The introduction of competing technologies in tandem with the issuance of more operating licenses complicates the competition. Many speculate that at least one more mobile license will be granted, probably to China Telecom, which may have the option to choose CDMA or buy Unicom's GSM networks. Jun Wu interprets the government's go-ahead on CDMA for Unicom as a way to potentially speed the deployment of 3G systems in China. The government is finding ways to move to 3G as quickly as possible. In short, GSM's current mobile monopoly in China could crack three ways as we approach 3G. Both Intrinsic's Jun Wu and GWcom's operations manager, Bill Li, agree that CDMA introduction will invigorate their wireless application industry, as carriers increasingly compete with one another by making their own decisions from an array of technology choices and application partners.
Carriers see that the market is huge, especially for value-added services.
Qualcomm, which first began negotiations for entry into China back in 1994, has at last gained entry. Unicom, faced with the challenge of building a nearly outmoded 2G CDMA network from scratch in a market that already has 65 million GSM subscribers, appears undaunted. And China's mobile telecom industry, despite its vagaries, may be the most promising on the globe.