But not one of them has allowed for such a course-changing event in their forecasts. And those that replace them will be very different. My point is that the time's arrived when both punters and pros need to be more conscious of the possibility that our present expectations could be thrown awry at any moment. Though it's too soon to say the bubble is bursting, Wall Street's gyrations over the past fortnight make it reasonable to wonder if that long-expected event may soon be at hand. And that makes it reasonable to ponder some post-bubble scenarios.
Hope springs eternal, even in the breasts of dismal economists.
Many are entertaining the hope that the bubble won't burst so much as spring a leak. I fear this is the triumph of hope over experience. A bubble by its nature will burst. When the Nasdaq comes down, wealth will be destroyed. It ceases to exist - and so can't simply be transferred to the Dow.