U.S. firms are investing billions of dollars, primarily in the Azeri offshore and Kazakh Tenghiz fields. The problem is how to get the oil and gas to market from the landlocked Caspian countries. Commercial rationale alone would seek outlets to the south, via Iran or Afghanistan. Turkmenistan in the east, and Turkey in the west. While the Kazakh pipeline will carry most of that country's projected oil capacity, additional major pipelines will be needed, especially for Azeri oil and Turkmen gas.
Many routes are under discussion, with framework agreements signed for several routes.
Adding more capacity to those pipelines raises fears of excessive dependence on Russia. Plus economics dictate that Caspian oil going through Russia would probably go to Black Sea ports, from where it would be carried by ship. That could create problems in the increasingly crowded Bosporus Straits. Turkey is lobbying vigorously for pipelines across its territory to the Mediterranean. Recommendations Maintain the U.S. commitment as the ultimate guarantor of security in the Persian Gulf, while beginning a dialogue with Europe about a fairer sharing of security responsibilties.