DOI: 10.5061/dryad.bcc2fqzmx
title: Data from: Climatically robust multi-scale species distribution models to support pronghorn recovery in California

description: We combined two climate-based distribution models with three finer-scale
 suitability models to identify habitat for pronghorn recovery in
 California now and into the future. Location: California, United
 States  Methods: We used a consensus approach to identify areas
 of suitable climate now (1980-2010) and future (2031-2060) for pronghorn
 in California. We compared the results of models from two separate
 hypotheses about their historical ecology in the state, specifically the
 migration hypothesis and the niche reduction hypothesis. We combined
 occurrences from GPS collars distributed across three populations of
 pronghorn in the state to create three distinct habitat models: (1) an
 ensemble model using Random Forests, Maxent, Classification and Regression
 Trees, and a Generalized Linear Model; (2) a step selection function; and
 (3) an expert-driven model. We evaluated consensus among both the climate
 models and the suitability models to prioritize areas for, and evaluate
 the prospects of, pronghorn recovery.  Results: Climate
 suitability for pronghorn in the future depends heavily on model
 assumptions. Under the migration hypothesis, our model predicted that
 there will be on suitable climate in California in the future. Under the
 niche reduction hypothesis, by contrast, suitable climate will expand.
 Habitat also depended on the methods used, but areas of consensus among
 all three exist in large patches throughout the state. Main Conclusions:
 Identifying habitat for a species which has undergone extreme range
 collapse, and which has very fine scale habitat needs, presents novel
 challenges for spatial ecologists. Our multi-method, multi-hypothesis
 approach can allow habitat modelers to identify areas of consensus and,
 perhaps more importantly, critical knowledge gaps that could resolve
 disagreements among the models. For pronghorn, a better understanding of
 their upper thermal tolerances and whether historical populations migrated
 will be crucial to their potential recovery in California and throughout
 the arid Southwest.
description: # Climatically robust multi-scale species distribution models to support
 pronghorn recovery in California
 [https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.bcc2fqzmx](https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.bcc2fqzmx) Data include raw pronghorn locations and environmental predictors to generate distribution and habitat models, and the outputs of these models. ## Description of the data and file structure Data are of three kinds: 1. Pronghorn locations ("all_gbif pronghorn.csv"), downloaded from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (Supplemental information on Zenodo) 2. Environmental predictors used to generate habitat or climate models (all distances in meters) 1. "ag_agg.tif": proportion cover of agriculture land type, derived from the CalFire vegetation layer 2. "all_road dens.tif": density of all roads within the raster cell, derived from TIGER lines 3. "barren_agg.tif": proportion cover of barren land type, derived from the CalFire vegetation layer 4. "bulk_dens agg.tif": bulk density of soil, derived from the Polaris soil data (Chaney et al. 2019) 5. "desert_agg.tif": proportion cover of desert land type, derived from the CalFire vegetation layer 6. "elev_agg.tif": elevation, derived from the National Elevation Dataset 7. "grass_agg.tif": proportion cover of grassland land type, derived from the CalFire vegetation layer 8. "maj_road dist.tif": distance to major roads (federal and state highways and county roads) 9. "perc_clay agg.tif": percent clay of soil, derived from the Polaris soil data (Chaney et al. 2019) 10. "ph_agg.tif": pH of soil, derived from the Polaris soil data (Chaney et al. 2019) 11. "road_dist1.tif": distance to all roads, derived from TIGER lines 12. "shrub_agg.tif": proportion cover of shrub land type, derived from the CalFire vegetation layer 13. "slope_agg.tif": slope, derived from the National Elevation Dataset (in degrees) 14. "tpi_fine-agg.tif": topographic position index, derived from the National Elevation Dataset 15. "tri_fine-agg.tif": terrain ruggedness index, derived from the National Elevation Dataset 16. "urban_agg.tif": proportion cover of urban land type, derived from the CalFire vegetation layer 3. Outputs of distribution and habitat suitability models 1. "combined-2041-thresh05-max.tif": estimated future suitability combining models of winter and summer distribution under migration hypothesis, using a threshold to include 95% of pronghorn occurrences in the contemporary