The same process works when economists are either called to testify or their works are accepted in more popular journals. Mr. Aron Zitner does cover gloomier stories, but in the last two years these have been mostly about Asia. This is only a long progression of increasingly risky lending behavior. So, for me to be convinced, Karl, you have to show to me where debt is being paid off as the result of increased growth and where indebtness is not still increasing due to lending practices, mergers, and other debt-ridden behaviors. I contend that the economic growth we witness is mostly paid for out of the increase in the debt.
Incomes are essentially stagnant.
And debt driven consumption will not produce economic growth that can pay off that very debt. I am glad you have a copy of Dalio's article. My father showed it to me in 1992. There is certainly a madness in our midst. As best economists can tell, what precipitates an economic catastrophe is debt.