If the balance is maintained, Russia's arsenal will decline, to perhaps 1,000 warheads or less. But if the U.S. blunders ahead with a national missile defense, Russia could maintain an arsenal of 2,500 warheads or more, largely on accurate, multi-warhead missiles equipped with countermeasures to defeat any defense. A second, longer-range version has never been tested. The U.S. and North Korea are currently holding talks about ending the Korean missile program, and while those discussions proceed, North Korea has agreed to halt its flight test program. Iran and Iraq are much further away from even North Korea's nascent capability, and only acquiring a missile from elsewhere is likely to give them an arsenal any time soon.
China is the biggest question mark in the security question.
However, pushed by U.S. pursuit of missile defense, they have already stepped up their modest modernization program, and may deploy more accurate, multi-warhead missiles on land and at sea. Rodman goes on to say the Russian Ministry of Defense agrees about the new threat. The greatest missile threat to the United States comes from Russia, and Moscow has made clear that maintaining the ABM Treaty is required for the verified reductions in Russia's nuclear arsenal to continue. Thus, contrary to what Rodman implies, the Clinton Administration is pursuing talks with Russia on modifying the Treaty to allow the limited national missile defense the U.S. now envisions. Rodman asserts agreement is likely, and the results of this weeks meeting between Albright and Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin are encouraging, but agreement is far from assured.