Document ID: EPA-HQ-OW-2002-0049-0293
Agency: epa
Document Type: Supporting & Related Material
Title: 
Posted Date: 2003-03-19T05:00Z

Record
for
the
Section
316(
b)
Phase
II
Existing
Facilities
Notice
of
Data
Availability
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
A
B
C
D
E
Date
Modified:
2/
13/
03
By:
Abt
Associates
Inc.

Data
Sources:
IPM
output
EPA
Base
Case
2000
Purpose:
National
summary
results
for
EPA
Base
Case
2000
1d
­
Base
case
with
EPA
electricity
demand
growth
assumptions
2d
­
Base
case
with
AEO
electricity
demand
growth
assumptions
March
10,
2003
Page
1
of
8
dwcgi­
23902­
1049981700­
252830000.
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­
File
Info
Record
for
the
Section
316(
b)
Phase
II
Existing
Facilities
Notice
of
Data
Availability
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
A
B
C
D
E
F
EPA
ipm2000s100d
 
EPA
Base
Case
2000
Region:
System
Page:
1.
1
Regional
Summary
Report
NOTES:

1.
Year
2026
is
the
End­
Year
and
should
not
be
used
for
analysis.

2005
2010
2015
2020
2026
­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­

1.
Reserve
Margin
Capacity
[
MW]
831903
868695
926098
976254
1040298
Plus
Firm
Purchases
[
MW]
0
0
0
0
0
Plus
Transmission
In
[
MW]
25817
27338
26113
24911
23008
­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­

Total
Reserve
Margin
Capacity
[
MW]
857720
896033
952211
1001165
1063306
­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­

2.
Peak
Load
[
MW]
719442
761387
812269
856657
913351
Less
DSM
[
MW]
0
0
0
0
0
Plus
Firm
Sales
[
MW]
0
0
0
0
0
Plus
Transmission
Out
[
MW]
26344
27896
26646
25420
23478
­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­

Net
Demand
[
MW]
745786
789283
838915
882077
936829
3.
Reserve
Margin
[%]
15.01
13.52
13.51
13.5
13.5
­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­

4.
Generation
[
GWh]
3949543
4146158
4391879
4599318
4860517
Inter­
Region
Transmission
[
GWh]
­
9134
­
8865
­
8181
­
8160
­
7717
Pumping
&
Storage
Losses
[
GWh]
13911
15104
15049
14937
14423
Plus
Purchases
[
GWh]
0
0
0
0
0
Less
Sales
[
GWh]
0
0
0
0
0
­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­

5.
Total
Supply
for
Demand
[
GWh]
3926498
4122190
4368648
4576221
4838377
­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­

6.
Projected
Demand
[
GWh]
3926498
4122190
4368648
4576221
4838377
Energy
Not
Served
[
GWh]
0
0
0
0
0
Less
DSM
[
GWh]
0
0
0
0
0
­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­

Net
Demand
[
GWh]
3926498
4122190
4368648
4576221
4838377
7.
Dumped
Energy
[
GWh]
0
0
0
0
0
­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­

8.
Total
Supply
for
Demand
[
GWh]
3926498
4122190
4368648
4576221
4838377
Less
T&
D
Losses
[
GWh]
301465
316490
335412
351349
371477
­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­

9.
Total
Sales
[
GWh]
3625033
3805700
4033236
4224872
4466900
Capacity
Avoided
Costs
[
US$/
kW/
a]
2005
2010
2015
2020
2026
­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­

58
34
42
44
46
March
10,
2003
Page
2
of
8
dwcgi­
23902­
1049981700­
252830000.
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Page
1
Record
for
the
Section
316(
b)
Phase
II
Existing
Facilities
Notice
of
Data
Availability
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
A
BC
D
E
F
G
10.
Capacity
by
Plant
Type
[
MW]
2005
2010
2015
2020
2026
­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­

