DOI: 10.5061/dryad.cnp5hqcjb
title: Kinematic and dynamic modeling of lithosphere deformation: Tools and results

description: This archive includes modeling tools (F-E source codes, F-E grid editor,
 mapping utilities, model scoring programs) for study of lithospheric
 deformation, either in the geologic past or in the present. 
 Kinematic modeling codes include NeoKinema, which uses fault traces, GPS
 velocities, and stress directions to model neotectonic deformation and
 produce maps of forecast seismicity. Dynamic modeling codes include
 Shells, which predicts plate motion, strain rates, fault slip rates and
 stresses from stress-equilibrium and laboratory flow laws, allowing
 estimate of torques exerted on each plate by the rest of the mantle. Each
 code is accompanied by input and output files from at least one published
 study.  Many associated utilities for tasks such as digitizing
 fault traces, reframing GPS velocities, and estimating the covariance
 matrices of GPS datasets round out an integrated package. No commercial
 software is required (although Adobe Illustrator is convenient for
 visualizing and editing maps). Additional software in this archive allows
 reproduction of the global shallow seismicity models SHIFT_GSRM and GEAR1
 (previously published separately).
description: # README, in 4 parts: * Part 1: Introduction * Part 2: Guide to Folders by
 Scientific Objective * Part 3: File List, with function and variables
 identified * Part 4: References Cited # README Part 1: Introduction The
 compressed archive Bird_archive_for_Dryad.zip contains 33 top-level
 folders. When uncompressed, it will expand into 1,465 total files, and its
 size will be approximately 900 MB. This archive includes modeling tools
 (F-E source codes, F-E grid editor, mapping utilities, model-scoring
 programs) for study of lithospheric deformation, either in the geologic
 past or in the present.\ Kinematic modeling codes include NeoKinema, which
 uses fault traces, GPS velocities, and stress directions to model
 neotectonic deformation and produce maps of forecast seismicity.\ Dynamic
 modeling codes include Shells, which predicts plate motion, strain rates,
 fault slip rates and stresses from stress-equilibrium and laboratory flow
 laws, allowing estimate of torques exerted on each plate by the rest of
 the mantle.\ Each code is accompanied by input and output files from at
 least one published study.\ Many associated utilities for tasks such as
 digitizing fault traces, reframing GPS velocities, and estimating the
 covariance matrices of GPS datasets round out an integrated package.\ No
 commercial software is required (although Adobe Illustrator is convenient
 for visualizing and editing maps).\ Additional software in this archive
 allows reproduction of the global shallow seismicity models SHIFT_GSRM and
 SHIFT_GSRM2 and GEAR1 (previously published separately). All programs are
 provided both as source code (mostly in Fortran 90, .f90) and as
 executables compiled for Windows (both 32-bit and 64-bit versions
 provided; some programs have parallel versions).\ Some F-E codes make use
 of Intel's Math Kernel Library for solution of large linear systems;
 free versions of MKL are available for compilations under Linux, and
 perhaps elsewhere. Virtually all data files included can be mapped with
 one of the included mapping utility programs: FiniteMap (for dynamic F-E
 programs like Shells), or NeoKineMap (for kinematic F-E program
 NeoKinema), or RetroMap (for paleogeologic reconstructions created with
 kinematic F-E code Restore).\ Maps produced by these 3 programs can be
 opened in Adobe Illustrator (v.7+) and possibly in alternative (shareware)
 object-oriented graphics packages such as Inkscape. Almost all variables
 in data files are in SI metric units. The main exception is that GPS
 velocities and fault offset rates are in millimeters/year (mm/a). Azimuths
 are in degrees clockwise from geographic North. Locations (longitude,
 latitude) are expressed in decimal degrees, with East and North considered
 positive. # README Part 2: Guide to Folders by Scientific Objective ``` I.
 MOTION & DEFORMATION OF TECTONIC PLATES OF LITHOSPHERE A. KINEMATIC
 MODELS (accurate velocities, but little-or-no physics) 1. Neotectonic
 models (present and/or Quaternary) (i) Rigid-plate models Euler's-law
 utility: OMEGAxR Plate model PB2002: PB2002 (ii) Deforming-orogen models:
 Analyze geologic slip-rate data: Slippery Change reference-frame of GPS
 data: ReframeGPS Uncertainties in geodetic data: GPS_covariance Fit
 velocity field to data: NeoKinema Analyze GPS residuals unfit by
 NeoKinema: GPS_Postprocessor 2. Paleotectonic models (pre-Quaternary) (i)
 History of stress azimuths in N. America: paleostress (ii) Palinspastic
 restoration sequences: Restore B. DYNAMIC MODELS (sound physics, but less
 accurate velocities) 1. Neotectonic models: Digitise (map lines --&gt;
 .DIG files) neotec/DrawGrid (old .FEG editor in {x, y}) neotec/FAULTS (F-E
 model; older than SHELLS) neotec/PLATES (F-E model; older than SHELLS)
 neotec/SHELLS (preferred dynamic F-E model) 2. Paleotectonic models:
 paleotec (models of KT history of the WUS) C. FINITE-ELEMENT GRID EDITOR:
 OrbWin (2-D spherical coordinates) D. GRAPHICAL (MAP-MAKING) SOFTWARE 1.
 Digitizing published faults, etc: Digitise (map lines --&gt; .DIG files)
 2. Interactive map-makers: FiniteMap {for Shells, ...} NeoKineMap {for
 NeoKinema} Restore/RetroMap4 {for Restore} 3. Fortran90 mapping MODULEs to
 use in your own codes: MapTools II. FORECASTS OF SHALLOW SEISMICITY: A.
 Catalog-searching utility; creates .EQC files: Seismicity B. Calibration
 of plate-boundary seismicity: 2003107-esupp C. Global forecasts of
 long-term seismicity: SHIFT_GSRM_forecast (old) SHIFT_GSRM2_forecast
 (newer) GEAR1_forecast (newest) XML_2_GRD (utility program)
 Extract_Regional_GRD (utility) SeismicityGRD_2_EQC (simulator) D.
 NeoKinema-based forecasts of long-term seismicity: Long_Term_Seismicity E.
 Information-scoring of forecasts: Kagan_2009_GJI_I_scores F. Alternative
 scoring of forecasts: PseudoCSEP III. STRESS TENSORS IN THE LITHOSPHERE:
 SCEC_Community_Stress_Model IV. PARALLEL COMPUTING:
 REQUIRED_libiomp5md.dll_file ``` # README Part 3: File List, with function
 and variables identified **index.htm**\ Each folder of this archive
 (including the root) includes a file named **index.htm**, and these are
 linked together using HTML.\ This makes it possible to browse the archive
 using a web-browser program, even if the whole archive now sits on your
 own computer.\ Three possible advantages: (1) some index files include a
 bibliographic citation of a published paper that used the files in that
 folder; (2) in many index.htm files the default alphabetical order of
 files is transformed to a more meaningful sequence approximating workflow;
 and (3) a few of my .HTM files provide "far leaps" to distant
 parts of the archive tree when they are relevant. A possible DISadvantage
 is: (4) when you click on an executable file, it may be copied to your
 computer's Download folder, instead of running. So, use of these
 index.htm files is OPTIONAL. **Second filename-extensions of .BIN or
 .TXT**\ This archive originated under a file-server architecture at my
 personal web site. In recent years, many operating systems (concerned
 about possible malware) have refused to download executable files (.EXE).
 For this reason, some of my executables have been given a second
 filename-extension of .BIN (e.g., Program.exe.bin). Also, many operating
 systems refuse to download files with unknown filename-extensions, such as
 my .DIG, .GRD, .GPS, and .EQC (explained in the folder below). For this
 reason, most of my data files have a second filename-extension of .TXT
 (e.g., data.grd.txt) to make them portable. Before you begin to use these
 files, any second filename-extension should be removed by renaming the
 file(s). Soon after that, your operating system may ask you to choose an
 associated app for opening them. For data files, I recommend a simple
 ASCII file editor that displays the contents with a monospaced font;
 personally, I like EditPad. **000_FILE_FORMATS**\
 000_FILE_FORMATS/**index.htm**\ Conceptual guide to 5 data file formats
 used in this archive.\ 000_FILE_FORMATS/**dig_format.htm**\ Definition of
 the .DIG (DIGitized points) format for points and/or polylines in either
 (x, y) or (longitude, latitude) coordinates.\
 000_FILE_FORMATS/**grd_format.htm**\ Definition of the .GRD (GRiDded data)
 format for scalar data (e.g., elevation) at evenly-spaced points in either
 (x, y) or (longitude, latitude).\ 000_FILE_FORMATS/**eqc_format.pdf**\
 Definition of the .EQC (EarthQuake Catalog) file format, with one
 earthquake per line.\ 000_FILE_FORMATS/**gps_format.htm**\ Definition of
 the .GPS (Global Positioning System) format, giving positions and
 horizontal velocities (with uncertainties) at benchmarks; one benchmark
 per line.\ 000_FILE_FORMATS/**gp2_format.htm**\ Definition of the .GP2
 format for a large covariance matrix giving relations between both
 components of GPS velocity at any number of benchmarks. **2003107-esupp**\
 This is the digital supplement to Bird & Kagan [2004], a global study
 of the seismicity (earthquake production) of 7 different kinds of plate
 boundaries. The plate boundary model was PB2002 (see folder below). An
 objective, probabilistic algorithm was used to assign ~95% of large
 shallow earthquakes to the plate boundary segments that caused them. Then
 the earthquakes associated with each type of plate boundary were collected
 into subcatalogs, which were analyzed for their tapered Gutenberg-Richter
 frequency/moment distributions. Results included corner magnitudes and
 coupling coefficients for each type of plate boundary; these were
 essential inputs to the research presented in folders
 Long_Term_Seismicity, SHIFT_GSRM_forecast, SHIFT_GSRM_forecast, and
 GEAR1_forecast below.\ 2003107-esupp/**GUIDED_TOUR.htm** Start of a set of
 linked HTML pages that guide readers through the contents of this folder.
 2003107-esupp/**Maximum-probability_or_Monte-Carlo.htm** Brief
 introduction to the 2 main methods of assigning shallow earthquakes to
 plate-boundary segments.\ 2003107-esupp/**2003107_esupp.zip**\ Compressed
 set of essential files from this folder.
 2003107-esupp/**abbreviations.htm** List of all abbreviations used in
 filenames in this folder.\ 2003107-esupp/**EQ_classification_II.f90.txt**
 Fortran 90 source code for program EQ_classifiction_II, which assigns
 large shallow earthquakes to the plate-boundary segments that caused them.
 2003107-esupp/**Quaternion.f90.txt** Fortran 90 source code for a
 tensor-rotation algorithm; needed to compile program EQ_classification_II.
 2003107-esupp/**Sphere.f90.txt** Fortran 90 source code for geometric
 operations on the surface of a sphere; needed to compile program
 EQ_classification_II. 2003107-esupp/**BetaCorner.f90.txt** Fortran 90
 source code for program BetaCorner, which computes and plots parameters of
 the maximum-likelihood tapered Gutenberg-Richter frequency/moment model
 for any subcatalog. 2003107-esupp/**Adobe_Illustrator.f90.txt** A module
 of Fortran 90 source code to allow production of output graphics; needed
 to compile program BetaCorner. 2003107-esupp/**AI7frame.ai** A template
 Adobe Illustrator output file, needed to run program BetaCorner.
 2003107-esupp/**maximum-probablility** Contains the results of assigning
 earthquakes to plate boundary segments based on which segment had the
 highest probability of causing that earthquake.
 2003107-esupp/maximum-probability/**MP_CMT_files** Contains 12 images of
 graphs of earthquake count vs. magnitude, for different kinds of plate
 boundaries, along with the best-fit tapered Gutenberg-Richter
 distribution.\ In this folder the earthquakes considered are those of m
 &gt;= 5.00 recorded by the CMT (Centroid Moment Tensor) catalog,
 1977-2002. 2003107-esupp/maximum-probability/**MP_merged_files** Contains
 6 images of graphs of earthquake count vs. magnitude, for different kinds
 of plate boundaries, along with the best-fit tapered Gutenberg-Richter
 distribution.\ In this folder the earthquakes from CMT (Centroid Moment
 Tensor) catalog, 1977-2002 are supplemented by some very large earthquakes
 from earlier catalogs (see maximum-probability.html).
 2003107-esupp/maximum-probability/**CMT_PB2002_CCB_pure.eqc**\ Subcatalog
 of earthquakes in .EQC format (see OO_FILE_FORMATS above) for CCB =
 Continental Collision Boundary segments. "Pure" means segments
 not located in any orogen of PB2002.\
 2003107-esupp/maximum-probability/**CMT_PB2002_CRB_pure.eqc**\ Subcatalog
 of earthquakes for CRB = Continental Rift Boundary segments.
 2003107-esupp/maximum-probability/**CMT_PB2002_CTF_pure.eqc**\ Subcatalog
 of earthquakes for CTF = Continental Transform Fault segments.
 2003107-esupp/maximum-probability/**CMT_PB2002_INT_pure.eqc**\ Subcatalog
 of earthquakes for INT = Intraplate regions.
 2003107-esupp/maximum-probability/**CMT_PB2002_OCB_pure.eqc**\ Subcatalog
 of earthquakes for OCB = Oceanic Convergent Boundary segments.
 2003107-esupp/maximum-probability/**CMT_PB2002_OSR_pure.eqc**\ Subcatalog
 of earthquakes for OSR = Oceanic Spreading Ridge segments.
 2003107-esupp/maximum-probability/**CMT_PB2002_OSR_pure_normal.eqc**\
 Subcatalog of earthquakes for OSR = Oceanic Spreading Ridge segments, but
 limited to earthquakes with normal-faulting mechanisms.
 2003107-esupp/maximum-probability/**CMT_PB2002_OSR_pure_other.eqc**\
 Subcatalog of earthquakes for OSR = Oceanic Spreading Ridge segments, but
 limited to earthquakes with mechanisms that were NOT normal-faulting.
 2003107-esupp/maximum-probability/**CMT_PB2002_OTF_pure.eqc**\ Subcatalog
 of earthquakes for OTF = Oceanic Transform Fault segments.
 2003107-esupp/maximum-probability/**CMT_PB2002_OTF_pure_3-39mmpa.eqc**\
 Subcatalog of earthquakes for OTF = Oceanic Transform Fault segments, but
 limited to OTFs with slip rates of 3 to 39 mm/a.
 2003107-esupp/maximum-probability/**CMT_PB2002_OTF_pure_40-68mmpa.eqc**\
 Subcatalog of earthquakes for OTF = Oceanic Transform Fault segments, but
 limited to OTFs with slip rates of 40 to 68 mm/a.
 2003107-esupp/maximum-probability/**CMT_PB2002_OTF_pure_69-263mmpa.eqc**\
 Subcatalog of earthquakes for OTF = Oceanic Transform Fault segments, but
 limited to OTFs with slip rates of 69 to 263 mm/a.
 2003107-esupp/maximum-probability/**CMT_PB2002_SUB_pure.eqc**\ Subcatalog
 of earthquakes for SUB = SUBduction-zone segments.
 2003107-esupp/maximum-probability/**maximum-probability.html** A one-page
 definition of how "CMT" subcatalogs differ from
 "merged" catalogs.\
 2003107-esupp/maximum-probability/**merged_PB2002_CCB_all.eqc**
 "Merged" (see file above) subcatalog of CCB = Continental
 Collision Boundary segments. "All" means that orogens of the
 PB2002 model were included (unlike "pure").
 2003107-esupp/maximum-probability/**merged_PB2002_CRB_all.eqc** Merged
 subcatalog of CRB = Continental Rift Boundary segments, including those in
 orogens. 2003107-esupp/maximum-probability/**merged_PB2002_CTF_all.eqc**
 Merged subcatalog of CTF = Continental Tranform Fault segments, including
 those in orogens.
 2003107-esupp/maximum-probability/**merged_PB2002_OCB_all.eqc** Merged
 subcatalog of OCB = Oceanic Convergent Boundary segments, including those
 in orogens.
 2003107-esupp/maximum-probability/**merged_PB2002_OTF_all_3-39mmpa.eqc**
 Merged subcatalog of OTF = Oceanic Transform Fault segments, including
 those in orogens, but limited to those with slip rates of 3 to 39 mm/a.
 2003107-esupp/maximum-probability/**merged_PB2002_SUB_all.eqc** Merged
 subcatalog of SUB = SUBduction-zone segments, including those in orogens.
 2003107-esupp/maximum-probability/**MP_CMT.htm** One long page containing
 all the frequency-magnitude graphs for maximum-probability subdivisions of
 the CMT catalog. 2003107-esupp/maximum-probability/**MP_merged.htm** One
 long page containing all the frequency-magnitude graphs for
 maximum-probability subdivisions of the merged catalog.
 2003107-esupp/**Monte-Carlo** Contains the results of assigning
 earthquakes to plate boundary segments based on a probability-weighted
 Monte-Carlo algorithm. 2003107-esupp/Monte-Carlo/**MC_5sets.htm** Brief
 introduction to the 5 Monte-Carlo earthquake-assignment experiments. Each
 experiment used a different seed for the random-number generator.\
 2003107-esupp/Monte-Carlo/**PB2002_MC1** Folder containing results of the
 1st Monte-Carlo earthquake-assignment experiment.
