DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.4043286
title: Reference Climate (1971-2005) and RCP 8.5 scenario (2010-2100) of Destra sele for SWAP simulation

description: The database refers to the weather files for the simulation run of SWAP model (Kroes et al., 2017) in the Destra Sele area (Regione Campania, southern Italy) under Reference Climate (RC, 1971-2005) and future climate scenario (RCP 8.5, 2010-2100). The future climate scenarios were obtained by using the high resolution regional climate model (RCM) COSMO-CLM (Rockel et al., 2008), with a configuration employing a spatial resolution of 0.0715°(about 8 km), which was optimised over the Italian area. The validations performed showed that these model data agree closely with different regional high-resolution observational datasets, in terms of both average temperature and precipitation in Bucchignani et al. (2015) and in terms of extreme events in Zollo et al. (2015). In particular, the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario was applied, based on the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) modelling approach to generate greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations (Meinshausen et al., 2011). Initial and boundary conditions for running RCM simulations with COSMO-CLM were provided by the general circulation model CMCC-CM (Scoccimarro et al., 2011), whose atmospheric component (ECHAM5) has a horizontal resolution of about 85 km. The simulations covered the period from 1971 to 2100; more specifically, the CMIP5 historical experiment (based on historical greenhouse gas concentrations) was used for the period 1976–2005 (Reference Climate scenario - RC), while for the period 2006–2100, a simulation was performed using the IPCC scenario mentioned. The analysis of results was made on RC (1971–2005) and RCP 8.5 divided into three different time periods (2010–2040, 2040–2070 and 2070–2100). Daily reference evapotranspiration (ET<sub>0</sub>) was evaluated according to Hargreaves and Samani, (1985) equation (HS). The reliability of this equation in the study area was perrformed by Fagnano et al., (2001) comparing the HS equation with the Penman–Monteith (PM) equation (Allen et al., 1998). Under the RCP 8.5 scenario the temperature in Destra Sele is expected to increase approximately two degrees celsius respectively every 30 years to 2100 starting from the RC. The differences in temperature between RC and the period 2070–2100 showed an average increase of minimum and maximum temperatures of about 6.2°C (for both min and max). The projected increase of temperatures produces an increase of the expected ET<sub>0</sub>. In particular, during the maize growing season, an average increase of ET<sub>0</sub> of about 18% is expected until 2100. The climate data were provided by the “Regional Models and Geo-Hydrogeological Impacts Division” of the Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Capua (CE) – Italy, through the support of Dr. Paola Mercogliano and Dr. Edoardo Bucchignani. <strong>References</strong> Allen, R. G., Pereira, L. S., Raes, D., Smith, M. and W, a B.: Crop evapotranspiration - Guidelines for computing crop water requirements - FAO Irrigation and drainage paper 56, Irrig. Drain., 1–15, doi:10.1016/j.eja.2010.12.001, 1998. Bucchignani, E., Montesarchio, M., Zollo, A. L. and Mercogliano, P.: High-resolution climate simulations with COSMO-CLM over Italy: performance evaluation and climate projections for the 21st century, Int. J. Climatol., 36(2), 735–756, 2015. Fagnano, M., Acutis, M. and Postiglione, L.: Valutazione di un metodo semplificato per il calcolo dell'ET<sub>0</sub> in Campania, Model. di Agric. sostenibile per la pianura meridionale Gest. delle risorse idriche nelle pianure irrigue. Gutenberg, Salerno, ISBN, 88–900475, 2001. Hargreaves, G. H. and Samani, Z. A.: Reference crop evapotranspiration from temperature, Appl. Eng. Agric., 1(2), 96–99, 1985. Kroes, J. G., Van Dam, J. C., Bartholomeus, R. P., Groenendijk, P., Heinen, M., Hendriks, R. F. A., Mulder, H. M., Supit, I. and Van Walsum, P. E. V: Theory description and user manual SWAP version 4, http://www.swap.alterra.nl, Wageningen [online] Available from: www.wur.eu/environmental-research (Accessed 24 July 2019), 2017. Meinshausen, M., Smith, S. J., Calvin, K., Daniel, J. S., Kainuma, M. L. T., Lamarque, J. F., Matsumoto, K., Montzka, S. A., Raper, S. C. B., Riahi, K. and others: The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300, Clim. Change, 109(1–2), 213, 2011. Rockel, B., Will, A. and Hense, A.: The regional climate model COSMO-CLM (CCLM), Meteorol. Zeitschrift, 17(4), 347–348, 2008. Scoccimarro, E., Gualdi, S., Bellucci, A., Sanna, A., Fogli, P. G., Manzini, E., Vichi, M., Oddo, P. and Navarra, A.: Effects of Tropical Cyclones on Ocean Heat Transport in a High-Resolution Coupled General Circulation Model, J. Clim., 24(16), 4368–4384, doi:Doi 10.1175/2011jcli4104.1, 2011. Zollo, A. L., Turco, M. and Mercogliano, P.: Assessment of hybrid downscaling techniques for precipitation over the Po river basin, in Engineering Geology for Society and Territory-Volume 1, pp. 193–197, Springer., 2015.