Raised from the ocean floor last August, the Hunley has surpassed its billing as historic puzzle, mystery thriller, artifact mine and scientific wonder all rolled into one 42-foot iron vessel. Despite a year of stock market reverses, the nation's economy has been remarkably resilient sofar this year, posting a record 40th consecutive quarter of growth. Some economists even predict that, with stimulus from recent interest rate reductions and the pending federal tax cut, the economy may emerge from its recent slowdown without ever entering a recession. If so, that would be truly remarkable. Alan Greenspan and other leading economists give credit for the sustained expansion to a new surge in the productivity of the American economy.
Productivity measures the amount of output per hour of work.
In a speech last week, Mr. Greenspan predicted that productivity will continue to rise, despite the economy's slowdown. While there may be some moderation in its growth because of a weaker economy, he said, the lull should be only temporary. His prediction adds weight to recent projections of rising government surpluses by the Congressional Budget Office and the President's Office of Management and Budget. That should reassure Americans worried that a tax cut will dissipate funds needed for Social Security and Medicare reform, and other priorities. Last week, before the Commerce Department report that the U.S. economy grew 2 percent from January through March after discounting inflation, the International Monetary Fund predicted a prolonged period of slow or no growth for the United States.