Document ID: EPA-R05-OAR-2016-0644-0001
Agency: epa
Document Type: Proposed Rule
Title: Proposed Approval of the Cleveland 2012 PM2.5 Attainment Demonstration
Posted Date: 2018-06-04T04:00Z

[Federal Register Volume 83, Number 107 (Monday, June 4, 2018)]
[Proposed Rules]
[Pages 25608-25615]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]
[FR Doc No: 2018-11748]

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ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY

40 CFR Part 52

[EPA-R05-OAR-2016-0644; FRL-9978-87-Region 5]

Air Plan Approval; Ohio; Cleveland, PM2.5 Attainment Plan

AGENCY: Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).

ACTION: Proposed rule.

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SUMMARY: On October 14, 2016, the Ohio Environmental Protection Agency 
(OEPA) submitted a State Implementation Plan (SIP) submission for the 
2012 Fine Particle (PM2.5) National Ambient Air Quality 
Standards (``NAAQS'' or ``standards'') for the Cleveland nonattainment 
area. As required by the Clean Air Act (CAA), OEPA developed an 
attainment plan to address the Cleveland nonattainment area and 
evaluate the area's ability to attain the 2012 PM2.5 NAAQS 
by the ``Moderate'' attainment date of December 31, 2021. The SIP 
submission addresses specific requirements as outlined in the CAA 
including: Attainment demonstration; reasonable available control 
measure (RACM) analysis; emissions inventory requirements; reasonable 
further progress (RFP) with quantitative milestones; and nonattainment 
new source review (NNSR). Additionally, the SIP submission includes 
optional PM2.5 precursor demonstrations for NNSR and 
attainment planning purposes. EPA has evaluated the SIP submission and 
is proposing to approve portions of the submission as meeting the 
applicable CAA requirements for RACM, emissions inventory, attainment 
demonstration modeling, and precursor insignificance demonstrations for 
NNSR and attainment planning purposes. EPA is not acting on the other 
elements of the submission, including reasonable further progress 
(RFP), with quantitative milestones, and motor vehicle emission budgets 
(MVEBs).

DATES: Comments must be received on or before July 5, 2018.

ADDRESSES: Submit your comments, identified by Docket ID No. EPA-R05-
OAR-2016-0644 at http://www.regulations.gov, or via email to 
[email protected]. For comments submitted at Regulations.gov, 
follow the online instructions for submitting comments. Once submitted, 
comments cannot be edited or removed from Regulations.gov. For either 
manner of submission, EPA may publish any comment received to its 
public docket. Do not submit electronically any information you 
consider to be Confidential Business Information (CBI) or other 
information whose disclosure is restricted by statute. Multimedia 
submissions (audio, video, etc.) must be accompanied by a written 
comment. The written comment is considered the official comment and 
should include discussion of all points you wish to make. EPA will 
generally not consider comments or comment contents located outside of 
the primary submission (i.e. on the web, cloud, or other file sharing 
system). For additional submission methods, please contact the person 
identified in the FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT section. For the full 
EPA public comment policy, information about CBI or multimedia 
submissions, and general guidance on making effective comments, please 
visit http://www2.epa.gov/dockets/commenting-epa-dockets.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT:  Carolyn Persoon, Environmental 
Engineer, Control Strategies Section, Air Programs Branch (AR 18J), 
Environmental Protection Agency, Region 5, 77 West Jackson Boulevard, 
Chicago, Illinois 60604, (312) 353-8290, [email protected].

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Throughout this document, wherever ``we'', 
``us'' or ``our'' is used, we mean EPA. This supplementary information 
section is arranged as follows:

I. Background for EPA's Proposed Action
    A. History of the PM2.5 NAAQS
    B. CAA PM2.5 Moderate Area Nonattainment SIP 
Requirements
II. EPA's Evaluation of Submission
III. EPA's Proposed Action
IV. Statutory and Executive Order Reviews

I. Background for EPA's Proposed Action

A. History of the 2012 PM2.5 NAAQS

    On December 15, 2012, EPA promulgated the 2012 PM2.5 
NAAQS, including a revision of the annual standard to 12.0 micrograms 
per cubic meter ([micro]g/m\3\) based on a 3-year average of annual 
mean PM2.5 concentrations, and maintaining the current 24-
hour (or daily) standard of 35 [micro]g/m\3\ based on a 3-year average 
of the 98th percentile of 24-hour concentrations (78 FR 3086, January 
15, 2013). EPA established the 2012 PM2.5 NAAQS based on 
significant evidence and numerous health studies demonstrating the 
serious health effects associated with exposures to PM2.5. 
The Cleveland, Ohio area was designated ``Moderate'' nonattainment for 
the 2012 PM2.5 NAAQS based on ambient monitoring data 
showing that the area was above the 12.0 [micro]g/m\3\ standard. At the 
time of designations, the Cleveland area had a design value of 12.5 
[micro]g/m\3\ for the 2011-2013 monitoring period (80 FR 2206, January 
15, 2015).
    To provide guidance on the CAA requirements for state and tribal 
implementation plans to implement the 2012 PM2.5 NAAQS, EPA 
promulgated the ``Fine Particle Matter National Ambient Air Quality 
Standard: State Implementation Plan Requirements; Final Rule'' (81 FR 
58010, August 24, 2016) (hereinafter, the ``PM2.5 SIP 
Requirements Rule''). As part of the PM2.5 SIP Requirements 
Rule, EPA has interpreted the requirements of the CAA to allow the 
state to provide a ``precursor demonstration'' to EPA that supports the 
determination that one or more PM2.5 precursors need not be 
subject to control and planning requirements in a given nonattainment 
area. EPA has determined that sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen 
oxides (NOX),

