Document ID: EPA-R09-OAR-2014-0178-0185
Agency: epa
Document Type: Proposed Rule
Title: Air Quality State Implementation Plans; Approvals and Promulgations: California; Sacramento Metro Area, Attainment Plan for 1997 8-Hour Ozone Standard
Posted Date: 2014-10-15T04:00Z

[Federal Register Volume 79, Number 199 (Wednesday, October 15, 2014)]
[Proposed Rules]
[Pages 61799-61822]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Printing Office [www.gpo.gov]
[FR Doc No: 2014-24487]

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ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY

40 CFR Part 52

[EPA-R09-OAR-2014-0178; FRL-9917-85-Region-9]

Approval and Promulgation of Implementation Plans; State of 
California; Sacramento Metro Area; Attainment Plan for 1997 8-Hour 
Ozone Standard

AGENCY: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

ACTION: Proposed rule.

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SUMMARY: The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is proposing to 
approve state implementation plan (SIP) revisions submitted by the 
State of California to provide for attainment of the 1997 8-hour ozone 
national ambient air quality standard (``standard'' or NAAQS) in the 
Sacramento Metro

[[Page 61800]]

nonattainment area. EPA is proposing to approve the emissions 
inventories, air quality modeling, reasonably available control 
measures, provisions for transportation control strategies and 
measures, rate of progress and reasonable further progress (RFP) 
demonstrations, attainment demonstration, transportation conformity 
motor vehicle emissions budgets, and contingency measures for failure 
to make RFP or attain. EPA is also proposing to approve commitments for 
measures by the Sacramento Metro nonattainment area air districts.

DATES: Any comments must be submitted by November 14, 2014.

ADDRESSES: Submit comments, identified by docket number EPA-R09-OAR-
2014-0178, by one of the following methods:
     Federal eRulemaking Portal: www.regulations.gov. Follow 
the on-line instructions.
     Email: ungvarsky.john@epa.gov.
     Mail or deliver: John Ungvarsky, Office of Air Planning 
(AIR-2), U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Region IX, 75 Hawthorne 
Street, San Francisco, CA 94105.
    Instructions: All comments will be included in the public docket 
without change and may be made available online at www.regulations.gov, 
including any personal information provided, unless the comment 
includes Confidential Business Information (CBI) or other information 
whose disclosure is restricted by statute. Information that you 
consider CBI or otherwise protected should be clearly identified as 
such and should not be submitted through www.regulations.gov or email. 
The www.regulations.gov Web site is an ``anonymous access'' system, and 
EPA will not know your identity or contact information unless you 
provide it in the body of your comment. If you send email directly to 
EPA, your email address will be automatically captured and included as 
part of the public comment. If EPA cannot read your comments due to 
technical difficulties and cannot contact you for clarification, EPA 
may not be able to consider your comment.
    Docket: The index to the docket for this action is available 
electronically on the www.regulations.gov Web site and in hard copy at 
EPA Region IX, 75 Hawthorne Street, San Francisco, California 94105. 
While all documents in the docket are listed in the index, some 
information may be publicly available only at the hard copy location 
(e.g., copyrighted material), and some may not be publicly available at 
either location (e.g., CBI). To inspect the hard copy materials, please 
schedule an appointment during normal business hours with the contact 
listed in the FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT section below.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: John Ungvarsky, Air Planning Office 
(AIR-2), U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Region IX, (415) 972-
3963, ungvarsky.john@epa.gov.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Throughout this document, ``we,'' ``us'' and 
``our'' refer to EPA.

Table of Contents

I. The 8-Hour Ozone NAAQS and the Sacramento Metro Ozone 
Nonattainment Area
    A. Background on the 8-Hour Ozone NAAQS
    B. The Sacramento Metro 8-Hour Ozone Nonattainment Area
II. CAA and Regulatory Requirements for Ozone Nonattainment SIPs
III. California's State Implementation Plan Submittals To Address 8-
Hour Ozone Nonattainment in the Sacramento Metro Area
    A. California's SIP Submittals
    B. CAA Procedural and Administrative Requirements for SIP 
Submittals
IV. Review of the Sacramento Ozone Plan and the Sacramento Portion 
of the State Strategy
    A. Summary of EPA's Proposed Actions
    B. Emissions Inventories
    C. Reasonably Available Control Measure Demonstration and 
Adopted Control Strategy
    D. Attainment Demonstration
    E. Rate of Progress and Reasonable Further Progress 
Demonstrations
    F. Contingency Measures
    G. Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets for Transportation Conformity
    H. Vehicle Miles Travelled Emissions Offset Demonstration
V. EPA's Proposed Actions
    A. EPA's Proposed Approvals
    B. Request for Public Comments
VI. Statutory and Executive Order Reviews

I. The 8-Hour Ozone NAAQS and the Sacramento Metro Ozone Nonattainment 
Area

A. Background on the 8-Hour Ozone NAAQS

    Ground-level ozone is formed when oxides of nitrogen 
(NOX) and volatile organic compounds (VOC) react in the 
presence of sunlight.\1\ These two pollutants, referred to as ozone 
precursors, are emitted by many types of pollution sources, including 
on- and off-road motor vehicles and engines, power plants and 
industrial facilities, and smaller area sources such as lawn and garden 
equipment and paints.
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    \1\ California plans sometimes use the term Reactive Organic 
Gases (ROG) for VOC. These terms are essentially synonymous. For 
simplicity, we use the term VOC herein to mean either VOC or ROG.
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    Scientific evidence indicates that adverse public health effects 
occur following exposure to ozone, particularly in children and adults 
with lung disease. Breathing air containing ozone can reduce lung 
function and inflame airways, which can increase respiratory symptoms 
and aggravate asthma or other lung diseases. Ozone exposure also has 
been associated with increased susceptibility to respiratory 
infections, medication use, doctor visits, and emergency department 
visits and hospital admissions for individuals with lung disease. Ozone 
exposure also increases the risk of premature death from heart or lung 
disease. Children are at increased risk from exposure to ozone because 
their lungs are still developing and they are more likely to be active 
outdoors, which increases their exposure. See ``Fact Sheet, Proposal to 
Revise the National Ambient Air Quality Standards for Ozone,'' January 
6, 2010 and 75 FR 2938 (January 19, 2010).
    In 1979, under section 109 of the Clean Air Act (CAA), EPA 
established primary and secondary national ambient air quality 
standards (NAAQS or standard) for ozone at 0.12 parts per million (ppm) 
averaged over a 1-hour period. 44 FR 8202 (February 8, 1979).
    On July 18, 1997, EPA revised the primary and secondary NAAQS for 
ozone to set the acceptable level of ozone in the ambient air at 0.08 
ppm, averaged over an 8-hour period (``1997 8-hour ozone standard''). 
62 FR 38856 (July 18, 1997). EPA set the 1997 8-hour ozone standard 
based on scientific evidence demonstrating that ozone causes adverse 
health effects at lower concentrations and over longer periods of time 
than was understood when the pre-existing 1-hour ozone standard was 
set. EPA determined that the 1997 8-hour standard would be more 
protective of human health, especially children and adults who are 
active outdoors, and individuals with a pre-existing respiratory 
disease, such as asthma.
    On March 27, 2008, EPA revised and further strengthened the primary 
and secondary NAAQS for ozone by setting the acceptable level of ozone 
in the ambient air at 0.075 ppm, averaged over an 8-hour period (``2008 
8-hour ozone standard''). 73 FR 16436. On May 21, 2012, EPA designated 
areas of the country with respect to the 2008 8-hour ozone standard. 77 
FR 30088 and 40 CFR 81.330. Today's action only applies to the 1997 8-
hour ozone standard and does not address requirements of the 2008 8-
hour ozone standard.

[[Page 61801]]

B. The Sacramento Metro 8-Hour Ozone Nonattainment Area

    Following promulgation of a new or revised NAAQS, EPA is required 
by the CAA to designate areas throughout the nation as attaining or not 
attaining the NAAQS. Effective June 15, 2004, we designated 
nonattainment areas for the 1997 8-hour ozone NAAQS. At the same time, 
we assigned classifications to many of these areas based upon their 
ozone ``design value,'' in accordance with the structure of part D, 
subpart 2 of Title I of the Clean Air Act. See 69 FR 23858 (April 30, 
2004) and 40 CFR 51.903(a). The designations and classifications for 
the 1997 8-hour ozone standard for California areas are codified at 40 
CFR 81.305. EPA classified the Sacramento Metro Area (SMA) as 
``serious'' nonattainment for the 1997 8-hour ozone standard, with an 
attainment date no later than June 15, 2013, and published a rule 
governing certain facets of implementation of the 8-hour ozone standard 
(Phase 1 Rule) (69 FR 23858 and 69 FR 23951, respectively, April 30, 
2004). In a February 14, 2008 letter, the California Air Resources 
Board (CARB) requested that EPA reclassify the SMA from ``serious'' to 
``severe-15'' under CAA section 181(b)(3).\2\ On May 5, 2010, EPA 
finalized the reclassification of the SMA to ``severe-15'' with an 
attainment date no later than June 15, 2019.\3\ 75 FR 24409.
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    \2\ See SCAQMD Governing Board Resolution No. 07-9 (June 1, 
2007), p. 12; CARB Resolution No. 07-41 (September 27, 2007), p. 8; 
and letter, James Goldstene, Executive Officer, CARB to Wayne 
Nastri, Regional Administrator, EPA Region 9, November 28, 2007.
    \3\ For the 2008 ozone standard, we also designated the SMA as 
nonattainment and classified the area as ``severe-15.'' See 77 FR 
30088 (May 21, 2012). The SMA attainment date for the 2008 8-hour 
ozone standard is as expeditious as practicable but no later than 
December 31, 2027. Today's action does not address requirements 
concerning the 2008 8-hour ozone standard.
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    The SMA consists of Sacramento and Yolo counties and portions of El 
Dorado, Placer, Solano and Sutter counties. For a precise description 
of the geographic boundaries of the SMA, see 40 CFR 81.305. Sacramento 
County is under the jurisdiction of the Sacramento Metropolitan Air 
Quality Management District (SMAQMD). Yolo County and the eastern 
portion of Solano County comprise the Yolo-Solano AQMD (YSAQMD). The 
southern portion of Sutter County is part of the Feather River AQMD 
(FRAQMD). The western portion of Placer County is part of the Placer 
County Air Pollution Control District (PCAPCD). Lastly, the western 
portion of El Dorado County is part of the El Dorado County AQMD 
(EDCAQMD). Collectively, we refer to these five districts as the 
``Districts.'' Under California law, each air district is responsible 
for adopting and implementing stationary source rules, while the CARB 
adopts and implements consumer products and mobile source rules. The 
Districts and State rules are submitted to EPA by CARB.
    Ambient 8-hour ozone levels in the Sacramento area are well above 
the 1997 8-hour ozone NAAQS. The maximum design value for the area, 
based on monitored readings at the Folsom monitor in Sacramento County, 
is 0.090 ppm for the 2011-2013 period.\4\
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    \4\ See EPA Air Quality System Quick Look Report dated June 10, 
2014 in the docket for today's action. A design value is an ambient 
concentration calculated using a specific methodology to evaluate 
monitored air quality data and is used to determine whether an 
area's air quality is meeting a NAAQS. The methodology for 
calculating design values for the 8-hour ozone NAAQS is found in 40 
CFR part 50, Appendix I. This value is based on complete, validated, 
and certified data for the 2011-2013 timeframe.
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II. CAA and Regulatory Requirements for Ozone Nonattainment SIPs

    States must implement the 1997 8-hour ozone standard under Title 1, 
Part D of the CAA, which includes section 172, ``Nonattainment plan 
provisions,'' and subpart 2, ``Additional Provisions for Ozone 
Nonattainment Areas'' (sections 181-185).
    In order to assist states in developing effective plans to address 
their ozone nonattainment problem, EPA issued the 8-hour ozone 
implementation rule. This rule was finalized in two phases. The first 
phase of the rule addresses classifications for the 1997 8-hour ozone 
standard, applicable attainment dates for the various classifications, 
and the timing of emissions reductions needed for attainment. See 69 FR 
23951 (April 30, 2004). The second phase addresses SIP submittal dates 
and the requirements for reasonably available control technology and 
measures (RACT and RACM), reasonable further progress (RFP), modeling 
and attainment demonstrations, contingency measures, and new source 
review. See 70 FR 71612 (November 29, 2005). The rule is codified at 40 
CFR part 51, subpart X.\5\ We discuss each of these CAA and regulatory 
requirements for 8-hour ozone nonattainment plans in more detail below.
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    \5\ EPA has revised or proposed to revise several elements of 
the 8-hour ozone implementation rule since its initial promulgation 
in 2004. See, e.g., 74 FR 2936 (January 16, 2009); 75 FR 51960 
(August 24, 2010); and 75 FR 80420 (December 22, 2010). None of 
these revisions affect any provision of the rule that is applicable 
to EPA's proposed action on the Sacramento 8-Hour Ozone Attainment 
Plan.
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III. California's State Implementation Plan Submittals To Address 8-
Hour Ozone Nonattainment in the Sacramento Metro Area

A. California's SIP Submittals

    Designation of an area as nonattainment starts the process for a 
state to develop and submit to EPA a SIP providing for attainment of 
the NAAQS under title 1, part D of the CAA. For 8-hour ozone areas 
designated as nonattainment effective June 15, 2004, this attainment 
SIP was due by June 15, 2007. See CAA section 172(b) and 40 CFR 
51.908(a) and 51.910.
    California has made several SIP submittals to address the CAA's 
planning requirements for attaining the 1997 8-hour ozone standard in 
the SMA. The principal submittals are:
     Sacramento Regional Nonattainment Area 8-Hour Ozone 
Reasonable Further Progress Plan 2002-2008, February 2006;
     Sacramento Regional 8-Hour Ozone Attainment Plan and 
Reasonable Further Progress Plan, March 26, 2009;
     CARB's 2007 State Strategy (``2007 State Strategy'');
     Status Report on the State Strategy for California's 2007 
State Implementation Plan (SIP) and Proposed Revision to the SIP 
Reflecting Implementation of the 2007 State Strategy (``Revised 2007 
State Strategy''); \6\ and
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    \6\ On July 21, 2011, CARB further revised the State Strategy 
(i.e., Progress Report on Implementation of PM2.5 State 
Implementation Plans (SIP) for the South Coast and San Joaquin 
Valley Air Basins and Proposed SIP Revisions). Although the 2011 
revision was specific to the South Coast and San Joaquin Valley 
ozone nonattainment areas, they contained Appendix E, an assessment 
of the impacts of the economic recession on emissions from the goods 
movement sector. The growth projections developed for emissions 
inventories in the Sacramento Regional 8-Hour Ozone Attainment Plan 
and Reasonable Further Progress Plan (2013 Revisions) also rely on 
the recessionary impacts in Appendix E.
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     Sacramento Regional 8-Hour Ozone Attainment Plan and 
Reasonable Further Progress Plan (2013 SIP Revisions), September 26, 
2013.
    We refer to these submittals collectively as the ``Sacramento 8-
Hour Ozone Attainment Plan'' or ``Sacramento Ozone Plan.''
1. Sacramento Regional Nonattainment Area 8-Hour Ozone Reasonable 
Further Progress Plan 2002-2008
    The Sacramento Regional Nonattainment Area 8-Hour Ozone Reasonable 
Further Progress Plan 2002-2008 (``2002-2008 RFP Plan'') was

[[Page 61802]]

adopted by the Districts' governing boards during January-February 2006 
and then by CARB Executive Order G-125-335 on February 24, 2006. See 
table 1 for the Districts' adoption dates and resolution or order 
numbers. CARB submitted the 2002-2008 RFP Plan to EPA on February 24, 
2006.\7\
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    \7\ See letter from Catherine Witherspoon, Executive Officer, 
CARB to Wayne Nastri, Regional Administrator, EPA Region 9, February 
24, 2006, with enclosures.

   Table 1--Agencies and Adoption Dates for Sacramento Regional 8-Hour
          Ozone Attainment and Reasonable Further Progress Plan
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                                     Hearing and adoption       Board
             Agency                         dates             resolution
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SMAQMD..........................  January 26, 2006.........     2006-010
FRAQMD..........................  February 6, 2006.........      2006-01
EDCAQMD.........................  February 7, 2006.........     040-2006
YSAQMD..........................  February 8, 2006.........        06-01
PCAPCD..........................  February 19, 2006........        06-01
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    The 2002-2008 RFP Plan includes an RFP demonstration for the 2002-
2008 timeframe, an amended Rate of Progress Plan for the 1990-1996 
timeframe, and motor-vehicle emissions budgets used for transportation 
conformity purposes.
2. Sacramento Regional 8-Hour Ozone Attainment Plan
    The Sacramento Regional 8-Hour Ozone Attainment Plan and Reasonable 
Further Progress Plan (``2009 Ozone Attainment and RFP Plan'' or ``2009 
Plan'') was adopted by the Districts' governing boards during January-
February 2009 and then by CARB on March 26, 2009. See table 2 for 
adoption dates and resolution numbers. CARB submitted the 2009 Ozone 
Attainment and RFP Plan to EPA on April 19, 2009.\8\
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    \8\ See letter from James N. Goldstene, Executive Officer, CARB 
to Laura Yoshii, Acting Regional Administrator, EPA Region 9, April 
19, 2009, with enclosures.

