Only infrequently do situations arise where relatively clean tests of rational player behavior or market efficiency can be conducted. State-sponsored Lotto games do seem to offer such an opportunity, because the mathematical expectation of a bet depends on, among other things, players' aggregate behavior. In deciding whether to play, each player must predict how others will behave and then act on that prediction. A slowdown can generate a gambling Catch 22 for lottery officials. Smaller jackpots generate slower sales.
Slower sales generate smaller jackpots.
During the 1990s, most state Lotto games have changed formats, adopting longer odds that lead to more rollovers. The marketing philosophy seems to be that more rollovers create bigger jackpots and disproportionate increases in subsequent sales.