Many arenas have their own wind and noise conditions, as well as other factors. For example, in baseball, it is a rare game when the score is low in Colorado. For example, if a team has clinched a playoff spot and is going up against the worst team, it its all. Likewise, a team may be in spot to knock a team out of the playoff. Or, it may want to revenge a bad loss earlier in the season.
Rivalries also push many of the statistics out the window.
In the more heated ones, it makes no difference how good or bad one team may be compared to the other, as the games are usually close. Use the knowledge you gained to make your bet, not emotional considerations. You may have grown up liking a team but that does not mean you have to bet it to win every time. The same holds true for your alma mater. By the same token, be selective in your bets.