Consistent with NCVS data, we assume that if presented with a convenient choice, both black and white thugs will select white victims over black. For simplicity, we assume single-victim incidents. The approximation will be seen to hold over the useful range of the function. To a high degree of approximation, the size of John's neighborhood will not change the likelihood of him becoming a victim. The results are compared in the table below.
Agreement is excellent throughout the range of racial composition.
It may be estimated from NCVS data. In 1994, blacks committed 2,802,538 violent crimes. The probability, F B , that John is victimized at least once in a year is plotted versus the black fraction of the neighborhood. Beginning insidiously, the preying of black upon white is barely noticeable until the community is about 20 percent black. At that point, the probability of John being attacked by a black is still only 0.02.