In contrast, the average yield is projected to be a record 6,236 pounds per acre, up 6 percent from a year earlier. Long grain accounts for almost all of the decline in production. Low prices at planting were behind a major drop in long grain plantings across the South. At planting, medium grain prices were substantially higher than long grain prices. Exports account for all of the expected decline in total use.
Domestic disappearance is projected to increase fractionally.
While rough rice exports are projected to remain virtually unchanged at 25 million cwt, milled rice exports are projected to drop 14 percent to 64 million, the smallest in more than 20 years. Smaller U.S. supplies and expectations of very strong price competition in the international market are behind the substantial drop in U.S. milled rice exports. The market outlook is very different by grain type. A 14-percent drop in production accounts for the smaller supplies. Both domestic use and exports of long grain rice are projected to be well below a year earlier.