DOI: 10.5061/dryad.qbzkh18s7
title: Recent community warming of moths in Finland is driven by extinction in the north and colonisation in the south

description: As the climate warms, species are shifting their ranges to match their
 climatic niches, leading to "thermophilisation" of ecological
 communities. We currently have little understanding of the
 population-level processes driving this community-level warming,
 particularly at rapidly warming high latitudes. Using 30 years of
 high-resolution moth monitoring data across a 1,200 km latitudinal
 gradient in Finland, we found that higher latitude communities are
 experiencing more rapid thermophilisation. We attribute this spatial
 variation to community-wide colonisation-extinction dynamics, both for the
 full community and for different thermal affinity groups. Our findings
 reveal that latitudinal variation in the pathways underpinning
 thermophilisation is the net outcome of opposite forces: In the north,
 community warming is driven by the extinction of cold-affiliated species,
 while in the south, it is driven by high colonisation rates of
 warm-affiliated species. Thus, we show how species' thermal
 affinities influence community reorganisation and highlight the elevated
 extinction risk among cold-affiliated species.
description: Author: Emilie E. Ellis Contact:
 [emilie.ellis95@gmail.com](mailto:emilie.ellis95@gmail.com) Date: June
 2025 Summary: Here we have the core analysis for the manuscript ‘Recent
 community warming of moths in Finland is driven by extinction in the north
 and colonisation in the south’. There are 2 scripts included, script 1
 (‘1_overall_script_final.R) is the core script that runs through every
 step of the analysis. A separate script, 2_MLE_thermal_groups.R is the
 core analysis of the manuscript but it takes about 3 days to run.  The
 following folder structure should be be followed:
 Ellis_et_al_full_analysis should contain two folders: dataframes and
 scripts. 1\. Data frames: 
 **‘Ellis_et_al_full_analysis/data_frames_organised/‘** will contains the
 following files: 1\)
 Ellis_et_al_full_analysis/data_frames_organised/**1_STI_data_cleaned.csv**
 *Description:* The mean species temperature index per species. This also
 contains the correct synonyms for each moth species to match the moth data
 (see 2 below).  Data structure: * new_REC_names: Species synonym to match
 the names in our clean moth data * Species: Species name (original) *
 manntmp.mean: the mean temperature of a species’ European distribution
 (species temperature index STI) 2\)
 Ellis_et_al_full_analysis/data_frames_organised/**2_cleaned_moth_data.csv** *Description:* cleaned raw data that was used for analysis: i) we confined our data to sites for which temporal change can be reliably established, we chose sites with at least 10 years of data; and ii) to derive a comparable baseline between sites, we excluded any sites that started data collection later than 2005. These filtering processes resulted in 728 species in 62 sites (see script 2 ‘2_cleaning_raw_data.R’. Data structure: * SiteID: the individual site identifiers.  * Species: Moth species name * Year: The year the sample was collected (aggregated of weekly samples during the summer of each year) * Obs: species specific abundance in each site and year.  3\) Ellis_et_al_full_analysis/data_frames_organised/**3_abiotic_meta_data.csv** *Description: * abiotic data for each site. Data structure * SiteID: the individual site identifiers.  * BZ: bioclimate zone (three levels: SB south boreal, MB middle boreal and NB north boreal, see Figure S1 in the MS).  * latitude_wgs_84:  latitude **(EPSG:3067)**  projected coordinate system in Finland. * longitude_wgs_84 : longitude **(EPSG:3067)**  projected coordinate system in Finland. * lat: latitude converted from Finnish projects to geographic coordinates in decimal degrees **WGS84** * long: longitude converted from Finnish projects to geographic coordinates in decimal degrees **WGS84** 4\) Ellis_et_al_full_analysis/data_frames_organised/**4_BioclimaticZonesFinland** *Description: * this is a folder containing the files needed to read a shape file in R to create a map of Finland (see script Ellis_et_al_full_analysis/scripts/4_generate_Finland_outline_map.R) 5\) Ellis_et_al_full_analysis/data_frames_organised/**5_MLE_thermal_group_outputs** *Description: * this is a folder containing the 12 outputs from script 2_MLE_thermal_groups.R which are the model summaries for each group vs latitude, abundance and species pools (e.g. each thermal group: cold adapted (cold), cold tolerant (coldish) , warm tolerant  (warm) and warm adapted (hot) each tested separately against explanatory variables.  e.g. cold_abundance is the MLE output (model summary) testing how colonisation and extinction rtes of cold adapted species are explained by abundance of insects.  2\. Scripts:  **‘Ellis_et_al_full_analysis/scripts/‘** will contains the following files: 1\) 1_overall_script.R:  Description: This script is the main script that runs all analysis of the manuscript (except final maximum likelihood estimates (in the other script).  Output: Full analysis and figures contained in this manuscript . 8\)  8_MLE_thermal_groups.R: Description: Second part of the main analysis. Using maximum likelihood approaches to estimate the effects latitude, site abundance and available species pools drive extinction-colonisation dynamics (one value per site). This script takes a long time to run (72 hours). Outputs: a new folder called data_frames_organised/10_MLE_thermal_group_outputs/ with the following outputs: * cold_latitude.RDS * coldish_latitude.RDS * warm_latitude.RDS * hot_latitude.RDS * cold_abundance.RDS * coldish_abundance.RDS * warm_abundance.RDS * hot_abundance.RDS * cold_pool.RDS * coldish_pool.RDS * warm_pool.RDS * hot_pool.RDS