The statistics are used by the Department's meteorologists to evaluate the forecasts and to identify any problems or downward performance trends. These statistics have been computed for the previous two years and for the current year. Ozone forecasts are produced daily from May through September, and each forecast includes both a numeric forecast of the predicted ozone concentration and a color code forecast . The second table describes some verification statistics for our color code forecasts. Summarizes the overall quality of the forecasts.
Lower numbers are best.
It indicates, on average, if the forecasts are under predicted or over predicted. Values near 0 are best. It measures if two sets of data change together. Values close to 1 are best. Positive correlation indicates that large forecast values are associated with large observed values.