These reductions, along with exacerbated problems of irrigation water availability, may force the maize crop out of production in some regions by 2050. Egypt is particularly vulnerable to global warming because of its dependence on the Nile River, its large traditional agricultural base, and its long coastline, where sea-level rise may inundate crops. Current trends in Mediterranean population growth, land and water use, and food supply and demand reveal significant differences between the Northern and Southern Mediterranean countries. Wheat is rainfed at Matruh on the Mediterranean coast and irrigated at the other three sites on the Nile River. Scenario simulations include the direct effects of CO 2 on crop photosynthesis and water use.
CF indicates crop failure.
Our research shows that climate change could further exacerbate these trends, especially in the southern basin where agricultural production is increasingly unable to satisfy internal food demand, and soil quality and water availability continue to deteriorate. While the northern countries may fare better in the short run, production is still likely to decline with global warming. In the southern basin, more than a third of irrigated land is in Egypt where special problems arise due to salinization, water logging, and salt-water intrusion. The Mediterranean studies demonstrate the advantage of collaboration between local scientists and experts in climate change impact studies. Local scientists have an intimate knowledge of the agricultural systems, an invaluable aid to proper crop model validation and evaluation of results.