Toward evidence-based medical statistics. The Bayes factor. Ann Intern Med. Primer of Biostatistics. Pharmaceutical companies engaged in clinical research programs, and physicians prescribing treatments to patients, reach decisions to proceed or not proceed after considering several variables.
Efficacy is one.
Others are side effects, costs, and competing treatments. A real opportunity for Bayesian analysis may be instead the development of patient-level predictive models. In the field of finance, several studies have shown that investors prefer to base their decisions on decisions rules rather than uncertainty, even if on average there is no difference. Bayesian neural networks combine multivariate and Bayesian methods, two of the most recent advances of statistics, and could have the advantage of keeping the technology inside. MA 02114 References 1.