Today they stand at 295 Million barrels and getting closer to the minimum safety operating level of 270 Million barrels despite the small buildup in inventory during the first trimester of 2000. It could even go higher to 3 to 1 ratio, but this would trigger a global effect on the economy which effects are complex to predict. Also it is my belief that cheap energy has allowed the US and the industrial world to finance almost anything. This coupled with globalization that has reduced the cost of labor and the cost of acquisitions through engineered 3rd world devaluations, has reduced the capital expenditures and cost of many things, hence supporting the world's reserve currency. When energy increases above a certain threshold, it is not longer outside of the core inflation.
Higher energy is CORE inflation as it affects directly our civilization.
This will be one less shackle on gold. I have always felt that the Saudis like to get paid in gold or for that matter convertible dollars to gold. If gold price is suppressed they can buy more ounces per barrel, specially now in the upward move of oil. Graphed conditions of inflation, oil price, interest rate and gold prices, suggest that 1998 was the trough of a 26 year cycle, which might be related to the so called 30 year wave theory of commodities. If this is the case, then all of the previous parameters are starting to accelerate in a growth pattern that could become explosive and out of hand.