China now exists in an ambiguous twilight zone between its old Maoist self and its new . . . Since the world does not have a good model of a Communist Party that reformed itself out of existence, and since despite all its distinctly un-Communist economic energy the Chinese Communist Party shows no evidence of wanting to wither away, prognosticators find themselves in uncharted waters. Indeed, rarely has there been a country of consequence that has so defied prediction. Few specialists foresaw Tienanmen Square. And virtually none of us imagined that a mere five years later, China's tainted leadership would have successfully led the country on such an awesome tear of economic development.
China is a paradox.
China will continue to enjoy high economic growth and will become more modern and prosperous, but politically it will most probably remain as conservative, secretive and repressive as ever. But if central control over the Government, party, military and public security apparatus suffer a similar regionalization, he sees China as becoming increasingly feudalized even as it becomes more modernized. One of the canaries in the mine shaft that van Kemenade has been watching carefully is the tax collection system. Such tensions are compounded by the fact that China has yet to institutionalize a system for leadership succession. He won't predict.