Document ID: FAA-2013-0259-0179
Agency: faa
Document Type: Notice
Title: Waiver of Acceptable Risk Limit for Launch: Space Exploration Technologies Corp.
Posted Date: 2013-08-27T04:00Z

[Federal Register Volume 78, Number 166 (Tuesday, August 27, 2013)]
[Notices]
[Pages 52998-52999]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Printing Office [www.gpo.gov]
[FR Doc No: 2013-20726]

[[Page 52998]]

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DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION

Federal Aviation Administration

Waiver to Space Exploration Technologies Corporation of 
Acceptable Risk Limit for Launch

AGENCY: Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), DOT.

ACTION: Notice of waiver.

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SUMMARY: This notice concerns a petition for waiver submitted to the 
Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) by Space Exploration Technologies 
Corporation (SpaceX) to waive a limit that the risk to the public from 
the launch of an expendable launch vehicle not exceed an expected 
average number of 0.00003 casualties (Ec <= 30 x 
10-6) from far field blast overpressure. The FAA grants the 
petition, but limits collective risk to an expected average number of 
0.0001 casualties.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: For technical questions concerning 
this waiver, contact Charles P. Brinkman, Licensing Program Lead, 
Commercial Space Transportation--Licensing and Evaluation Division, 800 
Independence Avenue SW., Washington, DC 20591; telephone: (202) 267-
7715; email: Phil.Brinkman@faa.gov. For legal questions concerning this 
waiver, contact Laura Montgomery, Manager, Space Law Branch, AGC-250, 
Office of the Chief Counsel, Regulations Division, Federal Aviation 
Administration, 800 Independence Avenue SW., Washington, DC 20591; 
telephone (202) 267-3150; email: Laura.Montgomery@faa.gov.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: 

Background

    On July 10, 2013, SpaceX submitted a petition to the FAA's Office 
of Commercial Space Transportation (AST) requesting a waiver for a 
launch from Vandenberg Air Force Base (VAFB) of a Falcon 9 Version 1.1 
(v1.1) launch vehicle carrying, a Canadian scientific and research 
satellite called Cassiope, and several small secondary payloads. SpaceX 
requested a waiver of 14 CFR 417.107(b)(1), which prohibits the launch 
of an expendable launch vehicle if the total expected average number of 
casualties (Ec) for the launch exceeds 0.00003 for risk from 
far field blast overpressure.
    The FAA licenses the launch of a launch vehicle and reentry of a 
reentry vehicle under authority granted to the Secretary of 
Transportation in the Commercial Space Launch Act of 1984, as amended 
and re-codified by 51 U.S.C. Subtitle V, chapter 509 (Chapter 509), and 
delegated to the FAA Administrator and the Associate Administrator for 
Commercial Space Transportation, who exercises licensing authority 
under Chapter 509.
    SpaceX is a private commercial space flight company. It has 
initiated activities with the U.S. Air Force's EELV Program to become a 
certified launch service provider for National Security space missions. 
In addition, SpaceX launches commercial payloads such as Cassiope.
    This petition for waiver addresses an upcoming flight that SpaceX 
plans to undertake transporting the Cassiope satellite and several 
small secondary payloads to earth orbit. This will be the first launch 
by SpaceX from VAFB. It will also be the first flight of the Falcon 9 
v1.1 vehicle, which is larger and has greater thrust and payload 
capacity than SpaceX's Falcon 9 vehicle. SpaceX's Falcon 9 v1.1 launch 
vehicle will launch from VAFB and place the Cassiope satellite into a 
near-polar orbit. The launch vehicle will also carry five secondary 
payloads to the same orbit. The first stage will coast after stage 
separation, and then perform an experimental burn with three engines to 
reduce the entry velocity just prior to entry. Prior to landing in the 
water, it will perform a second experimental burn with one engine to 
impact the water with minimal velocity. The second stage will coast and 
then perform an experimental burn to depletion.
    The preliminary calculation of Ec for far field blast 
overpressure shows that the launch would exceed the 0.00003 limit 
imposed by section 417.107(b)(1) under anticipated weather conditions 
for a daytime launch in September. Atmospheric conditions at the launch 
site during the anticipated time of launch increase the far field blast 
overpressure risk. The presence of inversion layers at VAFB is common, 
and results in the reflection of shock waves from an explosion. This 
reflection of shock waves can cause greater damage than would otherwise 
be caused without the reflection from the inversion layer. Chances of 
advantageous weather conditions during the day in September that would 
allow a launch that meets the FAA's risk requirements are virtually 
zero percent.\1\
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    \1\ In calculating this percentage, the FAA relies on the 
standard model developed by the 30th Space Wing from observation of 
Mission Flight Control Officer response times to initiate flight 
destruction of a malfunctioning launch vehicle. The 30th Space Wing 
uses this standard time for its analysis.
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    The Falcon 9 v1.1 is a new launch vehicle. The U.S. Air Force has 
determined that its overall failure probability is nearly fifty percent 
for each of the first two launches. AST has determined that the Air 
Force's calculation of probability of failure satisfies the 
requirements in part 417. Weather conditions during the day in 
September are likely to be unfavorable and delays may last for days. 
SpaceX, therefore, seeks a waiver of this risk requirement.

