Document ID: EPA-R01-OAR-2008-0445-0031
Agency: epa
Document Type: Supporting & Related Material
Title: 
Posted Date: 2010-09-20T04:00Z

A Modeling Protocol for the OTC SIP Quality Modeling System for
Assessment of the Ozone

 National Ambient Air Quality Standard in

 the Ozone Transport Region

December 31, 2006

The Modeling Committee of the

Ozone Transport Commission

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 STUDY DESIGN

1.1
Background……………………………………………………
………….……….6

1.2
Objectives……………………………………………………
…………………….6

1.3 Photochemical Modeling
System…………………………………………….…6

1.4
Deliverables……………………………………………………
………………….7

1.5
Schedule………………………………………………………
…………………..7

2 MANAGEMENT STRUCTURE

OTR Oversight
Committee………………………………………………………
.8

2.2 OTR Photochemical Modeling
Workgroup……………………………………..8

2.3 OTR Meteorological Modeling
Workgroup……………………………………..8

2.4 OTR Emission Inventory Development
Workgroup…………………………...8

2.5 OTR Control Strategy Development
Workgroup………………………………8

3 OTR MODELING DOMAIN

                    

3.1
Description……………………………………………………
……………………9

3.2 Horizontal Grid
Size…………………………………………………………
……9

	

3.2 Number of Vertical
Layers……………………………………………………….9 

 

4 OZONE EPISODES

4.1 EPA Episode Selection
Criteria…………………………………………………9

4.2 Proposed Episode Selection
Procedure………………………………………10

5 METEOROLOGICAL FIELDS

5.1 MM5 Meteorological
Fields……………………………………………………...11

5.2 Quality Assurance of MM5 Meteorological
Fields…………………………….11

6 BASE CASE EMISSION INVENTORIES FOR 2002

6.1 2002 Emission Inventories for OTC
States……………………………………11

	

6.2 2002 Emission Inventories for All Other OTR
States…………………………12

  

7 BASE CASE EMISSION INPUT FILES FOR 2002

7.1 Preparation of 2002 Emission Input Files for the OTR
Domain……………..12

7.2 Quality Assurance of 2002 Emission Input Files for the OTR
Domain……..12	

  

8 AIR QUALITY DATA

8.1 Initial
conditions……………………………………………………
………………12

8.2 Boundary
conditions……………………………………………………
…………13

	 

8.3 Ambient Air Quality
Data………………………………………………………….1
3

9 DIAGNOSTIC ANALYSES

9.1 Quality Assurance Tests of Input
Components…………………………………13

	

9.2 Diagnostic
Tests…………………………………………………………
…………13   

	

	

10 MODEL PERFORMANCE EVALUATION

10.1 Performance
Criteria………………………………………………………
……..13

10.2 Statistical Performance
Measures……………………………………………...14

11 CAA EMISSION INVENTORIES FOR 2009

11.1 CAA Emission Inventories for OTC States for
2009………………………….15

11.2 CAA Emission Inventories for all other OTR States for
2009………………..15

12 CAA EMISSION INPUT FILES FOR 2010 AND 2013 FOR THE OTR DOMAIN

12.1 2009 CAA Emission Input Files for OTR
Domain…………………………….15

13 OZONE CONTROL STRATEGY FOR THE OTR DOMAIN

13.1 OTC CALGRID System Screening
Runs……………………………………...15

13.2 OTC SIP Modeling Platform
Runs……………………………………………..16

13.3 Analysis of Available Air Quality and Emission
Databases……………..…..16 

13.4 OTR Domain Ozone Control
Strategy……………………………………..…..16

14 OZONE CONTROL STRATEGY EMISSION INPUT FILES 

14.1 2009 Ozone Control Strategy Emission Input Files for OTR
Domain………16 

	

15 OZONE PREDICTIONS FOR 2009 

15.1 Initial
Conditions……………………………………………………
……………..16 

15.2 Boundary
Conditions……………………………………………………
………..16

15.3 CAA Ozone Predictions for 2009
……………………………………………….17

15.4 Ozone Control Strategy Predictions for
2009………………………………….17

16 DOCUMENTATION
REPORT…………………………………………………………
.…17

17
REFERENCES……………………………………………………
………………………...17

APPENDIX A:  Workgroups for the Development and Application of the OTC
SIP Quality      

                         Modeling System For Assessment of the Ozone
National Ambient Air                                           Quality
Standard in the Ozone Transport Region

APPENDIX B:  Work Plan for the Development and Application of the OTC
SIP Quality      

                         Modeling System For Assessment of the Ozone
National Ambient Air                                           Quality
Standard in the Ozone Transport Region

