This medium term forecast represents a significant reduction from the trend growth rate of 5 per cent which we have been following for much of the present decade. The negative growth of 5.1 per cent last year has also reduced the entire base of the forecast. These forecasts imply that our Gross Domestic Product will not return to its 1997 level until 2001. Even so, we have been criticised for being over-optimistic. 15 Economic forecasting is not an exact science.
Nobody can claim precision in such an exercise.
Our open economy means that our economic growth is substantially influenced by events outside Hong Kong, and uncertainties remain. But I must emphasise that our forecast is the outcome of a conscientious and professional assessment and computation based on the available information. Over the years, our track record shows our forecast have been more accurate than most others. I am particularly disconcerted by the suggestion that we have inflated the forecast in order to boost public spending in the coming years. This is not the case.