Document ID: EPA-HQ-OAR-2003-0090-0246
Agency: epa
Document Type: Supporting & Related Material
Title: 
Posted Date: 2004-04-07T04:00Z

i
Austin­
Round
Rock
MSA
Attainment
Maintenance
Analysis
Early
Action
Compact
Milestone
Technical
Report
Prepared
by
The
Capital
Area
Planning
Council
(
CAPCO)
On
behalf
of
The
Austin­
Round
Rock
MSA
Clean
Air
Coalition
Austin,
Texas,
March
2004
ii
TABLE
OF
CONTENTS
1
Introduction
............................................................................................................
1
2
Federal
and
State
Rules
..........................................................................................
2
3
Local
Measures
.......................................................................................................
4
4
Photochemical
Modeling
and
Design
Value
Analysis
............................................
6
4.1
Photochemical
Modeling
....................................................................................
6
4.2
Trends
in
Ozone
Monitoring
Data
in
Austin........................................................
9
5
Emissions
Trends
from
2007
to
2012....................................................................
12
5.1
Area
Sources.....................................................................................................
13
5.2
Non­
Road
Mobile
Sources
................................................................................
16
5.3
On­
Road
Mobile
Sources..................................................................................
18
5.4
Point
Sources....................................................................................................
27
6
The
Continuing
Planning
Process
........................................................................
32
Austin­
Round
Rock
MSA
Attainment
Maintenance
Analysis
1
1
Introduction
Section
II,
E
of
the
Austin­
Round
Rock
MSA
Early
Action
Compact
entitled
"
Maintenance
for
Growth"
lists
three
options
for
the
area
to
demonstrate
that
attainment
of
the
ozone
standard
will
be
maintained
through
2012.
Due
to
the
insufficient
time
for
the
development
of
a
2012
modeling
emissions
inventory,
option
c
was
selected
for
the
analysis.
The
objective
of
this
document,
in
accordance
with
option
c,
is
to
identify
and
quantify
federal,
state,
and/
or
local
measures
indicating
sufficient
reductions
to
offset
growth
estimates.
Staff
has
evaluated
the
anticipated
future
growth
of
the
region
to
ensure
that
the
area
will
remain
in
attainment
of
the
8­
hour
standard
for
the
time
period
2007
through
2012
and
2015,
as
appropriate.
This
evaluation
included
analysis
of
population
growth
and
its
effect
on
on­
road
mobile
emissions
and
area
sources,
and
new
and
planned
new
point
sources.
Details
that
support
this
summary
may
be
found
in
the
referenced
appendices.

Descriptions
of
Federal,
State
and
Local
reduction
measures
are
presented
in
the
Austin/
Round
Rock
Emissions
Reduction
Strategies
document
(
March
2004).
Local
reduction
measures
are
described
in
detail
by
the
source
type
affected,
the
control
strategy,
implementation
plan,
estimated
emission
reduction,
and
estimated
cost.
Austin­
Round
Rock
MSA
Attainment
Maintenance
Analysis
2
2
Federal
and
State
Rules
2.1
Introduction
Control
strategy
projections
are
estimates
of
future
year
emissions
that
also
include
the
expected
impact
of
modified
or
additional
control
regulations.
We
determined
future
scheduled
regulations,
whether
at
the
federal,
state,
or
local
level,
and
applied
them
to
sources
in
our
area.
Fuel
switching,
fuel
efficiency
improvements,
improvements
in
performance
due
to
economic
influences,
or
any
occurrence
that
alters
the
emission
producing
process
may
also
affect
future
year
emissions.
These
should
all
be
reflected
in
the
projections
through
the
future
year
control
factor,
emission
factor,
or
in
some
cases,

by
adjusting
the
activity
growth
forecast.
Control
factors
and
emission
factors
vary
by
source
category
and
are
continuously
being
revised
and
improved
based
on
field
and
laboratory
measurements.
In
many
cases,
it
will
also
be
necessary
to
account
for
multiple
programs,
which
affect
the
same
source
category.
Therefore,
expected
controls
are
calculated
for
each
action
and
applied
appropriately
on
the
stated
dates.
Other
programs
are
complex
and
determining
appropriate
control
factors
or
adjustments
to
activity
forecasts
for
specific
source
categories
is
not
straightforward.
For
example,
initiatives
to
reduce
energy
use,
such
as
the
EPA
Green
Lights
program,
are
aimed
at
reducing
electricity
demand.
This,
in
turn,
is
tied
to
reductions
in
emissions
from
individual
utility
boilers.
Emission
caps
or
allowance
programs
set
overall
constraints
on
future
emission
levels,
but
this
must
also
be
translated
into
reductions
at
individual
units
in
most
cases.

For
trading
programs,
a
simplified
approach
may
be
to
constrain
emissions
at
individual
units
to
the
level
used
to
calculate
the
emission
budget.
More
complex
approaches
would
examine
how
individual
units
will
respond
 
by
controlling
emissions
or
purchasing
credits.

2.2
Federal
and
State
Rules
In
1999,
the
Texas
Legislature
passed
two
laws
governing
emissions
for
point
sources
in
Texas.
The
2007
and
2012
emission
inventories
account
for
Senate
Bill
7,
which
limits
NOx
emissions
from
grand­
fathered
electric
generating
utilities
(
EGU)
in
central
and
Austin­
Round
Rock
MSA
Attainment
Maintenance
Analysis
3
eastern
Texas
and
Senate
Bill
766,
which
increases
emissions
fees
on
grand­
fathered
nonelectric
generating
facilities.
Tables
4.1­
1
and
­
2
summarize
state
and
federal
rules
effective
through
the
2007
 
2012
planning
period
for
the
Austin­
Round
Rock
MSA.

The
CAAP
projects
emission
reductions
from
the
following
federal
and
state
initiatives.

