DOI: 10.5061/dryad.7hj6q4c
title: Data from: Temperature drives Zika virus transmission: evidence from empirical and mathematical models

description: Temperature is a strong driver of vector-borne disease transmission. Yet,
 for emerging arboviruses we lack fundamental knowledge on the relationship
 between transmission and temperature. Current models rely on the untested
 assumption that Zika virus responds similarly to dengue virus, potentially
 limiting our ability to accurately predict the spread of Zika. We
 conducted experiments to estimate the thermal performance of Zika virus
 (ZIKV) in field-derived Aedes aegypti across eight constant temperatures.
 We observed strong, unimodal effects of temperature on vector competence,
 extrinsic incubation period, and mosquito survival. We used thermal
 responses of these traits to update an existing temperature-dependent
 model to infer temperature effects on ZIKV transmission. ZIKV transmission
 was optimized at 29oC, and had a thermal range of 22.7oC - 34.7oC. Thus,
 as temperatures move toward the predicted thermal optimum (29oC) due to
 climate change, urbanization, or seasonally, Zika could expand north and
 into longer seasons. In contrast, areas that are near the thermal optimum
 were predicted to experience a decrease in overall environmental
 suitability. We also demonstrate that the predicted thermal minimum for
 Zika transmission is 5oC warmer than that of dengue, and current global
 estimates on the environmental suitability for Zika are greatly
 over-predicting its possible range.
description: InfectionData
 These data were
 used in the GLMM binomial analysis. Data includes "Mosquito ID"
 (unique mosquito identifier), "Replicate" (biological
 replicate), "Batch" (mosquito cohort), "Day" (days
 post-infection), "Temperature" (temperature treatment),
 "Infected" (0 = uninfected, 1 = positive body),
 "Disseminated" (0 = uninfected, 1 = positive heads and legs),
 and "Infectious" (0 = uninfected, 1 = positive
 saliva)   
 SurvivalData
 These data were
 used in the mixed effects Cox proportional hazard analysis. Data include
 "Trial" (biological replicate), "Batch" (mosquito
 cohort), "Time(dpi)" (days post-infection), "Temp"
 (temperature treatment), "Cup" (ZIKV = Zika exposed; control =
 uninfected blood fed), "Dead" (0 = alive, 1 = dead),
 "Censored" (mosquitoes removed for force salivation),
 "Alive" (number of mosquitoes alive)   
 zikv_traits
 This csv contains data that were collected in this study and used
 to fit temperature-trait relationships for vector competence (bc),
 extrinsic incubation rate (EIR), and mosquito lifespan (lf).
   <strong>ZIKV_trait_data_fits</strong>   This csv contains the model fits for predicted thermal minimum (T0.mean), the thermal maximum (Tm.mean), and the rate constant (c.mean) for each temperature-trait (bc, EIR, lf) relationship along with the upper and lower bounds for the 95% credible interval R code associated with fitting thermal responses to trait data and generating a thermally dependent Ro model Rcode_TPC.zip   R code for GLMM analysis GLMM_TempAnalysis.R    
description: Please refer to the published manuscript for methods associated
 with data collection and analysis.