The slow ebb of Moscow s reach is creating a security vacuum in the Russian Far East that has the potential to catalyze significant political and economic changes in the region. Whereas once the Far East was firmly under the control of the central government, it is now characterized by a complex mix of competition for influence between Moscow and regional governments, as well as among several regional actors, including China, Japan, and the United States.
Internal security is perhaps the most apparent threat Russia faces today.
But Russia s transition from communism also occurs in the context of an increasingly powerful China, uncertainty in Japan about its economic and military roles in Asia, and questions about the future of the Korean Peninsula. These processes combine with historical animosities and lingering suspicion among these countries to create numerous policy challenges for the United States. To assess the impact of this dizzying picture on the future of the region, Rajan Menon, Monroe J. Rathbone professor of international relations at Lehigh University and adjunct professor at The Harriman Institute, Columbia University, and Charles E. Ziegler, professor of political science at the University of Louisville, identify the various forces at work in the Russian Far East and outline several possible scenarios of balancing power there. They also discuss several types of events, such as disarray in the military, out-migration, defense conversion efforts, and resource competition, which are symptomatic of these forces. Menon and Ziegler argue that to date there has been a lack of clarity and attention in U.S. policy toward the Russian Far East.