DOI: 10.5061/dryad.2js61
title: Data from: Adaptation services of floodplains and wetlands under transformational climate change

description: Adaptation services are the ecosystem processes and services that benefit
 people by increasing their ability to adapt to change. Benefits may accrue
 from existing but newly-used services where ecosystems persist, or from
 novel services supplied following ecosystem transformation. Ecosystem
 properties that enable persistence or transformation are important
 adaptation services because they support future options. The adaptation
 services approach can be applied to decisions on trade-offs between
 currently valued services and benefits from maintaining future options.
 For example, ecosystem functions and services of floodplains depend on
 river flows. In those regions of the world where climate change
 projections are for hotter, drier conditions, floods will be less frequent
 and floodplains will either persist, though with modified structure and
 function, or transform to terrestrial (flood-independent) ecosystems. Many
 currently valued ecosystem services will reduce in supply or become
 unavailable, but new options are provided by adaptation services. We
 present a case study from the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia, for
 operationalizing the adaptation services concept for floodplains and
 wetlands. We found large changes in flow and flood regimes are likely
 under a scenario of +1.6°C by 2030, even with additional water restored to
 rivers under the proposed Murray-Darling Basin Plan. We predict major
 changes to floodplain ecosystems, including contraction of riparian
 forests and woodlands and expansion of terrestrial, drought-tolerant
 vegetation communities. Examples of adaptation services under this
 scenario include substitution of irrigated agriculture with dryland
 cropping and floodplain grazing; mitigation of damage from rarer, extreme
 floods; and increased tourism, recreational and cultural values derived
 from fewer, smaller wetlands that can be maintained with environmental
 flows. Management for adaptation services will require decisions on where
 intervention can enable ecosystem persistence and where transformation is
 inevitable. New ways of managing water that includes consideration of the
 increasing importance of adaptation services requires major changes to
 decision-making that better account for landscape heterogeneity and
 large-scale change, rather than attempting to maintain ecosystems in fixed
 states.
description: Changes in frequency and
 volume of floods 2015-12-01. Estimated percentage
 and ranked changes in the period between floods and flood volumes from
 current development, 1895-2006 climate to current development, 2030
 climate for major floodplains and wetlands in the Murray-Darling Basin.
 Overall rank change in flood regimes of for wetlands is mapped in Figure
 3d. No data was available for the Eastern Mt. Lofty Ranges Catchment. Data
 on changes in flood return period and volume is from Table 7.2 of each of
 the CSIRO MDBSY regional reports,
 http://www.csiro.au/en/Research/LWF/Areas/Water-resources/Assessing-water-resources/Sustainable-yields/MurrayDarlingBasin/ReportsWater availability 2015-12-01Changes in surface water availability for the environment (inflows minus diversions; highlighted in grey) in the Murray-Darling Basin (GL yr-1), calculated from inflow and diversion data in CSIRO (2008) and MDBA (2012). CSIRO (2008) Water Availability in the Murray-Darling Basin. A report to the Australian Government from the CSIRO Murray-Darling Basin Sustainable Yields Project. CSIRO, Canberra. Available at: http://www.csiro.au/science/MDBSY.html MDBA (2012) Hydrologic Modelling to Inform the Proposed Basin Plan: Methods and Results. MDBA Publication No. 17/12. Murray-Darling Basin Authority, Canberra.Ecosystem services 2015-12-01Semi-quantitative changes in bundles of ecosystem services and adaptation services under scenarios of ‘Without development’ ‘Current’, and ‘Climate change’. Potential ecosystem services that may be of value for adaptation were determined based on increase between ‘Current’ and ‘Climate Change’