The war's worst effect is that 350,000 displaced people are living in overcrowded villages which do not have the resources to feed newcomers, let alone themselves. A second change from 1985 is that the new government, which overthrew Mengistu in 1991, set up a system of emergency grain stocks to cover the threat of famine. The problem it now faces is that the European Union has been woefully slow in replenishing the stocks even though the Ethiopian government warned of impending problems in December last year, and again early this year. Britain is one of four European countries which provides grain in addition to the EU's contribution and Clare Short's Department for International Development insists it replenished the stocks that were drawn down last year. But the EU's total is much greater in size and Britain shares a measure of blame, along with other EU governments, in not having pressed the commission in Brussels to act sooner and faster.
Famines are complex things since parts of Ethiopia produce a grain surplus.
This is not a countrywide disaster. The Ethiopian government is buying around 100,000 tonnes of grain from local traders but, market forces being what they are even in famine conditions, it has asked the EU and western charities not to submit tenders at the moment for fear of the price being driven up. What Europe must do is speed up its promised deliveries of foreign-grown grain in the next two months before the threat of famine becomes real. Governments also need to look to the long term. One of Ethiopia's difficulties since 1985 is that its population has doubled.