Then the pace of invention speeded up and, until recently, the industry rule was around 18 months. More transistors mean a chip can perform more functions, while costs drop. Paul Packan, a key Intel researcher, took a stronger tack, predicting chip miniaturization would encounter serious roadblocks this year. The reason is grounded in simple physics. Transistors, the switches that perform much of a chip's work, will become so minuscule that it will be difficult to predict the course of an electric current.
Wires connecting switches are now one five-hundredth the width of a human hair.
To go smaller, chip makers need new technology to image chips onto a silicon wafer. There is hardly a note of panic in all this. Current chip-making uses ultraviolet light to etch circuits, so researchers are exploring different light sources. Bell Labs is betting that beams shot by electron microscopes can draw finer lines, and ibm is experimenting with X rays. Other researchers believe these strategies only postpone the inevitable, so they're looking at alternatives to silicon.