cometadata/datacite-titles-descriptions-related-identifiers huggingface dataset:
DOI: 10.3886/e114274v1
title: Replication data for: Sharing the Burden: Monetary and Fiscal Responses to a World Liquidity Trap

description: This paper analyzes optimal policy responses to a global liquidity trap. The key feature of this environment is that relative prices respond perversely. A fall in demand in one country causes an appreciation of its terms of trade, exacerbating the initial shock. At the zero bound, this country cannot counter this shock. Then it may be optimal for the partner country to raise interest rates. The partner may set a positive policy interest rate, even though its â€œnatural interest rateâ€ is below zero. An optimal policy response requires a mutual interaction between monetary and fiscal policy.
DOI: 10.3886/e114275v1
title: Replication data for: Credit Risk and Disaster Risk

description: Credit spreads are large, volatile, and countercyclical, and recent empirical work suggests that risk premia, not expected credit losses, are responsible for these features. Building on the idea that corporate debt, while fairly safe in ordinary recessions, is exposed to economic depressions, this paper embeds a trade-off theory of capital structure into a real business cycle model with a small, exogenously timevarying risk of economic disaster. The model replicates the level, volatility and cyclicality of credit spreads, and variation in the corporate bond risk premium amplifies macroeconomic fluctuations in investment, employment, and GDP.
DOI: 10.3886/e114745
title: Replication data for: Short-Run Impacts of Accountability on School Quality

description: In the fall of 2007, New York City began using student tests and other measures to assign each school a grade (A to F), and linked grades to rewards and consequences, including possible school closure. These grades were released in late September, arguably too late for schools to make major changes in programs or personnel, and students were tested again in January (English) and March (math). Despite this time frame, regression discontinuity estimates indicate that receipt of a low grade significantly increased student achievement, more so in math than English, and improved parental evaluations of school quality. (JEL H75, I21, I28, J45)
DOI: 10.3886/e114745v1
title: Replication data for: Short-Run Impacts of Accountability on School Quality

description: In the fall of 2007, New York City began using student tests and other measures to assign each school a grade (A to F), and linked grades to rewards and consequences, including possible school closure. These grades were released in late September, arguably too late for schools to make major changes in programs or personnel, and students were tested again in January (English) and March (math). Despite this time frame, regression discontinuity estimates indicate that receipt of a low grade significantly increased student achievement, more so in math than English, and improved parental evaluations of school quality. (JEL H75, I21, I28, J45)
DOI: 10.3886/e114746
title: Replication data for: Domestic Institutions and the Bypass Effect of Financial Globalization

description: This paper proposes a simple model to study how domestic institutions affect patterns of international capital flows. Inefficient financial system, and poor corporate governance, may be bypassed by two-way capital flows in which domestic savings leave the country in the form of financial capital outflows but domestic investment takes place via inward FDI. While financial globalization always improves the welfare of a developed country with a good financial system, its effect is ambiguous for a developing country with an inefficient financial sector or poor corporate governance. Interestingly, financial and property rights institutions can have opposite effects on capital flows. (JEL D02, E21, F21, F32, G34)
DOI: 10.3886/e114746v1
title: Replication data for: Domestic Institutions and the Bypass Effect of Financial Globalization

description: This paper proposes a simple model to study how domestic institutions affect patterns of international capital flows. Inefficient financial system, and poor corporate governance, may be bypassed by two-way capital flows in which domestic savings leave the country in the form of financial capital outflows but domestic investment takes place via inward FDI. While financial globalization always improves the welfare of a developed country with a good financial system, its effect is ambiguous for a developing country with an inefficient financial sector or poor corporate governance. Interestingly, financial and property rights institutions can have opposite effects on capital flows. (JEL D02, E21, F21, F32, G34)
DOI: 10.3886/e114747
title: Replication data for: The Effects of Pharmaceutical Marketing and Promotion on Adverse Drug Events and Regulation

