DOI: 10.5061/dryad.x95x69ptn
title: Data from: US-Mexico second-hand electric vehicle trade: Battery circularity and end-of-life policy implications

description: Second-Hand (SH) vehicle imports from the US comprise nearly 30 percent of
 Mexico’s light-duty vehicles. As US electric vehicle (EV) adoption
 progresses, SH EVs will increasingly enter Mexico. SH EVs could
 speed vehicle electrification, but also present environmental and economic
 risks because they are larger and reach retirement faster than new EVs.
 Understanding future flows of used and new EVs into Mexico’s fleet, and
 their expected retirement, is needed to understand if SH EVs provide a net
 benefit. This research uses system dynamics modeling to project future EV
 adoption and SH vehicle trade between the US and Mexico. Results show EVs
 will comprise nearly 50% of Mexico’s fleet and up to 99% of SH imports by
 2050, and SH EV batteries disproportionately contribute to the stock of
 spent EV batteries. Policies to ensure SH vehicle trade provides net
 benefits for the region include import and export battery state-of-health
 restrictions.
description: The multiple background datasets used in the study were collected
 from official sources in both the United States and Mexico. For Mexico,
 data on second-hand (SH) vehicle imports was obtained from the National
 Customs Agency (ANAM), and historical vehicle fleet and sales data were
 sourced from the National Institute for Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
 For the U.S., vehicle sales projections were based on the U.S. Energy
 Information Administration’s (EIA) forecasts, with additional adjustments
 made to align with government policy goals, such as the White House’s
 target for EV adoption. These datasets were integrated
 into a multi-region stock turnover model, and further refined using
 optimization techniques to align the model's outputs with historical
 records. Then, the model incorporated battery characterization data from
 BatPaC v5.0 (Argonne National Laboratory) to estimate the recoverable
 amounts of various materials per battery pack type at their end-of-life,
 including lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese, aluminum, copper, and steel.
 The aim was to estimate the battery mass of critical battery materials
 associated with used EV exports.
description: # Data from: US-Mexico second-hand electric vehicle trade: Battery
 circularity and end-of-life policy implications
 [https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.x95x69ptn](https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.x95x69ptn) ## Description of the data and file structure The data collected, including battery characterization and vehicle-related information, was used in modeling efforts to assess the future impact of second-hand electric vehicle (SH EV) trade between the U.S. and Mexico. The study focused on projecting Mexico's vehicle stock turnover, estimating the recovery of valuable materials from end-of-life EV batteries, and analyzing the environmental and economic implications of increased SH EV imports. These projections also considered the policy changes required to support the growing EV market, particularly in terms of recycling capabilities and regulatory frameworks. The overall goal was to provide a comprehensive understanding of how SH EV trade would influence regional environmental outcomes and economic opportunities. ### Files and variables #### File: 1-s2.0-S1361920923003310-mmc1.xlsx **Glossary:** *New ICE: A new ICE vehicle purchased in Mexico, *New EV: A New EV purchased in Mexico *SH ICE: Second-Hand ICE vehicle Exported to Mexico *SH EV: Second-Hand EV Exported to Mexico *LDV: Light duty vehicle **NOTES:** 1. In the last sheet of the dataset, referring to **Battery mass and recoverable critical materials from deregistered batteries,** the symbol "-" appears in a few instances as a substitute for a value of "0". 2. The color coding of the tables provided in the last sheet of the dataset corresponds to the origin of EVs becoming deregistered in Mexico. Orange corresponds to New EVs sold in Mexico and the associated material breakdown of their batteries. Blue corresponds to Second-Hand EVs Exported from the US to Mexico and the associated material breakdown of their batteries. Green corresponds to the sum of both New EVs sold in Mexico and Second-Hand EVs Exported from the US to Mexico and the associated material breakdown of their cumulative batteries. **1.Yearly Registrations and Deregistrations:** This datasheet presents the historical and forecasted registrations and deregistrations of LDVs in Mexico from 2005 to 2050. Registrations an deregistrations are further categorized by propulsion technology and origin, as indicated in the table headers below. The datasheet illustrates the shift in technological demand considering Federal EV adoption targets. | | Registrations (Million) | | | | De-registrations (Million) | | | | | :--- | :---------------------- | :----- | :----- | :---- | :------------------------- | :----- | :----- | :---- | | Year | New ICE | New EV | SH ICE | SH EV | New ICE | New EV | SH ICE | SH EV | **2.Fleet Evolution:** This datasheet presents the historical and forecasted evolution of the LDV fleet in Mexico from 2005 to 2050. The in-use fleet and the concurrent stock of de-registered vehicles are further categorized by propulsion technology and origin, as indicated in the table headers below. The datasheet illustrates the shift in the technological and origin composition of the country's LDV fleet, resulting from the increased demand for domestic and imported EVs. | | In-Use Fleet (Million) | | | | De-registered Stock (Million) | | | | | :--- | :--------------------- | :----- | :----- | :---- | :---------------------------- | :----- | :----- | :---- | | Year | New ICE | New EV | SH ICE | SH EV | New ICE | New EV | SH ICE | SH EV | **3.Fleet Age:** This datasheet presents the estimated composition of the in-use light-duty vehicle fleet in Mexico for the years 2022 (left) and 2050 (right). The composition is categorized by vehicle age, propulsion technology, and origin, as indicated in the table headers below. The datasheet illustrates how the composition of the vehicle fleet in Mexico is expected to evolve from 2022 to 2050, highlighting the potential increase in electric vehicles and changes in the proportion of new and second-hand imports. | | Fleet Technology and Origin Breakdown, 2022 (Million) | | | | Fleet Technology and Origin Breakdown, 2050 (Million) | | | | | :-- | :---------------------------------------------------- | :----- | ------ | ----- | ----------------------------------------------------- | ------ | ------ | ----- | | AGE | New ICE | New EV | SH ICE | SH EV | New ICE | New EV | SH ICE | SH EV | **4.Battery mass and recoverable critical materials from deregistered batteries:** This datasheet presents the cumulative battery mass and critical materials from retiring domestic and SH EVs available in the country between 2010 and 2050. The cumulative battery mass is calculated based on historical and forecasted battery chemistries and sizes, categorized by recoverable critical materials (Li, Ni, Co, Mn, Al, Steel) and the origin of the vehicles (domestic or SH). The datasheet highlights the potential for rapid accumulation of valuable recyclable materials driven by the projected increase in EV demand, while also emphasizing the environmental burdens that could arise if these materials are not properly recovered. | | New Sales (Million) | SH Imports (Million) | TOTAL BATTERY MASS (Tons) | TOTALS OF RECOVERABLE MATERIALS (Tons) | | | | | | | | | :--- | :------------------ | :------------------- | :------------------------ | :------------------------------------- | :- | :- | :- | :- | :- | :---- | :-------------- | | Year | | | | Li | Ni | Co | Mn | Al | Cu | Steel | Stainless Steel | ## Code/software The data is presented in an Excel spreadsheet in an .xlsx format. ## Access information Other publicly accessible locations of the data: * [https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1361920923003310](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1361920923003310)