But, in refusing to institute a rational policy, we are losing precious time for a successful transition to sustainable energy. As the White House has undoubtedly heard, under the most optimistic scenario the oil reserves in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge would fuel the U.S. car fleet for less than two years. Today, however, for new U.S. wells it takes on average about one barrel to get another. Despite rises in costs such as extraction, oil prices are still low because of government subsidies. That's helped fuel demand.
Supply is another matter.
U.S. oil production peaked three decades ago. As soon as global oil production peaks in the next several years, the ensuing down-slope will not be gentle. Demand, with world trade relying on oil for shipping, is about to meet ever- shrinking supply. Estimates of when this shortfall is to hit put it quite possibly during Bush's tenure at the White House. Natural gas is on a bell curve of depletion similar to oil.