DOI: 10.5061/dryad.zkh1893hr
title: Climate biogeography of Arabidopsis thaliana: Linking distribution models and individual variation

description: Patterns of individual variation are key to testing hypotheses about the
 mechanisms underlying biogeographic patterns. If species distributions are
 determined by environmental constraints, then populations near range
 margins may have reduced performance and be adapted to harsher
 environments. Model organisms are potentially important systems for
 biogeographical studies, given the available range‐wide natural history
 collections, and the importance of providing biogeographical context to
 their genetic and phenotypic diversity. We fit occurrence records to
 climate data and then projected the distribution of Arabidopsis under the
 last glacial maximum, current, and future climates. We confronted model
 predictions with individual performance measured on 2194 herbarium
 specimens, and we asked whether predicted suitability was associated with
 life history and genomic variation measured on ~900 natural accessions.
 The most important climate variables constraining the Arabidopsis
 distribution were winter cold in northern and high-elevation regions and
 summer heat in southern regions. Herbarium specimens from regions with
 lower habitat suitability in both northern and southern regions were
 smaller, supporting the hypothesis that the distribution of Arabidopsis is
 constrained by climate‐associated factors. Climate anomalies partly
 explained interannual variation in herbarium specimen size, but these did
 not closely correspond to local limiting factors identified in the
 distribution model. Late‐flowering genotypes were absent from the lowest
 suitability regions, suggesting slower life histories are only viable
 closer to the centre of the realized niche. We identified glacial refugia
 farther north than previously recognized, as well as refugia concordant
 with previous population genetic findings. Lower latitude populations,
 known to be genetically distinct, are most threatened by future climate
 change. The recently colonized range of Arabidopsis was well‐predicted by
 our native‐range model applied to certain regions but not others,
 suggesting it has colonized novel climates. Integration of distribution
 models with performance data from vast natural history collections is a
 route forward for testing biogeographical hypotheses about species
 distributions and their relationship with evolutionary fitness across
 large scales.
description: # Climate biogeography of *Arabidopsis thaliana*: Linking distribution
 models and individual variation
 [https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.zkh1893hr](https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.zkh1893hr) MaxEnt model projections, occurrence data, and herbarium specimen data from this article are included here. ## Description of the data and file structure MaxEnt model projections come as rasters. Occurrence data and herbarium specimen data are in Excel and tab-delimited tables. #### HerbariumDataPublic\_JBIpaper\_20Mar2024.xlsx This file contains measurements of herbarium specimens used in the paper. The units for latitude and longitude are degrees. The units for inflorescence height, maximum rosette leaf length, and maximum rosette diameter are in centimeters. The ratio of maximum rosette leaf length to inflorescence height and habitat suitability are unitless. #### OccurrenceDataUsedToFitModels\_JBI\_20March2024.txt This file contains the latitude and longitudes of occurrences used to fit the models in the paper. The units are degrees. #### At\_pred\_50kmbuffer\_28Feb2023.grd and At\_pred\_50kmbuffer\_28Feb2023.gri This is the MaxEnt model prediction for current conditions. #### futenvMean\_4.5\_500kmbuffer\_28Feb2023.grd and futenvMean\_4.5\_500kmbuffer\_28Feb2023.gri This is the predicted future suitability averaged over the multiple climate models described in the paper, under the RCP 4.5 emissions scenario. #### futenvSD\_4.5\_500kmbuffer\_28Feb2023.grd and futenvSD\_4.5\_500kmbuffer\_28Feb2023.gri This is the standard deviation of future suitabilities among the multiple climate models described in the paper, under the RCP 4.5 emissions scenario. #### At\_limMap\_50kmbuffer\_28Feb2023.gri and At\_limMap\_50kmbuffer\_28Feb2023.grd This is the limiting factor map. #### At\_pred\_lgm\_500kmbuffer\_28Feb2023.grd and At\_pred\_lgm\_500kmbuffer\_28Feb2023.gri This is the predicted suitability at the Last Glacial Maximum. #### futenvMean\_6.0\_500kmbuffer\_28Feb2023.grd and futenvMean\_6.0\_500kmbuffer\_28Feb2023.gri This is the predicted future suitability averaged over the multiple climate models described in the paper, under the RCP 6.0 emissions scenario. #### futenvSD\_60\_500kmbuffer\_28Feb2023.gri and futenvSD\_60\_500kmbuffer\_28Feb2023.grd This is the standard deviation of future suitabilities among the multiple climate models described in the paper, under the RCP 6.0 emissions scenario.