Here is direct access to random walk analyses on the Internet that are quite good. The first one is the Alta Vista search for info. The second is one of the sites that contains the info. My position then and now is that only a handful of managers can best the averages consistently and the vast majority of the managers cannot, repeat cannot, best the averages. Some guessers are better than others but everybody is guessing.
Some guesses are highly educated guesses and some are stupid guesses but they are all guesses.
In 50 years on Wall Street I heard about, saw, tested, analyzed and read about market forecasting systems. Inc. All Rights Reserved . The measurement of performance is almost ludicrous. Or vice versa. I know of no system available to the public which has a good track record of forecasting market downturns in advance of the downturn.