DOI: 10.5061/dryad.90cv2
title: Data from: Tick exposure and extreme climate events impact survival and threaten the persistence of a long-lived lizard

description: 1. Assessing the impacts of multiple, often synergistic, stressors on the
 population dynamics of long-lived species is becoming increasingly
 important due to recent and future global change. 2. Tiliqua rugosa
 (sleepy lizard) is a long-lived skink (&gt;30 years) that is adapted
 to survive in semi-arid environments with varying levels of parasite
 exposure and highly seasonal food availability. We used an exhaustive
 database of 30-years of capture-mark-recapture records to quantify the
 impacts of both parasite exposure and environmental conditions on the
 lizard's survival rates and long-term population dynamics. 3. Lizard
 abundance was relatively stable throughout the study period; however there
 were changing patterns in adult and juvenile apparent survival rates,
 driven by spatial and temporal variation in levels of tick exposure and
 temporal variation in environmental conditions. Extreme weather events
 during the winter and spring seasons were identified as important
 environmental drivers of survival. 4. Climate models predict a dramatic
 increase in the frequency of extreme hot and dry winter and spring seasons
 in our South Australian study region; from a contemporary probability of
 0.17 up to 0.47 - 0.83 in 2080 depending on the emissions scenario. Our
 stochastic population model projections showed that these future climatic
 conditions will induce a decline in the abundance of this long-lived
 reptile of up to 67% within 30 years from 2080, under worst case scenario
 modelling. 5. The results have broad implications for future work
 investigating the drivers of population dynamics and persistence. We
 highlight the importance of long-term datasets and accounting for
 synergistic impacts between multiple stressors. We show that predicted
 increases in the frequency of extreme climate events have the potential to
 considerably and negatively influence a long-lived species, which might
 previously have been assumed to be resilient to environmental
 perturbations.
description: Lizard capture mark
 recapture dataThe first worksheet
 contains the capture history for each of the 5849 individual sleepy
 lizards in the sampled population throughout the 30-year study. The raw
 capture data was pooled to an annual time period, therefore the capture
 histories are continuous, annual resolution data from 1982 - 2011. Each
 row is the data from a different individual. The first column contains the
 capture histories in Rmark multi-state format where each letter represents
 a capture event in a different 'tick exposure risk state': A =
 B. hydrosauri low, B = B. hydrosauri moderate, C = B. hydrosauri high, D =
 A. limbatum low, E = A. limbatum moderate, F = A. limbatum high. A zero in
 the capture history means that the individual was not encountered at that
 period in the time series. The second column contains the age of the
 individual *at first capture*. The second sheet contains the annual
 environmental data that were used as covariates in the multi-state
 capture-mark-recapture models.Multistate_capture_mark_recapture_data_RMark_format.xlsxBASELINE worst case RAMAS female only modelThis is the RAMAS metapopulation model file for estimating the the baseline (current conditions) effect of 'hot and dry' and 'cool and wet' winter and spring conditions on the sleepy lizard study population. The effect of these extreme conditions are based on the largest effect size estimated from the capture-mark-recapture models (i.e. worst case).BASELINE_worst_case_female_only.mpPOLICY worst case female only RAMAS modelThis is the RAMAS metapopulation model file for estimating the the worst case effect of 'hot and dry' and 'cool and wet' winter and spring conditions on the sleepy lizard study population in the future. The probabilities of extreme conditions are based on regional temperature and rainfall forecasts from an ensemble climate model under policy greenhouse gas emission scenarios.POLICY_worst_case_female_only.mpREFERENCE worst case female only RAMAS modelThis is the RAMAS metapopulation model file for estimating the the worst case effect of 'hot and dry' and 'cool and wet' winter and spring conditions on the sleepy lizard study population in the future. The probabilities of extreme conditions are based on regional temperature and rainfall forecasts from an ensemble climate model under reference greenhouse gas emission scenarios.REFERENCE_worst_case_female_only.mpBASELINE best case female only RAMAS modelThis is the RAMAS metapopulation model file for estimating the the baseline (current conditions) effect of 'hot and dry' and 'cool and wet' winter and spring conditions on the sleepy lizard study population. The effect of these extreme conditions are based on the smallest effect size estimated from the capture-mark-recapture models (i.e. best case).BASELINE_best_case_female_only.mpPOLICY best case female only RAMAS modelThis is the RAMAS metapopulation model file for estimating the the best case effect of 'hot and dry' and 'cool and wet' winter and spring conditions on the sleepy lizard study population in the future. The probabilities of extreme conditions are based on regional temperature and rainfall forecasts from an ensemble climate model under policy greenhouse gas emission scenarios.POLICY_best_case_female_only.mpREFERENCE best case female only RAMAS modelThis is the RAMAS metapopulation model file for estimating the the best case effect of 'hot and dry' and 'cool and wet' winter and spring conditions on the sleepy lizard study population in the future. The probabilities of extreme conditions are based on regional temperature and rainfall forecasts from an ensemble climate model under reference greenhouse gas emission scenarios.REFERENCE_best_case_female_only.mp