The other surprise was a decrease in domestic crush. US ending stocks are now expected to increase to 345 million bushels. Thursday's market reaction to the reports was sharply lower prices. Old crop futures months closed eleven to more than thirteen cents lower, near the bottom of the day's trading ranges. This sharp price decrease follows only very limited price strength on positive export news a few days ago, which doesn't suggest a market looking to rally.
Basis also continues to be very weak.
In spite of an expected strong total demand, a weak basis suggests a weak cash supply and demand situation. Cash demand doesn't appear ready to help pull prices higher. The normal seasonal price pattern is for lower prices into February and then a spring rally, but the current situation doesn't offer much hope of a significant seasonal rally in the spring. Short of unexpected demand, about the only remaining fundamental factor left to turn price around is the weather. If the South American crop does come in as expected, market attention will turn toward US crop production prospects as our production season begins.