DOI: 10.5061/dryad.sqv9s4nd7
title: Data and code from: Environmental drivers of metapopulation dynamics throughout the full annual cycle in a declining Arctic-nesting migratory herbivore

description: Assessing the impacts of changing environmental conditions on animal
 species requires a thorough understanding of population dynamics, which
 can be difficult to estimate when animals aggregate into spatially
 discrete subpopulations. We used 39 years of fecundity, capture-recapture,
 and abundance data in an integrated metapopulation model to study
 environmental drivers of demography in a declining migratory bird, the
 Greenland white-fronted goose (Anser albifrons flavirostris). We found
 that low fecundity due to earlier spring vegetation phenology on staging
 areas and increased snow on breeding areas explained metapopulation
 decline, though the strength of these effects varied by subpopulation.
 Differential immigration and emigration rates affected local wintering
 abundance trends, highlighting the importance of quantifying
 subpopulation-metapopulation dynamics for understanding fragmented animal
 populations. We provide a framework for extending commonly used integrated
 population models to a metapopulation framework for testing novel
 ecological hypotheses about how changing environmental conditions within
 and among subpopulations can drive changes in animal abundance.
description: # Data and code from: Environmental drivers of metapopulation dynamics
 throughout the full annual cycle in a declining Arctic-nesting migratory
 herbivore Data DOI:
 [https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.sqv9s4nd7](https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.sqv9s4nd7)\ Code DOI: [https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14284298](https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14284298) Data users are encouraged to contact the corresponding author with questions about this data package or to seek potential collaborations using these data. --- ### Authors Alexander R. Schindler\ Department of Biology, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK, Canada Anthony D. Fox\ Department of Ecoscience, Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark Alyn J. Walsh\ National Parks and Wildlife Service, Dublin, Ireland Larry R. Griffin\ Wildfowl & Wetlands Trust, Gloucester, UK\ ECO-LG Limitied, Dumfries, UK Seán B. A. Kelly\ National Parks and Wildlife Service, Dublin, Ireland Mitch D. Weegman\ Department of Biology, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK, Canada --- ### Description Model code and associated data files to estimate survival, fecundity, immigration, emigration, abundance, and abundance trends for four Greenland white-fronted goose (*Anser albifrons flavirostris*) wintering subpopulation groups. See manuscript for additional context. --- ### R code files * `00_nimble_restart_functions.R`: functions used in `IMM.R` to continue model run from a new session (for improving model convergence) * `01_IMM.R`:Integrated Metapopulation Model to estimate demography and associated environmental drivers of Greenland white-fronted geese * `02_PPC_count_fec.R`: Posterior predictive checks for population and fecundity sub-models in the Integrated Metapopulation Model * `03_PPC_multistate.R`: Posterior predictive checks for multistate sub-models in the Integrated Metapopulation Model * `04_plot_demograhpic_estimates.R`: Plotting Greenland white-fronted goose demographic estimates from the Integrated Metapopulation Model * `05_plot_env_covariate_predictions.R`: Prediction plots for the effects of weather on Greenland white-fronted goose fecundity * `06_env_covariate_violin_plots.R`: Violin plots for the effects of environmental conditions and hunting on Greenland white-fronted goose demography * `07_calculate_imm_rates.R`: Calculate subpopulation-level immigration rates from the integrated metapopulation model results * `08_tLTRE.R`: Transient life table response experiments to calculate contributions of demographic rates to realised population growth rates * `09_plot_contr_pop_growth.R`: Plotting tLTRE results of contributions of demographic rates to realised population growth rates * `10_source_sink_pop_proj_matrix.R`: Post-hoc population projection matrices to evaluate source-sink dynamics among subpopulations * `11_plotting_pop_matrix_lambdas.R`: Violin plots of projected subpopulation growth rates from post-hoc population projection matrices ### Data files * `popcount_matrix.csv`: Annual total counts (adults + juveniles) of female Greenland white-fronted geese in each wintering subpopulation group * rows: subpopulation group * columns: year (corresponds to the start of winter, i.e., 1983 = winter of 1983/1984) * *note*: values are 1/2 total counts to approximate number of females * `adult_matrix.csv`: Annual counts of female adult Greenland white-fronted geese in each wintering subpopulation group * rows: subpopulation group * columns: year (corresponds to the start of winter, i.e., 1983 = December 1983 - April 1984) * *note*: values are 1/2 total counts to approximate number of females * `juvenile_long.csv`: Annual counts of female juvenile Greenland white-fronted geese in each wintering subpopulation group * `subpop`: numeric identifier for subpopulation group (1 = Wexford, 2 = Islay, 3 = Loch Ken, 4 = Elsewhere) * `year`: numeric identifier for year (i.e., 1 = winter 1983/1984) * `count_j_f`: count of juvenile Greenland white-fronted geese * *note*: values are 1/2 total counts to approximate number of females * `multistate_capture_history.csv`: Multistate capture histoties for all Greenland white-fronted geese captured during the study * rows: individual Greenland white-fronted goose capture histories * columns: year (i.e., 1983_1984 = December 1983 - April 1984) * states: 1 = juvenile at Wexford, 2 = juvenile at Islay, 3 = juvenile at Loch Ken, 4 = juvenile elsewhere (unobserved), 5 = adult at Wexford, 6 = adult at Islay, 7 = adult at Loch Ken, 8 = adult Elsewhere * `growing_degree_days_winter.csv`: Growing degree days on wintering areas (i.e., cumulative growing degree units [degrees C] from 1 January through day geese departed for spring migration) for each wintering subpopulation group and year * rows: subpopulation group * columns: year (corresponds to day geese departed for spring migration) * `growing_degree_days_spring_staging.csv`: Growing degree days on spring staging areas (i.e., cumulative growing degree units [degrees C] from 1 January through day geese arrived) for each wintering subpopulation group and year * rows: subpopulation group * columns: year (corresponds to day geese arrived) * `growing_degree_days_breeding.csv`: Growing degree days on breeding areas (i.e., cumulative growing degree units [degrees C] from 1 January through day geese arrived) for each wintering subpopulation group and year * rows: subpopulation group * columns: year (corresponds to day geese arrived) * `snowfall.csv`: Cumulative snowfall (in mm) on breeding areas from the start of winter until the day geese arrived * rows: subpopulation group * columns: year (corresponds to day geese arrived) * `storm_days.csv`: Cumulative number of severe storms occurring within 7 days before or after departures from wintering, spring staging, breeding and autumn staging areas on corresponding migration pathways * rows: subpopulation group * coumns: year (corresponds to year of spring and subsequent autumn migrations)