A sizeable portion of the voting population, upwards of 20 per cent, is uncommitted and on any given day is as likely to come down in favour of one candidate as the other. Scepticism about polls is hardly unique to the current election cycle. Pollsters themselves, not surprisingly, say it is not their fault that the media and others use their work in the heat of the election season to draw sweeping conclusions about campaign strategies or candidates' relative performances. They caution against giving their work too much weight in interpreting public opinion. But, in reality, that is precisely what happens.
Polls create what public opinion is.
Today's polls need to be taken with an extra grain of salt because of the unusual closeness of the race, most experts agree. It's misleading to say one candidate is leading over another when the numbers are this close. Past election cycles had their fair share of misleading polls. One week later, the race seemed to take a dramatic turn when the same poll found that Mr Clinton's lead had shrunk to 42-36. A tracking poll three days later had Mr Clinton at 41 with Mr Bush at 40.