The Beatles were selling tons of reissues in 1985, when the Los Angeles Times's Calendar section first polled execs to determine pop's hottest properties, but the label heads were too bullish on contemporary acts to tie their fortunes to the past. Industry titans were equally forward-looking in 1993 and 1995 when two more Calendar polls found U2, Pearl Jam and R.E.M. to be the most prized properties. The assumption again was those stars were going to be turning out hits for years. The uncertainty about today's artists isn't so much a reflection of waning artistry as it is of changing marketing conditions and buying habits. Blaming the rapid turnover of pop stars in recent years on everything from Internet technology and media overexposure to declining fan loyalty, executives worry about artists being unable to deliver more than one or two hit albums before fans turn their attention elsewhere.
Nobody has real shelf life anymore.
The latest Calendar survey supports this theory of diminishing returns. Pearl Jam, R.E.M., Whitney Houston, Mariah Carey, Boyz II Men, Nine Inch Nails, Green Day, Seal, George Michael and the Cranberries. They are the only ones whom some of the smartest minds in the industry consider safer bets than the Beatles, who finished third. It seems like an easy question, but the complexity was apparent in interviews over the past two weeks with 22 of the most powerful executives in the record business. Assembling a roster For the survey, Calendar asked the executives to pretend that all recording contracts were voided and that they could have their pick of any 10 acts.