cometadata/datacite-titles-descriptions-related-identifiers huggingface dataset:
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.20020566
title: TAX EXEMPTION OF THE BASIC FOOD BASKET OR EXPANSION OF THE BOLSA FAMÍLIA PROGRAM? A COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM SIMULATION

description: ABSTRACT In order to reduce poverty, from 2013 onwards, the Brazilian government promoted the exemption of the basic food basket and increased the value of the Bolsa Família Program (PBF). This paper seeks to analyze which of the two policy options would have greater impact on the poorest households if the funds for the two were equal. Next, it was calculated which level of targeting required for the PBF would equal the impacts of the two policies. For this purpose a general equilibrium model was built with discrete time and heterogeneous households. The results show that the increase of the transfers generates greater benefit on the welfare of the poorer class than the relief of the basic basket. This result is maintained at a target level of PBF at least 35.4%. For lower levels of targeting, the relief of the basket becomes preferable.
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.20020566.v1
title: TAX EXEMPTION OF THE BASIC FOOD BASKET OR EXPANSION OF THE BOLSA FAMÍLIA PROGRAM? A COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM SIMULATION

description: ABSTRACT In order to reduce poverty, from 2013 onwards, the Brazilian government promoted the exemption of the basic food basket and increased the value of the Bolsa Família Program (PBF). This paper seeks to analyze which of the two policy options would have greater impact on the poorest households if the funds for the two were equal. Next, it was calculated which level of targeting required for the PBF would equal the impacts of the two policies. For this purpose a general equilibrium model was built with discrete time and heterogeneous households. The results show that the increase of the transfers generates greater benefit on the welfare of the poorer class than the relief of the basic basket. This result is maintained at a target level of PBF at least 35.4%. For lower levels of targeting, the relief of the basket becomes preferable.
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.20020555
title: HAVE WE REALLY “RUN OUT OF MONEY”? INTEREST RATES AND THE FINANCING OF PUBLIC EXPENDITURES IN A SOVEREIGN CURRENCY COUNTRY

description: ABSTRACT This paper discusses the financing of public expenditures and the determination of interest rates on short and long public bonds in a country that has monetary sovereignty. The analysis follows the exogenous interest rate approach that combines the notions of endogenous money of modern monetary theory and of functional finance from Lerner. Focusing particularly in the case of Brazil, the paper begins with the analysis of the operational procedures of government financing and the relationship between Treasury and the Central Bank, the relationship between government financing and the short and long term interest rates on public bonds. As a country (not just the public sector) can indeed go bankrupt in terms of foreign currency, this is followed by the analysis of the “sovereign risk” spread and its relationship with the external liabilities in foreign currency of the country (and not of the public sector) and a brief discussion of the relationship between the spread and the ratings of the international agencies. We conclude by very succinctly pointing out some implications of the above analysis to the recent discussion in Brazil (since 2015) on the need of a major “fiscal adjustment”.
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.20020567
title: MULTIPLE JOB HOLDING IN BRAZIL: AN ANALYSIS OF LABOR SUPPLY USING PNAD DATA

description: ABSTRACT The present study has as objective to analyze the determinants of labor supply in the multiple job market in Brazil. We use data from the National Household Sample Survey (PNAD), from 2004 and 2014, and a model with a limited dependent variable, tobit. The results indicate that the market in question is composed mostly of men, heads of families and workers who have a higher educational level. From the estimated supply function, it is shown that male individuals offer more hours of work. From the theoretical viewpoints tested, the reason for restricting hours was relevant and reduced the supply and the reason for age insecurity increases a job offer.
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.20020567.v1
title: MULTIPLE JOB HOLDING IN BRAZIL: AN ANALYSIS OF LABOR SUPPLY USING PNAD DATA

description: ABSTRACT The present study has as objective to analyze the determinants of labor supply in the multiple job market in Brazil. We use data from the National Household Sample Survey (PNAD), from 2004 and 2014, and a model with a limited dependent variable, tobit. The results indicate that the market in question is composed mostly of men, heads of families and workers who have a higher educational level. From the estimated supply function, it is shown that male individuals offer more hours of work. From the theoretical viewpoints tested, the reason for restricting hours was relevant and reduced the supply and the reason for age insecurity increases a job offer.
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.11265791
title: HOW EMPLOYMENT SHAPES INCOME INEQUALITY: A COMPARISON BETWEEN BRAZIL AND THE U.S.

