Document ID: EPA-HQ-OAR-2009-0234-19907
Agency: epa
Document Type: Supporting & Related Material
Title: 
Posted Date: 2011-12-21T05:00Z

Emissions Modeling for the Final Mercury and Air Toxics Standards 
Technical Support Document
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       

                                       

                                                               EPA-454/R-11-011
                                                                  December 2011

                                       
                                       
                                       

Emissions Modeling for the Final Mercury and Air Toxics Standards 
Technical Support Document
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                      By:
                                  Alison Eyth
                                  Rich Mason
                                 Alexis Zubrow
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
                     U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
                          Office of Air and Radiation
                 Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
                        Air Quality Assessment Division
                                       
                                       

                                       
                               TABLE OF CONTENTS

LIST OF TABLES	v
LIST OF APPENDICES	vi
ACRONYMS	vii
1	Introduction to the Modeling Platform	1
2	2005 Emission Inventories and Their Preparation	2
2.1	Custom configuration for emissions modeling for MATS	4
2.2	Onroad mobile sources (onroad)	6
2.2.1	MOVES	6
2.2.2	Representing counties	7
2.2.3	SMOKE-MOVES inputs	11
2.2.4	Generating emission factors for SMOKE	12
2.2.5	Running SMOKE for onroad mobile	13
2.3	Nonroad mobile sources (nonroad, alm_no_c3, seca_c3)	14
2.3.1	Emissions generated with the NONROAD model (nonroad)	14
2.3.2	Locomotives and commercial marine vessels (alm_no_c3, seca_c3)	18
2.4	2005 point sources (ptipm and ptnonipm sectors)	18
2.4.1	Ethanol plants (ptnonipm)	19
2.5	2005 nonpoint sources (afdust, ag, avefire, nonpt)	20
2.5.1	Portable fuel containers	20
2.5.2	Onroad refueling	20
2.6	Other sources (biogenics, othpt, othar, and othon)	21
2.7	Emissions summaries for 2005 base case	21
3	VOC Speciation Changes that Represent Fuel Changes	23
4	2017 Reference Case	27
4.1	Stationary source projections:  EGU sector (ptipm)	33
4.2	Stationary source projections:  non-EGU sectors (ptnonipm, nonpt, ag, afdust)	34
4.2.1	Ethanol plants (ptnonipm)	35
4.2.2	Biodiesel plants (ptnonipm)	35
4.2.3	Portable fuel containers (nonpt)	37
4.2.4	Cellulosic fuel production (nonpt)	37
4.2.5	Ethanol transport and distribution (nonpt)	38
4.2.6	Onroad refueling (nonpt)	38
4.2.7	Refinery adjustments (ptnonipm)	39
4.2.8	Ethanol transport gasoline and blends (ptnonipm, nonpt)	39
4.2.9	Upstream agricultural adjustments (afdust, ag, nonpt, ptnonipm)	39
4.2.10	Livestock emissions growth (ag, afdust)	40
4.2.11	Residential wood combustion growth (nonpt)	40
4.2.12	Aircraft growth (ptnonipm)	41
4.2.13	Stationary source control programs, consent decrees & settlements, and plant closures (ptnonipm, nonpt)	42
4.2.14	Oil and gas projections in TX, OK, and non-California WRAP states (nonpt)	47
4.3	Onroad mobile source projections (onroad)	47
4.3.1	California LEV	48
4.4	Nonroad mobile source projections (nonroad, alm_no_c3, seca_c3)	48
4.4.1	Emissions generated with the NONROAD model (nonroad)	48
4.4.2	Locomotives and Class 1 & 2 commercial marine vessels (alm_no_c3)	49
4.4.3	Class 3 commercial marine vessels (seca_c3)	51
4.5	Canada, Mexico, and offshore sources (othar, othon, and othpt)	52
4.6	Reference case emission summaries	52
5	MATS Control Case	58
6	References	62

                                 LIST OF TABLES
	
Table 1-1.  List of cases run in support of the MATS air quality modeling for the RIA	2
Table 2-1.  Sectors used in emissions modeling for the final MATS 2005v4.3 platform	3
Table 2-2.  Model species produced by SMOKE for CB05 with SOA for the MATS platform	5
Table 2-3.  Description of differences in ancillary data (unrelated to SMOKE to MOVES) between the MATS 2005 case and the 2005v4.2 platform	6
Table 2-4.  Allocation of states to the Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts	8
Table 2-5.  Gasoline parameter categories	9
Table 2-6.  States adopting California emission standards	10
Table 2-7.  Summary of county grouping characteristics for representative counties	11
Table 2-8.  Updated 1,3-butadiene to VOC ratio for 2-stroke snowmobiles for NMIM's gasoline categories	15
Table 2-9.  Criteria for grouping representative counties for nonroad mobile analysis	16
Table 2-10.  NONROAD model temperature (F) categories	17
Table 2-11.  NONROAD NMIM runs	17
Table 2-12.  Summary of NONROAD modeling components	18
Table 2-13.  2005 ethanol plant emissions	19
Table 2-14.  2005 U.S. emissions (tons/year) by sector	21
Table 2-15.  2005 base year SO2  emissions (tons/year) for states by sector	21
Table 2-16.  2005 base year PM2.5 emissions (tons/year) for states by sector	22
Table 3-1.  Summary of VOC speciation profile approaches by sector across cases	25
Table 4-1.  Control strategies and growth assumptions for creating the 2017 reference case emissions inventories from the 2005 base case	30
Table 4-2.  MATS reference case mobile source-related projection methods	34
Table 4-3.  2017 reference case corn ethanol plant emissions	35
Table 4-4.  2017 biodiesel plant emissions	37
Table 4-5.  PFC emissions for 2017	37
Table 4-6.  2017 cellulosic plant emissions	38
Table 4-7.  VOC losses (Emissions) due to ethanol transport and distribution	38
Table 4-8.  Onroad gasoline and diesel refueling emissions	39
Table 4-9.  Impact of refinery adjustments on 2017 emissions	39
Table 4-10.  Upstream agricultural emission increases due to RFS2 fuels in 2017	39
Table 4-11.  Growth factors from year 2005 to 2017 for animal operations	40
Table 4-12.  Projection factors for growing year 2005 residential wood combustion sources	41
Table 4-13.  Impact of year 2017 projection factor error on residential wood combustion estimates	41
Table 4-14.  Factors used to project 2005 base-case aircraft emissions to 2017	42
Table 4-15.  Summary of non-EGU emission reductions applied to the 2005 inventory due to unit and plant closures	43
Table 4-16.  Future-year ISIS-based cement industry annual reductions (tons/yr)  for the non-EGU (ptnonipm) sector	45
Table 4-17.  State-level non-MACT boiler reductions from ICR data gathering	45
Table 4-18.  National impact of RICE controls on non-EGU projections	46
Table 4-19.  Impact of fuel sulfur (SO2) controls on 2017 non-EGU projections	46
Table 4-20.  Oil and gas NOX and SO2 emissions for 2005 and 2017 including additional reductions due to the RICE NESHAP	47
Table 4-21.  Factors applied to year 2005 emissions to project locomotives and class 1 and class 2 commercial marine vessel emissions to 2017	50
Table 4-22.  Additional class 1 railroad and C1/C2 CMV emissions from RFS2 fuel volume changes	51
Table 4-23.  NOX, SO2, and PM2.5 factors to project class 3 CMV emissions for 2017	52
Table 4-24.  Summary of modeled base case SO2 and PM2.5 annual emissions (tons/year) for 48 states by sector	53
Table 4-25.  Reference case SO2 emissions (tons/year) for states by sector	54
Table 4-26.  Reference case PM2.5 emissions (tons/year) for states by sector	55
Table 4-27.  Future year baseline EGU CAP emissions (tons/year) by state	56
Table 5-1.  Summary of emissions changes for the MATS AQ modeling in the lower 48 states	58
Table 5-2.  EGU emissions totals for the Mmdeled MATS control case in the lower 48 states	58
Table 5-3.  State-specific changes in annual EGU SO2 for the lower 48 states	59
Table 5-4.  State-specific changes in annual EGU PM2.5 for the lower 48 states	61

                               LIST OF APPENDICES
APPENDIX A: Ancillary Datasets and Parameters Used for Each MATS Modeling Case
APPENDIX B: Inventory Data Files Used for Each MATS Modeling Case  -  SMOKE Input Inventory Datasets
APPENDIX C: Summary of MATS Rule 2017 Base Case Non-EGU Control Programs, Closures and Projections

                                    ACRONYMS
AEO	Annual Energy Outlook
BEIS	Biogenic Emission Inventory System
bps	Buly plant storage
btp	Bulk plant terminal-to-pump
C3	Category 3 (commercial marine vessels)
CAP	Criteria Air Pollutant
CMAQ	Community Multiscale Air Quality
CSAPR	Cross-State Air Pollution (formerly Transport) Rule
E0	0% Ethanol gasoline (by volume)
E10	10% Ethanol gasoline
E15	15% Ethanol gasoline
EGU	Electric Generating Utility
EISA	Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007
EPAct	Energy Policy Act of 2005
FAA	Federal Aviation Administration
FIPS	Federal Information Processing Standard
HAP	Hazardous Air Pollutant
HDGHG	Heavy Duty Greenhouse Gas
HONO	HNO2, nitrous acid
IPM	Integrated Planning Model
LDGHG	Light Duty Greenhouse Gas
MOBILE6	Mobile Source Emission Factor Model, version 6
MOVES	Motor Vehicle Emissions Simulator
MY	Model Year
NEEDS	National Electric Energy Database System
NEI	National Emission Inventory
NMIM	National Mobile Inventory Model
OAQPS	EPA's Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
ORL	One Record per Line (a SMOKE input format)
MP	Multipollutant
NO	Nitric oxide
NO2	Nitrogen dioxide
NOX	Nitrogen oxides
PFC 	Portable Fuel Container
PEC	Elemental carbon component of PM2.5
PMFINE	Leftover "Other", or "crustal" component of PM2.5
PNO3	Particulate nitrate component of PM2.5
PSO4	Particulate sulfate component of PM2.5
POC	Organic carbon component of PM2.5
rbt	Refinery-to-bulk terminal
RFS2	Revised annual renewable fuel standard (mandate)
SMOKE	Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions
SCC	Source Category Code
TAF	Terminal Area Forecast
TSD	Technical Support Document
VOC	Volatile Organic Compound
WRAP	Western Regional Air Partnership

    Introduction to the Modeling Platform
This Technical Support Document (TSD) describes the development of the emissions inventories used as inputs to the air quality modeling that the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) performed to assess the impact of the Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS).  This document provides the details of emissions modeling done to support the development of the Regulatory Impact Assessment (RIA) for the MATS.  The emissions processing described herein and the corresponding air quality modeling were used to develop benefit-per-ton scaling factors for the benefits calculation as described in the RIA.  More information on this approach can be found in Appendix 5C of the RIA and in the Air Quality Modeling Technical Support Document (TSD).  The emissions inventories were using the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE) modeling system (http://www.smoke-model.org/index.cfm) version 2.7 processed into the form required by the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model.  CMAQ simulates the numerous physical and chemical processes involved in the formation, transport, and destruction of ozone, particulate matter and air toxics.  

As part of the analysis for this rulemaking, the modeling system was used to calculate daily and annual PM2.5 concentrations, 8-hr maximum ozone and visibility impairment. Model predictions of PM2.5 and ozone are used in a relative sense to estimate scenario-specific, future-year design values of PM2.5 and ozone. These are combined with monitoring data to estimate population-level exposures to changes in ambient concentrations for use in estimating health and welfare effects.  In this document, we provide an overview of (1) the emissions components of the modeling platform, (2) the development of the 2005 base year emissions, (3) the development of the future year baseline emissions, and (4) the development of the future year control case emissions.

A modeling platform is the collection of the inputs to an air quality model, including the settings and data used for the model, including emissions data, meteorology, initial conditions, and boundary conditions.  The 2005-based air quality modeling platform used for the proposed utility NESHAP RIA includes 2005 base year emissions and 2005 meteorology for modeling ozone and PM2.5 with CMAQ.  In support of this rule, EPA modeled the air quality in the Eastern and the Western United States using two separate model runs, each with a horizontal grid resolution of 12 km x 12 km.  These 12 km modeling domains were "nested" within a modeling domain covering the remainder of the lower 48 states and surrounding areas using a grid resolution of 36 x 36 km.  The results from the 36-km modeling were used to provide incoming "boundary" for the 12km grids.  Additional details on the non-emissions portion of the 2005v4.3 modeling platform used for the RIA are described in the air quality modeling TSD. 

The 2005-based air quality modeling platform used in support of the RIA is version 4.3 and is referred to as the 2005v4.3 platform.  It is an update to the 2005-based platform, version 4.1 (i.e., 2005v4.1) used for the proposal modeling and for the appropriate and necessary finding. The Technical Support Document "Preparation of Emissions Inventories for the Version 4.1, 2005-based Platform" (see http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/emch/index.html#toxics) provides information on the platform used for the proposed version of this rule and for the appropriate and necessary finding.  The 2005v4.3 platform builds upon the 2005-based platform, version 4.2, which was the version of the platform used for the final Cross-State Air Pollution Rule and incorporated changes made in response to public comments on the proposed version of that rule.

Table 1-1 provides a high-level summary of the three emissions cases that were modeled in support of the final rule RIA.  The form of the fuel used for mobile sources is a key discriminator between the cases.  Therefore, the mobile source emissions are described with respect to the impacts of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA) and the Energy Policy Act of 2005 (EPAct) on mobile source fuels. 

Table 1-1.  List of cases run in support of the MATS air quality modeling for the RIA
Case Name
Internal EPA Abbreviation
Description
2005 base case
2005ct
2005 calendar year case / scenarios that uses an average year temporal allocation approach for Electrical Generating Units (EGUs), a pre-EISA/EPAct fuel supply for mobile sources, and average year fires data. Air quality outputs from this case are used to compute relative response factors with the 2017 future year reference case scenarios.
2017 reference case
2017ct_ref
2017 future year baseline scenario with EGU emissions that represent the implementation of the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR) and mobile sources representing the implementation of the EISA/EPAct fuel supply (RFS2 Rule) along with average year fire data. 
2017 control case
2017ct_ref_mats
2017 "control" or remedy case scenario with EGU emissions that represent the implementation of both CSAPR and MATS, and mobile sources representing implementation of the EISA/EPAct fuel supply (RFS2), along with average year fire data.
In the remainder of this document, we provide a description of the approaches taken for the emissions in support of air quality modeling for the MATS.  In Section 2, we describe the 2005v4.3 platform custom configurations, ancillary data and 2005 inventory differences from the v4.2 platform.  In Section 3, we describe the speciation differences among each of the cases run.  In Section 4, we describe the 2017 Reference (i.e., future year baseline) case as compared to the 2005 base case. Appendix A provides a comparison of the ancillary datasets and parameters used for the various MATS emissions cases, and Appendix B compares the emissions inventory and other input data files used for each of the MATS cases.
    2005 Emission Inventories and Their Preparation
As mentioned previously, the 2005 emissions modeling approach for MATS used much of the same data and approaches as the 2005v4.2 platform.  In this section, we identify the differences between the data used for the MATS 2005v4.3 platform and that used for the 2005v4.2 platform.  Section 2.1 provides ancillary data differences that impact multiple sectors.  Section 2.2 discusses the new approach used for emissions preprocessing and processing for all onroad mobile sources.  Section 2.3 discusses the updated nonroad mobile components.  Sections 2.2 and 2.65 provide differences for the nonpoint and nonpoint (area) inventories, respectively.  

The data used in the 2005 emissions case is often the same as those described in the Final Cross-State Air Pollution Rule TSD (http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/emch/index.html#2005), also known as the CAP-BAFM 2005-based Version 4.2 Platform (i.e., 2005v4.2). However, some different emissions data are used for this rulemaking.  All of the documentation provided here describes what was done differently and specifically for the MATS in contrast to what was done for the 2005v4.2 platform.  

In MATS, we used a 2005 base case approach for the year 2005 emissions scenario.  This approach is very similar to that CSAPR Final Rule (formerly known as the "Transport Rule").  A base case approach uses average year fires and EGU temporal profiles from three years of EGU data.  We use a base case approach because we want to reduce year-specific variability in some components of the inventory.  For example, large fires vary in location and day of the year each year, and EGU shutdowns and high use on high energy demand days also vary by year.  By using a base case approach, these two aspects of the inventory are maintained into the future year modeling and therefore do not introduce potentially spurious year-specific artifacts into the air quality modeling estimates.  For MATS, the same biogenic emissions data as the 2005v4.2 platform was used for the 2005 case, and also for both future-year cases.  The only significant data changes between the 2005 and the 2017 future-year MATS case are the emission inventories and speciation approaches.

Table 2-1 below lists the platform sectors used for the MATS modeling platform.  It also indicates which platform sectors include HAP emissions and the associated sectors from the National Emission Inventory (NEI).  Subsequent subsections refer to these platform sectors to identify the emissions differences between the 2005v4.2 platform and the MATS 2005v4.3-based platform.
Table 2-1.  Sectors used in emissions modeling for the final MATS 2005v4.3 platform
Platform Sector
2005 NEI Sector
Description
Contains HAP emissions?
IPM sector: ptipm 
Point
NEI EGU units at facilities mapped to the IPM model using the National Electric Energy Database System (NEEDS) database.
Yes
Non-IPM sector: ptnonipm
Point[+]
All NEI point source units not matched to the ptipm sector, including airports.
Yes
Average-fire sector:   avefire 
N/A
Average-year wildfire and prescribed fire emissions, county and annual resolution. 
Yes
Agricultural sector: ag
Nonpoint
Ammonia (NH3) emissions from NEI nonpoint livestock and fertilizer application.
No
Area fugitive dust sector: afdust
Nonpoint
PM10 and PM2.5 emissions from fugitive dust sources in the NEI nonpoint inventory.
No
Remaining nonpoint sector: nonpt
Nonpoint[+]
All U.S. nonpoint (i.e. inventoried at the county-level) sources not otherwise included in other emissions modeling sectors.
Yes
Nonroad sector:  nonroad
Mobile: Nonroad
Monthly nonroad emissions from the NONROAD model version NR08b and National Mobile Inventory Model (NMIM) software version NMIM20090504b and NMIM and Meteorology database version NCD20101201Tier3.  Nonroad version is equivalent to NONROAD2008a used in 2005v4.2 for future year 2017. 
Yes
C1 & C2 CMV and locomotives: alm_no_c3
Mobile: Nonroad
Primarily 2002 NEI non-rail maintenance locomotives, and category 1 and category 2 commercial marine vessel (CMV) emissions sources, county and annual resolution.  Aircraft emissions are no longer in this sector and are now included in the Non-EGU sector (as point sources); also, category 3 CMV emissions are no longer in this sector and are now contained in the seca_c3 sector.
Yes
C3 commercial marine: seca_c3
Mobile: nonroad
Annual point source-formatted, year 2005 category 3 (C3) CMV emissions, developed for the rule called "Control of Emissions from New Marine Compression-Ignition Engines at or Above 30 Liters per Cylinder", usually described as the Emissions Control Area (ECA) study (http://www.epa.gov/otaq/oceanvessels.htm).  Utilized final projections from 2002, developed for the C3 ECA Proposal to the International Maritime Organization (EPA-420-F-10-041, August 2010).
Yes
Onroad Mobile:  onroad
Mobile: onroad[+]
Motor Vehicle Emissions Simulator (MOVES) emission factors created to account for hourly-based meteorology dependencies at a select number of representative counties.  Includes local input information such as fuels, temperatures, vehicle fleet, speed distributions and controls.  Emission factors are combined with activity data and gridded temperature via SMOKE to produce gridded emissions. These emissions are discussed extensively in Section 2.2. 
Yes
Biogenic:  biog
N/A
Hour-specific, grid cell-specific emissions generated from the BEIS3.14 model, including emissions in Canada and Mexico.  Unchanged from the 2005v4 platform, and the same data are used for all future year scenarios.
No
Other point sources not from the NEI:   othpt
N/A
Point sources from Canada's 2006 inventory and Mexico's Phase III 1999 inventory, annual resolution.  Also includes annual U.S. offshore oil 2005v2 NEI point source emissions.  Unchanged from the 2005v4 platform, and the same data are used for all future year scenarios.
No
Other nonpoint and nonroad not from the NEI: othar
N/A
Annual year 2006 Canada (province resolution) and year 1999 Mexico Phase III (municipio resolution) nonpoint and nonroad mobile inventories.  Unchanged from the 2005v4 platform, and the same data is used for all future year scenarios.
No
Other onroad sources not from the NEI:  othon 
N/A
Year 2006 Canada (province resolution) and year 1999 Mexico Phase III (municipio resolution) onroad mobile inventories, annual resolution.  Unchanged from the 2005v4 platform, and the same data is used for all future year scenarios.
No
  + Some data included in modeling sector has been revised beyond what is included in the 2005 NEI v1 or v2.  
Custom configuration for emissions modeling for MATS
Unlike the 2005v4.2 platform, the configuration for MATS modeling included additional hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) and used slightly revised ancillary speciation data.  Both of these differences are described in this section.

Table 2-2 lists the additional HAP pollutants processed for the MATS 2005v4.3 platform, which were not included in the 2005v4.2 platform.  A "lite" version of the multi-pollutant CMAQ (Version 4.7) was used that required emissions only for the species listed in the footnote of Table 2-2. In addition to the model species differences, the MATS platform had a few additional custom aspects in the 2005 cases.  Table 2-3 lists the datasets used by the 2005v4.3 platform that are different from the 2005v4.2 platform.  

Another consideration is the speciation across the MATS future-year cases as compared to 2005.  Section 3 provides a detailed account of these differences.  The future-year ancillary data were largely the same as those in 2005, with no substantial differences for most modeling sectors.  The exception to this is onroad mobile, which in MATS processing, required several new ancillary input files to support the SMOKE to MOVES modules; these are discussed in detail in Section 2.4.  All other ancillary data files not required for SMOKE to MOVES processing can otherwise be found at the 2005-based platform website (http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/emch/index.html#2005).

Table 2-2.  Model species produced by SMOKE for CB05 with SOA for the MATS platform
Inventory Pollutant
Model Species
Model species description
CL2
CL2
Atomic gas-phase chlorine
HCl
HCL
Hydrogen Chloride (hydrochloric acid) gas
CO
CO
Carbon monoxide
NOX
NO
Nitrogen oxide

NO2
Nitrogen dioxide

HONO
Nitrous acid
SO2
SO2
Sulfur dioxide

SULF
Sulfuric acid vapor
NH3
NH3
Ammonia
VOC
ACROLEIN[*]
Acrolein from the HAP inventory

ALD2
Acetaldehyde from VOC speciation

ALD_PRIMARY[*]
Acetaldehyde from the HAP inventory

ALDX
Propionaldehyde and higher aldehydes

BENZENE
Benzene (not part of CB05)

BUTADIENE13[*]
1,3-butadiene from the HAP inventory

ETH
Ethene

ETHA
Ethane

ETOH
Ethanol, from select inventories provided by OTAQ

FORM
Formaldehyde

FORM_PRIMARY[*]
Formaldehyde from the HAP inventory

IOLE
Internal olefin carbon bond (R-C=C-R)

ISOP
Isoprene

MEOH
Methanol

OLE
Terminal olefin carbon bond (R-C=C)

PAR
Paraffin carbon bond

TOL
Toluene and other monoalkyl aromatics

XYL
Xylene and other polyalkyl aromatics
Various additional VOC species from the biogenics model which do not map to the above model species
SESQ
Sesquiterpenes

TERP
Terpenes
PM10
PMC
Coarse PM > 2.5 microns and  10 microns
PM2.5
PEC
Particulate elemental carbon  2.5 microns

PNO3
Particulate nitrate  2.5 microns

POC
Particulate organic carbon (carbon only)  2.5 microns

PSO4
Particulate Sulfate  2.5 microns

PMFINE
Other particulate matter   2.5 microns
Sea-salt species (non  - anthropogenic emissions)
PCL
Particulate chloride

PNA
Particulate sodium
   * - ACROLEIN, ALD2_PRIMARY, BUTADIENE13, ETHANOL and FORM_PRIMARY are the extra "CMAQ-lite" HAPs that are not in the v4.2 platform.

Table 2-3.  Description of differences in ancillary data (unrelated to SMOKE to MOVES) between the MATS 2005 case and the 2005v4.2 platform
Ancillary Data Type
Difference between 2005v4.2 platform and MATS platform
Speciation cross-references and Speciation profiles
The MATS 2005v4.3 data files are configured to support the multi-pollutant (MP) version of CMAQ, whereas the 2005v4.2 platform data file is configured to support only the non-MP version.  Therefore, the MATS data files include profiles for additional VOC HAP species.
Speciation VOC to TOG conversion profiles
Added MATS-specific VOC to TOG and nonHAP VOC to nonHAP TOG assignments
SCC Descriptions
Added onroad diesel SCCs representing start and idle modes (223007X000)
Inventory tables
The MATS data file was updated to support SMOKE to MOVES pollutants and modes, the MP "lite" version of CMAQ, and, to accept inventory Ethanol (ETOH).  The 2005v4.2 platform data file is configured to support only the non-MP version.
Onroad mobile sources (onroad)
For each scenario, emissions from cars, trucks and motorcycles were estimated by using the EPA's Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator (MOVES) to create emission factors that were then input to the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions system (SMOKE). The SMOKE-MOVES Integration Tools combined the county and temperature-specific emission factors with the activity data to compute the actual emissions.  In brief, our approach was to use the met4moves program to identify a set of temperatures that needed emission rates.  For each scenario, we then ran MOVES repeatedly to produce emission rates by temperature, Source Classification Code (SCC), speed bin, and representing county.  The moves2smk tool then reformatted the MOVES rates and selected the appropriate rates for each county and month.  Movesmrg then multiplies the emission rates by county VMT or vehicle population, applies speciation profiles to develop inventories for pollutants not included in MOVES and temporally and spatially allocates emissions to individual grid cells for CMAQ input.
MOVES
For MATS, EPA used a version of the MOVES 2010a model that was enhanced for the proposed Tier 3 rule.  This model included updated information on how fuel parameters impact vehicle emissions and updates on our understanding of evaporative emissions.  It also included some minor updates to emission rates and some changes designed to make the model run more efficiently.  All updates are described in detail in a memorandum to the docket (U.S. EPA 2012, Memorandum to Docket:  Updates to MOVES for the Tier 3 NPRM).  The following sections describe inputs to the MOVES model that were specific to this analysis.

The gridded meteorological input data for the entire year of 2005 were derived from simulations of the Pennsylvania State University / National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5), a limited-area, nonhydrostatic, terrain-following system that solves for the full set of physical and thermodynamic equations which govern atmospheric motions.  The Meteorology-Chemistry Interface Processor (MCIP) version 3.4 was used as the software for maintaining dynamic consistency between the meteorological model and chemistry mechanisms.  The hourly gridded meteorological data was post-processed by met4moves to create maximum temperature ranges, average relative humidity, and a series of diurnal temperature profiles.  MOVES was run for each temperature bin and diurnal profile. See Sections 2.2.4.1 and 2.2.4.3 for details.

Vehicle population data is a required input for MOVES when modeling on a county basis.  Using the technical guidance provided to states by EPA, the contractor generated appropriate estimates for vehicle populations for use in the MOVES databases using the county specific VMT and national average ratios of vehicle populations versus vehicle VMT from the MOVES application.  This method is described in Section 3.3 of the document, "Technical Guidance on the Use of MOVES2010 for Emission Inventory Preparation in State Implementation Plans and Transportation Conformity" (EPA-420-B-10-023, April 2010), which is available on the EPA web site at: http://www.epa.gov/otaq/models/moves/index.htm

The county inputs used for the rule were derived from the inputs used for the 2005 National Emissions Inventory (NEI).  This inventory covers the 50 United States (U.S.), Washington DC, Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands.  The NEI was created by the EPA's Emission Inventory and Analysis Group (EIAG) in Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, in cooperation with the Office of Transportation and Air Quality (OTAQ) in Ann Arbor, Michigan.

OTAQ has developed a consolidated modeling system known as the National Mobile Inventory Model (NMIM) for calculation of emissions from onroad highway mobile source and nonroad mobile sources.  NMIM documentation is available at http://www.epa.gov/otaq/models/nmim/420r05024.pdf.  NMIM includes a county-level database with the important input parameters specific to each county.  The data in the NMIM county database (NCD) are used to develop MOBILE6.2 and NONROAD model input files within NMIM.  The basis for the 2005 default vehicle miles traveled (VMT) is data supplied by the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), as well as publicly available data from FHWA's Highway Statistics series.  Details of how the NCD was developed are documented for the NEI "Documentation for the 2005 Mobile National Emissions Inventory, Version 2 (December 2008)", which can be obtained on EPA web site: http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/net/2005inventory.html

For the onroad portion of the inventory estimates for the rule, including all base and control scenarios, the current EPA highway mobile source emission model (MOVES) was used.  This required conversion of the NCD database parameters to a format consistent with MOVES.  A contractor was given the assignment (TranSystems, Contract No. EP-D-06-001, WA 4-65) to convert the NCD database to MOVES formatted input databases.  This was accomplished with the assistance of converters designed for this purpose.  These converters are available on the EPA web site at: http://www.epa.gov/otaq/models/moves/tools.htm

All of the county specific onroad data available in the NCD was converted to MOVES format for use at the county scale consistent with the databases created using the MOVES County Data Manager (CDM), except for the information regarding fuel properties.  The fuel properties were updated using more recent information and methods specifically for this rule and described elsewhere in this document.  Any table entries in the NCD that contained national average default information from the MOBILE6 model were replaced with the more recent national average default information used by MOVES.
Representing counties
Although EPA compiles county specific databases for all counties in the nation, many of the states can provide little or no county specific information for most counties.  Rather than explicitly model every county in the nation (there are over 3,000 counties), we have performed detailed modeling for some counties and less detailed estimates for the other counties.  This has been accomplished in this rule using a concept called "representing counties".

In this approach, we group counties that have similar properties and therefore would have similar emission rates.  Then, we explicitly model only one county in the group (the "representing" county) to determine the rates.  These representative rates are then used, in combination with county specific activity and meteorology data to generate emissions estimates for all of the counties in the group.  This approach dramatically reduces the number of modeling runs required to generate inventories and still takes into account differences between counties.

As described in Section 2.2.4, in order to generate onroad mobile emissions, MOVES was run in conjunction with the EPA SMOKE model to generate "grid" level inventories for use in air quality modeling.  SMOKE uses emission rates (not inventories) to generate inventory estimates within each grid.  Since SMOKE handles the differences in the fleet mix, temperatures, speeds and VMT versus location and time, MOVES can be run in the "emission rate" mode.  As a result, when counties are grouped, they can be grouped independently of fleet mix, speeds and temperature.  This greatly increases the number of counties that can be in each grouping, since temperature is a factor that varies among the counties.  For this analysis, we grouped counties with similar fuel, emission standards, altitude, and inspection and maintenance (I/M) programs.

The information used to group the counties was derived from the NMIM inputs used for the 2005 NEI onroad and nonroad mobile sectors.  For the onroad portion of the inventory estimates for the rule, including all base and control scenarios, the current EPA highway mobile source emission model (MOVES) was used.  This required conversion of the NCD database parameters to a format consistent with MOVES.

The NCD also does not contain county specific information regarding vehicle populations and there are no default values.  Vehicle population data is a required input for MOVES when modeling on a county basis.  Using the technical guidance provided to states by EPA, the contractor generated appropriate estimates for vehicle populations for use in the MOVES databases using the county specific VMT and national average ratios of vehicle populations versus vehicle VMT from the MOVES application.  This method is described in Section 3.3 of the document, "Technical Guidance on the Use of MOVES2010 for Emission Inventory Preparation in State Implementation Plans and Transportation Conformity" (EPA-420-B-10-023, April 2010), which is available on the EPA web site at: http://www.epa.gov/otaq/models/moves/index.htm

The grouping of counties uses a tree algorithm, which is conceptually simple.  In the tree algorithm, all counties are assigned to various categories.  Then by grouping counties within the same categories, you get groups of counties that have the similar parameters.  Counties were sorted into their Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADDs).  PADD 1 is divided into three sub-PADD groupings and each sub-group is treated as a separate PADD (1a, 1b and 1c).  Each state belongs to a PADD and all counties in any state are within the same PADD.  Table 2-4 below shows the PADDs and the states within each PADD.
Table 2-4.  Allocation of states to the Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts
PADD
State FIPS
State Name
Abbreviation
1a
09
CONNECTICUT
CT
1a
23
MAINE
ME
1a
25
MASSACHUSETTS
MA
1a
33
NEW HAMPSHIRE
NH
1a
44
RHODE ISLAND
RI
1a
50
VERMONT
VT
1b
10
DELAWARE
DE
1b
11
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
DC
1b
24
MARYLAND
MD
1b
34
NEW JERSEY
NJ
1b
36
NEW YORK
NY
1b
42
PENNSYLVANIA
PA
1c
12
FLORIDA
FL
1c
13
GEORGIA
GA
1c
37
NORTH CAROLINA
NC
1c
45
SOUTH CAROLINA
SC
1c
51
VIRGINIA
VA
1c
54
WEST VIRGINIA
WV
1c
72
PUERTO RICO
PR
1c
78
VIRGIN ISLANDS
VI
2
17
ILLINOIS
IL
2
18
INDIANA
IN
2
19
IOWA
IA
2
20
KANSAS
KS
2
21
KENTUCKY
KY
2
26
MICHIGAN
MI
2
27
MINNESOTA
MN
2
29
MISSOURI
MO
2
31
NEBRASKA
NE
2
38
NORTH DAKOTA
ND
2
39
OHIO
OH
2
40
OKLAHOMA
OK
2
46
SOUTH DAKOTA
SD
2
47
TENNESSEE
TN
2
55
WISCONSIN
WI
3
01
ALABAMA
AL
3
05
ARKANSAS
AR
3
22
LOUISIANA
LA
3
28
MISSISSIPPI
MS
3
35
NEW MEXICO
NM
3
48
TEXAS
TX
4
08
COLORADO
CO
4
16
IDAHO
ID
4
30
MONTANA
MT
4
49
UTAH
UT
4
56
WYOMING
WY
5
02
ALASKA
AK
5
04
ARIZONA
AZ
5
06
CALIFORNIA
CA
5
15
HAWAII
HI
5
32
NEVADA
NV
5
41
OREGON
OR
5
53
WASHINGTON
WA
The counties in each PADD were sorted into fuel groups using the January fuel properties and the July fuel properties.  The fuel supply and fuel formulation data were taken from the 2005 fuels developed for the rule.  The fuel parameters used for grouping and the ranges of values used for the bins are described in Table 2-5.
                   Table 2-5.  Gasoline parameter categories
Gasoline Parameter
Category ID
Minimum Value (>=)
Maximum Value (<)
Reid Vapor Pressure (psi)
1
0
7.3

2
7.3
8.2

3
8.2
9.2

4
9.2
100
Sulfur (ppm)
1
0
50

2
50
100

3
100
110

4
110
1000
Ethanol (volume percent)
1
0
3

2
3
8

3
8
100
Benzene (volume percent)
1
0
1

2
1
1.5

3
1.5
2

4
2
10
Some states have adopted California highway vehicle emission standards or plan to adopt them.  Since the emission rates in these states will be different than in neighboring states, they must be modeled separately.  Also, because the implementation of California standards varies between these states, each state with California standards must be modeled independently from the other states with California standards as well.  Each state with California standards will be treated separately when choosing representing counties.  Table 2-6 shows the states with California emission standards.
           Table 2-6.  States adopting California emission standards
State ID
State Name
Abbreviation
CA Program Begins
06
California
CA
1994
25
Massachusetts
MA
1995
36
New York
NY
1996
50
Vermont
VT
2000
23
Maine
ME
2001
09
Connecticut
CT
2008
42
Pennsylvania
PA
2008
44
Rhode Island
RI
2008
41
Oregon
OR
2009
53
Washington
WA
2009
34
New Jersey
NJ
2009
24
Maryland
MD
2011
10
Delaware
DE
2014
35
New Mexico
NM
2016
The counties in each PADD-fuel group were sorted into groups with and without I/M vehicle inspection programs.  I/M programs were determined using the 2005 calendar year entries in the IMCoverage table of the MOVES database.  The I/M category is the state in which the county resides.  All I/M programs within a state were considered as a single program, even though each county may be administered separately and have a different program design.

