cometadata/datacite-titles-descriptions-related-identifiers huggingface dataset:
DOI: 10.3886/e114121
title: Replication data for: Oil and Macroeconomic (In)stability

description: We analyze the role of oil price volatility in reducing U.S. macroeconomic instability. Using a Markov Switching Rational Expectation New-Keynesian model we revisit the timing of the Great Moderation and the sources of changes in the volatility of macroeconomic variables. We find that smaller or fewer oil price shocks did not play a major role in explaining the Great Moderation. Instead oil price shocks are recurrent sources of economic fluctuations. The most important factor reducing overall variability is a decline in the volatility of structural macroeconomic shocks. A change to a more responsive (hawkish) monetary policy regime also played a role.
DOI: 10.3886/e114121v1
title: Replication data for: Oil and Macroeconomic (In)stability

description: We analyze the role of oil price volatility in reducing U.S. macroeconomic instability. Using a Markov Switching Rational Expectation New-Keynesian model we revisit the timing of the Great Moderation and the sources of changes in the volatility of macroeconomic variables. We find that smaller or fewer oil price shocks did not play a major role in explaining the Great Moderation. Instead oil price shocks are recurrent sources of economic fluctuations. The most important factor reducing overall variability is a decline in the volatility of structural macroeconomic shocks. A change to a more responsive (hawkish) monetary policy regime also played a role.
DOI: 10.3886/e114234
title: Replication data for: The Bond Premium in a DSGE Model with Long-Run Real and Nominal Risks

description: The term premium in standard macroeconomic DSGE models is far too small and stable relative to the data—an example of the "bond premium puzzle." However, in endowment economy models, researchers have generated reasonable term premiums by assuming investors have recursive Epstein-Zin preferences and face long-run economic risks. We show that introducing Epstein-Zin preferences into a canonical DSGE model can also produce a large and variable term premium without compromising the model's ability to fit key macroeconomic variables. Long-run nominal risks further improve the model's empirical fit, but do not substantially reduce the need for high risk aversion. (JEL E13, E31, E43, E44)
DOI: 10.3886/e114234v1
title: Replication data for: The Bond Premium in a DSGE Model with Long-Run Real and Nominal Risks

description: The term premium in standard macroeconomic DSGE models is far too small and stable relative to the data—an example of the "bond premium puzzle." However, in endowment economy models, researchers have generated reasonable term premiums by assuming investors have recursive Epstein-Zin preferences and face long-run economic risks. We show that introducing Epstein-Zin preferences into a canonical DSGE model can also produce a large and variable term premium without compromising the model's ability to fit key macroeconomic variables. Long-run nominal risks further improve the model's empirical fit, but do not substantially reduce the need for high risk aversion. (JEL E13, E31, E43, E44)
DOI: 10.3886/e114235
title: Replication data for: International Portfolio Allocation under Model Uncertainty

description: This paper revisits an old argument, hedging real exchange rate risk, as an explanation of the international home bias in equity. In a dynamic model, the relevant risk to be hedged is the long-run risk as opposed to the short-run risk. Domestic equity is indeed a good hedge with respect to long-run real-exchange-rate risk. Two new frameworks are able to explain a large share of the observed US home bias: a model with Hansen-Sargent preferences in which agents fear model misspecification and a model with Epstein-Zin preferences. These two models are also immune to the risk-free rate puzzle. (JEL C58, F31, G11, G15)
DOI: 10.3886/e114235v1
title: Replication data for: International Portfolio Allocation under Model Uncertainty

description: This paper revisits an old argument, hedging real exchange rate risk, as an explanation of the international home bias in equity. In a dynamic model, the relevant risk to be hedged is the long-run risk as opposed to the short-run risk. Domestic equity is indeed a good hedge with respect to long-run real-exchange-rate risk. Two new frameworks are able to explain a large share of the observed US home bias: a model with Hansen-Sargent preferences in which agents fear model misspecification and a model with Epstein-Zin preferences. These two models are also immune to the risk-free rate puzzle. (JEL C58, F31, G11, G15)
DOI: 10.3886/e114236
title: Replication data for: Tranching, CDS, and Asset Prices: How Financial Innovation Can Cause Bubbles and Crashes

description: We show how the timing of financial innovation might have contributed to the mortgage bubble and then to the crash of 2007-2009. We show why tranching and leverage first raised asset prices and why CDS lowered them afterward. This may seem puzzling, since it implies that creating a derivative tranche in the securitization whose payoffs are identical to the CDS will raise the underlying asset price, while the CDS outside the securitization lowers it. The resolution of the puzzle is that the CDS lowers the value of the underlying asset since it is equivalent to tranching cash. (JEL E32, E44, G01, G12, G13, G21).
DOI: 10.3886/e114236v1
title: Replication data for: Tranching, CDS, and Asset Prices: How Financial Innovation Can Cause Bubbles and Crashes

