Until caseloads went into free fall in the last couple of years, welfare officials had little reason to wonder what happened to families that left, except perhaps to wonder why some returned later. Tracking former welfare recipients is difficult, costly and time-consuming. Welfare officials have not made it a policy to keep in touch with former recipients. Nor have such families had reason to let officials, or even advocacy groups, know what they're up to. In addition, research can be expensive.
Time is a factor, too.
Kaplan said researchers wouldn't know until three years into W-2 whether it is working. A follow-up survey is scheduled for 1999. The Institute for Research on Poverty is comparing state data beginning in 1993 on 8,600 families receiving public assistance to spot trends in exits and re-entries to welfare over the years. The Hudson Institute and Mathematica Policy Research Inc. are interviewing 250 Milwaukee County families diverted from applying for cash assistance, another 250 who applied for the assistance and 250 who left the rolls. Researchers hope to see how families have responded to changes in welfare policies and systems.