 Table 2--Agencies and Adoption Dates for 2009 Ozone Attainment and RFP
                                  Plan
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                                     Hearing and adoption       Board
             Agency                         dates             resolution
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SMAQMD..........................  January 22, 2009.........     2009-001
FRAQMD..........................  February 2, 2009.........      2009-02
EDCAQMD.........................  February 10, 2009........     021-2009
YSAQMD..........................  February 11, 2009........        09-02
PCAPCD..........................  February 19, 2009........        09-01
CARB............................  March 26, 2009...........        09-19
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    The 2009 Ozone Attainment and RFP Plan includes an attainment 
demonstration, commitments by the Districts to adopt control measures 
to achieve emissions reductions from sources under its jurisdiction 
(primarily stationary sources), and motor-vehicle emissions budgets 
used for transportation conformity purposes. The attainment 
demonstration includes air quality modeling, an RFP plan, an analysis 
of reasonably available control measures/reasonably available control 
technology (RACM/RACT), base year and projected year emissions 
inventories, and contingency measures. The 2009 Ozone Attainment and 
RFP Plan also includes a demonstration that the most expeditious date 
for attaining the 1997 8-hour ozone NAAQS in the SMA is June 15, 2018.
    In late 2013, SMAQMD and CARB updated and revised the Sacramento 
Regional 8-Hour Ozone Attainment Plan and Reasonable Further Progress 
Plan (``2013 Ozone Attainment and RFP Plan Update'' or ``2013 Plan 
Update''). The 2013 Plan Update included a revised emissions inventory 
that accounted for control measures adopted through 2011, revised 
attainment and RFP demonstrations, the effects of the economic 
recession, and updated transportation activity projections provided by 
the Sacramento Area Council of Governments (SACOG). See table 3 for 
relevant hearing and adoption dates and board resolutions. CARB 
submitted the 2013 Plan Update to EPA on December 31, 2013.\9\
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    \9\ See letter from Richard W. Corey, Executive Officer, CARB to 
Jared Blumenfeld, Regional Administrator, EPA Region 9, December 31, 
2013, with enclosures.

 Table 3--Agencies and Adoption Dates for the 2013 Ozone Attainment and
                             RFP Plan Update
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                                     Hearing and adoption       Board
             Agency                         dates             resolution
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SMAQMD..........................  September 26, 2013.......     2013-026
CARB............................  November 21, 2013........        13-39
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    On June 19, 2014, CARB submitted a technical supplement to the 
Sacramento Vehicle Miles Travelled (VMT) emissions offset demonstration 
in the 2013 Plan Update.\10\ CARB's technical supplement includes a 
revised set of motor vehicle emissions estimates reflecting technical 
changes to the inputs used to develop the original set of 
calculations.\11\ While the vehicle emissions estimates in CARB's 
technical supplement differ from those contained in the demonstration 
in the 2013 Plan Update, the conclusions of the analysis remain the 
same.
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    \10\ See letter from Lynn Terry, Deputy Executive Officer, CARB, 
to Deborah Jordan, Director, Air Division, EPA Region 9, June 19, 
2014, with enclosures. On July 25, 2014, CARB sent EPA a revised 
technical supplement that corrected minor typographical errors. See 
record of July 25, 2014 email and attachment from Jon Taylor, CARB, 
to Matt Lakin, EPA, included in the docket.
    \11\ The principal difference between the two sets of 
calculations is that CARB's technical supplement includes running 
exhaust, start exhaust, hot soak, and running loss emissions of VOCs 
in all of the emissions scenarios. These processes are directly 
related to VMT and vehicle trips. The revised calculation excludes 
diurnal and resting loss emissions of VOCs from all of the emissions 
scenarios because such evaporative emissions are related to vehicle 
population rather than to VMT or vehicle trips.
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3. CARB State Strategy
    To demonstrate attainment, the Sacramento Ozone Plan relies to a 
large extent on measures in CARB's 2007 State Strategy. The 2007 State 
Strategy was adopted by CARB on September 27, 2007 and submitted to EPA 
on November 16, 2007.\12\
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    \12\ See CARB Resolution No. 07-28, September 27, 2007 with 
attachments and letter, James N. Goldstene, Executive Officer, CARB, 
to Wayne Nastri, Regional Administrator, EPA Region 9, November 16, 
2007 with enclosures.
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    The 2007 State Strategy describes CARB's overall approach to 
addressing, in conjunction with local plans, attainment of both the 
1997 Fine Particulate Matter (PM2.5) and 1997 8-hour ozone 
NAAQS not only in the SMA but also in California's other nonattainment 
areas, such as the South Coast Air Basin and the San Joaquin Valley. It 
also includes CARB's commitments to obtain emissions reductions of 
NOX and VOC from sources under the State's jurisdiction, 
primarily on- and off-road motor vehicles and engines, through the 
implementation of 15 defined State measures.\13\
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    \13\ The 2007 State Strategy also includes measures (i.e., Smog 
Check improvements) to be implemented by the California Bureau of 
Automotive Repair. See 2007 State Strategy, pp. 64-65 and CARB 
Resolution 7-28, Attachment B, p. 8.
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    On August 12, 2009, CARB submitted the Revised 2007 State Strategy, 
dated March 24, 2009 and adopted April 24, 2009.\14\ \15\ This 
submittal updated the

[[Page 61803]]

2007 State Strategy to reflect its implementation during 2007 and 2008 
and calculated emission reductions in the SMA from implementation of 
the State Strategy. The 2013 Plan Update incorporates the Revised 2007 
State Strategy and updates NOX and VOC emissions reductions 
estimates from adopted State measures and commitments. In today's 
proposal and in the context of the Sacramento Ozone Plan, we are only 
evaluating the State measures that are included in the Revised 2007 
State Strategy and applicable in the SMA.
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    \14\ See CARB Resolution No. 09-34, April 24, 2009 and letter, 
James N. Goldstene, Executive Officer, CARB to Wayne Nastri, 
Regional Administrator, EPA Region 9, August 12, 2009 with 
enclosures. Only pages 11-27 of the Revised 2007 State Strategy were 
submitted as a SIP revision. The balance of the report was for 
informational purposes only. See Attachment A to CARB Resolution No. 
09-34.
    \15\ EPA has previously approved portions of CARB's 2007 State 
Strategy and the Revised 2007 State Strategy that are relevant for 
attainment of the 1997 8-hour ozone standard in the San Joaquin 
Valley. See 77 FR 12674 (March 1, 2012).
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B. CAA Procedural and Administrative Requirements for SIP Submittals

    CAA sections 110(a)(1) and (2) and 110(l) require a state to 
provide reasonable public notice and opportunity for public hearing 
prior to the adoption and submittal of a SIP or SIP revision. To meet 
this requirement, every SIP submittal should include evidence that 
adequate public notice was given and an opportunity for a public 
hearing was provided consistent with EPA's implementing regulations in 
40 CFR 51.102.
    The Districts and CARB have satisfied applicable statutory and 
regulatory requirements for reasonable public notice and hearing prior 
to adoption and submittal of the 2009 Ozone Attainment and RFP Plan and 
2013 Plan Update. The Districts conducted public workshops, provided 
public comment periods, and held public hearings prior to the adoption 
of the 2002-2008 RFP Plan, 2009 Ozone Attainment and RFP Plan and 2013 
Plan Update. See discussions above in III.A.1, III.A.2, and III.A.3 for 
hearing and adoption dates.
    CARB conducted public workshops, provided public comment periods, 
and held a public hearing prior to the adoption of the 2007 State 
Strategy on September 27, 2007. See CARB Resolution No. 07-28. CARB 
also provided the required public notice, opportunity for public 
comment, and a public hearing prior to its April 24, 2009 adoption of 
the Revised 2007 State Strategy. See CARB Resolution 09-34. CARB also 
provided the required public notice, opportunity for public comment, 
and a public hearing prior to its November 21, 2013 adoption of the 
2013 Plan Update. See CARB Resolution No. 13-39.
    The SIP submittals include proof of publication for notices of the 
Districts' and CARB's public hearings, as evidence that all hearings 
were properly noticed. We find, therefore, that the submittals meet the 
procedural requirements of CAA sections 110(a) and 110(l).
    CAA section 110(k)(1)(B) requires that EPA determine whether a SIP 
submittal is complete within 60 days of receipt. This section also 
provides that any plan that EPA has not affirmatively determined to be 
complete or incomplete will become complete six months after the date 
of submittal by operation of law. EPA's SIP completeness criteria are 
found in 40 CFR part 51, Appendix V. The Sacramento Ozone Plan 
submittals were deemed complete by operation of law on the dates listed 
in table 4.

                  Table 4--Submittals and Completeness Determinations for Sacramento Ozone Plan
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Submittal                         Submittal date                    Completeness date
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2002-2008 RFP Plan.......................  February 24, 2006...........  August 24, 2006.
2007 State Strategy......................  November 16, 2007...........  May 16, 2008.
2009 Sacramento Regional 8-Hour Ozone      April 19, 2009..............  October 29, 2009.
 Attainment Plan and RFP Plan.
Revised 2007 State Strategy..............  August 12, 2009.............  February 12, 2010.
2013 Sacramento Regional 8-Hour Ozone      December 31, 2013...........  May 31, 2014.
 Attainment Plan and RFP Plan.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

IV. Review of the Sacramento Ozone Plan and the Sacramento Portion of 
the State Strategy

    We provide our evaluation of the Sacramento Ozone Plan's compliance 
with applicable CAA and EPA regulatory requirements below. A more 
detailed evaluation can be found in the technical support document 
(TSD) for this proposal, which is available online at 
www.regulations.gov under docket number EPA-R09-OAR-2014-0178, or from 
the EPA contact listed at the beginning of this notice.

A. Summary of EPA's Proposed Actions

    EPA is proposing to approve the 2002-2008 RFP Plan, 2009 Ozone 
Attainment and RFP Plan, those portions of the 2007 State Strategy and 
Revised 2007 State Strategy specific to ozone attainment in the SMA, 
and the 2013 Ozone Attainment and RFP Plan Update.
    We are proposing to approve the emissions inventories in these SIP 
revisions as meeting the applicable requirements of the CAA and ozone 
implementation rule. We are also proposing to approve the Districts' 
commitments to specific measures in these SIP revisions as 
strengthening the SIP.
    We are proposing to approve the air quality modeling analysis on 
which the Sacramento Ozone Plan's attainment, RACM, and RFP 
demonstrations are based because the Sacramento Ozone Plan includes 
sufficient documentation and analysis for EPA to determine the 
modeling's adequacy.
    We are proposing to approve the RACM analysis and the RFP and 
attainment demonstrations and related contingency measures as meeting 
the applicable requirements of the CAA and ozone implementation rule.
    We are proposing to approve new transportation conformity motor 
vehicle emissions budgets for 2017 and 2018.\16\
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    \16\ Motor vehicle emission budgets (MVEBs) for 2011, 2014, and 
2017 were previously found adequate by EPA on July 28, 2009 (74 FR 
37210). New MVEBs for 2014, 2017, and 2018 in the 2013 Plan Update 
were determined to be adequate on July 25, 2014. The adequacy 
finding was published on August 8, 2014 (79 FR 46436) with an 
effective date of August 25, 2014.
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    We are proposing to approve the Sacramento VMT emissions offset 
demonstration as meeting the applicable requirements in section 
182(d)(1)(A) of the Clean Air Act.
    EPA's analysis and findings are summarized below and are described 
in more detail in the TSD for this proposal which is available online 
at www.regulations.gov in the docket, EPA-R09-OAR-2014-0178, or from 
the EPA contact listed at the beginning of this notice.

B. Emissions Inventories

1. Requirements for Emissions Inventories
    CAA section 182(a)(1) requires each state with an ozone 
nonattainment area classified under subpart 2 to submit a 
``comprehensive, accurate, current inventory of actual emissions from 
all sources'' of the relevant pollutants in

[[Page 61804]]

accordance with guidance provided by the Administrator. Emissions 
inventories for ozone need to contain VOC and NOX emissions 
because these pollutants are precursors to ozone formation. The 
inventories should meet the data requirements of EPA's Consolidated 
Emissions Reporting Rule (codified at 40 CFR part 51 subpart A).
    A baseline emissions inventory is required for the attainment 
demonstration and for meeting RFP requirements. The baseline year for 
the SIP planning emissions inventory is identified as 2002 by EPA 
guidance memorandum.\17\ Additional EPA emission inventory guidance and 
the federal 8-hour ozone implementation rules set specific planning 
requirements pertaining to future milestone years for reporting RFP and 
to attainment demonstration years.18 19 Key RFP analysis 
years in the RFP demonstration include 2008 and every subsequent 3 
years out to the attainment date. The federal 8-hour ozone 
implementation rule also requires that for purposes of defining the 
data elements in emissions inventories for ozone nonnattainment areas, 
40 CFR part 51 subpart A applies.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \17\ ``2002 Base Year Emission Inventory SIP Planning: 8-Hour 
Ozone, PM2.5 and Regional Haze Programs'' (EPA Memorandum 
from L. Wegman and P. Tsirigotis, November 18, 2002).
    \18\ ``Emission Inventory Guidance for Implementation of Ozone 
and Particulate Matter National Ambient Air Quality Standards 
(NAAQS) and Regional Haze Regulations'' (EPA-454/R-05-001, August 
2005, updated November 2005).
    \19\ ``Final Rule to Implement the 8-Hour Ozone National Ambient 
Air Quality Standard--Phase 2'' (70 FR 71612, November 29, 2005).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

2. Emissions Inventories in the Sacramento Ozone Plan
    The baseline planning inventories for the SMA ozone nonattainment 
area together with additional documentation for the inventories are 
found in Section 5 and Appendix A of the 2013 Plan Update and in 
Appendix C of CARB's Staff Report on Proposed Revisions to the 8-Hour 
Ozone State Implementation Plan for the Sacramento Federal 
Nonattainment Area, October 22, 2013 (``CARB 2013 Staff Report''). The 
average summer weekday emissions typical of the ozone season are used 
for the 2002 base year planning inventory, RFP milestone years (e.g., 
2014) and the 2018 attainment year. These inventories incorporate 
reductions from federal, State, and Districts control measures adopted 
through January 2012 for mobile sources and through mid-2011 for 
stationary and area-wide sources.\20\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \20\ See 2013 Plan Update, Appendix A5: Recent Emission 
Inventory Adjustments, pages A5-1 through A5-5.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Table 5 provides a summary of the average summer weekday 
NOX and VOC emissions inventories for the 2002 baseline year 
and the 2018 attainment year. All inventories include NOX 
and VOC emissions from stationary, area, off-road mobile, and on-road 
mobile sources.
    The on-road motor vehicles inventory category consists of trucks, 
automobiles, buses, and motorcycles. California's model for estimating 
emissions from on-road motor vehicles operating in California is 
referred to as ``EMFAC'' (short for EMission FACtor). EMFAC has 
undergone many revisions over the years, and the current on-road motor 
vehicles emission model is EMFAC2011, the CARB model approved by EPA 
for estimating on-road motor source emissions.\21\ Appendix A1 of the 
2013 Plan Update contains the latest on-road motor vehicle summer 
planning VOC and NOX inventories, vehicle population, 
Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) and trips for each EMFAC vehicle class 
category for the Sacramento Metro nonattainment area. The motor vehicle 
emissions in the Sacramento Ozone Plan are based on CARB's EMFAC2011 
emission factor model and the latest planning assumptions from SACOG's 
2013/2016 Metropolitan Transportation Improvement Program (MTIP).\22\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \21\ See 78 FR 14533 (March 6, 2013) regarding EPA approval of 
the 2011 version of the California EMFAC model and announcement of 
its availability. The software and detailed information on the EMFAC 
vehicle emission model can be found on the following CARB Web site: 
http://www.arb.ca.gov/msei/msei.htm.
    \22\ Final 2013/16 Metropolitan Transportation Improvement 
Program, Amendment #1 to the MTP/SCS 2035, and Air Quality 
Conformity Analysis. August 16, 2012. Federal Highway Administration 
approval December 14, 2012.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The 2013 Plan Update contains off-road VOC and NOX 
inventories developed by CARB using category-specific methods and 
models.\23\ The off-road mobile source category includes aircraft, 
trains, ships, and off-road vehicles and equipment used for 
construction, farming, commercial, industrial, and recreational 
activities. Appendix A4 of the 2013 Plan Update contains the summary of 
in-use off-road equipment emissions, horsepower, population and 
activity data for the SMA using data outputs from CARB's 2011 In-Use 
Off-Road Equipment model. For those off-road emissions categories not 
updated with new methods and data, such as lawn and garden equipment, 
data outputs from CARB's OFFROAD2007 model were used.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \23\ Detailed information on CARB's off-road motor vehicle 
emissions inventory methodologies is found at: http://www.arb.ca.gov/msei/categories.htm#offroad_motor_vehicles.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The stationary source category of the emissions inventory includes 
non-mobile, fixed sources of air pollution comprised of individual 
industrial, manufacturing, and commercial facilities. Examples of 
stationary sources (a.k.a., point sources) include fuel combustion 
(e.g., electric utilities), waste disposal (e.g., landfills), cleaning 
and surface coatings (e.g., printing), petroleum production and 
marketing, and industrial processes (e.g., chemical). Stationary source 
operators report to the Districts the process and emissions data used 
to calculate emissions from point sources. The Districts then enter the 
information reported by emission sources into the California Emission 
Inventory Development and Reporting System (CEIDARS) database.\24\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \24\ The CEIDARS database consists of two categories of 
information: source information and utility information. Source 
information includes the basic inventory information generated and 
collected on all point and area sources. Utility information 
generally includes auxiliary data, which helps categorize and 
further define the source information. Used together, CEIDARS is 
capable of generating complex reports based on a multitude of 
category and source selection criteria.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The area sources category includes aggregated emissions data from 
processes that are individually small and widespread or not well-
defined point sources. The area source subcategories include solvent 
evaporation (e.g., consumer products and architectural coatings) and 
miscellaneous processes (e.g., residential fuel combustion and farming 
operations). Emissions from these sources are calculated from product 
sales, population, employment data, and other parameters for a wide 
range of activities that generate air pollution across the Sacramento 
nonattainment region.\25\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \25\ Detailed information on the area-wide source category 
emissions is found on the CARB Web site: http://www.arb.ca.gov/ei/areasrc/areameth.htm.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The emission inventories in the 2013 Plan Update were derived from 
the California Emission Projection Analysis Model (CEPAM).\26\ The 
CEPAM model run used in the Sacramento Ozone Plan is based on a 2005 
baseline inventory developed using the methods or databases described 
above (e.g.,

[[Page 61805]]

EMFAC2011, CIEDERS, CARB's 2011 In-Use Off-Road Equipment model). The 
inventory was calibrated to 2005 emissions and activity levels, and 
inventories for other years are back-cast (e.g., 2002) or forecast 
(e.g., 2018) using CEPAM from that base inventory.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \26\ Appendix A2 of the 2013 Plan Update Appendices contains the 
estimated VOC and NOX stationary, area-wide and off-road 
forecast summaries by Emission Inventory Code categories for the 
Sacramento nonattainment area in CEPAM. (Appendix A2 is available 
separately in electronic file format.) A CEPAM inventory tool was 
created to support the development of the 2012 PM2.5 SIPs 
due at that time. The tool was designed to support all of the 
modeling, planning, and reporting requirements due at that time and 
includes updates for all the pollutants (e.g., NOX and 
VOC).

