The nonpartisan Urban Institute publishes studies, reports, and books on timely topics worthy of public consideration. The views expressed are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the Urban Institute, its trustees, or its funders. Gene Steuerle, a senior fellow at the Urban Institute, continues a series on the country's long-term care needs and possible government responses. President Clinton's recent proposal to provide tax credits for expenses of long-term care raises a variety of issues not simply of tax policy, but of budget, health, and retirement policy as well. There is little doubt that the public's need for some long-term care has been rising and will accelerate not long after the baby boomers begin to retire.
Many forces are at play.
That we live much longer, however, may not be one of them. Longer lives can just as easily mean more years of productivity as of need for assistance from others. Even in the absence of longer lives, that implies larger percentages of the population will be in their later rather than earlier years. For example, more of the population will be in the last tenth of their lives, regardless of how much the average lifespan increases. Independently from demographics, however, the demand for long-term care has already been on an expansion path.