The conveyor belt phenomenon is measured by long-term change in North Atlantic sea surface temperatures and salinity. Warmer temperatures, prevalent from the late 1920s to the late 1960s, and more salinity produce a more intense season. Since 1994, North Atlantic sea surface temperatures have been warming and ocean surface salinity is higher. We think the Atlantic will be moving into a more active era for the next 20 years or so. And once the climate signals are really good, the number of landfalls goes up disproportionately.
Big storms have the best climate signals.
Gray said the new model's predictions will be incorporated into the Colorado State research team's annual pre-season hurricane forecast, issued each December and updated in early April, June and August, but that the data offers only very general information. But this is a statistical model, and these predictions are general. The major damaging winds don't cover a very big area, no more than 100 miles or so of coastline. Really intense winds cover even less, say 50 miles. Even in an active year, the probability of being hit by an intense storm is really low.