While declining in frequency, the threat of inter-state war has not vanished, and the potential consequences of such a war should not be underestimated. Technological advances and proliferation of weaponry mean that future wars between states will exact a horrific toll on civilians. At the same time national security is insufficient to guarantee people's security. A growing number of armed conflicts are being fought within, rather than between, states. The warring factions in these civil wars are often irregular forces with loose chains of command, frequently divided along ethnic or religious lines.
Small arms are the weapon of choice and non-combatants account for eight out of ten casualties.
Greater exposure to violence is not limited to situations of armed conflict. It is also directly related to the erosion of state control. Challenges to state control can also be seen in the expansion of organized crime, drug trafficking, and the growth of private security forces. Security for people is also affected by a broadening range of transnational threats. In an increasingly interdependent world we routinely experience mutual, if unequal vulnerability.