DOI: 10.5063/aa/dpennington.100.1
title: IPCC Climate Change Data: CSIRO A2a Model: 2050 Mean Temperature

description: The CSIRO Atmospheric Research Mark 2b climate model (Hirst et al., 1996, 1999) has recently been used for a number of more sophisticated climate change simulations. These start from 1880 to avoid the "cold start problem". This version of the CSIRO model includes the Gent-McWilliams mixing scheme in the ocean and shows greatly reduced climate drift relative to earlier versions (e.g. Dix and Hunt, 1998). The drift in global mean surface temperature in the new control run is about -0.02 degrees C/century. Note that the model uses flux correction. The model atmosphere has 9 levels in the vertical and horizontal resolution of spectral R21 (approximately 5.6 by 3.2 degrees). The ocean model has the same horizontal resolution with 21 levels. The equilibrium sensitivity to doubled CO2 of a mixed layer ocean version of the model is 4.3 degrees. This is at the high end of the range of model sensitivities (e.g. IPCC 1995, Table 6.3). In the basic greenhouse gas experiment the model combines the effect of all radiatively active trace gases into an "equivalent" CO2 concentration. Observed concentrations are used from 1880 to 1990 and the IS92a projections into the future. This gives close to a 1%/year compounding increase of equivalent CO2. Another model experiment includes the negative radiative forcing from atmospheric sulphate aerosol. The direct aerosol forcing is included via a perturbation of the surface albedo, similarly to the Hadley Centre experiments described by Mitchell et al (1995) and Mitchell and Johns (1997) . The sulphate concentrations are the same as used in the Hadley Centre experiments. However the chosen aerosol optical properties are different, giving a present day forcing due to anthropogenic sulphate of about -0.4 W/m^2. This can be compared to the 1880-1990 greenhouse gas forcing of about 2 W/m^2. The magnitude of the 20th century warming in the model including aerosol matches the observed reasonably well. However there are a number of forcings missing from the model, including solar variability, sulphate indirect effect and the effect of soot. The climate sensitivity of CSIRO-Mk2 is about 4.3 degrees C (Watterson et al.,1997). For the A2 emissions scenario the main emphasis is on a strengthening of regional and local culture, with a return to family values in many regions. The A2 world consolidates into a series of roughly continental economic regions, emphasizing local cultural roots. In some regions, increased religious participation leads many to reject a materialist path and to focus attention on contributing to the local community. Elsewhere, the trend is towards increased investment in education and science and growth in economic productivity. Social and political structures diversify, with some regions moving towards stronger welfare systems and reduced income inequality, while others move towards "lean" government. Environmental concerns are relatively weak, although some attention is paid to bringing local pollution under control and maintaining local environmental amenities. The A2 world sees more international tensions and less cooperation than in A1 or B1. People, ideas and capital are less mobile so that technology diffuses slowly. International disparities in productivity, and hence income per capita, are maintained or increased. With the emphasis on family and community life, fertility rates decline only slowly, although they vary among regions. Hence, this scenario family has high population growth (to 15 billion by 2100) with comparatively low incomes per capita relative to the A1 and B1 worlds, at US$7,200 in 2050 and US$16,000 in 2100.Technological change is rapid in some regions and slow in others as industry adjusts to local resource endowments, culture, and education levels. Regions with abundant energy and mineral resources evolve more resource intensive economies, while those poor in resources place very high priority on minimizing import dependence through technological innovation to improve resource efficiency and make use of substitute inputs. The fuel mix in different regions is determined primarily by resource availability. And divisions among regions persist in terms of their mix of technologies, with high-income but resource-poor regions shifting toward advanced post fossil technologies (renewables in regions of large land availability, nuclear in densely populated, resource poor regions) and low-income resource-rich regions generally relying on older fossil technologies.With substantial food requirements, agricultural productivity is one of the main focus areas for innovation and RD efforts in this future. Initially high levels of soil erosion and water pollution are eventually eased through the local development of more sustainable high-yield agriculture.Although attention is given to potential local and regional environmental damage, it is not uniform across regions. For example, sulfur and particulate emissions are reduced in Asia due to impacts on human health and agricultural production but increase in Africa as a result of the intensified exploitation of coal and other mineral resources. The A2 world sees high energy and carbon intensity, and correspondingly high GHG emissions. Its CO2 emissions are the highest of all four scenario families. Data are available for the following periods: 1961-1990, 2010-2039; 2040-2069; and 2090-2099 Mean monthly and change fields.