cometadata/datacite-titles-descriptions-related-identifiers huggingface dataset:
DOI: 10.3886/e113723v1
title: Replication data for: Partners in Crime

description: Social interactions may explain the large variance in criminal activity across neighborhoods and time. We present direct evidence of social spillovers in crime using random variation in neighborhood residence along opposite sides of a newly drawn school boundary. We first show evidence for agglomeration effects—within small neighborhood areas, grouping more disadvantaged students together in the same school increases total crime. We then show that these youths are more likely to be arrested for committing crimes together—to be "partners in crime". Our results show that neighborhood and school segregation increase crime by fostering social interactions between at-risk youth.
DOI: 10.3886/e113724v1
title: Replication data for: Severe Air Pollution and Labor Productivity: Evidence from Industrial Towns in China

description: We examine day-to-day fluctuations in worker-level output at two manufacturing sites in China. Ambient fine-particle (PM2.5) pollution is severe but significantly variable, largely due to exogenous atmospheric ventilation. We obtain an insignificant immediate output response from concurrent (same-shift) variation in particle pollution. We then allow worker outcomes to respond to day-to-day variation in pollution with up to 30 days of delay. We uncover statistically significant adverse output effects from more prolonged exposure, but effects are not large. A substantial +10 μg/m3 PM2.5 variation sustained over 25 days reduces daily output by 1%.
DOI: 10.3886/e114041
title: Replication data for: The Ins and Outs of Cyclical Unemployment

description: A dominant trend in recent modeling of labor market fluctuations is to treat unemployment inflows as acyclical. This trend has been encouraged by recent influential papers that stress the role of longer unemployment spells, rather than more unemployment spells, in accounting for recessionary unemployment. After reviewing an empirical literature going back several decades, we apply a convenient log change decomposition to Current Population Survey data to characterize rising unemployment in each postwar recession. We conclude that a complete understanding of cyclical unemployment requires an explanation of countercyclical inflow rates, especially for job losers (layoffs), as well as procyclical outflow rates. (JEL E24, E32)
DOI: 10.3886/e114041v1
title: Replication data for: The Ins and Outs of Cyclical Unemployment

description: A dominant trend in recent modeling of labor market fluctuations is to treat unemployment inflows as acyclical. This trend has been encouraged by recent influential papers that stress the role of longer unemployment spells, rather than more unemployment spells, in accounting for recessionary unemployment. After reviewing an empirical literature going back several decades, we apply a convenient log change decomposition to Current Population Survey data to characterize rising unemployment in each postwar recession. We conclude that a complete understanding of cyclical unemployment requires an explanation of countercyclical inflow rates, especially for job losers (layoffs), as well as procyclical outflow rates. (JEL E24, E32)
DOI: 10.3886/e114042
title: Replication data for: Understanding the Forward Premium Puzzle: A Microstructure Approach

description: High interest rate currencies tend to appreciate relative to low interest rate currencies. We argue that adverse selection problems between participants in foreign exchange markets can account for this "forward premium puzzle." The key feature of our model is that the adverse selection problem facing market makers is worse when an agent wants to trade against a public information signal. So, when based on public information, the currency is expected to appreciate, there is more adverse selection associated with a sell order than with a buy order. (JEL E43, F31, G15)
DOI: 10.3886/e114042v1
title: Replication data for: Understanding the Forward Premium Puzzle: A Microstructure Approach

description: High interest rate currencies tend to appreciate relative to low interest rate currencies. We argue that adverse selection problems between participants in foreign exchange markets can account for this "forward premium puzzle." The key feature of our model is that the adverse selection problem facing market makers is worse when an agent wants to trade against a public information signal. So, when based on public information, the currency is expected to appreciate, there is more adverse selection associated with a sell order than with a buy order. (JEL E43, F31, G15)
DOI: 10.3886/e114043v1
title: Replication data for: A Century of Work and Leisure

description: We develop comprehensive measures of time spent in market work, home production, schooling, and leisure in the United States for the last 106 years. We find that hours of work for prime age individuals are essentially unchanged, with the rise in women's hours fully compensating for the decline in men's hours. Hours worked by those 14 to 24 years old have declined noticeably, but most of this decline was offset by a rise in hours spent in school. Overall, per capita leisure and average annual lifetime leisure increased by only four or five hours per week during the last 100 years. (JEL D13, J16, J22)
DOI: 10.3886/e114044
title: Replication data for: Optimal Monetary Policy Rules in an Estimated Sticky-Information Model

