The monetary tightening of late 1999 and the increase in inflation due to the rise in oil prices have restrained private consumption, while export growth has also slowed. According to the leading indicators, activity is likely to remain moderate in the second half of 2000 reflecting less buoyant order books, even though consumer confidence remains at historically high levels . The unemployment rate fell to 1.7 per cent in early autumn. The big rise in employment was offset by the increase in the labour force, especially of foreigners. There are still few signs of wage pressures in the labour market, since the fall in unemployment is partly structural, as indicated by the reduction in the long-term unemployed.
Inflationary pressures are still low.
Underlying inflation has remained stable at around 0.5 per cent over the past few months, although the oil price hike has pushed headline inflation to 1.9 per cent in October 2000. Switzerland Monetary conditions have tightened The gradual tightening of monetary policy that began in the autumn of 1999 continued until mid-2000. This tightening has resulted in a slight appreciation of the Swiss franc against the euro since the first quarter of 2000, partly offsetting the depreciation against the US dollar. The projections include small interest rates rises in late 2000 and early 2001, in parallel to those expected in the euro area. As a result, monetary conditions are expected to become neutral.