Lifting the embargo would allow the North to earn some hard currency with which to buy food, medicine and fuel. The preferred outcome is the first, in which North Korea gets enough help to make it through this crisis without descending into chaos, or making some desperate, armed lunge into the South. Doubts are setting in whether that will be possible. The Americans do not want Kim Jong Il to fold just yet, and may have found a way to funnel cash up North. That way, Clinton avoided South Korean objections to granting aid to Pyongyang, and also protected himself from charges by his Republican opponents that he is pandering to the tottering communists in the North.
Opinions are divided about whether the North can be coaxed into negotiations.
Yang Sang Chul, a North Korea expert at Kyunghee University, sees it differently. Both Seoul and Pyongyang are standing tough. The hardliners in the North think that if they stall, they can deal directly with Washington. Indeed, the two countries have already met in several bilateral forums, covering such things as missile sales and recovering the remains of servicemen missing in action. Seoul seems to think that it need only sit tight and the worsening economic conditions will bring the North to its knees.