At least some of you are here because you read my article in the January Analog, in which I said that the Earth's human population is rapidly running ahead of its food supply and faces catastrophe, along with Steve Gillett's argument that we will surely rein in population growth and increase food supply enough to avoid trouble. Per capita grain production peaked a decade ago and has remained roughly steady since.
Population continues to grow.
Agricultural land is rapidly being degraded and preempted, while irrigation water is in ever shorter supply. It therefore seems very unlikely that we will continue to be able to feed people as we have in the past. I would like to be able to tell you that the picture has improved since I wrote that article. But it hasn't. China has gone from exporting 8 million tons of grain in 1994 to importing 16 million tons in 1995, partly because of loss of agricultural land and partly because of rising prosperity, which increases demand.