I remember last year around this time all the talk about the summertime decline. Well, we got a rally in the Nasdaq from May 24th until around July expiration. So don't buy into the talk because the markets always seem to do what's least expected. Check out the COT data below along with its analysis. It is worth noting that this report was complied as of Tuesday, May 15th, and therefore does not reflect the rally from Wednesday.
Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being financial institutions.
Commercials are historically on the correct side of future trend changes while small specs are not. Extreme divergence between each signals a possible market turn in favor of the commercial trader's direction. These figures may have changed since the time of government compilation. Expect the current gold rally and XAU index to top out soon. Commercials have been building extreme net-long position in this industrial metal, a bullish sign for economic health.