Import prices developed rather differently than foreseen at the start of 2000, as did both key exchange rates. Against the euro the koruna appreciated considerably more than originally expected, whereas against the US dollar it was weaker than originally forecast. During the course of 2000 Q1, the statistical data signalled that the effect of import prices on consumer prices was less pronounced than would have corresponded to the assumptions in the original forecast. This gave rise to divergences from the forecast in individual commodity groups. The reference scenario had assumed that Ural crude would cost CZK 660 per barrel, whereas in the event the price was CZK 1,125 per barrel.
Fuel prices play a significant role in the prices of numerous nontradable commodities.
Another factor was the increasing role of the strongly competitive market as a significant price movement factor. In conditions of only moderately rising demand, this prevented faster growth in prices. The forecasts for demand and for wage-cost inflation and the expectations of their role in inflation in 2000 were essentially confirmed. Food prices rose somewhat faster than predicted. Although the annual growth in imported inflation deviated upward from the forecast, the effect of imported inflation and import prices on consumer prices was smaller than expected.