Reserves in the Middle East will also last 50-100 years. In contrast, reserve lives of onshore wells tend to range between 5 and 10 years. We believe there is still plenty of oil. The cheap stuff that is easy to find and easy to get at is depleting rapidly. In short, oil is trending to higher, more sustainably profitable levels.
Government intervention can only have short-term implications.
The oil they are releasing is a spit in the bucket compared to total demand. Bottom line is that if we have a cold winter, things could get out of hand, and if people are freezing in the north-east due to temporary shortages, they will release more oil. Still, we know more oil is on the open waters headed for North America, and by summer next year the inventory squeeze should subside. Markets find excuses to go in the direction they want to. The tensions in the Middle East are unfortunate, but they have no practical implications for the supply of oil.