In marketing and evaluating their own performance, fund managers and sponsors have a tendency to focus on successful funds and periods of outperformance, while ignoring or underemphasizing previously unsuccessful funds and periods of underperformance. As a result, many performance claims are subject to survivorship bias . For this and other reasons, it is prudent and often illuminating to independently evaluate performance or seek unbiased interpretations of performance. It is important to note that The Motley Fool has been in existence for approximately five years and the longest track record for any of the Motley Fool real-money portfolios is less than five years. Experts generally agree that longer track records are required to determine whether outperformance or underperformance can be attributed to skill as opposed to luck.
Luck counts much more than skill in the short run.
The following tables are not complete and should not be considered comprehensive. However, the following tables contain relevant information that investors can consider in evaluating the performance of Motley Fool portfolios through 1998. See The Motley Fool web site for current information on the current portfolios. All of the following information about the portfolios originates from information found in America Online Forums or web sites maintained by The Motley Fool or from information provided by Motley Fool staff. In the fourth quarter of 1998 the Motley Fool renamed these two portfolios.