It has imported some high-tech naval vessels and jet fighters from Russia, and is interested in acquiring an aircraft carrier. However, serious resource limitation will necessitate its budgetary priority to be placed on nuclear and missile modernization. As a result, Chinese nuclear force will be strengthened while its size remains modest. Japanese analysts understand that China aims some 66 IRBMs at Japan. Due to a drastic change in the public mood, the Japanese government may further cut its economic aids to the PRC if Chinese hostilities continue.
Missiles are the only viable military threat for Japan.
China's conventional naval and air force capabilities are very limited and will be so for decades to come, even if the above modernization and professionalization are achieved. These forces will be easily destroyed if an armed attack occurs. Whether Japan intervenes in the Taiwan Strait will be determined by the level of U.S. commitment to Taiwan, by any means Chinese efforts to deter Japan with nuclear missiles. Japan has been within the range of Chinese IRBMs for the last thirty years, and the Japanese do not feel any additional threats from these existing missiles. Given the above parameters, the United States and Japan need to follow the current status quo policy by setting up the modus operandai of the bilateral alliance and improving its deterrence function.