February milk production was down 1.6 percent after accounting for data revisions and leap year. Arizona production was down 9.3 percent due to reductions in production per cow. Texas and Missouri had the highest production losses, down 15.5 and 10.9 percent, respectively , due to fewer cows and reduced production per cow related to the bad weather. Others states such as Kentucky, Minnesota, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Vermont and Virginia had production declines of 4-5 percent. Only California, Idaho and Indiana had production gains.
Cotton prices are likely to remain weak and under pressure for the near term.
USDA's estimate of 2001 planting intentions at 15.6 million acres may in fact end up being a little low. Mill use of the 2001 crop may improve somewhat but not enough to offset a large increase in US production if weather cooperates. Exports will be a big factor. Given the decline in US mill business, it will take a near record level of exports to keep from building stocks if weather cooperates. The US has never been able to export that amount of cotton without China being a big buyer and right now that doesn't appear very likely.