The rotation of industry groups are wrong. I would favor the the higher number. Future earnings are based on rosy linear type projections.
None anticipate a downturn in the economy.
Earnings growth have been fueled by cost cuttings, not by the ability to raise consumer prices. This is a great insight, and period of erratic trading would seem to be typical and indicate insider's dumping of stocks to a public still committed to buying. A topping action could continue for awhile before the bear market started in earnest. But the start of a bear market does not necessarily have to be signaled by an dramatic day one decline, like in 1987 or 1929. There have been some different variables involved, and chaos theory would suggest any change in starting conditions, no matter how small, can and will produce wildly different endings.