The GATT agreement has several special provisions for developing countries. These provisions allow a number of exemptions from GATT rules, permitting developing countries greater freedom in their policies or longer adjustment periods. The major question for developing countries, however, is not particular special treatment but what will be the implications of the agreement for trade volumes and world prices of their major import and export crops. The differences between the baseline and reform scenarios in this study are significant. There are major cutbacks in EC production and net exports of grains.
All exporters gain from a projected increase in world grain prices.
As originally hoped by the United States, the U.S. share of world trade in wheat and feedgrains increases and the EC share declines. Canada retains its share, and Australia gains somewhat. The former Soviet Union is projected to benefit from trade reform, significantly reducing its import requirements. Considering developing countries as a single group, the study projects a major increase in their total imports of grains by about 50 percent. While all such studies are highly speculative, the similarity of results in this and earlier studies should be noted.