The odds are for shrinkage, not increase, in a third party. This is a doomed enterprise. The Constitution is decisively tilted against it. Claims of this sort are always made by charismatic figures. The claim amounts to feel-good rhetoric to rationalize a heady campaign.
Tomorrow never comes.
It is a parochial fantasy. Nader's claim that he's not the spoiler is bad faith. Perhaps he knows it, perhaps not. But there is a deeper force at work. What is at work in the Naderite camp, what lies behind the fantasy that the masses hanker for radical change, is a purist approach to politics.