We employ a distribution dynamics approach to examine the empirical dynamics of technological specialisation in industrial countries. Using patent data, distributions of a specialisation index and Markov stochastic kernels are estimated non-parametrically for each country. Three are the main findings.
Mobility is nevertheless high.
These findings cast doubt on the theory of technological accumulation and path-dependence, hence on its implication of persistence in national patterns of industrial specialisation and on the effectiveness of targeted industrial and technology policies.