New research says many forecasts are overshooting.
For the most part, academic researchers have said no. Dan Bernhardt, a University of Illinois economics professor, offers striking evidence of a different pattern. Bernhardt said the overshooting apparently stems from the environment of forecasting, in particular the promise of higher paychecks and promotions going to analysts who successfully separate themselves from the field. One or two accurate predictions that depart sharply from the consensus can give an analyst press attention and hence a career. The order of release and the possible bias in forecasts must be taken into account.