If the market is calling for a rise, the Fed comes through. Many weeks ago the market believed the Fed would raise rates by 25 basis points when they met in June. The Fed left rates unchanged. We'll never know for sure, but a pattern is fueling my suspicions. Markets are always getting surprised.
Rains come to a dry Midwest and corn prices fall.
On average markets do a pretty good job of guessing prices, but there are lots of errors. That is, unless it's the Fed Funds futures contracts over the past couple of years. These markets never seem to miss. The only way that can occur with regularity is if the Fed is shaping their policy to the market's expectation. This is bizarre.