2 of the December issue of this Bulletin, as well as the associated CCA predictand loading pattern. The coastal SST anomalies in winter are shown to be closely related to the ENSO state during the several months preceding the time of the forecast. Forecasts with expected skill of less than 0.3 correlation are omitted. Positive anomalies exist presently along the eastern Gulf and southeast U.S. coast, perhaps in association with the prolonged cool ENSO episode. Positive anomalies are forecast in two locations near Hawaii, but with low skill.
Skill tends to be lower along the immediate coast than slightly farther out into the ocean basin.
A secondary factor is that a switch to a moderate warm ENSO condition is expected by the CCA during 1997, continuing into early 1998. Origins and levels of monthly and seasonal forecast skill for United States surface air temperatures determined by canonical correlation analysis. Linear statistical short-term climate predictive skill in the Northern Hemisphere. Prediction of ENSO episodes using canonical correlation analysis. Predictor field characteristics.