In contrast to the past, however, the unused Lower Basin apportionment upon which California has relied is shrinking. For the first time ever, this year, demand for water in the Lower Basin exceeded the Basin's basic apportionment of 7.5 maf. Demand is expected to exceed 8 million acre-feet this coming year. Consumption in each of the three lower division states has been growing, and we can anticipate that with present patterns of use, demand will continue regularly to exceed 7.5 maf. Fortunately, in the last few years water has been abundant.
Analysis shows a very low risk of future shortage.
For these reasons, we declared a surplus condition that allowed all Lower Basin water demand to be met in calendar year 1996. We anticipate a similar decision for 1997. However, conditions of abundance will not always prevail, and users in the Lower Basin cannot depend on surpluses always being available. The six Basin states other than California have proposed discussions to develop multiple year surplus and shortage criteria that will for an interim period meet at least part of the demand in the Lower Basin. This is a significant proposal, but it is based on California's ability to commit to an enforceable program to reduce its reliance on surplus water, without creating undue risk to other entitlement holders.