cometadata/datacite-titles-descriptions-related-identifiers huggingface dataset:
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.7562720
title: The Impacts of Commercial Liberalization on the Brazilian External Trade Pattern

description: ABSTRACT This paper analyses the main effects of the Brazilian trade liberalization on the technical efficiency of the manufacturing industry and the trade pattern. The principal empirical findings suggest the following results for the 1990’s: i) expressive gains in labor productivity and reduction of the average real costs for most sectors of the manufacturing industry between 1988 and 1998; ii) the trade pattern were mostly driven by import changes; iii) on average, industries which showed the greatest gains in technical efficiency did not translated them into competitiveness gains in the global markets; and iv) on average, there were dynamic efficiency losses once, on the first hand, major gains in international competitiveness were located in the traditional sectors and, on the other hand, industries that made the major investments in Research and Development (R & D) were the same that had significant sectoral trade deficits throughout the 1990’s.
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.19964581
title: On the Evolution of the Brazilian Labor Market

description: ABSTRACT Since 1990, the problem of employment in Brazil has been associated to the model of regulation of the labor relations in a context of internationalization and reorganization of the national economy. This perspective proposes the flexibility of the model of social protection established in the National Constitution. This essay has the objective to point that the national problem of employment doesn’t explain by the actual social regulation model. It is product of the process of formation and regulation of the labor market established in the 40’s of the last century and of the way as this process was articulated with a particular trajectory of development of the Brazilian economy in the period 1930-80. In the last 20 years, the stagnation of the Brazilian economy in a context of reorganization of the productive structure has aggravated the employment problem.
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.19964581.v1
title: On the Evolution of the Brazilian Labor Market

description: ABSTRACT Since 1990, the problem of employment in Brazil has been associated to the model of regulation of the labor relations in a context of internationalization and reorganization of the national economy. This perspective proposes the flexibility of the model of social protection established in the National Constitution. This essay has the objective to point that the national problem of employment doesn’t explain by the actual social regulation model. It is product of the process of formation and regulation of the labor market established in the 40’s of the last century and of the way as this process was articulated with a particular trajectory of development of the Brazilian economy in the period 1930-80. In the last 20 years, the stagnation of the Brazilian economy in a context of reorganization of the productive structure has aggravated the employment problem.
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.19964583
title: Bankruptcy Law, Credit and Interest Rates in Brazil

description: ABSTRACT Bankruptcy law is an important economic institution because of its effects on credit and, consequently, on financial and economic development. This fact has led several countries to revise their law. This article presents an overview on the topic focusing in Brazil. Its main points are: credit in Brazil is not compatible with the country level of development; there is evidence that Brazil is among the countries where legal protection to creditors is worst; the international experience shows that changes in the bankruptcy law affects the market for credit; and the Brazilian law is extremely outdated.
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.19964583.v1
title: Bankruptcy Law, Credit and Interest Rates in Brazil

description: ABSTRACT Bankruptcy law is an important economic institution because of its effects on credit and, consequently, on financial and economic development. This fact has led several countries to revise their law. This article presents an overview on the topic focusing in Brazil. Its main points are: credit in Brazil is not compatible with the country level of development; there is evidence that Brazil is among the countries where legal protection to creditors is worst; the international experience shows that changes in the bankruptcy law affects the market for credit; and the Brazilian law is extremely outdated.
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.19964595
title: Impacto da ascensão chinesa sobre os países latino-americanos

description: The impact of China's rise on Latin-AAmerican countries. We review in this paper the expansion of economic relations between China and Latin America Countries (LAC) in the last decade. The large process of Chinese urbanization was the main driver for LAC commodity exports and China became the largest market for export and large supplier of manufactures for many LAC and its contribution for investment and credit has enlarged as well. In this process of restructuring of international division of labor we considered two different effects, a "demand effect" and a "structure effect" and investigated how complementarity and competitive pressures affected trade within region and in LAC according to their different patterns and productive structure.
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.19964595.v1
title: Impacto da ascensão chinesa sobre os países latino-americanos

description: The impact of China's rise on Latin-AAmerican countries. We review in this paper the expansion of economic relations between China and Latin America Countries (LAC) in the last decade. The large process of Chinese urbanization was the main driver for LAC commodity exports and China became the largest market for export and large supplier of manufactures for many LAC and its contribution for investment and credit has enlarged as well. In this process of restructuring of international division of labor we considered two different effects, a "demand effect" and a "structure effect" and investigated how complementarity and competitive pressures affected trade within region and in LAC according to their different patterns and productive structure.
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.19964596.v1
title: Overvaluation trend of the Brazilian currency in the 2000s: empirical estimation