Altitude was also added as its own category.  Altitude is a field in the County table of the MOVESDB20101006 database.  Counties are either high (H) or low (L) altitude based on the criteria set forth by EPA certification procedures (4,000 feet above sea level).  The result is a set of county groups with similar fuel, emission standards, altitude and I/M program.  Then the county in with the highest VMT in each group is chosen as the representing county.  The categories are summarized below in Table 2-7.
Table 2-7.  Summary of county grouping characteristics for representative counties
County Grouping Characteristic
Description
PADD
Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADDs).  PADD 1 is divided into three sub-PADD groupings and each sub-group is treated as a separate PADD (1a, 1b and 1c).  Each state belongs to a PADD and all counties in any state are within the same PADD.
Fuel Parameters
Average gasoline fuel properties for January and July 2005, including RVP, sulfur level, ethanol fraction and percent benzene.
Emission Standards.
Some states have adopted California highway vehicle emission standards or plan to adopt them. Since implementation of the standards varies, each state with California standards is treated separately.
Inspection/Maintenance Programs
Counties were grouped within a state according to whether or not they had an I/M program.  All I/M programs within a state were considered as a single program, even though each county may be administered separately and have a different program design.
Altitude
Counties are either high or low altitude based on the criteria set forth by EPA certification procedures (4,000 feet above sea level).
Using these criteria, a set of 106 counties were selected to represent the nation.  Of these, only 103 were needed to model the 48 states included in the air quality analysis inventory.  If MOVES runs were performed for all U.S. counties and months, there would be 3141 counties (excluding AK and HI) times 12 months = 37,692 county-months.  The MOVES runs for each representative county and fuel month were performed independently of one another on different computer processors each accessing a MySQL database specific to that run.
SMOKE-MOVES inputs
Both MOVES and SMOKE require meteorological data.  The program met4moves takes gridded hourly meteorological data, the representative counties, and the representative fuel months and produces separate meteorological products for MOVES and SMOKE.  Met4moves uses the representative counties and fuel months to determine the full range of meteorology in that county group.  For each representative county and fuel month, it determines all the grid cells that fall within the corresponding counties in that county group for the number of months that correspond to the fuel month.  The temperature range is then determined by looking at the minimum and maximum temperature across all these grid cells for all hours in that time period.  Relative humidity is calculated by taking an average over these same grid cells.

For rate-per-profile (RPP), SMOKE-MOVES uses the change in temperature over the day, the diurnal profile, instead of the temperature at the hour of processing.  Met4moves create a series of diurnal profiles based on the extent of the temperature range and the size of the temperature bins.  For MOVES, these diurnal profiles will span the full range of temperatures for that representative county and fuel month.  For SMOKE processing of RPP, met4moves creates a minimum and maximum temperature range for each county in the domain.  Note that these temperature ranges are county specific, not based on the representative county or county group.  Met4moves can be run in daily or monthly mode for producing SMOKE input.  In monthly mode, the temperature range is determined by looking at the range of temperatures over the whole month for that specific county.  Therefore, there is one temperature range per county per month.  While in daily mode, the temperature range is determined by evaluating the range of temperatures in that county for that day.  The output for the daily mode is one temperature range per county per day.  Typically, the SMOKE input produced in monthly mode will have larger temperature ranges for each county than when it is run in daily mode. For the MATS runs, met4moves was run in daily mode.

In addition to the lookup tables of emission rates produced by MOVES, SMOKE requires county VMT, population, and average speed by road type to calculate the necessary emissions for air quality modeling.  
VMT by county and Source Classification Code (SCC) was developed using MOVES2010a and the National County Database.  The National County Database (NCD20101201) has our most recent estimates of 2005 VMT and our best estimates of allocation of VMT from national to the county level.  Accordingly, for the 2005 base year, our estimates of VMT by county and SCC were taken directly from the NCD.  

The average speeds provided to SMOKE for each county were derived from the default national average speed distributions found in the default MOVES2010a database AvgSpeedDistribution table.  These average speeds are the average speeds developed for the previous EPA highway vehicle emission factor model, MOBILE6.  The same speed data was used for the base and future year cases.

In MOVES, there is a distribution of average speeds for each hour of the day for each road type.  The average speeds in these distributions were used to calculate an overall average speed for each hour of the day.  These hourly average speeds were weighted together using the default national average hourly vehicle miles traveled (VMT) distribution found in the MOVES default database HourlyVMTFraction table, to calculate an average speed for each road type.  This average speed by road type was provided to SMOKE for each county.
Generating emission factors for SMOKE
After representative counties and fuel months were chosen, the met4moves script was executed to produce the set of MOVES RunSpecs and meteorology tables that would ultimately generate a set of SMOKE lookup tables encompassing the full range of temperatures for all the counties and months in each group.  OTAQ also provided VMT, population, and average speed tables for every county.  

The onroad model-ready emissions were produced by running SMOKE-MOVES using 103 representative counties and two fuel months.  SMOKE-MOVES is a series of scripts and programs that 1) produce meteorological data for MOVES (Met4Moves), 2) construct a set of MOVES RunSpecs that produce lookup tables by temperature and average speed (runspec_generator), 3) process the MOVES lookup tables into a SMOKE-ready format (moves2smkEF), and 4) runs SMOKE.  The way that OTAQ used SMOKE-MOVES differs somewhat from the way that SMOKE-MOVES was initially designed to be run.  The full sequence of events was the following:

   1) OAQPS ran met4moves for a nation-wide 12 km grid. This generated the temperatures needed for the emission factor lookup tables and an average humidity for each county and month.  The inputs to met4moves are the hourly gridded temperature and humidity generated by the meteorological model used for CMAQ along with the list of representative counties and fuel months.  For each representative county and fuel-month, met4moves queries all the grid cells in all the represented county-months to find the full range of temperatures and profiles needed and averages the relative humidity.  

   2) OTAQ ran the runSpec_generator Perl script, (runspec_generator_v0.3_04Nov2010.plx).  The inputs to this process include the representative county list, fuel month list, temperature bin size (=10 degrees here), and the outputs from met4moves. The runspec_generator script produced MOVES run-specifications that control how the MOVES run is configured, along zonemonthhour tables in CSV format.  Specifications were generated for the three types of MOVES processes: rate-per-distance (RPD), rate-per-profile (RPP), and rate-per-vehicle (RPV). Run specifications were generated as needed to simulate the range of conditions reflected in the meteorological inputs.  For RPD and RPV, a series of run specifications were created for each representative county, one for each temperature bin covering the temperature ranges provided by the met4moves output.  For RPP, a second series of run specifications were created for each representative county, one for each diurnal profile provided by the met4moves output.  The input data specific to each county were loaded into databases called "scaleinputdatabases", and the zonemonthhour tables were also loaded into databases.

   3) OTAQ ran a tool to read the county databases, the zonemonthhour databases, other user-supplied databases, and the run specifications.  The tool implemented LEV programs into the specifications as appropriate and also modified the pollutant-process associations in the run specifications to meet the needs of MATS. The tool then packaged the information into a form that could be used by the compute server.

   4) OTAQ issued the command to kick off the required MOVES runs for each county and fuel month on the compute server.

   5) Once the MOVES runs were complete, OTAQ ran the moves2smkEF postprocessor to reformat the MySQL tables into the emission factor tables in CSV format that is readable by the SMOKE movesmrg program. The postprocessor also performed additional calculations to support SMOKE processing of CMAQ ready model emissions:  speciating HONO from NO and NO2, speciating the AE5 PM species (PEC, POC, PNO3, PSO4, PMFINE, and PMC for break and tire wear), and aggregating the detailed MOVES modes into 5 broader modes (exhaust, evaporative, permeation, break wear, and tire wear)

   6) OAQPS downloaded the emission factors from the server and executed SMOKE programs to produce gridded, hourly, speciated emissions for CMAQ.  See the next section for details.
Running SMOKE for onroad mobile
Running SMOKE using emission factors (EF) from MOVES required the development of a new set of functionality.  The central SMOKE program that performs this new analysis is movesmrg which takes activity data, meteorological data, and the EF to produce gridded emissions.  SMOKE is run independently for each of the three processes: rate-per-distance (RPD), rate-per-vehicle (RPV) and rate-per-profile (RPP).

The emissions process RPD is for modeling the on-network emissions.  This includes the following modes: vehicle exhaust, evaporation, permeation, break wear, and tire wear.  For RPD, the activity data is monthly VMT, monthly speed (SPEED), and hourly speed profiles for weekday versus weekend (SPDPRO).  The SMOKE program temporal takes vehicle and roadtype specific temporal profiles and distributes the monthly VMT to day of the week and hour.  Movesmrg reads the speed data for that county and SCC and the temperature from the gridded hourly data and uses these values to look-up the appropriate EF from the representative county's EF table.  It then multiplies this EF by temporalized VMT to calculate the emissions for that grid cell and hour.  This is repeated for each pollutant and SCC in that grid cell.

The emission process RPV is for modeling the off-network emissions.   This includes the following modes: vehicle exhaust, evaporative, and permeation (????).  For RPV, the activity data is vehicle population (VPOP).  Movesmrg reads the temperature from the gridded hourly data and uses the temperature plus SCC and the hour of the day to look up the appropriate EF from the representative county's EF table.  It then multiplies this EF by the VPOP for that SCC and FIPS to calculate the emissions for that grid cell and hour.  This repeats for each pollutant and SCC in that grid cell.

The emission process RPP is for modeling the off-network emissions for parked vehicles.  This includes the mode vehicle evaporative (fuel vapor venting).  For RPP, the activity data is VPOP.  Movesmrg reads the county based diurnal temperature range from met4moves output for SMOKE.  It uses this temperature range to determine the most similar idealized diurnal profile from the EF table using the temperature min and max, SCC, and hour of the day.  It then multiplies this EF by the VPOP for that SCC and FIPS to calculate the emissions for that grid cell and hour.  This repeats for each pollutant and SCC within the county.  For more details on processing RPD, RPV, and RPP in SMOKE, see:
http://www.smoke-model.org/version3.0/html/ch02s08s04.html.

MOVES was run for a series of representative counties and fuel months.  For each representative county and fuel month, three EF tables were created: RPD, RPV, and RPP.  SMOKE was run so that for each model day it would read in a single EF table (based on the appropriate fuel month), process all the counties that are part of the county group (i.e. are represented by that representative county), then read the next representative county EF table, etc.  After all days in the model year were looped over, SMOKE has generated a separate set of daily intermediate files for each of the emissions processes (RPD, RPV, and RPP).  Post-processing scripts were developed to integrate the process specific intermediate files into model-ready intermediate files for the onroad sector.  These files were on national 12km domain, to support the CMAQ runs they were further processed to create an aggregated 36km sector specific model-ready file and 2 12km domains (12EUS1 and 12WUS1). 
Nonroad mobile sources (nonroad, alm_no_c3, seca_c3)
The nonroad sectors include a wide-range of mobile emission sources ranging from locomotives, marine vessels, construction and farming equipment to hand-held lawn tools.  As discussed in Section 5, nonroad upstream impacts also impact the post-EPAct/EISA/RFS2/reference case (anti-backsliding) reflecting increased ethanol production resulting in fuel volume increases for locomotives and C1/C2 CMV emissions.
Emissions generated with the NONROAD model (nonroad)
Most nonroad emissions are were estimated using the EPA's NONROAD model, as run by the EPA's NMIM.  NONROAD is EPA's model for calculating emissions from nonroad equipment, except for aircraft, locomotives, and commercial marine vessels.  The NONROAD Model and extensive documentation can be found at http://www.epa.gov/otaq/nonrdmdl.htm.  NMIM is a program that references a national database of county-month data, writes county-month input files for NONROAD based on that data, runs NONROAD once for every county and month requested by the user, and collects the results in an output database.  Information and downloads for NMIM can be found at http://www.epa.gov/otaq/nmim.htm.  Rather than running every county, NMIM is designed to run NONROAD for "representative counties" and to use individual county activity to develop national inventories.  Inputs for NMIM runs were stored in the NMIM County Database (NCD).  The NCD version is NCD20101201Tier3.  This NCD is based on NCD20101201, which is the version of the NCD that includes all updates from the 2008 National Emission Inventory process: http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/net/2008inventory.html.

In particular, for this analysis, we made updates to the underlying fuel supply for the post EISA/EPAct reference case.  The NCD20101201Tier3 contained special versions of countyyearmonth, gasoline, and diesel, which were copied into the standard versions of these tables in order to run the model.  The fuels in NCD2010201Tier3 were developed from the fuels used for onroad vehicles, as described in Section 2.2.1.

Similarly, a special countymonthhour table that contained 2005 meteorology was copied into the standard countymonthhour table. The use of the countymonthhour table for meteorology was selected by the RunSpec setting useYearlyWeatherDataSelected="false."  We also made a minor change for snowmobiles:  the SCC toxics table in the NMIM County Database (NCD) was updated to correct 1,3-butadiene exhaust emissions for 2-stroke snowmobiles (SCC 2260001020), as shown in Table 2-8 below.  This correction addressed an issue identified in air quality modeling for the RFS2 rule, where unexpected increases in ambient concentrations were observed in rural areas during winter due to snowmobile emissions, available at: http://www.epa.gov/otaq/renewablefuels/420r10006.pdf.   The increases were based on data from only three engines, which showed unusually high1,3-butadiene emissions with 10% ethanol (Eth oxygenate).  Other data suggests that this increase is highly unlikely to be representative of the in-use fleet as a whole; thus results were corrected to those in the "NCD20101201Tier3" column.  In Table 2-but, Base Gasoline represents cases where the fuel type is not Eth, MTBE or RFG.  Eth gas is used where the fuel contains ethanol which is greater than or equal to 5% by volume or Ethyl Tertiary Butyl Ether (ETBE) is greater than or equal to 5% by volume.  MTBE gas is used where the fuel contains MTBE which is greater than or equal to 12% by volume or Tertiary Amine Methyl Ether (TAME) is greater than or equal to 13% by volume.  Finally, RFG gas is used where the fuel is RFG and where the fuel contains oxygenate greater than 5% by volume and where the fuel contains MTBE which is less than 12% by volume or TAME is less than 13% by volume.
Table 2-8.  Updated 1,3-butadiene to VOC ratio for 2-stroke snowmobiles for NMIM's gasoline categories
Fuel Type
NCD20101201
NCD20101201Tier3
Base Gasoline
0.0012
0.0012
Ethyl Tertiary Butyl Ether (Eth) Gas
0.00732
0.0012
Methyl ertiary Butyl Ether (MTBE) Gas
0.0012
0.0012
Reformulated Gasoline (RFG) Gas
0.0012
0.0012
In addition, a special countymap table was developed to use representing counties in the NMIM runs.  The algorithm for producing representing counties for NMIM was identical to that used for MOVES except that ten degree temperature bins were added to the criteria.  The result was 293 representing counties.  Finally, NMIM does not estimate ethanol emissions, so the inventory for this pollutant was from the chemical speciation that is obtained by post-processing using SMOKE
Representing counties for NONROAD
"Representing counties" is a way of saving NMIM run time by grouping together similar counties and generating emission factors by running the NONROAD Model for only one of those counties and then using those emission factors for all the counties in the group.  For this analysis, 293 county groups were developed.  The counties in each group were in the same state, had similar fuels in both summer and winter, and had similar I/M programs.  Since there are winter fuels and summer fuels, January was chosen as the fuel-month to represent the seven months October through April, and July was chosen to represent the five months May-September.  The total number of county-months for which NMIM runs needed to be performed was thus 293 times 12 months = 3,516 county-months for each scenario-year.  If NMIM runs were performed for all U.S. counties and months, there would be 3141 counties (excluding AK and HI) times 12 months = 37,692 county-months.  Representing counties were chosen for NONROAD-Model NMIM runs by grouping counties based on the characteristics listed in Table 2-9.
Table 2-9.  Criteria for grouping representative counties for nonroad mobile analysis
Characteristic
Grouping Criteria
Petroleum Administration for Defense District (PADD)
All counties in a group must be in the same PADD.
Gasoline parameters
Fuel bins were created for RVP, sulfur, benzene, and ethanol.  All counties in each group had all of these fuel properties in the same bins for all twelve months.
Inspection/Maintenance Programs
Counties with I/M programs were grouped with other counties with I/M programs in the same state.
Altitude
All counties in the group must be in the same altitude category (high or low).
Temperatures
All counties in the group must have similar temperatures, as detailed below.
Nonroad inventories are not calculated on a grid basis, as the highway mobile sources were, so when running NMIM for nonroad emissions, the representing counties must also account for temperatures.  The temperatures are taken from the 2005 calendar year values in the CountyYearMonthHour table of the NCD20100602 NMIM database.  As shown in Table 2-10, ten degree Fahrenheit (F) bins were created for min and max temperatures for each month.  All counties in each group had all min and max temperatures for all twelve months in the same bins.  The lowest interval includes all temperatures below -10 degrees F.  The highest interval includes all temperatures above 100 degrees F.

             Table 2-10.  NONROAD model temperature (F) categories
Temperature Bin
Minimum Temperature (>=)
Maximum Temperature (<)
1
-20
-10
2
-10
0
3
0
10
4
10
20
5
20
30
6
30
40
7
40
50
8
50
60
9
60
70
10
70
80
11
80
90
12
90
100
13
100
200
Once counties were grouped, the representing county was chosen as the one with the highest VMT.  The same set of 293 county groups and representing counties was used for all years and scenarios.  
Fuel inputs for NONROAD runs
For the nonroad mobile portion of the inventory estimate for the rule, the NMIM county database (NCD) developed for the 2005 NEI, with one exception of the county-specific fuel properties, was used to calculate nonroad emissions.  Fuels were developed for MOVES (onroad mobile) for the MATS Rule (see Section 2.2) and were converted to NMIM fuels.  Practically, this means converting the fuelsupply and fuelformulation tables from MOVES into the countyyearmonth, gasoline, and diesel tables in the NCD.
In 2005, onroad and nonroad gasoline formulations are assumed to be identical.  

While MOVES allows for multiple gasoline fuels, each with a market share, for a single county-month.  The market shares always sum to one.  The NCD allows only one fuel per county month, but, for each of the four oxygenates (ETOH, MTBE, TAME, and ETBE), the NCD has columns for both volume percent and market share.  The sum of these market shares is less than or equal to one.  If less than one, the remainder of the market is non-oxygenated (conventional) gasoline.  When there are multiple MOVES gasoline fuels for a single county-month, non-oxygenate MOVES fuel properties are multiplied by market share and summed to produce the fuel property in the gasoline table.  Individual non-ethanol oxygenates and California ethanol occur in only one fuel per county-month in MOVES, so the volume and market share are transferred to the appropriate columns for that oxygenate in NMIM.  In states other than California, for multiple ethanol volumes with volume percents less than 10, the product of market share and volume percent is averaged and then divided by 10, resulting in a market share of E10.
NMIM runs
Table 2-11 shows the NMIM runs that were performed to generate the NONROAD Model county-month results for both national inventories and air quality modeling inventories.
                        Table 2-11.  NONROAD NMIM runs
Case
Year
Run Name
Base
2005
Tier3Base2005Nr
Reference
2017
Tier3Ref2017e10Nr
MOVES fuels were used for future year cases and converted to NMIM format.  However, for 2017, EPA assumed that nonroad equipment would use only E10.  The details of the fuels conversion from MOVES to NMIM was discussed above.  Table 2-12 describes the components in the NONROAD/NMIM system common to all MATS modeling scenarios.
              Table 2-12.  Summary of NONROAD modeling components
Model
Version
Description
NONROAD
NR08b
This is identical to the official NONROAD2008, (available at http://www.epa.gov/otaq/nonrdmdl.htm#model) except it was modified to allow modeling of emissions on E15 fuels.  The existing fuel effects algorithm was retained.  
NMIM Code
NMIM20090504b
This is the same as the official NMIM2008a software, (available at http://www.epa.gov/otaq/nmim.htm) except the NONROAD model was updated to NRO8b.
NMIM Database
NCD20101201Tier3
This is based on NCD20101201, which was developed for the 2008 NEI.  It was adapted to model the desired scenarios.
Meteorology
NCD20101201Tier3
Historical data for calendar year 2005 from the National Climatic Data Center.  County temperatures were determined by weighting nearby temperature stations by their distance from the population-based centroid of each county.
Locomotives and commercial marine vessels (alm_no_c3, seca_c3)
The year 2005 emissions from these sources used for this rule are the same as they were for the Final Rulemaking: Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards and Fuel Efficiency Standards for Medium- and Heavy-Duty Engines and Vehicles signed on August 9, 2011 and available at http://www.epa.gov/oms/climate/regulations.htm#1-2, and the Final Cross-State Air Pollution (CSAPR) Rule:  ftp://ftp.epa.gov/EmisInventory/2005v4_2/transportrulefinal_eitsd_28jun2011.pdf.  The procedures for calculating emissions from locomotives and C1/C2 commercial marine were developed for the Locomotive Marine Rule (2008) and are detailed in the RIA "Final Rule: Control of Emissions of Air Pollution from Locomotives and Marine Compression-Ignition Engines Less Than 30 Liters per Cylinder", published May 6, 2008 and republished June 30, 2008, and available at: http://www.epa.gov/oms/locomotives.htm#2008final.  The procedures used for calculating C3 commercial marine emissions are those developed in the recent C3 "Final Rule: Control of Emissions from New Marine Compression-Ignition Engines at or Above 30 Liters per Cylinder", published April 30, 2010 and available at: http://www.epa.gov/oms/oceanvessels.htm#car-ems.
2005 point sources (ptipm and ptnonipm sectors)
Point sources are sources of emissions for which specific geographic coordinates (e.g., latitude/longitude) are specified, as in the case of an individual facility.  A facility may have multiple emission points, which may be characterized as units such as boilers, reactors, spray booths, kilns, etc.  A unit may have multiple processes (e.g., a boiler that sometimes burns residual oil and sometimes burns natural gas).  Note that this section describes only NEI point sources within the contiguous United States.  The offshore oil platform (othpt sector) and category 3 CMV emissions (seca_c3 sector) are also point source formatted inventories but are unchanged for MATS modeling.  Discussion of the seca_c3 and othpt sector emissions can be found in the Final CSAPR TSD referenced in Section 2.3.2.

After removing offshore oil platforms (othpt sector), we created two platform sectors from the remaining 2005v2 NEI point sources for input into SMOKE: the EGU sector  -  also called the Integrated Planning Model (IPM) sector (i.e., ptipm) and the non-EGU sector  -  also called the non-IPM sector (i.e., ptnonipm).  This split facilitates the use of different SMOKE temporal processing and future-year projection techniques for each of these sectors.  The inventory pollutants processed through SMOKE for both ptipm and ptnonipm sectors were:  CO, NOX, VOC, SO2, NH3, PM10, and PM2.5 and the following HAPs:  HCl (pollutant code = 7647010), and CL2 (code = 7782505).  We did not utilize BAFM from these sectors as we chose to speciate VOC without any use (i.e., integration) of VOC HAP pollutants from the inventory (integration is discussed in detail in Section 3).

The ptnonipm emissions were provided to SMOKE as annual emissions.  The ptipm emissions for the base case were input to SMOKE as daily emissions.  The ptipm emissions are unchanged from those in the 2005v4.2 (basis for the Final CSAPR and Heavy Duty Greenhouse Gas (HDGHG) FRM) emission modeling platform.  However, for the ptnonipm sector for all MATS scenarios, including year 2005 emissions, we included additional known ethanol plants that were not previously included in 2005v4.2.  We also removed all onroad refueling emissions as these were replaced with MOVES-based onroad refueling emissions (discussed in Section 2.5.2).
Ethanol plants (ptnonipm)
We replaced all ethanol plants that OTAQ had supplied from the RFS2 rule  - see Section 2.1.2 in the CSAPR Final TSD- with those recently compiled for the 2005 case for MATS.  These plants represent a "Low Ethanol" scenario needed to produce only 4 billion gallons of ethanol, essentially a scenario without a future year RFS2 mandate (or MATS).  All ethanol plants were assigned or corrected (after quality assurance analyses) coordinates based on analysis using searches of company web sites and Google Earth verification for many sites.  Emissions were calculated based on plant design capacity and emission factors based on fuel type (e.g., coal, natural gas).  Finally, because benzene, acetaldehyde and formaldehyde (BAF) emissions were directly computed for these sources, unlike the rest of the ptnonipm sector, we treated these ethanol plants as VOC integrate sources.  A summary of the ethanol plant emissions used in the 2005 scenario is provided in Table 2-13.
                   Table 2-13.  2005 ethanol plant emissions
Pollutant
Emissions
1,3-Butadiene
                                                                         0.0003
Acrolein
                                                                           10.5
Formaldehyde
                                                                           13.3
Benzene
                                                                            5.7
Acetaldehyde
                                                                          314.4
CO
                                                                          7,023
NOX
                                                                          8,204
PM10
                                                                         10,107
PM2.5
                                                                          3,691
SO2
                                                                          9,001
VOC
                                                                         10,754
2005 nonpoint sources (afdust, ag, avefire, nonpt)
The year 2005 area-source fugitive dust (afdust), agricultural animal and fertilizer NH3 (ag), and average (typical)-year fires (avefire) emissions are the same as those used in the CSAPR Final (2005v4.2) emission modeling platform.  Nonpoint sources that were not subdivided into the afdust, ag, or avefire sectors were assigned to the "nonpt" sector, and most of these sources are also unchanged for MATS modeling.  The 2005 nonpoint sources that change are limited to portable fuel containers (PFCs) and onroad refueling.
Portable fuel containers
Year 2005 PFC emissions are unchanged from the CSAPR Final inventory except for the addition of ethanol.  Ethanol emissions were not provided for 2005, but were supplied for future year scenarios.  Therefore, we scaled year 2017 reference case ethanol emissions by the ratio of 2005 to 2017 base total VOC emissions to compute year 2005 ethanol emissions: 

Ethanol_2005 = Ethanol_2017reference * (VOC_2005 / VOC_2017reference)
Onroad refueling
As mentioned in Section 2.2, NEI-based onroad refueling emissions were replaced with estimates from the revised version of EPA's Motor Vehicle Emissions Simulator (MOVES2010a) at the county level for all twelve months.  This section describes how the emission inventories for refueling from on-road vehicles in calendar years 2005 and 2017 for MATS reference and control cases were generated for air quality modeling.  The refueling inventory includes emissions from spillage loss and displacement vapor loss.  For this analysis, the refueling emissions were estimated using the revised version of EPA's Motor Vehicle Emissions Simulator (MOVES2010a) at the county level for all twelve months.

In an effort to reduce MOVES runtime, the "representing counties" approach was used instead of running every single county in the lower 48 states.  As described in Section 2.2 for onroad counties, we selected representing counties by grouping counties based on Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADD), fuel parameters, usage of California emission standards, Inspection/Maintenance programs, and altitude.  One additional parameter included in developing the representing counties for refueling was temperature.

Temperature bins with increments of ten degrees F were created for the minimum and maximum temperatures for each month using the temperatures from the 2005 calendar year values in the CountyYearMonthHour table of the NMIM County Database (NCD) NCD20100602 NMIM database.  All counties in each group had min and max temperatures for all twelve months in the same temperature bins.

Once counties were grouped, the representing county was chosen as the one with the highest VMT, resulting in total of 238 counties.  The same set of county groups and representing counties was used for all years and scenarios.  

MOVES was run in inventory mode for only the representing counties using the county-specific on-road data, such as vehicle miles travelled, fleet age distribution, speed distribution, and meteorology, available from the NCD.  The customized fuel inputs, discussed in Section 2.2.2.1, were used for each of the representing counties.

