National polls conducted in January before the official start of the primary season may be extra-susceptible to these order and timing issues. George W. Bush has many advantages in this campaign, and one is his enormous lead in national polls of likely Republican primary voters. Gore's lead among Democrats nationally doesn't reach Bush's national Republican support level. Polls tell us a great deal about the electorate. They give voters a chance to express their opinion and explain why they make the choices they do.
Polls are demonstrably accurate when they pose questions close in time to the election.
The difficulty in interpreting the hypothetical horserace questions now is not that respondents misrepresent their preferences. Rather, it is that pollsters sometimes expect too much of the poll and the voters. They assume that answers given to the hypothetical question are more than simple, immediate, short-term or reflex reactions. CBS Worldwide Inc. All Rights Reserved. All Rights Reserved.