Hurried on by a gradually approaching domestic economic crisis I have a distinct impression that opposition from England would be welcomed by the Italians as an opportunity for the demonstration of their imaginary and even possible superior strength in the Eastern part of the Mediterranean. Malta is only a few minutes by air from the Italian posts in Sicily, and Cairo, Alexandria, and Port Said are only an hour removed from the Libyan coast. I have the impression that the Italians are quite willing to accept the delay which has been occasioned by the Geneva meetings since they are thus afforded more time for preparation and for the completion of a number of ships they have recently bought for transport purposes, which are now being transformed at Genoa. Likewise, I am equally impressed with the fact that they now find themselves in a position from which a withdrawal is impossible without suffering in effect a defeat. There is every indication of a carefully prepared, well-calculated, hard, cold, and cruel prosecution of preconceived plans by the use of an army and navy which is almost fanatic in idolatry of and devotion to one man and which is worked up to an emotional pitch unique in modern times.
Military capitulation is the only alternative.
Your attention should be invited at the same time to the lasting effect necessitated by this situation on international situations in Europe and on changing political alignments. The settled friendship between Great Britain and Italy has gone and will not reappear for generations. In the press today is featured the friendly exchange of expressions between Chancelor Hitler and the new Ambassador of Italy to Germany, which presumably is a political warning to France that she must adhere to her alliance with Italy. But whatever arrangements Italy may be able to make with Germany in the future and it would appear impossible that a reconciliation of their clashing interests could be effected, an entirely new element in the already complicated European situation has been brought about by the changed situation between Italy and England. The British Empire is directly threatened by Italy's action in the eastern Mediterranean and if the latter successfully establishes herself in Ethiopia, the Suez Canal wild be almost as important politically to Italy as it is to England.