The latter helps mitigate the otherwise much larger decline in real beef prices expected through 2020. A rapidly expanding supply of feedgrains will be essential to achieving the desire production increases for livestock products without undue upwards pressure on grain prices, especially in view of the role of monogastrics and the relative increase in industrial production in developing countries. Sensitivity analysis of the impact of restrictions on China's ability to produce more feedgrains illustrates that in a system of linked global markets for cereals and livestock products, such restrictions are not effective at lowering Chinese livestock consumption, which is driven by global trade in manufactures, although they do lower Chinese livestock production. The resulting imbalance raises world feed costs by one-third in 2020 over anticipated levels, encourages increased livestock exports from Latin America, discourages livestock exports from the U.S., and reduces meat and cereals imports and consumption in the poorer countries of Africa and Asia. Download full-text discussion paper .
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