In those cases, business tended to side with the more or less pro-market party. But in the post-Cold War era, ideological lines have blurred, especially on economic issues. Tony Blair and Bill Clinton sound pro-business in most contexts. When business, particularly big business, no longer feels its existence is on the line, it is much more likely to look to its narrow interests, and to whatever group of politicians can best serve them at any given time. Whatever fund-raising success Democrats may be enjoying in the struggle for Congress, we can hear conservatives saying, surely little of this applies to presidential politics.
Soft money begins to matter only after the party nominee is known.
In the 2000 election cycle, that phase began for both parties in early March. Between March and June, both parties raised soft money and spent little. The Republican National Committee decided not to counter or to run significant pro-Bush ads of its own. Gore has now narrowed the gap with Bush. The DNC ads and the poll shift may be unrelated.