The euro economy is likely to react to price signals far more efficiently than nationally based economies. As one of the most independent central banks in the world, the ECB may seek to establish credibility early on. Since successful monetary policy is not a precise science, but a mixture of economic analysis, judgement and a dose of good luck, the ECB will probably choose to err on the side of caution. This in turn implies that real interest rates will be high initially and may fall only in the long-run. Yet it is conceivable that the ECB may look for inspiration elsewhere, for example the Federal Reserve, probably the world's most successful central bank in the 1990s.
Few revolutions succeed, and even fewer last.
But given the prevailing mindset among EU central bankers, one suspects that this particular revolution is not quite finished yet. This outcome is probably the least certain of all. There will be increased competition, both from Emu directly and from the single market. The result could be a series of mutually-reinforcing virtuous mechanisms. The negative growth implications in the short term would stem directly from an over tight monetary policy.