No one knows how deregulation will impact this region because the exact legal and business form it will ultimately take has yet to be defined. In late 1996, the federal government took the lead in pushing the process along. Several bills were introduced in U.S. Congress, and in 1997 these bills will have to be reconciled. Many observers believe the ultimate market model for electricity will be in place around the year 2000 and will be a plan referred to as retail wheeling. This is a marketing system much like that now in place for long distance telephone companies.
New rules are also forthcoming that deal with the trans-mission and distribution of electric power.
Rick Lawrence, director of energy at Alcan Rolled Products Co., points out, as a reliable supply of electric power is so vital, and deregulating its production is so complex, some sort of continuing government insight will probably be essential after the year 2000. It should promote true and open competition and afterwards, monitoring of the power market by FERC,the Department of Justice, and the state Public Service Commissions may be in order to assure that true competition is taking place. Some financial analysts have predicted that the electric utility industry, like the present long distance telephone business, will see a rapid consolidation and a series of mergers in the wake of deregulation with a handful of strong regional producers ultimately emerging. Without government oversight, a few big regionals could then easily collude on pricing of energy, effectively eliminating true competition. Since electricity is so vital to daily life, Toth, of the local union, and many other observers including consumer advocates and environmental activists, say deregulation of electric utilities is not comparable to deregulating long haul truckers or airlines and so must be done carefully.