Assessments of how projected climate change may affect the likelihood of both river and coastal flooding in Scotland. A review of the levels of protection offered by existing Scottish flood prevention schemes, together with consideration of potential adaptations to design standards for the future. Catchment wetness is likely to increase and is suggested with relatively more confidence. In terms of coastal flooding only changes in mean sea-level are suggested to be modelled with a reasonable degree of confidence. No quantitative guidance as to how tidal surge or wave behaviour might be affected is offered.
Flooding trends Long-term trends in temperature and sea level are apparent.
The case is at yet unproven as to whether the recent intensification of river floods is part of a longer-term trend or not. Prevailing weather conditions appear to have changed on a decadal time-scale but no direct link to global warming has been shown. Table 1 gives the estimated heightening of infrastructure to provide an equivalent level of protection in the 2050s as that provided in the 1990s. The analysis does not account for future changes in storminess or for possible changes to coastal geomorphology. As such it is less well suited to the more complex coastlines such as firths and estuaries.