So the stage is set for a political campaign of a kind which Zimbabwe has never seen before. Much will depend on how it is conducted. Both parties have substantial real constituencies, even if that of Zanu-PF is smaller than the actual numbers which violent and unfair tactics enabled them to enlist as voters. The MDC will want the access to rural areas, to put their case before conservative country folk, which they were often de nied in the past. Zanu-PF will strive not only to retain rural allegiances, in particular by distributing at least some of the white farming land it has promised to hand out, but also to regain the urban voters it has clearly lost.
Foreign aid is critical here.
Zimbabwe was already in deep economic trouble before the rampage against white farmers and their workers began. That cost the country the proceeds of a tobacco harvest and the income that would have come in from other agricultural commodities. If agricultural income is to be stabilised, let alone fully restored, there has to be aid from outside to help the new farmers and compensate those displaced. Zanu-PF may now be ready to meet the conditions which Britain has outlined because, with the election behind it, it now needs the money more than it needs the issue. The opposition's ambivalence is already evident.