DOI: 10.5061/dryad.pk0p2ngsn
title: Flowering phenology under climate warming

description: Owing to global climate warming, biological processes will be disrupted,
 causing phenological mismatches and mistimings. In Japan's cool
 temperate region of Hokkaido Island, warmer and shorter winters will
 affect plant flowering phenology. Rapid change in the flowering phenology
 led to the hypothesis that shorter winters would result in earlier
 flowering. The flowering phenology of 611 species was recorded for nine
 years (2013–2021), and 9 species were selected for analysis. The
 accumulated degree hour, which is the total value of the hourly aerial
 temperature above zero, was calculated as the effective aerial temperature
 for plant flowering phenology. The results indicated that winters are
 getting shorter, and the first flowering day of two plant species occurred
 earlier. However, the accumulated degree hours for the plant species have
 not significantly changed over the nine years. If climate warming
 continues, it will have diverse, complex, and unpredictable effects on
 various individual organisms and biological relationships among species.
 Detailed studies are needed to link climate change predictions to the
 predicted degree of mismatch in species interactions and networks.
description: # Flowering phenology under climate warming ### Description of the data
 and file structure Raw data as three R source files and two CSV files.
 Climate data (1961–2021) were collected from the Japan Meteorological
 Agency of Asahikawa (JMA, https://www.data.jma.go.jp/obd/stats/etrn/)
 using the R packages ‘polite’ and ‘XML.’ Thus, data was primarily produced
 as R source file and saved as 'dataframe' object. I will not
 publish the scraping scripts to avoid too-much-easy access to the JMA. All
 of the CSV files are raw data, but produced through the
 'dataframe' above, and not directly used in the R analysis. ##
 How to run the analysis R script for analysis is included. You need the
 font "Osaka" to draw graphs. If you do not want to use
 "Osaka", you can change par(family="Osaka") into
 another font. Please place the three source files at your proper directory
 for R analysis. Files seppen.R and rec.snow.long2021.R are the source
 files and used in R script file "ESJ69\_PB\_eng.v2.eng.R". And
 you should change the file path in the script file. e.g., you should
 change the three lines load(file="/rec.snow.long2021.R") ,
 seppen.R, and SList.ssp.sel1.R. You can check them using the function
 'ls()' ## Details on source files The unit of temperature is
 Celsius. Day of the year is represented as 'yday'. The object
 'rec.snow.long2021' contains snowfall and snow depth (cm) day by
 day 1961-2021. The values "snow" and "snow.max" denote
 snowfall and snow depth, respectively. The object "kousetu" and
 "sekisetu2" are generated in the R script (line 54 and line 67)
 and denotes monthly total of snowfall and monthly maximum snowfall per
 year (cm), respectively. However, the CSV files generated from these
 objects are not directly used in the analysis. Names of the species and
 the species number are column one and five, respectively. Species names
 are abbreviated as in my NJB article (see its DOI in my Dryad page.) The
 object 'SList.ssp.sel1' contains data on flowering day (day of
 the year). Flowering day and early.day.of.flower are pooled as one value.
 All the SITE were pooled and analysed. The column 'kaikabi'
 denotes 'yday' of the first flowering and is used in Fig 4a of
 my NJB article. The column 'kaika.sekisan0' is important and
 used in Fig 4b of my NJB article. The values of accumulated degree hour
 (ADH) above zero degrees in my article. The column
 'kaika.sekisan' is the value of accumulated degree hour (ADH)
 above five degrees and not directly used. The column
 'mean.sekisan' and ''mean.sekisan0'' is the
 value of accumulated degree day (ADD) above five and zero degrees,
 although not directly used. ADD is calculated using calculated daily mean
 temperature. The column "sekisetu.zero" is calculated yday of
 snowmelt (zero snow depth day) , referred from the object
 "seppen," and used in Fig 4c of my NJB article. Columns of
 "line..." just represent line types in the graphs according to
 p-value of the regression (see Figure legend of NJB article). ##
 Sharing/Access information Data can be used under CC0