In his last report, issued on December 10th, the general hinted at the possibility of setting his own timetable for gradual disarmament, leading to the May deadline. That prospect seems to have gone by the board this time, presumably on the basis that the republican mood is sour enough right now without making matters worse. Persuasion in the Spencer Tracy mould, not dire warnings, is more likely to yield results. The situation is a mess. An agreement was reached in the Mitchell review but only in the context of a May deadline for total disarmament.
Republicans deny there was any basis for such a conclusion.
Some observers who were placing their bets on an IRA gesture by today at the latest are now insisting that it would have happened if Mr Trimble had not upset the apple cart by proposing that the UUC reconvene in February. We now know from Mr Gerry Adams's comments over the weekend that, if the institutions are suspended, the IRA interlocutor will probably be withdrawn. The widespread expectation is that the general will try to be as positive as he can within the terms of his remit. There is no evidence to suggest that he will be able to report the handover or destruction of weapons. While the DUP and others would doubtless point out that the UVF agreed modalities in 1998 but had still not decommissioned, the two governments could potentially argue a case that agreement of modalities represented progress.