DOI: 10.5285/91c218d3a80f4c43ac665d0bdf0ed5e7
title: Chapter 12 of the Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report - Input data for Figure 12.5 (v20220804)

description: Input Data for Figure 12.5 from Chapter 12 of the Working Group I (WGI) Contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). Figure 12.5 shows projected changes in selected climatic impact-driver indices for Africa. --------------------------------------------------- How to cite this dataset --------------------------------------------------- When citing this dataset, please include both the data citation below (under 'Citable as') and the following citation for the report component from which the figure originates: Ranasinghe, R., A.C. Ruane, R. Vautard, N. Arnell, E. Coppola, F.A. Cruz, S. Dessai, A.S. Islam, M. Rahimi, D. Ruiz Carrascal, J. Sillmann, M.B. Sylla, C. Tebaldi, W. Wang, and R. Zaaboul, 2021: Climate Change Information for Regional Impact and for Risk Assessment. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson- Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1767–1926, doi:10.1017/9781009157896.014. --------------------------------------------------- Figure subpanels --------------------------------------------------- The figure has four panels, with general data provided in the central directory and specific data in 3 folders (Q100_CMIP5, Q100_CMIP6, Q1000_CORDEX-core). --------------------------------------------------- List of data provided --------------------------------------------------- This dataset contains: - spatial field over Africa of mean change in 1-in-100 year river discharge per unit catchment area (Q100, m3 s-1 km-2) from CORDEX models for 2041-2060 relative to 1995-2014 for RCP8.5 - Shoreline position change over Africa (pointwise) along sandy coasts by the year 2100 relative to 2010 (meters; negative values indicate shoreline retreat) from the CMIP5 based data set presented by Vousdoukas et al. (2020) - regional averages in Africa of Q100 (median value and the 10th-90th percentile range of model ensemble values across each model ensemble) over land areas for the WGI reference AR6 regions (defined in Chapter 1) for: - CMIP6 historical, ssp126 and ssp585 - CMIP5 and CORDEX historical, RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 - for the ‘recent past’ (1995-2014), mid-term (2041-2060) and long-term (2081-2100) time periods - and for three global warming levels (defined relative to the preindustrial period 1850-1900): 1.5°C, 2°C and 4°C - regional averages in Africa of CMIP5 based projections (mean change estimates and bars the 5th-95th percentile range of associated uncertainty) of shoreline position change along sandy coasts for 2050 and 2100 relative to 2010 for RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 from Vousdoukas et al. (2020) SAH, ARP, WAF, CAF, NEAF, SEAF, WSAF, ESAF, MDG, NEU, WCE and MED are domains used in the model. --------------------------------------------------- Data provided in relation to figure --------------------------------------------------- Data provided in relation to Figure 12.5: Panel a: - Q100_map_panel_a_AFR_less_MED_divdra.nc: Field (colors plotted on the map) of changes of 1-in-100yr river discharge per unit catchment area between 2041-2060 (mid-term) and 1995-2015 (recent past) for CORDEX RCP8.5; the data is from the AFR CORDEX domain, without the MED AR6 region - Q100_map_panel_a_MED_for_AFR_from_EUR_divdra.nc: same as previous file but for the MED AR6 region, taken from the EUR CORDEX domain Panel b: - CoastalRecession_AFRICA_RCP85_2100.json: pointwise values (color points on the map) for Africa of shoreline position mean changes between 2100 (long-term) and 2010 (recent past) from the CMIP5 based data set presented by Vousdoukas et al. (2020) Panel c: - txt files containing the median and 5th/95th percentiles of each ensemble of the 1-in-100yr river discharge per unit catchment area (Q100) regional averages of time slices: Q100_${ensemble}/Q100_${scenario}_${period}.nc_${CORDEX_domain}.txt, with: - ${ensemble}: CMIP5, CMIP6 or CORDEX-core - ${scenario}: the name of the scenario : ssp126, ssp585, rcp26, rcp85 - ${period}: the explicit period used to compute the temporal average: 1995-2014 (recent past), 2041-2060 (mid-term) and 2080-2099 (long term) - ${CORDEX_domain}: the CORDEX domain - txt files containing the Q100 regional averages of global warming levels: Q100_${ensemble}/${GWL}_${CORDEX_domain}.txt, with: - ${ensemble}: CMIP5, CMIP6 or CORDEX-core - ${GWL}: the Global Warming Level: 1.5, 2 and 4 - ${CORDEX_domain}: the CORDEX domain Panel d: - globalErosionProjections_by_AR6_region_${scenario}_${horizon).json: regional averages of shoreline position changes for Africa, for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios (${scenario} = RCP45 and ${scenario} = RCP85 respectively) and the 2050 (mid-term, in blue) and 2100 (long-term, in red) future horizons (${horizon}=2050 and ${horizon}=2100 respectively) against the recent past period (2010); the file contains the median (dots in the subpanels) and the 5th (q5) and 95th (q95) uncertainty estimates (used to plot the vertical bars) CMIP5 is the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. CMIP6 is the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. CORDEX is Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment from the WCRP. WCRP is the World Climate Research Programme. SSP stands for Shared Socioeconomic Pathway. SSP126 is the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway which represents the lower boundary of radiative forcing and development scenarios, consistent with RCP2.6. SSP585 is the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway which represents the upper boundary of radiative forcing and development scenarios, consistent with RCP8.5. RCP stands for Representative Concentration Pathway. RCP2.6 is the Representative Concentration Pathway for 2.6 Wm-2 global warming by 2100. RCP8.5 is the Representative Concentration Pathway for 8.5 Wm-2 global warming by 2100. --------------------------------------------------- Notes on reproducing the figure from the provided data --------------------------------------------------- For panel a, the plotting script ch12_fig12.5_plotting_code_Q100_AFR.py (see data tables and code on Github) draws the rivers and uses a subroutine (dranetwrite) to identify the rivers to plot them individually with lines, using the data from the Q100_map_panel_a_AFR_less_MED_divdra.nc and Q100_map_panel_a_MED_for_AFR_from_EUR_divdra.nc netcdf files; plotting the Q100 netcdf file will produce dots (and not rivers). For panel c, the recent past values are plotted as absolute values (left column on each regional subpanel) and the future changes are plotted as differences against the recent past values (differences are computed when plotting the values). --------------------------------------------------- Sources of additional information --------------------------------------------------- The following weblinks are provided in the Related Documents section of this catalogue record: - Link to the figure on the IPCC AR6 website - Link to the report component containing the figure (Chapter 12) - Link to the Supplementary Material for Chapter 12, which contains details on the input data used in Table 12.SM.1 - Link to the code for the figure, archived on Zenodo - Link to the Chapter 12 GitHub repository