Bankers generally said overall loan growth continued during November but the pace of growth slowed. Consumer and real estate lending remained on an upward trend, but commercial and industrial lending was flat. Looking ahead, Third District business contacts see further improvement, but they do not expect strong gains. Manufacturers forecast increasing demand for their products that will lead to some stepped-up hiring in the next six months. Retailers forecast about a 5 percent increase in the dollar value of sales this Christmas season compared to a year ago.
Auto dealers expect sales to continue at their current rate.
Bankers expect consumer and real estate lending to continue moving up, although they anticipate some slowing in the growth of consumer lending, especially credit cards, as they implement somewhat tighter credit standards. They expect business loan volumes outstanding to remain near current levels. Manufacturing Manufacturing activity in the Third District moved up slightly in November, according to reports from plants in the region. About three of ten of those polled noted gains in orders and shipments while two of ten reported declines. Most of the drops were reported by manufacturers of durable goods, while producers of nondurable goods generally experienced improved business in November compared to October.