DOI: 10.5061/dryad.7vj03
title: Data from: Increased local retention of reef coral larvae as a result of ocean warming

description: Climate change will alter many aspects of the ecology of organisms,
 including dispersal patterns and population connectivity. Understanding
 these changes is essential to predict future species distributions,
 estimate potential for adaptation, and design effective networks of
 protected areas. In marine environments, dispersal is often accomplished
 by larvae. At higher temperatures, larvae develop faster, but suffer
 higher mortality, making the effect of temperature on dispersal difficult
 to predict. Here, we experimentally calibrate the effect of temperature on
 larval survival and settlement in a dynamic model of coral dispersal. Our
 findings imply that most reefs globally will experience several-fold
 increases in local retention of larvae due to ocean warming. This increase
 will be particularly pronounced for reefs with mean water residence times
 comparable to the time required for species to become competent to settle.
 Higher local retention rates strengthen the link between abundance and
 recruitment at the reef scale, suggesting that populations will be more
 responsive to local conservation actions. Higher rates of local retention
 and mortality will weaken connectivity between populations, and thus
 potentially retard recovery following severe disturbances that
 substantially deplete local populations. Conversely, on isolated reefs
 that are dependent on replenishment from local broodstock, increases in
 local retention may hasten recovery.
description: Larvae of Cyphastrea
 japonica swimming in the end of the experiment"age" is the
 larval age (h) at the end of experiment, "temp" is the
 temperature larvae were raised at; "rep" is the replicate
 number; "swim" is the number of larvae swimming in the end of
 the experiment; "larvae" is the number of larvae in the
 beginning of the experiment; "propswim" is the proportion of
 larvae swimming at the end of the experiment, calculated as
 "swim"/"larvae".LSCyphastrea.csvLarvae of Favites stylifera swimming in the end of the experiment"age" is the larval age (h) at the end of experiment, "temp" is the temperature larvae were raised at; "rep" is the replicate number; "swim" is the number of larvae swimming in the end of the experiment; "larvae" is the number of larvae in the beginning of the experiment; "propswim" is the proportion of larvae swimming at the end of the experiment, calculated as "swim"/"larvae".LSFavites.csvLarvae of Acropora millepora swimming in the end of the experiment"age" is the larval age (h) at the end of experiment, "temp" is the temperature larvae were raised at; "rep" is the replicate number; "swim" is the number of larvae swimming in the end of the experiment; "larvae" is the number of larvae in the beginning of the experiment; "propswim" is the proportion of larvae swimming at the end of the experiment, calculated as "swim"/"larvae".LSMillepora.csvMetamorphosis of Cyphastrea japonica at different temperatures"age" is larval age (h); "temp" is temperature; "rep" is the replicate number; "meta" is the number of larvae that metamorphosed that day; "larvae" is the number of larvae used to start the experiment; "cum" is the cumulative number of larvae that have metamorphosed until that day; "propmeta" is the proportion of larvae that have metamorphosed that day, calculated as "meta"/"larvae"; "propcum" is the cumulative proportion of larvae that have metamorphoses, calculated as "cum"/"larvae"MCyphastrea.csvMetamorphosis of Favites stylifera at different temperatures"age" is larval age (h); "temp" is temperature; "rep" is the replicate number; "meta" is the number of larvae that metamorphosed that day; "larvae" is the number of larvae used to start the experiment; "cum" is the cumulative number of larvae that have metamorphosed until that day; "propmeta" is the proportion of larvae that have metamorphosed that day, calculated as "meta"/"larvae"; "propcum" is the cumulative proportion of larvae that have metamorphoses, calculated as "cum"/"larvae"MFavites.csvMetamorphosis of Acropora millepora at different temperatures"age" is larval age (h); "temp" is temperature; "rep" is the replicate number; "meta" is the number of larvae that metamorphosed that day; "larvae" is the number of larvae used to start the experiment; "cum" is the cumulative number of larvae that have metamorphosed until that day; "propmeta" is the proportion of larvae that have metamorphosed that day, calculated as "meta"/"larvae"; "propcum" is the cumulative proportion of larvae that have metamorphoses, calculated as "cum"/"larvae"MMillepora.csvLarval survival of Cyphastrea japonica at different temperatures"temp" is the temperature the larvae were raised in; "age" is the larval age (h), "surv" is the number of larvae alive (swimming as no settlement cue was provided), "larvae" is the number of embryo/larvae in the beginning of the experiment; "propsurv" is the proportion of larvae alive, calculated as "surv"/"larvae"SCyphastrea.csvLarval survival of Favites stylifera at different temperatures"temp" is the temperature the larvae were raised in; "age" is the larval age (h), "surv" is the number of larvae alive (swimming as no settlement cue was provided), "larvae" is the number of embryo/larvae in the beginning of the experiment; "propsurv" is the proportion of larvae alive, calculated as "surv"/"larvae"SFavites.csvLarval survival of Acropora millepora at different temperatures"temp" is the temperature the larvae were raised in; "age" is the larval age (h), "surv" is the number of larvae alive (swimming as no settlement cue was provided), "larvae" is the number of embryo/larvae in the beginning of the experiment; "propsurv" is the proportion of larvae alive, calculated as "surv"/"larvae"SMillepora.csvR code to produce Figure 1: Proportion of surviving larvae in absence of settlement cues, and proportion of larvae settled and swimming at the end of the experiment in presence of settlement cues for Cyphastrea japonica, Favites stylifera and Acropora millepora at 27, 29 and 31oC .R code to produce Figure 1 where observations and model predictions are compared. This code includes the estimate of survival and competence parameters for all species.Fig1.txtR code to produce Figure 2: Relative increase in the proportion of larvae that attain competence while retained on the natal reef over a realistic range of mean residence times around a reef with a 2 and 4°C increaseR code to produce Figure 2, including estimating of all parameters for all species, local retention and relative increase in local retention.Fig 2.txtR code to produce Figure 3: Schematic of the proportion of potential settlers for reefs with short, intermediate and long mean residence timesProportion of potential settlers (live larvae not yet flushed from the reef) for reefs with short (1 day, light blue), intermediate (2.5 days, dark blue) and long (10 days, green) mean residence times, using estimates for A. millepora (Table S2). In A&B, mortality rate is equal for all reefs (λ27), and the vertical distance between the dashed lines represents the increased proportion of potential settlers due to the reduction in the minimum time to competence from tc27 to tc31. In C&D, minimum competence time is fixed at tc27, and mortality rate is low on the top (λ27) and higher on the bottom (λ31) of each shaded band; thus, the vertical distance between the dashed lines shows the reduction in the proportion of potential settlers due to the increased mortality rate.Fig 3 with A. millepora parameter estimates.txt