Document ID: FDA-2009-P-0405-0008
Agency: fda
Document Type: Supporting & Related Material
Title: 
Posted Date: 2009-09-30T04:00Z

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<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:297.75pt;top:744.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">- 1 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:112.70pt;top:107.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 18.00pt">Evaluation of the Potential for Bovine Spongiform</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:165.85pt;top:127.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 18.00pt">Encephalopathy in the United States</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:258.85pt;top:182.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 14.04pt">Joshua T. Cohen</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:267.50pt;top:198.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 14.04pt">Keith Duggar</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:259.95pt;top:214.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 14.04pt">George M. Gray</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:263.05pt;top:230.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 14.04pt">Silvia Kreindel</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:211.45pt;top:263.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 14.04pt">Harvard Center for Risk Analysis</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:213.60pt;top:279.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 14.04pt">Harvard School of Public Health</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:248.55pt;top:350.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 14.04pt">Hatim Abdelrahman</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:241.95pt;top:366.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 14.04pt">Tsegaye HabteMariam</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:266.05pt;top:382.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 14.04pt">David Oryang</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:258.60pt;top:398.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 14.04pt">Berhanu Tameru</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:192.15pt;top:430.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 14.04pt">Center for Computational Epidemiology</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:216.25pt;top:447.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 14.04pt">College of Veterinary Medicine</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:247.60pt;top:463.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 14.04pt">Tuskegee University</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:250.00pt;top:511.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 14.04pt">November 26, 2001</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:792.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:297.75pt;top:1536.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">- 2 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:864.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 14.04pt">Acknowledgments</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:898.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">This project benefited from information and advice from many individuals.  Any errors or</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:910.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">misstatements are due to the authors, not the many contributors.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:936.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The authors gratefully acknowledge Nathan E. Bauer (USDA-FSIS), Paul Brown (NIH),</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:948.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Linda Detwiler (USDA-APHIS), David W. Harlan (Taylor Byproducts, Inc), and Pedro Piccardo</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:961.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(Indiana University) for their scientific input and critical review of different sections of the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:974.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">manuscript. In addition we would like to thank the following individuals for providing scientific</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:986.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">input and support:</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:1012.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">John Adams, National Milk Producers Federation; Gary Adams, Texas A&M University; Judd</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:1024.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Aiken, University of Wisconsin-Madison; Steve Anderson, USDA-FSIS; Haluk Anil, Bristol</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:1037.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">University; David Asher, FDA; Harry Baker, Cambridge University; Mike Barry, Oklahoma City</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:1050.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Zoo; Robin Bolin, ConAgra Beef Company; David Bolton, New York State Institute for Basic</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:1062.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Research; Daniel Bohnenblust, Swiss Federal Statistical Office; Robert Brady, USDA-APHIS;</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:1075.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Gerald R. Bratton, Texas A&M University; Robert Brewer, USDA-FSIS; Moira Bruce, Institute</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:1087.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">for Animal Health, Neuropathogenesis Unit, Edinburgh; Bryan Dierlam, American Cattlemen's</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:1100.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Association; Herbert Budka, University of Vienna; Burt Mitchel, FDA; Terry Caviness, Caviness</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:1113.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Packing Company; Richard Cawthorrne, Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food, UK; Megna</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:1125.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Chakrabarti, Harvard Center for Risk Analysis; Lily Chounlamountry, USDA-FSIS; Nick</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:1138.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Chesnut, Union County Feedlot, New Mexico; Christl Donnelly, Oxford University; Nguyen</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:1151.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Chau, Harvard Center for Risk Analysis; John Clay, Dairy Records; Michelle Colby, Virginia-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:1163.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Maryland Regional College of Veterinary Medicine; Phillip Comer, DNV; Nancy Cook, Pet</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:1176.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Food Institute; Maria Correa, North Carolina State University; Barbara Corso, USDA-APHIS;</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:1189.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Randall Cutlip, USDA-Craig White, USDA-FSIS; Ken Crendell, DHI, UTHA; Arthur Davis,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:1201.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">USDA, NVSL; Dyan Daly, National Food Center, Dublin; Dave Dargatz, USDA-APHIS; Marcus</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:1214.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Doherr, BVET, Switzerland; Basil Eastwood, USDA-CSREES; Dan Englejohn, USDA-FSIS;</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:1227.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Lisa Ferguson, USDA-APHIS; Neil Ferguson, Oxford University; J. Fetrow, University of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:1239.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Minnesota; Lloyd Floyd, Kansas Dept. of Wildlife & Parks; Don Franco, National Renderers</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:1252.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Association, George Graber, FDA; Azra Ghani, Oxford University; Randy Gordon, National</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:1265.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Grain & Feed Association; Daniel Gould, Colorado State University; Temple Grandin, University</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:1277.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">of Illiniois; John Gray, USDA-APHIS; Dicky Griffin</FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">, </FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">University of Nebraska; Scott Hafner,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:1290.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">USDA-APHIS; Rachael Hamilton, American Meat Science Association; Jeff Hansen, Murphy</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:1302.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Farm Inc; Michael Hansen, Consumer’s Union; David Harbour, Bristol University; Dagmar</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:1315.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Heim, BVET, Office Veterinaire Federal,  Switzerland; Jud Heinrichs, Penn State University;</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:1328.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Christopher Helps, Bristol University; Peter Hewson, Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:1340.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Food, UK; Harold Hodges, BFD Corporation; Paul Honeyman, Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:1353.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">and Food, UK; Will Hueston, Virginia-Maryland Regional College of Veterinary Medicine; Nora</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:1366.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Hunter, Institute for Animal Health, Neuropathogenesis Unit, Edinburgh; James Ironside, CJD</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:1378.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Surveillance Unit, Edinburgh; J Hamir, USDA-ARS-NADC; Alan Jenny, USDA-APHIS, NVLS;</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:1391.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Janice Miller, USDA-ARS, NADC; Jeffrey Martin, VLA Lasswade, Scotland; Mark Hall,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:1404.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">USDA-APHIS-NVLS; John Honstead, FDA; Sherri Kochevar, ConAgra Beef Company; Chuck</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:1416.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Lambert, American Cattlemen’s Beef Association; John Lawrance, University of Iowa Extension</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:1429.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Service; T. Lindley, TAMA; Terry Lutz, USDA-AMS; Ernest Justus Lücker, -Liebig University;</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:1442.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Donna Malloy, USDA-APHIS; Jeronimo Mamaclay, USDA-FSIS; Danny Matthews, Ministry of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:1454.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Agriculture, Fisheries and Food, UK; Patrick McCaskey, USDA-FSIS; Dan McChesney, FDA;</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:1467.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Michael Miller, Colorado Division of Wildlife; Ray Millers, BFD Corporation; Sarah Muirhead,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:1480.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Feedstuff Magazine; Dennis K. Mullane, Taylor By-Products, Inc; H.D. Norman, USDA-ARS;</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:1492.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Greg Oliver,  Australian Quarantine and Inspection Service; Arnold Paft, USDA-NAH; George</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:1584.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:297.75pt;top:2328.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">- 3 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:1656.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Patrick, Taylor Packing Co. Inc; Alan Pernaa, United Cooperative Farmers Inc; Jody Pinter,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:1668.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">AgSource Cooperative Services; Burt Prichett, FDA; Teresa Platt, Fur Commission USA; Ilpo</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:1681.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Pölönen, Finnish Fur Breeders' Association; Jim Quigley, Animal Protein Corporation, Inc;</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:1694.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Rosalind Ridley, Cambridge University; Elisa Rubi, Direccion General de Salud Animal, Mexico;</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:1706.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">R. Rubinstein, NYS Institute for Basic Research in Developmental Disabilities, Staten Island,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:1719.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">NY; Larry Satter, USDA-ARS; Glen Schmidt, Colorado State University; Richard Sellers,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:1732.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">American Feed Industry Association; Chuck Schuad, University of New Hampshire; Mary Jo</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:1744.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Schmerr, USDA-ARS-NADC; Craig Shultz. USDA-FSIS; Bill Smith, USDA-APHIS; L. Smith,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:1757.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">National Nutrition Program Advisor, USDA; Charlie Sniffen, Miner Institute; Walt Solonynka,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:1770.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Conagra Beef Company; Robert Somerville, Institute for Animal Health, Neuropathogenesis</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:1782.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Unit, Edinburgh; John Spouge, DNV; Richard Theise, International Natural Casing Association;</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:1795.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">David Thomas, Extension Sheep Specialist, Madison, WI; Judy Thompson, Canadian Food</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:1807.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Inspection Agency; Donald Upton, United Cooperative Farmers Inc; Andrea Vicari, North</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:1820.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Carolina State University; James Voss, Colorado State University; Paul Walker, Illinois State</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:1833.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">University; Gary Weber, National Cattlemen's Beef Association; Gerald Wells, Central</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:1845.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Veterinary Laboratory, UK; Marion Weybridge, Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:1858.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">UK; John Wilesmith, Central Veterinary Laboratory, UK; Jim Wilkus, USDA-FSIS; Robert Will,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:1871.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">CJD Surveillance Unit, Edinburgh; Elizabeth Williams, University of Wyoming; Chris Toyne,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:1883.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Agriculture and Fisheries Branch, ABARE, Australia.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:2376.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:297.75pt;top:3120.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">- 4 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:263.90pt;top:2448.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Table of Contents</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:2479.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Acknowledgments</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:2502.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Executive Summary</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:2525.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">1 Introduction............................................................................................................................................. 1</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:2548.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">2 Background............................................................................................................................................. 3</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:100.00pt;top:2560.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">2.1</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:129.90pt;top:2560.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Overview of Transmissible Spongiform Encephalopathies (TSEs)................................................ 3</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:110.05pt;top:2571.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">2.1.1 Transmissibility....................................................................................................................... 5</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:110.05pt;top:2583.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">2.1.2</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:149.95pt;top:2583.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">The Species Barrier................................................................................................................. 7</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:110.05pt;top:2594.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">2.1.3 Susceptibility........................................................................................................................... 8</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:100.00pt;top:2606.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">2.2</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:129.90pt;top:2606.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">The Origin of the BSE Epidemic in the UK..................................................................................13</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:110.05pt;top:2617.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">2.2.1</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:149.95pt;top:2617.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Scrapie in Sheep.................................................................................................................... 13</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:110.05pt;top:2629.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">2.2.2</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:149.95pt;top:2629.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Infrequent Sporadic BSE ...................................................................................................... 15</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:110.05pt;top:2640.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">2.2.3</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:149.95pt;top:2640.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Toxic Agents and Other Hypotheses..................................................................................... 16</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:120.05pt;top:2652.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">2.2.3.1</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:159.85pt;top:2652.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Organophosphate (OP) Pesticides..................................................................................... 16</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:120.05pt;top:2663.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">2.2.3.2 Copper Deficiency ............................................................................................................ 17</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:120.05pt;top:2675.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">2.2.3.3</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:159.85pt;top:2675.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Heavy Metal Exposure...................................................................................................... 17</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:120.05pt;top:2686.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">2.2.3.4 Autoimmune Disease ........................................................................................................ 18</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:120.05pt;top:2698.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">2.2.3.5</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:159.85pt;top:2698.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Use of Pituitary Hormones................................................................................................ 18</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:120.05pt;top:2709.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">2.2.3.6 Wild African Antelope...................................................................................................... 19</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:100.00pt;top:2721.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">2.3</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:129.95pt;top:2721.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Sources of BSE Infectivity............................................................................................................ 19</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:110.05pt;top:2732.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">2.3.1 Spontaneous BSE.................................................................................................................. 19</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:110.05pt;top:2744.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">2.3.2</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:149.95pt;top:2744.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Importation of BSE Infectivity into the United States .......................................................... 21</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:120.05pt;top:2755.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">2.3.2.1</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:159.85pt;top:2755.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Importation of Live Cattle from the UK ........................................................................... 21</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:120.05pt;top:2767.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">2.3.2.2</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:159.85pt;top:2767.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Importation of Cattle from Continental Europe ................................................................ 21</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:120.05pt;top:2778.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">2.3.2.3</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:159.85pt;top:2778.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Importation of Cattle from Non-European Countries ....................................................... 22</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:120.05pt;top:2790.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">2.3.2.4</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:159.85pt;top:2790.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Imported MBM and Feed.................................................................................................. 22</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:110.05pt;top:2801.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">2.3.3 Domestic Scrapie .................................................................................................................. 23</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:110.05pt;top:2813.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">2.3.4</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:149.95pt;top:2813.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Chronic Wasting Disease:  Oral Exposure............................................................................ 24</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:110.05pt;top:2824.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">2.3.5</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:149.95pt;top:2824.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Chronic Wasting Disease:  Lateral Transmission ................................................................. 26</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:110.05pt;top:2836.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">2.3.6 Mink...................................................................................................................................... 26</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:110.05pt;top:2847.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">2.3.7 Pigs........................................................................................................................................ 27</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:120.05pt;top:2859.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">2.3.7.1</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:159.85pt;top:2859.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Potential Infectivity in Pigs due to TSE Infection............................................................. 28</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:120.05pt;top:2870.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">2.3.7.2</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:159.85pt;top:2870.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Potential Infectivity in Materials Consumed by Pigs........................................................ 30</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:110.05pt;top:2882.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">2.3.8 Poultry................................................................................................................................... 31</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:110.05pt;top:2893.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">2.3.9 Recycled Products................................................................................................................. 31</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:120.05pt;top:2905.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">2.3.9.1 Plate Waste........................................................................................................................ 32</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:120.05pt;top:2916.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">2.3.9.2 Gelatin............................................................................................................................... 33</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:120.05pt;top:2928.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">2.3.9.3 Milk................................................................................................................................... 33</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:120.05pt;top:2939.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">2.3.9.4</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:159.90pt;top:2939.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Blood and blood products ................................................................................................. 34</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:120.05pt;top:2951.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">2.3.9.5 Tallow ............................................................................................................................... 34</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:100.00pt;top:2962.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">2.4</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:129.95pt;top:2962.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Measures Taken to Protect Against BSE ......................................................................................34</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:110.05pt;top:2974.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">2.4.1</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:150.05pt;top:2974.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">General Issues Related to the Surveillance of BSE and the Deactivation of the BSE Agent 35</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:110.05pt;top:2985.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">2.4.2</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:149.95pt;top:2985.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Actions to Address BSE in the UK....................................................................................... 37</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:110.05pt;top:2997.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">2.4.3</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:149.95pt;top:2997.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Actions to Address BSE in Europe ....................................................................................... 39</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:110.05pt;top:3008.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">2.4.4</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:149.90pt;top:3008.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Measures to Prevent the Establishment of BSE in the United States Cattle Population ....... 41</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:110.05pt;top:3020.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">2.4.5</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:149.95pt;top:3020.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">BSE Surveillance in the United States ..................................................................................44</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:3043.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">3 Methodology......................................................................................................................................... 46</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:100.00pt;top:3054.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">3.1</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:129.95pt;top:3054.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Simulation Model and Base Case Assumptions............................................................................ 46</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:110.05pt;top:3066.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">3.1.1</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:149.95pt;top:3066.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Cattle Population Dynamics.................................................................................................. 47</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:3168.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:297.75pt;top:3912.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">- 5 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:120.05pt;top:3240.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">3.1.1.1</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:160.00pt;top:3240.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Size of Cattle Population, Birth Rates, Slaughter Rates, and Rates of Death due to Other</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:120.05pt;top:3251.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Causes</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:159.95pt;top:3251.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">48</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:120.05pt;top:3263.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">3.1.1.2</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:159.90pt;top:3263.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Cattle Consumption of Bypass protein and Blood Meal...................................................49</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:120.05pt;top:3274.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">3.1.1.3 BSE Dose-Response ......................................................................................................... 50</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:120.05pt;top:3286.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">3.1.1.4 Maternal Transmission...................................................................................................... 50</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:120.05pt;top:3297.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">3.1.1.5</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:159.90pt;top:3297.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">The BSE Incubation Period, and Time Until Death Caused by BSE................................ 51</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:110.05pt;top:3309.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">3.1.2</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:149.95pt;top:3309.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">The Slaughter Process........................................................................................................... 51</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:120.05pt;top:3320.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">3.1.2.1</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:159.85pt;top:3320.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Level of Infectivity and Distribution of Infectivity Throughout the Carcass.................... 51</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:120.05pt;top:3332.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">3.1.2.2</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:160.00pt;top:3332.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Antemortem </FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Inspection...................................................................................................... 54</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:120.05pt;top:3343.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">3.1.2.3 Stunning ............................................................................................................................ 55</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:120.05pt;top:3355.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">3.1.2.4 Exsanguination.................................................................................................................. 56</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:120.05pt;top:3366.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">3.1.2.5</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:159.85pt;top:3366.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Disposition of Brain.......................................................................................................... 56</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:120.05pt;top:3378.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">3.1.2.6</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:159.85pt;top:3378.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Splitting and Aerosolization.............................................................................................. 56</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:120.05pt;top:3389.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">3.1.2.7</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:159.85pt;top:3389.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Disposition of the Spinal Cord and Dorsal Root Ganglia ................................................. 57</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:120.05pt;top:3401.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">3.1.2.8 Postmortem Inspection...................................................................................................... 59</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:120.05pt;top:3412.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">3.1.2.9 Processing ......................................................................................................................... 60</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:110.05pt;top:3424.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">3.1.3</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:149.95pt;top:3424.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Rendering and Feed Production............................................................................................ 60</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:120.05pt;top:3435.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">3.1.3.1 Rendering Inactivation...................................................................................................... 61</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:120.05pt;top:3447.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">3.1.3.2</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:159.90pt;top:3447.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Meat and Bone Meal Production....................................................................................... 61</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:120.05pt;top:3458.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">3.1.3.3 Feed Production ................................................................................................................ 62</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:120.05pt;top:3470.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">3.1.3.4 On Farm Feeding .............................................................................................................. 64</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:110.05pt;top:3481.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">3.1.4</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:149.95pt;top:3481.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Potential Human Exposure.................................................................................................... 65</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:100.00pt;top:3493.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">3.2</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:129.95pt;top:3493.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Impact of Alternative Assumptions on Cattle Infected and Human BSE Exposure ..................... 67</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:110.05pt;top:3504.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">3.2.1</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:149.95pt;top:3504.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Maternal BSE transmission Assumptions............................................................................. 68</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:110.05pt;top:3516.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">3.2.2</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:149.95pt;top:3516.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Slaughter Process Assumptions ............................................................................................ 68</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:110.05pt;top:3527.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">3.2.3</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:149.95pt;top:3527.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Render and Feed Production Process Assumptions .............................................................. 69</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:110.05pt;top:3539.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">3.2.4</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:149.95pt;top:3539.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Proportion of Tissues Recovered for Human Consumption.................................................. 70</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:110.05pt;top:3550.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">3.2.5</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:149.95pt;top:3550.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Proportion of Animals That Die on Farm that Are Rendered ............................................... 70</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:110.05pt;top:3562.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">3.2.6</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:149.90pt;top:3562.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">The Possibility That BSE-Infected Cattle Carry Infectivity in Their Blood ......................... 70</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:110.05pt;top:3573.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">3.2.7</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:149.90pt;top:3573.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">The Possibility that Humans are Exposed to BSE Infectivity in Trigeminal Ganglia........... 71</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:100.00pt;top:3585.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">3.3</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:129.95pt;top:3585.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">The Base Case:  Impact of Alternative Sources of Infectivity ...................................................... 71</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:110.05pt;top:3596.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">3.3.1 Spontaneous BSE.................................................................................................................. 71</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:110.05pt;top:3608.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">3.3.2</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:149.95pt;top:3608.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Importation of Infected Cattle............................................................................................... 73</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:110.05pt;top:3619.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">3.3.3 Domestic Scrapie .................................................................................................................. 74</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:110.05pt;top:3631.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">3.3.4</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:149.95pt;top:3631.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Chronic Wasting Disease:  Oral Exposure............................................................................ 75</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:110.05pt;top:3642.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">3.3.5</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:149.95pt;top:3642.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Chronic Wasting Disease:  Lateral Transmission ................................................................. 77</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:110.05pt;top:3654.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">3.3.6 Mink...................................................................................................................................... 77</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:110.05pt;top:3665.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">3.3.7 Pigs........................................................................................................................................ 79</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:110.05pt;top:3677.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">3.3.8 Poultry................................................................................................................................... 79</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:110.05pt;top:3688.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">3.3.9 Recycled Waste..................................................................................................................... 79</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:100.00pt;top:3700.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">3.4</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:129.90pt;top:3700.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Alternative Scenarios Evaluated Using the Simulation Model ..................................................... 79</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:110.05pt;top:3711.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">3.4.1 Switzerland ........................................................................................................................... 79</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:110.05pt;top:3723.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">3.4.2</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:149.90pt;top:3723.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Spontaneous Disease as a Potential Source of Infectivity in the U.S.................................... 82</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:110.05pt;top:3734.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">3.4.3</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:149.95pt;top:3734.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Cattle Imported into the U.S. from the UK During the 1980s .............................................. 82</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:110.05pt;top:3746.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">3.4.4</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:149.95pt;top:3746.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Risk Management:  Specified Risk Materials (SRM) Ban.................................................... 83</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:110.05pt;top:3757.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">3.4.5</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:149.90pt;top:3757.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Risk Management:  A Ban on Rendering Animals that Die on the Farm ............................. 84</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:3780.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">4 Results................................................................................................................................................... 85</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:100.00pt;top:3792.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">4.1 Base Case...................................................................................................................................... 86</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:100.00pt;top:3803.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">4.2</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:129.90pt;top:3803.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Sensitivity Analyses and Alternative Assumptions.......................................................................87</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:110.05pt;top:3815.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">4.2.1 Sensitivity Analysis............................................................................................................... 88</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:110.05pt;top:3826.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">4.2.2</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:149.95pt;top:3826.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Inherent Infectivity in Blood................................................................................................. 89</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:110.05pt;top:3838.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">4.2.3</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:149.95pt;top:3838.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Harvesting of Trigeminal Ganglia ........................................................................................ 89</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:100.00pt;top:3849.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">4.3</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:129.90pt;top:3849.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Alternative Sources of Infectivity ................................................................................................. 89</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:110.05pt;top:3861.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">4.3.1 Spontaneous .......................................................................................................................... 90</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:110.05pt;top:3872.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">4.3.2 Imports.................................................................................................................................. 90</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:3960.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:297.75pt;top:4704.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">- 6 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:110.05pt;top:4032.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">4.3.3 Scrapie .................................................................................................................................. 91</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:100.00pt;top:4043.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">4.4 Alternative Scenarios .................................................................................................................... 92</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:110.05pt;top:4055.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">4.4.1 Switzerland ........................................................................................................................... 92</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:110.05pt;top:4066.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">4.4.2</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:149.95pt;top:4066.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Spontaneous With no Feed Ban ............................................................................................ 93</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:110.05pt;top:4078.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">4.4.3</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:149.95pt;top:4078.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Cattle Imported from the UK in the 1980s............................................................................ 94</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:110.05pt;top:4089.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">4.4.4</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:149.95pt;top:4089.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Specified Risk Material Ban ................................................................................................. 96</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:110.05pt;top:4101.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">4.4.5</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:149.90pt;top:4101.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Prohibition on Rendering Animals that Die on the Farm...................................................... 96</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:100.00pt;top:4112.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">4.5 Summary....................................................................................................................................... 97</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:4135.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">References: ................................................................................................................................................. 101</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:4158.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Figures</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:4181.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Appendix 1: Base Case Assumptions</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:4204.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Appendix 2: Assumptions for Simulations Other than the Base Case</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:4227.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Appendix 3A: Results – Tables</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:4250.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Appendix 3B:  Results – Figures</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:4273.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Appendix 3C: Description of Model Output Tables and Graphs</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:4752.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:4788.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Executive Summary</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:298.80pt;top:5496.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">- i -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:4824.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 14.04pt">Executive Summary</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:4858.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">In 1998 the United States Department of Agriculture asked the Harvard Center for Risk</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:4877.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Analysis to evaluate the robustness of U.S. measures to prevent the spread of bovine spongiform</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:4896.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">encephalopathy (BSE or “mad cow disease”) to animals and humans if it were to arise in this</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:4915.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">country.  BSE is a member of a family of diseases that includes scrapie in sheep and goats,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:4934.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">chronic wasting disease in certain North American deer and elk, transmissible mink</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:4953.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">encephalopathy, and the human ailments Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease, variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:4972.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">disease and Kuru.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:5010.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">We have developed a probabilistic simulation model to help characterize the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:5029.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">consequences of introducing BSE into the U.S. </FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">via </FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">various means.  Our model allows us to</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:5047.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">predict, for example, the number of newly infected animals that would result from introduction of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:5066.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">BSE, the time course of the disease following its introduction, and the potential for human</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:5085.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">exposure to infectious tissues.  We evaluate key processes and procedures that make the spread of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:5104.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">disease more or less likely. Results are presented as distributions reflecting the probabilistic</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:5123.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">nature of the model and the processes simulated.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:5161.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Our analysis finds that the U.S. is highly resistant to any introduction of BSE or a similar</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:5180.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">disease.  BSE is extremely unlikely to become established in the U.S.  For example, in a</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:5199.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">hypothetical scenario in which ten cattle infected with BSE are imported into the U.S., on average</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:5218.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">only three new cases of BSE would occur.  Moreover, the disease is virtually certain to be</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:5237.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">eliminated from the country within 20 years after its introduction.  These results assume that the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:5256.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">conditions affecting the spread of BSE in the U.S. would remain unchanged for the 20 years</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:5275.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">following its introduction.  The new cases of BSE would come primarily from lack of compliance</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:5294.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">with the regulations enacted to protect animal feed.  The import of one sick animal yields on</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:5313.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">average less than one new BSE case in 20 years and the disease and the disease is likely to be</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:5332.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">quickly eliminated from the U.S. following its introduction.  Similarly, there appears to be no</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:5351.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">potential for an epidemic of BSE resulting from scrapie, chronic wasting disease, or other cross-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:5370.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">species transmission of similar diseases found in the U.S.  Even if they existed, these hypothetical</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:5389.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">sources of BSE could give rise to only one to two cases per year.  Similarly, if the disease does</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:5408.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">indeed occur spontaneously in cattle, as some have suggested, it would result in one to two cases</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:5427.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">per year with little spread.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:5544.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:5580.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Executive Summary</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:297.50pt;top:6288.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:303.20pt;top:6288.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">ii -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:5616.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Only a small amount of potentially dangerous tissues would reach the human food supply</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:5635.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">and be available for possible human consumption.  We express the amount of infectivity in terms</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:5654.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">of cattle oral ID s for the purpose of quantifying both animal and human exposure to this agent.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:160.35pt;top:5659.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">50</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:5673.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">A cattle oral ID</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:159.05pt;top:5678.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">50</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:168.75pt;top:5673.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">is the amount of infectious tissue that would, on average, cause 50% of exposed</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:5692.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">cattle </FONT></u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">to develop BSE.  The relationship between human exposure quantified in terms of cattle</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:5711.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">oral ID s and likelihood of human disease is unknown, but European authorities suggest that the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:121.45pt;top:5716.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">50</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:5730.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">cattle disease may be 1,000 to 1,000,000 times less virulent in humans (SSC, 1999, SSC, 2000a).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:5749.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">In the entire 20 year period following the import of ten BSE-infected cattle, the mean estimate for</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:5767.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">the amount of infectivity potentially available for human exposure is 35 cattle oral ID s.  The</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:468.60pt;top:5773.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">50</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:5786.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">greatest sources of infectivity include consumption of cattle brain, spinal cord, and meat derived</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:5805.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">from advanced meat recovery systems.  Some potential exposure would result from the presence</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:5824.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">of spinal cord in certain bone-in cuts of beef, like T-bone steaks, and consumption of cattle</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:5843.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">intestines.  Potential human exposure resulting from spontaneous disease or cross-species</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:5862.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">transmission of scrapie are predicted to be less than 100 cattle oral ID s over 20 years.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:398.75pt;top:5867.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">50</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:5900.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Even in an extreme case, which we characterize using the 95 percentile of the output</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:394.45pt;top:5899.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">th</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:5919.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">distribution from the simulation, the import of ten animals leads to only 11 new cases of BSE</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:5938.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">over twenty years.  The 95 percentile value for potential human exposure is 170 cattle oral ID s</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:207.75pt;top:5937.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">th</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:509.50pt;top:5943.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">50</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:5957.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">over 20 years, approximately five times the mean value.  These predictions can be compared with</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:5976.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">the experience in the United Kingdom, where it is estimated that there were nearly one million</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:5995.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">infected animals and it is likely millions of cattle oral ID</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:340.70pt;top:6000.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">50s</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:353.15pt;top:5995.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">available for potential human</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:6014.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">exposure.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:6052.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Measures in the U.S. that are most effective at reducing the spread of BSE include the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:6071.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">ban on the import of live ruminants and ruminant meat and bone meal from the UK (since 1989)</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:6090.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">and all of Europe (since 1997) by USDA/APHIS, and the feed ban instituted by the Food and</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:6109.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Drug Administration in 1997 to prevent recycling of potentially infectious cattle tissues.  This</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:6128.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">feed ban greatly reduces the chance that BSE will spread from a sick animal back to other cattle</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:6147.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">through feed.  Our model reflects incomplete compliance with the FDA feed ban and we evaluate</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:6166.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">the potential risks of exceptions to the ban.  Measures instituted in meat packing plants by the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:6185.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">industry and USDA/FSIS have reduced the opportunity for infectious tissues to contaminate</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:6204.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">human food.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:6336.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:6372.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Executive Summary</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:296.00pt;top:7080.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:301.80pt;top:7080.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">iii -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:6408.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Specific pathways or practices that would contribute the most to the spread of BSE if it</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:6427.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">were introduced into the U.S. relate to compliance with the FDA feed ban and include misfeeding</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:6446.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">on the farm and the mislabeling of feed and feed products prohibited for consumption by cattle.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:6465.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The disposition of cattle that die on the farm would also have a substantial influence on the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:6484.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">spread of BSE if this disease were introduced into the U.S.  Factors that influence potential</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:6503.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">human exposure include the handling of brain and spinal cord in processing plants and how well</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:6522.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">inspectors would detect animals with BSE at slaughter.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:6559.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Our model is not amenable to formal validation because there are no controlled</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:6578.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">experiments in which the introduction and consequences of BSE introduction to a country has</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:6597.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">been monitored and measured.  However, as a test of the model’s plausibility, we modeled the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:6616.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">small BSE outbreak identified in Switzerland following the introduction of BSE infectivity from</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:6635.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">the UK.  Working with experts in Switzerland, we identified appropriate values for model</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:6654.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">parameters necessary to appropriately characterize that country’s practices and procedures and</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:6673.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">then simulated the introduction of BSE infectivity.  Our simulation took into account risk</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:6692.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">management actions, such as feed bans instituted by the Swiss.  The model’s predictions were</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:6711.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">reasonably close to empirical observations.  For example, the model predicted that during the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:6730.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Swiss outbreak, there would be 170 animals that developed clinical signs of disease.  To date, the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:6749.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Swiss have detected 398 animals with BSE.  The time course of the outbreak predicted by the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:6768.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">model also reasonably resembled the pattern observed in Switzerland.  The ability of the model to</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:6787.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">reasonably replicate the magnitude and time course of the Swiss outbreak gives some confidence</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:6806.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">in the structure of our model, especially in light of the many unknown factors associated with this</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:6825.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">episode.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:6863.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">We also evaluated the potential for BSE to have entered the U.S. prior to the 1989 ban on</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:6882.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">the import of UK cattle.  BSE has not been detected in the U.S. despite 12 years of active</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:6901.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">surveillance of high-risk animals.  Yet several groups, including the European Union in their</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:6920.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Geographically Based Risk Assessment of the U.S. (SSC, 2000b), have highlighted the 334</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:6939.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">animals brought into the U.S. from the UK between 1980 and 1989.  These animals were</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:6958.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">imported as breeding stock, not as beef or dairy production animals.  This fact is likely to have</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:6977.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">reduced their potential for exposure to BSE before their export from the UK.  In addition, none of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:6996.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">these animals came from a farm on which there was a case of BSE in animals from the same birth</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:7015.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">cohort (same birth farm and year).  Many came into the U.S. before BSE was even a recognized</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:7034.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">disease (the first case was confirmed in the UK in 1986).  The USDA has identified and traced</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:7128.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:7164.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Executive Summary</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:296.25pt;top:7872.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">- iv -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:7200.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">the disposition of these animals and has verified that 161 were disposed of in a manner that poses</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:7219.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">no risk to humans or other animals.  However, the Department has not been able to conclusively</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:7238.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">make this determination for the remaining 173 animals.  Using data identifying the year of birth,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:7257.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">the year of import, the date of the animal’s last known sighting, and information characterizing</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:7276.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">the time course of the disease following infection, we have estimated the theoretical amount of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:7295.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">BSE infectivity that could have theoretically been introduced into the U.S. from these 173</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:7314.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">animals.  We then used this estimate in our model to predict the possible consequences in the U.S.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:7351.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Our analysis concludes that there is more than an 80% chance that the import of these</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:7370.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">animals resulted in no exposure of U.S. cattle to BSE infectivity.  Even if U.S. animals were</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:7389.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">exposed to BSE, there is a significant chance that the exposure resulted in no new cases of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:7408.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">disease.  Our analysis indicates that there is only a small chance that BSE spread to U.S. cattle but</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:7427.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">that the number of cases was sufficiently small to avoid detection by U.S. government</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:7446.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">surveillance.  The analysis also shows that if these imports did introduce BSE into the U.S.,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:7465.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">measures taken by the government and industry during the last five years will have arrested the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:7484.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">disease and begun to eradicate it.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:7522.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Our evaluation of potential risk mitigation actions highlights potential measures to further</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:7541.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">reduce the already low likelihood that BSE could spread to cattle or contaminate human food if it</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:7560.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">were to arise.  Prohibiting the rendering of animals that die on the farm, possibly of BSE,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:7579.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">removes a great deal of potential contamination in the animal feed chain and reduces average</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:7598.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">predicted cases of BSE following introduction of ten infected cattle by 77%.  Implementation of a</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:7617.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">UK-style ban on specified risk material (</FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">e.g.</FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">, spinal cords, brains, vertebral columns) from both</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:7636.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">human food and animal feed reduces the predicted number of BSE cases in cattle by 80% and the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:7655.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">potential human exposure by 95%.  These measures serve as examples of the types of evaluations</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:7674.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">of alternative risk management strategies that can be conducted using the model.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:7712.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">In summary, measures taken by the U.S. government and industry make the U.S. robust</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:7731.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">against the spread of BSE to animals or humans should it be introduced into this country.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:7750.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Preventing sick animals or contaminated feed from entering the country, ensuring compliance</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:7769.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">with the FDA feed ban, and reducing the potential for infectious tissues to enter the animal or</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:7788.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">human food supply will ensure that these risks remain low. If BSE has been introduced into the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:7807.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">U.S., as has been suggested by some observers, the course of the disease has been arrested and it</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:7826.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">is destined for eradication by the measures currently in place.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:7920.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:7956.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Executive Summary</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:297.70pt;top:8664.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">- v -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:8712.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:8748.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 1</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:297.75pt;top:9456.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">- 1 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:8784.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 14.04pt">1 Introduction</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:8818.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) is a disease of cattle that was first documented</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:8837.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">in the United Kingdom in 1986.  It has since spread to several countries in Europe, and most</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:8856.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">recently to Japan.  The disease causes the degeneration of central nervous system (CNS) function,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:8875.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">ultimately leading to death in all cases.  Perhaps more worrisome is the possibility that meat</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:8894.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">products contaminated with BSE infectivity can cause a human form of this illness, known as</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:284.05pt;top:8892.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">1</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:8913.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease, or vCJD.  Like BSE, vCJD causes CNS degeneration and is</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:8932.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">always fatal.  Unlike many other animal-borne diseases, the agent thought to be responsible for</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:8951.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">BSE and possibly vCJD is at least partially resistant to destruction by standard cooking practices,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:8970.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">sterilization procedures, and processes used to recycle bovine protein prior to its use as a feed</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:8989.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">supplement.  For that reason, the presence of BSE can lead to the spread of disease among other</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:9007.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">animals, and potential health risks for people.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:9045.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Although there has never been a case of BSE documented in the United States, the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:9064.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">potential for the disease to spread, and the potential threat it poses to people if it were to arise has</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:9083.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">raised concern in this country.  In order to better characterize the nature of these risks, the United</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:9102.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">States Department of Agriculture (USDA) commissioned the Harvard Center for Risk Analysis to</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:9121.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">conduct a study of BSE in the U.S.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:9159.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">This study was undertaken to investigate potential pathways by which BSE or other TSEs</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:9178.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">could arise in the United States (U.S.) cattle population .  In particular, the analysis describes the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:335.05pt;top:9177.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">2</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:9197.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">use of a quantitative simulation model that characterizes how the introduction of BSE would</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:9216.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">affect animal health over time, and the extent to which it could result in human exposure to</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:9235.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">contaminated food products.  The ability of this model to quantify various aspects of the disease’s</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:9254.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">progression (</FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">e.g., </FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">number of animals infected over time, quantity of the transmissible agent in</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:9273.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">food presented for human consumption) distinguishes it from other efforts to characterize BSE</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:9292.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">risk, such as the European Union’s Scientific Steering Committee report on the Geographical</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:9311.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Risk of Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (SSC 2000).  We have used the simulation model to</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:90pt;top:9336pt;width:144pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:9340.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.48pt">1</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:95.70pt;top:9342.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Although the exact etiology of BSE is uncertain, in many respects the transmission of the disease can be</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:9353.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">evaluated as though it arises from an infectious agent. Because the nature of the agent is still a matter of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:9365.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">some scientific debate, we use the term “infectivity” to characterize materials that can transmit the disease</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:9376.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">from one animal to another or potentially from animals to people.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:9386.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.48pt">2</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:95.70pt;top:9387.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">For the purpose of the study, “other TSEs” are defined to be naturally occurring animal prion diseases that</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:9399.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">if present in cattle, will manifest with clinical and histopathological characteristics that are similar to those</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:9504.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:9540.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 1</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:297.75pt;top:10248.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">- 2 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:9576.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">determine the impact of possible past introductions of BSE into the US, to identify those risk</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:9595.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">management control options that most influence the spread of disease, and to identify those</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:9614.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">sources of uncertainty that have the greatest impact on our results.  This information can be used</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:9633.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">to help identify the most promising control measures and to prioritize data collection and research</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:9652.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">efforts.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:9690.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The analysis is not a complete human health risk assessment in two respects.  First, we do</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:9709.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">not quantify the probability that BSE will be introduced into the U.S.  Hence, all our risk</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:9727.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">estimates are conditional on hypothetical scenarios.  Second, although we quantify potential</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:9746.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">human exposure to BSE-contaminated food products, we do not estimate how many people will</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:9765.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">contract variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease (vCJD).  We have omitted quantitative treatment of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:9784.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">both of these issues because the available information is inadequate.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:9822.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The remainder of this study is organized as follows.  Section 2 first describes the different</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:9841.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">types of TSEs, their characteristics, theories as to the origin of the BSE epidemic in the UK, and</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:9860.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">measures taken to control the spread of BSE. Next, pathways for the introduction of disease are</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:9879.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">discussed in further detail, including the potential for spontaneous development of BSE,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:9898.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">transmission from another species in the U.S. with a prion disease, importation of BSE-infected</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:9917.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">cattle, or use of cattle rations that may contain contaminated material.  Section 3 describes our</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:9936.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">methodology, including the simulation model used in this analysis and the specific scenarios</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:9955.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">evaluated.  Section 4 summarizes our results, and concludes with a discussion of our findings.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:90pt;top:10196pt;width:432pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:10201.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">associated with cattle BSE.  For the remainder of this document, the term “BSE” will collectively refer to</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:10212.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">BSE and to these other TSEs.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:10296.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:10332.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 2</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:297.75pt;top:11040.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">- 3 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:10368.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 14.04pt">2 Background</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:10402.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">This section provides background for the analysis described in this report.  Section 2.1</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:10421.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">outlines the characteristics of transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs), the class of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:10440.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">diseases to which BSE belongs.  Section 2.2 reviews the hypotheses advanced for the origin of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:10459.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">the BSE epidemic in the UK.  Section 2.3 describes potential pathways by which BSE could be</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:10478.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">introduced into the U.S.  Finally, Section 4 reviews regulatory actions taken by governments</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:10497.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">around the world to slow the spread of this disease.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:10535.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 12.00pt">2.1</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:10535.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 12.00pt">Overview of Transmissible Spongiform Encephalopathies (TSEs)</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:10566.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs), also known as prion diseases, are a</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:10585.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">family of rare, slowly progressive, and uniformly fatal neurodegenerative disorders that affect</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:10604.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">humans and animals.  All of these diseases have incubation periods of months to years between</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:10623.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">infection and the onset of clinical signs.  The prevailing hypothesis is that these diseases are</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:10642.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">caused by novel agents called prions.  In humans, prion diseases may present as genetic,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:10661.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">infectious, or sporadic disorders, and all involve the modification of the prion protein.  Known</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:10680.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">TSEs include:</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:10718.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Symbol" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">•</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:10719.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Creuzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD), Kuru, Gerstmann-Straüssler-Sckeinker (GSS),</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:10732.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">and Fatal Familial Insomnia (FFI) in humans;</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:10755.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Symbol" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">•</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:10756.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Scrapie in sheep and goats;</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:10779.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Symbol" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">•</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:10780.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Transmissible Mink Encephalopathy (TME) in mink;</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:10804.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Symbol" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">•</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:10805.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Chronic Wasting Disease (CWD) of deer and elk; and</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:10828.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Symbol" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">•</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:10829.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) in cattle.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:10872.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Other examples, such as Feline Spongiform Encephalopathy (FSE), are thought to be the result of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:10891.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">cross-species transmission of a TSE (BSE in the case of FSE).  Variant CJD (vCJD) is a newly</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:10910.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">discovered TSE of humans and is likely the result of exposure to the BSE agent.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:10948.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The first records of TSEs date back to the early 18 century (Stockman, 1913, Brown and</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:349.20pt;top:10946.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">th</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:10967.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Bradley, 1998), with the mention of scrapie in sheep.  The name of the disease reflects its</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:10986.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">associated clinical signs, including the tendency of the sheep to scrape off their wool on fences or</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:11088.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:11124.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 2</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:297.75pt;top:11832.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">- 4 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:11160.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">other objects.  Experimental transmission of scrapie to other species, such as mice and goats,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:11179.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">demonstrated that the disease was transmissible and had a very long incubation period (Cullie and</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:11198.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Chelle, 1936, Cullie and Celle, 1939, Pattison et al., 1959).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:11236.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">During the 1950s, many scientists became interested in Kuru, a fatal disease that affected</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:11255.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">the Fore population of Papua, New Guinea.  Kuru is  characterized by neurologic signs and</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:11274.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">neuropathologic changes similar to those of scrapie (Zigas and Gajdusek, 1957, Klatzo et al.,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:11293.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">1957, Alpers, 1970).  These similarities were pointed out by Hadlow in 1959, who suggested that</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:11311.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Kuru might also be transmissible to other animals (Hadlow, 1959).  Subsequently, Gadujsek and</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:11330.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">his colleagues succeeded in transmitting Kuru to chimpanzees (Gajdusek et al., 1966).  This</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:11349.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">experiment supported the hypothesis that Kuru is transmitted by an infectious mechanism (</FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">i.e</FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">.,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:11368.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">ritualistic cannibalism).  Later, other spongiform encephalopathies were found to be</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:11387.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">transmissible, including CJD, FFI, TME, CWD, and BSE.  To date, most of the experimental data</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:11406.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">on TSEs comes from studies of CJD and scrapie.  More recently, BSE has become an area of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:11425.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">active research.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:11463.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The specific agent responsible for TSE diseases has not been identified with certainty, but</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:11482.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">the leading theory suggests that the etiologic agent is an abnormally configured protein normally</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:11501.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">encoded by the host (prion protein or PrP) (Bolton et al., 1982, Prusiner, 1982, Prusiner, 1994,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:11521.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Prusiner, 1998).  Normal prion protein (PrP ) is soluble in detergents and has a predominantly</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:283.00pt;top:11520.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">c</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:508.20pt;top:11520.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Symbol" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">α</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:515.05pt;top:11521.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:11540.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">helical structure.  In contrast, abnormal PrP (PrP ) is insoluble in detergents, relatively resistant</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:304.80pt;top:11539.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">sc</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:11560.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">to proteases, and has a predominantly</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:259.20pt;top:11559.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Symbol" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">β</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:265.70pt;top:11560.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">-sheet secondary structure.  Although still a matter of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:11580.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">controversy, PrP</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:163.60pt;top:11578.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">sc</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:172.20pt;top:11580.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">appears to accumulate in an infected host and eventually cause disease (Bueler</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:11598.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">et al., 1993, Manson et al., 1999, Hsiao et al., 1991, Telling et al., 1995, Hill et al., 2000).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:11617.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Deposits of PrP</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:159.50pt;top:11616.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">sc</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:168.15pt;top:11617.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">in tissues are associated with the presence of transmissible infectivity</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:11636.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(McKinley et al., 1983).  Additionally, PrP</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:280.00pt;top:11635.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">sc</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:288.60pt;top:11636.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">is the only molecular marker specific for TSE</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:11655.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">infections.  Spongiform degeneration, neuronal vacuolation, and gliosis appear to be associated</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:11674.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">with abnormal PrP deposition.  Remarkably, TSE infection has been reported in the absence of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:11693.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">detectable PrP</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:153.75pt;top:11692.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">sc</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.40pt;top:11693.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(Lasmezas et al., 1997) and PrP</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:302.55pt;top:11692.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">sc</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:311.15pt;top:11693.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">formed </FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">in vitro</FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">, by conversion of PrP , has not</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:476.50pt;top:11692.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">c</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:11712.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">yet produced disease in animal bioassays (Hill et al., 1999). The etiologic agent is not inactivated</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:11731.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">by treatments that usually destroy bacteria and viruses (Kimberlin et al., 1983, Taylor, 1991b,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:11750.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Taylor, 1991a, Taylor, 1993).  No immune response to the agent has been detected.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:11880.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:11916.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 2</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:297.75pt;top:12624.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">- 5 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:11952.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">An alternative hypothesis to the prion theory, referred to as the virino model, proposes</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:11971.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">that the agent consists of a small nucleic acid that acts as an informational molecule, and that this</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:11990.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">molecule is protected by the host PrP (Dickinson and Outram, 1988).  Despite several attempts</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:12009.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(Borras and Gibbs, 1986, Duguid et al., 1988), no exogenous nucleic acid has been identified in</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:12028.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">experimental TSE.  The virino model suggests different genetic “strains” of the agent are</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:12047.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">responsible for the phenotypic variability in the disease.  The protein only (prion) hypothesis</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:12066.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">proposes that conformational isoforms of PrP are responsible for such variability.  Another theory</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:12085.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">proposes that TSEs are caused by conventional viruses (Diringer et al., 1994, Manuelidis et al.,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:12103.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">1995).  However, no infection-specific nucleic acid has yet been detected.