As a result, Sombilla expects Philippine rice imports to double this year. Meanwhile, no one is sure when the dry weather will end. To prepare for future El Ni os, the country should definitely renovate its irrigation systems to improve their efficiency, construct more dams, and invest in tube well irrigation, said Gurdev S. Khush, an IRRI rice breeder and winner of the 1996 World Food Prize. Developing rice varieties with drought tolerance should be a long-term project. Despite its great potential, El Ni o forecasting is still new.
Weather models are unable to predict major temperature swings associated with the phenomenon.
Honing forecasts to specific countries is also tough, scientists say, particularly where weather patterns are more complex, as in Kenya. Early last year, Kenyan meteorologists predicted El Ni o would bring drought. Although they soon revised their forecasts, they were ill prepared for the heavy rains that have displaced villages, washed away roads, and destroyed crops. This drop in production will result in higher prices for consumers across Kenya. Although relief activities are planned to help the poorest, large-scale relief will not be possible until roads closed by the heavy rains are open again.