DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.7716727
title: Dataset of the paper: Uncertainty Quantification for Machine Learning-based Ionosphere and Space Weather Forecasting

description: The *csv files contain forecasted one-day-ahead Vertical Total Electron Content (VTEC), consisting of the mean/median VTEC values and the upper and lower VTEC bounds of the 95% confidence intervals of 4 models based on machine learning for test data. The first part of the *csv file name corresponds to the type of model: SE stands for the super-ensemble VTEC model, QGB stands for the quantile gradient boosting VTEC model, BNN1 stands for the Bayesian neural network VTEC model, and BNN2 stands for the Bayesian neural network with negative log-likelihood (NLL) loss VTEC model. The second part of the file name refers to the geographic location of the VTEC points for which the forecast is performed, i.e., 10E70N for 10 degree of longitude and 70 degree of latitude, 10E40N for 10 degree of longitude and 40 degree of latitude, and 10E10N for 10 degree of longitude and 10 degree of latitude. The last part of the file name corresponds to the test year, i.e., year 2017. The SE_*_2017.csv file consists of 14 columns. The index column ("Date-time") is expressed in Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) as YYYY-MM-DD. Columns 1-3 contain the VTEC forecast results of Random Forest (RF) trained on three data subsets; columns 4-6 contain the VTEC forecast results of Adaptive Boosting (AB) trained on three data subsets; columns 7-9 contain the VTEC forecast results of Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) trained on three data subsets. Column 10 ("Mean") represents the mean of columns 1-9, i.e., the ensemble mean; column 11 ("Std") represents the standard deviation of columns 1-9, i.e., the ensemble spread; columns 12 ("UB") and 13 ("LB") contain the upper and lower bounds of the 95% confidence interval of VTEC, respectively; and column 14 contains the Global Ionosphere Maps (GIM) values of CODE, i.e., the ground-truth in this study. The QGB_*_2017.csv file consists of 4 columns. The index column ("Date-time") is expressed in UTC as YYYY-MM-DD. Column 1 ("Median") contains the median VTEC forecast, column 2 ("LB") contains the lower VTEC bound of the 95% confidence interval, column 3 ("UB") contains the upper VTEC bound of the 95% confidence interval, and column 4 contains the GIM values of CODE, i.e., the ground-truth in this study. The BNN*_2017.csv file consists of 5 columns. The index column ("Date-time") is expressed in UTC as YYYY-MM-DD. Column 1 ("Mean") contains the mean VTEC forecast, column 2 ("Std") contains the standard deviation, column 3 contains GIM values of CODE, i.e., ground-truth in this study; column 4 ("UB") contains the upper VTEC bound of the 95% confidence interval, and column 5 ("LB") contains the lower VTEC bound of the 95% confidence interval. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Contact ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- If you have any questions regarding these data, please contact: Randa Natras Deutsches Geodätisches Forschungsinstitut (DGFI-TUM) Technical University of Munich Arcisstraße 21 80333 München randa.natras@tum.de