Mudflows and some flooding could be expected in the Cathedral River valley north of the volcano. Airborne ash hazards to aircraft may be considerable if a large explosive event occurs but much less severe during a typical Strombolian phase. AVO has a seismic network of six stations near the volcano and will continue to monitor the volcano's eruptive activity. During the past week, periods of increased seismicity are interpreted to correlate with eruption of ash and bombs several hundred to perhaps 1,000 feet above the summit of the cone. Satellite imagery obtained over the past 24 hours, however, has detected no ash cloud in the vicinity of the volcano.
Visual observations continue to be hampered by poor weather.
Since the late 1700's, nearly 40 separate eruptions of Pavlof Volcano are known to have occurred, making Pavlof one of the most active volcanoes in Alaska. The eruptions then proceed as intermittent, low-level Strombolian activity with ejection of fluid lava spatter and small amount of ash and incandescent bombs to heights of usually less than 1,000 feet above the cone. This kind of low-level activity could continue for many months, punctuated by occasional more explosive events. Pavlof is located 600 miles southwest of Anchorage on the Alaska Peninsula. These towns could expect light ash fall depending on wind direction and level of eruptive activity.