Good moisture and smoke in place. This will happen as southerly flow through the depth of the tropopshere, combined with strong lifting, causes a line of convection to form. The harder part is to find a way for supercells to form in advance of this system. During the afternoon, southeasterly flow will increase in the eastern part of W TX, increasing the convergence and advecting high potential buoyancy air onto the Caprock as the dryline slowly retreats. Toward sunset, upper flow will back and strengthen significantly, causing seeding effects to send the storms toward HP and eventually toward a solid line of convection.
Operations are possible.
As tonight's shortwave lifts northward with the attendant surface low, upper flow becomes westerly over the southern Plains and the surface front stalls. So shear and CAPE may be more favorable tomorrow than today. Good pattern for MCS's in the S. Plains, supercells in the High Plains of CO and the northern Plains. We will weigh options for operations in that latter area in a few days. I badly need an assistant FC who can commit to all the remaining missions this year.