The first scenario, that of dueling it out with Washington for world supremacy, is the easiest one because it would mean the continuation of the Cold War pattern, replacing the former Soviet Union with China or Japan. Anti-Japanese resentment on economic issues is still vivid in the United States, meaning public opinion could easily replace Soviet bombers with a Japanese threat. U.S.-Japanese relations experience regular periods of tension on economic issues because in some sectors they fight to be the world leader. Anti-Chinese feelings in the Unites States range from denunciation of human rights violations to unconditional support for Taiwan, Tibet, and Chinese dissidents. Economic disputes include copyright piracy, wheat exports and the general opening or not of the Chinese market to U.S. products.
Many obstacles make an effective Sino-Japanese partnership unrealistic at first glance.
China and Japan have opposite political systems and they share a painful past. Yet, if one looks back on the so-called 'Asian miracle,' one year ago the regional financial crisis and the collapse of the South Korean economy seemed unrealistic. The decision is in the hands of both Beijing and Tokyo. But Tokyo has a longer way to go to integrate with China because it feels more vulnerable, economically and militarily. When Jiang Zemin and Japanese Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi meet next week, they will both have to put their pride aside if they are committed to make the Sino-Japanese relations a new power hub in the next century.