Document ID: EPA-HQ-OW-2009-0819-8120
Agency: epa
Document Type: Supporting & Related Material
Title: 
Posted Date: 2019-11-22T05:00Z

Updates in EPA617_BC_46l_No45Q

 Electricity Demand Projections (Section 3.2 in EPA Platform v6 document.
EPA617_BC_46l_No45Q has adopted the AEO 2018 electricity demand projections.  Table 3-2 and Table 3-3 present the net energy for load on a national and regional basis respectively.  Table 3-4 shows the national sum of each region's seasonal peak demand and Table 3-19 presents each region's seasonal peak demand.  Table 2-2 contains the data of the seasonal 2018 load duration curves for each model region for EPA617_46l_No45Q.  

Table 3-2 Electric Load Assumptions 
                                     Year
                     Net Energy for Load (Billions of kWh)
                                     2021
                                     4,076
                                     2023
                                     4,121
                                     2025
                                     4,167
                                     2030
                                     4,282
                                     2035
                                     4,393
                                     2040
                                     4,542
                                     2045
                                     4,692
                                     2050
                                     4,872

Table 3-3 Regional Electric Load Assumptions 
                                  IPM Region
                     Net Energy for Load (Billions of kWh)

                                     2021
                                     2023
                                     2025
                                     2030
                                     2035
                                     2040
                                     2045
                                     2050
                                   ERC_FRNT
                                       0
                                       0
                                       0
                                       0
                                       0
                                       0
                                       0
                                       0
                                   ERC_GWAY
                                       0
                                       0
                                       0
                                       0
                                       0
                                       0
                                       0
                                       0
                                   ERC_PHDL
                                       0
                                       0
                                       0
                                       0
                                       0
                                       0
                                       0
                                       0
                                   ERC_REST
                                      352
                                      360
                                      366
                                      383
                                      400
                                      419
                                      437
                                      456
                                   ERC_WEST
                                      28
                                      29
                                      29
                                      30
                                      32
                                      33
                                      35
                                      36
                                     FRCC
                                      240
                                      243
                                      247
                                      256
                                      267
                                      279
                                      292
                                      308
                                   MIS_AMSO
                                      33
                                      34
                                      35
                                      36
                                      38
                                      40
                                      41
                                      43
                                    MIS_AR
                                      39
                                      40
                                      41
                                      43
                                      45
                                      47
                                      48
                                      50
                                   MIS_D_MS
                                      23
                                      24
                                      24
                                      25
                                      26
                                      27
                                      28
                                      29
                                    MIS_IA
                                      22
                                      22
                                      22
                                      23
                                      24
                                      24
                                      25
                                      26
                                    MIS_IL
                                      46
                                      47
                                      47
                                      48
                                      50
                                      51
                                      53
                                      54
                                   MIS_INKY
                                      93
                                      94
                                      95
                                      97
                                      100
                                      103
                                      105
                                      109
                                    MIS_LA
                                      48
                                      49
                                      50
                                      52
                                      54
                                      57
                                      59
                                      61
                                    MIS_LMI
                                      102
                                      103
                                      104
                                      106
                                      108
                                      111
                                      114
                                      117
                                   MIS_MAPP
                                       8
                                       8
                                       9
                                       9
                                       9
                                       9
                                      10
                                      10
                                   MIS_MIDA
                                      30
                                      30
                                      31
                                      32
                                      32
                                      34
                                      35
                                      36
                                   MIS_MNWI
                                      90
                                      91
                                      92
                                      95
                                      98
                                      101
                                      104
                                      108
                                    MIS_MO
                                      39
                                      40
                                      40
                                      41
                                      42
                                      43
                                      45
                                      46
                                   MIS_WOTA
                                      35
                                      36
                                      36
                                      38
                                      39
                                      41
                                      43
                                      44
                                   MIS_WUMS
                                      65
                                      66
                                      67
                                      68
                                      70
                                      72
                                      74
                                      76
                                    NENG_CT
                                      30
                                      29
                                      29
                                      29
                                      29
                                      29
                                      29
                                      29
                                    NENG_ME
                                      10
                                      10
                                      10
                                      10
                                      10
                                      10
                                      10
                                      10
                                   NENGREST
                                      77
                                      76
                                      76
                                      76
                                      75
                                      75
                                      76
                                      77
                                    NY_Z_A
                                      16
                                      16
                                      16
                                      16
                                      16
                                      16
                                      16
                                      16
                                    NY_Z_B
                                      10
                                      10
                                      10
                                      10
                                      10
                                      10
                                      10
                                      10
                                 NY_Z_C&E
                                      25
                                      25
                                      24
                                      24
                                      24
                                      24
                                      25
                                      25
                                    NY_Z_D
                                       7
                                       7
                                       7
                                       6
                                       6
                                       7
                                       7
                                       7
                                    NY_Z_F
                                      12
                                      12
                                      12
                                      12
                                      12
                                      12
                                      12
                                      12
                                   NY_Z_G-I
                                      19
                                      19
                                      18
                                      18
                                      18
                                      18
                                      18
                                      19
                                    NY_Z_J
                                      47
                                      47
                                      47
                                      46
                                      45
                                      45
                                      46
                                      47
                                    NY_Z_K
                                      20
                                      20
                                      20
                                      20
                                      19
                                      20
                                      20
                                      20
                                    PJM_AP
                                      45
                                      46
                                      46
                                      48
                                      49
                                      50
                                      51
                                      53
                                   PJM_ATSI
                                      67
                                      68
                                      68
                                      70
                                      72
                                      74
                                      76
                                      78
                                   PJM_COMD
                                      98
                                      98
                                      99
                                      102
                                      104
                                      107
                                      110
                                      113
                                    PJM_Dom
                                      97
                                      99
                                      101
                                      105
                                      109
                                      114
                                      118
                                      124
                                   PJM_EMAC
                                      138
                                      139
                                      139
                                      140
                                      142
                                      145
                                      148
                                      153
                                   PJM_PENE
                                      17
                                      17
                                      17
                                      17
                                      17
                                      18
                                      18
                                      19
                                   PJM_SMAC
                                      63
                                      63
                                      64
                                      64
                                      65
                                      66
                                      68
                                      70
                                   PJM_West
                                      203
                                      205
                                      208
                                      213
                                      218
                                      224
                                      230
                                      237
                                   PJM_WMAC
                                      55
                                      55
                                      55
                                      56
                                      57
                                      58
                                      59
                                      61
                                    S_C_KY
                                      31
                                      32
                                      33
                                      34
                                      35
                                      36
                                      37
                                      39
                                    S_C_TVA
                                      173
                                      176
                                      180
                                      186
                                      192
                                      199
                                      205
                                      213
                                   S_D_AECI
                                      18
                                      18
                                      18
                                      18
                                      19
                                      19
                                      20
                                      21
                                     S_SOU
                                      238
                                      242
                                      247
                                      257
                                      265
                                      276
                                      287
                                      299
                                    S_VACA
                                      224
                                      228
                                      232
                                      242
                                      251
                                      262
                                      273
                                      285
                                   SPP_KIAM
                                       0
                                       0
                                       0
                                       0
                                       0
                                       0
                                       0
                                       0
                                     SPP_N
                                      71
                                      72
                                      73
                                      75
                                      77
                                      80
                                      82
                                      86
                                   SPP_NEBR
                                      34
                                      34
                                      35
                                      36
                                      37
                                      38
                                      39
                                      40
                                    SPP_SPS
                                      29
                                      30
                                      30
                                      31
                                      33
                                      34
                                      36
                                      37
                                   SPP_WAUE
                                      23
                                      23
                                      24
                                      24
                                      25
                                      26
                                      27
                                      27
                                   SPP_WEST
                                      129
                                      131
                                      134
                                      140
                                      146
                                      153
                                      159
                                      166
                                   WEC_BANC
                                      14
                                      14
                                      14
                                      14
                                      14
                                      14
                                      14
                                      15
                                   WEC_CALN
                                      111
                                      110
                                      109
                                      108
                                      107
                                      109
                                      111
                                      116
                                   WEC_LADW
                                      27
                                      27
                                      27
                                      26
                                      26
                                      27
                                      27
                                      28
                                   WEC_SDGE
                                      21
                                      21
                                      21
                                      21
                                      21
                                      21
                                      21
                                      22
                                    WECC_AZ
                                      91
                                      92
                                      93
                                      96
                                      100
                                      105
                                      109
                                      115
                                    WECC_CO
                                      66
                                      67
                                      69
                                      71
                                      74
                                      77
                                      81
                                      85
                                    WECC_ID
                                      22
                                      23
                                      23
                                      23
                                      23
                                      24
                                      25
                                      26
                                   WECC_IID
                                       4
                                       4
                                       4
                                       4
                                       4
                                       5
                                       5
                                       5
                                    WECC_MT
                                      13
                                      13
                                      13
                                      13
                                      13
                                      14
                                      14
                                      15
                                    WECC_NM
                                      24
                                      24
                                      24
                                      25
                                      26
                                      27
                                      29
                                      30
                                   WECC_NNV
                                      13
                                      13
                                      13
                                      13
                                      13
                                      13
                                      14
                                      14
                                   WECC_PNW
                                      173
                                      174
                                      174
                                      176
                                      179
                                      185
                                      191
                                      199
                                   WECC_SCE
                                      108
                                      108
                                      107
                                      106
                                      105
                                      106
                                      109
                                      113
                                   WECC_SNV
                                      27
                                      27
                                      28
                                      29
                                      30
                                      31
                                      32
                                      34
                                    WECC_UT
                                      28
                                      28
                                      28
                                      28
                                      29
                                      30
                                      31
                                      32
                                    WECC_WY
                                      17
                                      18
                                      18
                                      18
                                      18
                                      19
                                      20
                                      21

