First of all, Slobodan Milosevic's aggressive nationalistic regime , the main source of chaos and war in the Post-Cold War Balkan turmoil, is still in power. It is true that this regime has been threatened with the ongoing NATO action and recent Hague indictment. It is also true that in the long run this threat will probably weaken and finally crash the regime. But before this final collapse comes, this regime will probably become even more aggressive and dangerous for its surrounding. This is especially true if the surrounding is the only remaining territory for such kind of exercises, like Montenegro is.
Endangered dictatorship is the most dangerous dictatorship.
Slobodan Milosevic's regime and Greater Serbian alternative have had a decreasing but still significant support in Montenegro. Therefore, the Greater Serbian threat to Montenegro has been a very complex mixture of internal and external forces, not a simple external threat. This makes Montenegro be extremely vulnerable to any Greater Serbian aggressive move. Last but not least, the Post-Cold War Balkan scene is far from normalization. It goes without saying how much this scene favors and breeds violent forces and alternatives.