DOI: 10.5061/dryad.gqnk98t2m
title: Data from: Weather extremes in the Mediterranean winter are associated with reduced apparent survival and delayed initiation of egg-laying in a migratory raptor

description: Climate change increases the frequency of extreme weather events, to which
 migratory raptors are particularly vulnerable. We monitored a population
 of Eurasian Kestrels (Falco tinnunculus) breeding in nest boxes in western
 Finland (approx. 63°N, 23°E) and applied a capture–mark–recapture scheme
 to adults encountered at nests from 1985 to 2013 to examine how
 environmental conditions affect their apparent survival. We included
 density data of their primary prey (voles), collected during the early
 breeding season within the study area, as a predictor of annual survival.
 We also recorded the initiation dates of egg laying from 1985 to 2018 to
 test whether variables representing winter weather conditions predict
 laying phenology, with prey density included as a covariate. We found that
 both frequent and infrequent winter rain were associated with reduced
 apparent survival, and that vole abundance in the breeding area was
 negatively correlated with apparent survival. Additionally, we found that
 frequent precipitation in the wintering grounds led to delayed laying the
 following spring in years of low vole abundance.
description: Breeding adult kestrels were captured at their nests using
 swing-door traps. Each individual, identified by a unique leg-ring number,
 was assigned a capture history by arranging successful capture events
 (denoted as “1”) and capture occasions during which the individual was not
 detected (denoted as “0”) into a timeline of 29 digits, with each digit
 representing a capture occasion (year). Captured individuals were sexed
 and aged into two classes: second-year (“2”) and after–second-year
 (“&gt;2”). Timing of egg laying was estimated
 either by revisiting nests with incomplete clutches or by back-dating from
 the hatching date, assuming a two-day laying interval and a 30-day
 incubation period. Data on Eurasian Kestrels were
 accompanied by annual abundance indices of their primary prey (voles of
 the genera <em>Microtus</em> and <em>Myodes</em>),
 collected in mid-May within the study area. The number of voles trapped
 with snap traps during one sampling period was totaled and divided by the
 number of trap-nights to derive an index of prey abundance.
description: # Data from: Weather extremes in the Mediterranean winter are associated
 with reduced apparent survival and delayed initiation of egg-laying in a
 migratory raptor Dataset DOI:
 [10.5061/dryad.gqnk98t2m](https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.gqnk98t2m) ##
 Description of the data and file structure Data were collected to estimate
 apparent survival rate and timing of laying of Eurasian Kestrels in
 relation to the abundance of main prey (voles) and various weather
 indicators. ### Files and variables #### File:
 Falco_tinnunculus_breeding_attempts.csv **Description:** Nesting attempts
 of Eurasian Kestrels recorded in 1985–2018 at Kauhava-Lapua study area
 located in Western Finland **Missing values** are indicated by
 "NA" ##### Variables * id: unique ID no. of the nesting attempt
 * year: year during which the nesting attempt occurred * box: unique ID of
 the nest-box or natural stick nest in which the nesting attempt occurred *
 lon_j: longitudinal WGS 84 coordinates of the nesting attempt with 1e-6
 degree jitter added to duplicate coordinates * lat_j: latitudinal WGS 84
 coordinates of the nesting attempt with 1e-6 degree jitter added to
 duplicate coordinates * feband: individual band ID of the female parent *
 feage: age of the female parent as calendar years (2 = second-year, &gt;2
 = older than second-year) * feday: date of capture of the female parent (1
 = April 1st) * maband: individual band ID of the male parent * maage: age
 of the male parent as calendar years (2 = second-year, &gt;2 = older than
 second-year) * maday: date of capture of the male parent (1 = April 1st) *
 laydate: date of laying of the first egg (1 = April 1st) *
 voles_unstandardised: abundance index of voles (Microtus and Myodes)
 during May in Kauhava-Lapua study area (unstandardised) * voles: abundance
