DOI: 10.5061/dryad.8t3v5
title: Data from: Modeling winter moth Operophtera brumata egg phenology: nonlinear effects of temperature and developmental stage on developmental rate

description: Understanding the relationship between an insect's developmental rate
 and temperature is crucial to forecast insect phenology under climate
 change. In the winter moth Operophtera brumata timing of egg-hatching has
 severe fitness consequences on growth and reproduction as egg-hatching has
 to match bud burst of the host tree. In the winter moth, as in many insect
 species, egg development is strongly affected by ambient temperatures.
 Here we use laboratory experiments to show for the first time that the
 effect of temperature on developmental rate depends on the stage of
 development of the eggs. Building on this experimental finding, we present
 a novel physiological model to describe winter moth egg development in
 response to temperature. Our model, a modification of the existing
 Sharpe−Schoolfield biophysical model, incorporates the effect of
 developmental stage on developmental rate. Next we validate this model
 using a 13-year data-set from winter moth eggs kept under ambient
 conditions and compared this validation with a degree day model and with
 the Sharpe−Schoolfield model, which lacks the interaction between
 temperature and developmental stage on developmental rate. We show that
 accounting for the interaction between temperature and developmental stage
 improved the predictive power of the model and contributed to our
 understanding of annual variation in winter moth egg phenology. As climate
 change leads to unequal changes in temperatures throughout the year, a
 description of insect development in response to realistic patterns of
 temperature rather than an invariable degree-day approach will help us to
 better predict future responses of insect phenology, and thereby insect
 fitness, to climate change.
description: Fig 1 egg-hatching dates
 experiment 2007Data used in Figure
 1Fig 2a developmental
 rate at different developmental stagesData used in Figure
 2aFig 2b development
 versus timeData used in Figure
 2bFig 3 development
 against timeData used in Figure
 3Fig 4a Model results_
 model-fitData used in Figure
 4aFig 4b Model results_
 validation_ experiments 20052007Data used in Figure
 4bFig 4c Model results_
 validation experimental dataData used in Figure
 4cFig 4a Temperature
 data_experimental data-set for parameterizationTemperature data used in
 the three models to estimate optimal parameters valuesFig 4a Egg-hatching
 data_experimental data-set for parameterizationEgg-hatching data used
 in the three models to estimate optimal parameters
 valuesFig 4b Temperature
 data_experimental data-set for validationTemperature data used in
 the three models to calculate predictions on timing of
 egg-hatchingFig 4c Temperature
 data_field data-set for validationTemperature data used in
 the three models to calculate predictions on timing of
 egg-hatchingFig 4b Egg-hatching
 data_experimental data-set for validationData on timing of
 egg-hatching for the experimental data-set used for the validation shown
 in Fig 4bFig 4c Egg-hatching
 data_field data-set for validationData on timing of
 egg-hatching for the experimental data-set used for the validation shown
 in Fig 4cFig A1 Sensitivity
 analysisData used in Fig A1
 (supplementary material)Fig A2 MeanDD vs
 frostdaysData used in Fig
 A2