In at least eight countries in this region, between 20 and 35 percent of children under 15 have lost one or both parents. Children on the Brink 2000 finds that with few exceptions the number of children being orphaned will accelerate through at least 2010. In many countries, the proportion of orphaned children will remain exceptionally high until 2020 or 2030. One country studied was Zambia. Children on the Brink 2000 finds that in Zambia, currently 27.4 percent, or 1.2 million children, who are under age 15, are orphans.
Chronic malnutrition is widespread.
Orphan caregivers are predominantly poor women. Children in these households are significantly more disadvantaged than children in two-parent families, largely because women have less access to property and employment. The complete Children on the Brink 2000 will be released this fall. Children on the Brink 2000 presents new orphan estimates for the 23 countries studied in the 1997 report, as well as 11 additional developing countries. Many of the new estimates are lower than those reported in 1997 because Census Bureau demographers factored in reduced fertility rates for HIV-positive women.