description: This paper uses a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with sticky information as a laboratory to study monetary policy. It characterizes the model's predictions for macro dynamics and optimal policy at prior parameters, and then uses data on five US macroeconomic series to update the parameters and provide an estimated model that can be used for policy analysis. The model answers a few policy questions. How does sticky information affect optimal monetary policy? What is the optimal interest rate rule? What is the optimal elastic price-level targeting rule? How does parameter uncertainty affect optimal policy? Are the conclusions for the Euro area different? (JEL E13, E31, E43, E52)
DOI: 10.3886/e114044v1
title: Replication data for: Optimal Monetary Policy Rules in an Estimated Sticky-Information Model

description: This paper uses a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with sticky information as a laboratory to study monetary policy. It characterizes the model's predictions for macro dynamics and optimal policy at prior parameters, and then uses data on five US macroeconomic series to update the parameters and provide an estimated model that can be used for policy analysis. The model answers a few policy questions. How does sticky information affect optimal monetary policy? What is the optimal interest rate rule? What is the optimal elastic price-level targeting rule? How does parameter uncertainty affect optimal policy? Are the conclusions for the Euro area different? (JEL E13, E31, E43, E52)
DOI: 10.3886/e114190
title: Replication data for: Bank Integration and Transmission of Financial Shocks: Evidence from Japan

description: This paper investigates whether banking integration plays an important role in transmitting financial shocks across geographical boundaries by using a dataset on the branch network of nationwide city banks and prefecture-level dataset on the formation and collapse of the real estate bubble in Japan. The results show that the credit and economic cycle of financially integrated prefectures exhibits higher sensitivity to fluctuation in land prices in cities relative to financially isolated ones. These results suggest nationwide banks can be a source of economic volatility when they pass on the impacts of financial shocks to host economies. (JEL E44, G21, R30)
DOI: 10.3886/e114190v1
title: Replication data for: Bank Integration and Transmission of Financial Shocks: Evidence from Japan

description: This paper investigates whether banking integration plays an important role in transmitting financial shocks across geographical boundaries by using a dataset on the branch network of nationwide city banks and prefecture-level dataset on the formation and collapse of the real estate bubble in Japan. The results show that the credit and economic cycle of financially integrated prefectures exhibits higher sensitivity to fluctuation in land prices in cities relative to financially isolated ones. These results suggest nationwide banks can be a source of economic volatility when they pass on the impacts of financial shocks to host economies. (JEL E44, G21, R30)
DOI: 10.3886/e114191
title: Replication data for: Professional Forecasters' View of Permanent and Transitory Shocks to GDP

description: This paper examines how the professional forecasters comprising the Blue Chip Economic Consensus view shocks to GDP. I use an unobserved components model of the forecast revisions to identify forecasters' perceptions of permanent and transitory shocks to GDP. The model indicates forecasters: attribute about two-thirds of the variance in current-period revisions to permanent shocks; view the relative importance of permanent shocks similar to the estimates of some simple univariate econometric models; see high-frequency indicators of economic activity as being informative about both permanent and transitory shocks; and react to incoming data differently during periods of economic weakness. (JEL C51, C53, E23, E27, E32, E37)
DOI: 10.3886/e114191v1
title: Replication data for: Professional Forecasters' View of Permanent and Transitory Shocks to GDP

description: This paper examines how the professional forecasters comprising the Blue Chip Economic Consensus view shocks to GDP. I use an unobserved components model of the forecast revisions to identify forecasters' perceptions of permanent and transitory shocks to GDP. The model indicates forecasters: attribute about two-thirds of the variance in current-period revisions to permanent shocks; view the relative importance of permanent shocks similar to the estimates of some simple univariate econometric models; see high-frequency indicators of economic activity as being informative about both permanent and transitory shocks; and react to incoming data differently during periods of economic weakness. (JEL C51, C53, E23, E27, E32, E37)
DOI: 10.3886/e114192
title: Replication data for: Industry Evidence on the Effects of Government Spending

description: This paper investigates the effects of government purchases at the industry level in order to shed light on the transmission mechanism for government spending on the aggregate economy. We create a new panel dataset that matches output and labor variables to industry-specific shifts in government demand. An increase in government demand raises output and hours, lowers real product wages and labor productivity, and has no effect on the markup. The estimates also imply approximately constant returns to scale. The findings are more consistent with the effects of government spending in the neoclassical model than the textbook New Keynesian model. (JEL E12, E23, E62, H50)
DOI: 10.3886/e114192v1
title: Replication data for: Industry Evidence on the Effects of Government Spending

description: This paper investigates the effects of government purchases at the industry level in order to shed light on the transmission mechanism for government spending on the aggregate economy. We create a new panel dataset that matches output and labor variables to industry-specific shifts in government demand. An increase in government demand raises output and hours, lowers real product wages and labor productivity, and has no effect on the markup. The estimates also imply approximately constant returns to scale. The findings are more consistent with the effects of government spending in the neoclassical model than the textbook New Keynesian model. (JEL E12, E23, E62, H50)
DOI: 10.3886/e114193v1
title: Replication data for: Sticky Prices versus Monetary Frictions: An Estimation of Policy Trade-Offs

