cometadata/datacite-titles-descriptions-related-identifiers huggingface dataset:
DOI: 10.3886/e113471
title: Replication data for: Interpreting Tests of School VAM Validity

description: We develop over-identification tests that use admissions lotteries to assess the predictive value of regression-based value-added models (VAMs). These tests have degrees of freedom equal to the number of quasi-experiments available to estimate school effects. By contrast, previously implemented VAM validation strategies look at a single restriction only, sometimes said to measure forecast bias. Tests of forecast bias may be misleading when the test statistic is constructed from many lotteries or quasi-experiments, some of which have weak first stage effects on school attendance. The theory developed here is applied to data from the Charlotte-Mecklenberg School district analyzed by Deming (2014).
DOI: 10.7910/dvn/ttl5lq/rvzhtk
title: study 1 data.tab

description: :unav
DOI: 10.3886/e112772
title: Replication data for: Year-End Tax Planning of Top Management: Evidence from High-Frequency Payroll Data

description: Using Danish high-frequency payroll data and tax reform variation, we detect year-end tax avoidance among top managers. Five to seven percent of top managers exploit year-end tax planning strategies to save taxes. Around 30 percent of the top managers engaging in year-end tax avoidance do so by retiming bonus payments while the rest shift regular wage income. However, bonus timing is most tax-sensitive. When considering all of the top managers receiving a December bonus, we find that more than one-quarter retime the bonus payment, whereas only 5 percent of those not receiving a bonus shift regular wage income.
DOI: 10.3886/e112772v1
title: Replication data for: Year-End Tax Planning of Top Management: Evidence from High-Frequency Payroll Data

description: Using Danish high-frequency payroll data and tax reform variation, we detect year-end tax avoidance among top managers. Five to seven percent of top managers exploit year-end tax planning strategies to save taxes. Around 30 percent of the top managers engaging in year-end tax avoidance do so by retiming bonus payments while the rest shift regular wage income. However, bonus timing is most tax-sensitive. When considering all of the top managers receiving a December bonus, we find that more than one-quarter retime the bonus payment, whereas only 5 percent of those not receiving a bonus shift regular wage income.
DOI: 10.3886/e112773
title: Replication data for: Macro-perspective on Asset Grants Programs: Occupational and Wealth Mobility

description: We provide a simple quantitative general equilibrium model of occupational choice with credit market frictions to analyze the aggregate and distributional effects of asset transfer programs. Asset transfer programs have a positive but transient effect on aggregate productivity, and a negative impact on the aggregate capital stock. On net they have a negative but small effect on per capita income. The effects are very heterogeneous across treated individuals. We compare the results in our model to those from recent randomized control trials and historical natural experiments.
DOI: 10.3886/e112773v1
title: Replication data for: Macro-perspective on Asset Grants Programs: Occupational and Wealth Mobility

description: We provide a simple quantitative general equilibrium model of occupational choice with credit market frictions to analyze the aggregate and distributional effects of asset transfer programs. Asset transfer programs have a positive but transient effect on aggregate productivity, and a negative impact on the aggregate capital stock. On net they have a negative but small effect on per capita income. The effects are very heterogeneous across treated individuals. We compare the results in our model to those from recent randomized control trials and historical natural experiments.
DOI: 10.3886/e112774v1
title: Replication data for: Agricultural Productivity Differences across Countries

description: Recent studies argue that cross-country labor productivity differences are much larger in agriculture than in the aggregate. We reexamine the agricultural productivity data underlying this conclusion using new evidence from disaggregate sources. We find that for the world's staple grains—maize, rice, and wheat—cross-country differences in the quantity of grain produced per worker are enormous according to both micro- and macrosources. Our findings validate the idea that understanding agricultural productivity is at the heart of understanding world income inequality.
DOI: 10.3886/e112775
title: Replication data for: A Reassessment of Real Business Cycle Theory

