Conceivably, the funds may be needed to purchase strategic stockpiles of fuel, food, and medical supplies. I expect there will be significant IT disruptions and failures in 2000. Some problems could start next year. I am convinced that a severe recession is the most likely outlook for the global economy in 2000. The recession could be at least as bad as the one during 1973-74, which was caused mostly by a disruption in the supply of oil.
Information is just as vital as oil for running our economies.
If information is harder to obtain, the amount of commercial and financial transactions, i.e., GDP, we can support will necessarily be reduced. Unfortunately, this might actually be an overly optimistic outlook if it turns out that our impaired IT systems can only support a much lower level of economic activity. Furthermore, a Year 2000 recession is bound to be deflationary. The IT revolution of the past four decades has contributed greatly to our global prosperity. I recognize that there are some who question whether computers have really contributed to productivity.