The focus in determining the proper influence to apply is dependent on the contextual elements of the adversary, the predicted reaction of the adversary to the applied influence, and the predicted second order effects on the global system. These all must be predicted as accurately as possible using nonlinear techniques including the genius of intuition. The pinball machine is perhaps a good illustration of planning and applying appropriate and inappropriate influence on a system. In a pinball machine a steel ball is shot to the top of a ramp comprised of a matrix of bumpers, pads, rails, and other obstacles. As the ball rolls down the ramp it is influenced by Newtonian physics and the obstacles it comes into contact with.
Some obstacles take energy from the ball, some add energy.
The path the ball takes is the result of the influences upon it. A decision path of a notional leader is shown in figure 3.1 below. The ball contacts various obstacles that represent the various contextual elements within the adversary's system in its journey down the ramp. The will of the leadership is influenced by the contextual elements within the system. The inappropriate application of influence in this system would be influencing contextual elements that are not considered by the enemy leadership, adding or subtracting too much energy and deflecting the will away from the desired result, and creating problems equal to or greater than those we are attempting to resolve through second order effects on the global system.