DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.15159857
title: TABLE 1 in What Will the Future Bring for Biological Invasions on Islands? An Expert-Based Assessment

description: TABLE 1 | Overview table of the 15 drivers used in the survey and their rationale on how they might affect biological invasions.
DriverRationaleEnvironmental ChangeClimate ChangeClimate change is likely to change mean temperatures, change precipitation patterns etc. and increase the frequency, magnitude and distribution of extreme events, causing disturbances that may create opportunities for alien species. These changes are likely to interact synergistically with biological invasions, although substantial variation exists among taxa and geographic regions.Ocean AcidificationIncreasing CO2-levels will increase ocean acidification, thereby affecting water chemistry and native biotaEutrophication and PollutionAnthropogenic input of pollutants and nutrients via fertilization, run off and atmospheric deposition affect many ecosystems, often promoting opportunistic species.Biodiversity Loss and DegradationDowngrading and loss of (near-) natural ecosystems, loss of species and functional groups, and positive feedbacks (facilitation, invasional meltdown) may have distinct implications on species compositions.Socio-Economic ActivityTrade and TransportKey features of trade and transport such as the type of goods that are transported, the volumes that are traded, the means and velocity of transport, and the routes of transport are likely to change in the future. Emerging modes of trading (e.g., via internet) that are more difficult to regulate may become more relevant for biological invasions. Trade includes also specific high-risk pathways such as pet and horticultural trade, wood products, ballast water and biofouling, and the emergence of new trade routes that are becoming accessible due to climate change (Arctic shipping routes) or economic interests (Suez Canal and Panama Canal extension, Nicaragua Canal).Land Use/Cover ChangeDemand for food supplies, clothing, housing, etc. and for new materials (e.g., for bioenergy production) will likely increase in the 21st century. The resulting changes in land-use (incl. the intentional use of IAS) and land-use intensity may cause losses of ecosystems, degradation of used ecosystems, increase fragmentation and disturbance of ecosystems, and alter resource dynamics.Socio-Economic ChangeThe level of socio-economic activities (as measured by per capita GDP or similar metrics) is correlated with a wide range of changes of the environment (e.g., resource and energy uses, human mobility, land use) that may be relevant for determining the success of biological invasions.Demography and MigrationChanges in the size and distribution of human populations and migration of humans may influence biological invasions via a range of correlated relevant impacts.Society and TechnologyAwareness, Values and LifestyleThe awareness and values of the citizens, stakeholders, business, NGOs and politicians toward biological invasions is important for establishing and implementing invasive alien species (IAS) policies and management. Includes also the views of people who are opposing actions on IAS on ethical grounds (e.g., animal-right movements) or because they consider it unwarranted.Recreation and Tourism(Outdoor) recreation (incl. gardening, hunting, fishing, hiking) and tourism may impact on biological invasions in a range of different ways.Communication and OutreachThe way, tone and intensity of communication on biological invasions with(in) the wider public and decision makers may influence the public perception of and action on invasive alien species (IAS).Technology and InnovationThe general level of innovation and the extent to which new technologies are introduced, accepted and become widely applied may have substantial implications for biological invasions (e.g., biocontrol safety).Cooperation, Legislation and AgreementsThe level of political and institutional cooperation (within and between nations) and the ensuing legislation and agreements on biosecurity and biological invasions, their relationship with other relevant topics (e.g., trade agreements), and the level of implementing these policies.IAS ScienceScientific research on invasive alien species (IAS) may improve the understanding of the invasion process of IAS, improve management techniques, increase data availability on alien species etc. Further, research priorities may be more or less relevant for IAS management and policy.IAS ManagementThe comprehensiveness and level of implementation of invasive alien species (IAS) management, and the available resources and institutional capacities may be important for the level of biological invasions.
Within the questionnaire, the drivers were grouped in three subcategories: (i) environmental change, (ii) socio-economic activity, and (iii) society and technology.
description: Published as part of Lenzner, Bernd, Latombe, Guillaume, Capinha, César, Bellard, Céline, Courchamp, Franck, Diagne, Christophe, Dullinger, Stefan, Golivets, Marina, Irl, Severin D. H., Kühn, Ingolf, Leung, Brian, Liu, Chunlong, Moser, Dietmar, Roura-Pascual, Núria, Seebens, Hanno, Turbelin, Anna, Weigelt, Patrick & Essl, Franz, 2020, What Will the Future Bring for Biological Invasions on Islands? An Expert-Based Assessment, pp. 3 in Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution (280) 8 on page 3, DOI: 10.3389/fevo.2020.00280, http://zenodo.org/record/14743920