There are about 26 parties. With MMP, everything is tactical. If they get in they will form a coalition with National, who might then stay in power. Of course they can then vote Alliance with the party vote. National people will vote national, and Act will lose out, and so then will the National Government.
Any result is possible.
They are just new, and hopefully will be soon gone. The most hated party of all is the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party, who I have worked for, but will not vote for. This election is exciting. I am thinking about it to an extent that is hugely out of proportion to it's actual importance, and so are most people I talk too. I sometimes even imagine that the whole underclass has become infused with a bit of enthusiasm.