It starts from a low base, and China is nowhere near matching American capabilities. Regardless of Chinese intentions, this is inevitably a strategic problem for us. China's new weaponry will be sufficient in the near term to raise the risks and inhibitions to an American President who contemplates intervening in a future crisis in the Taiwan Strait or South China Sea. China's economic prospects , however, are now more complicated than previously thought. China's is already the world's second-largest economy, and its market reforms promise a successful future.
Unemployment is already high.
The economic slowdown will also play into China's most serious problem, which is its internal political vulnerability . Political ferment, in the form of officials and intellectuals calling for democratization, is building in 1998, probably beyond the intentions of the reformist leadership of Zhu Rongji. The possibility of miscalculation or political crisis is growing. Thus, the paradox of a China that is difficult internationally yet vulnerable internally. The priorities of U.S. policy seem to be skewed.