Scrubbed
Coal_
NOx
1
4942
4942
4942
4942
4942
Scrubbed
Coal
2
51946
50393
50393
50249
49282
Unscrubbed
Coal_
NOx
3
9201
9201
9201
8595
8365
Unscrubbed
Coal
4
139419
130486
118473
108574
101490
Oil/
Gas
Steam
5
118936
116386
116386
116386
116386
Oil/
Gas
Steam_
Nox
6
5024
5024
4463
4374
4374
Nuclear
7
77236
61238
31297
10725
1935
Hydro
8
89788
89788
89788
89788
89788
Comb.
Cycle
Gas
9
79307
101493
128110
152806
186832
IGCC
10
612
612
612
612
612
Turbine
11
96495
117492
151378
180896
213522
Biomass
12
1108
1108
1108
1108
1108
Geothermal
13
2725
2725
2725
2725
2725
Landfill
Gas
14
91
91
91
91
91
Wind
15
1691
1691
1691
1691
1691
Fuel
Cell
16
0
0
0
0
0
Solar
17
325
325
325
325
325
Non
Fossil_
Other
18
2112
2112
2112
2112
2112
Fossil_
Other
19
45
45
45
45
45
Pump
Storage
20
22554
22554
22554
22554
22554
Int.
Imports
21
11000
11000
11000
11000
11000
Cgn_
Coal
22
4062
3998
3998
3994
3608
Cgn_
Gas
23
22540
22540
22540
22540
22540
Cgn_
Oil
24
1069
1069
1069
1069
1069
Cgn_
Other
25
1063
1063
1063
1063
1063
NonCG
IPP_
Coal
26
0
0
0
0
0
NonCG
IPP_
Gas
27
0
0
0
0
0
NonCG
IPP_
Other
28
0
0
0
0
0
Blr_
Coal
29
0
0
0
0
0
Blr_
Gas
30
0
0
0
0
0
Blr_
Oil
31
0
0
0
0
0
Blr_
Other
32
0
0
0
0
0
SteamOnly
Cogen
33
0
0
0
0
0
Rep.
Coal­
CC
34
0
0
0
0
0
Rep.
O/
G­
CC
35
12886
14171
15293
15472
15472
Rep.
Coal­
IGCC
36
0
0
0
0
0
Ret.
Scrubber
37
3532
5412
8216
8216
7672
Ret.
ExistSCR
&
Scrub
38
1900
1900
1900
2494
2718
Ret.
ExistSNCR
&
Scrub
39
0
0
0
0
0
Ret.
SCR
40
49517
54291
53303
58852
60741
Ret.
ExistScrub
&
SCR
41
35668
36697
36697
36697
36697
Ret.
SNCR
42
2974
5039
10858
15211
20794
Ret.
ExistScrub
&
SNCR
43
1191
1716
1716
1860
2827
Ret.
SCR+
Scrb
44
957
1189
5179
5179
5179
Ret.
SNCR+
Scrub
45
0
0
238
238
781
Ret.
Gas
Reburn
46
0
0
0
0
0
Ret.
ExistScrub+
GasR
47
0
0
0
0
0
Ret.
GasReburn+
Scrub
48
0
0
0
0
0
Ret.
ACI
49
0
0
0
0
0
Ret.
ExistScrub&
ACI
50
0
0
0
0
0
Ret.
ExistSCR&
ACI
51
0
0
0
0
0
Ret.
ExistSNCR&
ACI
52
0
0
0
0
0
Ret.
ACI
&
SCR
53
0
0
0
0
0
Ret.
ExistScrub&
ACI&
SCR
54
0
0
0
0
0
Ret.
ACI
&
SNCR
55
0
0
0
0
0
Ret.
ExistScrub&
ACI&
SNCR
56
0
0
0
0
0
Ret.
ACI
&
Srub
57
0
0
0
0
0
Ret.
ExistSCR&
ACI&
Scrub
58
0
0
0
0
0
Ret.
ExistSNCR&
ACI&
Scrub
59
0
0
0
0
0
March
10,
2003
Page
3
of
8
dwcgi­
23902­
1049981700­
252830000.
xls
­
Table
10
Record
for
the
Section
316(
b)
Phase
II
Existing
Facilities
Notice
of
Data
Availability
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
A
BC
D
E
F
G
Ret.
ExistSNCR&
ExistScrub&
ACI
60
0
0
0
0
0
Ret.
ExistSCR&
ExistScrub&
ACI
61
0
0
0
0
0
Ret.
ExistNOx&
ExistScrub&
ACI
62
0
0
0
0
0
Ret.
SCR
&
Scrub
&
ACI
63
0
0
0
0
0
Ret.
SNCR
&
Scrub
&
ACI
64
0
0
0
0
0
Ret.
O/
G
SCR
65
0
506
506
506
506
Ret.
O/
G
SNCR
66
1225
2303
2303
2303
2303
Ret.
Nuclear
(
age
30+
10
yrs)
67
9278
16550
26102
33556
10608
Ret.
Nuclear
(
age
40+
20
yrs)
68
0
2062
18940
27924
57058
Ret.
Biomass
Cofiring
69
0
0
0
0
0
CT
Early
Retirement
70
0
0
0
0
0
CC
Early
Retirement
71
0
0
0
0
0
O/
G
Early
Retirement
72
1234
1557
1557
1557
1557
Coal
Early
Retirement
73
0
0
0
0
0
Nuke
Early
Retirement
74
2248
4776
1140
1140
0
­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­

