The importance of these phenomena in terms of their frequency of occurrence and impacts is immediately evident. We have developed a classification system to describe the transition process for individual storms in terms of their environmental interactions and post-transition intensity. This work seeks to explain how the storm structure is changed. This understanding progresses us toward better forecast potential. Since the transition process typically involves an increase in the area covered by both the strong winds and rainfall in the tropical storm, this increases the area of potentially damaging weather effects.
Weaker storms are more likely to strengthen after transition.
Due to new data sources and computer technologies, we are well positioned to advance understanding and improve forecasts of transition. We have begun this work. Our research has shown that these storms are a significant weather phenomena and, in parts of the USA in particular, occur with similar frequency to severe winter storms. Their strong wind and heavy rainfall signatures are much broader than those from a tropical cyclone and their peak winds are of similar magnitudes in the majority of cases. Hence, they have the potential to affect much larger communities.