Efficient computational techniques for the design of experiments in a Bayesian framework are also being developed by Dr Sebastiani in conjunction with Professor Wynn and has been supported by a grant from the Nuffield Foundation. Top of the page or Departmental Home Page Population studies Mr Ismail and Dr Farid are investigating the demography of a number of developing countries, particularly in the Middle East. This work involves the design and analysis of health and fertility studies and the application of econometric modelling. There are four PhD students working in this field. Top of the page or Departmental Home Page Investment Mr Booth is continuing work on the measurement of investment risk and the assessment of the risk of different investment strategies for personal and institutional investors.
Work continues on the valuation and analysis of real property and equity investments.
In particular, a closer study is being conducted of the option nature of the upward only rent review. Work on the valuation of over-rented property has been completed and published, as has work on the effect of the MFR on property investment. The currently available actuarial models have been reviewed, with particular attention paid to the traditional deterministic approach, Wilkie's model and Smith's jump equilibrium model. The project considered the justification of these models and the extent to which economic theory should be used in there development. No single approach was found to be superior and simple models were found to be adequate for many applications.