Some analysts suggest that at least the first murder spree of tukang santet in eastern Java was spontaneous. Practitioners of magic are often blamed for mishaps such as poor harvests, common during the recent drought. But political analyst Indria Samego accused some kiai of simulating attacks on themselves to revive lagging support from villagers, including against the tukang santet. Tukang santet cater to Javanese who mix Islam with Hindu, Buddhist, and animistic beliefs. Kiai represent the more orthodox strand of Muslims.
Religion plays a role in much of the violence, often coloring conflicts that are really political.
Tough draft laws on elections, which have yet to be passed, would force most of these parties to merge to get the required 1 million signatures. Orthodox Islam, which adopted dogma from Saudi Arabia in the 19th century and is popular in rural areas, will be represented mainly by Mr. Wahid. Modernist Islam, which is influenced by later innovations of Islam and appeals to workers and middle class in the cities, is divided, but Mr. Rais will likely get most of the modernist vote. That could be very dangerous,'' says Mr. Syafi'i. Many Indonesians insist that they are much less prone to religious strife than outsiders assume.