Some excellent performance by newer drugs is offsetting the Prozac decline. Zyprexa for bipolar disease is now larger than Prozac, as far as corporate sales, which was not widely expected several years ago. Humalog and Actos for diabetes also did very well. With drug companies, you never know which drug is going to be the big winner. Our task is to determine if they are investing enough in their research and development to produce a pipeline that has a high probability of sustaining acceptable growth.
Sepsis kills half a million people each year.
A discounted cash flow model on Eli Lilly shows that it is attractively valued. This is approximately a 450 basis point margin of safety over the 30-year Treasury, which is attractive. Eli Lilly has a culture that s very innovative in their labs. Management at Eli Lilly is very strong, and has delivered excellent performance. We also like that it has a diversified pipeline.