Consumers, not producers, have been the main beneficiaries. The technology treadmill has brought oversupply, leading to lower real commodity prices, and fewer farmers. Farmers in North Dakota have always had to deal with much variability of income because supply and demand for agricultural commodities is erratic. A shortfall, or abundance, of production is at the whim of weather and demand is impacted by personal income and by government policies around the world. Agriculture is the most export dependant industry in the United States, and North Dakota agriculture is more dependant on exports than any other state.
Local price is a function of world production and demand.
There is no guarantee that a small wheat crop in North Dakota will be offset by higher prices because North Dakota produces less than two percent of the worlds wheat. There has been a downward trend in North Dakota median net farm income since 1993 primarily because of the economics of spring wheat, barley and the beef cow-calf enterprises. Other disturbing statistics are the increase in the percentage of farms that have negative net farm income and high debt. Producers are working harder on and off the farm in an attempt to make ends meet. The economics of wheat in North Dakota has been deteriorating for several years because cost of production per bushel has been increasing.