Another way to tell is to look at other, earlier awards.
Winners there become odds on favorites for an Oscar.
It was a return to the epic that wasn't. Spartacus' and 'The Fall of the Roman Empire' are much more interesting than 'Gladiator,' which seems most heavily influenced by elements of the World Wrestling Federation and isn't particularly sophisticated or thoughtful. But he can tell you what films weren't nominated and should have been. Two categories could produce notable firsts. Right now he joins Jack Nicholson, Dustin Hoffman and Marlon Brando, Spencer Tracy, Gary Cooper and Fredric March with two each.