 2003107-esupp/Monte-Carlo/PB2002_MC1/**MC1.htm**\ HTML page linking to all
 results of this Monte-Carlo simulation experiment.\
 2003107-esupp/Monte-Carlo/PB2002_MC1/**CMTm7_PB2002_MC1_EQ_classification.txt** Text output from run of EQ_classification_II applied to CMT earthquakes with magnitude &gt;= 7.\ 2003107-esupp/Monte-Carlo/PB2002_MC1/**Pacheco_PB2002_MC1_EQ_classification.txt** Text output from run of EQ_classification_II applied to the large-earthquake catalog of Pacheco & Sykes [1992].\ 2003107-esupp/Monte-Carlo/PB2002_MC1/**tGR_parameters-MC1.pdf** Table showing maximum-likelihood estimates of tapered Gutenberg-Richter frequency/moment relations, summarizing many runs of BetaCorner.\ 2003107-esupp/Monte-Carlo/PB2002_MC1/**PB2002_CCB**\ 8 variant subcatalogs of earthquakes in .EQC format (see OO_FILE_FORMATS above) for CCB = Continental Collision Boundary segments.\ 2003107-esupp/Monte-Carlo/PB2002_MC1/PB2002_CCB/**MC1_CCB.htm**\ Table leading to analyses of 8 variants of the earthquake catalog: pure vs. all; CMT m&gt;=5 vs. CMT m&gt;= 7 vs. Pacheco & Sykes [1992] vs. merged.\ 2003107-esupp/Monte-Carlo/PB2002_MC1/**PB2002_CRB**\ 8 variant subcatalogs of earthquakes for CRB = Continental Rift Boundary segments. See file descriptions under subfolder PB2002_CCB above.\ 2003107-esupp/Monte-Carlo/PB2002_MC1/**PB2002_CTF**\ 8 variant subcatalogs of earthquakes for CTF = Continental Transform Fault segments. See file descriptions under subfolder PB2002_CCB above.\ 2003107-esupp/Monte-Carlo/PB2002_MC1/**PB2002_CTF**\ 8 variant subcatalogs of earthquakes for CTF = Continental Transform Fault segments. See file descriptions under subfolder PB2002_CCB above.\ 2003107-esupp/Monte-Carlo/PB2002_MC1/**PB2002_OCB**\ 8 variant subcatalogs of earthquakes for OCB = Oceanic Convergent Boundary segments. See file descriptions under subfolder PB2002_CCB above.\ 2003107-esupp/Monte-Carlo/PB2002_MC1/**PB2002_OSR**\ 8 variant subcatalogs of earthquakes for OSR = Oceanic Spreading Ridge segments. See file descriptions under subfolder PB2002_CCB above.\ 2003107-esupp/Monte-Carlo/PB2002_MC1/**PB2002_OTF**\ 8 variant subcatalogs of earthquakes for OTF = Oceanic Transform Fault segments. See file descriptions under subfolder PB2002_CCB above.\ 2003107-esupp/Monte-Carlo/PB2002_MC1/**PB2002_SUB**\ 8 variant subcatalogs of earthquakes for SUB = SUBduction-zone segments. See file descriptions under subfolder PB2002_CCB above.\ 2003107-esupp/Monte-Carlo/**PB2002_MC2** Folder containing results of the 2nd Monte-Carlo earthquake-assignment experiment. See subfolder PB2002_MC1 above for description of subfolders & files in this folder. 2003107-esupp/Monte-Carlo/**PB2002_MC3** Folder containing results of the 3rd Monte-Carlo earthquake-assignment experiment. See subfolder PB2002_MC1 above for description of subfolders & files in this folder. 2003107-esupp/Monte-Carlo/**PB2002_MC4** Folder containing results of the 4th Monte-Carlo earthquake-assignment experiment. See subfolder PB2002_MC1 above for description of subfolders & files in this folder. 2003107-esupp/Monte-Carlo/**PB2002_MC5** Folder containing results of the 5th Monte-Carlo earthquake-assignment experiment. See subfolder PB2002_MC1 above for description of subfolders & files in this folder. **Digitise**\ Digitising fault traces is an early step in almost every workflow covered by this archive. By "digitising" I mean taping a geologic map to a large-format digitizing tablet (e.g., CalComp) and running its cursor along traces of important faults, while an attached computer records the sequence of Cartesian (x, y) values transmitted from the tablet, and saves them in a file. Now, the 2 potential recording apps that I describe here (my own DIGITISE.exe, or Didger5 from Golden Software) may not work for everyone. Perhaps some will have to rent GIS software from a company like ESRI, and obtain their fault traces as ESRI ShapeFiles. If so, note that I provide an app for converting ShapeFiles to (and from) my .DIG format (described in folder 00_FILE_FORMATS above), and several useful utility apps for correcting .DIG files, and for converting them to (longitude, latitude) coordinates. Digitise/**DIGITISE.exe**\ Executable (for DOS or DOS-emulators, such as WindowsXP; requires serial port) to receive data in (x, y) coordinate pairs from a digitizing tablet.\ Digitise/**Digitizing_tips_2019.pdf**\ Guidance on using commercial software (Golden Software's "Didger5" app, "TabletWorks" driver for Windows10, Windows10 O/S, USB port) as an alternative to use of DIGITISE.exe.\ Digitise/**Graticule.exe**\ Windows executable of program Graticule, which draws parallels of latitude and meridians of longitude, in .DIG file format.\ Digitise/**OUTDATED_read_me.6.txt**\ Guidance on use of DIGITISE.exe in a computer running DOS, or in a DOS-emulator environment, and receiving data through a serial port.\ Digitise/**Projector-Win32seq.exe**\ 32-bit Windows executable of program Projector, which converts data in .DIG format between (x, y) and spherical (longitude, latitude) coordinate systems.\ Digitise/**Projector-Win64seq.exe**\ 64-bit Windows executable of program Projector, which converts data in .DIG format between (x, y) and spherical (longitude, latitude) coordinate systems.\ Digitise/**ReverseDIG-Win32seq.exe**\ 32-bit Windows executable of program ReverseDIG, which operates on selected polylines in a .DIG file to reverse their directions.\ Digitise/**ReverseDIG-Win64seq.exe**\ 64-bit Windows executable of program ReverseDIG, which operates on selected polylines in a .DIG file to reverse their directions.\ Digitise/**Scale_DIG-Win32seq.exe**\ 32-bit Windows executable of program Scale_DIG, which applies a linear transformation (scale-factors, and/or constant offsets) to data in a .DIG file.\ Digitise/**Scale_DIG-Win64seq.exe**\ 64-bit Windows executable of program Scale_DIG, which applies a linear transformation (scale-factors, and/or constant offsets) to data in a .DIG file.\ Digitise/**SHP_toFrom_xyDIG-Win32seq.exe**\ 32-bit Windows executable of program SHP_toFrom_xyDIG, which converts data between ESRI shapefile format and .DIG format; in this case, both formats give Cartesian (x, y) positions.\ Digitise/**SHP_toFrom_xyDIG-Win64seq.exe**\ 64-bit Windows executable of program SHP_toFrom_xyDIG, which converts data between ESRI shapefile format and .DIG format; in this case, both formats give Cartesian (x, y) positions.\ Digitise/**SubDigitise-Win32seq.exe**\ 32-bit Windows executable of program SubDigitise, which operates on polylines in a .DIG file and adds internal points along each polyline segment by interpolation (either Cartesian or spherical).\ Digitise/**SubDigitise-Win64seq.exe**\ 64-bit Windows executable of program SubDigitise, which operates on polylines in a .DIG file and adds internal points along each polyline segment by interpolation (either Cartesian or spherical).\ Digitise/**source**/**DIGITISE.BAS**\ Microsoft QuickBasic source code for executable DIGITISE.EXE which receives (x, y) data from a digitizer, through a serial port.\ Digitise/source/**digit2.bas**\ Additional (necessary) Microsoft QuickBasic source code for executable DIGITISE.EXE which receives (x, y) data from a digitizer, through a serial port.\ Digitise/source/**Graticule.for.txt**\ Fortran 66 source code for program Graticule, which draws parallels of latitude and meridians of longitude, in .DIG file format.\ Digitise/source/**Projector.f90.txt**\ Fortran 90 source code for program Projector, which converts data in .DIG format between (x, y) and spherical (longitude, latitude) coordinate systems.\ Digitise/source/**ReverseDIG.f90.txt**\ Fortran 90 source code for program ReverseDIG, which operates on selected polylines in a .DIG file to reverse their directions.\ Digitise/source/**Scale_DIG.f90.txt**\ Fortran 90 source code for program Scale_DIG, which applies a linear transformation (scale-factors, and/or constant offsets) to data in a .DIG file.\ Digitise/source/**SHP_toFrom_xyDIG.f90.txt**\ Fortran 90 source code for program SHP_toFrom_xyDIG, which converts data between ESRI shapefile format and .DIG format; in this case, both formats give Cartesian (x, y) positions.\ Digitise/source/**SubDigitise.f90.txt**\ Fortran 90 source code for program SubDigitise, which operates on polylines in a .DIG file and adds internal points along each polyline segment by interpolation (either Cartesian or spherical).\ Digitize/**work**/**bscoastx.dig.txt**\ Sample .DIG file of coastlines in the Bering Sea region, using (x, y) coordinates in a conic-projection map plane described in Bird [1996].\ Digitise/work/**calxy.dig.txt**\ Sample .DIG file of coastlines in the California region, using (x, y) coordinates in a polyconic-projection map plane described in Bird & Kong [1994].\ Digitise/work/**line_m2.mod.txt**\ Sample MODE (.mod) parameter file output from DIGITISE.EXE when the digitizing tablet is set to output "curving" lines with many points/inch. May be reloaded into DIGITISE.exe as an initiation file.\ Digitise/work/**point_m1.mod.txt**\ Sample MODE (.mod) parameter file output from DIGITISE.EXE when the digitizing tablet is set to output points only when the cursor is pressed. May be reloaded in DIGITISE.exe as an initiation file. **Dislocations**\ Fortran 90 source code for subprograms that compute permanent surface displacement ("lurch") caused by slip on a buried dislocation surface (i.e., and earthquake).\ The programs here are flat-Earth codes in Cartesian (x, y, z) coordinates; but see folder Spherical_Lurch for one version that accepts spherical (longitude, latitude) inputs.\ Also note that these routines can be used to compute surface displacement rates caused by steady slip rates on displacement patches.\ Dislocations/**Dislocation.f90.txt**\ Code for computing displacements due to slip on rectangular dislocation patches, based on formulas of Mansinha & Smylie [1967, 1971].\ Dislocations/**DDislocations.f90.txt** Almost identical to Dislocations.f90 above, except that all real numbers are represented as REAL*8 for greater precision. This version is better.\ Dislocations/**DTriangular.f90.txt** Code for computing displacements due to slip on triangular dislocation patches. Uses REAL*8 for high precision. Based on a MATLAB program by Nikkhoo & Walter [2015, Geophys. J. Int.]. **Extract_Regional_GRD**\ A utility program to extract a rectangular subset of a larger .GRD gridded-data file (see 00_FILE_FORMATS). Works on grids in either Cartesian or spherical coordinates.\ Extract_Regional_GRD/**Extract_Regional_GRD.f90.txt**\ Fortran 90 source code for this utility program.\ Extract_Regional_GRD/**Extract_Regional_GRD-Win32seq.exe.bin** and **Extract_Regional_GRD-Win64seq.exe.bin**\ Executables of this utility for 32-bit Windows and 64-bit Windows, respectively. **Fault_Corridors**\ Utility program to begin the process of adding "fault corridors" (belts of narrow finite elements) along digitized traces of active faults.\ In combination with OrbWin, this helps to create .FEG files for use in NeoKinema and in Restore.\ Fault_Corridors/**Fault_Corridors.f90.txt**\ Fortran 90 source code for this utility program.\ Fault_Corridors/**Fault_Corridors-Win32seq.exe.bin** and **Fault_Corridors-Win64seq.exe.bin**\ Executables of this utility for 32-bit Windows and 64-bit Windows, respectively. **FiniteMap**\ Graphics post-processor for use with F-E simulation program SHELLS. Under interactive control, reads certain input and/or output file(s) from a SHELLS model and creates a map in .AI (Adobe Illustrator) format.\ FiniteMap/**FiniteMap.f90.txt**\ Fortran 90 source code for this graphics program. Requires other files from folder Map_Tools to compile.\ FiniteMap/**FiniteMap-Win32seq.exe.bin** and **FiniteMap-Win64seq.exe.bin**\ Executables of this utility for 32-bit Windows and 64-bit Windows, respectively.\ FiniteMap/**FiniteMap_READ_ME.txt**\ A cautionary note: While FiniteMap may one day support FAULTS and PLATES as well as SHELLS, this version only supports SHELLS.\ FiniteMap/**AI4frame.ai** and **AI7frame.ai**\ Adobe Illustrator "template" files that will have content filled in by FiniteMap. One of these is required; AI7frame.ai is preferred. **GEAR1_forecast**\ A global long-term forecast of shallow seismicity. GEAR1 = Global Earthquake Activity Rate model, version 1. Published by Bird et al. [2015].\ Of the 3 global forecasts presented here (SHIFT_GSRM, SHIFT_GSRM2, and GEAR1), prospective testing [Bird, 2018] shows that GEAR1 is the best.\ GEAR1/**GEAR1_for_CSEP.f90.txt**\ Fortran 90 source code for a version of GEAR1 that outputs its model in the specific .XML format required by CSEP = Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability.\ GEAR1/**GEAR1_for_CSEP-Win64seq.exe.bin** and **GEAR1_for_CSEP-Win64par.exe.bin**\ Executables for 64-bit Windows (only). The "seq" (sequential) version is slower, and the "par" (parallel) version is faster, if your computer supports parallel processing.\ GEAR1/**each_WinNNpar.EXE_requires_one_DLL.txt**\ Text file explaining how to add the proper redistributable .DLL (Dynamic Link Library) file to your computer if you want to use parallel processing.\ GEAR1/**GEAR1_parameters.dat.txt**\ Short parameter file (required by CSEP) listing parameters, and their meanings, that control creation of any forecast.\ Note that changing the year(s) covered by the forecast will have NO EFFECT on results, since GEAR1 is a long-term (static) forecast.\ GEAR1/**how_to_build_the_GEAR1_XML_file.txt**\ Detailed instructions on how to reproduce the published GEAR1 forecast using files in this archive.\ GEAR1/**GL_HAZTBLT_M5_B2_2013.zip**\ Compressed (.ZIP) version of the GEAR1 forecast submitted to CSEP, using their required .XML format. See folder XML_2_GRD below for conversion to my .GRD format (see 00_FILE_FORMATS). **GPS_Covariance**\ Utility program to create (or augment) a covariance matrix for horizontal components of interseismic GPS velocities in .GP2 format (see 00_FILE_FORMATS).\ The value of this covariance matrix is explained in Bird & Carafa [2016] and Carafa & Bird [2016]; it gives better NeoKinema model results when the GPS data is noisy.\ An example of a .GP2 file can be seen in folder NeoKinema/orogens/Gorda-California-Nevada/. GPS_Covariance/**GPS_Covariance.f90.txt**\ Fortran 90 source code for this utility program.\ GPS_Covariance/**GPS_Covariance-Win32seq.exe** and **GPS_Covariance-Win64seq.exe**\ Executables of this utility for 32-bit Windows and 64-bit Windows, respectively. **GPS_Postprocessor**\ IFF you used GPS_Covariance (above) to improve the input data for a suite of NeoKinema models, THEN you can gain further insight by running GPS_Postprocessor after you settle on the preferred NeoKinema model.\ For every noise source (or reference-frame uncertainty) identified using GPS_Covariance, this utility will provide estimates of the size (and sign) of the noise, both in tables and in graphics.\ GPS_Postprocessor/**GPS_Postprocessor.f90.txt**\ Fortran 90 source code for this utility program (2020 version). Requires additional source code from folder Map_Tools to compile.\ GPS_Postprocessor/**GPS_Postprocessor2.f90.txt**\ Fortran 90 source code for this utility program (2023 version). Preferred. Requires additional source code from folder Map_Tools to compile.\ GPS_Postprocessor/**GPS_Postprocessor2-Win32seq.exe** and **GPS_Postprocessor2-Win64seq.exe**\ Executables of the preferred 2023 version of this utility, for 32-bit Windows and 64-bit Windows, respectively. **Kagan_2009_GJI_I_scores**\ Utility program for scoring the relative success of any earthquake forecast (in .GRD format) by comparing it to a catalog of later earthquakes (in .EQC format). Based on Kagan [2009].\ See also Bird [2018] for an example of its use, and a discussion of why this simple scoring is better than complex formulas used by others.\ Kagan_2009_GJI_I_scores/**Kagan_2009_GJI_I_scores.f90.txt**\ Fortran 90 source code for this utility program.\ Kagan_2009_GJI_I_scores/**Kagan_2009_GJI_I_scores-Win32seq.exe** and **Kagan_2009_GJI_I_scores-Win64seq.exe**\ Executables of this utility for 32-bit Windows and 64-bit Windows, respectively.\ Kagan_2009_GJI_I_scores/**underwater.grd.zip**\ Compressed (.zip) version of a .GRD file (see 00_FILE_FORMATS) containing 1's to indicate ocean and 0's to indicate land. May be used as a mask in Kagan_2009_GJI_I_scores.\ Resolution is 0.25 degrees in longitude and 0.20 degrees in latitude.\ Kagan_2009_GJI_I_scores/**underwater5.grd.zip**\ Compressed (.zip) version of a .GRD file (see 00_FILE_FORMATS) containing 1's to indicate ocean and 0's to indicate land. May be used as a mask in Kagan_2009_GJI_I_scores.\ Resolution is 5 minutes in longitude and 5 minutes in latitude. **Long_Term_Seismicity**\ This program creates long-term forecasts of shallow seismicity in spatial-grid (.GRD) format.\ It implements the two SHIFT (Seismic Hazard Inferred From Tectonics) hypotheses first published by Bird & Liu [2007].