Document ID: EPA-R02-OAR-2008-0497-0050
Agency: epa
Document Type: Supporting & Related Material
Title: 
Posted Date: 2009-01-26T05:00Z

Appendix D13

Additional Control Measures and Benefits Not Included in the Regional
Modeling

1.	Introduction

Some of the control measures that New Jersey is planning to propose have
emission benefits that were not included in the regional modeling
effort.  There are several reasons why these benefits were not included:
1) the control measures could not be quantified at the time that
regional modeling began and were thus not included; 2) the control
measure is only being considered by New Jersey and therefore was not
appropriate to include in regional modeling effort; 3) the emission
benefits for the control measure included in the regional modeling were
recalculated, and more emission benefits should have been included; and
4) the emission benefits do not take effect until later than 2009. 

In an effort to quantify the air quality benefits that may result from
these additional measures and additional emission reductions, New Jersey
modified an existing USEPA methodology in order to help reduce the
uncertainty that New Jersey will reach attainment by June 15, 2010. 
Also included in this methodology are some additional emission benefits
from rules that were already adopted. 

The remainder of this section:

outlines a methodology for making the conversion from emission
reductions to air quality benefits;

discusses each category of expected additional emission reductions; 

provides the total air quality benefits (in ppb) that New Jersey
estimates from the implementation of these additional measures, or
refinements to the modeled measures.

2.	Methodology for Converting Emission Reductions to Air Quality
Benefits

In order to relate emission reductions, as discussed in the previous
section, to improvements in air quality, the emission reductions were
converted to air quality benefits, i.e., ozone concentrations in ppb.

Methodology for quantifying the estimated improvement in air quality: 

In calculating the 1999 shortfalls for 1-hour ozone SIPs, the USEPA
established a simple method to estimate a change in air quality (ozone
concentration) due to an emission reduction in each nonattainment area. 
The relationship between emission reductions and the air quality
improvement exists for an entire nonattainment area (it is not State
specific).  New Jersey used essentially the same methodology used by the
USEPA in 1999 to calculate the relationship between emission reductions
and future 8-hour ozone concentrations. 

The updated methodology involves using the 2002 and 2006 (interpolated)
VOC and NOx emission inventories and actual monitoring data from the
controlling monitoring site in each nonattainment area to calculate the
ratio of the change in percent (%) ozone precursor concentration that
would result in a change in the ozone concentration (ppb).  The method
was updated by using new emission inventories and 8-hour instead of
1-hour ozone concentrations.  The NJDEP converted 2002 and 2009 regional
emission inventory data expressed as tons per year (tpy) from the
regional inventory compiled by MANE-VU to tpsd emissions to perform
these calculations.  Worksheets that show the details of the
calculations can be found in Attachment 1 to this Appendix.  Table D13.1
contains a summary of the methodology with a sample calculation.  The
emission reduction ratios in the Northern New Jersey/New
York/Connecticut nonattainment area are 29.0 tpd/ppb for VOC and 55.7
tpd/ppb for NOx.  The emission reduction ratios in the Southern New
Jersey/Philadelphia nonattainment area are 8.7 tpd/ppb for VOC and 15.9
tpd/ppb for NOx.  

Control Measures and Benefits

Additional control measures and additional benefits from existing
control measures for New Jersey are listed in Table D13.2. The benefits
of these measures will be seen by 2009 and are listed by nonattainment
area.  Emission reductions in other States in New Jersey’s multi-state
nonattainment areas are listed in Table D13.3. 

4.	Conversion of Benefits to Air Quality Improvements

Table D13.3 includes New Jersey emission benefits from Table D13.2, as
well as emission benefits from the other States that we share a
nonattainment area with for the High Electric Demand Day initiative. 

Table D13.1: Methodology for Converting Estimated Emission Reductions

To Air Quality Benefits

Methodology Description	Sample Calculation for Converting VOC Emission
Reductions to Air Quality Benefits 

a. The ratio of New Jersey’s 2002 inventory (in tpsd) to New
Jersey’s 2002 inventory (in tpy) was calculated (tpsd/tpy ratio).
979tpsd / 378,877tpy = 

0.0026

b. The 2002, 2006 (estimated by interpolation) and 2009 emission
inventories were converted from tpy to tons per summer day (tpsd) by
multiplying the 2002, 2006 and 2009 emission inventories from the
portion of each state in our nonattainment areas, by the New Jersey
tpsd/tpy ratio.	For New York:

