Insiders were reliable judges of oil prices in the fall of 1997 when heavy insider selling precipitated sharp oil price declines. With oil prices so low and lacking Asian demand exerting even greater pressures on prices, decreased supply is the only thing that can save oil prices. OPEC agreed to curb production by 1- 1.5 million barrels per day, but several nations are cheating on that agreement. If OPEC won't cooperate, decreasing supply will be very difficult. El Nino hurt demand for heating oil in the beginning of 1998.
Nobody expects a repeat, but everyone knows just how hard it is to predict the weather.
Just because oil prices have never gone much lower than they are right now does not mean they can not keep heading south.