DOI: 10.5285/e79aab21bf644e61bf5dacd02199daa3
title: Chapter 10 of the Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report - data for Figure 10.19 (v20220622)

description: Data for Figure 10.19 from Chapter 10 of the Working Group I (WGI) Contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). Figure 10.19 shows changes in the Indian summer monsoon in the historical and future periods. --------------------------------------------------- How to cite this dataset --------------------------------------------------- When citing this dataset, please include both the data citation below (under 'Citable as') and the following citation for the report component from which the figure originates: Doblas-Reyes, F.J., A.A. Sörensson, M. Almazroui, A. Dosio, W.J. Gutowski, R. Haarsma, R. Hamdi, B. Hewitson, W.-T. Kwon, B.L. Lamptey, D. Maraun, T.S. Stephenson, I. Takayabu, L. Terray, A. Turner, and Z. Zuo, 2021: Linking Global to Regional Climate Change. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1363–1512, doi:10.1017/9781009157896.012. --------------------------------------------------- Figure subpanels --------------------------------------------------- The figure has 6 subpanels. Data for all subpanels is provided. --------------------------------------------------- List of data provided --------------------------------------------------- The dataset contains: APHRODITE station density for June-September (JJAS) 1956 Precipitation June-September (JJAS): - Model mean bias 1985-2010 - Observed and modelled trends: CRU TS 1950-2000, CMIP6 hist-GHG & hist-aer 1950-2000, and CMIP6 SSP5-8.5 2015-2100 trends - Observed and model relative anomalies over 1950-2100 with respect to 1995-2014 averages over central India (lon: 76°E-87°E, lat: 20°N-28°N) - Modelled change until 2081‒2100 with respect to 1995-2014 averages over central India (lon: 76°E-87°E, lat: 20°N-28°N) - Trends in relative precipitation anomalies (baseline 1995-2014) over past (1950-2000) and future (2015-2100) period over central India (lon: 76°E-87°E, lat: 20°N-28°N). - Trend difference between the 3 MPI-ESM runs with the lowest and the 3 MPI-ESM runs with the highest trend --------------------------------------------------- Data provided in relation to figure --------------------------------------------------- Panel (a): APHRODITE station density for JJAS 1956: - Data file: Fig_10_19_panel-a_mapplot_APHRODITE_stationdensity_single_mean.nc Panel (b): CMIP6 mean precipitation bias June-September mean 1985-2010 mean with respect to CRU TS: - Data file: Fig_10_19_panel-b_mapplot_pr_cmip6_bias_pr_cmip6_maps_past_bias_MultiModelMean_bias.nc Panel (c): OLS linear precipitation for June-September mean trend of CRU TS 1950-2000 (top left), CMIP6 hist-GHG (bottom left) & hist-aer (bottom right) 1950-2000, and CMIP6 SSP5-8.5 2015-2100 (top right): - Data files: Fig_10_19_panel-c_mapplot_pr_cmip6_mean_trend_future_pr_cmip6_maps_trend_future_MultiModelMean_trend.nc, Fig_10_19_panel-c_mapplot_pr_histaer_mean_trend_past_pr_aer_maps_trend_past_MultiModelMean_trend.nc, Fig_10_19_panel-c_mapplot_pr_histghg_mean_trend_past_pr_ghg_maps_trend_past_MultiModelMean_trend.nc, Fig_10_19_panel-c_mapplot_pr_obs_mean_trend_past_CRU_single_trend.nc; Panel (d): Observed and model relative precipitation June-September mean anomalies over 1950-2100 in respect to 1995-2014 averages over central India (lon: 76°E-87°E, lat: 20°N-28°N) (CRU TS (brown), GPCC (dark blue), REGEN (green), APHRO-MA (light brown), IITM all-India rainfall (light blue), CMIP6 hist all-forcings sample corresponding to DAMIP experiments (pink), CMIP6 hist-aer (grey), hist-GHG (light blue) CMIP6 historical/SSP5-8.5 (dark red) and CMIP5 historical/RCP8.5 (dark blue) and Modelled change until 2081‒2100 in respect to 1995-2014 averages over central India (CMIP6 SSP5-8.5 (dark red) and CMIP5 historical/RCP8.5 (dark blue)): - Data files: Fig_10_19_panel-d_timeseries.csv, Fig_10_19_panel-d_boxplot.csv Panel (e): OLS linear trends in relative precipitation June-September mean anomalies (baseline 1995-2014) over past (1950-2000) and future (2015-2100) period over central India (lon: 76°E-87°E, lat: 20°N-28°N) of observations (GPCC, CRU TS, REGEN and APRHO-MA: black crosses) and models (individual members of CMIP5 historical-RCP8.5 (blue), CMIP6 historical-SSP5-8.5 (dark red), CMIP6 hist all-forcings sample corresponding to DAMIP experiments (pink circles), CMIP6 hist-GHG (blue triangles), CMIP6 hist-aer (grey triangles)), and box-and-whisker plots for the SMILEs: MIROC6, CSIRO-Mk3-6-0, MPI-ESM, d4PDF (grey shading): - Data file: Fig_10_19_panel-e_trends.csv Panel (f): June-September mean 2016-2045 OLS linear trend difference in precipitation between the 3 MPI-ESM runs with the lowest and the 3 MPI-ESM runs with the highest trend: - Data file: Fig_10_19_panel-f_mapplot_pr_mpige_mean_trend_future_spread_single_trend-difference-min3-max3.nc Acronyms: CMIP - Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, APHRODITE - ASIAN PRECIPITATION - HIGHLY-RESOLVED OBSERVATIONAL DATA INTEGRATION TOWARDS EVALUATION OF WATER RESOURCES, CRU TS- Climatic Research Unit Time Series, GHG - Greenhouse gas, IITM - Indian Institute of Technology Madras, RCP - Representative Concentration Pathway, DAIMP - Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project, SSP - Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, GPCC - GLOBAL PRECIPITATION CLIMATOLOGY CENTRE, REGEN - Rainfall Estimates on a Gridded Network, S MILEs -single model initial-condition large ensembles, d4PDF - Database for Policy Decision-Making for Future Climate Change, MIROC - Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate, MPI - Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, ESM - Earth System Model, Cordex – Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment, OLS - ordinary least squares regression. --------------------------------------------------- Notes on reproducing the figure from the provided data --------------------------------------------------- The code for ESMValTool is provided. --------------------------------------------------- Sources of additional information --------------------------------------------------- The following weblinks are provided in the Related Documents section of this catalogue record: - Link to the figure on the IPCC AR6 website - Link to the report component containing the figure (Chapter 10) - Link to the Supplementary Material for Chapter 10, which contains details on the input data used in Table 10.SM.11 - Link to the code for the figure, archived on Zenodo.