cometadata/datacite-titles-descriptions-related-identifiers huggingface dataset:
DOI: 10.3886/e113960v1
title: Replication data for: Household Surveys in Crisis

description: Household surveys, one of the main innovations in social science research of the last century, are threatened by declining accuracy due to reduced cooperation of respondents. While many indicators of survey quality have steadily declined in recent decades, the literature has largely emphasized rising nonresponse rates rather than other potentially more important dimensions to the problem. We divide the problem into rising rates of nonresponse, imputation, and measurement error, documenting the rise in each of these threats to survey quality over the past three decades. A fundamental problem in assessing biases due to these problems in surveys is the lack of a benchmark or measure of truth, leading us to focus on the accuracy of the reporting of government transfers. We provide evidence from aggregate measures of transfer reporting as well as linked microdata. We discuss the relative importance of misreporting of program receipt and conditional amounts of benefits received, as well as some of the conjectured reasons for declining cooperation and for survey errors. We end by discussing ways to reduce the impact of the problem including the increased use of administrative data and the possibilities for combining administrative and survey data.
DOI: 10.3886/e114107
title: Replication data for: Transfer Payments and the Macroeconomy: The Effects of Social Security Benefit Increases, 1952-1991

description: This paper uses Social Security benefit increases from 1952 to 1991 to investigate the macroeconomic effects of changes in transfers. It finds a large, immediate, and significant positive response of consumption to permanent benefit increases. The response declines after about five months, and does not appear to spread to industrial production or employment. The effects of transfers are faster, but much less persistent and much smaller overall, than those of tax changes. Finally, monetary policy responds strongly to benefit increases but not to tax changes. This may account for the failure of the effects of transfers to persist or spread.
DOI: 10.3886/e114107v1
title: Replication data for: Transfer Payments and the Macroeconomy: The Effects of Social Security Benefit Increases, 1952-1991

description: This paper uses Social Security benefit increases from 1952 to 1991 to investigate the macroeconomic effects of changes in transfers. It finds a large, immediate, and significant positive response of consumption to permanent benefit increases. The response declines after about five months, and does not appear to spread to industrial production or employment. The effects of transfers are faster, but much less persistent and much smaller overall, than those of tax changes. Finally, monetary policy responds strongly to benefit increases but not to tax changes. This may account for the failure of the effects of transfers to persist or spread.
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.3483822
title: Supplementary Data 2

description: Supplementary Data 2
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.3483823
title: Supplementary Data 2

description: Supplementary Data 2
DOI: 10.3886/e113426
title: Replication data for: Can Alcohol Prohibition Reduce Violence against Women?

description: Violence against women is a critical problem across the world. In this paper, we exploit state and temporal variation in alcohol control in India to examine the impact of prohibition on alcohol consumption and violent crimes against women. We first use detailed household survey data to show that prohibition policies are associated with substantially lower rates of drinking among men and domestic violence. Next, we provide evidence that alcohol prohibition reduces aggregate violence against women in officially reported crime data. The results suggest that policies that restrict access to alcohol may help reduce gender violence.
DOI: 10.3886/e113427
title: Replication data for: (Indirect) Input Linkages

description: Relative to backward firms, technologically-advanced firms source inputs from other advanced firms. These sourcing patterns lead to a magnification effect of technology adoption. A firm that adopts higher-technology increases the relative supply and demand for higher-technology inputs. As a result, it positively influences the technology of other firms in its production chain. Using data from a Colombian manufacturing survey, we provide evidence that advanced firms disproportionately value advanced inputs. More novel, we provide suggestive evidence that technological advancements in some firms increase the technology of other firms indirectly linked to them through a common input market.
DOI: 10.3886/e113427v1
title: Replication data for: (Indirect) Input Linkages

description: Relative to backward firms, technologically-advanced firms source inputs from other advanced firms. These sourcing patterns lead to a magnification effect of technology adoption. A firm that adopts higher-technology increases the relative supply and demand for higher-technology inputs. As a result, it positively influences the technology of other firms in its production chain. Using data from a Colombian manufacturing survey, we provide evidence that advanced firms disproportionately value advanced inputs. More novel, we provide suggestive evidence that technological advancements in some firms increase the technology of other firms indirectly linked to them through a common input market.
DOI: 10.3886/e113686
title: Replication data for: Risky Transportation Choices and the Value of a Statistical Life

