There are a number of assumptions that need to be made when addressing this issue for the short term. However, there are 17,656 ABEM certified emergency physicians. Currently, there is a shortage of properly trained and qualified emergency physicians. This is estimated to be 6,802 emergency physicians. It is very difficult to make projections about whether this shortage will continue to be a problem in the future because certain unknown factors will influence the future need.
Future projections demonstrate a continued, but substantially decreased shortage ten years from now.
This projection demonstrates a continued shortage of up to 6,000 emergency physicians in the next 5-10 years. The ED may on occasion have its own emergency, such as a sick physician, a problem with the schedule, overload, or a disaster situation. The need for an on-call system is dependent on the frequency of situations in which the current resources are overwhelmed. In low volume EDs, this may be an infrequent occurrence so that no formal on-call system, besides the availability of the medical director, is needed. In higher volume EDs, there is need for a call system to provide additional physician coverage.