DOI: 10.5255/ukda-sn-856463
title: Forecasting with Fishers Data for 3 Coastal Villages of Thiruvananthapuram District, India, 2020-2022

description: The project was formally suspended for 6 months due to covid-19 lockdown in the research area, and resumed on 1st October 2020. It was granted a no-cost extension until 30 April 2022, and then again another no-cost extension until 31 October 2022. Although the research is now completed, data analysis and impact activities are continuing.
The research project set to explore effective strategies to produce and communicate localized and reliable weather information which South Indian traditional/artisanal fishers require to fish safely even under uncertain, variable or prohibitive weather conditions. Traditional fishers’ lives There are more than 180,000 active traditional fishers in Kerala, of whom 55,118 live in the Thiruvananthapuram district. Coastal households are highly dependent on fishing and daily sale of fish, and the bulk of fishing income goes towards covering daily household expenses, acquiring or servicing fishing gear, repaying debts, providing for human development expenditures like education and health, and sustaining wider family and community. Without regular and successful fishing, income becomes uncertain or reduced, leading to increased indebtedness which then amplifies the precariousness of traditional fishers’ livelihood. Available statistics, supported by a house-to-house survey we conducted during the research, suggest that 50% of fishing household remain below poverty line. Our research has established that as the result of economic pressures and ecological factors, traditional fishers are drawn to fishing further away from the shore even under inclement weather conditions or in disregard of advisories. The monsoon season is the time when the largest fish catches are made and fishing household can make savings to see them through the whole year. However, weather and sea conditions during the monsoon season can be extremely hazardous, and as a result many accidents occur: fishers lose boats, fishing gear, income, and even their lives throughout the season. At the same time, climate change has made weather patterns on the south-west coast of India more unstable and unpredictable the whole year and beyond the monsoon season (see, for instance, increased occurrence of cyclonic events on the south-west coast of India), making fishers’ lives and livelihoods more unpredictable and precarious during non-monsoon season. Combined with fluctuations of fish stocks and Covid-19 bans on fishing (Johnson et al 2022), the growing uncertainty of weather have reduced the number of fishing days available to traditional fishers, thus contributing to a sharp decline in the overall yearly tonnage of fish landed. The necessity to secure an income and the unpredictability of fishing often forces traditional fishers to prioritise income over safety. While traditional fishing continues to play a crucial role in the economy and daily diet of the state, fishing has become one of the most dangerous occupations in Kerala. 
 
Listening To Traditional Fishers’ Voices Over 12 months, the research team has collected robust empirical evidence on fishing practices in three different fishing villages along the Thiruvananthapuram coast, as well as detailed data on weather patterns at sea. On the basis of the analysis of more than 300 interviews with fishers, focus group discussions and household surveys, the research team has established that fishers’ decisions concerning whether to fish or not under hazardous weather/sea conditions are based on a combination of different (traditional and scientific) knowledges, as well as on the availability of fish in the sea, and on economic needs of the households concerned. However, existing weather forecasts provided and delivered by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) cover an area of the ocean too wide to be useful to traditional fishers for the safe planning of their fishing activities which normally take place within an average of 35kms from the coast. Moreover, existing weather forecasts are often imprecise, regularly under/over-forecasting unusual weather events (e.g., wind &gt;45 kmph) (see Martin et al 2022). These factors combine with all too frequent advisories against fishing to undermine fishers’ trust on existing weather forecasts. Regardless of the shortcomings in existing forecasts and generalised lack of trust on their precision and usefulness, the research team established that traditional fishers are responsive to scientific advice as long as science addresses their needs. Indeed, they demand more science-based interventions which respond to their needs and increase their safety at sea. There is clear evidence in all three research locations that traditional fishers ask for localized, reliable, daily and timely weather forecasts disseminated in a language and through means familiar to them, and they want to be involved in both production and dissemination of forecasts. Such localized, reliable and timely weather forecasts can be used by traditional fishers not simply to decide as to whether to go to sea or not, but also to manage potential risks, and to prepare for fishing under hazardous conditions. Indeed, traditional fishers demand daily weather information before venturing into sea. Responding to Traditional Fishers’ needs to increase the safety of traditional fishers and to make their livelihood more resilient in the face of increasingly hazardous and unpredictable weather resulting to the effects of climate change, the research team has devised and tested new tools to produce accurate and timely localized coastal weather forecasts. Scientists at CUSAT Advanced Centre for Atmospheric Radar Research (ACARR) and at Sussex University (UK) have devised a 3-tiers approach to provide traditional fishers with tailor-made weather forecasts. Based on available data from IMD, INCOIS, NCEP (National Center for Environmental Prediction, USA) and NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA), the research team produced 7 days weather outlooks for the entire Arabian sea; 3 days forecasts for the Arabian Sea off Kerala coast; daily high-resolution localized weather forecasts for relevant fishing areas along the Thiruvananthapuram coast based on WRF weather modelling tools. These combined forecasts help the fishers plan the fishing expedition for a single or multiple days. Throughout the 2021 monsoon season, the research team has validated the accuracy of localized WRF-based high resolution forecasts against scientific data of actual weather events, as well as with reference to traditional fishers’ actual observations and experiences. The localized WRF-based high resolution coastal weather forecasts were found to be detailed and useful for artisanal fishers, and with a high degree of accuracy. Indeed, the our results indicate that the WRF-based model can produce accurate forecasts for wind direction and wind category, with a particular focus on moderate wind events, a bias during June and July and change in polarity in August and September. The model was validated using ERA5 reanalysis data, and various skill scores were calculated to assess its performance. The analysis suggests that the model is robust and locally relevant for small-grid forecasts. It can predict moderate wind with high accuracy, but its performance is not as strong for light and strong wind events (see Abhilash et al 2023). 
 