\ The inputs typically include an optimized NeoKinema regional model of neotectonic kinematics, supplemented by a global plate model like PB2002 [Bird, 2003] to fill in the edges of a rectangular grid.\ Note that these .GRD files of forecast seismicity can be plotted with program NeoKineMap, and tested with program Kagan_2009_GJI_I_scores.\ Long_Term_Seismicity/**Long_Term_Seismicity_v11.f90.txt**\ Fortran 90 source code, version 11 of 2018.\ Long_Term_Seismicity/**Long_Term_Seismicity-Win32seq.exe** and **Long_Term_Seismicity-Win64seq.exe**\ Executable versions for 32-bit and 64-bit Windows, respectively.\ Long_Term_Seismicity/**Orogens** Selected examples of predictions of Long_Term_Seismicity.\ Long_Term_Seismicity/Orogens/**Alpine-Agean** Contains 4 predicted seismicity .GRD files (see 00_FILE_FORMATS) based on the NeoKinema model of Howe & Bird [2010].\ The difference between these 4 grids is in the threshold magnitude: 5+, 6+, 7+, or 8+. (Earthquakes below the current threshold magnitude are not counted.)\ Long_Term_Seismicity/Orogens/**Gorda-California-Nevada** Contains seismicity forecasts for the Gorda-California-Nevada orogen defined by Bird [2003].\ Long_Term_Seismicity/Orogens/Gorda-California-Nevada/**forcast_of_Bird_at_UCLA.dat.txt**\ Forecast based on an early version of the model later published by Bird & Liu [2007].\ Submitted to the RELM (Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models) experiment organized by CSEP = Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability.\ The format was specified by CSEP.\ The columns are: minimum & maximum longitude of cell; minimum & maximum latitude; minimum & maximum depth in km; minimum & maximum magnitude; number of earthquakes predicted during the 5-year test.\ Long_Term_Seismicity/Orogens/Gorda-California-Nevada/**LTSv3_GCN2008088_m5.663.grd.txt**\ Forecast created in 2008, using version 3 of Long_Term_Seismicity. The magnitude threshold was m5.663+.\ Long_Term_Seismicity/Orogens/Gorda-California-Nevada/**LTSv5_NSHM-WUS_2013001_m5.3.grd.txt**\ Forecast created by Bird [2014] for the U.S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Map [Petersen et al., 2014], using version 5 of Long_Term_Seismicity. The magnitude threshold was m5.3+.\ Long_Term_Seismicity/Orogens/**Persia-Tibet-Burma**\ Forecasts for the Persia-Tibet-Burma orogen (defined by Bird, 2003) based on research by Liu & Bird [2008].\ Long_Term_Seismicity/Orogens/Persia-Tibet-Burma/**LTS_v2_PTM2007008.grd.txt**\ Forecast in spatial-grid (.GRD) format (see 00_FILE_FORMATS above).\ Long_Term_Seismicity/Orogens/Persia-Tibet-Burma/**LTS_v2_PTM2007008.jpg** and **LTS_v2_PTM2007008_vs_CMT.jpg**\ Two images of maps of the forecast above, using a logarithmic color scale. One version also show actual earthquakes during 1977-2008.\ Long_Term_Seismicity/Orogens/**Philippines**\ Forecasts for the Philippines orogen (defined by Bird, 2003) based on research by Rucker [2009].\ Long_Term_Seismicity/Orogens/Philippines/**LTSv3_KRPNS22432_m5.663.grd.txt**\ Forecast in spatial-grid (.GRD) format (see 00_FILE_FORMATS above).\ Long_Term_Seismicity/Orogens/Philippines/**LTSv3_KRPNS22432_m5.663.jpg** and **LTSv3_KRPNS22432_m5.663_vs_CMT.jpg**\ Two images of maps of the forecast above, using a logarithmic color scale. One version also show actual earthquakes during 1977-2008. **MapTools**\ Fortran 90 source code for modules that permit my other programs to output maps in .AI (Adobe Illustrator) format.\ Module names that begin with "D" indicate DOUBLE-PRECISION (REAL*8) accuracy, requiring REAL*8 arguments in all CALLs to subprograms in that module.\ MapTools/**MapTools_READ_ME.txt**\ Brief introduction to the contents of this folder.\ MapTools/**Adobe_Illustrator.f90.txt** and **DAdobe_Illustrator.f90.txt**\ Low-level routines that support adding points, lines, curves, and text into an .AI template file. MapTools/**AI7frame.ai**\ The template file mentioned above. Necessary when running any of my mapping applications.\ MapTools/**Map_Projections.f90.txt** and **DMap_Projections.f90.txt**\ Additional module (to be used with Adobe_Illustrator.f90) allowing objects to be specified in (longitude, latitude) coordinates.\ MapTools/**Map_Tools.f90.txt** and **DMap_Tools.f90.txt**\ Additional module (to be used with Map_Projections.f90) that simplifies adding component parts of typical maps, such as graticule (lon/lat) grids and x/y grids, frames with km or lon/lat in degrees, digitised basemaps, vectors, strain(-rate) tensors, stress tensors, and contour maps of scalars on either the sphere or the plane, plus color-bar (or pattern-bar) and other sample Explanation items in the margins.\ MapTools/**Flat_Section.f90.txt** and **DFlat_Section.f90.txt**\ Module that supports plotting scalar and tensor variables under topography on vertical cross-sections through a flat Earth. Used in application FlatMaxwell.\ MapTools/**Sphere.f90.txt** and **DSphere.f90.txt**\ Module to support geometric operations on a sphere (e.g., length and azimuth(s) of an arc; area of spherical triangle). This module does not involve any graphics operations; just geometry.\ MapTools/**Icosahedron.f90.txt** and **DIcosahedron.f90.txt**\ Recursive code to divide each facet of an icosahedron into 4 spherical triangles, as many times as desired. Used in the OrbWin F-E grid editor, for example.\ MapTools/**Quaternion.f90.txt**\ Fortran 90 version of operators created by Yan Y. Kagan, which can rotate a high-rank tensor like an earthquake focal mechanism. Used in EQ_classification_II. **NeoKinema**\ An application for modeling NEOtectonic KINEMAtics. A 2-D F-E grid represents the model domain, with fault corridors (see folder Fault_Corridors) along major active fault traces. Plate-tectonic velocity boundary conditions are typically imposed on the edges. Other input data may include GPS velocities, geologic constraints on some fault offset rates, and principal stress directions. Output predictions include long-term velocities, long-term fault offset rates, long-term strain-rates in the continuum between modeled faults, and more stress directions. All input and output files can be mapped with application NeoKineMap. If Long_Term_Seismicity is also used as a postprocessor, then maps of forecast earthquake rates are available.\ NeoKinema/**NeoKinema_v5.4.f90.txt**\ Fortran 90 source code for the latest (and recommended) version of NeoKinema. For other modules needed to compile, see folder MapTools and folder Dislocations.\ NeoKinema/**NeoKinema_v5.4-Win32seq.exe** and **NeoKinema_v5.4-Win64seq.exe**\ Sequential-computation executables for 32-bit and 64-bit Windows, respectively (for computers without parallel capability).\ NeoKinema/**NeoKinema_v5.4-Win32par.exe** and **NeoKinema_v5.4-Win64par.exe**\ Parallel-computation executables for 32-bit and 64-bit Windows, respectively (for computers that have multiple processors, or multiple virtual processors).\ NeoKinema/**each_WinNNpar.EXE_requires_one_DLL.txt**\ Information about the redistributable DLL = Dynamic Link Library that is needed to support parallel computation.\ NeoKinema/**parameters_for_NeoKinema.nki.txt**\ Sample parameter input file, with meaning and units of each parameter indicated to the right of the value. [Note: .NKI = NeoKinema Input file.]\ NeoKinema/**tutorial**\ 7 files that attempt to give an overview of the assumptions, algorithms, and work-flows in any NeoKinema project.\ NeoKinema/tutorial/**NeoKinema_modeling_process.pdf** and **NeoKinema_modeling_process.jpg**\ Graphical overview of the workflow in typical NeoKinema projects, in a choice of 2 formats.\ NeoKinema/tutorial/**Appendix-Algorithm_of_NeoKinema.pdf**\ A 27-page white-paper laying out the assumptions and equations of NeoKinema, with References Cited.\ NeoKinema/tutorial/**Appendix_to_the_Appendices.pdf**\ An additional white-paper deriving the formula for strain-energy minimization that mimics the mechanics of a uniform viscous shell.\ NeoKinema/tutorial/**isotropic_viscous_lithosphere.pdf**\ Additional notes and equations relating to the response of an isotropic viscous lithosphere under deviatoric stresses.\ NeoKinema/tutorial/**NeoKinema_manual.txt**\ Detailed instructions on formatting input files for NeoKinema, and on format of output files. Copied from the top part of the Fortran 90 source code above.\ NeoKinema/tutorial/**Computing_fault_slip_rates_from_NeoKinema_output.txt**\ Detailed instructions, combined with advice that it is much easier to run my post-processor utility program Rake_and_Sliprate_Per_Fault (below).\ NeoKinema/**orogens**\ 5 examples of published applications of NeoKinema to different orogens on the Earth.\ NeoKinema/orogens/**Alpine-Aegean**\ Input files to reproduce the NeoKinema model of Howe & Bird [2010] for the Alpine-Aegean orogen defined by Bird [2003].\ NeoKinema/orogens/Alpine-Aegean/**2009TC002565_read-me.txt**\ Overview of the digital supplement to Howe & Bird [2010], explaining the contents and format of all 8 input (.NKI) files.\ NeoKinema/orogens/**Gorda-California-Nevada**\ Input and output and related files from the NeoKinema model of Bird [2009] for the Gorda-California-Nevada orogen defined by Bird [2003].\ NeoKinema/orogens/Gorda-California-Nevada/**2009jb006317-readme.txt**\ This text file was the entry point for the digital supplement to Bird [2009]. It explains the function and format of all input (.NKI) and output (.NKO) files in the folder. For more detailed format specifications, see file NeoKinema_manual.txt in folder NeoKinema/tutorial.\ NeoKinema/orogens/Gorda-California-Nevada/**f_GCN_nko_ranges.txt**\ This tab-delimited version of a spreadsheet table was produced by supplemental utility program RangeFinder in NeoKinema/RangeFinder.\ NeoKinema/orogens/**Persia-Tibet-Burma**\ Input (.NKI) and output (.NKO) files of the NeoKinema model of Liu & Bird [2008] for the Persia-Tibet-Burma orogen defined by Bird [2003]. Note the following filename prefixes: b\_ = boundary conditions, e\_ = strain-rates, f\_ = faults, g\_ = geodesy, h\_ = fault offset rates, p\_ = parameters, s\_ = stress-directions, t\_ = text output, v\_ = long-term-average velocity. For detailed format specifications, see file NeoKinema_manual.txt in folder NeoKinema/tutorial.\ NeoKinema/orogens/**Philippines**\ Input (.NKI) and output (.NKO) files of the NeoKinema model of Rucker [2009] for the Philippines orogen defined by Bird [2003]. Note the following filename prefixes: b\_ = boundary conditions, e\_ = strain-rates, f\_ = faults, g\_ = geodesy, h\_ = fault heave rates, p\_ = parameters, s\_ = stress-directionsc For detailed format specifications, see file NeoKinema_manual.txt in folder NeoKinema/tutorial.\ NeoKinema/orogens/**WUS_for_UCERF3_and_NSHM2014**\ Input (.NKI) and output (.NKO) files of the NeoKinema model of Bird [2014] {within Petersen et al. [2014]} for the WUS = Western (conterminous) United States. This model was created for the UCERF3 = Unified California Earthquake Rupture Forecast version 3, a creation of the Southern California Earthquake Center. Later it was adopted by the U.S. Geological Survey as one of the deformation models for the 2014 update of NSHM = National Seismic Hazard Model/Map.\ NeoKinema/orogens/WUS_for_UCERF3_and_NSHM2014/**1_Slippery_analysis_of_offset_rates**\ See top-level folder Slippery for the program that computes uncertainties in fault offset rates derived from dated offset features [Bird, 2007]. Here are the specific files for this project:\ **f_NSHM-WUS_NoCA_2012-complete_output-tab-delimited.txt** is the table of fault offset rates created by Slippery, in which the left columns are input data and the right columns are computed results. (For descriptions of columns see folder Slippery.)\ **References_Cited.pdf** contains full bibliographic citations matching each short-form citation in this table.\ NeoKinema/orogens/WUS_for_UCERF3_and_NSHM2014/**2_program_NeoKinema**\ Version 3 of NeoKinema, including Fortran 90 source code **NeoKinema_v3.0.f90.txt** and the executable **NeoKinema_v3.0.exe** for Windows. Note that this is not the latest NeoKinema version, but it is the version that was used in this project.\ NeoKinema/orogens/WUS_for_UCERF3_and_NSHM2014/**3_model_using_FM3.1**\ The UCERF3 team created 2 different fault models with equal probability: Fault Model 3.1 and Fault Model 3.2. This folder contains results obtained with the former.\ NeoKinema/orogens/WUS_for_UCERF3_and_NSHM2014/**Appendix_for_NSHM2014_report.pdf**\ Full text of Bird [2014], which was later published as part of Petersen et al. [2014]. NeoKinema/orogens/WUS_for_UCERF3_and_NSHM2014/3_model_using_FM3.1/**1_input_files**\ Note the following filename prefixes: b\_ = boundary conditions, f\_ = faults, p\_ = parameters, s\_ = stress-directions. For detailed format specifications, see file NeoKinema_manual.txt in folder NeoKinema/tutorial.\ NeoKinema/orogens/WUS_for_UCERF3_and_NSHM2014/3_model_using_FM3.1/**2_output_files**\ Note the following filename prefixes: e\_ = strain rates, f\_ = faults, g\_ = geodesy, p\_ = parameters, s\_ = stress-directions, t\_ = text output, v\_ = long-term-average velocity. For detailed format specifications, see file NeoKinema_manual.txt in folder NeoKinema/tutorial.\ NeoKinema/orogens/WUS_for_UCERF3_and_NSHM2014/3_model_using_FM3.1/**3_graphics_files**\ A collection of maps showing input and output of this model, in both .AI (Adobe Illustrator) and .JPG formats. Note the following filename prefixes: ec\_ = strain-rate of continuum, GPSerror\_ = unfit features of GPS input data, h1\_ = fault heave rates, v\_ = long-term-average velocity.\ NeoKinema/orogens/WUS_for_UCERF3_and_NSHM2014/3_model_using_FM3.1/**4_deformation_model**\ This folder contains information passed to the UCERF3 and NSHM2014 teams for their databases on long-term fault slip rates and continuum strain-rates.\ NeoKinema/orogens/WUS_for_UCERF3_and_NSHM2014/3_model_using_FM3.1/4_deformation_model/**manual_adjustments_20130322.pdf**\ A cautionary document explaining how a comprehensive review (by 2 teams) of these NeoKinema results showed local problems that required some fault slip rates to be manually adjusted.\ NeoKinema/orogens/WUS_for_UCERF3_and_NSHM2014/3_model_using_FM3.1/4_deformation_model/**faults_omitted_in_NSHM-WUS_2013001.txt**\ A brief explanatory note concerning 2 fault systems that had redundant overlapping traces in the input dataset, and how this issue was handled.\ NeoKinema/orogens/WUS_for_UCERF3_and_NSHM2014/3_model_using_FM3.1/4_deformation_model/**NSHM-WUS_2013001_rake_and_sliprate_per_fault-tab-delimited.txt**\ Tab-delimited version of a table produced by auxiliary utility program Rake_And_Sliprate_Per_Fault (see table format in NeoKinema/Rake_And_SlipRate_Per_Fault/).\ NeoKinema/orogens/WUS_for_UCERF3_and_NSHM2014/3_model_using_FM3.1/4_deformation_model/**NSHM-WUS_2013001_rake_and_sliprate_per_UCERF3_FM3p1_minisection-tab-delimited.txt**\ Tab-delimited version of a table produced by auxiliary utility program Rake_And_Sliprate_Per_Fault (see table format in NeoKinema/Rake_And_SlipRate_Per_Fault/). The difference between this table and the previous one is that here a fault slip-rate is reported for each of many very short segments of each fault trace. My opinion is that the previous table, with just one mean sliprate for each whole fault trace, is more reliable.\ NeoKinema/orogens/WUS_for_UCERF3_and_NSHM2014/3_model_using_FM3.1/4_deformation_model/**NSHM-WUS_2013001_continuum_strainrates-UCERF3_grid.dat.txt**\ Strain-rates of continuum (crust between the modeled faults), reported on the spatial grid standardized for the UCERF3 project.\ NeoKinema/orogens/WUS_for_UCERF3_and_NSHM2014/3_model_using_FM3.1/4_deformation_model/**NSHM-WUS_2013001_continuum_strainrates-NSHM_grid.dat.txt**\ Strain-rates of continuum (crust between the modeled faults), reported on the spatial grid standardized for the NSHM2014 project.\ NeoKinema/orogens/WUS_for_UCERF3_and_NSHM2014/3_model_using_FM3.1/4_deformation_model/**long-term_continuum_strainrates_READ_ME.txt**\ Explanation of the formats of the 2 gridded strain-rate reports listed above.\ NeoKinema/orogens/WUS_for_UCERF3_and_NSHM2014/**4_model_using_FM3.2**\ Slightly different input and output files obtained using UCERF3's Fault Model 3.2. All subfolders and files are parallel to those in folder 3_model_using_FM3.1 above.\ NeoKinema/**Analyze_Velocity_Evolution**\ A utility program designed to handle those very rare cases where the NeoKinema solution does not converge. By setting a switch at the end of the parameter.nki file, a log-file of all the iterations can be created, and this program Analyze_Velocity_Evolution may provide insight into the problem. This folder contains both source code (.f90) and Windows executable (.exe) files.