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:12141.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The mechanisms by which infection occurs for most naturally occurring TSEs are</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:12160.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">uncertain.  Different animal TSEs appear to be passed in part by lateral transmission and perhaps</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:12179.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">by maternal transmission to offspring in natural settings.  The human spongiform</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:12198.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">encephalopathies are considered to be either sporadic, inherited, or acquired by an infectious</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:12217.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">mechanism (Masters et al., 1978, McLean et al., 1998, Hsiao and Prusiner, 1990, Brown et al.,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:12236.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">1994a, Will et al., 1996).  Finally, there is evidence that for some TSE diseases, susceptibility has</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:12255.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">a genetic component (Poulter et al., 1992, Carlson et al., 1994, Hunter et al., 1996, Hunter, 1997,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:12274.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Hunter et al., 1997a, Bossers et al., 1997, Goldmann et al., 1996).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:12312.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The remainder of this section has three parts.  Section 2.1.1 discusses the means by which</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:12331.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">TSEs are passed from one animal to another, and perhaps from animals to humans.  Section 2.1.2</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:12350.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">introduces the concept of the “species barrier,” a phenomenon that makes passage of a TSE from</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:12369.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">one species to another far less “efficient” (and hence less likely) than passage between animals of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:12388.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">the same species.  Finally, Section 2.1.3 discusses susceptibility, </FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">i.e.</FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">, the tendency for some</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:12407.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">animals to be more likely than others to become infected following exposure to the infective</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:12426.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">agent.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:12464.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">2.1.1 Transmissibility</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:12495.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">TSE diseases can be passed from an infected individual to others under only certain</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:12514.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">conditions.  While the potential for natural transmission has been demonstrated only for some</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:12533.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">TSEs, transmission in an experimental setting has been demonstrated for most.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:12672.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:12708.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 2</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:297.75pt;top:13416.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">- 6 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:12744.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Transmission of a TSE disease from one human to another appears to be limited to cases</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:12763.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">of “iatrogenic transmission,” associated with surgery, use of cadaveric hormones, and ritualistic</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:12782.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">cannibalism. Iatrogenic transmission is the only known route of transmission for CJD.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:12801.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Documented cases have involved the use of contaminated silver electrodes used for stereotactic</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:12820.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">electroencephalography, the use of contaminated neurosurgical instruments (Collinge and Palmer,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:12839.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">1997), and the use of contaminated tissues in transplant procedures (cornea, dura mater).  The use</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:12858.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">of contaminated hormones preparations (growth hormone or gonadotropin prepared from</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:12877.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">cadaveric pituitary glands) has been linked to transmission of TSEs in humans.  Kuru has been</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:12895.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">transmitted from person to person as the result of ritualistic cannibalism in the people of Papua,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:12914.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">New Guinea.  In this case, the most likely route of exposure was </FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">via </FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">ingestion, although</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:12933.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">transdermal or mucous membrane exposure cannot be ruled out.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:12971.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Transmission of TSE diseases from one animal to another of the same species in the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:12990.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">absence of experimental intervention has been extensively documented in the case of sheep-borne</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:13009.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">scrapie (Hadlow et al., 1982).  The mechanism by which other sheep in the same flock become</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:13028.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">infected appears to be associated with exposure to infected placenta (Race et al., 1998), although</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:13047.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">other routes of exposure may also play a role in transmission.  In sheep, transmission has also</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:13066.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">been linked to the use of vaccines (Gordon, 1939, Gordon, 1946, Gordon, 1959, Agrimi et al.,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:13085.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">1999).  Natural transmission has also been identified in CWD (Williams and Young, 1982).  In</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:13104.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">the case of CWD, it has been postulated that transmission is caused by pasturing on ground</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:13123.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">occupied by infected animals (Miller et al., 1998).  Presumably, some long-lived agent in the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:13142.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">environment can pass the disease between individuals (Skarphedinsson et al., 1994, Sigurdson,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:13161.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">1991).  Naturally occurring mutations capable of causing the disease have not been identified in</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:13180.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">animals (Chesebro, 1999).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:13218.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Several species and animal breeds have been used as experimental models for TSEs,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:13237.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">including mice, hamsters, and non-human primates.  Results from these experiments indicate that</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:13256.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">natural (oral) transmission is substantially </FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">less efficient </FONT></u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">than transmission </FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">via </FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">intracerebral (i.c.)</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:13275.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">injection, the procedure usually used for transmission in experimental models.  For example, in</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:13294.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">the case of BSE, transmission </FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">via </FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">oral ingestion is as much as 100,000 times less efficient than</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:13313.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">i.c. injection (for a review of the literature, see (SSC, 2000b)).  Experimental data using a TSE</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:13332.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">mouse model indicate that intravenous injection produces disease five to seven times less</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:13351.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">efficiently than i.c. injection (Brown et al., 1999).  Finally, intra-peritoneal (i.p.) administration of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:13464.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:13500.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 2</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:297.75pt;top:14208.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">- 7 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:13536.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">infectivity is estimated to be 100 times less efficient than i.c. transmission (Kimberlin and</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:13555.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Walker, 1988).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:13593.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">2.1.2</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:13593.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The Species Barrier</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:13623.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Interspecies transmission of TSEs is mitigated by a so called “species barrier”.  This</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:13642.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">barrier represents the decreased efficiency with which TSEs are passed from one animal to a</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:13661.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">second animal of a different species, compared with the efficiency with which the TSE is passed</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:13680.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">among animals of the same species.  That is, a much greater amount of infective material is</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:13699.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">necessary to infect an animal from a different species than is needed to pass the disease to an</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:13718.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">animal of the same species.  The species barrier is also associated with an increase in the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:13737.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">disease’s incubation period (</FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">i.e.</FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">, the delay between exposure to the agent resulting in infection</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:13756.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">and the manifestation of disease).  In some instances the species barrier seems to confer complete</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:13775.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">resistance to transmission.  It is at least conceptually possible that an animal failing to develop the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:13794.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">disease following cross species challenge would become infected if administered a sufficiently</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:13813.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">large dose of infectivity, or would manifest clinical signs of disease if it somehow lived longer</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:13832.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">than the incubation period associated with the species barrier (Hill et al., 2000).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:13870.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Although transmission of a TSE from one species to another may be less efficient than</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:13889.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">the transmission within the same species, once it occurs, the TSE may become “adapted” to the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:13908.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">new host.  Because it has adapted to the new species, it can be transmitted more efficiently among</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:13927.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">members of that species, and the incubation period becomes shorter and less variable.  For</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:13946.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">example, when scrapie is transmitted experimentally from one species to another, the incubation</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:13965.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">period is usually longer in the first passage than that seen in subsequent passages within the new</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:13984.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">species (Dickinson et al., 1976).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:14022.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The species barrier probably reflects some combination of factors including differences</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:14041.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">between the donor’s and recipient PrP.  Scrapie studies conducted in mice, rats, and hamsters</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:14060.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">demonstrate the presence of a species barrier.  These findings include pathogenesis differences</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:14079.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">between the first and subsequent passages in the new species, and how rapidly the transmitted</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:14098.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">strain replicates in the new host (Kimberlin et al., 1987, Kimberlin and Walker, 1989), and others.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:14136.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The response of some TSEs exhibits heterogeneity within a species, a characteristic that</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:14154.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">appears to be due to the existence of different strains of the agent.  Strains are distinguished by</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:14256.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:14292.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 2</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:297.75pt;top:15000.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">- 8 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:14328.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">highly replicable differences in the incubation period, neuropathology, and host range (Fraser and</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:14347.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Dickinson, 1968, Bruce et al., 1989).  CJD, scrapie, TME, and CWD show strain diversity, while</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:14366.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">BSE appears to be a single, stable strain (Bruce et al., 1994, Bruce et al., 1997).  vCJD (</FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">i.e</FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">., the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:14385.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">new form of CJD related to exposure to the BSE agent) does not demonstrate morphologic strains</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:14404.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(Will et al., 1996, Hill et al., 1997, Bruce et al., 1997, Scott et al., 1999).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:14442.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Recipient characteristics also affect the efficiency with which TSEs are transmitted</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:14461.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">across species.  Some species, such as rabbits or chickens, do not develop disease when</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:14479.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">challenged with specific TSEs, while other species do.  It has been postulated that the similarities</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:14498.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">between the PrP structure between the donor and the recipient explain the differences in</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:14517.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">transmission efficiency (Priola et al., 1994, Raymond et al., 2000).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:14555.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Because the presence of a TSE agent is often assessed by inoculating a test species (</FONT></FONT><i><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">e.g.,</FONT></FONT></i></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:14574.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">mice) with the suspect material, the species barrier compromises the sensitivity of these</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:14593.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">bioassays.  Cattle-to-cattle transmission of BSE by the intracerebral route is known to be 1,000</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:14612.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">times more efficient than cattle-to-mouse transmission by the same route (MAFF, 2000b).  It is</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:14631.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">often assumed that the species barrier decreases transmission efficiency by a factor of between 1</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:14650.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(no decrease) and 1,000 (Det Norske Veritas, 1997).  The assumption that the species barrier is 1</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:14669.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(</FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">i.e.</FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">, that there is effectively no species barrier) is considered to be a worst-case scenario.  In an</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:14688.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">opinion on the species barrier for transmission of BSE from cattle to humans, the EU Scientific</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:14707.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Steering Committee suggested that plausible values for the impact of the species barrier on</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:14726.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">transmission efficiency range from between 1 and 100,000 (SSC, 1999a).  This range was later</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:14745.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">updated to between 10 and 100,000 (SSC, 2000b).  However, the committee concluded that it is</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:14764.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">impossible to estimate the true value for BSE species barrier between cattle and humans within an</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:14783.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">order of magnitude given current knowledge (SSC, 2000b).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:14821.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">2.1.3 Susceptibility</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:14852.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">“Susceptibility" refers to the likelihood of becoming infected following a specific</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:14871.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">exposure to the infective agent.  Susceptibility to TSEs appears to depend on specific interactions</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:14890.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">between the agent, the host, and the environment (</FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">e.g</FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">., animal age, PrP primary structure of the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:14909.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">host, PrP characteristics of the recipient animal, route of exposure, and dose of agent).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:15048.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:15084.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 2</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:297.75pt;top:15792.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">- 9 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:15120.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Mutations and polymorphisms of the PrP gene are associated with many TSEs in humans,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:15139.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">sheep, mice, and possibly elk. Humans and sheep are the two species for which spongiform</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:15158.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">encephalopathies apparently occur naturally and in which there are recognized genetic</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:15177.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">components that predispose individuals to disease.  In the case of scrapie, there is evidence that</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:15196.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">the disease does not develop spontaneously, but instead requires exposure to an infective agent</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:15215.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(Hunter et al., 1996, Hunter and Cairns, 1998).  In the case of human disease, studies conducted</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:15234.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">using in transgenic mice that over express mutant PrP [P101L (corresponding to PrP P102L in</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:15253.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">humans)] have shown that Gerstmann-Straüssler Skeinker might be a genetically induced illness</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:15271.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(Hsiao et al., 1991, Hsiao et al., 1994).  However, recent research using transgenic mice that are</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:15290.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">normal expressers of mutant PrP failed to demonstrate development of the spontaneous TSE</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:15309.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(Manson et al., 1999), suggesting that the mutation may increase susceptibility to infection</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:15328.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(Weissmann and Aguzzi, 1999, Manson et al., 1999), rather than cause the disease on its own.  In</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:15347.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">contrast, in cattle, susceptibility to BSE has not yet been shown to be associated with</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:15366.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">polymorphism in the PrP gene (Hunter et al., 1994).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:15404.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">An important physiologic factor that is likely to affect susceptibility to infection is the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:15423.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">age of the animal.  For example, young cattle are estimated to be ten times more susceptible than</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:15442.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">adults, with data well described by a model that assumes susceptibility declines exponentially</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:15461.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">with an annual rate constant of 0.85 after the age of four months, with susceptibility ultimately</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:15480.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">declining to 10% of its peak value (Koeijer et al., In press).  An alternative estimate computed by</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:15499.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">back calculating a model of the UK BSE epidemic suggests that susceptibility peaks at 1.31 years</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:15518.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">and decreases in the following years (Anderson et al., 1996).  Other investigators estimated that</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:15537.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">susceptibility in cattle peaks between 0.5 to 1.5 years of age (Woolhouse and Anderson, 1997).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:15556.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Age-related susceptibility is hypothesized to be associated with permeability of the intestine to</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:15575.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">large proteins and with the development of the Peyer’s Patches (PP).  The PP seem to play a role</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:15594.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">in the pathogenesis of the prion diseases and to influence the susceptibility of the animal to</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:15613.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">infection.  For example, in sheep, the ileal PP are shown to be more active and to be largest when</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:15632.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">the animal is around 2-3 months old and to disappear when the animal reaches an age of one and</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:15651.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">one-half years (Griebel and Hein, 1996).  The appearance of the PP in sheep appears to coincide</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:15670.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">with the period of greatest susceptibility of sheep to scrapie (Hadlow et al., 1982, Andreoletti et</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:15689.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">al., 2000).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:15727.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Age-related susceptibility may be an important factor in understanding BSE transmission</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:15746.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">because potential exposure to BSE-contaminated feed (see Section 2.2 and Section 3.1.1.2 below)</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:15840.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:15876.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 2</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.20pt;top:16584.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.90pt;top:16584.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">10 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:15912.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">can also change with age.  The ages at which animals are exposed depends on when they receive</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:15931.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">feed with protein supplements, something that may vary from country to country.  For instance,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:15950.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Meat and Bone Meal (MBM) was used in the formulation of “least cost” calf starter rations in the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:15969.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">UK during the period of 1970-1988 (Horn et al., 2001), leading to BSE exposure when animals</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:15988.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">are most susceptible to disease.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:16026.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The remainder of this discussion addresses susceptibility issues specific to sheep,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:16045.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">humans, bovines, and cervids in turn.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:16082.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><i><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Sheep</FONT></FONT></i></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:16120.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">In sheep, polymorphisms identified at codon 136, 174 and 171 of the PrP gene play the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:16139.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">largest role in variations in the development of natural scrapie.  The clinical and pathological</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:16158.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">variations of the disease are a direct result of host-agent interaction.  Holding both dose and route</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:16177.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">of transmission fixed, the transmission of scrapie depends on the homology of the donor’s PrP</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:16196.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">and the recipient’s PrP.  Some aspects of the pathogenesis can differ depending on the interaction</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:16215.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">of agent strain, host genotype, route of infection, and dose of the agent.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:16253.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Naturally infected sheep of a number of breeds in the US, UK, Europe, and Japan carry</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:16272.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">valine at codon 136 (VV</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:199.45pt;top:16277.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">136 or</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:219.25pt;top:16272.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">VA</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:235.20pt;top:16277.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">136</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:245.65pt;top:16272.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">) or glutamine at codon 171 (QQ</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:390.35pt;top:16277.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">171</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:400.80pt;top:16272.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">) (Laplanche et al., 1993,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:16291.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Westaway et al., 1994, Belt et al., 1995, Ikeda et al., 1995, Hunter et al., 1993, Hunter et al.,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:16310.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">1994) of the PrP gene.  There has only been one report of scrapie-affected Suffolk with arginine</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:16329.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">homozygosity at codon 171(RR</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:230.30pt;top:16334.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">171</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:240.75pt;top:16329.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">) and four reports of scrapie affected Suffolk with</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:16348.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">glutamine/arginine heterozygosity at codon 171 (QR</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:322.55pt;top:16353.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">171</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:333.00pt;top:16348.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">) (Ikeda et al., 1995, Hunter et al., 1997b).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:16367.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Scrapie strains can be distinguished by biological parameters such as the incubation period, lesion</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:16386.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">profile, and amyloid plaque production (Dickinson and Meikle, 1971, Dickinson and Outram,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:16405.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">1988, Bruce and Fraser, 1982, Bruce et al., 1991, Bruce et al., 1997).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:16443.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">There has been some debate as to whether naturally occurring scrapie is a purely</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:16462.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">genetically-induced disease (Ridley and Baker, 1996) or if PrP genotype merely influences</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:16481.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">susceptibility following exposure to an infectious agent.  The current consensus rules out the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:16500.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">hypothesis that scrapie is a purely genetic disease (Hunter and Cairns, 1998, Hunter, 1998) and</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:16519.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">suggests that susceptibility and exposure are both necessary for the development of the disease.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:16632.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:16668.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 2</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.20pt;top:17376.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.90pt;top:17376.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">11 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:16704.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Sheep and goats have been shown to be susceptible to the development of BSE following</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:16723.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">experimental exposure (i.c. and oral) (Foster et al., 1993, Foster et al., 1996, Bruce et al., 1994).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:16742.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Different PrP genotypes have different incubation periods (Foster et al., 2001) following BSE</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:16761.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">exposure.  Currently, there is no evidence that sheep and goats can develop the disease after</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:16780.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">exposure to feed supplemented with contaminated animal protein.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:16818.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><i><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Humans</FONT></FONT></i></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:16855.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">In humans, polymorphisms in the PrP gene influence susceptibility to sporadic, inherited,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:16874.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">or infectious forms of prion diseases.  There are two common forms of PrP in humans with either</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:16893.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">methionine (M) or valine  (V) at residue 129.  The population is comprised of homozygous M,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:16912.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">heterozygous M-V, and homozygous V. In Caucasians, 51% of the population are heterozygous</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:16931.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">while 38% are methionine homozygous; the least common genotype is valine homozygous</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:16950.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(11%).  Variability of spontaneous CJD seems to be associated with physicochemical properties</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:16969.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">of PrP</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:118.00pt;top:16968.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">sc</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.60pt;top:16969.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">in conjunction with the </FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">PRNP </FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(human prion protein gene) codon 129 genotype (Parchi et</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:16988.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">al., 1999).  In Kuru patients, homozygosity at residue 129 (particularly for methionine) was</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:17007.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">associated with an earlier age at onset and a shorter duration of illness than was heterozygosity at</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:17026.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">residue 129, a finding that probably reflects different disease incubation periods (Cervenakova et</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:17045.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">al., 1998).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:17083.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Homozygosity at residue 129 appears to increase susceptibility to TSE disease in</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:17102.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">humans.  Cases of sporadic CJD are usually homozygous at residue 129 (Palmer et al., 1991).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:17121.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Individuals with CJD caused by exposure to contaminated human pituitary hormone have an</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:17140.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">elevated prevalence of homozygosity at residue 129 for valine (Collinge et al., 1991).  In familial</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:17159.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">TSEs, polymorphism at codon 129 appears to influence the age of onset and the duration of the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:17178.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">disease (Dlouhy et al., 1992).  To date, all vCJD patients have been methionine homozygous (M-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:17197.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">M) at residue 129 (Will et al., 2000, Ironside et al., 2000).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:17235.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><i><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Bovines</FONT></FONT></i></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:17273.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Investigators have identified polymorphisms in the PrP gene in British cattle, Belgian</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:17292.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">cattle, and US cattle (for review refer to (SSC, 2000b)).  There are two major polymorphisms in</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:17311.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">the region of the PrP gene:  1) the HindII restriction site, and 2) differences in the number of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:17330.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">copies (5 or 6) of an octapeptide repeat sequence (Goldmann et al., 1991, Hunter et al., 1994).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:17424.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:17460.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 2</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.20pt;top:18168.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.90pt;top:18168.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">12 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:17515.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Hunter et al. (1992) showed that there were no differences among breeds in the age of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:17534.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">onset of BSE.  Nor did the number of PrP octapeptide copies influence age of onset.  The absence</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:17553.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">of an association between PrP polymorphisms and BSE onset age may indicate that BSE</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:17572.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">incidence is associated with an “undiscovered” polymorphism of the PrP gene.  It could also</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:17591.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">mean that there are other mutations that influence gene expression and potentially disease onset.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:17610.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Alternatively, there may be only one predominant form of cattle PrP, and if this predominant</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:17629.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">form were the allele that conferred susceptibility, most cattle would be genetically susceptible.  In</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:17647.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">this case, the dose and route of exposure (assuming there is only one strain of BSE) determine</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:17666.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">whether disease results.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:17704.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Findings from the pathogenesis and the attack rate experiments (Wells et al., 1998, Wells</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:17723.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">et al., 1999), in which animals were exposed to high levels of infectivity (1 to 100 times greater</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:17742.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">than most cattle would have received naturally), indicate that most of the cattle challenged either</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:17761.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">orally or parenterally succumbed to disease.  These results suggest that differences in</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:17780.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">susceptibility between animals may not exist, or may not be important.  Alternatively, the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:17799.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">exposures may have been so high that they overwhelmed any differences in susceptibility.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:17818.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Overall, it appears that if animals are exposed to high doses of the BSE agent early in life, they</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:17837.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">will be very likely to develop disease.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:17875.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Cattle have been shown to be partially susceptible to naturally induced scrapie but only</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:17894.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">following intracerebral injection of infectious material (Gibbs et al., 1990, Clark et al., 1995,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:17913.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Cutlip et al., 1994, Cutlip et al., 1997, Cutlip et al., 2001).  Studies done in the U.S. showed that</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:17932.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">cattle orally exposed to North American scrapie remain normal for eight years following</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:17951.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">exposure (Cutlip et al., 2001).  Research on cattle orally exposed to UK scrapie is ongoing (Linda</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:17970.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Detwiler, personal communication).  Currently, there are no available data indicating how</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:17989.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">genetics might influence bovine susceptibility to scrapie.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:18027.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><i><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Cervids</FONT></FONT></i></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:18065.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">In a study of Rocky Mountain Elk, O’Rourke et al. (O'Rourke et al., 1999) found that</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:18084.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">animals with CWD had an elevated prevalence of homzygosity for methionine at codon 132 of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:18103.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">the PrP gene.  This finding applied to both farmed and free-range animals.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:18216.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:18252.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 2</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.20pt;top:18960.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.90pt;top:18960.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">13 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:18288.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 12.00pt">2.2</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:18288.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 12.00pt">The Origin of the BSE Epidemic in the UK</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:18319.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">In 1986, a bovine spongiform encephalopathy was first confirmed in the United Kingdom</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:18338.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">as the result of routine animal disease surveillance.  This section focuses on theories advanced to</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:18357.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">explain the origins of the subsequent epidemic.  Since the beginning of the epidemic, over</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:18376.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">178,400 cases have been confirmed on 35,275 farms.  In addition, cases have been observed in</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:18395.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Northern Ireland, the Republic of Ireland, and in other European countries (OIE, 2000).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:18414.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Mathematical modeling suggests that the epidemic probably started in the UK between 1981 and</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:18433.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">1982 (Wilesmith et al., 1991, Wilesmith et al., 1992, Wilesmith, 1994).  The epidemic peaked at</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:18452.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">the end of 1992-1993 when the incidence reached approximately 3,500 confirmed cases per</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:18471.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">month.  Although the origin of the BSE epidemic remains controversial, there is little doubt that it</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:18490.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">was maintained by the recycling of bovine materials in the bovine feed chain (Kimberlin and</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:18509.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Wilesmith, 1994, Wilesmith et al., 1991, Wilesmith et al., 1992, Wilesmith, 1994, Nathanson et</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:18528.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">al., 1997).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:18566.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Although the effectiveness of the feed ban and other measures at reducing the incidence</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:18585.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">of BSE in the UK sheds light on the progress and amplification of this epidemic (Section 2.4.2),</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:18604.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">its precise origin remains uncertain.  The most prominent theory hypothesizes that BSE occurred</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:18623.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">when the scrapie agent, present in rendered proteins used in feed, overcame the species barrier to</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:18642.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">infect cattle (Section 2.2.1).  Several changes in rendering and feeding practices may have</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:18661.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">enabled the infectious agent to survive during rendering process and enter the cattle feed chain</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:18680.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(Taylor, 1989, Horn et al., 2001).  An alternative theory postulates a spontaneous case of BSE as</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:18699.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">the origin (Section 2.2.2).  Section 2.3.1 discusses spontaneous disease in further detail.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:18718.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Additional theories focus on different infectious organisms or toxic agents that could cause a</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:18737.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">spongiform encephalopathy or on dietary imbalances known to produce spongiform</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:18756.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">encephalopathies under some conditions (Section 2.2.3).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:18794.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">2.2.1</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:18794.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Scrapie in Sheep</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:18824.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Evaluating the hypothesis that scrapie is responsible for the BSE epidemic in the UK is</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:18843.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">complicated by the fact that even transmission of this disease among sheep is not well</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:18862.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">understood.  Horizontal transmission may involve the shedding of the agent into the environment</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:18881.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(Hoinville, 1996, Stringer et al., 1998, Woolhouse et al., 1998).  Maternal transmission from ewe</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:18900.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">to lamb in utero or immediately during the post-natal period is believed to occur, although there</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:18919.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">has been some debate in the past (Ridley and Baker, 1996).  Maternal transmission of scrapie may</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:19008.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:19044.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 2</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.20pt;top:19752.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.90pt;top:19752.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">14 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:19080.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">explain why the disease usually becomes endemic in a flock once it is introduced.  Exposure</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:19099.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">through contaminated vaccines (Gordon, 1939, Gordon, 1946, Gordon, 1959, Agrimi et al., 1999,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:19118.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Caramelli et al., 2001) has been documented as a source of infection.  Transmission of scrapie </FONT></FONT><i><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">via</FONT></FONT></i></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:19137.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">vectors is disputed (Fitzsimmons and Pattison, 1968, Hourrigan et al., 1979).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:19175.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The possibility that scrapie is responsible for the BSE epidemic in the UK is made more</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:19194.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">plausible by the fact that the size of the sheep population in the UK increased significantly from</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:19213.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">1980 onwards.  This growth may have lead to an increase in the prevalence of scrapie, a disease</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:19231.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">with an annual incidence now estimated to be between 5,000 and 10,000 per year in the UK</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:19250.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(Hoinville et al., 1999).  Moreover, it has been postulated that more scrapie-infected sheep than</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:19269.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">usual were introduced into the cattle feed supply during this period (Walker et al., 1991).  In</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:19288.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">addition, changes in the rendering technology in the 1980s may have made this process less</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:19307.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">effective at deactivating the scrapie agent.  During that time, meat and bone meal (MBM) was on</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:19326.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">the list of ingredients for “least cost” dairy calf starter rations and was regularly used as a source</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:19345.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">of alternative protein.  If the species barrier can indeed be overcome by exposure to a sufficiently</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:19364.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">large amount of infectivity, and if young animals are especially susceptible to infection, these</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:19383.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">changes may have been sufficient to initiate the development of BSE in cattle.  Once in cattle,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:19402.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">according to this theory, the agent adapted, thus eliminating the species barrier, and quickly</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:19421.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">spread to other cattle through feed containing rendered ruminant material.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:19459.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">One finding supporting this theory is the observation that BSE apparently originated at</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:19478.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">several locations at nearly the same time (Wilesmith, 1994, Nathanson et al., 1997, Kimberlin and</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:19497.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Wilesmith, 1994).  Such a pattern suggests some sort of population-wide insult, such as a large</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:19516.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">supply of ineffectively treated feed containing scrapie.  This theory is also supported by the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:19535.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">finding that cattle are susceptible to infection by scrapie introduced by i.c. experimental</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:19554.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">inoculation.  On the other hand, investigators have been unable to infect cattle with the North</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:19573.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">American scrapie agent when it has been orally introduced (Cutlip et al., 1994, Cutlip et al., 1997,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:19592.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Cutlip et al., 2001); research is ongoing using the UK scrapie agent (Linda Detwiler, personal</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:19611.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">communication).  In addition, if scrapie did cause the development of BSE in cattle, it is not clear</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:19630.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">why it happened suddenly in 1986 at several locations given that scrapie has been endemic in</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:19649.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">European sheep for over 250 years and ovine and bovine wastes have been used in cattle feed for</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:19668.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">several decades.  In response to that question, attention has focused on the use of MBM in dairy</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:19687.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">calf starter rations, feed given to very young animals (Horn et al., 2001).  This practice, which is</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:19706.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">not likely to have taken place elsewhere (except in Australia, which is a scrapie-free country)</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:19800.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:19836.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 2</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.20pt;top:20544.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.90pt;top:20544.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">15 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:19872.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">would have exposed animals to infectivity when they are most susceptible.  Finally, if scrapie</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:19891.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">caused BSE to originate at several locations at nearly the same time, it is surprising that there is</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:19910.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">only a single strain of BSE even though sheep in the UK are known to carry several “strains” of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:19929.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">scrapie.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:19967.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">One variation on the scrapie hypothesis suggests the existence of a strain of scrapie that</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:19986.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">was more thermostable and particularly infectious to cattle.  This theory suggests that this strain</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:20005.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">may have entered the cattle feed chain as a component of MBM.  The specific strain may have</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:20023.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">been a mutation of the scrapie agent.  It is possible that either:  1) a single scrapie strain with</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:20042.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">characteristics unlike BSE was transmitted to cattle and that these characteristics changed as the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:20061.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">agent was repeatedly recycled through cattle; or 2) a BSE strain pre-existed in sheep, and was</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:20080.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">unchanged when passed to cattle.  These hypotheses are both plausible.  However, if the origin of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:20099.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">BSE was a single “strain” of scrapie, the BSE epidemic should have had a more geographically</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:20118.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">compact origin than the diffuse pattern actually observed, unless the single “strain” was widely</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:20137.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">distributed.  BSE epidemiology shows a geographically widespread occurrence with simultaneous</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:20156.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">onset at multiple distant locations, rather than an origin focused at a single point.  Finally, this</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:20175.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">alternative theory does not address the lack of a demonstration to date of </FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">any </FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">strain of scrapie that</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:20194.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">can infect cattle following oral administration (Unpublished, MAFF).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:20232.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">2.2.2</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:20232.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Infrequent Sporadic BSE</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:20263.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">It is possible that BSE is a naturally occurring and long-established disease of cattle, but</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:20282.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">one that occurs extremely rarely (like sporadic CJD in humans).  Passing infectious material from</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:20301.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">such an animal through a rendering process with greatly reduced capacity for destroying the agent</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:20320.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">could have led to contamination of the cattle feed chain.  However, many countries had rendering</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:20339.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">systems similar to that of UK, so the absence of BSE in other countries, if it is indeed sporadic,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:20358.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">seems unlikely. That is, we would expect to see native cases in other countries as well (</FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">i.e.</FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">, cases</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:20377.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">not traceable to UK).  To date, none have been found (for a review see (Chesebro, 1999).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:20415.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">On the other hand, the cattle in the UK tend to be relatively old, with many dairy animals</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:20434.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">in particular of relatively advanced age.  If sporadic BSE resembles sporadic CJD in humans, its</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:20453.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">incidence will be much greater in older animals.  As a result, the UK herd may have been</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:20472.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">predisposed to an animal with sporadic disease approaching the highly infectious symptomatic</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:20490.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">stage of disease.  The sporadic case theory postulates that a series of unfortunate events would</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:20592.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:20628.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 2</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.20pt;top:21336.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.90pt;top:21336.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">16 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:20664.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">have had to coincide:  1) the rare sporadic case would have had to have been rendered; 2) the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:20683.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">rendering would have had to leave enough of the infectivity intact to produce a sufficient number</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:20702.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">of “second generation cases”; 3) the rendered material would have had to have been used to</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:20721.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">produce feed for cattle; and 4) the repetition of this cycle.  The apparent uniqueness of the UK as</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:20740.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">the origin of this disease may simply reflect better fortune in other countries.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:20778.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">2.2.3</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:20778.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Toxic Agents and Other Hypotheses</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:20808.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">This section describes several alternative agents and conditions that have been suggested</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:20827.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">as possible causes of the BSE epidemic in the UK.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:20865.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">2.2.3.1  Organophosphate (OP) Pesticides</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:20896.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Organophosphate (OP) pesticide toxicity in cattle may resemble BSE, and like BSE, the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:20915.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">clinical signs for OP toxicity exhibits seasonality.  It has been suggested that there was a link</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:20934.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">between the use of some OP pesticides, especially Phosmet, and the development of BSE</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:20953.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(Purdey, 1996).  Adherents to this theory claim that the distribution and dynamics of the use of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:20972.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">the pesticide are consistent with the epidemiology of the BSE epidemic in UK.  However, the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:20991.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">timing of the BSE epidemic’s origin does not coincide with the extensive use of OPs in the early</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:21009.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">1960’s for warble fly control because most of the BSE cases were born after 1982.  This</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:21029.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">hypothesis rejects the evidence that contaminated MBM plays a role in the transmission of the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:21048.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">disease.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:21097.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Purdey, the author of this theory, proposes that exposure of bovine embryos to high doses</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:21116.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">of Phosmet triggered the UK BSE epidemic (Purdey, 1996).  The mechanism underlying this</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:21135.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">theory is the phosphorylation of PrP in fetuses of cows treated with Phosmet.  The Spongiform</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:21154.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Encephalopathy Advisory Committee (SEAC) concluded, however, that OP pesticides did not</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:21173.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">accumulate in cattle, which would be necessary for the transmission of the disease via</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:21192.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">contaminated feed.  The committee agreed that the epidemiological evidence is more consistent</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:21211.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">with the hypothesis that the BSE epidemic was due to the widespread use of BSE-contaminated</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:21230.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">feedstuffs (SEAC, 1997).  The EU Scientific Steering Committee (SSC) evaluated this hypothesis</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:21249.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">and determined that intoxication with OP compounds was consistent with some of the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:21268.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">characteristics of the BSE epidemic but could not be considered to be the cause (SSC, 1998a).  In</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:21287.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">particular, this theory fails to account for the presence of BSE cases in areas of UK that did not</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:21384.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:21420.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 2</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.20pt;top:22128.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.90pt;top:22128.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">17 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:21456.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">use OPs (Horn et al., 2001), the absence of cases in areas of UK that did use OPs (Horn et al.,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:21475.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">2001), and the absence of cases in countries that use OPs more extensively than the UK.  In</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:21494.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">addition, OP exposure has not yet been shown to be transmissible.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:21532.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">2.2.3.2 Copper Deficiency</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:21562.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The incidence of BSE in the UK was highest in the southern and eastern counties of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:21581.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">England (Wilesmith et al., 1991, Wilesmith et al., 1992).  Several counties in this region are</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:21600.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">known to have widespread copper deficiencies in soils and crops (Thornton and Webb, 1979).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:21619.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">These deficiencies could cause copper deficiency in ruminants.  The resulting condition is known</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:21638.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">to have specific signs and pathological changes similar to those of BSE.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:21676.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">One theory for the origin of the BSE epidemic hypothesizes that the high levels of protein</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:21695.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">in feed used in the 1970s and 1980s competed with copper for absorption by ruminants</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:21714.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(Rehbinder and Petersson, 1994).  This theory is consistent with some aspects of the disease, but</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:21733.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">the morphology and distribution of vacuolar or spongiform-like changes observed in animals</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:21752.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">suffering from copper deficiency differ from the spongiform changes that are typical of a TSE</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:21771.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(SSC, 2000a).  This theory also fails to account for the disease’s transmissibility.  Furthermore, if</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:21790.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">this hypothesis were true, beef cows (that obtain most of their nutrients through pasture) should</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:21809.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">have a higher incidence of BSE than dairy cattle, and the reverse is observed (Horn et al., 2001).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:21847.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">2.2.3.3  Heavy Metal Exposure</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:21877.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The role of heavy metals in certain CNS diseases (Warren, 1974) has led some</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:21896.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">researchers to suggest they may have a role in the development of BSE.  It has been shown that</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:21915.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">copper ions can convert PrP to the infective disease form (McKenzie et al., 1998).  It has been</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:21934.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">suggested that contamination of MBM with heavy metals may have converted the normal PrP to</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:21953.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">the infective form.  However, this theory is inconsistent with the characteristics of the epidemic in</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:21972.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">UK because heavy metal exposure is likely in areas where BSE has never been observed.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:21991.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Moreover, a potential source of heavy metal contamination of feed has never been identified, nor</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:22010.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">has transmissibility been demonstrated.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:22176.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:22212.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 2</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.20pt;top:22920.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.90pt;top:22920.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">18 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:22248.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">2.2.3.4 Autoimmune Disease</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:22278.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">It has been proposed that BSE could be an autoimmune disease caused by exposure of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:22297.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">cattle to bacteria containing proteins that induce immunologic cross-reactivity with central</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:22316.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">nervous system tissue (Ebringer et al., 1997, Tiwana et al., 1999).  According to this theory, the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:22335.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">BSE epidemic resulted from the production of feed rich in the specific bacteria with proteins that</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:22354.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">mimic brain tissue.  Because of exposure to these bacteria, bovine anti-bacterial antibodies may</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:22373.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">have reacted with myelin proteins in the brain that were sufficiently similar to bacterial antigens.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:22392.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The damage caused by such an auto-immune disease would be chronic and would be consistent</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:22411.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">with some of the characteristics of BSE (SSC, 2000a).  Autoimmune brain disease can be</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:22430.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">experimentally transmitted to animals but only by injecting large amounts of brain protein and</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:22449.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">adjuvants.  In contrast, TSE can be transmitted by injecting only a few nanograms of brain</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:22468.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">without adjuvant (Horn et al., 2001).  In addition, the neuropathology of autoimmune brain</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:22487.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">disease is different than that observed in TSE.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:22525.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">SSC has concluded that this theory is not consistent with the BSE epidemic for several</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:22544.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">reasons.  First, the morphology and distribution of vacuolar or spongiform-like changes due to</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:22563.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">BSE are not the same as those caused by an auto-immune reaction.  Second, lymphocytic</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:22582.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">infiltrates that are typical of and are a pathogenetically important component of auto-immune</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:22601.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">disease are atypical of TSE.  Third, high infectious titers cannot be explained by the autoimmune</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:22620.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">hypothesis (SSC, 2000a).  Fourth, as pointed out by the BSE Inquiry (Lord Phillips et al., 2000),</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:22639.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">mouse adapted-BSE can be transmitted i.c. to mice lacking a functional immune system.  Fifth,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:22658.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">common bacteria do not have the resistance to chemical and physical inactivation shown by the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:22677.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">agents of transmissible spongiform encephalopathies, including bovine spongiform</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:22696.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">encephalopathy. Finally, this theory fails to explain why many thousands of animals suddenly</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:22715.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">became affected and why the BSE epidemic occurred predominantly in the UK (Horn et al.,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:22734.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">2001).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:22772.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">2.2.3.5  Use of Pituitary Hormones</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:22802.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Posterior pituitary extracts obtained from oxen or other mammals were used as a source</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:22821.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">of oxytocin for veterinary purposes through the period 1950-1989.  Use of anterior pituitary</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:22840.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">extracts as a source of follicle stimulating hormone or bovine growth hormone occurred but was</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:22859.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">not widespread (Horn et al., 2001).  Recall that growth hormone, prepared from cadaver pituitary</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:22878.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">glands, has caused transmission of CJD in humans, and this theory suggests that a similar</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:22968.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:23004.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 2</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.20pt;top:23712.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.90pt;top:23712.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">19 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:23040.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">phenomenon may have occurred in cattle (Airtime and Resources, 2001).  This hypothesis</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:23059.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">suggests that pituitary hormones contaminated by BSE caused the epidemic in the UK but not in</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:23078.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">other countries.  The source of the original infectivity (in humans it was one or more pituitaries</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:23097.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">from CJD cases) is not explained by this theory.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:23135.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">2.2.3.6  Wild African Antelope</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:23165.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">A group of scientists from New Zealand postulated that BSE originated from wild</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:23184.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">African antelope, and that it spread into British cattle when an infected animal from a wildlife</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:23203.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">park was rendered into MBM that was fed to about 1,000 dairy cows in the southwest of England</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:23222.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">between 1975 and 1977 (ProMED-mail, 2001, April 18).  They hypothesized that the disease</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:23241.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">probably spread through British cattle for about a decade before it was fully recognized.  Kelly et</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:23260.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">al. (Kelly et al., 1980) suggested that the death of six white tigers in a British zoo was due to TSE</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:23279.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">but the histopathology was not consistent with BSE (Horn et al., 2001).  This theory is not</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:23298.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">consistent with the absence of evidence that carnivores in zoos in the UK were dying from TSE-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:23317.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">like symptoms before 1986.  In addition, there is no evidence that any TSE exists in the wildlife</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:23336.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">of Africa (Horn et al., 2001).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:23374.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 12.00pt">2.3</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.00pt;top:23374.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 12.00pt">Sources of BSE Infectivity</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:23406.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">This section describes potential sources and pathways by which BSE infectivity could be</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:23425.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">introduced into the U.S., including the development of a spontaneous BSE case (Section 2.3.1),</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:23444.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">importation of an infected animal into the U.S. (Section 2.3.2), scrapie (Section 2.3.3), oral</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:23463.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">ingestion of chronic wasting disease infectivity (Section 2.3.4), horizontal or lateral transmission</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:23482.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">of chronic wasting disease (Section 2.3.5), transmissible mink encephalopathy (Section 2.3.6),</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:23501.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">TSEs in pigs (Section 2.3.7), TSEs in chickens (Section 2.3.8), and contamination from recycled</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:23520.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">products, including plate waste, gelatin, milk, blood and blood products, and tallow (Section</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:23538.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">2.3.9).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:23577.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">2.3.1 Spontaneous BSE</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:23607.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">A potential way in which BSE could be introduced into the United States is the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:23626.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">development of a spontaneous case of a BSE in a native animal.  A “spontaneous case” is one that</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:23645.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">occurs in an animal with no known risk factors for development of BSE.  The presumed</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:23664.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">mechanism by which a BSE could occur spontaneously is by the mutation of the PrP gene to a</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:23760.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:23796.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 2</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.20pt;top:24504.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.90pt;top:24504.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">20 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:23832.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">form that codes for PrP , and subsequent recruitment of PrP until disease is manifest (Prusiner,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:193.20pt;top:23830.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">sc</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:357.00pt;top:23830.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">c</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:23851.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">1989); (for review see: (Chesebro, 1999).  There is no direct evidence of this mechanism,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:23870.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">although some argue that all mammals might have a low spontaneous rate of TSE (Hueston,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:23889.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">1997).  In addition, a transgenic animal over-expressing the PrP gene has apparently replicated</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:23908.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">the human TSE GSS (Hsiao et al., 1991).  Recent results, in which mice expressing the same</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:23927.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">point mutation but at normal levels failed to develop disease (Manson et al., 1999), suggest the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:23946.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">mutations may increase susceptibility rather than directly cause the disease.  Although at this time</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:23965.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">there is no scientific evidence suggesting that spontaneous BSE exists, the BSE Inquiry suggested</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:23983.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">that TSEs could possibly develop sporadically in other species, as they do in humans (BSE</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:24002.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Inquiry, 2000).  In contrast, the Review of the origin of BSE (Horn et al., 2001) concluded that</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:24021.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">although the spontaneous case hypothesis cannot be excluded, there is no evidence supporting the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:24040.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">presence of sporadic form prion disease in cattle or sheep.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:24078.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">It is not possible to determine for any particular TSE whether the original cause was a</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:24097.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">mutation or transmission of disease from another species or from the same species.  For example,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:24116.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">transmissible mink encephalopathy (TME) has no known origin.  There are a number of theories,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:24135.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">most of which focus on transmission from another species (Marsh et al., 1991).  In the case of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:24154.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">BSE, there is little evidence from the epidemiology to suggest that cases arise without some</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:24173.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">exposure to infectivity (Wilesmith et al., 1991, Kimberlin and Wilesmith, 1994, Horn et al.,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:24192.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">2001).  On the other hand, there are a small number of cases for which there are no known risk</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:24211.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">factors (MAFF born after the ban, 2000 (MAFF, 2000a); Denmark born after the ban, 2000</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:24230.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(Tegtmeier et al., 2001)).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:24268.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The existence of a spontaneous form of TSEs in animals is controversial.  In humans,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:24287.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">cases of CJD in persons with no known risk factors or exposure to the disease occur at an annual</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:24306.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">incidence of approximately one per million.  The incidence appears to be relatively constant</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:24325.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">around the world, regardless of diet, environment, or other factors that may hypothetically</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:24344.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">influence disease rates.  Cases in individuals with no known risk factors are often referred to as</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:24363.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">“sporadic CJD.”  The etiology of sporadic CJD is unknown.  Sporadic CJD appears almost</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:24382.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">exclusively in humans more than 50 years old.  Cases appear to occur without a predictable</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:24401.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">epidemiological pattern (Brown et al., 1994b, Will et al., 1986).  Sporadic CJD accounts for 85%</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:24420.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">of all cases and these cases are characterized by a relatively rapidly progressive clinical course,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:24439.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">although rare variants have shown an extensive duration of clinical illness (Brown et al., 1984).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:24458.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">It is sometimes asserted that the rate of sporadic CJD in humans is likely to be representative of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:24552.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:24588.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 2</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.20pt;top:25296.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.90pt;top:25296.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">21 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:24624.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">the rate of spontaneous BSE in cattle (Biopharm, 1997), although the rate in cattle has never been</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:24643.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">directly measured and may in fact be zero.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:24681.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">2.3.2</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.10pt;top:24681.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Importation of BSE Infectivity into the United States</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:24711.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">This section describes the potential for the importation of BSE infectivity into the United</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:24730.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">States, including the importation of live cattle (Section 2.3.2.1) and feed material (Section</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:24749.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">2.3.2.2).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:24787.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">2.3.2.1  Importation of Live Cattle from the UK</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:24818.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The U.S. imported animals from the UK during the BSE epidemic.  Between January 1,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:24837.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">1981, and July 1989, the United States imported 334 cattle from the UK.  Ninety-six percent of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:24856.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">these animals were beef breeding stock, while the remaining four percent were dairy cattle.  In</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:24875.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">1989, the US prohibited the importation of ruminants from countries affected with BSE.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:24913.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Of the 334 UK imports, 161 were disposed of in a manner that eliminates the possibility</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:24932.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">that they could have contaminated either human food or animal feed.  The remaining 173 cattle</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:24951.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">were imported before the peak of the epidemic, and none came from a birth cohort in which a</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:24969.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">BSE case is known to have developed (SSC, 2000d).  Of these 173, 164 (94.8%) were beef</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:24989.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">breeding animals and nine (5.2 %) were dairy animals.  It is possible that remains from some of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:25008.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">the 173 cattle imported from the UK between 1980 and 1989 could have ended up in either</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:25026.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">animal feed, human food, or both.  Section 3.4.3 describes our risk assessment of this scenario.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:25065.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">2.3.2.2  Importation of Cattle from Continental Europe</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:25095.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Between 1983 and 1987 397 breeding cattle were imported from Switzerland, France,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:25114.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Italy, and Belgium. These animals were beef breeds except for ten dairy animals imported from</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:25133.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">France in 1984.  From 1996 to 1997, there were also 46 animals imported from Belgium,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:25152.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Germany, Austria and Italy. Because the vast majority of the imports from continental Europe</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:25171.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">occurred before 1988, they pose only a limited risk to the U.S.  All animals imported after 1996</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:25190.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">have been traced and their movements controlled.  There is therefore virtually no risk that these</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:25209.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">imports introduced BSE into the US cattle population.  Finally, two head of cattle imported from</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:25228.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Belgium in 1996 are also under quarantine.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:25344.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:25380.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 2</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.20pt;top:26088.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.90pt;top:26088.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">22 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:25416.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">2.3.2.3  Importation of Cattle from Non-European Countries</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:25446.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">It is estimated that since 1986, the U.S. has imported from Canada and Mexico between</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:25465.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">750,000 and 2.5 million animals annually.  The vast majority of the cattle (at least 80%) are</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:25484.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">animals for feeding or slaughter.  The cattle imported from Canada for immediate slaughter are</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:25503.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">sent to slaughterhouses in sealed trucks.  All identification is collected at the time of slaughter</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:25522.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">and they are noted as animals of Canadian origin.  These imports are extremely unlikely to pose a</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:25541.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">risk of introducing BSE to the U.S.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:25579.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">2.3.2.4  Imported MBM and Feed</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:25610.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">There are no reliable data documenting the type and composition of feed imported into</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:25629.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">the U.S. between 1980 and 1990.  Current APHIS regulations prohibit the import of ruminant</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:25648.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">meat and edible products produced from animals in regions where BSE has been documented.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:25686.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">USDA reports that no MBM was imported from the UK between 1980 and 1990.  Since</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:25705.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">1989, MBM has been imported from New Zealand, Canada, Chile, Peru, and Australia.  Most</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:25724.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">MBM came from Canada (an average of 25,000 metric tons per year).  Chile exported to the U.S.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:25743.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">only 3,000 metric tons of MBM in 1989.  Peru exported 15,000 metric tons of MBM to the U.S.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:25761.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">in 1989 and 4,000 metric tons in 1990.  Panama exported 7,000 metric tons of MBM in 1989 and</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:25781.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">4,000 tons in 1990.  It is important to note that:  1) the U.S. accounts for approximately 60% of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:25800.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">the rendering materials produced globally (Rudbeck, 1999); 2) the U.S. is mainly an exporter of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:25818.