DOI: 10.5063/aa/dpennington.71.2
title: IPCC Climate Change Data: CSIRO A1a Model: 2050 Radiance

description: From the IPCC website: The A1 Family storyline is a case of rapid and successful economic development, in which regional averages of income per capita converge - current distinctions between poor and rich countries eventually dissolve. In this scenario family, demographic and economic trends are closely linked, as affluence is correlated with long life and small families (low mortality and low fertility). Global population grows to some nine billion by 2050 and declines to about seven billion by 2100. Average age increases, with the needs of retired people met mainly through their accumulated savings in private pension systems. The global economy expands at an average annual rate of about three percent to 2100. This is approximately the same as average global growth since 1850, although the conditions that lead to a global economic in productivity and per capita incomes are unparalleled in history. Income per capita reaches about US$21,000 by 2050. While the high average level of income per capita contributes to a great improvement in the overall health and social conditions of the majority of people, this world is not without its problems. In particular, many communities could face some of the problems of social exclusion encountered by the wealthiest countries in the 20th century and in many places income growth could come with increased pressure on the global commons. Energy and mineral resources are abundant in this scenario family because of rapid technical progress, which both reduce the resources need to produce a given level of output and increases the economically recoverable reserves. Final energy intensity (energy use per unit of GDP) decreases at an average annual rate of 1.3 percent. With the rapid increase in income, dietary patterns shift initially significantly towards increased consumption of meat and dairy products, but may decrease subsequently with increasing emphasis on health of an aging society. High incomes also translate into high car ownership, sprawling suburbanization and dense transport networks, nationally and internationally. Land prices increase faster than income per capita. These factors along with high wages result in a considerable intensification of agriculture. Three scenario groups are considered in A1 scenario family reflecting the uncertainty in development of energy sources and conversion technologies in this rapidly changing world. Near-term investment decisions may introduce long-term irreversibilities into the market, with lock-in to one technological configuration or another. The A1B scenario group is based on a balanced mix of energy sources and has an intermediate level of CO2 emissions, but depending on the energy sources developed, emissions in the variants cover a very wide range. In the fossil-fuel intensive scenario group A1FI, emissions approach those of the A2 scenarios; conversely in scenario group A1T with low labor productivity or of rapid progress in "post-fossil" energy technologies, emissions are intermediate between those of B1 and B2. These scenario variants have been introduced into the A1 storyline because of its "high growth with high tech" nature, where differences in alternative technology developments translate into large differences in future GHG emission levels Ecological resilience is assumed to be high in this storyline. Environmental amenities are viewed in a utilitarian way, based on their influence on the formal economy. The concept of environmental quality might change in this storyline from "conservation" of nature to active "management" - and marketing - of natural and environmental services. Data are available for the following periods: 1961-1990, 2010-2039; 2040-2069; and 2090-2099 Mean monthly and change fields.