\ NeoKinema/**Delete_Cracked_Benchmarks**\ A useful utility program to solve the problem of forbidden "cracked benchmarks" which are any GPS sites that fall into a fault corridor (see Fault_Corridors above). When NeoKinema produces a list of cracked benchmarks and then stops, that list can be input to this app, and this app will divide the GPS input file (g_{token}.NKI) into a useful part and a useless part. Then NeoKinema can be run again with the smaller GPS input file, fixing the problem. If your application also has a geodetic-covariance (.GP2) file, then this app will also partition that matrix into 2 smaller .GP2 files at the same time, maintaing the alignment between your .GPS and your .GP2 files. This folder contains both source code (.f90) and Windows executable (.exe) files.\ NeoKinema/**GPS_2_DIG**\ A simple but useful utility that allows GPS benchmark locations to be plotted in either OrbWin or NeoKineMap (for example). The input .GPS file (see 00_FILE_FORMATS above) is not changed, but an additional .DIG file is produced that marks each benchmark with a small cross inside a small triangle.\ NeoKinema/**NK_Interseismic_Vs_At_Benchmarks**\ Utility program in the NeoKinema family; used to compute and report NeoKinema model interseismic velocities at GPS geodetic benchmarks. The method is to assume that the model errors are the same in the interseismic domain (of *.GPS) and in the long-term domain (of g_[token].NKO), and transfer these errors across files, for all benchmarks that were actually used in the final solution. This folder contains both source code (.f90) and Windows executable (.exe) files.\ NeoKinema/**Rake_and_Sliprate_Per_Fault**\ A useful postprocessor in the NeoKinema family, which combines both the predicted strike-slip and dip-slip offset rates for each modeled fault, to obtain its slip rate. Columns of the output file are: (1) fault index number (Fnnnn); (2) fault name; (3) rake in degrees; (4) slip rate in mm/a; (5) fault dip in degrees; (6) logical (T/F) memo: Is this fault creeping?; (7) dextral strike-slip heave rate in mm/a; (8) opening heave rate component (perpendicular to trace) in mm/a. This folder contains both source code (.f90) and Windows executable (.exe) files.\ NeoKinema/**RangeFinder**\ A utility program for post-processing groups of f_[token].NKO output files produced by multiple runs of NeoKinema (in the same orogen, but not necessarily with identical fault sets). It reads as many f_[token].nko files as the user specifies, and then creates a tab-delimited RangeFinder.TXT output file which reports the range of input and output offset rates found among those files, and also the number of times that a particular {fault#, offset-sense} combination was encountered in the set of files. This folder contains both source code (.f90) and Windows executable (.exe) files.\ NeoKinema/**StrainRates2016**\ A post-processing utility to provide more insight into the interseismic velocity and strain-rate fields predicted by any NeoKinema solution. Computes velocities and (2-D) strain-rates on a fine (e.g., 0.01-degree) grid based on a preferred NeoKinema model whose .feg file covers most/all of this area. Output is provided for 3 velocity/strain-rate fields on this grid: (1) Long-term-average; (2) Mean-coseismic; (3) Interseismic = (Long-term-average) - (Mean-coseismic). For all grid points that fall within a faulted element of the NeoKinema .feg, the NeoKinema elements are used to interpolate NeoKinema nodal velocities, so strain-rates are uniform in small triangles, and there are no singularities. However, for grid points that fall in un-faulted NeoKinema elements, the NeoKinema interpolation of NK nodal velocities is only used for field (1); for field (2) the values are computed freshly from dislocation solutions applied to NeoKinema fault patches, at the grid receiver points. This better represents the expected arctan-function behavior away from faults.\ NeoKinema/**legacy_code**\ This folder contains older versions of NeoKinema: versions 3.0, 3.1, 4.0, 4.1, 4.2, and 4.3. The differences between each version and the previous version are explained in comment lines near the beginning of the source code (.f90) file. 32-bit and 64-bit executables (.EXE) for Windows are also provided. **NeoKineMap**\ Graphics program associated with modeling code NeoKinema (see folder above). Able to map almost all NeoKinema input files (.NKI) and NeoKinema output files (.NKO). Also useful for plotting several related datasets: (1) global plate-tectonic model of Bird [2003] from folder PB2002; (2) forecasts of long-term seismicity from folder Long_Term_Seismicity; (3) earthquake catalog files (.EQC), possibly including focal mechanisms.\ User controls map projection, center, scale, and size of virtual paper. Output is in .AI (Adobe Illustrator) format.\ NeoKineMap/**NeoKineMap.f90.txt** Fortran 90 source code. Other modules needed to compile are located in folder MapTools.\ NeoKineMap/**NeoKineMap-Win32seq.exe** and **NeoKineMap-Win64seq.exe**\ Executables for 32-bit and 64-bit Windows, respectively.\ NeoKineMap/**AI7frame.ai**\ A small "template" Adobe Illustrator file that must be present when (and where) NeoKineMap is running. **neotec**\ A set of 2.5-D finite-element programs, developed over many years, for dynamic modeling of neotectonics. See Bird [1999] for an overview.\ neotec/**neotec_READ_ME.txt**\ A conceptual guide to the distinctions between "neotectonics" and "paleotectonics", and also between "kinematic" and "dynamic" modeling. Includes a discussion of the differences between the 3 neotectonic dynamical codes in this folder: FAULTS, PLATES, and SHELLS.\ neotec/**FAULTS**\ A 2.5-D F-E code for modeling neotectonic dynamics of a faulted crust on a flat Earth (using Cartesian coordinates). Used in the California models of Bird & Kong [1994].\ neotec/FAULTS/**Read_Me.8.txt**\ A practical guide to running FAULTS, and plotting its output, on computer systems available in 1998; the memory and speed limits mentioned are no longer important.\ neotec/FAULTS/**source**\ Fortran 77 source codes for programs FAULTS, PlotFaults, and Faults2AI. PlotFaults is probably no longer useful because it spoke to a specific graphic device: the Versatec electrostatic plotter. Today, program Fault2AI is recommended for its device-independence.\ neotec/FAULTS/**work**\ Input and output files from the simulation of California by Bird & Kong [1994]:\ **calxy.dig.txt** is an outline of California in Cartesian coordinates, in .DIG format (see 00_FILE_FORMATS).\ **net1991.feg.txt** is the F-E grid file, with both triangular continuum elements and linear fault elements, both of which may have curved sides [Bird, 1999]. Besides defining the grid geometry, this file contains physical data at each node: elevation (m), heat-flow (W/square-meter), and crustal thickness (m). Fault elements (defined at the end of the file) include dip angles for each.\ **aliases.txt** describes a node-renumbering system that was used in 1991 to slightly reduce the size of the linear systems that must be solved.\ **bc1991.bcs.txt** contains velocity boundary conditions, with fixed node velocities in m/s, and fixed azimuths in degrees clockwise from geographic North.\ **p98c813.in.txt** contains input parameters for the preferred model (98C813), with parameter descriptions and units listed to the right of each value.\ **t98c813.out.txt** is the log from a run of FAULTS on this preferred model, showing convergence of the iteration, and listing aspects of the solution in tables.\ **v98c813.out.txt** contains model horizontal velocities of nodes, with East component before North, and both in m/s.\ **LanModel.ai** is a small "template" file in .AI (Adobe Illustrator) format that will be expanded when Faults2AI is run to map the solution.\ neotec/FAULTS/**Faults2AI.exe**\ Executable of mapping program Faults2AI for 32-bit Windows. Requires template file LanModel.ai to be available at run-time.\ neotec/**PLATES**\ A 2.5-D F-E code for modeling neotectonic dynamics of a faulted crust AND underlying mantle-lithosphere on a flat Earth (using Cartesian coordinates). Used in the Alaska models of Bird [1996].\ neotec/PLATES/**Read_Me.9.txt**\ A complete step-by-step guide to the workflow of modeling with PLATES.\ neotec/PLATES/**source**\ Fortran 77 source codes for programs PLATES, PlotPlates, and Plates2AI. PlotPlates is probably no longer useful because it spoke to a specific graphic device: the Versatec electrostatic plotter. Today, program Plates2AI is recommended for its device-independence. Other utility programs necessary to reproduce the Alaska project are included here:\ **geoxy2is.for.txt** reads benchmark locations in a flat-Earth (x,y) coordinate system (the same as used in the preparation of a finite element grid for model -PLATES-) and converts them to element numbers and internal (s1,s2,s3) coordinates within the element. Points which do not lie in any element are merely dropped from the output file.\ **strll2xy.for.txt** reads North American stress data file from the geophysics of North America compact disk (by Mary Lou Zoback) and converts (latitude,longitude) -&gt; (x,y) in the finite element model plane (assuming a conformal or simple conic projection), and converts azimuth of compression (clockwise, from N) to argument of compression (counterclockwise, from +x).\ **strxy2is.for.txt** reads North American stress data file originally preprocessed by program "strll2xy" (which performs map projection and windows).\ This program converts (x,y) to the triangular continuum element number (IE) and the 3 internal coordinate values (S1,S2,S3). Points which do not lie in any element are merely dropped from the output file.\ **Score_AK.for.txt** computes numerical scores of finite element velocity models from program -PLATES- by using slip-rate, stress, and geodetic data.\ neotec/PLATES/**work**\ Input and output files from the simulation of Alaska by Bird [1996].\ **BSCoastX.dig.txt** holds digitized coastlines in the Alaskan-Bering Sea region, in Cartesian (x, y) components of the map-projection plane, in m.\ **AK795.feg.txt** is the F-E grid file, with both triangular continuum elements and linear fault elements, both of which may have curved sides [Bird, 1999]. Besides defining the grid geometry, this file contains physical data at each node: elevation (m), heat-flow (W/square-meter), crustal thickness (m), and mantle-lithosphere thickness (m). Fault elements (defined at the end of the file) include dip angles for each.\ **Fake_Q_f.dig.txt** holds contour lines (of equal heat-flow), allowing the user of DrawGrid to manually assign heat-flow values to each node in AK795.feg.\ **AKbc795.bcs.txt** contains velocity boundary conditions, with fixed node velocities in m/s, and fixed azimuths in degrees clockwise from geographic North.\ **inAK9801.in.txt** contains input parameters for the preferred model (AK9801), with parameter descriptions and units listed to the right of each value.\ **PLATES.aix.txt** is a brief batch file that was used to execute this PLATES model under the AIX operating system.\ **tAK9801.out.txt** is the log from a run of PLATES on this preferred model, showing convergence of the iteration, and listing aspects of the solution in tables.\ **vAK9801.out.txt** contains model horizontal velocities of nodes, with East component before North, and both in m/s.\ **geodesy_xy.dat.txt** has the Cartesian (x, y) coordinates of GPS sites in the modeling plane, in m. The second half of the file lists GPS velocities in mm/a and arguments counterclockwise from the +x axis.\ **geodesy_feis.dat.txt** is similar except that the first part of the file gives locations in terms of finite-element# and dimensionless internal coordinates (s1, s2). Produced by accessory application geoxy2is.\ **Slip795.dat.txt** holds a few geologic constraints on slip-rates of modeled faults. Columns are: fault element#; internal coordinate s; toward-node#; lower limit on strike-slip rate; upper limit; lower limit on convergence rate; upper limit.\ **stresses_xy.dat.txt** contains stress-direction data in Cartesian (x, y) coordinates. Columns are: datum-name; x(m), y(m), quality, data-type, argument (degrees), stress-regime, uncertainty, source.\ **stresses_feis.dat.txt** is the same as above, except locations are given as: finite-element#, and dimensionless internal coordinates (s1, s2).\ **Score_AK.aix.txt** is a brief batch file for running Score_AK on this model, under the AIX operating system.\ **sAK9801.out.txt** is the log-file from running Score_AK; it echoes the scoring data and then presents tables of model misfits, ending with summary statistics.\ **LanModel.ai** is a small "template" .AI (Adobe Illustrator) file, which mapping program Plates2AI will expand as it runs.\ neotec/PLATES/**Plates2AI.exe**\ Executable of mapping program Plates2AI for 32-bit Windows. Requires template file LanModel.ai to be available at run-time.\ neotec/**SHELLS**\ A 2.5-D F-E code for modeling neotectonic dynamics of a faulted crust and underlying mantle-lithosphere on a SPHERICAL planet. Used in the global Earth_update model of Bird et al. [2026?]. Could also be used to re-run earlier global models Earth2 by Bird [1998(a)] and the Earth5 model by Bird et al. [2008]. Note that associated F-E grid editor OrbWin is in a top-level folder. Also, associated mapping postprocessor FiniteMap is in a top-level folder.\ neotec/SHELLS/**SHELLS_v5.0.f90.txt**\ Fortran 90 source code for SHELLS_v5.0. Additional module DSphere.f90 needed for compilation is contained in top-level folder MapTools.\ neotec/SHELLS/**SHELLS_v5.0-Win32seq.exe** and **SHELLS_v5.0-Win64seq.exe**\ Sequential ("seq") executables for 32-bit and 64-bit Windows, respectively.\ neotec/SHELLS/**SHELLS_v5.0-Win32par.exe** and **SHELLS_v5.0-Win64par.exe**\ Parallel ("par") executables for 32-bit and 64-bit Windows, respectively.\ neotec/SHELLS/**each_WinNNpar.EXE_requires_one_DLL.txt**\ Explanation of how to prepare your computer for parallel execution (if desired) by obtaining and positioning a required redistributable DLL = Dynamic Link Library.\ neotec/SHELLS/**OrbNumber**\ After creating or editing a spherical F-E grid in OrbWin (see top-level folder), the nodes must be renumbered with this OrbNumber utility. Both source code (.f90) and executables (.exe) are given.\ neotec/SHELLS/**OrbData**\ Before running SHELLS, existing published datasets and this utility program must be used to assign nodal data throughout the F-E grid.\ neotec/SHELLS/OrbData/**OrbData_READ_ME.txt**\ Text file explaining the OrbData nodal-data process, and also the differences between the older version OrbData and the newer OrbData5. Both source code (.f90) and executables (.exe) are given for each version.\ neotec/SHELLS/**BCs_tool**\ Utility program that is helpful in assigning boundary conditions at nodes of a SHELLS .feg that require them: model edges (if any) and on all subducting slabs. Both source code (.f90) and executables (.exe) are given.\ neotec/SHELLS/**Earth2**\ The global neotectonic dynamic model of Bird [1998(a)], which used a rather crude F-E grid based on the second-level subdivision of a global icosahedron ("Earth2").\ neotec/SHELLS/Earth2/**PB1999**\ Files describing a simple model of plate boundaries with 12 plates, called PB1999. {Now supplanted by the PB2002 model (see top-level folder) of Bird [2003] with 52 plates.}\ neotec/SHELLS/Earth2/PB1999/**PB1999_plates.ai**\ Overview of PB1999, presented as a Mercator map of the 12 plates in .AI (Adobe Illustrator) format.\ neotec/SHELLS/Earth2/PB1999/**PB1999_plates.dig.txt**\ Closed counterclockwise polylines giving the limits of each of the 12 plates, in .DIG format (see top-level 00_FILE_FORMATS).\ neotec/SHELLS/Earth2/PB1999/**PB1999_boundaries.dig.txt**\ Open polylines for each boundary between two different plates that touch. Note that characters "/" or "\\" in boundary titles indicate subduction, and its sense.\ neotec/SHELLS/Earth2/**global_GRDs**\ Contains two global data grids (see top-level 00_FILE_FORMATS) that were used with OrbData to assign nodal data to each node in the F-E grid.\ neotec/SHELLS/Earth2/global_GRDs/**meantopo.grd.txt**\ Topography of the Earth, in m above sea level, on a very coarse grid with 5-degree spacing.\ neotec/SHELLS/Earth2/global_GRDs/**mean_Q.grd.txt**\ Heatflow of the Earth, in W/square-meter, on a coarse grid with 5-degree spacing. See Bird [1998(a)] for sources and methods of compilation.\ neotec/SHELLS/Earth2/**ICONVE_options**\ Parameter ICONVE in SHELLS selects the preferred model of mantle convection under the modeled lithosphere. Data files are provided for 2 options used in this study.\ neotec/SHELLS/Earth2/ICONVE_options/**HOC79II.DIG.txt**\ Data file needed when ICONVE = 1 is selected; respresents model II of Hager & O'Connell [1979].\ neotec/SHELLS/Earth2/ICONVE_options/**BAUM887.DIG.txt**\ Data file needed when ICONVE = 2 is selected; represents a scaled-up (in Rayleigh number) version of the mantle convection model #8 of Baumgardner [1983].\ neotec/SHELLS/Earth2/**scoring_data**\ Datasets used to assess the relative misfit of each candidate Earth2 model, using OrbScore:\ **Fig5A_stress.dat.txt** dataset equivalent to Figure 5A in Bird & Li [1996]: interpolated azimuths of most-compressive horizontal principal stress, with uncertainties.