     Table 5--SMA NOX and VOC Emissions Inventory Summaries for the 2002 Base Year and 2018 Attainment Year
                           [Average summer weekday emissions in tons per day, tpd] \a\
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                NOX                             VOC
                    Category                     ---------------------------------------------------------------
                                                       2002            2018            2002            2018
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Stationary Sources..............................            12.2            10.9            17.5            22.6
Area Sources....................................             3.1             3.1            32.5            30.5
On-Road Mobile Sources..........................            99.1            36.6            51.9            17.1
Off-Road Mobile Sources.........................            50.4            25.9            40.7            24.4
Inventory Adjustments by CARB...................               0             0.3             4.1             4.0
                                                 ---------------------------------------------------------------
    Totals......................................           164.8            76.9           146.7            98.7
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\a\ CARB 2013 Staff Report, tables C1-4. Because of rounding conventions, totals may not add up to exact
  estimates in categories.

3. Proposed Action on the Emissions Inventories
    We have reviewed the emissions inventories in the Sacramento Ozone 
Plan and the inventory methodologies used by the Districts and CARB for 
consistency with CAA section 182(a)(1), the ozone implementation rule, 
and EPA's guidance. We find that the base year and projected attainment 
year inventories are comprehensive, accurate, and current inventories 
of actual or projected emissions of NOX and VOC in the SMA 
nonattainment area as of the date of their submittal. We propose, 
therefore, to approve these inventories as meeting the requirements of 
CAA section 172(c)(3), the ozone implementation rule and applicable EPA 
guidance.

C. Reasonably Available Control Measures and Adopted Control Strategy

1. RACM Requirements
    CAA section 172(c)(1) requires that each attainment plan ``provide 
for the implementation of all reasonably available control measures as 
expeditiously as practicable (including such reductions in emissions 
from existing sources in the area as may be obtained through the 
adoption, at a minimum, of reasonably available control technology), 
and shall provide for attainment of the national primary ambient air 
quality standards.''
    EPA has previously provided guidance interpreting the RACM 
requirement in the General Preamble at 13560 \27\ and in a memorandum 
entitled ``Guidance on Reasonably Available Control Measures (RACM) 
Requirements and Attainment Demonstration Submissions for the Ozone 
NAAQS,'' John Seitz, November 30, 1999.\28\ (Seitz memo). In summary, 
EPA guidance provides that to address the requirement to adopt all 
RACM, states should consider all potentially reasonable control 
measures for source categories in the nonattainment area to determine 
whether they are reasonably available for implementation in that area 
and whether they would, if implemented individually or collectively, 
advance the area's attainment date by one year or more. See Seitz memo 
and General Preamble at 13560; See also ``State Implementation Plans; 
General Preamble for Proposed Rulemaking on Approval of Plan Revisions 
for Nonattainment Areas,'' 44 FR 20372 (April 4, 1979) and Memorandum 
dated December 14, 2000, from John S. Seitz, Director, Office of Air 
Quality Planning and Standards, ``Additional Submission on RACM from 
States with Severe One-Hour Ozone Nonattainment Area SIPs.''
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \27\ The ``General Preamble for the Implementation of Title I of 
the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990,'' published at 57 FR 13498 on 
April 16, 1992, describes EPA's preliminary view on how we would 
interpret various SIP planning provisions in title I of the CAA as 
amended in 1990, including those planning provisions applicable to 
the 1-hour ozone standard. EPA continues to rely on certain guidance 
in the General Preamble to implement the 8-hour ozone standard under 
title I.
    \28\ Available at www.epa.gov/ttn/oarpg/t1pgm.html.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Any measures that are necessary to meet these requirements that are 
not already either federally promulgated, part of the state's SIP, or 
otherwise creditable in SIPs must be submitted in enforceable form as 
part of a state's attainment plan for the area. 72 FR 20586, at 
20614.\29\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \29\ For ozone nonattainment areas classified as moderate or 
above, CAA section 182(b)(2) also requires implementation of RACT 
for all major sources of VOC and for each VOC source category for 
which EPA has issued a Control Techniques Guideline (CTG). CAA 
section 182(f) requires that RACT under section 182(b)(2) also apply 
to major stationary sources of NOX. In severe areas, a 
major source is a stationary source that emits or has the potential 
to emit at least 25 tons of VOC or NOX per year. CAA 
section 182(d). Under the 8-hour ozone implementation rule, states 
were required to submit SIP revisions meeting the RACT requirements 
of CAA sections 182(b)(2) and 182(f) no later than 27 months after 
designation for the 8-hour ozone standard (September 15, 2006 for 
areas designated in April 2004) and to implement the required RACT 
measures no later than 30 months after that submittal deadline. See 
40 CFR 51.912(a). California has submitted CAA section 182 RACT SIPs 
for the Districts comprising the Sacramento Metro ozone 
nonattainment area, and the status of the submittals is described in 
the TSD for this action. While any evaluation of a RACM 
demonstration needs to consider the potential effect of CAA section 
182(b)(2) RACT on expeditious attainment, it does not require that 
there first be an approved RACT demonstration.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    CAA section 172(c)(6) requires nonattainment plans to ``include 
enforceable emission limitations, and such other control measures, 
means or techniques (including economic incentives such as fees, 
marketable permits, and auctions of emission rights), as well as 
schedules and timetables for compliance, as may be necessary or 
appropriate to provide for attainment of such standard in such area by 
the applicable attainment date.'' See also CAA section 110(a)(2)(A). 
The ozone implementation rule requires that all control measures needed 
for attainment be implemented no later than the beginning of the 
attainment year ozone season. 40 CFR 51.908(d). The attainment year 
ozone season is defined as the ozone season immediately preceding a 
nonattainment area's attainment date. 40 CFR 51.900(g).
    The purpose of the RACM analysis is to determine whether or not 
control measures exist that are technically reasonable and that provide 
emissions reductions that would advance the attainment date for 
nonattainment areas. Control measures that would advance the attainment 
date are considered

[[Page 61806]]

RACM and must be included in the SIP to ensure that the attainment is 
achieved ``as expeditiously as practicable.'' RACM is defined by EPA as 
any potential control measure for application to point, area, on-road 
and non-road emission source categories that meets the following 
criteria: (1) Technologically feasible; (2) economically feasible; (3) 
does not cause ``substantial widespread and long-term adverse 
impacts''; (4) is not ``absurd, unenforceable, or impracticable''; and 
(5) can advance the attainment date by at least one year. General 
Preamble at 13560.
2. RACM Demonstration in the SIP
    CARB and the Districts have rulemaking processes for development, 
adoption and implementation of RACM. The State and Districts have 
adopted numerous measures since 2002, the base year for the Sacramento 
Ozone Plan, and included enforceable commitments for measures that are 
scheduled to be adopted in the future. The RACM analysis for the 
Sacramento Ozone Plan includes an evaluation of the State's, 
Districts', and the Sacramento Area Council of Governments' (SACOG) new 
stationary, area and mobile sources measures that have been adopted 
since the base year and commitments for future adoption, as discussed 
in more detail below. See 2009 Plan and the 2013 Plan Update, Appendix 
H--Reasonably Available Control Measures (for stationary and area 
sources) and Appendix D--Transportation Control Measures (for 
transportation control measures), and 2007 State Strategy, Appendix G.
    For the Sacramento Ozone Plan, the Districts, CARB, and SACOG each 
undertook a process to identify and evaluate potential RACM that could 
contribute to expeditious attainment of the 8-hour ozone standards in 
the SMA. We describe each agency's efforts below.
a. Districts' RACM Analysis and Adopted Control Strategy
    The Districts' RACM analysis, which focuses on stationary and area 
source controls, is briefly described in Chapter 7 and detailed in 
Appendix H of both the 2009 Plan and the 2013 Plan Update.
    Since the 1970s, the Districts have adopted stationary source 
control rules that have resulted in significant improvement of air 
quality in the SMA. These regulations and strategies have yielded 
significant emissions reductions from sources under the Districts' 
jurisdiction. The Districts are also using economic incentive 
approaches, such as the Carl Moyer program,\30\ to achieve additional 
reductions.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \30\ The Carl Moyer Memorial Air Quality Standards Attainment 
Program (``Carl Moyer Program'') provides incentive grants for 
engines, equipment and other sources of pollution that are cleaner 
than required, providing early or extra emission reductions. 
Eligible projects include cleaner on-road, off-road, marine, 
locomotive and stationary agricultural pump engines. The program 
achieves near-term reductions in emissions of NOX, PM, 
and VOC or reactive organic gas (ROG) which are necessary for 
California to meet its clean air commitments under the SIP.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    To identify all available RACM, the Districts conducted a thorough 
process that involved public meetings to solicit input, evaluation of 
EPA-suggested RACM and RACT, and evaluation of other air agencies' 
regulations. See 2009 Plan and 2013 Plan Update, Appendix H--Reasonably 
Available Control Measures. The Districts' staffs conducted internal 
reviews, consulted with CARB staff, solicited ideas from technical 
consultants, and attended a technology forum summit at the South Coast 
Air Quality Management District. In addition, the Districts' staff 
reviewed the following documents:
     ``Final 2007 Air Quality Management Plan,'' South Coast 
Air Quality Management District, June 2007;
     ``2007 Ozone Plan,'' San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution 
control District, April 30, 2007; and
     ``Bay Area 2005 Ozone Strategy--Appendix C, Stationary and 
Mobile Source Control Measure Descriptions,'' Bay Area Air Quality 
Management District, January 4, 2006.
    District staff compared requirements in place in the SMA with 
adopted rules in the following air districts:
     South Coast Air Quality Management District;
     Bay Area Air Quality Management District;
     Ventura County Air Pollution Control District; and
     San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District.
    Each of the Districts was responsible for preparing the RACM 
analysis for the stationary measures in its jurisdiction. The regional 
mobile source and land use measures were evaluated by technical 
consultants for the Districts on behalf of the region.
    From these analyses, staff compiled the proposed control measures, 
``Sacramento Regional 8-hour Ozone Attainment Plan--Control Measures: 
Draft, October 2006.'' The Districts' staffs conducted public workshops 
at four locations throughout the Sacramento region to solicit comments 
on the proposed control measures and ideas for additional control 
measures to be considered. Following the public workshops, staff 
evaluated public comments and suggestions, reviewed the final plan 
documents noted above, and compiled the proposed control measures 
included in this plan.
    The following is a summary of the Districts' staff's findings:
    1. The Districts' staff evaluated and analyzed all reasonable 
control measures that were currently available for inclusion in the 
Sacramento Ozone Plan.
    2. The Districts' staff identified new or amended stationary 
control measures, and mobile source and land use control measures that 
are included in the Sacramento Ozone Plan.
    3. The Sacramento Ozone Plan includes all RACM provided by the 
public and experts.
    4. The available control measures that are not included 
collectively would not advance the attainment date or contribute to RFP 
for the SMA because of the insignificant or non-quantifiable amount of 
emissions reductions that they may potentially generate. Tables H-1 
through H-6 of Appendix H of the 2009 Plan and 2013 Plan Update contain 
a list of the measures and a brief discussion of the conclusions.
    5. The RACM demonstration for transportation control measures was 
prepared by SACOG and is discussed separately in Appendix D--
Transportation Control Measures of the 2009 Plan and 2013 Plan Update.
    In general, EPA finds that with respect to emissions of ozone 
precursors the Districts' current rules and regulations are equivalent 
to or more stringent than those developed by other air districts, with 
a few exceptions where more stringent controls are technically feasible 
but not cost effective and/or would not advance attainment.
    Based on their RACM evaluations, the Districts committed to 
approximately twenty-two new or revised stationary source control 
measures for development and adoption, including measures at least as 
stringent as those identified in other California districts, as well as 
some new innovative measures. The Districts determined that the few 
available measures that were not included in the attainment strategy 
would not advance the attainment date or contribute to RFP due to the 
insignificant or unquantifiable emissions reductions they would 
potentially generate. See Appendix H in both the 2009 Plan and 2013 
Plan Update for additional discussion of cost and advancement of 
attainment considerations used in the RACM analysis.

[[Page 61807]]

    Since 2002, the Districts have adopted or amended approximately 
fifty-seven NOX and VOC rules. In the context of the SIP, 
these can be broken into three groups: Thirty-six have been approved 
into the SIP; thirteen have been submitted and are awaiting processing 
(e.g., approval into the SIP); and thirteen have not yet been submitted 
by the State. Reductions from rules not approved into the SIP will not 
receive credit towards attainment. A detailed summary of the Districts' 
NOX and VOC rules adopted between 2002 and 2013 is provided 
in the TSD. These rules include controls on various NOX and 
VOC emissions from sources such as: Boilers, process heaters, and steam 
generators; internal combustion engines; various coating operations; 
and solvent cleaning operations.
    The 2009 Plan includes commitments by the Districts ``to adopt and 
implement new control measures that satisfy federal Reasonably 
Achievable Control Measure requirements and achieve, collectively with 
measures adopted by [the Districts], total emission reductions of 3 
tons per day VOC and 3 tons per day NOX in the [SMA].'' \31\ 
The 2009 Plan also includes a commitment by SMAQMD ``to adopt and 
implement the Regional On-road Mobile Incentive Program that achieves 
total emission reductions of 0.1 ton per day of VOC and 0.7 ton per day 
of NOX in 2011; 0.1 ton per day of VOC and 0.8 ton per day 
of NOX in 2014; 0.9 ton per day of NOX in 2017 
and 2018 in the [SMA].'' \32\ In 2013, the Districts updated the list 
of control measures that they committed to adopt and implement. The 
update reflected progress since adoption of the 2009 Plan and changes 
resulting from the revised attainment demonstration in the 2013 Plan 
Update. Tables 6 and 7 list rule commitments by the Districts in the 
2013 Plan Update. The Districts' rule commitments in the 2013 Plan 
Update are expected to achieve emissions reductions of approximately 1 
tpd of NOX and 3 tpd of VOC. See 2013 Plan Update, Section 
7, Table 7-5. The commitments include new or amended rules for 
categories such as: Architectural coatings, degreasing/solvent 
cleaning, automotive refinishing, and large water heaters and small 
boilers, and a mobile source incentive program. The 2009 Plan and 2013 
Plan Updates also explain that if a particular measure or a portion 
thereof is found infeasible or does not get its expected emission 
reductions, the Districts still commit to achieving the total emission 
reductions necessary to attain the 1997 8-hour ozone standard. The 
specific control measures as adopted may provide more or less 
reductions than estimated in the 2013 Plan Update, and if ``future air 
quality modeling or air quality improvements indicate that all of the 
emission reductions from the new measures are not necessary for 
attainment and an infeasibility finding is made for a control measure 
or a portion thereof, the region's SIP commitment can be adjusted 
downward.'' \33\ Tables 6 and 7 show that the Districts have already 
adopted and implemented several new rules that help fulfill their 
commitments, and of these, EPA has approved or proposed to approve 
submitted measures achieving approximately 1.0 tpd of NOX 
and 0.3 tpd of VOC. See table 10 in today's notice.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \31\ See Resolution 2009-001, Board of Directors of the SMAQMD, 
January 22; 2009; Resolution 021-2009, Board of Directors of the 
EDCAQMD, February 10, 2009; Resolution 2009-002, Board of Directors 
of the FRAQMD, April 7, 2009; Resolution 09-01, Board of Directors 
of the PCAQMD, February 19, 2009; Resolution 09-02, Board of 
Directors of the YSAQMD, February 11, 2009.
    \32\ See Resolution 2009-001, Board of Directors of the SMAQMD, 
January 22; 2009. The FRAQMD and PCAPCD also adopted this 
commitment. See Resolution 2009-002, Board of Directors of the 
FRAQMD, April 7, 2009, and Resolution 09-01, Board of Directors of 
the PCAQMD, February 19, 2009. SMAQMD administers the Sacramento 
Emergency Clean Air & Transportation Grant Program (SECAT), which is 
expected to be the primary source of emission reductions for the 
Regional On-road Mobile Incentive Program. The emission reductions 
commitment for Regional On-road Mobile Incentive Program is also 
part of the commitment for new control measures to achieve emissions 
reductions of 3 tons per day VOC and 3 tons per day NOX 
in the SMA.
    \33\ See page 7-13 of the 2013 Plan Update. Table 7-5 in the 
2013 Plan Update provides additional details regarding the Districts 
commitments.

