Invalidity often stems from the systematic biases of retrospective memory, which I also investigate. Whatever skills I've developed, I believe that some should be devoted to the problem of education and behavior change to stem the HIV epidemic. In order to perceive order in a context of chaos, it is usually necessary to know where to look, although still saving some regard for the 13 percent luck. How Pseudoscientists, Lunatics, and the Rest of Us Fail Think Rationally . Rational Choice in an Uncertain World.
Psychological science can improve diagnostic decisions.
Behavioral decision making, judgment, and inference. Printed in paperback, September 1996. Social dilemmas, economic self-interest and evolutionary theory.