The effect is that total trade in foodstuffs may rise slightly, but the food aid shipments will inevitably displace commercial exports. There is little question that in some countries, some commercial sales have been displaced in the last couple of years. Often when food aid is thrust upon a market, a regular buyer does not need to make a normal purchase because the buyer will purchase the food donation shipment when it arrives in his country. The larger the food aid shipments to a particular importing country, the greater the probability of displacement. Timing of the delivery and quality of product as well as quantity are critical elements in avoiding commercial displacement.
Commercial sales have a difficult time competing with food aid donations.
Food aid shipments to North Korea and Ethiopia surely resulted in additional US export tonnage. Food aid shipments, especially large shipments to many of the other countries, even low income countries like Bangladesh and Pakistan, which are regular commercial importers, has surely resulted in some displacement of commercial exports. Sometimes the US food aid shipment displaces goods from competitor nations. In fact, many competitor nations view the large US food aid shipments of the last couple of years as an unfair export subsidy program. Other times, the US food aid shipments may directly displace a US export sale.