description: This paper analyzes the relationship between postmarketing promotional activity and reporting of adverse drug reactions (ADRs) by modeling the interaction between a regulator (the FDA) and a pharmaceutical firm. Promotion-driven market expansions enhance profitability yet may involve the risk of inappropriate drug prescriptions, leading to regulatory actions against the firm. We empirically test the relationship between drug promotion and reporting of ADRs using an innovative combination of commercial data on pharmaceutical promotion and FDA data on regulatory interventions and ADRs. We provide some evidence that increased levels of promotion and advertising lead to increased reporting of ADRs for certain conditions. (JEL L51, L65, M31, M37)
DOI: 10.3886/e114747v1
title: Replication data for: The Effects of Pharmaceutical Marketing and Promotion on Adverse Drug Events and Regulation

description: This paper analyzes the relationship between postmarketing promotional activity and reporting of adverse drug reactions (ADRs) by modeling the interaction between a regulator (the FDA) and a pharmaceutical firm. Promotion-driven market expansions enhance profitability yet may involve the risk of inappropriate drug prescriptions, leading to regulatory actions against the firm. We empirically test the relationship between drug promotion and reporting of ADRs using an innovative combination of commercial data on pharmaceutical promotion and FDA data on regulatory interventions and ADRs. We provide some evidence that increased levels of promotion and advertising lead to increased reporting of ADRs for certain conditions. (JEL L51, L65, M31, M37)
DOI: 10.3886/e114275
title: Replication data for: Credit Risk and Disaster Risk

description: Credit spreads are large, volatile, and countercyclical, and recent empirical work suggests that risk premia, not expected credit losses, are responsible for these features. Building on the idea that corporate debt, while fairly safe in ordinary recessions, is exposed to economic depressions, this paper embeds a trade-off theory of capital structure into a real business cycle model with a small, exogenously timevarying risk of economic disaster. The model replicates the level, volatility and cyclicality of credit spreads, and variation in the corporate bond risk premium amplifies macroeconomic fluctuations in investment, employment, and GDP.
DOI: 10.3886/e114276
title: Replication data for: Capital Controls with International Reserve Accumulation: Can This Be Optimal?

description: Motivated by the Chinese experience, we analyze an economy where the central bank has access to international capital markets, but the private sector does not. The central bank is modeled as a Ramsey planner who can choose the domestic interest rate and the level of international reserves. Consumers are credit-constrained as in Woodford (1990). We find that a rapidly growing economy has a higher welfare without capital mobility. In the Chinese context, we argue that the domestic interest rate should be temporarily above the international rate and that there should be more foreign asset accumulation than in an open economy.
DOI: 10.3886/e114276v1
title: Replication data for: Capital Controls with International Reserve Accumulation: Can This Be Optimal?

description: Motivated by the Chinese experience, we analyze an economy where the central bank has access to international capital markets, but the private sector does not. The central bank is modeled as a Ramsey planner who can choose the domestic interest rate and the level of international reserves. Consumers are credit-constrained as in Woodford (1990). We find that a rapidly growing economy has a higher welfare without capital mobility. In the Chinese context, we argue that the domestic interest rate should be temporarily above the international rate and that there should be more foreign asset accumulation than in an open economy.
DOI: 10.3886/e114277
title: Replication data for: Crises and Recoveries in an Empirical Model of Consumption Disasters

description: We estimate an empirical model of consumption disasters using new data on consumption for 24 countries over more than 100 years, and study its implications for asset prices. The model allows for partial recoveries after disasters that unfold over multiple years. We find that roughly half of the drop in consumption due to disasters is subsequently reversed. Our model generates a sizable equity premium from disaster risk, but one that is substantially smaller than in simpler models. It implies that a large value of the intertemporal elasticity of substitution is necessary to explain stock-market crashes at the onset of disasters.
DOI: 10.3886/e114277v1
title: Replication data for: Crises and Recoveries in an Empirical Model of Consumption Disasters

