And victory means radically cutting down the power of the other two contenders. Of the three the U.S. has the greatest power stakes in the region and therefore the most to lose. In 1945 the U.S. won huge stakes when it smashed Japan. Today U.S. power is symbolized by the mighty Seventh Fleet whose military range extends from San Diego across the Pacific and Indian oceans to Mombasa in Kenya. But that power also now faces the first serious threat in East Asia since 1945.
China is richer, more powerful and more confident than it has been in the last two centuries.
The U.S. also sees a threat from Japan. Not only is Japan richer than the U.S. and technologically as powerful, but Tokyo is also gaining self-confidence the way it did a century ago. Then it defeated China in 1895, followed by Russia in 1905, having already forced the proud British to accept an alliance with it in 1902. Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto clearly hopes to repeat that feat with Clinton. Thanks to these changed power relationships, both the Chinese and the Japanese now find themselves at the gaming table with far bigger stakes than in earlier decades.