Occupation of Malanje would represent a strategic leap forward for Unita in its ambition to move towards either Cabinda or Luanda. The Government always thought that if it could not beat Unita outright that it would keep it contained in valueless and strategically unimportant territory. If Unita takes Malanje, the Government will have to think again. One strategy that the President, Mr Jose Eduardo dos Santos, seems unprepared to contemplate is reopening dialogue with Unita, at least for as long as it continues to be led by Mr Jonas Savimbi. The Government is persuading a reluctant population to side with it by demonising Mr Savimbi in the tightly-controlled media.
Tactic seems to be working.
But the longer that Unita wins territory, the more civilians will be driven to government-held cities where they put added strain on inadequate services. If Unita manages to threaten Cabinda's oil output, the outlook for the government will be less than propitious. Any loss of oil revenue would not just disaffect civilians, it could cause dissent in President dos Santos's ruling MPLA party. Small wonder then that the president has decided to abolish the office of Prime Minister and concentrate power in the president's office.