Various statistical models of an EOC prediction formula were investigated. After two years of research and analyses, the newly approved EOC prediction formulas met these criteria. Each expected score is based on the proficiency of the students when they were in previous grades or courses. In this case, the group of students must have scores on EOG Math from grade 8. I may not have a grade 8 EOG score in math, for a number of reasons.
Enrollment can change daily due to the addition of new students, transfers, and withdrawals.
Let s say the average EOG Math score in grade 8 for this group was 178. This sum reflects full precision carried throughout each computation, and does not reflect the sum of the rounded numbers shown in this example. Weighting of the ABCs growth gain composites was adopted to deal with such inconsistencies. Gain occurs when the actual EOC average score for a matched group of students in a school is equal to or greater than the predicted EOC target score, or ABCs goal for the school. The gain is computed much like growth is computed with the EOG tests.