Use concepts of certainty, fairness, and chance to discuss the probability of actual events. They notice that they are writing some number sentences more frequently than others, and these observations lead into a discussion of probability. Each child plants five seeds of a fast growing plant. They count the number of seeds which sprout and discuss how many seeds might sprout if they had each planted ten, or twenty, or a hundred seeds. They explain their reasoning.
Students refine their predictions by looking at the class totals.
The mystery bag is then opened and the colors counted. Students discuss how their prediction matches theactual count and how the experiment helped them make their prediction. Students examine various types of raisin bran cereal. They experiment with scoops of cereal and determine the number of raisins that appear in each scoop. References Lindquist, M., et al.