Document ID: EPA-HQ-OAR-2013-0602-37111
Agency: epa
Document Type: Supporting & Related Material
Title: 
Posted Date: 2015-10-23T04:00Z

Technical Support Document (TSD) for the CAA Section 111(d) Emission Guidelines for Existing Power Plants
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
New Source Complements to Mass Goals Technical Support Document for CPP Final Rule
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
                      U.S Environmental Protection Agency
                          Office of Air and Radiation
                                  August 2015
New Source Complements to Mass Goals under 111(d)
This Technical Support Document (TSD) provides information that supports the EPA's quantification of new source complements in Section VIII.J of the preamble. These new source complements represent the EPA's estimated new source emissions associated with satisfying incremental demand from 2012. States may add these new source complements to the final rule's mass goals in pursuing a mass-based compliance pathway inclusive of both affected EGUs and new fossil fuel-fired sources.  The methodology for quantifying these new source complements is presented in five steps:
   1. Calculate incremental generation needed for each interconnection to satisfy projected load growth from 2012 levels
   2. Subtract generation from under construction facilities included in the final rule
   3. Subtract generation growth from affected EGUs and incremental renewable energy (RE) accounted for in the calculation of mass goals
   4. Apportion remaining incremental generation to states on the basis of each state's 2012 share of the interconnection's affected EGU generation total
   5. Convert state-level incremental generation to state-level incremental emissions by assuming the New Source Performance Standard emission rate for NGCC of 1,030 lbs/MWh
The spreadsheet `New Source Complements' is available in the docket and provides the complete set of calculations for each state.
   1.    Calculate incremental generation needed for each interconnection to satisfy projected load growth from 2012 levels

For this step, the EPA relies on the projected net energy for load values from the Energy Information Administration's (EIA's) 2015 Annual Energy Outlook (AEO2015).  Those values are presented in Table 1 for the baseline year of 2012 and all years, 2022 through 2030.

             Table 1. Net Energy for Load by Interconnection (TWh)
                                     Year
                            Eastern Interconnection
                            Western Interconnection
                             Texas Interconnection
                                     2012
                                         2,881 
                                           730 
                                           333 
                                     2022
                                         3,094 
                                           775 
                                           361 
                                     2023
                                         3,114 
                                           782 
                                           365 
                                     2024
                                         3,137 
                                           789 
                                           369 
                                     2025
                                         3,158 
                                           797 
                                           372 
                                     2026
                                         3,178 
                                           803 
                                           376 
                                     2027
                                         3,196 
                                           810 
                                           380 
                                     2028
                                         3,213 
                                           816 
                                           383 
                                     2029
                                         3,231 
                                           823 
                                           387 
                                     2030
                                         3,245 
                                           829 
                                           391 
The AEO projections are then converted into a percent increase in net energy for load, relative to 2012, for each interconnection and each year.  Conversion to a percent increase enables the EPA to apply the projected demand growth to 2012 historical data.
            Table 2. Increase in Net Energy for Load From 2012 (%)
                                     Year
                            Eastern Interconnection
                            Western Interconnection
                             Texas Interconnection
                                     2022
                                     7.4%
                                     6.2%
                                     8.6%
                                     2023
                                     8.1%
                                     7.1%
                                     9.6%
                                     2024
                                     8.9%
                                     8.2%
                                     10.8%
                                     2025
                                     9.6%
                                     9.2%
                                     11.9%
                                     2026
                                     10.3%
                                     10.1%
                                     13.0%
                                     2027
                                     10.9%
                                     11.0%
                                     14.0%
                                     2028
                                     11.5%
                                     11.9%
                                     15.1%
                                     2029
                                     12.2%
                                     12.8%
                                     16.3%
                                     2030
                                     12.7%
                                     13.6%
                                     17.4%