[[Page 25609]]

volatile organic compounds (VOC) and ammonia (NH3) are 
precursors to PM, and thus the attainment plan requirements of subpart 
4 initially apply equally to emissions of direct PM2.5 and 
all of its identified precursors. Section 189(e) of the CAA explicitly 
requires the control of major stationary sources of PM2.5 
precursors, unless there is a demonstration to the satisfaction of the 
EPA Administrator that such major stationary sources do not contribute 
significantly to PM levels that exceed the standards in the area. 
Accordingly, a state can also provide a precursor demonstration for 
attainment planning purposes which finds that reducing a precursor does 
not significantly reduce PM2.5 concentrations, and therefore 
determines that controls are not needed for any sources of that 
precursor (not just major sources) for attainment purposes. EPA has 
long recognized the scientific basis for concluding that there are 
multiple precursors to PM10, and in particular to 
PM2.5 (Section III of Preamble of PM2.5 SIP 
Requirements Rule).
    After Ohio's submission of the attainment plan by the CAA required 
date of October 14, 2016, EPA released a November 17, 2016 memorandum 
from Steve Page entitled ``Draft PM2.5 Precursor 
Demonstration Guidance'' (precursor guidance), which provides guidance 
to states on methods to evaluate if sources of a particular precursor 
contribute significantly to PM2.5 levels in the 
nonattainment area. The precursor guidance provides a detailed 
description of potential modeling approaches and presents possible 
thresholds to use in determining whether sources of a particular 
precursor contribute significantly to PM2.5 levels in the 
area. Although there is no explicit concentration which EPA has 
determined represents a significant contribution for PM2.5 
precursor demonstrations, the precursor guidance suggests that a 
contribution level of 0.2 [micro]g/m\3\, for annual average 
PM2.5, could be considered an air quality change that is 
``insignificant.'' The specific methods and analysis utilized by Ohio 
regarding precursors are generally consistent with the PM2.5 
SIP Requirements Rule and precursor guidance and are described in 
detail in the sections below regarding planning requirements and NNSR 
requirements.

B. CAA PM2.5 Moderate Area Nonattainment SIP Requirements

    With respect to the requirements for an attainment plan for the 
2012 PM2.5 NAAQS, the general CAA part D nonattainment area 
planning requirements are found in subpart 1, and the Moderate area 
planning requirements specifically for particulate matter are found in 
subpart 4.
    EPA utilizes a longstanding general guidance document that 
interprets the 1990 amendments to the CAA commonly referred to as the 
``General Preamble'' (57 FR 13498, April 16, 1992). The General 
Preamble addresses the relationship between the subpart 1 and the 
subpart 4 requirements and provides recommendations to states for 
meeting statutory requirements for particulate matter attainment 
planning. Specifically, the General Preamble explains that requirements 
applicable to Moderate area attainment plan SIP submissions are set 
forth in subpart 4, but such SIP submissions must also meet the general 
attainment planning provisions in subpart 1, to the extent these 
provisions ``are not otherwise subsumed by, or integrally related to,'' 
the more specific subpart 4 requirements (57 FR 13538). Additionally, 
EPA finalized the PM2.5 SIP Requirements Rule to clarify our 
interpretations of the statutory requirements that apply to Moderate 
and ``Serious'' PM2.5 nonattainment areas under subparts 1 
and 4.
    The CAA requirements of subpart 1 for attainment plans include: (i) 
The section 172(c)(1) RACM/reasonably available control technology 
(RACT) and attainment demonstrations; (ii) the section 172(c)(2) 
requirement to demonstrate RFP; (iii) the section 172(c)(3) requirement 
for emission inventories; (iv) the section 172(c)(5) requirements for a 
NNSR permitting program; and (v) the section 172(c)(9) requirement for 
contingency measures.
    The CAA subpart 4 requirements for Moderate areas are generally 
comparable with the subpart 1 requirements and include: (i) The section 
189(a)(1)(A) NNSR permit program requirements; (ii) the section 
189(a)(1)(B) requirements for attainment demonstration; (iii) the 
section 189(a)(1)(C) requirements for RACM; and (iv) the section 189(c) 
requirements for RFP and quantitative milestones. Section 189(e) also 
requires that states regulate major sources of PM2.5 
precursors in a nonattainment area, unless EPA approves a demonstration 
excusing the state from regulating such sources. In addition, under 
subpart 4 Moderate areas must provide for attainment of the current 
PM2.5 annual standard as expeditiously as practicable but no 
later than the end of the 6th calendar year after designation, which is 
December 31, 2021.

II. EPA's Evaluation of the Submission

    OEPA, in coordination with the Lake Michigan Air Directors 
Consortium (LADCO), developed the attainment plan SIP submission for 
the Cleveland area. This plan was subsequently put through public 
process, adopted by the state, and submitted by the OEPA to EPA. This 
section describes the relevant contents of the 2012 PM2.5 
NAAQS attainment plan SIP submission and EPA's rationale for proposing 
approval of the required SIP elements of RACM, attainment 
demonstration, emissions inventory, and precursor demonstrations for 
both NNSR and attainment planning purposes.
    The 2012 PM2.5 attainment plan contains SIP provisions 
to address the requirements for a Moderate PM2.5 
nonattainment area, including RACT/RACM, emissions inventory, modeling, 
attainment demonstration, transportation conformity and motor vehicle 
emissions budgets, RFP with quantitative milestones, and contingency 
measures. EPA is proposing to approve the RACM, emissions inventory, 
attainment demonstration, and precursor demonstrations for NNSR and 
attainment planning purposes, as fully meeting the requirements of the 
CAA and the applicable Federal regulations. Preliminary monitoring data 
indicate that the area is attaining the standard for the 2015-2017 
design value period. If confirmed, certain planning requirements may be 
suspended per the clean data policy (40 CFR 51.1015(a)). EPA will 
continue to review other elements of the attainment plan submission in 
order to determine if they are necessary for the area to attain the 
standard and act on them accordingly.

