American elections are much more complicated than simple economics or the incumbent's approval ratings. There have been elections in which slavery, wars, women's suffrage, scandal and prohibition were central issues. The current presidential polls are most interesting. Bush and Gore are fairly close to each other in most issue categories, including education, economics, environment, guns, health care, abortion and so on. And in the election pairing, Bush is ahead of Gore by about 5 percentage points.
Swing voters have several ways to look at a presidential election.
Or they can assess what they are displeased with, and make a choice about which candidate or party might best help remedy that situation. These days, many Americans, rightly or wrongly, fear that we are in a moral swamp. It is not news that some academics purvey nutsy theories. They have tenure. But journalists are less protected.