The historical generation associated with each interconnection is calculated as 2012 historical sales adjusted to account for an average transmission loss factor of 7.51%:
   * 2012 Generation = 2012 Sales x (1+ Transmission Losses)
   * 2012 Eastern Interconnection Generation = 2,626,988 GWh x 1.0751 = 2,824,274 GWh
   * 2012 Western Interconnection Generation = 671,260 GWh x 1.0751 = 721,672 GWh
   * 2012 Texas Interconnection Generation = 365,467 GWh x 1.0751 = 392,914 GWh
For each year, 2022 through 2030, the incremental generation required to support demand growth is 2012 sales multiplied by the percent increase in net energy for load for that year.  For example:
   * 2030 Incremental Generation to Support Demand Growth in the Eastern Interconnection = 2,824,274 GWh x 12.7% = 357,353 GWh
Table 3 contains the incremental generation to support demand growth for each interconnection in each year:
        Table 3. Incremental Generation to Support Demand Growth (GWh)
                                     Year
                            Eastern Interconnection
                            Western Interconnection
                             Texas Interconnection
                                     2022
                                    209,623
                                    44,887
                                    33,605
                                     2023
                                    228,901
                                    51,476
                                    37,525
                                     2024
                                    251,878
                                    59,148
                                    42,332
                                     2025
                                    272,214
                                    66,281
                                    46,616
                                     2026
                                    291,203
                                    72,570
                                    51,229
                                     2027
                                    308,827
                                    79,060
                                    55,042
                                     2028
                                    325,981
                                    85,759
                                    59,323
                                     2029
                                    343,525
                                    92,729
                                    64,065
                                     2030
                                    357,353
                                    98,181
                                    68,244

   2.    Subtract generation from under construction facilities included in the final rule
The incremental generation to support demand growth calculated in step 1 would be served in part by the under construction facilities that are part of the final rule but not reflected in the 2012 historical data.  Table 4 displays the under construction capacity that did not commence operations in 2012 for each facility type  -  affected coal-fired EGUs, affected natural gas-fired EGUs, and nuclear units that are eligible for compliance.
        Table 4. Under Construction Facilities by Interconnection (MW)
                                 Facility Type
                            Eastern Interconnection
                            Western Interconnection
                             Texas Interconnection
                                     NGCC
                                    10,633
                                     2,636
                                     2,489
                                     Coal
                                      655
                                       0
                                       0
                                    Nuclear
                                     5,522
                                       0
                                       0

Each facility type is assigned an annual net capacity factor associated with the amount of generation expected to meet future demand.  This capacity factor does not represent expected total annual output, but instead represents the portion of total annual output that will deduct from the incremental generation needed to support demand growth. For example, and consistent with the application of building block 2, under construction NGCC is assigned a capacity factor associated with future demand of 55%; coal-fired EGUs are assigned a capacity factor of 60%; and nuclear facilities are assigned a capacity factor of 66%.  The generation totals associated with applying these capacity factors to under construction facilities are shown in Table 5:
Table 5. Incremental Generation Assumed to Meet Future Demand from Under Construction Facilities by Interconnection (GWh)
                                 Facility Type
                            Eastern Interconnection
                            Western Interconnection
                             Texas Interconnection
                                     NGCC
                                    51,231
                                    12,702
                                    11,991
                                     Coal
                                     3,443
                                       0
                                       0
                                    Nuclear
                                    31,926
                                       0
                                       0

   3.    Subtract generation growth from affected EGUs and incremental RE accounted for in the calculation of mass goals
The calculation of mass goals incorporates an amount of generation growth from both affected EGUs and RE that would serve to meet future demand requirements.  Consequently, because the estimated emissions from this particular incremental generation are already included in the mass goals, it is necessary to deduct this amount of generation, listed in Table 6, from the incremental generation needed to support demand growth that will inform the estimation of the new source complements.
Table 6. Affected EGU and RE Generation Growth Incorporated in Mass Goal Calculation (GWh)
                                     Year
                            Eastern Interconnection
                            Western Interconnection
                             Texas Interconnection
                                     2022
                                    138,054
                                    29,209
                                    22,689
                                     2023
                                    131,858
                                    27,898
                                    21,670
                                     2024
                                    135,132
                                    28,591
                                    22,208
                                     2025
                                    149,186
                                    31,565
                                    24,518
                                     2026
                                    161,395
                                    34,148
                                    26,525
                                     2027
                                    164,934
                                    34,897
                                    27,106
                                     2028
                                    191,779
                                    40,576
                                    31,518
                                     2029
                                    218,279
                                    46,183
                                    35,873
                                     2030
                                    241,664
                                    51,131
                                    39,716

