But elsewhere, the fruits hang low, easy to pick. Projects to refurbish inefficient power plants in Poland, for example, have cut greenhouse gas emissions at one-tenth the cost in the West. Trading would let investors earn valuable emission permits while the Polish hosts get new technology. With trading, the cost is lower by half or more. Politically, however, the Kyoto trading system will fail, because it is a shell game .
Most permits are likely to be sold by Russia and Ukraine.
In these countries, combustion of fossil fuels, the main source of greenhouse gas emissions, has fallen steadily as the economies collapsed. Their emissions in 2008 to 2012 will be far below the Kyoto targets. But declining living standards are not a sustainable way to slow global warming. When the economies rebound, so will emissions. And absent America, no other major country will implement Kyoto's costly commitments.