Generally, the minnows have won. Start with the fact it's easier to replace a few hundred modems than a few hundred thousand modems. It's also easier to track a few thousand users than 10 million - easier billing, easier customer service, easier everything. Sure, they'll be a new move by the majors to cut-off small fry from the backbone, but now there are three dozen backbones. There's a big Clue here for everyone, no matter who you're competing with.
Minnows die when concrete hardens.
As long as things stay liquid, it's happy days. Andy Parker of Mercantec brought them to my attention during Internet World, and they follow some key Clues. They set real expectations, focused on a niche, marketed in the real world, and leveraged partnerships as they came along. The man was looking, Andy says, for some retirement income. This beats mowing lawns.