The amount of generation remaining after deducting the generation growth incorporated in mass goals is referred to as the new source complement generation, and it is defined as:
   * Interconnection-level new source complement generation = Incremental generation to support demand growth  -  Generation from under construction facilities dedicated to serving future demand (step 2)  -  Generation growth from affected EGUs and RE assumed in the mass goal calculation (step 3)
   * Eastern Interconnection new source complement generation in 2030 = 357,353 GWh  -  86,600 GWh  -  241,664 GWh = 29,090 GWh
The new source complement generation for each interconnection in each year is provided below in Table 7: 
     Table 7. Interconnection-Level New Source Complement Generation (GWh)
                                     Year
                            Eastern Interconnection
                            Western Interconnection
                             Texas Interconnection
                                     2022
                                       -
                                     2,976
                                       -
                                     2023
                                    10,443
                                    10,876
                                     3,864
                                     2024
                                    30,146
                                    17,855
                                     8,133
                                     2025
                                    36,428
                                    22,015
                                    10,107
                                     2026
                                    43,208
                                    25,720
                                    12,714
                                     2027
                                    57,294
                                    31,462
                                    15,945
                                     2028
                                    47,602
                                    32,480
                                    15,814
                                     2029
                                    38,647
                                    33,844
                                    16,200
                                     2030
                                    29,090
                                    34,349
                                    16,537

   4.    Apportion remaining incremental generation to states on the basis of each state's 2012 share of the interconnection's affected EGU generation total
The apportionment of interconnection-level new source complement generation to states is performed on the basis of each state's 2012 adjusted share of the interconnection's 2012 adjusted affected EGU generation.  For the purposes of this calculation, states that are in multiple interconnections are assigned the interconnection that contains the majority of that state's territory.  Each state's new source complement generation share is provided in Table 8 below:
           Table 8. Generation Shares for State-Level Apportionment
                                     State
                                Interconnection
             Share of Interconnection 2012 Affected EGU Generation
                                    Alabama
                                    Eastern
                                     5.0%
                                   Arkansas
                                    Eastern
                                     2.4%
                                    Arizona
                                    Western
                                     12.5%
                                  California
                                    Western
                                     24.9%
                                   Colorado
                                    Western
                                     10.9%
                                  Connecticut
                                    Eastern
                                     0.8%
                                   Delaware
                                    Eastern
                                     0.5%
                                    Florida
                                    Eastern
                                     10.3%
                        Lands of the Fort Mojave Tribe
                                    Western
                                     0.3%
                                    Georgia
                                    Eastern
                                     4.0%
                                     Iowa
                                    Eastern
                                     1.8%
                                     Idaho
                                    Western
                                     0.8%
                                   Illinois
                                    Eastern
                                     4.8%
                                    Indiana
                                    Eastern
                                     5.5%
                                    Kansas
                                    Eastern
                                     1.5%
                                   Kentucky
                                    Eastern
                                     4.4%
                                   Louisiana
                                    Eastern
                                     2.9%
                                 Massachusetts
                                    Eastern
                                     1.3%
                                   Maryland
                                    Eastern
                                     1.0%
                                     Maine
                                    Eastern
                                     0.2%
                                   Michigan
                                    Eastern
                                     3.7%
                                   Minnesota
                                    Eastern
                                     1.7%
                                   Missouri
                                    Eastern
                                     3.9%
                                  Mississippi
                                    Eastern
                                     2.4%
                                    Montana
                                    Western
                                     3.7%
                          Lands of the Navajo Nation
                                    Western
                                     7.1%
                                North Carolina
                                    Eastern
                                     4.1%
                                 North Dakota
                                    Eastern
                                     1.4%
                                   Nebraska
                                    Eastern
                                     1.3%
                                 New Hampshire
                                    Eastern
                                     0.4%
                                  New Jersey
                                    Eastern
                                     1.8%
                                  New Mexico
                                    Western
                                     4.6%
                                    Nevada
                                    Western
                                     6.8%
                                   New York
                                    Eastern
                                     3.1%
                                     Ohio
                                    Eastern
                                     5.6%
                                   Oklahoma
                                    Eastern
                                     3.4%
                                    Oregon
                                    Western
                                     4.0%
                                 Pennsylvania
                                    Eastern
                                     7.4%
                                 Rhode Island
                                    Eastern
                                     0.4%
                                South Carolina
                                    Eastern
                                     2.0%
                                 South Dakota
                                    Eastern
                                     0.3%
                                   Tennessee
                                    Eastern
                                     2.1%
                                     Texas
                                     Texas
                                    100.0%
                   Lands of the Uintah and Ouray Reservation
                                    Western
                                     0.7%
                                     Utah
                                    Western
                                     8.6%
                                   Virginia
                                    Eastern
                                     2.7%
                                  Washington
                                    Western
                                     4.7%
                                   Wisconsin
                                    Eastern
                                     2.1%
                                 West Virginia
                                    Eastern
                                     3.6%
                                    Wyoming
                                    Western
                                     10.4%

