His informed guess was that the transition to a market economy in Cuba can take place relatively rapidly. I accept this. Learning to shift from a constricted, inward-looking, controlled economy, whether of the type that exists in Cuba or, say, the Ukraine, to one that can thrive in a globalized world structure, is not simple. I am convinced, however, that Cuba is better situated to make this transition than was the Ukraine. This has much to do with neighborhood.
Outside influences come to Cuba mostly from the Western world.
Castro has been in power for a long time, but it is unlikely that he has erased all the earlier cultural conditioning. The countries in the former Soviet Bloc that fared best, the Czech Republic and the Baltic states, for example, had comparable western influences before Stalin. The states that made up the former Soviet Union had fewer Western influences and their conditioning from the harsh Soviet system penetrated more deeply in their thinking - into their souls. It will take repression to hold back Cuban initiative once Castro leaves the scene. The other reason for my guarded optimism is that if Cubans can avoid internal conflict after Castro departs, much investment there is likely to come from the United States.