DOI: 10.3886/icpsr39326
title: Monitoring the Future: Base Year & Follow-Up Form 4 Panel Data, Ages 18-30, United States, 1976-2021 [Restricted-Use]
title: Archival Version

description: The MTF study consists of six different survey forms (five forms from 1976-1988).
This study contains the data for Form 4 longitudinal panel participants. The
MTF Form 4 restricted panel dataset includes data for the base year (BY) 12th
grade surveys (modal age 18) and their young adult follow-up FU surveys (modal
ages 19-30).
In
addition to demographic-related questions and questions about lifetime, annual,
and 30-day substance use that are included on all survey forms, Form 4 also
includes questions covering:

Beer, Wine, hard liquor, wine coolers use
Vaping sources
Flavored, small, and large cigars
Hookah, dissolvable tobacco, snus, and smokeless tobacco use
Own attitudes and perceptions about substance use
Perceived risk of substance use
Perceived friends' substance use
Perceived addictiveness of substances
Legal Issues Regarding Drugs
Delinquency, victimization, and feeling safe at school
Vocational plans, aspirations, expectations
Preferences regarding job characteristics
Desirability of different working arrangements and settings
Work ethic/success orientation
Dating and marriage: status, attitudes, expectations
Parenthood: attitudes, expectations
Values surrounding marriage and family
Personal materialism
Ecological concerns, conservation of resources
Attitudes toward governmental policies and practices
Local and global concerns
Voting behavior
Attitudes toward the military as an institution and occupation
Happiness; satisfaction with life domains and self

Please see the study documentation available on the MTF Panel series page for question-specific details.
More information about the MTF project can be accessed through the Monitoring the Future website. Annual reports are published by the research team, describing the data collection and trends over time.
description: Panel analysis weights are available and recommended
for use with all analyses.
Using the panel analysis weight allows estimates to
weight back to the national 12th grade samples while accounting for:

the probability of initial selection into the 12th grade samples
the fraction of each 12th grade sample not eligible for panel selection because they did not provide contact information and/or data on sex
the panel sample selection process including oversampling of those reporting drug use at base year
panel attrition

Please see the MTF Occasional Paper 98: An Updated Weighting Strategy for the Monitoring the Future Panel Study, for methodological details on the creation of the panel analysis weights, and review Supplement Appendix C: MTF Panel
Analysis Weight Selection and Normalization for analytic examples.
Of note: Beginning with datasets that include data through 2021, the panel analysis weights are included with each file. Prior to 2021, the panel analysis weights were available in a separate dataset which the researcher then merged into their working data sets. Please see the MTF panel data study NAHDAP 37072 for details.
description: Response Rates: For information regarding panel response rates, please see the latest MTF annual report.
description: The nationally-representative base year (BY)
cohort
sample (i.e. each high school senior class) was selected using a multistage
area probability sample design involving three selection stages: (1) geographic
areas or primary sampling units (PSUs), (2) schools (or linked groups of
schools) within PSUs, and (3) students within sampled schools.
Each year, 2,450 respondents to the 12th grade survey were
selected for biennial longitudinal follow-up. The panel sample was selected
within school by form and sex, and each base-year school was required to
have a minimum of two follow-up selections (individuals). The base year
sampling weight was factored into the targeted sample size for each school/form/sex
combination. An illicit drug user/nonuser stratification was created, based on
responses to nine base year questions about 30-day drug use. (An individual was
considered a "user" if they reported any use of LSD, hallucinogens
other than LSD, cocaine, amphetamines, sedatives/barbiturates, tranquilizers,
heroin, or narcotics other than heroin, or used marijuana 20 or more times in
the past 30 days.) Illicit drug users were sampled at a 3-to-1 rate relative to
non-users.
When the 12th grade respondents originally selected for follow-up reach age 35, they continue to be surveyed every five years at ages 35, 40, 45, 50, 55, and 60. Single questionnaires are presented at each age, covering many of the same topics as the age 19-30 surveys and including additional questions on life events, drug use, and health.
Please see Chapter 1 of the MTF
annual panel study report for additional sampling details.
description: Datasets: 
DS1: Monitoring the Future: Base Year & Follow-Up Form 4 Panel Data, Ages 18-30, United States, 1976-2021 [Restricted-Use]
description: Young adult follow-up of the U.S. high school seniors in MTF in the year of the baseline interview. Smallest Geographic Unit: Zip code
description: mail questionnaire; on-site questionnaire; web-based surveyMTF base year/high school surveys were conducted using the following methods:

1976-2018: paper-and-pencil surveys
2019: Randomization of half of the schools to the paper survey; half to a tablet-based survey preloaded with the MTF questionnaires
2020: Tablet surveys; data collection halted Mar. 15, 2020 due to COVID
2021+: Web-based surveys administered to all participants.
MTF Panel surveys from 1977-2021, for young adults (ages 19-30) were conducted by using the following methods:

1977-2017: Mailed paper surveys
2018-2019: A random half of all respondents received a mailed paper survey, while the other half were surveyed using a new procedure that encouraged participation using web surveys (web-push)
2020-2021: All respondents were asked to complete a web survey, and the paper survey was an option for those who did not complete the web survey.
More information about the MTF project can be accessed through the Monitoring the Future website. Annual reports are published by the research team, describing the data collection and trends over time.
This study was conducted by the Survey Research Center, Institute for Social Research at the University of Michigan.