The Republic's agriculture industry is highly dependent on exports. The chief economist at NCB Stockbrokers, Mr Dermot O'Brien, said Irish farmers produce 11 times more beef and veal than the domestic market needed and nine times as much butter. In addition, Irish food producers gained something of an advantage in the British market in the weeks since the disease struck there. The opposite can now be expected - and in markets beyond Britain. At home, economic confidence boils down to willingness to spend money.
People spend less when sporting, cultural and social events are cancelled and travel discouraged.
As against 11 per cent gross domestic demand growth last year, Mr O'Brien said an epidemic could take 0.75-1 percentage point from likely growth this year of 8 per cent. The reduction to 8 per cent from 11 per cent reflected knock-ons from slower growth in the US, he said. Similarly, the head of research at Goodbody Stockbrokers, Mr Colin Hunt, said a major epidemic could reduce growth in Gross National Product this year to 6.3 per cent from 7.7 per cent. If it doesn't it is going to take six to seven months from the date of the last outbreak to stamp it out. He said falling income from agriculture and tourism would be offset by tax cuts in last December's Budget, which will feed money back into the economy next month.