It would seem that the resistance is greater and better organized than those who planned the operation had assumed. This significantly slowed down its course. After the first surprise attack on the village of Prekaze at dawn on 5 March in which many houses were burned to the ground, the punitive expedition needed much more time to reach other villages. D evelopments since the evening of 6 March escalated to what could be called a small local war. M ost speculation over the past few days has been on the strength of the resistance and the number of arms it has at its disposal.
Evaluations range from a few hundred to a few thousand armed combatants.
If there are just a few hundred, while the conflict is very dangerous, it will not inevitably expand. But, if the reaction to the Serbian punitive expedition has led to wider mobilization and the formation of units with over one thousand men and a central or coordinated command, then the conflict could become much more serious. We would then see an expanding spiral in which new military forces are engaged and increasingly heavy armament used with the conflict spreading to other regions where tensions are already high. S ince a strong emotional and political mobilization of Albanian public opinion has already started in Albania and Macedonia in support of their brothers in Kosovo, there is a risk that everybody's catastrophic scenario could develop with the general destabilisation of the region. A ll will depend on the way Belgrade chooses to move on from the present situation.