cometadata/datacite-titles-descriptions-related-identifiers huggingface dataset:
DOI: 10.3886/e114248v1
title: Replication data for: Speculative Bubbles and Financial Crises

description: Are asset prices unduly volatile and often detached from their fundamentals? Does the bursting of financial bubbles depress the real economy? This paper addresses these issues by constructing a DSGE model with speculative bubbles. We characterize conditions under which storable goods, regardless of their intrinsic values, can carry bubbles, and agents are willing to invest in such bubbles despite their positive probability of bursting. The results show that systemic risk, commonly perceived changes in the bubble's probability of bursting, can generate boom-bust cycles with hump-shaped output dynamics and produce asset price movements many times more volatile than the economy's fundamentals. (JEL E13, E23, E32, E44, G01, G12).
DOI: 10.3886/e114249
title: Replication data for: Sticky Wages: Evidence from Quarterly Microeconomic Data

description: Using an original micro-dataset from France, we investigate nominal wage stickiness. Nominal wage changes are found to occur at a quarterly frequency of around 38 percent over our sample period, and to be to a large extent staggered across establishments, and very synchronized within establishments. We carry out an econometric analysis of wage changes based on a two-threshold sample selection model. Our results are that the timing of wage adjustments is time-dependent as opposed to state-dependent, there is evidence of predetermination in wage changes, and both backward and forward-looking behavior is relevant in wage setting. (JEL E24, E52, J31)
DOI: 10.3886/e114249v1
title: Replication data for: Sticky Wages: Evidence from Quarterly Microeconomic Data

description: Using an original micro-dataset from France, we investigate nominal wage stickiness. Nominal wage changes are found to occur at a quarterly frequency of around 38 percent over our sample period, and to be to a large extent staggered across establishments, and very synchronized within establishments. We carry out an econometric analysis of wage changes based on a two-threshold sample selection model. Our results are that the timing of wage adjustments is time-dependent as opposed to state-dependent, there is evidence of predetermination in wage changes, and both backward and forward-looking behavior is relevant in wage setting. (JEL E24, E52, J31)
DOI: 10.3886/e114250
title: Replication data for: Ambiguity Aversion: Implications for the Uncovered Interest Rate Parity Puzzle

description: High interest rate currencies tend to appreciate in the future relative to low interest rate currencies instead of depreciating as uncovered interest parity (UIP) predicts. I construct a model of exchange rate determination in which ambiguity-averse agents face a dynamic filtering problem featuring signals of uncertain precision. Solving a max-min problem, agents act upon a worst-case signal precision and systematically underestimate the hidden state that controls payoffs. Thus, on average, agents next periods perceive positive innovations, which generates an upward re-evaluation of the strategy's profitability and implies ex post departures from UIP. The model also produces predictable expectational errors, negative skewness, and time-series momentum for currency speculation payoffs. (JEL D81, F31, G15)
DOI: 10.3886/e114250v1
title: Replication data for: Ambiguity Aversion: Implications for the Uncovered Interest Rate Parity Puzzle

description: High interest rate currencies tend to appreciate in the future relative to low interest rate currencies instead of depreciating as uncovered interest parity (UIP) predicts. I construct a model of exchange rate determination in which ambiguity-averse agents face a dynamic filtering problem featuring signals of uncertain precision. Solving a max-min problem, agents act upon a worst-case signal precision and systematically underestimate the hidden state that controls payoffs. Thus, on average, agents next periods perceive positive innovations, which generates an upward re-evaluation of the strategy's profitability and implies ex post departures from UIP. The model also produces predictable expectational errors, negative skewness, and time-series momentum for currency speculation payoffs. (JEL D81, F31, G15)
DOI: 10.3886/e114251v1
title: Replication data for: Temperature Shocks and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Half Century

description: This paper uses historical fluctuations in temperature within countries to identify its effects on aggregate economic outcomes. We find three primary results. First, higher temperatures substantially reduce economic growth in poor countries. Second, higher temperatures may reduce growth rates, not just the level of output. Third, higher temperatures have wide-ranging effects, reducing agricultural output, industrial output, and political stability. These findings inform debates over climate's role in economic development and suggest the possibility of substantial negative impacts of higher temperatures on poor countries. (JEL E23, O13, Q54, Q56)
DOI: 10.3886/e114252v1
title: Replication data for: Social Security Reforms: Benefit Claiming, Labor Force Participation, and Long-Run Sustainability

description: This paper develops a general equilibrium life-cycle model with endogenous labor supply in both intensive and extensive margins, consumption, saving, and benefit claiming to measure the long-run effects of a proposed Social Security reform. Agents in the model face medical expenditure, wage, health, and survival shocks. Raising the normal retirement age by two years increases labor supply by 2.8 percent and the capital stock by 12.6 percent, showing that both margins of adjustment are critical. General equilibrium effects are important to account for the effects of reform on savings, although the effects on labor supply are less important. (JEL D91, E21, H55, I13, J22)
DOI: 10.3886/e114520
title: Replication data for: Discrimination in Ambient Air Pollution Monitoring?

