While we have an established network of permanent plots for determining sapling and mature tree response to climatic variation, we lack critical data on seed production and seedling recruitment, and how they vary with microclimate and mature tree demographics. Our permanent demography plots provide an opportunity for quantifying dispersal curves for the dominant species under a range of physical settings and biotic backgrounds. To provide an integrative framework for understanding current forest conditions, investigate future climate scenarios, and evaluate potential management options, we will incorporate these new results of field studies into our forest dynamics model, Zelig. Current results Our data show that Abies spp. Other common species, particularly at low elevations, are Calocedrus decurrens and Quercus kelloggii .
Elevation is an important predictor of the total number of seedlings found in each plot.
Including the burned plots in the analysis reduces the strength of this relationship. Fir and pine seedling distributions considered separately also followed a negative exponential function. There was a greater amount of variance in the fir species reducing the fit of the model. Pine species closely followed an exponential decay pattern with elevation. Compared to the low and mid elevation plots, the high elevation plots have relatively fewer seedlings in the smallest two height classes.