False consensus and overconfidence effects represent two potential barriers to managers' use of their own intuitions in predicting product success. False consensus occurs when individuals believe that others are more like them than they really are.
Overconfidence reflects an overestimate of the accuracy of one's predictions.
In this paper we present three experiments which examine the existence and robustness of false consensus and overconfidence in the prediction of product success. We find evidence for both effects in the prediction of existing as well as new, product performance. In a third study we attempt to minimize both effects through debiasing procedures. While we produce some reduction of overconfidence, we do not reduce false consensus. We close by discussing the implications for product management.