My gut feel is that we should get some severe storms in Zone 8 today, even though we haven't forecasted them. We should have a pretty active day Tomorrow the models still try to adjust to a McCollum type two pattern, but the northern U.S. flow becomes more zonal with no trough in the eastern Pacific. This is consistent with temperature advection pattern. Based on a weak pattern at best, the forecast is for no severe tomorrow, keeping a moderate risk of thunderstorms in the valley. P chart of the 12 UTC sounding from Luke Air Force Base on August 16, 1994.
Wind speeds are in knots.
The small box indicates the location of Phoenix, and the Salt and Verde River Basins are outlined. Observed Weather Thunderstorms formed during the afternoon along the Rim and later over the southeast. All storms moved ever so slowly to the southwest. The system to the east was moving toward Apache Junction, when the northern end of the line dissipated, leaving only the northern end of the remaining activity to track through the southern part of Phoenix. The system appeared to speed up after entering the valley and moved off to the southwest.