However, if the storms track too close to Hawaii, the waves arrive with some pretty nasty weather, says Lukas. High pressure acts as a buffer to keep the storms from getting too close, Lukas explains. Then local surfers get good, light trade winds along with big swells and sunny skies, perfect conditions. But if the high pressure vanishes, the storms can sweep down on top of Hawaii, as they did during the '82-'83 ENSO that featured big waves and bad storms. No one wants to remember that, however.
Surfers are content to savor the recent south swell and anticipate more to come.
Don't look too far ahead, warns Lukas. The surf is always worse on the South Shore the year after El Nino. And don't even ask about El Nino's frigid sister, La Nina, an extreme cold-weather event. That's another story.