It will not be an even soft landing. Likewise, the consensus estimate for earnings growth in next year's first quarter has dropped from 14.2 percent on Oct. 1 to 10.9 percent. These are still healthy rates historically, but may not be enough to justify still-heady stock valuations in many areas. As well, falling prices for long-distance phone service have hurt the phone companies, he added. Still, data indicate high-tech and telecommunications sectors are still growing in output, but at a slower rate, he said.
Some industries already are in recession.
The Fed tightening, and the subsequent slowing of the economy, is expected to dampen consumer spending, and analysts have trimmed earnings estimates for consumer-oriented firms for this quarter, according to First Call. In the transportation sector, higher oil prices and speculation about further labor strife have sent estimates downward for airline companies this year, Kalinowski noted. Within the gloom have been a few bright spots, where optimism about prospects within a sector is increasing, but they are few. Although the dramatic growth in oil prices has eased, analysts have grown more bullish on energy companies, at least in the short run. And estimates for electric and gas utilities, and for health-care companies, have stayed put for this quarter.