Basic early-childhood programs such as immunization are still needed so we can fight off infectious bugs. But as populations age, more resources will be needed for the last third of life. Seniors who are hospitalized tend to require longer stays, which will mean even bigger medical bills. Especially when there will be more payouts to retirees than tax revenues from working people. After all, women tend to live longer than men, and many may have little savings of their own, having spent their lives caring for others.
Japan is already at that critical juncture.
Prolonged recession has made the corporate program, once the most viable of the three health-care components, increasingly shaky. Last year, Sanrio, which markets Hello Kitty goods, refused to pay more than half its share, saying the system was unfair to firms with many young employees. But that will only be a stopgap, says Suzuki Reiko, a social-service specialist. The ministry is considering options such as reducing coverage, raising premiums and introducing a separate health system for the elderly. All will pose political headaches.