He could get around 5 percent, according to some poll estimates. He's getting 10 percent in Minnesota and 6 percent in Wisconsin, two states where much of the electorate is similar to Iowa's. On top of that, there's been a wide streak of populism that's run through Iowa since the state was started. Nader taps into that better than Gore or Bush. This year, a lot of hard-pressed farm families feel abandoned by the Republican Congress that passed Freedom to Farm and a Democratic president who signed it.
Workers feel shafted by big corporations.
There's also a group of peace and social-justice voters who aren't interested in spending more on the Pentagon as Bush or Gore would do. There are several reasons for all of these folks to vote for Nader. A vote for Nader doesn't necessarily mean it's a vote lost to Gore. Some Nader voters wouldn't vote at all if he weren't on the ballot. A Bush presidency wouldn't be the end of the Earth.