Moreover, as this number 'prints' we hear auto analysts are cutting their sales forecasts -uh, oh. Another chiller is that the downshift in consumer spending for services in the first quarter of 2001 dovetails with the drop in service sector jobs posted in March. All of that 'fits' quite unfortunately with the renewed drop in consumer confidence, especially the surveyed portion about 'current conditions'. After all, consumer confidence is all about jobs. The jump last week in jobless claims to above the 400,000 mark is another very worrisome development and it's not about the 400,000 mark itself.
Claims are a good recession predictor.
It has been an unimpeachable signal. Don't get too comfy with the idea that we dodged a bullet here. The next shot might come from a howitzer. It is unsatisfying to describe market behavior by saying stocks expect one thing and bond expect another. But, oddly, the crazy volatile market reactions we have been witnessing reflect the imposition of cautious investor reactions.