And many will have to settle for a job that pays less than they were making. The latest rounds of layoffs, coupled with slower job creation, may even mean that for the first time in a decade, Minnesota will show a net job loss when seasonally adjusted numbers are released for April, a key measure of an economy's vibrancy. No one expects the local economy to take a complete dive, but the accumulation of job cuts is a sign that Minnesota's diverse economy, which has shielded most people here from a downturn that's buffeted other U.S. cities, may yet be vulnerable. That's just natural,'' said Tom Stinson, a University of Minnesota professor and the state economist for Minnesota. The lost jobs, while obviously painful for the individuals, represent a minuscule portion of the state's total employment base.
Unemployment rates remain low.
A rational reaction is to build up a little cushion, to cut back a little bit on discretionary purchases. Art Rolnick, director of research for the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, doubts a recession is coming. He predicts the economy will post positive economic growth for the year, and he points to a number of the positive signs, including strong home sales, new home starts and a stock market that still carries some relatively high valuations. But Rolnick and Stinson agree that economists and forecasters are poor at calling a change in the economy. Even when we're at a turning point, we're not always sure we're there,'' Rolnick said.