We expect the markets to ignore further warnings and bad news while all hope turns to the Fed. Reports considered Fed friendly for significant rate cuts could see the start of a three-session rally until the swelling rumors become news. But that will be conversation best left for our next visit here together. Ratio listed is percentage of calls to puts or puts to calls respectively. Support is factored from dividing puts by calls at strike levels beneath index closing price.
Resistance is factored from dividing calls by puts at strike levels above current closing price.
Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs and commercial traders of index futures contracts on the Chicago Board Of Trade. Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the correct side of future trend changes while small specs are not. Extreme divergence between each signals a possible market turn in favor of the commercial trader's direction. In the last two weeks the Commercials have added more than two percent to the short side, this is significant considering they had been holding around the twelve percent range for several weeks.