Emissions Inventory 1
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    \1\ Note that this guidance was also updated in 2017. See 
``Emissions Inventory Guidance for Implementation of Ozone and 
Particulate Matter National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) 
and Regional Haze Regulations'' (EPA-454/B-17-003, July 2017).
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    Section 172(c)(3) of the CAA requires the development of an 
emissions inventory for nonattainment areas. In addition, the planning 
and associated modeling requirements set forth in CAA section 189(a) 
make the development of an accurate and up-to-date emissions inventory 
a critical element of any viable attainment plan. EPA guidance 
specifies the best practices for developing an emissions inventory for 
PM2.5 nonattainment areas per EPA's ``Emissions Inventory 
Guidance for Implementation of Ozone and Particulate Matter National 
Ambient Air

[[Page 25610]]

Quality Standards (NAAQS) and Regional Haze Regulations'' (EPA-454/B-
07-002, April 2007). The 2012 PM2.5 NAAQS SIP submission 
contains planning inventories of emission sources and emission rates 
for the base year of 2011 and the projected attainment year of 2021. 
OEPA selected the year 2011 as the base year because it is one of the 
three years for which air quality data was used to designate the area 
as nonattainment. Additionally, OEPA and LADCO determined that high-
quality emissions information was already available from the National 
Emissions Inventory (NEI) for 2011. LADCO developed the base year 
emissions inventory for the nonattainment area using the NEI, with 
additional information for on-road and nonroad mobile sources, marine, 
aircraft, and rail sources. Table 1 provides a summary of the annual 
2011 emissions inventory for the Cleveland nonattainment area for 
direct PM2.5 and all PM2.5 precursors.
    OEPA's submission included detailed information for the sources in 
the emissions inventory including facility name, ID, location, and 
emissions, as well as documentation on mobile source model inputs for 
both on-road and nonroad sources (See Docket submission and Appendix 
C).

                                 Table 1--Annual Emissions Inventory for Cleveland Area for Direct PM2.5 and Precursors
                                                                          [tpy]
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                                                                       PM2.5
                  County/source sector                   --------------------------------       NOX             SO2             NH3             VOC
                                                            Filterable      Condensable
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cuyahoga:
    Area (nonpoint).....................................         1143.13          234.61         4989.24          188.94          670.62        12116.58
    Marine, Aircraft, Rail (MAR)........................           96.88            0.02         2822.27          187.78            0.99          288.66
    Nonroad.............................................          508.69            0.00         6045.40           17.35            8.66         8349.38
    Onroad..............................................          800.00            0.00        18764.59          132.17          428.60         8568.15
    Point EGU...........................................           32.90           33.50          771.22         1941.86            0.10           11.40
    Point Non-EGU.......................................          599.48          407.26         2404.05         4461.80           65.87          986.52
    Prescribed Fire.....................................            4.92            0.00            1.20            0.54            0.88           12.61
Lorain:
    Area (nonpoint).....................................          477.68           72.00          844.19           44.37          448.73         2721.24
    Marine, Aircraft, Rail (MAR)........................           44.39            0.00         1289.44           55.68            0.57           73.94
    Nonroad.............................................          160.82            0.00         1971.11            5.39            2.66         3009.78
    Onroad..............................................          195.49            0.00         4580.85           31.75          101.84         2177.01
    Point EGU...........................................           94.90          298.62         4673.50        32041.30            0.54           31.82
    Point Non-EGU.......................................          156.45          175.78          705.89          374.63            3.01          916.35
    Prescribed Fire.....................................            0.00            0.00            0.00            0.00            0.00            0.00
                                                         -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        Total...........................................         4615.72         1521.80        49862.95        39483.56         1736.07        39263.44
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    EPA has reviewed the base-year emissions inventory and finds that 
it satisfies the CAA section 172(c)(3) requirement for a comprehensive, 
accurate and current inventory of actual 2011 emissions of the relevant 
pollutants for PM2.5 in the Cleveland area. Thus, EPA 
proposes to approve the base year emissions inventory in the SIP 
submission.

Attainment Demonstration and Modeling

    Section 189(a)(1)(B) requires that a PM2.5 Moderate area 
SIP contain either a demonstration that the plan will provide for 
attainment by the applicable attainment date, or a demonstration that 
attainment by such date is impracticable. In the attainment 
demonstration of the 2016 SIP submission, OEPA described how the 
attainment plan would provide for attainment of the 2012 
PM2.5 NAAQS by the attainment date of December 31, 2021.
    Using air quality modeling, an attainment demonstration must 
project that future air quality levels in the nonattainment area will 
be below the standard. OEPA and LADCO conducted modeling in accordance 
with EPA's April 2007 (and where appropriate, draft December 2014) 
``Guidance on the Use of Models and Other Analyses for Demonstrating 
Attainment of Air Quality Goals for Ozone, PM2.5, and 
Regional Haze.'' (attainment demonstration modeling guidance) (EPA-454/
B-07-002, April 2007). OEPA modeling is also consistent with the 
November 2005 Appendix W requirement used at the time by OEPA and is 
still consistent with the updated January 2017 (82 FR 5182) ``Guideline 
on Air Quality Models.'' (CFR Title 40, Part 51, Appendix W.) In 
addition, OEPA submitted a precursor demonstration that is consistent 
with the recommendations contained in EPA's precursor guidance document 
released in November 2016. (``PM2.5 Precursor Demonstration 
Guidance,'' memorandum issued by Steven Page, Director of EPA Office of 
Air Quality Planning and Standards, November 17, 2016).
    Per the PM2.5 SIP Requirements Rule, the attainment 
demonstration modeling guidance provides recommendations that include: 
Developing a conceptual description of the problem to be addressed; 
developing a modeling/analysis protocol; selecting an appropriate model 
to support the demonstration; selecting appropriate meteorological 
episodes or time periods to model; choosing an appropriate area to 
model with appropriate horizontal/vertical resolution; generating 
meteorological and air quality inputs to the air quality model; 
generating emissions inputs to the air quality model; and, evaluating 
performance of the air quality model. After these steps are completed, 
the state can apply a model to simulate effects of future year 
emissions and candidate control strategies.
    OEPA and LADCO calculated the baseline design value for 
PM2.5 using the procedures contained in appendix N to 40 CFR 
50, ``Interpretation of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards for 
Particulate Matter,'' and EPA attainment demonstration modeling 
guidance. Ambient PM2.5 concentrations for the 2009-2013 
time frame (a weighted average of the 2009-2011, 2010-2012, and 2011-
2013 design value periods, as recommended by the

