DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.17776243
title: Linguistic Capture: Diaspora Leverage and Property Rights in Haiti

description: Online Appendix: Empirical Limitations and Alternative Implementation Pathways

SUMMARY: This dataset analyzes Haiti's 78.8% property rights collapse (2013-2025) despite French-exclusive legal institutions excluding 95% Kreyòl-speakers. We document that diaspora remittance conditioning (theoretical payoff: \$4.75B annually) has zero historical precedents, and propose Congressional aid conditionality as practical alternative.

CONTENTS: IPRI panel data (2007-2025), Haiti remittances (2000-2023), DHS household survey (N=15,513), geographic shapefiles, replication code.

IMPACT: Provides actionable blueprint for Haitian diaspora to lobby US Congress, with draft legislation and monitoring framework.

A. The Absence of Precedent: What Diaspora Actually Do

A.1 Systematic Literature Review

We conducted systematic searches for documented cases of diaspora communities successfully using coordinated remittance conditioning to force institutional reform in their countries of origin. Our search encompassed:





Remittance-dependent countries with diaspora populations exceeding 15% of GDP (N=29)




Historical cases of diaspora political mobilization (1990-2025)




Academic literature on diaspora engagement and transnational activism




Policy reports from World Bank, IOM, Migration Policy Institute, and regional development banks



Finding: We identified zero documented cases of successful coordinated remittance conditioning for institutional reform.

A.2 What Diaspora Communities Actually Do

The evidence reveals three primary modes of diaspora political engagement, none of which involve remittance conditioning:

Mode 1: Lobbying Host Country Governments

The Armenian diaspora provides the clearest example of effective political organization. The Armenian National Committee of America (ANCA) was instrumental in lobbying for funds used for demining and humanitarian aid in Artsakh and developmental assistance in Armenia, led the charge in pressuring President Biden to officially recognize the Armenian Genocide, and leads a coalition to restrict Turkey's access to F16 upgrades and acquisition of new F35 warplanes.

Critically, these achievements operate through HOST country political systems, not through conditioning remittances to Armenia. Armenian-Americans leverage their voting power in California and Massachusetts to influence US foreign policy, not their remittance power to influence Armenian domestic policy.

Mode 2: Hometown Associations and Development Projects

El Salvador demonstrates the most developed diaspora engagement infrastructure in the Western Hemisphere. Salvadoran hometown associations (HTAs) can directly affect top-down governance by pressuring elected authorities to increase vertical measures of accountability and by promoting cooperation and transparency. However, this operates through cooperative development partnerships, not remittance threats.

The Salvadoran government actively cultivates diaspora engagement. The Directorate General of Attention for the Community Abroad was inaugurated under the 1999-2004 presidency of Francisco Flores, with a 2002 document "Towards a Strategy for the 21st Century of Integration and Linking with the Salvadoran Community Abroad" identifying Salvadoran migrants abroad as "clients" and referring to the need to develop a state policy that offers consular activities informed by a "spirit of service".

This represents the exact opposite dynamic from what our theoretical model proposes: governments court diaspora for INCREASED engagement and remittances, not respond to conditional reductions.

Mode 3: Humanitarian Response to Family Needs

Haiti exemplifies this pattern most starkly. The impact of the diaspora is felt in Haiti primarily through its contribution in remittances, much of which is almost exclusively linked to meeting personal and family needs. When Haiti faces crises, diaspora response INCREASES transfers rather than conditioning them.

After Haiti's 2010 earthquake, Haitians were plundering their bank accounts, cashing out their 401K retirement savings accounts, maxing out credit cards, and holding fundraisers to send more money home. This humanitarian imperative directly contradicts the logic of remittance conditioning: when conditions worsen, diaspora cannot reduce transfers without abandoning vulnerable family members.

A.3 The Trust Deficit

Even when diaspora organize, coordination with home governments remains elusive due to deep mistrust. For Haiti specifically: There is a lack of trust between the Haitian State and the diaspora. Members of the diaspora may be discouraged from investing due to political instability and perception of corruption. Past issues with foreign involvement have created a lack of confidence and mistrust. The existing mistrust and lack of collaboration diminishes the ability to coordinate effectively.

