Han Zhenshe, secretary-general of the Korea Research Center at Beijing's Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, says Kim Jong Il, the rarely seen leader of North Korea, will formally assume his country's top post later this year and does not want tension with the U.S. to provide a distraction. They are unlikely to succeed. Presidents Kim Young Sam and Clinton spoke privately at the Asia-Pacific Economic Conference forum in Manila two months ago. And if the American leader underestimated Seoul's strong feelings about the submarine incursion before that discussion, he had no doubts after. For its part, Seoul is perhaps most interested in remaining an active, involved player.
Analysts there fall into three broad camps when they discuss the South's strategy toward the North.
Pragmatists, who favor the status quo, urge Seoul to be assertive and not succumb to pressure from either the U.S. or China. These analysts believe that the primary aim of the two great powers is stability on the Korean peninsula, which in time may translate into better business prospects. In Seoul, however, which remains within minutes of any air attack from the North, the status quo is not loved. A second camp would like to see government authorities cut off North Korea and, if it falls apart, pick up the pieces. According to proponents of this scenario, Korea faces a historic opportunity for unification that should be seized by actively encouraging the North's failure.