If the Southeast Asian economy continues to slide, European steel that was being exported to Asia instead could land in the U.S., says David Roland, president of the Steel Service Center Institute. Japan was the second biggest exporter of steel in 1995, IISI says. These conditions could lead to an interesting year in trade law. A downturn in the U.S. steel market could cause an increase in antidumping and countervailing-duty petitions. In sheet products, the entry of more minimills already has led to market-share fights and weaker prices.
Imports always fare badly on such occasions.
Exports for the first three quarters of 1997 totaled almost 4.5 million tons. They reached 5 million tons in 1996. Exports should remain at current levels in 1998, Buelte says. An increase in shipments to Mexico probably will offset a drop in shipments to Canada. 79 million tons of shipments through September U.S. steel shipments by market, Jan.-Sept.