There are a variety of mistakes we make in thinking about beliefs Representativeness bias Availability bias Illusory correlation Self-fulfilling prophecy False consensus effect 6. The biases described by Gilovich suggest that we are more susceptible to false alarms than to misses. But Strauch remind us that we are also susceptible to misses. Pascal reminds us that the cost of a miss can be very high. Analogy between Pascal's wager and hot hand.
Believers argue that it does.