However, as long as the shape of such forcing is well captured, our method would not be sensitive to the overall magnitude of radiative forcing change. Table 1 shows the contributions of the different predictors in Method1. The regression equation is built up in a stepwise manner, with predictors incorporated in order using the results of an F test. The importance of each predictor is shown by the standardized regression coefficient. This is the coefficient estimated when both predictor and predictand index are standardized.
Bold numbers show the skill of the complete regression equation.
Correlation 1950-1999 HF Corr. The second predictor, ENSO HF 1, contributes most to interannual skill. It is negligible in the 2001 forecast. Jack-knife forecast skill from the orthogonalized predictors and the NCEP NINO3.4 predictions. Table 2 summary performance of jack-knife forecasts using orthogonal predictors and using NCEP NINO3.4 SST forecasts as a predictor.