DOI: 10.5063/aa/dpennington.136.1
title: IPCC Climate Change Data: CSIRO B2a Model: 2050 Mean Temperature

description: The CSIRO Atmospheric Research Mark 2b climate model (Hirst et al., 1996, 1999) has recently been used for a number of more sophisticated climate change simulations. These start from 1880 to avoid the "cold start problem". This version of the CSIRO model includes the Gent-McWilliams mixing scheme in the ocean and shows greatly reduced climate drift relative to earlier versions (e.g. Dix and Hunt, 1998). The drift in global mean surface temperature in the new control run is about -0.02 degrees C/century. Note that the model uses flux correction. The model atmosphere has 9 levels in the vertical and horizontal resolution of spectral R21 (approximately 5.6 by 3.2 degrees). The ocean model has the same horizontal resolution with 21 levels. The equilibrium sensitivity to doubled CO2 of a mixed layer ocean version of the model is 4.3 degrees. This is at the high end of the range of model sensitivities (e.g. IPCC 1995, Table 6.3). In the basic greenhouse gas experiment the model combines the effect of all radiatively active trace gases into an "equivalent" CO2 concentration. Observed concentrations are used from 1880 to 1990 and the IS92a projections into the future. This gives close to a 1%/year compounding increase of equivalent CO2. Another model experiment includes the negative radiative forcing from atmospheric sulphate aerosol. The direct aerosol forcing is included via a perturbation of the surface albedo, similarly to the Hadley Centre experiments described by Mitchell et al (1995) and Mitchell and Johns (1997) . The sulphate concentrations are the same as used in the Hadley Centre experiments. However the chosen aerosol optical properties are different, giving a present day forcing due to anthropogenic sulphate of about -0.4 W/m^2. This can be compared to the 1880-1990 greenhouse gas forcing of about 2 W/m^2. The magnitude of the 20th century warming in the model including aerosol matches the observed reasonably well. However there are a number of forcings missing from the model, including solar variability, sulphate indirect effect and the effect of soot. The climate sensitivity of CSIRO-Mk2 is about 4.3 degrees C (Watterson et al.,1997). Like B1, the B2 world is one of increased concern for environmental and social sustainability, but the character of this world differs substantially. Education and welfare programs are widely pursued leading to reductions in mortality and, to a lesser extent, fertility. The population reaches about 10 billion people by 2100, consistent with both the United Nations and IIASA median projections. Income per capita grows at an intermediary rate to reach about US$12,000 by 2050. By 2100 the global economy might expand to reach some US$250 trillion. International income differences decrease, although not as rapidly as in scenarios of higher global convergence (A1, B1). Local inequity is reduced considerably through the development of stronger community support networks. Generally high educational levels promote both development and environmental protection. Indeed, environmental protection is one of the few remaining truly international priorities. However, strategies to address global environmental challenges are less successful than in B1, as governments have difficulty designing and implementing agreements that combine environmental protection with mutual economic benefits. The B2 storyline presents a particularly favorable climate for community initiative and social innovation, especially in view of high educational levels. Technological frontiers are pushed less than in A1 and B1 and innovations are also regionally more heterogeneous. Globally, investment in R and D continues its current declining trend, and mechanisms for international diffusion of technology and know-how remain weaker than in scenarios A1 and B1 (but higher than in scenario A2). Some regions with rapid economic development and limited natural resources place particular emphasis on technology development and bilateral co-operation. Technical change is therefore uneven. The energy intensity of GDP declines at about one percent per year, in line with the average historical experience of the last two centuries. Land-use management becomes better integrated at the local level in the B2 world. Urban and transport infrastructure is a particular focus of community innovation, contributing to a low level of car dependence and less urban sprawl. An emphasis on food self-reliance contributes to a shift in dietary patterns towards local products, with reduced meat consumption in countries with high population densities. Energy systems differ from region to region, depending on the availability of natural resources. The need to use energy and other resources more efficiently spurs the development of less carbon-intensive technology in some regions. Environment policy cooperation at the regional level leads to success in the management of some transboundary environmental problems, such as acidification due to SO2, especially to sustain regional self-reliance in agricultural production. Regional cooperation also results in lower emissions of NOx and VOCs, reducing the incidence of elevated tropospheric ozone levels. Although globally the energy system remains predominantly hydrocarbon-based to 2100, there is a gradual transition away from the current share of fossil resources in world energy supply, with a corresponding reduction in carbon intensity.