However, this is not always the case. Research strongly suggests that with a reliable prediction of ASO sea surface temperatures, certain decision makers might be able to derive benefits. However, we offer three reasons for decision makers to exercise caution in the use of this information. First, predictions are always uncertain, and a significant error in the prediction of SST might lead to costs rather than benefits, compared with a situation with no prediction. Second, these relations, while significant, provide information with which to hedge, but should not be used to bet an entire stake.
Climate patterns change.
There is always uncertainty as to how closely the future will resemble the past. Third, this information will likely be of most potential value to sophisticated decision makers who can finely balance risk using probabalistic information. Judicious use of these environmental controls in statistical models has produced skillful experimental seasonal hurricane forecasts by Gray et al. The strong relation of Pacific sea surface temperatures and Atlantic hurricane damages in the United States offers a tantalizing opportunity for the direct use of scientific information about the ENSO phenomenon to society s benefit. It also offers an opportunity for a closer connection of scientists and decision makers to the enrichment of both.