DOI: 10.5285/df7d665d7b7c4cadbd08558ea2e103c8
title: Technical Summary of the Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report - Input data for Box TS4, Figure 1 (v20220817)

description: Input Data for Box TS4 from Technical Summary of the Working Group I (WGI) Contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). Box TS4, Figure 1 shows global mean sea level change on different time scales and under different scenarios. --------------------------------------------------- How to cite this dataset --------------------------------------------------- When citing this dataset, please include both the data citation below (under 'Citable as') and the following citation for the report component from which the figure originates: Arias, P.A., N. Bellouin, E. Coppola, R.G. Jones, G. Krinner, J. Marotzke, V. Naik, M.D. Palmer, G.-K. Plattner, J. Rogelj, M. Rojas, J. Sillmann, T. Storelvmo, P.W. Thorne, B. Trewin, K. Achuta Rao, B. Adhikary, R.P. Allan, K. Armour, G. Bala, R. Barimalala, S. Berger, J.G. Canadell, C. Cassou, A. Cherchi, W. Collins, W.D. Collins, S.L. Connors, S. Corti, F. Cruz, F.J. Dentener, C. Dereczynski, A. Di Luca, A. Diongue Niang, F.J. Doblas-Reyes, A. Dosio, H. Douville, F. Engelbrecht, V. Eyring, E. Fischer, P. Forster, B. Fox-Kemper, J.S. Fuglestvedt, J.C. Fyfe, N.P. Gillett, L. Goldfarb, I. Gorodetskaya, J.M. Gutierrez, R. Hamdi, E. Hawkins, H.T. Hewitt, P. Hope, A.S. Islam, C. Jones, D.S. Kaufman, R.E. Kopp, Y. Kosaka, J. Kossin, S. Krakovska, J.-Y. Lee, J. Li, T. Mauritsen, T.K. Maycock, M. Meinshausen, S.-K. Min, P.M.S. Monteiro, T. Ngo-Duc, F. Otto, I. Pinto, A. Pirani, K. Raghavan, R. Ranasinghe, A.C. Ruane, L. Ruiz, J.-B. Sallée, B.H. Samset, S. Sathyendranath, S.I. Seneviratne, A.A. Sörensson, S. Szopa, I. Takayabu, A.-M. Tréguier, B. van den Hurk, R. Vautard, K. von Schuckmann, S. Zaehle, X. Zhang, and K. Zickfeld, 2021: Technical Summary. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 33−144, doi:10.1017/9781009157896.002. When citing the SSP-based sea-level projections, please also include the following citation: Garner, G. G., T. Hermans, R. E. Kopp, A. B. A. Slangen, T. L. Edwards, A. Levermann, S. Nowikci, M. D. Palmer, C. Smith, B. Fox-Kemper, H. T. Hewitt, C. Xiao, G. Aðalgeirsdóttir, S. S. Drijfhout, T. L. Edwards, N. R. Golledge, M. Hemer, G. Krinner, A. Mix, D. Notz, S. Nowicki, I. S. Nurhati, L. Ruiz, J-B. Sallée, Y. Yu, L. Hua, T. Palmer, B. Pearson, 2021. IPCC AR6 Global Mean Sea-Level Rise Projections. Version 20210809. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5914710. --------------------------------------------------- Figure subpanels --------------------------------------------------- The figure has three panels. Panel a shows global mean sea level (GMSL) change from 1900 to 2150, observed (1900–2018) and projected under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (2000–2150). Panel b shows GMSL change on 100-, 2,000-, and 10,000-year time scales as a function of global surface temperature. Panel c shows timing of exceedance of different GMSL thresholds under different SSPs. Input data is only available for panel a and c. --------------------------------------------------- List of data provided --------------------------------------------------- This dataset contains: Global mean sea level change time-series from 1901-2150 for: - Observed global mean sea level change (1901-2018). - Projected global mean sea level change (2005-2150). --------------------------------------------------- Data provided in relation to figure --------------------------------------------------- Data provided in relation to Box TS4, Figure 1: SSP-based global mean sea level projections are archived as Garner, G. G., Hermans, T., Kopp, R. E., Slangen, A. B. A., Edwards, T. L., Levermann, A., Nowicki, S., Palmer, M. D., Smith, C., Fox-Kemper, B., Hewitt, H. T., Xiao, C., Aðalgeirsdóttir, G., Drijfhout, S. S., Edwards, T. L., Golledge, N. R., Hemer, M., Krinner, G., Mix, A., … Pearson, B. (2021). IPCC AR6 Sea Level Projections (Version 20210809) [Data set]. