Let me try to convince you otherwise, and remember, it's only a fire drill. Warren Buffet, America's venerated top stock picker, now suggests that much of the economy's future growth is already built into the stock market, and hints at long term stock market returns of less than seven percent. You know what followed next. Household debt is at an all time high. The price of oil has tripled, and the labor market is tight.
Inflation is just around the corner.
Our book of the month club is reading Irrational Exuberance by Robert Shiller. It is impossible to predict with any accuracy what will happen to our economy and the stock market, but it never hurts to prepare for the worst, and hope it never happens. The next time you log on to your favorite on-line retirement planning calculator, try this fire drill. Instead of using the standard portfolio growth rate of 7 to 10 percent, run your calculation using a 4 percent growth rate. You might notice a significant change in your monthly savings rate needed to approximate future portfolio values.