But the new research from the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, which many elected officials and political analysts rely on to gauge the mood of the black community, indicates that a significant change may be taking place. For one thing, blacks are more prosperous than ever and more conservative than is commonly appreciated. The center found that for the first time ever, more blacks than whites claimed they were better off financially in 1998 than the year before. It also found that the a majority of blacks favor stiffer sentences for drug use, violent crime and three strikes offenses, and that they generally support school vouchers. In the past, many blacks have reflexively voted Democratic not so much because the Democrats have offered them everything they need, but because the Republicans have offered nothing they need.
Republicans have no one but themselves to blame for the racial gap.
To date, they have blown every chance they've had to attract more blacks to their ranks. The Colin Powell debacle in the 1996 presidential election was a textbook case of how Republicans have mastered the knack of turning black voters from potential political friends into actual political enemies. But he never got out of the box, because the major conservative groups ganged up on him and threatened to go on the warpath against him if he actively sought the Republican nomination. It was obvious that this charming, articulate war hero somehow didn't have the right stuff for many in the Republican Party. It was also obvious, however, that if the party had embraced Powell, rather than ignoring him, and if he had actively stumped for the Republican presidential nominee, it would have forced large numbers of blacks to listen and ponder the party's political message.