The situation for plutonium in Japan relative to wind power is about as favorable as it can be since Japan has a limited land area on which wind power development is possible. The current plutonium program calls for initiating MOX use in 2 reactors in 1999 and 16 to 18 reactors in the year 2010. Specifically, we found that a little more than 12,000 megawatts of wind capacity installed over the next ten years could generate as much electricity as Japanese power companies expect to generate by using MOX fuel. Moreover, we found that wind electricity can replace MOX fuel use and save money - on the order of hundreds of millions to a couple of billion dollars. The wind targets are ambitious for Japan, which does not have a mature wind industry comparable to Europe's, but they are nonetheless achievable.
Wind energy is also more favorable than plutonium as a fuel for the long-term.
Our estimates of the electricity cost for breeder reactors is 11 per kilowatt-hour, possibly more. In comparison, offshore wind energy costs are projected to be less than 6 per kWh based on optimizing current technology for offshore conditions. Furthermore, there has been a clear trend toward downward costs for wind energy, while no such trend exists for breeder reactor technology. Even with added costs that may be necessary to accommodate the intermittent nature of the wind, such as energy storage or use of hydrogen as a fuel, the wind energy option is economically more attractive. Wind energy development does need to proceed carefully.