Reconciliation between North and South Korea will lead ultimately to unification of the Korean Peninsula. Internal dynamics are propelling Japan toward normal major power status. In the light of such developments, the U.S. military presence on a large scale will not be politically sustainable either domestically or in Asia. As the international environment changes, Washington should find new ways to bolster its influence. Arrangements that provide the United States with access to other countries' bases will be more sustainable politically and less expensive financially than maintaining American bases on foreign soil.
Foresight is needed here.
The presence of American forces in the region will decline, security alliances will be less important, and a pluralistic security community will very likely emerge. The establishment of an Asia Pacific security community is possible because states in the region have shared interests in a peaceful and stable security environment, and because they increasingly benefit from growing economic interactions. This nascent mechanism for regional security will evolve over time into a more effective means for promoting regional cooperation on security issues. In this context, the United States will still have a significant role. For its part, China needs to assure America and other countries that it has no intention of upsetting the existing regional order, and that as long as its legitimate security interests are accommodated, it can live with a regional security structure in which America plays a leading role.