The knowledge of how to automate a particular operation will be acquired by trial and error on each new plant. A new advance does not suddenly sweep over all industry instantaneously. Automation requires major investments in new facilities which businessmen are generally cautious about until a new technology has been demonstrated a definite winner. Once an operation becomes demonstrably cheaper to do by automation, a period of ten to thirty years exists before all human labor will be displaced from that operation. Another factor which requires time is that while each industry is similar, they do have their own distinct features.
Effort is required to adapt successful technology in one industry to a similar related industry.
I believe the decrease in employment in manufacturing will proceed, like the decrease in employment in agriculture, gradually over time. Services included government, wholesale, retail, medicine, education, finance, insurance, real estate, professional services like law, and utilities. Most new jobs are created in the services. Currently, computer and communications advances are creating new services, such as information services, at a rapid rate. In the services, job creation from the expansion of new services is much greater than job displacement from automation.