Waiver Criteria

    Chapter 509 allows the FAA to waive a license requirement if the 
waiver (1) will not jeopardize public health and safety, safety of 
property; (2) will not jeopardize national security and foreign policy 
interests of the United States; and (3) will be in the public interest. 
51 U.S.C. 50905(b)(3) (2011); 14 CFR 404.5(b) (2011).

Sections 417.107(b)(1) Waiver Petition

    Section 417.107(b)(1) prohibits the launch of a launch vehicle if 
the Ec for the flight exceeds 0.00003 for any of the 
following three risks: (1) Impacting inert and impacting explosive 
debris, (2) toxic release, and (3) far field blast overpressure. For 
reasons described below, the FAA waives the restrictions in section 
417.107(b)(1) to allow SpaceX to conduct a flight with the 
Ec resulting from far field blast overpressure exceeding 
0.00003 as long as total Ec for the three hazards combined 
does not exceed 0.0001. The FAA is not waiving the Ec 
requirement for impacting inert and impacting explosive debris or for 
toxic release.

Launch of the Falcon 9 Vehicle

    The FAA waives the far field overpressure risk requirement of 
section 417.107(b)(1) because the Falcon 9 v1.1 launch will not 
jeopardize public health and safety or safety of property, a national 
security or foreign policy interest of the United States, and is in the 
public interest.

i. Public Health and Safety and Safety of Property

    The Falcon 9 v1.1 launch is the first launch of the v1.1 vehicle, 
and the first SpaceX launch from VAFB. Although the risk from far field 
blast overpressure is likely to exceed 0.00003, the estimated risks for 
debris and toxic release are very low. Based on preliminary 
calculations performed by the U.S. Air Force for SpaceX, the collective 
risk to the public from the Falcon 9 v1.1 launch will be less than 
0.0001 approximately forty percent of the time during September.\2\ 
NASA, the

[[Page 52999]]

U.S. Air Force and other U.S. National Test ranges use 0.0001 as the 
expected casualty limit across all three hazards as their criterion See 
U.S. Air Force Instruction 91-217, Space Safety and Mishap Prevention 
Program (2010); NASA Procedural Requirements 8715.5 Rev A, Range Flight 
Safety Program (2010); Range Commanders Council (RCC) Standard 321-10, 
Common Risk Criteria Standards for National Test Ranges (2010). If the 
Falcon 9 v1.1's collective risk were to exceed 0.0001 expected 
casualties, SpaceX would not launch until conditions improved 
sufficiently for the risk of the launch to satisfy the limits allowed 
by the waiver.
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    \2\ The FAA assumes the standard model developed by the 30th 
Space Wing from observation of Mission Flight Control Officer 
response times to initiate flight destruction of a malfunctioning 
launch vehicle. The 30th Space Wing uses this standard time for its 
analysis.
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    The increase in the Ec for the first launch of the 
Falcon 9 v1.1 vehicle from VAFB is largely attributable to two factors. 
First, the launch will take place from VAFB. VAFB is located in 
California, and frequently experiences unique weather conditions that 
exacerbate far field blast overpressure from a launch. An inversion 
layer, an atmospheric region with a warmer temperature than the region 
below, is common much of the year at VAFB. The presence of an inversion 
layer could increase damage caused by an explosion because an inversion 
layer may reflect the shock wave from an explosion back towards the 
ground. By reflecting the shock wave back towards the ground, 
surrounding buildings, and particularly glass windows, may experience 
greater pressure, which could cause greater glass breakage. Second, the 
estimated probability of failure to the Falcon 9 v1.1 is high because 
it is a new launch vehicle. There is no way to reduce this estimated 
failure probability, which is derived from the historically high number 
of launch failures in new vehicles. This probability of failure is one 
of the most critical variables in the Ec calculations.
    This waiver for the risk from far field blast overpressure is 
consistent with the Air Force total risk threshold for Ec of 
100 x 10-6 for risks from debris, toxic release, and far 
field blast overpressure combined. The current Ec 
requirement for U.S. Government launches from U.S. National Test Ranges 
is 0.0001, which, because it comprises debris, toxics, and 
overpressure, means that the federal launch ranges permit the risk 
attributable to overpressure to exceed the FAA's risk threshold. See 
Air Force Instruction 91-217, Space Safety and Mishap Prevention 
Program (2010). The U.S. Air Force approved a government launch of a 
Titan, where the risk ranged from 145 to 317 in a million. Dept. of the 
Air Force Memorandum, Overflight Risk Exceedance Waiver for Titan IV B-
30 Mission, (Apr. 4, 2005). Additionally, the FAA granted a waiver on 
April 17, 2012, for risk from debris up to 0.000130 for a Falcon 9 
launch from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. Waiver of Acceptable Risk 
Restriction for Launch and Reentry, Notice of Waiver, 77 FR 24556 
(April 24, 2012). Again, risk was largely a result of a relatively high 
failure probability that is unavoidably attached to a new launch 
vehicle. Based on the fact that risk will remain very low, and will be 
limited to the requirement for government launches (Ec of 
less than 0.0001), granting a waiver in this case would not jeopardize 
public health and safety or safety of property.

