A country's risk only doubles when ethnically diverse, whereas the existence of a primary commodity raises the risk 46 fold. Two other factors, geographic dispersion and mountainous terrain, do increase risk, but not as much as one might be led to believe. Inequality and political repression were proved to be remarkably unimportant factors in conflict. Routes to Conflict Prevention Well-planned aid helps in two ways, by leading to faster growth but also by reducing a country's dependency on primary commodity exports. As the chart below indicates, a country's policy works in exactly the same way as aid, by leading to growth and reducing dependency on primary commodity exports.
Good policy makes aid more effective.
Moreover, good policy combined with well-planned aid can reduce the conflict risk rate by 30 percent. Without the right policies, though, aid can do little. Many of the countries examined had such bad policies that aid did little. Other countries were so totally dependent on primary exports that aid and policy could not reduce the risk enough. The postconflict setting adds more complicated layers to conflict prevention and risk assessment.