cometadata/datacite-titles-descriptions-related-identifiers huggingface dataset:
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.7678148
title: Are currency depreciation processes expansionary or contractionary in Brazil? An assessment of the effect of private sector foreign exchange mismatch

description: ABSTRACT This paper deals with the evolution of the currency mismatch in the Brazilian economy in the last two decades, with the aim of assessing the vulnerability of the economy to an exchange rate devaluation, through the balance sheet effect. We highlight the deep changes in the structure of the Brazilian external liabilities during that period. The main change was the radical fall in the net external debt, which turned from highly positive to negative. However, this reflects only the public sector position, since private external debt remained highly positive. To go further into our analysis, we subtracted the hedge operations through derivatives contracts from the primary currency mismatch. We then arrived at the conclusion that not only the effective private sector currency mismatch is quite lower than could be thought by looking only at the International Investment Position data, but also that it has diminished substantially in the last 5 years. Therefore, the risk of an important balance sheet effect as a consequence of a devaluation is lower than currently estimated.
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.7678148.v1
title: Are currency depreciation processes expansionary or contractionary in Brazil? An assessment of the effect of private sector foreign exchange mismatch

description: ABSTRACT This paper deals with the evolution of the currency mismatch in the Brazilian economy in the last two decades, with the aim of assessing the vulnerability of the economy to an exchange rate devaluation, through the balance sheet effect. We highlight the deep changes in the structure of the Brazilian external liabilities during that period. The main change was the radical fall in the net external debt, which turned from highly positive to negative. However, this reflects only the public sector position, since private external debt remained highly positive. To go further into our analysis, we subtracted the hedge operations through derivatives contracts from the primary currency mismatch. We then arrived at the conclusion that not only the effective private sector currency mismatch is quite lower than could be thought by looking only at the International Investment Position data, but also that it has diminished substantially in the last 5 years. Therefore, the risk of an important balance sheet effect as a consequence of a devaluation is lower than currently estimated.
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.7677503
title: The New Developmentalism and the challenge for 2019: to overcome the structural stagnation of the Brazilian economy

description: ABSTRACT This paper relates the differences and the similarities between the classic developmentalism and the New Developmentalism. It discusses the next steps for the new theory to persevere in the current Brazilian context. To this end, a diagnosis of what we call “Accidental Developmentalism”, initiated at the end of the 19th century in Brazil, was also made in the first part of the paper, which was sown as a basis for the classic developmentalism. Effectively put in place between 1930 and 1980, developmentalism was later adopted again during the failed economic policy of Dilma Rousseff administration. Finally, we discuss the challenges for the New Developmentalism having the critical 2018 elections as background.
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.7677503.v1
title: The New Developmentalism and the challenge for 2019: to overcome the structural stagnation of the Brazilian economy

description: ABSTRACT This paper relates the differences and the similarities between the classic developmentalism and the New Developmentalism. It discusses the next steps for the new theory to persevere in the current Brazilian context. To this end, a diagnosis of what we call “Accidental Developmentalism”, initiated at the end of the 19th century in Brazil, was also made in the first part of the paper, which was sown as a basis for the classic developmentalism. Effectively put in place between 1930 and 1980, developmentalism was later adopted again during the failed economic policy of Dilma Rousseff administration. Finally, we discuss the challenges for the New Developmentalism having the critical 2018 elections as background.
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.7676783
title: War and international trade: Impact of trade disruption on international trade patterns and economic development

description: ABSTRACT The disruptions of trade flows due to military conflicts leads to changes in economic structures of countries, to the subsequent changes in trade policies, and to the changes of established trade patterns with impact on position of countries in international trade system. This paper deals with three modern time’s conflicts: Napoleonic Wars, WWI and WWII. We argue that the changes resulting from the disruption of trade flows itself, leads to changes and shifts which are relatively permanent, independent on outcomes of the conflicts for individual countries, and do significantly affect regions which did not take part in the conflict.
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.7676783.v1
title: War and international trade: Impact of trade disruption on international trade patterns and economic development

description: ABSTRACT The disruptions of trade flows due to military conflicts leads to changes in economic structures of countries, to the subsequent changes in trade policies, and to the changes of established trade patterns with impact on position of countries in international trade system. This paper deals with three modern time’s conflicts: Napoleonic Wars, WWI and WWII. We argue that the changes resulting from the disruption of trade flows itself, leads to changes and shifts which are relatively permanent, independent on outcomes of the conflicts for individual countries, and do significantly affect regions which did not take part in the conflict.
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.19964756
title: USA’s trade policy in the context of global crisis and the decline of North American hegemony

