But the IMF figures made public last week are already subject to downward revisions, according to officials, because they did not actually include the effects of the Russian crisis. Given the dependence of these countries on Russian trade, energy and infrastructure, there may be even greater reason for concern. Ripples from Russia's collapse have already been felt throughout the world, so the CIS nations will not be left untouched. But the regional rate will drop, in part due to a major cut in the growth estimate for Turkmenistan.
Recent developments argue against optimism.
Then as now, Turkmenistan's inability to gain access to the Russian pipeline system since March 1997 has crimped the republic's gas exports. New exports of gas to Iran this year have made up only a fraction of the difference. The Caspian Business Report also recently suggested that the first deliveries of gas through a new pipeline to Iran only started in September, rather than in February as reported previously. The U.S. Department of Energy has a forecast that is in line with the lower figures for Turkmenistan. Events in Russia may also hamper production by other republics in the region.