cometadata/datacite-titles-descriptions-related-identifiers huggingface dataset:
DOI: 10.3886/e112960
title: Replication data for: Fiscal Foundations of Inflation: Imperfect Knowledge

description: This paper proposes a theory of the fiscal foundations of inflation based on imperfect knowledge and learning. Because imperfect knowledge breaks Ricardian equivalence, the scale and composition of the public debt matter for inflation. High and moderate duration debt generates wealth effects on consumption demand that impairs the intertemporal substitution channel of monetary policy: aggressive monetary policy is required to anchor inflation expectations. Counterfactual experiments conducted in an estimated model reveal that the US economy would have been substantially more volatile over the Great Inflation and Great Moderation periods if US debt levels had been those observed in Italy or Japan.
DOI: 10.3886/e112960v1
title: Replication data for: Fiscal Foundations of Inflation: Imperfect Knowledge

description: This paper proposes a theory of the fiscal foundations of inflation based on imperfect knowledge and learning. Because imperfect knowledge breaks Ricardian equivalence, the scale and composition of the public debt matter for inflation. High and moderate duration debt generates wealth effects on consumption demand that impairs the intertemporal substitution channel of monetary policy: aggressive monetary policy is required to anchor inflation expectations. Counterfactual experiments conducted in an estimated model reveal that the US economy would have been substantially more volatile over the Great Inflation and Great Moderation periods if US debt levels had been those observed in Italy or Japan.
DOI: 10.3886/e113188
title: Replication data for: News or Noise? The Missing Link

description: The literature on belief-driven business cycles treats news and noise as distinct representations of agents' beliefs. We prove they are empirically the same. Our result lets us isolate the importance of purely belief-driven fluctuations. Using three prominent estimated models, we show that existing research understates the importance of pure beliefs. We also explain how differences in both economic environment and information structure affect the estimated importance of pure beliefs.
DOI: 10.3886/e113188v1
title: Replication data for: News or Noise? The Missing Link

description: The literature on belief-driven business cycles treats news and noise as distinct representations of agents' beliefs. We prove they are empirically the same. Our result lets us isolate the importance of purely belief-driven fluctuations. Using three prominent estimated models, we show that existing research understates the importance of pure beliefs. We also explain how differences in both economic environment and information structure affect the estimated importance of pure beliefs.
DOI: 10.3886/e113189
title: Replication data for: Media Bias in China

description: This paper examines whether and how market competition affected the political bias of government-owned newspapers in China from 1981 to 2011. We measure media bias based on coverage of government mouthpiece content (propaganda) relative to commercial content. We first find that a reform that forced newspaper exits (reduced competition) affected media bias by increasing product specialization, with some papers focusing on propaganda and others on commercial content. Second, lower-level governments produce less-biased content and launch commercial newspapers earlier, eroding higher-level governments' political goals. Third, bottom-up competition intensifies the politico-economic tradeoff, leading to product proliferation and less audience exposure to propaganda.
DOI: 10.3886/e113189v1
title: Replication data for: Media Bias in China

description: This paper examines whether and how market competition affected the political bias of government-owned newspapers in China from 1981 to 2011. We measure media bias based on coverage of government mouthpiece content (propaganda) relative to commercial content. We first find that a reform that forced newspaper exits (reduced competition) affected media bias by increasing product specialization, with some papers focusing on propaganda and others on commercial content. Second, lower-level governments produce less-biased content and launch commercial newspapers earlier, eroding higher-level governments' political goals. Third, bottom-up competition intensifies the politico-economic tradeoff, leading to product proliferation and less audience exposure to propaganda.
DOI: 10.3886/e112737
title: Replication data for: Time to Build and Fluctuations in Bulk Shipping

description: This paper explores the nature of fluctuations in world bulk shipping by quantifying the impact of time to build and demand uncertainty on investment and prices. We examine the impact of both construction lags and their lengthening in periods of high investment activity, by constructing a dynamic model of ship entry and exit. A rich dataset of secondhand ship sales allows for a new estimation strategy: resale prices provide direct information on value functions and allow their nonparametric estimation. We find that moving from time-varying to constant to no time to build reduces prices, while significantly increasing both the level and volatility of investment.
DOI: 10.3886/e112738
title: Replication data for: Are Private Markets and Filtering a Viable Source of Low-Income Housing? Estimates from a "Repeat Income" Model

description: While filtering has long been considered the primary mechanism by which markets supply low-income housing, direct estimates of that process have been absent. This has contributed to doubts about the viability of markets and to misplaced policy. I fill this gap by estimating a "repeat income" model using 1985-2011 panel data. Real annual filtering rates are faster for rental housing (2.5 percent) than owner-occupied (0.5 percent), vary inversely with the income elasticity of demand and house price inflation, and are sensitive to tenure transitions as homes age. For most locations, filtering is robust which lends support for housing voucher programs.
DOI: 10.3886/e112738v1
title: Replication data for: Are Private Markets and Filtering a Viable Source of Low-Income Housing? Estimates from a "Repeat Income" Model

