25 bp is pretty much expected. Looking at the New COT report below, positions have changed very little, indicating that most of the Fed bets have been placed. Commercials remained relatively unchanged. It certainly will be an interesting week with Tuesday's reaction and Expiration on Friday. Keep an eye on the VIX.X, which spiked toward 29 on Friday, but settled back down at 27.48.
Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being financial institutions.
Commercials are historically on the correct side of future trend changes while small specs are not. Extreme divergence between each signals a possible market turn in favor of the commercial trader's direction. We could see fluctuation of positions oscillate up and down for weeks or even months to follow.