DOI: 10.5061/dryad.pzgmsbd20
title: Data from: Changing climate may drive large shifts in vegetation zones of Oregon, USA

description: Anticipating plausible future ecosystem states is necessary for effective
 ecosystem management. We use climate analog-based impact models and a
 co-production process with land managers to project future vegetation
 changes for the state of Oregon, United States (2041-2070, RCP 8.5) at a
 management-relevant spatial resolution (270 meters). We explored multiple
 analog-based methodologies, evaluated analog model performance with
 contemporary validation, and leveraged climate analogs to assess
 projection uncertainty by quantifying areas where multiple vegetation
 trajectories are plausible under a single climate scenario. We find that
 analog-based models performed well at reproducing landscape-level
 vegetation composition, and moderately well at reproducing vegetation at
 the pixel level. Our results suggest that 64 % of the study area will
 experience future climate conditions that support different potential
 natural vegetation types, and 59 % will experience climates corresponding
 with different potential plant physiognomic types, compared to
 reference-period conditions. We project a 60% reduction of mesic
 conifer-dominated forests with transitions to mixed evergreen forest
 types. We also project losses to dry forests, cold forests and parklands,
 with commensurate expansions of shrublands, grasslands, and geographic
 redistribution of dry forest types. We find that in many areas, several
 vegetation trajectories are plausible under a single climate scenario.
 Finally, we provide guidance for using future vegetation projections and
 uncertainty outputs in management decisions using the Resist-Accept-Direct
 (RAD) adaptation framework.
description: # Data from: Changing climate may drive large shifts in vegetation zones
 of Oregon, USA Dataset DOI:
 [10.5061/dryad.pzgmsbd20](https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.pzgmsbd20) ##
 Description of the data and file structure Changing climate may drive
 large shifts in vegetation zones of Oregon, USA Anticipating plausible
 future ecosystem states is necessary for effective ecosystem management.
 ### Files and variables All rasters and files containing coordinates use
 the NAD 1983 USFS R6 Albers projection. #### File: analog_locations.zip
 **Description:** A collection of files with coordinates of focal (focal_x,
 focal_y) and analog pixels (analog_x, analog_y). These files can be used
 to make analog-based climate impact projections using additional data
 layers/other vegetation layers.  #### File: analog_count.tiff
 **Description:** number of analogs found for each focal pixel (maximum
 100).  #### File: mean_distance2analog.tiff **Description:** Mean distance
 (in kilometers) between focal pixels and their 100 analogs (or less if we
 couldn't find 100 adequate analogs).  #### File: mean_sigma.tiff
 **Description:** Mean sigma dissimilarity between focal and analog
 climates.  #### File: analog_sv_1.tiff **Description:** The physiognomic
 vegetation type code for the primary future vegetation projection, i.e.,
 the vegetation type that received plurality of votes among 100 analogs.
 The code-vegetation name table is in the sv_code.csv file.  #### File:
 analog_sv_1_vote.tiff **Description:** The number of analog votes for the
 primary physiognomic type projected.  #### File: analog_sv_2.tiff
 **Description:** The physiognomic vegetation type code for the secondary
 vegetation projection. I.e., the vegetation type receiving the second
 most-common vote after the primary projection. The code-vegetation name
 table is in the sv_code.csv file.  #### File: analog_sv_3.tiff
 **Description:** The physiognomic vegetation type code for the tertiary
 vegetation projection. I.e., the vegetation type receiving the third
 most-common vote after the primary projection. The code-vegetation name
 table is in the sv_code.csv file.  #### File: analog_sv_2_vote.tiff
 **Description:** The number of analog votes for the secondary physiognomic
 type projected.  #### File: analog_sv_3_vote.tiff **Description:** The
 number of analog votes for the tertiary physiognomic type projected.  ####
 File: focal_sv.tiff **Description:** The physiognomic vegetation type
 found at focal location in the reference period.  #### File:
 analog_sv_sampled.tiff **Description:** The physiognomic vegetation type
 code for the future vegetation projected with the sampling method. The
 code-vegetation name table is in the sv_code.csv file.  #### File:
 analog_vzone_1.tiff **Description:** The vegzone code for the primary
 future vegetation projection, i.e., the vegetation type that received
 plurality of votes among 100 analogs. The code-vegetation name table is in
 the vz_code.csv file.  #### File: analog_vzone_1_vote.tiff
 **Description:** The number of analog votes for the primary vegzone
 projected.  #### File: analog_vzone_2.tiff **Description:** The vegzone
 code for the secondary future vegetation projection, i.e., the vegzone
 receiving the second most-common vote after the primary projection. The
 code-vegzone name table is in the vz_code.csv file. #### File:
 analog_vzone_3_vote.tiff **Description:** The number of analog votes for
 the tertiary vegzone projected.  #### File: analog_vzone_2_vote.tiff
 **Description:** The number of analog votes for the secondary vegzone
 projected.  #### File: analog_vzone_sampled.tiff **Description:** The
 vegzone code for the future vegetation projected with the sampling method.
 The code-vegetation name table is in the vz_code.csv file.  #### File:
 focal_vzone.tiff **Description:** The vegzone type found at focal location
 in the reference period.  #### File: analog_vzone_3.tiff
 **Description:** The vegzone code for the tertiary future vegetation
 projection, i.e., the vegzone receiving the third most-common vote after
 the primary projection. The code-vegzone name table is in the vz_code.csv
 file. ## Code/software The data were created using R Studio **2023.03.0,**
 and using the terra package 1.8.10. However, they can be viewed using any
 GIS software.