DOI: 10.5061/dryad.4qrfj6qqj
title: From models to management: Implementing the climate-change refugia conservation cycle in national parks of the northeastern United States

description: Managing climate-change refugia is a commonly recommended strategy for
 conserving biodiversity. However, few efforts have moved beyond the
 modeling phase of refugia science to management. Here, we present two case
 studies that move beyond modeling to testing models and management. In the
 first case study, we model refugia for two plant species (three-toothed
 cinquefoil [Sibbaldia tridentata] and black crowberry [Empetrum nigrum])
 in Acadia National Park, Maine, United States, and use greenhouse
 experiments, common-garden experiments, and participatory science to
 evaluate the output of those models. Our results suggest that
 three-toothed cinquefoil growth and survival is reduced under increased
 temperatures as models predict. However, other variables (e.g., soil
 moisture and salinity) might also be important to modeling and managing
 refugia for both species. National Park Service staff and partners have
 been directing restoration for both species to refugia, but are also
 exploring other adaptation strategies. In the second case study, we
 demonstrate that existing prioritization processes for habitat restoration
 in national parks of the northeastern United States rarely incorporate
 refugia for two indicator species: Jefferson salamander (Ambystoma
 jeffersonianum) and grasshopper sparrow (Ammodramus savannarum). Our work
 demonstrates that moving beyond modeling can improve models and lead to
 new management insights.
description: # From models to management: Implementing the climate-change refugia
 conservation cycle in national parks of the northeastern United States
 Dataset DOI:
 [10.5061/dryad.4qrfj6qqj](https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.4qrfj6qqj) ##
 Description of the data and file structure The data contains code and csv
 files associated with: 1. A common garden experiment used to evaluate the
 sensitivity of three-toothed cinquefoil to high temperature. 2. A
 greenhouse experiment used to evaluate the sensitivity of three-toothed
 cinquefoil to high temperature under different water regimes. 3. An
 observational study evaluating whether three-toothed cinquefoil and black
 crowberry perform different in and out of predicted climate change
 refugia. ### Files and variables #### File:
 Nadeau_et_al-2025-CodeAndData.zip CommonGarden/code analyze_garden_data.R:
 R code used to format the data, perform statistical analyses, and produce
 the figures presented in the paper for the three-toothed cinquefoil common
 garden experiment. CommonGarden/data garden_cover_data.csv: measurements
 of percent cover for three-tooth cinquefoil in 3 common gardens from 2021
 to 2024 * garden: garden where the plants were grown * plot: unique
 identifier for populations in each garden * block: unique identifier for
 the date plants were planted * year: year cover was measured - cover:
 percent cover of three-toothed cinquefoil garden_light_data.csv: light
 measurements in each garden * date: date of measurement * garden: garden
 where the plants were grown * mon: month of measurement * year: year of
 measurement - lux.mean: average daily light to value (lux)
 garden_soil_moisture_data.csv: soil moisture measurements in each garden *
 garden: garden where the plants were grown * date: date of measurement *
 year: year of measurement * mon: month of measurement - vwc_soil.mean:
 average daily volumetric water content garden_temperature_data.csv:
 temperature in measurements in each garden * garden: garden where the
 plants were grown * date: date of measurement * year: year of measurement
 * mon: month of measurement * tem_air.max: maximum daily air temperature
 (°C) Greenhouse/code analyze_greenhouse_data: R code used to format the
 data, perform statistical analyses, and produce the figures presented in
 the paper for the three-toothed cinquefoil Greenhouse/data ```
 greenhouse_cadillac_precip_data.csv: precipitation data from the climate
 station located on Cadillac Mountain, in Acadia National Park, Maine, USA.
 ``` * date: date of measurement * precip_cm: total daily precipitation
 (cm) * week: week of the measurement * mon: month of measurement - year:
 year of measurement greenhouse_plant_data.csv: weekly plant measurements *
 plant_id: unique measurement for each pot * source: location where the
 plant was collected * trt: irrigation treatment * date: date plant was
 measured * day: day in the experiment when plant was measured, negative
 days are the acclamation period * alive: whether the plant was considered
 alive (1) or dead (0) - num_green_leaves: the number of green leaves on
 the plant greenhouse_temperature_data.csv: temperature measurements in the
 greenhouse during the experiment * date_time: date and time of the
 measurement * day: day in the experiment when plant was measured, negative
 days are the acclamation period * temp_c: temperature in the greenhouse
 (°C) Monitoring/code analyze_monitoring_data.R: R code used to format the
 data, perform statistical analyses, and produce the figures presented in
 the paper for monitoring cinquefoil and crowberry in and out of refugia
 Monitoring/data monitiring_data.csv: monitoring data for cinquefoil and
 crowberry * site.code: code for the site where measurements were taken *
 survey.date: date measurements were taken * year: your measurements were
 taken * \[sp].present: whether the focal species was present (1) or not
 (0) * num.cells.[sp]: number of cells within a quadrat with focal species
 present * num.cells.[so].flower: number of cells within a quadrat where
 focal species has flowers * num.cells.[sp].fruit: number of cells within a
 quadrat where focal species has fruit * num.cells.[sp].brleaves: number of
 cells within a quadrat where focal species has brown leaves * site: site
 where measurements were taken * refugia.[sp]: whether the site was a
 refugee for the focal species (1) or not (0) * doy: the day of year that
 the measurements were taken * prop.brown.[sp]: the proportion of cells
 containing the focal species that had brown leaves * prop.fruit.crow: the
 proportion of cells containing crowberry that had fruit *
 prop.flower.cinq: the proportion of cells containing cinquefoil that had
 flowers ## Code/software R Software Environment