Holidays, such as Thanksgiving, can give the weekly numbers some unusual bounces. In fact, with the coming Christmas and New Year's holidays, the weekly figures will be moving around erratically until sometime in January. Nevertheless, with a moving average or a monthly series, the claims can show us where things are headed. Initial claims have been rising. In last week's report they hit 358,000, the highest since July, 1998.
Initial claims are usually a good short term indicator of both the economy and the labor markets.
When the claims series is above 400,000 we are at or very close to a recession. Between 300,000 and 400,000 is roughly slow to normal growth. Rising weekly claims are not a good sign. Currently, claims are rising. The climb portends higher unemployment rates ahead.