DOI: 10.5061/dryad.44j0zpcbc
title: Characterizing uncertainty in climate impact projections: a case study with seven marine species on the North American continental shelf

description: Projections of climate change impacts on living resources are being
 conducted frequently, and the goal is often to inform policy. Species
 projections will be more useful if uncertainty is effectively quantified.
 However, few studies have comprehensively characterized the projection
 uncertainty arising from greenhouse gas scenarios, Earth system models,
 and both structural and parameter uncertainty in species distribution
 modeling. Here we conducted 8964 unique 21st century projections for
 shifts in suitable habitat for seven economically important marine species
 including American lobster, Pacific halibut, Pacific ocean perch, and
 summer flounder. For all species, both the Earth system model used to
 simulate future temperatures and the niche modeling approach used to
 represent species distributions were important sources of uncertainty,
 while variation associated with parameter values in niche models was
 minor. Greenhouse gas emissions scenario contributed to uncertainty for
 projections at the century scale. The characteristics of projection
 uncertainty differed among species and also varied spatially, which
 underscores the need for improved multi-model approaches with a suite of
 Earth system models and niche models forming the basis for uncertainty
 around projected impacts. Ensemble projections show the potential for
 major shifts in future distributions. Therefore, rigorous future
 projections are important for informing climate adaptation efforts.
description: For a full description of methodology, please refer to our
 published article "Characterizing uncertainty in climate impact
 projections: a case study with seven marine species on the North American
 continental shelf" published in ICES Journal of Marine
 Science.
description: NOTE: If you use these data, please cite the article
 "Characterizing uncertainty in climate impact projections: a case
 study with seven marine species on the North American continental
 shelf" published in ICES Journal of Marine Science.
 Data files are packaged as ".RData" files, to be used
 with R computing software. Filenames indicate
 scientific name of species (7 total species are modeled); Ocean (Pac =
 Pacific, Atl = Atlantic); Representative Concentration Pathway (i.e. RCP
 2.6, 4.5, or 8.5); Season of the year (i.e. "jas" is
 July-August-September); Type of species distribution model (GLM, GAM, or
 BRT).    Each .RData file contains projection output
 for a probability of occurence based niche model (pred.agg_PA) and a
 delta-biomass based niche model (pred.agg_biom). Each
 .RData file has 21 columns. 'year-range' indicates the
 aggregated 21st century time range; 'latitude' and
 'longitude' indicate geographic position of a grid cell;
 'mean1' through 'mean18' indicate projected values of
 habitat suitability for 18 Earth System Models (ESM). These ESMs are:
 c('bcc-csm1-1-m', 'bcc-csm1-1', 'CanESM2',
 'CCSM4', 'CESM1-CAM5', 'CNRM-CM5',
 'GFDL-CM3', 'GFDL-ESM2M', 'GFDL-ESM2G',
 'GISS-E2-R', 'GISS-E2-H', 'HadGEM2-ES',
 'IPSL-CM5A-LR', 'IPSL-CM5A-MR', 'MIROC-ESM',
 'MIROC5', 'MPI-ESM-LR',
 'NorESM1-ME')