Virtually all the other trajectories originating from Cuba during late February and early March were directed well away from the U.S. growing areas. Also, conditions were frequently unfavorable for transport. The mid-February event provides the most reasonable scenario. Included among these are geographical extent of blue mold, recent disease activity, and amount of cloud cover near the source region. Risk is associated with disease-development factors occurring near the source and along the forecast pathway .
More emphasis is placed on weather conditions than disease status.
Cloud cover along the forecast track, the potential for washout, and the timing and location of rainfall along the pathway are important factors. Elevated Threat levels can lead to elevated Risk levels. Disease activity increased in greenhouses and plant beds across southern Georgia, becoming common by early April, and then declined during the remainder of the month. Field activity was low during most of March and April due to dry conditions coupled with cool overnight temperatures. No other report of new outbreaks of blue mold was received during March or April.