DOI: 10.16904/envidat.535
title: Evaluating the predictive performance of human avalanche forecasts and model predictions in Switzerland

description: This data set was used in the analysis by Techel et al. **Can model-based avalanche forecasts match the discriminatory skill of human danger level forecasts? A comparison from Switzerland**. Please note that the title of the preprint was *Forecasting avalanche danger: human-made forecasts vs. fully automated model-driven predictions*, submitted to *Natural Hazards Earth System Sciences* on 20 Aug 2024.
The final manuscript used data from three forecasting seasons (2022/2023, 2023/2024, 2024/2025) , the preprint two forecasting seasons (2022/2023, 2023/2024) .
Currently, the repository contains data from two avalanche forecasting seasons in Switzerland. The third season will be added (to be done, 30 June 2025).
**Interpolated predictions**
- The .zip file contains the interpolated predictions for the three models in nowcast- and forecast- mode. This data is needed to reproduce the figures and tables in the submitted preprint.
The other data are the **raw data** underlying the interpolations:
- Avalanche forecast by WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, published at 17.00 local time, valid for the following 24 hours and relating to dry snow avalanche conditions.
- Model predictions in *nowcast*- and *forecast*-mode for three models (*danger level*, *instability*, *natural avalanche*), valid for 12.00 local time
- Subset of points extracted from GPS tracks (courtesy of Skitourenguru GmbH)
- Avalanche observations - natural avalanches and human-triggered avalanches
- Estimates of the snowline
- Randomly chosen subset of grid points used for generating reference distributions
For details regarding the data sets refer to the publication.
description: Resource Title: Snowline estimates 2023/2024
 Size: 2695027 bytes
 Format: application/vnd.ms-excel
 URL: https://www.envidat.ch/dataset/f821b651-245a-47b6-95d4-64c5497b8b21/resource/87671683-a61d-45c0-92ff-d60fa3bd7e88/download/schneegrenze_beobachtungen_23-24.csv
 Description: Daily snowline estimates provided by observers for North (aspect = 0) and South (aspect = 180) slopes for the 2023/2024 season. For aspects in between North and South, values are interpolated. Contains observation date (date), coordinates (Swiss coordinates x, y), snowline elevation (snowline), and aspect.
description: Resource Title: Snowline estimates 2022/2023
 Size: 2504217 bytes
 Format: application/vnd.ms-excel
 URL: https://www.envidat.ch/dataset/f821b651-245a-47b6-95d4-64c5497b8b21/resource/be143570-31b9-4f62-a51c-05bde676f461/download/schneegrenze_beobachtungen_22-23.csv
 Description: Daily snowline estimates provided by observers for North (aspect = 0) and South (aspect = 180) slopes for the 2022/2023 season. For aspects in between North and South, values are interpolated. Contains observation date (date), coordinates (Swiss coordinates x, y), snowline elevation (snowline), and aspect.
description: Resource Title: Randomly sampled subset of grid points from 1 km DEM
 Size: 17861 bytes
 Format: application/vnd.ms-excel
 URL: https://www.envidat.ch/dataset/f821b651-245a-47b6-95d4-64c5497b8b21/resource/021d90e0-68bd-42b6-8815-e26c10d3a363/download/dem_filteredavalancheelevations.csv
 Description: Contains the randomly sampled subset of grid points from 1 km DEM. Three variables: coordinates (x, y) and elevation (elev).
description: Resource Title: Avalanche forecast
 Size: 10232922 bytes
 Format: application/vnd.ms-excel
 URL: https://www.envidat.ch/dataset/f821b651-245a-47b6-95d4-64c5497b8b21/resource/80146d72-7abb-4b39-8336-613b49ed9a3c/download/bulletinprepared.csv
 Description: Data contains forecasts relating to dry-snow avalanche conditions only. Forecast issued at 17.00 local time. Contains variables for the warning region (sector_id), publication date (date), danger level - sub-level combination expressed using numeric values (integer value of danger level -0.33 for sub-level minus, -0 for sub-level neutral, +0.33 for sub-level plus, altitude as indicated in the bulletin, and whether aspect (North = 0, Northeast = 45, ...) was indicated in the bulletin (no: 0, yes: 1).
