DOI: 10.5061/dryad.8gtht770m
title: Designing conservation networks to ensure connectivity in a changing climate: application to Spanish forests

description: Aim: Assess the potential effects of climate change on different forest
 habitats, and outline a climate-wise conservation network to sustain
 forest connectivity under current and future climates. Location: Mainland
 Spain. Time period: Current and future (2071-2100). Major taxa studied:
 Forest species associated with different vegetation types and dispersal
 abilities. Methods: We fitted a Random Forest model to predict the
 distribution of six vegetation types under current and four future climate
 scenarios. We then assessed forest availability and connectivity for each
 climate scenario and vegetation type. To define the conservation network
 we identified the key habitat patches and corridors for dynamic
 connectivity using multi-temporal habitat availability indices. Finally,
 we analyzed how much of this conservation network is expected to change
 due to climate shifts and how this aligns with existing protected areas.
 Results: Forests across all vegetation types exhibited substantial
 northward, eastward, and upward shifts. Forests adapted to cold or wet
 conditions (e.g., deciduous, mountain conifers, and high-mountain
 vegetation) declined in area and connectivity. Warm- and dry-adapted
 forests (e.g., sclerophyllous, subsclerophyllous, and hyperxerophilous
 vegetation) increased their ranges and connectivity. The increase in
 subsclerophyllous area tripled in connectivity gain, whereas other
 vegetation increased area and connectivity at similar rates (differences
 below 15%). 53% of the proposed conservation network shifted vegetation
 types. Current protected areas covered 45% of the conservation patches
 across Spain but less than 7% within the deciduous vegetation type. Main
 conclusions: Projected shifts highlight the need for dynamic connectivity
 analyses to guide effective conservation under changing climates. Forest
 types exhibited distinct trends, underscoring the need for tailored
 strategies for each type. The proposed conservation network provides
 guidance for a proactive enhancement of forest species resilience, and
 serve as reference for other countries with similar conservation targets,
 such as the international EU Restoration Law and Biodiversity Strategy.
description: # Designing conservation networks to ensure connectivity in a changing
 climate: application to Spanish forests Dataset DOI:
 [10.5061/dryad.8gtht770m](10.5061/dryad.8gtht770m) ## Description of the
 data and file structure This dataset consists of thematic maps designed to
 guide the prioritization of target locations for conservation and
 restoration management in peninsular Spain and the R scripts to obtain
 them. The maps are provided under current (1990-2010) and 4 future
 (2071-2100) climate scenarios and include: 1\. Distribution of main
 vegetation types: distribution of (1) high-mountain vegetation. (2)
 deciduous, (3) sclerophyllous, (4) hiperxerophilous, (5)subsclerophyllous,
 and (6)mountain conifers 2\. Connectivity map: normalized importance of
 forests and corridors as connectivity providers for forest species with
 varying median dispersal capacities (1, 3, 5, 10, and 30 km).
 Additionally, an overall conservation network averaging the importance
 across dispersal distances and current and future connectivity scenarios.
 CRS: WGS84 / UTM Zone 30N (EPSG:32630) ### Files and variables #### File:
 connectivity_current.zip **Description:** Normalized importance of forests
 and corridors as connectivity providers for forest species with varying
 median dispersal capacities (1, 3, 5, 10, and 30 km) under current
 (1990-2010) climate conditions. #### File:
 connectivity_IPSL_CM6A_LR_2070_SSP126.zip **Description:** Normalized
 importance of forests and corridors as connectivity providers for forest
 species with varying median dispersal capacities (1, 3, 5, 10, and 30
 km) under future (2070-2100) optimistic A (IPSL_CM6A_LR_2070_SSP126)
 climate conditions #### File: connectivity_MRI_ESM2_0_2070_SSP126.zip
 **Description:** Normalized importance of forests and corridors as
 connectivity providers for forest species with varying median dispersal
 capacities (1, 3, 5, 10, and 30 km) under future (2070-2100) optimistic B
 (MRI_ESM2_0_2070_SSP126) climate conditions #### File:
 connectivity_IPSL_CM6A_LR_2070_SSP585.zip **Description:** Normalized
 importance of forests and corridors as connectivity providers for forest
 species with varying median dispersal capacities (1, 3, 5, 10, and 30
 km) under future (2070-2100) pessimistic A (IPSL_CM6A_LR_2070_SSP585)
 climate conditions #### File: connectivity_MRI_ESM2_0_2070_SSP585.zip
 **Description:** Normalized importance of forests and corridors as
 connectivity providers for forest species with varying median dispersal
 capacities (1, 3, 5, 10, and 30 km) under future (2070-2100) pessimistic B
 (MRI_ESM2_0_2070_SSP585) climate conditions #### File:
 overall_connectivity.tif **Description:** Averaged normalized importance
 of forests and corridors as connectivity providers for forest species with
 varying median dispersal capacities (1, 3, 5, 10, and 30 km) under current
 (1990-2010) climate and future (2070-2100) conditions. #### File:
 veg_types_current.tif **Description:** Distribution of main vegetation
 types: distribution of (1) high-mountain vegetation. (2) deciduous, (3)
 sclerophyllous, (4) hiperxerophilous, (5)subsclerophyllous, and
 (6)mountain conifers under current (1990-2010) climate conditions. ####
 File: veg_types_IPSL_CM6A_LR_2070_SSP126.tif **Description:** Distribution
 of main vegetation types: distribution of (1) high-mountain vegetation.
