But now, banks know they can sell the loans they make to Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. But housing and other construction markets are likely to soften as employment drops, perhaps accentuating the downturn. In the early stages of a downturn, the government's data for GDP, consumer spending, and employment typically overstate the economy's strength and are later revised downward. But by '92, growth for that quarter had been revised below zero. During normal times, those informed guesses are pretty close.
More accurate data come in over a couple of years from annual surveys and other sources.
The U.S. could still avoid recession in 2001. But with three months of declining employment on the ledger and more job cuts to come, that doesn't look likely. Bid on or offer business services Web design, logo design, computer consulting, and more. Business Week Online may receive a share of any fees you pay for services. The McGraw-Hill Companies Inc. All rights reserved.