Pyongyang has also performed miserably elsewhere in the international arena. Thus, politically, economically and militarily, North Korea is losing ground. Three futures methodologies or models were used in this paper. North Korea is experiencing negative trends in all its major institutions, suggesting an imminent collapse. Foreign trade continues to decrease, as many of North Korea's trading partners are demanding cash for trade, which Pyongyang simply does not have.
Food production continues to decrease.
While floods in 1995 and 1996 contributed to significant food shortfalls those years, the real problem is systemic. North Korea has a centrally-planned agricultural system that can not effectively feed its people. The food shortfall for 1996 was estimated at 2.3 million metric tons, or roughly one third of total food need. As a result of the decline in the economy and food production, disease and malnutrition is increasing. According to Red Cross officials and even a US congressman, several hundreds of thousands of North Koreans face severe malnutrition and possibly starvation in the next year.