But Kondratieff's fans roughly presaged the 1920s boom-bust cycle. Modern fans foresaw the vicious 1974 and 1982 recessions, and the speculative boom of the 1980s. The Kondratieff Wave, by Shuman and Rosenau, gives a too-simple but understandable script. Most accounts fail to note the complexities of the wave's coincident international existence. Interest and inflation rates and stock and real estate prices are very low.
Politicians shift from antigovernment policy to federalism.
Few expect inflation, and none conceive of expanding without existing orders in hand, But there are always young turks. Some young managers expand aggressively. Society has fought deflation and depression for 20 years and has closed too much plant and capacity. Demand was pent up for too long. Folks are eager for houses and whatever they can afford.