Chips Few would look to the world of semiconductors for prophets but, until last year, Intel cofounder Gordon Moore certainly was the man. In 1965 he forecast that the number of transistors packed onto a silicon chip would double annually. In 1975 he had to revise his prediction to every two years. Then the pace of invention speeded up and, until recently, the industry rule was around 18 months.
More transistors mean a chip can perform more functions, while costs drop.
Paul Packan, a key Intel researcher, took a stronger tack, predicting chip miniaturization would encounter serious roadblocks this year. The reason is grounded in simple physics. Transistors, the switches that perform much of a chip's work, will become so minuscule that it will be difficult to predict the course of an electric current. Wires connecting switches are now one five-hundredth the width of a human hair. To go smaller, chip makers need new technology to image chips onto a silicon wafer.