The wounds resulted therefrom are still green, and the progress in the negotiations about the protracted conflicts is to be urgently achieved. The analysis of the current situation in the conflict zones shows that even a slightest impulse may lead to re-escalation of the existing conflicts or create new hotbeds. The analysis of the work conducted at the present stage within the framework of the project shows that the conflicts currently existing in Georgia, the Caucasus and the entire post-communist area have very much in common. Each risk zone can be described by the aggregate of socio-political indicators and the factors influencing the situation in the region, which we briefly denominate as the situation variables . Basing upon them and by means of the empirical model the extent of probability of conflict for a certain time period in a given risk zone may be established, while a picture of the situation variables dynamics enables to forecast the probable development of events.
Any theoretical model is of value only if it accurately reflects the actual state of affairs.
This especially concerns such sphere of public relations as conflicts, for, as it is known, it is least of all liable to forecasting and modelling. It is a peculiar test through which the compliance of theory with practice is being checked. From this point of view the historic prerequisites and concrete objective reasons calling forth the origin of the two conflicts have been studied.