First, a concern about the time, and therefore, the cost involved. Second, a concern about the relevance of the outcomes. There are no right answers for these concerns. As we all remember, the seriousness of the consequence in that scenario was extremely high. In higher education, we are faced with future potentials that could have the same level of seriousness of consequence for our institutions if we do not begin to look at our mental models of the future.
Scenario planning is many things.
However, it will not give higher education answers. It will not enable us to make better predictions. Scenario planning will give us the opportunity to explore and, perhaps, expand our mental models of what the future could be and what we can do as it approaches. Scenario planning will provide the opportunity to ask the questions that will need to be asked if we are to become better at planning for our future. Overcoming Organizational Defenses.