The resulting refueling emission inventories for 238 representing counties in U.S. short tons were converted to emission factors by dividing the inventory by the corresponding activity in each representing county.  Then, the calculated emission factors from the representing counties were applied to the represented counties and multiplied by the county-specific activity to generate the inventories for all counties.
Other sources (biogenics, othpt, othar, and othon)
All emissions from Canada, Mexico, and Offshore Drilling platforms (othpt, othar, and othon), and all non-anthropogenic inventories (biogenics and ocean chlorine) are unchanged from the 2005v4.2 (used for the Final CSAPR and HDGHG FRM) emissions modeling platform.  The same emissions are used for all MATS scenarios and years.
Emissions summaries for 2005 base case
Once developed, the emissions inventories were processed to provide the hourly, gridded emissions for the model-species needed by CMAQ.  Table 2-14 provides summaries of the 2005 U.S. emissions inventories modeled for this rule by sector.  Table 2-15 and Table 2-16 provide state-level summaries of SO2, and PM2.5 by sector.  Note that the nonroad columns include emissions from traditional nonroad sources that are found "on-land", along with commercial marine sources. The nonpoint columns include area fugitive dust, agriculture, and other nonpoint emissions. 
            Table 2-14.  2005 U.S. emissions (tons/year) by sector
Emissions Sector
                                      NOX
                                      SO2
                                     PM2.5
                                     PM10
                                      NH3
                                      CO
                                      VOC
Agriculture
 
 
 
 
                                                                      3,251,990
 
 
Area fugitive Dust
 
 
                                                                      1,030,391
                                                                      8,858,992
 
 
 
Average fires
                                                                        189,428
                                                                         49,094
                                                                        684,035
                                                                        796,229
                                                                         36,777
                                                                      8,554,551
                                                                      1,958,992
Commercial marine 
Category 3 (US)
                                                                        130,164
                                                                         97,485
                                                                         10,673
                                                                         11,628
 
                                                                         11,862
                                                                          4,570
EGU
                                                                      3,729,161
                                                                     10,380,883
                                                                        496,877
                                                                        602,236
                                                                         21,995
                                                                        603,788
                                                                         41,089
Locomotive/ marine
                                                                      1,922,723
                                                                        153,068
                                                                         56,666
                                                                         59,342
                                                                            773
                                                                        270,007
                                                                         67,690
Non-EGU Point
                                                                      2,213,471
                                                                      2,030,759
                                                                        433,346
                                                                        647,873
                                                                        158,342
                                                                      3,201,418
                                                                      1,279,308
Nonpoint
                                                                      1,696,902
                                                                      1,216,362
                                                                      1,079,906
                                                                      1,349,639
                                                                        133,962
                                                                      7,410,946
                                                                      7,560,061
Nonroad
                                                                      2,031,527
                                                                        196,277
                                                                        201,406
                                                                        210,767
                                                                          1,971
                                                                     20,742,873
                                                                      2,806,422
Onroad
                                                                      8,235,002
                                                                        168,480
                                                                        301,073
                                                                        369,911
                                                                        144,409
                                                                     41,117,658
                                                                      3,267,931
US TOTAL
                                                                     20,148,378
                                                                     14,292,410
                                                                      4,294,373
                                                                     12,906,616
                                                                      3,750,218
                                                                     81,913,104
                                                                     16,986,064
  Table 2-15.  2005 base year SO2  emissions (tons/year) for states by sector
State
                                      EGU
                                    NonEGU
                                   Nonpoint
                                    Nonroad
                                    Onroad
                                     Fires
                                     Total
Alabama
                                                                        460,123
                                                                         66,373
                                                                         52,325
                                                                          5,622
                                                                          3,554
                                                                            983
                                                                        588,980
Arizona
                                                                         52,733
                                                                         23,966
                                                                          2,571
                                                                          6,151
                                                                          3,622
                                                                          2,888
                                                                         91,931
Arkansas
                                                                         66,384
                                                                         13,039
                                                                         27,260
                                                                          5,678
                                                                          1,918
                                                                            728
                                                                        115,008
California
                                                                            601
                                                                         33,097
                                                                         77,672
                                                                         40,222
                                                                          4,526
                                                                          6,735
                                                                        162,852
Colorado
                                                                         64,174
                                                                          1,550
                                                                          6,810
                                                                          4,897
                                                                          2,948
                                                                          1,719
                                                                         82,098
Connecticut
                                                                         10,356
                                                                          1,831
                                                                         18,455
                                                                          2,557
                                                                          1,337
                                                                              4
                                                                         34,540
Delaware
                                                                         32,378
                                                                         34,859
                                                                          1,030
                                                                          2,657
                                                                            486
                                                                              6
                                                                         71,416
District of Columbia
                                                                          1,082
                                                                            686
                                                                          1,559
                                                                            414
                                                                            205
                                                                              0
                                                                          3,947
Florida
                                                                        417,321
                                                                         57,429
                                                                         70,490
                                                                         31,190
                                                                         12,388
                                                                          7,018
                                                                        595,836
Georgia
                                                                        616,063
                                                                         52,827
                                                                         56,829
                                                                          9,224
                                                                          6,939
                                                                          2,010
                                                                        743,893
Idaho
                                                                              0
                                                                         17,151
                                                                          2,915
                                                                          2,304
                                                                            902
                                                                          3,845
                                                                         27,117
Illinois
                                                                        330,382
                                                                        131,357
                                                                          5,395
                                                                         19,305
                                                                          6,881
                                                                             20
                                                                        493,339
Indiana
                                                                        878,979
                                                                         86,337
                                                                         59,775
                                                                          9,437
                                                                          4,641
                                                                             24
                                                                      1,039,194
Iowa
                                                                        130,264
                                                                         41,010
                                                                         19,832
                                                                          8,838
                                                                          2,036
                                                                             25
                                                                        202,004
Kansas
                                                                        136,520
                                                                         12,926
                                                                         36,381
                                                                          8,035
                                                                          1,978
                                                                            103
                                                                        195,943
Kentucky
                                                                        502,731
                                                                         25,808
                                                                         34,229
                                                                          6,943
                                                                          3,240
                                                                            364
                                                                        573,315
Louisiana
                                                                        109,875
                                                                        165,705
                                                                          2,378
                                                                         25,451
                                                                          2,902
                                                                            892
                                                                        307,202
Maine
                                                                          3,887
                                                                         18,512
                                                                          9,969
                                                                          1,625
                                                                            963
                                                                            150
                                                                         35,106
Maryland
                                                                        283,205
                                                                         34,988
                                                                         40,864
                                                                          9,353
                                                                          3,016
                                                                             32
                                                                        371,458
Massachusetts
                                                                         84,234
                                                                         19,620
                                                                         25,261
                                                                          6,524
                                                                          2,669
                                                                             93
                                                                        138,402
Michigan
                                                                        349,877
                                                                         76,510
                                                                         42,066
                                                                         14,626
                                                                          8,253
                                                                             91
                                                                        491,423
Minnesota
                                                                        101,678
                                                                         24,603
                                                                         14,747
                                                                         10,409
                                                                          2,934
                                                                            631
                                                                        155,002
Mississippi
                                                                         75,047
                                                                         29,892
                                                                          6,796
                                                                          5,930
                                                                          2,590
                                                                          1,051
                                                                        121,306
Missouri
                                                                        284,384
                                                                         78,308
                                                                         44,573
                                                                         10,464
                                                                          4,901
                                                                            186
                                                                        422,816
Montana
                                                                         19,715
                                                                         11,056
                                                                          2,600
                                                                          3,813
                                                                            874
                                                                          1,422
                                                                         39,480
Nebraska
                                                                         74,955
                                                                          7,910
                                                                          7,659
                                                                          9,199
                                                                          1,510
                                                                            105
                                                                        101,337
Nevada
                                                                         53,363
                                                                          2,253
                                                                         12,477
                                                                          2,880
                                                                            656
                                                                          1,346
                                                                         72,975
New Hampshire
                                                                         51,445
                                                                          3,155
                                                                          7,408
                                                                            789
                                                                            746
                                                                             38
                                                                         63,580
New Jersey
                                                                         57,044
                                                                          7,639
                                                                         10,726
                                                                         13,321
                                                                          3,038
                                                                             61
                                                                         91,830
New Mexico
                                                                         30,628
                                                                          7,831
                                                                          3,193
                                                                          3,541
                                                                          1,801
                                                                          3,450
                                                                         50,445
New York
                                                                        180,847
                                                                         58,426
                                                                        125,158
                                                                         15,666
                                                                          6,258
                                                                            113
                                                                        386,468
North Carolina
                                                                        512,231
                                                                         59,433
                                                                         22,020
                                                                          8,766
                                                                          6,287
                                                                            696
                                                                        609,433
North Dakota
                                                                        137,371
                                                                          9,582
                                                                          6,455
                                                                          5,986
                                                                            533
                                                                             66
                                                                        159,994
Ohio
                                                                      1,116,095
                                                                        115,155
                                                                         19,810
                                                                         15,425
                                                                          7,336
                                                                             22
                                                                      1,273,843
Oklahoma
                                                                        110,081
                                                                         40,482
                                                                          8,556
                                                                          5,015
                                                                          3,039
                                                                            469
                                                                        167,642
Oregon
                                                                         12,304
                                                                          9,825
                                                                          9,845
                                                                          5,697
                                                                          1,790
                                                                          4,896
                                                                         44,357
Pennsylvania
                                                                      1,002,203
                                                                         83,375
                                                                         68,349
                                                                         11,999
                                                                          6,266
                                                                             32
                                                                      1,172,224
Rhode Island
                                                                            176
                                                                          2,743
                                                                          3,365
                                                                            816
                                                                            254
                                                                              1
                                                                          7,354
South Carolina
                                                                        218,781
                                                                         31,495
                                                                         13,489
                                                                          7,719
                                                                          3,589
                                                                            646
                                                                        275,719
South Dakota
                                                                         12,215
                                                                          1,702
                                                                         10,347
                                                                          3,412
                                                                            623
                                                                            498
                                                                         28,797
Tennessee
                                                                        266,148
                                                                         65,693
                                                                         32,714
                                                                          6,288
                                                                          5,538
                                                                            277
                                                                        376,659
Texas
                                                                        534,949
                                                                        223,625
                                                                        115,192
                                                                         34,944
                                                                         16,592
                                                                          1,178
                                                                        926,480
Tribal
                                                                              3
                                                                          1,511
                                                                              0
                                                                              0
                                                                              0
                                                                              0
                                                                          1,515
Utah
                                                                         34,813
                                                                          9,132
                                                                          3,577
                                                                          2,439
                                                                          1,890
                                                                          1,934
                                                                         53,784
Vermont
                                                                              9
                                                                            902
                                                                          5,385
                                                                            385
                                                                            342
                                                                             49
                                                                          7,073
Virginia
                                                                        220,287
                                                                         69,401
                                                                         32,923
                                                                         10,095
                                                                          4,600
                                                                            399
                                                                        337,705
Washington
                                                                          3,409
                                                                         24,211
                                                                          7,254
                                                                         18,810
                                                                          3,343
                                                                            407
                                                                         57,433
West Virginia
                                                                        469,456
                                                                         46,710
                                                                         14,589
                                                                          2,133
                                                                          1,378
                                                                            215
                                                                        534,481
Wisconsin
                                                                        180,200
                                                                         66,807
                                                                          6,369
                                                                          7,163
                                                                          3,647
                                                                             70
                                                                        264,256
Wyoming
                                                                         89,874
                                                                         22,321
                                                                          6,721
                                                                          2,674
                                                                            721
                                                                          1,106
                                                                        123,417
Total
                                                                     10,380,883
                                                                      2,030,759
                                                                      1,216,362
                                                                        446,831
                                                                        168,480
                                                                         49,094
                                                                     14,292,410
 Table 2-16.  2005 base year PM2.5 emissions (tons/year) for states by sector
State
                                      EGU
                                    NonEGU
                                   Nonpoint
                                    Nonroad
                                    Onroad
                                     Fires
                                     Total
Alabama
                                                                         23,366
                                                                         19,498
                                                                         35,555
                                                                          4,142
                                                                          5,775
                                                                         13,938
                                                                        102,273
Arizona
                                                                          7,418
                                                                          3,940
                                                                         21,402
                                                                          4,486
                                                                          6,920
                                                                         37,151
                                                                         81,316
Arkansas
                                                                          1,688
                                                                         10,820
                                                                         34,744
                                                                          3,803
                                                                          3,102
                                                                         10,315
                                                                         64,472
California
                                                                            347
                                                                         21,517
                                                                         94,200
                                                                         22,815
                                                                         26,501
                                                                         97,302
                                                                        262,682
Colorado
                                                                          4,342
                                                                          7,116
                                                                         25,340
                                                                          3,960
                                                                          4,377
                                                                         24,054
                                                                         69,189
Connecticut
                                                                            562
                                                                            224
                                                                         11,460
                                                                          1,740
                                                                          2,544
                                                                             56
                                                                         16,586
Delaware
                                                                          2,169
                                                                          1,810
                                                                          1,590
                                                                            818
                                                                            922
                                                                             87
                                                                          7,397
District of Columbia
                                                                             17
                                                                            172
                                                                            589
                                                                            277
                                                                            367
                                                                              0
                                                                          1,421
Florida
                                                                         24,217
                                                                         25,193
                                                                         52,955
                                                                         15,035
                                                                         16,241
                                                                         99,484
                                                                        233,125
Georgia
                                                                         28,057
                                                                         12,666
                                                                         63,133
                                                                          6,504
                                                                         12,449
                                                                         24,082
                                                                        146,892
Idaho
                                                                              0
                                                                          2,072
                                                                         41,492
                                                                          2,140
                                                                          1,402
                                                                         52,808
                                                                         99,914
Illinois
                                                                         16,585
                                                                         15,155
                                                                         74,045
                                                                         12,880
                                                                         12,574
                                                                            277
                                                                        131,516
Indiana
                                                                         34,439
                                                                         14,124
                                                                         74,443
                                                                          6,515
                                                                          7,585
                                                                            344
                                                                        137,450
Iowa
                                                                          8,898
                                                                          6,439
                                                                         54,312
                                                                          6,969
                                                                          3,468
                                                                            349
                                                                         80,436
Kansas
                                                                          5,549
                                                                          7,387
                                                                        138,437
                                                                          5,719
                                                                          3,109
                                                                          1,468
                                                                        161,669
Kentucky
                                                                         19,830
                                                                         10,453
                                                                         31,245
                                                                          4,762
                                                                          5,566
                                                                          5,155
                                                                         77,010
Louisiana
                                                                          5,599
                                                                         32,201
                                                                         28,164
                                                                          9,440
                                                                          4,288
                                                                         12,647
                                                                         92,339
Maine
                                                                             52
                                                                          3,783
                                                                         15,037
                                                                          1,363
                                                                          1,759
                                                                          2,127
                                                                         24,120
Maryland
                                                                         15,417
                                                                          6,768
                                                                         23,323
                                                                          3,410
                                                                          5,504
                                                                            531
                                                                         54,952
Massachusetts
                                                                          3,110
                                                                          2,245
                                                                         31,116
                                                                          3,293
                                                                          5,913
                                                                          1,324
                                                                         47,001
Michigan
                                                                         11,022
                                                                         12,926
                                                                         47,722
                                                                          8,561
                                                                         13,006
                                                                          1,283
                                                                         94,520
Minnesota
                                                                          3,262
                                                                         10,538
                                                                         73,990
                                                                          8,541
                                                                          6,842
                                                                          8,943
                                                                        112,116
Mississippi
                                                                          2,029
                                                                         10,602
                                                                         34,217
                                                                          4,133
                                                                          4,195
                                                                         14,897
                                                                         70,074
Missouri
                                                                          6,471
                                                                          6,966
                                                                         76,419
                                                                          7,230
                                                                          7,665
                                                                          2,636
                                                                        107,388
Montana
                                                                          2,398
                                                                          2,729
                                                                         30,096
                                                                          2,654
                                                                          1,347
                                                                         17,311
                                                                         56,536
Nebraska
                                                                          1,246
                                                                          2,340
                                                                         45,661
                                                                          5,848
                                                                          2,620
                                                                          1,483
                                                                         59,198
Nevada
                                                                          3,341
                                                                          4,095
                                                                          9,920
                                                                          2,212
                                                                          1,290
                                                                         19,018
                                                                         39,876
New Hampshire
                                                                          2,586
                                                                            568
                                                                         13,316
                                                                            907
                                                                          1,512
                                                                            534
                                                                         19,423
New Jersey
                                                                          4,625
                                                                          2,588
                                                                         13,623
                                                                          5,042
                                                                          5,963
                                                                            865
                                                                         32,707
New Mexico
                                                                          5,583
                                                                          1,460
                                                                         50,698
                                                                          1,959
                                                                          2,861
                                                                         48,662
                                                                        111,224
New York
                                                                          9,648
                                                                          4,994
                                                                         48,540
                                                                          8,607
                                                                         11,139
                                                                          1,601
                                                                         84,529
North Carolina
                                                                         16,967
                                                                         12,665
                                                                         49,551
                                                                          6,272
                                                                          8,939
                                                                          9,870
                                                                        104,264
North Dakota
                                                                          6,397
                                                                            598
                                                                         41,504
                                                                          4,552
                                                                            976
                                                                            934
                                                                         54,962
Ohio
                                                                         53,572
                                                                         12,847
                                                                         52,348
                                                                          9,847
                                                                         11,785
                                                                            316
                                                                        140,715
Oklahoma
                                                                          1,411
                                                                          6,246
                                                                         90,047
                                                                          3,765
                                                                          4,559
                                                                          6,644
                                                                        112,672
Oregon
                                                                            412
                                                                          8,852
                                                                         58,145
                                                                          3,741
                                                                          3,375
                                                                         65,350
                                                                        139,874
Pennsylvania
                                                                         55,547
                                                                         16,263
                                                                         44,607
                                                                          7,565
                                                                         11,058
                                                                            454
                                                                        135,494
Rhode Island
                                                                             10
                                                                            256
                                                                          1,289
                                                                            394
                                                                            577
                                                                             14
                                                                          2,540
South Carolina
                                                                         14,455
                                                                          4,779
                                                                         26,598
                                                                          3,491
                                                                          5,061
                                                                          9,163
                                                                         63,548
South Dakota
                                                                            390
                                                                          2,982
                                                                         33,678
                                                                          2,910
                                                                          1,056
                                                                          7,062
                                                                         48,079
Tennessee
                                                                         12,856
                                                                         21,912
                                                                         32,563
                                                                          5,072
                                                                          8,514
                                                                          3,934
                                                                         84,851
Texas
                                                                         21,464
                                                                         37,563
                                                                        194,036
                                                                         21,361
                                                                         29,859
                                                                         21,578
                                                                        325,861
Tribal
                                                                              0
                                                                          1,569
                                                                              0
                                                                              0
                                                                              0
                                                                              0
                                                                          1,569
Utah
                                                                          5,055
                                                                          3,595
                                                                         14,761
                                                                          1,627
                                                                          2,703
                                                                         27,412
                                                                         55,153
Vermont
                                                                             37
                                                                            337
                                                                          6,943
                                                                            479
                                                                            605
                                                                            696
                                                                          9,098
Virginia
                                                                         12,357
                                                                         11,455
                                                                         38,140
                                                                          5,968
                                                                          6,661
                                                                          5,659
                                                                         80,241
Washington
                                                                          2,396
                                                                          4,618
                                                                         45,599
                                                                          6,697
                                                                          6,721
                                                                          4,487
                                                                         70,519
West Virginia
                                                                         26,377
                                                                          5,154
                                                                         14,778
                                                                          1,702
                                                                          1,930
                                                                          3,050
                                                                         52,991
Wisconsin
                                                                          5,233
                                                                          7,967
                                                                         37,277
                                                                          6,083
                                                                          6,783
                                                                            994
                                                                         64,337
Wyoming
                                                                          8,068
                                                                         10,298
                                                                         31,645
                                                                          1,455
                                                                          1,103
                                                                         15,686
                                                                         68,254
Total
                                                                        496,877
                                                                        433,346
                                                                      2,110,298
                                                                        268,745
                                                                        301,073
                                                                        684,035
                                                                      4,294,373
VOC Speciation Changes that Represent Fuel Changes
A significant detail that is different in each of the MATS modeling cases than in the 2005v4.2 emissions modeling is the VOC speciation profiles used to split total VOC emissions into the VOC model species needed for CMAQ.  In this section, we summarize the various speciation profile information used in configuring the various cases.

A major change between the 2005v4.2 platform and the MATS base and future modeling is the integration of ethanol for key sectors and specific inventories.  In the previous platform, the inventories for specific sources had benzene, acetaldehyde, formaldehyde and/or methanol (BAFM).  These emissions would be integrated, namely their emissions would come from the inventory not from speciating VOC.  To prevent double counting, BAFM would be removed from VOC, leaving the remainder (NONHAPVOC) to be speciated to other components (i.e. non-BAFM species).  See section 3.1.2.1 of the 2005v4 platform for more details ftp://ftp.epa.gov/EmisInventory/2005v4/2005_emissions_tsd_07jul2010.pdf.  In the MATS modeling, if ethanol was present in the inventories, it would also be integrated.  To differentiate when a source was integrating BAFM versus EBAFM (ethanol in addition to BAFM), the speciation profiles is referred to as an "E-profile", for example pre-Tier 2 vehicles E10 gasoline exhaust speciation profile 8751 versus 8751E.  For the onroad sector, ethanol is integrated for all emissions from gasoline vehicles.  For the nonpt sector, ethanol is integrated for refueling and portable fuel containers (PFCs).  In the future-year case, the nonpt sector includes a cellulosic corn ethanol and biodiesel inventory (SCC 30125010) in which ethanol is integrated.  For fuel distribution operations associated with the bulk-plant-to-pump (btp) distribution, ethanol is speciated from VOC because the nonpoint inventories do not include ethanol specifically.

The onroad sector has some additional changes to VOC speciation.  Instead of speciating VOC, SMOKE-MOVES uses TOG instead of VOC.  Therefore, SMOKE does not need to convert VOC to TOG before creating NONHAPTOG and performing additional speciation. A second change in VOC speciation is the differentiation of a new mode.  In previous platforms, onroad mobile emissions were divided into exhaust and evaporative modes.  For the MATS base and future years, gasoline vehicle's evaporative mode is further divided into permeation specific emissions and evaporative.  Similar to evaporative and exhaust profiles, these profiles change between the base and future year cases.  Additional updates include headspace vapor speciation utilizes a combination of the E10 headspace vapor profile and E0 headspace vapor profile as opposed to using solely E0 for 2005, and a new Heavy Duty Diesel vehicle exhaust mode profile for pre-2007 model year (MY) vehicles that replaces an older 2004-vintage medium-duty diesel profile.  See Table 3-1 for more details.

The VOC speciation approach is customized to account for the impact of fuel changes in the future year case.  These changes affect the onroad sector, the nonroad sector, and parts of the nonpt and ptnonipm sectors.  These fuel changes and vehicle changes are implemented by using different VOC profiles and combination of profiles between the base and future cases.  The speciation changes from fuels in the nonpt sector are for refueling, portable fuel containers (PFCs), and fuel distribution operations associated with the bulk-plant-to-pump (btp) distribution.  The speciation changes from fuels in the ptnonipm sector include btp distribution operations inventoried as point sources.  Refinery to bulk terminal (rbt) fuel distribution speciation does not change across the modeling cases because this is considered upstream from the introduction of ethanol into the fuel.  Mapping of fuel distribution SCCs to btp and rbt emissions categories can be found in Appendix A of the revised annual Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS2) Emissions Inventory for Air Quality Modeling Technical Support Document (EPA Report No. 420-R-10-005, January 2010, http://www.epa.gov/otaq/renewablefuels/420r10005.pdf).

Table 3-1 summarizes the different profiles utilized for the fuel-related sources in each of the sectors for 2005 and the future year cases.  A comparison of the 2005v4.2 platform with the MATS 2005 case is also included. Appendix A lists ancillary input data set names used for MATS emissions.

                                       
Table 3-1.  Summary of VOC speciation profile approaches by sector across cases
Category
                                   2005v4.2
                                   2005 MATS
                              2017 MATS reference
Onroad Gasoline
                                       
Exhaust
                                     COMBO
                                     COMBO
                                     COMBO

                                                                           8750
Pre-Tier 2 E0 exhaust
                                                                          8750E
Pre-Tier 2 E0 exhaust
                                                                          8751E
Pre-Tier 2 E10 exhaust

                                                                           8751
Pre-Tier 2 E10 exhaust
                                                                          8751E
Pre-Tier 2 E10 exhaust
                                                                          8757E
Tier 2 E10 Exhaust

                                                                          8758E
Tier 2 E15 Exhaust
Evaporative
                                    COMBO 
                      COMBO (All evap except permeation)
                      COMBO (All evap except permeation)

                                                                           8753
E0 Evap
                                                                          8753E
E0 Evap
                                                                          8754E
E10 Evap

                                                                           8754
E10 Evap
                                                                          8754E
E10 Evap
                                                                          8872E
E15 Evap

                            COMBO (Permeation evap)
                            COMBO (Permeation evap)

                                                                          8766E
E0 evap perm
                                                                          8769E
E10 evap perm

                                                                          8769E
E10 evap perm
                                                                          8770E
E15 evap perm
Refueling
                                                                           8762
E0 Headspace composite
                                     COMBO
                                     COMBO

                                                                          8869E
E0 Headspace
                                                                          8870E
E10 Headspace

                                                                          8870E
E10 Headspace
                                                                          8871E
E15 Headspace
Onroad Diesel
                                       
Exhaust
                                                                           4674
2004 MDD exhaust
                                                                           8774
Pre-2007 MY HDD exhaust
                                                                          877T3
Pre & Post 2007 MY HDD exhaust

                        Weighted 8774 and 8775 profiles
Evaporative
                                                                           4547
Diesel Headspace
                                                                           4547
Diesel Headspace
                                                                           4547
Diesel Headspace
Refuel
                                                                           4547
Diesel Headspace
                                                                           4547
Diesel Headspace
                                                                           4547
Diesel Headspace
Nonroad Gasoline
                                       
Exhaust
                                     COMBO
                                     COMBO
                                                                           8751
Pre-Tier 2 E10 exhaust

                                                                           8750
Pre-Tier 2 E0 exhaust
                                                                           8750
Pre-Tier 2 E0 exhaust

                                                                           8751
Pre-Tier 2 E10 exhaust
                                                                           8751
Pre-Tier 2 E10 exhaust

Evaporative
                                     COMBO
                                     COMBO
                                                                           8754
E10 Evap

                                                                           8753
E0 evap
                                                                           8753
E0 evap

                                                                           8754
E10 evap
                                                                           8754
E10 evap

Refueling
                                                                           8762
E0 Headspace composite
                                     COMBO
                                                                           8870
E10 Headspace

                                                                           8869
E0 Headspace

                                                                           8870
E10 Headspace

Nonroad Diesel
                                       
Exhaust
                                                                           4674
2004 MDD exhaust
                                                                           8774
Pre-2007 MY HDD exhaust
                                                                           8774
Pre-2007 MY HDD exhaust
Evaporative
                                                                           4547
Diesel Headspace
                                                                           4547
Diesel Headspace
                                                                           4547
Diesel Headspace
Refueling
                                                                           4547
Diesel Headspace
                                                                           4547
Diesel Headspace
                                                                           4547
Diesel Headspace
PFC
                                                                           8762
E0 Headspace composite
                                     COMBO
                                                                          8870E
E10 Headspace

                                                                          8869E
E0 Headspace

                                                                          8870E
E10 Headspace

Aircraft
                                                                           5565
Aircraft Exhaust
                                                                          5565*
Aircraft Exhaust
                                                                          5565*
Aircraft Exhaust

* Updated version in SPECIATE 4.3
* Updated version in SPECIATE 4.3
Locomotives
                                                                           4674
2004 MDD exhaust
                                                                           8774
Pre-2007 MY HDD exhaust
                                                                           8774
Pre-2007 MY HDD exhaust
Marine
                                                                           2480
Ship Channel Downwind
                                                                           2480
Ship Channel Downwind
                                                                           2480
Ship Channel Downwind
BTP
                                                                           8762
E0 Headspace composite
                                     COMBO
                                     COMBO

                                                                           8869
E0 Headspace
                                                                           8870
E10 Headspace

                                                                           8870
E10 Headspace
                                                                           8871
E15 Headspace
RBT/BPS
                                                                           8762
E0 Headspace composite
                                                                           8869
E0 Headspace
                                                                           8869
E0 Headspace
Ethanol Plants
                                                                           1188
fermentation process
                                                                           8776
Ethanol Fuel Prod
                                                                           8776
Ethanol Fuel Prod[a]

                                                                          8776E
Ethanol Fuel Prod[b]

[a] corn ethanol and  biodiesel ptnonipm

[b] cellulosic ethanol & cellulosic diesel nonpt

                                       
                                       
2017 Reference Case
The 2017 reference case represents the future, including the implementation of emissions impacts of the fuel volumes mandated by the 2005 EPAct and 2007 EISA and finalized in the RFS2 program.  The reference case includes MSAT2 and LDGHG but does not include HDGHG impacts.  The 2017 reference case assumes 21.6 billion gallons of renewable fuels (24 billion ethanol-equivalent gallons due to volume increases of ethanol), with 17.8 billion gallons of E10 and E15, 1.5 billion gallons of biodiesel, 0.2 billion gallons of renewable diesel, and 2.2 billion gallons of cellulosic diesel. The fuel changes required upstream emissions estimates and adjustments in addition to the downstream changes to onroad and nonroad mobile source emissions.  For nonroad mobile sources, onroad mobile including refueling sources, OTAQ-generated emissions were provided to reflect the reference case fuels.  

The 2017 reference case uses many of the same growth and control assumptions as those for the Final Cross-State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR), because other than onroad mobile, nonroad mobile, onroad refueling, PFC, and ethanol plant sources, both MATS and CSAPR use the same 2005v4.2-based emissions inventories.  There are some differences between the 2012 and 2014 base case projections in CSAPR and the 2017 reference case for MATS:

   1) 2017 includes some additional controls that were promulgated after 2014, (e.g., post-2014 consent decrees and fuel sulfur rules in a couple of states).
   2) Growth factors for several sources are year-specific; so while the methodology is the same as CSAPR, the future year emissions estimates differ (e.g., oil and gas in a couple states, residential wood combustion).
   3) Onroad refueling uses year and scenario-specific (i.e., reference) MOVES emissions for all MATS modeling, rather than NEI emissions.
   4) There is a new dataset of ethanol plants that replace a limited set of NEI ethanol plants in 2005v4.2-based CSAPR 2012 and 2014 projections.  These MATS reference case emissions are the same for the 2005 and 2017 base case.
   5) Minor errors identified after CSAPR modeling was complete were fixed (e.g, we include agricultural dust projections for the couple of states that provided point source farms).

The remainder of Section 4 is very similar to Section 4 in the CSAPR emissions modeling TSD, available from ftp://ftp.epa.gov/EmisInventory/2005v4_2/transportrulefinal_eitsd_28jun2011.pdf, but with the updates described above.

The future case projection methodologies vary by sector.  For EGU emissions (ptipm sector), the emissions reflect state rules and federal consent decrees through December 1, 2010.  For onroad mobile sources, all national measures for which data were available at the time of modeling have been included.  The future case scenarios reflect projected economic changes and fuel usage for EGU and mobile sectors.  For nonEGU point (ptnonipm sector) and nonpoint stationary sources (nonpt, ag, and afdust sectors), local control programs that might have been necessary for areas to attain the 1997 PM2.5 NAAQS annual standard, 2006 PM NAAQS (24-hour) standard, and the 1997 ozone NAAQS are generally not included in the future base-case projections for most states.  One exception are some NOX and VOC reductions associated with the New York, Virginia, and Connecticut State Implementation Plans (SIP), which were added as part of the comments received from the CSAPR and a larger effort to start including more local control information on stationary non-EGU sources; this is described further in Section 4.2.  The following bullets summarize the projection methods used for sources in the various sectors, while additional details and data sources are given in Table 4-1.
   * IPM sector (ptipm):  Unit-specific estimates from IPM, version 4.10.
   * Non-IPM sector (ptnonipm):  Projection factors and percent reductions reflect CSAPR (Transport Rule) comments and emission reductions due to control programs, plant closures, consent decrees and settlements, and 1997 and 2001 ozone State Implementation Plans in NY, CT, and VA.  We also used projection approaches for point-source livestock, and aircraft that are consistent with projections used for the sectors that contain the bulk of these emissions.  Terminal area forecast (TAF) data aggregated to the national level were used for aircraft to account for projected changes in landing/takeoff activity.  Year-specific speciation was applied to some portions of this sector and was discussed in Section 3.
   * Average fires sector (avefire):  No growth or control.
   * Agricultural sector (ag):  Projection factors for livestock estimates based on expected changes in animal population from 2005 Department of Agriculture data; no growth or control for NH3 emissions from fertilizer application.
   * Area fugitive dust sector (afdust):  Projection factors for dust categories related to livestock estimates based on expected changes in animal population; no growth or control for other categories in this sector.
   * Remaining Nonpoint sector (nonpt):  Projection factors that implement CSAPR Proposal comments and reflect emission reductions due to control programs.  Residential wood combustion projections based on growth in lower-emitting stoves and a reduction in higher emitting stoves.  PFC projection factors reflecting impact of the final Mobile Source Air Toxics (MSAT2) rule and include ethanol emissions.  Gasoline stage II onroad refueling emissions obtained directly from MOVES.  Oil and gas projection estimates are provided for the non-California Western Regional Air Partnership (WRAP) states as well as Oklahoma and Texas.  Year-specific speciation was applied to some portions of this sector and was discussed in Section 3.
   * Nonroad mobile sector (nonroad):  Same version of the NONROAD2008a, including same set of 293 county groups and representing counties as the 2005 base case.  Future-year equipment population estimates and control programs (final locomotive-marine and small spark ignition) to 2017 are included.  The only differences between the MATS future case runs are the fuels used, specifically, the ratio of E10 and E15 fuels.  Year-specific speciation was applied to some portions of this sector and is discussed in Section 3.
   * Locomotive, and non-Class 3 commercial marine sector (alm_no_c3):  Projection factors for Class 1 and Class 2 commercial marine and locomotives which reflect CSAPR Proposal comments and activity growth and final locomotive-marine controls.
   * Class 3 commercial marine vessel sector (seca_c3):  Base-year 2005 emissions grown and controlled to 2017, incorporating CSAPR Proposal comments and controls based on Emissions Control Area (ECA) and International Marine Organization (IMO) global NOX and SO2 controls.
   * Onroad mobile sector uses a version MOVES developed for the Tier 3 Proposal that incorporates new car and light truck greenhouse gas emissions standards (LDGHG) affecting model years 2012 and later (published May 7, 2010).  These emissions also include RFS2 fuels.  VOC speciation uses different future-year values to take into account both the increase in ethanol use, and the existence of Tier 2 vehicles that use a different speciation profile.  This sector includes all non-refueling onroad mobile emissions (exhaust, evaporative, brake wear and tire wear modes).  SMOKE-MOVES was used in a similar configuration as the 2005 base case to apportion MOVES emissions factors into hourly gridded temperature-adjusted emissions.
   * Other nonroad/nonpoint (othar):  No growth or control.  
   * Other onroad sector (othon):  No growth or control.
   * Other nonroad/nonpoint (othar):  No growth or control.
   * Other point (othpt):  No growth or control.
   * Biogenic:  2005 emissions used for all future-year scenarios.

Table 4-1 summarizes the control strategies and growth assumptions by source type that were used to create the 2017 reference-case emissions from the 2005v4.2 base-case inventories.  These future year base case projections and controls are also included in the MATS reference and control cases.  All Mexico, Canada, and offshore oil emissions are unchanged in all future cases from those in the 2005 base case.  

Lists of the control, closures, projection packets (datasets) used to create the MATS 2017 future case inventories from the 2005 MATS base case are provided in Appendix C. 
	
The remainder of this section is organized either by source sector or by specific emissions category within a source sector for which a distinct set of data were used or developed for the purpose of projections for the MATS Rule.  This organization allows consolidation of the discussion of the emissions categories that are contained in multiple sectors, because the data and approaches used across the sectors are consistent and do not need to be repeated.  Sector names associated with the emissions categories are provided in parentheses.

