For instance, Santa Barbara will add 150,000-220,000 by 2030 under these projections. Central Valley cities such as Bakersfield and Fresno have relied upon sprawl to accommodate their huge population jumps. Densification is the ultimate goal of smart growth advocates, who assume continued American population growth. But densification has its limits. A new study by Leon Kolankiewicz and Roy Beck of Numbersusa, a Washington, D.C., organization, disaggregates the contribution of these two forces.
Sprawl can and does occur where only one force increases.
Yet these cities experienced an average of 26 percent more sprawl due to increased per capita land consumption. Population growth can co-exist with decreasing per capita land consumption, i.e., increasing density. This described nearly all California's large cities. Los Angeles, the country's most densely populated urbanized area in 1990, had a mere 0.11 acre per resident, down 8 percent from 1970. But to sop up 3.1 million or 36 percent more residents Los Angeles's urbanized area expanded 25 percent.