DOI: 10.3886/e233225v1
title: Climate.gov Data Snapshots: Precipitation - Monthly Outlook

description: <b>Q: What are the chances that total precipitation will be below, near, or above average next month?
</b><b>
 </b><br><b>A:</b> Colors
 show where total precipitation has an increased chance of being higher 
or lower than usual during the next month. The darker the shading, the 
greater the chance for the indicated condition. White areas have equal 
chances for precipitation totals that are below, near, or above the 
long-term average (median) for the month.

 
 <br><b>Q: How do experts develop these forecasts?
</b><b>
 </b><br><b>A:</b> Climate
 scientists base future climate outlooks on current patterns in the 
ocean and atmosphere. They examine projections from climate and weather 
models and consider recent trends. They also check historical records to
 see how much precipitation fell when patterns were similar in the past.

 
 <br><b>Q: What do the colors mean?</b><b>
 </b><br><b>A:</b> Colors
 on the map show experts’ level of confidence in their forecasts for 
above or below median precipitation totals. Each location on the map has
 some chance to receive precipitation that ranks in the bottom, middle, 
or top third of records from the previous three decades. White areas 
have equal chances for each condition. Colors show where the odds for 
one of the three conditions are higher than for the other two.<br>
<br>
A common mistake is to interpret these maps as predictions of 
precipitation amounts. However, dark green areas are not predicted to 
receive more precipitation than light green areas. The dark green areas 
simply have a higher likelihood of receiving above median amounts of 
rain than the light green areas do. Similarly, dark brown areas are not 
predicted to receive less rain than light brown areas.<br>
<br>
Keep in mind that outlooks show the most likely condition for each region, not the only possible outcome.

 
 <br><b>Q: Why do these data matter?</b><b>
 </b><br><b>A:</b> Water
 managers, farmers, and forestry officials have an intense interest in 
precipitation outlooks. They use them to help make decisions about water
 resources, irrigation, and fire-fighting resources. Flood forecasters 
also use these outlooks. They want to know as early as possible if an 
area is likely to receive more precipitation than usual.

 
 <br><b>Q: How did you produce these snapshots?</b><b>
 </b><br><b>A:</b> Data
 Snapshots are derivatives of existing data products: to meet the needs 
of a broad audience, we present the source data in a simplified visual 
style. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) produces the source images
 for monthly precipitation outlooks. To produce our images, we run a set
 of scripts that access map layers from CPC, re-project them into 
desired projections at various sizes, and output them with a custom 
color bar.

 
 
 <br><b>Additional information</b>
 CPC issues 
monthly outlooks one-half month before the beginning of the month of 
interest. On the day before the new month begins, experts update the 
outlook for the upcoming month. Each monthly outlook in Data Snapshots 
shows the date the outlook was issued.

Outlooks that include Alaska are available: while displaying an 
outlook of interest, click the Download button, select Full Resolution 
Assets, and then click OK

 
 <br><b>References</b>
 
 One-Month to Three-Month Climate Outlooks.<br>
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/

<br><br>Current Outlook Discussion<br>
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus07.html
 <br>Source: https://www.climate.gov/maps-data/data-snapshots/data-source/precipitation-monthly-outlook<br><br><br>This upload includes two additional files:<br>* Precipitation - Monthly Outlook _NOAA Climate.gov.pdf is a screenshot of the main Climate.gov site for these snapshots (https://www.climate.gov/maps-data/data-snapshots/data-source/precipitation-monthly-outlook)<br>* Cimate_gov_ Data Snapshots.pdf is a screenshot of the data download page for the full-resolution files.<br><br><br>
description: Data is divided in to folders by image resolution -- full size (zip), small (png) and large (png). Occasionally there may be one image missing in a particular size but available in another size.<br><br>Data downloaded from climate.gov 6/17/2025.