The annual congressional vote to extend normal trade privileges to China has long been a vehicle for House members, in particular, to fulminate against Beijing's human rights violations. When Bill Clinton signed legislation last fall to permanently normalize trade relations with China, it was supposed to mark the end of such high-decibel congressional posturing. Robert Zoellick, Bush's trade representative, argues that the peaceful resolution of the spy-plane furor strengthens the president's hand. Now the president is wonderfully positioned to demonstrate that he had a pretty clear-eyed view of what that country is about. But the China vote, which had seemed a formality before the EP-3 went down, is now likely to force the White House to exercise its lobbying muscle in the House, which has always been a repository of protectionist sentiment.
Precedent suggests that the passions from one contentious trade vote tend to spill over to the next.
When Bush attends the Summit of the Americas in Quebec late next week, he intends to showcase his commitment to negotiate a hemispheric free-trade agreement by the end of his term in January 2005. But that far-reaching goal requires prompt congressional approval of Trade Promotion Authority. Normal trade relations with China will be difficult enough. But passing TPA will be far tougher. He also is considering combining in one omnibus congressional bill Trade Promotion Authority, the Jordanian accord, normal trade status for Vietnam and renewal of a reduced-tariff agreement with Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador and Peru.