First, it makes a big difference if both are democratic. And in this period, there were no wars between full democracies. Economics also made a great difference. This was an even greater disincentive than simply being wealthy, and the reasons are pretty clear. 1 One additional influence is worth noting.
International organizations reduce conflict in many ways.
These resultsrequire further analysis, but they appear to compare favorably with what we know, for instance, about which influences produce many cancers or heart disease. Further analysis also encourages me to believe that these relations are in fact causal. For example, countries are unlikely to fight because they trade, and not just vice-versa, and countries do not join international organizations only with other countries that are already their close friends. Forsberg is probably right that the prospects for major conventional war in the next decade or so are small. It would be especially dangerous if, as Forsberg warns, China continues to import high-level military technology from Russia and even forms an alliance with Russia.