Hugh Johnson, chief market strategist at First Albany Corp., sees the Dow retreating by 700 points before the selling slows. But the Dow was up only 10 percent and 2 percent during the 12-month periods before the '78 and '81 tax cuts. Stocks falling from today's heights could pick up some speed. But they'd probably end up being terrific buys. Listless small-company stocks might be especially energized.
Most large companies reward investors partly in dividends, which are taxed as ordinary income.
But Mott isn't placing any big bets based on what Washington might do. The Postal Service is losing its monopoly. The IRS plans to announce by April which couriers meet its recordkeeping and other standards. MORE TIME Form 4868 will buy you four extra months, both to file your return and to send off any payment. But the penalty is stiffer for filing late without an extension.