When scientists compete for grants they face strong incentives to exaggerate problems and their competence at dealing with them. For example, world-wide there are only about 100 to 300 scientists with the qualifications to be considered experts in the field. An even smaller group have produced the majority of credible, peer-reviewed scientific papers. Because the policy consequences of cutting greenhouse gases are huge, all sides in the debate have stakes in the outcome. Coal produces and users, for example, minimize the dangers.
Greens seeking reasons to mandate a sustainable culture and economy, exaggerate the problem.
At our conference I learned that qualified scientists are 99 percent confident about several facts. Each has important implications for public policy, human welfare, and ecological systems. Here are a few. First, global greenhouse gases are increasing due to human activities. Second, regardless of what America and other developed nations do in the next decade, there is no reasonable scenario in which atmospheric CO2 will not double.