[[Page 25611]]

Modeling Guidance) were used to calculate baseline design values 
ranging from 9.64-12.82 [micro]g/m\3\ for the seven PM2.5 
monitoring locations in the nonattainment area (see Table 2). Detailed 
methods for the baseline design value calculations are in Appendix B of 
the 2016 SIP submission (See Docket).
    Next, OEPA and LADCO compiled base-year emission inventories (as 
discussed above) and projected emission inventories for the attainment 
year 2021. LADCO utilized emission inventories compiled by EPA for the 
years 2011, 2017, and 2025 as the starting point. EPA's 2011 emissions 
inventory (Version 2011eh) is based on the 2011 NEI, version 2 
(2011NEIv2). The inventory uses hourly 2011 continuous emissions 
monitoring system (CEMS) data for electric generating units (EGUs) 
emissions, hourly on-road mobile emissions, and 2011 day-specific wild 
and prescribed fire data. Emissions include all criteria pollutants and 
precursors (CAPs), and a few hazardous air pollutants (HAPs). See EPA's 
Technical Support Document (EPA, 2015A) for a thorough description of 
the methodology used to develop the 2011 emissions inventory.
    EPA projected future emission inventories for the years 2017 and 
2025 based on the 2011 baseline inventory. The future-year scenarios 
incorporate current ``on-the-books'' regulations, and do not include 
any additional measures or controls. See, EPA (2015A) for a thorough 
description of the methodology used to project future emissions. For 
most emissions categories, LADCO developed the 2021 future-year 
emissions inventory by interpolating between EPA's 2017 and 2025 
inventories. The interpolation was done for each model species at each 
model cell for every model hour. However, LADCO developed updated 2021 
EGU emissions by using the Eastern Regional Technical Advisory 
Committee EGU Tool (ERTAC) and updated 2021 regional on-road mobile 
emissions using EPA's Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator (MOVES2014) and 
Ramboll-Environ emissions (See Appendix B and C for detailed 
discussion).
    For EGU projections, Ohio and LADCO relied on the U.S. Energy 
Information Administration's ``High Oil and Gas Resource'' (See Docket 
for detailed discussion). The projected emissions inventory not only 
accounts for growth in economic sectors, but also includes emissions 
controls (existing or future regulations) that will impact sources in 
the area. In this case, OEPA and LADCO only modeled controls that have 
been promulgated, with no new future controls being added since OEPA 
has determined that additional RACT and RACM would not be necessary for 
expeditious attainment, and that current controls in the area are 
sufficient to meet the RACM requirement. For modeling purposes no 
additional RACM/RACT was applied to future year inventories.
    The base-year and projected emission inventories were used in a 
photochemical grid model, the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with 
extensions (CAMx), to project the expected change from base-year to 
future year design values. The modeled attainment demonstration results 
in a predicted future-year concentration at each PM2.5 
ambient monitor location within the Cleveland nonattainment area. The 
results from the CAMx modeling were then used as inputs to EPA's 
Modeled Attainment Test Software (MATS) to calculate the design values 
for each monitored location in the attainment year 2021 using 
information on current PM2.5 speciation. Modeled attainment 
year results show that the area is expected to meet the standard (all 
2021 values at existing monitor locations are below 12.0 [mu]g/m\3\) by 
the 2021 attainment date (See Table 2).

                          Table 2--Projected PM2.5 Design Values ([mu]g/m\3\) for 2021
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                         2021
                      County                          Monitor ID     2011 Baseline     Projected
                                                                     design value    design value
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cuyahoga..........................................     39-035-0034           10.02            8.07
                                                       39-035-0038           12.82           10.69
                                                       39-035-0045           11.99            9.84
                                                       39-035-0060           12.79           10.45
                                                       39-035-0065           12.49           10.32
                                                       39-035-1002           10.36            8.41
Lorain............................................     39-093-3002            9.64            8.08
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Based on the above, EPA is proposing to approve OEPA's 
demonstration of attainment for 2021 as meeting the statutory 
requirement in CAA 189(a)(1)(B).

RACM/RACT Requirements

    The general SIP planning requirements for nonattainment areas under 
subpart 1 include CAA section 172(c)(1), which requires implementation 
of all RACM (including RACT). Section 172(c)(1) requires that 
attainment plans provide for the implementation of RACM (including 
RACT) to provide for attainment of the NAAQS. Therefore, what 
constitutes RACM and RACT is related to what is necessary for 
attainment, as well as expeditious attainment, in a given area.
    Subpart 4 also requires states to develop attainment plans that 
evaluate potential control measures and impose RACM and RACT on sources 
within a Moderate nonattainment area that are necessary to 
expeditiously attain the NAAQS. Specifically, CAA section 189(a)(1)(C) 
requires that Moderate nonattainment plans provide for implementation 
of RACM and RACT no later than four years after the area is designated 
as nonattainment. As with subpart 1, the terms RACM and RACT are not 
defined within subpart 4. Nor do the provisions of subpart 4 specify 
how states are to meet the RACM and RACT requirements. However, EPA's 
longstanding guidance in the General Preamble provides recommendations 
for determining which control measures constitute RACM and RACT for 
purposes of meeting the statutory requirements of subpart 4 (57 FR 
13540-13541).
    For both RACM and RACT, EPA notes that an overarching principle is 
that if a given control measure is not needed to attain the relevant 
NAAQS in a given area as expeditiously as practicable, then that 
control measure would not be required as RACM or RACT because it would 
not be reasonable to impose controls that are not in fact needed for 
attainment purposes. Accordingly, a RACM and RACT analysis is a process 
to identify emission sources, evaluate

