Efficiencies in farm production caused rural population decline in the 1950s and 1960s, but did not prompt extensive land use changes. Furthermore, because these are economically lean times, some of the social changes are harder to bear now. One major transition in land use, just beginning in many areas such as Waipaoa, Rangitikei and Southland, is from pastoral farming to farming plus forestry. The eventual effects of forestry on rural communities are not yet clear, but they will be substantial . Wood production in New Zealand will double by 2010 and treble by 2025 and go on increasing.
Most new plantings are now on farms.
We are just beginning to realise what is involved, for example the huge need for education in farm forestry that is taken for granted in countries like Sweden and Finland. In New Zealand the pattern of pruning, thinning, harvesting and replanting is not fully established. The nature and location of the processing plants and related infrastructure have not been decided. We cannot predict the eventual forestry, timber processing and downstream services workforce, nor the size and shape of affected communities. Some may decline while others will grow.