Vice Premier Li's figure has led some analysts to project growth of more than 20 percent in fixed asset investment this year alone. China's economy, after years of strong growth, appears to be losing steam due to flagging exports and stalling domestic demand. It expanded by 8.8 percent last year but growth slowed over the second half of 1997 and this year's target of 8.0 percent may be difficult to meet without stimulative measures, economists say. But China's leaders are eager to avoid repeating the mistakes of the past by letting stimulative measures trigger another round of profligate spending. Analysts say that means Beijing must be careful not to send the wrong signals even when it knows plans may have to be substantially revised.
Analysts say that politically, it pays to be vague.
China has repeated the political mantra of aiming to fix the problems of ailing state companies, many of them scrambling to trim their bloated payrolls, within the next three years. Ask how many of the state's some 300,000 companies may be shut or whether the three-year target might have to be stretched out just a bit, and the answer is elusive. Top officials have also told parliament that half of government cadres, or civil servants, will step down as part of a an overhaul of the state but the total is hardly set in stone. As China pushes ahead with plans to restructure state industry by sharply cutting the workforce, there is broad appeal in sweeping statements that the government itself will share the economic pain, analysts said. But analysts said political realities will dictate how quickly China can proceed with its plans to lay off state workers and cut the number of government jobs.