DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.11130962
title: Offshore wind turbine damage probability maps for U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coasts exposed to historical and future tropical cyclones

description: Damage probability maps for offshore wind turbines exposed to tropical cyclones (TCs) under both historical and future climate scenarios along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coasts are presented in this dataset. TCs are generated using The Risk Analysis Framework for Tropical Cyclones (RAFT), forced by CMIP6 historical and future global climate simulations. Maximum wind speeds for 20- and 50-year TCs are processed through a fragility function specific to offshore wind (OSW) turbines in order to estimate the probability of damage – specifically yielding and buckling – based on wind speed intensity. 

Included data:



Damage states: Yielding and Buckling probability maps for OSW turbines

Geographic coverage: U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coasts (up to 200km from the shoreline)

Time periods: Historic (1980-2014) and Future (2066-2100)


Methodology:



Tropical cyclone simulation: The RAFT TC model is used to simulate storms for historical and future climates using CMIP6 environmental conditions.

TC impact metric: Wind speeds associated with 20- and 50-year return period TCs are used to estimate the aerodynamic and sea wave loading on OSW turbines.

Fragility functions: Wind speeds are input into a fragility function developed for OSW turbines, estimating the probability of yielding and buckling damage.

Damage probability maps: The resulting output consists of eight (8) damage probability maps representing the likelihoods of yielding and buckling to OSW turbines from 20- and 50-year TCs under historical and future climatic conditions.


Potential Uses:



Assessing the spatial vulnerability of OSW infrastructure to TCs

Supporting decision-making for the design and siting of turbines

Evaluating the impact of climate change on the risk of damage to OSW infrastructure


For further insights into this dataset, users are encouraged to refer to the associated paper. This dataset offers valuable insights into the potential impact of TCs on offshore wind infrastructure, aiding in risk assessment and resilience planning for the renewable energy sector.

 
description: This research was supported by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Science Biological and Environmental Research as part of the collaborative, multiprogram Integrated Coastal Modeling (ICoM) project. This work was also funded by the U.S. DOE, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, and Wind Energy Technologies Office (WETO). The research used computational resources from the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC), a U.S. DOE User Facility supported by the Office of Science under contract DE-AC02-05CH11231. For CMIP5 and CMIP6, the U.S. DOE’s Program for Climate Model Diagnostics and Intercomparison provides coordinating support and leads the development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Program’s Working Group on Coupled Modeling, which is responsible for CMIP5 and CMIP6, and thank the climate modeling groups for producing and making available the model output. The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory is operated for DOE by Battelle Memorial Institute under contract DE-AC05-76RL01830.