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Non-members can purchase articles at the NABE Document Store online. Although the achievements over the past three hundred and fifty years in the measurement of risk are extraordinary intellectual leaps, these mathematical innovations are merely instruments. Risk is about how we make decisions and only incidentally about the math we employ to reach those decisions. The consequences of our decisions must always dominate the probabilities. Leibniz taught us that no model has an R 2 of 1.00 so beware of those who tell us we know more about the long run than the short run.