copenlu/druid huggingface dataset:
Claim: VAERS data are “crystal clear”: “the COVID vaccines are killing people” (Steve Kirsch, 2023-10-08)
Evidence (2023-01-17): Underlying all these rumors is the belief that COVID-19 vaccines are seriously harmful, with some postulating that they are intended to depopulate the planet. If this fanciful rumor had any merit, we would expect those who are vaccinated for COVID to be more likely to die than those who are unvaccinated. In fact, we see the opposite. The U.K. Health Security Agency recently released data evaluating all deaths (COVID-19, car accidents, strokes, etc.) in the U.K. by vaccination status, after adjusting for age. This is powerful data because it allows us to remove noise from the debate—it doesn’t matter if the death was "with" or "from" COVID or how the person died. [...] The tight link between COVID and excess deaths was seen even in Florida (see red arrow below), which has recently stopped recommending mRNA vaccines for men aged 18-39 based on a deeply flawed analysis.
Claim: VAERS data are “crystal clear”: “the COVID vaccines are killing people” (Steve Kirsch, 2023-10-08)
Evidence (2023-09-20): The headline of his blog post read: "VAERS data is crystal clear: The COVID vaccines are killing an estimated 1 person per 1,000 doses (676,000 dead Americans)". [...] VAERS reports of deaths alone don’t prove that COVID-19 vaccines killed people [...] In summary, it’s incorrect to claim that increased reports of death in VAERS is due to the COVID-19 vaccines. The increase in deaths reported to VAERS after the rollout of the COVID-19 vaccines was due to the heightened reporting requirements for these vaccines. Published studies didn’t find that vaccinated people are more likely to die compared to unvaccinated people. It is COVID-19 itself that poses a greater risk of causing blood clots, not COVID-19 vaccination.
Claim: VAERS data are “crystal clear”: “the COVID vaccines are killing people” (Steve Kirsch, 2023-10-08)
Evidence (2023-08-08): "VAERS data is crystal clear," the headline read. "The COVID vaccines are killing an estimated 1 person per 1,000 doses (676,000 dead Americans)." [...] Steve Kirsch’s Newsletter, "VAERS data is crystal clear: The COVID vaccines are killing an estimated 1 person per 1,000 doses (676,000 dead Americans)," Aug. 6, 2023 Health Feedback, "VAERS data don’t show that COVID-19 vaccines are deadly; Steve Kirsch’s claim to the contrary relied on flawed analysis," Aug. 6, 2023
Claim: VAERS data are “crystal clear”: “the COVID vaccines are killing people” (Steve Kirsch, 2023-10-08)
Evidence (2023-02-10): FACT: As of August 9, the CDC said there had been 8,054 vaccinated people who were hospitalized or died who had also tested positive for coronavirus—out of more than 166 million fully vaccinated Americans. That’s roughly .005 percent. Additionally, CDC director Rochelle Walensky has said that 99.5 percent of all deaths from COVID-19 are in the unvaccinated.—Politifact, Fact Checking Joe Biden’s Figure on Unvaccinated COVID-19 Deaths Hamer: COVID vaccines have been shown to be very powerful in preventing more severe disease and the need for hospitalization. Breakthroughs occur at a much, much lower rate than in people who are unvaccinated. The breakthroughs have been occurring more frequently with the Delta variant because of the high level of infectiousness (or transmissibility) of the Delta variant and lower protection of current vaccines against this variant. But people having breakthroughs have much more mild infection, more like an upper respiratory infection. The vaccines prevent severe disease and complications and allow people to return to a more normal state. [...] Hamer: COVID vaccines are not made with live virus SARS-COV-2 virus cells. They are not giving individuals the virus itself so you can’t get COVID from getting the vaccine.
