More countries are acquiring ballistic missiles with ranges up to 1,000 km, and more importantly, with ranges between 1,000 km and 3,000 km. It is a reality that has to be dealt with now. With a range of about 1,300 km, the Shahab 3 significantly alters the military equation in the Middle East by giving Tehran the capability to strike targets in Israel, Saudi Arabia, and most of Turkey. The Pakistani Ghauri, also tested this year, allows targeting of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait , and the Gulf. Beyond North Korea, we judge it unlikely that countries, other than Russia and China, will develop, produce and deloy an ICBM capable of reaching the United States any time in the next decade.
Foreign assistance is fundamental to the growing theater missile threat.
Moreover, countries are seeking the capability to build these missiles independently of foreign suppliers. The growth in the sharing of technology among the aspiring missile powers is also of concern. While we project that Russia's strategic forces will shrink, they continue to be modernized and will remain formidable. Most of these are targeted against the United States, and modernization efforts will likely increase the number of Chinese warheads aimed at the United States. Our report further noted that we judge that an unauthorized or accidental launch of a Russian or Chinese strategic missile is highly unlikely, as long as current security procedures and systems are in place.