Say that trend continued and he won the most votes nationwide, but lost narrowly in some crucial heavyweight states. Those big chunks of electoral votes would go to Bush who, adding them to the states the GOP is expected to carry, could win the presidency on electoral votes alone. Only once before, in 1888, when Benjamin Harrison won the presidency over Grover Cleveland, did the loser win a popular majority. Rohde believes the outcome will turn on Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania because those states most closely reflected the overall national vote in past presidential elections. And they have a total of 62 total electoral votes.
Latest polls show the race up for grabs in Ohio and Michigan.
In Pennsylvania, a Sept. 1 poll gave Gore a 13-point lead, although experts believe the race is much closer. In New Jersey, Gore and Bush are in nearly a dead heat. No major polling has been done in Florida since the conventions last month, but Bush and Gore were in a dead heat in a poll conducted after the GOP convention and before the Democratic convention. In Missouri, a new poll shows Gore has erased a 15-point lead by Bush since July, and now leads 45 percent to 41 percent. Rick Hardy, a political-science instructor at the University of Missouri in Columbia, said 60 percent of Missouri voters would split their votes among Democrats and Republicans.