A decrease in convection along the ITCZ from its model climato-logical average is suggested. Ensemble mean, together with maximum and minimum, rainfall anomalies, all variance-inflated, for each of the gridded areas depicted in Figure 1, plus for the three standard African rainfall indices, are listed in Table 1. Validation of large-scale precipitation fields in general circulation models. Global Precipitation and Climate Change, M. Desbois and F. Desalmand, Eds., NATO ASI Series, Vol. Correlations for simulations over July to September 1979-1993 between ensemble mean rainfall and the Hulme gridded rainfall set over 10 x 15 blocks.
Bars indicate inflated range of ensembles and the median.
Non-inflated ensemble mean precipitation forecast anomalies for July to September 1997. Negative contours dashed.