At present, no simulation model exists for the entire range of scales involved. However, a number of research groups in ACES are making advances in simulating some of the processes responsible for earthquakes. The microscopic physics of earthquakes may be simulated using particle-based numerical models. Such models rely upon the fact that rocks ultimately consist of atoms held together in a crystalline lattice by interatomic forces. The Lattice Solid Model has been highly successful, providing insight into earthquake nucleation, frictional heat generation, the localization of slip into narrow bands within a complex fault zone, and the earthquake cycle.
Simulated rock is damaged by breaking bonds between nearby particles.
The LNM has found that damage tends to localise along cracks which progressively grow and join up to form a large fracture. CAP seeks to identify precursors to macroscopic failure which might be used as warning signs. It is hoped that this research will result in forecasting techniques which identify an impending earthquake days to months prior to the event. Dynamic failure of a brittle material using a model by the Laboratory of Nonlinear Mechanics. Crack patterns in the model are very similar to cracks in natural rocks.