David Fresco, a post-doctoral fellow who conducts research in the University's clinical division of psychology, says Gore scores significantly higher than Bush on an optimism scale that rates presidential candidates based on their speeches. His research, which includes a team of psychologists, analyzes speeches of the candidates from the day they declare their candidacy until their convention acceptance speech. The study is an outgrowth of work done by psychologists at the University of Pennsylvania who retrospectively rated the optimism of candidates from 1900-1984. When rating only their convention acceptance speeches, Gore, says Fresco, scores a 9.7 on the optimism scale, while Bush scores an 11.2. In both cases, the difference is meaningful, according to Fresco, who has conducted the study as a predictor of campaign success since 1996.
Optimistic candidates are often effective thinkers who end up choosing an effective solution.
Bush is good for a sound bite, but he doesn't really lead you to what he's going to do about an issue. Raters who participated in the study analyzed the candidates' speeches without knowing the speaker's identity. Optimists tend to view problems as solvable because they come from specific or transient causes, Fresco says. Pessimists tend to see problems as arising from permanent and pervasive causes and may believe a solution is out of reach. In the 1996 race, Bill Clinton rated a 9.4 on the scale compared with opponent Bob Dole, who rated a 12.2.