Once a trend starts and momentum gathers steam, it takes extraordinary circumstances to reverse it. You do not make money by predicting where markets will go. Instead, you profit by responding to opportunities markets present. Markets do not care what anyone predicts. Strive to find opportunities with a high probability of success and a reasonable risk for potential return.
Every market position is important in the short-term.
Without margin money, there is no such thing as L-T trade. Expect some losses, but get out if they exceed your expectations. Most big loser trades are winners at some point. Usually they have almost as many up days as down days. But down days have two to three times the move of up days.