Although observed fertility has reached historic lows in many developed countries and the percentage of women remaining childless is relatively high, it is likely that birth rates will not drop further and may even turn up. To support this conclusion, Bongaarts points to a puzzling discrepancy between expressed preferences for family size and measured fertility in most low-fertility societies. If women in a given country have the same number of children in their lifetime, but later in their lives than their predecessors, this will appear to be a reduction in annual birth statistics. Once women stop deferring births, the distortion disappears and the very low fertility rates observed in the developed world should rise closer to the 2 children most couples want. For example, in France the annual total fertility rate has been reported to be well below the replacement level since the mid-1970s, but in actuality French women who have reached the end of their childbearing years report having 2.1 births on average, close to the preferred number.
Similar discrepancies exist in many other developed countries.
In the U.S., fertility rose from 1.77 to 2.08 births per woman between 1975 and 1990 as the postponement of births stopped. It is therefore plausible to assume that fertility in Europe and Japan will not decline further and might even turn upward soon. Indifference is not one of them. A noted demographer, Dr. Bongaarts received two major awards from the Population Association of America and an award from the National Institutes of Health. He is Chairman of the National Academy of Science's panel on population projections.