1 STUDY DESIGN

1.1 Background

Moderate non-attainment areas in the Ozone Transport Region (OTR) are
required to attain the 8-hour ozone NAAQS by 2010.  Modeled or monitored
attainment is based on the summer ozone season preceding 2010, so the
target year for attainment modeling is 2009 for moderate non-attainment
areas. The Ozone Transport Commission (OTC) has embarked on the task of
preparing a State Implementation Plan (SIP) ozone modeling system for
exercising photochemical grid model(s) to assess the impact of candidate
ozone control strategies in moderate and serious non-attainment areas in
the OTR.  The OTC Directors endorsed the Modeling Protocol for the OTC
SIP Quality Modeling System For Assessment of the Ozone National Ambient
Air Quality Standard in the Ozone Transport Region at the November
12-13, 2003 Fall meeting of the OTC.  The subject protocol has been
modified since then to incorporate CMAQ model modifications and emission
inventory improvements.

This modeling protocol outlines procedures to prepare and use the OTC
SIP ozone modeling system to help design an ozone attainment strategy to
attain the ozone 8-hour NAAQS in the OTR.  Emission inventories for
point, area, on–road and off-road sources of NOx, VOC and CO will be
developed for a base year of 2002.  BEIS3 will be used to estimate
biogenic emissions.  MM5 will be used at a 12 km grid resolution and, in
the photochemical grid model, 4 km grid cells will be nested in urban
areas where appropriate.  A model performance evaluation will be
prepared for 2002.  If model performance is satisfactory, emission input
files reflecting candidate control strategy scenarios for 2009 will be
prepared, and 2009 ozone levels will be simulated with the modeling
system.  OTC States with moderate and serious non-attainment areas will
then use these modeling results to help support required ozone
attainment demonstrations. However, it has become apparent that modeling
at a higher resolution than 12 km is not possible without improvements
in the modeling system in terms of the physical and chemical formulation
as well as the need for development of emissions estimates at spatial
resolutions higher than county-level estimates.

1.2 Objective

The New York Department of Environmental Conservation has agreed to be
the lead agency 

for developing a SIP quality ozone modeling system for assessing the
future year attainment 

of the ozone 8-hour NAAQS in the OTR.  The CMAQ model will be used to
evaluate the effectiveness of control strategies in the OTR Modeling
Domain. The regulatory objective will be to design an ozone control
strategy that will result in attainment of the 8-hour ozone NAAQS in
moderate non-attainment areas by 2009.

1.3 Photochemical Modeling System

The OTC Modeling Committee in its prior work exercised both CMAQ and
CAMx and noticed that even though these models had performed similarly
in estimating ozone on an over-all basis, the level of agreement between
the simulated and measured concentrations varied from good to bad
depending on the model and depending upon the simulation day.  So, as
part of this protocol, both models (which continue to be updated by
their developers) will be applied for an episode that occurred in 2002.
However, it was soon recognized that there was a need for application of
a one-atmosphere modeling system that would provide estimates of both
ozone and particulate matter and that the same base year emissions and
meteorological data would be utilized in the development of appropriate
SIPs. This together with USEPA’s launching of the CMAS center that
provides a venue for sharing information from other modelers led the OTC
modeling committee to select the CMAQ model for application in its SIP
Quality Ozone Modeling System for testing the effectiveness of proposed
control strategies in the OTR.  

The OTC Modeling Committee also examined the performances of two
emissions processors (EMS2001 and SMOKE, both using CB4 chemistry) from
prior work and concluded that there are differences between them that
could be minimized by forcing the models to use a common speciation and
surrogate database. Since CMAQ was the air quality model of choice,
given that it handled inputs from SMOKE more readily than it did from
the EMS2001 processor, the SMOKE emission processor was selected for
constructing emission files for the SIP Quality Ozone Modeling System
for the OTR Domain. 

1.4 Deliverables

The key deliverables for the SIP quality ozone modeling system for the
OTR are listed below. 

Select Ozone Episodes

Prepare Meteorological Fields                                           
                                     

Prepare 2002 Emission Inventories for each OTC State

Acquire 2002 Emission Inventories for non-OTC States in the OTR Domain  
              

Prepare 2002 Emission Input Files for the OTR Domain                    
          

Complete 2002 Model Performance Evaluation for the OTR Domain 

Prepare 2009 CAA Emission Inventories for each OTC State

Acquire 2009 CAA Emission Inventories for non-OTC States in the OTR
Domain       

Prepare 2009 CAA Emission Input Files for the OTR Domain                
        

Complete Modeling Runs for 2009 CAA Scenarios                           
    

Design Control Strategy for the OTR Modeling Domain.                    
         

