After that paragraph, I should probably stop. Anything else written here will have a cloud hanging over it, but there are a few topics for which we should have clearer pictures and less random stories. Bonds are one. The gains in the bond market have come only in one place. Treasuries have rallied because the market thinks the pressure from the Fed is off for the foreseeable future.
Inflation is under control and the signs of a modest slowdown in the economy are building.
Real rates should decline and they have. Further gains in our fixed income portfolios will likely come from shrinking credit spreads. If we have learned anything else this summer it should be that currencies in the short run don't follow the Econ 101 text books. The U.S. personal savings rate is essentially zero. It should also be noted that the composition of wealth has changed.