Pork exports from Taiwan have been banned, and the U.S. is expected to get the majority of the Taiwanese export business to Japan and Korea. This will have a very positive impact on U.S. prices. Declines in the breeding herd continued in the Eastern Corn Belt, but recovery in breeding herd numbers was noted in the western Corn Belt, particularly in Minnesota. Annual average prices of both live hogs and retail prices are expected to reach record high levels this year. Data from the March Hogs and Pigs report is shown in Table 1.
Producers show only a minor inclination to move toward expansion.
These numbers indicate that the industry is not expanding as quickly as most thought. As always, some will argue that more expansion is underway, and that USDA has failed to register the extent of the expansion. Reports of brisk gilt sales and low sow slaughter would tend to provide support for this argument. Sow slaughter data would have indicated some expansion last fall, and an acceleration of that expansion this winter. More pork will be produced however even with roughly the same number of farrowings.