Prepare 2009 Emission Input Files for OTR Control Strategy              
       

Complete Modeling Runs for the OTR Control Strategy for 2009

Complete Evaluation Report for 2009 Control Strategy               

  

1.5 Schedule 

The schedule for developing the SIP quality modeling system and the
assessment of the ozone NAAQS in the Ozone Transport Region is provided
in Appendix A.  Because of delays encountered in developing, integrating
and processing state-of-the-art emission inventories from Regional
Planning Organizations in the MANE-VU modeling domain, schedule target
dates have been moved back approximately 9 months (complete Modeling TSD
report in March of 2007 instead of June of 2006).

2 MANAGEMENT STRUCTURE

	

2.1 OTR Oversight Committee (Appendix B)

OTC Air Directors will serve as the OTR Oversight Committee.  The Air
Directors will ensure 

that 2002 and 2009 CAA emission inventories are prepared for each OTC
state in the OTR 

Modeling Domain, and will also be responsible for obtaining emission
inventories for the non OTR States that are part of the OTR Modeling
Domain. The Air Directors will oversee the design of ozone control
strategies for the OTR, and will make the final decision on any funding
needed to develop the OTC SIP Quality Modeling System.  The Air
Directors will review all OTC SIP Quality Modeling System documentation
before it is released to interested parties. The state members of the
OTC Modeling Committee will keep Air Directors informed of the
development of the OTC SIP Quality Modeling System.

 

2.2 OTR Photochemical Modeling Workgroup (Appendix B)

                 

OTR Photochemical Modeling Workgroup will be responsible for preparing
the modeling 

assessment of the ozone NAAQS in the OTR.  The Workgroup will be
responsible for collecting 

and processing model input data, setting up all model input files,
performing model runs, and 

interpreting and documenting the results of the modeling analyses for
the OTR domain.  

The Workgroup will prepare and submit all OTC SIP quality modeling
system documentation to 

the OTC Air Directors.   

2.3 OTR Meteorological Modeling Workgroup (Appendix B)

                 

The OTR Meteorological Modeling Workgroup will be responsible for
preparing and assessing 

MM5 meteorological fields for the OTR Modeling Domain.  This Workgroup
will also work with 

the OTR Photochemical Modeling Workgroup to prepare all meteorological
input files for the 

OTC SIP quality modeling system.    

2.4 OTR Emission Inventory Development Workgroup (Appendix B)

The OTR Emission Inventory Development Workgroup will be responsible for
obtaining and 

developing guidance for preparing 2002 and 2009 state emission
inventories for all states in the 

OTR.  The OTC Air Directors will be responsible for obtaining emission
inventories for non-OTR 

states in the OTR Modeling Domain.  The Mid-Atlantic Regional Air
Management Association 

(MARAMA) and the Mid-Atlantic /Northeast Visibility Union (MANE-VU)
organizations will 

provide funding for contractors and work with OTR states to help prepare
state-of-the-art 2002 

emission files, 2009 CAA emission files and 2009 Control Strategy
emission files for the OTR 

Modeling Domain.  

2.5 OTR Control Strategy Development Workgroup (Appendix B)

The OTR Control Strategy Development Workgroup will be responsible for
designing an ozone control strategy for the OTR Domain that will attain
the ozone NAAQS by 2009 in moderate non-attainment areas and 2012 in
serious non-attainment areas.  The Workgroup will work with the OTC
stationary /area source committee and the OTC mobile source committee to
design an effective ozone control strategy for the OTR domain.  

3 OTR MODELING DOMAIN 

3.1 Description

The OTR modeling domain (see Figure 1) follows the national grid adopted
by the Regional Haze Regional Planning Organizations (RPOs), but with
focus on the eastern U.S. The areal extent of the domain was selected
such that the northeastern areas of Maine are inside the domain. Based
upon the existing computer resources, the southern and western
boundaries were limited to the region shown in Figure 1.  At a
horizontal grid resolution of 12 km, there are 172 grids in the
east-west and 172 grids in north-south direction.  Details of the
modeling system setup can be found at   HYPERLINK
"ftp://ftp.dec.state.ny.us/dar/air_research/gsistla/otc-mm5-cmaq-grid-de
f.doc" 
ftp://ftp.dec.state.ny.us/dar/air_research/gsistla/otc-mm5-cmaq-grid-def
.doc 

3.2 Horizontal Grid Size

Following EPA and as noted above, a 12 km grid resolution will be used
for the domain. A coarser mesh may not be appropriate for urban area
applications.  Modeling at a higher resolution than 12 km will not be
performed at this time; to do would require improvements in the modeling
system in terms of the physical and chemical formulation as well as the
need for development of emissions at a higher spatial resolution than
that for the currently available county-level estimates.

