However, although an aggregate reduction from 1997 is in prospect, output should be only slightly below average. In North America, wheat output is forecast to decrease considerably following a significant decline in plantings in the United States. In the CIS, adverse weather and farmers' economic problems are expected to reduce production in 1998. By contrast, in Africa, improved weather conditions in the major wheat producers has allowed a recovery from last year's drought-reduced crops, while in Europe, Oceania and Central America the wheat harvests are expected to remain close to the previous year's levels. For coarse grains, FAO forecasts global output in 1998 at 925 million tonnes, 1.6 percent up from 1997 and above trend for the third consecutive year.
Larger crops are in prospect in Asia, Africa, and North and South America.
Production in Central America and Oceania would remain close to the previous year's levels. However, this forecast is still very tentative as the bulk of the 1998 rice crop is yet to be planted in Asia pending the arrival of the monsoon rains. A sizeable reduction forecast in global imports of wheat and an expected return to more normal levels of rice trade after a peak in 1998, would more than offset the forecast increase in coarse grains imports. The bulk of the reduction is accounted for by several countries in Asia and Africa where prospects for the current domestic crop seasons are considerably improved from the previous year and thus the need for imports should be significantly reduced. For rice, while it is too early to make a forecast for the calendar year 1999, FAO tentatively estimates that rice shipments could be some 10 percent lower than the current year's, now estimated at 22 million tonnes.