If in those constituencies there were local religious factors driving a swing against Labour, the votes of Indian people further complicate the picture, as more of them voted for the Conservatives than ever before. Dr Saggar's research suggests that low ethnic minority registration is not such a big issue as OBV suggests. They are turning their back on the election itself and not on the democratic process. Mohammad Anwar, of the University of Warwick, studied five constituencies at the last election. Among Asians the trend is downwards over 20 years, because of the generational change taking place.
All sides agree that fielding ethnic minority candidates makes a difference.
Labour in the last parliament had nine Asian or black MPs, and another two look poised to be elected this time. The Conservatives may have one. Ashok Viswanathan of OBV says alienation is fuelled by underepresentation at Westminster. The number one reason for the low participation is the lack of black faces in high places - parliament doesn't look like them, speak like them, or come from where they come from.