So, we have to look more broadly than conventional economic analysis in order to understand the social and economic upheaval surrounding us. We have to develop an overarching perspective that throws light on historical trends. PART A of Calling the 'Price Drop' seeks to do just this by offering an economic interpretation of critical events over the last 200 years,and PART B validates it with recent Australian data. Cycles First, cycles of recurrent boom and bust do exist, but they need not. Nicolai Kondratieff first sketched his thoughtful and important theory of long wave economic cycles in The World Economy and Its Condition During and After the War in 1922.
Stirring events are evident at the depression at the bottom of each cycle.
Kondratieff suggested that spurts in reinvestment of fixed capital were connected with economic upswings, but he had no complete theory to explain the phenomena of long waves. Following ideas of the US land economist Homer Hoyt, Harrison's studies confirmed that the land market peaks at regular eighteen year intervals. They show that economic decline invariably follows these peaks. Recessionary Phase 3. False Boom Phase 4.