DOI: 10.5061/dryad.905qfttsh
title: Data from: The pace and drivers of community change vary over space and time

description: Habitat heterogeneity and demographic processes create variability in the
 major taxonomic diversity trends: (1) biotic homogenization and (2) the
 emergence of novel community compositions. Nonetheless, little is known
 about how the imprints of environmental filtering and random demographic
 processes on community dissimilarity vary over (1) time or (2) space.
 Quantifying such variation is key to revealing temporal regime shifts,
 latitudinal trends, and site-level specificity in the drivers of community
 dissimilarity. To characterise variation in drivers of community change,
 we introduce the concept of "non-stationary community
 responses". We then apply this concept to estimate temporal and
 spatial variability in the imprints of climate, land cover, and random
 processes on spatial and temporal dissimilarity of community composition.
 As a model system, we use multidecadal monitoring data of bird (1147
 monitoring sites; 49 years), butterfly (101 monitoring sites; 22 years),
 and moth (99 monitoring sites; 26 years) communities across a 1200-km
 latitudinal gradient in Finland.  Regarding spatial
 dissimilarity, environmental filtering had a larger imprint than what
 random processes had. For butterflies and moths, environmental filtering
 shifted from being primarily associated with land cover to being primarily
 associated with climate indicating a likely regime shift along with
 warming climate. Regarding temporal dissimilarity of bird and butterfly
 communities, the imprints of environmental filtering and random processes
 varied between monitoring sites. A conventional stationary model was
 unable to track such site-specific processes. The imprints did not change
 linearly along a latitudinal gradient. Our results demonstrate that
 accounting for non-stationarity in community dynamics is needed to
 pinpoint temporal shifts and spatial variability in the drivers of
 community change. Should we assume that community change is driven by the
 same primary forces at all times and everywhere, then we will fail to
 detect the real local and contemporary drivers of change, and risk
 applying the wrong corrective measures.
description: <em><strong>Birds</strong></em>
 The bird monitoring data originates from 1149 transects surveyed
 in 1978-2020. Transects are 3-6 km long and visited once per survey year.
 Surveys are typically scheduled for June, with some variation in exact
 dates due to the latitudinally varying phenology of the breeding season.
 Not every transect is surveyed each year, whereas survey intensity
 (walking speed, survey methodology and width of surveyed area around a
 transect) is constant over surveys. The data has been curated and
 processed by the Finnish Museum of Natural History. In total 145 different
 bird species were detected during the monitoring. Surveyors counted
 abundance per species.
 <em><strong>Butterflies</strong></em> The butterfly monitoring data originate from 101 sites in agricultural landscapes surveyed in 1999-2020. Surveys are conducted by volunteers and the monitoring program is directed by the Finnish Environment Institute. Not every transect is surveyed each year. Surveys are conducted at least seven times per site in a survey lasting from May to August. Given latitudinal gradients in the length of the season, the survey period varies from 10 weeks in Northern Finland to 16 weeks in Southern Finland. The survey intensity of each single transect visit is held constant between sites and years and the species identification skill of the volunteers is high. In total 92 different butterfly species were detected during the monitoring. Surveyors counted abundance per species. <em><strong>Moths</strong></em> Moths were monitored by light traps at 99 sites in 1993-2018. The monitoring program is conducted under the National Moth Monitoring scheme (Nocturna) and directed by the Finnish Environment Institute. Traps are kept open from April to October depending on the moth activity period and emptied weekly by volunteers. The surveys in which moth traps had been kept open under six or over eight days were discarded to control for the varying sampling effort. Due to varying resource allocation and different moth activity periods, sites may have been visited at different times between years and sites. (Note that this sampling-related variation is explicitly accounted for in the model.) The data have been curated by monitoring coordinators. In total 908 different moth species were detected during the monitoring. Surveyors counted abundance per species.
