In a less divisive political environment, a compromise probably could have been achieved. The consequences of the Senate vote are all too often exaggerated. As the opponents correctly point out, the test ban treaty was never going to be a cure-all. No paper pledge can end nuclear proliferation by itself, and the countries most likely to acquire nuclear weapons are the ones least likely to abide by the treaty's strictures. At the same time, the established nuclear powers continue to abide by the informal test ban that has been in place since the early 1990s.
None looks poised to resume testing.
But on the whole the test ban's defeat does represent a missed opportunity to advance U.S. interests. The treaty also would have made it easier for the United States to detect clandestine nuclear explosions. It would create a worldwide monitoring system, including sensors in countries such as Russia, China, and Iran that are closed to U.S. intelligence. And nuclear tests have only limited value in checking the safety and reliability of the U.S. nuclear arsenal. The U.S. weapons laboratories estimate that less than 1 percent of the defects found in the weapons stockpile have been uncovered through testing.