Executive Summary South Africa is certain to experience severe consequences arising from its AIDS epidemic. Over 3.5 million people are currently estimated to be HIV infected, and this number is projected to more than double over the next decade - unless major behavioral changes are adequately promoted and realized.
Young women are particularly vulnerable.
These data further emphasize the need for priority prevention programmes for young people and women. This figure will rise to more than 1.95 million in 2010. Models of providing support for these vulnerable children and their communities urgently need to be explored because traditional coping mechanisms are likely to break down. The sharpest economic effect of the South African epidemic will probably be on wealth distribution rather than on the size of the economy as a whole. In the field of human and social development, however, the consequences are expected to be much more profound.