description: We develop a two-sector monetary model with a centralized and decentralized market. Activities in the centralized market resemble those in a standard New Keynesian economy with price rigidities. In the decentralized market agents engage in bilateral exchanges for which money is essential. This paper is the first to formally estimate such a model, evaluate its fit based on postwar US data, and assess its money demand properties. Steady-state welfare calculations reveal that the distortions created by the monetary friction may be of similar magnitude as the distortions created by the New Keynesian friction. (JEL C54, E12, E31, E41, E52)
DOI: 10.3886/e114674
title: Replication data for: Peacekeeping Force: Effects of Providing Tactical Equipment to Local Law Enforcement

description: We provide the first local level empirical analysis of the causal effects of providing military equipment to local police. Employing a novel combination of publicly available county-year panel data matched to hand-collected data on citizen complaints, we investigate the effects of acquiring tactical weapons, optics, and vehicles on citizen complaints, assaults on police officers, and offender deaths. For causal identification, we exploit exogenous variation in equipment availability and cost-shifting institutional aspects of the 1033 Program. Our results indicate that these items have generally positive effects: reduced citizen complaints, reduced assaults on officers, increased drug crime arrests, and no increases in offender deaths.
DOI: 10.3886/e114675
title: Replication data for: Mafia in the Ballot Box

description: We study the impact of organized crime on electoral results, analyzing in detail the national parliamentary elections in Sicily for the period 1946-1992. We document the significant support given by the Sicilian mafia to the Christian Democratic Party when the electoral competition by the Communist Party strengthened. We also provide suggestive evidence that, in exchange for its electoral support, the mafia obtained economic advantages in the construction sector.
DOI: 10.3886/e114675v1
title: Replication data for: Mafia in the Ballot Box

description: We study the impact of organized crime on electoral results, analyzing in detail the national parliamentary elections in Sicily for the period 1946-1992. We document the significant support given by the Sicilian mafia to the Christian Democratic Party when the electoral competition by the Communist Party strengthened. We also provide suggestive evidence that, in exchange for its electoral support, the mafia obtained economic advantages in the construction sector.
DOI: 10.3886/e114676
title: Replication data for: Causal Spousal Health Spillover Effects and Implications for Program Evaluation

description: Current methods of cost effectiveness analysis implicitly assume zero spillovers among social ties. This can underestimate the benefits of health interventions and misallocate resources toward interventions with lower comprehensive effects. We discuss the implications of social spillovers for program evaluation and document the first evidence of causal spillovers of health behaviors between spouses by leveraging experimental data from the Lung Health Study (smoking) and COMBINE Study (drinking). We find large decreases in spousal substance use from treatments with a therapy component, which reduces the incremental cost effectiveness ratios of some treatments by 12 to 18 percent.
DOI: 10.3886/e114676v1
title: Replication data for: Causal Spousal Health Spillover Effects and Implications for Program Evaluation

description: Current methods of cost effectiveness analysis implicitly assume zero spillovers among social ties. This can underestimate the benefits of health interventions and misallocate resources toward interventions with lower comprehensive effects. We discuss the implications of social spillovers for program evaluation and document the first evidence of causal spillovers of health behaviors between spouses by leveraging experimental data from the Lung Health Study (smoking) and COMBINE Study (drinking). We find large decreases in spousal substance use from treatments with a therapy component, which reduces the incremental cost effectiveness ratios of some treatments by 12 to 18 percent.
DOI: 10.3886/e114677
title: Replication data for: Trade Shocks and the Provision of Local Public Goods

description: We analyze the impact of trade-induced income shocks on the size of local government and the provision of public services. Areas in the United States with declining labor demand and incomes due to increasing import competition from China experience relative declines in housing prices and business activity. Since local governments are disproportionately funded through property and sales taxation, declining property values and a decrease in economic activity translate into less revenue, which constrains the ability of local governments to provide public services. State and federal governments have limited ability to smooth local shocks, and the impact on the provision of public services is compounded when local income shocks are highly correlated with shocks in the rest of the state. The outcome is a relative decline not only in incomes but also in the quality of public services and amenities in trade exposed localities.
DOI: 10.3886/e114677v1
title: Replication data for: Trade Shocks and the Provision of Local Public Goods

description: We analyze the impact of trade-induced income shocks on the size of local government and the provision of public services. Areas in the United States with declining labor demand and incomes due to increasing import competition from China experience relative declines in housing prices and business activity. Since local governments are disproportionately funded through property and sales taxation, declining property values and a decrease in economic activity translate into less revenue, which constrains the ability of local governments to provide public services. State and federal governments have limited ability to smooth local shocks, and the impact on the provision of public services is compounded when local income shocks are highly correlated with shocks in the rest of the state. The outcome is a relative decline not only in incomes but also in the quality of public services and amenities in trade exposed localities.
DOI: 10.3886/e114678
title: Replication data for: When Discounts Raise Costs: The Effect of Copay Coupons on Generic Utilization

