DOI: 10.5061/dryad.bcc2fqzh3
title: Data from: Refuge-yeah or refuge-nah? Predicting locations of forest resistance and recruitment in a fiery world

description: Climate warming, land use change, and altered fire regimes are driving
 ecological transformations that can have critical effects on Earth’s
 biota. Fire refugia – locations that are disturbed less frequently or
 severely than their surroundings – may act as sites of relative stability
 during this period of rapid change by being resistant to fire and
 supporting post-fire recovery in adjacent areas. Because of their
 potential value to forest ecosystems, there is an urgent need to
 anticipate (1) where refugia are most likely to be found and (2) where
 they align with environmental conditions that support post-fire tree
 recruitment. Using biophysical predictors and patterns of burn severity
 from 1,180 recent fire events, we mapped the locations of potential fire
 refugia across upland conifer forests in the southwestern United States
 (US) (99,428 km2 of forest area), a region that is highly vulnerable to
 fire-driven transformation. We found that low pre-fire forest cover, flat
 slopes or topographic concavities, moderate weather conditions,
 spring-season burning, and areas affected by low- to moderate-severity
 fire within the previous 15 years were commonly associated with refugia.
 Based on current (i.e., 2021) conditions, we predicted that 67.6% and
 18.1% of conifer forests in our study area would contain refugia under
 moderate and extreme fire weather, respectively. However, refugia were
 36.4% (moderate weather) and 31.2% (extreme weather) more common across
 forests that experienced recent fires, as compared to recently unburned
 areas, supporting increased fire use during moderate weather and shoulder
 seasons to promote fire-resistant landscapes. When overlaid with models of
 tree recruitment, 23.2% (moderate weather) and 6.4% (extreme weather) of
 forests were classified as refugia with a high potential to support
 post-fire recruitment in the surrounding landscape. These locations may be
 disproportionately valuable for ecosystem sustainability, providing
 habitat for fire-sensitive species and maintaining forest persistence in
 an increasingly fire-prone world.
description: This archive includes statistical models and spatial data used to
 predict the locations of forested fire refugia and post-fire tree
 recruitment potential throughout four ecoregions (EPA Level III Ecoregions
 #19, 21, 23, and 79) in Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, New Mexico, Utah, and
 Wyoming, USA. See "README.md" for information
 about datasets and their collection.
description: We place no restrictions on the use of the newly developed data
 or code included in this archive. Open-source R and R Studio software are
 necessary to reproduce our analyses. Several of the
 datasets included in this archive were derived from external sources
 (e.g., USGS 3DEP topographic data, GridMET climate data, Landsat imagery,
 MODIS/VIIRS thermal anomalies, Rangeland Analysis Platform vegetation
 cover, LANDFIRE vegetation type, MTBS/NIFC fire perimeters, EPA
 ecoregions, and USFS species basal area maps). For reproducibility, some
 of these datasets are redistributed in this archive. The authors confirm
 that these data are dedicated to the public domain, without restrictions
 on use.