Butler told U.S. News recently that he frequently receives counsel from Security Council members but that he alone determines which operations to undertake. Albright's private pleadings for restraint differ sharply from the administration's tough public warnings during the last crisis. President Clinton argued at the time that any equivocation would invite Saddam to use his arsenal. U.S. officials nonetheless play down the policy shift, which came out of a spring re-examination of the inspections crisis that ended when Annan brokered a deal requiring that diplomats chaperone inspectors to Iraqi presidential sites. Policy makers concluded that threatening the use of force again could fracture an already weakened anti-Saddam coalition.
Many outside analysts see the administration's new, low-key approach as a turning point.
The rhetoric now is less gutsy and more realistic. But the change also reflects Saddam's past gains from crisis diplomacy. Each time, Arab opposition to the continuing sanctions grows, and countries like France and Russia press harder to ease penalties on Iraq even before the inspectors have finished their work. For now, U.S. officials are again looking to Annan to find a way out of the standoff. But he is unenthusiastic about negotiating another agreement with Saddam.