cometadata/datacite-titles-descriptions-related-identifiers huggingface dataset:
DOI: 10.3886/e114063v1
title: Replication data for: Structural Change, Growth, and Volatility

description: I construct a two-sector general equilibrium model of structural change to study the impact of sectoral composition of gross domestic product (GDP) on cross-country differences in GDP growth and volatility. For an empirically relevant parametrization of sectoral production functions, an increase in the share of services in GDP reduces both aggregate total factor productivity (TFP) growth and volatility, thus reducing GDP growth and volatility. When the model is calibrated to the US manufacturing and service sector, the rise of the service sector occurring as income grows can account for a large fraction of the differences in per capita GDP growth and volatility between high-income economies and upper middle income economies. (JEL E23, E25, E32, L60, L80)
DOI: 10.3886/e114064
title: Replication data for: Does the Technological Content of Government Demand Matter for Private R&D? Evidence from US States

description: Governments purchase everything from airplanes to zucchini. This paper investigates the role of the technological content of government procurement in innovation. In a theoretical model, we first show that a shift in the composition of public purchases toward high-tech products translates into higher economy-wide returns to innovation, leading to an increase in the aggregate level of private R&D. Using unique data on federal procurement in US states and performing panel fixed-effects estimations, we find support for the model's prediction of a positive R&D effect of the technological content of government procurement. Instrumental-variable estimations suggest a causal interpretation of our findings. (JEL H57, H76, O31, O32, O38)
DOI: 10.3886/e114064v1
title: Replication data for: Does the Technological Content of Government Demand Matter for Private R&D? Evidence from US States

description: Governments purchase everything from airplanes to zucchini. This paper investigates the role of the technological content of government procurement in innovation. In a theoretical model, we first show that a shift in the composition of public purchases toward high-tech products translates into higher economy-wide returns to innovation, leading to an increase in the aggregate level of private R&D. Using unique data on federal procurement in US states and performing panel fixed-effects estimations, we find support for the model's prediction of a positive R&D effect of the technological content of government procurement. Instrumental-variable estimations suggest a causal interpretation of our findings. (JEL H57, H76, O31, O32, O38)
DOI: 10.3886/e114065
title: Replication data for: Welfare Cost of Business Cycles with Idiosyncratic Consumption Risk and a Preference for Robustness

description: The welfare cost of random consumption fluctuations is known from De Santis (2007) to be increasing in the level of uninsured idiosyncratic consumption risk. It is known from Barillas, Hansen, and Sargent (2009) to increase if agents care about robustness to model misspecification. We calculate the cost of business cycles in an economy where agents face idiosyncratic consumption risk and fear model misspecification, finding that idiosyncratic risk has a greater impact on the cost of business cycles if agents already fear model misspecification. Correspondingly, endowing agents with fears about misspecification is more costly when there is already idiosyncratic risk. (JEL D81, E13, E21, E32)
DOI: 10.3886/e114065v1
title: Replication data for: Welfare Cost of Business Cycles with Idiosyncratic Consumption Risk and a Preference for Robustness

description: The welfare cost of random consumption fluctuations is known from De Santis (2007) to be increasing in the level of uninsured idiosyncratic consumption risk. It is known from Barillas, Hansen, and Sargent (2009) to increase if agents care about robustness to model misspecification. We calculate the cost of business cycles in an economy where agents face idiosyncratic consumption risk and fear model misspecification, finding that idiosyncratic risk has a greater impact on the cost of business cycles if agents already fear model misspecification. Correspondingly, endowing agents with fears about misspecification is more costly when there is already idiosyncratic risk. (JEL D81, E13, E21, E32)
DOI: 10.3886/e114119
title: Replication data for: Trying to Understand the PPPs in ICP 2011: Why Are the Results So Different?

