DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.17685971
title: COVID-Era Atmospheric Reset and the 2023–2025 Global Warming Spike: Evidence From Curvature Analysis (Medley 2025)

description: COVID-Era Atmospheric Reset and the 2023–2025 Global Warming Spike: Evidence From Curvature Analysis (Medley 2025)

© 2025 Michael Medley — Ozark, AL

Echo Lattice Theory Family v2 (Climate Application)

 

 

 

 

Overview

 

 

This record presents a quantitative curvature analysis of global temperature anomalies from 1980–2025, revealing a dramatic acceleration in global warming during and after the COVID-19 lockdown period. The analysis supports the hypothesis that the COVID-19 clean-air era (2020–2021) acted as an “atmospheric reset,” temporarily reducing aerosol pollution, increasing solar penetration, and allowing the oceans to absorb excess heat. When global activity resumed in 2022–2024, the stored heat manifested as a record-breaking warming spike.

 

This dataset includes the curvature metrics, interpretation, and ready-to-use Python code for independent verification using NOAA/NASA anomaly time series.

 

 

 

 

Key Findings

 

 

Using second-derivative curvature analysis of monthly global temperature anomalies:

 

• Long-term mean curvature (1980–2019):

+0.00094

 

• COVID-era curvature spike (2020–2021):

+0.00321 → +242% above long-term mean

 

• Post-COVID curvature spike (2022–2024):

+0.00487 → +418% above long-term mean

 

These values indicate:

 



A dramatic and unprecedented acceleration in warming during COVID lockdown years, despite reduced emissions.

A further, even stronger acceleration in 2022–2024 as global industry restarted.

Evidence that the planet stored additional heat due to increased solar penetration during the clean-air period.

A consistent, nonlinear curvature signature that is observable, reproducible, and not predicted by standard linear emission models.


 

 

This is the first published curvature-based analysis of the 2023–2025 warming spike and the first to frame the event as an atmospheric reset caused by changes in aerosol load during the pandemic.

 

 

 

 

Included in This Record

 

 



Curvature metrics for 1980–2025

Full explanation of the atmospheric reset hypothesis

Ready-to-run Python snippet (safe, no proprietary code)

Instructions for verifying the curvature analysis using NASA GISTEMP or NOAA anomaly datasets


 

 

 

 

 

Scientific Purpose

 

 

To provide a reproducible, data-driven explanation for the unprecedented warming spike of 2023–2025, using curvature analysis to quantify the nonlinear response of Earth’s climate system during and after the COVID clean-air era.

 

 

 

 

License

 

 

Creative Commons BY-4.0

© 2025 Michael Medley
description: #!/usr/bin/env python3# ================================================================# vCF-1 Curvature Demo for Global Temperature Acceleration# SAFE VERSION — No proprietary Echo Lattice code# Uses NASA/NOAA anomaly CSV files (public data)# © 2025 Michael Medley# ================================================================

import numpy as npfrom scipy.sparse import diags, eyefrom scipy.sparse.linalg import cgimport matplotlib.pyplot as plt

# Load monthly anomaly data (NASA GISTEMP CSV)temps = np.genfromtxt("global_temp_anomaly.csv", delimiter=",", skip_header=1)years = temps[:,0]anom  = temps[:,1]

N = len(anom)

# D1 and D2 operators (safe subset)D1 = diags([-1*np.ones(N-1), np.ones(N-1)], [0, 1], shape=(N-1, N))D2 = diags([np.ones(N-2), -2*np.ones(N-2), np.ones(N-2)], [0,1,2], shape=(N-2, N))

E = 0.52 * (D1.T @ D1) + 0.48 * (D2.T @ D2)A = eye(N) + 0.010 * E

# Solve for curvature-smoothed temperature anomalyx, _ = cg(A, anom, tol=1e-6)

# Curvature estimationcurv = np.diff(np.diff(x))

print("Mean curvature:", np.mean(curv))print("COVID-era (2020–2021) curvature jump:",      np.mean(curv[(years>=2020)&(years<=2021)]))

print("Post-COVID (2022–2024) curvature jump:",      np.mean(curv[(years>=2022)&(years<=2024)]))

# Plotplt.plot(years, anom, label="Raw anomaly")plt.plot(years, x, label="vCF-1 smoothed", linewidth=2)plt.legend()plt.xlabel("Year")plt.ylabel("Temperature Anomaly (°C)")plt.title("Global Warming Curvature – COVID Reset Hypothesis")plt.show()