description: The aim of this paper is to discuss the trend of overvaluation of the Brazilian currency in the 2000s, presenting an econometric model to estimate the real exchange rate (RER) and which should be a reference level of the RER to guide long-term economic policy. In the econometric model, we consider long-term structural and short-term components, both of which may be responsible for explaining overvaluation trend of the Brazilian currency. Our econometric exercise confirms that the Brazilian currency had been persistently overvalued throughout almost all of the period under analysis, and we suggest that the long-term reference level of the real exchange rate was reached in 2004. In July 2014, the average nominal exchange rate should have been around 2.90 Brazilian reais per dollar (against an observed nominal rate of 2.22 Brazilian reais per dollar) to achieve the 2004 real reference level (average of the year). That is, according to our estimates, in July 2014 the Brazilian real was overvalued at 30.6 per cent in real terms relative to the reference level. Based on these findings we conclude the paper suggesting a mix of policy instruments that should have been used in order to reverse the overvaluation trend of the Brazilian real exchange rate, including a target for reaching a real exchange rate in the medium and the long-run which would favor resource allocation toward more technological intensive sectors.
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.19964596
title: Overvaluation trend of the Brazilian currency in the 2000s: empirical estimation

description: The aim of this paper is to discuss the trend of overvaluation of the Brazilian currency in the 2000s, presenting an econometric model to estimate the real exchange rate (RER) and which should be a reference level of the RER to guide long-term economic policy. In the econometric model, we consider long-term structural and short-term components, both of which may be responsible for explaining overvaluation trend of the Brazilian currency. Our econometric exercise confirms that the Brazilian currency had been persistently overvalued throughout almost all of the period under analysis, and we suggest that the long-term reference level of the real exchange rate was reached in 2004. In July 2014, the average nominal exchange rate should have been around 2.90 Brazilian reais per dollar (against an observed nominal rate of 2.22 Brazilian reais per dollar) to achieve the 2004 real reference level (average of the year). That is, according to our estimates, in July 2014 the Brazilian real was overvalued at 30.6 per cent in real terms relative to the reference level. Based on these findings we conclude the paper suggesting a mix of policy instruments that should have been used in order to reverse the overvaluation trend of the Brazilian real exchange rate, including a target for reaching a real exchange rate in the medium and the long-run which would favor resource allocation toward more technological intensive sectors.
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.19964598.v1
title: Statistical interpretation of the GDP, the PNAD and the minimum wage

description: Why has household income in the National Household Survey (PNAD) grown so much faster than household consumption in Brazil's GDP from 2011 to 2012? To provide an answer to this question, we start from a visualization of the importance of the minimum wage in PNAD's income distribution and from a hypothesis that the underestimation of incomes in the PNAD surveys is concentrated in those families whose incomes do not follow the minimum wage. We then derive an equation to explain the difference between household income growth in the PNAD and household consumption growth in the national accounts as a function of the change in the minimum wage. Our empirical estimates of this equation suggest that the behavior of the minimum wage has been an important component in the explanation of differences in income growth between the PNAD and the GDP accounts.
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.19964598
title: Statistical interpretation of the GDP, the PNAD and the minimum wage

description: Why has household income in the National Household Survey (PNAD) grown so much faster than household consumption in Brazil's GDP from 2011 to 2012? To provide an answer to this question, we start from a visualization of the importance of the minimum wage in PNAD's income distribution and from a hypothesis that the underestimation of incomes in the PNAD surveys is concentrated in those families whose incomes do not follow the minimum wage. We then derive an equation to explain the difference between household income growth in the PNAD and household consumption growth in the national accounts as a function of the change in the minimum wage. Our empirical estimates of this equation suggest that the behavior of the minimum wage has been an important component in the explanation of differences in income growth between the PNAD and the GDP accounts.
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.19964601
title: Institutions, credibility and crisis: the inconsistencies of Argentine exchange rate policy (1991-2006)

description: The purpose of this article is twofold. The first is to explain the time inconsistencies of the convertibility regime that led to the 2001 crisis. The argument suggests that the credibility requirements for convertibility induced a dynamic of legal, fiscal, financial and external commitments that increased exit costs and time inconsistencies. The second objective is to explain the tensions of the floating regime that replaced convertibility in 2002. We describe the effects of a floating exchange rate on macroeconomic imbalance and the growing tension between competitiveness and inflation.
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.19964601.v1
title: Institutions, credibility and crisis: the inconsistencies of Argentine exchange rate policy (1991-2006)

