NAPM's New Export Orders Index for May registered 45.6 percent, 1.7 percentage points lower than April s index of 47.3 percent. The Index has fallen below 50 percent in seven of the last eight months. Average leadtime for Production Materials remained unchanged at 45 days. Twenty industries from various U.S. geographical areas are represented on the committee. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month.
Responses are raw data and are never changed.
The resulting single index number is then seasonally adjusted to allow for the effects of repetitive intrayear variations resulting primarily from normal differences in weather conditions, various institutional arrangements, and differences attributable to nonmoveable holidays. All seasonal adjustment factors are supplied by the U.S. Department of Commerce and are subject annually to relatively minor changes when conditions warrant them. Diffusion indices have the properties of leading indicators and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction of change and the scope of change. The distance from 50 percent or 42.7 percent is indicative of the strength of the expansion or decline. With some of the indicators within this report, NAPM has indicated the departure point between expansion and decline of comparable government series, as determined by regression analysis.