Document ID: EPA-HQ-OAR-2003-0061-0617
Agency: epa
Document Type: Supporting & Related Material
Title: 
Posted Date: 2004-12-17T05:00Z

6­
342
6.7
Region
7
Nonattainment
Areas
6.7.1
EPA
9­
Factor
Analyses
for
Missouri
for
Designation
of
PM2.5
Nonattainment
Areas
Recommendations:

MO­
IL
CMSA
Area
EPA
Recommendation
State
Recommendation
Missouri
Nonattaining
full
counties:
Franklin
Jefferson
St.
Charles
St.
Louis
St.
Louis
City
Nonattaining
full
counties:
Franklin
Jefferson
St.
Charles
St.
Louis
St.
Louis
City
In
Missouri
the
MO­
IL
St.
Louis
CMSA
counties
include
Franklin,
Jefferson,
Lincoln,
St.
Charles,
St.
Louis,
St.
Louis
City,
and
Warren
Counties.

Analysis
The
following
is
a
brief
summary
of
the
9­
factor
analysis
for
the
Missouri
portion
of
the
MO­
IL
St.
Louis
C/
MSA.
Missouri
counties
that
are
in
the
CMSA
are
in
bold;
other
counties
are
adjacent
to
the
C/
MSA
counties.

Factor
1:
Emissions
For
this
factor,
EPA
Region
7
looked
at
primary
PM2.5,
SO2,
NOx,
carbon,
and
crustal
PM2.5
emissions.
An
emissions
score
was
developed
for
each
county
to
serve
as
an
indicator
of
the
local
PM2.5
contribution
for
the
CMSA.
The
emissions
score
was
derived
as
follows:

Emissions
Score
=
[(
county
SO2
tons/
CMSA
SO2
tons)*(%
sulfate
of
urban
excess
PM2.5)]
+
[(
county
NOx
tons/
CMSA
NOx
tons)*(%
nitrate
of
urban
excess
PM2.5)]
+
[(
county
carbon
tons/
CMSA
carbon
tons)*(%
carbon
of
urban
excess
PM2.5)]
+
[(
county
crustal
PM
tons/
CMSA
crustal
PM
tons)*(%
crustal
of
urban
excess
PM2.5)]

The
emissions
score
incorporated
an
urban
excess
factor
to
evaluate
the
local­
scale
contribution
for
the
pollutants
listed
below.
This
excess
factor
(
local­
scale
contribution)
was
determined
by
comparing
speciated
pollutants
measurements
between
the
St.
Louis
(
urban)
monitor
at
Blair
Street
with
the
rural
monitor
at
Mingo
located
in
Stoddard
County
approximately
120
miles
SSE
of
St.
Louis.
The
local­
scale
contribution
for
each
pollutant
category
is
as
follows:
6­
343
Urban
Excess
(
mass)
 
6.2
ug/
m3
 
Nitrates
­
(
29%)
 
Sulfates
­
(
8%)
 
Total
Carbon
Mass
­
(
58%)
 
Crustal
Material
­
(
5%)

By
evaluating
the
speciation
data
between
these
two
monitoring
sites,
one
is
able
to
differentiate
between
regional
and
local
source
influences.
Regional
influences
are
seen
predominantly
in
the
summertime
with
sulfate
sources
(
power
plants),
while
during
the
fall
and
winter
seasons,
higher
levels
of
total
carbon
and
nitrates
are
seen
from
local
sources.

The
emissions
score
for
all
12
counties
(
Missouri
and
Illinois)
within
MO­
IL
C/
MSA
add
to
100.
Counties
adjacent
to
the
C/
MSA
are
also
calculated
an
emissions
score
so
that
emissions
from
those
counties
can
be
compared
to
the
CMSA
counties.

