The fourth quarter GDP figures suggest an economy growing at the slowest rate in five years. Some commentators have shot right past that to suggest we are already in a recession and the data just have not caught up to the facts. That's quite a mood shift from last spring. Not surprisingly, market participants have stopped talking about sure things. Instead they are talking about how deep the gulch is we need to cross before we retake the high ground on the other side.
Investors are right to be cautious.
But I am suspicious that there may be more smoke than fire in the economy today. Looking at the weather, it has been a really ugly winter everywhere I've been this year. It always has in the past. I'm not sure about global warming, but I do believe that spring is around the corner. Both statistics are just off levels that were described as dangerously overheated a few weeks ago.