description: We show how the timing of financial innovation might have contributed to the mortgage bubble and then to the crash of 2007-2009. We show why tranching and leverage first raised asset prices and why CDS lowered them afterward. This may seem puzzling, since it implies that creating a derivative tranche in the securitization whose payoffs are identical to the CDS will raise the underlying asset price, while the CDS outside the securitization lowers it. The resolution of the puzzle is that the CDS lowers the value of the underlying asset since it is equivalent to tranching cash. (JEL E32, E44, G01, G12, G13, G21).
DOI: 10.3886/e114237
title: Replication data for: Stories of the Twentieth Century for the Twenty-First

description: A key precursor of twentieth-century financial crises in emerging and advanced economies alike was the rapid buildup of leverage. Those emerging economies that avoided leverage booms during the 2000s also were most likely to avoid the worst effects of the twenty-first century's first global crisis. A discrete-choice panel analysis using 1973-2010 data suggests that domestic credit expansion and real currency appreciation have been the most robust and significant predictors of financial crises, regardless of whether a country is emerging or advanced. For emerging economies, however, higher foreign exchange reserves predict a sharply reduced probability of a subsequent crisis. (JEL E44, F34, F44, G01, G21, O19)
DOI: 10.3886/e114237v1
title: Replication data for: Stories of the Twentieth Century for the Twenty-First

description: A key precursor of twentieth-century financial crises in emerging and advanced economies alike was the rapid buildup of leverage. Those emerging economies that avoided leverage booms during the 2000s also were most likely to avoid the worst effects of the twenty-first century's first global crisis. A discrete-choice panel analysis using 1973-2010 data suggests that domestic credit expansion and real currency appreciation have been the most robust and significant predictors of financial crises, regardless of whether a country is emerging or advanced. For emerging economies, however, higher foreign exchange reserves predict a sharply reduced probability of a subsequent crisis. (JEL E44, F34, F44, G01, G21, O19)
DOI: 10.3886/e114507
title: Replication data for: An Economist's Perspective on the Bitcoin Payment System

description: The paper's introduction offers a high-level review of Bitcoin's features, especially its governance by protocol. The paper proceeds to summarize Bitcoin's analysis as a payment system. It pays particular attention to a comparison between Bitcoin and a firm-run payment system.
DOI: 10.3886/e114507v1
title: Replication data for: An Economist's Perspective on the Bitcoin Payment System

description: The paper's introduction offers a high-level review of Bitcoin's features, especially its governance by protocol. The paper proceeds to summarize Bitcoin's analysis as a payment system. It pays particular attention to a comparison between Bitcoin and a firm-run payment system.
DOI: 10.3886/e114508
title: Replication data for: Ending Rent Control Reduced Crime in Cambridge

description: Using detailed location-specific criminal incident-level data, we find that sudden rent decontrol in Cambridge, Massachusetts in 1995 caused overall crime to fall by 16 percent—approximately 1,200 crimes annually. We estimate that this annual direct benefit to Cambridge residents was roughly $10 million (in 2008 dollars), accounting for 10 percent of the growth in the Cambridge residential property values attributable to decontrol.
DOI: 10.3886/e114508v1
title: Replication data for: Ending Rent Control Reduced Crime in Cambridge

description: Using detailed location-specific criminal incident-level data, we find that sudden rent decontrol in Cambridge, Massachusetts in 1995 caused overall crime to fall by 16 percent—approximately 1,200 crimes annually. We estimate that this annual direct benefit to Cambridge residents was roughly $10 million (in 2008 dollars), accounting for 10 percent of the growth in the Cambridge residential property values attributable to decontrol.
DOI: 10.3886/e114509
title: Replication data for: The Effects of Second-Generation Rent Control on Land Values

description: Second generation rent control seeks to prevent negative quantity effects by exempting newly built units. The artificially lowered rent in the controlled segment makes renting attractive for households that would otherwise not have rented in the market, replacing households with higher willingness to pay for housing. These households bid up prices in the free market segment, giving rise to an opposite-sign spillover from the controlled to the free market (Mense, Michelsen, and Kholodilin 2017). This paper documents a positive effect of "second generation" rent control on the value of vacant, buildable land.
DOI: 10.3886/e114509v1
title: Replication data for: The Effects of Second-Generation Rent Control on Land Values

description: Second generation rent control seeks to prevent negative quantity effects by exempting newly built units. The artificially lowered rent in the controlled segment makes renting attractive for households that would otherwise not have rented in the market, replacing households with higher willingness to pay for housing. These households bid up prices in the free market segment, giving rise to an opposite-sign spillover from the controlled to the free market (Mense, Michelsen, and Kholodilin 2017). This paper documents a positive effect of "second generation" rent control on the value of vacant, buildable land.
DOI: 10.3886/e114510v1
title: Replication data for: Spatial Misallocation and Rent Controls

