DOI: 10.5061/dryad.88nd5
title: Data from: Patterns of mammalian population decline inform conservation action

description: 1. Evaluations of wildlife population dynamics have the potential to
 convey valuable information on the type of pressure affecting a population
 and could help predict future changes in the population's trajectory.
 Greater understanding of different patterns of population declines could
 provide a useful mechanism for assessing decline severity in the wild and
 identifying those populations that are more likely to exhibit severe
 declines. 2. We identified 93 incidences of decline within 75 populations
 of mammalian species using a time-series analysis method. These included:
 linear, quadratic convex (accelerating) declines, exponential concave
 (decelerating) declines, and quadratic concave declines (representing
 recovering populations). Excluding linear declines left a dataset of 85
 declines to model the relationship between each decline-curve type and a
 range of biological, anthropogenic, and time-series descriptor explanatory
 variables. 3. None of the decline-curve types were spatially or
 phylogenetically clustered. The only characteristic that could be
 consistently associated with any curve-type was the time at which they
 were more likely to occur within a time-series. Quadratic convex declines
 were more likely to occur at the start of the time-series, while
 recovering curve shapes (quadratic concave declines) were more likely at
 the end of the time-series. 4. Synthesis and applications: The ability to
 link certain factors with specific decline dynamics across a number of
 mammalian populations is useful for management purposes as it provides
 decision-makers with potential triggers upon which to base their
 conservation actions. We propose that the identification of quadratic
 convex declines could be used as an early-warning signal of potentially
 severe decline dynamics. For such populations, increased population
 monitoring effort should be deployed to diagnose the cause of its decline
 and avert possible extinctions. Conversely, the presence of a quadratic
 concave decline suggests that the population has already undergone a
 period of serious decline but is now in the process of recovery. Such
 populations will require different types of conservation actions, focussed
 on enhancing their chances of recovery.
description: Raw time-series
 data75 high quality
 mammalian population time series, representing 33 species, spanning six
 orders, drawn from the Living Planet Index vertebrate population abundance
 data base. The first column represents the years over which monitoring
 took place, and all subsequent columns represent the abundance of
 different population IDs.Di Fonzo_Raw time-series
 analysis.csvKalman-filtered
 time-seriesThe first column
 represents the years over which monitoring took place, and all subsequent
 columns represent the abundance of different population IDs, following the
 application of the Kalman filter (to account for potential sources of
 uncertainty arising from count errors).Di Fonzo_Raw time-series
 analysis_Kalman.csvDecline-curve data set
 for comparative analysesDataset used for
 generalized linear mixed modelling of decline curve-type. Please see the
 ReadMe file for further descriptions of each column
 title.Di
 Fonzo_Decline-curve data_comparative.csvDi Fonzo Dryad ReadMe
 file.pdf