Iraq has regained over 80 per cent of the pre-Gulf War weapons manufacturing capability, including covert efforts to produce chemical weapons and missiles. Syria possesses chemical weapons and short-range ballistic missiles capable of striking Israel with less than three minutes of warning. Iran may be within two and four years from its first nuclear weapons and is buying Scud missile variants from North Korea. Because Israel is generally credited with an arsenal of between 100 and 300 warheads, the risk of a breach of the nuclear peace is quite considerable. Israel is highly vulnerable to surprise attack, and inclined to pre-empt against probable threats to its survival.
Tensions continue between India and Pakistan over Kashmir.
India has a covert arsenal of nuclear warheads thought to number more than two dozen and Pakistan has more than ten. North Korea continues to develop missiles with ranges of up to 3,500 km. Probably, Alaska and Hawaii would be vulnerable to a North Korean attack, within a decade. China is the final huge zone of strategic uncertainty. The Chinese authorities are just as willing to play the game of coercive diplomacy as are the Americans, as witnessed in the Straits of Taiwan just before the elections in Taiwan.