India also is a big, perennial disappointment. It has a huge population and very large infrastructure needs, but a mind-numbing bureaucracy makes progress toward that end almost impossible. And so the people continue to suffer. The same can be said of Russia and large parts of Africa, which suffer from even more severe kinds of political and social problems. A year or a decade likely is not going to be nearly enough to overcome those hurdles.
Evidence indicates that they are beginning to careen out of control.
Corruption, violence and civil war are not conducive to investments in plants, infrastructure and housing. In the case of Russia, the social underpinnings for private investment are not there and the currency has no support at home or abroad. In parts of Africa, unrestrained tribalism has triggered a new export market in refugees. There are some bright lights, however. In Mexico, national elections have produced a surprising presidential victor in Vicente Fox, who is promising major economic and social reform.