Document ID: EPA-R04-OAR-2013-0084-0017
Agency: epa
Document Type: Supporting & Related Material
Title: 
Posted Date: 2016-01-11T05:00Z

PLAN 2040 Conformity Determination Report
                                  EXHIBIT 1A
                                       
                  Interagency Review of Planning Assumptions
                      Used in Regional Emissions Analysis
                For Atlanta Eight-Hour Ozone Nonattainment Area
                                       
                       Interagency Consultation Meeting
                          Atlanta Regional Commission

The ARC will be conducting a conformity analysis under the eight-hour ozone standard as part of the conformity determination for the PLAN 2040 RTP / FY 2012-2017 TIP for the 20 county nonattainment area.   
Below is a detailed listing of the procedures and planning assumptions for the upcoming conformity analysis of the PLAN 2040 RTP.  
Section 1: General Methods and Assumptions 
1) Modeling  Methodology: Estimate link-level VMT and congested flow speeds using ARC 20-county travel demand model that corresponds to the 20-county eight-hour ozone nonattainment area
   
2) Conformity Test
   a) Nonattainment Classification - Moderate
   b) Motor Vehicle Emission Budget (MVEB) Test
      i. NOx: 306.75 tpd
      ii. VOC: 172.27 tpd

3) Conformity Analysis Years: 2016, 2020, 2030, 2040
4) Modeling Start Date: March 2011.  This start date is defined by the ARC as the initiation of the first model run for the Plan 2040 RTP, begun when all datasets needed for the model run were completed.
5) Interagency Consensus on Planning Assumptions: January 25, 2011.
  
Section 2: Travel Demand Modeling Assumptions
   1)    Calibration Year: 2000 (with some 2005 interim validations and benchmarking thereafter)
   2)    Project Listing:  Project listings will be provided in electronic format to Interagency Consultation Group for review in the first quarter of 2011.
         a)       Regionally Significant and Federally Funded	
         b)       Regionally Significant and Non-Federally Funded
   3)    Demographic Data:  Provided as separate attachment
   4)    Speed Data: Free-flow Speed by Area Type and Facility Type 

                                          
                                       
                                   Area Type
                                       
                                       
                                 Facility Type
                            Urban Very High Density
                              Urban High Density
                             Urban Medium Density
                               Urban Low Density
                                   Suburban
                                    Exurban
                                     Rural
                                 Metered Ramps
                                       0
Zone Centroid Connectors
                                       7
                                      11
                                      11
                                      11
                                      11
                                      14
                                      14
                                       
                                       1
Interstate / Freeway  Free Flow
                                      55
                                      58
                                      58
                                      61
                                      61
                                      63
                                      65
                                       
                                       2
Parkway
                                      50
                                      50
                                      55
                                      55
                                      57
                                      60
                                      60
                                       
                                       3
HOV Buffer Separated
                                      55
                                      58
                                      58
                                      61
                                      61
                                      63
                                      65
                                       
                                       4
HOV Barrier Separated
                                      55
                                      58
                                      58
                                      61
                                      61
                                      63
                                      65
                                       
                                       5
High Speed Ramp / CD Road
                                      50
                                      50
                                      55
                                      55
                                      57
                                      60
                                      60
                                      15
                                       6
Medium Speed Ramp
                                      50
                                      50
                                      50
                                      50
                                      50
                                      50
                                      50
                                      10
                                       7
Low Speed Ramp
                                      40
                                      40
                                      40
                                      40
                                      40
                                      40
                                      40
                                      10
                                       8
Loop Ramp
                                      30
                                      30
                                      30
                                      30
                                      30
                                      30
                                      30
                                      10
                                       9
Off Ramp w/ Intersection
                                      25
                                      25
                                      25
                                      25
                                      25
                                      25
                                      25
                                       
                                      10
On Ramp w/ Intersection
                                      40
                                      40
                                      40
                                      40
                                      40
                                      40
                                      40
                                       5
                                      11
Expressway
                                      40
                                      42
                                      45
                                      48
                                      52
                                      55
                                      60
                                       
                                      12
Principal Arterial - Class I
                                      26
                                      30
                                      33
                                      36
                                      42
                                      46
                                      55
                                       
                                      13
Principal Arterial - Class II
                                      24
                                      27
                                      30
                                      34
                                      40
                                      44
                                      48
                                       
                                      14
Minor Arterial - Class I
                                      22
                                      25
                                      28
                                      31
                                      38
                                      42
                                      45
                                       
                                      15
Minor Arterial - Class II
                                      20
                                      23
                                      26
                                      29
                                      34
                                      38
                                      42
                                       
                                      16
HOV - Arterial (all classes)
                                      20
                                      27
                                      30
                                      33
                                      36
                                      39
                                      42
                                       
                                      17
Major Collector
                                      18
                                      22
                                      25
                                      28
                                      31
                                      34
                                      38
                                       
                                      18
Minor Collector
                                      15
                                      18
                                      21
                                      24
                                      27
                                      30
                                      35
                                       
