Over the past decade, the heightened skill of warning meteorologists and the advent of the WSR-88D Doppler radar network have certainly improved the overall probability of tornado detection. Through applied research, training, and advanced technology, ECFL warning meteorologists are now equipped to perform a more thorough assessment of local tornado threat situations than ever before. The result is a diluted warning text whose effectiveness is hindered when attempting to invoke a desired public response. The aim is directed at increasing the effectiveness of the initial warning through a situational approach based on forecaster confidence but classified by tornado environment.
Care is taken to never minimize a tornado threat, only to properly define it.
Nonetheless, forty two people died. Although many factors contributed to the high casualty count, NWS Melbourne has identified the effectiveness of the TOR warning text as an area where local service improvement can be made. Valuable post-event insight has been incorporated into both situational definitions and associated CTAs to create improved warnings. Their approach defines tornado warning situations based on forecaster confidence. Although threat assessment based completely on forecaster confidence represents notable improvement, one variation is to first consider the environment.