We anticipate continued, but slower growth in the near future. The personal income tax is Maryland's largest source of General Fund revenue. Only Keno has shown an increase in sales, while instant games ticket sales are nearly flat. The growth in revenue reflects changes in tax law which changed the method of taxing banks from the franchise tax to the corporate income tax and expanded the tax base for local telephone companies. The Board also claims the U. S. economy is slowing down and a 1999 recession is only a possibility.
Consumer spending is a key to avoiding a recession.
Maryland's job growth was good in 1997, and in the first quarter of 1998, but then slowed down for the rest of the year. Gains are expected in construction, business services, and some parts of transportation. The Census Bureau for 1999 will have a temporary increase of 2000 jobs in Maryland. Translate this as an increase in gas tax. Earlier the staff had also plugged the tobacco settlement into the annual budgets, ostensibly to demonstrate how little effect it would have if fully spent as received.