In this article I discuss a method of variance reduction to remove most of the luck from the game. This follows up on an idea of Fredrik Dahl, the author of Jellyfish in a recent preprint. It provides a way of a backgammon player or program to analyze games between stronger players without bias, and I applied this to a game between Jellyfish and Snowie. A measure of Luck. I discuss criteria a measure of luck should satisfy and a mathematically correct measure of luck which has some surprising consequences.
Luck is the equity gained through the roll of the dice.
The luck involved in any match won is about the same as the luck involved in any other, barring serious errors. From any non-gin position in a match, you need good luck to win and bad luck to lose. Strong players are lucky more often than weak players. Forced rolls might be good luck and they might be bad, but you play them perfectly. The Half-Crossover Pipcount.