Claim: VAERS data are “crystal clear”: “the COVID vaccines are killing people” (Steve Kirsch, 2023-10-08)
Evidence (2023-06-09): The Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) is a national early warning system to detect possible safety problems in vaccines used in the United States. VAERS accepts and analyzes reports of adverse events (AEs) after a person has received a vaccination. For licensed COVID-19 vaccines (Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech in people ages 12 years and older), healthcare providers are strongly encouraged to report to VAERS: For COVID-19 vaccines given under an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA), vaccination providers are required to report to VAERS:
Claim: VAERS data are “crystal clear”: “the COVID vaccines are killing people” (Steve Kirsch, 2023-10-08)
Evidence (2024-08-08): Multiple factors contribute to reports of death after COVID-19 vaccination, including heightened public awareness of COVID-19 vaccines, requirements under FDA authorization for COVID-19 vaccines that healthcare providers report any death after COVID-19 vaccination to VAERS (even if it is unclear whether the vaccine was the cause), and reporting requirements in CDC vaccine provider agreements. People receiving COVID-19 vaccines are less likely to die from COVID-19 and its complications and are at no greater risk of death from non-COVID causes, than unvaccinated people.27282930
Claim: VAERS data are “crystal clear”: “the COVID vaccines are killing people” (Steve Kirsch, 2023-10-08)
Evidence (2021-06-14): In fact, VAERS has played a major role in the spread of misinformation about COVID-19 vaccines. The data is regularly appropriated by anti-vaccine advocates, who use the reports to claim falsely that COVID-19 vaccines are dangerous. They are aided by the fact that the entire VAERS database is public — it can be downloaded by anyone for any purpose. [...] The problem, says Saad Omer, director of the Yale Institute for Global Health, is that many of those deaths in the VAERS database were caused by other illnesses that happened around the same time as the immunization and had nothing to do with a vaccine: "Vaccines decrease your risk of COVID-19," Omer notes. "They don't make you immortal." [...] In an emailed statement, the CDC tells NPR the agency is aware of the misuse of the VAERS data but has no immediate plans to change the system. That's in part because VAERS is one of the agency's best sources for early warnings about real side effects. VAERS data helped to identify allergic reactions and blood clotting disorders caused by the COVID-19 vaccines. Both side effects are extremely rare, and doctors say the benefits of vaccination far outweigh the risks.
Claim: The long-term tide gauge datasets are all in agreement that there is no acceleration (Willis Eschenbach, 2020-03-08)
Evidence (2020-03-08): Peer-reviewed global analyses of both tide gauge and satellite data have demonstrated that sea level rise has, in fact, accelerated in recent decades.
Claim: The long-term tide gauge datasets are all in agreement that there is no acceleration (Willis Eschenbach, 2020-03-08)
Evidence (2020-04-01): CLAIM: The long-term tide gauge datasets are all in agreement that there is no acceleration, neither in the early nor in the recent parts of the records. Yes, they often porpoise a bit above and a bit below the trend line, but there is no evidence of any CO2-caused recent increase in the rate of sea-level rise. The satellite dataset, on the other hand, is a splice of a selected four of the nine available satellite sea-level datasets. The changes in trend seem to be associated with the splices. Unfortunately, this spliced record is both too short and too fractured to draw any conclusions about acceleration.
Claim: The long-term tide gauge datasets are all in agreement that there is no acceleration (Willis Eschenbach, 2020-03-08)
Evidence (2014-07-05): Boretti A (2012) Is there any support in the long term tide gauge data to the claims that parts of Sydney will be swamped by rising sea levels? Coast Eng 64:161–167. doi:10.1016/j.coastaleng.2012.01.006 [...] Hunter JR, Brown MJI (2013) Discussion of Boretti, A., ‘Is there any support in the long term tide gauge data to the claims that parts of Sydney will be swamped by rising sea levels?’, Coast Eng 64:161–167, June 2012. Coast Eng 75:1–3. doi:10.1016/j.coastaleng.2012.12.003 [...] Parker A (2013b) Natural oscillations and trends in long-term tide gauge records from the Pacic. Pattern Recogn Phys 1:11–23. doi:10.5194/prp-1-11-2013
Claim: The long-term tide gauge datasets are all in agreement that there is no acceleration (Willis Eschenbach, 2020-03-08)
Evidence (2024-09-23): PSMSL is the global data bank for long term sea level change information from tide gauges and bottom pressure recorders.
