Through this institutional maze it is possible to discern the channels along which the currents of reform may flow - President Khatami allied with a reform majority in a new parliament calling in the powers of the Leader and the National Expediency Council. Against this prospect of peaceful evolution, however, there remains the violent fringe in Iranian politics. Journalists and dissidents have been murdered, and although this has resulted in purges of the intelligence service, no public trials have yet taken place. Iran's clerical establishment must know, however, that change is overdue. Half the population was born after the revolution of 1979 and the young are increasingly restless.
Unemployment is high and rising, and per capita GDP is less than before the revolution.
Robert Jackson is the Conservative Member of Parliament for Wantage. He recently visited Iran with the first Commons delegation since the revolution of 1979.