The return these workers ultimately will receive will be even less, maybe much less, depending on what is done to balance the system, and when. The grim present and future reality has led to the search for alternatives. The current US Social Security System is essentially a tax transfer program. Significant surpluses are expected to continue for the next 15 to 20 years until the peak of the baby-boom generation reaches retirement age. Accumulated system assets are invested in special US Treasury securities.
Marginal returns are significantly lower.
In general, returns are not very good. The increase in tax rates and the taxable earnings maximum through time implies that young people must make larger absolute tax contributions as well. With a less than fair rate of return, making larger contributions translates into a larger overall loss. Many discussions of the current status of the US Social Security System focus on the possibility of bankruptcy. While this prospect is certainly real, focusing on it draws attention away from the more fundamental issue of the large unfunded debt that even a balanced social-security system imposes on today's young.