Table 4-1.  Control strategies and growth assumptions for creating the 2017 reference case emissions inventories from the 2005 base case
Control Strategies and/or growth assumptions
(grouped by affected pollutants or standard and approach used to apply to the inventory)
Pollutants affected
Approach/ Reference
             Non-EGU Point (ptnonipm sector) projection approaches
MACT rules, national, VOC: national applied by SCC, MACT
Boat Manufacturing 
Wood Building Products Surface Coating
Generic MACT II: Spandex Production, Ethylene manufacture
Large Appliances
Miscellaneous Organic NESHAP (MON): Alkyd Resins, Chelating Agents, Explosives,        Phthalate Plasticizers, Polyester Resins, Polymerized Vinylidene Chloride
Reinforced Plastics
Asphalt Processing & Roofing
Iron & Steel Foundries
Metal: Can, Coil
Metal Furniture
Miscellaneous Metal Parts & Products
Municipal Solid Waste Landfills
Paper and Other Web
Plastic Parts
Plywood and Composite Wood Products
Carbon Black Production
Cyanide Chemical Manufacturing
Friction Products Manufacturing
Leather Finishing Operations
Miscellaneous Coating Manufacturing
Organic Liquids Distribution (Non-Gasoline)
Refractory Products Manufacturing
Sites Remediation
                                      VOC
                                  EPA, 2007a
Consent decrees on companies (based on information from the Office of Enforcement and Compliance Assurance  -  OECA) apportioned to plants owned/operated by the companies
VOC, CO, NOx, PM, SO2 
                                       1
DOJ Settlements: plant SCC controls for:
Alcoa, TX 
Premcor (formerly Motiva), DE 
All
                                       2
Refinery Consent Decrees:  plant/SCC controls
NOx, PM, SO2
                                       3
Hazardous Waste Combustion
PM 
                                       4
Municipal Waste Combustor Reductions  - plant level 
PM
                                       5
Hospital/Medical/Infectious Waste Incinerator Regulations
NOX, PM, SO2
                                   EPA, 2005
Large Municipal Waste Combustors  -  growth applied to specific plants
All (including Hg)
                                       5
MACT rules, plant-level, VOC: Auto Plants
VOC
                                       6
MACT rules, plant-level, PM & SO2: Lime Manufacturing
PM, SO2
                                       7
MACT rules, plant-level, PM: Taconite Ore
PM
                                       8
Livestock Emissions Growth from year 2002 to year 2017 (some farms in the point inventory)
NH3, PM
                                       9
NESHAP:  Portland Cement (09/09/10)  -  plant level based on Industrial Sector Integrated Solutions (ISIS) policy emissions in 2013.  The ISIS results are from the ISIS-Cement model runs for the NESHAP and NSPS analysis of July 28, 2010 and include closures.
Hg, NOX, SO2, PM, HCl
                                 10; EPA, 2010
New York ozone SIP controls
VOC, NOX,
 HAP VOC
                                      11
Additional plant and unit closures provided by state, regional, and the EPA agencies and additional consent decrees.  Includes updates from CSAPR comments.
All
                                      12
Emission reductions resulting from controls put on specific boiler units (not due to MACT) after 2005, identified through analysis of the control data gathered from the Information Collection Request (ICR) from the Industrial/Commercial/Institutional Boiler NESHAP.
NOX, SO2, HCl
                               Section 4.2.13.2
Reciprocating Internal Combustion Engines (RICE) NESHAP
NOX, CO, PM, SO2
                                      13
Ethanol plants that account for increased ethanol production due to RFS2 mandate
All
                                      14
State fuel sulfur content rules for fuel oil  - effective only in Maine, New Jersey, and New York
SO2
                                      15
                 Nonpoint (nonpt sector) projection approaches
Municipal Waste Landfills: projection factor of 0.25 applied
All
EPA, 2007a
Livestock Emissions Growth from year 2002 to 2017
NH3, PM
                                       9
New York, Connecticut, and Virginia ozone SIP controls
VOC
                                    11, 16
RICE NESHAP
NOX, CO, VOC, PM, SO2
                                      13
State fuel sulfur content rules for fuel oil  - effective only in Maine, New Jersey, and New York
SO2
                                      15
Residential Wood Combustion Growth and Change-outs from year 2005 to 2017 
All
                                      17
Gasoline and diesel fuel Stage II refueling via MOVES2010a month-specific inventories for 2017 with assumed RFS2 and LDGHG fuels
VOC, Benzene, Ethanol
                                      18
Portable Fuel Container Mobile Source Air Toxics Rule 2 (MSAT2) inventory growth and control from year 2005 to 2017 
VOC
                                      19
Use Phase II WRAP 2018 Oil and Gas
VOC, SO2, NOX, CO
                                Section 4.2.14
Use 2008 Oklahoma and Texas Oil and Gas, and apply year 2017 projections for TX, and RICE NESHAP controls to Oklahoma emissions.
VOC, SO2, NOX, CO, PM
                                Section 4.2.14

APPROACHES/REFERENCES- Non-EGU Stationary Sources:

    1.     Appendix B in the MATS Proposal TSD:  http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/emch/toxics/proposed_toxics_rule_appendices.pdf
    2.     For Alcoa consent decree, used http:// cfpub.epa.gov/compliance/cases/index.cfm; for  Motiva: used information sent by State of Delaware
    3.     Used data provided by the EPA, OAQPS, Sector Policies and Programs Division (SPPD).
    4.     Obtained from Anne Pope, the US EPA - Hazardous Waste Incinerators criteria and hazardous air pollutant controls carried over from 2002 Platform, v3.1. 
    5.     Used data provided by the EPA, OAQPS SPPD expert.
    6.     Percent reductions and plants to receive reductions based on recommendations by rule lead engineer, and are consistent with the reference:  EPA, 2007a
    7.     Percent reductions recommended are determined from the existing plant estimated baselines and estimated reductions as shown in the Federal Register Notice for the rule.  SO2 percent reduction are computed by 6,147/30,783 = 20% and PM10 and PM2.5 reductions are computed by 3,786/13,588 = 28%
    8.     Same approach as used in the 2006 Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR), which estimated reductions of "PM emissions by 10,538 tpy, a reduction of about 62%."  Used same list of plants as were identified based on tonnage and SCC from CAIR: http://www.envinfo.com/caain/June04updates/tiop_fr2.pdf
    9.     Except for dairy cows and turkeys (no growth), based on animal population growth estimates from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the Food and Agriculture Policy and Research Institute.  See Section 4.2.10.
    10.     Data files for the cement sector provided by Elineth Torres, the EPA-SPPD, from the analysis done for the Cement NESHAP:  The ISIS documentation and analysis for the cement NESHAP/NSPS is in the docket of that rulemaking- docket # EPA-HQ-OAR-2002-005.  The Cement NESHAP is in the Federal Register: September 9, 2010 (Volume 75, Number 174, Page 54969-55066
    11.     New York NOX and VOC reductions obtained from Appendix J in NY Department of Environmental Conservation Implementation Plan for Ozone (February 2008): http://www.dec.ny.gov/docs/air_pdf/NYMASIP7final.pdf.
    12.     Appendix D of Cross-State Air Pollution Rule:  ftp://ftp.epa.gov/EmisInventory/2005v4_2/transportrulefinal_eitsd_appendices_28jun2011.pdf
    13.     Appendix F in the Proposed (Mercury and Air) Toxics Rule TSD:  http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/emch/toxics/proposed_toxics_rule_appendices.pdf
    14.     The 2008 data used came from Illinois' submittal of 2008 emissions to the NEI.
    15.     Based on available, enforceable state sulfur rules as of November, 2010: http://www.ilta.org/LegislativeandRegulatory/MVNRLM/NEUSASulfur%20Rules_09.2010.pdf , http://www.mainelegislature.org/legis/bills/bills_124th/billpdfs/SP062701.pdf , http://switchboard.nrdc.org/blogs/rkassel/governor_paterson_signs_new_la.html , http://green.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/07/20/new-york-mandates-cleaner-heating-oil/
    16.     VOC reductions in Connecticut and Virginia obtained from CSAPR comments.
    17.     Growth and Decline in woodstove types based on industry trade group data, See Section 4.2.11.
    18.     MOVES (2010a) results for onroad refueling including activity growth from VMT, Stage II control programs at gasoline stations, and phase in of newer vehicles with onboard Stage II vehicle controls.  http://www.epa.gov/otaq/models/moves/index.htm
    19.     VOC, benzene, and ethanol emissions for 2017 based on MSAT2 rule and ethanol fuel assumptions (EPA, 2007b)

Onroad mobile and nonroad mobile controls 
(list includes all key mobile control strategies but is not exhaustive)
National Onroad Rules:
Tier 2 Rule:  Signature date February, 2000
2007 Onroad Heavy-Duty Rule:  February, 2009
Final Mobile Source Air Toxics Rule (MSAT2):  February, 2007
Renewable Fuel Standard:  March, 2010
Light Duty Greenhouse Gas Rule: May, 2010
Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards for 2008-2011
all
1
Local Onroad Programs:
National Low Emission Vehicle Program (NLEV):  March, 1998
Ozone Transport Commission (OTC) LEV Program:  January,1995
VOC
2
National Nonroad Controls:
Clean Air Nonroad Diesel Final Rule  -  Tier 4:  June, 2004
Control of Emissions from Nonroad Large-Spark Ignition Engines and Recreational Engines (Marine and Land Based): "Pentathalon Rule":  November, 2002
Clean Bus USA Program:  October, 2007
Control of Emissions of Air Pollution from Locomotives and Marine Compression-Ignition Engines Less than 30 Liters per Cylinder: October, 2008
Locomotive and marine rule (May 6, 2008)
Marine SI rule (October 4, 1996)
Nonroad large SI and recreational engine rule (November 8, 2002)
Nonroad SI rule (October 8, 2008)
Phase 1 nonroad SI rule (July 3, 1995)
Tier 1 nonroad diesel rule (June 17, 2004)
all
3,4,5
Aircraft (emissions are in the nonEGU point inventory):
Itinerant (ITN) operations at airports to 2017 
all
6
Locomotives:
Energy Information Administration (EIA) fuel consumption projections for freight rail
Clean Air Nonroad Diesel Final Rule  -  Tier 4:  June 2004
Locomotive Emissions Final Rulemaking, December 17, 1997
Locomotive rule: April 16, 2008
Control of Emissions of Air Pollution from Locomotives and Marine:  May 2008
all
EPA, 2009; 3; 4; 5
Commercial Marine:
Category 3 marine diesel engines Clean Air Act and International Maritime Organization standards (April, 30, 2010)  - also includes CSAPR comments.
EIA fuel consumption projections for diesel-fueled vessels
Clean Air Nonroad Diesel Final Rule  -  Tier 4
Emissions Standards for Commercial Marine Diesel Engines, December 29, 1999
Locomotive and marine rule (May 6, 2008)
Tier 1 Marine Diesel Engines, February 28, 2003
all
7, 3; EPA, 2009
APPROACHES/REFERENCES  -  Mobile Sources

    1.     http://epa.gov/otaq/hwy.htm
    2.     Only for states submitting these inputs:  http://www.epa.gov/otaq/lev-nlev.htm
    3.     http://www.epa.gov/nonroad-diesel/2004fr.htm
    4.     http://www.epa.gov/cleanschoolbus/
    5.     http://www.epa.gov/otaq/marinesi.htm
    6.     Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) System, January 2010: http://www.apo.data.faa.gov/main/taf.asp
    7.     http://www.epa.gov/otaq/oceanvessels.htm
Stationary source projections:  EGU sector (ptipm)
The future-year data for the ptipm sector used in the air quality modeling were created using version 4.10 Final of the Integrated Planning Model (IPM) (http://www.epa.gov/airmarkt/progsregs/epa-ipm/index.html).  The IPM is a multiregional, dynamic, deterministic linear programming model of the U.S. electric power sector.  Version 4.10 Final reflects federal and state rules and binding, enforceable consent decrees through December of 2010.  The 2017 IPM emissions reflect the CSAPR as finalized in July 2011.  The reference case, also known as the future year baseline, emissions do not reflect the final Mercury and Air Toxics (MATS) rule, but the control case emissions do reflect the rule.  Neither case reflects the Boiler MACT regulatory assumptions.

Version 4.10 Final reflects state rules and consent decrees through December 1, 2010, information obtained from the 2010 Information Collection Request (ICR), and information from comments received on the IPM-related Notice of Data Availability (NODA) published on September 1, 2010. Notably, IPM 4.1 Final included the addition of over 20 GW of existing Activated Carbon Injection (ACI) for coal-fired EGUs reported to EPA via the ICR. Additional unit-level updates that identified existing pollution controls (such as scrubbers) were also made based on the ICR and on comments from the IPM NODA. Units with SO2 or NOX advanced controls (e.g., scrubber, SCR) that were not required to run for compliance with Title IV, New Source Review (NSR), state settlements, or state-specific rules were modeled by IPM to either operate those controls or not based on economic efficiency parameters. The IPM run for the reference case modeled with CMAQ assumed that 100% of the HCl found in the coal was emitted into the atmosphere. However, in the final IPM results for the rule, neutralization of 75% of the available HCl was included based on recent findings.

Further details on the reference case EGU emissions inventory used for this rule can be found in the IPM v.4.10 Documentation, available at http://www.epa.gov/airmarkets/progsregs/epa-ipm/transport.html. The reference case modeled in IPM for this rule includes estimates of emissions reductions that will result from the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule. However, reductions from the Boiler MACT rule were not represented this modeling because the rule was stayed at the time the modeling was performed. A complete list of state regulations, NSR settlements, and state settlements included in the IPM modeling is given in Appendices 3-2, 3-3, and 3-4 beginning on p. 68 of http://www.epa.gov/airmarkets/progsregs/epa-ipm/CSAPR/docs/DocSuppv410_FTransport.pdf. For the 2017 reference case EGU emissions, the IPM outputs for 2020, which are also representative of the year 2017, were used. These emissions were very similar to the year 2015 emissions output from the same IPM modeling case.

Directly emitted PM emissions (i.e., PM2.5 and PM10) from the EGU sector are computed via a post processing routine which applies emission factors to the IPM-estimated fuel throughput based on fuel, configuration and controls to compute the filterable and condensable components of PM.  This methodology is documented in the IPM CSAPR TSD.
Stationary source projections:  non-EGU sectors (ptnonipm, nonpt, ag, afdust)
To project U.S. stationary sources other than the ptipm sector, we applied growth factors and/or controls to certain categories within the ptnonipm, nonpt, ag and afdust platform sectors.  This subsection provides details on the data and projection methods used for these sectors.  The MATS future year scenarios also required obtaining and preprocessing numerous other inputs that we received directly from OTAQ.  

In estimating future-year emissions, we assumed that emissions growth does not track with economic growth for many stationary non-IPM sources.  This "no-growth" assumption is based on an examination of historical emissions and economic data.  More details on the rationale for this approach can be found in Appendix D of the Regulatory Impact Assessment for the PM NAAQS rule (EPA, 2006).

The starting point for projecting the 2005 MATS emissions was to use similar emission projection methodologies as used for the 2005v4.2 platform for the Final CSAPR, which incorporated responses to public comments on the modeling inventories.  The 2012 and 2014 projection factors developed for the CSAPR (see http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/emch/index.html#final) were updated to reflect year 2017.

Year-specific projection factors for years 2017 were created.  Growth factors (and control factors) are provided in the following sections where feasible.  However, some sectors used growth or control factors that varied geographically and their contents could not be provided in the following sections (e.g., gasoline distribution varies by state and pollutant and has hundreds of records).  

Table 4-2 lists the stationary non-EGU inputs and projection factors that were applied to account for the year 2017 RFS2 mandate impacts on emissions to the reference case.  These inputs are discussed in more detail in Section 4.2.1 through Section 4.2.9.  All other stationary non-EGU projections, controls and plant closure information not related to the RFS2 impacts are discussed in Section 4.2.10 through Section 4.2.13.  All stationary non-EGU emissions in the 2017 reference case are unchanged in the 2017 control case (see Section 5); therefore, we will simply note that these emissions are "year 2017" rather than the more cumbersome "year 2017 reference case".
   Table 4-2.  MATS reference case mobile source-related projection methods
Input
Type
Sector(s)
Description
Corn ethanol plants
SMOKE ORL file that replaces 2005 base case ORL file
ptnonipm
Based on RFS2 analysis and production volumes.  Point source format.
Biodiesel plants
SMOKE ORL file 
ptnonipm
Accounts for facilities with current production capacities, to support RFS2 biodiesel production.  Point source format.
Cellulosic fuel production
SMOKE ORL file
nonpt
Accounts for cellulosic ethanol and cellulosic diesel to support RFS2 cellulosic production.  County-level (nonpoint) format.
Ethanol transport and distribution
SMOKE ORL file
nonpt
Accounts for ethanol vapor losses and spillage at any point in the transport and distribution chain.  County-level (nonpoint) format.
Portable Fuel Containers (PFCs)
SMOKE ORL 
nonpt
NONROAD-model based emissions from PFCs, including vapor displacement, tank permeation, and diurnal evaporation.  County-level (nonpoint) format.
Onroad refueling
SMOKE ORL file 
nonpt 
MOVES-based gasoline and diesel fuel spillage and displacement vapor losses.  County-level (nonpoint) format, monthly resolution.
Refinery adjustments
Projection factors
ptnonipm
Not in base cases, accounts for changes in various refinery processes due to incorporation of RFS2 fuels.
Ethanol transport gasoline & ethanol blends
Projection factors
nonpt, ptnonipm
Not in base cases, accounts for RFS impacts on emissions from bulk plant storage, refinery to bulk terminal, and bulk terminal to pump.
Upstream agricultural adjustments
Projection factors
afdust, ag, nonpt, ptnonipm
Not in base cases, accounts for changes in ag burning/dust, fertilizer application/production, livestock dust/waste and pesticide application/production.
Ethanol plants (ptnonipm)
As discussed in Section 2.4.1, we replaced all corn ethanol plants that OTAQ had supplied from the RFS2 rule  - see Section 2.1.2 in the CSAPR Final TSD- with those recently compiled for 2005 and a year 2017 without the RFS2 mandate (not separately modeled for this rule).  Additional ethanol plants cited for development in support of increased ethanol production for RFS2 are the cause for the increased number of facilities and emissions in the reference case.  Table 4-3 provides the summaries for the corn ethanol plants in the 2017 reference case.
         Table 4-3.  2017 reference case corn ethanol plant emissions
Pollutant
                                                                           Tons
1,3-Butadiene
                                                                         0.0011
Acrolein
                                                                           41.7
Formaldehyde
                                                                           45.2
Benzene
                                                                           20.3
Acetaldehyde
                                                                          643.2
CO
                                                                         14,847
NOX
                                                                         20,035
PM10
                                                                         21,639
PM2.5
                                                                          6,825
SO2
                                                                         11,299
VOC
                                                                         35,459
Biodiesel plants (ptnonipm)
OTAQ developed an inventory of existing biodiesel plants for 2017 that were sited at existing plant locations in support of producing biodiesel fuels for the RFS2 mandate.  The RFS2 calls for 1.45 billion gallons per year (Bgal) of biodiesel fuel production by year 2017.  Only plants with current production capacities were assumed to be operating in 2017.  Total plant capacity at these existing facilities is limited to just over 1 Bgal.  There was no attempt to site future year plants to account for the need to match biodiesel production needed for RFS2.  Therefore, OTAQ applied a scalar adjustment (of 1.41) to each individual biodiesel plant to match the 2017 production target of 1.45 Bgal.  Once facility-level production capacities were scaled, emission factors were applied based on an assumed natural gas combustion process.  Inventories were modeled as point sources with Google Earth and web searching validating facility coordinates and correcting state-county FIPS.  Table 4-4 provides the 2017 biodiesel plant emissions estimates.

                  Table 4-4.  2017 biodiesel plant emissions
Pollutant
                                                                           Tons
Acrolein
                                                                       3.09E-04
Formaldehyde
                                                                       2.23E-03
Benzene
                                                                       4.71E-05
Acetaldehyde
                                                                       3.59E-04
CO
                                                                            726
NOX
                                                                          1,171
PM10
                                                                             99
PM2.5
                                                                             99
SO2
                                                                              9
VOC
                                                                             64
Portable fuel containers (nonpt)
OTAQ provided year 2017 PFC emissions that include estimated Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP) and oxygenate impacts on VOC emissions, and more importantly, large increases in ethanol emissions from RFS2.  These emission estimates also include refueling from the NONROAD model for gas can vapor displacement, changes in tank permeation and diurnal emissions from evaporation.  Because these PFC inventories contain ethanol, we developed a VOC E-profile that integrated ethanol, see Section 3 for more details.  Emissions for 2017 are provided in Table 4-5.
                      Table 4-5.  PFC emissions for 2017
Pollutant
                                                                           Tons
VOC
                                                                        123,186
Benzene
                                                                          1,368
Ethanol
                                                                         11,565
Cellulosic fuel production (nonpt)
OTAQ developed county-level inventories for cellulosic diesel and cellulosic ethanol production for 2017 to satisfy RFS2 production.  The methodology for building cellulosic plant emissions inventories is fairly similar conceptually to that for building the biodiesel plant inventories.  First, we assume that cellulosic diesel and cellulosic ethanol are produced in the same counties where current production capacity exists, based on RFS2 FRM inventories.  Total county production capacities was over 16 Bgal; therefore, OTAQ applied a scalar adjustment (of 0.246) to each counties production capacity to match the 2017 production target of 3.93 Bgal (2.2 Bgal diesel and 1.69Bgal ethanol).  Once county-level cellulosic production capacities were scaled down to match the 2017 target, emission factors were applied based on an assumed natural gas combustion process.  Table 4-6 provides the year 2017 cellulosic plant emissions estimates.

                  Table 4-6.  2017 cellulosic plant emissions
Pollutant
                                                                           Tons
Acrolein
                                                                             21
Formaldehyde
                                                                             58
Benzene
                                                                             27
Acetaldehyde
                                                                            786
CO
                                                                         42,839
Ethanol
                                                                          1,875
NH3
                                                                            0.5
NOX
                                                                         64,062
PM10
                                                                          7,533
PM2.5
                                                                          3,796
SO2
                                                                          4,973
VOC
                                                                          5,336
We had no refined information on potential VOC speciation differences between cellulosic diesel and cellulosic ethanol sources.  Therefore, we summed up cellulosic diesel and cellulosic ethanol sources and used the same SCC (30125010: Industrial Chemical Manufacturing, Ethanol by Fermentation production) for VOC speciation as was used for corn ethanol plants.  However, these cellulosic inventories contain ethanol; therefore we developed a VOC E-profile that integrated ethanol, see Section 3 for more details.
Ethanol transport and distribution (nonpt)
OTAQ developed county-level inventories for ethanol transport and distribution for 2017 to account for losses for the processes such as truck, rail and waterways loading/unloading and intermodal transfers such as highway-to-rail, highways-to-waterways, and all other possible combinations of transfers.  Emission rates were applied based on June 2008 AP-42 factors and ethanol versus gasoline vapor mass equations.  These emissions are entirely evaporative and therefore limited to VOC and are summarized in Table 4-7.  The leading descriptions are "Industrial Processes; Food and Agriculture; Ethanol Production" for each SCC.
 Table 4-7.  VOC losses (Emissions) due to ethanol transport and distribution
SCC
Description
                                     Tons
                                                                       30205031
Denatured Ethanol Storage Working Loss
                                                                         27,763
                                                                       30205052
Ethanol Loadout to Truck
                                                                         19,069
                                                                       30205053
Ethanol Loadout to Railcar
                                                                          9,610
Onroad refueling (nonpt)
As discussed in Section 2.5.2, the refueling inventory includes gasoline and diesel fuel emissions from spillage loss and displacement vapor loss.  For this analysis, the refueling emissions were estimated using the revised version of EPA's Motor Vehicle Emissions Simulator (MOVES2010a) at the county level for all twelve months.  The same set of representative counties and temperatures were used for all MATS scenarios.  VMT, fleet age distribution and speed distribution were developed for 2017.  Because these refueling inventories contain ethanol, we developed a VOC E-profile that integrated ethanol, see Section 3 for more details.  A summary of the 2017 onroad mobile refueling emissions is provided in Table 4-8.

          Table 4-8.  Onroad gasoline and diesel refueling emissions
Fuel Type
Pollutant
                                                                           Tons
Gasoline
VOC
                                                                         63,759
Diesel
VOC
                                                                         12,962
Gasoline
Benzene
                                                                            161
Gasoline
Ethanol
                                                                          8,735
Refinery adjustments (ptnonipm)
Refinery emissions were adjusted for changes in fuels due to the RFS2 mandate.  These adjustments were provided by OTAQ and impact processes such as process heaters, catalytic cracking units, blowdown systems, wastewater treatment, condensers, cooling towers, flares and fugitive emissions.  The impact of the RFS2-based reductions is shown in Table 4-9.
         Table 4-9.  Impact of refinery adjustments on 2017 emissions
Pollutant
Reductions (tons)
CO
                                                                         12,674
NOX
                                                                         20,183
PM10
                                                                          4,367
PM2.5
                                                                          2,525
SO2
                                                                         13,846
VOC
                                                                          3,693
Ethanol transport gasoline and blends (ptnonipm, nonpt)
Emissions changes in the transport of changing fuels from the RFS2 mandate impact several processes including bulk plant storage (BPS), refinery to bulk terminal (RBT) and bulk terminal to pump (BTP).  These impacts, provided by OTAQ, result in approximately 15,000 tons of VOC reductions in 2017 for these processes.
Upstream agricultural adjustments (afdust, ag, nonpt, ptnonipm)
Changes in domestic biofuel volumes, resulting from the RFS2 fuels mandate, impact upstream agricultural-related source categories in several emissions modeling sectors.  These source categories include fertilizer application, pesticide application and livestock waste (NH3 only), agricultural tilling, unloading and livestock dust (PM only) and fertilizer production mixing and blending, pesticide production and agricultural burning (all pollutants).  As seen in Table 4-10, the cumulative impact of these source-specific changes is a net increase in emissions for upstream agricultural sources.
Table 4-10.  Upstream agricultural emission increases due to RFS2 fuels in 2017
Pollutant
Increases (tons)
CO
                                                                            302
NH3
                                                                         45,272
NOX
                                                                            363
PM10
                                                                         42,934
PM2.5
                                                                          6,500
SO2
                                                                             69
VOC
                                                                             16
Livestock emissions growth (ag, afdust)
Growth in ammonia (NH3) and dust (PM10 and PM2.5) emissions from livestock in the ag, afdust and ptnonipm sectors was based on projections of growth in animal population.  Table 4-11 provides the growth factors from the 2005 base-case emissions to all MATS year 2017 scenarios for animal categories applied to the ag, afdust, and ptnonipm sectors for livestock-related SCCs.

Except for dairy cows and turkey production, the animal projection factors are derived from national-level animal population projections from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the Food and Agriculture Policy and Research Institute (FAPRI).  For dairy cows and turkeys, we assumed that there would be no growth in emissions.  This assumption was based on an analysis of historical trends in the number of such animals compared to production rates.  Although productions rates have increased, the number of animals has declined.  Thus, we do not believe that production forecasts provide representative estimates of the future number of cows and turkeys; therefore, we did not use these forecasts for estimating future-year emissions from these animals.  In particular, the dairy cow population is projected to decrease in the future as it has for the past few decades; however, milk production will be increasing over the same period.  Note that the ammonia emissions from dairies are not directly related to animal population but also nitrogen excretion.  With the cow numbers going down and the production going up we suspect the excretion value will be changing, but we assumed no change because we did not have a quantitative estimate.

The inventory for livestock emissions used 2002 emissions values therefore, our projection method projected from 2002 rather than from 2005.

Appendix E in the 2002v3 platform documentation provides the animal population data and regression curves used to derive the growth factors:  http://www.epa.gov/scram001/reports/Emissions%20TSD%20Vol2_Appendices_01-15-08.pdf.  Appendix F in the same document provides the cross references of livestock sources in the ag, afdust and ptnonipm sectors to the animal categories in Table 4-11.
   Table 4-11.  Growth factors from year 2005 to 2017 for animal operations
Animal Category
Projection Factor
Dairy Cow
1.0000
Beef
1.0206
Pork
1.0893
Broilers
1.3442
Turkeys
1.0000
Layers
1.2406
Poultry Average
1.2674
Overall Average
1.0935
Residential wood combustion growth (nonpt)
We projected residential wood combustion (RWC) emissions based on the expected increase in the number of low-emitting wood stoves and the corresponding decrease in other types of wood stoves.  As newer, cleaner woodstoves replace older, higher-polluting wood stoves, there will be an overall reduction of the emissions from these sources.  The approach cited here was developed as part of a modeling exercise to estimate the expected benefits of the woodstoves change-out program (http://www.epa.gov/burnwise).  Details of this approach can be found in Section 2.3.3 of the PM NAAQS Regulatory Impact Analysis (EPA, 2006).

The specific assumptions we made were:
   # Fireplaces, source category code (SCC)=2104008001: increase 1%/year
   # Old woodstoves, SCC=2104008002, 2104008010, or 2104008051: decrease 2%/year
   # New woodstoves, SCC=2104008003, 2104008004, 2104008030, 2104008050, 2104008052 or 2104008053: increase 2%/year
For the general woodstoves and fireplaces category (SCC 2104008000) we computed a weighted average distribution based on 19.4% fireplaces, 71.6% old woodstoves, 9.1% new woodstoves using 2002v3 Platform missions for PM2.5.  These fractions are based on the fraction of emissions from these processes in the states that did not have the "general woodstoves and fireplaces" SCC in the 2002v3 NEI.  This approach results in an overall decrease of 1.056% per year for this source category.  

We discovered an interpolation error in the year 2017 projection factors for RWC after air quality modeling.  Table 4-12 presents the projection factors used to project the 2005 base case (2002 emissions) for RWC, including these 2017 errors.  Table 4-13shows the national impact (tons) of the 2017 projection factor error.
Table 4-12.  Projection factors for growing year 2005 residential wood combustion sources
SCC
SCC Description
                             Erroneous 2017 Factor
                              Correct 2017 Factor
2104008000
Total: Woodstoves and Fireplaces
                                     0.45
                                     0.84
2104008001
Fireplaces: General
                                     0.65
                                     1.15
2104008070
Outdoor Wood Burning Equipment
                                       
                                       
2104008002
Fireplaces: Insert; non-EPA certified
                                     0.36
                                     0.70
2104008010
Woodstoves: General
                                       
                                       
2104008051
Non-catalytic Woodstoves: Non-EPA certified
                                       
                                       
2104008003
Fireplaces: Insert; EPA certified; non-catalytic
                                     0.74
                                     1.30
2104008004
Fireplaces: Insert; EPA certified; catalytic

2104008030
Catalytic Woodstoves: General

2104008050
Non-catalytic Woodstoves: EPA certified

2104008052
Non-catalytic Woodstoves: Low Emitting

2104008053
Non-catalytic Woodstoves: Pellet Fired

Table 4-13.  Impact of year 2017 projection factor error on residential wood combustion estimates
Pollutant
2005 Emissions
Erroneous 2017 Emissions
Erroneous 2017 Reductions
Correct 2017 Emissions
Correct 2017 Reductions
NOX
                                                                         38,292
                                                                         18,023
                                                                         20,270
                                                                         33,545
                                                                          4,747
PM2.5
                                                                        381,362
                                                                        174,769
                                                                        206,593
                                                                        326,706
                                                                         54,656
SO2
                                                                          5,302
                                                                          2,529
                                                                          2,773
                                                                          4,697
                                                                            605
VOC
                                                                        569,950
                                                                        242,126
                                                                        327,824
                                                                        450,990
                                                                        118,959
Aircraft growth (ptnonipm)
These 2005 point-source emissions are projected to future years by applying activity growth using data on itinerant (ITN) operations at airports.  The ITN operations are defined as aircraft take-offs whereby the aircraft leaves the airport vicinity and lands at another airport, or aircraft landings whereby the aircraft has arrived from outside the airport vicinity.  We used projected ITN information available from the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) System: http://www.apo.data.faa.gov/main/taf.asp (publication date January 2010).  This information is available for approximately 3,300 individual airports, for all years up to 2030.  We aggregated and applied this information at the national level by summing the airport-specific (U.S. airports only) ITN operations to national totals by year and by aircraft operation, for each of the four available operation types: commercial, general, air taxi and military.  We computed growth factors for each operation type by dividing future-year ITN by 2005-year ITN.  We assigned factors to inventory SCCs based on the operation type.  

The methods that the FAA used for developing the ITN data in the TAF are documented in:
http://www.faa.gov/data_research/aviation/aerospace_forecasts/2009-2025/media/2009%20Forecast%20Doc.pdf

Table 4-14 provides the national growth factors for aircraft; all factors are applied to year 2005 emissions.  For example, year 2017 commercial aircraft emissions are 12.88% higher than year 2005 emissions.  The same aircraft factors were used for each of the year-specific scenarios:  low-ethanol, reference and control.
Table 4-14.  Factors used to project 2005 base-case aircraft emissions to 2017
SCC
SCC Description
                                                              Projection Factor
2275001000
Military aircraft
                                                                         1.0229
2275020000
Commercial aircraft
                                                                         1.1288
2275050000
General aviation
                                                                         0.8918
2275060000
Air taxi
                                                                         0.8620
27501015
Internal Combustion Engines;Fixed Wing Aircraft L & TO Exhaust;Military;Jet Engine: JP-5
                                                                         1.0229
27502001
Internal Combustion Engines;Fixed Wing Aircraft L & TO Exhaust;Commercial;Piston Engine: Aviation Gas
                                                                         1.1288
27502011
Internal Combustion Engines;Fixed Wing Aircraft L & TO Exhaust;Commercial;Jet Engine: Jet A
                                                                         1.1288
27505001
Internal Combustion Engines;Fixed Wing Aircraft L & TO Exhaust;Civil;Piston Engine: Aviation Gas
                                                                         0.8918
27505011
Internal Combustion Engines;Fixed Wing Aircraft L & TO Exhaust;Civil;Jet Engine: Jet A
                                                                         0.8918
27601014
Internal Combustion Engines;Rotary Wing Aircraft L & TO Exhaust;Military;Jet Engine: JP-4
                                                                         1.0229
27601015
Internal Combustion Engines;Rotary Wing Aircraft L & TO Exhaust;Military;Jet Engine: JP-5
                                                                         1.0229
We did not apply growth factors to any point sources with SCC 27602011 (Internal Combustion Engines; Rotary Wing Aircraft L & TO Exhaust; Commercial; Jet Engine: Jet A) because the facility names associated with these point sources appeared to represent industrial facilities rather than airports.  This SCC is only in one county, Santa Barbara, California (State/County FIPS 06083).

None of our aircraft emission projections account for any control programs.  We considered the NOX standard adopted by the International Civil Aviation Organization's (ICAO) Committee on Aviation Environmental Protection (CAEP) in February 2004, which is expected to reduce NOX by approximately 2% in 2015 and 3% in 2020.  However, this rule, signed July 2011 (see http://www.epa.gov/otaq/aviation.htm), was not adopted as an EPA (or U.S.) rule prior to MATS modeling; therefore, the effects of this rule were not included in the future-year emissions projections.
Stationary source control programs, consent decrees & settlements, and plant closures (ptnonipm, nonpt)
We applied emissions reduction factors to the 2005 emissions for particular sources in the ptnonipm and nonpt sectors to reflect the impact of stationary-source control programs including consent decrees, settlements, and plant closures.  Some of the controls described in this section were obtained from comments on the CSAPR proposal.  Detailed summaries of the impacts of the control programs are provided in Appendix D of the CSAPR TSD: ftp://ftp.epa.gov/EmisInventory/2005v4_2/transportrulefinal_eitsd_appendices_28jun2011.pdf.

