Pattern-finding is the essence of learning, and reflects a natural human need to make sense of the environment. But we are often misled by specious patterns. Innumerate people are often victims of pseudo-science. Pseudo-science tends to rely on hypotheses which are not falsifiable . Karl Popper criticized Freudianism for its immunity to falsification .
People often misunderstand probabilities.
You draw one from a hat and only look at one side. People can be misled by how questions are framed. Ann graduated from college in 1988 with a degree in women's studies, has an assertive personality, is currently unmarried, and works in a bookstore. Ann graduated from college in 1988 with a degree in women's studies, has an assertive personality, is currently unmarried, works in a bookstore, and is active in women's rights issues. The first scenario is more likely by definition because it has one less condition.