DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18507593
title: Model simulation output and satellite data for 2026 Santer et al. AGU Advances paper

description: The model and observational datasets analyzed in the 2026 Santer et al. AGU Advances paper entitled "Modeled and Observed Stratospheric Temperature Changes: Implications for Fingerprint Studies" are provided here.

Observational data

We compare simulated and observed atmospheric temperature changes over six different broad atmospheric layers. The six layers are those sampled by the primary satellite instruments used to measure atmospheric temperatures: the Stratospheric Sounding Unit (SSU) (Zou & Qian, 2016) and the Microwave Sounding Unit and Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU/AMSU). SSU supplies mid- to upper stratospheric temperatures (SSU1, SSU2, and SSU3), while MSU/AMSU provides lower stratospheric temperature (TLS), total tropospheric temperature (TTT) and lower tropospheric temperature (TLT) (Mears & Wentz, 2016; Spenceret al., 2017; Zou et al., 2023). 



Stratospheric Sounding Unit channel 3 (SSU3; approximate altitude range 40-50 km)

Stratospheric Sounding Unit channel 2 (SSU2; approximate altitude range 35-40 km)

Stratospheric Sounding Unit channel 1 (SSU1; approximate altitude range 25-35 km)

Microwave Sounding Unit/Advanced MSU temperature of the lower stratosphere (MSU/AMSU TLS; approximate altitude range 15-20 km)

Microwave Sounding Unit/Advanced MSU temperature of the troposphere (MSU/AMSU TTT; approximate altitude range surface-13 km)

Microwave Sounding Unit/Advanced MSU temperature of the lower troposphere (MSU/AMSU TLT; approximate altitude surface-8 km)


We use the most recent versions of the observed MSU/AMSU and SSU/AMSU-A data. These data are publicly available from three different research groups: Remote Sensing Systems in Santa Rosa, California (RSS), the University of Alabama at Huntsville (UAH), and the NOAA Center for Satellite Applications and Research (STAR).



RSS version 4.0 for TLS, TMT, and TLT.

UAH version 6.1 for TLS, TMT, and TLT.

STAR version 5.0 for TLS, TMT, and TLT.

STAR version 3.0 for SSU1, SSU2, and SSU3.


Model data

We analyze synthetic SSU3, SSU2, SSU1, TLS, TTT, and TLT data from simulations performed under phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) (Eyring et al., 2016). “Synthetic” denotes the calculation of a vertically weighted average of atmospheric temperature in order to facilitate the comparison of simulations and satellite SSU or MSU data. The synthetic SSU and MSU temperatures are from three different types of numerical experiment: 



Simulations with estimated historical changes in natural and anthropopogenic external forcings, which typically commence from January 1850 and end in December 2014.

Scenario runs with post-2014 changes in anthropogenic external forcings that are specified according to a Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP). The SSP used here is referred to as SSP5-8.5 (or as SSP5) because it reaches radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m2 by 2100. We adopt the SSP5 nomenclature here (Riahi et al., 2017). 

Preindustrial control integrations with no year-to-year changes in external forcings. These runs are used to provide estimates of the “noise” of natural internal variability


Each historical simulation was spliced together with a companion SSP5 run initiated from the end of the historical run. This extension of the historical run allows us to compare simulated and observed atmospheric temperatures over the full 40-year period from 1986 to 2025. These are referred to as extended historical runs.

Naming conventions



"piControl": Denotes synthetic SSU and MSU/AMSU data from CMIP6 pre-industrial control runs.

"hst_ssp585" or "historical_extended": Denotes synthetic SSU and MSU/AMSU data from CMIP6 extended historical simulations.

"tf2": Denotes TTT data. tf2 indicates that tropospheric temperatures have been adjusted for the effects of lower stratospheric cooling.

"r1", "r2", "r3", etc.: Identifies realization number for CMIP6 extended historical simulations.

"sm6": Denotes files containing zonal-mean latitude-altitude trends over 2001 to 2026 used for plotting Figure 3 in the main text.


Further details of all model and observational temperature data sets are provided in the Supporting Information of the 2026 Santer et al. paper AGU Advances entitled "Modeled and Observed Stratospheric Temperature Changes: Implications for Fingerprint Studies".

