Therefore, instead of attempting to develop quantitative measures that strain credibility, the committee offers general guidelines against which to measure the worthiness of proposed applications of robotics and artificial intelligence. These guidelines are grouped according to their intended effect. Material Reduced cost The final item, reduced cost, is not the only one that can be assigned a quantitative value. A reduced need for training, for example, should result in reduced training costs. However, meaningful estimates with acceptable levels of confidence would require large volumes of experience data that simply are not available at this early stage in the development of a new and revolutionary technology.
Military advantage is probably the ultimate measure of effectiveness.
For example, if it could be shown through modeling or gaming that investment in a system meant the difference between winning or losing, that system could be described as infinitely cost effective. The committee simply does not have access to sufficient pertinent information to make other than a subjective judgment of the effectiveness of its proposed applications at this time. Further, because each application is to be implemented progressively, such measures will change over time. Finally, because the final versions of the applications require substantial research and development, the committee, despite its collective experience, can provide only the gross estimates of probable costs and payoffs contained in the matrix. First, that in its collective judgment, the recommended applications provide sound benefits for the Army and second, that these benefits will stem from more than one of the nine areas listed above.