Remember, you're always a student in a balloon. Whenever you're in a balloon there are a minimum of 25 people watching you at all times. A terminal forecast is a horoscope with numbers. Takeoffs are optional. Landings are mandatory.
Good judgment comes from experience.
Experience comes from bad judgment. Learn from the mistakes of others. You won't live long enough to make them all yourself. If you fail to provide a margin for error, you've made the error for which you have no margin. One who balloons, silly.