Macroeconomic projections in both baselines assume recovery in the Asian economies will continue and income growth in developing economies approach historical levels. Policy assumptions are also very similar with both baselines assuming a continuation of current policies. The only differences are areas where the Secretary has discretion to set the exact levels. USDA allows the adjustment beginning with the 2001 crop. Regarding technology, crop yield assumptions are also quite similar with only modest differences occurring by 2009.
Baseline projections are the result of combining mathematical models with the judgment of analysts.
There are a number of areas where differences and divergence of opinions can arise. The challenge becomes identifying those differences and the reasons for them. While there are many similarities in the numbers, there are also a few key differences worth exploring. The short-range differences appear to be associated with export markets. On the supply side, there appear to be substantial differences regarding the responsiveness of U.S. acreage as well as constraints on U.S. acres.