Document ID: FDA-2009-P-0405-0009
Agency: fda
Document Type: Supporting & Related Material
Title: 
Posted Date: 2009-09-30T04:00Z

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<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:134.30pt;top:131.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Harvard Risk Assessment of Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy Update
</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:284.65pt;top:150.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Phase IA
</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:228.00pt;top:169.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Supplemental Simulation Results
</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:253.80pt;top:207.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Joshua T. Cohen, Ph.D.
</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:231.95pt;top:245.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Harvard Center for Risk Analysis
</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:262.70pt;top:283.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">December 26, 2006
</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:296.40pt;top:737.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:302.65pt;top:735.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">1 </FONT></FONT><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 14.04pt">­
</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
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<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.00pt;top:866.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Table of Contents</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.00pt;top:898.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 14.04pt">1</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.00pt;top:898.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 14.04pt">Introduction .......................................................................................... 3
</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.00pt;top:926.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 14.04pt">2</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.00pt;top:926.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 14.04pt">Methodology......................................................................................... 3
</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.00pt;top:941.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 12.00pt">2.1</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.00pt;top:941.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 12.00pt">Changes to the Base Case ........................................................................... 3
</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.00pt;top:955.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">2.1.1</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:198.00pt;top:955.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Antemortem Inspection............................................................................ 3
</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.00pt;top:968.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">2.1.2</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:198.00pt;top:968.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Recycling of Poultry Litter....................................................................... 4
</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.00pt;top:980.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 12.00pt">2.2</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.00pt;top:980.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 12.00pt">Alternative Scenarios.................................................................................. 5
</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.00pt;top:994.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 12.00pt">2.3</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.00pt;top:994.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 12.00pt">Sensitivity Analyses.................................................................................... 6
</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:296.40pt;top:1529.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:302.65pt;top:1527.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">2 </FONT></FONT><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 14.04pt">­
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<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:161pt;top:2170pt;width:270pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:431pt;top:2170pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:432pt;top:2170pt;width:47pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:479pt;top:2170pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:479pt;top:2170pt;width:47pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:161pt;top:2196pt;width:270pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:161pt;top:2197pt;width:270pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:431pt;top:2196pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:431pt;top:2197pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:433pt;top:2196pt;width:46pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:433pt;top:2197pt;width:46pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:479pt;top:2196pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:479pt;top:2197pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:480pt;top:2196pt;width:46pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:480pt;top:2197pt;width:46pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:161pt;top:2248pt;width:270pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:431pt;top:2248pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:432pt;top:2248pt;width:47pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:479pt;top:2248pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:479pt;top:2248pt;width:47pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.00pt;top:1659.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 14.04pt">1	</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.00pt;top:1659.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 14.04pt">Introduction</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.00pt;top:1692.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">In response to the discovery of a BSE-infected cow in Washington State in December</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.00pt;top:1711.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">2003, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Food Safety Inspection Service (FSIS)</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.00pt;top:1730.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">commissioned the Harvard Center for Risk Analysis (HCRA) to use the Harvard Bovine</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.00pt;top:1749.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Spongiform Encephelopathy (BSE) simulation model to investigate the impact of alternative</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.00pt;top:1768.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">measures to mitigate exposure of the human population to the BSE agent.  FSIS released the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.00pt;top:1787.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">HCRA analysis in October 2005 and presented the findings of that analysis at a technical meeting</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.00pt;top:1806.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">open to the public in July 2006.  FSIS subsequently received public comments on the HCRA</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.00pt;top:1825.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">analysis.  As part of its response to those public comments, FSIS contracted for further analysis</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.00pt;top:1844.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">using the Harvard BSE simulation model.  This report describes those analyses.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.00pt;top:1882.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 14.04pt">2	</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.00pt;top:1882.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 14.04pt">Methodology</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.00pt;top:1916.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 12.00pt">2.1	</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.00pt;top:1916.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 12.00pt">Changes to the Base Case</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.00pt;top:1948.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The base case was revised as follows:</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.00pt;top:1988.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Symbol" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">•	</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.00pt;top:1986.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Antemortem </FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">inspection – FSIS decreased the assumed probability that animals</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.00pt;top:1999.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">with clinical signs of BSE would be detected at </FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">antemortem </FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">inspection (Section</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.00pt;top:2012.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">2.1.1)</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.00pt;top:2037.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Symbol" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">•	</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.00pt;top:2036.