We'll find out quickly whether Bill Clinton is serious about passing any landmark legislation in his final year in the White House. His State of the Union address, scheduled for Jan. 27, is the key. If Clinton doesn't meet the GOP Congress part way, his final year will fizzle more than it sizzles. If House Republicans have any hope of maintaining their tenuous grasp on power, they'll have to convince some veteran lawmakers to seek reelection. So watch what House Banking Committee Chairman Jim Leach of Iowa, House Judiciary Committee Chairman Henry Hyde of Illinois, and House Republican Conference Chair J.C. Watts of Oklahoma decide to do.
Democrats already have an advantage because of the large number of Republican retirements to date.
If more senior Republicans pack it in, Democrats could be on their way to regaining the majority they lost in 1994. CEOs haven't been particularly adept at lobbying on major issues in recent years. We'll soon see how serious business is about reversing fortunes this year. There's a big showdown coming over China's proposed entry into the World Trade Organization. If business groups team up early with President Clinton and mobilize to convince wavering lawmakers to pass the enabling legislation for China's entry, they have a shot at it.