DOI: 10.5061/dryad.zpc866tmp
title: Distribution range and richness of plant species are predicted to increase by 2100 due to a warmer and wetter climate in northern China

description: The warming global climate is threatening terrestrial ecosystem stability,
 including plant community structure and diversity. However, it remains
 unclear how distribution, richness and turnover of plant species are
 impacted by warming and wetting in northern China. In the present study,
 species distribution models were applied to predict the spatial
 distribution of 5,111 plant species based on 111,071 occurrence records in
 northern China. Additionally, variations in species richness and turnover
 rates were predicted for 2100 under three scenarios. The results indicated
 that approximately 70% of plant species will expand in their distribution,
 resulting in an increase in species richness. These changes will be driven
 mainly by temperature seasonality (TSN), annual precipitation (MAP), and
 mean temperature of the coldest quarter (MTCQ). However, about 30-40% of
 the species will face extinction risks, including a considerable number of
 endemic and Red-Listed species, and suitable habitat loss (LSH) will
 exceed 30%. Narrow-ranging species will be more likely to lose a larger
 percentage of their suitable habitats than wide-ranging species,
 highlighting their sensitivity to environmental changes. Importantly, it
 emerged that species turnover rates will increase linearly with ecological
 vulnerability at the grid level, indicating that community structure and
 species composition are easily affected by climate change in ecologically
 vulnerable areas. Therefore, biodiversity hotspots with high species
 richness in the southern study areas, as well as regions exhibiting both
 fast species turnover and significant ecological vulnerability, should be
 prioritized for conservation. These findings provide insights into how
 species composition and richness in plant communities vary with global
 climate change and provide effective ecological conservation and
 management strategies.
description: # Distribution range and richness of plant species are predicted to
 increase by 2100 due to a warmer and wetter climate in northern China.
 Dataset DOI: [10.5061/dryad.zpc866tmp](10.5061/dryad.zpc866tmp) ##
 Description of the data and file structure This dataset consists of a main
 folder, Datasets.zip, which contains three sub-folders, and descriptions
 of the files are mentioned in the README included within the folder.
 **DataS1**: Environmental data (climate and land cover) corresponding to
 grid cells in northern China and species occurrence data. Note: For
 species occurrence data, all geographic coordinates associated with these
 species have been generalized to protect sensitive plant species
 classified as Vulnerable, Critically Endangered, or Near Threatened
 according to the IUCN Red List. Specifically, latitude and longitude
 values have been rounded to one decimal place. This generalization was
 performed to minimize potential risks to species and comply with best
 practices for sharing sensitive biodiversity data (see GBIF guidelines:
 [https://www.gbif.org/resource/80512](https://www.gbif.org/resource/80512)). **DataS2**: Percentage of change and loss in species distribution ranges, as well as migration distance and direction, under future climate scenarios **DataS3**: Species richness and turnover rates corresponding to grid cells in northern China.