In the end, each model or climate factor offers information on how the typical distribution of climate patterns might shift, on time scales of a month or two, or a season, or longer. Climate forecasting aims to achieve a consensus that draws together all these bits of information to tell a coherent story. Outlook assessment Starting with this issue of The Climate Update we are providing a bit more information than we have previously about our forecasts for the coming season. Bar graphs like the one shown here are given with each forecast. The bars and numbers represent the consensus we have reached on the likelihood that seasonal rainfalls, temperatures, soil moisture levels and river flows will occur in each tercile.
Increased likelihood is represented by longer bars with higher numbers.
With each forecast, the most likely outcome, in our assessment, is highlighted by the caption under the graph. Call these numbers a ranking of expectations or our percent weighting of likely outcomes, we hope you find them useful. White-out at the grand chateau, Mt Ruapehu. In July the ski field reported its deepest snow fall in 20 years.