Mexico, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela are three of the world's biggest oil producers. Their accord helped push crude oil futures above dollars 26 a barrel this week, the highest level since January 1991. At the start of 1999, oil prices were about dollars 10 a barrel. As a result of the increase, Indonesia expects that its crude oil prices will average dollars 19 a barrel in the financial year through March 31, way above an earlier forecast of dollars 10.50 a barrel, according to the mines and energy minister, Lieutenant General Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. This would provide a revenue windfall of about dollars 2.64 billion to the government, he said.
Analysts say similar contradictory forces are at work with Indonesia's exports and imports.
But Indonesia has to buy abroad to obtain certain types of oil for processing in its refineries, as well as refined products those refineries cannot produce. As a result, its third-quarter oil imports were 128 percent higher than in the first quarter. Still, Mr. Tan said, Indonesia's trade balance had gained from the rise in oil prices, by about dollars 1 billion since February. IDEA said that, on this basis, it was very likely that Indonesia's trade surplus would amount to dollars 25 billion this year, up from dollars 21.3 billion in 1998.