Uncertainty is in about the 2001 economic forecast. The booming U.S. economy of the late 1990s powered Asia's recovery from the 1997-98 crisis, and neither foundering Japan nor Europe can provide an alternative engine. Many experts in Davos think the United States is headed for a slowdown, not a recession. But the Davos crowd is sobered by its failure to foresee the U.S. downturn, just as no one here foresaw the Asian economic crisis coming. This is a salutary reminder of the unpredictabilities of a globalizing world.
Demonstrators are out.
Security at the center is tight, and Davos has banned globalization protesters who marched last year and trashed shop windows. But, in the most interesting development in Davos this year, social consciousness is in. Protest group leaders and representatives of nongovernmental agencies are on the panels. When I first attended Davos in 1996, panels on the downside of globalization were sparsely attended, mostly by spouses of executives or academics. This year, the opening plenary featured Indian and Brazilian ministers telling a pretty full house that the West must open its markets to Third World agriculture so poor countries can benefit from open markets and globalization.