If its mid May, the weather is nice and the water temperature is in the mid 70's conditions would be perfect for Tarpon fishing. Except when your party has four people and two are children. Poon fishing is a fantastic pursuit, BUT the fish are way to tough for young people to handle and they may not be so patient while waiting for a poon bite. Dad gets to enjoy watching the kids have fun and get his grouper dinner too. If its mid December, and you call me for a trip in February, I will have no clue as to when a front will have passed or what the wind direction or sea temperature might be at that time.
Migrations depend heavily on sea water temperature.
I change with them. What I can say is that we will adjust your trip to match your angling desire, with what has been happening, the current weather conditions then come up with a plan together for a successful day. In the case of fly fishing experience plays a larger part in the fish catching. If fish catching equals success then your skill and experience plays a big part in the equation. If your dream is to catch a big permit or tarpon on the fly, then you need to have the fly casting ability to make the correct presentations in adverse conditions.