Analysis of fossil pigments is complete, and preservation was uniformly excellent. Drought prediction modelling is ahead of schedule because we have used pre-existing paleoclimate analyses of Moon Lake ND to develop our time series procedures. Space limitations do not allow us to describe all our new data and modelling in any detail. Briefly, though, our drought prediction analyses clearly demonstrate that modern risk assessment models do not adequately capture the true frequency, duration and intensity of past droughts, and suggest that insurance models underestimate future drought risks, especially considering the accelerating effects of global warming on drought occurrence. Preliminary analysis of our SK site suggests that similar drought risks may apply to other prairie regions.
Data demonstrate that fossil data record agricultural droughts.
Monte Carlo testing demonstrated that each variable explained an independent and significant portion of the variance in past community composition. Together, these analyses demonstrate that paleoclimatic reconstructions based on diatoms should accurately record the major changes in climate that influence production of economically important crops, particularly wheat.