Two or three consecutive bad harvests in North America and Asia could use up our reserves in a flash. Prices would soar. People would starve. Consider also that the decision of many Third World countries to industrialize their economies often involves cutbacks in food production. Arable land is paved over.
Farm workers migrate to the cities.
If such trends continue, world grain reserves will be depleted, prices will climb, people will starve, governments will be de-stabilized, and world peace will be threatened. Monitor the price of grain. If it rises sharply relative to other commodities, expect the worst. Another warning sign is a steady increase in the income ratio between the top quintile of any nation's population and the remaining four quintiles. Since the 1970s, there has been a worldwide trend, led by the United States, Distinguished Teaching Professor Warren Wagar, who has specialized in European intellectural history as well as the study of alternative futures, offers ways to gauge the future in this essay.