The program is planned to start by the beginning of the 2001 harvest. It is difficult to evaluate its impact until it starts working. The resolution sharply increases licensing requirements for grain handling firms. The authorized organization to issue licenses is the State Bread Inspection agency. Given the slow speed of license issuance, it is expected that the real costs of getting and keeping a license will be much higher.
Trade policy continues to be tilted against commercial imports.
The intergovernmental agreement with India combined with tariff-free entry of grain from CIS countries continue to impede commercial grain exports to Russia. Domestic consumption is also on an upward trend and is forecast at 750,000 tons in 2000. Rice imports are expected to reach 400,000 tons in 2000, and 480,000 tons in 2001, as consumption demand continues to outrun production increases. Given its productivity, rice production is expected to continue increasing slowly into 2001, possibly to 300,000 tons. The majority of the growth is expected in Krasnodar.