description: ABSTRACT The global crisis of 2007 reinforced the deflationary tendencies, as well as the withdrawal of the central countries inwards. After the Great Recession 2008-2009, most economies have experienced semi-stagnation and deglobalization processes. The crisis accelerated the decline of the hegemony of the United States. While they retain an overwhelming military advantage and maintain financial hegemony, they have lost ground in production, in international trade and in direct foreign investment. Trump’s trade policy will accelerate deglobalization. And while its tax cut has had a short-term positive effect on growth, it will be difficult to overcome “secular stagnation”.
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.19964756.v1
title: USA’s trade policy in the context of global crisis and the decline of North American hegemony

description: ABSTRACT The global crisis of 2007 reinforced the deflationary tendencies, as well as the withdrawal of the central countries inwards. After the Great Recession 2008-2009, most economies have experienced semi-stagnation and deglobalization processes. The crisis accelerated the decline of the hegemony of the United States. While they retain an overwhelming military advantage and maintain financial hegemony, they have lost ground in production, in international trade and in direct foreign investment. Trump’s trade policy will accelerate deglobalization. And while its tax cut has had a short-term positive effect on growth, it will be difficult to overcome “secular stagnation”.
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.19964758
title: Commodity prices shocks and the Brazilian economy in the 2000s

description: ABSTRACT This paper evaluates how falling commodity prices affected the Brazilian economy during the 2000s. In order to fulfill this objective two different statistical methods were used, the Markov Switching Dynamic Regression model with structural component and the Vector Autoregression (VAR) model. With respect to the level of activities, it was found that about 1/3 of the economic slowdown post 2014 could be attributed to the change in the commodities prices regime.
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.19964758.v1
title: Commodity prices shocks and the Brazilian economy in the 2000s

description: ABSTRACT This paper evaluates how falling commodity prices affected the Brazilian economy during the 2000s. In order to fulfill this objective two different statistical methods were used, the Markov Switching Dynamic Regression model with structural component and the Vector Autoregression (VAR) model. With respect to the level of activities, it was found that about 1/3 of the economic slowdown post 2014 could be attributed to the change in the commodities prices regime.
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.19964759
title: Inequalities and capital accumulation in China

description: ABSTRACT This article contributes to the debate on income and wealth distribution in China by analyzing the main characteristics of the Chinese accumulation pattern that determine its distributive dynamics in a comparative perspective. After a period of rapid growth of inequalities, coupled with improved living conditions for all distribution deciles, inequalities have stabilized in China since the mid-2000s. Globally, China is today in a distributive pattern worse than Western Europe or Japan, but it is more egalitarian than the United States and far from the world inequality frontier defined by Brazil, India, South Africa and the Middle East. In this article, we scrutinize three characteristics of the regime of accumulation in China that mitigate the capital-concentrating tendency: 1. the financialization process with Chinese characteristics, 2. the strategic share of State ownership in the economy, 3. its trajectory over the agrarian question.
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.19964759.v1
title: Inequalities and capital accumulation in China

description: ABSTRACT This article contributes to the debate on income and wealth distribution in China by analyzing the main characteristics of the Chinese accumulation pattern that determine its distributive dynamics in a comparative perspective. After a period of rapid growth of inequalities, coupled with improved living conditions for all distribution deciles, inequalities have stabilized in China since the mid-2000s. Globally, China is today in a distributive pattern worse than Western Europe or Japan, but it is more egalitarian than the United States and far from the world inequality frontier defined by Brazil, India, South Africa and the Middle East. In this article, we scrutinize three characteristics of the regime of accumulation in China that mitigate the capital-concentrating tendency: 1. the financialization process with Chinese characteristics, 2. the strategic share of State ownership in the economy, 3. its trajectory over the agrarian question.
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.19964761
title: Economic globalization in the global post-crisis of 2008: limits and deadlocks

description: ABSTRACT Economic globalization has entered a new phase of relative stagnation and cooling since the beginning of the global crisis of 2008. The main objective of this article is to examine the dynamics that explain the stagnation of the economic globalization process from the beginning of the global crisis of 2008. The initial results indicate that the process of stagnation of global forces is not only related to a scenario of lower economic growth of the global economy after 2008, but also reflects mainly political dynamics within national states and the international system itself that have a direct impact on the phenomenon of economic globalization.
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.19964761.v1
title: Economic globalization in the global post-crisis of 2008: limits and deadlocks

description: ABSTRACT Economic globalization has entered a new phase of relative stagnation and cooling since the beginning of the global crisis of 2008. The main objective of this article is to examine the dynamics that explain the stagnation of the economic globalization process from the beginning of the global crisis of 2008. The initial results indicate that the process of stagnation of global forces is not only related to a scenario of lower economic growth of the global economy after 2008, but also reflects mainly political dynamics within national states and the international system itself that have a direct impact on the phenomenon of economic globalization.
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.19964762
title: Historical performance of BNDES: what can data tell us?

