I sure think so. I'm not really sure, but here's what I think. I don't think this is a rebellion thing, because it is inconsistent in occurance but consistent in performance. Also, I do not believe horses are capable of punishing people for grievances. They merely have reactions to specific occurrances.
People are the ones who attach human justification to the actions.
He could have a pinched nerve. He could have knee problems. And even though your farrier says his feet won't hurt, they very well could. The farrier could have inadvertently performed a lameness check on the horse by holding the leg up to work on the hoof, which could have pinched a nerve. Nothing against the pros, they just don't see the same things in their practice I see in mine.