Experts differ on that one.
But they agree that capitation, in its various forms, is here to stay. HMOs no longer have much in the way of risk. The HMO will take 20 percent off the top, with very little exposure except for transplants, perhaps, or outpatient pharmacy. If HMOs can keep costs down and contract with stable physician groups, they'll get a guaranteed profit. Under the California model, it is sometimes those physician groups that are signing up HMOs, instead of the other way around.