description: Resource Title: GPS data and human-triggered avalanches
 Size: 291620 bytes
 Format: application/vnd.ms-excel
 URL: https://www.envidat.ch/dataset/f821b651-245a-47b6-95d4-64c5497b8b21/resource/48dfa07a-0f63-4e09-9160-6777085094e6/download/tracksavalanches_parametersubset.csv
 Description: Contains (1) the subset of points extracted from GPS tracks recorded during backcountry touring and uploaded to the website skitourenguru.ch and (2) the corresponding subset of human-triggered avalanches. Data (1) was provided by Skitourenguru GmbH and data (2) was collected by SLF. - Variables contained are date, Swiss coordinates (x, y), aspect (N = 0, NE = 45, ...), elevation (ele), and event (event = 1, non-event = 0).
description: Resource Title: Natural avalanches 2023/2024 
 Size: 75730 bytes
 Format: application/vnd.ms-excel
 URL: https://www.envidat.ch/dataset/f821b651-245a-47b6-95d4-64c5497b8b21/resource/00b8d3db-ecf1-4a75-9ed9-b707fa2f6324/download/natural_avalanches_2023-2024.csv
 Description: Natural avalanche observation (dry avalanches). 2023/2024 forecasting season.
description: Resource Title: Natural avalanches 2022/2023
 Size: 73735 bytes
 Format: application/vnd.ms-excel
 URL: https://www.envidat.ch/dataset/f821b651-245a-47b6-95d4-64c5497b8b21/resource/ca5a219a-bf68-49ee-82b2-d386e221f5ef/download/natural_avalanches_2022-2023.csv
 Description: Natural avalanche observation (dry avalanches). 2022-2023 forecasting season.
description: Resource Title: Human-triggered avalanches 2022/2023
 Size: 41461 bytes
 Format: application/vnd.ms-excel
 URL: https://www.envidat.ch/dataset/f821b651-245a-47b6-95d4-64c5497b8b21/resource/32c06c01-381b-4def-9cc8-b0db86c457e9/download/human-triggered_avalanches_2022-2023.csv
 Description: The file contains the reported human-triggered avalanches. The variables are as follows: id, release date (date), name, Swiss coordinates (x,y), elevation (ele), remark, reported avalanche size expressed using avalanche activity index (sizeAAI), aspect, event type (type), event (yes = 1, no = 0)
description: Resource Title: Human-triggered avalanches 2023/2024
 Size: 38243 bytes
 Format: application/vnd.ms-excel
 URL: https://www.envidat.ch/dataset/f821b651-245a-47b6-95d4-64c5497b8b21/resource/4e3cc5ed-ff9a-4d74-ae66-08a868de5332/download/human-triggered_avalanches_2023-2024.csv
 Description: The file contains the reported human-triggered avalanches. The variables are as follows: id, release date (date), name, Swiss coordinates (x,y), elevation (ele), remark, reported avalanche size expressed using avalanche activity index (sizeAAI), aspect, event type (type), event (yes = 1, no = 0)
description: Resource Title: Model predictions (interpolated)
 Size: 85948873 bytes
 Format: application/x-zip-compressed
 URL: https://www.envidat.ch/dataset/f821b651-245a-47b6-95d4-64c5497b8b21/resource/d0599e29-dbf1-4d54-8c4b-10a248fd9fa2/download/model_predictions_interpolated.zip
 Description: The zip file contains csv-files the interpolated model predictions for three models, in forecast and nowcast-mode, for the three different data sets, as described in the publication.
description: Resource Title: Model predictions (raw data)
 Size: 24502560 bytes
 Format: application/x-zip-compressed
 URL: https://www.envidat.ch/dataset/f821b651-245a-47b6-95d4-64c5497b8b21/resource/cb2836c0-bab2-4686-b38b-2f3562827e89/download/modelpredictions_rawdata.zip
 Description: Model predictions (raw data) for three models, in nowcast and forecast mode. Not all models are available for both seasons. - These data are the basis for the interpolated predictions, which can be found in the other zip-folder