Document ID: EPA-R09-OAR-2011-0622-0001
Agency: epa
Document Type: Proposed Rule
Title: Approval of Air Quality Implementation Plans: California; South Coast; Attainment Plan for 1997 8-hour Ozone Standard
Posted Date: 2011-09-16T04:00Z

[Federal Register Volume 76, Number 180 (Friday, September 16, 2011)]
[Proposed Rules]
[Pages 57872-57896]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Printing Office [www.gpo.gov]
[FR Doc No: 2011-23659]

[[Page 57871]]

Vol. 76

Friday,

No. 180

September 16, 2011

Part IV

Environmental Protection Agency

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40 CFR Part 52

Approval of Air Quality Implementation Plans; California; South Coast; 
Attainment Plan for 1997 8-Hour Ozone Standard; Proposed Rule

  Federal Register / Vol. 76 , No. 180 / Friday, September 16, 2011 / 
Proposed Rules  

[[Page 57872]]

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ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY

40 CFR Part 52

[EPA-R09-OAR-2011-0622; FRL-9464-8]

Approval of Air Quality Implementation Plans; California; South 
Coast; Attainment Plan for 1997 8-Hour Ozone Standard

AGENCY: Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).

ACTION: Proposed rule.

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SUMMARY: EPA is proposing to approve state implementation plan (SIP) 
revisions submitted by California to provide for attainment of the 1997 
8-hour ozone national ambient air quality standards in the Los Angeles-
South Coast Area (South Coast). These SIP revisions are the South Coast 
2007 Air Quality Management Plan (South Coast 2007 AQMP) (revised 2011) 
and South Coast-related portions of the 2007 State Strategy (revised 
2009 and 2011). EPA is proposing to approve the emissions inventories, 
reasonably available control measures, provisions for transportation 
control strategies and measures, reasonable further progress (RFP) and 
attainment demonstrations, transportation conformity motor vehicle 
emissions budgets for all RFP milestone years and the attainment year, 
contingency measures for failure to make RFP or attain, and Clean Air 
Act section 182(e)(5) new technologies provisions and associated 
commitment to adopt contingency measures. EPA is also proposing to 
approve commitments to measures and reductions by the South Coast Air 
Quality Management District and the California Air Resources Board. 
Simultaneously and in the alternative, EPA is proposing to disapprove 
the SIP with respect to certain provisions for transportation control 
strategies and measures pending resolution of petitions filed before 
the 9th Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals in Association of Irritated 
Residents v. EPA, 632 F.3d 584 (9th Cir. 2011).

DATES: Any comments must be submitted by October 17, 2011.

ADDRESSES: Submit comments, identified by docket number EPA-R09-OAR-
2011-0622, by one of the following methods:
     Federal eRulemaking Portal: http://www.regulations.gov. 
Follow the on-line instructions.
     E-mail: tax.wienke@epa.gov.
     Mail or deliver: Marty Robin, Office of Air Planning (AIR-
2), U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Region IX, 75 Hawthorne 
Street, San Francisco, CA 94105.
    Instructions: All comments will be included in the public docket 
without change and may be made available online at http://www.regulations.gov, including any personal information provided, 
unless the comment includes Confidential Business Information (CBI) or 
other information whose disclosure is restricted by statute. 
Information that you consider CBI or otherwise protected should be 
clearly identified as such and should not be submitted through http://www.regulations.gov or e-mail. The http://www.regulations.gov Web site 
is an ``anonymous access'' system, and EPA will not know your identity 
or contact information unless you provide it in the body of your 
comment. If you send e-mail directly to EPA, your e-mail address will 
be automatically captured and included as part of the public comment. 
If EPA cannot read your comments due to technical difficulties and 
cannot contact you for clarification, EPA may not be able to consider 
your comment.
    Docket: The index to the docket for this action is available 
electronically on the http://www.regulations.gov Web site and in hard 
copy at EPA Region IX, 75 Hawthorne Street, San Francisco, California, 
94105. While all documents in the docket are listed in the index, some 
information may be publicly available only at the hard copy location 
(e.g., copyrighted material), and some may not be publicly available at 
either location (e.g., CBI). To inspect the hard copy materials, please 
schedule an appointment during normal business hours with the contact 
listed in the FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT section below.
    Copies of the SIP materials are also available for inspection at 
the following locations:
     California Air Resources Board, 1001 I Street, Sacramento, 
California 95812, and
     South Coast Air Quality Management District, 21865 E. 
Copley Drive, Diamond Bar, California 91765.

The SIP materials are also electronically available at: http://aqmd.gov/aqmp/07aqmp/index.html and http://www.arb.ca.gov/planning/sip/sip.htm.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Wienke Tax, Air Planning Office (AIR-
2), U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Region IX, (415) 947-4192, 
tax.wienke@epa.gov.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Throughout this document, ``we,'' ``us'' and 
``our'' refer to EPA.

Table of Contents

I. The 8-Hour Ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) 
and the South Coast Nonattainment Area
    A. Background on the 8-Hour Ozone NAAQS
    B. The South Coast 8-Hour Ozone Nonattainment Area
II. CAA and Regulatory Requirements for Ozone Nonattainment SIPs
III. California's State Implementation Plan Submittals To Address 8-
Hour Ozone Nonattainment in the South Coast Nonattainment Area
    A. California's SIP Submittals
    B. CAA Procedural and Administrative Requirements for SIP 
Submissions
IV. Review of the South Coast 2007 AQMP and the South Coast Portion 
of the Revised 2007 State Strategy
    A. Emission Inventories
    B. Reasonably Available Control Measures (RACM) Demonstration 
and Control Strategy
    C. Attainment Demonstration
    D. Reasonable Further Progress Demonstration
    E. Transportation Control Strategies and Transportation Control 
Measures and Vehicle Miles Travelled Offset To Offset Emissions 
Increases From VMT Increases, To Provide for RFP and Attainment
    F. Contingency Measures
    G. Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets for Transportation Conformity
    H. Other Clean Air Act Requirements Applicable to Extreme Ozone 
Nonattainment Areas
V. EPA's Proposed Actions
VI. Statutory and Executive Order Reviews

I. The 8-Hour Ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) and 
the South Coast Nonattainment Area

A. Background on the 8-Hour Ozone NAAQS

    Ground-level ozone is formed when oxides of nitrogen 
(NOX) and volatile organic compounds (VOC) react in the 
presence of sunlight.\1\ These two pollutants, referred to as ozone 
precursors, are emitted by many types of pollution sources, including 
on- and off-road motor vehicles and engines, power plants and 
industrial facilities, and smaller area sources such as lawn and garden 
equipment and paints.
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    \1\ California plans sometimes use the term Reactive Organic 
Gases (ROG) for VOC. These terms are essentially synonymous. For 
simplicity, we use the term VOC herein to mean either VOC or ROG.
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    Scientific evidence indicates that adverse public health effects 
occur following exposure to ozone, particularly in children and adults 
with lung disease. Breathing air containing ozone can reduce lung 
function and inflame airways, which can increase respiratory symptoms 
and aggravate asthma or other lung diseases. Ozone

[[Page 57873]]

exposure also has been associated with increased susceptibility to 
respiratory infections, medication use, doctor visits, and emergency 
department visits and hospital admissions for individuals with lung 
disease. Ozone exposure also increases the risk of premature death from 
heart or lung disease. Children are at increased risk from exposure to 
ozone because their lungs are still developing and they are more likely 
to be active outdoors, which increases their exposure. See ``Fact 
Sheet, Proposal To Revise the National Ambient Air Quality Standards 
for Ozone,'' January 6, 2010 and 75 FR 2938 (January 19, 2010).
    In 1979, under section 109 of the CAA, EPA established primary and 
secondary national ambient air quality standards (NAAQS or standard) 
for ozone at 0.12 parts per million (ppm) averaged over a 1-hour 
period. See 44 FR 8202 (February 8, 1979).
    On July 18, 1997, EPA revised the primary and secondary NAAQS for 
ozone to set the acceptable level of ozone in the ambient air at 0.08 
ppm, averaged over an 8-hour period. See 62 FR 38856 (July 18, 
1997).\2\ EPA set the 8-hour ozone standard based on scientific 
evidence demonstrating that ozone causes adverse health effects at 
lower concentrations and over longer periods of time than was 
understood when the pre-existing 1-hour ozone standard was set. EPA 
determined that the 8-hour standard would be more protective of human 
health, especially children and adults who are active outdoors, and 
individuals with a pre-existing respiratory disease, such as asthma.
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    \2\ In March 2008, EPA completed another review of the primary 
and secondary ozone standards and tightened them further by lowering 
the level for both to 0.075 ppm. 73 FR 16436 (March 27, 2008).
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B. The South Coast 8-Hour Ozone Nonattainment Area

    Following promulgation of a new or revised NAAQS, EPA is required 
by the Clean Air Act (CAA) to designate areas throughout the nation as 
attaining or not attaining the NAAQS. On April 15, 2004, EPA designated 
the South Coast as nonattainment for the 1997 8-hour ozone standard and 
classified it as ``severe-17'' under CAA section 181(a)(1) and 40 CFR 
51.903(a), Table 1. See 69 FR 23858 at 23888-89 (April 30, 2004) and 40 
CFR 81.305. The designations and classifications became effective on 
June 15, 2004.
    In 2007, California requested that EPA reclassify the South Coast 
from ``severe-17'' to ``extreme'' nonattainment for the 1997 8-hour 
ozone standard under CAA section 181(b)(3).\3\ We granted California's 
request on May 5, 2010 and reclassified the South Coast to extreme 
nonattainment for the 1997 8-hour ozone standard effective June 4, 
2010. See 75 FR 24409. The South Coast 2007 AQMP was developed to 
address the extreme area planning requirements for the 1997 8-hour 
ozone standard in the CAA and EPA's implementing regulations and thus 
California did not need to make additional submittals in response to 
this reclassification.
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    \3\ See SCAQMD Governing Board Resolution No. 07-9 (June 1, 
2007), p. 12; CARB Resolution No. 07-41 (September 27, 2007), p. 8; 
and letter, James Goldstene, Executive Officer, CARB to Wayne 
Nastri, Regional Administrator, EPA Region 9, November 28, 2007.
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    The South Coast 8-hour ozone nonattainment area is home to about 17 
million people, has a diverse economic base, and contains one of the 
highest-volume port areas in the world. For a precise description of 
the geographic boundaries of the South Coast 8-hour ozone nonattainment 
area, see 40 CFR 81.305. The local air district with primary 
responsibility for developing a plan to attain the 1997 8-hour ozone 
NAAQS in this area is the South Coast Air Quality Management District 
(District or SCAQMD).
    Ambient 8-hour ozone levels in the South Coast are well above the 
1997 8-hour ozone NAAQS. The maximum design value for the area, based 
on monitored readings at the Crestline monitor, is 0.112 ppm for the 
2008-2010 period.\4\
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    \4\ See EPA, Air Quality System Quick Look Report dated April 
14, 2011 in the docket for today's action. A design value is an 
ambient concentration calculated using a specific methodology to 
evaluate monitored air quality data and is used to determine whether 
an area's air quality is meeting a NAAQS. The methodology for 
calculating design values for the 8-hour ozone NAAQS is found in 40 
CFR part 50, Appendix I. This value is preliminary because while 
2008 and 2009 data are complete, validated, and certified, 2010 data 
have not yet been certified by the District.
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II. CAA and Regulatory Requirements for Ozone Nonattainment SIPs

    States must implement the 1997 8-hour ozone standard under Title 1, 
Part D of the CAA, which includes section 172, ``Nonattainment plan 
provisions,'' and subpart 2, ``Additional Provisions for Ozone 
Nonattainment Areas'' (sections 181-185).
    In order to assist states in developing effective plans to address 
their ozone nonattainment problem, EPA issued the 8-hour ozone 
implementation rule. This rule was finalized in two phases. The first 
phase of the rule addresses classifications for the 1997 8-hour ozone 
standard, applicable attainment dates for the various classifications, 
and the timing of emissions reductions needed for attainment. See 69 FR 
23951 (April 30, 2004). The second phase addresses SIP submittal dates 
and the requirements for reasonably available control technology and 
measures (RACT and RACM), reasonable further progress (RFP), modeling 
and attainment demonstrations, contingency measures, and new source 
review. See 70 FR 71612 (November 29, 2005). The rule is codified at 40 
CFR part 51, subpart X.\5\ We discuss each of these CAA and regulatory 
requirements for 8-hour ozone nonattainment plans in more detail below.
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    \5\ EPA has revised or proposed to revise several elements of 
the 8-hour ozone implementation rule since its initial promulgation 
in 2004. See, e.g., 74 FR 2936 (January 16, 2009); 75 FR 51960 
(August 24, 2010); and 75 FR 80420 (December 22, 2010). None of 
these revisions affect any provision of the rule that is applicable 
to EPA's proposed actions on the South Coast 2007 8-Hour Ozone Plan.
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III. California's State Implementation Plan Submittals To Address 8-
Hour Ozone Nonattainment in the South Coast Nonattainment Area

A. California's SIP Submittals

    Designation of an area as nonattainment starts the process for a 
state to develop and submit to EPA a State implementation plan (SIP) 
providing for attainment of the NAAQS under title 1, part D of the CAA. 
For 8-hour ozone areas designated as nonattainment effective June 15, 
2004, this attainment SIP was due by June 15, 2007. See CAA 172(b) and 
40 CFR 51.908(a) and 51.910.
    California has made five SIP submittals to address the CAA's 
planning requirements for attaining the 1997 8-hour ozone standard in 
the South Coast nonattainment area. We refer to these submittals 
collectively as ``the South Coast 2007 8-Hour Ozone SIP'' or ``the 
South Coast 2007 Ozone SIP.'' The two principal ones are the District's 
2007 8-Hour Ozone Plan (South Coast 2007 AQMP) and the California Air 
Resources Board's (CARB's) State Strategy for California's 2007 State 
Implementation Plan (2007 State Strategy).
1. 2007 South Coast AQMP
    The ``Final 2007 Air Quality Management Plan, June 2007'' (South 
Coast 2007 AQMP) was adopted by the District on June 1, 2007 and 
submitted to CARB on October 24, 2007.6 7 On

[[Page 57874]]

November 28, 2007, CARB submitted the South Coast 2007 AQMP to EPA. The 
South Coast 2007 AQMP includes an 8-hour ozone attainment demonstration 
for the South Coast nonattainment area, commitments by the SCAQMD to 
adopt control measures to achieve emissions reductions from sources 
under its jurisdiction (primarily stationary sources), and motor 
vehicle emissions budgets (budgets) used for transportation conformity 
purposes. The attainment demonstration includes air quality modeling, 
an analysis of CAA section 172 reasonably available control measures 
(RACM), base year and projected year emissions inventories, and 
contingency measures.
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    \6\ See November 28, 2007 letter to Wayne Nastri, Regional 
Administrator, EPA Region 9, from James N. Goldstene, Executive 
Officer, CARB, with enclosures.
    \7\ The South Coast 2007 AQMP is the first South Coast Plan to 
address the 8-hour ozone NAAQS. We have previously acted on numerous 
South Coast air quality plans for ozone, PM-10, carbon monoxide, and 
NO2, such as the 1997/1999 AQMP. We approved the ozone 
portion of the 1997 South Coast AQMP, as amended in 1999, on April 
10, 2000 (see 65 FR 18903). Our most recent action on a SIP 
addressing the CAA requirements for the South Coast ozone 
nonattainment area was our partial approval and partial disapproval 
of the 2003 AQMP, which addressed 1-hour ozone (see 74 FR 10176, 
March 10, 2009). Our 2009 final action was challenged in the Ninth 
Circuit Court of Appeals, which published an opinion remanding 
certain aspects of EPA's action for further action consistent with 
the opinion. See Association of Irritated Residents v. EPA, 632 F.3d 
584 (9th Cir. 2011). The issues in dispute relate to the 
consequences of an EPA disapproval of a SIP submittal, the adequacy 
of EPA's evaluation of a particular control measure from the 2003 
State Strategy, and the rationale for EPA's approval of the State's 
submittal as meeting the requirements of CAA section 182(d)(1)(A) 
(TCMs to offset growth in emissions from growth in VMT) in the South 
Coast. EPA has sought rehearing on some of the issues, and the 
mandate in this case has not yet been issued pending action by the 
court on the petition for rehearing.
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    In today's proposal, we are evaluating only those portions of the 
South Coast 2007 AQMP and its revisions that are relevant to attainment 
of the 1997 8-hour ozone standard in the South Coast.
2. CARB 2007 State Strategy
    To demonstrate attainment, the South Coast 2007 AQMP relies to a 
large extent on measures and commitments in CARB's 2007 State Strategy. 
The 2007 State Strategy was adopted by CARB on September 27, 2007 and 
submitted to EPA on November 16, 2007.\8\ It describes CARB's overall 
approach to addressing, in conjunction with local plans, attainment of 
both the 1997 8-hour ozone and fine particulate (PM2.5) 
NAAQS not only in the South Coast nonattainment area but also in the 
San Joaquin Valley and the Sacramento area. It also includes CARB's 
commitments to propose 15 defined State measures \9\ and to obtain 
specific amounts of aggregate emissions reductions of NOX 
and VOC emissions in the South Coast from sources under the State's 
jurisdiction, primarily on- and off-road motor vehicles and engines. In 
addition, it contains an RFP demonstration and contingency measures for 
the South Coast 8-hour ozone nonattainment area.
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    \8\ See CARB Resolution No. 07-28, September 27, 2007 with 
attachments and letter from James N. Goldstene, Executive Officer, 
CARB, to Wayne Nastri, Regional Administrator, EPA Region 9, 
November 16, 2007 with enclosures.
    \9\ The 2007 State Strategy also includes measures to be 
implemented by the California Bureau of Automotive Repair (Smog 
Check improvements) and the California Department of Pesticide 
Regulation (VOC reductions from pesticide use). See 2007 State 
Strategy, pp. 64-65 and CARB Resolution 7-28, Attachment B, p. 8.
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    On August 12, 2009, CARB submitted the ``Status Report on the State 
Strategy for California's 2007 State Implementation Plan (SIP) and 
Proposed Revision to the SIP Reflecting Implementation of the 2007 
State Strategy,'' dated March 24, 2009 and adopted April 24, 2009 
(``2009 State Strategy Status Report'').\10\ This submittal updated the 
2007 State Strategy to reflect its implementation during 2007 and 2008.
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    \10\ See CARB Resolution No. 09-34, April 24, 2009 and letter, 
James N. Goldstene, Executive Officer, CARB, to Wayne Nastri, 
Regional Administrator, EPA Region 9, August 12, 2009 with 
enclosures. Only pages 11-27 of the 2009 State Strategy Status 
Report are submitted as a SIP revision. The balance of the report is 
for informational purposes only. See Attachment A to CARB Resolution 
No. 09-34.
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    In today's proposal, we are evaluating only those portions of the 
2007 State Strategy and its revisions that are relevant to attainment 
of the 1997 8-hour ozone standard in the South Coast.
3. CARB's 2011 SIP Revisions
    On May 18, 2011, CARB submitted a SIP revision entitled Progress 
Report on Implementation of PM2.5 State Implementation Plans 
(SIP) for the South Coast and San Joaquin Valley Air Basins and 
Proposed SIP Revisions, dated March 29, 2011 and adopted April 28, 
2011, together with the adopting resolution and other supporting 
documentation 11 12 (2011 Progress Report). Appendix F of 
this 2011 Progress Report provides revised control measure commitments 
and a revised rule implementation schedule for the South Coast 2007 
AQMP.\13\ We refer to this SIP revision as the ``2011 Progress Report, 
Appendix F.''
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    \11\ See CARB Board Resolution 11-24, April 28, 2011 and letter, 
James N. Goldstene, Executive Officer, CARB, to Jared Blumenfeld, 
Regional Administrator, EPA Region 9, May 18, 2011 with enclosures.
    \12\ Only Appendices B, C, and D of the 2011 Progress Report are 
submitted as a SIP revision. The balance of the report is for 
informational purposes only. See letter, James Goldstene, Executive 
Officer, CARB, to Jared Blumenfeld, Regional Administrator, EPA 
Region 9, May 18, 2011.
    \13\ See letter, Lynn Terry, Deputy Executive Officer, CARB, to 
Jared Blumenfeld, Regional Administrator, EPA Region 9, dated May 
19, 2011, and enclosed ARB Board Resolution 11-24.
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    On July 29, 2011, CARB submitted the ``8-Hour Ozone State 
Implementation Plan Revisions and Technical Revisions to the 
PM2.5 State Implementation Plan Transportation Conformity 
Budgets for the South Coast and San Joaquin Valley Air Basins,'' dated 
June 20, 2011 and adopted July 21, 2011 (2011 Ozone SIP Revision).\14\ 
This SIP revision updates the 2007 State Strategy and 2009 State 
Strategy Status Report. Specifically, it updates the emissions 
inventories, RFP demonstration, contingency measures, and 
transportation conformity budgets for the South Coast to reflect rule 
adoptions and improvements to emissions estimates. CARB provided 
supplemental documentation for the 2011 Ozone SIP Revision on August 
10, 2011 (2011 Ozone SIP Supplement).\15\
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    \14\ See CARB Resolution 11-22, July 21, 2011 and letter, James 
N. Goldstene, Executive Officer, CARB, to Jared Blumenfeld, Regional 
Administrator, EPA Region 9, July 29, 2011 with enclosures. Only 
Appendix A of the 2011 Ozone SIP Revision is submitted as a SIP 
revision. The balance of the report is for informational purposes 
only.
    \15\ See letter, Lynn Terry, Executive Officer, CARB, to Deborah 
Jordan, Director, Region 9 Air Division, dated August 10, 2011 with 
attachments.
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    Future references in this proposal to the 2007 State Strategy and 
to the South Coast 2007 AQMP will be to the State Strategy as revised 
in 2009 and 2011, and the AQMP as revised in 2011, respectively, unless 
otherwise noted.

