So when word leaked out of the Vatican that Cardinal Jerome Murphy-O'Connor of Westminister had made a powerful speech asking for more participatory government in church affairs, more substantial synods of bishops, and a convocation of all churches, that he would suddenly be seen as potential pope material. But one headline-grabbing speech doth not a pope make. Who will succeed John Paul II will be decided in secret after a long internal preselection process full of intrigue, lobbying and deal-making. In considering candidates, health and age are important because of the rigours of the job. No-one wants a pope around for that long, so the ideal age may be nearer 70.
Nationality is also important.
Someone from a powerful nation such as the United States or Germany would face the suspicion that his decisions were influenced by his country's interests. Surprisingly to many, a key factor will be what the cardinals perceive as necessary to complete but also counterbalance the work of John Paul. Moreover, those too close to John Paul, such as his Secretary of State, Angelo Sodano, will become outsiders on his death. There has been speculation that, after the first non-Italian pope in more than 400 years, the electors will seek a black one. But it seems more likely that, after the gamble on John Paul II, electors will revert to an Italian familiar with the Vatican, or look to the most Catholic continent, Latin America.