At present the integration of models and observations is limited compared to what is possible and desirable. Circulation models, whether ocean or coupled ocean-atmosphere need to be validated against observing system analyses. The profitable feedback between models and data must be established to facilitate the use and evolution of the operating system. In the longer term, it is the Panel's expectation that the benefits of this interaction will become so clear that the managers of the observing system will treat model-data interaction activities as a fundamental aspect of the system. In essence, models are tools for interpolating and extrapolating information gathered by direct sampling, perhaps providing estimates of fields that are not readily observing directly.
Models can include both deterministic and statistical methods.
If information on actual conditions are provided as boundary or initial conditions for the equations, the equation solution uses this information to infer conditions remote from its source. For example, an ocean model forced at the surface by observed winds and heat flux will provide an estimate of subsurface temperature and currents. The accuracy of these estimates will depend on both the fidelity of the model and on the quality of the information provided to drive the model. It may also be necessary to correct the model's parameterization of important processes. This model-data interaction should, in theory, provide a more useful product.