DOI: 10.16904/envidat.392
title: Presence probability risk maps neophyte Ticino

description: 943 disturbances in the forest of southern Switzerland have been visited and characterized with various general and specific parameters and the presence absence of woody neophyte species has also been recorded. 
A Generalized linear regression modelling approach with a binomial family (link function “logit”) was then used to analyse the effects of these parameters on the presence/absence of the six most widespread neophyte species separately (i.e Ailanthus altissima, Buddleja davidii, R. pseudoacacia, Paulownia tomentosa, Prunus laurocerasus, Trachycarpus fortunei). If needed, the models were refitted with the spmodel R-package to account for the spatial dependence.
The best model for every species have been used to predict the risk of invasion on a 25 X 25m grid of 1’773’603 million of points covering the entire forest area under 1’500 m a.s.l. Predictions over this new set of points have been computed with the predict function (v4.2.1; R core Team, 2023) and using the best select model for every neophyte species. The resulting prediction are available as a raster tiff. 
These presence probability risk maps for the forest area of the entire canton Ticino provide a practical tool to be used in combination with the waldmonitoring.ch data allowing to efficiently monitor the spread of woody neophyte species in new disturbances in the forest.
description: Resource Title: neophytes risk map ticino
 Size: 52879919 bytes
 Format: application/x-zip-compressed
 URL: https://www.envidat.ch/dataset/523d7675-93a9-4adf-a03d-883da21f4e91/resource/f0df95e9-0ca4-4023-99e2-43b9b1be6917/download/risk_map.zip
 Description: Pixel values represent the proability of presence for a given species. 0 = absent, 1 = 100% of presence
description: Resource Title: neophytes_risk_map_ticinoV2.zip
 Size: 52855473 bytes
 Format: application/x-zip-compressed
 URL: https://www.envidat.ch/dataset/523d7675-93a9-4adf-a03d-883da21f4e91/resource/bebc66a3-fc80-4f5f-9ee7-afae951b87dd/download/neophytes_risk_map_ticino.zip
 Description: Some models has been refined. Here are the updated raster.
Pixel values represent the proability of presence for a given species. 0 = absent, 1 = 100% of presence
description: Resource Title: neophytes risk map ticino 2024 V3.zip
 Size: 189857690 bytes
 Format: application/x-zip-compressed
 URL: https://www.envidat.ch/dataset/523d7675-93a9-4adf-a03d-883da21f4e91/resource/9a9cae21-b2cb-415f-a0a2-6fcee3516bd1/download/neophytes_risk_map_ticino.zip
 Description: Some models have been refined. These are the updated maps. 
Pixel values represent the probability of presence for a given species. 0 = species absent, 1 = the probability that the species is present is 100%.
Four maps per species are available:
- "silvi" = the map shows the presence probability after a silvicultural intervention
- "other" = the map shows the presence probability after anthropic disturbance (e.g. powerline or road maintenance)
- "natural" = the map shows the presence probability after a natural disturbance (e.g. uprooted tree, forest fire)
- "average" = the map shows the presence probability after a disturbance. The value is the average of the three disturbance types (silvicultural intervention, anthropic disturbance, natural disturbance)