In Cote d'Ivoire, the largest Cocoa producing nation in the world, the main Cocoa harvest runs from October to March, which is roughly five to six months after the wet season. Traditionally, around harvest time cocoa prices fall as supply begins to hit the market. From the 9th trading day of September to the 3rd trading day of November, Cocoa prices have declined in 12 of the last 15 years. Given the massive blow the World Trade Center and Pentagon bombings have dealt to consumer confidence, the demand for Cocoa and the willingness of Cocoa processors to buy supply could be seriously tested.
Cocoa is a luxury item.
Though life without chocolate would be difficult, it is a luxury item and consumers may cut back. With the stock market finishing its worst week in history, it is only logical Cocoa processors may begin to curtail production in anticipation of a softer economy. Other luxury food items, like high end cuts of beef, have already plummeted along this similar logic. Techncially, Cocoa prices are running up against some serious resistance. Also, potential resistance exists at the May and August highs in the 1047 to 1080 area.