DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.16420772
title: Data repository and Agrimate model for study "Climate change-driven shifts of global and regional food security risks throughout the 21st century"

description: This repository contains the input data, output data, and the version of the Agrimate model for the associated with the study.

Each (input and output) data file are for the respective crop-ssp-gcm-ggcm-period combination given.

Ensemble list

crop: rice, maize, soybean, wheat

ssp: ssp126, ssp585 (Actually the SSP scenarios are constant to 2015 socioeconomic background, the scenarios only refer to RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5)

gcm (general circulation model): ipsl-cm6a-lr, gfdl-esm4,  mpi-esm1-2-hr, mri-esm2-0, ukesm1-0-ll

ggcm (global gridded crop model):  epic-iiasa, crover, cygma1p74, dssat-pythia, isam, acea, ldndc, lpjml, pdssat, pepic, promet, simplace-lintul5

period (observation period): 1980-2009, 2010-2039, 2040-2069, 2070-2099

Structure

model.zip



Contains the used version of the Agrimate model


input.zip



Contains files necessary to run Agrimate model



harvest anomly files:



harvest-anomalies_crop={crop}_source=GGCMI-3_{ssp}_{gcm}_{ggcm}_tridecade_{period}.csv



harvest trend files:



harvest-trends_crop={crop}_source=GGCMI-3_{ssp}_{gcm}_{ggcm}_tridecade_{period}.csv



harvest anomly files for quadridecade (for sensitivity analysis; used periods: 1980-2019, 2020-2059, 2060-2090):



harvest-anomalies_crop={crop}_source=GGCMI-3_{ssp}_{gcm}_{ggcm}_quadridecade_{period}.csv



harvest trend files for quadridecade (for sensitivity analysis; used periods: 1980-2019, 2020-2059, 2060-2090):



harvest-trends_crop={crop}_source=GGCMI-3_{ssp}_{gcm}_{ggcm}_quadridecade_{period}.csv



food production, consumption, export, imports per country for average baseline 2019-2021 



food-balance_baseline=2019-2021_crop={crop}.csv



trade flows between countries for average baseline 2019-2021



trade-flows_baseline=2019-2021_crop={crop}.csv






output.zip

   raw



Contains raw output files from Agrimate, which contains among others harvest and consumption per macro region or transaction price between macro regions on sub-annual time resolution (24 time steps per year) for the respective period. Each simulation has a 3-year (=72 time steps) spin-up period at the beginning, where the model dynamically evolve to its dynamic unperturbed baseline.This spin-up period is not used for post-simulation analysis.



raw output files



agrimate_crop={crop}_baseline=2019-2021_regions=AgrimateAll_production_anomalies=GGCMI-3_{ssp}_{gcm}_{ggcm}_tridecade_{period}.nc



baseline files



agrimate_crop={crop}_baseline=2019-2021_regions=AgrimateAll_baseline_tridecade.nc



raw output files for quadridecade (for sensitivity analysis)



agrimate_crop={crop}_baseline=2019-2021_regions=AgrimateAll_production_anomalies=GGCMI-3_{ssp}_{gcm}_{ggcm}_quadridecade_{period}.nc



baseline files for quadridecade (for sensitivity analysis)



agrimate_crop={crop}_baseline=2019-2021_regions=AgrimateAll_baseline_quadridecade.nc






   processed



Contains processed output files from Agrimate, baseline as netcdf and maximum and average annual world market prices and regional consumption losses.


      csv







maximum annual world market price with the respective ssp-gcm-ggcm combination



ensemble_aware_annual_max_price_tridecade_{crop}_AgrimateAll_cutoff-100000000_error-no.json



average annual world market price with the respective ssp-gcm-ggcm combination



ensemble_aware_annual_average_price_tridecade_{crop}_AgrimateAll_cutoff-100000000_error-no.json



maximum annual world market price with the respective ssp-gcm-ggcm combination for quadridecade setup



ensemble_aware_annual_max_price_quadridecade_{crop}_AgrimateAll_cutoff-100000000_error-no.json



bootstraping ensemble for return periods for maximum annual world market price



 bootstrap_return_period_shift_empirical_AgrimateAll_n-4000.csv



bootstraping ensemble for return periods for average annual world market price



 bootstrap_return_period_shift_empirical_average_AgrimateAll_n-4000.csv



bootstraping ensemble for return periods for maximum annual world market price for quadridecade setup



 bootstrap_return_period_shift_quadridecade_empirical_AgrimateAll_n-4000.csv



annual consumption per region



{crop}_annual_consumption_loss_kcal_per_region_AgrimateAll_cutoff-1000000000_error-no.csv



annual production per region



{crop}_annual_production_loss_mln_t_per_region_AgrimateAll_cutoff-1000000000_error-no.csv






      baseline







processed baseline



baseline_2019-2021_crops={crop}_regions=AgrimateAll.nc