2b is the same, but for the Nino 4 region. Current forecasts call for cool to normal SST anomalies until well into next year. Previously, we speculated that this broadband phenomenon along with positive SST anomalies extending to 150E could eventually result in further eastward shift of the warm west Pacific, a shift which Linear Inverse Modeling is not designed to predict. The cooling effects from the recent MJO suggest the eastward shift of warm SST's may be delayed. Forecast skill is discussed in the March 1997 issue of this Bulletin.
Current forecasts call for cool to normal anomalies in the tropical Atlantic.
However, recent forecasts have been too cold by about 0.2C at a lead time of six months. Random forcing and forecasting using Principal Oscillation Pattern analysis. Prediction of Nino 3 sea surface temperatures using Linear Inverse Modeling. The optimal growth of tropical sea surface temperature anomalies. Prediction of tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures using Linear Inverse Modeling.