Growth averaged 12 percent when Republicans occupied the White House. The jobless rate moves higher under a Republican president. Also, interest rates are higher. On the other hand, inflation starts higher under a Republican presidency, and then winds up somewhat less at the end of four years than under a Democrat. That presumably reflects the poorer performance of the economy, says Kellner.
Corporate profits grow faster under a Democratic regime.
Except for the second year of a term, the stock market as measured by the Dow Jones Industrial Average has fared much better under Democratic presidents. As for the budget, deficits have been smaller under Democratic presidents. Perhaps that is no surprise considering the defense-spending buildup and tax cuts engineered by President Reagan. At the moment, economists expect the Fed to raise rates one or two more times this summer. He figures the Fed would like the Dow index under 10000, the Nasdaq under 3000.