Republicans need every seat to retain their majority on close votes while Democrats cannot squander seats when control is almost within grasp. Veneman served under Bush Veneman, who served as the No. 2 official at the USDA during the Bush administration and later became California's agriculture director, would be the first woman agriculture secretary if she was selected. While Veneman and Stenholm have agricultural backgrounds, sentiment was rising in some quarters for appointment of a farmer to be agriculture secretary. The Midwestern farm states are most concerned with corn, soybeans and wheat, while western states are more interested in livestock, citrus and vegetable issues. Southern farm states have a mix of key crops, including soybeans, cotton, rice and citrus.
Recent history shows the choice can go to a late-arising candidate.
President Reagan chose Illinois farmer Jack Block after looking at better-known prospects. Some agriculture policy experts say the attempt to predict the president's choice for secretary is a Washington parlor game with little practical value. The government plays a much smaller role in U.S. agriculture than it once did, when it could order the idling of millions of acres of cropland or cement huge grain deals with the now-defunct Soviet Union. Farm commodities are also keenly affected by stricter environmental rules issued by the Environmental Protection Agency and currency exchange rates, which are under the purview of the Treasury Department. Jim Moseley, who was in charge of conservation programs and the Forest Service under Bush's father, former President George Bush.