DOI: 10.5061/dryad.g4f4qrg2r
title: Data from: Archaeological data with AI- and physics-based modeling explain typhoon-induced disasters in inland China around 3000 BP

description: Climate change-related extreme events during the mid-late Holocene,
 especially around 3000 years before the present (yr B.P.), severely
 threatened human survival and cultural development at various locations.
 However, although marked social change during this period in China have
 also been reported to coincide with extreme disasters, the causes and
 impacts of these events remain unclear. Here, we aligned paleoclimate
 reconstructions with quantitative analyses of archeological evidence,
 including oracle bone scripts, together with artificial intelligence- and
 physics-based model simulations to uncover the causes. We found that
 intensified typhoon activities exerted considerable impacts on climate
 extremes and social change in inland China around 3000 yr B.P. These
 findings underscore the urgent need to improve preparedness for
 today's typhoon-induced disasters in the context of accelerating
 climate change.
description: # Data from: Archaeological data with AI- and physics-based modeling
 explain typhoon-induced disasters in inland China around 3000 BP Dataset
 DOI: [10.5061/dryad.g4f4qrg2r](10.5061/dryad.g4f4qrg2r) ## Description of
 the data and file structure * Each file named in the format Fig.XXX*
 provides the data used to generate the corresponding Fig. XXX in the
 manuscript. - For example, the file Fig1A.nc contains the data used in
 Fig. 1A. If the data consist only of time series or site locations, they
 are provided in .xlsx format. * If the data include two-dimensional
 meteorological fields or other gridded variables, they are provided in .nc
 (NetCDF) format to facilitate access and analysis. Please refer to the
 file names for correspondence with the figures in the manuscript. ###
 Files and variables #### File: Fig1A.nc **Description:**  * Purpose: This
 NetCDF file provides the gridded typhoon-occurrence probability field in
 modern times (1950–2021) and the archaeological site coordinates used to
 generate Fig. 1A, which maps spatial patterns of typhoon exposure and
 overlays site locations in the Central Plains and Chengdu Plain. Variables
 and definitions: * Typhoon_occurrence_probability (unit: %) — A 2-D field
 representing the typhoon occurrence probability during 1950–2021. - XLONG
 (unit: degrees) and XLAT (unit: degrees) — 2-D longitude/latitude arrays
 defining the geographic grid for the probability field. *
 Archeological_site_in_Central_Plains_lon/lat — Longitude/latitude
 (degrees) of archaeological sites in the Central Plains. -
 Archeological_site_in_Chengdu_Plain_lon/lat — Longitude/latitude (degrees)
 of archaeological sites in the Chengdu Plain. #### File: Fig1B.xlsx
 **Description:**  * Purpose: This Excel file provides the time-series data
 used to generate Fig. 1B, which compares (i) population-size changes in
 the Central Plains (represented by the reconstructed SPD) with normalized
 northward typhoon activity (upper panel), and (ii) archaeological site
 numbers in the Chengdu Plain with westward typhoon activity (lower panel),
 as described in the manuscript. File structure (worksheets and variables):
 Sheet: SCP_CP_all * Year (BP) — years before present corresponding to SPD
 in Central Plains of China - SPD in Central Plains of China —
 reconstructed summed probability distribution (SPD; dimensionless), used
 as a population-size proxy in Fig. 1B (upper panel) Sheet:
 Remains_Chengdu_Plain * Year (BP) — years before present corresponding to
 Archeological site number - Archeological site number — number of
 archaeological sites in the Chengdu Plain (unit: count), used in Fig. 1B
 (lower panel) Sheet: Typhoon_northward_normalize * Year (BP) — years
 before present corresponding to Normalized northward typhoon activity -
 Normalized northward typhoon activity — dimensionless normalized index
 representing northward typhoon activity reconstructed from paleo-typhoon
 proxies * Average normalized northward typhoon activity (1850-1950) —
 reference-period mean value used to plot the dashed average line for
 northward typhoon activity in Fig. 1B (1850-1950 CE) Sheet:
 Ave_Nor_TY(1850-1950) * Average Normalized westward typhoon activity
 (1850-1950) — reference-period mean value used to plot the dashed average
 line for westward typhoon activity in Fig. 1B (1850–1950 CE) - Third-party
 data notice (CC0 compliance): The Normalized westward typhoon activity in
 this study was computed by normalizing a raw westward typhoon activity
 time series derived from Fig. 5(a) of Li, P., Li, M., Gan, H., & Xia,
 Z. (2021). A preliminary study on sediment records of possible typhoon in
 the northern South China Sea during the past 6500 yr. The Holocene, 31,
 1221–1228; this third-party time series is not redistributed in this Dryad
 package because Dryad requires CC0, and readers should obtain it from the
 original publication and cite Li et al. (2021). Only the reference-period
 mean for 1850–1950 CE is provided here for plotting the dashed line in
 Fig. 1B. #### File: Fig2C.xlsx **Description:**  * Purpose: This Excel
 file contains the quantitative reconstructions used to generate Fig. 2C,
 showing temporal variations in the (upcoming) rain pieces ratio (RR) and
 the (upcoming) heavy rain pieces ratio (HRR) inferred from oracle bone
 scripts for the Central Plains. These reconstructed ratios are compared in
 the manuscript with paleo-typhoon activity records from southwestern Japan
 and South Korea, to show the impact of northward typhoon on the Central
 Plains of China. Worksheet: Rainfall record(Fig.2C) Variables and
 definitions: * Time range (BP) — Time bin in years before present
 corresponding to each oracle bone script phase used in Fig. 2C. - Rainfall
 record ratio (%) — Percentage of oracle bone script pieces within each
 time bin that record (upcoming) rainfall. * Heavy rainfall record ratio
 (%) — Percentage of oracle bone script pieces within each time bin that
 record (upcoming) heavy rainfall. - Third-party data notice (CC0
 compliance): The typhoon-activity series for southwestern Japan (KI) and
 South Korea (YR) shown in Fig. 2C are based on previously published
 materials and are not redistributed in this Dryad package because Dryad
 requires CC0. Readers should obtain the original materials from the
 original publications and cite: Woodruff, J. D., Donnelly, J. P., &
 Okusu, A. (2009). Exploring typhoon variability over the mid-to-late
 Holocene: evidence of extreme coastal flooding from Kamikoshiki, Japan.
