The national caseload has declined by roughly 2.6 million welfare cases since peaking at 5 million in 1994, whereas the aggregate urban county caseload has fallen by almost 1 million cases from a 1994 total of 2.4 million. As a result of these slower declines, the nation's welfare cases are becoming more concentrated in urban areas. In 1999, the 89 top urban counties, with 33 percent of total U.S. population, accounted for 58 percent of the nation's welfare cases, up 10 percentage points since 1994. Ten urban counties now account for roughly one-third of all U.S. welfare cases. Clearly, urban areas are at the epicenter of welfare reform.
State policy accounts for some of it.
The two states accounted for 27 percent of the national caseload in 1994, but 34 percent in 1999. As a consequence of the slower reductions, five of the ten counties with the largest 1999 caseloads were in California. Other states chose to pursue welfare reform efforts much more aggressively and consequently achieved more dramatic declines, even in the cities. Wisconsin, where state-driven reform efforts predated federal reform, saw its caseload shrink by 90 percent between 1994 and 1999. But state policy doesn't explain everything going on with welfare reform.