DOI: 10.5061/dryad.df564
title: Data from: Incorporating abundance information and guiding variable selection for climate-based ensemble forecasting of species' distributional shifts

description: Ecological niche models (ENMs) have increasingly been used to estimate the
 potential effects of climate change on species’ distributions worldwide.
 Recently, predictions of species abundance have also been obtained with
 such models, though knowledge about the climatic variables affecting
 species abundance is often lacking. To address this, we used a
 well-studied guild (temperate North American quail) and the Maxent
 modeling algorithm to compare model performance of three variable
 selection approaches: correlation/variable contribution (CVC), biological
 (i.e., variables known to affect species abundance), and random. We then
 applied the best approach to forecast potential distributions, under
 future climatic conditions, and analyze future potential distributions in
 light of available abundance data and presence-only occurrence data. To
 estimate species’ distributional shifts we generated ensemble forecasts
 using four global circulation models, four representative concentration
 pathways, and two time periods (2050 and 2070). Furthermore, we present
 distributional shifts where 75%, 90%, and 100% of our ensemble models
 agreed. The CVC variable selection approach outperformed our biological
 approach for four of the six species. Model projections indicated
 species-specific effects of climate change on future distributions of
 temperate North American quail. The Gambel’s quail (Callipepla gambelii)
 was the only species predicted to gain area in climatic suitability across
 all three scenarios of ensemble model agreement. Conversely, the scaled
 quail (Callipepla squamata) was the only species predicted to lose area in
 climatic suitability across all three scenarios of ensemble model
 agreement. Our models projected future loss of areas for the northern
 bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) and scaled quail in portions of their
 distributions which are currently areas of high abundance. Climatic
 variables that influence local abundance may not always scale up to
 influence species’ distributions. Special attention should be given to
 selecting variables for ENMs, and tests of model performance should be
 used to validate the choice of variables.
description: GAQU_Current_Thresholds_PLOSA ZIP file of 32 discrete TIFF layers indicating the current areas of environmental suitability for Gambel's quail based on Maxent modeling.GAQU_Future_Thresholds_PLOSA ZIP file of 32 discrete TIFF layers indicating the future areas of environmental suitability for Gambel's quail based on Maxent modeling.MONQ_Current_ThresholdsA ZIP file of 32 discrete TIFF layers indicating the current areas of environmental suitability for Montezuma quail based on Maxent modeling.MONQ_Future_ThresholdsA ZIP file of 32 discrete TIFF layers indicating the future areas of environmental suitability for Montezuma quail based on Maxent modeling.MOUQ_Current_Thresholds_PLOSA ZIP file of 32 discrete TIFF layers indicating the current areas of environmental suitability for mountain quail based on Maxent modeling.MOUQ_Future_Thresholds_PLOSA ZIP file of 32 discrete TIFF layers indicating the future areas of environmental suitability for mountain quail based on Maxent modeling.CAQU_Current_Thresholds_PLOSA ZIP file of 32 discrete TIFF layers indicating the current areas of environmental suitability for California quail based on Maxent modeling.CAQU_Future_Thresholds_PLOSA ZIP file of 32 discrete TIFF layers indicating the future areas of environmental suitability for California quail based on Maxent modeling.NOBO_Current_ThresholdsA ZIP file of 32 discrete TIFF layers indicating the current areas of environmental suitability for northern bobwhite based on Maxent modeling.NOBO_Future_ThresholdsA ZIP file of 32 discrete TIFF layers indicating the future areas of environmental suitability for northern bobwhite based on Maxent modeling.SCQU_Current_Thresholds_PLOSA ZIP file of 32 discrete TIFF layers indicating the current areas of environmental suitability for scaled quail based on Maxent modeling.SCQU_Future_Thresholds_PLOSA ZIP file of 32 discrete TIFF layers indicating the future areas of environmental suitability for scaled quail based on Maxent modeling.CAQU_MPMModel performance metrics (AUC, test omission, and standardized test omission) for traditional (correlation/variable contribution [T]), biological (B), and five random (R1-R5) variable suites used to model the climatic niche of the California quail in Maxent. Ecological niche models were estimated across 100 replicates for each variable suite.GAQU_MPMModel performance metrics (AUC, test omission, and standardized test omission) for traditional (correlation/variable contribution [T]), biological (B), and five random (R1-R5) variable suites used to model the climatic niche of the Gambel's quail in Maxent. Ecological niche models were estimated across 100 replicates for each variable suite.MONQ_MPMModel performance metrics (AUC, test omission, and standardized test omission) for traditional (correlation/variable contribution [T]), biological (B), and five random (R1-R5) variable suites used to model the climatic niche of the Montezuma quail in Maxent. Ecological niche models were estimated across 100 replicates for each variable suite.MOUQ_MPMModel performance metrics (AUC, test omission, and standardized test omission) for traditional (correlation/variable contribution [T]), biological (B), and five random (R1-R5) variable suites used to model the climatic niche of the mountain quail in Maxent. Ecological niche models were estimated across 100 replicates for each variable suite.NOBO_MPMModel performance metrics (AUC, test omission, and standardized test omission) for traditional (correlation/variable contribution [T]), biological (B), and five random (R1-R5) variable suites used to model the climatic niche of the northern bobwhite in Maxent. Ecological niche models were estimated across 100 replicates for each variable suite.SCQU_MPMModel performance metrics (AUC, test omission, and standardized test omission) for traditional (correlation/variable contribution [T]), biological (B), and five random (R1-R5) variable suites used to model the climatic niche of the scaled quail in Maxent. Ecological niche models were estimated across 100 replicates for each variable suite.CAQU_REGTest omission errors for ecological niche models estimated for the California quail in which regularization multiplier values varied. Models were built based on the selection of the best variable suite (traditional [correlation/variable contribution], biological, or random) in Maxent. Ecological niche models were estimated across 100 replicates for each regularization multiplier value.GAQU_REGTest omission errors for ecological niche models estimated for the Gambel's quail in which regularization multiplier values varied. Models were built based on the selection of the best variable suite (traditional [correlation/variable contribution], biological, or random) in Maxent. Ecological niche models were estimated across 100 replicates for each regularization multiplier value.MONQ_REGTest omission errors for ecological niche models estimated for the Montezuma quail in which regularization multiplier values varied. Models were built based on the selection of the best variable suite (traditional [correlation/variable contribution], biological, or random) in Maxent. Ecological niche models were estimated across 100 replicates for each regularization multiplier value.MOUQ_REGTest omission errors for ecological niche models estimated for the mountain quail in which regularization multiplier values varied. Models were built based on the selection of the best variable suite (traditional [correlation/variable contribution], biological, or random) in Maxent. Ecological niche models were estimated across 100 replicates for each regularization multiplier value.NOBO_REGTest omission errors for ecological niche models estimated for the northern bobwhite in which regularization multiplier values varied. Models were built based on the selection of the best variable suite (traditional [correlation/variable contribution], biological, or random) in Maxent. Ecological niche models were estimated across 100 replicates for each regularization multiplier value.SCQU_REGTest omission errors for ecological niche models estimated for the scaled quail in which regularization multiplier values varied. Models were built based on the selection of the best variable suite (traditional [correlation/variable contribution], biological, or random) in Maxent. Ecological niche models were estimated across 100 replicates for each regularization multiplier value.maxentResultsCAQUMaxent output (excel file) for ecological niche models of the California quail estimated from the best variable suite and top performing regularization multiplier.maxentResultsMONQMaxent output (excel file) for ecological niche models of the Montezuma quail estimated from the best variable suite and top performing regularization multiplier.maxentResultsGAQUMaxent output (excel file) for ecological niche models of the Gambel's quail estimated from the best variable suite and top performing regularization multiplier.maxentResultsMOUQMaxent output (excel file) for ecological niche models of the mountain quail estimated from the best variable suite and top performing regularization multiplier.maxentResultsNOBOMaxent output (excel file) for ecological niche models of the northern bobwhite estimated from the best variable suite and top performing regularization multiplier.maxentResultsSCQUMaxent output (excel file) for ecological niche models of the scaled quail estimated from the best variable suite and top performing regularization multiplier.caqu_bbs_aRaster file of California quail abundance estimates derived from Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data.gaqu_bbs_aRaster file of Gambel's quail abundance estimates derived from Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data.mouq_bbs_aRaster file of mountain quail abundance estimates derived from Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data.nobo_bbs_aRaster file of northern bobwhite abundance estimates derived from Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data.scqu_bbs_aRaster file of scaled quail abundance estimates derived from Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data.caqumaxenteapnatureserveCollated and spatially rarefied occurrence locations of California quail used to create ecological niche models through Maxent. Data were collated from both Breeding Bird Survey and eBird databases.gaqumaxenteapnatureserveCollated and spatially rarefied occurrence locations of Gambel's quail used to create ecological niche models through Maxent. Data were collated from both Breeding Bird Survey and eBird databases.monq_maxentEAPCollated and spatially rarefied occurrence locations of Montezuma quail used to create ecological niche models through Maxent. Data were collated from both Breeding Bird Survey and eBird databases.mouq_maxentfileEAPCollated and spatially rarefied occurrence locations of mountain quail used to create ecological niche models through Maxent. Data were collated from both Breeding Bird Survey and eBird databases.nobomaxenteapnatureserveCollated and spatially rarefied occurrence locations of northern bobwhite used to create ecological niche models through Maxent. Data were collated from both Breeding Bird Survey and eBird databases.scqu_maxentfileeapCollated and spatially rarefied occurrence locations of scaled quail used to create ecological niche models through Maxent. Data were collated from both Breeding Bird Survey and eBird databases.