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">MBM; and 3) shipping MBM to the U.S. from overseas is likely to be economically non-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:25837.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">competitive (Don Franco, personal communication).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:25875.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The geographical assessment of BSE in the U.S. (SSC, 2000d) reported the export of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:25894.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">mammalian meal and flour from the UK in 1981 (10 tons), 1984 (2 tons), 1989 (20 tons), and</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:25913.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">1997 (37 tons).  The U.S. does not have corresponding import statistics for 1989 (USDA-APHIS,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:25932.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">2000d).  It is likely that the materials imported in 1997 included non-mammalian protein because</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:25951.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">the UK Overseas Trade statistics did not specifically break out separate values for MBM, but</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:25970.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">instead subsumes this material in the category, “</FONT></FONT><i><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">flours and meals of meat and offals, unfit for</FONT></FONT></i></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:25989.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">human consumption, greaves</FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">”.  In addition, since the adoption of the Commission Decision</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:26008.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">93/239/EC on March 27, 1996, it has been illegal to export from the UK meat meal, bone meal,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:26027.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">and MBM derived from mammals.  MBM imported prior to the peak of the epidemic in the UK is</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:26046.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">not thought to pose a substantial BSE risk.  Most importantly, MBM is used for pet food and</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:26136.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:26172.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 2</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.20pt;top:26880.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.90pt;top:26880.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">23 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:26208.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">other products and poses little exposure risk to cattle.  Finally, although it is possible that MBM</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:26227.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">from the UK entered the U.S. </FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">via </FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">a third country, there is no evidence that has occurred.  In</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:26246.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">summary, past MBM imports pose little risk of exposing U.S. cattle to BSE.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:26284.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">2.3.3 Domestic Scrapie</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:26314.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The first case of scrapie diagnosed in the U.S. occurred in 1947.  Various control and</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:26333.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">eradication programs have existed since 1952 when the disease became nationally reportable.  At</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:26352.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">that time, when the disease was confirmed in a flock, the flock was quarantined and then</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:26371.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">depopulated.  In 1957, the regulations were amended to include location and subsequent</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:26390.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">depopulation of the of source flocks.  Different surveillance approaches have been instituted since</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:26409.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">that time (</FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">e.g.</FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">, the bloodline surveillance program, reporting incentives, </FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">etc.</FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">).  The Voluntary</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:26428.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Scrapie Flock Certification Program, approved in 1997 was designed to monitor flocks and</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:26447.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">certify the status of the animals enrolled in the program (USDA-APHIS, 2000c).  This program is</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:26466.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">still in effect.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:26504.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The precise prevalence of scrapie in sheep in the U.S. is unknown.  It is likely that</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:26523.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">changes in the national scrapie control and eradication program affected the reporting of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:26542.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">potentially infected sheep.  Statistics from the period between 1947 and 1992 indicate that that</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:26561.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">during this period, there were a total of 1,117 affected sheep from 657 flocks located in 39 states</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:26580.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(Wineland et al., 1998).  The number of scrapie-positive flocks increased slightly between 1965</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:26599.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">through 1992, probably reflecting changes in reporting protocols and changes in incentives</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:26618.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">offered to farmers to report affected animals.  One hundred sixty-eight rams and 949 ewes were</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:26637.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">also reported to be scrapie-positive during the study period.  Annual mortality due to scrapie in a</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:26656.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">flock is usually low (three to five percent), although higher mortality rates of up to 50% have</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:26675.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">been reported (Detwiler, 1992).  In Great Britain, the prevalence of detectable scrapie infection in</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:26694.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">the slaughter population was estimated to be 0.11% in 1997/1998.  This detectable rate probably</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:26713.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">corresponds to a true infection prevalence in the same population of up to 11% (Webb et al.,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:26732.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">2001).  Table 2-1 details the number of sheep condemned with scrapie in the U.S.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:283.70pt;top:26770.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Table 2-1</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:179.90pt;top:26782.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Sheep Condemned With Scrapie in the United States:</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:266.55pt;top:26795.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Fiscal Year 1998</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:148.45pt;top:26827.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Animal Category</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:294.00pt;top:26827.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Number</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:285.15pt;top:26840.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Slaughtered</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:367.80pt;top:26827.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Number</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:358.95pt;top:26840.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Condemned</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:447.95pt;top:26827.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Percent</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:437.65pt;top:26840.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Condemned</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:102pt;top:26826pt;width:172pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:275pt;top:26826pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:275pt;top:26826pt;width:75pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:351pt;top:26826pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:352pt;top:26826pt;width:70pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:422pt;top:26826pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:423pt;top:26826pt;width:85pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:102pt;top:26854pt;width:172pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:102pt;top:26852pt;width:172pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:275pt;top:26852pt;width: 2pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:275pt;top:26854pt;width: 2pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:277pt;top:26854pt;width:74pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:277pt;top:26852pt;width:74pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:351pt;top:26852pt;width: 2pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:351pt;top:26854pt;width: 2pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:353pt;top:26854pt;width:69pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:353pt;top:26852pt;width:69pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:422pt;top:26852pt;width: 2pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:422pt;top:26854pt;width: 2pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:424pt;top:26854pt;width:84pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:424pt;top:26852pt;width:84pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:26928.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:26964.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 2</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.20pt;top:27672.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.90pt;top:27672.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">24 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:158.30pt;top:27002.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Mature Sheep</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.60pt;top:27002.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">181,615</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:374.95pt;top:27002.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">3,480</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:456.45pt;top:27002.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">1.92</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:102pt;top:27000pt;width:172pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:102pt;top:27001pt;width:172pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:275pt;top:27000pt;width: 2pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:275pt;top:27001pt;width: 2pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:277pt;top:27000pt;width:74pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:277pt;top:27001pt;width:74pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:351pt;top:27000pt;width: 2pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:351pt;top:27001pt;width: 2pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:353pt;top:27000pt;width:69pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:353pt;top:27001pt;width:69pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:422pt;top:27000pt;width: 2pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:422pt;top:27001pt;width: 2pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:424pt;top:27000pt;width:84pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:424pt;top:27001pt;width:84pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:142.00pt;top:27015.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Lambs and Yearlings</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:291.50pt;top:27015.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">3,272,844</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:376.30pt;top:27015.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">3794</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:456.45pt;top:27015.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">0.12</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:176.30pt;top:27029.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Goats 396,473 1505 0.38</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:102pt;top:27042pt;width:172pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:275pt;top:27042pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:275pt;top:27042pt;width:75pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:351pt;top:27042pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:352pt;top:27042pt;width:70pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:422pt;top:27042pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:423pt;top:27042pt;width:85pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:27062.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The epidemiology of scrapie in the U.S. has reflected changes in the surveillance of the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:27081.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">disease, reporting requirements, and in reporting incentives.  The geographic concentration of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:27100.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">scrapie-positive flocks in certain states has been attributed to the level of surveillance conducted</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:27119.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">within those states.  There has been no identification of a seasonal incidence pattern associated</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:27138.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">with scrapie.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:27176.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The BSE epidemic in the UK influenced the processing of animal proteins in the United</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:27195.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">States.  In 1989, the National Renders Association (NRA) and the American Protein Producers</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:27214.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Industry (APPI) recommended a voluntary ban on the processing of dead sheep.  Consequently,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:27233.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">the proportion of renderers processing inedible sheep offal also declined (Eastern Research</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:27252.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Group, 1996).  Later, the FDA prohibited the use of all ruminant proteins in ruminant feed (Food</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:27270.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">and Drug Administration, 1997).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:27309.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">2.3.4</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:27309.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Chronic Wasting Disease:  Oral Exposure</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:27339.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Chronic-wasting disease (CWD) is a spongiform encephalopathy recognized for the first</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:27358.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">time in captive deer at a Colorado research facility in 1967 and later in Rocky Mountain elk at a</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:27377.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Wyoming research facility in 1978 (Williams and Young, 1980).  Additionally, CWD was</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:27396.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">confirmed in mule deer in 1977 (Williams and Young, 1980), and in free-ranging deer and elk in</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:27415.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">a five county region in Colorado and Southeastern Wyoming (Williams and Young, 1982).  In</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:27434.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">high-risk areas, the prevalence of the disease is estimated to be between five and six percent, and</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:27453.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">in the surrounding areas, the prevalence is estimated to be around one percent (Miller et al.,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:27472.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">2000).  Outside the U.S., CWD has been diagnosed on game ranches in Saskatchewan, Canada</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:27491.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">since 1996.  In 2001, the Canadian Food Inspection Agency (CFIA) confirmed that a wild mule</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:27510.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">deer in Saskatchewan had tested positive for CWD (Venter, 2001), representing the first case of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:27529.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">CWD in the wild animal population in Canada (Canadian Food Inspection Agency Animal</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:27548.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Products Animal Health and Production, 2001).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:27586.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">CWD is characterized by a progressive loss of body condition and by neurologic changes.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:27605.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">It is believed that the infection is passed between animals </FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">via </FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">horizontal transmission.  Most of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:27624.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">the animals dying naturally from the disease are between the ages two and seven years.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:27720.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:27756.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 2</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.20pt;top:28464.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.90pt;top:28464.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">25 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:27792.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Polymorphism in the PrP gene in elk has been associated with changes in the susceptibility to</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:27811.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">infection (O'Rourke et al., 1999).  Extensive nationwide surveillance started in 1997 in an effort</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:27830.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">to better understand the geographic location and magnitude of the problem (USDA-APHIS,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:27849.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">2000a).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:27887.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">A small number of deer are commercially slaughtered for human consumption every year</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:27906.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(USDA-FSIS, 1998).  These animals are usually younger than 1.6 years and are not likely to be</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:27925.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">recycled into ruminant feed (L Floyd, personal communication).  Hunters often process the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:27943.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">cervids they kill themselves or use local butchers. In these cases, high-risk materials may be</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:27962.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">further processed at a prohibited rendering facility.  Game deer are fed with protein supplements</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:27981.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">that contain small amounts of vegetable supplemental protein (L Floyd, personal</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:28000.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">communication).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:28038.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Although CWD has been transmitted to cattle </FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">via </FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">i.c. inoculation, transmission by natural</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:28057.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">routes to cattle is very unlikely to occur (Hamir et al., 2001).  For example, cattle orally</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:28076.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">inoculated with CWD infected brains have not shown any evidence of infection (Beth Williams,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:28095.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">personal communication).  </FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">In vitro </FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">experiments investing the conversion of bovine PrP by</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:474.85pt;top:28094.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">c</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:28114.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">PrP</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:106.00pt;top:28113.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">CWD</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:125.05pt;top:28114.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">suggest evidence of a molecular barrier limiting the susceptibility of cattle (Raymond et</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:28133.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">al., 2000).  Moreover, even if CWD could be transmitted to cattle, it is not clear it could cause</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:28152.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">BSE. For example, preliminary analysis of intracerebral inoculation of cattle with CWD revealed</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:28171.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">no typical TSE lesions in brain but did reveal the presence of PrP</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:379.10pt;top:28170.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">sc</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:387.70pt;top:28171.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">by immunuhistochemistry,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:28190.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Western Blot, and electron microscopy in three animals 22-27 months post-inoculation (Hamir et</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:28209.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">al., 2001).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:28247.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Even if CWD exposure can cause BSE, it is likely that the species barrier is substantial.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:28266.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">In vitro </FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">assays have suggested that homology between an infectious and endogenous PrP</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:28285.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">molecule influences the rate and likelihood of conversion from PrP to PrP , allowing the TSE</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:387.00pt;top:28284.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">c</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:420.25pt;top:28284.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">sc</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:28304.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">disease to develop in the host (Priola et al., 1994).  </FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">In vitro </FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">studies have also shown differences</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:28323.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">between bovine PrP and PrP</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:215.80pt;top:28321.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">CWD</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:234.85pt;top:28323.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">and these differences may represent a substantial species barrier.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:28342.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">For example, Raymond et al. (Raymond et al., 2000) reported that the cell-free conversion</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:28361.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">efficiency between bovine PrP and PrP</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:225.40pt;top:28359.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">c</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:265.95pt;top:28359.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">CWD</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:285.00pt;top:28361.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">is between five and twelve orders of magnitude</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:28380.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">weaker than inter-cervid transmission.  This finding suggests that the species barrier may be</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:28399.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">between 10 and 10</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:140.65pt;top:28397.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">5</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:176.65pt;top:28397.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">12</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:189.15pt;top:28399.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(Raymond et al., 2000).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:28512.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:28548.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 2</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.20pt;top:29256.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.90pt;top:29256.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">26 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:28584.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Ascertaining the potential risk posed by oral exposure to CWD is further complicated by</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:28603.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">the following sources of uncertainty.  First, there are no accurate statistics documenting the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:28622.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">number or type of deer and elk killed by hunters.  Second, the type of deer and elk that can be</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:28641.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">hunted in different geographic areas varies.  Third, the disposition of deer and elk remains after</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:28660.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">slaughter is uncertain.  Finally, the prevalence of the disease in all but the highest risk areas is</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:28679.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">unknown.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:28717.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">2.3.5</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.10pt;top:28717.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Chronic Wasting Disease:  Lateral Transmission</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:28747.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Direct contact between cattle and cervids in regions where CWD is prevalent may</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:28766.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">provide another pathway by which cattle may become infected.  Epidemiologic modeling</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:28785.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">suggests that among cervids, environmental contact provides a pathway for the spread of CWD</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:28804.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(Miller et al., 2000).  Moreover, the prevalence of the disease under experimental conditions</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:28823.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">appears to be extraordinarily high.  For instance, when deer within the endemic research facilities</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:28842.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">have been introduced into CWD negative deer herds, the disease quickly reaches a prevalence of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:28861.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">50% and 60% (Food and Drug Administration, 2001a).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:28899.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Nonetheless, there is no evidence that CWD can cause TSEs in cattle.  As noted in</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:28918.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Section 2.3.4, any such transmission would be limited by what appears to be a substantial species</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:28937.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">barrier.  Moreover, cattle cohabiting with CWD infected deer and elk in a research facility in the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:28956.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">endemic area have shown no evidence of infection (Beth Williams personal communication).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:28975.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Finally, targeted surveillance of cattle brains (by immunohistochemistry and histopathology)</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:28994.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">from endemic areas have failed to reveal the presence of CWD or any other TSEs (Daniel Gould,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:29013.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">personal communication; James Voss, personal communication, (Gould, 2000)).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:29051.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">2.3.6 Mink</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:29081.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Transmissible Mink Encephalopathy (TME) is a rare disease known to occur only in</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:29100.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">farm-raised mink.  Epidemiological studies have suggested that TME is a foodborne disease with</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:29119.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">an incubation period of between seven months and a year (Hartsough and Burger, 1965).  The</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:29138.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">disease is characterized by a long incubation period, a clinical course of several weeks, and</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:29157.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">neurological changes.  Mink experience increased aggressiveness, hyperexitability, ataxia, and</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:29176.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">hyperaesthesia.  Cases in Wisconsin and Minnesota were recognized on mink ranches as early as</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:29195.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">1947.  Outbreaks have been reported in Ohio, Canada, Finland, Germany, and Russia.  Five</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:29214.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">outbreaks have been recorded in the U.S., affecting a total of 23 mink ranches (Hartsough and</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:29304.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:29340.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 2</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.20pt;top:30048.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.90pt;top:30048.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">27 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:29376.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Burger, 1965, Hadlow et al., 1987, Marsh et al., 1991).  Three of the outbreaks in Wisconsin were</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:29395.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">associated with the use of fallen or sick cattle in mink feed (Hartsough and Burger, 1965, Marsh</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:29414.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">et al., 1991).  However, there is no consensus over the source of disease initiating these</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:29433.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">outbreaks.  The rancher involved in the Stetsonville, Wisconsin outbreak claimed that his mink</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:29452.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">were fed only dead stock and that they were never fed sheep.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:29490.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">In theory, transmission of TME to a bovine could cause BSE. Inoculation of cattle with</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:29509.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">TME </FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">via </FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">i.c. administration resulted in spongiform encephalopathy a short time later (Marsh et</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:29527.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">al., 1991, Robinson et al., 1995).  In addition, cattle passage of TME remains pathogenic to mink</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:29546.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">when administered either orally or </FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">via </FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">i.c. (Marsh et al., 1991).  According to Marsh, these results</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:29565.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">suggest that the species barrier between mink and cattle may not be substantial.  To protect</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:29584.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">against the possibility that TME might be transmitted to cattle, the FDA prohibits use of mink</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:29603.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">protein in ruminant feed.  Mink are considered prohibited materials.  The relatively small number</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:29622.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">of farmed mink, their small size, and recycling prohibitions make transmission of a prion disease</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:29641.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">from mink to cattle extremely unlikely.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:29679.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">2.3.7 Pigs</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:29710.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">There is a theoretical risk that cattle could be exposed to a TSE as the result of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:29729.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">consuming feed supplemented with porcine-derived protein.  Moreover, the fact that federal</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:29748.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">regulations classify protein from pigs as non-prohibited increases the potential for cattle to be</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:29767.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">exposed to any infectivity they may harbor.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:29805.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">There are two potential sources of this exposure: a natural TSE that infects pigs (Section</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:29824.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">2.3.7.1), and BSE-contaminated feed in the gut at the time the pig is slaughtered (Section 2.3.7.2).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:29843.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">In practice, neither infectivity source will make a substantial contribution to cattle exposure</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:29862.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">because only a small portion of porcine-derived MBM is used as cattle feed.  One reason for the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:29881.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">limited use of porcine-derived protein in cattle feed derives in part from its price.  For example, in</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:29900.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">May, 2001, the price of porcine-derived protein was $238/ton, compared to $177/ton for soy</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:29919.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">protein (Southern States Cooperative, 2001).  In addition, much rendered porcine protein is used</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:29938.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">in feed for pigs</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:30096.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:30132.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 2</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.20pt;top:30840.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.90pt;top:30840.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">28 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:30168.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The remainder of this section outlines additional factors that influence the importance of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:30187.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">this potential source of TSE exposure among cattle.  Because these sources are unlikely to be</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:30206.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">significant, we do not address it quantitatively in our risk assessment (Section 3).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:30244.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">2.3.7.1  Potential Infectivity in Pigs due to TSE Infection</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:30274.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Pigs might become infected with a TSE as the result of any of the following possibilities:</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:30312.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Symbol" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">•</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:30313.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The existence of a porcine-specific TSE agent;</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:30336.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Symbol" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">•</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:30337.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">A nonspecific TSE agent not yet adapted to pigs that has an incubation period</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:30350.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">that is longer than the life of the pig; or</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:30373.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Symbol" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">•</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:30374.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The spontaneous misfolding of the prion protein leading to a spontaneous TSE</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:30387.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">case in porcine.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:30430.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Consumer groups in the U.S. have expressed concern that it may be possible for a pig to</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:30449.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">become infected with a TSE.  This concern stems from a 1979 incident in which one of 60 pigs</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:30468.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">presented with clinical neurologic signs, neurological degeneration, and gliosis on</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:30487.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">histopatological examination (Hansen, 1999).  However, further testing showed that the lesions</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:30506.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">were not patognomonic of spongiform encephalopathy (Linda Detwiler, personal</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:30525.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">communication).  Moreover, the animal in question was young, a factor that is inconsistent with</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:30544.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">the TSE diagnosis.  SSC (SSC, 1999b) concluded that these factors argue against the presence of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:30563.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">an unrecognized spongiform encephalopathy in pigs in the U.S.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:30600.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Other evidence also suggests that the existence of a porcine-specific TSE agent is</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:30619.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">unlikely. No naturally occurring TSE has ever been reported in pigs (MAFF, 2000b).  Moreover,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:30638.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">pigs inoculated orally with BSE have not developed disease (MAFF, 2000b).  Experimental</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:30657.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">inoculation of pigs with different strains of Kuru </FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">via </FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">parenteral administration did not lead to</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:30676.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">spongiform encephalopathy 52 to 76 months post inoculation (Gibbs et al., 1979).  A similar</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:30695.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">result was reported for pigs challenged with scrapie (SSC, 1999b) up to 63 months after</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:30714.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">inoculation.  Pigs have also been challenged with brain material from cattle naturally infected</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:30733.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">with BSE by combined i.c., i.p., and i.v. routes (Dawson et al., 1990).  This experiment is still</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:30752.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">ongoing but preliminary results show that seven of ten pigs developed spongiform</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:30771.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">encephalopathy (Ryder et al., 2000).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:30888.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:30924.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 2</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.20pt;top:31632.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.90pt;top:31632.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">29 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:30960.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">In an ongoing experiment in which ten pigs were subject to oral challenge with large</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:30979.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">amounts of brain from cattle naturally infected with BSE, none of the animals have developed</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:30998.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">clinical disease or neuropathologic changes.  The oral challenge consisted of homogenized brain</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:31017.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">from confirmed cases of BSE.  Each pig received a dose of 1.2kg of brain divided into three doses</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:31036.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">at intervals of one week.  Mouse bioassays of neural and non-neural tissues from pigs killed at 84</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:31055.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">months post inoculation were initiated in October and November, 1997 and were completed in</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:31074.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">May, 2000.  As of the drafting of this report, there is no evidence of residual infectivity in any of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:31093.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">the tissues.  These findings may indicate that the species barrier between pigs and cattle is higher</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:31111.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">than the species barrier between cattle and humans or between cattle and other animals that have</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:31130.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">developed spongiform encephalopathy after exposure to BSE-contaminated MBM.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:31168.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The fact that a naturally occurring spongiform encephalopathy has never been reported in</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:31187.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">pigs may indicate that pigs are particularly resistant to this type of disease.  That is, the species</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:31206.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">barrier between pigs and other species may have prevented the transmission of natural disease to</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:31225.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">pigs.  For example, it is very likely that pigs in the UK were exposed to substantial doses of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:31244.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">contaminated MBM before the implementation of the feed ban.  Although most pigs are</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:31263.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">slaughtered at a very young age, there are a significant number of sows and boars that usually live</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:31282.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">until age four.  The fact that parenterally challenged animals developed disease 17 months post</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:31301.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">inoculation suggests that these four year old animals were sufficiently old to develop disease.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:31320.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Other species serve as examples.  Marsh et al. (Marsh et al., 1969) noted the recovery of TME</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:31339.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">from the spleen of one chicken, and from spleen, caecom, tonsils, and bursa of Fabricius after i.v.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:31358.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">inoculation.  Race and Chesebro (Race and Chesebro, 1998), have shown that after inoculation of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:31377.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">mice that either did or did not express the prion protein (PrP) gene with the hamster scrapie strain</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:31396.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">263K, no clinical disease was produced in mice.  However, infectivity found in the brain and</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:31415.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">spleen of mice expressing the prion protein was capable of causing disease in hamsters but not in</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:31434.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">mice.  Hill et al. (Hill et al., 2000), have shown the possible presence of subclinical TSE in</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:31453.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">certain animals by demonstrating that a strain of hamster prions thought to be nonpathogenic for</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:31472.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">conventional mice leads to high levels of prion replication in such mice without causing clinical</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:31491.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">disease.  Alternatively, it is possible that cases in pigs in the UK have gone unnoticed.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:31529.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Finally, even if pigs could become infected with a TSE, most are slaughtered at a young</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:31548.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">age, making it unlikely that the disease would have time to generate more than a small amount of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:31567.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">infectivity.  For example, in 1998, more than 95% of the pigs slaughtered in the U.S. were no</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:31586.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">older than six months (USDA-FSIS, 1998).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:31680.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:31716.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 2</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.20pt;top:32424.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.90pt;top:32424.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">30 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:31771.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">2.3.7.2  Potential Infectivity in Materials Consumed by Pigs</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:31801.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Even if pigs do not become infected with a TSE, contaminated material may be present in</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:31820.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">their digestive tract when they die.  In particular, if feed administered to pigs contains cattle-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:31839.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">derived MBM that is contaminated with BSE, pigs could harbor BSE in their alimentary tract.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:31858.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The following discussion outlines several factors suggesting that the potential is limited for BSE</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:31877.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">to be recycled through the guts of pigs.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:31915.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">First, most pigs are not exposed to cattle-derived MBM because there are many other</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:31934.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">economical sources of protein.  For example, in the U.S., soybean meal is usually the most</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:31953.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">economical source of high quality protein available for porcine diets.  It is comparable to animal</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:31972.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">proteins in terms of the quality of its amino acid components and can be used as the only protein</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:31991.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">source in most swine diets.  Other sources of proteins fed to pigs include porcine MBM, peanut</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:32010.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">meal, fish meal, cottonseed meal, canola meal, sunflower meal, and raw soy beans.  The amount</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:32029.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">of protein added to feed varies based on the specific needs of the animal as it grows.  MBM,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:32048.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">blood meal, and plasma can comprise between 2.5 and 5 percent of feed for pigs between</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:32067.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">weaning and 60 days of age and during the animal’s growing and finishing stages.  Because it is</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:32086.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">not uniformly used, it is likely that approximately 80% of the pigs grown in the United States</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:32105.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">never receive MBM.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:32143.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Second, even among pigs that do receive cattle-derived MBM, it is likely that little if any</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:32162.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">feed would remain in the GI system at the time of processing because pigs are usually sent to</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:32181.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">slaughter after restricting feed intake for 14 to 16 hours.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:32219.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Third, due to the high water content of the GI tract, contents are unlikely to be rendered.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:32257.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Finally, if the gut contents are rendered, any BSE-contaminated material that does make</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:32276.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">its way back to cattle will have gone through rendering twice, thus providing an additional</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:32295.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">opportunity for infectivity to be destroyed by this treatment.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:32472.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:32508.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 2</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.20pt;top:33216.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.90pt;top:33216.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">31 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:32544.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">2.3.8 Poultry</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:32574.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Many of the same factors that make pigs an unlikely source of infectivity for cattle also</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:32593.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">make chickens an unlikely source.  As a result, we do not quantitatively address this source in our</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:32612.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">risk assessment (Section 3).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:32650.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">As is the case with pigs, experimental data do not support the existence of a poultry-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:32669.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">specific TSE.  Experiments have subjected chickens to TSE challenge </FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">via </FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">both the parenteral and</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:32688.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">oral administration routes.  The chickens challenged orally received five grams of brain from</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:32707.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">cattle confirmed to have BSE on three occasions at four, five, and six weeks of age.  The chickens</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:32726.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">challenged i.c</FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">. </FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">received 50l of a 10% saline suspension of brainstem material from these cattle</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:32745.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">at 1 day after birth and one ml at two weeks after birth.  No evidence of transmissible</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:32764.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">encephalopathy was found (MAFF, 2000b). In addition, there is no evidence to date of residual</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:32783.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">infectivity in any tissue (Linda Detwiler, personal communication).  Even if there were a poultry-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:32802.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">specific TSE, the fact that chickens are typically slaughtered at an early age makes it unlikely that</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:32821.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">a prion disease would have time to develop.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:32859.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Although chickens themselves appear to pose no substantial risk to cattle of exposure to a</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:32878.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">TSE, the use of chicken litter as a feed supplement could pose a risk (Public Citizen, 2001) that</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:32897.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">should be investigated further.  It is possible that cattle-derived protein feed supplements</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:32916.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">administered to chicken could contain BSE infectivity, and that BSE infectivity could pass</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:32935.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">through chicken and become available in cattle feed supplemented with chicken litter.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:32973.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">2.3.9 Recycled Products</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:33003.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Several products that can be used in ruminant rations have the potential of harboring</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:33022.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">infectivity.  The FDA does not exclude from ruminant feed the following products derived from</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:33041.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">mammals:</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:33079.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Symbol" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">•</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:33080.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Plate waste:  Inspected and processed meat products that have been cooked and</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:33093.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">offered for human consumption and further heat processed for feed (such as plate</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:33105.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">waste and used cellulosic food casings);</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:33128.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Symbol" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">•</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:33130.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Gelatin,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:33153.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Symbol" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">•</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:33154.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Milk products (milk and milk proteins),</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:33177.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Symbol" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">•</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:33179.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Blood and blood products,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:33264.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:33300.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 2</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.20pt;top:34008.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.90pt;top:34008.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">32 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:33335.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Symbol" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">•</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:33336.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Tallow, grease, fat, oil</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:33360.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Symbol" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">•</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:33361.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Aminoacids, dicalcium phospahate, and</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:33384.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Symbol" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">•</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:33385.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Mammalian protein, which consists entirely of porcine or equine protein.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:33428.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">2.3.9.1 Plate Waste</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:33459.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Plate waste is defined to be food products that have been inspected by the FSIS or an</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:33478.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">equivalent state agency, cooked, and presented for human consumption.  Plate waste often comes</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:33497.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">from large institutions, such as amusement parks or hotels.  It consists of food items that have</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:33516.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">been cooked and presented for human consumption.  Plate waste can undergo any of the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:33535.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">following heat treatments:  conventional rendering, extrusion and cooking at 212  F for 30</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:450.50pt;top:33533.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">o</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:33553.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">minutes (Swine Health Protection Act), pelleting at either 190  F (internal temperature), or</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:367.35pt;top:33552.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">o</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:33572.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">pelleting at temperatures similar to those of conventional rendering.  This additional treatment</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:33591.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">using high temperature and pressure may further reduce the amount of infectivity that might be in</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:33610.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">this material.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:33648.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">There are approximately half a dozen processors of plate waste in the United States.  The</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:33667.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">final product competes with grains in the formulation of feed, although at this time, it is not a</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:33686.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">cost-effective option because of the high processing costs.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:33724.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Bakery products comprise approximately 90% of all plate waste going to animal feed.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:33743.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The remainder consists of eggs, dairy products, fish and other products of animal origin.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:33762.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Therefore, plate waste consists mostly of non-meat products (Food and Drug Administration,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:33781.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">1997).  Because plate waste is high in moisture content, vegetable proteins must be added (50%</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:33800.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">to 60%), and it must undergo further processing to aid the dehydration and extrusion process.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:33819.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The best estimate is that plate waste consists of between two and four percent bovine tissue.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:33838.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">APHIS has expressed concern that plate waste could contain infective tissue, such as brain and</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:33857.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">spinal cord (Food and Drug Administration, 1997), but such tissues are unlikely to be present in</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:33876.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">any substantial quantity in plate waste.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:33914.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">We assume that high risk tissues (</FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">i.e</FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">., brain) are extremely unlikely to be included in</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:33933.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">plate waste. Plate waste might contain on occasion spinal cord contamination or spinal cord in a</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:33952.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">T-bone steak.  Because T-bone steaks originate from younger cattle, the likelihood of carrying</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:33971.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">infectivity at the time of slaughter is extremely low. In addition, spinal cord is unlikely to be</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:34056.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:34092.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 2</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.20pt;top:34800.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.90pt;top:34800.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">33 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:34128.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">included in the product (Food and Drug Administration, 1997) because T-Bone steaks are</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:34147.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">unlikely to be included in plate waste.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:34185.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">In conclusion, current practices make the amount of infectivity in plate waste to which</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:34204.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">cattle could be exposed very small.  Plate waste consists of little mammalian protein, and the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:34223.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">tissues that are included in this waste are unlikely to contain BSE infectivity.  Moreover, plate</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:34242.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">waste undergoes a substantial amount of heat treatment, which would further reduce the level of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:34261.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">infectivity in this material.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:34299.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">2.3.9.2 Gelatin</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:34329.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">FDA regulations allow the feeding of gelatin to ruminants because it has not been shown</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:34348.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">to harbor infectivity.  SSC considers gelatine, amino-acids and dicalcium phosphate to be safe if</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:34367.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">processing ensures that all material is subjected to degreasing, followed by acid and/or alkaline</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:34386.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">treatment, heating to 120°C, and then heating to 138-140°C for four seconds. (SSC, 1998b).  We</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:34405.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">assume that recycling this material poses little risk of exposing cattle to BSE.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:34443.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">2.3.9.3 Milk</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:34473.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">FDA regulations do not prohibit the use of milk in cattle feed.  No infectivity has been</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:34493.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">detected in milk or in the udder (mammary gland) of cows (as measured by the mouse bioassay)</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:34512.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(Wells et al., 1998).  At this time, there is no evidence that any of the TSEs can be transmitted</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:34530.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">through milk.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:34568.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">SEAC considers milk to be safe and has concluded that there was no reason, following</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:34587.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">the interim results of a cohort study, to change this position (SEAC, 1999).  The World Health</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:34606.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Organization has also issued a statement that concludes that milk is safe, most recently in June</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:34625.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">2001 (WHO, 2001).  SEAC reviewed the processing and use of milk in the light of research</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:34644.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">implicating lymphocytes in the pathogenesis of TSEs (SEAC, 1999).  The Committee noted that</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:34663.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">there was no evidence of infectivity in the spleen or lymph nodes of cattle infected with BSE.  In</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:34682.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">an opinion on the vertical transmission of BSE, the SSC also concluded there to be no reason to</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:34701.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">restrict the use of milk.  However, SSC does recommend that as a precautionary measure, milk</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:34720.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">from BSE-affected cows be kept out of the human food supply (European Commission, 1999b).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:34739.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">We assume that recycling this material poses little risk of exposing cattle to BSE.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:34848.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:34884.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 2</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.20pt;top:35592.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.90pt;top:35592.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">34 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:34920.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">2.3.9.4  Blood and blood products</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:34950.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">No detectable infectivity has been found in blood or blood components of cattle infected</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:34969.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">with BSE (Wells et al., 1998, Wells et al., 1999, MAFF, 2000b, Bradley, 1999).  Unlike TSEs</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:34988.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">affecting other animals, infectivity has not been detected in spleen or lymph nodes of cattle</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:35007.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">experimentally infected with BSE during either the incubation period or after manifestation of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:35026.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">clinical signs.  Infectivity in blood has been found in sheep experimentally infected with BSE</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:35045.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(Foster et al., 1996).  It is possible that in the cases of Scrapie, CWD, vCJD, and perhaps BSE in</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:35064.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">sheep, the lymphoid tissue plays an important role in the pathogenesis of the disease (Andreoletti</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:35083.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">et al., 2000, Ironside et al., 2000, Sigurdson et al., 1999).  Some have speculated that</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:35102.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">neuroinvasion can occur directly </FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">via </FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">peripheral nerves or the lymphoreticular system and then </FONT></FONT><i><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">via</FONT></FONT></i></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:35121.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">peripheral nerves (Glatzel and Aguzzi, 2001).  Even if infectivity does exist in the blood of BSE-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:35140.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">infected cattle, the total amount of infectivity is below the level of detection of the mouse</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:35159.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">bioassay. We assume that recycling this material poses little risk of exposing cattle to BSE.  We</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:35178.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">do evaluate the potential for BSE infectivity to be present in blood as CNS micro-emboli (Section</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:35197.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">3.1.2.3).  In our sensitivity analysis, we characterize the effect of assuming inherent infectivity in</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:35216.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">blood at the level of detection.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:35254.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">2.3.9.5 Tallow</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:35285.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The World Health Organization has concluded that because of the proteinaceous nature</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:35304.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">of TSE agents, they will tend to remain with the cellular residues of MBM during the extraction</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:35322.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">process, rather than being extracted with the lipids of tallow (WHO, 2001).  In addition, a</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:35341.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">rendering study funded jointly by the EU and MAFF in 1997 showed that tallow can be</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:35360.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">considered to be safe even if its treatment does not achieve the 133 C/20 minutes/3 bars of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:386.30pt;top:35359.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">o</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:35379.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">pressure minimum treatment standard (Taylor et al., 1997, MAFF, 2001).  We assume that</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:35398.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">recycling this material poses little risk of exposing cattle to BSE.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:35436.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 12.00pt">2.4</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:35436.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 12.00pt">Measures Taken to Protect Against BSE</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:35468.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Protecting against the introduction of BSE into a country requires policies that are based</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:35487.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">on prohibitions and restrictions.  Regulations mainly prohibit the importation of feed, feeding</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:35506.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">materials or animals from countries with BSE, and ban recycling of ruminant materials into</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:35525.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">ruminant feed.  In countries with BSE, infected tissues are not allowed into the human food</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:35544.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">supply or animal feed.  Minimizing the spread of disease is complicated by the fact that BSE</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:35640.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:35676.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 2</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.20pt;top:36384.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.90pt;top:36384.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">35 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:35712.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">animals may not show clinical signs of disease for an extended period after becoming infected</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:35731.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">and the agent cannot be readily deactivated once it contaminates feed.  After describing these</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:35750.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">problems (Section 2.4.1), this section discusses actions taken in the UK to address its epidemic</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:35769.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(Section 2.4.2), actions taken in Europe to prevent the spread of BSE beyond the UK (Section</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:35788.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">2.4.3), measures taken in the United States to prevent the introduction of BSE (Section 2.4.4), and</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:35807.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">surveillance measures in the United States (Section 2.4.5).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:35845.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">2.4.1</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.10pt;top:35845.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">General Issues Related to the Surveillance of BSE and the Deactivation of the BSE</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:35857.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Agent</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:35888.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">There is no pre-clinical or clinical test available to identify BSE in the field except when</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:35907.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">the disease is very near the end of its incubation period.  Diagnosis in a live animal is based on</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:35926.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">clinical signs.  Most commonly, the animal presents with changes in temperament, such as</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:35945.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">nervousness or aggression, abnormal posture, lack of coordination, difficulty in rising, or loss of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:35964.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">body condition despite continued appetite.  Specific clinical signs include abnormal head and ear</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:35983.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">position, apprehension and nervousness, apparent blindness, and exaggerated responses.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:36021.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Microscopic examination is performed post-mortem and requires brain material</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:36039.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">preserved in formalin.  This tissue is then stained and examined for the characteristic appearance</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:36059.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">of BSE specific changes.  Microscopic examination is required by the EU Diagnostic Manual</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:36078.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(European Commission, 1999a, European Commission, 2000) and by the OIE (OIE, 2000).  The</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:36096.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">brain neuropathology of BSE resembles that of natural scrapie in sheep: astrogliosis, intracellular</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:36115.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">vacuolation affecting the gray matter neutropil and perikarya giving the distinctive appearance of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:36134.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">spongiform changes, neuronal loss, and cerebral amyloidosis generally represent the most</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:36153.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">prominent changes (Wells et al., 1991).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:36191.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Other validated tests for postmortem diagnosis include:</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:36229.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Symbol" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">•</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:36230.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The detection of disease-specific brain changes by electron microscopy (scrapie</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:36243.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">associated fibrils, SAF);</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:36266.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Symbol" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">•</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:36267.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The detection of the abnormal form (PrP</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:342.00pt;top:36266.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">BSE</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:354.60pt;top:36267.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">) of the host protein (PrP ) by</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:464.50pt;top:36266.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">c</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:36280.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">immunological means such as immunoblotting, immunohistochemistry (used as a</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:36292.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">confirmatory diagnoses by the EU); and</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:36316.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Symbol" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">•</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:36317.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Detection of infectivity in tissues by bioassay (usually i.c. injection into mice).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:36432.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:36468.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 2</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.20pt;top:37176.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.90pt;top:37176.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">36 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:36504.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Newer tests have been developed and are capable of detecting pre-clinical cases and of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:36523.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">screening animals before slaughter.  These tests have high sensitivity and specificity for detecting</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:36542.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">and confirming BSE for diagnostic purposes and can detect disease in animals not showing</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:36561.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">typical signs at slaughter (European Commission, 1999a).  So far, the sensitivity and specificity</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:36580.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">of the newer tests have not been shown to be better than that of immunohistochemistry at similar</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:36599.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">preclinical stages of the disease (Linda Detwiler, personal communication).  The tests include:</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:36636.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Symbol" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">•</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:36637.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">An immunobloting test based on the Western Blotting procedure for the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:36650.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">detection of Pr</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:227.30pt;top:36649.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">Pres</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:242.05pt;top:36650.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">using monoclonal antibody (Prionics);</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:36673.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Symbol" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">•</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:36674.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">A chemiluminescent ELISA using polyclonal anti PRP antibody for detection</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:36687.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(Enfer); and</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:36710.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Symbol" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">•</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:36711.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">A sandwich immunoassay for PRP</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:315.60pt;top:36710.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">res</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:326.50pt;top:36711.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(CEA).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:36754.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">All of these tests are very rapid, with results obtained within 24 hours.  Results from the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:36773.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Swiss surveillance system show that the Prionics test could be used to target populations other</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:36792.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">than those with clinical signs of the disease (European Commission, 1999a, Schaller et al., 1999,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:36811.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Doherr et al., 1999).  Although these tests can detect PrP</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:341.15pt;top:36810.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">res</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:352.10pt;top:36811.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">before the animal shows clinical signs</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:36830.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">of the disease, it is not clear at what point during the incubation period the test would reliably</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:36849.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">yield positive results.  It appears that their utility is primarily near the end of the disease</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:36868.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">progression.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:36906.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">There are no commercially available methods for the detection of the BSE agent in food.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:36925.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">On the other hand, food and food products can be screened to detect high risk tissues, such as</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:36944.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">brain in sausages (SSC, 1999a, Lucker et al., 2000), spinal cord in ground beef (Schmidt et al.,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:36963.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">1999); (Schmidt et al., 2001) or Advanced Meat Recovery (AMR) product (Kelley et al., 2000);</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:36982.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(Schmidt et al., 2001), and central nervous system tissue in the blood of animals stunned with</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:37001.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">pneumatic stunners (Garland et al., 1996, Schmidt et al., 1999, Anil et al., 1999).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:37039.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">TSE agents are known for their capacity to survive severe environmental conditions such</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:37058.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">as desiccation, thermal extremes and UV exposure.  Autoclaving, sodium hydroxide and sodium</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:37077.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">hypochlorite can achieve some level of inactivation but only under the most severe conditions.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:37096.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Currently there is no method to inactivate BSE that may be present in food for human</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:37115.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">consumption.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:37224.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:37260.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 2</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.20pt;top:37968.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.90pt;top:37968.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">37 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:37296.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">2.4.2</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:37296.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Actions to Address BSE in the UK</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:37326.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Soon after the BSE epidemic emerged in the UK, several measures were taken to</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:37345.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">decrease the incidence of the disease in animals and the potential exposure of humans to</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:37364.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">potentially infected meat products (MAFF, 2000b).  The disease became notifiable in 1988,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:37383.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">requiring that all cattle suspected of having BSE be destroyed and sent for diagnosis.  Upon</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:37402.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">confirmation of the role of animal feed in the epidemic in 1988, the UK banned the use of MBM</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:37421.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">as ingredient in feed produced for ruminants.  In September 1990, there was a ban on the use of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:37440.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Specified Bovine Offals (SBO) as an ingredient in feed stuff for any species.  This legislation</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:37459.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">identified tissues with the highest concentration of infectivity (Hadlow et al., 1980, Hadlow et al.,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:37478.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">1982) and removed them from the animal feed chain.  Feed-borne BSE infections continued even</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:37497.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">after the imposition of the feed ban, but at a much lower rate (Anderson et al., 1996).  In March</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:37516.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">1996, the government of the UK imposed a total ban on the use of mammalian proteins in feed</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:37535.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">produced for farm animals.  As a result of these ever more stringent bans to reduce the recycling</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:37554.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">of infectivity, the annual incidence of BSE fell by 90% between 1992 and 1997.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:37592.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">During the first few years following the initial identification of BSE in Britain, the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:37611.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">epidemic was primarily an animal health concern.  That focus reflected the experience with</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:37630.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">scrapie, which despite its presence in the human food supply for hundreds of years, had never</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:37649.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">lead to a known case of human illness.  Precautionary measures where nonetheless put into place</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:37668.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">to protect the human food supply, including a ban on the sale of brain and spinal cord from cattle</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:37687.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">older than 6 months (material designated as specified bovine offal or SBO) for human</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:37706.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">consumption.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:37744.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">In 1990 a domestic cat was diagnosed as suffering from a 'scrapie-like' spongiform</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:37763.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">encephalopathy. This event generated concern that BSE might also be transmissible to other</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:37782.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">species, including humans.  In 1994 the Spongiform Encephalopathy Advisory Committee</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:37801.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(SEAC) judged the risk of transmissibility to humans to be remote only because precautionary</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:37820.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">measures had been put into place.  Scientists theorized that if BSE were transmitted to humans, it</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:37839.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">would be likely to resemble CJD and suggested that surveillance be put into place to identify</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:37858.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">atypical cases or changing patterns of the disease.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:37896.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">In 1996 a new variant of the human Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (now known as variant</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:37914.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">CJD or vCJD) was announced in the United Kingdom.  It was identified in a small group of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:38016.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:38052.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 2</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.20pt;top:38760.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.90pt;top:38760.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">38 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:38088.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">people, all of whom were much younger than most individuals who develop CJD (Will et al.,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:38107.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">1996, CJD Surveillance Unit, 2001).  These cases shared clinical and neuropathological features</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:38126.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">that differed from those of CJD.  As of August 31, 2001, the total number of definite and</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:38145.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">probable cases of vCJD reported in the United Kingdom was 106, including 12 probable vCJD</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:38164.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">deaths from which neuropathological confirmation will never be possible (CJD Surveillance Unit,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:38183.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">2001). Outside the UK, four vCJD cases have been reported in France, one in Ireland, and one in</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:38202.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Hong Kong.  Clinical, pathological and molecular studies provide compelling evidence that the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:38221.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">agent that causes vCJD is the same as that which causes BSE (Will et al., 1996, Collinge et al.,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:38239.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">1996, Bruce et al., 1997, Hill et al., 1997, Scott et al., 1999).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:38277.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Following the announcement by the UK government that there appeared to be a link</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:38296.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">between BSE and vCJD, several additional measures were taken to reduce human exposure to the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:38315.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">infective agent.  SEAC recommended in March, 1996 that carcasses from cattle aged over 30</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:38334.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">months be deboned in licensed plants and that the trimmings be classified as SBO.  SEAC’s</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:38353.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">suggestion was implemented in a 1997 regulation requiring the deboning of all beef from cattle</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:38372.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">over six months old.  The ban on retail sales of bone-in beef was lifted in 1999 following a</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:38391.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">continued decline in the incidence of BSE and the implementation of other control measures to</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:38410.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">protect against the introduction of BSE into the human food supply.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:38448.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Among other measures introduced were the compensation of producers for the loss of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:38467.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">animals due to regulations related to the protection of public health and the eradication of BSE.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:38486.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Regulations aimed at eradicating BSE included the “selective cull” (implemented in 1997), which</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:38505.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">targeted for eradication animals that were the same age as an identified BSE case from their herd.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:38524.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Another regulation aimed specifically at protecting human health was the so-called “over 30</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:38543.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">month scheme” (implemented in 1996), which prohibited the sale of beef from cattle over the age</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:38562.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">of thirty months for human consumption.  The rational for this ban was that cattle over the age of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:38581.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">30 months could carry potentially substantial levels of infectivity in different tissues without</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:38600.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">having yet developed clinical signs of the disease.  Table 2-2 outlines the chronology of the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:38619.