Good demand for cereals coupled with adequate moisture supplies are expected to lead to an increase in the area of spring cereals, notably in the North Caucasus and Volga regions. The aggregate area to be sown to grains is officially estimated to reach up to 48.6 million hectares, up to 3 million hectares more than in the past year. Given normal conditions until the harvest, the 2001 grain harvest could exceed last year s 71 million tonnes, including 38 million tonnes of wheat and 31 million tonnes of coarse grains. FAO s production estimates are about 10 percent higher than the official estimates, in view of systematic underestimation. Cereal imports up to December amount to 1.6 million tonnes while exports total nearly 1 million tonnes.
Food insecurity is primarily a problem of access rather than availability.
Income distribution is very uneven. Specific causes of poverty include arrears in the payment of pensions, salaries and wages. In Chechnya, the outlook for the 2001 grain harvest remains bleak due to lack of financial resources and fuel. The 2000 agricultural production was greatly compromised by the security situation as well as the shortages of machinery, fuel and inputs. The conflict in Chechnya continues to cause severe hardship for the local and displaced population within the country and in surrounding areas.