DOI: 10.25338/b8q34j
title: Spatial scenarios for market penetration of plug-in battery electric trucks in the United States

description: Carbon emissions targets require large reductions in greenhouse gases
 (GHGs) in the near- to mid-term, and the transportation sector is a major
 emitter of GHGs. To understand potential pathways to GHG reductions, this
 project developed the U.S. Transportation Transitions Model (US TTM) to
 study various scenarios of zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) market penetration
 in the U.S. The model includes vehicle fuel economy, vehicle stock and
 sales, fuel carbon intensities, and costs for vehicles and fuels all
 projected through 2050. Market penetration scenarios through 2050 are
 input as percentages of sales for all vehicle types and technologies.
 Three scenarios were developed for the U.S.: a business as usual (BAU),
 low carbon (LC), and High ZEV scenario. The LC and High ZEV include rapid
 penetration of ZEVs into the vehicle market. The introduction of ZEVs
 requires fueling infrastructure to support the vehicles. Initial
 deployments of ZEVs are expected to be dominated by battery electric
 vehicles. To estimate the number and cost of charging stations for battery
 electric trucks in the mid-term, outputs were used from a California
 Energy Commission (CEC) study projecting the need for chargers in
 California. The study used the HEVI-Pro model to estimate electrical
 energy needs and number of chargers for the truck stock in several
 California cities. The CEC study outputs were used along with the TTM
 model outputs from this study to estimate charger needs and costs for six
 U.S. cities outside California. The LC and High ZEV scenarios reduced
 carbon emissions by 92% and 94% in the U.S. by 2050, respectively. Due to
 slow stock turnover, the LC and High ZEV scenarios contain significant
 numbers of ICE trucks. The biomass-based liquid volume reaches 70 (High
 ZEV) to 80 (LC) billion GGE by 2045. For the cities in this study, the
 charger cost ranges from $5 million to $2.6 billion in 2030 and from
 roughly $1 billion to almost $30 billion in 2040.
description: We collected data on the number of
 trucks projected for California in 2030 disaggregated into trucking
 vehicle type for all California and for the cities of Los Angeles,
 Sacramento, and San Diego. We collected data on the number of battery
 electric trucks projected for California in 2030 disaggregated into
 trucking vehicle type for all California and for the cities of Los
 Angeles, Sacramento, and San Diego. The data comes from a CEC study and an LBNL
 study: Assembly Bill 2127 Electric
 Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Assessment: Analyzing Charging Needs to
 Support Zero-Emission Vehicle in 2030, Staff report CEC-600-2021-001.
 2021.
 https://www.energy.ca.gov/publications/2020/assembly-bill-2127-electric-vehicle-charging-infrastructure-assessment-analyzing Wang, Bin, Doug Black, Fan Tong, and Cong Zhang (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory). 2020. “Presentation — Medium- and Heavy-Duty Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Projections (HEVI-Pro).” Integrated Energy Policy Report August 6th workshop. https://efiling.energy.ca.gov/getdocument.aspx?tn=234209 We also collected data on charger cost, city population, and the California TTM model projected number of ZEV trucks in the California for 2030 and 2040.
description: The data are in Excel spreadsheets