It is the road that leads to a total breakdown of Kenya. This scenario is based on fanning the flames of ethnic animosity and the formation of ethnic militias. Widespread corruption continues unabated. Armed gangs emerge. The constitutional crisis deteriorates.
Regional conflicts escalate and threaten to spread.
The populace is no longer confident in the ability of the state to enforce the law. The state is rapidly losing its legitimacy. Kenyans are taking no account of it in the running of their affairs. Instead, they rely more and more on informal establishments, based largely on ethnic allegiances. To aggravate matters further, the state loses its capacity to hold together different groups in the delicate balance of power.