Reports indicate that the Russians used cruise missiles to flush out rebel positions. The strategy apparently worked, as the rebels announced on August 23 that they were pulling out of the contested districts. That evening, Magomed Tagayev declared from the press office in Grozny that rebel forces were leaving their positions in southwest Dagestan. Basayev's spokesman said that the withdrawal was actually the beginning of Phase II of the operation to take Dagestan. However, scattered, poorly armed and outnumbered, the fractious bands of rebels are unlikely to renew a full frontal assault on Russian forces.
Rebels have no support from the Dagestani population and nothing to show for their campaign so far.
We believe that Basayev will now turn to the guerrilla tactics he is more familiar with and that are more applicable to his current situation. A prolonged guerrilla war in the North Caucasus means that Russia's deployment in the region will remain as the nature of the conflict changes from a conventional land war that favors the Russians to a guerrilla war, of the type seen in Chechnya and, in the 1980s, in Afghanistan. Although the guerrillas are trying to turn the conflict to their tactical advantage, Russia is likely to try to turn it to a strategic advantage. Russia now has the opportunity and the troop presence to regain influence in Chechnya, Dagestan, Ingushetia and North Ossetia. Russia's FSB, the successor to the KGB, announced this last week that rebel elements were moving into North Ossetia to disrupt ethnic relations in the already divisive region.