Document ID: EPA-R09-OAR-2019-0241-0001
Agency: epa
Document Type: Proposed Rule
Title: Air Quality State Implementation Plans; Approvals and Promulgations: California; Coachella Valley; 2008 8-Hour Ozone Nonattainment Area Requirements
Posted Date: 2020-01-17T05:00Z

[Federal Register Volume 85, Number 12 (Friday, January 17, 2020)]
[Proposed Rules]
[Pages 2949-2974]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]
[FR Doc No: 2020-00538]

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ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY

40 CFR Part 52

[EPA-R09-OAR-2019-0241; FRL-10003-99-Region 9]

Approval of Air Quality Implementation Plans; California; 
Coachella Valley; 2008 8-Hour Ozone Nonattainment Area Requirements

AGENCY: Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).

ACTION: Proposed rule.

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SUMMARY: The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is proposing to 
approve, or conditionally approve, all or portions of two state 
implementation plan (SIP) revisions submitted by the State of 
California to meet Clean Air Act requirements for the 2008 8-hour ozone 
national ambient air quality standards (NAAQS or ``standards'') in the 
Coachella Valley ozone nonattainment area (``Coachella Valley''). The 
two SIP revisions include the portions of the ``Final 2016 Air Quality 
Management Plan'' and the ``2018 Updates to the California State 
Implementation Plan'' that address ozone in the Coachella Valley. These 
submittals address the nonattainment area requirements for the 2008 8-
hour ozone NAAQS, including the requirements for an emissions 
inventory, emissions statements, attainment demonstration, reasonable 
further progress (RFP), reasonably available control measures, 
contingency measures, and motor vehicle emissions budgets. The EPA is 
proposing to approve these submittals as meeting all the applicable 
ozone nonattainment area requirements except for the contingency 
measure requirements, for which the EPA is proposing to conditionally 
approve the RFP contingency measures and to defer action on the 
attainment contingency measure.

DATES: Any comments must be submitted by February 18, 2020.

ADDRESSES: Submit your comments, identified by Docket ID No. EPA-R09-
OAR-2019-0241 at https://www.regulations.gov. For comments submitted at 
Regulations.gov, follow the online instructions for submitting 
comments. Once submitted, comments cannot be edited or removed from 
Regulations.gov. The EPA may publish any comment received to its public 
docket. Do not submit electronically any information you consider to be 
Confidential Business Information (CBI) or other information whose 
disclosure is restricted by statute. Multimedia submissions (audio, 
video, etc.) must be accompanied by a written comment.

[[Page 2950]]

The written comment is considered the official comment and should 
include discussion of all points you wish to make. The EPA will 
generally not consider comments or comment contents located outside of 
the primary submission (i.e., on the web, cloud, or other file sharing 
system). For additional submission methods, please contact the person 
identified in the FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT section. For the full 
EPA public comment policy, information about CBI or multimedia 
submissions, and general guidance on making effective comments, please 
visit http://www.epa.gov/dockets/commenting-epa-dockets.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: John Ungvarsky, Air Planning Office 
(AIR-2), EPA Region IX, 75 Hawthorne Street, San Francisco, CA 94105, 
(415) 972-3963, or by email at ungvarsky.john@epa.gov.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:  Throughout this document, ``we,'' ``us'' 
and ``our'' refer to the EPA.

Table of Contents

I. Regulatory Context
    A. Ozone Standards, Area Designations and SIPs
    B. The Coachella Valley 2008 Ozone Nonattainment Area
    C. Clean Air Act and Regulatory Requirements for 2008 Ozone 
Nonattainment Area SIPs
II. Submissions From the State of California To Address 2008 Ozone 
Requirements in the Coachella Valley
    A. Summary of Submissions
    B. Clean Air Act Procedural Requirements for Adoption and 
Submission of SIP Revisions
III. Review of the 2016 Coachella Valley Ozone SIP
    A. Emissions Inventories
    B. Emissions Statement
    C. Reasonably Available Control Measures Demonstration and 
Control Strategy
    D. Attainment Demonstration
    E. Rate of Progress Plan and Reasonable Further Progress 
Demonstration
    F. Transportation Control Strategies and Measures To Offset 
Emissions Increases From Vehicle Miles Traveled
    G. Contingency Measures
    H. Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets for Transportation Conformity
    I. Other Clean Air Act Requirements Applicable to Severe Ozone 
Nonattainment Areas
IV. Proposed Action
V. Statutory and Executive Order Reviews

I. Regulatory Context

A. Ozone Standards, Area Designations and SIPs

    Ground-level ozone pollution is formed from the reaction of 
volatile organic compounds (VOC) and oxides of nitrogen 
(NOX) in the presence of sunlight.\1\ These two pollutants, 
referred to as ozone precursors, are emitted by many types of sources, 
including on- and off-road motor vehicles and engines, power plants and 
industrial facilities, and smaller area sources such as lawn and garden 
equipment and paints.
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    \1\ The State of California refers to reactive organic gases 
(ROG) in some of its ozone-related SIP submissions. As a practical 
matter, ROG and VOC refer to the same set of chemical constituents, 
and for the sake of simplicity, we refer to this set of gases as VOC 
in this proposed rule.
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    Scientific evidence indicates that adverse public health effects 
occur following exposure to ozone, particularly in children and adults 
with lung disease. Breathing air containing ozone can reduce lung 
function and inflame airways, which can increase respiratory symptoms 
and aggravate asthma or other lung diseases.\2\
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    \2\ ``Fact Sheet--2008 Final Revisions to the National Ambient 
Air Quality Standards for Ozone,'' dated March 2008.
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    Under section 109 of the Clean Air Act (CAA or ``the Act''), the 
EPA promulgates NAAQS for pervasive air pollutants, such as ozone. The 
NAAQS are concentration levels that the attainment and maintenance of 
which the EPA has determined to be requisite to protect public health 
and welfare. Following promulgation of a new or revised NAAQS, the EPA 
is required by the CAA to designate areas throughout the nation as 
either attaining or not attaining the standards.
    On February 8, 1979, under section 109 of the CAA, the EPA 
established primary and secondary NAAQS for ozone at 0.12 parts per 
million (ppm) averaged over a 1-hour period.\3\ On July 18, 1997, the 
EPA revised the primary and secondary standards for ozone to set the 
acceptable level of ozone in the ambient air at 0.08 ppm averaged over 
an 8-hour period (``1997 ozone NAAQS'').\4\
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    \3\ See 44 FR 8202.
    \4\ See 62 FR 38856. On April 30, 2004, the EPA designated and 
classified areas of the country with respect to the 1997 ozone 
NAAQS. See 69 FR 23858. On July 10, 2019, the EPA granted a request 
from the State of California to reclassify the Coachella Valley 
ozone nonattainment area from ``Severe-15'' to ``Extreme'' for the 
1997 ozone NAAQS. See 84 FR 32841.
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    In 2008, the EPA lowered the 8-hour ozone NAAQS to 0.075 ppm 
(``2008 ozone NAAQS'') to replace the 1997 ozone NAAQS of 0.08 ppm.\5\ 
In 2012, the EPA designated the Coachella Valley as nonattainment for 
the 2008 ozone NAAQS and classified the area as ``Severe-15.'' \6\ 
Areas classified as Severe-15 must attain the NAAQS within 15 years of 
the effective date of the nonattainment designation.\7\
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    \5\ 73 FR 16436 (March 27, 2008). The EPA further tightened the 
8-hour ozone NAAQS to 0.070 ppm in 2015, but this proposed action 
relates to the requirements for the 2008 ozone NAAQS. Information on 
the 2015 ozone NAAQS is available at 80 FR 65292 (October 26, 2015).
    \6\ 77 FR 30088 (May 21, 2012).
    \7\ CAA section 181(a)(1), 40 CFR 51.1102 and 51.1103(a).
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    Designations of nonattainment for a given NAAQS trigger 
requirements under the CAA to prepare and submit SIP revisions. The SIP 
revisions that are the subject of today's proposed action address the 
Severe-15 nonattainment area requirements that apply to the Coachella 
Valley for the 2008 ozone NAAQS.
    Under California law, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) is 
the state agency that is responsible for the adoption and submission to 
the EPA of California SIPs and SIP revisions, and it has broad 
authority to establish emissions standards and other requirements for 
mobile sources. Local and regional air pollution control districts in 
California are responsible for the regulation of stationary sources and 
are generally responsible for the development of regional air quality 
management plans (AQMPs or ``plans''). In the Coachella Valley, the 
South Coast Air Quality Management District (SCAQMD or ``District'') 
develops and adopts AQMPs to address CAA planning requirements 
applicable to that region. Such plans are then submitted to CARB for 
adoption and submittal to the EPA as revisions to the California SIP.

B. The Coachella Valley 2008 Ozone Nonattainment Area

    The Coachella Valley is located within Riverside County, and its 
boundaries generally align with the Riverside County portion of the 
Salton Sea Air Basin (SSAB). For a precise description of the 
geographic boundaries of the Coachella Valley, see 40 CFR 81.305.
    Prior AQMPs and state control measures developed by the District 
and CARB have produced significant emissions reductions over the years 
and improved air quality in the Coachella Valley. For instance, the 8-
hour ozone design value for the Coachella Valley decreased from 0.110 
ppm to 0.088 ppm from 1995 to 2015, despite increases in population and 
vehicular activity.\8\
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    \8\ 2016 AQMP, Appendix II (``Current Air Quality''), Table A-8. 
For the 8-hour ozone NAAQS, the design value at any given monitoring 
site is the 3-year average of the annual fourth highest daily 
maximum 8-hour average ambient air quality ozone concentration. The 
maximum design value among the various ozone monitoring sites is the 
design value for the area.
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    The Coachella Valley is downwind from the South Coast Air Basin 
(``South

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Coast'') and is subject to significant transport of ozone from that 
area; both ozone nonattainment areas are regulated by the SCAQMD. The 
Final 2016 Air Quality Management Plan describes ozone transport from 
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the South Coast as follows:

    Atmospheric ozone in the Riverside county portion of the SSAB is 
both directly transported from the Basin and formed photochemically 
from precursors emitted upwind. The precursors are emitted in 
greatest quantity in the coastal and central Los Angeles County 
areas of the Basin. The Basin's prevailing sea breeze causes 
polluted air to be transported inland. As the air is being 
transported inland, ozone is formed, with peak concentrations 
occurring in the inland valleys of the Basin, extending from eastern 
San Fernando Valley through the San Gabriel Valley into the 
Riverside-San Bernardino area and the adjacent mountains. As the air 
is transported still further inland into the Coachella Valley 
through the San Gorgonio Pass, ozone concentrations typically 
decrease due to dilution, although ozone standards can still be 
exceeded.\9\
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    \9\ ``Final 2016 Air Quality Management Plan,'' SCAQMD, March 
2017, 7-9. See also 2007 AQMP, 7-23 (describing ozone transport 
through the San Gorgonio Pass and citing early studies documenting 
this transport).

    Because of the transport from the South Coast into the Coachella 
Valley, continued progress in the South Coast towards meeting the 1997 
and 2008 ozone NAAQS is critical for the Coachella Valley to attain the 
2008 ozone NAAQS.

C. Clean Air Act and Regulatory Requirements for 2008 Ozone 
Nonattainment Area SIPs

    States must implement the 2008 ozone NAAQS under title I, part D of 
the CAA, including sections 171-179B of subpart 1 (``Nonattainment 
Areas in General'') and sections 181-185 of subpart 2 (``Additional 
Provisions for Ozone Nonattainment Areas''). To assist states in 
developing effective plans to address ozone nonattainment problems, in 
2015, the EPA issued a SIP Requirements Rule (SRR) for the 2008 ozone 
NAAQS (``2008 Ozone SRR'') that addressed implementation of the 2008 
standards, including attainment dates, requirements for emissions 
inventories, attainment and reasonable further progress (RFP) 
demonstrations, among other SIP elements, as well as the transition 
from the 1997 ozone NAAQS to the 2008 ozone NAAQS and associated anti-
backsliding requirements.\10\ The regulatory requirements of the 2008 
Ozone SRR are codified at 40 CFR part 51, subpart AA. We discuss the 
CAA and regulatory planning requirements for the elements of 2008 ozone 
plans relevant to this proposal in more detail below.
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    \10\ 80 FR 12264 (March 6, 2015). Anti-backsliding requirements 
are the provisions applicable to revoked NAAQS (including the 1979 
1-hour ozone NAAQS and the 1997 ozone NAAQS) as described in CAA 
section 172(e).
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    The EPA's 2008 Ozone SRR was challenged, and on February 16, 2018, 
the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit (``D.C. Circuit'') 
published its decision in South Coast Air Quality Management District 
v. EPA (``South Coast II'') \11\ vacating portions of the 2008 Ozone 
SRR. The only aspect of the South Coast II decision that affects this 
proposed action is the vacatur of the alternative baseline year for 
RFP. More specifically, the 2008 Ozone SRR required states to develop 
the baseline emissions inventory for RFP using the emissions for the 
most recent calendar year for which states submit a triennial inventory 
to the EPA under subpart A (``Air Emissions Reporting Requirements'') 
of 40 CFR part 51, which was 2011. However, the 2008 Ozone SRR allowed 
states to use an alternative year, between 2008 and 2012, for the 
baseline emissions inventory provided that the state demonstrated why 
the alternative baseline year was appropriate. In the South Coast II 
decision, the D.C. Circuit vacated the provisions of the 2008 Ozone SRR 
that allowed states to use an alternative baseline year for 
demonstrating RFP.
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    \11\ South Coast Air Quality Management District v. EPA, 882 
F.3d 1138 (D.C. Cir. 2018). The term ``South Coast II'' is used in 
reference to the 2018 court decision to distinguish it from a 
decision published in 2006 also referred to as ``South Coast.'' The 
earlier decision involved a challenge to the EPA's Phase 1 
implementation rule for the 1997 ozone NAAQS. South Coast Air 
Quality Management Dist. v. EPA, 472 F.3d 882 (D.C. Cir. 2006).
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II. Submissions From the State of California To Address 2008 Ozone 
Requirements in the Coachella Valley

A. Summary of Submissions

    In this document, we are proposing action on portions of two SIP 
revisions that are described in detail in the following paragraphs. 
Collectively, we refer to the relevant portions of the two SIP 
revisions as the ``2016 Coachella Valley Ozone SIP.''
1. SCAQMD's 2016 Air Quality Management Plan
    On April 27, 2017, CARB submitted the Final 2016 Air Quality 
Management Plan (March 2017) (``2016 AQMP'') to the EPA as a revision 
to the California SIP.\12\ The 2016 AQMP addresses the nonattainment 
area requirements for the South Coast for the 2008 8-hour ozone NAAQS, 
the 2006 fine particulate matter (PM2.5) NAAQS, and the 2012 
PM2.5 NAAQS, and for the Coachella Valley for the 2008 8-
hour ozone NAAQS. It also updates the approved attainment 
demonstrations for the 1979 1-hour ozone NAAQS and 1997 8-hour ozone 
NAAQS for the South Coast and adds new measures to reduce the reliance 
on section 182(e)(5) new technology measures to attain those standards. 
On October 1, 2019, the EPA approved portions of the 2016 AQMP and 
other submittals (collectively referred to as the ``2016 South Coast 
Ozone SIP'') \13\ with respect to numerous requirements for the South 
Coast relating to the 1979 1-hour, 1997 8-hour, and 2008 8-hour ozone 
NAAQS.\14\ In today's notice, we are proposing action on the portions 
of the 2016 AQMP that address the 2008 ozone NAAQS for the Coachella 
Valley.
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    \12\ Letter dated April 27, 2017, from Richard Corey, Executive 
Officer, CARB, to Alexis Strauss, Acting Regional Administrator, EPA 
Region IX.
    \13\ The 2016 South Coast Ozone SIP includes five submittals: 
The 2016 AQMP, the ``Revised Proposed 2016 State Strategy for the 
State Implementation Plan,'' the ``2018 Updates to the California 
State Implementation Plan,'' the ``Updated Federal 1979 1-Hour Ozone 
Standard Attainment Demonstration,'' and a SCAQMD emissions 
statement rule.
    \14\ 84 FR 52005. The EPA's proposed approval of the 2016 South 
Coast Ozone SIP is at 84 FR 28132 (June 17, 2019). On February 12, 
2019, we approved portions of the 2016 AQMP with respect to the 2006 
PM2.5 NAAQS (except for the related contingency measure 
element). See 84 FR 3305.
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    The SIP revision for the 2016 AQMP includes the various chapters 
and appendices of the 2016 AQMP, described further below, plus the 
District's resolution of adoption for the plan (District Resolution 17-
2) and CARB's resolution of adoption of the 2016 AQMP as a revision to 
the California SIP (CARB Resolution 17-8) that includes commitments on 
which the 2016 AQMP relies.\15\ With respect to ozone, the 2016 AQMP 
addresses the CAA requirements for emissions inventories, air quality 
modeling demonstrating attainment, reasonably available control 
measures (RACM), RFP, transportation control strategies and measures, 
and contingency measures for failure to make RFP, among other 
requirements.
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    \15\ SCAQMD Board Resolution 17-2, March 3, 2017; CARB Board 
Resolution 17-8, 2016 Air Quality Management Plan for Ozone and 
PM2.5 in the South Coast and the Coachella Valley, March 
23, 2017.
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    The 2016 AQMP is organized into eleven chapters. Most of the 2016 
AQMP is directly relevant to the ozone and PM2.5 NAAQS in 
the South Coast, and our review for this action addresses only those 
portions of the 2016 AQMP that address the 2008 ozone NAAQS for

[[Page 2952]]

