Agencies, therefore, have an incentive to overestimate caseloads during the appropriations process. Agencies use information from a number of federal and state sources to estimate caseloads. This information may include economic data, such as employment and wage statistics from the Texas Employment Commission or from federal poverty information. Population data may come from the U.S. Bureau of the Census. Agencies also must factor into projections the potential effects of new state and federal legislation.
Agencies use various techniques to estimate caseloads.
For example, the Texas Department of Human Services may choose one of several time-series methods, including a simple regression model, to estimate the Aid to Families with Dependent Children caseload. In addition, caseload estimates go through a series of approvals before agencies release them. After forecasters prepare the initial estimate, program experts review it and send it back for changes. The corrected estimates go to the agency's executive for approval. In agencies governed by boards or commissions, the governing body must give final approval.