It is based on publishers anticipation of how their basic costs will change over the next year, general economic conditions affecting the market and anticipated currency fluctuations. Blackwell's will revise these figures during the course of the year to provide increasingly accurate predictions for journal pricing. Most publishers seem to agree that production costs will rise by very little more than the cost of inflation and are unlikely to affect the overall price calculation significantly. A substantial number of electronic journals are expected to be launched for 1997 from many major publishers. However Blackwell's does not see the move towards electronic publications as having any significant impact on journal pricing during 1997.
Some publishers report that electronic publishing developments are increasing their overall costs.
Many publishers also believe it will be some time before electronic journals contribute significantly to revenue. Electronic journals may therefore add to the cost of the paper subscriptions in future years, though Blackwell's believes the impact will be small as far as 1997 prices are concerned. The number of electronic journals where access is priced independently of the paper subscriptions is expected to be small in 1997 but will grow thereafter. The following shows Blackwell's estimates of the impact on collections of these price rises on libraries in USA, Canada, UK, Europe and Australia allowing for currency fluctuations. Given the difficulty of being precise at this early stage of the year these figures are expressed as a range.