DOI: 10.3886/icpsr36836.v1
title: Estimating the Prevalence of Wrongful Convictions, Virginia, 1973-1987
title: Version 1

description: This study extends research on wrongful convictions in the United States and the factors associated with justice system errors that lead to the incarceration of innocent people. Among cases where physical evidence produced a DNA profile of known origin, 12.6 percent of the cases had DNA evidence that would support a claim of wrongful conviction. Extrapolating to all cases in our dataset, the investigators estimate a slightly smaller rate of 11.6 percent. This result was based on forensics, case processing, and disposition data collected on murder and sexual assault convictions in the 1970s and 1980s across 56 circuit courts in the state of Virginia. To address limitations in the amount and type of information provided in forensic files that were reviewed in the Urban Institute's prior examination of these data, the current research includes data collected through a review of all publicly available documents on court processes and dispositions across the 714 convictions, which the investigators use to reassess prior estimates of wrongful conviction.
description: The purpose of this study is to extend prior research on the prevalence of wrongful convictions based on forensics, case processing, and disposition data.
description: The study design includes two parts. Part I includes the 2012 Urban Institute report, "Post-Conviction DNA Testing and Wrongful Conviction," which presented an estimated rate of wrongful conviction based on post-conviction DNA testing of over 700 felony convictions in the state of Virginia between 1973 and 1987 (Roman et al. 2012). Part II of the study represents an effort to overcome the limitations of the Part I study by reviewing all publicly available files from over 50 Virginia Circuit Courts to collect case processing and disposition data for each conviction included in Part I.
description: Variables include whether or not many specific types of forensic evidence were available, details on the case such as plea, type of trial, type of counsel, and others, as well as offender demographic data.
description: The variable <b>Determinate_Weight</b> is an inverse probability weight used to adjust the sample of cases with determinate post-conviction DNA testing results to assimilate all cases involving a sexual assault component (as identified using the variable <b>Court_Sexassault</b>).
description: Response Rates: Not available.
description: Presence of Common Scales: Not applicable.
description: Cases in this study represent 714 murder and/or sexual assault convictions disposed in Virginia between 1973 and 1987 for which forensic evidence from the original case file was found.
description: Datasets: DS1: Estimating the Prevalence of Wrongful Convictions, Virginia, 1973-1987
description: Sexual assault and homicide cases where there was a conviction and physical evidence was retained in Virginia between 1973 and 1987. Smallest Geographic Unit: None.
description: coded on-site observationThe first report from analysis of Part I data (based only on forensic files and not courthouse files) can be found here: https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/nij/grants/238816.pdf