And most of the deaths and damage came with those two devastating storms Jerry Jarrell, director of the National Hurricane Center, said at a news conference in Washington. We will never know now close we came to a comparable disaster in Key West. The experience of this season points out that the real concern in forecasting is the extreme event,'' added Hugh Willoughby, director of the federal Hurricane Research Center in Miami. Willoughby said his researchers will begin concentrating more heavily on rainfall forecasting in addition to the wind forecasts usually associated with hurricanes, since it was Mitch's heavy rainfall that claimed most of the lives. D. James Baker, director of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, noted that hurricane researchers correctly predicted an above average hurricane season this year.
People have to face up to it.
Gray, who underestimated this season's activity despite the above-average hurricane forecast, said the last four years have been the most active ever for hurricanes in the Atlantic basin. He expects another active hurricane season in 1999. Willoughby said he would not be surprised if that proved correct. The six-month Atlantic hurricane season, which started June 1, winds up on today after racking up the deadliest toll in more than 200 years. The Pacific hurricane season, which also ends today but started 15 days earlier, on May 15, was about average with 13 named storms and nine hurricanes.