 Quaternary Science Reviews, 28, 1774–1785 (see Fig. 7). Lim, J., Lee,
 J.-Y., Hong, S.-S., & Kim, J.-Y. (2013). Late Holocene flooding
 records from the floodplain deposits of the Yugu River, South Korea.
 Geomorphology, 180–181, 109–119 (see Fig. 9A). #### File: Fig2D.nc *
 Description:  Purpose: NetCDF file containing the gridded datasets used to
 generate Fig. 2D (IMERG precipitation, ERA5 winds, typhoon best-track, and
 terrain elevation), used to demonstrate a modern case in which a northward
 typhoon triggers extreme rainfall and flooding over the Central Plains
 region of China. Variables and definitions: * Rainfall_IMERG (unit: mm) —
 Daily accumulated precipitation, with coordinate fields Lat_for_Rain and
 Lon_for_Rain for plotting. - U, V (unit: m/s) — Horizontal wind components
 used for plotting wind vectors in Fig. 2D，with coordinate fields
 Lon_for_Wind, Lat_for_Wind (2D) for plotting. * Lon_Typhoon_track,
 Lat_Typhoon_track (unit: degrees) — Best-track typhoon center positions at
 12UTC. - Terrain (unit: m) — Terrain height for the plotted domain，with
 coordinate fields Lon_terrain, Lat_terrain for plotting. #### File:
 Fig3A.xlsx * Description:  Purpose: Demonstrate the archaeological
 evidence of flood occurrence in the Chengdu Plain and its temporal
 co-variation with westward typhoon activity, including (i) the growth rate
 of archaeological site numbers and (ii) the ratio of sites containing
 flood layers, as used to generate Fig. 3A in the manuscript.The goal is to
 show the impacts of westward typhoons on flooding and social change in
 Chengdu Plain. Worksheet: Growth Rate in number * Variables and
 definitions: - Year_for_Growth_rate (BP) — Time bin in years before
 present corresponding to Growht_rate. * Growht_rate(%) — Growth rate of
 the number of archeological sites within each time bin. Worksheet:
 Flood_Ratio Variables and definitions: * Year (BP) — Time bin in years
 before present corresponding to Flood Ratio. - Flood Ratio (%) —
 Percentage of archaeological sites within each time bin that contain
 identified flood layers. * Third-party data notice (CC0 compliance): The
 westward typhoon activity series shown in Fig. 3A is based on previously
 published material and is not redistributed in this Dryad package because
 Dryad requires CC0. Readers should obtain the original material from the
 original publication and cite: Li, P., Li, M., Gan, H., & Xia, Z.
