DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.10907376
title: Projected distribution of invasive plant species in the tropical Andes under climate change

description: Distribution maps of 11 invasive species now and in the future (2040-70). The projections were the result of the assembly of three algorithms: Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost), Boosted Regression Trees (BRT), and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost). Future projections were made for three global circulation models and three climate change scenarios, each with low (SSP126), medium (SSP370), and high (SSP585) levels of carbon emission.

Habitat suitability and presence/absence maps are also included. The threshold for establishing a species as present was determined to be the value that maximized the TSS. 

For more information, see the article accompanying the dataset by González-Trujillo et al. Mapping the threat: Projecting invasive plant distribution in the tropical Andes under climate change

List of modeled invasive plant species and their known impacts in the tropics.






Species 



Biogeographic origin



Impacts 



References



GBIF data (DOIs)





Acacia decurrens 



Australian



Create regular layers of litter on the ground, inhibit or redirect successional processes, inhibit the expression of seed banks, and limit resource supply, leading to displacement of native plants and animals and increasing the frequency of fires.



 (Cárdenas López et al., 2017; Le Maitre et al., 2011)



https://doi.org/10.15468/dl.mjyxhw





Acacia melanoxylon



Australian



Alter the structure and function of their ecosystems, thereby displacing their native flora. It also causes soil erosion and alters hydrological cycles, negatively affecting agriculture.



(Kumschick and Jansen, 2023; Le Maitre et al., 2011)

 



https://doi.org/10.15468/dl.4cugnk





Arundo donax

 



Holarctic



Alter the natural vegetation structure, outcompete native plant species and diminish the diversity and abundance of animals such as arthropods and birds. It also drives out soil, fuels forest fires, displaces native species, and increases the invasion of ticks that affect livestock.



(Cárdenas López et al., 2017; Girotto et al., 2021; Lambert et al., 2010)



https://doi.org/10.15468/dl.bfep4t





Genista monspessulana



Holarctic



Alter fire regime and nutrient cycling displace native species and decrease native diversity by forming dense monospecific stands. It also facilitates the establishment of other invasive species and produces seeds that are toxic to livestock and humans.



(Cárdenas López et al., 2017; Herrera et al., 2016; Pauchard et al., 2008)



https://doi.org/10.15468/dl.gyhnxh





Hedychium coronarium 



Indo-Malesian



Alter hydrological and nutrient cycles in soil. It forms thickets that suppress the successional and regeneration processes of native species, thus affecting the native flora and crops.



(Cárdenas López et al., 2017; Costa et al., 2019)



https://doi.org/10.15468/dl.6z2jgb





Melinis minutiflora



African



Increases the occurrence of fires, displaces native species, and alters soil properties and decomposition. It also inhibits the growth of native species.



(Cárdenas López et al., 2017; Nogueira et al., 2019; Sandoval et al., 2022)



https://doi.org/10.15468/dl.fsqwsv





Pteridium aquilinum



Holarctic



Alter vegetation success processes affect crops and cause livestock poisoning.  It also produces acids that inhibit root growth in native and cultivated species.



 (Berget et al., 2015; Cárdenas López et al., 2017; Valdez-Ramírez et al., 2020)

 



https://doi.org/10.15468/dl.sp4uuv





Ricinus communis



African



Alter vegetation success processes affect crops and cause livestock poisoning. It also produces acids that inhibit root growth in native and cultivated species.



(Cárdenas López et al., 2017; Sandoval et al., 2022; Silva and Fabricante, 2022)



https://doi.org/10.15468/dl.dhbphb





Senecio madagascariensis



African



Alter soil nutrient cycles, damage to agricultural crops, and outcompete native species. It also contains substances that are toxic to both animals and humans. 



(Wijayabandara et al., 2021)



https://doi.org/10.15468/dl.7e8eyx





Thunbergia alata



African



Displace native species and reduce habitat heterogeneity, thereby affecting the structure and function of native ecosystems.



(Cárdenas López et al., 2017; Quijano-Abril et al., 2021)



https://doi.org/10.15468/dl.g9zybc





Ulex europeaus



Holarctic



Dry soil and increase the occurrence of fires. Inhibits vegetative growth, including pastures in agricultural and livestock lands.



(Anderson and Anderson, 2009; Cárdenas López et al., 2017)



https://doi.org/10.15468/dl.6642q9