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5914710 Panel a: Consensus observational GMSL curve: gmsl_altimeter+TG_ensemble_28012021.mat This file is not provided but a link to the Chapter 9 GitHub repository which contains this file is provided. SSP-based GMSL projections through 2100, medium confidence: - pbox1e_total_ssp119_globalsl_figuredata.nc - pbox1e_total_ssp126_globalsl_figuredata.nc - pbox1e_total_ssp245_globalsl_figuredata.nc - pbox1e_total_ssp370_globalsl_figuredata.nc - pbox1e_total_ssp585_globalsl_figuredata.nc SSP-based GMSL projections after 2100, medium confidence: - pbox1f_total_ssp119_globalsl_figuredata.nc - pbox1f_total_ssp126_globalsl_figuredata.nc - pbox1f_total_ssp245_globalsl_figuredata.nc - pbox1f_total_ssp370_globalsl_figuredata.nc - pbox1f_total_ssp585_globalsl_figuredata.nc SSP-based GMSL projections through 2100, low confidence: - pbox2e_total_ssp126_globalsl_figuredata.nc - pbox2e_total_ssp585_globalsl_figuredata.nc SSP-based GMSL projections after 2100, low confidence: - pbox2f_total_ssp126_globalsl_figuredata.nc - pbox2f_total_ssp245_globalsl_figuredata.nc - pbox2f_total_ssp585_globalsl_figuredata.nc Panel c: Threshold exceedance timing under different SSPs, medium confidence, with parametric emulator for Antarctic ice sheet: - wf_1f_ssp119_milestone_figuredata.nc - wf_1f_ssp126_milestone_figuredata.nc - wf_1f_ssp245_milestone_figuredata.nc - wf_1f_ssp370_milestone_figuredata.nc - wf_1f_ssp585_milestone_figuredata.nc Threshold exceedance timing under different SSPs, medium confidence, with LARMIP-2 emulator for Antarctic ice sheet: - wf_2f_ssp119_milestone_figuredata.nc - wf_2f_ssp126_milestone_figuredata.nc - wf_2f_ssp245_milestone_figuredata.nc - wf_2f_ssp370_milestone_figuredata.nc - wf_2f_ssp585_milestone_figuredata.nc Threshold exceedance timing under different SSPs, low confidence, with DeConto et al. 2021-based Antarctic ice sheet projections incorporating Marine Ice Cliff Instability: - wf_3f_ssp126_milestone_figuredata.nc - wf_3f_ssp585_milestone_figuredata.nc Threshold exceedance timing under different SSPs, low confidence, with Bamber et al. 2019-based structured expert judgement ice sheet projections: - wf_4_ssp126_milestone_figuredata.nc - wf_4_ssp585_milestone_figuredata.nc See sections 9.6.3.2 and 9.6.3.3 for detailed information on the SSP-based global mean sea level projections and their production. --------------------------------------------------- Notes on reproducing the figure from the provided data --------------------------------------------------- Panel a data were plotted using standard matplotlib software and a Linux shell script, - code is available via the link in the documentation. The code requires the input data provided here and the additional gmsl_altimeter+TG_ensemble_28012021.mat file from Figure 9.27. The link to this file from the Chapter 9 GitHub is provided. Panel c data were plotted using standard open-source R software - code is available via the link in the documentation. --------------------------------------------------- Sources of additional information --------------------------------------------------- The following weblinks are provided in the Related Documents section of this catalogue record: - Link to the figure on the IPCC AR6 website - Link to the report component containing the figure (Technical Summary) - Link to the code for the figure, archived on Zenodo. - Link to the sea-level projections associated with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report, archived on Zenodo. - Link to figure data in matlab format on github