If we try to observe the nesting habits of ducks and geese by paddling up to the nest every day, we will be observing how they respond to us, not how they nest. The first step in finding out whether it will flood or not is to go to the elders and ask them what things influence breakup the most. If there is lots of snow in the mountains, and it runs off quickly, and the river ice is thick from a cold winter, the ice will probably jam, and the village will flood. If there isn't much snow, or if the snow melts gradually, and if the ice is thin, the river probably will not flood. However, some years there might be little snow in the mountain, but the rate of runoff is fast.
Many combinations are possible.
While we cannot control the amount of snow, we can measure its depth. We can weigh it or melt it to see how much water is in each foot of packed snow. While we cannot control the thickness of the ice, we can measure it daily. While we cannot control the rate the snow melts, we can record the number of days the temperature is over 32 degrees, and the number of hours each day the snow is melting. As a long term project, do this.