Large scale infrastructure failures are likely with unknown political, economic and military effects. South Africa is way behind the curve and expects significant disruptions. Libya recently emerged from economic isolation and is also way behind. Nigeria is beset by corruption, AIDS and tribal warfare. The combination of Y2K and AIDS will set the African continent back a generation.
Prognosis is for large scale infrastructure collapse continent wide.
Probable that energy shipments to Western Europe will be disrupted. Probable that health care, energy exports, transportation and nuclear power will be impacted. Ukraine's Chernobyl nuclear plant recently restarted and then shut down due to cooling tower leak. Don't even want to pursue that one. Finances, communications and basic life support likely to be adversely impacted by Y2K. United States is withdrawing personnel from Russia, Belarus, Moldavia and Ukraine due to Y2K concerns.