Let's put it this way, with current trends in the domestic and global economy, it's getting closer everyday. Our best guess is somewhere in the first to second quarter of next year unless the financial markets or economy go into virtual freefall from here. Suffice it to say that a slowing economy and slowing corporate earnings will be with us in the quarters ahead. Of course you have. The fact is that we are moving into the heart of the winter cold period and prices are significantly higher now than one year ago.
Oil prices are likewise significantly higher than one year ago.
Energy price effects on economic growth will simply not be a positive anywhere over the near term. Earnings expectations are adjusting to that fact. So are stock prices. This go around, the slowdown in the global economy is shining a light on the cyclical nature of technology capital spending. The unseen reefs and shallows of tech cyclicality were there from the start, it's just that now the ship is supposedly surprisingly running aground.