In reality, however, it shoots blanks. The trigger would create uncertainty about what tax policy will be in the near future and would affect how businesses and investors plan their finances. Not knowing something as vital as what your tax bill will be would make most people extremely cautious about committing more resources to capital investments. That in turn would create a drag on the economy. If the surplus shrinks because of a declining economy, that would be the worst time to put the brakes on tax relief.
Low taxes create incentives to increase economic activity.
If the surplus shrinks because government spending is up, that's a signal that taxes aren't being cut enough to keep tax overpayments out of the hands of profligate politicians. These nervous nellies argue that Mr. Bush's plan is based on assumptions about the economy and anticipated budget surpluses a decade hence that may never materialize. The criticisms are themsevles founded on questionable assumptions about the 'cost of the tax cut. Indeed, historical precedents strongly suggest the Bush tax cut will 'cost less than its advertised price. But telling that to official Washington is like speaking Chinese to a Turk.