But success could tempt Beijing to bolder moves. Taiwan boosted its ability to withstand a naval blockade when it took delivery last March of four former U.S. Navy minesweepers. It also leased six modern frigates from America last year, and has another six on order from France. Taiwan's own shipyards are capable of building anti-submarine frigates. However, its bids to augment its small fleet of submarines with purchases from Europe have repeatedly been stymied by strong opposition from Beijing.
China remains far ahead of Taiwan in undersea strength.
The U.S. factor. The biggest unknown is how Washington would react in the event of hostilities. Both Beijing and Taipei seem to think they know, however. Other senior officials have made similar statements. As a Chinese military delegation arrived in Washington last November for routine talks amid escalating tensions, Secretary of Defense William Perry said Beijing's military modernization program was no cause for alarm.