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Poultry litter pathway for feed contamination – The simulation has been revised</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.00pt;top:2049.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">so that it now explicitly models contamination of cattle feed as a result of the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.00pt;top:2061.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">recycling of poultry litter (Section 2.1.2).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.00pt;top:2104.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">2.1.1	</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.00pt;top:2104.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Antemortem Inspection</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.00pt;top:2135.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Table 1 summarizes changes made to assumptions related to </FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">antemortem </FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">inspection.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:167.40pt;top:2173.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Assumption</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:446.90pt;top:2173.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Old</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:493.10pt;top:2173.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">New</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:443.15pt;top:2186.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">value</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:490.90pt;top:2186.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">value</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:167.40pt;top:2200.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Probability of detecting BSE signs in animals that have</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:445.70pt;top:2200.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">95%</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:493.45pt;top:2200.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">50%</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:167.40pt;top:2213.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">reached the clinical stage of the disease – Ambulatory</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:167.40pt;top:2225.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Probability of detecting BSE signs in animals that have</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:445.70pt;top:2225.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">85%</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:493.45pt;top:2225.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">25%</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:167.40pt;top:2238.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">reached the clinical stage of the disease – Non-ambulatory</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:296.40pt;top:2321.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:302.65pt;top:2319.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">3 </FONT></FONT><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 14.04pt">­
</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
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<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:84pt;top:2706pt;width:203pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:287pt;top:2706pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:288pt;top:2706pt;width:238pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:287pt;top:2719pt;width:79pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:367pt;top:2719pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:367pt;top:2719pt;width:79pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:447pt;top:2719pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:447pt;top:2719pt;width:79pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN 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STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:368pt;top:2784pt;width:38pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:407pt;top:2783pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:407pt;top:2784pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:408pt;top:2783pt;width:38pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:408pt;top:2784pt;width:38pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:447pt;top:2783pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:447pt;top:2784pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:448pt;top:2783pt;width:38pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:448pt;top:2784pt;width:38pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:487pt;top:2783pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:487pt;top:2784pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:488pt;top:2783pt;width:38pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:488pt;top:2784pt;width:38pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:84pt;top:2848pt;width:203pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:287pt;top:2848pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:288pt;top:2848pt;width:39pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:327pt;top:2848pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:328pt;top:2848pt;width:39pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:367pt;top:2848pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:367pt;top:2848pt;width:39pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:407pt;top:2848pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:407pt;top:2848pt;width:39pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:447pt;top:2848pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:447pt;top:2848pt;width:39pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:487pt;top:2848pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:487pt;top:2848pt;width:39pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:90pt;top:3061pt;width:144pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:252.25pt;top:2448.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">1</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.00pt;top:2450.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">2.1.2</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.00pt;top:2450.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Recycling of Poultry Litter</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.00pt;top:2481.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The simulation model assumes that a user-specified proportion of the meat and bone meal</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.00pt;top:2500.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(MBM) produced is used in poultry feed, and a user-specified proportion of poultry litter is</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.00pt;top:2519.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">administered to cattle.  The model assumes that 100% of infectivity in poultry feed ends up in</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.00pt;top:2538.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">poultry litter.  As a result, the proportion of MBM infectivity that ends up in cattle feed via this</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.00pt;top:2556.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">pathway is the product of the proportion of MBM sent to poultry feed producers, and the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.00pt;top:2575.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">proportion of poultry litter that is used in cattle feed.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.00pt;top:2613.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Table 2 details the assumed disposition of MBM, based on the type of MBM producer</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.00pt;top:2632.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">and the type of material.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:288.35pt;top:2671.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Table 2
</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:258.25pt;top:2683.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Disposition of MBM
</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:321.10pt;top:2709.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Type of Renderer and Type of MBM</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:302.75pt;top:2722.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Prohibited</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:396.00pt;top:2722.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Non-</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:459.10pt;top:2722.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Mixed Type</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:303.10pt;top:2735.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Ingredient</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:382.55pt;top:2735.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Prohibited</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:462.70pt;top:2735.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Ingredient</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:305.50pt;top:2747.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Renderer</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:382.90pt;top:2747.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Ingredient</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:465.10pt;top:2747.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Renderer</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:385.30pt;top:2760.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Renderer</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:304.55pt;top:2773.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">P</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:336.35pt;top:2773.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">NP</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:351.10pt;top:2771.