Before Christmas Howard was riding high. The situation could alter a few times before the election. But it's hard to see it getting much better before it gets quite a bit worse. Once governments get into troughs, it takes a lot of effort to get out. Even in the good times late last year some in the Howard camp expected there would be a period of leadership speculation during 2000 as the party asked itself, rhetorically, whether Howard was the best man to lead it into the next election.
Current events make such speculation more likely at some point.
Not that people around the Government think it would go anywhere. But if leadership chatter broke out, it would add an element of instability. Howard's Tuesday party room and parliamentary performances heartened the backbench. In the House, his deft use of Kim Beazley's muddle-headed suggestions on National Textiles headed off what could have been a bad fall on the first parliamentary day. Even when National Textiles fades, Howard can probably never live down the impression that his brother's firm, for whatever reason, has a deal that others haven't.