But what seems to be propelling current research on the topic is a genuine desire to learn more about the effects of massive disturbances in the earth's fragile atmosphere. Of course, those pioneering researchers stoutly maintain that science was always uppermost in their minds. At worst, they calculated, the temperatures could plunge to nearly 50 degrees C. below zero. Even the most dire predictions were bracketed by caveats, in part because one-dimensional models don t take into account a number of mitigating factors, such as the temperature buffering capabilities of the oceans. The numbers are in a state of flux.
Scientists are hard at work trying to firm up their data.
MacCracken s team has worked with both two and three-dimensional models to provide a much more realistic depiction of the way the world really works. The extra detail also allows researchers to examine the complex interactions between a variety of atmospheric factors, such as sunlight, rain, thermal structure, and circulation. His findings are very similar to those of Robert C. Malone, a senior scientist at Los Alamos National Laboratory, and his colleagues. For a summertime war that resuIts in a large injection of smoke, says Malone, our model predicts temperature changes of between 10 to 15 degrees C. below normal in the interiors of large continents in the northern hemisphere. The effect is substantially less, he adds, along the coasts and in the southern hemisphere.