DOI: 10.5061/dryad.63g03p8
title: Data from: Current and projected future risks of freshwater fish invasions in China

description: Biological invasions are a primary threat to global biodiversity,
 supporting mounting calls for the development of early-warning systems to
 manage existing and emerging invaders. Here, we evaluated the geographical
 pattern of invasion risks of currently established and potentially
 emerging nonnative freshwater fishes in China by jointly considering the
 threats of introduction and establishment under climate change.
 Introduction threats were estimated according to proxies of human
 activities and propagule pressure for two primary pathways (aquaculture or
 ornamental). Establishment threats for 51 current and 64 potential
 invaders (based on whether having established or not self-sustaining
 populations) were assessed using an ensemble of species distribution
 models under current (1960-1990) and future [2041-2060 (2050s) and
 2061-2080 (2070s)] climate scenarios. Geographical patterns of invasion
 risk were then assessed by overlaying the threats of introduction and
 establishment for each species group both in present-day and in the
 future. We found that eastern China displayed the highest threat of
 introduction. In contrast, southeastern and northwestern regions were
 identified as the most suitable for the establishment of both current and
 potential future invaders. Under a changing climate, 83 out of 115 species
 displayed an increase in habitat suitability, resulting in an overall
 increase of 4.8% by 2050s and 7.1% by 2070s in the extent of suitable
 habitat for nonnative freshwater fishes. Taken together, invasion risk was
 found to be highest in southeastern China and lowest in the Tibet Plateau.
 Our research highlights the importance of assessing invasion risk by
 integrating the threats associated with the introduction and establishment
 stages. In particular, our findings revealed convergent patterns of
 invasion risk between current and potential nonnative freshwater fishes
 under climate change. Geographic patterns in hotspots of existing and
 emerging invasions provide critical insights to guide the allocation of
 resources to monitor and control existing and emerging invasions in China.
description: The high-resolution maps
 of habitat suitability for all species under current and future (2050s and
 2070s) climatic scenariosSpatial patterns of
 species-specific establishment threat under current, 2050s and 2070s
 climate scenarios for the 115 species considered in this study. The
 upright panel indicates the changes in species establishment threat
 expressed as the total suitable area (10^6 km2). The middle panel
 represents the probability (%) of presence predicted by species
 distribution models (SDMs) at different time horizons. The lower panel
 represents the uncertainty in establishment threat expressed as the
 coefficient of variation of the occurrence probabilities among all
 projections. The color of species name corresponds to four groups
 clustered based on introduction pathways and species status. Darkorange:
 Current aquaculture species, Turquoise: Current ornamental species,
 Burlywood: Potential aquaculture species, Darkslategray: Potential
 ornamental species.HabitatSuitabilityMaps.zip