But the new administration's attitude towards a long-term Balkans deployment will differ significantly from its predecessor. Whether or not US troops withdraw in the medium term, the ambivalence of the American military commitment to Kosovo and Bosnia could be damaging. Bush officials' lukewarm support for the mission will feed into outright hostility in Congress. And although European troops already make up the vast majority of peacekeepers in both Bosnia and Kosovo, the possibility of an American withdrawal threatens to undermine the region's psychological security, as so clearly happened in Bosnia during the first 18 months of implementing the Dayton Accord. The European allies can and should argue against a US withdrawal, for the sake of NATO solidarity as well as Balkan security.
Balkan stability requires a transatlantic troop presence, especially for Kosovo.
Otherwise, both Serbs and Albanians are likely to exploit the inevitable transatlantic differences that would arise from widely disparate American and European roles. Moreover, withdrawing US troops from the Balkans would raise the question of why they were needed in Europe at all. However, in making this case, the Europeans should be careful not to make the problem worse. Instead, they should make their own, unequivocal commitment to stay for as long as necessary. The allies should recognise that the uncertainties of the US commitment are not just due to the new administration's policies.