But it is also possible that, faced with markets worried about a soft euro, the bank might adopt monetary policies even tighter than it otherwise would. If the bank wants to do this, it might be able to justify its actions by appealing to the stability pact, which, even if revised, will discourage excessive borrowing. These arguments point to the birth of the euro in 1999. It seems likely that it will include Spain, Portugal and probably Italy. If so, and if it is a strong currency buttressed by tight monetary policies, then its early years could well be painful ones for Europe's weaker economies.
Most politicians claim to be prepared for that.
A currency that does not command popular support is likely to have a testing time of it. The latest Eurobarometer opinion polls released last week make gloomy reading. In the Union as a whole, a third of respondents are against the single currency. In France, it is positive, but the margin in favour is shrinking. Here lies the real obstacle to a smooth birth for the euro.