He had thrashed through year-old papers and magazines, surfed the Internet, to see what 30 of the leading financial and economics experts had predicted for 1998. He separated out the chaff and left only three predictions all 30 agreed on - a consensus if ever there was one. Next the introduction of the euro would have to be postponed. Well the American stock market at the turn of this year was at a record high. The euro is off and running.
Unemployment remains throughout the country very close to a record low.
Inflation is barely measurably higher. Certainly that astounding event should serve as an object lesson to all experts whether historians, journalists or politicians. I knew, at a respectful distance, two or three of them. They were, for the whole of their careers when we followed them for 40 years or more, very learned, very serious, persuasive and dead wrong. In the same article they would render yet another ringing forecast of things to come which would need to be revised after the next Politburo shake up.