I estimated the parameters of this model with data on presidential elections going back as far as 1912, when the first presidential primaries were held. The model s results matched the actual out-comes for all elections held between 1912 and 1996 except in 1960. While the overall record of the model is reassuring, the 1960 miss sounded an ominous warning for 2000. Hence, strong primary performance can be seen as a reflection of broad-based satisfaction with government performance. While the approval rating of the White House occupant would be a more perfect measure of public satisfaction with government performance, it is available in election years only since 1948.
Primary performance goes back much further, putting model-building on a firmer footing.
Right from their inception, primary elections established a pattern. That year Theodore Roosevelt used the 1912 primaries to challenge the sitting president, Taft, for the nomination of the Republican Party. In November, Taft, the party s but not the people s nominee, lost the general election. Denying the primary winner its nomination, so it seemed, proved costly for the incumbent party. Wilson, of course, went on to victory in the general election.