The untried Syrian regime of Bashar Assad has rattled sabers with talk of war. At that point, the question is whether Egypt will enter the fray. Israeli analysts recognize this danger. Indyk noted how the Israeli-Palestinian clashes of recent weeks have caused some in the Arab world to float the idea of resorting to a military option against Israel. Hizbullah, the Lebanese Islamist organization that expelled Israel's forces from south Lebanon earlier this year, is probably the key, for Israel has promised to punish Hizbullah aggression by hitting Syrian targets.
Furious demonstrators pour into the streets across the Middle East.
Riding these sentiments, Hizbullah attacks northern Israel. As promised, Israel retaliates against Syrian targets, prompting a mobilization of Syrian, Egyptian, and other forces, including Israel's. Saddam is a likely candidate. This is an exceedingly difficult pair of objectives and they are getting even harder to achieve as each new day of violence simultaneously diminishes Israeli deterrence and heightens Arab anger. The sooner Israel begins the effort seriously to dissuade its potential enemies, the better its chances to dispel the winds of war.