Yes, there are broad economic and financial patterns, but they don't always repeat themselves. The dilemma is trying to determine the contrast between today and yesterday, between what is fundamental and what is not. People who work in marketing securities naturally resist a negative outlook about their industry. On an institutional level, for example, the President's Council of Economic Advisors has never issued a report predicting a business recession. Mutual funds investments are becoming deposit substitutes.
Structural changes have enormous impact on monetary policy.
The accounting profession is not up to date. We do not get full reporting of the activities of financial institutions. Transactions have become too complex to be captured by conventional accounting procedures. Problems will arise if the availability of credit shrinks. The power in financial institutions has shifted from the top to the middle.