The uncertainty of flood outlooks and flood forecasts vary from season to season and location to location. The uncertainty of flood forecasts tends to be less than the uncertainty of outlooks due to their shorter lead times. This map DOES NOT assess short-term risk of flooding, particularly, flash flooding. Flash flooding typically results from localized, intense precipitation. Forecast lead times are typically a day or less.
Flash flooding can occur in areas of low flood potential.
Indeed, it is possible to have flash flooding in a drought area. In some cases, drought impacts can either continue or quickly resume after a flash flood event. This paradox is due to the fact rains that can cause flash flooding happen so quickly that the soils do not have chance to absorb the water. If flash flood runoff flows into streams that do not have reservoirs to capture the water, much of the rainfall leaves the area, having limited impact on drought conditions. The National Hydrologic Assessment provides links to information from many sources, but the areas identified as being of concern for possible flooding are based almost exclusively on NWS sources.