The combination of these two factors will lead to increased unemployment amongst those competing for low-wage jobs. A final factor that could influence the impact of welfare reform on the low-wage labor market is the performance of the American economy. Strong, longterm economic growth could drastically increase the demand for labor allowing more people to find jobs. As William Julius Wilson said during a recent lecture, today's healthy economic environment would have to persist for twenty years for these problems of high unemployment and decreasing wages to disappear. It is unrealistic to expect the U.S. economy to experience continued growth without recession.
History indicates that recessions hit the low end of the labor market hardest.
The success of these welfare reform measures hinges on the state of the economy. In the long run, these measures, when combined with periods of economic recession, will lead to increased levels of poverty and unemployment for those competing for lowwage jobs. Presently, the US economy can absorb one million additional workers with only moderate decreases in wage and employment levels. Given the low skill and education levels of welfare recipients and the already deteriorating condition of the low-wage labor market, finding jobs for this specific population will be extremely problematic. During a time of economic recession, these measures will leave the most vulnerable members of society without recourse.