In recent years, Mexico also has become an important U.S. supplier of processed foods, including tomato paste and beverages, such as fruit juice and beer. From the U.S. side, grains have typically been the largest export item. Exports of dairy, livestock, and poultry products have grown the most rapidly in recent years. Making an assessment of the impact of the agreement on the U.S. agricultural sector is made difficult by the fact that Mexico is reforming its agricultural sector. Our empirical knowledge about how the agricultures of the two countries are connected also limits the rigor of any empirical estimates that might be made.
Agriculture is a significant beneficiary of the agreement.
Gainers on the U.S. side are expected to be producers of grains, oilseeds, and livestock. Those expected to lose are those producers who compete with Mexican fruits and vegetables. These losses are expected to be concentrated in Florida. It should be noted that these estimates of who will gain and who will lose from the agreement, and by what relative amounts, are based on static models. They do not take into account the increases in income that will come from the reduction in trade barriers.