DOI: 10.5061/dryad.jwstqjqjw
title: From lagging to leading: Increased phenological asynchrony in a Batesian mimicry complex

description: Climate change disrupts ecological systems by shifting species
 distributions and altering phenological patterns, significantly affecting
 interspecific interactions like Batesian mimicry. Effective mimicry relies
 on the spatial and temporal overlap between mimics and their models to
 deter predators. This idea has persisted despite emerging data that
 challenges it. To assess phenological position and flight season changes,
 we extracted flight season data for model bumblebee species and mimicking
 hoverflies for the Scandinavian peninsula, spanning a little over
 century-and-a-half. We estimated shifts in the annual mean flight season
 and the phenological order of emergence in our Batesian system while
 accounting for yearly survey variations. We found compelling evidence of a
 temporal shift in flight season dynamics in the Batesian system. Mimics
 historically flew significantly earlier than models, but in more recent
 years, there has been a pronounced trend towards mimics flying later than
 models. This temporal decoupling highlights potential impacts on mimicry
 effectiveness, as mismatches with peak model activity periods could
 increase the predation risk for mimics. The shift from mimics emerging
 earlier to models flying earlier is particularly concerning, underscoring
 the fitness consequences of climate-driven changes on ecological
 interactions.  
description: Flight season data (citizen-science observations and museum
 specimens) of model bumblebees and mimic hoverflies was extracted from
 Norwegian Artsdatabanken (https://www.artsdatabanken.no) and Swedish Artportalen (https://artportalen.se/). The data was cleared off records lacking valid species names and duplicate entries; with start and end dates exceeding one month were deemed invalid and excluded from further analysis.
description: # From lagging to leading: Increased phenological asynchrony in a Batesian
 mimicry complex Dataset DOI:
 [10.5061/dryad.jwstqjqjw](10.5061/dryad.jwstqjqjw) ## Description of the
 data and file structure **1) ModelMimics_raw data file**
 *Description: *This Excel spreadsheet contains raw observational data on
 flight times of model bumblebees and their hoverfly mimics, extracted on
 21 June 2023 from two online citizen science and museum specimen
 databases: Norwegian Artsdatabanken
 ([https://www.artsdatabanken.no/](https://www.artsdatabanken.no/)) and
 Swedish Artportalen
 ([https://www.artportalen.se/](https://www.artportalen.se/)) (refer to the
 methods section of the paper).  Data were downloaded, translated where
 necessary (from Norwegian and Swedish), and cleaned for use in our study.
 Please refer to the methods section of the accompanying paper for further
 details on data collection and cleaning protocols. The file contains five
 CSVs, which are described below. ### Files and variables #### **a)
 Artsdatabanken\_mimic 21.06.2023** * Content: Raw records of *mimic
 hoverflies* from Norway. * Notes: Column headings are provided in both
 Norwegian and English. * Variables: | **Column Name (English)** |
 **Description** | | :------------------------ |
 :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | institution | Name of the hosting institution (e.g., museum or database source). | | collection | Name of the collection within the institution. | | IUCN status | Conservation status from IUCN (e.g., Least Concern, Vulnerable, etc.). | | validScientificName | Validated scientific name of the organism. | | taxonGroupName | Taxonomic group the species belongs to (e.g., Syrphidae, Bombus). | | Finder/Collector | Person who found or collected the specimen. | | Date | Date the observation or collection was made (format: DD.MM.YYYY). | | locality | Specific site where the organism was observed. | | coordinate Precision | Precision level of the geographical coordinates. | | municipality | Municipality where the record was made. | | county | County/region of observation. | | individualCount | Number of individuals observed. | | basisOfRecord | Type of record (e.g., human observation, specimen). | | identifiedBy | Person who identified the species. | | validated (Yes/NO) | Whether the record was validated. | | catalogNumber | Internal catalog number for the specimen or record. | | latitude | Latitude coordinate in decimal degrees. | | longitude | Longitude coordinate in decimal degrees. | | East | Eastern UTM coordinate. | | North | Northern UTM coordinate. | | geometry | Geospatial data field (if used). | | behavior | Noted behavior at the time of observation (e.g., flying, resting). | | Photo documentation | Presence of associated photographs. | | dateLastModified | Date of last modification of the record. | | dateLastIdentified | Date the species was last identified. | | occurrenceId | Unique identifier for the occurrence. | | datasetName | Name of the dataset from which this record originates. | | notes | Any additional notes or comments. | | habitat | Description of the habitat where the organism was found. | | Sex | Sex of the individual (if determined). (M=male, F=female,u= arbeider =worker, hann= male drone=queen, dronning=queen) | | otherCatalogNumbers | Any additional catalogue/reference numbers. | | recordNumber | Another identifier, possibly from the source database. | | fieldNumber | Field-specific identifier from data collection. | | Preparation