Controls from the NOX SIP call were assumed to have been implemented by 2005 and captured in the 2005 base case (2005v2 point inventory).  This assumption was confirmed by review of the 2005 NEI that showed reductions from Large Boiler/Turbines and Large Internal Combustion Engines in the Northeast states covered by the NOX SIP call.  The future-year base controls consist of the following:
   * We did not include MACT rules where compliance dates were prior to 2005, because we assumed these were already reflected in the 2005 inventory.  The EPA OAQPS Sector Policies and Programs Division (SPPD) provided all controls information related to the MACT rules, and this information is as consistent as possible with the preamble emissions reduction percentages for these rules.
   * Various emissions reductions from the CSAPR comments, including but not limited to: fuel switching at units, shutdowns, future-year emission limits, ozone SIP VOC controls for some sources in Virginia and Connecticut, and state and local control programs.
   * Evolutionary information gathering of plant closures (i.e., emissions were zeroed out for future years) were also included where information indicated that the plant was actually closed after the 2005 base year and prior to CSAPR and MATS modeling that began in the spring of 2011.  We also applied unit and plant closures received from the CSAPR comments.  However, plants projected to close in the future (post-2010) were not removed in the future years because these projections can be inaccurate due to economic improvements.  We also applied cement kiln (unit) and cement plant closures discussed later in Section 4.2.6.1.  More detailed information on the overall state-level impacts of all control programs and projection datasets, including units and plants closed in the 2017 reference case ptnonipm inventories are provided in Appendix D of the Final CSAPR TSD: ftp://ftp.epa.gov/EmisInventory/2005v4_2/transportrulefinal_eitsd_appendices_28jun2011.pdf.  The magnitude of all unit and plant closures on the non-EGU point (ptnonipm) sector 2005 base-case emissions is shown in Table 4-15 below.  These same reductions are seen in all MATS future year scenarios.
Table 4-15.  Summary of non-EGU emission reductions applied to the 2005 inventory due to unit and plant closures
                                       
                                      CO
                                      NH3
                                      NOX
                                     PM10
                                     PM2.5
                                      SO2
                                      VOC
Reductions
                                                                        125,162
                                                                            636
                                                                        109,237
                                                                         21,143
                                                                         12,600
                                                                        190,734
                                                                         26,750
   * In addition to plant closures, we included the effects of the Department of Justice Settlements and Consent Decrees on the non-EGU (ptnonipm) sector emissions.  We also included estimated impacts of HAP standards per Section 112, 129 of the Clean Air Act on the non-EGU (ptnonipm) and nonpoint (nonpt) sector emissions, based on expected CAP co-benefits to sources in these sectors.
   * Numerous controls have compliance dates beyond 2008; these include refinery and the Office of Compliance and Enforcement (OECA) consent decrees, Department of Justice (DOJ) settlements, as well as most national VOC MACT controls.  Additional OECA consent decree information is provided in Appendix B of the Proposed Toxics Rule TSD:  http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/emch/toxics/proposed_toxics_rule_appendices.pdf.  The detailed data used are available at the website listed in Section 1.
   * Refinery consent decrees controls at the facility and SCC level (collected through internal coordination on refineries by the EPA).
   * Fuel sulfur fuel limits were enforceable for Maine, New Jersey and New York.
   * Criteria air pollutant (cap) reductions a cobenefit to RICE NESHAP controls, including SO2 RICE cobenefit controls.
   * We applied New York State Implementation Plan available controls for the 1997 8-hour Ozone standard for non-EGU point and nonpoint NOX and VOC sources based on NY State Department of Environmental Conservation February 2008 guidance.  These reductions are found in Appendix J in:  http://www.dec.ny.gov/docs/air_pdf/NYMASIP7final.pdf.  See Section 3.2.6 in the CSAPR TSD: ftp://ftp.epa.gov/EmisInventory/2005v4_2/transportrulefinal_eitsd_28jun2011.pdf.
Most of the control programs were applied as replacement controls, which means that any existing percent reductions ("baseline control efficiency") reported in the NEI were removed prior to the addition of the percent reductions due to these control programs.  Exceptions to replacement controls are "additional" controls, which ensure that the controlled emissions match desired reductions regardless of the baseline control efficiencies in the NEI.  We used the "additional controls" approach for many permit limits, settlements and consent decrees where specific plant and multiple-plant-level reductions/targets were desired and at municipal waste landfills where VOC was reduced 75% via a MACT control using projection factors of 0.25.
Reductions from the Portland Cement NESHAP (ptnonipm)
As indicated in Table 4-1, the Industrial Sectors Integrated Solutions (ISIS) model (EPA, 2010) was used to project the cement industry component of the ptnonipm emissions modeling sector to 2013.  There were no future year estimates for 2017, so 2013 estimates were used for all future year MATS modeling scenarios.  This approach provided reductions of criteria and hazardous air pollutants, including mercury.  The ISIS cement emissions were developed in support for the Portland Cement NESHAPs and the NSPS for the Portland cement manufacturing industry.

The ISIS model produced a Portland Cement NESHAP policy case of multi-pollutant emissions for individual cement kilns (emission inventory units) that were relevant for years 2013 through 2017.  These ISIS-based emissions included information on new cement kilns, facility and unit-level closures, and updated policy case emissions at existing cement kilns.  The units that opened or closed before 2010 were included in the projections as were the ISIS-based policy case predictions of emissions reductions and activity growth.

The ISIS model results for the future show a continuation of the recent trend in the cement sector of the replacement of lower capacity, inefficient wet and long dry kilns with bigger and more efficient preheater and precalciner kilns.  Multiple regulatory requirements such as the NESHAP and NSPS currently apply to the cement industry to reduce CAP and HAP emissions.  Additionally, state and local regulatory requirements might apply to individual cement facilities depending on their locations relative to ozone and PM2.5 nonattainment areas.  The ISIS model provides the emission reduction strategy that balances: 1) optimal (least cost) industry operation, 2) cost-effective controls to meet the demand for cement, and 3) emission reduction requirements over the time period of interest.  Table 4-16 shows the magnitude of the ISIS-based cement industry reductions in the future-year emissions that represent 2013 (and 2017 for MATS), and the impact that these reductions have on total stationary non-EGU point source (ptnonipm) emissions.

Table 4-16.  Future-year ISIS-based cement industry annual reductions (tons/yr) 
for the non-EGU (ptnonipm) sector
                                   Pollutant
                       Cement Industry emissions in 2005
                                    (tons)
                              Reductions in 2017
                                    (tons)
                              Percent Reduction %
NOX
                                                                        193,000
                                                                         56,740
                                                                           2.4%
PM2.5
                                                                         14,400
                                                                          7,840
                                                                           1.8%
SO2
                                                                        128,400
                                                                        106,000
                                                                           5.0%
VOC
                                                                          6,900
                                                                          5,570
                                                                           0.4%
HCl
                                                                          2,900
                                                                          2,220
                                                                           4.5%
Boiler reductions not associated with the MACT rule (ptnonipm)
The Boiler MACT ICR collected data on existing controls.  We used an early version of a data base developed for that rulemaking entitled "survey_database_2008_results2.mdb" (EPA-HQ-OAR-2002-0058-0788) which is posted under the Technical Information for the Boiler MACT major source rule (http://www.epa.gov/ttn/atw/boiler/boilerpg.html).  We extracted all non-EGU stationary (ptnonipm) controls that were installed after 2005, determined a percent reduction, and verified with source owners that these controls were actively in use.  In many situations we learned that the controls were on site but were not in use.  A summary of the plant-unit specific reductions that were verified to be actively in use are summarized in Table 4-17.  All reductions are promulgated by the present day, and therefore these reductions are the same for all MATS future year scenarios.
  Table 4-17.  State-level non-MACT boiler reductions from ICR data gathering
State
                                   Pollutant
                        Pre-controlled Emissions (tons)
                          Controlled Emissions (tons)
                           Reductions in 2017 (tons)
                              Percent Reduction %
Michigan
                                      NOX
                                                                            907
                                                                            544
                                                                            363
                                                                             40
North Carolina
                                      SO2
                                                                            652
                                                                             65
                                                                            587
                                                                             90
Virginia
                                      SO2
                                                                           3379
                                                                            338
                                                                           3041
                                                                             90
Washington
                                      SO2
                                                                            639
                                                                            383
                                                                            256
                                                                             40
North Carolina
                                      HCl
                                                                             31
                                                                              3
                                                                             28
                                                                             90
RICE NESHAP (ptnonipm and nonpt)
There are three rulemakings for National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants (NESHAP) for Reciprocating Internal Combustion Engines (RICE).  These rules reduce HAPs from existing and new RICE sources.  In order to meet the standards, existing sources with certain types of engines will need to install controls.  In addition to reducing HAPs, these controls also reduce CAPs, specifically, CO, NOX, VOC, PM, and SO2.  In 2014 and beyond, compliance dates have passed for all three rules; thus all three rules are included in the 2017 reference case emissions projection. 

The rules can be found at http://www.epa.gov/ttn/atw/rice/ricepg.html and are listed below:
   * National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants for Reciprocating Internal Combustion Engines; Final Rule (69 FR 33473) published 06/15/04
   * National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants for Reciprocating Internal Combustion Engines; Final Rule (FR 9648 ) published 03/03/10
   * National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants for Reciprocating Internal Combustion Engines; Final Rule (75 FR 51570) published 08/20/2010
The difference among these three rules is that they focus on different types of engines, different facility types (major for HAPs, versus area for HAPs) and different engine sizes based on horsepower (HP).  In addition, they have different compliance dates.  We project CAPs from the 2005 NEI RICE sources, based on the requirements of the rule for existing sources only because the inventory includes only existing sources and the current projection approach does not estimate emissions from new sources.

A complete discussion on the methodology to estimate RICE controls is provided in Appendix F in the Proposed MATS Rule TSD:  http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/emch/toxics/proposed_toxics_rule_appendices.pdf.  Impacts of the RICE controls on stationary non-EGU emissions (nonpt and ptnonipm sectors), excluding WRAP, Texas, and Oklahoma oil and gas emissions (see Section 4.2.7) are provided in Table 4-18.  These reductions are promulgated before year 2017, and therefore these reductions are the same for all MATS future year scenarios.
     Table 4-18.  National impact of RICE controls on non-EGU projections

                                      CO
                                      NOX
                                     PM10
                                     PM2.5
                                      SO2
                                      VOC
Reductions
                                    116,434
                                    111,749
                                     1,595
                                     1,368
                                    21,957
                                    14,669
Fuel sulfur rules (ptnonipm and nonpt)
Fuel sulfur rules that were signed (enforceable) at the time of the emissions processing are limited to Maine, New Jersey and New York.  Several other states have fuel sulfur rules that were in development but not finalized prior to the final CSAPR and proposed MATS emissions processing:  http://www.ilta.org/LegislativeandRegulatory/MVNRLM/NEUSASulfur%20Rules_09.2010.pdf.  

The fuel sulfur content for all home heating oil SCCs in 2005 is assumed to by 3000 part per million (ppm).  Effective July 1, 2012, New York requires all heating oil sold in New York to contain no more than 15ppm of sulfur, thus reducing SO2 emissions by 99.5% for post-2012 projections.  These New York sulfur content reductions are further discussed here:
http://switchboard.nrdc.org/blogs/rkassel/governor_paterson_signs_new_la.html.

The New Jersey year 2017 standard of 15ppm (assuming 500ppm baseline for Kerosene) sulfur content yields a 96.25% SO2 emissions reduction for kerosene (fuel #1).  The New Jersey sulfur content reductions are discussed here:  http://njtoday.net/2010/09/01/nj-adopts-rule-limiting-sulfur-content-in-fuel-oil/.

For MATS year 2017 projections, the Maine fuel sulfur rule, effective in year 2016, reduces sulfur to50 ppm from 3,000 ppm in 2005, resulting in a 98.3% reduction for the 2017 scenario.  The impact of these fuel sulfur content reductions on SO2 is shown in Table 4-19.  These year-specific reductions are the same for all MATS scenarios:  low-ethanol, reference and control.
 Table 4-19.  Impact of fuel sulfur (SO2) controls on 2017 non-EGU projections
State
                               Reductions (tons)
Maine
                                                                          8,323
New Jersey
                                                                            998
New York
                                                                         54,431
Total
                                                                         63,751
Oil and gas projections in TX, OK, and non-California WRAP states (nonpt)
For the 2005v4.2 platform, we incorporated updated 2005 oil and gas emissions from Texas and Oklahoma.  For Texas oil and gas production, we used year 2017 estimates from the Texas Commission of Environmental Quality (TCEQ) and used them as described in:  http://www.tceq.state.tx.us/assets/public/implementation/air/am/contracts/reports/ei/5820783985FY0901-20090715-ergi-Drilling_Rig_EI.pdf.

We also received 2008 data for Oklahoma that we used as the best available data to represent 2017.  We utilized the latest available future year, year 2018, Phase II WRAP oil and gas emissions data for the non-California Western Regional Air Partnership (WRAP) states to represent 2017.  RICE NESHAP reductions, discussed earlier in this section, which are effective by year 2014, were applied to the year 2008 Oklahoma oil and gas inventory but not applied to the 2017 TCEQ oil and gas estimates or 2018 WRAP Phase II oil and gas inventory.

For Oklahoma, we applied CO, NOX, SO2 and VOC emissions reductions from the RICE NESHAP, which we assumed has some applicability to this industry (see Appendix F in the Proposed Toxics Rule TSD:  http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/emch/toxics/proposed_toxics_rule_appendices.pdf).  All these year-specific oil and gas projection estimates are the same for all MATS scenarios:  low-ethanol, reference and control.  Table 4-20 shows the 2005 and 2017 NOX and SO2 emissions including RICE reductions for Oklahoma.
Table 4-20.  Oil and gas NOX and SO2 emissions for 2005 and 2017 including additional reductions due to the RICE NESHAP

                                      NOX
                                     PM2.5
                                      SO2
                                      VOC

                                                                           2005
                                                                           2017
                                                                           2005
                                                                           2017
                                                                           2005
                                                                           2017
                                                                           2005
                                                                           2017
Alaska
                                                                            836
                                                                            453
                                                                              
                                                                               
                                                                             62
                                                                              1
                                                                             68
                                                                             12
Arizona
                                                                             13
                                                                             15
                                                                              
                                                                               
                                                                              
                                                                              
                                                                             37
                                                                             49
Colorado
                                                                         32,188
                                                                         33,517
                                                                              
                                                                               
                                                                            350
                                                                             11
                                                                         35,500
                                                                         43,639
Montana
                                                                         10,617
                                                                         13,880
                                                                              
                                                                               
                                                                            640
                                                                              6
                                                                          9,187
                                                                         14,110
Nevada
                                                                             71
                                                                             63
                                                                              
                                                                               
                                                                              1
                                                                              0
                                                                            105
                                                                            163
New Mexico
                                                                         61,674
                                                                         74,648
                                                                              
                                                                               
                                                                            369
                                                                             12
                                                                        215,636
                                                                        267,846
North Dakota
                                                                          6,040
                                                                         20,869
                                                                              
                                                                               
                                                                            688
                                                                              4
                                                                          8,988
                                                                         17,968
Oklahoma
                                                                         39,668
                                                                         42,402
                                                                          1,918
                                                                          2,231
                                                                          1,014
                                                                              2
                                                                        155,908
                                                                        163,598
Oregon
                                                                             61
                                                                             44
                                                                              
                                                                               
                                                                              
                                                                              
                                                                             19
                                                                             14
South Dakota
                                                                            566
                                                                            557
                                                                              
                                                                               
                                                                             43
                                                                              0
                                                                            370
                                                                            562
Texas
                                                                         42,854
                                                                         34,772
                                                                          2,945
                                                                          1,085
                                                                          5,977
                                                                             36
                                                                          4,337
                                                                          2,800
Utah
                                                                          6,896
                                                                          6,297
                                                                              
                                                                               
                                                                            149
                                                                              1
                                                                         43,403
                                                                         81,890
Wyoming
                                                                         36,172
                                                                         34,142
                                                                              
                                                                               
                                                                            541
                                                                              3
                                                                        166,939
                                                                        304,748
Total
                                                                        237,656
                                                                        261,659
                                                                          4,862
                                                                          3,316
                                                                          9,834
                                                                             76
                                                                        640,498
                                                                        897,400
Onroad mobile source projections (onroad)
The same version of MOVES and SMOKE-MOVES Integration Tool was used to create all MATS onroad emission scenarios.  Section 2.2 describes these components in support of year 2005 processing.  This section will only address the differences related to creating and processing year 2017 reference case emissions.  Speciation changes for all scenarios are discussed in Section 3.

Inputs for temperatures (Section 2.2.1), the representative counties and fuel months (Section 2.2.2), the overall parallel processing procedures (Section 2.2.3), speed data (Section 2.2.4), and SMOKE-MOVES configurations (Section 2.2.4) were previously discussed and were the same for all MATS scenarios.  However, year-specific MOVES inputs were obtained for fuels and California LEV standards, and SMOKE inputs of VMT and vehicle populations were year-specific and are described below.

For the 2017 VMT inventory, MOVES2010a was run with default inputs to generate total national VMT by SCC.  But, because MOVES uses a static (1999) default allocation of VMT to county, MOVES was not used for these allocations.  Instead, the 2017 county VMT was created by interpolating between the NCD VMT values for 2015 and those for 2020 and computing the NCD fraction for each county, then multiplying these fractions by the MOVES VMT.  The VMT was also adjusted to account for increased onroad transportation of ethanol fuels and the resulting increase in travel by large tanker trucks.

Vehicle populations by county and SCC were developed similarly to the VMT, using MOVES to generate national totals for each year and using the NCD to allocate to county.  However, the NCD does not include population estimates, so we used MOVES to generate the 2005 national population and we assumed that, for each calendar year (2005 and 2017) and for each SCC, the allocation of  national vehicle population to county was proportional to the allocation of VMT (summed across road types).

The MOVES 2017 emissions used for MATS reflect onroad mobile control programs including the Light-Duty Vehicle Tier 2 Rule and the Mobile Source Air Toxics (MSAT2) final rule.  
California LEV
The list of States which have implemented programs to require the sale of vehicles in their state certified for sale in California began with the information stored in the modeling inputs used for the 2008 National Emission Inventory (NEI) stored in the National Mobile Inventory Model (NMIM) County database.  This information was reviewed and updated by states during the process of developing the national inventory for calendar year 2008.  This information was supplemented with information from a "Dear Manufacturer" letter, "Sales of California-certified 2008-2010 Model Year Vehicles (Cross-Border Sales Policy)" (October 29,2007) produced by the Compliance and Innovative Strategies Division of the US Environmental Protection Agency which describes the areas that have recently implemented a California standards program.  This information was used to generate emission rate table inputs for the MOVES model for each of these areas using the guidance provided in the document, "Instructions for Using LEV and NLEV Inputs for MOVES" (EPA-420-B-10-003, January 2010) provided to States with the MOVES model.  For calendar year 2017, areas that had implemented California standards would still have these programs in place in calendar year 2017.  More information on the states that have implemented California LEV standards can be found at: 
http://www.dieselnet.com/standards/us/#cal.
Nonroad mobile source projections (nonroad, alm_no_c3, seca_c3)
The components of the nonroad mobile sectors are discussed in Section 2.3.  Nonroad mobile emissions reductions for MATS include year-specific regulations affecting locomotives, various nonroad engines including diesel engines and various marine engine types, fuel sulfur content, and evaporative emissions. This section discusses the changes due to the NONROAD/NMIM system (nonroad sector) and additional C1/C2 CMV and locomotive emissions from volume increases resulting from incorporation of larger amounts in renewable fuels in the 2017 reference case.
Emissions generated with the NONROAD model (nonroad)
As discussed in Section 2.3.1, most nonroad emissions are were estimated using the EPA's NONROAD model, as run by the EPA's consolidated modeling system known as the National Mobile Inventory Model (NMIM).  NONROAD is EPA's model for calculating emissions from nonroad equipment, except for aircraft, locomotives, and commercial marine vessels.  Like the onroad emissions, the NONROAD/NMIM system provides nonroad emissions for VOC by three emission modes: exhaust, evaporative and refueling.  Unlike the onroad sector, nonroad refueling emissions for nonroad sources are not included in the nonpoint (nonpt) sector and so are retained in this sector.

The same temperatures and representative counties were used for all NONROAD model-generated MATS scenarios.  For 2017, E10 and E15 are available in every county, but nonroad equipment is assumed to burn only E10.  To generate the NMIM fuels, the E10 fuel was copied from MOVES to NMIM, and the E10 oxygenate was assigned a market share of 1.  Highway diesel fuel sulfur levels are copied directly from MOVES to NMIM.  Nonroad diesel fuel sulfur levels are retained from NMIM.

Section 2.3.1.3 provides a cross-walk of the nonroad mobile NMIM emission scenarios used in MATS; as previously discussed, the only difference between these scenarios are the increases in activity (based on NONROAD model default growth estimates of future-year equipment population) and changes in fuels and engines that reflect implementation of national regulations and local control programs that impact each year differently due to engine turnover.  For year 2017, EPA assumed that nonroad equipment would use only E10.  Although the NONROAD Model estimates changes in VOC production from E15, NMIM calculates toxics as if the fuel were E10. Emission estimates for ethanol come from speciation of VOC in the SMOKE model.  These ethanol adjustments for nonroad engines running on E15 came from the EPAct Phase 1 data.

We have not included voluntary programs in our projections such as programs encouraging either no refueling or evening refueling on Ozone Action Days and diesel retrofit programs.  The national regulations incorporated in all MATS future year scenarios are those promulgated prior to December 2009, and beginning about 1990.  Recent rules include:
   * "Clean Air Nonroad Diesel Final Rule - Tier 4": (http://www.epa.gov/nonroaddiesel/2004fr.htm ), published June 29, 2004, and,
   * Control of Emissions from Nonroad Large Spark-Ignition Engines, and Recreational Engines (Marine and Land-Based), November 8, 2002 ("Pentathalon Rule").
   * OTAQ's Locomotive Marine Rule, March 2008: (http://www.epa.gov/otaq/regs/nonroad/420f08004.htm)
   * OTAQ's Small Engine Spark Ignition ("Bond") Rule, November 2008: (http://www.epa.gov/otaq/equip-ld.htm)
All future year nonroad emissions used NMIM data that are based on AEO2009 fuels and the same NMIM county database NCD20101201Tier3.  We converted emissions from monthly totals to monthly average-day values based the on number of days in each month.  Only criteria and select HAPs (benzene, acetaldehyde, butadiene, acrolein, and formaldehyde) were retained when creating SMOKE one record per line (ORL) files.
Locomotives and Class 1 & 2 commercial marine vessels (alm_no_c3)
Aircraft emissions reside in the nonEGU point inventory (ptnonipm), and the projection factors used to create year 2017 estimates, are discussed in Section 4.2.  The remaining 2005 NEI emissions for locomotives and Class 1 and Class 2 commercial marine vessel (C1/C2 CMV) use year-specific projection estimates.  Base future year locomotive and C1/C2 CMV emissions were calculated using projection factors that were computed based on national, annual summaries of emissions in 2002 and 2017. Some additional emissions were then factored in due to changes in fuels.  These national summaries were used to create national by-pollutant, by-SCC projection factors; these factors include final locomotive-marine controls and are provided in Table 4-21.  Modest additive Class I railroad and C1/C2 CMV emissions that account for RFS2 volume increases in the MATS reference scenario were then added into the reference case due to the volume differences in corn, cellulosic and imported ethanol and cellulosic diesel fuels.  These additional emissions are summarized in Table 4-22. 
Table 4-21.  Factors applied to year 2005 emissions to project locomotives and class 1 and class 2 commercial marine vessel emissions to 2017
SCC
SCC Description
                                   Pollutant
                                                              Projection Factor
2280002X00
Marine Vessels, Commercial;Diesel;Underway & port emissions
                                      CO
                                                                          0.938
2280002X00
Marine Vessels, Commercial;Diesel;Underway & port emissions
                                      NH3
                                                                          1.144
2280002X00
Marine Vessels, Commercial;Diesel;Underway & port emissions
                                      NOX
                                                                          0.700
2280002X00
Marine Vessels, Commercial;Diesel;Underway & port emissions
                                     PM10
                                                                          0.642
2280002X00
Marine Vessels, Commercial;Diesel;Underway & port emissions
                                     PM2.5
                                                                          0.653
2280002X00
Marine Vessels, Commercial;Diesel;Underway & port emissions
                                      SO2
                                                                          0.087
2280002X00
Marine Vessels, Commercial;Diesel;Underway & port emissions
                                      VOC
                                                                          0.786
2285002006
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Class I Operations
                                      CO
                                                                          1.334
2285002006
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Class I Operations
                                      NH3
                                                                          1.325
2285002006
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Class I Operations
                                      NOX
                                                                          0.627
2285002006
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Class I Operations
                                     PM10
                                                                          0.578
2285002006
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Class I Operations
                                     PM2.5
                                                                          0.586
2285002006
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Class I Operations
                                      SO2
                                                                          0.005
2285002006
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Class I Operations
                                      VOC
                                                                          0.589
2285002007
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Class II / III Operations
                                      CO
                                                                          0.328
2285002007
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Class II / III Operations
                                      NH3
                                                                          1.325
2285002007
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Class II / III Operations
                                      NOX
                                                                          0.352
2285002007
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Class II / III Operations
                                     PM10
                                                                          0.286
2285002007
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Class II / III Operations
                                     PM2.5
                                                                          0.288
2285002007
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Class II / III Operations
                                      SO2
                                                                          0.001
2285002007
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Class II / III Operations
                                      VOC
                                                                          0.315
2285002008
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Passenger Trains (Amtrak)
                                      CO
                                                                          1.071
2285002008
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Passenger Trains (Amtrak)
                                      NH3
                                                                          1.325
2285002008
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Passenger Trains (Amtrak)
                                      NOX
                                                                          0.496
2285002008
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Passenger Trains (Amtrak)
                                     PM10
                                                                          0.461
2285002008
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Passenger Trains (Amtrak)
                                     PM2.5
                                                                          0.463
2285002008
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Passenger Trains (Amtrak)
                                      SO2
                                                                          0.005
2285002008
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Passenger Trains (Amtrak)
                                      VOC
                                                                          0.475
2285002009
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Commuter Lines
                                      CO
                                                                          1.057
2285002009
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Commuter Lines
                                      NH3
                                                                          1.325
2285002009
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Commuter Lines
                                      NOX
                                                                          0.489
2285002009
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Commuter Lines
                                     PM10
                                                                          0.455
2285002009
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Commuter Lines
                                     PM2.5
                                                                          0.455
2285002009
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Commuter Lines
                                      SO2
                                                                          0.005
2285002009
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Commuter Lines
                                      VOC
                                                                          0.469
2285002010
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Yard Locomotives
                                      CO
                                                                          1.341
2285002010
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Yard Locomotives
                                      NH3
                                                                          1.325
2285002010
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Yard Locomotives
                                      NOX
                                                                          1.128
2285002010
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Yard Locomotives
                                     PM10
                                                                          0.914
2285002010
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Yard Locomotives
                                     PM2.5
                                                                          0.934
2285002010
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Yard Locomotives
                                      SO2
                                                                          0.006
2285002010
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Yard Locomotives
                                      VOC
                                                                          1.509
                                       

Table 4-22.  Additional class 1 railroad and C1/C2 CMV emissions from RFS2 fuel volume changes
Pollutant
                           2017 Class 1 Rail (tons)
                             2017 C1/C2 CMV (tons)
1,3-Butadiene
                                                                           0.83
                                                                           0.01
Acrolein
                                                                           0.80
                                                                           0.08
Formaldehyde
                                                                          11.12
                                                                           3.21
Benzene
                                                                           0.66
                                                                           0.44
Acetaldehyde
                                                                           4.83
                                                                           1.59
CO
                                                                          1,250
                                                                            197
NH3
                                                                           3.93
                                                                           0.62
NOX
                                                                          5,731
                                                                            890
PM10
                                                                            141
                                                                             29
PM2.5
                                                                            136
                                                                             27
SO2
                                                                           2.96
                                                                           3.96
VOC
                                                                            257
                                                                             21
The future-year locomotive emissions account for increased fuel consumption based on Energy Information Administration (EIA) fuel consumption projections for freight rail, and emissions reductions resulting from emissions standards from the Final Locomotive-Marine rule (EPA, 2009).  This rule lowered diesel sulfur content and tightened emission standards for existing and new locomotives and marine diesel emissions to lower future-year PM, SO2, and NOX, and is documented at: http://www.epa.gov/otaq/regs/nonroad/420f08004.htm.  Voluntary retrofits under the National Clean Diesel Campaign (http://www.epa.gov/otaq/diesel/index.htm) are not included in our projections.

We applied HAP factors for VOC HAPs by using the VOC projection factors to obtain 1,3-butadiene, acetaldehyde, acrolein, benzene, and formaldehyde.

Class 1 and 2 CMV gasoline emissions (SCC = 2280004000) were not changed for future-year processing.  C1/C2 diesel emissions (SCC = 2280002100 and 2280002200) were projected based on the Final Locomotive Marine rule national-level factors provided in Table 4-.  Similar to locomotives, VOC HAPs were projected based on the VOC factor.

Delaware provided updated future-year NOX, SO2, and PM emission estimates for C1/C2 CMV as part of the Transport Rule comments.  These updated emissions were applied to the 2017 inventory and override the C1/C2 projection factors in Table 4-.
Class 3 commercial marine vessels (seca_c3)
The seca_c3 sector emissions data were provided by OTAQ in an ASCII raster format used since the SO2 Emissions Control Area-International Marine Organization (ECA-IMO) project began in 2005.  The (S)ECA Category 3 (C3) commercial marine vessel 2002 base-case emissions were projected to year 2005 for the 2005 base case and to 2017, which includes ECA-IMO controls.  An overview of the ECA-IMO project and future-year goals for reduction of NOX, SO2, and PM C3 emissions can be found at:  http://www.epa.gov/oms/regs/nonroad/marine/ci/420f09015.htm

The resulting coordinated strategy, including emission standards under the Clean Air Act for new marine diesel engines with per-cylinder displacement at or above 30 liters, and the establishment of Emission Control Areas is at:  http://www.epa.gov/oms/oceanvessels.htm

These projection factors vary depending on geographic region and pollutant; where VOC HAPs are assigned the same growth rates as VOC.  The projection factors used to create the 2017 seca_c3 sector emissions are provided in Table 4-23.  Note that these factors are relative to 2002.  Factors relative to 2005 can be computed from the 2002-2005 factors.

The geographic regions are described in the ECA Proposal technical support document: http://www.epa.gov/oms/regs/nonroad/marine/ci/420r09007-chap2.pdf.  These regions extend up to 200 nautical miles offshore, though less at international boundaries.  North and South Pacific regions are divided by the Oregon-Washington border, and East Coast and Gulf Coast regions are divided east-west by roughly the upper Florida Keys just southwest of Miami.

The factors to compute HAP emission are based on emissions ratios discussed in the 2005v4 documentation (ftp://ftp.epa.gov/EmisInventory/2005v4/2005_emissions_tsd_07jul2010.pdf).  As with the 2005 base case, this sector uses CAP-HAP VOC integration.
Table 4-23.  NOX, SO2, and PM2.5 factors to project class 3 CMV emissions for 2017
Region
NOX
SO2
PM2.5
VOC
Alaska East 
                                                                          1.409
                                                                          0.062
                                                                          0.203
                                                                          1.631
Alaska West
                                                                          1.469
                                                                          1.571
                                                                          1.571
                                                                          1.571
East Coast
                                                                          1.435
                                                                          0.070
                                                                          0.264
                                                                          1.955
Gulf Coast
                                                                          1.120
                                                                          0.055
                                                                          0.207
                                                                          1.529
Hawaii East
                                                                          1.539
                                                                          0.078
                                                                          0.268
                                                                          2.036
Hawaii West
                                                                          1.725
                                                                          2.037
                                                                          2.035
                                                                          2.037
North Pacific
                                                                          1.240
                                                                          0.064
                                                                          0.222
                                                                          1.644
South Pacific
                                                                          1.573
                                                                          0.084
                                                                          0.293
                                                                          2.114
Great Lakes
                                                                          1.106
                                                                          0.046
                                                                          0.171
                                                                          1.302
Outside ECA
                                                                          1.585
                                                                          1.891
                                                                          1.891
                                                                          1.891
Canada, Mexico, and offshore sources (othar, othon, and othpt)
Emissions for Canada, Mexico, and offshore sources were not projected to future years, and are therefore the same as those used in the 2005 base case for all MATS scenarios.  Therefore, the Mexico emissions are based on year 1999, offshore oil is based on year 2005, and Canada is based on year 2006.  For both Mexico and Canada, their responsible agencies did not provide future-year emissions that were consistent with the base year emissions.
Reference case emission summaries
Table 4-24 shows a summary of the 2005 and modeled reference case emissions for the lower 48 states.  Table 4-25 and Table 4-26 provide summaries of SO2 and PM2.5 in the 2017 baseline for each sector by state.  Table 4-27shows the future year baseline EGU emissions by state for all criteria air pollutants. 

