I feel your economic analysis of the situation is correct but your conclusions very hard to digest for the following reason. No financial advisor would tell you this is reasonable. These returns on investment are laughable at best. The cost of production is not the problem and not where we should focus our attention. The truth about the current market conditions is that all producers are currently losing money.
Cattle are currently a poor investment, period.
By not clearly stating the truth you are putting the onus on the producer to do a better job. The truth is that owning cows in today's market doesn't make economic sense. Once we all stop fooling ourselves substantive change may be possible. I need to clarify the data behind my comment. Earned net returns varies dramatically from herd to herd.