Also, there were about 14 percent fewer reports of assault and battery in Elgin compared with 1998, while the rest of the area recorded a 4 percent drop. Overall, Elgin had a 22 percent drop in reported crime. Davis credits the decline to increased patrols, more targeted policing and better use of crime analysis to spot trends and cut off crime patterns before they get out of hand. Property crimes fell in the northwest suburbs last year, and the drop represents an about-face from just a year earlier. All four categories were down in 1999, most notably burglary, which dropped an impressive 21.5 percent from 1998.
Some experts warn, however, that the numbers tell an incomplete story.
By definition, the tally does not include unreported crimes. Some victims are unwilling to come forward, perhaps out of reluctance to contend with the justice system bureaucracy, or a belief that police will be unable to solve the crime, or even the desire to spare themselves embarrassment. In particular, experts say sexual assault is widely underreported. In areas with small numbers of reports, even a minor change can translate into a misleading jump or decline when expressed as a percentage. Perhaps Inverness, where crime is barely detectable, is most telling of how misleading the numbers can be.