For many traders, the working day can be uncomfortably long. From this perspective, it is perhaps no surprise that the environment we face today here in Asia seems so different from the one we enjoyed a year ago at the 1996 Conference. One Year Later. Today I would like to discuss the key drivers of change between late 1996 and late 1997 in Asia, and how we should respond to the new challenges. In looking at the key factors underlying the changed environment, a good starting point, as in any diagnosis, is the symptoms.
Excess capacity can be a contagious symptom.
Thai chemical companies are dumping into Taiwan. Steel inventories are rising in Taiwan despite a recovering domestic construction sector, as imports flood in while exports to South East Asia wane. They raise the threat of competitive price reduction as the economies in the region seek to shift the pain of this symptom from one country to another. A second key symptom is clearly stress in the financial systems of a number of countries. This is being felt from Thailand to Japan, and we all appreciate just how debilitating this can be.