DOI: 10.7910/dvn/bxj1gk
title: Replication Data for: Minskian Capture: Financial Advisory Influence and the Federal Reserve, 1968–2025

description: This replication package contains all data and code necessary to reproduce the results in "Minskian Capture: Financial Advisory Influence and the Federal Reserve, 1968–2025." The code constructs the analysis dataset from two primary sources (Weise 2008; author's FOIA requests) and FRED macroeconomic data, then runs all analyses using Stata. A replicator should expect the code to run in approximately 15 minutes on a standard laptop.
description: Data Availability Statement
FAC Monetary Policy Dataset (1968–2025)
Provided: Yes (fac_master_1968_2025.dta)
The FAC monetary policy stance dataset was constructed by the author from two sources:

1968–2000: Coded from records reproduced in the appendix of Weise, C.L. (2008) "Private sector influences on monetary policy in the United States," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 40(2–3): 441–462. These records were originally obtained via FOIA request by Weise.
2000–2025: Coded by the author from FAC meeting records obtained via FOIA request to the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and from publicly available records on the Federal Reserve website (https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/fac.htm). Records from 2011 onward are publicly available; records from 2000–2010 were obtained via FOIA.

The author certifies legitimate access to and permission to distribute all data in this replication package.
FRED Macroeconomic Data
Provided: Yes (fred_data.dta)
Macroeconomic control variables were obtained from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database maintained by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/). All series are publicly available. Variables include:

Federal Funds Rate (FEDFUNDS)
Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL)
Unemployment Rate (UNRATE)
Real GDP (GDPC1)
Potential GDP (GDPPOT)

Data accessed: [DATE]
Underlying FAC Records
Provided: No (available via FOIA)
The underlying FAC meeting records from which the monetary policy stance variable was coded are available through FOIA request to the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Records from 2011 onward are publicly available at https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/fac.htm.

Computational Requirements
Software

Stata 17 (or later)

Required packages: outreg2, estout, coefplot
Installation: Run 00_setup.do to install all required packages



Hardware

Any standard laptop or desktop computer
Minimum 4GB RAM
Approximately 50MB disk space

Runtime

Total runtime: approximately 15 minutes
Tested on: macOS 14.0, Mac Mini M2, 16GB RAM


Description of Files
Data Files
FilenameDescriptionFormatfac_master_1968_2025.dtaFAC monetary policy stance, 231 quarterly observationsStata 17fac_master_1968_2025.csvFAC data in comma-separated formatCSVfred_data.dtaFRED macroeconomic variablesStata 17codebook_fac.pdfVariable definitions and coding protocolPDF
Code Files
FilenameDescriptionOrder00_setup.doInstall required Stata packagesRun first01_import_merge.doImport and merge data sources102_baseline_taylor.doTable 1: Augmented Taylor rule estimates203_crisis_type.doTable 2: FAC by crisis type304_regime_era.doTable 3: FAC by monetary policy era405_local_projections.doTable C1: Local projections IRF506_robustness.doTables C2–C6: Robustness checks607_granger.doTable D1: Three-source Granger causality7master.doRuns all analysis files in sequenceAlternative
Documentation
FilenameDescriptionREADME.txtThis filecodebook_fac.pdfVariable definitions and coding protocolllm_coding_prompts.txtPrompts used for LLM-assisted codingvalidation_results.txtCohen's kappa validation statistics
Output
FilenameDescription/tables/Folder containing all regression tables/figures/Folder containing all figures

Instructions for Replication
Quick Start

Open Stata
Set working directory: cd "[path to replication folder]"
Run master file: do master.do

Step-by-Step

Setup: Run 00_setup.do to install required packages
Data preparation: Run 01_import_merge.do to create analysis dataset
Main results: Run 02_baseline_taylor.do through 04_regime_era.do
Robustness: Run 05_local_projections.do through 07_granger.do

All tables and figures will be saved to /tables/ and /figures/ subdirectories.
Output Mapping
Paper ElementOutput FileCode FileTable 1tables/table1_baseline.rtf02_baseline_taylor.doTable 2tables/table2_crisis_type.rtf03_crisis_type.doTable 3tables/table3_regime_era.rtf04_regime_era.doFigure 1figures/irf_local_projections.png05_local_projections.doFigure 2figures/margins_crisis_phase.png03_crisis_type.doTable B1tables/tableB1_full.rtf02_baseline_taylor.doTable C1tables/tableC1_localproj.rtf05_local_projections.do

Variable Definitions
FAC Monetary Policy Stance (fac_score)
Coded on a five-point scale from −1 (strongly hawkish) to +1 (strongly dovish):
ValueDescription−1Unanimous recommendation for tightening or strong inflation concern−0.5Predominant hawkish sentiment with some dissent0Balanced or neutral assessment+0.5Predominant dovish sentiment with some dissent+1Unanimous recommendation for easing or strong growth concern
Crisis Period Indicators
Binary variables coded following the IMF Systemic Banking Crises Database (Laeven and Valencia, 2013):

pre_crisis: 6 quarters preceding crisis onset
crisis: Duration of financial stress
post_crisis: 6 quarters following crisis resolution

Monetary Policy Eras

pre_volcker: 1968Q1–1979Q3
volcker_glb: 1979Q4–1999Q4
glb_gfc: 2000Q1–2009Q4
post_gfc: 2010Q1–2025Q3


LLM Coding Validation
FAC records for 2000–2025 were coded using Llama 3.3 (Q4 quantisation) deployed locally. Validation against Weise (2008) for the overlap period (n = 130) yielded:

Linearly-weighted Cohen's κ: 0.88
Exact agreement: 83.8%
Adjacent agreement (±1 category): 100%
Directional reversals: 0

The coding prompts are provided in llm_coding_prompts.txt.

License
This replication package is licensed under CC BY 4.0. You are free to share and adapt the materials with appropriate attribution.

References
Havrilesky, T. (1990) The influence of the Federal Advisory Council on monetary policy. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 22(1): 37–50.
Laeven, L. and Valencia, F. (2013) Systemic Banking Crises Database. IMF Economic Review, 61(2): 225–270.
Weise, C.L. (2008) Private sector influences on monetary policy in the United States. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 40(2–3): 441–462.

Contact
Ciarán O'Flynn
Department of Politics and International Studies
University of Warwick
c.oflynn@warwick.ac.uk