copenlu/druid huggingface dataset:
Claim: Increases in atmospheric CO2 is mainly from natural causes, like ocean outgassing, and not from humans who emit so little in comparison (Ian Plimer, 2023-10-03)
Evidence (2020-02-26): The CO2 level in 2019 was more than 40% higher than it was in the 19th century. Most of this CO2 increase has taken place since 1970, about the time when global energy consumption accelerated. Measured decreases in the fraction of other forms of carbon (the isotopes 14C and 13C) and a small decrease in atmospheric oxygen concentration (observations of which have been available since 1990) show that the rise in CO2 is largely from combustion of fossil fuels (which have low 13C fractions and no 14C). Deforestation and other land use changes have also released carbon from the biosphere (living world) where it normally resides for decades to centuries. The additional CO2 from fossil fuel burning and deforestation has disturbed the balance of the carbon cycle, because the natural processes that could restore the balance are too slow compared to the rates at which human activities are adding CO2 to the atmosphere. As a result, a substantial fraction of the CO2 emitted from human activities accumulates in the atmosphere, where some of it will remain not just for decades or centuries, but for thousands of years.
Claim: Increases in atmospheric CO2 is mainly from natural causes, like ocean outgassing, and not from humans who emit so little in comparison (Ian Plimer, 2023-10-03)
Evidence (2024-10-01): On the other hand, animals – including humans – breathe out CO₂ in the process of respiration. When plants and animals die, their stored carbon is also released as CO₂. Natural processes such as respiration and decay, forest fires and volcanic eruptions add an additional 190.2 billion tonnes of CO₂ to the atmosphere per year. [...] Humans generate CO₂ when burning fossil fuels such as gas, petrol, oil, and coal. This adds an additional 9.1 billion tonnes of CO₂ to the atmosphere each year. [...] As a result of increasing emissions, the global atmospheric CO₂ concentration has increased by 50 per cent since pre-industrial times, rising from 277 ppm in 1750 to 416 ppm in June 2023.
Claim: Increases in atmospheric CO2 is mainly from natural causes, like ocean outgassing, and not from humans who emit so little in comparison (Ian Plimer, 2023-10-03)
Evidence (2022-10-12): How do we know the build-up of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is caused by humans? The most basic reason is that fossil fuels—the result of millions of years of plant growth—are the only source of carbon dioxide large enough to raise atmospheric carbon dioxide amounts as high and as quickly as they have risen. The increase between the year 1800 and today is 70% larger than the increase that occurred when Earth climbed out of the last ice age between 17,500 and 11,500 years ago, and it occurred 100-200 times faster. [...] During all of the cycles between ice ages and warm periods over the past million years, atmospheric carbon dioxide never climbed higher than 300 parts per million. At the end of the last ice age around 20,000 years ago, it was 280 ppm. Today it is close to 420 ppm. The increase between the year 1800 and today is 70% larger than the increase that occurred when Earth climbed out of the last ice age between 17,500 and 11,500 years ago, and it occurred 100-200 times faster. Only fossil fuels—which are the remains of millions of years of carbon uptake by plants—contain enough carbon to produce such a massive change in such a short time.
Claim: Increases in atmospheric CO2 is mainly from natural causes, like ocean outgassing, and not from humans who emit so little in comparison (Ian Plimer, 2023-10-03)
Evidence (2020-02-26): Scientists have determined that, when all human and natural factors are considered, Earth’s climate balance has been altered towards warming, with the biggest contributor being increases in CO2. [...] The atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide have increased significantly since the Industrial Revolution began. In the case of carbon dioxide, the average concentration measured at the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii has risen from 316 parts per million (ppm)1 in 1959 (the first full year of data available) to more than 411 ppm in 2019 [FIGURE B2]. The same rates of increase have since been recorded at numerous other stations worldwide. Since preindustrial times, the atmospheric concentration of CO2 has increased by over 40%, methane has increased by more than 150%, and nitrous oxide has increased by roughly 20%. More than half of the increase in CO2 has occurred since 1970. Increases in all three gases contribute to warming of Earth, with the increase in CO2 playing the largest role. See page B3 to learn about the sources of human emitted greenhouse gases. [...] These and other lines of evidence point conclusively to the fact that the elevated CO2 concentration in our atmosphere is the result of human activities.
