In this paper, we investigate risk of hedge funds and CTA s in light of managerial career concerns. Good performers in the first half of the year reduce the volatility of their portfolios, and poor performers increase volatility. The importance of relative rankings as opposed to the absolute ranking suggested by analysis of hedge fund and CTA manager contracts points to the importance of reputation costs. These costs are best thought of in the context of the career concerns of managers and the relative importance of fund termination. We analyze factors contributing to fund disappearance.
Survival depends on both absolute and relative performance.
Excess volatility can also lead to termination. Finally, other things equal, the younger a fund, the more likely it is to disappear from the sample. Particularly for young funds, a volatility strategy that increases the value of a performance fee option may lead to the premature death of that option through termination of the fund. The finding that hedge fund and CTA volatility is conditional upon past performance has implications for investors, lenders and regulators. An important result of our finding is that variance strategy depends upon relative rather than absolute performance evaluation.