Yet, it is often difficult to separate the effects on living conditions resulting from inclement weather from general inadequacies in infrastructure and lack of economic development. This methodological problem related to the measurement of the costs also affects policy choices. Ecuador s policy orientation appears to have been reactive, relying on relatively untargeted emergency relief. This study, however, recommends greater emphasis on pro-active and targeted development investment. This study finds that the economic and social costs of El Ni o in Ecuador have been substantial.
Most economic costs relate to losses of agricultural production and damages to infrastructure.
Increased health risks are also critical. Close to 300 deaths directly linked to the floods are to be lamented, and about a quarter of the Ecuadorian population has been exposed to increased risk of diseases and mortality. Outcomes suggest that most of the agricultural income losses are borne by small farmers in the production of rice, corn, coffee and cocoa, and to a lesser extent by agricultural workers in the sugar cane industry and banana plantations. The overall impact on the already high poverty incidence in the affected areas could be as large as 10 percentage points. For some, El Ni o was not a disaster but a boon.