In early January, I attended the American Economics Assn. Yet the more than 7,000 economists gathered in New Orleans were eager to grapple with far more quotidian topics, too, such as whether the U.S. is hurtling toward a recession. The answers, while laced with abstruse jargon and mathematical curlicues, echoed the overriding confusion among investors.
Truth is, the economic outlook is unusually murky right now.
Yes, the economy slowed at an alarming rate in recent months. And yes, the Federal Reserve's half-point cut in its benchmark interest rate will eventually do its bit to resuscitate an ailing economy. But the agreement stopped there. I still think we're in a slowdown, not a recession. One titan was Martin N. Baily, head of the White House Council of Economic Advisors in the twilight of President Clinton's Administration.