Recent rumblings within the hospice industry suggest that this scary prospect is coming closer, perhaps even a reality in some markets.
Capitation absolutely is here.
Health plans are just now getting down to the smaller providers. A year ago I was involved in the first home care capitation contracts. The key is whether the hospice is asked to assume total risk for a covered population's terminal care without controlling the care plan and admissions, I'd say walk away. I'd also recommend putting parameters around the risk, through mechanisms such as risk corridors or stop-loss provisions. The contract is what should govern this relationship.