Timely seeding, adequate moisture, with the exception of southern Alberta, and a typical fall resulted in normal yields with average dockage. Despite a strong start, the pace of producer marketings declined post-harvest due to the low prices and the high premiums for deferred delivery, which rewarded producers for storing their crop. Canadian crushing of canola is forecast to remain similar to last year at 3 Mt, despite ample supplies of canola, as an oversupply of soy and palm oil lowers prices for all vegetable oils and continues to pressure cash crush margins. The pace of crush during the second half of 2000-2001 is expected to be lower than the first half because of weak vegetable oil prices caused by abundant supplies. The production of canola oil is forecast to increase by about 60,000 t to 1.30 Mt. Domestic consumption of canola oil is expected to increase to 0.4 Mt, versus the 0.35 Mt estimated for 1999-2000.
Exports represent the balance of domestic production with little change in carry-out stocks.
However, the domestic consumption of canola meal is projected to decline slightly, to 0.7 Mt, due to increased competition from soymeal. Exports Canada is expected to export a record 4.4 Mt of canola in 2000-2001. In the Asian market, competition from the EU and Australia has decreased. Canola oil exports are forecast to decrease marginally with lower shipments to the U.S., Japan, and China partly offset by an increase to South Korea and Hong Kong. Carry-out stocks are projected to decrease.