For example, all four forecasts use input data from the same snowcourse, rather than allowing one or more forecasts to use data from different snowcourses. Each of these models is good enough to use as a replacement for the best equation, in case of missing data on any forecast date. Lakeshore flooding along Kalamalka Lake in 1997 caused by high spring runoff. The optimal new models are compared with the 1984 models in Table 1. Table 1 also indicates that most of the model improvement from the 1984 multiple regression models to the new models is due to the use of principal components analysis and model optimization, rather than to the use of a longer data set.
Statistics are for the equations with the lowest standard error for each forecast date.
Such improvements could be achieved only with near-perfect precipitation forecasts. The new 1999 models will help MELP manage Kalamalka and Okanagan Lakes by providing better mid-winter forecasts of the coming spring inflows, and enabling operational lake management decisions to be made with greater confidence earlier in the season. References Alley, W.M. and A.W. Burns. Mixed-Station Extension of Monthly Streamflow Records. Carroll, S.S. and N. Cressie.