Even a recession starting in a few months would not hurt 1998 revenues much, though it would in 1999. Mr. Clinton's budget officials have not yet joined the gladsome budget-forecasting crowd. They may fret this would encourage politicians on Capitol Hill to freely cut taxes or spend the surplus. In fact, Washington has gone into a deep freeze on the budget. Clinton's call for using any surplus to bail out Social Security makes it hard for Republicans in Congress to do much more than symbolic tax cuts.
Some couples pay more when married than as two separate individuals.
Clinton also proposed using any revenues from a tobacco settlement and some loophole-closing measures to increase programs helping college students, working mothers, and other important voting blocs. The Republicans will likely say these are too expensive. Most observers expect a compromise - small tax cuts and a bit of new spending, such as on highways. Passage would then require an unlikely 60 Senate votes. And any spending and tax bills that do pass will take time to have their full impact - maybe by 2000.