Rising prices for tea and coffee, as well as floriculture exports will benefit the trade balance. But economic recovery after years of sluggish growth will also see a marked increase in imports. Coupled with high energy prices, this will offset much of the improvement in trade. This will be difficult to achieve. Some depreciation is likely thereafter, unless the IMF does resume funding.
Government policy is seen continuing unchanged.
Politics Elections in Kenya are not scheduled until 2002. However, there is much controversy over a constitutional review process, in which civil society has demanded a greater voice. Controversy also surrounds the issue of President Moi being able to seek an additional term in office. The present constitution prevents him from doing so, but members of the ruling KANU-party who dominate parliament have tried to overturn this. This issue will probably dominate the political scene in the run-up to elections.