DOI: 10.5255/ukda-sn-6777-1
title: Ethnic Population Projections for the United Kingdom and Local Areas, 2001-2051
title: What Happens when International Migrants Settle? Ethnic Group Trends and Projections for UK Local Areas under Alternative Scenarios

description: The aims of this project were to:&lt;ul&gt;&lt;li&gt;understand the demographic changes that United Kingdom local ethnic populations are presently experiencing and are likely to experience in the remainder of the 21st century &lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;understand the impact that international migration is having on the size and ethnic composition of UK local populations&lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;understand the role that differences in fertility between the UK's ethnic groups plays in shaping current and future trends&lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;understand the role that mortality differences between ethnic groups is playing in the changing demography of the UK's local populations&lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;understand how the ethnic diversity of UK local populations is changing and likely to change in the future&lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;deliver the projections as a resource for use by social science in the UK&lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;build capacity in the analysis of demographic change through the development of young and middle career researchers&lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;tap into the best practice internationally to benefit the UK social science community.&lt;/li&gt;&lt;/ul&gt;To achieve the project aims, the objectives were to:&lt;ul&gt;&lt;li&gt;build projections of the populations of ethnic groups for UK local areas&lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;use the population projection model to explore alternative futures.&lt;/li&gt;&lt;/ul&gt;The project built a model for projecting the ethnic group populations of UK Local Authorities (LAs), which handles 352 LAs, 16 ethnic groups, 102 ages and 2 sexes. To drive the projections, estimates of the components of ethnic change were prepared for 2001-7. A new method produced UK estimates of ethnic life expectancy, ranging from 82 years for Chinese women to 77 for Pakistani. A future 2% decline in mortality per annum was assumed. Ethnic fertility estimates showed that only Indians, Pakistanis and Bangladeshis had total fertility rates above replacement. Small declines in fertility were forecast. New estimates of the local distribution of immigration were made, using administrative data, because of concerns about official figures. The ethnicity of both immigrants and emigrants for local areas was projected. Estimates were constructed of the ethnic group probabilities for internal in- and out-migration for LAs using 2001 Census data. These probabilities were assumed constant in the future, as migration was stable between 2001 and 2008. Five projections were produced. Two benchmark projections, using constant inputs from 2001-2, forecast the UK population would be 62 and 56 million in 2051.The official projection reports 77 million. The Trend projection, aligned to ONS assumptions projected 78 million for 2051. Using revised assumptions 80 million was projected in a fourth projection. When the model for emigration was changed the projected population was only 71 million. All projections showed ageing and dispersion of ethnic minorities. By 2051 the UK will have a larger, more diverse and integrated population.&lt;br&gt; &lt;br&gt; For further information about the project, see documentation and the &lt;a href="http://www.esrc.ac.uk/my-esrc/grants/RES-163-25-0032/read" title="What happens when international migrants settle? Ethnic group population trends and projections for UK local areas under alternative scenarios"&gt;What happens when international migrants settle? Ethnic group population trends and projections for UK local areas under alternative scenarios&lt;/a&gt; ESRC award page.&lt;br&gt; &lt;br&gt;