A deadline for action by the administration is fast approaching. Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Jesse Helms agreed to approve the nomination of a senior administration appointee, Assistant Secretary of State for Non-Proliferation Affairs Robert Einhorn, in exchange for a promise that the administration would form a task force to make a determination on sanctions. The task force's six-month deadline is thought to be in late May or June. Helms, a long-time hawk on proliferation and a sceptic on Chinese intentions, wouldn't let President Bill Clinton do nothing. Sanctions could devastate the U.S.-China political relationship, and both governments know it.
Political relations are already fragile.
In China, memories remain fresh of Nato's bombing of China's embassy in Belgrade one year ago. Since the March election of a formerly pro-independence president on Taiwan, moreover, Chinese have been dwelling anew on the possibility of a military confrontation with the United States over China's claims to the island. Sanctions would likely undermine U.S. efforts to engage with China on a range of subjects, from Taiwan to a forthcoming presidential decision on development of a National Missile Defence system for the U.S., which China vociferously opposes. Sanctions would, however, satisfy the U.S. intelligence community, which has long argued that the State Department has wilfully ignored evidence that China transferred full missiles to Pakistan. Intelligence officials say that because U.S. law requires sanctions in such situations, the State Department undermined the law's credibility by failing to acknowledge the existence of a sufficiently high standard of evidence to trigger stronger sanctions against China.