Internal politics also inhibit Syria from making a peace that enemies would portray as traitorous while raising popular demands for democracy and higher living standards. The dictatorship has no wish to reduce the size or budget of an army sustaining its rule. In short, Syria's hawkishness has been rational . For Asad, it is a far more profitable strategy to speak in tones of reasonableness and cooperation while hoping the future will bring opportunities to escape Syria's weak position. Being so isolated, relatively poor and weak, and with much of its army tied up in Lebanon , Syria is unlikely to engage in unilateral aggression on Israel or other neighbors.
Radical states pose a long-term threat to regional stability.
Nevertheless, a combination of U.S. power, Arab opposition, isolation, division among themselves, Israeli power, and recent defeats constrain them from acting as they would like to do. The Alawites comprise only about 12 percent of Syria's population. On Syria's political culture, see Rubin , The Arab States and the Palestine Conflict, op. Syria also encouraged al-Amal to attack Palestinian refugee camps in Syria in the 1980s. Permitting Syrian Jews to emigrate is an example of Asad's efforts to make gestures to Washington.