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">regulations implemented in the UK following the initial outbreak of BSE in 1986.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:38808.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:38844.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 2</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.20pt;top:39552.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.90pt;top:39552.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">39 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:283.70pt;top:38880.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Table 2-2</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:174.85pt;top:38893.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Chronology BSE-Related Regulatory Actions in the UK</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:100.35pt;top:38925.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Year Regulatory Action</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:84pt;top:38924pt;width:55pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:139pt;top:38924pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:139pt;top:38924pt;width:386pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:84pt;top:38937pt;width:55pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:84pt;top:38939pt;width:55pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:139pt;top:38937pt;width: 2pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:139pt;top:38939pt;width: 2pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:141pt;top:38937pt;width:384pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:141pt;top:38939pt;width:384pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:38952.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">1988 Compulsory notification</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:145.00pt;top:38965.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Ruminant feed ban</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:145.00pt;top:38978.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Slaughter compensation</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:39003.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">1989</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:145.05pt;top:39003.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Bovine offal prohibition: banned the use of SBO for human consumption</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:39028.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">1990 Bovine identification</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:145.00pt;top:39041.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Marking and breeding records</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:145.00pt;top:39053.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Selective culling</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:145.00pt;top:39066.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Ban on the feed of SBO to any animals</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:39091.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">1991</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:145.05pt;top:39091.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Control exports of bovine offal proteins and feeds containing such proteins</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:39117.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">1994</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:145.00pt;top:39117.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Extended control of SBO</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:145.00pt;top:39129.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Prohibition on the use of mammalian proteins in ruminant feeds</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:39155.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">1995</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:145.05pt;top:39155.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Removal of spinal cord from bovine over 6 months</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:39180.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">1996</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:145.05pt;top:39180.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Prohibition on the use of mammalian MBM in feed for livestock, fish and horses</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:145.00pt;top:39192.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The over 30 months scheme</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:39218.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">1997 Beef-bone regulations</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:39243.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">1998</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:145.05pt;top:39243.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">EU lifted ban on the export of UK beef</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:39268.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">1999</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:145.05pt;top:39268.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Prohibition on the retail sale of bone-in beef lifted</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:39294.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">2000</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:145.05pt;top:39294.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">EU decision to test all cattle aged over 30 months presented for human consumption</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:145.00pt;top:39306.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(implemented in 2001).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:84pt;top:39319pt;width:55pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:139pt;top:39319pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:139pt;top:39319pt;width:386pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:39339.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">2.4.3</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:39339.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Actions to Address BSE in Europe</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:39369.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Other countries that have reported cases of BSE imported either animals or animal feed</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:39388.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">from the UK.  It is estimated that a total of 58,000 adult breeding cattle were exported from the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:39407.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">UK between 1985 and 1990.  The UK also exported MBM during the years that the BSE agent is</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:39426.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">thought to have been present in rendering products from the UK.  For example, because the price</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:39445.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">of MBM in England fell in 1989, exports of MBM doubled during that year (</FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">e.g</FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">, 15,000 tons of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:39464.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">MBM were exported to France alone in 1989) (Taylor and Woodgate, 1997).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:39600.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:39636.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 2</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.20pt;top:40344.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.90pt;top:40344.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">40 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:39672.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Cases of BSE have been reported in several countries.  Some of these cases occurred in</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:39691.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">animals directly imported from the UK or in cattle fed with feed containing UK MBM.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:39710.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Following export of the disease from the UK, small epidemics were observed in Northern Ireland,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:39729.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Switzerland, France, and Portugal, presumably caused by the rendering and feeding of material</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:39748.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">from diseased animals.  Few countries in Europe have not reported any BSE cases.  Since the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:39767.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">detection of BSE depends on the characteristics of the surveillance system, the absence of a</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:39786.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">reported case does not rule out the presence of the disease.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:39823.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Due to the potential spread of BSE to other countries, the European Union and other</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:39842.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">international organizations have taken a wide range of measures to protect human and animal</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:39861.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">health and to stop the spread of the epizootic (European Commission, 2001)</FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="ff0000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">. </FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Some of the most</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:39880.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">important measures that have been taken by the international community include the following:</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:39918.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Symbol" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">•</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:39919.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The World Health Organization (WHO) in 1996 recommended that all countries</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:39932.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">ban the use of ruminant tissues in ruminant feed.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:39955.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Symbol" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">•</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:39956.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">In 1996, the European Commission banned the export of British live cattle, beef,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:39969.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">semen, embryos, and all products produced from slaughter in the United</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:39981.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Kingdom.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:40005.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Symbol" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">•</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:40006.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The Office International des Epizzoties (OIE), the world organization for animal</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:40019.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">health, has codified the requirements for member countries to be considered BSE</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:40031.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">free.  A risk assessment of the potential hazards is a pre-requisite.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:40054.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Symbol" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">•</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:40056.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Feed bans in other countries:  Since 1996, many countries started implementation</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:40068.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">of feed bans.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:40091.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Symbol" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">•</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:40093.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">In 2000, the Scientific Steering Committee of the EU reported the assessment of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:40105.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">the geographical risk of BSE for 25 countries.  This assessment considers the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:40118.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">stability of the system and the likelihood of BSE occurring in the country (SSC,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:40131.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">2000c).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:40154.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Symbol" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">•</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:40155.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">In 2000, the European Commission adopted the decision to remove specified</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:40168.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">BSE risk materials from the feed chain and from human food.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:40191.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Symbol" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">•</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:40192.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">In 2000, the European Commission prohibited the use of certain animal by-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:40205.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">products, including MBM, and blood meal (but excluding milk, or fish meal)</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:40218.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">from non-ruminants in feed for any farm animal species (effective January 1,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:40230.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">2001).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:40253.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Symbol" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">•</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:40254.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">In 2000, the European Commissions extended the SRM list to include bovine</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:40267.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">intestines.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:40392.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:40428.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 2</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.20pt;top:41136.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.90pt;top:41136.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">41 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:40463.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Symbol" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">•</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:40464.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">In 2000, the European Commission adopted the decision to test all cattle over 30</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:40477.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">months of age.  All animals over 30 months that cannot be tested or that test</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:40490.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">positive for BSE must be destroyed.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:40533.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">2.4.4</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.10pt;top:40533.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Measures to Prevent the Establishment of BSE in the United States Cattle</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:40545.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Population</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:40576.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">After more than 11 years of surveillance of high-risk animals, no confirmed cases of BSE</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:40595.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">have been reported in the United States.  In cooperation with USDA’s Food Safety and Inspection</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:40614.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Service (FSIS), the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Services (APHIS) has taken measures in</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:40633.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">prevention, education, surveillance, and response to reduce the risk of the introduction of BSE</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:40652.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">into the U.S. cattle population.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:40690.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">BSE became a reportable disease in the U.S. in 1986 (see Title 9 of the Code of Federal</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:40708.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Regulations, Parts 71 and 161).  As a result, USDA must be notified of suspect cases.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:40727.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Restrictions on imports from BSE countries have been in place since 1989, and active</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:40746.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">surveillance efforts began in 1990.  As part of its surveillance effort, USDA has attempted to</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:40765.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">determine the disposition of cattle that were imported from the UK and the Republic of Ireland</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:40784.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">between 1980 and 1989.  The Department continues to closely monitor the cattle in this group</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:40803.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">that have been located and are still alive.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:40841.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">In 1989, APHIS banned the import of all ruminants and restricted the importation of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:40860.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">certain cattle products from the United Kingdom and other countries where BSE was diagnosed.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:40879.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">In 1991, APHIS restricted the import of ruminant meat and edible products and banned most</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:40898.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">byproducts of ruminant origin from countries known to have BSE in a native animal (Title 9</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:40917.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Code of Federal Regulations, Part 94.18 and 95.4).  Countries whose products were restricted due</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:40936.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">to BSE prior to 1997 included:  the UK (1989), the Republic of Ireland (1989), Switzerland</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:40955.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(1990), Oman (1990), France (1991), and Portugal (1994).  In 1997, the US government</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:40974.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">prohibited the import of live ruminants and most ruminant products from all of Europe until a</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:40993.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">thorough assessment of the risks is conducted (USDA-APHIS, 2000b).  In December, 2000,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:41012.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">restrictions included a ban in the importation of all processed animal proteins regardless the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:41031.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">species, offal, tankage, ruminant fat, glands, processed fats and oils, and some tallow.  The</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:41050.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">importation restrictions in 2001 included a ban in the import of all ruminant meat, meat products</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:41069.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">and other edible ruminant products that were stored, processed or otherwise associated with a</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:41184.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:41220.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 2</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.20pt;top:41928.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.90pt;top:41928.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">42 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:41256.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">facility located in Europe or Oman.  In 1990, APHIS developed a plan to respond to a BSE case</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:41275.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">in the U.S.  This plan was updated by the APHIS-FSIS BSE working group in 1996.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.00pt;top:41313.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">FSIS performs </FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">ante mortem </FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">slaughter inspections at all federally inspected slaughter</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:41332.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">establishments and veterinary medical officers and food inspectors routinely evaluate animals for</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:41351.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">central nervous system disorders.  Animals exhibiting suspicious CNS signs that may be</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:41370.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">indicative of BSE or any other reportable disease are withheld from slaughter.  In such cases,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:41389.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Veterinary Services is notified.  FSIS maintains a database containing information on </FONT></FONT><i><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">ante</FONT></FONT></i></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:41407.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">mortem </FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">and </FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">post mortem </FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">condemnations triggered by these and other conditions.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:41445.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) controls animal feed, thought to be the main</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:41464.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">exposure medium for BSE.  FDA prohibits the use of most mammalian protein in the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:41483.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">manufacture of animal feeds administered to ruminants (Food and Drug Administration, 1997).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:41502.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">This regulation is frequently referred to as the “feed ban.”  The regulation exempts the following</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:41521.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">products:  blood and blood byproducts, milk products, pure porcine and pure equine proteins,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:41540.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">plate waste, tallow, gelatin, and non-mammalian protein (poultry, marine, vegetable).  Exempted</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:41559.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">products are considered to be non-prohibited material and all other mammalian protein is</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:41578.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">considered to be prohibited material.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:41616.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The regulation specifies procedures for those renderers, protein blenders, feed</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:41635.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">manufacturers and distributors that produce prohibited material, non-prohibited material, or both.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:41654.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Firms must keep records on the origin of the materials and label prohibited material “</FONT></FONT><i><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Do not feed</FONT></FONT></i></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:41673.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">to cattle or other ruminants</FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">.”  Prohibited materials intended for export are exempt from this</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:41692.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">requirement and instead must be labeled “</FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">For export only</FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">.”  FDA requires that renderers,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:41711.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">blenders, feed manufacturers and distributors selling both restricted and unrestricted products</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:41730.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">ensure that the two types of proteins are kept separate throughout processing.  For example, there</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:41749.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">are minimum requirements for clean-out of the production line directly after the processing of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:41768.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">prohibited material (direct cleaning, flushing, </FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">etc.</FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">) before subsequently manufactured material</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:41787.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">can be considered to be non-prohibited.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:41825.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">In early January, 2001 FDA released results of a compliance survey of 9,947 rendering</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:41844.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">and feed mills.  The data demonstrated that there is significant noncompliance with the feed ban</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:41863.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">in segments of the feed industry (Food and Drug Administration, 2001b).  Table 2-3 summarizes</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:41882.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">the results of this survey.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:41976.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:42012.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 2</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.20pt;top:42720.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.90pt;top:42720.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">43 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:283.70pt;top:42061.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Table 2-3</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:114.15pt;top:42073.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">FDA Update on Ruminant Feed (BSE) Enforcement Activities (January 10, 2001)</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:294.50pt;top:42099.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Proportion of Firms in Compliance</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:94pt;top:42098pt;width:130pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:224pt;top:42098pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:225pt;top:42098pt;width:305pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:140.30pt;top:42112.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Practice Renders</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:292.35pt;top:42111.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">a</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:339.80pt;top:42112.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">FDA Licensed</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:346.70pt;top:42125.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Feed Mills</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:396.35pt;top:42123.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">b</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:441.70pt;top:42112.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Feed Mills  not</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:436.70pt;top:42125.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">licensed by FDA</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:514.10pt;top:42123.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">c</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:323pt;top:42111pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:324pt;top:42111pt;width:98pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:422pt;top:42111pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:423pt;top:42111pt;width:107pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:94pt;top:42137pt;width:130pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:94pt;top:42138pt;width:130pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:224pt;top:42137pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:224pt;top:42138pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:226pt;top:42137pt;width:97pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:226pt;top:42138pt;width:97pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:323pt;top:42137pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:323pt;top:42138pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:325pt;top:42137pt;width:97pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:325pt;top:42138pt;width:97pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:422pt;top:42137pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:422pt;top:42138pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:424pt;top:42137pt;width:106pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:424pt;top:42138pt;width:106pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:100.00pt;top:42151.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Firms whose products</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:100.00pt;top:42164.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">were labeled with the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:100.00pt;top:42177.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">required caution statement</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:264.40pt;top:42151.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">84% 80%  59%</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:100.00pt;top:42202.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Firms with a system to</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:100.00pt;top:42215.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">prevent commingling of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:100.00pt;top:42227.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">prohibited and non-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:100.00pt;top:42240.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">prohibited products</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:268.95pt;top:42202.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">72 91  74</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:100.00pt;top:42265.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Firms that followed record</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:100.00pt;top:42278.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">keeping regulations</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:261.75pt;top:42265.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">96-98 98</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:471.50pt;top:42265.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">91</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:94pt;top:42290pt;width:130pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:224pt;top:42290pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:225pt;top:42290pt;width:98pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:323pt;top:42290pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:324pt;top:42290pt;width:98pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:422pt;top:42290pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:423pt;top:42290pt;width:107pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:42310.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><i><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.00pt">Notes</FONT></FONT></i></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:42331.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><i><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.00pt">a.</FONT></FONT></i></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:42331.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><i><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.00pt">For Renderers --Total number of inspections –  239, firms handling prohibited material – 180.</FONT></FONT></i></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:42351.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><i><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.00pt">b.</FONT></FONT></i></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.00pt;top:42351.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><i><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.00pt">For FDA Licensed Feed Mills – 1,240 total, inspected–- 846.  Of those feed mills inspected, 347</FONT></FONT></i></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:42362.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><i><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.00pt">were handling prohibited material.</FONT></FONT></i></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:42382.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><i><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.00pt">c.</FONT></FONT></i></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:42382.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><i><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.00pt">For Non-FDA Licensed Feed Mills – 4,344 inspected (FDA does not know the total number</FONT></FONT></i></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:42393.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><i><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.00pt">because they are not required to be licensed by the Agency, but the number could be between 6,000</FONT></FONT></i></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:42403.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><i><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.00pt">and 8,000).  Of those feed mills inspected, 1,593 were handling prohibited material.</FONT></FONT></i></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:42432.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has also taken steps to reduce the risk of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:42451.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">contaminating with BSE pharmaceuticals that contain or are produced with materials of bovine</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:42470.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">origin.  These steps include the following:</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:42508.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Symbol" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">•</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:42509.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">In 1992, FDA recommended the use of scrapie/BSE-free sources for materials</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:42522.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">used in dietary supplements.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:42545.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Symbol" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">•</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:42546.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">In 1993, FDA recommended that cell lines used for biologics be BSE-free.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:42569.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Symbol" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">•</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:42571.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">In 1993, FDA requested that bovine sourced materials, except gelatin, used in</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:42583.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">manufacture of regulated products be restricted to BSE-free countries.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:42606.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Symbol" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">•</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:42608.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">In 1994, FDA requested that bovine derived material for use in cosmetics and</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:42620.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">dietary supplements not be sourced from BSE countries.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:42643.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Symbol" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">•</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:42645.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">In 1996, FDA recommended the withdrawal of plasma and plasma products</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:42657.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">made from pools of persons who later developed CJD.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:42768.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:42804.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 2</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.20pt;top:43512.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.90pt;top:43512.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">44 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:42839.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Symbol" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">•</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:42840.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">In 1997, FDA requested more restrictions on the use of bovine gelatin originated</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:42853.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">from BSE countries.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:42876.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Symbol" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">•</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:42877.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">In 1999, FDA recommended deferring the use of blood from donors with more</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:42890.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">than six months cumulative residence in UK during the period from 1980 to</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:42903.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">1996.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:42946.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">2.4.5</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.10pt;top:42946.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">BSE Surveillance in the United States</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:42976.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">In addition to measures intended to mitigate the risk of BSE becoming established or</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:42995.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">propagated in the United States, the federal government has also implemented a surveillance</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:43014.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">program to help identify BSE as soon as possible if it were introduced into the U.S.  Since 1986,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:43033.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">when BSE became reportable in the U.S., USDA has encouraged the submission of brain tissue</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:43052.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">samples for testing, and has engaged in educating practitioners to look for and recognize the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:43071.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">disease.  Brain submissions are examined histologically, and immunohistochemistry has been</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:43090.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">used since 1993.  USDA is considering the incorporation of rapid diagnostic tests for targeted</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:43109.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">surveillance in the future (Linda Detwiler, personal communication, 2001).  Between 1990 and</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:43128.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">July 2001, over 13,900 brains were examined.  For each of the last six years, the rate of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:43147.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">surveillance has been approximately double the International Office of Epizooties (OIE) standard</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:43166.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(OIE, 2001).  In 2000 and 2001, the number of brains examined was more than five times the OIE</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:43185.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">standard.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:43223.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Animals targeted for surveillance by APHIS include cattle exhibiting signs of neurologic</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:43242.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">disease in the field (</FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">i.e., </FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">prior to being brought to slaughter), cattle condemned at slaughter for</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:43261.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">neurologic reasons, rabies-negative cattle submitted to public health laboratories, neurologic</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:43280.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">cases submitted to veterinary diagnostic laboratories and teaching hospitals, and a sampling of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:43299.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">cattle that are nonambulatory (“downer cattle”) at slaughter.  Although the signs exhibited by</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:43318.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">downer animals are generally not typical of BSE, some have suggested that these animals are a</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:43337.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">high-risk population based on anecdotal information that a TME outbreak could be linked to</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:43356.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">feeding practices involving downer cattle (Marsh et al., 1991).  In addition, U.S. cattle inoculated</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:43374.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">i.c. with North American scrapie strains developed signs inconsistent with BSE signs manifest in</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:43394.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">affected animals in Europe but similar to those of “downer” animals (Cutlip et al., 1994, Cutlip et</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:43413.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">al., 1997).  The APHIS surveillance approach takes into account regional differences in the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:43431.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">movement of animals.  For example, based on movement patterns, the U.S. is divided into eight</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:43450.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">regions where adult cattle would typically live and exit the production system.  Based on the adult</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:43560.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:43596.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 2</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.20pt;top:44304.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.90pt;top:44304.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">45 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:43632.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">cattle populations in each region, APHIS has calculated regional surveillance goals for BSE based</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:43651.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">on international standards as if each region were an individual country.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:43689.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">In addition to surveillance for the presence of BSE, The Centers for Disease Control and</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:43708.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Prevention (CDC) monitors the incidence of CJD in the U.S. by analyzing death certificate</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:43727.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">information from multiple-cause-of-death data compiled by the National Center for Health</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:43746.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Statistics.  This information is also used to search for possible cases of vCJD in the U.S.  As of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:43765.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">September 2001, no such cases had been identified in the United States.  Nor had any change in</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:43783.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">the incidence of CJD been observed.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:44352.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:44388.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 3</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.20pt;top:45096.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.90pt;top:45096.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">46 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:44424.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 14.04pt">3 Methodology</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:44458.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">This section has four parts.  Section 3.1 describes the simulation model developed as part</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:44477.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">of this analysis to quantify the impact of introducing BSE into the U.S. cattle population on both</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:44496.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">animal health and on potential human exposure to contaminated food products.  The description</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:44515.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">of the model in Section 3.1 reflects assumptions that are part of our “base case” scenario.  This</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:44534.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">scenario represents the present state of the U.S. cattle population, along with government</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:44553.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">regulations and prevailing agricultural practices.  Section 3.2 describes the uncertainty analyses</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:44572.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(also referred to as a sensitivity analysis) conducted to determine how changing various</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:44591.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">assumptions influences the model’s predictions.  Section 3.3 describes how we used the model,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:44610.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">with its base case assumptions, to evaluate the impact of alternative sources of infectivity on the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:44629.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">U.S. given current conditions.  These sources include spontaneous BSE, importation of from 1 to</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:44647.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">500 BSE-infected cattle, domestic scrapie, chronic wasting disease, TSEs in domestic mink, pigs,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:44666.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">and chickens, and recycled food waste.  Finally, Section 3.4 evaluates alternative scenarios,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:44685.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">including Switzerland during the period when it is thought that country first imported BSE-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:44704.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">infected animals.  That evaluation, which compares empirically reported clinical BSE cases in</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:44723.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Switzerland during the period 1985 to 2001 to the corresponding number of clinical cases</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:44742.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">predicted by the model, serves as an indicator of the model’s plausibility.  Section 3.4 also</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:44761.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">describes our methodology for evaluating the possibility of spontaneous BSE in the U.S. prior to</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:44780.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">the 1997 feed ban, the impact of importing infected cattle from the UK during the 1980s, and the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:44799.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">implementation of various risk management strategies in the U.S.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:44837.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 12.00pt">3.1</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:44837.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 12.00pt">Simulation Model and Base Case Assumptions</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:44869.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The simulation model can be thought of as consisting of four components, as illustrated</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:44888.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">in Figure 3.1.  The first component (Section 3.1.1) characterizes the lifecycle of cattle in the US,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:44907.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">quantifies the potential infection of animals at different points during this cycle, and characterizes</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:44926.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">their ultimate disposition (slaughter, death due to natural causes followed by either disposal or</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:44945.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">rendering, and death due to BSE infection followed by either disposal or rendering).  The second</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:44964.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">component of the model (Section 3.1.2) describes how animals sent to slaughter are processed.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:44983.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Tissue may be disposed of, sent to rendering, or prepared for potential human consumption.  The</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:45002.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">third component of the model (Section 3.1.3) characterizes the disposition of material sent to</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:45021.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">rendering.  That material may exit the system (</FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">e.g., </FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">because it will be disposed of, exported, or</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:45040.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">used to produce feed for animals other than cattle) or end up in feed that is administered to cattle.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:45144.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:45180.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 3</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.20pt;top:45888.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.90pt;top:45888.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">47 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:45216.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The final component of the model (Section 3.1.4) quantifies infectivity in material presented for</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:45235.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">human consumption.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:45273.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">3.1.1</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:45273.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Cattle Population Dynamics</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:45303.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Figure 3-2 further details the cattle population dynamics component of the simulation</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:45322.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">model.  In particular, this component describes the rate at which cattle are born, the rate at which</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:45341.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">animals are slaughtered, and the rate at which they die of other causes.  Cattle can become</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:45360.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">infected when they are born as a result of maternal transmission.  Alternatively, they can be born</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:45379.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">uninfected but become infected later as a result of exposure to BSE-contaminated feed.  Infected</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:45398.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">animals may proceed to the clinical stage of the disease.  Alternatively, they may be slaughtered,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:45417.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">or die of other causes.  Likewise, animals displaying clinical signs may also be slaughtered or die</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:45436.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">of other causes, including BSE.  Section 3.3 details the different ways in which BSE infectivity</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:45455.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">could be introduced to the U.S. cattle population.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:45493.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The model includes a detailed characterization of the cattle population dynamics because</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:45512.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">many of the rates influencing disease prevalence depend on animal age, type, and gender.  Rates</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:45531.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">depending on at least some of these factors include the rate at which healthy animals become</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:45550.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">infected due to consumption of contaminated feed (this dependence stems from the influence of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:45569.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">age, type and gender on the amount of meat and bone meal (MBM) animals consume, and the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:45588.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">influence of age on susceptibility to infection given a specified exposure), the rate at which</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:45607.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">animals are slaughtered, and the rate at which animals die of causes other than slaughter.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:45645.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The remainder of this section summarizes the following base case assumptions:  1) the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:45664.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">number of animals in the U.S. cattle population by age, gender, and type (</FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">i.e.</FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">, dairy or beef,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:45683.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">destined for production or breeding), their birth rate, slaughter rate, and rate of death from other</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:45702.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">causes; 2) cattle consumption of bypass protein and blood meal by age, type, and gender; 3) the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:45721.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">dose-response relationship for cattle orally exposed to BSE and the influence of age on this</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:45740.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">relationship; 4) the rate at which infected cows transmit BSE to their offspring; and 5) the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:45759.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">incubation period for BSE (</FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">i.e.</FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">, the time between infection and when clinical signs become</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:45778.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">apparent) and the time until death following the development of clinical signs.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:45936.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:45972.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 3</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.20pt;top:46680.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.90pt;top:46680.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">48 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:46008.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">3.1.1.1  Size of Cattle Population, Birth Rates, Slaughter Rates, and Rates of Death</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:46021.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">due to Other Causes</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:46051.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The simulation developed for this analysis requires specification of the number of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:46070.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">animals by age in months for each gender within each of three animal classes: dairy, beef, and</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:46089.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">beef reproductive animals.  This last group represents those beef cattle that live beyond the age of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:46108.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">24 months for the purpose of providing beef calves.  Base case values for the cattle population</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:46127.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">size appear in parameter <initsize> of the parameter group genesisVisitor (see Appendix 1).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:46165.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Developing this information was complicated by the fact that available data sources do</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:46184.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">not break down the age distribution in sufficient detail, and in some cases, combine groups that</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:46203.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">must be characterized separately for the simulation.  For example, statistics published by the FSIS</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:46222.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Animal Disposition Reporting System (ADRS) (USDA-FSIS, 1998) report the slaughter rate for</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:46241.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">dairy and beef cows combined, rather than breaking out the slaughter rate for each group</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:46260.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">separately.  The development of this information has been further complicated by the fact that</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:46279.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">some of the reported statistics do not appear to be consistent with each other.  For example, as</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:46298.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">explained below, the reported number of steers and heifers slaughtered is consistent with birth</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:46317.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">rates that imply a total cattle population of 140 million, rather than the true value of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:46335.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">approximately 100 million.  When forced to diverge from reported statistics for the purpose of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:46355.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">maintaining internal consistency, we do so in ways that minimize the impact of distortions on the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:46374.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">validity of the simulation results.  In the example described in this paragraph, our inflation of the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:46392.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">U.S. cattle population should have a minimal impact on simulation results because the rate at</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:46411.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">which BSE spreads does not in general depend on this statistic .</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:366.75pt;top:46410.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">3</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:46449.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><i><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Population size</FONT></FONT></i></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:46487.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The specific population values for each age/type/gender category were computed using</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:46506.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">spreadsheet software and the birth, death, and slaughter rates described in this section.  The</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:46525.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">documentation in Appendix 1 (parameter group genesisVisitor, parameter <initSize>) describes</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:46544.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">these computations.  However, although the simulations used these values to specify an initial</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:46563.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">population distribution, the model altered these values to reflect the simulated impact of birth,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:46582.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">death, and slaughter.  As a result of these influences, the initial population of approximately 140</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:90pt;top:46617pt;width:144pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:46621.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.48pt">3</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:95.80pt;top:46623.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.00pt">The possibility of spontaneous development of BSE is the one exception to this generalization because its rate is</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:46634.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.00pt">proportional to the size of the population.  By overstating the size of the population, we have therefore overstated the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:46644.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.00pt">potential impact of spontaneous disease, should it exist </FONT><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">(See 5.1.2.5.)</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:46728.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:46764.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 3</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.20pt;top:47472.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.90pt;top:47472.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">49 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:46800.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">million decreases to and stabilizes at approximately 130 million during execution of the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:46819.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">simulation.  As noted above, this change has a very limited impact on the simulation results.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:46857.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><i><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Slaughter Rate</FONT></FONT></i></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:46895.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Animals are removed from the herd for slaughter at different rates depending on age, type</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:46914.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">and gender.  The base case assumptions for the slaughter rates are based on statistics recorded by</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:46933.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">USDA and are detailed in Table <rateSlaughter> of the rateSlaughter file (see Appendix 1).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:46970.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><i><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Death Rate for Reasons Other Than Slaughter</FONT></FONT></i></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:47008.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The so-called “natural death rate” may be potentially important because some fraction of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:47027.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">these animals, also referred to as animals that die on the farm, are sent to rendering.  Animals that</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:47046.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">die on the farm due to BSE infection have the maximum level of infectivity and therefore</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:47065.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">introduce the possibility that a substantial amount of BSE contamination could enter the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:47084.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">rendering system.  The base case assumes that animals with BSE will live only 2 to 6 months</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:47103.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">after reaching the clinical stage of the disease.  The natural death rates assumed by the base case</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:47122.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">appear in Table <probDeath> in file deathVisitor (see Appendix 1).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:47160.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><i><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Birth rate assumptions</FONT></FONT></i></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:47198.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The base case assumes that female cattle can calve between the ages of 24 and 180</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:47217.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">months.  During that time, they produce a calf once every 12 months on average.  Documentation</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:47236.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">accompanying the birthVisitor file (see Appendix 1) explains the basis for these assumptions.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:47274.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">3.1.1.2  Cattle Consumption of Bypass protein and Blood Meal</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:47305.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">MBM is one supplement for livestock feed, although in the U.S., other sources are also</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:47324.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">used, especially vegetable protein derived primarily from soybeans.  The primary hypothesis for</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:47343.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">the spread of BSE in the UK is that infectious materials was recycled through the rendering and</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:47362.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">feed production processes resulting in the subsequent exposure of cattle.  The amount of bypass</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:47381.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">protein-supplemented feed consumed by an animal, and hence its potential exposure to MBM,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:47400.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">depends on the animal’s age, type, and gender.  Dairy cows receive the greatest amounts of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:47418.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">supplemental bypass protein.  Because the base case assumes that there may be breaches of the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:47520.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:47556.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 3</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.20pt;top:48264.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.90pt;top:48264.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">50 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:47592.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">FDA feed ban (Section 3.1.3), some exposure can occur as the result of exposure to feed if BSE is</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:47611.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">present in the U.S.  The <consumption> table in files proteinInfector and bloodInfector</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:47630.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">respectively detail our assumptions for cattle consumption of bypass protein and blood meal.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:47668.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">3.1.1.3 BSE Dose-Response</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:47698.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The dose-response function for BSE quantifies the probability that an exposed animal</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:47717.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">will become infected with BSE as the result of ingesting contaminated materials.  The exposure is</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:47736.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">quantified in terms of the number of susceptibility-adjusted ID s ingested.  The susceptibility-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:366.95pt;top:47741.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">50</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:47755.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">adjusted ID</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:141.25pt;top:47760.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">50</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:151.00pt;top:47755.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">exposure equals the product of an age-specific susceptibility factor and the number</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:47774.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">of unadjusted ID s ingested.  The base case assumes that the dose response is linear up to an</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:164.30pt;top:47779.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">50</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:47793.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">exposure level of 2.0 adjusted ID s, with an infection probability of zero at an exposure level of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:236.80pt;top:47798.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">50</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:47812.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">zero, and an infection probability of 1.0 at an exposure level of 2.0 adjusted ID s.  For example,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:439.30pt;top:47817.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">50</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:47831.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">an animal that ingests 1.0 susceptibility-adjusted ID s has a 50% chance of becoming infected.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:319.35pt;top:47836.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">50</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:47850.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Note that an animal that ingests more than 2.0 adjusted ID s has a 100% chance of becoming</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:347.55pt;top:47855.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">50</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:47869.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">infected.  Figure 3-3 illustrates the straight-line dose-response relationship assumed as part of the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:47888.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">base case, along with a hypothetical alternative sigmoidal dose-response relationship.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:47926.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Our relationship between susceptibility and age (see Figure 3-4) is based on the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:47945.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">assumption that susceptibility peaks at age four months and that it declines exponentially</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:47964.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">thereafter at a rate of 85% per year, leveling off at approximately 10% of its peak value  (Koeijer</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:47983.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">et al., In press).  Table <susceptibility> in file proteinInfector (see Appendix 1) details this</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:48002.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">relationship.  Section 2 provides further background on susceptibility.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:48040.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">3.1.1.4 Maternal Transmission</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:48070.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Although there is no direct evidence of BSE transmission from cow to calf, it is assumed</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:48089.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">to have occurred when a calf born to a cow incubating BSE contracts the disease in the absence of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:48108.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">any other known sources of BSE exposure.  Section 2.2.1 reviews evidence of maternal</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:48127.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">transmission for other TSEs, with the best evidence from scrapie (Kimberlin, 1990, Foster et al.,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:48146.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">1992, Elsen et al., 1999), and for BSE (Wilesmith et al., 1997, Ferguson et al., 1997b, Donnelly et</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:48165.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">al., 1997a, Donnelly et al., 1997b, Donnelly, 1998).  The base case assumes calves born to</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:48184.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">infected cows during the last one-sixth of the incubation period will become infected with 10%</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:48203.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">probability.  Text accompanying table <maternalContagiousPoint> in file sickBovine and table</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:48312.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:48348.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 3</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.20pt;top:49056.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.90pt;top:49056.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">51 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:48384.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt"><probTrans> in file birthVisitor (see Appendix 1) further documents the basis for these two</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:48403.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">parameter values.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:48441.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">3.1.1.5  The BSE Incubation Period, and Time Until Death Caused by BSE</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:48471.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The base case assumes that the duration between infection and manifestation of clinical</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:48490.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">signs follows a distribution described inferred by Ferguson et al. (1997) (Ferguson et al., 1997a)</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:48509.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">from data collected in the UK.  The density is right-skewed with a median of approximately four</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:48528.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">years.  The 5 percentile is approximately 2.5 years, the median is approximately four years, and</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:147.15pt;top:48527.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">th</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:48547.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">the 95 percentile is approximately seven years.  Table <clinicalDate> in file sickBovine (see</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:117.40pt;top:48546.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">th</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:48566.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Appendix 1) further details this distribution.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:48604.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The base case assumes that the time between the manifestation of clinical signs and death</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:48623.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">is uniformly distributed between 2 and 6 months (Dagmar Heim, Personal Communication).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:48642.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Table <clinicalDuration> in file sickBovine (see Appendix 1) documents this assumption.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:48680.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">3.1.2</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:48680.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The Slaughter Process</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:48711.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">If an animal with BSE is slaughtered, some practices can contaminate tissues destined for</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:48729.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">potential human consumption with BSE infectivity.  In addition, many tissues not used for human</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:48749.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">consumption go to rendering and may become available to infect other bovines (Section 3.1.3).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:48768.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">This section describes the base case assumptions for the slaughter process (Figure 3-5).  It also</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:48786.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">describes ways in which infectivity can be diverted from uses that may result in either human or</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:48805.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">bovine exposure.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:48844.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">3.1.2.1  Level of Infectivity and Distribution of Infectivity Throughout the Carcass</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:48874.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The amount of infectivity that becomes available for human consumption or ends up</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:48893.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">being recycled into cattle feed depends in part on the total amount of infectivity in a slaughtered</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:48912.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">animal and how that infectivity is distributed through its carcass.  Our model assumes these</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:48931.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">factors depend on the amount of time that has passed since the slaughtered animal became</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:48950.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">infected.  Tables <organDistribution> and <totalInfectivity> in file materializer (see Appendix 1)</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:48969.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">details our base case assumptions.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:49104.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:49140.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 3</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.20pt;top:49848.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.90pt;top:49848.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">52 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:49176.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Our description of the distribution of infectivity among the tissues of an infected animal</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:49195.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">is based on the pathogenesis experiment (Wells et al., 1998, Wells et al., 1999), as interpreted by</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:49214.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">SEAC (February, 1998).  This experiment measured the infectivity in each of 44 tissues and</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:49233.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">fluids following experimental infection of cows with BSE.  The experiment found infectivity in</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:49252.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">the small intestine from months 6 to 18 months post infection, with no detectable infectivity in</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:49271.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">any other tissues.  At the end stage of disease, (</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:299.65pt;top:49270.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Symbol" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">≥</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:308.50pt;top:49271.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">32 months post infection), infectivity was found</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:49291.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">in the brain, spinal cord, dorsal root ganglia (DRG), trigeminal ganglia (TGG), and again in the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:49310.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">small intestine.  We assume that findings of infectivity in bone marrow at one time point were</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:49329.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">spurious, although we do investigate the potential for the disease to directly infect blood (so-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:49348.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">called “inherent infectivity”) (Section 3.2.6).  Table 3-1 details our specific assumptions.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:49386.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Note that these assumptions are based on an assumed incubation period of 36 months (as</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:49405.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">observed in the pathogenesis study).  For animals with incubation periods of durations other than</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:49424.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">36 months, the time periods post inoculation are scaled accordingly. For example, for an animal</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:49443.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">with an incubation period of 72 months, there is no infectivity in the brain prior to month 64 (</FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">i.e.</FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:49462.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">32</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:103.85pt;top:49461.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Symbol" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">×</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:112.70pt;top:49462.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">72 / 36).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:49896.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:49932.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 3</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.20pt;top:50640.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.90pt;top:50640.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">53 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:283.70pt;top:49968.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Table 3-1</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:132.85pt;top:49981.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Relative Infectivity of Specific Tissues Specified From an Infected Bovine</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:244.80pt;top:49993.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(Based on </FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 12.00pt">(SSC, 1999a)</FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">)</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:363.75pt;top:49993.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">a</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:143.30pt;top:50026.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Tissue</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:331.25pt;top:50026.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Fraction of Total Infectivity</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:84pt;top:50026pt;width:147pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:231pt;top:50026pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:232pt;top:50026pt;width:329pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:84pt;top:50039pt;width:147pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:84pt;top:50040pt;width:147pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:231pt;top:50039pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:231pt;top:50040pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:233pt;top:50039pt;width:328pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:233pt;top:50040pt;width:328pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:50053.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Brain</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:237.65pt;top:50053.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">No infectivity in cattle < 32 months post-inoculation (PI)</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:237.60pt;top:50066.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">32 months PI and over: 64.1%</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:50091.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Trigeminal Ganglia</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:237.55pt;top:50091.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">No infectivity in cattle < 32 months post-inoculation.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:237.60pt;top:50104.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">32 months PI and over: 2.6%</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:50129.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Other Head (eyes, </FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">etc.</FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">)</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:237.60pt;top:50129.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">No infectivity in cattle < 32 months post-inoculation.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:237.60pt;top:50142.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">32 months PI and over: 0.04%</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:50167.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Distal Ileum</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:237.60pt;top:50167.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">6-18 months post inoculation: 100%</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:237.60pt;top:50179.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">18-31: No Infectivity</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:237.60pt;top:50192.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">32 months PI and over 3.3%</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:50217.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Spinal Cord</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:237.65pt;top:50217.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">No infectivity in cattle < 32 months post-inoculation.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:237.60pt;top:50230.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">32 months PI and over: 25.6% infectivity</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:50255.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Dorsal Root Ganglia</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:237.55pt;top:50255.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">No infectivity in cattle < 32 months post-inoculation.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:237.60pt;top:50268.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">32 months PI and over: 3.8 % infectivity</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:84pt;top:50281pt;width:147pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:231pt;top:50281pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:232pt;top:50281pt;width:329pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:50300.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><i><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.00pt">Notes:</FONT></FONT></i></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:50321.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><i><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.00pt">a.</FONT></FONT></i></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.00pt;top:50321.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><i><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.00pt">The post-inoculation time values in this table reflect the assumption that the incubation period is 36</FONT></FONT></i></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:50331.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><i><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.00pt">months.  See text for explanation.</FONT></FONT></i></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:50361.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The base case assumes that the total quantity of infectivity in an animal with BSE reaches</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:50379.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">its maximum level when the animal develops clinically detectable signs (</FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">i.e.</FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">, becomes “clinical”)</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:50398.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(see Section 3.1.1.5 for a discussion of the incubation period duration).  Prior to that time, the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:50417.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">total level of infectivity follows the pattern illustrated in Figure 3-6.  In this example, the animal</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:50436.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">develops clinical signs 36 months after infection.  During the first five months of infection, total</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:50455.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">infectivity in the animal is around 0.1% of its maximum value, followed by an increase to around</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:50474.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">2.5% of its maximum value between months 6 and 18 post infection.  Up until this point, all</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:50493.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">infectivity is assumed to be in the gut.  Starting in month 19, infectivity is assumed to be</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:50512.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">distributed among several tissues, with the bulk in the brain and the spinal cord, and the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:50531.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">remainder divided among the gut, DRG, eyes, and TGG.  At this time, total infectivity drops to</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:50550.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">zero but and then grows exponentially until it reaches its maximum level in month 36.  For</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:50569.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">incubation periods other than 36 months, the model scales the horizontal (time) axis in Figure 3-6</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:50588.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">proportionally.  The total amount of infectivity in an animal with clinical BSE is assumed to</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:50688.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:50724.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 3</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.20pt;top:51432.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.90pt;top:51432.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">54 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:50760.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">10,000 cattle oral ID s (SSC, 1999a, SEAC, 2000, Gale and Stanfield, 2001).  Note that this</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:181.45pt;top:50765.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">50</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:50779.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">value has not been adjusted to reflect age-specific susceptibility (see Section 3.1.1.3).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:50817.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">3.1.2.2 </FONT></FONT><i><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Antemortem </FONT></FONT></i><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Inspection</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:50847.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Once the animal is at the slaughter facility, it is inspected for signs of disease.  FSIS</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:50866.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">regulations require that for certain diseases the whole animal is condemned at </FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">antemortem </FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(AM)</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:50885.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">inspection (USDA-FSIS, 1997).  Condemned animals can be rendered or incinerated.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:50923.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Animals not showing clinical signs at AM inspection are not likely to be condemned for</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:50942.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">BSE but could be condemned if they show signs of other diseases.  The condemnation rates for</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:50961.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">animals not showing clinical BSE signs depend on age and gender.  The rates used in the base</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:50980.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">case are based on data collected by FSIS for the year 1998 (see Table 3-2).  In particular, the base</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:50999.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">case assumes that the AM condemnation rate is approximately 1% for animals less than one year</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:51018.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">of age, 0.01% for animals between the ages of one year and 31 months, and 0.2% for animals</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:51037.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">older than 31 months of age.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:283.70pt;top:51075.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Table 3-2</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:203.55pt;top:51088.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Cattle Slaughtered and Condemned (1998)</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:404.90pt;top:51086.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">a</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:113.30pt;top:51114.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Cattle</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:104.30pt;top:51126.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">age group</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:192.15pt;top:51114.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Total</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:185.05pt;top:51126.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Animals</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:177.00pt;top:51139.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">slaughtered</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:262.00pt;top:51114.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Total</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:254.90pt;top:51126.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Animals</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:246.00pt;top:51139.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Condemned</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:318.35pt;top:51114.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Probability</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:326.05pt;top:51126.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">not pass</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:336.00pt;top:51139.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">AM</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:396.95pt;top:51114.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Animals</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:388.20pt;top:51126.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Condemned</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:387.75pt;top:51139.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Postmortem</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:463.70pt;top:51114.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Probability</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:461.75pt;top:51126.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">that will not</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:480.35pt;top:51139.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">pass</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:461.50pt;top:51152.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Postmortem</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:84pt;top:51113pt;width:86pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:170pt;top:51113pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:171pt;top:51113pt;width:67pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:238pt;top:51113pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:238pt;top:51113pt;width:71pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:310pt;top:51113pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:310pt;top:51113pt;width:68pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:379pt;top:51113pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:379pt;top:51113pt;width:73pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:453pt;top:51113pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:453pt;top:51113pt;width:73pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:51165.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">< 12 months</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:182.60pt;top:51165.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">1,483,430</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:260.75pt;top:51165.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">14859</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:329.95pt;top:51165.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">0.0098</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:401.50pt;top:51165.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">13,799</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:475.30pt;top:51165.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">0.0092</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:84pt;top:51164pt;width:86pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:84pt;top:51165pt;width:86pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:170pt;top:51164pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:170pt;top:51165pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:172pt;top:51164pt;width:66pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:172pt;top:51165pt;width:66pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:238pt;top:51164pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:238pt;top:51165pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:239pt;top:51164pt;width:70pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:239pt;top:51165pt;width:70pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:310pt;top:51164pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:310pt;top:51165pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:311pt;top:51164pt;width:67pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:311pt;top:51165pt;width:67pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:379pt;top:51164pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:379pt;top:51165pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:380pt;top:51164pt;width:72pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:380pt;top:51165pt;width:72pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:453pt;top:51164pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:453pt;top:51165pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:454pt;top:51164pt;width:72pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:454pt;top:51165pt;width:72pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:51178.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">12 to 24 months</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:179.80pt;top:51178.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">32,690,003</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:262.00pt;top:51178.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">2,349</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:329.95pt;top:51178.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">0.0001</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:401.45pt;top:51178.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">22,697</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:475.30pt;top:51178.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">0.0007</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:51190.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Symbol" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">≥</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:98.90pt;top:51192.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">24 months</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:182.65pt;top:51191.