This forecast has a rather modest mean national score of 0.14. The field significance is 0.082, which falls short of the traditional 0.05 rejection cutoff. Field significance reflects the probability of randomly obtaining overall map skill equal to or higher than that which actually occurred. It is evaluated using a Monte Carlo procedure in which the forecast versus observation correspondences are shuffled randomly 1000 times. The skill of the temperature forecast drops off considerably in spring in Canada.
Local skill is highest over the northern Canadian prairies, and modest along the west coast.
Table 1 shows the value of the standard deviation in mm at selected stations. The forecast has modest to moderate expected skill, with a mean national score of 0.14 and a barely passable field significance of 0.050. Local skills are highest over sections of the southern Prairies, southwestern British Columbia and the east coast. Exceptions are northern Quebec and parts of the Northwestern Territories. Many of the statistical and dynamical models are predicting further weakening of the cold conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean over the spring season and a possible return toward a weak warm ENSO episode by mid-1997.