The forecast consists of sixteen forecasts made from a combination of four weekly oceanic initial conditions and four atmospheric initial conditions within one calender month. 2-dimensional SST anomalies in the equatorial Pacific. The ensemble mean of all sixteen forecasts is shown by the solid curve. Ni o3.4 SST outlooks Comparison among the most recent forecasts and observation for Ni o-3 and Ni o3.4 SSTs. Such a comparison indicates the SST forecast continuity and how close to the observation the forecasts for the past seasons were.
Observation is plotted in black and forecasts are plotted in colors.
Curves of different colors represent the ensemble average of the forecasts initialezed from the same month. SST Anonymous ftp access to forecast SST anomaly data Further details on current conditions of El Nino and El Nino forecasts are found in Climate Diagnostics Bulletin from Climate Prediction Center . An Improved Coupled Model for ENSO Prediction and Implications for Ocean Initialization. Coupled model predictions of ENSO during the 1980s and the 1990s at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. Tellus, 46A, 398- 418.