DOI: 10.5061/dryad.sp4t0
title: Data from: Controls on niche stability in geologic time Congruent responses to biotic and abiotic environmental changes among Cincinnatian (Late Ordovician) marine invertebrates

description: The set of environmental conditions under which a taxon can survive and
 maintain viable populations, known as the ecological niche, is a
 fundamental determinant of a taxon's distribution. Because of the
 central importance of ecological niches, they have been assumed to remain
 relatively stable during intervals of morphological stasis. However, the
 assumption of niche stability has rarely been tested directly with fossil
 data spanning multiple temporal intervals. Thus, the conditions under
 which this assumption is likely to be accurate are not well understood. In
 this study, we use ecological niche modeling (ENM) to reconstruct the
 ecological niche for 11 genera of marine benthos (crinoids, trilobites,
 molluscs, bryozoans, and corals) from the Type Cincinnatian Series (Late
 Ordovician, Katian Stage) across nine temporal intervals spanning
 approximately three million years. This interval includes both abiotic
 environmental change (gradual sea-level fall) and biotic change (rapid
 pulses of the Richmondian Invasion), thus allowing the relative effect of
 different environmental perturbations to be constrained. A previous
 symmetrical analysis of niche stability of brachiopod species recovered an
 increase in niche evolution following the Richmondian Invasion. Herein we
 test the generality of the brachiopod pattern within the community. Niche
 stability was evaluated in geographic space, ecological space, and niche
 parameter space. Niche stability varied through time; during the
 Pre-Invasion interval, taxa exhibited niche stability during gradual
 shallowing of sea level in the basin, whereas niche evolution became more
 common during the Richmondian Invasion. Taxa adjusted to the increased
 competition by altering aspects of their niche. Notably, surviving taxa
 contracted their niche into a subset of their previous niche parameters.
 This represents an adaptive response to increased competition for
 resources with the newly established invader taxa, and it was employed
 most successfully by generalist taxa. Patterns of niche evolution were
 congruent between clades, among feeding styles, and across taxonomic
 levels.
description: Supplemental
 TextCalculation of percent
 geographic overlap between models.Supplemental Figure
 1Maxent output example
 for Flexicalymene for the first time-slice of the C5: (A) Original
 Distribution Model; (B) Forward Projection Distribution Model generated by
 projecting the niche modeled developed for the first time-slice onto the
 environmental parameters of second time-slice; (C) Omission and Predicted
 Area; (D) Sensitivity vs. 1-Specificity including AUC values; (E)
 Jackknife of regularized training gain; (F) Jackknife of test gain; (G)
 Response curves for each variable.SupplementalFigure1_MaxentOutput.pdfSupplemental Table 2Occurrence data by time-slice.SupplementalTable2_OccurrenceData.pdfSupplemental Table 1List of localities from which occurrence data were collected.SupplementalTable1_CollectingLocalities_HB_Revised.pdfSupplemental Table 3Environmental Parameters (Modified from Malizia & Stigall, 2011).SupplementalTable3_EnvironmentalCoding.pdfSupplemental Table 4Area Under the Curve (AUC) values for GARP and Maxent ModelsSupplementalTable4_ModelAUCvalues.pdfSupplemental Table 5Weighted percent of geographic overlap between models generated by GARP and Maxent per time slice.SupplementalTable5_MaxentGARPoverlapALS.pdfSupplemental Table 6Overlap calculations for percent geographic overlap between Maxent models. The weighting scheme and percent overlap calculations are described in Supplemental Text.SupplementalTable6_Geographicoverlap.pdfSupplemental Table 7ENMtools I and D values relative to the 95% confidence interval. Both of these metrics are measured from 0 (complete dissimilarity) to 1 (identity). I/D values that fall within the 95% C.I. (“in”) indicate models that are no more/less similar than random and are interpreted as evidence of niche conservatism. I/D values that fall above the 95% C.I. (“out, high”) and indicate statistical niche conservatism. I/D values that fall below the 95% C.I. (“out, low”) are interpreted as evidence of niche evolution.SupplementalTable7_IDvalues.pdfSupplemental Table 8Percent contribution per environmental variable for each Maxent model.SupplementalTable8_EnvPercentCont.pdfSupplemental Appendix 1List of references for localities in Supplemental Tables 1 and 2Supplemental_Appendix1references_HB_Revised.pdfSupplemental Appendix 2Legend for models and analyses in Supplemental Appendices 3 and 4.SupplementalAppendix2_Legend.pdfSupplemental Appendix 3Reclassified GARP models. Each figure shows the reclassified GARP models for each genus in each time-slice of each sequence. Note that GARP values indicate suitability and range from 0 to 100. See Supplemental Appendix 2 for explanation of the color values.SupplementalAppendix3_GARPoutput.pdfSupplemental Appendix 4Original Maxent Models, Reclassified Maxent Models, and Geographic overlap analyses. Each figure shows the original Maxent model outputs in the left column, and the reclassification of that model to the right. The far right images are the final reclassified overlap analysis of the forward projected model and the original model of the next consecutive time slice. Model output values range from 0.0 to 1.0 and indicate probability. Final overlap calculation values indicate agreement, and range from 1 to 4. See Supplemental Appendix 2 for explanation of symbology.SupplementalAppendix4_Maxent Models.pdf