DOI: 10.5061/dryad.2s25t0g
title: Data from: European ornamental garden flora as an invasion debt under climate change

description: 1.Most naturalized and invasive alien plant species were originally
 introduced to regions for horticultural purposes. However, many regions
 now face an invasion debt from ornamental alien species, which have not
 yet naturalized. In this regard, climate change represents a threat as it
 may lower the barriers to naturalization for some ornamental alien
 species. Identifying those species is extremely important for anticipating
 impending invasions. 2.To identify predictors of naturalization, we
 modelled the effects of climate, nursery availability and species
 characteristics on the current European naturalization success of 2,073
 ornamental aliens commonly planted in European gardens. We then used the
 resulting model together with climate projections for 2050 to forecast
 future naturalization risks for the 1,583 species not yet naturalized in
 Europe. 3.We found that non‐European naturalized range size, climatic
 suitability, propagule pressure, having a dioecious sexual system and
 plant height jointly explained current naturalization success in Europe.
 By 2050, naturalization probability projections increased by more than 0.1
 for 41 species, and only decreased by more than 0.1 for one species.
 4.Policy Implications. Using predictions based on our integrated model of
 alien ornamental naturalization success, we identified species with high
 future naturalization risk and species with high projected increases in
 naturalization potential in Europe under climate change. This species list
 allows for prioritization of monitoring and regulation of ornamental
 plants to mitigate the invasion debt.
description: EGF final modelling
 dataFile incorporating all
 predictor and naturalization success data available for EGF species for
 use in naturalization success modellingFull_EGF_modelling_data_2017.csvgbif_extractionR code for extracting coordinate data for species presence points found in gbif and cropping them to appropriate regionscode_for_model_reductionR code for univariate model testing and saturated model reductionEGF_term_selection_12062017File explaining final model term selection (saturated model reduction)whoisnext_chronogram_sp_polytomy1Phylogenetic tree for species used in manuscript, built using GenBank sequences and following Roquet et al. (2012). The tree was resolved at the genus level, and species were included as polytomies.tss_max_threshold_20092017File containing tss scores for all 10 folds of cross-validation.Calculating TSS scoresR code for K-fold cross validation of final model of naturalization successtss_20092017.RClimate suitability modeling codeR code for deriving climatic suitability values from biomod2 modelsclim_mod_2017update.RNursery_dataFile aligning EGF species with van der veken et al. 2008 nursery sales dataNaturalization_dataFile merging European garden Flora species with GloNAF. Sheets contained in file: "Matrix": EGF species and their presence in each glonaf region "RegionData": Data for each glonaf region (i.e. continent of origin)gbif_point_countFile indicating number of presence points available for EGF species Variable names and descriptions: Species_EGF: EGF species Number of Presence Points in GBIF: Number of presence points available