Yamazaki Mamoru, chief Japan economist with Barclays Capital, said the New Year holidays cut into the January figures. The seasonally adjusted January surplus was 843.4 billion, a 3 percent rise over December. But Mamoru said it is clear that poor export demand to the United States and the rest of Asia is hurting Japan. He said net exports are dragging down Gross Domestic Product. As a result, Mamoru forecast a low 0.6 percent rise in GDP for the next fiscal year, from April through March 2002.
Many economists see a revival in exports as key to a Japan recovery.
Japan's economy remains mired in a decade-long slump. But analysts say Japan's political vacuum is sucking any power from attempts to turn its economy around. But Mori remains one of the most unpopular leaders in Japanese history. Without a strong ruling coalition, experts say the government lacks the clout to stimulate Japan. Kamei said Wednesday an election to replace Mori should take a back seat to economic reforms.