But its senior senator is Democrat Bob Graham, a cautious centrist in the same mold as Nelson, and Democrats contend Florida is winnable for the Gore-Lieberman ticket this fall, just as it was for Clinton four years ago. What's surprising is that it is McCollum, the Republican, rather than Nelson, the Democrat, who is scrambling to be competitive. Independent polls have shown McCollum trailing Nelson by as much as 11 points, and a recent GOP poll showed him down by 5 points. Republicans say this is because McCollum is still little known outside of the Orlando area that he has represented in the House since 1981, while Nelson has run twice statewide for insurance commissioner. McCollum did only a little television advertising for the Republican primary before his main GOP rival dropped out.
Democrats concede the race is likely to tighten.
But they contend Nelson's lead is based on more than name recognition, citing both his centrist reputation and McCollum's more ideological image, fueled by his conservative voting record and his role in impeachment. Impeachment is rarely mentioned but appears to be part of the background noise of the campaign, energizing Republicans for McCollum and Democrats against him. He gets good notices for his campaign but only about 5 percent in polls. He could hurt Nelson if he picks up strength, both parties agree. The challenge for both candidates was evident during a Senate candidate debate sponsored here earlier this month by the Florida Chamber of Commerce.