The Chechens are seeing this conflict just as they did during the 1994-1996 war. They are fighting on their terrain and are prepared to take serious losses for national independence. Russian conventional forces cannot seal off the lines of supply from Georgia, nor can they occupy the mountainous terrain south of Grozny. Indeed, given the costs of urban warfare, they cannot easily take Grozny itself. Therefore, the theory goes, extended warfare favors the insurgent nationalist group.
Time is on the side of the Chechens.
Putin just indicated, however, that he has the means to sharply increase Chechen casualties without increasing Russian ones. That is a sobering thought, to say the least. This is a matter of general concern for all the countries surrounding Russia. So long as the security equation is stated in purely conventional terms, the West can help neighboring nations, from the Baltic Sea to Central Asia, pose a serious problem to the Russians. Once nuclear weapons are introduced into the equation, a very different outcome occurs.