Document ID: EPA-HQ-OAR-2013-0602-0472
Agency: epa
Document Type: Supporting & Related Material
Title: 
Posted Date: 2014-06-18T04:00Z

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Memo:	Emission Reductions, Costs, Benefits and Economic Impacts Associated with Building Blocks 1 and 2
1 	Introduction
This memo provides estimates of the costs, energy impacts, and the monetized climate benefits and air pollution health co-benefits associated with emission reductions for two illustrative compliance scenarios associated with building blocks 1 and 2 only. It also includes estimates of the labor impacts on the regulated sector. The methods applied to generate these estimates are described in detail in Chapter 3, 4, and 6 of the Regulatory Impact Analysis (RIA). For brevity, this memo just reports the results of these analyses.
EPA used the Integrated Planning Model (IPM), developed by ICF International, to conduct this analysis. It provides forecasts of least cost capacity expansion, electricity dispatch, and emission control strategies while meeting energy demand and environmental, transmission, dispatch, and reliability constraints.
     This analysis also evaluates the climate benefits associated with emission reductions of CO2 and the air pollution health co-benefits associated with reduced emissions of SO2, NOx, and PM2.5, which would lead to lower ambient concentrations of PM2.5 and ozone. Unlike the analysis of health co-benefits in Chapter 4 of the RIA, estimates of emissions reductions of directly emitted particles available are not available for this analysis. Similar to Chapter 4 of the RIA, unquantified co-benefits include exposure to several HAPs (including mercury and hydrogen chloride), carbon monoxide, SO2, and NO2, as well as ecosystem effects and visibility impairment. 
2	State Goals for Building Blocks 1 and 2
This analysis includes state-specific rate-based goals that reflect a two-building block approach. It is also based upon the same modeling framework, assumptions and calculations as presented in the RIA. The two-blocks incorporated in the following state goals include efficiency improvements at existing coal steam electric generating units (EGUs) and use of lower emitting power sources (increased utilization of existing NGCCs) and are identical to the proposed levels, included for purposes of establishing state-specific goals, associated with Option 1 (6% efficiency improvement and no more than 70% redispatch).
Table 1. State-specific Goals for Two-Block Approach for Existing Sources
State
                                     Rate
Alabama
                                     1,329
Alaska
                                     1,252
Arizona
                                      900
Arkansas
                                     1,115
California
                                      838
Colorado
                                     1,521
Connecticut
                                      809
Delaware
                                     1,013
Florida
                                      910
Georgia
                                     1,296
Hawaii
                                     1,751
Idaho
                                      858
Illinois
                                     1,865
Indiana
                                     1,834
Iowa
                                     1,846
Kansas
                                     2,186
Kentucky
                                     1,986
Louisiana
                                     1,099
Maine
                                      848
Maryland
                                     1,868
Massachusetts
                                      886
Michigan
                                     1,511
Minnesota
                                     1,369
Mississippi
                                      843
Missouri
                                     1,784
Montana
                                     2,295
Nebraska
                                     1,941
Nevada
                                      882
New Hampshire
                                      878
New Jersey
                                      905
New Mexico
                                     1,447
New York
                                      927
North Carolina
                                     1,329
North Dakota
                                     2,226
Ohio
                                     1,714
Oklahoma
                                     1,186
Oregon
                                      852
Pennsylvania
                                     1,480
Rhode Island
                                      918
South Carolina
                                     1,514
South Dakota
                                     1,456
Tennessee
                                     1,798
Texas
                                     1,083
Utah
                                     1,559
Virginia
                                     1,135
Washington
                                      811
West Virginia
                                     1,933
Wisconsin
                                     1,619
Wyoming
                                     2,151

3	Emissions and Power Sector Impacts
Tables 2 through 16 report the emissions and power sector impacts of the two-block approach. 
Table 2.  Projected CO2 Emission Impacts
 
                                 CO2 Emissions
                                  (MM Tonnes)
                    CO2 Emissions Reductions from Base Case
                                  (MM Tonnes)
            CO2 Emissions Reductions: Percent Change from Base Case
 
                                     2020
                                     2025
                                     2030
                                     2020
                                     2025
                                     2030
                                     2020
                                     2025
                                     2030
Base Case
                                     2,161
                                     2,231
                                     2,256
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
Two-Block  Regional
                                     1,930
                                     1,973
                                     1,997
                                      231
                                      258
                                      258
                                      11%
                                      12%
                                      11%
Two-Block State
                                     1,908
                                     1,947
                                     1,963
                                      252
                                      284
                                      292
                                      12%
                                      13%
                                      13%
Source: Integrated Planning Model run by EPA, 2014
Table 3. Projected Non-CO2 Emissions Reductions, 2020-2030

                                   Base Case
                                   Two Block
                                   Two Block

                                       
                                   Regional
                                     State
                                   Regional
                                     State
2020
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
SO2 (thousand tons)
                                     1,476
                                     1,243
                                     1,199
                                    -15.7%
                                    -18.8%
NOX (thousand tons)
                                     1,559
                                     1,319
                                     1,286
                                    -15.4%
                                    -17.5%
Hg (tons)
                                      8.3
                                      7.2
                                      7.1
                                    -12.8%
                                    -13.9%
HCl (thousand tons)
                                       8
                                       8
                                       8
                                     2.9%
                                     -1.3%
2025
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
SO2 (thousand tons)
                                     1,515
                                     1,228
                                     1,171
                                    -19.0%
                                    -22.7%
NOX (thousand tons)
                                     1,587
                                     1,317
                                     1,272
                                    -17.0%
                                    -19.9%
Hg (tons)
                                      8.7
                                      7.4
                                      7.3
                                    -14.9%
                                    -16.2%
HCl (thousand tons)
                                       8
                                       9
                                       9
                                     0.8%
                                     3.0%
2030
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
SO2 (thousand tons)
                                     1,530
                                     1,188
                                     1,134
                                    -22.3%
                                    -25.9%
NOX (thousand tons)
                                     1,537
                                     1,274
                                     1,224
                                    -17.1%
                                    -20.4%
Hg (tons)
                                      8.8
                                      7.4
                                      7.3
                                    -15.2%
                                    -16.8%
HCl (thousand tons)
                                       9
                                       9
                                       9
                                     0.0%
                                     -5.1%
Source: Integrated Planning Model run by EPA, 2014
Table 4.  Annualized Compliance Costs (billions of 2011$)
 
                                     2020
                                     2025
                                     2030
Two Block Regional
                                      3.2
                                      3.0
                                      6.8
Two Block State
                                      4.4
                                      4.6
                                      9.8
Source: Integrated Planning Model run by EPA, 2014

Table 5.  Generation Mix (thousand GWh) 
 
                             Base Case, Generation
                             Two Block, Generation
                           Two Block, Percent Change
 

