copenlu/druid huggingface dataset:
Claim: Judge Juan Merchan told New York jurors the verdict in Donald Trump’s trial does not need to be unanimous. (Social media, 2024-05-29)
Evidence (2024-06-02): Several conservative news personalities, including some affiliated with Fox News, falsely claimed that New York state Judge Juan Merchan, as one Fox News anchor put it in a viral post on X, "told the jury that they do not need unanimity to convict" Trump. That's not true. Merchan instructed the jurors Wednesday that they "must conclude unanimously that a defendant conspired to promote or prevent the election of any person to a public office by unlawful means," adding that they "need not be unanimous as to what those unlawful means were." That means that jurors have to agree unanimously that Trump committed a crime by engaging in a criminal conspiracy to falsify records with the intent to commit one or more other crimes to convict him. But jurors can choose from three options about what those other crimes were: violations of the Federal Election Campaign Act, falsification of other business records or violation of tax laws. Those "unlawful means" aren't charges themselves, and they wouldn't result in separate convictions, so jurors don't have to unanimously agree on them.
Claim: Judge Juan Merchan told New York jurors the verdict in Donald Trump’s trial does not need to be unanimous. (Social media, 2024-05-29)
Evidence (2024-05-30): This sparked backlash from some conservatives, some of whom suggested Merchan ruled the jury does not need to be unanimous. However, the jury does need to be unanimous in its verdict, or the trial would result in a hung jury. [...] A post to X (formerly Twitter) from Fox News co-anchor John Roberts went viral across social media in which he stated that Merchan "just told the jury that they do not need unanimity to convict. 4 could agree on one crime, 4 on a different one, and the other 4 on another. He said he would treat 4-4-4 as a unanimous verdict." [...] "People keep harping on this but are missing the context. They have to be unanimous that Trump falsified the records and did so with the intent to commit another crime. They do not have to be unanimous on what the other crime was: that's the rule under NY law," wrote legal analyst Bradley P. Moss.
Claim: Judge Juan Merchan told New York jurors the verdict in Donald Trump’s trial does not need to be unanimous. (Social media, 2024-05-29)
Evidence (2024-05-29): "The president’s focused on the American people, delivering for the American people," press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters traveling with Biden to Philadelphia, where he has campaign events scheduled Wednesday. "That’s his focus." Fact check: Yes, the jury must come to a unanimous verdict As the jury begins its deliberations in Donald Trump’s hush money case, claims are spreading across social media that Judge Juan M. Merchan told the panel they don’t need a unanimous verdict to convict Trump. That’s false. To convict Trump, Merchan told the jury they will have to find unanimously — that is, all 12 jurors must agree — that the former president created a fraudulent entry in his company’s records or caused someone else to do so, and that he did so with the intent of committing or concealing another crime. What’s being distorted by some online is the judge’s instruction about how to reach a verdict about that second element. Prosecutors say the crime Trump committed or hid is a violation of a New York election law making it illegal for two or more conspirators "to promote or prevent the election of any person to a public office by unlawful means."
Claim: Judge Juan Merchan told New York jurors the verdict in Donald Trump’s trial does not need to be unanimous. (Social media, 2024-05-29)
Evidence (2024-05-29): With prosecutors and defense attorneys resting their cases, Judge Juan Merchan ordered the jury to deliberate on a verdict, where they will have to find unanimously and without a reasonable doubt that Trump was culpable for each of the 34 felony charges he faces of falsifying business records, or unanimously acquit him on each of those counts. If the jury is not able to reach unanimous consent, Merchan will be able to instruct the jury to agree on a verdict, a process known as an Allen charge, a controversial option available in federal courts and some states, including New York, in which a judge orders a jury to "continue [its] deliberations."
Claim: “Violent crime is near a record 50-year low.” (Joe Biden, 2024-05-15)
Evidence (2024-05-15): The FBI’s violent crime rate for 2022, the last year officially available, was 370 violent crimes per 100,000 population. Since 1972, only two years have had a lower violent crime rate: 2014 and 2019. Preliminary estimates for 2023 show the violent crime rate continuing to fall. If that is replicated in the final FBI data, 2023 will become the lowest year for the violent crime rate in 50 years.
