When the baby boomers start retiring around 2010, all hell will break loose. Still, the urge to tweak is strong and must be resisted. Well, the financial markets, for one. Also, Bill Clinton should care. But if Clinton wants a place in history, he has to take the lead on pushing much bigger change in Medicare.
Republicans are justifiably reluctant to do it themselves.
Without restructuring, the CBO calculates, Medicare costs will rise from 2.6 percent of the nation's GDP today to 7.5 percent in 2030 when an amazing 22 percent of the U.S. population will fall under the program. But restructuring would hold Medicare's share to 4.7 percent, a savings of trillions of dollars. Right now, Washington foots nearly the entire bill, within certain incredibly complicated parameters, when seniors get sick. One problem with this system is that the government never knows, from year to year, what the total cost will be. So Medicare money can't be appropriated by Congress, as, for instance, defense money is.