Results are reported for both the complete cross-section of registered voters and for the subset of likely voters, identified by the Gallup likely voter scale, which asks seven questions about voting habits. Regardless of whether you consider likely voters or all registered voters, George W. Bush enjoys a comfortable lead in Louisiana as of October 22 . Predictably, black voters overwhelmingly favor Al Gore. All election predictions are based on a series of what-ifs , so we have computed three scenarios, based on different assumptions about the undecided vote and turnout. Any of the assumptions can be disputed, but the basic point is that, even in the most pro-Gore scenario, Bush leads by three points.
All scenarios represent opinions at the time the survey was taken.
White undecided registered voters are allocated in the same proportions as the white decided voters. White undecided likely voters are allocated in the same proportions as the white decided voters. This contrasts to the national pattern of greater loyalty of Democrats to their candidate. One fourth of white Democratic likely voters either identify as conservatives, favor using the surplus for a tax cut, or disapprove of Clinton, any of which could incline them to vote Republican. In those contests white Democrats and white independents voted proportionately more Democratic than today.