Anxiety is mounting that even if China doesn't pull the trigger after this election, it may strike in the future. Despite years of effort, Taiwan has not been able to use its wealth to buy a safe, secure space outside of China's orbit. A diplomatic campaign to win recognition abroad has met with meager success. So have concerted attempts to make its economy less dependent on the mainland. And even though Taiwan has won loyal fans in the U.S. Congress and armed itself to the teeth, the island remains dangerously vulnerable to a rapidly modernizing military force across the Taiwan Strait.
China is years away from being able to invade Taiwan.
But it is acquiring the capability to cripple Taiwan's economy with missile strikes. The best Taipei can do is play for more time, build its defenses, and hope a more palatable government comes to power in Beijing. Just a few years ago, hopes were rising that Taiwan could secure much greater breathing room. President Lee Teng-hui's ambition to win more international space was based on the idea that a more benign China would not stop Taiwan from quietly going its own way so long as it did not declare independence. Lee also hoped to buy allies in Southeast Asia, Latin America, and Africa.