But that American projection supposes increasing fertility and immigration, which is dubious. Like Mexico, there are already 21 nations from the LDR that have fertility rates below the replacement rate, including China, Thailand, Cuba, both North and South Korea and Kazakhstan. Yet a U.N. projection protocol mindlessly precludes an above-replacement LDR country from declining below replacement and, moreover, projects those that have back toward replacement. Brazil's fertility fell from 6.25 children per woman to 2.25 in 40 years. The U.N.'s sin is not that it uses screwy projections.
Projections are tricky.
And so the U.N. tells us that the world population will rise from about 6 billion to about 9 billion and keep growing, instead of a more likely course of going from 6 billion to about 8 billion, and declining. There is a big difference between growing and declining. Reporting growth when the likelihood is decline buries the lead, and obscures the truth. You may comment by clicking here.