cometadata/datacite-titles-descriptions-related-identifiers huggingface dataset:
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.11744442.v2
title: Optimal Tradeoffs in Matched Designs Comparing US-Trained and Internationally Trained Surgeons

description: Does receiving a medical education outside the United States impact a surgeon’s performance? We study this question by matching operations performed by internationally trained surgeons to those performed by US-trained surgeons in reanalysis of a large health outcomes study. An effective matched design must achieve several goals, including balancing covariate distributions marginally, ensuring units within individual pairs have similar values on key covariates, and using a sufficiently large sample from the raw data. Yet in our study, optimizing some of these goals forces less desirable results on others. We address such tradeoffs from a multi-objective optimization perspective by creating matched designs that are Pareto optimal with respect to two goals. We provide general tools for generating representative subsets of Pareto optimal solution sets and articulate how they can be used to improve decision-making in observational study design. In the motivating surgical outcomes study, formulating a multi-objective version of the problem helps us balance an important variable without sacrificing two other design goals, average closeness of matched pairs on a multivariate distance and size of the final matched sample. Supplementary materials for this article, including a standardized description of the materials available for reproducing the work, are available as an online supplement.
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.11891445
title: Estimating the Effects of Fine Particulate Matter on 432 Cardiovascular Diseases Using Multi-Outcome Regression With Tree-Structured Shrinkage

description: The positive relationship between airborne fine particulate matter (PM<sub>2.5</sub>) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) is established. Little is known about effect size heterogeneity across distinct CVD outcomes. We conducted a multi-outcome case-crossover study of Medicare beneficiaries aged &gt;65 years residing in the mainland USA from 2000 through 2012. The exposure was two-day average PM<sub>2.5</sub> in each individual’s residential zipcode. The outcomes were hospitalization for 432 distinct CVDs defined by the International Classification of Diseases, Revision 9. Our dataset included almost 24 million CVD hospitalizations. We analyzed the data using multi-outcome regression with tree-structured shrinkage (MOReTreeS), a novel method that enables: (1) borrowing of strength across outcomes; (2) data-driven discovery of outcome groups that are similarly affected by the exposure; (3) estimation of a single effect for each group. MOReTreeS grouped 420 outcomes together; for this group, the odds ratio [OR] for hospitalization associated with a 10 <i>μ</i>g m<sup>− 3</sup> increase in PM<sub>2.5</sub> was 1.011 (95% credible interval [CI] = 1.011–1.012). The model identified congestive heart failure as having the strongest positive association with PM<sub>2.5</sub> (OR = 1.019; 95%CI = 1.017–1.022). Some outcomes exhibited negative associations with PM<sub>2.5</sub>, including aortic dissection, subarachnoid and intracerebral hemorrhage, abdominal aneurysm, and essential hypertension; further research is needed to understand these counterintuitive findings. Supplementary materials for this article, including a standardized description of the materials available for reproducing the work, are available as an online supplement.
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.11744442
title: Optimal Tradeoffs in Matched Designs Comparing US-Trained and Internationally Trained Surgeons

description: Does receiving a medical education outside the United States impact a surgeon’s performance? We study this question by matching operations performed by internationally trained surgeons to those performed by US-trained surgeons in reanalysis of a large health outcomes study. An effective matched design must achieve several goals, including balancing covariate distributions marginally, ensuring units within individual pairs have similar values on key covariates, and using a sufficiently large sample from the raw data. Yet in our study, optimizing some of these goals forces less desirable results on others. We address such tradeoffs from a multi-objective optimization perspective by creating matched designs that are Pareto optimal with respect to two goals. We provide general tools for generating representative subsets of Pareto optimal solution sets and articulate how they can be used to improve decision-making in observational study design. In the motivating surgical outcomes study, formulating a multi-objective version of the problem helps us balance an important variable without sacrificing two other design goals, average closeness of matched pairs on a multivariate distance and size of the final matched sample. Supplementary materials for this article, including a standardized description of the materials available for reproducing the work, are available as an online supplement.
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.9976901
title: Cross-Validation With Confidence

