The total number of NIH grants during the same period was approximately 150,000. These figures produce a fabrication rate for published papers of 0.0004, assuming each research grant produced on average the same number of papers. In 1998, the top 5600 scientific journals published approximately 1 million articles, and it is estimated this is approximately one-tenth of the total world output. Considering only the top 1 million publications and applying the fabrication rate derived from the NIH evidence, we find the expected number of publications each year in all scientific fields involving fabricated data is approximately 400 papers for the top 5600 journals, and perhaps as much as 10 times that if all scientific journals are considered. In general, the idea that only a few fraudulent scientific papers are published each year is probably a complete fallacy.
Some scientists fear that publicized cases are merely the tip of an iceberg.
Others remain convinced that the overall incidence remains low, and even those with direct experience of misconduct cases are often optimistic. Many journal editors believe that breaches of the traditional ethics of scientific publication are increasing, but few editors are confident of how they should react. Investigating committees have already identified 58 papers by Herrmann and Brach that involve apparently fabricated data, but investigation of the publications is only 20 percent finished. The investigation will take months to complete, and the intention is to publish the results in an international journal. Science comes to terms with the lessons of fraud.