Unfortunately, I don't, and that leaves me stuck in the alphabet soup. Investors are being asked to take a giant IOU right now against future earnings. Buy a stock today, the stock market's recent rallies have urged, and I'll gladly give you earnings tomorrow. Six more months of disappointment. Let me explain the importance of Vs and Us right now and then tell you why I think splitting the difference may be the best strategy for picking stocks right now.
V stands for very, very short .
In the V scenario, the economy falls off a cliff and then zooms right back upward. Instead of suffering through a long, drawn-out recession that lasts until well into the second half of 2001, the economy is going through a quick but painful inventory correction. That drop in orders in turn led companies to lower their guidance on sales for the quarter that ends in March. The good thing about an inventory correction is that it ends very quickly once companies work down the excess inventory sitting on their shelves. It might take a quarter and maybe a fire sale or two on old products, but after not too long, the shelves are empty again and orders go back to normal all up and down the supply chain.