Table 4-24.  Summary of modeled base case SO2 and PM2.5 annual emissions (tons/year) for 48 states by sector

Source Sector SO2 Emissions
                                         2005
                                          2017

  EGU Point
                                                                     10,380,883
                                                                      3,281,364

  Non-EGU Point
                                                                      2,030,759
                                                                      1,534,991

  Nonpoint
                                                                      1,216,362
                                                                      1,125,985

  Nonroad
                                                                        446,831
                                                                         15,759

  On-road
                                                                        168,480
                                                                         29,288

  Average Fire
                                                                         49,094
                                                                         49,094

  Total SO2, All Sources
                                                                     14,292,410
                                                                      6,036,480

Source Sector PM2.5 Emissions
                                          2005
                                             2017

  EGU Point
                                                                        496,877
                                                                        276,430

  Non-EGU Point
                                                                        433,346
                                                                        411,437

  Nonpoint 
                                                                      2,110,298
                                                                      1,912,757

  Nonroad
                                                                        268,745
                                                                        150,221

  On-road
                                                                        301,073
                                                                        129,416

  Average Fire
                                                                        684,035
                                                                        684,035

     Total PM2.5, All Sources
                                                                      4,294,373
                                                                      3,564,296

  Table 4-25.  Reference case SO2 emissions (tons/year) for states by sector
State
                                      EGU
                                    NonEGU
                                   Nonpoint
                                    Nonroad
                                    Onroad
                                     Fires
                                     Total
Alabama
                                                                        186,084
                                                                         63,053
                                                                         52,341
                                                                            146
                                                                            569
                                                                            983
                                                                        303,177
Arizona
                                                                         36,996
                                                                         24,191
                                                                          2,467
                                                                             59
                                                                            724
                                                                          2,888
                                                                         67,324
Arkansas
                                                                         92,804
                                                                         12,160
                                                                         26,801
                                                                            123
                                                                            314
                                                                            728
                                                                        132,929
California
                                                                          5,346
                                                                         21,046
                                                                         67,846
                                                                          3,311
                                                                          2,087
                                                                          6,735
                                                                        106,370
Colorado
                                                                         74,255
                                                                          1,415
                                                                          6,210
                                                                             50
                                                                            532
                                                                          1,719
                                                                         84,181
Connecticut
                                                                          3,581
                                                                          1,833
                                                                         18,149
                                                                            100
                                                                            311
                                                                              4
                                                                         23,978
Delaware
                                                                          2,835
                                                                          4,770
                                                                          1,018
                                                                            500
                                                                             91
                                                                              6
                                                                          9,220
District of Columbia
                                                                              5
                                                                            686
                                                                          1,505
                                                                              3
                                                                             38
                                                                              0
                                                                          2,237
Florida
                                                                        117,702
                                                                         49,082
                                                                         70,073
                                                                          1,255
                                                                          2,111
                                                                          7,018
                                                                        247,241
Georgia
                                                                         96,712
                                                                         44,248
                                                                         55,946
                                                                            192
                                                                          1,158
                                                                          2,010
                                                                        200,266
Idaho
                                                                            182
                                                                         17,133
                                                                          2,894
                                                                             23
                                                                            162
                                                                          3,845
                                                                         24,240
Illinois
                                                                        118,217
                                                                         81,683
                                                                          5,650
                                                                            295
                                                                          1,107
                                                                             20
                                                                        206,971
Indiana
                                                                        200,969
                                                                         73,930
                                                                         59,771
                                                                            150
                                                                            760
                                                                             24
                                                                        335,604
Iowa
                                                                         85,178
                                                                         22,865
                                                                         19,929
                                                                             86
                                                                            324
                                                                             25
                                                                        128,407
Kansas
                                                                         45,740
                                                                         10,288
                                                                         36,140
                                                                             57
                                                                            294
                                                                            103
                                                                         92,622
Kentucky
                                                                        116,927
                                                                         23,530
                                                                         33,852
                                                                            215
                                                                            463
                                                                            364
                                                                        175,350
Louisiana
                                                                        142,447
                                                                        129,730
                                                                          2,669
                                                                          1,449
                                                                            447
                                                                            892
                                                                        277,634
Maine
                                                                          2,564
                                                                         14,285
                                                                          2,007
                                                                             72
                                                                            149
                                                                            150
                                                                         19,226
Maryland
                                                                         29,786
                                                                         33,562
                                                                         40,642
                                                                            494
                                                                            593
                                                                             32
                                                                        105,110
Massachusetts
                                                                         15,133
                                                                         17,077
                                                                         24,907
                                                                            266
                                                                            565
                                                                             93
                                                                         58,041
Michigan
                                                                        163,168
                                                                         48,697
                                                                         42,185
                                                                            448
                                                                            995
                                                                             91
                                                                        255,584
Minnesota
                                                                         52,380
                                                                         24,742
                                                                         14,635
                                                                            220
                                                                            558
                                                                            631
                                                                         93,164
Mississippi
                                                                         34,865
                                                                         24,284
                                                                          6,635
                                                                            208
                                                                            396
                                                                          1,051
                                                                         67,440
Missouri
                                                                        178,143
                                                                         33,757
                                                                         44,680
                                                                            191
                                                                            722
                                                                            186
                                                                        257,679
Montana
                                                                         24,018
                                                                          7,212
                                                                          1,875
                                                                             25
                                                                            106
                                                                          1,422
                                                                         34,657
Nebraska
                                                                         70,910
                                                                          6,885
                                                                          7,899
                                                                             58
                                                                            202
                                                                            105
                                                                         86,058
Nevada
                                                                         14,140
                                                                          2,132
                                                                         12,028
                                                                             27
                                                                            200
                                                                          1,346
                                                                         29,873
New Hampshire
                                                                          6,719
                                                                          2,471
                                                                          7,284
                                                                             21
                                                                            137
                                                                             38
                                                                         16,671
New Jersey
                                                                          9,042
                                                                          6,700
                                                                          9,528
                                                                            686
                                                                            757
                                                                             61
                                                                         26,774
New Mexico
                                                                         10,211
                                                                          7,813
                                                                          2,719
                                                                             26
                                                                            262
                                                                          3,450
                                                                         24,480
New York
                                                                         14,653
                                                                         45,222
                                                                         71,060
                                                                            659
                                                                          1,466
                                                                            113
                                                                        133,173
North Carolina
                                                                         71,113
                                                                         58,517
                                                                         21,713
                                                                            197
                                                                            890
                                                                            696
                                                                        153,125
North Dakota
                                                                        105,344
                                                                          9,915
                                                                          5,559
                                                                             36
                                                                             71
                                                                             66
                                                                        120,991
Ohio
                                                                        180,935
                                                                         93,600
                                                                         19,777
                                                                            373
                                                                          1,093
                                                                             22
                                                                        295,799
Oklahoma
                                                                        141,433
                                                                         27,873
                                                                          7,731
                                                                             49
                                                                            501
                                                                            469
                                                                        178,056
Oregon
                                                                         13,211
                                                                          9,790
                                                                          9,508
                                                                            218
                                                                            361
                                                                          4,896
                                                                         37,985
Pennsylvania
                                                                        126,316
                                                                         64,697
                                                                         67,650
                                                                            427
                                                                          1,060
                                                                             32
                                                                        260,183
Rhode Island
                                                                              0
                                                                          2,745
                                                                          3,338
                                                                             33
                                                                             85
                                                                              1
                                                                          6,202
South Carolina
                                                                        103,694
                                                                         28,536
                                                                         13,310
                                                                            294
                                                                            500
                                                                            646
                                                                        146,980
South Dakota
                                                                         29,711
                                                                          1,655
                                                                         10,301
                                                                             23
                                                                             86
                                                                            498
                                                                         42,273
Tennessee
                                                                         33,080
                                                                         59,145
                                                                         32,624
                                                                            154
                                                                            757
                                                                            277
                                                                        126,037
Texas
                                                                        249,748
                                                                        129,667
                                                                        108,633
                                                                          1,146
                                                                          2,483
                                                                          1,178
                                                                        492,855
Tribal
                                                                              0
                                                                            676
                                                                              0
                                                                              0
                                                                              0
                                                                              0
                                                                            676
Utah
                                                                         34,912
                                                                          6,599
                                                                          3,365
                                                                             27
                                                                            291
                                                                          1,934
                                                                         47,128
Vermont
                                                                            264
                                                                            902
                                                                          5,283
                                                                              8
                                                                            129
                                                                             49
                                                                          6,634
Virginia
                                                                         51,004
                                                                         50,387
                                                                         32,439
                                                                            275
                                                                            849
                                                                            399
                                                                        135,353
Washington
                                                                          5,569
                                                                         19,780
                                                                          6,885
                                                                            881
                                                                            633
                                                                            407
                                                                         34,156
West Virginia
                                                                         84,344
                                                                         32,458
                                                                         14,322
                                                                             64
                                                                            178
                                                                            215
                                                                        131,582
Wisconsin
                                                                         50,777
                                                                         61,080
                                                                          6,260
                                                                            122
                                                                            633
                                                                             70
                                                                        118,941
Wyoming
                                                                         48,198
                                                                         20,491
                                                                          5,944
                                                                             18
                                                                             87
                                                                          1,106
                                                                         75,844
Total
                                                                      3,281,364
                                                                      1,534,991
                                                                      1,125,985
                                                                         15,759
                                                                         29,288
                                                                         49,094
                                                                      6,036,480
 Table 4-26.  Reference case PM2.5 emissions (tons/year) for states by sector
State
                                      EGU
                                    NonEGU
                                   Nonpoint
                                    Nonroad
                                    Onroad
                                     Fires
                                     Total
Alabama
                                                                         13,154
                                                                         17,052
                                                                         33,235
                                                                          2,403
                                                                          2,217
                                                                         13,938
                                                                         81,999
Arizona
                                                                          3,889
                                                                          3,809
                                                                         20,214
                                                                          2,674
                                                                          2,762
                                                                         37,151
                                                                         70,498
Arkansas
                                                                          2,838
                                                                         10,527
                                                                         33,486
                                                                          2,042
                                                                          1,242
                                                                         10,315
                                                                         60,450
California
                                                                            475
                                                                         20,693
                                                                         73,607
                                                                         14,875
                                                                         13,492
                                                                         97,302
                                                                        220,443
Colorado
                                                                          3,845
                                                                          7,037
                                                                         19,868
                                                                          2,350
                                                                          2,387
                                                                         24,054
                                                                         59,540
Connecticut
                                                                            400
                                                                            222
                                                                          6,838
                                                                          1,038
                                                                          1,414
                                                                             56
                                                                          9,968
Delaware
                                                                            434
                                                                            772
                                                                          1,207
                                                                            383
                                                                            375
                                                                             87
                                                                          3,259
District of Columbia
                                                                              1
                                                                            172
                                                                            536
                                                                            139
                                                                            154
                                                                              0
                                                                          1,002
Florida
                                                                         12,723
                                                                         24,620
                                                                         50,472
                                                                          8,100
                                                                          7,652
                                                                         99,484
                                                                        203,050
Georgia
                                                                         13,445
                                                                         12,105
                                                                         59,412
                                                                          3,803
                                                                          4,863
                                                                         24,082
                                                                        117,711
Idaho
                                                                             36
                                                                          2,076
                                                                         40,288
                                                                          1,186
                                                                            714
                                                                         52,808
                                                                         97,108
Illinois
                                                                          8,587
                                                                         13,471
                                                                         70,775
                                                                          6,885
                                                                          4,926
                                                                            277
                                                                        104,922
Indiana
                                                                         22,354
                                                                         13,570
                                                                         72,501
                                                                          3,491
                                                                          3,380
                                                                            344
                                                                        115,640
Iowa
                                                                          4,298
                                                                          7,000
                                                                         51,684
                                                                          3,348
                                                                          1,519
                                                                            349
                                                                         68,198
Kansas
                                                                          3,199
                                                                          6,895
                                                                        136,633
                                                                          2,872
                                                                          1,268
                                                                          1,468
                                                                        152,335
Kentucky
                                                                         12,078
                                                                         10,353
                                                                         26,811
                                                                          2,717
                                                                          2,059
                                                                          5,155
                                                                         59,173
Louisiana
                                                                          3,093
                                                                         30,865
                                                                         27,082
                                                                          5,107
                                                                          1,673
                                                                         12,647
                                                                         80,467
Maine
                                                                            355
                                                                          3,543
                                                                          8,213
                                                                            881
                                                                            750
                                                                          2,127
                                                                         15,869
Maryland
                                                                          3,969
                                                                          6,382
                                                                         18,960
                                                                          1,975
                                                                          2,492
                                                                            531
                                                                         34,310
Massachusetts
                                                                          1,465
                                                                          2,123
                                                                         23,729
                                                                          1,914
                                                                          2,590
                                                                          1,324
                                                                         33,145
Michigan
                                                                          8,102
                                                                         11,688
                                                                         43,055
                                                                          4,696
                                                                          4,949
                                                                          1,283
                                                                         73,773
Minnesota
                                                                          2,598
                                                                          9,867
                                                                         68,121
                                                                          4,483
                                                                          2,882
                                                                          8,943
                                                                         96,893
Mississippi
                                                                          2,201
                                                                         10,492
                                                                         31,474
                                                                          2,337
                                                                          1,525
                                                                         14,897
                                                                         62,926
Missouri
                                                                          7,061
                                                                          6,384
                                                                         69,722
                                                                          3,954
                                                                          3,059
                                                                          2,636
                                                                         92,816
Montana
                                                                          3,870
                                                                          2,562
                                                                         28,479
                                                                          1,332
                                                                            492
                                                                         17,311
                                                                         54,048
Nebraska
                                                                          2,358
                                                                          2,834
                                                                         44,904
                                                                          2,967
                                                                            919
                                                                          1,483
                                                                         55,465
Nevada
                                                                          2,505
                                                                          4,032
                                                                          9,351
                                                                          1,319
                                                                            857
                                                                         19,018
                                                                         37,083
New Hampshire
                                                                          1,130
                                                                            464
                                                                          8,981
                                                                            576
                                                                            663
                                                                            534
                                                                         12,348
New Jersey
                                                                          2,452
                                                                          2,520
                                                                          8,559
                                                                          2,929
                                                                          3,244
                                                                            865
                                                                         20,569
New Mexico
                                                                          3,153
                                                                          1,442
                                                                         49,789
                                                                          1,148
                                                                          1,103
                                                                         48,662
                                                                        105,298
New York
                                                                          2,331
                                                                          4,859
                                                                         44,334
                                                                          5,032
                                                                          6,723
                                                                          1,601
                                                                         64,879
North Carolina
                                                                          9,983
                                                                         12,656
                                                                         43,398
                                                                          3,583
                                                                          3,521
                                                                          9,870
                                                                         83,011
North Dakota
                                                                          5,870
                                                                            795
                                                                         40,802
                                                                          2,126
                                                                            383
                                                                            934
                                                                         50,910
Ohio
                                                                         18,920
                                                                         12,353
                                                                         47,811
                                                                          5,302
                                                                          5,013
                                                                            316
                                                                         89,715
Oklahoma
                                                                          3,530
                                                                          5,695
                                                                         88,862
                                                                          2,029
                                                                          2,006
                                                                          6,644
                                                                        108,767
Oregon
                                                                            381
                                                                          8,869
                                                                         39,503
                                                                          2,148
                                                                          1,627
                                                                         65,350
                                                                        117,877
Pennsylvania
                                                                         16,727
                                                                         14,874
                                                                         38,523
                                                                          4,582
                                                                          4,854
                                                                            454
                                                                         80,014
Rhode Island
                                                                              4
                                                                            256
                                                                          1,070
                                                                            222
                                                                            383
                                                                             14
                                                                          1,949
South Carolina
                                                                          9,997
                                                                          4,527
                                                                         23,430
                                                                          1,932
                                                                          1,929
                                                                          9,163
                                                                         50,978
South Dakota
                                                                            737
                                                                          2,399
                                                                         32,697
                                                                          1,339
                                                                            416
                                                                          7,062
                                                                         44,650
Tennessee
                                                                          5,053
                                                                         21,553
                                                                         28,449
                                                                          2,939
                                                                          3,057
                                                                          3,934
                                                                         64,985
Texas
                                                                         21,677
                                                                         34,648
                                                                        187,604
                                                                         11,901
                                                                          9,289
                                                                         21,578
                                                                        286,698
Tribal
                                                                              1
                                                                          1,568
                                                                              0
                                                                              0
                                                                              0
                                                                              0
                                                                          1,569
Utah
                                                                          4,524
                                                                          3,530
                                                                         13,978
                                                                            963
                                                                          1,318
                                                                         27,412
                                                                         51,724
Vermont
                                                                             67
                                                                            336
                                                                          4,930
                                                                            307
                                                                            653
                                                                            696
                                                                          6,989
Virginia
                                                                          4,529
                                                                         10,165
                                                                         32,254
                                                                          3,507
                                                                          3,446
                                                                          5,659
                                                                         59,561
Washington
                                                                          1,444
                                                                          4,421
                                                                         35,706
                                                                          3,328
                                                                          2,874
                                                                          4,487
                                                                         52,259
West Virginia
                                                                         13,602
                                                                          4,281
                                                                         12,951
                                                                          1,048
                                                                            762
                                                                          3,050
                                                                         35,695
Wisconsin
                                                                          5,323
                                                                          7,853
                                                                         27,656
                                                                          3,161
                                                                          3,148
                                                                            994
                                                                         48,135
Wyoming
                                                                          5,662
                                                                         10,225
                                                                         30,812
                                                                            850
                                                                            392
                                                                         15,686
                                                                         63,626
Total
                                                                        276,430
                                                                        411,437
                                                                      1,912,757
                                                                        150,221
                                                                        129,416
                                                                        684,035
                                                                      3,564,296
   Table 4-27.  Future year baseline EGU CAP emissions (tons/year) by state
State
                                      CO
                                      NOX
                                      VOC
                                      SO2
                                      NH3
                                     PM10
                                     PM2.5
Alabama
                                                                         27,024
                                                                         64,064
                                                                          1,524
                                                                        186,084
                                                                          1,472
                                                                         16,686
                                                                         13,154
Arizona
                                                                         16,797
                                                                         36,971
                                                                            825
                                                                         36,996
                                                                          1,163
                                                                          5,038
                                                                          3,889
Arkansas
                                                                          9,925
                                                                         36,297
                                                                            658
                                                                         92,804
                                                                            560
                                                                          3,507
                                                                          2,838
California
                                                                         45,388
                                                                         20,910
                                                                          1,031
                                                                          5,346
                                                                          2,519
                                                                            580
                                                                            475
Colorado
                                                                          9,006
                                                                         50,879
                                                                            636
                                                                         74,255
                                                                            398
                                                                          4,605
                                                                          3,845
Connecticut
                                                                          9,180
                                                                          2,738
                                                                            139
                                                                          3,581
                                                                            313
                                                                            431
                                                                            400
Delaware
                                                                          4,256
                                                                          2,452
                                                                            132
                                                                          2,835
                                                                            119
                                                                            580
                                                                            434
District of Columbia
                                                                             67
                                                                             11
                                                                              2
                                                                              5
                                                                              3
                                                                              1
                                                                              1
Florida
                                                                         72,915
                                                                         83,174
                                                                          2,253
                                                                        117,702
                                                                          3,997
                                                                         19,098
                                                                         12,723
Georgia
                                                                         16,537
                                                                         43,778
                                                                          1,293
                                                                         96,712
                                                                            903
                                                                         18,668
                                                                         13,445
Idaho
                                                                          1,532
                                                                            613
                                                                             41
                                                                            182
                                                                             57
                                                                             38
                                                                             36
Illinois
                                                                         51,862
                                                                         56,128
                                                                          3,091
                                                                        118,217
                                                                          1,437
                                                                          9,926
                                                                          8,587
Indiana
                                                                         30,587
                                                                        106,881
                                                                          2,295
                                                                        200,969
                                                                          1,317
                                                                         33,816
                                                                         22,354
Iowa
                                                                          8,316
                                                                         42,698
                                                                            791
                                                                         85,178
                                                                            452
                                                                          5,735
                                                                          4,298
Kansas
                                                                          5,066
                                                                         25,163
                                                                            683
                                                                         45,740
                                                                            305
                                                                          3,996
                                                                          3,199
Kentucky
                                                                         37,287
                                                                         71,259
                                                                          1,604
                                                                        116,927
                                                                            928
                                                                         16,279
                                                                         12,078
Louisiana
                                                                         32,626
                                                                         33,509
                                                                            852
                                                                        142,447
                                                                          1,427
                                                                          3,677
                                                                          3,093
Maine
                                                                         12,789
                                                                          6,121
                                                                            306
                                                                          2,564
                                                                            269
                                                                            366
                                                                            355
Maryland
                                                                         13,446
                                                                         17,933
                                                                            533
                                                                         29,786
                                                                            301
                                                                          5,322
                                                                          3,969
Massachusetts
                                                                          7,128
                                                                          7,991
                                                                            279
                                                                         15,133
                                                                            395
                                                                          1,915
                                                                          1,465
Michigan
                                                                         25,856
                                                                         66,846
                                                                          1,497
                                                                        163,168
                                                                            874
                                                                         11,056
                                                                          8,102
Minnesota
                                                                          9,365
                                                                         36,867
                                                                            746
                                                                         52,380
                                                                            460
                                                                          3,034
                                                                          2,598
Mississippi
                                                                          9,704
                                                                         27,319
                                                                            440
                                                                         34,865
                                                                            469
                                                                          3,113
                                                                          2,201
Missouri
                                                                         16,499
                                                                         52,464
                                                                          1,714
                                                                        178,143
                                                                            740
                                                                          9,093
                                                                          7,061
Montana
                                                                          5,266
                                                                         20,946
                                                                            338
                                                                         24,018
                                                                            198
                                                                          6,117
                                                                          3,870
Nebraska
                                                                          4,691
                                                                         28,898
                                                                            542
                                                                         70,910
                                                                            292
                                                                          2,948
                                                                          2,358
Nevada
                                                                          9,677
                                                                         15,627
                                                                            438
                                                                         14,140
                                                                            953
                                                                          3,095
                                                                          2,505
New Hampshire
                                                                          5,667
                                                                          4,908
                                                                            206
                                                                          6,719
                                                                            207
                                                                          1,234
                                                                          1,130
New Jersey
                                                                         25,831
                                                                         11,178
                                                                            823
                                                                          9,042
                                                                            747
                                                                          2,948
                                                                          2,452
New Mexico
                                                                          9,079
                                                                         65,189
                                                                            574
                                                                         10,211
                                                                            570
                                                                          3,833
                                                                          3,153
New York
                                                                         19,731
                                                                         21,172
                                                                            731
                                                                         14,653
                                                                          1,076
                                                                          3,248
                                                                          2,331
North Carolina
                                                                         17,367
                                                                         44,141
                                                                          1,076
                                                                         71,113
                                                                            654
                                                                         13,368
                                                                          9,983
North Dakota
                                                                          7,437
                                                                         53,778
                                                                            867
                                                                        105,344
                                                                            383
                                                                          6,757
                                                                          5,870
Ohio
                                                                         33,481
                                                                         93,150
                                                                          2,005
                                                                        180,935
                                                                          1,317
                                                                         25,688
                                                                         18,920
Oklahoma
                                                                         26,165
                                                                         47,454
                                                                            957
                                                                        141,433
                                                                          1,073
                                                                          4,457
                                                                          3,530
Oregon
                                                                          5,905
                                                                         10,828
                                                                            203
                                                                         13,211
                                                                            381
                                                                            446
                                                                            381
Pennsylvania
                                                                         38,767
                                                                        123,501
                                                                          2,023
                                                                        126,316
                                                                          1,522
                                                                         22,117
                                                                         16,727
Rhode Island
                                                                          1,748
                                                                            456
                                                                             44
                                                                              0
                                                                            136
                                                                              7
                                                                              4
South Carolina
                                                                         10,305
                                                                         37,516
                                                                            726
                                                                        103,694
                                                                            515
                                                                         14,469
                                                                          9,997
South Dakota
                                                                            742
                                                                         14,293
                                                                            129
                                                                         29,711
                                                                             48
                                                                            764
                                                                            737
Tennessee
                                                                         10,693
                                                                         16,982
                                                                            862
                                                                         33,080
                                                                            406
                                                                          6,313
                                                                          5,053
Texas
                                                                         78,317
                                                                        145,182
                                                                          4,975
                                                                        249,748
                                                                          5,304
                                                                         31,404
                                                                         21,677
Tribal
                                                                            601
                                                                             73
                                                                             15
                                                                              0
                                                                             47
                                                                              2
                                                                              1
Utah
                                                                          5,632
                                                                         67,476
                                                                            526
                                                                         34,912
                                                                            279
                                                                          5,843
                                                                          4,524
Vermont
                                                                          1,868
                                                                            458
                                                                             52
                                                                            264
                                                                             25
                                                                             69
                                                                             67
Virginia
                                                                         30,205
                                                                         39,408
                                                                            821
                                                                         51,004
                                                                          1,115
                                                                          5,404
                                                                          4,529
Washington
                                                                          7,183
                                                                         14,284
                                                                            326
                                                                          5,569
                                                                            346
                                                                          1,706
                                                                          1,444
West Virginia
                                                                         15,496
                                                                         54,247
                                                                          1,320
                                                                         84,344
                                                                            658
                                                                         18,415
                                                                         13,602
Wisconsin
                                                                         19,247
                                                                         35,179
                                                                          1,137
                                                                         50,777
                                                                            649
                                                                          6,503
                                                                          5,323
Wyoming
                                                                          9,087
                                                                         71,380
                                                                            970
                                                                         48,198
                                                                            481
                                                                          7,385
                                                                          5,662
TOTAL
                                                                        873,344
                                                                      1,930,769
                                                                         46,050
                                                                      3,281,364
                                                                         40,259
                                                                        371,101
                                                                        276,430
*  Emission estimates apply to all fossil Electric Generating Units, including those with capacity < 25MW

    MATS Control Case 
For the future year control case (i.e., policy case) air quality modeling, the emissions for all sectors were unchanged from the base case modeling except for those from EGUs.  The IPM model was used to prepare the future year policy case for EGU emissions. The air quality modeling for MATS relied on EGU emission projections from an interim IPM platform based on the Cross-state Air Pollution Rule version 4.10_FTransport, and was subsequently updated during the rulemaking process.  The updates made include: updated assumptions regarding the removal of HCl by alkaline fly ash in subbituminous and lignite coals; an update to the fuel-based mercury emission factor for petroleum coke, which was corrected based on re-examination of the 1999 ICR data; updated capital cost for new nuclear capacity and nuclear life extension costs; corrected variable operating and maintenance cost (VOM) for ACI retrofits; adjusted coal rank availability for some units, consistent with EIA From 923 (2008);  updated state rules in Washington and Colorado; and numerous unit-level revisions based on comments received through the notice and comment process.  Additional details on the version of IPM used to develop the control case are available in Chapter 3.

The changes in EGU SO2, and PM2.5 emissions as a result of the policy case for the lower 48 states are summarized in Table 5-1.  Table 5-2 shows the CAP emissions for the modeled MATS control case by State. State-specific difference summaries of EGU SO2 and PM2.5 for the sum of the lower 48 states are shown in Table 5-3 and Table 5-4 respectively. 
Table 5-1.  Summary of emissions changes for the MATS AQ modeling in the lower 48 states
Future Year EGU Emissions
                                      SO2
                                     PM2.5
Base Case EGU Emissions (tons)
                                                                      3,281,364
                                                                        276,430
Control Case EGU Emissions (tons)
                                                                      1,866,247
                                                                        223,320
   Reductions to Base Case in Control case (tons)
                                                                      1,415,117
                                                                         53,110
   Percentage Reduction of Base EGU Emissions
                                                                            43%
                                                                            19%
Total Man-made Emissions*
 
 
Total Base Case Emissions (tons)
                                                                      6,036,480
                                                                      3,564,296
Total Control Case Emissions (tons)
                                                                      4,621,363
                                                                      3,511,186
   Percentage Reduction of All Man-made Emissions
                                                                            23%
                                                                             1%
* In this table, man-made emissions includes average fires.
Table 5-2.  EGU emissions totals for the Modeled MATS control case in the lower 48 states
State
                                      CO
                                      NOX
                                      VOC
                                      SO2
                                      NH3
                                     PM10
                                     PM2.5
Alabama
                                                                         20,873
                                                                         61,863
                                                                          1,313
                                                                         68,517
                                                                          1,235
                                                                          9,734
                                                                          7,844
Arizona
                                                                         13,238
                                                                         34,804
                                                                            749
                                                                         23,459
                                                                            921
                                                                          4,264
                                                                          3,494
Arkansas
                                                                          9,036
                                                                         35,788
                                                                            642
                                                                         35,112
                                                                            490
                                                                          1,696
                                                                          1,593
California
                                                                         56,360
                                                                         27,159
                                                                          1,307
                                                                          5,041
                                                                          2,548
                                                                          1,057
                                                                            942
Colorado
                                                                          8,219
                                                                         44,409
                                                                            582
                                                                         19,564
                                                                            358
                                                                          3,492
                                                                          2,859
Connecticut
                                                                          8,017
                                                                          2,800
                                                                            136
                                                                          1,400
                                                                            313
                                                                            439
                                                                            412
Delaware
                                                                          1,312
                                                                          2,527
                                                                             67
                                                                          4,160
                                                                             93
                                                                          3,056
                                                                          1,455
District of Columbia
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Florida
                                                                         66,378
                                                                         61,676
                                                                          2,055
                                                                         64,791
                                                                          3,482
                                                                         16,434
                                                                         11,377
Georgia
                                                                         14,217
                                                                         41,006
                                                                          1,197
                                                                         78,197
                                                                            790
                                                                         11,165
                                                                          9,742
Idaho
                                                                          1,523
                                                                            609
                                                                             41
                                                                            182
                                                                             56
                                                                             38
                                                                             36
Illinois
                                                                         24,365
                                                                         50,655
                                                                          2,353
                                                                        103,867
                                                                          1,050
                                                                          7,309
                                                                          6,588
Indiana
                                                                         17,061
                                                                        102,045
                                                                          1,872
                                                                        156,781
                                                                          1,110
                                                                         29,683
                                                                         20,388
Iowa
                                                                          7,340
                                                                         41,247
                                                                            747
                                                                         48,030
                                                                            410
                                                                          3,318
                                                                          2,947
Kansas
                                                                          4,683
                                                                         22,136
                                                                            623
                                                                         22,767
                                                                            282
                                                                          2,504
                                                                          2,263
Kentucky
                                                                         25,911
                                                                         70,126
                                                                          1,476
                                                                        125,430
                                                                            882
                                                                         12,544
                                                                         10,635
Louisiana
                                                                         28,171
                                                                         31,655
                                                                            767
                                                                         30,509
                                                                          1,261
                                                                          2,003
                                                                          1,899
Maine
                                                                         10,992
                                                                          5,683
                                                                            302
                                                                          1,372
                                                                            267
                                                                            342
                                                                            331
Maryland
                                                                          4,283
                                                                         16,554
                                                                            400
                                                                         18,091
                                                                            211
                                                                          3,851
                                                                          3,143
Massachusetts
                                                                          5,408
                                                                          7,211
                                                                            226
                                                                          5,033
                                                                            344
                                                                          1,702
                                                                          1,267
Michigan
                                                                         18,792
                                                                         60,982
                                                                          1,215
                                                                         82,834
                                                                            718
                                                                          8,261
                                                                          6,893
Minnesota
                                                                          8,699
                                                                         34,942
                                                                            709
                                                                         33,214
                                                                            430
                                                                          3,332
                                                                          2,936
Mississippi
                                                                          8,782
                                                                         20,749
                                                                            410
                                                                         15,975
                                                                            397
                                                                          1,949
                                                                          1,720
Missouri
                                                                         12,249
                                                                         52,755
                                                                          1,605
                                                                         95,965
                                                                            686
                                                                          5,216
                                                                          4,809
Montana
                                                                          2,223
                                                                         19,758
                                                                            264
                                                                          6,399
                                                                            133
                                                                          2,637
                                                                          1,727
Nebraska
                                                                          4,493
                                                                         28,180
                                                                            533
                                                                         34,631
                                                                            277
                                                                          2,152
                                                                          1,828
Nevada
                                                                          7,178
                                                                         14,382
                                                                            336
                                                                          6,372
                                                                            725
                                                                          2,626
                                                                          2,073
New Hampshire
                                                                          6,781
                                                                          4,862
                                                                            232
                                                                          2,102
                                                                            232
                                                                          1,336
                                                                          1,264
New Jersey
                                                                          8,350
                                                                          7,699
                                                                            315
                                                                          6,404
                                                                            546
                                                                          2,020
                                                                          1,583
New Mexico
                                                                          7,987
                                                                         64,922
                                                                            545
                                                                          9,984
                                                                            554
                                                                          2,961
                                                                          2,750
New York
                                                                         18,725
                                                                         20,863
                                                                            699
                                                                         28,174
                                                                          1,086
                                                                          3,123
                                                                          2,350
North Carolina
                                                                         15,195
                                                                         35,309
                                                                          1,033
                                                                         59,551
                                                                            602
                                                                          8,885
                                                                          7,988
North Dakota
                                                                          7,266
                                                                         53,267
                                                                            858
                                                                         23,889
                                                                            371
                                                                          5,940
                                                                          5,051
Ohio
                                                                         29,956
                                                                         85,565
                                                                          1,852
                                                                        139,208
                                                                          1,229
                                                                         19,599
                                                                         15,823
Oklahoma
                                                                         26,687
                                                                         44,725
                                                                            892
                                                                         44,602
                                                                            970
                                                                          2,293
                                                                          2,056
Oregon
                                                                          6,002
                                                                          9,671
                                                                            198
                                                                          3,565
                                                                            379
                                                                            241
                                                                            233
Pennsylvania
                                                                         24,865
                                                                        104,906
                                                                          1,645
                                                                         93,606
                                                                          1,349
                                                                         17,330
                                                                         14,080
Rhode Island
                                                                          1,721
                                                                            443
                                                                             43
                                                                              0
                                                                            134
                                                                              7
                                                                              4
South Carolina
                                                                          9,826
                                                                         37,849
                                                                            725
                                                                         40,901
                                                                            459
                                                                          9,627
                                                                          6,963
South Dakota
                                                                            641
                                                                         14,290
                                                                            117
                                                                          2,483
                                                                             41
                                                                            260
                                                                            245
Tennessee
                                                                          5,551
                                                                         16,931
                                                                            723
                                                                         42,666
                                                                            334
                                                                          6,721
                                                                          5,272
Texas
                                                                         71,475
                                                                        138,086
                                                                          4,444
                                                                        105,958
                                                                          4,774
                                                                         25,359
                                                                         17,601
Tribal
                                                                            266
                                                                             32
                                                                              7
                                                                              0
                                                                             21
                                                                              1
                                                                              1
Utah
                                                                          4,003
                                                                         65,286
                                                                            474
                                                                         17,007
                                                                            241
                                                                          4,755
                                                                          3,896
Vermont
                                                                          1,868
                                                                            458
                                                                             52
                                                                            264
                                                                             25
                                                                             69
                                                                             67
Virginia
                                                                         26,778
                                                                         37,255
                                                                            707
                                                                         33,704
                                                                            748
                                                                          5,306
                                                                          4,506
Washington
                                                                          6,334
                                                                          3,834
                                                                            179
                                                                            854
                                                                            254
                                                                            183
                                                                            176
West Virginia
                                                                         13,923
                                                                         47,836
                                                                          1,263
                                                                         66,857
                                                                            632
                                                                         14,321
                                                                         11,572
Wisconsin
                                                                         16,124
                                                                         32,865
                                                                          1,012
                                                                         28,322
                                                                            578
                                                                          4,725
                                                                          3,969
Wyoming
                                                                          7,516
                                                                         71,135
                                                                            932
                                                                         28,456
                                                                            467
                                                                          5,946
                                                                          4,671
TOTAL
                                                                        707,640
                                                                      1,789,790
                                                                         40,875
                                                                      1,866,247
                                                                         35,493
                                                                        281,811
                                                                        223,320
 Table 5-3.  State-specific changes in annual EGU SO2 for the lower 48 states
State
Future year baseline SO2 (tons)
Future Year Policy Case SO2 (tons)
EGU SO2 reduction (tons)
EGU SO2 reduction (%)
Alabama
                                                                        186,084
                                                                         68,517
                                                                        117,568
                                                                            63%
Arizona
                                                                         36,996
                                                                         23,459
                                                                         13,537
                                                                            37%
Arkansas
                                                                         92,804
                                                                         35,112
                                                                         57,692
                                                                            62%
California
                                                                          5,346
                                                                          5,041
                                                                            305
                                                                             6%
Colorado
                                                                         74,255
                                                                         19,564
                                                                         54,690
                                                                            74%
Connecticut
                                                                          3,581
                                                                          1,400
                                                                          2,181
                                                                            61%
Delaware
                                                                          2,835
                                                                          4,160
                                                                         -1,324
                                                                           -47%
District of Columbia
                                                                              5
                                                                              0
                                                                              5
                                                                           100%
Florida
                                                                        117,702
                                                                         64,791
                                                                         52,911
                                                                            45%
Georgia
                                                                         96,712
                                                                         78,197
                                                                         18,515
                                                                            19%
Idaho
                                                                            182
                                                                            182
                                                                              0
                                                                             0%
Illinois
                                                                        118,217
                                                                        103,867
                                                                         14,350
                                                                            12%
Indiana
                                                                        200,969
                                                                        156,781
                                                                         44,189
                                                                            22%
Iowa
                                                                         85,178
                                                                         48,030
                                                                         37,148
                                                                            44%
Kansas
                                                                         45,740
                                                                         22,767
                                                                         22,973
                                                                            50%
Kentucky
                                                                        116,927
                                                                        125,430
                                                                         -8,503
                                                                            -7%
Louisiana
                                                                        142,447
                                                                         30,509
                                                                        111,938
                                                                            79%
Maine
                                                                          2,564
                                                                          1,372
                                                                          1,191
                                                                            46%
Maryland
                                                                         29,786
                                                                         18,091
                                                                         11,695
                                                                            39%
Massachusetts
                                                                         15,133
                                                                          5,033
                                                                         10,100
                                                                            67%
Michigan
                                                                        163,168
                                                                         82,834
                                                                         80,334
                                                                            49%
Minnesota
                                                                         52,380
                                                                         33,214
                                                                         19,165
                                                                            37%
Mississippi
                                                                         34,865
                                                                         15,975
                                                                         18,890
                                                                            54%
Missouri
                                                                        178,143
                                                                         95,965
                                                                         82,177
                                                                            46%
Montana
                                                                         24,018
                                                                          6,399
                                                                         17,618
                                                                            73%
Nebraska
                                                                         70,910
                                                                         34,631
                                                                         36,279
                                                                            51%
Nevada
                                                                         14,140
                                                                          6,372
                                                                          7,768
                                                                            55%
New Hampshire
                                                                          6,719
                                                                          2,102
                                                                          4,618
                                                                            69%
New Jersey
                                                                          9,042
                                                                          6,404
                                                                          2,638
                                                                            29%
New Mexico
                                                                         10,211
                                                                          9,984
                                                                            228
                                                                             2%
New York
                                                                         14,653
                                                                         28,174
                                                                        -13,521
                                                                           -92%
North Carolina
                                                                         71,113
                                                                         59,551
                                                                         11,562
                                                                            16%
North Dakota
                                                                        105,344
                                                                         23,889
                                                                         81,455
                                                                            77%
Ohio
                                                                        180,935
                                                                        139,208
                                                                         41,727
                                                                            23%
Oklahoma
                                                                        141,433
                                                                         44,602
                                                                         96,831
                                                                            68%
Oregon
                                                                         13,211
                                                                          3,565
                                                                          9,646
                                                                            73%
Pennsylvania
                                                                        126,316
                                                                         93,606
                                                                         32,710
                                                                            26%
Rhode Island
                                                                              0
                                                                              0
                                                                              0
                                      N/A
South Carolina
                                                                        103,694
                                                                         40,901
                                                                         62,793
                                                                            61%
South Dakota
                                                                         29,711
                                                                          2,483
                                                                         27,228
                                                                            92%
Tennessee
                                                                         33,080
                                                                         42,666
                                                                         -9,586
                                                                           -29%
Texas
                                                                        249,748
                                                                        105,958
                                                                        143,790
                                                                            58%
Tribal
                                                                              0
                                                                              0
                                                                              0
                                      N/A
Utah
                                                                         34,912
                                                                         17,007
                                                                         17,905
                                                                            51%
Vermont
                                                                            264
                                                                            264
                                                                              0
                                                                             0%
Virginia
                                                                         51,004
                                                                         33,704
                                                                         17,300
                                                                            34%
Washington
                                                                          5,569
                                                                            854
                                                                          4,716
                                                                            85%
West Virginia
                                                                         84,344
                                                                         66,857
                                                                         17,488
                                                                            21%
Wisconsin
                                                                         50,777
                                                                         28,322
                                                                         22,454
                                                                            44%
Wyoming
                                                                         48,198
                                                                         28,456
                                                                         19,742
                                                                            41%
TOTAL
                                                                      3,281,364
                                                                      1,866,247
                                                                      1,415,117
 

