The Hondo, Daily and Weekly upthrusts through the upper boundary of their triangles eight weeks ago have provided the recent bullish impetus. As pointed out, bonds will subsequently suffer by the very act of the FF's ease. Because that milestone of monetary stimulation precludes an environment that would have been friendlier to bonds had the ease not occurred. Even bond friendly, bearish economic calendar news will be viewed negatively, under the soritic logic that the more negative the headline, the greater will be the Fed's reaction in aggressive FF's cutting, the more potentially inflationary. The March 20th .50 bps cut radically altered that perception to the view that the Fed was then well ahead of the curve, tanking bonds mercilessly.
Exit strategies are imperative for institutional types on ANY strength.
Note, however, that the portentous Broadening Formation, now cobbling its 4th higher peak after making 3 lower lows, is still technically active. This traditional topping formation, given its precedence in bear markets, could stop the Weekly upcycle dead in its tracks. Finally, note that the Daily is now irrefragably overbought. But the bull case was rekindled with the Daily's upside breakout from its ascending triangle. However, such equivocation about the crossline is not unusual at critical turning points.