Then OPEC adjusted production, creating a shortage. Prices of crude oil tripled, but they did it in an orderly fashion. Silver is quite different than crude oil. There was no enormous short position, or leasing in crude oil, like there is in silver, so crude oil prices could react orderly. Silver will not react to the current shortage with an orderly price rise.
Supplies are far too tight compared to current and coming demand.
That's why you can't wait for a price signal to confirm the shortage. The initial silver price surge will likely be so severe it will be impossible to accumulate inventory at reasonable prices. That's because the silver market is manipulated. You must look for other signals to buy silver. You will not get a clearer signal than the US Government announcing that for the first time in history, they will be completely out of silver, and can only be a buyer.