The nationalists warn that a PP victory will embolden terrorists and jeopardize the chances of a peaceful end to the conflict. The PNV, which negotiated the 1998 cease-fire with ETA's political wing, Herri Batasuna, blames its collapse on the Spanish government's refusal to talk to the perpetrators. The PP refuse to enter a political dialogue to solve a political problem. But even among its base of moderate nationalist supporters, the PNV commands little confidence that it can snuff out the terrorist threat, or even control the street vandalism regularly committed by young ETA sympathizers. The trouble for the PNV is that a growing number of Basques, wearied by years of terror waged in the name of autonomy, reject separatist aims.
Polls often underestimate the strength of non- nationalist support.
Still, a non-nationalist triumph will not soon spell the end of the Basque struggle against violence. Some observers like Landaburu fear a Popular Party victory could prompt a fresh killing campaign. It would force the PNV into opposition and allow them to claim the country is being governed by the enemy. Many pro-PP Basques are prepared to take the risk. But I think change is more possible than ever.