With a large western crop and potential western port congestion, there will be an incentive for the CWB to move as much wheat as possible domestically in 1996-97. The CWB has affirmed that it will make every effort to accommodate the needs of the domestic industry. However, some millers in Ontario are reported to have arranged for imports from the PNW, and imports could potentially reach as high as 100,000 tonnes. Any imports from the U.S. must be certified as free of karnal bunt. Production Outlook Total winter wheat area seeded in the fall of 1996 is expected to decline from last year, due to the late soybean harvest.
Most winter wheat is planted in a rotation following soybeans.
Winter wheat is generally not planted following a previous wheat crop, due to disease carryover, and this will be an even greater restriction in the fall of 1996 given the high levels of FHB in the 1996 crop. The corn harvest is usually too late for winter wheat to be planted afterwards, and corn also can carry diseases which affect wheat. As a result, winter wheat area is expected to decline by close to 30 per cent, to around 250,000 ha, for 1997-98. A major shift in varieties seeded is expected, from SWW into HRW and SRW varieties, which now have yield potential equal to soft white varieties, with better resistance to sprouting and FHB infection. HRW varieties are also eligible for significant protein premiums.