DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.7198430
title: NGFS Climate Scenarios Data Set

description: Download information

Please do not request a data download here.

Rather, the data is available for download at the NGFS Scenario Explorer under this download link: https://data.ece.iiasa.ac.at/ngfs-phase-3/#/downloads.

The license permits use of the scenario ensemble for scientific research and commercial use, but restricts redistribution of substantial parts of the data. Please refer to the FAQ and legal code for more information.

3.4 (14 October 2022)

Correction notice:

In the previous version of the NGFS Phase 3 data set, V3.3 (10.5281/zenodo.7181161), the updates for the NiGEM model were not included due to a processing error. This has been rectified is this version.

The rest of the updates mentioned in V3.3 were included correctly.



NiGEM:



Removed incorrect "index; 2017=100" from NiGEM units. Units affected are:



"index; 2017=100 US$ per barrel" corrected to "US$ per barrel"

"index; 2017=100 US$ per barrel(equiv)" corrected to "US$ per barrel(equiv)"

"% difference, index; 2017=100 US$ per barrel" corrected to "% difference, US$ per barrel"

"% difference, index; 2017=100 US$ per barrel(equiv)" corrected to "% difference, US$ per barrel(equiv)"



Transition effects now refer to the combined carbon pricing and recycling shocks rather than the carbon price only.

Transition effects have been removed for "Current Policies" which only experiences chronic physical impacts (no carbon pricing under current policies).

Combined effects now equal transition + physical.

A further combined data row has been added to the disorderly scenarios ("Delayed transition", "Divergent Net Zero") to show the output of an additional business confidence shock applied to the combined shock (see scenario description). These data are denoted by the "|Combined plus business confidence" suffix in the variable name.

Acute physical risk data have been added for the scenarios "Delayed transition", "Current Policies", "Net Zero 2050" for the world level. As these data are model independent, they have been added under "NiGEM NGFS v1.22" only (without any input model information).

Country specific currency information for units labelled as "local currency" has been added to the downloadable data under the "unit" column. It is added as a suffix e.g. "2017 prices; local currency ( US$ Bn)", when before it was "2017 prices; local currency ( US$ Bn)".

NiGEM baseline data previously did not carry the "NiGEM|" prefix in the variable name. This has been added now.



Downscaling:



Added the variable "Emissions|CO2|Industrial Processes" for all downscaled model results.




About the data set

This dataset contains a set of climate scenario that have been developed for the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS). The NGFS is a group of 83 central banks and supervisors and 12 observers committed to sharing best practices, contributing to the development of climate– and environment–related risk management in the financial sector and mobilising mainstream finance to support the transition toward a sustainable economy.

The scenarios in this dataset were produced by NGFS Workstream 3 in partnership with an academic consortium from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), University of Maryland (UMD), Climate Analytics (CA), the Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich (ETH) and the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR).

The Phase 3 bespoke scenarios are generated by state-of-the-art well-established integrated assessment models (IAMs), namely GCAM, MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM and REMIND-MAgPIE. These models allow the estimation of global and regional mitigation costs, the analysis of energy system transition characteristics, the quantification of investments required to transform the energy system, and the identification of synergies and trade-off of sustainable development pathways.

Technical documentation is available to help users access the datasets. The documentation describes the models and variables, as well as provides detailed guidance for database users. Scenario presentation materials and the user guide are also available at the NGFS portal.
description: This work was made possible by grants from Bloomberg Philanthropies and ClimateWorks Foundation.