If you draw three, you might either make a third king on the first card drawn or you might end up with what amounts to a kicker. In video poker, two pair is two pair and all kickers are equal. Many readers said they enjoyed the column, but a good share of them missed my point. I wasn't saying that it doesn't matter which way you bet. I was explaining that, in the absence of information, everything appears equally likely.
Probability is a measure of our ignorance.
If we know everything about handicapping an event, down to the most remote influences of atoms and consciousness, then we also know the outcome. Odds, football lines and probabilities are terms we use to estimate the chances of random events. But in the whole history of the universe, there has never really been one single random event. That's their field of expertise and mine is making lines . Everything is influenced by everything else in predictable ways.