DOI: 10.18738/t8/dqwe9f
title: Extending and improving Texas bay/estuary oil spill simulations

description: The Hydrodynamic Oil Spill--Python (HyosPy) system is an integrated modeling system that combines the latest weather forecast with multiple hydrodynamic models and oil spill models that, in a conventional operating mode, can be used to provide predictions of oil spill particle tracks. A major new capability of HyosPy is the creation of oil spill probability maps based on its multi-model system, which is similar to the approach taken in hurricane path prediction. HyosPy works as a model control, analysis, and visualization system using SUNTANS, SELFE, ROMS, GNOME, and TracPy models. The modeling system is driven by real-time forecast data that is downloaded from web services. HyosPy is an adaptable framework that can be readily extended to include other models (e.g., the NOAA operational coastal models using FVCOM).
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Research and development the HyosPy system was initially funded by TGLO beginning in 2009. Presently, the system has been tested and validated for Galveston Bay and is ready to be made operational as part of the TGLO oil spill response system. The additional work needed to move this work from R\&D to operation is outlined in sections 14.2 and 14.3. As a practical matter, HyosPy should be made operational on a supercomputer system with visualization and control software that can be accessed over the internet using either desktop or mobile devices.
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The state-of-the-art in oil spill modeling remains fraught with uncertainties and approximations. For example, we discovered that behavior of eddies near the mouth of an entrance channel can have a significant impact on whether or not oil exits or enters a bay. These eddies are poorly represented in operational models. Understanding the mechanics of such effects and representing them correctly in oil spill models requires coordination of field studies, laboratory experiments, and numerical models, e.g., as in
Chapters 11 and 12, herein. As new mechanics are discovered and models are refined, the HyosPy system provides a framework for introducing the latest science into oil spill predictions and evaluating the effects on model uncertainty.
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This report provides an in-depth look at the state-of-the-art research undertaken in building the HyosPy system and the associated science advances. An overview of this report is provide in Chapter 1. Chapters 2 -- 4 provide the status of extending the existing approach for Galveston Bay to other bay systems along the Texas coast. Chapters 5 -- 7 provide analyses of the connectivity between bays and the Texas coastline, as well as insight into both Deepwater Horizon and Hurricane Harvey events. Chapter 8 -- 13 discuss the major scientific advances made in this project. Chapter 14 provides a discussion of how future research and development efforts can build on our work.
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This report represents the culmination of a decade of work in developing an advanced oils spill simulation system for Texas bays and estuaries 
and is the final deliverable under TGLO contract no. 18-133-000-A674.