This is the fourth volume in the annual Strategic Assessment series produced by the Institute for National Strategic Studies at the National Defense University, and undertaken to contribute to the national effort to understand more clearly the nature of, and the U.S. role in, the new international system. While Strategic Assessment is not an official government publication, we trust that it will inform and influence policymakers and academics alike. Each previous volume has had a specific theme. Market democracies form the core of the U.S. international strength. Transitional states will determine the nature of the international system.
Troubled states generate many new security concerns.
The most likely conflicts in the emerging system are the least dangerous to U.S. security. Proliferation of weapons of mass destruction is increasingly a current rather than a future concern. The U.S. domestic focus is limiting our national security capabilities. Information technology is displacing heavy industry as the source of national power. International organizations are assuming an important legitimizing role, despite their limited capabilities.