Otherwise the residual plots reveal nothing to suggest a poor fit. However, since there is additional variation in the responses than predicted by the model, caution is warranted if attempting to use the model to make predictions of U.S. hurricanes. The extra-Poisson variation suggests that the model is missing important additional covariates. Next we examine the evolving ENSO-hurricane relationship on multidecadal timescales. Deviance difference values corresponding to p-values of 0.05 and 0.01 are indicated by horizontal lines.
Results show multidecadal variations in the strength of the ENSO-hurricane teleconnection.
However, values are higher again during the last five to ten 50-year windows indicating a recent return to a stronger teleconnection. A similar curve is noted with SOI as the covariate, although the deviance differences are generally lower. Here we demonstrate a linkage between the strength of the ENSO-hurricane teleconnection and the variability of ENSO itself. Figure shows that this is indeed the case. Tropical Pacific SST values were warmer during the earlier pentads then cooled before warming again more recently.