Los Angeles has the largest enrollment statewide and is projected to increase 1.4 percent by 2000. Over the decade, Los Angeles enrollment is projected to decline slightly because birth cohorts are smaller, although grade progression ratios for the county are projected to return to higher long term averages. The majority of the counties showing a decline are small counties with rural populations, many of them with older or seasonal population bases. Plumas, Yuba, Modoc, Trinity, and Sierra are projected to decline by at least 25 percent over the decade. For Yuba, Sierra, and Humboldt, the dramatic enrollment decline over the year is primarily a result of changes in charter school enrollment.
Enrollment is projected using a cohort survival projection technique.
The GPR represents the proportion of students expected to progress from one grade to the next. The most likely progression model is chosen based upon analysis of historical trends, knowledge of migration trends and demographic characteristics of each county, including the most recent population estimates, and survey results from selected school districts. Entering cohorts of kindergartens and first graders are projected using lagged births. The best fitting progression ratios are chosen independently for the projection of each grade including high school graduates. The state total by grade is the result of the summation of the projection by grades at the county level.