Although Chinese society might be inspired by the example of Taiwan, China's leaders have been reminded that they have much to lose by initiating democratization before their popular support has a stronger foundation than simply economic growth. How to tackle Beijing's explicit preconditions for re-connecting will surely be the most important challenge for Chen's new administration. But in all the talk of arms sales and possible military confrontation, almost no attention has been given to a possible diplomatic solution. It may be easy to conclude that in the current atmosphere a workable settlement between China and Taiwan is simply out of the question. Yet for exactly that reason it is time to start thinking seriously about what a settlement might look like.
Tea leaves can be hard to read, especially when they come from a mainland Chinese garden.
But after a quick propaganda tantrum or two, Beijing has more or less kept silent on the issue. Now, just two weeks away from the inauguration of Chen as the successor to President Lee Teng-hui, the official silence has, more or less, been broken. Yet China is conflicted, almost like two nations. The smart one concentrates on China's capacity for greatness. The other concentrates on blaming outsiders, especially Western ones, for its problems, which leads to China's historical penchant for shooting itself in the foot.