Its size does not really matter. What matters is that it does exist, and that irrespective of its size, it is a problem which will just have to be addressed because it is there, and because of the inflexibility of its deadline. It is also a problem whose parameters are being expanded day by day, as we discover new nooks and crannies of possible damage, which could range from minor irritations with household appliances, to possible dangers in as serious a matter as nuclear command and control and strategic defence systems. While efforts obviously have to be made to sit down and determine all the possible areas which can be affected or hit by Y2K, it is in the intangibility of the global net-working that the greatest damage will possibly lie. This can become extremely dangerous in a world, much of which is structured on perceptions rather than on hard production facts.
Perceptions are extraordinary multipliers, both upwards and downwards.
That is why we have had to face the extraordinary volatility of financial markets, and the extraordinary magnitude of their ripple effects, in recent months. Another consequence of the Y2K problem arises from the fact that the problem is not linked to the date itself, but rather to the figure of the date. In many cases, this figure of the date comes up even before the actual date itself, as in the case of credit cards which have to be issued now, but with a validity going beyond 1 January 2000. What this means is that we would be mistaken if we believe that we have the whole of 1999 to resolve the problem. The time available is much shorter, and we are almost certainly and hopelessly behind in our respective time-lines in addressing the issue.