Five southern California counties, Los Angeles, Orange, San Diego, San Bernardino, and Riverside contain 55 percent of the state s total K-12 enrollment. Over the next ten years, these five counties will increase nearly 242,000 students, representing nearly 65 percent of the state s K-12 enrollment growth. Los Angeles County continues to have more total enrollment than any other county in the state. As of 1998, Orange County surpassed San Diego County to be the second largest county in total enrollment. Siskiyou, Plumas, Sierra, Trinity, and Alpine counties will experience the sharpest enrollment declines, with the group averaging a 26 percent decline over the ten year period.
Enrollment is projected using a cohort survival projection technique.
The GPR represents the proportion of students expected to progress from one grade to the next. Analyzing historical trends, knowledge of migration trends and demographic characteristics of each county, most recent population estimates, and survey results from selected school districts throughout the State, the most likely progression ratio model is chosen. Entering cohorts of kindergartens and first graders are projected using lagged births. The best fitting progression ratios are chosen independently for the projection of each grade including high school graduates. The State total by grade is the result of the summation of the projection by grade at the county level.