Total
865901
905545
959312
1009469
1072373
March
10,
2003
Page
4
of
8
dwcgi­
23902­
1049981700­
252830000.
xls
­
Table
10
Record
for
the
Section
316(
b)
Phase
II
Existing
Facilities
Notice
of
Data
Availability
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
11.
Capacity
Additions
and
Changes
by
Plant
Type
[
MW]
2005
2010
2015
2020
2026
Scrubbed
Coal_
NOx
1
0
0
0
0
0
Scrubbed
Coal
2
0
0
0
0
0
Unscrubbed
Coal_
NO
3
0
0
0
0
0
Unscrubbed
Coal
4
0
0
0
0
0
Oil/
Gas
Steam
5
0
0
0
0
0
Oil/
Gas
Steam_
Nox
6
0
0
0
0
0
Nuclear
7
0
0
0
0
0
Hydro
8
0
0
0
0
0
Comb.
Cycle
Gas
9
20493
22186
26618
24695
34027
IGCC
10
0
0
0
0
0
Turbine
11
22761
20997
33886
29518
32636
Biomass
12
0
0
0
0
0
Geothermal
13
0
0
0
0
0
Landfill
Gas
14
0
0
0
0
0
Wind
15
0
0
0
0
0
Fuel
Cell
16
0
0
0
0
0
Solar
17
0
0
0
0
0
Non
Fossil_
Other
18
0
0
0
0
0
Fossil_
Other
19
0
0
0
0
0
Pump
Storage
20
0
0
0
0
0
Int.
Imports
21
0
0
0
0
0
Cgn_
Coal
22
0
0
0
0
0
Cgn_
Gas
23
0
0
0
0
0
Cgn_
Oil
24
0
0
0
0
0
Cgn_
Other
25
0
0
0
0
0
NonCG
IPP_
Coal
26
0
0
0
0
0
NonCG
IPP_
Gas
27
0
0
0
0
0
NonCG
IPP_
Other
28
0
0
0
0
0
Blr_
Coal
29
0
0
0
0
0
Blr_
Gas
30
0
0
0
0
0
Blr_
Oil
31
0
0
0
0
0
Blr_
Other
32
0
0
0
0
0
SteamOnly
Cogen
33
0
0
0
0
0
Rep.
Coal­
CC
34
0
0
0
0
0
Rep.
O/
G­
CC
35
12886
1285
1122
179
0
Rep.
Coal­
IGCC
36
0
0
0
0
0
Ret.
Scrubber
37
4489
1880
3815
0
0
Ret.
ExistSCR
&
Scrub
38
1900
0
0
593
225
Ret.
ExistSNCR
&
Scru
39
0
0
0
0
0
Ret.
SCR
40
49517
5012
2297
5549
1888
Ret.
ExistScrub
&
SCR
41
35668
1029
0
0
0
Ret.
SNCR
42
2974
2065
5819
4353
5583
Ret.
ExistScrub
&
SNC
43
1191
525
0
144
967
Ret.
SCR+
Scrb
44
957
233
3990
0
0
Ret.
SNCR+
Scrub
45
0
0
238
0
543
Ret.
Gas
Reburn
46
0
0
0
0
0
Ret.
ExistScrub+
GasR
47
0
0
0
0
0
Ret.
GasReburn+
Scrub
48
0
0
0
0
0
Ret.
ACI
49
0
0
0
0
0
Ret.
ExistScrub&
ACI
50
0
0
0
0
0
Ret.
ExistSCR&
ACI
51
0
0
0
0
0
Ret.
ExistSNCR&
ACI
52
0
0
0
0
0
Ret.
ACI
&
SCR
53
0
0
0
0
0
Ret.
ExistScrub&
ACI&
54
0
0
0
0
0
Ret.
ACI
&
SNCR
55
0
0
0
0
0
Ret.
ExistScrub&
ACI&
56
0
0
0
0
0
Ret.
ACI
&
Srub
57
0
0
0
0
0
Ret.
ExistSCR&
ACI&
S
58
0
0
0
0
0
Ret.
ExistSNCR&
ACI&
59
0
0
0
0
0
March
10,
2003
Page
5
of
8
dwcgi­
23902­
1049981700­
252830000.
xls
­
Table
11
Record
for
the
Section
316(
b)
Phase
II
Existing
Facilities
Notice
of
Data
Availability
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
Ret.
ExistSNCR&
ExistS
60
0
0
0
0
0
Ret.
ExistSCR&
ExistSc
61
0
0
0
0
0
Ret.
ExistNOx&
ExistSc
62
0
0
0
0
0
Ret.
SCR
&
Scrub
&
A
63
0
0
0
0
0
Ret.
SNCR
&
Scrub
&
64
0
0
0
0
0
Ret.
O/
G
SCR
65
0
506
0
0
0
Ret.
O/
G
SNCR
66
1225
1078
0
0
0
Ret.
Nuclear
(
age
30+
1
67
9278
7272
18830
14726
2268
Ret.
Nuclear
(
age
40+
2
68
0
2062
16878
8984
29134
Ret.
Biomass
Cofiring
69
0
0
0
0
0
CT
Early
Retirement
70
0
0
0
0
0
CC
Early
Retirement
71
0
0
0
0
0
O/
G
Early
Retirement
72
1234
324
0
0
0
Coal
Early
Retirement
73
0
0
0
0
0
Nuke
Early
Retiremen
74
2248
2528
0
0
0
­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­