description: We estimate an empirical model of consumption disasters using new data on consumption for 24 countries over more than 100 years, and study its implications for asset prices. The model allows for partial recoveries after disasters that unfold over multiple years. We find that roughly half of the drop in consumption due to disasters is subsequently reversed. Our model generates a sizable equity premium from disaster risk, but one that is substantially smaller than in simpler models. It implies that a large value of the intertemporal elasticity of substitution is necessary to explain stock-market crashes at the onset of disasters.
DOI: 10.3886/e114278
title: Replication data for: Sovereign Defaults: The Price of Haircuts

description: A main puzzle in the sovereign debt literature is that defaults have only minor effects on subsequent borrowing costs and access to credit. This paper comes to a different conclusion. We construct the first complete database of investor losses ("haircuts") in all restructurings with foreign banks and bondholders from 1970 until 2010, covering 180 cases in 68 countries. We then show that restructurings involving higher haircuts are associated with significantly higher subsequent bond yield spreads and longer periods of capital market exclusion. The results cast doubt on the widespread belief that credit markets "forgive and forget."
DOI: 10.3886/e114278v1
title: Replication data for: Sovereign Defaults: The Price of Haircuts

description: A main puzzle in the sovereign debt literature is that defaults have only minor effects on subsequent borrowing costs and access to credit. This paper comes to a different conclusion. We construct the first complete database of investor losses ("haircuts") in all restructurings with foreign banks and bondholders from 1970 until 2010, covering 180 cases in 68 countries. We then show that restructurings involving higher haircuts are associated with significantly higher subsequent bond yield spreads and longer periods of capital market exclusion. The results cast doubt on the widespread belief that credit markets "forgive and forget."
DOI: 10.3886/e114279v1
title: Replication data for: A Pitfall with Estimated DSGE-Based Government Spending Multipliers

description: This paper examines issues related to the estimation of the government spending multiplier (GSM) in a DSGE context. We stress a source of bias in the GSM arising from the combination of endogenous government expenditures and Edgeworth complementarity between private consumption and government expenditures. Due to cross-equation restrictions, omitting the endogenous component of government policy at the estimation stage would lead an econometrician to underestimate the degree of Edgeworth complementarity and, consequently, the long-run GSM. An estimated version of our model with US postwar data shows that this bias matters quantitatively. The results are robust to a number of perturbations.
DOI: 10.3886/e114748
title: Replication data for: Detecting Illegal Arms Trade

description: We propose a method to detect illegal arms trade based on investor knowledge. We focus on countries under arms embargo and identify events that suddenly increase or decrease conflict intensity. If a weapon-making company is trading illegally, an event that increases the demand for arms may increase stock prices. We find positive event returns for companies headquartered in countries with high corruption and low transparency in arms trade. We also suggest a method to detect potential embargo violations based on chains of reactions by individual stocks. The presumed violations positively correlate with the number of UN investigations and Internet stories. (JEL D74, F13, G14, K42, L64)
DOI: 10.3886/e114748v1
title: Replication data for: Detecting Illegal Arms Trade

description: We propose a method to detect illegal arms trade based on investor knowledge. We focus on countries under arms embargo and identify events that suddenly increase or decrease conflict intensity. If a weapon-making company is trading illegally, an event that increases the demand for arms may increase stock prices. We find positive event returns for companies headquartered in countries with high corruption and low transparency in arms trade. We also suggest a method to detect potential embargo violations based on chains of reactions by individual stocks. The presumed violations positively correlate with the number of UN investigations and Internet stories. (JEL D74, F13, G14, K42, L64)
DOI: 10.3886/e114749
title: Replication data for: International Trade in Used Vehicles: The Environmental Consequences of NAFTA

