DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.14615500
title: SECURES-Energy: Hourly electricity demand and supply profiles for historical climate and climate change projections in Europe until 2100

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SECURES-Energy

Weather-dependent renewable electricity systems are vulnerable to climate change impacts. Electricity generation and demand profiles considering weather and climate impacts are needed in energy system modelling. We present a consistent and high-quality energy database in data formats useful for energy system modelling and keeping the high spatiotemporal complexity of climate data. The open-access dataset SECURES-Energy contains all relevant electricity demand and supply components for the EU and several additional European countries in hourly resolution covering the period 1981-2100. It is based on reanalysis data ERA5(-Land) for the historical period and two EURO-CORDEX emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). On the generation side, impacts on onshore and offshore wind power generation, solar PV generation, and hydropower generation (run-of-river and reservoirs) – which is often missing in comparable datasets – are provided. On the demand side, all demand components relevant to future electricity systems including e-heating, e-cooling, e-mobility, and electricity demand in industry, are provided.

The detailed methods are described in the final project report (see link below) in Chapter 2.2 and Chapter 4.3 and a related journal publication is currently in preparation.

Further information:



Project website SECURES: https://www.secures.at/

All project-related publications: https://www.secures.at/publications

Final SECURES project report: https://www.secures.at/fileadmin/cmc/Final_Report_SECURES.pdf and https://www.klimafonds.gv.at/wp-content/uploads/sites/16/C061007-ACRP12-SECURES-KR19AC0K17532-EB.pdf


The SECURES-Energy dataset provides variables visible in the table.



Hourly profiles ERA5-Land 1981-2010

Hourly profiles RCP 4.5/RCP 8.5 2011-2100


 

Production profiles:




Variable
Short name
Unit
Temporal resolution


Photovoltaics
pv
-
hourly


Wind onshore
wind
-
hourly


Wind offshore
wind_offshore
-
hourly


Hydro run-of-river
hydro_ror
-
hourly




 

Demand profiles:




Variable
Short name
Unit
Explanation


Temperature
temperature


°C



Population-weighted mean temperature (2 m)





Rounded temperature

rounded_temperature
°C
Temperature values rounded to zero decimal places


Daytype
day type
-


weekdays = typeday 0; Saturday or day before a holiday = typeday 1; Sunday or holiday = typeday 2



Month


month



-



 The column “month” refers to the month of the year. 1 = January, 2 = February etc.



 Season
season
-


0 = Summer (15/05 - 14/09)

1 = Winter (1/11 - 20/3)

2 = Transition (21/3 - 14/5 & 15/9 - 31/10)



Load e-mobilty


load_emobility



-



E-mobility electricity demand profile, normalized to an annual demand of 1,000,000 in the reference year 2010 (weather-dependent)



Non-metallic minerals


non_metallic_minerals



-



Electricity demand profile of the industrial sector non-metallic minerals, normalized to an annual demand of 200,000 (sum of all industry sectors 1,000,000) (non-weather-dependent)



Paper


paper



-



Electricity demand profile of the industrial sector paper, normalized to an annual demand of 200,000 (sum of all industry sectors 1,000,000) (non-weather-dependent)



Iron and steel


iron_and_steel



-

Electricity demand profile of the industrial sector iron and steel, normalized to an annual demand of 200,000 (sum of all industry sectors 1,000,000) (non-weather-dependent)


Chemicals and petrochemicals


chemicals_and_petrochemicals



-



Electricity demand profile of the industrial sector chemicals and petrochemicals, normalized to an annual demand of 200,000 (sum of all industry sectors 1,000,000) (non-weather-dependent)



Food and tobacco


food_and_tobacco



-



Electricity demand profile of the industrial sector food and tobacco, normalized to an annual demand of 200,000 (sum of all industry sectors 1,000,000) (non-weather-dependent)



SHW residential


shw_residential



-



Electricity demand profile for sanitary hot water in the residential sector, normalized to an annual demand of 1,000,000 (non-weather-dependent)