 index of voles (Microtus and Myodes) during May in Kauhava-Lapua study
 area (standardised) #### File: Falco_tinnunculus_encounters.csv
 **Description:** Encounter events of breeding Eurasian Kestrels captured
 at their nests in 1985–2013 at Kauhava-Lapua study area located in Western
 Finland **Missing values** are indicated by "NA" ##### Variables
 * id: ID no. of the corresponding nesting attempt * year: year during
 which the encounter occurred * box: ID of the nest-box or natural stick
 nest in which the corresponding nesting attempt occurred * band: band ID
 of the encountered individual * sex: sex of the encountered individual (M
 = male, F = female) * age: age of the encountered individual as calendar
 years (2 = second-year, &gt;2 = older than second-year) *
 capturedate: date of encounter (1 = April 1st) * laydate: date of laying
 of the first egg (1 = April 1st) of the corresponding nesting attempt *
 voles_unstandardised: abundance index of voles (Microtus and Myodes)
 during May in Kauhava-Lapua study area (unstandardised) * voles: abundance
 index of voles (Microtus and Myodes) during May in Kauhava-Lapua study
 area (standardised) #### File: Falco_tinnunculus_capture_histories.csv
 **Description:** Complete capture histories of breeding Eurasian Kestrels
 captured at their nests in 1985–2013 (one capture occasion per year) at
 Kauhava-Lapua study area located in Western Finland ##### Variables *
 band: individual band ID * ch: capture history; each digit represents one
 capture occasion (1 = encountered, 0 = not encountered) * sex: sex of the
 individual (M = male, F = female) * age.1985: age as calendar years (0 =
 preceding first encounter, 2 = second-year, &gt;2 = older than
 second-year) in 1985 * age.1986: age as calendar years (0 = preceding
 first encounter, 2 = second-year, &gt;2 = older than second-year) in 1986
 * age.1987: age as calendar years (0 = preceding first encounter, 2 =
 second-year, &gt;2 = older than second-year) in 1987 * age.1988: age as
 calendar years (0 = preceding first encounter, 2 = second-year, &gt;2 =
 older than second-year) in 1988 * age.1989: age as calendar years (0 =
 preceding first encounter, 2 = second-year, &gt;2 = older than
 second-year) in 1989 * age.1990: age as calendar years (0 = preceding
 first encounter, 2 = second-year, &gt;2 = older than second-year) in 1990
 * age.1991: age as calendar years (0 = preceding first encounter, 2 =
 second-year, &gt;2 = older than second-year) in 1991 * age.1992: age as
 calendar years (0 = preceding first encounter, 2 = second-year, &gt;2 =
 older than second-year) in 1992 * age.1993: age as calendar years (0 =
 preceding first encounter, 2 = second-year, &gt;2 = older than
 second-year) in 1993 * age.1994: age as calendar years (0 = preceding
 first encounter, 2 = second-year, &gt;2 = older than second-year) in 1994
 * age.1995: age as calendar years (0 = preceding first encounter, 2 =
 second-year, &gt;2 = older than second-year) in 1995 * age.1996: age as
 calendar years (0 = preceding first encounter, 2 = second-year, &gt;2 =
 older than second-year) in 1996 * age.1997: age as calendar years (0 =
 preceding first encounter, 2 = second-year, &gt;2 = older than
 second-year) in 1997 * age.1998: age as calendar years (0 = preceding
 first encounter, 2 = second-year, &gt;2 = older than second-year) in 1998
 * age.1999: age as calendar years (0 = preceding first encounter, 2 =
 second-year, &gt;2 = older than second-year) in 1999 * age.2000: age as
 calendar years (0 = preceding first encounter, 2 = second-year, &gt;2 =
 older than second-year) in 2000 * age.2001: age as calendar years (0 =
 preceding first encounter, 2 = second-year, &gt;2 = older than
 second-year) in 2001 * age.2002: age as calendar years (0 = preceding
 first encounter, 2 = second-year, &gt;2 = older than second-year) in 2002
 * age.2003: age as calendar years (0 = preceding first encounter, 2 =
 second-year, &gt;2 = older than second-year) in 2003 * age.2004: age as
 calendar years (0 = preceding first encounter, 2 = second-year, &gt;2 =
 older than second-year) in 2004 * age.2005: age as calendar years (0 =
 preceding first encounter, 2 = second-year, &gt;2 = older than