description: Purchasing power parity exchange rates, or PPPs, are price indexes that summarize prices in each country relative to a numeraire country, typically the United States. These numbers are used to compare living standards across countries, by academics in studies of economic growth, particularly through the Penn World Table, by the World Bank to construct measures of global poverty, by the European Union to redistribute resources, and by the international development community to draw attention to discrepancies between rich and poor countries. The International Comparison Program (ICP) collects the detailed prices on which these indexes are based on an irregular basis. In 2014, the ICP published PPPs from the 2011 round that are sharply different from those that were expected from extrapolation of the previous round, ICP 2005. These discrepancies will eventually have important implications for the Penn World Table, and for international comparisons of living standards given that the PPPs are used to convert countries' national accounts--GDP and consumption, for example--from local currency to common currency units (international dollars.) The world according to ICP 2011 looks markedly more equal than the world according to ICP 2005. This paper investigates why this happened. We identify a likely source of the problem in the way that the regions of the ICP were linked in 2005. We use two different methods for measuring the size of the effect. Both suggest that the 2005 PPPs for consumption for countries in Asia (excluding Japan), Western Asia, and Africa were overstated relative to the United States by between 18 to 26 percent. Per capita consumption in international dollars of these countries was therefore too low in 2005 and more likely to be accurately estimated in 2011.
DOI: 10.3886/e114226
title: Replication data for: Optimal Inflation for the US Economy

description: This paper studies the optimal long-run inflation rate (OIR) in a small New Keynesian model, where the only policy instrument is a short-term nominal interest rate that may occasionally run against a zero lower bound (ZLB). The model allows for worst-case scenarios of misspecification. The analysis shows first, if the government optimally commits, the OIR is below 1 percent annually. Second, if the government re-optimizes each period, the OIR rises markedly to 17 percent. Third, if the government commits only to an inertial Taylor rule, the inflation bias is eliminated at very low cost in terms of welfare for the representative household. (JEL E12, E31, E43, E52, E58)
DOI: 10.3886/e114226v1
title: Replication data for: Optimal Inflation for the US Economy

description: This paper studies the optimal long-run inflation rate (OIR) in a small New Keynesian model, where the only policy instrument is a short-term nominal interest rate that may occasionally run against a zero lower bound (ZLB). The model allows for worst-case scenarios of misspecification. The analysis shows first, if the government optimally commits, the OIR is below 1 percent annually. Second, if the government re-optimizes each period, the OIR rises markedly to 17 percent. Third, if the government commits only to an inertial Taylor rule, the inflation bias is eliminated at very low cost in terms of welfare for the representative household. (JEL E12, E31, E43, E52, E58)
DOI: 10.3886/e114227v1
title: Replication data for: Education and Catch-Up in the Industrial Revolution

description: Research increasingly stresses the role of human capital in modern economic development. Existing historical evidence -- mostly from British textile industries -- however, rejects that formal education was important for the Industrial Revolution. Our new evidence from technological follower Prussia uses a unique school enrollment and factory employment database linking 334 counties from pre-industrial 1816 to two industrial phases in 1849 and 1882. Using pre-industrial education as instrument for later education and controlling extensively for pre-industrial development, we find that basic education is significantly associated with nontextile industrialization in both phases of the Industrial Revolution. Panel data models with county fixed effects confirm the results. (JEL I20, J24, N13, N33, N63)
DOI: 10.3886/e114228
title: Replication data for: Monetary Policy and the Financing of Firms

description: How should monetary policy respond to changes in financial conditions? We consider a simple model where firms are subject to shocks which may force them to default on their debt. Firms' assets and liabilities are nominal and predetermined. Monetary policy can therefore affect the real value of funds used to finance production. In this model, allowing for inflation volatility in response to aggregate shocks can be optimal; the optimal response to adverse financial shocks is to lower interest rates and to engineer some inflation; and the Taylor rule may implement allocations that have opposite cyclical properties to the optimal ones. (JEL G32, E31, E43, E44, E52)
DOI: 10.3886/e114228v1
title: Replication data for: Monetary Policy and the Financing of Firms

description: How should monetary policy respond to changes in financial conditions? We consider a simple model where firms are subject to shocks which may force them to default on their debt. Firms' assets and liabilities are nominal and predetermined. Monetary policy can therefore affect the real value of funds used to finance production. In this model, allowing for inflation volatility in response to aggregate shocks can be optimal; the optimal response to adverse financial shocks is to lower interest rates and to engineer some inflation; and the Taylor rule may implement allocations that have opposite cyclical properties to the optimal ones. (JEL G32, E31, E43, E44, E52)
DOI: 10.3886/e114229
title: Replication data for: Contrasting Trends in Firm Volatility

description: Over the past decades, the real and financial volatility of listed firms has increased, while the volatility of private firms has decreased. We first provide panel data evidence that, at the firm level, sales and employment volatility are impacted by changes in the degree of ownership concentration. We then construct a model with private and listed firms where risk-taking is a choice variable at the firm-level. Due to general equilibrium feedback, we find that both an increase in stock market participation and integration in international capital markets generate opposite trends in volatility for private and listed firms. (JEL G15, G32, L25)
DOI: 10.3886/e114229v1
title: Replication data for: Contrasting Trends in Firm Volatility

