If it incurs a fourth headache in Aston, the election could well be the sort of migraine that sees governments change. Aston was held last election by just over 4 per cent, which is less than half the swing that saw Ryan change hands. For all that, such was the support for Peter Nugent that, had a general election been held a couple of weeks ago, Labor believes it would not have won Aston. It is only now with a byelection looming that it has a chance to recapture some of the crucial ground lost in Melbourne's east in the 1990 election, held amid the financial crisis besetting the Cain government. In the 11 years since, the Liberals have become well dug in across the outer east, its group of active local members such as Peter Nugent and Bob Charles in La Trobe forming many links with local organisations and community groups.
Liberals dominate the state seats, too, and in the local councils.
Labor, on the contrary, has struggled to regroup, but efforts have begun to pay off in the past 18 months. Intended to run north-south and join the Eastern Freeway to the Monash Freeway, it will also have the benefit of removing massive congestion on Springvale and Stud roads. Mr Nugent was one of three local federal Liberals pushing hard for federal Transport Minister John Anderson to see the logic of the new road. He was scheduled to visit the area during the week of the Federation celebrations, and probably still will, according to Liberals in the east. Since the Bracks Government has offered to pay half the cost of the freeway, it can be assumed that Mr Boland will also be supporting it.