DOI: 10.5061/dryad.dv41ns1xr
title: Ivermectin for COVID-19 in Peru: 14-fold reduction in nationwide excess deaths, p&lt;0.002 for effect by state, then 13-fold increase after ivermectin use restricted

description: Objective. We aimed to identify mortality trends associated with COVID-19
 deaths in Peru during April through November 2020, when mass treatments
 with ivermectin (IVM), a drug of Nobel Prize-honored distinction, were
 autonomously deployed at different times and to different extents in
 Peru’s 25 states under a national policy that authorized these treatments.
 Design. Ecological study of publicly available data. Excess deaths were
 analyzed state by state. To identify potential confounding factors, Google
 mobility data, population densities, SARS-CoV-2 genetic variations,
 seropositivity rates and other auxiliary data were also examined. Primary
 outcome. Reductions in excess deaths, state by state, as compared with
 extent and time period of IVM treatments. Participants. The study
 population was restricted to ages ≥ 60 to eliminate confounding effects of
 changing age distributions of COVID-19 incidence. Results. The 25 states
 of Peru were grouped by extent of IVM distributions: maximal (mass IVM
 distributions through operation MOT, a broadside effort led by the army);
 medium (locally managed IVM distributions); and minimal (restrictive
 policies in one state, Lima). The mean reduction in excess deaths 30 days
 after peak deaths was 74% for the maximal IVM distribution group, 53% for
 the medium group and 25% for Lima. Reduction of excess deaths correlated
 with extent of IVM distribution by state with p&lt;0.002 using the
 Kendall τbtest. Nationwide, excess deaths decreased 14-fold over four
 months through December 1, 2020, after which deaths then increased 13-fold
 when IVM use was restricted under a new president. Conclusion. Mass
 treatments with IVM, a drug safely used in 3.7 billion doses worldwide
 since 1987, most likely caused these reductions in deaths during the time
 periods in which it was deployed. The indicated biological mechanism of
 IVM, competitive binding with SARS-CoV-2 spike protein, is likely
 non-epitope specific, possibly yielding full efficacy against emerging
 viral mutant strains.
description: These are two frozen database captures from: the National Death
 Information System (SINADEF): Ministerio de Salud de Peru. Available from:
 cloud.minsa.gob.pe/s/NctBnHXDnocgWAg/download, as downloaded on 12/13/2020
 and 2/14/2021. Each dataset is a csv file containing about 590,000
 records. A database map is also provided that documents the fields used in
 the analysis of the associated paper, and a brief description of all other
 fields (none contain PII).
description: Please see the dataset documentation files "Readme..."
 and "Links to the key Peruvian national databases used, with a
 database map, for Ivermectin for COVID-19 in Peru.PDF." This
 documents the sources and the data structure of this file as used in the
 analysis of the associated paper ("Ivermectin for COVID-19 in Peru:
 14-fold reduction in nationwide excess deaths, p&lt;0.002 for effect
 by state, then 13-fold increase after ivermectin use
 restricted")