The 1995 drought was late in the season and was not considered a strong drought. The 1988 drought was the most recent wide-spread drought of consequence. The Benner 18.6-Years Cycle would indicate that it is not likely to have more than one serious drought between 1992 and 2004. The 1995 drought may or may not qualify as that one drought for the 12 year period, according to Taylor. The chance of a drought does not increase because a drought is overdue.
History shows that being overdue for drought slightly diminishes the chance.
Should La Nina end or the SOI fall below 0.4 by May 1999, the expected yield would improve considerably. A wise manager plans ahead but also plans to adjust as conditions develop.