318,692tpy X 0.0026 = 

822tpsd

c. The estimated emission inventories (in tpsd) for 2002, 2006 and 2009
from each State or portion of each state in our nonattainment areas were
totaled. The percentage difference between the 2002 emissions inventory
and estimated 2006 emissions inventory (by nonattainment area) was
calculated for each nonattainment area.	For Northern New Jersey/New
York/Connecticut nonattainment area: (1,649tpsd – 1,360tpsd) /
1,649tpsd X 100% = 17.55%

d. The difference between the 2002 and the 2006 design values for 8-hour
ozone at the controlling monitors for each nonattainment area was
calculated for each nonattainment area. (10 ppb in the Northern New
Jersey/New York/Connecticut nonattainment area and 13 ppb in the
Southern New Jersey/Philadelphia nonattainment area).	98ppb – 88ppb =
10ppb

e. An “emission reduction factor” was calculated for each
nonattainment area by dividing the percentage difference between the
2002 emissions and the estimated 2006 emissions (c.), by the change in
8-hour ozone monitoring data at the controlling monitor (d.). The
“emission reduction factor” is expressed as percent divided by ppb
(%/ppb).	17.55% / 10ppb = 1.76

f. The emission reductions that caused a reduction in 8-hour ozone for
each nonattainment area were calculated by multiplying the “emission
reduction factor” (e.) calculated for each nonattainment area by the
2002 emission inventory for the entire nonattainment area, in tpsd.
(divided by 100).	1.76 X 1,649tpsd / 100% = 28.9tpsd

Table D13.2: Estimated Calculated Benefits from Control Measures and
Other Additional Benefits not Included in the Regional Modeling

 

	NY NAA

PHL NAA

Measure

	VOC	NOx

VOC	NOx

	Regional Control Measures

	New Jersey RACT – refinery efforts	 0.8	1.6

0.8	1.6

High Electrical Demand Day Initiative  (HEDD)	0	14

0	

6.1

State Control Measures

	Diesel idling rule changes	0	3

0	3

Diesel cutpoint rule changes	0.2	0.1

0.2	0.1

Case by case VOC and NOx emission limit determinations (1)

	Municipal Waste Combustors	0	0

0	0.8

New Jersey RACT – storage tank	1.7	0

0.4	0

USEPA CTGs: Flexible Packaging Printing Materials	0.05	0

0.05	0

USEPA CTGs: Offset Lithographic and Letterpress Printing Materials	0.2	0

0.2	0

USEPA CTGs: Flat Wood Paneling Coatings	0	0

0	0

Federal Control Measures

	USEPA Small Nonroad Engine Rule (1)

	Additional Benefits from modeled measures

	NOx RACT (2005) (2)	0	3.1

0	1.6

PFCs (2005 rule)	1.5	0

0.6	0

PFCs (amendments)	0.2	0

0.1	0

New ICI Boiler Rule	0	1.4

0	0.6

New Source Review (1)

TOTAL

	4.8	22.9

2.4	13.8

 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 

The benefits of this control strategy cannot be quantified at this time.

 Additional emission reductions not included in the modeling.

Table D13.3: Estimated Additional Reductions and Control Measures

Converted to Air Quality Improvements (tons per day)

 	Northern New Jersey/New York/Connecticut Nonattainment  Area	Southern
New Jersey/Philadelphia Nonattainment Area

Control Measures	VOC 	NOx	VOC 	NOx 

 	 	 	 	 

New Jersey: HEDD	0.0	13.7	0.0	6.1

Other New Jersey Emission Reductions	4.8	9.2	

2.4	

7.7

 	 	 	 	 

New York: HEDD	0	51	-	-

 	 	 	 	 

Connecticut: HEDD	0	12	-	-

 	 	 	 	 

Pennsylvania: HEDD	-	-	0	21.8

 	 	 	 	 

Delaware: HEDD	-	-	0	7

 	 	 	 	 

Maryland: HEDD	-	-	0	24

 	 	 	 	 

Nonattainment Area Totals	4.8	85.9	2.4	66.6

Tons per day Reductions for a 1 ppb O3 Reduction (tpd/ppb)	29.0	55.7	8.7
15.9

 	 	 	 	 

O3 Reductions from the measures listed in this table (ppb)	

