That's the smallest since January 1997 and down from 619.2 billion a year ago. The ministry blamed slowing exports to Asia and the United States. The surplus measures the difference between Japan's overseas income from trade, services and investments and its overseas obligations. Analysts in fact anticipated a larger drop in the surplus, given export weakness. Exports dropped 22 percent from December and rose 4 percent over January 2000.
Japan is more accustomed to seeing double-digit export growth.
The numbers were boosted by unusually strong income from Japanese investments overseas, at 740.6 billion. Bond holders received two interest payments in January because December closed with a weekend. Domestic demand was also still quite strong in January. But other data show that it has since dropped off. As a result, Malcolm expects the trade surplus to drop much less sharply the next three to six months.