The seriousness of this final step in the forecast process should not be downplayed, as it will directly motivate decisionmakers, food-aid organizations, and other actors in the food security management community to respond or not. Confusing or misleading forecasts only serve to further delay action by decisionmakers and others charged with mitigating the impacts of natural and human-induced disasters. The third stage in the misunderstanding of forecasts is in their misuse. Here, misuse refers to an inappropriate application or response based on forecast information. The overall objective of the forecast is, in general, either to maximize benefits or minimize adversity.
Uncertainty is one of the crucial factors which generates the various stages of misunderstanding.
Inherent in each part of the forecast chain, there is a degree of uncertainty. When aggregated, these uncertainties are compounded. Regardless of how reliable, timely, and effectively communicated the forecast, an inadequate or poorly conceived response strategy will render the forecast useless or of little value. It is important to make a distinction between organizations with primary responsibility for fews and those organizations with responsibility for the various components of the system. A famine early warning system must integrate many forecasts, including an ENSO forecast.