We have one poll that shows it as an even race and the other 10 showing Bush leading. What we are looking at is a high likelihood, but not a certainty, that George W. Bush will be elected president tomorrow. In the meantime, he lost it and got it back. I think since the debates ended, Bush has been ahead, if you measure it by averaging the tracking polls. I think that the underlying factors that favor Bush have continued to operate in that period.
People prefer consensus to confrontation.
His unfavorable rose after the first debate and have continued very high. More voters prefer smaller government. Al Gore with his people vs. the powerful campaign is headed for a larger government. What I think really motivates the candidates is the desire to do everything they can lest they wake up the morning after the election and find themselves a few votes short. I note that George W. Bush today has stops in Tennessee and Arkansas, Gore's and Clinton's home states, where he seems to have a good chance to win.