Sales now on the books are quite large for this time of the year and suggest fall exports of both corn and soybeans should be relatively strong. In short, demand appears likely to strengthen from this fall onward and should be relatively strong. Exports may face some increase in foreign competition, but should still be fairly strong. Prices will remain potentially volatile until we see whether most of the U.S. corn and soybean crops reach full maturity without frost damage. Barring serious losses from early frost, new-crop prices for both corn and soybeans may drift a little lower into harvest.
Corn appears to have greater downside risk than soybeans.
Gradually strengthening demand should set the stage for at least modest price strength from the end of harvest into mid-winter for both crops. Markets for both corn and soybeans will be sensitive to weather developments this winter in the Southern Hemisphere. With downside risk between now and the peak of harvesting, purchases of put options are a tool that might be considered to set a floor on prices while retaining upside potential. Old-crop cash prices will be quite volatile until widespread harvesting begins. Large variations in prices from one elevator to another are possible, depending on availability of local supplies.