Nonetheless, the estimates presented of consumer spending are the only monthly series available, and the trend over the longer term is not inconsistent with broader figures. Personal consumption expenditures have risen for three straight months since February's low. However, the trend line since 1997 does not appear to have turned up, although monthly variability in the data may disguise a shift until it is well underway. The fact that employment continues to fall is not a good omen for disposable income, which will remain weak until wages and salaries start to increase faster than jobs disappear. To sum up, corporate confidence, although still weak, has been increasing for two or even three quarters, GDP was up sharply in the January-March period, production is 1 percent to 2 percent above its recent floor, consumption has risen for three months and disposable income for two, albeit less strongly.
Employment continues to fall.
Short-term economic analysis has about the same predictive power as reading tea leaves. Whether it can get on the path of sustainable growth following the period of government-administered resuscitation is the unanswerable question right now.