The NDMC index is a blend of science and subjectivity where intensity categories are based on six key indicators and numerous supplementary indicators. The Palmer Drought Severity Index is used for assessing long-term meteorological conditions. Thanks to the heavy early November rain, the amount of acreage categorized as short or very short decreased dramatically when compared to early October. Given that Minnesota soils are now frozen, the condition of the soil moisture profile will change very little until late winter or early spring. However, for gauging locations that provide winter data, the U.S. Geological Survey indicates that most streams in the Red River basin are above the 90th percentile when compared to historical values for the date.
Stream flows in the remainder of the state are near average for the date.
Ice thickness on many Minnesota lakes is five to seven inches, and thickening rapidly. However, ice thickness often varies dramatically from lake to lake, or even bay to bay. Normal December precipitation ranges from just over one half inch in western Minnesota, to one and one quarter inches in the northeast. The December temperature outlook is also for near normal conditions statewide. Normal December high temperatures fall from the upper 20's early in the month to around 20 by month's end.