We're at neither end, but somewhere in the middle at the moment. It's probably safe to say that the peak of optimistic euphoria has been seen for this cycle. We have yet to hit the depths of despair. Long term market bottoms are fulfilled in despair, not at near all time highs being recorded in consumer confidence. This despair remains in our future.
Bear markets end when cash is recognized as a viable alternative asset.
In fact a preferred alternative asset. Prior bear market bottoms have seen mutual fund cash levels reach double digit levels. Sellers are washed out. We have just the opposite condition at the moment. Mutual funds are currently sitting on one of the lowest cash reserve levels in history.