Prices rally on less than expected rainfall, dry weather forecasts or reports of crop stress. Prices also drop sharply with the forecast of even scattered rainfall in Brazil. This produces an uncertain price outlook and plenty of market risk for all of us still holding soybeans. The domestic soybean market situation isn't clear either. The '99 crop was large.
Demand is strong, but weekly exports have been variable.
It appears that the LDP has been claimed on a large part of the crop, much of which is still in storage without any downside price protection. Large movement of this grain could quickly depress prices. Hopefully, next week's USDA reports will shed more light on these factors. If you haven't collected the LDP, it still provides downside price protection. Decisions become much more difficult if you've already collected the LDP and are storing unpriced soybeans.