There are more Democratic than Republican seats in serious trouble, but recent polls, including one taken late last month by the Pew Research Center, indicate an overall edge for the Democrats. As a result, according to many analysts, Republicans, who now control 55 of the 100 Senate seats, no longer have much hope of gaining a filibuster-proof majority of 60 votes. And Democrats have little hope of regaining control. Both parties have begun talking about positioning themselves for major change in 2000. There are lots of reasons for the dearth of prominent challengers this year, including a mellow national mood that helps incumbents and discourages challengers and the mounting psychic and financial costs of undertaking a Senate campaign and career.
People look at the sacrifices they have to make . . .
Outsiders emphasize the importance of the national mood and the boost it gives to incumbents. The economy is great, the people are satisfied with where the country is and every indicator is that this is a great year for incumbents. When the country was angry at Washington, as it was in the last couple of election cycles, challengers are motivated to take on potentially vulnerable incumbents, many of whom opted for retirement. But the reverse is true when the country is less aroused about Washington and feels more charitable toward incumbents, as now appears to be the case. The encouraging outlook for incumbents was underscored in the Pew Research Center poll, showing that 63 percent of Americans want to see their own representative in Congress reelected, compared with 49 percent during the anti-Washington furor of 1994.