The crisis is being played against a background of growing strategic hostility between the US and China that has been foolishly fostered by Beijing and the Clinton Administration, both of whom sought a foreign diversion from domestic woes. China is deeply unwise to challenge the US in the Strait of Formosa. The last time China did so seriously, during the 1950's, President Eisenhower ordered the powerful 7th Fleet to destroy any Chinese invasion force headed for Taiwan, or the smaller Natio nalist-held islands, Matsu and Quemoy. China could storm fortified Matsu and Quemoy islands after heavy fighting. But a massive invasion of Taiwan would be a bloodbath.
China lacks both long-ranged air cover for an invasion, and sufficient amphibious capability.
Though modest in size and outdated, its air force and navy would still have the advantage of superior training, far more modern technology, deadly anti-ship missiles, and fighting close t o their bases. In spite of huge numbers of men and obsolete equipment, Chinese invasion forces would still be slaughtered - particularly if the US 7th Fleet intervened. In fact, the Chinese could face the same fate as Saddam Hussein's pathetically inept armed horde in Kuwait. China's best military option is a prolonged submarine blockade of Taiwan that would bring the island to its knees. This column, however, understands the US has given Taiwan assurances it will defeat any Chinese surface or submarine blockade.