Allan Petersen in Better Families, quoted on the Christianity. Most of these assertions are simply wrong, especially the implication in the Harris quote about how the divorce rate was calculated in the first place by the government. As with any projection, the number could change if conditions in society change, but it is a very valid projection under current conditions. So we can't say the divorce rate is declining.
Fewer marriages means fewer potential divorces.
They are sharp people who do them. This would be an important thing for some public or private agency to take up. I think David Blankenhorn has also called for such a thing. Really, one of the key battles here is the degree to which our society is lumbering down the road of marriage being seen as simply less and less relevant altogether. That's one of the big meaning battles that bears much consideration.