                                      19
Planned Ramps w/ Intersections
                                      30
                                      30
                                      30
                                      30
                                      30
                                      30
                                      30
                                       5
                                      20
Planned Directional Ramps
                                      45
                                      45
                                      45
                                      45
                                      45
                                      45
                                      45
                                      10

   5)    Transit Modeling
   a) Model recalibrated to 2000 transit ridership estimates, provided by transit operators
   b) Reflects results from the 2001-2002 Transit On Board Survey, with preliminary adjustments from 2009 Transit On Board Survey
   c) Routes updated to reflect current operating plans
   d) Transit mode split is estimated using the mode choice model 
            i)   Estimates individual modal trips from the person trip movements developed in the trip distribution model.   
            ii)   Composed of three nested logit models: 
         (1) Home based work trips, which includes home based university trips; 
         (2) Home based other trips, which include home based other, home based shopping and home based grade school; and 
         (3) Non-home based trips.  
            iii)   The mode choice model is organized in terms of seven characteristics: 
         (1) Mathematical structure; 
         (2) Trip purposes and choice sets;
         (3) Limitations on choice sets;
         (4) Analysis of transit access;
         (5) Treatment of HOV lanes;
         (6) Stratification by income groups; and
         (7) Analysis of alternative transit paths. 
  e)   Transit Fare Modeling
     i)   Fare structure and operating plans supplied by the local transit operators
         (1) Fares remain constant over time, across all network years
         (2) Fares reflect current transit operating plans 
     ii)   Transit fare structure uses a fare matrix on a zone to zone level with a universal fare structure (flat fare) for all bus and rail lines
         (1) Changes to the existing fare structure and service frequency are coded directly into the model 
         (2) Current fare values in the model are weighted according to the percentage of riders using a discounted fare pass; changes to these assumptions can be incorporated directly into the model 
         (3) Peak and off-peak fares are equivalent
   f)   2009 Transit On Board Survey interim adjustments
     i)   Update of regional transit travel targets based on a preliminary expansion of the raw on-board survey data
         (1)  Modifications to express bus and BRT transfer constants
         (2)  Modifications to travel demand model estimates of zero-car transit work trips
         (3)  Modifications to travel demand model estimates of kiss-and-ride passenger access and use of transit system
         (4)  Overall evaluation of all modal constants
         (5)  Refinement to park-and-ride lot assumptions
         (6)  Updated walk connector and percent walk procedures
     ii)  Modified transit skimming procedures
     iii) Re-calibrated air passenger model
     iv) Assessment of travel demand model understanding of market segments and travel patterns relative to the on-board survey records

Section 3: Emissions Modeling Assumptions 
1) Emissions Factor Model: MOBILE6.2.03
2) Eight Hour Ozone Standard MOBILE6.2.03 Inputs (13-county portion)
   a) Average hourly temperature and relative humidity and average daily barometric pressure for the 10 highest ozone days, 2000  -  2002
   b) Stage II refueling
      i) Started in 1992
      ii) Three phase in years
      iii) 81% efficiency
   c) Anti-tampering program
      i) Started in 1982
      ii) Covers model years 1975  -  1995
      iii) All LDG vehicle types are covered
      iv) Annual program
      v) 97% compliance
      vi) Catalyst removal only
   d) I/M Program
      i) Exhaust and Evaporative (OBD and gas cap pressure test) for 1996 and newer vehicles
         (1) Began in 1982
         (2) Annual inspection required
         (3) Computerized test and repair OBD  -  Exhaust
         (4) Computerized test and repair OBD & GC - Evaporative
         (5) Applies to all LDG vehicle types
         (6) Three year grace period
         (7) 3% waiver rate for all vehicles  -  Exhaust test
         (8) 0% waiver rate for all vehicles  -  Evaporative test
         (9) 97% compliance
      ii) Exhaust and Evaporative test for 1975  -  1995 vehicles
         (1) Began in 1982
         (2) Annual inspection required
         (3) Computerized test and repair ASM 2525/5015 Phase-in  -  Exhaust
         (4) Computerized test and repair GC  -  Evaporative
         (5) Applies to all LDG vehicle types
         (6) 3% waiver rate for all vehicles  -  Exhaust
         (7) 0% waiver rate for all vehicles  -  Evaporative
         (8) 97% compliance
         (9) 25 year and older model years are exempt
   e) Fuel - Phase 2 Low Sulfur, Low RVP Georgia Gasoline 
      i) 100% market share of 10% ethanol-blend gasoline (E10) assumed
      ii) volatility waiver for E10 allows 1.0 psi RVP increase
   f) 2002 regional fleet age distribution
      i) Derived from R.L. Polk & Co. registration data for 13-county area
      ii) Applied to 15 of the 16 MOBILE6.2.03 composite vehicle classifications  -  LDV, LDT1, LDT2, LDT3, LDT4, HDV2B, HDV3, HDV4, HDV5, HDV6, HDV7, HDV8, HDBS, HDBT, MC
         (1) Default for HDV8B
         (2) Default VMT fractions

