During the US drought period, S. American beans were also very active in Asia. Yes, the drought alone caused the price of beans to escalate but remember, at that time US currency in the international market was also falling down. Face the fact that US currency is not very strong anymore compared to 5 to 10 years ago.
History is very important to base our facts.
But you have to consider that the present time is changing very fast. It is not always 1 reason at all to cost the bean price to go up. You should always consider more than 1 factor to escalate the bean price. Histrorical Data is again very important to gauge the consumption of the commodity. To based the price, I do not think so.