After all, he only has to hold the seats Labor got last time to win again, and he'll do better than that. And the mail, the good mail, is he won't drop any. And if all this comes to pass, then imagine what that does for Liberal morale in Ryan. Think of the diarrhoea if Labor were to knock over Ryan. It isn't out of the question.
Labor gives itself an outside chance.
Moore told friends before Christmas he couldn't guarantee the seat would be retained, even though Ryan has only ever voted Liberal in the 52 years since its boundaries were drawn in 1949. And with Howard so vulnerable, Ryan, for all its background, could turn Labor for now, its voters knowing their defection meant little in a by-election, and then return to the spiritual fold in the real election at the end of the year. But first Peter Beattie walks on water.