This increase is concentrated in tropical and subtropical zones. The remaining natural areas are formed to a large extent by mountainous, boreal, subpolar, arid and semi-arid lands, which are less suitable for human settlement. Simultaneously, these remaining natural areas will be under increasing pressure from population growth, economic development and associated environmental stresses such as climate change. Consequently, biodiversity will be severly affected in the scenario, both in terms of quantity and quality. In the Conventional Development scenario, life expectancy increases worldwide, up to 70 years.
Morbidity declines drastically, especially in developing countries.
Expected improvements in income, education, nutrition and water supply will stimulate the decline in fertility needed to stabilize the global population, but how much and how fast is by no means certain. Also, in the long term, an increased population, older in composition and more demanding, will further increase environmental pressures and is likely to undermine its own resource base, which may eventually threaten global health. In this context, increased environmental protection, especially in developing countries, will be essential in the prevention of an increase of disease. While the onset of these transitions can be discerned, adequate social, economic and institutional conditions have to be met for realizing these transitions in working towards the Agenda 21 goals. Linking issues and boosting efficiency in a comprehensive approach To promote transitions, linking of issues provides new options for joint gains by the different actors implicated.