All of this suggests the growth of economic activity in this country will moderate from the recent brisk pace. When the minutes of the December FOMC meeting were released in early February, the committee voted to shift from a tightening bias to a neutral stance on monetary policy. At this point, it is unlikely the Fed will tighten, unless the level of inflation accelerates. At the same time, they are unlikely to ease unless there is an increase in the unemployment rate. T-Bill rates are bond equivalent yield.
All figures are quarterly or yearly averages, rounded to one decimal point.
One of the most timely economic indicators available is the National Association of Purchasing Managers survey. The index for January fell to 52.4 from 53.1 in December. Since it is a defusion index, a reading of more than 50 means more purchasing managers see activity in the industrial sector improving than worsening. But the index is down from a cycle high in July of 57.5 which indicates the rapid pace of growth in manufacturing should slow in the months ahead. The component of the index that looks at exports plunged from 50.6 in December to 45.0 in January.