President Demirel may have oversimplified the question. Under the terms of a 1987 protocol, Turkey had promised to supply a monthly average flow of 500 cubic meters per second at the Syrian border. Baghdad has calculated that the average flow of the Euphrates is approximately 1000 cubic meters per second and that Turkey, Syria, and Iraq are supposed to divide this water equally. As it now stands, unless some agreement is reached between the three states, each will tend to view the other as a threat to its water supply and, thus, to its national economy. Iraq, being the furthest downstream, will probably be the most unwilling to seek any compromise.
Turkey currently has the upper hand.
Iraq cannot move its armed forces into northern Iraq without great risk from American and British aircraft. Turkey is constructing as part of the Southeast Anatolia Project, as Turkey now possesses Patriot missiles with which to respond to any Iraqi threat. One of the basic problems is the Kurdish issue, which is one of Turkey's obsessions. At present, there is a major problem in the pro-PKK strategy employed by Syria and Iraq to prevent Turkey from developing its water resources to the maximum extent possible. First, Turkey is the upriver country, and there are generally no international laws concerning the rights of upriver countries as opposed to downriver countries, like Syria and Iraq, with regard to water resources.