The U.K. and Germany, among others, fear that the U.S. could meet much of its Kyoto obligations on the cheap by purchasing credits from Russia. Environmentalists caution against this. It will therefore fail unless it sparks efficiency and innovation to facilitate bigger steps in the future. Becker, of the Sierra Club, argues that trading is risky in no small part due to the U.S. government's inclination to push for a weak treaty. But that's hardly the only snare that concerns him.
Compliance is another issue.
As an example, Becker points to a project in the Czech Republic, where a power station was converted from coal to natural gas, decreasing carbon emissions by 40 percent. But natural gas also causes climate change, and the Russian pipeline that supplies the station leaks so much that, although the plant could cash in on carbon credits, the project worsens climate change. Osram's Dr. Criens agrees that verification is not a simple matter. But he says that the light bulb project would be certified by an accredited firm, similar to the auditors that Wall Street relies on. And indeed, with or without trading, the whole climate change treaty will be meaningless unless countries can accurately calculate their emissions.