DOI: 10.17031/64e8b1409baf0
title: 2023, Marine Spatial Planning Addressing Climate Effects (MSPACE) UK EEZ climate change hotspots/refugia shapefiles
title: Early-warning system:  Climate-smart spatial management of UK fisheries, aquaculture and conservation. A report of the NERC/ESRC Marine Spatial Planning Addressing Climate Effects project

description: These shapefiles show the locations of climate change hotspots and climate change refugia in the UK EEZ, as identified from spatial meta-analysis conducted as part of the Marine Spatial Planning Addressing Climate Effects (MSPACE) program. Analysis was run on selected climate modelling and/or species distribution model outputs relevant to three sectors of interest (conservation, fisheries and aquaculture). We compared a present day reference period (2006-2025) to each possible 20 year time period between 2026 and 2069 (e.g. 2026-2045, 2027-2046, 2028-2047 etc.) under two different GHG emissions scenarios – RCP4.5 (strong curbs in global emissions toward climate change mitigation, from 2050 onwards, leading to a mean global warming by the end of the century of ~2.4°C) and RCP8.5 (emissions continue to rise steadily throughout the 21st century, leading to mean global warming ~4.3°C). In this way, we were able to determine whether or not the marine environment, as described by the modelling layers included in the analysis, changes significantly between the reference period and the future period of interest. 

The analysis method identifies ecosystem-wide climate change signals, allowing the investigation of the effects of climate change as a holistic process that species respond to through changes in species distributions, affecting the activity of sectors that rely on them. This allows for a mapping of the emergence of climate change hotspots (areas where climate driven trends lead these ecosystem components into a new state beyond their natural variability) over space and time, and so indicating areas where the current level of activity of sectors reliant on those species and habitats may no longer be sustainable. Importantly, because planners need to know also about what can be done, not just what will be lost, this methodology also allows the identification of climate change refugia, where the ecosystem underpinning a sector remains in its current state, and thus where current uses may be sustainable. 

Specific analyses were conducted for each focal sector, and each shapefile corresponds to the results of one of these analyses. In the conservation sector, analyses focused on: pelagic habitats, benthic habitats, megafauna exploiting pelagic habitats, megafauna exploiting benthic habitats and climate services (e.g. carbon sequestration ability of benthic habitats). In the fisheries sector, analyses focused on: pelagic fisheries and benthic/demersal fisheries. In the aquaculture sector, analyses focused on: pelagic aquaculture (activities taking place in the water column such as salmon cages and suspended mussel culture) and benthic aquaculture (activities that take place on the seabed such as oyster trestles).

description: Source text files used in the generation of each shapefile are included in the dataset. These text files represent the results of a spatial meta-analysis run on selected climate modelling and/or species distribution model outputs relevant to three sectors of interest (conservation, fisheries and aquaculture). We compared a present day reference period (2006-2025) to each possible 20 year time period between 2026 and 2069 (e.g. 2026-2045, 2027-2046, 2028-2047 etc.) under two different GHG emissions scenarios – RCP4.5 (strong curbs in global emissions toward climate change mitigation, from 2050 onwards, leading to a mean global warming by the end of the century of ~2.4 °C) and RCP8.5 (emissions continue to rise steadily throughout the 21st century, leading to mean global warming ~4.3°C). The text files contain the lat/lon coordinates of the model domain, and values of  –1 (indicating a climate change hotspot), 0 (indicating climate change refugia), or 1 (indicating a climate change bright spot. NB no shapefiles of climate change brightspots were produced as they did not appear consistently across the time periods and emissions scenarios analysed). Co-ordinates of landmasses or areas outside the model domain have a value of NA. 

To create the shapefiles, the data for each sectoral analysis (pelagic habitats; benthic habitats; megafauna exploiting pelagic habitats; megafauna exploiting benthic habitats; climate services (e.g. carbon sequestration ability of benthic habitats); pelagic fisheries; benthic/demersal fisheries; pelagic aquaculture and benthic aquaculture), for all 20 year time periods between 2026-2069 and both emissions scenarios were plotted (25 plots for each RCP, so 50 plots in total) and stacked together using the “magick” package in R. Areas consistently identified as refugia (a site that remains climate-resilient within a given period of analysis) or hotspots (a site where climate pressures drive an ecosystem into a new ecosystem state, beyond its natural variability) in both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were marked using the  “draw” function in the terra package. The resulting polygons were stored as shapefiles, which summarise the location of climate refugia and climate change hotspots in the UK EEZ up to 2069, across both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. 

The meta-analysis itself used physical biogeochemical modelling data from the POLCOMS-ERSEM model, and species distribution modelling generated by the Size-Spectrum Dynamic Bioclimate Envelope Model (SS-DBEM). Modelling data were originally produced as part of the H2020 program CERES (data are in-line with modelling used within the 6th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), and the FP7 program DEVOTES (scenarios consistent with the 5th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). CERES modelling data are all publicly available. DEVOTES modelling data are available on request from Jose Fernandes (AZTI).