Initial Unemployment Claims - Historical View Initial Claims Continue Downward Trend Initial claims for unemployment insurance is a component of the Leading Index. Claims represent the number of workers filing for unemployment benefits following the loss of a job.
Claims are sensitive to changing economic conditions and are a good predictor of turning points.
In the initial stages of economic recovery, layoffs are slow and hiring accelerates with the result that claims drop. In the later stages of an expansion, as the economy begins to decelerate and the labor market softens, layoff occur at the margins of the work force, hiring slows, and initial claims increase. Claims are adjusted for seasonal variation.