description: Since trade restrictions were eliminated in 2005, Mexico has imported over 2.5 million used vehicles from the United States. Using a unique, vehicle-level dataset, we find that traded vehicles are dirtier than the stock of vehicles in the United States and cleaner than the stock in Mexico, so when a vehicle is traded from the United States to Mexico average vehicle emissions per mile tend to decrease in both countries. Overall, however, the evidence suggests that trade has increased total lifetime emissions, primarily because of low vehicle retirement rates in Mexico. (JEL F13, F14, L62, O13, O19, Q53, Q56)
DOI: 10.3886/e114749v1
title: Replication data for: International Trade in Used Vehicles: The Environmental Consequences of NAFTA

description: Since trade restrictions were eliminated in 2005, Mexico has imported over 2.5 million used vehicles from the United States. Using a unique, vehicle-level dataset, we find that traded vehicles are dirtier than the stock of vehicles in the United States and cleaner than the stock in Mexico, so when a vehicle is traded from the United States to Mexico average vehicle emissions per mile tend to decrease in both countries. Overall, however, the evidence suggests that trade has increased total lifetime emissions, primarily because of low vehicle retirement rates in Mexico. (JEL F13, F14, L62, O13, O19, Q53, Q56)
DOI: 10.3886/e114085
title: Replication data for: The Response of Tail Risk Perceptions to Unconventional Monetary Policy

description: We examine the impact of unconventional monetary policy (UMP) on stock market tail risk and risks of extreme interest rate movements. We find that UMP announcements substantially reduced option-implied equity market tail risks and interest rate risks. Most of the impact derives from forward guidance rather than asset purchase announcements. Communication about the future path of policy rates reduced volatility expectations of long-term rates and the associated risk premia. The reaction of equity market tail risk, in turn, points to the risk-taking channel of monetary policy, as the commitment to low funding rates may have relaxed financial intermediaries' riskbearing constraints. (JEL E52, E58, G12, G13, G14)
DOI: 10.3886/e114085v1
title: Replication data for: The Response of Tail Risk Perceptions to Unconventional Monetary Policy

description: We examine the impact of unconventional monetary policy (UMP) on stock market tail risk and risks of extreme interest rate movements. We find that UMP announcements substantially reduced option-implied equity market tail risks and interest rate risks. Most of the impact derives from forward guidance rather than asset purchase announcements. Communication about the future path of policy rates reduced volatility expectations of long-term rates and the associated risk premia. The reaction of equity market tail risk, in turn, points to the risk-taking channel of monetary policy, as the commitment to low funding rates may have relaxed financial intermediaries' riskbearing constraints. (JEL E52, E58, G12, G13, G14)
DOI: 10.3886/e114279
title: Replication data for: A Pitfall with Estimated DSGE-Based Government Spending Multipliers

description: This paper examines issues related to the estimation of the government spending multiplier (GSM) in a DSGE context. We stress a source of bias in the GSM arising from the combination of endogenous government expenditures and Edgeworth complementarity between private consumption and government expenditures. Due to cross-equation restrictions, omitting the endogenous component of government policy at the estimation stage would lead an econometrician to underestimate the degree of Edgeworth complementarity and, consequently, the long-run GSM. An estimated version of our model with US postwar data shows that this bias matters quantitatively. The results are robust to a number of perturbations.
DOI: 10.3886/e114280
title: Replication data for: Democracy and Reforms: Evidence from a New Dataset

description: Empirical evidence on the relationship between democracy and economic reforms is limited to few reforms, countries, and years. This paper studies the effect of democracy on the adoption of economic reforms using a new dataset on reforms in the financial, capital and banking sectors, product markets, agriculture, and trade for 150 countries over the period 1960-2004. Democracy has a positive and significant impact on the adoption of economic reforms, but there is scarce evidence that economic reforms foster democracy. Our results are robust to the inclusion of a large variety of controls and estimation strategies.
DOI: 10.3886/e114280v1
title: Replication data for: Democracy and Reforms: Evidence from a New Dataset

