The predicted IndoPacific SSTA patterns based on the JJA 2000 initial condition for the following SON, DJF, MAM and JJA are shown in Fig. Current forecasts call for a continuation of cold SST anomalies until well into next year. Combined with the increase in equatorial heat content over the last 1-2 years, such forcing could initiate a further eastward shift of positive SSTA, possibly by spring of 2001. Forecast skill is discussed in the March 1997 issue of this Bulletin .
Current forecasts call for cool anomalies in the tropical Atlantic.
However, recent forecasts have been too cold by about 0.2C at a lead time of six months. Random forcing and forecasting using Principal Oscillation Pattern analysis. The optimal growth of tropical sea surface temperature anomalies. Prediction of tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures using Linear Inverse Modeling. That is, about one in three predictions could be expected to lie outside this interval even with a perfect model.