Politically, Beijing probably hopes U.S.-Japan differences will prevent the creation of an U.S.led international united front pressing Chinese leaders for greater political change and liberalization. This can be seen by reviewing the difficulties Japan and China have with one another and how those difficulties reinforce other factors inclining them to closer relations with the United States. In the view of some knowledgeable analysts, the elements keeping China and Japan separate from one another and reliant respectively on the United States are strong enough to suggest that there is no meaningful triangular relationship among the three powers. In this perspective, Japan will move closer to China and China to Japan only under conditions where the United States remains closely involved in Asian affairs and in particular sustains a close military relationship with Japan. Thus, if the United States becomes seriously estranged from Japan, Tokyo will be less not more inclined to seek improved ties with China and China will be more, not less, suspicious of Japan.
Japanese leaders are of two minds about China.
China is a military threat of growing concern especially as it funnels new economic wealth into the improvement of military capabilities. Japanese leaders also worry about American-Chinese cooperation at Japan's expense. More practically, Japanese sometimes worry that American frustration with Japan's closed economic system and China's vibrant growth could prompt the U.S. to tilt toward China economically in U.S. policy. This pattern is said to resemble the Nixon-Kissinger frustration with Japan strategically and the American tilt toward China in the 1970s. At bottom, U.S. influence with Japan continues to depend heavily on Japan's ever closer economic interdependence with the U.S. market and Japan's continued dependence on the United States for security guarantees in an East Asian environment full of potential dangers to Japanese peace and prosperity.