That is clear. Thus, the theory has it, do not expect an African, or a Latin American, or an Asian, or a North American. It leads to the election of another Italian pope, a pope to take the church into the 21st century, but not necessarily determine the church's course in the century. That will be left to pope on the other end of the transition period. If so, the list of papabile, or papal contenders, comes from a list of about ten men with five or so, some relative unknowns, possessing what might be considered significant leadership qualities.
Conservatives have, by wide margin, the votes to choose the next pope.
There appears to be a consensus among many in the church hierarchy that local archbishops have been stripped of rightful authority by a heavy-handed Roman curia. For the same reason do not expect the next pope to emerge out of the Roman Curia. While undeniably powerful and certain to play critical roles in the decision process, curial members do not have the votes alone to elect one from their own ranks. Left on the list are four possible papal contenders. Biffi, archbishop of Bologna, is the most conservative of the lot.