The powder keg and the spark . Either no crisis, just altered private awareness among the elite, or a crisis of non-delivery and cash flow problems. Progressive slide to chaos and violence over a period of time inability of the government to pay salaries tax increases and food shortage. Violence and disintegration. Kenya is already caught in a system of violence from within and without.
Economic reform is the minimum survival condition.
The shared fear of violence and disorder brings everyone back to negotiations. Achieving a coherent state in order to achieve economic reform. Ensuring the process is not influenced by special interests and bringing all parties to the negotiating table. Society will spontaneously divide on ethnic lines. Classic economic growth is possible quickly.