Scenario SM analysis uses decision-logic to investigate and quantify market behavior after a higher monthly close or lower monthly close. Simply put, decision-logic tests for a condition and then the results of a specific action taken because of that condition. For studies on futures contracts, the data is contract-specific rather than continuous. Price data for as far back as 35 years is used, as are 12 calendar months prior to expiration for futures contracts or any 12-month period for cash or index data. Table Description Scenario SM studies are generated in two parts.
All prices are specific to the designated futures contract.
The rows which follow specifically pertain to the market response for the specific market requested in the study. Seasonal traders may find a sense of over-all trend strength from which to base their decisions. Should it become apparent that scenario month will close higher than its previous month again this year, a trader may look to buy any pullbacks with the expectation that it will follow through again. A futures contract will be succeded by the contract month symbol and the last digit of the contract year. This is drawn from the row Tested Years on the corresponding Study.