The size of Asia's rice lands is shrinking, under pressure from industrialization and urbanization. In China, the area under rice fell from 37 million ha in 1976 to 31 million ha in 1996. Further, soil salinization, waterlogging and other degradation associated with intensive rice cropping may lead to a net drop in Asia's total irrigated area. Over the next 25 years, the balance of uncropped land will be halved in South Asia and reduced by one-third in East Asia. The quantity and quality of water available for rice growing is also expected to decline.
Rice farmers face declining profit margins.
Since the beginning of the '90s, a stagnant yield frontier and diminishing returns to further intensification have pushed up production costs. In Bangladesh, for instance, trials consisting of three and two rice crops a year with three fertilizer treatments showed yield declines for each treatment over a period of 10 years. But some temporary decreases are often confused with yield decline. One case in central China was found to be due to unsuitable varieties and inadequate use of organic matter, while in India causes identified ranged from cyclones to the removal of fertilizer subsidies. To better understand the phenomenon, the consultation recommended systematic studies to quantify deceleration, stagnation and decline processes and delineate affected areas as accurately as possible.