On the one hand, the direct medical costs imposed by declining health status are likely to be large, as is the income forgone by those who fall ill or die. This pattern suggests that a mortality crisis might indeed have a large economic impact. On the other hand, the evidence on the macroeconomic effects of other mortality crises, such as epidemics of AIDS, influenza, and the plague, is mixed. While dramatic increases in mortality are always disruptive to economic systems, they may also have counterbalancing effects, such as increasing the capital and land to labor ratios in excess labor economies. In general the overall effect of mortality shocks on an economy depends on various factors, such as the structure of the economy, the structure of the labor market, and the number of excess deaths and their distribution across age and skill groups.
Economic performance is one lens through which to view the severity of Russia's mortality crisis.
Translating the magnitude of the crisis from human to monetary terms may well improve its chances of gaining attention from economic policymakers. In addition, estimates of the economic impacts of the crisis are crucial ingredients in economic evaluations of policies and programs aimed at mitigating the crisis. There are three main reasons that the Russian mortality crisis might be expected to have a large macroeconomic effect. The primary reason, of course, is the large number of excess deaths. Second, the disproportionate impact of the crisis on the working age population raises the possibility of increased costs based on the level of forgone income associated with the crisis.