                                   Regional
                                     State
                                   Regional
                                     State
2020
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
Pulverized Coal
                                     1,665
                                     1,435
                                     1,395
                                     -14%
                                     -16%
NG Combined Cycle (existing)
                                     1,003
                                     1,178
                                     1,170
                                      17%
                                      17%
NG Combined Cycle (new)
                                      85
                                      153
                                      199
                                      81%
                                     134%
Combustion Turbine
                                      19
                                      34
                                      31
                                      79%
                                      63%
Oil/Gas Steam
                                      52
                                      25
                                      26
                                     -51%
                                     -50%
Non-Hydro Renewables
                                      299
                                      300
                                      300
                                      0%
                                      0%
Hydro
                                      280
                                      283
                                      283
                                      1%
                                      1%
Nuclear
                                      817
                                      819
                                      819
                                      0%
                                      0%
Other
                                       8
                                       8
                                       9
                                      11%
                                      17%
Total
                                     4,227
                                     4,235
                                     4,232
                                      0%
                                      0%
2025
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
Pulverized Coal
                                     1,702
                                     1,420
                                     1,377
                                     -17%
                                     -19%
NG Combined Cycle (existing)
                                      919
                                     1,176
                                     1,144
                                      28%
                                      24%
NG Combined Cycle (new)
                                      280
                                      310
                                      385
                                      11%
                                      37%
Combustion Turbine
                                      27
                                      42
                                      38
                                      57%
                                      42%
Oil/Gas Steam
                                      37
                                      20
                                      20
                                     -47%
                                     -46%
Non-Hydro Renewables
                                      335
                                      335
                                      335
                                      0%
                                      0%
Hydro
                                      280
                                      282
                                      282
                                      1%
                                      1%
Nuclear
                                      817
                                      819
                                      819
                                      0%
                                      0%
Other
                                       6
                                       7
                                       8
                                      15%
                                      22%
Total
                                     4,404
                                     4,411
                                     4,408
                                      0%
                                      0%
2030
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
Pulverized Coal
                                     1,668
                                     1,372
                                     1,321
                                     -18%
                                     -21%
NG Combined Cycle (existing)
                                      810
                                     1,144
                                     1,099
                                      41%
                                      36%
NG Combined Cycle (new)
                                      599
                                      551
                                      644
                                      -8%
                                      7%
Combustion Turbine
                                      23
                                      43
                                      40
                                      92%
                                      78%
Oil/Gas Steam
                                      23
                                      15
                                      17
                                     -34%
                                     -29%
Non-Hydro Renewables
                                      350
                                      352
                                      353
                                      1%
                                      1%
Hydro
                                      280
                                      282
                                      282
                                      1%
                                      1%
Nuclear
                                      797
                                      797
                                      797
                                      0%
                                      0%
Other
                                       6
                                       7
                                       8
                                      23%
                                      31%
Total
                                     4,557
                                     4,565
                                     4,560
                                      0%
                                      0%
Note: "Other" mostly includes MSW and fuel cells. Source: Integrated Planning Model run by EPA, 2014

In 2020, incremental coal retirements relative to the base case are 24 GW in the regional scenario, and 32 GW in the state scenario.
Table 6. Total Generation Capacity by 2020-2030 (GW)
 
                                   Base Case
                                   Two Block
                                   Two Block
 

                                     Reg.
                                     State
                                     Reg.
                                     State
2020
 
 
 
 
 
Pulverized Coal
                                      244
                                      219
                                      211
                                     -10%
                                     -13%
NG Combined Cycle (existing)
                                      219
                                      221
                                      221
                                      1%
                                      1%
NG Combined Cycle (new)
                                      12
                                      23
                                      30
                                      93%
                                     153%
Combustion Turbine
                                      146
                                      148
                                      149
                                      1%
                                      2%
Oil/Gas Steam
                                      83
                                      80
                                      79
                                      -3%
                                      -5%
Non-Hydro Renewables
                                      93
                                      93
                                      93
                                      0%
                                      1%
Hydro
                                      101
                                      101
                                      101
                                      0%
                                      0%
Nuclear
                                      103
                                      103
                                      103
                                      0%
                                      0%
Other
                                       5
                                       5
                                       5
                                      2%
                                      2%
Total
                                     1,005
                                      994
                                      992
                                      -1%
                                      -1%
2025
 
 
 
 
 
Pulverized Coal
                                      243
                                      219
                                      211
                                     -10%
                                     -13%
NG Combined Cycle (existing)
                                      219
                                      221
                                      221
                                      1%
                                      1%
NG Combined Cycle (new)
                                      39
                                      49
                                      59
                                      25%
                                      52%
Combustion Turbine
                                      149
                                      160
                                      160
                                      8%
                                      7%
Oil/Gas Steam
                                      82
                                      80
                                      79
                                      -2%
                                      -4%
Non-Hydro Renewables
                                      103
                                      104
                                      104
                                      0%
                                      1%
Hydro
                                      101
                                      101
                                      101
                                      0%
                                      0%
Nuclear
                                      103
                                      103
                                      103
                                      0%
                                      0%
Other
                                       5
                                       5
                                       5
                                      2%
                                      2%
Total
                                     1,044
                                     1,042
                                     1,043
                                      0%
                                      0%
2030
 
 
 
 
 
Pulverized Coal
                                      240
                                      217
                                      209
                                     -10%
                                     -13%
NG Combined Cycle (existing)
                                      219
                                      221
                                      221
                                      1%
                                      1%
NG Combined Cycle (new)
                                      84
                                      88
                                      101
                                      6%
                                      20%
Combustion Turbine
                                      156
                                      174
                                      172
                                      12%
                                      10%
Oil/Gas Steam
                                      82
                                      80
                                      79
                                      -2%
                                      -4%
Non-Hydro Renewables
                                      107
                                      108
                                      109
                                      1%
                                      1%
Hydro
                                      101
                                      101
                                      101
                                      0%
                                      0%
Nuclear
                                      101
                                      101
                                      101
                                      0%
                                      0%
Other
                                       5
                                       5
                                       5
                                      2%
                                      2%
Total
                                     1,095
                                     1,095
                                     1,096
                                      0%
                                      0%
Source: Integrated Planning Model run by EPA, 2014
Table 7. Projected Capacity Factor of Existing Coal Steam and Natural Gas Combined Cycle Capacity
 
                              Existing Coal Steam
                      Existing Natural Gas Combined Cycle
 
                                     2020
                                     2025
                                     2030
                                     2020
                                     2025
                                     2030
                                                                      Base Case
                                      78%
                                      80%
                                      79%
                                      52%
                                      48%
                                      42%
                                                              Option 2 Regional
                                      75%
                                      74%
                                      72%
                                      61%
                                      61%
                                      59%
                                                                 Option 2 State
                                      75%
                                      74%
                                      72%
                                      60%
                                      59%
                                      57%
Source: Integrated Planning Model run by EPA, 2014

Table 88. Projected Capacity Additions, Gas (GW)

               Cumulative Capacity Additions: Gas Combined Cycle
         Incremental Cumulative Capacity Additions: Gas Combined Cycle

                                     2020
                                     2025
                                     2030
                                     2020
                                     2025
                                     2030
Base Case
                                     11.9
                                     38.9
                                     83.8
                                       
                                       
                                       
Two Block Regional
                                     23.1
                                     48.7
                                     88.5
                                     11.1
                                      9.8
                                      4.7
Two Block State
                                     30.2
                                     58.9
                                     100.7
                                     18.3
                                     20.0
                                     17.0
Source: Integrated Planning Model run by EPA, 2014
Table 9. Projected Capacity Additions, Non-hydro Renewable (GW)

