cometadata/datacite-titles-descriptions-related-identifiers huggingface dataset:
DOI: 10.3886/e114045v1
title: Replication data for: How Is Foreign Aid Spent? Evidence from a Natural Experiment

description: We use oil price fluctuations to test the impact of transfers from wealthy OPEC nations to their poorer Muslim allies. The instrument identifies plausibly exogenous variation in foreign aid. We investigate how aid is spent by tracking its short-run effect on aggregate demand, national accounts, and balance of payments. Aid affects most components of GDP though it has no statistically identifiable impact on prices or economic growth. Much aid is consumed, primarily in the form of imported noncapital goods. Aid substitutes for domestic savings, has no effect on the financial account, and leads to unaccounted capital flight. (JEL F35, O19)
DOI: 10.3886/e114046
title: Replication data for: Can a Representative-Agent Model Represent a Heterogeneous-Agent Economy

description: Accounting for observed fluctuations in aggregate employment, consumption, and real wage using the optimality conditions of a representative household requires preferences that are incompatible with economic priors. In order to reconcile theory with data, we construct a model with heterogeneous agents whose decisions are difficult to aggregate because of incomplete capital markets and the indivisible nature of labor supply. If we were to explain the model-generated aggregate time series using decisions of a stand-in household, such a household must have a nonconcave or unstable utility as is often found with the aggregate US data. (JEL E13, E24)
DOI: 10.3886/e114046v1
title: Replication data for: Can a Representative-Agent Model Represent a Heterogeneous-Agent Economy

description: Accounting for observed fluctuations in aggregate employment, consumption, and real wage using the optimality conditions of a representative household requires preferences that are incompatible with economic priors. In order to reconcile theory with data, we construct a model with heterogeneous agents whose decisions are difficult to aggregate because of incomplete capital markets and the indivisible nature of labor supply. If we were to explain the model-generated aggregate time series using decisions of a stand-in household, such a household must have a nonconcave or unstable utility as is often found with the aggregate US data. (JEL E13, E24)
DOI: 10.3886/e114047
title: Replication data for: Hit or Miss? The Effect of Assassinations on Institutions and War

description: Assassinations are a persistent feature of the political landscape. Using a new dataset of assassination attempts on all world leaders from 1875 to 2004, we exploit inherent randomness in the success or failure of assassination attempts to identify the effects of assassination. We find that, on average, successful assassinations of autocrats produce sustained moves toward democracy. We also find that assassinations affect the intensity of small-scale conflicts. The results document a contemporary source of institutional change, inform theories of conflict, and show that small sources of randomness can have a pronounced effect on history. (JEL D72, N40, O17)
DOI: 10.3886/e114047v1
title: Replication data for: Hit or Miss? The Effect of Assassinations on Institutions and War

description: Assassinations are a persistent feature of the political landscape. Using a new dataset of assassination attempts on all world leaders from 1875 to 2004, we exploit inherent randomness in the success or failure of assassination attempts to identify the effects of assassination. We find that, on average, successful assassinations of autocrats produce sustained moves toward democracy. We also find that assassinations affect the intensity of small-scale conflicts. The results document a contemporary source of institutional change, inform theories of conflict, and show that small sources of randomness can have a pronounced effect on history. (JEL D72, N40, O17)
DOI: 10.3886/e114048
title: Replication data for: Democratic Capital: The Nexus of Political and Economic Change

description: We study the dynamics of economic and political change, theoretically and empirically. Democratic capital measured by a nation's historical experience with democracy, and the incidence of democracy in its neighborhood, appears to reduce exit rates from democracy and raise exit rates from autocracy. Higher democratic capital stimulates growth by increasing the stability of democracies. Heterogeneous effects of democracy induce sorting of countries into political regimes, which helps explain systematic differences between democracies and autocracies. Our results suggest the possibility of a virtuous circle, where accumulation of physical and democratic capital reinforce each other, promoting economic development and consolidation of democracy. (JEL D72, I31, N10, N40, O47)
DOI: 10.3886/e114048v1
title: Replication data for: Democratic Capital: The Nexus of Political and Economic Change

