When prices are trending down, you should only sell. While this important principle is well-known, traders violate it surprisingly often. They are looking for bargains so they prefer to try to buy at the very bottom or sell at the very top before new trends become established. Winning traders have learned to wait until a trend is confirmed before taking a position consistent with that trend. It's a lesson I've had to learn and relearn practically every year.
All traders have the tools to find trends.
That's what makes it especially frustrating when we go contrary to the trend or when we try to pick tops and bottoms. The alternative to trend following is predicting. This is a trap that nearly all traders fall into. They look at the commodity trading problem and conclude that the way to be successful is to learn how to predict where markets will go in the future. There is no shortage of people willing to sell you their latest prediction mechanism.