DOI: 10.5061/dryad.rv15dv4db
title: Data for: Climate warming and projected loss of thermal habitat volume in lake populations of brook trout

description: We applied an ensemble of climate warming models and the seasonal
 temperature profile model for lakes (STM) to assess changes in brook trout
 thermal habitat volume (THV) among lakes (N=100) within a large, protected
 area under two climate warming scenarios, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Brook trout
 thermal habitat was defined as 9-17°C. Climate warming projections for the
 balance of this century, regardless of RCP category, will result in the
 loss of brook trout habitat in lakes that range widely in size. THV loss
 will be most extensive in lakes that are relatively shallow given their
 surface area. By 2071-2100 under RCP 4.5, the 90th percentile of THV loss
 = 31% vs. 63% under RCP 8.5. By the century's end under RCP 8.5, the
 protected area landscape will be a matrix of lakes with some serving as
 climate refugia (with reduced THV) and others having severe reductions in
 THV (&gt;90th percentile THV loss).
description: Lake morphology data for Algonquin Park (area, shoreline length,
 maximum and mean lake depth) were used in the seasonal temperature profile
 model for lakes (STM) to evaluate how climate warming under the RCP 4.5
 and RCP 8.5 scenarios reduces brook trout thermal habitat volume. An
 ensemble of climate models was used as input for the STM and summaries of
 effects on lake thermal structure are provided in 30-year periods:
 1981-2010, 2011- 2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100. The input data are
 provided here for each of these periods. The Github source for the STM is
 provided in the article. Additional supplementary data and maps are
 provided as a supplement to the published article.
description: The seasonal temperature profile model for lakes (STM) was used
 to run this analysis. Model download sites and publications evaluating the
 model performance are described in the article. The distribution of
 changes in brook trout thermal habitat volume, relative to baseline, was
 modeled using general extreme value models to capture the extending right
 tail of each distribution in each time period. The R package fisdistPLUS
 was used for fitting the general extreme value distribution.
description: # Data for: Climate warming and projected loss of thermal habitat volume
 in lake populations of brook trout The tables include a list of input
 variables into the STM model used to evaluate brook trout thermal habitat
 volume. See the published article for model details, the source for
 downloading, and a description of the lake thermal structure illustrated
 for an example lake = Scott Lake in Algonquin Park. ## Description of the
 data and file structure. #### Tables (\*.csv) included here
 contain the following information: 1. Lake_Data_Brook_Trout_THV: The list
 of lakes in Algonquin Park included in evaluating the loss of brook trout
 thermal habitat volume (THV) using the seasonal temperature profile model
 (STM). Physical parameters such as perimeter, surface area, mean depth and
 max depth are lake morphometry variables used in STM. Lakes are mapped in
 Figure 1. Lake data were used in determining relative shallow vs deep
 lakes given their surface area in Figure 2. 2.
 Secchi_data_Brook_Trout_THV: Historic (1970s) and recent (2010s) Secchi
 depth data for Algonquin Park lakes. 62 lakes in this dataset are used in
 the evaluation of THV loss. The purpose is to estimate secchi for lakes
 that did not have a reading in the 2010s. Secchi reflects darkness or in
 recent times brownification of lakes that in turn affects the depth of
 thermocline, potentially. Notice how the data 'center of
 gravity' is below the 1:1 line in Figure 3. 3.
 Lake_Climate_Data_RCP45_30yr: Output from the ensemble climate model set
 for RCP4.5 for use in the STM, partitioned into the 30-year periods. For
 each lake and period, monthly temperature and August precipitation are
 averaged over each period. Lake-level data are derived from the nearest
 node used in spatially mapping climate change. Map of node locations are
 in Supplement 1. 4. Lake_Climate_Data_RCP85_30yr: Output from the ensemble
 climate model set for RCP8.5 for use in the STM, partitioned into the
 30-year periods. For each lake and period, monthly temperature and August
 precipitation are averaged over each period. Lake-level data are derived
 from the nearest node used in spatially mapping climate change. Map of
 node locations are in Supplement 1. 5. Lakes_THV_change_RCP45: A summary
 of proportional THV loss per lake under the RCP4.5 scenario of climate
 warming. Results are summarized per 30-year period. This data is
 summarized in Figure 5. Parameters for the general extreme value fit are
 in Supplement 1. 6. Lakes_THV_change_RCP85: A summary of proportional THV
 loss per lake under the RCP8.5 scenario of climate warming. Resuls are
 summarized per 30 year period. This data is summarized in Figure 5.
 Parameters for the general extreme value fit are in Supplement 1. Column
 parameter labels: 1. Lake_Data_Brook_Trout_THV Lake Name; Latitude;
 Longitude; Elevation = above sea level, meters; Area = surface area,
 hectares; Shoreline = total shore length, kilometers; Depth_Max = maximum
 lake depth, meters; Depth_Mean = mean lake depth, meters; DOC = dissolved
 organic carbon concentration, milligrams per liter; dif_max_min =
 difference between maximum depth and mean depth, meters. 2.