B. CAA Procedural and Administrative Requirements for SIP Submissions

    CAA sections 110(a)(1) and (2) and 110(l) require a state to 
provide reasonable public notice and opportunity for public hearing 
prior to the adoption and submission of a SIP or SIP revision. To meet 
this requirement, every SIP submittal should include evidence that 
adequate public notice was given and an opportunity for a public 
hearing was provided consistent with EPA's implementing regulations in 
40 CFR 51.102.
    Both the District and CARB have satisfied applicable statutory and 
regulatory requirements for reasonable public notice and hearing prior 
to adoption and submission of the South Coast 2007 Ozone Plan. The 
District conducted public workshops, provided public comment periods, 
and held public hearings prior to the adoption of the South Coast 2007 
AQMP on June 1, 2007 (See SCAQMD Governing Board Resolution No. 07-9). 
CARB provided the required public notice and opportunity for public 
comment prior to its September 27, 2007 public hearing on the plan. See 
CARB Resolution No. 07-41. The District also provided the

[[Page 57875]]

required public notice and hearing on its 2011 revision to the 2007 
AQMP. See SCAQMD Governing Board Resolution 11-9.
    CARB conducted public workshops, provided public comment periods, 
and held a public hearing prior to the adoption of the 2007 State 
Strategy on September 27, 2007 (See CARB Resolution No. 07-28). CARB 
also provided the required public notice, opportunity for public 
comment, and a public hearing prior to its April 24, 2009 adoption of 
the 2009 State Strategy Status Report. See CARB Resolution 09-34, April 
24, 2009. Finally, CARB provided the required public notice, 
opportunity for public comment, and a public hearing prior to its April 
28, 2011 and July 21, 2011 adoption of the 2011 Progress Report and the 
2011 Ozone SIP Revision, respectively. See CARB Resolution 11-11, April 
28, 2011, and CARB Resolution 11-22, July 21, 2011.
    The SIP submittals include proof of publication for notices of the 
District and CARB public hearings, as evidence that all hearings were 
properly noticed. We find, therefore, that each of the five submittals 
meet the procedural requirements for public notice and hearing in CAA 
sections 110(a) and 110(l).
    CAA section 110(k)(1)(B) requires EPA to determine whether a SIP 
submittal is complete within 60 days of receipt. This section also 
provides that any plan that EPA has not affirmatively determined to be 
complete or incomplete will be deemed complete 6 months after the date 
of submission by operation of law. EPA's SIP completeness criteria are 
found in 40 CFR part 51, Appendix V.
    The November 28, 2007 submittal of the South Coast 2007 AQMP became 
complete by operation of law on May 28, 2008. The November 16, 2007 
submission of the 2007 State Strategy and the August 12, 2009 revisions 
to the Strategy became complete by operation of law on May 16, 2008 and 
February 12, 2010, respectively.
    We determined that CARB's 2011 Progress Report submittal of May 18, 
2011 was complete on June 13, 2011. See Letter, Deborah Jordan, Air 
Division Director, US EPA Region 9, to James Goldstene, Executive 
Officer, CARB, dated June 13, 2011. We determined that CARB's 2011 
Ozone SIP Update submittal of July 29, 2011 was complete on August 23, 
2011.\16\
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    \16\ See Letter, Deborah Jordan, Air Division Director, US EPA 
Region 9, to James Goldstene, Executive Officer, CARB, dated August 
23, 2011.
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IV. Review of the South Coast 2007 AQMP and the South Coast Portion of 
the Revised 2007 State Strategy

    We provide our evaluation of the South Coast 2007 8-Hour Ozone 
SIP's compliance with applicable CAA and EPA regulatory requirements 
below. A more detailed evaluation can be found in the technical support 
document (TSD) for this proposal, which is available online at http://www.regulations.gov under docket number EPA-R09-OAR-2011-0622, or from 
the EPA contact listed at the beginning of this notice.

A. Emissions Inventories

1. Requirements for Emissions Inventories
    CAA section 182(a)(1) requires each state with an ozone 
nonattainment area classified under subpart 2 to submit, within two 
years of the area's designation as nonattainment, a ``comprehensive, 
accurate, current inventory of actual emissions from all sources'' of 
the relevant pollutant or pollutants in accordance with guidance 
provided by EPA. CAA 182(a)(1), 40 CFR 51.915. EPA has issued 
``Emissions Inventory Guidance for Implementation of Ozone and 
Particulate Matter NAAQS and Regional Haze Regulations,'' (EPA-454/R-
05-001), November 2005 (``EI Guidance'') which provides guidance on how 
to develop base year and baseline emissions inventories for 8-hour 
ozone, PM2.5, and regional haze SIPs.
    For areas that were initially designated nonattainment for the 8-
hour ozone standard in 2004, EPA recommends using calendar year 2002 as 
the base year for the inventory required by CAA section 182(a)(1). EI 
Guidance, p. 8.
    Emissions inventories for ozone should include emissions of VOC, 
NOX, and carbon monoxide (CO) and represent an average 
summer week day during the ozone season. EI Guidance, pp. 14 and 17. 
States should include documentation in their submittals explaining how 
emissions data were calculated. 70 FR 71612 at 71664 and EI Guidance, 
p. 40. In estimating mobile source emissions, states should use the 
latest emission models and planning assumptions available at the time 
the SIP is developed. 66 FR at 32854 and 70 FR 61612, at 71666. For 
California, the latest available mobile source emissions model is 
EMFAC2007, which EPA approved in 2008 for use in SIPs and 
transportation conformity analyses. See 73 FR 3464 (January 18, 2008).
2. Emissions Inventories in the South Coast 2007 AQMP
    The base year and future year baseline inventories for ozone 
precursors for the South Coast ozone nonattainment area together with 
additional documentation for the inventories are found in Chapter 3 and 
Appendix III of the South Coast 2007 AQMP.\17\ These inventories 
represent average summer day (ozone season) emissions. Inventories are 
provided for the base year of 2002; the RFP milestone years of 2008, 
2011, 2014, 2017, 2020; and the attainment year of 2023. The projected 
baseline inventories include reductions from Federal, State, and 
District measures adopted prior to 2007. See South Coast 2007 AQMP, 
page 3-1 and 2007 State Strategy, Appendix A, p. 1. All inventories 
include emissions from point, area, on-road and non-road sources.
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    \17\ By ``future year baseline inventories'' or ``projected 
baseline inventories,'' we mean projected emissions inventories for 
future years that account for, among other things, the effects of 
economic growth and adopted emissions control requirements.
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    As a starting point for the South Coast 2007 AQMP's inventories, 
the District used CARB's inventory for the year 2002. This inventory 
and CARB's documentation for its inventories can be found in Appendices 
A and F, respectively, of the 2007 State Strategy. The 2002 inventory 
for the South Coast nonattainment area was projected to 2005 and future 
years using CARB's California Emission Forecasting System (CEFS). Both 
base year and projected baseline inventories use the most current 
version of California's mobile source emissions model, EMFAC2007, for 
estimating on-road motor vehicle emissions. EPA has approved this model 
for use in SIPs and transportation conformity analyses. 73 FR 3464 
(January 18, 2008). Off-road inventories were developed using the CARB 
off-road model.
    As part of its 2011 Ozone SIP Revision, CARB submitted revised base 
year and future year baseline inventories for the South Coast 
nonattainment area. See Table 1 below. These revised inventories 
incorporate improved activity data and/or emission factors for diesel 
trucks and buses and off-road equipment that were developed as part of 
CARB's December 2010 rulemakings amending its In-Use On-Road Truck and 
Bus Rule and In-Use Off-Road Engine rule. The State estimates that 
these changes collectively reduce the 2002 base year total inventory in 
the South Coast by 5 percent for NOX and less than 2 percent

[[Page 57876]]

for VOC.\18\ The projected baseline inventories for subsequent years 
were also revised to reflect the ongoing effects of the 2007-2009 
economic recession, which has significantly reduced activity levels and 
associated emissions from the State's construction and goods movement 
sectors. CARB estimates that emissions levels and growth rates will 
return to normal levels by the 2017-2018 timeframe. 2011 Ozone SIP 
Revision, Appendix B. As a result, projected emission levels from these 
categories in the years up to 2017-2018 are now substantially lower 
than were originally projected in the South Coast 2007 AQMP and 2007 
State Strategy as submitted in November 2007. These recession-related 
decreases in emissions do not in themselves affect the Plan's emissions 
inventories for the modeling validation years (1997, 2004, and 2005), 
the base year (2002), or future years (2020 and 2023), and thus do not 
change the carrying capacity estimates in the plan (i.e., they do not 
in themselves affect the target level of overall emissions reductions 
needed to demonstrate attainment), nor do they alter the 2002 adjusted 
baseline emissions, which provide the starting point for the reasonable 
further progress demonstration. The principal effect of the recession-
related decreases in projected emissions estimates is to reduce the 
amount of reductions needed from the SIP's control strategy to 
demonstrate RFP in the years prior to 2018.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \18\ See Appendix A of 2011 Ozone SIP Revision.

                 Table 1--South Coast Base Year and Attainment Year Emissions Inventory Summary
                             [Summer planning inventory emissions in tons per day] a
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Emissions inventory category                        NOx                                 VOC
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  Year                          2002              2023              2002              2023
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Stationary/Areawide Sources.............                89                68               318               273
On-road Mobile Sources..................               652               140               361                98
Off-road Mobile Sources.................               283               170               202               142
                                         -----------------------------------------------------------------------
    TOTAL...............................              1024               378               881               513
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\a\ Numbers may not add up to precise totals due to rounding. Source: 2011 Ozone SIP Revision, Appendix B, p. B-
  2.

3. Proposed Action on the Base Year Emissions Inventory
    We have reviewed the 2002 base year emissions inventory in the 
South Coast 2007 AQMP and the inventory methodologies used by the 
District and CARB in developing that inventory and have determined that 
the inventory was developed consistent with CAA requirements as 
reflected in the 8-hour ozone implementation rule, and EPA's guidance. 
The revised 2002 base year inventory is a comprehensive, accurate, and 
current inventory of actual emissions of 8-hour ozone precursors in the 
South Coast nonattainment area. We therefore propose to approve the 
base year inventory as meeting the requirements of CAA section 
182(a)(1) and EPA's 8-hour ozone implementation rule. 40 CFR 51.915. We 
provide detail on our review of the base year inventory in section 
II.A. of the TSD for this proposal.

B. Reasonably Available Control Measures (RACM) Demonstration and 
Control Strategy

1. Requirements for RACM and Control Strategy
    CAA section 172(c)(1) requires that each attainment plan ``provide 
for the implementation of all reasonably available control measures as 
expeditiously as practicable (including such reductions in emissions 
from existing sources in the area as may be obtained through the 
adoption, at a minimum, of reasonably available control technology), 
and shall provide for attainment of the national primary ambient air 
quality standards.'' The 8-hour ozone implementation rule requires that 
for each nonattainment area that is required to submit an attainment 
demonstration, the state must also submit concurrently a SIP revision 
demonstrating that it has adopted all RACM necessary to demonstrate 
attainment as expeditiously as practicable and to meet any RFP 
requirements. 40 CFR 51.912(d).
    EPA has previously provided guidance interpreting the RACM 
requirement in the General Preamble at 13560 \19\ and in a memorandum 
entitled ``Guidance on Reasonably Available Control Measures (RACM) 
Requirements and Attainment Demonstration Submissions for the Ozone 
NAAQS,'' John Seitz, November 30, 1999. (Seitz memo). In summary, EPA 
guidance provides that to address the requirement to adopt all RACM, 
states should consider all potentially reasonable control measures for 
source categories in the nonattainment area to determine whether they 
are reasonably available for implementation in that area and whether 
they would, if implemented individually or collectively, advance the 
area's attainment date by one year or more. See Seitz memo and General 
Preamble at 13560; see also ``State Implementation Plans; General 
Preamble for Proposed Rulemaking on Approval of Plan Revisions for 
Nonattainment Areas,'' 44 FR 20372 (April 4, 1979) and Memorandum dated 
December 14, 2000, from John S. Seitz, Director, Office of Air Quality 
Planning and Standards, ``Additional Submission on RACM from States 
with Severe One-Hour Ozone Nonattainment Area SIPs.''
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \19\ The ``General Preamble for the Implementation of Title I of 
the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990,'' published at 57 FR 13498 on 
April 16, 1992, describes EPA's preliminary view on how we would 
interpret various SIP planning provisions in title I of the CAA as 
amended in 1990, including those planning provisions applicable to 
the 1-hour ozone standard. EPA continues to rely on certain guidance 
in the General Preamble to implement the 8-hour ozone standard under 
title I.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Any measures that are necessary to meet these requirements that are 
not already either federally promulgated, part of the state's SIP, or 
otherwise creditable in SIPs must be submitted in enforceable form as 
part of a state's attainment plan for the area. 72 FR 20586, at 
20614.\20\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \20\ For ozone nonattainment areas classified as moderate or 
above, CAA section 182(b)(2) also requires implementation of RACT 
for all major sources of VOC and for each VOC source category for 
which EPA has issued a Control Techniques Guideline (CTG). CAA 
section 182(f) requires that RACT under section 182(b)(2) also apply 
to major stationary sources of NOX. In extreme areas, a 
major source is a stationary source that emits or has the potential 
to emit at least 10 tons of VOC or NOX per year. CAA 
section 182(e) and (f). Under the 8-hour ozone implementation rule, 
states were required to submit SIP revisions meeting the RACT 
requirements of CAA sections 182(b)(2) and 182(f) no later than 27 
months after designation for the 8-hour ozone standard (September 
15, 2006 for areas designated in April 2004) and to implement the 
required RACT measures no later than 30 months after that submittal 
deadline. See 40 CFR 51.912(a). California submitted the CAA section 
182 RACT SIP for the South Coast 8-hour ozone nonattainment area on 
January 31, 2007, which EPA fully approved on December 18, 2008. See 
73 FR 76947.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

[[Page 57877]]