description: ABSTRACT This paper has three objectives. First, to investigate the sectoral composition of Brazilian Development Bank (BNDES) loans since 1952, based on the institution’s financing track record throughout its history. BNDES was created to be the bank of national infrastructure and did, in fact, played this role in its first decade of existence. However, from the 1960’s onwards, the major part of the bank’s loans was directed towards the industrial sector, even if in a decreasing manner along the course of time. Only in the 2010 decade did infrastructure return to be the focus of the bank’s loans. The second objective consists in analyzing the size of the Bank relative to Brazilian aggregate investment and to GDP. The data shows that the institution significantly increased its size in the first decade of the 2000’s, especially between 2009 and 2014, when it surpassed the size observed in the seventies, a period marked by the II PND. The third objective is to decompose BNDES loans by the size of the companies since 1990. Data reveals that big companies have been less and less - and not more, as common sense indicates - benefited by BNDES credit. This means that small and medium companies (SMEs) have gained an increasing share of BNDES loans in the last thirty years.
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.19964762.v1
title: Historical performance of BNDES: what can data tell us?

description: ABSTRACT This paper has three objectives. First, to investigate the sectoral composition of Brazilian Development Bank (BNDES) loans since 1952, based on the institution’s financing track record throughout its history. BNDES was created to be the bank of national infrastructure and did, in fact, played this role in its first decade of existence. However, from the 1960’s onwards, the major part of the bank’s loans was directed towards the industrial sector, even if in a decreasing manner along the course of time. Only in the 2010 decade did infrastructure return to be the focus of the bank’s loans. The second objective consists in analyzing the size of the Bank relative to Brazilian aggregate investment and to GDP. The data shows that the institution significantly increased its size in the first decade of the 2000’s, especially between 2009 and 2014, when it surpassed the size observed in the seventies, a period marked by the II PND. The third objective is to decompose BNDES loans by the size of the companies since 1990. Data reveals that big companies have been less and less - and not more, as common sense indicates - benefited by BNDES credit. This means that small and medium companies (SMEs) have gained an increasing share of BNDES loans in the last thirty years.
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.10026059
title: The role of the State in fostering innovation activity: case studies of the USA and Germany

description: ABSTRACT The present study analyzed the role of the State in fostering innovation in the USA and Germany. It was argued that governments in these countries play an active role in innovation, but each one operates with dissimilar objectives and tools, to stimulate and induce innovation activity in companies. Some specific cases of innovation policies in each country were analyzed to demonstrate the performance of the public power in different contexts. It was concluded that innovation policy is flexible and adaptable to each context, but the active role of the State stands out in both countries.
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.10026059.v1
title: The role of the State in fostering innovation activity: case studies of the USA and Germany

description: ABSTRACT The present study analyzed the role of the State in fostering innovation in the USA and Germany. It was argued that governments in these countries play an active role in innovation, but each one operates with dissimilar objectives and tools, to stimulate and induce innovation activity in companies. Some specific cases of innovation policies in each country were analyzed to demonstrate the performance of the public power in different contexts. It was concluded that innovation policy is flexible and adaptable to each context, but the active role of the State stands out in both countries.
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.11900385
title: The geoeconomics of the empire and the mutations of the capital: the two cycles of US economic expansion in the late twentieth century

description: ABSTRACT This paper was written in 2003-04 and aims to investigate the two cycles of US economic expansion in the late of the 20th Century and the 2001 financial crisis. For this purpose, it starts an examination of the mutations of the capital since the 1970s. In the end, it analyzes the international context and the changes in the US hegemony nature at the beginnings of the 21st Century.
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.11900385.v1
title: The geoeconomics of the empire and the mutations of the capital: the two cycles of US economic expansion in the late twentieth century

description: ABSTRACT This paper was written in 2003-04 and aims to investigate the two cycles of US economic expansion in the late of the 20th Century and the 2001 financial crisis. For this purpose, it starts an examination of the mutations of the capital since the 1970s. In the end, it analyzes the international context and the changes in the US hegemony nature at the beginnings of the 21st Century.
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.11900448.v1
title: The consequences of the international financial crisis and the great recession in Argentina and Brazil

