You're still here, which confirms your belief. You think your professor is friendly so you go to her office hours. Gilovich talks about the fact that some people believe that infertile couples who adopt a child are subsequently more likely to conceive. Suppose a researcher came up with a new way to mathematically define the hot hand and found that based on that definition, basketball players sometimes get hot. There are 4 cards on a table.
Every card has a clinical diagnosis on one side and a drawing of a face on the other.
There is a tennis tournament with 1000 people entered. If a person loses one match, she is eliminated. You remember the times you dream about someone and see them the next day so you conclude there is a correlation. You think airplanes are dangerous so you never fly. You're still here, which confirms your belief.