Document ID: EPA-HQ-OW-2002-0049-0287
Agency: epa
Document Type: Supporting & Related Material
Title: 
Posted Date: 2003-03-19T05:00Z

Record
for
the
Section
316(
b)
Phase
II
Existing
Facilities
Notice
of
Data
Availability
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
A
B
C
D
Date
Modified:
2/
13/
03
By:
Abt
Associates
Inc.

Data
Sources:
IPM
output
316(
b)
P2
NODA
Base
Case
1d
Purpose:
National
summary
results
for
1d
Key
to
IPM
runs:

1d
­
Base
case
with
EPA
electricity
demand
growth
assumptions
2d
­
Base
case
with
AEO
electricity
demand
growth
assumptions
March
10,
2003
Page
1
of
8
dwcgi­
23902­
1049980919­
406709000.
xls
­
File
Info
Record
for
the
Section
316(
b)
Phase
II
Existing
Facilities
Notice
of
Data
Availability
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
A
B
C
D
E
F
Abt2_
1d
­
ABT
Water
Phase
II/
III
Base
Case
­­
12/
15/
2002
Region:
System
Page:
1.
1
Regional
Summary
Report
NOTES:

1.
Year
2026
is
the
End­
Year
and
should
not
be
used
for
analysis.

2008
2010
2013
2020
2026
­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­

1.
Reserve
Margin
Capacity
Annual
[
MW]
853350
868428
902698
975564
1039581
Plus
Firm
Purchases
Annual
[
MW]
0
0
0
0
0
Plus
Transmission
In
Annual
[
MW]
19279
23283
23695
20894
18815
­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­

Total
R.
M.
Capacity
Annual
[
MW]
872628
891711
926393
996458
1058396
­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­

2.
Peak
Load
Annual
[
MW]
748117
761387
792026
856657
913351
Less
DSM
[
MW]
0
0
0
0
0
Plus
Firm
Sales
[
MW]
0
0
0
0
0
Plus
Transmission
Out
Annual
[
MW]
19672
23758
24179
21320
19199
­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­

Net
Demand
Annual
[
MW]
767789
785145
816205
877977
932550
3.
Reserve
Margin
Annual
[%]
13.65
13.57
13.5
13.49
13.49
­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­

4.
Generation
[
GWh]
4092790
4146389
4295055
4599456
4860723
Inter­
Region
Transmission
[
GWh]
­
9206
­
8974
­
8449
­
8163
­
7779
Pumping
&
Storage
Losses
[
GWh]
15499
15225
15428
15072
14567
Plus
Purchases
[
GWh]
0
0
0
0
0
Less
Sales
[
GWh]
0
0
0
0
0
­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­

5.
Total
Supply
for
Demand
[
GWh]
4068084
4122190
4271178
4576221
4838377
­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­

6.
Projected
Demand
[
GWh]
4068084
4122190
4271178
4576221
4838377
Energy
Not
Served
[
GWh]
0
0
0
0
0
Less
DSM
[
GWh]
0
0
0
0
0
­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­

Net
Demand
[
GWh]
4068084
4122190
4271178
4576221
4838377
7.
Dumped
Energy
[
GWh]
0
0
0
0
0
­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­

8.
Total
Supply
for
Demand
[
GWh]
4068084
4122190
4271178
4576221
4838377
Less
T&
D
Losses
[
GWh]
312303
316457
327894
351312
371438
­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­

9.
Total
Sales
[
GWh]
3755781
3805733
3943284
4224909
4466939
Capacity
Avoided
Costs
[
US$/
kW]
2008
2010
2013
2020
2026
­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­

ANNUAL
51.85
35.6
41.08
44.49
46.2
WINTER
0
0
0
0
0
SUMMER
0
0
0
0
0
March
10,
2003
Page
2
of
8
dwcgi­
23902­
1049980919­
406709000.
xls
­
Page
1
Record
for
the
Section
316(
b)
Phase
II
Existing
Facilities
Notice
of
Data
Availability
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
10.
Capacity
by
Plant
Type
[
MW]
2008
2010
2013
2020
2026
­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­

