While recent headlines celebrated America's overall drop in crime rates, some researchers argue that these figures do not tell the whole story. Between 1990 and 1994, the rate of murders committed by 14 to 17 year-old youths climbed 22 percent, even as the murder rate by adults aged 25 and over declined by 18 percent. One important factor is the rapidly changing demographic landscape.
Demographic change affects the number of both potential criminals and potential victims.
As older Americans flee the cities for gated communities and suburban homes fitted with security systems, there are fewer prey available for potential predators. At the same time, crimes that are committed become increasingly concentrated in inner city areas where unsupervised kids often roam. According to a June 6 th New York Times report, eighty-four percent of the nation's counties had no juvenile homicides at all. Of course, how we nurture this cohort of children may ultimately prevail over demographic determinism. But that's another story.