description: During the downturn of 2008–2009, output and hours fell significantly, but labor productivity rose. These facts have led many to conclude that there is a significant deviation between observations and current macrotheories that assume business cycles are driven, at least in part, by fluctuations in total factor productivities of firms. We show that once investment in intangible capital is included in the analysis, there is no inconsistency. Measured labor productivity rises if the fall in output is underestimated; this occurs when there are large unmeasured intangible investments. Microevidence suggests that these investments are large and cyclically important.
DOI: 10.3886/e112775v1
title: Replication data for: A Reassessment of Real Business Cycle Theory

description: During the downturn of 2008–2009, output and hours fell significantly, but labor productivity rose. These facts have led many to conclude that there is a significant deviation between observations and current macrotheories that assume business cycles are driven, at least in part, by fluctuations in total factor productivities of firms. We show that once investment in intangible capital is included in the analysis, there is no inconsistency. Measured labor productivity rises if the fall in output is underestimated; this occurs when there are large unmeasured intangible investments. Microevidence suggests that these investments are large and cyclically important.
DOI: 10.3886/e112968
title: Replication data for: Efficient Firm Dynamics in a Frictional Labor Market

description: We develop and analyze a labor market model in which heterogeneous firms operate under decreasing returns and compete for labor by posting long-term contracts. Firms achieve faster growth by offering higher lifetime wages, which allows them to fill vacancies with higher probability, consistent with recent empirical findings. The model also captures several other regularities about firm size, job flows, and pay, and generates sluggish aggregate dynamics of labor market variables. In contrast to existing bargaining models with large firms, efficiency obtains and the model allows a tractable characterization over the business cycle. (JEL E24, J64, L11)
DOI: 10.3886/e112969
title: Replication data for: The Determinants and Welfare Implications of US Workers' Diverging Location Choices by Skill: 1980-2000

description: From 1980 to 2000, the rise in the US college/high school graduate wage gap coincided with increased geographic sorting as college graduates concentrated in high wage, high rent cities. This paper estimates a structural spatial equilibrium model to determine causes and welfare consequences of this increased skill sorting. While local labor demand changes fundamentally caused the increased skill sorting, it was further fueled by endogenous increases in amenities within higher skill cities. Changes in cities' wages, rents, and endogenous amenities increased inequality between high school and college graduates by more than suggested by the increase in the college wage gap alone. (JEL D31, I26, J24, J31, J61, R23)
DOI: 10.3886/e112969v1
title: Replication data for: The Determinants and Welfare Implications of US Workers' Diverging Location Choices by Skill: 1980-2000

description: From 1980 to 2000, the rise in the US college/high school graduate wage gap coincided with increased geographic sorting as college graduates concentrated in high wage, high rent cities. This paper estimates a structural spatial equilibrium model to determine causes and welfare consequences of this increased skill sorting. While local labor demand changes fundamentally caused the increased skill sorting, it was further fueled by endogenous increases in amenities within higher skill cities. Changes in cities' wages, rents, and endogenous amenities increased inequality between high school and college graduates by more than suggested by the increase in the college wage gap alone. (JEL D31, I26, J24, J31, J61, R23)
DOI: 10.3886/e112970
title: Replication data for: Media Influences on Social Outcomes: The Impact of MTV's 16 and Pregnant on Teen Childbearing

description: This paper explores the impact of the introduction of the widely viewed MTV reality show 16 and Pregnant on teen childbearing. Our main analysis relates geographic variation in changes in teen childbearing rates to viewership of the show. We implement an instrumental variables (IV) strategy using local area MTV ratings data from a pre-period to predict local area 16 and Pregnant ratings. The results imply that this show led to a 4.3 percent reduction in teen births. An examination of Google Trends and Twitter data suggest that the show led to increased interest in contraceptive use and abortion. (JEL D12, J13, J16, L82, Z13)
DOI: 10.3886/e112970v1
title: Replication data for: Media Influences on Social Outcomes: The Impact of MTV's 16 and Pregnant on Teen Childbearing