description: This paper exploits an unusual transportation setting to generate some of the first revealed preference value of a statistical life (VSL) estimates from a low-income setting. We estimate the trade-offs individuals are willing to make between mortality risk and cost as they travel to and from the international airport in Sierra Leone. The setting and original dataset allow us to address some typical omitted variable concerns, and also to compare VSL estimates for travelers from different countries, all facing the same choice situation. The average VSL estimate for African travelers in the sample is US$ 577,000 compared to US$ 924,000 for non-Africans.
DOI: 10.3886/e113687
title: Replication data for: Asymmetric Information and Remittances: Evidence from Matched Administrative Data

description: Using new large-scale, administrative data matching remittances and monthly payroll disbursals, we demonstrate how migrants' earnings in the United Arab Emirates affect their remittances. We consider several types of income changes: Ramadan, weather shocks, a labor reform and returns to time in the UAE. We demonstrate that two key characteristics of the income changes that affect the income elasticity of remittances are the observability of the income and whether the income change is positive or negative. The results are consistent with a private information model where remittances are viewed as payments in an income-sharing contract.
DOI: 10.3886/e113687v1
title: Replication data for: Asymmetric Information and Remittances: Evidence from Matched Administrative Data

description: Using new large-scale, administrative data matching remittances and monthly payroll disbursals, we demonstrate how migrants' earnings in the United Arab Emirates affect their remittances. We consider several types of income changes: Ramadan, weather shocks, a labor reform and returns to time in the UAE. We demonstrate that two key characteristics of the income changes that affect the income elasticity of remittances are the observability of the income and whether the income change is positive or negative. The results are consistent with a private information model where remittances are viewed as payments in an income-sharing contract.
DOI: 10.3886/e113688
title: Replication data for: Team Production in International Labor Markets: Experimental Evidence from the Field

description: Coworkers are increasingly diverse in their nationality and skill sets. This paper studies the effect of diversity on how workers are organized using data from a field experiment conducted in an environment where diversity is pervasive. Findings show that team organization improves outcomes when workers are from the same country. The opposite is true when workers are nationally diverse. These results are more pronounced for teams of workers with specialized skills. Further investigation of the data suggests that nationally diverse teams have difficulty communicating.
DOI: 10.3886/e113688v1
title: Replication data for: Team Production in International Labor Markets: Experimental Evidence from the Field

description: Coworkers are increasingly diverse in their nationality and skill sets. This paper studies the effect of diversity on how workers are organized using data from a field experiment conducted in an environment where diversity is pervasive. Findings show that team organization improves outcomes when workers are from the same country. The opposite is true when workers are nationally diverse. These results are more pronounced for teams of workers with specialized skills. Further investigation of the data suggests that nationally diverse teams have difficulty communicating.
DOI: 10.3886/e113689v1
title: Replication data for: Exploiting Externalities to Estimate the Long-Term Effects of Early Childhood Deworming

description: I investigate whether a school-based deworming intervention in Kenya had long-term effects on young children. I exploit positive externalities from the program to estimate impacts on younger children who were not directly treated. Ten years after the intervention, I find large cognitive effects—comparable to between 0.5 and 0.8 years of schooling—for children who were less than one year old when their communities received school-based mass deworming treatment. I find no effect on child height or stunting. I also estimate effects among children whose older siblings received treatment directly; in this subpopulation, cognition effects are nearly twice as large.
DOI: 10.3886/e113690v1
title: Replication data for: The Family Peer Effect on Mothers' Labor Supply

description: The historical rise in female labor force participation has flattened in recent decades, but the proportion of mothers working full-time has increased. We provide the first empirical evidence that the increase in mothers' working hours is amplified through the influence of family peers. For identification, we exploit partially overlapping peer groups. Using Norwegian administrative data, we find positive and statistically significant family peer effects but only on the intensive margin of women's labor supply. These are in part driven by concerns about time allocation from early childhood and concerns about earnings from age five.
DOI: 10.3886/e113959
title: Replication data for: Rewriting Monetary Policy 101: What's the Fed's Preferred Post-Crisis Approach to Raising Interest Rates?

