All of the expansion in area is in the South. Long grain area is estimated at more than 2.5 million acres, up 10 percent from 1997 and the largest on record. The medium grain area is projected to drop more than 9 percent to 689,000 acres, with the decline evenly split between the South and California. Short grain plantings are projected to rise 22 percent to 22,000 acres. Based on farmer surveys conducted in early September, the national average yield is forecast at 5,685 pounds per acre, down from 5,896 pounds a year earlier and the record 6,121 pounds in 1996.
Several factors are behind the decline.
Late planted rice typically has more disease, insect, and weed problems than earlier planted rice. Finally, a shift in total area from the high- yielding California rice to the lower yielding southern rice reduced average yields. Yield projections are updated monthly during the harvest season with final estimates reported in January. While monthly cash prices have generally declined since late 1997, they have nonetheless remained high. World consumption is projected at 387.1 tons, a record and up nearly 1 percent.