    CAA section 172(c)(6) requires nonattainment plans to ``include 
enforceable emission limitations, and such other control measures, 
means or techniques (including economic incentives such as fees, 
marketable permits, and auctions of emission rights), as well as 
schedules and timetables for compliance, as may be necessary or 
appropriate to provide for attainment of such standard in such area by 
the applicable attainment date * * *.'' See also CAA section 
110(a)(2)(A). The ozone implementation rule requires that all control 
measures needed for attainment be implemented no later than the 
beginning of the attainment year ozone season. 40 CFR 51.908(d). The 
attainment year ozone season is defined as the ozone season immediately 
preceding a nonattainment area's attainment date. 40 CFR 51.900(g).
2. RACM Demonstration and Control Strategy
    For the 2007 Ozone Plan and the 2007 State Strategy, CARB, the 
District, and the local agency (through the South Coast's metropolitan 
planning organization (MPO), the Southern California Association of 
Governments (SCAG)) each undertook a process to identify and evaluate 
potential reasonably available control measures that could contribute 
to expeditious attainment of the 1997 8-hour ozone standards in the 
South Coast nonattainment area. We describe each agency's efforts 
below.
a. District's RACM Demonstration and Control Strategy
    The District's RACM demonstration, which focuses on stationary and 
area source controls, is described in Chapter 6 and Appendix VI of the 
South Coast 2007 AQMP. In developing the South Coast 2007 AQMP, the 
District conducted a process to identify RACM for the South Coast that 
involved public meetings to solicit input, evaluation of EPA's 
suggested RACM, and evaluation of other air agencies' regulations. See 
South Coast 2007 AQMP, Appendix VI.
    To identify potential reasonably available measures for the South 
Coast, the District evaluated measures implemented in other 
nonattainment areas (including the San Joaquin Valley, the San 
Francisco Bay Area, Sacramento, Ventura, Dallas-Fort Worth, and the 
Houston-Galveston area) and measures identified by the Lake Michigan 
Air Directors Consortium (LADCO), and held meetings with CARB, 
technical experts, local government representatives, and the public 
during development of the South Coast 2007 AQMP. The District sponsored 
an AQMP summit, which generated 200 potential control measures. The 
District also reevaluated all 82 of the existing SIP-approved District 
rules and regulations.
    From the set of identified potential controls, the District then 
screened the identified measures and rejected those that would not 
individually or collectively advance attainment in the area, had 
already been adopted as rules, or were in the process of being adopted. 
The remaining measures were evaluated taking into account baseline 
inventories, available control technologies, and potential emission 
reductions as well as whether the measure could be implemented on a 
schedule that would advance attainment of the 1997 8-hour ozone 
standard by at least a year, assuming a 2024 deadline. South Coast 2007 
AQMP, Appendix VI.
    In general, EPA believes that the District's current rules and 
regulations are equivalent to or more stringent with respect to 
emissions of ozone precursors than those developed by other air 
districts.
    Based on its RACM analysis for stationary and area sources under 
its jurisdiction, the District scheduled 15 new or revised stationary 
source control measures for development and adoption, including 
measures at least as stringent as those identified in other California 
districts' AQMPs and several innovative measures. Since submission of 
the AQMP in 2007, the District has adopted 13 of these rules and 
submitted them to EPA for approval into the SIP. These rules are part 
of the District's enforceable commitment to achieve emissions 
reductions of 9 tons per day (tpd) of NOX and 19 tpd of VOC 
by 2023. As to the few remaining measures that the District rejected 
from its RACM analysis, the District determined that these measures 
would not advance the attainment date or contribute to RFP due to the 
insignificant or unquantifiable emissions reductions they would 
potentially generate. See South Coast 2007 AQMP, Appendix VI.
    The District has made new commitments in its South Coast 2007 AQMP 
to achieve specific reductions from VOC and NOX sources in 
the South Coast area. The District committed to adopt and submit 
measures that will achieve the following additional emissions 
reductions by 2023: 9 tpd NOX and 19 tpd VOC. See South 
Coast 2007 AQMP, Table 4-2A, page 4-10 and CARB Staff Report on the 
South Coast 2007 AQMP, page 13.\21\ The District expects to meet its 
emissions reductions commitments for VOC and NOX (see Table 
2 below) by adopting new control measures and programs and 
strengthening existing control measures, such as those identified in 
Table 4-2A of the South Coast 2007 AQMP (see South Coast 2007 AQMP, 
page 4-10 and CARB Staff Report on South Coast 2007 AQMP, p. 13), and 
through the additional actions summarized in the CARB Staff Report on 
the South Coast 2007 AQMP (See CARB Staff Report on South Coast 2007 
AQMP, p. 18). These new or revised control measures include rules to 
regulate lubricants, consumer products, non-RECLAIM ovens, dryers and 
furnaces, space heaters, facility modernizations, livestock waste, and 
residential wood burning. The South Coast 2007 AQMP also identifies 22 
measures (beyond the new control measures and additional actions just 
discussed) for further review, which may yield additional emission 
reductions.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \21\ The CARB Staff Report on the South Coast 2007 AQMP, page 
ES-4, incorrectly states the SCAQMD commitments as 19 tpd 
NOX and 9 tpd VOC.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    SCAQMD has committed to adopt and implement control measures that 
will achieve the total tonnage of emission reductions identified in 
Tables 2 and 3 of Appendix F of the 2011 Progress report. As discussed 
above, the District's commitment is to achieve the total tonnage of 
reductions of each pollutant by the specified dates. If SCAQMD 
determines that a particular measure is infeasible, in whole or in 
part, SCAQMD commits to achieve equivalent reductions on the same 
schedule through substitute controls. South Coast 2007 AQMP, p. 4-73.

[[Page 57878]]

   Table 2--District Short and Intermediate Term Control Measures Credited in South Coast 2007 AQMP Attainment
                                        Demonstration, as Revised in 2011
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                          Emissions reduction    Emissions reductions achieved a
                                                          commitment in South  ---------------------------------
                                                          Coast 2007 AQMP, as
  Control  measure      Rule No.           Title            revised in 2011
                                                       ------------------------      NOX              VOC
                                                            NOX         VOC
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BCM-03.............             445  Woodburning        n/a.......  n/a.......  0.1 tpd        0.7 tpd.
                                      fireplaces and
                                      woodstoves.
CTS-01.............            1144  Metalworking       n/a.......  2.0 tpd...  n/a            4.2 tpd.
                                      fluids and
                                      direct-contact
                                      lubricants.
CTS-03 \b\.........  ..............  Consumer Products  n/a.......  n/a.......  n/a            n/a.
                                      Certification
                                      and Emissions
                                      Reductions from
                                      the Use of
                                      Consumer
                                      Products at
                                      Inst. and Comm'l
                                      Facilities.
CTS-04.............            1143  Consumer Paint     n/a.......  n/a.......  n/a            10.1 tpd.
                                      Thinners and
                                      Multi-Purpose
                                      Solvents.
CMB-01.............            1147  NOX reductions     4.1 tpd...  ..........  4.1 tpd        .................
                                      from
                                      miscellaneous
                                      sources.
FUG-02.............             461  Gasoline transfer  n/a.......  4.0 tpd...  n/a            Met via excess
                                      and dispensing.                                           from Rule 1143.
FUG-04.............            1149  Storage Tank and   n/a.......  n/a.......  n/a            0.04 tpd.
                                      Pipeline
                                      Cleaning and
                                      Degassing.
CMB-03.............            1111  Further NOX        1.1 tpd...  n/a.......  3.0 tpd        n/a.
                                      reductions from
                                      space heaters.
MCS-01.............          1110.2  Liquid and         2.2 tpd...  9.2 tpd...  0.54 tpd       0.3 tpd.
                                      gaseous fuels--
                                      stationary ICEs.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                            Measures not yet adopted or not fully approved by EPA \c\
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                     ..............  .................  NOX.......  VOC.......  .............
MCS-01.............            1146  NOX from           ..........  ..........      Emissions reductions not
                                      industrial,                                   currently creditable; EPA
                                      institutional, &                              proposed limited approval/
                                      commercial                                  limited disapproval published
                                      boilers, steam                              July 8, 2011, see 76 FR 40303.
                                      generators, and
                                      process heaters.
                             1146.1  NOX from small     ..........  ..........      Emissions reductions not
                                      ind, inst, &                                  currently creditable; EPA
                                      comm'l boilers,                               proposed limited approval/
                                      steam gens, and                             limited disapproval published
                                      proc. htrs.                                 July 8, 2011, see 76 FR 40303.
EGM-01.............            2301  Emissions          0.8 tpd...  0.5 tpd...  Scheduled for
                                      reductions from                            adoption in
                                      new or                                     2012.
                                      redevelopment
                                      projects.
MCS-05.............            1127  Livestock waste..  n/a.......  0.6 tpd...  EPA has not
                                                                                 yet acted on
                                                                                 this rule.
FLX-02.............  ..............  Refinery pilot     n/a.......  1.6 tpd...  Not yet
                                      program.                                   adopted.
MOB-05.............  ..............  AB923 LDV high     0.4 tpd...  0.7 tpd...  No rule
                                      emitter program.                           associated
                                                                                 with this
                                                                                 measure.
MOB-06.............  ..............  AB923 MDV high     0.6 tpd...  0.6 tpd...  No rule
                                      emitter program.                           associated
                                                                                 with this
                                                                                 measure.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 
 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                               SIP Commitments and Currently Creditable Reductions
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2023 SIP commitment--NOX.............  9.2 tpd NOX............  SIP-creditable           7.7 tpd.
                                                                 reductions--NOX.
2023 SIP commitment--VOC.............  19.3 tpd VOC...........  SIP-creditable           15.3 tpd.
                                                                 reductions--VOC.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\a\ From SCAQMD's 2011 ``Revisions to PM2.5 and Ozone State Implementation Plan for South Coast Air Basin and
  Coachella Valley,'' which was included as Appendix F in CARB's 2011 Progress Report, Tables 2 and 3, and
  District rule evaluation forms. Some emissions reduction commitments were revised from the information
  originally provided in the South Coast 2007 AQMP.

[[Page 57879]]

 
\b\ Adopted by CARB in November 2010.
\c\ EPA can only credit District rules that have been adopted, submitted to EPA, and approved for credit in the
  SIP.
n/a = not applicable.

                 Table 3--Status of District Rules in the South Coast 2007 AQMP for 8-Hour Ozone
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                    Implementation
               Rule                  Adoption date       date             SIP status       Federal Register cite
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Rule 445--Woodburning fireplaces              2008       2008-2014  SIP-approved.........  74 FR 27716, 06/11/
 and woodstoves.                                                                            09.
Rule 461--Gasoline transfer and               2009       2010-2012  SIP-approved.........  71 FR 18216, 04/11/
 dispensing.                                                                                06.
Rule 1149--storage tank and                   2008            2008  SIP-approved.........  74 FR 67821, 12/21/
 pipeline cleaning and degreasing.                                                          09.
Rule 1144--Vanishing oils and rust            2009            2011  Proposed for SIP-      75 FR 41744, 07/15/
 inhibitors.                                                         approval.              11.
Rule 1143--Consumer Paint Thinners            2009            2011  Proposed for SIP-      76 FR 41744, 07/15/
 and Multi-Purpose Solvents.                                         approval.              11.
Rule 1147--NOX reductions from                2008            2010  SIP-approved.........  75 FR 46845, 08/04/
 miscellaneous sources.                                                                     10.
Rule 1111--Further NOX reductions             2009       2012-2043  SIP-approved.........  75 FR 46845, 08/04/
 from space heaters.                                                                        10.
Rule 1110.2--Liquid and gaseous               2008            2011  SIP-approved.........  74 FR 18995, 4/27/09.
 fuels--stationary ICEs.
Rule 1146--NOX from industrial,               2008            2011  Submitted............  Proposed limited
 institutional, commercial                                                                  approval/limited
 boilers, steam generators, and                                                             disapproval 7/8/11,
 process heaters.                                                                           76 FR 40303.
Rule 1146.1--NOX from small                   2008            2011  Submitted............  Proposed limited
 industrial, institutional,                                                                 approval/limited
 commercial boilers, steam                                                                  disapproval 7/8/11,
 generators, and process heaters.                                                           76 FR 40303.
Rule 1127--Livestock Waste........            2006            2011  Submitted to EPA on    Found complete on 10/
                                                                     10/05/06.              25/06.
Refinery Pilot Program............            2008            2010  Not yet adopted......  N/A.
Rule 2301--Indirect Source Review.            2012            2014  Not yet adopted......  N/A.
AB923--Light duty vehicle high                 (a)             (a)  No rule associated     N/A.
 emitter program.                                                    with this measure.
AB923--Light duty vehicle high                 (a)             (a)  No rule associated     N/A.
 emitter program.                                                    with this measure.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\a\ Ongoing.

b. The Local Jurisdiction's RACM Analysis
    The local jurisdiction's RACM analysis was conducted by the 
metropolitan planning organization (MPO) for the South Coast region, 
the Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG). This 
analysis focused on transportation control measures (TCMs). TCMs are, 
in general, measures designed to reduce emissions from on-road motor 
vehicles through reductions in vehicle miles traveled or traffic 
congestion. SCAG's analysis is described in Appendix IV-C of the South 
Coast 2007 AQMP. The TCMs in the South Coast 2007 AQMP are derived from 
TCM projects in the 2006 SCAG Regional Transportation Improvement 
Program (RTIP). This evaluation, described beginning on page 49 of 
Appendix IV-C of the South Coast 2007 AQMP, resulted in extensive local 
government commitments to implement programs to reduce auto travel and 
improve traffic flow. South Coast 2007 AQMP page 6-6 and Appendix IV-C. 
Attachment A to Appendix IV-C contains an extensive list of TCMs under 
development and newly scheduled TCMs. See South Cost 2007 AQMP, 
Appendix IV-C, p. 39.
    SCAG evaluated a wide variety of transportation control measures, 
including those measures listed in CAA section 108(f), and determined 
that there were no combinations of reasonable measures that would 
advance attainment of the 8-hour ozone standard in the South Coast. See 
South Coast 2007 AQMP, Appendix IV-C.
c. CARB's RACM Demonstration and Control Strategy
    Source categories for which CARB has primary responsibility for 
reducing emissions in California include most new and existing on- and 
off-road engines and vehicles, motor vehicle fuels, and consumer 
products.
    Given the need for significant emissions reductions from mobile and 
area sources to meet the NAAQS in California nonattainment areas, the 
State of California has been a leader in the development of stringent 
control measures nationwide for on-road and off-road mobile sources and 
the fuels that power them. See, e.g., 2007 State Strategy, p. 37; see 
also TSD at Appendix A. California has unique authority under CAA 
section 209 (subject to a waiver by EPA) to adopt and implement new 
emission standards for many categories of on-road vehicles and engines 
and new and in-use off-road vehicles and engines.
    The State is working with EPA on goods movement activities and is 
implementing programs to reduce emissions from ship auxiliary engines, 
locomotives, harbor craft and new cargo handling equipment. In 
addition, the State has standards for lawn and garden equipment, 
recreational vehicles and boats, and other off-road sources that 
require newly manufactured equipment to be 80-98 percent cleaner than 
their uncontrolled counterparts. Id. Finally, the State has adopted 
many measures that focus on achieving reductions from in-use mobile 
sources that include more stringent inspection and maintenance 
requirements in California's Smog

[[Page 57880]]

Check program, truck and bus idling restrictions, and various incentive 
programs. Appendix A of the TSD includes a list of all measures adopted 
by CARB between 1990 and the beginning of 2007. These measures, 
reductions from which are reflected in the Plan's baseline inventories, 
fall into two categories: measures that are subject to a waiver of 
Federal pre-emption under CAA section 209 (section 209 waiver measures 
or waiver measures) and those for which the State is not required to 
obtain a waiver (non-waiver measures). Emissions reductions from waiver 
measures are fully creditable in attainment and RFP demonstrations and 
may be used to meet other CAA requirements, such as contingency 
measures. See TSD, section II.C. and EPA's proposed and final approval 
of the SJV 1-Hour Ozone Plan at 74 FR 33933, 33938 (July 14, 2009) and 
75 FR 10420 (March 8, 2010). Generally, the State's baseline non-waiver 
measures have been approved by EPA into the SIP and are fully 
creditable for meeting CAA requirements. See TSD, Appendix A.
    CARB developed its proposed 2007 State Strategy after an extensive 
public consultation process to identify potential SIP measures.\22\ 
Through this process, CARB identified and has committed to develop 15 
new or revised control measures. See also the discussion on enforceable 
commitments below. These measures focus on cleaning up the in-use fleet 
as well as increasing the stringency of emissions standards for a 
number of engine categories, fuels, and consumer products. They build 
on CARB's existing program, which addresses emissions from all types of 
mobile sources through both regulations and incentive programs. See 
Appendix A of the TSD. Table 4 lists the defined measures in the 2007 
State Strategy and their current adoption and approval status. Table 5 
provides the State's current estimate of the expected emissions 
reductions from these measures in the attainment year (2023), which 
would contribute to achieving the State's aggregate emission reduction 
commitment for that year.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \22\ More information on this public process including 
presentations from the workshops and symposium that preceded the 
adoption of the 2007 State Strategy can be found at http://www.arb.ca.gov/planning/sip/2007sip/2007sip.htm.

          Table 4--2007 State Strategy Defined Measures Scheduled for Consideration and Current Status
                                               [Updated July 2011]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              State measure                          Expected action year                  Current status
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Smog Check Improvements..................  2007-2009..............................  Elements approved 75 FR
                                                                                     38023 (July 1, 2010).\23\
Expanded Vehicle Retirement..............  2007...................................  Adopted by CARB June 2009;
                                                                                     by BAR, September 2010.
Modifications to Reformulated Gasoline     2007...................................  Approved, see 75 FR 26653
 Program.                                                                            (May 2, 2010).
Cleaner In-use Heavy Duty Trucks.........  2007,..................................  Proposed approval 76 FR
                                           2008, 2010.............................   40652 (July 11, 2011).
Auxiliary Ship Cold Ironing and Other      2007-2008..............................  Adopted December 2007.
 Clean Technologies.
Cleaner Main Ship Engines and Fuels......  Fuel: 2008-2011........................  Proposed approval 76 FR
                                           Engines: 2008..........................   40652 (July 11, 2011).
Port Truck Modernization.................  2007, 2008, 2010.......................  Adopted December 2007 and
                                                                                     December 2008.
Accelerated Introduction of Cleaner        2008...................................  Prop 1B funds awarded to
 Locomotives.                                                                        upgrade line-haul
                                                                                     locomotive engines not
                                                                                     already accounted for by
                                                                                     enforceable agreements with
                                                                                     the railroads. Those
                                                                                     cleaner line-hauls will
                                                                                     begin operation by 2012.
Clean Up Existing Harbor Craft...........  2007, 2010.............................  Adopted November 2007,
                                                                                     revised June 2010.
Cleaner In-Use Off-Road Equipment........  2007, 2010.............................  Waiver decision pending.
New Emissions Standards for Recreational   2013...................................  Action expected in 2013.
 Boats.
Expanded Off-Road Recreational Vehicle     2013...................................  Action expected in 2013.
 Emissions Standards.
Enhanced Vapor Recovery for Above Ground   2008...................................  Adopted June 2007, effective
 Storage Tanks.                                                                      June 2008.
Additional Evaporative Emissions           2009, 2013.............................  Action expected 2013.
 Standards.
Consumer Products Program (I & II).......  2008, 2009, & 2011.....................  Approved 74 FR 57074
                                                                                     (November 4, 2009) and 76
                                                                                     FR 27613 (May 12, 2011).
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: 2009 State Strategy Status Report, p. 23, 2011 Progress Report, Table 1, and 2011 Ozone SIP Revision,
  Appendix A-3. Additional information from http://www.arb.ca.gov.

     
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \23\ California Assembly Bill 2289, passed in 2010, requires the 
Bureau of Automotive Repair (BAR) to direct older vehicles to high 
performing auto technicians and test stations for inspection and 
certification effective 2013. Reductions shown for the SmogCheck 
program in the 2011 Progress Report do not include reductions from 
AB 2289 improvements. See CARB Progress Report Supplement, 
Attachment 5.

Table 5--Expected Emissions Reductions From Defined Measures in the 2007
                   State Strategy for the South Coast
                     [2023 planning inventory, tpd]
------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 Measure                     2023 NOX        2023 VOC
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Smog Check Improvements (BAR) [partial].             1.2             5.3
Cleaner In-Use Heavy-Duty Trucks........            27.4             1.3
Ship Auxiliary Engine Cold Ironing &                28.4             0.7
 Clean Technology.......................
Cleaner Main Ship Engines and Fuel                  44.5             0.8
 [engine portion].......................
Clean Up Existing Harbor Craft..........              10             0.4
Cleaner In-Use Off-Road Equipment                    3.2             0.3
 (>25hp)................................

[[Page 57881]]

 
Consumer Products Program [partial].....              --             7.1
                                         -------------------------------
    Totals..............................           114.7            15.9
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: CARB 2011 Ozone SIP Revision Supplement, Attachment 1.