description: In the United States, ambient air quality is regulated through National Ambient Air Quality standards (NAAQS). Enforcement of these standards is delegated to state and sub-state regulators who are also tasked with designing their own monitoring networks for ambient pollution. Past work has found evidence consistent with strategic behavior: local regulators strategically avoid pollution hotspots when siting monitors. This paper assesses whether income and race have historically played a role in monitor siting decisions.
DOI: 10.3886/e114521
title: Replication data for: Bringing Satellite-Based Air Quality Estimates Down to Earth

description: We use state-of-the-art, satellite-based PM 2.5 data products to assess the extent to which the Environmental Protection Agency's existing, monitor-based measurements over- or underestimate true exposure to PM 2.5 pollution. Treating satellite-based estimates as truth implies a substantial number of "policy errors"—overregulating areas that are in compliance with the air quality standards and under-regulating other areas that appear to be in violation. We investigate the health implications of these apparent errors. We also highlight the importance of accounting for prediction error in satellite-based estimates. Once prediction errors are accounted for, conclusions with regards to "policy errors" become substantially more uncertain.
DOI: 10.3886/e114521v1
title: Replication data for: Bringing Satellite-Based Air Quality Estimates Down to Earth

description: We use state-of-the-art, satellite-based PM 2.5 data products to assess the extent to which the Environmental Protection Agency's existing, monitor-based measurements over- or underestimate true exposure to PM 2.5 pollution. Treating satellite-based estimates as truth implies a substantial number of "policy errors"—overregulating areas that are in compliance with the air quality standards and under-regulating other areas that appear to be in violation. We investigate the health implications of these apparent errors. We also highlight the importance of accounting for prediction error in satellite-based estimates. Once prediction errors are accounted for, conclusions with regards to "policy errors" become substantially more uncertain.
DOI: 10.3886/e114522
title: Replication data for: Mastering Panel Metrics: Causal Impact of Democracy on Growth

description: We revisit the panel data analysis of Acemoglu et al. (forthcoming) on the relationship between democracy and economic growth using state-of-the-art econometric methods. We argue that panel data settings are high-dimensional, resulting in estimators to be biased to a degree that invalidates statistical inference. We remove these biases by using simple analytical and sample-splitting methods, and thereby restore valid statistical inference. We find that debiased fixed effects and Arellano-Bond estimators produce higher estimates of the long-run effect of democracy on growth, providing even stronger support for the key hypothesis of Acemoglu et al.
DOI: 10.3886/e114522v1
title: Replication data for: Mastering Panel Metrics: Causal Impact of Democracy on Growth

description: We revisit the panel data analysis of Acemoglu et al. (forthcoming) on the relationship between democracy and economic growth using state-of-the-art econometric methods. We argue that panel data settings are high-dimensional, resulting in estimators to be biased to a degree that invalidates statistical inference. We remove these biases by using simple analytical and sample-splitting methods, and thereby restore valid statistical inference. We find that debiased fixed effects and Arellano-Bond estimators produce higher estimates of the long-run effect of democracy on growth, providing even stronger support for the key hypothesis of Acemoglu et al.
DOI: 10.3886/e114523
title: Replication data for: Parental Aspirations for Children's Education: Is There a "Girl Effect"? Experimental Evidence from Rural Ethiopia

description: We report on an experiment with poor rural households in Ethiopia, which aimed to boost aspirations for a better future through exposure to documentaries featuring local male and female role models. We explore effects on parents' educational aspirations and investment in children's education. At baseline, educational aspirations are high but biased against girls. At a six-month follow-up, the intervention increased parents' aspirations for their children's education and increased enrollment, time spent in school, and schooling expenditures. There was no catching up of girls relative to boys. Results are consistent with broader local social norms that value education but disfavor women.
DOI: 10.3886/e114523v1
title: Replication data for: Parental Aspirations for Children's Education: Is There a "Girl Effect"? Experimental Evidence from Rural Ethiopia

description: We report on an experiment with poor rural households in Ethiopia, which aimed to boost aspirations for a better future through exposure to documentaries featuring local male and female role models. We explore effects on parents' educational aspirations and investment in children's education. At baseline, educational aspirations are high but biased against girls. At a six-month follow-up, the intervention increased parents' aspirations for their children's education and increased enrollment, time spent in school, and schooling expenditures. There was no catching up of girls relative to boys. Results are consistent with broader local social norms that value education but disfavor women.
DOI: 10.3886/e114524v1
title: Replication data for: Changing Family Attitudes to Promote Female Employment

description: India's female employment rate is one of the lowest in the world. One approach to expanding female employment is to make young women's family members more supportive of them working. We report on the effects of two interventions aimed at increasing family members' supportiveness in rural India. The first entails showing them video testimonials by working women and their family members. The second prompts a conversation between working women and their families about the benefits and challenges they face when a woman in the household works. We find no evidence that the interventions changed employment or attitudes.
DOI: 10.3886/e114710v1
title: Replication data for: Does the Election of a Female Leader Clear the Way for More Women in Politics?

