In this study, we chose the optimal fracture length as the length where IDRI equals 2. This is a compromise of the various indicators typically used in the petroleum industry. As can be seen, determining the optimal fracture length can be fairly straight forward. We can view the fracture design and implementation process as a statistical distribution of possible outcomes. One such outcome might be a fracture design where the stress contrast is in error by 600 psi, and after pumping the treatment, the fracture is plugged with unbroken gel.
Probability distributions describe how often a particular stress error or fluid problem occurs.
Figure 4 and Figure 5 illustrate how technology application changes the probability distribution of potential fluid viscosity and in-situ stress contrast errors, focusing the most likely outcomes towards the optimal outcome. As an example, we show how technology application affects the expected revenue for the Travis Peak formation. We found that the 2- dimensional models usually overestimate the optimal length and result in treatment volumes that are smaller than the true optimal volume. Fracture treatments that are too large can also be designed for certain reservoir conditions. The differences can be so significant that either investment funds are omitted from worthy projects, or fracture treatment costs become unnecessarily large, sometimes to the point where the treatment is not profitable.