More on that later. Certainly, however, recent economic numbers show that prosperity is looking a bit long in the tooth. Car, computer and home sales have slowed markedly. Industrial manufacturing activity has contracted slightly for three of the last four months. Early holiday sales look to be slower than last year.
Consumer confidence is faltering.
Jobless claims are on the rise. Estimates of future business profits have been halved. Other major equity indexes have fared relatively better, but still down on the year. Official bear market or not, the roughly one hundred million members of the new Investor Class who own shares have not fared well this year. What's more, as a result of low inflation and high investment returns, the consumption share of household wealth has been declining for twenty years.