Without a willingness by those countries to provide sanctuaries and facilitate the supply of arms, the prospect of an effective indigenous resistance will remain an illusion rather than a reality. Right now, the truth is that without exception these countries are skeptical about the viability of such a strategy and will not be willing to provide the necessary cooperation it requires in the absence of a convincing demonstration by the United States that it is determined to bring Saddam down and will, if necessary, be prepared to use American military power, including ground forces should they be required, in support of an armed Iraqi opposition. These countries, which rightly or wrongly believe that the Iraqi opposition cannot bring down the Baathist regime on their own, do not want to expose themselves to the further wrath of an enraged Saddam unless they are convinced that by doing so they can be confident he will no longer be in a position to retaliate against them. This yawning gap between our stated policy and our actual policy is exacting a heavy price in our credibility and will continue, to our eventual regret and inevitable disadvantage, to erode our credibility in the future. This is not a matter to be lightly dismissed.
Credibility is the coin in which great powers conduct their affairs.
Our ability to influence others to act in ways that protect our interests and promote our values, particularly in the Middle East, depends on their perception that the United States has the ability and resolve to meet its commitments and carry out its threats. To the extent that Saddam remains in power, and continues to defy the relevant resolutions of the UN on weapons of mass destruction and other matters, it underscores the irrelevancy of our rhetoric and the futility of our policy. We will almost certainly end up paying a heavy price for it. In defense of its refusal to provide the Iraqi opposition with the arms called for in the Iraq Liberation Act, the Administration says it does not want to be responsible for another Bay of Pigs. Neither, it contends, does it want to be held morally accountable for the loss of life such a policy would inevitably entail.