In a short period of time, it has created a vast new economy, reshaped the competitive landscape, given life to new business models and challenged the very existence of others. Indeed the world has changed dramatically. But, what is as significant as the changes themselves is the fact that few people would have foreseen them only a short time ago. We may get the general trend right, but often misjudge the result. The complex nature of the world tends to confound our desire to embrace simplistic notions of the present and bold visions about the future.
Every action tends to have unanticipated and unintended consequences.
Many of these consequences could not possibly be imagined, or would seem so unlikely as to represent preposterous suppositions for any kind of rational investment strategy. After the fact, of course, they are all easily explainable. Twenty years ago, we framed our vision of the future with an understanding about the scarcity of oil, the power of OPEC, the threat of inflation and the countervailing power and influence of the Soviet Union. Today, many of these understandings seem largely irrelevant. Ten years ago, the Berlin Wall came down, and two years later, the Soviet Union dismantled itself into fifteen separate countries.