Document ID: EPA-HQ-OW-2002-0049-0493
Agency: epa
Document Type: Supporting & Related Material
Title: 
Posted Date: 2003-06-19T04:00Z

Addendum
to
Section
316(
b)
Phase
II
NODA
 
Economic
Impacts
June
3,
2003
Page
1
1
For
more
information
see
Federal
Register,
Vol.
68,
No.
53,
published
Wednesday,
March
19,
2003,
Section
V
(
pages
13527­
13534).
Memorandum
Date
June
3,
2003
To
The
Record
From
Lynne
Tudor,
OW/
EPA,
and
Antje
Siems
and
Dan
Rosenfeld,
Abt
Associates
Inc.

Subject
Addendum
to
the
Section
316(
b)
Phase
II
NODA
 
Results
for
Two
Additional
IPM
Analyses
In
the
Notice
of
Data
Availability
(
NODA)
for
the
Section
316(
b)
Phase
II
Rule,
published
in
the
Federal
Register
on
Wednesday,
March
19,
2003,
EPA
presented
the
results
of
two
electricity
market
model
analyses.
These
analyses
were
completed
using
two
different
base
cases
with
different
electricity
demand
growth
assumptions:
the
analysis
for
the
preferred
option
used
EPA's
electricity
demand
growth
assumptions
while
the
analysis
for
the
waterbody/
capacity­
based
option
used
higher
electricity
demand
growth
assumptions
based
on
the
Department
of
Energy's
Annual
Energy
Outlook
(
AEO).
Because
of
the
different
base
cases,
the
results
for
the
two
options
were
not
directly
comparable.
Footnote
8
of
the
NODA
announced
that
"
EPA
is
currently
completing
additional
IPM
runs
and
will
develop
analyses
of
both
options
using
both
base
cases."
1
This
memorandum
presents
the
results
of
these
two
additional
runs,
using
the
Integrated
Planning
Model
2000
(
IPM
®
2000).
It
is
organized
as
follows:

<
Section
I
presents
the
results
for
the
preferred
option,
using
electricity
demand
growth
assumptions
based
on
the
AEO.

<
Section
II
presents
the
results
for
the
waterbody/
capacity­
based
option,
using
EPA's
electricity
demand
growth
assumptions.

Each
section
also
contains
a
brief
comparison
of
the
new
results
with
the
results
for
the
same
option
using
the
other
base
case
(
as
presented
in
the
NODA).

I.
IPM
Results
for
the
Preferred
Option
(
AEO
Assumptions)

The
first
additional
analysis
reflects
the
compliance
requirements
of
the
preferred
option
and
electricity
demand
growth
assumptions
based
on
the
Annual
Energy
Outlook
(
AEO)
2001
forecast.
For
a
description
of
the
preferred
option
and
for
further
explanation
of
the
two
base
cases
see
Chapters
A1
and
the
Appendix
to
Chapter
B8,

respectively,
of
the
Economic
and
Benefits
Analysis
(
EBA)
document
as
published
for
the
proposed
rule
(
DCN
4­
Addendum
to
Section
316(
b)
Phase
II
NODA
 
Economic
Impacts
June
3,
2003
Page
2
2
For
the
NODA,
EPA
conducted
one
additional
analysis
of
results
in
2008,
a
year
during
which
some
facilities
come
into
compliance
and
experience
installation
downtimes.
This
analysis
was
done
to
determine
if
downtimes
would
impose
greater
short­
term
impacts
on
market­
level
characteristics,
e.
g.,
prices.
The
equivalent
results
for
this
analysis
are
not
presented
in
this
memorandum
but
are
available
in
the
docket
materials
(
DCN
5­
3121).

3
The
twelve
NERC
regions
presented
are:
ASCC
(
Alaska
Systems
Coordinating
Council),
ECAR
(
East
Central
Area
Reliability
Coordination
Agreement),
ERCOT
(
Electric
Reliability
Council
of
Texas),
FRCC
(
Florida
Reliability
Coordinating
Council),
HI
(
Hawaii),
MAAC
(
Mid
Atlantic
Area
Council),
MAIN
(
Mid­
America
Interconnected
Network,
Inc.),
MAPP
(
Mid­
Continent
Area
Power
Pool),
NPCC
(
Northeast
Power
Coordination
Council),
SERC
(
Southeastern
Electricity
Reliability
Council),
SPP
(
Southwest
Power
Pool),
and
WSCC
(
Western
Systems
Coordinating
Council).
0002
http://
www.
epa.
gov/
ost/
316b/
econbenefits).

The
following
subsections
present
results
for
(
1)
the
entire
market
(
i.
e.,
all
generators
including
facilities
that
are
in­
scope
and
facilities
that
are
out­
of­
scope
of
Phase
II
regulation);
(
2)
the
in­
scope
Phase
II
facilities
as
a
group;

and
(
3)
individual
Phase
II
facilities.
The
tables
are
equivalent
to
the
tables
for
the
preferred
option
presented
in
the
Notice
and
its
supporting
documents
(
DCN
5­
3002),
except
for
the
change
in
base
cases.
2
I.
1.
Market
Analysis
(
2010)

This
section
presents
the
results
of
the
IPM
analysis
for
all
facilities
modeled
by
the
IPM.
The
market­
level
analysis
includes
results
for
all
generators
located
in
each
North
American
Electric
Reliability
Council
(
NERC)

region
including
facilities
that
are
in­
scope
and
facilities
that
are
out­
of­
scope
of
Phase
II
regulation.
3
Tables
1
and
2
are
equivalent
tables,
respectively,
to
Exhibit
1
of
the
NODA
and
Table
B3­
4
of
EBA
Chapter
B3,
as
updated
for
the
NODA
(
DCN
5­
3002).
While
somewhat
repetitive,
both
tables
are
presented
here
to
allow
for
comparison
with
the
previously
published
materials.
Table
3
repeats
information
from
Table
1
but
adds
the
results
from
Exhibit
1
of
the
NODA.
This
table
further
facilitates
comparison
of
the
results
for
the
preferred
option
using
EPA's
and
AEO's
respective
electricity
demand
growth
assumptions.

Table
1
below
(
equivalent
to
NODA
Exhibit
1)
presents
five
measures
used
by
EPA
to
assess
market­
level
impacts
associated
with
the
preferred
option:
(
1)
incremental
capacity
closures,
calculated
as
the
difference
between
capacity
closures
under
the
preferred
option
and
capacity
closures
under
the
base
case;
(
2)
incremental
capacity
closures
as
a
percentage
of
baseline
capacity;
(
3)
post­
compliance
changes
in
variable
production
costs
per
MWh,
calculated
as
the
sum
of
total
fuel
and
variable
O&
M
costs
divided
by
total
generation;
(
4)

postcompliance
changes
in
energy
price,
where
energy
prices
are
defined
as
the
wholesale
prices
received
by
facilities
for
the
sale
of
electric
generation;
and
(
5)
post­
compliance
changes
in
pre­
tax
income,
where
pre­
tax
income
is
defined
as
total
revenues
minus
the
sum
of
fixed
and
variable
O&
M
costs,
fuel
costs,
and
capital
costs.
Addendum
to
Section
316(
b)
Phase
II
NODA
 
Economic
Impacts
June
3,
2003
Page
3
Table
1:
Market­
Level
Impacts
of
the
Preferred
Option
(
2010)

NERC
Region
Baseline
Capacity
(
MW)
Incremental
Capacity
Closures
(
MW)
Closures
as
%
of
Baseline
Capacity
Change
in
Variable
Production
Cost
per
MWh
Change
in
Energy
Price
per
MWh
Change
in
Pre­
Tax
Income
ECAR
127,332
0
0.0%
0.1%
0.0%
­
1.0%

ERCOT
80,472
0
0.0%
­
0.1%
1.2%
­
1.6%

FRCC
53,831
0
0.0%
0.2%
0.5%
­
3.0%

MAAC
68,838
0
0.0%
­
0.2%
0.0%
­
0.7%

MAIN
63,946
1,012
1.6%
1.8%
0.1%
0.2%

MAPP
38,477
0
0.0%
­
0.1%
­
0.7%
­
0.1%

NPCC
76,114
0
0.0%
­
0.3%
0.0%
­
1.6%

SERC
207,945
0
0.0%
­
0.1%
0.0%
­
0.5%

SPP
52,670
0
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
­
0.4%

WSCC
177,780
0
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
­
0.9%

Total
947,406
1,012
0.1%
0.1%
n/
a
­
0.8%

Source:
IPM
analysis:
Model
runs
for
Section
316(
b)
NODA
Base
Case
and
the
preferred
option
(
AEO
electricity
demand).

Table
2
below
(
equivalent
to
EBA
Table
B3­
4)
presents
seven
measures
of
market­
level
impacts
associated
with
the
preferred
option:
(
1)
capacity
changes,
including
changes
in
existing
capacity,
new
additions,
repowering
additions,
and
closures;
(
2)
electricity
price
changes,
including
changes
in
energy
prices
and
capacity
prices;
(
3)

generation
changes;
(
4)
revenue
changes;
(
5)
cost
changes,
including
changes
in
fuel
costs,
variable
O&
M
costs,

fixed
O&
M
costs,
and
capital
costs;
(
6)
changes
in
pre­
tax
income,
defined
as
revenues
minus
total
costs;
and
(
7)

changes
in
variable
production
costs
per
MWh.
For
each
measure,
Table
2
presents
the
results
for
the
base
case
and
the
preferred
option,
the
absolute
difference
between
the
two
cases,
and
the
percentage
difference
by
NERC
region.
A
detailed
description
of
each
of
the
impact
measures
is
presented
in
Section
B3­
3.1
of
Chapter
B3:

Electricity
Market
Model
Analysis
(
DCN
5­
3002).
Addendum
to
Section
316(
b)
Phase
II
NODA
 
Economic
Impacts
June
3,
2003
Page
4
Table
2:
Market­
Level
Impacts
of
the
Preferred
Option
(
2010)

Economic
Measures
Base
Case
WB/
C­
Based
Option
Difference
%
Change
Total
(
1)
Total
Domestic
Capacity
(
MW)
947,406
947,442
36
0.0%

(
1a)
Existing
788,986
787,460
(
1,526)
­
0.2%

(
1b)
New
Additions
133,162
133,697
535
0.4%

(
1c)
Repowering
Additions
25,258
26,285
1,027
4.1%

(
1d)
Closures
10,203
11,215
1,012
9.9%

(
2a)
Energy
Price
($
2002/
MWh)
n/
a
n/
a
n/
a
n/
a
(
2b)
Capacity
Price
($
2002/
KW/
yr)
n/
a
n/
a
n/
a
n/
a
(
3)
Generation
(
GWh)
4,400,321
4,400,759
438
0.0%

(
4)
Revenues
(
Millions;
$
2002)
$
156,989
$
156,999
$
10
0.0%

(
5)
Costs
(
Millions;
$
2002)
$
98,824
$
99,318
$
494
0.5%

(
5a)
Fuel
Cost
$
53,473
$
53,506
$
33
0.1%

(
5b)
Variable
O&
M
$
8,320
$
8,330
$
10
0.1%

(
5c)
Fixed
O&
M
$
24,485
$
24,862
$
378
1.5%

(
5d)
Capital
Cost
$
12,547
$
12,620
$
74
0.6%

(
6)
Pre­
Tax
Income
(
Millions;
$
2002)
$
58,165
$
57,681
($
484)
­
0.8%

(
7)
Variable
Production
Costs
($
2002/
MWh)
$
14.70
$
14.72
$
0.02
0.1%

ECAR
(
1)
Total
Domestic
Capacity
(
MW)
127,332
127,083
(
248)
­
0.2%

(
1a)
Existing
110,034
110,034
0
0.0%

(
1b)
New
Additions
17,228
16,980
(
248)
­
1.4%

(
1c)
Repowering
Additions
70
70
0
0.0%

(
1d)
Closures
0
0
0
0.0%

(
2a)
Energy
Price
($
2002/
MWh)
$
24.82
$
24.82
$
0.00
0.0%

(
2b)
Capacity
Price
($
2002/
KW/
yr)
$
54.17
$
54.17
$
0.00
0.0%

(
3)
Generation
(
GWh)
680,905
680,972
67
0.0%

(
4)
Revenues
(
Millions;
$
2002)
$
23,781
$
23,769
($
12)
­
0.1%

(
5)
Costs
(
Millions;
$
2002)
$
13,854
$
13,941
$
87
0.6%
Addendum
to
Section
316(
b)
Phase
II
NODA
 
Economic
Impacts
June
3,
2003
Page
5
Table
2:
Market­
Level
Impacts
of
the
Preferred
Option
(
2010)

Economic
Measures
Base
Case
WB/
C­
Based
Option
Difference
%
Change
(
5a)
Fuel
Cost
$
6,963
$
6,968
$
5
0.1%

(
5b)
Variable
O&
M
$
1,659
$
1,663
$
3
0.2%

(
5c)
Fixed
O&
M
$
3,659
$
3,751
$
92
2.5%

(
5d)
Capital
Cost
$
1,573
$
1,559
($
14)
­
0.9%

(
6)
Pre­
Tax
Income
(
Millions;
$
2002)
$
9,927
$
9,828
($
99)
­
1.0%

(
7)
Variable
Production
Costs
($
2002/
MWh)
$
12.66
$
12.67
$
0.01
0.1%

ERCOT
(
1)
Total
Domestic
Capacity
(
MW)
80,472
80,473
1
0.0%

(
1a)
Existing
69,845
69,398
(
448)
­
0.6%

(
1b)
New
Additions
5,202
4,756
(
446)
­
8.6%

(
1c)
Repowering
Additions
5,425
6,319
895
16.5%

(
1d)
Closures
0
0
0
0.0%

(
2a)
Energy
Price
($
2002/
MWh)
$
27.20
$
27.51
$
0.31
1.2%

(
2b)
Capacity
Price
($
2002/
KW/
yr)
$
35.79
$
32.54
($
3.24)
­
9.1%

(
3)
Generation
(
GWh)
362,415
362,415
0
0.0%

(
4)
Revenues
(
Millions;
$
2002)
$
12,605
$
12,587
($
18)
­
0.1%

(
5)
Costs
(
Millions;
$
2002)
$
9,054
$
9,091
$
37
0.4%

(
5a)
Fuel
Cost
$
5,760
$
5,755
($
5)
­
0.1%

(
5b)
Variable
O&
M
$
719
$
718
($
1)
­
0.2%

(
5c)
Fixed
O&
M
$
1,783
$
1,807
$
23
1.3%

(
5d)
Capital
Cost
$
791
$
811
$
20
2.5%

(
6)
Pre­
Tax
Income
(
Millions;
$
2002)
$
3,551
$
3,496
($
55)
­
1.6%

(
7)
Variable
Production
Costs
($
2002/
MWh)
$
17.88
$
17.86
($
0.02)
­
0.1%

FRCC
(
1)
Total
Domestic
Capacity
(
MW)
53,832
53,832
0
0.0%

(
1a)
Existing
39,238
39,238
0
0.0%

(
1b)
New
Additions
14,594
14,593
0
0.0%

(
1c)
Repowering
Additions
0
0
0
0.0%
Addendum
to
Section
316(
b)
Phase
II
NODA
 
Economic
Impacts
June
3,
2003
Page
6
Table
2:
Market­
Level
Impacts
of
the
Preferred
Option
(
2010)

Economic
Measures
Base
Case
WB/
C­
Based
Option
Difference
%
Change
(
1d)
Closures
812
812
0
0.0%

