The late adopter risks adopting long after the economic benefit of the innovation has been diluted. Everyone hopes to be somewhere in the early middle section of the adoption curve. Yet no one has a gun to his or her head. The Amish farm quite prosperously with little in the way of modern agricultural technology as do many organic farmers. The problem for the vast majority of farmers is that they are caught on what agricultural economist Willard Cochrane calls the technological treadmill.
Technology creates gains in productivity that result in higher income for the adopter.
Higher productivity equals higher profits and the ability to expand the size of one s operation. Eventually the new technology is widespread, production increases, gluts occur, and prices fall offsetting the gains in productivity. Late adopters miss out on the early benefits of the innovation and thus find their own competitive position severely eroded. With the next innovation the risks of not adopting return. Those farmers who have opted out of industrial agriculture clearly demonstrate that choices exist and can be made.