But budget numbers, anything outside of two weeks, are notoriously uncertain. A raft of studies circulating in Washington's policy wonk circles points this out. If left unreformed, current entitlement programs will unbalance the federal budget deficit in 2027 even if every penny of the current Social Security and Medicare surpluses bought back government bonds rather than supported new spending programs. That may be a distance worry, but DC think tanks focused closer to the present also conclude that the US government doesn't enjoy the level of disposable income that the two candidates would have us believe. That's real money, but it won't support the myriad of programs the candidates promise to bestow on important constituencies.
Many factors conspire to shrink the usable surplus.
Congress, the members of which Mark Twain noted constituted America's only criminal class, will consume a share before either candidate places a hand on the Bible to take the oath of office. Estimated budget surpluses are based on its doing in the current and future years what it promised to do in the past. This isn't likely. In recent years they outspent caps by declaring such predictable expenses as the census emergencies. This is an election year so the pressure to spend in tough congressional districts is increased.