Our margins of error apply to forecasting accuracy for the actual election, and reflect not only sampling errors, but also errors resulting from respondents changing their minds, reporting untruthfully, or choosing not to vote. 358 Note that our base forecasts predict 341 Electoral Votes for Clinton and 197 for Dole, with the Clinton advantage increasing to 370 to 168 if one includes a Southern Democrat advantage. By this method we forecast 328.26 electoral votes for Clinton and 209.74 electoral votes for Dole. The totals change to 366.76 for Clinton and 171.24 for Dole when the Southern Democrat advantage is added. Our analysis predicts a Clinton victory by any method, but still leaves the possibility that the race could be close.
History suggests that early leads, especially Democratic ones, tend to diminish.
This maintains consistency with practice in the early years of the sample emplyed in our historical analysis of elections.