Table 1 shows the value of standard deviation in C at selected stations. The mean skill over all 51 stations is given in the caption beneath each forecast map. The field significance is also shown, reflecting the probability of randomly obtaining overall map skill equal to higher than that which actually occurred. Field significance is evaluated using a Monte Carlo procedure in which the forecast versus observation correspondences are shuffled randomly 1000 times. The skill of the temperature forecast is the highest in winter and somewhat lower in spring in Canada.
Local skill are highest throughout western Canada and Ontario.
Local skills are rather low throughout most of Canada. Areas between the Rocky Mountains and the upper Great Lakes are expected to have a deficit in Apr-June precipitation Southern British Columbia and Atlantic Canada are expected to have above normal precipitation. Both atmospheric and oceanic indices have been showing a strong warm phase of ENSO for several months. Most statistical and dynamical models are predicting the current warm ENSO episode to weaken considerably during late spring and early summer 1998. Analysis of past moderate to strong episodes show a tendency for milder than normal conditions to persist through the early spring season in western Canada and then weaken in early summer.