Table
0­
1
EPA­
ISSUED
RULES
Estimated
NOx
Category
Reductions
in
2007
(
tpd)
Area
Source
measures:
VOC
NOx
Architectural
and
Industrial
Maintenance
Coatings
Auto
Body
Refinishing
1.44
0.52
n/
a
n/
a
On­
Road
measures:
Tier
2
Vehicle
Emission
Standards
National
Low
Emission
Vehicle
Program
Heavy­
Duty
Diesel
Engine
Rule
5.71
1.70
0.34
16.79
3.01
11.78
Non­
Road
measures:
Small
Spark­
Ignition
Handheld
Engines
Emissions
from
Compression­
Ignition
Engines
Emissions
from
Nonroad
Large
Spark­
Ignition
Engines,
and
Recreational
Engines
Recreational
Marine
Standards
Locomotives
9.27
n/
a
3.48
2.28
Point
Source
Measures:
ALCOA
Consent
Decree
n/
a
54
Table
2.1­
1.
Federal
emission
reduction
rules
Sec.
Category
Reductions
in
2007
(
tpd)
Area
Source:
VOC
NOx
3.1
Degreasing
Units
1.96
n/
a
3.2
HB
2914
Grand
fathered
Pipelines
TBD
TBD
On­
road
Source:
3.3
Stage
1
Vapor
Recovery
3.72
n/
a
Non­
road
Source:
3.4
Low
Emission
Diesel
TBD
TBD
Point
Source:
3.5
SB
7
EGU
NOx
Reductions
n/
a
10.09
3.6
SB
766
Voluntary
Emissions
Reduction
Permit
TBD
TBD
3.7
HB
2912
Grandfathered
Requirements
TBD
TBD
3.8
Cement
Kiln
NOx
Limits
n/
a
2.16
Table
2.1­
2.
Summary
of
TCEQ­
Issued
Rules
for
Reduction
Strategies
Austin­
Round
Rock
MSA
Attainment
Maintenance
Analysis
4
3
Local
Measures
Various
emission
reduction
techniques
can
effectively
reduce
ozone
precursors.
Emission
reduction
methods
employed
nationally
(
e.
g.,
automotive
emission
reductions),
statewide
and
regionally
(
emission
reductions
from
EGUs)
benefit
the
Austin
area,
but
more
reductions
are
needed
to
ensure
clean
air
for
the
region.
The
EAC
provides
the
mechanism
for
implementation
of
local
emission
reduction
techniques
to
show
attainment
of
the
standard.
Table
3.1
presents
list
of
the
local
emission
reduction
measures.

NOx
Reductions
(
tpd)
VOC
Reductions
(
tpd)
A1
Inspection
and
Maintenance
(
I&
M)
3.19
4.19
A2
Idling
Restrictions
on
Heavy
Diesel
0.19
0.00
A3
Commute
Emission
Reduction
Program
0.27
0.30
A4
Stage
I
Vapor
Recovery
Requirement
Change
0.00
4.88
A5
Low
Emission
Gas
Cans
0.00
1.97
A6
Degreasing
Controls
0.00
6.38
A7
Autobody
Refinishing
Controls
0.00
0.05
A8
Cutback
Asphalt
0.00
1.03
A9
Low
Reid
Vapor
Pressure
Gas
0.00
2.87
A10
BACT
and
Offsets
for
New
or
Modified
Point
Sources
TBD
TBD
A11
Petroleum
Dry
Cleaning
0.00
1.06
A12
Texas
Emission
Reduction
Program
(
TERP)
2.00
0.00
A13
Power
Plant
Reductions
7.08
0.00
Total
(
Does
not
include
TBD)
12.73
23.64
Emission
Reduction
Measures
(
State
Regulations)

Table
3.1
List
of
local
emissions
reduction
strategies.
Reductions
in
2007.
Note:
The
I&
M
program
assumes
participation
from
Hays
County.
Without
Hays
Co
participation
reductions
are
2.89tpd
and
3.84tpd
of
NOx
and
VOC
respectively.

The
emissions
share
of
the
local
reduction
measures
is
presented
in
figures
3.1
and
3.2.

Detailed
description
of
each
local
reduction
measure
is
presented
in
the
Austin/
Round
Rock
Emissions
Reduction
Strategies
document
(
March
2004).
In
this
report
the
selected
measures
are
described
by
the
source
type
affected,
the
control
strategy,
implementation
plan,
estimated
emission
reduction,
and
estimated
cost.
Austin­
Round
Rock
MSA
Attainment
Maintenance
Analysis
5
2007
NOx
Emission
Inventory
Emissions
Reductions
Point
Sources
Nonroad
Mobile
Sources
Affected
by
TERP
OnRoad
Mobile
Sources
Affected
by
I/
M
OnRoad
Mobile
Sources
Unaffected
by
I/
M
Area
Sources
Nonroad
Mobile
Sources
Unaffected
by
TERP
TERP
1%
I/
M
2%
TERP
1%
All
Point
Source
Reductions
5%

Figure
3.1
Share
of
the
local
emission
reduction
measures
to
the
2007
NOx
Emissions
Inventory
2007
VOC
Emission
Inventory
Emissions
Reductions
Point
Sources
OnRoad
Mobile
Sources
Affected
by
I/
M
OnRoad
Mobile
Sources
Unaffected
by
I/
M
Area
Sources
Nonroad
Mobile
Sources
All
Area
Sources
Controls
11%

I/
M
2%

Figure
3.2
Share
of
the
local
emission
reduction
measures
to
the
2007
VOC
Emissions
Inventory
Austin­
Round
Rock
MSA
Attainment
Maintenance
Analysis
6
4
Photochemical
Modeling
and
Design
Value
Analysis
This
chapter
discusses
impacts
of
the
federal
and
local
measures
on
2007
ozone
levels.

Projected
2007
emission
inventories
were
developed
for
the
modeling
domain
and
used
with
the
identical
meteorological
data
and
CAMx
configuration
developed
for
the
Base
Case
to
model
the
Future
Case.
Relative
reduction
factors
and
future
8­
hour
ozone
design
values
at
Austin's
CAMs
sites
were
calculated
in
accordance
with
the
U.
S.
EPA's
Draft
Guidance
on
the
Use
of
Models
and
Other
Analyses
in
Attainment
Demonstrations
for
the
8­
Hour
Ozone
NAAQS
(
1999)
and
the
U.
S.
EPA's
Protocol
for
Early
Action
Compacts
(
2003).
The
results
indicate
that
regardless
of
whether
current
8­
hour
ozone
design
values
are
calculated
based
on
the
years
straddling
the
latest
emission
inventory
for
the
area
(
1998­
2000)
or
the
time
period
of
the
attainment
designation
(
2001­
2003),

the
attainment
test
is
passed
at
both
Austin
monitors
during
this
modeling
episode.

4.1
Photochemical
Modeling
Figure
4.1­
1
presents
design
values
for
Austin­
Round
Rock
MSA
and
emissions
trends.

Note
that
EPA
regulatory
monitoring
sites
were
installed
after
1996.

The
design
values
for
the
years
that
straddle
1999
were
used
as
the
"
current"
year
to
estimate
the
design
value
for
2007.
These
design
values
were
the
highest
measured
in
the
Austin
area
at
both
monitors.
More
recent
monitoring
provides
lower
design
values
and
the
latest
design
values
for
the
years
straddling
2002
do
not
exceed
the
standard.
Since
the
worst­
case
design
values
were
used
in
this
CAAP,
it
is
important
to
put
these
values
into
perspective.

