Given the current rate of productivity growth, a rising gross domestic product and our sustained low unemployment rates, the most optimistic scenario is that this new economy will eventually produce rates of family economic progress similar to those of the 50's and 60's. The signs are encouraging. Real wage growth has been quite impressive since 1997, especially for low-wage workers. The unemployment rate of high-school dropouts declined from almost 12 percent in 1992 to less than 7 percent now. The unemployment rate among blacks is 7.3 percent, the lowest since the Bureau of Labor Statistics began compiling comparable unemployment data by race in 1972.
Productivity growth is only part of the picture.
The future of ordinary families, especially poor working families, depends a great deal on how the government decides to react to this new economy. Low-wage workers gained from a wide range of protections, including steady increases in the minimum wage, and the government made full employment a high priority. Throughout the 60's these policies were accompanied by federal wage-price guidelines that helped check inflation. There was also a strong union movement that ensured higher wages and more non-wage benefits for ordinary workers. However, in the 1970's and 80's things moved in a different direction for lower-wage workers.