description: We study the dynamics of economic and political change, theoretically and empirically. Democratic capital measured by a nation's historical experience with democracy, and the incidence of democracy in its neighborhood, appears to reduce exit rates from democracy and raise exit rates from autocracy. Higher democratic capital stimulates growth by increasing the stability of democracies. Heterogeneous effects of democracy induce sorting of countries into political regimes, which helps explain systematic differences between democracies and autocracies. Our results suggest the possibility of a virtuous circle, where accumulation of physical and democratic capital reinforce each other, promoting economic development and consolidation of democracy. (JEL D72, I31, N10, N40, O47)
DOI: 10.3886/e114193
title: Replication data for: Sticky Prices versus Monetary Frictions: An Estimation of Policy Trade-Offs

description: We develop a two-sector monetary model with a centralized and decentralized market. Activities in the centralized market resemble those in a standard New Keynesian economy with price rigidities. In the decentralized market agents engage in bilateral exchanges for which money is essential. This paper is the first to formally estimate such a model, evaluate its fit based on postwar US data, and assess its money demand properties. Steady-state welfare calculations reveal that the distortions created by the monetary friction may be of similar magnitude as the distortions created by the New Keynesian friction. (JEL C54, E12, E31, E41, E52)
DOI: 10.3886/e114194
title: Replication data for: Pricing-to-Market and the Failure of Absolute PPP

description: We show that deviations from the law of one price in tradable goods are an important source of violations of absolute purchasing power parity. Using highly disaggregated export data, we document systematic international price discrimination: at the US dock, low-income countries pay lower prices. This pricing-to-market is about twice as important as local nontraded inputs for differences in tradable prices. We propose a model of consumer search and pricing-to-market in which consumers in low-income countries have a comparative advantage in nontraded, nonmarket search activities. Evidence from cross-country time-use studies and US export prices supports the model. (JEL E31, F14)
DOI: 10.3886/e114194v1
title: Replication data for: Pricing-to-Market and the Failure of Absolute PPP

description: We show that deviations from the law of one price in tradable goods are an important source of violations of absolute purchasing power parity. Using highly disaggregated export data, we document systematic international price discrimination: at the US dock, low-income countries pay lower prices. This pricing-to-market is about twice as important as local nontraded inputs for differences in tradable prices. We propose a model of consumer search and pricing-to-market in which consumers in low-income countries have a comparative advantage in nontraded, nonmarket search activities. Evidence from cross-country time-use studies and US export prices supports the model. (JEL E31, F14)
DOI: 10.3886/e114195
title: Replication data for: Are Long-Run Inflation Expectations Anchored More Firmly in the Euro Area Than in the United States?

description: This paper compares the evolution of long-run inflation expectations in the euro area and the United States, using evidence from financial markets and surveys of professional forecasters. Survey data indicate that long-run inflation expectations are reasonably well anchored in both economies but reveal substantially greater dispersion across forecasters' long-horizon projections of US inflation. Analysis of daily data on inflation swaps and nominal-indexed bond spreads, which gauge compensation for expected inflation and inflation risk, also suggests that long-run inflation expectations are more firmly anchored in the euro area than in the United States. (JEL D84, E31, E37, E52, E58)
DOI: 10.3886/e114195v1
title: Replication data for: Are Long-Run Inflation Expectations Anchored More Firmly in the Euro Area Than in the United States?

