DOI: 10.5061/dryad.d4m77
title: Data from: Ecological mismatches are moderated by local conditions in two populations of a long-distance migratory bird

description: Ecological mismatches between reproductive events and seasonal resource
 peaks are frequently proposed to be a key driver of population dynamics
 resulting from global climate change. Many local populations are
 experiencing reduced reproductive success as a consequence of mismatches,
 but few mismatches have led to species-level population declines. To
 better understand this apparent paradox, we investigated the breeding
 phenology and chick survival of two disjunct populations of Hudsonian
 godwits Limosa haemastica breeding at Churchill, Manitoba and Beluga
 River, Alaska. Only one population experienced a mismatch: godwits bred
 nearly one week after the onset of the invertebrate peak at Churchill
 because of asynchronous climatic change occurring throughout their annual
 cycle. However, chicks were not uniformly affected by the mismatch —
 growth rates and survival of young chicks were not correlated with
 invertebrate abundance, but older chicks tended to suffer lower survival
 rates on days of low invertebrate abundance. Ecological mismatches thus
 resulted in a complex array of consequences, but nonetheless contributed
 to reductions in chick survival. In contrast, godwits at Beluga River
 hatched their chicks just before the invertebrate peak, such that the
 period of highest energetic need coincided with the period of highest
 invertebrate abundance. As a result, growth rates and survival of godwit
 chicks were unaffected by invertebrate abundance. Godwits at Beluga River
 were able to properly time their reproduction because of predictable rates
 of climatic change and strong selection imposed by high predation on
 late-hatched chicks. Taken together, our results suggest that
 population-specific, local-scale selection pressures play a critical role
 in determining the degree and severity of ecological mismatches. The
 potential for global climate change to induce species-level population
 declines may therefore be mediated by the spatial variation in the
 selection pressures acting across a species’ range.
description: Nest Data Churchill and
 Beluga 2009-2012This file can be used in
 Program Mark to determine the nest survival rates of Hudsonian Godwits,
 Limosa haemastica, breeding in Beluga River, Alaska and Churchill,
 Manitoba from 2009-2011. The file includes the nest ID number, the first
 date on which each nest was found, the date on which it was last known to
 be alive, and the date on which its fate was complete (e.g., alive or
 dead). The final column denotes the nest's fate (0 = hatched, 1 =
 failed).Chick Data Churchill and
 Beluga 2009-2012This file can be used in
 Program Mark to determine the survival rates of Hudsonian Godwit, Limosa
 haemastica, chicks hatched in Beluga River, Alaska and Churchill, Manitoba
 from 2009-2011. The first column is the site at which a chick was hatched
 (CH = Churchill, BR = Beluga River); the second the year in which it was
 hatched; the third the nest from which it hatched, which corresponds to
 the nests in the Nest Date file; the fourth the chick's unique flag
 code; and then the date on which the chick was first captured, the last
 date it was known to be alive, and the date its fate was confirmed (e.g.,
 fledged or dead); the eighth is the chick's fate (0 = fledge, 1 =
 dead); and the last column whether or not the chick hatched from a renest
 (0 = first nest, 1 = renest).Churchill Daily Insect
 Data 2009-2011These are the daily
 measurements of invertebrate biomass (mg) along our two pitfall trap
 transects in Churchill, Manitoba 2009-2011. Each transect was comprised of
 5 pitfall traps.Beluga River Daily
 Insects 2009-2012These are the daily
 measurements of invertebrate biomass (mg) along our two pitfall trap
 transects in Beluga River, Alaska 2009-2011. Each transect was comprised
 of 5 pitfall traps.Churchill and Beluga
 Chick Growth Data 2009-2011This file contains the
 data which can be used to calculate the growth rates of Hudsonian godwit,
 Limosa haemastica, chicks hatched at Beluga River, Alaska and Churchill,
 Manitoba from 2009-2011. The first column denotes the site at which the
 chick was hatched (BR = Beluga River, CH = Churchill); the second column
 the year in which they were hatched; the third column the date on which
 they were hatched; the fourth the date of the capture; the fifth their
 individually unique flag code, which can be linked to the chick data file;
 the sixth their mass (g) at the time of capture; the seventh their USGS or
 CWS band number; and the last column whether or not they were hatched from
 a renest (0 = first nest, 1 = renest).