Also, the revolution in military affairs and improvement of rapid-reaction capability will make it unnecessary for the U.S. to retain current deployment levels abroad. In this era of growing economic interdependence and deepening regional integration, it is more sensible for the U.S. to lead by shaping the rules of the game and building security communities rather than seeking influence via its military muscle. As Washington redefines its security ties with Japan and others, it has alarmed and alienated those like China who have become very suspicious of U.S. strategic intentions. Threatened countries naturally respond by aligning with each other. The China-Russian partnership, although still far from an alliance, has become more substantive over the past several years in response to U.S. security policy in Asia and Europe.
Foresight is needed here.
Given the evolving political, security and economic trends in East Asia, ten years from now, U.S. security involvement in the region will have to be transformed both in form and substance. Forward military presence will decline, security alliances will become less, and a pluralistic security community will very likely emerge. The establishment of an Asia-Pacific security community is possible because states in the region have shared interests in a peaceful and stable security environment, and because they increasingly benefit from growing economic interactions. This nascent mechanism for regional security will evolve over time into a more effective means for promoting regional cooperation on security issues. In this context, the United States will still play a significant role, not as a hegemon, but as a key player.