What they came up with was frightening. Today, that interval has increased to five years a disturbing trend that scientists have not been able to adequately explain. The authors concluded that if trends continued, the right whale population would be extinct in 191 years. Prior to this research, many scientists believed that like other whales, most notably the humpback, the right whale was slowly on the rebound after being driven nearly to extinction by whalers at the turn of the century. However, according to Mr. Caswell's figures, the population was growing slightly until 1990 or 1991, when a slow decline set in.
People are a little worried about it.
It's not a good sign. Autopsies of dead whales over the last 20 years show that 30 per cent of the deaths were caused by ship collisions, and another 8 per cent were caused by entanglement in fishing gear. That's why many whale researchers think human-caused mortality should be targeted to ensure the survival of the species. The trouble is, whales are elusive creatures, even in death. Only about 30 dead right whales have been found in the last two decades, and some have been so badly decomposed, it's difficult to tell what killed them.