The peak harvest period usually extends from mid-March through mid to late April. Rain in the last week has not greatly hindered harvest progress because the areas of heaviest rain are not yet mature enough to combine. Reports at this writing indicate field losses have not been a serious concern. In some past years, a wet harvest season has been severe enough to slightly reduce total production and delay shipments to foreign customers. Wet weather in parts of Argentina's sunflower areas have delayed harvesting enough that field losses are becoming a concern.
Sunflower seed competes with soybeans in both meal and oil markets.
With this knowledge, soybean prices will be at least mildly sensitive to South American weather in the next several weeks. However, producers should recognize that forward contract or hedge sales for fall delivery amplify the exposure to production risk unless crop insurance is used. One type of insurance designed to complement forward pricing is Crop Revenue Coverage, which insures lost bushels at market replacement cost. This risk is illustrated with Figure 1, which shows the probability distribution of gross incomes for a soybean grower hedging new-crop soybeans in February, without crop insurance. Low incomes can be generated by low yields, low prices, or both.