The goal of this task is to have the NCWF on the ETMS display by May '01. Enhance NCWF algorithm, incorporating satellite, radar, lightning, and numerical model output. Report on software capabilities. Forecast capabilities will be validated using the NCWF as a baseline. Conduct research towards producing 2 hr forecasts of thunderstorm area coverage, sufficiently accurate to provide aviation users with estimates of location and navigable gaps in thunderstorm lines.
Research includes case-study analysis and testing of forecast methodologies using an expert system.
Enroute summer datasets coupled with anecdotal information and flight tracks will be used. Provide detailed case studies of enroute storms leading to air traffic delay. Work with users. Expert System for 2-6 Hour Forecasts 01.3.9.