Today, with the relatively conservative hardline forces represented by Li Peng trying to make a comeback, Deng's successor, Jiang Zemin, is on the defensive, to a large extent because of the difficulties posed by economic liberalisation. While Jiang remains in control, there is no certainty that China will stay firmly on the path of pragmatism and global integration. The possibility of a more aggressive external posture, already visible in recent Chinese belligerence towards Taiwan, must be anticipated. At the same time, we must appreciate that the probability of conflict with India remains relatively low. Conflict can only be an obstacle.
Peace comes first, so that resources are optimised for growth.
A country at peace can better attract external sources of technology and finance. War can be costly and internally destabilising. In this setting, India is a relatively minor threat. India's neuclearisation effectively rules out the threat of war, particularly since the border areas in contention are largely barren. Neither country has a deep interest in making significant inroads into the territory of the other.