DOI: 10.3886/icpsr20422.v1
title: Estimating Human Trafficking into the United States [Phase I: Development of a Methodology]
title: Version 1

description: This research project developed and fully documented a method to estimate the number of females and males trafficked for the purposes of sexual and labor exploitation from eight countries (Colombia, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Mexico, Nicaragua, Peru, and Venezuela) into the United States at the Southwest border. The model utilizes only open source data. This research represents the first phase of a two-phase project and Provides a conceptual framework for identifying potential data sources to estimate the number of victims at different stages in traffickingDevelops statistical models to estimate the number of males and females at risk of being trafficked for sexual and labor exploitation from the eight countries, and the number of males and females actually trafficked for sex and laborIncorporates into the estimation models the transit journey of trafficking victims from the eight countries to the southwest border of the United StatesDesigns the estimation models such that they are highly flexible and modular so that they can evolve as the body of data expands Utilizes open source data as inputs to the statistical model, making the model accessible to anyone interested in using itPresents preliminary estimates that illustrate the use of the statistical methodsIlluminates gaps in data sources. The data included in this collection are the open source data which were primarily used in the models to estimate the number of males and females at risk of being trafficked.
description: The purpose of this study was to develop and fully document methods to estimate the number of females and males trafficked for the purposes of sexual and labor exploitation from eight countries (Colombia, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Mexico, Nicaragua, Peru, and Venezuela) into the United States at the southwest border.
description: Trafficking is organized into four zones or phases: Recruitment from the eight countries of origin (source countries) Transit journey Arrival at southwest border of the United States Transport from southwest border to markets within the United States. The data available in this collection focus on the first phase (recruitment). This model incorporates two components for the estimated risk of being trafficked-- country-specific and age-specific risk. Trafficking victims are vulnerable to promises of greater opportunity, higher income, and a chance to help their families. The study attempted to find data that captured the various push factors in each source country that would help quantify the risk associated with a particular country. Push factors include disparate economic growth, breakdown of economic systems, and increase in war and armed conflict, environmental degradation, natural disasters, and family violence. For females, country-specific factors are captured in a composite measure created from the Gini Index (UNDP, 2005) which measures the extent to which the distribution of income (or consumption) among individuals or households within a country deviates from a perfectly equal distribution, Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) (Transparency International, 2005), the Gender-related Development Index (GDI) (UNDP, 2005), and the percent of the country that is urban (U.S. Census Bureau, 2005; HIV InSite, 2005). For men, country-specific factors are captured in a composite measure created from the Gini Index, CPI (International Labour Organization, 2005), male unemployment rates (International Labour Organization, 2005), and the Consumer Price Index (International Labour Organization, 2005). The age-specific risk (population data in each of the eight countries of origin are available for 5-year age groups, or 17 age groups in all) is modeled with a Weibull probability distribution (see Appendix A of the final report: Clawson, Layne, and Small, 2006; NCJ 215475), which is specified differently for males and females.
description: The Country-Specific Risk Indices for Females Data (Part 1) include a total of 12 variables. These include four indicator variables: The Corruption Perception Index (CPI), The Gender-Related Development Index (GDI), The Gini Index, and the Percentage of population living in urban areas. For each of these indicators, there are also linear transformations created to standardize each index. From these, a composite indicator and a country-specific risk multiplier were calculated. The Country-Specific Risk Indices for Males Data (Part 2) include a total of 14 variables. These include five indicator variables: the CPI, the Gini Index, the percentage of population living in urban areas, the male unemployment rate, and the Consumer Price Index. For each of these indicators, there are also linear transformations created to standardize each index. From these, a composite indicator and a country-specific risk multiplier were calculated. The Population Data (Part 3) include 10 variables summarizing the male and female population size by age for the eight countries of origin and the United States in 2005. The U.S. Population Data (Part 4) include 3 variables summarizing the U.S. male and female population size by age.
description: None
description: The decision to limit the regions of interest for this study to the eight countries of origin (Colombia, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Mexico, Nicaragua, Peru, and Venezuela) and to one entry point into the United States (the southwest border) was based on reported trafficking activity in the eight countries of origin, data limitations, and the need to focus the scope of work to a demonstration project. Part 1 includes data on 112 countries, including the 8 source countries and the United States. Part 2 includes data on 99 countries, including the 8 source countries and the United States. Part 3 includes data on 17 age categories in 9 countries (the eight source countries and the United States), resulting in a total of 153 cases. Part 4 includes data on 103 ages (or age ranges) in the United States.
description: Datasets: DS0: Study-Level Files DS1: Country-Specific Risk Indices for Females Data DS2: Country-Specific Risk Indices for Males Data DS3: Population Data DS4: U.S. Population Data
description: Part 1 and 2: All countries for which data on the selected indicators were available. Part 3: The 8 selected source countries (Colombia, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Mexico, Nicaragua, Peru, and Venezuela) and the United States. Part 4: The United States. Smallest Geographic Unit: country
description: record abstractsThe data included in this collection correspond to phase one of a two phase study. Additional data used for phase two may not be included in this collection.The model developed as part of this study includes both a "Source Zone" model and a "Transit Zone" model. The Country-Specific Risk Indices for Females (Part 1) and Country-Specific Risk Indices for Males (Part 2) data correspond to the Source Zone model. The Population data (Parts 3 and 4) were used in both the Source and Transit zone models. For more information about the Source Zone and Transit Zone models, users should refer to the final report for the study (Clawson, Layne, and Small, 2006; NCJ 215475).Users should be aware that although the focus of this study was on eight source countries (Colombia, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Mexico, Nicaragua, Peru, and Venezuela), Country-Specific Risk Indices for Females (Part 1) and Country-Specific Risk Indices for Males (Part 2) include data from additional countries. Population Data (Part 3) includes only data from the source countries and the United States, and U.S. Population Data (Part 4) includes data only for the United States.Users should be aware that ICPSR converted the original Microsoft Excel data provided by the principal investigators to SPSS, SAS, and Stata formats for dissemination purposes. Not all of the original Microsoft Excel data were converted, and PDF copies of those data are included in the [CODEBOOKS/UG] for these data.Users should be aware that the number of countries for which data were provided differs between the data files. Country-Specific Risk Indices for Females Data (Part 1) has data for 112 countries and Country-Specific Risk Indices for Males Data (Part 2) has data for 99 countries. The following countries are included in Part 1 but not in Part 2: Burkina Faso, Burundi, Gambia, Lao People's Rep., Madagascar, Malawi, Niger, Rwanda, Sierra Leone, Tanzania, Uganda, Uzbekistan, and Zimbabwe.