Claim: “Violent crime is near a record 50-year low.” (Joe Biden, 2024-05-15)
Evidence (2024-05-15): Joe Biden is correct that violent crime is near a 50-year low [...] In May 15 remarks at a national police memorial service at the U.S. Capitol, Biden told officers and other attendees, "You risk your lives every day for the safety of the people you don’t even know. That’s why each of you, each and every one of you, is a hero. It’s no accident that violent crime is near a record 50-year low." [...] Biden said, "Violent crime is near a record 50-year low."
Claim: “Violent crime is near a record 50-year low.” (Joe Biden, 2024-05-15)
Evidence (2024-05-03): Americans are safer from violent crime today than a year ago. Today an independent organization of police chiefs from the Nation's largest cities released data showing that, compared to a year earlier, violent crime declined across every category in the first quarter of 2024 and murders are down 17 percent. These decreases build on substantial decreases in previous years. After the prior administration oversaw the largest 1-year increase in murders ever recorded, violent crime is at a near 50-year low. This crime reduction is not an accident. It's the result of extraordinary efforts from law enforcement and community leaders. It's also the result of historic steps by my administration to stop the flow of illegal guns and make the largest ever Federal investment in fighting and preventing crime because of my American Rescue Plan. Despite every Republican in Congress voting against it, that plan passed, and it has enabled cities and States to invest over $15 billion in public safety and violence prevention, putting cops on the beat for accountable community policing as well as interrupting and preventing crime. [...] Joseph R. Biden, Statement on the Violent Crime Rate Online by Gerhard Peters and John T. Woolley, The American Presidency Project https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/node/371554
Claim: “Violent crime is near a record 50-year low.” (Joe Biden, 2024-05-15)
Evidence (2024-02-01): Violent Crime Is Dropping, But Americans Feel Less Safe. [...] Fast forward a couple of years – and things look very different. According to crime analyst Jeff Asher, "2023 featured one of the lowest rates of violent crime in the US in more than 50 years." [...] Despite a significant and measurable drop in violent crime, Americans feel less safe. According to a Gallup poll released in November, more than three quarters of Americans believe there's more crime in the country than there was last year.
Claim: “Violent crime is near a record 50-year low.” (Joe Biden, 2024-05-15)
Evidence (2024-09-23): Violent crime - as recorded by the FBI - includes homicide, rape, robbery and aggravated assault reported to and recorded by police forces. [...] But while violent crime is down, some non-violent crimes are up. In 2023, motor vehicle theft rose by 13%. [...] Violent crime, as recorded by the survey, includes rape or sexual assault, robbery, aggravated assault, and simple assault. It does not count murder.
Claim: “Violent crime is near a record 50-year low.” (Joe Biden, 2024-05-15)
Evidence (2024-07-25): Louis Jacobson, "Joe Biden is correct that violent crime is near a 50-year low," Politifact, May 28, 2024. Here is the email we sent to Louis Jacobson, but he never responded to our point that the most recent National Crime Victimization Survey data shows a 43 percent increase from the rate in 2020. So, how exactly is the current rate near a 50-year low? How does comparing it to only the crime rate 50 years ago exactly justify Biden’s claim? I was reading your write up on Biden’s claim that "Violent crime is near a record 50-year low." With regard to the NCVS, I don’t think that is true. The NCVS estimate of the violent crime rates in 2020 and 2021 were 16.4 and 16.5 respectively. The rate in 2022 was 23.5, thus 43.3% and 42.4% higher than the rates in those years. It seems to me that is a much higher rate in 2022 than the low rates immediately before it. There are also very low rates around 2008 and 2009. Even if you compare the average pre-COVID rate for the five years from 2015 to 2019, the rate in 2022 was still 14% higher, which also seems substantial and helps give a reason why people think violent crime has increased.
Claim: “Violent crime is near a record 50-year low.” (Joe Biden, 2024-05-15)
Evidence (2023-12-17): Sky-high violent-crime rates of recent years have suddenly—mercifully—plummeted. [...] "The quarterly data in particular suggests 2023 featured one of the lowest rates of violent crime in the United States in more than 50 years," Asher wrote in his Substack newsletter. [...] Similarly, the specific reasons for the drop are also unclear. Part of it is that the conditions that seem to have led to the rise—including the Floyd protests and the pandemic—have eased. But actions taken by policy makers to quell crime may have also helped.
