The 1998 U.S. wheat crop is forecast at 2.557 billion bushels, slightly above 1997's crop of 2.527 billion bushels. The 1998-99 U.S. wheat carryover is projected to increase by 14.5 percent, or about 105 million bushels. Makus said the projected U.S. wheat carryover of 827 million bushels is close to the largest carryover of the decade. Only the 1990-91 carryover of 868.1 million bushels would be bigger. Makus said U.S. white wheat production dropped to 298 million bushels in 1998, well below the previous two years, but stocks of other classes of wheat continued to hold white wheat prices down.
White wheat is the predominate kind grown in Washington.
It costs Northwest farmers 35 cents to 50 cents a bushel to deliver their wheat to Portland. The world has demonstrated its capacity for increasing grain production when prices are strong and weather cooperates. Relatively large grain stocks, especially for the United States, suggest production decreases will need to be substantial for a major market recovery. Makus sees some good news in the drop in 1998-1999 world ending stocks of wheat. They are forecast to be about 123 million metric tons.