In fact, as many as half of the 21 Politburo members, including four out of the seven members of the elite standing committee, may retire. For example, Zhu is lobbying hard to see that he is replaced by his own man, Vice Premier Wen Jiabao. But there are other contenders, notably Li Changchun, the party chief in Guangdong province. Li is a Jiang favorite, although he has been criticized by some for lacking experience. The biggest unknown is whether Jiang will give up all of his posts, or whether he will follow Deng Xiaoping's example and keep control of the military by remaining chairman of the party's Central Military Commission.
Most analysts predict the latter.
Considering Jiang's recent blast against left-wing opponents of economic reform, there may be a push for a more moderate propagandist. Besides the all-important personnel debates, issues such as corruption, Taiwan and the economy have been looming large at Beidaihe. Since last fall, Jiang has been pushing the anticorruption issue hard. Death sentences have been given to two high-ranking cadres, most recently the former governor of Guangxi province, Cheng Kejie. The leadership was so determined to make an example of Cheng that they made him the subject of an exhibition in the capital exposing his corrupt ways and those of about 70 others.