\ **geodesy.gps.txt** is a table (in .GPS format) of 28 relative horizontal velocities derived from SLR and VLBI data by Robaudo & Harrison [1993].\ **magnetic.dat.txt** is a table of seafloor spreading rates (in mm/a) based on marine magnetic anomly bands, originally by DeMets et al. [1990].\ **OrbScore.aix.txt** is a small batch file for running this OrbScore job under the AIX operating system.\ **OrbScore.bat.txt** is an alternative small batch file for running this OrbScore job under Windows. **s2000-01.txt** is the log in which OrbScore reports the misfits of preferred global model 2000-01.\ neotec/SHELLS/Earth2/**2000-01**\ Input and output files for the preferred SHELLS model (named 2000-01) of Bird [1998(a)]:\ **Earth2P.feg.txt** F-E grid with nodal data: elevation (m), heat-flow (W/square-meter), crustal thickness (m), and mantle-lithosphere thickness (m); at end, dip angles in degrees are attached to each fault element.\ **Nuvel2P.bcs.txt** boundary conditions: velocities (in mm/a; column 4) and azimuths (in degrees, column 5) imposed on all subducting-slab nodes (column 2), according to the NUVEL-1A model of DeMets et al. [1990].\ **i2000-01.in.txt** parameter values for model 2000-01, with explanation and units written to the right of each value.\ **t2000-01.out.txt** log-file from SHELLS detailing the inputs to the model, convergence history, and outputs in human-readable form.\ **f2000-01.out.txt** computed forces (in N) that the mantle exerts on each node of the F-E grid; South component before East component for each node; 2.5 nodes per line in the file.\ **v2000-01.out.txt** computed velocities (in m/s) of each node in the F-E grid; South component before East component for each node; 2 nodes per line in the file.\ **s2000-01.out.txt** is the log in which OrbScore reports the misfits of preferred global model 2000-01.\ neotec/SHELLS/**Earth5**\ The global neotectonic dynamic model of Bird et al. [2008], which used a fine F-E grid based on the fifth-level subdivision of a global icosahedron ("Earth5").\ neotec/SHELLS/Earth5/**global_GRDs**\ Global datasets in .GRD format (see top-level folder 00_FILE_FORMATS) used to assign nodal data (in OrbData):\ **age_1p5.grd.txt** is age of seafloor in Ma (except: 220 = unknown; 260 = continental) originally from Mueller et al. [1997].\ **CRUST2.grd.txt** is thickness of crust (in km), originally from the CRUST2 model of Bassin et al. [2000].\ **delta_ts.grd.txt** travel-time anomaly (in s) for vertically-travelling S-waves through the upper mantle (above 400 km depth) based on model S20RTS of Ritsema & van Heijst [2000].\ **ETOPO20.grd.txt** topography of the Earth, in m above/below sea level, with resolution of 20' of longitude and latitude.\ **ETOPO20.grd.zip** compressed (.ZIP) .GRD of topography of the Earth, in m above/below sea level, with resolution of 5' of longitude and latitude.\ neotec/SHELLS/Earth5/**Earth5-049**\ Input and output files from the preferred global model (Earth5-049) of Bird et al. [2008]:\ **READ_ME.txt** is the introduction to the digital archive published with Bird et al. [2008], explaining both workflow and contents of each file here:\ **Earth5R.feg.txt** F-E grid with nodal data: elevation (m), heat-flow (W/square-meter), crustal thickness (m), and mantle-lithosphere thickness (m); at end, dip angles in degrees are attached to each fault element.\ **Earth5R-type4AplusA.bcs.txt** boundary condition used in all iterations of the model EXCEPT the last; includes ficticious constraints on 2~3 nodes in the middle of each plate of PB2002.\ **Earth5R-type4A.bcs.txt** boundary conditions used in the last iteration; subducting slab velocities still fixed, but ficticious plate-interior constraints released.\ **iEarth5-049.in.txt** parameter values for model Earth5-049, with explanation and units written to the right of each value.\ **Earth5-049.log.txt** log-file from SHELLS detailing the inputs to the model, convergence history, and outputs in human-readable form.\ **fEarth5-049.out.txt** computed forces (in N) that the mantle exerts on each node of the F-E grid; South component before East component for each node; 2.5 nodes per line in the file.\ **qEarth5-048.out.txt** torque report showing balance of forces on each plate (human-readable tables); this is from penultimate model run Earth5-048, to allow reproducing Earth5-049 more easily.\ **qEarth5-049.out.txt** torque report showing balance of forces on each plate (human-readable tables); this is the final result for preferred model Earth5-049.\ **vEarth5-049.out.txt** computed velocities (in m/s) of each node in the F-E grid; South component before East component for each node; 2 nodes per line in the file.\ **sEarth5-049.out.txt** is the log in which OrbScore2 reports the misfits of preferred global model Earth5-049.\ neotec/SHELLS/**Earth5_update**\ Recomputation of global models by Bird et al. [2026?], re-using the Earth5 F-E grid, but adding new (parallel) parameter-optimization software in ShellSet of May et al. [2024], new nodal datasets, new rheologies, and new scoring datasets.\ neotec/SHELLS/Earth5_update/**00_WORKFLOW_GUIDE.htm**\ Header file for the digital appendix to Bird et al. [2026?], explaining our workflow, alternate workflow options, and detailing the contents of (& linking to) each file in this folder.\ neotec/SHELLS/**OrbScore2**\ Postprocessor that computes misfits of any SHELLS model with respect to any relevant data. Updated version 2, used in the Earth5 project of Bird et al. [2009].\ neotec/SHELLS/OrbScore2/**OrbScore2_README_20181127.txt**\ Description of how OrbScore2 source code was upgraded in 2018 from Fortran 77 to Fortran 90, and how two bugs were fixed.\ neotec/SHELLS/OrbScore2/**OrbScore2.f90.txt**\ Fortran 90 source code for OrbScore2, as described in the file above.\ neotec/SHELLS/OrbScore2/**OrbScore2_batch-Win32seq.exe**\ Executable for 32-bit Windows, which runs under control of batch file OrbScore2.bat.\ neotec/SHELLS/OrbScore2/**OrbScore2_batch-Win64seq.exe**\ Executable for 64-bit Windows, which runs under control of batch file OrbScore2.bat.\ neotec/SHELLS/OrbScore2/**OrbScore2.bat.txt**\ Windows batch file for executing OrbScore2 in the background, without further operator intervention.\ neotec/SHELLS/OrbScore2/**OrbScore2_interactive-Win32seq.exe**\ Executable for 32-bit Windows which runs interactively, prompting the user for names of all necessary (or optional) input files.\ neotec/SHELLS/OrbScore2/**OrbScore2_interactive-Win64seq.exe**\ Executable for 64-bit Windows which runs interactively, prompting the user for names of all necessary (or optional) input files.\ neotec/SHELLS/OrbScore2/**data_formats**\ Subfolder containing 3 text files that specify the format of 3 types of input files potentially used by OrbScore2.\ neotec/SHELLS/OrbScore2/data_formats/**gps_format.txt**\ Explanation of format of .GPS (Global Positioning System) geodetic files, essentially equivalent to that given above in top-level 00_FILE_FORMATS. Note that user specifies a Fortran FORMAT line that controls column-widths.\ neotec/SHELLS/OrbScore2/data_formats/**slip_rate_format.txt**\ Explanation of format of data files containing offset rates of active faults. Note that this is a special case of .DIG format (see top-level 00_FILE_FORMATS) in which the second title line contains data.\ neotec/SHELLS/OrbScore2/data_formats/**stress_format.txt**\ Explanation of format of data files containing azimuths of most-compressive horizontal principal stresses.\ neotec/SHELLS/OrbScore2/**Earth5_scoring_data**\ Datasets input into OrbScore2 by Bird et al. [2008] to assess the misfit of each global SHELLS model:\ **Fouch_2006_SKS_splitting-selected.dat.txt** is a table of SKS-splitting results (fast azimuths "phi" in degrees; delay times "dt" in s) from Fouch & Rondenay [2006]. Selection process described in Bird et al. [2008].\ **GCMT_shallow_m5p7_1977-2017.eqc.txt** contains shallow earthquakes with m5.7+ from the Global Centroid Moment Tensor catalog, years 1977-2017. See top-level 00_FILE_FORMATS above.\ **GPS_2006_selected_subset.gps.txt** velocities from file GPS_vectors_after_rotation_NU.dat obtained in October 2006 from [http://gsrm.unavco.org/model/rotated_geodetic.html](http://gsrm.unavco.org/model/rotated_geodetic.html). See top-level 00_FILE_FORMATS above.\ **magnetic_PB2002.dat.txt** seafloor-spreading-rate table used by Bird [2003]; primarily based on tabulated data of DeMets et al. [1990], with a few later additions documented in Bird [2003].\ **robust_interpolated_stress_for_OrbScore2.dat.txt** azimuths of most-compressive horizontal principal stress axis, in degrees, computed by method of Bird & Li [1996] from World Stress Map and GCMT data. Columns: source, N latitude, E longitude, azimuth (degrees clockwise from geographic North), quality, stress-regime.\ neotec/SHELLS/OrbScore2/**DWeighting.f90.txt**\ Fortran 90 source code for an optional operation, that weights data on a globe in proportion to the area that each represents. Applied to GPS data by Bird et al. [2008].\ neotec/SHELLS/**OrbScore3**\ Fortran 90 source code (.f90) and 64-bit Windows parallel ("par") executable for OrbScore3. OrbScore3 is identical to OrbScore2 except that it adds 2 steps: (1) reading a GPS-velocity-covariance (.GP2) input file; and (2) computing alternative GPS misfits N0, N1, N2 on a per-eigenvalue basis, as in NeoKinema_v5.1+. In theory, this should be a better scoring criterion if the GPS dataset contains stations with highly-correlated noise.\ neotec/**WorldMap.dig.txt**\ A coarse map of global coastlines, useful for plotting all of the above datasets and models in FiniteMap. Format .DIG explained in top-level 00_FILE_FORMATS above.\ neotec/**Forearc**\ A program to help in preparing thin-plate finite element grids (.FEG files) which include a forearc region in the upper plate of a subduction zone. Before running this program, a grid is prepared and filled with elevation, heat-flow, crustal-thickness, and mantle-lithosphere thickness data at nodes. (This is done by assuming local isostasy and an isothermal surface at the base of the lithosphere, in program OrbData.) Then, this program Forearc is used to replace some values of crustal thickness and mantle lithosphere thickness in the forearc region. The output from this program is a modified .FEG file, which will NOT be isostatic or isothermally-limited in the forearc region. **OmegaXR**\ A handy utility program that computes the relative velocity between two adjacent plates, based on their Euler pole location (longitude, latitude) and rotation rate. Useful for investigating and/or revising global rigid-plate kinematic models; also useful for setting velocity boundary conditions on regional models computed with NeoKinema or SHELLS. Both Fortran 90 source code (.f90) and executables for Windows are provided. **OrbWin**\ Fully-interactive finite-element grid editor for Windows, which creates, edits, and displays 2-D grids of spherical triangle elements and (optional) linear fault elements. Essential to workflows of all F-E modeling programs that use spherical coordinates: NeoKinema, SHELLS, and Restore.\ OrbWin/**source_code**\ The division of the source code into a set of 20 files was dictated by the use of the DFWin module provided with Intel Visual Fortran Composer XE 2013 Update 5 to create a Standard Graphics Application, and this same compiler is recommended for recompiling if any changes are desired. This is the only application I have even written using the full Windows GUI (e.g., drop-down command menu at top of window, pop-up dialog boxes, and context-dependent results of mouse-click), and I have no wish to try another!\ OrbWin/**OrbWin-Win32seq.exe** and **OrbWin-Win32seq.exe**\ Executables for 32-bit and 64-bit Windows, respectively. Running either one will produce an application window, which should usually be set to full-screen view.\ OrbWin/**OrbWin_manual.pdf**\ A 44-page illustrated manual for OrbWin, covering uses and objectives, instruction in every command, and resulting .FEG file structures.\ OrbWin/**WorldMap.dig.txt**\ After starting OrbWin, one sees a simple circle representing an orthographic view of a planet. Usually, the next step is to load a "basemap" in .DIG format (see top-level 00_FILE_FORMATS). This one is a common choice; it represents the coastlines of Earth.\ OrbWin/**Earth5R.feg.txt**\ A sample .FEG (Finite-Element Grid) file that will display the capabilities of OrbWin. (After experimenting with this, you should save the result under another name.)\ OrbWin/**OrbNumber.f90.txt**\ Fortran 90 source code for an essential utility postprocessor that must be run after changing the topology of any .FEG in OrbWin! (Not needed if you only change nodal data or fault dips or Lithospheric Rheology indices (LRi).)\ OrbWin/**OrbNumber-Win32seq.exe** and **OrbNumber-Win64seq.exe**\ Executables for 32-bit and 64-bit Windows, respectively. After running OrbNumber, it is recommended to save the modified .FEG file under a different filename. **paleostress**\ Data files for the paleostress-direction study of Bird [2002], which covered the western USA and Mexico since 85 Ma (Late Cretaceous). The interpolation algorithm was that of Bird & Li [1996].\ paleostress/**2001TC001319-README.txt**\ Explanation of the database structure in the following file, including definition of each of the 10 columns.\ paleostress/**2001TC001319-TABLE.txt**\ Table summarizing paleostress-direction determinations from the geologic literature. Format explained in the preceding README file.\ paleostress/**2001TC001319-SOURCES.txt**\ Full bibliographic citations to match each of the short-form citations in the preceding TABLE file. **paleotec**\ Codes for paleotectonic (finite-strain) DYNAMIC modeling of lithosphere deformation. Program Laramy (and its associated utilities) is currently the only code here. {If you want paleotectonic KINEMATIC modeling, then see top-level folder Restore.}\ paleotec/**Laramy**\ A paleotectonic (finite-strain) dynamic modeling code based on methods of Bird [1989], applied to model the Laramide orogeny (formation of the Rocky Mountains) in the western United states from about 75 Ma to about 30 Ma. Publications resulting from this project were Bird [1998(b)] and Bird [1992].\ paleotect/Laramy/**Read_Me.1.txt**\ General introduction to all my F-E modeling codes, then focussing in on LARAMY and the input files it needs, and the output it produces. Includes suggestions for additional experiments.\ paleotec/Laramy/**OLD_Laramy.for.txt**\ FORTRAN77 source code for Laramy. The prefix "OLD_" indicates that a slightly faster-converging "NEW_" version was planned-but it never got written.\ paleotec/Laramy/**compile.jcl.txt**\ Sample of IBM Job Control Language (JCL) statements that were used to compile the source code above on an IBM 3090 under MVS. paleotec/Laramy/**compile.aix.txt**\ Alternate batch file to compile the same source code on an IBM RS/6000 under the AIX (IBM's imitation of Unix) operating system.\ paleotec/Laramy/**IN9828.txt**\ Input parameters for Laramy, corresponding to the most realistic model found. Each parameter is identified, and its units given, to the right of its chosen value.\ paleotec/Laramy/**CORD11N.txt**\ Dataset of initial conditions (with a continuous Cretaceous cordillera) read by Laramy to initialize its simulation at 85 Ma.\ Nodal positions (x, y) in m East and North; then geotherms in K; then crust and mantle-lithosphere layer thicknesses.\ Note that this takes the place of an .FEG file in my other F-E applications; here, the grid is regular-rectangular (as in FD), so no topology is notated.\ paleotec/Laramy/**runner.jcl.txt**\ Sample of IBM Job Control Language (JCL) statements that were used to run Laramy (with the preceding 2 files as input) on an IBM 3090 under MVS.\ paleotec/Laramy/**OLD_LARAMY.aix.txt**\ Alternate batch file to run Laramy on an IBM RS/6000 under the AIX (IBM's imitation of Unix) operating system.\ paleotec/Laramy/**P9828A00.txt**\ Text output from a run of Laramy model 98-28. Includes "printer plots" showing spatial relations with low resolution. See Read_Me.1.txt above for instructions on interpreting these.\ paleotec/Laramy/**T9828A00.txt**\ Output of all nodal values in model 98-28, at every timestep reached. This dataset can be used for restarting Laramy mid-simulation, and is also needed for each of the graphics postprocessors.\ paleotec/Laramy/**T9828END.txt**\ A manual excerpt from larger file T9828A00.txt, containing only the last timestep (near the geologic present). Required by many graphics postprocessor programs.\ paleotec/**Grafic**\ The GRAFIC directory contains programs needed to post-process the results of LARAMY runs to produce colored contour maps of the variables on a graphics terminal connected to a system which has IBM's Graphical Data Display Manager. (If you prefer to work on a PC or Mac, see subdirectory Laramy2AI, instead!)