The only thing that was different about the prairie in 1994 was water. There was no significant increase in projects or programs that might account for the increased duck production that occurred then and in subsequent wet years. Seymour wonders what would have happened had the drought continued into 1994, '95, and '96. This is anything but an exact science. I've studied identifiable black ducks and can tell you the older hens are far more successful at raising young than are first-time breeders.
Survival skills improve as the ducks get older.
Nobody can say hunting is not impacting the age structure of the population. That's one reason I believe stockpiling would work. Seymour also says the public should be leery of claims that 1999's fall flight will be the largest of the century. We've changed the way we estimate the fall flight several times without making any adjustments to the index. I don't know how anyone could say we have more ducks this fall than we did in 1955 or in the 1960s.