Something of a systematic, global view of the metaphysics is required if we are to learn just how common each passage type is, relative to the others. The mathematics will be a significant advance over the illustrative method used so far. We can think of it as our fourth stepping stone along the metaphysical path. To ground the mathematics in reality, we should begin by recalling that Metaphysics by Default leans heavily upon naturalistic arguments for its support. Nicos passes to Thanos only if nature times death and birth to their mutual advantage.
Nature is the driving force.
Random actions are individually unpredictable. And the resulting averages are predictable. The temperature of each water molecule is random, unknowable. But the molecules distribute their individual temperatures about some average temperature. And a thermometer dropped into the glass will tell us this average temperature with certainty.