description: Women remain underrepresented in politics and it remains unclear how this might change. In this paper, we investigate whether female council candidates receive more preferential votes when a female mayor has been recently elected into office. We hand collect data for 109,017 candidates in four open-list local council elections (2001-2016) in all 426 municipalities of a German state. Based on RDD estimations for close mixed-gender races, we show that female council candidates advance more from their initial list rank when the mayor is female. This effect spreads to neighboring municipalities and leads to a rising share of female council members.
DOI: 10.3886/e114711
title: Replication data for: Projections and Uncertainties about Climate Change in an Era of Minimal Climate Policies

description: Climate change remains one of the major international environmental challenges facing nations. Up to now, nations have adopted minimal policies to slow climate change. Moreover, there has been no major improvement in emissions trends as of the latest data. The current study uses the updated DICE model to develop new projections of trends and impacts of alternative climate policies. It also presents a new set of estimates of the uncertainties about future climate change and compares the results with those of other integrated assessment models. The study confirms past estimates of likely rapid climate change over the next century if major climate-change policies are not taken. It suggests that it is unlikely that nations can achieve the 2°C target of international agreements, even if ambitious policies are introduced in the near term. The required carbon price needed to achieve current targets has risen over time as policies have been delayed.
DOI: 10.3886/e114711v1
title: Replication data for: Projections and Uncertainties about Climate Change in an Era of Minimal Climate Policies

description: Climate change remains one of the major international environmental challenges facing nations. Up to now, nations have adopted minimal policies to slow climate change. Moreover, there has been no major improvement in emissions trends as of the latest data. The current study uses the updated DICE model to develop new projections of trends and impacts of alternative climate policies. It also presents a new set of estimates of the uncertainties about future climate change and compares the results with those of other integrated assessment models. The study confirms past estimates of likely rapid climate change over the next century if major climate-change policies are not taken. It suggests that it is unlikely that nations can achieve the 2°C target of international agreements, even if ambitious policies are introduced in the near term. The required carbon price needed to achieve current targets has risen over time as policies have been delayed.
DOI: 10.3886/e114712
title: Replication data for: Direct and Spillover Effects of Middle School Vaccination Requirements

description: We study the direct and spillover effects of state requirements that middle school youths obtain a tetanus, diphtheria, and pertussis (Tdap) booster prior to middle school entry. These mandates significantly increased Tdap vaccine take-up and reduced pertussis (whooping cough) incidence by about 32 percent. We also document cross-vaccine spillovers: the mandates significantly increased adolescent vaccination rates for meningococcal disease and human papillomavirus (HPV)—which is responsible for 98 percent of cervical cancers—by 8–34 percent, with particularly large effects for children from low SES households. We find important roles for both parents and providers in generating these spillovers.
DOI: 10.3886/e114712v1
title: Replication data for: Direct and Spillover Effects of Middle School Vaccination Requirements

description: We study the direct and spillover effects of state requirements that middle school youths obtain a tetanus, diphtheria, and pertussis (Tdap) booster prior to middle school entry. These mandates significantly increased Tdap vaccine take-up and reduced pertussis (whooping cough) incidence by about 32 percent. We also document cross-vaccine spillovers: the mandates significantly increased adolescent vaccination rates for meningococcal disease and human papillomavirus (HPV)—which is responsible for 98 percent of cervical cancers—by 8–34 percent, with particularly large effects for children from low SES households. We find important roles for both parents and providers in generating these spillovers.
DOI: 10.3886/e114713v1
title: Replication data for: Supply-Side Drug Policy in the Presence of Substitutes: Evidence from the Introduction of Abuse-Deterrent Opioids

description: Overdose deaths from prescription opioid pain relievers nearly quadrupled between 1999 and 2010. We study the consequences of one of the largest supply disruptions to date to abusable opioids—the introduction of an abuse-deterrent version of OxyContin in 2010. Supply-side interventions which limit access to opioids may have the unintended consequence of increasing use of substitute drugs, including heroin. Exploiting cross-state variation in OxyContin exposure, we find that states with the highest initial rates of OxyContin misuse experienced the largest increases in heroin deaths. Our results imply that the recent heroin epidemic is largely due to the reformulation of OxyContin.
DOI: 10.3886/e113760
title: Replication data for: Microfinance Games