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">(b)</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:384.35pt;top:2773.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">P</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:420.35pt;top:2773.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">NP</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:464.15pt;top:2773.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">P</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:500.15pt;top:2773.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">NP</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.00pt;top:2787.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">P Feed Producer (excluding poultry feed)</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:297.85pt;top:2787.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">50%</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:337.80pt;top:2787.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">50%</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:375.95pt;top:2787.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">NA</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:391.80pt;top:2785.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">(a)</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:417.60pt;top:2787.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">50%</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:457.45pt;top:2787.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">50%</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:497.40pt;top:2787.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">50%</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.00pt;top:2800.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">NP Feed Producer</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.60pt;top:2800.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">0%</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:337.80pt;top:2800.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">10%</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:375.95pt;top:2800.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">NA</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:391.80pt;top:2798.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">(a)</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:417.60pt;top:2800.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">10%</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:460.20pt;top:2800.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">0%</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:497.40pt;top:2800.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">10%</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.00pt;top:2812.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Mixed Feed Producer</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.60pt;top:2812.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">5%</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:337.80pt;top:2812.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">10%</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:375.95pt;top:2812.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">NA</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:391.80pt;top:2810.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">(a)</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:417.60pt;top:2812.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">10%</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:460.20pt;top:2812.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">5%</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:497.40pt;top:2812.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">10%</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.00pt;top:2825.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Poultry Feed Producer</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:297.85pt;top:2825.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">40%</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:340.55pt;top:2825.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">0%</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:375.95pt;top:2825.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">NA</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:391.80pt;top:2823.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">(a)</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:420.35pt;top:2825.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">0%</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:457.45pt;top:2825.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">40%</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:500.15pt;top:2825.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">0%</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.00pt;top:2838.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Out (Unavailable to U.S. Cattle)</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.60pt;top:2838.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">5%</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:337.80pt;top:2838.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">30%</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:375.95pt;top:2838.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">NA</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:391.80pt;top:2835.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">(a)</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:417.60pt;top:2838.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">30%</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:460.20pt;top:2838.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">5%</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:497.40pt;top:2838.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">30%</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.00pt;top:2870.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Abbreviations: P – prohibited, NP – non-prohibited</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.00pt;top:2908.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><i><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Notes:</FONT></FONT></i></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.00pt;top:2908.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><i><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">(a)</FONT></FONT></i></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.00pt;top:2908.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><i><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">This analysis assumes no product from a non-prohibited renderer is labeled as prohibited</FONT></FONT></i></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.00pt;top:2931.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><i><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">(b)</FONT></FONT></i></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.00pt;top:2931.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><i><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">Prohibited ingredient renderers may produce feed that is mislabeled as non-prohibited.</FONT></FONT></i></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.00pt;top:2961.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Of the infectivity that ends up in poultry feed and ultimately in poultry litter, this analysis</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.00pt;top:2980.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">assumes that 1% is used in cattle feed.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:95.75pt;top:3075.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">This section draws on material prepared by Joshua Cohen (Tufts-New England Medical Center) for the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.00pt;top:3086.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 9.96pt">USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:296.40pt;top:3113.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:302.65pt;top:3111.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">4 </FONT></FONT><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 14.04pt">­
</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.00pt;top:3072.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.48pt">1</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:3168.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.00pt;top:3242.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 12.00pt">2.2	</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.00pt;top:3242.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 12.00pt">Alternative Scenarios</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.00pt;top:3274.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Because assumptions embedded in the base case influence the alternative scenarios,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.00pt;top:3293.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">USDA FSIS re-ran the simulation for several of the scenarios central to its original evaluation.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.00pt;top:3312.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The October 2005 Harvard BSE Update includes the following three scenarios, all of which have</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.00pt;top:3331.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">been re-run.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.00pt;top:3371.05pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Symbol" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">•	</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.00pt;top:3369.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">USDA A </FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">– Ban on slaughter for human consumption of all non-ambulatory</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.00pt;top:3382.