Most technologies take 20 years to become an overnight success. In terms of the Internet, we're at the bottom of the S curve. Everything we've seen so far is just the beginning. You have PCs, TVs and most other consumer appliances. If you want to find success, look for something that has failed for 20 years.
Marketers expect sales to rise steadily, rather than in bursts.
They overestimate growth in the early phase, and underestimate it at the upper end. Our expectations are fundamentally different from the way reality unfolds. Fifteen years ago, futurologists predicted the demise of books. The Web' s largest commercial success so far is a book ordering service. Each of these three forces will be important in its own right, but the greatest impact will come from the interaction between them.