Noerper argued that, while potential problems remain, the current situation offers an unprecedented opportunity to move toward greater stability on the Korean Peninsula. Dr. Stephen Noerper is an Associate Professor of International Relations at the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies in Honolulu, Hawaii. The views expressed are his own and do not reflect those of the Center or the United States Government.
Unprecedented consensus exists over gradual change, with impetus in several directions.
Secondly, Kim Jong-il's regime slowly, but increasingly, appears more responsive to the reality that the state will maintain itself only through opening to the outside. Third, external elements are uniquely aligned to facilitate peaceful transition on the peninsula. The roots of this watershed lie with South Korea's Nordpolitik, but received new impetus and scope from President Kim, who applied a pro-engagement stance centered on business and other informal areas. South Korea has seen steady progress, with Hyundai's investment in Mt. Kumgang tourism a high visibility venture. Perhaps most significant is the steadily growing web of informal contacts, with 5602 visits by South Koreans to the North last year - a number exceeding all accumulated visits in the decade prior.