The skill of the temperature forecast drops off considerably in spring in Canada. Local skill is highest over the northern Canadian prairies, and modest along the west coast. Table 1 shows the value of the standard deviation in mm at selected stations. The forecast has modest to moderate expected skill, with a mean national score of 0.14 and a barely passable field significance of 0.050. Local skills are highest over sections of the southern Prairies, southwestern British Columbia and the east coast.
Exceptions are northern Quebec and parts of the Northwestern Territories.
Many of the statistical and dynamical models are predicting further weakening of the cold conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean over the spring season and a possible return toward a weak warm ENSO episode by mid-1997. Additionally, this forecast incorporates a component of persistence from the winter circulation pattern, especially over the prairies. Seasonal forecast of Canadian surface temperature by canonical correlation analysis. 13th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences. Skill of seasonal climate forecasts in Canada using canonical correlation analysis.