Worldwide, only one in ten new products succeed in the market. Of the roughly 6000 new chemical substances currently on trial for their potential as new pharmaceuticals, perhaps only one will become a successful new drug. There is also a good deal of research that shows that billions of dollars spent on new equipment like machine tools and robots and so on since the 1980s have been wasted. Innovation is also risky because it is so unpredictable. Very knowledgeable people can get their predictions in this field hopelessly wrong.
Innovations often succeed in unpredictable ways.
The computer and the Internet were developed as tools for scientific research with no idea of their mass market appeal. When the laser was developed it really had no commercial applications, and now it has a wide range of uses from surgery to CD players. It took some time before it was realised that it would be much better if the glue was put on the now ubiquitous little notes. The sheer speed of changes in technologies and markets adds to the risk of innovation. When Sony developed the camcorder, it estimated it would have a six-month lead before competitors produced a better product.