Now the Bush White House must decide whether the time has come to slow China's military gains by selling Taiwan advanced weapons out of America's high-tech arsenal. It's a move that China adamantly opposes, but some help for Taiwan seems all but certain. Beijing residents pause at a news stand, where a paper shows China Vice Premier Qian Qichen and President Bush flanking a destroyer with Aegis radar. Not only does it claim that Taiwan is a breakaway province that belongs under the Chinese flag, it also worries that pro-independence sentiment on the island is growing, particularly among younger Taiwanese. Any infusion of advanced American weapons could embolden Taiwan's elected leaders to move toward independence.
Experts say the situation is potentially explosive.
Mr. Donnelly, who spoke at a recent Cato Institute conference on Taiwan, says China's goals are clear. They intend to displace us as the guarantor of the international order in East Asia. Two near-term military threats to Taiwan are particularly worrisome for American planners. The first involves missiles. China has installed more than 200 ballistic missiles capable of striking Taiwan.