Since the market has little, if any uptrend during these periods, one might expect that momentum-based strategies will fare particularly poorly during these periods. The current secular bull market had lasted close to 18 years through the beginning of 2000. The average length of a secular bull market is about 14 years, so this secular bull had already lasted longer than average. Two previous secular bull markets lasted 20 years, however, so 18 years is not unusually long. We would like to develop an estimate of when this secular bull market might end.
R is assumed equal to real index value for the initial year.
The index price is also converted to constant dollars. It certainly appeared that the secular bull market could not continue on much longer. This was the situation at the beginning of 2000. Since then we all know that the stock market peaked in March 2000 and has begun a serious bear market correction since then. The Stock Cycle analysis suggests that this was the end of the secular bull market that began in 1982.