The nation's largest telephone companies appear to be making steady progress in battling Y2K problems, according to the latest report from the President's Council on Year 2000 Conversion. Again, not everything is finished, but major disruptions in U.S. phone service now are considered unlikely. The international Y2K situation continues to be of great concern. Noted and reputable economists remain in sharp disagreement, with some predicting a marked decline in economic growth and others predicting little impact. I continue to side with those who think Y2K will cause enough disruption worldwide to significantly hinder the free flow of goods and services.
Much international trade is technologically dependent.
If computer-related disruptions occur overseas in the areas of production, processing, shipping, and telecommunications, resulting supply chain problems could take weeks to resolve. However, a recent report from the World Bank warned that the commodity mostly likely to fall victim to year 2000-related disruptions is oil. No one can predict how serious such oil disruptions might be, but winter traditionally is a time of high demand and low supply. Almost any disruption likely will have a quick upward effect on oil prices, creating ripples throughout the economy. All we know for sure is that problems are going to occur.