There is absolutely no evidence that sex offenders are particularly likely to reoffend. In fact, even the Home Office draft report itself recognises that the reconviction rate for sex criminals is lower than for other types of crime. Because there are no facts to support the recidivism myth it has to base itself on the 'hidden crime' argument, that a vast number of sex offenders reoffend but are not caught. This argument is always trotted out to support panics about crime, primarily because it is impossible to falsify. The issue of child abuse arouses deep-seated fears.
Sex offenders seem to be from another planet altogether.
The sorry truth is that the few people who do commit sex offences are just ordinary people who err in a moment of depravity. Nothing is gained by pretending that 'paedophilia' is some kind of medical condition. On the contrary, by playing along with the idea that people cannot prevent themselves from abusing children, it becomes impossible to condemn the act when it does happen. The importance of Canter and Kirby's research and more broadly the importance of upholding the principle of justice that a punishment can be spent is that it recognises that people can and do change, that we can learn from our mistakes. This is a fundamental part of what makes us human.