By rehearsing the future in this way, scenarios enable an organization to adapt more quickly to what is actually happening, and to anticipate better what could happen. In the face of some major new development, the organization doesn't have to spend months in denial, and then more months developing options. New proposals can be flown through the scenarios, using them as a sort of wind tunnel to test their resilience. Decisions that have been pre-tested against a range of what fate may offer are more likely to stand the test of time. And taking an informed long view may give an organization the courage to stick to a set of priorities, rather than backing off in the face of resistance or short-term failure.
Scenario planning is intellectually rich and challenging.
But it's not a dry academic exercise. It's a conversation, involving human beings who want to learn together.