the Coachella Valley.\16\ The Coachella Valley is located in the SSAB, 
which is separate from the upwind South Coast and faces different air 
quality challenges. Chapter 7, ``Current and Future Air Quality--Desert 
Nonattainment Areas SIP'' of the 2016 AQMP addresses CAA requirements 
for the 2008 ozone NAAQS in the Coachella Valley.
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    \16\ The following chapters or portions thereof in the 2016 AQMP 
were submitted for information only and are not subject to review as 
part of the SIP revision: The portion of Chapter 6 that is titled 
``California Clean Air Act Requirements'' and that discusses 
compliance with state law requirements for clean air plans; Chapter 
8, ``Looking Beyond Current Requirements,'' assesses the South 
Coast's status with respect to the 2015 8-hour ozone standard of 
0.070 ppm; Chapter 9, ``Air Toxic Control Strategy,'' examines the 
ongoing efforts to reduce health risk from toxic air contaminants, 
co-benefits from reducing criteria pollutants, and potential future 
actions; and Chapter 10, ``Climate and Energy,'' provides a 
description of current and projected energy demand and supply issues 
in the South Coast, and the relationship between air quality 
improvement and greenhouse gas mitigation goals. As noted 
previously, we are not taking action in this rulemaking on the 
portions of the 2016 AQMP that relate only to the South Coast.
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    Additional chapters in the 2016 AQMP also discuss the Coachella 
Valley and provide relevant background. Chapter 1, ``Introduction,'' 
introduces the 2016 AQMP, including its purpose, historical air quality 
progress in the South Coast and Coachella Valley, and the District's 
approach to air quality planning. Chapter 2, ``Air Quality and Health 
Effects,'' discusses current air quality in comparison with federal 
health-based air pollution standards. Chapter 4, ``Control Strategy and 
Implementation,'' presents the control strategy, specific measures, and 
implementation schedules to attain the air quality standards by the 
specified attainment dates. Chapter 5, ``Future Air Quality,'' 
describes the modeling and modeled attainment demonstration. Chapter 6, 
``Federal and State Clean Air Act Requirements,'' discusses specific 
federal and state requirements, including anti-backsliding requirements 
for revoked standards. Chapter 11, ``Public Process and 
Participation,'' describes the District's public outreach effort 
associated with the development of the 2016 AQMP. A glossary is 
provided at the end of the document, presenting definitions of commonly 
used terms found in the 2016 AQMP.
    The 2016 AQMP also includes the following technical appendices:
     Appendix I (``Health Effects'') presents a summary of 
scientific findings on the health effects of ambient air pollutants.
     Appendix II (``Current Air Quality'') contains a detailed 
summary of the air quality in 2015, along with prior year trends, in 
both the South Coast and the Coachella Valley.
     Appendix III (``Base and Future Year Emission Inventory'') 
presents the 2012 base year emissions inventory and projected emission 
inventories of air pollutants in future attainment years for both 
annual average and summer planning inventories in the South Coast.
     Appendix IV-A (``SCAQMD's Stationary and Mobile Source 
Control Measures'') describes SCAQMD's proposed stationary and mobile 
source control measures to attain the federal ozone and 
PM2.5 standards.
     Appendix IV-B (``CARB's Mobile Source Strategy'') 
describes CARB's proposed 2016 strategy to attain health-based federal 
air quality standards.
     Appendix IV-C (``Regional Transportation Strategy and 
Control Measures'') describes the Southern California Association of 
Governments' (SCAG) ``Final 2016-2040 Regional Transportation Plan/
Sustainable Communities Strategy'' (2016 RTP/SCS) and transportation 
control measures.
     Appendix V (``Modeling and Attainment Demonstrations'') 
provides the details of the regional modeling for the attainment 
demonstration.
     Appendix VI (``Compliance with Other Clean Air Act 
Requirements'') provides the District's demonstration that the 2016 
AQMP complies with specific CAA requirements.
    Attainment of the 2008 ozone NAAQS in the Coachella Valley is 
heavily dependent on emission reductions occurring in the adjacent 
South Coast. The emission reductions in the South Coast are described 
in the 2016 South Coast Ozone SIP. As discussed in section III.D 
(Attainment Demonstration) of the EPA's proposed approval of the 2016 
South Coast Ozone SIP,\17\ the ozone attainment demonstrations for the 
1997 and 2008 ozone NAAQS include commitments made by the District in 
the 2016 AQMP and by CARB in the ``Revised Proposed 2016 State Strategy 
for the State Implementation Plan'' (March 7, 2017) (``2016 State 
Strategy''). The 2016 State Strategy does not include specific 
commitments for the Coachella Valley. For details on the District and 
CARB emissions reduction commitments in the 2016 South Coast Ozone SIP, 
see the EPA's June 17, 2019 proposed approval action at 84 FR 28132.
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    \17\ 84 FR 28132 (June 17, 2019). On October 1, 2019, the EPA 
finalized its approval of the 2016 South Coast Ozone SIP. See 84 FR 
52005.
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2. CARB's 2018 Updates to the California State Implementation Plan
    On December 5, 2018, CARB submitted the 2018 Updates to the 
California State Implementation Plan (``2018 SIP Update'') to the EPA 
as a revision to the California SIP.\18\ CARB adopted the 2018 SIP 
Update on October 25, 2018. CARB developed the 2018 SIP Update in 
response to the court's decision in South Coast II vacating the 2008 
Ozone SRR with respect to the use of an alternate baseline year for 
demonstrating RFP, and to address contingency measure requirements in 
the wake of the court decision in Bahr v. EPA.\19\ The 2018 SIP Update 
includes updates for 8 different California ozone nonattainment areas. 
We previously approved the San Joaquin Valley and South Coast portions 
of the 2018 SIP Update.\20\ The 2018 SIP Update includes an RFP 
demonstration using the required 2011 baseline year for the Coachella 
Valley for the 2008 ozone NAAQS.\21\
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    \18\ Letter dated December 5, 2018, from Richard Corey, 
Executive Officer, CARB, to Mike Stoker, Regional Administrator, EPA 
Region IX.
    \19\ Bahr v. EPA, 836 F.3d 1218 (9th Cir. 2016). In this case, 
the court rejected the EPA's longstanding interpretation of CAA 
section 172(c)(9) as allowing for early implementation of 
contingency measures. The court concluded that a contingency measure 
must take effect at the time the area fails to make RFP or attain by 
the applicable attainment date, not before.
    \20\ 84 FR 11198 (March 25, 2019) (final approval of the San 
Joaquin Valley portion of the 2018 SIP Update) and 84 FR 52005 
(October 1, 2019) (final approval of the South Coast portion of the 
2018 SIP Update).
    \21\ Because we understand the State intended the RFP 
demonstration for the Coachella Valley in the 2018 SIP Update to 
replace the prior RFP demonstration in the 2016 AQMP submitted in 
April 2017, we plan no further action on the RFP demonstration for 
Coachella Valley in the 2016 AQMP.
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    The 2018 SIP Update also includes updated motor vehicle emissions 
budgets and information to support the contingency measure element. To 
supplement the contingency measures element of the 2016 Coachella 
Valley Ozone SIP, the District has committed by letter to modify an 
existing rule or adopt a new rule to create a contingency measure that 
will be triggered if the area fails to meet an RFP milestone or attain 
the 2008 ozone NAAQS.\22\ CARB transmitted the District's letter to the 
EPA and committed to submit the revised District rule to the EPA as a 
SIP revision within 12 months of the EPA's final action on the 
contingency measure element of the 2016 Coachella Valley Ozone SIP.\23\
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    \22\ Letter dated August 2, 2019, from Wayne Nastri, SCAQMD 
Executive Officer, to Richard Corey, Executive Officer, CARB.
    \23\ Letter dated September 9, 2019, from Michael Benjamin, 
Chief, Air Quality and Science Division, CARB, to Amy Zimpfer, 
Associate Director, Air Division, EPA Region IX.

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[[Page 2953]]

B. Clean Air Act Procedural Requirements for Adoption and Submission of 
SIP Revisions

    CAA sections 110(a) and 110(l) require a state to provide 
reasonable public notice and opportunity for public hearing prior to 
the adoption and submission of a SIP or SIP revision. To meet this 
requirement, every SIP submittal should include evidence that adequate 
public notice was given and an opportunity for a public hearing was 
provided consistent with the EPA's implementing regulations in 40 CFR 
51.102.
    Both the District and CARB have satisfied the applicable statutory 
and regulatory requirements for reasonable public notice and hearing 
prior to the adoption and submittal of the SIP revisions that compose 
the 2016 Coachella Valley Ozone SIP. With respect to the 2016 AQMP, the 
District held six regional workshops from July 14 through July 21, 
2016, and four regional hearings on November 15 and 17, 2016, to 
discuss the plan and solicit public input.\24\ On December 19 and 20, 
2016, the District published notices in several local newspapers of a 
public hearing to be held on February 3, 2017, for the adoption of the 
2016 AQMP.\25\ On February 3, 2017, the District held the public 
hearing, and on March 3, 2017, through Resolution 17-2, the District 
adopted the 2016 AQMP and directed the Executive Officer to forward the 
plan to CARB for inclusion in the California SIP.
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    \24\ See 2016 AQMP, Table 11-2.
    \25\ Memorandum dated January 24, 2017, from Denise Garzaro, 
Clerk of the Boards, SCAQMD to Arlene Martinez, Administrative 
Secretary, Planning, Rule Development and Area Sources, SCAQMD. The 
memorandum includes copies of the proofs of publication of the 
notice for the February 3, 2017 public hearing.
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    CARB also provided public notice and opportunity for public comment 
on the 2016 AQMP. On March 6, 2017, CARB released for public review its 
Staff Report for the 2016 AQMP and published a notice of public meeting 
to be held on March 23, 2017, to consider adoption of the 2016 
AQMP.\26\ On March 23, 2017, CARB held the hearing and adopted the 2016 
AQMP as a revision to the California SIP, excluding those portions not 
required to be submitted to the EPA, and directed the Executive Officer 
to submit the 2016 AQMP to the EPA for approval into the California 
SIP.\27\ On April 27, 2017, the Executive Officer of CARB submitted the 
2016 AQMP to the EPA and included the transcript of the hearing held on 
March 23, 2017.\28\ On October 23, 2017, the EPA determined that the 
portions of this submittal applicable to the 2008 ozone NAAQS were 
complete.\29\
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    \26\ Notice of Public Meeting to Consider Adopting the 2016 Air 
Quality Management Plan for Ozone and PM2.5 for the South 
Coast Air Basin and the Coachella Valley signed by Richard Corey, 
Executive Officer, CARB, March 6, 2017.
    \27\ CARB Resolution 17-8, 10.
    \28\ Transcript of the March 23, 2017 Meeting of the State of 
California Air Resources Board.
    \29\ Letter dated October 23, 2017, from Matthew J. Lakin, 
Acting Director, Air Division, EPA Region IX to Richard Corey, 
Executive Officer, CARB.
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    With respect to the 2018 SIP Update, CARB also provided public 
notice and opportunity for public comment. On September 21, 2018, CARB 
released for public review the 2018 SIP Update and published notice of 
a public meeting to be held on October 23, 2018, to consider adoption 
of the 2018 SIP Update.\30\ On October 23, 2018, through Resolution 18-
50, CARB adopted the 2018 SIP Update. On December 5, 2018, CARB 
submitted the 2018 SIP Update to the EPA.
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    \30\ Notice of Public Meeting to Consider the 2018 Updates to 
the California State Implementation Plan signed by Richard Corey, 
Executive Officer, CARB, September 21, 2018.
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    Based on information provided in each of the SIP revisions 
summarized above, the EPA has determined that all hearings were 
properly noticed. Therefore, we find that the submittals of the 2016 
AQMP and the 2018 SIP Update meet the procedural requirements for 
public notice and hearing in CAA sections 110(a) and 110(l) and 40 CFR 
51.102.

III. Review of the 2016 Coachella Valley Ozone SIP

A. Emissions Inventories

1. Statutory and Regulatory Requirements
    CAA sections 172(c)(3) and 182(a)(1) require states to submit for 
each ozone nonattainment area a ``base year inventory'' that is a 
comprehensive, accurate, current inventory of actual emissions from all 
sources of the relevant pollutant or pollutants in the area. In 
addition, the 2008 Ozone SRR requires that the inventory year be 
selected consistent with the baseline year for the RFP demonstration, 
which is the most recent calendar year for which a complete triennial 
inventory is required to be submitted to the EPA under the Air 
Emissions Reporting Requirements.\31\
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    \31\ 2008 Ozone SRR at 40 CFR 51.1115(a) and the Air Emissions 
Reporting Requirements at 40 CFR part 51, subpart A.
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    The EPA has issued guidance on the development of base year and 
future year emissions inventories for 8-hour ozone and other 
pollutants.\32\ Emissions inventories for ozone must include emissions 
of VOC and NOX and represent emissions for a typical ozone 
season weekday.\33\ States should include documentation explaining how 
the emissions data were calculated. In estimating mobile source 
emissions, states should use the latest emissions models and planning 
assumptions available at the time the SIP is developed.\34\
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    \32\ ``Emissions Inventory Guidance for Implementation of Ozone 
and Particulate Matter National Ambient Air Quality Standards 
(NAAQS) and Regional Haze Regulations,'' EPA-454/B-17-002, May 2017. 
At the time the 2016 AQMP was developed, the following EPA emissions 
inventory guidance applied: ``Emissions Inventory Guidance for 
Implementation of Ozone and Particulate Matter National Ambient Air 
Quality Standards (NAAQS) and Regional Haze Regulations'' EPA-454-R-
05-001, November 2005.
    \33\ 40 CFR 51.1115(a) and (c), and 40 CFR 51.1100(bb) and (cc).
    \34\ 80 FR 12264, 12290 (March 6, 2015).
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    Future baseline emissions inventories must reflect the most recent 
population, employment, travel and congestion estimates for the area. 
In this context, ``baseline'' emissions inventories refer to emissions 
estimates for a given year and area that reflect rules and regulations 
and other measures that are already adopted. Future baseline emissions 
inventories are necessary to show the projected effectiveness of SIP 
control measures. Both the base year and future year inventories are 
necessary for photochemical modeling to demonstrate attainment.
2. Summary of State's Submission
    The 2016 AQMP includes a summary of the base year (2012) and future 
year annual average baseline inventories for NOX and VOC for 
the Coachella Valley. Documentation for the inventories is found in 
Chapter 7 and Appendix III of the 2016 AQMP. Additionally, the District 
provided the EPA with supplemental documentation (``2016 AQMP Inventory 
Supplement'') for the 2012 and 2026 ozone season inventories relied on 
in the 2016 AQMP.\35\ The 2018 SIP Update provides detailed 
NOX and VOC inventories for 2011 (the base year used for 
RFP) and 2012, and projected inventories for 2017, 2020, 2023, 2026, 
and 2027. Because ozone levels in the Coachella Valley are typically 
higher from May through October, the

[[Page 2954]]

inventories in the 2016 AQMP Inventory Supplement and the 2018 SIP 
Update represent average summer day emissions. The inventories in the 
2016 AQMP Inventory Supplement and 2018 SIP Update reflect District 
rules adopted prior to December 2015 and CARB rules adopted by November 
2015. For estimating on-road motor vehicle emissions, these inventories 
use EMFAC2014, the EPA-approved version of California's mobile source 
emissions model available at the time the 2016 AQMP and 2018 SIP Update 
were developed.\36\
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    \35\ Email dated June 28, 2019, from Zorik Pirveysian, SCAQMD, 
to John Ungvarsky, EPA, Subject: ``RE: Coachella Valley ozone 
inventory clarification and update on possible contingency 
measures.'' The 2016 AQMP Inventory Supplement consists of two 
attachments to this email, which provide the detailed 2012 and 2026 
ozone season inventories that were used for the summary in the 2016 
AQMP. The inventories were generated on November 30, 2016.
    \36\ EMFAC is short for EMission FACtor. The EPA announced the 
availability of the EMFAC2014 model for use in state implementation 
plan development and transportation conformity in California on 
December 14, 2015. 80 FR 77337. The EPA's approval of the EMFAC2014 
emissions model for SIP and conformity purposes was effective on the 
date of publication of the notice in the Federal Register. On August 
15, 2019, the EPA approved and announced the availability of 
EMFAC2017, the latest update to the EMFAC model for use by State and 
local governments to meet CAA requirements. See 84 FR 41717.
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    The VOC and NOX emissions estimates are grouped into two 
general categories, stationary sources and mobile sources. Stationary 
sources are further divided into ``point'' and ``area'' sources. Point 
sources typically refer to permitted facilities and have one or more 
identified and fixed pieces of equipment and emissions points. Area 
sources consist of widespread and numerous smaller emissions sources, 
such as small permitted facilities and households. The mobile sources 
category is divided into two major subcategories, ``on-road'' and 
``off-road'' mobile sources. On-road mobile sources include light-duty 
automobiles, light-, medium-, and heavy-duty trucks, and motorcycles. 
Off-road mobile sources include aircraft, locomotives, construction 
equipment, mobile equipment, and recreational vehicles.
    Point source emissions for the 2012 base year emissions inventory 
are calculated using reported data from facilities using the District's 
annual emissions reporting program, which applies under District Rule 
301 (``Permitting and Associated Fees'') to stationary sources in the 
Coachella Valley that emit 4 tons per year (tpy) or more of VOC or 
NOX. Area sources include smaller emissions sources 
distributed across the nonattainment area. CARB and the District 
estimate emissions for about 400 area source categories using 
established inventory methods, including publicly-available emissions 
factors and activity information. Activity data are derived from 
national survey data such as the Energy Information Administration or 
from local sources such as the Southern California Gas Company, paint 
suppliers, and District databases. Emissions factors used for the 
estimates come from a number of sources including source tests, 
compliance reports, and the EPA's compilation of emissions factor 
document known as ``AP-42.''
    On-road emissions inventories in the 2016 AQMP Inventory Supplement 
are calculated using CARB's EMFAC2014 model and the travel activity 
data provided by SCAG in the 2016 RTP/SCS.\37\ CARB provided emissions 
inventories for off-road equipment, including construction and mining 
equipment, industrial and commercial equipment, lawn and garden 
equipment, agricultural equipment, ocean-going vessels, commercial 
harbor craft, locomotives, cargo handling equipment, pleasure craft, 
and recreational vehicles. CARB uses several models to estimate 
emissions for more than one hundred off-road equipment categories.\38\ 
Aircraft emissions inventories are developed in conjunction with the 
airports in the region.
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    \37\ See http://scagrtpscs.net/Pages/FINAL2016RTPSCS.aspx. SCAG 
is the metropolitan planning organization for the Coachella Valley 
and surrounding areas. The SCAG region encompasses six counties 
(Imperial, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino and 
Ventura) and 191 cities in an area covering more than 38,000 square 
miles.
    \38\ 2016 AQMP, Appendix III, page III-1-24.
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    Table 1 provides a summary of the District's 2012 base year and 
2026 attainment year baseline emissions estimates in tons per average 
summer day for NOX and VOC. These inventories provide the 
basis for the control measure analysis and the attainment 
demonstrations in the 2016 AQMP. Based on the inventory for 2012, 
stationary and area sources currently account for 39 percent of the VOC 
emissions and less than 5 percent of the NOX emissions in 
the Coachella Valley while mobile sources account for 61 percent of the 
VOC emissions and over 95 percent of the NOX emissions. For 
a more detailed discussion of the methodologies used to develop the 
inventories, see Appendix III of the 2016 AQMP.

             Table 1--Coachella Valley Base Year and Attainment Year Baseline Emissions Inventories
                                 [Summer planning inventory, tons per day (tpd)]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                               2012                            2026
                    Category                     ---------------------------------------------------------------
                                                        NOX             VOC             NOX             VOC
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Stationary and Area Sources.....................             1.2             6.4             1.4             8.8
On-Road Mobile Sources..........................            18.9             6.4             4.1             2.9
Off-Road Mobile Sources.........................             6.5             3.7             3.6             3.3
                                                 ---------------------------------------------------------------
    Total.......................................            26.6            16.5             9.1            15.1
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sources: 2016 AQMP Inventory Supplement and 2018 SIP Update, Table VII-1. The sum of the emissions values may
  not equal the total due to rounding of the numbers.

    Future emissions forecasts are primarily based on demographic and 
economic growth projections provided by SCAG, and control factors 
developed by the District in reference to the 2012 base year. Growth 
factors used to project these baseline inventories are derived mainly 
from data obtained from SCAG.\39\
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    \39\ 2016 AQMP, 7-25, and Appendix III, page III-2-6.
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3. The EPA's Review of the State's Submission
    We have reviewed the 2012 base year emissions inventory in the 2016 
AQMP Inventory Supplement and the inventory methodologies used by the 
District and CARB for consistency with CAA requirements and EPA 
guidance. First, we find that the 2012 inventory includes estimates for 
VOC and NOX for a typical ozone season weekday, and that 
CARB has provided adequate documentation explaining how the emissions 
are calculated. Second, we find that the 2012 base year emissions 
inventory in the 2016 AQMP Inventory Supplement reflects appropriate

[[Page 2955]]

emissions models and methodologies, and, therefore, represents a 
comprehensive, accurate, and current inventory of actual emissions 
during that year in the Coachella Valley nonattainment area. Third, we 
find that selection of year 2012 for the base year emissions inventory 
is appropriate because it is consistent with the 2011 RFP baseline year 
(from the 2018 SIP Update) because both inventories are derived from a 
common set of models and methods. Therefore, the EPA is proposing to 
approve the 2012 emissions inventory in the 2016 AQMP Inventory 
Supplement as meeting the requirements for a base year inventory set 
forth in CAA section 182(a)(1) and 40 CFR 51.1115.\40\
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    \40\ The 2012 base year inventory from the 2016 AQMP Inventory 
Supplement revises and updates the base year emission inventory 
included in the ``8-Hour Ozone State Implementation Plan Emission 
Inventory Submittal'' submitted by CARB on July 17, 2014. Because we 
understand the State intended the 2016 AQMP and the 2016 AQMP 
Inventory Supplement to replace the July 2014 submittal (at least 
with respect to Coachella Valley), we plan no further action on the 
inventory for Coachella Valley submitted by CARB in July 2014.
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    With respect to the 2026 attainment year baseline projections, we 
have reviewed the growth and control factors and find them acceptable 
and conclude that the future baseline emissions projections in the 2016 
AQMP Inventory Supplement reflect appropriate calculation methods and 
the latest planning assumptions. Also, as a general matter, the EPA 
will approve a SIP revision that takes emissions reduction credit for a 
control measure only where the EPA has approved the measure as part of 
the SIP. Thus, to take credit for the emissions reductions from newly-
adopted or amended District rules for stationary sources, the related 
rules must be approved by the EPA into the SIP. Table 2 in the 
technical support document (TSD) accompanying this rulemaking shows 
District rules with post-2012 compliance dates that were incorporated 
in the future year inventories, along with information on EPA approval 
of these rules, and shows that emissions reductions assumed by the 2016 
AQMP for future years for stationary sources are supported by rules 
approved as part of the SIP. With respect to mobile sources, the EPA 
has taken action in recent years to approve CARB mobile source 
regulations into the California SIP.\41\ We therefore find that the 
future year baseline projections in the 2016 AQMP Inventory Supplement 
are properly supported by SIP-approved stationary and mobile source 
measures.\42\
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    \41\ See 81 FR 39424 (June 16, 2016), 82 FR 14446 (March 21, 
2017), and 83 FR 23232 (May 18, 2018).
    \42\ The baseline emissions projections in the 2016 South Coast 
Ozone SIP assume implementation of CARB's Zero Emissions Vehicle 
(ZEV) sales mandate and greenhouse gas (GHG) standards. On September 
27, 2019, the U.S. Department of Transportation and the EPA issued a 
notice of final rulemaking for the Safer Affordable Fuel-Efficient 
(SAFE) Vehicles Rule Part One: One National Program that, among 
other things, withdrew the EPA's 2013 waiver of preemption of CARB's 
ZEV sales mandate and GHG standards. 84 FR 51310. See also proposed 
SAFE rule at 83 FR 42986 (August 24, 2018). However, the agencies' 
final rule withdrawing the 2013 waiver did not include final action 
on the federal fuel economy and GHG vehicle emissions standards from 
the SAFE proposal. If the fuel economy and GHG standards are 
finalized prior to our final rulemaking on the 2016 Coachella Valley 
Ozone SIP, we will evaluate and address, as appropriate, the impact 
of the SAFE action on our proposed action.
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B. Emissions Statement

