Here, economists sound much more self- assured about their ability to analyze and predict crises using conventional methods. After Mexico, many economists said their models didn't work. It's 10,000 papers later, is one answer. And there's a focus on the balance sheet. That's really where it happened.
Nobody here says they can time it.
They can tell you whether someone is exposed and they can use empirical work to say what some of the impact will be on Country X if it happens in Country Y, because there's a lot of empirical work done on the correlations. So, I think that a huge amount has been done. I think there is a hugely better understanding of how to make a crisis. Or, turn it around. They spend a lot more time not on the inflation rate and not on the trade balance, but looking at the maturity matching and how it can go wrong.