Specifically, the study looks at the effects of parity and age of the youngest child on divorce probabilities controlling duration of marriage, and the effect of marital status and the duration since divorce on parity-specific birth probabilities. Generally, controlling for other demographic covariates tends to change the usually considered bivariate associations between childbearing and divorce. For instance, when considering marital duration divorce probabilities are highest for childless women and lowest for women with two or three children, whereas the bivariate perspective shows a peak for parity one women. The primary reason is the strong decrease of fertility which leads to a decline in the share of the younger age groups. As the average life expectancy is on the increase, this will further contribute to the growing share of the aged population.
Population aging bring on new challenges in community planning and social policy.
The estimate of the number of pupils is based on the 1991 population prognosis made by the Central Statistical Office of Finland. The actual education expenditures per pupil has been calculated for different levels of education in 1980-1990. In the future only real labor costs per pupil are assumed to increase. They will increase at the average rate of the labor productivity growth in the economy. Although the school age population will clearly diminish, the real education expenditures will increase by one thirds up to 2030 in Finland.