Extrapolating from today, we can postulate a continuing genuine commitment to Chinese nationalism, a leadership unwilling to compromise on core sovereignty issues especially Taiwan, and continued suspicion and resentment toward the United States as the key impediment to the realization of China s strategic vision. China will continue to pursue an alternative vision of a regional security structure. The U.S. s continuing role as the sole superpower will be the major factor in China s strategic calculus. U.S.-PRC relations will continue to be characterized by cycles of cooperation and competition. The key for the United States is to ensure that whenever competition is the predominate feature of relations with China, that the competition take place at the diplomatic and rhetorical level and not spill into overt military competition.
China is in many ways already a rival in East Asia.
But being a rival is not the same as being an enemy and it would be a mistake for US policy to assume a hostile predisposition. The best orientation for US security policy would be to ensure that the United States continues to be appreciated by the vast majority of the countries of East Asia as a stabilizing presence. Emulating Teddy Roosevelt s formulation to speak softly, but carry a big stick would be a good way to do that.