DOI: 10.5061/dryad.rxwdbrvdw
title: Data for: Range reshuffling: climate change, invasive species, and the case of Nothofagus forests in Aotearoa New Zealand

description: Aim: The impact of climate change on forest biodiversity and ecosystem
 services will be partly determined by the relative fortunes of invasive
 and native forest trees under future conditions. Aotearoa New Zealand has
 high conservation value native forests and one of the world’s worst
 invasive tree problems. We assess the relative effects of habitat
 redistribution on native Nothofagus and invasive conifer (Pinaceae)
 species in New Zealand as a case study on the compounding impacts of
 climate change and tree invasions. Location: Aotearoa New Zealand Methods:
 We use species distribution models (SDMs) to predict the current and
 future distribution of habitat for five native Nothofagus species and 13
 invasive conifer species under two 2070 climate scenarios. We calculate
 habitat loss/gain for all species and examine overlap between the invasive
 and native species now and in the future.   Results:
 Most species will lose habitat overall. The native species saw large
 changes in the distribution of habitat with extensive losses in North
 Island and gains mostly in South Island. Concerningly, we found that most
 new habitat for Nothofagus was also suitable for at least one invasive
 species. However, there were refugia for the native species in the wetter
 parts of the climate space. Main conclusion: If the predicted changes in
 habitat distribution translate to shifts in forest distribution it would
 cause widespread ecological disruption. We discuss how acclimation,
 adaptation and biotic interactions may delay some changes. But we also
 highlight how the poor migration and establishment capacity of native
 Nothofagus and the competitive ability of invasive conifers will be a
 persistent conservation challenge in areas of both new habitat and forest
 retreat. Pinaceae are problematic invaders globally, and our results
 highlight that control of invasions and active native forest restoration
 will likely be key to managing forest biodiversity under future climates.
description: Some data were drawn from the New Zealand Natural
 Forest plot data collected between January 2002 and 2022 by the LUCAS
 programme for the New Zealand Ministry for the Environment. Other data
 orignated from our own field work (van Galen et. al. (2023) Molecular
 Ecology 32, 2092– 2109). The remaining data used in the manuscript were
 downloaded from the Atlas of Living Australia (ALA) and the Global
 Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF); due to licensing requirements
 these data are available via DOIs provided in the manuscript and README
 file.
description: R (open source) is required for running the code and opening .rds
 files. Other files are .csv and .tiff. 
description: # Data for "Range reshuffling: climate change, invasive species, and
 the case of Nothofagus forests in Aotearoa New Zealand" *** The
 following files are included: "Range reshuffling R code.R" The R
 code used to clean the data, conduct the analysis, and make the figures
 Further details are provided within
 "data\_combined\_Nothofagus\_xxx.csv" Five files each containing
 raw occurrence records (prior to cleaning) of the five *Nothofagus*
 species that originated from the New Zealand Indigenous Carbon Monitoring
 System (LUCAS) and our own field work. *Nothofagus* records from the Atlas
 of Living Australia (ALA) that were also used are available via DOIs
 listed at the end of this document. Column headings: * decimalLatitude =
 Latitude in decimal degrees * decimalLongitude = Longitude in decimal
 degrees * species = the species * dataOrigin = whether records were from
 the New Zealand Indigenous Carbon Monitoring System (LUCAS), or our own
 records (OwnRecords; see manuscript)
 "data\_target\_background\_Nothofagus.rds" The target background
 points of woody New Zealand plants used in the *Nothofagus* species
 distribution models (SDMs) Column headings: * decimalLatitude = Latitude
 in decimal degrees * decimalLongitude = Longitude in decimal degrees *
 scientifficName = species name "suitability\_current\_xxx.tif"
 Raster layers (Behrmann equal-area projection at
 1km<sup>2</sup> resolution) for each of the 18 species showing
 the predicted probability of occurrence under current climate conditions.
 For the figures in the manuscript cells with probability values below the
 binary threshold value (calculated separately for each species; see
 manuscript) were masked "suitability\_ssp126\_combined\_xxx.tif"
 Raster layers (Behrmann equal-area projection at
 1km<sup>2</sup> resolution) for each of the 18 species showing
 the predicted probability of occurrence under future 2070 climate
 conditions according to emissions scenario SSP126. These rasters are the
 consensus of the predictions from the three Global Circulation Models
 (GCMs; see manuscript) "suitability\_ssp585\_combined\_xxx.tif"
 Raster layers (Behrmann equal-area projection at
 1km<sup>2</sup> resolution) for each of the 18 species showing
 the predicted probability of occurrence under future 2070 climate
 conditions according to emissions scenario SSP585. These rasters are the
 consensus of the predictions from the three Global Circulation Models
 (GCMs; see manuscript) "ODMAP\_MathiasEtAl\_2023-06-30" ODMAP
 protocol providing details of the methods (following
 https://odmap.wsl.ch/) *** Occurrence records for Nothofagus species from
 the Atlas of Living Australia (ALA) can be accessed using the following
 DOIs: * *Nothofagus* *cliffortioides*:
 https://doi.ala.org.au/doi/7b7f9252-c2b8-4c85-9673-338e5e92621c *
 *Nothofagus* *menziesii*:
 https://doi.ala.org.au/doi/f81a799e-a9e0-424b-9a8e-c0e23489a8e1 *
 *Nothofagus* *solandri*:
 https://doi.ala.org.au/doi/7352a927-621e-4bdb-8f2b-988940a9a2f2 *
 *Nothofagus* *fusca*:
 https://doi.ala.org.au/doi/2a456509-5169-4c2d-b609-561986dcabdd *
 *Nothofagus* *truncata*:
 https://doi.ala.org.au/doi/6c009594-7830-4e59-bedd-b2caeabafe2d Occurrence
 records of the 13 conifer species and the target background points used in
 the conifer SDMs were downloaded from GBIF, and can be accessed using the
 following DOIs: * *Larix* *decidua* https://doi.org/10.15468/dl.uekeuj *
 *Pinus* *contorta* https://doi.org/10.15468/dl.pb9nyy * *Pinus*
 *monticola* https://doi.org/10.15468/dl.xvqnth * *Pinus* *mugo*
 https://doi.org/10.15468/dl.7gem9e * *Pinus* *muricata*
 https://doi.org/10.15468/dl.3y7qpj * *Pinus* *nigra*
 https://doi.org/10.15468/dl.76hnbs * *Pinus* *patula*
 https://doi.org/10.15468/dl.5fj35y * *Pinus* *pinaster*
 https://doi.org/10.15468/dl.v7s6pg * *Pinus* *ponderosa*
 https://doi.org/10.15468/dl.3yv7cj * *Pinus* *radiata*
 https://doi.org/10.15468/dl.wase7q * *Pinus* *sylvestris*
 https://doi.org/10.15468/dl.pt9jsg * *Pinus* *uncinata*
 https://doi.org/10.15468/dl.qk96d5 * *Pseudotsuga* *menziesii*
 https://doi.org/10.15468/dl.8h73g9 * All Pinales
 https://doi.org/10.15468/dl.nka47f