Claim: Increases in atmospheric CO2 is mainly from natural causes, like ocean outgassing, and not from humans who emit so little in comparison (Ian Plimer, 2023-10-03)
Evidence (2019-07-30): Answer provided by Yochanan Kushnir [...] The burning of fossil fuels affects the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere. Before the industrial revolution, the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere was about 288 ppm. We have now reached about 414 ppm, so we are on the way to doubling the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere by the end of this century. Scientists say that if CO2 doubles, it could raise the average global temperature of the Earth between two and five degrees Celsius. We are already increasing the amount of energy that bounces back to the Earth. Because of the greenhouse effect, this is causing global warming with its many destructive impacts. Both water vapor and CO2 are responsible for global warming, and once we increase the CO2 in the atmosphere, the oceans warm up, which inevitably triggers an increase in water vapor. But while we have no way to control water vapor, we can control CO2. And because we are increasing the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere by continuing to burn fossil fuels, even in relatively small amounts compared to the entire mass of the atmosphere, we are disturbing the entire heat balance of the planet.
Claim: Increases in atmospheric CO2 is mainly from natural causes, like ocean outgassing, and not from humans who emit so little in comparison (Ian Plimer, 2023-10-03)
Evidence (2013-07-14): Attributing the increase in atmospheric CO2 to emitters and absorbers [...] Climate change policies need to consider the contribution of each emitting region to the increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide. We calculate regional attributions of increased atmospheric CO2 using two different assumptions about land sinks. In the first approach, each absorber region is attributed ‘domestic sinks’ that occur within its boundaries. In the second, alternative approach, each emitter region is attributed ‘foreign sinks’ that it created indirectly through its contribution to increasing CO2. We unambiguously attribute the largest share of the historical increase in CO2 between pre-industrial times and the present-day period to developed countries. However, the excess CO2 in the atmosphere since pre-industrial times attributed to developing countries is greater than their share of cumulative CO2 emissions. This is because a greater fraction of their emissions occurred more recently. If emissions remain high over the coming decades, the share of excess CO2 attributable to developing countries will grow, and the sink service provided by forested regions—in particular those with tropical forest—to other regions will depend critically on future tropical land-use change. [...] Ciais, P., Gasser, T., Paris, J. et al. Attributing the increase in atmospheric CO2 to emitters and absorbers.
Claim: Increases in atmospheric CO2 is mainly from natural causes, like ocean outgassing, and not from humans who emit so little in comparison (Ian Plimer, 2023-10-03)
Evidence (2022-10-12): What evidence exists that Earth is warming and that humans are the main cause? [...] We know this warming is largely caused by human activities because the key role that carbon dioxide plays in maintaining Earth’s natural greenhouse effect has been understood since the mid-1800s. Unless it is offset by some equally large cooling influence, more atmospheric carbon dioxide will lead to warmer surface temperatures. Since 1800, the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has increased from about 280 parts per million to 410 ppm in 2019. We know from both its rapid increase and its isotopic "fingerprint" that the source of this new carbon dioxide is fossil fuels, and not natural sources like forest fires, volcanoes, or outgassing from the ocean. [...] USGCRP (2017). Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume 1 [Wuebbles, D.J., D.W. Fahey, K.A. Hibbard, D.J. Dokken, B.C. Stewart, and T.K. Maycock (eds.)]. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA, 470 pp, doi: 10.7930/J0J964J6.
