But that will not satisfy LTTE supremo Prabhakaran. He wants an independent Tamil nation, anything less will earn him the wrath of his own cadre. Even if he captures Jaffna, Prabhakaran will not be able to run it smoothly. Its economy is in tatters and donations from abroad alone will not help him salvage the situation. While people await Indian intervention, political observers ascribe India's cool reaction to Sri Lanka inviting Pakistan for an arms negotiation along with Russia, Britain, Iran, the Czech Republic, Israel and Singapore.
Speculation is rife in the Colombo press about the Indian intervention.
Five possibilities are being discussed. If Jaffna falls India will evacuate the remaining soldiers. Two, India is waiting for Jaffna's fall so that the situation will be more favourable to the Tamils. Three, if the ethnic war continues, India will extend logistical support to the Lankan army to block the Tigers' arms route. Four, India will neither interfere nor mediate because of pressure from MPs from Tamil Nadu.