Table 5-4.  State-specific changes in annual EGU PM2.5 for the lower 48 states
State
Future year baseline PM2.5 (tons)
Future Year Policy Case PM2.5 (tons)
EGU PM2.5 reduction (tons)
EGU PM2.5 reduction (%)
Alabama
                                                                         13,154
                                                                          7,844
                                                                          5,310
                                                                            40%
Arizona
                                                                          3,889
                                                                          3,494
                                                                            395
                                                                            10%
Arkansas
                                                                          2,838
                                                                          1,593
                                                                          1,246
                                                                            44%
California
                                                                            475
                                                                            942
                                                                           -467
                                                                           -98%
Colorado
                                                                          3,845
                                                                          2,859
                                                                            985
                                                                            26%
Connecticut
                                                                            400
                                                                            412
                                                                            -12
                                                                            -3%
Delaware
                                                                            434
                                                                          1,455
                                                                         -1,021
                                                                          -235%
District of Columbia
                                                                              1
                                                                              0
                                                                              1
                                                                           100%
Florida
                                                                         12,723
                                                                         11,377
                                                                          1,346
                                                                            11%
Georgia
                                                                         13,445
                                                                          9,742
                                                                          3,703
                                                                            28%
Idaho
                                                                             36
                                                                             36
                                                                              0
                                                                             0%
Illinois
                                                                          8,587
                                                                          6,588
                                                                          2,000
                                                                            23%
Indiana
                                                                         22,354
                                                                         20,388
                                                                          1,966
                                                                             9%
Iowa
                                                                          4,298
                                                                          2,947
                                                                          1,351
                                                                            31%
Kansas
                                                                          3,199
                                                                          2,263
                                                                            936
                                                                            29%
Kentucky
                                                                         12,078
                                                                         10,635
                                                                          1,443
                                                                            12%
Louisiana
                                                                          3,093
                                                                          1,899
                                                                          1,193
                                                                            39%
Maine
                                                                            355
                                                                            331
                                                                             24
                                                                             7%
Maryland
                                                                          3,969
                                                                          3,143
                                                                            826
                                                                            21%
Massachusetts
                                                                          1,465
                                                                          1,267
                                                                            198
                                                                            14%
Michigan
                                                                          8,102
                                                                          6,893
                                                                          1,210
                                                                            15%
Minnesota
                                                                          2,598
                                                                          2,936
                                                                           -339
                                                                           -13%
Mississippi
                                                                          2,201
                                                                          1,720
                                                                            481
                                                                            22%
Missouri
                                                                          7,061
                                                                          4,809
                                                                          2,252
                                                                            32%
Montana
                                                                          3,870
                                                                          1,727
                                                                          2,143
                                                                            55%
Nebraska
                                                                          2,358
                                                                          1,828
                                                                            530
                                                                            22%
Nevada
                                                                          2,505
                                                                          2,073
                                                                            432
                                                                            17%
New Hampshire
                                                                          1,130
                                                                          1,264
                                                                           -134
                                                                           -12%
New Jersey
                                                                          2,452
                                                                          1,583
                                                                            868
                                                                            35%
New Mexico
                                                                          3,153
                                                                          2,750
                                                                            403
                                                                            13%
New York
                                                                          2,331
                                                                          2,350
                                                                            -19
                                                                            -1%
North Carolina
                                                                          9,983
                                                                          7,988
                                                                          1,995
                                                                            20%
North Dakota
                                                                          5,870
                                                                          5,051
                                                                            819
                                                                            14%
Ohio
                                                                         18,920
                                                                         15,823
                                                                          3,097
                                                                            16%
Oklahoma
                                                                          3,530
                                                                          2,056
                                                                          1,474
                                                                            42%
Oregon
                                                                            381
                                                                            233
                                                                            148
                                                                            39%
Pennsylvania
                                                                         16,727
                                                                         14,080
                                                                          2,646
                                                                            16%
Rhode Island
                                                                              4
                                                                              4
                                                                              0
                                                                             2%
South Carolina
                                                                          9,997
                                                                          6,963
                                                                          3,033
                                                                            30%
South Dakota
                                                                            737
                                                                            245
                                                                            492
                                                                            67%
Tennessee
                                                                          5,053
                                                                          5,272
                                                                           -219
                                                                            -4%
Texas
                                                                         21,677
                                                                         17,601
                                                                          4,077
                                                                            19%
Tribal
                                                                              1
                                                                              1
                                                                              1
                                                                            56%
Utah
                                                                          4,524
                                                                          3,896
                                                                            627
                                                                            14%
Vermont
                                                                             67
                                                                             67
                                                                              0
                                                                             0%
Virginia
                                                                          4,529
                                                                          4,506
                                                                             24
                                                                             1%
Washington
                                                                          1,444
                                                                            176
                                                                          1,268
                                                                            88%
West Virginia
                                                                         13,602
                                                                         11,572
                                                                          2,031
                                                                            15%
Wisconsin
                                                                          5,323
                                                                          3,969
                                                                          1,354
                                                                            25%
Wyoming
                                                                          5,662
                                                                          4,671
                                                                            991
                                                                            17%
TOTAL
                                                                        276,430
                                                                        223,320
                                                                         53,110
 
    References
EPA, 2005.  Clean Air Interstate Rule Emissions Inventory Technical Support Document, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, March 2005.  Available at http://www.epa.gov/cair/pdfs/finaltech01.pdf.
EPA, 2006.  Regulatory Impact Analyses, 2006 National Ambient Air Quality Standards for Particle Pollution. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, October, 2006. Docket # EPA-HQ-OAR-2001-0017, # EPAHQ-OAR-2006-0834.  Available at http://www.epa.gov/ttn/ecas/ria.html.
EPA, 2007a.  Guidance for Estimating VOC and NOx Emission Changes from MACT Rules, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Air Quality Policy Division, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711, EPA-457/B-07-001, May 2007.  Available at http://www.epa.gov/ttn/naaqs/ozone/o3imp8hr/documents/guidance/200705_epa457_b-07-001_emission_changes_mact_rules.pdf.
EPA. 2007b.  National Scale Modeling for the Final Mobile Source Air Toxics Rule, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Emissions Analysis and Monitoring Division, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711, EPA 454/R-07-002, February 2007. Available at http://www.epa.gov/otaq/regs/toxics/454r07002.pdf
EPA, 2009.  Regulatory Impact Analysis: Control of Emissions of Air Pollution from Locomotive Engines and Marine Compression Ignition Engines Less than 30 Liters Per Cylinder.  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Office of Transportation and Air Quality, Assessment and Standards Division, Ann Arbor, MI 48105, EPA420-R-08-001a, May 2009.  Available at: http://www.epa.gov/otaq/regs/nonroad/420r08001a.pdf 
EPA, 2010.  Technical Support Document:  The Industrial Sectors Integrated Solutions (ISIS) Model and the Analysis for the National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants and New Source Performance Standards for the Portland Cement Manufacturing Industry, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Sectors Policies and Program Division and Air Pollution Prevention and Control Division, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711, August 2010.

                                  APPENDIX A 
	
      Ancillary Datasets and Parameters Used for Each MATS Modeling Case

The ancillary data files used for the MATS cases are shown in Table A-1. The Input name column gives a brief designator for the dataset.  The Environment Variable column gives the name of the environment variable that is used by SMOKE to specify the input.  The Sector column specifies the modeling sector for the dataset.  The remaining columns show the data set name and version used in the 2005 base case and 2017 reference case.

To match the Datasets and Versions listed in this table to actual data files, combine the Dataset name and the version number in the following pattern: <Dataset Name>_<Date>_<Version number>.txt, where <Date> is the last date of change for that version and will have a unique value for the combination of Dataset Name and Version number.

Table A-2 shows the parameters used for the MATS modeling cases. The columns are the same as in Table A-1 except that the Program is not shown.  Many of the parameters apply to all programs, or all programs for the specified processing sector.  The values for the control case are not shown, but they are the same as those used for the 2017 reference case.

Table A-1.  List of ancillary data sets associated with the MATS modeling cases.
Input Name
Environment Variable
Program
Sector
2005 Base Case
2017 Reference Case
Area-to-point data
ARTOPNT
smkinven

artopnt_2002detroit [v0]
artopnt_2002detroit [v0]
BEIS3 emission factors
B3FAC
Tmpbeis3
beis
beis3_efac_v3.14 [v0]
beis3_efac_v3.14 [v0]
Biogenic gridding surrogate for reports 12EUS1
BGPRO
Smkmerge
beis
bgpro_12EUS1 (/garnet/oaqps) [v0]
bgpro_12EUS1 (/garnet/oaqps) [v0]
Biogenic gridding surrogate for reports 36US1
BGPRO
Smkmerge
beis
bgpro_36US1 (/garnet/oaqps) [v0]
bgpro_36US1 (/garnet/oaqps) [v0]
Biogenic land use, file A, 12EUS1
BELD3_A
Normbeis3
beis
LANDA_EUS12_279X240 (/garnet/oaqps) [v0]
LANDA_EUS12_279X240 (/garnet/oaqps) [v0]
Biogenic land use, file A, 36US1
BELD3_A
Normbeis3
beis
LANDA_US36_148X112 (/garnet/oaqps) [v0]
LANDA_US36_148X112 (/garnet/oaqps) [v0]
Biogenic land use, file B, 12EUS1
BELD3_B
Normbeis3
beis
LANDB_EUS12_279X240 (/garnet/oaqps) [v0]
LANDB_EUS12_279X240 (/garnet/oaqps) [v0]
Biogenic land use, file B, 36US1
BELD3_B
Normbeis3
beis
LANDB_US36_148X112 (/garnet/oaqps) [v0]
LANDB_US36_148X112 (/garnet/oaqps) [v0]
Biogenic land use, totals, 12EUS1
BELD3_TOT
Normbeis3
beis
LAND_TOTALS_EUS12_279X240 (/garnet/oaqps) [v0]
LAND_TOTALS_EUS12_279X240 (/garnet/oaqps) [v0]
Biogenic land use, totals, 36US1
BELD3_TOT
Normbeis3
beis
LAND_TOTALS_US36_148X112 (/garnet/oaqps) [v0]
LAND_TOTALS_US36_148X112 (/garnet/oaqps) [v0]
Bioseasons file 12EUS1
BIOSEASON
Tmpbeis3
beis
bioseason.cmaq.2005b_12km (/garnet/oaqps) [v0]
bioseason.cmaq.2005b_12km (/garnet/oaqps) [v0]
Bioseasons file 36US1 mcip v3.4 beta4 b
BIOSEASON
Tmpbeis3
beis
bioseason.cmaq.2005b_36km (/garnet/oaqps) [v0]
bioseason.cmaq.2005b_36km (/garnet/oaqps) [v0]
CEM annually summed data
CEMSUM
smkinven
ptipm
cemsum_ptipm_2005 (/orchid/share) [v0]
cemsum_ptipm_2005 (/garnet/oaqps) [v0]
Combination profiles
GSPRO_COMBO
Spcmat

gspro_combo_2005 [v6]
gspro_combo_2005 [v6]
Combination profiles - nonpt
GSPRO_COMBO
Spcmat
nonpt
gspro_combo_tier3_2005_base_nonpt_v2 [v2]
gspro_combo_tier3_2017_ref_nonpt [v1]
Combination profiles - nonroad
GSPRO_COMBO
Spcmat
nonroad
gspro_combo_tier3_2005_base_nonroad_v2 [v0]
Combination profiles  -  onroad
GSPRO_COMBO
Spcmat
onroad
gspro_combo_tier3_2005_base_onroad_v2 [v0]
gspro_combo_tier3_2017_ref_onroad [v2]
Combination profiles - ptnonipm (same as nonpt)
GSPRO_COMBO
Spcmat
ptnonipm
gspro_combo_tier3_2005_base_nonpt_v2 [v2]
gspro_combo_tier3_2005_base_nonpt_v2 [v2]
Country, State, County Information
COSTCY
smkinven

costcy_for_2002 [v5]
costcy_for_2002 [v5]
Elevation Configuration File for Point Sources
PELVCONFIG
Laypoint

pelvconfig_inline_allpts [v1]
pelvconfig_inline_allpts [v1]

Elevation Configuration File for seca_c3 sector
PELVCONFIG
Laypoint
seca_c3
pelvconfig_seca_c3 [v1]
pelvconfig_seca_c3 [v1]

Grid Description List
GRIDDESC
Grdmat

griddesc_lambertonly [v39]
griddesc_lambertonly [v39]

Gridding surrogates CAN-MEX 12km
SRGPRO
Grdmat
othon
Canada_12km_revised (/garnet/oaqps) [v0]
Canada_12km_revised (/garnet/oaqps) [v0]

Gridding surrogates CAN-MEX 12km
SRGPRO
Grdmat
othar
Canada_12km_revised (/garnet/oaqps) [v0]
Canada_12km_revised (/garnet/oaqps) [v0]

Gridding surrogates CAN-MEX 36km
SRGPRO
Grdmat
othar
Canada_36km_revised (/garnet/oaqps) [v0]
Canada_36km_revised (/garnet/oaqps) [v0]

Gridding surrogates CAN-MEX 36km
SRGPRO
Grdmat
othon
Canada_36km_revised (/garnet/oaqps) [v0]
Canada_36km_revised (/garnet/oaqps) [v0]

Gridding surrogates USA 12km
SRGPRO
Grdmat

USA-CAN-MEX_12km (/garnet/oaqps) [v0]
USA-CAN-MEX_12km (/garnet/oaqps) [v0]

Gridding surrogates USA 36km
SRGPRO
Grdmat

USA-CAN-MEX_36km (/garnet/oaqps) [v0]
USA-CAN-MEX_36km (/garnet/oaqps) [v0]

GSCNV - pollutant to pollutant conversions
GSCNV
Spcmat

gscnv_cb05_soa [v2]
gscnv_cb05_soa [v3]

GSPRO speciated MOVES PM
GSPROTMP_L
Spcmat

gspro_speciated_pm [v3]
gspro_speciated_pm [v3]

GSREF speciated PM
GSREFTMP_L
Spcmat

gsref_speciated_pm [v2]
gsref_speciated_pm [v2]

Holidays table
HOLIDAYS
Temporal

holidays [v0]
holidays [v0]

Inventory Table - HAPCAP EBAFM integration CMAQ-lite v4.7 N1e HDGHG
INVTABLE
smkinven
onroad
invtable_hapcap_cb05soa [v13]
invtable_hapcap_cb05soa [v13]

Inventory Table - HAPCAP EBAFM integration CMAQ-lite v4.7 N1e HDGHG
INVTABLE
smkinven
nonpt
invtable_hapcap_cb05soa [v13]
invtable_hapcap_cb05soa [v13]

Inventory Table - HAPCAP integration CMAQ-lite v4.7 N1e HDGHG
INVTABLE
smkinven

invtable_hapcap_cb05soa [v12]
invtable_hapcap_cb05soa [v12]

Inventory Table -no-BAFM CMAQ-lite v4.7 N1e HDGHG
INVTABLE
smkinven
avefire
invtable_hapcap_cb05_no_bafm [v3]
invtable_hapcap_cb05_no_bafm [v3]

Inventory Table -no-BAFM CMAQ-lite v4.7 N1e HDGHG
INVTABLE
smkinven
ptipm
invtable_hapcap_cb05_no_bafm [v3]
invtable_hapcap_cb05_no_bafm [v3]

List of sectors for mrggrid
SECTORLIST
Mrggrid

sectorlist_2005ct_05b [v3]
sectorlist_2017ct_ref_05b [v1]

List of sectors for mrggrid
SECTORLIST
Mrggrid

sectorlist_2005ct_05b [v2]
sectorlist_2017ct_ref_05b [v0]

List of sectors for mrggrid
SECTORLIST
Mrggrid

sectorlist_2005ct_05b [v1]
sectorlist_2017ct_ref_05b [v0]

MACT Description
MACTDESC
Smkreport

mactdesc_2002v3 [v1]
mactdesc_2002v3 [v1]

Meteorology temperature profiles
METMOVES
movesmrg
onroad
SMOKE_DAILY_12MERGEUS1_2005 [v0]
SMOKE_DAILY_12MERGEUS1_2005 [v0]

Mobile codes file default
MCODES
smkinven

mcodes [v1]
mcodes [v1]

MOVES county cross-reference
MCXREF
movesmrg
onroad
MCXREF_tier3 [v0]
MCXREF_tier3 [v0]

MOVES Emission Factor Table list
MRCLIST
movesmrg
onroad
mrclist_RPV_05jul2011_2005ct_05b [v0]
mrclist_RPV_01jul2011_2017ct_ref_05b [v0]

MOVES Emission Factor Table list
MRCLIST
movesmrg
onroad
mrclist_RPD_20may2011_2005ct_05b [v0]
mrclist_RPD_10jun2011_2017ct_ref_05b [v0]

MOVES Emission Factor Table list
MRCLIST
movesmrg
onroad
mrclist_RPP_20may2011_2005ct_05b [v0]
mrclist_RPP_10jun2011_2017ct_ref_05b [v0]

MOVES Emission Factor Tables
EFTABLES
movesmrg
onroad
EFtables_20110520_Tier3Base2005 [v0]
EFtables_20110610_Tier3Ref2017 [v0]

MOVES Emission Factor Tables
EFTABLES
movesmrg
onroad
EFtables_20110705_Tier3Base2005_RPVfix [v0]
EFtables_20110701_Tier3Ref2017_RPVfix [v0]

MOVES processes and pollutants
MEPROC
movesmrg
onroad
meproc_RPP_mplite [v0]
meproc_RPP_mplite [v0]

MOVES processes and pollutants
MEPROC
movesmrg
onroad
meproc_RPV_mplite [v1]
meproc_RPV_mplite [v1]

MOVES processes and pollutants
MEPROC
movesmrg
onroad
meproc_RPD_mplite [v2]
meproc_RPD_mplite [v2]

MOVES reference county fuel month
MFMREF
movesmrg
onroad
MFMREF_tier3 [v0]
MFMREF_tier3 [v0]

NAICS descriptions
NAICSDESC
Smkreport

naicsdesc [v0]
naicsdesc [v0]

NHAPEXCLUDE alm_no_c3
NHAPEXCLUDE
smkinven
alm_no_c3
nhapexclude_alm_no_c3_pf4 [v1]
nhapexclude_alm_no_c3_pf4 [v1]

NHAPEXCLUDE avefire
NHAPEXCLUDE
smkinven
avefire
nhapexclude_everything [v0]
nhapexclude_everything [v0]

NHAPEXCLUDE nonpt
NHAPEXCLUDE
smkinven
nonpt
nhapexclude_nonpt_pf4_addpesticides [v3]
nhapexclude_nonpt_pf4_addpesticides [v3]

NHAPEXCLUDE NONROAD
NHAPEXCLUDE
smkinven
nonroad
nhapexclude_nonroad_pf4 [v0]
nhapexclude_nonroad_pf4 [v0]

NHAPEXCLUDE ptnonipm
NHAPEXCLUDE
smkinven
ptnonipm
nhapexclude_ptnonipm_include_30125010 [v0]
nhapexclude_ptnonipm_include_30125010 [v0]

NHAPEXCLUDE seca_c3
NHAPEXCLUDE
smkinven
seca_c3
nhapexclude_nothing [v0]
nhapexclude_nothing [v0]

nonpoint & nonroad surrogate xref
AGREF
Grdmat

amgref_us_can_mex_revised [v11]
amgref_us_can_mex_revised [v13]

onroad surrogate xref default
MGREF
Grdmat

amgref_us_can_mex_revised [v11]
amgref_us_can_mex_revised [v13]

ORIS Description
ORISDESC
smkinven

orisdesc [v0]
orisdesc [v0]

SCC descriptions
SCCDESC
smkinven

sccdesc_pf31 [v12]
sccdesc_pf31 [v12]

SIC descriptions
SICDESC
Smkreport

sic_desc [v0]
sic_desc [v0]

Smkmerge representative dates files
MRGDATE_FILES
Run script

merge_dates_2005 (/garnet/oaqps) [v0]
merge_dates_2005 (/garnet/oaqps) [v0]

Speciation profiles additional for SMOKE-MOVES
GSPROTMP_O
Spcmat
onroad
gspro_new_for_smoke-moves [v0]
gspro_new_for_smoke-moves [v0]

Speciation profiles Canada PM
GSPROTMP_J
Spcmat
othpt
gspro_pm25_canada_2006_point [v0]
gspro_pm25_canada_2006_point [v0]

Speciation profiles for biogenics
GSPROTMP_K
Spcmat
beis
gspro_biogenics [v1]
gspro_biogenics [v1]

Speciation profiles for HG
GSPROTMP_H
Spcmat

gspro_hg [v2]
gspro_hg [v2]

Speciation profiles for INTEGRATE HAPS
GSPROTMP_F
Spcmat

gspro_integratehaps_cb05_tx_pf4 [v1]
gspro_integratehaps_cb05_tx_pf4 [v1]

Speciation profiles for NONHAPTOG
GSPROTMP_E
Spcmat

gspro_nonhaptog_cb05 [v3]
gspro_nonhaptog_cb05 [v3]

Speciation profiles for NONHAPTOG w/ETOH integration
GSPROTMP_E
Spcmat
onroad
gspro_nonhaptog_cb05_eprofiles [v0]
gspro_nonhaptog_cb05_eprofiles [v0]

Speciation profiles for NONHAPTOG w/ETOH integration
GSPROTMP_E
Spcmat
nonpt
gspro_nonhaptog_cb05_eprofiles [v0]
gspro_nonhaptog_cb05_eprofiles [v0]

Speciation profiles for NOX
GSPROTMP_G
Spcmat

gspro_nox_hono_pf4 [v0]
gspro_nox_hono_pf4 [v0]

Speciation profiles for PM2.5
GSPROTMP_C 
Spcmat

gspro_pm25 [v2]
gspro_pm25 [v2]

Speciation profiles for SO2-SULF
GSPROTMP_B 
Spcmat

gspro_sulf [v1]
gspro_sulf [v1]

Speciation profiles for TOG
GSPROTMP_D 
Spcmat

gspro_tog_cb05_soa [v3]
gspro_tog_cb05_soa [v3]

Speciation profiles Other VOC HAP
GSPROTMP_M
Spcmat

gspro_other_hapvoc_no_benz-benz [v0]
gspro_other_hapvoc_no_benz-benz [v0]

Speciation profiles speciated VOC
GSPROTMP_I
Spcmat

gspro_speciated_voc [v0]
gspro_speciated_voc [v0]

Speciation profiles static
GSPROTMP_A 
Spcmat

gspro_static_cmaq [v12]
gspro_static_cmaq [v12]

Speciation xref  CAP  static  
GSREFTMP_A
Spcmat

gsref_static_cap_pf4 [v1]
gsref_static_cap_pf4 [v1]

Speciation xref for Canada PM
GSREFTMP_N
Spcmat
othpt
gsref_pm25_canada_2006_point [v3]
gsref_pm25_canada_2006_point [v3]

Speciation xref for Integrate-HAPs  static  
GSREFTMP_J
Spcmat

gsref_static_integratehap_emv4 [v2]
gsref_static_integratehap_emv4 [v2]

Speciation xref for NONHAPVOC, not year-specific
GSREFTMP_H
Spcmat
nonpt

gsref_nonhapvoc_general_hdghg [v3]

Speciation xref for NONHAPVOC, not year-specific
GSREFTMP_H
Spcmat

gsref_nonhapvoc_general_hdghg [v2]
gsref_nonhapvoc_general_hdghg [v2]

Speciation xref for NONHAPVOC, year-specific
GSREFTMP_I
Spcmat

gsref_nonhapvoc_2005_hdghg [v2]
gsref_nonhapvoc_2017_ref_tier3 [v1]

Speciation xref for NONHAPVOC, year-specific
GSREFTMP_I
Spcmat
nonpt

gsref_nonhapvoc_2017_ref_tier3 [v2]

Speciation xref for PM2.5 diesel SCCs but do not produce diesel
GSREFTMP_D
Spcmat

gsref_no_dieselpm [v3]
gsref_no_dieselpm [v3]

Speciation xref for PM2.5 non-diesel SCCs
GSREFTMP_E
Spcmat

gsref_pm25_pf4_nondiesel [v14]
gsref_pm25_pf4_nondiesel [v14]

Speciation xref for SMOKE-MOVES not TOG
GSREFTMP_P
Spcmat
onroad
gsref_new_for_smoke-moves_otherthantog [v0]
gsref_new_for_smoke-moves_otherthantog [v0]

Speciation xref for SMOKE-MOVES TOG
GSREFTMP_O
Spcmat
onroad
gsref_new_for_smoke-moves_tog [v1]
gsref_2017_for_smoke_moves_tog [v1]

Speciation xref for SO2-SULF
GSREFTMP_B
Spcmat

gsref_sulf [v0]
gsref_sulf [v0]

Speciation xref for speciated VOC
GSREFTMP_M
Spcmat
onroad
gsref_speciated_voc [v2]
gsref_speciated_voc [v2]

Speciation xref for speciated VOC
GSREFTMP_M
Spcmat
othpt
gsref_speciated_voc [v2]
gsref_speciated_voc [v2]

Speciation xref for VOC, not year-specific
GSREFTMP_F
Spcmat

gsref_voc_general_hdghg [v3]
gsref_voc_general_hdghg [v3]

Speciation xref for VOC, year-specific
GSREFTMP_G
Spcmat

gsref_voc_2005_hdghg [v4]
gsref_voc_2017_ref_tier3 [v3]

Speciation xref  HG
GSREFTMP_K
Spcmat

gsref_hg [v8]
gsref_hg [v8]

Speciation xref static NOX --  HONO for mobile sources
GSREFTMP_C
Spcmat

gsref_static_nox_hono_pf4 [v6]
gsref_static_nox_hono_pf4 [v6]

Stack replacement
PSTK
smkinven

pstk [v0]
pstk [v0]

surrogate descriptions (works for all grids)
SRGDESC
Grdmat
othon
srgdesc_36km_revised [v1]
srgdesc_36km_revised [v1]

surrogate descriptions (works for all grids)
SRGDESC
Grdmat

srgdesc_12km [v2]
srgdesc_12km [v2]

surrogate descriptions (works for all grids)
SRGDESC
Grdmat
othar
srgdesc_36km_revised [v1]
srgdesc_36km_revised [v1]

Temporal profiles, all nonpoint and nonroad
ATPRO
Temporal

amptpro_2005_us_can_revised [v2]
amptpro_2005_us_can_revised [v2]

Temporal profiles, all point
PTPRO
Temporal

amptpro_2005_us_can_revised [v2]
amptpro_2005_us_can_revised [v2]

Temporal profiles, onroad default
MTPRO
Temporal

amptpro_2005_us_can_revised [v2]
amptpro_2005_us_can_revised [v2]

Temporal xref, all nonpoint and nonroad
ATREF
Temporal

amptref_v3_3_revised [v12]
amptref_v3_3_revised [v12]

Temporal xref, onroad mobile default
MTREF
Temporal

amptref_v3_3_revised [v12]
amptref_v3_3_revised [v12]

Temporal xref, othpt
PTREF
Temporal
othpt
ptref_othpt [v4]
ptref_othpt [v4]

Temporal xref, point default
PTREF
Temporal

amptref_v3_3_revised [v12]
amptref_v3_3_revised [v12]

Temporal xref, ptipm only
PTREF
Temporal
Ptipm
ptref_ptipm_us [v0]
ptref_ptipm_us [v0]

                 Table A-2.  Parameters used in the MATS cases
Parameter Name
Environment Variable
Sector
2005 Base Case
2017 Reference Case
All months across all sectors
ALL_MONTHS

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
BEIS3 version
BEIS3_VERSION
beis
                                                                           3.14
                                                                           3.14
Biogenics land area surrogate
AREA_SURROGATE_NUM
beis
                                                                            340
                                                                            340
Biogenics speciation profile code
BIOG_SPRO
beis
B10C5
B10C5
Check for duplicate sources
RAW_DUP_CHECK
ptfire
N
N
Check for duplicate sources
RAW_DUP_CHECK
ptnonipm
N
N
Check for duplicate sources
RAW_DUP_CHECK
ptipm
N
N
Check for duplicate sources
RAW_DUP_CHECK

Y
Y
Check for duplicate sources
RAW_DUP_CHECK
alm_no_c3

N
Check for duplicate sources
RAW_DUP_CHECK
nonpt

N
Check for duplicate sources
RAW_DUP_CHECK
othon
N
N
Check for duplicate sources
RAW_DUP_CHECK
othpt
N
N
Check for duplicate sources
RAW_DUP_CHECK
othar
N
N
Check stack parameters for missing
CHECK_STACKS_YN
ptfire
N
N
Convective rainfall variable for Pleim-Xiu
RC_VAR
beis
RC
RC
Count of underscores for Daily data prefix
NAMEBREAK_DAILY
ptipm
                                                                              9
                                                                             10
Custom merge output
SMKMERGE_CUSTOM_OUTPUT

Y
Y
Custom merge output - MOVES
MOVESMRG_CUSTOM_OUTPUT
onroad
Y
Y
Default surrogate code
SMK_DEFAULT_SRGID

                                                                            100
                                                                            100
Default surrogate code
SMK_DEFAULT_SRGID
afdust
                                                                            340
                                                                            340
Don't need spinup for most sectors
SPINUP_DURATION
ptipm

                                                                              0
Don't need spinup for most sectors
SPINUP_DURATION
nonpt
                                                                              0
                                                                              0
Don't need spinup for most sectors
SPINUP_DURATION
ptipm

Don't need spinup for most sectors
SPINUP_DURATION
ptnonipm
                                                                              0
                                                                              0
Don't need spinup for most sectors
SPINUP_DURATION
nonroad
                                                                              0
                                                                              0
Don't need spinup for most sectors
SPINUP_DURATION
othpt
                                                                              0
                                                                              0
Don't need spinup for most sectors
SPINUP_DURATION
seca_c3

Don't need spinup for most sectors
SPINUP_DURATION
seca_c3

                                                                              0
Don't speciate zero emission SCCs
NO_SPC_ZERO_EMIS
ptnonipm
Y
Y
Don't speciate zero emission SCCs
NO_SPC_ZERO_EMIS
nonpt
Y
Y
Don't use day-specific emission
DAY_SPECIFIC_YN
ptipm
N
N
Don't use pollutant conversion
POLLUTANT_CONVERSION
onroad
N
N
EGU daily type
EGU_TYPE

model_performance
model_performance
EMF queue options
EMF_QUEUE_OPTIONS

                                    #NAME?
                                    #NAME?
Emission rate model
SMK_EF_MODEL
onroad
MOVES
MOVES
Fill annual values
FILL_ANNUAL
nonroad
Y
Y
Fill annual values
FILL_ANNUAL

N
N
Fill annual values
FILL_ANNUAL
nonpt
Y
Y
Fire-specific plume rise calculations
FIRE_PLUME_YN
ptfire
Y
Y
Formula for Smkinven
SMKINVEN_FORMULA

PMC=PM10-PM2_5
PMC=PM10-PM2_5
Formula for Smkinven
SMKINVEN_FORMULA
ag
 
 
Formula for Smkinven
SMKINVEN_FORMULA
nonroad
EXH__PMC=EXH__PM10-EXH__PM2_5
EXH__PMC=EXH__PM10-EXH__PM2_5
Formula for Smkinven
SMKINVEN_FORMULA
onroad

Include market penetration
MRG_MARKETPEN_YN

N
N
I/O API Sphere type
IOAPI_ISPH

                                                                             19
                                                                             19
Laypoint uses Elevpoint to set sources for plume rise calc
SMK_SPECELEV_YN

