Today's Internet is a kind of broadband on training wheels. Even in its current, nascent stage, it has successfully engaged consumers, unleashed creative forces within enterprises and connected previously disparate individuals into virtual communities. In contrast, it took radio 38 years, telephone 36 years, television 13 years and cable TV 10 years to achieve similar levels of penetration. Now the Internet is poised to exert an even greater influence. The number of IP messages in any given period now equals the number of phone and fax messages, implying a substitution ratio of 1.0.
History shows that there are major consequences when such inflection points are reached.
The onset of inexpensive air travel diminished the share of the transportation market of sea, rail and even some auto travel, with ramifications for commerce, population distributions and regional cultures. Broadband will continue to drive Internet substitution for older forms of communication. The survey was of roughly 1,000 users who access the Internet via cable modems. Those with high-speed access to the Internet are a minority now. Of course, lower prices have raised demand for almost all electronic services in the past.