The other is to expect that the energy policies existing before the Kyoto conference of December 1997 will be adapted to tackle the issue of pollution and climate change. There is nothing exceptional about this growth rate, which is close to the one recorded since 1971. What is striking is that two-thirds of the increase in energy demand before 2020 will arise in China and the other developing countries. CO 2 emissions under the BAU scenario are therefore expected to rise, and the rate of increase will accelerate, reflecting the stabilisation of nuclear power generation worldwide and the continued rapid growth in coal use in China and other Asian countries. Oil continues to dominate world energy consumption, with transport use increasing its share of the total.
Gas consumption rises to approach coal.
Hydro-electric power and renewables rise steadily, but remain at low levels. As for nuclear power, consumption stabilises by 2020. This decline in intensity follows the trend of the past 15 years. These uses are plotted against GDP in the second chart. Some key trends in fuel uses are important to bear in mind.