As August began, the crop was 11 percent ahead of the long-term average for silking. Crop conditions were 19 points higher than usual. Weekly crop progress and condition reports were pointing to national average yields in the area of 143 bushels an acre. So, based on USDA s forecast for harvested acres, we seemed more than capable of ending up with 10.44 billion new bushels of corn. They accounted for 5 percent of USDA s projection for the 2000-01 marketing year, even though July sales typically add up to 12 percent of the annual total.
Exports are hard to call, though.
For example, July s sales have been behind average for the last three years. Japan often affects export totals in this way. On the other hand, forecasts are calling for another year of significant corn exports from China. So, USDA s corn export projection may be too optimistic. The U.S. poultry sector is looking toward an increase in feedgrain use, he said.