Abstract from 1997 SRA Annual Meeting Abstract of Meeting Paper Society for Risk Analysis 1997 Annual Meeting Bayesian Forecasting. That forecasts should be stated in probabilistic rather than categorical terms has been argued from operational and decision-theoretic perspectives for almost a century.
Bayesian theory offers both the rationale and the methods for probabilistic forecasting.
Recent applications in hydrometeorologic forecasting illustrate the appeal of the Bayesian framework and methods.