There are two securities with a current value of 100 which, in the case of security A, may have a high value in one period of 130 with a probability of 0.55 or a low value of 85 with probability 0.45 and security B which can have a value of 125 with probability 0.55 and a low value of 90 with probability of 0.45. A budget or accounting based approach to the future.
Plans involve production and profitability targets, cash flows, etc.
Such plans involve asking basic questions about the business. It also involves short, medium and long term horizons. This may not make use of forecasting experts but involve line managers, etc. Delphi forecasting is a formal process for obtaining the consensus forecast of a particular situation which involves repeatedly asking a group of experts to provide their views whilst at the same time feeding back summaries of their findings so as to develop a common assessment. Expert judgement relies on a given expert, or group of experts within or outwith the firm, giving their considered view on the situation and its consequences.