The model is quite sensitive to small changes in temperature, and consequently, any errors in temperature. A representative case may be considered, therefore, at approximately 36,000 ft. Standard temperature at 36,000 ft. MSL is approximately -53.5 deg. centigrade. This model can and will now be evaluated with actual observations in an effort to test it for reliability.
Citizens are welcome to submit their own observations for inclusion if they so desire.
The value of this model is to identify those meterological conditions which are supportive of conventional contrail formation. It is important that any analysis of these two processes be appropriately and separately understood before any mutual connection is to be made. A history of observations is available on the aerosol report page . This model is in addition to that previously developed that predicts contrail dissipation times, as well as a model to predict the distance behind the engines that the contrail is expected to form. The model presented will be modified, revised or further developed as circumstances require.