The odds are not promising. From the point of view of Iraq's smaller neighbors, this outcome could come exactly at the moment when they are vulnerable to intimidation. Already in deep economic trouble because of depressed oil prices, they are likely to be in deeper trouble if current oil projections hold. Having condoned a policy aimed at overthrowing another government, Arab rulers will become easier targets themselves. Saddam unwittingly helped the U.S. muster support among Arab governments by calling for their overthrow after the December bombings.
Arab governments see no evidence of the imminent demise of Iraq's rulers.
The longer Saddam survives, the more uncomfortable they will grow with U.S. policy. All this means that our policy increasingly will alienate allies and is ultimately dangerous. There are only two serious options. This is a highly expensive option, with risks of extended U.S. military presence, but it is more likely to topple Saddam before he acquires weapons of mass destruction. Since there seems little possibility today of persuading the American public and international allies that the threat is of such magnitude as to warrant these costs, this option is remote.