In the case of the Soybean market, this tends to be true. Between 1989 and 1998, The Soybean market experienced 101 upward gaps on the chart, where the low of the current trading session exceeded the high of the previous session. 90 of those 101 gaps were filled within 5 trading sessions of the gap. Based on the current supply and demand, coupled with the time of the year, we expect Soybean prices to drift lower, but expect volatility to be present. Soybeans should exceed the June lows of 429 in the November contract before the end of July and quite possibly exceed the April lows at 417 .
Summer can be a vicious time for grain prices, as the markets are extremely volatile.
However, summer breaks in grains, especially around July and pollination have been pretty reliable, except in years of drought. With crop conditions improving weekly, Soybean prices look to be headed lower. However, July has a tendency to over due it to the downside as well. However, be warned Soybeans can be extremely volatile in July. It is not uncommon for Soybean price ranges to exceed 90 cents during the month.