The ANWR 1002 Area was also divided into a western undeformed area, north of the Marsh Creek anticline, and an eastern deformed area, between the Anticline and the Brooks Range in the USGS evaluation. More than 80 percent of the resources considered are contained in the undeformed area. The subdivision of resources between the undeformed and deformed portions is not considered in this report. Method of Analysis Potential production from the Coastal Plain of ANWR is based on the USGS estimates of technically recoverable oil. Production schedules are created for the statistical 95 percent probability, mean, and 5 percent probability of recovering the volumes.
Production is scheduled for two development rates for each of the three probability estimates.
The annual development rate is not associated with field size but is an amount attributed to the wells drilled each year. Several large fields may be discovered in a year but only a portion is scheduled for production. Actual development in early years may exceed development in later years but a constant rate of development is assumed in this study. Production schedules are presented for 6 scenarios. A mid-case of 10.3 billion barrels is based on the statistical mean of the estimates.