Since then, stocks have been gradually built up, but the ratio of stocks to consumption remains below the level considered by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization to provide a margin of safety necessary for world food security. Some are positive, such as the fragile economic recovery in Sub-Saharan Africa. In times of shortage, grain stocks can be released onto the world market to meet demand. Low stocks of grain means there is less of a buffer. Poor countries are now especially vulnerable to all these fluctuations because global food aid deliveries in 1996 fell to 7.5 million tons, less than half of the 16.8 million tons distributed in 1993, and the lowest amount of aid delivered in more than a decade, the report says.
Food aid is no substitute for increased production of food in the developing countries.
Already, Southern Africa, Central America and parts of South Asia are in the grips of dry conditions extending into drought. Forest fires are sweeping across Indonesia, and parts of South America are being battered by excessive rainfall. More agricultural research is needed to deal with these negative effects, such as how to develop drought-resistant crops, and how to manage water resources more efficiently. Such research is particularly important because 28 countries with a total population of more than 300 million people face water stress today, and by 2025, the number could increase to 50 countries holding more than 3 billion people, the report says. While water supplies tighten, demand for water will continue to grow rapidly, increasing 35 percent between 1995 and 2020, the report says.