Reliable records of US landfalling tropical cyclones extend back to around 1900. Less reliable records extend back to the 1600s. Public statements that human-induced global warming will dramatically increase tropical cyclone frequency are not supported by scientific evidence. Other aspects of the effect of global warming on tropical cyclone activity remain uncertain. For predicting the variability of tropical cyclone activity from year to year, statistical-empirical approaches are better developed at present than modeling or theory.
All approaches show promise for improving our basic understanding of tropical cyclones.
Natural interannual to decadal fluctuations in regional tropical cyclone activity are much greater than changes in average tropical cyclone activity predicted by current computer models for an Earth with a human-generated doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide. The frequency of rare events in local regions can only be roughly approximated by extrapolation of historical data. The bounds on this extrapolation can and should be determined. Causes of long-term tropical cyclone variability are uncertain, but credible hypotheses exist. There are credible reasons to believe that Atlantic tropical cyclone activity may increase in the near future to the levels observed in the 1940s, 1950s, and 1960s.