Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, president from 1989 to 1997, sympathizes with the technocratic faction, most of whom are Western-educated and who value technological and economic development. Mohammad Khatemi, whose presidential term runs from August 1997 to 2001, comes from the left-wing faction. The factional alignment could reshuffle in the mid-term, as it has in the past. Given these trends, Iranian foreign and security policy over the next decade could head in one of three directions. Analysts generally think that any of the scenarios is quite possible.
Opinion is divided, however, about which is most likely.
While President Khatemi is a moderate on some matters, his main policy initiatives are likely to be on domestic politics, especially regarding life-style issues such as television, dress restrictions, and cultural freedoms in general. While this will be popular with the young, strong opposition from the traditionalists could lead to clashes, especially in the universities. Khatemi may also attempt economic reforms that could also stir resistance from the traditionalists. His busy domestic agenda makes any bold foreign policy initiatives unlikely. As a concession to the right wing, Khatemi may well continue Iran's dual track foreign policy of speaking about moderation while supporting those who seek to undermine regional security.