The most recent studies find the smaller effect. These estimates imply that the administration's proposal would cost between 100,000 - 350,00 jobs. The recent controversy on the impact of minimum wage hikes was spurred by a series of case studies by Krueger and his co-authors on the effect of minimum wage increases on the fast food industry. They found that teen employment had actually grown more in New Jersey. This paper, which fueled the recent minimum wage controversy, has become one of the most cited and criticized papers on the subject.
Several studies call into question the results.
Neumark and Wascher used payroll data from the same states and found a negative impact of the minimum wage on employment. She found that high teenage employment tends to lead legislators to vote for minimum wage hikes, and not vice versa. If legislators choose to increase the minimum wage when employment is rising, then it is difficult to distinguish analytically the negative effects of the minimum wage rise from the positive environment of the labor market that encourages the increase. Other possible adverse effects of the minimum wage must also be considered. For example, Neumark and Wascher have found that a higher minimum wage reduces teenage school enrollment and reduces labor force participation among those previously working.