The likelihood of two events occurring together is lower than the probability of either alone. And, the probablity of getting two heads when flipping two coins is one-fourth, or .25. A second common error in judgment involves ignoring the base rate, or underlying probability of an event. In many high-risk situations, ignoring base rates is the same as tinking you are an exception to the rule. The way a problem is stated, or framed, affects decisions.
People often give different answers to the same problem stated in slightly different ways.
Usually, the broadest way of framing or stating a problems produces the most rational decisions. For example, to select a career, it would be wise to consider pay, working conditions, job satisfaction, needed skills, future employment outlook, and many other factors. LL intuition-, intuitio act of contemplating, fr. The contents of this site, including all images and text, are for personal, educational, non-commercial use only.