The field significance is also shown, reflecting the probability of randomly obtaining overall map skill equal to or higher than that which actually occurred. Field significance is evaluated using a Monte Carlo procedure in which the forecast versus observation correspondences are shuffled randomly 1000 times. The forecast has a rather limited utility in terms of expected skill, with a mean national score of 0.12. Locally, modest skills are found over the Great Lakes region and over an area just west of Hudson Bay. Southeastern Ontario and much of arctic Canada are expected to be slightly below normal, whereas temperatures are forecast to be above normal over most of western and south-central Canada.
Local skills are highest over sections of northern Quebec and the western Arctic.
No particularly strong signals are influencing this forecast. Even if the ENSO state were more strongly defined, ENSO is not known to appreciably affect Canadian climate in summer as it is from winter through mid-spring. A gradual historical cooling trend in the north Pacific over the last 15 years would imply a deeper than normal low pressure gyre in the northeastern Pacific and an amplified western Canadian ridge, which would produce warmer than normal temperatures in western Canada. The Official Environment Canada seasonal forecast can be obtained from the Canadian Meteorological Centre in Montreal. Seasonal forecast of Canadian surface temperature by canonical correlation analysis.