Experience with communist regimes, however, suggests that exactly the opposite is the case. It is only insistence on the fulfillment of strict conditions in return for concessions that is able to promote change. The Jackson-Vanik amendment played a key role in facilitating the massive emigration of Jews from the Soviet Union because it was not lifted and the Soviet authorities knew that it would not be lifted until they made convincing progress in the areas of emigration and human rights and therefore had an incentive to change their policy. In the Vietnamese case, the waiver of the Jackson-Vanik amendment could only send the wrong signal to the Vietnamese government and Vietnamese society. As the Vietnamese economy falters, the Vietnamese leaders again face the choice between maintaining tight internal security and introducing wider reforms.
All indications are that they have made the decision in favor of security.
The waiver of the Jackson-Vanik amendment now can only encourage the Vietnamese leaders to think that they can continue the oppression of their own people and still reap the benefits of advantageous trade relations with the West. Vietnamese communism was victorious because it deceived and manipulated the Vietnamese people. It is for this reason that the present Vietnamese leaders are so afraid of free emigration and freedom of speech. Because of their efficiency in stamping out opposition, the forces inside the country which stand for human rights are enfeebled. But they could become influential if political liberty were established in Vietnam and they were allowed to compete for power freely.