We must remember that the high-volume segment, memory, has a slower projected shrink rate. The trends for EUV favor evolution of optics in this decade. Irrational exuberance combined with easy access to capital can cause a region to over-invest in capacity, a pattern we've seen all too often. So much of the industry's growth depends on Pacific Rim countries. A random event or political instability could cause an area to sink into recession.
China can be a power for good or evil.
For sure, it will become a growing new player in the global IC market, adding significantly to the demand for equipment and materials. I expect China to manage its capital markets and investments mainly for domestic demand, avoiding another over-investment cycle driven by nationalistic trade policies. Of course, Wall Street will blow hot and cold. The mood seems to shift daily. But given the strong fundamentals supporting chip demand, I don't expect prices on Wall Street to control the outlook for the semiconductor industry, unless there's a major crash.