For most months of 1999, the index's gain has been between 21 and 25 per cent. Check weekend editions of the Financial Post for the percentage changes from a year ago for North American stock indexes. Margin debt will drop. Borrowing money to buy stocks is a sign of speculator confidence. Dividend yields on the major stock averages will rise sharply.
Yields are an acid-test indicator of investment values and trends.
When those yields start to rise, it will indicate a trend change. Barron's is the primary source of yield data on major U.S. stock indexes. The Wall Street Journal also publishes yields for the Dow Jones averages every Monday and at month-ends. Trading volume on the New York Stock Exchange will drop to the previous year's level and below. Trading volume goes with the trend, increasing in bull markets and falling in bear markets.