It seems to me that a lot of China's problems are precisely because the reforms in my mind are pushing up the unemployment rate. My bet is that unemployment has to go up this year. But if you really think about it, if the required structural reform for these countries continues, I can't really see that the employment situation is going to improve. Even if the economies recover in the first half of this year, I don't think you will see a visible recovery in the labour data. Ajay was saying that the problems will be shifting from Southeast Asia to Greater China.
People do point to China, rightly or wrongly, as somehow surviving the crisis so far.
If there's enough capital coming in to utilize the labour, long-term growth will continue. In the short term, the key concern is what will be the engine of growth, particularly if the market is forcing China to embark on all sorts of reforms. It's the 10th anniversary of Tiananmen, and the 50th of the founding of the Communist Party and the 80th of the May 4 movement. I think with China, the strains are particularly acute this year. With the yen getting so much weaker, putting further pressure on the renminbi, some people say that they honoured their pledge in 1998 and will they now seek in 1999 to do something to effect a devaluation.