Oil never returns to its 1998 peak of over 70,000 jobs, and manufacturing returns to the prior high only in the second half of 2001. Construction remains strong, with a 6 percent expansion in jobs next year, although the strength comes on a second-half rebound. By late next year, Houston will again have added 160,000 jobs in 24 months, and the need to build homes, businesses and infrastructure becomes the driving factor in local construction. The strength comes despite poor levels of construction in the petrochemical industry, a segment that typically can account for one-third of Gulf Coast construction jobs. Retail trade slows in 2001, as local consumers pull back.
Services generally match overall job growth.
Yes, and with so many indicators pointing in a positive direction, the risks are almost certainly weighted to the downside. The forecast in Table 1 is the most likely outcome in our view, but its strength is based on a confluence of positive events in national and global economic growth as well as in world oil markets. The Asian financial crisis put large amounts of oil back on world markets, creating an unmanageable glut and the lowest crude prices in decades. The Houston economy continues to gain steam, with 12-month job growth moving above 3 percent and October's 3.8 percent unemployment rate almost matching the lowest local October rate of the past decade. The monthly survey of Houston area purchasing managers shows the local mining and manufacturing sector continuing to expand strongly, even as the U.S. industrial sector slowed to a standstill in recent months.