description: ABSTRACT In this study, we analyze the relationship between the development of occupational structure and income inequality in Brazil and the U.S. While both Brazil and the U.S. face high levels of inequality, low socioeconomic development in Brazil notably reduces the proportion of total income that accrues in the bottom two quintiles of the income distribution. In the U.S., inequality is mostly due to unobserved differences within occupations and has grown in large part because of higher earnings among high-skilled workers. Our results highlight that the effects of occupational structure are generally more pronounced at lower levels of economic development. At the higher level of economic development found in the U.S., inequality appears to increase largely due to rising inequality among high-skilled employees, which may be a function of unobserved organizational variables such as firm productivity and market advantage.
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.11265791.v1
title: HOW EMPLOYMENT SHAPES INCOME INEQUALITY: A COMPARISON BETWEEN BRAZIL AND THE U.S.

description: ABSTRACT In this study, we analyze the relationship between the development of occupational structure and income inequality in Brazil and the U.S. While both Brazil and the U.S. face high levels of inequality, low socioeconomic development in Brazil notably reduces the proportion of total income that accrues in the bottom two quintiles of the income distribution. In the U.S., inequality is mostly due to unobserved differences within occupations and has grown in large part because of higher earnings among high-skilled workers. Our results highlight that the effects of occupational structure are generally more pronounced at lower levels of economic development. At the higher level of economic development found in the U.S., inequality appears to increase largely due to rising inequality among high-skilled employees, which may be a function of unobserved organizational variables such as firm productivity and market advantage.
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.11266334
title: BRAZILIAN FINANCIAL CRISIS IN THE 1980S: HISTORICAL PRECEDENT OF AN ECONOMY GOVERNED BY FINANCIAL INTERESTS

description: ABSTRACT Beyond representing coordination or government failures, the Brazilian financial crisis in the 1980s characterized the dominance of financial interests on public policies. This paper shows that such dominance began with the external debt negotiations in 1982, which put international creditors’ interest first. It argues that the imposed external adjustment - specially the exchange rates devaluation, public investment cuts and the hike in real interest rates - generated recession and financial instability (notoriously inflation), which would threat depreciating private wealth. Therefore, both the external adjustment and the private wealth protection only turned possible due to the increasing public deficits and debts - including by transferences of debt from private to public sector. The dominant perspective, found in the literature on the period, blaming government deficits and debts for the financial instability of the 1980s is wrong. Economists, even heterodox ones, still believe that Brazil’s financial crisis in the 1980s resulted from budget deficits and public debts. This paper shows, contrary to the dominant view, that once the public sector had to allow private wealth adjustment to the external conditions imposed by foreign creditors, public deficits were the only possible outcome in that conditions.
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.11266334.v1
title: BRAZILIAN FINANCIAL CRISIS IN THE 1980S: HISTORICAL PRECEDENT OF AN ECONOMY GOVERNED BY FINANCIAL INTERESTS

description: ABSTRACT Beyond representing coordination or government failures, the Brazilian financial crisis in the 1980s characterized the dominance of financial interests on public policies. This paper shows that such dominance began with the external debt negotiations in 1982, which put international creditors’ interest first. It argues that the imposed external adjustment - specially the exchange rates devaluation, public investment cuts and the hike in real interest rates - generated recession and financial instability (notoriously inflation), which would threat depreciating private wealth. Therefore, both the external adjustment and the private wealth protection only turned possible due to the increasing public deficits and debts - including by transferences of debt from private to public sector. The dominant perspective, found in the literature on the period, blaming government deficits and debts for the financial instability of the 1980s is wrong. Economists, even heterodox ones, still believe that Brazil’s financial crisis in the 1980s resulted from budget deficits and public debts. This paper shows, contrary to the dominant view, that once the public sector had to allow private wealth adjustment to the external conditions imposed by foreign creditors, public deficits were the only possible outcome in that conditions.
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.11265821
title: THE ROLE OF THE STATE IN INNOVATION FROM ITS INSTRUMENTS: AN ANALYSIS OF THE PLANO INOVA EMPRESA

