DOI: 10.5061/dryad.gf067
title: Data from: Plasticity predicts evolution in a marine alga

description: Under global change, populations have four possible responses: ‘migrate,
 acclimate, adapt or die’ (Gienapp et al. 2008 Climate change and
 evolution: disentangling environmental and genetic response. Mol. Ecol.
 17, 167–178. (doi:10.1111/j.1365-294X.2007.03413.x)). The challenge is to
 predict how much migration, acclimatization or adaptation populations are
 capable of. We have previously shown that populations from more variable
 environments are more plastic (Schaum et al. 2013 Variation in plastic
 responses of a globally distributed picoplankton species to ocean
 acidification. Nature 3, 298–230. (doi:10.1038/nclimate1774)), and here we
 use experimental evolution with a marine microbe to learn that plastic
 responses predict the extent of adaptation in the face of elevated partial
 pressure of CO2 (pCO2). Specifically, plastic populations evolve more, and
 plastic responses in traits other than growth can predict changes in
 growth in a marine microbe. The relationship between plasticity and
 evolution is strongest when populations evolve in fluctuating
 environments, which favour the evolution and maintenance of plasticity.
 Strikingly, plasticity predicts the extent, but not direction of
 phenotypic evolution. The plastic response to elevated pCO2 in green algae
 is to increase cell division rates, but the evolutionary response here is
 to decrease cell division rates over 400 generations until cells are
 dividing at the same rate their ancestors did in ambient CO2. Slow-growing
 cells have higher mitochondrial potential and withstand further
 environmental change better than faster growing cells. Based on this, we
 hypothesize that slow growth is adaptive under CO2 enrichment when
 associated with the production of higher quality daughter cells.
description: Data for Figure
 1Description: columns in
 csv file contain data as follows: ecotype - lineage of Ostreococccus.
 Initial plasticity - plasticity as measured at t0. Response - fitness
 response as measured at t400. for calculation see main manuscript and SI.
 whichresp - indicates whether response was measured in ancestral or
 selection environment. sdini and sdresp are standard deviations for
 plasticity at t0 and fitness response at t400 respectively. Here, they are
 pooled for 3 biological and 3 technical replicates. clade - clade A,B,C,D
 based on ITS sequences. year and culturing for year of isolation and
 culturing method at the Roscoff culture collection respectively.
 wherefrom: sampling depth as factor. Pst0 and growtht0 - are
 photosynthesis and growth rates at t0 (foldchange PS and foldchangegrowth
 are foldchanges thereof). Figure legend: (a–d) Lineages with higher
 ancestral plasticity evolve more. Direct and correlated responses to
 selection plotted as a function of plasticity in oxygen evolution rates
 before evolution (ancestral plasticity). For all panels (a–d), different
 shapes represent mean values for each lineages ± 1 s.e. For each lineage n
 = 3. Dashed line indicates no response to selection. Panel (a) (selection
 in FH, assay at 1000 ppm CO2): ancestral plasticity in FH evolved lineages
 predicts up to 47% of the evolutionary response (F2,13 = 210.67, p &lt;
 0.001). FH populations evolve slow growth in response to high pCO2. Panel
 (b) (selection in SH, assay at 1000 ppm CO2): with no selection for
 plasticity, a linear relationship using ancestral plasticity as the only
 explaining variable is not statistically significant (p = 0.63). Still,
 most lineages evolve lower growth rates (range from −0.31 to −0.08, mean
 −0.15 ± 0.12). Panel (c) (selection in FH, assay at 430 ppm CO2):
 ancestral plasticity is a significant nonlinear predictor of the
 correlated response to selection (F2,13 = 563.38, p &lt; 0.0001). Lineages
 from FH increased their growth rate at ambient pCO2 the most when their
 ancestral plasticity was high (increase in growth of 0.12–0.30, mean 0.19
 ± 0.05). Panel (d) (selection in SH, assay at 430 ppm CO2): lineages
 selected in SH had a negative correlated response, and the relationship
 between ancestral plasticity and the correlated response to selection was
 significant (F2,13 = 22.28, p &lt; 0.01), though best described by a
 nonlinear fit (p-values and r2 reported on the panels are for linear
 regression).evolvedresponsescolumns -
 Figure 1.csvData for Figure
 2Columns in data file
 contain - evoplas (evolved plasticity), iniplas (initial plasticity), as
 well as - evoplassd and - iniplassd (standard deviations pooled here for
 three biological and three technical replicates). clade - A,B,C,D - clade
 as found by ITS sequences.inievo4panel - Figure 2
 condensed for data dryad.csvdata for Figure
 3Data
 in columns is organised as follows: growthdif - foldchange difference of
 growth rate in selection environment compared to control environment.
 selected assay - selection environment and assay environment, e.g.
 1000fluc 1000ppm lineages have been selected at fluctuating 1000ppm CO2
 (FH in main manuscript) and were measured at 1000ppm CO2 (mean ppm in
 their selection environment). ecotype - lineage of Ostreococcus . forwhat
 - trait considered. Here, growth rate. hl - high or low pCO2. ls - long
 term or short term response.growthdiffdetail - Figure
 3.csv