The predicted shift from a predominantly young to a middle-aged and elderly population base will likely also lead to a rise in chronic diseases, such as cancer, heart disease, stroke, and mental illness. A second report, Removing Obstacles to Healthy Development, shies away from chronic diseases and returns to a more familiar theme, the heavy impact of infectious diseases.
Chile provides a prime example of the demographic transition outlined in the first WHO report.
In 1910, a typical Chilean woman's life expectancy at birth was 33 years, while today it is 78 years, a remarkable 45-year jump. This epidemiological transition from infectious diseases to chronic diseases is driven in part by the growing numbers of people exposed to risk factors such as tobacco, obesity, physical inactivity, and heavy alcohol consumption. One DALY is equivalent to one lost year of healthy life. This shift will be particularly dramatic for developing countries, according to the report. In India, for instance, deaths from chronic diseases are projected to almost double, from nearly 4.5 million annually in 1998 to about 8 million per year in 2020.