The governor lost because GOP-identifiers represented only 47 percent of the vote and Democrats and independents formed an unprecedented 53 percent. Republican regulars expect that, as the race moves to Republican-only primaries and states where independents also may vote in a Democratic primary, Bush's advantage among GOP loyalists will defeat McCain. It may happen. In fact, the logical model for the rest of the race leads to that conclusion. After all, the Gallup poll shows Bush leading McCain among GOP voters nationwide by 58 to 31 percent and the Pew poll shows him up 62 to 30 percent.
Majorities usually rule, especially when big.
In trying to convince fellow Republicans to come around, McCain does have polls on his side showing he would be far better able than Bush to beat Vice President Al Gore in November. The Pew poll shows McCain beating Gore 49 to 41 percent, while Bush is ahead by only 1 point. Gallup shows an even larger difference - McCain beating Gore by 59 to 35 percent, while Bush is up by just 5 percent over Gore. McCain has enough money to get his message through in the Feb. 29 and March 7 primaries. And he hopes that Ronald Reagan's former White House chief of staff, Ken Duberstein, will be able to win an endorsement from former first lady Nancy Reagan.