Migration flows are of interest in a number of policy contexts, including the projection of household numbers and projecting the future need for social housing. There is also concern about the extent to which past patterns and trends in migration can, or indeed should, provide the basis for forecasts. The Department commissioned a team based in the Universities of Newcastle upon Tyne and Leeds to undertake a review of existing data and evidence concerning the determinants of migration flows affecting the regional and subregional distribution of population in England. There is no single comprehensive source of information on migration to, from and within England and its constituent parts. The overall picture has to be assembled from sources that vary in their coverage, detail and accuracy.
Migration is a major force for population change at all spatial scales in England.
Recently, migration has been adding more to national population than has the surplus of births over deaths, while the volume of population redistribution within England is progressively greater at finer spatial scales. Population composition is a key determinant of migration turnover in an area because the chances of people moving depend on age, stage in life course, social status and cultural attributes. The main factors influencing people's migration behaviour include labour market conditions, availability and price of housing, environmental and quality of life considerations and the effects of government policies. The importance of these factors varies between types of migration. Models which take these factors into account should provide a better basis for forecasting migration flows than trend extrapolation, but experimentation is required to identify the best-performing type of explanatory model for any application.