description: The purpose of this article is twofold. The first is to explain the time inconsistencies of the convertibility regime that led to the 2001 crisis. The argument suggests that the credibility requirements for convertibility induced a dynamic of legal, fiscal, financial and external commitments that increased exit costs and time inconsistencies. The second objective is to explain the tensions of the floating regime that replaced convertibility in 2002. We describe the effects of a floating exchange rate on macroeconomic imbalance and the growing tension between competitiveness and inflation.
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.19964605
title: Global instability of currencies: reasons and perspectives according to the state-corporation hegemonic stability theory

description: This paper analyses reasons of the instability of the world monetary system. The author considers this problem from historical and contemporary perspectives. According to presented point of view banknotes and electronic money which replaced gold and silver coins in popular circulation are the most important reason of the instability. There are also proven positive and negative consequences of money instability. Reforms of the world monetary system need agreement within the global collective hegemony of state-powers and transnational corporations.
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.19964605.v1
title: Global instability of currencies: reasons and perspectives according to the state-corporation hegemonic stability theory

description: This paper analyses reasons of the instability of the world monetary system. The author considers this problem from historical and contemporary perspectives. According to presented point of view banknotes and electronic money which replaced gold and silver coins in popular circulation are the most important reason of the instability. There are also proven positive and negative consequences of money instability. Reforms of the world monetary system need agreement within the global collective hegemony of state-powers and transnational corporations.
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.19964607
title: Taxa de juros e mecanismos de transmissão da política monetária no Brasil

description: Interest rate and monetary transmition mechanisms in Brazil. This paper develops the hypothesis that the Brazilian interest rate is high as a result of partially obstructed monetary transmission mechanisms. Transmission failures arise due to the following characteristics of the Brazilian economy: (i) segmentation of the credit market; (ii) low penetration of free credit within the income determination process; (iii) truncated term structure of interest rates; (iv) participation of LFTs in public debt; (v) participation of administered prices in the consumer price index. To achieve this result, the paper explores the BMW model and provides some preliminary evidence.
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.19964607.v1
title: Taxa de juros e mecanismos de transmissão da política monetária no Brasil

description: Interest rate and monetary transmition mechanisms in Brazil. This paper develops the hypothesis that the Brazilian interest rate is high as a result of partially obstructed monetary transmission mechanisms. Transmission failures arise due to the following characteristics of the Brazilian economy: (i) segmentation of the credit market; (ii) low penetration of free credit within the income determination process; (iii) truncated term structure of interest rates; (iv) participation of LFTs in public debt; (v) participation of administered prices in the consumer price index. To achieve this result, the paper explores the BMW model and provides some preliminary evidence.
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.19964610
title: Neoliberalism and global capital mobility: a necessary reconsideration of textbook trade theory

description: Textbook theory ignores capital flows: trade determines exchange rates and specialisation. Approaches taking the effects of capital movements adequately into account are needed, and a new theory of economic policy including measures to protect the real economy from external volatility. Equilibrating textbook mechanisms cannot work unless trade-caused surpluses and deficits set exchange rates. To allow orthodox trade theory to work one must hinder capital flows from destroying its very basis, which the IMF and wrong regulatory decisions have done, penalising production and trade. A new, real economy based theory is proposed, a Neoclassical agenda of controlling capital flows and speculation.
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.19964610.v1
title: Neoliberalism and global capital mobility: a necessary reconsideration of textbook trade theory

description: Textbook theory ignores capital flows: trade determines exchange rates and specialisation. Approaches taking the effects of capital movements adequately into account are needed, and a new theory of economic policy including measures to protect the real economy from external volatility. Equilibrating textbook mechanisms cannot work unless trade-caused surpluses and deficits set exchange rates. To allow orthodox trade theory to work one must hinder capital flows from destroying its very basis, which the IMF and wrong regulatory decisions have done, penalising production and trade. A new, real economy based theory is proposed, a Neoclassical agenda of controlling capital flows and speculation.
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.19964613
title: The boom and crisis of the Convertibility Plan in Argentina

description: This article analyses the relationship between state policies and economy in Argentina 1991-2001. In 1991 the currency board regime named 'convertibility' was implemented, within the framework of important neoliberal reforms introduced by the State. These neoliberal reforms facilitated capitalist restructuring, characterized by a leap in productivity, investment and profits. Likewise, these reforms generated imbalances which, along with the changes in the world market conditions from 1998, led to the deepest crisis in Argentina's history. The inefficiency of state neoliberal policies in managing the crisis, based on fiscal adjustment to guarantee the continuity of external financing, led to an economic depression and a financial crash, sparking a mass rebellion and the end of convertibility.
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.19964613.v1
title: The boom and crisis of the Convertibility Plan in Argentina

