So the networks will be scrambling to lock up as much as possible of the remaining 35 to 40 percent of Internet advertising revenue. Softbank's Vanderlip talks about potentially grabbing as much as 25 percent, but Forrester analyst Jim Nail said it will more likely be about 10 percent. Analysts estimate that firms like DoubleClick and Softbank currently take about 40 percent off the top of an ad buy. But they expect that number to drop. They'll head down more toward 15 or 20 percent.
Sites grow in revenue, and leave the network.
DoubleClick's IPO filing dutifully warns potential investors about the company's reliance on the biggest sites in its network. That means a big hit if any of the major sites decide to pull out. To hedge against over-reliance on its ad network for income, DoubleClick offers an ad serving, tracking, and targeting service. A site can opt for the turnkey service without contracting DoubleClick to represent it - and forget about buying and maintaining its own ad management system. But the service is still an unproven revenue stream for DoubleClick.