Stability in agriculture obscures wrenching change within the sector due to prices in a given commodity, changes in public policies, changes in weather or shifts in technology or consumer tastes. At the same time Libbin sees growth for New Mexico agriculture, he doesn't see any dramatic expansion of agricultural lands. Libbin conducted a study that showed onions to be New Mexico's most profitable crop in the long-term. His report was followed by a banner year for onion producers. Pecans continue to grow in acreage as transplanting technology allows large trees to be thinned from orchards and moved to new fields.
Competition looks stiff for New Mexico grains, cotton and some cattle enterprises.
Dryland grain enterprises in the High Plains are vulnerable to dry years, and the drought could accelerate the transition of dryland farms to grass and grazing land that was started by the Conservation Reserve Program, Libbin says. But the premium has shrunk 60 percent, the boll weevil has invaded the state, and Monsanto is developing new cotton varieties that may allow growers in other states to capture New Mexico's markets. Beef cattle feedlots are on the decline in the state, and the range livestock industry faces constant pressure to relinquish use of National Forest and Bureau of Land Management lands. The livestock industry still dwarfs crop enterprises and is the most evenly spread through-out the state. More than that, says Fowler, head of NMSU's Range Improvement Task Force, the livestock industry forms the core of the economy for rural communities across New Mexico.