We are not delusionally optimistic. By many estimates, the U.S. gross domestic product should continue to grow healthily over the next three years, while inflation should stay relatively flat. And, most economists agree, the classic symptoms of a recession just aren't evident. Unemployment remains low. The much-feared credit crunch hasn't arrived, and with banks still actively lending to their best clients, it shouldn't for now.
Consumer spending is down but still higher than it was during the first five years of the expansion.
If any of this changes, Alan Greenspan and the Federal Reserve Board have demonstrated a willingness to respond accordingly to ensure a soft landing. There are skeptics, of course. Janet Yellen, professor of economics at the University of California at Berkeley , predicts that technology companies will experience a much harder landing than the nation as a whole. He predicts a recession in the event of extreme worsening of any of those conditions. Mr. Roach's most useful insight may be the realization that IT has a cycle.