U.S. exports will have difficulty maintaining the 965 million bushels of the current year. We project shipments at 950 million bushels. With seed, feed, and residual use of 175 million bushels next year, use for all purposes is projected at 2.745 billion bushels, leaving carryover stocks of 485 million bushels. 4.73 154.96 15.53 Feb. 4.87 162.99 15.10 Mar. The cash crush margin has generally increased since February.
Current prices are near the low end of the range for the year.
New lows are expected if the 2000 growing season ends on a favorable note. Further downside is possible if crop conditions and yield prospects improve. However, there is still some concern about the negative impact of wet weather and potential disease problems on yield prospects. Even with some deterioration in crop prospects, prices are not expected to recover above the loan rate. The soybean market provided only a brief opportunity this spring to price soybeans above the loan rate for harvest delivery.