Severe Storms Forecasting anticipating the danger Severe storms modelers have performed many simulations over the years with the intention of helping to make more accurate forecasts.
Modelers can alter the environment that a storm starts and evolves in.
Changes in storm behavior can then be assessed. An important characteristic of the atmospheric environment is vertical wind shear , a measure of the change in horizontal wind speed and direction with height. Researchers have found that different vertical distributions of wind speed and direction can make the difference between whether a storm becomes a harmless shower or a tornado producing supercell seen below. As a result of all of these studies, the research community has provided forecasters with information on the relationship between the storm environment and the type and behavior of storms that could possibly develop. In addition, severe storm modelers have begun using high-resolution forecast models to predict severe weather.