3)   Eight Hour Ozone Standard MOBILE6.2.03 Inputs (7-county portion)
   a) Average hourly temperature and relative humidity and average daily barometric pressure for the 10 highest ozone days, 2000  -  2002
   b) No Stage II refueling
   c) No anti-tampering program
   d) No I/M program
   e) Fuel - Phase 2 Low Sulfur, Low RVP Georgia Gasoline
      i) 100% market share of 10% ethanol-blend gasoline (E10) assumed
      ii) volatility waiver for E10 allows 1.0 psi RVP increase
   f) 2002 regional fleet age distribution
      i) Derived from R.L. Polk & Co. registration data for 7 county area
      ii) Applied to 15 of the 16 MOBILE6.2.03 composite vehicle classifications  -  LDV, LDT1, LDT2, LDT3, LDT4, HDV2B, HDV3, HDV4, HDV5, HDV6, HDV7, HDV8, HDBS, HDBT, MC
         (1) Default for HDV8B
         (2)  Default VMT fractions
              
4) VMT adjustment factors 
   a) Calculated for year 2000 
   b) HPMS adjustment in base year of calibration in accordance with  Section 93.122(b)(3) of the Transportation Conformity Rule which recommends that HPMS adjustment factors be developed to reconcile travel model estimates of VMT in base year of validation to HPMS estimates for the same period
   c) Summer (seasonal) adjustment to convert from average annual VMT to summer-season VMT
   d) Factors applied to VMT estimates generated by ARC travel demand model for 13-county portion and 7-county portion of 20-county modeling domain, separately.

                            VMT Adjustment Factors
                             Functional Class Name
                           Factor for 13 County Area
                           Factor for 7 County Area
                               Rural Interstate
                                     0.67
                                     0.89
                           Rural Principal Arterial
                                     1.02
                                     0.99
                              Rural Min. Arterial
                                     1.16
                                     0.98
                             Rural Major Collector
                                     0.88
                                     1.81
                             Rural Minor Collector
                                     1.07
                                     1.81
                                  Rural Local
                                     0.64
                                     1.10
                               Urban Interstate
                                     1.05
                                     0.86
                             Urban,  Other Freeway
                                     2.44
                                     0.85
                           Urban Principal Arterial
                                     0.67
                                     0.97
                             Urban Minor Arterial
                                     1.21
                                     0.96
                              Urbanized Collector
                                     1.21
                                     1.80
                                Urbanized Local
                                     0.95
                                     1.06
                                       
5) Off-Model Calculations
   a) Senior I/M Exemption (emissions debit)
      i) The Senior I/M Exemption calculated for year 2002 is conservatively high and will be added to the regional emission inventories for each analysis year.
      
6) TCMs
   a) No additional credit is taken in the emissions modeling process for SIP TCMs
   b) Listed below is a TCM status report
      
      
      
      
      
      
Description
ARC Project #
GDOT PI #
TIP
Status
HOV LANES
Sponsor  -  GDOT

I-85N from Chamblee-Tucker Rd to SR 316 (HOT Lanes),
I-85 @ SR 316, Interchange Reconstruction
AR 073B
713760
98-00,
99-01
Under construction*

GW-AR 053A
GW-AR 053B
110530
01-03
02-04
03-05
05-10
Implemented 
Implemented
ATLANTIC STATION, 17[th] STREET BRIDGE
Sponsor  -  City of Atlanta
A  -  Bridge and Southbound off ramps
C  -  Northside Dr over Norfolk Southern Railroad to Atlantic Station
D  -  Northbound off ramp to 17[th] Street Bridge, Williams St Relocation 
AT-AR 224A
AT-AR 224C
AT-AR 224D

714190
0001297
0001298
00-02
01-03
02-04
03-05
05-10
A  -  Implemented
C  -  Implemented
D  -  Implemented
CLEAN FUEL BUSES
Sponsors  -  MARTA and CCT
M-AR 232
N/A
94-95

Implemented
EXPRESS BUS ROUTES
Sponsor  -  MARTA
M-R 160
M-R 162
770632
770632
94-96
Implemented
IMPROVE / EXPAND BUS SERVICE 
Sponsor  -  MARTA
M-R 161
770633
96-98
Implemented
INTERSECTION UPGRADE, COORDINATION & COMPUTERIZATION
Sponsor(s)  -  GDOT in partnership with local Jurisdictions
AT 089
04Y108
93-95
Implemented

CL 094
770600
94-96
Implemented

CO 249
770601
94-96
Implemented

DK 118
770603
94-96
Implemented

FN 086
770605
94-96
Implemented

FS 068
770605
94-96
Implemented

GW 135
170950
94-96
Implemented

R 098
04418
93-95
Implemented

R 098
770391
94-96
Implemented
ITS  -  ADVANCED TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT SYSTEM / INCIDENT MANAGEMENT PROGRAM
Sponsor  -  GDOT
I-75/I-85 within I-285, Northern portion of I-285 between  I-75 and I-85
R 098
770391
94-96
Implemented
CLEAN FUELS REVOLVING LOAN PROGRAM
Sponsor  -  GEFA
R 195
770790, 770795
96-98
Implemented
HOV LANES
Sponsor  -  GDOT

