DOI: 10.14457/tu.the.2016.680
title: Assessment of Thailand’s energy and environmental policies in buildings and industries: energy and GHG emissions aspects in 2050

description: Thailand’s final energy consumption has been continuously increasing in the demand side. The industrial sector is one of the main energy consuming sectors, and it was accounted for 36.2% of total energy consumption in 2013. In terms of electricity consumption, the building sector is the largest electricity consumption, and it was accounted for 57.9% of total electricity consumption in 2013. The increase of population and economic growth affected energy demand and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Consequently, the aim of this study is to evaluate the long term energy in the building sector and industrial sector during 2005-2050 through perspective of energy saving potential and GHG mitigation features by end use approach, called the Long range Energy Alternative Planning system (LEAP). Energy demands are projected based on various indicators including population, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Gross National Product (GNP), and fuel prices. The Business-as-usual (BAU) scenario is based on the current trend of energy consumption while energy efficiency improvement is excluded. Moreover, the mitigation (MIT) scenario is divided in to three scenarios. The energy efficiency and renewable energy (EE+RE) scenario are introduced by using the existing measures in the EEP2015 and the AEDP2015. The Advance technologies (ADV) scenario will save energy demand by technologies improvement. In the new technologies (N_TECH) scenario, biogas technology is applied in the residential sector and the carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology is applied in industrial sector. The ADV and N_TECH scenarios will be implemented after 2036. In addition, this study also presents energy security by focusing on economic, social, and environmental aspects.Results indicate that the high energy consuming and GHG emission happened in i) the rural area in the residential sector, ii) offices in the commercial sector, and iii) non-metallic industries in the industrial sector. In the EE+RE scenario, most of the energy saving in the residential and commercial sectors come from labeling measures. The energy saving in the industrial sector mostly comes from monetary incentive measures. In case of GHG emission, the residential sector will mitigate GHG emission about 19,617 kt-CO2eq in 2050. The EE+RE scenario, the ADV scenario and the N_TECH scenario will share 44.8% 43.3% 11.1% in GHG mitigation, respectively. In the commercial sector, GHG mitigation will be 61,989 kt-CO2eq. The EE+RE scenario and the ADV scenario will share 91.7% and 8.3% in GHG mitigation. GHG mitigation in the industrial sector will be 199,086 kt-CO2eq in 2050. The EE+RE scenario, the ADV scenario, and the N_TECH scenario will share 81.6%, 2.4% and 16.0% in GHG mitigation, respectively. As results, the study discloses that the EEP2015 and the AEDP2015 in the EE+RE scenario are effective policies to reduce not only energy demand but also GHG emissions in the building sector and the industrial sector. Advance technologies also help reducing energy demand and GHG emissions. In addition, new technologies help mitigating only GHG emissions.