361 Note that our base forecasts predict 341 Electoral Votes for Clinton and 197 for Dole, with the Clinton advantage increasing to 361 to 177 if one includes a Southern Democrat advantage. These results are quite similar to those obtained last week. By this method we forecast 331.5 electoral votes for Clinton and 206.5 electoral votes for Dole. The totals change to 367.59 for Clinton and 170.41 for Dole when the Southern Democrat advantage is added. Our analysis predicts a Clinton victory by any method, but still leaves the possibility that the race could be close.
History suggests that early leads, especially Democratic ones, tend to diminish.
This maintains consistency with practice in the early years of the sample emplyed in our historical analysis of elections.