                         Table 6--Districts' Rule Adoption Commitments and Expected Reductions for NOX in Sacramento Ozone Plan
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                                                  Expected
                Title                         District                 Rule No.              Adoption year       reduction              Status
                                                                                                                   (tpd)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Boilers, Steam Generator, and         YSAQMD.................  2.27...................  2016..................          0.2  Not yet adopted.
 Process Heaters.
IC Engines..........................  FRAQMD.................  3.22...................  2010..................         <0.1  77 FR 12493 (March 1,
                                                                                                                              2012).
Large Water Heaters and Small         EDCAQMD................  239....................  2015..................         <0.1  Not yet adopted.
 Boilers.
                                      FRAQMD.................  3.23...................  2016..................          0.0  Not yet adopted.
                                      PCAPCD.................  CM2 (247)..............  2015..................         <0.1  Proposed rulemaking and
                                                                                                                              direct Final notices
                                                                                                                              signed on September 5,
                                                                                                                              2014 and pending
                                                                                                                              publication.
                                      YSAQMD.................  2.37...................  2009..................          0.2  75 FR 25778 (May 10, 2010).
Regional Non-regulatory and           SMAQMD.................  various................  various...............          0.5  Not yet adopted.
 Incentive Measures \a\.
                                                                                                               -------------
    Total...........................  .......................  .......................  ......................          1.1  ...........................
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\a\ Includes Regional Mobile Incentive Programs for On-Road (e.g., SECAT) and Off-Road sources, SACOG Transportation Control Measures, Spare the Air
  Program, and Urban Forest Development Program.

[[Page 61808]]

                         Table 7--Districts' Rule Adoption Commitments and Expected VOC Reductions in the Sacramento Ozone Plan
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                                          Expected  reduction
               Title                       District               Rule No.            Adoption year              (tpd)                   Status
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Architectural Coatings............  EDCAQMD..............  215..................  2013.................  0.1.................  Not yet adopted.
                                    FRAQMD...............  3.15.................  2014.................  <0.1................  Not yet adopted.
                                    PCAPCD...............  218..................  2012.................  0.2.................  76 FR 75795 (December 5,
                                                                                                                                2011).
                                    SMAQMD...............  442..................  2014.................  0.9.................  Not yet adopted.
                                    YSAQMD...............  2.14.................  2014.................  0.2.................  Not yet adopted.
Automotive Refinishing............  FRAQMD...............  3.19.................  2016.................  <0.1................  Not yet adopted.
                                    PCAPCD...............  234..................  2015.................  <0.1................  Not yet adopted
                                    SMAQMD...............  459..................  2011.................  0.1.................  77 FR 47536 (August 9,
                                                                                                                                2012).
                                    YSAQMD...............  2.26.................  2008.................  <0.1................  Adopted but not yet
                                                                                                                                submitted to EPA.
Degreasing/Solvent Cleaning.......  FRAQMD...............  3.14.................  2011.................  <0.1................  Submitted to EPA on
                                                                                                                                February 10, 2014.
                                    YSAQMD...............  2.24/2.31............  2008.................  0.7.................  Submitted to EPA on
                                                                                                                                February 10, 2014.
Graphic Arts......................  YSAQMD...............  2.29.................  2016.................  not available.......  Not yet adopted.
Miscellaneous Metal Parts.........  PCAPCD...............  245..................  2008.................  <0.1................  76 FR 30025 (May 24,
                                                                                                                                2011).
Natural Gas Production and          SMAQMD...............  461..................  2014.................  0.1.................  Not yet adopted.
 Processing.
Regional Non-regulatory and         SMAQMD...............  various..............  various..............  0.1.................  Not yet adopted.
 Incentive Measures \a\.
                                                                                                        ----------------------
    Total.........................  .....................  .....................  .....................  2.7.................  .........................
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\a\ Includes Regional Mobile Incentive Programs for On-Road (e.g., SECAT) and Off-Road sources, SACOG Transportation Control Measures, Spare the Air
  Program, and Urban Forest Development Program.

b. CARB's RACM Analysis and Adopted Control Strategy
    Source categories for which CARB has primary responsibility for 
reducing emissions in California include most new and existing on- and 
off-road engines and vehicles, motor vehicle fuels, and consumer 
products. In addition, California has unique authority under CAA 
section 209 (subject to a waiver by EPA) to adopt and implement new 
emission standards for many categories of on-road vehicles and engines, 
and new and in-use off-road vehicles and engines.
    Given the need for significant emissions reductions from mobile and 
area sources to meet the NAAQS in California nonattainment areas, the 
State of California has been a leader in the development of some of the 
most stringent control measures nationwide for on-road and off-road 
mobile sources and the fuels that power them. These standards have 
reduced new car emissions by 99 percent and new truck emissions by 90 
percent from uncontrolled levels. 2007 State Strategy, p. 37. The State 
is also working with EPA on goods movement activities and is 
implementing programs to reduce emissions from ship auxiliary engines, 
locomotives, harbor craft and new cargo handling equipment. In 
addition, the State has standards for lawn and garden equipment, 
recreational vehicles and boats, and other off-road sources that 
require newly manufactured equipment to be 80-98 percent cleaner than 
their uncontrolled counterparts. Id. Finally, the State has adopted 
many measures that focus on achieving reductions from in-use mobile 
sources that include more stringent inspection and maintenance (I/M) or 
``Smog Check'' requirements, truck and bus idling restrictions, and 
various incentive programs. Since 1994 alone, the State has taken more 
than 45 rulemaking actions and achieved most of the emissions 
reductions needed for attainment in the State's nonattainment areas. 
See 2007 State Strategy, pp. 36-40. As is noted in the 2007 State 
Strategy, EPA has approved California's mobile source program as 
representing best available control measures.\34\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \34\ See 2007 State Strategy, Appendix G, and 69 FR 5412 
(February 4, 2004), 69 FR 30006 (May 26, 2004) (proposed and final 
approval of San Joaquin Valley PM10 plan). Also see 76 FR 
57872 at 57879 (September 16, 2011), 77 FR 12674 at 12693 (March 1, 
2012) (proposed and final approval of South Coast 2007 Air Quality 
Management Plan for attainment of the 1997 8-hour ozone standard).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    CARB developed its 2007 State Strategy after an extensive public 
consultation process to identify potential SIP measures.\35\ From this 
process, CARB identified and committed to propose 15 new defined 
measures. These measures focus on cleaning up the in-use fleet as well 
as increasing the stringency of emissions standards for a number of 
engine categories, fuels, and consumer products. Many, if not most, of 
these measures have been adopted or are being proposed for adoption for 
the first time anywhere in the nation. They build on CARB's already 
comprehensive program described above that addresses emissions from all 
types of mobile sources and consumer products, through both regulations 
and incentive programs.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \35\ More information on this public process, including 
presentations from the workshops and symposium that preceded the 
adoption of the 2007 State Strategy, can be found at www.arb.ca.gov/planning/sip/2007sip/2007sip.htm.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    During its March 2009 adoption of the 2009 Plan, CARB committed to 
``achieve reductions of nitrogen oxide (NOX) emissions of 13 
tons per day (tpd) and reductions or reactive organic gas (ROG) 
emissions of 11 tpd through the implementation of measures identified 
in the 2007 State Strategy.'' See Resolution 09-19, CARB, March 26, 
2009.
    In April 2009, CARB adopted the Revised 2007 State Strategy. This 
submittal updated the 2007 State Strategy to reflect its implementation 
during 2007 and 2008 and calculated emission reductions in the SMA from 
implementation of the State Strategy. See Revised 2007 State Strategy, 
pages 12 and 19. Reductions in the SMA from the statewide measures in 
the 2007 State Strategy had not been quantified at that time and were 
not reflected in the Revised 2007 State Strategy. Table 8

[[Page 61809]]

below lists the defined measures and expected reductions in the Revised 
2007 State Strategy, including a measure from the California Bureau of 
Automotive Repair.\36\ The Revised 2007 State Strategy indicates that 
the State expects to achieve these emission reductions by the projected 
attainment year of 2018. In the Revised 2007 State Strategy, CARB 
provided estimated emissions reductions for each measure to show that, 
when considered together, these measures can meet the total commitment. 
CARB states, however, that its enforceable commitment is to achieve 
specific emissions reductions for each pollutant by the given dates and 
not for a specific level of reductions from any specific measure. See 
Revised 2007 State Strategy, p. 13. A summary of the estimated and 
expected reductions from the proposed measures is provided in table 8 
below.\37\ As shown, the State has already adopted almost all of the 
measures.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \36\ See Staff Report, Analysis of Sacramento Metro Area's 2009 
State Implementation Plan for Ozone, CARB, March 12, 2009 (``CARB 
2009 Staff Report'').
    \37\ The 2013 Plan Update and CARB's 2013 Staff Report include 
``Accelerated Introduction of Cleaner Line-Haul Locomotives'' as a 
State measure in the Sacramento ozone nonattainment area, but this 
measure was not included in the Revised 2007 State Strategy and CARB 
2009 Staff Report as part of the State's original commitment.

Table 8--Expected Emissions Reductions From Defined Measures in the Revised 2007 State Strategy as Applicable to
    SMA, CARB Adoption Date, Expected Emissions Reductions (2018 Planning Inventory, tpd) and Current Status
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       Defined State measure             Adoption date        2018 NOX     2018 VOC         Current status
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Smog Check Improvements............  August 31, 2009......          1.4          1.3  Elements approved, 75 FR
                                                                                       38023 (July 1, 2010).
Expanded Vehicle Retirement........  June 26, 2009........          0.3          0.2  Not submitted to EPA.
Modifications to Reformulated        June 14, 2007........  ...........          1.1  Approved, 75 FR 26653 (May
 Gasoline Program.                                                                     12, 2010).
Cleaner In-use Heavy Duty Trucks...  December 16, 2010....          9.5          0.8  Approved, 77 FR 20308,
                                                                                       April 4, 2012.
Clean Up Existing Harbor Crafts....  November 15, 2007....          0.2          0.0  Authorization granted, 76
                                                                                       FR 77521, December 13,
                                                                                       2011.
Cleaner In-Use Off-Road Equipment    December 17, 2010....          1.9          0.4  Authorization granted, 78
 (over 25 hp).                                                                         FR 58090, September 20,
                                                                                       2013.
New Emissions Standards for          February 2015........          0.3          3.0  Not yet adopted.
 Recreational Boats.
Expanded Off-Road Recreational       July 25, 2013........          0.0          2.7  Not yet approved by
 Vehicle Emissions Standards.                                                          California's Office of
                                                                                       Administrative Law.
Additional Evaporative Emission      September 25, 2008...  ...........          0.4  Similar to federal
 Standards (for Off-Road Sources)                                                      requirement at 40 CFR
 (e.g., Portable Outboard Marine                                                       1060.105.
 Tanks and Components).
Consumer Products Program..........  November 17, 2007....  ...........          1.9  Approved, 74 FR 57074,
                                                                                       November 4, 2009.
                                     June 26, 2008........  ...........  ...........  Approved, 76 FR 27613, May
                                                                                       12, 2011.
                                     September 24, 2009...  ...........  ...........  Approved, 77 FR 7535,
                                                                                       February 13, 2012.
                                     November 18, 2010....  ...........  ...........  Proposed rulemaking and
                                                                                       direct final notices
                                                                                       signed on August 5, 2014
                                                                                       and pending publication.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Total Emissions Reduction Commitment From CARB                   13           11  ..........................
     Measures.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The TSD includes a list of all measures adopted by CARB between 
1990 and 2013. These measures, reductions from which are reflected in 
the Sacramento Ozone Plan's baseline inventories, fall into two 
categories: Measures that are subject to a waiver of federal preemption 
or authorization to adopt under CAA section 209 (``waiver or 
authorization measures'') and those for which the State is not required 
to obtain a waiver or authorization (``non-waiver or non-authorization 
measures''). Emissions reductions from waiver or authorization measures 
are fully creditable in attainment and RFP demonstrations and may be 
used to meet other CAA requirements, such as contingency measures. See 
EPA's proposed approval of the San Joaquin Valley 1-hour ozone plan at 
74 FR 33933, 33938 (July 14, 2009) and final approval at 75 FR 10420 
(March 8, 2010). The State's baseline non-waiver or non-authorization 
measures have generally all been approved by EPA into the SIP and as 
such are fully creditable for meeting CAA requirements. Based on CARB's 
adoption and implementation of measures in table 8 and emissions 
inventory estimates provided in CARB's 2013 Staff Report, EPA has 
determined that CARB has essentially met its commitments in Resolution 
09-19.\38\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \38\ The only remaining commitment measure in CARB's Revised 
2007 State Strategy as applicable in the SMA is a measure for new 
emissions standards for recreational boats. This measure is 
currently scheduled for a CARB Board hearing in February 2015.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

c. The Local Jurisdiction's RACM Analysis
    The local jurisdiction's RACM analysis was conducted by the 
metropolitan planning organization (MPO) for the Sacramento Metro 
region, the Sacramento Area Council of Governments (SACOG). This 
analysis, which focused on transportation control measures (TCMs), and 
its results are described in Appendix D of the 2009 Plan and 2013 Plan 
Update.
    SACOG and SMAQMD jointly compiled a list of potential control 
measures from the following sources: Clean Air Act Section 108(f) 
measures; Measures considered in the San Francisco Bay Area, San 
Joaquin Valley and South Coast Air Quality Management District RACM 
analyses; a SMAQMD Workshop; and the Metropolitan Transportation Plan 
2035 Draft Project List. The TCM development process and draft lists of 
potential TCMs were presented at public meetings on ten different dates 
from September 10, 2007-March 6,

[[Page 61810]]

2008. These included discussions at SACOG's Regional Planning 
Partnership; Land Use, Housing and Air Quality Committee; \39\ 
Transportation Committee; Flood Management Committee; Government 
Relations and Public Affairs Committee; and by the Board of Directors. 
This process resulted in a thorough list of control measures for 
consideration as potential TCMs, which could be considered as RACM.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \39\ The Land Use, Housing and Air Quality Committee 
subsequently became the Climate and Air Quality Committee and later 
became part of Land Use and Natural Resource Committee.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Attachment A-2 in Appendix D of the 2013 Plan Update lists the 
potential control measures, organized by category, and notes whether 
they are considered RACM, and if not, the reasoned justification they 
were not found to be RACM. The measures that have been determined to be 
RACM were included in the Sacramento Ozone Plan as TCMs.
3. Proposed Actions on RACM and Adopted Control Strategy
    The State, Districts, and SACOG have identified and otherwise 
provided for the implementation of a comprehensive set of measures that 
are among the most stringent in the nation, and we are proposing to 
approve the RACM demonstration in the Sacramento Ozone Plan.
    Because they will strengthen the California SIP and were included 
in the Districts' list of RACM measures, we are proposing to approve 
the Districts' commitments to adopt and implement specific control 
measures, to the extent that these commitments have not already been 
fulfilled, by the specific years described in tables 6 and 7 above and 
in Section 7 of the 2013 Plan Update.
    Based on our review of the State's RACM analysis and adopted rules, 
we propose to find that the Sacramento Ozone Plan provides for 
implementation of all RACM necessary to demonstrate expeditious 
attainment of the 1997 8-hour ozone standard and to meet any related 
RFP requirements in the SMA, consistent with the applicable 
requirements of CAA section 172(c)(1) and 40 CFR 51.912.

D. Attainment Demonstration

1. Requirements for Attainment Demonstrations
    CAA section 172(c) and 182 requires a state to submit a plan for 
each of its subpart 2 nonattainment areas that demonstrates attainment 
of the applicable ambient air quality standard as expeditiously as 
practicable but no later than the specified attainment date. Under the 
ozone implementation rule, an attainment demonstration must meet the 
requirements of 40 CFR 51.112. The adequacy of an attainment 
demonstration shall be demonstrated by means of a photochemical grid 
model or any other analytical method determined by the Administrator, 
in the Administrator's discretion, to be at least as effective. CAA 
section 182(c)(2)(A). For each nonattainment area, the state must 
provide for implementation of all control measures needed for 
attainment no later than the beginning of the attainment year ozone 
season.
2. Air Quality Modeling
    CAA section 182(c)(2)(A) requires SIPs for ozone nonattainment 
areas to include a ``demonstration that the plan, as revised, will 
provide for attainment of the ozone [NAAQS] by the applicable 
attainment date. This attainment demonstration must be based on 
photochemical grid modeling or any other analytical method determined 
by the Administrator, in the Administrator's discretion, to be at least 
as effective.'' Air quality modeling is used to establish emissions 
attainment targets, that is, the combination of emissions of ozone 
precursors that the area can accommodate without exceeding the relevant 
standard, and to assess whether the proposed control strategy will 
result in attainment of that standard. Air quality modeling is 
performed for a base year and compared to air quality monitoring data 
from that year in order to evaluate model performance. Once the 
performance is determined to be acceptable, future year changes to the 
emissions inventory are simulated to determine the relationship between 
emissions reductions and changes in ambient air quality throughout the 
air basin. The procedures for modeling ozone as part of an attainment 
demonstration are contained in EPA's ``Guidance on the Use of Models 
and Other Analyses for Demonstrating Attainment of Air Quality Goals 
for the 8-Hour Ozone and PM2.5 NAAQS and Regional Haze'' 
\40\ (``Guidance'').
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \40\ ``Guidance on the Use of Models and Other Analyses for 
Demonstrating Attainment of Air Quality Goals for the 8-Hour Ozone 
and PM2.5 NAAQS and Regional Haze'', EPA-454/B-07-002, 
April 2007. Additional EPA modeling guidance can be found in 
``Guideline on Air Quality Models'' in 40 CFR part 51, Appendix W.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The air quality modeling that underpins the 2013 Plan Update is 
described in Chapter 6 and documented in Appendix B. We provide a brief 
description of the modeling and a summary of our evaluation of it 
below. More detailed information about the modeling and our evaluation 
are available in section V of the TSD.
    The 2013 Plan Update uses the same model results, including the 
modeling protocol,\41\ air quality modeling selection, episode 
selection, model domain and spatial resolution, boundary and initial 
conditions, meteorological model selection and set-up, and emission 
inventory set-up as was used in the 2007 San Joaquin Valley (SJV) Ozone 
Plan approved by EPA on March 1, 2012 (77 FR 12652). The 2007 SJV Ozone 
Plan also includes an extensive meteorological and air quality model 
performance evaluation over the modeling domain.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \41\ ``Photochemical Modeling Protocol for Developing Strategies 
to Attain the Federal 8-hour Ozone Air Quality Standard in Central 
California,'' California Air Resources Board, May 22, 2007.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The 2013 Plan Update, Appendix B, includes an additional air 
quality model performance evaluation over the Sacramento nonattainment 
area, including a statistical analysis demonstrating adequate overall 
model performance. The attainment demonstration for a given monitoring 
location used only those days that satisfied a number of performance 
criteria.
    The 2013 Plan Update's Appendix B also includes documentation on 
the Relative Reduction Factors, which are the key results from the 
model for use in the attainment test. Additionally, results of modeling 
runs with various combinations of VOC and NOX reductions are 
included to illustrate alternative control strategies and establish a 
``carrying capacity,'' a combination of VOC and NOX 
emissions consistent with attainment of the ozone standard. Emission 
reductions using an updated baseline and future emission inventory were 
also compared to existing model results and found sufficient to achieve 
attainment. EPA proposes to conclude that the attainment tests are 
adequate and consistent with EPA guidance.
    In addition to a modeled attainment demonstration, which focuses on 
locations with an air quality monitor, EPA generally requires an 
unmonitored area analysis. The unmonitored area analysis uses a 
combination of model output and ambient data to identify areas that 
might exceed the NAAQS if monitors were located there. It ensures that 
a control strategy leads to reductions in ozone in unmonitored 
locations that might have baseline (and future) ambient ozone levels 
exceeding the NAAQS. In order to examine unmonitored areas in all 
portions of the modeling domain, EPA recommends use

