Consequently, this table provides critical information for decision making. A range of probabilities is given because forecast errors differ by location. In addition, the probabilities can exceed the maximums listed in the table if the hurricane center is actually forecast to be at the location at an earlier time period. The average errors for intensity are shown below. Although the average intensity errors are fairly small, they can be much larger in certain cases.
Hurricane specialists have an especially difficult time forecasting rapidly intensifying storms.
The NHC provides graphs and tables to show intensity probabilities based on the current intensity forecast and the past error history. Forecasting changes in the size of a hurricane is extremely difficult due to the complex interactions between the environment and the storm. Additionally, observations that could help accurately define the initial size of the entire circulation are very sparse over the ocean where the storm spends most of its life.