AIDS will have a devastating effect on economic growth in Southern Africa and could also affect the growing economies of Asia as the epidemic gains a foothold there. AIDS can hit developing countries on several fronts at once, resulting in reduced savings and investment, lost production, lost labor, high health care costs, and reduced returns on investments in health and education. The economic damage is even worse when the disease hits hardest among more educated and skilled workers, as is happening in Africa. The discussion paper analyzes population forecasts of the United Nations, World Bank, and U.S. Bureau of Census to explore the cost of AIDS and the effects of the disease on population and economic growth. It projects the implications of the AIDS pandemic for food, agriculture, and the environment through the year 2020.
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