With sound economic and political policies already in place, Cote d'Ivoire could be the next Botswana, serving as an island of stability and prosperity in the disorder that characterizes the Far West. The task force requested that that there be increased focus on South Africa in the next set of discussions. This country will be the key to the economic future of Southern Africa. South Africa will become an increasingly important energy market particularly for natural gas. The transition from Mandela to Mbeki is expected to go smoothly.
Reforms are likely to continue to play a role in shaping the country's policies.
South Africa could play a conciliatory role in Angola but currently bilateral relations are so bad that this is extremely unlikely in the next several years. Successful economic reform can provide the model for its neighboring countries and be the engine of growth in the region. Conversely economic failure in RSA could create doubts about market-based economic reform. The transition will be difficult in a country already facing severe unemployment and social unrest. The future role of the military is unclear and needs to be resolved if transition is to be successful.