These probabilities imply an increased chance of an active start to the tropical wet season.
Similar probabilities apply in the southwest of Western Australia.
Indian Ocean temperatures, one of the inputs to the outlook, are the principal source of guidance in this release. Research as shown that small SOI values, such as these, at this time of year, point towards near normal tropical cyclone numbers during the following cyclone season. Sea temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean continued to cool during September, and despite the neutral SOI, are bordering on weak La Ni a conditions near the Equator. Off the Equator, the pattern of sea temperatures is not typical of La Ni a, which has a resulted in a near-neutral input to the Bureau's outlook system. Most of the available computer models are predicting neutral to weak La Ni a conditions in the Pacific Ocean during summer and early autumn.