[[Page 61811]]

of interpolated spatial fields of ambient data combined with gridded 
modeled outputs. Guidance, p. 29. The CARB Staff Report, Appendix F 
includes an unmonitored area analysis using EPA's MATS software. Based 
on this analysis CARB concluded that there are no unmonitored ozone 
peaks in the modeling domain that would violate the 1997 8-hour ozone 
standards.
    Finally, the 2013 Ozone Plan's Chapter 10 includes a ``weight-of-
evidence demonstration,'' containing supplemental analyses in support 
of the attainment demonstration. These analyses include ozone air 
quality trends, meteorologically adjusted ozone trends, and precursor 
emission trends, all of which show continued progress and support the 
conclusion that the attainment demonstration is sound.
    Based on our review, EPA proposes to find that the air quality 
modeling provides an adequate basis for the RACM/RACT, RFP, and 
attainment demonstrations in the Sacramento 2013 8-Hour Ozone SIP.
3. Attainment Demonstration
    EPA's review and analysis of the State's attainment demonstration 
involves evaluating measures adopted and approved by EPA (through 
rulemaking, waiver, or authorizations) and measures not yet submitted 
to EPA. Tables 9 and 10 show State and Districts measures approved by 
EPA and credited towards attainment.\42\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \42\ The 2013 Plan Update and CARB's 2013 Staff Report describe 
nonregulatory programs providing emissions reductions through 
agreements resulting in replacement of older locomotives with 
cleaner engines. The Union Pacific (UP) rail yard located in 
Roseville has benefitted from programs targeting NOX and 
Particulate Matter (PM) emissions. ARB utilized Proposition 1B Goods 
Movement Emission Reduction Program (``Prop 1B'') funding for 15 
Tier 2 ``regional'' line haul locomotives. UP also operates six 
ultra-low emitting genset switch locomotives within the Roseville 
rail yards. The UP 9900, an experimental Tier 3+ locomotive (Tier 4 
PM, and Tier 3+ NOX), has been assigned to UP Roseville 
and operates primarily in Northern California. CARB's 2013 Staff 
Report indicates 0.07 tpd of NOX reduction from the 
State's Prop 1B. EPA is not crediting the 0.07 tpd NOX 
reduction associated with Prop 1B in the Sacramento attainment 
demonstration because an enforceable measure supporting the 
reductions has not been submitted to and approved by EPA for 
inclusion in the SIP. EPA has adopted federal engines standards for 
locomotives and the resulting reductions from the federal standards 
are credited in the 2018 inventory. See 73 FR 37096 (June 30, 2008) 
and 40 CFR part 1033, 1065, and 1068 for more details regarding the 
federal locomotive standards.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Although the majority of the measures in the State's Revised 2007 
State Strategy have been approved by EPA, a small number of measures 
have not, including Expanded Vehicle Retirement, Expanded Off-Road 
Recreational Vehicle Emissions Standards, and New Emissions Standards 
for Recreational Boats.\43\ Of these, only the latter measure has not 
yet been adopted by CARB. In Resolution 13-39 to adopt the 2013 Plan 
Update, the CARB Board indicated that the State and the Districts had 
completed adoption of regulations that achieve emissions reductions 
necessary to demonstrate attainment. The State did not rely on 
reductions from the three aforementioned measures in its attainment 
demonstration.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \43\ On July 25, 2013, the CARB Board adopted a measure to 
reduce emissions from off-highway recreational vehicles. The final 
rulemaking package has not been approved by State's OAL. For 
additional information about this measure and its status, see http://www.arb.ca.gov/regact/2013/ohrv2013/ohrv2013.htm.

  Table 9--Creditable State Measures Applicable to SMA, Adoption Dates,
                           and Current Status
------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Defined State measures        Adoption date         EPA approval
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Smog Check Improvements.......  August 31, 2009..  Elements approved, 75
                                                    FR 38023 (July 1,
                                                    2010).
Modifications to Reformulated   June 14, 2007....  Approved, 75 FR 26653
 Gasoline Program.                                  (May 12, 2010).
Cleaner In-use Heavy Duty       December 16, 2010  Approved 77 FR 20308,
 Trucks.                         \a\.               April 4, 2012.
Clean Up Existing Harbor        November 15, 2007  Authorization
 Crafts.                                            granted; 76 FR
                                                    77521, December 13,
                                                    2011.
Cleaner In-Use Off-Road         December 17, 2010  Authorization
 Equipment (over 25 hp).                            granted; (78 FR
                                                    58090, 9/20/13).
Additional Evaporative          September 25,      Similar to federal
 Emission Standards (for Off-    2008.              requirement at 40
 Road Sources) (e.g., Portable                      CFR 1060.105.
 Outboard Marine Tanks and
 Components).
Consumer Products Program.....  November 17, 2007  Approved, 74 FR
                                                    57074, November 4,
                                                    2009.
                                June 26, 2008....  Approved, 76 FR
                                                    27613, May 12, 2011.
                                September 24,      Approved, 77 FR 7535,
                                 2009.              February 13, 2012.
                                November 18, 2010  Proposed rulemaking
                                                    and direct final
                                                    notices signed on
                                                    August 5, 2014 and
                                                    pending publication.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
\a\ On April 25, 2014, the CARB Board approved Resolution 14-3 to revise
  CARB's Truck and Bus Rule. The final rulemaking package with the
  revisions to the Truck and Bus Rule has not yet been submitted to the
  State's Office of Administrative Law (OAL) for their approval.

    The Districts have made progress in adopting measures committed to 
in the 2009 Plan and 2013 Plan Update. Table 10 lists the Districts' 
prior commitment measures in the 2013 Plan Update that have been 
adopted and subsequently approved by EPA. These prior commitment 
measures provide reductions that EPA is now crediting in the State's 
attainment demonstration below in table 11.

 Table 10--Creditable Reductions From New Districts Measures Approved by EPA, Estimated Emissions Reductions (2018 Planning Inventory, tpd), and Current
                                                                         Status
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                              Reductions
                Rule No.                           Rule title         --------------------------                       EPA approval
                                                                           NOX          VOC
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
YSAQMD 2.37.............................  Large Water Heaters and              0.5            -  75 FR 25778 (May 10, 2010).
                                           Small Boilers.
PCAPCD 218..............................  Architectural Coatings.....            -          0.2  75 FR 18068 (December 5, 2011).
PCAPCD 245..............................  Surface Coating of Metal               -         <0.1  76 FR 30025 (May 24, 2011).
                                           Parts and Products.

[[Page 61812]]

 
SMAQMD 459..............................  Automotive Refinishing.....            -          0.1  77 FR 47536 (August 9, 2012).
FRAQMD 3.22.............................  Internal Combustion Engines         <0.1            -  77 FR 12493 (March 1, 2012).
PCAPCD 247..............................  Natural Gas-Fired Water              0.5            -  Proposed rulemaking and direct final notices signed on
                                           Heaters, Small Boilers,                                September 5, 2014 and pending publication.
                                           and Process Heaters.
                                                                      --------------------------
    Totals..............................  ...........................          1.0          0.3
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Table 11 below summarizes the attainment demonstration and 
associated reductions that are relied upon in the SMA to demonstrate 
attainment by June 15, 2019. Lines A and B are the 2002 and 2018 
baseline inventories in CARB's 2013 Staff Report. Line C1 in table 11 
represents adjustments made by EPA to remove credit for reductions for 
measures that are not yet in the SIP but for which the State had taken 
credit for in the baseline inventory in line B. Line C2 represents 
adjustments made by EPA for reductions from recent measures approved 
into the SIP that were not credited by the State in Line B. The 
attainment target in line E was derived from the Sacramento Ozone 
Plan's air quality modeling analysis. After accounting for all 
creditable measures and then comparing the remaining inventory against 
the attainment target, the NOX and VOC targets have been 
met. Therefore, the Sacramento Ozone Plan adequately demonstrates 
attainment of the 1997 ozone NAAQS by June 15, 2019.

Table 11--Summary of SMA Attainment Demonstration for 8-Hour Ozone NAAQS
                    [Tons per average summer weekday]
------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                          NOX      VOC
------------------------------------------------------------------------
A. CARB adjusted 2002 emissions inventory with            164.8    146.7
 existing controls \a\................................
B. CARB adjusted 2018 emissions inventory with             76.9     98.7
 existing controls \a\................................
C1. EPA adjustments for measures credited by State in      +0.5     +1.5
 Line B for which EPA has determined are not
 creditable at this time \b\..........................
C2. EPA adjustments for measures approved by EPA (see      -1.0     -0.3
 table 10) but not credited by State in adjusted 2018
 inventory in Line B..................................
D. EPA adjusted 2018 inventory with controls (Line B +     76.4     99.9
 Line C1 + Line C2)...................................
E. 2018 attainment target \c\.........................     76.5    107.1
Attainment target met? (Is Line D less than Line E?)..      Yes      Yes
------------------------------------------------------------------------
\a\ CARB 2013 Staff Report, tables C3 and C4, CARB, October 22, 2013.
\b\ See TSD.
\c\ CARB 2013 Staff Report, table B2.

4. Proposed Action on the Attainment Demonstration
    In order to approve a SIP's attainment demonstration, EPA must make 
several findings and approve the plan's proposed attainment date.
    First, we must find that the demonstration's technical bases, 
including the emissions inventories and air quality modeling, are 
adequate. As discussed above in sections IV.B and IV.D.2, we are 
proposing to approve the emissions inventories and air quality modeling 
on which the Sacramento Ozone Plan's attainment demonstration and other 
provisions are based.
    Second, we must find that the SIP submittal provides for 
expeditious attainment through the implementation of all RACM. As 
discussed above in section IV.C.2, we are proposing to approve the RACM 
demonstration in the Sacramento Ozone Plan as meeting the requirements 
of CAA section 172(c)(1).
    Third, EPA must find that the emissions reductions that are relied 
on for attainment are creditable. As discussed above in section IV.D.3, 
and detailed in the TSD, control measures providing creditable emission 
reductions sufficient to demonstrate attainment in the SMA have been 
approved by EPA.
    For the foregoing reasons, we are proposing to approve the 
attainment demonstration in the Sacramento Ozone Plan.

E. Rate of Progress and Reasonable Further Progress Demonstrations

1. Requirements for Rate of Progress
    Section 182(b)(1) requires, for areas classified as moderate or 
above, a SIP revision providing for rate of progress (ROP), defined as 
a reduction from the adjusted 1990 baseline emissions of at least 15% 
actual emissions of VOC, taking into account growth, during the first 6 
years following 1990 (i.e., 3 percent per year reduction from 1990 to 
1996). In addition, 40 CFR 51.905(a)(iii) provides that ``If the area 
has an outstanding obligation for an approved 1-hour ROP SIP, it must 
develop and submit to EPA all outstanding 1-hour ROP plans.'' Because 
EPA has not yet approved the entire 1-hour ROP plan for the SMA, we are 
addressing the remaining requirement as part of today's action.\44\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \44\ In its March 18, 1996 proposed rulemaking, EPA proposed to 
approve the Sacramento post-1996 ROP plan, and on January 8, 1997 
EPA finalized the Sacramento post-1996 ROP. See 62 FR 1174.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The CAA outlines and EPA guidance details the method for 
calculating the requirements for the 1990-1996 period. Section 
182(b)(1) requires that reductions: (1) Be in addition to those needed 
to offset any growth in emissions between the base year and the 
milestone year; (2) exclude emission reductions from four prescribed 
federal programs (i.e., the federal motor vehicle

[[Page 61813]]

control program (FMVCP), the federal Reid vapor pressure (RVP) 
requirements, any RACT corrections previously specified by EPA, and any 
Inspection and Maintenance (I/M) program corrections necessary to meet 
the basic I/M level); and (3) be calculated from an ``adjusted'' 
baseline relative to the year for which the reduction is applicable.
    The adjusted base year inventory excludes the emission reductions 
from fleet turnover between 1990 and 1996 and from Federal RVP 
regulations promulgated by November 15, 1990 or required under section 
211(h) of the Act. The net effect of these adjustments is that states 
are not able to take credit for emissions reductions that would result 
from fleet turnover of current federal standard cars and trucks, or 
from already existing federal fuel regulations. However, the SIP can 
take full credit for the benefits of any new (i.e., post-1990) vehicle 
emissions standards, as well as any other new federal or state motor 
vehicle or fuel program that will be implemented in the nonattainment 
area, including Tier I exhaust standards, new evaporative emissions 
standards, reformulated gasoline, enhanced inspection and maintenance, 
California low emissions vehicle program, transportation control 
measures, etc.
2. ROP Demonstration
    On November 15, 1993, in response to the 15 percent ROP 
requirements in section 182(b)(1)(A) of the Act, the State submitted 
ROP plans for Sacramento and other moderate and above nonattainment 
areas in California. The 1993 submittal was superseded by revised ROP 
plans submitted one year later. On November 15, 1994, CARB submitted a 
revision to the ``State of California Implementation Plan for Achieving 
and Maintaining the National Ambient Air Quality Standards.'' \45\ The 
SIP revision included: (a) The State's comprehensive ozone plan; (b) 
the State's previously adopted regulations; and (c) local plans 
addressing the ozone attainment demonstration and ROP requirements, 
including the ``Sacramento Area Proposed Attainment and Rate-of-
Progress Plans.'' On December 29, 1994, the State replaced the 
Sacramento proposed Attainment and ROP Plan with the ``Sacramento Area 
Attainment and Rate-of-Progress Plans.''
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \45\ See CARB Executive Order G-125-335 (February 24, 2006) and 
letter from Catherine Witherspoon, Executive Officer, CARB, to Wayne 
Nastri, Regional Administrator, EPA Region 9, letter with enclosures 
(February 13, 2013).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    In its March 18, 1996 notice of proposed rulemaking on the State's 
submittals (See 61 FR 10920), EPA indicated they would defer action on 
the portion of the Sacramento ROP plan applying to the initial 15 
percent demonstration. On January 8, 1997, EPA finalized its actions on 
the State's ROP submittals, and again deferred action the portion of 
the Sacramento ROP plan addressing the 15 percent reduction for the 
1990-1996 time frame (See 62 FR 1174).
    On February 24, 2006, the State submitted the 2002-2008 RFP Plan, 
which included Appendix F, ``1990-1996 15 Percent Reduction 
Demonstration'' for the Sacramento ozone nonattainment area (``15 
percent ROP demonstration'').\46\ The revised 15 percent ROP 
demonstration uses a 1990 average summer weekday emissions inventory as 
the base year inventory and addresses 1990-1996. A summary of the 15 
percent ROP demonstration is provided below in table 12. As the table 
shows, the Sacramento nonattainment area exceeds the required 15 
percent reduction for 1990-1996 timeframe. Significant measures put in 
place prior to or during the 1990-1996 period and relied upon in 15 
percent ROP Plan included: Reformulated Gasoline--Phases I and II, Low 
Emission Vehicles and Clean Fuels, Consumer Products--Phases I and II, 
and Antiperspirants/Deodorants. In addition, the Districts adopted and 
implemented numerous solvent and coatings rules to reduce VOC 
emissions. The TSD for today's action includes compilations of CARB's 
and the Districts' measures adopted since 1990.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \46\ The February 24, 2006 submittal letter from Catherine 
Witherspoon, Executive Officer, CARB, to Wayne Nastri, Regional 
Administrator, EPA Region 9, highlights the 15 percent ROP 
demonstration as a significant part of the 2002-2008 RFP Plan 
submittal. See Executive Order G-125.335. In addition, the 
resolutions adopted by the Districts boards include language 
approving the 15% ROP demonstration. E.g., See SMAQMD Resolution No. 
2006-010.

         Table 12--15% Rate-of-Progress Analysis (1-Hour Ozone)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                   Tons/
                    VOC emission calculations                       day
                                                                    \a\
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1. 1990 baseline VOC inventory..................................     236
2. Non-creditable FMVCP/RVP adjustments.........................       7
3. Adjusted 1990 baseline VOC inventory (Line 1-Line 2).........     229
4. 1996 VOC inventory forecast with existing controls + ERCs....     189
5.a. 1996 Reductions from adjusted 1990 baseline (Line 3-Line 4)      40
5.b. Non-creditable RACT & I/M adjustments......................       3
6. 1996 Forecasted VOC creditable reductions since 1990 (Line         37
 5.a--Line 5.b).................................................
7. 1996 Forecasted % VOC creditable reductions since 1990 (Line      16%
 6 / Line 3)....................................................
8. RFP % Reduction required from 1990 adjusted baseline VOC          15%
 inventory......................................................
9. Forecasted % VOC surplus (Line 8-Line 7).....................      1%
------------------------------------------------------------------------
\a\ Sacramento Regional Nonattainment Area 8-Hour Ozone Reasonable
  Further Progress Plan 2002-2008, February 2006, Appendix F: 1990-1996
  15 Percent Reduction Demonstration.

