Bush has been slowly unveiling the outlines of what could be a historic reform of the Social Security system. He's not going to provide nitty-gritty details, but it'll be the standard reform model that conservatives, and many centrist Democrats, have been advocating for the past several years. Democrats have always been able to demagogue this sort of reform package to death. And even today, it is extraordinarily hard to tell how this issue will play out in the fall. The polls are utterly confusing.
Republicans are perpetually hopeful that the electorate is moving in their direction.
After all, the New Deal generation, which doesn't want Social Security changed, is dying off, while the investor class, which should be comfortable with individual accounts, is growing by leaps and bounds. And if there has ever been a time to be hopeful, it is now. That's because Bush has more credibility on this issue, in large part because of his activism on other issues. As usual, Gore is all set to wave the bloody shirt. But what is striking is the way this issue is drawing Gore away from the center.