Face it, if you were an incumbent in 1998, you had to be pretty inept to lose. All of the county parties in the district that endorsed a candidate selected Zimmer. That should give you hint about who is going to win the nomination. Finally, the 5th district's Roukema faces another serious primary challenge from Garrett, a conservative Assemblyman who is benefiting from an infusion of cash from the Club for Growth. But Garrett is working hard, should have more money than in 1998 and can't be ignored.
Primaries are much harder to handicap than general elections.
Turnout matters in both, but the lower turnout in primaries adds to the uncertainty. That's why, if I were a betting man, I wouldn't wager on these primaries. Unless, of course, I was using Jon Corzine's money.