Each evening, you want to know that the electricity will be on for the morning coffee, that the car will start and what tomorrow's weather will be. Occasionally, the power goes out, the car doesn't start and the forecast is wrong. More and more often, though, it's right. Yet I sometimes feel that the public's expectations have increased even more than our accuracy. That's a quandary for those of us who make a living predicting the future.
Forecasting is a mix of meteorology and psychology.
As a meteorologist at Channel 4 in Washington, I'm concerned not only with storms but with people's reaction to my forecast, especially if it includes the S word. I know any time snow is predicted, everyone will rush to the grocery store, expecting they'll be marooned at home whether there are two inches or 20. I want to get it right. But television is a competitive medium, and I have an eye on the other channels. I certainly don't want to underestimate a storm the other guy is predicting.