As states and the federal government deregulate power companies, breaking century-old monopolies on electricity generation and sales, these utilities will no longer service captive customers at fixed rates. Opening up electrical service to market forces may lower its cost. But those savings may come at the price of more polluted air, according to lecturer on public policy Henry Lee '68, M.P.A. '74, director of the Environmental and Natural Resource Program at the Kennedy School's Center for Science and International Affairs. Lee analyzes the problem in classic terms of supply and demand. Under competition, he predicts, as prices and market barriers fall, demand for power will rise.
Sulfur dioxide leads to acid rain, which damages water, forests, and human habitats.
Even a 3 percent annual increase in generating capacity would lead by the year 2000 to an 11 percent overall increase in sulfur dioxide emissions, and a 24.6 percent increase in emissions of nitrogen oxides, Lee concludes. Moreover, emissions of carbon dioxide would rise by 43 million tons. That equals 15 percent of the Clinton administration's CO 2 reduction target for the year 2000, which aims to cut back the growth of CO 2 emissions by 287 million tons. Though these emissions may originate in the Midwest, the problems they cause are not just regional. Prevailing winds flow from west to east across the United States, a meteorological reality that converts pollution generated in the Midwest into acid rain and ozone drifting over the Northeast.