The findings show that there are surprisingly large risks of death and great differences between the ways smoking kills people in different countries. The study concludes that in the mid-1990s smoking was already responsible for about 12 percent, or 0.7 million, of all adult male deaths in China, plus about 3 percent of all adult female deaths, 0.1 million. Two out of three Chinese males now become smokers before age 25. Few give up, and about half of those who persist will be killed by tobacco in middle or old age. If present smoking patterns persist, at least 100 million of the 340 million Chinese males below age 29 will eventually be killed by tobacco.
China has about one in four of all smokers in the world.
One hopes that these studies will help many Chinese to quit smoking and others never to start. Even in middle age smokers who stop before they have serious disease avoid most of their risk of death from tobacco and stopping before middle age is even better. The World Bank sees tobacco as a particularly difficult development challenge, with annual deaths from tobacco expected to increase significantly over the next three decades. Seven in ten of these deaths will be in developing countries, and half of tobacco deaths will occur during people s productive middle lives, age 35-69, with an average loss of 20 to 25 years of life. The World Bank recognizes the harmful health and economic effects of tobacco use globally, and, since 1991, the Bank s formal policy is not to lend for tobacco production, processing, or marketing.