ii. National Security and Foreign Policy Implications

    The FAA has identified no national security or foreign policy 
implications associated with granting this waiver.

iii. Public Interest

    The waiver is consistent with the public interest goals of Chapter 
509. Three of the public policy goals of Chapter 509 are: (1) To 
promote economic growth and entrepreneurial activity through use of the 
space environment; (2) to encourage the United States private sector to 
provide launch and reentry vehicles and associated services; and (3) to 
facilitate the strengthening and expansion of the United States space 
transportation infrastructure to support the full range of United 
States space-related activities. See 51 U.S.C. 50901(b)(1), (2), (4).
    With a requirement that Ec be less than 0.00003 for far 
field blast overpressure, launch availability for the Western Range is 
estimated to be virtually zero percent due to atmospheric conditions at 
the launch site and the high failure probability necessarily assigned 
to a new launch vehicle. This would certainly make the launch site 
impractical for commercial launches, at least of new launch vehicles. 
Granting a limited waiver for risk from far field blast overpressure as 
long as the risk for all three risks does not exceed 100 x 
10-6 increases launch availability for the first launch of 
Falcon 9 v1.1 at VAFB to approximately forty percent for September, 
depending on detailed analytical assumptions concerning flight 
termination action. VAFB is the most suitable U.S. launch facility for 
supporting the launches of satellites by large vehicles into polar 
orbits. Granting this waiver makes VAFB a viable site for commercial 
launches, helping to sustain the launch capacity for U.S. launch 
providers, thereby supporting the industrial base and lowering overall 
launch costs for commercial customers and the U.S. Government.
    Additionally, the proposed launch is consistent with the principles 
and goals of the 2010 National Space Policy, which emphasizes the 
importance of developing a robust domestic commercial space 
transportation industry and acquiring commercial space services to meet 
United States Government requirements. The development of commercial 
launch service providers is crucial because, as noted in the 2010 
National Space Policy, United States access to space depends in the 
first instance on launch capabilities. To that end, SpaceX has applied 
to the U.S. Air Force's EELV Program to become a certified launch 
service provider for National Security space missions. In accordance 
with the Air Force's approved New Entrant Certification Guide, SpaceX 
is required to demonstrate its compliance with EELV program 
requirements, including successfully demonstrating launches of the 
launch vehicle being proposed for certification. In the certification 
approach being taken under the New Entrant Certification Guide, SpaceX 
is required to successfully launch three Falcon 9 launch vehicles, the 
first of which is planned to be the Cassiope mission from VAFB. Each 
flight of the Falcon 9 builds heritage for this vehicle, which will be 
used by the United States Government. NASA has already contracted with 
SpaceX for Cargo Resupply Services missions from CCAFS using Falcon 9 
v1.1. Accordingly, proceeding with the proposed launch is in the public 
interest.

    Issued in Washington, DC, on August 19, 2013.
Kenneth Wong,
Licensing and Evaluation Division Manager, Commercial Space 
Transportation.
[FR Doc. 2013-20726 Filed 8-26-13; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 4910-13-P