Unemployment currently stands at 3.9 percent. Nevertheless, a hard landing could feel like a recession, even though it's not, says Allen Sinai, chief global economist for Primark Decision Economics. The economy is running full blast. Interest rates have been rising for a while without putting a dent in optimism. Stocks start to drop.
Investors enthusiastically buy the dip.
Business growth tops out and declines. High interest rates level out and drop a bit. Stocks stage occasional, strong rallies and investors buy. Then the market drops again. Interest rates fall.