DOI: 10.5061/dryad.76hdr7t2d
title: Data for: Climate change alone cannot explain boreal caribou range recession in Quebec since 1850

description: The contraction of species range is one of the most significant symptoms
 of biodiversity loss worldwide. While anthropogenic activities and habitat
 alteration are major threats for several species, climate change has not
 been overlooked either. For species at risk, differentiating the effects
 of human disturbances and climate change on past and current range
 transformations is an important step towards improved conservation
 strategies. We paired historical range maps with global atmospheric
 reanalyses from different sources (ERA5, CERA-20C, 20CRv3) to assess the
 potential effects of recent climate change on the observed northward
 contraction of the distribution range of boreal populations of woodland
 caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) in Quebec (Canada) since 1850. We
 quantified these effects by highlighting the discrepancies between
 different southern limits of the caribou’s range (used as references)
 observed in the past and reconstitutions obtained through the hindcasting
 of the climate conditions within which caribou are currently found.
 Hindcasted southern limits moved ~105 km north over time under all
 reanalysis datasets, a trend drastically different from the ~620 km
 reported for observed southern limits since 1850. The differences in
 latitudinal shift through time between the observed and hindcasted
 southern limits of distribution suggest that caribou range recession
 should have been only 17% of what has been observed since 1850 if recent
 climate change had been the only disturbance driver. This limited impact
 of climate reinforces the scientific consensus stating that caribou range
 recession in Quebec is mainly caused by anthropogenic drivers (i.e.
 logging, development of the road network, agriculture, urbanization) that
 have modified the structure and composition of the forest over the past
 160 years, paving the way for habitat-mediated apparent competition and
 overharvesting. Our results also call for a better consideration of past
 distribution ranges in models aiming at projecting future distributions,
 especially for endangered species.
description: Adult caribou females were
 captured and fitted with GPS-collars.
 We examined archives and other
 sources to find reliable information on past boreal caribou
 distributions. We extracted the climate data used in this study
 from three datasets, i.e. ERA5, CERA-20C and
 20CRv3.  We modelled the realized climate niche of boreal
 caribou by linking current climate conditions and occurrences of caribou
 and then hindcasted past boreal caribou distributions using the identified
 climatic niche. Different algorithms were used to do so: Generalized
 Linear Models (GLM), Generalized Additive Models (GAM), Random Forests
 (RF) and Boosted Regression Trees (BRT). 
description: # Data for: Climate change alone cannot explain boreal caribou range
 recession in Quebec since 1850
 [https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.76hdr7t2d](https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.76hdr7t2d) Boreal caribou GPS Telemetry Data: * The GPS telemetry data cannot be shared with the reviewers, editors and readers of this manuscript, as a request of the Government of Quebec. * Potential users interested in accessing these datasets have to contact the Direction générale de la gestion de la faune et des habitats of the * Ministère de l'Environnement, de la Lutte contre les Changements Climatiques, de la Faune et des Parcs du Québec and submit their data access request. * They can be contacted at: services.clientele@mffp.gouv.qc.ca. Southern limits of the boreal caribou ranges between 1850 and 2010: \- These shapefiles were uploaded on Dryad in a \.zip file named "Morineau et al\_Southern limits caribou distribution ranges\.zip"\. This \.zip file contained the 4 southern limits for 1850 \("limite\_sud\_1850\_final"\)\, 1900 \("limite\_fin\_XIXe"\)\, 1970 ("limite\_1972\_Courtois") and 2010 ("distribution\_2010\_Quebec). Climate Data: \- The ERA5 dataset can be downloaded at the URL: https://www\.ecmwf\.int/en/forecasts/datasets/reanalysis\-datasets/era5 \(European Centre for Medium\-Range Weather Forecasts\)\. \- The CERA\-20C dataset can be downloaded at the URL: https://www\.ecmwf\.int/en/forecasts/datasets/reanalysis\-datasets/cera\-20c \(European Centre for Medium\-Range Weather Forecasts\)\. \- The 20CRv3 dataset can be downloaded at the URL: https://www\.psl\.noaa\.gov/data/gridded/data\.20thC\_ReanV3\.html \(NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory\)\. The three following shapefiles representing the grids used to extract the climate data were updated on Dryad: * gridERA5.zip * gridCERA20C.zip * grid20CRv3.zip For more information, please contact the corresponding author for this manuscript: Prof. Martin-Hugues St-Laurent, biol. PhD Centre for Forest Research & Centre for Northern Studies Département de biologie, chimie et géographie Université du Québec à Rimouski 300 allée des Ursulines Rimouski (Québec) Canada, G5L 3A1. Email: martin-hugues\_st-laurent@uqar.ca Phone: (418) 723-1986 # 1538