As many as 600 people died in storms and floods. But this is not the end of the story. Scientists do not know for sure how a rise in sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific can cause problems months later across the globe. But there is no doubt that the ocean can no longer be seen as merely a passive partner in climate control. Through a mechanism called 'teleconnection', scientists think that this, in turn, disrupts weather patterns thousands of kilometres away.
Disaster therefore strikes when the nation is least equipped to respond.
If we could predict El Ni o, vulnerable nations could prepare for floods or drought, while farmers could plant alternative crops, better adapted to the unseasonable El Ni o weather. This year, most of the apparatus is in place to monitor the tell-tale signs of El Ni o as it happens. An array of buoys stretching across the Pacific measures temperature both at the sea surface and down beyond the so-called thermocline, where the surface and much colder deep layers of water meet. This means that governments can be advised well in advance. Forewarned is forearmed Warnings from scientists are of little use, though, if they do not lead to actions by governments, farmers and others who are vulnerable.