Recent trends confirm that an upswing is beginning.
Although retail sales figures remain uneven, the prevailing picture is one of recovery in items such as consumer durables and cars. Survey evidence supports this view with business confidence improving and most companies planning to rebuild stocks and increase investment. We expect growth to be export-led on the back of recovery in neighbouring Latin American markets and a strengthening of world demand. Private investment by both domestic and foreign companies will more than offset another year of public-sector austerity. While private consumption will lag behind as employment and earning trends hold back real income, imports will recover after last year's collapse, although import substitution will have lowered the economy's import propensity.