At the wholesale level, the ratio has actually been falling over the course of the past year. A strong consumer sector figures prominently in the forecast. Indeed, the Conference Board's consumer confidence index peaked at 118.7 in January, its highest level since the summer of 1989. Although the index dipped slightly in February, the University of Michigan's index of consumer sentiment rose to 99.7. As the current expansion heads into its seventh year, some observers have asked whether its longevity implies anything about its sustainability.
Economists have no standard for a typical expansion.
Comparisons with recent business cycles indicate that the current upswing is by no means the longest. The average growth rate from 1961 to 1969 was twice as large. Although such comparisons are natural, they provide little evidence for predicting the next downturn.