                   Cumulative Capacity Additions: Renewables
             Incremental Cumulative Capacity Additions: Renewables

                                     2020
                                     2025
                                     2030
                                     2020
                                     2025
                                     2030
Base Case
                                     17.8
                                     28.4
                                     32.7
                                       
                                       
                                       
Two Block Regional
                                     18.1
                                     28.8
                                     33.6
                                      0.3
                                      0.4
                                      0.8
Two Block State
                                     18.3
                                     29.0
                                     33.7
                                      0.5
                                      0.6
                                      1.0
Source: Integrated Planning Model run by EPA, 2014
Table 10.  Coal Production for the Electric Power Sector, 2020

                           Coal Production (MM Tons)
                         Percent Change from Base Case

                                       
                                   Two Block
                                   Two Block

                                   Base Case
                                   Regional
                                     State
                                   Regional
                                     State
Appalachia
                                      140
                                      110
                                      111
                                     -22%
                                     -21%
Interior
                                      249
                                      230
                                      224
                                      -8%
                                     -10%
West
                                      446
                                      324
                                      308
                                     -27%
                                     -31%
Waste Coal
                                       9
                                      11
                                      11
                                      20%
                                      20%
Imports
                                       0
                                       0
                                       0
                                       
                                       
Total
                                      844
                                      675
                                      654
                                     -20%
                                     -22%
Source: Integrated Planning Model run by EPA, 2014
Table 11.  Power Sector Gas Use

                          Power Sector Gas Use (TCF)
                    Percent Change in Power Sector Gas Use

                                     2020
                                     2025
                                     2030
                                     2020
                                     2025
                                     2030
Base Case
                                     8.35
                                     8.88
                                     9.89
                                       
                                       
                                       
Two Block Regional
                                     9.90
                                     10.90
                                     12.14
                                     18.7%
                                     22.7%
                                     22.6%
Two Block State
                                     10.14
                                     11.14
                                     12.42
                                     21.5%
                                     25.5%
                                     25.6%

Table 12.  Projected Average Minemouth and Delivered Coal Prices (2011$/MMBtu)

                                   Minemouth
                       Delivered - Electric Power Sector

                                     2020
                                     2025
                                     2030
                                     2020
                                     2025
                                     2030
Base Case
                                     1.73
                                     1.88
                                     2.06
                                     2.62
                                     2.80
                                     2.98
Two Block Regional
                                     1.55
                                     1.69
                                     1.81
                                     2.32
                                     2.47
                                     2.59
Two Block State
                                     1.55
                                     1.69
                                     1.83
                                     2.31
                                     2.47
                                     2.62

Table 13.  Projected Average Minemouth and Delivered Coal Prices: Percent Change from Base Case Projections

                                   Minemouth
                       Delivered - Electric Power Sector

                                     2020
                                     2025
                                     2030
                                     2020
                                     2025
                                     2030
Two Block Regional
                                    -10.6%
                                    -10.5%
                                    -12.1%
                                    -11.5%
                                    -11.8%
                                    -13.0%
Two Block State
                                    -10.5%
                                    -10.4%
                                    -11.0%
                                    -11.7%
                                    -11.9%
                                    -12.2%

Table 14.  Projected Natural Gas Prices (2011$/MMBtu)
                                       
                                   Henry Hub
                       Delivered - Electric Power Sector
                                       
                                     2020
                                     2025
                                     2030
                                     2020
                                     2025
                                     2030
Base Case
                                     4.98
                                     5.68
                                     6.00
                                     5.36
                                     6.11
                                     6.39
                                                             Two Block Regional
                                     5.53
                                     6.06
                                     6.62
                                     5.90
                                     6.42
                                     6.94
                                                                Two Block State
                                     5.56
                                     6.10
                                     6.73
                                     5.93
                                     6.45
                                     7.05

Table 15.  Projected Natural Gas Prices: Percent Change from Base Case Projections
                                       
                                   Henry Hub
                       Delivered - Electric Power Sector
                                       
                                     2020
                                     2025
                                     2030
                                     2020
                                     2025
                                     2030
                                                             Two Block Regional
                                     10.9%
                                     6.7%
                                     10.3%
                                     9.9%
                                     5.0%
                                     8.6%
                                                                Two Block State
                                     11.5%
                                     7.3%
                                     12.2%
                                     10.6%
                                     5.5%
                                     10.3%

Table 16. 2020 Projected Contiguous U.S. and Regional Retail Electricity Prices (cents/kWh)
 
                    2020 Projected Retail Price (cents/kWh)
                         Percent Change from Base Case
 
                                   Base Case
                              Two Block Regional
                                Two Block State
                              Two Block Regional
                                Two Block State
ERCT
                                      9.9
                                     10.3
                                     10.4
                                     4.8%
                                     5.1%
FRCC
                                     10.6
                                     11.0
                                     11.2
                                     3.6%
                                     5.1%
MROE
                                     10.4
                                     10.5
                                     10.5
                                     0.6%
                                     0.5%
MROW
                                      9.2
                                      9.2
                                      9.3
                                     0.0%
                                     1.8%
NEWE
                                     13.8
                                     14.2
                                     14.5
                                     2.5%
                                     5.0%
NYCW
                                     18.0
                                     18.3
                                     18.5
                                     1.9%
                                     2.6%
NYLI
                                     14.7
                                     15.1
                                     15.2
                                     2.5%
                                     3.3%
NYUP
                                     12.7
                                     13.0
                                     13.1
                                     2.1%
                                     2.8%
RFCE
                                     12.2
                                     12.6
                                     12.7
                                     3.2%
                                     3.6%
RFCM
                                     10.7
                                     10.7
                                     10.8
                                     0.3%
                                     1.1%
RFCW
                                     10.1
                                     10.3
                                     10.4
                                     1.7%
                                     2.5%
SRDA
                                      9.0
                                      9.2
                                      9.2
                                     2.8%
                                     2.6%
SRGW
                                      9.3
                                      9.5
                                      9.6
                                     1.9%
                                     2.9%
SRSE
                                     10.4
                                     10.4
                                     10.5
                                     0.5%
                                     0.7%
SRCE
                                      8.2
                                      8.2
                                      8.2
                                     -0.9%
                                     -0.9%
SRVC
                                     10.7
                                     10.6
                                     10.7
                                     -0.3%
                                     -0.1%
SPNO
                                     10.6
                                     10.5
                                     10.5
                                     -1.0%
                                     -1.3%
SPSO
                                      8.3
                                      8.8
                                      8.8
                                     5.0%
                                     5.3%
AZNM
                                     10.5
                                     10.7
                                     10.8
                                     1.7%
                                     2.9%
CAMX
                                     14.3
                                     14.6
                                     14.6
                                     2.2%
                                     2.4%
NWPP
                                      7.3
                                      7.4
                                      7.4
                                     1.3%
                                     1.4%
RMPA
                                      8.9
                                      9.0
                                      9.2
                                     0.7%
                                     2.9%
Contiguous U.S.
                                     10.4
                                     10.6
                                     10.7
                                     1.9%
                                     2.5%

Table 17. 2025 Projected Contiguous U.S. and Regional Retail Electricity Prices (cents/kWh)
 
