There is, nevertheless, little immediate prospect of decisive military shifts or revival of stalled mediation efforts. The conflict has spawned an ongoing humanitarian crisis, and Sudan's neighbors could yet be drawn into the war. But key steps such as disarmament of faction forces are not yet implemented, and a new collapse is easily possible in 1997. In Angola the United Nations peacekeeping force is scheduled to withdraw by mid-year. On paper the demobilization of Unita forces is complete, but observers warn that as many as 20,000 Unita troops are still operational.
Insecurity is pervasive in the countryside, and there is a real threat of renewed open warfare.
The internal and international campaign for democracy in Nigeria will continue, given the failure of the Abacha regime to offer more than token promises of change. Neither Western nor African countries are likely soon to take additional steps to increase pressure on the military regime, however, unless there is a dramatically visible escalation of the crisis. Pro-democracy efforts in most other countries are even less likely to attract major international attention and support. The Clinton Administration will have to decide soon whether to join Canada and other countries in pressing rapidly for a total ban on anti-personnel landmines or continue deferring to the Pentagon's opposition to quick action on the issue. But the spectacle of the transition, engineered unilaterally by the United States, was not encouraging.