DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.15721435
title: State of Wildfires 2024-25 ConFLAME driving data

description: This repository contains the driving data used by ConFLAME for the State of Wildfire 2024/25 report. All NetCDF files are on regular 0.5-degree grids, on a monthly timestep, across the three focal regions used in the report.

Data is organized into subdirectories for each region:





Amazon – Northeast Amazonia




Pantanal – Pantanal-Chiquitano




LA – Southern California




Congo – Congo Basin



Each region contains the following files:

Burned Area





burnt_area.nc: The original 0.25-degree burned area dataset before regridding to 0.5° resolution. Covers 2001–2025.




burnt_area_data.csv: Monthly time series extracted from burnt_area.nc. Columns include:





mean_burnt_area: Burned area for each month




mean_burnt_area_climatology: Monthly climatology (e.g., average for all Januaries)




mean_burnt_area_anomaly: Deviation from climatology




mean_burnt_ratio: Ratio of monthly value to climatology




p95_burnt_area, p95_burnt_area_climatology, p95_burnt_anomaly, p95_burnt_ratio: Same metrics for top 5% of grid cells by burned area






burnt_area_datafor_event_months.csv: As above, but limited to key event months highlighted in the report.



NRT (Near Real-Time) Data

Contained in the nrt directory. This data was used for both driver analysis and near real-time attribution.

era5_daily/

Raw ERA5-derived daily data used to generate monthly summaries and counterfactuals. Directory structure:Era5_derived-era5-single-levels-daily-statistics/<variable>/Each variable folder contains:





*_years2002-20252.nc – Daily data from 2002–2025




*_years2023-20252.nc – Daily data for 2023–Feb 2025



Variables included:





evap/, hursmin/, mrros/, mrsos/, pevap/, pr/, tasdew/, tasmax/, WindGust1/, WindGust2/



era5_monthly/

This is the actual ConFLAME driving data, including the attribution "factual" data. Files include:





Climate Variables:





precip.nc, tas_max.nc, tas_mean.nc, hurs_mean.nc, hurs_min.nc, wind_max.nc, dry_days.nc, max_consec_dry.nc, LI.nc, cg_strokes.nc






Fuel and Vegetation Moisture:





TV_DFMC.nc, TV_LFMC.nc, TV_CFUEL_CORRECTED_MAP.nc, month_laih.nc, month_lail.nc, cvh_.nc, cvl_.nc






Land Use and Socioeconomic Drivers:





cropland_regridded_to_era5.nc, pasture_regridded_to_era5.nc, rangeland_regridded_to_era5.nc, grazing_land_regridded_to_era5.nc,urban_area_regridded_to_era5.nc, total_irrigated_regridded_to_era5.nc,population_density_regridded_to_era5.nc, urban_population_regridded_to_era5.nc, rural_population_regridded_to_era5.nc





Burned Area Target





burned_area.nc: Regridded 0.5° burned area data, used as the target for model training and evaluation.



Counterfactuals





CF_mean/: Contains monthly counterfactuals based on the mean difference between HadGEM3 “ALL” and “NAT” ensemble members. See Barbosa et al. (submitted) for details.




CF/: Contains ensemble-based counterfactuals used for attribution. Subdirectories:





hursmin/, pr/, tas/, tasmax/, WindGust1/Each folder contains NetCDF files named using the format: <variable>_<summary><number>.nc, where:





<variable> = input variable




<summary> = monthly statistic (e.g., mean, max, count)




<number> = ensemble member







Variables included:





hurs_mean, hurs_min: Monthly mean and minimum of daily minimum relative humidity




dry_days: Number of dry days per month




max_consec_dry: Maximum number of consecutive dry days




precip: Monthly mean precipitation




tas_max: Monthly maximum temperature




wind_max: Monthly maximum wind speedHere's a full summery:










Category


File Name or Directory

contains '<<no>>' for Counterfactual enemble only. 



Counterfactual included

Description




Climate Variables
precip_<<no>>.nc
Y
Monthly total precipitation (mm).


 
tas_min<<no>>.nc
Y
Monthly maximum daily temperature (°C).


 
tas_mean<<no>>.nc
Y
Monthly mean daily temperature (°C).


 
hurs_mean<<no>>.nc
Y
Monthly mean of daily minimum relative humidity (%).


 
hurs_min<<no>>.nc
Y
Monthly minimum of daily minimum relative humidity (%).


 
wind_max<<no>>.nc
Y
Monthly maximum daily wind speed (m/s).


 
dry_days<<no>>.nc
Y
Monthly count of dry days (e.g., days with precipitation < 1 mm).


 
max_consec_dry<<no>>.nc
Y
Monthly maximum number of consecutive dry days.


 
LI.nc
N
Monthly mean Lifted Index (°C), a convective instability indicator.


 
cg_strokes.nc
N
Monthly total cloud-to-ground lightning strokes (count).


Fuel and Vegetation Moisture
TV_DFMC.nc
N
Monthly mean dead fuel moisture content (%), modelled.


