This leading index anticipates changes in the growth rate of a nonferrous metals price index of prices for primary aluminum, copper, lead, and zinc. The Metal Industry Indicators aids decision and policy makers concerned with metals activity Decision and policy makers in mining, manufacturing, recycling, finance, government, and academia use the Metal Industry Indicators to determine where the metal industries are in the business cycle. The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and a major mutual fund use the Metal Industry Indicators to analyze the effects of the business cycle on steel industry production and profitability. Several Wall Street firms use the Metal Industry Indicators to track the trend of metal prices, and the purchasing departments of capital goods producers use it to make decisions about purchasing metals. Indexes published in the Metal Industry Indicators are time-sensitive, so the report is made available, electronically and by mail, to customers worldwide by the end of each month.
Shaded areas are economic recessions.
Note that leading index highs and lows occur before highs and lows of the coincident indexes, which measure current economic activity. The indexes give clues regarding the present and near-term future growth of the U.S. metals industry. The effects of the last three recessions on the primary metals industry vary greatly. The late 1970's and early 1980's were periods of high inflation, which increased industry costs. Interest rates rose dramatically.