China might do the same, even if Russia were reconciled to a U.S. deployment. For years, China has pursued a strategic doctrine of minimum deterrence, relying on its 18 ICBMs that can reach the United States and destroy our major cities. We can tell Russia that 100 or 200 interceptors would not threaten its deterrent capability, but even our initial deployment would undermine China s deterrent. China is modernizing its nuclear forces, and some say that our deployment of a missile defense would not affect its decisions. It appears that intelligence analysts concluded, however, that a national missile defense would lead China to deploy still more warheads so as to maintain its nuclear deterrent.
Many outside experts foresee a ripple effect on India and Pakistan.
In addition, if China were to vastly increase its strategic nuclear forces, it might decide to MIRV its missiles. Some experts believe that to do that, China would resume nuclear testing. That would put a stake through the heart of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty and perhaps the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty as well. Allied reaction to our abrogating or withdrawing from the ABM Treaty could also be severe. Even when they understood our concerns, our allies told us that retaining the treaty was crucial.