A preliminary review of April 1996 data indicates some improvement can be expected. Compared to April 1995, both orders and shipments should be up about eight percent. This will begin to move the industry back toward its expected track of four percent growth for the year. Overall, the economy is expected to grow by 2.5 percent to three percent for the year, based on several factors. Consumer attitudes, according to the organization's conference board, are at their highest level in six years.
Inflation is under control at both the consumer and producer levels.
And interest rates are beginning to decline again. This equates to real growth of about one percent. It anticipates growth of five to 5.5 percent in 1997 and 1998, with inflation of about three to 3.5 percent, leaving real growth of about two percent for both 1997 and 1998.