The Marsh Arabs had no choice but to flee. Between 80,000 and 120,000 crossed the border into Iran. The Marsh Arabs are only one set of players in a rapidly escalating international nightmare. Myers has calculated that the number is likely to rise to 50 million by 2010, and could reach 200 million by the middle of the next century if global warming causes the rise in sea levels, erratic growing seasons and dislocation of weather patterns that have been predicted. Politicians are becoming worried.
Scientists are worried, too, and increasing numbers are asking what can be done.
One prominent researcher is Stuart Leiderman, an environmental scientist at the University of New Hampshire. In 1992, he began to research the problem of environmental refugees worldwide, and develop strategies to help them. Now he is developing a model to try to predict which peoples may be under threat. He believes that the way we think about refugees needs redefining. Current refugee status, and rights of asylum, are only given to those with a well-founded fear of persecution for reasons related to race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group or political opinion.