DOI: 10.5061/dryad.p8cz8w9zw
title: Knowns and unknowns in future human pressures on the ocean

description: Growing demands on ocean resources are placing increasing pressure on
 ocean ecosystems. To assess the current state of knowledge of future human
 pressures on the ocean, we conducted a literature review of recent and
 projected trends of 25 anthropogenic pressures, comprising most of the
 identified human pressures on the global oceans. To better understand gaps
 in the data, we developed a comprehensive framework of the activities
 contributing to each pressure. All pressures were allocated to five
 categories (biological disruption, disturbance, and removal, altered ocean
 chemistry, pollution, and climate pressures). All pressures are expected
 to worsen in the future under business-as-usual scenarios (or similar)
 based on past trajectories and/or models of future scenarios. Eight of the
 pressures assessed have not been projected into the future (diseases and
 pathogens, introduced coastal wildlife predation, disruption to sediment
 dynamics, wildlife strikes, organic and inorganic chemical pollution, and
 light and noise pollution), likely due to the limited availability of data
 describing current pressures, the challenges of modeling future pressures,
 and high levels of uncertainty. We thus recommend they receive priority
 attention to assess their likely future trajectories, given their
 potential magnitude of influence.
description: A list of anthropogenic pressures (n=25) and corresponding
 activities was pre-determined and defined, building on similar efforts to
 catalog pressures (Halpern et al., 2007; O’Hara and Halpern 2022). The
 summarized list is presented in Figure 1 and the full description of each
 pressure is in the Supporting Information. This was followed by a scoping
 review (Collins et al., 2015) to identify available publications on
 projected ocean pressures at a global scale that had either quantitative
 or qualitative trend outputs. The literature search was
 completed between February and May 2022, using the SCOPUS database.
 Academic journal articles, books, reports, and grey literature published
 between 2000-2022, in English, were included. Word search criteria (of
 titles) included: (global* OR world OR ocean OR coast*) AND (forecast* OR
 project* OR trend OR predict* OR estimate* OR ensemble OR review); with
 additional keywords according to each pressure (e.g., “sea level rise”).
 The results of the database were automatically organized by relevance. A
 minimum of 60 results was examined by reading the title, abstract, and in
 some cases full document, to determine its importance. This threshold was
 chosen arbitrarily. Additional sources of information
 were searched, including reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on
 Climate Change (IPCC), the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), and
 the United Nations (UN). Cross references (snowball sampling) and other
 documents suggested by co-authors were assessed if relevant. This approach
 may introduce potential biases, as it tends to exclude less cited and more
 recent works with clear relevance. However, all co-authors have good
 exposure to recent publications and were able to suggest useful sources
 that mitigate this bias. We then synthesized the literature using a
 narrative approach (Booth et al., 2016) which characterises studies in
 terms of multiple groupings to explore heterogeneity descriptively, rather
 than statistically. The synthesis phase consisted of extracting and
 categorizing the projected pressure data from selected papers based on:
 spatial resolution; temporal range; type of analysis (e.g.,
 quantitative/mapped, qualitative/unmapped, qualitative, or mixed); if
 available, the specific scenarios used for future projections (i.e.,
 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP), Shared Socioeconomic Pathway
 (SSP)); and description of the general trend of each pressure (e.g.,
 upward, downward or static trajectory). The terminology is described in
 Table 1.
description: # Knowns and unknowns in future human pressures on the ocean
 [https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.p8cz8w9zw](https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.p8cz8w9zw) ## Authors O. Alejandra Vargas-Fonseca Institute for Coastal and Marine Research, Nelson Mandela University, Gqeberha, South Africa. **Corresponding author:** [ale@earthcollective.net](mailto:ale@earthcollective.net) Melanie Frazier National Center for Ecological Analysis & Synthesis, University of California, Santa Barbara, USA. Amanda T. Lombard Institute for Coastal and Marine Research, Nelson Mandela University, Gqeberha, South Africa. Benjamin S. Halpern National Center for Ecological Analysis & Synthesis, University of California, Santa Barbara, USA. Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, USA. ## **File list** Vargas Fonseca Knowns and Unknowns in Future Human Pressures on the Ocean data.xlsx  ## **File description** We conducted a literature review of 86 articles that involved systematically collecting, analysing, and synthesizing data from these sources to gain a comprehensive understanding of recent and projected trends of 25 anthropogenic pressures, comprising most of the identified human pressures on the global oceans. We present the list of articles which the information was extracted from in the xls file. The file has the following columns:  1. General Category 2. Article's first author 3. Article's title 4. Full reference 5. Temporal range of projected trend  6. Spatial resolution 7. Data type (observational, model, or ensemble model) 8. Analysis type (quantitative, qualitative, mapping, or mixed) 9. Map present or not on article results (yes/no) 10. 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