DOI: 10.3886/icpsr38918
title: The Mobilization Puzzle: How Individual, Group, and Situational Dynamics Produce Extremist Outcomes, United States, 1974-2021
title: Archival Version

description: Current research that seeks to inform terrorism prevention, intervention, and interdiction efforts has been hampered by at least three problems: the lack of adequate control groups, a tendency to conceptually conflate radicalization with mobilization, and a preponderance of research designs that only include data on the perpetrator or the event, but not both. This project addresses these shortcomings by collecting data that includes control groups consisting of non-violent offenders, non-mobilized ideologues, and unsuccessful terrorists, and by modeling mobilization as the interaction between individual characteristics, social networks, and event-level situational opportunities for action. The integrated approach of this research isolates the interactive factors that distinguish violent from nonviolent offenders, identifies the individual, network, and event-level variables that are significantly related to extremist mobilization, and determines which law enforcement interdiction strategies are most likely to succeed in stopping terrorist attacks. This research expands on the NIJ-funded Profiles of Individual Radicalization in the United States (PIRUS) and Social Networks of American Radicals (SoNAR) datasets to include event-level information on more than 1,400 United States-based extremist plots and financial crimes from 1974-2021. These event data can be linked to data on the individuals and networks contained in the PIRUS and SoNAR datasets, respectively, in order to build a fully relational database on radicalization characteristics, social-network dynamics, and event-level details and outcomes. Data collection used open-sources, including media reports, unsealed court documents, unclassified government reports, and other open-source archived content. To strengthen the reliability and validity of the analyses, at least 25% of the data were double coded, and the project team dedicated the last phase of data collection to conduct rigorous quality control. To analyze these data, the project team used three methods: descriptive and bivariate analyses, advanced regression methods with regularization, and multi-step configurational methods on a subset of 50 event cases. These data are currently available as an Excel workbook. The "Plots" sheet contains data on premeditated violent and non-violent crimes. The "Financial Crimes" sheet contains data on financial crimes only. Please refer to the ICPSR README for more information.
description: The purpose of this study was to examine successful, failed, and foiled extremist plots in the United States to understand how mobilization is related to factors at the individual perpetrator, social network, and event levels.
description: Data collection used open-sources, including media reports, unsealed court documents, unclassified government reports, and other open-source archived content. Analytic data were structured and analyzed at the plot (event) level. To strengthen the reliability and validity of the analyses, at least 25% of the data were double coded, and the project team dedicated the last phase of data collection to conduct rigorous quality control. To analyze these data, the project team used three methods: descriptive and bivariate analyses, advanced regression methods with regularization, and multi-step configurational methods on a subset of 50 event cases.
description: The following items are included for each event: Dates for plot start and conclusion Number of individuals involved, with ID numbers for other individuals involved or coordinated plots Type of plot (non-violent, low casualty, mass casualty) Plot and target location (state, city, corporation/individuals targeted, hard vs. soft target) Attack or financial crime type Type of weapons used or intended to be used Number of fatalities and wounded Preparatory actions taken by the perpetrator Suspicious activity noted by others If the plot was successful, foiled, or failed, and reasons why If applicable, whether other actors were involved or aware of the plot (e.g., law enforcement, informants, undercover agents, citizens) If the plot resulted in a raid, criminal charges, and/or convictions Please refer to the P.I. codebooks for operational definitions used throughout the study.
description: Not applicable.
description: Response Rates: Not applicable.
description: Presence of Common Scales: Not applicable.
description: Only plots occurring in the United States were included. Premeditated violent and non-violent plots, including financial crimes, were included. Exclusion criteria for plot data were foreign fighter travel, international plots involving U.S. persons, and vandalism. To be considered for inclusion as a financial crime/scheme, the crime must have involved illegal financial activity, an individual within the scheme must have been charged with a crime related to the financial activity, and the financial crime must have been ideologically motivated.
description: Datasets: DS1: The Mobilization Puzzle: How Individual, Group, and Situational Dynamics Produce Extremist Outcomes, United States, 1974-2021
description: Premeditated terrorist plots and financial crimes linked to the subjects included in the Profiles of Individual Radicalization in the United States (PIRUS) dataset. Smallest Geographic Unit: City
description: record abstractsFor more information on the Profiles of Individual Radicalization in the United States (PIRUS) dataset, including how to access data and documentation, please visit the project website hosted by the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START).