It's not clear which course the reclusive Kim favors but the number of options open to him is shrinking. In September, a North Korean submarine carrying commandos ran aground in the South, leading to a prolonged standoff. It may be calculated. The menace of an increasingly irrational North Korean military might just induce its worried neighbors to be more generous with aid, precisely what the regime may want. It may not matter anyway.
Recent incidents add to the picture of a crumbling regime.
A few days later, Kang Song San, who had reportedly been ill for about a year, was replaced as prime minister. His sudden dismissal may well be the beginning of a shakeout aimed at consolidating Kim's authority. Kim was about to axe. Over the past two years, Kim has assiduously installed younger family members in top government posts and promoted hundreds of military officers of his own age. Such machinations have widened cracks in Pyongyang's elite, further alienating the old military leaders who helped elevate Kim to power after his father's death.