DOI: 10.5061/dryad.bcc2fqzr9
title: Using Population Viability Analysis (PVA) to inform and adapt ex situ conservation activities benefitting a Critically Endangered butterfly

description: Population viability analysis (PVA) can be a useful decision-support tool
 to leverage uncertainty to avoid conservation hesitancy and paralysis. We
 developed a novel PVA model to help evaluate the effectiveness of a range
 of ex situ management options for the Critically Endangered Poweshiek
 skipperling butterfly.  The PVA indicated that the last three
 known United States populations face high likelihoods of extinction in the
 absence of supportive ex situ management, particularly when
 population sizes and in situ survival rates are low. Modeling indicated
 that a headstarting program initiated in 2017 to reinforce these
 populations was only likely delaying extirpation. Persistence
 probabilities fell once the program was concluded, regardless of
 population size or survival rate. An alternative ex situ breeding
 program provided significant boosts to the persistence of all populations
 by producing significantly more individuals available for releases than a
 headstarting program reliant on in situ population sizes could provide.
 Withholding individuals to establish a large ex situ breeding population
 did not impose a notable penalty to wild populations and improved
 persistence. Persistence was boosted further when an ex situ
 breeding program is combined with headstarting to reinforce populations.
 Based on these model outcomes, we elected to pivot management strategies
 from headstarting to reinforcement via an ex situ breeding
 program.  Effective PVAs are contingent on the incorporation of
 as much information as possible, acknowledgement of uncertainty, and
 flexibility. PVAs provide research opportunities and have been
 under-utilized in insect conservation. Our model is likely the first to
 link ex situ management to in situ dynamics for an invertebrate.
description: # Using Population Viability Analysis (PVA) to inform and adapt ex situ
 conservation activities benefitting a Critically Endangered butterfly
 Dataset DOI: [10.5061/dryad.bcc2fqzr9](10.5061/dryad.bcc2fqzr9) ##
 Description of the data and file structure Each zipped folder contains the
 needed executable files to run the scenarios outlined in the manuscript
 "**Using Population Viability Analysis to inform and adapt *ex situ*
 conservation activities benefitting a Critically Endangered
 butterfly"** by Runquist et al. in the program *Vortex 10*.  ###
 Files and variables #### File: BaselineNoExSituMgmt.zip
 **Description:** Executable files (.xml, .bak, .bak2) for the Baseline
 scenario in which no ex situ management occurs. Also contains the folder
 VOutput for the data outputs of all simulated scenario parameter
 variations. Open all files in Vortex 10. Output files are named by their
 combination of the parameter variations. For example: NoMgmtSurv03N25
 files are associated with model runs of the baseline no ex situ management
 with a wild total egg to adult survival rate (STOT) of 0.03 and an initial
 starting population of 25 adults. Model file name combination codes:
 Surv025: Scenarios with total wild survival (STOT) = 0.025 Surv03:
 Scenarios with total wild survival (STOT) = 0.03 Surv035: Scenarios with
 total wild survival (STOT) = 0.035 Surv04: Scenarios with total wild
 survival (STOT) = 0.04 N25: Scenarios with initial population = 25 N45:
 Scenarios with initial population = 45 N60: Scenarios with initial
 population = 60 #### File: HeadStart.zip **Description:** Executable files
 (.xml, .bak, .bak2) for the population reinforcement via headstarting
 scenario. Also contains the folder VOutput for the data outputs of all
 simulated scenario parameter variations. Open all files in Vortex 10.
 Output files are named by their combination of the parameter variations.
 For example: Headstart_Surv035_HeadstartN45-HS15 files are associated with
 the model run of a headstarting program with a wild total egg to
 adultsurvival rate (STOT) of 0.035, an initial starting population of 45
 adults, and a duration of 15 years. Model file name combination codes:
 Surv025: Scenarios with total wild survival (STOT) = 0.025 Surv03:
 Scenarios with total wild survival (STOT) = 0.03 Surv035: Scenarios with
 total wild survival (STOT) = 0.035 Surv04: Scenarios with total wild
 survival (STOT) = 0.04 N25: Scenarios with initial population = 25 N45:
 Scenarios with initial population = 45 N60: Scenarios with initial
 population = 60 HS5: Headstarting occurs for 5 years HS10: Headstarting
 occurs for 10 years HS15: Headstarting occurs for 1 5 years #### File:
 CaptiveBreed.zip **Description:**  Executable files (.xml, .bak, .bak2)
 for the population reinforcement via captive breeding and with an
 additional optional headstarting scenario. Also contains the folder
 VOutput for the data outputs of all simulated scenario parameter
 variations. Open all files in Vortex 10. Output files are named by their
 combination of the parameter variations. For example:
 CaptiveBreed_CB_Surv025_40Pairs files are associated with the model run of
 an ex situ program consisting of only captive breeding (but no concurrent)
 headstarting with a wild total egg to adult survival rate (STOT) of 0.025,
 and an annual captive breeding population of 40 pairs. Model file name
 combination codes: CB: An ex situ program with Captive Breeding only and
 no headstarting HS-CB: An ex situ program with Headstarting in addition to
 Captive Breeding  Surv025: Scenarios with total wild survival (STOT) =
 0.025 Surv03: Scenarios with total wild survival (STOT) = 0.03 Surv035:
 Scenarios with total wild survival (STOT) = 0.035 Surv04: Scenarios with
 total wild survival (STOT) = 0.04 10Pairs: A captive breeding population
 in which 10 pairs are withheld annually for breeding 20Pairs: A captive
 breeding population in which 20 pairs are withheld annually for breeding
 40Pairs: A captive breeding population in which 40 pairs are withheld
 annually for breeding ## Code/software Vortex
 10. [https://scti.tools/vortex/](https://scti.tools/vortex/)