That's a little more than 25 percent. A study of 30 of the biggest upsets over the last two decades provides a statistical profile as to why upsets happen and sheds light on what might happen when this year's tournament tips off with 32 first-round games today and Friday. Underdogs have bite in their shots. Teams that pulled upsets shot 48 percent in the 30 games while the losers shot 43 percent. In the games played under the three-point shot rule, upset winners shot 35 percent from behind the line while the losers shot 30.7 percent.
Free throws are crucial.
Rebounds and turnovers don't matter. The teams that were upset had more rebounds and the turnovers were even. Richmond used that style to become one of the NCAA Tournament's upset kings, defeating Auburn, Indiana and Syracuse as a double-digit seed. The scholarship limit and the large number of underclassmen who declare for the NBA draft have made the power teams weaker. The top seeds are not as dominant as they once were.