I'm betting on the latter. If you look at a 5-year chart of the DJIA, you'll see that the Dow has essentially been trading sideways since plateauing in May of 99'. Oh yeah, it made some new highs but the chart shares none of the ascending characteristics of the years prior to the spring of 99. And the Dow just can't seem to break through 11,000 with any kind of conviction. That IBD and others are declaring that the Bear is dead does not make it so.
Caution is the word of the day.
But the reason that everyone is cutting rates is to fend off a world-wide recession. I think they are all too late and that we are in a de-facto recession. Regardless, I think this rally will continue for a while. It may last well into summer, though that would be an anomaly.