In attempting to keep Aceh within the Indonesian fold, both Habibie and Abdurrahman Wahid have demonstrated great willingness to offer concessions to Islam. President Wahid has held out the possibility of a referendum, not on independence but on syariah law. He has also focused most of his attempts at negotiation on the ulama . Clearly, the aim is to split the Islamic leadership away from the students, GAM and other pro-independence forces. GAM GAM, the third group, represents both a strength and a weakness of the Acehnese struggle.
Most observers estimate it has several hundred armed combatants in the field.
It has demonstrated a capacity to damage the army and police, although mostly in ambushes involving a few gunmen. Numerous flag-raising ceremonies culminated in large shows of strength for the GAM anniversary last December. The organisation also has the capacity to bring Aceh to a halt by ordering transport and public service strikes. It is led by Hasan di Tiro, an exile from Aceh for over four decades, who claims descent from Aceh's sultans and whose health is reportedly fragile. The organisation appears to be deeply factionalised, with incessant squabbling among the major groups in exile.