The civilian government of President Kim Young Sam came to power believing its military predecessors had manufactured tensions with the North to prop up their own misrule. Kim's ministers spoke in rosy tones about how they would vanquish ideology and unite the two countries. Kim has shelved plans to encourage investment in the North, toughened the South's military stance and made sure there were no gaps between Seoul and Washington for the North to exploit. Last week he traveled to Tokyo and Beijing to seek allies against Pyongyang's intransigence. The West is now waiting to see whether Pyongyang backs down.
Some analysts are sure the end of the diplomatic road has already been reached.
They argue that the regime and especially its unproved heir apparent, Kim Jong Il, view an atomic program as the trump card of their credibility and will not forgo it for anything. Other experts think Pyongyang might eventually give up its nuclear dream, but only in exchange for massive economic aid, a guarantee of Western support for Kim Jong Il's succession and a withdrawal of U.S. troops from the South - concessions neither Seoul nor Washington will accept. The task for Clinton is to keep prodding and cajoling Pyongyang down that path without devoting so much attention to the problem that he raises the value of the North's nuclear card even higher. Getting off track with North Korea could cause a war. Time Inc. All rights reserved.