Crisis jump-started reforms in 1986. The vagaries of doing business in what was supposed to be Asia's next tiger economy sent more than a few impatient expatriates jetting home to headquarters. So far that has not happened. The leadership continues to balance reformers with throwbacks, and the ruling troika of president, party general secretary and prime minister installed last year once again reflected that thinking.
Trouble is, Vietnam can no longer afford to take two steps forward and one step back.
For starters, there is Asia's financial crisis. Inflation is another factor. Then there are the political rumblings. Dissatisfaction with party policies is brewing among the citizenry. In the northern coastal province of Thai Binh, traditionally a cradle of Communist Party support, peasants tired of venal local apparatchiks took several hostage.