The new ones don't, evidenced by the fact that most banking contractions occur within a circle consisting mostly of new bankers. The often all too rapid extension of credit gets them every time and they over extend to such a degree that problems of repayment are inevitable. Expansionary periods can't happen without bank participation. The dangerous desire to be top dog will always be present and credit expansion is the banks' only tool. When supply exceeds demand, contraction sets in and when demand exceeds supply, expansion sets in.
All wheels turn full circles.
The style of the wheel may change, but the function does not. What has been out of favor will ultimately replace that which is in favor. Look carefully at depressed assets, as opposed to overvalued assets, in any investment arena. However, they are usually several years ahead of the end user of the product and as a result are often well into their own form of recession well before it occurs elsewhere. As demand decreases, production slows down and a period of entrenchment occurs.