For example, flooding rains can strike California, producing coastal erosion, mudslides, and crop damage, while droughts may occur in Australia and other regions. Along the South American coast, the local fishing industry is severely disrupted by the unusually warm ocean waters. Miyakoda has long been a leader in efforts to extend the limits of useful weather forecasts. Many of his research group's earlier modeling innovations had been incorporated into operational weather forecasting models at the National Meteorological Center, leading to significant improvements in the 3-5 day forecasts now available to the public. During the cold phase of ENSO, this surface is deep in the warmer western tropical Pacific but rises toward the sea surface in the cooler eastern equatorial Pacific, as in the example shown.
Gray regions depict land areas of New Guinea and northern Australia.
Model skill in the prediction of eastern tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies for different forecast lead times. Higher values indicate greater skill. Forecast Method 1 uses both surface and sub-surface ocean data for initialization, whereas Forecast Method 2 uses only surface data. The results show the crucial importance of subsurface data for the success of the forecasts with this prediction system. Shown are composite 500mb geopotential height anomalies in meters.