He argues that its growth rates are usually inflated to the extent that even Chinese Prime Minister Zhu Rongji distrusts them. Taking all these qualifications into account, China's economy is effectively in recession. China made up a mere 3 percent of total world trade in 1997, about the same as South Korea and less than the Netherlands. China now accounts for only 11 percent of total Asian trade. Despite the hype about the importance of the Chinese market, exports to China are tiny.
China poses a formidable threat to the likes of the mighty Philippines.
China is in no military shape to take the disputed Senkaku Islands from Japan, which is decently armed. Beijing clearly is a serious menace to Taiwan, but even this most acute security concern on China's front door cannot be resolved by China because the United States stands in its way. Dr. Segal states that because China challenges Western authority, it matters to some extent. But it does not matter so much that it can't be constrained. The true time for celebration will come when China has engaged in thorough political reforms and genuinely gives its people the ability to stand up tall in the world.