The general thrust of this month's commentaries is that expectations concerning the near-term outlook for business have deteriorated considerably. District reports emphasize supply-demand imbalances in labor, product, and financial markets. The supply situation is improving in some product lines, while conditions remain abnormally tight or have grown worse in others. Qualitative statements suggest that aggregate economic activity is registering little if any real improvement in the current quarter.
Consumer spending remains sluggish, except for a recent spurt in auto sales.
Inventories held by retailers generally are considered excessive. Housing is depressed throughout the nation, with indications of a further weakening in store. The capital spending picture may require reevaluation, as industrial firms and utilities announce cutbacks or postponements in their plans for expenditures. Agricultural prospects for crops and feedgrains have improved somewhat since early August, but the situation in the livestock industry is dismal. Savings outflows from thrift institutions continued in August, and banks in some Districts are also experiencing losses in deposits.