DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.16953580
title: LuccME Nexus sustainable land use and land cover change scenarios for Brazil 2050

description: Based on two alternative sustainable narratives (more information: https://zenodo.org/doi/10.5281/zenodo.10154263), we created quantitative land use and land cover change scenarios representing the evolution of land use change until 2050. These scenarios were developed using the LuccME spatially explicit modeling framework (www.luccme.ccst.inpe.br). The analysis also included the quantification of a scenario based on current trends. Our model considers the following land use classes: the percentage of natural forest vegetation (forve), natural non-forest vegetation (couve), planted pasture (pastm), agriculture (agric), planted forest (silvi), and multiple-use mosaic (mosai) (used as a proxy for small-scale family farming).

Calibration and validation period: 2012-2020

Simulation: 2020-2050

Data usage

It's free to use, but make sure to cite the repository.

More information







For additional information about the scenario, please contact Ana Paula Aguiar (ana.aguiar@inpe.br).




Acknowledgments

The authors would like to thank the NEXUS Project, funded by the São Paulo Research Foundation – FAPESP (2022/05856-0 and 2017/22269-2).

Archives

The following archives are available.

LUCCMEBR_land_cover_type_10km2_epsg5880_2012-2020.zip: Percentage of land use and land cover from 2012 to 2020 (observed).

LUCCME_NEXUS_Historical_Trend_land_cover_type_100km2_2020_2050.zip: Area in hectares of land use and land cover from 2021 to 2050 (simulated).

LUCCME_NEXUS_Green_Transition_land_cover_type_100km2_2020_2050.zip: Area in hectares of land use and land cover from 2021 to 2050 (simulated).

LUCCME_NEXUS_ Lives_in_Balance_land_cover_type_100km2_2020_2050.zip: Area in hectares of land use and land cover from 2021 to 2050 (simulated).

LUCCME_NEXUS_Historical_Trend_increment_land_cover_type_10km2_epsg5880_2021_2050.zip: Increment of area in hectares of land use and land cover from 2021 to 2050 (simulated).

LUCCME_NEXUS_Green_Transition_increment_land_and_cover_type_10km2_epsg5880_2021_2050.zip: Increment of area in hectares of land use and land cover from 2021 to 2050 (simulated).

LUCCME_NEXUS_ Lives_in_Balance_increment_land_cover_type_10km2_epsg5880_2021_2050.zip: Increment of area in hectares of land use and land cover from 2021 to 2050 (simulated).
description: LUCCMEBR_land_cover_type_10km2_epsg5880_2012-2020.zip

Metadata



Data type: shapefile

Datum SIRGAS 2000 Polyconic (EPSG5880)

Source: the proportion of each class in the cell was obtained using the IBGE land use and land cover map as a data source 



Data range: 0-1, meaning 0 equals 0% of the class in the cell and 1 equals 100% of the class in the cell.



Temporal scale



Extension: 2012 - 2020

Resolution: bi-anual (2012, 2014, 2016, 2018, 2020)



Spatial scale



Extension: Brazil

Resolution: 10 km x 10 km cell



Columns available





Name
Description


id
Cell identification


col
Column identification


row
Row identification


forve_12
Proportion of Natural Forest Vegetation in 2012.


couve_12
Proportion of Non-Natural Forest Vegetation in 2012.


agric_12
Proportion of Agriculture in 2012.


pastm_12
Proportion of Planted Pasture in 2012.


silvi_12
Proportion of Planted Forest in 2012.


mosai_12
Proportion of multiple-use Mosaic in 2012.


forve_14
Proportion of Natural Forest Vegetation in 2014.


couve_14
Proportion of Non-Natural Forest Vegetation in 2014.


agric_14
Proportion of Agriculture in 2014.


pastm_14
Proportion of Planted Pasture in 2014.


silvi_14
Proportion of Planted Forest in 2014.


mosai_14
Proportion of multiple-use Mosaic in 2014.


