Cow slaughter has fallen below the same period a year ago. Heifer slaughter is expected to decline later in the year as heifers were shifted to the breeding herd and away from the feedlot. Heifer slaughter through the first half of 1997 has been 7.3 percent higher than in 1996, and steer slaughter during the same period was 4.8 percent lower. In addition to heavier weights, large slaughter numbers are expected during late summer and early fall which will push total supplies higher. The 1996 calf crop was 1.6 percent smaller than in 1995, but steer slaughter was down 4.8 percent the first half of 1997 .
Conditions are also right for a marketing backlog.
Supplies are large, weights are increasing seasonally, close-outs are in the red, and October futures are higher than current cash prices. The outlook for higher prices ahead may encourage feedlots to hold cattle to heavier weights. Such a backlog would push cattle prices lower. However, prices are expected to move lower before higher prices return in late fall. Feeder cattle prices will be influenced by feedlot profitability and expected feeding profits given by cattle futures and corn prices.