According to all opinion polls, the results will be extremely close on May 17th. There is almost certainly going to be a second round of voting for the post of prime minister, for which there are five candidates. Given the extreme proportionality and consequent fragmentation and complexity of Israeli politics, whichever of the parties wins, will have a major job to assemble a coalition. There may be strong pressure to create a national coalition between Likud and Labour in order to reach a speedy and definitive end to negotiations with the Palestinians. The politicians are well aware of some important trends among the electorate.
Recent polls show a clear majority of Jewish citizens in favour of a Palestinian state.
They have been convinced over recent years to contemplate the prospect more calmly, in the knowledge that whoever is elected has to ensure Israeli security requirements are provided for. The nearly one million-strong Russian immigrant community is skillfully positioning itself to benefit from such a close result and generally favours the peace process. Israeli politicians must also pay attention to the religious parties, which are having to fight more openly to maintain privileges and subsidies in an increasingly secular society growing impatient about many such practices. Arab citizens of Israel are expected to vote mostly for leftwing parties. Israeli politicians are also constrained by their international obligations and the growing desire to reach peace agreements with surrounding states.