The industry had trimmed the size of the breeding herd on Dec. 1 by 4 percent, and even greater liquidation is expected this winter. This will drive pork supplies down by the fall of 1999. Since the survey was completed around Dec. 1, most of those hogs were slaughtered in December or early January.
Producers plan further farrowing cutbacks.
Winter farrowing intentions were down 1 percent and spring intentions were down 7 percent. There is concern, Hurt says, that the report didn't fully account for the huge slaughter in November and December. The concern is that more sows were in the herd last spring than USDA has accounted for. If the rate of increase in slaughter does not begin to slow by mid-January, the market will be forced to reject the data as a bad inventory count, and hog prices could remain in the teens for months. There were so many hogs coming to market that packers could about name the price they would pay.