    The 2007 State Strategy includes an enforceable commitment to 
achieve aggregate emissions reductions of 141 tpd of NOX and 
54 tpd of VOC by the attainment year (2023). See Table 6. The 2007 
State Strategy demonstrates that these CARB commitments, in combination 
with existing SIP-creditable measures, the District's commitments, and 
reduction commitments from the CAA section 182(e)(5) new technologies 
provision, will be sufficient to attain the 1997 8-hour NAAQS in the 
South Coast nonattainment area by the applicable attainment date of 
June 15, 2024. CARB also made enforceable commitments to achieve 
aggregate emissions reductions in the RFP milestone years of 2014 and 
2020. See 2009 State Strategy Status Report, p. 20 and CARB Resolution 
07-28, Attachment B, p. 4. See Table 6 below. The nature of these 
commitments is described in the State Strategy as follows:

    The total emission reductions from the new measures necessary to 
attain the federal standards are an enforceable State commitment in 
the SIP. While the proposed State Strategy includes estimates of the 
emission reductions from each of the individual new measures, it is 
important to note that the commitment of the State Strategy is to 
achieve the total emission reductions necessary to attain the 
federal standards, which would be the aggregate of all existing and 
proposed new measures combined. Therefore, if a particular measure 
does not get its expected emission reductions, the State still 
commits to achieving the total aggregate emission reductions, 
whether this is realized through additional reductions from the new 
measures or from alternative control measures or incentive programs. 
If actual emission decreases occur in any air basin for which 
emission reduction commitments have been made that are greater than 
the projected emissions reductions from the adopted measures in the 
State Strategy, the actual emission decreases may be counted toward 
meeting ARB's total emission reduction commitments.

CARB Resolution 07-28 (September 27, 2007), Appendix B, p. 3.

                      Table 6--CARB Commitments to Specific Aggregate Emissions Reductions
                                              [Tons per summer day]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                                    2023  CAA
                                                2014             2020 1             2023             section
                                                                                                   182(e)(5) 2
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
VOC.....................................                46                52                54                40
NOX.....................................               152               144               141               241
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: 2009 State Strategy Update, p. 20.
\1\ No commitments to VOC or NOX reductions in 2017; 2020 commitment in the South Coast is necessary to provide
  for attainment in the downwind nonattainment areas.
\2\ The anticipated reductions of VOC and NOX from 182(e)(5) measures will be reassessed as new SIPs are
  developed and revised. 2009 State Strategy Update, p. 20.

d. CAA Section 182(e)(5) New or Improved Technologies Provisions
    For ozone nonattainment areas classified as extreme, the CAA 
recognizes that an attainment demonstration may need to rely to a 
certain extent on new or evolving technologies, given the relatively 
long time between developing the initial plan and attaining the 
standard and the degree of emissions reductions needed to attain. To 
address these needs, CAA section 182(e)(5) authorizes EPA to approve 
provisions in an extreme area plan which ``anticipate development of 
new control techniques or improvement of existing control 
technologies,'' and to approve an attainment demonstration based on 
such provisions, if the State demonstrates that: (1) Such provisions 
are not necessary to achieve the incremental emission reductions 
required during the first 10 years after November 15, 1990;\24\ and (2) 
the State has submitted enforceable commitments to develop and adopt 
contingency measures to be implemented if the anticipated technologies 
do not achieve the planned reductions. CAA 182(e)(5). The State must 
submit these contingency measures to EPA no later than 3 years before 
proposed implementation of these long-term measures, and the 
contingency measures must be ``adequate to produce emissions reductions 
sufficient, in conjunction with other approved plan provisions, to 
achieve the periodic emissions reductions required by [CAA sections 
182(b)(1) or (c)(2)] and attainment by the applicable dates.'' Id.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \24\ Consistent with provisions in our implementation 
regulations for the 1997 ozone NAAQS at 40 CFR part 51, subpart X, 
we interpret this 10 year timeframe to run from the effective date 
of designation for the 1997 ozone NAAQS.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The General Preamble further provides that the new technology 
measures contemplated by section 182(e)(5) may include those that 
anticipate future technological developments as well as those that 
require complex analyses, decision making and coordination among a 
number of government agencies. See General Preamble at 13524. An 
attainment demonstration that relies on long-term new technology 
measures under section 182(e)(5) must identify any such measures and 
contain a schedule outlining the steps leading to final development and 
adoption of the measures. Id.
    CARB and the SCAQMD have demonstrated a clear need for emissions 
reductions from new and improved control technologies to reduce air

[[Page 57882]]

pollution in the South Coast. The adopted control measures and 
enforceable commitments, discussed above, provide the majority, but not 
all, of the balance of the emissions reductions needed to attain by 
June 15, 2024. See 2007 State Strategy, p. 54. The State Strategy and 
South Coast AQMP rely on commitments to achieve additional reductions 
of 241 tpd NOX and 40 tpd VOC by 2023 from new and improved 
technologies consistent with the requirements of section 182(e)(5). See 
2009 State Strategy Status Report, p. 20. The new technology provisions 
(also called ``long-term measures'') described in the revised 2007 
State Strategy and South Coast 8-Hour Ozone SIP are not relied on to 
demonstrate RFP; they are relied on solely for attainment by June 15, 
2024. They are accompanied by an enforceable commitment by the State to 
adopt and submit contingency measures no later than 3 years before 
implementation, as required by CAA section 182(e)(5). We provide our 
analysis of these new technology provisions below.
    CARB and the California districts have a longstanding history of 
successfully adopting and implementing technology-advancing regulations 
and innovative control measures. They have worked closely with research 
scientists and the regulated industry to develop regulations that are 
stringent enough to compel technology development, yet flexible enough 
to encourage industry innovations. CARB has provided a list of 
potential long-term control measures which include increased durability 
of emission control equipment in passenger vehicles, tighter engine 
emission standards, cleaner ground support equipment at airports, and 
prioritizing Federal transportation funding to support air quality 
goals. See pp. 56-57 of the 2007 State Strategy. The SCAQMD has also 
provided a list of potential advanced control technologies and 
innovative approaches that could achieve the long-term reductions (See 
South Coast 2007 AQMP, pp. 4-54 to 4-71). SCAQMD also has an active 
Technology Advancement Office. The South Coast technology advancement 
efforts include, though are not limited to: Heavy-Duty Class 8 Electric 
Trucks, Vehicle Maintenance, Commercial Green Cleaners, Fireplace Gas 
Log Buy-down, Residential Yard Equipment and Commercial Leaf Blower 
Exchange, Boiler and Process Heater Efficiency Upgrades, Architectural 
Coating Rebates, and zero-emission electric delivery trucks.
    CARB has also provided updates to its list of potential long-term 
measures in both the 2009 State Strategy update and the 2011 ozone SIP 
revision. The SCAQMD has also provided a more specific list of 
potential technologies, which may be used to fulfill the new technology 
commitments. SCAQMD's list of potential projects includes (but is not 
limited to) extensive retirement of high-emitting light duty vehicles, 
accelerated penetration of zero-emitting vehicles, retrofit and I/M for 
heavy duty vehicles, more stringent fuel specifications and use of 
diesel alternatives, more stringent marine vessel standards and 
programs, advanced and zero-emitting technologies for locomotives/cargo 
transportation, accelerated replacement of pleasure craft, more 
stringent aircraft standards, and ultra-low VOC formulations for 
consumer products. See South Coast AQMP, Table 4-9, p. 4-56. See 2009 
State Strategy Status Report, pp. 25-27 and 2011 Ozone SIP Revision, 
Appendix A, pp. A-8 to A-12.
    To implement the long-term strategy, CARB has committed to a 
process that will help ensure that the long-term measures are adopted 
and that reductions are achieved by the beginning of the last full 
ozone season before the attainment date. CARB is coordinating a 
government, private and public effort to establish emission goals for 
critical mobile and stationary emission source categories. The effort 
includes periodic assessment of technology advancement opportunities 
and updates to the Board and the public regarding new emission control 
opportunities and progress in achieving the long-term measure 
reductions. CARB's commitment for implementing the long-term strategy 
also includes (a) sharing results through periodic briefings to the 
Board, workshops, conferences, symposia, Web site postings and other 
means, (b) working to secure resources for continuing research and 
development of new technologies, and (c) developing schedules for 
moving from research to implementation. Id.
    An initial step in the long-term strategy was the signing of a 
Memorandum of Agreement (MOA) between the U.S. EPA, CARB and the South 
Coast and San Joaquin Valley Air Districts to commit to developing and 
testing new sustainable technologies to accelerate progress in meeting 
air quality goals. The goal of the MOA is to help align agency research 
resources to evaluate innovative technologies and assess new monitoring 
equipment to better measure mobile and stationary source emissions. The 
MOA agencies have also established a Clean Air Technology Working Group 
to help bring together the necessary participants (e.g., scientists, 
engineers, analysts and agency specialists) to achieve the goals of the 
MOA. 2009 State Strategy Status Report, pp. 25-27. For the South Coast, 
the focus has been on demonstrating new technologies for goods movement 
activities at a large intermodal rail yard in the City of San 
Bernardino, and on the more than 1,000 stationary and area emission 
sources in the South Coast (e.g., auto repair shops, transportation 
facilities, concrete and aggregate operations, military installations, 
printing and coating operations, and manufacturing facilities). See 
2011 Ozone SIP Revision, p. A-9.
    Other State programs that may achieve emissions reductions to help 
meet CARB's 182(e)(5) commitment include: potential co-benefits from 
California's climate change programs where State legislation (Assembly 
Bill 32--Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 (AB 32)) aims to reduce 
Greenhouse Gas (GHG) in 2020 to 1990 levels or by about 30%; 
California's Air Quality Improvement Program (AQIP), an incentive 
program that supports the deployment of hybrid and zero-emission 
vehicles and other advanced technologies today in order to achieve the 
large-scale reductions needed in the future; and California's annual 
research program, which identifies projects and provides funding to 
help provide timely scientific and technical information needed for air 
quality control programs. In addition, the South Coast AQMD has 
identified a clean energy strategy that focuses agencies and business 
leaders on using the cleanest technologies, making efficient land-use 
decisions, cleaner energy generation (solar and fuel cells), 
modernizing old inefficient power plants and improving building energy 
use. See 2011 Ozone SIP Revision, pp. A-10 to A-12.
    In addition to its commitment to the process discussed above, CARB 
has committed to submit an 8-hour ozone SIP revision by 2020 that will: 
(1) Reflect modifications to the 2023 emission reduction target based 
on updated science and (2) identify additional strategies and 
implementing agencies needed to achieve the needed reductions by the 
beginning of the 2023 ozone season. See 2011 Ozone SIP Revision, p. A-
8.
    CARB's 2011 Ozone SIP Revision updates and reaffirms both the 
``long-term strategy commitment to identify and implement advanced 
technologies to reduce ozone-forming emissions in the State Strategy'' 
and the State's enforceable commitment ``to develop, adopt, and submit 
contingency measures by 2020 if advanced

[[Page 57883]]

technology measures do not achieve planned reductions.'' See CARB 
Resolution 11-22, July 21, 2011. Finally, CARB has committed to meet 
annually with EPA to discuss strategies to maximize the clean air 
benefits of emerging advanced technologies and to provide annual 
summaries of strategies and activities.\25\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \25\ See letter, James Goldstene, Executive Officer, CARB, to 
Jared Blumenfeld, Regional Administrator, EPA Region 9, dated August 
29, 2011.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The long-term strategy commitment for the South Coast 8-Hour Ozone 
SIP satisfies the two criteria in CAA section 182(e)(5)(A) and (B) as 
follows. First, as mentioned above, the South Coast 8-Hour Ozone SIP 
does not rely on any of these new technology reductions to demonstrate 
RFP in any milestone year between 2008 and 2020. CARB has committed to 
achieve 241 tpd of NOX and 40 tpd of VOC reductions through 
new technology measures approved under section 182(e)(5) only in the 
attainment year (2023). We note that the amount and relative proportion 
of reductions from measures scheduled for long-term adoption under 
section 182(e)(5), as compared to measures already adopted in 
regulatory form or scheduled for near-term adoption, should clearly 
decrease in any future SIP update, and that EPA will not approve a SIP 
revision that contains an increase in the amount or relative proportion 
of section 182(e)(5) new technology measures without a convincing 
showing in a SIP revision that the technologies relied upon in the 
near-term rules have been found to be technologically infeasible or 
ineffective in achieving emissions reductions in the near term.
    Second, CARB has submitted an enforceable commitment to submit 
adopted contingency measures to EPA by 2020 as required by CAA section 
182(e)(5). See CARB Resolution 11-22, July 21, 2011. These contingency 
measures must be adequate to produce emissions reductions sufficient, 
in conjunction with other approved plan provisions, to achieve the 
periodic emissions reductions required by CAA sections 182(b)(1) or 
(c)(2) and attainment by the applicable dates. See CAA 182(e)(5). EPA 
will approve or disapprove these contingency measures in accordance 
with CAA section 110.
    Based on the above discussion and evaluations, we propose to 
determine that the long-term strategy for the South Coast 8-Hour Ozone 
SIP satisfies the requirements of CAA 182(e)(5).
3. Proposed Actions on RACM Demonstration and Control Strategy
    As described above, the District evaluated a range of potentially 
available measures for inclusion in its 2007 Ozone Plan and committed 
to adopt those it found to be reasonably available for implementation 
in the South Coast nonattainment area. The process and the criteria the 
District used to select certain measures and reject others were 
consistent with EPA's RACM guidance. The evaluation processes 
undertaken by SCAG and the State were also consistent with EPA's RACM 
guidance. See e.g., General Preamble at 13560 and Seitz memo.
    Based on our review of these RACM analyses and the District's and 
California's adopted rules, as well as their commitments to adopt and 
implement additional control measures, we propose to find that there 
are, at this time, no additional reasonably available control measures 
(including reasonably available control technology) that would advance 
attainment of the 1997 8-hour ozone standard in the South Coast. 
Therefore, we propose to find that the South Coast 2007 AQMP, together 
with the 2007 State Strategy, provide for the implementation of all 
RACM as required by CAA section 172(c)(1).
    We propose to approve the SCAQMD's commitments to achieve specific 
aggregate reductions of NOX and VOC emissions by specific 
years as given in Table 4-2A of the 2007 AQMP, as revised by Tables 2 
and 3 of the 2007 Progress Report, Appendix F, and as shown in Table 2 
above.
    We propose to approve CARB's commitments to propose certain defined 
measures, as given in Table B-1 in Appendix B of the 2011 Progress 
Report, and Appendix B, Table B-1 in the 2011 Ozone SIP Revision. We 
also propose to approve CARB's commitment to achieve the total 
aggregate emissions reductions necessary to demonstrate RFP and to 
attain the 1997 8-hour ozone standard in the South Coast nonattainment 
area, as given in 2009 State Strategy Status Report, p. 20 and CARB 
Resolution 07-28, Attachment B, p. 4, and shown in Table 6 above. See 
CARB Resolution 07-28 (September 27, 2007), Appendix B, p. 4.
    Finally, we are proposing to approve CARB's and the District's 
long-term strategy commitments in the South Coast 2007 8-Hour Ozone 
Plan under the new technology provisions of CAA section 182(e)(5). This 
proposal is based on our proposed findings that these commitments 
satisfy the two criteria in CAA section 182(e)(5)(A) and (B). First, 
the South Coast 2007 8-Hour Ozone Plan does not rely on any of these 
new technology reductions to demonstrate RFP in any milestone year 
between 2008 and 2020. CARB has committed to achieve 241 tpd of 
NOX and 40 tpd of VOC reductions through new technology 
measures approved under section 182(e)(5) only in the attainment year 
(2023). We note that the amount and relative proportion of reductions 
from measures scheduled for long-term adoption under 182(e)(5), as 
compared to measures already adopted in regulatory form or scheduled 
for near-term adoption, should clearly decrease in any future SIP 
update, and that EPA will not approve a SIP revision that contains an 
increase in the amount or relative proportion of 182(e)(5) new 
technology measures without a convincing showing in a SIP revision that 
the technologies relied upon in the near-term rules have been found to 
be technologically infeasible or ineffective in achieving emissions 
reductions in the near-term.
    Second, CARB has submitted an enforceable commitment to submit 
adopted contingency measures to EPA by 2020 as required by CAA 
182(e)(5). See CARB Resolution 11-22, July 21, 2011. These contingency 
measures must be adequate to produce emissions reductions sufficient, 
in conjunction with other approved plan provisions, to achieve the 
periodic emissions reductions required by CAA section 182(b)(1) or 
(c)(2) and attainment by the applicable attainment date. See CAA 
182(e)(5). Following the State's submittal of these contingency 
measures, EPA will approve or disapprove the provisions in accordance 
with CAA section 110.

C. Attainment Demonstration

1. Requirements for Attainment Demonstrations
    CAA section 182(c)(2)(A) requires states with ozone nonattainment 
areas classified as serious or above to submit plans that demonstrate 
attainment of the applicable ambient air quality standard as 
expeditiously as practicable but no later than the outside date 
established in the CAA.\26\ The attainment demonstration is due within 
three years of the area's designation as nonattainment (40 CFR 51.908), 
and should include:
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \26\ EPA's regulation at 40 CFR 51.903(a) translates the maximum 
attainment periods in Table 1 of section 181, which are specifically 
linked to enactment of the 1990 CAA Amendments, for purposes of 
attaining the 1997 8-hour ozone NAAQS.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    (1) Technical analyses that locate and identify sources of 
emissions that are