Analysis
of
the
various
metrics
related
to
the
meteorological
conditions
indicates
that
the
conditions
favorable
to
formation
of
high
ozone
occurred
more
often
than
normal
during
1999
and
less
often
than
normal
in
2001.
The
selection
of
the
"
current"
year
is
based
on
the
date
of
the
most
recent
emissions
inventory.
If
an
emissions
inventory
were
prepared
for
2002,
then
the
current
year
would
be
2002,
which
has
a
maximum
design
value
of
84
Austin­
Round
Rock
MSA
Attainment
Maintenance
Analysis
7
ppb.
Note
that
the
2007
design
value
is
affected
by
federal
and
state
rules
that
will
reduce
regional
and
local
emission
in
2007.
The
effects
of
local
emission
reduction
measures
selected
in
the
EAC
CAAP
were
modeled
separately.

Figure
4.1­
1
Austin­
Round
Rock
MSA
design
value
and
emissions
trends
Future
Case
modeling
used
projected
2007
emission
inventories
with
the
meteorological
data
and
CAMx
configuration
developed
for
the
successful
Base
Case.
Inputs
followed
EPA's
Draft
Guidance
on
the
Use
of
Models
and
Other
Analyses
in
Attainment
Demonstrations
for
the
8­
Hour
Ozone
NAAQS
(
1999)
and
their
Protocol
for
Early
Action
Compacts
(
2003).
Photochemical
modeling
is
an
iterative
process.
The
emissions
inventories
used
in
the
model
are
often
refined
to
better
predict
emissions.
The
modeling
for
the
future
case
has
been
performed
with
five
versions
of
the
2007
emissions
inventory,
each
with
minor
modifications
or
improvements.
This
modeling
provides
results
that
are
close
to
the
standard
of
85
ppb,
but
in
three
cases
the
design
value
has
been
slightly
below
the
standard
(
84.8
ppb,
84.5
ppb,
84.91
ppb,
84.55
ppb
and
84.37
ppb)
and
in
two
cases
the
design
value
has
been
slightly
above
the
standard
(
85.6
ppb
and
85.08
ppb).
It
is
likely
that
the
2007
emissions
inventory
for
the
Houston/
Galveston
area
will
be
modified
by
TCEQ
in
the
near
future,
which
may
affect
future
case
model
values.
Results
of
Austin­
Round
Rock
MSA
Attainment
Maintenance
Analysis
8
future
case
modeling
are
too
close
to
the
standard
to
provide
meaningful
conclusions
about
the
area's
likelihood
of
demonstrating
attainment
by
2007
without
local
emission
reduction
measures.

Monitor
site
1999
design
value
Relative
reduction
factor
Estimated
design
value
for
2007
*
Attainment
of
the
8­
hour
standard?
Audubon
89
ppb
0.948
84.37
Yes
Murchison
87
ppb
0.948
82.48
Yes
Table
4.1­
2
Model
results
for
base
2007
modeling
with
the
September
1999
Episode
Emission
Reduction
Measure
NOx
Reductions
tpd
VOC
Reductions
tpd
1I/
M
2.89
3.84
Heavy
Duty
Vehicle
Idling
Restrictions
0.19
0.0
Commute
Emission
Reduction
Program
0.27
0.30
Low
Emission
Gas
Cans
0.0
2.60
Stage
I
Vapor
Recovery
0.0
4.88
Degreasing
Controls
0.0
6.38
Autobody
Refinishing
0.0
0.05
Cut
Back
Asphalt
0.0
1.03
Low
Reid
Vapor
Pressure
Gas
0.0
2.87
TERP
2.0
0.0
Power
Plant
Reductions
7.08
0.0
TERMs
0.719
0.828
Table
4.1­
3
List
of
Modeled
Emission
Reduction
Measures
1
Note
that
NOx
and
VOC
reductions
due
to
the
Inspection
and
Maintenance
program
are
estimated
for
Travis
and
Williamson
County.
The
Low
Emission
Gas
Cans
measure
includes
residential
and
commercial
use.
Austin­
Round
Rock
MSA
Attainment
Maintenance
Analysis
9
Strategy
Model
Run
Emission
Reduction
Measure
1
I/
M
only
(
without
Hays
County)
2
All
State
Assisted
Measures
(
with
TERMs)
but
without
I&
M
in
Hays
County
and
without
low
Reid
Vapor
Pressure
gasoline
3
TERP
only
(
modeled
at
2
tpd
reduction)
All
measures
with
VOC
reductions
and
no
NOx
reductions
Low
Emission
Gas
Cans
Stage
I
Vapor
Recovery
Degreasing
Controls
Autobody
Refinishing
Cut
Back
Asphalt
4
Low
Reid
Vapor
Pressure
Gas
5
Point
Sources
Only
Table
4.14
List
of
Emission
Reduction
Measures
Modeled
for
Each
Strategy.

Control
Strategy
Run
Monitor
site
1999
design
value
Relative
reduction
factor
Estimated
design
value
for
2007
*
Attainment
of
the
8­
hour
standard?
Audubon
89
ppb
0.944
84.02
Yes
1
Murchison
87
ppb
0.944
83.13
Yes
Audubon
89
ppb
0.937
83.39
Yes
2
Murchison
87
ppb
0.934
81.26
Yes
Audubon
89
ppb
0.946
84.19
Yes
3
Murchison
87
ppb
0.947
82.39
Yes
Audubon
89
ppb
0.946
84.19
Yes
4
Murchison
87
ppb
0.945
82.22
Yes
Audubon
89
ppb
0.944
84.02
Yes
5
Murchison
87
ppb
0.943
82.04
Yes
Table
4.1­
5
Model
Results
for
Emission
Reduction
Measures
Applied
to
Base
2007
EI
with
the
September
1999
Episode
4.2
Trends
in
Ozone
Monitoring
Data
in
Austin
TCEQ
(
previously
the
Texas
Natural
Resource
Conservation
Commission
and
prior
to
that
the
Texas
Air
Control
Board)
has
monitored
ozone
concentrations
at
two
sites
in
Austin
since
1983.
The
site
at
Murchison
has
not
moved,
but
the
other
site
was
moved
in
1997
to
the
current
site
named
Audubon.
To
be
consistent,
these
analyses
will
be
limited
to
the
time
period
beginning
in
1997
when
ozone
concentrations
were
measured
at
both
the
Murchison
and
Audubon
sites.
Austin­
Round
Rock
MSA
Attainment
Maintenance
Analysis
10
Since
the
EAC
addresses
8­
hour
ozone
concentrations,
these
analyses
will
be
performed
for
8­
hour
time
periods.
A
number
of
analysis
metrics
can
be
used
to
evaluate
trends
in
ozone
concentrations.
Among
these
are
the
highest
concentration,
the
second
highest
concentration,
the
third
highest
concentration
and
the
fourth
highest
concentration.
At
each
monitor
the
annual
8­
hour
ozone
design
value
is
calculated
over
three
consecutive
years.
It
is
the
average
of
the
fourth
highest
daily
8­
hour
ozone
concentration
measured
over
each
of
the
three
consecutive
years.
The
area­
wide
design
value
is
the
highest
of
the
design
values
for
all
of
the
monitors
in
the
area.
The
average
for
the
design
value
is
truncated
and
if
that
value
is
greater
than
or
equal
to
85
ppb,
the
standard
is
exceeded.

