It does seem likely that most big organizations will have their problems fixed by next year. Those who fail to do so will be able to predict shutdowns in advance, and therefore most computer crises that actually happen will be totally unanticipated, local and brief. Most of them can be corrected by paying out unbudgeted sums to replace old software with new. After that, there may be a lot of unemployed computer programmers. But if thousands or millions of people draw out large sums of cash, there could be bank collapses.
Banks survive on the law of averages keeping everybody from demanding cash at the same time.
Even if the Federal Reserve can cover these cash shortages, you can't be sure of the corresponding banks in, say, Bolivia. American banks could be in sudden trouble if foreign lending systems get tangled up, and indeed that could happen in Japan and Russia without any millennium trouble. After all, if everyone starts to hold up the payment of bills until the crisis is over, somebody is going to need to take out some big loans. Inc. All rights reserved.