Similar findings exist for other countries, including the United States.
But although Canadian and U.S. interest rates generally move quite closely together, the Canadian yield curve has been distinctly better at predicting future Canadian output. This article is mainly a summary of econometric work done at the Bank. It also touches on some of the extensive recent literature in this area. Permission is granted to reproduce or cite portions herein, if proper attribution is given to the Bank of Canada. Read our privacy statement .