description: This paper explores the impact of the introduction of the widely viewed MTV reality show 16 and Pregnant on teen childbearing. Our main analysis relates geographic variation in changes in teen childbearing rates to viewership of the show. We implement an instrumental variables (IV) strategy using local area MTV ratings data from a pre-period to predict local area 16 and Pregnant ratings. The results imply that this show led to a 4.3 percent reduction in teen births. An examination of Google Trends and Twitter data suggest that the show led to increased interest in contraceptive use and abortion. (JEL D12, J13, J16, L82, Z13)
DOI: 10.3886/e112971
title: Replication data for: Medicaid Insurance in Old Age

description: The old age provisions of the Medicaid program were designed to insure retirees against medical expenses. We estimate a structural model of savings and medical spending and use it to compute the distribution of lifetime Medicaid transfers and Medicaid valuations across currently single retirees. Compensating variation calculations indicate that current retirees value Medicaid insurance at more than its actuarial cost, but that most would value an expansion of the current Medicaid program at less than its cost. These findings suggest that for current single retirees, the Medicaid program may be of the approximately right size.
DOI: 10.3886/e112971v1
title: Replication data for: Medicaid Insurance in Old Age

description: The old age provisions of the Medicaid program were designed to insure retirees against medical expenses. We estimate a structural model of savings and medical spending and use it to compute the distribution of lifetime Medicaid transfers and Medicaid valuations across currently single retirees. Compensating variation calculations indicate that current retirees value Medicaid insurance at more than its actuarial cost, but that most would value an expansion of the current Medicaid program at less than its cost. These findings suggest that for current single retirees, the Medicaid program may be of the approximately right size.
DOI: 10.3886/e112972v1
title: Replication data for: State Capacity and Economic Development: A Network Approach

description: We study the direct and spillover effects of local state capacity in Colombia. We model the determination of state capacity as a network game between municipalities and the national government. We estimate this model exploiting the municipality network and the roots of local state capacity related to the presence of the colonial state and royal roads. Our estimates indicate that local state capacity decisions are strategic complements. Spillover effects are sizable, accounting for about 50 percent of the quantitative impact of an expansion in local state capacity, but network effects driven by equilibrium responses of other municipalities are much larger. (JEL D85, H41, H77, O17, O18)
DOI: 10.3886/e113210
title: Replication data for: Targeting with In-Kind Transfers: Evidence from Medicaid Home Care

description: Making a transfer in kind reduces its value to recipients but can improve targeting. We develop an approach to quantifying this trade-off and apply it to home care. Using randomized experiments by Medicaid, we find that in-kind provision significantly reduces the value of the transfer to recipients while targeting a small fraction of the eligible population that is sicker and has fewer informal caregivers than the average eligible. Under a wide range of assumptions within a standard model, the targeting benefit exceeds the distortion cost. This highlights an important cost of recent reforms toward more flexible benefits.
DOI: 10.3886/e113210v1
title: Replication data for: Targeting with In-Kind Transfers: Evidence from Medicaid Home Care

description: Making a transfer in kind reduces its value to recipients but can improve targeting. We develop an approach to quantifying this trade-off and apply it to home care. Using randomized experiments by Medicaid, we find that in-kind provision significantly reduces the value of the transfer to recipients while targeting a small fraction of the eligible population that is sicker and has fewer informal caregivers than the average eligible. Under a wide range of assumptions within a standard model, the targeting benefit exceeds the distortion cost. This highlights an important cost of recent reforms toward more flexible benefits.
DOI: 10.3886/e113211
title: Replication data for: Does Trade Cause Growth?

