All these movements would be easily detected. To be dragged into a conventional military confrontation would undo all Russia s plans at feigning weakness. All of the key indicators I see point to the Russians holding back until they are fully ready. You must understand that the Russians are inherently suspicious of US disarmament. They think the US must be cheating just like they are.
Criminal minds think alike.
We built our last MX over 10 years ago, and are disarming unilaterally. Further, the Russian are building huge underground nuclear bunkers and weapons production facilities in the Ural Mountains, clearly intended to function during a nuclear war. I will attempt to explain this US perfidy later on. Both Russia and China continue to protest against any US anti-ballistic missile system, even though such systems are purely defensive. It doesn t take a genius to understand that ABM systems only threaten someone who intends to launch ballistic missiles someday.