In 1988, North Korea began to suffer sharp drops in grain production. Two years later, its industrial output went into free fall. In 1992 China, by then its only major ally, suspended free oil shipments. And in 1995, with the economy already in steep decline, the country suffered its worst floods of the century, devastating crops and unleashing a famine. Outsiders can only guess at the exact toll, but between 200,000 and one million people are estimated to have died of hunger.
Some American experts continue to sound pessimistic about arresting the economic slide.
We should anticipate a flood of refugees, humanitarian needs, and the potential for chaos, a military coup or the devastation of civil war. Against this backdrop, North Korea has frightened its neighbors and Washington by pursuing a ballistic missile program, which included a surprise test launch over Japan's main island in August 1998. Treating its weapons industry as a lucrative export sector, North Korea has marketed its missile technology to Pakistan and in the Middle East. In recent years, Washington has negotiated with Pyongyang, obtaining a suspension of its missile tests in exchange for lifting certain sanctions. The emphasis of much of the recent diplomacy has been to get North Korea to continue to moderate its behavior in order to gain access to international aid and investment.