But Russia admits that 1500 fragments, with four or five the size of a small car, could survive re-entry. While Mir's plotted descent sees these raining down on the empty expanse of the Pacific ocean, if the larger chunks hit land they would have an impact equivalent to a medium sized passenger jet. All the country's emergency services have been briefed, and airlines and ships in the region are monitoring the situation. While EMA expressed its confidence in Russian scientists, if the station veers off course towards Australia people will have less than 30 minutes warning that Mir is heading for their backyard. Not entirely reassuringly, the media will apparently be asked to spread the word, while officials have warned curious people not to touch any smouldering lumps of space junk which they may find embedded in their lawn.
Science is reassuring, but history is less so.
Mir has long been troubled by problems. It has suffered around 1500 computer glitches during its lifetime. A series of faults with its oxygen and air purification systems in 1997 culminated in a Russian supply ship smacking into the side of the station and nearly destroying it. In July 1997, a hapless Russian astronaut accidentally unplugged the main computer. Most worryingly of all, Russia lost contact with the station for 24 hours in December last year.