Nor is it to find the most probable future and bet the house on it. Rather, it is to make decisions that will be suitable for all plausible futures. That is why the challenge is to develop a small set of distinct scenarios covering the main areas of uncertainty-and in so doing define direction without confining it. Thinking the unthinkable. A scenario is an internally consistent view of the future.
Scenario analysis is the process of generating and analyzing a small set of scenarios.
This exercise stretches mental models, enhancing perception of events as part of a pattern, and leads to better thinking about the future. Uncovering the focal issue. If not, the focal issue should be what keeps one awake at night. Making out key factors. Once the focal issue has been decided on, the next step is to identify the key factors in one's environment.