M.A. Wise, and C.N. MacCracken. 1994. Pacific Northwest Laboratory, Richland, Washington. The adoption of assumptions regarding advanced energy technologies were shown to have a profound effect on the future rate of anthropogenic climate change. The cumulative effect of the five sets of advanced energy technologies is to reduce annual emissio ns from fossil fuel use to levels which stabilize atmospheric concentrations below 550 ppmv, the point at which atmospheric concentrations are double those that existed in the middle of the eighteenth century.
Methodology plays a less important role in explaining differences.
The single most important question is whether or not the advanced energy supply technologies described in Cases 2 through 6 will be available in the quantities and at the costs assumed in this study. While all energy technologies introduced in Cases 2 through 6 play roles in reducing future fossil fuel CO2 emissions, the introduction of advanced biomass energy production technology plays a critical role. The problem of emissions reduction becomes one of technology development and d eployment in this case, and not one of fiscal and regulatory intervention. Because SO2 has a cooling effect on the atmosphere, policies which reduce fossil fuel use are not as effective as a simple greenhouse calculation might imply. The proper treatment of SO2 is therefore an important consideration in the analysis of climate c onsequences of technology development and deployment.