China's subsequent cancellation of a visit to Japan by its prime minister, Li Peng, should not cause too much heartburn in Tokyo. China may seek other ways to punish Japan, but is unlikely to want to have heightened tensions with Washington and Tokyo at the same time. It may also want to avoid undermining the new foreign minister, Makiko Tanaka. She is the daughter of Kakuei Tanaka, the prime minister who normalized relations with China, and is sympathetic to China. But even Miss Tanaka, who is known for plain speaking, may start to resist if China becomes too belligerent.
Japan is at the top of the list.
The Chinese military, whose influence in Beijing is growing, seems to think that the harder it presses Japan, the more likely Japan is to knuckle under. Yet much has changed concerning Japan in recent years. A turning point for Japan was North Korea's launch of a long-range missile across the Japanese islands in 1998, which means that all of Japan is now vulnerable to missile attack from North Korea, China's ally. Beijing's complaints about missile defense, which would not be nuclear, serve only to draw attention to the fact that China possesses nuclear weapons and that its missiles target both Japan and Taiwan. The new Japanese government of Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi is showing interest in asserting the right to collective defense, which would not require a constitutional amendment.