Unless some unforeseen development produces a sudden major change in conditions, the status quo can be expected to continue for some time. This is the daunting task that the United States, Japan, and South Korea are all attempting to accomplish. But their counterpart in the North is a wily practitioner of diplomacy. The four-party talks are unlikely to produce the desired sort of progress. This is the tricky context of Japan's current talks with North Korea.
Many issues complicate the negotiations between Tokyo and Pyongyang.
These include the return of abducted Japanese nationals, halting the smuggling of drugs and the manufacture of counterfeit dollars by the North, and arranging return visits by Japanese wives of North Koreans. Of these, the issue of the Japanese wives, whose presence in North Korea is not in doubt, has been viewed as the easiest to deal with. And in fact, a group of 15 have recently completed a short visit. In return, Japan has resumed shipments of food aid to the North. But despite this quid pro quo, most Japanese are happy for these women to have a chance to travel to their homeland after an absence of several decades.