DOI: 10.5061/dryad.stqjq2cfw
title: Predicting <em>Agriotes</em> larval activity: Validation of the prognosis model SIMAGRIO-W to predict larval activity in top soil layers for <em>Agriotes</em> larvae in Eastern Austria

description: Wireworms within the genus Agriotes (Coleoptera: Elateridae) can cause
 substantial damage to agricultural crops. The vertical movements of these
 pest insects in the soil make the timing of control measures a difficult
 task. The forecast model SIMAGRIO-W utilises soil temperature and moisture
 data to predict the migration of Agriotes wireworms to the upper soil
 layer. The model distinguishes between two risk levels: low risk (less
 than 30% of the wireworm population in the upper soil layer) and high risk
 (more than 30%), which are considered adequate for practical purposes. In
 this study, SIMAGRIO-W was tested on arable land in eastern Austria. At
 three sites in Traiskirchen (Lower Austria; site 1) and Bruck/Leitha
 (Lower Austria; sites 2 and 3), wireworm activities in the upper 15 cm of
 the soil were measured with wireworm bait traps from the middle of July
 until the end of October 2013. At sites 1 and 3, activity measurements
 were extended to spring 2014. In the last trapping period of 2013, control
 transects were installed at a distance of 10 m from the regular transects
 at sites 1, 2, and 4 (= control transect; Figure 2). The intention was to
 investigate whether permanent wireworm sampling had falsified the results
 by thinning out the wireworm populations at the regular transects. Over
 the entire investigation period, data loggers recorded soil moisture and
 temperature every 30 minutes in 15 cm and 80 cm soil depth at each site.
 Moisture and temperature sensors were installed at the beginning of the
 experiment in potholes, which were backfilled with soil after applying the
 measuring equipment. The measured values of soil temperature, soil
 moisture, and soil type were used to simulate the percentage of the
 Agriotes wireworm population in the top soil layer of each site by the use
 of SIMAGRIO-W. The daily calculated forecasts were averaged for each
 trapping period and afterwards compared with the measured wireworm
 activities.
description: # Predicting *Agriotes* larval activity: Validation of the prognosis model
 SIMAGRIO-W to predict larval activity in top soil layers for *Agriotes*
 larvae in Eastern Austria Dataset DOI:
 [10.5061/dryad.stqjq2cfw](10.5061/dryad.stqjq2cfw) ## Description of the
 data and file structure The forecast model SIMAGRIO-W utilises soil
 temperature and moisture data to predict the migration of *Agriotes*
 wireworms to the upper soil layer. The model distinguishes between two
 risk levels: low risk (less than 30% of the wireworm population in the
 upper soil layer) and high risk (more than 30%), which are considered
 adequate for practical purposes. In German field sites, the model
 demonstrated an 80% success rate across four soil types. We tested the
 SIMAGRIO-W model under the warm and dry climate in Eastern Austria. ###
 Files and variables #### File: Wireworm-Data_2013-2014(2).xlsx
 **Description:** At three sites in Traiskirchen (Lower Austria; site 1)
 and Bruck/Leitha (Lower Austria; sites 2 and 3), wireworm activities in
 the upper 15 cm of the soil were measured with wireworm bait traps from
 the middle of July until the end of October 2013. A transect of 5 bait
 traps was installed within the top soil layer at each site. At sites 1 and
 3, activity measurements were extended to spring 2014. In the last
 trapping period of 2013, control transects were installed at a distance of
 10 m from the regular transects at sites 1, 2, and 4 (= control
 transect). From August 12 up to September 23, 2013, five additional traps
 were installed at site 1 at a distance of one meter from the regular
 transect (= additional transect). In contrast to the other traps, the
 additional traps were emptied every 7 days. Thus, we investigated whether
 the amount of wireworm catches was influenced by the duration of a
 trapping period since significantly shorter trapping periods were chosen
 when the model was developed and calibrated in Germany. The **headings**
 are written in **bold type**. ##### Variables * aust_mean: The mean number
 of *A. ustulatus* wireworms from five bait traps on the regular transect *
 abrev_mean: The mean number of *A. brevis* wireworms from five bait traps
 on the regular transect * atot_mean: The mean number of all *Agriotes*
 wireworms from five bait traps on the regular transect * aust_sem:
 Standard error of the mean for *A. ustulatus* wireworms from five bait
 traps on the regular transect * abrev_sem: Standard error of the mean for
 *A. brevis* wireworms from five bait traps on the regular transect *