description: This paper compares the evolution of long-run inflation expectations in the euro area and the United States, using evidence from financial markets and surveys of professional forecasters. Survey data indicate that long-run inflation expectations are reasonably well anchored in both economies but reveal substantially greater dispersion across forecasters' long-horizon projections of US inflation. Analysis of daily data on inflation swaps and nominal-indexed bond spreads, which gauge compensation for expected inflation and inflation risk, also suggests that long-run inflation expectations are more firmly anchored in the euro area than in the United States. (JEL D84, E31, E37, E52, E58)
DOI: 10.3886/e114196
title: Replication data for: Welfare-Based Optimal Monetary Policy with Unemployment and Sticky Prices: A Linear-Quadratic Framework

description: We derive a linear-quadratic model that is consistent with sticky prices and search and matching frictions in the labor market. We show that the second-order approximation to the welfare of the representative agent depends on inflation and "gaps" that involve current and lagged unemployment. Our approximation makes explicit how welfare costs are generated by the presence of search frictions. These costs are distinct from the costs associated with relative price dispersion and fluctuations in consumption that appear in standard new Keynesian models. We show the labor market structure has important implications for optimal monetary policy. (JEL E24, E31, E52)
DOI: 10.3886/e114196v1
title: Replication data for: Welfare-Based Optimal Monetary Policy with Unemployment and Sticky Prices: A Linear-Quadratic Framework

description: We derive a linear-quadratic model that is consistent with sticky prices and search and matching frictions in the labor market. We show that the second-order approximation to the welfare of the representative agent depends on inflation and "gaps" that involve current and lagged unemployment. Our approximation makes explicit how welfare costs are generated by the presence of search frictions. These costs are distinct from the costs associated with relative price dispersion and fluctuations in consumption that appear in standard new Keynesian models. We show the labor market structure has important implications for optimal monetary policy. (JEL E24, E31, E52)
DOI: 10.3886/e114490
title: Replication data for: Elasticity of Medicaid Access with Respect to State Financial Distress

description: In 2016, total Medicaid spending, $574.2 billion, represented one-third of state budgets. Descriptive studies indicate that state policymakers adjust social welfare programs during times of financial distress, particularly Medicaid. The challenge of formally estimating this effect is that macroeconomic shocks increase Medicaid enrollment and state-level financial stress. We use an exogenous measure of Medicaid generosity to estimate the elasticity of Medicaid generosity with respect to financial conditions. We find Medicaid generosity is not adjusted during periods of fiscal distress, whether anticipated or not. Instead, we find a counter-cyclical Medicaid effect with generosity increasing with increases in the unemployment rate.
DOI: 10.3886/e114490v1
title: Replication data for: Elasticity of Medicaid Access with Respect to State Financial Distress

description: In 2016, total Medicaid spending, $574.2 billion, represented one-third of state budgets. Descriptive studies indicate that state policymakers adjust social welfare programs during times of financial distress, particularly Medicaid. The challenge of formally estimating this effect is that macroeconomic shocks increase Medicaid enrollment and state-level financial stress. We use an exogenous measure of Medicaid generosity to estimate the elasticity of Medicaid generosity with respect to financial conditions. We find Medicaid generosity is not adjusted during periods of fiscal distress, whether anticipated or not. Instead, we find a counter-cyclical Medicaid effect with generosity increasing with increases in the unemployment rate.
DOI: 10.3886/e114491
title: Replication data for: On the Returns to Invention within Firms: Evidence from Finland

description: In this paper we merge individual income data, firm-level data, patenting data, and IQ data in Finland over the period 1988–2012 to analyze the returns to invention for inventors and their coworkers or stakeholders within the same firm. We find that: (i) inventors collect only 8 percent of the total private return from invention; (ii) entrepreneurs get over 44 percent of the total gains; (iii) bluecollar workers get about 26 percent of the gains and the rest goes to white-collar workers. Moreover, entrepreneurs start with significant negative returns prior to the patent application, but their returns subsequently become highly positive.
DOI: 10.3886/e114491v1
title: Replication data for: On the Returns to Invention within Firms: Evidence from Finland

