2023-09-04): Solar forcing is not the main cause of current global warming, contrary to claim by Alex Newman in the Epoch Times [...] Electroverse article incorrectly claims the Sun is behind climate change [...] The Sun cannot explain recent global warming, contrary to what Heartland Institute report claims
Claim: the IPCC is wrong − the sun, not CO2, drove modern global warming (Roger Higgs, 2020-03-11)
Evidence (2012-04-04): Human-induced warming reached approximately 1°C (likely between 0.8°C and 1.2°C) above pre-industrial levels in 2017, increasing at 0.2°C (likely between 0.1°C and 0.3°C) per decade (high confidence). Global warming is defined in this report as an increase in combined surface air and sea surface temperatures averaged over the globe and over a 30-year period. Unless otherwise specified, warming is expressed relative to the period 1850–1900, used as an approximation of pre-industrial temperatures in AR5. For periods shorter than 30 years, warming refers to the estimated average temperature over the 30 years centred on that shorter period, accounting for the impact of any temperature fluctuations or trend within those 30 years. Accordingly, warming from pre- industrial levels to the decade 2006–2015 is assessed to be 0.87°C (likely between 0.75°C and 0.99°C). Since 2000, the estimated level of human-induced warming has been equal to the level of observed warming with a likely range of ±20% accounting for uncertainty due to contributions from solar and volcanic activity over the historical period (high confidence). {1.2.1}
Claim: the IPCC is wrong − the sun, not CO2, drove modern global warming (Roger Higgs, 2020-03-11)
Evidence (2021-02-25): With CO2 and other greenhouse gases, it’s different. Carbon dioxide, for example, absorbs energy at a variety of wavelengths between 2,000 and 15,000 nanometers — a range that overlaps with that of infrared energy. As CO2 soaks up this infrared energy, it vibrates and re-emits the infrared energy back in all directions. About half of that energy goes out into space, and about half of it returns to Earth as heat, contributing to the ‘greenhouse effect.’ [...] CO2 molecules don’t really interact with sunlight’s wavelengths. Only after the Earth absorbs sunlight and reemits the energy as infrared waves can the CO2 and other greenhouse gases absorb the energy. [...] Interestingly enough, part of the answer has to do with water vapor. According to Smerdon, scientists think that long ago, Venus experienced a runaway greenhouse effect that boiled away almost all of the planet’s water — and water vapor, remember, is also a heat-trapping gas.
Claim: the IPCC is wrong − the sun, not CO2, drove modern global warming (Roger Higgs, 2020-03-11)
Evidence (2024-01-01): The Sun serves as the primary energy source for Earth’s climate. Some of the incoming sunlight is reflected directly back into space, especially by bright surfaces such as ice and clouds, and the rest is absorbed by the surface and the atmosphere. Much of this absorbed solar energy is re-emitted as heat (longwave or infrared radiation). The atmosphere in turn absorbs and re-radiates heat, some of which escapes to space. Any disturbance to this balance of incoming and outgoing energy will affect the climate. For example, small changes in the output of energy from the Sun will affect this balance directly. [...] Fingerprinting is a powerful way of studying the causes of climate change. Different influences on climate lead to different patterns seen in climate records. This becomes obvious when scientists probe beyond changes in the average temperature of the planet and look more closely at geographical and temporal patterns of climate change. For example, an increase in the Sun’s energy output will lead to a very different pattern of temperature change (across Earth’s surface and vertically in the atmosphere) compared to that induced by an increase in CO2 concentration. Observed atmospheric temperature changes show a fingerprint much closer to that of a long-term CO2 increase than to that of a fluctuating Sun alone. Scientists routinely test whether purely natural changes in the Sun, volcanic activity, or internal climate variability could plausibly explain the patterns of change they have observed in many different aspects of the climate system. These analyses have shown that the observed climate changes of the past several decades cannot be explained just by natural factors.
Claim: the IPCC is wrong − the sun, not CO2, drove modern global warming (Roger Higgs, 2020-03-11)
Evidence (2018-12-01): Climate is influenced by a range of factors. There are two main natural drivers of variations in climate on time scales of decades to centuries. The first is variations in the sun’s activity, which alter the amount of incoming energy from the sun. The second is large volcanic eruptions, which increase the number of small particles (aerosols) in the upper atmosphere that reflect sunlight and cool the surface–an effect that can last for several years (see also FAQ 3.2). The main human drivers of climate change are increases in the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and of aerosols from burning fossil fuels, land use and other sources. The greenhouse gases trap infrared radiation near the surface, warming the climate. Aerosols, like those produced naturally by volcanoes, on average cool the climate by increasing the reflection of sunlight. Multiple lines of evidence demonstrate that human drivers are the main cause of recent climate change.
Claim: the IPCC is wrong − the sun, not CO2, drove modern global warming (Roger Higgs, 2020-03-11)
Evidence (2019-12-14): While many people may be unaware of this good news, they do react to each weather or climate disaster in the news. Activist scientists and the media quickly seize upon each extreme weather event as having the fingerprints of manmade climate change — ignoring the analyses of more sober scientists showing periods of even more extreme weather in the first half of the 20th century, when fossil fuel emissions were much smaller. [...] To further complicate climate model projections for the 21st century, the climate models focus only on manmade climate change – they make no attempt to predict natural climate variations from the sun’s output, volcanic eruptions and long-term variations in ocean circulation patterns. We have no idea how natural climate variability will play out in the 21st century, and whether or not natural variability will dominate over manmade warming.
Claim: With the new BA.2.86 variant, “We’re in a situation where vaccination, according to the CDC, increases the likelihood of infection” (John Campbell, 2023-08-29)
Evidence (2023-08-29): BA.2.86 is a new variant of SARS-CoV-2 derived from Omicron. It harbors a large number of mutations—around thirty—compared to Omicron. Preliminary results indicate that BA.2.86 is able to escape immunity, which means that the immunity built from vaccination or previous infection may not be very effective at protecting from BA.2.86.
Claim: With the new BA.2.86 variant, “We’re in a situation where vaccination, according to the CDC, increases the likelihood of infection” (John Campbell, 2023-08-29)
Evidence (2023-08-30): - CDC continues to track the presence of the BA.2.86 variant. [...] - The current increases in cases and hospitalizations in the United States are likely being driven by infections with XBB lineage viruses, not the new BA.2.86 variant. [...] Viral Genomics: BA.2.86 is a newly designated variant of SARS-CoV-2 that has a number of additional mutations compared with previously detected Omicron variants. Specifically, the genetic sequence of BA.2.86 has changes that represent over 30 amino acid differences compared with BA.2, which was the dominant Omicron lineage in early 2022. BA.2.86 also has >35 amino acid changes compared with the more recently circulating XBB.1.5, which was dominant through most of 2023. This number of genetic differences is roughly of the same magnitude as seen between the initial Omicron variant (BA.1) and previous variants, such as Delta (B.1.617.2).