It is the sails and rudder that give you direction and focus. It is the single most important asset you own. Do whatever you must to develop a world view that enables you to make testable predictions. The Weight of the Past Can Sink You. Change tends to be incremental, and the direction of the near future changes very little from that of the past.
Future visibility is good.
During important turning points in history, however, we hit a future fog bank, and the relevance of the past declines dramatically. The direction of the near future can change dramatically. The future changes rapidly, drastically and unpredictably. Many old rules of thumb no longer work. You must learn when the past is less relevant.