The trick is to fill the bag of experience before you empty the bag of luck. Keep looking around. There's always something you've missed. If all you can see out of the windscreen is ground that's going round and round and all you can hear is commotion coming from the passenger compartment, things are not at all as they should be. In the ongoing battle between objects made of aluminum going hundreds of miles per hour and the ground going zero miles per hour, the ground has yet to lose.
Good judgment comes from experience.
Unfortunately, experience usually comes from bad judgment. It's always a good idea to keep the pointy end going forward as much as possible. There are old pilots and there are bold pilots. There are, however, no old, bold pilots. Remember, gravity is not just a good idea.