Many are entertaining the hope that the bubble won't burst so much as spring a leak. I fear this is the triumph of hope over experience. A bubble by its nature will burst. When the Nasdaq comes down, wealth will be destroyed. It ceases to exist - and so can't simply be transferred to the Dow.
Panic is far too contagious to make that likely.
When the bubble bursts, the whole sharemarket will suddenly be on the nose and all share prices are likely to fall, even if some fall a lot further than others. So if we get nothing more than further wobbles on Wall Street, the 25-point tightening on May 16 will go ahead as expected. And once we get a full-blown crash with all the scary trimmings, the tightening episode will be finito. The next thing to consider is the likely implications for the US dollar. I doubt it.