It could happen. But Wall Street forecasters say it'll take at least a decade before these newcomers begin to be serious contenders. Satellite broadcasters will be far behind at 2 million. Satellites aren't a big factor now because subscribers to services such as DirecPC still need a land route, typically a phone connection, to transmit e-mail or files to the Internet.
Customers consider that too complicated and inefficient.
That could change in 2003, when interactive services using low-orbit satellites enter the fray. Hughes plans to replace DirecPC with Spaceway. Users will be able to send and receive at speeds up to 6 million bits per second. And in 2004, Teledesic, a project backed by Bill Gates and cell phone pioneer Craig McCaw, says it will enable users to receive data at 64 million bits per second and transmit at 2 million. And that's the market that will be in the forefront of demanding new, broadband connections.