Thus the future of the Good Friday agreement, the peace process, and David Trimble's leadership hang in the balance. Faced with such daunting opposition, other political leaders might find a way of implementing their plans without throwing themselves at the mercy of an unpredictable and anxious membership. Tony Blair, of course, made an exception when he had to rid his party of the cumbersome Clause IV which committed the old Labour party to its unelectable socialist agendas. He would do everything in his power to avoid such a scenario. So too would Gerry Adams.
Political leaders sleep soundly in their beds only when secure in the knowledge they can always win.
Mr Trimble, supremely calm and collected these days in the face of crisis, a skill he learned only in the later years of his captaincy of the UUP, does not have the appearance of a man who has been losing much sleep, but doubts still linger. It is difficult to evaluate whether Gerry Adams helped or hindered the UUP leader's campaign by remarkably telling his republican brothers and sisters that Mr Trimble has played a central role in winning the IRA over to the peace accord. Hell isn't such a bad place. It is difficult also to predict what influence has been exerted on the party membership by the Northern Secretary, Peter Mandelson. He has run the gauntlet of derision with a fair measure of alacrity while being introduced to the particularly vicious brand of personal insult in which Ulster country folk excel, as he did the rounds of the constituency associations with Mr Trimble.