Another threat from the US over the medium term is obviously that of increased protectionism. This can reasonably by expected on past form to produce protectionist pressures in the Congress. Now, obviously many of the countries of Asia are using the US market as the export destination where they send their products to work their way through this crisis. If that market gets tougher, if some sensitive sectors get more difficult to penetrate, they're in trouble. I'm sure I don't need to go through them again, but there are potential shocks from Japan over the next probably at least two years.
China is a potential source of shocks.
Well, the problem is that the rosy expectations of a short-term Chinese future go against a couple of inconvenient facts. One is that the Chinese economy has been in a sort of autonomous slow-down now for nearly three years. Inflation is zero and by some measures is now going backwards as negative. One reasonably good proxy for economic activity in China is the profits of listed Chinese companies, listed in the Chinese markets as well as Hong Kong. Over the last two years they've collapsed by 80 to 85 per cent.