We don't have anything else. Hong Kong model. For now, Taiwan is unlikely to risk provoking China with a declaration of independence. The moderates in Chen's party argue that a declaration would be superfluous since, they say, Taiwan already is independent. Even those who favor eventual reunification reject China's seemingly moderate policy of using the peaceful reversion of Hong Kong to Chinese control as a model.
Reunification is possible, they say, only when China becomes a democracy.
Whether Taiwan can survive independently may ultimately depend on its ability to pursue its goals while not embarrassing Beijing's moderates or giving its hard-liners a reason to go to war. But a free-speech democracy with an independent and assertive populace is not a fertile ground for subtle diplomacy. Taiwan's strongest card is the enormous cost to China, economic and political, that a military conquest of the island would involve. Still, wars have been started for lesser causes than national reunification. Inc. All rights reserved.