 
TV_LFMC.nc
N
Monthly mean live fuel moisture content (%), modelled.


 
TV_CFUEL_CORRECTED_MAP.nc
N
Corrected total combustible fuel load (kg/m²).


 
month_laih.nc
N
Monthly mean high canopy Leaf Area Index.


 
month_lail.nc
N
Monthly mean low canopy Leaf Area Index.


 
cvh_.nc
N
Monthly coefficient of variation in high vegetation greenness (e.g., NDVI or LAI).


 
cvl_.nc
N
Monthly coefficient of variation in low vegetation greenness (e.g., NDVI or LAI).


Land Use and Socioeconomic
cropland_regridded_to_era5.nc
N
Monthly cropland cover (fraction), regridded to match climate data.


 
pasture_regridded_to_era5.nc
N
Monthly pasture area (fraction), regridded.


 
rangeland_regridded_to_era5.nc
N
Monthly rangeland area (fraction), regridded.


 
grazing_land_regridded_to_era5.nc
N
Monthly total grazing land (pasture + rangeland), regridded.


 
urban_area_regridded_to_era5.nc
N
Monthly urban area (fraction), regridded.


 
total_irrigated_regridded_to_era5.nc
N
Monthly total irrigated land (fraction), regridded.


 
population_density_regridded_to_era5.nc
N
Monthly gridded population density (people/km²), regridded.


 
urban_population_regridded_to_era5.nc
N
Monthly gridded urban population (people), regridded.


 
rural_population_regridded_to_era5.nc
N
Monthly gridded rural population (people), regridded.


Burned Area Target
burned_area.nc
Tranining data
Monthly burned area at 0.5° resolution, used as the target variable in model training and testing.


Counterfactuals (Mean)
CF_mean/
 
Folder containing mean climate counterfactuals (ALL - NAT) by variable. See Barbosa et al. (submitted).


Counterfactuals (Ensemble)
CF/
 
Folder containing counterfactual ensembles used for formal attribution.


 
CF/hursmin/
 
Counterfactuals for monthly minimum relative humidity.


 
CF/pr/
 
Counterfactuals for precipitation.


 
CF/tas/
 
Counterfactuals for monthly mean temperature.


 
CF/tasmax/
 
Counterfactuals for maximum temperature.


 
CF/WindGust1/
 
Counterfactuals for maximum wind speed.






 




ISIMIP3a Data (Attribution)

Directory structure: <<experiment>>/<<reanalysis_source>>/period_yyyy_yyyy/





experiment:





obsclim: Observed climate (factual)




counterclim: Detrended (counterfactual)






reanalysis_source: Currently only GSWP3-W5E5




Time periods used in the report:





Factual: obsclim/GSWP3-W5E5/period_2002_2019/




Counterfactual: counterclim/GSWP3-W5E5/period_2002_2019/




Early Industrial: counterclim/GSWP3-W5E5/period_1901_1920/





ISIMIP3b Data (Future Projections)

Directory structure: <<experiment>>/<<GCM>>/period_yyyy_yyyy/





experiment:





historical, ssp126, ssp370, ssp585






GCM: Refers to the General Circulation Model used



ISIMIP Variable Table








NetCDF file
Variable
Used?
Source
Notes




consec_dry_mean.nc
Max. consecutive dry days
Yes
ISIMIP3a/3b
Based on precipitation


crop_jules-es.nc
Cropland
Yes
ISIMIP3a/3b
Interpolated monthly from annual values


filled_debiased_nonetree_cover_jules-es.nc
Non-tree vegetated cover
Yes
JULES-ES
Bias-corrected using MODIS VCF


filled_debiased_tree_cover_jules-es.nc
Tree cover
Yes
JULES-ES
Bias-corrected using MODIS VCF


filled_debiased_vegCover_jules-es.nc
Total vegetation cover
Yes
JULES-ES
Bias-corrected


lightning.nc
Lightning climatology
Yes
ISIMIP3a
Climatology only


pasture_jules-es.nc
Pasture
Yes
ISIMIP3a/3b
Monthly interpolated


pr_mean.nc
Monthly precipitation
Yes
ISIMIP3a/3b
 


tas_max.nc
Monthly maximum temperature
Yes
ISIMIP3a/3b
Max of daily max temps


tas_mean.nc
Mean temperature
Yes
ISIMIP3a/3b
Daily mean


urban_jules-es.nc
Urban area fraction
Yes
JULES-ES
 


vpd_max.nc
Max monthly vapour pressure deficit
Yes
ISIMIP3a/3b
 


vpd_mean.nc
Mean monthly VPD
Yes
ISIMIP3a/3b
 


...
...
No
...
Other vegetation and VCF files not used directly






 




Variables with _change in the filename represent the difference from the previous year to the current year.

ISIMIP data is detailed in Frieler et al. (2024) and can be accessed at https://data.ISIMIP.org.VCF data used for bias correction is from MODIS Vegetation Continuous Fields Collection 6.0 (DiMiceli et al., 2015).JULES-ES simulations used ISIMIP climate drivers as described in Mathison et al. (2023).