The New York Times Magazine s Jim Frederick analyzed in Sunday s edition the way the big players in Internet sales predictions came up with their numbers. They do not come up with their estimates by actually monitoring online sales. Instead, they relied on polling. They asked people what they intend to spend online, and they asked retailers what they felt people would spend. The problem, Frederick points out, is that there really is no history upon which to draw to compile relatively accurate estimates.
Online sales are too new.
Without that history, both Jupiter and Forrester are taking shots in the dark. So, their guesses are educated, somewhat, but they remain guesses. It will be March or later before we know whether Texas cities and counties took in less in sales tax revenue during December. That would be one indicator of cybershopping. If the tax revenue is off, online shopping had an impact.