Risk analysis combines probability descriptions of uncertain variables and computer simulation to characterize risk associated with the outcome. By including all possible inputs into the analysis and weighing the probability of occurrence of each, risk analysis elevates the debate from the validity of LCCA results to deciding best public policy. Without the aid of simulation, a spreadsheet model will only reveal a single outcome, generally the most likely or average scenario. Spreadsheet risk analysis uses both a spreadsheet model and simulation to automatically analyze the effect of varying input on the output of the modeled system. 2 Table 1 summarizes the economic inputs used by each study participant.
All participants currently use a deterministic procedure.
It should be pointed out that Ohio incorporates a sensitivity analysis of discount rates into the analysis. Cost Treatment Kentucky Real costs for both initial construction and future rehabilitation activities are based on average unit bid prices. Traffic control costs are estimated based on projects of similar scope. Nevada Includes real costs for functional and structural overlays and traffic control based on the tabulation of bids received from contractors for similar projects. North Carolina Real costs for initial and rehabilitation construction.