description: For many years prior to the global financial crisis, the Federal Open Market Committee set a target for the federal funds rate and achieved that target through small purchases and sales of securities in the open market. In the aftermath of the financial crisis, with a superabundant level of reserve balances in the banking system having been created as a result of the Federal Reserve's large-scale asset purchase programs, this approach to implementing monetary policy will no longer work. This paper provides a primer on the Fed's implementation of monetary policy. We use the standard textbook model to illustrate why the approach used by the Federal Reserve before the financial crisis to keep the federal funds rate near the Federal Open Market Committee's target will not work in current circumstances, and explain the approach that the Committee intends to use instead when it decides to begin raising short-term interest rates.
DOI: 10.3886/e113960
title: Replication data for: Household Surveys in Crisis

description: Household surveys, one of the main innovations in social science research of the last century, are threatened by declining accuracy due to reduced cooperation of respondents. While many indicators of survey quality have steadily declined in recent decades, the literature has largely emphasized rising nonresponse rates rather than other potentially more important dimensions to the problem. We divide the problem into rising rates of nonresponse, imputation, and measurement error, documenting the rise in each of these threats to survey quality over the past three decades. A fundamental problem in assessing biases due to these problems in surveys is the lack of a benchmark or measure of truth, leading us to focus on the accuracy of the reporting of government transfers. We provide evidence from aggregate measures of transfer reporting as well as linked microdata. We discuss the relative importance of misreporting of program receipt and conditional amounts of benefits received, as well as some of the conjectured reasons for declining cooperation and for survey errors. We end by discussing ways to reduce the impact of the problem including the increased use of administrative data and the possibilities for combining administrative and survey data.
DOI: 10.3886/e113961v1
title: Replication data for: Seven Centuries of European Economic Growth and Decline

description: This paper investigates very long-run preindustrial economic development. New annual GDP per capita data for six European countries over the last seven hundred years paint a clearer picture of the history of European economic development. We confirm that sustained growth has been a recent phenomenon, but reject the argument that there was no long-run growth in living standards before the Industrial Revolution. Instead, the evidence demonstrates the existence of numerous periods of economic growth before the nineteenth century—periods of unsustained, but raising GDP per capita. We also show that many of the economies experienced substantial economic decline. Thus, rather than being stagnant, pre-nineteenth century European economies experienced a great deal of change. Finally, we offer some evidence that, from the nineteenth century, these economies increased the likelihood of being in a phase of economic growth and reduced the risk of being in a phase of economic decline.
DOI: 10.3886/e113962
title: Replication data for: The Ongoing Evolution of US Retail: A Format Tug-of-War

description: The past 15-20 years have seen substantial and visible changes in the way US retail business is conducted. Explanations about what is happening in the retail sector have been dominated by two powerful and not fully consistent narratives: a prediction that retail sales will migrate online and physical retail will be virtually extinguished, and a prediction that future shoppers will almost all be heading to giant physical stores like warehouse clubs and supercenters. Although online retail will surely continue to be a force shaping the sector going forward and may yet emerge as the dominant mode of commerce in the retail sector in the United States, its time for supremacy has not yet arrived. We discuss evidence indicating that the warehouse clubs/supercenter format has had a greater effect on the shape of retail over the past 15-20 years. We begin with an overview of the retail sector as a whole, which over the long term has been shrinking as a share of total US economic activity and in terms of relative employment share. The retail sector has experienced stronger-than average productivity growth, but this has not been accompanied by commensurate wage growth. After discussing the important e-commerce and warehouse clubs/supercenters segments, we look more broadly at changes across the structure of the retail sector, including scale, concentration, dynamism, and degree of urbanization. Finally, we consider the likely future course of the retail sector.
DOI: 10.3886/e113963
title: Replication data for: Will We Ever Stop Using Fossil Fuels?

description: Scientists believe significant climate change is unavoidable without a drastic reduction in the emissions of greenhouse gases from the combustion of fossil fuels. However, few countries have implemented comprehensive policies that price this externality or devote serious resources to developing low-carbon energy sources. In many respects, the world is betting that we will greatly reduce the use of fossil fuels because we will run out of inexpensive fossil fuels (there will be decreases in supply) and/or technological advances will lead to the discovery of less-expensive low-carbon technologies (there will be decreases in demand). The historical record indicates that the supply of fossil fuels has consistently increased over time and that their relative price advantage over low-carbon energy sources has not declined substantially over time. Without robust efforts to correct the market failures around greenhouse gases, relying on supply and/or demand forces to limit greenhouse gas emissions is relying heavily on hope.
DOI: 10.3886/e113963v1
title: Replication data for: Will We Ever Stop Using Fossil Fuels?

