Document ID: FAA-2013-0259-1075
Agency: faa
Document Type: Notice
Title: Waiver of Acceptable Risk Restriction for Launch
Posted Date: 2016-01-12T05:00Z

[Federal Register Volume 81, Number 7 (Tuesday, January 12, 2016)]
[Notices]
[Pages 1472-1474]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]
[FR Doc No: 2016-00443]

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DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION

Federal Aviation Administration

Waiver of Acceptable Risk Restriction for Launch

AGENCY: Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), DOT.

ACTION: Notice of waiver.

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SUMMARY: This notice concerns two petitions for waiver submitted to the 
FAA by Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX): (1) A petition to 
waive the requirement that a waiver request be submitted at least 60 
days before the effective date of the waiver unless good cause for 
later submission is shown in the petition; and (2) a petition to waive 
the restriction that the risk to the public from the launch of an 
expendable launch vehicle not exceed an expected average number of 
0.00003 casualties (Ec <= 30 x 10-\6\) from 
debris.

DATES: This notice is effective January 12, 2016 and is applicable 
beginning December 18, 2015.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: For technical questions concerning 
this waiver, contact Charles P. Brinkman, Licensing Program Lead, 
Commercial Space Transportation--Licensing and Evaluation Division, 800 
Independence Avenue SW., Washington, DC 20591; telephone: (202) 267-
7715; email: Phil.Brinkman@faa.gov. For legal questions concerning this 
waiver, contact Laura Montgomery, Manager, Space Law Branch, AGC-210, 
Office of the Chief Counsel, Regulations Division, Federal Aviation 
Administration, 800 Independence Avenue SW., Washington, DC 20591; 
telephone (202) 267-3150; email: Laura.Montgomery@faa.gov.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:

Background

    On November 19, 2015, SpaceX submitted a petition, which it revised 
on November 24, 2015, to the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA's) 
Office of Commercial Space Transportation (AST) requesting a waiver 
with respect to a launch license for flight of a Falcon 9 launch 
vehicle carrying ORBCOMM-2 satellites. SpaceX requested a waiver of 14 
CFR 417.107(b)(1), which prohibits the launch of an expendable launch 
vehicle if the total expected average number of casualties 
(Ec) for the launch exceeds 0.00003 for risk from debris. 
Because the scheduled launch was planned to occur in less than sixty 
days, SpaceX also requested a waiver to section 404.3(b)(5), which 
requires that a petition for waiver be submitted at least sixty days 
before the proposed effective date of the waiver, which in this case 
would be the date of the planned launch.
    The FAA licenses the launch of a launch vehicle and reentry of a 
reentry vehicle under authority granted to the Secretary of 
Transportation in the Commercial Space Launch Act of 1984, as amended 
and re-codified by 51 U.S.C. Subtitle V, chapter 509 (Chapter 509), and 
delegated to the FAA Administrator and the Associate Administrator for 
Commercial Space Transportation, who exercises licensing authority 
under Chapter 509.
    SpaceX is a private commercial space flight company. The petition 
addresses an upcoming flight that SpaceX plans to undertake to deliver 
the ORBCOMM-2 satellites. SpaceX's Falcon 9 launch vehicle will launch 
from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) and its first stage will 
fly back to CCAFS for landing.
    The U.S. Air Force advised SpaceX that the preliminary calculation 
of Ec for the launch, including the planned first stage fly 
back, shows the launch would exceed the 0.00003 limit imposed by 
section 417.107(b)(1). The 45th Space Wing Range Safety calculated the 
total unmitigated Ec for the mission to be 0.000118 based on 
daytime populations on CCAFS, the worst-case December weather within 
the 45th Space Wing Range Safety data files, and 0.9665 reliability 
assigned to the flight computer with autonomous engine shutdown 
algorithms. The reliability of the human-activated flight termination 
system is 0.999. With mitigation, namely, the evacuation of all non-

