No one prays for surf more fervently than Randy Rarick, chairman of the Triple Crown of Surfing. It's only mid-summer, and incredibly, Rarick already has new sponsors and more money to dangle before the international field of surf stars for the winter event. The best thing about ENSO is that it sends surf to Hawaii from all corners of the Pacific. Storms in the southern hemisphere form in a favorable area to create big summer swells, such as this weekend's welcome dose of waves, says oceanographer Pat Caldwell. Although hurricane season in the eastern Pacific has been slow so far, the eastward-migrating pool of warm water creates perfect conditions for hurricanes in late summer and fall, says Collins.
Warm water keeps storms alive longer and increases their intensity, sending good surf to Hawaii.
Unfortunately, cyclones that would have spun up around Ponape, then turned into typhoons and nailed Guam, form closer to Hawaii as hurricanes during ENSO, says Lukas. And it can steer them right toward Hawaii, with a potential for massive damage, says Collins. And there's more. During the winter, when frigid arctic air masses start sweeping down, they hit that warm ENSO water and boom, combustible weather. The drastic temperature differences and moisture in the air create intense storms that send giant waves to Hawaii.