DOI: 10.5061/dryad.h18931zz2
title: The importance of quantifying selection climates: Predictable and unpredictable variation in predation risk and the implications for prey responses

description: Prey behavioural traits within a population are commonly variable,
 unexpectedly so, given that predation is thought to be a strong selection
 pressure. This variation likely arises from complex, variable selection
 pressures, but experimental evaluations of prey responses to natural
 variability in selection pressures remain limited. We focus on the
 rock-pool breeding mosquito Aedes vexans, which can influence the
 predation risk to its offspring through site selection for oviposition. We
 quantified the nature of selection pressures in the wild, i.e., the
 spatial and temporal variation in larval predation risk, by measuring
 densities of predatory dragonfly nymphs in rock pools along the mosquito
 breeding season. To examine the implication of selection pressure regimes
 for the evolution of oviposition site selection, we conducted manipulative
 experiments and measured female oviposition responses to variation in
 predation risk. Predation risk varied extensively over space and time;
 this variation showed both predictable and unpredictable elements. Females
 avoided large pools with permanent predators but appear to show variable
 responses to medium-sized pools with unpredictable predation risk. We
 suggest that while it might be challenging to quantify complex selection
 environments and their impact on wild prey responses, more such studies
 can help explain puzzling variation in anti-predator responses.
description: # The importance of quantifying selection climates: Predictable and
 unpredictable variation in predation risk and the implications for prey
 responses Dataset DOI: [10.5061/dryad.h18931zz2](10.5061/dryad.h18931zz2)
 ## Description of the data and file structure Oviposition responses were
 measured only from experimental pools. Oviposition responses were counted
 as the number of eggs laid in the pools on the ovistrips placed along the
 walls of the pools. Pools were either given a treatment of control or
 predator. The experiment was done during the mosquito breeding season from
 July to December. Predation risk was measured across pools along the
 mosquito breeding season. For sampling predators (nymphs of *Bradinopyga
 geminata*), we removed them from the pools and placed them in a container.
 The nymphs were counted and then added back to the pools. Details can be
 found in the ESM. Please note that the empty cells in the predator column
 indicate that the sampling could not be conducted as the pool was dried.
 These are treated as "NA" values. ### Files and variables ####
 File: Oviposition\_responses.csv **Description:**  ##### Variables *
 pool_ID: Identity of the pool - modelled as a random effect * date: date
 of egg collection * session: each session represented a block, which
 consisted of multiple days during which eggs were collected * predator:
 number of predators added to the pool * perimeter_cm: perimeter of the
 pool calculated using ImageJ * ovistrip_ID: identity of the ovistrip, as
 pools were lined with multiple ovistrips covering half the perimeter *
 eggcount: number of eggs laid by Aedes vexans on each ovistrip, i.e., main
 response variable * egg_sum: sum of eggs from ovistrips in the same pool *
 season: categorical variable with two levels - pre-diapause and diapause
 season * background_predation: categorical variable with two levels - low
 and high * egg_den: egg_sum divided by total length of ovistrips, i.e.,
 half of the pool perimeter #### File: Predation\_risk.csv
 **Description:**  ##### Variables * pool_id: Identity of pools *
 depth_inch: pool depth measured by dipping a scale in the pool * sa_inch:
 pool surface area calculated using ImageJ * peri_inch: perimeter of the
 pool calculated using Image J * vol_inch: pool volume estimated by
 multiplying depth_inch and sa_inch - derived column from depth and sa *
 peri_cm: perimeter of the pool converted to cm from inches * month: month
 of sampling * date: date of sampling * predator: number of predators ##
 Code/software All analyses were done in R version 4.2.2. The Code.R file
 has all the supporting code for statistical modelling of predation risk
 and oviposition responses. This file also has the code to generate all the
 figures in the main manuscript. The code file is split into three sections
 - section 1 is on modelling adult behavioural responses using the
 Oviposition*_*responses.csv file; section 2 is on modelling the predation
 risk using the Predation_risk.csv file; and section 3 is code for making
 all the figures.