[[Page 57884]]

contributing to violations of the 8-hour ozone NAAQS within the 
nonattainment area;
    (2) adopted measures with schedules for implementation and other 
means and techniques necessary and appropriate for attainment; and
    (3) contingency measures required under section 172(c)(9) of the 
CAA.
    See 70 FR 71612 at 71624.
    The requirements for the first two items are described in the 
sections on emissions inventories and RACM above (sections IV.A. and 
IV.C.) and in the sections on air quality modeling and attainment 
demonstration that follow immediately below. Requirements for the third 
item are described in the sections on the control strategy and the 
contingency measures (sections V.B. and V.F.), respectively.
2. Air Quality Modeling in the South Coast 2007 AQMP
    Below, we discuss the applicable statutory and regulatory 
requirements for modeled attainment demonstrations and EPA guidance on 
air quality modeling for the 1997 8-hour ozone standard, the air 
quality modeling analysis supporting the attainment demonstration in 
the State's submittal, and our evaluation of these modeling analyses as 
part of the attainment demonstration SIP.
a. CAA and Regulatory Requirements for 8-Hour Ozone Air Quality 
Modeling and EPA Guidance
    For any ozone nonattainment area classified as serious or above, 
section 182(c)(2)(A) of the CAA specifically requires the State to 
submit a modeled attainment demonstration based on a photochemical grid 
modeling evaluation or any other analytical method determined by the 
Administrator to be at least as effective as photochemical modeling. 
EPA's ozone implementation rule in 40 CFR section 51.908 also specifies 
this requirement and in addition requires that each attainment 
demonstration meet the requirements of section 51.112, including 
Appendix W to 40 CFR part 51, as interpreted in EPA guidance. See, 
e.g., ``Guidance on the Use of Models and Other Analyses for Air 
Quality Goals in Attainment Demonstrations for Ozone, PM2.5, 
and Regional Haze,'' April 2007 (hereafter referred to as ``EPA's 2007 
attainment demonstration guidance documents''). These guidance 
documents describe the criteria that an air quality model and its 
application should meet to qualify for use in an 8-hour ozone 
attainment demonstration. For more detail on EPA's evaluation of the 
modeling in the South Coast 8-hour ozone attainment demonstration, see 
the ``Modeling and Other Analyses Attainment Demonstration'' (section 
II.B.) of the TSD for today's proposal. The modeling section of the TSD 
also includes a complete list of applicable modeling guidance 
documents. These documents describe the components of the attainment 
demonstration, explain how the modeling and other analyses should be 
conducted, and provide overall guidance on the technical analyses for 
attainment demonstrations.
    As with any predictive tool, inherent uncertainties are associated 
with photochemical grid modeling. EPA's guidance recognizes these 
limitations and provides recommended approaches for considering other 
analytical evidence to help assess whether attainment of the NAAQS is 
likely. This process is called a weight of evidence (WOE) analysis.
    EPA's modeling guidance (updated in 1996, 1999, and 2002) discusses 
various WOE analyses. EPA's modeling guidance was updated in 2005 and 
2007 for the 1997 8-hour attainment demonstration procedures to include 
a WOE analysis as an integral part of any attainment demonstration. 
This guidance strongly recommends that all attainment demonstrations 
include supplemental analyses beyond the recommended modeling. These 
supplemental analyses would provide additional information such as data 
analyses, and emissions and air quality trends, which would help 
strengthen the conclusion based on the photochemical grid modeling. A 
WOE analysis is specifically recommended for inclusion in any 
attainment demonstration SIP where the modeling results predict Future 
Design Values (FDVs) ranging from 82 to less than 88 ppb (see EPA's 
2007 attainment demonstration guidance documents).
b. 8-Hour Attainment Demonstration Modeling and Weight of Evidence in 
the South Coast 2007 AQMP
i. Photochemical Grid Modeling Attainment Demonstration Results
    a. Photochemical Grid Model. The model selected for the Final 2007 
AQMP attainment demonstrations is the Comprehensive Air Quality Model 
with Extensions (CAMx), version 4.4 (Environ, 2006), using Statewide 
Air Pollution Research Center-99 (SAPRC-99) gas phase mechanisms 
(Carter, 2000).\27\ The modeling system (including the photochemical 
model, meteorological inputs, and chemical mechanism) is consistent 
with the previous advice of outside peer reviewers. CAMx is a state-of-
the-art air quality model that can simulate ozone and PM2.5 
concentrations together in a ``one-atmosphere'' approach for attainment 
demonstrations. CAMx is designed to integrate the output from both 
prognostic and diagnostic meteorological models.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \27\ Carter, W.P.L., May 8, 2000a. Documentation of the SAPRC-99 
chemical mechanism for VOC reactivity assessment. Report to the 
California Air Resources Board, Contracts 92-329 and 95-308.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    b. Episode Selection. Six meteorological episodes from three years 
are used as the basis for the plan. The 2003 AQMP benefited from the 
intensive monitoring conducted under the 1997 Southern California Ozone 
Study (SCOS 1997) where the August 4-7, 1997 episode was the 
cornerstone of the modeling analysis. One of the primary modeling 
episodes that was used in the 2003 AQMP, August 5-6, 1997, was also 
selected for this plan. In addition, five episodes that occurred during 
the Multiple Air Toxics Exposure Study III (MATES-III) sampling program 
in 2004 (August 7-8) and 2005 (May 21-22, July 15-19, August 4-6, and 
August 27-28) were selected.
    c. Model Performance. Model performance was evaluated in three 
zones in the South Coast Basin: the San Fernando Valley; the eastern 
San Gabriel, Riverside and San Bernardino Valleys; and Los Angeles and 
Orange County. Normalized Gross Bias, Normalized Gross Error, and Peak 
Prediction Accuracy were determined for each area. Although not a 
requirement for determining acceptable model performance, the 
performance statistics were compared to the EPA performance goals 
presented in guidance documents. The performance goals for Normalized 
Gross Error and Peak Prediction Accuracy were met in the eastern San 
Gabriel, Riverside and San Bernardino Valleys. In general, the 
statistic for bias (Normalized Gross Bias) tends to be negative, 
indicating that the model tends to slightly under-predict ozone. Based 
on their analysis, South Coast concludes and EPA agrees that model 
performance is acceptable for this application.
ii. Modeling Approaches for the SCAQMD Attainment Demonstration
    CAMx simulations were conducted for the base year 2002, and future-
year 2023 baseline and controlled emissions.\28\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \28\ Future year controlled emissions were estimated from the 
baseline emissions using the CEPA control factors for the 
simulations, are given in Table V-4-4 of the 2007 South Coast AQMP, 
Appendix V.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

[[Page 57885]]

    The ozone attainment demonstration relies on the use of site-
specific relative response factors (RRFs) being applied to the 2002 
weighted design values. The RRFs are determined from the future year 
controlled and the 2002 base year simulations. The initial screening 
for station days to be included in the attainment demonstration 
included the following criteria: (1) Having an observed concentration 
equaling or exceeding 85 ppb, and (2) a simulation predicted base year 
(1997, 2004 or 2005) concentration over 60 ppb. Additional criteria 
were added to the selection process as the simulations were evaluated. 
A minimum of five episode days are recommended to determine the site 
specific RRF. The selection criteria for the episode days and the 
process of applying the RRFs to the CAMx modeling are discussed in more 
detail in the TSD for today's action.
iii. Results of SCAQMD Modeling
    The results of the attainment demonstration for 2023 indicate that 
the Federal 1997 8-hour ozone standard would be attained by June 15, 
2024 at all monitors with the 2023 controlled emissions inventory. The 
attainment targets (420 tpd VOC and 114 tpd NOX) are based 
on both short-term and long-term control measures. With controls in 
place, it is expected that all stations in the South Coast ozone 
nonattainment area will meet the Federal 1997 8-hour ozone standard in 
calendar year 2023 (i.e., by June 15, 2024). The east Basin stations of 
Crestline and Fontana are projected to have the highest 8-hour ozone 
design values of 83 ppb and 81 ppb respectively. Both sites are 
downwind receptors along the primary wind transport route that moves 
precursor emissions and developing ozone eastward by the daily sea 
breeze. Future year projections of ozone along the northerly transport 
route through the San Fernando Valley indicate that the ozone design 
value in the Santa Clarita Valley will be 74 ppb, which is 
approximately 13 percent below the standard, in 2023.
    In addition to the monitor-based attainment test, the AQMP includes 
an unmonitored area analysis. This review is intended to ensure that a 
control strategy leads to reductions in ozone at other locations which 
could have baseline (and future) design values exceeding the NAAQS were 
a monitor deployed there. The unmonitored area analysis indicates 
projected 2024 controlled 8-hour ozone design concentrations at or 
below 84 ppb for all grid cells in the South Coast Air Basin.
c. EPA's Evaluation and Proposed Conclusion on the Modeling 
Demonstration
    Our evaluation of the air quality modeling analyses and supporting 
information provided in the South Coast 2007 Ozone SIP indicate that 
the South Coast area will attain the 1997 8-hour ozone standard by its 
attainment date of June 15, 2024. In addition to the attainment 
demonstration provided in the South Coast 2007 Ozone SIP, we have 
considered supplemental technical information, including ambient air 
quality monitoring data, which was not available at the time the 
attainment modeling was performed by SCAQMD. This information is 
discussed in more detail in the TSD. The modeling shows significant 
reductions in ozone from the base period. The modeling predicts values 
of 83 ppb or below at all of the twenty ozone monitoring stations. The 
most recent ambient air quality data that we have reviewed indicate 
that the area is on track to attain the 1997 8-hour ozone standard by 
2024. The peak ozone design values have dropped from 128 ppb in 2000-
2002 to 112 ppb in 2008-2010.
    Based on the analysis above and in the TSD, EPA proposes to find 
that the air quality modeling provides an adequate basis for the RACM, 
RFP and attainment demonstrations in the South Coast 2007 8-Hour Ozone 
Plan.
3. Enforceable Commitments in the Attainment Demonstration
    Table 8 below summarizes the measures that are relied upon in the 
South Coast 2007 AQMP's 8-hour ozone attainment demonstration to 
achieve the carrying capacities shown in Table 7. This attainment 
demonstration was updated by the 2011 Ozone SIP revision to reflect 
adjustments to future year baseline inventories and adopted controls.

   Table 7--Emissions Carrying Capacity Estimates for the South Coast
             Nonattainment Area for 8-Hour Ozone Attainment
             [Tons/day, based on summer planning inventory]
------------------------------------------------------------------------
                            NOX                                  VOC
------------------------------------------------------------------------
114.......................................................          420
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: South Coast 2007 AQMP, Table 5-6, page 5-21.

    As shown in Table 8, the majority of emissions reductions the State 
projects are needed for attaining the 8-hour ozone standard in the 
South Coast nonattainment area by 2024 come from baseline measures. 
These baseline measures include numerous adopted District and State 
measures that generally have been approved by EPA either through the 
SIP process or the CAA section 209 waiver process. See Appendices A and 
B of the TSD for a list of these measures. We have also accounted for 
ARB's improvements to the emissions inventories, discussed above in 
section IV.A, in the attainment year baseline emissions level (see 
Table 8, row D). The remaining reductions needed for attainment are to 
be achieved through the District's and CARB's enforceable commitments 
to achieve aggregate emission reductions in the South Coast either 
through defined control measures or through their commitments to 
develop new or improved technologies under CAA section 182(e)(5). Since 
the submittal of the South Coast 2007 AQMP and 2007 State Strategy, the 
District and CARB have adopted numerous control measures that have 
significantly reduced the amount of emissions reductions that still 
need to be achieved through these commitments. See Table 9.

                     Table 8--Summary of South Coast's 8-Hour Ozone Attainment Demonstration
                                         [Tons per summer planning day]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                               NOX                              VOC
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A......................  Revised 2002 baseline   1024...........................  881
                          emissions level.
B......................  Attainment target       114............................  420
                          level.
C......................  Total reductions        910............................  461
                          needed from 2002
                          baseline levels to
                          demonstrate
                          attainment (A-B).
D......................  Attainment year         493............................  529
                          baseline emissions
                          level (from 2011
                          Ozone SIP Revision
                          Supplement, ``new
                          2023 baseline'').
E......................  Reductions from         531............................  352
                          baseline measures and
                          improvements to the
                          emissions inventory
                          (A-D).

[[Page 57886]]

 
F......................  Reductions needed from  379............................  109
                          control strategy
                          measures including
                          reductions from new
                          technologies (D-B).
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: 2011 Ozone SIP Revision, Appendix B, and 2011 Ozone SIP Revision Supplement.

Table 9--Reductions Needed for Attainment Remaining as Commitments Based
                       on SIP-Creditable Measures
                 [Tons per summer planning day in 2023]
------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                           NOX                VOC
------------------------------------------------------------------------
A              Total reductions                   910                461
                needed from
                baseline and
                control strategy
                measures to attain.
B              Reductions from                    531                352
                baseline measures
                and emissions
                inventory
                improvements.
C              Total reductions         7.7 + 114.7 =      15.3 + 15.9 =
                from approved                   122.4               31.2
                measures
                (District--Table 2
                above, and CARB--
                Table 5 above).
D              Total reductions                 256.6               77.8
                remaining as
                commitments and
                reductions from
                new technology
                measures (A-B-C).
E              Reductions                        14.3               33.1
                remaining as CARB
                enforceable
                commitments \1\.
F              Reductions                         1.5                3.9
                remaining as
                District
                enforceable
                commitments \2\.
G              Total reductions                   241                 40
                remaining as
                reductions from
                new technologies
                (CAA section
                182(e)(5).
H              Percent of                          2%                 8%
                reductions needed
                for attainment
                from new control
                measures, not
                including
                reductions from
                new technologies
                [(E + F)/A].
------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ Calculated by subtracting from CARB's 2023 NOX commitment of 141 tpd
  and VOC commitment of 54 tpd (Table 8) the adjustments to baseline
  from State and Federal sources from 2011 Ozone SIP Revision
  Supplement, Attachment 1 (12 tpd NOX, 5 tpd VOC) and emissions
  reductions from currently SIP-creditable State measures from Table 5
  (114.7 tpd NOX, 15.9 tpd VOC).
\2\ From Table 2 above in section IV.B., difference between District
  commitments and SIP-creditable measures.

    As shown in Table 9, reductions in the projected baseline inventory 
from measures already adopted by the District and State (both prior to 
and as part of the South Coast 2007 AQMP and 2007 State Strategy), 
which EPA has approved/waived or proposed to approve, provide the great 
majority of the emissions reductions needed to demonstrate attainment 
of the 1997 8-hour ozone standard in the South Coast. The balance is in 
the form of either enforceable commitments to specific aggregate 
emissions reductions by the District and CARB, or emissions reductions 
from new or improved technologies under CAA section 182(e)(5). In this 
section, we discuss the enforceable commitments that are a part of the 
attainment demonstration in the South Coast 2007 Ozone Plan.\29\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \29\ Based on SIP-creditable measures adopted to date, the South 
Coast 2007 Ozone Plan does not rely on enforceable commitments to 
aggregate emissions reductions to demonstrate RFP or to meet any 
other applicable requirement of the CAA. Therefore, we discuss here 
only those enforceable commitments relied on to demonstrate 
attainment.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    We believe that, with respect to the 2007 South Coast 8-hour Ozone 
SIP, circumstances warrant the consideration of enforceable commitments 
as part of the attainment demonstration for the South Coast. As shown 
in Table 9 above, a substantial portion of NOX emissions 
reductions and the majority of the VOC reductions needed to demonstrate 
attainment in the South Coast come from rules and regulations that were 
adopted prior to 2007, i.e., from baseline measures. As a result of 
these State and District efforts, most sources in the South Coast 
nonattainment area are currently subject to stringent rules adopted and 
approved by EPA prior to the development of the 2007 State Strategy and 
the South Coast 2007 AQMP, leaving few opportunities (and generally 
more technologically and economically challenging ones) to further 
reduce emissions. In the South Coast 2007 AQMP and the 2007 State 
Strategy, the District and CARB identified potential control measures 
that could provide many of the additional emissions reductions needed 
for attainment. See 2007 Ozone Plan, Chapter 5 and 2007 State Strategy, 
Chapter 5. However, the timeline needed to develop, adopt, and 
implement these measures went beyond the November 2007 submittal date 
of the South Coast 8-hour Ozone SIP. These circumstances warrant the 
District's and CARB's reliance on enforceable commitments as part of 
the attainment demonstration in the South Coast 2007 AQMP and 2007 
State Strategy.
    Given the State's demonstrated need for reliance on enforceable 
commitments, we now consider the three factors EPA uses to determine 
whether the use of enforceable commitments in lieu of adopted measures 
to meet a CAA planning requirements is approvable: (a) Does the 
commitment address a limited portion of the statutorily-required 
program; (b) is the state capable of fulfilling its commitment; and (c) 
is the commitment for a reasonable and appropriate period of time.
a. Commitments are a Limited Portion of Required Reductions
    For the first factor, we look to see if the commitment addresses a 
limited portion of a statutory requirement, such as the amount of 
emissions reductions needed to demonstrate attainment in a 
nonattainment area. For this calculation, reductions assigned to the 
new technologies provision (CAA section 182(e)(5) are not counted as 
commitments.\30\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \30\ CAA section 182(e)(5) specifically allows EPA to approve an 
attainment demonstration that relies on reductions from new 
technologies. This provision is separate from the requirement in CAA 
section 172(c)(6) for enforceable emissions limitations under which 
enforceable commitments are considered. As a result, reductions 
attributed in the attainment demonstration to new technologies are 
not considered part of the State's enforceable commitments for 
purposes of determining the percentage of reductions needed for 
attainment that remain as commitments.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    As shown in Table 9 above, the remaining portions of the emission

[[Page 57887]]

reductions needed to demonstrate attainment of the 1997 8-hour ozone 
standard in the South Coast nonattainment area (i.e., of the State's 
total enforceable commitments), after accounting for State and District 
measures approved/waived by EPA since 2007 and emissions reduction 
commitments assigned to CAA section 182(e)(5) measures, are 15.8 tpd 
NOX and 37 tpd VOC. When compared to the total reductions 
needed to demonstrate attainment (not including the CAA section 
182(e)(5) reductions in the attainment demonstration), the remaining 
portion of the enforceable commitments represents approximately 2 
percent of the needed NOX reductions and 8 percent of the 
needed VOC reductions. Historically, EPA has approved SIPs with 
enforceable commitments in the range of 10 percent or less of the total 
needed reductions for attainment. See our approval of the SJV 
PM10 Plan at 69 FR 30005 (May 26, 2004), the SJV 1-hour 
ozone plan at 75 FR 10420 (March 8, 2010), the Houston-Galveston 1-hour 
ozone plan at 66 FR 57160 (November 14, 2001), proposed approval of the 
SJV 2007 PM2.5 SIP at 76 FR 41338 (July 13, 2011), and 
proposed approval of the South Coast PM2.5 SIP at 76 FR 
41562 (July 14, 2011). Thus, the State's commitment addresses a limited 
proportion of the required emission reductions.
b. The State Is Capable of Fulfilling its Commitment
    For the second factor, we consider whether the District and State 
are capable of fulfilling their commitments.
    As discussed above, CARB has adopted and submitted the 2009 State 
Strategy Status Report and the 2011 Ozone SIP Revision which update and 
revise the 2007 State Strategy. These submittals show that CARB has 
made significant progress in meeting its enforceable commitments for 
the South Coast 8-hour ozone nonattainment area and several other 
nonattainment areas in California. The District has also made 
significant progress in meeting its enforceable commitments for the 
attainment year of 2023. It has adopted rules that are projected to 
achieve additional reductions of NOX and VOC in future years 
as shown in Table 2 above. In addition to the rules discussed above, 
both CARB and the District have well-funded incentive grants programs 
to reduce emissions from the on- and off-road engine fleets. Reductions 
from several of these programs have yet to be quantified and/or 
credited in the attainment demonstration. See, for example, Tables 2 
and 3 in Appendix F of the 2011 Progress Report.
    Given the State's and District's efforts to date to reduce 
emissions, we believe that the State and District are capable of 
meeting their enforceable commitments to adopt measures that will 
reduce emissions of NOX and VOC to the levels needed to 
attain the 1997 8-hour ozone standard in the South Coast 8-hour ozone 
nonattainment area by the attainment date, as shown in Table 9.
c. The Commitment Is for a Reasonable and Appropriate Timeframe
    For the third and last factor, we consider whether the commitment 
is for a reasonable and appropriate period of time.
    In order to meet the commitments to adopt measures to reduce 
emissions to the levels needed to attain the 1997 8-hour ozone standard 
in the South Coast nonattainment area by 2023, the South Coast 2007 
AQMP and 2007 State Strategy include ambitious rule development, 
adoption, and implementation schedules. The State has committed to 
adopt the rules needed to achieve the few remaining reductions by 2023. 
We believe that this period is appropriate given the technological and 
economic challenges associated with the control measures that will be 
needed to achieve these reductions and the State's required procedures 
for development and adoption of these measures. In addition, these 
reductions are not needed to meet earlier RFP targets and the adoption 
and submission timeframe ensures adequate time for implementation by 
the beginning of the last full ozone season (2023) prior to the June 
15, 2024 attainment date. See Tables 2 and 4 above. Thus, the 
commitment is for a reasonable and appropriate period of time.
4. Proposed Action on Attainment Demonstration
    In order to approve a SIP's attainment demonstration, EPA must make 
several findings.
    First, we must find that the demonstration's technical bases, 
including the emissions inventories and air quality modeling, are 
adequate. As discussed above in section IV.A and IV.C.2, we are 
proposing to approve the revised base year emissions inventory, and to 
find the air quality modeling adequate to support the attainment 
demonstration.
    Second, we must find that the SIP provides for expeditious 
attainment through the implementation of all RACM. As discussed above 
in section IV.C., we are proposing to approve the RACM demonstration in 
the South Coast 2007 AQMP as meeting the requirements of CAA section 
172(c)(1).
    Third, we must find that the emissions reductions that are relied 
on for attainment are creditable and are sufficient to provide for 
attainment. As shown in Table 9, the South Coast 2007 AQMP relies 
primarily on adopted and approved/waived rules to achieve the emissions 
reductions needed to attain the 1997 8-hour ozone standards in the 
South Coast by June 15, 2024. The balance of the reductions projected 
to be needed for attainment is currently in the form of enforceable 
commitments to adopt measures to achieve aggregate tonnage reductions 
of VOC or NOX in the near term from available technologies 
and measures, and an enforceable commitment to adopt and submit in the 
longer term measures relying on the development and deployment of new 
technologies that will achieve specific aggregate tonnage reductions of 
VOC and NOX.
    EPA has previously accepted enforceable commitments in lieu of 
adopted control measures in attainment demonstrations when the 
circumstances warrant them and the commitments meet three criteria. As 
discussed above in section IV.C.3., we believe that circumstances here 
warrant the consideration of enforceable commitments, and that the 
three criteria are met: (1) The commitments constitute a limited 
portion of the required emissions reductions; (2) both the State and 
District are capable of meeting their commitments; and (3) the 
commitments are for an appropriate timeframe. Based on these 
evaluations, we are proposing to approve the enforceable commitments as 
part of the attainment demonstration.
    CAA section 182(e)(5) allows extreme ozone nonattainment area plans 
under certain conditions to include provisions for the development of 
new technologies in the SIP and allows EPA to approve attainment 
demonstrations based, in part, on those provisions. For the reasons 
discussed in section IV.B., we propose to find that California has met 
the conditions for relying on new technology provisions in its 
attainment demonstration for the South Coast nonattainment area.
    For the foregoing reasons, we propose to approve the attainment 
demonstration in the South Coast 2007 Ozone Plan.

