For Asean, the policy has been a washout. Burma is now a full-fledged member of the regional grouping, but while this may have kept it from becoming a Chinese vassal, China's influence over the country remains as strong as ever. Constructive engagement has not done much for Burma, either. But the Visit Myanmar Year tourism campaign proved to be a total bust, the official rate of the kyat remains way overvalued and the black market still seems to be the healthiest part of the economy. Some generals and well-connected businessmen have no doubt become a good deal richer, but this wealth has yet to trickle down to the rest of the country.
Most people are as poor as ever, and the nascent middle class seems stillborn.
Indeed, much of the money gained from selling off Burma's fish, forests and minerals seems to have been squandered on arms, empty hotels and offshore bank accounts. Political development has not gone anywhere, either. Although opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi has officially been freed, she is still under virtual house arrest. Thailand may be the biggest loser of all from constructive engagement. Following a policy advocated by its National Security Council, support for the ethnic minority groups which have been warring with Rangoon for decades has slowly been withdrawn.