[[Page 1473]]

essential personnel including visitors and press from CCAFS, risk drops 
to as low as 86 x 10-\6\ expected casualties, which is 
within the Air Force's criteria of 100 x 10-\6\ expected 
casualties for the sum of risks due to impacting inert and impacting 
explosive debris, toxic release, and far field blast overpressure. 
Analysis indicates that almost all the risk is due to debris, with the 
risk associated with the latter two hazards not contributing to the 
overall risk. The risk for debris is comprised of 76 x 
10-\6\ for ascent and fly back, with almost all of that risk 
coming from the fly back of the Falcon 9 first stage to CCAFS. 
Downrange overflight of Europe contributes 7 x 10-\6\, and 
the planned disposal of the Falcon 9 upper stage in the southern 
Pacific Ocean contributes less than 3 x 10-\6\. The FAA 
recognizes that any estimate of the Ec for any launch 
includes substantial uncertainties, and presenting these risk results 
as precise numbers implies better accuracy than actually exists. 
However, this type of presentation does allow showing the relative 
contributions of each of the risk components. Further, the risk 
computed on the day of launch may be different from the current 
estimate above.

Waiver Criteria

    Chapter 509 allows the FAA to waive a license requirement if the 
waiver (1) will not jeopardize public health and safety, safety of 
property; (2) will not jeopardize national security and foreign policy 
interests of the United States; and (3) will be in the public interest. 
51 U.S.C. 50905(b)(3) (2011); 14 CFR 404.5(b) (2011).

Section 404.3(b)(5) Waiver Petition

    Section 404.3(b)(5) requires that a petition for waiver be 
submitted at least sixty days before the proposed effective date of the 
waiver, which in this case would be the date of the planned launch, 
currently scheduled for December 19, 2015. This section also provides 
that a petition may be submitted late for good cause. Here, SpaceX 
initially submitted its waiver on November 19, 2015, which it revised 
on November 24, 2015, less than sixty days before the intended launch 
date. SpaceX needed the results of the initial analysis by the 45th 
Space Wing Range Safety before it was evident that a waiver of the 
Ec requirement would be required. Accordingly, the FAA is 
able to find good cause.

Section 417.107(b)(1) Waiver Petition

    Section 417.107(b)(1) prohibits the launch of a launch vehicle if 
the total Ec for the launch exceeds 0.00003 for debris. For 
reasons described below and in order to account for the potential 
variation in the Ec computed on the day of launch, the FAA 
will allow SpaceX to conduct a mission where the expected casualty risk 
due to impacting inert and impacting explosive debris exceeds 30 x 
10-\6\ casualties, provided the sum of the expected casualty 
risk due to debris, toxics, and far field blast overpressure remains 
less than or equal to 100 x 10-\6\, which is the Air Force's 
criterion. The expected casualty risks due to toxics and far field 
blast overpressure shall each remain less than or equal to 30 x 
10-\6\ in accordance with 14 CFR 417.107(b)(1).

Launch of the Falcon 9 Vehicle

    The FAA waives the debris risk requirement of section 417.107(b)(1) 
because the Falcon 9 launch will not jeopardize public health and 
safety or safety of property, a national security or foreign policy 
interest of the United States, and is in the public interest.

