It is unclear what forces in the next decades will be stronger than those of the past two decades, or why they should have a stronger effect. Electronic purses, for example, will take several more years to become established on any scale and even then will only address a small proportion of cash use. Furthermore, there are factors which encourage the continued use of cash. For example, the very existence of ATMs makes it easier and more convenient to obtain cash, and black economies are flourishing in many countries. This is theoretically possible but such actions could prove unwise for the banks.
Banks are highly conscious of the costs of providing cash to customers.
The cost to the banks of each cash transaction taking place in the UK averages 8p, as compared to about 45p for each cheque, and 30p for each card payment and 20p for each electronic transaction. Most cash transactions take place outside the banking system. It therefore seems unlikely that banks would wish to price cash out of circulation. Even if they did want to do so, it is likely that other organisations would step in to fill the gap in the market by undercutting the prices charged by banks. Given the stubborn persistence of cash, it is important both to plan for its provision to customers as efficiently as possible and to understand its long lasting appeal.