[[Page 25612]]

potential emission controls, and impose those control measures and 
technologies that are reasonable and necessary to bring the area into 
attainment as expeditiously as practicable, but by no later than the 
statutory attainment date for the area.
    EPA has long applied a policy that states must evaluate the 
combined effect of reasonably available control measures that, if 
implemented collectively, would advance the attainment date by at least 
one year and should be adopted. Since the area's preliminary data 
indicate that it will attain the NAAQs based on the 2015-2017 design 
value period, it is not necessary to implement additional controls. The 
data indicates that the area is attaining the standard with current 
Federal, state, and local permanent and enforceable measures.
    OEPA provided a RACM and RACT analysis in Appendix E of the 2012 
PM2.5 attainment plan SIP submission. Ohio has found that 
existing measures for PM2.5, SO2 and 
NOX for area sources, mobile sources and stationary sources 
constitute RACT/RACM (80 FR 68253; 81 FR 58402; 82 FR 16938). Some of 
the current controls for the area that are sufficient to meet the RACM/
RACT requirement include: Existing PM2.5 and ozone RACT 
rules, mobile source controls, SO2 reductions from 2010 
SO2 nonattainment areas including a large EGU in neighboring 
Lake County, Federal interstate transport rules, and regional haze.
    OEPA provided an attainment analysis that consisted of: First, a 
modeling demonstration that the area would attain by the attainment 
date in 2021 with current on-the-books controls and measures; and 
second, a demonstration showing that by interpolating modeled future 
values from 2021 with 2016 design values at the monitored sites, the 
area would be attaining the standard in both 2020 (at 11.0 [mu]g/m\3\) 
and 2019 (at 11.3 [mu]g/m\3\) at the design value monitor prior to the 
2021 statutory attainment date. The interpolation suggested that the 
area would attain at the end of 2017, similar to EPA modeling analysis 
discussed below, and is now verified by the preliminary 2015-2017 
design values that indicate the area is likely attaining as of the end 
of 2017. In addition, the PM2.5 SIP Requirements Rule 
outlines the option for states to do an additional modeling 
demonstration to show that specific PM2.5 precursors are not 
significant contributors to PM2.5 levels that exceed the 
standard in the area. OEPA provided a precursor demonstration modeling 
analysis that was intended to demonstrate that emissions of 
NH3 and VOC are not significant PM2.5 precursors 
for attainment planning purposes.

Precursor Demonstration for Attainment Planning Purposes

    For the precursor demonstration, OEPA and LADCO initially performed 
a ``concentration-based'' contribution analysis using speciated 
monitoring data to determine whether NH3 or VOC contribute 
significantly to PM2.5 concentrations in the area, based on 
monitored values alone. However, using the assumption suggested in the 
draft precursor demonstration guidance that all NH3 
emissions are associated with the nitrate portion of PM2.5 
mass, and that all VOC emissions are associated with the organic carbon 
portion of PM2.5 mass, the state could not determine that 
these precursors did not make a significant contribution.
    Therefore, the state proceeded with a sensitivity analysis to 
determine the impact of reducing NH3 and VOC emissions on 
PM2.5 concentrations in the nonattainment area. OEPA and 
LADCO performed a modeled sensitivity analysis for attainment planning 
purposes using the 2021 attainment year concentrations at each monitor 
in the Cleveland area. LADCO applied a 40% emission reduction to 
anthropogenic sources of NH3 and VOC emissions for all 
source categories in the Cleveland nonattainment area. The OEPA 
submission indicated that the 40% comprehensive reduction was chosen 
because it was within the range of a previously published, 
comprehensive sensitivity analysis done in photochemical modeling which 
typically uses 30-50% when applying the reduction across all emission 
sectors--as done for this analysis.\2\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \2\ EPA examined examples in the published literature of general 
sensitivity modeling studies that look at the impact of across-the-
board percentage reductions in precursor emissions on secondary 
pollutants (including PM2.5, PM10, and ozone) 
(Vieno, 2016; Megaritis, 2013; Harrison, 2013; Derwent, 2014; Liu, 
2010; Pun, 2001). The majority of studies have used across the board 
percentage precursor emissions reductions of between 30% and 60%, 
with the most common reduction percentages being 30% and 50%.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The submission was made by the state prior to the date that the 
precursor guidance was issued by EPA; however, the modeled reduction 
levels are still within the suggested range of 30-70% reductions found 
in the precursor guidance.
    The results of the 2021 attainment planning sensitivity analyses 
show modeled impacts from reducing NH3 by 40% on 
PM2.5 concentrations at the monitors ranging from 0.10-0.21 
[micro]g/m\3\, and modeled impacts from reducing VOC ranging from 0.0-
0.01 [micro]g/m\3\. Although there is no explicit concentration which 
EPA has determined represents a significant contribution, the current 
draft precursor guidance suggests that a contribution level of 0.2 
[micro]g/m\3\ is an appropriate recommended threshold to identify an 
air quality change that is ``insignificant'' for annual average 
PM2.5. In this case, all modeled impacts for VOC emissions 
are well below the recommended threshold, and most of the modeled 
NH3 impacts are at or below the threshold as well, with only 
one ambient air quality monitor showing modeled ambient 
PM2.5 levels slightly above the recommended threshold (at 
0.21 [micro]g/m\3\).
    EPA's precursor guidance noted that there may be cases where 
precursor emissions have an impact above the recommended contribution 
thresholds, yet do not ``significantly contribute'' to levels that 
exceed the standard in the area (pursuant to section 189(e)). Under the 
PM2.5 SIP Requirements Rule, the significance of a 
precursor's contribution is to be determined ``based on the facts and 
circumstances of the area.'' Air agencies may thus provide EPA with 
information related to other factors they believe should be considered 
in determining whether the contribution of emissions of a particular 
precursor to levels that exceed the NAAQS is ``significant'' or not. 
Such factors may include: The amount by which a precursor's 
contribution exceeds the recommended contribution thresholds; the 
severity of nonattainment at relevant monitors and/or grid cell 
locations in the area; trends in ambient speciation data and precursor 
emissions; and any other relevant information.
    Based on a number of factors, in this case EPA believes that 
NH3 is not a significant precursor. The relevant factors 
include: The magnitude of the amount above the threshold is small 
compared to the total threshold amount (5% of the total threshold 
amount); the area continues to trend downward in both ambient 
monitoring data and emissions in direct PM2.5 and 
precursors; current preliminary monitoring data shows the area is 
attaining the standard; and additionally, this small amount of 
PM2.5 resulting from NH3 would not interfere with 
the area's ability to attain the standard, as evidenced by the fact 
that the preliminary 2015-2017 design value is 0.7 [micro]g/m\3\ below 
the NAAQS. Regardless of the finding of significance for these 
precursors, the area is expected to attain (based on preliminary design 
values) with only current controls in place, and it would not be 
required to control any sources further. Additionally, the area

