We risk isolating these sub-populations with, as yet, unknown consequences. Biologists attempt to isolate environmental factors and measure their effect on a population. However, the interaction of variables is likely to have the largest effect on caribou. For example, global warming can affect the amount of snow and the presence of hard layers in it. This may force caribou into new locations, putting them in contact with wolves, and it can also make them more vulnerable to being caught in a chase.
Effects can be subtle.
A slight decline in condition can reduce fertility and increase mortality. We do not know to what extent caribou can adjust to altered habitats and communities. We will not know the answer for decades, and we may not know which change was the critical factor. Adaptive management will not work unless we learn more about ecological relationships. In the absence of hunting and predation, reindeer can persist in markedly altered habitats, as seen in Scandinavia.