Scrubbed
Coal_
NOx
1
4942
4942
4942
4942
4942
Scrubbed
Coal
2
51709
51709
51575
51575
50450
Unscrubbed
Coal_
NOx
3
10362
9201
9201
9201
9133
Unscrubbed
Coal
4
136274
132402
127787
110104
104231
Oil/
Gas
Steam
5
113737
113737
113737
113737
113737
Oil/
Gas
Steam_
Nox
6
4516
4516
4324
4324
4324
Nuclear
7
68862
61719
46446
10725
1935
Hydro
8
89789
89789
89789
89789
89789
Comb.
Cycle
Gas
9
85232
95835
110460
148009
181813
IGCC
10
612
612
612
612
612
Turbine
11
107983
116398
136860
181955
214773
Biomass
12
1108
1108
1108
1108
1108
Geothermal
13
2724
2724
2724
2724
2724
Landfill
Gas
14
91
91
91
91
91
Wind
15
1691
1691
1691
1691
1691
Fuel
Cell
16
0
0
0
0
0
Solar
17
325
325
325
325
325
Non
Fossil_
Other
18
2112
2112
2112
2112
2112
Fossil_
Other
19
45
45
45
45
45
Pump
Storage
20
22554
22554
22554
22554
22554
Int.
Imports
21
11000
11000
11000
11000
11000
Cgn_
Coal
22
3996
3996
3996
3992
3606
Cgn_
Gas
23
22539
22539
22539
22539
22539
Cgn_
Oil
24
1069
1069
1069
1069
1069
Cgn_
Other
25
1062
1062
1062
1062
1062
NonCG
IPP_
Coal
26
0
0
0
0
0
NonCG
IPP_
Gas
27
0
0
0
0
0
NonCG
IPP_
Other
28
0
0
0
0
0
Blr_
Coal
29
0
0
0
0
0
Blr_
Gas
30
0
0
0
0
0
Blr_
Oil
31
0
0
0
0
0
Blr_
Other
32
0
0
0
0
0
SteamOnly
Cogen
33
0
0
0
0
0
Rep.
Coal­
CC
34
70
70
70
70
70
Rep.
O/
G­
CC
35
20881
20881
21264
21264
21264
Rep.
Coal­
IGCC
36
0
0
0
0
0
Ret.
Scrubber
37
1900
5480
6602
6766
6223
Ret.
ExistSCR
&
Scrub
38
764
1900
1900
1900
1967
Ret.
ExistSNCR
&
Scrub
39
0
0
0
0
0
Ret.
SCR
40
53298
53226
52393
57552
59342
Ret.
ExistScrub
&
SCR
41
33001
33001
33135
33135
33135
Ret.
SNCR
42
2042
2042
3425
14387
18856
Ret.
ExistScrub
&
SNCR
43
4095
4095
4095
4095
5220
Ret.
SCR+
Scrb
44
2905
2976
5597
6965
6965
Ret.
SNCR+
Scrub
45
0
210
448
448
992
Ret.
Gas
Reburn
46
0
0
0
0
0
Ret.
ExistScrub+
GasR
47
0
0
0
0
0
Ret.
GasReburn+
Scrub
48
0
0
0
0
0
Ret.
ACI
49
0
0
0
0
0
Ret.
ExistScrub&
ACI
50
0
0
0
0
0
Ret.
ExistSCR&
ACI
51
0
0
0
0
0
Ret.
ExistSNCR&
ACI
52
0
0
0
0
0
Ret.
ACI
&
SCR
53
0
0
0
0
0
Ret.
ExistScrub&
ACI&
SCR
54
0
0
0
0
0
Ret.
ACI
&
SNCR
55
0
0
0
0
0
Ret.
ExistScrub&
ACI&
SNCR
56
0
0
0
0
0
Ret.
ACI
&
Srub
57
0
0
0
0
0
Ret.
ExistSCR&
ACI&
Scrub
58
0
0
0
0
0
Ret.
ExistSNCR&
ACI&
Scrub
59
0
0
0
0
0
March
10,
2003
Page
3
of
8
dwcgi­
23902­
1049980919­
406709000.
xls
­
Table
10
Record
for
the
Section
316(
b)
Phase
II
Existing
Facilities
Notice
of
Data
Availability
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
Ret.
ExistSNCR&
ExistScrub&
ACI
60
0
0
0
0
0
Ret.
ExistSCR&
ExistScrub&
ACI
61
0
0
0
0
0
Ret.
ExistNOx&
ExistScrub&
ACI
62
0
0
0
0
0
Ret.
SCR
&
Scrub
&
ACI
63
0
0
0
0
0
Ret.
SNCR
&
Scrub
&
ACI
64
0
0
0
0
0
Ret.
O/
G
SCR
65
872
872
872
872
872
Ret.
O/
G
SNCR
66
2595
2595
2595
2595
2595
Ret.
Nuclear
(
age
30+
10
yrs)
67
16351
18359
26991
31533
10608
Ret.
Nuclear
(
age
40+
20
yrs)
68
760
2062
7781
29214
56325
Ret.
Biomass
Cofiring
69
0
0
0
0
0
CT
Early
Retirement
70
0
0
0
0
0
CC
Early
Retirement
71
0
0
0
0
0
O/
G
Early
Retirement
72
705
705
705
705
705
Coal
Early
Retirement
73
0
0
0
0
0
Nuke
Early
Retirement
74
2680
4295
2011
1140
0
­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­