1. Statutory and Regulatory Requirements
    Section 182(a)(3)(B)(i) of the Act requires states to submit a SIP 
revision requiring owners or operators of stationary sources of VOC or 
NOX to provide the state with statements of actual emissions 
from such sources. Statements must be submitted at least every year and 
must contain a certification that the information contained in the 
statement is accurate to the best knowledge of the individual 
certifying the statement. Section 182(a)(3)(B)(ii) of the Act allows 
states to waive the emissions statement requirement for any class or 
category of stationary sources that emit less than 25 tpy of VOC or 
NOX, if the state provides an inventory of emissions from 
such class or category of sources as part of the base year or periodic 
inventories required under CAA sections 182(a)(1) and 182(a)(3)(A), 
based on the use of emissions factors established by the EPA or other 
methods acceptable to the EPA.
    The preamble of the 2008 Ozone SRR states that if an area has a 
previously approved emissions statement rule for the 1997 ozone NAAQS 
or the 1-hour ozone NAAQS that covers all portions of the nonattainment 
area for the 2008 ozone NAAQS, such rule should be sufficient for 
purposes of the emissions statement requirement for the 2008 ozone 
NAAQS. The state should review the existing rule to ensure it is 
adequate and, if so, may rely on it to meet the emissions statement 
requirement for the 2008 ozone NAAQS.\43\ Where an existing emissions 
statement requirement is still adequate to meet the requirements of 
this rule, states can provide the rationale for that determination to 
the EPA in a written statement in the SIP to meet this requirement. 
States should identify the various requirements and how each is met by 
the existing emissions statement program. Where an emissions statement 
requirement is modified for any reason, states must provide the 
revision to the emissions statement as part of its SIP.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \43\ See 80 FR 12264, at 12291 (March 6, 2015).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

2. Summary of the State's Submission
    The 2016 AQMP addresses compliance with the emissions statement 
requirement in CAA section 182(a)(3)(B) for the 2008 ozone NAAQS by 
reference to District Rule 301 that, among other things, requires 
emissions reporting from all stationary sources of NOX and 
VOC greater than or equal to 4 tpy. District Rule 301 applies 
throughout both the South Coast and the Coachella Valley. On July 12, 
2019, the District adopted revisions to District Rule 301 to meet the 
requirements in CAA section 182(a)(3)(B), and on July 19, 2019, the 
District submitted to CARB a request for Rule 301 to be included into 
the California SIP and forwarded to the EPA. On August 5, 2019, CARB 
adopted and submitted paragraphs (e)(1)(A) and (B), (e)(2), (e)(5) and 
(e)(8) of District Rule 301 to the EPA as a revision to the California 
SIP. The submittal includes CARB Executive Order S-19-011 adopting the 
specified sections of District Rule 301 as a revision to the SIP, a 
copy of District Rule 301 itself, and documentation of public notice 
and opportunity to comment on the draft rule.
3. The EPA's Review of the State's Submission
    On October 1, 2019, as part of our approval of the 2016 South Coast 
Ozone SIP, the EPA approved portions of District Rule 301 (paragraphs 
(e)(1)(A) and (B), (e)(2), (e)(5) and (e)(8)) as meeting the emissions 
statement requirement under CAA section 182(a)(3)(B) for the South 
Coast for the 2008 ozone NAAQS.\44\ Rule 301 is effective throughout 
both the South Coast and the Coachella Valley. Therefore, the approved 
portions of District Rule 301 also satisfy the CAA 182(a)(3)(B) 
requirements for the 2008 ozone NAAQS in the Coachella Valley.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \44\ 84 FR 52005, 52015.
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C. Reasonably Available Control Measures Demonstration and Control 
Strategy

1. Statutory and Regulatory Requirements
    CAA section 172(c)(1) requires that each attainment plan provide 
for the implementation of all RACM as

[[Page 2956]]

expeditiously as practicable (including such reductions in emissions 
from existing sources in the area as may be obtained through 
implementation of reasonably available control technology (RACT)), and 
also provide for attainment of the NAAQS. The 2008 Ozone SRR requires 
that, for each nonattainment area required to submit an attainment 
demonstration, the state concurrently submit a SIP revision 
demonstrating that it has adopted all RACM necessary to demonstrate 
attainment as expeditiously as practicable and to meet any RFP 
requirements.\45\
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    \45\ 40 CFR 51.1112(c).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The EPA has previously provided guidance interpreting the RACM 
requirement in the General Preamble for the Implementation of the Clean 
Air Act Amendments of 1990 (``General Preamble'') and in a memorandum 
entitled ``Guidance on the Reasonably Available Control Measure 
Requirement and Attainment Demonstration Submissions for Ozone 
Nonattainment Areas.'' \46\ In short, to address the requirement to 
adopt all RACM, states should consider all potentially reasonable 
control measures for source categories in the nonattainment area to 
determine whether they are reasonably available for implementation in 
that area and whether they would, if implemented individually or 
collectively, advance the area's attainment date by one year or 
more.\47\ Any measures that are necessary to meet these requirements 
that are not already either federally promulgated, or part of the 
state's SIP, must be submitted in enforceable form as part of the 
state's attainment plan for the area.\48\
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    \46\ See General Preamble, 57 FR 13498, 13560 (April 16, 1992) 
and memorandum dated November 30, 1999, from John Seitz, Director, 
OAQPS, to Regional Air Directors, titled ``Guidance on the 
Reasonably Available Control Measure Requirement and Attainment 
Demonstration Submissions for Ozone Nonattainment Areas.''
    \47\ Id. See also 44 FR 20372 (April 4, 1979), and memorandum 
dated December 14, 2000, from John S. Seitz, Director, OAQPS, to 
Regional Air Directors, titled ``Additional Submission on RACM From 
States with Severe One-Hour Ozone Nonattainment Area SIPs.''
    \48\ For ozone nonattainment areas classified as Moderate or 
above, CAA section 182(b)(2) also requires implementation of RACT 
for all major sources of VOC and for each VOC source category for 
which the EPA has issued a control techniques guideline. CAA section 
182(f) requires that RACT under section 182(b)(2) also apply to 
major stationary sources of NOX. In Severe areas, a major 
source is a stationary source that emits or has the potential to 
emit at least 25 tpy of VOC or NOX (see CAA section 
182(e) and (f)). Under the 2008 Ozone SRR, states were required to 
submit SIP revisions meeting the RACT requirements of CAA sections 
182(b)(2) and 182(f) no later than 24 months after the effective 
date of designation for the 2008 Ozone NAAQS and to implement the 
required RACT measures as expeditiously as practicable but no later 
than January 1 of the 5th year after the effective date of 
designation (see 40 CFR 51.1112(a)). California submitted the CAA 
section 182 RACT SIP for the South Coast and the Coachella Valley on 
July 18, 2014, and the EPA fully approved this submission at 82 FR 
43850 (September 20, 2017).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

2. Summary of the State's Submission
    For the 2016 Coachella Valley Ozone SIP, the District, CARB, and 
SCAG each undertook a process to identify and evaluate potential RACM 
that could contribute to expeditious attainment of the 2008 ozone NAAQS 
in the Coachella Valley. The RACM demonstration for the Coachella 
Valley is the same demonstration undertaken for the 2016 South Coast 
Ozone SIP that the EPA approved on November 1, 2019.\49\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \49\ 84 FR 52005.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

a. District's RACM Analysis
    The District's RACM demonstration for the 2008 ozone NAAQS focuses 
on stationary and area source controls, and it is described in Appendix 
VI-A (``Reasonably Available Control Measures (RACM)/Best Available 
Control Measures (BACM) Demonstration'') of the 2016 AQMP. Appendix VI-
A identifies potential control measures and analyzes these measures for 
emission reduction opportunities, as well as economic and technological 
feasibility. The District's comprehensive demonstration considers 
potential control measures for stationary and area sources located 
throughout the areas under its jurisdiction, including both the South 
Coast (where most of the sources are located) and the Coachella Valley. 
Therefore, the demonstration includes not only all of the source 
categories present in the Coachella Valley, but also the source 
categories found only in the South Coast.
    As a first step in the RACM analysis, the District prepared a 
detailed inventory of emissions sources that emit VOC and 
NOX to identify source categories from which emissions 
reductions would effectively contribute to attainment. Details on the 
methodology and development of the emissions inventory are discussed in 
Chapter 7 and Appendix III of the 2016 AQMP. A total of 76 source 
categories are included in the base year emissions inventory: 46 for 
stationary and area sources and 30 for mobile sources.\50\
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    \50\ 2016 AQMP, Appendix VI-A, Table VI-A-3. The majority of the 
stationary emissions sources included in this inventory are located 
in the South Coast. The 2016 AQMP identifies only two stationary 
sources (i.e., Desert View Power and Imperial Irrigation District) 
emitting 10 tpy or more of either VOC or NOX in 2012 
located within the Coachella Valley. See 2016 AQMP, Appendix III, 
Attachment C. CARB's Facility Search Engine database shows three 
sources (i.e., Desert View Power, Palm Springs International 
Airport, and Sentinel Energy Center LLC) emitting 10 tpy or more of 
either VOC or NOX emissions in 2017 located in the 
Coachella Valley. See the docket for today's action or go to CARB's 
database at https://www.arb.ca.gov/app/emsinv/facinfo/facinfo.php 
and set Air Basin search filter to ``Salton Sea.''
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    For the RACM analysis, the District then compared these source 
categories to its rules for stationary and area sources. This analysis 
builds upon a foundation of District rules developed for earlier ozone 
plans and approved as part of the SIP. We provide a list of the 
District's NOX and VOC rules approved into the California 
SIP in Table 1 of our TSD for this proposed action. The 86 SIP-approved 
District VOC or NOX rules listed in Table 1 of our TSD 
establish emissions limits or other types of emissions controls for a 
wide range of sources, including use of solvents, refineries, gasoline 
storage, architectural coatings, spray booths, various types of 
commercial coatings, boilers, steam generators and process heaters, oil 
and gas production well, marine tank vessel operations, and many more. 
These rules have already provided significant reductions toward 
attainment of the 2008 ozone NAAQS by 2026.
    To demonstrate that the SCAQMD considered all candidate measures 
that are available and technologically and economically feasible, the 
District conducted a six-step analysis, as described below.
Step 1. 2015 Air Quality Technology Symposium (``2015 Symposium'')
    The 2015 Symposium was held on June 10 and 11, 2015, with 
participation of technical experts and the public to solicit new and 
innovative concepts to assist in attaining the 1997 and 2008 ozone 
NAAQS by the applicable attainment dates. The SCAQMD also conducted 
extensive outreach to engage a wide range of stakeholders in the 
process.
Step 2. Reasonably Available Control Technology/Best Available Control 
Technology Analysis
    The District's Reasonably Available Control Technology/Best 
Available Control Technology (RACT/BACT) analysis \51\ found four 
SCAQMD VOC or NOX rules (i.e., District Rules 462 (``Organic 
Liquid Loading''), 1115 (``Motor Vehicle Assembly Line Coating 
Operations''), 1118 (``Control of Emissions from Refinery Flares'') and 
1138 (``Control of Emissions from

[[Page 2957]]

Restaurant Operations'')) that are less stringent than EPA control 
techniques guidelines or analogous rules in other air districts. The 
SCAQMD evaluated the rules as candidate potential measures. See section 
IV of the TSD for this action for the EPA's evaluation of the four 
rules.
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    \51\ BACM, including BACT, is a requirement for certain 
PM2.5 nonattainment areas. BACM is not a requirement for 
ozone nonattainment areas, but because the District addresses both 
PM2.5 and ozone in its 2016 AQMP, the District prepared 
an analysis that addresses both RACT and BACT.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

Step 3. EPA TSDs
    The District researched TSDs from recent EPA rulemakings on SCAQMD 
rules for EPA recommendations on potential control measures. The TSD 
for the EPA's action on District Rule 1125 (``Metal Container, Closure, 
and Coil Coating Operations,'' amended March 7, 2008) was the only 
applicable and recent TSD that met the criteria for review.
Step 4. Control Measures in Other Areas
    The District reviewed control measures in other areas (i.e., 
Ventura County, San Francisco Bay Area, San Joaquin Valley, Sacramento 
Metropolitan, Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston-Galveston-Brazoria, New 
York, and New Jersey) to evaluate whether control technologies 
available and cost-effective within other areas would be available and 
cost-effective for use in the South Coast and the Coachella Valley.
Step 5. Control Measures beyond RACM in 2012 AQMP
    The District updated the RACM analysis for four control measures 
that were determined to be beyond RACM in the analysis for the prior 
2012 AQMP, including reconsideration of emissions reductions of VOC 
from greenwaste composting.
Step 6. EPA Menu of Control Measures
    The Menu of Control Measures (MCM) \52\ compiled by the EPA's 
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards was created to provide 
information useful in the development of emissions reduction strategies 
and to identify and evaluate potential control measures. District staff 
reviewed the MCM for point and nonpoint sources of NOX and 
VOC.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \52\ EPA, MCM, http://www3.epa.gov/ttn/naaqs/pdfs/MenuOfControlMeasures.pdf.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The District provides a comprehensive evaluation of its RACM 
control strategy in Appendix VI-A of the 2016 AQMP. The evaluation 
includes the following: Source descriptions; base year and projected 
baseline year emissions for the source category affected by the rule; 
discussion of the current requirements of the rule; and discussion of 
potential additional control measures, including, in many cases, a 
discussion of the technological and economic feasibility of the 
additional control measures. This includes comparison of each District 
rule to analogous control measures adopted by other agencies.
    Based on its RACM analysis for stationary and area sources under 
its jurisdiction, the District identified the following three 
additional RACM with quantifiable VOC and NOX emission 
reductions: CMB-02--Emission Reductions from Replacement with Zero or 
Near-Zero NOX Appliances in Commercial and Residential 
Applications; CMB-03--Emission Reductions from Non-Refinery Flares; and 
BCM-10--Emission Reductions from Greenwaste Composting. These three 
RACM are included in the District's stationary source measures in Table 
4-2 of the 2016 AQMP that the District Board adopted through Resolution 
17-2. For the few remaining measures that the District rejected from 
its RACM analysis, the District determined that these measures would 
not collectively advance the attainment date or contribute to RFP due 
to the uncertain or non-quantifiable emissions reductions they would 
potentially generate.\53\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \53\ 2016 AQMP, Appendix VI-A, page VI-A-40, and Attachments VI-
A-1c, VI-A-1d, and VI-A-2.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Based on its evaluation of all available measures, the District 
concluded that its existing rules are generally as stringent as, or 
more stringent than, the analogous rules in other districts. Further, 
the District concluded that, based on its comprehensive review and 
evaluation of potential candidate measures and the adoption of 
commitments to implement the three measures determined to be 
technologically and economically feasible, the District meets the RACM 
requirement for the 2008 ozone NAAQS for all sources under the 
District's jurisdiction.
    Lastly, the District concluded that its controls will achieve 
attainment for the ozone standards as expeditiously as possible, and 
that the available control measures not included as plan commitments 
would not collectively advance attainment.\54\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \54\ 2016 AQMP, Appendix VI, page VI-A-40.
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b. Local Jurisdictions' RACM Analysis and Transportation Control 
Measures
    Appendix IV-C of the 2016 AQMP, contains the transportation control 
measure (TCM) RACM component for the 2016 South Coast Ozone SIP. The 
TCMs in Appendix IV-C are applicable in the upwind South Coast Air 
Basin. Because of the significant influence of pollutant transport from 
the South Coast Air Basin on ozone conditions in the Coachella Valley, 
neither the District nor CARB rely on implementation of any TCMs in the 
Coachella Valley to demonstrate implementation of RACM in the 2016 
Coachella Valley Ozone SIP. SCAG conducted the TCM RACM analysis on 
behalf of the local jurisdictions in its region, based on its 2016 RTP/
SCS and 2015 Federal Transportation Improvement Program (FTIP), as 
amended.\55\ The 2016 RTP/SCS and FTIP were developed in consultation 
with federal, state and local transportation and air quality planning 
agencies and other stakeholders. The four county transportation 
commissions (CTCs),\56\ including the Riverside CTC overseeing the 
Coachella Valley, were involved in the development of the regional 
transportation measures in Appendix IV-C.\57\
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    \55\ The 2016 RTP/SCS was adopted by SCAG's Regional Council on 
April 7, 2016. The 2015 FTIP was adopted by SCAG's Executive/
Administration Committee on September 11, 2014, and approved by the 
Federal Highway Administration on December 14, 2014.
    \56\ Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority, 
Riverside County Transportation Commission, Orange County 
Transportation Authority, and the San Bernardino County 
Transportation Authority (formerly known as the San Bernardino 
Associated Governments).
    \57\ 2016 AQMP, Appendix IV-C, page IV-C-1.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    As described in Appendix IV-C of the 2016 AQMP, for the TCM RACM 
analysis, SCAG compared the list of measures implemented within the 
South Coast with those implemented in other ozone and PM2.5 
nonattainment areas.\58\ SCAG then organized measures, including 
candidate measures and those measures currently implemented in the 
region, according to the sixteen categories specified in section 
108(f)(1)(A) of the CAA. SCAG found a small number of candidate 
measures that were not currently implemented in the region and not 
included in the prior 2012 AQMP TCM RACM analysis. Attachment A 
(``Committed Transportation Control Measures (TCMs)'') to Appendix IV-C 
of the 2016 AQMP lists the TCM projects that are specifically 
identified and committed to in the 2016 AQMP. The complete listing of 
all candidate measures evaluated for the RACM determination is included 
in Attachment B (``2016 South Coast AQMP Reasonably Available Control 
Measures (RACM) Analysis--TCMs'') to Appendix IV-C of the 2016 AQMP. 
Based on its comprehensive review of TCM projects in other 
nonattainment

[[Page 2958]]

areas or otherwise identified, SCAG determined that the TCMs being 
implemented in the South Coast are inclusive of all RACM.\59\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \58\ The specific nonattainment area SIPs that were reviewed for 
candidate TCMs for ozone are listed in Table 4 of Appendix IV-C of 
the 2016 AQMP.
    \59\ Appendix IV-C, page IV-C-30.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

c. CARB's RACM Analysis
    CARB's RACM analysis is contained in Attachment VI-A-3 
(``California Mobile Source Control Program Best Available Control 
Measures/Reasonably Available Control Measures Assessment'') (``BACM/
RACM assessment'') to Appendix VI-A of the 2016 AQMP.
    CARB's BACM/RACM assessment provides a general description of 
CARB's existing mobile source programs. A more detailed description of 
CARB's mobile source control program, including a comprehensive table 
listing on- and off-road mobile source regulatory actions taken by CARB 
since 1985, is contained in Attachment VI-C-1 to Appendix VI-C of the 
2016 AQMP. The BACM/RACM assessment and 2016 State Strategy 
collectively contain CARB's evaluation of mobile source and other 
statewide control measures that reduce emissions of NOX and 
VOC in California, including the Coachella Valley. The 2016 State 
Strategy also includes a commitment to take action on new measures and 
to achieve aggregate emissions reductions in the South Coast.\60\ 
Because the Coachella Valley's attainment of the 2008 ozone NAAQS is 
dependent on progress made in the upwind South Coast, this commitment 
will contribute to attainment in the Coachella Valley. On October 1, 
2019, the EPA approved the 2016 South Coast Ozone SIP, including CARB's 
commitment.\61\ For additional details on CARB's commitment, see 
section III.D.2.b.ii of our notice for the proposed action.\62\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \60\ 2016 State Strategy, Chapter 3 (``Proposed SIP 
Commitment''),
    \61\ 84 FR 52005, 52015.
    \62\ 84 FR 28132, 28147.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Source categories for which CARB has primary responsibility for 
reducing emissions in California include most new and existing on- and 
off-road engines and vehicles, motor vehicle fuels, and consumer 
products. CARB developed its 2016 State Strategy through a multi-step 
measure development process, including extensive public consultation, 
to develop and evaluate potential strategies for mobile source 
categories under CARB's regulatory authority that could contribute to 
expeditious attainment of the standard.\63\ Through the process of 
developing the 2016 State Strategy, CARB identified certain defined 
measures as available to achieve additional VOC and NOX 
emissions reductions from sources under CARB jurisdiction, including 
tighter requirements for new light- and medium-duty vehicles (referred 
to as the ``Advanced Clean Cars 2'' measure), a low-NOX 
engine standard for vehicles with new heavy-duty engines, tighter 
emissions standards for small off-road engines, and more stringent 
requirements for consumer products, among others.\64\ In adopting the 
2016 State Strategy, CARB commits to bringing the defined measures to 
the CARB Board for action according to the specific schedule included 
as part of the strategy.\65\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \63\ Appendix VI-A, Attachment VI-A-3, page VI-A-102.
    \64\ 2016 State Strategy, Chapter 4 (``State SIP Measures'').
    \65\ CARB Resolution 17-7 (dated March 23, 2017), 7.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Given the need for substantial emissions reductions from mobile and 
area sources to meet the NAAQS in California nonattainment areas, CARB 
established stringent control measures for on-road and off-road mobile 
sources and the fuels that power them. California has unique authority 
under CAA section 209 (subject to a waiver by the EPA) to adopt and 
implement new emission standards for many categories of on-road 
vehicles and engines, and new and in-use off-road vehicles and engines.
    CARB's mobile source program extends beyond regulations that are 
subject to the waiver or authorization process set forth in CAA section 
209 to include standards and other requirements to control emissions 
from in-use heavy-duty trucks and buses, gasoline and diesel fuel 
specifications, and many other types of mobile sources. Generally, 
these regulations have been submitted and approved as revisions to the 
California SIP.\66\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \66\ See, e.g., the EPA's approval of standards and other 
requirements to control emissions from in-use heavy-duty diesel-
powered trucks, at 77 FR 20308 (April 4, 2012), revisions to the 
California on-road reformulated gasoline and diesel fuel regulations 
at 75 FR 26653 (May 12, 2010), and revisions to the California motor 
vehicle inspection and maintenance program at 75 FR 38023 (July 1, 
2010).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    In the BACM/RACM assessment, CARB concludes that, in light of the 
extensive public process culminating in the 2016 State Strategy, with 
the current mobile source program and proposed measures included in the 
2016 State Strategy, there are no additional RACM that would advance 
attainment of the 2008 ozone NAAQS in the South Coast. As a result, 
CARB concludes that California's mobile source programs fully meet the 
RACM requirement.\67\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \67\ 2016 AQMP, Appendix VI, page VI-A-106.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Appendix IV-B of the 2016 AQMP describes CARB's current consumer 
products program and commitments in the 2016 State Strategy to achieve 
additional VOC reductions from consumer products.\68\ As described in 
this section, CARB's current consumer products program limits VOC 
emissions from 129 consumer product categories, including product 
categories such as antiperspirants and deodorants and aerosol 
coatings.\69\ The EPA has approved many of these measures into the 
California SIP as VOC emissions controls for a wide array of consumer 
products.\70\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \68\ 2016 AQMP, Appendix IV-B, page IV-B-93. CARB's consumer 
product measures are found in the California Code of Regulations, 
Title 17 (``Public Health''), Division 3 (``Air Resources''), 
Chapter 1 (``Air Resources Board''), Subchapter 8.5 (``Consumer 
Products'').
    \69\ 2016 AQMP, Appendix IV-B, page IV-B-93.
    \70\ The compilation of such measures that have been approved 
into the California SIP, including Federal Register citations, is 
available at: https://www.epa.gov/sips-ca/epa-approved-regulations-california-sip. EPA's most recent approval of amendments to 
California's consumer products regulations was in 2014. 79 FR 62346 
(October 17, 2014).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

