Experts say the potential economic, political and social consequences of accurately predicting climate months ahead are profound. Forecasts of wet or dry seasons, or normal or abnormal temperatures, may influence financial markets, particularly the prices of commodity futures, and may affect what crops farmers plant. Industries may realize energy savings by purchasing fuel in advance, if they know whether temperatures will be higher or lower than usual. Faced with a forecast of a season of heavy rains, public health authorities may be able to prepare mosquito control programs for such diseases as malaria and West Nile viral encephalitis. In nations with unstable governments and chronic food shortages, serious climate changes can foment unrest and amplify political problems.
Historians say climatic change has contributed to the collapse of civilizations.
A sudden drought played a major role in the downfall of the empire stretching from Turkey to the Persian Gulf led by Sargon I of Akkad 4,200 years ego. It's food, water, energy, security. Recognizing the difference between weather and climate is central to understanding IRI's mission. IRI, part of Columbia's Earth Institute, was founded in 1996 to produce long-range predictions for the use of policymakers. Predicting climate is far more complicated than ordinary weather forecasting.