It is not impossible, even yet, that a deal could be put together which would link the issues of policing, decommissioning and demilitarisation. Such a deal, if it could be struck, would then lead to the full restoration of the North-South links, effectively put on ice by the First Minister, Mr David Trimble. In the absence of such a deal in the very near future, the Agreement may go into review and the institutions may be suspended in whole or in part. It could be summer before further progress is possible. There appears to be no serious threat to the IRA ceasefire.
Loyalists continue their low-level, sectarian attacks.
But apart from the possibility of some act of terrorism from republican dissidents there is no likelihood of large-scale violence in the immediate future. By the time political normality is restored in the aftermath of a UK election, the marching season will be coming up. The mould of the new police service in the North will have been cast. And if the policing reforms founder that object will never be fully realised. The SDLP makes noises which suggest that it would wish to endorse the new police structures but it appears to lack the conviction to make the final leap.