DOI: 10.5061/dryad.3xsj3txqw
title: Data from: Variation in dispersal traits and geography predict loss of ranges due to climate change in cold-adapted amphibians

description: Dispersal ability may play a major role in determining whether a species
 will persist under climate change. We used models of dispersal, employing
 a wide range of intrinsic species-specific dispersal factors, in
 conjunction with ecological niche models (ENM) and climate predictions to
 simulate whether distributions of North American cold-adapted amphibians
 will increase or decrease, and which aspects of dispersal most influence
 this prediction. We used ENM values as a proxy for habitat suitability,
 predicted a changing climate under three shared socio-economic pathways
 (SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585) representing three carbon emission scenarios,
 and conducted a sensitivity analysis on the effect of dispersal factors on
 range dynamics. We then used simulations focused only on the southern edge
 of ranges to determine the likelihood of individuals colonizing towards
 the core. Predicted range shifts depended on emission scenario, dispersal
 factors, and species’ initial geography. Inclusion of dispersal parameters
 was critical in predicting range shifts, in particular for high
 carbon-emission scenarios where contraction was more likely than
 expansion, although specific responses varied with species initial
 geography. Dispersal distance, probability of dispersal, and long-distance
 dispersal were often the most important parameters for predicting final
 range size. Similarly, dispersal parameters results in complete loss to
 complete emigration of southern range individuals towards the core. These
 models predict that for some species in the more rapid warming scenarios,
 translocation efforts will be needed to mitigate potential loss of genetic
 variation at the southern edges and the overall size of the species’
 ranges unless carbon emissions are reduced.
description: Input files for MigClim Simulations. All
 scripts for re-creating the analyses are available at
 https://github.com/trasea986/cc_disp_amphib.
description: # Data for: Variation in dispersal traits and geography predict loss of
 ranges due to climate change in cold-adapted amphibians
 [https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.3xsj3txqw](https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.3xsj3txqw) ## Description of the data and file structure 1\) CSV file that has GBIF DOI information. 2\) Input files for recreating simulation scenarios, broken up by shared-socioeconomic pathway (SSP) provided as GeoTIFF files (.tif) with embedded metadata (e.g. coordinate reference system) that were derived by making Species Distribution Models and predictions with Maxent. Within the three directories of the SSPs, file names start with species name shorthand from the paper (ABMA, ANBO, ANHE, LISY, PSMA, RALU) represent the 6 species (*Ambystoma macrodactylum*, *Anaxyrus boreas, Anaxyrus hemiophrys, Lithobates sylvaticus, Pseudacris maculata,* and *Rana luteiventris*). After the prefix for the species, files ending with "ini_final*" are the initial distribution inputs for the MIGCLIM script for the entire geographic range, and those inputs for the southern range only simulations are labeled "*ini_southern". Files ending with "hs" represent habitat suitability and the numbers indicate the time step for simulation to match the script (see GitHub code for MIGCLIM script). Note: the MIGCLIM package will convert the .tif files to .asc. Examples: ABMA*_*ini_final : Species ABMA, initial distribution raster RALU_hs5: Species RALU, habitat suitability raster for time period 5 ANBO_ini_south_final: Species ANBO, initial distribution for southern range edge simulations raster PSMA_hs1.tif: Species PSMA, habitat suitability raster for time period 0 See related GitHub: [trasea986/cc_disp_amphib](https://github.com/trasea986/cc_disp_amphib) For any questions please email [travis.seaborn@ndsu.edu](mailto:travis.seaborn@ndsu.edu) ## Access information Data was derived from the following sources: * WorldClim 2.0 * GBIF