Inflows of transfers are also down due to declines in both immigrant inflows and collected Non Resident Withholding Tax. Real export growth should double next year to four percent in response to a lower exchange rate and robust international economic growth. A more moderate NZ Dollar should help revive New Zealand's tourist earnings. New Zealand's geographic trading pattern has changed. For the year to May 1997, Australia and the U.S. remain New Zealand's traditional first and third largest markets by value, but half of New Zealand's top twenty export destinations are now in Asia.
Japan is still New Zealand's second largest market, despite falling sales over the last year.
The year to May 1997 has been something of an anomaly on the geographic trend, with falls in export values in many Asian growth markets and considerable growth in North American and some European markets. With import demand expected to accelerate in Asia during 1997-98 and the NZ Dollar weaker, New Zealand exports should begin to recover in Asian markets. May. The Government is counting on greater regional and global trade liberalization to expand market access in future, but much will depend on greater New Zealand business investment in value-added product and overseas market development.