For example, research and development spending has been used as an indicator for the demand for scientists and engineers. Had the projections for the 1990s been based on an average of the previous 30 years, the projections would have seemed optimistic during the first half of the decade, but would have proven reasonably accurate over the full span of the 1990s. This example also illustrates, as Finn points out, that it may not be possible to anticipate spikes and slumps in demand, but the average growth over the past 40 years should offer some insight into the trends that can be anticipated for the future. With regard to the labor market for scientists there are two distinctly different worst-case scenarios. First, for government agencies and other employers, the worst case is that degree awards stay constant while the demand for scientists grows at the highest rate we have seen over any ten-year period in the last 50 years.
Forecasting is still an inexact science.
As a consortium, ORAU carries out active programs with and for its members.