(
2a)
Energy
Price
($
2002/
MWh)
$
30.19
$
30.34
$
0.16
0.5%

(
2b)
Capacity
Price
($
2002/
KW/
yr)
$
42.38
$
36.49
($
5.90)
­
13.9%

(
3)
Generation
(
GWh)
204,711
204,696
(
14)
0.0%

(
4)
Revenues
(
Millions;
$
2002)
$
8,194
$
8,175
($
19)
­
0.2%

(
5)
Costs
(
Millions;
$
2002)
$
6,104
$
6,149
$
45
0.7%

(
5a)
Fuel
Cost
$
3,472
$
3,475
$
3
0.1%

(
5b)
Variable
O&
M
$
393
$
397
$
4
1.0%

(
5c)
Fixed
O&
M
$
1,237
$
1,275
$
38
3.1%

(
5d)
Capital
Cost
$
1,001
$
1,002
$
1
0.1%

(
6)
Pre­
Tax
Income
(
Millions;
$
2002)
$
2,090
$
2,027
($
64)
­
3.0%

(
7)
Variable
Production
Costs
($
2002/
MWh)
$
18.88
$
18.92
$
0.03
0.2%

MAAC
(
1)
Total
Domestic
Capacity
(
MW)
68,838
68,821
(
17)
0.0%

(
1a)
Existing
57,461
57,461
0
0.0%

(
1b)
New
Additions
9,719
9,701
(
17)
­
0.2%

(
1c)
Repowering
Additions
1,658
1,658
0
0.0%

(
1d)
Closures
1,725
1,725
0
0.0%

(
2a)
Energy
Price
($
2002/
MWh)
$
27.99
$
28.00
$
0.01
0.0%

(
2b)
Capacity
Price
($
2002/
KW/
yr)
$
52.52
$
50.92
($
1.60)
­
3.0%

(
3)
Generation
(
GWh)
299,588
299,389
(
199)
­
0.1%

(
4)
Revenues
(
Millions;
$
2002)
$
11,894
$
11,886
($
8)
­
0.1%

(
5)
Costs
(
Millions;
$
2002)
$
7,085
$
7,111
$
26
0.4%

(
5a)
Fuel
Cost
$
3,482
$
3,471
($
11)
­
0.3%

(
5b)
Variable
O&
M
$
596
$
595
$
0
0.0%

(
5c)
Fixed
O&
M
$
2,123
$
2,159
$
37
1.7%

(
5d)
Capital
Cost
$
884
$
885
$
1
0.1%

(
6)
Pre­
Tax
Income
(
Millions;
$
2002)
$
4,809
$
4,775
($
34)
­
0.7%
Addendum
to
Section
316(
b)
Phase
II
NODA
 
Economic
Impacts
June
3,
2003
Page
7
Table
2:
Market­
Level
Impacts
of
the
Preferred
Option
(
2010)

Economic
Measures
Base
Case
WB/
C­
Based
Option
Difference
%
Change
(
7)
Variable
Production
Costs
($
2002/
MWh)
$
13.61
$
13.58
($
0.03)
­
0.2%

MAIN
(
1)
Total
Domestic
Capacity
(
MW)
63,946
63,875
(
72)
­
0.1%

(
1a)
Existing
53,659
52,647
(
1,012)
­
1.9%

(
1b)
New
Additions
10,288
11,228
940
9.1%

(
1c)
Repowering
Additions
0
0
0
0.0%

(
1d)
Closures
3,083
4,095
1,012
32.8%

(
2a)
Energy
Price
($
2002/
MWh)
$
23.96
$
23.99
$
0.03
0.1%

(
2b)
Capacity
Price
($
2002/
KW/
yr)
$
56.57
$
54.78
($
1.80)
­
3.2%

(
3)
Generation
(
GWh)
303,096
302,408
(
688)
­
0.2%

(
4)
Revenues
(
Millions;
$
2002)
$
10,721
$
10,749
$
27
0.3%

(
5)
Costs
(
Millions;
$
2002)
$
6,568
$
6,586
$
18
0.3%

(
5a)
Fuel
Cost
$
3,196
$
3,258
$
63
2.0%

(
5b)
Variable
O&
M
$
627
$
623
($
3)
­
0.5%

(
5c)
Fixed
O&
M
$
1,994
$
1,929
($
66)
­
3.3%

(
5d)
Capital
Cost
$
751
$
776
$
24
3.2%

(
6)
Pre­
Tax
Income
(
Millions;
$
2002)
$
4,153
$
4,163
$
10
0.2%

(
7)
Variable
Production
Costs
($
2002/
MWh)
$
12.61
$
12.84
$
0.23
1.8%

MAPP
(
1)
Total
Domestic
Capacity
(
MW)
38,477
38,477
0
0.0%

(
1a)
Existing
32,672
32,672
0
0.0%

(
1b)
New
Additions
5,806
5,806
0
0.0%

(
1c)
Repowering
Additions
0
0
0
0.0%

(
1d)
Closures
476
476
0
0.0%

(
2a)
Energy
Price
($
2002/
MWh)
$
22.94
$
22.79
($
0.15)
­
0.7%

(
2b)
Capacity
Price
($
2002/
KW/
yr)
$
55.99
$
54.85
($
1.15)
­
2.0%

(
3)
Generation
(
GWh)
195,033
195,155
122
0.1%

(
4)
Revenues
(
Millions;
$
2002)
$
6,512
$
6,531
$
19
0.3%
Addendum
to
Section
316(
b)
Phase
II
NODA
 
Economic
Impacts
June
3,
2003
Page
8
Table
2:
Market­
Level
Impacts
of
the
Preferred
Option
(
2010)

Economic
Measures
Base
Case
WB/
C­
Based
Option
Difference
%
Change
(
5)
Costs
(
Millions;
$
2002)
$
3,894
$
3,915
$
21
0.5%

(
5a)
Fuel
Cost
$
1,963
$
1,961
($
2)
­
0.1%

(
5b)
Variable
O&
M
$
398
$
398
$
1
0.1%

(
5c)
Fixed
O&
M
$
1,044
$
1,063
$
19
1.8%

(
5d)
Capital
Cost
$
490
$
493
$
4
0.7%

(
6)
Pre­
Tax
Income
(
Millions;
$
2002)
$
2,618
$
2,616
($
2)
­
0.1%

(
7)
Variable
Production
Costs
($
2002/
MWh)
$
12.10
$
12.09
($
0.01)
­
0.1%

NPCC
(
1)
Total
Domestic
Capacity
(
MW)
76,114
76,116
2
0.0%

(
1a)
Existing
59,678
59,617
(
62)
­
0.1%

(
1b)
New
Additions
5,882
5,823
(
59)
­
1.0%

(
1c)
Repowering
Additions
10,554
10,677
123
1.2%

(
1d)
Closures
4,107
4,107
0
0.0%

(
2a)
Energy
Price
($
2002/
MWh)
$
30.65
$
30.66
$
0.01
0.0%

(
2b)
Capacity
Price
($
2002/
KW/
yr)
$
49.98
$
48.49
($
1.49)
­
3.0%

(
3)
Generation
(
GWh)
302,155
302,296
142
0.0%

(
4)
Revenues
(
Millions;
$
2002)
$
12,689
$
12,684
($
5)
0.0%

(
5)
Costs
(
Millions;
$
2002)
$
8,761
$
8,819
$
57
0.7%

(
5a)
Fuel
Cost
$
5,116
$
5,105
($
11)
­
0.2%

(
5b)
Variable
O&
M
$
402
$
400
($
2)
­
0.5%

(
5c)
Fixed
O&
M
$
1,831
$
1,897
$
66
3.6%

(
5d)
Capital
Cost
$
1,412
$
1,417
$
5
0.3%

(
6)
Pre­
Tax
Income
(
Millions;
$
2002)
$
3,928
$
3,865
($
63)
­
1.6%

(
7)
Variable
Production
Costs
($
2002/
MWh)
$
18.26
$
18.21
($
0.05)
­
0.3%

SERC
(
1)
Total
Domestic
Capacity
(
MW)
207,945
208,341
395
0.2%

(
1a)
Existing
164,552
164,552
0
0.0%

(
1b)
New
Additions
43,393
43,789
396
0.9%
Addendum
to
Section
316(
b)
Phase
II
NODA
 
Economic
Impacts
June
3,
2003
Page
9
Table
2:
Market­
Level
Impacts
of
the
Preferred
Option
(
2010)

Economic
Measures
Base
Case
WB/
C­
Based
Option
Difference
%
Change
(
1c)
Repowering
Additions
0
0
0
0.0%

(
1d)
Closures
0
0
0
0.0%

(
2a)
Energy
Price
($
2002/
MWh)
$
25.81
$
25.81
$
0.00
0.0%

(
2b)
Capacity
Price
($
2002/
KW/
yr)
$
49.31
$
47.47
($
1.84)
­
3.7%

(
3)
Generation
(
GWh)
1,012,116
1,013,025
909
0.1%

(
4)
Revenues
(
Millions;
$
2002)
$
35,984
$
36,026
$
43
0.1%

(
5)
Costs
(
Millions;
$
2002)
$
22,345
$
22,463
$
117
0.5%

(
5a)
Fuel
Cost
$
11,804
$
11,797
($
7)
­
0.1%

(
5b)
Variable
O&
M
$
1,870
$
1,876
$
6
0.3%

(
5c)
Fixed
O&
M
$
5,411
$
5,493
$
82
1.5%

(
5d)
Capital
Cost
$
3,260
$
3,296
$
36
1.1%

(
6)
Pre­
Tax
Income
(
Millions;
$
2002)
$
13,638
$
13,564
($
74)
­
0.5%

(
7)
Variable
Production
Costs
($
2002/
MWh)
$
13.51
$
13.50
($
0.01)
­
0.1%

SPP
(
1)
Total
Domestic
Capacity
(
MW)
52,670
52,646
(
25)
0.0%

(
1a)
Existing
48,956
48,956
0
0.0%

(
1b)
New
Additions
3,714
3,690
(
25)
­
0.7%

(
1c)
Repowering
Additions
0
0
0
0.0%

(
1d)
Closures
0
0
0
0.0%

(
2a)
Energy
Price
($
2002/
MWh)
$
24.92
$
24.96
$
0.04
0.2%

(
2b)
Capacity
Price
($
2002/
KW/
yr)
$
49.30
$
45.35
($
3.95)
­
8.0%

(
3)
Generation
(
GWh)
233,472
233,584
112
0.0%

(
4)
Revenues
(
Millions;
$
2002)
$
8,216
$
8,213
($
3)
0.0%

(
5)
Costs
(
Millions;
$
2002)
$
4,742
$
4,753
$
10
0.2%

(
5a)
Fuel
Cost
$
2,944
$
2,943
($
1)
0.0%

(
5b)
Variable
O&
M
$
430
$
431
$
1
0.3%

(
5c)
Fixed
O&
M
$
1,076
$
1,089
$
13
1.2%

(
5d)
Capital
Cost
$
292
$
290
($
3)
­
1.0%
Addendum
to
Section
316(
b)
Phase
II
NODA
 
Economic
Impacts
June
3,
2003
Page
10
Table
2:
Market­
Level
Impacts
of
the
Preferred
Option
(
2010)

Economic
Measures
Base
Case
WB/
C­
Based
Option
Difference
%
Change
(
6)
Pre­
Tax
Income
(
Millions;
$
2002)
$
3,474
$
3,460
($
13)
­
0.4%

(
7)
Variable
Production
Costs
($
2002/
MWh)
$
14.45
$
14.45
($
0.01)
0.0%

WSCC
(
1)
Total
Domestic
Capacity
(
MW)
177,780
177,780
0
0.0%

(
1a)
Existing
152,891
152,886
(
5)
0.0%

(
1b)
New
Additions
17,337
17,332
(
5)
0.0%

(
1c)
Repowering
Additions
7,552
7,561
9
0.0%

(
1d)
Closures
0
0
0
0.0%

(
2a)
Energy
Price
($
2002/
MWh)
$
27.65
$
27.66
$
0.01
0.0%

(
2b)
Capacity
Price
($
2002/
KW/
yr)
$
37.38
$
24.93
($
12.44)
­
33.3%

(
3)
Generation
(
GWh)
806,830.15
806,817.90
(
12)
0.0%

(
4)
Revenues
(
Millions;
$
2002)
$
26,393
$
26,380
($
13)
­
0.1%

(
5)
Costs
(
Millions;
$
2002)
$
16,417
$
16,492
$
75
0.5%

(
5a)
Fuel
Cost
$
8,772
$
8,772
$
0
0.0%

(
5b)
Variable
O&
M
$
1,226
$
1,227
$
1
0.1%

(
5c)
Fixed
O&
M
$
4,327
$
4,401
$
74
1.7%

(
5d)
Capital
Cost
$
2,091
$
2,092
$
0
0.0%

(
6)
Pre­
Tax
Income
(
Millions;
$
2002)
$
9,976
$
9,888
($
89)
­
0.9%

(
7)
Variable
Production
Costs
($
2002/
MWh)
$
12.39
$
12.39
$
0.00
0.0%

Source:
IPM
analysis:
Model
runs
for
Section
316(
b)
NODA
Base
Case
and
the
preferred
option
(
AEO
electricity
demand).

Table
3
repeats
the
information
presented
in
Table
1
but,
to
facilitate
a
comparison
of
the
results
using
the
two
different
electricity
demand
assumptions,
adds
the
equivalent
results
from
Exhibit
1
of
the
NODA.
The
columns
labeled
"
EPA"
represent
the
NODA
results
based
on
EPA
electricity
demand
assumptions;
the
columns
labeled"
AEO"
represent
the
results
from
Table
1
based
on
AEO
electricity
demand
assumptions.
The
table
highlights
differences
between
the
two
cases
of
greater
than
or
equal
to
0.5
percent
with
bold
font
and
grey
cell
shading.
For
a
description
of
the
metrics
presented
in
this
table,
please
refer
to
the
introduction
of
Table
1.
Addendum
to
Section
316(
b)
Phase
II
NODA
 
Economic
Impacts
June
3,
2003
Page
11
Table
3:
Comparison
of
Market­
Level
Impacts
of
the
Preferred
Option
(
2010)

NERC
Region
Baseline
Capacity
(
MW)
Incremental
Capacity
Closures
(
MW)
Closures
as
%
of
Baseline
Capacity
Change
in
Variable
Production
Cost
per
MWh
Change
in
Energy
Price
per
MWh
Change
in
Pre­
Tax
Income
EPA
AEO
EPA
AEO
EPA
AEO
EPA
AEO
EPA
AEO
EPA
AEO
ECAR
118,529
127,332
0
0
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
­
1.1%
­
1.0%

ERCOT
75,290
80,472
0
0
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
­
0.1%
6.1%
1.2%
­
6.0%
­
1.6%

FRCC
50,324
53,831
0
0
0.0%
0.0%
0.4%
0.2%
0.6%
0.5%
­
3.1%
­
3.0%

MAAC
63,784
68,838
0
0
0.0%
0.0%
­
0.1%
­
0.2%
0.0%
0.0%
­
0.9%
­
0.7%

MAIN
59,494
63,946
434
1,012
0.7%
1.6%
0.8%
1.8%
­
0.3%
0.1%
­
0.7%
0.2%

MAPP
35,835
38,477
0
0
0.0%
0.0%
­
0.1%
­
0.1%
­
0.4%
­
0.7%
­
0.6%
­
0.1%

NPCC
72,477
76,114
0
0
0.0%
0.0%
­
0.4%
­
0.3%
0.9%
0.0%
0.8%
­
1.6%

SERC
194,485
207,945
0
0
0.0%
0.0%
­
0.1%
­
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
­
0.5%
­
0.5%

SPP
49,948
52,670
0
0
0.0%
0.0%
­
0.1%
0.0%
­
0.2%
0.2%
­
0.4%
­
0.4%

WSCC
167,748
177,780
0
0
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
­
1.1%
­
0.9%

Total
887,915
947,406
434
1,012
0.0%
0.1%
0.0%
0.1%
n/
a
n/
a
­
1.1%
­
0.8%

Source:
IPM
analysis:
Model
runs
for
Section
316(
b)
NODA
Base
Case
and
the
preferred
option
(
EPA
and
AEO
electricity
demand).

