The forecast skill of the model has been evaluated, as shown in Fig. 15-1 of the December 1994 issue of this Bulletin. It was demonstrated that the tropical Pacific SSTA can be forecast fairly well up to 9 months lead, especially in the eastern portion of the basin. The forecasts show below normal SSTs over the eastern part of the equatorial Pacific. A magnitude of -1EC is indicated in 3 month lead forecasts.
Subsequent changes are in the positive direction.
This implies that the Nino 3 region will become closer to normal and the Nino 4 region slightly above normal for boreal winter 1996-97. Singular spectrum analysis in nonlinear dynamics, with applications to paleoclimatic time series. A new multidimensional time series forecasting method based on the EOF iteration scheme. Light shading denotes anomalies of 0.5EC to 1.0EC in amplitude, dark shading 1.0EC and higher. Observed time series are indicated by the solid line, and forecasts by dots.