Document ID: EPA-HQ-ORD-2014-0581-0001
Agency: epa
Document Type: Notice
Title: Risk Assessment Forum White Paper; Availability: Probabilistic Risk Assessment Methods and Case Studies and Probabilistic Risk Assessment to Inform Decision Making: Frequently Asked Questions
Posted Date: 2014-08-12T04:00Z

[Federal Register Volume 79, Number 155 (Tuesday, August 12, 2014)]
[Notices]
[Page 47105]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Printing Office [www.gpo.gov]
[FR Doc No: 2014-19065]

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ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY

[EPA-HQ-ORD-2014-0581; FRL-9915-07-ORD]

Notice of Availability of the Risk Assessment Forum White Paper: 
Probabilistic Risk Assessment Methods and Case Studies and 
Probabilistic Risk Assessment To Inform Decision Making: Frequently 
Asked Questions

AGENCY: Environmental Protection Agency.

ACTION: Notice of Availability.

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SUMMARY: This notice announces the availability of ``Risk Assessment 
Forum White Paper: Probabilistic Risk Assessment Methods and Case 
Studies'' and its companion document ``Probabilistic Risk Assessment to 
Inform Decision Making: Frequently Asked Questions.'' The drafts were 
released for public comment, and externally peer reviewed by experts 
from academia, industry, environmental groups, and other government 
agencies.

DATES: The document will be available for use by EPA risk assessors and 
other interested parties on August 12, 2014.

ADDRESSES: The Risk Assessment Forum White Paper: Probabilistic Risk 
Assessment Methods and Case Studies and Probabilistic Risk Assessment 
to Inform Decision Making: Frequently Asked Questions are available 
electronically through the EPA Web site at http://epa.gov/raf/prawhitepaper/index.htm.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Rita S. Schoeny, Office of the Science 
Advisor, Mail Code 8105R, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1200 
Pennsylvania Ave. NW., Washington, DC 20460; telephone number (202) 
566-1127; fax number (202) 565-2911; or email: schoeny.rita@epa.gov.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: PRA began playing an increasingly important 
role in Agency risk assessments following the 1997 release of EPA's 
Policy for Use of Probabilistic Analysis in Risk Assessment at the U.S. 
Environmental Protection Agency and publication of the Guiding 
Principles for Monte-Carlo Analysis. PRA was a major focus in an 
associated review of EPA risk assessment practices by the Science 
Advisory Board (SAB) (Letter from M. G. Morgan and R. T. Parkin, 
Science Advisory Board, to S. Johnson, U.S. Environmental Protection 
Agency. February 28, 2007. EPA/SAB-07/003). http://yosemite.epa.gov/
sab/sabproduct.nsf/55E1B2C78C6085EB8525729C00573A3E/$File/sab-07-
003.pdf). Both this white paper and the companion FAQ document address 
recommendations on risk assessment processes described in the U.S. 
National Research Council's (NRC) report Science and Decisions: 
Advancing Risk Assessment. The white paper and FAQ documents were 
released for public comment in September 2009 and underwent external 
peer review in May 2010.
    PRA is a group of techniques that incorporate variability and 
uncertainty into the risk assessment process. PRA provides estimates of 
the range and likelihood of a hazard, exposure, or risk, rather than a 
single point estimate. It can provide a more complete characterization 
of risks, including uncertainties and variability, to protect more 
sensitive or vulnerable populations and lifestages. The information 
obtained from a PRA can be used by decision makers to weigh risks from 
decision alternatives, or to invest in research with the greatest 
impact on risk estimate uncertainty.
    These documents describe how PRA can be applied to enhance the 
scientific foundation for decision making across the Agency. They were 
created in response to recommendation of numerous advisory bodies, 
including the SAB and NRC; these groups recommended that EPA 
incorporate probabilistic analyses into Agency decision-making 
processes. This white paper and accompanying FAQ explain how EPA can 
use probabilistic methods to address data, model, and scenario 
uncertainty and variability by capitalizing on the wide array of tools 
and methods that comprise PRA.
    Both documents address issues such as variability and uncertainty, 
their relevance to decision making, and the PRA goal of providing 
quantitative characterization of the uncertainty and variability in 
estimates of hazard, exposure, or risk. The difference between the 
white paper and the FAQs document is the level of detail provided about 
PRA concepts and practices and the intended audience (e.g., risk 
assessors for the white paper vs. decision makers) for the FAQ 
document.

    Dated: July 31, 2014.
Robert Kavlock,
Interim EPA Science Advisor.
[FR Doc. 2014-19065 Filed 8-11-14; 8:45 am]
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