I doubt it. The US economic slowdown and negative credit cycle, as well as shrinkage in equity values, the shutdown of the IPO and high yield bond markets will all make earning risk a time bomb for most companies. Still, the consolidation theme is going to return with a vengeance in the global financial services industry. The old Citi had taken a look at Amex, a premium global brand with a vast distribution network Amex's multiple has halved and it now trades at a discount to the market for the first time in five years. Above all, Sandy Weill used to be the CEO of Amex in the 1980s.
Irrational pessimism can be as dangerous in the capital markets as irrational exuberance.
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