The climatological probability of each category is 0.333. For instance a departure of 0.05 from the climatological probability indicates probabilities of 0.38 and 0.28 for above and below normal rainfall, respectively. For the sake of simplicity, the probability for the normal category remains at 0.33. East African rainfall. 1998 calls for slightly higher than climatological probabilities for below normal rainfall along the coast from Tanzania northward to Somalia, and across Kenya and southern Sudan.
Climatology is indicated elsewhere.
F igure 1 .