But the market s vibrancy is also its chief hazard. The churn and unpredictability of small business makes it a bucking bronco to ride. Less than 15 percent of all small business produces 90 percent of the new jobs. Only 3 percent of all small businesses grow 20 percent or faster. Even among the relatively established Inc. magazine 500, only 1 in 3 will show growth three years in a row and only 1 in 12 will show growth five years in a row.
Big companies have a heck of a time targeting small business.
It s tough to tell in advance. The regional Bell companies get 95 percent of their non-basic services revenues from 5 percent of their customers. They don t know for sure. In fact, picking prospects based on past performance may be exactly the wrong way to do it. The single best predictor of growth within the next two years is a decline this year, one top analyst told me, adding, The single best predictor of failure is stability.