 I-75 and I-85 within I-285
R 174
320H94
94-96
Implemented
PARK & RIDE LOTS 
Sponsor(s)  -  Douglas & Rockdale Counties

Douglas County  -  Chapel Hill @ I-20,
Rockdale County  -  Sigman @ I-20
DO 211C

94-96
Implemented
REGIONAL COMMUTE OPTIONS & HOV MARKETING PROGRAMS
Sponsor(s)  -  GDOT
R 159
770631
94-96
Implemented
SIGNAL PREEMPTION
Sponsor  -  MARTA
M-R 164
770636
94-96
Implemented
TRANSIT INCENTIVES PROGRAM
Sponsor - MARTA
M-AR 231A
M-AR 231B
771031
771119
98-00
99-01
00-02
Implemented
TRANSPORTATION MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATIONS
Sponsor  -  ARC
AR 221A
AR 221B
AR 221C
AR 221E
AR 221F
771033
771140
771141
0000570
0000571
98-00
99-01
00-02
01-03
Implemented
UNIVERSITY RIDESHARE PROGRAM
Sponsor - ARC
AR 220A
AR 220B
AR 220C
AR 220D
AR 200E
771032
771113
0000351
0000567
0000568
98-00
99-01
00-02
01-03
02-04
Implemented
      
      

* This project was substituted for the HOV lane.  The substitution was adopted on November 5, 2009 by EPA's concurrence letter. 

                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                  EXHIBIT 1B
                                       
                  Interagency Review of Planning Assumptions
                      Used in Regional Emissions Analysis
                     For Atlanta PM2.5 Nonattainment Area
                                       
                       Interagency Consultation Meeting
                          Atlanta Regional Commission
                                       

The ARC will be conducting a conformity analysis under the PM2.5 standard as part of the conformity determination for the PLAN 2040 RTP / FY 2012-2017 TIP for the 20 county nonattainment area.   
Below is a detailed listing of the procedures and planning assumptions for the upcoming conformity analysis of the PLAN 2040 RTP.  
Section 1: General Methods and Assumptions 
   1)    Modeling  Methodology
   a) Estimate link-level VMT and congested flow speeds using ARC 20-county travel demand model that corresponds to the 20 full-county portion of the PM2.5 nonattainment area
   b) Estimate VMT for Heard and Putnam partial-county areas using historical traffic count data derived from GDOT's Annual Traffic Count (ATC) program database
      i) ATC data provided by county by traffic count station
      ii) Traffic count growth trends for each analysis year estimated through linear regression using the most recent six years of consecutive traffic count data available
   c) Estimate congested flow speeds for Heard and Putnam partial-county areas using VMT-weighted speed by HPMS functional class, extrapolated from ARC travel demand model for each analysis year
   1)    Conformity Test
       a)  Nonattainment Classification - Basic
             i)   No-Greater-Than-Base-Year interim emissions test
        (1)  2002 base year
        (2)  Base year emissions to be developed as part of conformity analysis as provided for in preamble to the eight-hour ozone and PM2.5 Transportation Conformity Rule.  Base year emissions will be established using the same modeling methodology presented above.
   3)    Conformity Analysis Years: 2016, 2020, 2030, 2040
   4)    Modeling Start Date: March 2011.  This start date is defined by the ARC as the initiation of the first model run for the PLAN 2040 RTP Update and FY 2008-2013 TIP, begun when all datasets needed for the model run were completed.
   5)    Interagency Consensus on Planning Assumptions: January 25, 2011

Section 2: Travel Demand Modeling Assumptions
   1)    Calibration Year: 2000 (with some 2005 interim validations and benchmarking thereafter)
   2)    Project Listing:  Project listings will be provided in electronic format to Interagency Consultation Group for review in the first quarter of 2011.
   a)   Regionally Significant and Federally Funded
   b)   Regionally Significant and Non-Federally Funded
   3)    Demographic Data:  Provided as separate attachment
   4)    Speed Data: Free-flow Speed by Area Type and Facility Type 
 

                                       
                                       
                                   Area Type
                                       
                                       
                                 Facility Type
                            Urban Very High Density
                              Urban High Density
                             Urban Medium Density
                               Urban Low Density
                                   Suburban
                                    Exurban
                                     Rural
                                 Metered Ramps
                                       0
                           Zone Centroid Connectors
                                       7
                                      11
                                      11
                                      11
                                      11
                                      14
                                      14
                                       
                                       1
                        Interstate / Freeway  Free Flow
                                      55
                                      58
                                      58
                                      61
                                      61
                                      63
                                      65
                                       
                                       2
                                    Parkway
                                      50
                                      50
                                      55
                                      55
                                      57
                                      60
                                      60
                                       
                                       3
                             HOV Buffer Separated
                                      55
                                      58
                                      58
                                      61
                                      61
                                      63
                                      65
                                       
