DOI: 10.5061/dryad.np5hqc043
title: Climate change effects on the only Western Palearctic Plethodontids: Range changes and possible depletion of intraspecific genetic diversity

description: Aim: Amphibians are particularly sensitive to rapid climatic shifts, due
 to their eco-physiology, life history traits, and high frequency of
 narrowly distributed species. The genus Speleomantes encompasses the only
 extant Old-World plethodontids, with three species occurring in peninsular
 Italy and the remaining five endemic to Sardinia Island. Given the
 restricted ranges of Speleomantes species and their vulnerability to
 environmental change, we implemented Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) to
 estimate the likely impacts of various global warming scenarios on the
 extent and geographical location of climatically suitable areas. Time
 period: Current, with ENMs projected to 2030, 2050, and 2070 under
 alternative Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Location: Italian Peninsula and
 Sardinia Island. Major taxa studied: Speleomantes Dubois, 1984 (Caudata:
 Plethodontidae). Methods: Ensembles of ENMs were fitted for each
 Speleomantes species, using the “biomod2” modelling platform in R
 environment. Then, post-modelling analyses were applied in GIS environment
 to highlight: (i) the primary geographic direction of predicted
 suitability shifts for each species; (ii) the proportion of stable, gained
 and lost suitable areas for each genetic lineage of the single species.
 Results: We found a noticeable shrinking of suitable areas for all
 Speleomantes species, being particularly extensive under
 “business-as-usual” scenarios for the Sardinian ones. Moreover, core
 suitable areas were predicted to shift for most species and suitability
 losses emerged to differently affect distinct genetic lineages, posing
 additional challenges for designing effective conservation measures. Main
 conclusions: The predicted shrinkage and shifting of climatically suitable
 areas for most Speleomantes species point to the urgency of evaluating in
 due time alternative conservation strategies for these endemic urodeles,
 to prevent losses of taxonomic and genetic diversity. Our modelling
 framework may be applied to other species with similar traits (e.g., low
 dispersal ability, narrow environmental niche breadth) to predict
 climate-induced range contractions or shifts, using the gained information
 to optimize conservation outcomes.
description: # Climate change effects on the only Western Palearctic Plethodontids:
 Range changes and possible depletion of intraspecific genetic diversity
 [https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.np5hqc043](https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.np5hqc043) ## Description of the data and file structure The provided data set includes occurrence localities of the eight species of *Speleomantes* Dubois, 1984 (Caudata: Plethodontidae), being the target of climate-induced range-shift analyses showcased in the research article entitled "**Climate change effects on the only Western Palearctic Plethodontids: range changes and possible depletion of intraspecific genetic diversity**", accepted for publication in Journal of Biogeography. The occurrence data set was created by integrating data from bibliographical sources, museum records and fieldwork spanning from 1969 to 2017. Occurrence records were validated relying upon the most recent scientific literature about *Speleomantes* (Ficetola et al., 2018). A further validation was performed by comparing the gathered data with the IUCN Red List range maps of the eight target species (IUCN SSC Amphibian Specialist Group, 2022a-h). Since special care should be taken in publishing information about occurrence localities of sensitive species (as *Speleomantes* ones), due to the risk of data exploitation by poachers (Lunghi et al., 2019), the geographic coordinates (WGS 84 – EPSG 4326) of the occurrence records (sheet 1 of the provided .xlsx file) are rounded to 0.01 degree (~ 1.1 km). In sheet 2 of the provided .xlsx file, we also listed the names and meaning of the 19 standard bioclimatic variables considered as candidate predictors to fit Ecological Niche Models on our target species. References Ficetola GF, Lunghi E, Canedoli C, Padoa-Schioppa E, Pennati R, Manenti R (2018) Differences between microhabitat and broad-scale patterns of niche evolution in terrestrial salamanders. *Scientific Reports* 8: 10575. IUCN SSC Amphibian Specialist Group (2022a) *Speleomantes ambrosii*. The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species 2022: e.T20454A89708811. [https://dx.doi.org/10.2305/IUCN.UK.2022-1.RLTS.T20454A89708811.en](https://dx.doi.org/10.2305/IUCN.UK.2022-1.RLTS.T20454A89708811.en). Accessed on 25 Sept 2023. IUCN SSC Amphibian Specialist Group (2022b) *Speleomantes italicus*. The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species 2022: e.T20458A89709054. [https://dx.doi.org/10.2305/IUCN.UK.2022-1.RLTS.T20458A89709054.en](https://dx.doi.org/10.2305/IUCN.UK.2022-1.RLTS.T20458A89709054.en). Accessed on 25 Sept 2023. IUCN SSC Amphibian Specialist Group (2022c) *Speleomantes strinatii*. The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species 2022: e.T59405A89709164. [https://dx.doi.org/10.2305/IUCN.UK.2022-1.RLTS.T59405A89709164.en](https://dx.doi.org/10.2305/IUCN.UK.2022-1.RLTS.T59405A89709164.en). Accessed on 25 Sept 2023. IUCN SSC Amphibian Specialist Group (2022d) *Speleomantes flavus*. The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species 2022: e.T20455A89699228. [https://dx.doi.org/10.2305/IUCN.UK.2022-1.RLTS.T20455A89699228.en](https://dx.doi.org/10.2305/IUCN.UK.2022-1.RLTS.T20455A89699228.en). Accessed on 25 Sept 2023. IUCN SSC Amphibian Specialist Group (2022e) *Speleomantes genei*. The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species 2022: e.T20456A89697852. [https://dx.doi.org/10.2305/IUCN.UK.2022-1.RLTS.T20456A89697852.en](https://dx.doi.org/10.2305/IUCN.UK.2022-1.RLTS.T20456A89697852.en). Accessed on 25 Sept 2023. IUCN SSC Amphibian Specialist Group (2022f) *Speleomantes imperialis*. The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species 2022: e.T20457A89708919. [https://dx.doi.org/10.2305/IUCN.UK.2022-1.RLTS.T20457A89708919.en](https://dx.doi.org/10.2305/IUCN.UK.2022-1.RLTS.T20457A89708919.en). Accessed on 25 Sept 2023. IUCN SSC Amphibian Specialist Group (2022g) *Speleomantes sarrabusensis*. The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species 2022: e.T135825A89699335. [https://dx.doi.org/10.2305/IUCN.UK.2022-1.RLTS.T135825A89699335.en](https://dx.doi.org/10.2305/IUCN.UK.2022-1.RLTS.T135825A89699335.en). Accessed on 25 Sept 2023. IUCN SSC Amphibian Specialist Group (2022h) *Speleomantes supramontis*. The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species 2022: e.T20459A89697409. [https://dx.doi.org/10.2305/IUCN.UK.2022-1.RLTS.T20459A89697409.en](https://dx.doi.org/10.2305/IUCN.UK.2022-1.RLTS.T20459A89697409.en). Accessed on 25 Sept 2023. Lunghi E, Corti C, Manenti R, Ficetola GF (2019) Consider species specialism when publishing datasets. *Nature Ecology & Evolution* 3: 319–319. ### Files and variables #### File: Speleomantes\_JBI\_Table\_S1a\_b\_1stRev.xlsx **Description:**  ##### Variables * Speleomantes species: specific epithet of the eight target *Speleomantes* species. * long: decimal longitude (WGS 84 – EPSG 4326) of the occurrence localities, rounded to 0.01 degree (~ 1.1 km) * lat: decimal latitude (WGS 84 – EPSG 4326) of the occurrence localities, rounded to 0.01 degree (~ 1.1 km) ## Code/software The provided .xlsx file can be accessed through various open acces software permitting to handle and visualize tabular data (e.g., R).