Let's further assume that if these people are sufficiently controlled or imprisoned, they will be prevented at least temporarily from committing crimes and criminal activity will abate. That is, until the underlying forces generating criminal behavior spawn yet another generation of criminals. If these assumptions are reasonable, we should look at alternative explanations for the fall in crime-all of which indicate this is a temporary trend. First, consider the number of people we are imprisoning. By the early 1990s, this number had risen to 367 per 100,000-a 46 percent increase.
Containment is a surefire criminal enforcement mechanism, but a temporary one.
There are about 87,000 teenagers and adults currently imprisoned in New York State. Most will be released over the next 10 years. Second, consider that much of the city's criminal activity during the past 10 years has centered around drugs, particularly crack-cocaine. Drug trafficking is virtually a free market. As in any business, the strongest of the drug lords grow tired of tolerating competition, and opt to take over disparate operations.