The
comparison
of
the
preferred
option
using
the
two
different
electricity
demand
assumptions
shows
the
differences
listed
below.
It
should
be
noted
that
the
direction
of
the
differences
is
not
systematic,
i.
e.,
in
some
cases,
impacts
are
greater
under
the
AEO
assumptions;
in
other
cases,
impacts
are
greater
under
the
EPA
assumptions.

<
Total
incremental
capacity
closures
are
578
MW
higher
under
the
AEO
assumptions
than
under
the
EPA
assumptions.
This
corresponds
to
less
than
0.07
percent
of
total
baseline
capacity.

<
In
MAIN,
incremental
closures
as
a
percentage
of
baseline
capacity
under
the
AEO
assumptions
are
approximately
0.9
percent
higher
than
under
the
EPA
assumptions.
Similarly,
the
increase
in
variable
production
cost
per
MWh
under
the
AEO
assumptions
is
1.0
percent
higher
than
under
the
EPA
assumptions.

<
Energy
prices
in
ERCOT
and
NPCC
rise
less
under
AEO
assumptions
than
EPA
assumptions.

<
The
change
in
pre­
tax
income
differs
by
0.5
percent
or
more
in
four
NERC
regions:
in
ERCOT
and
MAPP,
the
loss
in
pre­
tax
income
is
smaller
under
the
AEO
assumptions
than
the
EPA
assumptions;
in
MAIN,
there
is
a
gain
in
pre­
tax
income
under
the
AEO
assumptions
while
there
is
a
loss
under
the
EPA
Addendum
to
Section
316(
b)
Phase
II
NODA
 
Economic
Impacts
June
3,
2003
Page
12
assumptions;
in
NPCC,
there
is
a
loss
in
pre­
tax
income
under
the
AEO
assumptions
while
there
is
a
gain
under
the
EPA
assumptions.

<
For
all
other
measures
and
regions,
the
results
under
the
two
different
electricity
demand
assumptions
are
within
0.5
percent
of
each
other.

I.
2.
Analysis
for
In­
Scope
Phase
II
Facilities
as
a
Group
(
2010)

The
analysis
of
the
in­
scope
Phase
II
facilities
as
a
group
is
largely
similar
to
the
market­
level
analysis
described
in
Section
I.
1
above,
except
that
the
base
case
and
policy
option
totals
only
include
the
economic
activities
of
the
531
in­
scope
Phase
II
facilities
represented
by
the
IPM.
Tables
4
and
5
are
equivalent
tables,
respectively,
to
Exhibit
2
of
the
NODA
and
Table
B3­
5
of
EBA
Chapter
B3,
as
updated
for
the
NODA
(
DCN
5­
3002).
While
somewhat
repetitive,
both
tables
are
presented
here
to
allow
for
comparison
with
the
previously
published
materials.
Table
6
repeats
information
from
Table
4
but
adds
the
results
from
Exhibit
2
of
the
NODA.
This
table
further
facilitates
comparison
of
the
results
for
the
preferred
option
using
EPA's
and
AEO's
respective
electricity
demand
growth
assumptions.

Table
4
below
(
equivalent
to
NODA
Exhibit
2)
presents
five
measures
used
by
EPA
to
assess
the
impacts
on
Phase
II
facilities
associated
with
the
preferred
option:
(
1)
incremental
capacity
closures,
calculated
as
the
difference
between
capacity
closures
under
the
preferred
option
and
capacity
closures
under
the
base
case;
(
2)

incremental
capacity
closures
as
a
percentage
of
baseline
capacity;
(
3)
post­
compliance
changes
in
variable
production
costs
per
MWh,
calculated
as
the
sum
of
total
fuel
and
variable
O&
M
costs
divided
by
total
generation;
(
4)
post­
compliance
changes
in
electricity
generation;
and
(
5)
post­
compliance
changes
in
pre­
tax
income,
where
pretax
income
is
defined
as
total
revenues
minus
the
sum
of
fixed
and
variable
O&
M
costs,
fuel
costs,
and
capital
costs.

Table
4:
Impacts
on
Phase
II
Facilities
of
the
Preferred
Option
(
2010)

NERC
Region
Baseline
Capacity
(
MW)
Incremental
Capacity
Closures
(
MW)
Closures
as
%
of
Baseline
Capacity
Change
in
Variable
Production
Cost
($/
MWh)
Change
in
Generation
Change
in
Pre­
Tax
Income
ECAR
82,281
0
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
­
1.2%

ERCOT
44,413
0
0.0%
­
1.0%
­
0.7%
­
3.0%

FRCC
27,513
0
0.0%
0.8%
0.0%
­
4.2%

MAAC
34,696
0
0.0%
­
0.6%
­
0.4%
­
1.2%

MAIN
37,481
1,012
2.7%
1.2%
­
2.1%
­
0.1%
Addendum
to
Section
316(
b)
Phase
II
NODA
 
Economic
Impacts
June
3,
2003
Page
13
Table
4:
Impacts
on
Phase
II
Facilities
of
the
Preferred
Option
(
2010)

NERC
Region
Baseline
Capacity
(
MW)
Incremental
Capacity
Closures
(
MW)
Closures
as
%
of
Baseline
Capacity
Change
in
Variable
Production
Cost
($/
MWh)
Change
in
Generation
Change
in
Pre­
Tax
Income
MAPP
15,727
0
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
­
1.1%

NPCC
37,219
0
0.0%
­
0.5%
­
0.4%
­
4.3%

SERC
107,458
0
0.0%
­
0.1%
0.0%
­
0.7%

SPP
20,471
0
0.0%
­
0.7%
­
0.6%
­
0.9%

WSCC
28,093
0
0.0%
­
0.5%
­
2.2%
­
8.7%

Total
435,352
1,012
0.2%
­
0.2%
­
0.5%
­
1.6%

Source:
IPM
analysis:
Model
runs
for
Section
316(
b)
NODA
Base
Case
and
the
preferred
option
(
AEO
electricity
demand).

Table
5
below
(
equivalent
to
EBA
Table
B3­
5)
presents
six
impact
measures
for
the
group
of
Phase
II
facilities:

(
1)
capacity
changes,
including
changes
in
the
number
and
capacity
of
closure
facilities;
(
2)
generation
changes;

(
3)
revenue
changes;
(
4)
cost
changes,
including
changes
in
fuel
costs,
variable
O&
M
costs,
fixed
O&
M
costs,

and
capital
costs;
(
5)
changes
in
pre­
tax
income;
and
(
6)
changes
in
variable
production
costs
per
MWh
of
generation,
where
variable
production
cost
is
defined
as
the
sum
of
fuel
cost
and
variable
O&
M
cost.
For
each
measure,
the
table
presents
the
results
for
the
base
case
and
the
preferred
option,
the
absolute
difference
between
the
two
cases,
and
the
percentage
difference.

Table
5:
Facility­
Level
Impacts
of
the
Preferred
Option
(
2010)

Economic
Measures
Base
Case
Preferred
Option
Difference
%
Change
TOTAL
(
1)
Total
Domestic
Capacity
(
MW)
435,352
434,243
(
1,109)
­
0.3%

(
1a)
Closures
 
Number
of
Facilities
8
9
1
12.5%

(
1b)
Closures
 
Capacity
(
MW)
10,204
11,216
1,012
9.9%

(
2)
Generation
(
GWh)
2,334,901
2,323,969
(
10,933)
­
0.5%

(
3)
Revenues
(
Millions,
$
2002)
$
80,518
$
80,147
($
370)
­
0.5%

(
4)
Cost
(
Millions,
$
2002)
$
48,920
$
49,040
$
120
0.2%

(
4a)
Fuel
Cost
$
25,459
$
25,272
($
187)
­
0.7%

(
4b)
Variable
O&
M
$
5,188
$
5,182
($
5)
­
0.1%

(
4c)
Fixed
O&
M
$
15,403
$
15,765
$
362
2.3%
Addendum
to
Section
316(
b)
Phase
II
NODA
 
Economic
Impacts
June
3,
2003
Page
14
Table
5:
Facility­
Level
Impacts
of
the
Preferred
Option
(
2010)

Economic
Measures
Base
Case
Preferred
Option
Difference
%
Change
(
4d)
Capital
Cost
$
2,871
$
2,821
($
50)
­
1.7%

(
5)
Pre­
Tax
Income
(
Millions,
$
2002)
$
31,598
$
31,107
($
491)
­
1.6%

(
6)
Variable
Production
Costs
($
2002/
MWh)
$
13.13
$
13.10
($
0.02)
­
0.2%

ECAR
(
1)
Total
Domestic
Capacity
(
MW)
82,281
82,281
0
0.0%

(
1a)
Closures
 
Number
of
Facilities
0
0
0
0.0%

(
1b)
Closures
 
Capacity
(
MW)
1
1
0
0.0%

(
2)
Generation
(
GWh)
532,207
532,229
22
0.0%

(
3)
Revenues
(
Millions,
$
2002)
$
17,524
$
17,526
$
2
0.0%

(
4)
Cost
(
Millions,
$
2002)
$
9,924
$
10,018
$
95
1.0%

(
4a)
Fuel
Cost
$
5,207
$
5,204
($
2)
0.0%

(
4b)
Variable
O&
M
$
1,302
$
1,306
$
3
0.3%

(
4c)
Fixed
O&
M
$
2,981
$
3,075
$
94
3.1%

(
4d)
Capital
Cost
$
434
$
434
$
0
0.0%

(
5)
Pre­
Tax
Income
(
Millions,
$
2002)
$
7,600
$
7,508
($
93)
­
1.2%

(
6)
Variable
Production
Costs
($
2002/
MWh)
$
12.23
$
12.23
$
0.00
0.0%

ERCOT
(
1)
Total
Domestic
Capacity
(
MW)
44,413
44,482
69
0.2%

(
1a)
Closures
 
Number
of
Facilities
0
0
0
0.0%

(
1b)
Closures
 
Capacity
(
MW)
0
0
0
0.0%

(
2)
Generation
(
GWh)
160,614
159,483
(
1,131)
­
0.7%

(
3)
Revenues
(
Millions,
$
2002)
5,919
5,859
($
59)
­
1.0%

(
4)
Cost
(
Millions,
$
2002)
$
4,026
$
4,023
($
4)
­
0.1%

(
4a)
Fuel
Cost
$
2,186
$
2,144
($
41)
­
1.9%

(
4b)
Variable
O&
M
$
421
$
418
($
3)
­
0.7%

(
4c)
Fixed
O&
M
$
1,193
$
1,219
$
27
2.2%

(
4d)
Capital
Cost
$
227
$
241
$
14
6.1%

(
5)
Pre­
Tax
Income
(
Millions,
$
2002)
$
1,892
$
1,836
($
56)
­
3.0%
Addendum
to
Section
316(
b)
Phase
II
NODA
 
Economic
Impacts
June
3,
2003
Page
15
Table
5:
Facility­
Level
Impacts
of
the
Preferred
Option
(
2010)

Economic
Measures
Base
Case
Preferred
Option
Difference
%
Change
(
6)
Variable
Production
Costs
($
2002/
MWh)
$
16.23
$
16.07
($
0.16)
­
1.0%

FRCC
(
1)
Total
Domestic
Capacity
(
MW)
27,513
27,513
0
0.0%

(
1a)
Closures
 
Number
of
Facilities
0
0
0
0.0%

(
1b)
Closures
 
Capacity
(
MW)
812
812
0
0.0%

(
2)
Generation
(
GWh)
80,925
80,949
24
0.0%

(
3)
Revenues
(
Millions,
$
2002)
$
3,445
$
3,432
($
13)
­
0.4%

(
4)
Cost
(
Millions,
$
2002)
$
2,002
$
2,049
$
47
2.3%

(
4a)
Fuel
Cost
$
1,093
$
1,099
$
7
0.6%

(
4b)
Variable
O&
M
$
197
$
201
$
4
2.0%

(
4c)
Fixed
O&
M
$
682
$
719
$
37
5.4%

(
4d)
Capital
Cost
$
30
$
29
$
0
­
1.4%

(
5)
Pre­
Tax
Income
(
Millions,
$
2002)
$
1,443
$
1,383
($
60)
­
4.2%

(
6)
Variable
Production
Costs
($
2002/
MWh)
$
15.94
$
16.06
$
0.12
0.8%

MAAC
(
1)
Total
Domestic
Capacity
(
MW)
34,696
34,696
0
0.0%

(
1a)
Closures
 
Number
of
Facilities
1
1
0
0.0%

(
1b)
Closures
 
Capacity
(
MW)
1,725
1,725
0
0.0%

(
2)
Generation
(
GWh)
175,862
175,118
(
745)
­
0.4%

(
3)
Revenues
(
Millions,
$
2002)
$
6,647
$
6,629
($
18)
­
0.3%

(
4)
Cost
(
Millions,
$
2002)
$
3,746
$
3,762
$
16
0.4%

(
4a)
Fuel
Cost
$
1,735
$
1,715
($
19)
­
1.1%

(
4b)
Variable
O&
M
$
361
$
360
($
1)
­
0.3%

(
4c)
Fixed
O&
M
$
1,508
$
1,545
$
36
2.4%

(
4d)
Capital
Cost
$
141
$
141
$
0
0.0%

(
5)
Pre­
Tax
Income
(
Millions,
$
2002)
$
2,901
$
2,867
($
34)
­
1.2%

(
6)
Variable
Production
Costs
($
2002/
MWh)
$
11.92
$
11.85
($
0.07)
­
0.6%

MAIN
Addendum
to
Section
316(
b)
Phase
II
NODA
 
Economic
Impacts
June
3,
2003
Page
16
Table
5:
Facility­
Level
Impacts
of
the
Preferred
Option
(
2010)

Economic
Measures
Base
Case
Preferred
Option
Difference
%
Change
(
1)
Total
Domestic
Capacity
(
MW)
37,481
36,469
(
1,012)
­
2.7%

