DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.4751933
title: Alien invaders and reptile traders: risk assessment and modelling of trends, vectors and traits influencing introduction and establishment of alien reptiles and amphibians

description: Biological invasions are a growing threat to biodiversity, trade and agriculture in South Africa. Though alien reptiles and amphibians (herpetofauna or herps) are not currently a major threat, escalating problems worldwide and increased trade in South Africa suggest a possible increase in future problems. In this thesis I explore practical measures for risk assessment implementable under national legislation. I began by documenting record keeping and legislative differences between provinces in South Africa. This revealed some serious deficiencies, complicating attempts to compile accurate inventories and discern import trends. International trade data, however, revealed an exponential increase in the number of imports to South Africa over the last 30 years. Characterising the abundance of species in this trade is important as species introduced in large numbers pose a higher establishment risk. In South Africa, I found a tendency for venomous and expensive species to be traded in low numbers, whereas species that are easy to breed and handle, or that are colourful or patterned are traded in higher numbers. Unlike South Africa, California and Florida have had a large number of well-documented herp introductions. These introductions were used to verify the role of several key predictors in species establishment. I first evaluated the role of each variable separately. I examined different approaches for bioclimatic modelling, the predictive power of different sources of distribution data, and methods of assigning a climate-match score. I also present the first test of Darwin's naturalization hypothesis for land vertebrates using two new phylogenies inferred for native and introduced reptiles in California and Florida. I then used boosted regression trees (BRT) to infer the relative contribution of each factor to species establishment success. Results from the BRTs were incorporated into a user friendly spreadsheet model for use by assessors inexperienced in complex modelling techniques. Introduction effort was the strongest contributor to establishment success. Furthermore, species with short juvenile periods were more likely to establish than species that started breeding later, as were species with more distant relatives in regional biotas. Average climate match and life form were also important. Of the herp groups, frogs and lizards were most likely to establish, while snakes and turtles established at much lower rates, though analysis of all recorded herp introductions shows slightly different patterns. Predictions made by the BRT model to independent data were relatively poor, though this is unlikely to be unique to this study and is partially explained by missing data. Though numerous uncertainties remain in this field, many can be lessened by applying case by case rules rather than generalising across all herp groups. The purpose for import and trade and potential trade volume of a species will influence the threat it poses. Considering this in conjunction with a species' environmental tolerances and previous success of species with similar life histories, should provide a reasonable and defendable estimate of establishment risk. Finally, a brief summary of the potential impacts of introduced alien herps is provided in the thesis.
description: This dataset was developed as part of my PhD thesis. This thesis aims to promote sensible management of alien reptile and amphibian species in South Africa and elsewhere.