description: While filtering has long been considered the primary mechanism by which markets supply low-income housing, direct estimates of that process have been absent. This has contributed to doubts about the viability of markets and to misplaced policy. I fill this gap by estimating a "repeat income" model using 1985-2011 panel data. Real annual filtering rates are faster for rental housing (2.5 percent) than owner-occupied (0.5 percent), vary inversely with the income elasticity of demand and house price inflation, and are sensitive to tenure transitions as homes age. For most locations, filtering is robust which lends support for housing voucher programs.
DOI: 10.3886/e112739
title: Replication data for: Income and Democracy: Comment

description: Acemoglu et al. (2008) document that the correlation between income per capita and democracy disappears when including time and country fixed effects. While their results are robust for the full sample, we find evidence for significant but heterogeneous effects of income on democracy: negative for former colonies, but positive for non-colonies. Within the sample of colonies we detect heterogeneous effects related to colonial history and early institutions. The zero mean effect estimated by Acemoglu et al. (2008) is consistent with effects of opposite signs in the different subsamples. Our findings are robust to the use of alternative data and estimation techniques.
DOI: 10.3886/e112739v1
title: Replication data for: Income and Democracy: Comment

description: Acemoglu et al. (2008) document that the correlation between income per capita and democracy disappears when including time and country fixed effects. While their results are robust for the full sample, we find evidence for significant but heterogeneous effects of income on democracy: negative for former colonies, but positive for non-colonies. Within the sample of colonies we detect heterogeneous effects related to colonial history and early institutions. The zero mean effect estimated by Acemoglu et al. (2008) is consistent with effects of opposite signs in the different subsamples. Our findings are robust to the use of alternative data and estimation techniques.
DOI: 10.3886/e112740
title: Replication data for: Do Employers Use Unemployment as a Sorting Criterion When Hiring? Evidence from a Field Experiment

description: The stigma associated with long-term unemployment spells could create large inefficiencies in labor markets. While the existing literature points toward large stigma effects, it has proven difficult to estimate causal relationships. Using data from a field experiment, we find that long-term unemployment spells in the past do not matter for employers' hiring decisions, suggesting that subsequent work experience eliminate this negative signal. Nor do employers treat contemporary short-term unemployment spells differently, suggesting that they understand that worker/firm matching takes time. However, employers attach a negative value to contemporary unemployment spells lasting at least nine months, providing evidence of stigma effects.
DOI: 10.3886/e112740v1
title: Replication data for: Do Employers Use Unemployment as a Sorting Criterion When Hiring? Evidence from a Field Experiment

description: The stigma associated with long-term unemployment spells could create large inefficiencies in labor markets. While the existing literature points toward large stigma effects, it has proven difficult to estimate causal relationships. Using data from a field experiment, we find that long-term unemployment spells in the past do not matter for employers' hiring decisions, suggesting that subsequent work experience eliminate this negative signal. Nor do employers treat contemporary short-term unemployment spells differently, suggesting that they understand that worker/firm matching takes time. However, employers attach a negative value to contemporary unemployment spells lasting at least nine months, providing evidence of stigma effects.
DOI: 10.3886/e112741v1
title: Replication data for: Does Money Illusion Matter? Comment

description: This paper experimentally investigates whether money illusion generates substantial nominal inertia. Building on the design of Fehr and Tyran (2001), we find no evidence that agents choose high nominal payoffs over high real payoffs. However, participants do select prices associated with high nominal payoffs within a set of maximum real payoffs as a heuristic to simplify their decision task. The cognitive challenge of this task explains the majority of the magnitude of nominal inertia; money illusion exerts only a second-order effect. The duration of nominal inertia depends primarily on participants' best response functions, not the prevalence of money illusion.
DOI: 10.3886/e112961
title: Replication data for: Betting on Secession: Quantifying Political Events Surrounding Slavery and the Civil War

description: Lincoln's election produced Southern secession, war, and abolition. Using a new dataset on slave sales, we examine connections between news and slave prices for the period 1856-1861. By August 1861, slave prices had declined by roughly one-third from their 1860 peak. That decline was similar for all age and sex cohorts and thus did not reflect expected emancipation without compensation. The decision to secede reflected beliefs that the North would not invade and that emancipation without compensation was unlikely. Both were encouraged by Lincoln's conciliatory tone before the attack on Fort Sumter, and subsequently dashed by Lincoln's willingness to wage all-out war. (JEL D72, D74, D83, G14, H77, N31, N41)
DOI: 10.3886/e112961v1
title: Replication data for: Betting on Secession: Quantifying Political Events Surrounding Slavery and the Civil War

