The thesis that current levels of demand are grossly higher than forecast may be true for someone else's forecasts, but not for those developed and adopted by the Energy Commission. In light of the California electricity peak demand being around 52,000-53,000 megawatts, this means that about 1,000 megawatts of new generation capacity, or demand reduction effects, must be added or occur, relatively, each year just to stay even. Power plants were not being built in the 1990s to keep pace with the forecast demand. One other factor must be kept in mind relative to forecast versus actual electricity demand. California's electricity system is very sensitive to temperature.
High temperatures produce high electricity loads.
Under extreme conditions demand can increase by roughly 4,000 megawatts above what we would expect under normal weather conditions. Our forecasts are based on normal weather conditions, although since 1998 we have included sensitivities to quantify temperature extremes.