It is still important to make long-term technology forecasts as accurately as possible. In other words, rapid insertion is a good hedge against a technology bet. The openness of a rapid-insertion architecture allows users to evolve their system independent of any particular vendor. In the desktop market, an open system allows a customer to switch vendors with minimal impact. Being a technology leader offers a distinct advantage for predicting technology directions.
Leadership explicitly implies influence on the market.
Nevertheless, leadership status can never guarantee long-term success. Marketing case studies abound on how the mighty have fallen while upstarts succeed. Technology systems differ from the stock market, however, in that the forces of technology change are more internal than external. In a subtle way, an open-system approach reinforces technology leadership. The relationship between openness, technology leadership, and technology prediction relies on having access to a good deal of high-quality information.