Restructuring is expected to provide continued impetus for operating efficiency improvements, lower production costs, and retirement of high-cost plants. Capital costs for generating equipment are also expected to decline. In addition, financial requirements for construction are expected to change, as a wider range of investors enter the competitive market. Restructuring actions in States without formal plans are omitted, so the projections do not represent the full impact of moving to competitive pricing. By 2015, the price is expected to be 12 percent lower than EIA forecast a year ago, contributing to the lower electricity price projections.
Recent data show a greater impact of productivity on mining cost and price than projected last year.
Productivity improvements are also expected to reduce costs for Western surface mines, shifting more production to lower-cost Western mines. Prices are about 9 percent higher in 2015 than last year's projection, because of a lower assessment of the expansion of the resource base, higher drilling costs as indicated by more recent data, and higher projected demand for natural gas. Net oil imports are expected to provide 66 percent of oil consumption in 2020, compared with 46 percent in 1996, as a result of increasing oil consumption and declining domestic production. Crude oil production declines from 6.5 million barrels a day in 1996 to 4.9 million barrels a day in 2020. Although projected oil production in 2015 is the same as in last year's forecast, oil consumption is higher, leading to net petroleum imports that are 11 percent higher in 2015 than projected a year ago.