A lot of markets have approached, or are rapidly approaching, the saturation point. Regalia points out that the unpredictability of market forces makes it nearly impossible to plan for a recession. I would say that most businesses do not prepare for an economic downturn because it is not all that foreseeable. Still, you cannot simply shrug off the damage that a downturn can cause. Harvard's Donelan says both HMOs and medical groups have too much at stake.
Health organizations are so reliant on other industries.
Kerns, the research analyst, points out that, come the next recession, employers are going to want premiums slashed. About all they can do is offer lower levels of benefits. She notes that HMOs have not had great returns from premiums during the last five years. Premiums rose slightly the next two years, but enrollment increases have not been as great as those during late 1980s and early '90s. Berger, of William M. Mercer, also thinks that the next economic downturn could hurt the industry.