 second-year) in 2005 * age.2006: age as calendar years (0 = preceding
 first encounter, 2 = second-year, &gt;2 = older than second-year) in 2006
 * age.2007: age as calendar years (0 = preceding first encounter, 2 =
 second-year, &gt;2 = older than second-year) in 2007 * age.2008: age as
 calendar years (0 = preceding first encounter, 2 = second-year, &gt;2 =
 older than second-year) in 2008 * age.2009: age as calendar years (0 =
 preceding first encounter, 2 = second-year, &gt;2 = older than
 second-year) in 2009 * age.2010: age as calendar years (0 = preceding
 first encounter, 2 = second-year, &gt;2 = older than second-year) in 2010
 * age.2011: age as calendar years (0 = preceding first encounter, 2 =
 second-year, &gt;2 = older than second-year) in 2011 * age.2012: age as
 calendar years (0 = preceding first encounter, 2 = second-year, &gt;2 =
 older than second-year) in 2012 * age.2013: age as calendar years (0 =
 preceding first encounter, 2 = second-year, &gt;2 = older than
 second-year) in 2013 * tsm.1985: time since marking (0 = first encounter
 or preceding first encounter, 1 = all subsequent capture occasions) in
 1985 * tsm.1986: time since marking (0 = first encounter or preceding
 first encounter, 1 = all subsequent capture occasions) in 1986 *
 tsm.1987: time since marking (0 = first encounter or preceding first
 encounter, 1 = all subsequent capture occasions) in 1987 * tsm.1988: time
 since marking (0 = first encounter or preceding first encounter, 1 = all
 subsequent capture occasions) in 1988 * tsm.1989: time since marking (0 =
 first encounter or preceding first encounter, 1 = all subsequent capture
 occasions) in 1989 * tsm.1990: time since marking (0 = first encounter or
 preceding first encounter, 1 = all subsequent capture occasions) in 1990 *
 tsm.1991: time since marking (0 = first encounter or preceding first
 encounter, 1 = all subsequent capture occasions) in 1991 * tsm.1992: time
 since marking (0 = first encounter or preceding first encounter, 1 = all
 subsequent capture occasions) in 1992 * tsm.1993: time since marking (0 =
 first encounter or preceding first encounter, 1 = all subsequent capture
 occasions) in 1993 * tsm.1994: time since marking (0 = first encounter or
 preceding first encounter, 1 = all subsequent capture occasions) in 1994 *
 tsm.1995: time since marking (0 = first encounter or preceding first
 encounter, 1 = all subsequent capture occasions) in 1995 * tsm.1996: time
 since marking (0 = first encounter or preceding first encounter, 1 = all
 subsequent capture occasions) in 1996 * tsm.1997: time since marking (0 =
 first encounter or preceding first encounter, 1 = all subsequent capture
 occasions) in 1997 * tsm.1998: time since marking (0 = first encounter or
 preceding first encounter, 1 = all subsequent capture occasions) in 1998 *
 tsm.1999: time since marking (0 = first encounter or preceding first
 encounter, 1 = all subsequent capture occasions) in 1999 * tsm.2000: time
 since marking (0 = first encounter or preceding first encounter, 1 = all
 subsequent capture occasions) in 2000 * tsm.2001: time since marking (0 =
 first encounter or preceding first encounter, 1 = all subsequent capture
 occasions) in 2001 * tsm.2002: time since marking (0 = first encounter or
 preceding first encounter, 1 = all subsequent capture occasions) in 2002 *
 tsm.2003: time since marking (0 = first encounter or preceding first
 encounter, 1 = all subsequent capture occasions) in 2003 * tsm.2004: time
 since marking (0 = first encounter or preceding first encounter, 1 = all
 subsequent capture occasions) in 2004 * tsm.2005: time since marking (0 =
 first encounter or preceding first encounter, 1 = all subsequent capture
 occasions) in 2005 * tsm.2006: time since marking (0 = first encounter or
 preceding first encounter, 1 = all subsequent capture occasions) in 2006 *
 tsm.2007: time since marking (0 = first encounter or preceding first
 encounter, 1 = all subsequent capture occasions) in 2007 * tsm.2008: time
 since marking (0 = first encounter or preceding first encounter, 1 = all
 subsequent capture occasions) in 2008 * tsm.2009: time since marking (0 =
 first encounter or preceding first encounter, 1 = all subsequent capture
 occasions) in 2009 * tsm.2010: time since marking (0 = first encounter or
