The deployment of missile defense will undercut these measures, making the fulfillment of those commitments more difficult. President Bush says that the United States will propose modifications to the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty to allow for US national missile defenses. If Russia does not agree to the US proposals, the Bush Administration has said the United States is prepared to withdraw from the ABM treaty. President Bush may decide as soon as this year whether to begin construction of a key NMD radar site in Alaska, which could violate the treaty. Russia has stated clearly in the recent session of the Conference on Disarmament that its offer of deep reductions in warhead numbers is conditional on the integrity of the ABM treaty.
Military planners react to capabilities rather than intentions.
The deployment of even limited missile defenses could lead to Russian re-deployment of tactical nuclear weapons and multiple warhead missiles. A Chinese build-up could easily result in a dangerous acceleration of Indian, and in turn, Pakistani nuclear weapons deployments. This escalation of offensive capabilities is likely to lead to nuclear arsenals poised at even higher levels of alert. Furthermore, missile defense systems, particularly the NMD network now being contemplated by the United States, are extraordinarily expensive and have not been proven to work in an operational environment. No NMD system, even a limited one, can be deployed for at least six to 10 years.