What the business environment will do. Metra work has involved both aspects. There are proprietary forecasting techniques, but they usually resolve down to anticipating the factors that will affect progress and making assumptions about timing and their weighted effect. The first step is to list anticipated factors. The second step is to organise the information so that a model can be built.
Models vary from the very simple to giant and very complex ones.
The success of the model as a forecasting weapon is dependent on how easy it is to change the assumptions as new information becomes available, and on how well the factors are weighted against each other. Thereafter, the forecast moves into the visionary vs the reactionary stage. We are also seeking out new and developing segments within the business. This usually involves careful discussions with industry watchers and participators as well as peripherally involved players. Here Metra Martech often have a better view than the specialist, focused client.