Among the most important and widely used tools for making decisions in an uncertain business environment are scenarios. I use scenarios in the work I do with major corporations around the world, as well as with entrepreneurial ventures in Silicon Valley. Wherever uncertainty is a fundamental reality, scenarios enable decision makers to experience different possible outcomes before they happen. They can test various courses of action to assess their risks and rewards under each scenario, allowing their companies to influence the outcome and be better prepared for the future. By using scenarios, companies avoid being at the mercy of fortune's whims and can achieve mastery of their own destinies.
Good scenarios focus on questions that matter.
They are based on rigorous analysis and a wide-ranging imagination. A lack of focus leads to irrelevancy. A failure of analysis leads to implausibility. Scenarios that aren't backed up by imagination will almost certainly lead to being blindsided. A good scenario must be well founded and push the limits of one's thinking.