However, much of the wheat feeding occurred in the summer of 1996, before the feed grain marketing year began. World wheat and coarse grain carryover stocks are increasing only very modestly this year. World grain stocks as a percent of utilization are expected to be the fourth lowest on record, providing only a very small reserve to offset possible future weather problems. An El Ni o weather pattern developed in late spring of this year. It also tends to be associated with lighter than normal monsoon rains in India, and drought in South Africa and Australia.
Drought appears to be developing in Australia and South Africa.
South Africa fluctuates from a modest corn exporter in years of favorable yields, to a modest importer in years of low yields. Australia normally exports barley and grain sorghum, and is a major exporter of wheat. Along with a major weather event from El Ni o, the highest oilseed prices in several years caused some grain acreage to shift into oilseeds, particularly in Canada, parts of Europe, the United States Sorghum Belt, and possibly China. China shifted from a corn importer the previous two marketing years to a net export position in 1996-97. Its exports in the current marketing year are estimated at 100 million bushels, well below the level of the early 1990s.