The Met Office, Bracknell, United Kingdom 1. In 1999, the forecasts were revised and extended to cover a region from 2.5 o to 10 o south and from the Atlantic coast west to 50 o west.
Forecasts are now for gridpoint mean rainfalls.
Empirical forecasts will now be made for exactly the same predictands as AGCM forecasts. The AGCM forecast is largely controlled by sea temperature anomalies world-wide. The Atlantic SST anomalies are not as strong as those in the Pacific but also favor above average rainfall. The anomaly centres in the Atlantic are about 10 o northward of where they usually occur prior to an anomalously wet NE Brazil rainfall season. There is a small area of below average SST to the East of NE Brazil, which favours below average rainfall in NE Brazil.