Watch South Africa's dismal basic services improve now that its black majority has the vote. Civil liberty seems an odd parameter, given the record of some of the countries that rank high in social-development indices. The trouble is that revolutionary fervour does not last. Zimbabwe's new elite did well to develop widespread primary education, but shows signs of adopting the same elitist habits as the old one. Cuba failed to develop the economic base to keep its exp ensive social programmes in good order now that Soviet subsidies have run out.
Any elite tends to look after itself first.
That is why many poor countries spend much of their health and education budgets on high-technology hospitals and universities, instead of rural clinics and primary schools. The tendency is still worse if the regime feels threatened by powerful interest groups such as the army or landlords. It will sooner buy them off than get into the longterm process of delivering basic education and health, whose political pay-off is real, but not immediate. Meeting basic needs does not have to be costly. Schools and clinics are labour-intensive, and in poor countries even skilled labour is relatively cheap.