Glantz adds that, despite what some researchers suggest, no one forecast the onset of the 1997 El Ni o. Every El Ni o has surprised scientists. Forecasting has gotten better, Glantz said, but it's not perfect. El Ni o is still a surprise. But Glantz' interest in El Ni o goes far beyond the science of forecasting the onset, intensity and length of the phenomenon.
Some people are more prepared to react to a forecast.
For example, the forecast of the 1997 El Ni o allowed big fishing industries to lay off fisherman and canning employees earlier than they would normally. These workers did not have access to the forecast to be able to plan for a slow fishing season, Ray said. El Ni o is your earliest warning of possible problems. Glantz studies outbreaks of disease, flooding, drought, temperature changes, and how all of these affect people. He also tries to distinguish events that were caused by El Ni o, and those that would have happened anyway.