No one expects this to occur. Leaders of both parties have acknowledged that a number of appropriations bills cannot pass unless the amount of funding provided for the bills is at significantly higher levels than the current caps allow. Moreover, the CBO and OMB projections assume that for years after 2002, total expenditures for appropriated programs will remain at the level of the severe cap for FY 2002, adjusted only for inflation in years after FY 2002. This means that the surplus projections assume levels of expenditures for appropriated programs for fiscal years 2001 through 2009 that are lower, when inflation is taken into account, than the highly unrealistic FY 2000 cap that almost certainly will not be met. Also of note, both parties have proposed significant increases in defense spending in coming years.
Defense spending constitutes about half of overall expenditures for appropriated programs.
In addition, legislation enacted last year requires increases in highway spending in coming years. These factors are further reasons why the caps are unlikely to be sustained. CBO must base its budget projections on current law. The spending caps on appropriated programs are current law. CBO has acted properly in developing its projections.