[[Page 57888]]

D. Reasonable Further Progress Demonstration

1. Requirements for Reasonable Further Progress
    CAA Section 172(c)(2) requires that plans for nonattainment areas 
shall provide for reasonable further progress (RFP). RFP is defined in 
section 171(1) as ``such annual incremental reductions in emissions of 
the relevant air pollutant as are required by [Part D--Plan 
Requirements for Nonattainment Areas] or may reasonably be required by 
the Administrator for the purpose of ensuring attainment of the 
applicable [NAAQS] by the applicable date.'' CAA Section 182(b)(1) 
specifically requires that ozone nonattainment areas that are 
classified as moderate or above demonstrate a 15 percent reduction in 
ozone precursor emissions between the years of 1990 and 1996. For ozone 
nonattainment areas classified as serious or higher, section 
182(c)(2)(B) also requires a 3 percent per year reduction of ozone 
precursor emissions until attainment, in addition to the 15 percent 
reduction required under CAA 182(b)(1).
    CAA Section 182(b)(1)(D) prohibits the state from including 
emissions reductions from pre-1990 Federal motor vehicle programs when 
demonstrating RFP. In other words, the reductions from these programs 
are not creditable when demonstrating RFP.
    The ozone implementation rule for the 1997 8-hour ozone NAAQS 
interprets the RFP requirements for the purposes of the 1997 8-hour 
ozone standards, establishing requirements for RFP that depend on the 
area's classification as well as whether the area has an approved 15 
percent reduction plan for the 1-hour ozone standard that covers all of 
the 8-hour ozone nonattainment area. See 40 CFR 51.910(a) and 70 FR 
71612. In 1997, EPA approved a 15 percent rate of progress (ROP) plan 
for the South Coast, which covers the entire nonattainment area for the 
1997 8-hour ozone standard. See 62 FR 1150 (January 8, 1997). As a 
result, the State does not need to demonstrate another 15 percent 
reduction in VOC for this area. Instead, under the ozone implementation 
rule, the 8-hour ozone SIP for South Coast must provide for an average 
of 3 percent per year of VOC and/or NOX emissions reductions 
for (1) the 6-year period beginning January 1 of the year following the 
year used for the baseline and (2) all remaining 3-year periods after 
the first 6-year period out to the area's attainment date. 40 CFR 
51.910(a)(1)(ii)(B). Except as specifically provided in CAA section 
182(b)(1)(C), emissions reductions from all SIP-approved, federally 
promulgated, or otherwise SIP-creditable measures that occur after the 
baseline are creditable for purposes of demonstrating that the RFP 
targets are met.
    The RFP demonstration must calculate and exclude the non-creditable 
reductions described in CAA 182(b)(1)(D). These non-creditable 
reductions include emissions reductions from pre-1990 Federal motor 
vehicle programs. The method for calculating the target emissions 
levels is found in Appendix A to the preamble of the ozone 
implementation rule. See 70 FR 71612 at 71696.
2. RFP Demonstration in the South Coast 2007 AQMP
    California has made several submittals to address the RFP 
requirement for the 1997 8-hour ozone standard in the South Coast 8-
hour ozone nonattainment area. The original RFP demonstration is in 
Chapter 6 of the South Coast 2007 AQMP. The demonstration addresses 
NOX and VOC emissions and uses the 2002 annual average 
inventory as the baseline emissions inventory and 2023 as the 
attainment year. See South Coast 2007 AQMP, Table 6-2A and 6-2B. CARB 
submitted a revised RFP demonstration for the South Coast 8-hour ozone 
nonattainment area on July 29, 2011 as part of the 2011 Ozone SIP 
Revision. The 2011 submission reflected revisions to several 
significant control measures since the submission of the SIP in 2007, 
as well as changes to the on-road diesel and off-road construction 
emissions estimates. Table 10 below summarizes the South Coast ozone 
RFP demonstration as revised by the 2011 Ozone SIP Revision.

      Table 10--2011 Revisions to the 8-Hour Ozone SIP Reasonable Further Progress Calculations South Coast
                                          [Summer season, tons per day]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                    2002      2008     2011     2014     2017     2020     2023
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Baseline ROG....................................     880.5    632.0    579.9    535.2    519.8    513.9   513.4.
CA MVCP/RVP Adjustment..........................       0.0     56.1     73.0     86.6     93.7     98.3   101.6.
RACT Corrections................................       0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0     0.0.
Adjusted 2002 Baseline ROG in milestone year....     880.5    824.5    807.6    793.9    786.8    782.3   778.9.
RFP commitment for ROG reductions from new             0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0     0.0.
 measures.......................................
Future Year ROG with existing and proposed        ........    632.0    579.9    535.2    519.8    513.9   513.4.
 measures.......................................
Required % change since previous milestone year   ........      18%       9%       9%       9%       9%      9%.
 (ROG or NOX) compared to 2002..................
Required % change since 2002 (ROG or NOX).......  ........      18%      27%      36%      45%      54%     63%.
Target ROG levels...............................  ........    676.1    599.8    533.4    479.0    431.7   389.8.
Apparent shortfall in ROG.......................  ........    -44.1    -19.9      1.7     40.8     82.2   123.6.
Apparent shortfall in ROG, %....................  ........    -5.3%    -2.5%     0.2%     5.2%    10.5%   15.9%.
ROG shortfall previously provided by NOX          ........       0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.2%     5.2%   10.5%.
 substitution, %................................
Actual ROG shortfall, %.........................  ........    -5.3%    -2.5%     0.2%     5.0%     5.3%    5.4%.
Baseline NOX....................................    1024.1    728.3    591.2    532.1    478.8    428.2   378.4.
CA MVCP Adjustment..............................       0.0     64.7     80.6     93.0     98.3    102.4   105.9.
Adjusted 2002 Baseline NOX in milestone year....    1024.1    959.4    943.4    931.1    925.8    921.7   918.2.
RFP commitment for NOX reductions from new             0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0     0.0.
 measures.......................................
Change in NOX since 2002........................  ........    231.1    352.3    398.9    447.0    493.5   539.7.
Change in NOX since 2002, %.....................  ........    24.1%    37.3%    42.8%    48.3%    53.5%   58.8%.
NOX reductions since 2002 already used for RFP    ........     0.0%     3.0%     3.0%     3.2%     8.2%   13.5%.
 substitution and contingency through last
 milestone year, %..............................
NOX reductions since 2002 available for RFP       ........    24.1%    34.3%    39.8%    45.1%    45.4%   45.3%.
 substitution and contingency in this milestone
 year, %........................................
Change in NOX since 2002 used for ROG             ........     0.0%     0.0%     0.2%     5.0%     5.3%    5.4%.
 substitution in this milestone year, %.........

[[Page 57889]]

 
Change in NOX since 2002 available for            ........     3.0%     3.0%     3.0%     3.0%     3.0%    3.0%.
 contingency in this milestone year, %..........
Change in NOX since 2002 surplus after meeting    ........    21.1%    34.3%    39.6%    40.1%    40.0%   39.9%.
 substitution and contingency needs in this
 milestone year, %..............................
RFP Met?........................................  ........      YES      YES      YES      YES      YES      YES
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: CARB 2011 Ozone SIP Revision, Appendix A, Table A-1.

3. Proposed Action on the RFP Demonstration
    CARB has correctly calculated the RFP target levels for the 
appropriate years following the method provided in the ozone 
implementation rule and preamble. See 40 CFR 51.910 and 70 FR 71612 at 
71631-71650. As shown in Table 10, the South Coast 2007 8-hour Ozone 
SIP provides for RFP in each milestone year, consistent with applicable 
CAA requirements and EPA guidance. We propose, therefore, to approve 
the RFP demonstration under sections 182(b)(1) and 182(c)(2) of the 
CAA.

E. Transportation Control Strategies and Transportation Control 
Measures and Vehicle Miles Travelled Offset Emissions Increases From 
VMT Increases, To Provide for RFP and Attainment

1. Requirements for Transportation Control Strategies and 
Transportation Control Measures To Offset Emissions Growth, To Provide 
for RFP and Attainment
    CAA section 182(d)(1)(A) requires that areas classified as severe 
or extreme submit transportation control strategies (TCSs) and 
transportation control measures (TCMs) sufficient to offset any growth 
in emissions from growth in VMT or the number of vehicle trips, and to 
provide (along with other measures) the reductions needed to meet the 
applicable RFP requirement. CAA section 182(d)(1)(A) also requires that 
states choose and implement such measures as are specified in section 
108(f), to the extent needed to demonstrate attainment. In selecting 
the measures, Congress directed that States ``should ensure adequate 
access to downtown, other commercial and residential areas, and should 
avoid measures that increase or relocate emissions and congestion 
rather than reduce them.'' CAA 182(d)(1)(A).
    EPA believes that it is appropriate to treat the three required 
elements of section 182(d)(1)(A) (i.e., offsetting emissions growth, 
attainment of the RFP reduction, and attainment of the ozone NAAQS) as 
separable. As to the first element of CAA section 182(d)(1)(A) (i.e., 
offsetting emissions growth), EPA has historically interpreted this CAA 
provision to allow areas to meet the requirement by demonstrating that 
emissions from motor vehicles decline each year through the attainment 
year. General Preamble at 13521, 13522.\31\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \31\ See also 60 FR 48896 (September 21, 1995), approval of 
Illinois' vehicle miles traveled plan for the Chicago area; 62 FR 
23410 (April 30, 1997) and 62 FR 35100 (June 30, 1997), proposed and 
final approval of New Jersey's 15 percent ROP plan and other 
provisions for the New York-New Jersey-Connecticut ozone 
nonattainment area; 66 FR 23849 (May 10, 2001), approval of New 
York's attainment demonstration and related provisions for the New 
York-New Jersey-Connecticut ozone nonattainment area; 66 FR 57247 
(November 14, 2001), approval of the VMT offset plan for the 
Houston-Galveston ozone nonattainment area; 70 FR 25688 (May 13, 
2005), approval of the Washington, DC area's 1-hour attainment 
demonstration and related provisions; and 70 FR 34358 (June 14, 
2005), approval of Atlanta's VMT plan.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

2. Transportation Control Strategies and Transportation Control 
Measures To Offset Emissions Growth, To Provide for RFP and Attainment 
in the South Coast 2007 Ozone SIP
    Information in Table 6-12 on page 6-27 of the South Coast AQMP 
reproduced in Table 11 shows that on-road motor vehicle emissions of 
VOC and NOX decline steadily in the South Coast from 2002 to 
2023. This decline in emissions is due to EPA's and California's on-
road mobile source programs, California's clean fuels and SmogCheck 
programs, and CARB's in-use truck and bus rule. As discussed above in 
section IV.B, these programs are fully creditable for SIP planning 
purposes in attainment and RFP demonstrations, including demonstrating 
compliance with section 182(d)(1). The on-road emissions in Table 11 
are calculated using EMFAC2007 (the most recent EPA-approved mobile 
source emissions model in California) and the same transportation 
activity projections used to develop the RFP and attainment 
demonstrations and transportation conformity motor vehicle emissions 
budgets in the South Coast 2007 Ozone Plan. South Coast 2007 AQMP, p. 
6-23 and 6-27.

                     Table 11--On-Road Motor Vehicle Emissions in the South Coast 2002-2023
                                  [Summer planning inventory, tons per day] 1 2
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                       Baseline                            Remaining
                  Year                   -----------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                 VOC               NOX               VOC               NOX
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2002....................................               360               611               360               611
2003....................................               341               595               341               595
2004....................................               321               579               321               579
2005....................................               302               563               302               563
2006....................................               273               518               273               518
2007....................................               243               472               243               472
2008....................................               214               441               210               438
2009....................................               199               419               195               413

[[Page 57890]]

 
2010....................................               186               379               164               330
2011....................................               176               355               154               291
2012....................................               166               331               144               252
2013....................................               157               309               135               219
2014....................................               148               287               126               191
2015....................................               142               269               119               174
2016....................................               135               250               113               162
2017....................................               129               232               109               160
2018....................................               124               216               101               135
2019....................................               119               200                96               120
2020....................................               114               184                93               112
2021....................................               110               176               91*                78
2022....................................               107               169               88*                52
2023....................................               103               161                86                27
2024....................................                95               146                76                24
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: South Coast 2007 AQMP, Chapter 6, Table 6-12.
\1\ These values were incorrectly listed as 88 for 2021 and 85 for 2022 in the 2007 South Coast AQMP. See
  Letter, Elaine Chang, DrPH, Deputy Executive Officer, SCAQMD, to Wienke Tax, EPA Region 9, Air Division, dated
  August 12, 2011 in the docket for today's action.
\2\ ''Baseline'' emissions account for controls adopted prior to the 2007 AQMP. ``Remaining'' emissions include
  the impacts of economic growth and implementation of the plan's control strategy.

    As described above in section IV.B., SCAG evaluated a wide variety 
of transportation control strategies and measures, including those 
measures listed in CAA section 108(f), and determined that there were 
no combinations of reasonable measures that would expedite attainment 
of the 8-hour ozone standard in the South Coast. See South Coast 2007 
AQMP, Appendix IV-C.
3. Evaluation and Conclusions
    Because both VOC and NOX emissions from on-road mobile 
sources decline steadily over the entire time period covered by the 
South Coast 2007 Ozone Plan, the SIP need not include additional TCSs 
and TCMs to offset growth in motor vehicle emissions from growth in 
VMT. We propose, therefore, to find that the South Coast 2007 8-hour 
ozone SIP, as corrected on August 12, 2011, meets the requirement in 
CAA section 182(d)(1)(A) to include TCSs and TCMs sufficient to offset 
any growth in emissions from growth in VMT or the number of vehicle 
trips.
    In Association of Irritated Residents v. EPA, 632 F.3d 584 (9th 
Cir. 2011), the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit held that, 
with respect to the first element, section 182(d)(1)(A) of the CAA 
requires States to adopt transportation control measures and strategies 
whenever vehicle emissions are projected to be higher than they would 
have been had vehicle miles traveled not increased, even when aggregate 
vehicle emissions are actually decreasing. EPA has filed a petition for 
rehearing on this issue. Docket Nos. 09-71383 and 09-71404 
(consolidated), Docket Entry 41-1, Petition for Panel Rehearing.
    The Ninth Circuit has yet to issue its mandate in the Association 
of Irritated Residents case, and EPA has not adopted the court's 
interpretation for the reasons set forth in the Agency's petition for 
rehearing, pending a final decision by the court. If the court denies 
the Agency's petition for rehearing and issues its mandate before EPA 
issues a final rule on the South Coast 2007 Ozone SIP, then we 
anticipate that we would not be able to finalize approval of the South 
Coast 2007 Ozone SIP with respect to the first element (i.e., 
offsetting emissions growth) of section 182(d)(1)(A). Therefore, in 
today's action, and in the alternative to the proposed approval, we are 
simultaneously proposing to disapprove the South Coast 2007 Ozone SIP 
with respect to the first element (i.e., offsetting emissions growth) 
of section 182(d)(1)(A) based on the plan's failure to include 
sufficient transportation control strategies and TCMs to offset the 
emissions from growth in VMT. If EPA were to finalize the proposed 
disapproval, the area would be eligible for a protective finding under 
the transportation conformity rule because the submitted SIP contains 
adopted control measures and enforceable commitments that fully satisfy 
the emissions reductions requirements for reasonable further progress 
and attainment.\32\ 40 CFR 93.120(a)(3)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \32\ An area would not be eligible for a protective finding 
under the transportation conformity regulation if EPA finalizes a 
disapproval of a control strategy implementation plan revision 
(i.e., a plan that demonstrates reasonable further progress or 
attainment) because the plan revision does not contain adopted 
control measures or written commitments to enforceable control 
measures that fully satisfy the emissions reductions requirements 
relevant to the statutory provision for which the implementation 
plan revision was submitted. 40 CFR 93.120(a)(3)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    As discussed above in section IV.D., we are proposing to find that 
the South Coast 2007 8-Hour Ozone SIP provides for RFP consistent with 
all applicable CAA and EPA regulatory requirements. Therefore, we also 
propose to find that the SIP meets requirement in CAA section 
182(d)(1)(A) to include TCSs and TCMs as necessary to provide (along 
with other measures) the reductions needed to meet the applicable RFP 
requirement.
    Finally, as discussed in section IV.B. and IV.C. above, we are 
proposing to find that the South Coast 2007 8-Hour Ozone SIP provides 
for expeditious attainment of the 1997 8-hour ozone standard. 
Therefore, we propose to find that the SIP meets the requirement in CAA 
section 182(d)(1)(A) to include strategies and measures to the extent 
needed to demonstrate attainment.

