These numbers, however, have been hotly debated and subsequent research has disagreed with these figures, said Moffitt. T hree new studies have come to close consensus on the contribution of the unemployment rate to the decline in welfare cases between 1993 and 1996, according to Moffitt. The studies note that the unemployment rate during this period can explain 48 percent, or about one-half, of the AFDC caseload decline. There was less agreement between these studies on the impact of state waivers. The midpoint range, however, was that state waivers accounted for 15 percent of the AFDC caseload decline.
T here are still many unresolved issues.
For instance, Moffitt noted that there are questions regarding the cyclicality of welfare cases to the state of the U.S. economy and business cycle. The number of welfare cases has been getting more sensitive to the business cycle over time. The 1996 Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act may reduce the sensitivity of the number of welfare cases to cycles of the U.S. economy, he concluded. He attributed this decline in part to the strong United States economy. D anziger argued that far too much attention is paid to the decreasing number of cases, without fully understanding how the recipients are faring.