What is beyond dispute is the sustained, sharp increase in youth smoking, which promises big increases in lung cancer, heartdisease and emphysema in a few decades. The trend is particularly striking in view of the continuing, slow decline among adults. Among college students, over the last four years, the smoking rate rose from 22 percent of students to almost 29 percent. Even among African-American students, whose smoking rates are far lower than white students', the recent upward trend is sharp. A generation of young people, exposed to more education on the health consequences of smoking than any of their elders, evidently has decided to ignore them.
Nobody knows why, but there are plenty of competing explanations.
He says the turnaround coincides with the 1987 appearance of the notoriously effective Joe Camel, which persuaded huge numbers of young teens to sneak their first puff. Then coupon programs offering Marlboro Gear and Camel Cash took over, converting experimenters into addicts. A view is advanced by Kenneth E. Warner, a health policy economist at the University of Michigan and veteran anti-smoking advocate. It's the price, stupid, he says. Tacticians of the anti-smoking movement say the rise in youth smoking is a discouraging setback.