DOI: 10.3886/e210881v2
title: An Examination of Tuition Revenue Dependence as a Predictor of Master’s Program and Degree Completion Growth in the United States

description: Since the 1970s, master’s
degrees represent the fastest growing degree in the United States (U.S.).
Accordingly, there is a need for greater understanding of the factors that have
contributed to this sustained, upward trend. Guided by resource dependence
theory, we conducted hierarchical multiple linear regression analyses to
examine whether more than 1,000 non-profit U.S. institutions’ dependence on
tuition revenue (i.e., tuition revenue as a percentage of core revenues) is a
statistically significant predictor of the percentage change in the number of
master’s degree programs offered and master’s degree completions between 2005
and 2023. We found that tuition revenue does not make a statistically
significant contribution to the prediction of master’s programs offered and
master’s program completions. However, we found that Baccalaureate
Colleges and institutions with higher student-to-faculty ratios (i.e., fewer
faculty resources) were significantly more likely to experience increases in
master’s program offerings and completions, demonstrating that
institutional adaptation to financial pressures is complex and shaped by more
than tuition revenue generation alone. We conclude by discussing the
implications for institutional decision-making, importance of aligning the
supply and demand for master’s degrees, and directions for future research.<br>
description: Our sample<b> </b>includes
public and private non-profit institutions in the U.S. with a 2005 Basic
Carnegie Classification of Baccalaureate Colleges (Arts & Sciences, Diverse
Fields), Master’s Colleges and Universities (larger, medium, and smaller
programs), Doctoral/Research Universities, and Research Universities (high
research activity, very high research activity). These inclusion criteria
resulted in our initial sample of 1,513 institutions.

We excluded 37
institutions (2.4%) located in U.S. Territories. Using listwise deletion, we
removed 103 institutions (6.8%) for missing tuition revenue data and four military
academies (0.3%) that reported 0% of core revenues from tuition and fees.. We
removed 101 institutions (6.7%) for reporting zero graduate student enrollments
during the years of our data panel (2005-2023). We removed 17 institutions (1.1%)
for missing faculty resources data.

For RQ1, we
removed 192 institutions (12.7%) for missing Classification of Instructional
Program (CIP) code data preventing us from determining the number of master’s
degree programs offered. For RQ2, we removed 198 institutions (13.0%) with an undefined
percentage change in the number of master’s degree completions given that these
institutions reported zero master’s degrees completed in 2005.

We reviewed box plots for each of our outcome
variables to identify extreme univariate outliers. For RQ1, we removed four
cases (0.3%) with percentage increases in the number of master’s programs that
ranged from 2,500% to 5,500%. For RQ2, we removed three cases (0.2%) with
percentage increases in the number of master’s degree completions that ranged
from 10,850% to 20,788%. These procedures resulted in analytical samples of 1,055
institutions for RQ1 and 1,050 institutions for RQ2. Table 1 presents the
characteristics of the institutions in our analytical samples.
description: Public and private non-profit institutions with a 2005 Basic Carnegie Classification of Baccalaureate Colleges (Arts & Sciences, Diverse Fields), Master’s Colleges and Universities (larger, medium, and smaller programs), Doctoral/Research Universities, and Research Universities (high research activity, very high research activity).