Some people have almost no chance of being in Group 1. For these people it is clear that they should not be given chemo alone. Most BMT doctors would probably opt for a BMT in this case. I believe that these people also do not do well with a BMT, and some consideration should be given to experimental therapy. However this is probably controversial.
Most people fall into the average group.
Probably the right answer here is to be in a clinical trial to answer this question. Here it is clear that the right thing to do is chemo first followed by BMT in case of relapse. There is no doubt that the relapse rate is significantly higher for those undergoing a BMT after a relapse. By doing a BMT in first remission you are transplanting people in Group 1 who could have been cured by ordinary chemo. It is probably the case that some people who would have been cured by a BMT in first remission will not be cured by a BMT after a relapse.