       0.2	1.5	0.3	4.2

NJDEP, Air Quality Planning



Description of Control Measures and Benefits

a.	Regional Control Measures

The control measures identified under the Regional heading in Table
D13.2 are described in Chapter 4.  New Jersey, in conjunction with the
regional organizations - OTC for the High Electrical Demand Days (HEDD)
effort and MARAMA for the Refinery Rules - calculated the benefits from
these efforts for each New Jersey associated nonattainment area. The
refinery rule benefits are included for New Jersey only; the HEDD
benefits include the other States that share a nonattainment area with
New Jersey and are listed in Table 13.3.  Detailed discussion of the
benefit calculations for refineries and for the HEDD initiative is found
in Attachment 2 of this Appendix. 

b.	State Control Measures

Each of the New Jersey control measures identified in Table D13.2 is
described in Chapter 4.  Detailed discussion of the benefit calculations
for diesel idling rule changes, diesel cutpoint rule changes, municipal
waste combustors and petroleum storage tank rule can be found in this
Attachment 2 of this Appendix. 

In New Jersey, facilities that have sources with the potential-to-emit
NOx or VOC above Reasonably Available Control Technology (RACT)
specified thresholds, and for which no 8-hour ozone RACT source limit
has been established, will be required to develop facility specific
emission limits (FSELs) in accordance with regulations that New Jersey
is considering proposing.  Control technologies have advanced
sufficiently over the last several years to warrant the reevaluation of
these case-by-case, or source-specific, determinations.  However, the
NJDEP staff were not able to estimate additional specific emission
benefits for this control strategy in time to include in this SIP
revision.  

Subsequent to the proposed SIP revision, for the new CTGs, the NJDEP
staff has evaluated current sources of emissions to determine if New
Jersey has applicable sources, and whether or not New Jersey’s
existing rules are more stringent than the new CTGs.  The NJDEP staff
calculated a specific emission benefit for these control strategies but
they are not being relied upon in this SIP revision.  These reductions
are listed in Table 13.2.  However, these measures are expected to
provide measurable emission reductions by 2009, although they must go
through the rulemaking process.  

c.	Federal Control Measures

The Federal control measure identified in Table D13.2 is described in
Chapter 4.  On April 17, 2007, the USEPA proposed a new nonroad engine
rule that contains compliance dates that would result in some emission
benefits in 2009.  However, like the State case by case VOC and NOx
emission limit determinations, and the new Control Technique Guidance
(CTG) efforts, the USEPA and the State are not able to estimate a
specific emission benefit for this control strategy in time to include
in this SIP revision. 

d.	Additional Benefits from Modeled Measures

For several of the control measures that were included in the 2009 BOTW
modeling (either as a OTB measure or a BOTW measure), New Jersey
revisited the benefit calculations, either as part of its Reasonable
Further Progress (Chapter 6) exercise or in support of a rulemaking
proposal effort.  In all of these cases, New Jersey determined that the
emission reductions are greater than those that were included in the
2009 BOTW modeling.  Attachment 2 of this Appendix describes these
calculation refinements.	

Using this modified conversion methodology, the VOC emission reductions
expected from the control measures and refinements discussed in this
section result in an additional 0.2 ppb reduction in ozone in the
Northern New Jersey/New York/Connecticut nonattainment area and an
additional 0.3 ppb reduction in the Southern New Jersey/Philadelphia
nonattainment area.  The NOx emission reductions expected from the
control measures and refinements discussed in this section result in an
additional 2 ppb and 4 ppb reduction in 8-hour ozone in the Northern New
Jersey/New York/Connecticut nonattainment area and the Southern New
Jersey/Philadelphia nonattainment area, respectively.  In total, New
Jersey could experience a 0.2 – 2 ppb decrease in ozone concentrations
in the Northern part of the State, and a 0.3 – 4 ppb decrease in ozone
concentrations in the Southern part of the State.  Worksheets that
contain the details for performing these conversions can be found in
Attachment 1 to this Appendix.

Appendix  D13

Attachment 1: Methodology for Quantifying the Estimated Improvement in
Air Quality

Worksheets that show the details of the calculations for quantifying the
estimated improvement in air quality are available electronically upon
request.

 USEPA Region II. Technical Support Document: Modeling for the Trenton,
New Jersey Portion of the Philadelphia Ozone Nonattainment Area. United
States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA), Region II, December 14,
1999

 OTC.  Memorandum of Understanding Among the States of the Ozone
Transport Commission Concerning the Incorporation of High Electrical
Demand Day Emission Reduction Strategies into Ozone Attainment State
Implementation Planning, March 2, 2007.

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