In the coming decades, droughts may be less frequent in Florida according to a new study by scientists that links slow, multi-decadal changes in North Atlantic Ocean temperatures to North American rainfall and river flows. However, this study, slated for publication in the May issue of the journal Geophysical Research Letters, looks at North Atlantic sea surface temperature shifts between warm and cool phases that last two to four decades each. According to the scientists, central and south Florida receive more rainfall during multi-year periods when the North Atlantic is warm. For example, a 10-year average inflow to Lake Okeechobee during warm phases is 40 percent greater than for cool phases. For most of the past 30 years the North Atlantic has been cool and Florida has had less rainfall.
Current data suggest that a transition to warm conditions is under way.
The result may be less frequent droughts in Florida, but more frequent flooding. By adapting water management strategies to this North Atlantic climate pattern, water managers hope to better meet the competing objectives of flood control, water supply and environmental enhancement. Climate variability affects the evolution and needs of the natural systems that depend on water availability. Understanding these climate factors will allow us to make operating decisions on flood protection and water supply sooner and less abruptly. This will help us manage south Florida's precious natural ecosystems in a less intrusive, more friendly manner.