Most forecasters hold that by summer, the entire economy could very well be growing more slowly, battered down by Asia. Indeed, many say that the more widespread the problems in Asia become, the more they would affect American businesses that rely on business abroad, and the more they could threaten the health of American stock markets. But even as it takes away with one hand, it gives with the other. What it is giving, more than anything else, is lower interest rates, making home and car loans cheaper. So does an influx of investment in American government securities from investors looking for a safer bet than Asia.
Home construction is strong, and so are vehicle sales.
These two huge industries are giving the American economy a powerful if perhaps temporary boost. Members of Congress said the prospect of consumers benefiting in some way from the Asian crisis without any immediate economic problems has made it somewhat harder to justify American involvement in the international bailouts of South Korea, Thailand and Indonesia. But those who support the bailouts said that in their conversations with American business leaders, most executives are deeply concerned about the implications of the Asia crisis for their profits, their competitiveness and their ability to continue creating new jobs. Basing their predictions on the expected trade damage, many forecasters estimate that the Asian crisis will in time shave half a percentage point from the nation's annual economic growth, which was more than 3.5 percent last year. Nonetheless, the pluses from the Asian crisis pop up frequently, and in unexpected ways.