The resulting operating balances show a rising track. Abstracting from cyclical effects, there is also an increase in the structural operating balance trend as expenditure growth is held below revenue growth from policy decisions such as taxation increases and economic growth.
Gross debt follows a similar track.
The operating balance increases each year but the changes to the forecasts since the BPS are not substantial, as outlined in Table 2.1. This re-phasing of new policy expenditure increases the structural operating surplus in the latter half of the forecast horizon. Compared with the BPS, net debt is lower in the first year. The reduction is broadly maintained in the second year before steadily improving. This effect flows through to each outyear relative to the BPS forecasts, resulting in a 'level shift' improvement to net debt.