But that cuts into earnings. And because analysts can't predict how big the provisions will be, it's hard to take banks' earnings forecasts seriously. Finance companies will be harder hit, as their securities affiliates are seeing very low turnovers. Property firms are having to sell assets to service their debts, fueling a property price downturn. For now, corporate earnings are not the best indicator of market value.
Estimates vary wildly.
I expect negative earnings growth this year and perhaps next. When the recovery does start, it's not going to be earnings-driven simply because of the heavy weight of financials. It was long expected. The reasons behind the move had already been discounted. The success of the recent bond issue is another positive sign.