Three tropical storms and one hurricane are expected to strike. The forecast was prepared using advanced statistical methods and historical climate data back to 1950. The team's predictors comprise a mix of current climate parameters and model predictions of climate parameters at the time of the 2000 hurricane season. The main factors in the forecast are the summer 2000 predictions for slightly cooler than average sea surface temperatures in the tropical north Atlantic and a weak positive ENSO phase. This is our first attempt to take leading-edge science and tailor it to meet our competitive needs.
Hurricanes rank above earthquakes and floods as the United States' costliest natural disaster.
To be of value to insurers, forecasts must be received well before the hurricane season. Hurricanes also occur in other ocean basins where they are called typhoons or cyclones.