The
following
table
shows
total
emissions
(
in
tons/
year)
and
emission
scores
for
Missouri
counties
that
are
included
in
the
MO­
IL
St.
Louis
C/
MSA
and
for
those
that
are
adjacent
to
the
CMSA.
(
Date
source:
2001
NEI)

County
direct
PM2.5
(
tons/
yr)
SO2
(
tons/
yr)
NOx
(
tons/
yr)
Carbon
PM2.5
(
tons/
yr)
Crustal/
other
direct
PM2.5
(
tons/
yr)
Emission
Score
Cum
Emission
Score
St.
Louis,
MO
6,689
30,400
53,358
3,456
2,897
27.4
27.4
St.
Louis
City,
MO
2,424
14,647
27,193
1,214
958
11.0
55.2
Jefferson,
MO
4,870
52,671
13,612
1,160
3,291
10.4
65.6
St.
Charles,
MO
3,424
40,596
25,793
896
2,415
10.2
75.8
Franklin,
MO
4,066
45,216
15,482
918
2,864
9.1
84.9
Lincoln,
MO
1,650
221
2,935
273
1,358
2.1
93.8
Warren,
MO
889
324
1,803
205
674
1.5
98.9
Crawford,
MO
590
110
2,199
183
396
1.4
Gasconade,
MO
533
248
1,727
132
393
1.0
Montgomery,
MO
879
364
1,740
145
719
1.2
Pike,
MO
1,156
15,206
10,931
206
773
3.3
St.
Francois,
MO
1,212
697
4,204
328
825
2.5
*
Ste.
Genevieve,
MO
1,308
9,205
18,027
255
940
2.7
to
4.2
Washington,
MO
467
152
1,161
137
322
1.0
*
­­
Emissions
in
Ste.
Genevieve
County
were
adjusted
to
account
for
industrial
growth
from
new
permits
and
PSD
applications
received
by
the
state
of
Missouri.
This
growth
resulted
in
the
cumulative
emission
score
changing
from
2.7
to
4.2.

A
natural
break
was
observed
for
Missouri
counties
with
an
emission
score
9.1
and
above.
In
the
case
of
the
MO­
IL,
the
natural
break
CMSA
county
is
Franklin
Co.,
MO
6­
344
(
Emission
Score
=
9.1).
Applied
to
Missouri,
this
process
identifies
St.
Louis,
St.
Louis
City,
Jefferson,
St.
Charles,
and
Franklin
counties
in
MO
as
candidates
for
a
PM2.5
nonattainment
designation
(
i.
e.,
counties
with
emission
scores
>=
9.1),
and,
therefore,
requiring
further
analysis
of
the
remaining
factors
is
required
(
see
below).

Crawford,
Gasconade,
Montgomery,
Pike,
St.
Francois,
Ste.
Genevieve,
and
Washington
counties
in
Missouri
are
dropped
from
further
analysis
because
(
1)
none
of
these
counties
contain
violating
PM2.5
monitors,
(
2)
none
were
recommended
for
a
nonattainment
designation
by
the
state,
and
(
3)
al
have
emission
scores
significantly
below
<
9.1.
The
next
closest
county
is
Ste.
Genevieve
with
an
emission
score
of
4.2
based
upon
projected
emissions
from
industrial
growth.
NOx
emissions
increased
for
St.
Genevieve
from
industrial
growth
by
12,000
tons/
year,
while
SO2
emissions
increased
by
4,000
tons/
year.

Factor
2:
Air
Quality
County
2001­
2003
design
value
(
PM2.5
in
µ
g/
m3)
St.
Louis
City,
MO
15.2
Jefferson,
MO
14.5
St.
Charles,
MO
14.3
St.
Louis,
MO
14.0
Based
on
the
analysis
for
this
factor,
only
one
county,
St.
Louis
City,
shows
a
violation
of
the
annual
PM2.5
standard.
The
violating
area
(
St.
Louis
City)
must
have
a
nonattainment
designation.
However,
this
factor
alone
is
not
sufficient
to
eliminate
the
other
counties
as
candidates
for
nonattainment
status.

Factor
3:
Population
Density
and
Urbanization
County
2002
Population
(
people)
2002
Pop
Density
(
pop/
sq
mi)
St.
Louis,
MO
1,018,102
2,004
St.
Louis
City,
MO
338,353
5,457
St.
Charles,
MO
303,030
540
Jefferson,
MO
203,993
310
Franklin,
MO
95,890
104
Factors
3­
5
correlate
very
well
with
mobile
source
emissions,
population
and
commuting
activities.
An
evaluation
of
these
factors
and
Vehicles
Miles
Traveled
(
VMT)
data
support
the
county
emission
scores
in
Factor
1.
The
national
approach
of
utilizing
emission
scores
outlined
in
Factor
1
supported
the
recommendations
made
by
the
state.

