Texas The Decision Analyst U.S. Economic Index for March shows an economy in steep decline. Decision Analyst s measurement of the U.S. economy takes place the last 10 days of each month, and is based on an Internet survey of several thousand households. The Decision Analyst U.S. Economic Index peaked in the spring of 2000, declined to a slightly lower level in the fall, and then dropped dramatically in the first quarter of 2001, as shown below. The steep downslope of the Economic Index over the last three months indicates a very high risk of at least one or two quarters of negative gross domestic product growth.
Consumers say that the level of business activity is falling, and corporate hiring is declining.
Fears about losing one s job are also increasing. All of these negative signals plus the speed at which they have declined point toward a recession in the U.S. economy. The Decision Analyst U.S. Economic Index is based on an Internet survey of more than 5,000 households balanced by gender, age and geography. The survey is conducted over the Internet during the last ten days of each month, and then the Index is immediately calculated from nine different economic measurements, using a sophisticated econometric model. The result is a snapshot of current U.S. economic activity, as seen through the eyes of consumers.