True, most urban couples I met did adhere to the one-child policy. But since 70 percent of Chinese live in rural areas, the government's claimed fertility rate of 2.0 clearly was mathematically impossible. Since that figure undergirds the overall population estimate, the 1.2 billion number is equally suspect. What happens in China is therefore central to our species' fate in the 21st century. In particular, the question of whether we will act quickly and decisively enough to save ourselves from environmental self-destruction cannot be answered without considering China.
Intelligent action requires sound analysis and information.
Clearly, both China and the rest of the world have an interest in devising a more accurate measurement of China's vast population. Mark Hertsgaard is a leading environmental journalist who has frequently written about China. Inc. All rights reserved.