For example, one study found that in response to a 10 percent rise in GNP, increases in food imports range from 5.3 percent to 10.1 percent and the rise in cereal imports ranges from 8.6 to 10.6 percent. Theoretically, increased domestic agricultural production could displace agricultural imports. This is the potential outcome that worries agricultural producers in donor countries. Empirical studies, however, consistently show that, for two reasons, growth in the agricultural sector actually increases agricultural imports by developing countries. First, as noted, agricultural growth causes growth throughout the economy.
Incomes rise when domestic production increases, and consumers increase purchases.
Thus, demand expands along with, and often more than, production. The increase in domestic production cannot meet all the expanded demand, and agricultural imports increase. Second, while some crops are grown in both developed and developing countries, many are not. For example, high-quality wheat is difficult or impossible to produce in many developing countries. An increase in agricultural imports by one country is, of course, an increase in agricultural exports by another.