The latter may have temporarily curbed the expansion in activity and encouraged the exceptional growth in imports. The new element in the evolution of the economy has been the emergence since the spring of a slowdown in household consumption. This reflects the drain on purchasing power exerted by the rise in inflation due to the oil shock and the fall in the euro.
Similar tendencies are to be seen in France's European neighbours.
The start of 2001 finds the euro zone's international environment slightly less buoyant. Growth has levelled off in the emerging countries, the oil producers are being cautious in the recycling of their income and, above all, the American economy is rapidly running out of steam. The downturn in world demand in 2001 will mean less rapid export growth for the euro zone. However, the downturn in external demand would be offset by a steady improvement in household consumption in the zone, partly because most countries have adopted programmes of tax reductions in 2001. At the same time, inflation should moderate, thanks to first a stabilisation and then a fall in the oil price in the spring, linked to the levelling off in world activity.