Beijing claims sovereignty over the island to which its Nationalist Chinese enemies fled in 1949. A majority of the people in Taiwan have said in poll after poll that they have no desire to be ruled from the mainland. The United States has long held that the dispute across the straits should be settled peaceably and, more recently, insisted that any resolution be acceptable to the people on Taiwan. That policy worked while China was weak. With each passing day, as China emerges as a major power in Asia, it becomes more apparent that strategic ambiguity is no longer useful.
Ambiguity can lead to miscalculation that, in turn, can lead to war.
We who live with the daily reminder of the Arizona Memorial are witnesses to the most devastating miscalculation of the 20th century. More than one student of Asia has begun to wonder if China has started down the road of miscalculation once trod by Japan. Confronted with that possibility, and with mounting evidence that the Chinese ignorance of America is monumental, the United States has little choice but to assume a posture of firm deterrence. William Perry, a secretary of defense in the Clinton administration and a superb diplomatic negotiator, has said that the best way for China to halt the missile defenses planned by the United States in the Pacific would be to stop building missiles that threaten Taiwan. Writ large, the best way for China to soften the policy of the United States on the defense of Taiwan, including the sale of arms to Taipei, would be to renounce the use of force in settling the dispute across the Taiwan Strait.