Precipitation guidance is generally good as far as shape of the precipitation area but is low on the amount. Nest2 is very good at depicting orographic induced precipitation, however remains light on convective or stratiform types. A cold bias exists over Europe with the least being at tau 12 at the surface and the greatest at tau 48 at 250 mb. A warm bias exists on the African continent, but is less than the European cold bias. This feature may or may not exist.
Verification is a problem.
Nest2 develops wind maximums in the Gulf Of Oman and the Strait of Hormuz during the southwest monsoon. SSMI imagery and coastal reports indicate light and variable winds. Nest2 has a problem handling the Shamal by underestimating winds by 5 to 10 kts. It also tends to decrease wind velocities approximately 6 - 12 hours early. During periods of weak pressure gradients over the Arabian Gulf, Nest2 does not handle the surface flow well, i.e. sea and land breezes.