Tough anti-inflation policies mean there is no real pressure on China to devalue in order for its industries to remain competitive. There may be other dangers facing the Chinese economy, but it is not going to be toppled by what is happening elsewhere in the region. Inter-Asian trade will be down, and demand for Chinese cement, for example, may be down, but consider that China can afford to stock up on cheaper imported raw materials. This will strengthen its economic base and boost its export industries. That is one pocket of possible growth in shipping.
Trade is down.
US and European exports to Asia have fallen by one-fifth. Asia is buying less heavy machinery, fewer machine tools, fewer aircraft, fewer Mercedes Benzes, less cognac and fewer Prada handbags. Forty percent of Asian exports are to customers within the region. These are clearly being adversely affected by the slowdown. Companies making cars, cement, steel, plastics or petrochemicals for customers around the region are hurting, especially if they have relied on protected home markets to sustain sales.