Mr. Wong said.
Private economists agree.
The unemployment rate will probably hit 6 percent this year and 7.5 percent in 1999, said Clive McDonnell, economist at SG Securities. Economists have said that a jobless rate of about 6 percent could threaten a big increase in defaults on mortgages. That could threaten the health of some of Hong Kong's banks, which are heavily dependent on mortgage lending. The normal period for a recession, he said, is one to two quarters. Part of Hong Kong's troubles can be attributed to rapidly contracting demand and plunging currencies in the rest of Asia.