Were these developments actually to transpire, worldwide carbon emissions in 2015 would be 50 percent higher than the current level. Between 1993 and 2015 energy consumption is expected to increase by 193 quadrillion Btu, amount nearly equal to the world's total energy consumption in 1970. All forms of energy supply except nuclear power are expected to grow over the projection period. By 2015 oil use will total about 99 million barrels per day, up more than 32 million barrels per day relative to 1993. In aggregate, fossil fuel use is expected to grow at the same rate as world energy use over the next 20 years, with natural gas gaining share relative to oil and coal.
Economic growth is the main factor driving growth in energy demand.
Between 1970 and 1993 energy consumption grew by 2.3 percent per year, while income rose at an annual rate of 2.8 percent. The IEO96 projections assume that world economic growth will average about 3.0 percent per year, but that growth in energy use will slow to 2 percent. Population is also expected to grow substantially over the forecast period, but at less than one-half the rate of income growth. The slow growth in population relative to growth in GDP permits substantial improvements in per capita income over the projection period. Both the level and composition of energy demand are affected by gains in per capita income.