But if, for some reason, it does poorly, well, these were always going to be tough elections, so while not enhanced, legitimacy is maintained. The spin also helps to increase its vote. In the Looking Glass world of modern politics, if the punters think you are going to canter in, they are more likely to vote for your opponent, even if they want you to win. That is those who bother to vote. If you are the favourite, then these no shows are more likely to be your voters.
Expectations therefore have to be managed down.
Read Scott Balson's latest account of institutional decay . If that is all that was going on in these two by-elections, there would be no point in booting up the computer to write about them. Many of the elements that made the last Queensland State Election a debacle for the Coalition, and a springboard for One Nation, are present again. Labor can only credibly run this spin because the seats look closer on paper than they really are. This is true, but only if One Nation or its successor were to run second, and receive Liberal Party preferences, as it did in the last election.