If you believe that the world is in a recovery phase, with Asia coming back, and inflation is at least a possibility, then John Deere is the way to go. Send more grain to other countries, then prices go up, and farmers make more money. Your short-term, drought catalyst is also valid. Prices have been so poor for so long now, we are at least a year out from new equipment buying, but hopefully they won't go broke. Lucent has to worry about internal-funding issues and market demand for a product that will likely not be available for sale for 12 to 18 months.
Cisco has demonstrable skills effectuating acquisitions.
I don't believe that any company has ever been as proficient in assimilating targets, including preserving assembled workforces, etc. When Cisco gets sloppy or suffers a reduction in the value of its stock currency, there will be problems. I don't expect that to happen in the foreseeable future. Cisco is one of the few companies that has the ability to reinvent itself every 18 to 24 months. Cisco is not overvalued in my opinion.