At the same time, people are searching for meaning and purpose in their lives amid the forest of information and material abundance. They can create futures and mold our attitudes and thinking and shape how we live, work and relate. Leaders will have to be aware of how they might affect education and public schools and be prepared to respond to them. The second factor, predetermined elements, is easier to define because we can see evidence of them. They are inevitable, cannot be altered and will influence the future.
Demographics are one such predetermined element.
The third component of scenarios is the critical uncertainties, those unpredictable issues that ride the waves of emotion, opinion, intuition or serendipity. These are the things that drive planners crazy because they are not always rational or logical, and they are unexpected or cannot be calculated. Critical uncertainties affect us, at times, like lightning bolts out of the dark. For example, consumer confidence cannot be predicted because it is a critical uncertainty spawned by perception, belief and emotion. Another example is the sudden and unanticipated resignation of an influential school board member over a matter of principle.