Even in countries in which the virus has already spread widely, effective prevention now can save the lives of many people who would otherwise become infected. Early action is critical because HIV spreads exponentially early in an epidemic. Medical researchers suspect that HIV is most infectious in the first few months of infection, suggesting that early in an epidemic a large proportion of people with HIV will be highly infectious. HIV will have spread widely. For many developing countries these costs will devastate already fragile health care systems.
Prevention now is therefore critical.
Third, at the household level, AIDS deaths exacerbate the poverty that is conducive to the spread of the disease, thus creating a vicious circle. Active government involvement is crucial if AIDS is to be contained. Governments have a unique responsibility to intervene to reduce the negative externalities of high-risk behavior while preventing discrimination that would inhibit behavioral changes. Without these government efforts, those at high risk of contracting and spreading HIV are unlikely to reduce risky behaviors sufficiently to prevent the acceleration of the epidemic. Because no effective cure has been found, prevention must be the preeminent objective in AIDS policy in developing countries.