description: Examining the correlation between trade and income cannot identify the direction of causation between the two. Countries' geographic characteristics, however, have important effects on trade and are plausibly uncorrelated with other determinants of income. This paper, therefore, constructs measures of the geographic component of countries' trade and uses those measures to obtain instrumental variables estimates of the effect of trade on income. The results provide no evidence that ordinary least-squares estimates overstate the effects of trade. Further, they suggest that trade has a quantitatively large and robust, though only moderately statistically significant, positive effect on income.
DOI: 10.3886/e113211v1
title: Replication data for: Does Trade Cause Growth?

description: Examining the correlation between trade and income cannot identify the direction of causation between the two. Countries' geographic characteristics, however, have important effects on trade and are plausibly uncorrelated with other determinants of income. This paper, therefore, constructs measures of the geographic component of countries' trade and uses those measures to obtain instrumental variables estimates of the effect of trade on income. The results provide no evidence that ordinary least-squares estimates overstate the effects of trade. Further, they suggest that trade has a quantitatively large and robust, though only moderately statistically significant, positive effect on income.
DOI: 10.3886/e113212
title: Replication data for: Federal Reserve Information and the Behavior of Interest Rates

description: This paper tests for the existence of asymmetric information between the Federal Reserve and the public by examining Federal Reserve and commercial inflation forecasts. It demonstrates that the Federal Reserve has considerable information about inflation beyond what is known to commercial forecasters. It also shows that monetary-policy actions provide signals of the Federal Reserve's information and that commercial forecasters modify their forecasts in response to those signals. These findings may explain why long-term interest rates typically rise in response to shifts to tighter monetary policy.
DOI: 10.3886/e113212v1
title: Replication data for: Federal Reserve Information and the Behavior of Interest Rates

description: This paper tests for the existence of asymmetric information between the Federal Reserve and the public by examining Federal Reserve and commercial inflation forecasts. It demonstrates that the Federal Reserve has considerable information about inflation beyond what is known to commercial forecasters. It also shows that monetary-policy actions provide signals of the Federal Reserve's information and that commercial forecasters modify their forecasts in response to those signals. These findings may explain why long-term interest rates typically rise in response to shifts to tighter monetary policy.
DOI: 10.3886/e113213
title: Replication data for: Inequality Aversion, Efficiency, and Maximin Preferences in Simple Distribution Experiments: Comment

description: This repository contains data and/or code supplementing the article "Inequality Aversion, Efficiency, and Maximin Preferences in Simple Distribution Experiments: Comment".
DOI: 10.3886/e113213v1
title: Replication data for: Inequality Aversion, Efficiency, and Maximin Preferences in Simple Distribution Experiments: Comment

description: This repository contains data and/or code supplementing the article "Inequality Aversion, Efficiency, and Maximin Preferences in Simple Distribution Experiments: Comment".
DOI: 10.3886/e113215v1
title: Replication data for: Minimax Play at Wimbledon: Comment

description: This repository contains data and/or code supplementing the article "Minimax Play at Wimbledon: Comment".
DOI: 10.3886/e113472
title: Replication data for: Using Lagged Outcomes to Evaluate Bias in Value-Added Models

description: Value-added (VA) models measure agents' productivity based on the outcomes they produce. The utility of VA models for performance evaluation depends on the extent to which VA estimates are biased by selection. One common method of evaluating bias in VA is to test for balance in lagged values of the outcome. We show that such balance tests do not yield robust information about bias in value-added models using Monte Carlo simulations. Even unbiased VA estimates can be correlated with lagged outcomes. More generally, tests using lagged outcomes are uninformative about the degree of bias in misspecified VA models. The source of these results is that VA is itself estimated using historical data, leading to non-transparent correlations between VA and lagged outcomes.
DOI: 10.3886/e113472v1
title: Replication data for: Using Lagged Outcomes to Evaluate Bias in Value-Added Models

