Many also predicted Steven Spielberg was a shoo-in for best director, and Tom Hanks and his palsied hand were ready to clutch the best actor statue. Six months later, the industry is re-evaluating. Suddenly the other studios have caught Oscar frenzy. Advertising is beginning to get feverish. This year, I think there's one surefire nominee and everybody is gunning for those other slots.
People have an affection and passion for the film.
This year, history is not likely to repeat itself. Searchlight's Van Galder says a late opening is much better, come awards season, because the pics are still fresh in the voters' minds. This year, nobody in Hollywood can decide which kind of year this is. And 1998 is a balance of studios and indies, making it hard to cite a recent precedent for voting trends. Media mavens often cite critics lists, the Globes and guild awards as bellwethers for the Academy Awards.