For all of these reasons, we should not worry whether China can be fed but how best to help China meet her future food requirements. That is really a policy decision in the hands of Chinese officials. Essentially, China needs to choose whether it will adhere to past ideas of food self-sufficiency or if it will accelerate its integration into the global food system. While China can produce most of the cereals it needs in the period under discussion, that is not, in my opinion, what Chinese agriculture is best suited to do. China has 22 percent of the world's population living on only 7 to 9 percent of the globe's arable land.
Land is a scarce resource in China.
Rural employment prospects would be enhanced by shifting to an agricultural system that uses labor more intensively. Creating economic opportunities for farmers to remain in rural areas by shifting to more labor-intensive crops, more meat production and more rural food processing, milling and packaging facilities makes sense. It will slow the migration of people to already crowded urban areas. In reality, such an evolution in Chinese agriculture already is well underway. What this analysis suggests is that China really has two reasons to continue moving toward an open, trade-based food system.