Internally, China remains a one-party dictatorship that represses the political, religious, and human rights of its 1.2 billion citizens. The State Department's annual human rights report stands as testimony to this reality. As Speaker Newt Gingrich made abundantly clear in his recent visit to China, these issues are major concerns of the United States. China's complexity, however, raises fundamental questions about its nature as an emerging great power and its relationship to the United States and the international system. There are, of course, no appropriate historical models.
Reality is much more complex.
In all likelihood, China's conduct will not be a predictable black or white, but some shifting shade of gray instead. It is likely to be both cooperative and assertive on a wide range of issues, undoubtedly seeking to shape, to its own advantage, the terms and conditions of its engagement with the world. This will complicate the lives of policymakers in Washington. But that outcome is not inevitable, and we must be prepared for other futures. Unfortunately, there is no bumper sticker for China policy.