Superstition and the regression effect. Review of elementary probability theory and methods to study the consistency and accuracy of probability estimates. Some systematic biases in everyday judgment. Learning to make judgments and use of Bayes Theorem. A Field Guide.
Scientists probe feelings behind decision making.
The construction of preference. Choice and the relative pleasure of consequences. Here we will stop to review what we have learned about both judgment and choice and put the pieces together in the framework provided by the Subjective Expected Utility Theory that underlies most theories in economics, political science, sociology, and psychology. Individual differences in decision making habits. Choices, Values, and Frames.