description: In many global cities the rental housing market is partially regulated. We document that the Paris housing market is dual: a flexible rent sector coexists with a large controlled rent sector. The two sectors have very different rent gradients towards the center of the agglomeration. We develop a model explicitly accounting for these features which allows to investigate general equilibrium effects of rent controls at the city level. In this framework the coexistence of a controlled and flexible rent sector increases the spatial misallocation of households. This mismatch can generally be alleviated by an improvement in urban transport infrastructures.
DOI: 10.3886/e114698
title: Replication data for: The Persistent Effects of Place-Based Policy: Evidence from the West-German Zonenrandgebiet

description: Using a natural experiment, we show that temporary place-based subsidies generate persistent effects on economic density. The spatial regression discontinuity design controls for continuous local agglomeration externalities, so we attribute an important role to capital formation in explaining persistent spatial patterns of economic activity. This persistence is driven by higher local public investment levels, which local governments could maintain after the end of the program because of a persistently higher tax base. We also find evidence for significant local relocation of economic activity, which raises doubts that the net effect of the policy is positive. Finally, we show that transfers have capitalized in land rents such that pretreatment land owners have benefited from the program.
DOI: 10.3886/e114699
title: Replication data for: A Macroeconomic Approach to Optimal Unemployment Insurance: Applications

description: In the United States, unemployment insurance (UI) is more generous when unemployment is high. This paper examines whether this policy is desirable. The optimal UI replacement rate is the Baily-Chetty replacement rate plus a correction term measuring the effect of UI on welfare through labor market tightness. Empirical evidence suggests that tightness is inefficiently low in slumps and inefficiently high in booms, and that an increase in UI raises tightness. Hence, the correction term is positive in slumps but negative in booms, and optimal UI is indeed countercyclical. Since there remains some uncertainty about the empirical evidence, the paper provides a thorough sensitivity analysis.
DOI: 10.3886/e114699v1
title: Replication data for: A Macroeconomic Approach to Optimal Unemployment Insurance: Applications

description: In the United States, unemployment insurance (UI) is more generous when unemployment is high. This paper examines whether this policy is desirable. The optimal UI replacement rate is the Baily-Chetty replacement rate plus a correction term measuring the effect of UI on welfare through labor market tightness. Empirical evidence suggests that tightness is inefficiently low in slumps and inefficiently high in booms, and that an increase in UI raises tightness. Hence, the correction term is positive in slumps but negative in booms, and optimal UI is indeed countercyclical. Since there remains some uncertainty about the empirical evidence, the paper provides a thorough sensitivity analysis.
DOI: 10.3886/e114700
title: Replication data for: Geographic Cross-Sectional Fiscal Spending Multipliers: What Have We Learned?

description: A geographic cross-sectional fiscal spending multiplier measures the effect of an increase in spending in one region of a monetary union. Empirical studies of such multipliers have proliferated. I review this research and what the evidence implies for national multipliers. Based on an updated analysis of the ARRA and a survey of empirical studies, my preferred point estimate for a cross-sectional multiplier is 1.8. The paper also discusses conditions under which the cross-sectional multiplier provides a rough lower bound for the national, no-monetary-policy-response multiplier. Putting these elements together, the cross-sectional evidence suggests a national no-monetary-policy-response multiplier of 1.7 or above.
DOI: 10.3886/e114700v1
title: Replication data for: Geographic Cross-Sectional Fiscal Spending Multipliers: What Have We Learned?

description: A geographic cross-sectional fiscal spending multiplier measures the effect of an increase in spending in one region of a monetary union. Empirical studies of such multipliers have proliferated. I review this research and what the evidence implies for national multipliers. Based on an updated analysis of the ARRA and a survey of empirical studies, my preferred point estimate for a cross-sectional multiplier is 1.8. The paper also discusses conditions under which the cross-sectional multiplier provides a rough lower bound for the national, no-monetary-policy-response multiplier. Putting these elements together, the cross-sectional evidence suggests a national no-monetary-policy-response multiplier of 1.7 or above.
DOI: 10.3886/e114701
title: Replication data for: Changing How Literacy Is Taught: Evidence on Synthetic Phonics

description: A significant number of people have very low levels of literacy in many OECD countries. This paper studies a national change in policy and practice in England that refocused the teaching of reading around "synthetic phonics." This was a low-cost intervention that targeted the pedagogy of existing teachers. We evaluate the pilot and first phase of the national rollout. While strong initial effects tend to fade out on average, they persist for those with children with a higher initial propensity to struggle with reading. As a result, this program helped narrow the gap between disadvantaged pupils and other groups.
DOI: 10.3886/e114701v1
title: Replication data for: Changing How Literacy Is Taught: Evidence on Synthetic Phonics

description: A significant number of people have very low levels of literacy in many OECD countries. This paper studies a national change in policy and practice in England that refocused the teaching of reading around "synthetic phonics." This was a low-cost intervention that targeted the pedagogy of existing teachers. We evaluate the pilot and first phase of the national rollout. While strong initial effects tend to fade out on average, they persist for those with children with a higher initial propensity to struggle with reading. As a result, this program helped narrow the gap between disadvantaged pupils and other groups.
DOI: 10.3886/e114702
title: Replication data for: A Letter and Encouragement: Does Information Increase Postsecondary Enrollment of UI Recipients?