description: Scientists believe significant climate change is unavoidable without a drastic reduction in the emissions of greenhouse gases from the combustion of fossil fuels. However, few countries have implemented comprehensive policies that price this externality or devote serious resources to developing low-carbon energy sources. In many respects, the world is betting that we will greatly reduce the use of fossil fuels because we will run out of inexpensive fossil fuels (there will be decreases in supply) and/or technological advances will lead to the discovery of less-expensive low-carbon technologies (there will be decreases in demand). The historical record indicates that the supply of fossil fuels has consistently increased over time and that their relative price advantage over low-carbon energy sources has not declined substantially over time. Without robust efforts to correct the market failures around greenhouse gases, relying on supply and/or demand forces to limit greenhouse gas emissions is relying heavily on hope.
DOI: 10.3886/e113964v1
title: Replication data for: Forty Years of Oil Price Fluctuations: Why the Price of Oil May Still Surprise Us

description: It has been 40 years since the oil crisis of 1973/74. This crisis has been one of the defining economic events of the 1970s and has shaped how many economists think about oil price shocks. In recent years, a large literature on the economic determinants of oil price fluctuations has emerged. Drawing on this literature, we first provide an overview of the causes of all major oil price fluctuations between 1973 and 2014. We then discuss why oil price fluctuations remain difficult to predict, despite economists' improved understanding of oil markets. Unexpected oil price fluctuations are commonly referred to as oil price shocks. We document that, in practice, consumers, policymakers, financial market participants, and economists may have different oil price expectations, and that, what may be surprising to some, need not be equally surprising to others.
DOI: 10.3886/e113965v1
title: Replication data for: Using Natural Resources for Development: Why Has It Proven So Difficult?

description: Developing economies have found it hard to use natural resource wealth to improve their economic performance. Utilizing resource endowments is a multistage economic and political problem that requires private investment to discover and extract the resource, fiscal regimes to capture revenue, judicious spending and investment decisions, and policies to manage volatility and mitigate adverse impacts on the rest of the economy. Experience is mixed, with some successes (such as Botswana and Malaysia) and more failures. This paper reviews the challenges that are faced in successfully managing resource wealth, the evidence on country performance, and the reasons for disappointing results.
DOI: 10.3886/e114108
title: Replication data for: The Exchange Rate Response to Monetary Policy Innovations

description: We present a new data fact: in response to a monetary tightening, the domestic currency tends to appreciate in developed countries but depreciate in developing countries. A model is developed to rationalize this contrasting pattern. It has three key channels of monetary transmission: a liquidity demand channel, a fiscal channel, and an output channel. The paper shows that a calibrated version of the model can explain the contrast between developed and developing countries. Using counterfactual experiments and empirical evidence, we identify differences in the liquidity demand effect as critical in explaining the contrasting responses generated by the model. (JEL E23, E43, E52, F31, F33, O19)
DOI: 10.3886/e114108v1
title: Replication data for: The Exchange Rate Response to Monetary Policy Innovations

description: We present a new data fact: in response to a monetary tightening, the domestic currency tends to appreciate in developed countries but depreciate in developing countries. A model is developed to rationalize this contrasting pattern. It has three key channels of monetary transmission: a liquidity demand channel, a fiscal channel, and an output channel. The paper shows that a calibrated version of the model can explain the contrast between developed and developing countries. Using counterfactual experiments and empirical evidence, we identify differences in the liquidity demand effect as critical in explaining the contrasting responses generated by the model. (JEL E23, E43, E52, F31, F33, O19)
DOI: 10.3886/e114109v1
title: Replication data for: Pushing on a String: US Monetary Policy Is Less Powerful in Recessions

description: We investigate how the response of the US economy to monetary policy shocks depends on the state of the business cycle. The effects of monetary policy are less powerful in recessions, especially for durables expenditure and business investment. The asymmetry relates to how fast the economy is growing, rather than to the level of resource utilization. There is some evidence that fiscal policy has counteracted monetary policy in recessions but reinforced it in booms. We also find evidence that contractionary policy shocks are more powerful than expansionary shocks, but contractionary shocks have not been more common in booms. So this asymmetry cannot explain our main finding.
DOI: 10.3886/e113428
title: Replication data for: Macroeconomic Uncertainty Indices Based on Nowcast and Forecast Error Distributions

description: We propose new indices to measure macroeconomic uncertainty. The indices measure how unexpected a realization of a representative macroeconomic variable is relative to the unconditional forecast error distribution. We use forecast error distributions based on the nowcasts and forecasts of the Survey of Professional Forecasters. We further compare the new indices with those proposed in the literature and assess their macroeconomic impact.
DOI: 10.3886/e113428v1
title: Replication data for: Macroeconomic Uncertainty Indices Based on Nowcast and Forecast Error Distributions

description: We propose new indices to measure macroeconomic uncertainty. The indices measure how unexpected a realization of a representative macroeconomic variable is relative to the unconditional forecast error distribution. We use forecast error distributions based on the nowcasts and forecasts of the Survey of Professional Forecasters. We further compare the new indices with those proposed in the literature and assess their macroeconomic impact.