Granted, the Street's forecasting record is spotty at best. But the experts have likely picked the winner in this contest. Investors, however, remain skeptical. Take James Joaquin, president of the Internet photo company Ofoto and a large AOL shareholder. But that hasn't stopped him from selling 10,000 and 20,000 share lots of AOL stock over the past few months, or from unloading options on the stock he is still holding.
Investors seem to have decided the marriage is doomed before the wedding cake has even been cut.
Analysts think they'll be vindicated on Jan. 31, by which point everybody now assumes the merger will have been consummated by the Federal Communications Commission and when fiscal 2000 results for both AOL and Time Warner will be released, and detailed expectations for the new company in 2001 will be unveiled. I would certainly cite that as one of the biggest concerns. For now, Wall Street has given its heart to Bob Pittman, AOL's president and the man designated to forge the merger. AOL's ambitious earnings promises have certainly been fulfilled under Pittman's watch. But doubt lurks when it comes to Time Warner.