Maine, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Vermont and Connecticut. That may be the most plausible portion of the best-case scenario for McCain. All but Connecticut allow either independents or all voters to cast ballots in either primary. That's good for McCain, whose victories have been fueled by overwhelming support among independents and Democrats. In Connecticut, only Republicans can vote in the GOP primary.
Polls show the race is too close to call.
Those five states combine for 102 delegates. That conveniently happens to be one more delegate than New York, where Bush and McCain are engaged in a brawl of negative ads. But McCain can't afford an East Coast draw, taking New England while Bush wins New York. He also has to win New York to remain competitive and offset losses elsewhere. Polls show the race is close, despite the efforts by Gov. George Pataki on Bush's behalf and ads unfairly attacking McCain's commitment to breast cancer research.