Claim: “Violent crime is near a record 50-year low.” (Joe Biden, 2024-05-15)
Evidence (2023-11-03): During the pandemic, the country saw a significant uptick in homicides, shootings and aggravated assaults, which likely contributed to the increase seen in data reported by law enforcement. At the same time, violent crime victimizations — which included less acute forms of violent crime, such as assaults without weapons that did not lead to serious injuries — dipped. These violent crime victimizations mostly went unreported. [...] For some observers, the jump in serious violent crime was always bound to stabilize, as the shock from the early pandemic wore off. "Violent crime rates had been trending down for at least a decade. And when the pandemic hit, unsurprisingly, with this once-in-a-century event, you saw things shift," said Kim Foxx, state’s attorney for Cook County, Illinois. "As we are coming out of the pandemic, the fact that we are now seeing those numbers trend downward again is not surprising to me." [...] These data gaps and disagreements create more space for politicians to spin unsubstantiated, murky narratives. When Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis announced his run for president, for example, he touted that Florida’s crime rate has reached a record-low under his administration. But he failed to mention that he relied on a crime rate estimation that was missing data from about half of the state’s law enforcement agencies, which policed 40% of the state’s population.
Claim: “Violent crime is near a record 50-year low.” (Joe Biden, 2024-05-15)
Evidence (2024-08-02): Joe Biden stated on May 24, 2024 in a campaign email: "The last administration oversaw the largest increase in murders ever recorded." Joe Biden stated on June 4, 2024 in an interview with Time magazine: "Wage increases have exceeded" the cost of inflation. Joe Biden stated on June 4, 2024 in a speech: "Due to the arrangements that I've reached with (Mexico) President Obrador, the number of migrants coming … to our shared border unlawfully in recent months has dropped dramatically." Joe Biden stated on May 19, 2024 in a speech: Donald Trump wants to terminate the Affordable Care Act. Joe Biden stated on May 15, 2024 in a speech at a police memorial service: "Violent crime is near a record 50-year low." Joe Biden stated on May 14, 2024 in an interview with Yahoo Finance: Inflation "was 9% when I came to office." Joe Biden stated on May 12, 2024 in a fundraising event in Seattle: "China's in a situation where they have more retired than working." Joe Biden stated on May 1, 2024 in a campaign event: Former President Donald Trump told Time magazine that "states should monitor women’s pregnancies and prosecute those who violate abortion bans." [...] Joe Biden stated on May 15, 2024 in a speech at a police memorial service: "Violent crime is near a record 50-year low."
Claim: “Violent crime is near a record 50-year low.” (Joe Biden, 2024-05-15)
Evidence (2024-09-23): Crime over time [edit]Despite accusations, notably by Republicans and conservative media, of a "crime crisis" of soaring violent crime under Biden, FBI data indicated the violent crime rate had declined significantly during the president's first two years in office, after a spike in 2020 during the COVID pandemic. By 2022, the violent crime rate was near a 50-year low, and preliminary data released in early 2024 indicated continuing declines in 2023.[14][15][16] As of July 1, 2024 violent crime was down and homicides were on pace to drop to 2015 levels by the end of the year.[4][5] [...] - ^ a b Narea, Nicole (2024-08-12). "Violent crime is plummeting. Why?". Vox. Retrieved 2024-08-27. [...] - ^ Jacobsen, Louis (May 28, 2024). "Joe Biden is correct that violent crime is near a 50-year low". PolitiFact.
Claim: “Violent crime is near a record 50-year low.” (Joe Biden, 2024-05-15)
Evidence (2024-06-04): Fact check: Biden says violent crime 'is near a record 50-year low' [...] In May 15 remarks at a national police memorial service at the U.S. Capitol, Biden told officers and other attendees, "You risk your lives every day for the safety of the people you don’t even know. That’s why each of you, each and every one of you, is a hero. It’s no accident that violent crime is near a record 50-year low." [...] Biden said, "Violent crime is near a record 50-year low."
