By clarifying their views of the future and assessing strategy against their assumptions, an organization's leaders can see if their strategies are viable over the long term. Only over the long term can the organization exercise more influence over its environment than its environment commands over the organization. Even flawless execution can't produce success if the company brilliantly executes an obsolete strategy. Here are some principles in planning. Forecasting can use numbers or judgment.
Trend lines are fine, but so are scenarios.
If your organization has confidence in quantitative forecasts, use them. If your people are more comfortable with non-statistical forecasts, do them. Many people think of the future only one way. Planning, however, must be dynamic. Betting on one technology, for example, closes off other futures, some of them more likely.