If you could be sure that your fund manager was in this small group then you would be onto a winner. I don't know. So I suspect that past performance, in the form normally shown, does not provide a statistically useful indicator of future performance. The next area of interest is to assess how , and why, companies actually present their past performance in an effort to persuade you to invest. All of their efforts can be split into two types of appeal.
Firms often combine both styles.
Rule number one is to beware data and presentations put together by fund managers or company marketers. It is the job of the marketing department to put the best gloss on whatever information they have. To help them in this they use statistics. The statistics themselves will be accurate, but their impact depends not so much on the numbers themselves, as the presentation. Most information is presented as simple numbers or as graphs.