3.3 Number of Vertical Layers  

Similar to the horizontal grid spacing which is fixed by the default set
forth in the design of the meteorological model, in this case 12 km, the
definition of the vertical structure could also be adopted one-to-one
based upon the meteorological model which has 29 layers. However, given
the computational resources and runtime needs the number of vertical
layers in the photochemical model was limited to 22, of which the lower
16 layers (approximately 3km) were set one-to-one with those of the
meteorological model. 

                                               

4 OZONE EPISODES 

4.1 Episode Selection Criteria

Since it would be impractical to model every violation day, EPA has
recommended targeting a select group of episode days for ozone
attainment demonstrations.  Such episode days should be (1)
meteorologically representative of typical high ozone exceedance days in
the domain, and (2) so severe that any control strategies predicted to
attain the ozone NAAQS for that episode day would also result in
attainment for all other exceedance days.                 

Figure 1: OTC Modeling Domain with areal extent of 12km and 36km grids  
                                        

 

4.2 Proposed Episode Selection Procedure

While the above-suggested approach is perhaps feasible for isolated
urban areas, such an approach may not be meaningful given the areal
extent of concern and the modeling domain. Also, selection of episodes
from different years would require the generation of the meteorological
fields and emissions database, which would be an extremely difficult
proposition given the modeling domain.  The 2002 ozone season had a
significant number of exceedance days (the spatial distribution of the
daily 1-hr and 8-hr maxima over the eastern U. S. can be examined at the
site   HYPERLINK
"ftp://ftp.state.ny.us/dar/air_research/htdocs/index.html" 
ftp://ftp.state.ny.us/dar/air_research/htdocs/index.html ). It was
decided that the 5-month ozone season of 2002 would be simulated with
the OTC SIP Quality Modeling System which will involve investigating
numerous ozone episodes and would provide for better assessment of the
simulated pollutant fields.  The Environ report “Determination of
Representativeness of 2002 Ozone Season for Ozone Transport Region SIP
Modeling” demonstrated that 2002 episode days are (1) meteorologically
representative of typical high ozone exceedance days in the domain, and
(2) are probably so severe that control strategies predicted to attain
the ozone NAAQS for those episode day would also result in attainment
for all other exceedance days.   

5 METEOROLOGICAL FIELDS

5.1 MM5 Meteorological Fields

The MM5 setup has been described by Zhang (2000) for generating
meteorological fields based on a modified Blackadar scheme for the
boundary layer.  Since there are a variety of options that can be
exercised in the application of MM5, initial testing was performed for a
high ozone event of 2002 with the most commonly used default options as
well as with modified boundary layer schemes (Zhang and Zheng 2004). A
set of options was selected and used by Prof. Zhang of UMD in
consultation with NYDEC Staff for running MM5 for the 2002 5-month ozone
season. 

Quality Assurance of Meteorological Fields

As a part of this effort, the simulated meteorological fields will be
compared to data collected under CASTNET as well as with observations
from the National Weather Service (NWS).  Prior experience has shown
that these approaches provide for an independent assessment of the
simulated meteorological conditions. Also, data from any other special
measurements will be sought and compared with the simulated fields. This
analysis should provide a degree of confidence in the simulated
meteorological fields and their use in photochemical grid modeling. 
This work will be coordinated through the meteorological model work
group.

6 BASE CASE EMISSION INVENTORIES FOR 2002

6.1 2002 Base Case Emission Inventories for OTC states

Each state in the OTR Domain will prepare a 2002 base year emission
Inventory that include VOC, NOx, and CO for a typical ozone summer day. 
States are to follow EPA guidance documents for this base year
inventory, which is due to EPA by June 1, 2004.  Note this inventory may
also qualify as the consolidated emissions regulatory report (CERR).

Emissions for all categories will be estimated for each county and state
and the seasonal factors will facilitate spatial and temporal
adjustments for modeling.  Point and area source data will be submitted
by individual states to EPA for uploading to EPA's National Emission
Inventory (NEI) database using the required EPA format.  MOBILE6.2 input
files and VMT data will be submitted to NEI so that EPA can generate
on-road mobile emissions for each state by county in a format that can
be easily gridded and speciated.  Similarly, off-road input files will
be sent to EPA for running the latest NONROAD model.

It is anticipated that these state inventories will follow the EPA
prescribed approach and should be formatted in a consistent manner. 
While this protocol deals with 8-hr ozone issues, the inventory would
also contain the necessary information for exercising the particulate
option of the photochemical model.  This would be of help in those cases
where the one-atmosphere option is to be exercised in the assessment. 
Biogenic emissions will be estimated with EPA’s BEIS-3 emissions
model.

