Well, it's hard to know. People ask me if Bill Clinton can be reelected, and I say yes, that is possible, because in politics 24 hours can bring events that make it seem like a lifetime. But if you were designing a scenario for a President's reelection this would not be it. He faces tremendous obstacles. And the Republicans have a great opportunity, but their own nomination picture is so murky at this point in mid-April 1995 that it is hard to see how that is going to shake out.
Predictions are risky.
I'll say this, though. Mr. Dole is, I think, endangered by the fact that the Republican Party has become even more conservative than it used to be in recent years. And the nominating elements of the party-that is, the political activists, the people that get out and beat the bushes in the primaries and form organizational cores and so on, are even more conservative than the party as a whole. And Mr. Dole has an awful lot on his record to suggest that he is not a conservative of their stripe. He may make it, but it won't be easy.