In sum, a major new stimulus will be necessary before there is any substantial change in Chinese nuclear force posture. Currently, there is no consensus in China on this issue and views are evolving which are amenable to change. Japan is China's 21st century threat, and China will not permit a repetition of history with Japan. China remains a believer in the efficacy of raw power politics. Taiwan is China's key foreign policy concern.
China has a poor understanding of how and why other nations see China as a threat.
China believes is has a great deal of clout in the United States because it sees the United States as dominated by commercial interests. At the same time, the United States is hard to gauge because of its propensity to use force. China in the post-Deng era lacks a strategic vision, and Jiang Zemin lacks the political stature to convey a cohesive view of policy in the new world order. China will be a significant player in world affairs but in an incremental fashion that is hard to predict. The United States will likely have a hard time influencing China.