DOI: 10.5061/dryad.pnvx0k6pt
title: Negative temporal autocorrelation in mast seeding dynamics positively influences both the long and short-term dynamics of a wild boar population

description: Temporal autocorrelation in environmental conditions influences population
 dynamics through its effects on vital rates. However, a comprehensive
 understanding of how and to what extent temporal autocorrelation shapes
 population dynamics is still lacking because most empirical studies have
 unrealistically assumed that environmental conditions are temporally
 independent. Mast seeding is a biological event characterized by
 highly fluctuating and synchronized seed production at the tree population
 scale, as well as a marked negative temporal autocorrelation. In the
 current context of global change, mast seeding events are expected to
 become more frequent, leading to strengthened negative temporal
 autocorrelations and thereby amplified cyclicality in mast seeding
 dynamics with cycles of length 2 years. Theory predicts that
 population growth rates are maximized when the environmental cyclicality
 of consumer resources and their generation times are closely
 matched. To test this prediction, we took advantage of the
 long-term monitoring of a wild boar population, a widespread seed consumer
 species characterized by a short generation time (ca. 2 years).
 As expected, simulations indicated that its stochastic
 population growth rate increased as mast seeding dynamics became
 more negatively autocorrelated. Our findings demonstrate
 that accounting for temporal autocorrelations
 in environmental conditions relative to generation
 time of the focal population is required, especially under global
 warming where the cyclicality in resource dynamics is likely to change.
description: From 1983 to 2016, a
 capture-mark-recapture-recovery (CMRR) program has been running on a wild
 boar population located in the North of France (i.e. 11,000 ha forest of
 Châteauvillain-Arc-en-Barrois). Demographic data were collected annually
 during two specific periods: the capture period, occurring from March to
 September, and the hunting period, occurring from October to February.
 Thus, it allowed us to obtain accurate estimates of all vital rates of the
 studied wild boar population.  More specifically, alive females
 were trapped from March to September, individually marked (or identified
 for females already marked) and weighed (in kg) before being released.
 Additionally, information on the
 reproductive status of females shot during the hunting season was
 recorded. To do so, hunting bags were analyzed from October to February.
 Body mass (in kg), reproductive status, which is defined as reproductive
 or not based on the presence of fetuses in the uterus or of Graafian
 follicles and/or <em>corpora lutea</em> in the ovaries), as
 well as litter size were recorded on all shot females. Last but not
 least, stomach contents of
 all shot individuals, regardless of their sex, were analyzed to indirectly
 assess acorn production.  All vital rates were estimated from the
 demographic data collected during (re)captures and hunting bag analyses.
 Three stages corresponding to the following female body mass
 classes were considered: small (&lt; 30 kg), medium (between 30 and 50
 kg), and large (&gt; 50 kg) females, and that for 2 environmental
 states corresponding to good and poor years of acorn production.
 The annual survival
 probability of females of body
 class <em>i S<sub>i</sub> </em>was estimated as
 the probability of not
 dying from natural causes (1
 – <em>Mn<sub>i</sub></em>) multiplied by the
 probability of not being shot (1
 – <em>h<sub>i</sub></em>) (Eq.
 1).  (1) S<sub>i</sub> =  (1
 - <em>Mn<sub>i</sub></em>) x (1
 - <em>h<sub>i</sub></em>)    Surviving females either remained in the same
 body mass class until the next year (<em>pSS</em> for the
 probability of small females to remain small and (1
 – <em>pML</em>) for the probability of medium females to
 remain medium) or moved upward the following class
 (<em>pSM</em> for small females becoming
 medium, <em>pSL</em> for small females becoming large
 and<em> pML</em> for medium females becoming large). Large
 females remain in that state from one year to the next. Females from all
 body mass classes produced offspring. The
 fecundity <em>R<sub>i</sub></em> was estimated as
 the product of breeding proportion
 (<em>BP<sub>i</sub></em>), litter size
 (<em>LS<sub>i</sub></em>), postnatal survival
 (<em>Spn</em>), and sex ratio (assumed to be balanced, see
 Servanty et al. 2007 for supporting empirical evidence) (Eq.
 2).  (2)
 <em>R</em><em><sub>i</sub> =
  BP </em>x<em> LS<sub>i</sub> </em>x
 0.5<em> </em>x<em> Spn</em>
 Offspring produced either
 remained in the small body mass class (<em>piOs</em>) or moved
 upward the following class (1-<em>piOs</em>).
 We refer the readers to
 Touzot et al. (2020) for a more thorough description of the analytical
 steps for estimating vital rates. The only vital rate responding to acorn
 production was the
 probability for a female to participate in
 reproduction (<em>BP<sub>i</sub></em>). Thus, the probability for a female to breed was higher during good than poor years of acorn production for both medium and large-sized females.