U.S. hurricane indicates whether or not the eyewall of the hurricane made landfall in the United States. Although our group at FSU has been issuing seasonal hurricane forecasts since 1993, the earlier forecasts were issued only for the number of intense hurricanes. Table shows the December forecast probabilities from the Poisson model over the past 8 years. The bold numbers indicate the verification. Performance record of FSU's December major hurricane model.
Bold number indicate the actual number of major hurricanes.
Climatology is based on the years 1886-1996. Past performance does not guarantee future success. Our research began as an academic exercise to compare statistical schemes used at CSU with different algorithms. Special thanks go to Richard Murnane and Anthony Knap in this regard. Partial support for this work comes from the RPI and from the U.S. National Science Foundation.