But that would mean he was literally crazy, pathologically self-destructive. And, from Qaddafi to Saddam Hussein, leaders of rogue states have proved time and again that they're not crazy. Apparently Safire can. Then again, he's got a good imagination. Spread that over a million soldiers and you're talking real money.
Missile defense can work.
And if it stops one warhead from wherever, whenever it will be worth every penny. Because they will be carrying less warhead. We're big losers in this monetary expenditure race. Instead, they create risk and uncertainty, denying an attacker a credible theory of victory. What matters most is not whether the system works but whether potential attackers believe it might work.