The results suggest that most households benefit from more liberalized rice and wheat trade, particularly after rice production shocks. Impacts of a decline in wheat food aid are relatively modest, as food aid imports are not large enough to have major macroeconomic effects. The simulations of natural gas export revenues suggest that the extent of disincentives to agriculture will depend on whether or not the resulting real exchange rate appreciation is sufficient to lower the import parity price of rice enough so that domestic prices are affected. Finally, all three simulations show that the effects of economic shocks on women s labor and female headed poor households can differ significantly from the effects on men s labor and other households. Download full-text discussion paper .
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