An increase in convection along the ITCZ from its model climatological average is suggested. Validation of large-scale precipitation fields in general circulation models. Global Precipitation and Climate Change, M. Desbois and F. Desalmand, Eds., NATO ASI Series, Vol. Figure 1 . Correlations for simulations over July to September 1979-1993 between ensemble mean rainfall and the Hulme gridded rainfall set over 10 x 15 degree blocks.
Bars indicate inflated range of ensembles and the median.
Figure 3 . Figure 4 . Non-inflated ensemble mean precipitation forecast anomalies for July to September 1998. Negative contours dashed.