A postscript or pdf copy of the pre-publication version can be obtained here. This paper investigates the use of standard econometric models for quantal choice to study equilibria of extensive form games.
Players make choices based on a quantal choice model, and assume other players do so as well.
We also define a parametric specification, called logit-AQRE, in which quantal choice probabilities are given by logit response functions. AQRE makes predictions that contradict the invariance principle in systematic ways. The logit-AQRE also implies a unique selection from the set of subgame perfect equilibria in generic extensive form games. We find that the logit-AQRE selection applied to these games succeeds in predicting patterns of behavior observed in these experiments, even when our prediction conflicts with more standard equilibrium refinements, such as the intuitive criterion. Return to McKelvey home page.