He cites that up until 1800 the general public had little reason to be excited by technological progress. It was science fiction writers, such as Jules Verne and H. G. Wells, that excited the public to the idea of predicting future technologies. The author describes a dozen analytical tools for technology forecasting, such as S-curve, Delphi method, and Trend Analysis. Interestingly the world's largest forecaster, the Japanese government, has about the same rate of failure. However, there is one glorious ray of hope for inventors.
Experts are often wrong.
A noted physicist, just seven years prior to the Wright brothers successful flight, expressed his opinion that only the balloon could be used for manned flight. We think in terms of what already exists and think developments are only extensions of existing devices rather that the creation of a whole new field. For example, even Marconi visualized his radio as being mainly useful in areas where telephone wires could not be put up. The author writes that many great innovations result from combining different technologies. This also complicates any efforts to predict.