3. The EPA's Review of the State's Submission
    As described above, the District already implements many rules to 
reduce VOC and NOX emissions from stationary and area 
sources in the Coachella Valley. For the 2016 AQMP, the District 
evaluated a range of potentially available measures and committed to 
adopt certain additional measures (i.e., CMB-02, CMB-03, and BCM-10) 
found to be reasonably available for implementation in the South Coast 
and Coachella Valley nonattainment areas. We find that the process 
followed by the District in the 2016 AQMP to identify additional RACM 
is generally consistent with the EPA's recommendations in the General 
Preamble, that the District's evaluation of potential measures is 
appropriate, and that the District has provided reasoned justifications 
for rejection of measures deemed not reasonably available.
    With respect to mobile sources, CARB's current program addresses 
the full range of mobile sources in the South Coast and Coachella 
Valley through regulatory programs for both new and in-use vehicles. 
Moreover, we find that the process conducted by CARB to prepare the 
2016 State Strategy was reasonably designed to identify additional 
available measures within CARB's jurisdiction, and that CARB has

[[Page 2959]]

adopted those measures that are reasonably available (e.g., the low-
NOX heavy-duty engine standard, among others). With respect 
to TCMs, we find that SCAG's process for identifying additional TCM 
RACM and conclusion that the TCMs being implemented in the South Coast 
(i.e., the TCMs listed in Attachment A to Appendix IV-C of the 2016 
AQMP) are inclusive of all TCM RACM to be reasonably justified and 
supported. For the 2016 Coachella Valley Ozone SIP, given the 
significant influence of pollutant transport from the South Coast Air 
Basin and the minimal and diminishing emissions benefits generally 
associated with TCMs, no TCM or combination of TCMs implemented in the 
Coachella Valley would advance the attainment date in the Coachella 
Valley. Therefore, no TCMs are reasonably available for implementation 
in the Coachella Valley for the purposes of meeting the RACM 
requirement.
    Additionally, we find that CARB's consumer products program 
comprehensively addresses emissions from consumer products in the South 
Coast and Coachella Valley. CARB measures are more stringent than the 
EPA's consumer products regulation promulgated in 1998,\71\ and 
generally exceed the controls in place throughout other areas of the 
country. The additional commitments included in the 2016 State Strategy 
will further strengthen this program by achieving additional VOC 
reductions.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \71\ 63 FR 48819 (September 11, 1998).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Based on our review of these RACM analyses, the District's and 
CARB's adopted rules, and the District's commitment to adopt three 
additional reasonably available measures (i.e., CMB-02, CMB-03, and 
BCM-10), we propose to find that there are currently no additional RACM 
(including RACT) that would advance attainment of the 2008 ozone NAAQS 
in the Coachella Valley, and that the 2016 Coachella Valley Ozone SIP 
provides for the implementation of all RACM as required by CAA section 
172(c)(1) and 40 CFR 51.1112(c). For additional background on the EPA's 
evaluation of the District's RACM analysis, see our June 17, 2019 
notice of proposed rulemaking on the 2016 South Coast Ozone SIP.\72\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \72\ 84 FR 28132, 28140. See also the EPA's November 1, 2019 
approval of the 2016 South Coast Ozone SIP at 84 FR 52005.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

D. Attainment Demonstration

1. Statutory and Regulatory Requirements
    An attainment demonstration consists of: (1) Technical analyses, 
such as base year and future year modeling, to locate and identify 
sources of emissions that are contributing to violations of the ozone 
NAAQS within the nonattainment area (i.e., analyses related to the 
emissions inventory for the nonattainment area and the emissions 
reductions necessary to attain the standards); (2) a list of adopted 
measures (including RACT controls) with schedules for implementation 
and other means and techniques necessary and appropriate for 
demonstrating RFP and attainment as expeditiously as practicable but no 
later than the outside attainment date for the area's classification; 
(3) a RACM analysis; and (4) contingency measures required under 
sections 172(c)(9) and 182(c)(9) of the CAA that can be implemented 
without further action by the state or the EPA to cover emissions 
shortfalls in RFP and failures to attain.\73\ This subsection of 
today's proposed rule addresses the first two components of the 
attainment demonstration--the technical analyses and a list of adopted 
measures. Section III.C (Reasonably Available Control Measures 
Demonstration and Control Strategy) of this document addresses the RACM 
component, and section III.G (Contingency Measures) addresses the 
contingency measures component of the attainment demonstration in the 
2016 Coachella Valley Ozone SIP.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \73\ 78 FR 34178, 34184 (June 6, 2013) (proposed rule for 
implementing the 2008 ozone NAAQS).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    With respect to the technical analyses, section 182(c)(2)(A) of the 
CAA requires that a plan for an ozone nonattainment area classified 
Serious or above include a ``demonstration that the plan . . . will 
provide for attainment of the ozone [NAAQS] by the applicable 
attainment date. This attainment demonstration must be based on 
photochemical grid modeling or any other analytical method determined . 
. . to be at least as effective.'' The attainment demonstration 
predicts future ambient concentrations for comparison to the NAAQS, 
making use of available information on measured concentrations, 
meteorology, and current and projected emissions inventories of ozone 
precursors, including the effect of control measures in the plan.
    Areas classified Severe for the 2008 ozone NAAQS must demonstrate 
attainment as expeditiously as practicable, but no later than 15 years 
after the effective date of designation to nonattainment. The Coachella 
Valley was designated nonattainment for the 2008 ozone NAAQS effective 
July 20, 2012,\74\ and accordingly the area must demonstrate attainment 
of the standards by July 20, 2027.\75\ An attainment demonstration must 
show attainment of the standards by the calendar year prior to the 
attainment date, so in practice, Severe nonattainment areas must 
demonstrate attainment in 2026.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \74\ 77 FR 30087 (May 21, 2012).
    \75\ 80 FR 12264.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The EPA's recommended procedures for modeling ozone as part of an 
attainment demonstration are contained in ``Modeling Guidance for 
Demonstrating Air Quality Goals for Ozone, PM2.5, and 
Regional Haze'' (``Modeling Guidance'').\76\ The Modeling Guidance 
includes recommendations for a modeling protocol, model input 
preparation, model performance evaluation, use of model output for the 
numerical NAAQS attainment test, and modeling documentation. Air 
quality modeling is performed using meteorology and emissions from a 
base year, and the predicted concentrations from this base case 
modeling are compared to air quality monitoring data from that year to 
evaluate model performance.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \76\ Modeling Guidance, EPA 454/R-18-009, November 2018. See 
https://www3.epa.gov/ttn/scram/guidance/guide/O3-PM-RH-Modeling_Guidance-2018.pdf. The Modeling Guidance updates, but is 
largely consistent with, the earlier ``Guidance on the Use of Models 
and Other Analyses for Demonstrating Attainment of Air Quality Goals 
for the 8-Hour Ozone and PM2.5 NAAQS and Regional Haze,'' 
EPA-454/B-07-002, April 2007. Additional EPA modeling guidance can 
be found in 40 CFR 51 Appendix W, ``Guideline on Air Quality 
Models,'' 82 FR 5182 (January 17, 2017); available at https://www.epa.gov/scram/clean-air-act-permit-modeling-guidance.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Once the model performance is determined to be acceptable, future 
year emissions are simulated with the model. The relative (or percent) 
change in modeled concentration due to future emissions reductions 
provides a relative response factor (RRF). Each monitoring site's RRF 
is applied to its monitored base year design value to provide the 
future design value for comparison to the NAAQS. The Modeling Guidance 
also recommends supplemental air quality analyses, which may be used as 
part of a weight of evidence (WOE) analysis. A WOE analysis 
corroborates the attainment demonstration by considering evidence other 
than the main air quality modeling attainment test, such as trends and 
additional monitoring and modeling analyses.
    The Modeling Guidance also does not require a particular year to be 
used as the base year for 8-hour ozone plans.\77\ The Modeling Guidance 
states that the most recent year of the National Emissions Inventory 
may be appropriate

[[Page 2960]]

for use as the base year for modeling, but that other years may be more 
appropriate when considering meteorology, transport patterns, 
exceptional events, or other factors that may vary from year to 
year.\78\ Therefore, the base year used for the attainment 
demonstration need not be the same year used to meet the requirements 
for emissions inventories and RFP.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \77\ Modeling Guidance at section 2.7.1, 35.
    \78\ Id.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    With respect to the list of adopted measures, CAA section 172(c)(6) 
requires that nonattainment area plans include enforceable emissions 
limitations, and such other control measures, means or techniques 
(including economic incentives such as fees, marketable permits, and 
auctions of emission rights), as well as schedules and timetables for 
compliance, as may be necessary or appropriate to provide for timely 
attainment of the NAAQS.\79\ Under the 2008 Ozone SRR, all control 
measures needed for attainment must be implemented no later than the 
beginning of the attainment year ozone season.\80\ The attainment year 
ozone season is defined as the ozone season immediately preceding a 
nonattainment area's maximum attainment date.\81\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \79\ See also CAA section 110(a)(2)(A).
    \80\ 40 CFR 51.1108(d).
    \81\ 40 CFR 51.1100(h).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

2. Summary of the State's Submission
a. Photochemical Modeling
    The 2016 Coachella Valley Ozone SIP includes photochemical modeling 
for the 2008 ozone NAAQS. The SCAQMD performed the air quality modeling 
for the 2016 Coachella Valley Ozone SIP. The modeling relies on a 2012 
base year and demonstrates attainment of the 2008 ozone NAAQS in 2026.
    As a general matter, the modeling for the 2016 Coachella Valley 
Ozone SIP represents an update to the photochemical modeling performed 
for the EPA-approved 2012 AQMP to account for more recent satellite-
based input data, improved chemical gaseous and particulate mechanisms, 
improved computational resources and post-processing utilities, 
enhanced spatial and temporal allocations of the emissions inventory, 
and a revised attainment demonstration methodology. The modeling and 
modeled attainment demonstration are described in Chapter 5 (``Future 
Air Quality'') of the 2016 AQMP. Chapter 7 (``Current and Future Air 
Quality: Desert Nonattainment Areas SIP'') provides background 
information on the Coachella Valley, as well as the ozone attainment 
demonstration. Appendix V (``Modeling and Attainment Demonstration'') 
of the 2016 AQMP provides a description of model input preparation 
procedures, various model configuration options, and model performance 
statistics. The modeling protocol is in Chapter 2 (``Modeling 
Protocol'') of Appendix V of the 2016 AQMP and contains all the 
elements recommended in the Modeling Guidance. Those include: Selection 
of model, time period to model, modeling domain, and model boundary 
conditions and initialization procedures; a discussion of emissions 
inventory development and other model input preparation procedures; 
model performance evaluation procedures; selection of days; and other 
details for calculating RRFs. Appendix V of the 2016 AQMP provides the 
coordinates of the modeling domain and thoroughly describes the 
development of the modeling emissions inventory, including its chemical 
speciation, its spatial and temporal allocation, its temperature 
dependence, and quality assurance procedures. Appendix C of CARB's 
Staff Report for the 2016 AQMP, entitled ``Coachella Valley Weight of 
Evidence,'' provides additional information about ozone formation and 
trends in the Coachella Valley.
    The modeling analysis used version 5.0.2 of the Community 
Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) photochemical model, developed by the 
EPA. To prepare meteorological input for CMAQ, the Weather and Research 
Forecasting model version 3.6 (WRF) from the National Center for 
Atmospheric Research was used. CMAQ and WRF are both recognized in the 
Modeling Guidance as technically sound, state-of-the-art models. The 
areal extent and the horizontal and vertical resolution used in these 
models were adequate for modeling Coachella Valley ozone.
    The WRF meteorological model results and performance statistics are 
described in Chapter 3 (``Meteorological Modeling and Sensitivity 
Analyses'') of Appendix V. The District evaluated the performance of 
the WRF model through a series of simulations and concluded that the 
daily WRF simulation for 2012 provided representative meteorological 
fields that well characterized the observed conditions. The District's 
conclusions were supported by hourly time series graphs of wind speed, 
direction, and temperature for the southern California domain, included 
as Attachment 1 (``WRF Model Performance Time Series'') to Appendix V.
    Ozone model performance statistics are described in the 2016 AQMP 
Appendix V, Chapter 5 (``8-Hour Ozone Attainment Demonstration'') which 
include tables of statistics recommended in the Modeling Guidance for 
ozone for the South Coast sub-regions, including the Coachella 
Valley.\82\ Hourly time series are presented as well as density scatter 
plots, and plots of bias against concentration. Note that, because only 
relative changes are used from the modeling, the underprediction of 
ozone concentrations does not mean that future concentrations will be 
underestimated.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \82\ The other sub-regions are the ``Coastal,'' ``San 
Fernando,'' ``Foothills,'' ``Urban Source,'' and ``Urban Receptor'' 
zones.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    After model performance for the 2012 base case was accepted, the 
model was applied to develop RRFs for the attainment demonstration. 
This entailed running the model with the same meteorological inputs as 
before, but with adjusted emissions inventories to reflect the expected 
changes between 2012 and the 2026 attainment year. The base year or 
``reference year'' modeling inventory was the same as the inventory for 
the modeling base case. The 2026 inventory projects the base year into 
the future by including the effect of economic growth and emissions 
control measures. The set of 153 days from May 1 through September 30, 
2012, was simulated and analyzed to determine 8-hour average maximum 
ozone concentrations for the 2012 and 2026 emissions inventories. To 
develop the RRFs for the 8-hour ozone NAAQS, only the top 10 days were 
used, consistent with the Modeling Guidance.\83\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \83\ See Modeling Guidance at section 4.2.1.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The Modeling Guidance addresses attainment demonstrations with 
ozone NAAQS based on 8-hour averages, and for the 2008 ozone NAAQS, the 
2016 AQMP carried out the attainment test procedure consistent with the 
Modeling Guidance. The RRFs were calculated as the ratio of future to 
base year concentrations. The resulting RRFs were then applied to 2012 
weighted base year design values \84\ for each monitor to arrive at 
2026 future year design values. Ozone is measured continuously at two 
locations in the Coachella Valley at the Palm Springs and Indio air 
monitoring stations. The modeled 2026 ozone design value at the Palm 
Springs site (the higher of the two sites) is 0.075 ppm; this value 
demonstrates attainment of the 2008 ozone NAAQS.\85\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \84\ The Modeling Guidance recommends that RRFs be applied to 
the average of three three-year design values centered on the base 
year, in this case the design values for 2010-2012, 2011-2013, and 
2012-2014. This amounts to a 5-year weighted average of individual 
year 4th high concentrations, centered on the base year of 2012, and 
so is referred to as a weighted design value.
    \85\ 2016 AQMP, Appendix V, page V-5-28.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

[[Page 2961]]

    The 2016 AQMP modeling includes a WOE demonstration, based on a 
model performance evaluation of the temporal profile of on-road mobile 
source emissions and spatial surrogate profiles of area emissions.\86\ 
The demonstration is based on a sensitivity analysis of four scenarios 
of emissions reductions. Appendix C of CARB's Staff Report for the 2016 
AQMP also provides a WOE discussion that includes information about 
ozone formation in the Coachella Valley. The WOE demonstration in 
Appendix C includes ambient ozone data and trends, precursor emissions 
trends and reductions, and population exposure trends to complement the 
regional photochemical modeling analyses.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \86\ 2016 AQMP, Appendix V, pages V-5-36 to V-5-41.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

b. Control Strategy for the 2008 Ozone NAAQS
    The control strategy for attainment of the 2008 ozone NAAQS in the 
Coachella Valley relies primarily on timely attainment in 2023 of the 
1997 ozone NAAQS in the South Coast. Continued air quality improvement 
in the Coachella Valley is expected during the 2023 through 2026 
timeframe because of ongoing fleet turnover in the Coachella Valley and 
South Coast and from existing measures and additional reductions from 
new measures implemented before 2027 for attainment of the 2008 ozone 
NAAQS by 2031 in the South Coast.
    The control strategy in the 2016 South Coast Ozone SIP for 
attainment of the 1997 ozone NAAQS by 2023 in the South Coast relies on 
emissions reductions from already-adopted measures, commitments by the 
District to certain regulatory and nonregulatory initiatives and 
aggregate emissions reductions, and commitments by CARB to certain 
regulatory and nonregulatory initiatives and aggregate emissions 
reductions. Already-adopted measures are expected to achieve 
approximately 66 percent of the NOX reductions needed from 
the 2012 base year for the South Coast to attain the NAAQS in 2023. To 
address the remaining emissions reductions, the 2016 South Coast Ozone 
SIP includes District and CARB aggregate commitments to achieve 
additional emissions reductions by 2023, as shown in tables 2, 3, and 4 
below. Table 2 summarizes the additional reduction commitments in the 
2016 South Coast Ozone SIP. Tables 3 and 4 show the District and CARB 
measures included in the aggregate commitments in Table 2. The 
emissions reductions for individual measures shown in tables 3 and 4 
are not intended to be enforceable; they are estimates prepared by the 
District and CARB to show how they expect at the present time to 
achieve the aggregate emissions reductions for 2023. The EPA's June 17, 
2019 proposed approval of the 2016 South Coast Ozone SIP provides an 
extensive discussion of the control strategy and attainment 
demonstrations for the upwind South Coast to attain the 1997 and 2008 
ozone NAAQS.\87\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \87\ 84 FR 28132.

 Table 2--District and CARB Aggregate Emission Reduction Commitments for
                   2023 in 2016 South Coast Ozone Plan
                   [Summer planning inventory, tpd] a
------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                     Year 2023
                  Plan                   -------------------------------
                                                NOX             VOC
------------------------------------------------------------------------
SCAQMD b................................              23               6
CARB c..................................             113           50-51
                                         -------------------------------
    Total...............................             136           56-57
------------------------------------------------------------------------
\a\ Rounded to whole number.
\b\ 2016 AQMP, tables 4-9, 4-10 and 4-11. Reductions are from the 2012
  base year.
\c\ 2016 State Strategy, Table 4, and CARB Resolution 17-7 (March 23,
  2017). Reductions are from the 2012 base year.

