I like what Dave has done. Thompson has recently revised his own estimates. In the middle of last year, he called for the peak to occur in April of this year. He added that while the intensity will probably be less than originally projected, he still expects the sunspot average to exceed 140. Hathaway says we won't even know when the maximum has arrived until months later, because researchers will have to first see the downward slope of the statistical bell curve of activity before they can know we've topped out.
Dotted lines indicate the prediction's range of error.
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