China's primary military aim may be to look and not act muscular, but that hasn't stopped others from wondering under what scenarios Beijing would actually use its muscles. It's a question the Chinese themselves are struggling to answer. And it has special security worries with each nation. Russia's internal chaos could spill into China's already uneasy Western provinces. There are also more nuanced worries that some Chinese planners surely suspect could be clarified if China becomes stronger.
Exhibit A is China's complex relationship with Japan.
While the two nations have extensive trade and technology links, there is a lingering mutual distrust. In both countries there is a passionate sense that one of them ought to be first among political equals in Asia. No place is a more likely target for Chinese missiles than Taiwan, which Beijing insists is still its own. Recent discussions between Japan, Taiwan and the U.S. about an antimissile defense network in eastern Asia have infuriated Beijing. And one of Washington's few consistent foreign policy goals since the end of the cold war has been to maintain a major presence in Asia.