Armenia faces similar challenges. Disappointment is prevalent in Armenia-Diaspora relations. The Diaspora has disappointed Armenia's political leadership by not coming together as a united force that willingly subordinates itself to the oligarchic state. Both sides expect subordination rather than partnership, preventing the mutual coordination our model requires.

A.4 When Governments Attempt to Extract from Remittances

The few cases where governments attempted to tax or redirect remittances illuminate diaspora response patterns. Haiti's President Martelly proposed taxing wire transfers and international calls, estimated to collect anywhere from \$50 to \$180 million for education. However, absent results showing that money otherwise going to Haitian families is producing public benefit, political support will erode, and the diaspora will find ways to send remittances outside of taxed channels.

More recently, the Haitian Bridge Alliance expressed deep concern over the proposed 5% remittance tax included in the "One Big Beautiful Bill," calling it "legalized extortion targeting Black, Brown, and immigrant families".

Diaspora mobilization occurs to PROTECT remittance flows from government extraction, not to use those flows as leverage for reform. This fundamentally inverts the mechanism we propose.

B. Why Coordination Fails: Structural Barriers Beyond Collective Action

B.1 The Humanitarian Override

Our game-theoretic model in Section IV.B assumes diaspora can credibly threaten remittance reductions. This assumption fails to account for the humanitarian character of remittance relationships. Research demonstrates that deteriorating socioeconomic conditions and upticks in political corruption can spur incoming remittance transfers, as individuals abroad seek to assist their families in increasingly precarious times, as observed in one study covering 22 sub-Saharan African countries from 1994 to 2015.

When institutional conditions worsen—precisely when our model predicts diaspora should reduce remittances to pressure reform—empirical evidence shows remittances INCREASE as humanitarian impulses override strategic calculations. This creates adverse selection: the worse conditions become, the less feasible remittance conditioning becomes, meaning the mechanism operates most weakly precisely when it would matter most.

Our data confirm this pattern in Haiti. As documented in our dataset (Zenodo DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.17808931), Haiti's IPRI score declined from 3.40 in 2013 to 0.72 in 2025—a 78.8% collapse representing the 2nd worst property rights environment globally among 126 countries. Yet during this same period, remittances increased from \$2.0 billion (2013) to \$3.90 billion (2023). The correlation is inverse to what remittance conditioning requires: as institutions deteriorated, remittances increased.

B.2 Government Substitution Capacity

Our baseline model (Section IV.B.1) assumes governments facing remittance reductions must choose between reform and fiscal crisis. This neglects government capacity to substitute alternative revenue sources.

Mexico provides recent evidence: Following statements and policy directives by the Trump administration targeting unauthorized immigrants, remittances to Mexico declined by nearly 6 percent over the first eight months of 2025. This represents a \$1.8 billion reduction (from ~\$30 billion baseline)—yet Mexico did not implement institutional reforms in response. The government absorbed the fiscal shock through other mechanisms.

For Haiti specifically, our paper notes Chinese loans of \$229 million (2010-2017), IMF facilities, and potential narco-trafficking revenues as substitutes. While these have limits, they are sufficient to buffer short-term remittance reductions, allowing governments to wait out diaspora pressure.

B.3 Elite Capture Extends Transnationally

Our analysis of Haiti's notarial elite (Section III) documents how French-educated elites control domestic institutions. However, we inadequately address how these same elites often dominate diaspora organizations.

French-educated Haitians who emigrate become diaspora leaders precisely because they possess linguistic and cultural capital valued in both Haiti and host countries. They establish hometown associations, coordinate with Haitian consulates, and shape diaspora political discourse. Yet they also benefit from maintaining French-language exclusivity in Haiti—it's their competitive advantage.

This creates principal-agent problems our model ignores: the diaspora "agents" who would need to coordinate remittance conditioning may have personal interests in preserving the status quo. A diaspora organization led by French-educated professionals is unlikely to prioritize Kreyòl accessibility that would eliminate their informational advantages.

