It has been estimated that annual growth rates of 3 percent per caput should be required on a sustained basis to allow tangible improvements in living standards and poverty alleviation in the developing countries. Among the poorer countries, very few have shown such high levels of economic activity over protracted periods in the recent past. For these and many other countries in the developing world, one factor of particular concern is the weakness of commodity prices on which many of these countries' economies depend. As pointed out, a demand-driven price boost for these products can only be expected to result from strong economic growth in the industrialized countries. The very high price of petroleum and overheated stock indexes bring the risk of inflation, which could lead to heightened interest rates slowing the industrial economies.
Most current forecasts appear to be cautiously optimistic for the medium term, however.
These are also the general assumptions incorporated in the Project LINK economic and agricultural forecasts reviewed below. The expansion would be above this average in the Near East and North Africa, sub-Saharan Africa and, to lesser extent, Latin America. The agricultural sector in India, and even more so in China, may experience slower growth over the period. Exports and imports of agricultural products, which contracted significantly in 1998 and 1999, are also anticipated to recover, especially on the side of imports. After having deteriorated in 1998 and 1999, the developing countries' agricultural barter terms of trade are expected to stabilize or slightly improve.