In fact we know at least as much about Vladimir Putin as we knew about Mikhail Gorbachev in 1985. We know substantially more about his aims. Consequences there are bound to be. In one fundamental respect, the emerging conventional wisdom is correct. But it would be ironic if, in embracing this wisdom, we lost our perspective.
Perspective begins in recognising that Russia has become cynical about the West.
Since the end of the Cold War, history has been made in Europe, but it has not been made by Russia, let alone in partnership with it. To that country's political establishment, it is axiomatic that Nato enlargement is designed to isolate Russia. The timing and ferocity of the Chechen war owe much to Kosovo. Perspective also requires us to recognise that the West ranks but third in Mr Putin's priorities. His overwhelming priority is to reverse Russia's decline and restore vertical power.