A recent study by government economists estimates that over 8 percent of workers nationally spend at least half of their first 10 post-school years in jobs that pay within a dollar of the minimum wage. That is about the same as the current portion of workers in jobs that pay near the minimum. This indicates that a sizable fraction of workers stay in jobs at or near the minimum wage for a significant period of time. Mounting evidence indicates that moderate increases to the minimum wage result in little, if any, employment loss. Many economists now agree that modest wage increases do not lead to large job losses.
Debate now centers on whether job losses exist or are merely very small.
5 Increases in the state and federal minimum wage from 1996-1998 brought the state's minimum wage sixty cents above the federally mandated level. Yet there is evidence that little, if any, job loss resulted. If minimum wage increases cause job loss, one would expect employment growth to be slower for groups with more low-wage workers after an increase in the minimum wage. However, the opposite was true in California from 1996 to 1999, during and just after the recent minimum wage increases. The employment rate grew by 1.8 points more for Latinos, 6.5 points more for adults over 20 years old without a high school degree, and .4 points more for teenagers as compared to the overall growth rate of 3.0 points.