[[Page 25613]]

has preliminary 2015-2017 data indicating that it has a three-year 
design value below the level of the NAAQS, so that any additional 
controls would not be implemented until well after the area has 
attained the standard.
    Based on the above, EPA agrees with the determination by Ohio that 
for attainment planning purposes, additional controls on existing 
sources of NH3 and VOC emissions do not need to be imposed.

RACM/RACT Analysis

    OEPA conducted a six-step RACM analysis that focused on direct 
PM2.5, NOX, and SO2: (1) Identify 
sources in the area for PM2.5, NOX, and 
SO2--that comprised over 90% of the emissions for each 
pollutant over all source categories; (2) identify potential control 
measures; (3) evaluate technological feasibility; (4) evaluate economic 
feasibility; (5) determine if the measures can be implemented within 
both four and five years; (6) evaluate the earliest practical year for 
attainment.
    As detailed in OEPA's RACT/RACM analysis in Appendix E, many of the 
sources are already well controlled. The state then identified current 
controls for each source as well as any additional measures or controls 
that are potentially available to each of the identified sources using 
EPA's ``Menu of Control Measures'' document, available online at http://www.epa.gov/air/criteria.html and the RACT/BACT/LAER Clearinghouse 
(RBLC) at http://cfpub.epa.gov/rblc/. OEPA then determined if any of 
the identified controls were technologically or economically feasible 
using EPA's the method outlined in the PM2.5 SIP 
Requirements Rule, which can include factors such as a source's process 
and operating procedures, raw materials, physical plant layout, and 
potential environmental impacts such as increased water pollution, 
waste disposal and energy requirements (see 40 CFR 51.1009(a)(3)(i)).
    In regard to area and mobile sources, a state may tailor the 
analysis to the considerations that are relevant to the local 
circumstances, such as the condition and extent of needed 
infrastructure, population size, and workforce type and habits, all of 
which may impact the availability of potential control measures in the 
area. (81 FR 58010)
    OEPA also determined economic feasibility of each identified 
measure or technology. That analysis included consideration of the cost 
of reducing emissions in the area and the difference between the cost 
of an emissions reduction measure at a particular source in the area 
and the cost of emissions reduction measures that have been implemented 
at similar sources in the same or other areas.
    OEPA determined that the technologically feasible measures that 
were identified were not economically feasible. For example, the state 
determined that the cost-effectiveness ranged from $5800 per ton to 
more than $40,000 per ton for measures that were found to be 
technologically feasible for major stationary sources. In addition, the 
highest costs of reductions were generally linked to controls of direct 
PM2.5, and OEPA has determined that reductions in direct 
PM2.5 would be the most effective at reducing the monitored 
concentrations in the Cleveland area. Thus, the state found that the 
most effective controls are not reasonable to implement based on cost.
    Finally, OEPA analyzed the implementation time frame of controls 
within four years and the earliest applicable attainment date, which by 
interpolation would be the end of 2017, and determined that the area 
would attain the standard prior to the state rulemaking and 
implementation of additional controls in the area. In fact, the area 
has preliminary 2015-2017 data indicating that it has a three-year 
design value below the level of the NAAQS, making implementation of 
additional controls to achieve attainment moot.
    As noted by OEPA, both the Federal and state ``on the books'' 
controls have led to additional control and will lead to additional 
emissions reductions in the future. Because of the historic 
nonattainment status of this area for both ozone and PM2.5, 
the Cleveland nonattainment area is one of the most well controlled 
areas in the state for pollutants contributing to formation of both 
PM2.5 and ozone. Ohio's current rules, current controls and 
the Federal ``on the books'' controls continue to satisfy RACT/RACM for 
the annual PM2.5 standard. Some of the current controls that 
are sufficient to meet the RACT/RACM requirement are Ohio's current 
RACT program found in Ohio Administrative Code (OAC) Chapter 3745-17, 
which controls NOX; rules under OAC Chapter 3745-18 which 
control SO2 sources for the state; and the inspection and 
maintenance program contained in OAC Chapter 3745-26, which reduces 
emissions of NOX and VOC from on-road vehicles. OEPA has 
determined that no additional controls are feasible to implement as 
RACM/RACT in the Cleveland area, and that current controls meet the 
requirement for RACM under 172(c)(1) and 189(a)(1)(C).
    EPA finds OEPA's determination reasonable, and is proposing to 
approve OEPA's determination that current controls meet the RACM/RACT 
requirement and that additional controls are not reasonable for other 
sources in the area or necessary to expeditiously attain the NAAQS.
    As noted above, the attainment demonstration modeling analysis 
reflecting 2021 projected emissions based on only current controls 
shows that projected 2021 air quality values at monitoring sites in the 
area range from 8.07-10.69 [micro]g/m\3\, well below the standard. 
Monitoring data for the 2014-2016 design values show only one monitor 
in the area is above the standard at 12.2 [micro]g/m\3\, and is 
trending downward. Interpolation between current and projected monitor 
values indicates that the area is likely to attain the standard with 
current controls by the end of the 2017 calendar year. Current, 
preliminary monitored design values for the years 2015-2017 shows the 
highest values being monitored in the Cleveland area is 11.3 [mu]g/
m\3\. EPA also conducted modeling in 2015 in support of regulatory 
initiatives regarding the revised ozone NAAQS and interstate transport 
(Appendix B), and these analyses also indicate that the Cleveland area 
will attain the PM2.5 NAAQS well before the outermost 
attainment date of December 31, 2021.
    Based on the above, EPA is proposing to find that current controls 
on sources in the nonattainment area meet the requirements of section 
172(c)(1) and section 189(a)(1)(C) of the CAA. Accordingly, EPA is 
proposing to approve current controls: Federal mobile source standards, 
transport rules, Regional Haze plans, and state VOC RACT rules as 
meeting the RACM/RACT provisions.