description: Lincoln's election produced Southern secession, war, and abolition. Using a new dataset on slave sales, we examine connections between news and slave prices for the period 1856-1861. By August 1861, slave prices had declined by roughly one-third from their 1860 peak. That decline was similar for all age and sex cohorts and thus did not reflect expected emancipation without compensation. The decision to secede reflected beliefs that the North would not invade and that emancipation without compensation was unlikely. Both were encouraged by Lincoln's conciliatory tone before the attack on Fort Sumter, and subsequently dashed by Lincoln's willingness to wage all-out war. (JEL D72, D74, D83, G14, H77, N31, N41)
DOI: 10.3886/e113190
title: Replication data for: Elite Colleges and Upward Mobility to Top Jobs and Top Incomes

description: This paper asks whether elite colleges help students outside of historically advantaged groups reach top positions in the economy. I combine administrative data on income and leadership teams at publicly traded firms with a regression discontinuity design based on admissions rules at elite business-focused degree programs in Chile. The 1.8% of college students admitted to these programs account for 41% of leadership positions and 39% of top 0.1% incomes. Admission raises the number of leadership positions students hold by 44% and their probability of attaining a top 0.1% income by 51%. However, these gains are driven by male applicants from high-tuition private high schools, with zero effects for female students or students from other school types with similar admissions test scores. Admissions effects are equal to 38% of the gap in rates of top attainment by gender and 54% of the gap by high school background for male students. A difference-in-differences analysis of the rates at which pairs of students lead the same firms suggests that peer ties formed between college classmates from similar backgrounds may play an important role in driving the observed effects.
DOI: 10.3886/e113190v1
title: Replication data for: Elite Colleges and Upward Mobility to Top Jobs and Top Incomes

description: This paper asks whether elite colleges help students outside of historically advantaged groups reach top positions in the economy. I combine administrative data on income and leadership teams at publicly traded firms with a regression discontinuity design based on admissions rules at elite business-focused degree programs in Chile. The 1.8% of college students admitted to these programs account for 41% of leadership positions and 39% of top 0.1% incomes. Admission raises the number of leadership positions students hold by 44% and their probability of attaining a top 0.1% income by 51%. However, these gains are driven by male applicants from high-tuition private high schools, with zero effects for female students or students from other school types with similar admissions test scores. Admissions effects are equal to 38% of the gap in rates of top attainment by gender and 54% of the gap by high school background for male students. A difference-in-differences analysis of the rates at which pairs of students lead the same firms suggests that peer ties formed between college classmates from similar backgrounds may play an important role in driving the observed effects.
DOI: 10.3886/e113191
title: Replication data for: Optimal Trend Inflation

description: Sticky price models featuring heterogeneous firms and systematic firm-level productivity trends deliver radically different predictions for the optimal inflation rate than their popular homogenous-firm counterparts: (i) the optimal steady-state inflation rate generically differs from zero and (ii) inflation optimally responds to productivity disturbances. We show this by aggregating a heterogeneous-firm model with sticky prices in closed form. Using firm-level data from the US Census Bureau, we estimate the historically optimal inflation path for the US economy: the optimal inflation rate ranges between 1 percent and 3 percent per year and displays a downward trend over the period 1977–2015.
DOI: 10.3886/e113191v1
title: Replication data for: Optimal Trend Inflation

description: Sticky price models featuring heterogeneous firms and systematic firm-level productivity trends deliver radically different predictions for the optimal inflation rate than their popular homogenous-firm counterparts: (i) the optimal steady-state inflation rate generically differs from zero and (ii) inflation optimally responds to productivity disturbances. We show this by aggregating a heterogeneous-firm model with sticky prices in closed form. Using firm-level data from the US Census Bureau, we estimate the historically optimal inflation path for the US economy: the optimal inflation rate ranges between 1 percent and 3 percent per year and displays a downward trend over the period 1977–2015.
DOI: 10.3886/e112741
title: Replication data for: Does Money Illusion Matter? Comment

description: This paper experimentally investigates whether money illusion generates substantial nominal inertia. Building on the design of Fehr and Tyran (2001), we find no evidence that agents choose high nominal payoffs over high real payoffs. However, participants do select prices associated with high nominal payoffs within a set of maximum real payoffs as a heuristic to simplify their decision task. The cognitive challenge of this task explains the majority of the magnitude of nominal inertia; money illusion exerts only a second-order effect. The duration of nominal inertia depends primarily on participants' best response functions, not the prevalence of money illusion.
DOI: 10.3886/e112742
title: Replication data for: Does Money Illusion Matter? Reply

