DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.10070596
title: NGFS Climate Scenarios Data Set

description: Download information

Please do not request a data download here.

Rather, the data is available for download at the NGFS Scenario Explorer under this download link: https://data.ece.iiasa.ac.at/ngfs-phase-4/#/downloads. In order to download click on Guest login. You will be forwarded to the downloads page where you find the data.

The license permits use of the scenario ensemble for scientific research and commercial use, but restricts redistribution of substantial parts of the data. Please refer to the FAQ and legal code for more information.

Release notes V4.0

An effort has been made to keep the NGFS Phase 4 data model as much as possible in line with Phase 3 as possible. Nonetheless, there are a few changes: 



The MESSAGE model (IAM and Downscaling) does not report GDP for the Low demand scenario because the demand projections are developed bottom-up uncoupled from the GDP feedbacks in the MESSAGEix framework.

The *Divergent net Zero* scenario was dropped.

Two new scenarios were introduced:



Fragmented World

Low Demand



There's now a full set of From the MAGICC climate model, we now report more percentiles ranging from 5th to 95th instead of just the previously only the 50th percentile.

The in Phase 3 from REMIND and GCAM model-reported temperature variable Temperature|Global mean has been dropped. The replacement variable is the more accurate AR6 climate diagnostics|Surface Temperature (GSAT)|MAGICCv7.5.3|50.0th.

In addition we also report atmospheric concentrations from MAGICC for CO2, CH4, and N2O.

The Damages post processing was moved under the Downscaling model as it reports country level data. Previously it was filed under the native IAM models.The variables affected are:



GDP|PPP|including medium chronic physical risk damage estimate

GDP|PPP|including high chronic physical risk damage estimate

Post-processed|high GDP change|KW panel population-weighted|GMT AR6 climate diagnostics|Surface Temperature (GSAT)|MAGICCv7.5.3|5.0th Percentile

Post-processed|high GDP change|KW panel population-weighted|GMT AR6 climate diagnostics|Surface Temperature (GSAT)|MAGICCv7.5.3|50.0th Percentile

Post-processed|high GDP change|KW panel population-weighted|GMT AR6 climate diagnostics|Surface Temperature (GSAT)|MAGICCv7.5.3|95.0th Percentile

Post-processed|median GDP change|KW panel population-weighted|GMT AR6 climate diagnostics|Surface Temperature (GSAT)|MAGICCv7.5.3|5.0th Percentile

Post-processed|median GDP change|KW panel population-weighted|GMT AR6 climate diagnostics|Surface Temperature (GSAT)|MAGICCv7.5.3|50.0th Percentile

Post-processed|median GDP change|KW panel population-weighted|GMT AR6 climate diagnostics|Surface Temperature (GSAT)|MAGICCv7.5.3|95.0th Percentile

net GDP|PPP|high damage|KW panel population-weighted|GMT AR6 climate diagnostics|Surface Temperature (GSAT)|MAGICCv7.5.3|5.0th Percentile

net GDP|PPP|high damage|KW panel population-weighted|GMT AR6 climate diagnostics|Surface Temperature (GSAT)|MAGICCv7.5.3|50.0th Percentile

net GDP|PPP|high damage|KW panel population-weighted|GMT AR6 climate diagnostics|Surface Temperature (GSAT)|MAGICCv7.5.3|95.0th Percentile

net GDP|PPP|median damage|KW panel population-weighted|GMT AR6 climate diagnostics|Surface Temperature (GSAT)|MAGICCv7.5.3|5.0th Percentile

net GDP|PPP|median damage|KW panel population-weighted|GMT AR6 climate diagnostics|Surface Temperature (GSAT)|MAGICCv7.5.3|50.0th Percentile

net GDP|PPP|median damage|KW panel population-weighted|GMT AR6 climate diagnostics|Surface Temperature (GSAT)|MAGICCv7.5.3|95.0th Percentile

Country Temperature|Downscaling|5.0th Percentile

Country Temperature|Downscaling|50.0th Percentile

Country Temperature|Downscaling|95.0th Percentile



In Phase 3 for the integrated damage runs of REMIND (REMIND-MAgPIE 3.0-4.4 IntegratedPhysicalDamages (95th-high) and REMIND-MAgPIE 3.0-4.4 IntegratedPhysicalDamages (median)) the variable GDP|PPP|Counterfactual without damage was reported erroneously. It has been removed for this release.

Due to limitation in Excel data size the Downscaling data have now been split into three files, one for each IAM.


In addition, due to a processing error, NiGEM data for the MESSAGE model, for scenarios Net Zero 2050, Below 2C and Fragmented World are currently not published. 

Work is being done to fix this as soon as possible.

About NGFS

The Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) is a group of 127 central banks and supervisors and 20 observers committed to sharing best practices, contributing to the development of climate– and environment–related risk management in the financial sector and mobilising mainstream finance to support the transition toward a sustainable economy.

This Scenario Explorer is a web-based user interface for NGFS Scenarios. This provides intuitive visualizations & display of time series data and download of the data in multiple formats.

NGFS scenarios were produced by NGFS Workstream on Scenarios Design and Analysis in partnership with an academic consortium from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), University of Maryland (UMD), Climate Analytics (CA), and the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR). This work was made possible by grants from Bloomberg Philanthropies and ClimateWorks Foundation.

The bespoke scenarios developed in Phase 4 of this project are generated by state-of-the-art well-established integrated assessment models (IAMs), namely GCAM, MESSAGE-GLOBIOM and REMIND-MAgPIE, as well as the NiGEM macroeconomic model.
description: This work was made possible by grants from Bloomberg Philanthropies and ClimateWorks Foundation.