description: Value-added (VA) models measure agents' productivity based on the outcomes they produce. The utility of VA models for performance evaluation depends on the extent to which VA estimates are biased by selection. One common method of evaluating bias in VA is to test for balance in lagged values of the outcome. We show that such balance tests do not yield robust information about bias in value-added models using Monte Carlo simulations. Even unbiased VA estimates can be correlated with lagged outcomes. More generally, tests using lagged outcomes are uninformative about the degree of bias in misspecified VA models. The source of these results is that VA is itself estimated using historical data, leading to non-transparent correlations between VA and lagged outcomes.
DOI: 10.3886/e113473
title: Replication data for: How Mortgage Finance Reform Could Affect Housing

description: Although major changes in mortgage finance have occurred since the subprime bust, several issues remain unresolved, centering on the roles of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the FHA. We analyze how some reforms might affect house prices in a framework rich enough to simulate the impact of several reforms which change mortgage interest rates and/or loan-to-value (LTV) ratios of first time home buyers, the key drivers of house prices in recent decades. Simulations suggest that ending the GSE interest rate subsidy would have small effects, while changes in capital requirements or maximum FHA loan size limits would have larger effects.
DOI: 10.3886/e113473v1
title: Replication data for: How Mortgage Finance Reform Could Affect Housing

description: Although major changes in mortgage finance have occurred since the subprime bust, several issues remain unresolved, centering on the roles of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the FHA. We analyze how some reforms might affect house prices in a framework rich enough to simulate the impact of several reforms which change mortgage interest rates and/or loan-to-value (LTV) ratios of first time home buyers, the key drivers of house prices in recent decades. Simulations suggest that ending the GSE interest rate subsidy would have small effects, while changes in capital requirements or maximum FHA loan size limits would have larger effects.
DOI: 10.3886/e112776
title: Replication data for: The Value and Ownership of Intangible Capital

description: Intangible capital which relies on essential human inputs, or "organization capital," presents a unique challenge for measurement. Organization capital cannot be fully owned by firms' financiers, because it is partly embodied in key labor inputs. Instead, cash flows must be shared with key talent and thus neither book nor market values will fully capture its value. Measurement of organization capital requires a model featuring these unique property rights. We use accounting data along with a simple example of such a model to measure the fraction of the US capital stock which is missing from book and market values.
DOI: 10.3886/e112776v1
title: Replication data for: The Value and Ownership of Intangible Capital

description: Intangible capital which relies on essential human inputs, or "organization capital," presents a unique challenge for measurement. Organization capital cannot be fully owned by firms' financiers, because it is partly embodied in key labor inputs. Instead, cash flows must be shared with key talent and thus neither book nor market values will fully capture its value. Measurement of organization capital requires a model featuring these unique property rights. We use accounting data along with a simple example of such a model to measure the fraction of the US capital stock which is missing from book and market values.
DOI: 10.3886/e112777
title: Replication data for: Physician Payment Reform and Hospital Referrals

description: Commercial health insurers in California use provider capitation payments to different extents. These are similar to arrangements introduced by the recent health reforms to give physicians incentives to control costs. In a previous paper we showed that patients whose insurers used capitation incentives traveled further to access lower-priced, similar-quality hospitals than other same-severity patients. This paper predicts the implied effects of a move to widespread capitation. We show that, if the introduction of capitation prompted low-capitation insurers to act like high-capitation insurers, this would generate a 4–5 percent cost saving with some reduction in patient convenience but no reduction in quality.
DOI: 10.3886/e112777v1
title: Replication data for: Physician Payment Reform and Hospital Referrals

description: Commercial health insurers in California use provider capitation payments to different extents. These are similar to arrangements introduced by the recent health reforms to give physicians incentives to control costs. In a previous paper we showed that patients whose insurers used capitation incentives traveled further to access lower-priced, similar-quality hospitals than other same-severity patients. This paper predicts the implied effects of a move to widespread capitation. We show that, if the introduction of capitation prompted low-capitation insurers to act like high-capitation insurers, this would generate a 4–5 percent cost saving with some reduction in patient convenience but no reduction in quality.