Figure
4.2­
1
shows
the
four
highest
8­
hour
ozone
concentrations
and
the
design
values
at
the
Audubon
monitoring
site
from
1997
to
2003.
Figure
4.2­
2
shows
those
same
values
for
the
Murchison
monitoring
site.
Figure
4.2­
3
shows
the
design
values
for
Audubon
and
Murchison
and
the
area
design
values
from
1997
to
2002.

An
analysis
of
historical
trends
of
monitoring
in
the
Austin
area
indicates
that
a
design
value
of
89
ppb
is
the
highest
ever
measured.
A
simple
analysis
of
potential
8­
hour
ozone
design
values
in
Austin
based
on
historical
monitoring
data
indicated
that
in
2003
87
ppb
is
the
highest
design
value
likely
to
be
monitored.
Austin­
Round
Rock
MSA
Attainment
Maintenance
Analysis
11
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
1997
1998
199
9
2000
2001
2002
2003
8­
Hr
Ozone
Conc,
ppb.

highest
2nd
high
3rd
high
4th
high
Design
value
Figure
4.2­
1.
Four
Highest
8­
hour
Ozone
Concentrations
and
Design
Values
(
ppb)
at
the
Audubon
monitoring
station
for
the
1997
through
2003
period.

70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
8­
Hr
Ozone
Conc,
ppb.

highest
2nd
high
3rd
high
4th
high
Design
value
Figure
4.2­
2
Four
Highest
8­
hour
Ozone
Concentrations
and
Design
Values
(
ppb)
at
the
Murchison
monitoring
station
for
the
1997
through
2003
period.

Austin
Area
8­
Hour
Ozone
Design
Values,
ppb
75
80
85
90
95
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
8­
Hr
Ozone
Conc,
ppb.

Murchison
Design
Value
Audubon
Design
Value
Area
Wide
Design
Value
Figure
4.2­
3.
Design
Values
for
Austin
Area
Austin­
Round
Rock
MSA
Attainment
Maintenance
Analysis
12
5
Emissions
Trends
from
2007
to
2012
The
goal
in
developing
emission
projections
is
to
attempt
to
account
for
as
many
of
the
important
variables
that
affect
future
year
emissions
as
possible.
They
are
a
function
of
change
in
activity
(
growth
or
decline)
combined
with
changes
in
the
emission
rate
or
controls
applicable
to
the
source.
To
a
large
extent,
projection
inventories
are
based
on
forecasts
of
industrial
growth,
population
growth,
changes
in
land
use
patterns,
and
transportation
growth.
Changes
in
the
emission
rate
of
sources
can
be
influenced
by
such
causes
as
technological
advances,
environmental
regulations,
age
or
deterioration,
how
the
source
is
operated,
and
fuel
formulations.

Figures
5.1
and
5.2
display
NOx
and
VOC
emissions
in
2007
and
2012.
Most
significant
reductions
are
visible
in
the
onroad
mobile
category.

NOx
Emissions
from
2007
to
2012
in
Austin­
Round
Rock
MSA
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
Area
Sources
Nonroad
Mobile
Sources
Onroad
Mobile
Sources
Point
Sources
Emission
Category
Tons
per
Day
2007
2012
Figure
5.1
Austin­
Round
Rock
MSA
NOx
Emissions
from
2007
to
2012
Austin­
Round
Rock
MSA
Attainment
Maintenance
Analysis
13
VOC
Emissions
from
2007
to
2012
in
Austin­
Round
Rock
MSA
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
140.00
Area
Sources
Nonroad
Mobile
Sources
Onroad
Mobile
Sources
Point
Sources
Emission
Category
Tons
per
Day
2007
2012
Figure
5.2
Austin­
Round
Rock
MSA
VOC
Emissions
from
2007
to
2012
Note
that
total
anthropogenic
emissions
in
2012
are
smaller
by
20.89tpd
and
3.89tpd
of
NOx
and
VOC
respectively
from
2007
future
year
base.
These
emissions
reductions
are
mainly
due
to
the
federal
and
state
rules
discussed
earlier
and
due
to
the
cleaner
vehicles
and
new
technology
that
will
be
available
by
2012..

5.1
Area
Sources
The
emissions
associated
with
area
sources
are
directly
related
to
population
and
economic
activity.
These
two
data
sources
are
typically
used
to
estimate
area
source
emissions.

The
population
of
the
region
has
been
growing
for
the
past
60
years
and
is
expected
to
continue
to
grow
through
2012.
Austin­
Round
Rock
MSA
Attainment
Maintenance
Analysis
14
County
1999
2002
2005
2007
2012
Bastrop
55.68
62.78
74.41
76.77
96.49
Caldwell
31.49
34.71
37.31
40.09
46.52
Hays
93.62
109.48
128.14
144.51
184.50
Travis
788.50
851.59
931.17
985.47
1095.30
Williamson
236.61
289.85
328.62
358.66
428.30
TOTAL
1205.90
1348.41
1499.66
1605.50
1851.11
Population
(
thousands)

Table
5.1­
1
Population
Growth
(
CAPCO
Regional
Forecast
2000
to
2030,
REMI,
2003)

As
the
population
increases,
so
will
the
economic
activity
in
the
region.
Though
the
economy
of
the
region
has
slowed
in
recent
years,
the
overall
trend
from
1999
through
2012
continues
to
show
an
increase.