forve_16
Proportion of Natural Forest Vegetation in 2016.


couve_16
Proportion of Non-Natural Forest Vegetation in 2016.


agric_16
Proportion of Agriculture in 2016.


pastm_16
Proportion of Planted Pasture in 2016.


silvi_16
Proportion of Planted Forest in 2016.


mosai_16
Proportion of multiple-use Mosaic in 2016.


forve_18
Proportion of Natural Forest Vegetation in 2018.


couve_18
Proportion of Non-Natural Forest Vegetation in 2018.


agric_18
Proportion of Agriculture in 2018.


pastm_18
Proportion of Planted Pasture in 2018.


silvi_18
Proportion of Planted Forest in 2018.


mosai_18
Proportion of multiple-use Mosaic in 2018.


forve_20
Proportion of Natural Forest Vegetation in 2020.


couve_20
Proportion of Non-Natural Forest Vegetation in 2020.


agric_20
Proportion of Agriculture in 2020.


pastm_20
Proportion of Planted Pasture in 2020.


silvi_20
Proportion of Planted Forest in 2020.


mosai_20
Proportion of multiple-use Mosaic in 2020.


others
Proportion of all other classes
description: LUCCME_NEXUS_Historical_Trend_land_cover_type_10km2_epsg5880_2020_2050.zip

Metadata



Scenario: Historical Trend

Data type: shapefile

Datum SIRGAS 2000 Polyconic (EPSG5880)

Source: area (ha) of each class in the cell simulated for each year



Unit: ha.



Temporal scale



Extension: 2020-2050

Resolution: anually



Spatial scale



Extension: Brazil

Resolution: 10 km x 10 km cell



Columns available





Name
Description


id
Cell identification


col
Column identification


row
Row identification


forveAyearX
Area in hectares of Natural Forest Vegetation in the year X from 2020 to 2050.


couveAyearX
Area in hectares of Non-Natural Forest Vegetation in the year X from 2020 to 2050.


agricAyearX
Area in hectares of Agriculture in the year X from 2020 to 2050.


pastmAyearX
Area in hectares of Planted Pasture in the year X from 2020 to 2050.


silviAyearX
Area in hectares of Planted Forest in the year X from 2020 to 2050.


mosaiAyearX
Area in hectares of Mosaic in the year X from 2020 to 2050.


others
Area in hectares of all other classes. It doesn't change across years. 
description: LUCCME_NEXUS_Green_Transition_land_cover_type_10km2_epsg5880_2020_2050.zip

Metadata



Scenario: Green Transition

Data type: shapefile

Datum SIRGAS 2000 Polyconic (EPSG5880)

Source: area (ha) of each class in the cell simulated for each year



Unit: ha.



Temporal scale



Extension: 2020-2050

Resolution: annually



Spatial scale



Extension: Brazil

Resolution: 10 km x 10 km cell



Columns available





Name
Description


id
Cell identification


col
Column identification


row
Row identification


forveAyearX
Area in hectares of Natural Forest Vegetation in the year X from 2020 to 2050.


couveAyearX
Area in hectares of Non-Natural Forest Vegetation in the year X from 2020 to 2050.


agricAyearX
Area in hectares of Agriculture in the year X from 2020 to 2050.


pastmAyearX
Area in hectares of Planted Pasture in the year X from 2020 to 2050.


silviAyearX
Area in hectares of Planted Forest in the year X from 2020 to 2050.


mosaiAyearX
Area in hectares of Mosaic in the year X from 2020 to 2050.


others
Area in hectares of all other classes. It doesn't change across years. 
description: LUCCME_NEXUS_ Lives_in_Balance_land_cover_type_10km2_epsg5880_2020_2050.zip

Metadata



Scenario: Lives in Balance

Data type: shapefile

Datum SIRGAS 2000 Polyconic (EPSG5880)

