Catti's Kids Everyone knows it's lucky to be born in Esmerel. Marcus and Catti just had their sixth child, and the mathemagician sees the opportunity for another probability quiz. Either is equally likely. If you know Marcus and Catti, you will know that in this case, number 2 is correct, and that they just had their fifth lucky boy. But most people, says the mathemagician, pick answer number 1, and for an interesting reason.
People base their answers on heuristics, rules of thumb.
In this case, the heuristic which gives the wrong answer is known as the Representativeness Heuristic. In other words, we think that things that are random should LOOK random. A better-known heuristic is the Vividness Heuristic, in which vivid events are judged more probable than they really are. So most people perceive that there is more chance of dying in an airplane crash than in a car accident, even though dying in a car accident is far, far more likely. The Bank Teller Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken, and very bright.