DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.14627899
title: Data: Beetles, wind, and fire: effects of climate change and close-to-nature forestry on disturbance predisposition and ecosystem service trade-offs

description: The repository contains the data supporting the findings of the study: "Beetles, wind, and fire: effects of climate change and close-to-nature forestry on disturbance predisposition and ecosystem service trade-offs", which is related to the co-submitted methods article "Integrating fire predisposition assessment into decision support systems for mountain forest management"

Abstract: Close-to-nature forestry (CNF) is considered an effective strategy to adapt mountain forests to climate change while sustaining ecosystem services and biodiversity (BES). However, for forest management it remains unclear whether current CNF strategies sufficiently reduce forests’ predisposition to climate-change-induced shifts in disturbance regimes. To address this increasing complexity, we introduce the integration of the forest gap model ForClim with assessments of predisposition to fire, bark beetle, and windthrow disturbances, as well as BES provision. We conducted simulations for a forest enterprise in the Central Swiss Alps, covering a large elevation gradient, under three climate scenarios (historical, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) and six management strategies, including CNF variants with different management intensities and climate-adapted approaches. Our results indicate that climate change will dynamically alter disturbance predisposition across elevation gradients. Site-related predisposition to fire and bark beetle infestation generally increased under climate change, while stand-related predisposition varied with climate scenario and elevation. Under moderate warming (SSP2-4.5), stand-related predisposition to fire and windthrow increased across all elevations. In contrast, under severe warming (SSP5-8.5), long-term reductions in stand-related predisposition to fire, bark beetle infestation, and windthrow occurred at lower elevations due to declining forest productivity, while predisposition increased at higher elevations with improved growing conditions. CNF emerged as a balanced approach for reducing predisposition to bark beetle infestation and windthrow while maintaining BES. However, CNF promoted stand characteristics that increase stand-related predisposition to forest fires. Our results further show that increasing management intensity generally reduces stand-related disturbance predisposition but can also lead to trade-offs, such as reduced BES provision. We conclude that climate-adapted forest management must account for both stand-related and site-related predisposition to prioritize disturbance-prone ‘hotspots’, especially in areas of high BES value. Proactively reducing disturbance predisposition may involve short-term trade-offs regarding BES provision but may be crucial to avoid larger, long-term BES losses from severe disturbances. Our study underscores the need for decision support systems to support informed decision-making in mountain forest management.

Data: A comprehensive overview of the data provided is documented in the PDF "00_README_data_description.pdf".

This study was conducted as part of the ONEforest project, which received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the grant agreement Nº 101000406.