6.2 2002 Base Case Emission Inventories for All Other States in the OTR
Domain

A 2002 base year emission inventory that includes VOC, NOx, and CO for a
typical ozone summer day will be obtained for all non-OTC states in the
OTR domain.  It is anticipated that these inventories will be developed
following EPA guidance, and will be formatted in a consistent manner.  

  

7 BASE CASE EMISSION INPUT FILES FOR 2002

7.1 Preparation of 2002 Emission Input Files for the OTR Domain

Emissions data will be processed using SMOKE. The surrogate data files
for the OTR grid have been previously developed by NY DEC and will be
used in this study. For those pollutants that depend upon ambient
temperature, MM5 layer-1 gridded temperature fields will be used.  

7.2 Quality Assurance of 2002 Emission Input Files for the OTR Domain	

The processing of the emissions data will include several quality checks
before the data are exercised in the simulations.  Prior experience has
shown that considerable time and resources are often invested in
developing the gridded emissions data.  While there are many avenues to
improve or correct the data, based upon consensus of the OTC
Photochemical Modeling Workgroup, a definite closure of the emissions
processing will be adhered to and any further changes or corrections
will be archived and incorporated at a later date.  In performing this
work, close attention will be paid to the emissions within the OTR and,
if necessary, corrections will be incorporated on the advice of the OTC
Photochemical Modeling Workgroup.

Biogenic emissions will be prepared for each episode day using BEIS-3. 
The temperature data from MM5 layer-1 will be used along with cloud
cover information obtained from MM5.

8 AIR QUALITY DATA

8.1 Initial Conditions

Prior experience has shown that a 3-day ramp-up period is sufficient to
establish pollutant levels that are encountered in the beginning of the
ozone episode.  In this application clean conditions will be assumed for
the 1st hour of the simulation along with the emissions and boundary
conditions as described below. Since the application was to be in
one-atmosphere mode using a common platform, it was determined that a
longer ramp-up period of 15 days was needed because experiments
indicated that some of the PM2.5 species from the initial conditions
(IC) were retained for ramp-up periods of 10 days or less. Thus the CMAQ
model run will start on May 1, 2002; the first 15 days are assumed to be
ramp-up days and will not used for performance evaluation purposes.

8.2 Boundary Conditions

In prior studies attempts were made to include any available information
from ozonesondes and monitors that are near the western and northern
boundaries of the modeling domain. For this study, similar attempts will
be made to obtain pollutant data at the boundaries.

 

For boundary conditions, NY DEC will run CMAQ with the continental 36 km
grid using GEOS-CHEM simulation data for 2002.  The GEOS-CHEM
information will be obtained by NESCAUM from Prof. Daniel Jacob's group
of Harvard University. Hour by hour boundary conditions will then be
extracted from the continental 36 km CMAQ run results and used for the
OTR 12 km modeling domain.  

	 

8.3 Ambient Air Quality Data

Ambient air quality data will be extracted from the EPA AQS archive for
ozone, CO, NOx, and total and speciated hydrocarbons reported as part of
the PAMS network. Also, data from CASTNET will be obtained.  Since the
OTR modeling domain extends over two time zones, while the model
simulations are reflective of a single time zone, EST, there will be a
need to ”correct” the clock and assemble the ambient air quality
database.  Any special measurements that are relevant to this study
during the summer of 2002 will also be acquired, including upper air
measurements.

9 DIAGNOSTIC ANALYSES

9.1 Quality Assurance Tests of Input Components

	

Before proceeding with modeling, all air quality, emissions, and
meteorological data will be 

reviewed to ensure completeness, accuracy, and consistency.  Any errors,
missing data or

inconsistencies will be addressed using appropriate methods that are
consistent with standard practices.  

9.2 Diagnostic Tests 

	

Attempts will be made to perform diagnostic tests to ensure that the
simulated ozone patterns are in agreement with observed patterns over
the entire simulation period.  While it is unrealistic to expect
day-to-day agreement between the measured and predicted data, close
attention will be paid to the changes in pattern of the measured ozone
levels and the ability of the model to capture such changes. 

10 MODEL PERFORMANCE EVALUATION 

10.1 Performance Criteria

This is an area that will likely require dialog among member states. 
While there are many statistical tests that can be applied to predicted
ozone concentrations, it is important to define a priori some of the
conditions of the analysis and the targets of evaluation.  Also, it is
important to define the areal extent for which the assessment needs to
be done to address the performance of the model. Statistical tests are
to be applied to the precursor data as well, recognizing that all tests
applied to the ozone data may or may not be valid.  

