Models and Data Assimilation Carry out basic and applied research on the use of numerical models in understanding and prediction of hazardous and severe weather. The work includes investigating new approaches for the use of numerical weather prediction models in operational forecasting, particularly the use of high-resolution models and optimal approaches to get information from those models. Other goals include improving the methods for incorporation of observations into weather prediction models. Ensemble forecast techniques are also employed. Aspects currently include exploring the forecast value contained in new operational data streams, clarifying use of new forecasting technologies, developing the scientific basis of new hazardous weather forecasting techniques including winter weather, and utilizing the collaboration between NSSL and the SPC in a feedback process in which NSSL staffs provides forecasting support and partnership in collaborative research of mutual relevance.
Ensemble forecasting plays a significant role.
Joint Mobile Research Facilities Maintain and operate mobile research facilities through a collaboration among NSSL, the OU School of Meteorology, and the Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies. The goal of this effort is to enhance our understanding of tornadoes as well as the mechanisms that cause tornadogenesis so that we can better predict and warn of tornado occurrences. The approach taken is to collect in-situ data very near storms that have the potential to produce tornadoes so that we can determine why some storms produce tornadoes while others do not. We then analyze these data in conjunction with operational data streams to determine the fundamental causes of tornado production as well as how we can utilize operational systems to predict tornado occurrence. The goal of this effort is to increase our understanding and enhance forecasting capabilities of summer and winter storms that affect western North America.