Taiwan s democratisation means that it will become increasingly difficult for the island s people to contemplate reunification with the mainland. Beijing will not tolerate Taiwanese independence, and the prospects of a coherent US policy concerning the dispute remain distant. This means that difficult but crucial questions will have to be faced. In the long term, Taiwan cannot adequately defend itself against China without outside support, but this means relying heavily on the US and Japan. As the Taiwanese develop a more confident sense of their own identity, these questions will increasingly demand answers.
China too has choices.
If Beijing relaxed its veto on Taiwan s membership in international organisations, the island s politicians might be encouraged to make concessions of their own. By wrong-footing Taiwan s leaders, Beijing may stimulate a more serious debate about what the island s people really want. US policies will be inadequate in the long term. Strategic ambiguity alone cannot maintain peace in the Taiwan Strait, and there will again be times when Washington will need to be much clearer about what is acceptable. The absence of a coherent US policy towards China since the end of the Cold War has only exacerbated the problem.