                    2025 Projected Retail Price (cents/kWh)
                         Percent Change from Base Case
 
                                   Base Case
                              Two Block Regional
                                Two Block State
                              Two Block Regional
                                Two Block State
ERCT
                                     11.2
                                     11.5
                                     11.5
                                     2.5%
                                     3.0%
FRCC
                                     10.9
                                     11.2
                                     11.3
                                     2.6%
                                     4.0%
MROE
                                     10.5
                                     10.5
                                     10.4
                                     0.3%
                                     -0.8%
MROW
                                      9.2
                                      9.4
                                      9.6
                                     1.9%
                                     4.2%
NEWE
                                     14.2
                                     14.6
                                     14.9
                                     2.2%
                                     4.4%
NYCW
                                     18.8
                                     19.2
                                     19.3
                                     2.0%
                                     2.3%
NYLI
                                     15.6
                                     16.0
                                     16.1
                                     2.9%
                                     3.3%
NYUP
                                     13.2
                                     13.5
                                     13.6
                                     2.0%
                                     2.3%
RFCE
                                     12.6
                                     12.8
                                     12.9
                                     1.6%
                                     2.0%
RFCM
                                     10.7
                                     10.8
                                     10.9
                                     0.7%
                                     1.8%
RFCW
                                     10.9
                                     11.0
                                     11.1
                                     0.7%
                                     1.0%
SRDA
                                      9.3
                                      9.6
                                      9.6
                                     2.7%
                                     3.0%
SRGW
                                     10.1
                                     10.3
                                     10.3
                                     1.3%
                                     1.9%
SRSE
                                     10.3
                                     10.5
                                     10.5
                                     1.1%
                                     1.1%
SRCE
                                      8.2
                                      8.1
                                      8.1
                                     -1.5%
                                     -1.7%
SRVC
                                     10.6
                                     10.6
                                     10.6
                                     -0.1%
                                     0.1%
SPNO
                                     10.3
                                     10.3
                                     10.3
                                     -0.2%
                                     -0.3%
SPSO
                                      8.8
                                      9.3
                                      9.2
                                     4.9%
                                     4.4%
AZNM
                                     10.8
                                     11.1
                                     11.3
                                     2.7%
                                     4.7%
CAMX
                                     13.9
                                     14.1
                                     14.1
                                     1.0%
                                     1.0%
NWPP
                                      7.4
                                      7.4
                                      7.5
                                     0.7%
                                     1.7%
RMPA
                                      9.4
                                      9.5
                                      9.7
                                     0.9%
                                     3.3%
Contiguous U.S.
                                     10.8
                                     10.9
                                     11.0
                                     1.4%
                                     2.0%

Table 18. 2030 Projected Contiguous U.S. and Regional Retail Electricity Prices (cents/kWh)
 
                    2030 Projected Retail Price (cents/kWh)
                         Percent Change from Base Case
 
                                   Base Case
                              Two Block Regional
                                Two Block State
                              Two Block Regional
                                Two Block State
ERCT
                                     11.6
                                     12.1
                                     12.1
                                     4.0%
                                     4.8%
FRCC
                                     10.9
                                     11.5
                                     11.6
                                     5.0%
                                     6.3%
MROE
                                     10.5
                                     10.7
                                     10.7
                                     2.3%
                                     1.6%
MROW
                                      9.4
                                      9.6
                                      9.8
                                     2.1%
                                     4.9%
NEWE
                                     15.1
                                     15.4
                                     15.4
                                     2.0%
                                     1.8%
NYCW
                                     19.9
                                     20.3
                                     20.3
                                     1.7%
                                     1.6%
NYLI
                                     16.9
                                     17.2
                                     17.1
                                     1.8%
                                     1.3%
NYUP
                                     14.2
                                     14.5
                                     14.5
                                     1.7%
                                     1.6%
RFCE
                                     12.4
                                     12.8
                                     12.8
                                     2.8%
                                     3.4%
RFCM
                                     10.8
                                     11.0
                                     11.1
                                     1.8%
                                     2.9%
RFCW
                                     11.2
                                     11.4
                                     11.4
                                     1.3%
                                     1.8%
SRDA
                                      9.5
                                      9.9
                                     10.0
                                     4.5%
                                     5.0%
SRGW
                                     10.4
                                     10.5
                                     10.6
                                     0.9%
                                     1.6%
SRSE
                                     10.4
                                     10.6
                                     10.7
                                     2.4%
                                     2.6%
SRCE
                                      8.1
                                      8.1
                                      8.1
                                     -1.2%
                                     -1.2%
SRVC
                                     10.4
                                     10.4
                                     10.5
                                     0.6%
                                     1.1%
SPNO
                                     10.2
                                     10.2
                                     10.2
                                     -0.1%
                                     0.2%
SPSO
                                      9.1
                                      9.7
                                      9.6
                                     6.3%
                                     6.1%
AZNM
                                     11.5
                                     11.8
                                     12.0
                                     2.7%
                                     4.4%
CAMX
                                     14.1
                                     14.4
                                     14.5
                                     1.9%
                                     2.3%
NWPP
                                      7.4
                                      7.5
                                      7.6
                                     1.2%
                                     2.6%
RMPA
                                      9.9
                                     10.1
                                     10.4
                                     2.1%
                                     5.7%
Contiguous U.S.
                                     10.9
                                     11.2
                                     11.3
                                     2.3%
                                     2.9%

4	Estimated Climate Benefits from CO2 Emission Reductions
Tables 19 through 21 report the climate benefits estimated in three analysis years (2020, 2025, and 2030) for the two illustrative compliance scenarios (i.e., state and regional) evaluated.
Table 19. Estimated Global Climate Benefits of CO2 Reductions for Building Blocks 1 and 2 in 2020 (billions of 2011$)*
                          Discount Rate and Statistic
                                    State 
                                   Regional
                     Million metric tonnes of CO2 reduced
                 252 
                 231 
                                 5% (average)
                                     $3.2
                                     $3.0
                                 3% (average)
                                      $12
                                      $11
                                2.5% (average)
                                      $17
                                      $16
                            3% (95[th] percentile)
                                      $34
                                      $31
* The SCC values are dollar-year and emissions-year specific. SCC values represent only a partial accounting of climate impacts.
Table 20. Estimated Global Climate Benefits of CO2 Reductions in 2025 (billions of 2011$)*
                          Discount Rate and Statistic
                                    State 
                                   Regional
                     Million metric tonnes of CO2 reduced
                 284 
                 258 
                                 5% (average)
                                     $4.2
                                     $3.9
                                 3% (average)
                                      $14
                                      $13
                                2.5% (average)
                                      $21
                                      $19
                            3% (95[th] percentile)
                                      $43
                                      $39
* The SCC values are dollar-year and emissions-year specific. SCC values represent only a partial accounting of climate impacts.
Table 21. Estimated Global Climate Benefits of CO2 Reductions in 2030 (billions of 2011$)*
                          Discount Rate and Statistic
                                    State 
                                   Regional
                     Million metric tonnes of CO2 reduced
                 292 
                 258 
                                 5% (average)
                                     $5.0
                                     $4.4
                                 3% (average)
                                      $16
                                      $14
                                2.5% (average)
                                      $23
                                      $21
                            3% (95[th] percentile)
                                      $50
                                      $44
* The SCC values are dollar-year and emissions-year specific. SCC values represent only a partial accounting of climate impacts.
5	Estimated Human Health Co-Benefits
Tables 22 through 24 provide the emission reductions estimated to occur in three analysis years (2020, 2025, and 2030) for two illustrative compliance scenarios (i.e., state and regional) by region (i.e., East, West, and California). Tables 25 through 27 report the health co-benefits estimated in three analysis years (2020, 2025, and 2030) for the two illustrative compliance scenarios (i.e., state and regional) evaluated.
Table 22.	Emission Reductions of Criteria Pollutants in 2020 (thousands of short tons)
                                    Region
                                      SO2
                                 All-year NOx
                               Ozone-Season NOx
State
                                       
