Probability Methods are presented for computing the probabilities of chance occurrences. The binomial formula is stressed. Examples are introduced which explain how probability is used to model the unpredictability of human responses. The use of aggregation as a method for concentrating information from widely variable measurements, such as are encountered in social surveys. The concept of a sample survey is studied from the design stage through the conduct of the survey to the analysis of the results.
Special attention is given to the role of chance errors on the accuracy of the results.
Application to large scale surveys, such as are done regularly by Statistics Canada, are discussed. Estimation and Tests of Significance Elementary methods of analyzing the results of controlled experiments and observational studies are presented. Methods for distinguishing reproducible trends from those that are temporary and due to sampling error are examined. Applications to surveys in sociology, criminology and political science. Please pay careful attention to the options discussed in class at the beginning of the semester.