(
1a)
Closures
 
Number
of
Facilities
2
3
1
50.0%

(
1b)
Closures
 
Capacity
(
MW)
3,083
4,095
1,012
32.8%

(
2)
Generation
(
GWh)
230,340
225,465
(
4,874)
­
2.1%

(
3)
Revenues
(
Millions,
$
2002)
$
7,430
$
7,287
($
143)
­
1.9%

(
4)
Cost
(
Millions,
$
2002)
$
4,444
$
4,302
($
142)
­
3.2%

(
4a)
Fuel
Cost
$
2,141
$
2,124
($
18)
­
0.8%

(
4b)
Variable
O&
M
$
520
$
512
($
8)
­
1.6%

(
4c)
Fixed
O&
M
$
1,650
$
1,574
($
76)
­
4.6%

(
4d)
Capital
Cost
$
132
$
93
($
39)
­
29.6%

(
5)
Pre­
Tax
Income
(
Millions,
$
2002)
$
2,986
$
2,985
($
2)
­
0.1%

(
6)
Variable
Production
Costs
($
2002/
MWh)
$
11.55
$
11.69
$
0.13
1.2%

MAPP
(
1)
Total
Domestic
Capacity
(
MW)
15,727
15,727
$
0
0.0%

(
1a)
Closures
 
Number
of
Facilities
1
1
$
0
0.0%

(
1b)
Closures
 
Capacity
(
MW)
476
476
$
0
0.0%

(
2)
Generation
(
GWh)
110,585
110,608
$
23
0.0%

(
3)
Revenues
(
Millions,
$
2002)
$
3,322
$
3,325
$
3
0.1%

(
4)
Cost
(
Millions,
$
2002)
$
2,004
$
2,022
$
18
0.9%

(
4a)
Fuel
Cost
$
1,067
$
1,067
$
0
0.0%

(
4b)
Variable
O&
M
$
226
$
227
$
0
0.1%

(
4c)
Fixed
O&
M
$
597
$
615
$
18
2.9%

(
4d)
Capital
Cost
$
114
$
114
$
0
0.0%

(
5)
Pre­
Tax
Income
(
Millions,
$
2002)
$
1,318
$
1,303
($
15)
­
1.1%

(
6)
Variable
Production
Costs
($
2002/
MWh)
$
11.70
$
11.70
$
0.00
0.0%

NPCC
(
1)
Total
Domestic
Capacity
(
MW)
37,219
37,238
19
0.1%

(
1a)
Closures
 
Number
of
Facilities
4
4
0
0.0%
Addendum
to
Section
316(
b)
Phase
II
NODA
 
Economic
Impacts
June
3,
2003
Page
17
Table
5:
Facility­
Level
Impacts
of
the
Preferred
Option
(
2010)

Economic
Measures
Base
Case
Preferred
Option
Difference
%
Change
(
1b)
Closures
 
Capacity
(
MW)
4,107
4,107
0
0.0%

(
2)
Generation
(
GWh)
159,374
158,792
(
582)
­
0.4%

(
3)
Revenues
(
Millions,
$
2002)
$
6,594
$
6,567
($
27)
­
0.4%

(
4)
Cost
(
Millions,
$
2002)
$
4,948
$
4,991
$
43
0.9%

(
4a)
Fuel
Cost
$
2,667
$
2,644
($
23)
­
0.9%

(
4b)
Variable
O&
M
$
268
$
265
($
3)
­
1.1%

(
4c)
Fixed
O&
M
$
1,238
$
1,305
$
66
5.4%

(
4d)
Capital
Cost
$
774
$
777
$
3
0.4%

(
5)
Pre­
Tax
Income
(
Millions,
$
2002)
$
1,646
$
1,576
($
70)
­
4.3%

(
6)
Variable
Production
Costs
($
2002/
MWh)
$
18.42
$
18.32
($
0.10)
­
0.5%

SERC
(
1)
Total
Domestic
Capacity
(
MW)
107,458
107,458
0
0.0%

(
1a)
Closures
 
Number
of
Facilities
0
0
0
0.0%

(
1b)
Closures
 
Capacity
(
MW)
0
0
0
0.0%

(
2)
Generation
(
GWh)
641,200
641,177
(
23)
0.0%

(
3)
Revenues
(
Millions,
$
2002)
$
21,403
$
21,405
$
2
0.0%

(
4)
Cost
(
Millions,
$
2002)
$
12,103
$
12,174
$
72
0.6%

(
4a)
Fuel
Cost
$
6,200
$
6,189
($
10)
­
0.2%

(
4b)
Variable
O&
M
$
1,370
$
1,375
$
5
0.4%

(
4c)
Fixed
O&
M
$
3,983
$
4,059
$
75
1.9%

(
4d)
Capital
Cost
$
549
$
551
$
1
0.3%

(
5)
Pre­
Tax
Income
(
Millions,
$
2002)
$
9,300
$
9,231
($
69)
­
0.7%

(
6)
Variable
Production
Costs
($
2002/
MWh)
$
11.81
$
11.80
($
0.01)
­
0.1%

SPP
(
1)
Total
Domestic
Capacity
(
MW)
20,471
20,471
0
0.0%

(
1a)
Closures
 
Number
of
Facilities
0
0
0
0.0%

(
1b)
Closures
 
Capacity
(
MW)
0
0
0
0.0%

(
2)
Generation
(
GWh)
109,277
108,638
(
639)
­
0.6%

(
3)
Revenues
(
Millions,
$
2002)
$
3,558
$
3,538
($
20)
­
0.6%
Addendum
to
Section
316(
b)
Phase
II
NODA
 
Economic
Impacts
June
3,
2003
Page
18
Table
5:
Facility­
Level
Impacts
of
the
Preferred
Option
(
2010)

Economic
Measures
Base
Case
Preferred
Option
Difference
%
Change
(
4)
Cost
(
Millions,
$
2002)
$
1,941
$
1,935
($
6)
­
0.3%

(
4a)
Fuel
Cost
$
1,138
$
1,120
($
18)
­
1.6%

(
4b)
Variable
O&
M
$
241
$
241
$
0
­
0.2%

(
4c)
Fixed
O&
M
$
557
$
570
$
13
2.4%

(
4d)
Capital
Cost
$
5
$
4
($
1)
­
20.4%

(
5)
Pre­
Tax
Income
(
Millions,
$
2002)
$
1,617
$
1,603
($
14)
­
0.9%

(
6)
Variable
Production
Costs
($
2002/
MWh)
$
12.63
$
12.53
($
0.09)
­
0.7%

WSCC
(
1)
Total
Domestic
Capacity
(
MW)
28,093
27,908
(
185)
­
0.7%

(
1a)
Closures
 
Number
of
Facilities
0
0
0
0.0%

(
1b)
Closures
 
Capacity
(
MW)
0
0
0
0.0%

(
2)
Generation
(
GWh)
134,517
131,510
(
3,007)
­
2.2%

(
3)
Revenues
(
Millions,
$
2002)
$
4,675
$
4,578
($
97)
­
2.1%

(
4)
Cost
(
Millions,
$
2002)
$
3,783
$
3,764
($
19)
­
0.5%

(
4a)
Fuel
Cost
$
2,026
$
1,964
($
62)
­
3.0%

(
4b)
Variable
O&
M
$
280
$
278
($
2)
­
0.8%

(
4c)
Fixed
O&
M
$
1,013
$
1,085
$
72
7.1%

(
4d)
Capital
Cost
$
464
$
437
($
27)
­
5.8%

(
5)
Pre­
Tax
Income
(
Millions,
$
2002)
$
892
$
814
($
78)
­
8.7%

(
6)
Variable
Production
Costs
($
2002/
MWh)
$
17.14
$
17.05
($
0.09)
­
0.5%

Source:
IPM
analysis:
Model
runs
for
Section
316(
b)
NODA
Base
Case
and
the
preferred
option
(
AEO
electricity
demand).

Table
6
repeats
the
information
presented
in
Table
4
but,
to
facilitate
a
comparison
of
the
results
using
the
two
different
electricity
demand
assumptions,
adds
the
equivalent
results
from
Exhibit
2
of
the
NODA.
The
columns
labeled
"
EPA"
represent
the
NODA
results
based
on
EPA
electricity
demand
assumptions;
the
columns
labeled"
AEO"
represent
the
results
from
Table
4
based
on
AEO
electricity
demand
assumptions.
The
table
highlights
differences
between
the
two
cases
of
greater
than
or
equal
to
0.5
percent
with
bold
font
and
grey
cell
shading.
For
a
description
of
the
metrics
presented
in
this
table,
please
refer
to
the
introduction
of
Table
4.
Addendum
to
Section
316(
b)
Phase
II
NODA
 
Economic
Impacts
June
3,
2003
Page
19
Table
6:
Comparison
of
Facility­
Level
Impacts
of
the
Preferred
Option
(
2010)

NERC
Region
Baseline
Capacity
(
MW)
Incremental
Capacity
Closures
(
MW)
Closures
as
%
of
Baseline
Capacity
Change
in
Variable
Production
Cost
per
MWh
Change
in
Generation
Change
in
Pre­
Tax
Income
EPA
AEO
EPA
AEO
EPA
AEO
EPA
AEO
EPA
AEO
EPA
AEO
ECAR
82,313
82,281
0
0
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
­
0.1%
0.0%
­
1.4%
­
1.2%

ERCOT
43,522
44,413
0
0
0.0%
0.0%
­
0.7%
­
1.0%
­
1.7%
­
0.7%
­
11.0%
­
3.0%

FRCC
27,537
27,513
0
0
0.0%
0.0%
0.3%
0.8%
­
0.8%
0.0%
­
4.1%
­
4.2%

MAAC
33,590
34,696
0
0
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
­
0.6%
0.2%
­
0.4%
­
1.4%
­
1.2%

MAIN
35,373
37,481
434
1,012
1.2%
2.7%
0.5%
1.2%
­
1.1%
­
2.1%
­
1.0%
­
0.1%

MAPP
15,727
15,727
0
0
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
­
1.6%
­
1.1%

NPCC
37,651
37,219
0
0
0.0%
0.0%
­
1.4%
­
0.5%
­
2.3%
­
0.4%
­
0.8%
­
4.3%

SERC
107,450
107,458
0
0
0.0%
0.0%
­
0.2%
­
0.1%
­
0.2%
0.0%
­
0.7%
­
0.7%

SPP
20,471
20,471
0
0
0.0%
0.0%
­
0.4%
­
0.7%
­
0.6%
­
0.6%
­
1.0%
­
0.9%

WSCC
27,206
28,093
0
0
0.0%
0.0%
­
1.0%
­
0.5%
­
5.5%
­
2.2%
­
27.0%
­
8.7%

Total
430,840
435,352
434
1,012
0.1%
0.2%
­
0.5%
­
0.2%
­
0.8%
­
0.5%
­
2.0%
­
1.6%

Source:
IPM
analysis:
Model
runs
for
Section
316(
b)
NODA
Base
Case
and
the
preferred
option
(
EPA
and
AEO
electricity
demand).

The
comparison
of
the
preferred
option
using
the
two
different
electricity
demand
assumptions
show
the
differences
listed
below.
It
should
be
noted
that
the
direction
of
the
differences
is
not
systematic,
i.
e.,
in
some
cases,
impacts
are
greater
under
the
AEO
assumptions;
in
other
cases,
impacts
are
greater
under
the
EPA
assumptions.

<
Total
incremental
capacity
closures
are
578
MW
higher
under
the
AEO
assumptions
than
under
the
EPA
assumptions.
This
corresponds
to
approximately
0.1
percent
of
Phase
II
baseline
capacity.

<
Closures
as
a
percentage
of
baseline
capacity
in
MAIN
is
1.5
percent
under
the
AEO
assumptions
than
under
the
EPA
assumptions.

<
The
change
in
variable
production
cost
per
MWh
differs
by
0.5
percent
or
more
in
three
NERC
regions:
in
MAIN,
it
increases
more
under
the
AEO
assumptions
than
under
EPA
assumptions;
in
MAAC,
it
decreases
under
AEO
assumptions
but
is
unchanged
under
the
EPA
assumptions;
in
NPPC,
it
decreases
less
under
the
AEO
assumptions
than
under
the
EPA
assumptions.

<
The
change
in
generation
differs
by
0.5
percent
or
more
in
six
NERC
regions:
in
ERCOT,
FRCC,
NPCC,

and
WSCC,
Phase
II
facilities
lose
more
generation
under
the
EPA
assumptions
than
under
the
AEO
Addendum
to
Section
316(
b)
Phase
II
NODA
 
Economic
Impacts
June
3,
2003
Page
20
assumptions;
in
MAIN,
they
lose
more
generation
under
the
AEO
assumptions
than
under
the
EPA
assumptions;
in
MAAC
they
experience
an
increase
in
generation
under
the
EPA
assumptions
and
a
decrease
under
the
AEO
assumptions.

<
The
change
in
pre­
tax
income
differs
by
0.5
percent
or
more
in
four
NERC
regions:
in
ERCOT,
MAIN,

and
WSCC,
Phase
II
facilities
experience
a
higher
reduction
in
pre­
tax
income
under
the
AEO
assumptions
than
under
the
EPA
assumptions;
in
NPCC,
the
opposite
is
the
case.

<
For
all
other
measures
and
regions,
the
results
under
the
two
different
electricity
demand
assumptions
are
within
0.5
percent
of
each
other.

I.
3.
Analysis
for
Individual
Phase
II
Facilities
(
2010)

In
addition
to
effects
of
the
preferred
option
on
the
in­
scope
Phase
II
facilities
as
a
group,
there
may
be
shifts
in
economic
performance
among
individual
facilities
subject
to
Phase
II
regulation.
To
assess
such
potential
shifts,

EPA
analyzed
facility­
specific
changes
in
(
1)
capacity
utilization
(
defined
as
generation
divided
by
capacity
multiplied
by
the
number
of
hours
per
year
 
8,760);
(
2)
generation;
(
3)
revenues;
(
4)
variable
production
costs
per
MWh
of
generation
(
defined
as
variable
O&
M
cost
plus
fuel
cost
divided
by
generation);
(
5)
fuel
cost
per
MWh
of
generation;
and
(
6)
pre­
tax
income.
For
each
measure,
EPA
determined
the
number
of
Phase
II
facilities
that
experience
no
changes,
or
an
increase
or
a
reduction
within
three
ranges:
1
percent
or
less,
1
to
3
percent,
and
3
percent
or
more.

Table
7
(
equivalent
to
Notice
Exhibit
3
and
EBA
Table
B3­
6)
presents
the
total
number
of
Phase
II
facilities
with
different
degrees
of
change
in
each
of
these
measures.
This
table
excludes
16
facilities
with
significant
status
changes
including
(
eight
facilities
are
baseline
closures,
one
facility
is
a
policy
closure,
and
seven
facilities
changed
their
repowering
decisions
between
the
base
case
and
policy
case).
These
facilities
are
either
not
operating
at
all
in
the
base
case
or
the
post­
compliance
case,
or
they
experience
fundamental
changes
in
the
type
of
units
they
operate;
therefore,
the
measures
presented
below
would
not
be
meaningful
for
these
facilities.
In
addition,
the
changes
in
production
cost
per
MWh
and
fuel
cost
per
MWh
could
not
be
developed
for
57
facilities
with
zero
generation
in
either
the
base
case
or
post­
compliance
scenario.
For
these
facilities,
the
change
in
production
cost
per
MWh
and
fuel
cost
per
MWh
is
indicated
as
"
n/
a."
Addendum
to
Section
316(
b)
Phase
II
NODA
 
Economic
Impacts
June
3,
2003
Page
21
Table
7:
Number
of
Phase
II
Facilities
with
Operational
Changes
 
Preferred
Option
(
2010)
a
Economic
Measure
Reduction
Increase
No
Change
N/
A
<=
1%
1­
3%
>
3%
<=
1%
1­
3%
>
3%

Change
in
Capacity
Utilizationb
7
12
16
11
7
11
451
0
Change
in
Generation
5
1
32
8
4
20
445
0
Change
in
Revenue
43
17
35
91
12
17
300
0
Change
in
Production
Cost/
MWh
38
12
9
145
12
14
228
57
Change
in
Fuel
Cost/
MWh
47
9
9
39
10
9
335
57
Change
in
Pre­
Tax
Income
128
122
202
23
12
8
20
0
a
For
all
measures
percentages
used
to
assign
facilities
to
impact
categories
have
been
rounded
to
the
nearest
10th
of
a
percent.
b
The
change
in
capacity
utilization
is
the
difference
between
the
capacity
utilization
percentages
in
the
base
case
and
post­
compliance
case.
For
all
other
measures,
the
change
is
expressed
as
the
percentage
change
between
the
base
case
and
post­
compliance
values.

