Taiwan already owns two Dutch submarines and its navy is thought to want either Dutch or German boats. Both Holland and France endured years of rage and unofficial sanctions from Beijing, provoked by the sale of the submarines and Mirage fighter jets and Lafayette destroyers. Both countries ended up signing pledges never to arm Taiwan again, though those could presumably be sidestepped if America offered to assemble European-made parts. One option could be for European manufacturers to band together, making it harder for China to impose sanctions. But they do nothing to help Taiwan with one of its main fears - the banks of missile batteries that China is building on its coasts overlooking the Taiwan Straits.
Most analysts agree that a Chinese invasion is unlikely in the near future.
China has neither the ships nor the air support to transport an invading army across the straits. China has spent heavily on Russian ships to build up its largely unimpressive navy. It has 60 to 70 conventional and nuclear submarines, but most of them are in poor or lethal shape. Until the package announced yesterday is delivered, Taiwan only has four submarines, two of which date from the Second World War.