As IP goes, so goes optical. There can be no more of a baseless and naive position in all of networking than the view that optical networking is exploding while Cisco earnings fall short. We really need to assume that a Cisco shortfall translates to an industry shortfall. Later this spring or early summer, we can expect to see a major shakeout in the optical market, and a lesser one in networking overall. Cisco has no strength there and needs some.
Cisco has no strength there, either.
Because service switches are a kind of router successor product, Cisco may resist even admitting to their value. Broadband Internet won't make money. Wireless Internet won't make money. Non-Internet IP services already make money, as do frame relay, transparent LAN and other corporate data services. The first step in accomplishing these goals is to admit that the Internet and connectionless routing alone is not the answer to our market prayers.