You tell us to avoid all the options except the one direction Java is going that has the least potential. Microsoft is competing nicely with Sun there. But we should avoid the market where MS is forced to extend Sun's standard. Even nicer, MS could easily find itself on the other side of shoe. The more fight the merrier.
Competition is good for the customer.
As long as a company has to look over it's shoulder, we'll get better, cheaper, faster software and machines. Made you look.