The Succulent Karoo hotspot, located on the western edge of South Africa and Namibia, is one of the most vulnerable of the world's 25 biodiversity hotspots. Using climate change computer models, scientists predict that warming and drying trends could devastate the area's remarkable plant diversity. Some of the world's most striking and unusual plant species thrive in this arid region, splashing the spring landscape in brilliant oranges, yellows, purples, and pinks. Plant collectors around the world trade many of these plants as ornaments, and several plants have recently been discovered to contain medicinal properties.
Biodiversity hotspots are biologically rich areas that are under extreme threat.
Together, they contain more than 60 percent of terrestrial biodiversity on just 1.4 percent of Earth's land surface. The Succulent Karoo is the first hotspot we have modeling results for, and already we see serious cause for concern. Scientists at the National Botanical Institute, the University of Cape Town, and CABS have been studying the possible impacts of climate change on the survival and distribution of South Africa's indigenous plants. They predict that the Karoo, which has the richest succulent flora in the world, will be eliminated in all but tiny patches possibly as early as mid-century if present emissions trends continue. We are currently working with policy makers to determine how to cope with these changes.