The goal is eventually to develop a model of the entire river in Missouri. Both the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and area floodplain farmers would benefit, as would environmentalists who are hopeful that the state will purchase parts of the floodplain and return them to wetlands that might serve as a natural flood-control mechanism. Someday the model may be able to test whether a series of wetlands throughout the floodplain or the network of levees installed by the Corps of Engineers is the preferred method for flood control, said Niebur. If we can develop very accurate models, we can produce a tool that can be very helpful in studying the effects of flooding, the effects of levees versus wetlands, and the environmental stability of the area. But you have to be extremely careful with computer modeling.
Solutions can be wrong even though at first glance they seem reasonable.
We're being cautious and testing very carefully because we don't want to misapply the model. Niebur said initial results from the model show that one area of the floodplain, Jameson Island, is rapidly eroding as the river turns around a tight curve. Without the levees in place there, the river is washing more and more of the land away. Niebur also reported that thick vegetation is returning to the previously barren floodplain at a surprising speed. New, rapidly growing willow saplings cover the wet lower areas, and cottonwood saplings plus grasses and forbs thrive in drier, sandy areas of the floodplain.