According to recent forecasts by the Timber Supply and Demand Conference, a group of Japanese importer associations and representatives of the main timber-producing countries, demand for imported wood products is predicted to fall again this year in Japan. From discernable trends, the production of softwood plywood will increase while tropical hardwood plywood production will continue to decline. Log imports from New Zealand and Chile for crating and packaging lumber are also expected to fall but demand for radiata pine for plywood should increase. Japanese imports of European lumber should grow to 2.3 million m 3 this year. For Europe, the main concern for 2001 is the strengthening of the euro, since exports were driven by a weak euro in 2000.
China provides some sharp relief to the general story of decline.
It is, in fact, the world's fastest-growing market for tropical timber products. Already, the country imports more tropical than temperate timber. Chinese timber imports have doubled since 1993. This increase is the result of many factors including explosive growth in per capita consumption, especially related to construction and housing development, and a comparatively strong yuan. But per capita consumption is still well below that of the developed economies, suggesting potential for continued growth.