We are all mired in historical circumstance. If you want to think seriously about the future, you have to think historically. There isn't any other way to do it. Otherwise you'll mistake the accidents of our current situation for some iron-clad law of the cosmos. You need to be aware of longer-term trends, how things play out.
History never repeats itself, but it does kind of rhyme.
We're living controversies now, like in the former Yugoslavia, that clearly have roots that are centuries old. Certain issues come up over and over again, there are certain trouble spots that flare up, and there are certain weaknesses in Western society that come up with regularity. If you don't study history and try to get a grip on these things, you'll never get anywhere. The best laboratory model for the 20th century is the 19th century. It's also an industrial society undergoing a technological revolution.