Executive Summary Policymakers often assume that public opinion is a reliable guide to making public policy, but they should not. Public opinion polling measures the wishes and preferences of respondents, neither of which reflect the costs or risks associated with a policy. Public opinion expressed in polls cannot inform policy choice, which requires attention to tradeoffs among values, to second-best possibilities, and to unexpected risks.
Polls are unlikely to be improved enough to help with policy choices.
We should not expect to see the day when polling can replace reasoned policy choices by elected representatives of the people. Despite all the fancy numerology surrounding modern polling, the extracted advice should not guide public policy. This paper shows how little polls tell us about public policy and why we should ignore the proffered guidance to policymakers. The Cato Institute Please send comments to webmaster .