It appears likely that soybean acreage will increase in 2000. My current projections call for acreage to be near 75.2 million acres planted and 73.9 million acres harvested. Given trend yields of about 38.4 bushels per acre this year, production would be near 2.839 BB, a record by a considerable margin. Total supplies would increased by almost 200 million bushels due to the big crop to provide our first 3 plus billion bushels supply. Total U.S. soybean use in the 2000 crop marketing year should remain near the record large level of the current marketing year.
Exports are likely to rise slightly depending upon the final result of South American harvest.
Domestic use will also remain fairly steady. Rebounding production in swine will offset the expected lower numbers of cattle on feed. The cattle cycle is turning and we should see fewer cattle on feed during the marketing period of the 2000 crop. Increased poultry numbers are encouraging and will help off set the decline in cattle numbers. That leaves ending stocks of about 525 million bushels, up nearly 180 million bushels from beginning stock levels and near an all time high.