Claim: “Violent crime is near a record 50-year low.” (Joe Biden, 2024-05-15)
Evidence (2024-05-03): Statement from President Joe Biden on Record Decrease in Violent Crime in 2024 Americans are safer from violent crime today than a year ago. Today, an independent organization of police chiefs from the nation’s largest cities released data showing that, compared to a year earlier, violent crime declined across every category in the first quarter of 2024 and murders are down 17%. These decreases build on substantial decreases in previous years. After the prior Administration oversaw the largest one-year increase in murders ever recorded, violent crime is at a near fifty-year low. This crime reduction is not an accident. It’s the result of extraordinary efforts from law enforcement and community leaders. It’s also the result of historic steps by my Administration to stop the flow of illegal guns and make the largest-ever federal investment in fighting and preventing crime because of my American Rescue Plan. Despite every Republican in Congress voting against it, that plan passed, and it has enabled cities and states to invest over $15 billion in public safety and violence prevention, putting cops on the beat for accountable community policing as well as interrupting and preventing crime.
Claim: “Violent crime is near a record 50-year low.” (Joe Biden, 2024-05-15)
Evidence (2024-06-04): Fact check: Biden says violent crime 'is near a record 50-year low' In May 15 remarks at a national police memorial service at the U.S. Capitol, President Biden said: "It's no accident that violent crime is near a record 50-year low."
Claim: “Violent crime is near a record 50-year low.” (Joe Biden, 2024-05-15)
Evidence (2024-03-30): According to the FBI data, the overall violent crime rate — which includes homicide, rape, robbery and aggravated assault per 100,000 population — fell by about 2.9% between 2020 (Donald Trump’s last year as president) and 2021 (Biden’s first year in office). It fell further, by about 1.6%, between 2021 and 2022. [...] The only increase among violent crimes under Biden was in robberies. The rise was small (less than 1% from 2021 to 2022), and followed a record low. Robbery fell by 11.4% from 2020 to 2021. [...] Overall violent crime and homicides are down during Biden’s presidency, according to both the official government measures through 2022 and a private-sector analysis of sampled data through 2023. Some types of property crime are also down, but motor vehicle theft is a notable exception.
Claim: “Violent crime is near a record 50-year low.” (Joe Biden, 2024-05-15)
Evidence (2024-05-28): In May 15 remarks at a national police memorial service at the U.S. Capitol, Biden told officers and other attendees, "You risk your lives every day for the safety of the people you don’t even know. That’s why each of you, each and every one of you, is a hero. It’s no accident that violent crime is near a record 50-year low." Official FBI data on crime tends to lag, but available measures show overall violent crime has fallen during Biden’s presidency. But is violent crime "near a record 50-year low," as Biden said? [...] Biden said, "Violent crime is near a record 50-year low."
Claim: “Violent crime is near a record 50-year low.” (Joe Biden, 2024-05-15)
Evidence (2024-09-25): Two national polls have found that support for capital punishment in the United States remains near half-century lows despite record-high perception that local crime has increased. The 2022 Crime Survey by Gallup, administered between October 3–20, 2022 against the backdrop of the Parkland school shooting trial, reported support for capital punishment held steady at 55%, one percentage point above the 50-year low of 54% in 2021. Gallup has measured support for capital punishment at between 54%-56% for each of the past six years. 42% of respondents told Gallup they oppose the death penalty, one percentage-point below 2021’s 50-year high. Support for capital punishment, which historically had tracked Americans’ fear of crime, did not materially rise despite the largest increase in fifty years in the number of U.S. adults who report that crime is up in the area in which they live. The spike in perceived crime was fueled primarily by a surge in fear among those identifying as Republicans, whose perception that local crime is rising increased from 38% in the final year of the Trump presidency to 73% at the approach of Biden midterm elections. Nationally, 56% of Americans told Gallup that local crime was up.
