That's what a lender should be looking at. If you have a good niche product and know how to approach your market, you are more likely to be a successful operator. Moreover, competition is good because it heightens awareness and drives demand. The cycle has been trending down since August of 1998, primarily as existing capital providers have pulled back. This leaves a window of opportunity for new capital providers that see the long term opportunity and are willing to allocate the resources to become a committed, long term investor in the industry.
Singer believes part of the reason is that demand is going up and up.
But supply isn't necessarily going up because there isn't infinite money to build properties. Capital has not been available to the industry because the industry is imperfectly understood. It's not pure health care, so it doesn't carry the same investment characteristics. But if demand does in fact keep going up, and there are more seniors, and we are living longer, and the preference for alternatives to acute LTC exist, then the astute investor will see there is long term potential in the assisted living sector. Kramer pooh-poohs the idea.