description: In this paper we merge individual income data, firm-level data, patenting data, and IQ data in Finland over the period 1988–2012 to analyze the returns to invention for inventors and their coworkers or stakeholders within the same firm. We find that: (i) inventors collect only 8 percent of the total private return from invention; (ii) entrepreneurs get over 44 percent of the total gains; (iii) bluecollar workers get about 26 percent of the gains and the rest goes to white-collar workers. Moreover, entrepreneurs start with significant negative returns prior to the patent application, but their returns subsequently become highly positive.
DOI: 10.3886/e114679
title: Replication data for: The Effect of Disability Insurance Payments on Beneficiaries' Earnings

description: A crucial issue is whether social insurance affects work decisions through income or substitution effects. We examine this in the context of US Social Security Disability Insurance (DI), exploiting discontinuous changes in the benefit formula with a regression kink design to estimate the income effect of payments on earnings and employment. Using administrative data on all new DI beneficiaries from 2001 to 2007, our preferred estimate is that an increase in DI payments of $1 causes an average decrease in beneficiaries' earnings of $0.20 and that annual employment rates decrease by 1.3 percentage points per $1,000 of DI payments. These findings suggest that the income effect accounts for a majority of DI-induced reductions in earnings.
DOI: 10.3886/e114679v1
title: Replication data for: The Effect of Disability Insurance Payments on Beneficiaries' Earnings

description: A crucial issue is whether social insurance affects work decisions through income or substitution effects. We examine this in the context of US Social Security Disability Insurance (DI), exploiting discontinuous changes in the benefit formula with a regression kink design to estimate the income effect of payments on earnings and employment. Using administrative data on all new DI beneficiaries from 2001 to 2007, our preferred estimate is that an increase in DI payments of $1 causes an average decrease in beneficiaries' earnings of $0.20 and that annual employment rates decrease by 1.3 percentage points per $1,000 of DI payments. These findings suggest that the income effect accounts for a majority of DI-induced reductions in earnings.
DOI: 10.3886/e114680
title: Replication data for: The Economics of Rights: Does the Right to Counsel Increase Crime?

description: We examine the broad consequences of the right to counsel by exploiting a legal reform in Israel that extended the right to publicly provided legal counsel to suspects in arrest proceedings. Using the staggered regional rollout of the reform, we find that the reform reduced arrest duration and the likelihood of arrestees being charged. We also find that the reform reduced the number of arrests made by the police. Lastly, we find that the reform increased crime. These findings indicate that the right to counsel improves suspects' situation, but discourages the police from making arrests, which results in higher crime.
DOI: 10.3886/e114680v1
title: Replication data for: The Economics of Rights: Does the Right to Counsel Increase Crime?

description: We examine the broad consequences of the right to counsel by exploiting a legal reform in Israel that extended the right to publicly provided legal counsel to suspects in arrest proceedings. Using the staggered regional rollout of the reform, we find that the reform reduced arrest duration and the likelihood of arrestees being charged. We also find that the reform reduced the number of arrests made by the police. Lastly, we find that the reform increased crime. These findings indicate that the right to counsel improves suspects' situation, but discourages the police from making arrests, which results in higher crime.
DOI: 10.3886/e114681
title: Replication data for: The Role of Government Reimbursement in Drug Shortages

description: Beginning in the mid-2000s, the incidence of drug shortages rose, especially for generic injectable drugs such as anesthetics and chemotherapy treatments. We examine whether reimbursement changes contributed to the shortages, focusing on a reduction in Medicare Part B reimbursement to providers for drugs. We hypothesize that lower reimbursement put downward pressure on manufacturers' prices, which reduced manufacturers' incentives to invest in capacity, reliability, and new launches. We show that after the policy change, shortages rose more for drugs with higher shares of patients insured by Medicare, greater decreases in provider reimbursement, and greater decreases in manufacturer prices.
DOI: 10.3886/e114681v1
title: Replication data for: The Role of Government Reimbursement in Drug Shortages

