The respected Bishop of Dili, Carlos Belo, who was co-winner with Mr Ramos Horta of the 1996 Nobel Prize, is confident the parties have the wisdom not to repeat past mistakes. They are more moderate and the people also know already who they are. Mr Ramos Horta, active for Fretilin during the civil war, resigned from the party in 1989, following the example of Mr Gusmao. He predicts the old party lines will remain in a boisterous, although tolerant, political milieu. I trust they can manage those agendas.
Foreign analysts say no party is likely to win an outright majority.
Despite Fretilin's earlier confidence, it will face strong opposition from a new social democrat party being formed by the popular ex-governor Mario Carrascalao. Even Apodeti, which campaigned for integration with Indonesia, is expected to contest elections on a new platform. No one can be sure that this renewed political competition among a Dili-based elite won't degenerate into civil strife. But the political leaders most of whom were around in 1975 aren't likely to be indulged by the population or the international community if jousting between the parties comes at the expense of national development. In the past year of UN rule, there has been a gradual awakening to the reality of East Timor's abject poverty.