He applies this theory to technology trends and economic growth, including stock markets and the computer industry, among others. Modis, a management consultant and former strategist with Digital Equipment Corp., is based in Geneva, Switzerland. The interview was conducted in early 1998. By the way, I got tired of holding cash and invested in the market the Friday before Black Monday. Yet they may be the primary engines of growth in the developed countries that carry forward the period of economic escalation you predicted.
Late summer is the turning point for any company.
Based on the curves, IBM will have a life of 120-150 years, while Digital Equipment Corporation only had a life of 30 years. The turning point is when the rate of growth starts declining. How to identify that point is, of course, the trick. I think the computer industry overall is still in the early summer stage because mutations are still occurring, such as cheaper and cheaper microprocessors, and more and more miniaturization. This is feeding into the niche demand for mobile intelligent machines, such as lap tops, digital assistants, cell phones, and pagers.