As part of the model assessment, qualitative analysis will also be
performed by comparing predicted and measured pollutant fields to
establish if the spatial patterns are captured by the modeling system. 
This is a critical step, since the measured concentrations may fall into
a neighboring grid cell (but not at the measured location itself) and
may be found to be in good agreement. 

Another area that is quite important is the predictive ability of the
model with respect to height. Recognizing that the pollutants trapped
above the mixed layer during the overnight hours would mix down during
the daytime, comparison will be made between measurements and model
predictions.   Special attention will be paid to elevated monitoring
stations, such as the television tower near Durham, North Carolina; the
Sears Tower in Chicago, Illinois, and monitors located at elevated rural
stations at Whiteface Mountain, NY.  

10.2 Statistical Performance Measures 

The recommended EPA procedures will be used to calculate the recommended
performance measures.  At a minimum, the following three statistical
performance measures will be used to assess CAMx model performance for
each episode.

Unpaired highest-prediction accuracy  

     This measure quantifies the difference between the highest observed
eight-hour 

     value in the domain and the highest predicted value in the domain. 
The acceptable                performance range is plus or minus 15-20
percent.

                                 

Normalized bias          

     This measure indicates the degree to which simulated eight-hour
values are over or 

     under-predicted.  The acceptable performance range is plus or minus
5-15 percent.

 

Gross error of all pairs above 40 ppb    

      This measure indicates the average discrepancy between predicted
and observed 

      values and provides an overall assessment of model performance. 
The                     

      acceptable performance range is 30-35 percent.

11 CAA EMISSION INVENTORIES FOR 2009

11.1 CAA Emission Inventories for OTR States for 2009

Each OTC state in the OTR Domain will prepare a 2009 CAA emission
inventory that is consistent with the regulations and rules adopted or
expected to be in-place.  The inventory will be developed consistent
with EPA guidance.  The states will develop the information on growth
factors and controls used in the development of the inventory.  Each
state will submit a report on the development of these future year
inventories.

Since the electric energy generation and use are highly inter-connected,
coupled with the existing rules on trading and banking of pollutants, it
is expected that an inventory consistent with this information would be
developed for all electric energy generation units using models such as
IPM.

Recognizing that any prediction of future emissions are subject to
changes, the OTC Modeling Committee would develop a decision framework
on obtaining these emissions to be consistent with the OTC SIP quality
modeling system schedule (Appendix A).

11.2 CAA Emission Inventories for all non-OTR States for 2009

A 2009 CAA emission inventory that includes VOC, NOx, and CO for a
typical ozone summer day will be obtained for all non-OTC states in the
OTR.  It is anticipated that these inventories will be developed
following EPA guidance, and will be formatted in a consistent manner.

12 CAA EMISSION INPUT FILES FOR 2009 FOR THE OTR DOMAIN

12.1 CAA Emission Input Files for OTR Domain for 2009

2009 CAA emissions data will be processed using SMOKE. For pollutants
that depend on ambient temperature, MM5 layer-1 gridded temperature
fields will be used to estimate hourly emission rates.  The biogenic
emission input files prepared for the base 2002 will be used as a
surrogate for 2009 biogenic emissions.  These emissions data will be
processed using the quality assurance checks described in section 7.2.  

It should be noted that the CAA means all on the books and on the way
control measures (OTB/OTW) scheduled to be in effect by 2009. 

13 OTR DOMAIN OZONE CONTROL STRATEGY  

13.1 OTC CALGRID System Screening Runs

A series of CALGRID screening runs will be performed to investigate the
level of emissions reductions needed both within and outside of the OTR.
 This will help identify potential emission reductions scenarios that
can be used for CMAX future year SIP modeling runs.

13.2 OTC SIP Modeling Platform Runs

OTC SIP modeling platform CAA runs for 2009 will be reviewed to help
determine the level of emissions reductions needed to attain the ozone
NAAQS.   VOC and NOX sensitivity runs will also be performed to help
identify potential emission reductions scenarios that can be used to
lower ozone levels in the OTR.

13.3   Analysis of Available Air Quality and Emission Databases 

A review of air quality and emission databases (for example, EPA Clear
Skies and Transport Rule emission files) will be performed to help
identify potential source sectors of ozone precursors.  Analysis of
available EPA modeling results will also be performed to help identify
potential source sectors of ozone precursors in, and upwind, of the OTR
domain.  

13.4 Ozone Control Strategy for the OTR Domain

The OTR Control Strategy Development Team will review CALGRID results,
other available databases, and EPA databases, to help identify potential
control programs.  The Team will work with OTR states and the OTC
stationary, area and mobile source committees to design ozone control
strategies for the OTR Domain with the goal of meeting regulatory target
dates.

