The scale of human activity is threatening to seriously alter ecological functioning at a planetary level. Human technology has reached a level which gives small groups the potential to threaten the lives and livelihood of millions of people. At the same time, this technological capability could be used to solve the myriad of problems that we now face. Something must change. Estimates of how far we are from the onset of possible crisis conditions vary, but the general indications are that we have only a few decades at best.
Normative scenarios are preferred images of potential futures.
If a specific plausible future state is defined, in this case a normative global outcome, it then becomes possible to work backwards and determine the events and developments that would have to occur if the envisaged end state is to eventuate. The definition of the optimistic outcome depends on the set of framing assumptions we make. We must decide who is choosing, and what they value. This could easily become an elaborate exercise, subject to the criticism that the diversity of perspectives in the country, let alone in the world, is so great that no such effort could ever come to a satisfactory conclusion. If, however, the scope of the answer and the corresponding assumptions are kept simple, it is still possible to say something useful.