The US military presence in Korea is unlikely to change in the medium term. South Korea's Kim Dae Jung said he told Kim Jong-il that the US military presence in South Korea should remain even after reunification. China can probably see the benefit of the strategic stability offered by a US presence in Korea, as too does Japan. But in the longer term, improved North-South relations will eventually add to the pressure for a reduced US military presence in Korea. Similarly, it may become harder for the US to justify the expense and uncertainty of NMD if North Korea, for example, ceases to be a missile-equipped rogue state.
Japan sees economic opportunities and strategic benefit in North Korea's change of direction.
Japan has been working closely with the US and South Korea to give North Korea a soft economic landing provided North Korea gives up its missile plans. In the longer term however, Japan will be concerned about the implications of a dynamic united Korea. Russia too has an eye on renewing its influence in the peninsula. Russian President Vladimir Putin is to visit Pyongyang and Beijing in July where no doubt he will push his opposition to America's NMD agenda. Despite doubts about North Korea's bona fides and allegations that it is still intent on developing nuclear weapons and missiles, the Kim summit is an achievement of historic significance.