DOI: 10.3886/icpsr39389
title: Monitoring the Future: Base Year & Follow-up Form 3 Panel Data, Ages 18-30, United States, 1976-2021 [Restricted-Use]
title: Archival Version

description: The MTF study consists of six different survey forms (forms 1-5 began in 1976; form 6 was added in 1989). This study contains the data for Form 3 longitudinal panel participants. The MTF Form 3 Panel dataset includes data for the base year (BY) 12th grade surveys (modal age 18) and their young adult follow-up FU surveys (modal ages 19-30).

In addition to demographic-related questions and questions about lifetime, annual,
and 30-day substance use that are included on all survey forms, Form 3 also
includes questions covering:

Attitudes toward governmental policies and practices Dating and marriage: status, attitudes, expectations Ecological concerns, conservation of resources Happiness; satisfaction with life domains and self Health symptoms, healthy behaviors, COVID-19 Leisure time, including computer, cell phone, and social media use Local and global concerns Methods of marijuana use Own attitudes and perceptions about substance use Parenthood: attitudes, expectations Perceived friends' substance use Perceived risk of substance use Race relations Substance use consequences (alcohol, marijuana/cannabis, other illicit drugs)

NOTE: In 2020, school-based data collection was halted due to
COVID-19. BY sample sizes were affected, and data for some questions on forms 2
and 3 were suppressed. The list of variables affected is found in the 2020
12th grade Codebook available through NAHDAP.
Please see the study documentation available on the MTF Panel
series page for
question-specific details, including content areas included in all survey
forms. NOTE: Researchers are encouraged to begin their work with
the "core" data file, NAHDAP
study 39223.
Please see the User's Guide, IV. Working with the MTF Restricted Panel Data, for details. 
More information about the MTF project can be accessed through
the Monitoring the Future website. Annual
reports are published by the research team, describing the data collection and trends over time.
description: Panel analysis weights
are available and recommended for use with all analyses.
Using the panel analysis
weight allows estimates to weight back to the national 12th grade samples while
accounting for:

the probability of initial selection into the 12th grade
samples,
the fraction of each 12th grade sample not eligible for panel
selection because they did not provide contact information and/or data on
sex
the panel sample selection process including oversampling of
those reporting drug use at base year
panel attrition

Please see the MTF Occasional Paper 98: An Updated Weighting Strategy for the
Monitoring the Future Panel Study, for methodological details on
the creation of the panel analysis weights, and review Supplement Appendix C:
MTF Panel Analysis Weight Selection and Normalization for analytic
examples.
Of note: Beginning with datasets that
include data through 2021, the panel analysis weights are included with each
file. Prior to 2021, the panel analysis weights were available in a separate
dataset which the researcher then merged into their working data sets. Please
see the MTF panel data study NAHDAP 37072 for details.
description: Response Rates: For information regarding panel response
rates, please see the latest MTF annual report.
description: The nationally-representative
base year (BY) cohort
sample (i.e. each high school senior class) was selected using a multistage
area probability sample design involving three selection stages: (1) geographic
areas or primary sampling units (PSUs), (2) schools (or linked groups of
schools) within PSUs, and (3) students within sampled schools.
Each year, 2,450 respondents to
the 12th grade survey were selected for biennial longitudinal follow-up. The
panel sample was selected within school by form and sex, and each base-year
school was required to have a minimum of two follow-up selections
(individuals). The base year sampling weight was factored into the targeted
sample size for each school/form/sex combination. An illicit drug user/nonuser
stratification was created, based on responses to nine base year questions
about 30-day drug use. (An individual was considered a "user" if they
reported any use of LSD, hallucinogens other than LSD, cocaine, amphetamines,
sedatives/barbiturates, tranquilizers, heroin, or narcotics other than heroin,
or used marijuana 20 or more times in the past 30 days.) Illicit drug users
were sampled at a 3-to-1 rate relative to non-users.When the 12th grade respondents
originally selected for follow-up reach age 35, they continue to be surveyed
every five years at ages 35, 40, 45, 50, 55, and 60. Single questionnaires are
presented at each age, covering many of the same topics as the age 19-30
surveys and including additional questions on life events, drug use, and
health. Please see Chapter 1 of the MTF annual panel study report for additional sampling details.
description: Datasets: 
DS1: Monitoring the Future: Base Year & Follow-up Form 3 Panel Data, Ages 18-30, United States, 1976-2021 [Restricted-Use]
description: Young adult follow-up of the U.S. high school seniors in MTF
in the year of the baseline interview. Smallest Geographic Unit: Zip code
description: mail questionnaire; on-site questionnaire; web-based surveyMTF base year/high school surveys were conducted using the following methods:

1976-2018: paper-and-pencil surveys
2019: Randomization of half of the schools to the paper survey; half to a tablet-based survey preloaded with the MTF questionnaires
2020: Tablet surveys; data collection halted Mar. 15, 2020 due to COVID-19
2021+: Web-based surveys administered to all participants.

MTF Panel surveys from 1977-2021, for young adults (ages 19-30) were conducted by using the following methods:

1977-2017: Mailed paper surveys
2018-2019: A random half of all respondents received a mailed paper survey, while the other half were surveyed using a new procedure that encouraged participation using web surveys (web-push)
2020-2021: All respondents were asked to complete a web survey, and the paper survey was an option for those who did not complete the web survey.

More information about the MTF project can be accessed through the Monitoring the Future website. Annual reports are published by the research team, describing the data collection and trends over time.
This study was conducted by the Survey Research Center, Institute for Social Research at the University of Michigan.