The usual interpretation of what a recession is two or more consecutive quarters of falling output hasn t taken place so economists expect the economy to barely touch a recession. This is growth, not decline, but there s a visible direction. Evidence of an impending recession in the United States is not substantiated in start s assemblage of 1,000 admirable manufacturers, although there are negative signs. We will call attention to a few. First of all, on the strictly positive side are the oil companies.
Growth is impressive across the board billions upon billions of dollars.
Moreover, gasoline prices rose strongly in the summer months and tended to persist into the fall and winter season. Heating-oil prices in the East were historic because of low inventories and cold weather. Higher natural gas prices responded in kind. Some of their desire to maximize profits was to offset the bad years. The same dimensions are present in the rest of the major oil companies.