Based on the latest national poll update, historical voting patterns, and recent economic performance, we now predict a Bush victory. Our forecast is based on the Gallup Poll, which is currently showing a considerably larger Bush margin of victory than other polls. Our model is based on a regression of state level vote outcomes on 2nd quarter GDP growth, the Democratic vote share in the current national Gallup poll, and the state Democratic vote share in the 1996 presidential election.
Coefficients vary across all variables depending on the poll date.
No 151 Bush wins with 387 electoral votes.