This is an outline of a presentation made at a conference on religion and violence sponsored by the Crisis Incident Response Group of the FBI and the Center for the Study of New Religions in Fredericksburg, Virginia, June 7, 1999. Conclusions about the interacting dynamics of millennialism, persecution, and violence drawn from case studies.
Religion involves ultimate concern.
Believers are not likely to give up their ultimate concern in response to tactical pressure. Catastrophic millennial beliefs are tied to feelings of being persecuted. A sense of being persecuted increases catastrophic millennial beliefs and also the potential for violence. The quality of interactions between believers and outsiders is crucial in determining the potential for volatility. Confrontational tactics on the part of law enforcement agents, reporters, anticultists, and others can have the unintended effect of enhancing volatility.