We do not expect wall street to really being covering this company until after mid-year. Between now and then, we expect Conseco to get a credit upgrade, pay down debt, and enhance equity. The equity enhancement comes from the conversion of a preferred stock into equity totaling 500M dollars plus what they will earn over the next 6 months. The final element is that there are over 60M shares short out of 330M shares. We think the shorts have a problem.
Risk is a very difficult concept since there is very little agreement as to what risk is.
Many define risk in terms of the volatility of a stock or portfolio relative to some index. But risk is broader than that. There is business risk that many people do not consider when evaluating a company. We attempt to control risk by selecting companies that are market leaders with strong balance sheets. In the long run, this tends to be a successful approach.