Retail sales and real estate were the main beneficiaries of the manufacturing boom last year, as confident workers spent their paychecks on cars and homes. People are buying homes for cash. I see it at all ends of the economic spectrum. That's the burning question among economists these days, as well as on Main Street. Increasingly, analysts are predicting that rising interest rates will bring a modest slowdown in growth to Sonoma County by the end of this year or early in 2001.
Anecdotal evidence suggests the red-hot real estate market is already one degree cooler.
But no one expects a dramatic change, and halfway through 2000 the power of last year's runaway economy is undiminished. Of the 19 industry segments represented in the Top 250, seven saw their revenue decline. That includes groups like wholesale trade, hotels, insurance, mortgage lenders, agriculture and food manufacturing. Some segments reported reduced work forces, too. But others, especially manufacturing, added enough workers to more than make up for the job losses.