The U.S. economy continues to advance briskly, defying forecasts of more moderate growth.
Few analysts believe the expansion can go on forever.
As the expansion continues to age, economists will increasingly be called on to predict the next recession. According to Andrew J. Filardo, assistant vice president and economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, recession prediction models may help economists gauge the likelihood of imminent recession. Filardo states that all five recession prediction models can provide reliable information about future recession. To be sure, some of the models have missed spotting some past recessions, some have sent more false signals than others, some were more accurate at certain forecast horizons, and some were more robust to real-time data than others. So, analysts must carefully interpret the signals from the models.