F. Contingency Measures

1. Requirements for Contingency Measures
    Under the CAA, ozone nonattainment areas classified under subpart 2 
as moderate or above must include in their SIPs contingency measures 
consistent with sections 172(c)(9) and 182(c)(9). Contingency measures 
are additional

[[Page 57891]]

measures to be implemented in the event the area fails to meet an RFP 
milestone or fails to attain by the applicable attainment date. These 
contingency measures must be fully adopted rules or control measures 
that are ready to be implemented quickly upon failure to meet the 
milestones or attainment. The SIP should contain trigger mechanisms for 
the contingency measures, specify a schedule for implementation, and 
indicate that the measure will be implemented without significant 
further action by the State or by EPA. See 68 FR 32802 at 32837 and 70 
FR 71612 at 71650.
    Additional guidance on the CAA contingency measure provisions is 
found in the General Preamble, 57 FR at 13510-13512 and 13520. The 
guidance indicates that states should adopt and submit contingency 
measures sufficient to provide a 3 percent emissions reduction from the 
adjusted RFP baseline. EPA concludes this level of reductions is 
generally acceptable to offset emission increases while States are 
correcting their SIPs. These reductions should be beyond what is needed 
to meet the attainment and/or RFP requirement. States may use 
reductions of either VOC or NOX or a combination of both to 
meet the contingency measure requirements. 57 FR at 13520, footnote 6.
    EPA guidance provides that contingency measures may be implemented 
early, i.e., prior to the milestone or attainment date.\33\ Consistent 
with this policy, States are allowed to use excess reductions from 
already adopted measures to meet the CAA sections 172(c)(9) and 
182(c)(9) contingency measures requirement. This is because the purpose 
of contingency measures is to provide extra reductions that are not 
relied on for RFP or attainment, and that will provide a cushion while 
the plan is being revised to fully address the failure to meet the 
required milestone. Nothing in the CAA precludes a State from 
implementing such measures before they are triggered. This approach has 
been approved by EPA in numerous SIPs. See 62 FR 15844 (April 3, 1997) 
(approval of the Indiana portion of the Chicago area 15 percent ROP 
plan); 62 FR 66279 (December 18, 1997) (approval of the Illinois 
portion of the Chicago area 15 percent ROP plan); 66 FR 30811 (June 8, 
2001) (proposed approval of the Rhode Island post-1996 ROP plan); 66 FR 
586 and 66 FR 634 (January 3, 2001) (approval of the Massachusetts and 
Connecticut 1-hour ozone attainment demonstrations). In the only 
adjudicated challenge to this approach, the court upheld it. See LEAN 
v. EPA, 382 F.3d 575 (5th Cir. 2004). 70 FR 71612 at 71651.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \33\ Memorandum, G.T. Helms, Chief, Ozone/Carbon Monoxide 
Programs Branch to Air Directors, ``Contingency Measures for Ozone 
and Carbon Monoxide (CO) Redesignations,'' June 1, 1992.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    In addition, CAA section 182(e)(5) authorizes EPA to ``approve 
provisions of an implementation plan for an Extreme Area which 
anticipate development of new control techniques or improvement of 
existing control techniques, and an attainment demonstration based on 
such provisions,'' if the State meets certain criteria. CAA 182(e)(5). 
Such plan provisions may include enforceable commitments to submit, at 
a later date, contingency measures for failure to attain under CAA 
section 172(c)(9), in addition to the contingency measures to be 
implemented if the anticipated technologies approved under section 
182(e)(5) do not achieve planned reductions. These contingency measures 
must be submitted no later than three years before proposed 
implementation of the plan provisions and approved or disapproved by 
EPA in accordance with CAA section 110. Id.
2. Contingency Measures in the South Coast 2007 AQMP
    The attainment plan for the South Coast nonattainment area includes 
contingency measures to be implemented if the area fails to attain by 
its attainment date or fails to meet RFP requirements. The contingency 
measures for the South Coast nonattainment area are described in 
Chapter 9 of the South Coast 2007 AQMP, discussed in more detail in 
Appendix IV-A, section 2 of the AQMP, and also discussed in Appendix D 
of the 2007 State Strategy as updated on February 1, 2008. The 
provisions were again updated in CARB's 2011 Ozone SIP Revision, 
Appendix A.
    Contingency measures for failure to make RFP. To provide for 
contingency measures for failure to make RFP, the SIP relies on surplus 
NOX reductions in the RFP demonstration. See 2011 Ozone SIP 
Revision, Attachment A, p. A-1. See also Table 10 above.
    Contingency measures for failure to attain. To provide for 
contingency measures for failure to attain, the SIP relies on the 
additional incremental emissions reductions resulting from fleet 
turnover in calendar year 2024. This includes the incremental 
additional emissions reductions that will occur in 2024 (the year after 
the attainment year) from the continuing implementation of both on- and 
off-road motor vehicle controls. For the South Coast, these reductions 
are 2 tpd of NOX and 1 tpd of VOC. See CARB 2011 Ozone SIP 
Supplement, Attachment 2.
    Additionally, as discussed above in section IV.B., we are proposing 
to determine that CARB and the SCAQMD have satisfied the criteria in 
section 182(e)(5) for reliance on the new technology provision as part 
of the attainment demonstration in the South Coast 8-Hour Ozone SIP. 
Based on the State's anticipated development of these new technologies, 
CARB has submitted an enforceable commitment to submit, no later than 
2020, additional contingency measures under CAA section 182(e)(5) that 
meet the requirements for attainment contingency measures in CAA 
section 172(c)(9), in addition to contingency measures to be 
implemented if the anticipated long-term measures approved pursuant to 
section 182(e)(5) do not achieve planned reductions. CARB Resolution 
11-22, July 2011, p. 4.
3. Proposed Action on the Contingency Measures
    Contingency measures for failure to make RFP. As discussed above in 
section IV.D., we are proposing to approve the South Coast 2007 8-Hour 
Ozone SIP's RFP demonstration. As seen from the RFP demonstration in 
Table 10, there are sufficient excess reductions of NOX in 
each milestone year beyond those needed to meet the next RFP percent 
reduction requirement to provide the 3 percent of adjusted baseline 
emissions reductions needed to meet the RFP contingency measure 
requirement for 2011, 2014, 2017, and 2020.
    No RFP contingency measures are needed for 2008, since the 2011 
Ozone SIP Revision demonstrates that South Coast has already met its 
2008 milestone. See Table 10 above. As a result, contingency measures 
for failure to meet the 2008 RFP benchmark would never be triggered and 
thus are not needed.
    Contingency measures for failure to attain. The incremental 
additional emissions reductions that will occur in 2024 (the year after 
the attainment year) from the continuing implementation of both on- and 
off-road motor vehicle controls may be used to meet the contingency 
measure requirement for failure to attain. For the South Coast, these 
reductions are 2 tpd of NOX and 1 tpd of VOC. See 2011 Ozone 
SIP Revision Supplement, Attachment 2.
    In addition, based on our proposal to determine that the State has 
satisfied the criteria in section 182(e)(5) for reliance on long-term 
measures as part of the attainment demonstration in the South Coast 8-
Hour Ozone SIP, we propose to

[[Page 57892]]

approve CARB's enforceable commitment to submit no later than 2020, 
additional contingency measures under CAA section 182(e)(5) which meet 
the requirements for attainment contingency measures in CAA section 
172(c)(9), in addition to contingency measures to be implemented if the 
anticipated long-term measures approved pursuant to section 182(e)(5) 
do not achieve planned reductions.\34\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \34\ These contingency measures should, at a minimum, ensure 
that an appropriate level of emissions reduction progress continues 
to be made if attainment is not achieved and additional planning by 
the State is needed. See General Preamble at 13524.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Accordingly, we propose to approve the RFP and attainment 
contingency measures in the South Coast 2007 Ozone SIP under CAA 
sections 172(c)(9) and 182(c)(9), based in part on CARB's commitment to 
submit by 2020 additional contingency measures meeting the requirements 
of CAA sections 172(c)(9) and 182(e)(5). Following the State's 
submittal of these additional contingency measures, EPA will approve or 
disapprove the provisions in accordance with CAA section 110.

G. Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets for Transportation Conformity

    CAA Section 176(c) requires Federal actions in nonattainment and 
maintenance areas to conform to the SIP's goals of eliminating or 
reducing the severity and number of violations of the NAAQS and 
achieving expeditious attainment of the standard. Conformity to the 
SIP's goals means that such actions will not (1) cause or contribute to 
violations of a NAAQS, (2) worsen the severity of an existing 
violation, or (3) delay timely attainment of any NAAQS or any interim 
milestone.
    Actions that involve Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) or 
Federal Transit Administration (FTA) funding or approval are subject to 
EPA's transportation conformity rule, which is codified in 40 CFR part 
93, subpart A. Under this rule, metropolitan planning organizations 
(MPOs) in nonattainment and maintenance areas coordinate with state and 
local air quality and transportation agencies, EPA, FHWA, and FTA to 
demonstrate that an area's regional transportation plans (RTP) and 
transportation improvement programs (TIP) conform to the applicable 
SIP. This demonstration is typically done by showing that estimated 
emissions from existing and planned highway and transit systems are 
less than or equal to the motor vehicle emissions budgets (budgets) 
contained in the SIP. An attainment, maintenance, or RFP SIP 
establishes budgets for the attainment year, each required RFP year or 
last year of the maintenance plan, as appropriate. Budgets are 
generally established for specific years and specific pollutants or 
precursors.
    Ozone attainment and RFP plans establish budgets for NOX 
and VOC. See 40 CFR 93.102(b)(2)(i).
    Before an MPO may use budgets in a submitted SIP, EPA must first 
either determine that the budgets are adequate or approve the budgets. 
In order for us to find the budgets adequate and approvable, the 
submittal must meet the conformity adequacy requirements of 40 CFR 
93.118(e)(4) and (5) and be approvable under all pertinent SIP 
requirements. To meet these requirements, the budgets must be 
consistent with the approvable attainment and RFP demonstrations and 
reflect all of the motor vehicle control measures contained in the 
attainment and RFP demonstrations. See 40 CFR 93.118(e)(4)(iii), (iv) 
and (v).
2. Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets in the South Coast 2007 8-Hour Ozone 
SIP
    As submitted on November 28, 2007, the 2007 South Coast AQMP 
included a set of ozone precursor budgets for VOC and NOX 
for RFP years 2008, 2011, 2014, 2017 and 2020 and an attainment year 
budget for 2023. On April 30, 2008, CARB submitted a SIP revision that 
replaced the original set of 8-hour ozone budgets with two sets of 
replacement budgets. CARB labeled these sets as ``baseline'' and ``SIP-
based'' budgets with sets of 8-hour ozone budgets for RFP years 2008, 
2011, 2014, 2017, 2020, the attainment year 2023, and analysis year 
2030. See CARB Resolution 07-05, which revised the budgets in the 2007 
South Coast AQMP as adopted by the District, and which was included in 
the November 28, 2007 submission.
    EPA Region 9 sent a letter to the CARB on May 7, 2008 stating that 
the ``baseline'' motor vehicle emissions budgets in the amended 2007 
South Coast SIP for the reasonable further progress (RFP) milestone 
years of 2008, 2011, 2014, 2017, and 2020 were adequate. We found the 
``SIP-based'' motor vehicle emissions budgets in the amended 2007 South 
Coast SIP inadequate for transportation conformity purposes. The 
amended 2007 South Coast SIP included ``SIP-based'' budgets for 2008, 
2011, 2014, 2017, 2020, and 2023. The State has included additional on-
road mobile source emissions reductions in the ``SIP-based'' budgets 
from the 2007 State Strategy for the California SIP. The ``baseline'' 
budgets include no such reductions but rather reflect emissions 
reductions from CARB rules that were adopted as of October 2006. EPA 
has determined that the ``SIP-based'' budgets are inadequate because 
all of the ``SIP-based'' budgets after 2009 include new emission 
reductions that do not result from specific or enforceable control 
measures. Our notice of adequacy/inadequacy of the budgets was 
published on May 15, 2008 at 73 FR 28110 (corrected on June 18, 2008 at 
73 FR 34837), and was effective on May 30, 2008. More information on 
this finding can be found in the TSD for today's action.
    CARB submitted revised budgets for the South Coast nonattainment 
area and their documentation in Appendices A and C, respectively, of 
the 2011 Ozone SIP Revisions. The revised budgets are for 
NOX and VOC for the RFP years of 2011, 2014, 2017 and 2020, 
and the attainment year of 2023. No budgets were included for the RFP 
year of 2008 because it is no longer applicable as a conformity 
analysis year. Additional information associated with the motor vehicle 
emission budget calculations were provided in Attachment 1 of the CARB 
Ozone SIP Revision supplement and an electronic mail from CARB.\35\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \35\ See electronic mail from Douglas Ito, Chief, Air Quality 
and Transportation Planning Branch, CARB, to Elizabeth Adams, Deputy 
Director, Air Division, EPA Region 9, dated August 11, 2011.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

3. Proposed Action on the Revised Budgets
    As part of its review of the budgets' approvability, EPA has 
evaluated the revised budgets using our adequacy criteria in 40 CFR 
93.318(e)(4) and (5). As documented in Table H-3 in the TSD, we found 
that they meet each adequacy criterion. We have completed our detailed 
review of the 2007 South Coast 8-hour Ozone SIP and supplemental 
submittals including the 2011 Ozone SIP Revision and 2011 Ozone SIP 
Supplement, and are proposing to approve the SIP's attainment and RFP 
demonstrations. We have also reviewed the proposed budgets submitted 
with the 2011 Ozone SIP Revision and have found that they are 
consistent with the attainment and RFP demonstrations, were based on 
control measures that have already been adopted and implemented, and 
meet all other applicable statutory and regulatory requirements 
including the adequacy criteria in 40 CFR 93.118(e)(4) and (5). 
Therefore, we are proposing to

[[Page 57893]]

approve the 2011, 2014, 2017, 2020, and 2023 budgets as shown in Table 
12.

                     Table 12--Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets in the South Coast 2007 8-Hour Ozone SIP as Revised on July 21, 2011
                                                                  [Tons per summer day]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                             2011                2014                2017                2020                2023
                                                     ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                         VOC       NOX       VOC       NOX       VOC       NOX       VOC       NOX       VOC       NOX
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
South Coast Air Basin...............................      172       328       136       277       119       224       108       185        99       140
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: ``8-Hour Ozone State Implementation Plan Revisions and Technical Revisions to the PM2.5 State Implementation Plan Transportation Conformity
  Budgets for the South Coast and San Joaquin Valley Air Basins,'' Appendix C, submitted July 29, 2011.

    EPA is not required under its transportation conformity rule to 
find budgets adequate prior to proposing approval of them. However, we 
will complete the adequacy review of these budgets either prior to or 
concurrently with our final action on South Coast 2007 8-Hour Ozone 
SIP. We will also post the revised budgets on EPA's adequacy review Web 
page.
    If the budgets are found adequate and/or the proposed approval of 
the budgets is finalized, then these budgets will replace the budgets 
previously found adequate and SCAG and the U.S. Department of 
Transportation will be required to use the new budgets in 
transportation conformity determinations after the effective date of 
the approval or adequacy finding, whichever is earlier. For conformity 
determinations, the plan emissions should be used at the same level of 
accuracy as in the revised updated budgets from the plan (see Section H 
of the TSD for more conformity implementation details).
    As stated in section IV.E., if we were to finalize a disapproval 
with respect to the plan's section 182(d)(1)(A) element, then the area 
would be eligible for a protective finding under the transportation 
conformity rule because the submitted SIP contains adopted control 
measures and enforceable commitments that fully satisfy the emissions 
reductions requirements for reasonable further progress and attainment. 
40 CFR 93.120(a)(3).

H. Other Clean Air Act Requirements Applicable to Extreme Ozone 
Nonattainment Areas

    In addition to the requirements discussed above, Title I, subpart D 
of the CAA includes other provisions applicable to extreme ozone 
nonattainment areas such as the South Coast nonattainment area. Below, 
we discuss the current status of each of these requirements for 
informational purposes only.
1. Enhanced Vehicle Inspection and Maintenance (I/M) Requirement
    CAA section 182(c)(3) requires states with ozone nonattainment 
areas classified under subpart 2 as serious or above to implement an 
enhanced motor vehicle inspection and maintenance (I/M) program in 
those areas. The requirements for those programs are provided in 
section 182(c)(3) and 40 CFR part 51, subpart S.
    On July 1, 2010 (75 FR 38023), EPA approved California's inspection 
and maintenance program in the South Coast as meeting the requirements 
of the CAA and applicable EPA regulations for enhanced I/M programs.
2. Reformulated Gasoline Program
    As an extreme ozone nonattainment area for the 1-hour ozone 
standard, the South Coast was covered under the Federal reformulated 
gasoline (RFG) program. See CAA section 211(k)(10)(D). As an 8-hour 
ozone nonattainment area, the South Coast continues to be covered under 
the Federal RFG program. See 40 CFR 80.70(m)(1)(i) and 70 FR 71685. 
California has its own RFG program (California Phase III RFG (CaRFG3)), 
which also applies in the South Coast nonattainment area. EPA approved 
CaRFG3 program into the California SIP on May 12, 2010. See 75 FR 
26633.
3. New Source Review
    CAA section 182(a)(2)(C) requires states to develop SIP revisions 
containing permit programs for each of its ozone nonattainment areas. 
The SIP revisions are to include requirements for permits in accordance 
with CAA 172(c)(5) and 173 for the construction and operation of each 
new or modified major stationary source (with respect to ozone) 
anywhere in the nonattainment area. See also CAA section 182(e). EPA's 
implementing regulations for nonattainment new source review (NSR) 
programs are in 40 CFR 51.165, and guidance specific to ozone 
nonattainment areas was provided in the preamble to the 8-hour ozone 
implementation rule, 70 FR 71612 at 71671-71684.
    On December 4, 1996 (61 FR 64291), EPA approved SCAQMD's NSR rules 
(the District's Regulation XIII) for the South Coast air basin as 
satisfying the NSR requirements in title I, part D of the CAA for 
``extreme'' ozone nonattainment areas. See also 64 FR 13514 (March 19, 
1999) and 71 FR 35157 (June 19, 2006).
4. Clean-fuel Vehicle Program
    CAA sections 182(c)(4)(A) and 246 require states to submit a SIP 
revision for EPA approval that includes measures to implement the 
Clean-Fuel Vehicle Program in serious and above ozone nonattainment 
areas. Section 182(c)(4)(B) of the Act allows states to ``opt-out'' of 
the clean-fuel vehicle fleet program by submitting for EPA approval a 
SIP revision consisting of a program or programs that will result in at 
least equivalent long term reductions in ozone-producing and toxic air 
emissions.
    In 1994, CARB submitted a SIP revision to opt-out of the Federal 
clean fuel fleet program demonstrating that its low-emission vehicle 
(LEV) program achieved emission reductions at least as large as the 
Federal program would. We approved the substitution of the LEV program 
for a Clean Fuel Fleet program into the California SIP on August 27, 
1999. See 64 FR 46849.
5. Gasoline Vapor Recovery
    CAA section 182(b)(3) mandates that States submit a revised SIP by 
November 15, 1992 that requires owners or operators of gasoline 
dispensing systems to install and operate gasoline vehicle refueling 
vapor recovery (``Stage II'') systems in ozone nonattainment areas 
classified as moderate and above. See General Preamble at 13514. 
California's ozone nonattainment areas had implemented Stage II vapor 
recovery well before the passage of the CAA Amendments of 1990.