The new source complement generation level for a state is defined as:
   * State-level new source complement generation = Interconnection-level new source complement generation x 2012 state share of interconnection affected EGU generation
   * 2030 Alabama new source complement generation = 29,090 GWh x 5.0% = 1,467 GWh
State-level new source complement generation totals are provided for each state in each year in the `New Source Complements' spreadsheet.
   5.    Convert state-level generation to state-level emissions assuming the emissions intensity of the New Source Performance Standard emission rate for NGCC of 1,030 lbs/MWh
Each state-level new source complement generation level is multiplied by the NSPS NGCC emission rate standard of 1,030 lbs/MWh to produce a mass value:
   * New source complement = State-level new source complement generation x NSPS NGCC emission rate standard
   * 2030 Alabama new source complement = 1,467 GWh x 1,030 lbs/MWh = 755,700 short tons
New source complements are calculated for each year and each state, from 2022 through 2030.  The interim period new source complement is equal to the average of the annual values from 2022 through 2029.  The final period new source complement is equal to the 2030 value.  The interim and final period new source complements are provided in Table 9 below:

          Table 9. Average Annual New Source Complement (Short Tons)
                                     State
                                Interim Period
                                 Final Period
                                    Alabama 
                                    856,524
                                    755,700
                                    Arizona
                                   1,424,998
                                   2,209,446
                                   Arkansas
                                    411,315
                                    362,897
                                  California
                                   2,846,529
                                   4,413,516
                                   Colorado
                                   1,239,916
                                   1,922,478
                                  Connecticut
                                    135,410
                                    119,470
                                   Delaware
                                    78,842
                                    69,561
                                    Florida
                                   1,753,276
                                   1,546,891
                                    Georgia
                                    677,284
                                    597,559
                                     Idaho
                                    94,266
                                    146,158
                                   Illinois
                                    818,349
                                    722,018
                                    Indiana
                                    939,343
                                    828,769
                                     Iowa
                                    298,934
                                    263,745
                                    Kansas
                                    260,683
                                    229,997
                                   Kentucky
                                    752,454
                                    663,880
                                   Louisiana
                                    484,308
                                    427,299
                                     Maine
                                    40,832
                                    36,026
                                   Maryland
                                    170,930
                                    150,809
                                 Massachusetts
                                    225,127
                                    198,626
                                   Michigan
                                    623,651
                                    550,239
                                   Minnesota
                                    286,535
                                    252,806
                                  Mississippi
                                    410,440
                                    362,126
                                   Missouri
                                    668,637
                                    589,929
                                    Montana
                                    421,674
                                    653,801
                                   Nebraska
                                    216,149
                                    190,706
                                    Nevada
                                    770,417
                                   1,194,523
                                 New Hampshire
                                    71,419
                                    63,012
                                  New Jersey
                                    313,526
                                    276,619
                                  New Mexico
                                    527,139
                                    817,323
                                   New York
                                    522,227
                                    460,753
                                North Carolina
                                    692,091
                                    610,623
                                 North Dakota
                                    245,324
                                    216,446
                                     Ohio
                                    949,997
                                    838,170
                                   Oklahoma
                                    581,051
                                    512,654
                                    Oregon
                                    453,663
                                    703,399
                                 Pennsylvania
                                   1,257,336
                                   1,109,330
                                 Rhode Island
                                    70,035
                                    61,791
                                South Carolina
                                    344,885
                                    304,287
                                 South Dakota
                                    46,513
                                    41,038
                                   Tennessee
                                    358,838
                                    316,598
                                     Texas
                                   5,328,758
                                   8,516,408
                                     Utah
                                    981,947
                                   1,522,500
                                   Virginia
                                    450,039
                                    397,063
                                  Washington
                                    531,761
                                    824,490
                                 West Virginia
                                    602,940
                                    531,966
                                   Wisconsin
                                    364,841
                                    321,895
                                    Wyoming
                                   1,185,554
                                   1,838,190
                          Lands of the Navajo Nation
                                    809,562
                                   1,255,217
                   Lands of the Uintah and Ouray Reservation
                                    84,440
                                    130,923
                        Lands of the Fort Mojave Tribe
                                    37,162
                                    57,619