DOI: 10.26180/25156304.v1
title: Modelling safety choices during the lifetime transition of vehicles through the fleet (MUARC Report No. 368).

description: There are three key points in a vehicle’s transition through the fleet that affect road safety outcomes. These are: (i) vehicle import/initial sale; (ii) second-hand sales to other parties; and (iii) scrappage, where the vehicle leaves the fleet. The most important point is where the vehicle enters the fleet (whether new or a used imported vehicle), as a given vehicle arriving in the fleet will affect fleet safety for the life of the vehicle, but it is also important to consider who is driving which vehicle.Data were analysed from both Victoria and New Zealand. Victorian Police-reported crash data (1987-2017) and VicRoads registration data (1998-2015) were used separately and in combination to investigate the crashworthiness performance of vehicles relative to year of manufacture and within market group across owner or driver characteristics such as age, sex, type of registered use and residential location. New Zealand crash data were matched to licensing data, including 2,894,704 4-wheeled light passenger vehicles as at 31 December 2013, 2,961,415 as at the end of 2014 and 3,062,283 as at the end of 2015.By far the greatest benefit to road safety occurs when the vehicles entering the fleet (whether new or used imports) have improved safety. This highlights the importance of both regulation that leads to safer vehicle choices and increased value placed by consumers on safety features (which can be supported by promotion of the vehicle safety ratings). As business and government fleets are an important source of new vehicles, this segment of the fleet is highly amenable to policies and tax incentives in favour of safer vehicles. However, there needs to be additional focus on safe vehicle choices by private buyers of new vehicles since analysis showed this group is less likely to make safe vehicle choices compared to business and government. Females and regional/rural buyers should be a particular focus within this group for improving safe vehicle choices.Two driver groups that are particularly vulnerable to crashes and would benefit from safer vehicles are young drivers (because of their high risk of crash involvement) and older drivers (because of their liability to be injured and killed). Both these groups currently have vehicles with poor secondary safety. For young driver vehicle choices, a particularly important focus is their parents, who need to appreciate the value of superior secondary safety for their young person’s vehicle since the vehicles have often been purchased by parents or other family members many years earlier. For older people, who often purchase relatively small, less safe, new vehicles which are then retained for long periods, there needs to be a focus on improving safe vehicle choices and for potentially upgrading to a newer safer vehicle later in old age.Despite changes in types and prices of vehicles seen in recent times potentially changing the current vehicle market compared to the data period assessed in this study, the broad general findings of the report are still likely to be relevant to informing current policy and practice. Specifically, businesses are still likely to be more flexible in prioritising safety features due to greater financial amenity enjoyed by businesses in vehicle purchases, novice drivers will still be the most financially constrained and be reliant on older vehicles handed down from other family members and older drivers are likely to still purchase vehicles at retirement and keep them for many years.