The presence of sulphate aerosols in the atmosphere is presently felt to have a strong local cooling effect. The effect on radiative forcing is computed as where E is the emissions rate and Eo is the initial emissions rate. The change in global mean temperature depends on the sum of the changes in radiative forcing, climate sensitivity, and ocean thermal inertia. The most commonly cited range of climate sensitivity is 1.5 to 4.5 deg. C. Ocean thermal lag is computed using an upwelling-diffusion model.
Thermal expansion is computed from the oceanic upwelling-diffusion model referenced above.
These in turn are driven by equilibrium temperature change. Edmonds, J. and Barns, D.W. 1992. Edmonds, J. and Reilly, J. 1985. J.A., Reilly, J.M., Gardner, R.H., and Brenkert, A. 1986. Uncertainty in Future Global Energy Use and Fossil Fuel C02 Emissions 1975 to 2075 .