The important public policy question is not whether to regulate the Internet or not, as if that were a realistic choice. Rather, it is how to regulate it responsibly in a manner that maximizes consumer welfare and does not stunt its infinite growth and innovation potential. In reflecting on the Internet, I have come to believe that a responsible regulatory model must weave into its philosophy, its organization, and its rules certain key guiding principles, which I would like to outline. The first lesson that must guide our understanding is that it is nearly impossible to predict where the Internet and digital convergence are going. Indeed, it has become a bit of a hobby of mine to collect quotes of learned individual's failed predictions about the future course of new technologies.
Rules rest on assumptions-about technology, about costs, about markets, and about behavior.
The stability and usefulness of our rules are dependant on these assumptions remaining valid for at least some reasonable interval of time. In Internet time, the assumptions can be fleeting, for the dynamic is one of swift, and at times, blistering change and evolution. Our rules and policies must recognize this and incorporate mechanisms for dealing with changing foundations. Third, the more specific a prediction, the less likely it is to be correct. Fourth, past performance is a predictor of future result, but not a good one.