The bank, which studied 47 civil wars that took place from Afghanistan to Zimbabwe between 1960 and 1999, found that the single biggest risk factor for the outbreak of war was a nation's economic dependence on commodities. Eagerness to profit from coffee, narcotics, diamonds and other gemstones both prompts outbreaks of violence and determines their strength over time, says the study.
Civil wars are far more likely to be caused by economic opportunities than by grievance.
The report points to numerous specific examples. Sierra Leone's civil war is primarily about the control of diamond mines in that nation, the report says. In Nigeria, the Biafran secession movement involved a struggle for control of an oil producing region. The study's conclusions are sweeping. Rebels typically claim that they are fighting their governments to right religious, ethnic and political wrongs, it says, but it suggests that those are often either coincidental or ex post facto justifications for war.