description: Cross-validation is one of the most popular model and tuning parameter selection methods in statistics and machine learning. Despite its wide applicability, traditional cross-validation methods tend to overfit, due to the ignorance of the uncertainty in the testing sample. We develop a novel statistically principled inference tool based on cross-validation that takes into account the uncertainty in the testing sample. This method outputs a set of highly competitive candidate models containing the optimal one with guaranteed probability. As a consequence, our method can achieve consistent variable selection in a classical linear regression setting, for which existing cross-validation methods require unconventional split ratios. When used for tuning parameter selection, the method can provide an alternative trade-off between prediction accuracy and model interpretability than existing variants of cross-validation. We demonstrate the performance of the proposed method in several simulated and real data examples. Supplemental materials for this article can be found online.
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.11744442.v1
title: Optimal tradeoffs in matched designs comparing US-trained and internationally-trained surgeons

description: Does receiving a medical education outside the United States impact a surgeon’s performance? We study this question by matching operations performed by internationally-trained surgeons to those performed by US-trained surgeons in reanalysis of a large health outcomes study. An effective matched design must achieve several goals, including balancing covariate distributions marginally, ensuring units within individual pairs have similar values on key covariates, and using a sufficiently large sample from the raw data. Yet in our study, optimizing some of these goals forces less desirable results on others. We address such tradeoffs from a multi-objective optimization perspective by creating matched designs that are Pareto optimal with respect to two goals. We provide general tools for generating representative subsets of Pareto optimal solution sets and articulate how they can be used to improve decision-making in observational study design. In the motivating surgical outcomes study, formulating a multi-objective version of the problem helps us balance an important variable without sacrificing two other design goals, average closeness of matched pairs on a multivariate distance and size of the final matched sample. Keywords: matching; Pareto optimality; fine balance; network flow optimization; multi-objective optimization.
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.10250864
title: Nonparametric Bayesian Instrumental Variable Analysis: Evaluating Heterogeneous Effects of Coronary Arterial Access Site Strategies

description: Percutaneous coronary interventions (PCIs) are nonsurgical procedures to open blocked blood vessels to the heart, frequently using a catheter to place a stent. The catheter can be inserted into the blood vessels using an artery in the groin or an artery in the wrist. Because clinical trials have indicated that access via the wrist may result in fewer post procedure complications, shortening the length of stay, and ultimately cost less than groin access, adoption of access via the wrist has been encouraged. However, patients treated in usual care are likely to differ from those participating in clinical trials, and there is reason to believe that the effectiveness of wrist access may differ between males and females. Moreover, the choice of artery access strategy is likely to be influenced by patient or physician unmeasured factors. To study the effectiveness of the two artery access site strategies on hospitalization charges, we use data from a state-mandated clinical registry including 7963 patients undergoing PCI. A hierarchical Bayesian likelihood-based instrumental variable analysis under a latent index modeling framework is introduced to jointly model outcomes and treatment status. Our approach accounts for unobserved heterogeneity via a latent factor structure, and permits nonparametric error distributions with Dirichlet process mixture models. Our results demonstrate that artery access in the wrist reduces hospitalization charges compared to access in the groin, with a higher mean reduction for male patients. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.10029476
title: The Statistical Face of a Region Under Monsoon Rainfall in Eastern India

description: A region under rainfall is a contiguous spatial area receiving positive precipitation at a particular time. The probabilistic behavior of such a region is an issue of interest in meteorological studies. A region under rainfall can be viewed as a shape object of a special kind, where scale and rotational invariance are not necessarily desirable attributes of a mathematical representation. For modeling variation in objects of this type, we propose an approximation of the boundary that can be represented as a real valued function, and arrive at further approximation through functional principal component analysis, after suitable adjustment for asymmetry and incompleteness in the data. The analysis of an open access satellite dataset on monsoon precipitation over Eastern Indian subcontinent leads to explanation of most of the variation in shapes of the regions under rainfall through a handful of interpretable functions that can be further approximated parametrically. The most important aspect of shape is found to be the size followed by contraction/elongation, mostly along two pairs of orthogonal axes. The different modes of variation are remarkably stable across calendar years and across different thresholds for minimum size of the region. Supplementary materials for this article, including a standardized description of the materials available for reproducing the work, are available as an online supplement.
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.11339462
title: Bayesian Scalar on Image Regression With Nonignorable Nonresponse