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">7,815,074 21,906  0.0028  11,0172  0.0139</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:84pt;top:51204pt;width:86pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:170pt;top:51204pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:171pt;top:51204pt;width:67pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:238pt;top:51204pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:238pt;top:51204pt;width:71pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:310pt;top:51204pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:310pt;top:51204pt;width:68pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:379pt;top:51204pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:379pt;top:51204pt;width:73pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:453pt;top:51204pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:453pt;top:51204pt;width:73pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:51224.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><i><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.00pt">Notes:</FONT></FONT></i></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:51244.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><i><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.00pt">a.</FONT></FONT></i></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.00pt;top:51244.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><i><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.00pt">From USDA: Animal Disposition Reporting System</FONT></FONT></i></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:51274.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Animals that are condemned following AM inspection are usually rendered, although a</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:51293.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">small proportion are incinerated.  The base case assumes that 98% of condemned animals are</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:51312.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">rendered and that the rest are incinerated.  The likelihood that an animal condemned at AM</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:51331.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">inspection is rendered or incinerated is assumed to be independent of its BSE status.  The means</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:51350.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">of disposal is important because animals that are incinerated cannot contaminate human food or</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:51369.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">animal feed.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:51480.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:51516.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 3</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.20pt;top:52224.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.90pt;top:52224.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">55 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:51552.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Animals that do manifest the clinical signs of BSE can be identified by AM inspectors.  It</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:51571.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">is also possible that farmers might hold back from slaughter animals with BSE signs to prevent</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:51590.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">the case from being discovered.  It is difficult to estimate how effectively U.S. inspectors would</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:51609.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">be at detecting an animal with BSE signs because the disease has not been detected in this</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:51628.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">country.  The USDA has conducted training for inspectors to make them aware of these signs.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:51647.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The effectiveness of inspectors at detecting other CNS diseases could in concept be used to</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:51666.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">estimate how effective they would be at detecting animals with clinical signs of BSE.  In practice,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:51685.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">however, the prevalence rate for these other diseases are often unknown.  Our base case assumes</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:51703.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">that clinical BSE cases would be detected at AM inspection 90% of the time.  Because this value</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:51722.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">is highly uncertain, our uncertainty analysis evaluates the impact of using a wide range of values</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:51741.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">on the results of our simulation (see Section 3.2.2).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:51780.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">3.1.2.3 Stunning</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:51810.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Stunning humanely renders animals unconscious for slaughter.  It is usually performed by</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:51829.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">mechanical devices, most commonly captive bolts that may or may not penetrate the skull.  One</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:51848.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">type of penetrating captive bolt is referred to as an “air-injected pneumatic stunner” because it</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:51867.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">injects a jet of air into the brain at the end of the cylinder stroke.  Stunners that use air injection</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:51886.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">can deposit CNS tissue emboli in blood, heart, lung, and liver.  Malfunctions in these devices</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:51905.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">both increase the probability that emboli will be created and the amount of emboli that will be</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:51924.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">deposited.  However, based on our conversations with USDA personnel (in headquarters and in</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:51943.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">the field), individuals in the beef packing industry, and others, the base case assumes that air-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:51962.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">injected stunning is not currently used in the U.S. cattle industry. Other scenarios evaluating past</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:51981.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">practices do assume the use of air-injected pneumatic stunning (see Section 3.2.2).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:52019.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">There is also some concern that other stunning methods may produce CNS micro-emboli</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:52038.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">that could contaminate blood (SSC, 2000b).  The base case assumes that stunners not using air</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:452pt;top:52049pt;width:14pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:52057.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">injection can create very small emboli that are found only in blood.  The amount of emboli in the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:52076.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">blood is not affected by whether the stunner malfunctions.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:52114.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The discussion in Appendix 1 for the <emboli> parameter in the stunner parameter group</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:52133.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">provides additional background on the development of these assumptions.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:52272.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:52308.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 3</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.20pt;top:53016.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.90pt;top:53016.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">56 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:52344.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">3.1.2.4 Exsanguination</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:52374.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Following stunning, animals are bled.  Bovine blood can be processed for human</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:52393.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">consumption, processed to make blood meal that can be used in ruminant feed, rendered, or</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:52412.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">disposed of.  The base case assumes that 15% of blood is made into blood meal that has the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:52431.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">potential to be used in cattle feed.  The base case also assumes that blood collected for human</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:52450.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">consumption is not contaminated with emboli.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:52488.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Blood collected to produce meal for animal consumption may become contaminated with</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:52507.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">CNS tissue if some of that tissue drips from the hole created by the stunner.  The base case</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:52526.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">assumes that air-injected pneumatic stunners generate this type of contamination with 30%</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:52545.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">probability, and that when this contamination does occur, 4% of the infectivity in the brain ends</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:52564.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">up in the blood being collected.  The base case assumes that stunners that do not use air injection</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:52583.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">never cause this type of contamination.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:52621.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">3.1.2.5  Disposition of Brain</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:52652.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Following exsanguination, the head is removed from the carcass.  USDA has mandated</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:52671.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">inspection of some parts of the head that are collected for human consumption (</FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">e.g</FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">, tongue).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:52689.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Because brain is the tissue with the greatest amount of infectivity in an animal with advanced</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:52709.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">BSE, the disposition of the head is important.  There are no available data on the fraction of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:52728.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">brains collected for sale as human food.  The base case assumes that 1% of the brains are</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:52746.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">removed for potential human consumption in the U.S. and that the rest are rendered.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:52785.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">3.1.2.6  Splitting and Aerosolization</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:52815.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">After removal of the head, the carcass is split longitudinally with a saw to facilitate</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:52834.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">handling and further processing.  When the carcass is split some spinal cord is aerosolized and</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:52853.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">can contaminate edible meat.  Based on data from experiments that measured the amount of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:52872.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">spinal cord associated protein deposited on the carcass during splitting (Harbour, 2001), the base</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:52891.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">case assumes that approximately 0.001% (2.5 mg) of the spinal cord contaminates edible meat.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:52910.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The base case further assumes that additional carcass treatments, like washing and steaming, do</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:52929.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">not reduce the amount of contamination.  Documentation accompanying table <fracAerosol> in</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:52948.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">file splitter (see Appendix 1) documents this assumption.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:53064.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:53100.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 3</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.20pt;top:53808.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.90pt;top:53808.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">57 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:53136.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">3.1.2.7  Disposition of the Spinal Cord and Dorsal Root Ganglia</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:53166.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The vertebrae of the animal are arranged in a column that houses and protects the spinal</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:53185.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">canal.  Because spinal cord and the dorsal root ganglia (DRG), which are nerve ends emerging</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:53204.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">from the spinal cord, can contain BSE infectivity, their disposition influences the extent to which</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:53223.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">meat recovered for human consumption may become contaminated.  The magnitude of this</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:53242.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">contamination and which selections of meat become contaminated depend on whether a mis-split</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:53261.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">occurs, whether the slaughter plant uses advanced meat recovery (AMR), and whether it removes</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:53280.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">the spinal cord from the carcass.  The extent to which AMR product becomes contaminated is</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:53299.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">particularly sensitive to mis-splits because they can leave behind pieces of spinal cord</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:53318.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">encapsulated in the vertebral column that are processed by AMR. This section first discusses the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:53337.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">frequency of mis-splits, the proportion of carcasses processed using AMR, and the proportion</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:53356.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">from which the spinal cord is removed.  Finally, it discusses how mis-splitting, AMR, and spinal</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:53375.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">cord removal influences contamination.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:53413.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><i><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Mis-split frequency</FONT></FONT></i></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:53451.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Mis-splitting refers to the incomplete cutting of the spinal column with a saw. A mis-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:53470.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">split occurs when the cut veers off the vertical and terminates at a point short of the cervical</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:53489.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">vertebrae (carcasses are split caudal to cranial).  The likelihood that mis-splitting will occur</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:53508.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">depends on the size and age of the animal (</FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">e.g.</FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">, calves are more likely to be mis-split than bulls or</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:53527.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">cows) and the proficiency of the saw operator.  The rate and extent of mis-splitting influences the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:53546.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">potential for spinal cord from an infected animal to contaminate human food, primarily in the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:53565.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Advanced Meat Recovery process (Section 3.1.2.8).  The base case assumes that among animals</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:53584.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">below the age of 24 months, mis-splits occur 5% of the time, whereas for older animals, mis-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:53603.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">splits occur 8% of the time.  Table <probMS_AMR_SCRemove> in file splitter (see Appendix 1)</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:53622.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">details estimates of the rate and extent of mis-splits.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:53660.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><i><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The proportion of cattle processed using AMR</FONT></FONT></i></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:53698.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Once the carcass is split, the disposition of the spinal cord depends on whether or not the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:53717.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">slaughter facility processes the vertebrae using advanced meat recovery (AMR).  AMR machines</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:53736.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">process bones to recover meat remaining after the hand deboning process is completed.  USDA</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:53754.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">rules allow the AMR product to be labeled as “meat”.  Approximately 70% of fed cattle and 60%</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:53856.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:53892.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 3</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.20pt;top:54600.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.90pt;top:54600.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">58 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:53928.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">of cows are processed in facilities that use AMR (Sparks Companies, 1999).  The base case</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:53947.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">assumes that AMR is used to process no animals below the age of 12 months, 65% of animals</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:53966.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">between the ages of 12 and 23 months, and 60% of animals 24 months of age or older.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:54004.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><i><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Spinal cord removal – Plants that use AMR</FONT></FONT></i></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:54042.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">An FSIS directive requires that the spinal cord be removed from the vertebral column</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:54061.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">before the backbones enter the AMR process.  The base case assumes that spinal cords are</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:54079.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">removed with 98% probability in plants using AMR. Spinal cords removed in this manner are</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:54098.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">rendered.  In the event that spinal cord is not removed prior to AMR, it can contaminate the AMR</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:54117.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">product, although the probability of this occurring is small.  In addition, if the carcass is mis-split,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:54136.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">the spinal cord that remains encapsulated in the spinal canal (usually a small portion of the spinal</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:54155.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">cord) contaminates AMR product unless it is removed by facility personnel.  Whether an AMR</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:54174.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">processing system is used depends on the size and age of the animal (</FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">e.g.</FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">, calves are not likely to</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:54193.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">go through AMR).  The amount of spinal cord left behind that can contaminate edible meat also</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:54212.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">depends on the age and type of the animal (</FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">e.g.</FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">, for steers and heifers, the lumbar area does not</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:54231.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">go through AMR because T-bone steaks are more profitable).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:54269.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><i><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Spinal cord Removal – Plants that do not use AMR</FONT></FONT></i></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:54307.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">If a facility does not use AMR, FSIS does not require removal of the spinal cord from the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:54326.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">carcass.  However, some slaughterhouses choose to remove it and send it to rendering.  The base</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:54345.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">case assumes that spinal cords are removed with 50% probability in plants that do not use AMR.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:54364.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">If the spinal cord is not removed, it remains in certain cuts of beef and is hence available for</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:54383.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">potential human consumption (</FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">e.g.</FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">, T-bone steak).  In addition, spinal cord left in the carcass can</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:54402.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">contaminate the boning table.  Finally, a small fraction of the spinal cords removed from steers</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:54421.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">and heifers are destined for human consumption.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:54459.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><i><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Fraction of spinal cord and DRG that contaminate meat recovered for human</FONT></FONT></i></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:54472.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><i><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">consumption</FONT></FONT></i></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:54503.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The DRG are firmly attached to the bones of the spinal column and are not removed even</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:54522.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">if the spinal cord is removed.  The disposition of the DRG depends on the cuts of beef recovered</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:54541.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">for human consumption (which depend on the age of the animal) and on the use of AMR</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:54560.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">processing systems.  For example, some cuts of meat from young animals, such as steers and</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:54648.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:54684.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 3</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.20pt;top:55392.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.90pt;top:55392.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">59 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:54720.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">heifers, might be sold with the vertebrae attached (</FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">e.g.</FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">, T-bone steaks), and in those particular</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:54739.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">circumstances DRG can reach the consumer.  However, it is important to note that even if DRG</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:54758.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">reaches the consumer, it is unlikely to be consumed unless the bone is aggressively cleaned.  In</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:54777.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">other regions of the vertebral column, DRG will remain attached to the bone because they are</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:54796.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">unlikely to be removed by standard deboning operations.  The vertebrae and DRG from young</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:54815.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">animals are likely to be rendered.  For older animals (</FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">e.g.</FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">, bulls and cows) that are deboned by</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:54834.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">hand, DRG will not reach the consumer and will instead be rendered.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:54871.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">If the spinal column is processed using AMR, the DRG are likely to contaminate the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:54890.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">AMR product.  For young animals, only a fraction of the vertebral column and DRG will be</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:54909.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">processed using AMR because parts of the backbone are contained in high value bone-in cuts of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:54928.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">meat.  For older animals, such as bulls or cows, all vertebrae are likely to be processed using</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:54947.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">AMR. If the facility does not process the spinal column using AMR, other technology, such as</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:54966.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">vibration or hand held knives (</FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">e.g.</FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">, Whizzard knives), are used to recover the remaining meat</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:54985.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">attached to the bones.  Because of the location of the DRG and the presentation of the backbones</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:55004.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">on the boning table, these knives are unlikely to incorporate DRG or spinal cord into meat or</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:55023.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">ground beef.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:55061.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Tables <fracDRGInMuscle>, <fracDRGInAMRMeat>, and <fracDRGInBone> in file</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:55080.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">splitter (see Appendix 1) detail the fraction of the infectivity in DRG that ends up contaminating</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:55099.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">muscle, AMR product, or remains connected to the bone, respectively. These values depend on</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:55118.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">whether a mis-split occurs, the use of AMR, and on whether the spinal cord is removed.  Tables</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:55137.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt"><fracSCInMuscle>, <fracSCInAMRMeat>, and <fracSCInBone> in file splitter (see Appendix 1)</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:55156.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">provide the corresponding assumptions for spinal cord contamination.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:55194.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">3.1.2.8 Postmortem Inspection</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:55225.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Organs and tissues from cattle passing AM inspection are inspected </FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">postmortem </FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(PM) to</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:55244.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">ensure fitness for human consumption.  FSIS regulations require that the whole animal be</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:55263.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">condemned when certain diseases are suspected, while for other diseases and conditions, only</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:55282.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">some tissues are excluded from use in human food.  There are no visible characteristics of BSE</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:55301.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">cattle that can be detected at PM inspection</FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">. </FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Nevertheless, the base case assumes that some</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:55320.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">infected animals or tissues from animals with BSE are condemned at PM inspection for reasons</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:55338.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">other than the presence of BSE.  These condemnation rates have been measured and reported by</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:55440.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:55476.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 3</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.20pt;top:56184.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.90pt;top:56184.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">60 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:55512.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">FSIS (Table 3-2).  The FSIS data specify rates by age and gender.  The base case rates appear in</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:55531.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Table <probPassPM> in file PMInspector (see Appendix 1).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:55569.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">3.1.2.9 Processing</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:55599.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">After the carcass is split, meat for human consumption is recovered.  Some potentially</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:55618.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">infectious tissues may be purposely recovered for potential human consumption.  The existence</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:55637.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">and quantity of infectivity in specific tissues depends on the age of the animal and the elapsed</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:55656.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">time since infection (see Section 3.1.2.1).  BSE infectivity potentially available for human</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:55675.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">consumption can come from specific tissues including cattle brain, spinal cord, cuts of meat with</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:55694.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">spinal cord or DRG, intestine, and from edible meat contaminated with infectious tissues (Section</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:55713.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">3.1.4).  Not all BSE infectivity available for potential human exposure is actually consumed.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:55732.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Rates of waste during distribution and in the home, portion sizes, and other factors will influence</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:55751.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">actual human exposure.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:55789.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">3.1.3</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:55789.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Rendering and Feed Production</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:55820.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Rendering is a process that recovers useful materials like fat, tallow, and protein, by</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:55839.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">cooking the animal remains, separating the products, and by further processing and purifying the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:55857.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">resulting meat and bone meal (MBM).  MBM is a rendering product rich in protein that can be</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:55877.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">used as a feed supplement, among other uses.  If the remains of an infected animal, including</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:55896.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">either a sheep with scrapie or a bovine with BSE, are made into MBM that is then fed to cattle,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:55914.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">additional animals could become infected.  Current regulations in the U.S. (Food and Drug</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:55933.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Administration, 1997) prohibit the feeding of mammalian derived protein to other ruminants with</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:55952.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">some exemptions.  The feed ban does not restrict the use in ruminant feed of porcine protein,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:55971.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">equine protein, ruminant blood, ruminant milk, plate waste, or gelatin.  Other sources of protein,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:55990.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">primarily of vegetable origin (</FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">e.g.</FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">, soy), are also widely used to supplement livestock rations.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:56009.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The extent of compliance with the feed ban in rendering and feed formulation influences the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:56028.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">extent of possible cattle exposure to infectivity from a rendered diseased animal.  Infectivity can</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:56047.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">also be eliminated as a result of using ruminant derived materials in ways that do not lead to any</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:56066.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">potential exposure among U.S. cattle (</FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">e.g., </FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">export).  Figure 3-7 illustrates our characterization of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:56085.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">how materials flow through rendering plants, feed formulation plants, and to the farm.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:56232.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:56268.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 3</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.20pt;top:56976.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.90pt;top:56976.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">61 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:56304.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">3.1.3.1 Rendering Inactivation</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:56334.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Rendering may reduce the amount of BSE infectivity in material by subjecting it to heat</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:56353.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">and pressure.  Different rendering systems (</FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">e.g.</FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">, continuous, batch, and vacuum) inactivate BSE</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:56372.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">or scrapie infectivity to different degrees (Taylor et al., 1995, Taylor et al., 1997, Schreuder et al.,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:56391.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">1998).  Table 3-3 quantifies the base case assumptions for the reduction in infectivity achieved by</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:56410.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">each technology and the proportion of animals rendered using each technology. The sensitivity</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:56429.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">analysis varies these proportions and the degree of inactivation achieved.  Table <renderFactor></FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:56448.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">in file renderer (see Appendix 1) provides further documentation of these assumptions.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:283.70pt;top:56486.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Table 3-3</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:98.90pt;top:56499.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Infectivity inactivation achieved and proportion of cattle processed by different types of</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:263.05pt;top:56512.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">rendering systems</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:127.70pt;top:56537.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Technology Infectivity Inactivation Proportion of cattle rendered</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:248.20pt;top:56550.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Achieved (log base 10) </FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:84pt;top:56537pt;width:140pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:225pt;top:56537pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:225pt;top:56537pt;width:150pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:376pt;top:56537pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:376pt;top:56537pt;width:150pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:56564.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Batch 3.1 logs</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:444.50pt;top:56564.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">5%</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:84pt;top:56562pt;width:140pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:84pt;top:56563pt;width:140pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:225pt;top:56562pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:225pt;top:56563pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:226pt;top:56562pt;width:149pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:226pt;top:56563pt;width:149pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:376pt;top:56562pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:376pt;top:56563pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:377pt;top:56562pt;width:149pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:377pt;top:56563pt;width:149pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:56577.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Continuous/fat added</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:287.55pt;top:56577.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">2 logs</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:441.70pt;top:56577.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">45%</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:56589.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Continuous/ no fat added</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:289.70pt;top:56589.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">1 log</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:441.75pt;top:56589.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">45%</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:56602.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Vacuum</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:287.50pt;top:56602.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">0 logs</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:444.50pt;top:56602.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">5%</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:84pt;top:56614pt;width:140pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:225pt;top:56614pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:225pt;top:56614pt;width:150pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:376pt;top:56614pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:376pt;top:56614pt;width:150pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:56634.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">3.1.3.2  Meat and Bone Meal Production</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:56665.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">U.S. regulations recognize three types of rendering facilities, designated here as</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:56684.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">nonprohibited, prohibited, and mixed.  A nonprohibited plant processes only porcine, equine or</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:56703.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">poultry (nonruminant species) and produces animal-based protein products that can be used</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:56722.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">legally in cattle feed.  A prohibited rendering plant may process ruminant or mink raw materials,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:56741.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">among others, and produces prohibited MBM that may not be used in cattle feed.  Mixed plants</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:56760.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">produce both nonprohibited and prohibited MBM.  These plants must use separate production</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:56778.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">lines or a common line with specified cleanout procedures.  The base case assumes that</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:56797.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">94.9999% of cattle remains are sent to prohibited rendering plants, 5% are sent to mixed plants,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:56817.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">and 0.0001% are sent (incorrectly) to non-prohibited plants.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:56854.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The base case assumes that cattle infectivity can reach bovines in several ways.  Material</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:56873.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">from a prohibited rendering plant could be mislabeled and used in the formulation of cattle feed.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:56892.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Mislabeling could also occur in a mixed plant.  A mixed plant could contaminate non-prohibited</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:56911.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">MBM by using incorrect source material or by failing to completely flush and clean shared</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:56930.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">processing machinery. A nonprohibited plant might contaminate their MBM by using prohibited</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:57024.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:57060.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 3</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.20pt;top:57768.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.90pt;top:57768.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">62 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:57096.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">source material although this is unlikely. Even if non-prohibited MBM is contaminated, the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:57115.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">potential for bovine exposure is reduced by the fact that much of this MBM goes to uses other</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:57134.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">than cattle feed.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:57172.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Table 3-4 describes the disposition of MBM infectivity based on the flow shown on</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:57191.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Figure 3-7.  Further documentation of these assumptions appears in the discussions</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:57210.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">accompanying the <probMisLabel>, <probContamination>, and <fracContaminate> tables in the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:57229.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">renderer file, and the discussion accompanying the <probDestination> table in the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:57247.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">MBMTransporter file (see Appendix 1).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:283.70pt;top:57286.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Table 3-4</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:175.35pt;top:57298.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The Flow of Infectivity Through the Rendering Process</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.15pt;top:57324.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Figure 3-7 Flow</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:104.05pt;top:57337.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Reference</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:108.15pt;top:57349.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Number</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:202.95pt;top:57324.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Label</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:229.95pt;top:57323.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">a</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:369.10pt;top:57324.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Description</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:84pt;top:57323pt;width:86pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:170pt;top:57323pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:265pt;top:57323pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:265pt;top:57323pt;width:261pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:84pt;top:57362pt;width:86pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:84pt;top:57363pt;width:86pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:170pt;top:57362pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:170pt;top:57363pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:172pt;top:57362pt;width:93pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:172pt;top:57363pt;width:93pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:265pt;top:57362pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:265pt;top:57363pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:266pt;top:57362pt;width:260pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:266pt;top:57363pt;width:260pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:125.05pt;top:57376.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">1</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:192.75pt;top:57376.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">To P MBM</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:271.10pt;top:57376.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Infectivity sent to rendering for prohibited MBM</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:125.05pt;top:57401.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">2</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:179.10pt;top:57401.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">SRM Elimination</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:271.00pt;top:57401.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Infectivity eliminated from potential use in animal feed</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:271.00pt;top:57414.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">or human food if specified risk material ban in place</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:125.05pt;top:57439.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">3 Render</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:192.15pt;top:57452.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Elimination</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:271.00pt;top:57439.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Infectivity removed through inactivation by rendering</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:125.05pt;top:57477.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">4 Contam. NP Infectivity from P MBM that contaminates NP MBM in</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:204.75pt;top:57490.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">MB</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:221.90pt;top:57490.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">M </FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:271.00pt;top:57490.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">mixed rendering facilities</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:125.05pt;top:57515.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">5</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:179.45pt;top:57515.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Mislabel P MBM</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:270.95pt;top:57515.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Infectivity in P MBM mislabeled as NP MBM</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:125.05pt;top:57540.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">6</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:181.00pt;top:57540.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Out after Render</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:271.15pt;top:57540.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Infectivity in rendered material not used for livestock</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:271.00pt;top:57553.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">feed</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:84pt;top:57566pt;width:86pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:170pt;top:57566pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:171pt;top:57566pt;width:94pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:265pt;top:57566pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:265pt;top:57566pt;width:261pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:57579.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><i><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.00pt">Notes:</FONT></FONT></i></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:57600.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><i><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.00pt">a.</FONT></FONT></i></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.00pt;top:57600.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><i><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.00pt">Entries in the “Label” column refer to the descriptors used in the output tables in the results</FONT></FONT></i></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:57610.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><i><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.00pt">Section (see Appendix 3A).</FONT></FONT></i></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:57639.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">3.1.3.3 Feed Production</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:57670.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">FDA feed ban regulations restrict use of prohibited MBM to feed manufacturers that</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:57689.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">produce only prohibited feed, or to manufactures that produce both prohibited and non-prohibited</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:57708.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">feed (mixed producers), so long as they adhere to procedures that minimize the risk of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:57727.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">contamination.  The base case assumes that at mixed facilities, prohibited feed could contaminate</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:57816.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:57852.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 3</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.20pt;top:58560.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.90pt;top:58560.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">63 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:57888.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">non-prohibited feed.  In addition, the base case assumes that prohibited feed can be mislabeled in</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:57907.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">facilities producing both prohibited and non-prohibited feed.  The documentation in Appendix 1</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:57926.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(see parameter group feedProducer) details these assumptions in further detail.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:57964.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">When recycled animal tissue (i.e., blood meal or MBM) is used as a supplement to</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:57983.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">animal feed, the material can be divided among feed portions consumed by many cattle.  The base</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:58002.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">case assumes that infectivity in the blood meal from a single animal is divided among 89 cattle</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:58021.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(see the documentation in Appendix 1 for the numCowsReceiving parameter in the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:58039.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">proteinInfector parameter group).  How widely infectivity in recycled protein is distributed is</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:58058.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">more complicated.  If the infectivity does not contaminate non-prohibited MBM or non-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:58077.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">prohibited feed, then it remains contained in a single “packet” that can be divided among 89</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:58096.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">cattle.  However, if contamination occurs during the rendering process, then a portion of the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:58115.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">infectivity is transferred to the affected non-prohibited MBM packet.  That non-prohibited packet</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:58134.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">has the potential to exposure an additional 89 cattle.  Finally, if contamination occurs during feed</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:58153.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">production, it is assumed that a portion of the infectivity is transferred to the affected non-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:58172.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">prohibited feed packet.  That non-prohibited feed packet likewise has the potential to expose an</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:58191.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">additional 89 cattle.  Table 3-5 describes the flow of cattle infectivity through the feed production</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:58210.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">process.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:58608.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:58644.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 3</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.20pt;top:59352.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.90pt;top:59352.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">64 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:283.70pt;top:58680.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Table 3-5</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:122.05pt;top:58693.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The Flow of Cattle Infectivity through the Feed Production and Use Processes</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.15pt;top:58718.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Figure 3-7 Flow</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:104.05pt;top:58731.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Reference</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:108.15pt;top:58744.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Number</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:202.95pt;top:58718.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Label</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:229.95pt;top:58717.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">a</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:369.10pt;top:58718.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Description</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:84pt;top:58717pt;width:86pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:170pt;top:58717pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:265pt;top:58717pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:265pt;top:58717pt;width:261pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:84pt;top:58756pt;width:86pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:84pt;top:58757pt;width:86pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:170pt;top:58756pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:170pt;top:58757pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:172pt;top:58756pt;width:93pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:172pt;top:58757pt;width:93pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:265pt;top:58756pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:265pt;top:58757pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:266pt;top:58756pt;width:260pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:266pt;top:58757pt;width:260pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:125.05pt;top:58770.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">7</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:195.50pt;top:58770.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">To P Feed</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:271.05pt;top:58770.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Infectivity in P MBM that goes to production of P</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:271.00pt;top:58783.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">livestock feed</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:125.05pt;top:58808.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">8</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:191.55pt;top:58808.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">To NP Feed</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:271.05pt;top:58808.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Infectivity in NP MBM reaching NP Feed</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:125.05pt;top:58834.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">9</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:180.30pt;top:58834.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Contam NP Feed</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:271.05pt;top:58834.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Infectivity from P Feed that contaminate NP Feed in</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:271.00pt;top:58846.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">mixed feed mills</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:122.30pt;top:58871.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">10</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:178.25pt;top:58871.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Mislabel NP Feed</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:270.95pt;top:58871.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Infectivity in P Feed mislabeled as NP Feed</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:122.30pt;top:58897.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">11</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:197.20pt;top:58897.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">To Blood</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:271.10pt;top:58897.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Infectivity reaching cattle feed through use of blood</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:271.00pt;top:58909.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">meal</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:122.30pt;top:58935.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">12</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:184.65pt;top:58935.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Out After Feed</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:207.75pt;top:58947.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Prod</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:271.00pt;top:58935.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Infectivity in livestock feed not used for cattle</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:84pt;top:58960pt;width:86pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:170pt;top:58960pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:171pt;top:58960pt;width:94pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:265pt;top:58960pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:265pt;top:58960pt;width:261pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:58973.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><i><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.00pt">Notes:</FONT></FONT></i></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:58994.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><i><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.00pt">a.</FONT></FONT></i></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.00pt;top:58994.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><i><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.00pt">Entries in the “Label” column refer to the descriptors used in the output tables in the results</FONT></FONT></i></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:59004.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><i><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.00pt">Section (see Appendix 3A).</FONT></FONT></i></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:59034.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">3.1.3.4  On Farm Feeding</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:59064.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The practice of administrating correctly labeled (</FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">i.e</FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">., with the label “DO NOT FEED TO</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:59083.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">RUMINANTS”) prohibited feed to cattle on the farm is referred to as “mis-feeding.”  The base</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:59102.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">case assumes that correctly labeled prohibited feed will be administered to cattle with a</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:59121.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">probability of 1.6%.  Documentation accompanying the feeder file (see Appendix 1) explains our</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:59140.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">derivation of this estimate.  Table 3-6. describes the flow of cattle infectivity on the farm.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:59400.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:59436.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 3</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.20pt;top:60144.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.90pt;top:60144.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">65 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:283.70pt;top:59472.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Table 3-6</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:205.35pt;top:59485.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The Flow of Cattle Infectivity on the Farm</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.15pt;top:59510.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Figure 3-7 Flow</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:104.05pt;top:59523.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Reference</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:108.15pt;top:59536.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Number</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:202.95pt;top:59510.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Label</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:229.95pt;top:59509.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">a</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:369.10pt;top:59510.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Description</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:84pt;top:59509pt;width:86pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:170pt;top:59509pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:265pt;top:59509pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:265pt;top:59509pt;width:261pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:84pt;top:59548pt;width:86pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:84pt;top:59549pt;width:86pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:170pt;top:59548pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:170pt;top:59549pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:172pt;top:59548pt;width:93pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:172pt;top:59549pt;width:93pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:265pt;top:59548pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:265pt;top:59549pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:266pt;top:59548pt;width:260pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:266pt;top:59549pt;width:260pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:122.80pt;top:59562.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">13</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:176.45pt;top:59562.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Misfed</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:271.00pt;top:59562.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Quantify of infectivity in materials fed to cattle in non-bovine</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:271.00pt;top:59574.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">livestock feed</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:122.80pt;top:59598.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">14</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:176.45pt;top:59598.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">To Cattle</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:270.95pt;top:59598.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Total infectivity reaching cattle through feed</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:84pt;top:59609pt;width:86pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:170pt;top:59609pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:171pt;top:59609pt;width:94pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:265pt;top:59609pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:265pt;top:59609pt;width:261pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:59623.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><i><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.00pt">Notes:</FONT></FONT></i></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:59643.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><i><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.00pt">a.</FONT></FONT></i></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.00pt;top:59643.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><i><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.00pt">Entries in the “Label” column refer to the descriptors used in the output tables in the results</FONT></FONT></i></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:59654.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><i><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.00pt">Section (see Appendix 3A).</FONT></FONT></i></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:59683.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">3.1.4</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:59683.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Potential Human Exposure</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:59713.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The base case assumes that humans can be exposed to BSE infectivity either by directly</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:59733.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">consuming infected cattle organs, such as brain, spinal cord, eyes, and distal ileum, or by</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:59751.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">consuming contaminated products, including meat or processed meat containing spinal cord or</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:59770.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">DRG, or organs containing CNS emboli, such as liver, heart, or kidneys.  Table 3-7 details the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:59789.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">assumed availability of these tissues.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:283.35pt;top:59828.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Table 3-7</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:241.35pt;top:59840.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Potential Human Exposure</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:95.55pt;top:59866.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Organs/tissues Description/Assumptions</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:84pt;top:59865pt;width:91pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:175pt;top:59865pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:175pt;top:59865pt;width:350pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:84pt;top:59878pt;width:91pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:84pt;top:59879pt;width:91pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:175pt;top:59878pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:175pt;top:59879pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:176pt;top:59878pt;width:349pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:176pt;top:59879pt;width:349pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:59893.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Brain</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:180.95pt;top:59893.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Brain is considered to be a variety meat and reaches the consumers labeled</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:181.00pt;top:59905.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">as such.  The base case assumes that 1% of all cattle brains are potentially</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:181.00pt;top:59918.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">available for direct human consumption.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:59943.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Spinal cord</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:181.00pt;top:59943.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Beef spinal cord is considered to be a variety meat and reaches consumers</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:181.00pt;top:59956.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">label as such.  The base case assumes that 1% of the spinal cord is</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:181.00pt;top:59968.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">potentially available for human consumption.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:59994.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Blood</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:181.05pt;top:59994.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The base case assumes that 5% of the cattle blood is potentially available for</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:181.00pt;top:60006.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">human consumption in meat food products, including sausages, blood</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:181.00pt;top:60019.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">pudding, </FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">etc</FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">., and that the infectivity in blood is limited to the potential</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:181.00pt;top:60032.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">contribution from brain and spinal cord emboli.  Sensitivity analysis</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:181.00pt;top:60044.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">investigates the possibility that BSE disease itself also contributes to the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:181.00pt;top:60057.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">infectivity in blood at a concentration that can be as high as the level of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:181.00pt;top:60070.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">detection.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:60192.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:60228.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 3</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.20pt;top:60936.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.90pt;top:60936.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">66 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:283.35pt;top:60264.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Table 3-7</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:241.35pt;top:60277.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Potential Human Exposure</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:95.55pt;top:60302.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Organs/tissues Description/Assumptions</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:84pt;top:60301pt;width:91pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:175pt;top:60301pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:175pt;top:60301pt;width:350pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:84pt;top:60315pt;width:91pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:84pt;top:60316pt;width:91pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:175pt;top:60315pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:175pt;top:60316pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:176pt;top:60315pt;width:349pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:176pt;top:60316pt;width:349pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:60329.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Distal Ileum</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:180.95pt;top:60329.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Distal ileum is considered to be a variety meat and reaches the consumers</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:181.00pt;top:60342.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">labeled as beef intestines.  The base case assumes that 1% of the distal</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:181.00pt;top:60354.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">ileums are potentially available for human consumption.  In the U.S., distal</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:181.00pt;top:60367.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">ileum does not reach consumers as natural sausage casings.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:60392.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Contaminated</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:60405.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Organ Meat</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:181.00pt;top:60392.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Brain and spinal cord are responsible for infectivity in organ meat when air-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:181.00pt;top:60405.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">injected pneumatic stunning is used (not reflected in the base case).  Liver,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:181.00pt;top:60418.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">heart, and kidney are sold as variety meat.  The base case assumes that 60%</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:181.00pt;top:60430.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">of the liver, 50% of the heart, and 25% of the kidneys are potentially</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:181.00pt;top:60443.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">available for human consumption.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:60468.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Eyes</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:181.00pt;top:60468.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Bovine eyes are considered a variety meat and reach consumers labeled as</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:181.00pt;top:60481.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">beef eyes.  The base case assumes that 1% of eyes are recovered and</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:181.00pt;top:60493.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">potentially available for human consumption.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:60519.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Contaminated</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:60531.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">muscle meat</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:181.00pt;top:60519.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The base case assumes that spinal cord can contaminate edible meat during</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:181.00pt;top:60531.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">the splitting process.  It is further assumed that other processes, such</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:181.00pt;top:60544.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">steaming or washing do not reduce this contamination.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:60569.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">AMR</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:181.10pt;top:60569.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Total infectivity in AMR product is the sum of the contributions from spinal</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:181.00pt;top:60582.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">cord and DRG contamination.  The amount of spinal cord contaminating</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:181.00pt;top:60594.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">AMR product depends on whether the spinal cord is removed, as required by</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:181.00pt;top:60607.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">FSIS regulation for plants using AMR, and on whether the carcass is mis-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:181.00pt;top:60620.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">split.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:60645.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Beef on bone</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:181.15pt;top:60645.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Total infectivity in beef on bone is the sum of the contributions from spinal</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:181.00pt;top:60658.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">cord contained in these cuts of meat and DRG attached to these bones.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:181.00pt;top:60670.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Spinal cord has the potential to reach consumers if it is not removed from the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:181.00pt;top:60683.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">spinal column and if it remains attached to the backbone as bone-in steak.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:181.00pt;top:60696.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The base case assumes that about 30% of the backbones from steers and</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:181.00pt;top:60708.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">heifers are sold bone-in and that because these cuts do not undergo AMR</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:181.00pt;top:60721.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">processing, they retain the spinal cord.  Although regulations do not require</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:181.00pt;top:60734.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">removal of the spinal cord from the backbones that do not undergo AMR</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:181.00pt;top:60746.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(FSIS Directive 7160.2, 1997), many slaughterhouses remove it anyway</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:181.00pt;top:60759.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(Robert Brewer, personal communication).  Note that even if the spinal cord</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:181.00pt;top:60772.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">or DRG on beef on bone reaches consumers, this material is not likely to be</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:181.00pt;top:60784.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">eaten.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:60810.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Trigeminal</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:60822.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Ganglia</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:181.00pt;top:60810.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The base case assumes that the trigeminal ganglia (TG) does not contaminate</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:181.00pt;top:60822.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">cheek meat because it is located at the base of the cranium. Sensitivity</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:181.00pt;top:60835.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">analysis investigates the impact of assuming that TG contaminates cheek</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:181.00pt;top:60847.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">meat 1% of the time and that when such contamination occurs, it amounts to</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:181.00pt;top:60860.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">1/1000 of the infectivity in TG.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:84pt;top:60873pt;width:91pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:175pt;top:60873pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:175pt;top:60873pt;width:350pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:60984.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:61020.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 3</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.20pt;top:61728.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.90pt;top:61728.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">67 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:61056.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 12.00pt">3.2</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:61056.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 12.00pt">Impact of Alternative Assumptions on Cattle Infected and Human BSE</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:61070.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 12.00pt">Exposure</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:61101.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">We evaluated the relative importance of 15 sources of uncertainty by determining how</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:61120.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">each individually influences model predictions for two cumulative outcomes over a 20-year</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:61139.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">period – the total number of cattle that become infected after the introduction of 10 infected</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:61158.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">animals at the beginning of the period, and the amount of BSE infectivity (quantified in terms of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:61177.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">the number of cattle oral ID s) in food produced for human consumption over that period.  In</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:213.00pt;top:61182.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">50</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:61196.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">particular, we ran the base case simulation 1,000 times and recorded the arithmetic mean values</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:61215.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">for each of these two outcomes.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:61253.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">We then altered each of 15 sets of assumptions, one at a time, setting all of the other</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:61272.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">assumptions to their base case values.  Each assumption was alternatively set equal to each of its</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:61291.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">bounding values.  The “best case” value refers generally to that bounding value for an assumption</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:61310.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">expected to result in the smallest predicted risk of BSE spreading, whereas the “worst case” value</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:61329.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">refers generally to that bounding value for an assumption expected to result in the largest</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:61348.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">predicted risk of BSE spreading. For each alternative value, we again ran the simulation 1,000</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:61367.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">times and recorded the mean values of the two outcomes described above.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:61405.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Alternative assumptions evaluated fall into the following categories:</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:61442.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Symbol" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">•</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:61443.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Section 3.2.1 – Maternal BSE transmission rate;</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:61467.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Symbol" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">•</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:61468.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Section 3.2.2 – Slaughter process assumptions, including the quantity of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:61481.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">infectivity in an animal with clinical BSE, the probability that AM inspection</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:61493.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">will detect an animal with clinical signs of BSE, the type of stunners used, the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:61506.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">probability that the spinal cord is removed;</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:61529.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Symbol" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">•</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:61530.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Section 3.2.3 – Rendering and feed production process assumptions, including</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:61543.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">the extent to which rendering reduces infectivity, the probability that prohibited</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:61556.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">MBM will contaminate non-prohibited MBM, the magnitude of the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:61568.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">contamination when this it occurs, the probability that mislabeling prohibited</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:61581.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">MBM will be mislabeled as non-prohibited, the probability that prohibited feed</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:61594.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">will contaminate non-prohibited feed, the magnitude of the contamination when</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:61606.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">it occurs, the probability that prohibited feed will be mislabeled as non-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:61619.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">prohibited, and the probability that correctly labeled prohibited feed will be</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:61632.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">incorrectly administered to bovines on the farm.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:61655.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Symbol" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">•</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:61656.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Section 3.2.4 – Food inspection, including in particular, the fraction of tissue in</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:61669.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">each tissue group recovered for human consumption;</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:61776.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:61812.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 3</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.20pt;top:62520.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.90pt;top:62520.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">68 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:61847.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Symbol" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">•</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:61848.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Section 3.2.5 – Farm practices, including the fraction of all animals that die on</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:61861.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">the farm that are sent to rendering.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:61884.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Symbol" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">•</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:61885.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Section 3.2.6 – The possibility that BSE-infected cattle carry infectivity in blood</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:61909.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Symbol" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">•</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:61910.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Section 3.2.7 – The possibility that humans are exposed to BSE infectivity in</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:61923.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">trigeminal ganglia</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:61965.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The parameter values used for each analysis are detailed in Appendix 2.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:62003.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">3.2.1</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.10pt;top:62003.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Maternal BSE transmission Assumptions</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:62034.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">We evaluated the assumption that the probability that a mother in the last one-sixth of its</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:62053.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">BSE incubation period will transmit disease to a calf it gives birth to with 10% probability (base</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:62072.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">case).  The best case value for this assumption was assumed to be 0% (</FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">i.e.</FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">, mother-to-calf</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:62091.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">transmission does not occur), and the worst case value for this assumption was assumed to be</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:62110.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">13%.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:62148.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">3.2.2</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.10pt;top:62148.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Slaughter Process Assumptions</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:62178.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">For assumptions related to the slaughter process that have been evaluated as part of the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:62197.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">uncertainty analysis, Table 3-8 details base case, best case, and worst case values.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:283.70pt;top:62235.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Table 3-8</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:114.65pt;top:62248.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Base Case, Best Case, and Worst Case Values for Slaughter Process Assumptions</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:196.35pt;top:62274.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Assumption Base Best</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:380.40pt;top:62287.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Cas</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:398.15pt;top:62287.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">e</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:434.65pt;top:62287.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Case</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:485.50pt;top:62274.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Worst</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:489.00pt;top:62287.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Case</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:84pt;top:62273pt;width:280pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:364pt;top:62273pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:364pt;top:62273pt;width:53pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:418pt;top:62273pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:418pt;top:62273pt;width:53pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:472pt;top:62273pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:473pt;top:62273pt;width:53pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:84pt;top:62299pt;width:280pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:84pt;top:62300pt;width:280pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:364pt;top:62299pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:364pt;top:62300pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:365pt;top:62299pt;width:52pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:365pt;top:62300pt;width:52pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:418pt;top:62299pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:418pt;top:62300pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:419pt;top:62299pt;width:52pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:419pt;top:62300pt;width:52pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:472pt;top:62299pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:472pt;top:62300pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:474pt;top:62299pt;width:52pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:474pt;top:62300pt;width:52pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:62313.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Cattle oral ID s in carcass of a full-blown BSE case</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:150.75pt;top:62318.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">50</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:376.35pt;top:62313.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">10,000</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:433.40pt;top:62313.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">5,000</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:485.05pt;top:62313.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">20,000</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:62338.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Antemortem inspection clinical BSE detection rates</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:381.50pt;top:62338.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">90%</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:435.75pt;top:62338.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">99%</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:490.15pt;top:62338.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">50%</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:62364.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Proportion of cattle stunned using an air-injection pneumatic</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:62376.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">stunner</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:384.35pt;top:62364.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">0% 0% 15%</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:62402.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Probability that the spinal cord is removed</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:62414.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Plants using AMR</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:381.60pt;top:62414.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">98%</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:431.60pt;top:62414.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">99.9%</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:490.15pt;top:62414.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">80%</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:62427.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Plants not using AMR</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:381.60pt;top:62427.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">50%</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:435.80pt;top:62427.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">99%</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:490.15pt;top:62427.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">10%</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:84pt;top:62439pt;width:280pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:364pt;top:62439pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:364pt;top:62439pt;width:53pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:418pt;top:62439pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:418pt;top:62439pt;width:53pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:472pt;top:62439pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:473pt;top:62439pt;width:53pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:62568.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:62604.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 3</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.20pt;top:63312.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.90pt;top:63312.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">69 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:62640.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">3.2.3</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:62640.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Render and Feed Production Process Assumptions</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:62670.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">For assumptions related to the rendering process, the feed production process, and to on-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:62689.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">farm feed practices that have been evaluated as part of the uncertainty analysis, Table 3-9 details</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:62708.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">base case, best case, and worst case values.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:283.70pt;top:62759.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Table 3-9</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:62772.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Base Case, Best Case, and Worst Case Values for Render Process, Feed Production Process,</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:207.85pt;top:62784.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">and On-Farm Feed Practice Assumptions</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:196.35pt;top:62810.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Assumption Base Best</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:380.40pt;top:62823.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Cas</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:398.15pt;top:62823.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">e</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:434.65pt;top:62823.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Case</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:485.50pt;top:62810.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Worst</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:489.00pt;top:62823.