This is the first negative reading in several months and certainly does not suggest any change in trend. The largest drag on the overall index came from the yield curve and new capital goods orders.
Consumer confidence remains at an historically high level.
Initial claims continue to trend well below the 300K level. Every other indication suggests the economy is going strong and not close to showing any signs of slowing significantly. Typically, three consecutive monthly LEI changes in the same direction suggest a turning point in the economy. For example, consecutive negative readings would indicate a possible recession. While the LEI is an important forecasting tool, it has little impact on the bond market, because most of its components are published prior to its release.