That suggested they were motivated by non-monetary factors. Massachusetts Megabucks expected values also relied on discounted present value of the jackpot. Only once in six years did the game yield a positive net expected return. That expected returns were consistently negative suggested a risk-seeking behavior or nonpecuniary returns or both on the part of players. The significant negative relationship between sales and the residuals indicates that bettors systematically underpredict expected value when rollover is small, and vice versa.
Market efficiency is a critical concept in economics and finance.
Only infrequently do situations arise where relatively clean tests of rational player behavior or market efficiency can be conducted. State-sponsored Lotto games do seem to offer such an opportunity, because the mathematical expectation of a bet depends on, among other things, players' aggregate behavior. In deciding whether to play, each player must predict how others will behave and then act on that prediction. A slowdown can generate a gambling Catch 22 for lottery officials. Smaller jackpots generate slower sales.