DOI: 10.5061/dryad.bvq83bk72
title: A resurrection study reveals limited evolution of phenology in response to recent climate change across the geographic range of the scarlet monkeyflower

description: Premise of the study: As global climate change alters drought regimes,
 rapid evolution of traits that facilitate adaptation to drought can rescue
 populations in decline. The evolution of phenological advancement can
 allow plants to escape drought, but evolutionary responses in phenology
 can vary across a species’ range due to differences in drought intensity
 and standing genetic variation. Methods: Mimulus cardinalis, a perennial
 herb spanning a broad climatic gradient, recently experienced a period of
 record drought. Here, we used a resurrection study comparing flowering
 time and stem height at first flower of pre-drought ancestors and
 post-drought descendants from northern-edge, central, and southern-edge
 populations in a common environment to examine the evolution of drought
 escape traits across the latitudinal range. Key results: Contrary to the
 hypothesis of the evolution of advanced phenology in response to recent
 drought, flowering time did not advance between ancestors and descendants
 in any population, though storage condition and maternal effects could
 have impacted these results. Stem height was positively correlated with
 flowering time, such that plants that flowered earlier were shorter at
 first flower. This correlation could constrain the evolution of earlier
 flowering time if selection favors flowering early at a large size.
 Conclusions: These findings suggest that rapid evolution of phenology will
 not rescue these populations from recent climate change. Future work is
 needed to examine the potential for the evolution of alternative drought
 strategies and phenotypic plasticity to buffer M. cardinalis populations
 from changing climate.
description: <b id="docs-internal-guid-0b1a131a-7fff-00e5-ea6e-d3065a5d5c0f">Steps</b> Download entire project folder to desired location Open cardinalis_phenology_Ecol_and_Evol.Rproj file in R Studio Install associated R packages Create a new subfolder entitled "Figures" <b id="docs-internal-guid-0b1a131a-7fff-00e5-ea6e-d3065a5d5c0f">Directory descriptions</b> Data: raw data and README files containing metadata Rscripts: script files to reproduce analyses in manuscript, numbered sequentially <b id="docs-internal-guid-0b1a131a-7fff-00e5-ea6e-d3065a5d5c0f"><em>Mimulus cardinalis</em> data from resurrection study of phenology</b> This data file includes germination time, flowering time, and stem height at first flower for each Mimulus cardinalis individual in the experiment, along with seed mass for a subset of maternal families. cardinalis_resurrection_phenology_data.csv <b id="docs-internal-guid-0b1a131a-7fff-00e5-ea6e-d3065a5d5c0f">Annual climate data for each study population from 1901-2017</b> Annual climate data for each Mimulus cardinalis study population from 1901-2017. Data were obtained from ClimateWNA version 5.51 (Wang T, Hamann A, Spittlehouse DL, Carroll C; 2016; "Locally downscaled and spatially customizable climate data for historical and future periods for North America," PLOS ONE 11: e0156720. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0156720).  Population_localities_1901-2017YT.csv <b id="docs-internal-guid-0b1a131a-7fff-00e5-ea6e-d3065a5d5c0f">Additional comma-delimited files in “Data” folder</b> Do not comprise main dataset from experiment but are used to summarize data.  Germination_toothpick_codes.csv Trays_May2018.csv