In the four-way contest, Bush leads Gore 48 percent to 32 percent , and Buchanan's share has dropped from 3 percent two weeks ago to 1 percent now. Just under a third of Gore's voters say they are enthusiastic about his candidacy - while 46 percent of Bush's voters are enthusiastic about him. And Democrats are almost as likely to say Bush will win the November election as think their party's nominee will. Overall, nearly three times as many voters now expect a Bush victory as expect Gore to win in November. Gallup Polls since 1964 suggest that a five-point rise in support is an average convention bounce.
Most gains are between four and eight points.
Bush's four-point rise is actually on the low side of that range. While Bush's overall image was boosted by the convention, and Gore' s was weakened, in some ways the changes are relatively minor. There was little change in the public's assessment of how well the candidates understand presidential problems, or whether they could be trusted to handle an international crisis, or on caring about people. But the small changes all were to Bush's benefit, and Gore may have been weakened in voter evaluation of his foreign policy ability. Gore does have a clear advantage when it comes to the voters' judgment on whether the candidates care about the needs and problems of blacks and minorities.