description: Medical imaging has become an increasingly important tool in screening, diagnosis, prognosis, and treatment of various diseases given its information visualization and quantitative assessment. The aim of this article is to develop a Bayesian scalar-on-image regression model to integrate high-dimensional imaging data and clinical data to predict cognitive, behavioral, or emotional outcomes, while allowing for nonignorable missing outcomes. Such a nonignorable nonresponse consideration is motivated by examining the association between baseline characteristics and cognitive abilities for 802 Alzheimer patients enrolled in the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative 1 (ADNI1), for which data are partially missing. Ignoring such missing data may distort the accuracy of statistical inference and provoke misleading results. To address this issue, we propose an imaging exponential tilting model to delineate the data missing mechanism and incorporate an instrumental variable to facilitate model identifiability followed by a Bayesian framework with Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms to conduct statistical inference. This approach is validated in simulation studies where both the finite sample performance and asymptotic properties are evaluated and compared with the model with fully observed data and that with a misspecified ignorable missing mechanism. Our proposed methods are finally carried out on the ADNI1 dataset, which turns out to capture both of those clinical risk factors and imaging regions consistent with the existing literature that exhibits clinical significance. Supplementary materials for this article, including a standardized description of the materials available for reproducing the work, are available as an online supplement.
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.9976901.v3
title: Cross-Validation With Confidence

description: Cross-validation is one of the most popular model and tuning parameter selection methods in statistics and machine learning. Despite its wide applicability, traditional cross-validation methods tend to overfit, due to the ignorance of the uncertainty in the testing sample. We develop a novel statistically principled inference tool based on cross-validation that takes into account the uncertainty in the testing sample. This method outputs a set of highly competitive candidate models containing the optimal one with guaranteed probability. As a consequence, our method can achieve consistent variable selection in a classical linear regression setting, for which existing cross-validation methods require unconventional split ratios. When used for tuning parameter selection, the method can provide an alternative trade-off between prediction accuracy and model interpretability than existing variants of cross-validation. We demonstrate the performance of the proposed method in several simulated and real data examples. Supplemental materials for this article can be found online.
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.10029476.v1
title: The Statistical Face of a Region Under Monsoon Rainfall in Eastern India

description: A region under rainfall is a contiguous spatial area receiving positive precipitation at a particular time. The probabilistic behavior of such a region is an issue of interest in meteorological studies. A region under rainfall can be viewed as a shape object of a special kind, where scale and rotational invariance are not necessarily desirable attributes of a mathematical representation. For modeling variation in objects of this type, we propose an approximation of the boundary that can be represented as a real valued function, and arrive at further approximation through functional principal component analysis, after suitable adjustment for asymmetry and incompleteness in the data. The analysis of an open access satellite dataset on monsoon precipitation over Eastern Indian subcontinent leads to explanation of most of the variation in shapes of the regions under rainfall through a handful of interpretable functions that can be further approximated parametrically. The most important aspect of shape is found to be the size followed by contraction/elongation, mostly along two pairs of orthogonal axes. The different modes of variation are remarkably stable across calendar years and across different thresholds for minimum size of the region. Supplementary materials for this article, including a standardized description of the materials available for reproducing the work, are available as an online supplement.
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.10250864.v2
title: Nonparametric Bayesian Instrumental Variable Analysis: Evaluating Heterogeneous Effects of Coronary Arterial Access Site Strategies

description: Percutaneous coronary interventions (PCIs) are nonsurgical procedures to open blocked blood vessels to the heart, frequently using a catheter to place a stent. The catheter can be inserted into the blood vessels using an artery in the groin or an artery in the wrist. Because clinical trials have indicated that access via the wrist may result in fewer post procedure complications, shortening the length of stay, and ultimately cost less than groin access, adoption of access via the wrist has been encouraged. However, patients treated in usual care are likely to differ from those participating in clinical trials, and there is reason to believe that the effectiveness of wrist access may differ between males and females. Moreover, the choice of artery access strategy is likely to be influenced by patient or physician unmeasured factors. To study the effectiveness of the two artery access site strategies on hospitalization charges, we use data from a state-mandated clinical registry including 7963 patients undergoing PCI. A hierarchical Bayesian likelihood-based instrumental variable analysis under a latent index modeling framework is introduced to jointly model outcomes and treatment status. Our approach accounts for unobserved heterogeneity via a latent factor structure, and permits nonparametric error distributions with Dirichlet process mixture models. Our results demonstrate that artery access in the wrist reduces hospitalization charges compared to access in the groin, with a higher mean reduction for male patients. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.10042760
title: Empirical Frequency Band Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series

