Residential construction is characterized as having stopped declining, but no solid upswing is yet in progress. Agricultural prospects are viewed as good in most areas, although shortages of certain production inputs are a problem. In addition, producers of meat animals and poultry are incurring severe losses as a result of recent price declines. Business loan demand has surged in recent weeks. In the consumer sector, there are signs that the most depressed areas, such as new cars, large used cars, and spending for tourism and recreation, are beginning to improve.
Districts commenting on the auto market indicate that the decline has ended.
Nonautomotive retail trade is generally described as having been soft during most of the first quarter. Pre-Easter sales, however, appear to be better than expected by retailers in some Districts. Minneapolis attributes good first quarter sales partly to the high level of farm income. On the other hand, Richmond says that consumers are becoming more cautious about discretionary spending, while Cleveland suggests that it is too early to conclude whether a significant pickup in general merchandise trade is underway. Business fixed investment continues to be an important source of strength.