If push came to shove, it could make life difficult for U.S. companies operating in China. The Bush administration has taken a low-key approach because it doesn't think the Chinese leadership would do stupid things just to save face after making a ridiculous demand. It is most likely right. But the stridency with which Chinese propagandists have milked the EP-3E incident to try to stir up the Chinese people suggests a regime that cannot always be counted on for rational acts. For all its success, China has plenty of problems.
Peasants are angry about being ripped off by corrupt municipal authorities.
Factory workers are being displaced as state-owned industries fold up. A huge floating population seeking work creates social instability. One of the oldest games in history is to find or invent an enemy as a means of diverting popular attention from the regime's own shortcomings. The People's Liberation Army has been building up to that for years, even to the extent of posing the U.S. as its enemy in its war games and planning its military buildup with the possibility of a conflict with the U.S. in mind. It is deploying submarines with the objective of posing a threat to U.S. Navy ships.