Many scientists believe it is the most severe in the last 150 years. However, flooding is only one of the critical issues associated with the El Nino phenomenon. There is so much uncertainty about the potential impacts of this phenomenon that I believe it's imperative that Congress hear from the top U.S. scientists involved in El Nino predictions as well as from water and emergency response managers who must prepare for these events. The strongest El Nino ever recorded occurred in 1982-83. In some parts of the U.S., El Nino is associated with flooding while in others, droughts occur.
Water shortages can even occur in the flooding areas.
A miscalculation in where a storm will occur could mean water releases which will not be replaced later in the season. Such a phenomenon occurred in California to a lesser degree earlier this year. The problem could repeat itself on a larger scale with this El Nino. The 35 million people in California rely heavily on some 350 major resevoiurs for their urban and rural water supplies. The current predictions that Southern California and Arizona will receive greater rainfall this season are based on the probabilities from El Nino events earlier this century.