The 12-month moving average of employment growth is now 101,000. February's gain was revised higher to 140,000 from 135,000 and January's gain in jobs was revised upward to 289,000 from 224,000. However, the pace of job growth, slowing as dramatically as it is now, shows that the overall state of the economy is indeed weakening. The question now is whether this is a one-month, fluky figure, or whether it's a harbinger of several more months of weak data. And that may depend on whether the consumer can lead the economy out of its current slump through continued spending, or whether the sharp decline in business investment will pull the economy into recession.
Business confidence is low and most anecdotal measures show very little rebound in capital spending.
Employers have held onto workers as long as possible but this may be changing. Read our conflicts and disclosure policy . Order reprints of TSC articles. May 2 is Global Speech Day. The news is flooded with reports of layoffs, but March jobs data likely will show that the overall employment scene remains healthy.