DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.4289958
title: Data set: "A 21st Century Warming Threshold for Sustained Greenland Ice Sheet Mass Loss"

description: This data set includes the materials required to reproduce the figures and tables presented in the study: "A 21<sup>st</sup> Century Warming Threshold for Sustained Greenland Ice Sheet Mass Loss". The data consist of: Maps of annual historical and projected surface mass balance (SMB) of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) from RACMO2.3p2 at 1 km spatial resolution in NetCDF format. <strong>smb_rec.1950-2014.BN_RACMO2.3p2-CESM2-Historical.1km.YY.nc</strong>: annual cumulative GrIS SMB (kg m<sup>-2</sup> or mm w.e. per year) from RACMO2.3p2 forced by CESM2 for the historical period 1950-2014, further statistically downscaled to 1 km spatial resolution. <strong>smb_rec.2015-2099.BN_RACMO2.3p2-CESM2-SSP5-85.1km.YY.nc</strong>: annual cumulative GrIS SMB (kg m<sup>-2</sup> or mm w.e. per year) from RACMO2.3p2 forced by CESM2 under a high-end warming scenario SSP5-8.5 for the period 2015-2099, further statistically downscaled to 1 km spatial resolution. <strong>Icemask_Topography_lon_lat_average_1km_GrIS.nc</strong>: mask file including an ice mask (Promicemask) separating Greenland's peripheral glaciers and ice caps (values 1 and 2) from the main ice sheet (value 3), surface topography derived from the GIMP DEM, and longitude/latitude coordinates on the 1 km grid. NB: the NetCDF files above use a Polar Stereographic North (EPSG:3413) projection with a horizontal resolution of 1 km x 1 km. The reference point is located at 45ºW longitude and 70ºN latitude. Time series of historical and projected annual GrIS-integrated SMB (Gigatons or Gt per year) and annual mean GrIS temperature (TGrIS; K) from RACMO2.3p2 at 1 km spatial resolution in ASCII format. <strong>SMB_TGrIS_RACMO2.3p2-CESM2_Historical_1950-2014.dat</strong>: time series of annual GrIS-integrated SMB (Gt yr<sup>-1</sup>) and mean TGrIS (K) from the CESM2-forced RACMO2.3p2 simulation for the historical period 1950-2014. <strong>SMB_TGrIS_RACMO2.3p2-CESM2_SSP5-8.5_2015-2099.dat</strong>: time series of annual GrIS-integrated SMB (Gt yr<sup>-1</sup>) and mean TGrIS (K) from the CESM2-forced RACMO2.3p2 projection under a high-end warming scenario SSP5-8.5 (2015-2099). Time series of historical and projected reconstruction of annual GrIS-integrated SMB (Gt yr<sup>-1</sup>) and mean TGrIS (K) from 12 CESM2 historical members and 10 CESM2 projections under various warming scenarios, namely SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5. <strong>Reconstructed_SMB_CESM2_Historical_1950-2014.dat</strong>: time series of reconstructed annual GrIS-integrated SMB (Gt yr<sup>-1</sup>) from the parent historical CESM2 simulation (HIST-parent) used to force RACMO2.3p2 and 11 additional historical CESM2 members (HIST-X) for 1950-2014. <strong>Reconstructed_SMB_CESM2_Projections_2015-2099.dat</strong>: time series of reconstructed annual GrIS-integrated SMB (Gt yr<sup>-1</sup>) from the parent CESM2 projection (SSP5-8.5-parent) used to force RACMO2.3p2 and 9 additional CESM2 projection members (SSP1-2.6-X to SSP5-8.5-X ) for 2015-2099. <strong>TGrIS_CESM2_Historical_1950-2014.dat</strong>: time series of annual mean TGrIS (K) from the parent historical CESM2 simulation (HIST-parent) used to force RACMO2.3p2 and 11 additional historical CESM2 members (HIST-X) for 1950-2014. <strong>TGrIS_CESM2_Projections_2015-2099.dat</strong>: time series of annual mean TGrIS (K) from the parent CESM2 projection (SSP5-8.5-parent) used to force RACMO2.3p2 and 9 additional CESM2 projection members (SSP1-2.6-X to SSP5-8.5-X ) for 2015-2099. NB: the file <strong>Crossref_sim_names.txt </strong>cross-references the simulation abbreviations in the above .dat files to official simulation names from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The daily downscaled SMB data set from the CESM2-forced RACMO2.3p2 historical simulation and SSP5-8.5 projection are freely available from the authors upon request and without conditions (contact: <strong>b.p.y.noel@uu.nl</strong>). Besides SMB, the data set includes daily total precipitation (snow and rain), snowfall, total melt (snow and ice), meltwater runoff, retention and refreezing, total sublimation (surface and drifting snow), snow drift erosion, as well as 2 m air temperature at 1 km horizontal resolution. Abstract: "Under anticipated future warming, the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) will pass a threshold when meltwater runoff exceeds the accumulation of snow, resulting in a negative surface mass balance (SMB &lt; 0) and sustained mass loss. In spite of several recent warm summers with high melt rates, SMB &lt; 0 has not been reached since at least the year 1958. Here we dynamically and statistically downscale the outputs of an Earth system model to 1 km resolution to infer that a Greenland near-surface atmospheric warming of 4.5 ± 0.3 °C—relative to pre-industrial—is required for GrIS SMB to become persistently negative. Climate models from CMIP5 and CMIP6 translate this regional temperature change to a global warming threshold of 2.7 ± 0.2 °C. Under a high-end warming scenario, this threshold may be reached around 2055, while for a strong mitigation scenario it will likely not be passed."