But fast growth in China and India gradually will overtake the countries of today's industrialized world, and by 2020 those two will be counted among the world's biggest economies. Yes, they have a long way to go until they are mature economies, but they will remain engines of growth for a long time. Though we expect a brief recession over the coming year, and a return to high growth in 2002, there are three distinct long-term possibilities. First, if the growth fundamentals of technology and globalization that have been powering the boom so far persist, then there is every reason to believe that the boom will resume. The return to high growth could come quickly, by the end of this year, following a V recession.
Recovery takes a bit longer as the restructuring and restoration of confidence stretches out.
The implication of a U slowdown would be that growth will take off again by the middle of 2002. In either event, we would be seeing the boom take off again by the end of next year. And this time it is likely to be global in character as Europe and a recovered Asia also kick into high gear, joining the United States at a high growth rate of 3 to 5 percent. A second possibility occurs if the technological engines of growth are weaker and the productivity gains of recent years were merely cyclical rather than structural. Then we may be in for a return to the slow growth of the '70s and '80s.