Hesitation in Washington or a decision to retreat prompts the collapse of the Taiwanese stock market, currency and economy. The Taiwanese establishment quickly accepts whatever deal Beijing is offering - and that isn't all. US failure to support its ally persuades other Asian powers that they, too, must accommodate the rising China. Japan makes a deal with Beijing for security and autonomy, in return agreeing to close all US bases. A reunified Korea, swept up by nationalist sentiment, also expels the Americans.
China effectively dominates the entire region.
But it also imagines another China whose economy has crumbled and whose communist regime is ended by a military coup. But Marshall and his teams do not simply pull scenarios out of thin air. In 1996, the Office of Net Assessment commissioned a laborious translation of hundreds of books and journal articles by mid-level Chinese military officers showing that Beijing's future military leadership sees US military power as waning and plans to exploit weaknesses in US weaponry and supply lines should conflict occur. The Pentagon analysis of Chinese military writings was disclosed in September 1997 to the US Senate Intelligence Committee in a hearing on intelligence challenges posed by China. Pentagon analyst Michael Pillsbury told the committee that the Chinese studies acknowledged that China's forces remained decades behind those of the United States.