Yet, it remains in many respects a fragile economy with great disparities between various regions and sectors. Even if we assume for the moment that China's economy continues to grow at current world-beating rates for the next thirty years and it surpasses the United States and Japan in terms of aggregate GDP, that would still leave China with only a small fraction of the per capita GDP of developed countries. China's economy will strain to meet the rising demands of a population already more than 1.2 billion and projected to grow to about 1.6 billion by the middle of the next century. My final comment about China's intent and capabilities is to note that Beijing's core objective for the past twenty years has been integration into, not confrontation with, emerging global systems. China's need for access to global trade and capital markets will be as great 100 years from now as it is today.
Some analysts dismiss China's opening up as a tactical expedient masking a much darker strategy.
Yet, it is difficult to imagine how a country could follow a tactical course with utter consistency for two decades and give no hint that its strategic objectives in fact lay in the opposite direction. If China were truly a wolf in sheep's clothing, one could reasonably expect that the fleece should have become threadbare and transparent by now. The answer to this question will certainly be a factor in the architecture of Sino-U.S. relations. Americans will continue to view the treatment of citizens by their governments and the degree to which citizens can participate in political processes as litmus tests for good relations, be it with China, or other countries. However, for most people in China today, the gradual transformation of the country's political institutions has already led to an unprecedented opening up of new choices and freedoms in the conduct of their daily lives.