If the selection for this trait is due to an extreme event it is unlikely to be fire, which is historically absent from desert communities. Regardless of the mechanism behind selection of this germination response, reliance on a nitrogen oxide or trace gas germination cue puts these species at risk due to the current high levels of anthropogenically produced nitrogen deposition and trace gases. Recent introduction of fire into the desert compounds the situation. In annual species, seeds are the only link from one generation to the next and production of a dormancy-breaking cue at inappropriate times by anthropogenic sources will cause seeds to germinate under unsuitable conditions and result in extinctions. The possibility of germination being cued by microbial processes in the desert is also problematic.
Microbial processes are very sensitive to pH and temperature fluctuations.
Annual plants in arid and semi-arid ecosystems act as important, readily digestible food sources for native fauna. Loss of annual plants could have a domino effect of environmental degradation and species' extinctions. To understand what management steps should be taken to prevent this loss, further studies are needed to determine what is the natural germination cue, how it is produced in nature, and what mechanism is involved. To test this hypothesis I will conduct studies on native desert soils under variable water saturation levels, temperatures, and organic content. Keeley, J.E. and C.J. Fotheringham.