Table 3-4 National Non-Coincidental Net Internal Demand 
                                     Year
                               Peak Demand (GW)

                                    Winter
                                Winter Shoulder
                                    Summer
                                     2021
                                      653
                                      586
                                      769
                                     2023
                                      660
                                      592
                                      776
                                     2025
                                      669
                                      599
                                      786
                                     2030
                                      690
                                      618
                                      812
                                     2035
                                      714
                                      638
                                      843
                                     2040
                                      745
                                      664
                                      880
                                     2045
                                      779
                                      692
                                      923
                                     2050
                                      818
                                      724
                                      972

 Renewable Portfolio Standards
Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) have been updated for Connecticut and New Jersey.  Table 3-18 shows the state level RPS requirements.

Table 3-18 Renewable Portfolio Standards
              State Renewable Portfolio Standards in % - AEO 2018
                                     State
                                     2021
                                     2023
                                     2025
                                     2030
                                     2035
                                     2040
                                     2045
                                     2050
Arizona
                                     6.3%
                                     7.4%
                                     8.5%
                                     8.5%
                                     8.5%
                                     8.5%
                                     8.5%
                                     8.5%
California
                                     34.8%
                                     38.3%
                                     41.7%
                                     50.0%
                                     50.0%
                                     50.0%
                                     50.0%
                                     50.0%
Colorado
                                     21.2%
                                     21.2%
                                     21.2%
                                     21.2%
                                     21.2%
                                     21.2%
                                     21.2%
                                     21.2%
Connecticut
                                     26.5%
                                     30.0%
                                     34.0%
                                     44.0%
                                     44.0%
                                     44.0%
                                     44.0%
                                     44.0%
District of Columbia
                                     20.0%
                                     20.0%
                                     26.0%
                                     42.0%
                                     50.0%
                                     50.0%
                                     50.0%
                                     50.0%
Delaware
                                     15.2%
                                     16.6%
                                     18.1%
                                     18.1%
                                     18.1%
                                     18.1%
                                     18.1%
                                     18.1%
Iowa
                                     0.6%
                                     0.6%
                                     0.6%
                                     0.6%
                                     0.6%
                                     0.6%
                                     0.5%
                                     0.5%
Illinois
                                     9.8%
                                     11.5%
                                     13.1%
                                     14.0%
                                     14.0%
                                     14.0%
                                     14.0%
                                     14.0%
Massachusetts
                                     21.5%
                                     23.5%
                                     25.5%
                                     30.5%
                                     35.5%
                                     40.5%
                                     45.5%
                                     50.5%
Maryland
                                     25.0%
                                     25.0%
                                     25.0%
                                     25.0%
                                     25.0%
                                     25.0%
                                     25.0%
                                     25.0%
Maine
                                     40.0%
                                     40.0%
                                     40.0%
                                     40.0%
                                     40.0%
                                     40.0%
                                     40.0%
                                     40.0%
Michigan
                                     15.0%
                                     15.0%
                                     15.0%
                                     15.0%
                                     15.0%
                                     15.0%
                                     15.0%
                                     15.0%
Minnesota
                                     25.7%
                                     25.7%
                                     28.4%
                                     28.4%
                                     28.4%
                                     28.4%
                                     28.4%
                                     28.4%
Missouri
                                     10.6%
                                     10.6%
                                     10.6%
                                     10.6%
                                     10.6%
                                     10.6%
                                     10.6%
                                     10.6%
Montana
                                     10.4%
                                     10.4%
                                     10.4%
                                     10.4%
                                     10.4%
                                     10.4%
                                     10.4%
                                     10.4%
North Carolina
                                     7.0%
                                     7.0%
                                     7.0%
                                     7.0%
                                     7.0%
                                     7.0%
                                     7.0%
                                     7.0%
New Hampshire
                                     19.8%
                                     21.2%
                                     23.0%
                                     23.0%
                                     23.0%
                                     23.0%
                                     23.0%
                                     23.0%
New Jersey
                                     28.6%
                                     35.6%
                                     42.3%
                                     54.7%
                                     53.6%
                                     53.6%
                                     53.6%
                                     53.6%
New Mexico
                                     15.8%
                                     15.8%
                                     15.8%
                                     15.8%
                                     15.8%
                                     15.8%
                                     15.8%
                                     15.8%
Nevada
                                     17.3%
                                     17.3%
                                     21.9%
                                     21.9%
                                     21.9%
                                     21.9%
                                     21.9%
                                     21.9%
New York
                                     25.3%
                                     28.9%
                                     32.5%
                                     41.4%
                                     41.4%
                                     41.4%
                                     41.4%
                                     41.4%
Ohio
                                     6.7%
                                     8.5%
                                     10.2%
                                     11.1%
                                     11.1%
                                     11.1%
                                     11.1%
                                     11.1%
Oregon
                                     14.1%
                                     14.1%
                                     21.0%
                                     27.6%
                                     36.1%
                                     41.1%
                                     42.6%
                                     42.6%
Pennsylvania
                                     8.0%
                                     8.0%
                                     8.0%
                                     8.0%
                                     8.0%
                                     8.0%
                                     8.0%
                                     8.0%
Rhode Island
                                     17.5%
                                     20.5%
                                     23.5%
                                     31.0%
                                     38.5%
                                     38.5%
                                     38.5%
                                     38.5%
Texas
                                     4.3%
                                     4.2%
                                     4.1%
                                     3.9%
                                     3.7%
                                     3.5%
                                     3.4%
                                     3.2%
Vermont
                                     62.4%
                                     67.6%
                                     68.8%
                                     79.8%
                                     85.0%
                                     85.0%
                                     85.0%
                                     85.0%
Washington
                                     11.8%
                                     11.8%
                                     11.8%
                                     11.8%
                                     11.8%
                                     11.8%
                                     11.8%
                                     11.8%
Wisconsin
                                     9.6%
                                     9.6%
                                     9.6%
                                     9.6%
                                     9.6%
                                     9.6%
                                     9.6%
                                     9.65%
                                       
 
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
 
                          State RPS Solar Carve-outs
                                     State
                                     2021
                                     2023
                                     2025
                                     2030
                                     2035
                                     2040
                                     2045
                                     2050
District of Columbia
                                     1.9%
                                     2.5%
                                     2.9%
                                     4.5%
                                     5.0%
                                     5.0%
                                     5.0%
                                     5.0%
Delaware
                                     1.8%
                                     2.2%
                                     2.5%
                                     2.5%
                                     2.5%
                                     2.5%
                                     2.5%
                                     2.5%
Illinois
                                     1.05%
                                     1.23%
                                     1.41%
                                     1.50%
                                     1.50%
                                     1.50%
                                     1.50%
                                     1.50%
Massachusetts
                                     0.17%
                                     0.18%
                                     0.20%
                                     0.24%
                                     0.28%
                                     0.32%
                                     0.36%
                                     0.40%
Maryland
                                     2.50%
                                     2.50%
                                     2.50%
                                     2.50%
                                     2.50%
                                     2.50%
                                     2.50%
                                     2.50%
Minnesota
                                     1.19%
                                     1.19%
                                     1.19%
                                     1.19%
                                     1.19%
                                     1.19%
                                     1.19%
                                     1.19%
Missouri
                                     0.21%
                                     0.21%
                                     0.21%
                                     0.21%
                                     0.21%
                                     0.21%
                                     0.21%
                                     0.21%
North Carolina
                                     0.11%
                                     0.11%
                                     0.11%
                                     0.11%
                                     0.11%
                                     0.11%
                                     0.11%
                                     0.11%
New Hampshire
                                     0.70%
                                     0.70%
                                     0.70%
                                     0.70%
                                     0.70%
                                     0.70%
                                     0.70%
                                     0.70%
New Jersey
                                     5.10%
                                     5.10%
                                     4.80%
                                     2.21%
                                     1.10%
                                     1.10%
                                     1.10%
                                     1.10%
New Mexico
                                     3.17%
                                     3.17%
                                     3.17%
                                     3.17%
                                     3.17%
                                     3.17%
                                     3.17%
                                     3.17%
Nevada
                                     1.04%
                                     1.04%
                                     1.31%
                                     1.31%
                                     1.31%
                                     1.31%
                                     1.31%
                                     1.31%
Ohio
                                     0.27%
                                     0.34%
                                     0.41%
                                     0.45%
                                     0.45%
                                     0.45%
                                     0.45%
                                     0.45%
Pennsylvania
                                     0.50%
                                     0.50%
                                     0.50%
                                     0.50%
                                     0.50%
                                     0.50%
                                     0.50%
                                     0.50%
Note 1: The Renewable Portfolio Standard percentages are applied to modeled electricity sale projections.
    Note 2: North Carolina standards are adjusted to account for swine waste and poultry waste set-asides.

