It lights up. But you decide to test it. You take your presumed broken bulb and put it in another socket. It also lights up. The old light bulb has been removed from its original condition.
Evolutionary biology is a science of high versus low probabilities.
One cannot go back and see the first amphibian coming out of the water, but the probability is excedingly high that its ancestor was a fish, not a termite, and not the Will of God. For an argument to function in science, it must be specific for that question. Perhaps going to get the new light bulb was just the excuse you needed to visit that cute neighbor, and now the two of you are married. But it's not a scientific explanation.