One or two days difference in the selling date could change price this much. 3.05 Note that selling at harvest produced the highest price in 7 of the 14 years and the highest average in the 14-year average. Hedging produced or tied for the highest price in 7 of the 14 years. Forward contracting and buying call option contracts tied for the highest price in 1993 and 1998. Selecting the strategy that produced the highest price each year increased the average price by 12 cents per bushel.
Theory also supports selling at harvest.
Market payments for carry are the reason that wheat prices normally trend up after harvest. The amount the market will pay for carry is determined by who can own and store wheat at the least cost. Commercial elevators that own the wheat have lower carry costs than producers. The results shown in Table 2 support this theory. On June 20, store wheat and sell KCBT Dec wheat contract.