Since 1989, the Government of Pakistan has repeatedly asserted that its role in the insurgency has been confined to moral and diplomatic support. Few Pakistanis believe this assertion, which has become even more untenable after the US cruise missile strikes against militant training camps in Afghanistan resulted in Pakistani casualties. As the insurgency has evolved into a foreign-backed militancy, Islamabad's exposure has grown. At times this summer, the heaviest shelling was concentrated around the town of Kargil, making it difficult for India to provide supplies for the winter to Ladakh, a Buddhist region adjacent to Tibet. These are hardly the tactics of a Kashmiri insurgency.
Indian officials believe that Pakistan has run out of options on Kashmir.
They assert that the insurgency has failed, conventional warfare is too costly and dangerous for Pakistan, and nuclear warfare is unthinkable. All that is left is the training and support of foreign militants and keeping tensions high in Kashmir. Close observers of the step-jumps in violence along the LoC now wonder what the next level of provocation will be next summer. A re-evaluation of Pakistan's strategy and tactics towards Kashmir would seem wise, but succeeding governments in Islamabad have made this dispute along with support for the Taliban in Afghanistan top diplomatic priorities. No Pakistani leader can be viewed as selling out the Kashmiri cause.