description: ABSTRACT The present paper aims to analyze the role of the State in Brazil in stimulating innovation activity by means of a policy instrument named Plano Inova Empresa, which was launched in 2013. The text discusses how the Brazilian government has implemented such a mix of tools to induce and foment innovation activity in the business sector, with all the risk and uncertainty that prevail in this type of endeavor. The analysis makes it is clear that, despite having designed an advanced innovation policy, the government ended up leaving behind such public policy that could have induced effective changes in the behavior of companies. This is believed to have happened because the program lacked tools for mitigating risk and uncertainty.
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.11265821.v1
title: THE ROLE OF THE STATE IN INNOVATION FROM ITS INSTRUMENTS: AN ANALYSIS OF THE PLANO INOVA EMPRESA

description: ABSTRACT The present paper aims to analyze the role of the State in Brazil in stimulating innovation activity by means of a policy instrument named Plano Inova Empresa, which was launched in 2013. The text discusses how the Brazilian government has implemented such a mix of tools to induce and foment innovation activity in the business sector, with all the risk and uncertainty that prevail in this type of endeavor. The analysis makes it is clear that, despite having designed an advanced innovation policy, the government ended up leaving behind such public policy that could have induced effective changes in the behavior of companies. This is believed to have happened because the program lacked tools for mitigating risk and uncertainty.
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.11265815
title: THE DOHA ROUND AND THE EFFECTS OF THE REDUCTION OF TARIFF AND NON-TARIFF BARRIERS: AN ESTIMATION OF BENEFITS FOR BRAZIL USING A COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL

description: ABSTRACT The objective of this article is to simulate reductions of tariff and non-tariff barriers, in the multilateral scope of the Doha Round, and to verify the benefits for Brazil. Therefore, a computable general equilibrium model was estimated using the GTAP software, and four scenarios were simulated. The results show that, for Brazil, in the scenarios in which only tariff reductions are incorporated, the primary and agroindustry sectors would be the most benefited. The multilateral reduction of non-tariff barriers to trade (NTB) would favor, especially, the industrial sectors, of greater technological content. Concerning well-being, scenarios incorporating reductions in NTB or combined reductions in NTB and tariffs are the most beneficial for all regions included in the study, with worldwide gains that can reach over $ 1 trillion.
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.11265815.v1
title: THE DOHA ROUND AND THE EFFECTS OF THE REDUCTION OF TARIFF AND NON-TARIFF BARRIERS: AN ESTIMATION OF BENEFITS FOR BRAZIL USING A COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL

description: ABSTRACT The objective of this article is to simulate reductions of tariff and non-tariff barriers, in the multilateral scope of the Doha Round, and to verify the benefits for Brazil. Therefore, a computable general equilibrium model was estimated using the GTAP software, and four scenarios were simulated. The results show that, for Brazil, in the scenarios in which only tariff reductions are incorporated, the primary and agroindustry sectors would be the most benefited. The multilateral reduction of non-tariff barriers to trade (NTB) would favor, especially, the industrial sectors, of greater technological content. Concerning well-being, scenarios incorporating reductions in NTB or combined reductions in NTB and tariffs are the most beneficial for all regions included in the study, with worldwide gains that can reach over $ 1 trillion.
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.20020570
title: PARTICIPATION AND PROVISION OF WORKING HOURS IN THE SECONDARY JOB MARKET: AN ANALYSIS OF THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR IN BRAZIL

