This is often why average citizens are ahead of the Fed or government economists. They are living the recoveries, recessions and bear markets, and such clues are immediately obvious. Although not everyone is consciously aware of them, they still act on them. High level bureaucrats who are on the tax dole are often too insulated from these effects, and blind to the near term signals. Understand the source of a company's value.
Value creation is increasingly external .
Increasingly we must be able to understand other, intangible sources of value. We have not yet devised measurement systems for them, but you must understand them at least qualitatively. For example, it is increasingly essential to understand a company not just in terms of its products, customers and suppliers, but also in terms of its ecosystem. It is analogous to trying to understand the value of a spider in a forest ecosystem. It is impossible if we only look at the spider in isolation.