The outcome of the U.S. presidential election could influence the outcome of the conference in The Hague. The American delegation could be even less willing to accept the protocol if George W. Bush, the Republican candidate, should win. The Republican-controlled Congress is prepared to refuse to ratify the protocol unless major developing nations join the developed nations to regulate greenhouse gas emissions. The Japanese government, which was host to the Kyoto conference, is being expected to mediate the differences among the countries. Japan should withdraw its position on how forests absorb carbon dioxide, a position not supported by any other country.
Japan insists on calculating absorption of carbon dioxide by all forests, including natural forests.
Such a calculation would mean a much larger consumption of fossil fuels. Japan's target for reducing the emission of greenhouse gases generated by burning fossil fuels is 6 percent. The forests of the United States and Scandinavian countries would be presumed to absorb even more greenhouse gas emissions. There would hardly be any need for people in the United States and Scandinavian countries to work toward reducing greenhouse gas emissions if the Japanese approach were to be adopted. Since there is no chance that other nations will accept the Japanese position, Japan only delays agreement among the nations by sticking to it.