Look for good odds. Look for opportunities where the loss potential is small in relation to the profit potential. For example, if a commodity is trading near its recent historic lows, it could mean a long position has great upside potential in relation to possible loss. Or if it is trading just above government price support levels, there may be an opportunity for a low-risk trade. Watching the trading range of a commodity over a year or several years helps you have the perspective to help determine the odds.
Bull markets die of overweight.
There's an old stock market tradig rule that says bull markets can fall flat of their own weight when prices get top heavy. So, be especially sensitive to bearish news if you're long. Florida's harvest is slowing and is expected to be smaller than the 194 million boxes estimated by the USDA last month. Since this was a revision, this news may add support to the falling commodity. There has been speculation on what will be the outcome of the next OPEC meeting March 23rd in Vienna.