It's my way of trying to alert readers that something significant could be happening, but in doing so, I am concerned that I might be feeding a false optimism that traders often have in long, bear markets. Buying into bear markets too early is a common and expensive habit. Typically, bear markets in commodities are choppy, frustrating, and can last for several years. They have a demoralizing effect on anyone that tries to buy a commodity because it is cheap. A strong bear market will often have several uptrends along the way that near significant breakouts, but then fail.
Prices trade above their long-term highs briefly, but then fall back into the downtrend.
Anyone that has been burned by their share of bull traps will find it hard to buy when the real breakout occurs. That is how the markets work. You never know for sure. Understanding fundamentals can help, but like the lumber scenario the other day, you can often make a case for either direction. My advice is to have a healthy skepticism about any change in the long-term trend.