DOI: 10.5061/dryad.tqjq2bw2c
title: Future seasonal changes in habitat for Arctic whales during predicted ocean warming

description: Ocean warming is causing shifts in the distributions of marine species,
 but the location of suitable habitats in the future is unknown, especially
 in remote regions such as the Arctic. Using satellite tracking data from a
 28-year long period, covering all three endemic Arctic cetaceans (227
 individuals) in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic, together with climate
 models under two emission scenarios, species distributions were projected
 to assess responses of these whales to climate change by the end of the
 century. While contrasting responses were observed across species and
 seasons, long-term predictions suggest northward shifts (243 km in summer
 vs. 121 km in winter) in distribution to cope with climate change. Current
 summer habitats will decline (mean loss: -25%), while some expansion into
 new winter areas (mean gain: +3%) is likely. However, comparing gains vs.
 losses raises serious concerns about the ability of these polar species to
 deal with the disappearance of traditional colder habitats.
description: To test if Arctic cetaceans
 will respond differently to ocean warming in areas west and east of
 Greenland, we utilized a
 large tracking dataset spanning 28 years, including sub-populations from
 all three Arctic endemic cetaceans in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic
 (n=227 individuals; bowhead whale, beluga and narwhal). Using
 environmental data from three different Global Climate Models (GCMs) from
 the Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 6 (CMIP6), a series of species
 distribution models were used to (i) predict current and (ii) project
 future (up to 2100) distributions of the three whale species in our study
 region, and to (iii) assess habitat and latitudinal changes in response to
 global warming.
description: # Arctic-whales-predicted-habitat This repository contains code and data
 necessary to generate the analyses and figures associated with the
 manuscript entitled "Future seasonal changes in habitat for Arctic
 whales during predicted ocean warming" (2022, Science Advances).
 Manuscript authors: Philippine Chambault, Kit M. Kovacs, Christian
 Lydersen, Olga Shpak, Jonas Teilmann, Christoffer M. Albertsen, Mads Peter
 Heide-Jørgensen. The dataset can be found here and includes the satellite
 tag-associated data filtered for the three whale species (Belugas,
 Narwhals and Bowhead whales), both localities (West and East Greenland)
 and both seasons (summer: Aug-Sep and winter: Dec-Mar); Bel refers to
 Beluga, Nar to Narwhal and Bw to Bowhead whale. The R codes have been
 archived in the Zenodo repository
 (). The R code supporting this
 manuscript is also available on GitHub
 (
 Both contemporary and climatic environmental data needed to run the
 habitat modelling scripts can be found on Copernicus-MyOcean
 () and CMIP6 () portals. Funding sources: PC was supported by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement No48068 (project WARMM). This study was supported by the Norwegian Research Council (ICE-whales, grant no. 244488/E10), the Norwegian Polar Institute, the Norway-Russia Environment Commission, the Office of Naval Research (ONR, USA, award nos. N00014-13-1-0854, N00014-14-1-0424, and N00014-17-1-2233), the Commission for Scientific Research in Greenland, the Danish Cooperation for the Environment in the Arctic (DANCEA), the Carlsberg Foundation, the Greenland Institute of Natural Resources, and the Environmental Agency for Mineral Resource Activities of the Government of Greenland.