Our model is based on a regression of state level vote outcomes on 2nd quarter GDP growth, the Democratic vote share in the current national Gallup poll, and the state Democratic vote share in the 1996 presidential election.
Coefficients vary across all variables depending on the poll date.
Among many important caveats, we note that we currently are awarding all electoral votes from Maine and Nebraska to the projected state winner. In fact, Maine and Nebraska permit proportional representation based on results at the Congressional District level.