County
1999
2002
2005
2007
2012
Bastrop
0.93
0.96
1.02
1.06
1.12
Caldwell
0.43
0.41
0.43
0.44
0.46
Hays
3.86
3.61
3.89
4.11
4.61
Travis
68.90
65.13
64.39
66.08
68.53
Williamson
9.10
9.09
9.36
9.68
10.11
TOTAL
83.23
79.21
79.10
81.36
84.83
Employment
as
Manufacturing
Total
(
thousands)

Table
5.1­
2
Total
manufacturing
employment
forecast
(
CAPCO
Regional
Forecast,
REMI,
2003)

With
this
increase
in
population
and
economic
growth
in
the
region,
emissions
from
area
sources
are
expected
to
increase
only
14.2%
from
1999
to
2012.
Austin­
Round
Rock
MSA
Attainment
Maintenance
Analysis
15
Area
Sources
Emission
Trend
1999
2007
2012
BASTROP
NOx
0.60
0.76
0.82
VOC
4.52
5.53
6.16
CALDWELL
NOx
0.54
0.67
0.68
VOC
15.29
15.75
17.17
HAYS
NOx
0.58
0.79
0.85
VOC
5.47
7.67
8.21
TRAVIS
NOx
3.21
4.05
4.28
VOC
50.60
57.04
57.58
WILLIAMSON
NOx
3.00
3.84
3.86
VOC
14.68
20.44
21.25
MSA
NOx
7.93
10.12
10.50
VOC
90.56
106.42
110.37
Table
5.1­
3
Area
Source
Emission
Trends
Break
Down
(
Tons
per
Day),
CAPCO
For
more
details,
please
see
the
report,
Emissions
Inventory
Comparison
and
Trend
Analysis
for
the
Austin­
Round
Rock
MSA:
1999,
2002,
2005,
2007,
&
2012,
in
the
Appendices
to
Chapter
6.
Austin­
Round
Rock
MSA
Attainment
Maintenance
Analysis
16
5.2
Non­
Road
Mobile
Sources
Projected
MSA
non­
road
mobile
emissions
for
2002,
2005,
2007
and
2012
were
developed
using
the
EPA's
NONROAD
model
and
accounted
for
several
federal
programs
including:
Standards
for
Compression­
ignition
Vehicles
and
Equipment,

Standards
for
Spark­
ignition
Off­
road
Vehicles
and
Equipment,
Tier
III
Heavy­
duty
Diesel
Equipment,
Locomotive
Standards,
Recreational
Marine
Standards,
and
Lawn
and
Garden
Equipment.
The
non­
road
mobile
emissions
totals
were
calculated
by
using
the
following
equation:

Base
Case
Year
Non
Road
Model
Emissions
=
Base
Case
Emission
Inventory
Projection
Year
Non
Road
Model
Emissions
Projection
Year
Emission
Inventory
1999
2002
2005
2007
2012
Bastrop
0.92
0.54
0.54
0.99
0.57
Caldwell
0.61
0.40
0.44
0.68
0.89
Hays
1.53
1.28
1.23
1.77
1.30
Travis
15.59
16.53
14.15
12.70
13.93
Williamson
3.84
3.93
3.28
3.73
3.39
Total
22.49
22.68
19.63
19.87
20.07
Non­
Road
VOC
Emissions
Table
5.2­
1
Non­
Road
Mobile
Source
NOx
Emissions
(
tons
per
day),
Austin­
Round
Rock
MSA
1999
2002
2005
2007
2012
Bastrop
1.72
1.39
1.68
1.66
1.81
Caldwell
1.42
1.17
1.43
1.39
2.41
Hays
1.88
1.68
1.89
1.84
1.94
Travis
16.69
16.24
17.98
16.21
16.38
Williamson
6.73
6.45
6.90
6.36
7.11
Total
28.44
26.93
29.88
27.46
29.65
Non­
Road
NOx
Emissions
Table
5.2­
2
Non­
Road
Mobile
Source
CO
Emissions
(
tons
per
day),
Austin­
Round
Rock
MSA
The
following
figures
graphically
depict
the
Non­
road
mobile
emission
trend.
Austin­
Round
Rock
MSA
Attainment
Maintenance
Analysis
17
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
1999
2002
2005
2007
2012
Year
NOx
Emissions
(
tpd)

Bastrop
Caldwell
Hays
Travis
Williamson
Total
Figure
5.2­
1
Non­
Road
Mobile
NOx
Emissions,
Austin­
Round
Rock
MSA
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
1999
2002
2005
2007
2012
Year
VOC
Emissions
(
tpd)

Bastrop
Caldwell
Hays
Travis
Williamson
Total
Figure
5.2­
2
Non­
Road
Mobile
VOC
Emissions,
Austin­
Round
Rock
MSA
Emissions
were
grown
using
the
Nonroad
model
(
version
2002a).
Population,
and
the
distribution
of
population
in
urban
and
rural
areas,
has
considerable
affect
this
category.

However,
the
population
growth
that
is
expected
is
offset
by
new
technology
and
upcoming
emission
regulation
on
non­
road
mobile
engines
due
to
state
and
federal
Austin­
Round
Rock
MSA
Attainment
Maintenance
Analysis
18
regulations.
This
accounts
for
the
near
straight
line
effect
seen
in
the
NOx
trend
in
Figure
5.2­
1.
However,
for
VOC
the
continued
population
increases
are
shown
from
2007
to
2012
(
Figure
5.2­
2).

5.3
On­
Road
Mobile
Sources
VMT
Screen:
Because
on­
road
mobile
emissions
account
for
a
significant
amount
of
the
region's
ozone
forming
emissions,
the
region
has
focused
much
of
its
attention
on
growth
in
that
area.
It
was,
therefore,
reasonable
to
perform
a
test
to
determine
if
the
future
planned
transportation
network(
s)
will
contribute
increasing
or
decreasing
amounts
of
NOx
and
VOC.
One
test
that
uses
readily
available
data
is
a
review
of
the
relative
change
in
VMT,
also
referred
to
as
a
VMT
"
screen".
Staff
has
chosen
to
use
the
VMT
screen
that
EPA
originally
developed
for
its
proposed
transitional
ozone
classification.

The
VMT
screen
tests
if
any
expected
increase
in
VMT
in
a
future
year
will
be
offset
by
technology
and
control
measures.
That
is,
that
the
expected
associated
emissions
in
a
future
year
will
not
exceed
the
associated
emissions
of
the
base
year.

The
current
CAMPO
long­
range
transportation
plan
is
based
on
VMT
for
the
years
1997,

2007,
2015
and
2025.
TxDOT
supplied
the1999
VMT.
The
"
VMT
Screen"
for
years
2007
and
2015
of
the
plan,
Mobility
2025,
gave
the
following
results.

NOx
VOC
Three­
County
Three­
County
CAMPO
LRP
CAMPO
LRP
Year
No
Controls
With
I&
M
No
Controls
With
I&
M
1999
29,002,000
29,002,000
2007
19,815,722
18,801,663
20,413,830
17,869,330
2015
9,162,901
7,316,813
15,036,818
11,943,306
Table
5.3­
1
Emission
Reductions
in
VMT
from
1999
to
2015,
with
and
without
I/
M
VMT
in
the
three­
county
region
is
expected
to
increase
40%
from
1999
to
2007
and
90%

from
2007
to
2015.
The
associated
NOx
will
decrease
by
so
much
during
those
years
that
it
will
be
as
though
there
were
a
31.7%
decrease
in
VMT
from
1999
to
2007
and
a
68.4%
decrease
from
1999
to
2015.
Additional,
though
less
substantial,
decreases
will
be
Austin­
Round
Rock
MSA
Attainment
Maintenance
Analysis
19
realized
from
the
region's
implementation
of
an
I/
M
program
in
Travis,
Williamson
and
Hays
Counties
in
2005
(
35.2%
and
74.8%).
Also,
VOC
will
be
reduced
by
29.6%
from
1999
until
2007
and
48.2%
from
1999
to
2015.
Reductions
of
VOC
will
also
be
greater
with
the
I/
M
program
(
38.4%
and
58.8%).
The
expected
increases
in
population
and
the
planned
expansion
of
the
roadway
system
will
contribute
to
an
increase
in
VMT,
but
will
not
cause
on­
road
emissions
to
exceed
1999
levels.

