Currently, intelligence gathering and analysis is viewed almost exclusively through the prism of state security. But the interests of a particular state, or states, do not necessarily coincide with humanitarian needs. Providing more effective early warning requires the formation of new mechanisms to raise the alarm and then engage in early humanitarian action. The United Nations has difficulties in performing early warning functions, despite Article 99 of the UN Charter which endows the Secretary General with authority to warn the Security Council or other bodies of impending crisis. Prediction can be a very political act, offending the country targeted and risking criticism as interference in the internal affairs of member states.
Governments also find it difficult to disseminate early warning.
Bureaucrats in intelligence and foreign-policy agencies are frequently too concerned about career advancement to risk making premature statements about the course of events. Defense and intelligence agencies are reluctant to refocus their information-gathering efforts away from national security towards the broad range of possible humanitarian disasters. Even in donor countries where information is effectively gathered and analyzed, policymakers are frequently isolated from such warnings by thick layers of bureaucracy. NGOs are better equipped to engage in early warning activities. Just about the only capability that most NGOs lack is a way to disseminate the information they gather.