McGuire uses historical and current data to map the ecological processes of the carbon cycle. Dargaville uses historical data to predict activity in the carbon cycle into the future. Together, these pieces of information can be tested against each other to bring scientists closer to accurate predictions. Historically, cold climate conditions have led to substantial carbon storage in Arctic soils, leading to the potential for large amounts of carbon to be released into the atmosphere if the climate warms. Temperatures have been warming in the Arctic for the past 30 years.
Scientists often look to the Arctic for indications of the effects of global warming.
The Arctic is a bellwether area for climate change and global warming. Climate models suggest that the impact of global warming will occur first and be most pronounced in the Arctic. Climate change isn't caused solely by humans. Natural fluctuations in ocean and atmospheric dynamics have generated warm and cold climate trends for millions of years. Although the evidence seems clear that increased use of fossil fuels by humans is having unprecedented effects on current global climate, it is difficult for scientists to predict how these changes will affect terrestrial carbon storage in the future.