That sort of bravado underscores Wahid's innocence of the dismal science and his near-total dependence on his fractious economic team. It also tells the story of the stuttering Indonesian economy. This year exports are up, vibrantly so, but that is thanks to high oil prices and a newly weakened rupiah, which had fallen to 9,315 on July 7 from 7,500 to the U.S. dollar at the end of March. Indeed, with political unrest, lagging reform and slow corporate restructuring keeping foreign capital away, sustaining the current consumer-led recovery will be difficult. If some Chinese money has begun to trickle back, the big bucks are staying offshore.
Most economists predict a gradual slowdown of the economy.
They fear mass disillusionment will start to set in when new graduates fail to find jobs. And the only way to avoid adding to those numbers is by making enough progress in restructuring indebted companies to create new investment opportunities. But for the meantime, some think the consumer-led strength can be sustained. He believes the recovery can last at current levels well into next year. Increased consumer spending isn't just confined to busy malls and crowded restaurants.