The rotation of the earth, strength of downstream blocks, location of downstream troughs, etc., also must be factored into the prediction process. The latter is particularly difficult to determine in real time. An error of a few degrees in direction and a few miles per hour in the speed of the initial motion can make a sizable error in the 72-hour track forecast, all other conditions being equal. Intensity prediction is difficult to model and thus objective schemes for forecasting how the strength of a hurricane will change with time are not very reliable. The intuition, experience, and skills of a seasoned Hurricane Specialist are very important in this part of the forecast.
Hurricanes are heat engines and therefore heat is critical to the strengthening process.
At the same time, this could be offset by strong upper level winds shearing off the top of the storm, or by cold dry air entering the system at low levels, or both. An ordinary summer thunderstorm has the energy equivalent of 13 atomic bombs. In a 24-hour period, the energy in a hurricane would be equivalent to about 500,000 atomic bombs. Thus, the suggestion that a hurricane might be modified by dropping an atomic bomb into the eye is ridiculous. A number of proposals have been advanced for modifying hurricanes but none have been adopted.