\ paleotec/Grafic/**Read_Me.2.txt**\ General introduction to all my F-E modeling codes, then focussing in on postprocessor GRAFIC and the input files it needs, and the output it produces.\ paleotec/Grafic/**GDDMComp**\ Contains both (inside) FORTRAN77 source code for program DRAW, which creates maps of Laramy variables at selected timesteps and stores them as graphics metafiles; also (outside) IBM Job Control Language (JCL) statements that were used to compile and run DRAW on an IBM 3090 under MVS.\ paleotec/Grafic/**basemap.txt**\ Basemap showing present state lines in the western conterminous USA. Format of each line: X in m; Y in m; T/F = Is the pen down when moving to this point?\ paleotec/Grafic/**paint.txt**\ IBM Job Control Language Statements used to load the (precompiled) program DRAW, and run it to produce a set of graphics metafiles on disk.\ paleotec/Grafic/**viewclist.txt**\ A command-list (clist) macro to be run from an IBM graphics terminal, which begins a session of viewing (and photographing?) graphic metafiles on an IBM 3179G terminal (in a darkened room).\ paleotec/**Versatec**\ Graphics post-processor for Laramy models which produces hard-copy on an IBM Versatec electrostatic printer. Note that plot-selection controls are appended to input file IN9828.txt.\ paleotec/Versatec/**read_me.3.txt**\ General introduction to all my F-E modeling codes, then focussing in on postprocessor Versatec and the input files it needs, and the output it produces.\ paleotec/Versatec/**VersComp.txt**\ Contains both (inside) FORTRAN77 source code for program DRAW, which creates maps of selected Laramy variables at the selected timestep and writes them to the Versatec plotter; also (outside) IBM Job Control Language (JCL) statements that were used to compile Versatec on an IBM 3090 under MVS.\ paleotec/Versatec/**plot.txt**\ Sample IBM Job Control Language to run the executable GO that was created by file VersComp above.\ paleotec/Versatec/**basemap.txt**\ Basemap showing present state lines in the western conterminous USA. Format of each line: X in m; Y in m; T/F = Is the pen down when moving to this point?\ paleotec/**Fixer**\ Interactive utility (on an IBM graphics terminal running TSO) to edit a few unphysical values in the LARAMY data arrays, so that more timesteps can be modeled.\ paleotec/Fixer/**read_me.4.txt**\ General introduction to all my F-E modeling codes, then focussing in on postprocessor FIX and the input files it needs, and the output it produces.\ paleotec/Fixer/**fixrcomp.txt**\ Contains both (inside) FORTRAN77 source code for program FIX, which allows graphical review and correction (where needed) of data arrays in Laramy; also (outside) IBM Job Control Language (JCL) statements that were used to compile FIX on an IBM 3090 under MVS.\ paleotec/Fixer/**fixclist.txt**\ A command-list (clist) macro to be run from an IBM graphics terminal running TSO, which begins a session of viewing (and correcting?) array values on an IBM 3179G terminal.\ paleotec/Fixer/**basemap.txt**\ Basemap showing present state lines in the western conterminous USA. Format of each line: X in m; Y in m; T/F = Is the pen down when moving to this point?\ paleotec/**Mapper**\ In order to correctly compute boundary conditions on the base of the North American lithosphere in LARAMY, it is necessary to have a dynamic reconstruction of the plates which are now mostly subducted: the Kula, the Farallon (now split into Gorda, Juan de Fuca, and Cocos), and the Vancouver (formerly part of the Farallon). We can use the existing magnetic anomalies on the Pacific plate, the published relative finite-rotations of all the plates, and an assumption of symmetric spreading to determine where many of the magnetic anomalies on these vanished plates would be today if North America had not been in the way, causing them to subduct.\ Program MAP and its associated files in the MAPPER directory were used to create this reconstruction, to edit it, to check that it led to correct boundary conditions on North America, and finally to make color slides for talks.\ paleotec/Mapper/**read_me.5.txt**\ General introduction to all my F-E modeling codes, then focussing in on postprocessor MAP and the input files it needs, and the output it produces.\ paleotec/Mapper/**mapcomp.txt**\ Contains both (inside) FORTRAN77 source code for program MAP, which allows graphical review and correction (where needed) of reconstructed subducted slabs; also (outside) IBM Job Control Language (JCL) statements that were used to compile MAP on an IBM 3090 under MVS.\ paleotec/Mapper/**mapclist.txt**\ A command-list (clist) macro to be run from an IBM graphics terminal running TSO, which begins a session of viewing (and correcting?) reconstructed subducted slabs on an IBM 3179G terminal.\ paleotec/Mapper/**north90a.txt**\ A Fortran BLOCK DATA program, consisting of PARAMETER, type, DIMENSION, COMMON, and (especially) DATA statements which store information of the relative motions of the plates, their fracture zones, their magnetic anomalies, the locations of triple junctions between them and North America, and the positions of slab-hingelines (volcanic-arc-fronts) beneath America from 85 Ma (late Cretaceous) to present. This particular file assumes Engebretson et al. [1985]'s "Northern option", that the Kula-Farallon Ridge intersected North America near the Canadian/U.S. border. Parts of this file were created by hand; other parts were created with MAP and may be edited the same way.\ paleotec/Mapper/**nconst27.txt**\ File #27 in a family of files of "construction lines" = lines and points attached to particular oceanic plates, which may be fracture zones, magnetic anomalies, or any feature you wish to mark. This file is for the "Northern option" (see file above), as marked by its first letter "N". While the first file of this family (NCONST01) contained only existing anomalies on the Pacific plate, this file also contains many reconstructed features on other plates, which are model-dependent.\ paleotec/Mapper/**north90a.txt**\ A Fortran BLOCK DATA program, consisting of PARAMETER, type, DIMENSION, COMMON, and (especially) DATA statements which store information of the relative motions of the plates, their fracture zones, their magnetic anomalies, the locations of triple junctions between them and North America, and the positions of slab-hingelines (volcanic-arc-fronts) beneath America from 85 Ma (late Cretaceous) to present. This particular file assumes Engebretson et al. [1985]'s "Northern option", that the Kula-Farallon Ridge intersected North America near the Canadian/U.S. border. Parts of this file were created by hand; other parts were created with MAP and may be edited the same way.\ paleotec/Mapper/**sconst25.txt**\ File #25 in a family of files of "construction lines" = lines and points attached to particular oceanic plates, which may be fracture zones, magnetic anomalies, or any feature you wish to mark. This file is for the "Southern option" (see above), as marked by its first letter "S". While the first files in this family (SCONST01, NCONST01) contained only existing anomalies on the Pacific plate, this file also contains many reconstructed features on other plates, which are model-dependent.\ paleotec/Fixer/**basemap.txt**\ Basemap showing present state lines in the western conterminous USA. Format of each line: X in m; Y in m; T/F = Is the pen down when moving to this point?\ paleotec/**Laramy2AI**\ Most modern of the 3 graphics options for post-processing of LARAMY models (Grafic, Versatec, Laramy2AI). Reads a LARAMY output file and produces selected maps at a selected timestep in device-independent .AI (Adobe Illustrator) format.\ paleotec/Laramy2AI/**Read_me.0.txt**\ General introduction to all my F-E modeling codes, then focusing in on postprocessor Laramy2AI and the input files it needs, and the output it produces.\ paleotec/Laramy2AI/**Laramy2AI.F90.txt**\ Fortran 90 source code for program Laramy2AI.\ paleotec/Laramy2AI/**Laramy2AI.exe**\ Executable of program Laramy2AI, compiled for Windows 95 or Windows NT. (Probably also works on later Windows 10, 11, ...).\ paleotec/Laramy2AI/**LanModel.ai**\ A small "template" file in .AI (Adobe Illustrator) format that will be expanded when Laramy2AI is run to map the solution(s).\ paleotec/Laramy2AI/**in9003.txt**\ Input parameter file for LARAMY model 90-03. Note plot-control lines beginning with line 78 that control which variables are plotted, at which timestep.\ paleotec/Laramy2AI/**cord11n.txt**\ Dataset of initial conditions (with a continuous Cretaceous cordillera) read by Laramy to initialize its simulation at 85 Ma. Included here to give you something to try plotting.\ paleotec/Fixer/**basemap.txt**\ Basemap showing present state lines in the western conterminous USA. Format of each line: X in m; Y in m; T/F = Is the pen down when moving to this point?\ paleotec/**Atlas_of_model_89-28**\ Collections of graphics file from preferred LARAMY model 89-28 output from Grafic, and photographed off the terminal screen. Each image includes some distortion around the margins because the terminal screen was not flat!\ paleotec/Atlas_of_model_89-28/**plate_reconstructions**\ A set of 48 sequential JPG images showing how the subducted Farallon plate (under North America) was reconstructed with utility program Mapper. The first set of images describe the "Northern option" model for the location of the Kula-Farallon spreading ridge; the second set of images described the "Southern option." paleotec/Atlas_of_model_98-28/**Cretaceous_cordillera**\ A set of 12 JPG images describing the initial condition for LARAMY model 89-28, with a Cretaceous cordillera along the coast at 85 Ma. Different scalar & vector variables are identified in filenames. Units indicated on each map are CGS metric units, with dimensions in cm, velocities in cm/s, and vertically-integrated stress anomalies (VISA) in dyne/cm.\ paleotec/Atlas_of_model_98-28/**model_89-28_graphics**\ A set of 99 JPG images showing the evolution of the preferred model of Bird [1992]. Variable displayed and geologic time are identified in each filename. Units indicated on each map are CGS metric units, with dimensions in cm, velocities in cm/s, and vertically-integrated stress anomalies (VISA) in dyne/cm. **PB2002**\ Plate-tectonic model PB2002 for Earth today, with 52 rigid plates, 12 non-rigid orogens, plate boundary locations, and relative Euler rotation-rate vectors [Bird, 2003].\ PB2002/**2001GC000252_readme.txt**\ Introductory file in the electronic supplement to Bird [2003], describing contents and uses of all files included.\ PB2002/**PB2002_boundaries.dig.txt**\ Polylines in .DIG format (see top-level 00_FILE_FORMATS); each is labelled with 2 two-character abbreviated plate names (see Table 1 in Bird [2003]), and describes their common boundary. Characters "/" and "\\" represent subduction zone polarities.\ PB2002/**PB2002_orogens.dig.txt**\ Polylines in .DIG format that surround the 12 orogen regions (in which the plate model is either incomplete, or inapplicable).\ PB2002/**PB2002_plates.dig.txt**\ One closed polyline encircling each of the 52 plates; needed for computations of plate area, or for graphical presentations where each plate gets a different color.\ PB2002/**PB2002_poles.dat.txt**\ Table of Euler poles describing relative rotation of each plate with respect to the Pacific plate. Columns are: plate name; pole N_latitude; pole E_longitude; CCW rotation rate (degree/m.y.); short citation for source. Similar to Table 1 in Bird [2003].\ PB2002/**PB2002_steps.dat**\ A plate boundary "step" is the short great-circle arc between 2 digitized control points (in files above). This table contains additional information about each step such as step length and azimuth, relative plate velocity and azimuth, dextral strike-slip rate, opening rate, elevation, age of seafloor, and type of plate boundary. See Table 2 in Bird [2003] for explicit format description.\ PB2002/**PB2002_tectonic_zones.grd.txt**\ This global grid of (integer) tectonic zones was not described in Bird [2003]; instead it was described and used in Kagan et al. [2010]. This is an experimental addition, and may not be reliable in detail. **PseudoCSEP**\ An experimental program designed to test earthquake forecasts by statistical methods similar to those used at CSEP = Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability. However, it OMITS certain features of CSEP tests that are questionable, such as randomization of earthquake locations, declustering, and any distinctions between mainshocks and aftershocks. Therefore, these tests should only be applied to forecasts of total seismicity, not forecasts restricted to mainshocks. These tests are also limited to stationary forecasts that use a single magnitude bin (all above threshold).\ PseudoCSEP/**PseudoCSEP.f90.txt**\ Fortran 90 source code, which requires either the IMSL (International Mathematics Subroutine Library) library or the Intel MKL-VSL library to compile.\ PseudoCSEP/**PseudoCSEP-Win32par.exe** and **PseudoCSEP-Win64par.exe**\ Executables for 32-bit and 64-bit Windows, respectively. Both execute in parallel, so see next file below...\ PseudoCSEP/**each_WinNNpar.EXE_requires_one_DLL.txt**\ A reminder that parallel execution in Windows requires access to the proper redistributable DLL = Dynamic Link Library. **ReframeGPS**\ A simple utility program that can change the velocity reference frame of a .GPS dataset (see top-level 00_FILE_FORMATS above), by applying the Euler rotation-rate vector that connects the old plate-reference-frame to the new plate-reference-frame. Note that this operation does not change the individual station names, station coordinates, or uncertainties (because the reframing step is assumed to be error-free). Only the horizontal velocity vectors at each station will be changed.\ ReframeGPS/**ReframeGPS.f90.txt**\ Fortran 90 source code. Requires module DSphere.f90 from top-level folder MapTools to compile.\ ReframeGPS/**ReframeGPS-Win32seq.exe** and **ReframeGPS-Win64seq.exe**\ Executables for 32-bit and 64-bit Windows, respectively. Interactive; user will be prompted for a .GPS filename and information on the desired relative rotation. **REQUIRED_DLL_files**\ Contains 2 versions of the older Intel redistributable DLL = Dynamic Link Library that supports parallel execution under Windows 10+. An important NOTE is that this older software may fail if you try to run 2 parallel codes at the same time. Therefore, Intel recommends newer versions. However, I don't like the newer versions because they required multiple DLLs, not just one.\ REQUIRED_DLL_files/**Win32** and **Win64**\ Duplicate folders for 32-bit and 64-bit Windows, respectively (except that the version of the DLL provided is different).\ REQUIRED_DLL_file/Win32/**Win32_DLL_notes.txt**\ Explanation of: when this DLL is needed, which version you need, and where it should be placed.\ REQUIRED_DLL_file/Win32/**libiomp5md.dll**\ The version of the DLL needed for parallel computation under 32-bit Windows. **Restore**\ Codes for paleotectonic kinematic reconstructions (e.g., paleogeologic maps and paleo-fault maps) based on geologic and paleomagnetic and paleostress input datasets. This folder emphasizes the version Restore4 used by Bird & Ingersoll [2022] to restore southwestern North America back to 48 Ma, and includes related utility and graphics programs. (However, this archive does NOT include the input files published as a digital supplement to Bird & Ingersoll [2022], because they are available from Geosphere. Also, this archive does NOT include the thousands of output files {every variable, at every 0.2 m.y. timestep}, because they are too numerous and large.) At the bottom, subfolder "legacy_code" includes the versions Restore2 and RetroMap3 used in the previous Laramide study of Bird [1998(b)], and the subfolder "orogens" includes the input used in that early paper.\ Restore/**Restore4.f90.txt**\ Fortran 90 source code for main application Restore4 (version 4). Note that the first 816 lines of this file include a brief manual (in comment lines). Module DSphere.f90 needed to compile is in top-level folder MapTools. This version uses Intel's MKL = Math Kernel Library to solve large linear systems.\ Restore/**Restore4-Win32par.exe** and **Restore4-Win32par.exe**\ Executables for parallel computation under 32-bit or 64-bit Windows, respectively. See top-level REQUIRED_DLL_files above.\ Restore/**RetroMap4.f90.txt**\ Preprocessor (to plot input files) and postprocessor (to plot output files) associated with modeling program Restore4. Modules DAdobe_Illustrator, DMap_Projections, and DMap_Tools needed to compile are in top-level folder MapTools. Use of Intel's DFLIB is convenient, but not required (as explained at USE statement).\ Restore/**RetroMap4-Win32seq.exe** and **RetroMap4-Win64seq.exe**\ Executables of RetroMap4 for 32-bit and 64-bit Windows, respectively. Runs interactively, allowing user to define the map projection, input file(s), and map contents.