It demonstrates current output from NCEP's Eta model relevant to aviation forecasting efforts and discusses some upcoming changes to the model. 1 shows the Eta output of interest to aviation forecasters in both gridded and bufr format. 2 shows a sample Eta visibility forecast with the accompanying observations for verification. The areas of reduced visibility are generally forecast well, but the model tends too predict values that are too low.
Units are knots.
The wind gust algorithm determines the depth of the boundary layer, finds the maximum wind in the layer, and mixes a height-weighted fraction of that speed to the surface. It is being tested for future addition to the model. This forecast seems to do fairly well just east of the Rockies and over the intermountain west. It is noticeably poor over interior southern California. The 24-hr forecast shows the development of a TKE feature.