Manufacturing production appeared to ease, although shipments remained steady. Retailers made scant gains in the Christmas shopping period compared with the previous year. Auto sales slipped in December for the second month in a row. Total bank lending increased slightly, largely because of growth in consumer lending. The consensus among the business firms contacted for this report is that economic activity will be essentially flat in the quarters ahead, although some contacts expect slow growth for their businesses.
Manufacturers expect only steady conditions during the first half of the year.
Retailers anticipate a slight gain in sales during the next few months but continued pressure on profit margins. Auto dealers expect sales to run at a steady pace in 2001, but to be below last year's rate. Bankers forecast little if any gains in lending through the first half of this year. Despite the current slowdown in growth and subdued prospects for the year ahead, firms in a range of industry sectors continue to report that they are having difficulty finding qualified workers at all skill levels. Manufacturing Conditions in the Third District manufacturing sector were virtually flat in December, although there were some indications that production was slipping.