Many analysts predicted sluggish growth for years. Suddenly, in the middle of the decade, everything took off like a rocket. We'll be just as surprised by what happens during the next 10 years. Every time you think you've finally learned rules, someone changes the game. As investors, we habitually confuse strategies with outcomes.
Outcomes are pure hindsight.
Strategies are decisions you make when you don't know what the outcome is going to be. In hindsight, you should have been invested in tech stocks-that is, until last March. As a strategy, however, you need to diversify over the entire market, because you have no idea which stocks will lead the next wave up. It could be techs again but different techs-not the ones that you own now. Individuals can't and don't diversify when they buy individual stocks.