Black made a couple of useful observations about bear markets. And he noted individual stocks and sectors can do well even in such a dire scenario. Shares of Toyota, for example, have tripled since bottoming in 1992. Black said his firm became extremely wary of stock valuations a year or so ago when tech stocks were reaching the dizzy apex of their bull market. Nobody knows where the bottom is.
Nobody is that smart.
We think there are. Martin Roberge is another stock-market observer who wasn't surprised to see yesterday's strong market rally. Roberge, National Bank Financial's quantitative strategist, believes the table had been set for a big bounce in April by the drubbing stocks suffered in February and March. Roberge is seeing stocks on a yo-yo string for the year ahead. According to his analysis, a big rally this month will be followed by fresh disappointments and new lows in May.