Divisions between the United States and many developing nations appear to have deepened since Kyoto, and the holes in the Protocol are beginning to seem more substantial than the agreement itself, according to the Worldwatch analysts. By creatively papering over wide differences among nations, the Kyoto negotiators may have crafted an agreement that is so complex, unwieldy, and uncertain that it may prove difficult to modify or implement. According to an article by Worldwatch research associate Seth Dunn, most developing countries have per capita emissions less than one-tenth the U.S. level, and have resisted the notion that they should adopt early emission limits. The Kyoto Protocol provides industrial countries the option to offset their greenhouse emissions by counting the carbon absorbed by their forests. But an article by Worldwatch biodiversity expert Ashley Mattoon points out that there is no scientific basis to make such an accounting today, and that the forestry provisions in the Protocol could result in activities that are harmful both to forests and to the climate.
Carbon sinks threaten to become a giant loophole that undermines the commitments made in Kyoto.
Sinks are likely to be dealt with only obliquely in Buenos Aires, since a scientific review of the proposal is now underway, but the U.S. is unlikely to ratify the Protocol until the sink provisions are fully fleshed out. This good concept was undermined by the unnecessarily generous emission allowances provided to Russia and Ukraine in the Protocol. These allowances are to be available for purchase by other countries, significantly weakening the emission goals in the Protocol, and undermining its legitimacy. One of the ironies of the year since Kyoto is that while national and international policy making have stagnated, opportunities for economically cutting emissions have blossomed. Motivated in part by the prospect of legally binding emission limits, companies, cities, and individuals have pursued a host of new initiatives.