description: The time-varying power spectrum of a time series process is a bivariate function that quantifies the magnitude of oscillations at different frequencies and times. To obtain low-dimensional, parsimonious measures from this functional parameter, applied researchers consider collapsed measures of power within local bands that partition the frequency space. Frequency bands commonly used in the scientific literature were historically derived, but they are not guaranteed to be optimal or justified for adequately summarizing information from a given time series process under current study. There is a dearth of methods for empirically constructing statistically optimal bands for a given signal. The goal of this article is to provide a standardized, unifying approach for deriving and analyzing customized frequency bands. A consistent, frequency-domain, iterative cumulative sum based scanning procedure is formulated to identify frequency bands that best preserve nonstationary information. A formal hypothesis testing procedure is also developed to test which, if any, frequency bands remain stationary. The proposed method is used to analyze heart rate variability of a patient during sleep and uncovers a refined partition of frequency bands that best summarize the time-varying power spectrum. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.9976901.v2
title: Cross-Validation With Confidence

description: Cross-validation is one of the most popular model and tuning parameter selection methods in statistics and machine learning. Despite its wide applicability, traditional cross-validation methods tend to overfit, due to the ignorance of the uncertainty in the testing sample. We develop a novel statistically principled inference tool based on cross-validation that takes into account the uncertainty in the testing sample. This method outputs a set of highly competitive candidate models containing the optimal one with guaranteed probability. As a consequence, our method can achieve consistent variable selection in a classical linear regression setting, for which existing cross-validation methods require unconventional split ratios. When used for tuning parameter selection, the method can provide an alternative trade-off between prediction accuracy and model interpretability than existing variants of cross-validation. We demonstrate the performance of the proposed method in several simulated and real data examples. Supplemental materials for this article can be found online.
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.11339462.v2
title: Bayesian Scalar on Image Regression With Nonignorable Nonresponse

description: Medical imaging has become an increasingly important tool in screening, diagnosis, prognosis, and treatment of various diseases given its information visualization and quantitative assessment. The aim of this article is to develop a Bayesian scalar-on-image regression model to integrate high-dimensional imaging data and clinical data to predict cognitive, behavioral, or emotional outcomes, while allowing for nonignorable missing outcomes. Such a nonignorable nonresponse consideration is motivated by examining the association between baseline characteristics and cognitive abilities for 802 Alzheimer patients enrolled in the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative 1 (ADNI1), for which data are partially missing. Ignoring such missing data may distort the accuracy of statistical inference and provoke misleading results. To address this issue, we propose an imaging exponential tilting model to delineate the data missing mechanism and incorporate an instrumental variable to facilitate model identifiability followed by a Bayesian framework with Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms to conduct statistical inference. This approach is validated in simulation studies where both the finite sample performance and asymptotic properties are evaluated and compared with the model with fully observed data and that with a misspecified ignorable missing mechanism. Our proposed methods are finally carried out on the ADNI1 dataset, which turns out to capture both of those clinical risk factors and imaging regions consistent with the existing literature that exhibits clinical significance. Supplementary materials for this article, including a standardized description of the materials available for reproducing the work, are available as an online supplement.
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.9619049
title: A Statistical Method for Emulation of Computer Models With Invariance-Preserving Properties, With Application to Structural Energy Prediction

description: Statistical design and analysis of computer experiments is a growing area in statistics. Computer models with structural invariance properties now appear frequently in materials science, physics, biology, and other fields. These properties are consequences of dependency on structural geometry, and cannot be accommodated by standard statistical emulation methods. In this article, we propose a statistical framework for building emulators to preserve invariance. The framework uses a weighted complete graph to represent the geometry and introduces a new class of function, called the relabeling symmetric functions, associated with the graph. We establish a characterization theorem of the relabeling symmetric functions and propose a nonparametric kernel method for estimating such functions. The effectiveness of the proposed method is illustrated by examples from materials science. Supplemental material for this article can be found online.