Y
Y
Match full SCCs
FULLSCC_ONLY

Y
Y
Maximum errors printed
SMK_MAXERROR

                                                                          10000
                                                                          10000
Maximum warnings printed
SMK_MAXWARNING

                                                                             10
                                                                             10
MCIP name abbreviation
MCIPNAME

MCIP_v3.4beta4
MCIP_v3.4beta4
Merge by day
MRG_BYDAY
ptnonipm
P
P
Merge by day
MRG_BYDAY
seca_c3
P
P
Merge by day
MRG_BYDAY
othpt
P
P
Merge type
M_TYPE

Mwdss
mwdss
Merge type
M_TYPE
ptipm
All
all
Merge type
M_TYPE
ptnonipm
Mwdss
mwdss
Merge type
M_TYPE
ptfire
All
all
Merge type
M_TYPE
avefire
Aveday
aveday
Merge type
M_TYPE
ag
Aveday
aveday
Merge type
M_TYPE
afdust
Week
week
Merge type
M_TYPE
onroad
All
all
Merge type
M_TYPE
nonptfire
Aveday
aveday
Merge type
M_TYPE
othpt
Mwdss
mwdss
Merge type
M_TYPE
othon
Week
week
Merge type
M_TYPE
seca_c3
Aveday
aveday
Merge type
M_TYPE
beis
All
all
Model output format
OUTPUT_FORMAT

$EMF_AQM
$EMF_AQM
Nonhap Type
NONHAP_TYPE
nonpt
VOC
VOC
Nonhap Type
NONHAP_TYPE
ptnonipm
VOC
VOC
Nonhap Type
NONHAP_TYPE
avefire
VOC
VOC
Nonhap Type
NONHAP_TYPE
nonroad
VOC
VOC
Nonhap Type
NONHAP_TYPE
onroad
TOG
TOG
Nonhap Type
NONHAP_TYPE
alm_no_c3
VOC
VOC
Nonhap Type
NONHAP_TYPE
seca_c3
VOC
VOC
Number of emissions layers
SMK_EMLAYS

                                                                             10
                                                                             10
Ocean Chlorine filename extension
EXT
mrggrid
.ncf
.ncf
Output county biogenic totals
BIO_COUNTY_SUMS
beis
Y
Y
Output county/SCC totals
MRG_REPSRC_YN
onroad
Y
Y
Output county totals
MRG_REPCNY_YN

N
N
Output county totals
MRG_REPCNY_YN

Y

Output county totals
MRG_REPCNY_YN
onroad
Y
Y
Output SCC totals
MRG_REPSCC_YN
onroad
Y
Y
Output state biogenic totals
BIO_STATE_SUMS
beis
Y
Y
Output state totals
MRG_REPSTA_YN

Y
Y
Output state totals
MRG_REPSTA_YN

N

Output state totals
MRG_REPSTA_YN
onroad
N
N
Output time zone
OUTZONE

                                                                              0
                                                                              0
Platform name
PLATFORM

v4.3
v4.3
Pleim-Xiu land surface used?
PX_VERSION
beis
Y
Y
Plume-in-grid method
SMK_PING_METHOD

                                                                              0
                                                                              0
Pressure  variable name
PRES_VAR
beis
PRSFC
PRSFC
PTDAY file name case
DAILY_CASE
ptipm
2005ck
2005ck
Radiation/cloud variable name
RAD_VAR
beis
RGRND
RGRND
Renormalize temporal profiles
RENORM_TPROF

Y
Y
Report default profiles used
REPORT_DEFAULTS

Y
Y
Run holidays
RUN_HOLIDAYS
ag
N
N
Run holidays
RUN_HOLIDAYS
avefire
N
N
Run holidays
RUN_HOLIDAYS

Y
Y
Run holidays
RUN_HOLIDAYS
seca_c3
N
N
Run holidays
RUN_HOLIDAYS
alm_no_c3
N
N
Run holidays
RUN_HOLIDAYS
othon
N
N
Run holidays
RUN_HOLIDAYS
othpt
N
N
Run holidays
RUN_HOLIDAYS
othar
N
N
Run holidays
RUN_HOLIDAYS
nonptfire
N
N
Run holidays
RUN_HOLIDAYS
afdust
Y
Y
Run in inline mode
INLINE_MODE

Both
both
Run in inline mode SECA_C3
INLINE_MODE
seca_c3
Only
only
Run script for Smkmerge annual totals
RUN_PYTHON_ANNUAL

Y
Y
Smkmerge reports units
MRG_TOTOUT_UNIT

tons/dy

SMOKE-MOVES processing mode
MOVES_TYPE
onroad
RPD
RPD
SMOKE-MOVES processing mode
MOVES_TYPE
onroad
RPP
RPP
SMOKE-MOVES processing mode
MOVES_TYPE
onroad
RPV
RPV
Soil moisture variable for Pleim-Xiu
SOIM1_VAR
beis
SOIM1
SOIM1
Soil temperature variable for Pleim-Xiu
SOILT_VAR
beis
SOIT1
SOIT1
Soil type variable for Pleim-Xiu
ISLTYP_VAR
beis
SLTYP
SLTYP
Sort inventory EVs by letter
SORT_LIST_EVS
othpt
Y
Y
Sort inventory EVs by letter
SORT_LIST_EVS
avefire
Y
Y
Sort inventory EVs by letter
SORT_LIST_EVS
ptipm
Y
Y
Speciation type name
SPC

$EMF_SPC
$EMF_SPC
Spinup Duration
SPINUP_DURATION

                                                                             10
                                                                             10
Spinup Duration
SPINUP_DURATION

                                                                              3
                                                                              3
Temperature variable name
TMPR_VAR
beis
TEMP2
TEMP2
Temperature variable name - MOVES
TVARNAME
onroad
TEMP2
TEMP2
Temporal type
L_TYPE

Mwdss
mwdss
Temporal type
L_TYPE
ptipm
All
all
Temporal type
L_TYPE
ptfire
All
all
Temporal type
L_TYPE
avefire
Aveday
aveday
Temporal type
L_TYPE
ag
Aveday
aveday
Temporal type
L_TYPE
afdust
Week
week
Temporal type
L_TYPE
onroad
All
all
Temporal type
L_TYPE
nonptfire
Aveday
aveday
Temporal type
L_TYPE
othon
Week
week
Temporal type
L_TYPE
seca_c3
Aveday
aveday
Temporal type
L_TYPE
beis
All
all
Use area-to-point
SMK_ARTOPNT_YN
alm_no_c3
Y
Y
Use area-to-point
SMK_ARTOPNT_YN
nonpt
Y
Y
Use area-to-point
SMK_ARTOPNT_YN
nonroad
Y
Y
Use average day emissions
SMK_AVEDAY_YN

N
N
Use day-specific emission
DAY_SPECIFIC_YN
ptipm
Y
Y
Use day-specific emission
DAY_SPECIFIC_YN
ptfire
Y
Y
Use hourly plume rise data
HOURLY_FIRE_YN
ptfire
Y
Y
Use NHAPEXCLUDE file
SMK_PROCESS_HAPS
alm_no_c3
PARTIAL
PARTIAL
Use NHAPEXCLUDE file
SMK_PROCESS_HAPS
seca_c3
ALL
ALL
Use NHAPEXCLUDE file
SMK_PROCESS_HAPS
onroad
ALL
ALL
Use NHAPEXCLUDE file
SMK_PROCESS_HAPS
nonroad
PARTIAL
PARTIAL
Use NHAPEXCLUDE file
SMK_PROCESS_HAPS
avefire
NONE
NONE
Use NHAPEXCLUDE file
SMK_PROCESS_HAPS
ptnonipm
PARTIAL
PARTIAL
Use NHAPEXCLUDE file
SMK_PROCESS_HAPS
nonpt
PARTIAL
PARTIAL
Use pollutant conversion
POLLUTANT_CONVERSION

Y
Y
Western hemisphere?
WEST_HSPHERE

Y
Y
Write zero emissions
WRITE_ANN_ZERO
ptfire
Y
Y
Write zero emissions
WRITE_ANN_ZERO
ptipm
Y
Y
Zip merged model-ready files
GZIP_OUTPUTS
mrggrid
Y
Y
Base Year

                                                                           2005
                                                                           2005
Downstream Model

CMAQ v4.7 N5c
CMAQ v4.7 N5c
End Date & Time

                                                               12/31/2005 23:59
                                                               12/31/2005 23:59
Future Year

                                                                              0
                                                                           2017
Last Modified Date

                                                                        13:57.7
                                                                        22:39.1
Meteorological Year

                                                                           2005
                                                                           2005
Model

SMOKE
SMOKE
Modeling Region

National
National
# of emission layers

                                                                             14
                                                                             14
# of met layers

                                                                             14
                                                                             14
Speciation

cmaq_cb05_tx
cmaq_cb05_tx
Start Date

                                                                  1/1/2005 0:00
                                                                  1/1/2005 0:00
Version

                                                                            2.7
                                                                            2.7

                                  APPENDIX B
                                       
Inventory Data Files Used for Each MATS Modeling Case  -  SMOKE Input Inventory Datasets

The emissions inventory data files used for the MATS cases are shown in Table B-1. The Input name column gives a brief designator for the inventory.  The Sector column specifies the modeling sector for the inventory.  The remaining columns show the data set name and version used in the 2005 base case and 2017 reference cases.  The datasets used for the 2017 control case are identical to the 2017 reference case, except for the following replacements: 

   * Inventory ptipm CAP used PTINV_EPA410FINAL_BC_226_summer_2015_01SEP2011_ORL [v0], 
   * Inventory ptipm daily data (CEM sources) used ptday_ptipm_cem_2017ct_ref_mats_05b [v0], and 
   * Inventory ptipm daily data (nonCEM sources) used ptday_ptipm_noncem_2017ct_ref_mats_05b [v0].

To match the Datasets and Versions listed in this table to actual data files, combine the Dataset name and the version number in the following pattern: <Dataset Name>_<Date>_<Version number>.txt, where <Date> is the last date of change for that version and will have a unique value for the combination of Dataset Name and Version number.

Table B-1.  List of inventory data sets associated with the MATS modeling cases.
Input name
Sector
2005 Base Case
2017 Reference Case
Inventory afdust CAP
afdust
afdust_2002ad_xportfrac [v0]
afdust_2017ct_ref [v0]
Inventory ag CAP
Ag
ag_cap2002nei [v0]
ag_cap2017ct_ref [v0]
Inventory alm_no_c3 CAP
alm_no_c3
lm_no_c3_cap2002v3 [v1]
lm_no_c3_cap2017ct_lowE [v0]
Inventory alm_no_c3 HAP
alm_no_c3
lm_no_c3_hap2002v4 [v0]
lm_no_c3_hap2017ct_lowE [v0]
Inventory avefire CAP
avefire
avefire_2002ce [v0]
avefire_2002ce [v0]
Inventory avefire HAP
avefire
avefire_2002_hap [v0]
avefire_2002_hap [v0]
Inventory C1/C2 additional CAP/HAP 
alm_no_c3

c1c2_additional_2017ct_ref_caphap_25jul2011 [v0]
Inventory fire list
ptfire
ptfire_2005ag_tox [v0]
ptfire_2005ag_tox [v0]
Inventory nonpt CAP and HAP (PFC only)
nonpt
pfc_2002_caphap_wETOH [v1]
pfc_2017_ref_caphap_23aug2011 [v0]
Inventory nonpt CAP/HAP Cellulosic Biodiesel plants for Tier3
nonpt

cellulosic_ETOH_Biodiesel_2017ct_ref_caphap_29jul2011 [v0]
Inventory nonpt CAP/HAP Ethanol Transport for Tier3
nonpt

Ethanol_transport_vapor_2017ct_ref_caphap_25jul2011 [v0]
Inventory nonpt CAP (no PFC, no refueling)
nonpt
nonpt_pf4_cap_nopfc [v6]
nonpt_pf4_cap_nopfc_2017ct_ref [v0]
Inventory nonpt CAP:  TX and OK Oil and Gas
nonpt
nonpt_cap_2005_TCEQ_Oklahoma_OilGas [v0]
nonpt_cap_2017ct_lowE_TCEQ_Oklahoma_OilGas [v0]
Inventory nonpt CAP:  WRAP Oil and Gas
nonpt
nonpt_cap_2005_WRAP_OilGas [v0]
nonpt_cap_2018PhaseII_WRAP_OilGas [v0]
Inventory nonpt HAP (no PFC, no refueling)
nonpt
nonpt_pf4_hap_nopfc_nobafmpesticidesplus [v4]
nonpt_pf4_hap_nopfc_nobafmpesticidesplus_2017ct_ref [v0]
Inventory nonpt Refueling from MOVES, April
nonpt
rfl_moves_wETOH_2005ct_apr_18may2011 [v0]
rfl_moves_wETOH_2017ct_ref_apr_27jul2011 [v0]
Inventory nonpt Refueling from MOVES, August
nonpt
rfl_moves_wETOH_2005ct_aug_18may2011 [v0]
rfl_moves_wETOH_2017ct_ref_aug_27jul2011 [v0]
Inventory nonpt Refueling from MOVES, December
nonpt
rfl_moves_wETOH_2005ct_dec_18may2011 [v0]
rfl_moves_wETOH_2017ct_ref_dec_27jul2011 [v0]
Inventory nonpt Refueling from MOVES, February
nonpt
rfl_moves_wETOH_2005ct_feb_18may2011 [v0]
rfl_moves_wETOH_2017ct_ref_feb_27jul2011 [v0]
Inventory nonpt Refueling from MOVES, January
nonpt
rfl_moves_wETOH_2005ct_jan_18may2011 [v0]
rfl_moves_wETOH_2017ct_ref_jan_27jul2011 [v0]
Inventory nonpt Refueling from MOVES, July
nonpt
rfl_moves_wETOH_2005ct_jul_18may2011 [v0]
rfl_moves_wETOH_2017ct_ref_jul_27jul2011 [v0]
Inventory nonpt Refueling from MOVES, June
nonpt
rfl_moves_wETOH_2005ct_jun_18may2011 [v0]
rfl_moves_wETOH_2017ct_ref_jun_27jul2011 [v0]
Inventory nonpt Refueling from MOVES, March
nonpt
rfl_moves_wETOH_2005ct_mar_18may2011 [v0]
rfl_moves_wETOH_2017ct_ref_mar_27jul2011 [v0]
Inventory nonpt Refueling from MOVES, May
nonpt
rfl_moves_wETOH_2005ct_may_18may2011 [v0]
rfl_moves_wETOH_2017ct_ref_may_27jul2011 [v0]
Inventory nonpt Refueling from MOVES, November
nonpt
rfl_moves_wETOH_2005ct_nov_18may2011 [v0]
rfl_moves_wETOH_2017ct_ref_nov_27jul2011 [v0]
Inventory nonpt Refueling from MOVES, October
nonpt
rfl_moves_wETOH_2005ct_oct_18may2011 [v0]
rfl_moves_wETOH_2017ct_ref_oct_27jul2011 [v0]
Inventory nonpt Refueling from MOVES, September
nonpt
rfl_moves_wETOH_2005ct_sep_18may2011 [v0]
rfl_moves_wETOH_2017ct_ref_sep_27jul2011 [v0]
Inventory nonroad cap+CMAQ-lite HAPs US, incl Calif April
nonroad
nonroad_cmaq_lite_2005ct_apr_19may2011 [v0]
nonroad_cmaq_lite_2017ct_ref_apr_20jul2011 [v0]
Inventory nonroad cap+CMAQ-lite HAPs US, incl Calif August
nonroad
nonroad_cmaq_lite_2005ct_aug_19may2011 [v0]
nonroad_cmaq_lite_2017ct_ref_aug_20jul2011 [v0]
Inventory nonroad cap+CMAQ-lite HAPs US, incl Calif December
nonroad
nonroad_cmaq_lite_2005ct_dec_19may2011 [v0]
nonroad_cmaq_lite_2017ct_ref_dec_20jul2011 [v0]
Inventory nonroad cap+CMAQ-lite HAPs US, incl Calif February
nonroad
nonroad_cmaq_lite_2005ct_feb_19may2011 [v0]
nonroad_cmaq_lite_2017ct_ref_feb_20jul2011 [v0]
Inventory nonroad cap+CMAQ-lite HAPs US, incl Calif January
nonroad
nonroad_cmaq_lite_2005ct_jan_19may2011 [v0]
nonroad_cmaq_lite_2017ct_ref_jan_20jul2011 [v0]
Inventory nonroad cap+CMAQ-lite HAPs US, incl Calif July
nonroad
nonroad_cmaq_lite_2005ct_jul_19may2011 [v0]
nonroad_cmaq_lite_2017ct_ref_jul_20jul2011 [v0]
Inventory nonroad cap+CMAQ-lite HAPs US, incl Calif June
nonroad
nonroad_cmaq_lite_2005ct_jun_19may2011 [v0]
nonroad_cmaq_lite_2017ct_ref_jun_20jul2011 [v0]
Inventory nonroad cap+CMAQ-lite HAPs US, incl Calif March
nonroad
nonroad_cmaq_lite_2005ct_mar_19may2011 [v0]
nonroad_cmaq_lite_2017ct_ref_mar_20jul2011 [v0]
Inventory nonroad cap+CMAQ-lite HAPs US, incl Calif May
nonroad
nonroad_cmaq_lite_2005ct_may_19may2011 [v0]
nonroad_cmaq_lite_2017ct_ref_may_20jul2011 [v0]
Inventory nonroad cap+CMAQ-lite HAPs US, incl Calif November
nonroad
nonroad_cmaq_lite_2005ct_nov_19may2011 [v0]
nonroad_cmaq_lite_2017ct_ref_nov_20jul2011 [v0]
Inventory nonroad cap+CMAQ-lite HAPs US, incl Calif October
nonroad
nonroad_cmaq_lite_2005ct_oct_19may2011 [v0]
nonroad_cmaq_lite_2017ct_ref_oct_20jul2011 [v0]
Inventory nonroad cap+CMAQ-lite HAPs US, incl Calif September
nonroad
nonroad_cmaq_lite_2005ct_sep_19may2011 [v0]
nonroad_cmaq_lite_2017ct_ref_sep_20jul2011 [v0]
Inventory onroad RPD
onroad
VMT_tier3_2005 [v0]
VMT_tier3_2017_ref_cntl [v3]
Inventory onroad RPD
onroad
VMT_tier3_2005 [v0]
VMT_tier3_2017_ref_cntl [v3]
Inventory onroad RPD
onroad
VMT_tier3_2005 [v0]
VMT_tier3_2017_ref_cntl [v3]
Inventory onroad RPD
onroad
SPEED_tier3 [v0]
SPEED_tier3 [v0]
Inventory onroad RPD
onroad
VMT_tier3_2005 [v0]
VMT_tier3_2017_ref_cntl [v3]
Inventory onroad RPP
onroad
VPOP_tier3_2005 [v0]
VPOP_tier3_2017 [v0]
Inventory onroad RPV
onroad
VPOP_tier3_2005 [v0]
VPOP_tier3_2017 [v0]
Inventory othar nonpoint CAP Mexico border states
othar
nonpt mexico border1999 [v0]
nonpt mexico border1999 [v0]
Inventory othar nonpoint CAP Mexico interior states
othar
nonpt mexico interior1999 [v0]
nonpt mexico interior1999 [v0]
Inventory othar nonroad CAP Mexico border states
othar
nonroad mexico border1999 [v0]
nonroad mexico border1999 [v0]
Inventory othar nonroad CAP Mexico interior states
othar
nonroad mexico interior1999 [v0]
nonroad mexico interior1999 [v0]
Inventory othon CAP Mexico border states
othon
onroad mexico border1999 [v0]
onroad mexico border1999 [v0]
Inventory othon CAP Mexico interior states
othon
onroad mexico interior1999 [v0]
onroad mexico interior1999 [v0]
Inventory othon CAP onroad Canada
othon
canada_onroad_cap_2006 [v0]
canada_onroad_cap_2006 [v0]
Inventory othpt CAP Mexico border states
othpt
mexico_border99 [v1]
mexico_border99 [v1]
Inventory othpt CAP Mexico interior states
othpt
mexico_interior99 [v0]
mexico_interior99 [v0]
Inventory othpt CAP offshore
othpt
ptnonipm_offshore_oil_cap2005v2_20nov2008 [v0]
ptnonipm_offshore_oil_cap2005v2_20nov2008 [v0]
Inventory ptipm CAP
ptipm
ptipm_2005cs_cap_27dec2010.txt [v1]

Inventory ptipm CAP
ptipm

PTINV_EPA410FINAL_BC_58_summer_2020_21MAY2011_ORL [v0]
Inventory ptipm CAP
ptipm

Inventory ptipm daily data (CEM sources)
ptipm
ptday_ptipm_caphap_cem_2005cs_05b (/garnet/oaqps) [v0]
ptday_ptipm_caphap_cem_2017ct_05b [v0]
Inventory ptipm daily data (nonCEM sources)
ptipm
ptday_ptipm_caphap_noncem_2005cs_05b (/garnet/oaqps) [v0]
ptday_ptipm_caphap_noncem_2017ct_05b [v0]
Inventory ptipm HAP
ptipm
ptipm_2005cs_hap_27dec2010.txt [v0]

Inventory ptnonipm CAP
ptnonipm
ptnonipm_xportfrac_cap2005v2_2005cs_orl [v7]
ptnonipm_xportfrac_cap2017ct_ref [v0]
Inventory ptnonipm CAPHAP biodiesel plant additions forTier3
ptnonipm

biodiesel_plants_2017ct_ref_caphap_29jul2011 [v0]
Inventory ptnonipm CAPHAP ethanol plant additions forTier3
ptnonipm
ethanol_plants_2005ct_2017ct_lowE_caphap [v0]
ethanol_plants_2017ct_ref_caphap_19jul2011 [v0]
Inventory ptnonipm cement capHg
ptnonipm

ptnonipm_capHG_cementISIS_2016cr_16AUG2010 [v0]
Inventory ptnonipm HAP
ptnonipm
ptnonipm_hap2005v2_2005cs_orl [v6]
ptnonipm_hap2017ct_ref [v0]
Inventory rail additional CAP/HAP for Tier3 ref/ctl
alm_no_c3

rail_additional_2017ct_ref_caphap_26jul2011 [v0]
Inventory seca_c3 BAF HAPs Canada
seca_c3
eca_imo_CANADA_SCC_fix_vochaps_2005_09DEC2010 [v0]
eca_imo_CANADA_SCC_fix_vochaps_2017 [v0]
Inventory seca_c3 BAF HAPs US includes EEZ and offshore FIPS
seca_c3
eca_imo_fixFIPS_US_andSCC_fix_vochaps_2005_09DEC2010 [v0]
eca_imo_fixFIPS_US_andSCC_fix_vochaps_2017 [v0]
Inventory seca_c3 CAP Canada
seca_c3
eca_imo_CANADA_SCC_fix_caps_2005_09DEC2010 [v0]
eca_imo_CANADA_SCC_fix_caps_2017 [v0]
Inventory seca_c3 CAP US + EEZ + Offshore non-Canada
seca_c3
eca_imo_fixFIPS_US_wDE_andSCC_fix_caps_2005_09DEC2010 [v0]
eca_imo_fixFIPS_US_wDE_andSCC_fix_caps_2017 [v0]
ORL Nonpoint Inventory - Afdust Canada 2006
othar
canada_afdust_xportfrac_cap_2006 [v0]
canada_afdust_xportfrac_cap_2006 [v0]
ORL Nonpoint Inventory - Ag Canada 2006
othar
canada_ag_cap_2006 [v0]
canada_ag_cap_2006 [v0]
ORL Nonpoint Inventory - Aircraft Canada 2006
othar
canada_aircraft_cap_2006 [v0]
canada_aircraft_cap_2006 [v0]
ORL Nonpoint Inventory - Commercial Marine Canada 2006
othar
canada_marine_cap_2006 [v0]
canada_marine_cap_2006 [v0]
ORL Nonpoint Inventory - Nonroad Canada 2006
othar
canada_offroad_cap_2006 [v0]
canada_offroad_cap_2006 [v0]
ORL Nonpoint Inventory - Oarea Canada 2006
othar
canada_oarea_cap_2006 [v3]
canada_oarea_cap_2006 [v3]
ORL Nonpoint Inventory - Rail Canada 2006
othar
canada_rail_cap_2006 [v0]
canada_rail_cap_2006 [v0]
ORL Point Inventory - Point 2006
othpt
canada_point_2006_orl [v2]
canada_point_2006_orl [v2]
ORL Point Inventory - Point CB5 2006
othpt
canada_point_cb5_2006_orl [v0]
canada_point_cb5_2006_orl [v0]
ORL Point Inventory - Upstream Oil & Gas 2006
othpt
canada_point_uog_2006_orl [v0]
canada_point_uog_2006_orl [v0]
                                        
  

	Appendix C	
                                       
Summary of MATS Rule 2017 Base Case Non-EGU Control Programs, Closures and Projections

Lists of control, closure and projection packet datasets used to create MATS year 2017 base case inventories from the 2005 MATS base case are provided in Tables C-1 and C-2.
Table C-1.  Datasets used to create MATS 2017 reference case inventories for non-EGU point sources
Name
Type
Dataset
Version
Description
CLOSURES LotusNotes, ABCG, plus Timin 2016cr
Plant Closure
CLOSURES_LotusNotes_Linda_Timin_2016cr_23AUG2010
                                                                              1
Plant and unit closures identified through EPA review.
CLOSURES TR1 comments and consent decrees 2014cs
Plant Closure
CLOSURES_TR1_2014cs_01FEB2011
                                                                              0
Plant and unit closures through 2014 identified as a result of Transport Rule comments.
CLOSURES cement ISIS 2013 policy
Plant Closure
CLOSURES_cementISIS_2016cr_17AUG2010
                                                                              1
Cement plant and unit closures identified via the ISIS 2013 policy case.
closures: 2005 to 2012ck
Plant Closure
CLOSURES_2005ck_to_2012ck_CoST_format
                                                                              0
Plant and unit closures identified 2008 or before.
CONTROL ADDITIONAL OECA 2005cr to 2016cr
Control
CONTROLS_additional_NEIpf4_OECA_2005cr_2016cr_29JUL2010
                                                                              1
Controls that implement OECA consent decrees.
CONTROL REPLACE DOJ 2005cr to 2016cr
Control
CONTROLS_replacement_NEIpf4_DOJ_2005cr_2016cr_02AUG2010.txt
                                                                              0
Controls resulting from the 2002v3 DOJ Texas settlement.
CONTROL REPLACE HWI 2005cr to 2016cr
Control
CONTROLS_replacement_NEIpf4_HWI_2005cr_2016cr_02AUG2010.txt
                                                                              1
Hazardous Waste Incinerator controls for CAPs and Haps carried over from 2002v31.
CONTROL REPLACE IndustrialBoiler nonMACT 2005cr to 2016cr
Control
CONTROLS_replacement_IndBoilers_nonMACT_by2008_20AUG2010
                                                                              0
Industrial boiler controls not related to application of the MACT but derived from the Boiler MACT ICR database dated 4/30/10.
CONTROL REPLACE LMWC 2005cr to 2016cr
Control
CONTROLS_replacement_NEIpf4_LMWC_2005cr_2016cr_02AUG2010.txt
                                                                              0
Controls for large municipal combustors carried over from 2002v31.
CONTROL REPLACE MACT 2005cr to 2016cr
Control
CONTROLS_replacement_NEIpf4_MACT_2005cr_2016cr_02AUG2010.txt
                                                                              0
MACT controls carried over from 2002v3 and updated as appropriate.
CONTROL REPLACE NY SIP 2005cr to 2016cr
Control
CONTROLS_replacement_NYSIP_O3_SCC_2016cr_26AUG2010
                                                                              0
Controls that reflect enforceable controls for NOx and VOC from the New York ozone SIP.
CONTROL REPLACE Refineries 2005cr to 2016cr
Control
CONTROLS_replacement_NEIpf4_refineries_2005cr_2016cr_02AUG2010.txt
                                                                              1
Controls for refineries specified by EPA expert refinery staff.
CONTROL RICE 2016cr_05b
Control
CONTROLS_replacement_RICE_2016cr_21SEP2010
                                                                              1
Controls for 2014 and 2016 that represent three separate RICE NESHAPs
CONTROL RICE SO2 2014cs_05b
Control
CONTROLS_replacement_RICE_SO2_2014cs_05JAN2011
                                                                              1
SO2 reductions from the Ultra-low Sulfur Diesel requirement for CI engines
CONTROL SULF rules:  ME, NY, NJ 2017 ONLY
Control
CONTROLS_SULF_rules_2017only_03FEB2011
                                                                              0
SO2 reductions due to state sulfur content rules for fuel oil.
CONTROL St Gobain and LaFarge 2017
Control
CONTROLS_rep_Lafarge_StGobain_2017cs_25JAN2011.txt
                                                                              0
Controls for NOX, SO2, PM., and HCl resulting from Saint Gobain and Lafarge consent decrees
CONTROL TR1 Final CONTROL packet: 2017
Control
CONTROLS_TR1_2017
                                                                              0
Controls for TCEQ oil and gas and non-ISIS related cement controls.
CONTROL TR1 Final consent decrees 20XX
Control
CONTROLS_additional_TR1final_consent_decrees_2005cs_to_20XXcs.csv
                                                                              0
Controls related to consent decrees identified during the Transport Rule comment period. 
CONTROL cement ISIS 2013 policy
Control
CONTROLS_replacement_cementISIS_2016cr_17AUG2010
                                                                              0
Controls for cement plants based on 2013 ISIS policy case
PROJECTION 2005 to 2017 ag emissions
Projection
PROJECTION_2005_2017_ag
                                                                              0
Projection factors for agriculture based on animal population stats.
PROJECTION LMWC 2005cr to 2016cr
Projection
PROJECTION_2005cr_2016cr_LMWC_29JUL2010
                                                                              0
Projection factors for Solid and Liquid Municipal Waste Combustors.
PROJECTION TR1 comments 2005cs to 20XXcs -ptnonipm
Projection
PROJECTION_2005cs_20XX_TR1_ptnonipm_01FEB2011
                                                                              0
Projection factors derived from Transport Rule comments.
PROJECTION aircraft 2005 to 2017 JAN2010 FAATAF
Projection
PROJECTION aircraft 2005 to 2017 JAN2010 FAATAF
                                                                              0
Projection factors for aircraft derived from the FAA Terminal Area Forecast System.
PROJECTION cement ISIS 2013 policy
Projection
PROJECTION_cementISIS_2016cr_17AUG2010
                                                                              0
Projection factors that implement the 2013 ISIS policy case for cement.
PROJECTION RWC and landfills 2005 to 2017 BAD
Projection
PROJECTION_2005_2017_RWC_landfills_BAD
                                                                              0
Projection factors for residential wood combustion
PROJECTION Tier3 Proposal 2017 low-E to 2017 REF transport BPS BTP RBT
Projection
PROJECTION_2017ct_REF_Tier3prop_transport_scalars_28jul2011
                                                                              0
Projection factors for transport of renewable fuel blends from bulk plant to storage, refinery to bulk terminal and bulk terminal to pump
PROJECTION Tier3 Proposal 2017 low-E to 2017 REF-CTL ag
Projection
PROJECTION_2017ct_REF_Tier3prop_ag_scalars_26jul2011
                                                                              0
Projection factors accounting for changes in biofuel volumes on upstream agricultural sources
PROJECTION Tier3 Proposal 2017 low-E to 2017 REF-CTL refineries
Projection
PROJECTION_2017ct_REF_Tier3prop_refinery_scalars_26jul2011
                                                                              0
Projection factors accounting for refinery process changes from renewable fuels

Table C-2. Datasets used to create MATS 2017 reference case inventories for nonpoint sources
Control Program Name
Type
Dataset
Version
Description
CONTROL REPLACE NY SIP 2005cr to 2016cr
Control
CONTROLS_replacement_NYSIP_O3_SCC_2016cr_26AUG2010
                                                                              0
Controls that reflect enforceable controls for NOx and VOC from the New York ozone SIP.
CONTROL RICE 2016cr_05b
Control
CONTROLS_replacement_RICE_2016cr_21SEP2010
                                                                              1
Controls for 2014 and 2016 that represent three separate RICE NESHAPs
CONTROL RICE SO2 2014cs_05b
Control
CONTROLS_replacement_RICE_SO2_2014cs_05JAN2011
                                                                              1
SO2 reductions from the Ultra-low Sulfur Diesel requirement for CI engines
CONTROL SULF rules:  ME, NY, NJ 2017 ONLY
Control
CONTROLS_SULF_rules_2017only_03FEB2011
                                                                              0
SO2 reductions due to state sulfur content rules for fuel oil.
CONTROL TR1 Final CONTROL packet: 2017
Control
CONTROLS_TR1_2017
                                                                              0
Controls for TCEQ oil and gas and non-ISIS related cement controls.
PROJECTION 2005 to 2017ag sector
Projection
PROJECTION_2005_2017_ag
                                                                              0
Projection factors for agriculture based on animal population stats.
PROJECTION RWC and landfills 2005 to 2017 BAD
Projection
PROJECTION_2005_2017_RWC_landfills_BAD
                                                                              0
Projection factors for residential wood combustion and landfills.
PROJECTION aircraft 2005 to 2017 JAN2010 FAATAF
Projection
PROJECTION aircraft 2005 to 2017 JAN2010 FAATAF
                                                                              0
Projection factors for aircraft derived from the FAA Terminal Area Forecast System.
PROJECTION Tier3 Proposal 2017 low-E to 2017 REF transport BPS BTP RBT
Projection
PROJECTION_2017ct_REF_Tier3prop_transport_scalars_28jul2011
                                                                              0
Projection factors for transport of renewable fuel blends from bulk plant to storage, refinery to bulk terminal and bulk terminal to pump
PROJECTION Tier3 Proposal 2017 low-E to 2017 REF-CTL ag
Projection
PROJECTION_2017ct_REF_Tier3prop_ag_scalars_26jul2011
                                                                              0
Projection factors accounting for changes in biofuel volumes on upstream agricultural sources
PROJECTION Tier3 Proposal 2017 low-E to 2017 REF-CTL refineries
Projection
PROJECTION_2017ct_REF_Tier3prop_refinery_scalars_26jul2011
                                                                              0
Projection factors accounting for refinery process changes from renewable fuels
                                       
United States
Environmental Protection
Agency
                 Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
                        Air Quality Assessment Division
                          Research Triangle Park, NC
                                               Publication No. EPA-454/R-11-011
                                                                December, 2011