To begin with, 40.6 percent of the district's secondary school students fell into at least one of the at-risk categories, over 50 percent on some campuses, too large a target for meaningful intervention. In terms of predictive accuracy, only 13.9 percent of Houston's at-risk students actually dropped out, and almost half the dropouts were not predicted. Before we can predict who will drop out, we must know who is dropping out. Experts agree that educators and policymakers must set a standard definition of dropping out before accurate, comparable data can be collected. LeCompte and Goebel say only a federal mandate can ensure uniformity in definitions as well as in basic reporting procedures among states and districts.
Several researchers urge that statistics be collected starting with elementary school.
It is hoped such studies will identify characteristics that permit earlier intervention. More accurate recordkeeping is essential. Barber and McClellan believe the necessary technology and personnel are already available. A systematic means of tracking transfers would be desirable. LeCompte and Goebel suggest a nationwide system modeled after the Migrant Student Record Transfer system but acknowledge the cost may be prohibitive.