But for predicting future energy supplies, they are as fishy as three-dollar bills. The numbers are certainly inflated, but no one knows exactly what the real numbers are. The 40-year oil supply statement is based on the current rate of consumption. Unfortunately, the volume of the world's oil consumption is an ever-growing number. So, basing a projection upon the current rate of consumption yields a result that bears little relationship to reality.
Oil is especially critical for agriculture, transportation, and the chemical industry.
To a significant degree, oil is the engine that has driven the explosion in human population - far more oil than sun energy was used to produce your lunch. The production of food, the price of food, and the availability of food are strongly dependent on oil. Humans have searched for oil for over 100 years. Until 1962, the rate at which we discovered new oil was an upward curve. But 1962 was the peak of oil discovery.