Claim: The long-term tide gauge datasets are all in agreement that there is no acceleration (Willis Eschenbach, 2020-03-08)
Evidence (2021-05-04): Taking extreme value analysis as an example, the rule of thumb is that extrapolation of extreme water level events should be limited to return periods not longer than four times the available record length4. This means in order to derive an estimate of the 100-year storm surge level, at least 25 years of data are needed (to derive a 500-year event, 125 years of data would be needed). However, tide gauge records, which are the main data source for storm surge information, often cover much shorter time periods. From the global dataset of extreme sea level observations we used, 45% of the 882 tide gauges included in this study have less than 25 years of data. Moreover, analyzing long-term trends and multi-decadal variability in the storm surge climate is also hampered by short record lengths. To assess the long-term trend in global mean sea level it has been estimated, for example, that a minimum of 60 years of data are required5, which is the case for only 12% of the tide gauges analyzed here; given the larger variability, even longer records are needed to reliably explore long-term changes in the storm surge climate.
Claim: The long-term tide gauge datasets are all in agreement that there is no acceleration (Willis Eschenbach, 2020-03-08)
Evidence (2024-08-09): Long-Term Sea Level Periodicities over the European Seas from Altimetry and Tide Gauge Data [...] Zid, F.; Vigo, M.I.; Vargas-Alemañy, J.A.; García-García, D. Long-Term Sea Level Periodicities over the European Seas from Altimetry and Tide Gauge Data. Remote Sens. 2024, 16, 2931. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs16162931 Zid F, Vigo MI, Vargas-Alemañy JA, García-García D. Long-Term Sea Level Periodicities over the European Seas from Altimetry and Tide Gauge Data. Remote Sensing. 2024; 16(16):2931. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs16162931
Claim: The long-term tide gauge datasets are all in agreement that there is no acceleration (Willis Eschenbach, 2020-03-08)
Evidence (2024-09-20): Data Collection: Tide gauges provide continuous measurements and are vital for both measuring short-term changes and long-term sea level records, with some datasets extending over a century.
Claim: The long-term tide gauge datasets are all in agreement that there is no acceleration (Willis Eschenbach, 2020-03-08)
Evidence (2022-05-16): A previous version of the coastal sea-level product was recently validated against tide gauge observations in Ref. 17, and we defer to that study for full details. Here, we briefly summarize the results of such validation. To ensure a proper validation, tide gauge records were adjusted for vertical land motions using Global Positioning System (GPS) vertical velocities. We found an average correlation of 0.5 between monthly tide gauge records and point-level altimetry data, but the correlation increases to 0.78 when averaging the altimetry data along and across tracks for data that fall within a small distance from each tide gauge. The increase in correlation achieved by averaging occurs because it reduces both sampling uncertainty (monthly means are based on more than 3 values) and the influence of small-scale variability. Linear trends were found to be in good statistical agreement at 64% of the tide gauge stations.
Claim: The long-term tide gauge datasets are all in agreement that there is no acceleration (Willis Eschenbach, 2020-03-08)
Evidence (2022-03-18): An alternative procedure to compute the sea-level acceleration from long-term-trend tide gauge records [...] The thermosteric effect attributed to global warming is responsible for the acceleration of the sea levels. This acceleration should be computed by clearing the tide gauge signal of the natural oscillations to avoid interpreting a part of a periodic movement as unprecedented sea-level change. This requires time series long enough to discover the longer periodicities and the amplitudes of the oscillations. Specific examples are given for the Fort Denison tide gauge record in Sydney, New South Wales, Australia, and Fremantle, Western Australia, Australia. Aggregate statistics are presented based on the tide gauge records hosted by the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (www.psmsl.org). Parabolic fitting of the raw and processed data with the removal of fitted sinusoids only converges in the acceleration estimate for record lengths of 110 + years. The revised procedure provides reliable estimations of the acceleration already with a record length of 90 + years. [...] Boretti, A. An alternative procedure to compute the sea-level acceleration from long-term-trend tide gauge records.
