This means that Botswana can expect to lose the 36 percent of its adult population that is HIV-positive within this decade, plus the additional numbers who will be infected within the next year or two. The HIV toll, plus normal deaths among adults, means that close to half of the adults in Botswana today will be dead by 2010. Other countries with high infection rates, such as South Africa, Swaziland, and Zimbabwe, will likely lose nearly a third of their adults by 2010. In Africa, infants of mothers who are HIV-positive have a 30 to 60 percent chance of being born with the virus. Their life expectancy is typically less than 2 years.
Many more infants acquire the virus through breastfeeding.
Few of them will reach school age. Thus far, attention has focused on the effect of rising mortality on future population trends, but the virus also reduces fertility. Research is limited, but early evidence indicates that from the time of infection onward, fertility among infected women slowly declines. By the time symptoms of AIDS appear, women are 70 percent less likely to be pregnant than those who are not infected. Females are infected at an earlier age than males because they have sexual relations with older men who are more likely to be HIV-positive.