Enterprise restructuring and gradual price liberalisation will allow a wider portion of Cuban industry to prosper by becoming more responsive to market signals. However, ideological resistance and the government's commitment to contain unemployment will inhibit rationalisation of state companies. The opening to foreign investment will remain constricted. In the political arena, the Fidel Castro regime remains secure, with little threat from weak and isolated internal dissidents. The Elian case has fuelled support in the US for change, though a near-term lifting of sanctions is unlikely.
Economic performance is notably strong.
Difficulties encountered in securing foreign finance have forced Cuba to maintain strict financial discipline. A tight budget for 2000 leaves little room for increases in either real wages or investment. Pay raises announced in 1999 for some state workers have been introduced only gradually. However, officials are reluctant to open other sectors to foreign capital, as illustrated by a decision in April to end sales of new apartments built under joint-venture projects in Havana. Although prices in free markets will continue to fall, a gradual increase in fixed state prices will pressure the cost of living.