DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.10182972
title: Global Ocean Heat Content Anomalies and Ocean Heat Uptake based on mapping Argo data using local Gaussian processes

description: Monthly Ocean Heat Content Anomalies (OHCA) in the top 2000 dbar of the ocean are calculated (during 2004-2024, equatorward of 65 degree latitude) subtracting the mean over the period 2004-2024 from the monthly time series of OHC. Yearly OHCA time series are then calculated that include 1. one point per year, i.e., from averaging Jan to Dec (see files ending in “yearly.nc”), and 2. two points per year, i.e., from averaging Jan to Dec and Jul to Jun, respectively  (see files ending in “yearly2.nc”). OHC fields are mapped using locally stationary Gaussian processes (defined over space and time) with data-driven decorrelation scales (Kuusela and Stein, 2018). A linear time trend was included in the estimate of the mean field (along with spatial terms and harmonics for the annual cycle). Mapping is done separately for different vertical sections: 15-20 dbar, 15-300 dbar, 300-700 dbar, 700-1850 dbar, 1800-1850 dbar. The 15-20 dbar (1800-1850 dbar) section is used to estimate OHCA for 0-15 dbar (1850-2000 dbar), where observations are sparser. Different vertical sections are combined to estimate global OHCA time series for 0-2000 dbar, 0-700 dbar, 700-2000 dbar (as indicated in the file names). The attribute "area" is included in the netcdf files and it tells the corresponding surface area for the estimates. Regions of the ocean that are shallower than 300 m or are not sufficiently well sampled by the Argo array are not included. Maps of the ocean masks used for the different vertical sections can be found in the .png files (blue shading indicates the area used for the horizontal integral); the bathymetry mask by Roemmich and Gilson (included in the file RG_ArgoClim_Temperature_2019.nc at https://sio-argo.ucsd.edu/RG_Climatology.html) is also used to define the ocean mask. Ocean Heat Uptake is calculated from the monthly OHCA and then averaged as described above to produce yearly time series included in the files for the different layers.

For the uncertainty at each time point, the standard deviation of each OHCA/OHU value in the time series is included. When plotting a time series, the user may consider, e.g., shading plus/minus 1* or 1.96*standard deviation (corresponding to a  confidence level of 68% or 95% respectively). These standard deviations in the files are estimated using spatially and temporally dependent conditional simulations of monthly gridded anomalies. When combining different layers, the standard deviation of the sum is conservatively estimated as the sum of the standard deviations. 

Finally, OHCA/OHU trends are estimated via a least-squares fit and reported in the variable metadata with uncertainties (confidence level of 68%). Trend uncertainties are estimated by repeating the fit for each member of the conditional simulation ensemble described above.

Please note that file gcos2026op20260127b_LocalGP_Giglio_etal_using2005_2024baseline.nc includes anomalies during 2004 to 2025 (calculated relative to the baseline period 2005-2024) for OHC (in J/m2 and ZJ) and volume average temperature within layers 0-300 dbar, 0-700 dbar, 700-2000 dbar, and 0-2000 dbar. Maps of the ocean masks used for the different vertical sections can be found in gcos2026op20260127b_LocalGP_Giglio_etal_using2005_2024baseline_ocean_mask.zip.