Claim: “Violent crime is near a record 50-year low.” (Joe Biden, 2024-05-15)
Evidence (2024-10-06): "It’s no accident that violent crime is near a record 50-year low," President Biden similarly claimed. And fact-checkers, at places like Politifact, rate Biden’s statement as "true." [...] In saying Biden’s claim was correct, Politifact declared: "Other types of crime statistics, including the National Crime Victimization Survey, show current levels of violent crime far lower than their peaks in the early 1990s." But Biden was saying that the violent crime rate was near a 50-year low, not that it was lower than it was in the 1990s. There have been many years over the last 50 where the violent crime data from the NCVS is lower than in 2022. In addition, to say the violent crime rate increased by 42.4% in 2022 after a smaller increase in 2021 seems far from the low it was in 2020. Unreported crime has increased as law enforcement has collapsed, and that has reduced the rate at which people report crimes to police. In cities with more than one million people (where violent crime disproportionately occurs), arrest rates for violent crime plunged from 44% in the five years preceding COVID-19 (2015-2019) to 20% in 2022. Property crime arrest rates dropped by even more.
Claim: “Violent crime is near a record 50-year low.” (Joe Biden, 2024-05-15)
Evidence (2024-05-17): President Joe Biden credited police officers for the nation’s declining crime rate at a ceremony honoring fallen law enforcement members on May 15. [...] "It’s no accident that violent crime is near a record 50-year low – a 50-year low. It’s because of extraordinary efforts by all of you in your communities, together with historic steps taken to support you – to stop the flow of illegal guns, to hold gun traffickers accountable for crimes. It matters, and it matters a lot," Biden said. According to data released by the FBI in March, violent crime decreased 6% in 2023 from the year before, with murder down 13% and property crime showing a decrease of 4%. It was the second year in a row that the overall crime rate has gone down.
Claim: “Violent crime is near a record 50-year low.” (Joe Biden, 2024-05-15)
Evidence (2023-12-11): Americans tend to think that crime is rising, but the evidence we have right now points to sizable declines this year (even if there are always outliers). The quarterly data in particular suggests 2023 featured one of the lowest rates of violent crime in the United States in more than 50 years. [...] The decline in crime shown in the quarterly data — if realized — would be historically large. To put some of this in perspective, a 4 percent decline in the nation’s violent crime rate relative to 2022’s reported rate would lead to the lowest violent crime rate nationally since 1969. [...] As I said above, the quarterly data is not the complete national estimates which will be published by the FBI next year, so a grain of salt is needed when thinking of how large the declines will be. That said, the percent changes shown in the quarterly data would be the largest percent declines ever recorded in overall violent crime, murder, rape, and aggravated assault with near-record high declines in robbery, overall property crime, theft, and burglary.
Claim: “Violent crime is near a record 50-year low.” (Joe Biden, 2024-05-15)
Evidence (2023-01-26): MIAMI — Today, Governor Ron DeSantis announced his legislative proposal to maintain and further improve Florida’s 50-year record low crime rate. This proposal pushes back against the abolishment of cash bail, increases penalties for drug-related crimes, steps up human smuggling interdictions, strengthens the punishment for child rapists, prevents the early release of sex criminals, and makes it more feasible to administer ultimate justice to those facing the death penalty. More details on the Governor’s proposal can be found here. [...] This law and order legislation will be in addition to Governor DeSantis’ previous pro-public safety initiatives, including hallmark anti-rioting legislation, the strongest law enforcement recruitment and support initiative in the nation, and a crackdown on opioid dealers and drug traffickers. Because of these policies, Floridians are enjoying a 50-year record low crime rate, and year-over-year crime in Florida is down nearly ten percent, with murder down 14 percent, burglary down 15 percent, and robbery down 17 percent.
Claim: “Violent crime is near a record 50-year low.” (Joe Biden, 2024-05-15)
Evidence (2024-08-27): A study published by Poynter last month found that official data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), although lagging, shows an overall decrease in violent crime during Biden's presidency. In a speech at a national police memorial service in May, Biden stated, "It's no accident that violent crime is near a record 50-year low." Poynter's analysis of FBI data, compiled by analyst Jeff Asher of AH Datalytics, confirmed that Biden's statement is accurate. The violent crime rate, which comprises homicide, rape, robbery, and aggravated assault, peaked in 1991 and has been falling since, with a few upward blips, notably during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using two different 50-year time spans, the study found that the 2022 violent crime rate of just under 370 per 100,000 residents is indeed near the lowest levels in the past five decades. The rate was only marginally lower in 2014 and 2019.