This represents an 70-percent jump from the 159 physicians per 100,000 practicing medicine in America in 1970. Back in the mid-1960s, Ginzberg recalls, he argued that an increase in the number of doctors to 190 physicians per 100,000 people would be more than sufficient. By Ginzberg's standard, even taking into account the dramatic changes in the practice of medicine due to technology, today's number of doctors represents a vast oversupply. In regions where managed care supervises a large share of people's health care dollars, fewer doctors are needed. As managed care's share of the market grows nationally, the demand for doctors seems sure to weaken.
Anesthesiologists already find it difficult to get work.
A host of other sub-specialists ranging from radiologists to neurosurgeons also face a tighter labor market. This is bad news for medical schools, whose graduates in the past were virtually guaranteed employment and a high salary no matter what medical discipline they picked. Adding to medical schools' woes, the federal government is also considering scaling back its support for medical education. Never in the last 70 years has the financing of medical education seemed so up in the air. If such wrenching change comes to the medical education system, it will inevitably strike New York State hard.