Data are seasonally adjusted. Last plots for currency, M2, and M3 are estimated for April 2000. Dotted lines for M2 and M3 are FOMC-determined provisional ranges. All other lines represent growth in levels and are for reference only.
All yields are from constant-maturity series.
The estimated expected inflation rate and the estimated real rate are calculated using the Pennacchi model of inflation estimation and the median forecast for the GDP implicit price deflator from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. Inflation and Prices a. Annualized. Calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Upper and lower bounds for inflation path as implied by the central tendency growth ranges issued by the FOMC and nonvoting Reserve Bank presidents. Quadrants are defined by the median price changes in the two periods.