Because
Bastrop
and
Caldwell
Counties
are
outside
the
CAMPO
boundaries,
and
because
they
will
not
participate
in
the
I/
M
program,
a
separate
VMT
screen
was
conducted
for
the
aggregate
5­
county
region.
The
results
are
similar
to
those
realized
for
the
CAMPO
area.

NOx
VOC
Five­
County
MSA
Five­
County
MSA
TTI
VMT
TTI
VMT
Year
No
Control
Measures
No
Control
Measures
1999
32,506,000
32,506,000
2007
27,677,756
22,332,084
2015
9,796,164
15,907,780
Table
5.3­
2
Emission
Reductions
in
VMT
from
1999
to
2015
VMT
is
expected
to
increase
in
the
five­
county
region
by
36%
from
1999
to
2007
and
79.3%
from
1999
to
2015.
Without
I/
M
in
the
five­
county
region,
NOx
from
VMT
is
expected
to
decline
by
33.3%
from
1999
to
2007
and
69.9%
from
1999
to
2015.
The
VOC
will
also
decline
(
31.3%
and
51.1%).
Again,
the
expected
increases
in
population
and
the
planned
roadway
system
that
will
contribute
to
an
increase
in
VMT
will
not
contribute
to
emissions
exceeding
the
amount
of
on­
road
emissions
seen
in
1999.

One
conclusion
from
this
analysis
is
that
the
currently
planned
roadway
system
will
not
exacerbate
the
production
of
ozone
in
the
MSA
through
2015.
The
details
of
all
calculations
are
included
in
the
Appendices
to
Chapter
6.
Austin­
Round
Rock
MSA
Attainment
Maintenance
Analysis
20
Emissions
Comparisons:
Another
way
to
evaluate
VMT
and
associated
emissions
is
to
compare
the
estimated
emissions
for
future
years
to
the
base
year
emissions.
Multiplying
the
emission
factor
by
the
VMT
results
in
an
estimate
of
the
daily
emissions
associated
with
on­
road
travel.
This
evaluation
shows
a
decrease
in
both
NOx
and
VOC
emissions,

despite
an
increase
in
VMT.

TTI,
Five­
County,
No
Controls
NOx
VOC
Year
VMT
(
miles)
EF
(
g/
mi)
VMT
X
EF
(
tons)
Year
VMT
(
miles)
EF
(
g/
mi)
VMT
X
EF
(
tons)
1999
32,506,000
2.433
87
1999
32,506,000
1.425
51
2007
44,508,000
1.185
58
2007
44,508,000
0.715
35
2015
58,274,000
0.409
26
2015
58,274,000
0.389
25
Table
5.3­
3
Emission
Reductions
from
1999
to
2015
Both
evaluation
techniques,
the
VMT
screen
and
comparison
of
emissions,
show
large
enough
decreases
in
on­
road
emissions
to
more
than
offset
the
anticipated
growth
in
VMT
through
2015.
These
decreases
in
emissions
will
be
even
greater
once
the
I/
M
program
is
implemented.

The
following
tables
are
the
VMT
screens.
Each
title
includes
the
targeted
precursor,
the
area
covered,
source
of
VMT,
and
any
additional
local
control
measures
included
in
the
emissions
factor.
For
example,
"
NOx,
5­
county,
TTI
VMT,
No
controls"
means
that
the
emission
factors
are
for
NOx,
the
entire
5­
county
MSA
is
covered,
the
VMT
is
from
the
TTI
report
on
the
September
episode,
and
there
were
no
additional
local
control
measures
included
in
the
MOBILE6
input
files.
Austin­
Round
Rock
MSA
Attainment
Maintenance
Analysis
21
NOx,
3­
County,
TxDOT
&
CAMPO
VMT,
No
Controls
NOx
1999
VMT
=
29,002,000
Emission
Factors
I
s
the
1999
VMT
greater
than
or
equal
to
the
VMT
for
the
future
year?
Yes/
No
1999
2.4490
2007
VMT1999
 
EF2007/
EF1999
×
VMT
2007
YES
19,815,722.34
2007
1.1920
2015
0.4070
2015
VMT1999
 
EF2015/
EF1999
×
VMT
2015
YES
9,162,901.18
2025
Plan
VMT
1999
29,002,000
*
HPMS
1999
VMT
2007
40,712,000
2015
55,135,000
Austin­
Round
Rock
MSA
Attainment
Maintenance
Analysis
22
VOC,
3­
County,
TxDOT
&
CAMPO
VMT,
No
Controls
VOC
1999
VMT
=
29,002,000
Emission
Factors
I
s
the
1999
VMT
greater
than
or
equal
to
the
VMT
for
the
future
year?
Yes/
No
1999
1.4080
2007
VMT1999
 
EF2007/
EF1999
×
VMT
2007
YES
20,413,829.55
2007
0.7060
2015
0.3840
2015
VMT1999
 
EF2015/
EF1999
×
VMT
2015
YES
15,036,818.18
2025
Plan
VMT
1999
29,002,000
*
HPMS
1999
VMT
2007
40,712,000
2015
55,135,000
Austin­
Round
Rock
MSA
Attainment
Maintenance
Analysis
23
NOx,
3­
County,
TxDOT
&
CAMPO
VMT,
I&
M
NOx
1999
VMT
=
29,002,000
Emission
Factors
I
s
the
1999
VMT
greater
than
or
equal
to
the
VMT
for
the
future
year?
Yes/
No
1999
2.4490
2007
VMT1999
 
EF2007/
EF1999
×
VMT
2007
YES
18,801,662.72
2007
1.1310
2015
0.3250
2015
VMT1999
 
EF2015/
EF1999
×
VMT
2015
YES
7,316,812.98
2025
Plan
VMT
1999
29,002,000
*
HPMS
1999
VMT
2007
40,712,000
2015
55,135,000
Austin­
Round
Rock
MSA
Attainment
Maintenance
Analysis
24
VOC,
3­
County,
TxDOT
&
CAMPO
VMT,
I&
M
VOC
1999
VMT
=
29,002,000
Emission
Factors
I
s
the
1999
VMT
greater
than
or
equal
to
the
VMT
for
the
future
year?
Yes/
No
1999
1.4080
2007
VMT1999
 
