Some Recent Scientific Accomplishments in Observing, Understanding, and Predicting Climate Change over the Next Few Decades Human society is highly dependent on the Earth's climate. Climate patterns and human adaptations determine the availability of food, fresh water, and other resources for sustaining life. While anomalous variations in these shorter time scale patterns can have serious effects on society, the vulnerability of society to longer-term climate change, occurring over periods of decades to centuries, will depend on its ability to understand and respond to this change. Thus, it is imperative that society develop the strongest possible scientific understanding of the causes and dynamics of climate change and greenhouse warming, the potential ecological and socioeconomic impacts of change, and the implications of alternative courses of action to mitigate and adapt to change. Scientists have determined that climate can be influenced by both natural forces and human activities.
Solar radiation is absorbed by the Earth's atmosphere and land and water bodies.
Although much has been learned, there are still significant improvements to be made in estimating how human activities will combine with natural influences to affect the future global climate. Among other uncertainties, the magnitude and location of projected shifts in global precipitation patterns remain particularly difficult to predict. The likelihood that this warming is due primarily to natural variability is low. This observed warming trend is continuing despite the influence of the Mt. Pinatubo volcanic eruption, which caused volcanic emissions to reduce incoming solar radiation for nearly two years. The most recent climate model simulations have been able to explain the magnitude and temporal pattern of this observed trend reasonably well.