Taiwan, by contrast, has been a political football, ceded to the Japanese in 1895 and recovered in 1945 by Chiang Kai-shek, who fled to the island with his army after his defeat by the Communists in 1949. Now a free, democratic state, Taiwan is tired of irredentist claims. The State Department has just reported a deterioration of human-rights policies in China last year, manifested among other things in persecution of the Falun Dafa ethical movement. It also suggested some weakening of the rule of law in Hong Kong since the 1997 handover. Foreign investment in China is falling sharply.
Social unrest is a growing worry for the Communist leadership.
Mr. Clinton said last week that he hoped Congress wouldn't use the China-Taiwan tensions as a reason to vote against a grant of permanent normal trade status to China. So now, in the president's view, it's the Republicans causing all the trouble, not a Chinese threat to blow a small, democratic country out of the sea. That would promote the more positive forces in the Chinese polity, the many Chinese who would like to have a free, democratic society and market economy, just like Taiwan. Congress has been put in a difficult position by presidential weakness. It has been issued a direct challenge by the Chinese military as the Senate considers a bill to enhance Taiwan's security.