description: ABSTRACT The present study aims at investigating the likelihood of participation and the provision of working hours in the secondary job market for workers in the agricultural sector. The analytical focus relies on socioeconomic attributes of workers and jobs. The study used data extracted from National Household Sample Survey (PNAD), conducted by the IBGE, for the year 2014. To achieve the proposed objectives, the study used the following econometric models: a Probit model, for the decision to participate in a multi-job market; a Tobit model, for the allocation of working hours; and a Double-Hurdle model, which jointly estimated the two equations. Evidence shows that among the main determinants of decision-making in participating in a secondary job market featured experience, education and the condition of being head of family. As for the decision-making concerning the quantity of hours employed in a second job, main determinants were found to be experience, schooling, being married, having children, and having stability at the first job. As for the Double-Hurdle model, the variable for stability in the first job behaved as expected, that is, it decreases the probability of participating in the secondary job market.
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.20020570.v1
title: PARTICIPATION AND PROVISION OF WORKING HOURS IN THE SECONDARY JOB MARKET: AN ANALYSIS OF THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR IN BRAZIL

description: ABSTRACT The present study aims at investigating the likelihood of participation and the provision of working hours in the secondary job market for workers in the agricultural sector. The analytical focus relies on socioeconomic attributes of workers and jobs. The study used data extracted from National Household Sample Survey (PNAD), conducted by the IBGE, for the year 2014. To achieve the proposed objectives, the study used the following econometric models: a Probit model, for the decision to participate in a multi-job market; a Tobit model, for the allocation of working hours; and a Double-Hurdle model, which jointly estimated the two equations. Evidence shows that among the main determinants of decision-making in participating in a secondary job market featured experience, education and the condition of being head of family. As for the decision-making concerning the quantity of hours employed in a second job, main determinants were found to be experience, schooling, being married, having children, and having stability at the first job. As for the Double-Hurdle model, the variable for stability in the first job behaved as expected, that is, it decreases the probability of participating in the secondary job market.
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.20020572
title: EXCHANGE RATE AND EXTERNAL ADJUSTMENT: AN INVESTIGATION WITH ARDL MODELS FOR THE BRICS EMERGING ECONOMIES

description: ABSTRACT The objective of this work is to investigate the role of the exchange rate (level, misalignment and volatility) for the external adjustment of the BRICS (1998 to 2015) using ARDL models. The results indicate a strong asymmetry regarding the role of the exchange rate in the long and short-term adjustment process. For the models estimated with exchange rate misalignment, it was statistically significant for all economies except India, while for the models using exchange rate volatility, only for Brazil there was significance for the short-term adjustment in both models. Finally, the highest speed of adjustment were found in the NARDL model.
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.20020572.v1
title: EXCHANGE RATE AND EXTERNAL ADJUSTMENT: AN INVESTIGATION WITH ARDL MODELS FOR THE BRICS EMERGING ECONOMIES

description: ABSTRACT The objective of this work is to investigate the role of the exchange rate (level, misalignment and volatility) for the external adjustment of the BRICS (1998 to 2015) using ARDL models. The results indicate a strong asymmetry regarding the role of the exchange rate in the long and short-term adjustment process. For the models estimated with exchange rate misalignment, it was statistically significant for all economies except India, while for the models using exchange rate volatility, only for Brazil there was significance for the short-term adjustment in both models. Finally, the highest speed of adjustment were found in the NARDL model.
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.20020575
title: A CASE FOR INDUSTRIAL POLICY? FORECAST RESULTS FROM A DISAGGREGATED BOP-CONSTRAINED GROWTH MODEL FOR BRAZILIAN ECONOMY (2016-2025)

