The intent of this paper is to provide a brief overview of each of the models. Forecasters may find this information helpful when considering NHC discussions which mention the performance of individual models. A primary reference is provided after the summary of each model for readers who desire more information.
Statistical models rely on what has happened-the climatology of past storms, for example.
Dynamic models can be classified as either barotropic or baroclinic. Statistical-dynamical models are an intermediate class that incorporate numerically forecast data into a statistical prediction framework. It consists of a set of equations that separately predict future zonal and meridional movements of a tropical cyclone at 12-hr intervals out to 72 hr. The NHC90 model is the latest in a series of mixed statistical-dynamic track prediction models. Earlier versions included the statistical models NHC67 and NHC72, and the statistical-dynamical models NHC73 and NHC83.