Establishment candidates often get their comeuppance in Iowa and New Hampshire. President Truman got defeated by Estes Kefauver in the 1952 New Hampshire Democratic primary. President Johnson was embarrassed by Eugene J. McCarthy's strong New Hampshire showing in 1968. Both Presidents got the message and pulled out of the race. In 1984, when Walter F. Mondale was all but anointed by the Washington Establishment, New Hampshire Democrats said, ''Just a minute, there,'' and voted for Gary Hart.
Candidates ignore Iowa and New Hampshire at their peril.
Ronald Reagan ignored Iowa in 1980 and got beaten there by George Bush. Of course, adjustments have to be made when local candidates run. Iowa meant nothing in 1992 because no Democrat would run there against favorite son Tom Harkin. Massachusetts candidates are always expected to do well in next-door New Hampshire. The biggest threat to the preeminence of the New Hampshire primary in 2000 comes, not from other states, but from New Hampshire's U.S. Sen. Robert C. Smith.