For every murder committed, someone spends only 37 months in prison. Expected punishment for rape is only 119 prison days, for robbery 52 days, for serious assault 13 days and for burglary 8 days. For every motor vehicle stolen, someone spends only two days in prison. Nonetheless, expected punishment is significantly greater than it was in 1980 for every category of serious crime. Between 1980 and 1996, expected punishment more than doubled for murder and nearly tripled for rape.
Evidence shows that potential criminals respond to incentives.
Crime increases when expected punishment declines, and vice versa. In response, the serious crime rate more than quadrupled during those years. In the 1980s, expected punishment began to increase, accompanied by the leveling off and then a decline in the serious crime rate. Between 1980 and 1996, expected punishment for serious crimes increased from 10.1 to 21.7 prison days, a 115 percent increase, and serious crime declined. During the 1980s, California increased its prison population at a rate faster than the nation and experienced a decline in serious crime relative to that of the nation.