Unless the prime minister can hold a postponed election in June, he will probably have to delay it until October, or even later. The Conservatives, given their current poll standing, are desperate for a delay, but cannot say so publicly. There are some unwelcome events between now and the autumn that might make the electorate look at Labour in a more jaundiced light. The single biggest factor is the world economy. At present, the British economy could not be in a better position.
Interest rates are likely to fall further.
Unemployment is set to dip below 1m today for the first time in 25 years. He will hold out the prospect of a return to full employment. However, there are storm clouds gathering, with US shares falling fast in the wake of corporate profit warnings, especially high technology stocks. The EU's economy has also been slowing in the past five months. Not all the factors work against postponment.