 NOx Rates
Attachment 3-1 of the EPA Platform v6 documentation summarizes the NOx rate development approach in EPA Platform v6.  The following hierarchy of NOx rate data sources is used for this approach:
 2017 Emission Tracking System (ETS)
 Comments on NOx rates
 2016/2015/2014/2011/2009/2007 ETS
 2015 EIA Form 860
 State-level defaults
 National-level defaults
The state and national-level default NOx rates are calculated for different configurations of plant type, fuel type, and emission controls.  The calculation is performed for a configuration only if the configuration has at least two units having NOx rates from data sources 1 through 4 above. 
In NEEDS for EPA617_BC_46l_No45Q, an attempt was made to reduce the number of units currently being assigned national-level default NOx rates.  Two new sources of NOx emissions were identified, which are discussed below. 
I. National Emissions Inventory (NEI) is a comprehensive and detailed estimate of air emissions of criteria pollutants, criteria precursors, and hazardous air pollutants from air emissions sources.  The NEI is released every three years.  The data is based primarily upon data provided by State, Local, and Tribal air agencies for sources in their jurisdictions.  It is further supplemented by data developed by the U.S. EPA.  The current version of NEI NOx emission data is of the 2014 vintage (https://www.epa.gov/air-emissions-inventories/2014-national-emissions-inventory-nei-data).  The individual records in NEI are presented at the facility ID, point ID, process ID, and standard combustion code (SCC) level.  EPA mapped the NEEDS ID and NEI's facility ID and point ID, and used the mapping to map the records in the NEI with individual NEEDS units that were being assigned default NOx rates.  For those records that could be mapped to NEEDS, and had both fuel use and NOx emission data available, the data was aggregated to the facility ID and point ID level.  The NEEDS unit-level heat input and NOx emissions were used to calculate NEEDS unit-level NOx rates.  This procedure yielded NOx rates for 451 NEEDS Unique IDs from the NEI.  These NOx rates were further evaluated to remove outliers. 
II. California Air Resources Board (CARB) hosts an online database of facility-level criteria and toxic plus risk data (https://www.arb.ca.gov/app/emsinv/facinfo/facinfo.php).  The most current NOx emissions are of the 2016 vintage.  However, the CARB database does not have any fuel use information.  In order to obtain the fuel use information, ICF mapped the CARB facility ID to 2016 EIA Form 923.  The fuel use from the EIA Form 923 and the NOx emissions from CARB were used to calculate facility-level NOx emission rates.  If only one plant type was under the facility ID in NEEDS, the facility-level NOx rate was considered for all NEEDS Unit ID's at that facility.  If multiple plant types were under the same facility ID in NEEDS, the CARB facility-level NOx rate was not adopted in this update.  This approach yielded NOx rates for 395 NEEDS Unique IDs from CARB.  These 395 NOx rates were further evaluated to remove outliers.  The result yielded 287 out of 395 CARB NOx rates that were adopted in this update.
The state and national-level default NOx rates were regenerated after accounting for the units that were now assigned NOx rates from NEI and CARB.  These revised default NOx rates were compared with RACT rates in the states of Connecticut, Pennsylvania, and New York.  If the newly generated default NOx rates were higher than the RACT rates, the newly generated default rates were overridden by the RACT rates.  Table **1 summarizes how the defaults were assigned before and after this update.  For the units with defaults NOx rates in Platform v6 Initial Run, Table **2 compares the average NOx rate by plant type before and after this update. 
In addition, this update reviewed the NEEDS to 2017 ETS mapping for some units that were online around 2016-2017, and assigned the actual 2016/2017 ETS NOx rates wherever available. 
Table **1 NOx Rate Default Assignment Change after Update
         Default NOx Rate Source in NEEDS for Platform v6 Initial Run
               NOx Rate Source in NEEDS for EPA617_BC_46l_No45Q
                        Count of NEEDS v6 Active Units
Default NOx Rate of Zero
2014 NEI NOx Emissions and Fuel Use
                                      11

Default NOx Rate of Zero
                                      210
National-Level Default NOx Rate
2014 NEI NOx Emissions and  Fuel Use
                                      350

2016 CARB NOx Emissions and 2016 EIA Form 923 Fuel Use
                                      239

2016 ETS NOx Rate
                                       2

2017 ETS NOx Rate
                                       3

National-Level Default NOx Rate
                                     2,904

New York RACT rate
                                      16

Pennsylvania RACT rate
                                      19

State-Level Default NOx Rate
                                     1,466
State-Level Default NOx Rate
2014 NEI NOx Emissions and  Fuel Use
                                      31

2016 CARB NOx Emissions and 2016 EIA Form 923 Fuel Use
                                       1

2016 ETS NOx Rate
                                       1

National-Level Default NOx Rate
                                       5

State-Level Default NOx Rate
                                      127

Table **2 Comparison of Average NOx Rates for Units Assigned with Default NOx Rates by Plant Type
                                       
                    Platform v6 Initial Run (Before Update)
                      EPA617_BC_46l_No45Q (After Update)
Plant Type
                                      M1
                                      M2
                                      M3
                                      M4
                                      M1
                                      M2
                                      M3
                                      M4
IC Engine
                                     0.86
                                     0.86
                                     0.86
                                     0.86
                                     1.85
                                     1.84
                                     1.85
                                     1.84
Combustion Turbine
                                     0.49
                                     0.49
                                     0.49
                                     0.49
                                     0.34
                                     0.33
                                     0.34
                                     0.33
Combined Cycle
                                     0.11
                                     0.11
                                     0.11
                                     0.11
                                     0.06
                                     0.06
                                     0.06
                                     0.06
O/G Steam
                                     0.17
                                     0.17
                                     0.17
                                     0.17
                                     0.16
                                     0.16
                                     0.16
                                     0.16
Biomass
                                     0.20
                                     0.20
                                     0.20
                                     0.20
                                     0.17
                                     0.17
                                     0.17
                                     0.17
Coal Steam
                                     0.29
                                     0.27
                                     0.27
                                     0.25
                                     0.47
                                     0.46
                                     0.44
                                     0.44
Landfill Gas
                                     0.37
                                     0.37
                                     0.37
                                     0.37
                                     0.22
                                     0.22
                                     0.22
                                     0.22
Municipal Solid Waste
                                     0.41
                                     0.36
                                     0.41
                                     0.36
                                     0.36
                                     0.31
                                     0.36
                                     0.31
Non-Fossil Waste
                                     0.00
                                     0.00
                                     0.00
                                     0.00
                                     0.01
                                     0.01
                                     0.01
                                     0.01
Fossil Waste
                                     0.05
                                     0.05
                                     0.05
                                     0.05
                                     0.05
                                     0.05
                                     0.05
                                     0.05
Tires
                                     0.10
                                     0.10
                                     0.10
                                     0.10
                                     0.29
                                     0.29
                                     0.29
                                     0.29

 National Electric Energy Data System (NEEDS) Updates
Table 4-1 shows the data sources for NEEDS v6 and Table 4-2 specifies the screening rules applied to the data source to ensure data consistency and adaptability for use in EPA617_BC_46l_No45Q.
 
Table 4-1 Data Sources for NEEDS v6 for EPA617_BC_46l_No45Q
                                Data Source[1]
                           Data Source Documentation

EIA Form 860
EIA Form 860 is an annual survey of utility and non-utility power plants at the generator level.  It contains data such as summer, winter, and nameplate capacity, location (state and county), operating status, prime mover, energy sources and in-service date of existing and proposed generators.  NEEDS v6 uses the annual 2016 Early Release EIA Form 860, May 2017 EIA Form 860M, October 2017 EIA Form 860M and the July 2018 EIA Form 860M as the primary generator data inputs.  

