At current rates of usage, oil production is likely to peak in the year 2025. Thereafter oil will become increasingly scarce and expensive. The closer we come to the end of our cheap oil supply, the closer we will come to the mother of all economic depressions, unless we manage to find adequate cost-effective substitutes in plenty of time. Warning sign number two. Keep a sharp eye out for the annual rate of population increase.
Energy runs civilization, but people are the consumers of energy.
The more people on earth, the more energy and food and fresh water and arable land we will need to survive. World population keeps growing, but since the 1980s, the rate of world population increase has gone steadily down, from 2 percent to 1.4 percent. If that rate does not continue to fall, and fall steadily, the planet will be in big trouble. If it is still 1.4 percent in 2025, if in fact it has not dropped well below 1.4 percent by 2025, disaster looms. To bring the rate of population growth down, a crucial factor is the ability of women to read and write, which brings me to my third warning sign.