Presumably President Bush is aware of the following facts, published widely on US web sites, which influenced the decision on Kyoto. Sea level is separable from global temperature and has been following a rising trend for 10 and probably 18 thousand years since the peak of the last ice age. The rise has been about 7 inches in the last century. The impact has not yet been assessed, with some countries losing and some benefitting. Atmospheric temperature measured by balloons and satellites show little if any warming for the last 20 years.
Models predict more atmosphere than surface warming.
US and UK records on surface temperature show no appreciable warming after 1940 and some cooling to 1975. Projections of rising atmospheric temperature yield stylised facts based on models in which assumptions are more obscure and critical than the choice of baseline in statistical trends. In the short term, a decrease in NOx emissions leads to cooling because NOx plays a key role in the formation of tropospheric ozone, a greenhouse gas. But over the course of a decade, a decrease in NOx leads to a buildup of methane and ozone in the atmosphere. The authors, Oliver Wild and Hajime Akimoto of the Frontier Research System for Global Change and Michael Prather of the University of California, Irvine, found that while reducing NOx alone leads to long-term warming, reducing both NOx and carbon monoxide leads to cooling.