EIA Form 860 also collects data of steam boilers such as energy sources, boiler identification, location, operating status and design information; and associated environmental equipment such as NOx combustion and post-combustion controls, FGD scrubber, mercury control and particulate collector device information.  Note that boilers in plants with less than 10 MW do not report all data elements.  The association between boilers and generators is also provided.  Note that boilers and generators are not necessarily in a one-to-one correspondence.  NEEDS v6 uses 2015 EIA Form 860 and 2016 Early Release EIA Form 860 as the primary boiler data inputs.  
EIA's Annual Energy Outlook (AEO)
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook presents annually updated forecasts of energy supply, demand and prices covering a 30-year time horizon.  The projections are based on results from EIA's National Energy Modeling System (NEMS).  Information from AEO 2017 such as heat rates and planned-committed units were used in NEEDS v6.
EPA's Emission Tracking System
The Emission Tracking System (ETS) database is updated quarterly.  It contains information including primary fuel, heat input, SO2, NOx, Mercury, and HCl controls, and SO2 and NOx emissions.  NEEDS v6 uses annual and seasonal ETS (2017) data as one of the primary data inputs for NOx rate development and environmental equipment assignment.
Utility and Regional EPA Office Comments
Comments from utilities, regional EPA offices and other stakeholders regarding the prior versions of NEEDS.
Note:	
[1] Shown in Table 4-1 are the primary issue dates of the indicated data sources used.  Other vintages of these data sources were also used in instances where data were not available for the indicated issued date, or where there were methodological reasons for using other vintages of the data.	

Table 4-2 Rules Used in Populating NEEDS v6 for EPA617_BC_46l_No45Q
                                     Scope
                                     Rule
                                   Capacity
Excluded units with reported summer capacity, winter capacity and nameplate capacity of zero or blank. 

                                    Status
Excluded units that were out of service for three consecutive years (i.e., generators or boilers with status codes "OS" or "OA" in the latest three reporting years) and units that were no longer in service and not expected to be returned to service (i.e., generators or boilers with status codes of "RE"). Status of boiler(s) and associated generator(s) were taken into account for determining operation status
                          Planned or Committed Units
Included planned units that had broken ground or secured financing and were expected to be online by June 30, 2021; two nuclear units that are scheduled to come online after 2021 were also included1
                         Firm/Non-firm Electric Sales
Excluded non-utility onsite generators that do not produce electricity for sale to the grid on a net basis

Excluded all mobile and distributed generators
Note:
The two nuclear units are Vogtle, units 3&4

Planned units, retirements, and emission control configurations were updated in NEEDS using July 2018 EIA Form 860M, 2017 EIA Form 860 ER, AEO 2018, AMPD 2017, and recent lists of deactivations from PJM, MISO, and ERCOT.  Table 4-3 provides a summary of the population and capacity of the existing units included in NEEDS v6 through 2017.  Table 4-49 lists all units that are removed from the NEEDS v6 inventory.

Table 4-3 Summary Population (through 2017) of Existing Units in NEEDS v6
                                  Plant Type 
                               Number of Units 
                                Capacity (MW) 
Biomass
                                      186
                                     3,876
Coal Steam
                                      593
                                    226,339
Combined Cycle
                                     1837
                                    246,866
Combustion Turbine
                                     5381
                                    143,285
Energy Storage
                                      81
                                      659
Fossil Waste
                                      81
                                     1,049
Fuel Cell
                                      72
                                      130
Geothermal
                                      164
                                     2,396
Hydro
                                     3805
                                    79,186
IGCC
                                       5
                                      815
Landfill Gas
                                     1576
                                     1,913
Municipal Solid Waste
                                      165
                                     2,123
Non-Fossil Waste
                                      216
                                     2,027
Nuclear
                                      90
                                    92,260
O/G Steam
                                      443
                                    74,999
Offshore Wind
                                       1
                                      29
Onshore Wind
                                     1185
                                    87,185
Pumped Storage
                                      148
                                    22,196
Solar PV
                                     2452
                                    24,144
Solar Thermal
                                      16
                                     1,754
Tires
                                       2
                                      52
                                   US Total
                                    18,499
                                   1,013,283

Table 4-4 summarizes the hierarchy of data sources used in compiling capacity data.  In other words, capacity values are taken from a particular source only if the sources listed above it do not provide adequate data for the unit in question.

Table 4-4 Hierarchy of Data Sources for Capacity in NEEDS v6
                        Sources Presented in Hierarchy
               Net Summer Capacity from Comments / ICF Research
                  May 2017 EIA Form 860M Net Summer Capacity
                     2015 EIA Form 860 Net Summer Capacity
                October 2017 EIA Form 860M Net Summer Capacity
                  July 2018 EIA Form 860M Net Summer Capacity
Notes:
If the capacity of a unit is zero MW, the unit is excluded from NEEDS population.

Table 4-6 shows the hierarchy of data sources used in determining a unit configuration.
Table 4-6 Data Sources for Unit Configuration in NEEDS v6
                                Unit Component
                              Primary Data Source
                             Secondary Data Source
                             Tertiary Data Source
                                 Other Sources
                                    Default
Firing Type
2015/2016 EIA 860
EPA's Emission Tracking System (ETS)  -  2015/2017
                                      --
                                      --
                                      --
Bottom Type
2015/2016 EIA 860
EPA's Emission Tracking System (ETS)  -  2015/2017
                                      --
                                      --
                                      Dry
SO2  Pollution Control
2015/2016 EIA 860
EPA's Emission Tracking System (ETS)  -  2015/2017
                          NSR Settlement or Comments
                                      --
                                  No Control
NOx  Pollution Control
2015/2016 EIA 860
EPA's Emission Tracking System (ETS)  -  2015/2017
                          NSR Settlement or Comments
                                      --
                                  No Control
Particulate Matter Control
2015/2016 EIA 860
EPA's Emission Tracking System (ETS)  -  2015/2017
                          NSR Settlement or Comments
                                      --
                                      --
Mercury Control
2015/2016 EIA 860
EPA's Emission Tracking System (ETS)  -  2015/2017
                          NSR Settlement or Comments
                                      --
                                      --
HCL Control
2015/2016 EIA 860
EPA's Emission Tracking System (ETS)  -  2015/2017
                          NSR Settlement or Comments
                                      --
                                      --

