If this initial deployment is successful, the U.N. will consider the next phase, which could involve 20,000 to 30,000 peacekeepers. In a private briefing to Congress, senior U.S. officials handicapped the chances of success at only 50 percent. And even that could be optimistic. Many Congo watchers question whether any side is truly ready for peace, given repeated accusations of cease-fire violations, executions, and massacres. Despite these obstacles, the Security Council is likely to approve the Congo mission.
Nobody wants to be seen denying Africa a chance at peace, even if the odds are poor.
After enduring criticism that the United States has discriminated against Africa by supporting massive peacekeeping operations only in places like Kosovo, the Clinton administration is actively pushing the Congo mission. Perhaps the strongest impetus has come from memories of inaction during the 1994 Rwandan genocide. Still, U.S. officials rule out providing logistical help that might speed up the U.N. deployment, let alone offering any troops. In fact, none of the 15 Security Council members that would approve the Congo mission is expected to contribute troops. Skeptics fear the U.N. is once again being set up to fail.