Capacity growth is expected to continue. In 2000, there were almost 1 million TEUs of vessel capacity ordered for delivery between 2001 and 2004. Most of this new capacity is in post-Panamax vessels. In the next 12 months, it is estimated that almost fifty new vessels of 5,500 TEU size will be delivered. Many industry observers expect new capacity to exceed trade growth.
Demand is driven by the economy.
Transportation is often seen as a leading indicator of recession and recovery. The slowdown in consumer spending may therefore dramatically impact the import trade. Some economists wonder whether the United States is experiencing a new business cycle. Under the traditional model, economic growth continued until inflation raised prices whereby the Federal Reserve System would raise interest rates and bring the economy to a recession. The Fed would then cut interest rates and the cycle would begin anew.