DOI: 10.5061/dryad.n5tb2rbsh
title: Data from: Combined mechanistic modelling predicts changes in species distribution and increased co-occurrence of a tropical urchin herbivore and a habitat-forming temperate kelp

description: This dataset aims to identify climate change impacts on spawning and
 settlement of a tropical herbivore, the sea-urchin, Tripneustes gratilla,
 along eastern Australia and into the Tasman Sea including Lord Howe
 Island. The dataset contains the trajectories of particles that represent
 T. gratilla larvae and their dispersal by ocean currents for each day of
 both a contemporary (2006-2015) and future ‘business as usual’ RCP 8.5
 climate change scenario (2090-2100). T. gratilla larval dispersal under
 both climate scenarios is simulated using the Connectivity Modelling
 System (CMS). Particles are advected in CMS by 3D velocity fields produced
 with a state-of-the-art configuration of the Ocean Forecasting Model
 version 3 (OFAM3) that simulates the contemporary oceanic environment and
 projects it under an RCP8.5 climate change scenario. Spawning and
 settlement of particles within CMS are based on known biological traits of
 T. gratilla.
description: This dataset contains the trajectories of particles that
 represent the dispersal of <em>Tripneustes gratilla</em>
 larvae by ocean currents. The trajectories are given by the position
 (longitude, latitude, and depth) of the larvae over time (every day). The
 Connectivity Modelling System version 1.0 (CMS) (Paris et al., 2013) was
 the Lagrangian particle tracking system used to simulate the dispersal of
 virtual <em>T. gratilla </em>sea urchin larvae. The
 oceanographic data used to forecast the impact of climate change on the
 dispersal of <em>T. gratilla </em>came from the Ocean
 Forecasting Australian Model version 3 (OFAM3, (Oke et al., 2013)
 configured to downscale and project future climate as detailed in Zhang et
 al. (2016) and Feng, Zhang, Sloyan, and Chamberlain (2017). The future
 climate scenario projected by OFAM3 was the Representative Concentration
 Pathway 8.5 (RCP 8.5), which is a 'business as usual' emissions
 scenario (van Vurren et al., 2011). <em>T. gratilla
 </em>larvae were advected both horizontally and vertically in CMS
 with 3-dimensional velocity fields produced by OFAM3; that is with ocean
 current vectors defined by north-south, east-west, and up-down components.
 Additionally, diffusion is implemented following the method described in
 Cetina-Heredia et al. 2015, 2019. Particle releases in CMS were based on
 known biological spawning behaviours of adult <em>T.
 gratilla</em>, and advection was simulated over a time period that
 corresponds to <em>T. gratilla's</em> pelagic larval
 duration (PLD). This dataset includes the trajectories of the sea urchin
 larvae for each year of a contemporary (2006-2015) and future (2090-2100)
 RCP 8.5 carbon emissions scenario. Trajectories are stored as Matlab
 files.
description: Each yearly Matlab trajectory file contains the following
 information: dep - the daily depth recorded for each
 particle released during its trajectory. distance - how
 far the particle has travelled (km) since it's release during its
 trajectory exitcode - the CMS exit code allocated to
 each particle at the end of it's trajectory. Exit codes are explained
 in the CMS manual. https://github.com/beatrixparis/connectivity-modeling-system/blob/master/User-Guide-v2.pdf ind_nan - the length of the particle's trajectory lat - the daily latitude recorded for each particle during its trajectory location - the number of each particle released lon - the daily longitude recorded for each particle during its trajectory p_dt_ref - release date for each particle recorded as a Matlab number release_date - release date for each particle recorded as a Gregorian number temp - the daily temperature recorded for each particle during its trajectory The above variables are either recorded as a one-dimensional array or two-dimensional matrix. The one-dimensional array's length = number of partices released in a year. The two-dimensional matrix includes both the number of particles released in a year and the number of days the particle travelled.