Of course, it is possible that the economic situation will not improve, but in this case, many say, strategic balance will no longer matter because Russia might cease to exist. Russia's freedom of action, which is supposed to increase after the United States abrogates the ABM Treaty, has even broader implications, including for export control regimes. Had Russia been a superpower, it might be interested in tight restrictions on arms and technology transfers. In view of all this, the optimism of the Clinton administration is unfounded. Implications for US Policy Two assumptions around which current US arms control policy is built appear questionable.
Russian policy is driven by economics.
But they are seen as much in the American interest as in Russia's, and their role as a lever to influence Russian behavior is often overestimated. With respect to the shaping of strategic and substrategic posture, economic constraints are even less powerful. Furthermore, Russia's financial dependence on the West is decreasing as assistance is being reduced and IMF funding is becoming increasingly difficult to obtain. Russia values traditional forms of arms control because they provide the appearance of equality to the United States and help maintain its great power status in international relations. In reality, the Russian elite seems to have reconciled itself to a lower status and no longer supports these goals, as the Soviet Union did.