A decade ago when I began collecting seriously 'the' author to collect was Ian Fleming. This still holds true to a degree. The case in point has always been the first James Bond book, 'Casino Royale', of which 4,750 copies were printed in the first edition. As Connolly points out in his book, most of these would have gone to public libraries. This is true in respect of all first editions in hardback.
Most public libraries have a standing order for all novels from reputable publishers.
A good example for Australian collectors might be Bryce Courtenay's first novel, 'The Power of One'. Only a couple of thousand were printed in, I think, 1989. It's quite usual for an author to hit the big time with his or her second, rather that his or her first novel. Many authors have more than one book with an agent or publisher. Publishers are generally conservative in outlook.