description: For individuals who experience job loss, enrollment in postsecondary programs may provide an opportunity to improve future employment outcomes. However, decisions to enroll may be hampered by insufficient information about the benefits and costs and the necessary steps and assistance available to facilitate such investments. Using variation in the dissemination and timing of letters sent to Unemployment Insurance (UI) recipients containing this information, we find that individuals sent the information are 40 percent more likely to enroll. These findings suggest that well coordinated information interventions delivered with institutional support may be more effective than raising the generosity of existing government programs in increasing participation.
DOI: 10.3886/e114702v1
title: Replication data for: A Letter and Encouragement: Does Information Increase Postsecondary Enrollment of UI Recipients?

description: For individuals who experience job loss, enrollment in postsecondary programs may provide an opportunity to improve future employment outcomes. However, decisions to enroll may be hampered by insufficient information about the benefits and costs and the necessary steps and assistance available to facilitate such investments. Using variation in the dissemination and timing of letters sent to Unemployment Insurance (UI) recipients containing this information, we find that individuals sent the information are 40 percent more likely to enroll. These findings suggest that well coordinated information interventions delivered with institutional support may be more effective than raising the generosity of existing government programs in increasing participation.
DOI: 10.3886/e113746
title: Replication data for: Malaria Eradication in the Americas: A Retrospective Analysis of Childhood Exposure

description: This study uses the malaria-eradication campaigns in the United States (circa 1920) and in Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico (circa 1955) to measure how much childhood exposure to malaria depresses labor productivity. The campaigns began because of advances in health technology, which mitigates concerns about reverse causality. Malarious areas saw large drops in the disease thereafter. Relative to non-malarious areas, cohorts born after eradication had higher income as adults than the preceding generation. These cross-cohort changes coincided with childhood exposure to the campaigns rather than to pre-existing trends. Estimates suggest a substantial, though not predominant, role for malaria in explaining cross-region differences in income. (JEL I12, I18, J13, O15)
DOI: 10.3886/e113747
title: Replication data for: An Empirical Analysis of the Gender Gap in Mathematics

description: We document and analyze the emergence of a substantial gender gap in mathematics in the early years of schooling using a large, recent, and nationally representative panel of US children. There are no mean differences between boys and girls upon entry to school, but girls lose more than two-tenths of a standard deviation relative to boys over the first six years of school. The ground lost by girls relative to boys is roughly half as large as the black-white test score gap that appears over these same ages. We document the presence of this gender math gap across every strata of society. We explore a wide range of possible explanations in the data, including less investment by girls in math, low parental expectations, and biased tests, but find little support for these theories. Moving to cross-country comparisons, we find earlier results linking the gender gap in math to measures of gender equality are sensitive to the inclusion of Muslim countries, where, in spite of women's low status, there is little or no gender gap in math. (JEL I23, J26)
DOI: 10.3886/e113747v1
title: Replication data for: An Empirical Analysis of the Gender Gap in Mathematics

description: We document and analyze the emergence of a substantial gender gap in mathematics in the early years of schooling using a large, recent, and nationally representative panel of US children. There are no mean differences between boys and girls upon entry to school, but girls lose more than two-tenths of a standard deviation relative to boys over the first six years of school. The ground lost by girls relative to boys is roughly half as large as the black-white test score gap that appears over these same ages. We document the presence of this gender math gap across every strata of society. We explore a wide range of possible explanations in the data, including less investment by girls in math, low parental expectations, and biased tests, but find little support for these theories. Moving to cross-country comparisons, we find earlier results linking the gender gap in math to measures of gender equality are sensitive to the inclusion of Muslim countries, where, in spite of women's low status, there is little or no gender gap in math. (JEL I23, J26)
DOI: 10.3886/e113748
title: Replication data for: Identification of Social Interactions through Partially Overlapping Peer Groups

description: In this paper, we demonstrate that, in a context where peer groups do not overlap fully, it is possible to identify all the relevant parameters of the standard linear-in-means model of social interactions. We apply this novel identification structure to study peer effects in the choice of college major. Results show that one is more likely to choose a major when many of her peers make the same choice. We also show that peers can divert students from majors in which they have a relative ability advantage, with adverse consequences on academic performance, entry wages, and job satisfaction. (JEL I23, J24, J31, Z13)