At provincial and national levels, open debate and criticism are increasingly evident. These are healthy trends for China, and the interplay between economic growth and political transformation will, I believe, continue to move the country toward a more open and civil society, one with rising standards of living and a growing commitment to being a stabilizing force in the world order. But, China, like other great, emerging nations, will move ahead in response to its own rhythms. I do not believe there is any possibility we will speed up or change the course of China's development through coercion. Containment will not work, even if it were possible to effect.
China is already the world's third-largest economy.
As noted, the nation draws more foreign investment than any other country except the United States, and is among the top ten trading economies. Even at that, China's economy may still be the world's fastest growing by the end of the year, and the surgery being done on its state-owned enterprise and banking systems will likely make its economy even more robust and competitive by the turn of the century. There are no straight lines in economics, of course, but it is quite possible that China will overtake Japan in aggregate GDP in the next fifteen to twenty years, and the United States a decade after that . As China's economic power grows, so will its influence on the world stage. However, China's rise as a world economic power and its growing influence do not necessarily foreshadow its commensurate rise as a global military power and a threat to U.S. interests.