The major factors will be petrol prices and exchange rate volatility. There appears to be a commentator driven effect on results in this survey. One thing we will be doing is clamping down on tax evaders in the sex industry of the kind supported by that member. The member inaccurately quoted the Reserve Bank governor . I consider the stagflation scenario unlikely - it is not going to happen.
Exporters are very confident at present.
Import substitution measures are being adopted by NZ businesses. And that this was in part in response to comments from the Reserve Bank Governor. However as I have said I consider this extremely unlikely. A varied one depending on a range of circumstances. The main reason for the drop in consumer confidence is the price of petrol which is determined by the price of oil and the level of the exchange rate neither of which are matters we have control over.