Even if two wars occurred at roughly the same time, it's unlikely they would each require the half-million troops who served in the 1991 Persian Gulf War. Although things look good today, there are cracks in the U.S. military that, if allowed to worsen, could change the basic readiness picture within a few years. Some were almost unavoidable, given the new demands of the post-Cold War world, and some are being fixed today. But troubles remain. Morale is not very high these days.
Troops feel overworked, and the services are having trouble attracting and holding on to people.
Recent pay raises and efforts to make overseas deployments more predictable have improved some of these trends this year. Remedies are also needed on the hardware front. Much of the equipment bought during the Reagan era is starting to wear out. So while near-term equipment readiness is good, a new administration will need to act fast to keep it that way in 2005 and 2010. Modest spending increases may be necessary.