DOI: 10.5061/dryad.m0603gk
title: Data from: Temperature explains broad patterns of Ross River virus transmission

description: Thermal biology predicts that vector-borne disease transmission peaks at
 intermediate temperatures and declines at high and low temperatures.
 However, thermal optima and limits remain unknown for most vector-borne
 pathogens. We built a mechanistic model for the thermal response of Ross
 River virus, an important mosquito-borne pathogen in Australia, Pacific
 Islands, and potentially at risk of emerging worldwide. Transmission peaks
 at moderate temperatures (26.4{degree sign}C) and declines to zero at
 thermal limits (17.0{degree sign}C and 31.5{degree sign}C). The model
 accurately predicts that transmission is year-round endemic in the tropics
 but seasonal in temperate areas, resulting in the nationwide seasonal peak
 in human cases. Climate warming will likely increase transmission in
 temperate areas (where most Australians live) but decrease transmission in
 tropical areas where mean temperatures are already near the thermal
 optimum. These results illustrate the importance of nonlinear models for
 inferring the role of temperature in disease dynamics and predicting
 responses to climate change.
description: Trait data from focal
 mosquito and virus speciesMosquito (Culex
 annulirostris, Aedes vigilax, Aedes camptorhynchus, Aedes notoscriptus)
 and virus (Ross River virus and Murray Valley Encephalitis virus) trait
 data extracted from published articles.RRVTraitData.csvTrait data used to construct priorsTrait data from other mosquito mosquito species used to construct data-informed priors for Bayesian inferenceRRVPriorData.csvTransformed Survival Data from McDonald 1980Survival data from McDonald 1980 transformed for fittingMcDonaldSurvivalDataExpanded_forJAGS.csvTransformed Fecundity Data from McDonald 1980Fecundity Data from McDonald 1980 transformed for fittingMcDonaldEFDDataExpanded_forJAGS.csvAustralian City 2016 Population Sizes and Lat/LongPopulation sizes from 2016 and lat/long coordinates for Australian cities used in the R0 analysisCitiesForWorldClim.csvMonthly Average National RRV CasesMonthly average RRV cases across Australia (1992-2013)MonthlyAvgRRVCases.csvModel output: R0 Quantiles2.5%, 50%, and 97.5% quantiles of R0 Model output (data-informed priors, full R0 model)R0Quantiles.csvMonthly mean temperatures for Australian citiesMonthly mean temperatures for Australian citiesRRVCitiesmean_Transposed_Rounded.csvDigitized Data from McDonald 1980Worksheet showing how data from McDonald 1980 was transformed for fittingMcDonald1980DigitizedData.xlsxTraitFits_PriorFits_FinalTrait fits for data-informed priorsTraitFits_UniformPriors_FinalTraits fits for focal mosquito and virus species (Culex annulirostris, Aedes vigilax, Ross River virus) with uniform priorsTraitFits_DataInformedPriors_FinalTrait fits for focal species (Culex annulirostris, Aedes vigilax, Ross River virus) with data-informed priorsTrait Fits for Alternative SpeciesTrait fits (uniform and data-informed priors) for alternative species (Aedes camptorhynchus, Aedes notoscriptus, Murray Valley Encephalitis virus)TraitFits_OtherSpecies_Final.RSensitivity AnalysisSensitivity analysis of R0 modelSensitivityAnalysis_Final.RR0 Model CalculationR0 model calculation for focal speciesR0Calculation_Final.RR0 Calculation Alternative HostsR0 calculations for alternative hostsR0Calculation_AppendixCalcs_Final.RPredicted Seasonality of R0Analyses of predicted R0 seasonality for different cities and weighted by population size for comparison with national average RRV casesR0_Seasonality_Final.RRRV_cities_WorldClimCurrent_FinalGeographical analysis for Australian citiesRRV_models_climate_map3Climate models for geographical analyses for RRV across AustraliaList of which files go with which figuresList of which data and code files go with which figures