See Greenspan's recent view that job insecurity is leading workers to moderate their wag demands even if the economy is close to full employment. According to others, we are already below the natual rate now and inflation will start to increase soon. Such shocks are a deceleration in health care costs and a sharp fall in computer prices. Daily data for the Treasury yield curve . The yield curve gives you the market expectation of future inflation and economic growth.
Prices are present values, using yields as discount rates.
Price plus interest i equals principal. Longer sample series that are updated every month can be charted using the Economic Chart Dispenser . The yield curve tells us about future expected short term interest rates. Forward rates . We can thus compute the forward rates that define a forward rate curve.