Uncertainty is inherent to the risk assessment process.
Imperfect understanding of human and environmental systems combined with incomplete or sparse data and vaguely specified regulatory or decision criteria introduce inaccuracies and imprecision to risk estimation and risk management. The purpose of this intensive short course is to demonstrate how uncertainty can be analyzed and exploited to refine the risk assessment process and improve risk management and risk-based decision making. The course includes a comprehensive presentation of the nature and source of uncertainties commonly encountered in risk assessments. Methods for quantitatively characterizing and propagating these sources of inaccuracy and imprecision are examined through lectures, software demonstrations, and class participation. Students are provided the opportunity for hands-on experience in case study assessments that address both human health and ecological risks.