\ Restore/**AI7frame.ai**\ A small "template" file in .AI (Adobe Illustrator) format, that will be filled in with a map each time RetroMap4 is run.\ Restore/**c_rst_Summary.f90.txt**\ Utility postprocessor which takes a c.rst output file produced by Restore4 and produces a table showing how well/poorly input data on cross-section lengthening/shortening have been achieved. Four additional columns are added to the right of the existing columns of the c.rst input file: model lengthening/shortening, in km; model error, in km; model error, in sigmas; square of model error in sigmas.\ Restore/**c_rst_Summary-Win32seq.exe** and **c_rst_Summary-Win64seq.exe**\ Executables of c_rst_Summary for 32-bit and 64-bit Windows, respectively.\ Restore/**f_rst_Summary.f90.txt**\ Utility postprocessor which takes an f.rst output file produced by Restore4 and produces a table showing how well/poorly input data on fault offsets have been achieved. Three additional columns are added to the right of the existing columns of the f.rst input file: offset goal, in km; sigma (uncertainty), in km; model offset, in km. These are followed by 3 more columns giving the same information as uniformly-positive numbers, as a convenience when plotting numbers on log-scales.\ Restore/**f_rst_Summary-Win32seq.exe** and **f_rst_Summary-Win64seq.exe**\ Executables of f_rst_Summary for 32-bit and 64-bit Windows, respectively.\ Restore/**p_rst_Summary.f90.txt**\ Utility postprocessor which takes a p.rst output file produced by Restore4 and produces a table showing how well/poorly input data on paleomagnetic latitude and rotation anomalies have been achieved. Six additional columns are added to the right of the existing columns of the p.rst input file: latitude-change goal, in degrees; sigma (uncertainty) of latitude-change goal, in degrees; model latitude-change, in degrees; CCW-rotation goal, in degrees; sigma (uncertainty) of CCW rotation goal, in degrees; model CCW rotation, in degrees.\ Restore/**p_rst_Summary-Win32seq.exe** and **p_rst_Summary-Win64seq.exe**\ Executables of p_rst_Summary for 32-bit and 64-bit Windows, respectively.\ Restore/**legacy_code**\ Programs used by Bird [1998(b)] for kinematic modeling of the Laramide orogeny that formed the Rocky Mountains in the western United States.\ Restore/legacy_code/**Restore2.f90.txt**\ Fortran 90 source code for Restore2 (version 2). Note that first 561 lines are a manual, written in comment lines. To compile, include 3 subprograms from the IMSL = International Mathematics Subroutine Library to solve linear systems, and to compute eigenvalues and eigenvectors of a matrix. (Code presently uses NUMERICAL_LIBRARIES, which was the Digital Visual Fortran version of IMSL; however, other versions of IMSL should work equally well.)\ Restore/legacy_code/**RetroMap2.f90.txt**\ Fortran 90 source code for pre/post-processor graphics program RetroMap2, compatible with modeling program Restore2. Modules DAdobe_Illustrator, DMap_Projections, and DMap_Tools needed to compile are in top-level folder MapTools. Use of Intel's (or Digital's) DFLIB is convenient, but not required (as explained at USE statement).\ Restore/**orogens**\ Orogens (deformed regions) modeled with legacy_code (above). Currently, there is only one example:\ Restore/orogens/**Rocky_Mountain_foreland**\ Input files used in the Bird [1998(b)] study of the Laramide orogeny that formed the Rocky Mountains of the western USA.\ Restore/orogens/Rocky_Mountain_foreland/**fRMF_tab-delimited.txt**\ A large table used to collect published opinions on offset of faults and their times of activity, and ultimately to make editorial decisions regarding offset goals for the Restore model. Note that one-letter codes for the quality of any study (A, B, C) and one-letter codes for the sense of fault offset (P, T, N, D, R, L) are defined at the top of the file. Each new fault is introduced by an arbitrary ID code (e.g., "F0001") and its name and location. This is followed by 4 columns of editorial choices: MaxOffset (in km), Sigma (in km), Began (in Ma), Ended (in Ma). Following this summary line are the literature citations that it is based on: quality code; short citation; MaxOffset (in km), Sigma (in km), Began (in Ma), Ended (in Ma).\ Restore/orogens/Rocky_Mountain_foreland/**fRMF.dat.txt**\ A shorter version of fRMF_tab-delimited.txt, with published-opinion lines deleted, and only editorial-summary lines retained. Input to Restore2.\ Restore/orogens/Rocky_Mountain_foreland/**fRMF.dig.dat**\ Fault traces in .DIG format (see top-level 00_FILE_FORMATS above). Each file has an integer number (e.g., "F0001") that is keyed to files fRMG.dat and fRMF_tab-delimited. Digitization was always left-to-right when looking at the fault trace from the footwall side; digitization direction of vertical strike-slip faults was arbitrary.\ Restore/orogens/Rocky_Mountain_foreland/**cRMF.dat.txt**\ A small input table describing balanced cross-sections in the model domain. Columns are: short citation; long. of W end; lat. of W end; long. of E end; lat. of E end; integer ID code; length now (in km); former length (in km); maximum age of deformation (in Ma); minimum age of deformation (in Ma).\ Restore/orogens/Rocky_Mountain_foreland/**sRMF.dat.txt**\ Input table of paleostress-direction data in the model domain. Columns are: short citation; location; integer ID code; longitude; latitude; azimuth of sigma_1H (degrees); uncertainty in azimuth (degrees); maximum age (in Ma); minimum age (in Ma); code "Window" or "Stage". "Stage means that the sigma_1H applies to the whole age range. "Window" means that the sigma_1H applies sometime within the age range.\ Restore/orogens/Rocky_Mountain_foreland/**RMF_refs.txt**\ Full-length bibliographic citations matching all short-form citations in any of the input files described above.\ Restore/orogens/Rocky_Mountain_foreland/**pRMG.dat.txt**\ Input table of paleomagnetic data in the model domain. Columns defined in lines 222-251 of Restore2.f90. As described in Bird [1998(b)], all paleomagnetic data come from one source: the IAGA database of McElhinny & Lock [1995], which contains further details (e.g., type of magnetization).\ Restore/orogens/Rocky_Mountain_foreland/**RMF7.feg.dat**\ Finite-element grid (.FEG) input to Restore2 for this study. Note that there are no explicit fault elements; in this paleotectonic kinematic model, the strain that occurred on actual mapped faults (fRMF.dat & fRMF.dig) is incorporated into the strain of the continuum elements that contain those fault traces.\ Restore/orogens/Rocky_Mountain_foreland/**RMF7.bcs.txt**\ Velocity boundary conditions to be applied to RMF7.bcs during the Restore2 computation. All nodes mentioned are along the Eastern side, and all are fixed.\ Restore/orogens/Rocky_Mountain_foreland/**Parameters.dat.txt**\ Values of control parameters (input to Restore2) for the preferred model. Meaning (and units) of each parameter described to the right of the value. Also see lines 114-157 in Restore2.f90.\ Restore/orogens/Rocky_Mountain_foreland/**North_American_states.dig.txt**\ Statelines within North America (Canada, USA, Mexico) in .DIG format (see top-level 00_FILE_FORMATS above). Included in plots by RetroMap2 for location reference. **SCEC_Community_Stress_Model**\ SCEC was once the "Southern California Earthquake Center". As of 2025, it is the "Statewide California Earthquake Center" with website at [https://www.scec.org](https://www.scec.org). It supports "community models" of many physical variables relevant to earthquake studies; one of these is the present stress state in southern California. Here I include only my own studies that were "published" by inclusion in their web pages.\ SCEC_Community_Stress_Model/**SCEC_CSM_Read-Me.txt**\ A brief introduction to SCEC, to CSM, and to the difference between stress models and stressing-rate models (both of which are described in this folder).\ SCEC_Community_Stress_Model/**Stress_models_by_Peter_Bird**\ Contains two kinds of model: SHELLS and FlatMaxwell, where the latter builds on the former.\ SCEC_Community_Stress_Model/Stress_models_by_Peter_Bird/**CAVEAT_re_SHELLS_&_FlatMaxwell_models.txt**\ A warning that the stress-sampling grids used to report both models to CSM at SCEC are rather coarse, so they cannot sample the special stress states in the cores of active faults.\ SCEC_Community_Stress_Model/Stress_models_by_Peter_Bird/**1_SHELLS_model**\ A regional (southern California) dynamic neotectonic F-E model computed with SHELLS, which was published only in the form of contract reports to SCEC, and to the CSM.\ SCEC_Community_Stress_Model/Stress_models_by_Peter_Bird/1_SHELLS_model/**1_program**\ Fortran 90 source codes and an executable for Windows.\ SCEC_Community_Stress_Model/Stress_models_by_Peter_Bird/1_SHELLS_model/1_program/**CSM_Report.f90**\ A module of Fortran 90 source code that translates stresses from a SHELLS model into the special reporting format required by CSM at SCEC.\ SCEC_Community_Stress_Model/Stress_models_by_Peter_Bird/1_SHELLS_model/1_program/**SHELLS_for_CSM.f90.txt**\ A version of SHELLS that is slightly modified to call module CSM_Report (above) and produce a file of stress values suitable for submission to CSM at SCEC.\ SCEC_Community_Stress_Model/Stress_models_by_Peter_Bird/1_SHELLS_model/1_program/**SHELLS_for_CSM-Win32seq.exe**\ Executable of the above program for 32-bit Windows.\ SCEC_Community_Stress_Model/Stress_models_by_Peter_Bird/1_SHELLS_model/**2_input_files**\ SCEC_Community_Stress_Model/Stress_models_by_Peter_Bird/1_SHELLS_model/2_input_files/**SHELLS_for_CSM-faulted_expanded_OrbData.feg.txt**\ Finite-element grid file (.FEG) that covers southern California and incorporates all of its active faults.\ SCEC_Community_Stress_Model/Stress_models_by_Peter_Bird/1_SHELLS_model/2_input_files/**CSM_grid.txt**\ A standardised 3-D grid of stress-reporting locations distributed by CSM at SCEC. Columns are: East_longitude (degrees), North_latitude (degrees), depth (km).\ SCEC_Community_Stress_Model/Stress_models_by_Peter_Bird/1_SHELLS_model/**3_output_files**\ SCEC_Community_Stress_Model/Stress_models_by_Peter_Bird/1_SHELLS_model/3_output_files/**CSM2013001.log.txt**\ Human-readable log file produced when running preferred model CSM2013001. Note that parameter values are echoed in this file, near the top.\ SCEC_Community_Stress_Model/Stress_models_by_Peter_Bird/1_SHELLS_model/3_output_files/**fCSM2013001.out.txt**\ Horizontal forces (in N) exerted on the model by the rest of the Earth. South component before East component for each node of the F-E grid; 2.5 nodes per line of file.\ SCEC_Community_Stress_Model/Stress_models_by_Peter_Bird/1_SHELLS_model/3_output_files/**qCSM2013001.out.txt**\ Human-readable "torque report" is an alternative description of forces exerted on the F-E grid by the rest of the Earth. (Not very useful.)\ SCEC_Community_Stress_Model/Stress_models_by_Peter_Bird/1_SHELLS_model/3_output_files/**vCSM2013001.out.txt**\ Long-term-average horizontal velocities of nodes in preferred model CSM2013-001. South component before East component for each node of the F-E grid; 2 nodes per line of file.\ SCEC_Community_Stress_Model/Stress_models_by_Peter_Bird/1_SHELLS_model/3_output_files/**SHELLS_for_CSM_expanded_regridded.txt**\ A copy of the stress report submitted to CSM at SCEC. Note that SCEC provides interactive tools for visualizing every stress model in CSM.\ SCEC_Community_Stress_Model/Stress_models_by_Peter_Bird/1_SHELLS_model/**4_graphics_files**\ A set of 10 .JPG files containing maps of preferred model CSM2013-001. Variable plotted is indicated in filename. (Q = heat-flow; h = fault heave-rate; e = strain-rate; s = stress; s1h = sigma_1H.)\ SCEC_Community_Stress_Model/Stress_models_by_Peter_Bird/**2_FlatMaxwell_model**\ FlatMaxwell is a new F-D/spectral code [Bird, 2015] that creates stress fields satisfying 3-D quasi-static equilibrium (between earthquakes), and fits them by least-squares to a dynamic model (e.g., SHELLS_for_CSM), and to data on principal stress directions from the World Stress Map (or other source).\ SCEC_Community_Stress_Model/Stress_models_by_Peter_Bird/2_FlatMaxwell_model/**1_program**\ SCEC_Community_Stress_Model/Stress_models_by_Peter_Bird/2_FlatMaxwell_model/1_program/**FlatMaxwell.f90.txt**\ Fortan 90 source code for FlatMaxwell.\ SCEC_Community_Stress_Model/Stress_models_by_Peter_Bird/2_FlatMaxwell_model/1_program/**other_source_codes.txt**\ A memo reminding users that other modules needed to compile FlatMaxwell can be found in top-level folder MapTools.\ SCEC_Community_Stress_Model/Stress_models_by_Peter_Bird/2_FlatMaxwell_model/1_program/**FlatMaxwell-Win32par.exe** and **FlatMaxwell-Win64par.exe**\ Executables of a parallelized version of FlatMaxwell for 32-bit and 64-bit Windows, respectively.\ SCEC_Community_Stress_Model/Stress_models_by_Peter_Bird/2_FlatMaxwell_model/1_program/**each_WinNNpar.EXE_requires_one_DLL.txt**\ A reminder that a specific redistributable DLL = Dynamic Link Library must be available to FlatMaxwell when running. See top-level REQUIRED_DLL_files above.\ SCEC_Community_Stress_Model/Stress_models_by_Peter_Bird/2_FlatMaxwell_model/**2_input_files**\ SCEC_Community_Stress_Model/Stress_models_by_Peter_Bird/2_FlatMaxwell_model/2_input_files/**ETOPO5-S_CA_region.grd.txt**\ Topography (at intervals of 5' longitude & latitude; Anonymous [1988]) in the southern California region. See top-level 00_FILE_FORMATS for .GRD format.\ SCEC_Community_Stress_Model/Stress_models_by_Peter_Bird/2_FlatMaxwell_model/2_input_files/**Tape_et_al_2012_seismic_Moho.grd.txt**\ Depth of the seismic Moho (base of crust) according to Tape et al. [2012] in the southern California region. For .GRD format, see top-level 00_FILE_FORMATS above.\ SCEC_Community_Stress_Model/Stress_models_by_Peter_Bird/2_FlatMaxwell_model/2_input_files/**wsm2008.csv**\ Stress-direction data from the World Stress Map of Heidbach et al. [2008], in tab-delimited table format readable by FlatMaxwell.\ SCEC_Community_Stress_Model/Stress_models_by_Peter_Bird/2_FlatMaxwell_model/2_input_files/**CSM_grid.txt**\ A standardised 3-D grid of stress-reporting locations distributed by CSM at SCEC. Columns are: East_longitude (degrees), North_latitude (degrees), depth (km).\ SCEC_Community_Stress_Model/Stress_models_by_Peter_Bird/2_FlatMaxwell_model/2_input_files/**SHELLS_for_CSM_expanded_regridded.txt**\ A copy of the stress report submitted to CSM at SCEC for the SHELLS model. Same as that in subfolder 1_SHELLS_model/3_output_files above.\ SCEC_Community_Stress_Model/Stress_models_by_Peter_Bird/2_FlatMaxwell_model/2_input_files/**North_America_states.dig**\ State lines in Canada, USA, and Mexico in .DIG format. Included for location reference in output graphics.\ SCEC_Community_Stress_Model/Stress_models_by_Peter_Bird/2_FlatMaxwell_model/**3_output_files**\ These output files produced by FlatMaxwell record all the spectral components of a solution. They are not really human-readable. But by loading them back into FlatMaxwell, it is possible to produce any desired graphical output, or a standard-form stress-report to CSM at SCEC, without repeating the (laborious) solution process.\ SCEC_Community_Stress_Model/Stress_models_by_Peter_Bird/2_FlatMaxwell_model/3_output_files/**Notes_on_FlatMaxwell_models.txt**\ Explanation of the differences between the 3 following solution files.\ SCEC_Community_Stress_Model/Stress_models_by_Peter_Bird/2_FlatMaxwell_model/3_output_files/**FlatMaxwell_topoStress_HiResIso0p50.dat.txt**\ Preferred model of topographic stress. Note that topographic stress is only part of total stress; the tectonic component must still be added.\ SCEC_Community_Stress_Model/Stress_models_by_Peter_Bird/2_FlatMaxwell_model/3_output_files/**FlatMaxwell_tectoStress_HiRes043.dat.txt**\ One good model of total stress (= topographic + tectonic). Discussed in Bird [2017].\ SCEC_Community_Stress_Model/Stress_models_by_Peter_Bird/2_FlatMaxwell_model/3_output_files/**FlatMaxwell_tectoStress_HiRes045.dat.txt**\ Alternative model of total stress (= topographic + tectonic). Discussed in Bird [2017].\ SCEC_Community_Stress_Model/Stress_models_by_Peter_Bird/2_FlatMaxwell_model/**4_graphics**\ A set of 29 map and/or cross-section views of FlatMaxwell solutions (in .JPG format) from the 3 output files listed above. First part of filename identifies the solution; second part identifies variable(s) plotted.\ SCEC_Community_Stress_Model/**Stressing-rate_models_by_Peter_Bird**\ Model(s) of the time-derivative of stress during years when there are no major earthquakes.\ SCEC_Community_Stress_Model/Stressing-rate_models_by_Peter_Bird/**NeoKinema**\ Model(s) whose long-term fault offset rates come from the preferred NeoKinema solution of Bird [2014].