In the interim, one may ask whether enrollments have been affected by the intense controversy that has swirled around the resolution, before and after it was initially passed in spring 1998. Overall Enrollment versus Freshman Enrollment. However, a closer look indicates that total enrollment figures conceal far more than they reveal. This is apparent when one puts the spotlight on first-time freshmen , generally the most strategic group for assessing enrollment trends and access to higher education. Since a policy change that raises the admissions bar primarily affects incoming freshmen, the full effect of such a change on total enrollments can only become visible after it has had an opportunity to cumulate over successive incoming classes.
Freshmen are thus an excellent group for gauging longer-term impact.
To clarify the enrollment question, we have looked at fall, first-time freshmen enrollments in senior colleges from 1992 through 1998. This examination suggests a far different and more ominous picture than the one represented by overall CUNY enrollment figures. Indeed, the focus on freshmen indicates that even before the phase-in of the new CUNY admissions resolution has started, a severe decline is occurring in senior college freshmen enrollments. This can be seen in table 1, which shows fall enrollments for the seven colleges that exclusively provide bachelor's programs. It identifies two years in which there is a sharp change relative to the previous fall.