DOI: 10.5061/dryad.msbcc2g84
title: Spatial locations of reported FMD outbreaks

description: Control of transboundary diseases at a regional level is commended over
 the country level due to its inherent complexities. The World Organization
 for Animal Health (WOAH) has established different zones worldwide to
 control such contagious diseases as foot-and-mouth disease (FMD).
 Controlling FMD is difficult because of the complicated connection between
 FMD risk factors and the deficits of surveillance activities in countries.
 We used an ecological niche model (ENM) that accounts for the
 under-reporting of outbreaks to determine FMD risk and risk factors in
 South Asian countries, India, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka. Centered on known
 outbreak information, we predicted high-risk areas using similar regional
 ecological features. Using a multi-algorithm machine-learning ensemble
 that includes random forest, support vector, and gradient boosting, 15
 predictive variables (i.e livestock densities, land cover, and climate),
 660 FMD outbreaks from 13 years (2009-2022) in the region including the
 outbreaks from India, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka we identified that Sri
 Lanka and Bangladesh appeared to have low to medium outbreak risk in the
 range of 0.04 to 0.55. India was used to fit the model. The machine
 learning models demonstrated high predictive performance
 (accuracy&gt;0.87) through cross-validation. Production systems,
 isothermality, cattle density, and mean diurnal range were identified as
 the most important predictors of FMD outbreaks. These models help to
 determine FMD low-risk areas to minimize FMD surveillance activities and
 high-risk areas to focus on performing additional confirmatory testing,
 and improve surveillance in a regional context.
description: # Spatial locations of reported FMD outbreaks
 [https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.msbcc2g84](https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.msbcc2g84) ## Description of the data and file structure For this analysis, locations of reported FMD outbreak data were obtained from India, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka from 2009 to 2022. An outbreak was defined as a group of epidemiologically linked cases (WOAH, Terrestrial code) during the considered period. For Bangladesh, the outbreak data were collected from the district animal health officers and the local farmers. Laboratory-confirmed outbreaks were reported at the Upazilla level from 32 districts. For Sri Lanka, officially reported outbreak data were available from the Department of Animal Health, Sri Lanka. Outbreaks were reported at the veterinary range level; 369 outbreaks were reported during the period. From a previous study, FMD outbreak data for India (n=429) were available at the district level. To lower the training error of the model, duplicate occurrences of the same geographical location of outbreaks were removed during the considered period. From a total of 829 outbreaks, the final data set comprised 660 outbreaks from the three countries. ### Files and variables #### File: FMD_location_data1.xlsx **Description:**  ##### Variables * latitude and longitude data of the closest FMD outbreak occurrence locations (as described in the manuscript) during the period from 2009-2022.  ## Code/software Microsoft Excel or LibreOffice. ArcGIS, QGIS, and Google Maps can be used to view this data.  ## Access information Other publicly accessible locations of the data: * NA  Data was derived from the following sources: * NA