Striking a single key produces a single tone. Striking several blindly means dissonance. But striking a group of keys in a coordinated way produces a chord. The biggest problem facing us, however, is how to measure all these risks in terms of their potential likelihood, their possible consequences, their correlations and the public s perception of them. In 1998 I contacted risk managers in North America, Europe and Australia to ask about their progress in developing an integrated methodology for assessing all risks, for making the keys work together.
Most organizations measure different risks using different tools.
Actuarial projections are employed for expected loss levels where sufficient loss data are available. Probabilistic and quantitative risk assessments are used for toxicity estimates for drugs and chemicals, and to support public policy decisions. The quantitative tools are often too abstract for laymen. The qualitative lack mathematical rigor. Like the player piano, we need a proper piano roll to produce music.