International J. of Climatology Vol. Xie, P. and Arkin, P.A., 1997. Figure 1 . Correlations for simulations over October to December 1979-1993 between ensemble mean rainfall and the Hulme gridded rainfall set over 10 x 15 degree blocks. Figure 2a , 2b , 2c .
Bars indicate inflated range of ensembles and the median.
The forecasts for 1997 and 1998 and observation for 1997 are also indicated. Figure 3 . Negative contours dashed. Figure 4 .