The Dow will go down. These so-called experts have no idea what's going to happen. Never confuse a forecast with a scenario. For example, I might look at a scenario for my company in which every customer defaults tomorrow. I'm not predicting that this worst-case scenario will happen, but I want to be prepared for it.
Most businesspeople have a hard time thinking about bad scenarios.
But probability is a way of analyzing events that occur many times. Most business decisions are one-time events. Thinking about probability doesn't help much with those decisions. Regret isn't the same as disappointment. Regret is sensitive to specific circumstances, and it adds a psychological factor to your choices.