Many fear that this week's anniversary of the first religious riots to strike Ambon could spark renewed violence. Both sides are at a breaking point. In fact, no one really knows whether the violence has actually ebbed. In Jakarta an embattled General Wiranto, Coordinating Minister for Political and Security Affairs, used his own military's casualty figures to declare that the situation has stabilized. On the island of Halmahera last week, Muslim aid groups claimed to have found the charred corpses of more than 500 of their co-religionists and buried them in mass graves.
Some Christian groups deny any such massacre occurred.
The facts that all sides agree upon are more foreboding. Some 276,000 refugees have been scattered throughout and beyond the Moluccas, bringing with them little more than their fears and resentments. Areas like North Sulawesi, now home to 13,000 refugees from North Maluku, already suffer from religious tensions that could easily be exacerbated by the newcomers. There, local Muslims chafing at what they see as Christian dominance have already asked for their own province. If clashes break out, says Ali, they would likely be supported by their brethren in the predominantly Muslim province of South Sulawesi, which has also accepted thousands of refugees.