This, according to Carnegie-Mellon University Professor Alfred Blumstein, projects the anticipated surge in crime committed by youths. Because larceny, such as bicycle theft, stealing auto parts and shoplifting, is the crime of the youngest criminals. The peak age for larcenists is 15 or 16. Analysts and several law enforcement agencies attribute the decline in crime to the community policing program, longer prison sentences for violent criminals, crackdowns on guns, declining unemployment and just a plain intolerance for crime on behalf of the public. Criminalists at ERRI still contend that the greatest factor for the recent statistical decrease in crime is that violent criminals are being locked up in prison for longer periods of time.
Most criminals released from prison are repeat offenders.
The prison population in the U.S. has tripled in the past twenty years. ERRI also agrees with James Alan Fox and other experts that say that a dramatic increase in crime is expected in the near future. They usually aren't locked up and most don't think they will be. We are sure that the reported reductions in crime are, at least in part, due to their diligence. And, we are sure that better vehicles and equipment, computerization, and community policing schemes have made our streets safer, in at least some communities.