So, the BCC election provides evidence of organisational problems for Howard that were always there, as well as having the potential through a bad result, to amplify them. Overlaid on this is a likely Labor strategy to use the result to increase the momentum of the GST and make it almost a self-fulfilling prophecy that it will cost Howard the next election. Jim Soorley promised that he would run the GST as an issue. This would be consistent with what the Labor Party did in the two State by-elections. It is my guess that the GST had little effect as an issue in those by-elections.
Electors are reasonably sophisticated at working out what level of government to blame for issues.
But the ALP went fishing with dynamite in the by-elections, running every issue it could. Their operatives claim that the GST won the by-elections for them, particularly Woodridge. On the same basis, and taking into account Soorley's own statements, the GST is likely to get a run in the Council election. If there is a Labor win, it won't matter again whether it is a factor or not. The only way to know would be to run quantitative and qualitative research.