3. Requirements for Reasonable Further Progress
    CAA sections 172(c)(2) and 182(b)(1) require plans for 
nonattainment areas to provide for reasonable further progress (RFP). 
RFP is defined in section 171(1) as ``such annual incremental 
reductions in emissions of the relevant air pollutant as are required 
by this part or may reasonably be required by the Administrator for the 
purpose of ensuring attainment of the applicable [NAAQS] by the 
applicable date.''
    The ozone implementation rule requires submittal of an RFP plan at 
the same time as the attainment demonstration. CAA section 182(c)(2)(B) 
requires that ozone nonattainment areas classified as serious or higher 
to submit no later than 3 years after designation for the 8-hour ozone 
NAAQS an RFP SIP providing for an average of 3 percent per year of VOC 
and/or NOX emissions reductions for (1) the 6-year period 
immediately following the baseline year; and (2) all remaining 3-year 
periods after the first 6-year period out to the area's attainment 
date.
    The RFP plan must describe the control measures that provide for 
meeting the reasonable further progress milestones for the area, the 
timing of implementation of those measures, and the expected reductions 
in emissions of attainment plan precursors. See 40 CFR 51.910(a).
a. NOX substitution
    The implementation rule interprets the RFP requirements for the 
1997 ozone standard, and requires that 8-hour nonattainment areas 
classified under subpart 2 as moderate and above achieve a 15 percent 
VOC emission reduction, accounting for growth, in the first 6 years 
after the baseline. 40 CFR

[[Page 61814]]

51.910(a)(1). CAA Section 182(c)(2)(C) allows for the substitution of 
NOX emission reductions in place of VOC reductions to meet 
the RFP requirements. Because Sacramento is classified as Severe-15, if 
the State intends to use NOX substitution to meet its RFP 
milestones, it must demonstrate, and EPA must approve, a demonstration 
showing a 15 percent VOC reduction in the first six years after the 
baseline for the Sacramento Area. See 40 CFR 51.910(a)(1)(ii). Upon EPA 
approval of the 15 percent VOC reduction, any VOC reduction shortfalls 
in the RFP demonstration can be met by using NOX emission 
reductions. According to EPA's NOX Substitution 
Guidance,\47\ the substitution of NOX reductions for VOC 
reductions must be done on a percentage basis, rather than a straight 
ton-for-ton exchange. There are two steps for substituting 
NOX for VOC. First, an equivalency demonstration must show 
that the cumulative RFP emission reductions are consistent with the 
NOX and VOC emission reductions determined in the ozone 
attainment modeling demonstration. Second, specified reductions in 
NOX and VOC emissions should be accomplished in the interim 
period between the 2002 base year and the attainment date, consistent 
with the continuous RFP emission reduction requirement.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \47\ Environmental Protection Agency (OAQPS), ``NOX 
Substitution Guidance'', December 1993.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

4. RFP Demonstrations
    The RFP demonstrations for the 1997 ozone standard are found in 
three documents: The 2002-2008 RFP Plan, 2009 Plan, and the 2013 Plan 
Update. The demonstrations address VOC and NOX for 2011, 
2014, 2017 milestone years and the 2018 attainment year, and 
use the 2002 average summer weekday emissions inventory as the base 
year inventory. The most significant State measures providing 
reductions during the 2002-2018 time frame and relied upon for the RFP 
demonstration include Low Emission Vehicles II and III standards, Zero 
Emissions Vehicle standards, California Reformulated Gasoline Phase 3, 
and Cleaner In-Use Heavy-Duty Trucks. The TSD for today's action 
includes a compilation of CARB measures adopted between 1990-2013. 
State measures adopted since 2007 and the estimated reductions, are 
described in the IV.C and IV.D of this notice. Additional information 
regarding implementation and expected reductions from CARB's adopted 
measures is also available on CARB's rulemaking activity Web site.\48\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \48\ See http://www.arb.ca.gov/regact/regact.htm.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The RFP demonstration is expressed in terms of cumulative emissions 
reductions and percent of emissions reductions per year. For example, 
see table 13-1 in the 2013 Ozone Plan. The demonstration in the 2013 
Plan Update supersedes the previously submitted demonstration for 2014, 
2017, and 2018 in the 2009 Plan. For 2008 and 2011, EPA adjusted and 
revised the demonstrations in the 2002-2008 RFP Plan and 2009 Plan. 
This was necessary because the State's 2013 Plan Update did not include 
RFP demonstrations for the milestones years that had already passed 
(i.e., 2008 and 2011). The corrections are detailed in the TSD 
supporting today's action.
    The RFP demonstrations indicate the combination of VOC and 
NOX reductions for each of the milestone years are in excess 
of the RFP targets. The excess serves as a contingency measure reserve 
and provides the 3 percent of emission reductions necessary to meet the 
contingency measure requirement for each milestone year. See table 13-1 
of 2013 Plan Update. We discuss this contingency reserve below in the 
section on contingency measures. For the purposes of our evaluation of 
the RFP demonstration as presented in table 13 below, we have included 
the contingency reserve on Line 24. This allows us to evaluate if the 
2013 Ozone Plan would demonstrate the required RFP with the contingency 
reserve. We note that the RFP demonstration presented in table 13 is 
based on the State's estimate of the emissions levels needed for 
attainment in the 2013 Plan Update.

                                                   Table 13--Calculation of RFP Demonstrations for SMA
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 VOC emission calculations (tons/
               day)                       2002               2008 a              2011 b              2014 c              2017 c              2018 c
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1. 2002 Baseline VOC inventory c.  147...............  147...............  147...............  147...............  147...............  147
2. Non-creditable FMVCP/RVP        0.................  13 e..............  11 e..............  11................  12................  12
 adjustments d.
3. Adjusted 2002 baseline VOC      ..................  134...............  136...............  136...............  135...............  135
 inventory (Line 1-Line 2).
4. VOC emissions forecast with     ..................  120 e.............  120 e.............  106...............  100...............  99
 existing controls + ERCs.
5. Adjustments to remove           ..................  --................  2.................  2.................  2.................  2
 reductions from measures not yet
 approved by EPA f.
6. RFP commitment for VOC          ..................  --................  0.................  0.................  0.................  0
 reductions from new measures.
7. Forecasted VOC creditable       ..................  15................  15................  28................  33................  34
 reductions since 2002 (ine 3-
 Line 4-Line 5 + Line 6).
8. Forecasted % VOC reductions     ..................  11%...............  11%...............  21%...............  25%...............  26%
 since 2002 (Line 7 / Line 3).
9. RFP % reduction required from   ..................  18%...............  27%...............  36%...............  45%...............  48%
 2002 adjusted baseline VOC
 inventory g.
10. Forecasted % VOC shortfall     ..................  7%................  16%...............  15%...............  20%...............  22%
 (Line 9-Line 8).
11. VOC shortfall previously       ..................  --................  7%................  16%...............  16%...............  20%
 addressed provided by NOX
 substitution %.
12. Actual VOC shortfall.........  ..................  7%................  9%................  0%................  4%................  2%
NOX Emission Calculations (tons/
 day).
13. 2002 Baseline NOX inventory a  165...............  165...............  165...............  165...............  165...............  165
14. Non-creditable FMVCP           0.................  7 e...............  11 e..............  10................  11................  11
 adjustments d.
15. Adjusted 2002 baseline NOX     ..................  158...............  154...............  155...............  154...............  154
 inventory (Line 13-Line 14).
16. NOX emissions forecast with    ..................  126 e.............  126 e.............  93................  80................  77
 existing controls + ERCs.
17. Adjustments to remove          ..................  ..................  0.................  3.................  1.................  1
 reductions from measures not yet
 approved by EPA f.
18. RFP commitment for NOX         ..................  ..................  0.................  0.................  0.................  0
 reductions from new measures.
19. Forecasted NOx creditable      ..................  32................  29................  59................  74................  76
 reductions since 2002 (Line 15-
 Line 16-Line 17 + Line 18).
20. Forecasted % NOX reductions    ..................  21%...............  19%...............  38%...............  48%...............  50%
 since 2002 (Line 19 / Line 16).

[[Page 61815]]

 
21. NOX previously used for VOC    ..................  0%................  7%................  16%...............  16%...............  20%
 shortfall by NOX substitution %.
22. NOX available for VOC          ..................  21%...............  12%...............  22%...............  32%...............  30%
 shortfall by NOX substitution
 and contingency %.
23. NOX substitution needed for    ..................  7%................  9%................  0%................  4%................  2%
 VOC shortfall % (Same as Line
 12).
24. Forecasted % NOX reduction     ..................  14%...............  3%................  22%...............  28%...............  27%
 surplus (Line 22-Line 23).
25. Contingency measure reserve    ..................  Yes...............  Yes...............  Yes...............  Yes...............  Yes
 achieved?.
26. RFP achieved?................  ..................  Yes...............  Yes...............  Yes...............  Yes...............  Yes
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
a Sacramento Regional Nonattainment Area 8-Hour Ozone Reasonable Further Progress Plan 2002-2008, February 2006, Chapter 6, table 6-1.
b Sacramento Regional 8-Hour Ozone Attainment and Reasonable Further Progress Plan, December 19, 2008, Chapter 5, tables 5-2 and 5-3, adjusted by EPA.
c Sacramento Regional 8-Hour Ozone Attainment and Reasonable Further Progress Plan, September 26, 2013, Chapter 13, table 13-1.
d CARB provided the non-creditable FMVCP/RVP adjustments in documents listed immediately above.
e Adjusted by EPA for consistency with baseline in 2013 Ozone Plan. See TSD.
f See TSD. Does not include EPA adjustments for measures approved by EPA (see table 10) but not yet credited by State in RFP demonstration.
g RFP reduction requirements contained in EPA's Final Rule to Implement the 8-Hour Ozone NAAQS (Phase 2) published in the November 29, 2005 Federal
  Register. See 70 FR 70612.
Note: Because of rounding convention, values in table may not reflect sum of underlying numbers.

5. Proposed Action on the ROP and RFP Demonstrations
    EPA has reviewed the ROP and RFP demonstrations in the 2002-2008 
RFP Plan, 2009 Plan, and the 2013 Plan Update and has determined that 
they were prepared consistent with applicable EPA regulations and 
policies. As seen in table 12, the Sacramento nonattainment area 
achieves the 15 percent VOC ROP for the 1990-1996 timeframe. Because 
the Sacramento area has achieved a 15 percent VOC emission reduction, 
accounting for growth, in the first 6 years after the 1990 baseline, 
the area is eligible to use NOX substitution in its RFP 
demonstration for the 1997 ozone standard. As seen in table 13, 
emissions reductions for VOC and NOX, after setting aside a 
3 percent contingency measures reserve, are below the RFP percent 
reduction targets for 2008, 2011, 2014, 2017, and 2018 and demonstrate 
that the SMA has met its RFP targets.
    Based on our evaluation above, we propose to find that: Appendix F 
of the 2002-2008 RFP Plan provides for VOC reductions of at least 15 
percent from 1990 baseline emissions as required by CAA section 
182(b)(1); the 2002-2008 RFP Plan provides for at least an 18 percent 
reduction (VOC with NOX substitution) from 2002 baseline 
emissions as required by CAA section 182(b)(1) and 40 CFR 51.910; and 
(3) the 2009 Plan and 2013 Plan Update provide for at least a 3 percent 
annual reduction (VOC with NOX substitution) averaged over a 
consecutive 3-year period for the SMA to meet its RFP milestones for 
2011, 2014, 2017, and 2018 as required by CAA section 182(c)(2)(B) and 
40 CFR 51.910.

F. Contingency Measures

1. Requirements for Contingency Measures
    Under the CAA, ozone nonattainment areas classified under subpart 2 
as moderate or above must include in their SIPs contingency measures 
consistent with sections 172(c)(9) and 182(c)(9). Contingency measures 
are additional measures to be implemented in the event the area fails 
to meet an RFP milestone or fails to attain by the applicable 
attainment date. These contingency measures must be fully adopted rules 
or control measures that are ready to be implemented upon failure to 
meet the milestones or attainment. The SIP should contain trigger 
mechanisms for the contingency measures, specify a schedule for 
implementation, and indicate that the measure will be implemented 
without significant further action by the state or by EPA. See 68 FR 
32802 at 32837 and 70 FR 71612 at 71650.
    Additional guidance on the CAA contingency measure provisions is 
found in the General Preamble, 57 FR 13498, 13510-13512 and 13520. The 
guidance indicates that states should adopt and submit contingency 
measures sufficient to provide a 3 percent emissions reduction from the 
adjusted RFP baseline. EPA concludes this level of reductions is 
generally acceptable to offset emission increases while states are 
correcting their SIPs. These reductions should be beyond what is needed 
to meet the attainment and/or RFP requirement. States may use 
reductions of either VOC or NOX or a combination of both to 
meet the contingency measure requirements. 57 FR at 13520, footnote 6.
    EPA guidance provides that contingency measures may be implemented 
early, i.e., prior to the milestone or attainment date.\49\ Consistent 
with this policy, states are allowed to use excess reductions from 
already adopted measures to meet the CAA sections 172(c)(9) and 
182(c)(9) contingency measures requirement. This is because the purpose 
of contingency measures is to provide extra reductions that are not 
relied on for RFP or attainment, and that will provide a cushion while 
the plan is being revised to fully address the failure to meet the 
required milestone. Nothing in the CAA precludes a state from 
implementing such measures before they are triggered. This approach has 
been approved by EPA in numerous SIPs. See 62 FR 15844 (April 3, 1997) 
(approval of the Indiana portion of the Chicago area 15 percent ROP 
plan); 62 FR 66279 (December 18, 1997) (approval of the Illinois 
portion of the Chicago area 15 percent ROP plan); 66 FR 30811 (June 8, 
2001) (proposed approval of the Rhode Island post-1996 ROP plan); 66 FR 
586 and 66 FR 634 (January 3, 2001) (approval of the Massachusetts and 
Connecticut 1-hour ozone attainment demonstrations). In the only 
adjudicated challenge to this approach, the court upheld it. See LEAN 
v. EPA, 382 F.3d 575 (5th Cir. 2004). 70 FR 71612 at 71651.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \49\ Memorandum, G.T. Helms, Chief, Ozone/Carbon Monoxide 
Programs Branch to Air Directors, ``Contingency Measures for Ozone 
and Carbon Monoxide (CO) Redesignations,'' June 1, 1992.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

[[Page 61816]]

2. Contingency Measures in the Sacramento Ozone Plan
    The Sacramento Ozone Plan relies on emission reductions in excess 
of RFP as contingency measures if the SMA fails to meet RFP 
requirements. If the SMA fails to attain by June 15, 2019, the 
Sacramento Ozone Plan relies on additional incremental emissions 
reductions in 2019 from fleet turnover resulting from continued 
implementation of measures in the Revised 2007 State Strategy.
    Contingency measures for failure to make RFP. To provide for 
contingency measures for failure to make RFP, the SIP relies on surplus 
NOX reductions in the RFP demonstration. Table 13 
demonstrates that milestone years (i.e., 2008, 2011, 2014, 2017) and 
the attainment year (i.e., 2018) have NOX reductions 
exceeding what is required for RFP and the 3 percent contingency.
    Contingency measures for failure to attain. To provide contingency 
measures for failure to attain, the SIP relies on the additional 
incremental emissions reductions resulting from fleet turnover in 
calendar year 2019 (the year after the attainment year). Additional 
emissions reductions resulting from turnover in the on- and off-road 
mobile source fleet in 2019 may be used to meet the attainment 
contingency measure requirement. Table 14 below demonstrates that the 
Sacramento Ozone Plan has sufficient VOC reductions in 2019 to provide 
at least a three percent reserve for use as a possible attainment 
contingency measure. In addition, the Sacramento Ozone Plan also 
provides NOX reductions in 2019 that are available for use 
in support of the attainment contingency measure, although the 
NOX reductions alone do not provide a three percent reserve 
unless combined with a portion of the VOC reductions.

    Table 14--Calculation of Post-2018 Attainment Contingency Measure
------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Emission calculations              VOC tpd            NOX tpd
------------------------------------------------------------------------
A. 2018 Attainment Year Inventory  107.1.............  76.5
 Target.
B. CARB 2019 Emissions Forecast..  99.8..............  74.4
C. EPA Adjustments to 2019         +1.5..............  +0.5
 Inventory.
D. Adjusted 2019 Inventory (Line   101.3.............  74.9
 B + Line C).
E. Forecasted 2019 Creditable      5.8...............  1.6
 Reductions (Since 2018)
 Exceeding the Attainment Target
 Since 2018 (Line A-Line D).
F. Forecasted Percent Reductions   5.7%..............  2.1%
 Since 2018 (Line E / Line D).
G. Percent Reduction Required      3%................  na \a\
 From 2018 Adjusted Baseline
 Inventory.
H. Attainment Contingency Measure  Yes...............  na \a\
 Met? (Is Line F > or = Line G?).
------------------------------------------------------------------------
\a\ not applicable (na) because requirement already met by VOC
  reductions.

