Nobody can remain unmoved by the unspeakably cruel terrorist outrage in the US last week, and ASI extends its condolences to all those affected by the horrendous events in New York, Washington and Pittsburgh. Our thoughts and sympathies go out to the families and friends of those who have died or been injured in the tragedy. While the full effects of the attack have yet to be felt, it does underline the global linkage in basic financial and commodity exchanges. The extent to which feed raw material prices fluctuate now depends on the US reaction to the provocation, which might not take place for some time.
Markets are in for a period of considerable uncertainty.
Any rise in food prices will bring inevitable calls from high profile voices for more small scale, less intensive agriculture, with produce being sold through local farmers markets. But, while this may suit the more affluent leisure shopper, it cannot feed the whole population to the standard to which it is now accustomed. As combines clear winter barleys across the country, and some wheat is cut in the south, traders report that yields, although below average, are not as bad as feared earlier in the season. However, it is certain that the 2001 cereal harvest will be the smallest for many years, following the extremely wet conditions last autumn and spring that disrupted farmers cropping plans and drastically cut the planted area. Even this is at the high end of trade estimates, some of which are below 11m tonnes.