DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.17619698
title: The Reindeer Rebellion: Symbolic Governance and Institutional Forced Migration

description: This dataset examines the impact of the 2020 Girjas Supreme Court decision on forestry permitting patterns in Swedish Sápmi (1995-2024).

BACKGROUNDOn January 23, 2020, the Swedish Supreme Court ruled in Girjas Sami Village v. the Swedish State (Case No. T 853-18) that the Girjas sameby holds exclusive rights to manage hunting and fishing on traditional territories based on immemorial possession (urminnes hävd). This landmark decision represented a significant legal recognition of Sámi territorial sovereignty.

METHODSWe construct a Clearcutting Pressure Index (CPI) defined as the number of clearcut felling permits issued per 1,000 hectares of productive forest land. This metric standardizes forestry intensity across regions with varying forest coverage, enabling comparison between Sámi-dominant areas (Norrbotten, Norra Norrland) and regions with minimal Sámi presence.

Using a Chow structural break test, we assess whether the Girjas ruling produced measurable changes in forestry governance. For each region, we estimate three OLS regressions: (1) full time series (1995-2024), (2) pre-Girjas period (1995-2019), and (3) post-Girjas period (2020-2024). The Chow test calculates whether residual sum of squares differs significantly between pooled and separate models, with statistical significance set at p < 0.05.

FINDINGSWe find statistically significant structural breaks in multiple regions:- National level (Hela landet): F = 10.98, p < 0.001 (56-point CPI decline)- Norrbotten (Girjas region): F = 3.72, p = 0.038 (45-point CPI decline)- Norra Norrland: F = 8.60, p < 0.001 (significant structural change)

These findings provide empirical evidence that the Girjas decision altered regulatory behavior in Swedish forestry agencies. However, reduced clearcutting activity does not necessarily indicate increased Sámi control over territorial governance—forestry agencies became more cautious about litigation risk, not subordinate to Indigenous authority. This reflects what we term "symbolic governance through organizational adaptation."

DATA SOURCESwedish Forest Agency (Skogsstyrelsen) public statistical database: "Ansökan om tillstånd till föryngringsavverkning inom fjällnära skog efter region och ägarkategori. År 1995–" (Applications for clearcut felling permits in mountain-near forests by region and owner category, 1995-2024).

CONTENTS- Girjas.csv — 30-year panel dataset (1995-2024) of clearcutting permits by region- Girjas.ipynb — Complete Python analysis code (Google Colab notebook)- README — Detailed documentation and replication instructions

The Python code is fully replicable and generates:- Chow test statistical results table (CSV export)- Figure 1: Time series visualization of all regions- Figure 2: Focused visualization of key Sámi-dominant regions- Individual regional plots with pre/post trend lines- Summary statistics table

CONTRIBUTIONThis analysis contributes to understanding how legal recognition of Indigenous territorial rights affects state and corporate land-use behavior in contexts where procedural consultation requirements exist without binding consent mechanisms. The dataset supports research on Indigenous governance, environmental justice, symbolic governance, and institutional responses to legal recognition of Indigenous rights.

FAIR PRINCIPLES COMPLIANCEThis dataset adheres to FAIR data principles:- Findable: Persistent DOI, comprehensive metadata, searchable keywords- Accessible: Open access under CC BY 4.0, standard file formats- Interoperable: CSV (data), Python/Jupyter (code), standard statistical methods- Reusable: Full documentation, replication code, clear licensing