Few took Mr. Kohl seriously in January 1996 when he announced plans to cut in half the number of unemployed, which then stood below 4 million. Mr. Kohl affirmed Friday. Unemployment could swell to even higher levels this winter, forecasters warn. Some predictions call for a peak of around 4.8 million or even 5 million by February. For 1998, some economists believe joblessness could average 4.5 million, up from 4.38 million in 1997 and 3.96 million in 1996.
Several factors have combined to hurt jobs progress, analysts say.
Political gridlock in Bonn has thwarted economic reforms deemed necessary to lure new investment and hiring, while Germany's companies have shed jobs to compensate for the nation's steep labor costs. Germany is divided on the labor-market front.'' The formerly communist Eastern states have been unable to benefit from the export boom for Western Germany's companies, said Bernhard Jagoda, president of the Federal Labor Office. Despite relatively mild winter weather, Eastern Germany's depressed construction sector continued to lay off workers, he said. The survey by the Emnid research group found that if the elections were held now, the Social Democrats would win 38 percent of the vote compared with 37 percent for Mr. Kohl's Christian Democrats. The Greens would win 10 percent, while the Free Democrats, the junior partner in Mr. Kohl's coalition, would fail to meet the 5 percent minimum threshold needed for seats in Parliament.