China is deeply suspicious of U.S. strategic goals in the region and they will be eager not only to limit U.S. influence but to use the crisis as an opportunity to warn the region that China, not the United States, is the major regional power. If China could become the dominant force in Indonesia, then Japan would become increasingly dependent on China for securing its trade routes. Now, China's ability to impose a pro-Chinese regime in Djakarta is minimal to say the least. Which brings us back to the primordial issue of ethnic politics in Indonesia. The Chinese community in Indonesia is the center of gravity of this election.
Xenophobia is a central motif of the elections.
China has forged close economic and psychological links with overseas Chinese communities. Its relationship with the overseas Chinese in Singapore is particularly important. These communities will be watching Beijing's reaction to China- bashing in Djakarta. Beijing will react. China is less interested in Indonesia's stability than it is in the region's perception of China's ability to act decisively to protect its interests.