Convective Gust Potential Forecast Procedure. This section will address dry and wet microburst forecasting, and will not focus on radar techniques associated with either. The study used 155 dry microburst days out of 186 total. The highest number of microbursts occurred in mid July, although late May had several active days. All of the events studied were accompanied by heavy precipitation and a temperature drop.
Thermal environment is statically stable.
Shallow radiation inversion on 1200UTC sounding at the surface, approximately 50 mb deep. Low level moisture extends from the surface to about 500 mb and is capped by dry mid level layer above 500 mb. Equivalent potential temperature profiles are potentially quite unstable with a minimum at about 650 mb. Therefore, an analysis of upper level charts is a must. At 850 mb and 700 mb, look for convergence zones, temperature ridges and moisture axes.