Too much of business reading remains turgid and dry. These four are at least a level above the ordinary. This is well-written. This work has led, however, to today's almost religious reliance on numbers. The first is the exposure to discontinuity.
Serious windstorms occur in Europe for the first time in hundreds of years.
Discontinuities disrupt statistical prediction. The unintended consequences of our actions could dwarf what we attempt to contain. Read Bernstein's challenge even if you read nothing else. Although his is distinctly a public policy view, it should be read by other risk managers, including financial and insurance. Davies addresses risks, their responses, and the consequences of both inaction and the responses themselves.