Source:
IPM
analysis:
Model
runs
for
Section
316(
b)
NODA
Base
Case
and
the
preferred
option
(
AEO
electricity
demand).

II.
IPM
Results
for
the
Waterbody/
Capacity­
Based
Option
(
EPA
Assumptions)

The
second
additional
analysis
reflects
the
compliance
requirements
of
the
waterbody/
capacity­
based
option
and
electricity
demand
growth
assumptions
based
on
the
Annual
Energy
Outlook
(
AEO)
2001
forecast
adjusted
to
account
for
demand
reductions
resulting
from
the
implementation
of
the
Climate
Change
Action
Plan
(
CAAP).

For
a
description
of
the
waterbody/
capacity­
based
option
and
for
further
explanation
on
the
two
base
cases
see
Chapters
A1
and
the
Appendix
to
Chapter
B8,
respectively,
of
the
Economic
and
Benefits
Analysis
(
EBA)

document
as
published
for
the
proposed
rule
(
DCN
4­
0002
http://
www.
epa.
gov/
ost/
316b/
econbenefits).

This
section
is
organized
the
same
way
as
Section
I,
discussing
the
preferred
option,
above.
The
following
subsections
present
results
for
(
1)
the
entire
market
(
i.
e.,
all
generators
located
in
each
NERC
region
including
facilities
that
are
in­
scope
and
facilities
that
are
out­
of­
scope
of
Phase
II
regulation);
(
2)
the
in­
scope
Phase
II
facilities
as
a
group;
and
(
3)
individual
Phase
II
facilities.
The
tables
are
equivalent
to
the
tables
for
the
waterbody/
capacity­
based
option
presented
in
the
Notice
and
its
supporting
documents
(
DCN
5­
3003),
except
for
Addendum
to
Section
316(
b)
Phase
II
NODA
 
Economic
Impacts
June
3,
2003
Page
22
4
For
the
NODA,
EPA
conducted
one
additional
analysis
of
results
in
2008,
a
year
during
which
some
facilities
come
into
compliance
and
experience
installation
downtimes.
This
analysis
was
done
to
determine
if
downtimes
would
impose
greater
short­
term
impacts
on
market­
level
characteristics,
e.
g.,
prices.
The
equivalent
results
for
this
analysis
are
not
presented
in
this
memorandum
but
are
available
in
the
docket
materials
(
DCN
5­
3121).
the
change
in
base
cases.
4
II.
1.
Market
Analysis
(
2013)

This
section
presents
the
results
of
the
IPM
analysis
for
all
facilities
modeled
by
the
IPM.
The
market­
level
analysis
includes
results
for
all
generators
located
in
each
NERC
region
including
facilities
that
are
in­
scope
and
facilities
that
are
out­
of­
scope
of
Phase
II
regulation.
Tables
8
and
9
are
equivalent
tables,
respectively,
to
Exhibit
4
of
the
NODA
and
Table
B8­
2
of
EBA
Chapter
B8,
as
updated
for
the
NODA
(
DCN­
5­
3003).
While
somewhat
repetitive,
both
tables
are
presented
here
to
allow
for
comparison
with
the
previously
published
materials.
Table
10
repeats
information
from
Table
8
but
adds
the
results
from
Exhibit
4
of
the
NODA.
This
table
further
facilitates
comparison
of
the
results
for
the
waterbody/
capacity­
based
option
using
EPA's
and
AEO's
respective
electricity
demand
growth
assumptions.

Table
8
below
(
equivalent
to
NODA
Exhibit
4)
presents
five
measures
used
by
EPA
to
assess
market­
level
impacts
associated
with
the
waterbody/
capacity­
based
option:
(
1)
incremental
capacity
closures,
calculated
as
the
difference
between
capacity
closures
under
the
waterbody/
capacity­
based
option
and
capacity
closures
under
the
base
case;
(
2)
incremental
capacity
closures
as
a
percentage
of
baseline
capacity;
(
3)
post­
compliance
changes
in
variable
production
costs
per
MWh,
calculated
as
the
sum
of
total
fuel
and
variable
O&
M
costs
divided
by
total
generation;
(
4)
post­
compliance
changes
in
energy
price,
where
energy
prices
are
defined
as
the
wholesale
prices
received
by
facilities
for
the
sale
of
electric
generation;
and
(
5)
post­
compliance
changes
in
pre­
tax
income,
where
pretax
income
is
defined
as
total
revenues
minus
the
sum
of
fixed
and
variable
O&
M
costs,
fuel
costs,
and
capital
costs.

Table
8:
Market
Level
Impacts
of
the
Waterbody/
Capacity­
Based
Option
(
2013)

NERC
Region
Baseline
Capacity
(
MW)
Incremental
Capacity
Closures
(
MW)
Closures
as
%
of
Baseline
Capacity
Change
in
Variable
Production
Cost
per
MWh
Change
in
Energy
Price
per
MWh
Change
in
Pre­
Tax
Income
ECAR
122,082
0
0.0%
0.1%
­
0.2%
­
0.9%

ERCOT
80,228
0
0.0%
0.0%
1.5%
­
3.9%

FRCC
52,849
0
0.0%
0.6%
1.3%
­
10.1%

MAAC
65,308
0
0.0%
1.0%
0.7%
­
6.0%
Addendum
to
Section
316(
b)
Phase
II
NODA
 
Economic
Impacts
June
3,
2003
Page
23
Table
8:
Market
Level
Impacts
of
the
Waterbody/
Capacity­
Based
Option
(
2013)

NERC
Region
Baseline
Capacity
(
MW)
Incremental
Capacity
Closures
(
MW)
Closures
as
%
of
Baseline
Capacity
Change
in
Variable
Production
Cost
per
MWh
Change
in
Energy
Price
per
MWh
Change
in
Pre­
Tax
Income
MAIN
61,357
519
0.8%
1.1%
­
0.1%
­
1.0%

MAPP
36,628
0
0.0%
­
0.2%
0.0%
­
0.7%

NPCC
73,476
0
0.0%
­
0.2%
0.7%
­
5.8%

SERC
205,307
0
0.0%
0.1%
0.0%
­
1.4%

SPP
51,363
0
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
­
0.4%

WSCC
173,587
3,274
1.9%
3.1%
0.6%
­
4.4%

Total
922,185
3,793
0.4%
0.7%
n/
a
­
2.8%

Source:
IPM
analysis:
Model
runs
for
Section
316(
b)
NODA
Base
Case
and
the
waterbody/
capacity­
based
option
(
EPA
electricity
demand).

Table
9
below
(
equivalent
to
EBA
Table
B8­
2)
presents
seven
measures
of
market­
level
impacts
associated
with
the
waterbody/
capacity­
based
option:
(
1)
capacity
changes,
including
changes
in
existing
capacity,
new
additions,

repowering
additions,
and
closures;
(
2)
electricity
price
changes,
including
changes
in
energy
prices
and
capacity
prices;
(
3)
generation
changes;
(
4)
revenue
changes;
(
5)
cost
changes,
including
changes
in
fuel
costs,
variable
O&
M
costs,
fixed
O&
M
costs,
and
capital
costs;
(
6)
changes
in
pre­
tax
income,
defined
as
revenues
minus
total
costs;
and
(
7)
changes
in
variable
production
costs
per
MWh.
For
each
measure,
Table
9
presents
the
results
for
the
base
case
and
the
waterbody/
capacity­
based
option,
the
absolute
difference
between
the
two
cases,
and
the
percentage
difference
by
NERC
region.
A
detailed
description
of
each
of
the
impact
measures
is
presented
in
Section
B3­
3.1
of
Chapter
B3:
Electricity
Market
Model
Analysis
(
DCN­
5­
3002).

Table
9:
Market­
Level
Waterbody/
Capacity­
Based
Option
(
2013)

Economic
Measures
Base
Case
WB/
C­
Based
Option
Difference
%
Change
Total
(
1)
Total
Domestic
Capacity
(
MW)
922,185
921,512
(
673)
­
0.1%

(
1a)
Existing
786,082
780,334
(
5,748)
­
0.7%

(
1b)
New
Additions
114,770
117,224
2,454
2.1%

(
1c)
Repowering
Additions
21,334
23,954
2,620
12.3%

(
1d)
Closures
15,044
18,837
3,793
25.2%

(
2a)
Energy
Price
($
2002/
MWh)
n/
a
n/
a
n/
a
n/
a
Addendum
to
Section
316(
b)
Phase
II
NODA
 
Economic
Impacts
June
3,
2003
Page
24
Table
9:
Market­
Level
Waterbody/
Capacity­
Based
Option
(
2013)

Economic
Measures
Base
Case
WB/
C­
Based
Option
Difference
%
Change
(
2b)
Capacity
Price
($
2002/
KW/
yr)
n/
a
n/
a
n/
a
n/
a
(
3)
Generation
(
GWh)
4,261,561
4,261,871
311
0.0%

(
4)
Revenues
(
Millions;
$
2002)
$
148,646
$
148,387
($
259)
­
0.2%

(
5)
Costs
(
Millions;
$
2002)
$
92,200
$
93,546
$
1,345
1.5%

(
5a)
Fuel
Cost
$
49,047
$
49,485
$
438
0.9%

(
5b)
Variable
O&
M
$
8,142
$
8,102
($
40)
­
0.5%

(
5c)
Fixed
O&
M
$
23,729
$
24,378
$
649
2.7%

(
5d)
Capital
Cost
$
11,283
$
11,581
$
298
2.6%

(
6)
Pre­
Tax
Income
(
Millions;
$
2002)
$
56,446
$
54,842
($
1,604)
­
2.8%

(
7)
Variable
Production
Costs
($
2002/
MWh)
$
13.42
$
13.51
$
0.09
0.7%

ECAR
(
1)
Total
Domestic
Capacity
(
MW)
122,082
122,454
372
0.3%

(
1a)
Existing
110,034
110,034
0
0.0%

(
1b)
New
Additions
11,978
12,351
372
3.1%

(
1c)
Repowering
Additions
70
70
0
0.0%

(
1d)
Closures
0
0
0
0.0%

(
2a)
Energy
Price
($
2002/
MWh)
$
23.24
$
23.20
($
0.04)
­
0.2%

(
2b)
Capacity
Price
($
2002/
KW/
yr)
$
57.07
$
57.32
$
0.25
0.4%

(
3)
Generation
(
GWh)
661,406
662,195
789
0.1%

(
4)
Revenues
(
Millions;
$
2002)
$
22,319
$
22,366
$
47
0.2%

(
5)
Costs
(
Millions;
$
2002)
$
12,767
$
12,902
$
136
1.1%

(
5a)
Fuel
Cost
$
6,295
$
6,307
$
12
0.2%

(
5b)
Variable
O&
M
$
1,627
$
1,633
$
6
0.4%

(
5c)
Fixed
O&
M
$
3,615
$
3,711
$
96
2.7%

(
5d)
Capital
Cost
$
1,231
$
1,252
$
21
1.7%

(
6)
Pre­
Tax
Income
(
Millions;
$
2002)
$
9,552
$
9,463
($
89)
­
0.9%

(
7)
Variable
Production
Costs
($
2002/
MWh)
$
11.98
$
11.99
$
0.01
0.1%

ERCOT
(
1)
Total
Domestic
Capacity
(
MW)
80,228
80,206
(
21)
0.0%
Addendum
to
Section
316(
b)
Phase
II
NODA
 
Economic
Impacts
June
3,
2003
Page
25
Table
9:
Market­
Level
Waterbody/
Capacity­
Based
Option
(
2013)

Economic
Measures
Base
Case
WB/
C­
Based
Option
Difference
%
Change
(
1a)
Existing
71,877
71,667
(
210)
­
0.3%

(
1b)
New
Additions
7,014
6,826
(
189)
­
2.7%

(
1c)
Repowering
Additions
1,336
1,713
377
28.2%

(
1d)
Closures
0
0
0
0.0%

(
2a)
Energy
Price
($
2002/
MWh)
$
27.09
$
27.50
$
0.42
1.5%

(
2b)
Capacity
Price
($
2002/
KW/
yr)
$
29.98
$
27.12
($
2.86)
­
9.6%

(
3)
Generation
(
GWh)
359,622
359,033
(
589)
­
0.2%

(
4)
Revenues
(
Millions;
$
2002)
$
12,144
$
12,047
($
97)
­
0.8%

(
5)
Costs
(
Millions;
$
2002)
$
8,724
$
8,760
$
35
0.4%

(
5a)
Fuel
Cost
$
5,520
$
5,512
($
8)
­
0.1%

(
5b)
Variable
O&
M
$
735
$
732
($
2)
­
0.3%

(
5c)
Fixed
O&
M
$
1,793
$
1,829
$
36
2.0%

(
5d)
Capital
Cost
$
676
$
686
$
9
1.4%

(
6)
Pre­
Tax
Income
(
Millions;
$
2002)
$
3,419
$
3,287
($
132)
­
3.9%

(
7)
Variable
Production
Costs
($
2002/
MWh)
$
17.39
$
17.39
$
0.00
0.0%

FRCC
(
1)
Total
Domestic
Capacity
(
MW)
52,849
52,735
(
115)
­
0.2%

(
1a)
Existing
39,262
39,152
(
109)
­
0.3%

(
1b)
New
Additions
13,588
13,582
(
5)
0.0%

(
1c)
Repowering
Additions
0
0
0
0.0%

(
1d)
Closures
812
812
0
0.0%

(
2a)
Energy
Price
($
2002/
MWh)
$
29.41
$
29.78
$
0.37
1.3%

(
2b)
Capacity
Price
($
2002/
KW/
yr)
$
38.90
$
36.79
($
2.11)
­
5.4%

(
3)
Generation
(
GWh)
198,664
198,669
5
0.0%

(
4)
Revenues
(
Millions;
$
2002)
$
7,898
$
7,857
($
42)
­
0.5%

(
5)
Costs
(
Millions;
$
2002)
$
5,809
$
5,978
$
170
2.9%

(
5a)
Fuel
Cost
$
3,264
$
3,286
$
22
0.7%

(
5b)
Variable
O&
M
$
374
$
374
$
0
0.1%

(
5c)
Fixed
O&
M
$
1,213
$
1,357
$
144
11.9%
Addendum
to
Section
316(
b)
Phase
II
NODA
 
Economic
Impacts
June
3,
2003
Page
26
Table
9:
Market­
Level
Waterbody/
Capacity­
Based
Option
(
2013)

Economic
Measures
Base
Case
WB/
C­
Based
Option
Difference
%
Change
(
5d)
Capital
Cost
$
958
$
961
$
3
0.3%

