Thus, ending stocks are likely to continue to accumulate and prices likely will fall. Increased carryin stocks in other exporting countries and only modest growth in global import demand will pull world wheat prices lower, also pressuring U.S. prices down. Winter wheat acreage is estimated down 7 percent and spring wheat area is also likely to decline. However, a much larger portion of the planted acres will be harvested for grain than in 1996 and yields should be higher. Demand for U.S. wheat is likely to increase only moderately.
Domestic use is likely to fall as feed and residual use declines.
However most of the major foreign exporters will carry large stocks into the new marketing year and only moderate import growth is expected. Northern Hemisphere growing conditions have been mixed. Extreme cold in Europe has been accompanied by snowfall that has prevented winterkill in many areas. Moisture conditions have been favorable in Morocco and Spain, but Tunisia and Algeria have been drier than average. Normal weather conditions prevail in China and India.