While I believe that it is reasonable to assume that all of these provisions will have some effect on tobacco consumption. Most analyses estimate that the price increases associated with the deal will be modest, and there is a reasonable amount of controversy as to just how price sensitive children are. Even if one assumes the highest numbers that I have seen quoted, any elasticity of around -1 for children, the price increases would only produce a modest reduction in the percentage of kids who smoke. I do not know of any evidence that disease warning labels deters kids from smoking. The advertising restrictions are, by international standards, mild.
Youth smoking remains a problem even in countries that have nominally banned cigarette advertising.
The look back provision provides no economic disincentive for the industry to continue recruiting these smokers, but virtually all the analyses that I have seen say that the provision only amounts to pennies on the pack, and still leaves a strong incentive for the industry to recruit children. As you know, I am a strong proponent of large, well funded and aggressive anti-tobacco education campaigns. I believe that this is the most productive element of the deal, however experience from the states that have such programs have demonstrated that they are required constant care and feeding and, because of political interference, have not reached maximum effectiveness, particularly with youth. Again, in writing this letter, I do not mean to be an nihilistic about the potential public health benefits of certain provisions of the tobacco deal. I do not believe that even an optimistic analysis of the public health provisions in the deal will support such an assertion.