 preceding first encounter, 1 = all subsequent capture occasions) in 2010 *
 tsm.2011: time since marking (0 = first encounter or preceding first
 encounter, 1 = all subsequent capture occasions) in 2011 * tsm.2012: time
 since marking (0 = first encounter or preceding first encounter, 1 = all
 subsequent capture occasions) in 2012 * tsm.2013: time since marking (0 =
 first encounter or preceding first encounter, 1 = all subsequent capture
 occasions) in 2013 * voles.1985: abundance index of voles (Microtus and
 Myodes) during May in Kauhava-Lapua study area (standardised) in 1985 *
 voles.1986: abundance index of voles (Microtus and Myodes) during May in
 Kauhava-Lapua study area (standardised) in 1986 * voles.1987: abundance
 index of voles (Microtus and Myodes) during May in Kauhava-Lapua study
 area (standardised) in 1987 * voles.1988: abundance index of voles
 (Microtus and Myodes) during May in Kauhava-Lapua study area
 (standardised) in 1988 * voles.1989: abundance index of voles (Microtus
 and Myodes) during May in Kauhava-Lapua study area (standardised) in 1989
 * voles.1990: abundance index of voles (Microtus and Myodes) during May in
 Kauhava-Lapua study area (standardised) in 1990 * voles.1991: abundance
 index of voles (Microtus and Myodes) during May in Kauhava-Lapua study
 area (standardised) in 1991 * voles.1992: abundance index of voles
 (Microtus and Myodes) during May in Kauhava-Lapua study area
 (standardised) in 1992 * voles.1993: abundance index of voles (Microtus
 and Myodes) during May in Kauhava-Lapua study area (standardised) in 1993
 * voles.1994: abundance index of voles (Microtus and Myodes) during May in
 Kauhava-Lapua study area (standardised) in 1994 * voles.1995: abundance
 index of voles (Microtus and Myodes) during May in Kauhava-Lapua study
 area (standardised) in 1995 * voles.1996: abundance index of voles
 (Microtus and Myodes) during May in Kauhava-Lapua study area
 (standardised) in 1996 * voles.1997: abundance index of voles (Microtus
 and Myodes) during May in Kauhava-Lapua study area (standardised) in 1997
 * voles.1998: abundance index of voles (Microtus and Myodes) during May in
 Kauhava-Lapua study area (standardised) in 1998 * voles.1999: abundance
 index of voles (Microtus and Myodes) during May in Kauhava-Lapua study
 area (standardised) in 1999 * voles.2000: abundance index of voles
 (Microtus and Myodes) during May in Kauhava-Lapua study area
 (standardised) in 2000 * voles.2001: abundance index of voles (Microtus
 and Myodes) during May in Kauhava-Lapua study area (standardised) in 2001
 * voles.2002: abundance index of voles (Microtus and Myodes) during May in
 Kauhava-Lapua study area (standardised) in 2002 * voles.2003: abundance
 index of voles (Microtus and Myodes) during May in Kauhava-Lapua study
 area (standardised) in 2003 * voles.2004: abundance index of voles
 (Microtus and Myodes) during May in Kauhava-Lapua study area
 (standardised) in 2004 * voles.2005: abundance index of voles (Microtus
 and Myodes) during May in Kauhava-Lapua study area (standardised) in 2005
 * voles.2006: abundance index of voles (Microtus and Myodes) during May in
 Kauhava-Lapua study area (standardised) in 2006 * voles.2007: abundance
 index of voles (Microtus and Myodes) during May in Kauhava-Lapua study
 area (standardised) in 2007 * voles.2008: abundance index of voles
 (Microtus and Myodes) during May in Kauhava-Lapua study area
 (standardised) in 2008 * voles.2009: abundance index of voles (Microtus
 and Myodes) during May in Kauhava-Lapua study area (standardised) in 2009
 * voles.2010: abundance index of voles (Microtus and Myodes) during May in
 Kauhava-Lapua study area (standardised) in 2010 * voles.2011: abundance
 index of voles (Microtus and Myodes) during May in Kauhava-Lapua study
 area (standardised) in 2011 * voles.2012: abundance index of voles
 (Microtus and Myodes) during May in Kauhava-Lapua study area
 (standardised) in 2012 * voles.2013: abundance index of voles (Microtus
 and Myodes) during May in Kauhava-Lapua study area (standardised) in 2013
 ## Code/software All datasets are supplied as comma-delimited (.csv) files
 and can be viewed using any CSV-compatible software. ## Access information