He can fix all maladies with interest rate cutting aspirin. The aspirin cure is on the way. When I see such comfort, I feel a need to check the less conventional sources. One of the more carefully laid out arguments pointing to recession comes from economist A. Gary Shilling. Mr. Shilling pays attention to things glossed over by those paid to be optimistic.
Consumer spending tends to rise with consumer wealth, aiding spending.
Now it is running in reverse. More important, some were hit much harder than others. Those who borrowed to buy stocks, for instance, have seen their assets plummet while their debt remained the same. Significantly, margin debt has soared in recent years, reaching 3.5 percent of personal income last autumn. As Dallas bear David Tice likes to say, Debt is forever.