If he succeeds, he would replace the current president, Salmin Amour, who was prevented constitutionally from running for a third term. Karume is presented to the international community as the bridge builder who could work on the necessary reconciliation within Zanzibari society. But his campaign is being organised by Ambassador Hassan Diria, a former minister of foreign affairs and a known hard-liner. Karume could be left with limited room for reforms after the poll. CCM does not seem to be ready to give up Zanzibar to the opposition.
Analysts say the outcome of the elections therefore seems almost a foregone conclusion.
Following the electoral defeat in 1995, CUF found it difficult to control its supporters. Three years ago 18 CUF members were arrested on charges of treason, and despite continued protests from human rights groups and the international community, their trial has failed to proceed. Mediation by the Commonwealth failed to get CCM to agree to reforms. A further disputed election could lead to the radicalisation of the opposition. The reaction of the donor community is difficult to predict.