As the prediction exceeds the apparent range of the model climatology, no confidence should be placed on the absolute value of the predicted anomaly. Validation of large-scale precipitation fields in general circulation models. Global Precipitation and Climate Change, M. Desbois and F. Desalmand, Eds., NATO ASI Series, Vol. Figure 2 . The ensemble mean predictions are created using observed SST and are inflated so that the variance of the predicted rainfall is equal to that of the observed rainfall in the 1979-93 period for each region.
Bars indicate the range of the ensembles and the median.
The ensemble prediction for October to December 1997 is shown at the extreme right. Non-inflated ensemble mean precipitation forecast anomalies for October to December 1997. Negative contours dashed.