The island's own military on the highest alert. Two U.S. nuclear-carrier task forces steaming into the vicinity. Tough, defiant talk out of both Beijing and Taipei. And everything building to a crescendo on March 23, when Taiwan holds its first-ever direct presidential election. In a word, no.
Basic facts belie the smoke and mirrors.
The great bulk of the PLA remains concentrated in northern China, where it has long been deployed, despite Beijing's recent rapprochement with Russia. It takes relatively few planes, ships and soldiers to look menacing on television, a lot more to actually seize and hold territory. When America's Adm. Chester Nimitz contemplated invading Taiwan in 1944, he reckoned he needed 300,000 troops to dislodge about 30,000 Japanese defenders. Using a comparable ratio, China would today have to hurl 3 million troops across the strait. It can barely move 30,000.