DOI: 10.58073/sruc.27940221.v1
title: <b>Small herd considerations for SSBSS 410-day calving intervals</b>

description: <b>Overview</b>This data illustrates uses 2023 data to assess the potential financial impact of the Scottish Government's proposed Scottish Suckler Beef Support Scheme (SSBSS) 410-day calving interval condition on small herds. In addition, for herds with less than 10 dams calving in 2023 the number of businesses (BRN - Business Reference Number) and number of animals affected by the number of ineligible dams (0-9) arising from the 410-day calving interval is provided. The analysis utilises Cattle Tracing System (CTS) that SRUC have access to through a data sharing agreement with the Animal and Plant Health Agency (APHA) and devolved administrations. Through linking the CTS data extracts to the Scottish Government's Rural Payments and Inspectorate Division (RPID) payments data this analysis only uses beef breed dams on agricultural holdings associated with SSBSS claims.<b>Financial Impact Illustration (page 1)</b>This hypothetical illustration uses the published 2023 SSBSS payment rates alongside the estimated payment rates if a 410 day calving interval was to be introduced retrospectively (based on 2023 published analysis https://ruralexchange.scot/policy/ssbss-410day-calving-interval/).The number of dams that calved in 2023 provides a proxy for the number of eligible SSBSS beef calves. For 2023 this this shown in the first column in grey. The 2023 existing payment estimate for herds of 1 to 50 in provided in the first column (for simplification all dams are assumed to have calves that meet the 30 day retention period).The estimated number of eligible dams, expected payments and change in payments are then shown for 410 calving rate conditions where different numbers of dams are ineligible due to failing to meet the 410 day threshold. The first column for each coloured scenario grouping shows how many eligible dams that 2023 herd size would have under that scenario. <b>Scenario (a): 100% of dams meet the 410 day condition (l</b><b>ight blue)</b> - there is 100% eligibility based on dam performance. Any BRN falling into this scenario is predicted to receive a financial uplift in 2025 due to the ringfenced Mainland and Island SSBSS budgets.<b>Scenario (b): 1 dam fails to </b><b>meet the 410 day condition (yellow).</b> Those herds with 1-7 dams (proxy for calves) in 2023 would be faced with reduced levels of SSBSS support (i.e. if a herd claim is less than 8 animals then the only way they would not face lower payments is to have 100% claims meeting the 410 day dam condition). All other herd sizes see uplifts if they only have a single calf not being eligible due to the 410 CI condition.<b>Scenario (c): 2 dams fail to </b><b>meet the 410 day condition (p</b><b>each). </b>Herds with 1-15 calves in 2023 would be faced reduced support if there were 2 ineligible animals due to the 410 day dam condition. All other herd sizes would see uplifts if they only had 2 calves ineligible due to the 410 day dam condition. It is worth noting that 2 out of 3 calves being ineligible due to the calving interval dam condition under this scenario would mean only 33% eligibility and 61% reduction in payment – a 61% reduction in payment on a 50 calf claim would equate to only having 16 eligible calves.<b>Scenario (d): 3 dams fail to </b><b>meet the 410 day condition (p</b><b>ink).</b> On the mainland, herds with 21 SSBSS claims would receive lower payments in 2023 if there were 3 ineligible calves due to 410 CI rule. On Islands SSBSS claims of 23 calved or less would receive lower payments if 3 animals failed due to the dam conditionality condition.These scenarios can be extended.<b>Herds under 10 dams (page 2)</b>In the first table the number of businesses (BRNs), calved dams and the number of 410 day calving interval ineligible and eligible dams are provided by herd size classes alongside relative proportions of businesses and animal. Herd sizes are based on the number of dams calving with 2023 (1-9 dams, 10-19 dams, 20-29 dams, 30+ dams). Note: eligible dams include previous calved cows that must meet 410 CI condition plus first calving heifers. The data shows that 15% of mainland and 39% of island SSBSS claimants (BRNs) had less than 10 dams in 2023 with 14% and 18% of BRNs with 10-19 dams respectively. Herds of under 10 dams accounted for 1.2% of mainland dams and 5.2% of island dams in 2023. Herds of 10-19 accounted for 3.1% of mainland dams and 7.3% of island dams in 2023. On the mainland 22.6% of dams did not meet the 410 day cow calving interval condition in herd sizes of under 10 dams. On the islands 18.1% of dams failed to meet the 410 day condition in 2023. This compared to 13.7% and 12.3% of dams in herds of 30+ dams in the mainland and islands respectively.The second table in page 2 shows the number of businesses (BRNs) and dams with herd sizes of less than 10 that have different numbers of ineligible claims due to the 410 day calving interval. For example:On the mainland 44% of herds (and 38% of dams) had no ineligible dams due to the 410 calving interval rule. On the islands 51% of herds and 45% of dams had no animals ineligible due to the 410 day rule in 2023.Herds with 1 ineligible animal due to the 410 day rule accounted for 27% of SSBSS businesses with less than 10 dams in both the mainland and islands - accounting for 28% and 29% of the dams in these small herds in the mainland and islands.