As to the latter, it seems unlikely that too many ordinary voters of Suffolk County will harbor a grudge against him for switching. In the first place, as a Republican, he has been popular, winning 64 percent of the vote in 1998. His is a fairly Republican district, true, but people there aren't exactly strangers to voting for Democrats. Mr. Forbes clearly figures he has his finger on the district's pulse. And it is, after all, a tough order of business to defeat an incumbent.
Elections usually turn on open seats.
It would probably take a huge GOP tide to swamp Mr. Forbes. He will also surely have an ample war chest. And of course Mr. Gephardt would have promised him that the organized party will do everything possible to forestall a Democratic primary challenge. Such a challenge is probably the biggest threat Mr. Forbes faces. Official Republican sentiment, as well as gobs of GOP money, opposed the primary challenges to Mr. Laughlin mounted by Ron Paul and another contender.