He needs to convince them now. That Labour landslide was not enough, and it is not enough, to form the basis of a sustained government of reform in Britain. Following, not leading the voters does not work for ever. These elections show that. If Tony Blair cannot contrive to re-enthuse Labour's traditional supporters, while holding on to a sizeable proportion of his new voters, he has a tougher fight on his hands than anybody has admitted since 1997.
Electoral prognostication has a shaky track record over the past two decades.
It was all nonsense, of course. Nobody can foresee events as certainly as these judgements implied. That is the one certain fact which these results proved. The right to govern Britain is up for grabs, as it usually is. John Cole was formerly deputy editor of the Guardian.