DOI: 10.5061/dryad.886pr72
title: Data from: Statistical forecasting of current and future circum-Arctic ground temperatures and active layer thickness

description: Mean annual ground temperature (MAGT) and active layer thickness (ALT) are
 key to understanding the evolution of the ground thermal state across the
 Arctic under climate change. Here a statistical modeling approach is
 presented to forecast current and future circum-Arctic MAGT and ALT in
 relation to climatic and local environmental factors, at spatial scales
 unreachable with contemporary transient modeling. After deploying an
 ensemble of multiple statistical techniques, distance-blocked
 cross-validation between observations and predictions suggested excellent
 and reasonable transferability of the MAGT and ALT models, respectively.
 The MAGT forecasts indicated currently suitable conditions for permafrost
 to prevail over an area of 15.1 ± 2.8 × 106 km2. This extent is likely to
 dramatically contract in the future, as the results showed consistent, but
 region-specific, changes in ground thermal regime due to climate change.
 The forecasts provide new opportunities to assess future Arctic changes in
 ground thermal state and biogeochemical feedbacks.
description: Circum-Arctic mean
 annual ground temperature rastersThese data represent the
 mean annual ground temperature (MAGT, in °C) forecasts over northern
 hemisphere land areas (&gt;30°N) presented in the manuscript by Aalto et
 al., (2018) "Statistical forecasting of current and future
 circum-Arctic ground temperatures and active layer thickness"
 published in Geophysical Research Letters. The data has been produced for
 several time periods and representative concentration pathways (RCP), and
 they represent the ensemble median of four statistical modelling
 techniques: MAGT_Baseline.tif # Forecasted MAGT 2000-2014
 MAGT_2050RCP26.tif # 2041-2060 RCP 2.6 MAGT_2050RCP45.tif # 2041-2060 RCP
 4.5 MAGT_2050RCP85.tif # 2041-2060 RCP 8.5 MAGT_2070RCP26.tif # 2061-2080
 RCP 2.6 MAGT_2070RCP45.tif # 2061-2080 RCP 4.5 MAGT_2070RCP85.tif #
 2061-2080 RCP 8.5 Coordinate reference system = WGS84 (epsg:4326), spatial
 resolution = 30 arc seconds Contact:
 juha.aalto@helsinki.fiMAGT_Rasters.zipCircum-Arctic active layer thickness rasters"Circum-Arctic active layer thickness rasters" These data represent the active layer thickness (ALT, in cm) forecasts over northern hemisphere land areas (&gt;30°N) presented in the manuscript by Aalto et al., (2018) "Statistical forecasting of current and future circum-Arctic ground temperatures and active layer thickness" published in Geophysical Research Letters. The data has been produced for several time periods and representative concentration pathways (RCP), and they represent the ensemble median of four statistical modelling techniques: ALT_Baseline.tif # Forecasted ALT 2000-2014 ALT_2050RCP26.tif # 2041-2060 RCP 2.6 ALT_2050RCP45.tif # 2041-2060 RCP 4.5 ALT_2050RCP85.tif # 2041-2060 RCP 8.5 ALT_2070RCP26.tif # 2061-2080 RCP 2.6 ALT_2070RCP45.tif # 2061-2080 RCP 4.5 ALT_2070RCP85.tif # 2061-2080 RCP 8.5 Coordinate reference system = WGS84 (epsg:4326), spatial resolution = 30 arc seconds Contact: juha.aalto@helsinki.fiALT_Rasters.zip