DOI: 10.3886/icpsr09988.v1
title: Techniques for Assessing the Accuracy of Recidivism Prediction Scales, 1960-1980: [Miami, Albuquerque, New York City, Alameda and Los Angeles Counties, and the State of California]
title: Version 1

description: The purpose of this data collection was to measure the
 validity or accuracy of four recidivism prediction instruments: the
 INSLAW, RAND, SFS81, and CGR scales. These scales estimate the
 probability that criminals will commit subsequent crimes quickly, that
 individuals will commit crime frequently, that inmates who are
 eligible for release on parole will commit subsequent crimes, and that
 defendants awaiting trial will commit crimes while on pretrial arrest
 or detention. The investigators used longitudinal data from five
 existing independent studies to assess the validity of the four
 predictive measures in question. The first data file was originally
 collected by the Vera Institute of Justice in New York City and was
 derived from an experimental evaluation of a jobs training program
 called the Alternative Youth Employment Strategies Project implemented
 in Albuquerque, New Mexico, Miami, Florida, and New York City, New
 York. The second file contains data from a RAND Corporation study,
 EFFECTS OF PRISON VERSUS PROBATION IN CALIFORNIA, 1980-1982 (ICPSR
 8700), from offenders in Alameda and Los Angeles counties,
 California. Parts 3 through 5 pertain to serious juvenile offenders
 who were incarcerated during the 1960s and 1970s in three institutions
 of the California Youth Authority. A portion of the original data for
 these parts was taken from EARLY IDENTIFICATION OF THE CHRONIC
 OFFENDER, [1978-1980: CALIFORNIA] (ICPSR 8226). All files present
 demographic and socioeconomic variables such as birth information,
 race and ethnicity, education background, work and military
 experience, and criminal history, including involvement in criminal
 activities, drug addiction, and incarceration episodes. From the
 variables in each data file, standard variables across all data files
 were constructed. Constructed variables included those on background
 (such as drug use, arrest, conviction, employment, and education
 history), which were used to construct the four predictive scales, and
 follow-up variables concerning arrest and incarceration
history. Scores on the four predictive scales were estimated.
description: For Part 1, the investigators selected individuals from
 the Department of Labor job training program identified as "high risk
 youths," aged 16 to 21, in Albuquerque, Miami, and New York City, who
 had arrests prior to their participation in the jobs training program.
 The arrest preceding participation in the jobs training program was
 marked as the target event for the application of the prediction
 scales. For Part 2, the sample consisted of matched samples of
 convicted felons who were sentenced either to prison or felony
 probation in Alameda and Los Angeles counties. The arrest associated
 with a 1980 conviction was used as the target for applying the
 prediction scales. The California Youth Authority samples, Parts 3-5,
 were male juveniles from an earlier study who were subsequently
 arrested after their 18th birthdays. The first arrest as an adult was
the target event for the prediction scales.
description: Datasets: 
DS0: Study-Level Files
DS1: Job Training Evaluation Data
DS2: Prison and Probation Data
DS3: Fricot Ranch Youth Data
DS4: Preston School of Industry Youth Data
DS5: Youth Center Research Project Data
description: Part 1: All youths in the Department of Labor job training
 programs in Albuquerque, Miami, and New York City. Part 2: All
 convicted felons in Alameda and Los Angeles counties. Parts 3-5: All
 young males arrested in the State of California who had spent time as
juveniles in one of the three California Youth Authority facilities.
description: (1) ICPSR assigned values labeled as "missing" or
 "missing/NA" as designated missing values in the data definition
 statements for each part. For Part 2, values labeled as "unknown"
 were designated as missing values for cards 19-22. These declared
 missing values may be different than the missing values used by
 Sociometrics, Inc. to produce the tables in the user guide. The
 variable count provided by ICPSR for each part is the total number of
 variables as defined in the data definition statements and not a count
 of analyzable variables only. (2) The codebook and user guide are
 provided as a Portable Document Format file. The PDF file format was
 developed by Adobe Systems Incorporated and can be accessed using PDF
 reader software, such as the Adobe Acrobat Reader. Information on how
 to obtain a copy of the Acrobat Reader is provided through the ICPSR
Website on the Internet.