And then all we have to worry about is the affect of weather this summer on yields. They will also update their 2000-2001 projections. My forecasts can be seen in Table 1 below. Check to see how they compare. The more the two projections differ, the higher likelihood of their report having an effect on prices.
Exports continue to lag way behind projections and the amount necessary to reach projections.
I suspect the USDA will lower their 2000-2001 corn export figure. At this point I am coming in nearly 40 million bushels under their April corn export projection using information published since their last report. However, I remain a little more optimistic on 2000-2001 ethanol production. My forecast for 2001-2002 indicates that ending stocks will drop to levels of two years ago, use will continue to grow, and supply will stay nearly the same as last year. You might ask how supply will remain constant with over 2 million less acres of corn to be planted.