The proportion of respondents reporting higher production rose to 39.8 percent from 33.6 percent. The proportion indicating a decline actually edged up marginally as the share indicating no change in production declined to 36.8 percent from 44.3 percent in September. Production currently may be more concentrated on immediate shipments as the shipments index jumped to 23.9 in October from 16.5 in September. October's figure was the highest since March 1999. Yet, current activity inventory indexes also rebounded after a very weak September, returning to more frequently observed values.
Manufacturers appear to be attempting to keep inventories from declining further.
Outlook indexes were flat or slipped incrementally in October. The outlook index for production nudged down to 23.9 in October from 25.3 in September. Outlook production indexes for the past three months have been moderately lower than during the first half of 1999. For October, slippage also was seen in outlook indicators for shipments, new orders, backlogs, materials inventories, finished goods inventories, the average workweek, capital expenditures, new orders for exports and supplier delivery time. The outlook index for the number of employees rose slightly, however, suggesting a mild vote of confidence by manufacturers for orders and production next year.