                                       4
                             HOV Barrier Separated
                                      55
                                      58
                                      58
                                      61
                                      61
                                      63
                                      65
                                       
                                       5
                           High Speed Ramp / CD Road
                                      50
                                      50
                                      55
                                      55
                                      57
                                      60
                                      60
                                      15
                                       6
                               Medium Speed Ramp
                                      50
                                      50
                                      50
                                      50
                                      50
                                      50
                                      50
                                      10
                                       7
                                Low Speed Ramp
                                      40
                                      40
                                      40
                                      40
                                      40
                                      40
                                      40
                                      10
                                       8
                                   Loop Ramp
                                      30
                                      30
                                      30
                                      30
                                      30
                                      30
                                      30
                                      10
                                       9
                           Off Ramp w/ Intersection
                                      25
                                      25
                                      25
                                      25
                                      25
                                      25
                                      25
                                       
                                      10
                            On Ramp w/ Intersection
                                      40
                                      40
                                      40
                                      40
                                      40
                                      40
                                      40
                                       5
                                      11
                                  Expressway
                                      40
                                      42
                                      45
                                      48
                                      52
                                      55
                                      60
                                       
                                      12
                         Principal Arterial - Class I
                                      26
                                      30
                                      33
                                      36
                                      42
                                      46
                                      55
                                       
                                      13
                         Principal Arterial - Class II
                                      24
                                      27
                                      30
                                      34
                                      40
                                      44
                                      48
                                       
                                      14
                           Minor Arterial - Class I
                                      22
                                      25
                                      28
                                      31
                                      38
                                      42
                                      45
                                       
                                      15
                           Minor Arterial - Class II
                                      20
                                      23
                                      26
                                      29
                                      34
                                      38
                                      42
                                       
                                      16
                         HOV - Arterial (all classes)
                                      20
                                      27
                                      30
                                      33
                                      36
                                      39
                                      42
                                       
                                      17
                                Major Collector
                                      18
                                      22
                                      25
                                      28
                                      31
                                      34
                                      38
                                       
                                      18
                                Minor Collector
                                      15
                                      18
                                      21
                                      24
                                      27
                                      30
                                      35
                                       
                                      19
                        Planned Ramps w/ Intersections
                                      30
                                      30
                                      30
                                      30
                                      30
                                      30
                                      30
                                       5
                                      20
                           Planned Directional Ramps
                                      45
                                      45
                                      45
                                      45
                                      45
                                      45
                                      45
                                      10

5)  Transit Modeling
      a)   Model recalibrated to 2000 transit ridership estimates, provided by transit operators
      b)   Reflects results from the 2001-2002 Transit On Board Survey, with preliminary adjustments from   2009 Transit On Board Survey
      c)   Routes updated to reflect current operating plans
      d)   Transit mode split is estimated using the mode choice model 
     i)   Estimates individual modal trips from the person trip movements developed in 
                  the trip distribution model.   
            ii)   Composed of three nested logit models: 
	(1) Home based work trips, which includes home based university trips; 
      (2) Home based other trips, which include home based other, home based shopping and home based grade school; and 
	(3) Non-home based trips.  
            iii)   The mode choice model is organized in terms of seven characteristics: 
	 (1) Mathematical structure; 
	 (2) Trip purposes and choice sets;
	 (3) Limitations on choice sets;
	 (4) Analysis of transit access;
	 (5) Treatment of HOV lanes;
	 (6) Stratification by income groups; and
	 (7) Analysis of alternative transit paths. 
         e)   Transit Fare Modeling
	 i)   Fare structure and operating plans supplied by the local transit operators
       (1) Fares remain constant over time, across all network years
       (2) Fares reflect current transit operating plans 
      ii)   Transit fare structure uses a fare matrix on a zone to zone level with a universal fare structure (flat fare) for all bus and rail lines
      (1) Changes to the existing fare structure and service frequency are coded directly into the model 
      (2) Current fare values in the model are weighted according to the percentage of riders using a discounted fare pass; changes to these assumptions can be incorporated directly into the model 
      (3) Peak and off-peak fares are equivalent
  f)   2009 Transit On Board Survey interim adjustments
     i)   Update of regional transit travel targets based on a preliminary expansion of the raw on-board survey data
         (1)  Modifications to express bus and BRT transfer constants
         (2)  Modifications to travel demand model estimates of zero-car transit work trips
         (3)  Modifications to travel demand model estimates of kiss-and-ride passenger access and use of transit system
         (4)  Overall evaluation of all modal constants
         (5)  Refinement to park-and-ride lot assumptions
         (6)  Updated walk connector and percent walk procedures
     ii)  Modified transit skimming procedures
     iii) Re-calibrated air passenger model
     iv) Assessment of travel demand model understanding of market segments and travel patterns relative to the on-board survey records