B.4 Demonstrated Preference Against Coordination

The most damning evidence against our mechanism: despite optimal conditions, coordination has never been attempted.

El Salvador satisfies all scope conditions for successful remittance conditioning (Section VI.B.1):





24% of GDP in remittances (higher than Haiti's 21%)




Democratic host country (USA) enabling coordination




Concentrated diaspora in Los Angeles, Washington DC, Houston




Functional government capable of rational response




Clear institutional problems (gang violence, corruption)



Yet in 35+ years since massive Salvadoran emigration began (1980s civil war), diaspora have NEVER attempted coordinated remittance conditioning. Instead, they built hometown associations, lobbied US Congress, and sent humanitarian aid. The revealed preference—when diaspora face no coordination costs except collective action—is humanitarian engagement, not coercive conditioning.

If El Salvador's diaspora, with better conditions than Haiti's, has never attempted this mechanism, what probability should we assign to Haiti's diaspora pioneering it?

C. Data Sources and Replication Materials

C.1 Dataset Description

All data and analytical code supporting this research are publicly available via Zenodo (DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.17808931) under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license. The repository includes:

International Property Rights Index (IPRI) Data (2007-2025)





Complete panel data for Haiti and Dominican Republic




19 Latin American countries for regional comparison




Variable: Physical Property Rights (0-10 scale)




Source: Property Rights Alliance, with special acknowledgment to Lorenzo Montanari, Executive Director



Haiti Remittance Data (2000-2023)





Annual remittance inflows (USD billions)




Remittances as percentage of GDP




Remittances as percentage of government budget




Source: World Bank Migration and Remittances Data



Haiti Government Budget Data (2013-2023)





Annual government revenue (USD billions)




Comparison to remittance flows




Source: World Bank and Haiti Ministry of Finance



Dominican Republic Human Rights Documentation





2021 Human Rights Report (US State Department)




Documentation of property rights denial to stateless persons




Analysis of IPRI decline correlation



Jupyter Notebook





Complete analytical methodology




Replication code for all statistical analyses




Game theory calculations




Visualization code for all figures



C.2 Key Empirical Findings

Haiti's Property Rights Collapse (2013-2025)

Haiti's IPRI Physical Property Rights score declined from 3.40 in 2013 to 0.72 in 2025—a 78.8% collapse over 12 years. This places Haiti as the 2nd lowest ranking country globally among 126 countries measured in 2025, ahead only of Yemen (0.25), a nation experiencing active civil war.

This deterioration occurred despite—and during—peak international donor engagement. Between 2013 and 2020, Haiti received approximately \$1.4 billion in World Bank assistance alone, with substantial portions directed to governance reform and property rights strengthening. The inverse relationship between donor investment and institutional outcomes demonstrates systematic failure of traditional aid conditionality.

Dominican Republic's Recent Decline (2021-2022)

The Dominican Republic experienced a precipitous decline in its IPRI score from 6.50 in 2021 to 4.51 in 2022—a 30.6% drop in a single year. This dramatic deterioration coincides with documented systematic denial of property ownership rights to stateless persons of Haitian descent, as detailed in the US State Department's "Dominican Republic 2021 Human Rights Report."

This correlation between discriminatory property rights practices and measured IPRI decline validates the index's sensitivity to actual property rights access rather than merely formal legal frameworks. The DR maintained French-/Spanish-vernacular legal systems throughout, suggesting that linguistic accessibility provides necessary but not sufficient conditions for property rights protection when discriminatory implementation targets vulnerable populations.

Haiti's Remittance Dependence (2013-2023)

Haiti's remittance inflows grew from \$2.0 billion in 2013 to \$3.90 billion in 2023—a 95% increase over the decade. Critically, remittances as a share of government budget increased from approximately 120% (2013) to 156% (2023), reflecting both remittance growth and government budget stagnation.

The \$3.90 billion in 2023 remittances represents:





156% of Haiti's \$2.5 billion government budget




Approximately 24% of Haiti's GDP




30 times the \$128 million in annual notarial rents documented in Section III



This scale differential creates the theoretical leverage our game-theoretic model exploits: diaspora control resources exceeding elite rents by a factor of 30, while providing capital flows 56% larger than total government revenues.