description: The data in Fehr and Tyran (FT, 2001) and Luba Petersen and Abel Winn (PW,2013) show that money illusion plays an important role in nominal price adjustment after a fully anticipated negative monetary shock. Money Illusion affects subjects' expectations, and causes pronounced nominal inertia after a negative shock but much less inertia after a positive shock. Thus PW provide a misleading interpretation both of our and their own data.
DOI: 10.3886/e112742v1
title: Replication data for: Does Money Illusion Matter? Reply

description: The data in Fehr and Tyran (FT, 2001) and Luba Petersen and Abel Winn (PW,2013) show that money illusion plays an important role in nominal price adjustment after a fully anticipated negative monetary shock. Money Illusion affects subjects' expectations, and causes pronounced nominal inertia after a negative shock but much less inertia after a positive shock. Thus PW provide a misleading interpretation both of our and their own data.
DOI: 10.3886/e112743
title: Replication data for: The Dynamic Behavior of the Real Exchange Rate in Sticky Price Models: Comment

description: In an article published in the American Economic Review, Jón Steinsson (2008) argues that two sticky price models driven by real shocks can explain the observed persistence, volatility and hump-shaped impulse response function of the real exchange rate. This comment shows, first, that correcting an error in one of Steinsson's models leads to substantially lower persistence and volatility of the real exchange rate; second, that Steinsson's models cannot match real exchange rate volatility relative to output; and, third, that reasonable variations of the model calibration or specification all lead to lower real exchange rate persistence and volatility (or both).
DOI: 10.3886/e112743v1
title: Replication data for: The Dynamic Behavior of the Real Exchange Rate in Sticky Price Models: Comment

description: In an article published in the American Economic Review, Jón Steinsson (2008) argues that two sticky price models driven by real shocks can explain the observed persistence, volatility and hump-shaped impulse response function of the real exchange rate. This comment shows, first, that correcting an error in one of Steinsson's models leads to substantially lower persistence and volatility of the real exchange rate; second, that Steinsson's models cannot match real exchange rate volatility relative to output; and, third, that reasonable variations of the model calibration or specification all lead to lower real exchange rate persistence and volatility (or both).
DOI: 10.3886/e112744
title: Replication data for: Fiscal Stimulus in a Monetary Union: Evidence from US Regions

description: We use rich historical data on military procurement to estimate the effects of government spending. We exploit regional variation in military build-ups to estimate an "open economy relative multiplier" of approximately 1.5. We develop a framework for interpreting this estimate and relating it to estimates of the standard closed economy aggregate multiplier. The latter is highly sensitive to how strongly aggregate monetary and tax policy "leans against the wind." Our open economy relative multiplier "differences out" these effects because monetary and tax policies are uniform across the nation. Our evidence indicates that demand shocks can have large effects on output.
DOI: 10.3886/e112744v1
title: Replication data for: Fiscal Stimulus in a Monetary Union: Evidence from US Regions

description: We use rich historical data on military procurement to estimate the effects of government spending. We exploit regional variation in military build-ups to estimate an "open economy relative multiplier" of approximately 1.5. We develop a framework for interpreting this estimate and relating it to estimates of the standard closed economy aggregate multiplier. The latter is highly sensitive to how strongly aggregate monetary and tax policy "leans against the wind." Our open economy relative multiplier "differences out" these effects because monetary and tax policies are uniform across the nation. Our evidence indicates that demand shocks can have large effects on output.
DOI: 10.3886/e112745v1
title: Replication data for: Trade Adjustment and Productivity in Large Crises

description: We empirically characterize the mechanics of trade adjustment during the Argentine crisis. Though imports collapsed by 70 percent from 2000-2002, the entry and exit of firms or products at the country level played a small role. The within-firm churning of imported inputs, however, played a sizeable role. We build a model of trade in intermediate inputs with heterogeneous firms, fixed import costs, and roundabout production. Import demand is non-homothetic and the implications of an import price shock depend on the full distribution of firm-level adjustments. An import price shock generates a significant decline in productivity.
DOI: 10.3886/e113193v1
title: Replication data for: Consumer Price Search and Platform Design in Internet Commerce

description: The platform design, the process that helps potential buyers on the internet navigate toward products they may purchase, plays a critical role in reducing search frictions and determining market outcomes. We study a key trade-off associated with two important roles of efficient platform design: guiding consumers to their most desired product while also strengthening seller incentives to lower prices. We use simple theory to illustrate this, and then combine detailed browsing data from eBay and an equilibrium model of consumer search and price competition to quantitatively assess this trade-off in the particular context of a change in eBay's marketplace design.