If efforts at another peace initiative bear fruit, the process is sure to be difficult and crisis-ridden, but the past two months' experience may teach the participants something about how to get discussions started. Artillery shelling occurs almost daily between Indian and Pakistani forces. Within the valley of Kashmir, militant groups stepped up their attacks on military, paramilitary and police targets after last year's fighting in the Kargil sector. Strikes and security roundups have disrupted daily life and education, and regular arrests of young men create an atmosphere where no one feels secure. The tourist industry has disappeared for the time being, and much of the handicrafts industry has moved outside the state, at least temporarily.
Agricultural production continues, subject to the disruptions of the security situation.
No investment has taken place during this time. Add to this gloomy picture a dysfunctional state government mired in rumors of corruption. The resulting economic depression deepens the already profound alienation of Kashmiris from India. The Chief Minister of the parts of Kashmir under Indian administration, Farooq Abdullah, whose late father was the dominant political leader of Kashmir for decades, cast his lot years ago with the Indian government. His reputation for leadership in Kashmir is at best shaky.