The good times are not over in the U.S. just yet, says Gail Fosler, chief economist at The Conference Board, the New York-based research and networking organization. Fosler, voted the top forecaster by The Wall Street Journal in 2000 and 1999 for the accuracy of her views, says the U.S. economy remains strong despite widespread fears of a recession. But, she told Asiaweek's Alexandra A. Seno, don't write a happy ending yet. This would be consistent with what appears to be inventory correction. I look at consumer confidence by way of verification.
Consumer confidence is divided into present situation and expectations.
What caused confidence to come off its aggregate historic highs has been a deterioration in expectations. That is usually due to shock events like higher gas prices or the election. But if you look at the present situation, it is only a hair off its peak. You typically get deterioration in people's appraisals of the present before you get a slowdown in the economy. I believe that this economy is much stronger than is the current consensus in the market.