International arms dealers say that last year the French were allowed to 'find' a disarmed explosive device, left in a public place, as a sign that the terrorists meant business. Yet they've also learnt a more subtle game. But doling out extortion money is no long-term solution. It's fine for the terrorists who have lost some of their most important Eastern-bloc paymasters notably the Soviet Union and East Germany but once they have filled their coffers, the temptation to use newly purchased hardware may be irresistible. Some of the traditional constraints, imposed by the old state sponsors, have gone,' says Dr Bruce Hoffman, expert in terrorism at St Andrew's University.
Terrorist groups are more diffuse and amorphous right now.
Last year, a report by the parliamentary human-rights group said Iranian assassins had killed 11 of the regime's critics outside the country during the first five months of 1996. But it's not clear where the orders came from. The government and the clerical factions frequently differ on methods and tactics. What is also unreported, according to arms dealers in the Gulf, is the virtual mass production by Iran of chemical and biological weapons, which poses western governments their most immediate security nightmare. The substances are often odourless and colourless, and thus undetectable by conventional equipment.