                                             Table 3--District Measures With Reductions by 2023 in 2016 AQMP
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                                                           NOX Emission
                                                                                                                            Reductions     VOC emission
                   No.                                 Title                Adoption          Implementation period            (tpd)        reductions
                                                                                                                                               (tpd)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CMB-01...................................  Transition to Zero and Near-            2018  Ongoing........................             2.5         \a\ 1.2
                                            Zero Emission Technologies
                                            for Stationary Sources.
CMB-02...................................  Emission Reductions from                2018  2020-2031......................             1.1  ..............
                                            Replacement with Zero or
                                            Near-Zero NOX Appliances in
                                            Commercial and Residential
                                            Applications
CMB-03...................................  Emission Reductions from Non-           2018  2020...........................             1.4         \a\ 0.4
                                            Refinery Flares.
CMB-04...................................  Emission Reductions from                2018  2022...........................             0.8  ..............
                                            Restaurant Burners and
                                            Residential Cooking.
BCM-10...................................  Emission Reductions from                2019  2020...........................  ..............             1.5
                                            Greenwaste Composting.
FUG-01...................................  Improved Leak Detection and             2019  2022...........................  ..............             2.0
                                            Repair.
CTS-01...................................  Further Emission Reductions        2017/2021  2020-2031......................  ..............             1.0
                                            from Coatings, Solvents,
                                            Adhesives, and Sealants.
ECC-02...................................  Co-Benefits from Existing               2018  Ongoing........................             0.3         \a\ 0.1
                                            Residential and Commercial
                                            Building Energy Efficiency
                                            Measures
ECC-03...................................  Additional Enhancements in              2018  Ongoing........................             1.2         \a\ 0.2
                                            Reducing Existing
                                            Residential Building Energy
                                            Use.
                                          --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Stationary Sources Totals...........................................................................................             7.3             6.4

[[Page 2962]]

 
MOB-10...................................  Extension of the SOON \b\                 NA  Ongoing........................             1.9  ..............
                                            Provision for Construction/
                                            Industrial Equipment.
MOB-11...................................  Extended Exchange Program...              NA  Ongoing........................             2.9  ..............
MOB-14...................................  Emission Reductions from                  NA  2016-2024......................              11  ..............
                                            Incentive Programs.
                                          --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Mobile Sources Totals...............................................................................................            15.8  ..............
        Stationary and Mobile Sources Totals............................................................................            23.1             6.4
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes:
\a\ Corresponding VOC reductions from other measures.
\b\ Surplus Off-Road Opt-In for NOX Program
 The sum of the emissions values may not equal the total shown due to rounding of the numbers.
Source: 2016 AQMP, tables 4-2, 4-4, 4-9, 4-10 and 4-11.

                                         Table 4--Measures With Reductions by 2023 in CARB's 2016 State Strategy
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                           Implementation                  NOX Emission
                                                                           ----------------------------------------------   Reductions     VOC emission
                  Title                                Adoption                                                                (tpd)        reductions
                                                                              Time frame               Agency                                  (tpd)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
On-Road Light-Duty:
    Further Deployment of Cleaner          ongoing........................            2016  CARB, SCAQMD, EPA...........               7              16
     Technologies \a\.
On-Road Heavy-Duty:
    Lower In-Use Emission Performance      2017-2020......................          2018 +  CARB........................             NYQ            <0.1
     Level.
    Innovative Clean Transit.............  2017...........................            2018  CARB........................            <0.1            <0.1
    Last Mile Delivery...................  2018...........................            2020  CARB........................            <0.1            <0.1
    Incentive Funding to Achieve Further   ongoing........................            2016  CARB, SCAQMD................               3             0.4
     Emission Reductions from On-Road
     Heavy Duty Vehicles \b\.
    Further Deployment of Cleaner          ongoing........................            2016  CARB, SCAQMD, EPA...........              34               4
     Technologies \a\.
Aircraft:
    Further Deployment of Cleaner          ongoing........................            2016  CARB, SCAQMD, EPA...........               9             NYQ
     Technologies \a\.
Locomotives:
    More Stringent National Locomotive     2017...........................            2023  EPA.........................            <0.1            <0.1
     Emission Standards.
    Further Deployment of Cleaner          ongoing........................            2016  CARB, SCAQMD, EPA...........               7             0.3
     Technologies \a\.
Ocean-Going Vessels:
    At-Berth Regulation Amendments.......  2017-2018......................            2023  CARB........................             0.3            <0.1
    Further Deployment of Cleaner          ongoing........................            2016  CARB, SCAQMD, EPA...........              30             NYQ
     Technologies \a\.
Off-Road Equipment:
    Zero-Emission Airport Ground Support   2018...........................            2023  CARB........................            <0.1            <0.1
     Equipment.
    Small Off-Road Engines...............  2018-2020......................            2022  CARB........................             0.7               7
    Low-Emission Diesel Requirement......  by 2020........................            2023  CARB........................             0.3             NYQ
    Further Deployment of Cleaner          ongoing........................            2016  CARB, SCAQMD, EPA...........              21              21
     Technologies \a\.
Consumer Products:
    Consumer Products Program............  2019-2021......................          2020 +  CARB........................               0             1-2
rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr
        Total Emission Reductions........  ...............................  ..............  ............................             113           50-51
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes:
\a\ CARB requested the EPA approve the ``Further Deployment of Cleaner Technologies'' measures under the provisions of section 182(e)(5) of the CAA. In
  today's action we also refer to these as new technology measures.
\b\ On March 22, 2018, CARB adopted the ``South Coast On-Road Heavy-Duty Vehicle Incentive Measure.'' On April 25, 2019, the EPA proposed to approve the
  measure as achieving 1 tpd of NOX reductions in 2023. See 84 FR 17365.
NYQ means not yet quantified.
The sum of the emissions values may not equal the total shown due to rounding of the numbers.
Source: 2016 State Strategy, Table 4; Attachment A to CARB Resolution 17-7 (March 23, 2017).

c. Attainment Demonstration
    Chapter 7 of the 2016 AQMP includes a section entitled ``Ozone 
Attainment Demonstration and Projections,'' which describes the 
Coachella Valley's progress toward attaining the 1997, 2008, and 2015 
ozone standards.\88\ For the 2008 ozone NAAQS, the 2016 AQMP summarizes 
the District's modeling for the area, and concludes that the measures 
included in the control strategy (including CARB

[[Page 2963]]

commitments) will result in the area attaining the standards no later 
than 2026. The WOE discussion in Appendix C of CARB's Staff Report for 
the 2016 AQMP provides additional discussion of air quality trends and 
projections in the Coachella Valley and determines that the area is on 
track to attain the 2008 ozone NAAQS by 2026.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \88\ 2016 AQMP, 7-35 to 7-40.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

3. The EPA's Review of the State's Submission
a. Photochemical Modeling
    As discussed above in Section III.A of this notice, we are 
proposing to approve the base year emissions inventory and to find that 
the future year emissions projections in the 2016 AQMP reflect 
appropriate calculation methods and that the latest planning 
assumptions are properly supported by SIP-approved stationary and 
mobile source measures. In the discussion below, we address our 
findings for the modeling submitted with the 2016 Coachella Valley 
Ozone SIP. Because of the importance of ozone transport from the South 
Coast to attainment in the Coachella Valley, and the close interactions 
of the modeling for each area, we have considered the modeling for both 
areas. Similar and additional discussion for the South Coast can be 
found in our June 17, 2019 proposed action on the 2016 South Coast 
Ozone SIP.\89\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \89\ 84 FR 28132.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Based on our review of Appendix V of the 2016 AQMP, the EPA finds 
that the photochemical modeling is adequate for purposes of supporting 
the attainment demonstration.\90\ First, we note the extensive 
discussion of modeling procedures, tests, and performance analyses 
called for in the Modeling Protocol (i.e., Chapter 2 of Appendix V of 
the 2016 AQMP) and the good model performance. Second, we find the WRF 
meteorological model results and performance statistics, including 
hourly time series graphs of wind speed, direction, and temperature for 
both the South Coast and the Coachella Valley, to be satisfactory and 
consistent with our Modeling Guidance.\91\ Performance was evaluated 
for each month in each zone for the entire year of 2012.\92\ Diurnal 
variation of temperature, humidity and surface wind are well 
represented by WRF. Geographically, winds are predicted most accurately 
at the inland urban receptor sites. Accurate wind predictions in this 
region of elevated ozone concentrations is one of the most critical 
factors to simulate chemical transport to the Coachella Valley. 
Overall, the daily WRF simulation for 2012 provided representative 
meteorological fields that characterized the observed conditions well.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \90\ The EPA's review of the modeling and attainment 
demonstration is discussed in greater detail in section VI of the 
TSD (``Modeling and Attainment Demonstration'').
    \91\ Modeling Guidance, 30.
    \92\ Temperature, water vapor mixing ratio, and wind speed were 
evaluated in terms of normalized gross bias and normalized gross 
error.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The model performance statistics for ozone are described in Chapter 
5 of Appendix V and are based on the statistical evaluation recommended 
in the Modeling Guidance. Model performance was provided for 8-hour 
daily maximum ozone for Coachella Valley as well as other areas in the 
Southern California modeling domain.\93\ A geographical bias is shown 
in the time series, with over-prediction in coastal areas, and under-
prediction in the inland areas, including Coachella Valley.\94\ The 
2016 AQMP also presents ozone frequency distributions, scatter plots, 
and plots of bias against concentration. The scatter and density 
scatter plots show low bias at high concentrations, and higher bias at 
low concentrations. The low bias at high concentrations is important 
because it reflects the model's capability to predict high 
concentrations, in particular, the top 10 days that form the basis for 
the RRF calculation. The supplemental hourly time series show generally 
good performance, though many individual daily ozone peaks are 
underpredicted. As noted above, however, the underprediction of 
absolute ozone concentrations does not mean that future concentrations 
will be underestimated. In addition, the WOE analysis presented in 
Appendix C of CARB's Staff Report for the 2016 Coachella Valley Ozone 
SIP provides additional information with respect to the sensitivity to 
emissions changes and further supports the model performance. We are 
proposing to find the air quality modeling adequate to support the 
attainment demonstration for the 2008 ozone NAAQS, based on reasonable 
meteorological and ozone modeling performance, and supported by the 
weight of evidence analyses. For additional information, please see 
section VI of the TSD for this action.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \93\ 2016 AQMP Appendix V, Table V-5-8. These zones are 
represented by the following ozone monitoring sites: ``Coastal'' 
(Costa Mesa, LAX, Long Beach, Mission Viejo, West Los Angeles); 
``Urban Source'' (Anaheim, Central Los Angeles, Compton, La Habra, 
Pico Rivera, Pomona); ``San Fernando'' (Reseda, Santa Clarita, 
Burbank); ``Foothills'' (Azusa, Glendora, Pasadena); ``Urban 
Receptor'' (Crestline, Fontana, Lake Elsinore, Mira Loma, Redlands, 
Rubidoux, San Bernardino, Upland); and ``Coachella Valley'' (Palm 
Springs and Indio).
    \94\ The model performance varied by zone, with over-prediction 
in the ``Coastal'' zone and under-prediction in the ``San 
Fernando,'' and ``Foothills'' zones. The model ozone predictions in 
the ``Urban Receptor'' zone agree reasonably well with the 
measurements.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

b. Control Strategy
    The Coachella Valley control strategy relies primarily on 
previously adopted and future emissions reductions detailed in the 2016 
South Coast Ozone SIP. As described in Section III.D.2.b above, a 
significant portion of the emissions reductions needed to attain the 
1997 ozone NAAQS in the South Coast by 2023 will be obtained through 
previously adopted measures in the SIP, and the balance of the 
reductions needed for attainment will result from enforceable 
commitments to take certain specific actions within prescribed periods 
and to achieve aggregate tonnage reductions of VOC or NOX by 
specific years. The aggregate commitments provide the remaining 
additional upwind reductions necessary for the Coachella Valley to 
attain the 2008 ozone NAAQS by 2026. In our October 1, 2019 approval of 
the 2016 South Coast Ozone SIP, the EPA approved the control strategy, 
including CARB's and the District's aggregate commitments, for the 
South Coast to attain the 1997 ozone NAAQS.\95\ For the reasons 
described in that action, and based on the District's demonstration 
specific to the Coachella Valley described above, we propose to find 
the District's control strategy acceptable for purposes of attaining 
the 2008 ozone NAAQS in the Coachella Valley. For additional 
information, please see the TSD for this action.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \95\ See 84 FR 52005.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

c. Attainment Demonstration
    Based on our proposed determinations that the photochemical 
modeling and control strategy are acceptable, we propose to approve the 
attainment demonstration for the 2008 ozone NAAQS in the 2016 Coachella 
Valley Ozone SIP as meeting the requirements of CAA section 
182(c)(2)(A) and 40 CFR 51.1108.

E. Rate of Progress Plan and Reasonable Further Progress Demonstration

1. Statutory and Regulatory Requirements
    Requirements for RFP for ozone nonattainment areas are specified in 
CAA sections 172(c)(2), 182(b)(1), and 182(c)(2)(B). Under CAA section 
171(1), RFP is defined as meaning such annual incremental reductions in 
emissions of the relevant air pollutant as are required under part D 
(``Plan Requirements for Nonattainment Areas'') of the CAA or as may 
reasonably be required by the EPA

[[Page 2964]]

for the purpose of ensuring attainment of the applicable NAAQS by the 
applicable date. CAA section 182(b)(1) specifically requires that ozone 
nonattainment areas classified as Moderate or above demonstrate a 15 
percent reduction in VOC between the years of 1990 and 1996. The EPA 
has typically referred to section 182(b)(1) as the rate of progress 
(ROP) requirement. For ozone nonattainment areas classified as Serious 
or higher, section 182(c)(2)(B) requires VOC reductions of at least 3 
percent of baseline emissions per year, averaged over each consecutive 
3-year period, beginning 6 years after the baseline year until the 
attainment date. Under CAA section 182(c)(2)(C), a state may substitute 
NOX emissions reductions for VOC emissions reductions. 
Additionally, CAA section 182(c)(2)(B)(ii) allows an amount less than 3 
percent of such baseline emissions each year if a state demonstrates to 
the EPA that its plan includes all measures that can feasibly be 
implemented in the area in light of technological achievability.
    In the 2008 Ozone SRR, the EPA provides that areas classified 
Moderate or higher will have met the ROP requirements of CAA section 
182(b)(1) if the area has a fully approved 15 percent ROP plan for the 
1-hour or 1997 ozone NAAQS.\96\ For such areas, the EPA interprets the 
RFP requirements of CAA section 172(c)(2) to require areas classified 
as Moderate to provide a 15 percent emissions reduction of ozone 
precursors within 6 years of the baseline year. Areas classified as 
Serious or higher must meet the RFP requirements of CAA section 
182(c)(2)(B) by providing an 18 percent reduction of ozone precursors 
in the first 6-year period, and an average ozone precursor emissions 
reduction of 3 percent per year for all remaining 3-year periods 
thereafter.\97\ The 2008 Ozone SRR allows substitution of 
NOX reductions for VOC reductions to meet the CAA section 
172(c)(2) and 182(c)(2)(B) RFP requirements.\98\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \96\ 70 FR 12264, 12271 (March 6, 2015).
    \97\ Id.
    \98\ Id.; 40 CFR 51.1110(a)(2)(i)(C) and 40 CFR 
51.1110(a)(2)(ii)(B).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Except as specifically provided in CAA section 182(b)(1)(C), 
emissions reductions from all SIP-approved, federally promulgated, or 
otherwise SIP-creditable measures that occur after the baseline year 
are creditable for purposes of demonstrating that the RFP targets are 
met. Because the EPA has determined that the passage of time has caused 
the effect of certain exclusions to be de minimis, the RFP 
demonstration is no longer required to calculate and specifically 
exclude reductions from measures related to motor vehicle exhaust or 
evaporative emissions promulgated by January 1, 1990; regulations 
concerning Reid vapor pressure promulgated by November 15, 1990; 
measures to correct previous RACT requirements; and measures required 
to correct previous inspection and maintenance (I/M) programs.\99\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \99\ 40 CFR 51.1110(a)(7).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The 2008 Ozone SRR requires the RFP baseline year to be the most 
recent calendar year for which a complete triennial inventory was 
required to be submitted to the EPA. For the purposes of developing RFP 
demonstrations for the 2008 ozone NAAQS, the applicable triennial 
inventory year is 2011. As discussed previously, the 2008 Ozone SRR 
provided states with the opportunity to use an alternative baseline 
year for RFP,\100\ but that provision of the 2008 Ozone SRR was vacated 
by the D.C. Circuit in the South Coast II decision.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \100\ 40 CFR 51.1110(b).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

2. Summary of the State's Submission
    In response to the South Coast II decision, CARB developed the 2018 
SIP Update to revise the RFP demonstrations in previously submitted 
ozone SIPs, including the Coachella Valley RFP demonstration in the 
2016 AQMP. The 2018 SIP Update includes updated emissions estimates for 
the 2011 RFP baseline year, subsequent milestone years, and the 
attainment year.\101\ To develop the 2011 RFP baseline inventory, CARB 
relied on actual emissions reported from industrial point sources for 
year 2011 and backcast emissions from smaller stationary sources and 
area sources from 2012 to 2011 using the same growth and control 
factors as was used for the 2016 AQMP. To develop the emissions 
inventories for the RFP milestone years (i.e., 2017, 2020, 2023) and 
attainment year (2026), CARB also relied upon the same growth and 
control factors as the 2016 AQMP.\102\ For both sets of baseline 
emissions inventories (those in the 2016 AQMP and those in the 2018 SIP 
Update), emissions estimates reflect District rules adopted through 
December 2015 and CARB rules adopted through November 2015.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \101\ 2018 SIP Update, RFP demonstration, section IX-B, 44 and 
45.
    \102\ Documentation for the Coachella Valley RFP baseline and 
milestone emissions inventories is found in the 2018 SIP Update on 
pages 4-5, 44-45, and Appendix A, pages A-23 to A-26.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The updated RFP demonstration for Coachella Valley for the 2008 
ozone NAAQS is shown in Table 5. The updated RFP demonstration 
calculates future year VOC targets from the 2011 baseline, consistent 
with CAA 182(c)(2)(B)(i), which requires reductions of ``at least 3 
percent of baseline emissions each year,'' and it substitutes 
NOX reductions for VOC reductions beginning in milestone 
year 2020 to meet VOC emission targets.\103\ For the Coachella Valley, 
CARB concludes that the RFP demonstration meets the applicable 
requirements for each milestone year as well as the attainment year.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \103\ NOX substitution is permitted under EPA 
regulations. See 40 CFR 51.1110(a)(2)(i)(C) and 40 CFR 
51.1110(a)(2)(ii)(B); and 70 FR 12264, at 12271 (March 6, 2015).

                                      Table 5--RFP Demonstration for the Coachella Valley for the 2008 Ozone NAAQS
                                                       [Summer planning inventory, tpd or percent]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                             VOC
                                   ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                         2011                 2017                      2020                      2023                     2026
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Baseline VOC......................            16.9  14.8....................  14.5....................  14.7...................  15.1
Required change since 2011 (VOC or  ..............  18%.....................  27%.....................  36%....................  45%
 NOX), %.
Required reductions since 2011....  ..............  3.0.....................  4.6.....................  6.1....................  7.6
Target VOC level..................  ..............  13.9....................  12.3....................  10.8...................  9.3
Apparent shortfall in VOC.........  ..............  -0.9....................  -2.2....................  -3.9...................  -5.8
Apparent shortfall in VOC, %......  ..............  -5.6%...................  -13.0%..................  -23.0%.................  -34.1%
VOC shortfall previously provided   ..............  0.0%....................  5.6%....................  13.0%..................  23.0%
 by NOX substitution, %.
Actual VOC shortfall, %...........  ..............  -5.6%...................  -7.5%...................  -10.0%.................  -11.1%
                                   ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[[Page 2965]]

 
                                                                                             NOX
rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr
Baseline NOX......................            29.8  18.1....................  14.9....................  10.2...................  9.1
Change in NOX since 2011..........  ..............  11.8....................  15.0....................  19.6...................  20.7
Change in NOX since 2011, %.......  ..............  39.4%...................  50.2%...................  65.8%..................  69.4%
NOX reductions used for VOC         ..............  0%......................  5.6%....................  13.0%..................  23.0%
 substitution through last
 milestone year, %.
NOX reductions since 2011           ..............  39.4%...................  44.6%...................  52.8%..................  46.4%
 available for VOC substitution in
 this milestone year, %.
NOX reductions since 2011 used for  ..............  5.6%....................  7.5%....................  10.0%..................  11.1%
 VOC substitution in this
 milestone year, %.
NOX reductions since 2011 surplus   ..............  33.9%...................  37.2%...................  42.9%..................  35.3%
 after meeting VOC substitution
 needs in this milestone year, %.
Total shortfall for RFP...........  ..............  0%......................  0%......................  0%.....................  0%
RFP met?..........................  ..............  Yes.....................  Yes.....................  Yes....................  Yes
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: Table VII-2 of the 2018 SIP Update.