Total
166820
68982
113492
88742
107270
March
10,
2003
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8
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Table
11
Record
for
the
Section
316(
b)
Phase
II
Existing
Facilities
Notice
of
Data
Availability
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
15.
Total
Annual
Production
Cost
[
MMUS$](*)
2005
2010
2015
2020
2026
­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­

Variable
O&
M
7022.3
7288.7
7606.4
7841.8
8134
Fixed
O&
M
21740.3
21354.8
21607.5
21726
22133.6
Fuel
42813
44298.4
46431.1
48427.8
51159.9
Capital
4573.5
7630.5
12758.5
16591.9
21182.3
­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­

Total
76149.2
80572.4
88403.5
94587.5
102609.8
Sales
Revenue
0
0
0
0
0
(*)
Costs
include
only
those
items
that
are
important
for
determining
incremental
cost
of
pollution
control
March
10,
2003
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7
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Table
15
Record
for
the
Section
316(
b)
Phase
II
Existing
Facilities
Notice
of
Data
Availability
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
A
B
C
D
E
F
Fuel
Consumption
by
Fuel
and
Fuel
Type
[
TBtu]

Fuel
2005
2010
2015
2020
2026
Coal
21127.9
21523.9
21844.4
22132.1
22325.1
Oil
24
24
23.2
21.7
21.7
Nuclear
6824.9
6433.9
6197.1
5939.7
5732.3
Hydro
0
0
0
0
0
Gas
6034.6
7436.9
8884
10233
11901
Other
21.5
21.5
23.2
22.9
21.8
None
731.8
731.8
731.8
731.8
731.8
Boimass
93.3
93.4
91.6
89.8
89.8
Total
34857.9
36265.4
37795.3
39171
40823.5
March
10,
2003
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Fuel
Consumption