Yes, if present trends continue, by 2050 the world will be plowing under massive amounts of land for farms. Phosphorous and nitrogen fertilizer runoff will cause an explosion of algae in river outlets, killing off plants and marine animals. Habitat destruction would cause unprecedented ecosystem simplification, loss of ecosystem services, and species extinctions. Alas, if trends had continued last year with the Nasdaq, I might be wealthy today instead of looking for a 30-story building to jump from in a city with nothing higher than 13 stories. For better or worse, trends never continue.
Trends reflect underlying factors.
And the factors underlying farming and crop nutrients make clear that you needn t fear waking up in the morning to find a bag of fertilizer lying next to you. Scary Study is chiefly authored by David Tilman of the oddly named Department of Ecology, Evolution and Behavior at the University of Minnesota. It s probably correct in predicting that world population will grow about 50 percent by 2050, and that we ll need much food to feed these people. Beyond that, their analysis flounders. Unlike Scary Study, FAO s nutrient forecasts are based on actual estimates of crop production by country for 34 crop categories.