Investors appear to be getting restless and more frustrated with each passing day. I expect consumer confidence around the world to decline in August, causing investor's time horizons to possibly shorten. Therefore, I can see light at the end of the tunnel. I believe the U.S. may narrowly escape a recession. Now may be the time to consider investing.
Investors forget the market tends to bottom before the economy.
Things may look bad, but I believe they always do at turning points. Money supply growth has been closely correlated to growth in industrial production with a nine-month lag. Money supply growth measured by M2 has accelerated close to a 15-year high. A bottoming out of the NAPM index is consistent with a bottoming out of earnings. I believe we could see the NAPM index rise as we approach the fourth quarter.