DOI: 10.5061/dryad.59zw3r2km
title: Supporting reintroduction planning: A framework integrating habitat suitability, connectivity and individual-based modelling. A case study with the Eurasian lynx in the Apennines

description: Aim: Reintroducing carnivores is a widely used approach to restore the
 natural integrity of ecosystems. Species distribution models (SDMs) and
 connectivity analyses are valuable tools for planning reintroductions and
 identifying release sites but are rarely combined. We propose a new
 framework combining SDMs, connectivity modelling and individual‐based
 models (IBMs) to assess the feasibility of various reintroduction
 scenarios. As a case study, we applied this framework to plan a potential
 reintroduction of the Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) to the Apennines by: (i)
 assessing niche overlap between potential source and target populations;
 (ii) integrating habitat suitability and connectivity to select release
 sites and (iii) evaluating reintroduction outcomes through IBMs. Location:
 Apennines, Peninsular Italy. Methods: We combined niche overlap analysis,
 ensembles of fine‐tuned SDMs and circuit‐theory techniques to model
 connectivity. Then, we integrated suitability and connectivity predictions
 within a GIS environment to identify the optimal release sites under
 different scenarios. Finally, we used IBMs to assess population viability,
 site occupancy and dispersal. Results: Niche overlap suggested that the
 Carpathian lynx populations may serve as a valid reintroduction source.
 Integrating habitat and connectivity models highlighted the most
 functional sites in the Central (CA) and Northern Apennines (NA). A
 scenario with individuals released in both CA and NA did not outperform
 the single‐area scenarios. Releasing individuals only in CA showed
 long‐term feasibility but a higher risk of isolation, while release only
 in NA would not result in viable populations in the long term, despite
 closer proximity to suitable areas in the Alps. Main conclusions: Our
 framework can help practitioners with integrating functional connectivity
 within the selection of release sites for species reintroductions. We
 recommend incorporating demography, as well as dispersal and settlement
 phases, when evaluating reintroduction scenarios. This approach identifies
 critical mortality areas, predicts population size, site occupancy and
 connectivity and enhances decision‐making for successful reintroductions.
description: # Supporting reintroduction planning: A framework integrating habitat
 suitability, connectivity and individual-based modelling. A case study
 with the Eurasian lynx in the Apennines Dataset DOI:
 [10.5061/dryad.59zw3r2km](10.5061/dryad.59zw3r2km) ## Aim of the study The
 aim of the study was to develop a framework able to support reintroduction
 planning through ecological modeling techniques. Thus, we created the
 'MDS' framework (Model, Define and Simulate), where niche
 overlap, species distribution models (SDMs), connectivity modeling, and
 individual-based models (IBMs) are integrated to model niche overlap
 between potential source and target populations, define potential release
 sites, and simulate several reintroduction scenarios to evaluate their
 outcomes. The following data are related to a case study of a Eurasian
 lynx (*Lynx lynx*) reintroduction in the Apennines where we used the MDS
 framework. ### Recommended Citation Serva, D., Krofel, M., Cerasoli, F.,
 Biondi, M., & Iannella, M. (2025). Supporting Reintroduction Planning:
 A Framework Integrating Habitat Suitability, Connectivity and
 Individual‐Based Modelling. A Case Study With the Eurasian Lynx in the
 Apennines. *Diversity and Distributions*, *31*(4), e70024. ## Dataset
 Overview: description of the data and file structure Main results of the
 article: **Supporting reintroduction planning: a framework integrating
 habitat suitability, connectivity, and individual-based modeling, a case
 study with the Eurasian lynx in the Apennines** by Davide Serva*, Miha
 Krofel, Francesco Cerasoli, Maurizio Biondi & Mattia Iannella
 Correspond to
