Nothing is ever sure in Central Asia, where alliances are fluid and the balance of power precarious.
But foreign diplomats, Government officials in Uzbekistan and aid agency workers seem persuaded that the victory of the Pakistani-backed fundamentalist Taliban militia may be only a few months away. Yet a Taliban victory could further destabilize the Central Asian regions north of Afghanistan, in the territory of the former Soviet Union. That is a danger that American and European policy makers ignore at their own peril. The Massoud troops, driven out of Kabul by the Taliban, still control much of northeastern Afghanistan. These two groups cannot mount an effective resistance on their own, nor are they willing to pool their forces.