Redland Brick Inc. of Williamsport, Md., has seen the cost of firing up its kilns at four plants soar. The Energy Information Administration predicted in its latest energy forecast that prices will not ease much this year or next. And energy experts say prices could just as easily spike again if supplies lag and demand jumps during a hot summer or unusually cold weather next winter. Simmons helped craft a 1999 National Petroleum Council report that predicted that, over the next 15 years, natural gas demand will increase by 40 percent to 31.5 trillion cubic feet annually. With power plant construction moving at a fast pace, that demand level now could come in five or six years, says Simmons.
Natural gas is by far the cleanest-burning of fossil fuels.
Because it emits far less air pollution or greenhouse gases than coal or oil, environmentalists embrace it as a transition from hydrocarbons to solar technology or hydrogen fuel cells, still decades away from widespread use. Natural gas also is plentiful. An estimated 2,449 trillion cubic feet of reserves in the United States and Canada is enough to meet today's demand for 100 years. And there is no worry about cutoffs from unfriendly nations halfway across the globe. Nevertheless, the price explosion of the last year has prompted more than a few energy experts to wonder, only half-jokingly, whether a cartel had captured the natural gas market.