As organizational environments become more turbulent and complex and as uncertainly about the future increases, reliance on quantitative decision-making approaches for strategic planning becomes less appropriate.
Scenario analysis can be an effective qualitative technique for enhancing strategic planning.
Typically, scenarios are presented as alternate futures. Some theorists, however, have suggested that forward and backward thinking are different cognitive processes. Results suggest that use of retrospective scenarios do increase both the quantity and the creativity of planning statements. A subset of subjects were better able to make use of the retrospective technique, suggesting that selection along with training may improve planning performance. The technique may be useful in crisis planning and in strategy formulation.