Predicting an uncertain future This article is full of typical confusions about Baysian probabilities and using past data to predict the future. We know that we've had three during the past century, and there's little reason to think that we won't have another pandemic. But we absolutely cannot predict when it will occur. You can't predict an earthquake, a hurricaine, a flu pandemic, or even an individual getting a cold. However, that doesn't mean that you know nothing about it's future probability of occuring.
Colds happen in the winter, earthquakes along fault lines, hurricaines in the ocean.
Don't look for earthquakes or hurricaines in Kansas. Tornados are unpredicable, but are more common in Kansas than Miami. The very fact that flu pandemics have occurred means that there is a probability of one occurring in the future. Same goes for motorcycle riders. This site is using the Basic Blog theme.