Actual average speeds achieved by most operating light rail systems are only 20 mph, a 45 minute journey. Denver has already seen how commuters respond to increased inconvenience. Between September 1994 and May 1995, express bus routes lost 1,125 of 6,523 daily riders. Buses, automobiles, and vanpools always beat rail in terms of cost, flexibility, and convenience. In Sacramento, planners found that replacing buses with light rail increased transit journey times by 10 to 20 minutes.
Roads also outclass light rail in terms of sheer ability to move people.
In Portland, the real mass transit hero is the Banfield freeway system. During the morning peak in 1994, the Banfield carried 37,225 people. At the same place and time, Portland's light rail hauled 3,515 people. Experience suggests that actual ridership will be fewer than 10,000. For comparison, a lane on I-25 currently moves 48,000 vehicles per day, more than even the most optimistic rail projection.