Good reference checking can be an expensive process initially, but it has a handsome payoff down the track. It can also be done by relatively junior staff with a bit of basic training. We go a step further by following up with an aptitude test. You probably don't have easy access to this facility, but we find it invaluable. We had problems some years ago with a few senior appointments and learned the hard way that there is no relationship between verbal fluency and ultimate job performance.
Someone can be quite impressive in an interview but incapable of handling the rigours of reality.
We need to insure ourselves against 'con artists' and have found a modern aptitude test will do this quite effectively. So, I think that gut feeling of yours can get you in a lot of very expensive trouble. I don't mean for you to discard it entirely but, don't let it rule you. I think you're better off letting a step by step methodical procedure lead your selection process than blind faith in extra sensory perception.