This result is due to a combination of two factors. First, the early, high-probability sites contribute more than the others to the chance of a successful outcome. As repeated failures push investigators to pick through lower-grade ore, it becomes increasingly unlikely that a hit will ever be scored. Second, even if a hit is made eventually, the shift to low-quality sources implies an increase in the expected number of trials required to make the discovery and, therefore, an increase in the expected costs of continuing the search. In sum, when search procedures can be optimized to incorporate useful prior information, high-probability sites command information rents associated with their expected contribution to the chance of success and to the avoidance of search costs.
Several insights emerge.
These results are robust over large ranges of parameter values. The valuation approach advanced here could be the basis of a technique for assigning an expected bioprospecting value to a habitat or parcel. Such a technique would take advantage of available scientific knowledge, and could be sharpened as new information emerges about relevant relationships. This includes information on the relationship between habitat, ecology, and the creativity of micro-organisms, and on how microbial communities are affected by various forms of environmental disturbance. Future work in this area should include an examination of how bioprospecting values vary with changes in the institutional environment.