Although many widely publicized incidents have been staged or overblown, the dangers of even a single successful diversion are too great to ignore. Security at some stockpiles is being upgraded, but unsettled economic and political conditions are undermining morale. Drugs added a more insidious dimension to the problem during the 1970s and 1980s, but trade in uranium and plutonium during the past five years has given smuggling unprecedented relevance to international security. Yet there is considerable controversy over the threat nuclear smuggling poses.
Some analysts dismiss it as a minor nuisance.
Not only has very little material apparently changed hands, they argue, but, with a few exceptions, most of it has not even been close to weapons grade. None of the radioactive contraband that has been confiscated by Western authorities has been traced unequivocally to weapons stockpiles. Some of the plutonium that smugglers try to peddle comes from smoke detectors. In addition to these amateur smugglers, there are many scam artists who sell stable elements that have been rendered temporarily radioactive by exposing them to radiation or who obtain large advances based on minute samples. The Danger Is Real Based on the bumbling nature of most of the smuggling plots uncovered so far, some well-informed observers have suggested that, in Germany at least, the only buyers are journalists, undercover police and intelligence agents.