Note that there is a wide spread of hurricane activity between individual years within each 14 year cold and warm grouping. The average of NINO 1-2 and 3 SST differences are shown in the right column. Using this methodology, we can estimate the amount of hurricane activity that should have occurred in 1997 had all other non-ENSO seasonal influences been neutral. A straight line is extended between the points of the two averages of hurricane activity and the differences in the strengths of the two average ENSOs. Estimated ENSO influences on named storms.
All deviations are positive.
Above average hurricane conditions would have resulted with a NTC of 128. This gives an NTC of 174. And some ENSO forecasts for 1997 anticipated cool east Pacific water temperatures. We estimated more subtropical cyclones and fewer tropical systems for this year. We predicted warm SST anomalies in the north and equatorial Atlantic.