Let's start with the word. Dictionaries and common wisdom agree that it is a period of declining economic activity where factors like the gross domestic product and employment are down for at least two quarters, and maybe for up to a year. Alan Greenspan, on the other hand, thinks that is a bit of a crude definition. To him, the key issue is whether or not a decline impacts consumer confidence. So it's not just whether or not indicators are down, it's whether or not you and I think it's all doom and gloom for the next little while.
Some people take it even further.
Take, for example, the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., a non-profit group that aims to promote a better understanding of how the economy works, and whose mission, apparently, includes identifying the arrival of a recession. Rather, a recession is a period of significant decline in total output, income, employment, and trade, usually lasting from six months to a year, and marked by widespread contractions in many sectors of the economy. Well, predicting a recession is no easier. Ask anyone if we are about to have a recession and there is not much consensus. Let's look at what has happened over the past few months.