DOI: 10.5061/dryad.hc627cj
title: Data from: Recent adverse mortality trends in Scotland: comparison with other high-income countries.

description: Objective Gains in life expectancy have faltered in several high-income
 countries in recent years. We aim to compare life expectancy trends in
 Scotland to those seen internationally, and to assess the timing of any
 recent changes in mortality trends for Scotland. Setting Austria, Croatia,
 Czech Republic, Denmark, England & Wales, Estonia, France,
 Germany, Hungary, Iceland, Israel, Japan, Korea, Latvia, Lithuania,
 Netherlands, Northern Ireland, Poland, Scotland, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden,
 Switzerland, USA. Methods We used life expectancy data from the Human
 Mortality Database (HMD) to calculate the mean annual life expectancy
 change for 24 high-income countries over five-year periods from 1992 to
 2016, and the change for Scotland for five-year periods from 1857 to 2016.
 One- and two-break segmented regression models were applied to mortality
 data from National Records of Scotland (NRS) to identify turning points in
 age-standardised mortality trends between 1990 and 2018. Results In
 2012-2016 life expectancies in Scotland increased by 2.5 weeks/year for
 females and 4.5 weeks/year for males, the smallest gains of any period
 since the early 1970s. The improvements in life expectancy in 2012-2016
 were smallest among females (&lt;2.0 weeks/year) in Northern Ireland,
 Iceland, England & Wales and the USA and among males (&lt;5.0
 weeks/year) in Iceland, USA, England & Wales and Scotland. Japan,
 Korea, and countries of Eastern Europe have seen substantial gains in the
 same period. The best estimate of when mortality rates changed to a slower
 rate of improvement in Scotland was the year to 2012 Q4 for males and the
 year to 2014 Q2 for females. Conclusion Life expectancy improvement has
 stalled across many, but not all, high income countries. The recent change
 in the mortality trend in Scotland occurred within the period 2012-2014.
 Further research is required to understand these trends, but governments
 must also take timely action on plausible contributors.
description: <strong>HMD international_updated Jan
 2019.xlsx</strong><br> Comprises 20 worksheets, of which 14
 contain data.<br> These data are arranged by country and by
 year.<br> Missing data codes: ""<br> The tab
 'contents and sources' provides descriptions of the data source
 and contents of each sheet.<br>  
 <strong>HMD Scotland time trend
 analysis.xlsx</strong><br> Comprises 5 worksheets, including a
 combination of data and charts.<br> The sheet 'contents'
 describes the data source and contents of other sheets.<br> The
 variables include year, life expectancy, and various measures of change in
 life expectancy<br> Missing data codes: ""<br>
   <strong>Segmented regression
 chart.xlsx</strong><br> Comprises 2 worksheets,
 'Data' and 'Chart'. Variables
 within the 'data' worksheet include:<br> Year<br> 4
 quarter rolling period ending<br> Female observed mortality
 rate<br> Female predicted by one-break model<br> Female
 predicted by two-break model<br> Male observed mortality
 rate<br> Male predicted by one-break model<br> Male predicted
 by two-break model<br> Chart breakpoint indicator<br> Missing
 data codes:  (blank space)<br>  
 <strong>Summary findings from segmented
 regression.xlsx</strong><br> Excel workbook containing table 1
 of paper 'summary of results of segmented regression by population
 group and model/test'
description: Description of methods used for collection/generation of
 data:<br> The HMD has a detailed methods protocol available
 here:<br>
 https://www.mortality.org/Public/Docs/MethodsProtocol.pdf<br> The
 ONS and NRS also have similar methods for ensuring data consistency and
 quality assurance. Methods for processing the
 data:<br> The segmented regression was conducted using the
 'segmented' package in R. The recommended references to this
 package and its approach are here:<br>   Vito M. R. Muggeo (2003).
 Estimating regression models with unknown break-points. Statistics in
 Medicine, 22, 3055-3071.   Vito M. R. Muggeo (2008).
 segmented: an R Package to Fit Regression Models with Broken-Line
 Relationships. R News, 8/1,<br>   20-25. URL
 https://cran.r-project.org/doc/Rnews/.   Vito M. R.
 Muggeo (2016). Testing with a nuisance parameter present only under the
 alternative: a score-based approach with<br>   application to
 segmented modelling. J of Statistical Computation and Simulation, 86,
 3059-3067.   Vito M. R. Muggeo (2017). Interval
 estimation for the breakpoint in segmented regression: a smoothed
 score-based approach.<br>   Australian & New Zealand Journal
 of Statistics, 59, 311-322. Software- or
 Instrument-specific information needed to interpret the data, including
 software and hardware version numbers:<br> The analyses were
 conducted in R version 3.6.1 and Microsoft Excel 2013.
 <strong>Please see README.txt for further
 information</strong>