                                       
                                       
  East
                                      253
                                      233
                                      96
  West
                                      23
                                      40
                                      17
  California
                                       0
                                       0
                                       0
                                     Total
                                      277
                                      273
                                      113
Regional
                                      216
                                      209
                                      86
  East
                                      15
                                      29
                                      12
  West
                                       1
                                       2
                                       1
  California
                                      232
                                      240
                                      98
                                     Total
                                      216
                                      209
                                      86

Table 23.	Emission Reductions of Criteria Pollutants in 2025 (thousands of short tons)
                                    Region
                                      SO2
                                 All-year NOx
                               Ozone-Season NOx
State
                                       
                                       
                                       
  East
                                      318
                                      265
                                      111
  West
                                      26
                                      41
                                      17
  California
                                       0
                                       9
                                       1
                                     Total
                                      344
                                      315
                                      128
Regional
                                       
                                       
                                       
  East
                                      265
                                      237
                                      97
  West
                                      22
                                      26
                                      11
  California
                                       1
                                       8
                                       1
                                     Total
                                      287
                                      270
                                      109

Table 24.	Emission Reductions of Criteria Pollutants in 2030 (thousands of short tons)
                                    Region
                                      SO2
                                 All-year NOx
                               Ozone-Season NOx
State
                                       
                                       
                                       
  East
                                      365
                                      265
                                      108
  West
                                      31
                                      48
                                      21
  California
                                       0
                                       0
                                       0
                                     Total
                                      396
                                      313
                                      128
Regional
                                       
                                       
                                       
  East
                                      316
                                      233
                                      92
  West
                                      26
                                      29
                                      12
  California
                                       1
                                       1
                                       0
                                     Total
                                      342
                                      263
                                      105

Table 25.	Summary of Estimated Monetized Health Co-benefits in 2020 (millions of 2011$)*
                                   Pollutant
                               3% Discount Rate
                               7% Discount Rate
State

  SO2
                                                                        $10,000
                                      to
$23,000
                                                                         $9,300
                                      to
$21,000
  NOx (as PM2.5)
                                                                         $1,600
                                      to
$3,600
                                                                         $1,400
                                      to
$3,200
  NOx (as Ozone)
                                                                           $450
                                      to
$1,900
                                                                           $450
                                      to
$1,900
                                     Total
                                                                        $12,000
                                      to
$29,000
                                                                        $11,000
                                      to
$26,000
Regional
 
  SO2
                                                                         $8,900
                                      to
$20,000
                                                                         $8,000
                                      to
$18,000
  NOx (as PM2.5)
                                                                         $1,500
                                      to
$3,300
                                                                         $1,300
                                      to
$3,000
  NOx (as Ozone)
                                                                           $410
                                      to
$1,700
                                                                           $410
                                      to
$1,700
                                     Total
                                                                        $11,000
                                      to
$25,000
                                                                         $9,800
                                      to
$23,000
* All estimates are rounded to two significant figures so numbers may not sum down columns. The estimated monetized co-benefits do not include climate benefits or reduced health effects from direct exposure to NO2, SO2, ecosystem effects, or visibility impairment. All fine particles are assumed to have equivalent health effects, but the benefit-per-ton estimates vary depending on the location and magnitude of their impact on PM2.5 levels, which drive population exposure. The monetized co-benefits incorporate the conversion from precursor emissions to ambient fine particles and ozone. Co-benefits for PM2.5 precursors are based on regional benefit-per-ton estimates. Co-benefits for ozone are based on ozone season NOx emissions. Ozone co-benefits occur in analysis year, so they are the same for all discount rates. Confidence intervals are unavailable for this analysis because of the benefit-per-ton methodology. In general, the 95[th] percentile confidence interval for monetized PM2.5 benefits ranges from approximately -90 percent to +180 percent of the central estimates based on Krewski et al. (2009) and Lepeule et al. (2012). 
Table 26.	Summary of Estimated Monetized Health Co-benefits in 2025 (millions of 2011$)*
                                   Pollutant
                               3% Discount Rate
                               7% Discount Rate
State

  SO2
                                                                        $14,000
                                      to
$32,000
                                                                        $13,000
                                      to
$29,000
  NOx (as PM2.5)
                                                                         $2,100
                                      to
$4,800
                                                                         $1,900
                                      to
$4,300
  NOx (as Ozone)
                                                                           $680
                                      to
$2,900
                                                                           $680
                                      to
$2,900
                                     Total
                                                                        $17,000
                                      to
$40,000
                                                                        $15,000
                                      to
$36,000
Regional
 
  SO2
                                                                        $12,000
                                      to
$27,000
                                                                        $11,000
                                      to
$24,000
  NOx (as PM2.5)
                                                                         $1,900
                                      to
$4,200
                                                                         $1,700
                                      to
$3,800
  NOx (as Ozone)
                                                                           $600
                                      to
$2,600
                                                                           $600
                                      to
$2,600
                                     Total
                                                                        $14,000
                                      to
$34,000
                                                                        $13,000
                                      to
$30,000
* All estimates are rounded to two significant figures so numbers may not sum down columns. The estimated monetized co-benefits do not include climate benefits or reduced health effects from direct exposure to NO2, SO2, ecosystem effects, or visibility impairment. All fine particles are assumed to have equivalent health effects, but the benefit-per-ton estimates vary depending on the location and magnitude of their impact on PM2.5 levels, which drive population exposure. The monetized co-benefits incorporate the conversion from precursor emissions to ambient fine particles and ozone. Co-benefits for PM2.5 precursors are based on regional benefit-per-ton estimates. Co-benefits for ozone are based on ozone season NOx emissions. Ozone co-benefits occur in analysis year, so they are the same for all discount rates. Confidence intervals are unavailable for this analysis because of the benefit-per-ton methodology. In general, the 95[th] percentile confidence interval for monetized PM2.5 benefits ranges from approximately -90 percent to +180 percent of the central estimates based on Krewski et al. (2009) and Lepeule et al. (2012). 
Table 27.	Summary of Estimated Monetized Health Co-benefits in 2030 (millions of 2011$)*
                                   Pollutant
                               3% Discount Rate
                               7% Discount Rate
State

  SO2
                                                                        $17,000
                                      to
$39,000
                                                                        $16,000
                                      to
$35,000
  NOx (as PM2.5)
                                                                         $2,100
                                      to
$4,700
                                                                         $1,900
                                      to
$4,200
  NOx (as Ozone)
                                                                           $700
                                      to
$3,000
                                                                           $700
                                      to
$3,000
                                     Total
                                                                        $20,000
                                      to
$47,000
                                                                        $18,000
                                      to
$43,000
Regional
                                                                              