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">disabled cattle (Federal Register: January 12, 2004 (Volume 69, Number 7 Pages</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.00pt;top:3395.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">1861-1874)).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.00pt;top:3420.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Symbol" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">•	</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.00pt;top:3419.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">USDA B </FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">– Prohibition for human consumption of brain, skull, eyes, trigeminal</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.00pt;top:3432.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">ganglia, spinal cord, vertebral column, and dorsal root ganglia of cattle 30</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.00pt;top:3444.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">months of age or older, as well as small intestine and tonsils of all cattle (Federal</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.00pt;top:3457.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Register: January 12, 2004 (Volume 69, Number 7 Page 1861-1874)).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.00pt;top:3483.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Symbol" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">•	</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.00pt;top:3481.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">USDA A and USDA B.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.00pt;top:3524.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">In addition to these scenarios, the following additional alternative scenarios have been evaluated</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.00pt;top:3543.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">using the Harvard BSE simulation model:</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.00pt;top:3583.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Symbol" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">•	</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.00pt;top:3582.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">USDA B12 </FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">and </FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">USDA B24</FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">– Identical to USDA B, except that the prohibition</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.00pt;top:3594.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">applies to animals 12 months of age and older, or 24 months of age and older,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.00pt;top:3607.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">respectively.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.00pt;top:3633.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Symbol" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">•	</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.00pt;top:3631.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">USDA B, 90% compliance, 95% compliance, and 99% compliance  </FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">– Identical to</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.00pt;top:3644.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">USDA B, except that compliance is assumed to 90%, 95%, or 99%, respectively.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.00pt;top:3657.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Table 3 details the proportion of key tissue groups assumed to be allowed into the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.00pt;top:3669.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">human food supply.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:296.40pt;top:3905.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:302.65pt;top:3903.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">5 </FONT></FONT><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 14.04pt">­
</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;left:71.76pt;top:3960.00pt"> </SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:84pt;top:4069pt;width:140pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:224pt;top:4069pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:225pt;top:4069pt;width:60pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:285pt;top:4069pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:285pt;top:4069pt;width:241pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:285pt;top:4083pt;width:60pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:345pt;top:4083pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:346pt;top:4083pt;width:60pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:406pt;top:4083pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:406pt;top:4083pt;width:60pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:466pt;top:4083pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:467pt;top:4083pt;width:60pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:84pt;top:4096pt;width:140pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:84pt;top:4097pt;width:140pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:224pt;top:4096pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:224pt;top:4097pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:226pt;top:4096pt;width:59pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:226pt;top:4097pt;width:59pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:285pt;top:4096pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:285pt;top:4097pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:286pt;top:4096pt;width:59pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:286pt;top:4097pt;width:59pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:345pt;top:4096pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:345pt;top:4097pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:347pt;top:4096pt;width:59pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:347pt;top:4097pt;width:59pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:406pt;top:4096pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:406pt;top:4097pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:407pt;top:4096pt;width:59pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:407pt;top:4097pt;width:59pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:466pt;top:4096pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:466pt;top:4097pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:468pt;top:4096pt;width:59pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:468pt;top:4097pt;width:59pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:84pt;top:4123pt;width:140pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:84pt;top:4174pt;width:140pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:84pt;top:4238pt;width:140pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:224pt;top:4238pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:225pt;top:4238pt;width:60pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:285pt;top:4238pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:285pt;top:4238pt;width:60pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:345pt;top:4238pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:346pt;top:4238pt;width:60pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:406pt;top:4238pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:406pt;top:4238pt;width:60pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:466pt;top:4238pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:467pt;top:4238pt;width:60pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:288.35pt;top:4034.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Table 3
</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:175.30pt;top:4047.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Assumed Proportion of Tissue Allowed In Human Food
</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:364.45pt;top:4072.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">USDA Scenario B
</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:139.70pt;top:4086.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Tissue</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:231.50pt;top:4086.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Base Case</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:304.70pt;top:4086.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">90%</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:365.15pt;top:4086.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">95%</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:425.65pt;top:4086.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">99%</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:483.35pt;top:4086.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">100%</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.00pt;top:4112.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">All Ages</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.00pt;top:4125.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Gut (all ages)</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.00pt;top:4138.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Tonsils (all ages)</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:245.50pt;top:4125.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">0.01</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:240.00pt;top:4138.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">0.0046</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:303.25pt;top:4125.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">0.001</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:297.70pt;top:4138.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">0.00046</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:360.95pt;top:4125.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">0.0005</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:358.20pt;top:4138.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">0.00023</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:421.45pt;top:4125.