These models include statistical tools to predict corporate cash flow, such as the Box-Jenkins New Money Requirements used by corporate treasuries. There are also a number of industry-specific models that help managers measure the current business impact of risk, such as the various Value At Risk models used by financial institutions to measure complex derivative portfolio positions. Risk management's real value in predicting the future is the ability to think laterally about business decisions. Risk managers help pry the blinders off the managers that suffer from too narrow perspective. Risk is not managed.
Risk is a concept used to express the material effects of an uncertain environment.
Managers manage in an uncertain environment of risk. This is clearly impossible. The organization has little influence at that level. Instead, managers modify operations and business decisions to respond to current and future states of the uncertain environment. That means that managers must change the way they manage and take responsibility for results.