The trade factor trend had been declining since the June quarter 1999, whereas its historical long-term trend has been declining since the December quarter 1996. The trend of United States GDP has been rising since the March quarter 1991. In the December quarter 2000, the trend continued to rise although at a decelerating rate, as it has over the past year. The long-term trend increased more strongly than the trend. In contrast, the historical long-term trend for secured housing finance commitments continued to rise in the December quarter 2000 although at a decelerating rate since the December quarter 1998.
Vacancies Note that the job vacancies series are referenced to the middle month of a quarter.
The trend in the number of job vacancies continued to rise strongly in November 2000 although at a decelerating rate since November 1999. Job vacancies made a negligible contribution to the change in the XCLI in the December quarter 2000. The XCLI uses the inverse of the difference between the trend and the historical long-term trend of the real interest rate, lagged four quarters. The trend of the real interest rate began to decline in the March quarter 2000 and continued in that direction in the September quarter 2000. The real interest rate is defined as the difference between nominal interest rates and the change in the domestic final demand chain price index.