In fact, the QDR 1997 report opened with a section that specified the assumptions about the future security environment that were used in guiding the review. Theoretically, there should be no shortage of futures studies that could be used to form the basis for deriving the future security environment assumptions of QDR 2001. A recent survey identified over 50 academic or professional studies conducted since 1989, the approximate end of the Cold War. As in ancient Rome, the future is a popular topic for serious speculation. However, there are severe problems in attempting to apply the results of these futures studies to effective policymaking.
Many studies begin with a clean slate, taking scant interest in previous, related work.
An unedited compilation of these studies would constitute a modern Sibylline oracle, capable of generating much debate, but not a basis for policy. To construct a policy requires some sort of baseline consensus from which implications and issues can be examined in an analytical context. This survey attempts to derive such a baseline for the years 2001-2025. The methodology adopted is straightforward, but apparently unique among futures assessments. Thirty-six existing studies concerning the future security environment were selected based on the criteria discussed in chapter one.