DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18209540
title: AI-Integrated Framework for Cost Reduction in Petroleum Extraction and Refining: A Bayesian-Enhanced Model with Advanced Global Sensitivity Analysis, GPU-Accelerated Neural Operators, Economic Feasibility Assessment, Real-World Case Studies, Environmental Impact Assessment, and Ethical Considerations

description: This manuscript elucidates a sophisticated AI-integrated conceptual framework engineered to realize substantial operational cost reductions in petroleum extraction and refining through optimized enhanced oil recovery (EOR) strategies. Utilizing physics-informed neural operators (PINOs) as high-fidelity surrogates for multiphase flow, simulations evince up to 30% cost savings in benchmarks, consonant with 2025-2026 industry metrics of 10--25% efficiencies via AI [bcg2025ai, deloitte2026outlook, usetech2026ai]. The framework amalgamates deep reinforcement learning (DRL), Bayesian inference for uncertainty quantification (UQ), and advanced variance-based global sensitivity analysis (GSA) incorporating interaction effects, Morris screening, FAST methods, and uncertainty propagation. It assimilates real-time telemetry with predictive analytics to ameliorate inefficiencies, modeling physics-informed linkages in CO2-EOR impacting crude quality (API uplift 7--12%, viscosity reduction 75%) [netl2023co2eor, ampomah2024sequestration]. Mathematical foundations include stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs), hybrid variational inference-Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (VI-HMC) for scalable UQ, adjoint-optimized non-convex problems with advanced derivatives (Jacobians, Hessians), and rigorous proofs of convergence. GPU-accelerated Python codes, employing PyTorch for PINOs and custom HMC, corroborate mitigations across heterogeneous reservoirs, calibrated to OPEX benchmarks (55--65 USD/bbl) [eia2016upstream]. Falsifiability is affirmed via SPE benchmarks (SPE10, CSP11) and posterior predictive checks, with posteriors delineating sensitivities (phi > 0.20 for viability). Economic feasibility is rigorously assessed through NPV, ROI, and payback analyses, projecting 30--70% profit increments for stakeholders [bcg2025ai]. Real-world case studies from Permian Basin, H59 block, Denver Unit, Bell Creek, and Indonesian fields validate efficacy, while environmental impacts of CO2-EOR are scrutinized, balancing sequestration benefits (0.3--0.5 tCO2/bbl stored) against risks (net emissions increase, water contamination, induced seismicity) [netl2023co2eor, iowacapital2024co2eor, ciel2025ccs, cleanwater2020water, cleanwater2017risks, climatesolutions2025legal, doe2021co2eor, advres2025eor, sciencedirect2024h59, locus2025permian, adb2019indonesia, era2017co2eor, pnnl2010co2eor, iea2019carbonnegative, ampomah2024sequestration]. Ethical considerations address data privacy, algorithmic bias, cybersecurity, job displacement, and accountability in AI deployment [oglawyers2025ai, energycentral2023ai, slb2025ai, mehaffyweber2025ai, kent2023ai, ifs2025ai, wjarr2025ai, und2025ai, innovateenergynow2025ai, chiefaiofficer2025ai, linkedin2024ai]. This paradigm propels petroleum engineering with a verifiable, scalable architecture, surmounting bottlenecks via tensor parallelism and hybrid VI-HMC (O(d log d)).