DOI: 10.5061/dryad.573n5tbfm
title: Data from: The potential for evolutionary rescue in an arctic seashore plant threatened by climate change

description: The impacts of climate change may be particularly severe for
 geographically isolated populations, which must adjust through plastic
 responses or evolve. Here, we study an endangered arctic plant, Primula
 nutans ssp. finmarchica, confined to Fennoscandian seashores and showing
 indications of maladaptation to a warming climate. We evaluate the
 potential of these populations to evolve to facilitate survival in the
 rapidly warming Arctic (i.e. evolutionary rescue) by utilizing manual
 crossing experiments in a nested half-sibling breeding design. We estimate
 G-matrices, evolvability, and genetic constraints in traits with
 potentially conflicting selection pressures. To explicitly evaluate the
 potential for climate change adaptation, we infer the expected time to
 evolve from a northern to a southern phenotype under different selection
 scenarios, using demographic and climatic data to relate expected
 evolutionary rates to projected rates of climate change. Our results
 indicate that, given the nearly ten-fold greater evolvability of
 vegetative than of floral traits, adaptation in these traits may take
 place nearly in concert with changing climate, given effective climate
 mitigation. However, the comparatively slow expected evolutionary
 modification of floral traits may hamper the evolution of floral traits to
 track climate-induced changes in the pollination environment, compromising
 sexual reproduction and thus reducing the likelihood of evolutionary
 rescue.
description: Trait data of <em>Primula nutans</em> ssp.
 <em>finmarchica</em> common-garden cultivated plant
 individuals, both of parental (P) generation collected from the field in
 northern Finland (southern populations: populations B and E) and Norway
 (northern population: population G), and of F1 generation which are
 offspring of manual crossings of P generation according to a nested
 half-sibling/full-sibling crossing design.
description: # **Data and analysis code for journal article "The potential for
 evolutionary rescue in an arctic seashore plant threatened by climate
 change"** Access this dataset on Dryad:
 [https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.573n5tbfm](https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.573n5tbfm) This dataset is associated with the research paper: Mattila ALK*, Opedal ØH*, Hällfors MH, Pietikäinen L, Koivusaari SHM, Hyvärinen M-T *(*Authors share equal contribution*). 2024. The potential for evolutionary rescue in an arctic seashore plant threatened by climate change. *Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences*. doi:10.1098/rspb.2024.1351 We studied the evolutionary potential of an endangered arctic seashore perennial herb, the Fennoscandian subspecies of the Siberian primrose (*Primula nutans* ssp. *finmarchica* (Jacq.) Á. Löve & D.). This species has a disjunct distribution, with the northern variety (var. *finmarchica*) limited by the Arctic Sea in Norway and the southern variety (var. *jokelae* L. Mäkinen & Y. Mäkinen) isolated from suitable habitat at the shores of the Bothnian Bay in Finland. Using seed material collected from two southern populations (B and E) and two northern populations (G and I, of which I failed to germinate and was thus not included in the analysis), the parental generation (P generation) was cultivated in the greenhouse, and we made manual crosses according to a nested half-sibling/full-sibling crossing design, where one designated sire from each maternal family was crossed with 1-6 randomly chosen dams from different maternal families within the same population. These crosses resulted in a nested full-sibling (offspring of each dam)/half-sibling (offspring of each sire) pedigree structure in the offspring, i.e. the F1 generation. *Primula nutans* is distylous (has two distinct floral morphs) and within-morph incompatible. Therefore, “pin” (long-styled) sires were crossed with “thrum” (short-styled) dams, and vice versa. Following, F1 generation individuals resulting from these crosses were cultivated in a shadehouse. Trait measurements of a suite of vegetative and flowering traits were recorded from both the P and F1 generations. These pedigree-based trait data were then used in a quantitative-genetic analysis framework to estimate a genetic variance matrix (G-matrix) and evolvabilities, by fitting a multivariate animal model incorporating the pedigree structure. **Description of the data and file structure** Included are two datasets containing individual-based data of the *Primula nutans* ssp. *finmarchica* study individuals (i.e. each row represents one unique study individual), including identifying, population origin and family data, as well as the recorded trait measurements, separately for the parental generation (in datafile “Primula_P_data.csv”) and the nested half-sibling/full-sibling offspring generation resulting from crossing the parental generation individuals (in datafile “Primula_F1_data.csv”). Each offspring individual (i.e. each row) in datafile “Primula_F1_data.csv “ is associated with the identifying information of its dam and sire, associated with respective individuals in dataset “Primula_P_data”. Both data files are accompanied with a metadata file explaining each column included in the respective data file: “Primula_P_metadata.xlsx” and “Primula_F1_metadata.xlsx”. Descriptions of explanatory variables are also given below. Explanatory variables of data file "Primula P data": | Explanatory variables of data file "Primula\_P\_data" | **Description** | | :---------------------------------------------------- | :-------------------------------------------------------------------- | | population | Name of Primula nutans population: B/E/G | | mother | Identifier number of mother individual | | seed | Identifier number of seed individual