Modeling of the Folsom Lake reservoir operations 3. Development of models for hydrologic forecast uncertainty 4. Development of methods for downscaling global climate model information 5. Simulation of current operational practice for the management of the Folsom Lake reservoir. The model contains components for snow accumulation and melt, soil water accounting, and channel routing.
Performance is satisfactory in all cases.
The model was in turn forced with historical traces from the same period from each historical year and likely scenarios of future Folsom Lake inflow were generated. In all the cases, the initial soil water conditions of the hydrologic model were set equal to the current conditions as estimated by the same model using the observed current data. It is apparent that the forecast error moments of the ensemble forecasts are likely to be substantially lower than the corresponding second moment properties of the flow variability over the same study period. The ensemble forecasts are skillful out to 14 days, at least. The performance for longer lead times out to 60 days is shown in Figure 11 and Figure 12 .