Singapore Ltd. The slowdown in the Asean Four will hurt their major trading partners. Singapore, Asean's transport and services hub, will lose one percentage point or so of output growth, economists say. Japan also will take a hit. Mr. Mussa at the IMF says the troubles in Asean will cost Japan 0.5 to 0.75 percentage point of GDP growth. The effects of Asean's slowdown on China, Hong Kong, Korea and Taiwan will be less dramatic, though tourist arrivals from Asean may drop and appliance exports to Southeast Asia from Korea, for example, could shrink.
Exports are the only sector showing any signs of life in Japan's stalled economy.
South Korea is suffering on many fronts. Most economists predict growth will slow moderately in 1998, though those forecasts assume that the country will avoid a Thai-style banking and currency crisis. In India, whether growth slows or accelerates depends on the government, economists say. There aren't any particular worries except the outlook for India's ability to continue breaking down barriers to competition. If those efforts stall, so will its economy.