China will also recognise that, short of invading Taiwan, it will have little choice but to work with the new president. In any case, no Taiwan leader will have much scope to discuss reunification as long as public opinion remains firmly against it. The prospect of improved commercial ties may also provide a forum in which China and Taiwan can make progress on closer links while delaying the more contentious issue of political reunification. Finally, China, despite its recent rhetoric, has also sent subtle signals that it may be willing to take a more conciliatory tone in future talks. The recent white paper, for example, suggested for the first time the notion of parity, or equivalency, in discussions between the two, an important shift in China's approach to reunification talks.
China has other reasons for acting cautiously after the election.
Military action against Taiwan would be risky, for several reasons. Taiwan's F-16 and Mirage fighter jets are also superior to China's combat aircraft, raising the possibility of severe losses for mainland forces. China, as it demonstrated in 1996, has the capability of launching missiles at Taiwan, but this would only serve to harden resistance against Beijing, which, in any case, would have to follow up with troops if it hoped to take control of the island. Washington has never been clear on how, when or even if it would defend Taiwan against a military assault. The actual level of spending is, most likely, many times higher.