EF2007/
EF1999
×
VMT
2007
YES
17,869,329.55
2007
0.6180
2015
0.3050
2015
VMT1999
 
EF2015/
EF1999
×
VMT
2015
YES
11,943,306.11
2025
Plan
VMT
1999
29,002,000
*
HPMS
1999
VMT
2007
40,712,000
2015
55,135,000
Austin­
Round
Rock
MSA
Attainment
Maintenance
Analysis
25
NOx,
5­
county,
TTI
VMT,
No
controls
NOx
VMT
Screen
1999
VMT
=
32,506,000
Emission
Factors
I
s
the
1999
VMT
greater
than
or
equal
to
the
VMT
for
the
future
year?
Yes/
No
1999
2.4330
2007
VMT1999
 
EF2007/
EF1999
×
VMT
2007
YES
21,677,755.86
2007
1.1850
2015
0.4090
2015
VMT1999
 
EF2015/
EF1999
×
VMT
2015
YES
9,796,163.58
TTI
VMT
1999
32,506,000
*
TTI
VMT
Sept.
20,
1999
episode
2007
44,508,000
2015
58,274,000
Austin­
Round
Rock
MSA
Attainment
Maintenance
Analysis
26
VOC,
5­
County,
TTI
VMT,
No
Controls
VOC
1999
VMT
=
32,506,000
Emission
Factors
I
s
the
1999
VMT
greater
than
or
equal
to
the
VMT
for
the
future
year?
Yes/
No
1999
1.4250
2007
VMT1999
 
EF2007/
EF1999
×
VMT
2007
YES
22,332,084.21
2007
0.7150
2015
0.3890
2015
VMT1999
 
EF2015/
EF1999
×
VMT
2015
YES
15,907,779.65
TTI
VMT
1999
32,506,000
*
TTI
VMT
Sept.
20,
1999
episode
2007
44,508,000
2015
58,274,000
Austin­
Round
Rock
MSA
Attainment
Maintenance
Analysis
27
5.4
Point
Sources
The
Texas
Commission
on
Environmental
Quality
provided
emission
data
for
point
sources
in
the
CAPCO
region
for
the
1999
EI.
In
the
1999
EI,
the
point
source
was
subcategorized
into
major
point
source
and
minor
point
source.
Point
source
inventory
was
developed
for
1999
and
2007
for
the
EAC
Clean
Air
Plan.
A
uniform
change
for
2002
and
2005
was
assumed
and
2012
is
expected
to
stay
unchanged
based
on
feedback
from
power
plant
stakeholders.

Austin
Energy
and
Lower
Colorado
River
Authority
(
LCRA)
provided
emissions
for
the
EGUs
they
operate
in
the
area.
The
NEGU
(
Non­
Electric
Generating
Units)
emission
totals
for
the
five
counties
were
provided
by
TCEQ.
Table
5.4­
1
provides
projected
total
emissions
for
the
areas
power
plants
(
EGUs)
for
1999
and
2007.

EGU
Point
Source
Emissions
(
tpd)
in
the
MSA
and
Surrounding
Area
1999
2007
County
Facility
Name
NOx
VOC
NOx
VOC
Bastrop
Sam
Gideon
Electric
Power
Plant
7.10
0.33
3.94
0.11
Bastrop
Lost
Pines
1
Power
Plant
n/
a
n/
a
1.50
0.23
Bastrop
Bastrop
Clean
Energy
Center
n/
a
n/
a
2.21
0.12
Fayette
Fayette
Power
Project
60.82
0.55
28.12
0.78
Hays
Hays
Energy
Facility
n/
a
n/
a
3.70
0.96
Milam
Sandow
Steam
Electric
24.20
0.33
13.19
0.32
Travis
Decker
Lake
Power
Plant
8.15
0.44
3.80
0.12
Travis
Holly
Street
Power
Plant
2.88
0.12
2.98
0.01
Travis
Sand
Hills
n/
a
n/
a
1.03
0.20
Travis
Hal
C
Weaver
Power
Plant
1.99
0.03
1.86
0.05
Total
105.14
1.80
62.32
2.91
Total
MSA
20.12
0.92
21.01
1.81
Table
5.4­
1
Point
Source
Emissions
from
EGU,
Austin
 
Round
Rock
MSA
and
Surrounding
Austin
Energy's
proposed
Ten­
Year
Strategic
Plan
includes
an
Energy
(
generation)

Resource
Plan.
Under
this
plan,
the
Holly
Power
Plant
will
be
retired
by
Dec.
31,
2007.

Cost­
effective
energy
efficiency
and
load
shifting
are
established
as
the
first
response
toward
meeting
new
load;
and
cost­
effective
renewable
energy
sources
will
be
increased
Austin­
Round
Rock
MSA
Attainment
Maintenance
Analysis
28
as
practical
to
reduce
generation
dependency
on
fossil
fuels,
such
as
natural
gas.
As
part
of
their
resource
strategy,
Austin
Energy
has
developed
an
objective
to
make
a
strong
commitment
to
renewable
energy.
The
two
measures
are
to
achieve
a
renewable
portfolio
standard
of
20%
and
an
energy
efficiency
target
of
15%
by
2020.

