Dow 36,000 and, as if that weren't enough, Dow 40,000 . I don't know.
Overconfidence is a human trait extending beyond investing.
The only group psychologists don't regularly find to be overconfident, Shefrin says, are the clinically depressed. We credit ourselves with winning picks, he adds, blame others for losers, and go on merrily believing we're smarter than we are. I know it sounds like me, so I went looking for ways to protect me from myself. Next time my mind locks on a trade I want to make, I'll first try turning the whole decision upside down. Some hedge-fund investors I know actively seek evidence to undercut their theory.