As Derrick McElheron reports from Taipei, analysts believe recent military threats from China may be boosting the chances of the ruling party candidate Lien Chen. Wednesday marks the start of the official 10-day ban on opinion polls until Election Day. Final surveys show Vice President Lien Chen, main opposition party candidate Chen Shui-bian and independent James Soong running neck and neck. But Tim Ding of the public opinion research firm Gallup, Taiwan says the island's tense relationship with Beijing could be the deciding factor in the outcome of the election. Last month Beijing issued a White Paper, a policy statement, threatening to attack the island, if it indefinitely postpones reunification talks with Beijing.
China considers Taiwan a renegade providence and insists the island reunite with the mainland.
Mr. Ding says in the current atmosphere, Vice President Lien Chen, who advocates diplomatic dialogue with Beijing, is becoming more attractive to voters. I think in the last 10 days, stability is a very important factor. If stability means peace in the Taiwan Strait or peace with China, Lien Chan will get credit for that kind of effort. On Monday, Beijing apparently sought to reinforce that view, with a scathing propaganda attack on Mr. Chen in the leading Chinese military newspaper, the Liberation Army Daily. Despite the close race, another poll shows up to fifty percent of Taiwanese voters believe Vice President Lien Chan will win the election.