DOI: 10.5061/dryad.0s9j3
title: Data from: The seasonal climate niche predicts phenology and distribution of an ephemeral annual plant, Mollugo verticillata

description: 1.Many short-lived species complete their life cycles during brief
 seasonal windows of favorable environmental conditions. Such species may
 persist in the face of climate warming by migration to track their
 seasonal climate niche in space and/or by phenological shifts to track
 favorable conditions in time within the year. To describe the seasonal
 climate niche of the short-lived annual Mollugo verticillata in
 California, we used data from herbarium specimens and historic climate
 records to estimate environmental conditions at the location, month and
 year of each collection. 2.We used these data in a MaxEnt framework to
 construct a seasonal species distribution model (SDM) of the species’
 climate niche within the total climate space available across all seasons
 and locations in California. The model provides fine-scale spatial and
 temporal predictions of habitat suitability, predicting both where and
 when the species should be observed. 3.We compared the predictions of the
 model to those from a conventional SDM based on mean annual climate data.
 Both models showed that M. verticillata is limited to warm environments
 within California. However, the seasonal SDM also predicted phenology by
 mapping climate suitability across the state for each month of the year.
 Mollugo verticillata is limited to warm months, and its seasonal climate
 niche shifts in space across California in the course of the year. 4.We
 used the seasonal SDM to map the predicted future species distribution for
 each month of the year under three warming scenarios. The species is
 predicted to expand its range and occur earlier in the year in most
 locations; in the warmest locations seasonal suitability is predicted to
 decline in the warmest months, which may result in bimodal phenology with
 a mid-summer gap. 5.Synthesis - We developed a novel species distribution
 model using herbarium records and monthly weather data, which predicts not
 only where a short-lived species should be found, but when during the year
 it is predicted to occur in those areas. This model can be used to predict
 how climate change will affect the species distribution in space as well
 as seasonal phenology across the landscape.
description: background_by_month_yearThis is the background climate file. This is where all the black lines and dots from figure 3 come from.mvdlThis is the file that contains the locations and dates of all the M. verticillata specimen records used to construct the seasonal and conventional SDMs. This is the source of the red lines and dots in Figure 3.aetThis is the raster file for actual evapotranspiration used to construct the conventional SDM in Figure 2.soil_thickThis is the raster file of soil thickness used to construct the conventional SDM in figure 2.tmeanThis is the raster file of mean (mean monthly temperature) used in the conventional SDM in figure 2.tdiffThis is the raster file of tdiff (difference between monthly low and high temperature) used to construct the conventional SDM in figure 2.pptthe raster of annual precipitation. This file is discussed but was excluded from the conventional SDM.cwdthe raster of climatic water deficit. This file was not included in the conventional SDM but is discussed in the text.