As a result, the very largest and richest states, known as great powers, have been the primary forces shaping recent history. From time to time, however, a great power has behaved in completely unexpected ways, generally because its population has been swept by an inspiring ideology or directed by an extraordinary leaders. France under Napoleon or Germany under Hitler present examples. Such occurrences are beyond anyone's ability to predict, but in the next several decades, if a charismatic genius were to gain control over one of the great powers while its population was mobilized by some overpowering idea, the consequences for the world either could be catastrophic or marvelous. Such events are rare, but in considering the range of likely possibilities for the great powers outlined below, such an unlikely eventuality should not be dismissed.
History is filled with surprises.