14 OZONE CONTROL STRATEGY EMISSION INPUT FILES

14.1 Ozone Control Strategy Emission Input Files for the OTR Domain for
2009

Emissions files for the selected ozone control strategy for the OTR
Domain for 2009 will be prepared in a consistent manner as per schedule.
 If necessary, additional IPM simulations may be performed to obtain EGU
emission estimates. 

   	   

15 OZONE PREDICTIONS FOR 2009

15.1 Initial Conditions 

The initial conditions at the startup will be “clean”.  The OTR
Modeling Team will use the 2002 initial condition files as a surrogate
for initial conditions for 2009 modeling runs.

15.2 Boundary conditions 

EPA will be consulted for guidance in estimating boundary conditions for
2009 or, under default, would utilize those adapted for the Base 2002
base year simulation. It should be noted that the default option was
used for the 2009 CMAQ simulation. 

15.3 CAA Ozone Predictions for 2009 

The model will be run with the CAA emission files developed for 2009. 
Tile plots, 

difference plots, and model statistics will be prepared to help
characterize the extent of 

any remaining non-attainment areas predicted in the OTR in 2009.  

15.4 Ozone Control Strategy Predictions for 2009.

The model will be run with OTR control strategy emission files prepared
for 2009.  Tile plots, difference plots and model statistics will be
prepared to help characterize the extent of any 

remaining non-attainment areas predicted in the OTR for the year 2009.

16 DOCUMENTATION

A report titled “Assessment of the Ozone National Ambient Air Quality
Standards in the Ozone Transport Region will be prepared by the OTR
Modeling Team”.  The report would cover model performance evaluation,
and an evaluation of the OTR control strategy runs for 2009. This
technical document will be made available to all interested parties and
will be used by the member States in their SIP submission documentation
as needed.

17 REFERENCES

Environ (2006): Determination of Representativeness of 2002 Ozone Season
for Ozone Transport Region SIP Modeling

Dalin Zhang (2000): Development of meteorological database for summer
1997 using MM5 at 12 km resolution in Photochemical Model Simulations

Dalin Zhang and William Zheng (2004): Diurnal cycles of surface winds
and temperatures as simulated by five boundary-layer parameterizations,
Journal of Appl. Meteorology 43, 157-169

Gopal Sistla (1999): Development of a surrogate database for use in
Regional/Urban-scale Modeling at 4 km spatial resolution (see  
HYPERLINK "http://envpro.ncsc.org/emcenter/" 
http://envpro.ncsc.org/emcenter/ )

Wick Havens (2000): Development of an Emissions Inventory for
Regional/Urban-scale Modeling, MARAMA-RTC (see  HYPERLINK
"http://www.marama.org/" http://www.marama.org/ )

APPENDIX A

Workgroups for the Development and Application of the OTC SIP Quality
Modeling System for Assessment of the Ozone National Ambient Air Quality
Standard in the Ozone Transport Region

OTC Photochemical Modeling Workgroup

State Lead	                             Gopal Sistla 

OTC contact		               Tom Frankiewicz 

Chair OTC Modeling Committee	Barbara Kwetz 

	

Delaware		Mohammed Majeed 

DC			Rama Tangirala 

Maine			Tom Downs 

Maryland		Mike Woodman 

Massachusetts		Steve Dennis 

New Hampshire	               Jeff Underhill 

			

New York		Gopal Sistla 

Pennsylvania		Tim Leon Gurrero 

			

NESCAUM		Gary Kleiman 

EPA			Invited for selected discussions

OTC Meteorological Modeling Workgroup

State Lead		Mike Woodman 

OTC contact		Tom Frankiewicz 

Connecticut		Dave Wackter

	

Delaware		Mohammed Majeed

DC			Rama Tangirala

Maine			Tom Downs

Maryland		Tad Aburn

			Matt Seybold

			Mike Woodman

			Jeff Stehr

Massachusetts		Rich Fields

New Hampshire	              Jeff Underhill

New Jersey		Alan Dresser

			

New York		Gopal Sistla

Pennsylvania		Tim Leon Gurrero

Vermont		               Paul Wishinski

Virginia		               Kirit Chaudhar

MARAMA		Serpil Kayin 

			

