The US-based Commodity Research Bureau concurs with that assessment. The bureau's price index indicated this month that after an unprecedented rise in mid-1996, prices have been dropping since the Asian crisis, until they slowly began to rally in the middle of this year. But oil and metals account for most of the rise in prices. Analysts attribute that improvement to a growth in demand in Asia, particularly Japan, added to the cutbacks agreed by producers. The increase in demand for oil in turn drove up demand for steel and aluminum.
Copper is another case in point.
Demand for copper fell after the economic meltdown in Asia, which affected the entire economy of Chile, whose chief export is copper. Agricultural producers have borne the brunt of the economic downturn as well. But the weather phenomena influencing today's prices are precisely what makes farm observers fear that today's price rally could be tomorrow's slump. ''The rough times have passed, and July's dismal outlook has changed,'' said analyst Ricardo Baccarin, with the Argentinian consultancy Panagricola. He warned, however, that celebrations were not in line yet. Analysts say that means the only thing to do is wait for even stronger recovery before farmers dare to expand their crops, without fears that a new crisis of excess production lies just around the corner.