The study also examines the relationship between AFDC caseloads and the political party affiliation of the Governor and the majority party of the state House and Senate. A regression using state panel data with control variables does a poor job of predicting this underlying trend toward higher caseloads, although the variables included in the model appear to be important determinants of the change in caseloads from year to year within the states. However, the AFDC caseload changes are relatively well explained by the variables in this model. Blank also found that economic conditions have a significant effect on caseloads. This is particularly true for the AFDC program, where changes in unemployment produce caseload changes of 15 to 20 percent.
Wage levels are also important to both programs.
The study found that demographic variables appear to have a mixed effect on caseloads. State political affiliations have mattered over the past two decades for the AFDC program. States with Republican governors have experienced lower caseloads. The distinction between current caseload recipients and first-time recipients is crucial in estimating how many families are likely to be affected by time limits. Families first beginning to receive benefits typically have much shorter welfare experiences than those who are currently receiving benefits.