description: Branded pharmaceutical manufacturers frequently offer "copay coupons" that insulate consumers from cost-sharing, thereby undermining insurers' ability to influence drug utilization. We study the impact of copay coupons on branded drugs first facing generic entry between 2007 and 2010. To overcome endogeneity concerns, we exploit cross-state and cross-consumer variation in coupon legality. We find that coupons increase branded sales by 60+ percent, entirely by reducing the sales of bioequivalent generics. During the five years following generic entry, we estimate that coupons increase total spending by $30 to $120 million per drug, or $700 million to $2.7 billion for our sample alone.
DOI: 10.3886/e114678v1
title: Replication data for: When Discounts Raise Costs: The Effect of Copay Coupons on Generic Utilization

description: Branded pharmaceutical manufacturers frequently offer "copay coupons" that insulate consumers from cost-sharing, thereby undermining insurers' ability to influence drug utilization. We study the impact of copay coupons on branded drugs first facing generic entry between 2007 and 2010. To overcome endogeneity concerns, we exploit cross-state and cross-consumer variation in coupon legality. We find that coupons increase branded sales by 60+ percent, entirely by reducing the sales of bioequivalent generics. During the five years following generic entry, we estimate that coupons increase total spending by $30 to $120 million per drug, or $700 million to $2.7 billion for our sample alone.
DOI: 10.3886/e113724
title: Replication data for: Severe Air Pollution and Labor Productivity: Evidence from Industrial Towns in China

description: We examine day-to-day fluctuations in worker-level output at two manufacturing sites in China. Ambient fine-particle (PM2.5) pollution is severe but significantly variable, largely due to exogenous atmospheric ventilation. We obtain an insignificant immediate output response from concurrent (same-shift) variation in particle pollution. We then allow worker outcomes to respond to day-to-day variation in pollution with up to 30 days of delay. We uncover statistically significant adverse output effects from more prolonged exposure, but effects are not large. A substantial +10 μg/m3 PM2.5 variation sustained over 25 days reduces daily output by 1%.
DOI: 10.3886/e113725
title: Replication data for: Soft Commitments, Reminders, and Academic Performance

description: We provide first evidence that a soft commitment device enhances progress in education and, more generally, improves the completion of complex tasks—such as passing exams. In our field experiment, students can sign a nonbinding agreement and commit to staying on track for graduation. We find that those who were offered the soft commitment device are more likely to sign up for, take part in, and pass exams. A pure reminder treatment does not change behavior, which suggests that the effects are not driven by increased salience. We also show that procrastinators benefit most from the commitment device.
DOI: 10.3886/e113725v1
title: Replication data for: Soft Commitments, Reminders, and Academic Performance

description: We provide first evidence that a soft commitment device enhances progress in education and, more generally, improves the completion of complex tasks—such as passing exams. In our field experiment, students can sign a nonbinding agreement and commit to staying on track for graduation. We find that those who were offered the soft commitment device are more likely to sign up for, take part in, and pass exams. A pure reminder treatment does not change behavior, which suggests that the effects are not driven by increased salience. We also show that procrastinators benefit most from the commitment device.
DOI: 10.3886/e113726v1
title: Replication data for: Health Care Spending and Utilization in Public and Private Medicare

description: We compare health care spending in public and private Medicare using newly available claims data from Medicare Advantage (MA) insurers. MA insurer revenues are 30 percent higher than their health care spending. Adjusting for enrollee mix, health care spending per enrollee in MA is 9 to 30 percent lower than in Traditional Medicare (TM), depending on the way we define "comparable" enrollees. Spending differences primarily reflect differences in health care utilization, with similar reductions for "high-value" and "low-value" care, rather than health care prices. We present evidence consistent with MA plans encouraging substitution to less expensive care and engaging in utilization management.
DOI: 10.3886/e114045
title: Replication data for: How Is Foreign Aid Spent? Evidence from a Natural Experiment

description: We use oil price fluctuations to test the impact of transfers from wealthy OPEC nations to their poorer Muslim allies. The instrument identifies plausibly exogenous variation in foreign aid. We investigate how aid is spent by tracking its short-run effect on aggregate demand, national accounts, and balance of payments. Aid affects most components of GDP though it has no statistically identifiable impact on prices or economic growth. Much aid is consumed, primarily in the form of imported noncapital goods. Aid substitutes for domestic savings, has no effect on the financial account, and leads to unaccounted capital flight. (JEL F35, O19)