There has been considerable concern that this shift in emissions would cause harm to downwind areas due to long-range transport of pollution. The authors find the resulting change in atmospheric concentrations and deposition of pollutants, and the change in monetized health benefits, are most unfavorable in the regions where emissions increase. In the East and Northeast including New York State, an area of particular concern, health benefits increase and deposition of sulfur decreases slightly as a result of trading. The reason is that the geographic shift in emissions away from more populated areas leads to a decrease in exposure to harmful particulates. Meanwhile, cost savings from trading represent about 13 percent of compliance costs in the No Trading scenario in 1995, and about 37 percent in 2005.
Banking has the anticipated effect of changing the timing of emissions.
Banking causes a reduction of up to 20 percent in 1995 in some states and a commensurate increase in 2005. These changes are small compared to the overall reduction in emissions, sulfur deposition, and human health benefits expected to result from the program.