Finding that chain-affiliated homes are less cost efficient than independent homes casts concerns on the industry in light of the recent growth in chain affiliations. Recently released government data on nursing homes, board and care and home health care show that long-term care use after age 65 varies significantly by state. In general, the model provides a good fit for the state data. However, New York uses more care while California and Florida use less care than predicted. The logit results are combined with the United States Census population projections to forecast the demand for the housing categories through the year 2025.
Congregate care is the smallest category and is predicted to remain so.
Older non-minorities are more likely to use congregate care while minorities have a very low probability. No care, renter-occupied is the second largest category and is predicted to grow at the highest annual rate. These changes in demand for seniors housing have implications concerning reallocation of resources to meet the specific seniors housing needs. This study attempts to improve ALF demand feasibility models by providing a statistical analysis of residents in four successful ALFs in order to determine where residents came from and what their demographics are, compared to the surrounding community demographics. This study also analyzes the age, gender, income, education, occupation and ADL requirements of residents in facilities to further the understanding of micromarket demand fundamentals and help identify micromarket demographics used in creating a demand model.