An outbreak of armyworms has been reported in Lower and Middle Juba, Lower Shebelle, Bakool and Hiran regions. The food outlook for 1999 and beyond is extremely grim. Traditional coping strategies for most households have been virtually exhausted, while commercial and economic activities have been severely curtailed by factional fighting and insecurity, forcing large numbers of people to move in search of food and safety. Cereal prices are on the increase while prices of livestock continue to fall. However, livestock prices are reported to be falling due to weight loss caused by a shortage of grazing and water, and probably distress selling.
Malnutrition is reported to be high and increasing.
The already precarious food supply situation is set to deteriorate further in the coming months with renewed fighting in parts, and more population displacement. As of early July, only a quarter of the emergency food aid need had been delivered. With the failure of the main season, however, continued large scale food assistance will be required well into 2000. The international community needs to devise ways of reaching and assisting the increasingly desperate populations, despite the serious obstacles hampering food relief distributions, failing which starvation on a large scale cannot be ruled out. Most households will also need seeds and other inputs for planting during the next growing season.