Many have asked why I am so certain of recession this year.
Economic forecasting is always a dodgy business.
Now all I am doing is pointing out that Austrian economics explains that the emergence of certain economic phenomena are always symptoms of a looming recession. It does not give a date for the recession nor does it try to quantify its depth or length, rightly stressing that such quantitative ambitions are beyond the scope to economics. Its approach to predicting trends is modest in content and qualitative by nature. That is not to say rough rules of thumb have not emerged, only that they should not be taken as rigid economic laws. In December 1928 the Fed froze the money supply, by July falling output had signalled the beginning of a depression even though the stock market continued to boom until October when it finally crashed.