A direct conflict between Israel and the Palestinian Authority, however, raises the potential prospect of losing the Authority itself, the quasi-state which seemed on the verge of becoming a formally recognized state. It is far easier for an occupying army to defeat a state with structured institutions than a broad-based uprising. Certainly the Palestinian Authority does not want to see a conflict which extinguishes itself. But at the same time, it cannot simply do what Israel would have it do and crack down hard on its own population, in part because its own security forces are participating in the troubles and might resist an order to suppress the demonstrations. As for winners and losers so far, that is also difficult to assess at this stage, and this issue is dealt with to some extent in the Dossier as well.
Losers are easier to identify.
Besides the victims of the violence, the peace process receives a setback, and hardliners in Israel and the Palestinian Authority both find their hands strengthened. One loser may be Ariel Sharon. His role in provoking the outbreak will be applauded by his longtime supporters, but the action reinforces the deep suspicion of Sharon among the broader Israeli public. But it was already increasingly unlikely that Sharon will lead Likud in the next elections. The decision not to prosecute Binyamin Netanyahu, and Netanyahu s improvement in the polls in recent months, position him for a challenge to retake the Likud leadership prior to new elections which seem increasingly likely sometime in the first part of 2001.