Claim: The long-term tide gauge datasets are all in agreement that there is no acceleration (Willis Eschenbach, 2020-03-08)
Evidence (2022-09-09): Tide gauges and satellite altimetry are complimentary datasets, and both are necessary to observe the complete spectrum of processes that lead to sea level variability. Since 1993, satellite altimeters have provided continuous, near-global (± 66ºN) measurements of sea surface height. These measurements provide definitive estimates of global mean sea level rise during recent decades (~3.2 mm/year from 1993 to present) with much less uncertainty than the global rate derived from tide gauges. Tide gauges, on the other hand, provide the long-term context that is necessary to interpret the short satellite record. [...] The Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL; http://www.psmsl.org/) provides a global archive of monthly and annual quality-controlled sea level records. Based on the quality of the benchmark history, PSMSL categorizes tide gauge records into one of two datasets: the Revised Local Reference (RLR) dataset, and the Metric dataset. Records in the RLR dataset have a well-defined and internally consistent benchmark history, which makes these records suitable for studies of long-term sea level change. The Metric records, on the other hand, are missing complete benchmark histories, and PSMSL advises that these gauges are not to be used for climate studies.
Claim: The long-term tide gauge datasets are all in agreement that there is no acceleration (Willis Eschenbach, 2020-03-08)
Evidence (2020-03-08): With that as prologue, I decided to look at the longest sea-level records and see if there is any acceleration. We have a few of these that have 100 to 150+ years of data. This is long enough to remove most of the long-term tidal cycles. As above, I used the CEEMD method to remove the cycles, leaving just the underlying residual. To start with, I looked at the sea-level data for Cuxhaven in Germany. It’s a 176-year dataset. [...] So those are the majority of the long tidal datasets. I gotta say, I am simply not seeing the acceleration claimed by the boffins. I don’t know just how they’ve calculated their results, but the best long-term datasets that we have simply don’t show the acceleration that they claim to find. [...] The long-term tide gauge datasets are all in agreement that there is no acceleration, neither in the early nor in the recent parts of the records. Yes, they often porpoise a bit above and a bit below the trend line, but there is no evidence of any CO2-caused recent increase in the rate of sea-level rise.
Claim: The long-term tide gauge datasets are all in agreement that there is no acceleration (Willis Eschenbach, 2020-03-08)
Evidence (2021-02-12): On regional scales, the majority of 177 tide-gauge records (80%) have positive accelerations over 1970–2018, with their weighted-mean value (0.063 ± 0.120 mm yr−2) also lying between the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 projections, as for the GMSL acceleration. However, because of the short period available for comparison, the regional accelerations that are not yet statistically different to the projections for any of the scenarios. The AR5_lp projections indicate a significant regional weighted-mean accelerations (e.g. 0.053 ± 0.019 mm yr−2 under RCP4.5), which highlights the importance of identifying and possibly removing the natural variability in detecting any anthropogenic acceleration in sea-level rise. The earlier detection of a significant increase in the rate of sea-level rise is important in informing the public and supporting direct adequate mitigation and adaptation responses. With the long timescale of ocean thermal expansion and ice-sheet contributions, the agreement between the observed and projected accelerations do not bode well for sea-level impacts over coming decades.
Claim: The long-term tide gauge datasets are all in agreement that there is no acceleration (Willis Eschenbach, 2020-03-08)
Evidence (2019-08-05): Previous studies reconstructed twentieth-century global mean sea level (GMSL) from sparse tide-gauge records to understand whether the recent high rates obtained from satellite altimetry are part of a longer-term acceleration. However, these analyses used techniques that can only accurately capture either the trend or the variability in GMSL, but not both. Here we present an improved hybrid sea-level reconstruction during 1900–2015 that combines previous techniques at time scales where they perform best. We find a persistent acceleration in GMSL since the 1960s and demonstrate that this is largely (~76%) associated with sea-level changes in the Indo-Pacific and South Atlantic. We show that the initiation of the acceleration in the 1960s is tightly linked to an intensification and a basin-scale equatorward shift of Southern Hemispheric westerlies, leading to increased ocean heat uptake, and hence greater rates of GMSL rise, through changes in the circulation of the Southern Ocean.
