Early last year, during the impeachment battle, the surveys showed Republicans consistently lagging by 10 points. But it's still a tossup. That is an average number of retirements, but it is in sharp contrast to the Democrats, who have only seven. But as the matchups in many races have become clear, analysts agree that there are fewer than a dozen truly competitive races. The Cook Report concludes that only two of those open seats are leaning toward changing hands, and both are Democratic seats seen as likely to go Republican.
Republicans point to several twists that have gone their way in the past two months.
First, Rep. Virgil Goode, D-Va., announced in January that he would become an independent, but would align himself with Republicans. Then Rep. Owen Pickett, another Virginia Democrat, announced he would retire. Republicans have already recruited a strong candidate for that district, while Democrats are still scrambling. In addition, a seat in Pennsylvania, now filled by Rep. Ron Klink, a Democrat who is vacating the seat, is also vulnerable. The Pickett and Klink seats are the sole open seats that Cook rates as leaning toward changing hands.