I don't have accurate numbers on how this will affect planting decisions. In some cases, growers will replace surface water with groundwater, where the expense is manageable. A number of growers are replacing electric motors on their pumps with diesel engines, using a state cost sharing program that helps them pay for the high cost of the diesel engine. This program has been very successful. In some cases, decisions are still being made about how much rice to plant.
Prices are down significantly from last year and costs continue to rise.
Grower response to these economics vary widely as do their individual fiscal circumstances. Growers with low debt in land and equipment are more likely to plant even with a poor price outlook because their cost structure is more favorable. Those who rent land or have a mortgage, or have high fixed costs due to equipment will have a very difficult time making a profit this year. However, they still need to farm to service their debt. So, economics of the crop do not exclusively dictate planting decisions.