Even if it proves oil damage, the egg mortality study would only account for the decline of wild pink runs in oiled streams. The Sound-wide collapse of wild and hatchery fish this year appears to be part of some larger problem. Some scientists say more widespread damage could have occurred when salmon fry came in contact with oil in 1989. Marine toxicologist Riki Ott of Cordova wants the trustees to fund a laboratory study to see whether oil could have caused genetic damage in future generations. I think the litigation really messed up the science that got initiated.
Many scientists consider genetic damage to fry unlikely.
But if it occurred, it will be difficult to detect in retrospect. Until we can do that, we can't sort out the man-made variabilities. Cooney used such models to predict poor pink returns in 1992 and 1993, though he said this year's collapse was well beyond his predictions. Populations of predators like pollock and cod that could be killing off salmon fry in the Sound. The populations could have naturally increased, or they could have been drawn to the Sound by the huge releases of hatchery fry, Cooney said.