Section 3: Emissions Modeling Assumptions 
1) Emissions Factor Model: MOBILE6.2.03
2) PM2.5 Standard MOBILE6.2.03 Inputs (13-county portion)
Annual averages of the hourly average temperature and relative humidity for each hour of each month; and annual average of the daily average barometric pressure for each month; 2000  -  2002
   a) Stage II refueling
      i) Started in 1992
      ii) Three phase in years
      iii) 81% efficiency
   b) Anti-tampering program
      i) Started in 1982
      ii) Covers model years 1975  -  1995
      iii) All LDG vehicle types are covered
      iv) Annual program
      v) 97% compliance
      vi) Catalyst removal only
   c) I/M Program
      i) Exhaust and Evaporative (OBD and gas cap pressure test) for 1996 and newer vehicles
         (1) Began in 1982
         (2) Annual inspection required
         (3) Computerized test and repair OBD  -  Exhaust
         (4) Computerized test and repair OBD & GC - Evaporative
         (5) Applies to all LDG vehicle types
         (6) Three year grace period
         (7) 3% waiver rate for all vehicles  -  Exhaust test
         (8) 0% waiver rate for all vehicles  -  Evaporative test
         (9) 97% compliance
      ii) Exhaust and Evaporative test for 1975  -  1995 vehicles
         (1) Began in 1982
         (2) Annual inspection required
         (3) Computerized test and repair ASM 2525/5015 Phase-in  -  Exhaust
         (4) Computerized test and repair GC  -  Evaporative
         (5) Applies to all LDG vehicle types
         (6) 3% waiver rate for all vehicles  -  Exhaust
         (7) 0% waiver rate for all vehicles  -  Evaporative
         (8) 97% compliance
         (9) 25 year and older model years are exempt
   d) Fuel
      i) 2002 Base Year:  Annual average sulfur and Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP) based on caps in Georgia's Low Sulfur, Low RVP gasoline marketing rule (June  -  September) and on the monthly sulfur and RVP values in USEPA's National Mobile Inventory Model (NMIM) database (October  -  May) 
      ii) 2010 and later:  Phase 2 Low Sulfur (30ppm) Georgia Gasoline year-round; annual average RVP based on caps in Georgia's gasoline marketing rule (June-September) and on the monthly RVP values in the NMIM database (October-May) 
      iii) Diesel sulfur:  average of the monthly values in USEPA's NMIM database for each analysis year
   e) 2002 regional fleet age distribution
      i) Derived from R.L. Polk & Co. registration data for 13-county area
      ii) Applied to 15 of the 16 MOBILE6.2.03 composite vehicle classifications  -  LDV, LDT1, LDT2, LDT3, LDT4, HDV2B, HDV3, HDV4, HDV5, HDV6, HDV7, HDV8, HDBS, HDBT, MC
         (1) Default for HDV8B
         (2) Default VMT fractions
            
3)   PM2.5 Standard MOBILE6.2.03 Inputs (7-county and partial-county portions)
   a) Annual averages of the hourly average temperature and relative humidity for each hour of each month; and annual average of the daily average barometric pressure for each month; 2000  -  2002
   b) No Stage II refueling
   c) No anti-tampering program
   d) No I/M program
   e) Fuel
      i) 2002 Base Year:  Annual average sulfur and RVP based on caps in Georgia's Low Sulfur, Low RVP gasoline marketing rule (June  -  September) and on the monthly sulfur and RVP values in USEPA's NMIM database (October  -  May) 
      ii) 2010 and later:  Phase 2 Low Sulfur (30ppm) Georgia Gasoline year-round; annual average RVP based on caps in Georgia's gasoline marketing rule (June-September) and on the monthly RVP values in the NMIM database (October-May)
      iii) Diesel sulfur:  average of the monthly values in USEPA's NMIM database for each analysis year
   f) 2002 regional fleet age distribution
      i) Derived from R.L. Polk & Co. registration data for 9 counties (Carroll, Bartow, Hall, Barrow, Walton, Newton, Spalding, Heard, and Putnam)
      ii) Applied to 15 of the 16 MOBILE6.2 composite vehicle classifications  -  LDV, LDT1, LDT2, LDT3, LDT4, HDV2B, HDV3, HDV4, HDV5, HDV6, HDV7, HDV8, HDBS, HDBT, MC
         (1) Default for HDV8B     
         (2) Default VMT fractions
            
4) VMT adjustment factors 
   a) Calculated for year 2000 
      i) Reflects Section 93.122(b)(3) of the Transportation Conformity Rule which recommends that HPMS adjustment factors be developed to reconcile travel model estimates of VMT in base year of validation to HPMS estimates for the same period.  
      ii) Factors applied to VMT estimates generated by ARC travel demand model for 13-county portion and 7-county portion of 20-county modeling domain, separately.

