The popular view, that by means of opinion surveys one can discern the future direction of an economy, is problematic. The fact that a large group of people has expressed an opinion regarding future economic conditions doesn t make it more accurate than the view expressed by any particular individual. What matters here is not how many people have participated in an opinion survey but the framework of thinking they have employed in backing up their views. As long as their framework of thinking is not disclosed we should ensure that we are not too swayed by various opinion surveys. Notwithstanding their shortcomings, surveys can be quite useful for detailing the present state of consumer and business financial conditions.
Businesses reporting about their own activities can shed light on what is going on in the economy.
This data, together with information regarding government and central bank policies, can be of some, but limited, assistance in generating intelligent guesses of future economic conditions.