DOI: 10.5061/dryad.73n5tb35v
title: The greater role of Southern Ocean warming compared to Arctic Ocean warming in shifting future tropical rainfall patterns

description: The recent rapid decline in Antarctic sea ice highlights the need to
 understand whether rising Southern Ocean temperatures have an influence on
 global climate. While Arctic warming has been extensively studied, the
 importance of Southern Ocean warming is emerging only now.
  Multi-model simulations show that over 1.5°C of Southern Ocean
 surface warming can offset the projected northward shift in tropical
 zonal-mean precipitation by the mid-21st century, driven by stronger
 northern high-latitude warming under rising greenhouse gas concentrations.
 SST nudging experiments suggest that a 1.0°C warming in the Southern Ocean
 could impact tropical precipitation as significantly as a 1.5°C warming in
 the Arctic. Regionally, Southern Ocean warming increases rainfall in
 northeastern Brazil while heightening drought risks in the Sahel. These
 effects are comparable to, or slightly more pronounced than, those caused
 by a weakening Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and the
 associated development of the North Atlantic warming hole. Thus, Southern
 Ocean warming may play a more crucial role than Arctic warming in shaping
 tropical climate patterns in the coming decades.
description: # The greater role of Southern Ocean warming compared to Arctic Ocean
 warming in shifting future tropical rainfall patterns This Readme.txt file
 was generated on 2024-08-21 by Hyein Jeong GENERAL INFORMATION 1. Title of
 Dataset: The greater role of Southern Ocean warming compared to Arctic
 Ocean warming in shifting future tropical rainfall patterns 2. Author
 Information Name: Hyein Jeong Institution: Hanyang University Email:
 [hijeong820310@gmail.com](mailto:hijeong820310@gmail.com) DATA & FILE
 OVERVIEW 1. File List: CESM2.SSTnudging.warmAO.41-60.nc
 CESM2.SSTnudging.warmSO.41-60.nc
 CESM2.SSTnudging.Sensitivity.warmAO.sst.nc
 CESM2.SSTnudging.Sensitivity.warmAO.prec.nc
 CESM2.SSTnudging.Sensitivity.warmSO.sst.nc
 CESM2.SSTnudging.Sensitivity.warmSO.prec.nc
 Calc.SSP126.Normalized.dSST.dtas.dpr.2046-2065.minus.1995-2014.ncl
 Calc.SSP245.Normalized.dSST.dtas.dpr.2046-2065.minus.1995-2014.ncl
 Calc.SSP370.Normalized.dSST.dtas.dpr.2046-2065.minus.1995-2014.ncl
 Calc.SSP585.Normalized.dSST.dtas.dpr.2046-2065.minus.1995-2014.ncl
 Fig1.ncl Fig2.ncl Fig3.ncl Fig4.ncl Fig5.ncl Fig6.ncl METHODOLOGICAL
 INFORMATION 1. Description of methods used for collection/generation of
 data: We conducted idealized SST nudging simulations to isolate the
 climate responses to warming in the Arctic and Southern Ocean SSTs. This
 involved restoring the CMIP6 model-simulated SSTs in the Arctic Ocean
 north of 57°N and the Southern Ocean south of 52°S, using a 5-day
 relaxation time scale. 1. Methods for processing the data: We performed
 pacemaker simulation with CESM2 in LENOVO SD530. 2. Instrument- or
 software-specific information needed to interpret the data: All versions
 of NCL (Ncar Command Language) All versions of Grads All versions of
 Python DATA-SPECIFIC INFORMATION FOR: The file name of All files look like
 CESM2.SSTnudging.warmAO.41-60.nc CESM2: CESM2 simulated model data
 SSTnudging: Simulation name warmAO/warmSO: SST nudging region 41-60:
 Analyzed period from 100-years simulation
 \[CESM2.SSTnudging.warmAO.41-60.nc] 1. Number of variables: 2 2. Number of
 cases/rows: 96x144 (Latitude x Longitude) 3. Variable List: sst (sea
 surface temperature), degree C prec (precipitation), mm/day 4. Missing
 value of data: 1e+37 5. File formats: NetCDF The file name of All files
 look like CESM2.SSTnudging.Sensitivity.warmAO.sst.nc CESM2: CESM2
 simulated model data SSTnudging: Simulation name Sensitivity: Sensitivity
 test warmAO/warmSO: SST nudging region sst: variable
 \[CESM2.SSTnudging.Sensitivity.warmAO.sst.nc] 1. Number of variables: 1 2.
 Number of cases/rows: 5x96x144 (level x Latitude x Longitude) 3. Variable
 List: sst (sea surface temperature), degree C 4. Missing value of data:
 1e+37 5. File formats: NetCDF The file name of All files look like
 CESM2.SSTnudging.Sensitivity.warmAO.prec.nc CESM2: CESM2 simulated model
 data SSTnudging: Simulation name Sensitivity: Sensitivity test
 warmAO/warmSO: SST nudging region prec: variable
 \[CESM2.SSTnudging.Sensitivity.warmAO.prec.nc] 1. Number of variables: 1
 2. Number of cases/rows: 5x1800x3600 (level x Latitude x Longitude) 3.
 Variable List: prec (precipitation), mm/day 4. Missing value of data:
 1e+37 5. File formats: NetCDF