[[Page 57894]]

    Under California State law (Health and Safety Code Section 41954), 
CARB is required to adopt procedures and performance standards for 
controlling gasoline emissions from gasoline marketing operations, 
including transfer and storage operations. State law also authorizes 
CARB, in cooperation with districts, to certify vapor recovery systems, 
to identify defective equipment, and to develop test methods. CARB has 
adopted numerous revisions to its vapor recovery program regulations. 
See Table A-7 in Appendix A to the TSD for today's action. See also 
CARB's Web site, http://www.evrhome.org.
    In the South Coast, the installation and operation of ARB-certified 
vapor recovery equipment is required and enforced by SCAQMD Rules 461 
and 462, the latest versions of which were approved into the SIP on 
April 11, 2006 and July 21, 1999, respectively. See 71 FR 18216 (April 
11, 2006) and 64 FR 39037 (July 21, 2006).
6. Enhanced [Ambient Air Quality] Monitoring
    CAA Section 182(c)(1) requires that all ozone nonattainment areas 
classified as serious or above implement measures to enhance and 
improve monitoring for ambient concentrations of ozone, NOX, 
and VOCs, and to improve monitoring of emissions of NOX and 
VOCs.
    The South Coast Photochemical Assessment Monitoring Station (PAMS) 
network was initiated in 1994 at two monitoring sites in the Basin and 
subsequently expanded through 2001. The SCAQMD's Annual Air Quality 
Monitoring Network Plan (July 2010) describes the steps the state has 
taken to address the requirements of CAA section 182(c)(1). Pages 4 
through 6 and 17 of the monitoring network plan describe the South 
Coast Air Basin's PAMS network.36 37 We have determined that 
the SCAQMD's PAMS network meets EPA requirements for enhanced 
monitoring programs.\38\ More detail is provided in the TSD for today's 
action.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \36\ Starting in 2007, EPA's monitoring rules (see 71 FR 61236), 
October 17, 2006) required the submittal and EPA action on annual 
monitoring network plans.
    \37\ SCAQMD's 2010 monitoring network plan can be found in the 
docket for today's action.
    \38\ See SCAMQD's 2010 monitoring network plan and letter, 
Matthew Lakin, Chief, Air Quality Analysis Office, EPA Region 9, to 
Dr. Chung Liu, Deputy Executive Officer, SCAQMD, dated November 1, 
2010, approving the 2009 South Coast Air Quality Monitoring Network 
Plan.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

7. Clean Fuels or Advanced Control Technology for Boilers
    CAA section 182(e)(3) provides that SIPs for extreme areas must 
require each new, modified, and existing electric utility and 
industrial and commercial boiler that emits more than 25 tons per year 
(tpy) of NOX to either burn as its primary fuel natural gas, 
methanol, or ethanol (or a comparably low polluting fuel), or use 
advanced control technology (such as catalytic control technology or 
other comparably effective control methods). Further guidance on this 
requirement is provided in the General Preamble at 13523. According to 
the General Preamble, a boiler should generally be considered as any 
combustion equipment used to produce steam and generally does not 
include a process heater that transfers heat from combustion gases to 
process streams. General Preamble at 13523, 13524. In addition, boilers 
with rated heat inputs less that 15 million Btu (MMBtu) per hour which 
are oil- or gas-fired may generally be considered de minimis and exempt 
from these requirements since it is unlikely that they will exceed the 
25 tpy NOX emission limit. General Preamble at 13524.
    The South Coast 2007 AQMP does not directly address CAA section 
182(e)(3) requirements for 8-hour ozone. CARB has previously submitted 
SIP revisions for the South Coast Air Basin addressing the clean fuels 
for boilers requirement under section 182(e)(3) for the 1-hour ozone 
standard. See 61 FR 57775 (November 8, 1996) for EPA's approval of the 
rule submitted to satisfy the CAA section 182(e)(3) requirement in the 
South Coast.
    South Coast Rule 1146 ``Emissions of Oxides of Nitrogen from 
Industrial, Institutional and Commercial Boilers, Steam Generators and 
Process Heaters,'' as revised on November 17, 2000 and approved by EPA 
on April 8, 2002 (67 FR 16640), regulates emissions from boilers larger 
than 5 MMBtu/hour burning gaseous or non-gaseous fuels. The limits in 
the rule range between 0.036 and 0.052 lb/MMBtu, depending on the size 
of the boiler and its capacity factor. This limit is lower than the 
level of emissions expected from uncontrolled natural gas-fired 
boilers. Thus, the rule essentially requires all subject boilers to 
burn fuels that are comparably low polluting (compared to natural gas 
combustion) or to use control technologies to achieve emissions levels 
that are similar to those obtained by burning natural gas, methanol, 
ethanol, or other comparably low polluting fuels.
    South Coast Regulation XIII (New Source Review (NSR) Program). 
Regulation XIII (consisting of Rules 1301, 1302, 1303, 1304, 1306, 
1309, 1309.1, 1310, and 1313), which EPA has approved into the South 
Coast portion of the California SIP (see 61 FR 64291, December 4, 
1996), applies to any new or modified boiler proposing to locate in the 
South Coast that emits or has the potential to emit at least 10 tons 
per year (tpy) of NOX or VOC, among other sources. See Rules 
1301 and 1302. Under Rule 1303, any such boiler is required to employ 
Best Available Control Technology, which must be at least as stringent 
as the Lowest Achievable Emissions Rate (LAER) as defined in CAA 
section 171(3). See Rule 1302(f) and 1303(a). The LAER standard 
essentially requires, at a minimum, combustion of low-polluting fuels 
and/or use of advanced control technologies consistent with the 
requirements of CAA section 182(e)(3). See CAA 171(3).\39\ Accordingly, 
the SCAQMD's SIP-approved NSR program in Regulation XIII, which 
establishes LAER-level control requirements for any new or modified 
boiler that emits more than 10 tpy of NOX, satisfies the 
requirements of CAA section 182(e)(3) for each new or modified electric 
utility and industrial and commercial boiler that emits more than 25 
tpy of NOX. As to existing boilers that emit more than 25 
tpy of NOX, the District has demonstrated that each such 
boiler currently operating in the South Coast either burns as its 
primary fuel natural gas or a comparably low polluting fuel, or uses 
advanced control technology such as SCR or another comparably effective 
control method (e.g., SNCR), in accordance with SIP-approved 
requirements such as Rule 1146. See letter, Elaine Chang, DrPH, Deputy 
Executive Officer, SCAQMD, to Elizabeth Adams, Deputy Director, Air 
Division, EPA Region 9, dated August 23, 2011.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \39\ Section 171(3) of the CAA defines LAER, in relevant part, 
as ``that rate of emissions which reflects--(A) the most stringent 
emission limitation which is contained in the implementation plan of 
any State for such class or category of source, unless the owner or 
operator of the proposed source demonstrates that such limitations 
are not achievable, or (B) the most stringent emission limitation 
which is achieved in practice by such class or category of source, 
whichever is more stringent.''
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

8. CAA Section 185 Fee Program
    CAA Section 185 requires that the SIP for each severe and extreme 
ozone nonattainment area provide that, if the area fails to attain by 
its applicable attainment date, each major stationary source of VOCs 
and NOX located in the

[[Page 57895]]

nonattainment area shall pay a fee to the State as a penalty for such 
failure for each calendar year beginning after the attainment date, 
until the area is redesignated as an attainment area for ozone. States 
are not yet required to implement CAA section 185 fee programs for the 
1997 8-hour ozone standard.\40\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \40\ SCAQMD submitted Rule 317, ``Clean Air Act Non-attainment 
Fees,'' a fee-equivalent program to address the requirements of 
section 185 for the 1-hour ozone standard, on April 22, 2011.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

V. EPA's Proposed Actions

    For the reasons discussed above, EPA is proposing to fully approve 
California's attainment SIP for the South Coast nonattainment area for 
the 1997 8-hour ozone standard. Simultaneously and in the alternative, 
EPA is proposing to disapprove the submitted SIP with respect to 
certain requirements for transportation control strategies and TCMs 
pending resolution of petitions before the 9th Circuit U.S. Court of 
Appeals in Association of Irritated Residents v. EPA, 632 F.3d 584 (9th 
Cir. 2011). This SIP submittal consists of the South Coast 2007 AQMP 
(as revised March 4, 2011) and those portions of CARB's revised 2007 
State Strategy as revised in 2009 and 2011 that address the CAA's 
requirements for attainment of the 1997 8-hour ozone NAAQS in the South 
Coast nonattainment area.
    Specifically, EPA is proposing to approve under CAA section 
110(k)(3) the following elements of the South Coast 2007 8-Hour Ozone 
Plan:
    1. The revised 2002 base year emissions inventory as meeting the 
requirements of CAA section 182(a)(1) and 40 CFR 51.915;
    2. The reasonably available control measure demonstration as 
meeting the requirements of CAA section 172(c)(1) and 40 CFR 51.912(d);
    3. The reasonable further progress demonstration as meeting the 
requirements of CAA sections 172(c)(2) and 182(c)(2)(B) and 40 CFR 
51.910;
    4. The attainment demonstration as meeting the requirements of CAA 
section 182(c)(2)(A) and 40 CFR 51.908;
    5. The provisions for the development of new technologies pursuant 
to CAA section 182(e)(5) and CARB's commitment to adopt and submit by 
2020 contingency measures to be implemented if the new technologies do 
not achieve the planned emissions reductions, as well as additional 
attainment contingency measures meeting the requirements of CAA section 
172(c)(9), pursuant to CAA section 182(e)(5); and to develop and submit 
by 2020, revisions to the SIP that will (1) reflect modifications to 
the 2023 emission reduction target based on updated science and (2) 
identify additional strategies and implementing agencies needed to 
achieve the needed reductions by the beginning of the 2023 ozone 
season.
    6. The contingency measure provisions for failure to make RFP and 
to attain as meeting the requirements of CAA sections 172(c)(9) and 
182(c)(9);
    7. The demonstration that the SIP provides for transportation 
control strategies and measures sufficient to offset any growth in 
emissions from growth in VMT or the number of vehicle trips, and to 
provide for RFP and attainment, as meeting the requirements of CAA 
section 182(d)(1)(A);
    8. The revised motor vehicle emissions budgets for the RFP 
milestone years of 2011, 2014, 2017 and 2020, and for the attainment 
year of 2023, because they are derived from approvable RFP and 
attainment demonstrations and meet the requirements of CAA sections 
176(c) and 40 CFR part 93, subpart A;
    9. The SCAQMD's commitments to achieve specific aggregate emission 
reductions of NOX and VOC as listed in Table 4-2A of the 
South Coast 2007 AQMP (as revised March 4, 2011); and
    10. CARB's commitments to propose certain defined measures, as 
listed in Table B-1 on page 1 of Appendix B of the 2011 Progress Report 
and in Appendix B, Table B-1 of the 2011 Ozone SIP Revision, to achieve 
specific aggregate emission reductions of VOC and NOX in the 
South Coast nonattainment area by 2023 as provided in CARB Resolution 
07-28, Attachment B, and the 2009 State Strategy update, p. 20; and to 
achieve the emissions reductions needed to attain the 8-hour ozone 
standard in the South Coast nonattainment area as provided in CARB 
Resolution 07-28, Attachment B, p. 4, 2009 State Strategy Status 
Report, p. 20.
    Simultaneously and in the alternative, if the U.S. Court of Appeals 
for the 9th Circuit denies the Agency's petition for rehearing in AIR 
v. EPA and issues its mandate before EPA issues a final rule on the 
South Coast 2007 Ozone SIP, we propose to disapprove the SIP under CAA 
section 110(k)(3) with respect to the first element (i.e., offsetting 
emissions growth) of CAA section 182(d)(1)(A) based on the plan's 
failure to include sufficient transportation control strategies and 
TCMs to offset the emissions from growth in VMT.

VI. Statutory and Executive Order Reviews

A. Executive Order 12866, Regulatory Planning and Review

    The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) has exempted this 
regulatory action from Executive Order 12866, entitled ``Regulatory 
Planning and Review.''

B. Paperwork Reduction Act

    This action does not impose an information collection burden under 
the provisions of the Paperwork Reduction Act, 44 U.S.C. 3501 et seq. 
Burden is defined at 5 CFR 1320.3(b).

C. Regulatory Flexibility Act

    The Regulatory Flexibility Act (RFA) generally requires an agency 
to conduct a regulatory flexibility analysis of any rule subject to 
notice and comment rulemaking requirements unless the agency certifies 
that the rule will not have a significant economic impact on a 
substantial number of small entities. Small entities include small 
businesses, small not-for-profit enterprises, and small governmental 
jurisdictions.
    This proposed rule will not have a significant impact on a 
substantial number of small entities because proposed SIP approvals 
under section 110 and subchapter I, part D of the Clean Air Act do not 
create any new requirements but simply propose to approve requirements 
that the State is already imposing. Therefore, because this proposed 
Federal SIP approval does not create any new requirements, I certify 
that this action will not have a significant economic impact on a 
substantial number of small entities. Moreover, due to the nature of 
the Federal-State relationship under the Clean Air Act, preparation of 
flexibility analysis would constitute Federal inquiry into the economic 
reasonableness of State action. The Clean Air Act forbids EPA to base 
its actions concerning SIPs on such grounds. Union Electric Co., v. 
U.S. EPA, 427 U.S. 246, 255-66 (1976); 42 U.S.C. 7410(a)(2).

D. Unfunded Mandates Reform Act

    Under sections 202 of the Unfunded Mandates Reform Act of 1995 
(``Unfunded Mandates Act''), signed into law on March 22, 1995, EPA 
must prepare a budgetary impact statement to accompany any proposed or 
final rule that includes a Federal mandate that may result in estimated 
costs to State, local, or tribal governments in the aggregate; or to 
the private sector, of $100 million or more. Under section 205, EPA 
must select the most cost-

[[Page 57896]]

effective and least burdensome alternative that achieves the objectives 
of the rule and is consistent with statutory requirements. Section 203 
requires EPA to establish a plan for informing and advising any small 
governments that may be significantly or uniquely impacted by the rule.
    EPA has determined that the proposed approval action does not 
include a Federal mandate that may result in estimated costs of $100 
million or more to either State, local, or tribal governments in the 
aggregate, or to the private sector. This Federal action proposes to 
approve pre-existing requirements under State or local law, and imposes 
no new requirements. Accordingly, no additional costs to State, local, 
or tribal governments, or to the private sector, result from this 
action.

E. Executive Order 13132, Federalism

    Federalism (64 FR 43255, August 10, 1999) revokes and replaces 
Executive Orders 12612 (Federalism) and 12875 (Enhancing the 
Intergovernmental Partnership). Executive Order 13132 requires EPA to 
develop an accountable process to ensure ``meaningful and timely input 
by State and local officials in the development of regulatory policies 
that have federalism implications.'' ``Policies that have federalism 
implications'' is defined in the Executive Order to include regulations 
that have ``substantial direct effects on the States, on the 
relationship between the national government and the States, or on the 
distribution of power and responsibilities among the various levels of 
government.'' Under Executive Order 13132, EPA may not issue a 
regulation that has federalism implications, that imposes substantial 
direct compliance costs, and that is not required by statute, unless 
the Federal government provides the funds necessary to pay the direct 
compliance costs incurred by State and local governments, or EPA 
consults with State and local officials early in the process of 
developing the proposed regulation. EPA also may not issue a regulation 
that has federalism implications and that preempts State law unless the 
Agency consults with State and local officials early in the process of 
developing the proposed regulation.
    This proposed rule will not have substantial direct effects on the 
States, on the relationship between the national government and the 
States, or on the distribution of power and responsibilities among the 
various levels of government, as specified in Executive Order 13132, 
because it merely proposes to approve a State rule implementing a 
Federal standard, and does not alter the relationship or the 
distribution of power and responsibilities established in the Clean Air 
Act. Thus, the requirements of section 6 of the Executive Order do not 
apply to this rule.

F. Executive Order 13175, Coordination With Indian Tribal Governments

    Executive Order 13175, entitled ``Consultation and Coordination 
with Indian Tribal Governments'' (65 FR 67249, November 9, 2000), 
requires EPA to develop an accountable process to ensure ``meaningful 
and timely input by tribal officials in the development of regulatory 
policies that have tribal implications.'' This proposed rule does not 
have tribal implications, as specified in Executive Order 13175. It 
will not have substantial direct effects on tribal governments, on the 
relationship between the Federal government and Indian tribes, or on 
the distribution of power and responsibilities between the Federal 
government and Indian tribes. Thus, Executive Order 13175 does not 
apply to this rule.
    EPA specifically solicits additional comment on this proposed rule 
from tribal officials.

G. Executive Order 13045, Protection of Children From Environmental 
Health Risks and Safety Risks

    EPA interprets Executive Order 13045 (62 FR 19885, April 23, 1997) 
as applying only to those regulatory actions that concern health or 
safety risks, such that the analysis required under section 5-501 of 
the Executive Order has the potential to influence the regulation. This 
proposed rule is not subject to Executive Order 13045, because it 
proposes to approve a State rule implementing a Federal standard.

H. Executive Order 13211, Actions That Significantly Affect Energy 
Supply, Distribution, or Use

    This proposed rule is not subject to Executive Order 13211, 
``Actions Concerning Regulations That Significantly Affect Energy 
Supply, Distribution, or Use'' (66 FR 28355, May 22, 2001) because it 
is not a significant regulatory action under Executive Order 12866.

I. National Technology Transfer and Advancement Act

    Section 12 of the National Technology Transfer and Advancement Act 
(NTTAA) of 1995 requires Federal agencies to evaluate existing 
technical standards when developing a new regulation. To comply with 
NTTAA, EPA must consider and use ``voluntary consensus standards'' 
(VCS) if available and applicable when developing programs and policies 
unless doing so would be inconsistent with applicable law or otherwise 
impractical.
    The EPA believes that VCS are inapplicable to this action. Today's 
action does not require the public to perform activities conducive to 
the use of VCS.

J. Executive Order 12898: Federal Actions To Address Environmental 
Justice in Minority Populations and Low-Income Population

    Executive Order (EO) 12898 (59 FR 7629 (Feb. 16, 1994)) establishes 
Federal executive policy on environmental justice. Its main provision 
directs Federal agencies, to the greatest extent practicable and 
permitted by law, to make environmental justice part of their mission 
by identifying and addressing, as appropriate, disproportionately high 
and adverse human health or environmental effects of their programs, 
policies, and activities on minority populations and low-income 
populations in the United States. EPA lacks the discretionary authority 
to address environmental justice in this rulemaking. In reviewing SIP 
submittals, EPA's role is to approve or disapprove State choices, based 
on the criteria of the CAA. Accordingly, this action merely proposes to 
approve certain State requirements for inclusion into the SIP under CAA 
section 110 and subchapter I, part D will not in-and-of itself create 
any new requirements. Accordingly, it does not provide EPA with the 
discretionary authority to address, as appropriate, disproportionate 
human health or environmental effects, using practicable and legally 
permissible methods, under Executive Order 12898.

List of Subjects in 40 CFR Part 52

    Environmental protection, Air pollution control, Nitrogen dioxide, 
Ozone, Reporting and recordkeeping requirements, Volatile organic 
compounds.

    Authority: 42 U.S.C. 7401 et seq.

    Dated: September 7, 2011.
Jared Blumenfeld,
Regional Administrator, EPA Region 9.
[FR Doc. 2011-23659 Filed 9-15-11; 8:45 am]
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