A quarter of the city's estimated 46,800 gay men are HIV-positive. About 80 percent of HIV infections in the city are among gay men, an estimate based on several studies. The infection rate for gay men who also inject intravenous drugs was estimated to have more than doubled to 4.6 percent, compared with 1.9 in 1997. The estimates, based on four new studies, are both higher than preliminary figures San Francisco released last year and confirm fears that a new wave of the AIDS epidemic could be gaining steam. Public health experts say the San Francisco data was a clear sign that after years of relative stability thanks to aggressive prevention programs, safer-sex publicity and new drug treatments, the gay community was dropping its guard against the HIV virus.
Nobody likes to have to negotiate sex, and nobody likes to have to use condoms.
Coates said that, paradoxically, the successful new AIDS drug treatments were now believed to be one reason for the rising level of new infections. The antiviral drugs are keeping HIV-positive individuals alive longer, making it possible for them to spread the virus to more people. That played a really huge role in motivating people to stay HIV-negative. The trend may not be unique to San Francisco. Federal health officials say similar findings are beginning to surface in Seattle, Los Angeles, Miami and Chicago.