But he is aware that he pulled out all the stops and called in a number of favours during his round of Middle East shuttle diplomacy before the March meeting, and has for the most part remained quiet. Not much, predicts Peter Ginoux, Salomon Smith Barney's veteran Opec watcher. And Oil Minister Ali Al Nuaimi appears in no mood to pander to the United States' needs. His stance is understandable. They are unlikely to repeat the mistake.
Most analysts agree that in the short term, such a target appears achievable.
Arguably the greatest threat to stability is Iraq - itself an Opec member, but removed from the cartel's quota system because of United Nations sanctions. Saudi Arabia is the strategic swing producer - Iraq is swing producer of the spot market. In recent months, Iraqi production has fluctuated between 900,000 bpd and two million bpd. It hopes to boost capacity to three million bpd. Such supply shifts can radically affect markets - particularly as Iraq is a significant supplier to the United States.