In that same time frame, the cycle time for U.S. manufacturers is forecast to fall from 48 months to 24 months. Clearly, the Japanese advantage has been reduced and is forecast to be reduced further in the future. This may allow U.S. manufacturers to bring out vehicles that are timely, and meet customer expectations to a much greater degree than in the past. European manufacturers are close to U.S manufacturers today, but are forecast to have less improvement through 2007. When the clock starts on cycle-timing is certainly an issue, as noted in the panelists comments.
Vehicle manufacturers have different requirements for starting the clock.
In general, management approval of the clay model and business case, including financial, engineering and manufacturing analysis and approval of the product content, determines the start of the process. Certainly there are differences in detail in this area, even within the same company. The greatest significance in the results of this question may not be that current cycle time is 36 months and is forecast to be 24 months by 2007, but rather the consensus that cycle time has been reduced by about 25 percent since 1992 and is forecast to be reduced another 30 percent by 2007. Further, the consensus is that the Japanese have an advantage in cycle timing and are forecast to retain that advantage, although to a lesser degree through 2007. Another consideration is that, when pressed, a manufacturer may be able to reduce lead time considerably.