Each is valid for 24 hours beginning at 1200 UTC the next day. SPC convective outlooks are intended to cover broader spatial and temporal domains than severe weather watches, with longer lead time. SPC outlooks for TC tornado potential are based on the track forecast in NHC advisories, and contain verbiage referring to NHC guidance for further information on the cyclone. Since these forecasts should be consistent in placement and timing, SPC outlooks are adjusted with changes in NHC forecasts of landfall timing and intensity. 1 for a graphic example of an SPC outlook area in a TC situation.
Outer curve denotes general thunderstorm forecast.
Routine Day-2 outlook issuances may fall before or early within the first hurricane watch, when there is more uncertainty in the track forecast than during the hurricane warning. The outlooks typically become more precise as landfall time approaches. Such real-time information could be exceptionally beneficial in the event of a rare climatological anomaly which would normally not be included in an outlook. In the several hours prior to landfall, before the periphery of the most favorable sector of a TC circulation approaches the coast, an MCD is usually issued outlining the area of heightened concern within the broader severe weather outlook. The MCD will mention the possibility of tornado watch issuance, if warranted.