It's no different than forecasting the weather. Sometimes you're on the mark. Other times you're in the ballpark. Occasionally, you're simply dead wrong. Barring weather conditions that would impact hunter success, Game Commission bear biologist Dr. Gary Alt believes the 1998 bear kill could be precedent-setting.
Bad weather reduces hunter participation and effort.
A tracking snow, on the other hand, could elevate the harvest. Black bears typically begin entering dens to hibernate in mid-November as fall food supplies begin to dwindle and cold weather sets in. Nearly all are usually hibernating by late December. In years when forests have large acorn and beechnut crops, however, early denning is often delayed, so long as bears don't expend much energy foraging for food. Last year hunters shot 2,110 black bears, the state's third best harvest since 1915, when the agency began recording bear harvest information.