Meanwhile, avowedly friendly states such as Egypt and Jordan will swiftly recall their ambassadors and initiate a campaign for the arming of the Palestinian militia - while, of course, threatening a mobilization of their own. In the north, Hezbollah has shown no indication of ceasing its attacks against Israeli targets once Israel retires from southern Lebanon. On the contrary, northern Israeli settlements will continue to be bombarded by the puppet militia controlled from Damascus. With the Lebanese government unable or unwilling to exercise restraint and the SLA enfeebled by the loss of its allies, Israel, after trying everything else, will have no other choice but to hit Assad where its hurts - on Syrian territory. This of course leaves little option for either Lebanon, Syria, or Israel.
Military escalation is inevitable.
No Arab leader is foolish enough to believe that he can win an armed conflict with Israel. The Arabs will seek to wear down Israeli reluctance to part with East Jerusalem or to cede most of the pre-1967 West Bank, including such heavily populated Jewish areas as Ma'ale Adummim, Ariel, and the Golan. Seen in this light, both Yasser Arafat's and Hafez el Assad's unwillingness to compromise in the present peace negotiations is no accident. Their deadly game, which may claim the lives of hundreds, if not thousands of their own people, has been carefully crafted and is now cynically wielded as a dagger at Israel's throat. The failure of Israel's leaders and public to recognize the threat, and to make the necessary military and diplomatic preparations in its likely outcome, may be Israel's most costly blunder since the beginning of the Yom Kippur War.