But I say that no responsible elected official can ignore all the research which tells us that if students cannot read by the third grade, they are destined to drop out of school. Educators now agree that students not reading by the third grade are unlikely to ever catch up. And when students don't catch up, they drop out. Tragic as it may sound, research clearly shows that if you tested the third grade class at APS in reading, you would be able to identify the 2,300 students who will eventually drop out of school over the next nine years. And among these 2,300 third grade students will be tomorrow's gang members, pregnant teenagers, drug users, criminals and unemployed workers.
Research confirms that dropping out of school is a gateway to all types of social delinquency.
In fact, third grade reading scores are so accurate in predicting future delinquent behavior, some states are now using third grade reading scores to project how many jail beds they will need in the future. But low reading scores are not just a problem for low-income neighborhoods. Throughout the state, there are 60 school districts with reading scores lower than APS' scores. Every year approximately one-third of our students drop out of school. Together, we started to this pilot project on a trial basis to demonstrate that early literacy is cost-effective and to prove that early literacy warrants statewide funding.