The last column above is the discouraging one. Just getting back Ward would probably leave the Jays under .500, like lots of other teams with star relievers. It's the actual percentage. However, that would only project to another 1.3 wins so far this year over what the formula would predict given Ward'93 and Cox'93. So a good bullpen certainly doesn't guarantee outdoing the formula.
Luck is probably a bigger factor overall.
Remember that other teams typically have a good pitcher or two in their bullpen which they can use in important situations against the Jays, just as the Jays try to do to other teams. So having a better bullpen is probably just a small edge over what the formula would predict, and probably a smaller factor than luck. Ward blew just 6 saves in all of '93, but this year's pen has more blown saves already. The .725 pct was still 3rd best in the league. I think we tend to forget how often even a good bullpen blows saves.