 atot_sem: Standard error of the mean for all *Agriotes* wireworms from
 five bait traps on the regular transect * atot_day_trap: All *Agriotes*
 wireworms per day and per trap on the regular transect * atot_pr: All
 *Agriotes* wireworms caught per day per trap compared as a percentage of
 the maximum catch at the site, which is assumed to be 100% of the
 population. * atot_mean_control_transect: The mean number of all
 *Agriotes* wireworms from five bait traps on the control transect;
 Wireworm surveys were not carried out continuously on the control
 transects. On the dates when no wireworms were collected using bait traps,
 the cells were filled with 'n/a'. * atot_sem_control_transect:
 Standard error of the mean for all *Agriotes* wireworms from five bait
 traps on the control transect; Wireworm surveys were not carried out
 continuously on the control transects. On the dates when no wireworms were
 collected using bait traps, the cells were filled with 'n/a'. *
 atot_mean_add_transect: The mean number of all *Agriotes* wireworms from
 five bait traps on the additional transect; Wireworm surveys were not
 carried out continuously on the additional transects. On the dates when no
 wireworms were collected using bait traps, the cells were filled with
 'n/a'. * atot_sem_add_transect: Standard error of the mean for
 all *Agriotes* wireworms from five bait traps on the additional transect;
 Wireworm surveys were not carried out continuously on the additional
 transects. On the dates when no wireworms were collected using bait traps,
 the cells were filled with 'n/a'. #### File:
 SIMAGRIO-W-Data_2013-2014.xlsx **Description:** The measured values of
 soil temperature, soil moisture, and soil type were used to simulate the
 percentage of the *Agriotes* wireworm population in the top soil layer of
 each site by the use of SIMAGRIO-W Jung et al. (2012) for the sites
 Traiskirchen, Bruck A, and Bruck B. The daily calculated forecasts were
 averaged for each trapping period and afterwards compared with the
 measured activities. Jung et al. (2012) specified the validation threshold
 with a percentage of 30 % of the *Agriotes* population in the upper 15 cm
 of the soil. A value &gt; 30 % was considered as high activity (i.e., high
 risk). A trapping period was considered a hit for the model if both the
 simulated and the measured values were higher or lower than the validation
 threshold. Only in trapping periods in which, at least for one day,
 wireworm activity was predicted to be higher than 10 % by the 1st model
 part, the predictions of the 2nd model part have been taken into account.
 Otherwise, an *Agriotes* activity less than or equal to 10 % was assumed. 
 In a first step (i.e., 1st model part), daily average values of soil
 moisture (percentage by volume) and temperature are used to run a
 bivariate Gaussian regression for determining the percentage of the
 wireworm population, which is currently located in the upper 15 cm of the
 soil. For the first half of the year, moisture data in 15 cm soil depth,
 for the second half of the year, moisture data in 80 cm soil depth are
 used to carry out the calculation. In the event that the percentage of the
 wireworm population is below the 10 % threshold, the simulation will be
 stopped. If the value is equal to or larger than 10 %, the calculation
 passes over to the next step (i.e., 2nd model part), which determines the
 exact percentage of the population in the topsoil by using logistic
 regressions based on soil moisture and soil type. The calculation takes
 into account soil moisture as a percentage of field capacity. The
 **headings** are written in **bold type**. ##### Variables * temp 15cm-M:
 Temperature at 15cm soil depth * moist 15cm-S: Moisture at 15cm soil depth
 * SIMAGRIO-W (Tu3) 1st part-M: Result of the 1st part of the model; The
 data are written in bold type when the percentage of the wireworm
 population exceeds 10%. * SIMAGRIO-W (Tu3) 2nd part-M: Result of the 2nd
 part of the model * WW catches main transekt A. total (%): All *Agriotes
 *wireworms caught per day per trap on the main transect compared as a
 percentage of the maximum catch at the site, which is assumed to be 100%
 of the population. **Empty cells (n/a)** * On days when bait traps were
 buried or changed, no measurement or survey data were collected, and no
 wireworm catches were registered. * The collection of weather data and
 wireworm surveys was interrupted when the trial sites were cultivated
 (Traiskirchen: 17–22 October 2013; Bruck A and Bruck B: 1 August 2013;
 Bruck B: 9–14 May 2014). * The collection of weather data and wireworm
 surveys was suspended outside of the growing season (Traiskirchen: 7
 November 2013 – 20 March 2014; Bruck B: 24 October 2013 – 15 April 2014).
 ## Code/software NA