Scientists from the Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory and the South Florida Water Management District have long known that short-term climate patterns such as El Nino greatly affect yearly rainfall. But this study looks at North Atlantic sea surface temperature shifts between warm and cool phases that last two to four decades each. According to the scientists, central and south Florida receive more rainfall when the North Atlantic is warm. For example, a 10-year average inflow to Lake Okeechobee during warm phases is 40 percent greater than for cool phases. For most of the past 30 years the North Atlantic has been cool and Florida has had less rainfall.
Current data suggest that a transition to warm conditions is under way.
The result may be less frequent droughts in Florida, but more frequent flooding. Climate variability affects the evolution and needs of the natural systems that depend on water availability. Understanding these climate factors will allow us to make operating decisions on flood protection and water supply sooner and less abruptly. This will help us manage south Florida's precious natural ecosystems in a less intrusive, more friendly manner. Storm waves are less likely to produce damage during low tide than during high tide, but some damage will still occur.