Claim: Increases in atmospheric CO2 is mainly from natural causes, like ocean outgassing, and not from humans who emit so little in comparison (Ian Plimer, 2023-10-03)
Evidence (2017-10-19): In 2015 and 2016, OCO-2 recorded atmospheric carbon dioxide increases that were 50 percent larger than the average increase seen in recent years preceding these observations. These measurements are consistent with those made by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). That increase was about 3 parts per million of carbon dioxide per year — or 6.3 gigatons of carbon. In recent years, the average annual increase has been closer to 2 parts per million of carbon dioxide per year — or 4 gigatons of carbon. These record increases occurred even though emissions from human activities in 2015-16 are estimated to have remained roughly the same as they were prior to the El Nino, which is a cyclical warming pattern of ocean circulation in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean that can affect weather worldwide. [...] The annual increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels and the magnitude of the seasonal cycle are determined by a delicate balance between Earth's atmosphere, ocean and land. Each year, the ocean, plants and trees take up and release carbon dioxide. The amount of carbon released into the atmosphere as a result of human activities also changes each year. On average, Earth's land and ocean remove about half the carbon dioxide released from human emissions, with the other half leading to increasing atmospheric concentrations. While natural processes are responsible for the exchange of carbon dioxide between the atmosphere, ocean and land, each year is different. In some years, natural processes remove as little as 20 percent of human emissions, while in other years they scrub as much as 80 percent.
Claim: Increases in atmospheric CO2 is mainly from natural causes, like ocean outgassing, and not from humans who emit so little in comparison (Ian Plimer, 2023-10-03)
Evidence (2023-12-04): CLAIM: Human emissions could not be driving global warming since they are a small fraction of natural emissions. Temperature actually drives CO2, not the inverse. So the current rise in atmospheric CO2 is caused by ocean outgassing, not human emissions. [...] Several atmospheric measurements provide further corroboration that human emissions are the source of rising global atmospheric CO2 concentrations[4],[10]. Figure 5, top, shows observations of monthly CO2 concentrations at Mauna Loa Observatory and the South Pole, with concentrations at both stations continuously increasing since measurements began in the late-1950s. Another feature is that CO2 concentrations at Mauna Loa have increased by a few ppm compared to the South Pole, indicating higher CO2 input from the land-dominated northern hemisphere, where most industrialized regions are located. Furthermore, measured atmospheric oxygen (O2) concentrations have been steadily decreasing globally since regular observations began around 1990 (Fig. 5, bottom). Atmospheric O2 concentrations are not affected by ocean CO2 outgassing, so the decreasing O2 concentrations indicate that increasing atmospheric CO2 is primarily driven by an oxygen-consuming process, namely combustion, but also respiration.
Claim: Increases in atmospheric CO2 is mainly from natural causes, like ocean outgassing, and not from humans who emit so little in comparison (Ian Plimer, 2023-10-03)
Evidence (2021-10-25): Burning fossil fuels and chopping down trees lead to the release of this greenhouse gas. Both activities exploded after the 19th Century, so it's unsurprising that atmospheric CO2 increased over the same period. [...] Analysis shows that for 800,000 years, atmospheric CO2 did not rise above 300 parts per million (ppm). But since the Industrial Revolution, the CO2 concentration has soared to its current level of nearly 420 ppm. Computer simulations, known as climate models, have been used to show what would have happened to temperatures without the massive amounts of greenhouse gases released by humans.
Claim: Increases in atmospheric CO2 is mainly from natural causes, like ocean outgassing, and not from humans who emit so little in comparison (Ian Plimer, 2023-10-03)
Evidence (2022-06-15): A vital component of the atmosphere, carbon dioxide (CO2) is released through natural processes (like volcanic eruptions) and through human activities, such as burning fossil fuels and deforestation. [...] Over the last century, burning of fossil fuels like coal and oil has increased the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). This increase happens because the coal or oil burning process combines carbon with oxygen in the air to make CO2. To a lesser extent, clearing of land for agriculture, industry, and other human activities has increased concentrations of greenhouse gases. The industrial activities that our modern civilization depends upon have raised atmospheric carbon dioxide levels by nearly 50% since 17502. This increase is due to human activities, because scientists can see a distinctive isotopic fingerprint in the atmosphere.