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">0.0001</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:415.90pt;top:4138.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">0.000046</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:494.40pt;top:4125.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">0</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:494.40pt;top:4138.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">0</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.00pt;top:4164.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Age</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:111.25pt;top:4166.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Symbol" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">≥≥≥≥</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:120.00pt;top:4164.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">30 Months</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.00pt;top:4177.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Brain</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.00pt;top:4190.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Spinal Cord</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.00pt;top:4203.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Eyes</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.00pt;top:4215.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">AMR Meat</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.00pt;top:4228.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Beef on bone</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:245.50pt;top:4177.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">0.01</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:245.50pt;top:4190.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">0.01</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:242.75pt;top:4203.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">0.001</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:245.50pt;top:4215.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">0.98</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:245.50pt;top:4228.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">0.25</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:303.25pt;top:4177.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">0.001</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:303.25pt;top:4190.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">0.001</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:300.50pt;top:4203.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">0.0001</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:303.25pt;top:4215.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">0.098</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:303.25pt;top:4228.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">0.025</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:360.95pt;top:4177.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">0.0005</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:360.95pt;top:4190.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">0.0005</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:358.20pt;top:4203.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">0.00005</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:363.70pt;top:4215.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">0.049</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:360.95pt;top:4228.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">0.0125</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:421.45pt;top:4177.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">0.0001</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:421.45pt;top:4190.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">0.0001</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:418.70pt;top:4203.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">0.00001</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:421.45pt;top:4215.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">0.0098</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:421.45pt;top:4228.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">0.0025</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:494.40pt;top:4177.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">0</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:494.40pt;top:4190.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">0</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:494.40pt;top:4203.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">0</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:494.40pt;top:4215.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">0</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:494.40pt;top:4228.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">0</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.00pt;top:4260.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 12.00pt">2.3	</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.00pt;top:4260.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 12.00pt">Sensitivity Analyses</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.00pt;top:4292.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Because assumptions embedded in the base case influence the sensitivity analyses,</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.00pt;top:4311.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">USDA FSIS re-ran the simulation for several of the key analyses.  The October 2005 Harvard</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.00pt;top:4330.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">BSE Update includes the following three sensitivity analyses, all of which have been re-run.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.00pt;top:4370.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Symbol" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">•	</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.00pt;top:4368.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Sensitivity 1 </FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">– Mislabeling and contamination – We have revised the base case</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.00pt;top:4381.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">values for these parameters to take into account new data on compliance rates.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.00pt;top:4394.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">The sensitivity analyses evaluate the impact of replacing these assumptions with</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.00pt;top:4407.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">the more pessimistic base case assumptions from Harvard’s October, 2003 report.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.00pt;top:4419.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">In particular, we increase the mislabeling rates to 5% for both MBM and feed</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.00pt;top:4432.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">production.  We increase contamination rates increased to 14% (MBM</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.00pt;top:4444.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">production) and 16% (feed production).</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.00pt;top:4470.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Symbol" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">•	</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.00pt;top:4469.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Sensitivity 2 </FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">– Misfeeding – Misfeeding rate increased to 15%.  This worst case</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.00pt;top:4482.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">value is the same as the worst case value used in Harvard’s October, 2003 report.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.00pt;top:4507.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Symbol" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">•	</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.00pt;top:4506.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Sensitivity 6 </FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">– Incubation period – we expand the incubation period distribution</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.00pt;top:4519.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">(detailed in Section 3.1.1.6 in Cohen </FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">et al</FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">. (2003a)) by doubling the value of each</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:296.15pt;top:4529.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">th</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.00pt;top:4531.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">percentile.  For example, the 5 percentile is doubled from a base case value of</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.00pt;top:4544.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">2.5 years to 5 years, the median is increased from a value of approximately 4</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:282.10pt;top:4554.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 6.96pt">th</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.00pt;top:4557.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">years to 8 years, and the 95 percentile is increased from a value of 7 years to</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.00pt;top:4569.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">approximately 14 years.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.00pt;top:4612.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">FSIS has also included the following sensitivity analyses:</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.00pt;top:4633.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Symbol" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">•	</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.00pt;top:4632.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Sensitivity 5 </FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">– </FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Antemortem </FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">inspection – We make the </FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">antemortem </FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">inspector less</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.00pt;top:4644.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">effective at identifying cattle with clinical BSE signs.  The </FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">antemortem </FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">inspector</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.00pt;top:4657.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">detects none of animals, regardless of ambulatory status.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:296.40pt;top:4697.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:302.65pt;top:4695.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">6 </FONT></FONT><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 14.04pt">­
