Canary plantings may drop this spring, given that wheat prices look better than they did last year, while canary prices are about the same. However, about half the canary grown in Canada is planted on the idea that prices will break out one of these days, rather than being penciled on current markets. That keeps plantings up in spite of flat market prices. Canada produces 85 percent of the canary seed in the world. Hungary and Argentina are our main competitors.
Argentine canary goes to Brazil.
It should be on the market now, but Brazil still is buying Canadian product, so harvest must have been delayed by wet combining weather. More and more farmers are contracting oats before they're planted. This has been beneficial the past three years of bear markets. Deferred futures have been consistently showing carrying charges over spot prices. As time passes, those deferred futures slide toward the flat spot market.