  SO2
                                                                        $15,000
                                      to
$34,000
                                                                        $14,000
                                      to
$31,000
  NOx (as PM2.5)
                                                                         $1,800
                                      to
$4,100
                                                                         $1,700
                                      to
$3,700
  NOx (as Ozone)
                                                                           $600
                                      to
$2,600
                                                                           $600
                                      to
$2,600
                                     Total
                                                                        $18,000
                                      to
$41,000
                                                                        $16,000
                                      to
$37,000
* All estimates are rounded to two significant figures so numbers may not sum down columns. The estimated monetized co-benefits do not include climate benefits or reduced health effects from direct exposure to NO2, SO2, ecosystem effects, or visibility impairment. All fine particles are assumed to have equivalent health effects, but the benefit-per-ton estimates vary depending on the location and magnitude of their impact on PM2.5 levels, which drive population exposure. The monetized co-benefits incorporate the conversion from precursor emissions to ambient fine particles and ozone. Co-benefits for PM2.5 precursors are based on regional benefit-per-ton estimates. Co-benefits for ozone are based on ozone season NOx emissions. Ozone co-benefits occur in analysis year, so they are the same for all discount rates. Confidence intervals are unavailable for this analysis because of the benefit-per-ton methodology. In general, the 95[th] percentile confidence interval for monetized PM2.5 benefits ranges from approximately -90 percent to +180 percent of the central estimates based on Krewski et al. (2009) and Lepeule et al. (2012). 
6	Combined Climate Benefits and Health Co-benefits
      Tables 28 through 30 provide the combined climate and health benefits for each compliance scenarios evaluated for 2020, 2025, and 2030. 
Table 28.	Combined Climate Benefits and Health Co-Benefits in 2020 (billions of 2011$)*
                               SCC Discount Rate
                             Climate Benefits Only
                   Climate Benefits and Health Co-Benefits 
                 (Discount Rate Applied to Health Co-Benefits)
                                       
                                       
                                      3%
                                      7%
                                     State
                                      252
million metric tonnes CO2
                                       
                                      5%
                                     $3.2
                                                                            $16
                                      to
$32
                                                                            $14
                                      to
$29
                                      3%
                                      $12
                                                                            $24
                                      to
$40
                                                                            $23
                                      to
$38
                                     2.5%
                                      $17
                                                                            $30
                                      to
$46
                                                                            $28
                                      to
$43
                            3% (95[th] percentile)
                                      $34
                                                                            $47
                                      to
$63
                                                                            $46
                                      to
$61
                                   Regional
                                      231
million metric tonnes CO2
                                       
                                      5%
                                     $3.0
                                                                            $14
                                      to
$28
                                                                            $13
                                      to
$26
                                      3%
                                      $11
                                                                            $21
                                      to
$36
                                                                            $20
                                      to
$33
                                     2.5%
                                      $16
                                                                            $27
                                      to
$41
                                                                            $26
                                      to
$39
                            3% (95[th] percentile)
                                      $31
                                                                            $42
                                      to
$57
                                                                            $41
                                      to
$54
*All estimates are rounded to two significant figures. Climate benefits are based on reductions in CO2 emissions. Co-benefits are based on regional benefit-per-ton estimates. Co-benefits for ozone are based on ozone season NOx emissions. Ozone co-benefits occur in analysis year, so they are the same for all discount rates. The health co-benefits reflect the sum of the PM2.5 and ozone co-benefits and reflect the range based on adult mortality functions (e.g., from Krewski et al. (2009) with Bell et al. (2004) to Lepeule et al. (2012) with Levy et al. (2005)). The monetized health co-benefits do not include reduced health effects from direct exposure to NO2, SO2, and HAP; ecosystem effects; or visibility impairment. 

Table 29. Combined Climate Benefits and Health Co-Benefits in 2025 (billions of 2011$)*
                               SCC Discount Rate
                             Climate Benefits Only
                   Climate Benefits and Health Co-Benefits 
                 (Discount Rate Applied to Health Co-Benefits)
                                       
                                       
                                      3%
                                      7%
                                     State
                                      284
million metric tonnes CO2
                                       
                                      5%
                                     $4.2
                                                                            $21
                                      to
$44
                                                                            $20
                                      to
$40
                                      3%
                                      $14
                                                                            $31
                                      to
$54
                                                                            $30
                                      to
$50
                                     2.5%
                                      $21
                                                                            $38
                                      to
$61
                                                                            $36
                                      to
$57
                            3% (95[th] percentile)
                                      $43
                                                                            $60
                                      to
$83
                                                                            $59
                                      to
$79
                                   Regional
                                      258
million metric tonnes CO2
                                       
                                      5%
                                     $3.9
                                                                            $18
                                      to
$37
                                                                            $17
                                      to
$34
                                      3%
                                      $13
                                                                            $27
                                      to
$46
                                                                            $26
                                      to
$43
                                     2.5%
                                      $19
                                                                            $33
                                      to
$52
                                                                            $32
                                      to
$49
                            3% (95[th] percentile)
                                      $39
                                                                            $54
                                      to
$73
                                                                            $52
                                      to
$70
*All estimates are rounded to two significant figures. Climate benefits are based on reductions in CO2 emissions. Co-benefits are based on regional benefit-per-ton estimates. Co-benefits for ozone are based on ozone season NOx emissions. Ozone co-benefits occur in analysis year, so they are the same for all discount rates. The health co-benefits reflect the sum of the PM2.5 and ozone co-benefits and reflect the range based on adult mortality functions (e.g., from Krewski et al. (2009) with Bell et al. (2004) to Lepeule et al. (2012) with Levy et al. (2005)). It is important to note that the monetized health co-benefits do not include reduced health effects from direct exposure to NO2, SO2, and HAP; ecosystem effects; or visibility impairment. 

Table 30. Combined Climate Benefits and Health Co-Benefits in 2030 (billions of 2011$)*
                               SCC Discount Rate
                             Climate Benefits Only
                   Climate Benefits and Health Co-Benefits 
                 (Discount Rate Applied to Health Co-Benefits)
                                       
                                       
                                      3%
                                      7%
                                     State
                                      292
million metric tonnes CO2
                                       
                                      5%
                                     $5.0
                                                                            $25
                                      to
$52
                                                                            $23
                                      to
$48
                                      3%
                                      $16
                                                                            $36
                                      to
$63
                                                                            $35
                                      to
$59
                                     2.5%
                                      $23
                                                                            $44
                                      to
$70
                                                                            $42
                                      to
$66
                            3% (95[th] percentile)
                                      $50
                                                                            $70
                                      to
$97
                                                                            $68
                                      to
$92
                                   Regional
                                      258
million metric tonnes CO2
                                       
                                      5%
                                     $4.4
                                                                            $22
                                      to
$45
                                                                            $20
                                      to
$41
                                      3%
                                      $14
                                                                            $32
                                      to
$55
                                                                            $30
                                      to
$51
                                     2.5%
                                      $21
                                                                            $38
                                      to
$62
                                                                            $37
                                      to
$58
                            3% (95[th] percentile)
                                      $44
                                                                            $61
                                      to
$85
                                                                            $60
                                      to
$81
*All estimates are rounded to two significant figures. Climate benefits are based on reductions in CO2 emissions. Co-benefits are based on regional benefit-per-ton estimates. Co-benefits for ozone are based on ozone season NOx emissions. Ozone co-benefits occur in analysis year, so they are the same for all discount rates. The health co-benefits reflect the sum of the PM2.5 and ozone co-benefits and reflect the range based on adult mortality functions (e.g., from Krewski et al. (2009) with Bell et al. (2004) to Lepeule et al. (2012) with Levy et al. (2005)). It is important to note that the monetized health co-benefits do not include reduced health effects from direct exposure to NO2, SO2, and HAP; ecosystem effects; or visibility impairment. 

