After a deliberate advance to the Terek a well-prepared Russian assault took Grozny once again, but only after flattening much of the city with air, artillery, and rocket strikes. The Chechen resistance was forced from the city. The war reverted to insurgency. The longer the war in Chechnya, the greater the risk of the territorial expansion of the conflict, and of external intervention. The war is a profound tragedy for Russian democracy and for Chechen nationalism.
Violence drives out any chance for dialogue and compromise.
Should Russia and Chechnya agree to go their separate ways and Chechnya attains her full independence, Chechnya is likely to revert to the same situation that plagued the land between the 1996 cease fire and the current fighting. Russian intervention is the single unifying factor among most Chechens, and in the absence of a Russian threat, the various Chechen clans will re-establish control over their traditional territory and clash violently over disputed areas. Criminalization of the state and the great game developing over Caspian oil and gas will make foreign intervention more likely. The potential dismemberment of Russia would precipitate a major Eurasian crisis that would inevitably draw in neighboring nations and provoke other realignments of peoples and clans. Should Russia continue to stay and fight it out, she may eke out a costly win.