DOI: 10.5061/dryad.9p8cz8wc6
title: Local extinction risk under climate change in a neotropical asymmetrically dispersed epiphyte

description: 1. The long-term fate of populations experiencing disequilibrium
 conditions with their environment will ultimately depend on how local
 colonization and extinction dynamics respond to abiotic conditions (e.g.
 temperature and rainfall), dispersal limitation and biotic interactions
 (e.g. competition, facilitation, or interactions with natural enemies).
 Understanding how these factors influence distributional dynamics under
 climate change is a major knowledge gap, particularly for small ranged and
 dispersal-limited plant species, which are at higher risk of extinction.
 Epiphytes are hypothesized to be particularly vulnerable to climate change
 and we know little about what drives their distribution and how they will
 respond to climate change. To address this issue, we leveraged a 10-year
 data set on the occupancy dynamics of the endemic orchid Lepanthes
 rupestris to identify the drivers of local colonization and extinction
 dynamics and assess the long-term fate of this population under multiple
 climate change scenarios. 2. We compared 290 dynamic occupancy models in
 their ability to predict the colonization and extinction dynamics of a L.
 rupestris metapopulation. The model set predicted colonization-extinction
 dynamics as a function of asymmetric patch connectivity, moss area,
 elevation, temperature (minimum, maximum and variability), and/or
 rainfall. 3. The best model predicted that local colonization increases
 with increasing asymmetric patch connectivity but decreases as minimum
 temperature and maximum temperature variability increase. The best model
 also predicted that local extinction increases with increasing variability
 in maximum temperature. Negative effects were more severe in smaller
 patches. 4. Synthesis: Overall, our results demonstrate the role of
 asymmetric connectivity, climate and interactions with moss area as
 drivers of colonization and extinction dynamics. Moreover, our results
 suggest that asymmetrically dispersed epiphytes may struggle to persist
 under climate change because their limited connectivity may not be enough
 to counterbalance the negative effects of increasing mean or variability
 in temperature.
description: We used presence/absence data on a permanent plot (18°18′N,
 65°47′W) of 975 mapped occupied and non-occupied patches (either rock or
 tree phorophytes).  Many times these patches were surveyed multiple times
 a year from 1999–2008.  The total moss area was estimated in each patch
 using a 150 cm<sup>2</sup> grid.  See Tremblay et al. 2006 for
 details on plot establishment and design.
description: 1. Dataset info: lepa_all.csv 2.
 Researchers:<br> Miguel A. Acevedo, Wildlife Ecology and
 Conservation, University of Florida<br> Lydia Beaudrot, Department
 of Biosciences, Program in Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Rice
 University<br> Elvia J. Meléndez-Ackerman, Department of
 Environmental Sciences, University of Puerto Rico, Río Piedras<br>
 Raymond L. Tremblay, Department of Biology, University of Puerto Rico,
 Humacao 3. Contact:<br> Original data sheets
 stored by<br> Raymond L. Tremblay<br>
 raymond.tremblay@upr.edu 4.  Dates: 1999-2008
 5. Geographic location: Luquillo Experimental Forest, Puerto
 Rico 6. Column definition:<br> UID: unique id for
 phorophyte<br> x.coord.: X-coordinate<br> y.coord.:
 Y-coordinate<br> z.coordinate: Z-coordinate<br> Phorophyte:
 Phorophyte type either rock or tree<br> X70199: Sampling in
 1999<br> X20100: First sampling of 2000<br> X80100: Second
 sampling of 2000<br> X10101: First sampling of 2001<br>
 X60101: Second sampling of 2001<br> X10102: First sampling of
 2002<br> X60102: Second sampling of 2002<br> X120202: Third
 sampling of 2002 (late in the year)<br> X61003: First sampling of
 2003<br> X12404: First sampling of 2004<br> X7104: Second
 sampling of 2004<br> X12205: First sampling of 2005<br>
 X91705: Second sampling of 2005<br> X72406: First sampling of
 2006<br> X20307: First sampling of 2007<br> X61507: Second
 sampling of 2007<br> X10208: First sampling of 2008<br>
 Total_Moss_area: Total are covered by moss in the phorophyte
 Environmental data available in:
 https://luq.lter.network/datacatalog Methods are
 described in Acevedo et al. 2020 Local extinction risk under climate
 change in a neotropical asymmetrically dispersed epiphyte. Journal of
 Ecology