Until there is clear evidence of a sharp reduction in weekly exports and crushings, old-crop soybean prices appear likely to be relatively strong and potentially very volatile.
Analysts use the soybean stocks reports as a check on the previous year's crop estimate.
This year's March 1 stocks hint that the 1996 U.S. soybean crop may have been slightly over-estimated, perhaps by 15 to 30 million bushels or 0.6 to 1.2 percent. In a more typical year, such a small change would have a relatively small impact on prices. However, this year's Sept. 1 U.S. soybean carryover stocks already were projected at a very low three-week supply. Last year's Sept. 1 corn carryover dropped to a 2.6-week supply, Wisner said. A slightly smaller 1996 soybean crop estimate could lower the soybean carryover to 110 to 120 million bushels unless utilization drops more rapidly than expected so far, he continued.