This estimate assumes existing vehicles and highways modified by addition of automation. Eventually about 5 times better utilization could be achieved using vehicles and highways specifically designed for automation. In addition to the space advantage it is reasonable to believe that automated guidance systems could safely operate at top speeds substantially higher than the 70 mph typical in the U.S. today. The data from Virginia is a reasonable approximation of this model. The consequences of simply extending this curve indefinitely to the right forty involve a staggering toll of deaths and injuries.
Automobile accidents are now the leading cause of death in certain segments of the population.
Currently, approximately 45,000 people die and 1,000,000 are injured in the US. annually. These rates have historically been approximately constant as improvements in the system are offset by increasing traffic. Future medical advances in the cure of diseases can be expected increase the relative future impact of accidents on public health. To the extent that we could replace safety related driver functions with technology, an automated system could eventually be very substantially safer than the existing system in that we could bring technology to bear directly on a problem that is now virtually completely driver controlled. Vehicle automation could therefore easily be the greatest public health advance of the twenty-first century.