Based on this assessment, I will offer several alternative futures for multilateral institutions in the region in the first decade of the 21st century. Inflation is coming down to the low double digits in China, and elsewhere is very much under control. Future growth prospects, however, are something of a matter of debate. With energy supplies the Achilles heel of Asian economic growth, this sector is always a matter of concern. The region's gargantuan infrastructure needs add to aggregate demand, but their very size suggest the degree of bottlenecks that inhibit supply, and raise questions about the sufficiency of national saving rates.
Political regimes exhibit more diversity that their economic counterparts.
But for the moment they all share in common a willingness to continue to open and liberalize their economies. It is in the security realm that the region's future is the most uncertain. The Korean peninsula, the Spratleys, and the Taiwan-PRC standoff all represent knotty diplomatic problems. While some progress has been made on the first two via multilateral negotiations, the third seems more intractable, and Taiwan may simply run out of time in pursuing its strategy of waiting for reunification until the moment when the two socieities and their economies are more similar. The rush of development will continue to bring with it cross-border issues ranging from the environment to small business management to energy, all of which will be better addressed in a multilaterial setting.