An unexpected calamity, such as an outburst of overseas saber-rattling. Or another emerging-market collapse. Thousands of dot- com highfliers will fail, taking the stock market and the economy down.
Economic vitality relies on dazzling bursts of technological creativity.
But long-term prosperity depends on a more educated workforce spreading the benefits of technological innovation. Problem is, the education system isn't keeping pace with rapid technological change and employer demands for a more skilled workforce. History may not repeat itself, said Mark Twain, but it does rhyme. A new economy emerged from 1870 to 1920, when the first Industrial Revolution, the era of coal and iron, gave way to the second Industrial Revolution, the age of electricity and mass production. Inequality widened precipitously, and business leaders and policy reformers worried about skilled-labor shortages.