The error is to imagine that somehow we have caused or contributed to the crisis, an error to which the Clinton administration seems particularly prone. This has led to a counterproductive policy that has exacerbated the military tension it was designed to reduce. Beyond understanding this much, however, we can do little more in preparation for the possible storm other than to ensure that our own policies in Asia are hedged, even as we maintain communications with China and keep strong alliances with states whose values we share, whose politics are democratic and whose economies are free. The prospects are not all grim. Strong constituencies exist in China and in the Communist Party for such policies.
Abrupt change is characteristic of the Chinese system.
The writer is a professor of international relations at the University of Pennsylvania and director of Asian studies at the American Enterprise Institute.