(
6)
Pre­
Tax
Income
(
Millions;
$
2002)
$
2,089
$
1,878
($
211)
­
10.1%

(
7)
Variable
Production
Costs
($
2002/
MWh)
$
18.31
$
18.42
$
0.11
0.6%

MAAC
(
1)
Total
Domestic
Capacity
(
MW)
65,308
65,116
(
191)
­
0.3%

(
1a)
Existing
56,326
56,143
(
183)
­
0.3%

(
1b)
New
Additions
7,324
7,321
(
2)
0.0%

(
1c)
Repowering
Additions
1,658
1,652
(
6)
­
0.4%

(
1d)
Closures
2,831
2,831
0
0.0%

(
2a)
Energy
Price
($
2002/
MWh)
$
27.06
$
27.26
$
0.20
0.7%

(
2b)
Capacity
Price
($
2002/
KW/
yr)
$
51.34
$
50.73
($
0.62)
­
1.2%

(
3)
Generation
(
GWh)
283,007
282,733
(
274)
­
0.1%

(
4)
Revenues
(
Millions;
$
2002)
$
11,009
$
11,009
$
0
0.0%

(
5)
Costs
(
Millions;
$
2002)
$
6,447
$
6,720
$
273
4.2%

(
5a)
Fuel
Cost
$
3,111
$
3,150
$
38
1.2%

(
5b)
Variable
O&
M
$
582
$
576
($
7)
­
1.2%

(
5c)
Fixed
O&
M
$
1,959
$
2,204
$
246
12.5%

(
5d)
Capital
Cost
$
794
$
790
($
4)
­
0.6%

(
6)
Pre­
Tax
Income
(
Millions;
$
2002)
$
4,562
$
4,289
($
273)
­
6.0%

(
7)
Variable
Production
Costs
($
2002/
MWh)
$
13.05
$
13.18
$
0.12
1.0%

MAIN
(
1)
Total
Domestic
Capacity
(
MW)
61,357
61,375
17
0.0%

(
1a)
Existing
50,629
50,110
(
519)
­
1.0%

(
1b)
New
Additions
10,729
11,265
536
5.0%

(
1c)
Repowering
Additions
0
0
0
0.0%

(
1d)
Closures
6,113
6,632
519
8.5%

(
2a)
Energy
Price
($
2002/
MWh)
$
23.11
$
23.08
($
0.03)
­
0.1%

(
2b)
Capacity
Price
($
2002/
KW/
yr)
$
56.09
$
56.29
$
0.19
0.3%

(
3)
Generation
(
GWh)
285,997
285,952
(
45)
0.0%
Addendum
to
Section
316(
b)
Phase
II
NODA
 
Economic
Impacts
June
3,
2003
Page
27
Table
9:
Market­
Level
Waterbody/
Capacity­
Based
Option
(
2013)

Economic
Measures
Base
Case
WB/
C­
Based
Option
Difference
%
Change
(
4)
Revenues
(
Millions;
$
2002)
$
10,045
$
10,048
$
3
0.0%

(
5)
Costs
(
Millions;
$
2002)
$
5,875
$
5,918
$
43
0.7%

(
5a)
Fuel
Cost
$
2,931
$
2,970
$
39
1.3%

(
5b)
Variable
O&
M
$
589
$
589
$
0
­
0.1%

(
5c)
Fixed
O&
M
$
1,625
$
1,606
($
19)
­
1.2%

(
5d)
Capital
Cost
$
730
$
753
$
23
3.2%

(
6)
Pre­
Tax
Income
(
Millions;
$
2002)
$
4,170
$
4,130
($
40)
­
1.0%

(
7)
Variable
Production
Costs
($
2002/
MWh)
$
12.31
$
12.45
$
0.14
1.1%

MAPP
(
1)
Total
Domestic
Capacity
(
MW)
36,628
36,582
(
46)
­
0.1%

(
1a)
Existing
32,672
32,672
0
0.0%

(
1b)
New
Additions
3,957
3,910
(
46)
­
1.2%

(
1c)
Repowering
Additions
0
0
0
0.0%

(
1d)
Closures
476
476
0
0.0%

(
2a)
Energy
Price
($
2002/
MWh)
$
21.84
$
21.84
$
0.00
0.0%

(
2b)
Capacity
Price
($
2002/
KW/
yr)
$
52.96
$
52.92
($
0.03)
­
0.1%

(
3)
Generation
(
GWh)
186,892
186,505
(
386)
­
0.2%

(
4)
Revenues
(
Millions;
$
2002)
$
5,995
$
5,984
($
11)
­
0.2%

(
5)
Costs
(
Millions;
$
2002)
$
3,489
$
3,496
$
6
0.2%

(
5a)
Fuel
Cost
$
1,721
$
1,713
($
8)
­
0.5%

(
5b)
Variable
O&
M
$
387
$
387
$
0
0.0%

(
5c)
Fixed
O&
M
$
1,024
$
1,041
$
17
1.7%

(
5d)
Capital
Cost
$
357
$
354
($
3)
­
0.8%

(
6)
Pre­
Tax
Income
(
Millions;
$
2002)
$
2,505
$
2,488
($
18)
­
0.7%

(
7)
Variable
Production
Costs
($
2002/
MWh)
$
11.28
$
11.26
($
0.02)
­
0.2%

NPCC
(
1)
Total
Domestic
Capacity
(
MW)
73,476
73,377
(
99)
­
0.1%

(
1a)
Existing
59,323
59,090
(
233)
­
0.4%

(
1b)
New
Additions
2,889
2,771
(
119)
­
4.1%
Addendum
to
Section
316(
b)
Phase
II
NODA
 
Economic
Impacts
June
3,
2003
Page
28
Table
9:
Market­
Level
Waterbody/
Capacity­
Based
Option
(
2013)

Economic
Measures
Base
Case
WB/
C­
Based
Option
Difference
%
Change
(
1c)
Repowering
Additions
11,264
11,516
252
2.2%

(
1d)
Closures
4,107
4,107
0
0.0%

(
2a)
Energy
Price
($
2002/
MWh)
$
30.03
$
30.24
$
0.21
0.7%

(
2b)
Capacity
Price
($
2002/
KW/
yr)
$
46.74
$
44.96
($
1.78)
­
3.8%

(
3)
Generation
(
GWh)
286,959
286,242
(
717)
­
0.3%

(
4)
Revenues
(
Millions;
$
2002)
$
11,791
$
11,703
($
88)
­
0.7%

(
5)
Costs
(
Millions;
$
2002)
$
8,036
$
8,167
$
132
1.6%

(
5a)
Fuel
Cost
$
4,660
$
4,641
($
19)
­
0.4%

(
5b)
Variable
O&
M
$
384
$
378
($
5)
­
1.3%

(
5c)
Fixed
O&
M
$
1,795
$
1,943
$
148
8.3%

(
5d)
Capital
Cost
$
1,198
$
1,205
$
7
0.6%

(
6)
Pre­
Tax
Income
(
Millions;
$
2002)
$
3,755
$
3,536
($
219)
­
5.8%

(
7)
Variable
Production
Costs
($
2002/
MWh)
$
17.57
$
17.54
($
0.04)
­
0.2%

SERC
(
1)
Total
Domestic
Capacity
(
MW)
205,307
204,839
(
468)
­
0.2%

(
1a)
Existing
164,544
164,440
(
104)
­
0.1%

(
1b)
New
Additions
40,762
40,399
(
363)
­
0.9%

(
1c)
Repowering
Additions
0
0
0
0.0%

(
1d)
Closures
0
0
0
0.0%

(
2a)
Energy
Price
($
2002/
MWh)
$
24.81
$
24.82
$
0.01
0.0%

(
2b)
Capacity
Price
($
2002/
KW/
yr)
$
49.34
$
49.35
$
0.01
0.0%

(
3)
Generation
(
GWh)
987,086
988,072
986
0.1%

(
4)
Revenues
(
Millions;
$
2002)
$
34,607
$
34,621
$
13
0.0%

(
5)
Costs
(
Millions;
$
2002)
$
21,363
$
21,556
$
193
0.9%

(
5a)
Fuel
Cost
$
10,832
$
10,860
$
28
0.3%

(
5b)
Variable
O&
M
$
1,837
$
1,838
$
1
0.1%

(
5c)
Fixed
O&
M
$
5,375
$
5,545
$
169
3.1%

(
5d)
Capital
Cost
$
3,319
$
3,312
($
6)
­
0.2%

(
6)
Pre­
Tax
Income
(
Millions;
$
2002)
$
13,244
$
13,065
($
179)
­
1.4%
Addendum
to
Section
316(
b)
Phase
II
NODA
 
Economic
Impacts
June
3,
2003
Page
29
Table
9:
Market­
Level
Waterbody/
Capacity­
Based
Option
(
2013)

Economic
Measures
Base
Case
WB/
C­
Based
Option
Difference
%
Change
(
7)
Variable
Production
Costs
($
2002/
MWh)
$
12.83
$
12.85
$
0.02
0.1%

SPP
(
1)
Total
Domestic
Capacity
(
MW)
51,363
51,422
60
0.1%

(
1a)
Existing
48,956
48,935
(
21)
0.0%

(
1b)
New
Additions
2,407
2,445
38
1.6%

(
1c)
Repowering
Additions
0
43
43
0.0%

(
1d)
Closures
0
0
0
0.0%

(
2a)
Energy
Price
($
2002/
MWh)
$
24.16
$
24.24
$
0.09
0.4%

(
2b)
Capacity
Price
($
2002/
KW/
yr)
$
45.06
$
44.70
($
0.36)
­
0.8%

(
3)
Generation
(
GWh)
227,801
228,366
566
0.2%

(
4)
Revenues
(
Millions;
$
2002)
$
7,812
$
7,830
$
18
0.2%

(
5)
Costs
(
Millions;
$
2002)
$
4,384
$
4,416
$
33
0.7%

(
5a)
Fuel
Cost
$
2,701
$
2,713
$
12
0.4%

(
5b)
Variable
O&
M
$
427
$
429
$
2
0.4%

(
5c)
Fixed
O&
M
$
1,060
$
1,074
$
14
1.3%

(
5d)
Capital
Cost
$
195
$
200
$
5
2.5%

(
6)
Pre­
Tax
Income
(
Millions;
$
2002)
$
3,429
$
3,414
($
15)
­
0.4%

(
7)
Variable
Production
Costs
($
2002/
MWh)
$
13.73
$
13.76
$
0.03
0.2%

WSCC
(
1)
Total
Domestic
Capacity
(
MW)
173,587
173,405
(
182)
­
0.1%

(
1a)
Existing
152,459
148,091
(
4,368)
­
2.9%

(
1b)
New
Additions
14,122
16,354
2,232
15.8%

(
1c)
Repowering
Additions
7,006
8,960
1,954
27.9%

(
1d)
Closures
705
3,979
3,274
464.4%

(
2a)
Energy
Price
($
2002/
MWh)
$
26.45
$
26.60
$
0.15
0.6%

(
2b)
Capacity
Price
($
2002/
KW/
yr)
$
27.05
$
25.69
($
1.36)
­
5.0%

(
3)
Generation
(
GWh)
784,128
784,104
(
24)
0.0%

(
4)
Revenues
(
Millions;
$
2002)
$
25,026
$
24,924
($
102)
­
0.4%

(
5)
Costs
(
Millions;
$
2002)
$
15,307
$
15,633
$
325
2.1%
Addendum
to
Section
316(
b)
Phase
II
NODA
 
Economic
Impacts
June
3,
2003
Page
30
Table
9:
Market­
Level
Waterbody/
Capacity­
Based
Option
(
2013)

Economic
Measures
Base
Case
WB/
C­
Based
Option
Difference
%
Change
(
5a)
Fuel
Cost
$
8,012
$
8,333
$
321
4.0%

(
5b)
Variable
O&
M
$
1,201
$
1,166
($
35)
­
2.9%

(
5c)
Fixed
O&
M
$
4,269
$
4,066
($
203)
­
4.7%

(
5d)
Capital
Cost
$
1,825
$
2,067
$
242
13.3%

(
6)
Pre­
Tax
Income
(
Millions;
$
2002)
$
9,719
$
9,291
($
427)
­
4.4%

(
7)
Variable
Production
Costs
($
2002/
MWh)
$
11.75
$
12.11
$
0.37
3.1%

Source:
IPM
analysis:
Model
runs
for
Section
316(
b)
NODA
Base
Case
and
the
waterbody/
capacity­
based
option
(
EPA
electricity
demand).

Table
10
repeats
the
information
presented
in
Table
8
but,
to
facilitate
a
comparison
of
the
results
using
the
two
different
electricity
demand
assumptions,
adds
the
equivalent
results
from
Exhibit
4
of
the
NODA.
The
columns
labeled
"
AEO"
represent
the
NODA
results
based
on
AEO
electricity
demand
assumptions;
the
columns
labeled"
EPA"
represent
the
results
from
Table
8
based
on
EPA
electricity
demand
assumptions.
The
table
highlights
differences
between
the
two
cases
of
greater
than
or
equal
to
0.5
percent
with
bold
font
and
grey
cell
shading.
For
a
description
of
the
metrics
presented
in
this
table,
please
refer
to
the
introduction
of
Table
8.
Addendum
to
Section
316(
b)
Phase
II
NODA
 
Economic
Impacts
June
3,
2003
Page
31
Table
10:
Comparison
of
Market­
Level
Impacts
of
the
Waterbody/
Capacity­
Based
Option
(
2013)

NERC
Region
Baseline
Capacity
(
MW)
Incremental
Capacity
Closures
(
MW)
Closures
as
%
of
Baseline
Capacity
Change
in
Variable
Production
Cost
per
MWh
Change
in
Energy
Price
per
MWh
Change
in
Pre­
Tax
Income
EPA
AEO
EPA
AEO
EPA
AEO
EPA
AEO
EPA
AEO
EPA
AEO
ECAR
122,082
133,048
0
0
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
0.5%
­
0.2%
0.8%
­
0.9%
1.3%

ERCOT
80,228
86,609
0
0
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
1.2%
1.5%
1.7%
­
3.9%
­
0.1%

FRCC
52,849
57,078
0
0
0.0%
0.0%
0.6%
1.7%
1.3%
3.8%
­
10.1%
­
5.4%

MAAC
65,308
71,441
0
0
0.0%
0.0%
1.0%
1.3%
0.7%
1.4%
­
6.0%
­
4.1%

MAIN
61,357
66,420
519
1,012
0.8%
1.5%
1.1%
2.2%
­
0.1%
1.6%
­
1.0%
1.4%

MAPP
36,628
39,694
0
0
0.0%
0.0%
­
0.2%
0.3%
0.0%
1.8%
­
0.7%
2.0%

NPCC
73,476
77,557
0
0
0.0%
0.0%
­
0.2%
1.2%
0.7%
1.1%
­
5.8%
­
3.3%

SERC
205,307
220,567
0
0
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
1.0%
0.0%
1.4%
­
1.4%
0.2%

SPP
51,363
55,711
0
0
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
0.6%
0.4%
1.5%
­
0.4%
1.2%

WSCC
173,587
186,001
3,274
2,150
1.9%
1.2%
3.1%
2.9%
0.6%
1.4%
­
4.4%
­
1.7%

Total
922,185
994,126
3,793
3,162
0.4%
0.3%
0.7%
1.2%
n/
a
n/
a
­
2.8%
­
0.5%

Source:
IPM
analysis:
Model
runs
for
Section
316(
b)
NODA
Base
Case
and
the
waterbody/
capacity­
based
option
(
EPA
and
AEO
electricity
demand).

The
comparison
of
the
waterbody/
capacity­
based
option
using
the
two
different
electricity
demand
assumptions
show
the
differences
listed
below.
It
should
be
noted
that
the
direction
of
the
differences
is
not
systematic,
i.
e.,
in
some
cases,
impacts
are
greater
under
the
AEO
assumptions;
in
other
cases,
impacts
are
greater
under
the
EPA
assumptions.

<
Total
incremental
capacity
closures
are
631
MW
higher
under
the
EPA
assumptions
than
under
the
AEO
assumptions.
This
corresponds
to
less
than
0.07
percent
of
total
baseline
capacity.

<
Closures
as
a
percentage
of
baseline
capacity
differs
by
0.5
percent
or
more
in
two
NERC
regions:
in
MAIN,
incremental
closures
as
a
percentage
of
baseline
capacity
are
0.7
percent
higher
under
the
AEO
assumptions
than
under
the
EPA
assumptions;
in
WSCC
incremental
closures
as
a
percentage
of
baseline
capacity
are
0.7
higher
under
the
EPA
assumptions
than
under
the
AEO
assumptions.

