It's going to be decided by one possession. USC was probably feeling lucky in its win over Boston College. The Eagles didn't go for a 3-pointer but went for a 2 when they trailed by three on the last possession. Stanford did the same when it got past St. Joseph's in the second round. Surviving that one near-miss is almost a necessity to get to the Final Four, let alone win the national title.
Timing is everything.
For us last year, it was against Central Connecticut. We didn't play well, but we still won. Maryland had that game against George Mason. The Terps survived a close call and are a better team for experiencing that. UNLV was the best example in 1991 when the Runnin' Rebels didn't have a close game until the national semifinal against Duke.