He has assured Iranians that their votes on June 8 will make a difference to fundamental reform within the Islamic system. But what appears on the surface is far from reality in Iran. Several important facts have been lost among whatever hopes there might be that Khatami will be able to deliver the goods. Yet Iran today is more of a theocracy than it was four years ago. The conservative clerical establishment has taken over the state by reasserting itself in major institutions, including the judiciary, the press, law enforcement and the intelligence service.
Public opinion plays only a minimal role in the political process.
Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has tended to intervene decisively in politics more than Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini ever did, and he is now micromanaging state affairs. As a result, it seems likely that Khatami's second term will have a minimal effect on Iran's long-term direction. The reform movement as we know it reached its limitations a year ago. A slowly emerging social movement for change, driven by young Iranians and intellectuals, will continue in the long term. But this gradual process of social transformation will not prompt profound political reform in the near future.