And this a month before the summer driving season gets under way. With the spike in demand for heating oil just letting up after a frenzied winter, regular annual maintenance on the plants that turn crude into unleaded has stretched into spring, and crude is piling up on the shelves. Several East Coast refiners still have closings scheduled this spring. So the good news is, it's cyclical. The bad news is that the cycle, as we move from spring to summer, only goes up from here.
Consumer confidence is already on a slippery slope, having dropped in six of the past seven months.
Retail sales are off, unemployment is up, and whether or not the Fed's continued rate-cutting can provide sufficient reassurance to get the stockbrokers back in off the ledges, the average American will almost certainly be watching his wallet very carefully this summer. How carefully could be the difference between recovery and recession. And it could depend in part on gas prices.