The report affirms that the water project has now become a military, instead of a government, concern. Under the terms of a 1987 protocol Turkey had promised to supply a monthly average flow of 500 cubic meters per second at the Syrian border. Baghdad has calculated that the average flow of the Euphrates is approximately 1000 cubic meters per second and that Turkey, Syria, and Iraq should divide this water equally. As it now stands, unless some agreement is reached between the three states, each will tend to view the other as a threat to its water supply and, thus, to its national economy. Iraq, being the furthest downstream, it will probably be the most unwilling to seek any compromise.
Turkey currently has the upper hand.
Iraq cannot move its armed forces into northern Iraq without great risk from U.S. and British aircraft. Turkey is constructing as part of the Southeast Anatolia Project, as Turkey now possesses Patriot missiles with which to respond to any Iraqi threat. Nonetheless, the water allocation issue has been an irritant in the region for the last several decades, and probably will continue to cause controversy well into the future. In order to hold parliamentary elections, a census must be held in order to establish an electoral register. Herein lies the rub.