The next two chapters examine possible future conflict across the spectrum, as developed by Pfaltzgraff and Wright. David Ochmanek, senior defense analyst at RAND Corporation, observes that large-scale aggression is almost never regarded as likely until it occurs. Yet the threat and use of force by states have been endemic in the international system. He believes this will remain so well into the next century. While the next war involving U.S. interests cannot be predicted, Ochmanek identifies the states against which the United States must be prepared to wage war.
States meeting all three criteria today include Iraq and North Korea.
States meeting only two of the three criteria include China, Russia, and Iran. According to Ochmanek, the infrequency of large-scale interstate warfare should not be seen as indicative of the importance such warfare should have in U.S. defense planning. Indeed, the likelihood of large-scale interstate warfare depends in great measure on what the United States does and says. Wars that this country is prepared to fight rarely happen. If the United States were to lose the capacity or the will to defend its international interests, we would be inviting military challenges.