As the ripples from any one action spread out, their effects unpredictably magnify or nullify the ripples from other actions. Thus events that seemed at the time to have great importance may prove to lead nowhere, while actions so minor as to escape notice may have tremendous consequences. Events wholly outside the range of political and military leaders' vision can have an unforeseen impact on the situation. New economic and social ideas, technological innovations with no obvious military applications, changes in climatic conditions, demographic shifts, all can lead to dramatic political and military changes. Enemy actions, friction, imperfect knowledge, low order probabilities, and sheer random chance introduce new variables into any evolving situation.
Events begin to spin out of control.
History is too full of examples of great states defeated by seemingly inferior powers, of experienced leaders and armies overthrown by inexperienced newcomers, to believe that politics and war are predictable, controllable phenomena. Thus it is seldom enough to set a good strategic course and follow it through. Effective strategists must have a feel for the nature of this environment and be prepared for both the unexpected setbacks and the sudden opportunities it is certain to deliver. Military strategy demands a capacity for both painstaking planning and energetic adaptation to unfolding events. Nonetheless, the Marine Corps' new Warfighting , Strategy, and Command and Control manuals have begun the process of introducing this vital paradigm.