\ SCEC_Community_Stress_Model/Stressing-rate_models_by_Peter_Bird/NeoKinema/**NeoKinema_stressing-rate_model_READ_ME.txt**\ Explanation of where to find the stressing-rate model that Elizabeth Hearn created based on the fault offset rates of Bird [2014]. **Seismicity**\ An interactive utility to select earthquakes from any of 10 published catalogs based on year, longitude, latitude, depth, & magnitude. Outputs a subcatalog in .EQC format (see top-level 00_FILE_FORMATS above). There is an option to also produce a map of selected earthquakes in .AI (Adobe Illustrator) format.\ Seismicity/**Seismicity.f90.txt**\ Fortran 90 source code for utility Seismicity. Modules DAdobe_Illustrator, DMap_Projections, and DMap_Tools needed to compile are in top-level folder MapTools. Use of Intel's (or Digital's) DFLIB is convenient, but not required (as explained at USE statement).\ Seismicity/**Seismicity-Win32seq.exe** and **Seismicity-Win64seq.exe**\ Executables for 32-bit and 64-bit Windows, respectively. Runs interactively, taking keyboard input to define selection process.\ Seismicity/**GCMT_1976_through_2023.ndk.txt**\ Example of one possible source catalog: The Global Centroid Moment Tensor catalog of Dziewonski et al. [1981] and Ekstrom et al. [2012]. Note that .NDK format is defined on the GCMT web site: [https://globalCMT.org](https://globalCMT.org).\ Seismicity/**AI7frame.ai** A small "template" file in .AI (Adobe Illustrator) format which will be filled with a map of earthquakes by Seismicity (if that option is chosen). **SeismicityGRD_2_EQC**\ A utility program for generating one (or more) synthetic seismic catalogs of shallow earthquakes, expressed in .EQC catalog format, based on a long-term forecast of shallow seismicity in .GRD format. See top-level folder 00_FILE_FORMATS for .GRD and .EQC format descriptions. Note that this is a simple Poissonian forecast in which the events have no clustering in time (i.e., no aftershock sequences).\ SeismicityGRD_2_EQC/**SeismicityGRD_2_EQC.f90.txt**\ Fortran 90 source code. Requires a random-number-generator utility; examples of USE of IMSL = International Mathematics Subroutine Library or Intel's MKL = Math Kernel Library are given at the top of the file.\ SeismicityGRD_2_EQC/**SeismicityGRD_2_EQC-Win32seq.exe** and **SeismicityGRD_2_EQC-Win64seq.exe**\ Executables for 32-bit and 64-bit Windows, respectively. **SHIFT_GSRM**\ A global long-term forecast [Bird et al., 2010] of shallow seismicity based on the principles of SHIFT = Seismic Hazard Inferred From Tectonics [Bird & Liu, 2007], applied to the global geodetic (and plate-tectonic) strain-rate model GSRM = Global Strain Rate Map of Kreemer et al. [2003]. Note that, for most purposes, this 2010 model has been superceded by our 2015 model presented in the next top-level folder, SHIFT_GSRM2.\ SHIFT_GSRM/**SRL-2010-0267.htm**\ Introduction to the electronic supplement of Bird et al. [2010], explaining contents of most files in this folder.\ SHIFT_GSRM/**SHIFT_GSRM.f90.txt**\ Fortran 90 source code to create the first version of this forecast, in which the output is a gridded-seismicity (.GRD) file with a threshold magnitude. The output .GRD file contains earthquake rate densities (epicentroids per second per square meter), so in this format the forecast is independent of any time-window.\ SHIFT_GSRM/**SHIFT_GSRM_for_CSEP.f90.txt**\ SHIFT_GSRM_for_CSEP applies the same logic to the same data, but produces output in the format of the Global Testing Region experiment at the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). A feature of the CSEP format is that the forcast must be for a specific year, and describe the number of earthquakes expected in each cell. This value is easily obtained from the other format: just multiply by cell area and by seconds-per-year.\ SHIFT_GSRM/**average_strain.dat.txt**\ Input strain-rates from version 1.2 of the Global Strain Rate Map of Kreemer et al. [2003]. Columns include: North latitude, East longitude, e_xx, e_yy, e_xy. (The last 3 are components of the symmetrical 3x3 strain-rate tensor in the horizontal plane.) There are also 6 more columns that are filled with zeros and not useful.\ SHIFT_GSRM/**tectonic_areas.dat**\ Defines quadrilaterals (in longitude/latitude space) which collectively make up each of the four deformation regimes defined by Kreemer et al. (2002). The following abbreviations are used: C = Continental, O = diffuse Oceanic, R = Ridge-transform, and S = Subduction. Each quadrilateral is represented by 5 corner points (the last being the same as the first), which are quoted in counterclockwise order. Longitudes are positive to the East, and latitudes are positive to the North. Areas not covered by any of these quadrilaterals are Intraplate areas.\ SHIFT_GSRM/**SHIFT_GSRM_parameters.dat.txt**\ A short list of 7 parameters (named in the file) required by CSEP format. Note that these parameters produce a forecast for the specific year 2012, but that the logic of SHIFT_GSRM does not confine the validity of our forecast to any specific time-window.\ SHIFT_GSRM/**SHIFT_GSRM_forecast_grids.zip**\ A compressed archive (&lt;2 MB) which contains two forecast grid files (each 64 MB when uncompressed) produced by SHIFT_GSRM: GSRM_SHIFT_0p6x0p5flat_4factors_m5p66.grd is the forecast for threshold moment-magnitude 5.66; GSRM_SHIFT_0p6x0p5flat_4factors_m8.grd is the forecast for threshold moment-magnitude 8.00. **SHIFT_GSRM2**\ A revised global long-term forecast [Bird & Kreemer, 2015(a), (b)] of shallow seismicity based on the principles of SHIFT = Seismic Hazard Inferred From Tectonics [Bird & Liu, 2007], applied to (much-improved) version 2.1 of the global geodetic (and plate-tectonic) strain-rate model GSRM = Global Strain Rate Map of Kreemer et al. [2014].\ SHIFT_GSRM2/**SHIFT_GSRM2x.f90.txt**\ Fortran 90 source code to create the first version of this forecast, in which the output is a gridded-seismicity (.GRD) file with a threshold magnitude. The character "x" in the filename indicates that 6 different versions (increasingly sophisticated) can be produced: x = a, b, c, d, e, f (with model f preferred). The output .GRD file contains earthquake rate densities (epicentroids per second per square meter), so in this format the forecast is independent of any time-window. Note that module Sphere.f90 needed to compile is in top-level folder MapTools. Requires a random-number-generator utility; examples of USE of IMSL = International Mathematics Subroutine Library or Intel's MKL = Math Kernel Library are given at the top of the file.\ SHIFT_GSRM2/**SHIFT_GSRM2x-Win32seq.exe** and **SHIFT_GSRM2x-Win64seq.exe**\ Executables of SHIFT_GSRM2x for 32-bit and 64-bit Windows, respectively.\ SHIFT_GSRM2/**SHIFT_GSRM2x_for_CSEP.f90.txt**\ SHIFT_GSRM2x_for_CSEP applies the same logic to the same data, but produces output in the format of the Global Testing Region experiment at the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). A feature of the CSEP format is that the forcast must be for a specific year, and describe the number of earthquakes expected in each cell. This value is easily obtained from the other format: just multiply by cell area and by seconds-per-year. See compilation/linkage notes above under version SHIFT_GSRM2x.f90.\ SHIFT_GSRM2/**SHIFT_GSRM2x_for_CSEP-Win32seq.exe** and **SHIFT_GSRM2x_for_CSEP-Win64seq.exe**\ Executables of SHIFT_GSRM2x_for_CSEP for 32-bit and 64-bit Windows, respectively.\ SHIFT_GSRM2/**GSRM_average_strain_v2.1.txt.Z**\ Compressed version 2.1 of the Global Strain Rate Map of Kreemer et al. [2014]. See content notes under SHIFT_GSRM/average_strain.dat.txt in folder above.\ SHIFT_GSRM2/**GCMT_shallow_m5p767_1977-2013.eqc.txt**\ Global Centroid Moment Tensor earthquake catalog for shallow (depth &lt; 70 km) centroids with m5.767+ during 1977-2013. Used for overall calibration of the forecast. Note that .EQC format is defined in top-level folder 00_FILE_FORMATS above.\ **Additional input files**: **PB2002_steps.dat** and **PB2002_tectonic_zones.grd** are in top-level folder PB2002; **underwater.grd** is in top-level folder Kagan_2009_GJI_I_scores.\ SHIFT_GSRM2/**SHIFT_GSRM2f_parameters.txt**\ A short list of 10 parameters (named in the file) required by CSEP format. Note that these parameters produce a forecast for the specific year 2014, but that the logic of SHIFT_GSRM2x does not confine the validity of our forecast to any specific time-window.\ SHIFT_GSRM2/**2801_SHIFT_GSRM2f_5p767_2014plus.jpg** and **2803_SHIFT_GSRM2f_7p00_2014plus.jpg** and **2805_SHIFT_GSRM2f_8p00_2014plus.jpg**\ Three global Mercator maps of epicentroid rate densities from SHIFT_GSRM2f, with thresholds m5.767+, m7.00+, and m8.00+, respectively. **Slippery**\ A statistical-analysis program [Bird, 2007] that finds the probability density function (PDF) for the offset rate of each fault in a regional database. In the first step, each dated offset feature is analyzed separately: (1) the PDF for the offset is modeled; (2) the PDF for the age of the feature is modeled; (3) these are convolved to get the PDF of offset rate. In the second step, the PDFs for offset rate from all the dated offset features on one fault (or fault train) are combined, in a way that acknowledges a small chance of fundamental error in each datum. In a final step, the a-priori PDFs (one for each fault type) of offset-rate for any faults that lack dated offset features is estimated, using the entire dataset. This Slippery analysis is a critical step in preparing input data on fault offset rates for kinematic neotectonic F-E code NeoKinema [e.g., Bird, 2009; 2014].\ Slippery/**Slippery.f90.txt**\ Fortran 90 source code, which contains function calls that will draw graphics in the screen as the program runs. This requires "USE DFLIB" where "DFLIB" is presumably the old Digital Fortran Library, carried over into the Intel Fortran Compiler(?). As noted in comments, "USE IFQWin", where "IFQWin" presumably stands for Intel Fortran Quick-Windows library, may be another solution.\ Slippery/**Slippery-Win32seq.exe** and **Slippery-Win64seq.exe**\ Executables for 32-bit and 64-bit Windows, respectively. This program runs interactively, showing the user MANY temporary screen-plots of PDFs to help create understanding of the process.\ Slippery/**f_format-sample.txt**\ A tutorial file illustrating how input data on dated offset features should be assembled (typically, in a spreadsheet). Note that ONLY the lines AFTER the horizontal divider ("=======") will remain in the file that is finally sent to Slippery; the tutorial lines (the first 30 lines) should be deleted. Because fault names and localities contain commas, this information must be saved as Tab-Delimited .TXT (NOT as .csv).\ Slippery/**f_Gorda-Cal-Nev.txt**\ Input data to Slippery from faults in the Gorda-California-Nevada orogen defined by Bird [2003]. See file above for formatting. This input led to Table 1 in Bird [2007].\ Slippery/**references_cited_in_Table_1.txt**\ Full bibliographic citations to match the short-form citations in the input file above.\ Slippery/**f_GCN_Bird2007_Table1.dig.txt**\ Digitized fault traces for each of the fault-trace codes (e.g. "F0008") appearing in f_Gorda-Cal-Nev.txt. Although these traces are NOT read by Slippery, they are essential to defining the faults that are being studied, because (unfortunately) fault names are not standardized or uniform in the geologic literature. (This file will also be needed by NeoKinema.) For explanation of .DIG format, see top-level folder 00_FILE_FORMATS.\ Slippery/**PDFs_for_L_in_GCN_orogen.txt**\ This file is an output from Slippery after it has analyzed a regional database. (See step #3 above under this folder description.) It can also be read by Slippery to initialize a regional computation. In fact, this file improves in quality if that input/analysis/output cycle is repeated several times (e.g, 3 times). What the file contains is 6 matched PDFs and CDFs (for each of the fault-offset types: D, L, N, P, R, T) giving the inferred a-priori knowledge about fault offset rates in the absence of data. The 3 columns are: offset rate (mm/a); PDF of offset rate; CDF of offset rate. The file contains 6 sets of graphs, corresponding to the 6 fault-offset types.\ Slippery/**Table_1-tab-delimited.txt**\ Tab-delimited .TXT version of a spreadsheet giving results of running Slippery on the fault database of the Gorda-California-Nevada orogen. Equivalent to Table 1 in Bird [2007]. The columns are labelled in line 4. Note that columns #1~#9 (or A~I in a spreadsheet) represent INPUT to Slippery from f_Gorda-Cal-Nev.txt. Columns #10~#15 (or, J~O) represent results of analysis by Slippery. Each fault modeled is represented by at least 1 line in this file: If that fault had no dated offset features, then the prior PDF for offset-rate of that fault-offset type is returned. If the fault had one or more dated offset features, then there will be one line for each offset feature considered in isolation, plus a final summary line that considers all available constraints on that fault.\ Slippery/**Table_2-tab-delimited.txt**\ Tab-delimited .TXT version of a spreadsheet giving results of running Slippery on dated offset features in the USGS PaleoSites database for California. Equivalent to Table 2 in Bird [2007]. See additional comments under Table_1-tab-delimited.txt above.\ Slippery/**Figure_1.jpg** through **Figure_9.jpg**\ Nine .JPG files matching the 9 Figures in Bird [2007]. See figure captions in that paper. Possibly useful for understanding Slippery, and communicating that understanding to others. **Spherical_Lurch**\ A program to test and display the permanent surface displacements ("lurch") caused by an earthquake dislocation patch (whose map-plane outline is specified in a .DIG input file). This program is "spherical" because all input and output files use (longitude, latitude) coordinates to express locations. An input file with dislocation patches and their slips and rakes is required. The user will specify the desired grid for output. This program will produce a set of 6 GRD files with 3 components of lurch and 3 other descriptors (magnitude, trend, & plunge) of the surface displacement. This code was used by Carafa et al. [2018] to model geodetic displacements expected due to slip on the curved megathrust of the Calabria subduction zone.\ Spherical_Lurch/**Spherical_Lurch.f90.txt**\ Fortran 90 source code. To compile requires other modules: DSphere.f90 from top-level folder MapTools; also DDislocation.f90 and DTriangular.f90 from top-level folder Dislocations.\ Spherical_Lurch/**Spherical_Lurch-Win32.exe** and **Spherical_Lurch-Win64.exe**\ Executables for 32-bit and 64-bit Windows, respectively. NOTE that Spherical_Lurch does not produce any graphics. However, it is easy to plot any of the resulting .GRD files as a colored mosaic layer in NeoKineMap, and the outline of the causitive dislocation patch (in the input .DIG file) can be plotted as a "basemap" overlay at the same time. **XML_2_GRD**\ A utility program to convert a long-term seismicity format in the special .XML format used by CSEP (= Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability) to the .GRD (gridded epicentroid-rate-density) format used in this archive. (See .GRD format in top-level folder 00FILE_FORMATS.) This allows plotting with NeoKineMap, and also allows testing with Kagan_2009_GJI_I_scores and/or PseudoCSEP (see corresponding top-level folders above). The spatial coverage is unchanged; however, a smaller spatial subset could then be selected with utility program Extract_Regional_GRD above in this archive. Note that the conversion from .XML to .GRD loses information, because the .XML format includes the complete frequency/magnitude distribution for each spatial cell, while the .GRD format collapses this to a single number per cell: the total rate density of earthquakes above a given threshold magnitude. Therefore, the input .XML file should not be deleted after this transformation; one cannot go back!\ XML_2_GRD/**XML_2_GRD.f90.txt**\ Fortran 90 source code.\ XML_2_GRD/**XML_2_GRD-Win32seq.exe** and **XML_2_GRD-Win64seq.exe**\ Executables for 32-bit and 64-bit Windows, respectively. # README Part 4: References Cited Anonymous, 1988. 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[1996] Computer simulations of Alaskan neotectonics, Tectonics, 15, 225-236. Bird, P. [1998(a)] Testing hypotheses on plate-driving mechanisms with global lithosphere models including topography, thermal structure, and faults, J. Geophys. Res., 103(B5), 10,115-10,129. Bird, P. [1998(b)] Kinematic history of the Laramide orogeny in latitudes 35-49 N, western United States , Tectonics, 17, 780-801. Bird, P. [1999] Thin-plate and thin-shell finite element programs for forward dynamic modeling of plate deformation and faulting, Computers & Geosciences, 25(4), 383-394. Bird, P. [2002] Stress-direction history of the western United States and Mexico since 85 Ma, Tectonics, 21(3), doi:10.1029/2001TC001319. Bird, P. [2003] An updated digital model of plate boundaries, Geochemistry Geophysics Geosystems, 4(3), 1027, doi:10.1029/2001GC000252, with digital supplements. Bird, P. 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