 *[davide.serva@graduate.univaq.it](mailto:davide.serva@graduate.univaq.it)* for any further information. Results provided are: * Habitat suitability for the Apennines at ~300m resolution (.tif); this layer was obtained as a result of an ensemble modeling approach with the 'SDMtune' R package.  * Habitat connectivity for the Apennines at ~300m resolution (.tif); this layer was obtained using Circuitscape in the 'pairwise' mode between the most suitable patches detected from the habitat suitability layer. * Habitat functionality for the Apennines at ~300m resolution (.tif); This layer was obtained by integrating with a weighted mean the habitat suitability (60%) and the connectivity layer (40%).  * Potential reintroduction patches (.shp) identified from the habitat functionality layerwith the 'Locate' tool in ArcGIS Pro.  * Colonization time and occurrence probabilities from the IBMs simulations: N (Northern Apennines reintroduction); C (Central Apennines reintroduction); NC (Reintroduction in both areas). RN represents the 'red_noise' type of environmental stochasticity; all the files are at 100m resolution (.tif); * Dispersal heatmap from the SMS obtained from the IBMs for the reintroduction scenario in both the Northern and Central Apennines at 100m resolution (.tif). All the raster layers are provided at a resolution of ~300m, and under the coordinate reference system EPSG:3035 - ETRS89-extended / LAEA Europe.  ### Files and variables: #### File: lynx_suitability_apennines.tif **Description:** habitat suitability layer for the Apennines #### File: lynx_connectivity_apennines.tif **Description:** habitat connectivity layer for the Apennines #### File: lynx_habitatfunctionality_apennines.tif **Description:** habitat functionality layer for the Apennines #### File: all_suitloc_patches_mod.cpg **Description:** .cpg file, needed to open the shapefile.  #### File: all_suitloc_patches_mod.dbf **Description:** .dbf file, needed to open the shapefile.  #### File: all_suitloc_patches_mod.prj **Description:** .prj file, needed to open the shapefile.  #### File: all_suitloc_patches_mod.sbn **Description:** .sbn file, needed to open the shapefile.  #### File: all_suitloc_patches_mod.sbx **Description:** .sbx file, needed to open the shapefile.  #### File: all_suitloc_patches_mod.shx **Description:** .shx file, needed to open the shapefile.  #### File: all_suitloc_patches_mod.shp **Description:** shapefile of the potential reintroduction sites obtained from the habitat functionality layer.  #### File: coltime_suitloc_C_RN_IndLF.tif **Description:** colonization time for a reintroduction in the Central Apennines, obtained from the 'RangeShiftR' R package.  #### File: coltime_suitloc_N_RN_IndLF.tif **Description:** colonization time for a reintroduction in the Northern Apennines, obtained from the 'RangeShiftR' R package.  #### File: occprob_suitloc_C_RN_IndLF.tif **Description:** occurrence probability for a reintroduction in the Central Apennines, obtained from the 'RangeShiftR' R package.  #### File: coltime_suitloc_NC_RN_IndLF.tif **Description:** colonization time for a reintroduction in both the Northern and the Central Apennines, obtained from the 'RangeShiftR' R package.  #### File: occprob_suitloc_N_RN_IndLF.tif **Description:** occurrence probability for a reintroduction in the Northern Apennines, obtained from the 'RangeShiftR' R package.  #### File: occprob_suitloc_NC_RN_IndLF.tif **Description:** occurrence probability for a reintroduction in both the Northern and the Central Apennines, obtained from the 'RangeShiftR' R package.  #### File: heatmapsNC.tif **Description:** dispersal heatmaps obtained from the Stochastic Movement Simulator within 'RangeShiftR' for a reintroduction in both the Northern and the Central Apennines. ## Sharing/Access Information Data are related to the following article: [https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.70024](https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.70024) ## Code/software Data can be inspected both in GIS-related software and R, using the 'terra' and 'sf' packages. Rasters can be accessed in R with the 'terra' R package (function 'rast'), or within GIS software (e.g., QGIS).  The shapefile can be accessed in R with the 'terra' (function 'vect') and 'sf' R packages (function 'st_read'), or within GIS software (e.g., QGIS).