Given the nature of the FAIR Act with no braking mechanism on the supply side and the fact that government stocks are no longer a part of the equation, this poses an interesting pattern for prices in the future. In the first half of the next decade, prices will tend to the low side, even with poor crop years. Short crops followed by trend level production will replenish stocks fast enough to quickly return prices to the low side. But, if the projections are correct as income growth rebuilds in the latter part of the decade stocks again appear to become tighter. The income growth component tends to catch up and starts once again to overpower the stronger technology component.
Stock become continuously tighter.
This makes for a different situation. Short years will hold prices higher longer, as indicated in the analysis by Dr. Adams. But given either scenario, prices on the high side, staying longer and alternatively on the low side - staying longer, it is very likely that prices during the crop year will show spurts of quick rapid movement. Three weeks of dry weather this spring will send prices scurrying upwards. If it rains across the corn belt the next day all price strength will very likely be lost.