In order to predict the effects of oil spills on polar bears, data on oil spill trajectories must be married with data on polar bear distributions and abundance to yield hypothetical patterns of mortality. The long-term effect of the spill on the stability of bear populations can be predicted by applying a population recovery model to mortality data as derived above. The USGS-BRD maintains a data set on polar bear distribution in Arctic waters.
Information is also available on the potential effects of oil on individual polar bears.
The MMS has an updateable arctic oil-spill trajectory model that is used each time there is a Beaufort Sea Environmental Impact Statement. This study has been designed to link the efforts of BRD polar bear researchers and MMS oil spill modelers to predict the effects of hypothetical Beaufort Sea oil spills and other postulated mortality on the population recovery of polar bears. Computer program modules will be developed to this end. Conduct a sensitivity analysis of this model. Create a database on expected mortality of polar bears under various oil spill scenarios that can be interfaced with oil spill trajectory models.