DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.24203882.v1
title: The cost-effectiveness of non-invasive stool-based colorectal cancer screening offerings from age 45 for a commercial and Medicare population

description: The United States Preventive Services Taskforce (USPSTF) recently recommended lowering the age for average-risk colorectal cancer (CRC) screening from 50 to 45 years. While initiating screening at age 45 versus 50 provides greater opportunity for CRC early detection and prevention, the full profile of benefits, risks, and cost-effectiveness of expanding the screen-eligible population requires further evaluation. The costs and clinical outcomes for screening at age 45 for triennial multi-target stool DNA [mt-sDNA], and other non-invasive stool-based modalities (annual fecal immunochemical test [FIT] and annual fecal-occult blood test [FOBT]), were estimated using the validated CRC-AIM microsimulation model over a lifetime horizon. Test sensitivity and specificity inputs were based on 2021 USPSTF modeling analyses; adherence rates were based on published real-world data and the costs of the screening test, follow-up colonoscopies, complications, and CRC care were included. Outcomes are reported from the perspective of a United States payer as clinical, life-years gained (LYG), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER); stool-based and follow-up colonoscopy adherence ranges were explored in one-way, probabilistic and threshold analyses. When compared to initiation of CRC screening at age 45 versus 50, all modalities reduced both the incidence of and mortality from CRC and increased LYG. Initiating CRC screening at age 45 was cost-effective with an ICER of $59,816 and $35,857 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) for mt-sDNA versus FIT and FOBT, respectively. In the threshold analyses, at equivalent rates to stool-based screening, mt-sDNA was always cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000 per QALY versus FIT and FOBT. Initiating average-risk CRC screening at age 45 instead of age 50 increases the estimated clinical benefit by reducing disease burden while remaining cost-effective. Among stool-based screening modalities, mt-sDNA provides the most clinical benefit in a Commercial and Medicare population. Screening for colorectal cancer at an earlier age can provide additional benefits in terms of reducing disease complications and death. This study looked at the occurrence of disease complications and costs related to different types of colorectal cancer screening in 45 vs. 50 year old people. A model that has previously been used to project lifetime costs and disease complications in people receiving colorectal cancer screening was used in this study. We found that beginning screening at age 45 as compared to at age 50 reduced disease complications and death. In people who started screening at age 45, one particular screening type (multitarget stool DNA) was found to provide better economic value to a greater degree relative to other strategies. These findings were consistent even when many inputs into the model were changed over reasonable ranges. Therefore, our study helps show that starting screening in people at age 45 with average risk for developing colorectal cancer is beneficial by reducing disease complications and deaths, and that multitarget stool DNA is the strategy that provides the most benefits while being economically justifiable.