3. The EPA's Review of the State's Submission
    In 2017, the EPA approved a 15 percent ROP plan for the Coachella 
Valley.\104\ As a result, the District and CARB have met the ROP 
requirements of CAA section 182(b)(1) for the Coachella Valley and do 
not need to demonstrate another 15 percent reduction in VOC for this 
area.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \104\ 82 FR 26854 (June 12, 2017).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Based on our review of the emissions inventory documentation in the 
2016 AQMP and 2018 SIP Update, we find that CARB and the District have 
used the most recent planning and activity assumptions, emissions 
models, and methodologies in developing the RFP baseline and milestone 
year emissions inventories. We have also reviewed the calculations in 
Table VII-2 of the 2018 SIP Update (presented in Table 2 above) and 
find that the District and CARB have used an appropriate calculation 
method to demonstrate RFP. For these reasons, we have determined that 
the 2016 Coachella Valley Ozone SIP demonstrates RFP, in each milestone 
year and the attainment year, consistent with applicable CAA 
requirements and EPA guidance. We therefore propose to approve the RFP 
demonstrations for the Coachella Valley for the 2008 ozone NAAQS under 
sections 172(c)(2), 182(b)(1) and 182(c)(2)(B) of the CAA and 40 CFR 
51.1110(a)(2)(ii).

F. Transportation Control Strategies and Measures to Offset Emissions 
Increases From Vehicle Miles Traveled

1. Stationary and Regulatory Requirements
    Section 182(d)(1)(A) of the Act requires, in relevant part, a state 
to submit, for each area classified as Serious or above, a SIP revision 
that ``identifies and adopts specific enforceable transportation 
control strategies and transportation control measures to offset any 
growth in emissions from growth in vehicle miles traveled or number of 
vehicle trips in such area.'' \105\ Herein, we use ``VMT'' to refer to 
vehicle miles traveled and refer to the related SIP requirement as the 
``VMT emissions offset requirement.'' In addition, we refer to the SIP 
revision intended to demonstrate compliance with the VMT emissions 
offset requirement as the ``VMT emissions offset demonstration.''
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \105\ CAA section 182(d)(1)(A) includes three separate elements. 
In short, under section 182(d)(1)(A), states are required to adopt 
transportation control strategies and measures to offset growth in 
emissions from growth in VMT, and, as necessary, in combination with 
other emission reduction requirements, to demonstrate RFP and 
attainment. For more information on the EPA's interpretation of the 
three elements of section 182(d)(1)(A). See 77 FR 58067 58068 
(September 19, 2012) (proposed withdrawal of approval of South Coast 
VMT emissions offset demonstrations). In section III.F of this 
document, we are addressing the first element of CAA section 
182(d)(1)(A) (i.e., the VMT emissions offset requirement). In 
sections III.E and D of this document, we are proposing to approve 
the RFP and attainment demonstrations, respectively, for the 2008 
ozone NAAQS in the Coachella Valley, and compliance with the second 
and third elements of section 182(d)(1)(A) is predicated on final 
approval of the RFP and attainment demonstrations.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    In Association of Irritated Residents v. EPA, the Ninth Circuit 
ruled that additional transportation control measures are required 
whenever vehicle emissions are projected to be higher than they would 
have been had VMT not increased, even when aggregate vehicle emissions 
are actually decreasing.\106\ In response to the court's decision, in 
August 2012, the EPA issued a memorandum titled ``Implementing Clean 
Air Act Section 182(d)(1)(A): Transportation Control Measures and 
Transportation Control Strategies to Offset Growth in Emissions Due to 
Growth in Vehicle Miles Travelled'' (``August 2012 Guidance'').\107\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \106\ See Association of Irritated Residents v. EPA, 632 F.3d. 
584, at 596-597 (9th Cir. 2011), reprinted as amended on January 27, 
2012, 686 F.3d 668, further amended February 13, 2012 (``Association 
of Irritated Residents'').
    \107\ Memorandum dated August 30, 2012, Karl Simon, Director, 
Transportation and Climate Division, Office of Transportation and 
Air Quality, to Carl Edland, Director, Multimedia Planning and 
Permitting Division, EPA Region 6, and Deborah Jordan, Director, Air 
Division, EPA Region 9.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The August 2012 Guidance discusses the meaning of ``transportation 
control strategies'' (TCS) and ``transportation control measures'' 
(TCM) and recommends that both TCSs and TCMs be included in the 
calculations made for the purpose of determining the degree to which 
any hypothetical growth in emissions due to growth in VMT should be 
offset. Generally, TCS is a broad term that encompasses many types of 
controls (including, for example, motor vehicle emissions limitations, 
I/M programs, alternative fuel programs, other technology-based 
measures, and TCMs) that would fit within the regulatory definition of 
``control

[[Page 2966]]

strategy.'' \108\ A TCM is defined at 40 CFR 51.100(r) as ``any measure 
that is directed toward reducing emissions of air pollutants from 
transportation sources,'' including, but not limited to, those listed 
in section 108(f) of the Clean Air Act. TCMs generally refer to 
programs intended to reduce VMT, number of vehicle trips, or traffic 
congestion, such as programs for improved public transit, designation 
of certain lanes for passenger buses and high-occupancy vehicles, and 
trip reduction ordinances.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \108\ See, e.g., 40 CFR 51.100(n).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The August 2012 Guidance explains how states may demonstrate that 
the VMT emissions offset requirement is satisfied in conformance with 
the Court's ruling in Association of Irritated Residents. Under the 
August 2012 Guidance, states would develop one emissions inventory for 
the base year and three different emissions inventory scenarios for the 
attainment year. For the attainment year, the state would present three 
emissions estimates, two of which would represent hypothetical 
emissions scenarios that would provide the basis to identify the 
``growth in emissions'' due solely to the growth in VMT, and one that 
would represent projected actual motor vehicle emissions after fully 
accounting for projected VMT growth and offsetting emissions reductions 
obtained by all creditable TCSs and TCMs. See the August 2012 Guidance 
for specific details on how states might conduct the calculations.
    The base year on-road VOC emissions should be calculated using VMT 
in that year, and it should reflect all enforceable TCSs and TCMs in 
place in the base year. This would include vehicle emissions standards, 
state and local control programs, such as I/M programs or fuel rules, 
and any additional implemented TCSs and TCMs that were already required 
by or credited in the SIP as of that base year.
    The first of the emissions calculations for the attainment year 
would be based on the projected VMT and trips for that year and assume 
that no new TCSs or TCMs beyond those already credited in the base year 
inventory have been put in place since the base year. This calculation 
demonstrates how emissions would hypothetically change if no new TCSs 
or TCMs were implemented, and VMT and trips were allowed to grow at the 
projected rate from the base year. This estimate would show the 
potential for an increase in emissions due solely to growth in VMT and 
trips. This represents a ``no action'' scenario. Emissions in the 
attainment year in this scenario may be lower than those in the base 
year due to the fleet that was on the road in the base year gradually 
being replaced through fleet turnover; however, provided VMT and/or 
numbers of vehicle trips will in fact increase by the attainment year, 
they would still likely be higher than they would have been assuming 
VMT had held constant.
    The second of the attainment year's emissions calculations would 
assume that no new TCSs or TCMs beyond those already credited have been 
put in place since the base year, but it would also assume that there 
was no growth in VMT and trips between the base year and attainment 
year. This estimate reflects the hypothetical emissions level that 
would have occurred if no further TCMs or TCSs had been put in place 
and if VMT and trip levels had held constant since the base year. Like 
the ``no action'' attainment year estimate described above, emissions 
in the attainment year may be lower than those in the base year due to 
the fleet that was on the road in the base year gradually being 
replaced by cleaner vehicles through fleet turnover, but in this case 
they would not be influenced by any growth in VMT or trips. This 
emissions estimate would reflect a ceiling on the attainment emissions 
that should be allowed to occur under the statute as interpreted by the 
court in Association of Irritated Residents because it shows what would 
happen under a scenario in which no offsetting TCSs or TCMs have yet 
been put in place and VMT and trips are held constant during the period 
from the area's base year to its attainment year. This represents a 
``VMT offset ceiling'' scenario. These two hypothetical status quo 
estimates are necessary steps in identifying the target level of 
emissions from which states would determine whether further TCMs or 
TCSs, beyond those that have been adopted and implemented in reality, 
would need to be adopted and implemented in order to fully offset any 
increase in emissions due solely to VMT and trips identified in the 
``no action'' scenario.
    Finally, the state would present the emissions that are actually 
expected to occur in the area's attainment year after taking into 
account reductions from all enforceable TCSs and TCMs. This estimate 
would be based on the VMT and trip levels expected to occur in the 
attainment year (i.e., the VMT and trip levels from the first estimate) 
and all of the TCSs and TCMs expected to be in place and for which the 
SIP will take credit in the area's attainment year, including any TCMs 
and TCSs put in place since the base year. This represents the 
``projected actual'' attainment year scenario. If this emissions 
estimate is less than or equal to the emissions ceiling that was 
established in the second of the attainment year calculations, the TCSs 
or TCMs for the attainment year would be sufficient to fully offset the 
identified hypothetical growth in emissions.
    If, instead, the estimated projected actual attainment year 
emissions are still greater than the ceiling which was established in 
the second of the attainment year emissions calculations, even after 
accounting for post-baseline year TCSs and TCMs, the state would need 
to adopt and implement additional TCSs or TCMs to further offset the 
growth in emissions. The additional TCSs or TCMs would need to bring 
the actual emissions down to at least the VMT offset ceiling estimated 
in the second of the attainment year calculations, in order to meet the 
VMT offset requirement of section 182(d)(1)(A) as interpreted by the 
Court.
2. Summary of State's Submission
    CARB prepared the VMT emissions offset demonstration for the 
Coachella Valley for the 2008 ozone NAAQS, and the District included it 
in Chapter 7 of the 2016 AQMP.\109\ In addition to the VMT emissions 
offset demonstration, Appendix VI-E of the 2016 AQMP includes two 
attachments--one listing the TCSs adopted by CARB since 1990 and 
another listing the TCMs developed by SCAG (as of September 2014) in 
the South Coast. As described above in section III.C.2.b, none of these 
TCMs apply in the Coachella Valley.\110\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \109\ 2016 AQMP, 7-32.
    \110\ Appendix VI-E, Attachments VI-E-1 and 2.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    For the VMT emissions offset demonstration, CARB used EMFAC2014, 
the latest EPA-approved motor vehicle emissions model for California 
available at the time the 2016 AQMP was developed.\111\ The EMFAC2014 
model estimates the on-road emissions from two combustion processes 
(i.e., running exhaust and start exhaust) and four evaporative 
processes (i.e., hot soak, running losses, diurnal losses, and resting 
losses). The EMFAC2014 model combines trip-based VMT data from the 
regional transportation planning agency (i.e., SCAG), starts data based 
on household travel surveys, and vehicle population data from the 
California Department of Motor Vehicles. These sets of data are

[[Page 2967]]

combined with corresponding emission rates to calculate emissions.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \111\ On August 15, 2019, the EPA approved and announced the 
availability of EMFAC2017, the latest update to the EMFAC model for 
use by State and local governments to meet CAA requirements. See 84 
FR 41717.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Emissions from running exhaust, start exhaust, hot soak, and 
running losses are a function of how much a vehicle is driven. 
Emissions from these processes are thus directly related to VMT and 
vehicle trips, and CARB included these emissions in the calculations 
that provide the basis for the Coachella Valley VMT emissions offset 
demonstration. CARB did not include emissions from resting loss and 
diurnal loss processes in the analysis because such emissions are 
related to vehicle population, not to VMT or vehicle trips, and thus 
are not part of ``any growth in emissions from growth in vehicle miles 
traveled or numbers of vehicle trips in such area'' under CAA section 
182(d)(1)(A).
    The Coachella Valley VMT emissions offset demonstration uses a 2012 
base year. The base year for VMT emissions offset demonstration 
purposes should generally be the same base year used for nonattainment 
planning purposes. In section III.A of this document, the EPA is 
proposing to approve the 2012 base year inventory for the Coachella 
Valley for the purposes of the 2008 ozone NAAQS, and thus, CARB's 
selection of 2012 as the base year for the Coachella Valley VMT 
emissions offset demonstration for the 2008 ozone NAAQS is appropriate.
    The Coachella Valley VMT emissions offset demonstration also 
includes the previously described three different attainment year 
scenarios (i.e., no action, VMT offset ceiling, and projected actual). 
The 2016 AQMP provides a demonstration of attainment of the 2008 ozone 
NAAQS in the Coachella Valley by the applicable attainment date, based 
on the controlled 2026 emissions inventory. As described in section 
III.D of this document, the EPA is proposing to approve the attainment 
demonstration for the 2008 ozone NAAQS for the Coachella Valley, and 
thus, we find CARB's selection of year 2026 as the attainment year for 
the VMT emissions offset demonstration for the 2008 ozone NAAQS to be 
acceptable.
    Table 6 summarizes the relevant distinguishing parameters for each 
of the emissions scenarios and shows CARB's corresponding VOC emissions 
estimates for the demonstration for the 2008 ozone NAAQS.

                                   Table 6--VMT Emissions Offset Inventory Scenarios and Results for 2008 Ozone NAAQS
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                        VMT                           Starts                 Controls      VOC Emissions
                        Scenario                         -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                               Year          1,000/day         Year          1,000/day         Year             tpd
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Base Year...............................................            2012          11,403            2012           2,007            2012             4.8
No Action...............................................            2026          14,977            2026           2,738            2012             3.1
VMT Offset Ceiling......................................            2012          11,403            2012           2,007            2012             2.5
Projected Actual........................................            2026          14,977            2026           2,738            2026             2.0
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: 2016 AQMP, Tables 7-9 and 7-10.

    For the base year scenario, CARB ran the EMFAC2014 model for the 
2012 base year using VMT and starts data corresponding to that year. As 
shown in Table 6, CARB estimates the Coachella Valley VOC emissions at 
4.8 tpd in 2012.
    For the ``no action'' scenario, CARB first identified the on-road 
motor vehicle control programs (i.e., TCSs \112\) put in place since 
the base year and incorporated into EMFAC2014, and then ran EMFAC2014 
with the VMT and starts data corresponding to the 2026 attainment year 
without the emissions reductions from the on-road motor vehicle control 
programs put in place after the base year. Thus, the no action scenario 
reflects the hypothetical VOC emissions in the attainment year if CARB 
had not put in place any additional TCSs after 2012. As shown in Table 
6, CARB estimates the ``no action'' Coachella Valley VOC emissions at 
3.1 tpd in 2026.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \112\ As discussed in section III.C.2.b and C.3 of today's 
notice, because of the significant influence of pollutant transport 
from the South Coast Air Basin on ozone conditions in the Coachella 
Valley, no TCMs are reasonably available for implementation in the 
Coachella Valley for the purposes of meeting the RACM requirement 
and neither the District nor CARB rely on implementation of any TCMs 
in the Coachella Valley to demonstrate implementation of RACM in the 
2016 Coachella Valley Ozone SIP. Similarly, no TCMs are included in 
the VMT emissions offset demonstration for the Coachella Valley.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    For the ``VMT offset ceiling'' scenario, CARB ran the EMFAC2014 
model for the attainment year but with VMT and starts data 
corresponding to base year values. Like the no action scenario, the 
EMFAC2014 model was adjusted to reflect the VOC emissions levels in the 
attainment years without the benefits of the post-base-year on-road 
motor vehicle control programs. Thus, the VMT offset ceiling scenario 
reflects hypothetical VOC emissions in the Coachella Valley if CARB had 
not put in place any TCSs after the base year and if there had been no 
growth in VMT or vehicle trips between the base year and the attainment 
year.
    The hypothetical growth in emissions due to growth in VMT and trips 
can be determined from the difference between the VOC emissions 
estimates under the ``no action'' scenario and the corresponding 
estimates under the ``VMT offset ceiling'' scenario. Based on the 
values in Table 6, the hypothetical growth in emissions due to growth 
in VMT and trips in the Coachella Valley would have been 0.6 tpd (i.e., 
3.1 tpd minus 2.5 tpd). This hypothetical difference establishes the 
level of VMT growth-caused emissions that need to be offset by the 
combination of post-baseline year TCSs and any necessary additional 
TCSs.
    For the ``projected actual'' scenario calculation, CARB ran the 
EMFAC2014 model for the attainment year with VMT and starts data at 
attainment year values and with the full benefits of the relevant post-
baseline year motor vehicle control programs. For this scenario, CARB 
included the emissions benefits from TCSs put in place since the base 
year. Between 2015 and 2026, VOC emissions from light-duty passenger 
vehicles in the Coachella Valley are projected to decline an additional 
54 percent.\113\ The most significant measures reducing VOC emissions 
during the 2012 to 2026 timeframe include the Advanced Clean Cars 
program, Zero Emission Vehicle requirements, and more stringent on-
board diagnostics requirements.\114\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \113\ Staff Report, ARB Review of the 2016 Air Quality 
Management Plan for the South Coast Air Basin and Coachella Valley, 
Release Date: March 7, 2017, Appendix C, Coachella Valley Weight of 
Evidence, C-9.
    \114\ Attachment V-E-1 to Appendix VI of the 2016 AQMP includes 
a list of the State's transportation control strategies adopted by 
CARB since 1990. Also see EPA final action on CARB mobile source SIP 
submittals at 81 FR 39424 (June 16, 2016), 82 FR 14446 (March 21, 
2017), and 83 FR 23232 (May 18, 2018).

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[[Page 2968]]

    As shown in Table 6, the projected actual attainment-year VOC 
emissions are 2.0 tpd. CARB compared this value against the 
corresponding VMT offset ceiling value to determine whether additional 
TCSs or TCMs would need to be adopted and implemented in order to 
offset any increase in emissions due solely to VMT and trips. Because 
the projected actual emissions are less than the corresponding VMT 
offset ceiling emissions, CARB concluded that the demonstration shows 
compliance with the VMT emissions offset requirement and that the 
adopted TCSs are sufficient to offset the growth in emissions from the 
growth in VMT and vehicle trips in the Coachella Valley for the 2008 
ozone NAAQS.
3. The EPA's Review of the State's Submission
    Based on our review of Coachella Valley VMT emissions offset 
demonstration in Chapter 7 of the 2016 AQMP, we find CARB's analysis to 
be consistent with our August 2012 Guidance and consistent with the 
emissions and vehicle activity estimates provided by CARB in support of 
the 2016 AQMP. We agree that CARB and SCAG have adopted sufficient TCSs 
to offset the growth in emissions from growth in VMT and vehicle trips 
in the Coachella Valley for the purposes of the 2008 ozone NAAQS. 
Therefore, we propose to approve the Coachella Valley VMT emissions 
offset demonstration element of the Coachella Valley Ozone SIP as 
meeting the requirements of CAA section 182(d)(1)(A).

