As it is, no breakthroughs are likely until after the Communist Party's own congress in mid-September. Beijing has kept to its hard line. With a thin majority in the legislature, the KMT may have to seek accommodation with its rivals to govern effectively. Mutual loathing between the KMT and the New Party leaves only the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party as a potential coalition partner. Such a move would naturally spark alarm in Beijing.
China has more pressing concerns.
Lee leaves soon on a trip to central America, and Taipei has relaunched efforts to win a U.N. seat. Taiwan has suffered setbacks too. Last week, Caribbean island nation St. Lucia decided to switch recognition to Beijing. Ironically, as China fights to deny Lee diplomatic victories he can use to boost his party's sagging popularity at home, Beijing may effectively be edging a weakened KMT into a political alliance that would make rapprochement with the mainland even more difficult to achieve. All Rights Reserved.