Another reason why violence and political breakdown have been avoided is the very corruption that is partly responsible for the current crisis. Corruption greases the wheels of creaky, unresponsive bureaucracies, creates informal networks of power so that things get done when they otherwise would not, and allows people to purchase power in Third World systems that they would otherwise violently revolt against. Turkey, however, is at the point where such corruption has outlived its usefulness and threatens an Asian-style financial meltdown. Any meltdown in Turkey, though, would be far more serious than an economic meltdown in, say, Indonesia. A Turkish economic disaster would have geopolitical consequences far more severe than the various economic crises that have affected East Asia in recent years.
Turkey is the political organizing principle of the greater Middle East.
It controls the headwaters of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, which supply Syria and Iraq, and it is the economic lifeline for new democracies in the Caucasus. Any weakening of Turkey's borders would open up the entire nest of questions, dormant since the end of World War I, regarding the real frontiers of Syria, Iraq and other countries, all of which were artificially created in postwar peace agreements. The Turkish military has been a fundamental element in the Middle East balance of power. For instance, a new Turkish-Israeli military alliance helped pressure Syria into peace negotiations with Israel in the late 1990s. A strong, stable Turkish government would be even more needed if Saddam Hussein were to fall.