Looking ahead, most business contacts in the Third District expect an easing in growth, although retailers predict an improvement in sales. Manufacturers forecast only steady rates of shipments and orders, on balance, during the next six months. Retailers expect an upturn in sales once the spring shopping period gets under way. Auto dealers foresee a nearly steady rate of sales. Bankers anticipate slower growth in business lending as a result of greater caution on the part of lenders as well as borrowers.
Bankers expect mortgage lending to decline.
Manufacturing Third District manufacturers reported moderate increases in shipments and new orders in April. While only a few producers of nondurable goods posted gains, most makers of durable goods saw increased demand for their products. Rising shipments and growth in orders were relatively more common among producers of lumber products, fabricated metal products, and industrial and commercial equipment. Overall, order backlogs and delivery times at industrial plants in the District have been steady. Firms in a wide range of manufacturing industries continue to report difficulty finding and retaining both skilled and unskilled labor.