Analysts say the real reason for Mwila s expulsion was his announcement that he would seek the presidency next year. Analysts said that examples of politicians or officials who feel out of favor with President Chiluba was prevalent in Zambia, a poor Southern African country of 11 million people. This kind of undemocratic treatment will continue until the elections, said Alfred Zulu, an election watchdog. It is clear intimidation and the situation is expected to worsen before the elections, added Ngande Mwanajiti, leader of Lusaka-based regional human rights group, Afronet. President Chiluba, who in reaction to the claims of analysts said that he has personally assured Mwila that he would not be arrested, but that he was powerless to stop a search and other police action if they believed a crime had been committed.
Analysts say that freedom of assembly and association in Zambia has been gradually diminished.
Political parties often are denied permits to hold rallies. Last month, the opposition UPDN party won a parliamentary by-election in a rural constituency without addressing a campaign rally. Police for lack of permit dispersed their first scheduled rally, while the second was aborted after MMD supporters claimed the grounds for a meeting addressed by President Chiluba. Human rights groups have also complained that the government also uses the contentious Public Order Act to harass opponents. Under the Act, police can detain anyone seen as a danger to public safety.