Markov Chains and Vegetation Monitoring. The Markovian method accurately distinguished simulated trend and noise, whereas the regression-based approach effectively measured the amount of change only. Combination of the two methods on plot and site level showed general trend in 5 sites, predominant noise in 1, divergent development of different parts of the meadows in 2 and ambiguous results for 1 site. To avoid misinterpretation, change should always be examined in terms of the two qualities, trend and rate.
Markovian models are a powerful tool to assess trend in vegetation change.
To make their whole potential available for prediction, alternative sampling strategies or transformations of the data may have to be evaluated.