In fact, at several times there seems no way to get around some inconsistency. Yet it's a pretty good, suspenseful tale, well told, and worth following. This is complicated, because the wind direction changes from northerly, backing into the west to northwesterly. Since square-rigged ships can sail no closer than about 7 points from the wind, this puts stiff constraints on the maneuvers described, and there is an inconsistency in the timing of when the wind moves from north to northwest. The following is the best compromise between wind, successive position, bearing.
Visibility is intermittent through breaks in the fog.
However, if we allow southwest to be west and west-northwest to be north, then everything is fine. If the wind is from the north, sailing east would possible, but even close-hauled the farthest north she could head would only be a bit better than east north east. However, as the wind backs into the northwest, Surprise could head more northerly. Thus the China ships on the opposite tack must already be heading west-southwest. The best I can make of this is shown in Chart 1 .