The modelling results presented so far in this chapter cover only one set of assumptions about possible future developments, namely that current policies and trends will more or less continue to dominate or shape the future world. This would probably result in very different development paths in the future.
Models are excellent tools to explore the answers to such questions.
As an illustration, the possible impacts of energy and food policy measures aimed at a more efficient use of resources were explored through a semi-quantitative modelling exercise for the globe as a whole. For all three exercises, the same medium population growth and medium economic growth are assumed, and the implementation of the policy strategies is assumed to be extremely fast. Within the energy sector, for instance, it is assumed that all new industries and power stations all over the world will be as efficient as the best available technology. And, for the agricultural sector, it is assumed that animal husbandry and management practices in developing regions converge to the higher productivity level of the industrial world. The results of this modelling exercise are shown in Figure 4.26.