Taken together, this 3-tiers approach to weather forecasting allows traditional fishers to plan ahead, and maximise their fishing in a safe and sustainable environment. At the same time, the research team devised and tested effective and easily accessible communication tools to make localized forecasts accessible to local fishing communities. In collaboration with ITC experts at IIT Delhi and Sussex University, the team developed a tailor-made mobile-phone App and a website (https://www.kattumkadalum.org) through which detailed localized weather graphics and weather Information were made available in Malayalam language to traditional fishers. Moreover, the research team tested the broadcast of daily weather information in Malayalam through one online radio station run by local community members (Radio Monsoon; https://monsoonradio.wordpress.com). The usefulness and practicality of these communication tools were established through regular discussions with users. Moreover, the research team trained aspirants from the coastal community in the interpretation of weather information and graphics, as well as on communication skills and techniques. Extensive feedback from traditional fishers allowed the research team to modify and improve the working and scope of the communication tools. Promoting safety, resilience and sustainable livelihoods with traditional fishers during the whole 2021 monsoon season, the research team collected regular and detailed feedback from fishers about the accuracy and usefulness of localized weather models and forecasts, and improved the latter on the basis of their comments. The team also tested different means to communicate localized weather forecasts and to make them accessible and useful to the largest number of users. Fishers’ continuous feedback allowed us to refine communication tools, leading, for example, to the introduction of easy to understand weather graphics on mobile App and website, and public electronic displays of forecast and graphics. Traditional fishers’ response to a timely, accurate and localized daily coastal weather forecast has been extremely positive. The monitoring of the use of communication tools confirmed a substantial uptake of weather information produced by the research team, and fishers continuously provide feedback and suggestions on how to improve the production and communication of weather information (see Howland and Roopesh 2023). Most importantly, the research demonstrates that traditional fishers require continuous access to robust weather science and technological support for their work. They demand to be involved in the production, communication and management of localized weather forecasts, as well as on the promotion of safe and sustainable fishing. Indeed, this research demonstrates that fishers’ trust in weather forecasts and compliance to weather information and advisories directly depends on fishers’ involvement in the co-production of effective localized forecasts and in the communication of the same. This has become even more urgent in the context of transformations of weather patterns due to climate change which limits the usefulness of fishers’ traditional knowledge. Our research found that tropical cyclones are on the rise in the Arabian Sea since 1979, especially during October-November. Intensity and duration of cyclones has been increasing especially in eastern Arabian Sea adjoining the Indian west coast driving more intense cyclones in the latter area (Abhilash et al. 2023). Considering the safety of artisan fishing habitats and livelihoods along this highly populated zone, this trend requires urgent action in terms of risk prevention and appropriate forecasting.