Even if the heart of emu is political, supporters contend, it promises an economic payoff, too. Foreign exchange transaction costs would vanish. So would currency gyrations which drive up the D-mark, hurting German exports. Every minor national crisis will hit the euro. A shaky euro is the naysayers' greatest fear.
Officials say they've won plenty of safeguards.
The decision on which countries qualify will be made only in 1998, after the evidence is in. Treaty language will allow it and a handful of others to go ahead if they wish. Although all E.U. members agree in principle that virtue should be maintained inside the euro area, Germany wants to hit spendthrifts with tough fines, up to billions of dollars, and wants the procedure to be virtually automatic to forestall political deal-making. In all aspects the underpinning is stronger. The bad news is, euro countries, besides losing control of monetary policy in return for a seat in the ecb, would surrender much of their independence in budget matters as well.