Incumbents are pitted against incumbents when two districts are melded into one. Increasingly sophisticated computer software makes a science of the process, but the politicians who make the calls frequently rely on more basic motivations such as ambition, partisanship and self-preservation, analysts say. When they are finished, you can predict which party will win before you even know who is running. The results often echo for a decade or more, triggering waves of retirements, upsets and political turnover that make this year's bitter scratching and clawing over the House Republicans' seven-seat margin of power seem trivial. Officials in both parties estimate they could see losses or gains of 25 seats or more in 2002 depending on the outcome at the state level in November.
Every congressman is keenly aware that redistricting looms.
This year's state races are made more crucial by the parties' relative balance on the state level. Republicans control both chambers of 18 state legislatures, and Democrats 19. Twelve legislatures are split. While more than 7,000 state legislative seats are up for grabs, Democrats have identified 418 crucial districts. In Michigan, they control the House by five seats.