The overwhelming majority of the 30 million people infected with HIV, the virus that causes AIDS, are doomed to die because they live in countries that cannot provide adequate health care. National leaders will have to take tougher stands than they have in the past to institute effective prevention programs, which take many years to get into full gear, the UN officials said. At a news conference here, Unaids officials painted one of the gloomiest pictures of the HIV epidemic since it was first recognized in 1981. HIV now infects one in four adults in two African countries, Botswana and Zimbabwe. HIV infection rates exceed one-third of the adults in some major African cities and reach 70 percent of women tested in prenatal clinics.
Many infected women pass the virus on to their babies.
Countries south of the Sahara account for the world's 21 highest rates of HIV among adults aged 15 to 49, the most sexually active segment of the population. In 13 of the countries, HIV has infected at least 10 percent of adults. South Africa, Namibia and other countries could soon reach a 25 percent adult infection rate unless national leaders initiate strong prevention programs similar to those in Senegal, Tanzania, Thailand and Uganda, UN officials said. Nearly all are doomed to die from AIDS because few can afford basic care, including the costly combinations of drugs that have helped keep the virus in check among HIV-infected people in developed countries. AIDS is now on the verge of moving into the top five leading causes of death in the world, overtaking diarrheal diseases.