<
The
increase
in
variable
production
cost
per
MWh
is
0.5
percent
or
more
under
the
AEO
assumptions
than
under
the
EPA
assumptions
in
five
NERC
regions
(
ERCOT,
FRCC,
MAIN,
NPPC,
and
SERC)
and
for
the
U.
S.
as
a
whole.

<
The
increase
in
energy
prices
is
0.5
percent
or
more
under
the
AEO
assumptions
than
under
the
EPA
Addendum
to
Section
316(
b)
Phase
II
NODA
 
Economic
Impacts
June
3,
2003
Page
32
assumptions
in
all
but
two
NERC
regions
(
ERCOT
and
NPCC).

<
The
loss
in
pre­
tax
income
is
greater
by
0.5
percent
or
more
under
the
EPA
assumptions
than
under
the
AEO
assumptions
in
all
ten
NERC
regions
and
the
U.
S.
as
a
whole.

<
For
all
other
measures
and
regions,
the
results
under
the
two
different
electricity
demand
assumptions
are
within
0.5
percent
of
each
other.

II.
2.
Analysis
for
In­
Scope
Phase
II
Facilities
as
a
Group
(
2013)

The
analysis
of
the
in­
scope
Phase
II
facilities
as
a
group
is
largely
similar
to
the
market­
level
analysis
described
in
Section
II.
1
above,
except
that
the
base
case
and
policy
option
totals
only
include
the
economic
activities
of
the
531
in­
scope
Phase
II
facilities
represented
by
the
IPM.
Tables
11
and
12
are
equivalent
tables,
respectively,
to
Exhibit
5
of
the
NODA
and
Table
B8­
3
of
EBA
Chapter
B8,
as
updated
for
the
NODA
(
DCN
5­
3003).
While
somewhat
repetitive,
both
tables
are
presented
here
to
allow
for
comparison
with
the
previously
published
materials.
Table
13
repeats
information
from
Table
11
but
adds
the
results
from
Exhibit
5
of
the
NODA.
This
table
further
facilitates
comparison
of
the
results
for
the
waterbody/
capacity­
based
option
using
EPA's
and
AEO's
respective
electricity
demand
growth
assumptions.

Table
11
below
(
equivalent
to
NODA
Exhibit
5)
presents
five
measures
used
by
EPA
to
assess
the
impacts
on
Phase
II
facilities
associated
with
the
waterbody/
capacity­
based
option:
(
1)
incremental
capacity
closures,

calculated
as
the
difference
between
capacity
closures
under
the
waterbody/
capacity­
based
option
and
capacity
closures
under
the
base
case;
(
2)
incremental
capacity
closures
as
a
percentage
of
baseline
capacity;
(
3)

postcompliance
changes
in
variable
production
costs
per
MWh,
calculated
as
the
sum
of
total
fuel
and
variable
O&
M
costs
divided
by
total
generation;
(
4)
post­
compliance
changes
in
electricity
generation;
and
(
5)
post­
compliance
changes
in
pre­
tax
income,
where
pretax
income
is
defined
as
total
revenues
minus
the
sum
of
fixed
and
variable
O&
M
costs,
fuel
costs,
and
capital
costs.

Table
11:
Facility­
Level
Impacts
of
the
Waterbody/
Capacity­
Based
Option
(
2013)

NERC
Region
Baseline
Capacity
(
MW)
Incremental
Capacity
Closures
(
MW)
Closures
as
%
of
Baseline
Capacity
Change
in
Variable
Production
Cost
($/
MWh)
Change
in
Generation
Change
in
Pre­
Tax
Income
ECAR
82,281
0
0.0%
0.2%
0.1%
­
1.4%

ERCOT
43,498
0
0.0%
­
0.9%
­
2.5%
­
6.4%

FRCC
27,537
0
0.0%
0.9%
­
3.5%
­
13.6%

MAAC
33,590
0
0.0%
0.2%
­
1.5%
­
10.2%

MAIN
34,451
519
1.5%
0.6%
­
1.2%
­
1.3%
Addendum
to
Section
316(
b)
Phase
II
NODA
 
Economic
Impacts
June
3,
2003
Page
33
Table
11:
Facility­
Level
Impacts
of
the
Waterbody/
Capacity­
Based
Option
(
2013)

NERC
Region
Baseline
Capacity
(
MW)
Incremental
Capacity
Closures
(
MW)
Closures
as
%
of
Baseline
Capacity
Change
in
Variable
Production
Cost
($/
MWh)
Change
in
Generation
Change
in
Pre­
Tax
Income
MAPP
15,727
0
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
­
1.4%

NPCC
37,842
0
0.0%
­
0.9%
­
2.7%
­
12.9%

SERC
107,450
0
0.0%
­
0.2%
­
0.4%
­
2.0%

SPP
20,471
0
0.0%
0.5%
0.4%
­
0.9%

WSCC
27,206
3,290
12.1%
10.0%
­
36.1%
­
40.9%

Total
430,053
3,809
0.9%
­
0.4%
­
2.8%
­
4.9%

Source:
IPM
analysis:
Model
runs
for
Section
316(
b)
NODA
Base
Case
and
the
waterbody/
capacity­
based
option
(
EPA
electricity
demand).

Table
12
below
(
equivalent
to
EBA
Table
B8­
3)
presents
six
impact
measures
for
the
group
of
Phase
II
facilities:

(
1)
capacity
changes,
including
changes
in
the
number
and
capacity
of
closure
facilities;
(
2)
generation
changes;

(
3)
revenue
changes;
(
4)
cost
changes,
including
changes
in
fuel
costs,
variable
O&
M
costs,
fixed
O&
M
costs,

and
capital
costs;
(
5)
changes
in
pre­
tax
income;
and
(
6)
changes
in
variable
production
costs
per
MWh
of
generation,
where
variable
production
cost
is
defined
as
the
sum
of
fuel
cost
and
variable
O&
M
cost.
For
each
measure,
the
table
presents
the
results
for
the
base
case
and
the
waterbody/
capacity­
based
option,
the
absolute
difference
between
the
two
cases,
and
the
percentage
difference.

Table
12:
Facility­
Level
Impacts
of
the
Waterbody/
Capacity­
Based
Option
(
2013)

Economic
Measures
Base
Case
WB/
C­
Based
Option
Difference
%
Change
TOTAL
(
1)
Total
Domestic
Capacity
(
MW)
430,053
424,309
(
5,744)
­
1.3%

(
1a)
Closures
 
Number
of
Facilities
12
15
3
25.0%

(
1b)
Closures
 
Capacity
(
MW)
14,566
18,375
3,809
26.2%

(
2)
Generation
(
GWh)
2,298,699
2,234,113
(
64,587)
­
2.8%

(
3)
Revenues
(
Millions,
$
2002)
$
77,474
$
75,347
($
2,127)
­
2.7%

(
4)
Cost
(
Millions,
$
2002)
$
47,229
$
46,584
($
645)
­
1.4%

(
4a)
Fuel
Cost
$
24,173
$
23,363
($
810)
­
3.4%

(
4b)
Variable
O&
M
$
5,118
$
5,006
($
112)
­
2.2%
Addendum
to
Section
316(
b)
Phase
II
NODA
 
Economic
Impacts
June
3,
2003
Page
34
Table
12:
Facility­
Level
Impacts
of
the
Waterbody/
Capacity­
Based
Option
(
2013)

Economic
Measures
Base
Case
WB/
C­
Based
Option
Difference
%
Change
(
4c)
Fixed
O&
M
$
14,869
$
15,458
$
588
4.0%

(
4d)
Capital
Cost
$
3,068
$
2,757
($
311)
­
10.1%

(
5)
Pre­
Tax
Income
(
Millions,
$
2002)
$
30,245
$
28,763
($
1,482)
­
4.9%

(
6)
Variable
Production
Costs
($
2002/
MWh)
$
12.74
$
12.70
($
0.05)
­
0.4%

ECAR
(
1)
Total
Domestic
Capacity
(
MW)
82,281
82,281
0
0.0%

(
1a)
Closures
 
Number
of
Facilities
0
0
0
0.0%

(
1b)
Closures
 
Capacity
(
MW)
1
1
0
0.0%

(
2)
Generation
(
GWh)
524,305
524,664
358
0.1%

(
3)
Revenues
(
Millions,
$
2002)
$
16,772
$
16,782
$
10
0.1%

(
4)
Cost
(
Millions,
$
2002)
$
9,545
$
9,655
$
110
1.2%

(
4a)
Fuel
Cost
$
4,868
$
4,878
$
9
0.2%

(
4b)
Variable
O&
M
$
1,283
$
1,288
$
6
0.4%

(
4c)
Fixed
O&
M
$
2,980
$
3,074
$
94
3.1%

(
4d)
Capital
Cost
$
414
$
416
$
2
0.4%

(
5)
Pre­
Tax
Income
(
Millions,
$
2002)
$
7,227
$
7,127
($
100)
­
1.4%

(
6)
Variable
Production
Costs
($
2002/
MWh)
$
11.73
$
11.75
$
0.02
0.2%

ERCOT
(
1)
Total
Domestic
Capacity
(
MW)
43,498
43,367
(
131)
­
0.3%

(
1a)
Closures
 
Number
of
Facilities
0
0
0
0.0%

(
1b)
Closures
 
Capacity
(
MW)
0
0
0
0.0%

(
2)
Generation
(
GWh)
154,120
150,309
(
3,811)
­
2.5%

(
3)
Revenues
(
Millions,
$
2002)
$
5,541
$
5,368
($
172)
­
3.1%

(
4)
Cost
(
Millions,
$
2002)
$
3,754
$
3,696
($
58)
­
1.5%

(
4a)
Fuel
Cost
$
2,012
$
1,937
($
75)
­
3.7%

(
4b)
Variable
O&
M
$
432
$
425
($
7)
­
1.6%

(
4c)
Fixed
O&
M
$
1,188
$
1,224
$
37
3.1%

(
4d)
Capital
Cost
$
122
$
110
($
12)
­
10.0%

(
5)
Pre­
Tax
Income
(
Millions,
$
2002)
$
1,786
$
1,672
($
114)
­
6.4%
Addendum
to
Section
316(
b)
Phase
II
NODA
 
Economic
Impacts
June
3,
2003
Page
35
Table
12:
Facility­
Level
Impacts
of
the
Waterbody/
Capacity­
Based
Option
(
2013)

Economic
Measures
Base
Case
WB/
C­
Based
Option
Difference
%
Change
(
6)
Variable
Production
Costs
($
2002/
MWh)
$
15.86
$
15.71
($
0.15)
­
0.9%

FRCC
(
1)
Total
Domestic
Capacity
(
MW)
27,537
27,427
(
109)
­
0.4%

(
1a)
Closures
 
Number
of
Facilities
0
0
0
0.0%

(
1b)
Closures
 
Capacity
(
MW)
812
812
0
0.0%

(
2)
Generation
(
GWh)
81,081
78,233
(
2,848)
­
3.5%

(
3)
Revenues
(
Millions,
$
2002)
$
3,424
$
3,325
($
98)
­
2.9%

(
4)
Cost
(
Millions,
$
2002)
$
1,945
$
2,047
$
103
5.3%

(
4a)
Fuel
Cost
$
1,081
$
1,051
($
30)
­
2.8%

(
4b)
Variable
O&
M
$
185
$
181
($
4)
­
2.2%

(
4c)
Fixed
O&
M
$
673
$
815
$
142
21.1%

(
4d)
Capital
Cost
$
5
$
0
($
5)
­
100.0%

(
5)
Pre­
Tax
Income
(
Millions,
$
2002)
$
1,479
$
1,278
($
201)
­
13.6%

(
6)
Variable
Production
Costs
($
2002/
MWh)
$
15.61
$
15.75
$
0.13
0.9%

MAAC
(
1)
Total
Domestic
Capacity
(
MW)
33,590
33,397
(
193)
­
0.6%

(
1a)
Closures
 
Number
of
Facilities
2
2
0
0.0%

(
1b)
Closures
 
Capacity
(
MW)
2,831
2,831
0
0.0%

(
2)
Generation
(
GWh)
168,704
166,191
(
2,513)
­
1.5%

(
3)
Revenues
(
Millions,
$
2002)
$
6,253
$
6,192
($
60)
­
1.0%

(
4)
Cost
(
Millions,
$
2002)
$
3,520
$
3,738
$
218
6.2%

(
4a)
Fuel
Cost
$
1,626
$
1,607
($
19)
­
1.1%

(
4b)
Variable
O&
M
$
344
$
337
($
7)
­
2.2%

(
4c)
Fixed
O&
M
$
1,359
$
1,606
$
247
18.1%

(
4d)
Capital
Cost
$
191
$
188
($
3)
­
1.4%

(
5)
Pre­
Tax
Income
(
Millions,
$
2002)
$
2,732
$
2,454
($
278)
­
10.2%

(
6)
Variable
Production
Costs
($
2002/
MWh)
$
11.68
$
11.70
$
0.02
0.2%

MAIN
(
1)
Total
Domestic
Capacity
(
MW)
34,451
33,932
(
519)
­
1.5%
Addendum
to
Section
316(
b)
Phase
II
NODA
 
Economic
Impacts
June
3,
2003
Page
36
Table
12:
Facility­
Level
Impacts
of
the
Waterbody/
Capacity­
Based
Option
(
2013)

Economic
Measures
Base
Case
WB/
C­
Based
Option
Difference
%
Change
(
1a)
Closures
 
Number
of
Facilities
4
5
1
25.0%

(
1b)
Closures
 
Capacity
(
MW)
6,113
6,632
519
8.5%

(
2)
Generation
(
GWh)
215,083
212,461
(
2,622)
­
1.2%

(
3)
Revenues
(
Millions,
$
2002)
$
6,807
$
6,712
($
94)
­
1.4%

(
4)
Cost
(
Millions,
$
2002)
$
3,833
$
3,777
($
56)
­
1.4%

(
4a)
Fuel
Cost
$
1,960
$
1,948
($
12)
­
0.6%

(
4b)
Variable
O&
M
$
484
$
482
($
3)
­
0.6%

(
4c)
Fixed
O&
M
$
1,281
$
1,255
($
26)
­
2.0%

(
4d)
Capital
Cost
$
107
$
93
($
15)
­
13.9%

(
5)
Pre­
Tax
Income
(
Millions,
$
2002)
$
2,974
$
2,935
($
39)
­
1.3%

(
6)
Variable
Production
Costs
($
2002/
MWh)
$
11.36
$
11.44
$
0.07
0.6%

MAPP
(
1)
Total
Domestic
Capacity
(
MW)
15,727
15,727
0
0.0%

(
1a)
Closures
 
Number
of
Facilities
1
1
0
0.0%

(
1b)
Closures
 
Capacity
(
MW)
476
476
0
0.0%

(
2)
Generation
(
GWh)
109,770
109,761
(
8)
0.0%

(
3)
Revenues
(
Millions,
$
2002)
$
3,182
$
3,182
$
0
0.0%

(
4)
Cost
(
Millions,
$
2002)
$
1,935
$
1,953
$
18
0.9%

(
4a)
Fuel
Cost
$
1,000
$
1,000
$
0
0.0%

(
4b)
Variable
O&
M
$
225
$
225
$
0
0.1%

(
4c)
Fixed
O&
M
$
597
$
614
$
18
2.9%

(
4d)
Capital
Cost
$
114
$
114
$
0
0.0%

(
5)
Pre­
Tax
Income
(
Millions,
$
2002)
$
1,247
$
1,230
($
17)
­
1.4%

(
6)
Variable
Production
Costs
($
2002/
MWh)
$
11.15
$
11.16
$
0.00
0.0%

NPCC
(
1)
Total
Domestic
Capacity
(
MW)
37,842
37,551
(
291)
­
0.8%

(
1a)
Closures
 
Number
of
Facilities
4
4
0
0.0%

(
1b)
Closures
 
Capacity
(
MW)
4,107
4,107
0
0.0%

(
2)
Generation
(
GWh)
167,753
163,190
(
4,563)
­
2.7%
Addendum
to
Section
316(
b)
Phase
II
NODA
 
