As this reality dawns on America's allies in Europe and Asia, the credibility of the U.S. security commitment will come into question. As a result, these allies may seek other ways to meet their security needs. The Europeans already are uncertain about America's credibility and staying power. Under these circumstances, an independent European nuclear force, with Germany's direct involvement, is not out of the question. In Asia the consequences of declining American military credibility are equally disturbing.
Japan has two options.
It could re-arm and become a major regional military power in its own right, something that would cause concern throughout Asia, or it could accommodate stronger regional military powers such as China and Russia and play one against the other whenever possible. Without America's protection, South Korea would likely want to expand its military power rapidly, in hopes of deterring a North Korean attack, but this certainly would lead to instability on the Korean Peninsula. The same adverse dynamic would arise toward U.S. friends and allies in the Middle East if a future regional conflict occured outside the Persian Gulf. The Gulf Arab states would likely expand their existing policy of playing their stronger and more radical neighbors, Iran and Iraq, against each other. This policy, however, failed when Iraq invaded Kuwait.