7	Net Benefits
      Tables 31 through 33 summarize the benefits, costs, and net benefits for 2020, 2025, and 2030 for the two illustrative compliance scenarios evaluated for building blocks 1 and 2 only.

Table 31. Summary of Monetized Benefits, Compliance Costs, and Net Benefits in 2020 (billions of 2011$) [a]

                                     State

                               3% Discount Rate
                               7% Discount Rate
Climate Benefits [b] 
   5% discount rate
   3% discount rate
   2.5% discount rate
   95[th] percentile at 3% discount rate
                                       
                                     $3.2
                                      $12
                                      $17
                                      $34
Air pollution health co-benefits [c]
                                  $12 to $29
                                  $11 to $26
Total Compliance Costs [d]
                                     $4.4
Net Benefits [e]
                                  $20 to $36
                                  $18 to $33
Non-Monetized Benefits
Direct exposure to SO2 and NO2
1.1 tons of Hg 
Ecosystem Effects
Visibility impairment

                                   Regional

                               3% Discount Rate
                               7% Discount Rate
Climate Benefits [b]
   5% discount rate
   3% discount rate
   2.5% discount rate
   95[th] percentile at 3% discount rate
                                       
                                     $3.0
                                      $11
                                      $16
                                      $31
Air pollution health co-benefits [c]
                                  $11 to $25
                                  $9.8 to $23
Total Compliance Costs [d]
                                     $3.2
Net Benefits [e]
                                  $18 to $32
                                  $17 to $30
Non-Monetized Benefits
Direct exposure to SO2 and NO2
1.1 tons of Hg 
Ecosystem Effects
Visibility impairment
[a] All estimates are for 2020 and are rounded to two significant figures, so figures may not sum.
[b] The climate benefit estimates in this summary table reflect global impacts from CO2 emission changes and do not account for changes in non-CO2 GHG emissions. Also, different discount rates are applied to SCC than to the other estimates because CO2 emissions are long-lived and subsequent damages occur over many years. The SCC estimates are year-specific and increase over time. 
[c] The air pollution health co-benefits reflect reduced exposure to PM2.5 and ozone associated with emission reductions of directly emitted PM2.5, SO2 and NOX. The range reflects the use of concentration-response functions from different epidemiology studies. The reduction in premature fatalities each year accounts for over 90 percent of total monetized co-benefits from PM2.5 and ozone. These models assume that all fine particles, regardless of their chemical composition, are equally potent in causing premature mortality because the scientific evidence is not yet sufficient to allow differentiation of effect estimates by particle type. 
[d] Total costs are approximated by the illustrative compliance costs estimated using the Integrated Planning Model and a discount rate of approximately 5%. This estimate includes monitoring, recordkeeping, and reporting costs and demand side energy efficiency program and participant costs.
[e] The estimates of net benefits in this summary table are calculated using the global SCC at a 3 percent discount rate (model average). Tables 10-12 in this memo  present  combined climate and health estimates based on additional discount rates.

Table 32. Summary of Monetized Benefits, Compliance Costs, and Net Benefits in 2025 (billions of 2011$) [a]

                                     State

                               3% Discount Rate
                               7% Discount Rate
Climate Benefits [b] 
   5% discount rate
   3% discount rate
   2.5% discount rate
   95[th] percentile at 3% discount rate
                                       
                                     $4.2
                                      $14
                                      $21
                                      $43
Air pollution health co-benefits [c]
                                  $17 to $40
                                  $15 to $36
Total Compliance Costs [d]
                                     $4.6
Net Benefits [e]
                                  $27 to $49
                                  $25 to $46
Non-Monetized Benefits
Direct exposure to SO2 and NO2
1.4 tons of Hg 
Ecosystem Effects
Visibility impairment

                                   Regional

                               3% Discount Rate
                               7% Discount Rate
Climate Benefits [b]
   5% discount rate
   3% discount rate
   2.5% discount rate
   95[th] percentile at 3% discount rate
                                       
                                     $3.9
                                      $13
                                      $19
                                      $39
Air pollution health co-benefits [c]
                                  $14 to $34
                                  $13 to $30
Total Compliance Costs [d]
                                     $3.0
Net Benefits [e]
                                  $24 to $43
                                  $23 to $40
Non-Monetized Benefits
Direct exposure to SO2 and NO2
1.3 tons of Hg 
Ecosystem Effects
Visibility impairment
[a] All estimates are for 2025 and are rounded to two significant figures, so figures may not sum.
[b] The climate benefit estimates in this summary table reflect global impacts from CO2 emission changes and do not account for changes in non-CO2 GHG emissions. Also, different discount rates are applied to SCC than to the other estimates because CO2 emissions are long-lived and subsequent damages occur over many years. The SCC estimates are year-specific and increase over time. 
[c] The air pollution health co-benefits reflect reduced exposure to PM2.5 and ozone associated with emission reductions of directly emitted PM2.5, SO2 and NOX. The range reflects the use of concentration-response functions from different epidemiology studies. The reduction in premature fatalities each year accounts for over 90 percent of total monetized co-benefits from PM2.5 and ozone. These models assume that all fine particles, regardless of their chemical composition, are equally potent in causing premature mortality because the scientific evidence is not yet sufficient to allow differentiation of effect estimates by particle type. 
[d] Total costs are approximated by the illustrative compliance costs estimated using the Integrated Planning Model and a discount rate of approximately 5%. This estimate includes monitoring, recordkeeping, and reporting costs and demand side energy efficiency program and participant costs.
[e] The estimates of net benefits in this summary table are calculated using the global SCC at a 3 percent discount rate (model average). Tables 10-12 in this memo present combined climate and health estimates based on additional discount rates.