G. Contingency Measures

1. Statutory and Regulatory Requirements
    Under the CAA, SIPs for 8-hour ozone nonattainment areas classified 
under subpart 2 as Moderate or above must include contingency measures 
consistent with sections 172(c)(9) and 182(c)(9). Contingency measures 
are additional controls or measures to be implemented in the event an 
area fails to make RFP or to attain the NAAQS by the attainment date. 
The SIP should contain trigger mechanisms for the contingency measures, 
specify a schedule for implementation, and indicate that the measure 
will be implemented without significant further action by the state or 
the EPA.\115\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \115\ 70 FR 71612 (November 29, 2005). See also 2008 Ozone SRR, 
80 FR 12264, 12285 (March 6, 2015).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Neither the CAA nor the EPA's implementing regulations establish a 
specific level of emissions reductions that implementation of 
contingency measures must achieve, but the EPA's 2008 Ozone SRR 
reiterates the EPA's policy that contingency measures should provide 
for emissions reductions approximately equivalent to one year's worth 
progress, amounting to reductions of 3 percent of the baseline 
emissions inventory for the nonattainment area.\116\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \116\ 80 FR 12264, 12285 (March 6, 2015).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    It has been the EPA's longstanding interpretation of CAA section 
172(c)(9) that states may meet the contingency measure requirement by 
relying on federal measures (e.g., federal mobile source measures based 
on the incremental turnover of the motor vehicle fleet each year) and 
local measures already scheduled for implementation that provide 
emissions reductions in excess of those needed to provide for RFP or 
expeditious attainment. The key is that the Act requires that 
contingency measures provide for additional emissions reductions that 
are not relied on for RFP or attainment and that are not included in 
the RFP or attainment demonstrations as meeting part or all of the 
contingency measure requirements. The purpose of contingency measures 
is to provide continued emissions reductions while a plan is being 
revised to meet the missed milestone or attainment date.
    The EPA has approved numerous SIPs under this interpretation--i.e., 
SIPs that use as contingency measures one or more federal or local 
measures that are in place and provide reductions in excess of the 
reductions required by the attainment demonstration or RFP plan,\117\ 
and there is case law supporting the EPA's interpretation in this 
regard.\118\ However, in Bahr v. EPA, the Ninth Circuit rejected the 
EPA's interpretation of CAA section 172(c)(9) as allowing for early 
implementation of contingency measures.\119\ The Ninth Circuit 
concluded that contingency measures must take effect at the time the 
area fails to make RFP or attain by the applicable attainment date, not 
before.\120\ Thus, within the geographic jurisdiction of the Ninth 
Circuit, states cannot rely on early-implemented measures to comply 
with the contingency measure requirements under CAA section 172(c)(9) 
and 182(c)(9).\121\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \117\ See, e.g., 62 FR 15844 (April 3, 1997) (direct final rule 
approving an Indiana ozone SIP revision); 62 FR 66279 (December 18, 
1997) (final rule approving an Illinois ozone SIP revision); 66 FR 
30811 (June 8, 2001) (direct final rule approving a Rhode Island 
ozone SIP revision); 66 FR 586 (January 3, 2001) (final rule 
approving District of Columbia, Maryland, and Virginia ozone SIP 
revisions); and 66 FR 634 (January 3, 2001) (final rule approving a 
Connecticut ozone SIP revision).
    \118\ See, e.g., LEAN v. EPA, 382 F.3d 575 (5th Cir. 2004) 
(upholding contingency measures that were previously required and 
implemented where they were in excess of the attainment 
demonstration and RFP SIP).
    \119\ Bahr v. EPA, 836 F.3d at 1235-1237 (9th Cir. 2016).
    \120\ Id. at 1235-1237.
    \121\ The Bahr v. EPA decision involved a challenge to an EPA 
approval of contingency measures under the general nonattainment 
area plan provisions for contingency measures in CAA section 
172(c)(9), but given the similarity between the statutory language 
in section 172(c)(9) and the ozone-specific contingency measure 
provision in section 182(c)(9), we find that the decision affects 
how both sections of the Act must be interpreted.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

2. Summary of the State's Submission
    The District and CARB had largely completed preparation of the 2016 
AQMP prior to the Bahr v. EPA decision, and thus, it relies solely upon 
surplus emissions reductions from already implemented control measures 
in the milestone and attainment years to demonstrate compliance with 
the contingency measure requirements of CAA sections 172(c)(9) and 
182(c)(9).\122\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \122\ 2016 AQMP, 4-51 and 4-52; Appendix VI-C, pages V-C-1 to V-
C-4.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    In the 2018 SIP Update, CARB revised the RFP demonstration for the 
2008 ozone NAAQS for several districts, including the Coachella Valley, 
and recalculated the extent of surplus emission reductions (i.e., 
surplus to meeting the RFP milestone requirement for a given milestone 
year) in the milestone years. In light of the Bahr v. EPA decision, 
however, the 2018 SIP Update does not rely on the surplus or 
incremental emissions reductions to comply with the contingency 
measures requirements of sections 172(c)(9) and 182(c)(9) but, to 
provide context in which to review contingency measures for the 2008 
ozone NAAQS, the 2018 SIP Update documents the extent to which future 
baseline emissions would provide surplus emissions reductions beyond 
those required to meet applicable RFP milestones. More specifically, 
the 2018 SIP Update identifies one year's worth of RFP as approximately 
0.5 tpd of VOC and estimates surplus NOX reductions as 
ranging from approximately 10.1 tpd to 12.8 tpd depending upon the 
particular RFP milestone year.\123\ For attainment contingency, the 
2018 SIP Update identifies anticipated reductions from the State's 
mobile source programs between 2026 and 2027.\124\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \123\ 2018 SIP Update, tables VII-2 and VII-5.
    \124\ 2018 SIP Update, Table VII-6.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    To comply with sections 172(c)(9) and 182(c)(9), as interpreted in 
the Bahr v. EPA decision, a state must develop, adopt and submit a 
contingency measure to be triggered upon a failure to meet RFP 
milestones or failure to attain the NAAQS by the applicable

[[Page 2969]]

attainment date regardless of the extent to which already-implemented 
measures would achieve surplus emissions reductions beyond those 
necessary to meet RFP milestones and beyond those predicted to achieve 
attainment of the NAAQS. Therefore, to fully address the contingency 
measure requirement for the 2008 ozone NAAQS in the Coachella Valley, 
the District has committed to develop, adopt and submit a contingency 
measure to CARB in sufficient time to allow CARB to submit the 
contingency measure as a SIP revision to the EPA within 12 months of 
the EPA's final conditional approval of the contingency measure element 
of the 2016 Coachella Valley Ozone SIP.\125\ The District's specific 
commitment is to modify one or more existing rules, or adopt a new rule 
or rules, to include a more stringent requirement or remove an 
exemption if the EPA determines that the Coachella Valley nonattainment 
area has missed an RFP milestone for the 2008 ozone NAAQS. More 
specifically, the District has identified a list of 8 different rules 
that the District is reviewing for inclusion of potential contingency 
provisions. The rules and the types of revisions under review for 
contingency purposes include, among others: amending existing Rule 
1110.2 (``Emissions from Gaseous- and Liquid-Fueled Engines'') to 
remove exemptions for orchard wind machines powered by internal 
combustion engines and agricultural stationary engines; amending 
existing Rule 1134 (``Emissions of Oxides of Nitrogen from Stationary 
Gas Turbines'') to require more stringent NOX limits for 
outer continental shelf turbines and produced gas turbines and/or 
remove or limit the exemptions for near-limit and low-use turbines; and 
adopting new Rule 1150.3 (``NOX Reductions from Combustion 
Equipment at Landfills'') to require more stringent NOX 
limits through use of gas clean-up or other technologies.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \125\ Letter dated August 2, 2019, from Wayne Nastri, SCAQMD 
Executive Officer, to Richard Corey, Executive Officer, CARB.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    CARB has separately committed to adopt and submit the District's 
revised rule(s) to the EPA within one year of the EPA's final action on 
the contingency measures element of the 2016 Coachella Valley Ozone 
SIP.\126\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \126\ Letter dated September 9, 2019, from Michael Benjamin, 
Chief, Air Quality and Science Division, CARB, to Amy Zimpfer, 
Associate Director, EPA Region IX.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

3. The EPA's Review of the State's Submission
    Sections 172(c)(9) and 182(c)(9) require contingency measures to 
address potential failure to achieve RFP milestones or failure to 
attain the NAAQS by the applicable attainment date. For the purposes of 
evaluating the contingency measure element of the 2016 Coachella Valley 
Ozone SIP, we find it useful to distinguish between contingency 
measures to address potential failure to achieve RFP milestones (``RFP 
contingency measures'') and contingency measures to address potential 
failure to attain the NAAQS (``attainment contingency measures'').
    With respect to the RFP contingency measures requirement, we have 
reviewed the surplus emissions estimates in each of the RFP milestone 
years, as shown in the 2018 SIP Update, and find that the calculations 
are correct. We therefore agree that the 2016 Coachella Valley Ozone 
SIP provides surplus emissions reductions well beyond those necessary 
to demonstrate RFP in all of the RFP milestone years. While such 
surplus emissions reductions in the RFP milestone years do not 
represent contingency measures themselves, we believe they are relevant 
in evaluating the adequacy of RFP contingency measures that are 
submitted (or will be submitted) to meet the requirements of sections 
172(c)(9) and 182(c)(9).
    In this case, the District and CARB have committed to develop, 
adopt, and submit a revised District rule or rules, or a new rule or 
rules, as an RFP contingency measure within one year of our final 
action on the 2016 Coachella Valley Ozone SIP. The specific types of 
revisions the District has committed to make upon an RPF milestone 
failure, such as increasing the stringency of an existing requirement 
or removing an exemption, would comply with the requirements in CAA 
sections 172(c)(9) and 182(c)(9) because they would be undertaken if 
the area fails to meet an RFP milestone and would take effect without 
significant further action by the state or the EPA.
    Neither the CAA nor the EPA's implementing regulations for the 
ozone NAAQS establish a specific amount of emissions reductions that 
implementation of contingency measures must achieve, but we generally 
expect that contingency measures should provide for emissions 
reductions approximately equivalent to one year's worth of RFP, which, 
for ozone, amounts to reductions of 3 percent of the baseline emissions 
inventory for the nonattainment area. For the 2008 ozone NAAQS in the 
Coachella Valley, one year's worth of RFP is approximately 0.5 tpd of 
VOC or 0.9 tpd of NOX reductions.\127\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \127\ The 2011 baseline for NOX and VOC is 29.8 tpd 
and 16.9 tpd, respectively, as shown in tables VII-1 and VII-2 of 
the 2018 SIP Update. Three percent of the baselines is 0.9 tpd of 
NOX and 0.5 tpd of VOC, respectively.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    In this instance, because of the nature of the District's intended 
contingency measure (i.e., to modify an existing rule or rules to 
increase the stringency or to remove an exemption), the District did 
not quantify the potential additional emission reductions from its 
contingency measure commitment, but we believe that it is unlikely that 
the RFP and attainment contingency measures, once adopted and 
submitted, will in themselves achieve one year's worth of RFP (i.e., 
0.5 tpd of VOC or 0.9 tpd of NOX) given the types of rule 
revisions under consideration and the magnitude of emissions reductions 
constituting one year's worth of RFP. However, the 2018 SIP Update 
provides the larger SIP planning context in which to judge the adequacy 
of the to-be-submitted District contingency measure by calculating the 
surplus emissions reductions estimated to be achieved in the RFP 
milestone years and the attainment year. Table VII-2 in the 2018 SIP 
Update identifies estimates of surplus NOX reductions in the 
Coachella Valley for each RFP milestone year. These estimates range 
from 33.9 percent in milestone year 2017 to 42.9 percent in milestone 
year 2023.\128\ These values far eclipse one year's worth of RFP (i.e., 
3 percent, approximately 0.5 tpd of VOC or 0.9 tpd NOX) and 
provide the basis to conclude that the risk of any failure to achieve 
an RFP milestone for the 2008 ozone NAAQS in the Coachella Valley is 
very low. The surplus reflects already implemented regulations and is 
primarily the result of vehicle turnover, which refers to the ongoing 
replacement by individuals, companies, and government agencies of 
older, more polluting vehicles and engines with newer vehicles and 
engines designed to meet more stringent CARB mobile source emission 
standards. In light of the extent of surplus NOX emissions 
reductions in the RFP milestone years, the emissions reductions from 
the District contingency measure would be sufficient to meet the 
contingency measure requirements of the CAA with respect to RFP 
milestones, even though the measure would likely achieve emissions 
reductions lower than the EPA normally recommends for reductions from 
such a measure.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \128\ 2018 SIP Update, Table VII-2.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    For the attainment contingency measure, CARB estimated 0.31 tpd of

[[Page 2970]]

NOX and 0.01 tpd VOC surplus reductions in 2027,\129\ which 
is short of the one year's worth of reductions necessary. We are not 
proposing action on the attainment contingency measures at this time. 
Attainment contingency measures are a distinct provision of the CAA 
that we may act on separately from the attainment requirements.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \129\ 2026 baseline emissions minus 2027 baseline emissions. See 
2018 SIP Update, Table VII-6.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    For these reasons, we propose to approve conditionally the RFP 
contingency measure element of the 2016 Coachella Valley Ozone SIP as 
supplemented by commitments from the District and CARB to adopt and 
submit contingency measures to meet the RFP and attainment contingency 
measure requirements of CAA sections 172(c)(9) and 182(c)(9). Our 
proposed approval is conditional because it relies upon commitments to 
adopt and submit specific enforceable contingency measures (i.e., 
revised or new District rule or rules with contingent provisions). 
Conditional approvals are authorized under CAA section 110(k)(4) of the 
CAA. We are not proposing action on the attainment contingency measure 
at this time.

H. Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets for Transportation Conformity

1. Statutory and Regulatory Requirements
    Section 176(c) of the CAA requires federal actions in nonattainment 
and maintenance areas to conform to the SIP's goals of eliminating or 
reducing the severity and number of violations of the NAAQS and 
achieving timely attainment of the standards. Conformity to the SIP's 
goals means that such actions will not: (1) Cause or contribute to 
violations of a NAAQS, (2) worsen the severity of an existing 
violation, or (3) delay timely attainment of any NAAQS or any interim 
milestone.
    Actions involving Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) or Federal 
Transit Administration (FTA) funding or approval are subject to the 
EPA's transportation conformity rule, codified at 40 CFR part 93, 
subpart A. Under this rule, metropolitan planning organizations in 
nonattainment and maintenance areas coordinate with state and local air 
quality and transportation agencies, the EPA, the FHWA, and the FTA to 
demonstrate that an area's regional transportation plans and 
transportation improvement programs conform to the applicable SIP. This 
demonstration is typically done by showing that estimated emissions 
from existing and planned highway and transit systems are less than or 
equal to the motor vehicle emissions budgets (MVEBs or ``budgets'') 
contained in all control strategy SIPs. Budgets are generally 
established for specific years and specific pollutants or precursors. 
Ozone plans should identify budgets for on-road emissions of ozone 
precursors (NOX and VOC) in the area for each RFP milestone 
year and, if the plan demonstrates attainment, the attainment 
year.\130\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \130\ 40 CFR 93.102(b)(2)(i).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    For budgets to be approvable, they must meet, at a minimum, the 
EPA's adequacy criteria at 40 CFR 93.118(e)(4). To meet these 
requirements, the budgets must be consistent with the attainment and 
RFP requirements and reflect all of the motor vehicle control measures 
contained in the attainment and RFP demonstrations.\131\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \131\ 40 CFR 93.118(e)(4)(iii), (iv) and (v). For more 
information on the transportation conformity requirements and 
applicable policies on MVEBs, please visit our transportation 
conformity website at: http://www.epa.gov/otaq/stateresources/transconf/index.htm.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The EPA's process for determining adequacy of a budget consists of 
three basic steps: (1) Providing public notification of a SIP 
submission; (2) providing the public the opportunity to comment on the 
budget during a public comment period; and, (3) making a finding of 
adequacy or inadequacy.\132\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \132\ 40 CFR 93.118(f)(2).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

2. Summary of the State's Submission
    The 2016 AQMP includes budgets for the 2018, 2021, and 2024 RFP 
milestone years, and a 2026 attainment year. The budgets for 2018, 
2021, and 2024 were derived from the 2012 RFP baseline year and the 
associated RFP milestone years. The budgets are affected by the South 
Coast II decision vacating the alternative baseline year provision, and 
therefore, the EPA has not previously acted on the budgets. In the 
submittal letters for the 2016 AQMP and the 2018 SIP Update, CARB 
requested that the EPA limit the duration of our approval of the 
budgets to last only until the effective date of future EPA adequacy 
findings for replacement budgets.\133\ On September 9, 2019, CARB 
provided further explanation in connection with its request to limit 
the duration of the approval of the budgets in the 2018 SIP 
Update.\134\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \133\ Letter dated April 27, 2017, from Richard Corey, Executive 
Officer, CARB, to Alexis Strauss, Acting Regional Administrator, EPA 
Region IX, and letter dated December 5, 2018, from Richard Corey, 
Executive Officer, CARB, to Mike Stoker, Regional Administrator, EPA 
Region IX.
    \134\ Letter dated September 9, 2019, from Dr. Michael T. 
Benjamin, Chief, Air Quality Planning and Science Division, CARB, to 
Amy Zimpfer, Assistant Director, Air Division, EPA Region IX.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The 2018 SIP Update revised the RFP demonstration consistent with 
the South Coast II decision (i.e., by using a 2011 RFP baseline year) 
and identifies new budgets for the Coachella Valley for VOC and 
NOX for each updated RFP milestone year through 2026. The 
budgets in this 2018 SIP Update replace all of the budgets contained in 
the 2016 AQMP.
    Like the budgets in the 2016 AQMP, the budgets in the 2018 SIP 
Update were calculated using EMFAC2014, the version of CARB's EMFAC 
model approved by the EPA for estimating emissions from on-road 
vehicles operating in California at the time the 2016 AQMP and 2018 SIP 
Update were developed. However, the budgets in the 2018 SIP Update 
reflect updated VMT estimates from the 2016 RTP/SCS \135\ and are 
rounded up to the nearest tenth tpd, instead of the nearest whole 
number. Accordingly, the updated budgets are more precise, and they 
align with the emissions inventory, RFP and attainment demonstrations 
in the 2016 AQMP.\136\ The conformity budgets for NOX and 
VOC in the 2018 SIP Update for the Coachella Valley are provided in 
Table 7 below.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \135\ 2016 RTP/SCS, Amendment 2, adopted by SCAG in July 2017.
    \136\ For instance, the 2016 AQMP estimates that 2026 on-road 
vehicle emissions (summer planning inventory) would be 2.93 tpd for 
VOC and 4.12 tpd for NOX. See Appendix A, page A-23 
through A-26. The corresponding budgets from the 2018 SIP Update are 
3.0 tpd for VOC and 4.2 tpd for NOX. See Table 5 and 
surrounding discussion in Section V of the TSD for this action for 
additional detail.

 Table 7--Transportation Conformity Budgets for the 2008 Ozone NAAQS in
                          the Coachella Valley
                    [Summer planning inventory, tpd]
------------------------------------------------------------------------
                    Budget Year                        VOC        NOX
------------------------------------------------------------------------
2020..............................................        3.7        8.4
2023..............................................        3.3        4.6
2026..............................................        3.0        4.2
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: Table VII-3 of the 2018 SIP Update.

3. The EPA's Review of the State's Submission
    As part of our review of the approvability of the budgets in the 
2018 SIP Update, we have evaluated the budgets using our adequacy 
criteria in 40 CFR 93.118(e)(4) and (5). We will complete the adequacy 
review concurrently with our final action on the 2016 Coachella Valley 
Ozone SIP. The EPA is not required under its transportation conformity 
rule to find budgets adequate prior to proposing

[[Page 2971]]

approval of them.\137\ Today, the EPA is announcing that the adequacy 
process for these budgets begins and the public has 30 days to comment 
on their adequacy, per the transportation conformity regulation at 40 
CFR 93.118(f)(2)(i) and (ii).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \137\ Under the transportation conformity regulations, the EPA 
may review the adequacy of submitted motor vehicle emission budgets 
simultaneously with the EPA's approval or disapproval of the 
submitted implementation plan. 40 CFR 93.118(f)(2).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    As documented in Table 4 of section V of the EPA's TSD for this 
proposal, we preliminarily conclude that the budgets in the 2018 SIP 
Update for the Coachella Valley meet each adequacy criterion. We have 
completed our detailed review of the 2016 Coachella Valley Ozone SIP 
and are proposing herein to approve the SIP revision's attainment and 
RFP demonstrations. We have also reviewed the budgets in the 2018 SIP 
Update and found that they are consistent with the attainment and RFP 
demonstrations for which we are proposing approval, are based on 
control measures that have already been adopted and implemented, and 
meet all other applicable statutory and regulatory requirements, 
including the adequacy criteria in 40 CFR 93.1118(e)(4) and (5). 
Therefore, we are proposing to approve the 2020, 2023, and 2026 budgets 
in the 2018 SIP Update (and shown in Table 7, above). At the point when 
we finalize our adequacy process or approve the budgets for the 2008 
ozone NAAQS in the 2018 SIP Update as proposed (whichever occurs first; 
note that they could also occur concurrently per 40 CFR 
93.118(f)(2)(iii)), then they will replace the budgets that we 
previously found adequate for use in transportation conformity 
determinations.\138\
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    \138\ We found adequate the budgets from the 2008 Ozone Early 
Progress Plan for the 1997 ozone NAAQS at 73 FR 25694 (May 7, 2008). 
The budgets in the 2018 SIP Update for the 2008 ozone NAAQS are 
lower than the corresponding budgets approved for the 1997 ozone 
NAAQS. For instance, the current budgets of 7 tpd for VOC and 26 tpd 
for NOX for all years, would be replaced by budgets of 
3.7 tpd for VOC and 8.4 tpd for NOX in 2020, and 3.3 tpd 
for VOC and 4.6 tpd for NOX in 2023.
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    Under our transportation conformity rule, as a general matter, once 
budgets are approved, they cannot be superseded by revised budgets 
submitted for the same CAA purpose and the same year(s) addressed by 
the previously approved SIP submittal until the EPA approves the 
revised budgets as a SIP revision. In other words, as a general matter, 
such approved budgets cannot be superseded by revised budgets found 
adequate, but rather only through approval of the revised budgets, 
unless the EPA specifies otherwise in its approval of a SIP by limiting 
the duration of the approval to last only until subsequently submitted 
budgets are found adequate.\139\
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    \139\ 40 CFR 93.118(e)(1).
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    In this instance, CARB has requested that we limit the duration of 
our approval of the budgets in the 2016 Coachella Valley Ozone SIP only 
until the effective date of the EPA's adequacy finding for any 
subsequently submitted budgets, and in September 2019, CARB provided 
further explanation for its request.\140\ Generally, we will consider a 
state's request to limit an approval of a budget only if the request 
includes the following elements: \141\
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    \140\ CARB's request to limit the duration of the approval of 
the Coachella Valley ozone MVEB is contained in a letter dated 
September 9, 2019, from Michael Benjamin, Chief, Air Quality and 
Science Division, CARB, to Amy Zimpfer, Associate Director, EPA 
Region IX.
    \141\ 67 FR 69141 (November 15, 2002), limiting our prior 
approval of MVEB in certain California SIPs.
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     An acknowledgement and explanation as to why the budgets 
under consideration have become outdated or deficient;
     A commitment to update the budgets as part of a 
comprehensive SIP update; and
     A request that the EPA limit the duration of its approval 
to the time when new budgets have been found to be adequate for 
transportation conformity purposes.
    CARB's request includes an explanation for why the budgets have 
become, or will become, outdated or deficient. In short, CARB has 
requested that we limit the duration of the approval of the budgets in 
light of the EPA's recent approval of EMFAC2017, an updated version of 
the model (EMFAC2014) used for the budgets in the 2016 Coachella Valley 
Ozone SIP.\142\ EMFAC2017 updates vehicle mix and emissions data of the 
previously approved version of the model, EMFAC2014.
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    \142\ On August 15, 2019, the EPA approved and announced the 
availability of EMFAC2017, the latest update to the EMFAC model for 
use by State and local governments to meet CAA requirements. See 84 
FR 41717.
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    Preliminary calculations by CARB indicate that EMFAC2017-derived 
motor vehicle emissions estimates for the Coachella Valley will exceed 
the corresponding EMFAC2014-derived budgets in the 2016 Coachella 
Valley Ozone SIP. In light of the approval of EMFAC2017, CARB explains 
that the budgets from the 2016 Coachella Valley Ozone SIP, for which we 
are proposing approval in today's action, will become outdated and will 
need to be revised using EMFAC2017. In addition, CARB states that, 
without the ability to replace the budgets using the budget adequacy 
process, the benefits of using the updated data may not be realized for 
a year or more after the updated SIP revision (with the EMFAC2017-
derived budgets) is submitted, due to the length of the SIP approval 
process. We find that CARB's explanation for limiting the duration of 
the approval of the budgets is appropriate and provides us with a 
reasonable basis on which to limit the duration of the approval of the 
budgets.
    We note that CARB has not committed to update the budgets as part 
of a comprehensive SIP update, but as a practical matter, CARB must 
submit a SIP revision that includes updated demonstrations as well as 
the updated budgets to meet the adequacy criteria in 40 CFR 
93.118(e)(4); \143\ and thus, we do not need a specific commitment for 
such a plan at this time. For the reasons provided above, and in light 
of CARB's explanation for why the budgets will become outdated and 
should be replaced upon an adequacy finding for updated budgets, we 
propose to limit the duration of our approval of the budgets in the 
2016 Coachella Valley Ozone SIP until we find revised budgets based on 
EMFAC2017 to be adequate.
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    \143\ Under 40 CFR 93.118(e)(4), the EPA will not find a budget 
in a submitted SIP to be adequate unless, among other criteria, the 
budgets, when considered together with all other emissions sources, 
are consistent with applicable requirements for RFP and attainment. 
40 CFR 93.118(e)(4)(iv).
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I. Other Clean Air Act Requirements Applicable to Severe Ozone 
Nonattainment Areas

