This is the judgment that the public makes of the performance of the party already in power. If neither war nor economic difficulty is at hand, the incumbent party wins. Policy or Program or Positions. Polls outlining attitudes towards government action are usually a good hint of who is going to win. The dominant issues in Election 2000 have been health care and education, which typically favor the Democratic party.
Most voters vote, most of the time, for the same party.
In the years through 1980, when there were more Democrats than Republicans, this favored Democrats. The least important of the P's, but the one that fascinates the pundits most. They are convinced, with literally no evidence, that personality overcomes performance and policy in the minds of the voters. This after watching massive landslides for such winning personalities as Lyndon Johnson and Richard Nixon, or watching the rather large separation between voter ratings of Bill Clinton as personality and Bill Clinton as President. In fact, attitudes towards personality follow attitudes towards party and program, rather than vice versa.