Table 4-7 shows the number of actual units by generation technology type and the related number of aggregated model plants in the EPA617_BC_46l_No45Q.  For each plant type, the table shows the number of generating units and the number of model plants representing the generating units.
Table 4-7 Aggregation Profile of Model Plants as Provided at Set up for EPA617_BC_46l_No45Q
                     Existing and Planned/Committed Units
                                  Plant Type
                                Number of Units
                          Number of IPM Model Plants
Biomass
                                      300
                                      165
Coal Steam
                                      675
                                      527
Combined Cycle
                                     2,032
                                      891
Combustion Turbine
                                     5,988
                                     2,535
Energy Storage
                                      85
                                      41
Fossil Waste
                                      86
                                      25
Fuel Cell
                                      72
                                      35
Geothermal
                                      174
                                      31
Hydro
                                     5,455
                                      252
IGCC
                                       5
                                       2
IMPORT
                                       1
                                       1
Landfill Gas
                                     1,643
                                      307
Municipal Solid Waste
                                      166
                                      60
Non-Fossil Waste
                                      267
                                      140
Nuclear
                                      115
                                      115
O/G Steam
                                      590
                                      399
Offshore Wind
                                       1
                                       1
Onshore Wind
                                     1,570
                                      89
Pumped Storage
                                      155
                                      27
Solar PV
                                     2,532
                                      98
Solar Thermal
                                      17
                                       5
Tires
                                       2
                                       1
Total
                                    21,931
                                     5,747
                                   New Units
                                  Plant Type
                          Number of IPM Model Plants
New Battery Storage
                                      168
New Biomass
                                      134
New Combined Cycle
                                      456
New Combined Cycle with Carbon Capture
                                      228
New Combustion Turbine
                                      456
New Fuel Cell
                                      150
New Geothermal
                                      93
New Hydro
                                      153
New Landfill Gas
                                      379
New Nuclear
                                      132
New Offshore Wind
                                      894
New Onshore Wind
                                     5,358
New Solar PV
                                     1,373
New Solar Thermal
                                      261
New Ultrasupercritical Coal with 30% CCS
                                      266
New Ultrasupercritical Coal with 90% CCS
                                      266
New Ultrasupercritical Coal without CCS
                                      138
Total
                                    10,905
                                   Retrofits
                                  Plant Type
                          Number of IPM Model Plants
Retrofit Coal with ACI
                                      74
Retrofit Coal with ACI + CCS
                                      92
Retrofit Coal with ACI + CCS + HRI
                                      92
Retrofit Coal with ACI + CCS + HRI + SCR
                                      20
Retrofit Coal with ACI + CCS + HRI + SNCR
                                      29
Retrofit Coal with ACI + CCS + SCR
                                      20
Retrofit Coal with ACI + DSI
                                      20
Retrofit Coal with ACI + DSI + HRI
                                      20
Retrofit Coal with ACI + DSI + HRI + SCR
                                      31
Retrofit Coal with ACI + DSI + HRI + SCR + Scrubber
                                      22
Retrofit Coal with ACI + DSI + HRI + Scrubber
                                      18
Retrofit Coal with ACI + DSI + HRI + Scrubber + SNCR
                                      14
Retrofit Coal with ACI + DSI + HRI + SNCR
                                      27
Retrofit Coal with ACI + DSI + SCR
                                      31
Retrofit Coal with ACI + DSI + SCR + Scrubber
                                      22
Retrofit Coal with ACI + DSI + Scrubber
                                      18
Retrofit Coal with ACI + DSI + Scrubber + SNCR
                                      14
Retrofit Coal with ACI + DSI + SNCR
                                      31
Retrofit Coal with ACI + HRI
                                      74
Retrofit Coal with ACI + HRI + SCR
                                      62
Retrofit Coal with ACI + HRI + SCR + Scrubber
                                      62
Retrofit Coal with ACI + HRI + Scrubber
                                      53
Retrofit Coal with ACI + HRI + Scrubber + SNCR
                                      74
Retrofit Coal with ACI + HRI + SNCR
                                      61
Retrofit Coal with ACI + SCR
                                      62
Retrofit Coal with ACI + SCR + Scrubber
                                      62
Retrofit Coal with ACI + Scrubber
                                      52
Retrofit Coal with ACI + Scrubber + SNCR
                                      75
Retrofit Coal with ACI + SNCR
                                      62
Retrofit Coal with C2G
                                      454
Retrofit Coal with C2G + SCR
                                      454
Retrofit Coal with CCS
                                      791
Retrofit Coal with CCS + HRI
                                      788
Retrofit Coal with CCS + HRI + SCR
                                      252
Retrofit Coal with CCS + HRI + SCR + Scrubber
                                      208
Retrofit Coal with CCS + HRI + Scrubber
                                      232
Retrofit Coal with CCS + HRI + Scrubber + SNCR
                                      152
Retrofit Coal with CCS + HRI + SNCR
                                      180
Retrofit Coal with CCS + SCR
                                      255
Retrofit Coal with CCS + SCR + Scrubber
                                      212
Retrofit Coal with CCS + Scrubber
                                      240
Retrofit Coal with CCS + Scrubber + SNCR
                                      156
Retrofit Coal with CCS + SNCR
                                      183
Retrofit Coal with DSI
                                      21
Retrofit Coal with DSI + HRI
                                      70
Retrofit Coal with DSI + HRI + SCR
                                      75
Retrofit Coal with DSI + HRI + SCR + Scrubber
                                      21
Retrofit Coal with DSI + HRI + Scrubber
                                      26
Retrofit Coal with DSI + HRI + SNCR
                                      69
Retrofit Coal with DSI + SCR
                                      109
Retrofit Coal with DSI + SCR + Scrubber
                                      33
Retrofit Coal with DSI + Scrubber
                                      38
Retrofit Coal with DSI + SNCR
                                      103
Retrofit Coal with HRI
                                      482
Retrofit Coal with HRI + SCR
                                      432
Retrofit Coal with HRI + SCR + Scrubber
                                      450
Retrofit Coal with HRI + Scrubber
                                      357
Retrofit Coal with HRI + Scrubber + SNCR
                                      408
Retrofit Coal with HRI + SNCR
                                      342
Retrofit Coal with SCR
                                      242
Retrofit Coal with SCR + Scrubber
                                      582
Retrofit Coal with Scrubber
                                      224
Retrofit Coal with Scrubber + SNCR
                                      544
Retrofit Coal with SNCR
                                      203
Retrofit Combined Cycle with CCS
                                     2787
Retrofit Oil/Gas steam with SCR
                                      222
Total
                                    13,691
                                  Retirements
                                  Plant Type
                          Number of IPM Model Plants
Biomass Retirement
                                      165
CC Retirement
                                      891
Coal Retirement
                                     5,394
CT Retirement
                                     2,535
Geothermal Retirement
                                      31
Hydro Retirement
                                      252
IGCC Retirement
                                       2
Landfill Gas Retirement
                                      307
Nuke Retirement
                                      115
Oil/Gas steam Retirement
                                     1,075
Total
                                    10,767
Grand Total (Existing and Planned/Committed + New + Retrofits + Early Retirements): 41,110

Table 4-11 summarizes the extent of inventory of planned-committed units represented by unit types and generating capacity.
Table 4-11 Summary of Planned-Committed Units in NEEDS v6 for EPA617_BC_46l_No45Q
                                     Type
                                 Capacity (MW)
                             Year Range Described
                          Renewables/Non-conventional
Biomass
                                      12
                                  2019 - 2019
Energy Storage
                                      22
                                  2018 - 2019
Hydro
                                      244
                                  2018 - 2020
Non-Fossil Waste
                                      44
                                  2018 - 2020
Onshore Wind
                                     3,483
                                  2018 - 2019
Solar PV
                                      431
                                  2018 - 2020
Subtotal
                                     4,237
                                       
                              Fossil/Conventional
Combined Cycle
                                    18,195
                                  2018 - 2020
Combustion Turbine
                                     2,302
                                  2018 - 2021
Nuclear
                                     2,200
                                  2022 - 2023
O/G Steam
                                      23
                                  2018 - 2018
Subtotal
                                    22,720
 
Grand Total
                                    26,957
 

Table 4-12 gives a breakdown of planned-committed units by IPM region, unit type, number of units, and capacity.
Table 4-12 Planned-Committed Units by Model Region in NEEDS v6 for EPA617_BC_46l_No45Q
                                  IPM Region
                                  Plant Type
                                 Capacity (MW)
                                   ERC_PHDL
                                 Onshore Wind
                                      588
                                   ERC_REST
                              Combustion Turbine
                                     1,061

                               Non-Fossil Waste
                                      23

                                 Onshore Wind
                                      160
                                   ERC_WEST
                                 Onshore Wind
                                      660
                                     FRCC
                                    Biomass
                                      12

                                Combined Cycle
                                     1,640

                                   Solar PV
                                      149
                                   MIS_AMSO
                                Combined Cycle
                                     1,000
                                    MIS_IA
                                 Onshore Wind
                                      66
                                   MIS_INKY
                                Combined Cycle
                                      644
                                   MIS_MAPP
                              Combustion Turbine
                                      218
                                   MIS_MNWI
                              Combustion Turbine
                                      215

                                 Onshore Wind
                                      40
                                   MIS_WUMS
                                Combined Cycle
                                      700

                                   Solar PV
                                       2
                                    NENG_CT
                                Combined Cycle
                                     1,230

                              Combustion Turbine
                                      90
                                    NENG_ME
                                   O/G Steam
                                      23
                                 NY_Z_C&E
                                   Solar PV
                                       4
                                   NY_Z_G-I
                                Combined Cycle
                                      705

                               Non-Fossil Waste
                                      19
                                   PJM_ATSI
                                Combined Cycle
                                      273
                                    PJM_Dom
                                Combined Cycle
                                     1,585

                              Combustion Turbine
                                      300
                                   PJM_EMAC
                                Combined Cycle
                                     1,368
                                   PJM_PENE
                                Combined Cycle
                                      926

                              Combustion Turbine
                                      13
                                   PJM_SMAC
                                Combined Cycle
                                      755
                                   PJM_West
                                Combined Cycle
                                     1,187
                                   PJM_WMAC
                                Combined Cycle
                                     3,472
                                    S_C_TVA
                                Combined Cycle
                                     1,052
                                     S_SOU
                                    Nuclear
                                     2,200
                                    S_VACA
                                Combined Cycle
                                     1,072
                                     SPP_N
                              Combustion Turbine
                                       6
                                    SPP_SPS
                                 Onshore Wind
                                      800
                                   SPP_WAUE
                                 Onshore Wind
                                      98
                                   SPP_WEST
                              Combustion Turbine
                                      399

                                 Onshore Wind
                                      200
                                   WEC_CALN
                                Combined Cycle
                                      586

                               Non-Fossil Waste
                                       2

                                   Solar PV
                                      200
                                    WECC_CO
                                 Onshore Wind
                                      30
                                    WECC_NM
                                 Onshore Wind
                                      580
                                   WECC_PNW
                                     Hydro
                                      244

                                 Onshore Wind
                                      60

                                   Solar PV
                                      56
                                   WECC_SCE
                                Energy Storage
                                      22

                                 Onshore Wind
                                      171

                                   Solar PV
                                      20
                                    WECC_WY
                                 Onshore Wind
                                      30
Note:
Any unit in NEEDS v6 that has an online year of 2018 or later was considered a Planned/Committed Unit.  
                                       
 ELG Costs
Revised ELG costs were implemented through FOM and VOM adders.  Section 3.9.5 in EPA Platform v6 document.
 NY Minimum Oil Burn Rule
The NY minimum oil burn rule was implemented for the following units through facility level minimum generation constraints in the 2021, 2023, and 2025 run years, as shown in Table **2.  

