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Economists tend to start biting their nails when they see the price of oil start to rise.
One way to remember the timing of recessions in the US economy over the past 30 years is to think back to what are called oil shocks a steep rise in oil prices. The first shock occurred at about the time of a long-run slowdown in productivity in the U.S. and much of the western world. Some economists are arguing that it may already be too late, the seeds of recession have already been sown. Let's first look at the historical experience. The graph below looks at the behavior of oil prices and GDP growth over the past 40 years.