Factor
4:
Traffic
and
commuting
patterns
County
2002
VMT
(
1000
miles)
VMT
Growth1
(
1000
miles)
VMT
%
Change2
St.
Louis,
MO
11,553
3,280
24
St.
Louis
City,
MO
4,178
1,719
41
6­
345
St.
Charles,
MO
2,738
577
21
Jefferson,
MO
2,511
322
13
Franklin,
MO
1,391
­
263
­
19
1
2002
to
2010
2
2002
to
2010
(
as
percentage
of
2002
population)

Factor
5:
Expected
growth
County
2002
Population
(
people)
Population
Growth1
(
people)
%
Change2
St.
Louis,
MO
1,018,102
22,786
2
St.
Louis
City,
MO
338,353
­
48,496
­
12
St.
Charles,
MO
303,030
70,976
33
Jefferson,
MO
203,993
26,719
16
Franklin,
MO
95,890
104
16
1
2002
to
2010
2
Estimated
change
in
population
growth,
2002
to
2010
(
as
a
percentage
of
2002
population)

Factors
6­
9
did
not
significantly
influence
the
designation
process.

Factor
6:
Meteorology
An
evaluation
conducted
by
Region
7
included
trajectory
cluster
analysis
using
sulfate,
nitrate,
and
organic
carbon
PM2.5
speciation
measurements
for
the
Blair
Street
site
in
St.
Louis.
This
analysis
generates
back
trajectories
from
the
HYSPLIT
model
to
characterize
meteorological
events
for
8
specific
clusters.
High
nitrate
events
occurred
from
trajectories
originating
from
the
North
 
Northwest,
which
agrees
with
the
atmospheric
chemistry
for
nitrate
formation
that
occurs
during
fall/
winter
cooling
periods.
High
sulfate
events
occurred
during
the
summer
with
trajectories
occurring
from
the
Ohio
River
Valley
or
upper
Mississippi
River
Valley.

Factor
7:
Geography/
topography
The
Missouri
counties
of
the
St.
Louis
MO­
IL
CMSA
counties
do
not
have
any
geographical
or
topographical
boundaries
limiting
transport
across
this
airshed.
The
only
observation
noted
in
our
review
was
the
noticeable
gradient
of
PM2.5
measurements
as
you
go
from
east
to
west
possibly
indicating
a
more
significant
source
of
PM2.5
sources
from
the
East
or
Illinois
side
of
the
River.
The
critical
monitor
is
located
in
Madison
County,
Illinois
with
a
2001­
2004
design
value
of
17.5
µ
g/
m3.
As
you
move
from
East
to
West,
the
ambient
levels
drop
to
14
µ
g/
m3.

Factor
8:
Jurisdictional
boundaries
Jurisdictional
boundaries
did
not
play
a
role
in
determining
nonattainment
boundaries.
Areas
designated
as
8­
hour
ozone
nonattainment
areas
are
also
important
boundaries
for
state
air
quality
planning.
Franklin,
Jefferson,
St.
Charles,
St.
Louis,
and
St.
Louis
City
were
included
in
the
nonattainment
area
associated
with
the
St.
Louis
8­
hour
ozone
nonattainment
area.
A
goal
in
designating
PM2.5
nonattainment
areas
is
to
achieve
a
6­
346
degree
of
consistency
with
ozone
NA
areas.
Comparison
of
ozone
areas
with
potential
PM2.5
NA
areas,
therefore,
gives
added
weight
to
designation
of
the
above
counties.

Factor
9:
Level
of
control
of
emission
sources
A
review
of
all
the
factors
as
well
as
the
recommendations
and
supporting
documentation
from
the
state
of
Missouri
did
not
identify
any
additional
counties
that
should
be
excluded
or
included
in
the
St.
Louis
PM2.5
nonattainment
area.
Based
upon
this
review
and
the
methodology
established
by
the
PM2.5
Review
Team
consisting
of
members
from
Regions
1­
5
and
7­
9
as
well
as
representatives
from
the
Office
of
Air
Quality
Planning
and
Standards,
the
following
Missouri
counties
are
recommended
for
nonattainment
for
PM2.5
for
the
St.
Louis
Metropolitan
Area:

 
St.
Louis
 
St.
Louis
City
 
St.
Charles
 
Jefferson
 
Franklin