description: ## Description of the data and file structure * File 1 Name:
 Bioclimatic_zones/Bioclimatic_zones.shp * File 1 Description: Bioclimatic
 zones over Finland. * Variables of the data table: * BioclimaticZone:
 bioclimatic zoning of Finland with categories for central boreal, northern
 boreal, hemiboreal and southern boreal zones. * Coordinate system: ETRS89
 / TM35FIN (epsg: 3067) * File 2 Name:
 Compiled_data/Community_environment_data_bird.RData * File 2 Description:
 Community turnover and environmental dissimilarity between the bird
 community samples. * NA values indicate no measurement. * Variables of the
 data table (units inside the brackets): * sp: community turnover
 (Bray-Curtis dissimilarity) * geogr: geographical distance (km) * t:
 temporal distance in one year resolution * t_coarse: temporal distance in
 five years resolution * bc_diss: difference in bioclimatic zones * lat:
 latitude difference (km) * gdd: difference in the heat sum over the days
 with mean temperature over 5 Celsius degrees of the sampling year * prec:
 difference in the precipitation sum over the days with mean temperature
 over 5 Celsius degrees of the sampling year (mm) * freeze: difference in
 the number of freezing days of the winter season preceding the sampling
 year * snow: difference in the length of snow cover of the winter season
 preceding the sampling year (days) * broad: difference in the coverage of
 broadleaf forests (proportional coverage) * conif: difference in the
 coverage of coniferous forests (proportional coverage) * mixed: difference
 in the coverage of mixed forests (proportional coverage) * entropy:
 difference in the land cover entropy * agric: difference in the coverage
 of agricultural land use (proportional coverage) * grass: difference in
 the coverage of grassland (proportional coverage) * sp_richness:
 difference in the species richness * mean_abundance: mean abundance
 between sites * X: longitude coordinate of the focal site (Coordinate
 system: ETRS89 / TM35FIN (epsg: 3067)) * Y: latitude coordinate of the
 focal site (Coordinate system: ETRS89 / TM35FIN (epsg: 3067)) * siteID:
 site ID of the focal site * year: sampling year of the focal sample *
 year_coarse: sampling year of the focal sample in five years resolution *
 bc: bioclimatic zone of the focal sample * File 3 Name:
 Compiled_data/Community_environment_data_butterfly.RData * File 3
 Description: Community turnover and environmental dissimilarity between
 the butterfly community samples. * NA values indicate no measurement. *
 Variables of the data table (units inside the brackets): * sp: community
 turnover (Bray-Curtis dissimilarity) * geogr: geographical distance (km) *
 t: temporal distance in one year resolution * t_coarse: temporal distance
 in five years resolution * bc_diss: difference in bioclimatic zones * lat:
 latitude difference (km) * gdd: difference in the heat sum over the days
 with mean temperature over 5 Celsius degrees of the sampling year * prec:
 difference in the precipitation sum over the days with mean temperature
 over 5 Celsius degrees of the sampling year (mm) * freeze: difference in
 the number of freezing days of the winter season preceding the sampling
 year * snow: difference in the length of snow cover of the winter season
 preceding the sampling year (days) * broad: difference in the coverage of
 broadleaf forests (proportional coverage) * conif: difference in the
 coverage of coniferous forests (proportional coverage) * mixed: difference
 in the coverage of mixed forests (proportional coverage) * entropy:
 difference in the land cover entropy * agric: difference in the coverage
 of agricultural land use (proportional coverage) * grass: difference in
 the coverage of grassland (proportional coverage) * sp_richness:
 difference in the species richness * mean_abundance: mean abundance
 between sites * X: longitude coordinate of the focal site (Coordinate
 system: ETRS89 / TM35FIN (epsg: 3067)) * Y: latitude coordinate of the
 focal site (Coordinate system: ETRS89 / TM35FIN (epsg: 3067)) * siteID:
 site ID of the focal site * year: sampling year of the focal sample *
 year_coarse: sampling year of the focal sample in five years resolution *
 bc: bioclimatic zone of the focal sample * File 4 Name:
 Compiled_data/Community_environment_data_moth.RData * File 4 Description:
 Community turnover and environmental dissimilarity between the moth
 community samples. * NA values indicate no measurement. * Variables of the
 data table (units inside the brackets): * sp: community turnover
 (Bray-Curtis dissimilarity) * geogr: geographical distance (km) * t:
 temporal distance in one year resolution * t_coarse: temporal distance in
 five years resolution * bc_diss: difference in bioclimatic zones * lat:
 latitude difference (km) * gdd: difference in the heat sum over the days
 with mean temperature over 5 Celsius degrees of the sampling year * prec:
 difference in the precipitation sum over the days with mean temperature
 over 5 Celsius degrees of the sampling year (mm) * freeze: difference in
 the number of freezing days of the winter season preceding the sampling
 year * snow: difference in the length of snow cover of the winter season
 preceding the sampling year (days) * broad: difference in the coverage of
 broadleaf forests (proportional coverage) * conif: difference in the
 coverage of coniferous forests (proportional coverage) * mixed: difference
 in the coverage of mixed forests (proportional coverage) * entropy:
 difference in the land cover entropy * agric: difference in the coverage
 of agricultural land use (proportional coverage) * grass: difference in
 the coverage of grassland (proportional coverage) * sp_richness:
 difference in the species richness * mean_abundance: mean abundance
 between sites * X: longitude coordinate of the focal site (Coordinate
 system: ETRS89 / TM35FIN (epsg: 3067)) * Y: latitude coordinate of the
 focal site (Coordinate system: ETRS89 / TM35FIN (epsg: 3067)) * siteID:
 site ID of the focal site * year: sampling year of the focal sample *
 year_coarse: sampling year of the focal sample in five years resolution *
 bc: bioclimatic zone of the focal sample * File 5 Name:
 data/Lattice_k_bird.graph * File 5 Description: Adjacency structure of the
 bird survey sites. * File 6 Name: data/Lattice_k_butterfly.graph * File 6
 Description: Adjacency structure of the butterfly survey sites. * File 7
 Name: data/Lattice_k_moth.graph * File 7 Description: Adjacency structure
 of the moth survey sites. Data was derived from the following sources: *
 Bioclimatic zones: * Finnish Environment Institute:
 [https://www.syke.fi/en-US/Open_information/Spatial_datasets/Downloadable_spatial_dataset](https://www.syke.fi/en-US/Open_information/Spatial_datasets/Downloadable_spatial_dataset) * Climate variables were computed based on the products from: * Aalto, J., Pirinen, P., & Jylhä, K. (2016). New gridded daily climatology of Finland: Permutation‐based uncertainty estimates and temporal trends in climate. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 121(8), 3807-3823. * Land use from Corine land cover products: * EEA. (2000). Copernicus Land Monitoring Service 2000. * EEA. (2006). Copernicus Land Monitoring Service 2006. * EEA. (2012). Copernicus Land Monitoring Service 2012. * EEA. (2018). Copernicus Land Monitoring Service 2018. * Monitoring data: * Bird: Finnish Museum of Natural History. ([https://laji.fi/observation/list?target=MX.37580&collectionId=HR.61](https://laji.fi/observation/list?target=MX.37580&collectionId=HR.61)) * Butterfly: Finnish Environment Institute. ([https://butterfly-monitoring.net/ebms-data%20access](https://butterfly-monitoring.net/ebms-data%20access)) * Moth: Finnish Environment Institute. ([https://laji.fi/en/observation/list?collectionId=HR.4511](https://laji.fi/en/observation/list?collectionId=HR.4511)) ## Code/Software This code and software have been used to create the analysis and results of the study. All analysis were run with R 4.3.1 (RStudio Team (2020)). Inference is conducted with INLA (version 23.05.30, [https://www.r-inla.org/](https://www.r-inla.org/)). * File 1 Name: Fig2.R * File 1 Description: Plot figure 2 of the manuscript. * File 3 Name: Fig3.R * File 3 Description: Plot figures 3 of the manuscript. * File 4 Name: Fig4.R * File 4 Description: Plot figures 4 of the manuscript. * File 5 Name: Fig5.R * File 5 Description: Plot figures 5 of the manuscript. * File 6 Name: Run_analysis.R * File 6 Description: 1. Read in community turnover and environmental dissimilarity data. 2. Set data for models and run five models (spatio-temporal, 2xspatial and 2xtemporal models). 3. Extract estimated effects from the fitted models.