Table **2 NY Minimum Oil Burn Rule Plant Level Oil Capacity Factor Requirements
 
                            Oil Capacity Factor (%)

                                    Winter
                                Winter Shoulder
                                    Summer
Steam Facilities (Heavy Oil)
                                       
                                       
                                       
Astoria
                                     2.10%
                                     0.20%
                                     0.50%
East River
                                     3.00%
                                     0.40%
                                     0.60%
Northport
                                     5.20%
                                     0.50%
                                     2.00%
Ravenswood
                                     0.70%
                                     0.20%
                                     0.60%
Combined Cycle (Light Oil)
                                       
                                       
                                       
Astoria Energy
                                     2.90%
                                     0.00%
                                     0.00%
Charles Polletti Power Plant
                                     3.00%
                                     0.40%
                                     0.00%
Ravenswood
                                     1.00%
                                     0.10%
                                     0.00%

 Nuclear Units
AEO 2018 VOM and FOM costs were implemented for nuclear units, which are shown in Table 4-47.  Section 4.5.1 in EPA Platform v6 document.
 Energy Storage
Energy storage is the capture of energy produced at one time for use at a later time.  Renewable energy resources such as wind and solar are intermittent in nature.  They produce energy only when the sun is shining and the wind is blowing.  By storing excess energy during production and releasing the stored energy when needed, energy storage technologies can help mitigate the intermittency nature of renewable resources.  They therefore enhance reliability by helping to create a continuous, reliable stream of power throughout the day.  Presently, the more common energy storage technologies include pump storage and battery storage.  The technologies come with limited storage capability.  They are deployed in practice to shift excess energy from off-peak to on-peak hours.

EPA Platform v6 includes new energy storage options by IPM region and state.  Table **3 summarizes the key cost and performance assumptions as implemented in the EPA617_BC_46l_No45Q.  These assumptions are based on Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2018.  

Table **3 Performance and Unit Cost Assumptions for Potential (New) Battery Storage 
                                       
                                Battery Storage
Size (MW)
                                      30
First Year Available
                                     2021
Lead Time (Years)
                                       1
Availability (%)
                                     96.4
Reserve Margin Contribution (%)
                                      100
Generation Capability
                               Economic Dispatch
Storage System Efficiency (%)
                                      85
Charge Capacity (Hours)
                                       4
Fixed O&M (2016$/kW-Yr)
                                      35
Variable O&M (2016$/MWh)
                                      7.1
                      Capital Cost without IDC (2016$/kW)
                                     2021
                                     2,048
                                     2023
                                     1,977
                                     2025
                                     1,906
                                     2030
                                     1,740
                                     2035
                                     1,574
                                     2040
                                     1,418
                                     2045
                                     1,271
                                     2050
                                     1,131

Multiple U.S. states have instituted standalone targets and mandates for energy storage procurement.  Table **4 summarizes the state-specific energy storage mandates that are included in EPA617_BC_46l_No45Q.  Under Assembly Bill No. 2514 and Assembly Bill No. 2868, the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) established energy storage targets for the state's three investor-owned utilities (IOUs) Pacific Gas and Electric Company, Southern California Edison, and San Diego Gas & Electric.  Hence, the California state mandates are modeled at the utility level in EPA617_BC_46l_No45Q.    
                                       
Table **4 Energy Storage Mandates in EPA617_BC_46l_No45Q 
                                 State/Region
                                     Bill
                                 Mandate Type
                            Mandate Specifications
                             Implementation Status
                                     Notes
                                  California
                            Assembly Bill No. 2514
                                 Target in MW
Energy storage target of 1,325 megawatts for Pacific Gas and Electric Company, Southern California Edison, and San Diego Gas & Electric by 2020, with installations required no later than the end of 2024.
                                     2020
In IPM, modeled constraint at the utility level.
                                       
                            Assembly Bill No. 2868
                                 Target in MW
500 MW of distributed energy storage systems (166.66 MW for each of PG&E, SCE, and SDG&E).
                                     2020
In IPM, modeled constraint at the utility level.
                                       
                              Senate Bill No. 801
                                 Target in MW
SB 801 directs LADWP to work with the city council of Los Angeles regarding potential deployment of 100 MW of energy storage solutions.  SCE is procuring 20 MW.
                                     2019
In IPM, modeled constraint at the utility level.
                                   New York
                     New York State Energy Storage Target
                                 Target in MW
1,500 Megawatts by 2025.
                                     2025

                                  New Jersey
                            Assembly Bill No. 3723
                                 Target in MW
600 megawatts of energy storage by 2021 and 2,000 megawatts of energy storage by 2030.
                                     2021

                                    Oregon
                                House Bill 2193
                      Target in MWh per electric company
An electric company shall procure one or more qualifying energy storage systems that have the capacity to store at least five-megawatt hours of energy on or before January 1, 2020.
                                     2020
Two major utilities in Oregon are Portland General Electric and PacifiCorp.  Thus, modeled 10 MWh of battery storage in IPM.
                                 Massachusetts
                                  Chapter 188
                                 Target in MWh
200 Megawatt hour (MWh) energy storage target for electric distribution companies to procure viable and cost-effective energy storage systems to be achieved by January 1, 2020.
                                     2020

 Carbon Capture, Transport, and Storage
The CO2 storage and transportation costs embedded in the CCS retrofit VOM costs as implemented in the Sargent and Lundy cost model were removed to eliminate double counting of those costs.  The revised Table 6-2 is shown below.  
Table 6-2 Performance and Unit Cost Assumptions for Carbon Capture Retrofits on Coal Plants
                                 Capacity (MW)
                              Heat Rate (Btu/kWh)
                              Capital Cost ($/kW)
                            Fixed O&M ($/kW-yr)
                        Variable O&M (mills/kWh)[2]
                             Capacity Penalty (%)
                             Heat Rate Penalty (%)
                                      400
                                     9,000
                                     2,595
                                     36.9
                                     3.15
                                     33.6
                                     50.6

                                    10,000
                                     2,960
                                     41.2
                                     3.71
                                     37.3
                                     59.5

                                    11,000
                                     3,373
                                     46.1
                                     4.32
                                     41.0
                                     69.6
                                      700
                                     9,000
                                     1,852
                                     23.7
                                     2.57
                                     19.2
                                     23.7

                                    10,000
                                     2,071
                                     26.1
                                     2.93
                                     21.3
                                     27.0

                                    11,000
                                     2,302
                                     28.6
                                     3.31
                                     23.4
                                     30.6
                                     1,000
                                     9,000
                                     1,625
                                     19.7
                                     2.40
                                     13.4
                                     15.5

                                    10,000
                                     1,810
                                     21.6
                                     2.71
                                     14.9
                                     17.5

                                    11,000
                                     2,001
                                     23.6
                                     3.03
                                     16.4
                                     19.6
Note:
 
 
 
 
 
 
[1]Incremental costs are applied to the derated (after retrofit) MW size.
[2]The CO2 Transportation, Storage, and Monitoring portion of the variable O&M has been removed from Sargent & Lundy cost method and modeled separately.
 

CCS retrofit builds in platform v6 are disabled in model regions that cannot support the sequestration of CO2 emissions from a 400 MW coal unit operating at a high capacity factor, an EOR of -30 $/Tonne and a transportation cost of less than 15 $/Tonne.

The CO2 storage cost curves were revised based on a $75 crude oil price, average EOR efficiency of 10 Mcf of CO2 per incremental barrel of crude oil and an adjustment to geologic storage curve for industrial uses of storage capacity. The new curves are summarized in Table 6-4.

The CO2 transportation costs were revised based on a pipeline cost of 183,000 $ per inch-mile. The new transportation cost matrix is summarized in Table 6-5.  
 Tax Law Update
EPA617_BC_46l_No45Q incorporates updates to reflect The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017.  The capital charge rates in the EPA617_BC_46l_No45Q now vary by run year and are slightly lower (less than 10% reduction) than those in the initial run.  The discount rate increases from 3.9% to 4.25%.

The discussion below summarizes the revised assumptions.

Introduction
The new law lowered the federal corporate tax rate from 35% to 21% and made other changes in corporate income tax provisions.  As a result, the financing costs of power sector investments are now expected to be lower than was the case prior to the passage of the bill, and lower than was in the EPA Platform v6 initial run.  The financing costs will decrease, all else held equal, because financing costs include payment of income and other taxes necessary to recover and earn a return on capital; that level is now lower.  The two key financing parameters used in EPA's case -- capital charge rate and discount rate -- reflect the now lower corporate income taxes:

 Capital Charge Rate  -  The capital charge rate equals the ratio of the annuitized Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization (EBITDA) to investment (I) (i.e., EBITDA/I).  EBITDA equals the funds available to pay taxes and provide the required return on and of capital.  
 Weighted Average After Tax Cost of Capital (WACC)  -  The IPM model minimizes the discounted costs and uses the WACC as its discount rate for calculating the present value of all costs.  The WACC is the average of two components: equity and debt.  First, the WACC weights required return on equity on an after tax basis by the equity share of capitalization.  Second, the WACC weights the debt interest expense rate (usually the interest rate) on an after tax basis; the interest rate is multiplied by (1-income tax rate).  The tax rate decreases the cost of interest because of the tax deductibility of interest.  The WACC is now higher because the corporate tax rate is lower.  As a result, future costs are discounted more relative to near term costs.
As discussed further below, interest expense is no longer fully deductible for a portion of the industry in a given year, but is deductible in later years.  In addition, the degree of deductibility in a given year varies year by year with the variation affected by more than one factor.  While the impact of various tax code changes can cause the effectiveness of the tax shield as calculated to vary across time, a single WACC is used in IPM.

