This scenario is unlikely to occur. Bust economic hard times result in government intervention to control costs by rationing treatment and by not introducing expensive new drugs or surgical procedures. The third wave Assumes that a healthy lifestyle becomes a therapy in its own right and that an information revolution permits customised therapy from a range of providers. The world moves from materialistic values towards quality of life concerns. Information systems are extended to allow outcomes to be monitored so that only effective treatments are used.
Health care becomes more frugal with an emphasis on prevention, self-care and holistic therapies.
This cannot be sustained and will inevitably lead to the bust of scenario two. We may be closer than we think to this. Rationing of treatment is already occurring by stealth in many countries and every year more people are unable to gain access to the treatment they require. The first 'health monitoring' programs in which clients enter their personal information and are given advice on maximising health are just beginning to appear. They are on the internet, some are presented by health insurance companies and they are not only information-rich but also have the skills to appraise and act on the information.