North America's security environment is changing again. Russia retains the bulk of the former Soviet strategic nuclear arsenal, currently numbering some 10,000 warheads. Multiple-warhead intercontinental ballistic missiles, the most destabilizing component of US and Russian nuclear forces, are to be eliminated by 2003. The risk to North America posed by these weapons has diminished with the reduction in tensions, and additional security will be achieved as arms reductions go forward. Potential challenges to continental defence remain, however, especially if one looks beyond the near future.
Nuclear weapons continue to occupy a central role in Russian military doctrine.
China also maintains strategic nuclear forces able to reach North America, and is continuing to modernize its intercontinental systems. The proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and their means of delivery is another concern. A number of states have acquired, or are seeking to acquire, nuclear, chemical and biological weapons, as well as ballistic missile delivery capabilities. Intercontinental threats constitute a longer-term problem. None of the nations with the potential to develop this capability is expected to possess ballistic missiles able to reach NorthAmerica until well into the next century.