The front-runners' national leads are both bigger than the advantage former governor Ronald Reagan held over Senator Howard H. Baker Jr. at about the same point in the 1980 GOP race. Reagan won that battle in a breeze. Bush's lead is far greater than the lead former vice president Walter F. Mondale held over Senator John H. Glenn Jr. at this same point in 1984. Mondale won the nomination that year, and Glenn barely survived past New Hampshire. Bush's lead is also bigger than the lead his father, Vice President George Bush, held over Senator Robert J. Dole at this point in 1988.
People are front-runners for good reason.
But you can get pretty famous and get a lot of support in this country quickly. The Democrats' race is shaped by the public's view of Gore, which is not likely to change after his seven years as vice president. The Republicans' race is shaped by the public's sketchy view of Bush, which is still subject to change. Students of presidential nomination battles believe there are two principal predictors of victory. One is national poll standings.