Although skeptical, Professor Lichtman agreed, and the two published their conclusions in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, in 1981. In 1992, however, they parted company, as deCell called the election for Bush in July, while Lichtman insisted that Ross Perot would re-enter the race and tip the sixth and decisive key to Clinton. The third-party key turns if the candidate gets five percent or more of the vote. With the money and publicity he had, Perot was a good bet to do that if he came back in. If anybody can do it, no one has to ask me.
Presidential elections are essentially approval votes on how the incumbent party has been doing.
The people and the process are basically sensible. The administration's real achievements and disappointments determine the outcome. Campaigns don't matter. He is quick to add, however, that this conclusion applies only to the range of campaign activities that have actually occurred. Every campaign raises money, mobilizes party organizations, deploys volunteers and advertises widely in the communications media.