The forecast has a mean national score of 0.31. The field significance is 0.001, which greatly surpasses the traditional 0.05 rejection cutoff. Field significance reflects the probability of randomly obtaining an overall map skill equal to or higher than that which actually occurred. It is evaluated using a Monte Carlo procedure in which the forecast versus observation correspondences are shuffled randomly 1000 times. The skill of the temperature forecast is highest in winter and spring in Canada.
Local skill are highest throughout western Canada and Ontario and central Quebec.
The forecast has modest expected skill, with a mean national score of 0.15 and a weak field significance of 0.168. Local skills exceed 0.3 over an area just west of Hudson Bay and over western Quebec. Only the west coast of British Columbia, parts of the Northwestern Territories and central Quebec show above normal values. Both atmospheric and oceanic indices have been showing a strong warm phase of ENSO for several months. Most statistical and dynamical models are predicting the current warm ENSO episode to peak during the Jan-Feb 1998 period.