You can view this Webcast using Windows Media Player, RealPlayer, or your telephone. As weak economic numbers trickle in around the region, the market has been expecting China to follow suit. But this shoe is not dropping.
China is a deflationary economy.
China's economy should grow by only a little bit less than last year's, even though export performs much worse. We do expect the economy to weaken in Q2 and Q3, as the US consumer becomes overwhelmed by job losses and wealth evaporation. The US consumer has held up so far. The Japanese consumer is switching to cheap Chinese imports from branded products, which should remain a bright spot for quite a while. As export slows in Q2, Chinese growth rate should also decline.