Reporters, meanwhile, like quoting the forecasts because they give stories a voice of authority. Evan Schwartz, an occasional columnist for The New York Times who quoted the Jupiter figures in August, says he used them because he needed specific numbers to support his contention that on-line shopping will be big business. It's a bit of a trap. You need the numbers, but you know they're not very reliable. Two weeks after Schwartz's column appeared, a Times story by Sana Siwolop cited Forrester's more conservative on-line shopping figures.
Projections come with caveats.
These companies make predictions three and four years into the future for an industry that is in its infancy. Some of their methods have built-in problems. Reports from outside sources that predict Internet shopping will be booming in the years ahead can help lure investors to Internet companies looking for capital. They need to raise money. If there's no one out there talking about how big the on-line market is going to be, they have to make the case themselves to potential investors.