Yet there are significant consequences, whether or not a missile is launched. The United States is drawing closer to its allies in Japan and South Korea. Theater missile defense, to shoot down incoming ballistic missiles, becomes a more realistic prospect. The KEDO project is put at risk. And China finds itself a diplomatic loser, as U.S. allies perceive that it is not doing enough to curb North Korea.
Similar logic is at work in the China-Taiwan standoff.
There is much talk of a military option against Taiwan, but, as in the 1996 crisis, it is unlikely to be anything effective. Missiles fired into empty water in 1996 were met by the deployment of two U.S. aircraft carrier battle groups. No real shots were fired. The ''war'' was merely electronic and diplomatic. But the strategic consequences were important.