In addition, Bonnefous pointed out that no major change is foreseen in Iraq's political landscape. Despite the dramatic defection of several of his family and tragic mutinies among tribal adherents, Saddam Hussein still rules Iraq. From their perspective, several countries in the region appear reluctant to pursue any policy that would contribute to the collapse of the current regime. Half a dozen opposition groups, acting mostly from abroad, have yet to agree on a common program of action. Uppermost in people's minds is the daily search for food and better sanitary conditions, in other words, survival, rather than insurrection.
Sanctions can only work as part of a broader strategy.
The lack of such a strategy is made painfully obvious in the Iraqi case, by the fact that sanctions are being applied not only to the territory under Saddam's control but also to the Northern area, from which the Western powers have obliged Iraq to withdraw its troops. In fact, the real outcome is punishment for the northern populations, a large part of which is fighting the Baghdad regime, namely the Kurds. Bonnefous recalled that some observers believe that the United Nations has pursued an embargo policy not only to leverage Iraq's foreign and defense policies, but also to strengthen the U.N.'s bargaining position concerning the Kurdish problem in the north as well as the Shi'a problem in the South, both of which hold implications for political stability throughout the Gulf region. It is true that Iraq continues its internal embargo against the Kurds and its repression of the Shi'ite population. But, he contended, we are confronting these problems with legal and military means other than Resolutions 661 and 687.