SHW tertiary


shw_tertiary



 



Electricity demand profile for sanitary hot water in the tertiary sector, normalized to an annual demand of 1,000,000 (non-weather-dependent)



Cooling residential


cooling_residential



-



Electricity demand profile for cooling in the residential sector, normalized to an annual demand of 1,000,000 in the reference year 2010 (weather-dependent)



Heating residential


heating_residential



-



Electricity demand profile for heating in the residential sector, normalized to an annual demand of 1,000,000 in the reference year 2010 (weather-dependent)



Cooling tertiary


cooling_tertiary



-



Electricity demand profile for cooling in the tertiary sector, normalized to an annual demand of 1,000,000 in the reference year 2010 (weather-dependent)



Heating tertiary


heating_tertiary



-



Electricity demand profile for heating in the tertiary sector, normalized to an annual demand of 1,000,000 in the reference year 2010 (weather-dependent)



Rest


rest



-



Rest electricity demand profile, normalized to an annual demand of 1,000,000 (non-weather-dependent)



Exogenous H2


exogenous_H2



-



Electricity demand profile for electrolysis (flat profile), normalized to an annual demand  of 1,000,000 (non-weather-dependent)



Total


total



-



Total electricity demand profile containing all components above (e-mobility, industry, residential heating, residential sanitary hot water, residential cooling, tertiary heating, tertiary sanitary hot water, tertiary cooling, rest, and exogenous H2 electricity demand), normalized to an annual demand of 10,000,000 in the reference year 2010





Electricity supply profiles for wind (onshore and offshore), hydro (run-of-river), and solar generation are provided for almost all European countries, namely: Andorra (AD), Albania (AL), Austria (AT), Bosnia and Herzegovina (BA), Belgium (BE), Bulgaria (BG), Switzerland (CH), Czech Republic (CZ), Germany (DE), Denmark (DK), Estonia (EE), Spain (ES), Finland (FI), France (FR), United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (GB), Greece (GR), Croatia (HR), Hungary (HU), Republic of Ireland (IE), Italy (IT), Liechtenstein (LI), Lithuania (LT), Luxembourg (LU), Latvia (LV), Montenegro (ME), North Macedonia (MK), Malta (MT), Netherlands (NL), Norway (NO), Poland (PL), Portugal (PT), Romania (RO), Serbia (RS), Sweden (SE), Slovenia (SI), Slovakia (SK), San Marino (SM), Ukraine (UA), Vatican (VA), and Kosovo (XK). The countries covered by the electricity demand profiles are the EU27 countries (except for Cyprus), CH, GB, and NO.

Industrial, heating, and cooling demand profiles are based on regressions developed in the H2020 Hotmaps project [1] [2]. 

SECURES-Energy is available in a tabular csv format for the historical period (1981-2010) created from ERA5 and ERA5-Land and two future emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, both 2011-2100) created from one CMIP5 EURO-CORDEX model (GCM:  ICHEC-EC-EARTH, RCM: KNMI-RACMO22E) on the spatial aggregation level NUTS0 (country-wide).

The data is divided into the historical (Historical.zip) and the two emission scenarios (Future_RCP45.zip and Future_RCP85.zip), a README file, which describes, how the files are organized,  and a folder (Meta.zip), which has information and shapefiles of the different NUTS levels.

Hydro reservoir profiles are also published and can be found in the related dataset SECURES-Met: https://zenodo.org/records/7907883.

The project SECURES and corresponding publications are funded by the Climate and Energy Fund (Klima- und Energiefonds) under project number KR19AC0K17532.

[1]     Fallahnejad M. Hotmaps-data-repository-structure 2019. https://wiki.hotmaps.eu/en/Hotmaps-open-data-repositories.

[2]     Pezzutto S, Zambotti S, Croce S, Zambelli P, Garegnani G, Scaramuzzino C, et al. HOTMAPS - D2.3 WP2 Report – Open Data Set for the EU28. 2019.