Maintaining production increases and increasing market share becomes harder as total poultry approaches surpassing red meat consumption on a retail weight basis in 2004. After two years of low net returns to turkey producers and with the prospect of 9 percent higher pork production in 1998 turkey production is expected to decline in 1998. This would be the first production decline since 1982. Competition with sharply lower priced pork trimmings in export markets and with hams on the domestic market is expected to keep pressure on turkey prices. Turkey production increases later in the forecast period are expected to about keep pace with population increases and keep per capita turkey consumption relatively constant at 18-19 pounds per capita.
Egg production is currently fairly profitable and egg production is increasing.
Table egg production increases are expected to slightly outpace population increases and bring per capita egg consumption to 245 eggs per person by 2007. The trend to increased use of eggs as ingredients in further processed food products and reduced consumption of shell eggs is expected to continue through the baseline period. To Continue Increasing Poultry exports are expected to continue increasing through the baseline period, but at a much slower pace than in the mid 1990s. The Asian crisis is expected to affect poultry exports less than for the red meats since relatively low valued poultry items are exported. Also Asia does not represent as large a share of U.S. export sales at about 25 percent.