It is not surprising that moving from output measures to outcome measures has proven to be a difficult step to take within the organizational culture of government. Public sector work by its nature leads ultimately to societal outcomes, and many societal outcomes are driven by an almost unlimited range of forces outside the control of a program or agency. Regulatory and economic development programs classically confront the problem of external influences, but external factors complicate almost all the programs in government. Environmental initiatives dealing with complex ecosystems face great uncertainty in their outcomes. A vigorous economy spurs consumption and travel, increasing pollution and traffic fatalities while frustrating environmental and safety programs.
External forces affect almost every outcome measure in some way.
Program managers are often reluctant to deal with outcome measures that are outside their immediate control. Yet societal outcomes are the reason why government is charged with resources and authority. If vehicle and passenger-miles traveled rise with the economy, then the public will expect its government to initiate new ways to control the unintended results. Therefore, Federal mangers must come to grips in dealing with outcome measures, even though these measures may be influenced by external forces. What is needed is a better understanding of how external forces impact program outcomes, and how some of the external influences can be channeled constructively to produce desired program outxcomes.