 (2021). A preliminary study on sediment records of possible typhoon in the
 northern South China Sea during the past 6500 yr. Holocene, 31, 1221–1228
 (see Fig. 5a). #### File: Fig3B.nc * Description:  Purpose: NetCDF file
 containing the gridded datasets used to generate Fig. 3B (CMFD
 precipitation, ERA5 precipitation, ERA5 winds, typhoon best-track), used
 to demonstrate a modern case in which a westward typhoon triggers extreme
 rainfall and flooding over Chengdu Plain. Variables and definitions: *
 Rain_CMFD (unit: mm) — Daily accumulated precipitation, with coordinate
 fields lat_rain_CMFD and lon_rain_CMFD for plotting. - Rain_ERA5 (unit:
 mm) — Daily accumulated precipitation, with coordinate fields lat_rain and
 lon_rain for plotting. * U_ERA5, V_ERA5 (unit: m/s) — Horizontal wind
 components for wind vectors, with coordinate fields lon_wind and lat_wind
 for plotting. - typhoon_track_lat, typhoon_track_lon (unit: degrees) —
 Best-track typhoon center positions at 12UTC. #### File: Fig3C_D.xlsx *
 Purpose: Excel file containing the geographic coordinates
 (longitude/latitude) of archaeological sites used to generate Fig. 3C–D,
 which compares the spatial distribution of sites in Chengdu Plain during
 two time windows associated with weaker vs. stronger westward typhoon
 activity. Worksheets: * Archeological site(3000-3100BP) — site locations
 for the earlier window (~3100–3000 BP; corresponds to the weak westward
 typhoon period shown in Fig. 3C). - Archeological site(2700-2800BP) — site
 locations for the later window (~2800–2700 BP; corresponds to the strong
 westward typhoon period shown in Fig. 3D). Variables and definitions (same
 in each worksheet): * longitude (unit: degrees) — site longitude -
 latitude (unit: degrees) — site latitude #### File: Fig4A_B.nc * Purpose：
 This NetCDF file provides the data for Fig. 4A–B (northward typhoons). It
 is designed to examine how changes in typhoon intensity affect moisture
 flux convergence (MFC), and thereby inform the simulated changes in
 extreme rainfall. Specifically, the file includes 850 hPa wind fields (U,
 V) and specific humidity (SH) for the composite environment, as well as an
 MFC bias field (MFC_bias) representing the difference between simulations
 with strong versus weak typhoons. It also contains the tracks for weak and
 strong typhoons and the locations of flood deposits around ~3000 BP used
 as reference points in the figure. Variables and definitions * SH (unit:
 kg/kg) — A 2-D field of 850-hPa specific humidity composited during
 northward typhoon occurrences, with coordinate fields Lat and Lon for
 plotting (used for Fig. 4A). - U (unit: m/s) and V (unit: m/s) — 2-D
 fields of 850-hPa wind components (zonal/meridional) composited during
 northward typhoon occurrences, with coordinate fields Lat and Lon for
 plotting (used for Fig. 4A). * MFC_bias (unit: kg/kg/s) — A 2-D field
 representing the intensity-related change in MFC, defined as the
 difference in the upper-quartile of maximum moisture flux convergence
 (MFC) between simulations with strong and weak northward typhoons (strong
 − weak; used for Fig. 4B), designed to explore how typhoon intensity
 changes modulate MFC.The coordinate fields are Lat and Lon. -
 Typhoon_weak_track_lon/lat (unit: degrees) — Longitude/latitude arrays
 describ the tracks of weak northward typhoons. *
 Typhoon_strong_track_lon/lat (unit: degrees) — Longitude/latitude arrays
 describ the tracks of strong northward typhoons. -
 Flood_deposition_location_lon/lat (unit: degrees) — Longitude/latitude
 arrays give the locations of flood deposits documenting flood events
 around ~3000 BP. #### File: Fig4D_E.nc Same as Fig4A_B.nc but for westward
 typhoons. #### File: Fig4C_F.xlsx * Purpose: Excel file containing paired
 daily values of moisture flux convergence (MFC) and rainfall used to
 generate Fig. 4C and Fig. 4F, which quantify the MFC–rainfall relationship
 and support analyses of how changes in typhoon intensity may influence
 extreme rainfall via changes in MFC. Worksheets: * Fig.4C — paired MFC and
 daily rainfall samples for the Central Plains. - Fig.4F — paired MFC and
 daily rainfall samples for Chengdu Plain. Variables and definitions (same
 in each worksheet): * MFC (unit: kg/kg/s) — moisture flux convergence. -
 Rainfall (unit: mm/day) — daily rainfall corresponding to the MFC value.
 #### Access information Other publicly accessible locations of the data:
 Rainfall data (ERA5_land) is from
 [https://www.ecmwf.int/en/era5-land](https://www.ecmwf.int/en/era5-land).
 Rainfall data (CMFD) is available at 
 [https://data.tpdc.ac.cn/en/data/8028b944-daaa-4511-8769-965612652c49/](https://data.tpdc.ac.cn/en/data/8028b944-daaa-4511-8769-965612652c49/). Meteorological data of wind, specific humidity, and geopotential height are from ERA5: [https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/dataset/ecmwf-reanalysis-v5](https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/dataset/ecmwf-reanalysis-v5). Typhoon tracks data (CMABSTdata) is openly accessible at [https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/zjljsjj.html](https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/zjljsjj.html). The satellite precipitation data is from Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG), which is available at [https://gpm.nasa.gov/data/imerg](https://gpm.nasa.gov/data/imerg). The source code of the WRF model is available from [http://www2.mmm.ucar.edu/wrf/users/download/get_sources.html](http://www2.mmm.ucar.edu/wrf/users/download/get_sources.html). The related data sources have been provided in the main manuscript.