A prolonged war, an internationally unpopular conflict, or a war with interdiction of U.S. transports by enemy forces will reveal the shortages in U.S. sealift. The reasons for such a shortage are numerous, and no easy solutions are apparent. Current shipbuilding in the United States is negligible, and there are no signs of a likely turnaround. Moreover, given the long lead times associated with shipbuilding, any newly constructed vessels would only join the fleet a number of years into the future. Naval construction also continues to shrink, with the Navy falling below 400 ships for the first time since 1945.
Economic issues are also prominent in justifying pessimism.
The U.S. will need to subsidize its shipbuilding and shipping industries if it is to possess adequate domestic sealift. A reserve program may also be necessary to ensure a sufficient supply of ready and able mariners. Given the recent trend toward economic deregulation, the intense political interest in domestic affairs following the cold war, and the historic U.S. inability to anticipate warfighting requirements, the future does not appear promising. There also is no indication that the distorted economics of U.S. shipping wrought by international protectionism will correct itself in the near future. The current cost structures of the international shipping industry continue to remain unfavorable for developing competitive U.S. shipping rates.