                                       
                                       
                            VMT Adjustment Factors
                             Functional Class Name
                           Factor for 13 County Area
                           Factor for 7 County Area
                               Rural Interstate
                                     0.64
                                     0.85
                             Rural Prin. Arterial
                                     1.00
                                     0.97
                              Rural Min. Arterial
                                     1.14
                                     0.97
                             Rural Major Collector
                                     0.87
                                     1.80
                             Rural Minor Collector
                                     1.06
                                     1.80
                                  Rural Local
                                     0.64
                                     1.09
                                Urb. Interstate
                                     1.03
                                     0.85
                                Urb. Other Fwy
                                     2.38
                                     0.85
                              Urb. Prin. Arterial
                                     0.68
                                     0.97
                              Urb. Min. Arterial
                                     1.22
                                     0.97
                              Urbanized Collector
                                     1.24
                                     1.80
                                Urbanized Local
                                     0.97
                                     1.09

5)  Off-Model Calculations
   a) Senior I/M Exemption (emissions debit)
      i) The Senior I/M Exemption calculated for year 2002 is conservatively high and will be added to the regional emission inventories for each analysis year.
6) TCMs
   a) No additional credit is taken in the emissions modeling process for SIP TCMs
   b) Listed below is a TCM status report
      
Description
ARC Project #
GDOT PI #
TIP
Status
HOV LANES
Sponsor  -  GDOT

I-85N from Chamblee-Tucker Rd to SR 316 (HOT Lanes),
I-85 @ SR 316, Interchange Reconstruction
AR 073B
713760
98-00,
99-01
Under construction*

GW-AR 053A
GW-AR 053B
110530
01-03
02-04
03-05
05-10
Implemented 
Implemented
ATLANTIC STATION, 17[th] STREET BRIDGE
Sponsor  -  City of Atlanta
A  -  Bridge and Southbound off ramps
C  -  Northside Dr over Norfolk Southern Railroad to Atlantic Station
D  -  Northbound off ramp to 17[th] Street Bridge, Williams St Relocation 
AT-AR 224A
AT-AR 224C
AT-AR 224D

714190
0001297
0001298
00-02
01-03
02-04
03-05
05-10
A  -  Implemented
C  -  Implemented
D  -  Implemented
CLEAN FUEL BUSES
Sponsors  -  MARTA and CCT
M-AR 232
N/A
94-95

Implemented
EXPRESS BUS ROUTES
Sponsor  -  MARTA
M-R 160
M-R 162
770632
770632
94-96
Implemented
IMPROVE / EXPAND BUS SERVICE 
Sponsor  -  MARTA
M-R 161
770633
96-98
Implemented
INTERSECTION UPGRADE, COORDINATION & COMPUTERIZATION
Sponsor(s)  -  GDOT in partnership with local Jurisdictions
AT 089
04Y108
93-95
Implemented

CL 094
770600
94-96
Implemented

CO 249
770601
94-96
Implemented

DK 118
770603
94-96
Implemented

FN 086
770605
94-96
Implemented

FS 068
770605
94-96
Implemented

GW 135
170950
94-96
Implemented

R 098
04418
93-95
Implemented

R 098
770391
94-96
Implemented
ITS  -  ADVANCED TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT SYSTEM / INCIDENT MANAGEMENT PROGRAM
Sponsor  -  GDOT
I-75/I-85 within I-285, Northern portion of I-285 between  I-75 and I-85
R 098
770391
94-96
Implemented
CLEAN FUELS REVOLVING LOAN PROGRAM
Sponsor  -  GEFA
R 195
770790, 770795
96-98
Implemented
HOV LANES
Sponsor  -  GDOT

 I-75 and I-85 within I-285
R 174
320H94
94-96
Implemented
PARK & RIDE LOTS 
Sponsor(s)  -  Douglas & Rockdale Counties

Douglas County  -  Chapel Hill @ I-20,
Rockdale County  -  Sigman @ I-20
DO 211C

94-96
Implemented
REGIONAL COMMUTE OPTIONS & HOV MARKETING PROGRAMS
Sponsor(s)  -  GDOT
R 159
770631
94-96
Implemented
SIGNAL PREEMPTION
Sponsor  -  MARTA
M-R 164
770636
94-96
Implemented
TRANSIT INCENTIVES PROGRAM
Sponsor - MARTA
M-AR 231A
M-AR 231B
771031
771119
98-00
99-01
00-02
Implemented
TRANSPORTATION MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATIONS
Sponsor  -  ARC
AR 221A
AR 221B
AR 221C
AR 221E
AR 221F
771033
771140
771141
0000570
0000571
98-00
99-01
00-02
01-03
Implemented
UNIVERSITY RIDESHARE PROGRAM
Sponsor - ARC
AR 220A
AR 220B
AR 220C
AR 220D
AR 200E
771032
771113
0000351
0000567
0000568
98-00
99-01
00-02
01-03
02-04
Implemented
      * This project was substituted for the HOV lane.  The substitution was adopted on November 5, 2009 by EPA's concurrence letter. 

                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                  EXHIBIT 1C
                             Interagency Review of
               Population & Employment Planning Assumptions
                      Used in Regional Emissions Analysis
          For Atlanta Eight-Hour Ozone and PM2.5 Nonattainment Areas
                                       
                       Interagency Consultation Meeting
                          Atlanta Regional Commission
                                       
                          Final IAC Approval: 3/1/11

The ARC will be conducting a conformity analysis under the PM2.5 standard as part of the conformity determination for the PLAN 2040 RTP / FY 2012-2017 TIP for the 20 county nonattainment area.   
Below is a detailed listing of the procedures and planning assumptions for the upcoming conformity analysis of the PLAN 2040 RTP.  