 (2) deciduous, (3) sclerophyllous, (4) hiperxerophilous,
 (5)subsclerophyllous, and (6)mountain conifers under future (2070-2100)
 optimistic A (IPSL_CM6A_LR_2070_SSP126) climate conditions. #### File:
 veg_types_MRI_ESM2_0_2070_SSP126.tif **Description:** Distribution of main
 vegetation types: distribution of (1) high-mountain vegetation. (2)
 deciduous, (3) sclerophyllous, (4) hiperxerophilous, (5)subsclerophyllous,
 and (6)mountain conifers under future (2070-2100) optimistic B
 (MRI_ESM2_0_2070_SSP126) climate conditions. #### File:
 veg_types_IPSL_CM6A_LR_2070_SSP585.tif **Description:** Distribution of
 main vegetation types: distribution of (1) high-mountain vegetation. (2)
 deciduous, (3) sclerophyllous, (4) hiperxerophilous, (5)subsclerophyllous,
 and (6)mountain conifers under future (2070-2100) pessimistic A
 (IPSL_CM6A_LR_2070_SSP585) climate conditions. #### File:
 veg_types_MRI_ESM2_0_2070_SSP585.tif **Description:** Distribution of main
 vegetation types: distribution of (1) high-mountain vegetation. (2)
 deciduous, (3) sclerophyllous, (4) hiperxerophilous, (5)subsclerophyllous,
 and (6)mountain conifers under future (2070-2100) pessimistic B
 (MRI_ESM2_0_2070_SSP585) climate conditions. ## Scripts #### File:
 00_Vegetation_tipes_RandomForest_Models.R **Description:** R script
 to model the distribution of the different vegetation types. #### File:
 01_create_nodes.R **Description:** R script to delimitate habitat patches
 #### File: 02_corridors_effective_distance.R **Description:** R script to
 calculate effective distance of corridors. #### File:
 03_corridors_delineation.R **Description:** R script to delineate
 corridors #### File: 04_patches_importance.R **Description:** R script to
 prioritize habitat patches #### File: 05_links_importance.R
 **Description:** R script to prioritize corridors ## Code/software Scripts
 are available in files 00_Vegetation_tipes_RandomForest_Models.R,
 01_create_nodes.R, 02_corridors_effective_distance.R,
 03_corridors_delineation.R, 04_patches_importance.R, 05_links_importance.R
 **R versions 4.3.2** **Packages**: Makurhini gdistance randomForest terra
 raster sf parallel future furrr ## Sharing/Access information Links to
 other publicly accessible locations of the data: *
 [https://zenodo.org/records/14603023](https://zenodo.org/records/14603023)
 Data was derived from the following sources: * [Climate data can be
 accessed from its source repository](https://chelsa-climate.org/) . * [The
 Digital Elevation Model can be downloaded from the Copernicus Land Cover
 Service](https://land.copernicus.eu/en/products/corine-land-cover/clc2018). * [The vegetation type points are available from the Forest Map of Spain 1:200,000](https://www.miteco.gob.es/es/biodiversidad/servicios/banco-datos-naturaleza/informacion-disponible/mfe200.html).