These new technologies will dominate high-end chip applications by the end of the decade. CMP will meet the challenge of these new materials. Very rapid shrinks, DUV resists and optical imaging system optimization represent a one-time gain and will soon play out. The industry will have to revert to wavelength changes, which will require major new fab investments, to achieve new shrinks. Foundries will continue to be the fastest-growing form of fab investment.
Foundries do more than simply pool resources and share risks.
They have produced a fundamentally new chip source that provides a variety of ASICs, enabling IC penetration into many new, smaller markets. Next-generation lithography will begin to take share from optics in 2004. ASIC makers are expecting optical system mask costs for leading-edge devices to be very expensive. This should happen around 2004. 300 mm will be the choice for many new fab equipment purchases beginning in 2002.