ARC periodically revises its population and employment forecasts based on best available current information. Each revision is a two-step process. First, new region-level forecasts are produced. These then become region-level controls for census tract and traffic analysis zone (TAZ) forecasts.

The most current region-level control forecasts (PLAN 2040) were completed in spring of 2009. The accompanying table summarizes the new population and employment controls for the updated, 20-county study area.

ARC staff was assisted in the development of these regional forecasts by a Technical Advisory Committee (TAC) of nationally known, local experts on the Atlanta Regional Economy. Chair of the Committee was Dr. Donald Ratajczak, Regents Professor Emeritus of Economics at Georgia State University. Dr. Ratajczak served as director of the Economic Forecasting Center in the J. Mack Robinson College of Business at Georgia State University from 1973 until June 2000 and as a professor of economics in the Andrew Young School of Policy Studies until he retired in 2000. The committee recommended the final adopted forecasts for use by the Commission in 2009.

The second step in the forecasting process uses mathematical models to disaggregate the region-level control population and employment forecasts to "small areas": the Superdistrict, census tract and traffic analysis zone (TAZ) level. TAZs are nested within census tracts. Census tracts nest within superdistricts. The mathematical models underlying the region-level controls have evolved and become more complex, but ARC's basic approach is the same today as in 1975. 

The TAZ Disaggregator (TAZ-D) model has been used in Plan2040 to disaggregate the regional controls to small areas. This model runs annually and iteratively (unlike the five-year iterative sequence of the previous model small area model, DRAM/EMPAL). The process is fully integrated with the ARC travel demand model, as impedances (travel costs) from the travel model are a significant influence layer for spatial allocation of population and job growth. 

Population and job levels from each successive single-year forecast become the base for forecasts in the next model year. First, the Cube/TP+ model analyze base year traffic patterns and produces accessibility measures (impedances or travel costs) within the 20-county forecasted area. Then, the TAZ-D model uses the composite impedances; Superdistrict-level distribution of base-year population, employment and land use; and other spatial influence layers (e.g. like land use, interchange locations, major arterials, transit stations, etc.) to develop grid-level forecasts one year into the future. The size of the grid areas in the TAZ-D model vary by geographic area of the region, as do the weights assigned to various spatial influence factors for growth. The Unified Growth Policy Map (UGPM) was used by the TAZ-D as the baseline source to generate household and job density and/or intensity levels to allocate future growth. The grid-level forecasts are then aggregated back up to the TAZ, tract, and superdistrict levels. The TAZ-level forecasts then become the input used by the Cube/TP+ model to produce the impedances measure that drives the next iteration of the integrated model run.

All these models are carefully calibrated based on the best and most current data available. Data used in the current effort include 2000 United States Census results, ARC annual estimates of population (using the building permit method from 2000 Census base) for superdistricts and census tracts, ARC annual estimates of employment by industry for superdistricts, tracts and TAZs from the state of Georgia unemployment insurance base file. National forecasts of employment and population were derived from the REMI Policy Insight+ model. The results of ARC travel surveys included the SMARTRAQ household travel survey, transit on-board survey, Hartsfield air passenger survey, travel time studies, speed studies, and others. Highway projects and the schedule for their completion (primary inputs to the Cube/TP+ model) are developed as part of an extensive discussion between ARC staff, local planners, Georgia Department of Transportation and various federal agencies.

The area modeled by ARC for transportation/air quality purposes expanded from ten (10) to twenty (20) counties over the last 15 years. The 2010 Census and federal conformity analysis requirements may result in further expansion of the nonattainment area. To meet current and future data needs, ARC produced employment estimates by county and census block group for the state of Georgia beginning in 2008, and continues to produce these estimates annually. The counties covered by land-use data produced in the LandPro program is expanded as needed. ARC's population estimates' program area will be expanded as required, from the current 20 counties, using the 2010 Census as a data baseline.

ARC produced tract-level 2010 estimates of population and 2009 small-area estimates of employment for the 20-county study area to support initial iterations of the TAZ-D model. Development of the annual estimates and of the year 2000 calibration database for the nonmember counties was coordinated with the affected county governments and the Regional Development Centers of which they are members.

Post processing adjustments are made to the ARC forecasts to account for expected large scale changes and policy priorities that would not be reflected in historical data. Events such as expected construction of a new highway or policy input restricting development within the region are accounted for directly in the models with the spatial influence layers or density limitations. Factors such as expected job and household growth from the completion of a major development project (i.e. Atlantic Station) or transit-oriented development are incorporated as post processing adjustments to the model output.

The forecasts will be used as part of the 2011 RTP (Plan2040/FY 2012-2017 TIP), scheduled for adoption in August 2011.