Never confuse a forecast with a scenario. For example, I might look at a scenario for my company in which every customer defaults tomorrow. I'm not predicting that this worst-case scenario will happen, but I want to be prepared for it. Most businesspeople have a hard time thinking about bad scenarios. But probability is a way of analyzing events that occur many times.
Most business decisions are one-time events.
Thinking about probability doesn't help much with those decisions. Regret isn't the same as disappointment. Regret is sensitive to specific circumstances, and it adds a psychological factor to your choices. We've all heard stories about entrepreneurs who mortgage their homes. The risk of losing your home makes sense for some people.