Some industrial and commercial participants are struggling with new direct access concepts. Finally, some issues such as asset divestiture may accelerate or retard development. Chart 2 describes the ECAR versus PJM spread historically through time. Chart 3 shows forward physical prices at PJM Western Hub at the end of January. Chart 4 compares historical PJM physical forward prices to spot prices through time.
Forwards are above pool prices for certain months, below during other months.
Chart 5 Chart 5 describes the forward spark spread for PJM and natural gas in late January, 1999. In December, gas is expensive relative to power, resulting in undesirable margins. Chart 6 Chart 6 shows historical spark spreads through time. Chart 7 describes the regional implied heat rate. This can easily identify what units should be running during a period.