Given the appreciation of the currency of late, taking rates lower shouldn't be much trouble. This is our first evidence that the boom in the housing market is beginning to spill over into durables goods demand. Bad weather in the northeast during the latest weekend hurt results in that region while the best sales were recorded in the west and southeast. We look for mixed readings on the Mitsubishi and JRB indexes. Note that this is the same theme we mentioned a week ago and was confirmed in the JRB written report.
Export prices look to have been flat.
Such a delay in the release of MTS for the final month of the fiscal year is quite typical. However, with the deficit for FY 1996 likely to be the lowest in 15 years, the Administration is sure to try to get the official figures out as soon as possible and trumpet the news in the days leading up to the election. One of the key elements of our above-consensus growth forecast is an optimistic assessment of US export prospects. In our view, while it's hard to be encouraged about the recent softening in export demand, we believe that it's very much a temporary development. That's particularly true when the capital spending dynamics to export growth are examined in greater detail.