Like This Tax time means muni time, a moment to check in on the municipal bond market to see how to make money while sidestepping the revenuers. I think that we've had a very positive credit trend for the last few years. That's turning, and we're already hearing from some states that their revenues are slowing down. Usually, the first areas where they see it are in things like sales taxes. Property taxes tend to be a lagging indicator.
Income taxes lag a bit, but they'll begin to track a slower economy.
I think it's fair to say that maybe last year things were as good as they can get for a while, and we're expecting to see a change. That's been hugely positive for the last few years, with far more upgrades than downgrades for most sectors. But I think that we'll see a more balanced picture of rating upgrades and downgrades, and if we go through a sustained period of weakness, we'll see more downgrades. And a few years ago, that was as narrow as 30. And you do see some gravitation toward more essential-service bonds that tend to weather business cycles better than things that are more cyclical.