Bush's comments went much further than any previous president's pronouncements toward saying that Washington would treat a Chinese invasion of Taiwan as a serious matter and that the United States would side with the Taiwanese. Bush didn't elaborate - but he shouldn't do so yet, since China's plans are themselves unclear. Yet Beijing now knows, beyond any doubt, that the United States wouldn't just stand by if communist Chinese struck at Taiwan. That knowledge could discourage the Chinese from even contemplating such an attack. So by clarifying U.S. policy, even just a smidgen, Bush may have helped avoid a future armed conflict.
Paradox is still the hallmark of U.S.-Sino relations.
Although Bush said the United States has an obligation to help Taiwan defend itself, formal U.S. policy still pays lip service to the notion that there is one China and Taiwan is somehow part of that larger whole. Yet in practical terms, even the most die-hard China fan must acknowledge that Taiwan today is very different from the mainland, with modern Taipei boasting a freely elected government. Relations between Washington and Beijing likely will stay messy and complicated. But Bush's clarification should diminish one of the most dangerous uncertainities.