Thus, managers may create forecasts that suggest allocating resources in a favorable way. Hence, they rationally avoid the use of these models. 3.8 Allow Participation Unlike SMM's, judgmental forecasts allow managers to participate in the forecasting process. 3.9 Are Political Forecasts often come from parts of the organization not under the direct control of the manager. Consequently, managers may believe that outside forecasts reflect someone's political agenda and may substitute their judgmental forecasts.
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Information A forecast may be used to probe others. In some cases a manager may want to avoid responsibility for a forecast and the resulting consequences. All of the above points suggest that managers are rational is preferring judgmental forecasts over those of mathematical models. In some ways this liberates the forecasters and forecasting systems from the tyranny of neglect.