Nonattainment NSR Precursor Demonstration

    In addition to the attainment planning precursor demonstrations, 
which showed that neither existing sources of VOC nor existing sources 
of NH3 have a significant contribution to PM2.5 
concentrations, OEPA provided an analysis for both VOC and 
NH3 intended to show that increases in emissions of these 
precursors that may result from new or modified sources would not make 
a significant contribution to PM2.5 concentrations in the 
area. This demonstration is intended to justify the state's 
determination that major stationary sources of these precursors do not 
need to be regulated under the NNSR program for the area. For NNSR 
permitting purposes, CAA section 189(e), as interpreted by the 
PM2.5 SIP

[[Page 25614]]

Requirements Rule, provides an option for the state to provide a 
precursor demonstration intended to show that increases in emissions 
from potential new and existing major stationary sources of a 
particular precursor would not contribute significantly to levels that 
exceed the 2012 PM2.5 NAAQS in a particular nonattainment 
area. 40 CFR 51.1006(a)(3). In particular, EPA's regulations provide 
that a state choosing to submit an NNSR precursor demonstration should 
evaluate the sensitivity of PM2.5 levels in the 
nonattainment area to an increase in emissions of the precursor. If the 
state demonstrates that the estimated air quality changes determined 
through such an analysis are not significant, based on the facts and 
circumstances of the area, the state may use this information to 
identify new major stationary sources and major modifications of a 
precursor that will not be considered to contribute significantly to 
PM2.5 levels that exceed the standard in the nonattainment 
area under CAA section 189(e). Id. 51.1006(a)(3)(i). If EPA approves 
the state's NNSR precursor demonstration for a nonattainment area, 
major sources of the relevant precursor can be exempted from the NNSR 
major source permitting requirements for PM2.5 with respect 
to that precursor. Id. 51.1006(a)(3)(ii).
    For NNSR permitting purposes, sensitivity analyses examine 
potential increases in emissions through a model simulation that 
evaluates the effect on PM2.5 concentrations in the area 
resulting from a given set of precursor emission increases from one or 
more new or modified stationary sources. Ohio's 2011 and 2021 
comprehensive modeling inventories were used for this analysis. To help 
determine a theoretical growth scenario as a result of major source 
expansion (new or modified), Ohio first prepared inventories for VOC 
and NH3 for 2008 to 2014 for the entire State from Ohio's 
annual emissions reporting program. Ohio used inventories for the 
entire State in order to determine what types of major sources/source 
categories are likely to expand (new or modified) within the Cleveland 
area and at what magnitude (tons per year) those expansions are likely 
to occur. These inventories and the full detailed analysis are 
contained in Appendix F of Ohio's submission.
    Consistent with EPA's regulation and draft guidance, OEPA and LADCO 
have performed sensitivity analyses of potential increases in emissions 
through a model simulation that evaluates the effect on 
PM2.5 concentrations in the nonattainment area (including 
unmonitored areas) resulting from a given set of hypothetical 
NH3 or VOC precursor emission increases from modified major 
stationary sources of the respective precursors in the nonattainment 
area. The inventories and the full detailed analysis are contained in 
Appendix F of Ohio's submission. For the NH3 analysis, Ohio 
assumed emissions increases at three existing locations of 
NH3 in the area, as these would be the most likely future 
areas of growth in the Cleveland area. EPA believes that the use of the 
historical inventories to predict growth is reflective of the future 
potential increases specific to the Cleveland area given the current 
types of facilities and their respective locations, the urban density 
and ability to expand or build, as well as the types of state 
regulation or other Federal requirements (such as National Emission 
Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants) on facility types and controls 
required for other pollutants. EPA believes that this is an acceptable 
approach to estimating potential future growth.
    In addition to the modeled emissions increases based on historical 
growth at sources, LADCO and OEPA did an additional NH3 
modeling analysis (submitted July 18, 2017) based on a 100 tpy 
emissions increase (to represent major sources) in each modeled grid 
cell in the nonattainment area. EPA believes that this is a 
sufficiently conservative analysis that exceeds the level of actual 
potential NH3 emissions growth likely to occur in the area. 
Both of these approaches are consistent with suggested modeling in 
EPA's precursor guidance. Thus, EPA finds that this analysis serves as 
a reasonable evaluation of the sensitivity of PM2.5 
concentrations to a large emissions increase across the spatial area.
    For the VOC analysis, Ohio added 1,486 tpy of VOC emissions at 3 
existing source locations where VOC emissions increases potentially 
could occur in the nonattainment area. Compared to the 2011 inventory, 
this represents a 75% increase in VOC emissions from existing 
stationary sources (EGU and non-EGU). Compared to the 2021 projected 
inventory, this represents an 80% increase in stationary source 
emissions. For the NH3 analysis, Ohio added 325 tpy of 
NH3 emissions (scenario 1) to 3 existing source locations 
where NH3 emissions increases potentially could occur in the 
nonattainment area. Compared to the 2011 inventory, this represents a 
447% increase in NH3 emissions from existing stationary 
sources. Compared to the 2021 projected inventory, this represents a 
449% increase in NH3 from stationary sources. The additional 
NH3 analysis (scenario 2) had a total emissions increase of 
1,700 tpy, which is over 500% higher growth than the historical 
NH3 growth (scenario 1).
    Ohio found the addition of the NH3 emissions 
(approximately 350 tpy) into the model based on historical growth 
(scenario 1) would result in a peak impact of 0.08 [mu]g/m\3\, and the 
addition of the above VOC emissions would result in a peak impact of 
0.02 [mu]g/m\3\. The modeled impacts are well below the recommended 
significance contribution threshold of 0.2 [mu]g/m\3\; for VOC it is an 
order of magnitude difference, and for NH3 the maximum value 
is less than half the recommended significant contribution threshold 
level. The results of NH3 modeling for scenario 2 indicate 
that, even with a conservatively large NH3 increase, the 
maximum impact was 0.24 [mu]g/m\3\, which is only slightly above the 
recommended contribution threshold of 0.2 [mu]g/m\3\.
    While the increase is slightly above the recommended contribution 
threshold, EPA believes that it is reasonable to conclude that 
NH3 emissions from major stationary sources (in the context 
of a NNSR precursor demonstration) do not contribute significantly to 
PM2.5 concentrations in the nonattainment area for the 
following reasons: Historical growth of NH3 sources in the 
area are significantly less than what was modeled for scenario 2; the 
only likely future increases of NH3 emissions from major 
sources in the area are from the increased use of NH3 for 
EGU NOX control (ammonia slip) and would likely occur at 
existing EGUs (as modeled in scenario 1); the area continues to trend 
downward in both monitored PM2.5 concentrations and 
PM2.5 (direct and precursor) emissions; current preliminary 
monitoring data shows the area is attaining the standard; and, this 
small amount of additional ambient PM2.5 concentration, 
based on the modeling analysis, would therefore not interfere with the 
area's ability to attain the standard given that the current 
preliminary design value for 2015-2017 is 11.3 [mu]g/m\3\; and the 
additional modeled increase of 0.24 [mu]g/m\3\ would not impact the 
area's ability to attain or maintain the NAAQS.
    Based on the results of the modeling demonstration and the 
additional factors described in this section, EPA is proposing to 
approve Ohio's determination that emissions increases of either VOC or 
NH3 from new and modified major stationary sources would not 
contribute significantly to PM2.5 levels that exceed the 
2012 PM2.5 NAAQS in the Cleveland nonattainment

