In short, these are all ways of coming to the conclusion that there are research universities are producing too many Ph.D.s. Not one of these statements is accurate, at least in reference to the Ph.D. in general. Every one of them is accurate, at least in relation to some doctoral programs at some universities. Poor information abounds.
Problems arise from the tendency to speak of the Ph.D. as if all recipients had the same training.
But, the Ph.D. in Mechanical Engineering has as much in common with a BA in Fine Arts or an MBA as she does with the Ph.D. in Art History when it comes to labor market strategies and other outcomes. The state of the job market, currently and relative to the past, varies a great deal by field. Also, the quality of the program awarding the Ph.D. strongly influences the likelihood of many desired outcomes. Today, I review some of the evidence gathered by the AAU Committee on Graduate Education to illustrate these issues. While I have developed the graphical presentation, the initial data were produced in response to requests by Yale President Richard Levin, another member of the committee.