Supply driven markets may show large increases in commercial short positions reflecting processors and grain dealers selling futures to offset large cash purchases from producers. Markets driven largely by speculative activity show increases in net long or short open interest depending upon which overall market positions are taken. Speculative driven rallies without commercial support are unlikely to sustain themselves. Exaggerated swings in open interest showing up in the nonreportable category likewise bears watching. Small traders are seldom correct in their trading activities.
Small traders are also most likely to respond to market news after the fact.
To confirm any large export activity visit the USDA's FAS or Agribiz's site which links to the Weekly Export Sales Commitment Report which details all export sales and destinations. For additional tools to aid in analyzing the impact of the COT report, visit the commodity exchanges sites for detailed daily information on changes in commodity trading volume and open interest. This report, example shown below , lists both day and evening session daily volume and open interest for each commodity including give ups and cash exchanges. Exchanges are a transaction in which the buyer of a cash commodity transfers to the seller a corresponding amount of long futures contracts, or receives from the seller a corresponding amount of short futures, at a price mutually agreed upon. In this way the opposite hedges in futures of both parties are closed out simultaneously.