Few European states recognized the self-declared Confederate States of America in 1861, a fact that helped ensure eventual Northern victory. Prudence will generally counsel against the early recognition of seceding states. But the logic of the international system itself dictates that recognition for new states comes only when independence is either recognized by the former government or assured by fiat accompli . If secession is a political question within Canada, recognizing Quebec's independence before Ottawa does amounts to taking sides in an internal political question. As long as Chretien refrains from endorsing Norm Coleman in Minnesota's gubernatorial election, the United States should avoid taking sides between Quebec and Canada.
Premature recognition can also do a great deal of harm.
This decade's Balkan conflict was spurred by Germany's recognition of Croatian and Slovenian independence from Yugoslavia. That turned a domestic Yugoslav political crisis into an international war. Quebec is unlikely to become another Bosnia, but U.S. policy ought to be consistent. With rare exception, the United States should demand that both sides in a national divorce agree to call the whole thing off before recognizing the new state.