Clinton beat George Bush partly because recovery from the 1990-91 recession was so slow, most people thought the economy was still in a slump in 1992. Contrary to popular views, the Fed has conducted monetary policy with little regard for politics. Conn. The average increase in short-term rates has been half a percentage point. N.Y. That's the record. It doesn't take account of which party controls Congress or other factors affecting economic policy.
Factors influencing the economy can also carry over from a previous administration.
By the end of four years, economic growth after inflation has averaged more than 20 percent under Democratic presidents. Growth averaged 12 percent when Republicans occupied the White House. The jobless rate moves higher under a Republican president. Also, interest rates are higher. On the other hand, inflation starts higher under a Republican presidency, and then winds up somewhat less at the end of four years than under a Democrat.