    These reductions are from fully creditable measures. They are not 
relied on to demonstrate either attainment or RFP. For these reasons, 
these post-2018 emissions reductions may be used to fulfill the 
attainment contingency measure requirement.
    As discussed above, EPA is proposing to approve both the RFP and 
attainment demonstrations in the Sacramento Ozone Plan because we have 
determined the Sacramento Ozone Plan provides sufficient VOC emissions 
reductions to meet these requirements.
3. Proposed Action on the Contingency Measures
    Contingency measures for failure to make RFP. As discussed above in 
section IV.D, we are proposing to approve the SMA's RFP demonstration. 
As shown in the RFP demonstration in table 13, there are excess 
NOX reductions of 3 percent or greater in each milestone 
year. These excess reductions are beyond those needed to meet the next 
RFP percent reduction requirement and address the RFP contingency 
measure requirement for 2008, 2011, 2014, 2017, and 2018.
    Contingency measures for failure to attain. The incremental 
additional emissions reductions that will occur in 2019 (the year after 
the attainment year) from the continuing implementation of both on- and 
off-road motor vehicle controls may be used to meet the contingency 
measure requirement for failure to attain. As shown in table 14, there 
is excess VOC reductions of 3 percent or greater in 2019. These excess 
reductions fulfill the attainment contingency measure requirement for 
2019.
    The Sacramento Ozone Plan includes measures and reductions that 
collectively meet the CAA's minimum requirements (e.g., no additional 
rulemaking, surplus to attainment and RFP needs) and allow us to 
determine the reductions are at least equivalent to the current 
estimate of one year's worth of RFP. Therefore, we are proposing to 
approve the RFP and attainment contingency measure provisions in the 
Sacramento Ozone Plan.

G. Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets for Transportation Conformity

1. Requirements for Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets
    CAA section 176(c) requires federal actions in nonattainment and 
maintenance areas to conform to the goals of SIPs. This means that such 
actions will not: (1) Cause or contribute to violations of a NAAQS, (2) 
worsen the severity of an existing violation, or (3) delay timely 
attainment of any NAAQS or any interim milestone.
    Actions that involve Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) or 
Federal Transit Administration (FTA) funding or approval are subject to 
EPA's transportation conformity rule, which is codified in 40 CFR part 
93, subpart A. Under this rule, metropolitan planning organizations 
(MPOs) in nonattainment and maintenance areas coordinate with state and 
local air quality and transportation agencies, EPA, FHWA, and FTA to 
demonstrate that an area's regional transportation plans (RTP) and 
transportation improvement programs (TIP) conform to the applicable 
SIP. This demonstration is typically done by showing that estimated 
emissions from existing and planned highway and transit systems are 
less than or equal to the motor vehicle emissions budgets (MVEBs or 
``budgets'') contained in the SIP. An attainment, maintenance, or RFP 
SIP establishes MVEBs for the attainment year, each required RFP year 
or last year of the maintenance plan, as appropriate. MVEBs are 
generally established for specific years and specific pollutants or 
precursors.
    Ozone attainment and RFP plans establish MVEBs for NOX 
and VOC. See 40 CFR 93.102(b)(2)(i).
    Before an MPO may use MVEBs in a submitted SIP, EPA must first 
either determine that the MVEBs are adequate or approve the MVEBs. In 
order for us to find the MVEBs adequate and approvable, the submittal 
must meet the conformity adequacy requirements of 40

[[Page 61817]]

CFR 93.118(e)(4) and (5) and be approvable under all pertinent SIP 
requirements. To meet these requirements, the MVEBs must be consistent 
with the approvable attainment and RFP demonstrations and reflect all 
of the motor vehicle control measures contained in the attainment and 
RFP demonstrations. See 40 CFR 93.118(e)(4)(iii), (iv) and (v). For 
more information on the transportation conformity requirements and 
applicable policies on MVEBs, please visit our transportation 
conformity Web site at: http://www.epa.gov/otaq/stateresources/transconf/index.htm.
    EPA's process for determining adequacy of a MVEB consists of three 
basic steps: (1) providing public notification of a SIP submission; (2) 
providing the public the opportunity to comment on the MVEB during a 
public comment period; and, (3) making a finding of adequacy or 
inadequacy. See 40 CFR 93.118.
2. Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets in the 2009 Plan
    On July 16, 2009, we found the budgets in the 2009 Plan to be 
adequate for the 2011, 2014, and 2017 milestone years and inadequate 
for the 2018 attainment year for transportation conformity 
purposes.\50\ We determined that the attainment year budgets were 
inadequate because they lacked specificity and were not fully 
enforceable and, therefore, did not meet the criteria for adequacy in 
40 CFR Sec.  93.118(e)(4).\51\ We published a notice of our findings at 
74 FR 37210 (July 28, 2009).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \50\ See letter from Deborah Jordan, Director, Air Division, EPA 
Region 9, to James N. Goldstene, Executive Officer, CARB, July 16, 
2009, with enclosure.
    \51\ See letter, Deborah Jordan, Air Division Director, EPA 
Region 9, to James M. Goldstene, Executive Officer, CARB, ``RE: 
Adequacy Status of Sacramento 8-Hour Reasonable Further Progress and 
Attainment Plan Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets,'' dated July 16, 
2009.
    \52\ Final 2013/16 MTIP, Amendment #1 to the Metropolitan 
Transportation Plan/Sustainable Communities Strategy 2035, and Air 
Quality Conformity Analysis, August 16, 2012. FHWA approval December 
14, 2012. http://www.sandag.org/uploads/2050RTP/F2050rtp_all.pdf.
    \53\ See July 25, 2014 letter from Deborah Jordan, Director, Air 
Division, USEPA Region 9, to Richard W. Corey, Executive Officer, 
CARB. On August 8, a notice of adequacy was published in the Federal 
Register notifying the public that the Agency had found that the 
MVEBs for ozone for the years 2014, 2017, and 2018 adequate for 
transportation conformity purposes. See 79 FR 46436.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

3. Revised Vehicle Emissions Budgets in 2013 Plan Update
    The 2013 Plan Update includes revised VOC and NOX MVEBs 
for 2014, 2017, and 2018. See table 11-1 in the 2013 Plan Update. The 
MVEBs in the 2013 Plan Update replaced the original MVEBs in the 2009 
Plan and account for changes in emission reductions associated with the 
revised 2007 State Strategy, an updated version of EMFAC (i.e., 
EMFAC2011), and the latest planning assumptions from the Sacramento 
Area Council of Governments (SACOG).
    The MVEBs contained in the 2013 Plan Update are shown in table 15. 
The MVEBs are the projected on-road mobile source VOC and 
NOX emissions for the SMA for 2014, 2017, and 2018. They 
include the projected on-road mobile source emissions and safety 
margins and are rounded up to the next whole number tpd. The conformity 
rule allows for a safety margin to be included in the budgets. The 
overall emissions in the SMA with the addition of a small safety margin 
added to the on-road emissions are consistent with RFP and attainment 
of the 1997 8-hour ozone standard. See 40 CFR 93.124(a). The derivation 
of the MVEBs is discussed in section 11 of the 2013 Plan Update. The 
MVEBs incorporate on-road motor vehicle emission inventory factors of 
EMFAC2011, updated vehicle activity data from SACOG, and recent 
amendments to the Metropolitan Transportation Improvement Plan (2013/16 
MTIP).\52\

                     Table 15--Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets in the Sacramento Ozone Plan
                                          [Tpd, average summer weekday]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                     NOX                                    VOC
                                   -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                        2014         2017         2018         2014         2017         2018
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
On-Road Inventory \a\.............           46           37           34           21           17           16
Safety Margin.....................            3            2            3            2            1            1
MVEBs \b\.........................           49           39           37           23           18           17
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\a\ Includes adjustments for measures not reflected in EMFAC2011.
\b\ Rounded up to nearest ton.
Source: Table 11-1 on page 11-4 of the 2013 Plan Update.

    The availability of the SIP submission with MVEBs was announced for 
public comment on EPA's Adequacy Web site on May 20, 2014, at: http://www.epa.gov/otaq/stateresources/transconf/currsips.htm, which provided 
a 30-day public comment period that ended on June 19, 2014. EPA 
received no comments from the public. On July 25, 2014, EPA determined 
the 2014, 2017, and 2018 MVEBs were adequate.\53\ On August 8, 2014, 
the notice of adequacy was published in the Federal Register. See 79 FR 
46436. The new MVEBs became effective on August 25, 2014. After the 
effective date of the adequacy finding, the new MVEBs must be used in 
future transportation conformity determinations in the SMA area. EPA is 
not required under its transportation conformity rule to find budgets 
adequate prior to proposing approval of them, but in this instance, we 
have completed the adequacy review of these budgets prior to our final 
action on the 2013 Plan Update.
    In today's notice, EPA is proposing to approve the 2017 and 2018 
MVEBs in the 2013 Plan Update for transportation conformity purposes. 
EPA has determined through its thorough review of the submitted 2013 
Plan Update that the 2017 and 2018 MVEBs are consistent with emission 
control measures in the SIP, RFP, and attainment in the SMA for the 
1997 8-hour ozone NAAQS. EPA previously found the 2017 and 2018 MVEBs 
adequate and is now proposing to approve those budgets. The 2017 and 
2018 MVEBs are used in SACOG's conformity determination for the 2015/
2018 Metropolitan Transportation Improvement Program \54\ and will be 
used in future conformity

[[Page 61818]]

determinations. The 2014 MVEBs are not used in SACOG's conformity 
determination and will not be used in future conformity determinations 
because SACOG is not required to address any year prior to 2017. 
Therefore, EPA has determined that not approving the 2014 MVEBs would 
have no practical impact on the transportation planning agencies in the 
SMA.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \54\ On September 18, 2014, the SACOG Board of Directors 
approved the 2015/18 Metropolitan Transportation Improvement 
Program, Amendment #4 to the Metropolitan Transportation Plan/
Sustainable Communities Strategy 2035, and Air Quality Conformity 
Analysis.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The details of EPA's evaluation of the MVEBs for compliance with 
the budget adequacy criteria of 40 CFR 93.118(e) were provided in a 
separate adequacy letter \55\ included in the docket of this 
rulemaking.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \55\ See footnote #53.
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4. Proposed Action on the Budgets
    As part of its review of the budgets' approvability, EPA has 
evaluated the revised budgets using our adequacy criteria in 40 CFR 
93.318(e)(4) and (5). We found that the 2017 and 2018 budgets meet each 
adequacy criterion. We have completed our detailed review of the 2013 
Plan Update, and are proposing to approve the SIP's attainment and RFP 
demonstrations. We have also reviewed the proposed budgets submitted 
with the 2013 Plan Update and have found that the 2017 and 2018 budgets 
are consistent with the attainment and RFP demonstrations, were based 
on control measures that have already been adopted and implemented, and 
meet all other applicable statutory and regulatory requirements 
including the adequacy criteria in 40 CFR 93.118(e)(4) and (5). 
Therefore, we are proposing to approve the 2017 and 2018 budgets as 
shown in table 15.
    As described above, the 2017 and 2018 budgets were determined to be 
adequate on July 25, 2014 and became effective on August 25, 2014. The 
new budgets replace the budgets previously found adequate in 2009, and 
SACOG and the U.S. Department of Transportation are required to use the 
new budgets in transportation conformity determinations as of August 
25, 2014. If EPA later finalizes the approval of the 2017 and 2018 
budgets, it will not affect SACOG and the U.S. Department of 
Transportation because they already are required to use the new budgets 
as of August 25, 2014. For conformity determinations, the plan 
emissions should be used at the same level of accuracy as in the 
revised updated budgets from the 2013 Plan Update.
    CARB requested that EPA limit the duration of its approval of the 
budgets submitted on December 31, 2013 as part of the 2013 Plan Update 
to last only until the effective date of EPA's adequacy finding for any 
subsequently submitted budgets. See letter, Richard W. Corey, Executive 
Officer, California Air Resources Board, December 31, 2013.
    The transportation conformity rule allows EPA to limit the approval 
of budgets. See 40 CFR 93.118(e)(1). However, we can only consider a 
state's request to limit an approval of its MVEB if the request 
includes the following elements:
     An acknowledgement and explanation as to why the budgets 
under consideration have become outdated or deficient;
     A commitment to update the budgets as part of a 
comprehensive SIP update; and
     A request that EPA limit the duration of its approval to 
the time when new budgets have been found to be adequate for 
transportation conformity purposes.
    See 67 FR 69141 (November 15, 2002) (limiting our prior approval of 
MVEB in certain California SIPs).
    Because CARB's request does not include all of these elements, we 
cannot address it at this time. Once CARB has adequately addressed 
them, we intend to propose to limit the duration of our approval of the 
MVEBs in the 2013 Plan Update and provide the public an opportunity to 
comment. The duration of the approval of the budgets, however, is not 
limited until we complete such a rulemaking.

H. Vehicle Miles Travelled Emissions Offset Demonstration

    CAA section 182(d)(1)(A) requires a state with areas classified as 
``Severe'' or ``Extreme'' to ``submit a revision that identifies and 
adopts specific enforceable transportation control strategies and 
transportation control measures to offset any growth in emissions from 
growth in vehicle miles traveled or numbers of vehicle trips in such 
area.'' Herein, we use ``VMT'' to refer to vehicle miles traveled and 
refer to the related SIP requirement as the ``VMT emissions offset 
requirement.'' In addition, we refer to the SIP revision intended to 
demonstrate compliance with the VMT emissions offset requirement as the 
``VMT emissions offset demonstration.'' Moreover, the SMA is subject to 
the VMT emissions offset requirement for the 1997 8-hour ozone standard 
by virtue of its classification as ``Severe'' for the 1997 ozone 
standard. See 75 FR 24409 (May 5, 2010); and 40 CFR 51.902(a).
    CAA section 182(d)(1)(A) also includes two additional elements 
requiring that the SIP include: (1) Transportation control strategies 
and transportation control measures as necessary to provide (along with 
other measures) the reductions needed to meet the applicable RFP 
requirement, and (2) include strategies and measures to the extent 
needed to demonstrate attainment.
1. Evaluation of Revised Sacramento VMT Emissions Offset Demonstrations
a. Section 182(d)(1)(A) and EPA's August 2012 VMT Emissions Offset 
Demonstration Guidance
    As noted previously, the first element of CAA section 182(d)(1)(A) 
requires that areas classified as ``Severe'' or ``Extreme'' submit a 
SIP revision that identifies and adopts transportation control 
strategies and transportation control measures sufficient to offset any 
growth in emissions from growth in VMT or the number of vehicle trips. 
In response to the Court's decision in Association of Irritated 
Residents v. EPA, EPA issued a memorandum titled Guidance on 
Implementing Clean Air Act Section 182(d)(1)(A): Transportation Control 
Measures and Transportation Control Strategies to Offset Growth in 
Emissions Due to Growth in Vehicle Miles Travelled (herein referred to 
as the ``August 2012 guidance'').\56\
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    \56\ Memorandum from Karl Simon, Director, Transportation and 
Climate Division, Office of Transportation and Air Quality, to Carl 
Edland, Director, Multimedia Planning and Permitting Division, EPA 
Region 6, and Deborah Jordan, Director, Air Division, EPA Region 9, 
August 30, 2012.
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    The August 2012 Guidance discusses the meaning of the terms, 
``transportation control strategies'' (TCSs) and ``transportation 
control measures'' (TCMs), and recommends that both TCSs and TCMs be 
included in the calculations made for the purpose of determining the 
degree to which any hypothetical growth in emissions due to growth in 
VMT should be offset. Generally, TCSs is a broad term that encompasses 
many types of controls including, for example, motor vehicle emission 
limitations, inspection and maintenance (I/M) programs, alternative 
fuel programs, other technology-based measures, and TCMs, that would 
fit within the regulatory definition of ``control strategy.'' See, 
e.g., 40 CFR 51.100(n). TCMs are defined at 40 CFR 51.100(r) as meaning 
``any measure that is directed toward reducing emissions of air 
pollutants from transportation sources. Such measures include, but are 
not limited to those listed in section 108(f) of the Clean Air Act[,]'' 
and generally refer to programs intended to reduce the VMT, the number 
of vehicle

