The 54th division holding Kilinochchi may be expected to launch a southwards thrust in support of troops of Operation Jayasikuru advancing north from Mankulam in what defence analysts have speculated could be an attempt to trap the Tigers in a pincer move. The army has overcome its immediate manpower problem now that some 11,000 of the 15,000 army deserters have gone back. Most took advantage of the amnesty for deserters while others were arrested. They are being used to fill out battalions depleted by constant action and to play a holding role. Navy ground troops have meanwhile taken over security of the islands west of Jaffna and the battalions holding them have been re-deployed in the Wanni.
Residents report that some thinning out of the army presence in the peninsula has been noticeable.
The army has been bogged down around Mankulam since early this year mainly because of the shortage of troops to hold captured areas and allow the fighting divisions to advance. Furthermore, more than once, troops trying to advance were thrown back by fierce Tiger counter-attacks. However, in the longer term, the military will still need more troops to hold the areas captured from the Tigers, especially the vital main supply route, so that the fighting divisions will be free to operate against the Tigers on either side of the road. The military is faced with the task of turning a terrorist group that has become almost a conventional army back into a guerrilla group. The military has said that more than 1,300 soldiers have been killed in the offensive and put LTTE casualties at about twice that number although the Tigers themelves had admitted losing only the same number of cadres.