Although teams can change much more dramatically these days than in seasons past, there is still a lot of continuity in every team from season to season. We have 162 games from the previous season to guide us, both in terms of how a team is perceived by the linesmaker and how each starting pitcher is perceived relative to his counterparts on the same team. Therefore, we can make a reasonable estimate of what the price should be on a game between the Mets and Braves by looking at how such games were priced last year, or even earlier this season. This enables us to determine whether there is an overlay in playing either side, or whether the game is fairly priced. But therein lies the dilemma faced by baseball bettors.
Overlays are nice.
They are what we seek in every wager we make. We always want to have the edge on our side. We have a 20-cent overlay. Our dilemma is that the overlay suggests betting on a team that is expected to lose the game. Unlike football and basketball, where pointspreads enable us to bet on teams that we expect to lose but which can cover, we are betting on the straight-up winner of a baseball game.