A variety of conflicting factors will shape labor's power. And although growing labor unrest will almost definitely force government policymakers to heed workers' interests in the design and implementation of economic reforms, more than six decades of subjugation to the State have left Soviet trade unions unsure of how to assert themselves as an independent political and economic force. Thus far, however, the official trade unions have been reluctant to condone strikes carried out by the coal miners and other local groups, including transportation workers in Kiev and Sverdlovsk. This may change as economic reforms in the Soviet Union take a heavy toll on workers, as they have in Poland. One factor buttressing trade union strength may be political reforms which increase the importance of elections on the local, republican and national levels.
Candidates competing for votes are likely to seek the support of an organized labor movement.
Perhaps more significantly, combined populist and nationalist appeals of the sort made by Yeltsin may offer the labor movement the means to overcome its fragmentation. A clearly defined nationalist movement will provide a source of cohesion. Labor unions are too divided to play a significant role in linking opposition movements among different nationalities in the Soviet Union, but the political dynamic is different in the republics.