Further nuclear tests may be linked to development of command systems. They are embarking on a gamble. A new round of tests might lead to a reversal of the process of easing of sanctions, in evidence over the past few months. This could set back the prospect for arms control and disarmament negotiations, although it will make the CTBT's entry into force more likely. The most worrisome consequence of fresh tests would be exacerbation of regional suspicions and rivalries.
China is certain to respond with alarm and hostility to India's tests.
India's policy-makers today seem to be banking on the new tension that has emerged over the charge that China stole a nuclear warhead design from the US in the 1980s, and the Sinophobia of America's extreme right. Domestically, a new exchange of militant rhetoric about nuclear prowess may weaken the welcome momentum towards reconciliation that Indian and Pakistani leaders established last month. Their Lahore Declaration commits both to 'abide by their respective unilateral moratorium on conducting further nuclear test explosions'. It is hard to see how either sides 'supreme interests' are so threatened by recent 'events'.