In the event one or more of these problems translated into a catastrophic accident should the Juragua reactors come on-line, the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration has estimated that the prevailing winds could expose much of the U.S. eastern seaboard or southern United States to dangerous levels of radiation. By some official estimates the number of Americans that could be affected by a Cuban-originated radioactive plume may be as high as 50 to 80 million. These realities are now being acknowledged, at least implicitly, by the Russians. In point of fact, it seems improbable that a genuinely new facility will emerge given the immense investment already made in the Juragua complex . The Center for Security Policy has long believed that the very viability of Castro's despotic regime is contingent upon finding a way to address Cuba's severe economic problems associated with its reliance on imported oil supplies.
Blackouts plunge most of the country into darkness on a weekly basis.
Arguably, to an extent even greater than Bulgaria, the Cubans must satisfy not only domestic energy requirements but also those of Canadian, Spanish and other investors who might otherwise decline to underwrite development of Fidel's infrastructure and tourism sector. The Cuban despot is second to none, certainly not the Bulgarians, when it comes to blackmail. It is entirely possible that, like the Bulgarians, Castro sees an opportunity to exploit Western concerns about nuclear safety as a desperately needed tool for leveraging concessions from the United States. Not since the abortive Cuban missile crisis of 1962 has Fidel had the means for engaging in nuclear blackmail against this country. It seems possible that at no time has he felt a greater need for such a capability than now as his regime totters toward collapse.