Part of this report, the Reference Case forecast, was released on the EIA Internet site and at a press conference on November 28.
Economic growth is a major determinant of both energy demand and carbon dioxide emissions.
If the economy grows at a slower rate of 2.5 percent per year, energy demand is projected to be 6 percent lower in 2020 than in the Reference Case, and projected carbon dioxide emissions would be reduced by 125 million metric tons carbon equivalent, or 6 percent, in 2020, compared to the Reference Case. In the Reference Case, the energy intensity of the U.S. economy, measured as energy used per dollar of GDP, is projected to decline at an average annual rate of 1.6 percent through 2020 as more efficient energy-using technologies become available and penetrate the market. However, technology could also develop at a slower rate than in the Reference Case. Assuming that the efficiencies of energy-using technologies do not change from those available today increases projected energy demand by 5 percent and carbon dioxide emissions by 116 million metric tons carbon equivalent, or 6 percent, in 2020, compared to the Reference Case. In an alternative case, it is assumed that the use of MTBE and other ethers in gasoline is prohibited throughout the United States with a waiver of the 2-percent oxygen requirement.