The degree of risk is also increased by the growing complexity and interdependence of the infrastructure of modern cities. Addressing the risk of disastrous earthquakes requires a coordinated focus of scientific, engineering and social efforts. Although in the public eye the primary scientific contribution is perhaps earthquake prediction, the major scientific contributions to coping with earthquake hazard are, in fact, in other areas.
Many respected seismologists see earthquake prediction as a far distant goal, at best.
Certainly, reliance upon earthquake prediction to reduce earthquake risk is not a practical strategy given the present state of knowledge. Much more important to the reduction of earthquake risk are the scientific studies delineating active faults and estimating the frequency of large earthquakes that these faults can generate. For example, studies using trenching and dendrochronology have allowed the dating of great prehistoric earthquakes along California s San Andreas fault and in the Pacific Northwest, thereby permitting quantitative estimates of the likelihood of future shocks. The engineering efforts to reduce earthquake risk range from such practical tasks as the improvement of building codes and standards of construction, to basic research on the character of near field ground motions and structural response. The adoption and enforcement of a good building code is the most broadly effective way to decrease earthquake risk, but there are many special structures and engineering systems which cannot be covered by a simple building code and that require special study and treatment.