In each case, the series have begun to fall, and in each case they look remarkably similar to the pattern seen in Canada. There is no commonly accepted explanation of the data on falling crime rates. We do not have any better understanding of why crime rates are declining now than why they were increasing previously. There are a number of theories, but none has been compellingly successful in explaining the data across countries and time. This article will now focus on observations about rates of crime and rates of incarceration.
Incarceration does two things to the crime rate.
First, it removes proven offenders from the street. Second, it provides some element of deterrence, both for those who would re-offend and for those primed to offend who witness the outcome of offending. The effect of incapacitation and example on the potential criminal s margins of choice is to reduce the crime rate. Critics argue that prisons make offenders more likely to offend in the future and that the deterrence feature is minimal. Column 3 in table 1 may provide some evidence.