Higher surface moisture is preserved early in a no-till system as there is less evaporative loss under residue. The soil surface is also cooler under these damp conditions. All of these factors result in less total root growth and a more shallow placement of root growth in the no-till system. Any factor which results in low soil temperature during germination and establishment can result in slow crop development and a reduction in crop yield potential. This appearance in the top 13 to 18 inches indicates poor drainage critically-high in the root zone.
Poor drainage is a likely restriction on yield in that environment.
Economic goals by definition are intended to optimize economic return. As such these goals factor in the potential for other crop system variables such as climate, weed control, insect pest pressure, etc. to be more limiting to yield than is soil fertility in a given year.