DOI: 10.5061/dryad.1m2vn52
title: Data from: Projecting shifts in thermal habitat for 686 species on the North American continental shelf

description: Recent shifts in the geographic distribution of marine species have been
 linked to shifts in preferred thermal habitats. These shifts in
 distribution have already posed challenges for living marine resource
 management, and there is a strong need for projections of how species
 might be impacted by future changes in ocean temperatures during the 21st
 century. We modeled thermal habitat for 686 marine species in the Atlantic
 and Pacific oceans using long-term ecological survey data from the North
 American continental shelves. These habitat models were coupled to output
 from sixteen general circulation models that were run under high (RCP 8.5)
 and low (RCP 2.6) future greenhouse gas emission scenarios over the 21st
 century to produce 32 possible future outcomes for each species. The
 models generally agreed on the magnitude and direction of future shifts
 for some species (448 or 429 under RCP 8.5 and RCP 2.6, respectively), but
 strongly disagreed for other species (116 or 120 respectively). This
 allowed us to identify species with more or less robust predictions.
 Future shifts in species distributions were generally poleward and
 followed the coastline, but also varied among regions and species. Species
 from the U.S. and Canadian west coast including the Gulf of Alaska had the
 highest projected magnitude shifts in distribution, and many species
 shifted more than 1000 km under the high greenhouse gas emissions
 scenario. Following a strong mitigation scenario consistent with the Paris
 Agreement would likely produce substantially smaller shifts and less
 disruption to marine management efforts. Our projections offer an
 important tool for identifying species, fisheries, and management efforts
 that are particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts.
description: Pacific spp
 rcp26This zipped file
 contains all the projections for Pacific species for RCP 2.6. Each file
 contains 21st century projection data for a single species and one of two
 RCPs (representative concentration pathway). The files are stored as
 ‘.RData’ files and each contains a single data frame to be used with R
 computing software. Each row of data consists of projected
 catch-per-unit-effort within a specific latitude-longitude referenced grid
 cell, for one of five time periods (2007-2020, 2021-2040, 2041-2060,
 2061-2080, 2081-2100). Please refer to the ‘READ ME’ file that is included
 with the zip file for more details.Pacific spp
 rcp85This zipped file
 contains all the projections for Pacific species for RCP 8.5. Each file
 contains 21st century projection data for a single species and one of two
 RCPs (representative concentration pathway). The files are stored as
 ‘.RData’ files and each contains a single data frame to be used with R
 computing software. Each row of data consists of projected
 catch-per-unit-effort within a specific latitude-longitude referenced grid
 cell, for one of five time periods (2007-2020, 2021-2040, 2041-2060,
 2061-2080, 2081-2100). Please refer to the ‘READ ME’ file that is included
 with the zip file for more details.Atlantic spp
 rcp26_A-LThis zipped file
 contains all the projections for Atlantic species for RCP 2.6, which have
 genera names beginning with the letters 'A' through
 'L'. Each file contains 21st century projection data for a
 single species and one of two RCPs (representative concentration pathway).
 The files are stored as ‘.RData’ files and each contains a single data
 frame to be used with R computing software. Each row of data consists of
 projected catch-per-unit-effort within a specific latitude-longitude
 referenced grid cell, for one of five time periods (2007-2020, 2021-2040,
 2041-2060, 2061-2080, 2081-2100). Please refer to the ‘READ ME’ file that
 is included with the zip file for more details.Atlantic spp
 rcp26_M-ZThis zipped file
 contains all the projections for Atlantic species for RCP 2.6, which have
 genera names beginning with the letters 'M' through
 'Z'. Each file contains 21st century projection data for a
 single species and one of two RCPs (representative concentration pathway).
 The files are stored as ‘.RData’ files and each contains a single data
 frame to be used with R computing software. Each row of data consists of
 projected catch-per-unit-effort within a specific latitude-longitude
 referenced grid cell, for one of five time periods (2007-2020, 2021-2040,
 2041-2060, 2061-2080, 2081-2100). Please refer to the ‘READ ME’ file that
 is included with the zip file for more details.Atlantic spp
 rcp85_A-LThis zipped file
 contains all the projections for Atlantic species for RCP 8.5, which have
 genera names beginning with the letters 'A' through
 'L'. Each file contains 21st century projection data for a
 single species and one of two RCPs (representative concentration pathway).
 The files are stored as ‘.RData’ files and each contains a single data
 frame to be used with R computing software. Each row of data consists of
 projected catch-per-unit-effort within a specific latitude-longitude
 referenced grid cell, for one of five time periods (2007-2020, 2021-2040,
 2041-2060, 2061-2080, 2081-2100). Please refer to the ‘READ ME’ file that
 is included with the zip file for more details.Atlantic spp
 rcp85_M-ZThis zipped file
 contains all the projections for Atlantic species for RCP 8.5, which have
 genera names beginning with the letters 'M' through
 'Z'. Each file contains 21st century projection data for a
 single species and one of two RCPs (representative concentration pathway).
 The files are stored as ‘.RData’ files and each contains a single data
 frame to be used with R computing software. Each row of data consists of
 projected catch-per-unit-effort within a specific latitude-longitude
 referenced grid cell, for one of five time periods (2007-2020, 2021-2040,
 2041-2060, 2061-2080, 2081-2100). Please refer to the ‘READ ME’ file that
 is included with the zip file for more details.