Michael Caine is the closest nominee, and an Academy favorite, so this is no sure thing. Chl e Sevigny will be unfortunately overshadowed by Hilary Swank, and has very little chance here. It's rare that a director nominated for a non-nominated film would win, so Spike Jonze is unfortunately left in the cold. Sam Mendes is the likeliest nominee, but Shyamalan or Hallstrom could quickly come out of the wings. The Cider House Rules has its best shot at an award here, though it has tough competition.
Election has the most deserving script out of the bunch, but has the weakest chance of the five.
Another tight, tight race. American Beauty has to be the front runner here. Being John Malkovich is the most deserving, but has been virtually ignored in the other categories. The Insider Sleepy Hollow Snow Falling on Cedars Snow Falling on Cedars would be my pick here, though Sleepy Hollow's atmospherics make it a strong contender. The Matrix has the best editing out of these five, but will likely get overlooked.