The long decades of import protectionism, export-led growth, and massive business and public sector debt accumulation have reached their absolute limits. US growth requires ever-rising foreign capital inflows. The US stock market, household consumption, and business investment are beginning to signal critical weakness.
Economic downturns can have destructive effects on global political stability and military security.
History's lessons make it clear that we must find ways to stabilize Japan's debt architecture and find replacements for reduced US consumption. Increasing emerging market middle-classes via private market financing will strengthen democratic institutions and reduce global security risks. Such an approach was recently put forward by the Council on Foreign Relations. This conference is about the consequences of war and peace - World War II, the Cold War, and the peace that followed both. We seem to understand the wars.