The study concludes that China s imports will rise to record levels over the next decade before stabilizing by 2020. Baseline projections see China s total demand for grain at 450 million metric tons in 2000, rising to 513 million metric tons in 2010 and 594 million metric tons by 2020. It does seem likely, however, that China will become a more important player in world grain markets as an importer in the coming decades. . . . Ultimately though, Huang, Rozelle, and Rosegrant conclude that China s grain balances will depend on decisions made by Chinese policymakers rather than on natural resource constraints. As the report shows, China s level of investment in agriculture will determine how much grain it will be buying on world markets.
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