description: ABSTRACT The article aimed to forecast the Brazilian economy’s growth potential in the 2016-2025 period, assuming the absence of changes in industrial policy. It is based on a formal growth model constrained by the balance of payments (BOP) developed by the authors and disaggregated into three sectors (farming, industry, and services). All its parameters were econometrically estimated, including those of the world economy relevant to the Brazilian economy’s performance. Assuming that the current macroeconomic management “tripod” was maintained in the country, the basic interest rate and exchange rate policy were calibrated to generate the maximum growth rate allowed by the external constraint compatible with the maintenance of inflation in target each year. Forecasts were also made about the performance of the three sectors’ key variables, resulting from such calibration. Forecasted potential GDP and productivity growth were low (even by recent historical standards) and decreasing over time, with slower growth in the industrial sector than in other ones. The results revealed the critical importance of the industrial sector for such performance, suggesting that an efficient industrial policy could significantly increase the Brazilian economy’s growth potential.
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.20020575.v1
title: A CASE FOR INDUSTRIAL POLICY? FORECAST RESULTS FROM A DISAGGREGATED BOP-CONSTRAINED GROWTH MODEL FOR BRAZILIAN ECONOMY (2016-2025)

description: ABSTRACT The article aimed to forecast the Brazilian economy’s growth potential in the 2016-2025 period, assuming the absence of changes in industrial policy. It is based on a formal growth model constrained by the balance of payments (BOP) developed by the authors and disaggregated into three sectors (farming, industry, and services). All its parameters were econometrically estimated, including those of the world economy relevant to the Brazilian economy’s performance. Assuming that the current macroeconomic management “tripod” was maintained in the country, the basic interest rate and exchange rate policy were calibrated to generate the maximum growth rate allowed by the external constraint compatible with the maintenance of inflation in target each year. Forecasts were also made about the performance of the three sectors’ key variables, resulting from such calibration. Forecasted potential GDP and productivity growth were low (even by recent historical standards) and decreasing over time, with slower growth in the industrial sector than in other ones. The results revealed the critical importance of the industrial sector for such performance, suggesting that an efficient industrial policy could significantly increase the Brazilian economy’s growth potential.
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.20020576
title: THE ROLE OF INHERITANCE AND TAXATION ON WEALTH AND INCOME DISTRIBUTION IN BRAZIL AND THE STATE OF RIO GRANDE DO SUL

description: ABSTRACT This article analyzes the role of inheritance and donation on the distribution of wealth and income in Brazil and the state of Rio Grande do Sul. Although several scholars coming from branches of Social Sciences have already scrutinized the influence that slavery and colonial exploitation had - and still have - in the Brazil’s development, no work in the economic literature has thus far attempted to estimate Brazil’s current inheritance stock in monetary terms. With this in mind, this paper has three specific goals: i) to estimate, in accordance with an original framework, the inheritance stock of Brazil (and Rio Grande do Sul) and their flow with respect to national income and household disposable income; ii) to measure potential revenue through the application of a more progressive taxation of inheritance and donations based on inheritance stock estimates and iii) to simulate the distributional effect of reallocating these new fiscal resources. It is important to note, however, that the simulations presented in this paper are static exercises, and do not intend to capture general equilibrium or behavioral effects.
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.20020576.v1
title: THE ROLE OF INHERITANCE AND TAXATION ON WEALTH AND INCOME DISTRIBUTION IN BRAZIL AND THE STATE OF RIO GRANDE DO SUL

description: ABSTRACT This article analyzes the role of inheritance and donation on the distribution of wealth and income in Brazil and the state of Rio Grande do Sul. Although several scholars coming from branches of Social Sciences have already scrutinized the influence that slavery and colonial exploitation had - and still have - in the Brazil’s development, no work in the economic literature has thus far attempted to estimate Brazil’s current inheritance stock in monetary terms. With this in mind, this paper has three specific goals: i) to estimate, in accordance with an original framework, the inheritance stock of Brazil (and Rio Grande do Sul) and their flow with respect to national income and household disposable income; ii) to measure potential revenue through the application of a more progressive taxation of inheritance and donations based on inheritance stock estimates and iii) to simulate the distributional effect of reallocating these new fiscal resources. It is important to note, however, that the simulations presented in this paper are static exercises, and do not intend to capture general equilibrium or behavioral effects.