    In addition to the SIP requirements discussed in the previous 
sections, the CAA includes certain other SIP requirements applicable to 
Severe ozone nonattainment areas, such as the Coachella Valley. We 
describe these provisions and their current status below.
1. Enhanced Vehicle Inspection and Maintenance Programs
    Section 182(c)(3) of the CAA requires states with ozone 
nonattainment areas classified under subpart 2 as Serious or above to 
implement an enhanced motor vehicle I/M program in those areas. The 
requirements for those programs are provided in CAA section 182(c)(3) 
and 40 CFR part 51, subpart S.
    Consistent with the 2008 Ozone SRR, no new I/M programs are 
currently required for nonattainment areas for the 2008 ozone 
NAAQS.\144\ The EPA previously approved California's I/M program in 
Coachella Valley as meeting

[[Page 2972]]

the requirements of the CAA and applicable EPA regulations for enhanced 
I/M programs.\145\
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    \144\ 2008 Ozone SRR, 80 FR 12264, at 12283 (March 6, 2015).
    \145\ 75 FR 38023 (July 1, 2010).
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2. New Source Review Rules
    Section 182(a)(2)(C) of the CAA requires states to develop SIP 
revisions containing permit programs for each of its ozone 
nonattainment areas. The SIP revisions are to include requirements for 
permits in accordance with CAA sections 172(c)(5) and 173 for the 
construction and operation of each new or modified major stationary 
source for VOC and NOX anywhere in the nonattainment 
area.\146\ The 2008 Ozone SRR includes provisions and guidance for 
nonattainment new source review (NSR) programs.\147\ The EPA has 
previously approved the District's NSR rules as they apply to Coachella 
Valley into the SIP based in part on a conclusion that the rules 
adequately addressed the NSR requirements specific to Severe 
areas.\148\ On December 13, 2018, the EPA approved the District's 2008 
ozone certification that its NSR program previously approved into the 
SIP is adequate to meet the requirements for the 2008 ozone NAAQS.\149\
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    \146\ See also CAA section 182(e).
    \147\ 80 FR 12264 (March 6, 2015).
    \148\ On December 4, 1996 (61 FR 64291), the EPA approved 
SCAQMD's NSR rules (the District's Regulation XIII) as satisfying 
the NSR requirements in title I, part D of the CAA for Extreme 
(South Coast) and Severe (Coachella Valley) ozone nonattainment 
areas.
    \149\ 83 FR 64026 (December 13, 2018).
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3. Clean Fuels Fleet Program
    Sections 182(c)(4)(A) and 246 of the CAA require California to 
submit to the EPA for approval measures to implement a Clean Fuels 
Fleet Program in ozone nonattainment areas classified as Serious and 
above. Section 182(c)(4)(B) of the CAA allows states to opt out of the 
federal clean-fuel vehicle fleet program by submitting a SIP revision 
consisting of a program or programs that will result in at least 
equivalent long-term reductions in ozone precursors and toxic air 
emissions.
    In 1994, CARB submitted a SIP revision to the EPA to opt out of the 
federal clean-fuel fleet program. The submittal included a 
demonstration that California's low-emissions vehicle program achieved 
emissions reductions at least as large as would be achieved by the 
federal program. The EPA approved the SIP revision to opt out of the 
federal program on August 27, 1999.\150\ There have been no changes to 
the federal Clean Fuels Fleet program since the EPA approved the 
California SIP revision to opt out of the federal program, and thus, no 
corresponding changes to the SIP are required. Thus, we find that the 
California SIP revision to opt out of the federal program, as approved 
in 1999, meets the requirements of CAA sections 182(c)(4)(A) and 246 
for Coachella Valley for the 2008 ozone NAAQS.
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    \150\ 64 FR 46849 (August 27, 1999).
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4. Gasoline Vapor Recovery
    Section 182(b)(3) of the CAA requires states to submit a SIP 
revision by November 15, 1992, that requires owners or operators of 
gasoline dispensing systems to install and operate gasoline vehicle 
refueling vapor recovery (``Stage II'') systems in ozone nonattainment 
areas classified as Moderate and above. California's ozone 
nonattainment areas implemented Stage II vapor recovery well before the 
passage of the CAA Amendments of 1990.\151\
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    \151\ General Preamble, 57 FR 13498, 13514 (April 16, 1992).
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    Section 202(a)(6) of the CAA requires the EPA to promulgate 
standards requiring motor vehicles to be equipped with onboard 
refueling vapor recovery (ORVR) systems. The EPA promulgated the first 
set of ORVR system regulations in 1994 for phased implementation on 
vehicle manufacturers, and since the end of 2006, essentially all new 
gasoline-powered light and medium-duty vehicles are ORVR-equipped.\152\ 
Section 202(a)(6) also authorizes the EPA to waive the SIP requirement 
under CAA section 182(b)(3) for installation of Stage II vapor recovery 
systems after such time as the EPA determines that ORVR systems are in 
widespread use throughout the motor vehicle fleet. Effective May 16, 
2012, the EPA waived the requirement of CAA section 182(b)(3) for Stage 
II vapor recovery systems in ozone nonattainment areas regardless of 
classification.\153\ Thus, a SIP submittal meeting CAA section 
182(b)(3) is not required for the 2008 ozone NAAQS.
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    \152\ 77 FR 28772, at 28774 (May 16, 2012).
    \153\ 40 CFR 51.126(b).
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    While a SIP submittal meeting CAA section 182(b)(3) is not required 
for the 2008 ozone NAAQS, under California state law (i.e., Health and 
Safety Code section 41954), CARB is required to adopt procedures and 
performance standards for controlling gasoline emissions from gasoline 
marketing operations, including transfer and storage operations. State 
law also authorizes CARB, in cooperation with local air districts, to 
certify vapor recovery systems, to identify defective equipment and to 
develop test methods. CARB has adopted numerous revisions to its vapor 
recovery program regulations and continues to rely on its vapor 
recovery program to achieve emissions reductions in ozone nonattainment 
areas in California.
    In the Coachella Valley, the installation and operation of CARB-
certified vapor recovery equipment is required and enforced by SCAQMD 
Rules 461 (``Gasoline Transfer and Dispensing'') and 462 (``Organic 
Liquid Loading''). These rules were most recently approved into the SIP 
on April 11, 2013, and July 21, 1999, respectively.\154\
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    \154\ 78 FR 21542 and 64 FR 39037.
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5. Enhanced Ambient Air Monitoring
    Section 182(c)(1) of the CAA requires that all ozone nonattainment 
areas classified as Serious or above implement measures to enhance and 
improve monitoring for ambient concentrations of ozone, NOX, 
and VOC, and to improve monitoring of emissions of NOX and 
VOC. The enhanced monitoring network for ozone is referred to as the 
photochemical assessment monitoring station (PAMS) network. The EPA 
promulgated final PAMS regulations on February 12, 1993.\155\
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    \155\ 58 FR 8452 (February 12, 1993).
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    On November 10, 1993, CARB submitted to the EPA a SIP revision 
addressing the PAMS network for six ozone nonattainment areas, 
including the Southeast Desert Modified Air Quality Maintenance Area 
(SE Desert AQMA), to meet the enhanced monitoring requirements of CAA 
section 182(c)(1) and the PAMS regulations for the 1979 1-hour ozone 
NAAQS. The SE Desert AQMA included portions of Los Angeles, Riverside, 
and San Bernardino counties, including the area that would later be 
designated as the Riverside County (Coachella Valley) ozone 
nonattainment area for the 1997 and 2008 ozone NAAQS. The EPA 
determined that the PAMS SIP revision met all applicable requirements 
for enhanced monitoring and approved the PAMS submittal into the 
California SIP.\156\
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    \156\ 82 FR 45191 (September 28, 2017).
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    The 2016 AQMP discusses compliance with the CAA section 182(c)(1) 
enhanced monitoring requirements in terms of the District's ``Annual 
Air Quality Monitoring Network Plan (July 2016)'' (ANP).\157\ The 
District's 2016 ANP describes the steps taken to address the 
requirements of section 182(c)(1), includes descriptions of the PAMS 
program and

[[Page 2973]]

provides additional details about the PAMS network.\158\ The EPA 
approved the District's PAMS network as part of our annual approval of 
the District's ANP.\159\
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    \157\ 2016 AQMP, Table 6-2.
    \158\ 2016 ANP, 13-15, 28 and Appendix A, 8. Starting in 2007, 
the EPA's monitoring rules at 71 FR 61236 (October 17, 2006) 
required the submittal and EPA action on ANPs. SCAQMD's 2016 ANP can 
be found in the docket for today's action.
    \159\ Letter dated October 31, 2016, from Gwen Yoshimura, EPA 
Region IX to Matt Miyasoto, Deputy Executive Officer, SCAQMD, 
approving the 2016 South Coast ANP.
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    Prior to 2006, the EPA's ambient air monitoring regulations in 40 
CFR part 58 (``Ambient Air Quality Surveillance'') set forth specific 
SIP requirements (see former 40 CFR 52.20). In 2006, the EPA 
significantly revised and reorganized 40 CFR part 58.\160\ Under 
revised 40 CFR part 58, SIP revisions are no longer required; rather, 
compliance with EPA monitoring regulations is established through 
review of required annual monitoring network plans.\161\ The 2008 Ozone 
SRR made no changes to these requirements.\162\ Therefore, based on our 
review and approval of the 2016 ANP for South Coast, including the 
Coachella Valley, we find that the 2016 Coachella Valley Ozone SIP 
adequately addresses the enhanced monitoring requirements under CAA 
section 182(c)(1), and we propose to approve that portion of the plan.
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    \160\ 71 FR 61236 (October 17, 2006).
    \161\ 40 CFR 58.2(b) now provides ``The requirements pertaining 
to provisions for an air quality surveillance system in the SIP are 
contained in this part.''
    \162\ The 2008 ozone SRR addresses PAMS-related requirements at 
80 FR 12264, at 12291 (March 6, 2015).
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6. CAA Section 185 Fee Program
    Sections 182(d)(3) and 185 of the CAA require that the SIP for each 
Severe and Extreme ozone nonattainment area provide that, if the area 
fails to attain by its applicable attainment date, each major 
stationary source of VOC and NOX located in the area shall 
pay a fee to the state as a penalty for such failure for each calendar 
year beginning after the attainment date, until the area is 
redesignated as an attainment area for ozone. States are not yet 
required to submit a SIP revision that meets the requirements of CAA 
section 185 for the 2008 ozone NAAQS.\163\
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    \163\ See 40 CFR 51.1117. For the Coachella Valley, a section 
185 SIP revision for the 2008 ozone NAAQS will be due on July 20, 
2022.
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IV. Proposed Action

    For the reasons discussed in this notice, under CAA section 
110(k)(3), the EPA is proposing to approve as a revision to the 
California SIP the following portions of the Final 2016 Air Quality 
Management Plan submitted by CARB on April 27, 2017, and the 2018 SIP 
Update submitted on December 5, 2018, that compose the 2016 Coachella 
Valley Ozone SIP.
     Base year emissions inventory element in the 2016 AQMP as 
meeting the requirements of CAA sections 172(c)(3) and 182(a)(1) and 40 
CFR 51.1115 for the 2008 ozone NAAQS;
     RACM demonstration element in the 2016 AQMP as meeting the 
requirements of CAA section 172(c)(1) and 40 CFR 51.1112(c) for the 
2008 ozone NAAQS;
     Attainment demonstration element for the 2008 ozone NAAQS 
in the 2016 AQMP as meeting the requirements of CAA section 
182(c)(2)(A) and 40 CFR 51.1108;
     ROP demonstration element in the 2016 AQMP as meeting the 
requirements of CAA 182(b)(1) and 40 CFR 51.1110(a)(2) for the 2008 
ozone NAAQS;
     RFP demonstration element in the 2018 SIP Update as 
meeting the requirements of CAA sections 172(c)(2), 182(b)(1), and 
182(c)(2)(B), and 40 CFR 51.1110(a)(2)(ii) for the 2008 ozone NAAQS;
     VMT emissions offset demonstration element in the 2016 
AQMP as meeting the requirements of CAA section 182(d)(1)(A) and 40 CFR 
51.1102 for the 2008 ozone NAAQS;
     Motor vehicle emissions budgets in the 2018 SIP Update for 
the 2020 and 2023 RFP milestone years and the 2026 attainment year (see 
Table 7) because they are consistent with the RFP and attainment 
demonstrations for the 2008 ozone NAAQS proposed for approval herein 
and meet the other criteria in 40 CFR 93.118(e);
     Enhanced vehicle inspection and maintenance program 
element in the 2016 AQMP as meeting the requirements of CAA section 
182(c)(3) and 40 CFR 51.1102 for the 2008 ozone NAAQS;
     Clean fuels fleet program element in the 2016 AQMP as 
meeting the requirements of CAA sections 182(c)(4)(A) and 246 and 40 
CFR 51.1102 for the 2008 ozone NAAQS; and
     Enhanced monitoring element in the 2016 AQMP as meeting 
the requirements of CAA section 182(c)(1) and 40 CFR 51.1102 for the 
2008 ozone NAAQS.\164\
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    \164\ Regarding other applicable requirements for the 2008 ozone 
NAAQS in the Coachella Valley, the EPA has previously approved SIP 
revisions that address the nonattainment area requirements for NSR 
and for implementation of RACT for the South Coast, including the 
Coachella Valley, for the 2008 ozone NAAQS. See 83 FR 64026 
(December 13, 2018) (NSR) and 82 FR 43850 (September 20, 2017) 
(RACT). SIP revisions for the Coachella Valley addressing the 
penalty fee requirements under CAA sections 181(b)(4) and 185 are 
not yet due for the 2008 ozone NAAQS.
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    With respect to the MVEBs, we are proposing to limit the duration 
of the approval of the MVEBs to last only until the effective date of 
the EPA's adequacy finding for any subsequently submitted budgets. We 
are doing so at CARB's request and in light of the benefits of using 
EMFAC2017-derived budgets prior to our taking final action on the 
future SIP revision that includes the updated budgets.
    We are also proposing that paragraphs (e)(1)(A) and (B), (e)(2), 
(e)(5) and (e)(8) of District Rule 301 (``Permitting and Associated 
Fees''), submitted to the EPA on August 5, 2019, and approved on 
October 1, 2019, at 84 FR 52005, meet the emission statement 
requirements of CAA section 182(a)(3)(B) and 40 CFR 51.1102 for the 
2008 ozone NAAQS.
    Lastly, we are proposing, under CAA section 110(k)(4), to 
conditionally approve the contingency measure element of the Coachella 
Valley Ozone SIP as meeting the requirements of CAA sections 172(c)(9) 
and 182(c)(9) for RFP contingency measures. Our proposed approval is 
based on commitments by the District and CARB to supplement the element 
through submission, as a SIP revision (within one year of final 
conditional approval action), of a new or revised District rule or 
rules that would include a more stringent requirement or would remove 
an exemption if an RFP milestone is not met.\165\ We are not proposing 
action on the attainment contingency measure at this time.
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    \165\ Letter dated August 2, 2019, from Wayne Nastri, SCAQMD 
Executive Officer, to Richard Corey, CARB Executive Officer; and 
letter dated September 9, 2019, from Michael Benjamin, Chief, Air 
Quality and Science Division, CARB, to Amy Zimpfer, Associate 
Director, Air Division, EPA Region IX.
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    The EPA is soliciting public comments on the issues discussed in 
this document. We will accept comments from the public on this proposal 
for the next 30 days and will consider comments before taking final 
action.

V. Statutory and Executive Order Reviews

    Under the Clean Air Act, the Administrator is required to approve a 
SIP submission that complies with the provisions of the Act and 
applicable federal regulations. 42 U.S.C. 7410(k); 40 CFR 52.02(a). 
Thus, in reviewing SIP submissions, the EPA's role is to approve state 
choices, provided that they meet the criteria of the Clean Air

[[Page 2974]]

Act. Accordingly, this proposed action merely proposes to approve, or 
conditionally approve, state plans as meeting federal requirements and 
does not impose additional requirements beyond those imposed by state 
law. For that reason, this proposed action:
     Is not a ``significant regulatory action'' subject to 
review by the Office of Management and Budget under Executive Orders 
12866 (58 FR 51735, October 4, 1993) and 13563 (76 FR 3821, January 21, 
2011);
     Is not an Executive Order 13771 (82 FR 9339, February 2, 
2017) regulatory action because SIP approvals are exempted under 
Executive Order 12866;
     Does not impose an information collection burden under the 
provisions of the Paperwork Reduction Act (44 U.S.C. 3501 et seq.);
     Is certified as not having a significant economic impact 
on a substantial number of small entities under the Regulatory 
Flexibility Act (5 U.S.C. 601 et seq.);
     Does not contain any unfunded mandate or significantly or 
uniquely affect small governments, as described in the Unfunded 
Mandates Reform Act of 1995 (Pub. L. 104-4);
     Does not have Federalism implications as specified in 
Executive Order 13132 (64 FR 43255, August 10, 1999);
     Is not an economically significant regulatory action based 
on health or safety risks subject to Executive Order 13045 (62 FR 
19885, April 23, 1997);
     Is not a significant regulatory action subject to 
Executive Order 13211 (66 FR 28355, May 22, 2001);
     Is not subject to requirements of Section 12(d) of the 
National Technology Transfer and Advancement Act of 1995 (15 U.S.C. 272 
note) because application of those requirements would be inconsistent 
with the Clean Air Act; and
     Does not provide the EPA with the discretionary authority 
to address disproportionate human health or environmental effects with 
practical, appropriate, and legally permissible methods under Executive 
Order 12898 (59 FR 7629, February 16, 1994).
    In addition, the SIP is not approved to apply on any Indian 
reservation land or in any other area where the EPA or an Indian tribe 
has demonstrated that a tribe has jurisdiction. In those areas of 
Indian country, the proposed rule does not have tribal implications and 
will not impose substantial direct costs on tribal governments or 
preempt tribal law as specified by Executive Order 13175 (65 FR 67249, 
November 9, 2000).

List of Subjects in 40 CFR Part 52

    Environmental protection, Air pollution control, Incorporation by 
reference, Intergovernmental relations, Nitrogen dioxide, Ozone, 
Reporting and recordkeeping requirements, Volatile organic compounds.

    Authority: 42 U.S.C. 7401 et seq.

    Dated: December 19, 2019.
Deborah Jordan,
Acting Regional Administrator, Region IX.
[FR Doc. 2020-00538 Filed 1-16-20; 8:45 am]
 BILLING CODE 6560-50-P