Game Theory Payoff Structure

Our model (Section IV.B.1) calculates the payoff differential favoring reform at \$4.75 billion annually, equivalent to 190% of Haiti's government budget. This derives from:





Preserved remittances under reform: \$3.90 billion




Lost remittances under status quo (30% reduction): \$1.17 billion




Elite rents eliminated under reform: \$128 million




Implementation costs: \$65 million




Net annual benefit to reform: \$3.90B - \$0.128B - \$0.065B = \$3.71B




Net annual cost of status quo: -\$1.17B + \$0.128B = -\$1.04B




Differential: \$3.71B - (-\$1.04B) = \$4.75B (190% of budget)



This payoff structure suggests overwhelming rational incentives for reform—yet reform has not occurred for 38 years since constitutional adoption. The empirical absence of reform despite theoretical optimality motivates our investigation of why diaspora coordination fails (Section B) and what alternative mechanisms might succeed (Section C.3).

C.3 Replication and Extensions

Researchers can replicate all analyses using the Jupyter Notebook provided in the Zenodo repository. The notebook includes:





Data cleaning and preparation code




Panel regression specifications (Section II)




Haiti-Dominican Republic comparative analysis




Within-Haiti geographic heterogeneity analysis (DHS data)




Game theory payoff calculations




All figures and tables in the main manuscript



Extensions might explore:





Time-series analysis of remittance-IPRI correlations across all 29 remittance-dependent countries




Event studies of natural experiments (earthquakes, political transitions)




Simulation of alternative game-theoretic parameters




Cross-country analysis of diaspora political organization patterns



D. The Alternative Mechanism: Host Country Aid Conditionality

D.1 Theoretical Foundation

We propose refocusing from REMITTANCE leverage (where diaspora send money to Haiti) to POLITICAL leverage (where diaspora vote in the United States). This mechanism operates through three steps:

Step 1: Diaspora organizations coordinate in the United States to lobby Congress, not coordinate across borders to reduce remittances. This reduces coordination costs by 90%: organizing voters in Miami, New York, and Boston is vastly easier than organizing remitters across 50 states and multiple countries.

Step 2: Congress conditions US foreign assistance to Haiti on verified Kreyòl-language reforms. The United States provides approximately \$600 million annually to Haiti in various forms (humanitarian assistance, development programs, security cooperation). Unlike diaspora remittances flowing to families, US aid flows to the Haitian government and can be withheld without humanitarian consequences to individual families.

Step 3: Diaspora organizations perform independent monitoring and verification, reporting to Congress quarterly on implementation progress. This solves the verification problem that plagued previous donor conditionality.

D.2 Precedents for Success

This mechanism has documented precedents:

Armenian Genocide Recognition: The Armenian National Committee of America led the charge in pressuring President Biden to officially recognize the Armenian Genocide. This demonstrates diaspora capacity to influence US policy when operating through HOST country political systems.

El Salvador TPS and Aid: While Salvadoran diaspora haven't conditioned remittances, they have successfully lobbied for Temporary Protected Status extensions and influenced US aid policy through Congressional testimony and constituent pressure.

Jewish Diaspora and Israel Aid: Though not directly analogous (Israel differs from captured states), the American Jewish community demonstrates multi-generational capacity to maintain Congressional attention on foreign aid conditionality through constituent organizing.

D.3 Why This Succeeds Where Remittance Conditioning Fails

Coordination advantages:





Diaspora coordinate in ONE country (USA) with unified legal/political system




Established organizations (HDPAC, Haitian Bridge Alliance) already exist




Electoral pressure on Congress requires threshold of approximately 50,000 organized voters in key districts, far below the millions needed for remittance coordination



Credibility advantages:





Congress CAN credibly withhold aid (appropriations process, oversight mechanisms)




No humanitarian override (aid goes to government, not families)




Multi-year commitment feasible (Congressional appropriations cycle institutionalizes pressure)



Verification advantages:





Diaspora monitoring focuses on OBSERVABLE metrics (number of Kreyòl court proceedings, notarial fee schedules, language of legal documents)




Congress has institutional capacity for oversight hearings, GAO investigations




Independent verification by diaspora provides ground-truth accountability that traditional donor monitoring lacks



Scale advantages: The \$600 million in annual US assistance, while smaller than the \$3.90 billion in diaspora remittances, is sufficient to create meaningful fiscal pressure. A 50% reduction in US aid (\$300 million) represents 12% of Haiti's \$2.5 billion government budget—comparable to the fiscal shock our remittance conditioning model assumed, but without requiring coordinated action by millions of individual remitters.

D.4 Implementation Blueprint

Phase 1: Coalition Building (Months 1-6)

Form a unified Haitian diaspora coalition for institutional reform, consolidating existing organizations (HDPAC, Haitian Bridge Alliance, hometown associations, professional networks). Establish consensus around three core demands:





Kreyòl-language legal proceedings: All Haitian courts must conduct proceedings in Kreyòl or provide simultaneous translation, with 75% compliance within 24 months




Bilingual property documentation: All property registration documents, title deeds, and notarial certificates must be available in Kreyòl




Notarial fee caps: Maximum notarial fees of \$50 per transaction (currently \$200-300)



Unlike remittance coordination requiring 2-3 million diaspora to reduce family transfers, THIS requires approximately 50 organizational leaders to agree on policy language. The collective action problem is reduced by orders of magnitude.

Phase 2: Congressional Outreach (Months 6-12)

Target key Congressional committees:





House Foreign Affairs Committee (Western Hemisphere Subcommittee)




Senate Foreign Relations Committee (Western Hemisphere Subcommittee)




House and Senate Appropriations Subcommittees for State and Foreign Operations



Identify champion legislators from districts with significant Haitian populations:





Florida: Representatives Frederica Wilson (FL-24), Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (FL-20)




New York: Representatives Hakeem Jeffries (NY-8), Yvette Clarke (NY-9)




Massachusetts: Representative Ayanna Pressley (MA-7)



Draft legislative language for Haiti foreign assistance appropriations:

SEC. ___. HAITI LINGUISTIC ACCESSIBILITY CONDITION.

(a) LIMITATION.—Of the funds appropriated under this heading for assistance to Haiti, not more than 50 percent may be obligated until the Secretary of State certifies to the Committees on Appropriations that the Government of Haiti has—

(1) conducted at least 75 percent of court proceedings in Haitian Kreyòl or with simultaneous Kreyòl translation;

(2) made all property registration documents, title deeds, and notarial certificates available in Haitian Kreyòl; and

(3) established and enforced maximum notarial fees not exceeding \$50 per transaction.

(b) MONITORING AND VERIFICATION.—The Secretary shall base certification under subsection (a) on quarterly monitoring reports submitted by [designated diaspora monitoring organization], which shall conduct independent verification through:

(1) direct observation of court proceedings in all 10 Haitian departments;

(2) attempted property registration transactions conducted exclusively in Haitian Kreyòl; and

(3) surveys of notarial fees across urban and rural areas.

(c) WAIVER.—The Secretary may waive the limitation under subsection (a) if the Secretary determines that such waiver is in the national security interest of the United States and reports to Congress the reasons for such determination.

Phase 3: Monitoring Infrastructure (Months 12-18)

Establish the Haiti Institutional Reform Monitoring Project (HIRMP) with three components:

Component 1: Ground-Level Verification

Network of 20 Haitian attorneys (Kreyòl-speaking, certified by Haitian Bar) conducting quarterly assessments:





Court monitoring: Attend 100 randomly selected court proceedings per quarter across all 10 departments, documenting:






Language used by judges, attorneys, witnesses




Availability of Kreyòl translation




Accessibility of legal documents in Kreyòl





Property registration testing: Attempt 50 property registration transactions per quarter, exclusively in Kreyòl, documenting:






Whether service is available without French




Time required for processing




Fees charged




Quality of Kreyòl documentation provided





Notarial fee surveys: Collect fee schedules from 200 notaries across urban/rural areas, documenting:






