The Russian attack on Chechnya represents a strategic decision indicating Russia believes the empire's disintegration has reached its limit. Chechnya will not be permitted to become independent. What must be understood, however, is that as long as the area between Turkey and Russia remains fragmented into a series of small nations, Russian control over Chechnya or Dagestan will never be truly secure. Russian frontiers went as far south as they did for a reason. If Russia plans to keep Chechnya, the geopolitical logic will draw them south, back to the Turkish frontier.
Turkey has an interest in a buffer zone between itself and Russia.
Turkey has an interest in the Balkans, where it has sent peacekeepers, and where Muslims see Turkey as a defender of their interests. Turkey has an interest in northern Iraq and in the Kurds. As the Russians become more active, their interest and Turkish interests will inevitably collide. Russian support for Iraq, for example, will be partly conditioned on tying down Turkey. As the conversation shifts from Jerusalem to Grozny, two issues emerge.