Summary of Results
Capital Charge Rates
The real capital charge rate for a new combined cycle coming on-line in 2021 is the representative investment for the real capital charge rate for exposition purposes.  The first run year for EPA Platform v6 using IPM is 2021, and the combined cycle is the most frequently added new thermal power plant.  (Table 37, Table 38, and Table 39 below present year-by-year and technology-by-technology results.)  The real capital charge rate for a new combined cycle on-line in 2021 decreases by approximately 0.49 percentage points due to the new tax law from the previous level of 9.15% (see Table 33).  The decrease is modestly higher for the independent power producer (IPP) sector compared to the utility sector as shown in Table 33.  For example, the real capital charge rate of a new IPP combined cycle decreases 0.79 percentage points from 11.68% to 10.89%, which is a 6.8% decrease in the capital charge rate.  

Table 33 Real Capital Charge Rate for New Combined Cycle 
                           First Model Run Year (%)
                                    Sector
                                 Previous  (A)
                                    New (B)
                               Absolute Change 
                                    (B)-(A)
                                   % Change 
                               ((B-A) /(A))*100
                                      IPP
                                     11.68
                                     10.89
                                     -0.79
                                     -6.8
                                    Utility
                                     8.06
                                     7.67
                                     -0.39
                                     -4.8
                        Blended (70% utility, 30% IPP)
                                     9.15
                                     8.66
                                     -0.49
                                     -5.4
WACC
Table 34 shows the absolute increase in the nominal WACC of 0.35 percentage point and the percentage increase of approximately 6.0%.  The WACC increases because the tax shield on debt decreases from 39.2% to 26.1%.  In other words, as the tax rate decreases, the net, after-tax cost of debt increases and incremental investments require a higher return.  The increase in returns means future costs, including return of and on capital, are discounted more relative to near term costs; having dollars sooner is more valuable as the opportunity cost of deferring earnings increases.  This is because discounting is the inverse of compounding growth.  The increase is larger for IPPs because of their higher debt interest rate and debt share of capital.

The real WACC given an inflation assumption of 1.83% increases from 3.9% to 4.25%.

Table 34 After Tax Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)  -  Nominal (%)
                                    Sector
                                 Previous  (A)
                                    New (B)
                            Absolute Change (B)-(A)
                                   % Change 
                               ((B-A) /(A))*100
                                      IPP
                                     7.88
                                     8.40
                                     +0.52
                                     +6.6
                                    Utility
                                     4.92
                                     5.20
                                     +0.28
                                     +5.7
                         Blended (70% utility 30% IPP)
                                     5.81
                                     6.16
                                     +0.35
                                     +6.0
                                       

Federal Income Tax Law Changes
The four most significant changes in the federal corporate income tax code are:
 Rate - Corporate tax rate is lowered 14 percentage points from 35% to 21%; the 21% rate is in place starting in 2018 and remains in place indefinitely; the lower tax rate decreases financing costs in all periods and all sectors, all else held equal.  When state income taxes are included, the average rate decreases 13.1 percentage points, from 39.2% to 26.1%.
 Depreciation  -  The new tax law expands near term bonus depreciation (also referred to as expensing) for the IPP sector until 2027. 
 Interest Expense  -  The new law lowers tax deductibility of interest expense for the IPP sector, which continues indefinitely.
 Net Operating Losses  -  The new law limits the use of Net Operating Losses (NOL).  
Other important features of the new tax law include:

 Annual Variation of Provisions - The legislation specifies permanent changes (tax rate and NOL usage limit), and temporary changes that vary year-by-year through to 2027 (depreciation and tax deductibility of interest) (See Table 35).  This creates different capital charge rates for each year through 2027.  We calculate these parameters for IPM run years 2021, 2023, 2025, and 2030 and thereafter.  This set covers a wide range of financing conditions even though we do not estimate every year.
Table 35 Summary Tax Changes
Parameter
                                   Previous
                                     2021
                                     2023
                                     2025
                                2030 and Later
Marginal Tax Rate - Federal
                                      35
                                      21
                                      21
                                      21
                                      21
Maximum NOL (Net Operating Loss) Carry Forward Usage
No limit.  All losses in excess of income are carried forward and usable immediately.
Carry Forward cannot exceed 80% of Taxable Income
Carry Forward cannot exceed 80% of Taxable Income
Carry Forward cannot exceed 80% of Taxable Income
Carry Forward cannot exceed 80% of Taxable Income
Tax Deductibility of Interest Expense
100%
IPP 30% of EBITDA; Utilities MACRS
30% of EBIT; Utilities MACRS
30% of EBIT; Utilities MACRS
30% of EBIT; Utilities MACRS
Bonus Depreciation
0
IPP 100%; Utilities 0%
IPP 80%;
Utilities 0%
IPP 40%; Utilities 0%
0

 Utilities Versus IPPs - The legislation treats utilities and non-utilities (Independent Power Producers  -  IPPs) differently.  The new tax code exempts utilities from changes in tax deductibility of interest and accelerated depreciation.  The financing assumptions used in IPM modeling are a blend (weighted average) of the utility and IPP average.  The weighting is 70% utility and 30% IPP, and hence, the greatest weight is on the least affected sector.  This partly mitigates the impacts of the changes.  However, potentially offsetting is the IPP sector's heavy reliance on high cost debt financing, and the high capital intensity of power production.  
 Partly Offsetting Effects - The changes in the tax code affecting IPPs include offsetting effects that yield net lower costs.  The constraints on interest expense deductions and NOL usage raise financing costs, while bonus depreciation and the lower tax rate lower costs (all else held equal).  If the only change for IPPs was the federal corporate tax rate being set to 21% - i.e., other tax law changes affecting IPPs only did not occur  -  the impact on the real capital charge rate would have been similar.  That is, the real IPP capital charge rate would have been 10.99% versus 10.89% for the impact of all changes.
 Near Term Versus Long Term  -  Over time, IPP costs increase because of the higher interest costs due to restricted deductibility and lower IPP decreased bonus depreciation (see Table 36).   
Table 36 Impacts Over Time  -  Capital Charge Rate New Combined Cycle (%)
                                     Year
                                    Utility
                                      IPP
                                    Blended
                                     2021
                                     7.67
                                     10.89
                                     8.64
                                     2023
                                     7.67
                                     10.89
                                     8.64
                                     2025
                                     7.67
                                     10.97
                                     8.66
                                2030 and Beyond
                                     7.67
                                     11.33
                                     8.77
 Renewables - The legislation has minor direct potential impacts on the renewable sector's tax credits via the Base Erosion Anti-Abuse Tax (BEAT).  The maximum effect of BEAT could decrease the value of PTC and ITC by up to 20%; estimates of the expected impact are not yet available.  In addition, the total decrease in corporate income taxes may decrease tax credit appetite accordingly.  Nevertheless, as we lack requisite data at this time we do not apply any additional changes to renewable financing beyond the above-mentioned changes, which affect all capacity types. 
Capital Charge Rates: Utility, IPP, Blended Impacts  -  All Technologies
We summarize capital charge rates by plant types in Table 37, Table 38, and Table 39; these vary because of different financing risks and costs, lifetimes, and depreciation schedules.  

