No credible caller ever telephoned to accept responsibility for the bombing of PanAm Flight 103 over Lockerbie, Scotland, in 1988, Jenkins said. When a mysterious disaster on the magnitude of the EgyptAir crash occurs, the event is so rare that investigators must speculate on all possible causes. Those include whether the massive structural failure was caused by an explosion, and if so, whether deliberate sabotage might be behind the explosion. With the political fault lines coursing through the Middle East, and with the United States relationship with Egypt, considerations for security and threats of terrorism are always present. Two groups could be scrutinized If a criminal investigation was launched, two armed Egyptian groups labeled by the United States as terrorist organizations might fall under suspicion, say analysts and information sheets from the State Department.
Recent security crackdowns on both groups has significantly reduced their prowess, say analysts.
And leaders of both organizations have recently renounced terrorism and announced they plan to contest the Egyptian government through legitimate means. But, said Venzke, the security crackdowns have fragmented both groups and the leaders who declared the truce may not speak for all members. The Islamic Group claimed responsibility for the attack in November 1997 at Luxor that killed 58 foreign tourists. The group is also blamed for the 1995 attempt to assassinate Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak. The Islamic Group is known to be aligned with Osama Bin Laden's Afghanistan-based terror cells.