Population Reference Bureau Population Bulletin Vol. Fertility Transition Fertility will have the greatest impact on Africa's future population size.
Birth rates are almost certain to decline and have already begun to fall in many areas.
7 Demographers tend to agree that fertility will eventually fall, but there is less consensus about the timetable for the decline, the causes of Africa's current high fertility, or which policies or programs would bring birth rates down fastest. Around 1960, the TFR was about 6.0 children per woman in Latin America, South Asia, and East Asia. Sub-Saharan Africa was slightly higher, at nearly 6.7 children per woman. By the mid-1990s, fertility had dropped to 3.0 in Latin America, to 3.8 in South Asia, and to 2.2 in East Asia. At the same time, contraceptive use surged in these same three regions.