Presidential campaigns do affect the outcome of elections.
The effects of presidential campaigns are systematic and predictable. These bold arguments, based on careful, reflective analysis of campaigns and previous studies of them, refute both the common wisdom of political scientists that campaigns do not matter and the implied belief of journalists, evidenced by their reporting every four years, that little else matters. Campbell s cogent thinking and clear style present students with a readable survey of presidential elections and political scientists ways of studying them. The book also shows how and why journalists have mistakenly assigned a pattern of unpredictability and critical significance to the vagaries of individual campaigns. This excellent election-year text provides a summary and assessment of the serious predictive models of presidential election outcomes, a historical summary of many of America s important presidential elections, and a significant new contribution to the understanding of presidential campaigns and how and why they matter.