DOI: 10.3886/icpsr37072.v5
title: Monitoring the Future: Restricted-Use Panel Data, United States, 1976-2019
title: Version 5

description: The Monitoring the Future (MTF) project is a long-term epidemiologic and etiologic study of substance use among youth and adults in the United States. It is conducted at the University of Michigan's Institute for Social Research, and funded by a series of investigator-initiated research grants from the National Institute on Drug Abuse. MTF has two components: MTF Main and MTF Panel.
From its inception in 1975, the cross-sectional MTF Main study has collected data annually from nationally representative samples of 12,000-19,000 high school seniors in 12th grade located in approximately 135 schools nationwide. Beginning in 1991, similar annual cross-sectional surveys of nationally representative samples of 8th and 10th graders have been conducted. In all, approximately 45,000 students annually respond to about 100 drug use and demographic questions, as well as to about 200 additional questions divided among multiple survey forms on other topics such as attitudes toward government, social institutions, race relations, changing gender roles, educational aspirations, occupational aims, and marital plans.
The longitudinal MTF Panel study conducts follow-up surveys with representative subsamples of respondents from each 12th grade cohort participating in MTF Main. From each cohort, a sample of about 2,450 students are selected for longitudinal follow-up, with an oversampling of students who reported prior drug use during their 12th grade survey. Longitudinal follow-up currently spans modal ages 19-30 and 35-60. For surveys at modal ages 19-30, the sample is randomly split into two halves (approx. 1,225 each) to be followed every other year. One half-sample begins its first follow-up the year after high school (at modal age 19), and the other half-sample begins its first follow-up in the second year after high school (at modal age 20). Thus, six young adult follow-up (FU) surveys occur between modal ages 19-30, at modal ages 19/20 (FU1), 21/22 (FU2), 23/24 (FU3), 25/26 (FU4), 27/28 (FU5), and 29/30 (FU6). After age 30, respondents are surveyed every five years: 35, 40, 45, 50, 55, and 60 (these are referred to as FZ surveys). The FZ surveys cover many of the same topics as the 12th grade and FU surveys and include additional questions on life events and health.
MTF Panel surveys for the young adults (ages 19-30) were conducted using mailed paper surveys from 1977-2017. In 2018 and 2019, a random half of all those aged 19-30 received a mailed paper survey, while the other half were surveyed using a new procedure that encouraged participation using web surveys (web-push). The FZ surveys (ages 35-60) were conducted using mailed paper surveys through the 2019 data collection.
More information about the MTF project can be accessed through the Monitoring the Future website. Annual reports are published by the research team, describing the data collection and trends over time.
description: Panel analysis weights are available and recommended for use with all analyses.
Using the panel analysis weight allows estimates
to weight back to the national 12th grade samples while accounting for:

the
probability of initial selection into the 12th grade samples,
the fraction
of each 12th grade sample not eligible for panel selection because they did not
provide contact information and/or data on sex
the panel sample selection process including oversampling of those reporting drug use at base year
panel attrition.

Please see the MTF Occasional Paper 98: An Updated Weighting Strategy for the Monitoring the Future Panel Study for methodological details on the creation of the panel analysis
weights, and review Appendix B - MTF Panel Analysis Weight
Selection and Normalization in the MTF Restricted Panel Data User's Guide for analytic examples.
description: Response Rates: For information regarding response rates, users should refer to the summary information in Appendix A of the MTF Restricted Panel Data User's Guide.
description: The nationally-representative base year cohort sample (i.e. each
high school senior class) was selected using a multistage area probability
sample design involving three selection stages: (1) geographic areas or primary sampling units (PSUs), (2) schools (or linked groups of schools) within PSUs, and (3) students within sampled schools.
Each year, 2,450 respondents to the 12th grade survey were
selected for biennial longitudinal follow-up. The panel sample was selected
within school by form and gender, and each base-year school was required to
have a minimum of two follow-up selections (individuals). The base year
sampling weight was factored into the targeted sample size for each
school/form/gender combination. An illicit drug user/nonuser stratification was
created, based on responses to nine base year questions about 30-day drug use.
(An individual was considered a "user" if they reported any use of
LSD, hallucinogens other than LSD, cocaine, amphetamines,
sedatives/barbiturates, tranquilizers, heroin, or narcotics other than heroin,
or used marijuana 20 or more times in the past 30 days.) Illicit drug users
were sampled at a 3-to-1 rate relative to non-users.
When
the 12th grade respondents originally selected for follow-up reach age 35, they continue
to be surveyed every five years at ages 35, 40, 45, 50, 55, and 60. Single
questionnaires are presented at each age, covering many of the same topics as
the age 19-30 surveys and including additional questions on life events, drug
use, and health.
Please see the MTF Restricted Panel Data User's Guide for additional sampling details.
description: Datasets: 
DS0: Study-Level Files
DS1: Restricted-Use Core Panel Data
DS2: Restricted-Use FZ Panel Data
DS3: Restricted-Use Panel Analysis Weights Data
description: Young adult and Middle adult follow-up of the U.S. high school seniors in MTF in the year of the baseline interview. Smallest Geographic Unit: zip code
description: mail questionnaire; on-site questionnaire