I n a far republic, a revolution finally topples the old regime. When others react defensively to such opportunism, a zealous faction within the revolution interprets the move as aggression and, in hopes of shoring up its domestic position, pushes for a military response. As the cautious neighbors prepare for battle, the faction's cocksure leaders gain power at home. Third-party diplomatic efforts only muddy the waters.
War looks inevitable.
Political scientist Stephen Walt knows the scenario inside and out. Wars, he notes, touched the new revolutionary republics of France in 1792, Russia in 1918, China in 1950, and Iran in 1980-each time preceded by a similar spiral of events. Walt sees a logic to the international conflicts that often follow the violent creation of a state. The newly established government and other powers exaggerate the threat that they pose to one other. Worse yet, they exaggerate the ease of a military solution to those threats.