But that will send the wrong signal to foreign investors. To be sure, higher oil prices have produced some winners. Oil provides roughly a quarter of the government's income, although its increased revenues are partially offset by higher spending on fuel subsidies to the poor. Some economists estimate that higher oil prices could lift economic growth in Indonesia by more than a percentage point this year. More generally, Asia's economic recovery doesn't yet seem to be in serious danger.
Growth is still robust, trade balances are mostly positive and inflation is largely under control.
So far, we haven't seen a worrisome deceleration in growth or a worrisome acceleration in inflation. It all depends on whether oil prices stay at current levels or go higher. If they go higher then we will probably have to shave our growth projection. The 11-nation group will decide whether to keep current production quotas in place. Expectations are that it will increase output by around 1 million barrels a day to just under 25 million barrels.