DOI: 10.1594/wdcc/dphase_larsimbw
title: dphase_larsimbw: hydrological model LARSIM (Baden-Wuerttemberg) forecasts run by LUBW for the MAP D-PHASE project

description: Project: D-PHASE, Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region - The Mesoscale Alpine Programme (MAP, the first WWRP Research and Development Project (RDP)) is an international research initiative devoted to the study of atmospheric and hydrological processes over mountainous terrain. It aims towards expanding our knowledge of weather and climate over complex topography, and thereby to improve current forecasting capabilities. A large-scale field phase in the Alpine region took place from 7 September to 15 November 1999. D-PHASE (Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region) is a WWRP Forecast Demonstration Project (FDP) and aims at demonstrating some of the many achievements of MAP, in particular the ability of forecasting heavy precipitation and related flooding events in the Alpine region. The MAP FDP will address the entire forecasting chain ranging from limited-area ensemble forecasting, high-resolution atmospheric modelling(km-scale), hydrological modelling, and nowcasting to decision making by the end users, i.e., it is foreseen to set up an end-to-end forecasting system. The demonstration period of MAP D-PHASE will be 1 June to 30 November 2007. See also official homepage: http://www.map.meteoswiss.ch/map-doc/dphase/dphase_info.htm Please be aware of the common COPS/GOP/D-PHASE data policy, which you please find at http://cops.wdc-climate.de/ Summary: LARSIM (LARSIM=LArge Area Runoff Simulation Model BW= Baden-Wuerttemberg) is described in "Freiburger Schriften zur Hydrologie", Band 22. 2006 (Ludwig, K.; Bremicker, M.: The water Balance Model LARSIM) The calculated results from LARSIM for the gauges Murg at Rotenfels and Kinzig at Schwaibach were handed over. The results are calcultaed in operational mode of the flood forecasting centre Karlsruhe (HVZ). The forecasts were corrected with ARIMA (0,1,0), i.e. the forecasted discharges were shifted with a constant amount, so, that the first forecast value attaches directly to the last measured value. During low water periods, the forecast is adapted to the average value of the last 24 h of the measured values. The forecasts were calculated for 72 hours. The runs driven by the DWD forecast LMK takes the LMK (new name: COSMO-DE) for the first 21 hours and then the LME-forecast. The runs called LME take only the LME (new name: COSMO-EU) forecast into accuont. For the period up to the forecast time measured values were used. The model uses precipitation, temperature, wind velocity, dew point or rel. humidity and the solar radiation. The measurement network uses the stations of the German Weatherservice DWD, the stations of the federal state Baden-Wuerttemberg (called "LUBW Luft" and "LUBW Ombro") and stations of third parties. The measurement network is very dense, but the equipement of the different stations may be dissimilar. You can see the network of the precipitation stations at http://www.hvz.baden-wuerttemberg.de/ -&gt; Niederschlag -&gt; Stationskarte. The forecasts were performed by the Flood Forecasting Centre Karlsruhe (HVZ) with its operational model "Oberrheinzf" (for Oberrheinzufluesse = tributaries of the river Rhine). The HVZ is part of the "Landesanstalt fuer Umwelt, Messungen und Naturschutz Baden-Wuerttemberg" (LUBW)". The model covers the region: 7°42' / 48°04' und 8°33' / 49°02'