The slackening of international import demand in early 1996 has already had a significant impact on the exports of many countries. Thailand's rice exports have fallen sharply from the levels shipped in the corresponding period in the previous year. By 19 May, the country's shipments totaled 2.2 million tons compared to 2.6 million tons in the same period in 1995. Exports from India, the United States and Viet Nam have also been affected. India, which became the world's second largest rice exporter in 1995, is forecast to export about 2.5 million tons of rice in 1996 compared to 4.2 million tons in the previous year.
Logistical problems remain a major constraint to the country's export activities.
Although rice supplies in the country remain abundant, they are somewhat less than in the previous year, because of a slight reduction in output and a fall in rice stocks. Until end-March, government procurement of rice totaled 8.05 million tons compared to 11.55 million tons in the previous year. Both Punjab and Haryana, the surplus producing and rice exporting states in the north, had poorer crops in 1995. Both the trade in wheat and coarse grains, particularly maize, are expected to decline while an unchanged global trade in rice in 1997 is tentatively forecast. The bulk of the decrease in imports would be a result of smaller purchases anticipated for the developed countries, although aggregate imports by the developing countries are also forecast to decline slightly.