DOI: 10.5285/1030d40a071d4929bf04e08bfbd22c10
title: Technical Summary of the Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report - data for Figure TS.25 v20221111

description: Data for Figure TS.25 from the Technical Summary of the Working Group I (WGI) Contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). Figure TS.25 shows the distribution of projected changes in selected climatic impact-driver (CID) indices for selected regions for Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phases 5 and 6 (CMIP6, CMIP5) and Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) model ensembles. --------------------------------------------------- How to cite this dataset --------------------------------------------------- When citing this dataset, please include both the data citation below (under 'Citable as') and the following citation for the report component from which the figure originates: Arias, P.A., N. Bellouin, E. Coppola, R.G. Jones, G. Krinner, J. Marotzke, V. Naik, M.D. Palmer, G.-K. Plattner, J. Rogelj, M. Rojas, J. Sillmann, T. Storelvmo, P.W. Thorne, B. Trewin, K. Achuta Rao, B. Adhikary, R.P. Allan, K. Armour, G. Bala, R. Barimalala, S. Berger, J.G. Canadell, C. Cassou, A. Cherchi, W. Collins, W.D. Collins, S.L. Connors, S. Corti, F. Cruz, F.J. Dentener, C. Dereczynski, A. Di Luca, A. Diongue Niang, F.J. Doblas-Reyes, A. Dosio, H. Douville, F. Engelbrecht, V. Eyring, E. Fischer, P. Forster, B. Fox-Kemper, J.S. Fuglestvedt, J.C. Fyfe, N.P. Gillett, L. Goldfarb, I. Gorodetskaya, J.M. Gutierrez, R. Hamdi, E. Hawkins, H.T. Hewitt, P. Hope, A.S. Islam, C. Jones, D.S. Kaufman, R.E. Kopp, Y. Kosaka, J. Kossin, S. Krakovska, J.-Y. Lee, J. Li, T. Mauritsen, T.K. Maycock, M. Meinshausen, S.-K. Min, P.M.S. Monteiro, T. Ngo-Duc, F. Otto, I. Pinto, A. Pirani, K. Raghavan, R. Ranasinghe, A.C. Ruane, L. Ruiz, J.-B. Sallée, B.H. Samset, S. Sathyendranath, S.I. Seneviratne, A.A. Sörensson, S. Szopa, I. Takayabu, A.-M. Tréguier, B. van den Hurk, R. Vautard, K. von Schuckmann, S. Zaehle, X. Zhang, and K. Zickfeld, 2021: Technical Summary. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 33−144, doi:10.1017/9781009157896.002. --------------------------------------------------- List of data provided --------------------------------------------------- For all the panels, the data provided consists of ensemble statistics (q5, median and q95) of the spatial averages over the IPCC AR6 regions of the list of indicators below for CMIP5, CMIP6 and CORDEX, for the recent past (1995-2014), the mid-term (2041-2060) and long-term (2081-2100) future horizons, as well as the +1.5, +2, and +4°C of global warming levels. The list of indicators shown on the figure is: - number of days per year with SWE &gt; 100mm (North-America) - number of days with the NOAA Heat Index exceeding 41°C (Central-America and Asia) - the 100-yr return period stream flow (South-America, Europe, Africa) - the number of days per year with Maximum temperature exceeding 35°C (Asia) - the Shoreline position change (Asia, Australasia) SWE stands for snow water equivalent NOAA stands for National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. --------------------------------------------------- Data provided in relation to figure --------------------------------------------------- Upper panels of Panel (a): The change of the number of days with SWE &gt; 100mm are related with figure 12.10(d) with the corresponding file names: ** 'CMIP5_NORTH-AMERICA_snw_mask14_AR6_regional_averages.json' : regional averages for the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble of number of days per year with snow water equivalent over 100mm (SWE100) in North-America for recent past (1995-2014), mid-term (2041-2060) long-term (2081-2100) for RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, and for three global warming levels: 1.5, 2 and 4; the file contains the median (dots in the subpanels) and the 5th (q5) and 95th (q95) uncertainty estimates (used to plot the vertical bars) ** 'NAM-22_CORDEX_NORTH-AMERICA_SWE_mask14_AR6_regional_averages.json' : same as previous file for the CORDEX-core NAM-22 multimodel ensemble ** 'CMIP6_NORTH-AMERICA_snw_mask14_AR6_regional_averages.json' : same as previous file for CMIP6 (ssp126 instead of RCP2.6 and ssp585 instead of RCP8.5) Middle panels of Panel (a): The change of the NOAA HI exceeding 41°C are related to figure 12.SM.2 with the corresponding file names: ** 'CMIP5_HI41_AR6_regional_averages.json' : data for the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble ** 'CMIP6_HI41_AR6_regional_averages.json' : data for the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble ** 'CORDEX_HI41_AR6_regional_averages.json' : data for the CORDEX multi-model ensemble see the description of the data associated with figure 12.SM.2 for more details on the structure of the files Lower panels of Panel (a) and left panels of