Still, many analysts and journalists still cite the estimate and it has stoked up the general and political interest in Caspian energy exploitation. The report says the U.S. estimates, publicized by the State Department, are seen to be of an order of magnitude that is divorced from reality despite their near universal quotation. The report says the consensus of oil industry forecasts of the total recoverable reserves from the Caspian tend to lie in a range of between 25,000 million and 35,000 million barrels. Accordingly, the report suggests it would be better to compare Caspian reserves not with those of Saudi Arabia but with the much smaller, albeit significant, oil and gas fields of Europe's North Sea. Another sobering factor is that Caspian oil and gas is extremely costly.
Oil prices are a key source of uncertainty.
Since the Gulf crisis of 1990-91, oil prices have moved in a range between 12 and 25 dollars per barrel. At the high end, Caspian oil would provide good rates of return for investors. At the low end, returns would be very poor. The report says a sustained period of low prices would cause interest in the region to wane, and development timetables to slow. It also says the potential for opening up the Iraqi oil industry is a major threat to the development of Caspian energy.