The pressure, indeed, is building. This break is so close, yet the signals are not giving us a clear resolve. PPI tomorrow will be a tradable number, but the Fed's call on Tuesday might be the ultimate catalyst. Either way, we will be able to take advantage of this low volatility and short time premiums in May contracts next week. My gut says QQQ puts off resistance near 2200.
Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being financial institutions.
Commercials are historically on the correct side of future trend changes while small specs are not. Extreme divergence between each signals a possible market turn in favor of the commercial trader's direction. In addition, we see extreme divergence on the DJIA with the Small Specs doubling their short positions while the Commercials increased their long positions by 8.5 percent. We could see fluctuation of positions oscillate up and down for weeks or even months to follow.