Panel (b): 100-yr return period stream flow is shown for South America (figure 12.8(c)), Europe (figure 12.9(c)) and Africa (figure 12.5(c)) with corresponding file names: ** 'Q100_${ensemble}/Q100_${scenario}_${period}.nc_${CORDEX_domain}.txt': files containing the median and 5th/95th percentiles of each ensemble of the 1-in-100yr river discharge per unit catchment area (Q100) regional averages of time slices, with: - ${ensemble}: CMIP5, CMIP6 or CORDEX-core - ${scenario}: the name of the scenario : ssp126, ssp585, rcp26, rcp85 - ${period}: the explicit period used to compute the temporal average: 1995-2014 (recent past), 2041-2060 (mid-term) and 2081-2099 (long term) - ${CORDEX_domain}: the CORDEX domain ** 'Q100_${ensemble}/${GWL}_${CORDEX_domain}.txt' : files containing the Q100 regional averages of global warming levels with: - ${ensemble}: CMIP5, CMIP6 or CORDEX-core - ${GWL}: the Global Warming Level: 1.5, 2 or 4 - ${CORDEX_domain}: the CORDEX domain Right panels of Panel (b): The Maximum temperature exceeding 35°C (upper right) are related with figure 12.SM.1 with the corresponding file names: ** 'CMIP5_tx35isimip_AR6_regional_averages.json' : data for the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble ** 'CMIP6_tx35isimip_AR6_regional_averages.json' : data for the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble ** 'CORDEX_tx35isimip_AR6_regional_averages.json' : data for the CORDEX multi-model ensemble see the description of the data associated with figure 12.SM.1 for more details on the structure of the files The Shoreline position change for EAS and RFE (upper middle right) (related to figure 12.6(d)), and in Australasia (lower right) (related to figure 12.7(d)) have corresponding data file names: ** 'globalErosionProjections_by_AR6_region_${scenario}_${horizon).json' : regional averages of shoreline position changes for Africa, for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios (${scenario} = RCP45 and ${scenario} = RCP85 respectively) and the 2050 (mid-term, in blue) and 2100 (long-term, in red) future horizons (${horizon}=2050 and ${horizon}=2100 respectively) against the recent past period (2010); the file contains the median (dots in the subpanels) and the 5th (q5) and 95th (q95) uncertainty estimates (used to plot the vertical bars) The four panels on the NOAA Heat Index exceeding 41°C (lower middle right) are related with figure 12.SM.2 with the corresponding file names: ** 'CMIP5_HI41_AR6_regional_averages.json': data for the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble ** 'CMIP6_HI41_AR6_regional_averages.json': data for the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble ** 'CORDEX_HI41_AR6_regional_averages.json': data for the CORDEX multi-model ensemble GWL stands for global warming levels. RCP2.6 is the Representative Concentration Pathway for 2.6 Wm-2 global warming by 2100. RCP8.5 is the Representative Concentration Pathway for 8.5 Wm-2 global warming by 2100. --------------------------------------------------- Notes on reproducing the figure from the provided data --------------------------------------------------- You can find the scripts and the data to reproduce the figures on Github (link in Related Documents section), following the description below. Links to the catalogue records for relevant Chapter 12 figures are in the Related Records section of this catalogue record. Panel a: - the upper panels on the change of the number of days with SWE &gt; 100mm are related with figure 12.10, panel d - the middle three panels on the change of the NOAA HI exceeding 41°C are related with figure 12.SM.2 - the lower panels on the 100-yr return period stream flow are related with figure 12.8, panel c Panel b: - upper left panels on the 100-yr return period stream flow in Europe are related with figure 12.9, panel c - upper right panels on the Maximum temperature exceeding 35°C are related with figure 12.SM.1 - middle right panels on Shoreline position change for EAS and RFE are associated with figure 12.6, panel d - the four panels right below on the NOAA Heat Index exceeding 41°C are related with figure 12.SM.2 - the lower left panels on the 100-yr return period stream flow in Africa are related with figure 12.5, panel c - the lower right panels on the Shoreline position change in Australasia are related with figure 12.7, panel d The final assembling of the panels to get the final figure was done with post-processing. --------------------------------------------------- Sources of additional information --------------------------------------------------- The following weblinks are provided in the Related Documents section of this catalogue record: - Link to the figure on the IPCC AR6 website - Link to the report component containing the figure (Technical Summary) - Link to Github for chapter 12 containing data and code - Link to code for Chapter 12 archived on Zenodo