Skill assessment strategies for screening regression predictions based on a small sample size. Preprints, Thirteenth Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences. Figures Figure 1. Contours are estimated probability anomalies of the specified tercile. Shaded areas deliniate the area of correlation skill greater than 0.3.
Plotted numbers are station values of the standardized anomaly.
Distribution of skill for the 1-mo lead regression forecast for JAS 1996 temperatures. The values shown are for the correlation between forecast and observation for the 1955-1995 period. Same as Fig. 1 except for precipitation forecasts. Same as Fig. 2 except for precipitation skill.