I don't see how my conclusion is false. My conclusion was NOT that incursions do not occur. Moreover, I have not seen anything to indicate that all or even most incursions into TCAs are made by Airplanes Without Transponders. If the current regulations don't work, this won't either. As you noted, there's a difference between regulation and reality.
Transponders have to be turned on to work.
As others have noted, I think it will be some time before the system can handle that, although that may be a worthy goal. Even then, incursions will occur. As a side note, my brother has been training to become an Air Traffic Controller for about nine months. He won't even sit down at a radar screen for a long time yet. The first combat crews were trained in the US, then send to Thailand to fly missions to North Vietnam.