DOI: 10.3886/icpsr39223.v1
title: Monitoring the Future: Base Year & Follow-Up Core Panel Data, Ages 18-30, United States, 1976-2021 [Restricted-Use]
title: Version 1

description: The Monitoring the Future (MTF) project is a long-term epidemiologic and etiologic study of substance use among youth and adults in the United States. It is conducted at the University of Michigan's Institute for Social Research and is funded by a series of investigator-initiated research grants from the National Institute on Drug Abuse.
The MTF panel study consists of six different survey forms (five forms from 1976-1988), and each survey contains a "core" set of questions about demographics and substance use. This study contains the "core" data for these questions compiled across all survey forms and years in which they are included for the longitudinal panel participants. Each record in the core panel dataset includes the respondent's data for their base year (BY) 12th grade survey (modal age 18) and their young adult follow-up FU surveys (modal ages 19-30).
 <b>The core panel dataset should be selected by all researchers.</b> Use the linking variable available on all datasets, MTFID, to link the core dataset with all other MTF panel datasets.
Here is a list of subjects included in the core dataset:
Administrative variables
Year of administration
Survey form
Survey date
BY survey weight, sampling stratum and cluster
FU panel analysis weights
Demographics
BY only
#Parents in household
Parent education levels
Respondent's age in months
Sex
Race/Ethnicity
Region of the country (school location)
Population density/Urbanicity (school location)
High school Zip Code, State and County FIPS codes (can be linked to user-provided data; results can be reported at no unit smaller than US geographical region)
Absenteeism (illness, cutting, skipping class)
High school program, Grades, post-high school plans
FU only
Pregnancy status
Household type
Urbanicity
Absenteeism (missing work due to illness, other)
Vocational/Technical education, Armed forces, College attendance
College grades, attendance, Greek life
BY and FU
Marital status
Household composition
Political preference
Religious attendance, importance, preference
Evenings out, Dating
Employment
Salary/earned Income and Other Income
Driving, tickets, and accidents related to alcohol and other substance use
Substance use
Cigarette use
Alcohol use (including binge drinking (e.g. 5+ drinks in a row/2 weeks), drunkenness)
Marijuana/cannabis, hashish use
LSD use
Hallucinogen use, other than LSD
Cocaine use (including cocaine, crack, other forms)
Amphetamine use
Sedatives/Barbiturate use
Tranquilizer use
Heroin use (with and without needles)
Narcotics use (other than Heroin)
Inhalant use
Steroid use
Ice use
Methamphetamine use
MDMA use
Vaping: nicotine, marijuana, flavoring
Please see the study documentation available on the MTF Panel series page for question-specific details.
More information about the MTF project can be accessed through the Monitoring the Future website. Annual reports are published by the research team, describing the data collection and trends over time.
description: Panel analysis weights are available and recommended for use with all analyses.
Using the panel analysis weight allows estimates to weight back to the national 12th grade samples while accounting for:

the
probability of initial selection into the 12th grade samples,
the fraction of each 12th grade sample not eligible for panel selection because they did not provide contact information and/or data on sex
the panel sample selection process including oversampling of those reporting drug use at base year
panel attrition.

Please see the MTF Occasional Paper 98: An Updated Weighting Strategy for the Monitoring the Future Panel Study, for methodological details on the creation of the panel analysis weights, and review Supplement Appendix C: MTF Panel Analysis Weight Selection and Normalization for analytic examples.
Note: Beginning with datasets that include data through 2021, the panel analysis weights are included with each file. Prior to 2021, the panel analysis weights were available in a separate dataset which the researcher needs to merge into their working data sets. Please see the MTF panel data study NAHDAP 37072 for details.
description: Response Rates: For information regarding panel response rates, please see the latest MTF annual report.
description: The nationally-representative base year (BY) cohort sample (i.e. each high school senior class) was selected using a multistage area probability sample design involving three selection stages: (1) geographic areas or primary sampling units (PSUs), (2) schools (or linked groups of schools) within PSUs, and (3) students within sampled schools.
Each year, 2,450 respondents to the 12th grade survey were selected for biennial longitudinal follow-up. The panel sample was selected within school by form and sex, and each base-year school was required to have a minimum of two follow-up selections (individuals). The base year sampling weight was factored into the targeted sample size for each school/form/sex combination. An illicit drug user/nonuser stratification was created, based on responses to nine base year questions about 30-day drug use. (An individual was considered a "user" if they reported any use of LSD, hallucinogens other than LSD, cocaine, amphetamines, sedatives/barbiturates, tranquilizers, heroin, or narcotics other than heroin, or used marijuana 20 or more times in the past 30 days.) Illicit drug users were sampled at a 3-to-1 rate relative to non-users.
When the 12th grade respondents originally selected for follow-up reach age 35, they continue to be surveyed every five years at ages 35, 40, 45, 50, 55, and 60. Single questionnaires are presented at each age, covering many of the same topics as the age 19-30 surveys and including additional questions on life events, drug use, and health.
Please see Chapter 1 of the MTF annual panel study report for additional sampling details.
description: Datasets: 
DS1: Restricted-Use Core Panel Data 1976-2021
description: Young adult and Middle adult follow-up of the U.S. high school seniors in MTF in the year of the baseline interview. Smallest Geographic Unit: zip code
description: mail questionnaire; web-based surveyMTF base year/high school surveys were conducted using the following methods:
1976-2018: paper-and-pencil surveys
2019: Randomization of half of the schools to the paper survey; half to a tablet-based survey preloaded with the MTF questionnaires
2020: Tablet surveys; data collection halted Mar. 15, 2020 due to COVID
2021+: Web-based surveys administered to all participants.
MTF Panel surveys from 1977-2021, for young adults (ages 19-30) were conducted by using the following methods:
1977-2017: Mailed paper surveys
2018-2019: A random half of all respondents received a mailed paper survey, while the other half were surveyed using a new procedure that encouraged participation using web surveys (web-push)
2020-2021: All respondents were asked to complete a web survey, and the paper survey was an option for those who did not complete the web survey.
More information about the MTF project can be accessed through the Monitoring the Future website. Annual reports are published by the research team, describing the data collection and trends over time.
This study was conducted by the Survey Research Center, Institute for Social Research at the University of Michigan.