The nation's top hurricane forecaster predicts increased storm activity over the next 15 to 20 years, with damage five to 10 times worse than ever before in the Gulf and Atlantic Coast states. The next two decades or so should resemble a stretch seen from the late 1920s through the 1940s, Bill Gray said yesterday at the National Hurricane Conference, a gathering of experts from around the country and beyond. The big difference is that many more people now live in harm's way, he noted. Gray, a professor of meteorology at Colorado State University, charts hurricane activity in cycles, influenced by the ocean's salt content, currents and water temperature. He said the busy period ahead will be caused by a cyclical rise in salt content.
Higher salinity changes the ocean currents, which, in turn, makes water temperatures rise.
Hurricanes draw their strength from warm water. The population in the Gulf and Atlantic Coast states from Texas to Virginia rose from a little more than 24 million in 1930 to about 64 million in 1990, with some of the heaviest development taking place between 1970 and 1990, a period of relatively low hurricane activity. In 1999, Gray predicted 14 named storms, nine hurricanes and four major hurricanes. As it turned out, there were 12 named storms and eight hurricanes, five of them major. For 2000, Gray has predicted 11 named storms and seven hurricanes, three of them major, meaning sustained winds of 110 mph.