Financial markets in particular have become adept at detecting the foul political moods that threaten even the soundest economic reform programs. As the reformers of the 1990s discovered, the confidence of foreign investors and governments determines an economic program's success as much as the support of domestic constituencies. Foreign influences may not be as meaningful to the United States, given its size and international dominance. Nonetheless, many an international monkey wrench can be thrown deliberately or inadvertently into the wheels of the U.S. economy, wreaking havoc on the best-laid plans to lift confidence. A crashing Japan, a sputtering Europe, or a stream of economic crises in emerging markets can surely hamper a U.S. recovery.
Leadership is the mother of all signals.
People trust people, not programs, so good leadership at the highest level is essential to bolster economic confidence. The ability to lead the United States out of a precipitous downturn was not a major consideration in the minds of voters in 2000. Yet as the U.S. economy continues to struggle, President Bush's leadership abilities will become a crucial factor in bolstering or hampering confidence. Both are much easier to diagnose than to cure. You may give each page an identifying name, server, and channel on the next lines.