At last week's meeting of the American Geophysical Union in San Francisco, scientists lamented the loss of the subs at a time of increasing evidence of a big polar thaw. Since the late 1980s, the ice atop the Arctic Ocean has thinned by about a foot, to around 6.5 feet thick. In places, the front of the permanent ice has retreated 100 miles north. A current of saltier, warmer Atlantic Ocean water that extends into the Arctic, mainly from the Barents Sea, has expanded dramatically, accelerating ice breakup. The polar atmosphere is warmer, too, with this year likely to be the warmest in the last 1,200 years.
Scientists see no end soon to the rising temperatures.
Most scientists agree that they need about 10 more years of continuous monitoring to decide for sure. Others are wondering if nonnuclear robot subs can take up the slack. James Baker, head of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, says talks are underway with the Russians to use one of their nuclear subs, but immense political and technical barriers could scuttle that effort. If snow-covered polar ice, one of the most reflective substances on Earth, is replaced by dark, open ocean, the planet's thermostat could really go out of whack. Storm patterns and ocean circulation could drastically change, particularly in the North Atlantic.