description: ABSTRACT The 2007-2008 international financial crisis (IFC) and the ‘Great Recession’ (GR) had worldwide effects. In the case of Argentina and Brazil, the reduction and improvement in composition of public external debt, the previous policy of international reserves accumulation combined with left-wing political affinity between governments, provided some space for countercyclical macroeconomic policies. Consequently, its governments were able to face the IFC and GR without following traditional tightened or pro-cyclical macroeconomic policies. This article examines the consequences of the IFC and the GR in Argentina and Brazil and the countercyclical macroeconomic policies that were implemented during the period 2009-2014.
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.11900448
title: The consequences of the international financial crisis and the great recession in Argentina and Brazil

description: ABSTRACT The 2007-2008 international financial crisis (IFC) and the ‘Great Recession’ (GR) had worldwide effects. In the case of Argentina and Brazil, the reduction and improvement in composition of public external debt, the previous policy of international reserves accumulation combined with left-wing political affinity between governments, provided some space for countercyclical macroeconomic policies. Consequently, its governments were able to face the IFC and GR without following traditional tightened or pro-cyclical macroeconomic policies. This article examines the consequences of the IFC and the GR in Argentina and Brazil and the countercyclical macroeconomic policies that were implemented during the period 2009-2014.
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.11900481
title: Chinese industrialization from the New-Developmental perspective

description: ABSTRACT The main objective of this paper is to present a synthesis of the Chinese industrialization and evaluate if the New-Developmental Theory is capable of explaining the transformation in its industrial structure. In order to do so, first will be presented a brief review of the New-Developmental Theory; next, through a historical perspective, we’ll describe the Chinese industrialization exposing the convergence points with the theory. Finally, we conclude that the theory is adequate to explain the success of the Chinese industrialization.
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.11900481.v1
title: Chinese industrialization from the New-Developmental perspective

description: ABSTRACT The main objective of this paper is to present a synthesis of the Chinese industrialization and evaluate if the New-Developmental Theory is capable of explaining the transformation in its industrial structure. In order to do so, first will be presented a brief review of the New-Developmental Theory; next, through a historical perspective, we’ll describe the Chinese industrialization exposing the convergence points with the theory. Finally, we conclude that the theory is adequate to explain the success of the Chinese industrialization.
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.11900397
title: New starting point(s): Marx, technological revolutions and changes in the centre-periphery divide

description: ABSTRACT This paper presents the last book that Marx excerpted in his life: La Physique Moderne, written by Hospitalier and published in 1882. This last Notebook (B156, in the IISG’s archives) contains hints of other issues that he was researching in his last years, especially societies at the periphery. This combination of issues - an emerging technological revolution and societies at the periphery - may contribute to a better understanding of connections between technological revolutions and the centre-periphery divide. Technological revolutions, sources of new starting points, have been shaping and reshaping the structure of that divide, its nature and structure.
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.11900397.v1
title: New starting point(s): Marx, technological revolutions and changes in the centre-periphery divide

description: ABSTRACT This paper presents the last book that Marx excerpted in his life: La Physique Moderne, written by Hospitalier and published in 1882. This last Notebook (B156, in the IISG’s archives) contains hints of other issues that he was researching in his last years, especially societies at the periphery. This combination of issues - an emerging technological revolution and societies at the periphery - may contribute to a better understanding of connections between technological revolutions and the centre-periphery divide. Technological revolutions, sources of new starting points, have been shaping and reshaping the structure of that divide, its nature and structure.
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.11900484
title: Foreign savings and Brazilian economic growth: an analysis of two disparate views

description: ABSTRACT The aim of this article is to analyze empirically a dichotomy in the economic literature. The classical view claims that growth with foreign savings is feasible and viable, while a line of critical thinking advocates that foreign capital inflows affect domestic investments only in the short run, being irrelevant for long run growth. The bounds testing ARDL approach to cointegration is applied from 1999:4 to 2017:4. Estimation results show that foreign savings does not appear to explain the Brazilian economic growth in the long run, which is more in line with the understanding of the critical view.
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.11900484.v1
title: Foreign savings and Brazilian economic growth: an analysis of two disparate views

description: ABSTRACT The aim of this article is to analyze empirically a dichotomy in the economic literature. The classical view claims that growth with foreign savings is feasible and viable, while a line of critical thinking advocates that foreign capital inflows affect domestic investments only in the short run, being irrelevant for long run growth. The bounds testing ARDL approach to cointegration is applied from 1999:4 to 2017:4. Estimation results show that foreign savings does not appear to explain the Brazilian economic growth in the long run, which is more in line with the understanding of the critical view.