NESCAUM		Gary Kleiman 

EPA			Invited for selected discussions

OTC Emission Inventory Development Workgroup

State Lead		Ray Malenfant 

OTC contact	              Tom Frankiewicz 

Connecticut		Bill Simpson

Delaware		Dave Fees

DC			Rama Tangirala

Maine			Dave Wright

Maryland		Roger Thgunell

Massachusetts		Ken Santlal

New Hampshire	               Mike Fitzgerald

Andy Bodnarik

New Jersey		Joan Held

New York		Jim Ralston

Pennsylvania		Dean Van Orden

Rhode Island		Karen Slattery

Vermont		              Jeff Merrell

Virginia		              Tom Ballou

MARAMA		Serpil Kayin

EPA			Invited for selected discussions

OTC/MANE-VU Control Strategies Workgroup

State Lead	               Jeff Underhill 

OTC contact		Tom Frankiewicz 

Connecticut		Dave Wackter

			Kurt Kebschull

Delaware		Ray Malenfant

			Mohammed Majeed

Maine			Jeff Crawford

			Tom Downs

Maryland		Tad Aburn

			Matt Seybold

			Mike Woodman

			Jeff Stehr

Massachusetts		Eileen Hiney

			Steve Dennis

New Hampshire	              Jeff Underhill

Andy Bodnarik

New Jersey		Bob Stern

			Ray Papalski

			Alan Dresser

			Robert Huizer

New York		Gopal Sistla

Pennsylvania		Wick Havens

			Tim Leon Gurrero

Rhode Island		Barbara Morin

Vermont		              Paul Wishinski

Virginia		              Kirit Chaudhar

MARAMA		Serpil Kayin

			Megan Schuster

NESCAUM		Leah Weiss

			Gary Kleiman		

EPA			Invited for selected discussions

APPENDIX B

Work Plan for the Development and Application of the OTC SIP Quality
Modeling System.



Work plan for the Development and Application of the OTC SIP Quality
Modeling System†

Task

No.	

Activity or Task	Initial

Target

Date	Organization(s) Performing Task

	Remarks & Status Notes & Revisions

	Initial Planning

	1

	Prepare a Work plan and a Modeling Protocol for the development of the
OTC SIP quality modeling system to address ozone non-attainment problems
in the OTR.

	Nov 03

	NY, MA

	Completed

	Meteorology

	2

3

4	Complete MM5 modeling for 2002 (May thru Sep)

Episode evaluation and assessment

Evaluate MM5 data and process for photochemical models.

	Dec 04

Dec 04

Mar 05	MD (UMCP), NY

Contract Support

MD (UMCP), NY	In progress

In progress

Inn progress

	Emissions Inventories

	5

6

7

8

	Prepare 2002 emission inventories for MANEVU states in the OTR Domain.

Obtain 2002 emission inventories for non-MANEVU states in the OTR
Domain.

Prepare 2009 CAA emission inventories for MANEVU states in the OTR
Domain.

Obtain 2009 CAA emission inventories for non-MANEVU states in the OTR
Domain.	Jan 05 

Jan 05

Aug 05

Aug 05	MARAMA

MARAMA

MARAMA

MARAMA	

	Emission Input files

	9

10

11

	Prepare 2002 emission files for the OTR domain with SMOKE and /or
EMS2001, and QA emissions data.

Prepare 2009 CAA emission files for the OTR domain with SMOKE and /or
EMS2001, and QA emissions data.

Prepare 2009 emission files for OTR control strategy with SMOKE and /or
EMS2001, and QA emissions data.

	Nov 04

Nov 05

 

Nov 05	NY

NY 

NY 

	Delayed until Jan 05



Task

No.	

Activity or Task	Initial

Target

Date	Organization(s) Performing Task

	Remarks & Status Notes & Revisions

	Modeling

	12

13

14

15

	Complete 2002 model performance evaluation for OTR Domain.

Test model sensitivity to NOx, VOC reductions and potential control
measure options.

Complete modeling runs for 2009 CAA scenarios.

Complete modeling runs for 2009 OTR control strategy

	May 05

Sep 05

Jan 06

Jan 06	NY

NY

NY

NY

	

	OTR Control Strategy Development

	16

17

18	Perform screening runs with OTC CALGRID modeling system

Review air quality and emission databases to help identify potential
sources of ozone in the OTR.

Design Control Strategy for the OTR Domain            

	Mar 05

Jul 05

Sep 05

                    	OTR Control Strategy Development Workgroup

OTR Control Strategy Development Workgroup

OTR Control Strategy Development Workgroup

Reports

	19	Complete technical support documents presenting regional OTR
modeling and air quality/emission database analyses.  (These two
documents will provide technical support for state ozone SIPs. 

	Jun 06	NY, other OTC states	This will allow states nine months to
prepare SIP revisions due in April 2007.

	Management

	20

21	Day-to-day management and coordination.

Provide direction, oversight, and obtain any necessary funding. 
on-going

on-going

	OTC Modeling Committee

OTC Air Directors 

	

† To be used as needed for Ozone SIPs in the OTR.  Based on EPA draft
guidance, Ozone SIPs expected submission by April 2007.

 



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