So in the first year or two of a Clinton administration the economic news will appear good. The cyclical bounce will be assisted by accelerated spending, for both public and private spending will be pulled forward in time by decree and by tax credit. For the next two years or so the object of the game is to reduce unemployment and increase capacity utilization. The main event will be the Clinton administration's attempts to accelerate productivity growth. His success or failure at this task will determine the success or failure of his presidency.
Money is easy to find if long-run growth is rapid.
Money will be impossible to find if the long-run productivity growth trend remains slow. And unless long-run growth accelerates Bill Clinton or his successor will face the awful political task either of telling America's elderly that the country has promised them more in medicare, social security, and pensions than it can deliver, or of telling America's taxpayers that they must finance benefits for those who are old in 2000 at levels that those who will be old in 2030 will never receive. Many things are possible if the productivity slowdown is reversed. Few things are possible if American productivity remains stagnant. This was appropriate in the campaign.