Mathematical Population Studies, Vol. 6, No. 1, 1996. This study examines the transition of a population to stability following a shift to a new fixed set of vital rates. Specifically, the authors develop a simple discrete population model and use it to derive an explicit solution for the birth trajectory. The new vital rates interact with the population's initial age composition and generate birth waves whose amplitude and attenuation depend on the ratio of ultimate to initial growth and on the new pattern of stable net maternity. A greater change in growth and a later stable net maternity pattern produce larger fluctuations in the number of births.
Stabilization begins at the youngest ages and proceeds upward.
Sixty years after the shift, the birth waves have largely disappeared and the proportion under age 15 approximates the stable level implied by the new rates. Those patterns are manifest in the stabilization of both observed and Coale-Demeny model stable populations. This volume contains a selection of articles, some of which have been previously published, on the Bachue models, which were developed by the International Labour Organization during the 1970s and 1980s as a tool for integrating demographic variables into the development planning process in developing countries. These models were developed to study the relationships between population growth and spatial distribution in the context of socioeconomic development, employment growth, income distribution, and poverty. The reasons for abandoning efforts to build development models along these lines are also discussed.