Now that the Soviet Empire, the last of the great l9th century colonial powers, is collapsing, it's pretty clear the shape of things to come is going to differ radically from what we've gotten used to. This was serious business, on a scale meaningful to advanced countries. And in a shrinking world, it's not likely they'll confine their attention to the next door neighbor alone. Only the timing was in doubt. The USSR was always a Third World country with a First World military.
Socialist societies are largely incapable of the former, so war is a logical and likely alternative.
It's an excellent bet that dozens of these countries, many of which the average person hasn't even heard of, will try playing the kind of game Iraq is at the moment. The Soviets are still a military superpower, but that status isn't going to last one the component republics re-establish their independence. There was an excellent chance it all could have happened. Fortunately, the USSR suffered domestic collapse before it found a suitable military opening. And, although I don't think it was the best way to accomplish the objective, it would seem Reagan's gigantic defense build-up was an important element in both bankrupting the Soviets and keeping them at bay.