Dropout Rate Most of the research on this front shows a strong link between retention and dropping out even when differences in prior achievement, attendance, sex, race, grades, family background, and personality factors are controlled. Several rigorous studies, for example, have found that repeating one grade more than doubles the odds of dropping out of school. Students who repeat two grades have an 80 to 90 percent chance of dropping out. And it may even increase dropout rates. At the same time, the research offers no credible evidence supporting the benefits of social promotion.
Research suggests a number of complementary strategies schools can employ.
In many districts, student progress is judged according to vague criteria, making it difficult for staff to reach sound decisions about student promotion. Uniform standards that define expectations for success provide an external check on the teaching and learning process. They give educators a reliable, rather than arbitrary, basis for decisions about student progression. Although most use a combination of strategies to guide their decisions, the trend is for more states and districts to base promotion mainly on test scores. Testing experts, however, warn that high stakes retention or promotion decisions should never be made on the basis of a single assessment.