If a consequence is uncertain, state it as a probability. The weights will be different for different time periods. Compare the summary number for the various alternatives being considered, and choose that alternative that has the highest present value. The chapters that follow discuss in detail how these steps are executed. Please do not conclude from the neat, orderly look of this set of steps that most evaluative thinking follows this model.
Most judgments are snap decisions without formal analysis.
Systematically working down the series of steps must be reserved for the tough decisions when intuitive thinking seems inconclusive, or when the decision-maker asks someone to perform a formal analysis as a check. Making good intuitive decisions about when you need to, and do not need to, make formal cost-benefit decisions is a valuable skill. It also follows that experienced managers should not be so cock-sure of the results of their intuition that they scorn a formal analysis of the important decisions. From the outside the computer looks mysterious, but inside the black box, the operations are quite logical and unmysterious. The information used in cost-benefit analysis is always imprecise, sometimes ridiculously crude.