The carry-over stocks, given the official crop estimate of 2.04 million tonne, is projected to be 400,000 tonne. There is much speculation, however, as to the accuracy of the crop estimate, which would reduce this carry-over stock figure to 200,000 tonne. Further to this, is that while GMB's local intake of the past crop was in the region of 300,000 tonne, a percentage of this is stockfeed grade. With maize consumption estimated to be 150,000 tonne per month, stocks should be entirely depleted by 20 th June, 2001. Matabeleland South and parts of the SE Lowveld are reported to be dry, but the situation in terms of grass and water is far from desperate.
Vaccines generally are in short supply in the country.
The Veterinary Department's strategy is that when an outbreak is reported, the concerned area is quarantined and all cattle in the area are vaccinated. Farmers in communal areas are co-operating with this, while commercial farmers are responsible for vaccinating their own cattle on a commercial basis. Viral diseases such as three-day stiff sickness, lumpy skin and Rift Valley fever will become more prevalent particularly in the face of vaccine shortages. The beef industry is at a critical point with the imminent arrival of the EU veterinary inspectors from 16-24 January. If we fail the inspection and lose the EU market, the industry will have taken a huge step backwards.