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<SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:84pt;top:5047pt;width:86pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:170pt;top:5047pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:171pt;top:5047pt;width:355pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:84pt;top:5072pt;width:86pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:84pt;top:5073pt;width:86pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:170pt;top:5072pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:170pt;top:5073pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:172pt;top:5072pt;width:355pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:172pt;top:5073pt;width:355pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:84pt;top:5276pt;width:86pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:170pt;top:5276pt;width: 1pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="position:absolute;font-size:0;left:171pt;top:5276pt;width:355pt;height: 1pt;background-color:#000000;"></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.00pt;top:4883.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 14.04pt">3</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.00pt;top:4828.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Symbol" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">•</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.00pt;top:4827.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Sensitivity 9 </FONT></i><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">– Poultry Litter Recycling – We assume that 5% of poultry litter is</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:162.00pt;top:4839.85pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">used as cattle feed, rather than 1%, as in the base case.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.00pt;top:4883.10pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 14.04pt">Results</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:126.00pt;top:4916.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Results appear in Appendix 2 and 3 to this report.  In order to facilitate reference to the</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.00pt;top:4935.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">contents of the October 2005 Harvard BSE Update report, these appendices retain the numbering</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.00pt;top:4954.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">scheme from that report to the extent possible.  Table 4 summarizes the correspondence between</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:90.00pt;top:4973.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">this numbering scheme and the scenarios run.</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:288.35pt;top:5011.60pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Table 4
</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:180.70pt;top:5024.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Numbering of Scenarios in Appendices to this Report
</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:110.65pt;top:5050.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Section</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:328.70pt;top:5050.00pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Scenario</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:108.10pt;top:5062.70pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Number</FONT></FONT></b></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:125.05pt;top:5076.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">1</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:176.40pt;top:5076.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Base Case</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:116.75pt;top:5089.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">2.1.1</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:176.40pt;top:5089.35pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">USDA A: Ban on Non-Ambulatory Animals to Human Food</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:114.25pt;top:5101.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">2.1.2a</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:176.40pt;top:5101.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">USDA B: 12 Month Comprehensive SRM (Food Only) – 100% Compliance</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:114.00pt;top:5114.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">2.1.2b</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:176.40pt;top:5114.65pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">USDA B: 24 Month Comprehensive SRM (Food Only) – 100% Compliance</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:114.25pt;top:5127.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">2.1.2c</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:176.40pt;top:5127.25pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">USDA B: 30 Month Comprehensive SRM (Food Only) – 100% Compliance</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:114.00pt;top:5139.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">2.1.2d</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:176.40pt;top:5139.95pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">USDA B: 30 Month Comprehensive SRM (Food Only) – 90% Compliance</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:114.25pt;top:5152.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">2.1.2e</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:176.40pt;top:5152.55pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">USDA B: 30 Month Comprehensive SRM (Food Only) – 95% Compliance</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:114.85pt;top:5165.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">2.1.2f</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:176.40pt;top:5165.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">USDA B: 30 Month Comprehensive SRM (Food Only) – 99% Compliance</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:116.75pt;top:5177.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">2.1.4</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:176.40pt;top:5177.90pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Combined USDA Scenarios:</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:176.40pt;top:5190.50pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">A: Ban on Non-Ambulatory Animals to Human Food</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:176.40pt;top:5203.20pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">B: 30 Month Comprehensive SRM (Food Only) – 100% Compliance</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:120.85pt;top:5215.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">3.1</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:176.40pt;top:5215.80pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Sensitivity 1: Pessimistic - Mislabeling and Contamination</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:120.85pt;top:5228.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">3.2</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:176.40pt;top:5228.40pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Sensitivity 2: Pessimistic – Misfeeding</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:120.85pt;top:5241.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">3.5</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:176.40pt;top:5241.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Sensitivity 5: Less Effective AM Inspection</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:120.85pt;top:5253.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">3.6</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:176.40pt;top:5253.75pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Sensitivity 6: Longer Incubation Period</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:120.85pt;top:5266.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">3.9</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:176.40pt;top:5266.45pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">Sensitivity 9: High Poultry Recycling Rate (5%)</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:296.40pt;top:5489.30pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">-</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN>
<SPAN STYLE="color:#000000;position:absolute;left:302.65pt;top:5487.15pt;z-index:3;"><FONT FACE ="Times New Roman" style = "font-size: 12.00pt"><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 11.04pt">7 </FONT></FONT><b><FONT COLOR="000000"><FONT STYLE="font-size: 14.04pt">­
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