An adaptive optimum strategy takes into account stochastic phenomena in nature and markets, as well as the long term effects of nearby treatments. Some aspects of stochasticity have been under thorough research. One of them is catastrophic mortality of trees due to forest fire, windthrow, or pests. Another fairly well examined factor is timber price fluctuation. The model incorporates some reactions of a forest ecosystem to climate change.
Stochastic simulation is applied and climate scenarios are used to generate stochasticity.
Any variables or distributions generated by the simulator can be used to compute utilities. It is possible to maximize, e.g., the expected value of the objective function or the expected utility adjusted by some risk premium. The structure of the simulation-optimization model. The decision variables define treatments to the forest stand. In addition to developing an optimization model, the objectives of the study are to analyze the impacts of climate change induced risks on optimum forest management.