The Chinese know that driving the stock market down a few points in a few days has direct impact on public opinion. China's announcement of an underground nuclear test last week only made the jitters worse, though credit-loosening measures in Taiwan helped the stock market get back on its feet. Invasion scenario spinning has become a cottage industry in Taiwan. Most of the scenarios are either exercises in creative political science or plain scare-mongering. After all, China has amassed 5,000 combat planes and 55 warships and has 2.9 million people in uniform.
Military analysts say no.
On Taiwan, analysts recognize their military is dwarfed by Big Brother's. Certainly China has muscle, but much of it is pretty old, like its flock of 3,000 MiG-19s. Maintenance is poor. Which is fine if it's a toaster, but if it's a helicopter, you need to do the suggested maintenance procedures. Furthermore, a lot of the muscle is unusable.