Stated fees for standard transactions




Actual fees charged (through test transactions)




Variations by region and client language




Component 2: Quantitative Scorecards

HIRMP maintains publicly accessible database tracking:





Kreyòl court proceedings (Target: 75% by Month 24)






Baseline (Month 0): <5% (estimated based on current practice)




Progress milestones: 25% (Month 12), 50% (Month 18), 75% (Month 24)





Kreyòl legal documents (Target: 100% availability by Month 18)






Baseline: 0% (French-only currently)




Progress milestones: 50% (Month 9), 100% (Month 18)





Notarial fees (Target: <\$50 average by Month 12)






Baseline: \$200-300




Progress milestones: <\$150 (Month 6), <\$100 (Month 9), <\$50 (Month 12)




Component 3: Congressional Reporting

HIRMP submits quarterly reports to House Foreign Affairs Committee and Senate Foreign Relations Committee including:





Executive summary (2 pages): Overall compliance status, key developments




Detailed metrics (10 pages): All scorecard data with statistical analysis




Case studies (5 pages): Specific examples of compliance/non-compliance




Recommendations (3 pages): Next steps for Congressional oversight



Format enables Congressional staff to quickly assess compliance for certification decisions.

Phase 4: Sustained Pressure and Iteration (Years 2-5)

The key advantage of Congressional conditionality over remittance conditioning: it operates through institutionalized appropriations cycles that repeat annually. Once language is included in one appropriations bill, it can be maintained or strengthened in subsequent years.

Year 2: If Haiti achieves 75% compliance, maintain conditionality but reduce to 25% withheld (rather than 50%) to reward progress while maintaining pressure for complete implementation.

Year 3: If full compliance achieved and sustained, convert from withholding mechanism to positive incentive mechanism: additional \$100 million in development assistance conditional on maintaining reforms.

Year 4-5: Transition to spot-check monitoring (quarterly reduced to annually) with automatic reinstatement of conditionality if compliance falls below 90%.

This multi-year trajectory mirrors successful Congressional conditionality on other human rights issues (Colombia Plan Colombia certification, Egypt military aid), demonstrating institutional precedent for sustained pressure through appropriations cycles.

D.5 Advantages Over Traditional Donor Conditionality

Section III.C documents why traditional donor reforms failed despite \$1.4 billion investment (2013-2020). Our Congressional conditionality mechanism addresses these failures:

Problem 1: Donors lack credible enforcement because institutional mandates require continued engagement regardless of reform outcomes.

Solution: Congress faces no such constraint. If Haiti fails to comply, the 50% withholding automatically occurs through the appropriations process. No need for World Bank to "maintain relationships" or avoid "jeopardizing access" for other projects.

Problem 2: Donor verification relies on government-provided data or consultant assessments that elites can manipulate.

Solution: Diaspora-led verification through HIRMP involves direct testing (attempting Kreyòl-only transactions, attending court proceedings) that cannot be faked. Ground-truth accountability.

Problem 3: Donor timeframes (3-5 year project cycles) mismatch institutional change timelines.

Solution: Congressional appropriations cycles repeat annually, enabling sustained pressure over decades if necessary. Armenia diaspora maintained genocide recognition pressure for 100+ years.

Problem 4: Donor resources flow through Haitian government channels, creating capture opportunities.

Solution: Monitoring budget (\$2-3 million annually for HIRMP) flows directly to diaspora organization, bypassing Haitian government entirely. No capture possible.

Problem 5: Donor conditionality typically includes many diffuse objectives (governance, anticorruption, judiciary reform), making verification impossible.

Solution: Our mechanism focuses on THREE concrete, measurable objectives (Kreyòl courts, Kreyòl documents, fee caps). Binary compliance assessment possible.

D.6 Limitations and Risks

Honest assessment requires acknowledging where this mechanism might fail:

Risk 1: Haiti's Government Chooses Aid Loss Over Reform

If Haiti's oligarchic elite values French-language monopoly more than \$300 million in US aid, conditionality fails. However, our game-theoretic analysis (Section IV.B.1) suggests this is unlikely: the \$128 million in annual notarial rents represents a small fraction of the \$300 million at stake. Rational elites should accept reform.

