DOI: 10.5061/dryad.3r2280gtm
title: Species' traits modulate rapid changes in flight time in high-Arctic muscid flies under climate change

description: Insects are experiencing notable phenological shifts due to climate
 change, with substantial interspecific variability. However, our
 understanding is limited by a shortage of long-term studies, beyond
 Lepidoptera. This study presents a hierarchical modeling framework to
 analyze the phenological distribution of eleven muscid fly species across
 three vegetation types over 18 years (1996 - 2014) in Zackenberg,
 Northeast Greenland. We examined species-specific changes in phenology and
 assessed ecological traits for explaining interspecific variation.
 Additionally, we investigated the associations between phenological shifts
 and timing of snowmelt and temperature. We found consistent trends of
 earlier flight activity and interspecific variation in responses, with
 smaller species shifting their end of the season activity at faster rates
 than larger species. Flight activity was strongly associated with the
 timing of snowmelt, while warming was linked to an earlier end of the
 flight season. Late-active species exhibited more pronounced shifts in
 response to climate variations than early-active species. This study
 highlights the species-specific climate sensitivity of high-Arctic muscid
 flies potentially having demographic effects if temporal overlaps among
 interacting species change. We advocate for prioritizing species-specific
 insect population studies, ideally analyzed within the context of
 interacting species, to understand better and address disparities in
 responses to climate change.
description: # Species' traits modulate rapid changes in flight time in
 high-Arctic muscid flies under climate change Dataset DOI:
 [10.5061/dryad.3r2280gtm](10.5061/dryad.3r2280gtm) ## Description of the
 data and file structure This repository contains the data necessary to
 replicate data analyses, figures and tables in the manuscript:
 ***Species' traits modulate rapid changes in flight time in
 high-Arctic muscid flies under climate change*** *Note on data provenance
 and licensing:* This dataset includes original data and materials created
 by the authors, which are released under the Creative Commons Zero (CC0
 1.0) Public Domain Dedication. These original contributions are free to
 use without restriction. **File:** Zackenberg_Muscidae_SL.csv
 **Description:** Raw Muscidae abundance data. ##### Variables * Site:
 Region of data collection (Zackenberg, Northeast Greenland) * Plot:
 Vegetation type flies were caught in. * Trap: Trap replicates within each
 plot (A or B). * Day: Day of the month of sampling. * Month: Month of
 sampling. * Year: Year of sampling. * DOY: Day of year of sampling *
 Species_name: Name of species sampled. * Sex: Male or female flies.
 **File**:** **All_species_clean.csv **Description**: Cleaned species
 abundance dataset used for phenology analysis. This version includes all
 capture dates, including zero-capture events, and applies filtering
 criteria described in the main manuscript. ##### Variables * **Year**:
 Year of sampling. - **Plot**: Vegetation type in which flies were sampled.
 - **DOY**: Day of year (Julian day) the sampling occurred. -
 **Species_name**: Scientific name of the species recorded. -
 **Abundance**: Number of individuals of the species captured on that date.
 - **Event**: Indicates whether the species was captured frequently enough
 in a given year to be used in phenological analysis. * `1` = sampled at
 least three times during the season * `0` = sampled fewer than three times
 - **TotalYear**: Total number of years the species was captured in a given
 plot (range: 0–18; a value of 18 indicates annual capture across all study
 years). - **Include**: Indicates whether the species-year combination
 meets inclusion criteria for phenology analysis (i.e., observed at least
 three times in a season and present in at least five years). * `1` =
 include in analysis * `0` = exclude from analysis ### **Files with climate
 data:** **File:** Snowmelt_Climatestation.xlsx **Description:** Annual
 estimates of snowmelt timing. ##### Variables * **Year**: Year of
 sampling. * **SnowmeltDOY**: Day of year of annual snowmelt. In the
 following datasets, temperature data has been merged with phenology
 estimates: **File:** All_species_cleanup_onset.csv **File**:
 All_species_cleanup_peak.csv **File**: All_species_cleanup_end.csv #####
 Variables * **Year**: Year of sampling. * **SnowmeltDOY**: Day of year of
 annual snowmelt. * **Plot**: Vegetation type in which flies were sampled.
 * **DOY**: Day of year (Julian day) the sampling occurred. *
 **Species_name**: Scientific name of the species recorded. *
 **Abundance**: Number of individuals of the species captured on that date.
 * **Event**: Indicates whether the species was captured frequently enough
 in a given year to be used in phenological analysis. * `1` = sampled at
 least three times during the season * `0` = sampled fewer than three times
 * **TotalYear**: Total number of years the species was captured in a given
 plot (range: 0–18; a value of 18 indicates annual capture across all study
 years). * **Include**: Indicates whether the species-year combination
 meets inclusion criteria for phenology analysis (i.e., observed at least
 three times in a season and present in at least five years). * `1` =
 include in analysis * `0` = exclude from analysis - **Temperature**:
 Average air temperature (°C) over the 30 days preceding the mean
 phenological event (onset, peak, or end of activity) for each species-year
 combination. ### **File with DNA sequence data:** **File:**
 dna_sequence_muscidae.csv **Description:** DNA sequence data for analysis
 on phylogenetic signals in muscid flies at Zackenberg. ##### Variables *
 **id**: ID for each muscid fly species. * **sequence**: DNA sequence of
 the folmer region of the COI gene. ### **Files with phenology estimates:**
 **File:** onset_estimates_na_removed.csv
 **File:** peak_estimates_na_removed.csv
 **File:** end_estimates_na_removed.csv **Description:** These files
 contain phenology estimates for the **onset**, **peak**, and **end** of
 flight activity for Muscidae species. Each file includes data used to
 analyze temporal trends in phenological responses across years. Records
 with missing values (NA) have been removed to ensure consistent time
 series analysis. ##### Variables * **species**: Scientific name of the
 species recorded. * **plot**: Vegetation type in which flies were sampled.
