Unless the Government of Colombia succeeds in establishing a security presence in the coca growing regions, Colombian coca cultivation will continue to expand and the guerrilla movement will continue to strengthen. Colombia's ability to respond to the emerging drug threat is compromised by interlocking economic, political, and social problems. The government remains wedded to a faltering peace process. The negotiations scheduled to begin July 7 were postponed by the guerrillas, who then launched a nationwide offensive on July 3, raising anew questions of their commitment to establishing a lasting peace. Meanwhile, the guerillas continue committing acts of violence against the government and the civilian population, including widespread kidnapping.
Violence continues at a level that undermines democracy and the rule of law.
There are now more displaced people in Colombia than in Kosovo at the height of the recent conflict. Colombia's economy is suffering through its first recession in more than 25 yeas. GDP shrink by more than five percent in the first six months of the calendar year. With unemployment rates at 20 percent, the populace is turning to the guerrilla, parami1itaries and narcotraffickers for paying jobs. Meanwhile, capital flight and brain drain accelerate.