Yet this scenario is only marginally more plausible than the previous one. It is true that Taiwan is highly vulnerable to missile barrages. While the island has modern air defenses, it has not been able to obtain the U.S. Patriot anti-missile missile. But even after rocket attacks, many of Taiwan's defenses would survive to beat off any follow-up assaults. If the Tiananmen crackdown looked bad, imagine the reaction should Beijing begin hurling rockets at Taiwan cities like Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein lobbed scuds at Israel during the 1991 Gulf War.
Conventional assaults are one thing, but missiles are another matter altogether.
A much more plausible stratagem is outlined by Lin Yu-fang, one of Taiwan's top defense specialists. This would be part of a larger strategy to scare away foreign investment, causing massive capital outflow and emigration. If China were able to maintain the pressure for several weeks, Lin goes on, Taiwan would suffer a sizable and speedy outflow of capital. That would have a strong psychological effect and compel the leadership here to accept at least some of the mainland's terms. But success could tempt Beijing to bolder moves.