But there appear to be a number of problems just over the horizon that will likely block the fulfillment of Russia's high hopes for the ex-KGB operative from St. Petersburg. Since last November, Russia's general staff has promised imminent victory. The war is more likely recruiting another generation of Chechen warriors. Meanwhile, remaining combat-ready Russian army units are gradually being destroyed. A guerrilla war is now in full swing and the helicopter gunships and fighter-bombers that the Russians used to great effect early on are literally being worn out.
Replacement parts are hard to come by, as is, periodically, fuel.
Available munitions stockpiles are likewise being used up and seasoned officers and pilots are being lost. Meanwhile, draft dodging is increasing, forcing Putin to call up reserves, and the Chechens are reportedly planning a series of counterattacks for spring. Moscow is quietly contacting Chechen President Aslan Maskhadov about peace talks, Putin's advisors reportedly urging him to get out now, even as other officials have begun dropping hints that the Kremlin is ready for a negotiated settlement. Instability in the Caucasus will continue with ethnic conflicts festering in Northern Ossetia, Ingushetia, Dagestan, and Karachay-Cherkessiya. So much for security.