description: Empirical evidence on the relationship between democracy and economic reforms is limited to few reforms, countries, and years. This paper studies the effect of democracy on the adoption of economic reforms using a new dataset on reforms in the financial, capital and banking sectors, product markets, agriculture, and trade for 150 countries over the period 1960-2004. Democracy has a positive and significant impact on the adoption of economic reforms, but there is scarce evidence that economic reforms foster democracy. Our results are robust to the inclusion of a large variety of controls and estimation strategies.
DOI: 10.3886/e114281
title: Replication data for: Time-Varying Effects of Oil Supply Shocks on the US Economy

description: Using time-varying BVARs, we find a substantial decline in the shortrun price elasticity of oil demand since the mid-1980s. This finding helps explain why an oil production shortfall of the same magnitude is associated with a stronger response of oil prices and more severe macroeconomic consequences over time, while a similar oil price increase is associated with smaller output effects. Oil supply shocks also account for a smaller fraction of real oil price variability in more recent periods, in contrast to oil demand shocks. The overall effects of oil supply disruptions on the US economy have, however, been modest.
DOI: 10.3886/e114281v1
title: Replication data for: Time-Varying Effects of Oil Supply Shocks on the US Economy

description: Using time-varying BVARs, we find a substantial decline in the shortrun price elasticity of oil demand since the mid-1980s. This finding helps explain why an oil production shortfall of the same magnitude is associated with a stronger response of oil prices and more severe macroeconomic consequences over time, while a similar oil price increase is associated with smaller output effects. Oil supply shocks also account for a smaller fraction of real oil price variability in more recent periods, in contrast to oil demand shocks. The overall effects of oil supply disruptions on the US economy have, however, been modest.
DOI: 10.3886/e114282
title: Replication data for: Weak States and Steady States: The Dynamics of Fiscal Capacity

description: Investments in fiscal capacity—economic institutions for tax compliance—are an important feature of economic development. This paper develops a dynamic model to study the evolution of fiscal capacity over time. We contrast a social planner's investment path with politically feasible paths. Three types of states emerge in the long run: a common-interest state where public resources are devoted to public goods, a redistributive state where additional fiscal capacity is used for transfers, and a weak state with no transfers and a low level of public goods provision. We also present some preliminary evidence consistent with the theory.
DOI: 10.3886/e114282v1
title: Replication data for: Weak States and Steady States: The Dynamics of Fiscal Capacity

description: Investments in fiscal capacity—economic institutions for tax compliance—are an important feature of economic development. This paper develops a dynamic model to study the evolution of fiscal capacity over time. We contrast a social planner's investment path with politically feasible paths. Three types of states emerge in the long run: a common-interest state where public resources are devoted to public goods, a redistributive state where additional fiscal capacity is used for transfers, and a weak state with no transfers and a low level of public goods provision. We also present some preliminary evidence consistent with the theory.
DOI: 10.3886/e114283
title: Replication data for: Aggregate Implications of Lumpy Investment: New Evidence and a DSGE Model

description: The sensitivity of US aggregate investment to shocks is procyclical. The response upon impact increases by approximately 50 percent from the trough to the peak of the business cycle. This feature of the data follows naturally from a DSGE model with lumpy microeconomic capital adjustment. Beyond explaining this specific time variation, our model and evidence provide a counterexample to the claim that microeconomic investment lumpiness is inconsequential for macroeconomic analysis.
DOI: 10.3886/e114283v1
title: Replication data for: Aggregate Implications of Lumpy Investment: New Evidence and a DSGE Model

description: The sensitivity of US aggregate investment to shocks is procyclical. The response upon impact increases by approximately 50 percent from the trough to the peak of the business cycle. This feature of the data follows naturally from a DSGE model with lumpy microeconomic capital adjustment. Beyond explaining this specific time variation, our model and evidence provide a counterexample to the claim that microeconomic investment lumpiness is inconsequential for macroeconomic analysis.