If we've been offered a lesson this past decade, it is that it would be dangerous to overestimate our own influence as an external actor. It would be equally perilous for us to underestimate the challenges of such radical transitions. The challenges start in Serbia proper. When he leaves, Serbia will be on the move again. Alas, it was not just Mr. Milosevic who terrorized the Balkans and drove Serbia into isolation and despair.
Serb wounds are largely self-inflicted.
Many of them remain today in the police, the army, and other institutions. Mr. Milosevic's Socialist Party is still the largest in parliament. It remains entrenched in many sectors of society, even if its leader can be forced to leave the country or to retire from politics. Mr. Kostunica, an unabashed nationalist, has rejected the idea of turning Mr. Milosevic over to the tribunal in The Hague. Nor has he shown any interest in bringing to justice Radovan Karadzic, the Bosnian Serb leader, or Ratko Mladic, the former commander of the Bosnian Serb army.