Document ID: EPA-R04-OAR-2013-0084-0022
Agency: epa
Document Type: Supporting & Related Material
Title: 
Posted Date: 2016-01-11T05:00Z

Exhibit 5  -  Safety Margin Testing
A series of emissions analyses were undertaken to assist GA EPD in developing the MVEB safety margins.  These tests include a worst case scenario of the RTP horizon year, 2040, which produces 10% more VMT than projected, 1 million more inhabitants (reflected in source type population), and an age distribution 2 years older than current data suggests for the year 2040.  These analyses were developed to help GA EPD establish a realistic motor vehicle emissions budget safety margin for use in transportation conformity.  2040 and the 2040 worst case emissions are reflected in Table 1 and 2, below.

       Table 1  -  2040 Scenario Testing Daily Ozone Precursor Emissions
                                   Pollutant
                                2040 Tons/Day 
                                (% above 2024)
                          2040 Worst Case Tons/Year 
                                (% above 2024)
                                      NOx
                                  103.42 (4%)
                                 126.24 (27%)
                                      VOC
                                  70.97 (14%)
                                  91.70 (47%)

                                       
      Table 2  -  2040 Scenario testing Annual PM2.5 Precursor Emissions
                                   Pollutant
                                2040 Tons/Year 
                                (% above 2024)
                           2040 Worst Case Tons/Year
                                 (% above 2024)
                                      NOx
                                36,150.78 (3%)
                                44,429.34 (26%)
                                     PM2.5
                                1,938.27 (18%)
                                2,281.15 (39%)