Long-time market observers might say there really is never a time when market conditions justify either comfort or certainty about price trends. But what is different this spring is that these uncertainties and their drivers appear to be gathering greater energy than in a long time. Goldthwait said EEP would be tapped only if export competitors increased their export subsidies significantly, if world prices continue falling or if the US loses market share. However, any USDA call for extending commodity loans via the nine-month loan program would need legislation, as the Freedom to Farm bill specifically denied giving the ag secretary his former discretionary authority for extending these loans. There's not only a real need for basic food there, but the U.S. has a major interest in preserving civil stability in the nation of more than 200 million people.
Additional pressure is caused by wheat settling to feed grain prices.
PL-480 could make for a softer landing at the lows. Often, a government buying program or donation program marks the lows in a market. According to AMBA, these varieties, when delivered in pure carlots of sound, bright, plump, low-moisture barley may command premium prices over feed barley. The malting and brewing industry encourages growers to plant Robust, as the top two US brewers are dissatisfied with the quality profile of Stander and are limiting their purchases of Stander malt. The industry purchased more Robust in 1997 than any other variety, and expects to do the same in 1998.