Even some of APEC's original architects are wondering how viable is such an ambitious enterprise. The goal is clear. In Indonesia in 1994, the leaders declared that they would achieve free trade and investment by 2010 for developed economies and 2020 for developing members. In Manila and Subic, the 18 leaders must agree on a plan to reach their targets. There are creeping doubts whether results can match aspirations.
Success can also work against the grouping.
There is a long queue for membership. The consensus format will likely be severely tested. Osaka was something of a watershed. With the Asian members taking the fore, the group asserted its determination to resist becoming a trade bloc and, despite the 2020 target, to allow each economy flexibility in achieving that goal. Manila and future meetings will bear out whether APEC can indeed command commitment without rules.