However, more students are leaving earlier, within the first two years, than in the past, he says. And the number of applicants to graduate school has dropped over the last five or six years, causing some departments to downsize. His English department, for instance, enrolled 350 students in 1970. In the past, about two thirds of students stayed long enough to defend their dissertations. Still, Nelson says, the glut of grad-school students dramatically outnumbers the number of decent jobs out there.
Students drop out, others keep applying, particularly to the prestigious schools.
Rather, applicants should get smarter about their future prospects when they enter a PhD. program. In reality, the market for professors has been dismal since 1970. Among Toth's cohort at John Hopkins University, in fact, only seven percent of her 30 classmates finished with PhD.s. Only six went on to academic careers. Three remain in the field.