However, recent developments may be cause for some optimism. Dramatic reductions in murder in a number of large cities in the past two years, as much as 30 or 40 percent in a few, has lowered the national rate under that of ten years ago. In the first six months of 1995 it declined more than 12 percent nationally. Reports of other serious crimes have declined at a lower rate. Such a sudden drop in murder, both the ultimate and most accurately reported crime, has generated a debate about the reason.
Some criminologists believe the police can have little impact on crime.
Some police chiefs, notably Commissioner Bill Bratton in New York, take some credit for the current reductions, claiming improved methods make their officers more effective. A number of scholars argue that demographics control crime rates. When murders in Washington tripled from 1985 to 1990 demographics were not the cause. The police attributed the entire increase to a great surge in drug trafficker turf battles related to a crack cocaine epidemic. In any city a map showing poverty, unemployment, untreated addiction and alcoholism would look identical to one showing crime, especially violence.