Gilbert Shapiro and John Markoff provide a clear introduction to a difficult and ambitious plan of research that has occupied most of their adult lives. Part one is about ambitions chastened. Part three somewhat defensively trumpets probable success based on statistical tests of the reliability and standardization of codes and the bias of selection in the cahiers . Part four then surprisingly but tellingly settles for fragmentary results. It offers no general interpretation of the French Revolution.
Resolution proves to be incomplete, but hope is reaffirmed.
This implied narrative is a faithful representation of the scientific ambitions of quantitative history. At a time when the status of causal analysis is itself in question, this is important ammunition for those who believe that history can still interact fruitfully with the social sciences, seek causal explanations, and participate in the building of social-science theories. This book does not, however, follow the usual monographic model, if only because it is so long and detailed. Although at first glance it appears to lay out a thesis, present the evidence, recount tests run on the data, and then advance conclusions, it reads more like two overlapping books. The first three parts are almost entirely focused on content analysis as a method and the particular approach to content analysis developed by the authors.