Claim: Increases in atmospheric CO2 is mainly from natural causes, like ocean outgassing, and not from humans who emit so little in comparison (Ian Plimer, 2023-10-03)
Evidence (2023-08-15): Carbon dioxide (CO2) is an important heat-trapping gas, also known as a greenhouse gas, that comes from the extraction and burning of fossil fuels (such as coal, oil, and natural gas), from wildfires, and natural processes like volcanic eruptions. The first graph shows atmospheric CO2 levels measured by NOAA at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii, since 1958. The second graph shows CO2 levels during Earth’s last three glacial cycles, as captured by air bubbles trapped in ice sheets and glaciers. Since the onset of industrial times in the 18th century, human activities have raised atmospheric CO2 by 50% – meaning the amount of CO2 is now 150% of its value in 1750. This human-induced rise is greater than the natural increase observed at the end of the last ice age 20,000 years ago. [...] This boom-and-bust cycle of plant growth gives the graph of CO2 a sawtooth pattern of ups and downs from year to year. At a larger scale, the upward climb of the trend line over the decades is caused by CO2 emissions, primarily from burning fossil fuels. Thus, the data illustrate both natural factors and human additions of CO2.
Claim: Increases in atmospheric CO2 is mainly from natural causes, like ocean outgassing, and not from humans who emit so little in comparison (Ian Plimer, 2023-10-03)
Evidence (2024-01-01): In nature, CO2 is exchanged continually between the atmosphere, plants and animals through photosynthesis, respiration, and decomposition, and between the atmosphere and ocean through gas exchange. A very small amount of CO2 (roughly 1% of the emission rate from fossil fuel combustion) is also emitted in volcanic eruptions. This is balanced by an equivalent amount that is removed by chemical weathering of rocks. The CO2 level in 2019 was more than 40% higher than it was in the 19th century. Most of this CO2 increase has taken place since 1970, about the time when global energy consumption accelerated. Measured decreases in the fraction of other forms of carbon (the isotopes 14C and 13C) and a small decrease in atmospheric oxygen concentration (observations of which have been available since 1990) show that the rise in CO2 is largely from combustion of fossil fuels (which have low 13C fractions and no 14C). Deforestation and other land use changes have also released carbon from the biosphere (living world) where it normally resides for decades to centuries. The additional CO2 from fossil fuel burning and deforestation has disturbed the balance of the carbon cycle, because the natural processes that could restore the balance are too slow compared to the rates at which human activities are adding CO2 to the atmosphere. As a result, a substantial fraction of the CO2 emitted from human activities accumulates in the atmosphere, where some of it will remain not just for decades or centuries, but for thousands of years.
Claim: Increases in atmospheric CO2 is mainly from natural causes, like ocean outgassing, and not from humans who emit so little in comparison (Ian Plimer, 2023-10-03)
Evidence (2022-03-11): Increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations is the main driver of global warming due to fossil fuel combustion. Satellite observations provide continuous global CO2 retrieval products, that reveal the nonuniform distributions of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. However, climate simulation studies are almost based on a globally uniform mean or latitudinally resolved CO2 concentrations assumption. In this study, we reconstructed the historical global monthly distributions of atmospheric CO2 concentrations with 1° resolution from 1850 to 2013 which are based on the historical monthly and latitudinally resolved CO2 concentrations accounting longitudinal features retrieved from fossil-fuel CO2 emissions from Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center. And the spatial distributions of nonuniform CO2 under Shared Socio-economic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios were generated based on the spatial, seasonal and interannual scales of the current CO2 concentrations from 2015 to 2150. Including the heterogenous CO2 distributions could enhance the realism of global climate modeling, to better anticipate the potential socio-economic implications, adaptation practices, and mitigation of climate change. [...] Nagelkerken, I. & Connell, S. D. Global alteration of ocean ecosystem functioning due to increasing human CO2 emissions. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA112, 13272–13277 (2015). [...] Gruber, N. et al. Oceanic sources, sinks, and transport of atmospheric CO2. Glob. Biogeochem. Cycle23 (2009).
