DOI: 10.5061/dryad.j2906
title: Data from: Evaluating population viability and efficacy of conservation management using integrated population models

description: Predicting population responses to environmental conditions or management
 scenarios is a fundamental challenge for conservation. Proper
 consideration of demographic, environmental and parameter uncertainties is
 essential for projecting population trends and optimal conservation
 strategies. We developed a coupled integrated population model-Bayesian
 population viability analysis to assess the (1) impact of demographic
 rates (survival, fecundity, immigration) on past population dynamics; (2)
 population viability 10 years into the future; and (3) efficacy of
 possible management strategies for the federally endangered Great Lakes
 piping plover Charadrius melodus population. Our model synthesizes
 long-term population survey, nest monitoring and mark–resight data, while
 accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty. We incorporated latent
 abundance of eastern North American merlins Falco columbarius, a primary
 predator of adult plovers, as a covariate on adult survival via a parallel
 state-space model, accounting for the influence of an imperfectly observed
 process (i.e. predation pressure) on population viability. Mean plover
 abundance increased from 18 pairs in 1993 to 75 pairs in 2016, but annual
 population growth (math formula) was projected to be 0.95 (95% CI
 0.72–1.12), suggesting a potential decline to 67 pairs within 10 years.
 Without accounting for an expanding merlin population, we would have
 concluded that the plover population was projected to increase (math
 formula = 1.02; 95% CI 0.94–1.09) to 91 pairs by 2026. We compared four
 conservation scenarios: (1) no proposed management; (2) increased control
 of chick predators (e.g. Corvidae, Laridae, mammals); (3) increased merlin
 control; and (4) simultaneous chick predator and merlin control. Compared
 to the null scenario, chick predator control reduced quasi-extinction
 probability from 11.9% to 8.7%, merlin control more than halved (3.5%) the
 probability and simultaneous control reduced quasi-extinction probability
 to 2.6%. Synthesis and applications. Piping plover recovery actions should
 consider systematic predator control, rather than current ad hoc
 protocols, especially given the predicted increase in regional merlin
 abundance. This approach of combining integrated population models with
 Bayesian population viability analysis to identify limiting components of
 the population cycle and evaluate alternative management strategies for
 conservation decision-making shows great utility for aiding recovery of
 threatened populations.
description: Great Lakes piping
 plover population dataGreat Lakes piping
 plover population data from 1993 - 2016 used to build a coupled integrated
 population model-Bayesian population viability analysis (IPM-BPVA). The
 first tab includes capture-mark-resight (CMR) data for hatch-year and
 after hatch-year birds. Note that the CMR data included here represent a
 partial list (proprietary records omitted) because of the endangered
 status of Great Lakes piping plovers, but are sufficient for conducting
 the IPM-BPVA analysis. The second tab includes census data (number of
 breeding pairs annually). The third tab includes 2 columns on
 productivity: FLEDGE is the number of fledglings observed annually and
 SURV_BROOD is the number of surveyed broods annually. The last tab
 includes merlin census data collected at 2 observatories annually: Hawk
 Mountain (HM) and Whitefish Point (WP).Dryad_PIPLdata_Saunders.xlsx