DOI: 10.14457/tu.the.2020.69
title: Impacts of renewable energy and energy efficiency policies on CO2 emissions in Thailand

description: In 2015, Thailand announced the alternative energy development plan (AEDP2015), the energy efficiency plan (EEP2015) and the power development plan (PDP2015). The renewable energy (RE) plans aim at increasing share of RE in final consumption at 30% in 2036 while the energy efficiency (EE) plans aim at improving energy efficiency by reducing energy intensity of 30% in 2036 as well as reducing fossil-fuel consumption. Nevertheless, Thailand has endeavored to promote other actions on climate change combat. Strong actions against climate impacts have been performed under the Thailand’s Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) and Paris Agreement. In 2014, Thailand proposed NAMAs roadmap in the energy and the transport sectors to reduce emissions between 7% and 20% below its Business as usual (BAU) level in 2020. Then, in 2015 Thailand submitted its first Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under Paris Agreement to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Thailand’s first NDC revealed that nation-wide GHG emissions will be voluntarily reduced by 20% when compared with its business-as-usual (BAU) level in 2030 in the energy, industrial processes and product uses (IPPU), and the waste sectors. The GHG emission reduction will result in several co-benefits such as increasing energy security and decreasing local air pollutants. Therefore, this study analyzes potentials of GHG emission reduction during 2015-2050 from utilization of renewable energy and increasing energy efficiency using the Long-range Energy Alternative Planning system (LEAP) model. Results include potential of GHG emission reduction from the RE and EE plans from in Thailand’s NDC. To meet Thailand’s first NDC target of 20 percent GHG emission reduction target in 2030, targets of the RE plan and the EE plan must be achieved by 50% and 75%, respectively or vice versa. In addition, the extended NDC scenario in 2050 is analyzed in the long-term perspective of Thailand showing 30.4 percent reduction compared to the BAU. Furthermore, this study also investigates the combined the marginal abatement costs (MACs) of technologies in both the supply and demand sides. For the supply side, the results indicated that biomass and biogas measures show the lowest MAC options while the small hydro option has the highest MAC. For the demand side, the MACs of biofuels in the transport sector would be the most cost-effective option among the economic sectors. The MACs efficient devices in the industries such as efficient lighting, cooling and electric motors would have higher costs than those in the other sectors, which imply incentives to promote such technologies. Finally, three indicators of co-benefits, including GHG intensity, energy intensity and diversity of primary energy demand are investigated regarding the mitigation plan scenarios. They present the measures of GHG emission reduction in the AEDP2015 and EEP2015 plans will contribute co-benefits to the society resulting in sustainable development. The GHG intensity would reduce from 0.94 kt CO2eq/USD in 2010 to 0.46 kt CO2eq/USD in 2030. The energy intensity would reduce from 0.42 toe/thousand USD in 2010 to 0.33 toe/thousand USD in 2030. The diversity of primary energy demand would increase from 78.2% in 2010 to 85.6% in 2030. The policy implication includes promotion of energy efficiency and acceleration of the deployment of RE and advanced technologies.