Wage growth, for example, may be significantly above trend in a given quarter and then revert back to trend in following quarters. The following notes refer to the methods used in the tables and figures in this QWES, which differ in some cases from earlier editions. This technique uses maximum likelihood estimation to derive the optimal fit for a set of equations, each for the different components of a time series including trend, seasonal, cycle, and the residual. As with earlier editions, where possible we present seasonally adjusted quarterly data. In these cases, we present the trend.
Figure shows annualized changes of the trend component.
Same as Figure 3. All, male, and female are BLS data. The other columns are derived from BSMs. Male and female high school, male less than high school, and Hispanic male high school are seasonally adjusted. The other series are stochastic trends.