To assess the degree of risk associated with the point forecasts of a Y2K effect, we asked the forecasters to assign a probability to various possible ranges of the effect on real GDP growth in 1999 and 2000. However, for fiscal years beyond 2000, the forecasters expect much smaller surpluses. The survey, which began in 1968, is conducted each quarter. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, in cooperation with the NBER, assumed responsibility for the survey in June 1990. This writeup contains partial results of the survey.
More detailed tables are available.