The computers that solve them are called climate models . In these simulations, the researchers gradually change the concentration of greenhouse gases, like carbon dioxide, in the simulated atmosphere. They also change the amount of sulfate aerosols, which are little bright particles in the atmosphere that are produced by the burning of fossil fuels. Zwiers says these particles may reflect some of the sunlight that reaches earth, creating a cooling effect that partially counter-balances the greenhouse gases. Zwiers says it'll be warmer over land than water and that there will be more warming in the Arctic and high latitudes because of melting sea ice.
Ice acts as an insulator between the warm ocean and the colder atmosphere.
When the ice melts into the water, the insulation is gone and heat from the ocean is lost into the air. That doesn't seem like a lot, but Zwiers says a small increase can have an impact. For Canada, that could mean events like the Red River flood of 1997, the Ice Storm of 1998 and last year's record snowfall in Toronto could happen more often. Climate models predict that sea ice, like ice bergs, will melt, which will release warm water into the atomsphere as water vapour, warming the air. While Rick Lee makes weather predictions only one year in advance, he has studied longer-term projections and says some parts of Canada will be affected more than others.