As we editors munch on humble pie, we are reflecting on just how hard it is to foresee the evolution of a new technology and its consequences. Like the computer, the invention of the automobile had hundreds of impacts unsuspected when it was introduced. Besides giving individuals rapid, independent mobility, the automobile caused cities to spread out, drew businesses and residents away from downtowns, and led to economic hardship for people ranging from carriage makers to center-city shopkeepers. Petroleum became a critical strategic resource, and auto emissions became almost as worrisome as horse manure was previously.
Problems generally have a bright side.
Similarly, cleaning up the Y2K crisis will fatten some people's purses. But, for now, the problem seems to be tripping us up. I recently had to conduct some business over the phone with the Motor Vehicle Administration. There was a long pause. Copyright 1998 World Future Society.