Yet, the West may not be of much help, either. Exposure of these countries to market economics means that most may see little gain from their oil and gas exports again this year. The troubles are reflected in revised economic forecasts, issued last month by the International Monetary Fund. The IMF now estimates that the gross domestic product of the Transcaucasus and Central Asian region grew just 2.1 percent in 1998, instead of the 4.1 percent estimated in October. The IMF sees 3 percent growth in 1999, down from the 3.8 percent that was expected only three months ago.
Some independent estimates are lower.
The Economist Intelligence Unit, for example, believes Kazakhstan's GDP will decline 2.5 percent this year, while the IMF is calling for zero growth. The difference may be only a matter of timing, however. The IMF says the republic's economy has already fallen 1.5 percent in 1998, although analysts at The Economist estimate that it rose 1 percent. Either way, the disappointing performance has forced the country to seek new loans. But the biggest difference is in estimates for Turkmenistan.