But . . . no one wants to look silly, especially when asked to make a 1997 forecast in October and early November. Moods change quickly, and the stock market often defies the prevailing sentiment at the end of the prior year. At the end of 1993, for example, many analysts were bullish, only to see a subpar 1994. That brought the bears out of the woods heading into 1995. But they don't want to predict that.
Unforeseen things do happen.
Stock prices through early November weren't exactly cheap. And corporate earnings will be hard-pressed to grow as fast they have this year. But earnings increases will be hard to come by next year. Companies are up against some tougher comparisons. Atkin didn't care to estimate where the Dow might finish in 1997.