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Case</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:84pt;top:62809pt;width:280pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:364pt;top:62809pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:364pt;top:62809pt;width:53pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:418pt;top:62809pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:418pt;top:62809pt;width:53pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:472pt;top:62809pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:473pt;top:62809pt;width:53pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:84pt;top:62835pt;width:280pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:84pt;top:62836pt;width:280pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:364pt;top:62835pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:364pt;top:62836pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:365pt;top:62835pt;width:52pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:365pt;top:62836pt;width:52pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:418pt;top:62835pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:418pt;top:62836pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:419pt;top:62835pt;width:52pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:419pt;top:62836pt;width:52pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:472pt;top:62835pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:472pt;top:62836pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:474pt;top:62835pt;width:52pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:474pt;top:62836pt;width:52pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:62849.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Proportion of animals rendered using various technologies</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:62862.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Batch (3.1 logs reduction)</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:384.35pt;top:62862.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">5%</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:438.60pt;top:62862.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">5%</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:492.90pt;top:62862.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">5%</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:62875.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Continuous/fat added (2.0 log reductions)</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:381.60pt;top:62875.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">45%</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:435.80pt;top:62875.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">85%</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:490.20pt;top:62875.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">20%</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:62887.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Continuous/no fat added (1.0 log reduction)</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:381.60pt;top:62887.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">45%</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:438.60pt;top:62887.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">5%</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:490.20pt;top:62887.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">70%</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:62900.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Vacuum (no reduction)</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:384.35pt;top:62900.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">5%</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:438.55pt;top:62900.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">5%</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:492.90pt;top:62900.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">5%</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:62925.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Rendering – Contamination of non prohibited MBM by</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:62938.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">prohibited MBM in mixed facilities</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:62951.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Probability for a particular prohibited packet</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:381.55pt;top:62951.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">14%</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:438.60pt;top:62951.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">5%</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:490.20pt;top:62951.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">25%</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:62963.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Magnitude of contamination</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:251.90pt;top:62962.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">a</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:380.10pt;top:62963.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">0.1% 0.01% 1.0%</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:62988.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Rendering – Probability that prohibited MBM will be</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:63001.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">mislabeled as non-prohibited MBM when produced by</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:63014.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">either a mixed or prohibited rendering plant</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:384.35pt;top:62988.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">5% 2% 10%</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:63039.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Feed Production – Contamination of non prohibited MBM</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:63052.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">by prohibited MBM in mixed facilities</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:63064.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Probability for a particular prohibited packet</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:381.55pt;top:63064.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">16%</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:438.60pt;top:63064.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">5%</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:490.20pt;top:63064.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">16%</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:63077.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Magnitude of contamination</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:251.90pt;top:63076.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">a</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:380.10pt;top:63077.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">0.1% 0.01% 1.0%</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:63102.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Feed Production – Probability that prohibited feed will be</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:63115.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">mislabeled as non-prohibited feed when produced by either a</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:63128.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">mixed feed production plant</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:384.35pt;top:63102.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">5% 2% 33%</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:63153.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Probability that correctly labeled prohibited feed will be</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:63166.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">incorrectly administered to cattle</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:380.15pt;top:63153.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">1.6% 0.1%  15%</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:84pt;top:63178pt;width:280pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:364pt;top:63178pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:364pt;top:63178pt;width:53pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:418pt;top:63178pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:418pt;top:63178pt;width:53pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:472pt;top:63178pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:473pt;top:63178pt;width:53pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:63198.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><i><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.00pt">Notes:</FONT></FONT></i></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:63218.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><i><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.00pt">a.</FONT></FONT></i></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:63218.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><i><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.00pt">Refers to the proportion of the prohibited packet that ends up in the non-prohibited packet when</FONT></FONT></i></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:63229.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><i><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.00pt">contamination occurs.</FONT></FONT></i></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:63360.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:63396.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 3</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.20pt;top:64104.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.90pt;top:64104.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">70 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:63432.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">3.2.4</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:63432.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Proportion of Tissues Recovered for Human Consumption</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:63462.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Table 3-10 details the base case, best case, and worst case assumptions regarding the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:63481.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">proportion of tissue recovered for human consumption.  Note that none of these sets of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:63500.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">assumptions include a specified risk material (SRM) ban.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:280.95pt;top:63538.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Table 3-10</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:63551.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Base Case, Best Case, and Worst Case Values for the Proportion of Tissues Recovered from</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:230.55pt;top:63564.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Cattle for Human Consumption</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:209.55pt;top:63589.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Tissue Base Best</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:380.40pt;top:63602.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Cas</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:398.15pt;top:63602.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">e</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:434.65pt;top:63602.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Case</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:485.50pt;top:63589.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Worst</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:489.00pt;top:63602.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Case</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:84pt;top:63589pt;width:280pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:364pt;top:63589pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:364pt;top:63589pt;width:53pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:418pt;top:63589pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:418pt;top:63589pt;width:53pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:472pt;top:63589pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:473pt;top:63589pt;width:53pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:84pt;top:63614pt;width:280pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:84pt;top:63615pt;width:280pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:364pt;top:63614pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:364pt;top:63615pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:365pt;top:63614pt;width:52pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:365pt;top:63615pt;width:52pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:418pt;top:63614pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:418pt;top:63615pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:419pt;top:63614pt;width:52pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:419pt;top:63615pt;width:52pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:472pt;top:63614pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:472pt;top:63615pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:474pt;top:63614pt;width:52pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:474pt;top:63615pt;width:52pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:63629.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">AMR Meat</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:382.05pt;top:63629.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">0.98</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:436.30pt;top:63629.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">0.98</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:490.65pt;top:63629.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">0.98</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:63641.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Blood 0.05 0.025 0.3</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:63654.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Bone (in-bone cuts of meat)</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:381.95pt;top:63654.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">0.98</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:436.20pt;top:63654.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">0.98</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:490.60pt;top:63654.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">0.98</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:63667.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Brain 0.01 0.001 0.02</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:63679.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Dorsal root ganglia</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:388.80pt;top:63679.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">0</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:443.05pt;top:63679.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">0</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:497.45pt;top:63679.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">0</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:63692.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Eyes 0.001 0 0.002</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:63705.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Ileum</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:382.05pt;top:63705.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">0.01 0.001 0.02</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:63717.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Heart 0.5 0.3 0.6</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:63730.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Kidney</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:382.05pt;top:63730.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">0.25 0.15 0.35</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:63743.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Liver 0.6 0.4 0.7</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:63755.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Lung</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:388.90pt;top:63755.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">0 0 0</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:63768.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Muscle 0.98 0.98 0.98</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:63780.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Spinal Cord</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:382.05pt;top:63780.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">0.01</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:433.50pt;top:63780.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">0.001</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:490.65pt;top:63780.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">0.02</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:63793.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Trigeminal ganglia</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:388.80pt;top:63793.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">0</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:443.10pt;top:63793.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">0</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:497.45pt;top:63793.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">0</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:84pt;top:63806pt;width:280pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:364pt;top:63806pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:364pt;top:63806pt;width:53pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:418pt;top:63806pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:418pt;top:63806pt;width:53pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:472pt;top:63806pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:473pt;top:63806pt;width:53pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:63825.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">3.2.5</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:63825.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Proportion of Animals That Die on Farm that Are Rendered</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:63856.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The base case assumes that 85% of the animals that die on the farm (</FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">i.e.</FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">, before they are</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:63875.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">sent to slaughter) are rendered.  The best case assumes that this proportion is 60%, while the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:63894.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">worst case assumes that it is 99%.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:63932.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">3.2.6</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.15pt;top:63932.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The Possibility That BSE-Infected Cattle Carry Infectivity in Their Blood</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:63963.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The base case assumes that cattle infected with BSE do not carry infectivity in their blood</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:63981.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(although emboli formation may result in blood contamination).  We consider the possibility that</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:64000.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">0.016% of the infectivity in an animal with BSE is carried in the blood, a value that is consistent</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:64019.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">with the assumption that its concentration is at the level of detection in an animal with a full-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:64038.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">blown case of BSE (SSC, 2000a).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:64152.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:64188.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 3</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.20pt;top:64896.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.90pt;top:64896.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">71 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:64224.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">3.2.7</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.10pt;top:64224.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The Possibility that Humans are Exposed to BSE Infectivity in Trigeminal Ganglia</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:64254.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The base case assumes that the trigeminal ganglia harbor no infectivity prior to the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:64273.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">passage of 50% of the period between infection and the manifestation of clinical signs, but that</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:64292.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">after that time, they harbor 2.6% of the total infectivity.  It assumes further that no trigeminal</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:64311.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">ganglia tissue is recovered for human consumption.  The uncertainty analysis evaluates the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:64330.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">impact of assuming that 0.1% of the infectivity in the trigeminal ganglia (as much as 0.0026% of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:64349.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">the total infectivity) is recovered for human consumption with 1% probability, and that with 99%</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:64368.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">probability, none of this infectivity is recovered for human consumption.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:64406.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 12.00pt">3.3</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.00pt;top:64406.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 12.00pt">The Base Case:  Impact of Alternative Sources of Infectivity</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:64438.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">This section describes how we used the model to evaluate the impact of different sources</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:64457.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">of infectivity on the model’s predictions.  For each of the scenarios considered, we adopted the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:64476.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">base case assumptions.  Infectivity sources evaluated include: spontaneous development of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:64495.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">disease (Section 3.3.1), importation of infected cattle (Section 3.3.2), scrapie in sheep (Section</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:64514.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">3.3.3), chronic wasting disease (CWD) in deer/elk-derived protein supplements (Section 3.3.4),</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:64533.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">CWD from direct contact with infected mule deer, white tail deer and/or elk (Section 3.3.5),</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:64552.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">transmissible mink encephalopathy in mink (Section 3.3.6), a TSE in pigs (Section 3.3.7), and a</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:64571.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">TSE in chickens (Section 3.3.8).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:64609.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">3.3.1 Spontaneous BSE</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:64639.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Because there are no measurements of an incidence rate for spontaneous BSE in cattle,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:64658.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">we use the observed age-specific sporadic rate for CJD in humans as a proxy, adjusting the ages</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:64677.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">to reflect the difference between the natural lifespan for bovines (approximately 20 years)</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:64696.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(Nowak et al., 1983) and the much longer natural lifespan for humans (approximately 75 years).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:64715.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">For example, the CJD incidence rate for 75-year old humans is assumed to represent the BSE</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:64734.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">incidence rate for 20-year old bovines.  Making this adjustment and taking into account the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:64753.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">incubation period for BSE yields the age-specific rates that appear in Table 3-11.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:64791.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Developing age-specific rates is necessary because the often-quoted incidence rate for</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:64810.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">sporadic CJD in humans of one per million per year hides substantial variation across age groups.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:64829.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The disease is virtually never seen before age 30 and has a peak incidence between ages 60 and</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:64944.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:64980.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 3</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.20pt;top:65688.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.90pt;top:65688.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">72 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:65016.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">65 (Collinge and Palmer, 1997).  If this pattern (Figure 3-7) is applicable to sporadic BSE, then</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:65035.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">estimated rates in cattle must reflect the age structure of the disease.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:65073.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Finally, recall that the human CJD rates used to estimate the incidence rate for BSE</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:65092.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">represent the rate at which clinical cases appear in the population.  Therefore, the rates in Figure</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:209pt;top:65103pt;width:32pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:65111.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">3-7 cannot be used to estimate the rate at which new pre-clinical cases might develop.  Instead,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:65130.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">the case age-specific clinical incidence rates must be advanced by the duration of the period</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:65149.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">between infection and the manifestation of clinical signs.  The median incubation period for BSE</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:65167.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">is approximately four years (Section 3.1.1.5).  Table 3-11 lists the sporadic BSE rates inferred</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:65186.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">from the human sporadic CJD rates.  Note that the fourth column from the left (the spontaneous</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:65205.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">BSE new infection rate) is similar to the third column from the left (the spontaneous CJD new</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:65224.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">clinical case rate) but is offset by three rows, representing four years.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:65736.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:65772.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 3</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.20pt;top:66480.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.90pt;top:66480.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">73 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:280.95pt;top:65808.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Table 3-11</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:107.65pt;top:65821.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Human Age Categories, Equivalent Cattle Age Categories, and Age-Specific Human</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:256.45pt;top:65833.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Sporadic CJD Rates</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:352.10pt;top:65832.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">a</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:127.10pt;top:65859.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Human Age</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:133.70pt;top:65872.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Category</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:139.10pt;top:65884.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(years)</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:230.05pt;top:65859.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Equivalent</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:207.60pt;top:65872.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Cattle Age Category</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:239.55pt;top:65884.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(years)</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:318.85pt;top:65859.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Annual Clinical</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:309.00pt;top:65872.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">CJD Incidence Rate</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:326.40pt;top:65884.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(per million)</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:409.10pt;top:65859.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Annual Pre-Clinical</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:409.55pt;top:65872.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">BSE Incidence Rate</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:426.85pt;top:65884.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(per million)</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:104pt;top:65858pt;width:100pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:205pt;top:65858pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:205pt;top:65858pt;width:99pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:305pt;top:65858pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:306pt;top:65858pt;width:99pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:405pt;top:65858pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:406pt;top:65858pt;width:99pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:142.85pt;top:65911.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">0 to 4</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:234.95pt;top:65911.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">0.0 to 1.0</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:343.40pt;top:65911.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt"><0.01</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:452.00pt;top:65911.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">0</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:457.55pt;top:65909.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">b</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:104pt;top:65908pt;width:100pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:104pt;top:65910pt;width:100pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:205pt;top:65908pt;width: 2pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:205pt;top:65910pt;width: 2pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:207pt;top:65908pt;width:98pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:207pt;top:65910pt;width:98pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:305pt;top:65908pt;width: 2pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:305pt;top:65910pt;width: 2pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:307pt;top:65908pt;width:98pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:307pt;top:65910pt;width:98pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:405pt;top:65908pt;width: 2pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:405pt;top:65910pt;width: 2pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:408pt;top:65908pt;width:98pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:142.85pt;top:65923.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">5 to 9</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:234.95pt;top:65923.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">1.3 to 2.4</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:353.40pt;top:65923.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">0</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:442.40pt;top:65923.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">< 0.01</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:137.30pt;top:65936.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">10 to 14</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:234.95pt;top:65936.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">2.6 to 3.7</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:353.35pt;top:65936.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">0</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:443.75pt;top:65936.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt"><0.01</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:137.30pt;top:65948.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">15 to 19</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:234.95pt;top:65948.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">4.0 to 5.0</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:353.35pt;top:65948.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">0</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:446.85pt;top:65948.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">0.04</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:137.30pt;top:65961.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">20 to 24</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:234.95pt;top:65961.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">5.3 to 6.4</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:343.40pt;top:65961.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt"><0.01</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:446.85pt;top:65961.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">0.08</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:137.30pt;top:65974.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">25 to 29</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:234.95pt;top:65974.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">6.6 to 7.7</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:343.40pt;top:65974.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt"><0.01</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:446.85pt;top:65974.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">0.16</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:137.30pt;top:65986.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">30 to 34</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:232.20pt;top:65986.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">8.0 to 9.07</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:346.55pt;top:65986.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">0.04</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:446.85pt;top:65986.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">0.45</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:137.30pt;top:65999.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">35 to 39</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:232.20pt;top:65999.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">9.3 to 10.4</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:346.55pt;top:65999.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">0.08</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:446.85pt;top:65999.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">0.99</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:137.30pt;top:66012.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">40 to 44</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:230.75pt;top:66012.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">10.6 to11.7</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:346.55pt;top:66012.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">0.16</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:446.85pt;top:66012.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">2.14</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:137.30pt;top:66024.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">45 to 49</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:230.75pt;top:66024.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">12.0 to13.0</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:346.55pt;top:66024.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">0.45</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:446.85pt;top:66024.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">3.55</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:137.30pt;top:66037.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">50 to 54</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:230.75pt;top:66037.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">13.3 to14.4</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:346.55pt;top:66037.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">0.99</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:446.85pt;top:66037.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">5.03</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:137.30pt;top:66050.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">55 to 59</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:230.75pt;top:66050.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">14.6 to15.7</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:346.55pt;top:66050.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">2.14</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:446.85pt;top:66050.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">5.75</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:137.30pt;top:66062.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">60 to 64</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:230.75pt;top:66062.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">16.0 to17.0</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:346.55pt;top:66062.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">3.55</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:449.65pt;top:66062.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">5.6</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:137.30pt;top:66075.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">65 to 69</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:230.75pt;top:66075.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">17.3 to18.4</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:346.55pt;top:66075.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">5.03</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:446.85pt;top:66075.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">3.94</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:137.30pt;top:66088.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">70 to 74</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:230.75pt;top:66088.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">18.6 to19.7</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:346.55pt;top:66088.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">5.75</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:446.85pt;top:66088.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">2.42</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:137.30pt;top:66100.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">75 to 79</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:230.75pt;top:66100.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">20.0 to21.0</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:349.30pt;top:66100.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">5.6</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:445.30pt;top:66100.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">2.42</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:464.65pt;top:66099.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">c</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:137.30pt;top:66113.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">80 to 84</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:230.75pt;top:66113.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">21.3 to22.4</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:346.50pt;top:66113.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">3.94</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:445.30pt;top:66113.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">2.42</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:464.65pt;top:66111.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">c</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:145.45pt;top:66126.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">85 +</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:241.70pt;top:66126.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">22.6 +</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:346.55pt;top:66126.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">2.42</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:445.30pt;top:66126.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">2.42</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:464.65pt;top:66124.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">c</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:104pt;top:66138pt;width:100pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:205pt;top:66138pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:205pt;top:66138pt;width:99pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:305pt;top:66138pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:306pt;top:66138pt;width:99pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:405pt;top:66138pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:406pt;top:66138pt;width:99pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:66152.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><i><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.00pt">Notes:</FONT></FONT></i></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:66172.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><i><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.00pt">a.</FONT></FONT></i></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:66172.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><i><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.00pt">Adapted from (Holman et al., 1995, anonymous, 1996)</FONT></FONT></i></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:66193.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><i><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.00pt">b.</FONT></FONT></i></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:66193.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><i><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.00pt">We assume that the spontaneous CJD case observed in a young child was erroneous.</FONT></FONT></i></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:66214.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><i><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.00pt">c.</FONT></FONT></i></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:66214.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><i><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.00pt">We assume that the spontaneous rate for BSE remains unchanged at ages beyond what can be</FONT></FONT></i></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:66224.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><i><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.00pt">inferred from the corresponding spontaneous CJD data.</FONT></FONT></i></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:66254.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">3.3.2</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.10pt;top:66254.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Importation of Infected Cattle</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:66284.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Because APHIS has banned the import of cattle from countries in which the presence of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:66303.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">native BSE has been documented (see Section 2.3.2), the import of even a single infected animal</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:66322.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">is not likely. Given that even in the UK, the prevalence of BSE is relatively small, it is</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:66341.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">implausible that a large number of animals infected with BSE might be imported into the United</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:66360.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">States.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:66398.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Nonetheless, in order to evaluate the robustness of the U.S. cattle population against the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:66417.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">introduction of infected animals, we have simulated the introduction of 1, 5, 20, 50, 200, and 500</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:66528.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:66564.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 3</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.20pt;top:67272.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.90pt;top:67272.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">74 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:66600.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">animals into the U.S. We assume that the imported animals are 12-month old female dairy cattle</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:66619.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">that have just become infected.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:66657.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">3.3.3 Domestic Scrapie</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:66687.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The transmission of scrapie from sheep to cattle is one of the primary hypotheses for the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:66706.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">origin of BSE  (Horn et al., 2001).  Moreover, scrapie is present in the United States.  Although</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:66725.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">no North American strain of scrapie has been successfully transmitted to cattle exposed orally to</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:66744.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">the agent (Cutlip et al., 2001), we evaluate the impact of assuming that such transmission is</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:66763.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">possible.  In particular, if such transmission is possible, we estimate that the rendering of scrapie-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:66782.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">infected sheep could expose the U.S. cattle population to 1 cattle oral ID</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:411.00pt;top:66787.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">50</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:420.70pt;top:66782.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">in feed each month.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:66801.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The derivation of this estimate is based on the assumption that the number of cattle oral ID s</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:491.90pt;top:66806.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">50</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:66820.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">administered to cattle is equal to the product of 1) the number of scrapie-infected sheep rendered</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:66839.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">each year, 2) the number of sheep oral ID s per infected animal, 3) the inverse of the cattle-sheep</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:273.60pt;top:66844.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">50</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:66858.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">species barrier, and 4) the proportion of infectivity sent to rendering that survives rendering and is</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:66877.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">ultimately administered to cattle.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:66915.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Number of scrapie-infected sheep rendered</FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">:  We estimate the number of clinical sheep</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:66934.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">and the number of pre-clinical sheep separately.  A total of approximately 180,000 federally</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:66953.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">inspected mature sheep are slaughtered each year in the U.S. (USDA-FSIS, 1998).  Assuming that</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:66972.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">the prevalence of scrapie is the same in the U.S. as it is in the UK (11%) (Simmons et al., 2000),</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:66991.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">there are approximately 20,000 sheep with scrapie slaughtered each year.  Although sheep with</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:67010.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">clinical signs would ordinarily be detected at AM inspection and directed to incineration, we</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:67029.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">assume that they are rendered.  We assume that 1% of the infected sheep fall into this category,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:67048.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">suggesting that approximately 200 sheep with clinical signs are slaughtered each year.  Note that</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:67067.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">these estimates are likely to be conservative because the true prevalence of scrapie in the U.S. is</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:67086.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">probably less than it is in the UK.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:67124.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Number of sheep oral ID s per clinical scrapie case</FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">:  For sheep with clinical scrapie, we</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:236.55pt;top:67129.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><i><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">50</FONT></FONT></i></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:67143.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">assume that this quantity is 10,000, </FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">i.e.</FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">, the same as the number of cattle oral ID s per clinical</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:444.25pt;top:67148.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">50</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:67162.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">case of BSE.  In order to estimate the amount of infectivity in sheep that are not yet showing</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:67181.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">clinical signs of disease, we assume that the infectivity load for scrapie follows the same temporal</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:67200.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">pattern as BSE does in cattle (see Figure 3-6).  As a result, we estimate the average number of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:67218.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">ID s in a sheep to equal the time-averaged ID</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:101.45pt;top:67224.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">50</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:293.90pt;top:67224.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">50</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:303.60pt;top:67218.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">burden in cattle over the period prior to the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:67320.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:67356.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 3</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.20pt;top:68064.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.90pt;top:68064.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">75 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:67392.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">development of clinical signs, or approximately 600 ID s.  Note that this estimate is likely to</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:334.55pt;top:67397.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">50</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:67411.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">overstate the true average culling and slaughter ensure that the number of older sheep (and hence</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:67430.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">the number of sheep that have been infected with scrapie for a long period of time) is less than the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:67449.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">number of sheep that are younger (and hence are likely to have been infected for a shorter period</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:67468.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">of time).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:67506.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The cattle-sheep species barrier</FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">:  We assume that the species barrier between sheep and</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:67525.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">cattle is 1,000, </FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">i.e.</FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">, 1 sheep oral ID</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:244.20pt;top:67530.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">50</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:253.95pt;top:67525.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">is equivalent to 0.001 cattle oral ID s.  This assumption is</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:410.30pt;top:67530.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">50</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:67543.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">based on an evaluation of the relative transmissibilty of BSE from cattle to mice (Bradley, 1999)</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:67562.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">and on results from </FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">in vitro </FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">conversion studies (Raymond et al., 1997).  The true species barrier is</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:67581.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">unknown and may be substantially higher.  For example, no North American strain of scrapie has</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:67600.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">been successfully transmitted to cattle exposed orally to the agent (Cutlip et al., 2001).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:67638.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Proportion of infectivity surviving rendering and administered to cattle</FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">:  We used the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:67657.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">simulation model, along with the base case assumptions to estimate the proportion of infectivity</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:67676.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">in prohibited material that is ultimately administered to cattle.  In particular, we repeatedly</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:67695.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">simulated the rendering of a bovine with 1 ID</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:291.75pt;top:67700.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">50</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:301.45pt;top:67695.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">using the base case assumptions.  Based on 1,000</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:67714.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">runs of this simulation, we estimate that under the conditions described the base case, the average</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:67734.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">number of ID s administered to cattle amounted to 8</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:149.80pt;top:67739.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">50</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:327.85pt;top:67733.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Symbol" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">×</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:336.70pt;top:67734.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">10 , </FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">i.e.</FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">, a little less than 0.1% of the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:347.75pt;top:67733.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">-4</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:67753.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">infectivity in prohibited material survives rendering and is ultimately administered to cattle.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:67791.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Total infectivity to cattle</FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">:  For sheep with clinical scrapie, the product of the four</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:67810.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">quantities just described is approximately 2 cattle oral ID s per year.  For sheep not yet showing</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:343.45pt;top:67815.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">50</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:67829.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">clinical signs of disease, the product is approximately 10 cattle oral ID s per year.  The total</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:402.25pt;top:67834.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">50</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:67848.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">amounts to 12 cattle oral ID s annually, or 1 cattle oral ID</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:213.60pt;top:67853.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">50</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:349.80pt;top:67853.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">50</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:359.50pt;top:67848.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">per month.  Note that this estimate</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:67867.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">probably overstates actual cattle exposure for two reasons.  First, it is likely that the true species</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:67886.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">barrier is greater than the value of 1,000 used here.  Second, the prevalence of scrapie in the U.S.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:67905.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">is probably less than the UK prevalence rates adopted here.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:67943.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">3.3.4</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:67943.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Chronic Wasting Disease:  Oral Exposure</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:67974.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The FDA feed ban prohibits the use of rendered material derived from cervids in the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:67993.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">production of feed to be administered to cattle.  However, because the ban is not completely</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:68012.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">effective, cattle may be exposed to cervid-derived protein and hence to CWD. This section</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:68112.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:68148.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 3</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.20pt;top:68856.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.90pt;top:68856.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">76 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:68184.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">describes our estimate of an upper bound on this exposure.  Annual cattle exposure to CWD</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:68203.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">attributable to consumption of cervid-derived protein is the product of the 1) number of diseased</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:68222.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">animals harvested, 2) the number of cervid ID s per slaughtered case, 3) the fraction of animals</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:293.40pt;top:68227.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">50</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:68241.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">rendered, 4) the inverse of the species barrier, and 5) the proportion of infectivity surviving</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:68260.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">rendering and administered to cattle.  As described below, we estimate that present-day exposures</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:68279.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">to CWD among the U.S. cattle population could be as high as 2 cattle oral ID s per year,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:431.50pt;top:68284.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">50</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:68298.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">although the true value is likely to be substantially lower and could be zero.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:68335.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Number of diseased animals harvested</FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">:  Table 3-12 details the disease prevalence rate,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:68354.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">population size, and annual harvest rate for the three species suspected of harboring CWD.  In</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:68373.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">one respect, these estimates are likely to overstate the true values because they assume the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:68392.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">prevalence rate for the endemic area applies to the entire population.  On the other hand, because</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:68411.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">monitoring of CWD is limited to post mortem evaluation of brain tissue, it is possible that</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:68430.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">surveillance fails to detect animals with less advanced disease.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:280.95pt;top:68469.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Table 3-12</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:178.60pt;top:68481.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Annual Number of CWD-Infected Animals Harvested</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:124.10pt;top:68507.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Species Disease</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:208.60pt;top:68520.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Prevalence</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:260.30pt;top:68518.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">a</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:284.65pt;top:68507.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Population</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:299.20pt;top:68520.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Size</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:318.15pt;top:68518.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">b</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:367.35pt;top:68507.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Annual</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:366.00pt;top:68520.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Harvest</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:371.75pt;top:68532.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Rate</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:393.85pt;top:68531.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">b</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:434.65pt;top:68507.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Infected Animals</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:441.50pt;top:68520.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Harvested per</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:461.90pt;top:68532.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Year</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:485.30pt;top:68531.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">c</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:84pt;top:68506pt;width:113pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:197pt;top:68506pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:198pt;top:68506pt;width:76pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:274pt;top:68506pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:274pt;top:68506pt;width:71pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:346pt;top:68506pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:346pt;top:68506pt;width:76pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:422pt;top:68506pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:423pt;top:68506pt;width:104pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:68546.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Mule deer</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:224.65pt;top:68546.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">4.9%</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:294.75pt;top:68547.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">2</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:303.00pt;top:68546.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Symbol" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">×</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:311.90pt;top:68547.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">10</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:322.95pt;top:68546.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">6</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:367.35pt;top:68546.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">20-25% 24,500</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:84pt;top:68544pt;width:113pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:84pt;top:68545pt;width:113pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:197pt;top:68544pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:197pt;top:68545pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:199pt;top:68544pt;width:75pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:199pt;top:68545pt;width:75pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:274pt;top:68544pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:274pt;top:68545pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:275pt;top:68544pt;width:70pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:346pt;top:68544pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:346pt;top:68545pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:347pt;top:68544pt;width:75pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:347pt;top:68545pt;width:75pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:422pt;top:68544pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:422pt;top:68545pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:424pt;top:68544pt;width:103pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:424pt;top:68545pt;width:103pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:68560.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">White tail deer</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:224.60pt;top:68560.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">2.1%</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:290.55pt;top:68560.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">3.2</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:307.10pt;top:68559.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Symbol" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">×</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:315.95pt;top:68560.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">10</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:327.00pt;top:68559.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">7</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:374.65pt;top:68560.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">25% 168,000</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:68573.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Rocky Mountain Elk</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:224.65pt;top:68573.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">0.5%</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:290.55pt;top:68574.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">1.0</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:307.10pt;top:68573.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Symbol" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">×</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:315.95pt;top:68574.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">10</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:327.00pt;top:68572.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">6</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:367.35pt;top:68573.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">15-20% 1,000</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:68587.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Total</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:457.20pt;top:68587.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">194,000</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:84pt;top:68599pt;width:113pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:197pt;top:68599pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:198pt;top:68599pt;width:76pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:274pt;top:68599pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:274pt;top:68599pt;width:71pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:346pt;top:68599pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:346pt;top:68599pt;width:76pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:422pt;top:68599pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:423pt;top:68599pt;width:104pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:68612.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><i><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.00pt">Notes:</FONT></FONT></i></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:68633.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><i><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.00pt">a.</FONT></FONT></i></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.00pt;top:68633.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><i><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.00pt">Refers to the estimated prevalence of CWD among animals harvested from the CWD endemic areas</FONT></FONT></i></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:68643.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.00pt">of north central Colorado and southeastern Wyoming </FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.00pt">(Miller et al., 2000)</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.00pt;top:68664.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><i><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.00pt">b. Source (Rocky Mountain Elk Foundation, 1997); Lloyd Floyd, personal communication; Quality</FONT></FONT></i></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:68674.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><i><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.00pt">Deer Management Association's</FONT></FONT></i></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:68695.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><i><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.00pt">c.</FONT></FONT></i></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.05pt;top:68695.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><i><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.00pt">Computed using the upper bound annual harvest rate in the fourth column from the left.</FONT></FONT></i></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:68724.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Number of cervid ID s per case</FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">:  Because the prevalence rate has been estimated on the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:217.80pt;top:68730.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><i><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">50</FONT></FONT></i></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:68743.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">basis of post mortem evaluation of brain tissue, they may reflect only those animals that have</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:68762.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">advanced disease.  We assume that there are 10,000 cervid oral ID s per case of disease.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:383.65pt;top:68768.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">50</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:68904.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:68940.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 3</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.20pt;top:69648.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.90pt;top:69648.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">77 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:68976.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Fraction of animals rendered</FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">:  Only a small portion of cervids harvested for human</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:68995.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">consumption are likely to be rendered at all.  Those that are rendered are most often processed by</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:69014.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">an independent facility that handles only prohibited rendered material (Don Franco, personal</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:69033.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">communication).  We assume that 10% of the harvested cervids are rendered.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:69071.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The species barrier</FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">:  As noted in Section 2.3.4, the species barrier for the transmission of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:69090.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">CWD from cervids to cattle appears to be between 10 and 10 .  We conservatively assume that</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:327.35pt;top:69088.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">5</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:363.35pt;top:69088.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">12</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:69109.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">the species barrier value is 10 .</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:221.40pt;top:69107.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">5</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:69146.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Proportion of infectivity surviving rendering and administered to cattle</FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">:  As described in</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:69165.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Section 3.3.2, under present-day conditions (</FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">i.e.</FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">, with the adoption of the feed ban), total cattle</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:69184.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">population exposure to infectivity is approximately 0.1% as great as the amount of infectivity in</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:69203.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">animals sent to rendering.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:69241.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Total Cattle Population Exposure</FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">:  Under present-day conditions, total exposure to CWD</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:69260.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">is estimated to amount to no more than 2 cattle oral ID s per year, or approximately 0.2 cattle</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:331.45pt;top:69265.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">50</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:69279.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">oral ID s per month.  As noted above, this estimates reflects several assumptions that are</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:121.45pt;top:69284.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">50</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:69298.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">potentially very conservative.  The true level of exposure is perhaps much lower.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:69336.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">3.3.5</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.10pt;top:69336.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Chronic Wasting Disease:  Lateral Transmission</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:69367.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Because this source is insignificant (see Section 2.3.5), we do not quantitatively model its</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:69386.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">impact on the prevalence of BSE in the U.S. cattle population or its contribution to contamination</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:69405.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">of the U.S. food supply.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:69443.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">3.3.6 Mink</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:69473.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">As is the case with cervids, FDA regulations prohibit the administration to cattle of feed</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:69492.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">fortified with proteins derived from mink.  However, it is possible that this ban fails to completely</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:69511.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">halt such exposures.  This section describes our development of an upper bound estimate on this</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:69530.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">exposure, which we estimate to be on the order of 1 cattle oral ID</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:379.95pt;top:69535.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">50</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:389.65pt;top:69530.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">annually.  The true value is</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:69549.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">likely to be substantially lower, and could be zero.  Our methodology is similar to that used for</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:69568.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">CWD. Annual cattle exposure to TME attributable to consumption of mink-derived protein is the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:69587.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">product of the 1) number of diseased animals harvested, 2) the number of mink ID s per animal</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:453.85pt;top:69592.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">50</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:69696.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:69732.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 3</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.20pt;top:70440.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.90pt;top:70440.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">78 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:69768.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">slaughtered, 3) the fraction of animals rendered, 4) the inverse of the species barrier, and 5) the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:69787.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">proportion of infectivity surviving rendering and administered to cattle.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:69825.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Number of diseased animals harvested</FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">:  A total of 2.6 million mink are harvested in the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:69844.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">U.S. annually (USDA, 2001).  The prevalence of disease is unknown.  We assume that the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:69863.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">prevalence of clinical and pre-clinical disease are both similar to the corresponding rates for</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:69882.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">scrapie, or approximately 0.1% and 10%, respectively. Hence, we estimate that there are 2,600</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:69901.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">clinical animals and 260,000 pre-clinical animals slaughtered each year.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:69938.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Number of mink ID s per case</FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">:  As we estimated for scrapie, we assume that pre-clinical</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:211.60pt;top:69944.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><i><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">50</FONT></FONT></i></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:69957.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">animals harbor an average of 600 mink ID s, whereas clinical animals harbor 10,000 mink ID s.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:276.85pt;top:69963.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">50</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:506.65pt;top:69963.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">50</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:69995.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Fraction of animals rendered</FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">:  We estimate that 60% of slaughtered mink are rendered</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:70014.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(based on information provided by Teresa Platt, Executive Director-Fur Commission USA).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:70052.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The species barrier</FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">:  Experimental transmission of TME from the Stetsonville outbreak</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:70071.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">to cattle via i.c. inoculation resulted in animals developing a fatal spongiform encephalopathy</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:70090.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(Marsh et al., 1991), although it appeared to be distinct from BSE.  As with CWD, we assume</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:70109.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">that the species barrier for TME transmitted to cattle is 10 .</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:346.95pt;top:70108.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">5</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:70147.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Proportion of infectivity surviving rendering and administered to cattle</FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">:  As in the case of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:70166.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">CWD, we assume that this value is now 0.1%.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:70204.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Total infectivity reaching cattle</FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">:  Total infectivity reaching cattle from clinical TME</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:70223.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">cases amounts to 0.2 cattle oral ID s annually, while the corresponding value for pre-clinical</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:242.55pt;top:70228.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">50</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:70242.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">animals is 0.9 cattle oral ID s.  The total amounts to 1 cattle oral ID</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:212.20pt;top:70247.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">50</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:392.40pt;top:70247.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">50</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:402.10pt;top:70242.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">per year, or approximately</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:70261.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">0.1 cattle oral ID s per month.  Because this source exposes cattle to substantially less infectivity</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:164.90pt;top:70266.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">50</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:70280.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">than does scrapie (as modeled in Section 3.3.3), we do not quantitatively model its impact on the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:70299.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">prevalence of BSE in the U.S. cattle population or its contribution to contamination of the U.S.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:70318.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">food supply.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:70488.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:70524.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 3</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.20pt;top:71232.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.90pt;top:71232.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">79 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:70560.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">3.3.7 Pigs</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:70590.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Because this source is insignificant (see Section 2.3.7), we do not quantitatively model its</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:70609.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">impact on the prevalence of BSE in the U.S. cattle population or its contribution to contamination</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:70628.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">of the U.S. food supply.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:70666.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">3.3.8 Poultry</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:70697.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Because this source is insignificant (see Section 2.3.8), we do not quantitatively model its</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:70716.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">impact on the prevalence of BSE in the U.S. cattle population or its contribution to contamination</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:70735.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">of the U.S. food supply.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:70773.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">3.3.9 Recycled Waste</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:70803.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Because this source is insignificant (see Section 2.3.9), we do not quantitatively model its</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:70822.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">impact on the prevalence of BSE in the U.S. cattle population or its contribution to contamination</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:70841.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">of the U.S. food supply.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:70880.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 12.00pt">3.4</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:70880.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 12.00pt">Alternative Scenarios Evaluated Using the Simulation Model</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:70911.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The alternative scenarios evaluated using the simulation model fall into three categories.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:70930.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">First, we evaluated the plausibility of the model’s output by comparing the predicted number of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:70949.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">clinical BSE cases to the observed number of clinical BSE cases between 1985 and 2000 in</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:70968.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Switzerland (Section 3.4.1).  Second, we evaluated the potential for two sources of infectivity</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:70987.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(spontaneous disease and cattle imported from the UK during the 1980s) to have introduced BSE</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:71006.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">into the U.S. prior to the implementation of regulations meant to limit its spread (Sections 3.4.2</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:71025.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">and 3.4.3).  Finally, we evaluated the extent to which additional risk management action</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:71044.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(implementation of a UK-style specified risk material ban, or a ban on rendering cattle that die on</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:71063.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">the farm) reduces the potential spread of BSE and potential human exposure (Sections 3.4.4 and</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:71082.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">3.4.5).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:71120.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">3.4.1 Switzerland</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:71150.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Because there has never been a controlled experiment to quantify the impact of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:71169.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">introducing BSE into a country, a true validation of the simulation model described in this report</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:71188.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">is not possible.  Instead, this section describes an evaluation of the model’s plausibility that</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:71280.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:71316.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 3</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.20pt;top:72024.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.90pt;top:72024.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">80 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:71352.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">involves modeling the small BSE outbreak observed in Switzerland following the introduction of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:71371.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">BSE infectivity from the UK.  Working with experts in Switzerland, we identified appropriate</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:71390.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">parameter values in order to characterize the herd population dynamics, conditions, practices, and</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:71409.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">procedures in that country.  The Switzerland scenario reflects changing conditions over time.  In</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:71428.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">addition to specifying conditions at the beginning of the simulation (1986), the scenario also</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:71447.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">reflects changes to these conditions in 1990, 1993, 1996, 1998, and 1999.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:71485.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">1986:  </FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The Switzerland scenario begins in 1986, the year we assume that 67 newly</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:71503.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">infected female dairy cattle were incubating BSE (Doherr et al., 1999).  Thirty of these cattle are</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:71522.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">assumed to be 25 months of age and the remaining 37 are assumed to be 26 months of age.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:71560.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">At the same time, the Switzerland scenario assumes that feed containing 4000 cattle oral</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:71579.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">ID s was imported.  The assumption is based on information that three tons of MBM were</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:101.45pt;top:71584.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">50</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:71598.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">imported from the UK between 1985 and 1989.  We assume that during that period, MBM from</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:71617.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Britain was contaminated with BSE.  In particular, we assume that the three tons of MBM</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:71636.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">imported from Britain represented rendered protein from three cattle, each of which harbored</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:71655.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">between 800 and 2,000 cattle oral ID s.  We assume that the 3 tons of MBM were used to</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:253.60pt;top:71660.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">50</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:71674.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">supplement feed at a concentration of 5% and was therefore distributed as part of a total of 60</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:71693.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">tons of feed.  Assuming that cattle consume 30 pounds of feed a day (3% of their weight) and that</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:71712.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">farms purchase feed in lots sufficient to last them 30 days, the 60 tons (120,000 pounds) of feed</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:71732.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">would be divided among 133 cattle (</FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">i.e.</FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">, 120,000 pounds</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:344.30pt;top:71731.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Symbol" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">÷</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:353.15pt;top:71732.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(30 pounds/cow-day</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:446.15pt;top:71731.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Symbol" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">×</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:455.05pt;top:71732.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">30 days)).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:71770.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Differences between the base case and the Switzerland scenario in 1986 include the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:71789.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">following.  First, the misfeeding rate is assumed to be 15%, considerably higher than the 1.6%</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:71808.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">misfeeding rate in the base case.  The assumption of a substantially higher misfeeding rate is</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:71827.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">based on the observation that a substantial proportion of the farms in Switzerland raise both</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:71846.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">livestock that can consume prohibited feed and livestock that are restricted to non-prohibited</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:71865.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">feed.  For example, nearly 67% of the poultry in Switzerland are raised on farms that also raise</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:71884.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">cattle (Switzerland farm Structure census: farms with cattle and chicken, 1999).  For hogs, the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:71903.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">corresponding proportion is 59% (Switzerland farm Structure census: farms with cattle and pigs,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:71922.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">1999).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:71960.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Second, the Switzerland scenario assumes that most rendering systems in use in 1986 in</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:71979.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Switzerland used batch processing technology, which normally reduces infectivity by a factor of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:72072.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:72108.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 3</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.20pt;top:72816.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.90pt;top:72816.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">81 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:72144.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">1,000 (</FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">i.e.</FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">, 3 logs).  However, because use in Switzerland typically did not conform the 133 C/20</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:495.35pt;top:72142.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">o</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:72163.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">minutes/3 bars of pressure minimum treatment standard, we assume that the majority of rendering</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:72182.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">facilities achieved only 2 logs of infectivity inactivation.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:72220.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Finally, the Switzerland scenario reflects the absence of a feed ban in 1986.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:72258.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">1990:  </FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">In 1990, Switzerland enacted a feed ban.  However, the structure of the MBM and</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:72277.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">feed production industries provided opportunities for failures to this ban.  In particular, a</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:72295.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">substantial portion of the prohibited feed was produced by mixed feed producers.  We assume</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:72314.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">that these producers mislabeled or failed to properly label 10% of their prohibited feed and that</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:72333.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">contamination occurred during production of 20% of the prohibited feed.  We also note that</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:72352.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">increased efforts to keep specified risk materials (SRM) out of the human supply increased the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:72371.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">flow of this material into MBM and ultimately into animal feed.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:72409.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">1993</FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">:  By 1993, rendering practices improved.  We assume that at that time, all renderers</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:72428.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">complied with the 133 C/20 minutes/3 bars of pressure standard, and hence that all rendering</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:189.15pt;top:72427.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">o</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:72447.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">achieved a 3.1 logs of infectivity reduction (a factor of approximately 1,260).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:72485.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">1996</FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">:  Further changes came around 1996, when Switzerland enacted a ban on the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:72504.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">rendering or use as human food of SRM, including brain, spinal cord, dorsal root ganglia, gut,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:72523.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">lung, eyes, and AMR meat.  Changes in farming practices also helped reduce the spread of BSE</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:72542.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">infectivity.  These changes included reduced misfeeding of prohibited rations to cattle (we</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:72561.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">assume this rate was 0.1%) and the elimination of rendering cattle that had died on the farm.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:72599.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">1998</FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">:  In 1998, slaughter facility practices further improved with an increased effort to</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:72618.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">remove spinal cords after splitting. We assume the spinal cord was removed 99.9% of the time.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:72656.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">1999</FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">:  Finally, in the 1999-2000 time period, Switzerland outlawed the practice of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:72675.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">feeding MBM to any farm animal.  This move essentially eliminated the possibility of misfeeding</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:167pt;top:72686pt;width:15pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:72694.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">animals.  In addition, Switzerland prohibited the feeding of blood meal to cattle .</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:72864.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:72900.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 3</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.20pt;top:73608.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.90pt;top:73608.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">82 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:72936.