description: This article analyses the relationship between state policies and economy in Argentina 1991-2001. In 1991 the currency board regime named 'convertibility' was implemented, within the framework of important neoliberal reforms introduced by the State. These neoliberal reforms facilitated capitalist restructuring, characterized by a leap in productivity, investment and profits. Likewise, these reforms generated imbalances which, along with the changes in the world market conditions from 1998, led to the deepest crisis in Argentina's history. The inefficiency of state neoliberal policies in managing the crisis, based on fiscal adjustment to guarantee the continuity of external financing, led to an economic depression and a financial crash, sparking a mass rebellion and the end of convertibility.
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.19964617
title: The Brazilian deindustrialization: financialization is not guilty

description: The financialization of the Brazilian economy is often criticized as being responsible of the slowdown of capital accumulation in this country. Indeed, very high interest rates are maintained in order to finance the public debt, and this fosters capitalists to get more Treasury bonds rather than to invest in the productive area. Nevertheless, the evolution of the profit rate in this area also explains the particular relation existing between capitalists, finance and productive investment, as Marx showed it more than a century ago.
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.19964617.v1
title: The Brazilian deindustrialization: financialization is not guilty

description: The financialization of the Brazilian economy is often criticized as being responsible of the slowdown of capital accumulation in this country. Indeed, very high interest rates are maintained in order to finance the public debt, and this fosters capitalists to get more Treasury bonds rather than to invest in the productive area. Nevertheless, the evolution of the profit rate in this area also explains the particular relation existing between capitalists, finance and productive investment, as Marx showed it more than a century ago.
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.19964620
title: As armadilhas do tripé da política macroeconômica brasileira

description: ABSTRACTThe traps of the tripad of the Brazilian macroeconomic policy. This paper analyses the so-called tripod of the Brazilian macroeconomic policy, which since 1999 has been combining an inflation target regime, a floating exchange rate regime and targets for primary fiscal surplus. I argue that, unless its modus operandi is changed, the tripod will not be able to free the Brazilian economy from another "possible trinity": high real interest rates, real exchange rate appreciation and very low economic growth. After briefly analysing the theoretical base under the macroeconomic tripod, I will show why this macroeconomic policy regime, if it is evaluated in a medium or long-term perspective, has not been able to assure neither price stability nor economic growth. In addition to the suggestion of breaking with the Brazilian strategy of growing with foreign savings, the paper also suggests three main ways of changing the modus operandi of the Brazilian tripod: i) increase the time horizon for reaching the inflation target, as has been the experience of most countries that adopt this monetary policy regime; ii) restore the countercyclical role of the Brazilian fiscal policy; and iii) adopt a mix of instruments aiming at preventing the Brazilian currency from entering into a new cyclical trend of appreciation in real terms.
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.19964620.v1
title: As armadilhas do tripé da política macroeconômica brasileira

description: ABSTRACTThe traps of the tripad of the Brazilian macroeconomic policy. This paper analyses the so-called tripod of the Brazilian macroeconomic policy, which since 1999 has been combining an inflation target regime, a floating exchange rate regime and targets for primary fiscal surplus. I argue that, unless its modus operandi is changed, the tripod will not be able to free the Brazilian economy from another "possible trinity": high real interest rates, real exchange rate appreciation and very low economic growth. After briefly analysing the theoretical base under the macroeconomic tripod, I will show why this macroeconomic policy regime, if it is evaluated in a medium or long-term perspective, has not been able to assure neither price stability nor economic growth. In addition to the suggestion of breaking with the Brazilian strategy of growing with foreign savings, the paper also suggests three main ways of changing the modus operandi of the Brazilian tripod: i) increase the time horizon for reaching the inflation target, as has been the experience of most countries that adopt this monetary policy regime; ii) restore the countercyclical role of the Brazilian fiscal policy; and iii) adopt a mix of instruments aiming at preventing the Brazilian currency from entering into a new cyclical trend of appreciation in real terms.
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.19964622
title: O desafio macroeconômico de 2015-2018

description: ABSTRACTThe macroeconomic challenge for 2015-2018. This paper presents a macroeconomic outlook of Brazil at the end of 2014 and an analysis of the main challenges to its macroeconomic policy in the subsequent years. On one side, the analysis is focused on the relationship between interest rates, growth and the real exchange rate. On the other, the paper also analyzes the multiples aspects and problems of fiscal policy in Brazil.