It is possible to identify the developments that are likely to shape the challenges for global security in the initial years of the next century. There is plenty of evidence of geopolitical manoeuvring, with the United States, Russia, China and the European community, among others, re-evaluating their roles in an uncertain world. The United States will no doubt remain the pre-eminent global power for some time to come. Yet efforts to balance its budget and pressures from domestic isolationist forces may combine to limit America's ability to remain fully engaged in critical regions. Russia's future course is unclear, as it copes with enormous political and socio-economic evolution precipitated by communism's collapse.
China is at a crossroads.
With its massive population, high-growth economy, and Hong Kong absorbed, China will certainly play a growing role in the world's affairs. The European community is an example of dramatic change and unprecedented cooperation and accommodation. There is relative understanding in relations among the great powers, but a number of violent conflicts continue to pose serious challenges to peace. The risk of conflict between states will continue. Deep-seated territorial and ideological grievances persist in volatile regions like the Middle East, South Asia and the Korean Peninsula.