But a detailed examination of those advantages suggests that they too have their limits. Ignoring third-party votes for the moment, and assuming that undecided voters break along the same lines as those who had already decided in that survey, Gore would win the Empire State with 57 percent to Bush's 43 percent. The total presidential vote in New York in 1996 was just under 7 million, while four years earlier it barely exceeded 6.3 million. That would be a large but not unreasonable margin by recent historical standards. Dukakis in 1988 and Jimmy Carter in 1976 each carried the state by less than 300,000 votes over their Republican opponents, while Clinton beat then-President George Bush by almost 1.1 million votes in 1992 and Bob Dole by 1.8 million four years later.
History suggests it can be done.
D'Amato drew 820,000 more votes than Bush, the incumbent president, while Democrat Bob Abrams drew close to 360,000 votes fewer than Bill Clinton in the state. Schumer drew over 980,000 more votes than Vallone. Clearly, the Clinton-Lazio race should be close. But at this point, Lazio seems to have a greater upside potential than Clinton. New York state Democrats will have to take steps to change that.