There is a very real chance Estrada may be removed from office and that Vice President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo will take the top job. If so, the United States may be on the cusp of a new strategic relationship with the Philippines. Estrada has circled the wagons, denying the charges and hiring a legal team. The Philippine Congress is now preparing for an impeachment. An impeachment is likely - Estrada's party only controls half of the House.
Conviction is less likely, but definitely possible.
Ten of the 24 members of the Senate belong to Estrada's party, enough to block a conviction. But if two Estrada allies defect, and the rest of the Senate votes with the opposition, then Estrada is gone. If Estrada leaves office, Vice President Arroyo will become president for the remainder of Estrada's term, and security relations could become stronger between the Philippines and the United States. The U.S. military withdrew from Philippine bases in 1991, and subsequent presidents have fostered a nationalist spirit within the populace. Estrada focused the military's attention on the Muslim rebellion in the southern Philippines rather than potential foreign threats.