method | Method used for specimen preparation (if applicable). | | dynamicProperties | Additional properties, possibly in JSON or coded format. | | nodeId | Internal database node ID (likely specific to Artsdatabanken). | | Institutional code | Short code representing the institution. | | collectionCode | Short code for the specific collection. | #### **b) Artsdatabanken\_model 21.06.2023** * Content: Raw records of *model bumblebees* from Norway. * Notes: Similar format and structure as file (a). **c) Artportalen_mimic 21.06.2023** * **Content**: Raw records of *mimic hoverflies* from Sweden. * **Notes**: Original Swedish headings translated into English. * **Variables** | **Column Name** | **Description** | | :---------------------- | :--------------------------------------------------------------------- | | Id | Unique internal record ID from Artportalen. | | Taxon Sort Order | Sorting index for taxonomic display/order. | | Validation status | Indicates whether the record has been reviewed or validated. | | Red list | Conservation status (e.g., listed as endangered in Sweden’s red list). | | Taxon id | Taxon identifier used by Artportalen. | | Taxon Name | Common name of the organism (in Swedish). | | Scientific Taxon Name | Full scientific name (e.g., *Bombus terrestris*). | | Auctor | Author who originally described the taxon. | | Quantity | Number of individuals observed. | | Unit | Unit of the quantity (typically “individuals”). | | Stage | Life stage of the organism (e.g., adult, larva). | | Gender | Sex of the individual (if known). | | Activity | Observed behavior (e.g., flying, feeding). | | Discovery method | How the species was observed or collected. | | Parent Site | Broader site region or grouping. | | Site name | Specific site of the observation. | | Longitude | Longitude in decimal degrees. | | Latitude | Latitude in decimal degrees. | | Accuracy | Spatial accuracy of location coordinates (e.g., in meters). | | Diffusion | Spatial extent or spread of location estimate. | | County | Swedish county where the record was made. | | Municipality | Municipality of the record. | | County2 | Secondary county (if relevant). | | Parrish | Local parish of the observation. | | External id | External identifier (if connected to another database). | | Start date | Date the observation began. | | Start time | Time of the start of observation. | | End date | End date of observation (if range-based). | | End time | End time of observation. | | Public comment | Comment visible to the public. | | Private comment | Comment only visible to logged-in users or admins. | | Not recovered | Whether the organism was lost/not collected after observation. | | Uncertain determination | Flag indicating uncertainty in species identification. | | Determination method | Method used to identify the species. | | Unspontaneous | Indicates whether the organism was introduced or planted. | | Biotope | General habitat classification (e.g., forest, meadow). | | Biotope description | Detailed description of habitat or surroundings. | | Determiner | Person who identified the species. | | Determination year | Year the identification was made. | | Confirmator | Person who confirmed the ID (if applicable). | | Confirmation year | Year of confirmation. | | Owner | Owner of the dataset or original observer. | | Submitted by | Person who submitted the record. | | Observers | List of all observers present during the record. | | Link to BOLD/GenBank | URL linking the record to genetic databases (if applicable). | | Project name | Name of the project that generated the record (if any). | **d) Artportalen_model 21.06.2023** * **Content**: Raw records of *model bumblebees* from Sweden. * **Notes**: Follows the same format as (c) **e) NorSwe_usable data** * **Content**: Cleaned, merged, and standardized dataset combining usable records from all four tabs above (Norway and Sweden; model and mimic species) after filtering out queried records (from tabs a-d above) * **Variables**: As explained above. **Notes on Missing Data cells** * Cells marked as** N/A** (not available) indicate that the original source database did not provide any data for that field in the given record. * These missing values reflect gaps in the publicly available biodiversity databases and are not due to data processing or filtering done by the authors. 2\) **ModelMimics** **Description**: This file contains the merged and cleaned observational records from Norway and Sweden. This is the dataset used in all statistical analyses in the accompanying R-code file. * **File Format**: CSV - **Key Columns**: ·       Species: Name of the species ·       Taxon: "Tovinger" (hoverfly mimic) or "Veps" (bumblebee model) ·       Longitude: Decimal degree longitude coordinate ·       Latitude: Decimal degree latitude coordinate ·       Precision: Accuracy level of spatial coordinates ·       count: Total number of individuals observed ·       elevation: Elevation of the observation point (in meters) ·       ordinal: Julian day of the year ·       date: Calendar date of observation ·       year: Year of observation 3\) **R script** - **Bombus 2** **Description**: contains the R scripts used for the analysis  **Note to Users: **We recommend using the ModelMimics data for analyses, as it contains cleaned and harmonized data. For raw, unprocessed data, refer to files  (dataset 1a–e above). ## Code/software All analyses were performed using R version (R Core Team 2022).