The problem is our initial false assumption of randomness. The rock and you arrived at that spot at that time by mechanistic processes. Probability theory fails when used improperly, as Baumgardner has done. Probability theory, like evolution theory, is valuable because it works under the appropriate conditions. Evolution theory explains the origin of species, but not the laws of gravity nor the origins of life.
Probability theory works for random processes, but has no applicability to deterministic events.
Nor does science address whether a creator created the necessary conditions for life to arise. These are questions outside science. Baumgardner should present his arguments to the science community. Spouting such nonsense is an affront to the readers of the Monitor. By the way, check the April 17 issue of the respected science journal Nature, p. 638, where Baumgardner is mentioned.