Far from promoting political liberalization, denial of MFN could produce a backlash as Chinese leaders, focused on a post-Deng struggle for power, try to demonstrate their nationalist credentials. Moreover, while it is hardly realistic to expect Chinese political culture to change overnight, there has been political change. Changes in criminal proceedings are leading to greater assurance of due process, while civil law changes have meant that, of the tens of thousands of Chinese who sue their government each year, some two-thirds win outright or gain a settlement. It will be some time before high profile dissidents can avail themselves of such reforms, but these reforms will lead to limits on the arbitrary power of the government to the benefit of most Chinese. At municipal, provincial and national levels, parliamentary bodies that long were mere rubber stamps have begun to assert ever greater claims on power at the expense of the party, rejecting party nominated candidates for high office and party-drafted laws.
China is a long way from democracy.
But so were Taiwan and South Korea 20 years ago. The ongoing political changes in China are creating the basis for the kind of gradual transformation from authoritarian to accountable government seen elsewhere in East Asia. As was the case with other Asian countries, these developments are primarily internally driven, but American engagement supports and accelerates them. Denying MFN would undermine the essential effort to encourage China to be a responsible member of the international community. It would obviously hurt our economic interests.