 Secchi_data_Brook_Trout_THV Lake Name; Secchi depth (m) 1970s = observed
 maximum depth of visible Secchi disc from lake surveys in 1970s, meters;
 Predicted_secchi_1970s = predicted depth of secchi disc in 1970s based on
 regression, meters. NA = not available because of direct observation;
 Secchi (m) 2010s = observed maximum depth of visible Secchi disc from lake
 surveys in 2010s, meters; Predicted_secchi_2010s = predicted depth of
 Secchi disc in the 2010s based on regression, meters. NA = not available
 because of direct observation. 3. Lake_Climate_Data_RCP45_30yr = climate
 variables under RCP 4.5 scenario Lake Name; Period = one of three periods
 used to summarize warming effects, 1) 1981-2010, 2) 2011-2040, 3)
 2041-2070, 4) 2071-2100; Tjan = average January air temperature per period
 from ensemble model set (same for each month), Celsius; Tfeb = average
 February air temperature per period from ensemble model set, Celsius; Tmar
 = average March air temperature per period from ensemble model set,
 Celsius; Tapr = average April air temperature per period from ensemble
 model set, Celsius; Tmay = average May air temperature per period from
 ensemble model set, Celsius; Tjun = average June air temperature per
 period from ensemble model set, Celsius; Tjul = average July air
 temperature per period from ensemble model set, Celsius; Taug = average
 August air temperature per period from ensemble model set, Celsius; Tsep =
 average September air temperature per period from ensemble model set,
 Celsius; Toct = average October air temperature per period from ensemble
 model set, Celsius; Tnov = average November air temperature per period
 from ensemble model set, Celsius; Tdec = average December air temperature
 per period from ensemble model set, Celsius; Tann = average annual air
 temperature per period from ensemble model set, Celsius; Paug = average
 August precipitation as rain, mm. 4. Lake_Climate_Data_RCP85_30yr =
 climate variables under RCP 8.5 scenario Lake Name; Period = one of three
 periods used to summarize warming effects, 1) 1981-2010, 2) 2011-2040, 3)
 2041-2070, 4) 2071-2100; Tjan = average January air temperature per period
 from ensemble model set (same for each month), Celsius; Tfeb = average
 February air temperature per period from ensemble model set, Celsius; Tmar
 = average March air temperature per period from ensemble model set,
 Celsius; Tapr = average April air temperature per period from ensemble
 model set, Celsius; Tmay = average May air temperature per period from
 ensemble model set, Celsius; Tjun = average June air temperature per
 period from ensemble model set, Celsius; Tjul = average July air
 temperature per period from ensemble model set, Celsius; Taug = average
 August air temperature per period from ensemble model set, Celsius; Tsep =
 average September air temperature per period from ensemble model set,
 Celsius; Toct = average October air temperature per period from ensemble
 model set, Celsius; Tnov = average November air temperature per period
 from ensemble model set, Celsius; Tdec = average December air temperature
 per period from ensemble model set, Celsius; Tann = average annual air
 temperature per period from ensemble model set, Celsius; Paug = average
 August precipitation as rain, mm. 5. Lake_THV_change_RCP45 = proportional
 loss of brook trout thermal habitat volume per lake under RCP 4.5
 scenario. Relative to the baseline period, 1981-2010 Lake Name; Area_ha =
 lake surface area, hectares; Vol_2SD_loss_2011_2040 = proportion loss of
 brook trout thermal habitat defined as the upper and lower 2SD boundaries
 of thermal habitat. Lower 2SD = 9-12.99 C and upper 2SD = 13-16.99 C;
 Vol_2SD_loss_2041_2070 = proportion loss of brook trout thermal habitat
 defined as the upper and lower 2SD boundaries of thermal habitat. Lower
 2SD = 9-12.99 C and upper 2SD = 13-16.99 C; Vol_2SD_loss_2071_2100 =
 proportion loss of brook trout thermal habitat defined as the upper and
 lower 2SD boundaries of thermal habitat. Lower 2SD = 9-12.99 C and upper
 2SD = 13-16.99 C; 6. Lake_THV_change_RCP85 = proportional loss of brook
 trout thermal habitat volume per lake under RCP 8.5 scenario. Relative to
 the baseline period, 1981-2010 Lake Name; Area_ha = lake surface area,
 hectares; Vol_2SD_loss_2011_2040 = proportion loss of brook trout thermal
 habitat defined as the upper and lower 2SD boundaries of thermal habitat.
 Lower 2SD = 9-12.99 C and upper 2SD = 13-16.99 C; Vol_2SD_loss_2041_2070 =
 proportion loss of brook trout thermal habitat defined as the upper and
 lower 2SD boundaries of thermal habitat. Lower 2SD = 9-12.99 C and upper
 2SD = 13-16.99 C; Vol_2SD_loss_2071_2100 = proportion loss of brook trout
 thermal habitat defined as the upper and lower 2SD boundaries of thermal
 habitat. Lower 2SD = 9-12.99 C and upper 2SD = 13-16.99 C;