model 2. "expert-all.tif": output of the expert-driven suitability model 3. "expert_future.tif": expert driven suitability model, clipped to areas of projected future climate suitability 4. "expert-climate.tif": expert driven suitability model, clipped to areas of estimated contemporary climate suitability 5. "expert-no_human.tif": expert driven suitability model, with all human-dominated (i.e. urban and agriculture) layers removed 6. "gps_ensemble.tif": ensemble model of habitat suitability based on GPS data from three pronghorn populations in California 7. "gps_low-p-thresh01-climthresh.tif": reduced predictor ensemble model of suitability based on GPS data, thresholded to include 99% of all GPS points and clipped to areas of contemporary suitability 8. "gps_lowp-thresho01-future.tif": reduced predictor ensemble model of suitability based on GPS data, thresholded to include 99% of all GPS points and clipped to areas of future suitability 9. "gps_lowp-thresh01.tif": reduced predictor ensemble model of suitability based on GPS data, thresholded to include 99% of all GPS points 10. "gps_lowpred-ensemble.tif": reduced predictor ensemble model of suitability based on GPS data 11. "hist_pronghorn-aea.tif" and "hist-pronghorn-wgs.tif": model of pronghorn climatic suitability in California based on niche reduction hypothesis using historical distribution of pronghorn (aea = Albers Equal Area projection; WGS = unprojected, dataum = WGS84) 12. "hist_pronghorn-thresh05.tif": model of pronghorn climatic suitability in California based on niche reduction hypothesis using historical distribution of pronghorn, thresholded to include 95% of historical pronghorn locations 13. "hist-2041-mean.tif": mean future climatic suitability projected for 2041-2060 based on niche reduction hypothesis 14. "hist-2041-thresh05.tif": sum of all future climatic suitability projections based on niche reduction hypothesis, thresholded to include 95% of historical pronghorn locations 15. "hsm_thresh-consensus-future.tif": sum of all future climatic suitability projections from ensemble suitability model, thresholded to include 99% of pronghorn locations 16. "hsm_thresh-consensus.tif": mean of all future climatic suitability projections from ensemble suitability model 17. "occ_ensemble-lowp.tif": ensemble model of habitat suitability using occurrences collected by California Department of Fish and Wildlife and a reduced set of habitat predictors 18. "ssf_hsm.tif": contemporary habitat suitability model based on step-selection function using GPS data from three pronghorn populations in California 19. "ssf_hsm-thresh01.tif": contemporary habitat suitability model based on step-selection function using GPS data from three pronghorn populations in California, thresholded to include 99% of pronghorn GPS locations 20. "ssf_hsm-thresh01-climthresh.tif": contemporary habitat suitability model based on step-selection function using GPS data from three pronghorn populations in California, thresholded to include 99% of pronghorn GPS locations and clipped to contemporary climate suitability 21. "ssf_thresh01-future.tif": contemporary habitat suitability model based on step-selection function using GPS data from three pronghorn populations in California, thresholded to include 99% of pronghorn GPS locations and clipped to future climate suitability 22. "summer-only-suit.tif": model of contemporary climatic suitability in summer for pronghorn under migration hypothesis 23. "summer_thresh-15th.tif": model of contemporary climatic suitability in summer for pronghorn under migration hypothesis clipped to include 85% of all pronghorn locations 24. "summer-proj-2041.tif": model of future climatic suitability in summer for pronghorn under migration hypothesis, stack of all scenarios 25. "summer-2041-mean.tif": model of future climatic suitability in summer for pronghorn under migration hypothesis, mean 26. "summer-2041-thresh05.tif": model of future climatic suitability in summer for pronghorn under migration hypothesis, summed all thresholds 27. "winter-only-suit.tif": model of contemporary climatic suitability in winter for pronghorn under migration hypothesis 28. "winter_thresh-15th.tif": model of contemporary climatic suitability in winter for pronghorn under migration hypothesis clipped to include 85% of all pronghorn locations 29. "winter-proj-2041.tif": model of future climatic suitability in winter for pronghorn under migration hypothesis, stack of all scenarios 30. "winter-2041-mean.tif": model of future climatic suitability in winter for pronghorn under migration hypothesis, mean 31. "winter-2041-thresh05.tif": model of future climatic suitability in winter for pronghorn under migration hypothesis, summed all thresholds