Bush's effort to make the election a referendum on restoring dignity and honor to the White House and civility to Congress is constrained by the more immediate and tangible interests of voters in the condition of the economy and policies that might shape its future and their well being. There simply is no precedent in American history for deposing a party from power when times are good and citizens view them as such. Third, Gore has emerged from the Democratic convention as the acknowledged leader of his party, as a man who is viewed as a partner in the team that governed during prosperous times but with a very different personal profile than President Clinton, and as a candidate who disagrees sharply with his opponent on a host of issues including tax cuts, prescription drugs, social security reform, abortion and gun control. This transformation in public opinion puts him in a strong position to maintain or increase his lead between now and November. Nothing is certain in politics, including a Gore victory in November.
Close elections are the norm when two nonincumbent candidates seek the presidency.
Divisions in party ranks between new Democrats and traditional constituencies such as labor and minorities could depress Democratic turnout. Gore's populist rhetoric might alienate suburban voters. Sustained economic recovery may well diminish the potency of pocketbook issues. Bush might surprise Gore in the debates and emerge as an exceptionally strong candidate whose centrist appeals trump his party's conservative platform. Green Party candidate Ralph Nader might siphon off enough Democrats to deny Gore victory in some key battleground states.