How well forecasts translate into useful action plans for farmers, communities, businesses or governments depends on a host of factors, not least how that information is disseminated. Too often, say critics, scientific jargon is not translated into terms laypeople can understand. Farmer Somporn does not need to know what the sea temperatures are in the eastern Pacific. He wants to know when the rain is coming. Some governments do not take preventive measures because they don't trust the forecasts.
Studies tell so many different stories.
The Philippine government, on the other hand, acted on last year's forecasts and advised farmers what to plant. The dry spell is hurting the Indonesian economy in other ways. Coffee production is down, and at least one nickel firm has closed furnaces because rivers are too low to turn hydropower turbines. If the drought worsens as experts expect, Southeast Asia can once again say hello to the forest fire haze that choked much of the region last year. Indonesian disaster officials say the fires could be worse than they were in 1997.