description: Beginning in the mid-2000s, the incidence of drug shortages rose, especially for generic injectable drugs such as anesthetics and chemotherapy treatments. We examine whether reimbursement changes contributed to the shortages, focusing on a reduction in Medicare Part B reimbursement to providers for drugs. We hypothesize that lower reimbursement put downward pressure on manufacturers' prices, which reduced manufacturers' incentives to invest in capacity, reliability, and new launches. We show that after the policy change, shortages rose more for drugs with higher shares of patients insured by Medicare, greater decreases in provider reimbursement, and greater decreases in manufacturer prices.
DOI: 10.3886/e114682v1
title: Replication data for: Towards the Greater Good? EU Commissioners' Nationality and Budget Allocation in the European Union

description: We demonstrate that the nationalities of EU Commissioners influence budget allocation decisions in favor of their country of origin. Our focus is on the Commissioners for Agriculture, who are exclusively responsible for a specific fund that accounts for the largest share of the overall EU budget. On average, providing the Commissioner causes a 1 percentage point increase in a country's share of the overall EU budget, which corresponds to 850 million euros per year. There are no different pretreatment trends and the magnitude of the bias from selection-on-unobservables would have to be implausibly high to account for the estimated coefficient.
DOI: 10.3886/e113726
title: Replication data for: Health Care Spending and Utilization in Public and Private Medicare

description: We compare health care spending in public and private Medicare using newly available claims data from Medicare Advantage (MA) insurers. MA insurer revenues are 30 percent higher than their health care spending. Adjusting for enrollee mix, health care spending per enrollee in MA is 9 to 30 percent lower than in Traditional Medicare (TM), depending on the way we define "comparable" enrollees. Spending differences primarily reflect differences in health care utilization, with similar reductions for "high-value" and "low-value" care, rather than health care prices. We present evidence consistent with MA plans encouraging substitution to less expensive care and engaging in utilization management.
DOI: 10.3886/e113727v1
title: Replication data for: Early Childhood Education by Television: Lessons from Sesame Street

description: We investigate whether preschool-age children exposed to Sesame Street when it aired in 1969 experienced improved educational and labor market outcomes. We exploit geographic variation in broadcast reception derived from technological factors, namely UHF versus VHF transmission. This variation is then related to Census data on grade-for-age status, educational attainment, and labor market outcomes. The results indicate that Sesame Street improved school performance, particularly for boys. The point estimates for long-term educational and labor market outcomes are generally imprecise.
DOI: 10.3886/e113728v1
title: Replication data for: The Welfare Effects of Nudges: A Case Study of Energy Use Social Comparisons

description: "Nudge"-style interventions are often deemed successful if they generate large behavior change at low cost, but they are rarely subjected to full social welfare evaluations. We combine a field experiment with a simple theoretical framework to evaluate the welfare effects of one especially policy-relevant intervention, home energy social comparison reports. In our sample, the reports increase social welfare, although traditional evaluation approaches overstate gains because they ignore significant costs incurred by nudge recipients. Overall, home energy report welfare gains might be overstated by $620 million. We develop a prediction algorithm for optimal targeting; this approach would double the welfare gains.
DOI: 10.3886/e114049
title: Replication data for: Optimal Mirrleesean Taxation in a Ben-Porath Economy

description: I characterize optimal taxes in a life-cycle economy where ability and human capital are unobservable. I show that unobservable human capital effectively makes preferences over labor nonseparable across age. I generalize the static optimal tax formulas to account for such nonseparabilities and show how they depend both on own-Frisch labor elasticities and cross-Frisch labor elasticities. I calibrate the economy to US data. I find that the optimal marginal income taxes decrease with age, in contrast to both the US tax code and to a model with observable human capital. I demonstrate that the behavior of cross Frisch elasticities is essential in explaining the decline. (JEL D91, H21, H24, J24)