DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.17574823
title: Techno-Economic Feasibility of Centralized and Decentralized Ammonia Production in the United States - Dataset

description: Usage Notes

This repository contains comprehensive data supporting the figures and analyses presented in the article "Techno-Economic Feasibility of Centralized and Decentralized Ammonia Production in the United States". The Sopplementary Data file provides the input data used to plot the figures in the main manuscript and supplementary information. 

Each sheet within the Excel files corresponds to specific figures or datasets, as outlined below. Users are encouraged to refer to the article for additional context and detailed information regarding the datasets presented.


Abstract:

Ammonia is a cornerstone of modern agriculture, supplying the nitrogen essential for crops that nourish nearly half the global population. Yet its production is responsible for ~2% of global greenhouse gas emissions. To meet climate and food security goals, sustainable, low-carbon, and resilient ammonia production systems are needed. Here, we develop a spatially explicit techno-economic model to compare centralized and decentralized ammonia production pathways across the U.S., a major global ammonia producer and consumer, spanning the full supply chain from hydrogen production to fertilizer delivery. We integrate high-resolution supply and demand data and apply linear optimization to estimate delivered ammonia costs, accounting for geographic mismatches and transportation. Our results show that decentralized ammonia production, whether powered by grid electricity or solar energy, is substantially more expensive than centralized production from natural gas or coal. Centralized natural gas-based ammonia has a median production cost of 326 USD/tonne NH3, compared to 499 USD/tonne for coal. Decentralized grid-powered systems range from 659 to 1,634 USD/tonne, and solar-powered systems from 1,077 to 2,266 USD/tonne. Transportation costs for centralized production range from 7 to 85 USD/tonne, with a median of 40 USD/tonne, resulting in a delivered cost of 343 USD/tonne. Median delivered costs for decentralized grid- and solar-powered systems are 1,069 and 1,494 USD/tonne, respectively. Decentralized systems require electricity prices below 19 USD/MWh (grid) and 17 USD/MWh (solar) to achieve cost parity, well below 2024 U.S. averages of 117 USD/MWh. These results highlight the economic challenges facing decentralized ammonia production and the importance of electricity cost reductions, tax credits, carbon pricing, or further technological breakthroughs for broader viability.

Authors:

Stefano Mingolla and Lorenzo Rosa*

 

Affiliation:

Biosphere Sciences and Engineering, Carnegie Science, Stanford, CA 94305, United States of America

 

Corresponding Author:

*Lorenzo Rosa lrosa@carnegiescience.edu

 

Supplementary Data: Description of Sheets





Sheet "Fig 2 demand": County-level nitrogen demand estimates (in kt N/year).

Sheet "Fig 2 supply": Nominal installed ammonia production capacity (in kt NH3/year) for 33 U.S. plants, disaggregated by feedstock type and geolocated using plant-level coordinates.

Sheet "Fig 3": Levelized cost of ammonia (LCOA, USD/t  NH3) for centralized (natural gas and coal) and decetralized (grid electricity and renewables) based on historical feedstock/fuel ranges in the U.S.

Sheet "LCOA centralized": Average ammonia transportation cost per county (USD/t NH3).

Sheet "Fig 5": Provides estimations on the number of people fed by nitrogen fertilizers.

Sheet "SI Fig 1": Historical trend in nitrogen fertilizer (N-fertilizer) agricultural use in the U.S. from 1961 to 2023

Sheet "SI Fig 2": Historical (1997–2024) state-level natural gas prices (USD/MMBtu), including optimistic (5th percentile), reference (50th percentile), and pessimistic (95th percentile) scenario projections.

Sheet "SI Fig 3": Historical (2000–2024) state-level coal prices (USD/t coal), including optimistic (5th percentile), reference (50th percentile), and pessimistic (95th percentile) scenario projections.

Sheet "SI Fig 5": Historical (2001–2024) state-level electricity prices (USD/MWh), including optimistic (5th percentile), reference (50th percentile), and pessimistic (95th percentile) scenario projections.

Sheet "SI Fig 6": County-level solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity factors (%) and derived levelized cost of electricity (USD/MWh) based on optimistic, reference, and pessimistic assumptions.