According to the USDA study, closing the gap between available food and the nutritional needs of people in developing countries in 2007 would require 24 million metric tons of food, while just maintaining their current consumption levels would require 18 million metric tons. As it stands, food aid is unlikely to supply more than a fraction of the necessary amounts. Although the total for 1998 may be higher, owing to a combination of multiple emergencies and surpluses resulting from low exports to economically troubled Asian countries, in future years food aid is likely to continue to face downward pressure. It also depends on whether food aid is accompanied by sound policies and broader forms of aid that can help people in developing countries achieve sustainable livelihoods. Shahla Shapouri, a research economist at the USDA s Economic Research Service and one of the authors of the USDA study, says, While food aid is a tool to support food consumption in vulnerable countries in the short run, in the long run only improved agricultural performance in these countries can increase their food security.
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