Meantime, though, even the strongest economies will struggle to post gains of better than 4 percent. That's well below the 7 percent official government forecast. The Singaporean government in April dropped its growth forecast for the year to 3.5 percent to 5.5 percent, from 5 percent to 7 percent. Walker said Singapore tends to have realistic forecasts. He expects poor data to force many other Asian governments to follow suit.
Risks are severe in Thailand, South Korea, Indonesia and the Philippines.
Low growth rates, coupled with high debt levels, could lead to renewed crises there, Walker said. The prospects are best in Hong Kong, Singapore, China and Taiwan. Hong Kong and Singapore are alone among Asian countries in having strong banking systems, Walker said. Taiwan has room to follow U.S. rate cuts. China is propped up by strong overseas investment and a fast rate of restructuring.