The actual numbers of breast cancer deaths is expected to remain fairly constant, and breast cancer will remain the second most common cause of cancer death in Scottish women. Prostate cancer is projected to become the commonest cancer in men, with the numbers of cases more than doubling. Over half of the cases are predicted to occur in patients aged over 75 at diagnosis. The much smaller increase in numbers of deaths is likely to be due to a combination of an increased detection of non-lethal tumours and some improvement in treating men with tumours which might have become life threatening. The risk of colorectal cancer is predicted to increase in males over the next decade, with a small increase in females.
Mortality is predicted to decrease due to continuing improvements in survival.
Ovarian cancer has become increasingly common in Scotland. This will not translate into a reduction in the numbers of cases as the numbers of older women, those at most risk of ovarian cancer, are increasing. The mortality rates and numbers of deaths are, however, both declining due to the change in incidence patterns and continuing improvements in survival. Head and Neck cancers comprise a heterogeneous group of tumours which, taken together, are increasing in incidence in males, and are predicted to be the fifth most common tumour group by 2010-14. Incidence of Melanoma skin cancer is also predicted to increase substantially in both males and females, continuing the dramatically increasing trend that has been seen historically.