Claim: The long-term tide gauge datasets are all in agreement that there is no acceleration (Willis Eschenbach, 2020-03-08)
Evidence (2024-05-17): Analyses of coastal tide gauge measurements spanning the past ~30–100 years have shown that ocean tides undergo unexpected changes on interannual, decadal, and secular time scales1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9. The changes themselves are rather subtle—typically ~1–3 cm in amplitude over a century—but large enough to rule out a connection to variations in the astronomical forcing5. At the local scale and in special regional settings10, tidal properties may easily be affected by alterations of geometry, caused by, e.g., coastal engineering measures, wetland loss, or harbor dredging if we extend our scope slightly more inland11. However, most regional assessments (see references above) point to a certain degree of spatial coherence in the patterns of tidal change, likely bearing on the role of broader natural, rather than local anthropogenic factors. Satellite radar altimetry, now providing 30 years’ worth of data, has begun to add to the picture drawn by tide gauges at the coast; recent analysis by Bij de Vaate et al.12 suggests negative M2 amplitude trends of ~− 0.3 mm yr−1 across the subpolar North Atlantic and in the Gulf of Alaska.
Claim: The long-term tide gauge datasets are all in agreement that there is no acceleration (Willis Eschenbach, 2020-03-08)
Evidence (2020-04-01): At first, only a few isolated tide-gauge records are discussed. Mainly because of ocean dynamics, local and regional sea level shows large decadal and multi-decadal variations, and therefore it is indeed difficult to find an acceleration in a single tide gauge record. Only European and US tide-gauge records are shown. Because these tide gauges are relatively close to the places where most of the ice melt that has driven sea-level changes since ~1900, they will see much less sea-level rise from ice melt than the global mean due to gravity and solid-Earth effects. Therefore, without explicitly taking this into account, we cannot say anything about global sea levels based on records in Europe and North America alone. When all available tide-gauge records are combined to compute global sea levels, a clear acceleration in sea level since 1900 is visible[2]. Combined with longer proxy records, the data shows that global sea levels have risen at a faster pace than any other century over the last 3,000 years, and that the 21st-century rate of global sea level is already three times as high as the twentieth-century rate[3].
Claim: The long-term tide gauge datasets are all in agreement that there is no acceleration (Willis Eschenbach, 2020-03-08)
Evidence (2009-01-01): Although the shorter records have proved to be useful, there naturally continues to be most interest in the longer ones. Fig. 5(a) presents a scatter plot between the tide gauge trends for the 20th century for the five long record stations alone (from Table 1) and their corresponding geological values. One obtains similar conclusions as from Fig. 4. The offset is 1.37 ± 0.24 mm yr−1, similar to that based on all stations. The most outlying of the five appears to be Newlyn, either because its tide gauge MSL trend is too low or its geological rate suggests too much submergence. This anomaly in the Shennan & Horton (2002) data set has been remarked upon by Gehrels (2006). Fig. 5(b) includes the same MSL data but this time compared to rates of vertical land movement based on an updated combination of continuous GPS (CGPS) and AG data using the methods of Teferle et al. (2006, 2008) and Bingley et al. (2007). In this case, the offset is 1.06 ± 0.16 mm yr−1 (standard error again based on tide gauge errors. This can be increased by 30 per cent if the large CGPS/AG errors are also considered.).
Claim: The long-term tide gauge datasets are all in agreement that there is no acceleration (Willis Eschenbach, 2020-03-08)
Evidence (2014-04-14): To avoid bias, we therefore recommend, and here use, the approach of Jevrejeva et al.12,24, (also applied in refs 25 and 26), which systematically estimates quadratic coefficients and their uncertainty (95% confidence) for all possible start dates and data lengths of our artificially extended records (see Methods). For just the historic records, our results (Fig. 3a,b), like ref. 26, show that accelerations (that is, two times the quadratic coefficient) are rarely diagnosed to be statistically different from zero in individual tide gauge records, particularly in records shorter than about 130 years. In tide gauge records, both the magnitude and sign of the acceleration are dominated by interannual to multidecadal variability: to a greater extent for sites with large variability such as Fremantle; and to a lesser but still significant extent for sites with smaller variability such as Newlyn. Note that large accelerations observed over shorter timescales are real. However, they are mainly due to natural internal variability and mask any externally forced accelerations (see Discussion).