Political and economic development on both sides have had consequences for prospects of eventual reunification that are different from those imagined when cross-strait commerce began in earnest in the late 1980s. The United States and others interested in maintaining good relations with both sides need to grasp the paradox. Under U.S. pressure, Taiwan has moderated its efforts to secure international recognition of its de facto independence. The retirement next year of President Lee Teng-hui will, in Beijing's view, reduce Taiwan's separatist tendencies. It also requires that Beijing show a moderate face in advance of the presidential election in April.
China needs a resurgence of Taiwan investment, which has fallen sharply.
Taiwan's opposition Democratic Progressive Party has been downplaying its pro-independence views as it bids for the electoral middle ground, and seeks to avoid more splits in its own ranks. However, the movement toward closer de facto links has stalled. And almost no one in Taiwan now regards unification, even under the loosest form of the ''one country, two systems'' formula, as even a remote possibility over the next decade. The political reasons for this are obvious enough. On the mainland, political development has essentially frozen.