An internal coup could be launched by disaffected groups in the military or government. The collapse of the North could lead to a serious escalation of tension between China and the United States. US Defence Secretary, William Cohen, has said that it would be necessary for the 37,000 American troops to stay on after unification. Such a prospect would cause deep unease in Beijing as would the emergence of a stronger unified Korea. North Korea is the world's last outpost of Stalinism.
Communist ideology remains strong after years of indoctrination.
The support of China may prevent the country's immediate collapse but there is little sign that the leadership in Pyongyang is ready to embark on any fundamental reforms that could save their people from further misery and turmoil. 13 US resumes limited China contacts Fiji treason trial delayed UN envoy 'fails' in Burma Sturgeon poachers netted Indonesia registers Timor refugees Japanese minister lashes her bureaucrats Links to more Asia-Pacific stories are at the foot of the page.