Soybeans probably have the greatest downside price risk. Wheat prices may hold up until late April or early May, but then begin a 10 to 15 percent drop from their March highs.
Many farmers are suspicious of the commodities markets and worried about their own skill in trading.
Adding to these farmers' dilemma is the fact that weather always can play havoc with crop price forecasts. The weather threat might have to be fairly large, however. 4.27 million durum acres, a 12 percent annual jump. A record-low 8.86 million or 9 percent fewer grain sorghum acres. At the same time, however, the nation's March 1 corn supply was the largest since 1988.