I refer you to it again and refresh your memory. It is worthy to note that the largest winning year EVER for this trade was 1998 in which the trade gained nearly 3600 points on the short side. We can't be certain, however, there is good reason to be cautious. It is very likely that the stock market will be vulnerable to a decline during this time frame, as it has been in the past. Caution is strongly recommended.
Inflation remains relatively low.
With a few exceptions a number of commodity prices are at lows dating back over 20 years. Economic conditions in some Asian economies decreases the possibility of default on loans, thereby adding stability to the stock market and international currencies. In addition, the market will also see the settlement of tensions in Yugoslavia as a positive development. As the peace continues optimism will grow and international conflict will not be a serious impediment to higher prices. A strong U.S. dollar attracts more capital into the country and into U.S. stocks, thereby boosting demand and providing stability and support.