The government says the foot and mouth crisis has peaked. The government fervently hopes the foot and mouth crisis may have peaked. Scientific work rushed through by Imperial College and other universities is impressive, but epidemiology is a theoretical science, the modelling used is inexact and, by the scientists' own admission, it is comparatively crude.
Results are only as good as the data inputted.
Several things suggest that Mr Blair should cross his fingers hard and that the epidemiologists may be off the mark. The computer modelling work depends on the disease having started at Heddon on the Wall farm in February. But the book is not closed on this and army sources confirmed this week that this theory is still being investigated. There is accumulating evidence that foot and mouth was in sheep prior to this, and there was more disease in the population than originally thought. If so, then much changes.