However, as our analysis shows, overall it would be extremely difficult to argue that the Asian Crisis was a major cause of the general decline in U.S. crop agriculture s prices and market incomes. Figure 2 shows that total imports of the five crops by all Asian countries actually increased in the years during and following the crisis. The big drops in Asian crop imports occurred in 1995 and 1996, prior to the Asian Crisis. Figure 2 shows that production levels in importing countries are also extremely important determinants of their import needs our export opportunities. Clearly, Asian crop imports are inversely related to the size of the gap between their domestic production and domestic use of the crops.
Imports increase when local production declines compared to domestic demand and vice versa.
A comparison of the annual change in Asian composite imports of the five crops corn, cotton, rice, soybeans and wheat with the Asian net annual gain in production over increase in demand. While there is some variability in Asian imports of the five agricultural commodities, the variability is inversely related to net gain in production over consumption. Perhaps, the most surprising finding of this analysis is that the growth in Asian total domestic demand for the five crops was not accelerating during the years in which the 1996 Farm Bill was being debated. Fluctuating maybe, but not accelerating. The two-tenths of one percent drop in the rate of growth over the four years that include the Asian Crisis is not the dramatic drop that has been asserted.