With so many alternatives on the horizon, many believe that the era of oil would end peacefully, like the era of coal. Indeed, millions of tonnes of oil may remain underground as other energy sources become available at competitive prices. Others are not so sure. They fear that vanishing oil reserves will bring out the worst kinds of diplomatic intrigue and even military action to secure oil reserves and sea lanes used in transporting oil. The recipe for avoiding a catastrophe is cooperation and information exchange among countries.
Energy security is as much a collective concept as military security.
India must take the lead in bringing the important Asian energy consumers into a forum, which could reduce the cost of research, improve energy efficiency and work towards an Asian Energy Charter. The Charter would facilitate transit of gas through third countries and open up international gas trade in Asia. The same forum would help in an oil supply crisis through joint management of strategic reserves and by cooling down the market through exchange of information on stocks, taxation and rationing proposals, etc. The success of this forum will depend on the participation of India, China and Japan. It is time we took a good long look at these questions.