DOI: 10.3886/icpsr38226.v1
title: Innovative Methodologies for Assessing Radicalization Risk: Risk Terrain Modeling and Conjunctive Analysis, United States, 2001-2019
title: Version 1

description: This study examined the geospatial contexts of where terrorism incidents occur, where terrorists plan and prepare for their crimes, and where terrorists reside in the United States. The researchers examined data linked to terrorism-related incidents in the United States from the time of the 9/11 terror attacks in 2001 through 2019. Using these data, the researchers applied innovative analytical methodologies of Risk Terrain Modeling (RTM) and Conjunctive Analysis of Case Configurations (CACC) to evaluate their utility in assessing risk of terrorism. Risk terrain modeling is a method for identifying situational, place-based risk factors most associated with locations where terrorist incidents are likely to be planned or occur. This method looks at specific aspects of the physical landscape, such as locations of buildings or parking lots. The place-based analysis approach to terrorism investigation represents a shift from the conventional research emphasis on targeting suspicious persons by their demographic or other traits. This approach investigates the importance of location in explanations of crime and terrorism. According to the American Terrorism Study, during this time between 2001 (after 9/11 and 2019) there were 296 terrorism incidents and 617 pre-incident activities occurred where the state was known. In addition, there were 420 known residences tied to terrorism-related incidents in particular states.
description: There are two major objectives for this research study. Identify demographic and social characteristics of communities (i.e., counties and census tracts) that, when considered in combination, form dominant profiles for communities at most risk for experiencing terrorists' pre-incident and incident activities. Identify situational, place-based risk factors most associated with places where terrorists' pre-incident and incident activities are most likely to occur. The project was guided by six research questions: How are terrorists' pre-incident (residence and preparatory locations) and incident activities (successful attacks/crimes and unsuccessful plots) spatially distributed across the U.S.? What are the most prominent combinations of community characteristics in places where terrorists' pre-incident and incident activities are most likely to occur? How do these pre-incident and incident characteristics differ? What are the similarities and differences in prominent case configurations across different levels of aggregation (i.e., county and census tract)? What is the distribution of risk across micro-level places? What built, physical infrastructure characteristics contribute to the risk associated with pre-incident and incident activities? What prominent case configurations (or patterns) emerge when accounting for microlevel places nested within communities?
description: To be included in the final datasets an incident, preparatory act, or residence had to be coded to the city level. Only terrorism events occurring after September 11, 2001 through the end of 2019 are included.
description: Key factors or measures for this study, present in each dataset, include the political ideological category connected to the incident, type of most destructive weapon used or intended to use during the attack, the group structure of the perpetrator(s), who or what the intended target was, and whether or not the attack was successful. <strong>DS1: </strong>There are 296 incidents which were the target locations of planned and executed attacks. (109 variables) <strong>DS2: </strong>There are 617 preparatory acts for the location of events involved in the planning process (e.g. store where weapons were purchased). (110 variables) <strong>DS3: </strong>There are 420 residences that show the perpetrator's last known place of residence while preparing for the attack. (111 variables) About 87% of the variables in each dataset are present and equivalent to variables in the other two datasets. The overlap primarily covers geography (census tract, county, and state), census tract / county characteristics (categorized into percentiles) and a count of 67 various types of businesses, organizations, entities, and locations (elements of the environment).
description: Not applicable.
description: Response Rates: Not applicable.
description: Datasets: DS0: Study-Level Files DS1: Incidents Data DS2: Preparatory Acts Data DS3: Residences Data
description: Terrorism incidents in the United States between the years 2001 (after 9/11) and 2019. Smallest Geographic Unit: Census Tract
description: record abstracts