Real agricultural trade liberalization fails, developed countries continue to subsidize and protect their agricultures and poor developed countries still lack access to developed-country markets. Poor rural areas are left behind as democratization, decentralization and community participation run afoul of entrenched political and bureaucratic systems. The fruits of biotechnology remain primarily focused on temperate crops of global importance while public investments in agricultural research of relevance to the developing countries withers under fiscal conservatism. Agribusiness keeps ahead of them on the same path they are following now. Small-scale agriculture between the Tropics languishes, leaving these latitudes more dependent on external food supplies.
Agricultural activities influence the boundaries of forests and deserts.
The positive scenario would contribute to meeting all three challenges. Food production and rural incomes would rise for countries between the Tropics. Trade liberalization and continued policy reform would contribute to poverty reduction and improved incentives for the husbandry of natural resources. Disparities in income between rural and urban, rich and poor, would be reduced and greater global stability would follow. The consequences of the alternative scenario could be quite stark.