Since most handicappers apply a combination of factors when analyzing games, it is not easy to critique methodology. It is even more difficult to critique oneself, and make corrective measures. First, let's examine novice handicappers and the mistakes they often make. The average sports bettor listens to sports talk radio, reads the sports pages of his local newspaper, and handicaps games largely based on personal sentiment. Trouble is, his selections are usually grounded in public perceptions and misperceptions of teams and players.
Most novices play the favorites, and bet OVER the total.
When games are analyzed, it is often wrong or based on hopelessly outdated information. I suspect that if you or I could just read the daily sports page and then somehow quantify going against this public sentiment, we would all be very rich, indeed. Players that follow sportswriters or TV prognosticators are a hopeless cause. The most common mistake made by more serious handicappers is prioritizing the wrong factors when analyzing games. For example, let's say the Utah Jazz are playing at Orlando tonight.