In other words, clearly understand what you can and can't risk. If interest rates are falling, and you decide to take a risk by floating with the market, aim for a lower rate that seems attainable. The key to success in this situation is to be realistic. And attempting to land the lowest rate can backfire because when rates bottom out, they rebound upward quickly and you could end up higher than you'd like. A rate trend can indicate the direction rates are headed, whereas daily rate fluctuations, by themselves, can be misleading if you lose sight of the big picture.
Many local newspapers have solid business news sections.
It is probably not a good idea to depend too much on the thin coverage of TV news, with the exception of a few cable business news programs that interview interest rate experts. Don't forget the Internet. If you can spend the time, there is a huge amount of information available, and most of it is free. Overall, when dealing with all of this information, remember to keep your focus on the general opinions regarding interest rate trends. Don't get lost in the specifics of all the government reports and statistics.