Total
887253
903946
935932
1007927
1070804
Total
­
less
reitrement
&
import
872,868
887,946
#####
995,082
######

March
10,
2003
Page
4
of
8
dwcgi­
23902­
1049980919­
406709000.
xls
­
Table
10
Record
for
the
Section
316(
b)
Phase
II
Existing
Facilities
Notice
of
Data
Availability
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
A
B
CDE
F
G
11.
Capacity
Additions
and
Changes
by
Plant
Type
[
MW]
2008
2010
2013
2020
2026
­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­

Scrubbed
Coal_
NOx
1
0
0
0
0
0
Scrubbed
Coal
2
0
0
0
0
0
Unscrubbed
Coal_
NOx
3
0
0
0
0
0
Unscrubbed
Coal
4
0
0
0
0
0
Oil/
Gas
Steam
5
0
0
0
0
0
Oil/
Gas
Steam_
Nox
6
0
0
0
0
0
Nuclear
7
0
0
0
0
0
Hydro
8
0
0
0
0
0
Comb.
Cycle
Gas
9
26418
10603
14625
37549
33805
IGCC
10
0
0
0
0
0
Turbine
11
34247
8415
20461
45096
32826
Biomass
12
0
0
0
0
0
Geothermal
13
0
0
0
0
0
Landfill
Gas
14
0
0
0
0
0
Wind
15
0
0
0
0
0
Fuel
Cell
16
0
0
0
0
0
Solar
17
0
0
0
0
0
Non
Fossil_
Other
18
0
0
0
0
0
Fossil_
Other
19
0
0
0
0
0
Pump
Storage
20
0
0
0
0
0
Int.
Imports
21
0
0
0
0
0
Cgn_
Coal
22
0
0
0
0
0
Cgn_
Gas
23
0
0
0
0
0
Cgn_
Oil
24
0
0
0
0
0
Cgn_
Other
25
0
0
0
0
0
NonCG
IPP_
Coal
26
0
0
0
0
0
NonCG
IPP_
Gas
27
0
0
0
0
0
NonCG
IPP_
Other
28
0
0
0
0
0
Blr_
Coal
29
0
0
0
0
0
Blr_
Gas
30
0
0
0
0
0
Blr_
Oil
31
0
0
0
0
0
Blr_
Other
32
0
0
0
0
0
SteamOnly
Cogen
33
0
0
0
0
0
Rep.
Coal­
CC
34
70
0
0
0
0
Rep.
O/
G­
CC
35
20881
0
383
0
0
Rep.
Coal­
IGCC
36
0
0
0
0
0
Ret.
Scrubber
37
4805
3580
2290
164
0
Ret.
ExistSCR
&
Scrub
38
764
1137
0
0
67
Ret.
ExistSNCR
&
Scrub
39
0
0
0
0
0
Ret.
SCR
40
53298
0
894
6557
1790
Ret.
ExistScrub
&
SCR
41
33001
0
134
0
0
Ret.
SNCR
42
2042
215
1382
10962
4469
Ret.
ExistScrub
&
SNCR
43
4095
0
0
0
1124
Ret.
SCR+
Scrb
44
2905
71
2621
1368
0
Ret.
SNCR+
Scrub
45
0
210
238
0
543
Ret.
Gas
Reburn
46
0
0
0
0
0
Ret.
ExistScrub+
GasR
47
0
0
0
0
0
Ret.
GasReburn+
Scrub
48
0
0
0
0
0
Ret.
ACI
49
0
0
0
0
0
Ret.
ExistScrub&
ACI
50
0
0
0
0
0
Ret.
ExistSCR&
ACI
51
0
0
0
0
0
Ret.
ExistSNCR&
ACI
52
0
0
0
0
0
Ret.
ACI
&
SCR
53
0
0
0
0
0
Ret.
ExistScrub&
ACI&
SCR
54
0
0
0
0
0
Ret.
ACI
&
SNCR
55
0
0
0
0
0
Ret.
ExistScrub&
ACI&
SNCR
56
0
0
0
0
0
Ret.
ACI
&
Srub
57
0
0
0
0
0
Ret.
ExistSCR&
ACI&
Scrub
58
0
0
0
0
0
March
10,
2003
Page
5
of
8
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406709000.
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Table
11
Record
for
the
Section
316(
b)
Phase
II
Existing
Facilities
Notice
of
Data
Availability
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
A
B
CDE
F
G
Ret.
ExistSNCR&
ACI&
Scrub
59
0
0
0
0
0
Ret.
ExistSNCR&
ExistScrub&
ACI
60
0
0
0
0
0
Ret.
ExistSCR&
ExistScrub&
ACI
61
0
0
0
0
0
Ret.
ExistNOx&
ExistScrub&
ACI
62
0
0
0
0
0
Ret.
SCR
&
Scrub
&
ACI
63
0
0
0
0
0
Ret.
SNCR
&
Scrub
&
ACI
64
0
0
0
0
0
Ret.
O/
G
SCR
65
872
0
0
0
0
Ret.
O/
G
SNCR
66
2595
0
0
0
0
Ret.
Nuclear
(
age
30+
10
yrs)
67
16351
2008
8632
22901
2268
Ret.
Nuclear
(
age
40+
20
yrs)
68
760
1302
5719
21433
27111
Ret.
Biomass
Cofiring
69
0
0
0
0
0
CT
Early
Retirement
70
0
0
0
0
0
CC
Early
Retirement
71
0
0
0
0
0
O/
G
Early
Retirement
72
705
0
0
0
0
Coal
Early
Retirement
73
0
0
0
0
0
Nuke
Early
Retirement
74
2680
1615
0
0
0
­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­

