Up until Ottawa's actions last week, the Liberals believed they had the PQ government on the ropes over its record number of management bungles and gaffes. Second, Charest's Liberals may not back the Chretien bill, but they do believe federal polls that show Quebecers agree with such notions as a clear question in any future referendum campaign and respect for the scope of last year's Supreme Court judgment. The third factor in Charest's decision is his own caucus. Charest has to keep the peace between the factions. That motion also states that the National Assembly reaffirms it alone can determine the conditions of the referendum process, and that includes being allowed to make a decision based on a majority of 50 per cent plus one vote.
Observers say it's too soon to tell.
For one thing, on questions as fundamental as the future of a country, voters tend to take the time to see which way the wind is blowing before making up their minds. That tends to discount two recent polls showing Quebecers' interest in sovereignty remains unchanged or has even decreased. It's not easy to position yourself between Jean Chretien and Lucien Bouchard. Had he voted with the PQ, it would have given them more ammunition for a campaign. By voting against them he is pleasing the Liberals' traditional voters, but he is not adding many new ones.