[[Page 61819]]

trips, or traffic congestion, such as programs for improved public 
transit, designation of certain lanes for passenger buses and high-
occupancy vehicles (HOVs), trip reduction ordinances, and the like.
    The August 2012 guidance explains how states may demonstrate that 
the VMT emissions offset requirement is satisfied in conformance with 
the Court's ruling. States are recommended to estimate emissions for 
the nonattainment area's base year and the attainment year. One 
emission inventory is developed for the base year, and three different 
emissions inventory scenarios are developed for the attainment year. 
For the attainment year, the state would present three emissions 
estimates, two of which would represent hypothetical emissions 
scenarios that would provide the basis to identify the ``growth in 
emissions'' due solely to the growth in VMT, and one that would 
represent projected actual motor vehicle emissions after fully 
accounting for projected VMT growth and offsetting emissions reductions 
obtained by all creditable TCSs and TCMs. See the August 2012 guidance 
for specific details on how states might conduct the calculations.
    The base year on-road VOC emissions should be based on VMT in that 
year and it should reflect all enforceable TCSs and TCMs in place in 
the base year. This would include vehicle emissions standards, state 
and local control programs such as I/M programs or fuel rules, and any 
additional implemented TCSs and TCMs that were already required by or 
credited in the SIP as of that base year.
    The first of the emissions calculations for the attainment year 
would be based on the projected VMT and trips for that year, and assume 
that no new TCSs or TCMs beyond those already credited in the base year 
inventory have been put in place since the base year. This calculation 
demonstrates how emissions would hypothetically change if no new TCSs 
or TCMs were implemented, and VMT and trips were allowed to grow at the 
projected rate from the base year. This estimate would show the 
potential for an increase in emissions due solely to growth in VMT and 
trips. This represents a ``no action'' taken scenario. Emissions in the 
attainment year in this scenario may be lower than those in the base 
year due to the fleet that was on the road in the base year gradually 
being replaced through fleet turnover; however, provided VMT and/or 
numbers of vehicle trips will in fact increase by the attainment year, 
they would still likely be higher than they would have been assuming 
VMT had held constant.
    The second of the attainment year's emissions calculations would 
also assume that no new TCSs or TCMs beyond those already credited have 
been put in place since the base year, but would also assume that there 
was no growth in VMT and trips between the base year and attainment 
year. This estimate reflects the hypothetical emissions level that 
would have occurred if no further TCMs or TCSs had been put in place 
and if VMT and trip levels had held constant since the base year. Like 
the ``no action'' attainment year estimate described above, emissions 
in the attainment year may be lower than those in the base year due to 
the fleet that was on the road in the base year gradually being 
replaced by cleaner vehicles through fleet turnover, but in this case 
they would not be influenced by any growth in VMT or trips. This 
emissions estimate would reflect a ceiling on the attainment emissions 
that should be allowed to occur under the statute as interpreted by the 
Court because it shows what would happen under a scenario in which no 
offsetting TCSs or TCMs have yet been put in place and VMT and trips 
are held constant during the period from the area's base year to its 
attainment year. This represents a ``VMT offset ceiling'' scenario. 
These two hypothetical status quo estimates are necessary steps in 
identifying the target level of emissions from which states would 
determine whether further TCMs or TCSs, beyond those that have been 
adopted and implemented in reality, would need to be adopted and 
implemented in order to fully offset any increase in emissions due 
solely to VMT and trips identified in the ``no action'' scenario.
    Finally, the state would present the emissions that are actually 
expected to occur in the area's attainment year after taking into 
account reductions from all enforceable TCSs and TCMs that in reality 
were put in place after the baseline year. This estimate would be based 
on the VMT and trip levels expected to occur in the attainment year 
(i.e., the VMT and trip levels from the first estimate) and all of the 
TCSs and TCMs expected to be in place and for which the SIP will take 
credit in the area's attainment year, including any TCMs and TCSs put 
in place since the base year. This represents the ``projected actual'' 
attainment year scenario. If this emissions estimate is less than or 
equal to the emissions ceiling that was established in the second of 
the attainment year calculations, the TCSs or TCMs for the attainment 
year would be sufficient to fully offset the identified hypothetical 
growth in emissions.
    If, instead, the estimated projected actual attainment year 
emissions are still greater than the ceiling which was established in 
the second of the attainment year emissions calculations, even after 
accounting for post-baseline year TCSs and TCMs, the state would need 
to adopt and implement additional TCSs or TCMs to further offset the 
growth in emissions and bring the actual emissions down to at least the 
``had VMT and trips held constant'' ceiling estimated in the second of 
the attainment year calculations, in order to meet the VMT offset 
requirement of section 182(d)(1)(A) as interpreted by the Court.
b. Sacramento VMT Emissions Offset Demonstrations
    For the Sacramento VMT emissions offset demonstrations, the State 
used EMFAC2011, the latest EPA-approved motor vehicle emissions model 
for California. The EMFAC2011 model estimates the on-road emissions 
from two combustion processes (i.e., running exhaust and start exhaust) 
and four evaporative processes (i.e., hot soak, running losses, diurnal 
losses, and resting losses). The EMFAC2011 model combines trip-based 
VMT data from the regional transportation planning agencies (i.e., 
SACOG), starts data based on household travel surveys, and vehicle 
population data from the California Department of Motor Vehicles. These 
sets of data are combined with corresponding emission rates to 
calculate emissions.
    Emissions from running exhaust, start exhaust, hot soak, and 
running losses are a function of how much a vehicle is driven. As such, 
emissions from these processes are directly related to VMT and vehicle 
trips, and the State included emissions from them in the calculations 
that provide the basis for the revised Sacramento VMT emissions offset 
demonstration. The State did not include emissions from resting loss 
and diurnal loss processes in the analysis because such emissions are 
related to vehicle population, not to VMT or vehicle trips, and thus 
are not part of ``any growth in emissions from growth in vehicle miles 
traveled or numbers of vehicle trips in such area'' (emphasis added) 
under CAA section 182(d)(1)(A).
    The Sacramento VMT emissions offset demonstration addresses the 
1997 8-hour ozone standard and includes a 2002 ``base year'' scenario 
for the purpose of the VMT emissions offset demonstration for the 1997 
8-hour ozone standard. The ``base year'' for VMT emissions offset 
demonstration

[[Page 61820]]

purposes should generally be the same ``base year'' used for 
nonattainment planning purposes. In today's action, EPA is proposing to 
approve the 2002 base year inventory for the SMA for the purposes of 
the 1997 8-hour ozone standard, and thus, the State's selection of 2002 
as the base year for the revised Sacramento VMT emissions offset 
demonstration for the 1997 8-hour ozone standard is appropriate.
    The demonstration also includes the previously described three 
different attainment year scenarios (i.e., no action, VMT offset 
ceiling, and projected actual) for 2018. The State's selection of 2018 
is appropriate given that the Sacramento Ozone Plan demonstrates 
attainment by the applicable attainment date of June 15, 2019 based on 
the 2018 controlled emissions inventory.\57\ See 76 FR 57872, at 57885 
(September 16, 2011) and 77 FR 12674, at 12693 (March 1, 2012).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \57\ In this context, ``attainment year'' refers to the ozone 
season immediately preceding a nonattainment area's attainment date. 
In the case of the SMA, the applicable attainment date is June 15, 
2019, and the ozone season immediately preceding that date will 
occur in year 2018.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Table 16 summarizes the relevant distinguishing parameters for each 
of the emissions scenarios and show the State's corresponding VOC 
emissions estimates. Table 16 provides the parameters and emissions 
estimates for the revised VMT emissions offset demonstration for the 
1997 8-hour ozone standard.

          Table 16--VMT Emissions Offset Inventory Scenarios and Results for 1997 8-Hour Ozone Standard
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                               VMT                     Starts             Controls       VOC
                                   -----------------------------------------------------------------  Emissions
             Scenario                                                                               ------------
                                        Year       1000/day       Year       1000/day       Year         tpd
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Base Year.........................         2002       52,595         2002        7,935         2002           45
No Action.........................         2018       64,709         2018       10,640         2002           28
VMT Offset Ceiling................         2002       52,595         2002        7,935         2002           19
Projected Actual..................         2018       64,709         2018       10,640         2018           14
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: CARB's Technical Supplement, July 24, 2014.

    For the ``base year'' scenario, the State ran the EMFAC2011 model 
for the 2002 base year using VMT and starts data corresponding to those 
years. As shown in table 16, the State estimates SMA VOC emissions at 
45 tpd in 2002.
    For the ``no action'' scenario, the State first identified the on-
road motor vehicle control programs (i.e., TCSs or TCMs) put in place 
since the base year and incorporated into EMFAC2011 and then ran 
EMFAC2011 with the VMT and starts data corresponding to the applicable 
attainment year (i.e., 2018 for the 1997 8-hour ozone standard) without 
the emissions reductions from the on-road motor vehicle control 
programs put in place after the base year. Thus, the ``no action'' 
scenario reflects the hypothetical VOC emissions that would occur in 
the attainment year in the SMA if the State had not put in place any 
additional TCSs or TCMs after 2002. As shown in table 16, the State 
estimates ``no action'' SMA VOC emissions at 28 tpd in 2018.
    For the ``VMT offset ceiling'' scenario, the State ran the 
EMFAC2011 model for the attainment year but with VMT and starts data 
corresponding to base year values. Like the ``no action'' scenario, the 
EMFAC2011 model was adjusted to reflect the VOC emissions levels in the 
attainment year without the benefits of the post-base-year on-road 
motor vehicle control programs. Thus, the ``VMT offset ceiling'' 
scenario reflect hypothetical VOC emissions in the SMA if the State had 
not put in place any TCSs or TCMs after the base year and if there had 
been no growth in VMT or vehicle trips between the base year and the 
attainment year.
    The hypothetical growth in emissions due to growth in VMT and trips 
can be determined from the difference between the VOC emissions 
estimates under the ``no action'' scenario and the corresponding 
estimate under the ``VMT offset ceiling'' scenario. Based on the values 
in table 16, the hypothetical growth in emissions due to growth in VMT 
and trips in the SMA would have been 9 tpd (i.e., 28 tpd minus 19 tpd) 
for the purposes of the revised VMT emissions offset demonstration for 
the 8-hour ozone standard. This hypothetical difference establishes the 
level of VMT growth-caused emissions that need to be offset by the 
combination of post-baseline year TCMs and TCSs and any necessary 
additional TCMs and TCSs.
    For the ``projected actual'' scenario calculation, the State ran 
the EMFAC2011 model for the attainment year with VMT and starts data at 
attainment year value and with the full benefits of the relevant post-
baseline year motor vehicle control programs. For this scenario, the 
State included the emissions benefits from TCSs and TCMs put in place 
since the base year.
    The most significant State on-road and fuels measures providing 
reductions during the 2002 to 2018 time frame and relied upon for the 
VMT emissions offset demonstration include Low Emission Vehicles II and 
Zero Emissions Vehicle standards, California Reformulated Gasoline 
Phase 3, and Cleaner In-Use Heavy-Duty Trucks. Some of these measures 
were adopted prior to 2002, but all or part of their implementation 
occurred after 2002. The TSD for today's action includes a list of TCSs 
and TCMs adopted by the State since 2002.\58\ State measures adopted 
since 2007, as part of the revised 2007 State Strategy, and their 
reductions are also described in the IV.C and IV.D of this notice. 
Additional information regarding implementation and expected reductions 
from CARB's adopted measures is also available on CARB's rulemaking 
activity Web site.\59\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \58\ The docket for today's action includes a list of the post-
1990 transportation control strategies. Per section 209 of the CAA, 
the EPA has previously waived (for control of emissions from new 
motor vehicles of new motor vehicle engines prior to March 30, 1966) 
or authorized (for control emissions of nonroad engines or vehicles) 
all such TCSs and TCMs relied upon for the VMT emissions offset 
demonstration.
    \59\ See http://www.arb.ca.gov/regact/regact.htm.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    As shown in table 16, the results from these calculations establish 
projected actual attainment-year VOC emissions of 14 tpd for the 1997 
8-hour standard demonstration. The State then compared these values 
against the corresponding VMT offset ceiling value to determine whether 
additional TCMs or TCSs would need to be adopted and implemented in 
order to offset any increase in emissions due solely to VMT and trips. 
Because the ``projected actual'' emissions are less than the 
corresponding ``VMT Offset Ceiling'' emissions, the State concluded 
that the demonstration shows compliance with

[[Page 61821]]

the VMT emissions offset requirement and that there are sufficient 
adopted TCSs and TCMs to offset the growth in emissions from the growth 
in VMT and vehicle trips in the SMA for 1997 8-hour standard. In fact, 
taking into account of the creditable post-baseline year TCMs and TCSs, 
the State showed that they offset the hypothetical differences by 14 
tpd for the 1997 8-hour standard, rather than merely the required 9 
tpd.\60\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \60\ The offsetting VOC emissions reductions from the TCSs and 
TCMs put in place after the respective base year can be determined 
by subtracting the ``projected actual'' emissions estimates from the 
``no action'' emissions estimates in table 16. For the purposes of 
the 8-hour ozone demonstration, the offsetting emissions reductions, 
14 tpd (28 tpd minus 14 tpd), exceed the growth in emissions from 
growth in VMT and vehicle trips (9 tpd).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Based on our review of the State's submittal, including the 
technical supplement, we find the State's analysis to be acceptable and 
agree that the State has adopted sufficient TCSs and TCMs to offset the 
growth in emissions from growth in VMT and vehicle trips in the SMA for 
the purposes of the 1997 8-hour ozone standard. As such, we find that 
the revised SMA VMT emissions offset demonstration, complies with the 
VMT emissions offset requirement in CAA section 182(d)(1)(A), and 
therefore, we propose approval of the revised SMA VMT emissions offset 
demonstration for the 1997 8-hour ozone standards as a revision to the 
California SIP.
    Regarding the two additional elements in 182(d)(1)(A), as discussed 
above in section IV.D, we are proposing to find that the Sacramento 
Ozone Plan provides for RFP consistent with all applicable CAA and EPA 
regulatory requirements. Therefore, we also propose to find that the 
SIP meets requirement in CAA section 182(d)(1)(A) to include TCSs and 
TCMs as necessary to provide (along with other measures) the reductions 
needed to meet the applicable RFP requirement.
    Finally, based on the discussion in sections IV.B and IV.C above, 
we are proposing to find that the Sacramento Ozone Plan provides for 
expeditious attainment of the 1997 8-hour ozone standard. Therefore, we 
propose to find that the SIP meets the requirement in CAA section 
182(d)(1)(A) to include strategies and measures to the extent needed to 
demonstrate attainment.
    Under CAA section 110(k)(3), and for the reasons set forth above, 
EPA is proposing to approve CARB's 2013 Plan Update submittal, dated 
December 31, 2013, of the Sacramento VMT emissions offset demonstration 
for the 1997 8-hour ozone standards, as supplemented by CARB on June 
19, 2014, as a revision to the California SIP. We are proposing to 
approve this SIP revision because we believe that it demonstrates that 
California has put in place specific enforceable transportation control 
strategies and transportation control measures to offset the growth in 
emissions from the growth in VMT and vehicle trips in the SMA for the 
1997 8-hour ozone standard, and thereby meets the applicable 
requirements in section 182(d)(1)(A) of the Clean Air Act.

V. EPA's Proposed Actions

A. EPA's Proposed Approvals

    For the reasons discussed above, EPA is proposing to approve 
California's attainment SIP for the Sacramento Metro Area for the 1997 
8-hour Ozone NAAQS. This SIP is comprised of the Sacramento Regional 
Nonattainment Area 8-Hour Ozone Reasonable Further Progress Plan 2002-
2008 (February 2006), Sacramento Regional 8-Hour Ozone Attainment Plan 
and Reasonable Further Progress Plan (March 26, 2009), CARB's 2007 
State Strategy and Revised 2007 State Strategy (specifically the 
portions applicable to the SMA), and the Sacramento Regional 8-Hour 
Ozone Attainment Plan and Reasonable Further Progress Plan (September 
26, 2013).
    EPA is proposing to approve under CAA section 110(k)(3) the 
following elements of the Sacramento Ozone Plan:
    1. The revised 2002 base year emissions inventory as meeting the 
requirements of CAA section 182(a)(1) and 40 CFR 51.915;
    2. The reasonably available control measure demonstration as 
meeting the requirements of CAA section 172(c)(1) and 40 CFR 51.912(d);
    3. The rate of progress and reasonable further progress 
demonstrations as meeting the requirements of CAA sections 172(c)(2) 
and 182(c)(2)(B) and 40 CFR 51.910 and 51.905;
    4. The attainment demonstration as meeting the requirements of CAA 
section 182(c)(2)(A) and 40 CFR 51.908;
    5. The contingency measure provisions for failure to make RFP and 
to attain as meeting the requirements of CAA sections 172(c)(9) and 
182(c)(9);
    6. The demonstration that the SIP provides for transportation 
control strategies and measures sufficient to offset any growth in 
emissions from growth in VMT or the number of vehicle trips, and to 
provide for RFP and attainment, as meeting the requirements of CAA 
section 182(d)(1)(A);
    7. The revised motor vehicle emissions budgets for 2017 and for the 
attainment year of 2018, because they are derived from approvable RFP 
and attainment demonstrations and meet the requirements of CAA sections 
176(c) and 40 CFR part 93, subpart A; and
    8. The Districts' commitments to adopt and implement certain 
defined measures, as listed in table 7-2 on pages 7-5 and 7-6 of the 
2013 Plan Update.

B. Request for Public Comments

    EPA is soliciting public comments on the issues discussed in this 
document or on other relevant matters. We will accept comments from the 
public on this proposal for the next 30 days. We will consider these 
comments before taking final action.

VI. Statutory and Executive Order Reviews

    The Administrator is required to approve a SIP submission that 
complies with the provisions of the Act and applicable federal 
regulations. 42 U.S.C. 7410(k); 40 CFR 52.02(a). Thus, in reviewing SIP 
submissions, EPA's role is to approve state choices, provided that they 
meet the criteria of the Clean Air Act. Accordingly, this action merely 
proposes to approve a state plan revision as meeting federal 
requirements and does not impose additional requirements beyond those 
imposed by state law. For these reasons, this proposed action:
     Is not a ``significant regulatory action'' subject to 
review by the Office of Management and Budget under Executive Order 
12866 (58 FR 51735, October 4, 1993);
     Does not impose an information collection burden under the 
provisions of the Paperwork Reduction Act (44 U.S.C. 3501 et seq.);
     Is certified as not having a significant economic impact 
on a substantial number of small entities under the Regulatory 
Flexibility Act (5 U.S.C. 601 et seq.);
     Does not contain any unfunded mandate or significantly or 
uniquely affect small governments, as described in the Unfunded 
Mandates Reform Act of 1995 (Pub. L. 104-4);
     Does not have federalism implications as specified in 
Executive Order 13132 (64 FR 43255, August 10, 1999);
     Is not an economically significant regulatory action based 
on health or safety risks subject to Executive Order 13045 (62 FR 
19885, April 23, 1997);
     Is not a significant regulatory action subject to 
Executive Order 13211 (66 FR 28355, May 22, 2001);
     Is not subject to requirements of Section 12(d) of the 
National Technology Transfer and Advancement Act of 1995 (15 U.S.C. 272 
note) because

[[Page 61822]]

application of those requirements would be inconsistent with the CAA; 
and
     Does not provide EPA with the discretionary authority to 
address disproportionate human health or environmental effects with 
practical, appropriate, and legally permissible methods under Executive 
Order 12898 (59 FR 7629, February 16, 1994).
    In addition, this proposed rule does not have tribal implications 
as specified by Executive Order 13175 (65 FR 67249, November 9, 2000), 
because the SIP is not approved to apply in Indian country located in 
the State, and EPA notes that it will not impose substantial direct 
costs on tribal governments or preempt tribal law.

List of Subjects in 40 CFR Part 52

    Environmental protection, Air pollution control, Incorporation by 
reference, Intergovernmental regulations, Nitrogen dioxide, Ozone, 
Reporting and recordkeeping requirements, Volatile organic compounds.

    Authority:  42 U.S.C. 7401 et seq.

    Dated: September 24, 2014.
Jared Blumenfeld,
Regional Administrator, EPA Region IX.
[FR Doc. 2014-24487 Filed 10-14-14; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 6560-50-P