In its Annual Energy Outlook 1998, the EIA predicted that electricity from renewable sources would barely increase, from 433 billion kilowatt-hours in 1996 to 436 billion in 2020. A 34 percent increase in the generation of other renewable energy is expected to be offset by a decline in hydroelectricity. The largest growth will be in the use of biomass and recovery of methane from municipal solid waste. Improvements in wind energy technology, such as larger, more efficient turbines, could triple U.S. wind capacity from 1.4 gigawatts in 1996 to 4.1 gigawatts in 2020. By the year 2010, the EIA predicts that renewables could contribute about 10 percent of the nation's total energy consumption and as much as 50 to 70 percent of U.S. energy by 2030 if government supported the effort.
Most experts believe that unlikely.