That's the kind of machinery that a new party like Keadilan can only dream about. In fact, Keadilan's glaring lack of political organizers is its most cited flaw. The Front now holds 163 of the 192 parliamentary seats, so the opposition would have to win a total of 65, a huge tally for parties that are used to counting their seats on the fingers of two hands. The Front is certain to lose some seats, says analyst Razak Baginda, if for no other reason than because the margin of victory in the 1995 election was so huge that it would be almost impossible. But he also believes the two-thirds majority isn't seriously in danger.
Many analysts see a greater possibility of change at the local level.
Pas could gain control of three or four state assemblies, says party president Fadzil, which would in itself be a serious blow to a government that has never had to deal with more than two state assemblies in opposition hands. A great deal depends on timing, of course, and there the cards are all in the government's favour. Under Malaysia's parliamentary system, the prime minister can call elections at any time during his five-year term. Most estimates are currently centred on August or September, with bets for an early election rising with the economy and other signals such as a sudden increase in government largesse to civil servants and the recent appearance of billboards warning foreigners against meddling in Malaysian politics. Whenever it comes, this election is likely to be one of Mahathir's toughest battles, says Musa Hitam, a former deputy prime minister who resigned after disagreements with Mahathir over policy.