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">3.4.2</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.10pt;top:72936.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Spontaneous Disease as a Potential Source of Infectivity in the U.S.</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:72966.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">This scenario is the same as the spontaneous disease scenario described in Section 2.3.1</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:72985.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">except that it also assumes the absence of the 1997 feed ban.  We assume that prior to the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:73004.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">adoption of the 1997 feed ban, 65% of the MBM produced by renderers that processed cattle</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:73023.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">went to animal feed manufacturers, while the remaining 35% was either exported or otherwise</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:73042.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">allocated to some other use that posed no risk of exposing cattle to BSE infectivity.  We further</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:73061.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">assume that 98% of the feed produced by feed manufacturers was sent to farms and that only 2%</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:73080.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">was allocated to uses that posed no exposure risk to cattle.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:73118.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">3.4.3</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:73118.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Cattle Imported into the U.S. from the UK During the 1980s</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:73149.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">This scenario evaluates the potential consequences of U.S. imports of cattle from the UK</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:73168.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">during the 1980’s prior to the imposition of an import ban in 1989.  Of particular concern has</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:73187.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">been the import 334 cattle from the UK and 162 cattle from the Republic of Ireland during that</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:73206.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">period because those animals may have been infected with BSE. The vast majority of the cattle</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:73225.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">imported from Ireland were regarded as a negligible challenge to the US system because they</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:73244.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">were imported before 1985 (SSC, 2000c).  Of the animals imported from UK, USDA has</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:73263.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">determined that 161 were disposed of in a manner that eliminates the possibility that they could</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:73281.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">have either contaminated the human food supply or lead to the exposure of additional animals in</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:73301.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">the U.S. to BSE.  However, USDA has not been able to conclusively determine that the other 173</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:73320.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">animals posed no risk to either human food or animal feed.  This scenario characterizes the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:73338.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">potential impact these cattle may have had on the presence of BSE in the U.S.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:73376.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">For each of the 173 animals that may have posed an exposure risk, USDA has determined</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:73395.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">from Department records and from interviews year of birth, animal type (beef or dairy), gender,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:73414.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">age when exported to the U.S., and age when last seen.  Using this information, we have</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:73433.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">computed the probability that the animal was infected and the distribution of values for the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:73452.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">animal’s total infectivity load.  Probabilistically summing these distributions over all 173 cattle</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:73471.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">yielded a distribution of ID s imported into the U.S. For this scenario, we assume that all</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:210.40pt;top:73476.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">50</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:73490.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">infectivity was imported in 1980.  Section1.1 in Appendix 2 describes our methodology for</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:73509.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">developing the imported infectivity distribution.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:73547.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">To determine the impact of these imports, we simulated the introduction of various</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:73566.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">amounts of infectivity in cattle feed.  Amounts simulated were 0.1, 1.0, 5.0, 10.0, and 50.0 cattle</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:73656.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:73692.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 3</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.20pt;top:74400.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.90pt;top:74400.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">83 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:73728.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">oral ID s.  The simulation started in the year 1980 and ran through the year 2010.  The following</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:121.45pt;top:73733.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">50</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:73747.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">assumptions were made for each time period over that 30-year duration.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:73785.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">1980</FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">:  At the beginning of the simulation, there is no feed ban in place.  In addition, we</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:73804.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">assume that for cattle between the ages of 12 and 23 months, mis-splits occur with 5%</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:73823.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">probability, AMR is used 20% of the time, and spinal cords are removed with 50% probability</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:73842.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(regardless of AMR usage).  The same assumptions apply to animals 24 months of age and older,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:73861.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">except for the mis-split probability, which is assumed to be 8%.  The fraction of spinal cord and</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:73879.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">DRG that contaminate AMR meat also differs somewhat from the baseline assumptions (see</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:73898.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Appendix 2 for details).  Finally, we assume that air-injected pneumatic stunning is used for 15%</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:73917.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">of all animals.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:73955.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">1993</FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">:  We assume that in 1993, the proportion of animals processed in plants using AMR</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:73974.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">increases from 20% to 40%.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:74012.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">1997</FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">:  The simulation reflects implementation of the feed ban in 1997.  However, we</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:74031.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">assume that at this time, the mislabeling rate for prohibited and mixed renderers is 10% (instead</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:74050.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">of the base case value of 5%).  We also assume that the contamination rate for mixed renderers is</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:74069.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">28% (instead of the base case value of 14%).  For prohibited and mixed feed producers, we</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:74088.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">assume that the mislabeling rate is 10% (instead of the base case value of 5%).  The probability of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:74107.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">contamination for mixed feed producers is assumed to be 32% (instead of the base case value of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:74126.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">16%).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:74164.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">1999</FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">:  We assume conditions return to those reflected by the base case assumptions.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:74202.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">3.4.4</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.10pt;top:74202.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Risk Management:  Specified Risk Materials (SRM) Ban</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:74233.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The SRM ban eliminates the potential for the following tissues to contaminate either</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:74252.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">human food or rendered material that might be used as feed:  brain, spinal cord, gut, eyes, and</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:74271.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">AMR meat products.  The SRM ban also eliminates the practice of rendering animals that die on</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:74290.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">the farm.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:74448.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:74484.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 3</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.20pt;top:75192.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.90pt;top:75192.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">84 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:74520.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">3.4.5</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:74520.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Risk Management:  A Ban on Rendering Animals that Die on the Farm</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:74550.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Animals that die on the farm are not rendered.  We assume that any infectivity in these</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:74569.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">animals will not contaminate either human food or rendered material that may be used as animal</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:74588.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">feed.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:75240.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:75276.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 4</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.20pt;top:75984.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.90pt;top:75984.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">85 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:75312.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 14.04pt">4 Results</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:75346.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">This section highlights key results of the analyses in this report.  Complete results can be</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:75365.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">found in Appendices 3A and 3B.  Appendix 3C describes how we have summarized the results</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:75384.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">generated by the simulation using tables and figures.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:75422.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Section 4.1 discusses the modeled impact of importing ten BSE-infected animals into the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:75441.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">U.S. under present-day conditions (</FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">i.e., </FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">the base case as described in Section 3.1).  The model</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:75460.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">predicts that such an introduction would be unlikely to result in new cases of BSE, that little</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:75479.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">infectivity would be likely to reach the U.S. human food supply, and that BSE would likely be</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:75498.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">cleared from U.S. in less than 20 years.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:75535.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Section 4.2 describes the results of the sensitivity analyses outlined in Section 3.2.  In</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:75554.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">particular, we describe how altering these assumptions influenced the predicted number of new</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:75573.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">BSE cases and the amount of infectivity potentially available for human consumption following</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:75592.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">introduction of ten  infected animals.  Key model parameters identified include the rate of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:75611.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">misfeeding on the farm, the proportion of prohibited feed that is mislabeled, the proportion of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:75630.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">clinical BSE cases detected during </FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">ante-mortem </FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">inspection, and the number of ID s in a</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:451.10pt;top:75636.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">50</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:75649.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">symptomatic animal.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:75687.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Section 4.3 describes the predicted impact of different sources of infectivity and</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:75706.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">evaluates both their plausibility and potential for BSE infectivty to spread to cattle or to be</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:75725.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">available for potential human exposure.  The simulation model predicts that under current</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:75744.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">conditions (i.e., base case assumptions) cross species transmission of scrapie or spontaneous BSE,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:75763.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">if they can occur, would produce one or two new cases of BSE per year in the U.S. and little</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:75782.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">infectivity to humans.  Further evaluation of the effect of importing infected animals reveals that</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:75801.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">even if 500 infected animals were imported, the disease would eventually be eliminated from the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:75820.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">U.S.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:75858.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Finally, Section 4.4 describes the model’s predictions for the scenarios outlined in</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:75877.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Section 3.4.  The predictions made by the model for the Switzerland scenario are sufficiently</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:75896.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">similar to those observed to lend the model credibility.  Our analysis of potential imports of BSE-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:75915.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">infected animals from the UK into the U.S. during the 1980s shows that it is unlikely although not</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:75934.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">impossible that these imports introduced BSE into the U.S. cattle population.  Finally, the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:76032.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:76068.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 4</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.20pt;top:76776.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.90pt;top:76776.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">86 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:76104.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">simulation’s predictions suggest that two risk management measures (a specified risk material</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:76123.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">ban or a ban on the rendering of cattle that die on the farm) would each further improve defenses</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:76142.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">against BSE in this country.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:76180.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Section 4.5  concludes our report with a summary of the main findings and the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:76199.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">implications of BSE for both animal and public health in the U.S.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:76237.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Before proceeding, we note that many of the simulation results are “right skewed,”</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:76255.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">meaning that the average value often exceeds the median (50 ) percentile and can sometimes</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:359.55pt;top:76254.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">th</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:76274.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">even exceed the 95 percentile.  A right-skewed distribution arises when rare events can result in</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:174.40pt;top:76273.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">th</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:76293.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">very large outcome values.  For example, the probability that the brain of a BSE-infected animal</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:76312.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">will be selected for potential human consumption is very low because there are few sick animals</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:76331.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">and few brains harvested for human consumption.  However, if this event does occur, it makes a</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:76350.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">substantial quantity of infectivity available for potential human consumption.  If this event only</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:76369.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">occurs one time out of 1,000 simulation runs, the arithmetic mean for  the number of cattle oral</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:76388.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">ID s available for human consumption from brain would exceed this outcome’s value for 999 of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:101.45pt;top:76393.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">50</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:76407.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">the 1,000 runs (</FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">i.e., </FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">zero).  For this reason, we report key percentile values for each outcome, in</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:76426.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">addition to the arithmetic mean.  Appendix 3C further describes how we have reported the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:76445.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">simulation results.  The results discussion focuses on mean and median values to characterize the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:76464.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">central tendency for each quantity, and the 95 percentile to characterize a quantity’s extreme</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:292.20pt;top:76463.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">th</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:76483.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(although not worst possible) case value.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:76521.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 12.00pt">4.1 Base Case</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:76553.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The assumptions in the base case correspond to contemporary conditions in the U.S.,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:76572.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">including all risk management actions taken by government and industry. Appendix 1, Section 2</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:76591.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">details the corresponding parameter values.  Because BSE has not been found in the U.S., the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:76610.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">base case is evaluated by assuming the import of ten BSE-infected animals.  Such an introduction</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:76629.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">is considered unlikely because of the ban on importing ruminants from countries known to have</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:76648.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">BSE. However, this approach allows characterization of the way in which infectivity could</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:76667.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">spread to animals or humans should the disease be introduced.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:76705.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Introduction of ten animals demonstrates the robustness of U.S. regulations and practices</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:76724.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">in preventing the establishment of BSE (full results can be found in Appendix 3A, Section 1).  On</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:76824.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:76860.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 4</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.20pt;top:77568.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.90pt;top:77568.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">87 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:76896.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">average, there are fewer than three new cases of BSE, with a 75 to 95% chance that there will be</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:76915.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">no new cases at all.  The extreme case (the 95 percentile of the distribution) predicts 11 new</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:292.60pt;top:76913.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">th</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:76934.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">cases.  The simulation predicts an average of 35 cattle oral ID s potentially available for human</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:363.35pt;top:76939.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">50</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:76953.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">consumption during the 20-year period following the import of the infected animals, with a 95</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:507.00pt;top:76951.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">th</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:76972.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">percentile value of 170 cattle oral ID s.  In all cases, the disease is quickly cleared from the U.S.,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:252.85pt;top:76977.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">50</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:76991.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">with virtually no chance that there are any infected animals 20 years following the import of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:77010.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">infected animals.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:77047.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Potential human exposure routes include consumption of brain (26% of the total on</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:77066.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">average), contaminated AMR product (67%), beef on bone (11%), intestine (2 %), and spinal</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:77085.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">cord (5 %).  Even these estimates are likely to overstate true human exposure because they</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:77104.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">represent the amount of infectivity </FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">presented </FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">for human consumption but do not take into account</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:77123.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">waste or actual consumption rates.  For example, the reported quantity for potential exposure of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:77142.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">ID s in beef on bone potential reflects the presence of spinal cord and dorsal root ganglia in a</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:101.45pt;top:77147.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">50</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:77161.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">fraction of cuts like T-bone steaks.  The spinal cord may never be consumed but is still available</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:77180.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">for potential human exposure.  Similarly, not all bovine brain removed for human consumption is</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:77199.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">actually eaten by humans.  Some is not purchased at the retail level and some is not consumed</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:77218.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">even when purchased.  These issues are also relevant to the other tissue categories.  For these</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:77237.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">reasons, our estimates of potential human exposure are likely to overestimate true exposure to</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:77256.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">infected BSE tissues.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:77294.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">To further characterize the resilience of the U.S. agriculture system, we simulated the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:77313.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">impact of introducing 1, 5, 20, 50, 100, 200 or 500 infected cattle (see Section 4.3.3).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:77351.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 12.00pt">4.2</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:77351.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 12.00pt">Sensitivity Analyses and Alternative Assumptions</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:77390.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">There exist considerable data gaps for many important model assumptions, and as a</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:77409.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">result, the assumptions used reflect the judgment of professionals in the field, as well as published</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:77428.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">data.  The incompleteness o the data introduces uncertainty.  We evaluate the influence of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:77447.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">uncertainty for several key parameters as a means to identify research or data collection needs.  A</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:77466.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">formal uncertainty analysis is impossible because a probability distribution of plausible values</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:77485.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">cannot be specified for the uncertain parameters.  Instead, we vary the values individually for</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:77504.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">each parameter analyzed, assigning it first its “worst case” value and then its “best case” value</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:77523.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">while holding all the other parameters equal to their base case values (Section 4.2.1).  The</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:77616.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:77652.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 4</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.20pt;top:78360.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.90pt;top:78360.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">88 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:77688.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">parameters and values analyzed as part of this sensitivity analysis are described in Section 3.2 of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:77707.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">the report and in Section 2.2 ofAppendix 2.  We also evaluate the effect of assuming that</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:77726.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">infectivity can be present in bovine blood at the level of detection of a standard test and that</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:77745.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">infectivity in the trigeminal ganglia can be harvested in the slaughter process (Section 4.2.2).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:77783.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">4.2.1 Sensitivity Analysis</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:77813.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Figures 4-1 and 4-2 summarize the sensitivity analysis results.  These figures illustrate</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:77832.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">the influence of altering each parameter’s value on each of two outcome quantities – the number</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:77851.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">of new BSE cases (Figure 4-1), and on human exposure to BSE (Figure 4-2).  This section</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:77870.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">focuses on the predicted mean value for these outcomes.  In Figures 4-1 and 4-2, the horizontal</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:77889.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">axis lists the individual parameters analyzed, while the vertical axis quantifies the associated</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:77908.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">range of outcome values.  A horizontal line above the horizontal axis designates the arithmetic</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:77927.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">mean value for the outcome quantity computed when all parameters were set equal to their base</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:77946.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">case value.  The range of values associated with each parameter’s best and worst case values are</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:77965.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">represented by the small horizontal lines at the extreme ends of a vertical line above the label for</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:77984.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">each parameter.  Because some of the parameters influence only very rare events, the output</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:78003.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">value ranges associated with some parameters do not encompass the output value computed by</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:78022.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">setting all parameters to their base case value.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:78060.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Figure 4-1 indicates that the parameters that have the greatest influence on the mean</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:78079.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">number of new BSE cases are directly associated with feed ban compliance.  The most influential</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:78098.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">parameter is the misfeeding rate, which represents the proportion of feed formulated for other</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:78117.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">species and containing prohibited MBM illegally administer to cattle.  The second-most</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:78136.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">influential parameter is the probability that prohibited feed will be mislabeled (</FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">i.e., </FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">lack the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:78155.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">required warning labels).  Other parameters evaluated had only a very small influence on the total</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:78174.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">number of new BSE cases.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:78212.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Figure 4-2 illustrates the impact of parameter uncertainty on the mean number of cattle</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:78231.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">oral ID s potentially available for human consumption.  Both the misfeeding and mislabeling</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:121.45pt;top:78236.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">50</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:78250.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">rates are again prominent, but two other parameters are influential as well.  First, the proportion</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:78269.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">of animals with clinical BSE signs identified and eliminated by the AM (</FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">antemortem</FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">) inspector is</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:78288.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">clearly important.  Second, the assumed number of cattle oral ID s in a full-blown clinical BSE</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:375.85pt;top:78293.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">50</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:78306.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">case is clearly influential.  These results are also sensitive to assumptions about contamination</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:78408.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:78444.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 4</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.20pt;top:79152.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.90pt;top:79152.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">89 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:78480.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">during the carcass splitting process (“splitter”).  Note that in virtually all these cases, even the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:78499.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">worst case values result in little infectivity being available for human consumption over a 20-year</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:78518.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">period following the introduction of ten sick animals.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:78556.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">4.2.2</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.10pt;top:78556.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Inherent Infectivity in Blood</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:78593.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Although blood infectivity has not been found in BSE-infected cattle, we test the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:78612.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">implications of assuming that the disease inherently results in infectivity in blood.  Our</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:78631.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">assumptions reflect the judgment of the SSC that one kg of any cattle tissue negative for</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:78649.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">infectivity in the mouse bioassay could contain as much as ten oral cattle ID s (SSC 2000).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:426.75pt;top:78655.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">50</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:78668.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Hence, we assume that the 3.8 kg of blood dried blood that can be recovered from an average</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:78687.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">steer (Romans and Ziegler 1974) could contain 38 cattle oral ID s.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:372.95pt;top:78693.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">50</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:78725.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Assuming that blood recovered from cattle contains 38 cattle oral ID s has a minimal</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:429.85pt;top:78730.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">50</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:78744.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">impact on animal health and human exposure to BSE infectivity following the import of ten BSE-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:78763.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">infected cattle into the U.S. The model predicts an average of four new cases of BSE over the 20-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:78782.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">year period following this introduction.  The 95 percentile value for the number of new BSE</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:301.00pt;top:78781.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">th</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:78801.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">cases is 14.  Blood infectivity on average contributes 0.11 new cases over the 20-year period (95</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:516.60pt;top:78800.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">th</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:78820.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">percentile value of 1.0)  There is no effect on potential exposure of humans to infectivity (mean</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:78839.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">of 34 ID s for the 20-year period).  Section 2.6 in Appendix 3A and 3B detail the simulation</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:127.25pt;top:78844.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">50</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:78858.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">results for this analysis.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:78896.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">4.2.3</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.10pt;top:78896.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Harvesting of Trigeminal Ganglia</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:78927.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Assuming that some fraction of trigeminal ganglia would be harvested along with cheek</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:78946.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">meat has little impact on human exposure.  Nor do the simulation results indicate that this</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:78965.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">assumption influences the predicted spread of BSE among cattle.  On average, the model predicts</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:78984.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">that trigeminal ganglia would contribute less than 0.00001% of the total infectivity that would be</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:79003.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">available for potential human consumption.  Section 2.7 in Appendix 3A and 3B detail the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:79022.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">simulation results for this analysis.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:79060.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 12.00pt">4.3</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.00pt;top:79060.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 12.00pt">Alternative Sources of Infectivity</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:79091.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">We evaluate two potential sources of BSE in the U.S., cross-species transmission of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:79110.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">scrapie from sheep (Section 3.3.3) and spontaneous development of the disease and its spread</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:79200.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:79236.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 4</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.20pt;top:79944.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.90pt;top:79944.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">90 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:79272.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">through cattle feed (Section 3.3.1).  In both cases we use base case assumptions.  To further</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:79291.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">characterize the US system we evaluate the effect of importation of infected animals, modeling</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:79310.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">the results of bringing 1, 5, 20, 50, 100, 200 or 500 infected cattle into the US.  ]</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:79348.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">4.3.1 Spontaneous</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:79378.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">For this scenario, the model predicts an average of 27 infected animals over a 20-year</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:79397.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">period (95 percentile value of 37).  It is predicted that only 2.6 animals, on average, would reach</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:135.85pt;top:79396.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">th</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:79416.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">the advanced stages of the disease (95 percentile of six).  Virtually all of the animals that</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:258.40pt;top:79415.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">th</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:79435.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">become infected develop the disease spontaneously, although maternal transmission and</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:79454.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">tranmission from contaminated protein both make a small contribution.  A mean of 77 cattle oral</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:79473.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">ID s are predicted to reach humans (95 percentile value of 220).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:101.45pt;top:79478.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">50</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:265.70pt;top:79472.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">th</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:79511.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">These results suggest that if this hypothesis is true the disease is essentially endemic, with</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:79530.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">one-to-two cases occurring each year.  Current agricultural practices and regulations (the feed</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:79549.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">ban) effectively check the spread of disease to other cattle but the disease cannot be eliminated</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:79568.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">because it of its sporadic occurrence.  The very low number of animals developing clinical signs</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:79587.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">would make detection through any method of surveillance very difficult.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:79625.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">4.3.2 Imports</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:79656.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Figure 4-3 illustrates the relationship between the number of infected cattle imported and</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:79674.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">the mean number of new cases (</FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">i.e.,</FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">, the number of cases in addition to the imported animals)</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:79693.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">during the 20 year period following the arrival in the U.S. of these imports.  Even with the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:79712.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">introduction of 100 BSE-infected cattle, there are fewer than 100 new cases of BSE in the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:79731.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">subsequent 20 years.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:79769.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Figure 4-4 illustrates the relationship between the number of infected cattle imported and</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:79788.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">human exposure to BSE infectivity (mean number of cattle oral ID s potentially available for</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:384.85pt;top:79793.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">50</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:79807.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">human consumption) during the 20 year period following the arrival in the U.S. of these imports.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:79826.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The contribution of the different exposure routes is roughly the same as in the base case.  The</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:79845.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">mean number of cattle oral ID s potentially available for human consumption over 20 years is</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:223.20pt;top:79850.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">50</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:79864.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">estimated to be approximately 2,000 following the introduction of 500 infected animals.  These</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:79883.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">ID s result from the consumption of both the introduced cases and the new cases that follow.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:101.45pt;top:79888.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">50</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:79992.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:80028.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 4</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.20pt;top:80736.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.90pt;top:80736.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">91 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:80064.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Finally, Figure 4-6. illustrates the relationship between the number of infected cattle</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:80083.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">imported and the probability that BSE will still be present in the U.S. 20 years following these</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:80102.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">imports.  The results indicate that after 20 years, BSE is eliminated with 90% probability even</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:80121.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">following the introduction of 500 infected cattle.  The probability of cases remaining 20 years</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:80140.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">after the introduction of one sick animal is zero.  The tendency for BSE to be eliminated is also</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:80159.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">implied by the predicted number of new infected animals following the import of infected</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:80178.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">animals.  Unless the number of new cases exceeds the number of challenge cases (</FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">i.e., </FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">unless</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:80197.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">each case gives rise to more than one case on average), the disease will tend to die out.  The time</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:80215.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">it takes to die out depends on the number of infected animals introduced initially.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:80254.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">4.3.3 Scrapie</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:80284.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">This simulation evaluates the impact of assuming that scrapie contributes one cattle oral</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:80303.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">ID</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:101.45pt;top:80308.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">50</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:111.15pt;top:80303.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">to feed consumed by cattle each month.  The simulation predicts that this contamination</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:80322.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">results in an average of 38 infected cattle over a period of 20 years (95</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:402.25pt;top:80321.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">th</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:410.30pt;top:80322.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">percentile estimate of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:80341.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">63).  The simulation also predicts that an average of about six animals would develop clinical</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:80360.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">symptoms during that period (95 percentile of 13).  Current surveillance would be unlikely to</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:234.60pt;top:80358.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">th</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:80379.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">detect this number of clinical cases.  On average, approximately 90 cattle oral ID s are predicted</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:448.20pt;top:80384.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">50</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:80398.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">to be available for potential human exposure during the 20 y ear period (95 percentile estimate</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:422.05pt;top:80396.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">th</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:80417.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">of 260).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:80455.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Because scrapie is assumed to contaminate cattle feed continually, the disease would</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:80474.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">essentially be endemic.  Note that the simulation predicts that most new cases of BSE would arise</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:80493.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">directly from exposure to scrapie infectivity, although a small number would result from exposure</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:80512.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">to contaminated ruminant protein that slips through the feed ban.  Maternal transmission makes a</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:80531.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">small contribution to the total.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:80569.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">We expect that the predictions made here are likely to overstate the true contribution of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:80588.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">scrapie to BSE, as explained in Section 3.3.3.  In brief, it is likely that the true species barrier is</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:80607.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">greater than the value of 1,000 used (it has proven impossible to transmit North American scrapie</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:80626.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">orally to cattle), and the prevalence of scrapie in the U.S. is probably less than the UK prevalence</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:80645.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">rates used in the calculation.  Section 3.3 of Appendices 3A and 3B detail the simulation results.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:80784.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:80820.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 4</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.20pt;top:81528.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.90pt;top:81528.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">92 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:80856.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 12.00pt">4.4 Alternative Scenarios</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:80887.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">This section details the results of several simulations designed to investigate further</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:80906.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">factors influencing spread of BSE infectivity.  The first scenario described models the small BSE</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:80925.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">outbreak in Switzerland as check on the plausibility of our model (section 4.4.1).  Next we</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:80944.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">examine the spontaneous hypothesis by looking at how spontaneous disease might have spread in</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:80963.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">the years before the FDA feed ban (section 4.4.2).  Section 4.4.3 examines how importation of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:80982.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">cattle from the UK during the 1980s may have affected the U.S.  The last two sections evaluate</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:81001.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">specific risk management strategies, including a specified risk material (SRM) ban identical to</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:81020.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">that imposed in the UK (Section 4.4.4), and a prohibition on the rendering of animals that die on</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:81039.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">the farm (Section 4.4.5).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:81077.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">4.4.1 Switzerland</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:81108.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">As discussed in Section 3.4.1, our model is not amenable to formal validation because</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:81127.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">there are no known controlled experiments in which the introduction and consequences of BSE</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:81146.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">introduction to a country has mean monitored and measured.  However, as a test of the model’s</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:81165.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">plausibility, we model the small BSE outbreak reported in Switzerland following the introduction</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:81184.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">of BSE infectivity from the UK.  Our simulation took into account risk management actions taken</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:81203.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">by the Swiss during the ensuing period (</FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">e.g., </FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">the introduction of a feed ban regulation).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:81241.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The model predicts both the total number of infected animals in Switzerland and those</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:81260.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">that develop clinical disease.  Only the latter can be detected using the standard surveillance</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:81279.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">methods in use early in the outbreak.  Current surveillance practices can detect disease in animals</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:81298.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">several months before development of clinical signs.  We also describe the predicted the time</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:81317.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">course of the BSE outbreak.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:81354.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Our simulation of Switzerland predicts an average of approximately 480 infected</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:81373.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">animals, 170 of which develop clinical signs of the disease.  It is impossible to know the true</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:81392.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">number of infected animals in Switzerland (because some may not have been identified), but the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:81411.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Swiss did report the identification of 324 animals with clinical signs between 1990 (when the first</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:81430.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">case was identified) and 2000.  Our simulation follows a time course similar to that observed in</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:81449.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Switzerland where risk management measures, including feed bans, have reduced the number of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:81468.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">clinical cases found and the outbreak appears to be abating. Complete simulation results appear</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:81487.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">in Section 4.1 of Appendices 3A and 3B.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:81576.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:81612.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 4</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.20pt;top:82320.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.90pt;top:82320.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">93 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:81667.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Our model’s modest underprediction of clinical cases could be due to incorrect</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:81686.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">specification of the number of infected animals imported or amount of contaminated feed</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:81705.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">introduced, among other factors.  At the same time, the similarity of our predictions and the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:81724.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">observations from Switzerland provide some confidence that the model’s structure and approach</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:81743.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">are reasonable.  It is important to note that this is not a true validation and, in fact, the model’s</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:81762.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">predictions could be close to reported observations for the wrong reasons.  However, given the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:81781.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">absence of data suitable for validating the model, the results of the Switzerland scenario are</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:81799.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">encouraging.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:81838.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">4.4.2</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:81838.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Spontaneous With no Feed Ban</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:81868.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">To further investigate the spontaneous hypothesis, we modeled a scenario in which</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:81887.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">spontaneous disease occurs using the rates described in Section 3.3.1, but no feed ban is present</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:81906.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">to mitigate the recycling of infectivity in ruminant feed.  The scenario, described in Section 3.4.2</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:81925.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">was run for 20 years.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:81963.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The absence of a feed ban allows BSE infectivity to rapidly spread throughout the cattle</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:81982.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">population.  The mean projection for this scenario suggests 42,000 animals infected over the 20</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:82001.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">year period (95 percentile of 190,000).  The average number of clinical animals predicted is</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:157.60pt;top:81999.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">th</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:82020.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">1,500 (95 percentile of 6,600).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:132.40pt;top:82018.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">th</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:82058.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">It should be noted that the simulation often predicts that the BSE prevalence rapidly</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:82077.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">increases towards the end of the twenty year period (see Section 4.2 in Appendices 3A and 3B for</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:82096.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">complete results).  This tendency suggests that if a longer time period were simulated, the model</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:82115.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">would predict a much greater burden of disease.  Hence, while some simulation runs predict</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:82134.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">prevalence rates that are low enough to be compatible with the fact that BSE has not been</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:82153.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">detected in the U.S., the results suggests that even in these cases, the prevalence would climb</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:82172.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">much higher if a longer period were simulated.  That is, in the absence of a feed ban, the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:82191.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">prevalence would most likely reach a detectable level in any case in just over 20 years.  The fact</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:82210.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">that BSE was not detected in the U.S. prior to the implementation of the feed ban therefore</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:82229.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">suggests that either spontaneous disease either does not occur, or that its incidence is less than we</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:82248.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">have assumed.  Alternately, the imposition of the feed ban may have stopped an epidemic before</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:82368.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:82404.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 4</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.20pt;top:83112.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.90pt;top:83112.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">94 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:82440.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">it could reach detectable levels.  In that case, the base case results suggest that the feed ban will</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:82459.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">eliminate the disease shortly.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:82497.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">4.4.3</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.10pt;top:82497.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Cattle Imported from the UK in the 1980s</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:82527.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">This scenario investigates the likelihood that BSE infectivity could have been introduced</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:82546.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">into the U.S. by the 173 cattle imported from the UK during the 1980s that may have</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:82565.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">contaminated either human food or animal feed (see Section 3.4.3).  We also determine the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:82584.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">amount of infectivity that may have been introduced.  Using these findings, we characterize the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:82603.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">likelihood that BSE could have been introduced into the U.S. and remained undetected.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:82641.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">As discussed in Section 3.4.3, some of the cattle imported into the U.S. from the UK</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:82660.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">between 1980 and 1989 may have been infected with BSE without showing clinical signs of the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:82679.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">disease.  As a result, diseased animals may have contaminated animal feed in this country.  Figure</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:82698.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">4-6 illustrates the cumulative distribution for the amount of infectivity (cattle oral ID s) that may</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:465.50pt;top:82703.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">50</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:82717.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">have been in feed consumed by cattle in the U.S. (see methodology in Section 3.4.3 and Section</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:82736.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">1.1 of Appendix 2).  The distribution indicates it is likely (probability of 82%) that U.S. cattle</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:82755.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">were exposed to no infectivity from cattle imported from the UK.  The probability that cattle were</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:82774.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">exposed to no more than 0.1 ID s is 84%, the probability that they were exposed to no more than</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:229.35pt;top:82779.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">50</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:82793.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">one ID</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:120.15pt;top:82798.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">50</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:129.85pt;top:82793.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">is 86%, the probability that they were exposed to no more than five ID s is 91%, the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:441.60pt;top:82798.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">50</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:82812.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">probability that they were exposed to no more than ten ID s is 93%, and the probability that they</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:345.85pt;top:82817.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">50</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:82831.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">were exposed to no more than 50 ID s is 96%.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:250.80pt;top:82836.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">50</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:82869.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">To characterize the impact of introducing infectivity into the U.S. during the 1980s, we</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:82888.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">have simulated the introduction of 0.1, 1.0, 5.0, 10.0, and 50.0 cattle oral ID s into cattle feed in</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:426.50pt;top:82893.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">50</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:82907.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">1980, and followed the evolution of the U.S. cattle population through 2010.  The results of these</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:82926.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">simulations (see Section 4.3 in Appendices 3A and 3B) can be used to quantify the likely number</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:82945.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">of clinical BSE cases that would have occurred and hence to assess the plausibility of these</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:82964.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">scenarios in light of the fact that BSE has not been detected in the U.S.  In particular,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:82983.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">introductions that result in too large a number of clinical cases to be compatible with the fact that</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:83002.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">BSE has not been detected in the U.S. are not plausible.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:83040.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Note that the distributions for the output quantities are highly skewed, indicating that</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:83058.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">under most circumstances the infectivity did not spread widely but that occasionally, there was a</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:83160.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:83196.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 4</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.20pt;top:83904.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.90pt;top:83904.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">95 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:83232.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">combination of events leading to significant numbers of infected cattle.  For example, when 0.1</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:83251.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">cattle oral ID</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:148.35pt;top:83256.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">50</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:158.05pt;top:83251.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">is introduced into feed, more than 950 of the 1,000 simulation runs for this</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:83270.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">scenario produced no new cases of disease.  However, a few runs produced substantial numbers</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:83289.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">of diseased animals.  Hence the mean number of infected animals (over all 1,000 simulations) is</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:83308.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">45, and the mean number of animals with clinical signs is ten.  Introducing larger quantities of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:83327.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">infectivity also yields right-skewed results distributions.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:83365.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The probability that BSE was introduced into the U.S. depends on two events – the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:83383.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">introduction of contaminated material from imported animals into domestic cattle feed</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:83402.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(probability of 18%), and the infection of exposed cattle and subsequent spread of BSE to other</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:83421.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">animals without the creation of so many cases that it would have been likely to have been</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:83440.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">discovered by surveillance.  Figure 4-7 illustrates for the year 2000 (year 20 of the simulation) the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:83459.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">predicted number of clinical (</FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">i.e.</FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">, detectable) cattle following introduction of 0.1, 1.0, 5.0, 10,0,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:83478.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">or 50.0 cattle oral ID s from the imported UK animals.  Also plotted is the USDA’s estimate of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:182.45pt;top:83483.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">50</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:83497.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">the number of clinical cases surveillance would have detected in the year 2000 with 95%</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:83516.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">probability (Victoria Bridges, personal communication).  For example, the curve in Figure 4-7</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:83535.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">corresponding to the introduction of 10.0 ID s indicates that there is an 82% chance that this</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:286.20pt;top:83540.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">50</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:83554.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">introduction caused no new BSE cases in the U.S. , and that it could have resulted in a maximum</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:311.15pt;top:83553.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">4</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:83573.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">of approximately 1,100 clinical cases in the year 2000.  However, all values exceeding the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:83592.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">detection limit of 470 clinical cases in the year 2000 (</FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">i.e.</FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">, above the horizontal “detection limit”</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:83611.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">line) are incompatible with the fact that no BSE has been detected in the U.S.  For the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:83630.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">introduction of 10.0 ID s, there is a 6% chance that the number of clinical cases in 2000 exceed</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:192.50pt;top:83635.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">50</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:83649.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">this limit (</FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">i.e.</FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">, a 94% chance that this number was below the detection limit).  Hence, even if</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:83668.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">cattle in the U.S. did consume 10.0 ID s in 1980, there is only a 12% chance (94% minus 82%)</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:259.20pt;top:83673.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">50</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:83687.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">that it resulted in BSE cases that have not been found.  Corresponding probabilities can be</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:83706.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">computed for the other ID</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:205.20pt;top:83711.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">50</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:214.95pt;top:83706.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">introductions considered.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:83744.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Taken together, Figures 4-6 and 4-7 are useful for evaluating the likelihood that BSE</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:83763.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">cattle imports from the UK during the 1980s introduced BSE into the U.S. but the disease has not</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:83782.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">spread to enough animals to be detected.  First, there is only an 18% chance that cattle in the U.S.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:90pt;top:83807pt;width:144pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:83811.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.48pt">4</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:95.70pt;top:83812.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Figure 4-7 illustrates the number of clinical cases in the year 2000, not the total number of BSE cases</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:83824.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">caused by the import of BSE-infected cattle from the UK.  However, the scenario simulated assumes that</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:83835.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">action to mitigate the spread of BSE in the U.S. occurs only after implementation of the feed ban in 1997.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:83847.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Hence, as suggested by the figures in Section 4.3 of Appendix 3B, the number of clinical animals peaks</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:83952.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:83988.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 4</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.20pt;top:84696.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.90pt;top:84696.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">96 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:84024.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">were exposed to any infectivity (see Figure 4-6).  Second, if cattle were exposed to infectivity,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:84043.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">there is only a limited probability that both 1) any cattle in the U.S. became infected, and 2) the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:84062.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">number of clinical cases (in the year 2000) was less than the number that would have been likely</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:84081.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">to have been detected (see Figure 4-7).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:84119.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Finally, the Figures in Section 4.3 of Appendix 3B illustrate how the disease spreads and</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:84138.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">contracts if it is introduced into the U.S. The figures suggest that the number of animals with</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:84157.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">detectable disease peaks in year 20 and declines thereafter.  This prediction indicates that even if</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:84175.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">infectivity has been introduced from UK cattle imported before 1989, the disease rate has peaked</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:84194.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">and BSE will eventually be eradicated.  The decline in the predicted disease prevalence in the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:84213.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">U.S. is due primarily to the introduction of the FDA feed ban in 1997.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:84252.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">4.4.4</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:84252.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Specified Risk Material Ban</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:84288.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">A risk management step that has been taken in many countries with BSE is the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:84307.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">prohibition of certain tissues being used in either animal feed or human food.  These specified</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:84326.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">risk material (SRM) bans focus on tissues carrying the greatest level of BSE infectivity.  To</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:84345.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">evaluate the effects of this approach in the U.S. if BSE were to be introduced, we altered the base</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:84364.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">case scenario as described in section 3.4.4 to mimic the UK SRM ban.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:84402.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The SRM ban has a dramatic effect on potential human exposure or the spread of BSE to</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:84421.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">cattle.  Following the introduction of 10 infected cattle, as in the base case, the mean number of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:84440.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">new BSE cases is reduced by 82% (from 2.9 to 0.51) and the mean number of cattle oral ID s</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:494.75pt;top:84445.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">50</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:84459.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">potentially available for human exposure decreases by 95% (from 35 to 1.7).  Results for this</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:84478.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">scenario appear in Section 4.4 of Appendices 3A and 3B.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:84516.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">4.4.5</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:84516.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Prohibition on Rendering Animals that Die on the Farm</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:84553.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The results for the base case simulation (section 4.2 and Section 1 in Appendices 3A and</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:84572.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">3B) make clear that if the BSE is introduced into the U.S., the greatest potential source of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:84591.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">infectivity in the feed system is animals that die on the farm and are rendered.  The simulations in</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:84610.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">this report assume an animal lives for between two and six months following the development of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:90pt;top:84644pt;width:432pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:84649.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">around the year 2000.  As a result, if there are zero clinical animals in the year 2000, it is almost certain that</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:84660.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">few if any animals were infected in the U.S.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:84744.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:84780.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 4</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.20pt;top:85488.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.90pt;top:85488.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">97 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:84816.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">clinical signs.  If the animal is not sent to slaughter, it dies on the farm.  Rendering an animal that</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:84835.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">has reached the clinical stage of disease introduces the maximum amount of infectivity into</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:84854.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">rendering and potentially into feed.  Hence, a single breach of the feed ban can introduce expose</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:84873.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">cattle to a substantial amount of BSE infectivity.  This scenario evaluates a risk management</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:84892.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">strategy that prohibits the rendering of animals that die on the farm.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:84930.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The simulation results indicate that this risk management strategy would have a</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:84949.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">substantial effect on the spread of BSE to other cattle following introduction of ten infected cattle.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:84967.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Compared to the base case, the mean number of new cases decreases by 77% (from 2.9 to 0.68).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:84986.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Although this approach targets the spread of BSE to other animals, it still has an effect on</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:85005.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">potential human exposure to BSE infectivity, decreasing this quantity by 20% because it</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:85024.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">decreases the number of new BSE cases.  Complete results appear in Section 4.5 of Appendices</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:85043.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">3A and 3B.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:85082.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 12.00pt">4.5 Summary</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:85120.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">This report is intended to address the potential for BSE to become a major animal health</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:85139.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">or public health threat in the U.S.  Based on the simulation model and assumptions developed for</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:85158.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">this analysis, inferences can be drawn about the robustness of regulations and practices in the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:85177.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">U.S., and data or research can be identified that would increase confidence in predictions.  In</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:85196.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">addition, it is possible to characterize the potential impact that various sources of BSE may have</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:85215.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">had in the U.S., including cattle imported from the UK in the 1980s.  Finally, the simulation can</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:85234.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">be used to characterize the effectiveness of additional risk management strategies.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:85272.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">We recognize that the identification of a single case of BSE in the U.S. would have</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:85291.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">important ramifications for public opinion, trade, and other areas.  Yet this analysis demonstrates</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:85310.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">that even if BSE were somehow to arise in the U.S., few additional animals would be infected,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:85329.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">little infectivity would be available for potential human exposure, and the disease would be</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:85348.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">eradicated.  In short, the U.S. appears very resistant to a BSE challenge, primarily because of the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:85367.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">FDA feed ban, which greatly reduces the chance that a sick animal will infect other animals.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:85386.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">However, the effectiveness of the feed ban is somewhat uncertain because compliance rates are</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:85405.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">not precisely known.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:85536.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:85572.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 4</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.20pt;top:86280.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.90pt;top:86280.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">98 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:85608.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Potential sources of human exposure to BSE infectivity can be divided into two</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:85627.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">categories: specific high-risk tissues and contamination of low-risk tissues.  Although not widely</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:85646.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">popular in the U.S., both brain and spinal cord are consumed by some members of the population.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:85665.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">If BSE were present in the U.S., these tissues would be an obvious source of exposure.  Our</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:85684.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">analysis indicates that the most important means by which low risk tissue can become</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:85703.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">contaminated is the use of advanced meat recovery (AMR) technology, which can leave spinal</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:85722.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">cord or dorsal root ganglia (DRG) in the recovered meat.  Our analysis further indicates mis-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:85741.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">splitting of the spinal column and the resulting incomplete removal of the spinal cord is largely</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:85759.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">responsible for contamination of AMR meat.  In addition, we assume that even in the absence of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:85778.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">mis-splitting, some amount of DRG is extracted whenever vertabrae are processed by AMR.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:85797.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Contamination due to aerosolization of the spinal cord during splitting contributes substantially</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:85816.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">less contamination even though it occurs every time an infected animal is processed.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:85854.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Despite the potential for the consumption of high risk-tissues and the contamination of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:85873.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">low-risk tissues, our results indicate that only small amounts of infectivity are available for</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:85892.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">human consumption.  The import of one infected animal yields in an average of 2.7 cattle oral</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:85911.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">ID s for potential human exposure over a 20 year period, while the import of ten infected cattle</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:101.45pt;top:85916.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">50</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:85930.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">results in an average of 35 cattle oral ID s this period.  These results can be put into context by</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:267.50pt;top:85935.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">50</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:85949.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">comparing them to potential exposure in the UK where it is estimated almost one million cattle</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:85968.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">were infected over a 15 to 20 year period.  If the UK population was potentially exposed to only</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:85987.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">one cattle oral ID</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:167.05pt;top:85992.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">50</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:176.80pt;top:85987.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">from each of these animals, potential human exposure in the UK would dwarf</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:86006.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">our projections for the U.S.  At this time, just over 100 cases of variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:86025.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(the human TSE linked to BSE) have been identified in the UK, although projections range from</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:86044.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">a few hundred to tens of thousands of eventual cases.  If cattle oral ID s available for human</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:399.25pt;top:86049.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">50</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:86063.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">consumption is a good indicator of possible disease risk, it is unlikely the UK experience would</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:86082.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">be duplicated in the U.S.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:86120.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">There are a number of model assumptions that cannot be verified with confidence, some</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:86139.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">of which influence the conclusions drawn.  With regard to estimating the spread of BSE among</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:86158.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">cattle, the most influential sources of uncertainty are related to compliance with the FDA feed</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:86177.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">ban.  Within this category, the most important source of uncertainty is the misfeeding rate on</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:86196.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">farms.  Misfeeding prohibited feed (containing ruminant protein) to cattle on farms that raise both</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:86215.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">cattle and either pigs or chickens completely compromises the feed ban.  This practice is the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:86234.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">focus of efforts to understand how animals born after the implementation of feed bans in Europe</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:86328.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:86364.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 4</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:295.20pt;top:87072.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.90pt;top:87072.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">99 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:86400.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">have become infected with BSE.  Uncertainty with respect to compliance rates can be reduced</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:86419.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">with field work and data collection.  A second source of uncertainty associated with the feed ban</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:86438.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">is the proportion of feed produced that is mislabeled (</FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">i.e.</FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">, lacks the proper labels identifying it as</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:86457.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">feed not to be administered to ruminants).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:86495.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Improving estimates of compliance with the feed ban would also improve estimates of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:86514.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">potential human exposure to BSE-contaminated meat.  Other important sources of uncertainty</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:86533.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">influencing estimates of human exposure include:  the number of ID s per clinical case of BSE,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:391.80pt;top:86538.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">50</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:86551.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">and the proportion of clinical animals that would be correctly identified by </FONT></FONT><i><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">ante mortem</FONT></FONT></i></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:86570.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">inspectors.  