Venezuela's new production comes largely from infill-drilling in old heavy oil fields, which is dependent on the amount of effort and investment. It does not sound as if it has many shut-in wells either. Its oilmen now speak of reduced capacity. Norway and Mexico continue to support OPEC within the framework of such conciliatory words, making a virtue of necessity. The market takes the hint and marks down the price of oil in an action that feeds on itself as the new 'flavour' of the month permeates the ranks of speculators, hedge funds and derivative specialists searching for a quick buck.
Refiners hold back from filling their tanks.
People relax in the belief that the wolf has headed back into the forest. The famous flat-earth economists again cheer that market forces reign supreme. But then a few weeks later, people begin to notice that fewer tankers are arriving. The penny finally drops that there is no instant spare capacity in the sense of shut in wells. The men at their screens start marking up prices.