[[Page 25615]]

area. Accordingly, new or modified major sources of VOC and 
NH3 may be exempted from the state's NNSR program 
requirements for PM2.5 in the Cleveland PM2.5 
nonattainment area.

III. EPA's Proposed Action

    Ohio's attainment demonstration modeling, and precursor analysis 
for both attainment planning RACM and nonattainment NNSR determined 
that VOCs and NH3 do not significantly contribute to 
PM2.5 concentrations in the area. EPA finds that Ohio's 
analysis is reasonable and well supported. EPA is thus proposing to 
approve the following elements of the 2012 SIP submission: The base 
year 2011 emissions inventory to meet the section 172(c)(3) requirement 
for emission inventories; the demonstration of attainment for 2021 as 
meeting the statutory requirement in CAA 189(a)(1)(B); current controls 
as meeting RACM requirements of 172(c)(1) and 189(a)(1(C).

IV. Statutory and Executive Order Reviews

    Under the CAA, the Administrator is required to approve a SIP 
submission that complies with the provisions of the CAA and applicable 
Federal regulations. 42 U.S.C. 7410(k); 40 CFR 52.02(a). Thus, in 
reviewing SIP submissions, EPA's role is to approve state choices, 
provided that they meet the criteria of the CAA. Accordingly, this 
action merely approves state law as meeting Federal requirements and 
does not impose additional requirements beyond those imposed by state 
law. For that reason, this action:
     Is not a significant regulatory action subject to review 
by the Office of Management and Budget under Executive Orders 12866 (58 
FR 51735, October 4, 1993) and 13563 (76 FR 3821, January 21, 2011);
     Is not an Executive Order 13771 (82 FR 9339, February 2, 
2017) regulatory action because SIP approvals are exempted under 
Executive Order 12866;
     Does not impose an information collection burden under the 
provisions of the Paperwork Reduction Act (44 U.S.C. 3501 et seq.);
     Is certified as not having a significant economic impact 
on a substantial number of small entities under the Regulatory 
Flexibility Act (5 U.S.C. 601 et seq.);
     Does not contain any unfunded mandate or significantly or 
uniquely affect small governments, as described in the Unfunded 
Mandates Reform Act of 1995 (Pub. L. 104-4);
     Does not have Federalism implications as specified in 
Executive Order 13132 (64 FR 43255, August 10, 1999);
     Is not an economically significant regulatory action based 
on health or safety risks subject to Executive Order 13045 (62 FR 
19885, April 23, 1997);
     Is not a significant regulatory action subject to 
Executive Order 13211 (66 FR 28355, May 22, 2001);
     Is not subject to requirements of Section 12(d) of the 
National Technology Transfer and Advancement Act of 1995 (15 U.S.C. 272 
note) because application of those requirements would be inconsistent 
with the CAA; and
     Does not provide EPA with the discretionary authority to 
address, as appropriate, disproportionate human health or environmental 
effects, using practicable and legally permissible methods, under 
Executive Order 12898 (59 FR 7629, February 16, 1994).
    In addition, the SIP is not approved to apply on any Indian 
reservation land or in any other area where EPA or an Indian tribe has 
demonstrated that a tribe has jurisdiction. In those areas of Indian 
country, the rule does not have tribal implications and will not impose 
substantial direct costs on tribal governments or preempt tribal law as 
specified by Executive Order 13175 (65 FR 67249, November 9, 2000).

List of Subjects in 40 CFR Part 52

    Environmental protection, Air pollution control, Incorporation by 
reference, Nitrogen dioxide, Ozone, Particulate matter, Reporting and 
recordkeeping requirements, Sulfur oxides, Volatile organic compounds.

    Dated: May 21, 2018.
Cathy Stepp,
Regional Administrator, Region 5.
[FR Doc. 2018-11748 Filed 6-1-18; 8:45 am]
 BILLING CODE 6560-50-P