Hopefully, this example has made it clear how the strike probability calculation can help interpret the above forecast data. The following simplifying assumptions are made in the strike probability calculations. The errors in the forecast positions are assumed to be normally distributed. The errors in the forecast positions are assumed to be isotropic. The errors in the forecast positions are assumed to increase with time as the storm position is extrapolated further into the future.
Plane geometry is assumed.
No account is made for the land masses on the Earth's surface. The location is any text with a plus sign to represent a space.