The leading economic indicators are a set of 10 statistics that is used to forecast upturns or downturns in the economy, including average weekly unemployment insurance claims filed and manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods. The U.S. economy, which has been booming for nearly a decade, appears to have peaked. Each of the 10 indicators in the The Conference Board's Index of Leading Economic Indicators is growing at a significantly slower pace than it was six months ago. The number of weekly manufacturing hours worked shows whether companies are hiring more labor. Building permits for housing reflect whether people are confident enough or willing to buy homes.
New orders reveal how much demand there is for business and consumer goods.
The consumer expectations index is derived from surveying consumers on the economic prospects they expect for their families and the U.S. in the next year and for the U.S. during the next five years. It's the only indicator that's based on expectations rather than statistics, which are based on what has actually happened. If vendors have a backlog because orders are coming in fast and furious, that tends to be a sign of a strong economy. Stock prices reflect corporate profitability and performance and help determine investment. If the interest-rate spread increases, it shows a loosening of federal policy, generally resulting in lower interest rates.