So the effect of these two factors, contrary to each other, will probably be to reduce the level of consumption. I expect that a step by step process of liberalization would bring the level of consumption up only temporarily. After some time, within one or two generations, the global level would stabilize at a similar or lower level than it is today. If, in figure 5, we start in 1995, the short-term effect would be called positive. In 2010 it would be negative.
Much research based on simulation techniques has yet to be done.
The effects on the level of consumption depend on two factors. In the first place are of great importance the alternative policies in the fields of education, changing public opinion, public health and rehabilitation programs etc. To achieve effectiveness in this field seems almost as difficult as in the field of repressive policies. There seem, however, to be more opportunities. Repressive strategies exclude social integration, whereas the policies meant above include social integration.