When mast is plentiful, turkeys spread out more, are less visible and can be harder to locate. A good mast crop in 1998 kept turkeys deep in the woods and made them harder for hunters to find. Food supplies were about average in 1999. Fall turkey harvests in New York have fluctuated widely in recent years. During the same time period, the spring harvest, generally considered a better indicator of population size, has been stable.
Weather can have a tremendous effect on both nesting success and poult survival.
Damp weather in May can increase predators' ability to locate and prey on turkey nests, because scent trails are easier to follow. Cold, rainy weather during spring and early summer can severely reduce survival of young poults when they are most susceptible to chilling. Weather conditions during the spring and early summer of 1999 generally appeared to be favorable. However, surveys conducted during August indicated that poult production was only fair, although the results were better than in the previous few years. The combination of poult production and food availability resulted in a fall turkey harvest that increased in many areas, while holding stable or declining in others.