The 1994 election ratified a long-term increase in the number of competitive congressional seats.
Conventional wisdom predicts a good year for Democratic congressional candidates.
The Democratic presidential candidate currently appears popular and it appears that the economy will remain strong at least through the election. Conventional wisdom, however, ignores several vital points. Clinton's coattails proved short in 1992 and may prove very short again this year. First, congressional retirees are disproportionally Democratic. Republicans enjoy an incumbency advantage relative to Democrats.