of respective mother | | flowered | whether individual flowered = 1 | | FlowDay | Day of date first open flower observed | | FlowMonth | Month of date first open flower observed | | FlowYear | Year of date first open flower observed | | morph | Flower morph: T = thrum, P = pin | | comments | comments about plant individual | | Measurement\_day | Day of date trait measurements recorded | | Measurement\_month | Month of date trait measurements recorded | | Measurement\_year | Year of date trait measurements recorded | | Rosette\_size\_mm | Width of leaf rosette (mm) at widest point | | Leaf\_length\_mm | Length of largest leaf (mm) at widest point | | Leaf\_width\_mm | Width of largest leaf (mm) at widest point | | Inflorescence\_height\_mm | Height (mm) of inflorescence from root level to tip of topmost flower | | flowers\_all | Total number of flowers, including buds, open and wilted flowers | | flowers\_bud | Bud count | | flowers\_open | Open flower count | | flowers\_wilted | Wilted flower count | | corolla1\_mm | Diameter (mm) of flower1 at the widest point | | corolla2\_mm | Diameter (mm) of flower2 at the widest point | | corolla3\_mm | Diameter (mm) of flower3 at the widest point | | notes | Notes about plant individual | Explanatory variables of data file "Primula F1 data": | Explanatory variables of data file "Primula F1 data" | **Description** | | :--------------------------------------------------- | :------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | | Species | Name of species: Primula nutans | | Generation | Generation of individual in pedigree (F1: F1 generation=offspring generation 1) | | Mother\_Identifier | Mother plant code: Population-Family-Seedling individual | | Mother\_Population | Population where mother originates from (B/E) | | Mother\_Family | Family of mother (family=seeds collected from same plant individual) | | Mother\_Seedling\_Ind | Mother Seedling Individual | | Father\_Identifier | Father plant code: Population-Family-Seedling individual | | Father\_Population | Population where father originates from (B/E) | | Father\_Family | Family of father (family=seeds collected from same plant individual) | | Father\_Seedling\_Ind | Father Seedling Individual | | Sowing\_date | Date seed sown (yyyymmdd) | | Individual | Identifier number of plant individual within dataset Primula F1 data | | Germination\_date | Date when seed germination detected (yyyymmdd) | | Flowering | Whether plant individual developed any flowers during the length of the experiment (yes/no) | | First\_flower\_date | Date when first open flower detected (yyyymmdd) | | Phenotypic\_measurements\_date | Date (yyyymmdd) when phenotypic measurements taken at flowering stage (usually with at least two flowers open, but see "Phenotypic\_measurements\_without\_two\_flowers\_open") or similar vegetative stage if plant individual did not flower or flowers were damaged before opening | | Rosette\_diameter\_mm | Leaf rosette diameter (mm) at flowering life stage. Diameter at the widest point, viewed from above plant. | | Leaf\_length\_mm | Length (mm) of the largest leaf at the longest point at flowering life stage | | Leaf\_width\_mm | Width (mm) of the largest leaf at the widest point at flowering life stage | | Leaf\_no | The total number of leaves of the main rosette at flowering life stage (the number must be corrected for individuals from which fungal-infected leaves were removed before measurement: if "measured before structures first removal"=no | | Runner\_no | The total number of runners (i.e. extra branches branching out from the main rosette) at flowering life stage | | Inflorescence\_height\_cm | The height of the tallest inflorescence at flowering life stage, measured from the leaf rosette to the top of the flowers | | Bud\_no | The total number of buds at flowering life stage | | Flower\_no | The total number of open flowers at flowering life stage | | Withered\_no | The total number of withered flowers at flowering life stage | | Damaged\_flower\_no | The total number of damaged flowers at flowering life stage (flowers were damaged due to unsuitable environmental conditions, pests or disease before they could be measured)  | | Damaged\_buds\_no | The total number of damaged buds at flowering life stage (developed into buds but never into open flowers, due to unsuitable environmental conditions, pests or disease)  | | Buds\_side\_stems\_no | The total number of buds on runners at flowering life stage | | Damaged\_buds\_side\_stems | The total number of buds on runners at flowering life stage, damaged due to unsuitable environmental conditions, pests or disease | | Flower\_measurements\_date | Date (yyyymmdd) when flower measurements (flower diameter, flower morph, anther and stigma length) taken | | Corolla1\_diameter\_mm | Diameter (mm) of flower1 at the widest point | | Corolla2\_diameter\_mm | Diameter (mm) of flower2 at the widest point | | Corolla3\_diameter\_mm | Diameter (mm) of flower3 at the widest point | | Anthers1\_length\_mm | Length (mm) of anthers of flower1 | | Stigma1\_length\_mm | Length (mm) of stigma of flower1 | | Anthers2\_length\_mm | Length (mm) of anthers of flower2 | | Stigma2\_length\_mm | Length (mm) of stigma of flower2 | | Flower\_morph | Flower morph (pin/thrum) | **Sharing/Access information** The data is not published elsewhere. **Code/Software** Script for running the analysis and producing the figures described in the associated research paper, using the included datasets “Primula_P_data” and “Primula_F1_data”, is also made available: “Primrose_evolutionary_potential_ANALYSIS_CODE.R”. The script includes annotations where relevant. All analyses using this script were performed using R Statistical Software (v4.2.0; R Core Team 2021), and requires the upload of R packages: “*evolvability*”, ”*plyr*”, ”*reshape2*”, ”*MCMCglmm*”, ”*lme4*”, ”*kinship2*”, ”*ggplot2*”, ”*dplyr*”, ”*tidyr*”, ”*stringr*”, ”*cowplot*”, ”*lubridate*” and ”*MasterBayes*”.