Document ID: EPA-HQ-ORD-2016-0196-0001
Agency: epa
Document Type: Notice
Title: Updates to the Demographic and Spatial Allocation Models to Produce Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios Version 2
Posted Date: 2016-04-29T04:00Z

[Federal Register Volume 81, Number 83 (Friday, April 29, 2016)]
[Notices]
[Pages 25666-25667]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]
[FR Doc No: 2016-09860]

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ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY

[EPA-ORD-2016-0196; FRL-9945-79-ORD]

Updates to the Demographic and Spatial Allocation Models To 
Produce Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios Version 2

AGENCY: Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).

ACTION: Notice of public comment period.

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SUMMARY: The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is announcing a 30-
day public comment period for the draft document titled, ``Updates to 
the Demographic and Spatial Allocation Models to Produce Integrated 
Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) Version 2'' (EPA/600/R-14/324). 
EPA is also announcing that Versar, Inc., an EPA contractor for 
external scientific peer review, will select four independent experts 
from a pool of eight to conduct a letter peer review of the same draft 
document. The document was prepared by the National Center for 
Environmental Assessment within EPA's Office of Research and 
Development. This document describes the development of version 2 of 
Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS), including updates to 
data sets and the demographic and spatial allocation models.
    EPA intends to forward the public comments that are submitted in 
accordance with this document to the external peer reviewers for their 
consideration during the letter peer review. When finalizing the draft 
documents, EPA intends to consider any public comments received in 
response to this document. EPA is releasing this draft document for the 
purposes of public comment and peer review. This draft document is not 
final as described in EPA's information quality guidelines and does not 
represent and should not be construed to represent Agency policy or 
views.
    The draft document is available via the Internet on EPA's Risk Web 
page under the Recent Additions at http://www.epa.gov/risk.

DATES: The document will be available on April 29, 2016.

ADDRESSES: The draft report, ``Updates to the Demographic and Spatial 
Allocation Models to Produce Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios 
(ICLUS) Version 2,'' is available primarily via the Internet on the 
Ecological Risk Assessment Products and Publications Web page at http://www.epa.gov/risk/ecological-risk-assessment-products-and-publications. 
A limited number of paper copies are available from the Information 
Management Team, NCEA; telephone: 703-347-8561; facsimile: 703-347-
8691. If you are requesting a paper copy, please provide your name, 
mailing address, and the document title.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: For information on the public comment 
period, contact the ORD Docket at the EPA Headquarters Docket Center; 
telephone: 202-566-1752; facsimile: 202-566-9744; or email: 
Docket_ORD@epa.gov.
    For technical information, contact Britta Bierwagen, NCEA; 
telephone: 703-347-8613; facsimile: 703-347-8694; or email: 
bierwagen.britta@epa.gov.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:

Information About the Project/Document

    The first version of the Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios 
(ICLUS) project modeled population, residential development, and 
impervious surface cover changes by decade to the year 2100 consistent 
with four global carbon emissions storylines and a baseline. The 
current report discusses improvements to the underlying models of ICLUS 
that result in version 2 (v2). ICLUS v2 is consistent with updated 
global socioeconomic scenarios (e.g., Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 
(SSPs)) and new global climate change model targets (e.g., 
Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)). Improvements include the 
use of updated population and land use/cover data sets, integration of 
changing climate variables within the migration model, inclusion of 
transportation network capacity and its increase over time, growth in 
commercial and industrial land uses, and the use of population density-
driven demands for growth of residential housing, commercial 
development, and industry.

[[Page 25667]]

This report demonstrates the effect of these improvements by comparing 
national and regional results among the SSP and RCP combinations used 
and the two climate models selected. ICLUS v2 shows differences in 
population migration patterns by including climate variables that 
change over time rather than ones that are static. Additionally, 
changing commercial and industrial land uses can drive patterns of new 
urban growth that have consequences for many environmental endpoints. 
Therefore, ICLUS v2 is better suited to explore scenarios of climate 
change impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation options, including the 
use of ICLUS v2 outputs in models projecting emissions from developed 
land uses and consequences for water and air quality endpoints, as well 
as human health.

    Dated: April 11, 2016.
Mary A. Ross,
Deputy Director, National Center for Environmental Assessment.
[FR Doc. 2016-09860 Filed 4-28-16; 8:45 am]
 BILLING CODE 6560-50-P