A three-tiered system has been devised within the United Nations Department of Humanitarian Affairs to identify where potential crises are most likely to erupt and their humanitarian implications. It feeds information to UN and other humanitarian bodies about where crises could occur to enable speedy responses. From Concept to Practice'. It was written for a conference organised by the University of Maryland, and was due to be published in an edited volume in January 1998. Over the last four years, the UN DHA has been working to turn early warning from a sound concept into a series of activities with practical application.
Crises are numerous and have complex implications.
First, a definition of 'early warning' is required. Then one needs to determine how it can be used to initiate early and effective action by the UN and the humanitarian community. In 1996, the refugee population was 13.2 million globally with a further 20 to 25 million internally displaced persons. To make matters worse, the same political and military factors that contributed to the outbreak of violence frequently hampered relief efforts. The international community has increasingly been called upon to prevent emergencies, instead of reacting after they have erupted.