Carefully read each strategy and use the links to obtain products that will provide guidance as you construct your forecast. Temperature Advection Over Forecast Site Enter your forecast of the surface temperature advection that will be observed over the forecast site at 12 UTC tomorrow morning and 00 UTC tomorrow evening. Forecasts will be verified by examining the relation between the geostrophic wind as revealed by the mean sea level isobars and the 1000 mb to 500 mb thickness field at the valid times of your forecast. Your forecasts will be verified against the standard surface analyses for the valid period. Your forecasts will be verified against observed sky conditions at the valid times.
Several factors favor the occurrence of precipitation.
These include adequate moisture, a lifting mechanism, and instability. Determine which of these three factors you feel will favor precipitation at 12 UTC tomorrow morning and 00 UTC tomorrow evening. Your forecast will be verified against the NGM's analysis of the average relative humidity in the layer between 850 mb and 500 mb at the valid times. Moisture will favor precipitation at 00 UTC tomorrow evening. Your forecasts will be verified against the ETA's analysis of 700 mb vertical velocity at the valid times.