Portfolio Theory has the attributes that it embraces risk because risk is what can provide return. The real problem is how to convert uncertainty to risk. There are strategies to do this in financial markets, including hedging, timing, and allocation strategies. Filling in more details, Jim said that Mexico's gasoline consumption growth rate suggests there is little margin for exports in a 5-10 year horizon. Mexico's five refineries won't be able to provide the needed capacity, so it will likely remain a major importer of finished petroleum products.
Energy becomes a drag on the Mexican economy.
Raising the question of scientific uncertainties, Jim suggested that in fact they are political uncertainties. PRI had power, but it chose not to act, and now it has little power. In the current budget, there is 58.5 million pesos for energy. 55 million of this is directed to expanding existing oil fields, and only 3.5 million is for refinery upgrades and natural gas development. Because their strategy is to maximize oil production for foreign sales in order to service foreign debt.