In the US crime has been falling sharply while prison numbers quadrupled in 20 years. QED, said Howard, and used the US experience as his model. Zero tolerance in New York produced exactly the same crime drop as Houston, which has no such policy. He talks tough on prison but only whispers to the experts about the government's many measures that really might reduce the causes of crime. He has done nothing to create a better-informed electorate.
Research shows how abysmally little the public knows about sentencing policy.
They are easily whipped up to shout for harsher sentences, but when asked what they think the sentencing tariff is already, they underestimate prison terms by years. Asked to suggest an appropriate sentence for a specified crime, the great majority suggest a lower sentence while assuming it to be tougher than the current tariff. Straw complains about the damage done to people by fear of crime, diminishing and restricting the lives of children and old people, but he does nothing himself to assuage it. Indeed politicians are as much to blame as the lurid press for inflaming irrational fear. As a result people wildly over-estimate the danger of crime, especially of violence.