Claim: Increases in atmospheric CO2 is mainly from natural causes, like ocean outgassing, and not from humans who emit so little in comparison (Ian Plimer, 2023-10-03)
Evidence (2023-07-26): In 2015 and 2016, OCO-2 recorded atmospheric carbon dioxide increases that were 50 percent larger than the average increase seen in recent years preceding these observations. These measurements are consistent with those made by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). That increase was about 3 parts per million of carbon dioxide per year — or 6.3 gigatons of carbon. In recent years, the average annual increase has been closer to 2 parts per million of carbon dioxide per year — or 4 gigatons of carbon. These record increases occurred even though emissions from human activities in 2015-16 are estimated to have remained roughly the same as they were prior to the El Nino, which is a cyclical warming pattern of ocean circulation in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean that can affect weather worldwide. [...] The annual increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels and the magnitude of the seasonal cycle are determined by a delicate balance between Earth’s atmosphere, ocean and land. Each year, the ocean, plants and trees take up and release carbon dioxide. The amount of carbon released into the atmosphere as a result of human activities also changes each year. On average, Earth’s land and ocean remove about half the carbon dioxide released from human emissions, with the other half leading to increasing atmospheric concentrations. While natural processes are responsible for the exchange of carbon dioxide between the atmosphere, ocean and land, each year is different. In some years, natural processes remove as little as 20 percent of human emissions, while in other years they scrub as much as 80 percent.
Claim: Increases in atmospheric CO2 is mainly from natural causes, like ocean outgassing, and not from humans who emit so little in comparison (Ian Plimer, 2023-10-03)
Evidence (2019-10-09): "One could say that because the atmosphere is so thin, the activity of 7.7 billion humans can actually make significant changes to the entire system," he added. "The composition of Earth’s atmosphere has most certainly been altered. Half of the increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations in the last 300 years has occurred since 1980, and one quarter of it since 2000. Methane concentrations have increased 2.5 times since the start of the Industrial Age, with almost all of that occurring since 1980. So changes are coming faster, and they’re becoming more significant." The concentration of carbon dioxide in Earth’s atmosphere is currently at nearly 412 parts per million (ppm) and rising. This represents a 47 percent increase since the beginning of the Industrial Age, when the concentration was near 280 ppm, and an 11 percent increase since 2000, when it was near 370 ppm. Crisp points out that scientists know the increases in carbon dioxide are caused primarily by human activities because carbon produced by burning fossil fuels has a different ratio of heavy-to-light carbon atoms, so it leaves a distinct "fingerprint" that instruments can measure. A relative decline in the amount of heavy carbon-13 isotopes in the atmosphere points to fossil fuel sources. Burning fossil fuels also depletes oxygen and lowers the ratio of oxygen to nitrogen in the atmosphere.
Claim: Increases in atmospheric CO2 is mainly from natural causes, like ocean outgassing, and not from humans who emit so little in comparison (Ian Plimer, 2023-10-03)
Evidence (2023-12-04): In his second claim, Dr. Plimer posits that the present-day atmospheric CO2 increase is from the ocean releasing CO2 in response to past natural warming, not human emissions. However, this claim fundamentally overlooks multiple sources of evidence showing a massive influx of anthropogenic CO2 to the climate system. While the ocean does respond to warmer temperatures by outgassing CO2 during glacial-interglacial transitions on timescales of hundreds-to-thousands of years, this mechanism does not explain observations of the rapid and unprecedented rise of atmospheric CO2 concentrations since the onset of the industrial era. [...] Several atmospheric measurements provide further corroboration that human emissions are the source of rising global atmospheric CO2 concentrations[4],[10]. Figure 5, top, shows observations of monthly CO2 concentrations at Mauna Loa Observatory and the South Pole, with concentrations at both stations continuously increasing since measurements began in the late-1950s. Another feature is that CO2 concentrations at Mauna Loa have increased by a few ppm compared to the South Pole, indicating higher CO2 input from the land-dominated northern hemisphere, where most industrialized regions are located. Furthermore, measured atmospheric oxygen (O2) concentrations have been steadily decreasing globally since regular observations began around 1990 (Fig. 5, bottom). Atmospheric O2 concentrations are not affected by ocean CO2 outgassing, so the decreasing O2 concentrations indicate that increasing atmospheric CO2 is primarily driven by an oxygen-consuming process, namely combustion, but also respiration.