A new mathematical model, based on known disease transmission rates, predicts that plans to eliminate the leading cause of preventable blindness cannot succeed unless the worst pockets of infection receive special treatment. Trachoma, a bacterial eye infection, affects some 150 million people worldwide.
Children are particularly vulnerable.
Reinfection causes scarring that can lead to blindness, and currently, some six million people have been left sightless from the infection. Arid, rural regions of Africa, the Middle East and parts of Asia are areas of the greatest concentration. Pfizer Inc. Although WHO has not yet announced its final treatment strategy, plans most often aired involve annual antibiotic treatments for people in the affected regions, along with cleaning water supplies and encouraging improved face washing. But while annual antibiotic treatment will eliminate the disease in most regions, it will not be sufficient to do so in the areas where trachoma among children is most prevalent, according to computer projections developed by UCSF researchers. Reinfection can lead to blindness.