Professor Peto and colleagues expect the epidemic to peak around 2020 and then decline. Mesothelioma deaths will total about 250,000 by 2034. The highest risk will be among men born around 1945 and 1950. About one in 150 of all men aged around 50 in Western Europe will eventually die of mesothelioma. The risk is of course much higher among men who worked with asbestos.
Asbestos is a fibrous, heat resistant insulating material.
Professor Peto described as a particularly dangerous material. In a study published in the British Journal of Cancer the researchers described how they predicted future death rates from the illness based on past trends in Britain, Italy, France, the Netherlands, Germany and Switzerland. The high number of cases of mesothelioma in men born around 1945-1950 reflects the large amounts of asbestos used in the 1960s and 1970s when they were beginning their working lives. He said the danger to men born since 1955 is not yet known. Many buildings still contain asbestos.