i. Public Health and Safety and Safety of Property

    The Falcon 9 ORBCOMM-2 launch is the first launch of an orbital 
expendable launch vehicle with a planned fly back of one of its stages 
to the launch site. SpaceX has attempted two landings of its Falcon 9 
first stage on a barge on the ocean off CCAFS. The stages reached their 
intended landing spot, but did not survive the landings. In neither 
case was public health or safety or safety of third party property 
jeopardized. The damage to SpaceX's barge was minimal. The USAF 
conducted an assessment of the risk to property on CCAFS and has 
determined that the risks are acceptable.
    The total risk that will be permitted will not exceed the expected 
casualty criterion proposed by the FAA in Changing the Collective Risk 
Limits for Launches and Reentries and Clarifying the Risk Limit Use to 
Establish Hazard Areas for Ships and Aircraft, Notice of Proposed 
Rulemaking, 79 FR 42241 (Jul. 21, 2014) (Risk NPRM), and used by NASA, 
the United States Air Force, and other U.S. National Test Ranges. See 
U.S. Air Force Instruction 91-217, Space Safety and Mishap Prevention 
Program (2010); NASA Procedural Requirements 8715.5 Rev A, Range Flight 
Safety Program (2010); Range Commanders Council (RCC) Standard 321-10, 
Common Risk Criteria Standards for National Test Ranges (2010). The 
major contribution to Ec for this launch of the Falcon 9 is 
attributable to the fly back of its first stage to CCAFS. As part of 
this mission, SpaceX intends to demonstrate the feasibility of 
returning the first stage to the launch site for its eventual reuse 
instead of disposing it in the ocean.
    The current Ec requirement for government launches from 
U.S. National Test Ranges is that risk from launch may not exceed 100 x 
10-\6\, which, because it is comprised of the sum of the 
risks from the three principal hazards of debris, toxics, and 
overpressure, means that the federal launch ranges can permit the risk 
attributable to debris to exceed the FAA's risk threshold. See Air 
Force Instruction 91-217, Space Safety and Mishap Prevention Program 
(2010). The FAA recently proposed a rule similar to that of U.S. 
National Test Ranges that would permit launch to occur so long as the 
total risk did not exceed 0.0001. The FAA has previously waived section 
417.107(b)(1) to allow SpaceX to conduct a launch whose total 
Ec was calculated to be between approximately 98 x 
10-\6\ and 121 x 10-\6\, and, accounting for 
potential variation on the day of launch, allowed SpaceX to conduct the 
mission as long as Ec did not exceed 0.00013. 77 FR 24556-
01, 2012 WL 1387813. For the reasons provided in the Risk NPRM and 
previous waivers, the FAA considers the estimated risk of 86 x 
10-\6\ will not jeopardize public safety.

ii. National Security and Foreign Policy Implications

    The FAA has identified no national security or foreign policy 
implications associated with granting this waiver.

iii. Public Interest

    The waiver is consistent with the public interest goals of Chapter 
509 and the National Space Transportation Policy. Three of the public 
policy goals of Chapter 509 are: (1) To promote economic growth and 
entrepreneurial activity through use of the space environment; (2) to 
encourage the United States private sector to provide launch and 
reentry vehicles and associated services; and (3) to facilitate the 
strengthening and expansion of the United States space transportation 
infrastructure to support the full range of United States space-related 
activities. See 51 U.S.C. 50901(b)(1), (2), (4). Commercial Space 
Transportation Licensing Regulations, Notice of Proposed Rulemaking, 62 
FR 13230 (Mar. 19, 1997). A successful demonstration of a stage 
returning to a launch site has the potential for reducing launch costs. 
As it is a major procurer of launch services, reduced launch costs will 
be of direct benefit to the U.S. Government. It will also help to make 
the U.S. launch industry more competitive internationally. The

[[Page 1474]]

National Space Transportation Policy clearly identifies how 
strengthening US competitiveness in the international launch market and 
improving the cost effectiveness of US space transportation services 
are in the public interests: ``Maintaining an assured capability to 
meet United States Government needs, while also taking the necessary 
steps to strengthen U.S. competitiveness in the international 
commercial launch market, is important to ensuring that U.S. space 
transportation capabilities will be reliable, robust, safe, and 
affordable in the future. Among other steps, improving the cost 
effectiveness of U.S. space transportation services could help achieve 
this goal by allowing the United States Government to invest a greater 
share of its resources in other needs such as facilities modernization, 
technology advancement, scientific discovery, and national security. 
Further, a healthier, more competitive U.S. space transportation 
industry would facilitate new markets, encourage new industries, create 
high technology jobs, lead to greater economic growth and security, and 
would further the Nation's leadership role in space.'' SpaceX's 
proposed demonstration is in the public interest.

    Issued in Washington, DC, on December 18, 2015.
Kenneth Wong,
Commercial Space Transportation, Licensing and Evaluation Division 
Manag.
[FR Doc. 2016-00443 Filed 1-11-16; 8:45 am]
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