The information about roster continuity is utilized in both handicapping and non-handicapping contexts. A final score of a football game is such a complex confluence of events some random, some predictable - and it is this complexity that makes handicapping such a challenging and rewarding hobby. Attempting to isolate individual measurements and statistics that contribute to a measurable outcome can be extremely frustrating. Even when a theory is correct or applicable, a hundred other random events may mask the validity of the handicapper s hypothesis. It is for this reason that it is important to examine theories like the returning starters theory very closely to confirm their validity, and their value to a gambler.
Confirmation can only come from viewing large samples of unbiased data over a period of time.
This is why so many of these high returning starter teams populate the early season polls. To carry this a step further, improving teams generally fare well against the pointspread. Therefore, if a bettor is able to identify a team that is likely to be better from one season to the next, there is potential to find a betting value there. Again, football is an extremely complex sport, so performance improvements and declines can come from a huge number of sources in a football team. In theory, if we look at a large enough sample, the bad luck occurrences that negatively affect our hypotheses will be even with the good luck occurrences.