The following perspective is that of the researcher named above and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Urban Institute, its officers, trustees, or sponsors. In his latest economic perspective column, Tax Notes economic consultant Gene Steuerle points out stumbling blocks along the way to a final budget deal likely to be encountered by budget negotiators. Gene Steuerle is a senior fellow at the Urban Institute and an economic consultant to Tax Notes. To Go Looking simply at the amount of deficit reduction needed by the year 2002, this should be an easy budget deal to pull off. The 1997 deal will be among the smaller of them.
Tax cuts are available to sweeten the pie.
Both political parties are committed to the deal, partly to fulfill past campaign promises, and partly to avoid being tainted as obstacles to progress. All these factors make it extremely likely that there will be a final deal, but they do not mitigate the difficulty in getting there. Simply put, the deal is clearly overcommitted. Politicians who promise more than they can deliver represent only the first, and least unexpected, of the problems. But cutting back on the promises in some ways is the easy part of the battle.