As a minimum adaptive measure it is suggested that future schemes should be designed to be capable of having defences further raised or enhanced. It should be noted that present defences may have reached or be approaching the end of their design life by the 2050s, at which point replacement or remedial work would have to be considered anyway. A review of observed long-term trends in Scottish flooding and flood related variables to allow recent perceived changes in flood behaviour to be set within the longer term context. Assessments of how projected climate change may affect the likelihood of both river and coastal flooding in Scotland. A review of the levels of protection offered by existing Scottish flood prevention schemes, together with consideration of potential adaptations to design standards for the future.
Catchment wetness is likely to increase and is suggested with relatively more confidence.
In terms of coastal flooding only changes in mean sea-level are suggested to be modelled with a reasonable degree of confidence. No quantitative guidance as to how tidal surge or wave behaviour might be affected is offered. Flooding trends Long-term trends in temperature and sea level are apparent. The case is at yet unproven as to whether the recent intensification of river floods is part of a longer-term trend or not. Prevailing weather conditions appear to have changed on a decadal time-scale but no direct link to global warming has been shown.