description: Microfinance banks use group-based lending contracts to strengthen borrowers' incentives for diligence, but the contracts are vulnerable to free-riding and collusion. We systematically unpack microfinance mechanisms through ten experimental games played in an experimental economics laboratory in urban Peru. Risk-taking broadly conforms to theoretical predictions, with dynamic incentives strongly reducing risk-taking even without group-based mechanisms. Group lending increases risk-taking, especially for risk-averse borrowers, but this is moderated when borrowers form their own groups. Group contracts benefit borrowers by creating implicit insurance against investment losses, but the costs are borne by other borrowers, especially the most risk averse. (JEL D82, G21, G31, O16)
DOI: 10.3886/e113760v1
title: Replication data for: Microfinance Games

description: Microfinance banks use group-based lending contracts to strengthen borrowers' incentives for diligence, but the contracts are vulnerable to free-riding and collusion. We systematically unpack microfinance mechanisms through ten experimental games played in an experimental economics laboratory in urban Peru. Risk-taking broadly conforms to theoretical predictions, with dynamic incentives strongly reducing risk-taking even without group-based mechanisms. Group lending increases risk-taking, especially for risk-averse borrowers, but this is moderated when borrowers form their own groups. Group contracts benefit borrowers by creating implicit insurance against investment losses, but the costs are borne by other borrowers, especially the most risk averse. (JEL D82, G21, G31, O16)
DOI: 10.3886/e113761
title: Replication data for: Do Temporary-Help Jobs Improve Labor Market Outcomes for Low-Skilled Workers? Evidence from "Work First"

description: Temporary-help jobs offer rapid entry into paid employment, but they are typically brief and it is unknown whether they foster longer term employment. We utilize the unique structure of Detroit's welfare-to- work program to identify the effect of temporary-help jobs on labor market advancement. Exploiting the rotational assignment of welfare clients to numerous nonprofit contractors with differing job placement rates, we find that temporary-help job placements do not improve and may diminish subsequent earnings and employment outcomes among participants. In contrast, job placements with direct-hire employers substantially raise earnings and employment over a seven quarter follow-up period. (JEL J22, J23, J24, J31, J68)
DOI: 10.3886/e113761v1
title: Replication data for: Do Temporary-Help Jobs Improve Labor Market Outcomes for Low-Skilled Workers? Evidence from "Work First"

description: Temporary-help jobs offer rapid entry into paid employment, but they are typically brief and it is unknown whether they foster longer term employment. We utilize the unique structure of Detroit's welfare-to- work program to identify the effect of temporary-help jobs on labor market advancement. Exploiting the rotational assignment of welfare clients to numerous nonprofit contractors with differing job placement rates, we find that temporary-help job placements do not improve and may diminish subsequent earnings and employment outcomes among participants. In contrast, job placements with direct-hire employers substantially raise earnings and employment over a seven quarter follow-up period. (JEL J22, J23, J24, J31, J68)
DOI: 10.3886/e113762
title: Replication data for: The Flattening Firm and Product Market Competition: The Effect of Trade Liberalization on Corporate Hierarchies

description: This paper establishes a causal effect of product market competition on various characteristics of organizational design. Using a unique panel dataset on firm hierarchies of large US firms (1986-1999) and a quasi-natural experiment (trade liberalization), we find that competition leads firms to flatten their hierarchies: firms reduce the number of positions between the CEO and division managers, and firms increase the number of positions reporting directly to the CEO. The results illustrate how firms redesign their organizational structure through a set of complementary choices in response to changes in their environment. We discuss several possible interpretations of these changes. (JEL D23, F13, G34, M12, M51)
DOI: 10.3886/e113762v1
title: Replication data for: The Flattening Firm and Product Market Competition: The Effect of Trade Liberalization on Corporate Hierarchies

description: This paper establishes a causal effect of product market competition on various characteristics of organizational design. Using a unique panel dataset on firm hierarchies of large US firms (1986-1999) and a quasi-natural experiment (trade liberalization), we find that competition leads firms to flatten their hierarchies: firms reduce the number of positions between the CEO and division managers, and firms increase the number of positions reporting directly to the CEO. The results illustrate how firms redesign their organizational structure through a set of complementary choices in response to changes in their environment. We discuss several possible interpretations of these changes. (JEL D23, F13, G34, M12, M51)
DOI: 10.3886/e114082v1
title: Replication data for: Monetary Policy Surprises, Credit Costs, and Economic Activity

description: We provide evidence on the transmission of monetary policy shocks in a setting with both economic and financial variables. We first show that shocks identified using high frequency surprises around policy announcements as external instruments produce responses in output and inflation that are typical in monetary VAR analysis. We also find, however, that the resulting "modest" movements in short rates lead to "large" movements in credit costs, which are due mainly to the reaction of both term premia and credit spreads. Finally, we show that forward guidance is important to the overall strength of policy transmission. (JEL E31, E32, E43, E44, E52, G01)