The authors use data interpreted from aerial photography for 135 counties that grew by at least 25,000 persons and by at least 25 percent between 1970 and 1980. Although there was a large percentage increase in urban uses, only a small decrease occurred in agriculture, range, and forest uses. Increases in marginal residential land uses, offset by decreases in marginal nonresidential land use, resulted in the nearly constant marginal urban land consumption rate. But each new household consumed only 0.37 acres of land. The highest marginal rates of land conversion occur in the fastest growth, lowest density areas that are newly urbanized.
Consumers prefer and can afford larger residential lots on less expensive land at the urban fringe.
Urban land consumption, however, was only one-half the rate in metropolitan counties compared to nonmetropolitan counties. New urban development consumed 1.28 acres per household in non-metropolitan counties, but only .49 acres per household in metropolitan ares. These trends did not change from one region of the country to another. The net effect of changing household number, household characteristics, and economic constraints on demand for land is likely to mean less conversion of land for urban uses in the future. Attempts to control growth locally may simply shift growth to outlying areas.