DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18266153
title: Data and model repository for Agrimate analysis for study "Global food security impacts of Russian wheat failure attributed to anthropogenic climate change"

description: This repository contains the input data, output data, and the version of the Agrimate model as well as scripts for post-processing raw output data for the associated the study.

The attribution study has two different harvest scenarios: scenario = [factual, counterfactual].Each attribution harvest scenario has 1008 realisations: realisation = [0, 1, 2, 3, ..., 1007]The attribution study considers two policy options: i) historically reported export restrictions (suffix: "her") and ii) historically reported export restriction with No Russian restrictions between July 2010 - June 2010 (suffix: "nrr"). 

input.zip



Contains files necessary to run Agrimate model

harvest anomly files:



 harvest-anomalies_crop=wheat_source=FAOsince_2005_{scenario}-{realisation}.csv



harvest trend files:



harvest-trends_crop=wheat_source=FAOsince_2005_{scenario}-{realisation}.csv



food production, consumption, export, imports per country for average baseline 2007-2009



food-balance_baseline=2007-2009_crop=wheat.csv



 trade flows between countries for average baseline 2007-2009



trade-flows_baseline=2007-2009_crop=wheat.csv



historical export restriction implemented between 2007-2011



export-restrictions_crop=wheat_source=2007-2011.csv



historical export restriction implemented between 2007-2011 WITHOUT Russian export ban between July 2010 - June 2011



export-restrictions_crop=wheat_source=2007-2011-nrr.csv



regional parameters for consumption elasticitiy, demand elasticity, and storage-to-use ratio averaged for 2007-2009



parameters_baseline=2007-2009_crop=wheat_source=empirical.csv



national population data averaged for 2007-2009



population_histsoc_national_annual_averaged_2007-2009.csv



monthly historical price for hard red wheat



historical_hrw_price_based_on_cmo_calendar_year.csv




 

output.zip

   raw



    Contains raw output files from Agrimate, which contains among others harvest and consumption per macro region or transaction price between macro regions on sub-annual time resolution (24 time steps per year) for the respective scenario and realisation. Each simulation has a 4-year (=96 time steps) spin-up period at the beginning, where the model dynamically evolve to its dynamic unperturbed baseline. After this (beginning with 2005), the historically observed regional production anomalies and export restrictions perturb the baseline production and trade causing trade repercussions simulated by Agriamte. Only the Russian production anomaly in calendar year 2010 is changed for different scenarios {scenario} and different realisation {realisation}. For post-simulation analysis only the years 2010 and 2011 are used. The different policy scenarios {policy} are in the respective folders and additionally tagged via {policy} = [her, nrr]


    historical_export_restrictions



raw output with historically reported export restrictions



agrimate_her_{scenario}-{realisation}.nc



raw output for best estimate attribution fit for 2010 Russian harvest failure



agrimate_her_2010-fit.nc#




      no_russian_restrictions



raw output with reported export restrictions with no russian export restrictions



agrimate_nrr_{scenario}-{realisation}.nc



raw output for best estimate attribution fit for 2010 Russian harvest failure



agrimate_nrr_2010-fit.nc




   

    processed



Contains processed output files from Agrimate as csv.

Global and Russian harvest in metric tons for each {scenario} and {realisation} for historically reported export restrictions



harvests_agrimate_her.csv



Global and Russian harvest in metric tons for each {scenario} and {realisation} for reported export restrictions with no Russian restrictions



harvests_agrimate_nrr.csv



Global and Russian harvest in metric tons for best estimate attribution fit for 2010 Russian harvest failure



harvests_agrimate_her_2010-fit.csv



World market wheat price for annual average as well as maximum for the years 2010, 2011, 2012 and as average over 2010-2012 in USD per ton for each {scenario} and {realisation} for historically reported export restrictions



world_market_prices_her.csv



World market wheat price for annual average as well as maximum for the years 2010, 2011, 2012 and as average over 2010-2012 in USD per ton for each {scenario} and {realisation} for historically reported export restrictions



world_market_prices_nrr.csv



World market wheat price for annual average as well as maximum for the years 2010, 2011, 2012 and as average over 2010-2012 in USD per ton for each {scenario} and {realisation} for historically reported export restrictions



world_market_prices_her_2010-fit.csv



Regional consumption in metric tons and million calories per capita per year for 2010 and 2011 for each {scenario} and {realisation} for historically reported export restrictions



regional_consumption_her.csv



Regional consumption in metric tons and million calories per capita per year for 2010 and 2011 for each {scenario} and {realisation} for reported export restrictions with no Russian restrictions



 regional_consumption_nrr.csv



Regional consumption in metric tons and million calories per capita per year for 2010 and 2011 for each {scenario} and {realisation} ssfor best estimate attribution fit for 2010 Russian harvest failure



regional_consumption_her_2010-fit.csv



Regional consumer prices in USD per ton for 2010 and 2011 for each {scenario} and {realisation} for historically reported export restrictions



regional_consumer_prices_her.csv



Regional consumer price in USD per ton for 2010 and 2011 for each {scenario} and {realisation} for reported export restrictions with no Russian restrictions



 regional_consumer_prices_nrr.csv