States serving huge chunks of the national caseloads, most notably giants California and New York, have been slow to comprehensively reshape administration of their welfare programs. The reasons range from complexity to philosophical resistance to mundane technical obstacles. Only six states, a recent national survey showed, were operating computer systems capable of tracking how long a recipient has been on welfare to enforce the new national five-year limit. So far, a year of nationwide hype about welfare overhaul may well have had more impact than new welfare rules themselves, as recipients absorb the message of revamped expectations surrounding aid to the needy. The possibility is that it won't happen, and that the humdrum reality won't fit the rhetoric.
New Jersey provides a good object lesson in the perils of hyping welfare overhaul.
During the past decade, under three successive governors from both parties, the state has undergone three different rounds of welfare revamping. The first began in 1987 under Republican Gov. Thomas Kean. But when the 1990 recession hit, caseloads headed right back up again, moving past the 120,000 mark by 1991. By then it was time for another round of welfare overhaul. The Bryant-sponsored Family Development Plan was signed into law by Democratic Gov. James Florio in 1992.