DOI: 10.5061/dryad.pd959
title: Data from: Pluck or luck: does trait variation or chance drive variation in lifetime reproductive success?

description: While there has been extensive interest in how intraspecific trait
 variation affects ecological processes, outcomes are highly variable even
 when individuals are identical: some are lucky while others are not. Trait
 variation is therefore only important if it adds substantially to the
 variability produced by luck. We ask when trait variation has a
 substantial effect on variability in lifetime reproductive success (LRS),
 using two approaches: 1) we partition the variation in LRS into
 contributions from luck and trait variation; 2) we ask what can be
 inferred about an individual's traits, and with what certainty, given
 their observed LRS. In theoretical stage- and size-structured models, and
 two empirical case studies, we find that luck usually dominates the
 variance of LRS. Even when individuals differ substantially in ways that
 affect expected LRS, unless the effects of luck are substantially reduced
 (e.g. low variability in reproductive lifespan or in annual fecundity),
 most variance in lifetime outcomes is due to luck, implying that
 departures from "null" models omitting trait variation will be
 hard to detect. Luck also obscures the relationship between realized LRS
 and individual traits. While trait variation may influence the fate of
 populations, luck often governs the lives of individuals.
description: READMEage2SizePars.RData file used by IdahoIPMFunctions.Rage2SizePars.csvBaselineParameterSets.RdataData file used by SizeQualityFunctionsPlot.R and SizeQualityVarPartition.RgrowPars.csvData file used by IdahoIPMFunctions.RIdahoIPMFunctions.RDefines functions needed by IdahoIPMLifeCycleStats.R and IdahoWinnerTraits2Plots.RIdahoIPMLifeCycleStats.RCode to generate Figs. 5 and 6IdahoWinnerTraits2Plots.RCode to generate Figs. 7 and 8KittiwakeMatrices.RData used by KittiwakeWinnerTraitsFecSurv3.R. Demographic data are taken from Steiner, U. K., S. Tuljapurkar, and S. H. Orzack. 2010. Dynamic heterogeneity and life history variability in the kittiwake. Journal of Animal Ecology 79:436–444 and Cam, E., W. A. Link, E. G. Cooch, J.-Y. Monnat, and E. Danchin. 2002. Individual covariation in life-history traits: seeing the trees despite the forest. The American Naturalist 159:96–105.KittiwakeWinnerTraitsFecSurv3.RCode for generating Fig. 4MegamatrixFunctions.RDefines functions needed by KittiwakeWinnerTraitsFecSurv3.R and SizeQualityVarPartition.RRpartitionItero.RCode to generate Figs. 1, 22, and 23RpartitionSemel.RCode to generate Figs. 2 and 24SeedlingSurvPars.csvData needed by IdahoIPMFunctions.RSimplePartitionSimulate.RCode to generate Fig. 21SizeQualityFunctions.RDefines functions needed by SizeQualityFunctionsPlot.R and SizeQualityVarPartition.RSizeQualityFunctionsPlot.RCode to generate Figs. 9--13SizeQualityVarPartition.RCode to generate Figs. 10--13Standard Graphical Pars.RDefines functions needed by IdahoIPMLifeCycleStats.R, IdahoWinnerTraits2Plots.R, KittiwakeWinnerTraitsFecSurv3.R, SizeQualityFunctionsPlot.R, and SizeQualityVarPartition.RSurvPars.csvData needed by IdahoIPMFunctions.RTwoStageWinnerTraits2Plots.RCode to generate Fig. 3Utilities.RDefines functions needed by IdahoIPMLifeCycleStats.R, IdahoWinnerTraits2Plots.R, KittiwakeWinnerTraitsFecSurv3.R, SizeQualityFunctionsPlot.R, and SizeQualityVarPartition.RwPars.csvData needed by IdahoIPMFunctions.RCompare_seedlings.RExploratory data analysis to compare seedlings and others. Referred to in Appendix C.fetchDemoData-allWs.Rdependency of Compare_seedlings.R, Fit_Growth_JAGS.R, Fit_Growth_Older_GAM.R, Fit_Growth_Seedlings.R, Fit_Survival_Older.R, Fit_Survival_Seedlings.R.Fit_Growth_JAGS.RProduces numbers in Table C3.jags_growth.txtDependency of Fit_Growth_JAGS.R.Fit_Growth_Older_GAM.RProduces Figure C6.Fit_Growth_Seedlings.RProduces Figure C5.Fit_Survival_Older.RProduces numbers in Table C1.Fit_Survival_Seedlings.RProduces numbers in Table C1, produces Figure C1.JAGS_tables_v3.RProduces numbers in Table C3.KittiwakeVarPartitionTable.RCalculates the contribution of trait variation to variance in LRS and lifespan for the kittiwakes, as discussed in the first full paragraph after eq. 7.ModelingW.RProduces numbers in Table C4, produces Figure C7.SizeQualityElasticityAnalysis.RProduces numbers in Table B2.TrimQuadrats.Rdependency of Compare_seedlings.R, Fit_Growth_Older_GAM.R, Fit_Growth_Seedlings.R, Fit_Survival_Older.R, Fit_Survival_Seedlings.R.PartitionByWGenerates the entries in Table 2.