Oil wealth may potentially contribute into this situation. This kind of situation is a classic breeding ground for fundamentalism and it does not take an Iran to produce it. Azerbaijan could quite conceivably face this scenario unless its government becomes more open, people s needs are met and their grievance are allowed to be expressed. China s need for oil will be growing faster than any other country in the world in the next decades, due to its rapid industrialization. China is already involved in the Caspian, because of its recent oil deals with Kazakstan and Chinese willingness to bring a pipeline from the shores of the Caspian to the Yellow Sea in China.
China now threatens Russia geopolitically.
While Russia is trying to fend off other Western players in the Caspian, China is already there, planning to take energy out while also not transiting Russia. So, at a time when the West is trying to avoid pipeline domination by Russia or Iran, China is already providing an alternative route. This is a major stake for China. Secondly, China is increasingly a key economic provider to the Central Asian region states in terms of consumer goods, way ahead of Russia. So Russia may find itself not only economically, but also politically upstaged in the Central Asian region, as it gravitates towards a Chinese economic orbit.