Table 37 Real Capital Charge Rate  -  Blended (%)
New Investment Technology Capital Hybrid (70/30 Utility/Merchant)
Previous Capital Charge Rate

Revised to Incorporate New Tax Code - 2021
Revised to Incorporate New Tax Code  -  2023
Revised to Incorporate New Tax Code - 2025
Revised to Incorporate New Tax Code  -  2030 and Beyond
Environmental Retrofits - Utility Owned
11.29%

10.77%
10.77%
10.77%
10.77%
Environmental Retrofits - Merchant Owned
15.62%

14.05%
14.05%
14.12%
14.54%
Advanced Combined Cycle
9.13%

8.64%
8.64%
8.66%
8.77%
Advanced Combustion Turbine
9.42%

9.02%
9.02%
9.02%
9.10%
Ultra-Supercritical Pulverized Coal without Carbon Capture
11.80%

10.96%
10.96%
11.01%
11.18%
Ultra-Supercritical Pulverized Coal with Carbon Capture
8.76%

8.31%
8.31%
8.32%
8.43%
Nuclear 
8.56%

8.31%
8.31%
8.33%
8.43%
Nuclear without Production Tax Credit
8.56%

8.31%
8.31%
8.33%
8.43%
Nuclear with Production Tax Credit
7.20%

7.10%
7.09%
7.10%
7.19%
Biomass
8.47%

8.14%
8.12%
8.12%
8.12%
Wind, Landfill Gas, Solar and Geothermal
10.00%

9.79%
9.78%
9.77%
9.77%
Hydro
8.53%

8.09%
8.09%
8.11%
8.21%

Table 38 Real Capital Charge Rate  -  IPP (%)
New Investment Technology Capital  (IPP)
Previous Capital Charge Rate  -  100% IPP
Revised to Incorporate New Tax Code - 2021
Revised to Incorporate New Tax Code - 2023
Revised to Incorporate New Tax Code - 2025
Revised to Incorporate New Tax Code  -  2030 and Beyond
Environmental Retrofits - Merchant Owned
                                    15.62%
                                    14.05%
                                    14.05%
                                    14.12%
                                    14.54%
Advanced Combined Cycle
                                    11.68% 
                                    10.89%
                                    10.89%
                                    10.97%
                                    11.33%
Advanced Combustion Turbine
                                    12.84%
                                    11.83%
                                    11.81%
                                    11.81%
                                    12.07%
Ultra-Supercritical Pulverized Coal without Carbon Capture
                                    15.90%
                                    14.05%
                                    14.06%
                                    14.23%
                                    14.78%
Ultra-Supercritical Pulverized Coal with Carbon Capture
                                    12.48%
                                    11.22%
                                    11.22%
                                    11.27%
                                    11.62%
Nuclear without Production Tax Credit
                                    11.99%
                                    11.22%
                                    11.22%
                                    11.29%
                                    11.62%
Nuclear with Production Tax Credit
                                     9.99%
                                     9.71%
                                     9.69%
                                     9.71%
                                    10.00%
Biomass
                                    10.83%
                                    10.60%
                                    10.56%
                                    10.53%
                                    10.53%
Wind, Landfill Gas, Solar and Geothermal
                                    11.92%
                                    11.77%
                                    11.73%
                                    11.70%
                                    11.70%
Hydro
                                    11.32%
                                    10.61%
                                    10.61%
                                    10.67%
                                    11.01%

Table 39 Real Capital Charge Rate  -  Utility (%)
New Investment Technology Capital Utility
Previous Capital Charge Rate  -  100% Utility
Revised to Incorporate New Tax Code - 2021
Revised to Incorporate New Tax Code - 2023
Revised to Incorporate New Tax Code - 2025
Revised to Incorporate New Tax Code  -  2030 and Beyond
Environmental Retrofits - Utility Owned
                                    11.29%
                                    10.77%
                                    10.77%
                                    10.77%
                                    10.77%
Advanced Combined Cycle
                                     8.06%
                                     7.67%
                                     7.67%
                                     7.67%
                                     7.67%
Advanced Combustion Turbine
                                     8.17%
                                     7.82%
                                     7.82%
                                     7.82%
                                     7.82%
Ultra-Supercritical Pulverized Coal without Carbon Capture
                                    10.20%
                                     9.63%
                                     9.63%
                                     9.63%
                                     9.63%
Ultra-Supercritical Pulverized Coal with Carbon Capture
                                     7.41%
                                     7.06%
                                     7.06%
                                     7.06%
                                     7.06%
Nuclear without Production Tax Credit
                                     7.36%
                                     7.06%
                                     7.06%
                                     7.06%
                                     7.06%
Nuclear with Production Tax Credit
                                     6.17%
                                     5.98%
                                     5.98%
                                     5.98%
                                     5.98%
Biomass
                                     7.36%
                                     7.08%
                                     7.08%
                                     7.08%
                                     7.08%
Wind, Landfill Gas, Solar and Geothermal
                                     9.18%
                                     8.94%
                                     8.94%
                                     8.94%
                                     8.94%
Hydro
                                     7.42%
                                     7.01%
                                     7.01%
                                     7.01%
                                     7.01%

Background, Caveats, Implications and Perspectives
Combined Cycle Parameters
As a reminder, the EPA Platform v6 financing assumptions and results include the following parameters for a new combined cycle (see Table 40).

Table 40 New Combined Cycle - Selected Unchanged Parameters (%)
Parameter 
                                     Value
Debt Equity Utility
                                     50:50
Debt Equity IPP  -  Combined Cycle
                                     55:45
ROE  -  Utility
                                      7.2
ROE  -  IPP
                                     12.16
Debt Interest Rate  -  Utility
                                     4.33
Debt Interest Rate  -  IPP
                                      7.2
Share of Utility and IPP in Blended Average
                                     70:30
State income tax rate 
                                     6.45
General Inflation Rate
                                     1.83
Risk Free Rate
                                     3.45

Capital Charge Rate Change  -  Illustrative Example of Price Impacts
In a competitive market, price equals marginal cost.  If a new combined cycle is the marginal new power plant, the lower capital charge rate would lower marginal cost and power price.  The determination of average wholesale power price involves many factors including reserve costs, fuel costs, the variation in demand and supply fundamentals, etc.  However, the average cost of a combined cycle correlates with long term average price if it is the marginal unit on a prolonged basis.  Therefore, to understand approximately the impact on power price of the change in the capital charge rate, the following calculation is presented in Table 41. 

If a new combined cycle costs approximately $1,000/kW to build, the new tax law lowers the annual levelized real costs by $4.90/kW (0.49 % percentage point change shown above in Table 37, times a capital cost of $1000/KW).  If the unit dispatches at an annual capacity factor of 55% , this reduction in capital charge rate decreases the levelized costs of the unit by $1.01/MWh.  If fuel costs are assumed to be $24.5/MWh and non-fuel operating and maintenance costs are assumed to be $5/MWh, the reduction in levelized real cost are about 2.1%.  The impact is less than the 5.3% decrease in the capital cost (i.e., a decrease of 2.1% as compared to a decrease of 5.3%) because two-thirds of the costs are not capital related. The summary results are shown in Table 41.
                                       
Table 41 Illustrative Costs of New Combined Cycle ($/MWh)
Cost
                                   Previous
                                    Revised
                                Absolute Change
                                   % Change
Fuel
                                     24.5
                                     24.5
                                       0
                                       0
Non Fuel Operating and Maintenance
                                      5.0
                                      5.0
                                       0
                                       0
Capital
                                     19.0
                                     18.0
                                      -1
                                     -5.3
Total
                                     48.5
                                     47.5
                                      -1
                                     -2.1
Capital Charge Rate Changes  -  Share of Total Income Tax Contribution to Capital Charge Rates
If under the previous corporate income tax law, the corporate tax rate was zero (i.e., no income taxes state or federal), and there were no other changes, the capital charge rate would have fallen from 9.15% to 8.06% (absolute decrease of 1.09%), or approximately 12% decrease on a percentage basis.  Thus, the 9.15% to 8.67% actual decrease of 0.48% percentage point is approximately 44% of the maximum decrease (0.48/1.09).      
                                       
	Table 42 Illustrative Capital Charge Rate - New Combined Cycle (%)	
                             Federal Tax Rate (%)
                Capital Charge Rate  -  New Combined Cycle (%)
                                      35
                                     9.15
                                      21
                                     8.67
                                       0
                                     8.06
         
Taxes and After-Tax Return on Equity Levels
This analysis assumes that the after tax required return on equity (ROE) does not increase.  However, it is possible that as the tax rate is lowered, the after tax cost of equity capital increases, all else held equal.  For illustration, see Figure 7-1 where the lowering of the tax increases the after tax ROE (Y-axis is return in percentage, and the x-axis is quantity of equity).  In this illustration, the vertical distance between the supply curves (for a given quantity of equity supplied to the market) going from no tax to a higher tax level is the extra return required to cover corporate income taxes.  As the tax rate decreases, the equilibrium point (intersection of demand and supply curves) implies greater investment and a higher after tax ROE.  This analysis would apply also to any tax reduction, and vice versa, all else held equal.

It is beyond the scope of the present analysis to try to estimate the effects of the change in tax rates on required returns.  The supply and demand for equity is economy wide and modeling it would require an analysis of the entire economy.  
                                       
Figure 7-1 Supply and Demand of Equity under Varying Tax Rates - Illustrative
                                       

List of tables that are directly uploaded to the web:

Table 2-2 Load Duration Curves used in EPA617_BC_46l_No45Q
Table 3-19 Regional Net Internal Demand in EPA617_BC_46l_No45Q
Table 4-47 Characteristics of Existing Nuclear Units in EPA617_BC_46l_No45Q
Table 4-49 Generating Units Not Included Due to Recent Announcements
Table 6-4 CO2 Storage Cost Curves in EPA617_BC_46l_No45Q
Table 6-5 CO2 Transportation Matrix in EPA617_BC_46l_No45Q