However, the next couple of years are unlikely to see a strong rebound in farm prices and market income for major crops, unless global crop output drops significantly. For food prepared at home, the CPI in 2001 is projected to rise 2 to 2.5 percent while food away from home is expected up 2.5 to 3 percent. Continuing large meat production, lackluster growth in exports, and a slowing domestic economy may pressure meat prices downward. The Commission recommended specific legislative approaches to assure an income safety net for producers, enhance risk management options, support conservation and environmentally beneficial practices, improve agricultural trade opportunities, revise individual commodity policies, and assist small and limited-resource farms. Japan's government is revising its agricultural policies and programs to stem the decline in self-sufficiency in food production, and to ensure that its farm program expenditures will be exempt from reductions required under World Trade Organization rules.
Major initiatives are underway to change the structure of farming and to make it more efficient.
Japan's new policy stance explicitly recognizes that food security depends on continued imports and available stocks, as well as on maintaining domestic production capability. They have also adopted various business strategies to manage demand for greater volume, broader product lines, and year-round availability. Landowners most likely to experience the effects are those in close proximity to existing population centers or planned growth areas. One of the greatest impacts of smart growth policies on local agriculture will be changes in farmland values because farm real estate dominates total farm assets. The U.S. sheep industry continues a long-term trend of negative growth that has seen inventory shrink from a 1942 peak of 56 million head to 6.92 million head on January 1, 2001.