The shallow cold, dry air advected southwest throughout January 30 into early January 31. Light precipitation occurred periodically over most of western Kansas during the afternoon and evening hours of January 30. The freezing drizzle continued for 12 hours, until 1137 UTC 31 January. This prolonged duration produced the heavy accumulation of ice and resultant problems. 1800 UTC 30 January regional surface chart.
Station model is standard.
The main forecast challenge was whether low-level warm air advection would be sufficient to change freezing precipitation to liquid. With model forecasts indicating the potential for prolonged precipitation from 0000 UTC 31 January to 1200 UTC, the precipitation type decision was critical. Typical precipitation-type partial thickness thresholds have been identified for western Kansas. Given that the surface temperatures were expected to be sub-freezing due to evaporative cooling, a logical conclusion would be to forecast a freezing precipitation event for Dodge City, Kansas during the period from late on January 30 to early on January 31. 0600 UTC 31 January.