But it's the question on everyone's mind. Most economists offer comforting words. They predict an upturn starting this fall. Hoisington warns the downturn will be long and painful. The economy will dip in and out of recession and remain in the doldrums for at least one, and probably two, years.
Economists can pursue theories, and if they're wrong, they can revise their projections.
Money managers can't look back. For another, although solid and thought-provoking, Hoisington is particularly conservative. He has invested all the money under his watch in long-term U.S. securities. But even Austin economist Angelos Angelou, who has been generally bullish, is now lowering the job growth predictions for this year that he had compiled in January from 3.7 percent to 2.5 percent. But unlike previous expansions, this one hasn't been led by consumers.