The alternative would be to treat the project as a purely commercial venture that must succeed on its own. In the past, some Bush advisers have criticized the Clinton administration for defining the pipeline as a vital strategic interest, arguing that its importance to U.S. security has been overblown. Observers will be watching closely to see whether Bush renews the office of Caspian adviser, a post that Clinton created. As for the reports of independent institutes arguing against Baku-Ceyhan, many of the same objections have been raised before. Robert Ebel said that administrations are rarely swayed by such recommendations.
Future policy is more likely to be determined by an internal review of regional goals.
The biggest question for Baku-Ceyhan remains the amount of Caspian oil that will be available for the pipeline. Unless enough oil is found to fill it, the project seems unlikely to be profitable, whether governments decide to support it or not.