We had a warm fall and corn went into bins and onto piles warm. Fall was not dry with rains soaking into warm corn in outside piles. That has caused some damage and will force an aggressive effort to move that grain into market channels. The carrying charge structure of the corn market last fall also did its job of pulling corn away from the front end of the market into deferred sales. In other words, we've see the tightest supply period of the year for corn.
Farmers have a lot of grain to move as elevators make room.
A 34-week cycle low is due in corn in late March. We note that the prospective plantings and grain stocks reports will be released March 30th. A retracement of recent losses is expected in corn in Feb. but a rally now will likely meet with more aggressive farmer selling. Bulls want to believe South America's soybean crop is in the market. With generally favorable soil moisture conditions, it will be difficult to turn hot and dry enough to significantly impact the South American crop.