Total
206489
29156
57380
146030
104002
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10,
2003
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8
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Table
11
Record
for
the
Section
316(
b)
Phase
II
Existing
Facilities
Notice
of
Data
Availability
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
A
B
C
D
E
F
15.
Total
Annual
Production
Cost
2008
2010
2013
2020
2026
­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­

Variable
O&
M
7213
7302.5
7501.8
7824.4
8100.3
Fixed
O&
M
21784
21576.5
21863.3
21634.1
22041.3
Fuel
44316.1
44032.1
45191.2
48482.1
51240.2
Capital
6284.6
7697.4
10395.8
16530.4
21466
­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­
­­­­­­­­

Total
79597.7
80608.6
84952
94471.1
102847.8
Sales
Revenue
0
0
0
0
0
March
10,
2003
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7
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Table
15
Record
for
the
Section
316(
b)
Phase
II
Existing
Facilities
Notice
of
Data
Availability
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
A
B
C
D
E
F
Fuel
Consumption
by
Fuel
and
Fuel
Type
[
TBtu]

Fuel
2008
2010
2013
2020
2026
BA
2,393
2,764
2,744
2,742
2,818
BB
1,332
1,336
1,534
1,638
1,725
BD
4,101
4,060
4,159
4,638
4,420
BE
1,609
1,268
1,132
1,116
1,147
BF
1,762
1,581
1,471
1,127
1,170
BG
2,319
2,513
2,594
2,662
2,558
SB
5,446
5,508
5,590
5,736
6,183
SD
1,151
1,103
1,105
1,110
894
SE
336
328
320
320
320
LD
­
­
­
­
­

LE
­
­
­
­
­

LF
1,033
1,044
1,065
1,079
1,095
Coal
21,484
21,506
21,715
22,170
22,331
NY2.2%
­
­
­
­
­

NY1.5%
16
16
12
12
12
NY0.3%
4
4
4
4
4
GC2.2%
­
­
­
­
­

GC1.5%
­
­
­
­
­

GC0.3%
­
­
­
­
­

Oil
19
19
16
16
16
NUC
6,824
6,591
6,541
5,866
5,661
Nuclear
6,824
6,591
6,541
5,866
5,661
HYDRO
­
­
­
­
­

Hydro
­
­
­
­
­

GAS
6,919
7,325
8,155
10,259
11,949
Gas
6,919
7,325
8,155
10,259
11,949
WASTE
29
29
29
29
29
XXXXXX
­
­
­
­
­

Other
29
29
29
29
29
NONE
732
732
732
732
732
None
732
732
732
732
732
B1
92
92
92
90
90
B3
­
­
­
­
­

B2
­
­
­
­
­

Biomass
92
92
92
90
90
Grand
Total
36,098
36,292
37,278
39,160
40,806
March
10,
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Fuel
Consumption