He's still a legit 15-1 in the Kentucky Derby. The horses ran gamely Churchill. Most experts were vanned off to the nearest bar where there was an ATM machine. Time on their hands. But that's no small deal.
Repetition precedes success.
The odds are, it will happen again. Being a little slow toward the outside is fine. Being relatively quick and on the outside is trouble. This isn't hindsight. I picked Monarchos right here last week, you can look it up.