1999&
2007
NEGU
Major
Point
Source
Emissions
(
tpd)
in
the
MSA
and
Surrounding
Area
1999
2007
County
Facility
Name
NOx
VOC
NOx
VOC
Caldwell
Durol
Western
Manufacturing,
Inc.
0.00
0.01
0.00
0.00
Caldwell
Luling
Gas
Plant
0.89
0.26
0.29
0.04
Caldwell
Maxwell
Facility
0.00
0.15
0.00
0.06
Caldwell
Prairie
Lea
Compressor
Station
2.66
0.04
2.23
0.03
Caldwell
Teppco
Crude
Oil
LLC,
Luling
Station
0.00
0.01
n/
a
n/
a
Comal
APG
Lime
Corp
1.15
0.00
1.15
0.00
Comal
Sunbelt
Cemebt
of
Texas
LP
7.61
0.12
3.79
0.13
Comal
TXI
Operations
LP
3.34
0.14
3.43
0.15
Hays
Parkview
Metal
Products,
Inc.
0.00
0.10
0.00
0.03
Hays
Southern
Post
Co.
Commercial
Metal
0.00
0.06
0.00
0.01
Hays
Southwest
Solvents
and
Chemicals
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Hays
Texas
LeHigh
Cement
7.20
0.18
5.24
0.55
Milam
Aluminum
Company
of
America
54.26
4.25
4.64
0.38
Travis
RIN3M
Austin
Center
0.15
0.03
0.15
0.03
Travis
Advanced
Micro
Devices,
Inc.
0.00
0.00
0.23
0.17
Travis
Austin
White
Lime
Co.
0.89
0.00
0.94
0.02
Travis
IBM
Corporation
0.09
0.04
0.01
0.04
Travis
Lithoprint
Co.,
Inc.
0.00
0.05
n/
a
n/
a
Travis
Motorola­
Ed
Bluestein
0.46
0.17
0.01
0.04
Travis
Motorola
Integrated
Circuit
Division
0.09
0.08
0.02
0.02
Travis
Multilayer
TEK,
L.
P.
0.00
0.18
0.01
0.21
Travis
Raytheon
Systems,
Co.
0.02
0.02
0.01
0.00
Travis
Twomey
Welch
Aerocorp,
Inc.
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Williamson
Aquatic
Industries,
Inc.
0.00
0.11
0.00
0.04
Total
78.82
6.02
22.14
1.95
Total
MSA
12.46
1.50
9.13
1.28
Table
5.4­
2
Point
Source
Emissions
from
major
NEGU
Table
5.4­
2
provides
projected
NEGU
emission
totals
for
1999
and
2007.
The
largest
emitter
from
the
NEGU
Major
Point
Source
category
is
the
Aluminum
Company
of
Austin­
Round
Rock
MSA
Attainment
Maintenance
Analysis
29
America
(
ALCOA).
They
have
committed
to
reducing
their
emissions
by
90%
by
2007,

which
will
have
a
substantial
impact
on
the
reduction
for
the
entire
category.

The
total
MSA
point
source
VOC
emission
amounts
increase
slightly
from
1999
to
2012
due
to
the
new
permitted
EGUs.
This
occurred
due
to
the
development
of
several
new
point
source
related
projects
in
the
region.
The
projected
reduction
in
NOx
emission
levels
is
due
to
the
governmental
regulations
aimed
at
reducing
point
source
related
emission
of
NOx.
Figures
5.4­
1
and
­
2
graphically
illustrates
the
trend
for
major
point
source
emissions
for
all
counties
in
the
Austin­
Round
Rock
MSA.

0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
1999
2002
2005
2007
2012
Year
NOx
(
tpd)
Bastrop
Caldwell
Hays
Travis
Williamson
Total
Figure
5.4­
1
Point
Source
NOx
Emissions
Trend,
Austin­
Round
Rock
MSA
Austin­
Round
Rock
MSA
Attainment
Maintenance
Analysis
30
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
1999
2002
2005
2007
2012
Year
VOC
(
tpd)
Bastrop
Caldwell
Hays
Travis
Williamson
Total
Figure
5.4­
2
Point
Source
VOC
Emissions
Trend,
Austin­
Round
Rock
MSA
Power
 
Austin
Energy
and
Renewable
Sources
Austin
Energy's
proposed
Ten­
Year
Strategic
Plan
is
the
high­
level
blueprint
for
their
priorities
for
the
next
decade.
The
plan
emphasizes
reliability,
customer
service,
cost
effectiveness,
positioning
for
technology,
and
greater
generation
diversity.

Included
within
the
larger
plan
is
an
Energy
(
generation)
Resource
Plan.
Under
the
energy
resource
plan,
the
Holly
Power
Plant
will
be
retired
by
Dec.
31,
2007;
cost
­

effective
energy
efficiency
and
load
shifting
are
established
as
the
first
response
toward
meeting
new
load;
and
cost­
effective
renewable
energy
sources
will
be
increased
as
practical
to
reduce
generation
dependency
on
fossil
fuels,
such
as
natural
gas.
The
closing
of
the
Holly
Power
Plant
will
reduce
NOx
emissions
by
2.4
TPD
in
Travis
County.
As
part
of
their
resource
strategy,
Austin
Energy
has
developed
an
objective
to
make
a
strong
commitment
to
renewable
energy.
The
two
measures
are
to
achieve
a
renewable
portfolio
standard
of
20%
and
an
energy
efficiency
target
of
15%
by
2020.
Austin­
Round
Rock
MSA
Attainment
Maintenance
Analysis
31
A
more
detailed
description
of
these
rules
can
be
also
found
in
the
document
"
Local
Emission
Reduction
Strategies"
and
Chapter
5
of
the
CAAP.
Austin­
Round
Rock
MSA
Attainment
Maintenance
Analysis
32
6
The
Continuing
Planning
Process
CAPCO
and
CAMPO
staff
will
analyze
air
quality
and
related
data
and
perform
necessary
modeling
updates
annually.
In
addition
to
the
data
sources
used
for
the
above
analyses,
staff
may
add
information
from
The
Central
Texas
Sustainability
Indicators
Project
(
CTSIP).
The
CTSIP
is
a
nonprofit
organization
that
tracks
40
key
indicators
(
e.
g.,
water
pollution,
air
quality,
density
of
new
development)
that
show
the
economic,

environmental
and
social
health
of
our
MSA.
The
results
of
all
these
analyses
will
be
reported
in
the
June
semi­
annual
reports
beginning
in
June
2005.

Using
similar
methods
as
for
the
above
analysis,
staff
will
evaluate:

1.
future
transportation
patterns;

2.
all
relevant
actual
new
point
sources;
and
3.
impacts
from
potential
new
source
growth.

Future
Transportation
Patterns:
As
part
of
the
Mobility
2030
plan
development
process
CAMPO
staff
will
perform
the
VMT
screen
for
years
2007
and
2017.
The
screen
will
test
to
be
sure
that
any
expected
increase
in
VMT
over
the
planning
horizons
will
be
offset
by
technology
and
control
measures,
that
is,
that
the
expected
associated
emissions
will
not
exceed
the
associated
emissions
of
the
base
year
(
1999).

As
part
of
this
analysis,
the
emission
factors
will
be
reviewed
and
updated
as
necessary.

Review
of
the
emission
factors
includes
checking
and
updating
the
fleet
mix.

This
test
will
also
be
performed
prior
to
adoption
of
any
CAMPO
long­
range
transportation
plan
update
or
amendment
that
significantly
increases
VMT.

New
Point
Sources
and
Potential
New
Point
Sources:
In
addition
to
the
VMT
screen
and
review
of
area
sources,
staff
will
include
a
list
and
impact
analysis
of
the
relevant
new
and
potential
new
point
sources.
Staff
will
obtain
data
on
these
relevant
new
and
potential
new
point
sources
from
TCEQ.
Austin­
Round
Rock
MSA
Attainment
Maintenance
Analysis
33
The
annual
analysis
will
determine
the
adequacy
of
the
selected
control
measures.
After
review
by
the
appropriate
elected
officials,
these
measures
will
be
adjusted
if
necessary.