A five percent chance of serving ten years in jail is about the same as a fifty percent chance of serving one year in jail. The bottom line for criminals is that crime is profitable. If crime wasn't profitable then it would cease to exist. The Business of Crime Anything that's profitable will attract highly organized businesses. Crime is no different.
Morality is a part of our calculation of the cost-benefit, but only part.
Morality, religious upbringing, the difference between right and wrong, can enter into a prospective criminal's benefit-cost consideration. For example, a prospective car thief might compare the value of a stolen car against a ten percent chance of spending ten years in jail and the possibility of spending eternity in hell. To some potential crooks the cost of eternal damnation is too much to overcome. For others, it's not. But for all, it's only part of the equation.