Economic
Impacts
June
3,
2003
Page
37
Table
12:
Facility­
Level
Impacts
of
the
Waterbody/
Capacity­
Based
Option
(
2013)

Economic
Measures
Base
Case
WB/
C­
Based
Option
Difference
%
Change
(
3)
Revenues
(
Millions,
$
2002)
$
6,728
$
6,539
($
190)
­
2.8%

(
4)
Cost
(
Millions,
$
2002)
$
5,194
$
5,203
$
8
0.2%

(
4a)
Fuel
Cost
$
2,804
$
2,702
($
102)
­
3.6%

(
4b)
Variable
O&
M
$
277
$
268
($
9)
­
3.3%

(
4c)
Fixed
O&
M
$
1,245
$
1,392
$
147
11.8%

(
4d)
Capital
Cost
$
869
$
841
($
28)
­
3.2%

(
5)
Pre­
Tax
Income
(
Millions,
$
2002)
$
1,534
$
1,336
($
198)
­
12.9%

(
6)
Variable
Production
Costs
($
2002/
MWh)
$
18.37
$
18.20
($
0.17)
­
0.9%

SERC
(
1)
Total
Domestic
Capacity
(
MW)
107,450
107,346
(
104)
­
0.1%

(
1a)
Closures
 
Number
of
Facilities
0
0
0
0.0%

(
1b)
Closures
 
Capacity
(
MW)
0
0
0
0.0%

(
2)
Generation
(
GWh)
640,660
637,927
(
2,733)
­
0.4%

(
3)
Revenues
(
Millions,
$
2002)
$
20,926
$
20,867
($
59)
­
0.3%

(
4)
Cost
(
Millions,
$
2002)
$
12,086
$
12,203
$
117
1.0%

(
4a)
Fuel
Cost
$
5,895
$
5,850
($
45)
­
0.8%

(
4b)
Variable
O&
M
$
1,369
$
1,366
($
3)
­
0.2%

(
4c)
Fixed
O&
M
$
3,986
$
4,155
$
169
4.2%

(
4d)
Capital
Cost
$
837
$
833
($
4)
­
0.4%

(
5)
Pre­
Tax
Income
(
Millions,
$
2002)
$
8,840
$
8,664
($
176)
­
2.0%

(
6)
Variable
Production
Costs
($
2002/
MWh)
$
11.34
$
11.31
($
0.03)
­
0.2%

SPP
(
1)
Total
Domestic
Capacity
(
MW)
20,471
20,471
0
0.0%

(
1a)
Closures
 
Number
of
Facilities
0
0
0
0.0%

(
1b)
Closures
 
Capacity
(
MW)
0
0
0
0.0%

(
2)
Generation
(
GWh)
109,084
109,501
416
0.4%

(
3)
Revenues
(
Millions,
$
2002)
$
3,466
$
3,475
$
10
0.3%

(
4)
Cost
(
Millions,
$
2002)
$
1,881
$
1,905
$
24
1.3%

(
4a)
Fuel
Cost
$
1,071
$
1,081
$
10
0.9%
Addendum
to
Section
316(
b)
Phase
II
NODA
 
Economic
Impacts
June
3,
2003
Page
38
Table
12:
Facility­
Level
Impacts
of
the
Waterbody/
Capacity­
Based
Option
(
2013)

Economic
Measures
Base
Case
WB/
C­
Based
Option
Difference
%
Change
(
4b)
Variable
O&
M
$
244
$
246
$
2
0.7%

(
4c)
Fixed
O&
M
$
557
$
570
$
13
2.4%

(
4d)
Capital
Cost
$
8
$
8
($
1)
­
7.5%

(
5)
Pre­
Tax
Income
(
Millions,
$
2002)
$
1,585
$
1,570
($
15)
­
0.9%

(
6)
Variable
Production
Costs
($
2002/
MWh)
$
12.06
$
12.12
$
0.06
0.5%

WSCC
(
1)
Total
Domestic
Capacity
(
MW)
27,206
22,810
(
4,397)
­
16.2%

(
1a)
Closures
 
Number
of
Facilities
1
3
2
200.0%

(
1b)
Closures
 
Capacity
(
MW)
226
3,516
3,290
1455.8%

(
2)
Generation
(
GWh)
128,039
81,876
(
46,162)
­
36.1%

(
3)
Revenues
(
Millions,
$
2002)
$
4,376
$
2,903
($
1,473)
­
33.7%

(
4)
Cost
(
Millions,
$
2002)
$
3,536
$
2,406
($
1,129)
­
31.9%

(
4a)
Fuel
Cost
$
1,857
$
1,310
($
546)
­
29.4%

(
4b)
Variable
O&
M
$
275
$
188
($
87)
­
31.5%

(
4c)
Fixed
O&
M
$
1,004
$
752
($
252)
­
25.1%

(
4d)
Capital
Cost
$
400
$
155
($
245)
­
61.2%

(
5)
Pre­
Tax
Income
(
Millions,
$
2002)
$
841
$
497
($
344)
­
40.9%

(
6)
Variable
Production
Costs
($
2002/
MWh)
$
16.65
$
18.31
$
1.66
10.0%

Source:
IPM
analysis:
Model
runs
for
Section
316(
b)
NODA
Base
Case
and
the
waterbody/
capacity­
based
option
(
EPA
electricity
demand).

Table
13
repeats
the
information
presented
in
Table
11
but,
to
facilitate
a
comparison
of
the
results
using
the
two
different
electricity
demand
assumptions,
adds
the
equivalent
results
from
Exhibit
5
of
the
NODA.
The
columns
labeled
"
AEO"
represent
the
NODA
results
based
on
AEO
electricity
demand
assumptions;
the
columns
labeled"
EPA"
represent
the
results
from
Table
11
based
on
EPA
electricity
demand
assumptions.
The
table
highlights
differences
between
the
two
cases
of
greater
than
or
equal
to
0.5
percent
with
bold
font
and
grey
cell
shading.
For
a
description
of
the
metrics
presented
in
this
table,
please
refer
to
the
introduction
of
Table
11.
Addendum
to
Section
316(
b)
Phase
II
NODA
 
Economic
Impacts
June
3,
2003
Page
39
Table
13:
Comparison
of
Facility­
Level
Impacts
of
the
Waterbody/
Capacity­
Based
Option
(
2013)

NERC
Region
Baseline
Capacity
(
MW)
Incremental
Capacity
Closures
(
MW)
Closures
as
%
of
Baseline
Capacity
Change
in
Variable
Production
Cost
per
MWh
Change
in
Generation
Change
in
Pre­
Tax
Income
EPA
AEO
EPA
AEO
EPA
AEO
EPA
AEO
EPA
AEO
EPA
AEO
ECAR
82,281
82,258
0
0
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
0.3%
0.1%
0.1%
­
1.4%
1.0%

ERCOT
43,498
44,400
0
0
0.0%
0.0%
­
0.9%
­
0.3%
­
2.5%
­
0.6%
­
6.4%
­
0.5%

FRCC
27,537
27,513
0
0
0.0%
0.0%
0.9%
0.3%
­
3.5%
­
3.5%
­
13.6%
­
10.5%

MAAC
33,590
34,696
0
0
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
0.8%
­
1.5%
­
1.0%
­
10.2%
­
7.7%

MAIN
34,451
34,944
519
1,012
1.5%
2.9%
0.6%
1.2%
­
1.2%
­
2.5%
­
1.3%
1.5%

MAPP
15,727
15,723
0
0
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
­
1.4%
2.0%

NPCC
37,842
37,219
0
0
0.0%
0.0%
­
0.9%
0.8%
­
2.7%
­
0.6%
­
12.9%
­
9.2%

SERC
107,450
107,458
0
0
0.0%
0.0%
­
0.2%
0.7%
­
0.4%
0.1%
­
2.0%
­
0.1%

SPP
20,471
20,471
0
0
0.0%
0.0%
0.5%
­
0.7%
0.4%
­
0.6%
­
0.9%
1.4%

WSCC
27,206
28,093
3,290
2,150
12.1%
7.7%
10.0%
0.5%
­
36.1%
­
29.2%
­
40.9%
­
30.7%

Total
430,053
432,776
3,809
3,162
0.9%
0.7%
­
0.4%
0.0%
­
2.8%
­
2.1%
­
4.9%
­
2.1%

Source:
IPM
analysis:
Model
runs
for
Section
316(
b)
NODA
Base
Case
and
the
waterbody/
capacity­
based
option
(
EPA
and
AEO
electricity
demand).

The
comparison
of
the
waterbody/
capacity­
based
option
using
the
two
different
electricity
demand
assumptions
show
the
differences
listed
below.
It
should
be
noted
that
the
direction
of
the
differences
is
not
systematic,
i.
e.,
in
some
cases,
impacts
are
greater
under
the
AEO
assumptions;
in
other
cases,
impacts
are
greater
under
the
EPA
assumptions.

<
Total
incremental
capacity
closures
are
647
MW
higher
under
the
EPA
assumptions
than
under
the
AEO
assumptions.
This
corresponds
to
approximately
0.2
percent
of
Phase
II
baseline
capacity.

<
Closures
as
a
percentage
of
baseline
capacity
differs
by
0.5
percent
or
more
in
two
NERC
regions:
in
MAIN,
incremental
closures
as
a
percentage
of
baseline
capacity
are
1.4
percent
higher
under
the
AEO
assumptions
than
under
the
EPA
assumptions;
in
WSCC
incremental
closures
as
a
percentage
of
baseline
capacity
are
4.4
higher
under
the
EPA
assumptions
than
under
the
AEO
assumptions.

<
The
change
in
variable
production
cost
per
MWh
differs
by
0.5
percent
or
more
in
all
but
two
NERC
regions:
in
MAAC
and
MAIN,
it
increases
more
under
the
AEO
assumptions
than
under
EPA
assumptions;
in
FRCC
and
WSCC,
it
increases
more
under
the
EPA
assumptions
than
under
AEO
assumptions;
in
NPCC
and
SERC,
it
increases
under
the
AEO
assumptions
but
decreases
under
the
EPA
Addendum
to
Section
316(
b)
Phase
II
NODA
 
Economic
Impacts
June
3,
2003
Page
40
assumptions;
in
SPP,
the
opposite
is
the
case;
in
ERCOT,
it
decreases
under
both
assumptions.

<
The
change
in
generation
differs
by
0.5
percent
or
more
in
six
NERC
regions
and
for
all
Phase
II
facilities:
in
ERCOT,
NPCC,
WSCC,
and
overall,
Phase
II
facilities
lose
more
generation
under
the
EPA
assumptions
than
under
the
AEO
assumptions;
in
MAIN,
they
lose
more
generation
under
the
AEO
assumptions
than
under
the
EPA
assumptions;
in
SPP
they
experience
an
increase
in
generation
under
the
EPA
assumptions
and
a
decrease
under
the
AEO
assumptions;
in
SERC,
the
opposite
is
the
case.

<
The
loss
in
pre­
tax
income
is
greater
by
0.5
percent
or
more
under
the
EPA
assumptions
than
under
the
AEO
assumptions
in
all
ten
NERC
regions
and
the
U.
S.
as
a
whole.

<
For
all
other
measures
and
regions,
the
results
under
the
two
different
electricity
demand
assumptions
are
within
0.5
percent
of
each
other.

II.
3.
Analysis
for
Individual
Phase
II
Facilities
(
2013)

In
addition
to
effects
of
the
waterbody/
capacity­
based
option
on
the
in­
scope
Phase
II
facilities
as
a
group,
there
may
be
shifts
in
economic
performance
among
individual
facilities
subject
to
Phase
II
regulation.
To
assess
such
potential
shifts,
EPA
analyzed
facility­
specific
changes
in
(
1)
capacity
utilization
(
defined
as
generation
divided
by
capacity
multiplied
by
the
number
of
hours
per
year
 
8,760);
(
2)
generation;
(
3)
revenues;
(
4)
variable
production
costs
per
MWh
of
generation
(
defined
as
variable
O&
M
cost
plus
fuel
cost
divided
by
generation);
(
5)

fuel
cost
per
MWh
of
generation;
and
(
6)
pre­
tax
income.
For
each
measure,
EPA
determined
the
number
of
Phase
II
facilities
that
experience
no
changes,
or
an
increase
or
a
reduction
within
three
ranges:
1
percent
or
less,
1
to
3
percent,
and
3
percent
or
more.

Table
14
(
equivalent
to
Notice
Exhibit
6
and
EBA
Table
B8­
4)
presents
the
total
number
of
Phase
II
facilities
with
different
degrees
of
change
in
each
of
these
measures.
This
table
excludes
28
facilities
with
significant
status
changes
including
(
twelve
facilities
are
baseline
closures,
three
facilities
are
policy
closures,
and
13
facilities
changed
their
repowering
decisions
between
the
base
case
and
policy
case).
These
facilities
are
either
not
operating
at
all
in
the
base
case
or
the
post­
compliance
case,
or
they
experience
fundamental
changes
in
the
type
of
units
they
operate;
therefore,
the
measures
presented
below
would
not
be
meaningful
for
these
facilities.

In
addition,
the
changes
in
production
cost
per
MWh
and
fuel
cost
per
MWh
could
not
be
developed
for
55
facilities
with
zero
generation
in
either
the
base
case
or
post­
compliance
scenario.
For
these
facilities,
the
change
in
production
cost
per
MWh
and
fuel
cost
per
MWh
is
indicated
as
"
n/
a."
Addendum
to
Section
316(
b)
Phase
II
NODA
 
Economic
Impacts
June
3,
2003
Page
41
Table
14:
Number
of
Phase
II
Facilities
with
Operational
Changes
 
Waterbody/
Capacity­
Based
Option
(
2013)
a
Reduction
Increase
No
Change
N/
A
Economic
Measure
<=
1%
1­
3%
>
3%
<=
1%
1­
3%
>
3%

Change
in
Capacity
Utilizationb
3
13
29
9
14
10
425
0
Change
in
Generation
2
22
47
5
11
20
396
0
Change
in
Revenue
85
60
70
83
8
16
181
0
Change
in
Production
Cost/
MWh
36
12
10
131
28
20
211
55
Change
in
Fuel
Cost/
MWh
46
6
11
30
29
17
309
55
Change
in
Pre­
Tax
Income
104
103
247
20
8
5
16
0
a
For
all
measures
percentages
used
to
assign
facilities
to
impact
categories
have
been
rounded
to
the
nearest
10th
of
a
percent.
b
The
change
in
capacity
utilization
is
the
difference
between
the
capacity
utilization
percentages
in
the
base
case
and
post­
compliance
case.
For
all
other
measures,
the
change
is
expressed
as
the
percentage
change
between
the
base
case
and
post­
compliance
values.

Source:
IPM
analysis:
Model
runs
for
Section
316(
b)
NODA
Base
Case
and
the
waterbody/
capacity­
based
option
(
EPA
electricity
demand).