By now the reader should have all the material necessary to concoct a political thriller, but there is more. The 2000 election could also lead to another round of divided government, including the kind of double flip we had in 1992-1994, as the party that wins back the presidency proceeds to lose control of the Congress. If Bush were to win this year, it is unlikely the Republicans would simultaneously lose the House and Senate. That prospect is even more likely for Gore and the congressional Democrats if they both win this year. Even the most optimistic forecasts for the congressional Democrats project only narrow majorities.
Many parliamentary systems tend to have unstable majorities and frequent changes of government.
The United States, in contrast, has typically had stable congressional majorities and long stretches of either Republican or Democratic dominance in national politics. Conceivably, the 2000 election could still turn out to produce that result if one party sweeps and then consolidates its position. For example, if the Republicans win, they might weaken unions as a political force through legislation, and make as many as four strategic Supreme Court appointments. But this may also be a seesaw political era of narrow and temporary majorities for which our past offers little guidance. Instead of a clear-cut party victory, the 2000 election could end up producing a kind of coalition government more common in parliamentary systems.