 



historical_extended_CMIP6_09models_ssu1.tar : .tar file containing global-mean SSU1 time series for 32 CMIP6 extended historical runs (ASCII).

historical_extended_CMIP6_09models_ssu2.tar : .tar file containing global-mean SSU2 time series for 32 CMIP6 extended historical runs (ASCII).

historical_extended_CMIP6_09models_ssu3.tar : .tar file containing global-mean SSU3 time series for 32 CMIP6 extended historical runs (ASCII).

historical_extended_CMIP6_09models_tf2.tar : .tar file containing global-mean TTT time series for 32 CMIP6 extended historical runs (ASCII).

historical_extended_CMIP6_09models_tls.tar : .tar file containing global-mean TLS time series for 32 CMIP6 extended historical runs (ASCII).

historical_extended_CMIP6_09models_tlt.tar : .tar file containing global-mean TLT time series for 32 CMIP6 extended historical runs (ASCII).

piControl_CMIP6_09models_ssu1.tar : .tar file containing global-mean SSU1 time series for 9 CMIP6 preindustrial control runs (ASCII).

piControl_CMIP6_09models_ssu2.tar : .tar file containing global-mean SSU2 time series for 9 CMIP6 preindustrial control runs (ASCII).

piControl_CMIP6_09models_ssu3.tar : .tar file containing global-mean SSU3 time series for 9 CMIP6 preindustrial control runs (ASCII).

piControl_CMIP6_09models_tf2.tar : .tar file containing global-mean TTT time series for 9 CMIP6 preindustrial control runs (ASCII).

piControl_CMIP6_09models_tls.tar : .tar file containing global-mean TLS time series for 9 CMIP6 preindustrial control runs (ASCII).

piControl_CMIP6_09models_tlt.tar : .tar file containing global-mean TLT time series for 9 CMIP6 preindustrial control runs (ASCII).

newamp1_ALLOBS_ssu1-GLB2_STR_v30jan26_r1986_2025_s1986_2025_nofilt.d : STAR global-mean SSU1 time series (ASCII).

newamp1_ALLOBS_ssu2-GLB2_STR_v30jan26_r1986_2025_s1986_2025_nofilt.d : STAR global-mean SSU2 time series (ASCII).

newamp1_ALLOBS_ssu3-GLB2_STR_v30jan26_r1986_2025_s1986_2025_nofilt.d : STAR global-mean SSU3 time series (ASCII).

satellite_data_tf2.tar : .tar file containing RSS, UAH, and STAR global-mean TTT time series (ASCII).

satellite_data_tls.tar : .tar file containing RSS, UAH, and STAR global-mean TLS time series (ASCII).

satellite_data_tlt.tar : .tar file containing RSS, UAH, and STAR global-mean TLT time series (ASCII).

sm6_cesm2_05x05_hst_ssp585_a0_yz_wf_r0000_0000.nc : zonal-mean latitude-altitude trends over 2001-2025 for cesm2 (netCDF).

sm6_cesm2_waccm_05x05_hst_ssp585_a0_yz_wf_r0000_0000.nc : zonal-mean latitude-altitude trends over 2001-2025 for cesm2_waccm (netCDF).

sm6_hadgem3_gc31_ll_05x05_hst_ssp585_a0_yz_wf_r0000_0000.nc : zonal-mean latitude-altitude trends over 2001-2025 for hadgem3_gc31_ll (netCDF).

sm6_ipsl_cm6a_lr_05x05_hst_ssp585_a0_yz_wf_r0000_0000.nc : zonal-mean latitude-altitude trends over 2001-2025 for ipsl_cm6a_lr (netCDF).

sm6_miroc_es2l_05x05_hst_ssp585_a0_yz_wf_r0000_0000.nc : zonal-mean latitude-altitude trends over 2001-2025 for miroc_es2l (netCDF).

sm6_mpi_esm1_2_hr_05x05_hst_ssp585_a0_yz_wf_r0000_0000.nc : zonal-mean latitude-altitude trends over 2001-2025 for mpi_esm1_2_hr (netCDF).

sm6_mpi_esm1_2_lr_05x05_hst_ssp585_a0_yz_wf_r0000_0000.nc : zonal-mean latitude-altitude trends over 2001-2025 for mpi_esm1_2_lr (netCDF).

sm6_mri_esm2_0_05x05_hst_ssp585_a0_yz_wf_r0000_0000.nc : zonal-mean latitude-altitude trends over 2001-2025 for mri_esm2_0 (netCDF).

sm6_SC_TREND1_09models_hst_ssp585_a0_yz_EM_r0000_0000.nc : zonal-mean latitude-altitude trends over 2001-2025 for multi-model average (netCDF).

sm6_SSSRRR_jan26_05x05_hist_rcp85_a0_yz_wf_r0000_0000.nc : zonal-mean latitude-altitude trends over 2001-2025 for STAR SSU1/2/3 and RSS TLS/TTT/TLT (netCDF).

sm6_SSSUUU_jan26_05x05_hist_rcp85_a0_yz_wf_r0000_0000.nc : zonal-mean latitude-altitude trends over 2001-2025 for STAR SSU1/2/3 and UAH TLS/TTT/TLT (netCDF).

sm6_ukesm1_0_ll_05x05_hst_ssp585_a0_yz_wf_r0000_0000.nc : zonal-mean latitude-altitude trends over 2001-2025 for ukesm1_0_ll (netCDF).

sm6_SN_STDEV1_09models_hst_ssp585_a0_yz_EM_r0000_0000.nc : zonal-mean latitude-altitude S/N ratio for trends over 2001-2025 (netCDF).