The 1998 polling season is in full swing and the presidential campaign of 2000 is already under way. In 1996, polls made more news than anything that Clinton and Dole had to say. The news media often misrepresent or misinterpret polls either because they take them too literally or because, at the other extreme, they underestimate their technical complexity.
All surveys are subject to errors that go beyond the laws of chance.
In 1996, eight national election surveys all predicted a Clinton victory by margins that ranged between 7 and 18 percentage points on the eve of the election. Had the election been closer, the disparate results could easily have produced different forecasts of who the winner would be. In this case, as so often, the initial attack drew far more media attention than the subsequent apology. It s true that the polls showed inexplicable variations and fluctuations during the course of the race. As the campaign proceeded, different kinds of people were queried.