Sea-surface temperatures to the west of New Zealand are above average and are expected to trend towards average over the next few months. Large-scale pressure patterns are expected to be slightly above average, especially west of New Zealand. Air temperatures are expected to be average in the South Island and average to above average in the North Island, especially later in the period.
Average rainfall is likely in many places.
However it may be slightly wetter than usual in the eastern North Island and slightly drier than usual in the west and south of the South Island. The bar graphs shown on this page can be interpreted as an indication of how confident we are about our forecasts.