If not, you still win because you've set a low boundary value for upcoming negotiations. If you get a counteroffer from the owner, it's time to get serious. It means they're definitely interested in selling the name to you. Don't be intimidated if the counteroffer is too high. Just be patient and make a small concession from your original offer.
Negotiations can take days or weeks.
If both parties want a good deal, a fair price will eventually be negotiated. The final piece in the puzzle is to transfer the name from the current owner. If you negotiate through one of the domain name trading sites, the transfer will be done automatically through an escrow account. If you've negotiated directly with the owner, you should still use an escrow service. It's good protection for both parties.