Whether we can actually get the carryover that low will depend on the amount of early harvested corn and sorghum from the South, and on the maturity of the Midwest corn crop. Recent developments helping to reduce corn use include cutbacks planned in the broiler industry, recent announced cuts in corn processing by major processors, and recent rains in parts of the southern plains pasture and range areas that will help keep feeder cattle out of feedlots. Some analysts place the reduction in spring and summer corn processing at 80 to 100 million bushels. If these reductions materialize, they may reduce the needed cut in feeding of corn to livestock from a previously expected 22 percent cut to a 16 percent cut from last year. Corn feeding for the first half of the year is indicated to have been down 12 percent, before the announcement of cuts in broiler production.
Brazil is believed to have sold some corn for export, for the first time in several years.
Other developments affecting summer corn feeding will include the rate at which Southern Hemisphere feed grain exporters move their May-June harvest into world markets. Also, in early April, trade sources indicated China appeared to be taking steps that could lead to summer corn exports of up to 1.5 million tons. Recent world corn prices have been above Chinese prices. Exports of 1.5 million tons would be far below the approximately 12 million tons of corn China exported two years ago. Grain traders will watch these various developments closely to see whether record prices are causing further reductions in use of U.S. corn.