Strong evidence suggests that s just what happened.
In all probability, had Elian Gonzalez s mother not fled Cuba, or had she not died at sea, or had the affair gotten little attention, Al Gore would today be president of the United States. In some ways, watching last year s election unfold was like watching a tiny drop of dye transform the color of a vast bathtub full of liquid. Florida profoundly changed the hue of the election for all Americans. Though they number no more than 800,000, their influence has been so effectively leveraged that they have effectively guaranteed a US policy of isolating Cuba despite evidence that most Americans believe the policy is impractical, hypocritical, and economically disadvantageous to both the United States and to ordinary Cuban citizens suffering from its consequences. Even before the battle of the chads, election strategists were well aware that Florida s size and electoral instability made it one of the most crucial swing states for the federal Electoral College.