Any sizable reduction might raise prices sharply and even trigger a recession. Global stock markets are naturally nervous. Nor are the Mideast's politics any secret. Each time, oil prices jumped. Despite this history, the hazards have recently been minimized.
Globalization presumes that materialism refashions world politics.
Countries that trade and invest together accommodate political differences. In the Persian Gulf, Iran and Iraq remain hostile to the West. But even they need oil revenues. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and other producers invest heavily in world stock markets. They don't want to damage markets or the economies of their biggest customers.