An invasion would require a massive and therefore easily detectable mobilization of Chinese forces, giving the United States some time to move forces to the region and try to interdict the assault. But a massive missile strike comes with little or no warning, and by the time U.S. forces arrived on the scene Taiwan's military would be rubble. Chinese military officials may gamble that an American president would not want to escalate a war with China with so little prospect of undoing the fait accompli on Taiwan. A recent RAND study notes that the Chinese historically have taken a different view of the use of force. Nor are the Chinese daunted by American military superiority.
Surprise is a critical factor in Chinese strategic thinking.
Clinton officials pray that the March 18 elections will produce a government in Taiwan willing to accommodate Beijing's demands. That is unlikely. The next Taiwanese president will probably maintain the status quo that Beijing considers unacceptable. In the absence of diplomatic or political solutions, the only way to avert a future Chinese attack on Taiwan is to deter it right now, and that may require some tough decisions. The Taiwanese are begging the Clinton administration to sell them four guided missile destroyers equipped with the Aegis radar system, which would give Taiwan early warning of an attack and significantly improve its ability to knock out incoming missiles.