Source: area (ha) of each class in the cell simulated for each year



Unit: ha



Temporal scale



Extension: 2020-2050

Resolution: annually



Spatial scale



Extension: Brazil

Resolution: 10 km x 10 km cell



Columns available





Name
Description


id
Cell identification


col
Column identification


row
Row identification


forveAyearX
Area in hectares of Natural Forest Vegetation in the year X from 2020 to 2050.


couveAyearX
Area in hectares of Non-Natural Forest Vegetation in the year X from 2020 to 2050.


agricAyearX
Area in hectares of Agriculture in the year X from 2020 to 2050.


pastmAyearX
Area in hectares of Planted Pasture in the year X from 2020 to 2050.


silviAyearX
Area in hectares of Planted Forest in the year X from 2020 to 2050.


mosaiAyearX
Area in hectares of Mosaic in the year X from 2020 to 2050.


others
Area in hectares of all other classes. It doesn't change across years. 
description: LUCCME_NEXUS_Historical_Trend_increment_land_cover_type_10km2_epsg5880_2021_2050.zip

Metadata



Scenario: Historical Trend

Data type: shapefile

Datum SIRGAS 2000 Polyconic (EPSG5880)

Source: increment of area (ha) of each class in the cell simulated for each year



Unit: ha



Temporal scale



Extension: 2021-2050

Resolution: annually 



Spatial scale



Extension: Brazil

Resolution: 10 km x 10 km cell



Columns available





Name
Description


id
Cell identification


col
Column identification


row
Row identification


forveAyearX
Incremented area in hectares of Natural Forest Vegetation in the year X.


couveAyearX
Incremented area in hectares of Non-Natural Forest Vegetation in the year X.


agricAyearX
Incremented area in hectares of Agriculture in the year X.


pastmAyearX
Incremented area in hectares of Planted Pasture in the year X.


silviAyearX
Incremented area in hectares of Planted Forest in the year X.


mosaiAyearX
Incremented area in hectares of Mosaic in the year X.
description: LUCCME_NEXUS_Green_Transition_increment_land_and_cover_type_10km2_epsg5880_2021_2050.zip.zip

Metadata



Scenario: Green Transition

Data type: shapefile

Datum SIRGAS 2000 Polyconic (EPSG5880)

Source: increment of area (ha) of each class in the cell simulated for each year



Unit: ha



Temporal scale



Extension: 2021-2050

Resolution: annually



Spatial scale



Extension: Brazil

Resolution: 10 km x 10 km cell



Columns available





Name
Description


id
Cell identification


col
Column identification


row
Row identification


forveAyearX
Incremented area in hectares of Natural Forest Vegetation in the year X.


couveAyearX
Incremented area in hectares of Non-Natural Forest Vegetation in the year X.


agricAyearX
Incremented area in hectares of Agriculture in the year X.


pastmAyearX
Incremented area in hectares of Planted Pasture in the year X.


silviAyearX
Incremented area in hectares of Planted Forest in the year X.


mosaiAyearX
Incremented area in hectares of Mosaic in the year X.
description: LUCCME_NEXUS_ Lives_in_Balance_increment_land_cover_type_10km2_epsg5880_2021_2050.zip

Metadata



Scenario: Lives in Balance

Data type: shapefile

Datum SIRGAS 2000 Polyconic (EPSG5880)

Source: increment of area (ha) of each class in the cell simulated for each year



Unit: ha



Temporal scale



Extension: 2021-2050

Resolution: annually



Spatial scale



Extension: Brazil

Resolution: 10 km x 10 km cell



Columns available





Name
Description


id
Cell identification


col
Column identification


row
Row identification


forveAyearX
Incremented area in hectares of Natural Forest Vegetation in the year X.


couveAyearX
Incremented area in hectares of Non-Natural Forest Vegetation in the year X.


agricAyearX
Incremented area in hectares of Agriculture in the year X.


pastmAyearX
Incremented area in hectares of Planted Pasture in the year X.


silviAyearX
Incremented area in hectares of Planted Forest in the year X.


mosaiAyearX
Incremented area in hectares of Mosaic in the year X.