That's because Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle, D-South Dakota, can become the majority leader in 2003 if his party nets even a single seat in the 2002 elections. With 20 Republican and only 14 Democratic Senate seats up next year, the Democrats have more opportunities to gain seats. To retain the Senate, the Republicans will either have to keep virtually all of their seats or knock off a couple of Democratic incumbents. Once again, most incumbents who seek re-election will win another term. With voters not yet panicking about the economy or angry at one of the political parties, incumbent officeholders begin with a clear advantage.
Retirements are likely to be a major factor, as they usually are.
At the beginning of this cycle, two Democrats, Minnesota's Paul Wellstone and Michigan's Carl Levin, still hadn't decided whether to seek re-election. But Democratic insiders insist that all of their incumbents are now prepared to run again. Wellstone, who pledged not to seek a third term, has already announced he'll run, provoking anger from U.S. Term Limits, an outspoken interest group. In contrast, one GOP incumbent, South Carolina's Strom Thurmond, is sure to retire, and others, including North Carolina's Jesse Helms and Tennessee's Fred Thompson, are undecided about whether to seek another term. Both parties have a handful of incumbents who appear particularly vulnerable.