DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.17472490
title: Modelled future evolution of Jostedalsbreen ice cap, Norway

description: This dataset contains the modelled evolution of key glacier variables for Jostedalsbreen ice cap in Norway, as detailed in Åkesson et al. (2025).

The files included are in netcdf (.nc) format, which can be open in many different software such at Python, Matlab, Panoply, NC View, QGIS, ArcGIS, etc.

The output is available for every year, on a 100 m grid, with dimensions (x,y) = (670,610). Note that the true model resolution varied spatially from 100 to 300 m (see Åkesson et al. 2025 for details). The model output available here is grouped as follows:

Simulations 2021-2100



Jost20240813a_modelled_100m_RCP45_2021-2100.nc

Jost20240813e_modelled_100m_RCP85_2021-2100.nc


This modelled ice-cap evolution was produced using the climate model combination ECEARTH/CCLM, using the representative concentration pathways called RCP4.5 (medium emissions) and RCP8.5 (high emissions). The published paper Åkesson et al. (2025) contains additional ice-cap simulations as well, forced by other climate models. Such output can be obtained upon request from the authors.

Simulations 2101-2300



Jost20240508b_modelled_100m_RCP45Commit_2101-2300.nc

Jost20240508c_modelled_100m_RCP85Commit_2101-2300.nc


These simulations quantifies the long-term response of the ice cap to 21st-century climate forcing, what we also call the committed mass loss. The ice-cap model was forced by the modelled surface mass balance averaged over the years 2081-2100, for the two respective RCP scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The climate forcing is thus constant in time.

Variables in each netcdf-file



bedrock_elevation - Bedrock elevation (m a.s.l.) for ice-covered and ice-free areas based on the data in Gillespie et al. (2024) and hoydedata.no

ice_mask - Mask showing modelled ice-covered areas (ice_mask = 1) and ice-free areas (ice_mask = 0). A modelled ice thickness of 10 m is used as threshold for this mask.

surface_modelled - Modelled ice-surface elevation (m a.s.l)

thickness_modelled - Modelled ice thickness (m)

velsurf_modelled - Modelled ice-surface velocity (m/year)

smb_modelled - Modelled surface mass balance (m water equivalent) - note that this is the surface mass balance associated with an evolving ice-surface geometry (includes the surface mass balance - elevation feedback)

time - Model year

X - The x coordinate (m), using the coordinate system UTM32N

Y - The y coordinate (m), using the coordinate system UTM32N


See also this GitHub repository if you're interested in running your own simulations.

References:Please cite the following references if you use this dataset for any purposes.

Åkesson, H., Sjursen, K. H., Vikhamar Schuler, T., Dunse, T., Andreassen, L. M., Kusk Gillespie, M., Robson, B. A., Schellenberger, T., and Clement Yde, J.: Recent history and future demise of Jostedalsbreen, the largest ice cap in mainland Europe, The Cryosphere, 19, 5871–5902, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-5871-2025, 2025.

Åkesson, H., & Sjursen, K. H. (2025). Modelled future evolution of Jostedalsbreen ice cap, Norway [Data set]. In The Cryosphere. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17472491