 * **year**: Year of sampling. * **.onset**: Estimated onset of flight
 activity for each species (Julian day). * **.peak**: Estimated peak of
 flight activity for each species (Julian day). * **.end**: Estimated end
 of flight activity for each species (Julian day). * **.lower_ci**: Lower
 bound of the confidence interval for the estimated phenological event. *
 **.upper_ci**: Upper bound of the confidence interval for the estimated
 phenological event. * **.se**: Standard error of the estimated
 phenological event. * **.inv_std_err**: Inverse of the standard error;
 used as a weighting factor in statistical models. ### **Files with model
 summaries:** **File:** df_summary_onset.csv **File:** df_summary_peak.csv
 **File:** df_summary_end.csv **Description:** These files contain summary
 statistics from linear models assessing phenological trends (onset, peak,
 and end of activity) for each Muscidae species within each plot. Each
 summary includes model outputs alongside associated species traits used in
 further analysis. ##### Variables * **species**: Scientific name of the
 species recorded. * **plot**: Vegetation type in which flies were sampled.
 * **pheno_event**: Phenological event analyzed (onest, peak or end of
 activity). * **slope**: Estimated rate of change in the phenological event
 (onset, peak, or end) over time (days per year). * **SE**: Standard error
 of the slope estimate. * **Tvalue**: t-statistic from the linear model,
 used to assess the significance of the slope. * **Pvalue**: p-value
 associated with the t-statistic, indicating whether the slope differs
 significantly from zero. * **Rsquare**: Coefficient of determination (R²),
 representing the proportion of variance in the phenological event
 explained by the model. * **AdjRSquare**: Adjusted R², which accounts for
 the number of predictors in the model and sample size. * **n**: Number of
 years (observations) included in the model for that species-plot
 combination. * **Residual**: Sum of squared residuals from the linear
 model (measure of model error). * **body_size**: Average body size of the
 species (mm); used as a trait variable in comparative analyses. *
 **pheno_niche**: Phenological niche classification, reflecting the typical
 seasonal activity period of the species (early or late season). *
 **flower_visiting**: Binary variable indicating whether the species is
 known to visit flowers. * Frequent = flower-visiting * Irregular = not
 flower-visiting ## Code/software Software used: R Statistical Software
 (v4.4.1; R Core Team 2024) Packages: "tibble" v. 3.2.1,
 "dplyr" v. 1.1.4, "tidyr" v. 1.3.1,
 "ggplot2" v. 3.5.1, "mgcv" v. 1.9-1, ```
 "gratia" v. 0.10.0, "purrr" v. 1.0.2,
 "furrr" v. 0.3.1, "janitor" v. 2.2.1 ``` ## Access
 information ### Other publicly accessible locations of the data: This
 dataset was originally informed by environmental and phenological
 observations published by the Greenland Ecosystem Monitoring Programme
 under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International
 (CC-BY-SA-4.0) license. However, no raw data or materials under that
 license are included in this Dryad submission. Only derived summaries or
 references to those external sources remain, and all third-party content
 has been clearly cited below for attribution and reproducibility. ####
 Appropriate ways to cite third-party sources: **Phenological
 observations:** Observations at Zackenberg were provided by the Greenland
 Ecosystem Monitoring Programme. Family data for Muscidae is available at:
 [https://data.g-e-m.dk/](https://data.g-e-m.dk/). **Cite as:** Greenland
 Ecosystem Monitoring (2025). BioBasis Zackenberg - Arthropods - Arthropod
 emergence (Version 1.0). [Data set] [CC-BY-SA-4.0]. Greenland Ecosystem
 Monitoring.
 [https://doi.org/10.17897/V285-Z265](https://doi.org/10.17897/V285-Z265)
 **Environmental predictors:** Temperature and snowmelt observations for
 Zackenberg were also provided by the Greenland Ecosystem Monitoring
 Programme. Data are available at:
 [https://data.g-e-m.dk/](https://data.g-e-m.dk/). A formatted version,
 including all estimated temperature and snowmelt timing values, is
 included in this repository. If using the original data downloaded
 directly from the database, please cite as: * Greenland Ecosystem
 Monitoring (2025). *ClimateBasis Zackenberg – Air temperature – Air
 temperature, 200 cm @ 60 min sample (°C)* (Version 1.0). [Data set]
 [CC-BY-SA-4.0]. Greenland Ecosystem Monitoring.
 [https://doi.org/10.17897/XV96-HC57](https://doi.org/10.17897/XV96-HC57) *
 Greenland Ecosystem Monitoring (2025). *ClimateBasis Zackenberg –
 Precipitation – Snow depth – 180 min sample (m)* (Version 1.0). [Data set]
 [CC-BY-SA-4.0]. Greenland Ecosystem Monitoring.
 [https://doi.org/10.17897/7RVV-Z412](https://doi.org/10.17897/7RVV-Z412)