He said the first quarter of 1997 would be the best since 1994 and that the rest of the year also should be strong. Some 2.6 million net new jobs were created in 1996. Employment is going so well that some firms are offering their employees incentives for bringing in new-hires. Consumer confidence is firm. According to Mr. Toja's analysis, consumer sentiment is reaching the high levels of 1981 and 1982.
Prices remain modest because increases are hard to pass on.
American consumers have become very good buyers, he said. Consumer debt reflects wealth. That means wealth. Still, debt is up and consumer spending is slowing, he said. Recent moves by the Federal Reserve may slow spending even more, and Mr. Toja expects reduced consumer spending in the next two or three quarters.