DOI: 10.25349/d9c601
title: Value of information (VOI) for shellfish aquaculture in British Columbia

description: Shellfish aquaculture will play a critical role in meeting the growing
 demand for protein with low ecosystem impact and carbon intensity. Regions
 that have experienced inhibited growth in their shellfish aquaculture
 industries, such as British Columbia, must invest in technical and
 community-driven solutions to overcome industry barriers. A key barrier to
 British Columbia’s growth is environmental uncertainty, which impedes
 optimal farm management and increases the investment risk of shellfish
 farms. To reduce environmental uncertainty, shellfish operations around
 the world are investing in environmental monitoring and forecasting
 technologies to provide environmental information to farmers. These
 investments may signal that shellfish farmers value environmental
 information, but no efforts have been made to adequately measure this
 value. We developed a model to quantify the value of environmental
 information for shellfish farmers, which revealed that increasing
 variability of optimal management decisions and associated expected
 profits across future possible environmental conditions increased the
 value of information. Through conversations with farmers in British
 Columbia, we discovered that many non-environmental barriers hinder the
 growth of the shellfish industry, as well. We grouped these challenges
 into three general categories of logistic & economic, social
 & cultural, and regulatory & political. We found that
 potential solutions to overcoming non-environmental barriers include a
 shift toward cooperative style business models, investing in First
 Nation's capacity to support new ventures, and forging partnerships
 to enable community support. By identifying what makes information
 valuable, this project provides a tool for shellfish farmers to prioritize
 what environmental variables are worth forecasting while contributing to a
 deeper understanding of the challenges and experiences of shellfish
 growers in British Columbia.
description: Datasets were collected from the Farm Aquaculture Resource
 Management (FARM) model. This model is used to assess the “productivity,
 environmental effects, and profitability of shellfish aquaculture” by
 calculating anticipated shellfish growth under the following modifiable
 parameters: environmental conditions, stocking density, farm size, and the
 number of sections, species, and grow-out period. The FARM model was
 chosen for its widespread use in the aquaculture industry, comprehensive
 consideration of management decisions, and flexible data extraction
 interface (link: farmscale.org).  The dataset was
 collected using the following process: A. Each of the
 four environmental variables was assigned five possible levels, which we
 refer to as “scenarios”. The range of scenarios was selected to
 prioritize methodological clarity over exact accurate representation of
 conditions in B.C., but represent a reasonable range of values for these
 variables. B. The model was run for each of the five
 environmental variable scenarios while adjusting stocking density in
 increments of 50 ind/m^3 ranging from 50-999 ind/m^3. 
 After each iteration of the model, we extracted the Total Harvest
 (TPP). Note: When running the model for a single
 environmental variable across five scenarios, all other environmental
 variables were held constant at baseline values.  There
 was also a set of fixed variables that were kept constant under each
 iteration of the model running. After raw data extraction, we converted
 Total harvestable biomass (tons) to expected profits assuming an average
 $8.50CAD/lb conversion for mussels to further generate the distribution
 plots.