Growth rates over the two years basically drop from 8.3 percent in 99 and 5.8 percent in 2000 to the lower range of 4.6 percent in 2001 and 5.3 percent in 2002. Health and education services are projected to sustain continued strong growth over the period, though at a slower pace than in recent years. Business services jobs are forecast to continue growing in Arizona, though at growth rates down into single-digit territory. Trade is forecast to reign in the second largest share of jobs during the two years. RA s two-year forecast of 32,000 jobs shows nearly 14,000 of those are expected in 2001 with slightly more than 18,000 jobs in 2002.
Growth is projected in both wholesale and retail trade industries.
Both are expected to slow in 2001 because of consumer sentiment, while returning to improved vitality as optimism is strengthened in the second half of 2001. However, the pace is expected to be the slowest since 1995, slowing to an average growth rate of roughly 2 percent. This is a stark contrast to the growth rate of 9 percent in 97 and even near 3 percent in the most recent couple of years. RA forecasts call for an increase of approximately 8,800 jobs in this group. This is clearly a group still to watch, in part due to the as yet uncertain forces of energy deregulation, and in part due to the rising new technologies in communications, and the possible mergers and other dynamics of the transportation industry.