DOI: 10.5061/dryad.6hdr7sr7q
title: Modelling 21st-century refugia and the impact of climate change on Amazonia's largest primates

description: Edaphic and vegetation conditions can render climatically suitable sites
 inadequate for a species to persist, constraining the amount of suitable
 habitat and the possibilities of tracking preferred climatic conditions as
 they shift in response to climate change. We combined climatic and
 remotely sensed data to model current and future distributions of nine
 extant taxa of ateline primates across the Amazon basin. We used the
 models to identify and quantify potential range changes and refugia of
 suitable habitats from the present to the latter half of the 21st century.
 We applied an ensemble forecasting approach for species distribution
 models using 596 spatially rarefied occurrences. We parameterised these
 models by combining reflectance data from a basin‐wide Landsat TM/ETM+
 image composite, three sets of bioclimatic layers containing data for the
 current period, and two different (moderate and worst-case) climate change
 scenarios for 2041-2070. Eight out of nine taxa are likely to experience
 pronounced range losses, with seven of them predicted to lose over 50% of
 their currently suitable habitats irrespective of climate change
 scenarios. Modelled ateline richness exhibited a broad decrease in
 high-richness areas and a possible redistribution along the northernmost
 parts of western Amazonia. Refugia from 21st-century climate change for
 the whole complex was mostly concentrated in western Amazonia, especially
 in its southern part. We identified hotspots of vulnerability to climate
 change and 21st-century refugia for all Amazonian atelines while
 accounting for habitat characteristics that are important to guarantee the
 continued existence of suitable habitats for these strictly arboreal taxa.
 Increasing the understanding of climate change impacts on Amazonia's
 largest primates can help to inform spatial conservation planning
 decisions and management to sustain forest-dwelling biodiversity over
 large areas such as Amazonia.
description: # Modelling 21st-century refugia and the impact of climate change on
 Amazonia's largest primates
 [https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.6hdr7sr7q](https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.6hdr7sr7q) This repository contains the occurrence data and the R script for multi-species distribution modeling with complete parameter implementation settings. It also includes interactive maps of hotspots of vulnerability to climate change and 21st-century refugia for the nine extant taxa of atelines across the Amazon basin until the mid-21st century (2041-2070). The study was based on an ensemble forecasting approach for species distribution models, combining climatic and remotely sensed data. The dynamic and interactive maps are user-friendly, openly accessible, and designed for ease of use by decision-makers and conservation managers. ## Contents of the Repository CSV: Occurrence data R script: This R script is used for the multi-species distribution modelling with the parameter implementation settings. Moderate scenario: HTML file containing interactive maps of hotspots of vulnerability to climate change and 21st-century refugia for each taxon under a moderate scenario of climate change. Worst scenario: HTML file containing interactive maps of hotspots of vulnerability to climate change and 21st-century refugia for each taxon under a worst-case scenario of climate change. ## Additional Information The interactive maps are easily accessible for researchers and decision-makers. To access the maps, simply download the HTML files to launch a web-based map visualization (see example_map.png figure in upload). The maps feature a range of components that can be used as background, such as Esri.World Imagery and OpenStreetMap, allowing for easy assessment of the study's findings.