Debt drag High levels of personal and corporate borrowing are adding to the credit crunch and consumer jitters. Still, big indebtedness makes consumers more responsive to interest rates. And that means the widely expected Fed rate cut in January could produce a rapid upturn in consumer buying. But a lot of U.S. debt has been financed by foreign investors. Should a slumping U.S. economy dim their enthusiasm for further lending, the result could be a further . . .
Most economists agree that technology has produced likely lasting gains in worker output.
But a falloff in growth could idle plants and retailers and, since employers are reluctant to lay off workers, lead to a cyclical downturn in productivity. That would worry the Fed, as might the fallout from . . . The headlined spike in natural gas prices and the earlier run-up in oil prices could further pinch consumer pocketbooks and keep the Fed alert for an inflation uptick. Few worry that the gloomy forecasts that the incoming Bush administration now uses to sell its tax cut will themselves provoke a downturn. Still, Congress will be hard put to resist a tax cut.