Counter-risk: Haiti's elite may not be "rational" in economic sense. If French-language exclusivity carries symbolic/status value beyond economic rents, elites might accept fiscal pain. Venezuelan regime accepted economic collapse rather than political reform, demonstrating authoritarian resilience.

Mitigation: Phase 4 positive incentives (\$100 million additional aid for sustained compliance) create rewards alongside punishments, increasing probability of rational response.

Risk 2: Coordination Failure Among Diaspora Organizations

While coordinating 50 organizational leaders is easier than coordinating 2-3 million remitters, it still requires overcoming institutional rivalries, ideological differences, and leadership conflicts. HDPAC and Haitian Bridge Alliance may have different priorities or strategies.

Mitigation: Focus on MINIMAL winning coalition (3-5 major organizations) rather than universal diaspora consensus. Congressional champions need credible diaspora backing, not unanimous support.

Risk 3: Congressional Attention Span

Haiti competes with dozens of foreign policy priorities for Congressional attention. Without sustained constituent pressure, appropriations language may be dropped in subsequent years.

Mitigation: Electoral accountability. Haitian-Americans represent approximately 1.2 million US residents, concentrated in districts where they can influence electoral outcomes. Representatives from FL-24, NY-9, MA-7 ignore Haitian constituents at electoral peril.

Risk 4: Humanitarian Crises Override Conditionality

If earthquakes, hurricanes, or political violence create humanitarian emergencies, Congress may waive conditionality (Section D.4 waiver provision) to enable emergency response. This creates moral hazard: Haiti's government might allow crises to escalate, expecting conditionality suspension.

Mitigation: Waiver provision requires Secretary of State determination that waiver serves "national security interest" and report to Congress explaining rationale. This creates procedural hurdles that prevent automatic waiver, while preserving flexibility for genuine emergencies.

Risk 5: Cosmetic Compliance

Haiti might create Kreyòl "windows" at courts and notaries while maintaining French as primary language, achieving nominal compliance without substantive reform.

Mitigation: HIRMP verification through attempted transactions (not just documentation review) reveals gaps between nominal and actual compliance. If Kreyòl-only speakers still cannot navigate property registration, quarterly reports document this, preventing certification despite cosmetic changes.

E. Conclusion: Theoretical Contribution and Practical Limitations

Our paper makes an important theoretical contribution: identifying diaspora economic leverage as a latent mechanism for constitutional enforcement in captured states. The game-theoretic payoff differential (\$4.75 billion annually, 190% of Haiti's budget) demonstrates overwhelming rational incentives for reform.

However, honest empirical assessment reveals that this mechanism has never been successfully implemented, and structural barriers to coordination make direct remittance conditioning unlikely to succeed. The humanitarian character of remittances, demonstrated preference for engagement over coercion, and transnational extension of elite capture all suggest diaspora will not—and perhaps cannot—withhold family support to pressure institutional reform.

The alternative mechanism—Congressional aid conditionality with diaspora monitoring—addresses coordination failures while preserving diaspora political capital. By operating through HOST country political systems rather than requiring coordinated action across millions of remitters, this approach reduces collective action costs by orders of magnitude.

Success remains uncertain. But unlike remittance conditioning (zero documented precedents, 38 years of non-implementation in Haiti despite optimal conditions), Congressional conditionality has documented precedents in Armenia diaspora advocacy, established institutional channels (appropriations process), and aligned incentives (electoral accountability for Congressional representatives with Haitian constituents).

If Haiti's diaspora attempts institutional reform advocacy, this Online Appendix suggests they should focus political organizing energy on Capitol Hill rather than remittance coordination. The leverage is real, the mechanisms exist, and the precedents demonstrate feasibility. What remains is mobilization—a challenge for diaspora leadership, not academic analysis.

Data Availability: All data, code, and materials are publicly available at Zenodo (DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.17808931) under CC-BY 4.0 license.