To confuse matters further, unpredictable external events can hasten their onset. While forecasting is the bread and butter of many economists, suffice it to say there is no consensus on how best to predict recessions. It is also important to remember that when the national economy goes into recession, not all areas of the country will be affected equally. If the next recession hits the computer industry harder than the agriculture sector, for example, Silicon Valley hot shops will probably suffer more than their rural counterparts. But whether the business of a town is cows, chips, or cow chips, recessions are inevitable and they put hot shops at risk.
Recessions are kind to few and cruel to many.
While a discount store may thrive on consumer frugality, hot shops and other purveyors of luxury items are likely to lose business. George Whalin, publisher of George Whalin's Retail Management Letter, predicts that during the next downturn the typical hot shop will see sales revenue drop by as much as 25 percent. When consumers are flush with cash, they might not hesitate to purchase a bottle of premium barbecue sauce. In hard times, they may look for less expensive alternatives. Six Ways to Beat the Next Recession To help hot shop owners prepare for the next recession, Fiery Foods Magazine has assembled a list of suggested steps.