The width of the range of outcomes depends on the length of the time horizon. The cone tilts upward, reflecting the expectation that the firm's value will grow during the two years. There is no magic to what we do. It's just applied common sense. My job is to forecast, not to predict.
Forecasting accepts that at any one time there are multiple possible outcomes.
That is the cone of uncertainty. My job is to map that, to reveal the options and opportunities, and to convince my clients that if they think about uncertainty, they can make better decisions, and depending on the circumstances, even influence the ultimate outcome. Many strategic investments come with a series of options, which have decision points in the interior of the cone of uncertainty, before the end of the cone ends at the decision date of the final option.