For milking farms, the 12-month prognosis is slightly better. Because it takes time to get young cows going, it could be another 18 months before a farmer sees his stock milking at full capacity. However, it's expected that farmers will try to cut this productivity gap by buying in older and more expensive cows that are already lactating, and introducing younger animals later. If it can, the farmer is in good stead for April 2002 since the ewe will have borne lambs. But if disinfection periods stretch into October, lambing is likely to be delayed by another 12 months.
Prospects are brighter for pig units.
Because the breeding cycle in pigs is quicker than sheep or cattle, a weaner bought six months from now could produce several new sows by next April.