Table 33. Summary of Monetized Benefits, Compliance Costs, and Net Benefits in 2030 (billions of 2011$) [a]

                                     State

                               3% Discount Rate
                               7% Discount Rate
Climate Benefits [b] 
   5% discount rate
   3% discount rate
   2.5% discount rate
   95[th] percentile at 3% discount rate
                                       
                                     $5.0
                                      $16
                                      $23
                                      $50
Air pollution health co-benefits [c]
                                  $20 to $47
                                  $18 to $43
Total Compliance Costs [d]
                                     $9.8
Net Benefits [e]
                                  $27 to $53
                                  $25 to $49
Non-Monetized Benefits
Direct exposure to SO2 and NO2
1.5 tons of Hg
Ecosystem Effects
Visibility impairment

                                   Regional

                               3% Discount Rate
                               7% Discount Rate
Climate Benefits [b]
   5% discount rate
   3% discount rate
   2.5% discount rate
   95[th] percentile at 3% discount rate
                                       
                                     $4.4
                                      $14
                                      $21
                                      $44
Air pollution health co-benefits [c]
                                  $18 to $41
                                  $16 to $37
Total Compliance Costs [d]
                                     $6.8
Net Benefits [e]
                                  $25 to $48
                                  $23 to $45
Non-Monetized Benefits
Direct exposure to SO2 and NO2
1.3 tons of Hg 
Ecosystem Effects
Visibility impairment
[a] All estimates are for 2030, and are rounded to two significant figures, so figures may not sum.
[b] The climate benefit estimates in this summary table reflect global impacts from CO2 emission changes and do not account for changes in non-CO2 GHG emissions. Also, different discount rates are applied to SCC than to the other estimates because CO2 emissions are long-lived and subsequent damages occur over many years. The SCC estimates are year-specific and increase over time. 
[c] The air pollution health co-benefits reflect reduced exposure to PM2.5 and ozone associated with emission reductions of directly emitted PM2.5, SO2 and NOX. The range reflects the use of concentration-response functions from different epidemiology studies. The reduction in premature fatalities each year accounts for over 90 percent of total monetized co-benefits from PM2.5 and ozone. These models assume that all fine particles, regardless of their chemical composition, are equally potent in causing premature mortality because the scientific evidence is not yet sufficient to allow differentiation of effect estimates by particle type. 
[d] Total costs are approximated by the illustrative compliance costs estimated using the Integrated Planning and a discount rate of approximately 5%. This estimate includes monitoring, recordkeeping, and reporting costs and demand side energy efficiency program and participant costs.
[e] The estimates of net benefits in this summary table are calculated using the global SCC at a 3 percent discount rate (model average). Tables 10-12 in this memo present combined climate and health estimates based on additional discount rates.

8	Labor
Table 34 presents the labor changes estimated in job-years associated with the illustrative building blocks 1 and 2 analysis.
Table 34. Engineering-Based[a] Changes in Labor Utilization, Building Blocks 1 & 2 (Number of Job-Years of Employment in Year)
Category
                              Regional Compliance
                               State Compliance

                                   2017-2020
                                   2021-2025
                                   2026-2030
                                   2017-2020
                                   2021-2025
                                   2026-2030
                   Construction-related (One-time) Changes*
Heat Rate Improvement: Total
                                                                         37,400
                                                                              0
                                                                              0
                                                                         35,300
                                                                              0
                                                                              0
                                          Boilermakers and General Construction
                                                                         26,000
                                                                              0
                                                                              0
                                                                         24,500
                                                                              0
                                                                              0
                                                     Engineering and Management
                                                                          6,900
                                                                              0
                                                                              0
                                                                          6,500
                                                                              0
                                                                              0
                                                              Equipment-related
                                                                          3,300
                                                                              0
                                                                              0
                                                                          3,200
                                                                              0
                                                                              0
                                                               Material-related
                                                                          1,200
                                                                              0
                                                                              0
                                                                          1,100
                                                                              0
                                                                              0
New Capacity Construction: Total
                                                                          7,700
                                                                          7,300
                                                                          1,600
                                                                         11,000
                                                                          9,400
                                                                          1,000
                                                                     Renewables
                                                                              0
                                                                            500
                                                                          1,600
                                                                           -700
                                                                            500
                                                                          1,600
                                                                   Natural Gas 
                                                                          7,700
                                                                          6,800
                                                                              0
                                                                         11,700
                                                                          8,900
                                                                           -600
                              Recurring Changes**
                                       
                                     2020
                                     2025
                                     2030
                                     2020
                                     2025
                                     2030
Operation and Maintenance: Total
                                                                        -10,970
                                                                         -9,500
                                                                         -8,300
                                                                        -14,100
                                                                        -12,200
                                                                        -10,600
                                                                 Changes in Gas
                                                                          1,330
                                                                          1,500
                                                                          1,100
                                                                          2,200
                                                                          2,400
                                                                          2,100
                                                                   Retired Coal
                                                                        -11,800
                                                                        -10,700
                                                                         -9,200
                                                                        -15,600
                                                                        -14,100
                                                                        -12,300
                                                            Retired Oil and Gas
                                                                           -500
                                                                           -300
                                                                           -200
                                                                           -700
                                                                           -500
                                                                           -400
Fuel Extraction: Total
                                                                         -1,900
                                                                         -1,000
                                                                           -700
                                                                         -1,500
                                                                         -1,000
                                                                           -800
                                                                           Coal
                                                                         -9,700
                                                                        -11,100
                                                                        -12,000
                                                                        -10,500
                                                                        -12,400
                                                                        -13,500
                                                                    Natural Gas
                                                                          7,800
                                                                         10,100
                                                                         11,300
                                                                          9,000
                                                                         11,400
                                                                         12,700
Supply Side Employment Impacts  -  Quantified
                                                                         32,230
                                                                         -3,200
                                                                         -7,400
                                                                         30,700
                                                                         -3,800
                                                                        -10,400
[a] Job-year estimates are derived from IPM investment and O&M cost estimates, as well as IPM fuel use estimates (tons coals or MMBtu gas)
[b]All job-year estimates on this are Full Time Equivalent (FTE) jobs. Job estimates in the Demand-Side energy efficiency section (below) include both full time and part time jobs
*Construction-related job-year changes are one-time impacts, occurring during each year of the 2 to 4 year period during which construction and HRI installation activities occur. Figures in table are average job-years during each of the years in each range. Negative job-year estimates when additional generating capacity must be built in the base case, but is avoided in the Guideline implementation scenarios due to HRI or Demand-side energy efficiency programs. 
**Recurring Changes are job-years associated with annual recurring jobs including operating and maintenance activities and fuel extraction jobs. Newly built generating capacity creates a recurring stream of positive job-years, while retiring generating capacity, as well as avoided new built capacity, create a stream of negative job-years. In addition, there are recurring jobs prior to 2020 to fuel and operate new generating capacity brought online before 2020; the recurring jobs prior to 2020 are not estimated.
9	References
Bell, M.L., et al. 2004. "Ozone and Short-Term Mortality in 95 U.S. Urban Communities, 1987-2000." Journal of the American Medical Association, 292(19): pp. 2372-8. 
Krewski D; M. Jerrett; R.T. Burnett; R. Ma; E. Hughes and Y. Shi, et al. 2009. Extended Follow-Up and Spatial Analysis of the American Cancer Society Study Linking Particulate Air Pollution and Mortality. HEI Research Report, 140, Health Effects Institute, Boston, MA. 
Lepeule, J.; F. Laden; D. Dockery and J. Schwartz. 2012. "Chronic Exposure to Fine Particles and Mortality: An Extended Follow-Up of the Harvard Six Cities Study from 1974 to 2009." Environmental Health Perspectives, July, 120(7): pp. 965-70. 
Levy, J.I.; S.M. Chemerynski and J.A. Sarnat. 2005. "Ozone Exposure and Mortality: An Empiric Bayes Meta-regression Analysis." Epidemiology, 16(4): pp. 458-68.