In mid-1996, unemployment rates in nonmetropolitan areas began a sharp decline. At about the same time, caseloads in these areas started to fall. Nonmetropolitan, Nonadjacent Counties Figure 4. Nonmetropolitan, Adjacent Counties Figure 5. Metropolitan Counties Caseload declines have been associated with improved economic conditions throughout Virginia.
Statistical analysis shows that as unemployment goes down, welfare caseloads decline faster.
For all three county types, caseloads were reduced, even when economic conditions were held constant, that is not allowed not to change. The evidence suggests that welfare reforms are having an effect on caseloads, and these effects are in addition to those created by economic opportunity. In addition, nonmetropolitan nonadjacent counties have a faster rate of caseload decline than the other two county types. Thus, welfare reforms are having an effect in all county types, holding economic conditions constant. Overall, monthly earnings for former welfare recipients in Southwest Virginia averaged 79 percent of those in Northern Virginia.