The Texas wheat crop condition is still in terrible shape, with the Texas Agricultural Statistics Service rating the crop at 70 percent poor or very poor in its Feb. 13 Crop Progress Report. While it would appear that there is a possibility of rain this week, in general, conditions have remained dry and temperatures have been running above normal for the state. As the crop tries to break dormancy, it will need some moisture in a hurry, or conditions will erode even further.
Wheat is a resilient crop.
We seem to get concerned every spring about how much of the crop may fail, and we are usually amazed at how quickly the crop can recover once it gets rainfall. However, the drought this fall and winter has been severe enough that some of the crop either didn't sprout at all, or died after it sprouted. Aphid, green bug, and spider mite populations have plagued some of the crop that did get up and grow, and, given the low prices, many producers have opted not to spray because of the lack of economic incentive. Winter wheat conditions across much of the rest of the U.S., while poor, are not as bad as the Texas situation. As a result, there is still a chance for the crop to improve substantially if timely rains begin to show up over the next couple months.