This article includes tips on how to read polling data, within the context of how margin of error and polling samples work. This article, written during the 1996 election, describes how margin of error may explain polling data disparity.
Margin of error is one of the most difficult statistical concepts to understand.
Simply stated, a margin of error states pollsters' confidence in the data they have collected. In fact, margin of error is based solely on a mathematical formula. Pollsters have been checking public opinion since the beginning of the century. Over time, mathematicians began to see patterns that would reoccur each time polling was done. Mathematical formulas designed to analyze statistics are the result of those observations.