Republican Party affiliation in 1998 and 1999 stood at only 27 percent, after having climbed to 32 percent in 1995. Demo cratic Party identification has held steady at 34 percent, and 39 percent now call themselves independent. The Democratic advantage could translate into congressional gains in next year's elections, the Pew Center poll suggests. If the election were held today . . . But of course the election will not be held today.
People do change their minds, especially as they get to know candidates.
The real value of a detailed and careful survey of the electorate is that it shows how difficult it is to simplify American politics into right versus left, or even right, left, and center. This is the subject of Reading Mixed Signals. The Cantrils argue that sending mixed signals doesn't necessarily mean the public is mixed up or that its contradictions are due to a lack of information, or a sign of weak opinions. What the people have is a case of deep and persistent ambivalence. To say that 'the public' is pro or con on an issue may slight, if not miss entirely, the fact that sometimes people are both.