I'm skeptical, but I'm not inflexible. So I am moderating my outlook for the severity of the recession. The following table shows the five possible economic consequences of Y2K along with my subjective probability. Business as usual. Only a few problems, which will be fixed rapidly.
Stock market moves much higher.
Business as usual within a few weeks. Stock market moves higher. Flight to quality. Social and political upheaval. This would depress stock prices, which would depress consumer confidence and spending, thus exacerbating the Y2K recession effects attributable to supply disruptions.