But no one with any sense has concluded that technology doesn't matter. I don't see anybody in the Old Economy dismissing it. Adding efficiencies and saving costs, such as automating the supply chain, are just part of a process that in many ways is just getting started. Then it's a matter of figuring out what you do well and using the Net to make it particularly strong. For UPS, said Kelly, the next wave is about getting products and information to individual customers anywhere, any time and any way they want.
Traditional companies have some breathing room to make the transition, no doubt.
They also have the cash, a real advantage now that the capital markets are no longer throwing money at every computer science student or MBA with an interesting idea but no business plan. That doesn't mean the old-line businesses have it made. It particularly doesn't mean that there's no room for new entrants in the Fortune 500, says Joe Schoendorf, a venture capitalist at Palo Alto, Calif.-based Accel Partners. Entrepreneurs are still thinking up great new companies in the Internet arena, he says, and some of them will be huge. It's the same this year.