With the yen getting so much weaker, putting further pressure on the renminbi, some people say that they honoured their pledge in 1998 and will they now seek in 1999 to do something to effect a devaluation. And I think that is not fully appreciated by the equity markets. Second, it's been asked whether the devaluation of the renminbi in December 1994, wasn't one of the proximate causes of the present crisis. A lot of work has been done on that and it shows that the share of trade from Southeast Asia to the rest of the world and that of China to the rest of the world, there's no difference. China did not steal market share away from Southeast Asian countries prior to the crisis erupting.
People are very quick to make macroeconomic pronouncements about how to solve the problems in Asia.
And I think macroeconomic policies are obviously central to the debate about the extent to which you can rely on fiscal policy, or whether you should devalue or rely on more aggressive monetary stimulus. All of these things have their merit, but the main issue is microeconomic. And you need a government that is willing and determined in its efforts to make that restructuring happen. As far as China is concerned, I do think there is still a reformist agenda. I don't really see the advantages of a renminbi devaluation at this point.