While the first of these two factors may be amenable to research, it is not clear how</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:86589.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">estimates for the second factor could be improved.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:86627.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">We have identified three important ways in which BSE could be introduced into the U.S:</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:86646.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">1) cross-species transmission from a native TSE like sheep scrapie, 2) spontaneous development</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:86665.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">of the disease in a native animals, or 3) the import of an infected animal or animal product from a</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:86684.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">country with BSE.  The analysis suggests that either cross-species transmission of a TSE (scrapie)</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:86703.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">or spontaneous disease, if they can occur, would lead to only a few cases of BSE each year and</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:86722.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">would result in relatively little potential human exposure.  However, results from our evaluation</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:86741.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">of the impact of spontaneous BSE on the U.S. prior to the 1997 FDA feed ban casts doubt on the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:86760.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">plausibility of this potential source of BSE. In particular, these results suggest there is a</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:86779.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">substantial probability that the number of animals with clinical signs would be sufficiently high to</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:86798.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">be inconsistent with the fact that surveillance has failed to detect BSE in the U.S. At the same</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:86817.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">time, the simulation results indicate that there is a non-trivial probability that spontaneous BSE</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:86836.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">would generate an insufficient number of animals to be detected by surveillance.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:86874.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">It is impossible to know if an infected animal was imported from the UK in the 1980s.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:86893.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Our analysis suggests it is highly unlikely. First, the imported animals whose disposition is not</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:86912.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">known came from farms where the disease was not found in any animal born the same year.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:86931.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Second, the beef breeding animals imported had little exposure to potentially infected protein</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:86950.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">supplements while in the UK.  Finally, many of the animals are known to have lived beyond the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:86969.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">average incubation period once they arrived in the US.  Nonetheless, there is some small</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:86988.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">probability that at least one of these animals was infected and that infectivity from such an animal</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:87007.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">contaminated feed consumed by cattle in the U.S.  Exposure to infectivity among U.S. cattle</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:87026.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">could not have been substantial because in the years prior to the 1997 FDA feed ban, such</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:87120.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:87156.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Section 4</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:292.70pt;top:87864.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:298.40pt;top:87864.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">100 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:87192.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">exposure would have eventually resulted in a substantial number of clinical cases, a prediction</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:87211.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">that is inconsistent with the fact that BSE has not been identified in the U.S. to date.  There is</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:87230.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">therefore a small chance that BSE could have been introduced into the U.S. and remained</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:87249.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">undetected.  Even if BSE was introduced, actions by USDA and FDA have already arrested the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:87268.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">spread of the disease and have begun to reduce its prevalence.  If BSE is present in the U.S., these</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:87287.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">actions will ultimately lead to the disease’s eradication.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:87325.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Evaluation of potential risk management actions highlights an additional benefit of this</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:87343.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">type of analysis.  The insights provided by the model demonstrated that steps very early in the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:87362.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">rendering and feed production process can avoid the need for other, more obvious, measures.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:87381.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Specifically, removing most of the infectivity from rendered product can protect human and</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:87400.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">animal health even if the feed ban is not 100% effective.  Prohibiting the rendering of dead</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:87419.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">animals, which may have died of BSE and hence have high levels of infectivity, or disposing of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:87438.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">all specified risk materials both reduce potential new cases of BSE by more than 75%.  The</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:87457.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">misfeeding rate, a key parameter identified in our sensitivity analysis, is not important if the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:87476.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">infectivity in prohibited MBM is greatly reduced or eliminated.  The SRM ban also reduces</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:87495.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">substantially the amount of infectivity available for potential human exposure.  Of course, it must</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:87514.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">be recognized that even in the absence of these measures, animal health risks and human</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:87533.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">exposure are both small, with the import of ten infected cattle leading to an average of fewer than</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:87552.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">three new cases of BSE and potential human exposure to 35 cattle oral ID s.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:416.40pt;top:87557.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">50</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.05pt;top:87590.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">As we strive to learn from BSE and limit the extent of the disease, the model developed</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:87609.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">for this analysis has many potential uses.  It is flexible and can be changed easily.  For example, if</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:87628.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">appropriate data are available, its parameters can be modified so that other countries or regions</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:87647.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">can be simulated.  Specific scenarios of interest can be evaluated, including risk management</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:87666.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">actions under consideration.  The model can also be used to evaluate hypotheses about sources</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:87685.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">and factors influencing the BSE’s spread.  We hope this model will find a place among the useful</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:87704.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">tools for understanding and controlling BSE.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:87912.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:87948.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">References</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:292.70pt;top:88656.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:298.40pt;top:88656.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">101 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:87984.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 14.04pt">References:</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:88018.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Agrimi, U., G. Ru, et al. (1999). “Epidemic of transmissible spongiform encephalopathy in sheep</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:88030.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">and goats in Italy.” Lancet </FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">353</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(9152): 560-1.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:176pt;top:88041pt;width:30pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:88056.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Airtime Internet Resources (2001). “Hypotheses for the origin and spread of BSE.”</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:88068.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">http://sparc.airtime.co.uk/bse/hypoth.htm#15</FONT></u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:88094.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Alpers, M. (1970). “Kuru in New Guinea: its changing pattern and etiologic elucidation.”</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:88106.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">American Journal of Tropical Medicine & Hygiene </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">19</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(1): 133-7.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:88132.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Anderson, R. M., C. A. Donnelly, et al. (1996). “Transmission dynamics and epidemiology of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:88144.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">BSE in British cattle.” N</FONT></FONT><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">ature </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">382</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(6594): 779-88.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:88170.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Andreoletti, O., P. Berthon, et al. (2000). “Early accumulation of PrP(Sc) in gut-associated</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:88182.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">lymphoid and nervous tissues of susceptible sheep from a Romanov flock with natural scrapie.”</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:88195.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Journal of General Virology. </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">81</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(12): 3115-26.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:88220.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Anil, M. H., S. Love, et al. (1999). “Potential contamination of beef carcasses with brain tissue at</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:88233.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">slaughter.” Veterinary </FONT></FONT><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Record </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">145</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(16): 460-2.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:88258.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Anonymous (1996). “Surveillance for Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease--United States.” MMWR </FONT></FONT><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">-</FONT></FONT></u></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:88271.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Morbidity & Mortality Weekly Report </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">45</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(31): 665-8.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:88296.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Belt, P., I. Muileman, et al. (1995). “Identification of five allelic variants of sheep PrP gene and</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:88309.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">their association with natural scrapie.” J</FONT></FONT><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">ournal of General Virology </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">76</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(509-517).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:88334.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Biopharm (1997). “Assessment of the risk of bovine spongiform encephalopathy in</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:88347.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Pharmaceutical Products.” http://www.biopharm</FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">-mag.com/resources/pharma0198.htm</FONT></u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:88372.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Bolton, D. C., M. P. McKinley, et al. (1982). “Identification of a protein that purifies with the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:88385.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">scrapie prion.” Science </FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">218</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(4579): 1309-11.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:158pt;top:88396pt;width:34pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:88410.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Borras, T. and C. J. Gibbs, Jr. (1986). “Molecular hybridization studies with scrapie brain nucleic</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:88422.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">acids. I. Search for specific DNA sequences.” </FONT></FONT><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Archives of Virology </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">88</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(1-2): 67-78.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:88448.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Bossers, A., P. Belt, et al. (1997). “Scrapie susceptibility-linked polymorphisms modulate the in</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:88460.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">vitro conversion of sheep prion protein to protease-resistant forms.” Proceeding</FONT></FONT><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">s of the National</FONT></FONT></u></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:88473.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Academy of Sciences of the United States of America </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">94</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(10): 4931-6.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:88498.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Bradley, R. (1999). “BSE transmission studies with particular reference to blood.” Dev</FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">elopm</FONT></u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">ents</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:88511.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">in Biological Standardization </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">99</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">: 35-40.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:88536.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Brown, P. and R. Bradley (1998). “1755 and all that: a historical primer of transmissible</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:88549.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">spongiform encephalopathy.” BMJ </FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">317</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(7174): 1688-92.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:223pt;top:88560pt;width:21pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:88574.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Brown, P., L. Cervenakova, et al. (1994). “Iatrogenic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease: An example of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:88587.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">the interplay between ancient genes and modern medicine.” Neurolog</FONT></FONT><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">y </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">44</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">: 291-293.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:88704.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:88740.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">References</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:292.70pt;top:89448.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:298.40pt;top:89448.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">102 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:88776.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Brown, P., L. Cervenakova, et al. (1999). “Further studies of blood infectivity in an experimental</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:88788.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">model of transmissible spongiform encephalopathy, with an explanation of why blood</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:88801.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">components do not transmit Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease in humans.” T</FONT></FONT><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">ransfusion </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">39</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(11-12): 1169-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:88814.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">78.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:88839.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Brown, P., C. J. Gibbs, et al. (1994). “ Human spongiform encephalopathy: the National Institutes</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:88852.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">of Health series of 300 cases of experimentally transmitted disease</FONT></FONT><i><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">.</FONT></FONT></i><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">” Annals of Neurology </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">35</FONT></i></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(5):</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:88864.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">513-29.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:88890.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Brown, P., P. Rodgers-Johnson, et al. (1984). “Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease of long duration:</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:88902.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">clinicopathological characteristics, transmissibility, and differential diagnosis.” A</FONT></FONT><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">nnals of</FONT></FONT></u></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:88915.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Neurology </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">16</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(3): 295-304.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:88940.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Bruce, M., A. Chree, et al. (1994). “Transmission of bovine spongiform encephalopathy and</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:88953.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">scrapie to mice: strain variation and the species barrier.” Philosophical T</FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">ransactions of the Roya</FONT></u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">l</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:88965.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Society of London - Series B: Biological Sciences </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">343</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(1306): 405-11.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:88991.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Bruce, M. and H. Fraser (1982). “Focal and asymmetrical vacuolar lesions in the brains of mice</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:89003.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">infected with certain strains of scrapie.” Acta Neuropathol </FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">58</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">: 133-140.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:269pt;top:89014pt;width:79pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:89029.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Bruce, M., P. McBride, et al. (1989). “Precise targeting of the pathology of the sialoglycoprotein</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:89041.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">PrP, and neuronal vacuolization in mouse scrapie.” Neurosci. Lett </FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">102</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">: 1-6.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:318pt;top:89052pt;width:63pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:89067.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Bruce, M. E., I. McConnell, et al. (1991). “The disease characteristics of different strains of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:89079.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">scrapie in Sinc congenic mouse lines: implications for the nature of the agent and host control of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:89092.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">pathogenesis.” J</FONT></FONT><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">ournal of General Virology </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">72</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(Pt 3): 595-603.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:89117.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Bruce, M. E., R. G. Will, et al. (1997). “Transmissions to mice indicate that 'new variant' CJD is</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:89130.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">caused by the BSE agent.” N</FONT></FONT><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">ature </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">389</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(6650): 498-501.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:89155.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">BSE Inquiry (2000). “Conclusions drawn from the scientific response to BSE.”</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:89168.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">http://www.bseinquiry.gov.uk/report/volume1/execsum2.htm</FONT></FONT></u></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:89193.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Bueler, H., A. Aguzzi, et al. (1993). “Mice devoid of PrP are resistant to scrapie.” Cell </FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">73</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(7):</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:454pt;top:89204pt;width:18pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:89206.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">1339-47.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:89231.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Canadian Food Inspection Agency Animal Products Animal Health and Production (2001).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:89244.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">“Chronic Wasting Disease (CWD) of Deer and Elk.”</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:89256.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">http://www.inspection.gc.ca/english/anima/heasan/disemala/cwdmdce.shtml</FONT></u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:89282.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Caramelli, M., G. Ru, et al. (2001). “Evidence for the transmission of scrapie to sheep and goats</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:89294.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">from a vaccine against Mycoplasma agalactiae.” Veterinary </FONT></FONT><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Record </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">148</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(17): 531-6.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:89320.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Carlson, G. A., S. J. DeArmond, et al. (1994). “Genetics of prion diseases and prion diversity in</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:89332.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">mice.” Philosophical T</FONT></FONT><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">ransactions of the Royal Society of London - Series B: Biological Sciences</FONT></FONT></u></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:89345.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">343</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(1306): 363-9.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:89370.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Cervenakova, L., L. G. Goldfarb, et al. (1998). “Phenotype-genotype studies in kuru: implications</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:89383.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">for new variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease.” Proceeding</FONT></FONT><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">s of the National Academy of Sciences of</FONT></FONT></u></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:89395.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">the United States of America </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">95</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(22): 13239-41.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:89496.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:89532.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">References</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:292.70pt;top:90240.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:298.40pt;top:90240.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">103 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:89568.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Chesebro, B. (1999). “Prion protein and the transmissible spongiform encephalopathy diseases.”</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:89580.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Neuron </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">24</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(3): 503-6.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:89606.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">CJD Surveillance Unit (2001). “Information on the new variant of CJD.”</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:89618.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">http://www.cjd.ed.ac.uk/</FONT></u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:89644.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Clark, W. W., J. L. Hourrigan, et al. (1995). “Encephalopathy in cattle experimentally infected</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:89656.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">with the scrapie agent.” A</FONT></FONT><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">merican Journal of Veterinary Research </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">56</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(5): 606-12.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:89682.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Collinge, J. and M. Palmer (1997). Human Prrion Diseases. Prion D</FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">iseases</FONT></u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">. J. Collinge and M.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:89694.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Palmer, Oxford University Press</FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">: </FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">18-49.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:89719.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Collinge, J., M. Palmer, et al. (1991). “Genetic predisposition to iatrogenic Creutzfeldt-Jakob</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:89732.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">disease.” Lancet </FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">337</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(8755): 1441-2.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:132pt;top:89743pt;width:30pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:89757.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Collinge, J., K. C. Sidle, et al. (1996). “Molecular analysis of prion strain variation and the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:89770.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">aetiology of 'new variant' CJD.” N</FONT></FONT><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">ature </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">383</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(6602): 685-90.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:89795.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Cullie, J. and P.-L. Celle (1939). “Transmission experimentale de la tremblante chez la chevre.”</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:89808.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Comptes Rendus Academie des Sciences </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">208</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">: 1058-1060.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:89833.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Cullie, J. and P. Chelle (1936). “La maladie dite tremblante du mouton, est-elle inoculable?”</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:89846.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Comptes rendu de l' Academie des Sciences </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">203</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">: 1552-1554.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:89871.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Cutlip, R., J. Miller, et al. (2001). “Resistance of cattle to scrapie by the oral route.” C</FONT></FONT><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">anadian</FONT></FONT></u></FONT></SPAN>
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<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:89909.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Cutlip, R. C., J. M. Miller, et al. (1997). “Second passage of a US scrapie agent in cattle.” </FONT></FONT><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Journal</FONT></FONT></u></FONT></SPAN>
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<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:89947.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Cutlip, R. C., J. M. Miller, et al. (1994). “Intracerebral transmission of scrapie to cattle.” J</FONT></FONT><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">ournal</FONT></FONT></u></FONT></SPAN>
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<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:90074.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Dickinson, A., H. Fraser, et al. (1976). “Scrapie incubation time can exceed natural lifespan.”</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
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<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:90112.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Dickinson, A. G. and V. M. Meikle (1971). “Host-genotype and agent effects in scrapie</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:90124.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">incubation: change in allelic interaction with different strains of agent.” Molecular & </FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Ge</FONT></u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">neral</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
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<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:90162.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Dickinson, A. G. and G. W. Outram (1988). “Genetic aspects of unconventional virus infections:</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:90175.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">the basis of the virino hypothesis.” Ciba Foundation Sy</FONT></FONT><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">mposium </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">135</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">: 63-83.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
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<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:488pt;top:90371pt;width:31pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:90372.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">of the New York Academy of Sciences </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">724</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">: 246-58.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:90398.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Dlouhy, S. R., K. Hsiao, et al. (1992). “Linkage of the Indiana kindred of Gerstmann-Sträussler-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:90410.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Scheinker disease to the prion protein gene.” Nature Genetics </FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">1</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(1): 64-7.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:291pt;top:90421pt;width:71pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:90436.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Doherr, M. G., D. Heim, et al. (1999). “Modeling the expected numbers of preclinical and clinical</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:90448.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">cases of bovine spongiform encephalopathy in Switzerland.” V</FONT></FONT><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">eterinary Record </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">145</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(6): 155-60.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:90474.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Donnelly, C. (1998). “Maternal transmission of BSE: interpretation of the data on the offspring of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:90486.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">BSE-affected pedigree suckler cows.” V</FONT></FONT><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">eterinary Record. 142(21):579-80</FONT></FONT><i><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">, </FONT></FONT></i></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">142</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(21): 579-80.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:90511.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Donnelly, C. A., N. M. Ferguson, et al. (1997). “Analysis of dam-calf pairs of BSE cases:</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:90524.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">confirmation of a maternal risk enhancement.” Proceeding</FONT></FONT><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">s of the Royal Society of London -</FONT></FONT></u></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:90537.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Series B: Biological Sciences </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">264</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(1388): 1647-56.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:90562.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Donnelly, C. A., N. M. Ferguson, et al. (1997). “The epidemiology of BSE in cattle herds in</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:90575.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Great Britain. I. Epidemiological processes, demography of cattle and approaches to control by</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:90587.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">culling.</FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London - Series B: Biolog</FONT></u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">ical</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:90600.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Sciences </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">352</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(1355): 781-801.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:90625.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Duguid, J. R., R. G. Rohwer, et al. (1988). “Isolation of cDNAs of scrapie-modulated RNAs by</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:90638.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">subtractive hybridization of a cDNA library.” Pr</FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">oceedings of the National Academy of Scie</FONT></u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">nces</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:90651.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">of the United States of America </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">85</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(15): 5738-42.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:90676.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Eastern Research Group, I. (1996). “TSE Regulatory Options Cost Analysis.”</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:90689.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">http://www.fda.gov/cvm/index/bse/tse1.pdf</FONT></u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:90714.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Ebringer, A., C. Thorpe, et al. (1997). “Bovine spongiform encephalopathy: is it an autoimmune</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:90726.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">disease due to bacteria showing molecular mimicry with brain antigens?” Env</FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">ironmental H</FONT></u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">ealth</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:90739.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Perspectives </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">105</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(11): 1172-4.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:90764.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Elsen, J. M., Y. Amigues, et al. (1999). “Genetic susceptibility and transmission factors in</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:90777.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">scrapie: detailed analysis of an epidemic in a closed flock of Romanov.” Archiv</FONT></FONT><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">es of Virology</FONT></FONT></u></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:90790.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">144</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(3): 431-45.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:90815.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">European Commission (1999). “The evaluation of tests for the diagnosis of Transmissible</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:90828.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Spongiform Encephalopathy in Bovines (8 July 1999).”</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:90840.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">http://europa.eu.int/comm/food/fs/bse/bse12_en.html</FONT></u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:90866.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">European Commission (1999). “No evidence for BSE transmission through milk.”</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:90878.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">http://europa.eu.int/comm/dgs/health_consumer/library/press/press28_en.html</FONT></u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:90904.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">European Commission (2000). “Commission Decision of 5 June 2000 amending Decision</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:90916.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">98/272/EC on epidemio-surveillance for transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (notified</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:90929.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">under document number C(2000) 1144).”</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:90954.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">European Commission (2001). “Chronolog</FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">ical overview </FONT></u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">of Community legislation concerning</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:90967.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">BSE.” http://europa.eu.int/com</FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">m/food/fs/bse/bse15_en.pdf</FONT></u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:91080.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:91116.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">References</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:292.70pt;top:91824.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:298.40pt;top:91824.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">105 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:91152.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Ferguson, N. M., C. A. Donnelly, et al. (1997). “The epidemiology of BSE in cattle herds in</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:91164.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Great Britain. II. Model construction and analysis of transmission dynamics.” Philosophical</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:435pt;top:91175pt;width:60pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:91177.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Transactions of the Royal Society of London - Series B: Biological Sciences </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">352</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(1355): 803-38.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:91202.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Ferguson, N. M., C. A. Donnelly, et al. (1997). “A genetic interpretation of heightened risk of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:91215.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">BSE in offspring of affected dams.” Proceeding</FONT></FONT><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">s of the Royal Society of London - Series B:</FONT></FONT></u></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:91228.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Biological Sciences </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">264</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(1387): 1445-55.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:91253.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Fitzsimmons, W. M. and I. H. Pattison (1968). “Unsuccessful attempts to transmit scrapie by</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:91266.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">nematode parasites.” Research in V</FONT></FONT><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">eterinary Science </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">9</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">: 281-283.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:91291.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Food and Drug Administration (1997). “Substances Prohibited From Use in Animal Food or</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:91303.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Feed; Animal Proteins</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:91329.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Prohibited in Ruminant Feed; Final Rule-21 CFR Part 589.”</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:91341.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">http://www.fda.gov/cvm/index/bse/6597bse.htm </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">62</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(108): 30935.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:91367.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Food and Drug Administration (2001). “Transmissible Spongiform Encephalopathy Advisory</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:91379.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Meeting, March 19, 2001.” http://www.fda.g</FONT></FONT><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">ov/ohrms/dockets/ac/cber01.htm#Transmissible</FONT></FONT></u></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:91392.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Spongiform Encephalopathies</FONT></u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:91417.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Food and Drug Administration (2001). “Update on Ruminant Feed (BSE) Enforcement</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:91430.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Activities.” http://www.fda.g</FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">ov/cvm/index/updates/bseup.htm</FONT></u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:91455.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Foster, J., M. Bruce, et al. (1996). “Detection of BSE infectivity in brain and spleen of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:91468.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">experimentally infected sheep.” Vet R</FONT></FONT><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">ec. </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">138</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(22): 546-8.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:91493.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Foster, J., D. Parnham, et al. (2001). “Clinical signs, histopathology and genetics of experimental</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:91506.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">transmission of BSE and natural scrapie to sheep and goats.” V</FONT></FONT><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">eterinary Record. </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">148</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(6): 164-71.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:91531.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Foster, J. D., J. Hope, et al. (1993). “Transmission of bovine spongiform encephalopathy to sheep</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
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<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:91771.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Garland, T., N. Bauer, et al. (1996). “Brain emboli in the lungs of cattle after stunning.” Lancet</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
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<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:480pt;top:92018pt;width:30pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:92020.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">335</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(8700): 1275.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:92045.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Glatzel, M. and A. Aguzzi (2001). “The shifting biology of the prions.” Brain Research Rev</FONT></FONT><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">iews</FONT></FONT></u></FONT></SPAN>
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<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:92083.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Goldmann, W., N. Hunter, et al. (1991). “Different forms of the bovine PrP gene have five or six</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
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<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:92450.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Hadlow, W. J., R. C. Kennedy, et al. (1980). “Virologic and neurohistologic findings in dairy</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:92462.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">goats affected with natural scrapie.” V</FONT></FONT><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">eterinary Pathology </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">17</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(2): 187-99.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:92488.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Hamir, A., R. Cutlip, et al. (2001). “Preliminary findings on the experimental transmission of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:92500.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">chronic wasting disease agent of mule deer to cattle.” J </FONT></FONT><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Vet Diagn Invest. </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">13</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(1): 91-96.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:92526.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Hansen, M. (1999). “Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease.” New Eng</FONT></FONT><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">land Journal of Medicine. </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">340</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(21):</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:92538.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">1689.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
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<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:92700.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">References</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
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<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:298.40pt;top:93408.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">107 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:92736.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Harbour, D. (2001). “Measures to reduce contamination of meat and environment with CNS</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:92748.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">tissue during slaughter and processing of cattle and sheep.”</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:92761.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">http://europa.eu.int/comm/research/press/1998/pr2710en.html</FONT></u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
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<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:92824.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Hill, A. F., M. Antoniou, et al. (1999). “Protease-resistant prion protein produced in vitro lacks</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:92837.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">detectable infectivity.” J</FONT></FONT><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">ournal of General Virology </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">80</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(Pt 1): 11-4.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:92862.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Hill, A. F., M. Desbruslais, et al. (1997). “The same prion strain causes vCJD and BSE.” N</FONT></FONT><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">ature</FONT></FONT></u></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:92875.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">389</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(6650): 448-50.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:92900.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Hill, A. F., S. Joiner, et al. (2000). “Species-barrier-independent prion replication in apparently</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:92913.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">resistant species.” Proceeding</FONT></FONT><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">s of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of</FONT></FONT></u></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:92925.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">America </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">97</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(18): 10248-53.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:92951.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Hoinville, L. J. (1996). “A review of the epidemiology of scrapie in sheep.” </FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Revue Scientifique </FONT></u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">et</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:92963.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Technique </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">15</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(3): 827-52.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:92989.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Hoinville, L., A. R. McLean, et al. (1999). “Scrapie occurrence in Great Britain.” Veterinary</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:452pt;top:93000pt;width:47pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:93001.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Record </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">145</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(14): 405-6.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:93027.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Holman, R. C., A. S. Khan, et al. (1995). “Epidemiology of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease in the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:93039.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">United States, 1979-1990: analysis of national mortality data.” N</FONT></FONT><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">euroepidemiology </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">14</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(4): 174-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:93052.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">81.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:93077.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Horn, G., M. Bobrow, et al. (2001). “Review of the Origin of BSE.”</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:93090.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">http://www.maff.gov.uk/animalh/bse/bseorigin.pdf</FONT></u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:93115.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Hourrigan, J., A. Klingsporn, et al. (1979). Slow transm</FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">issible diseases of the central nerv</FONT></u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">ous</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:93128.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">system</FONT></u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">, Academy Press, New York.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:93153.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Hsiao, K. and S. Prusiner (1990). “Inherited human prion diseases.” Neurolog</FONT></FONT><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">y </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">40</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">: 1820-1827.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:93178.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Hsiao, K., M. Scott, et al. (1991). “Spontaneous neurodegeneration in transgenic mice with prion</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:93191.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">protein codon 101 proline----leucine substitution.” </FONT></FONT><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences</FONT></FONT></u></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:93204.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">640</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">: 166-70.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:93229.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Hsiao, K. K., D. Groth, et al. (1994). “Serial transmission in rodents of neurodegeneration from</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:93242.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">transgenic mice expressing mutant prion protein.” Proceeding</FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">s of the National Academy </FONT></u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:93254.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Sciences of the United States of America </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">91</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(19): 9126-30.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:93280.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Hueston, W. (1997). 62 FR 551-583: Substances Prohibited from Use in Animal Food or Feed;</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:93292.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Animal Proteins Prohibited in Ruminant Feed; Proposed Rule,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:93305.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">http://www.fda.gov/cvm/index/bse/bsetoc.html.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:93330.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Hunter, N. (1997). “PrP genetics in sheep and the applications for scrapie and BSE.” T</FONT></FONT><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">rends in</FONT></FONT></u></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:93343.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Microbiology </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">5</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(8): 331-4.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:93368.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Hunter, N. (1998). “Scrapie.” Molecular Biotechnolog</FONT></FONT><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">y </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">9</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">: 225-234.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:93456.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:93492.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">References</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:292.70pt;top:94200.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:298.40pt;top:94200.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">108 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:93540.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Hunter, N. and D. Cairns (1998). “Scrapie-free Merino and Poll Dorset sheep from Australia and</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:93553.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">New Zealand have normal frequencies of scrapie-susceptible PrP genotypes.” J</FONT></FONT><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">ournal of General</FONT></FONT></u></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:93566.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Virology </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">79</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(Pt 8): 2079-82.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:93591.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Hunter, N., J. D. Foster, et al. (1996). “Natural scrapie in a closed flock of Cheviot sheep occurs</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:93604.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">only in specific PrP genotypes.” Archiv</FONT></FONT><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">es of Virology </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">141</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(5): 809-24.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:93629.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Hunter, N., W. Goldmann, et al. (1993). “Swaledale sheep affected by natural scrapie differ</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:93642.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">significantly in PrP genotype frequencies from healthy sheep and those selected for reduced</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:93654.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">incidence of scrapie.” J</FONT></FONT><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">ournal of General Virology </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">74</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(Pt 6): 1025-31.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:93679.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Hunter, N., W. Goldmann, et al. (1997). “Natural scrapie and PrP genotype: case-control studies</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:93692.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">in British sheep.” Veterinary </FONT></FONT><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Record </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">141</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(6): 137-40.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:93717.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Hunter, N., W. Goldmann, et al. (1994). “Frequencies of PrP gene variants in healthy cattle and</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:93730.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">cattle with BSE in Scotland.” Veterinary </FONT></FONT><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Record </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">135</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(17): 400-3.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:93755.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Hunter, N., L. Moore, et al. (1997). “Association between natural scrapie and PrP genotype in a</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:93768.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">flock of Suffolk sheep in Scotland.” V</FONT></FONT><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">eterinary Record </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">140</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(3): 59-63.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:93793.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Ikeda, T., M. Horiuchi, et al. (1995). “Amino acid polymorphisms of PrP with reference to onset</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:93806.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">of scrapie in Suffolk and Corriedale sheep in Japan.” J</FONT></FONT><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">ournal of General Virology </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">76</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(10): 2577-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:93819.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">81.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:93844.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Ironside, J. W., M. W. Head, et al. (2000). “Laboratory diagnosis of variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:93857.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">disease.” Histopatholog</FONT></FONT><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">y </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">37</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(1): 1-9.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:93882.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Kelley, L. C., S. Hafner, et al. (2000). “An evaluation of methods for the detection of spinal cord</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:93894.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">in product derived from advanced meat recovery systems.” J</FONT></FONT><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">ournal of Food Protection </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">63</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(8):</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:93907.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">1107-12.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:93932.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Kelly, D., H. Rearson, et al. (1980). Morbidity in captive white tigers. Com</FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">parative Pathology </FONT></u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:93945.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Zoo animals</FONT></u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">. R. Montali and G. Migaki. Washington DC, Institute Press</FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">: </FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">183-188.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:93970.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Kimberlin, R., S. Cole, et al. (1987). “Temporary and permanent modifications to a single strain</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:93983.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">of mouse scrapie on transmission to rats and hamsters.” J</FONT></FONT><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">ournal of General Virology. 68 ( Pt</FONT></FONT></u></FONT></SPAN>
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<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:94021.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Kimberlin, R. H. (1990). “Transmissible encephalopathies in animals.” Canadian J</FONT></FONT><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">ournal of</FONT></FONT></u></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:94034.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Veterinary Research </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">54</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(1): 30-7.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:94059.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Kimberlin, R. H. and C. A. Walker (1988). Pathog</FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">enesis of experimental scrapie</FONT></u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">. Novel</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:94072.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">infectious agents and the central nervous system-Ciba Foundation Symposium, Wiley,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
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<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:94110.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Kimberlin, R. H. and C. A. Walker (1989). “Pathogenesis of scrapie in mice after intragastric</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
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<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:94320.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Kimberlin, R. H., C. A. Walker, et al. (1983). “Disinfection studies with two strains of mouse-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:94332.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">passaged scrapie agent. Guidelines for Creutzfeldt-Jakob and related agents.” J</FONT></FONT><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">ournal of the</FONT></FONT></u></FONT></SPAN>
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<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:96422.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Rudbeck, J. (1999). “More Products Shipping Overseas but Cost Less.” Renderer, T</FONT></FONT><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">he National</FONT></FONT></u></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:96435.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Magazine of the Renderering</FONT></u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(October).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:96460.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Ryder, S. J., S. A. Hawkins, et al. (2000). “The neuropathology of experimental bovine</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:96473.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">spongiform encephalopathy in the pig.” J</FONT></FONT><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">ournal of Comparative Pathology </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">122</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(2-3): 131-43.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:96498.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Schaller, O., R. Fatzer, et al. (1999). “Validation of a western immunoblotting procedure for</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:96511.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">bovine PrP(Sc) detection and its use as a rapid surveillance method for the diagnosis of bovine</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:96523.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">spongiform encephalopathy (BSE).” Acta Neuropatholog</FONT></FONT><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">ica </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">98</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(5): 437-43.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:96624.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:96660.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">References</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:292.70pt;top:97368.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:298.40pt;top:97368.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">112 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:96696.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Schmidt, G., R. S. Yemm, et al. (2001). “Beta site analysis and verification of different glial</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:96708.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP) analyses as accurate detectors of central nervous system tissue in</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:96721.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">advanced meat recovery (AMR) products.” </FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">In press</FONT></i></u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:96746.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Schmidt, G. R., K. L. Hossner, et al. (1999). “An enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay for glial</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:96759.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">fibrillary acidic protein as an indicator of the presence of brain or spinal cord in meat.” </FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Journal </FONT></u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:96772.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Food Protection </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">62</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(4): 394-7.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:96797.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Schreuder, B. E., R. E. Geertsma, et al. (1998). “Studies on the efficacy of hyperbaric rendering</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:96810.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">procedures in inactivating bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) and scrapie agents.”</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:96822.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Veterinary Record </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">142</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(18): 474-80.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:96847.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Scott, M. R., R. Will, et al. (1999). “Compelling transgenetic evidence for transmission of bovine</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:96860.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">spongiform encephalopathy prions to humans.” Proceeding</FONT></FONT><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">s of the National Academy of Sciences</FONT></FONT></u></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:96873.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">of the United States of America </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">96</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(26): 15137-42.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:96898.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">SEAC (1997). “Public summary of meeting on 24 October 1997.” .</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:96923.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">SEAC (1999). “SEAC ANNUAL REPORT 1997-98.”</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:96936.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">http://www.maff.gov.uk/animalh/bse/index.html</FONT></u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:96961.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">SEAC (2000). “Risk Assessment for the disposal of treated rendering plant ruminant condensate</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:96974.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">to agricultural land.” .</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:96999.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Sigurdson, C. J., E. S. Williams, et al. (1999). “Oral transmission and early lymphoid tropism of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:97012.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">chronic wasting disease PrPres in mule deer fawns (Odocoileus hemionus).” J</FONT></FONT><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">ournal of General</FONT></FONT></u></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:97025.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Virology </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">80</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(Pt 10): 2757-64.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:97050.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Sigurdson, S. (1991). Epidemiology of scrapie in Iceland with control measures. Sub acute</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:447pt;top:97061pt;width:43pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:97062.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">spongiform encephalopathies. Proceedings of an EC seminar, 12-14 November 1990</FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">: </FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">233-242.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:97088.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Simmons, M. M., S. J. Ryder, et al. (2000). “Scrapie surveillance in Great Britain: results of an</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:97100.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">abattoir survey, 1997/98.” V</FONT></FONT><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">eterinary Record </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">146</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(14): 391-5.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:97126.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Skarphedinsson, S., R. Johannsdottir, et al. (1994). “PrPsc in Icelandic sheep naturally infected</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:97138.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">with scrapie.” Ann N Y Acad Sci </FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">724</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">: 304-9.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:154pt;top:97149pt;width:83pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:97164.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Southern States Cooperative (2001). “Prices.”</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:97189.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Sparks Companies, I. (1999). Advanced Meat Recovery Systems - An Economic Analysis of the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:97202.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Proposed USDA Regulation. Mc Lean, VA.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:97227.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">SSC (1998). “Opinion on possible links between BSE and Organophosphates used as pesticides</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:97240.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">against ecto- and endoparasites in cattle - Report and opinion adopted at the Scientific Steering</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:97252.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Committee meeting of 25-26 June 1998.” .</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:97278.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">SSC (1998). “Opinion on the Safety of Gelatine adopted at the Scientific Steering Committee at</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:97290.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">its plenary meeting of 26-27 March 1998 following a public consultation on the preliminary</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:97303.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">opinion adopted on 19-20 February 1998 (Version updated on 3.04.98) - Background.”</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:97315.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">http://europa.eu.int/comm/food/fs/sc/ssc/out09_en.html</FONT></u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:97416.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:97452.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">References</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:292.70pt;top:98160.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:298.40pt;top:98160.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">113 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:97488.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">SSC (1999). “Opinion of the Scientific Steering Committee on the Human Exposure Risk (HER)</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:97500.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">via food with respect to BSE - Adopted on 10 December 1999.”</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:97513.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">http://europa.eu.int/comm/food/fs/sc/ssc/out67_en.html</FONT></u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:97538.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">SSC (1999). “Report on </FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">: </FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The Risk Born by Recycling Animal By-Products as Feed with Regard</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:97551.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">to Propagating TSE's in Non-ruminant Farmed Animals. Prepared by a Working Group for the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:97564.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Scientific Steering Committee as an input in the elaboration of the opinion on the same subject</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:97576.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">adopted on 16-17 September 1999.” http://europa.eu.int/com</FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">m/food/fs/sc/ssc/out59_en.html</FONT></u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:97602.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">SSC (2000). “Minutes of the Scientific Steering Committee Meeting of 20-21 January 2000.”</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:97614.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">http://europa.eu.int/comm/food/fs/sc/ssc/out72_en.html</FONT></u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:97639.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">SSC (2000). “Opinion - Oral exposure of Humans to the BSE agent : infective dose and species</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:152pt;top:97650pt;width:36pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:97652.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">barrier adopted by the SSC at its meeting of 13-14 April 2000 following a public consultation via</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:97665.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Internet between 6 and 27 March 2000.” http://europa.eu.int/com</FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">m/food/fs/sc/ssc/out79_en.pdf</FONT></u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:97690.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">SSC (2000). “Opinion - Oral exposure of Humans to the BSE agent : infective dose and species</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:97703.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">barrier adopted by the SSC at its meeting of 13-14 April 2000 following a public consultation via</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:97715.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Internet between 6 and 27 March 2000: Annex 2-An example of Risk Assessment on BSE</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:97728.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">transmission, (Diringer 1999).” http://europa.eu.int/com</FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">m/food/fs/sc/ssc/out79_en.pdf</FONT></u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">: 48.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:97753.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">SSC (2000). “Opinion of the Scientific Steering Committee on a method for assessing the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:97766.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Geographical BSE-Risk (GBR) of a country or region (up-date, January 2000).”</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:97779.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">http://europa.eu.int/comm/food/fs/sc/ssc/outcome_en.html</FONT></u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:97804.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">SSC (2000). “Opinion on the Safety of ruminant blood with respect to TSE risks adopted by the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:97817.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">SSC at its meeting of 13-14 April 2000.” http://europa.eu.int/com</FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">m/food/fs/sc/ssc/out74_en.pdf</FONT></u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:97842.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">SSC (2000). “Report on the Assessment of the Geographical BSE - Risk of USA (July 2000).”</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:152pt;top:97853pt;width:30pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:97854.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">http://europa.eu.int/comm/food/fs/sc/ssc/out137_en.pdf</FONT></u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:97880.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Stockman, S. (1913). “Scrapie: an obscure disease of sheep.” J</FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">ournal of Comparative Pathology</FONT></u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:97905.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Stringer, S. M., N. Hunter, et al. (1998). “A mathematical model of the dynamics of scrapie in a</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:97918.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">sheep flock.” Mathem</FONT></FONT><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">atical Biosciences </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">153</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(2): 79-98.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:97943.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Taylor, D. M. (1989). “Scrapie agent decontamination: implications for bovine spongiform</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:97956.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">encephalopathy.” V</FONT></FONT><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">eterinary Record </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">124</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(12): 291-2.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:97981.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Taylor, D. M. (1991). “Inactivation of BSE agent.” Dev</FONT></FONT><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">elopments in Biological Standardization</FONT></FONT></u></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:97994.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">75</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">: 97-102.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:98019.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Taylor, D. M. (1991). “Inactivation of the unconventional agents of scrapie, bovine spongiform</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:98032.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">encephalopathy and Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease.” J</FONT></FONT><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">ournal of Hospital Infection </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">18 Suppl A</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">: 141-6.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:98057.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Taylor, D. M. (1993). “Inactivation of SE agents.” B</FONT></FONT><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">ritish Medical Bulletin </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">49</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(4): 810-21.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:98082.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Taylor, D. M. and S. L. Woodgate (1997). “Bovine spongiform encephalopathy: the causal role of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:98095.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">ruminant-derived protein in cattle diets.” R</FONT></FONT><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">evue Scientifique et Technique </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">16</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(1): 187-98.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:98208.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:98244.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">References</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:292.70pt;top:98952.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:298.40pt;top:98952.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">114 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:98280.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Taylor, D. M., S. L. Woodgate, et al. (1995). “Inactivation of the bovine spongiform</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:98292.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">encephalopathy agent by rendering procedures.” V</FONT></FONT><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">eterinary Record </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">137</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(24): 605-10.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:98318.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Taylor, D. M., S. L. Woodgate, et al. (1997). “Effect of rendering procedures on the scrapie</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:98330.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">agent.” Veterinary </FONT></FONT><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Record </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">141</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(25): 643-9.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:98356.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Tegtmeier, C., J. Agerholm, et al. (2001). “Firs confirmed native case of bovine spongiform</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:98368.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">encephalopathy in Denmark.” V</FONT></FONT><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">et  Rec </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">148</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">: 51-52.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:98394.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Telling, G. C., M. Scott, et al. (1995). “Prion propagation in mice expressing human and chimeric</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:98406.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">PrP transgenes implicates the interaction of cellular PrP with another protein.” C</FONT></FONT><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">ell </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">83</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(1): 79-90.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:98431.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Thornton, I. and J. S. Webb (1979). “Geochemistry and health in the United Kingdom.”</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:98444.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London - Series B: Biological Sciences</FONT></FONT></u></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:98457.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">288</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(1026): 151-68.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:98482.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Tiwana, H., C. Wilson, et al. (1999). “Autoantibodies to brain components and antibodies to</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:98495.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Acinetobacter calcoaceticus are present in bovine spongiform encephalopathy.” I</FONT></FONT><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">nfection &</FONT></FONT></u></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:98507.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Immunity </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">67</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(12): 6591-5.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:98533.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">USDA, N. (2001). “Mink Annual Report.” .</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:98558.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">USDA-APHIS (2000). “BSE Surveillance.”</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:98571.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">http://www.aphis.usda.gov/oa/bse/bsesurvey.html#charts</FONT></u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:98596.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">USDA-APHIS (2000). “Fact heet: Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy.”</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:98609.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">http://www.aphis.usda.gov/oa/pubs/fsbse.pdf</FONT></u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:98634.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">USDA-APHIS (2000). Scrapie Project Final Rule. http://frwebgate.access.gpo.gov/cgi-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:98646.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">bin/getdoc.cgi?dbname=2000_register&docid=fr27jn00-3. </FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">9 CFR Parts 54 and 79: </FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Docket No.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:98659.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">99-067-2.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:98684.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">USDA-APHIS, V. S. (2000). “Comments submitted by US on the "draft report on the assessment</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:98697.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">of the Geographical BSE-risk of the USA.”</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:98722.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">USDA-FSIS (1997). “Livestock and carcass disposition review.”</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:98748.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">USDA-FSIS (1998). “Animal Reporting System (ADRS) livestock slaughtered in USDA  year</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:98760.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">1998.” http://www.fsis.usda.g</FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">ov/OPHS/adrsdata/1998adrs/98crm1.htm</FONT></u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:98786.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Venter, A. (2001). “Mad deer in Canadian wild?” T</FONT></FONT><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">rends in Microbiology </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">9</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(7): 312.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:98811.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Walker, K. D., W. D. Hueston, et al. (1991). “Comparison of bovine spongiform encephalopathy</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:98824.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">risk factors in the United States and Great Britain.” J</FONT></FONT><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">ournal of the American Veterinary Medical</FONT></FONT></u></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:98836.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Association </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">199</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(11): 1554-61.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:98862.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Warren, H. V. (1974). “Proceedings: Environmental lead: a survey of its possible physiological</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:98874.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">significance.” J</FONT></FONT><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">ournal of Biosocial Science </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">6</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(2): 223-38.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:99000.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:99036.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">References</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:292.70pt;top:99744.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:298.40pt;top:99744.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">115 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:99072.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Webb, C., J. Wilesmith, et al. (2001). “A stochastic model to estimate the prevalence of scrapie in</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:99084.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Great Britain using the results of an abattoir based survey.” Prev</FONT></FONT><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">entive Veterinary Medicine </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">51</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">:</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:99097.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">269-287.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:99122.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Weissmann, C. and A. Aguzzi (1999). “Perspectives: neurobiology. PrP's double causes trouble.”</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:99135.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Science </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">286</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(5441): 914-5.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:99160.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Wells, G. A., S. A. Hawkins, et al. (1998). “Preliminary observations on the pathogenesis of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:99173.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">experimental bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE): an update.” V</FONT></FONT><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">eterinary Record </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">142</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(5):</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:99186.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">103-6.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:99211.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Wells, G. A., S. A. Hawkins, et al. (1999). “Limited detection of sternal bone marrow infectivity</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:99223.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">in the clinical phase of experimental bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE).” V</FONT></FONT><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">eterinary</FONT></FONT></u></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:99236.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Record </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">144</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(11): 292-4.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:99261.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Wells, G. A., J. W. Wilesmith, et al. (1991). “Bovine spongiform encephalopathy: a</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:99274.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">neuropathological perspective.” Brain Patholog</FONT></FONT><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">y </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">1</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(2): 69-78.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:99299.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Westaway, D., V. Zuliani, et al. (1994). “Homozigocity for prion protein alleles encoding</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:99312.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">glutamine-171 renders sheep susceptible to natural scrapie.” Genes and Dev</FONT></FONT><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">elopment </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">8</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">: 959-969.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:99337.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">WHO (2001). “Fact Sheet: Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy.</FONT></FONT><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">” http://www.who.int/inf-</FONT></FONT></u></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:99350.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">fs/en/fact113.html</FONT></u><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:99375.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Wilesmith, J. W. (1994). “An epidemiologist's view of bovine spongiform encephalopathy.”</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:99388.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London - Series B: Biological Sciences</FONT></FONT></u></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:99401.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">343</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(1306): 357-61.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:99426.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Wilesmith, J. W., J. B. Ryan, et al. (1991). “Bovine spongiform encephalopathy: epidemiological</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:99438.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">studies on the origin.” V</FONT></FONT><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">eterinary Record </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">128</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(9): 199-203.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:99464.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Wilesmith, J. W., J. B. Ryan, et al. (1992). “Bovine spongiform encephalopathy: epidemiological</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:99476.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">features 1985 to 1990.” V</FONT></FONT><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">eterinary Record </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">130</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(5): 90-4.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:99502.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Wilesmith, J. W., G. A. Wells, et al. (1997). “A cohort study to examine maternally-associated</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:99514.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">risk factors for bovine spongiform encephalopathy.” V</FONT></FONT><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">eterinary Record </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">141</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(10): 239-43.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:99540.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Will, R., W. Matthews, et al. (1986). “A retrospective study of Creutzfeldt Jakob Disease in</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:99552.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">England and Wales 1970-1979.” Epidem</FONT></FONT><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">iology J. Neurol. Neurosurg. Psychiatry </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">49</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">: 749-755.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:99578.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Will, R. G., J. W. Ironside, et al. (1996). “A new variant of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease in the UK.”</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:99590.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Lancet </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">347</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(9006): 921-5.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:99616.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Will, R. G., M. Zeidler, et al. (2000). “Diagnosis of new variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease.”</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:99628.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Annals of Neurology </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">47</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(5): 575-82.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:99654.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Williams, E. S. and S. Young (1980). “Chronic wasting disease of captive mule deer: a</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:99666.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">spongiform encephalopathy.” J</FONT></FONT><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">ournal of Wildlife Diseases </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">16</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(1): 89-98.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:99691.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Williams, E. S. and S. Young (1982). “Spongiform encephalopathy of Rocky Mountain elk.”</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:99704.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Journal of Wildlife Diseases </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">18</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(4): 465-71.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
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<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:99828.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">References</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:292.70pt;top:100536.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:298.40pt;top:100536.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">116 -</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:99876.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Wineland, N. E., L. A. Detwiler, et al. (1998). “Epidemiologic analysis of reported scrapie in</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:99889.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">sheep in the United States: 1,117 cases (1947-1992).” J</FONT></FONT><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">ournal of the American Veterinary</FONT></FONT></u></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:99902.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Medical Association </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">212</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(5): 713-8.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:99927.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Woolhouse, M. E. and R. M. Anderson (1997). “Understanding the epidemiology of BSE.”</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:99940.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Trends in Microbiology </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">5</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(11): 421-4.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:99965.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Woolhouse, M. E., S. M. Stringer, et al. (1998). “Epidemiology and control of scrapie within a</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:99978.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">sheep flock.” Proceeding</FONT></FONT><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">s of the Royal Society of London - Series B: Biological Sciences</FONT></FONT></u></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:99990.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">265</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(1402): 1205-10.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:100015.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Zigas, V. and D. C. Gajdusek (1957). “Kuru: clinical study of a new syndrome resembling</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:100028.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">paralysis agitans in native of the Eastern Highlands of Australian New Guinea.” Medical J</FONT></FONT><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">ournal</FONT></FONT></u></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.05pt;top:100041.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><u><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">of Australia </FONT></FONT></u><FONT COLOR="000000"><b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">2</FONT></b><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">: 745-754.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
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