By night, we invest in sensible index funds. Unfortunately, pro-index fund stories don't sell magazines. The track record of a money manager has no reflection on future performance. Every reputable study of mutual fund performance over the last 30 years has found that there is no reliable way to know when, which, or even if superior performers from the past will win again in the future.
Details are in the two tables at the bottom of the page.
Also, the average investor holds a mutual fund for 3 years, according to a Dalbar study. Note the increasing randomness of the rankings. At first, the ten funds follow about the same path. But as time passed, their performance became less and less alike. After six years, three funds had bounced around and back into the top ten percent, while two had bounced around and into the bottom ten percent.