Japan is likely to remain in recession until the new century, despite optimism over reduced taxes and higher spending. In its most recent world economic outlook, the IMF estimated a fall in global growth of 2 per cent for 1998 and only a small rise to 2.5 per cent in 1999. The brightest spot on a bleak horizon is Thailand. The Thai baht has climbed back 12 per cent since mid-year and direct investment has returned. Social stability in Thailand has attracted sun-seekers who might otherwise have gone to Indonesia or Malaysia.
Every cloud has a silver lining.
The crisis began in Thailand and it is there that the recovery may begin too. Europeans can do their bit for Asia by taking a vacation there, especially while it is still cheap.