description: Over the past decades, the real and financial volatility of listed firms has increased, while the volatility of private firms has decreased. We first provide panel data evidence that, at the firm level, sales and employment volatility are impacted by changes in the degree of ownership concentration. We then construct a model with private and listed firms where risk-taking is a choice variable at the firm-level. Due to general equilibrium feedback, we find that both an increase in stock market participation and integration in international capital markets generate opposite trends in volatility for private and listed firms. (JEL G15, G32, L25)
DOI: 10.3886/e114497
title: Replication data for: The Price of Labor: Evaluating the Impact of Eliminating User Fees on Maternal and Infant Health Outcomes

description: Since 2001, several sub-Saharan African countries have eliminated user fees for childbirth. Although intended to improve maternal and infant health outcomes, service quality also fell as facilities became overburdened. In this paper I combine DHS surveys on births from countries eliminating user fees. I identify the effect of user fee elimination using (i) a maternal fixed effect and (ii) an event study within a small geographic area. I find that user fees increase the likelihood of delivery at public sector facilities by 2–7 percentage points. I also find that user fee elimination reduces maternal mortality but may increase neonatal mortality.
DOI: 10.3886/e114499
title: Replication data for: Short-Term Impacts of a Pay-It-Forward Livestock Transfer and Training Program in Nepal

description: This study evaluates the short-term impacts of a livestock transfer and training program in Nepal using an RCT with three treatments to capture differential effects of program components. We also evaluate a unique "pay it forward" program rule where recipients are encouraged to share newly acquired knowledge and accumulated wealth to other households in need. After 1.5 years, financial inclusion increases by 0.3 standard deviations and empowerment increases by 0.2 standard deviations among direct beneficiaries. "Pay it forward" impacts are of approximately the same magnitude as direct beneficiaries in the treatments that include encouragement to "pay it forward."
DOI: 10.3886/e114499v1
title: Replication data for: Short-Term Impacts of a Pay-It-Forward Livestock Transfer and Training Program in Nepal

description: This study evaluates the short-term impacts of a livestock transfer and training program in Nepal using an RCT with three treatments to capture differential effects of program components. We also evaluate a unique "pay it forward" program rule where recipients are encouraged to share newly acquired knowledge and accumulated wealth to other households in need. After 1.5 years, financial inclusion increases by 0.3 standard deviations and empowerment increases by 0.2 standard deviations among direct beneficiaries. "Pay it forward" impacts are of approximately the same magnitude as direct beneficiaries in the treatments that include encouragement to "pay it forward."
DOI: 10.3886/e114500
title: Replication data for: A Dialogue between a Populist and an Economist

description: In this imaginary dialogue, a populist and an economist discuss the role of economic shocks to explain populism. A simple correlation between economic shocks and populism is weak. However, economic shocks can explain well the phenomenon of populism in countries with low pre-existent level of trust. This is confirmed both at the macro cross-country level and also by micro evidence obtained from surveys. Finally, this finding is consistent with the "ideational approach" in political science, which emphasizes how the populist narrative opposes the "corrupt elite" to the "virtuous people."
DOI: 10.3886/e114500v1
title: Replication data for: A Dialogue between a Populist and an Economist

description: In this imaginary dialogue, a populist and an economist discuss the role of economic shocks to explain populism. A simple correlation between economic shocks and populism is weak. However, economic shocks can explain well the phenomenon of populism in countries with low pre-existent level of trust. This is confirmed both at the macro cross-country level and also by micro evidence obtained from surveys. Finally, this finding is consistent with the "ideational approach" in political science, which emphasizes how the populist narrative opposes the "corrupt elite" to the "virtuous people."
DOI: 10.3886/e114501
title: Replication data for: The Impact of Big Data on Firm Performance: An Empirical Investigation

description: We examine the impact of "big data" on firm performance in the context of forecast accuracy using proprietary retail sales data obtained from Amazon. We measure the accuracy of forecasts in two relevant dimensions: the number of products (N), and the number of time periods for which a product is available for sale (T). Theory suggests diminishing returns to larger N and T, with relative forecast errors diminishing at rate 1/sqrt(N)+1/sqrt(T). Empirical results indicate gains in forecast improvement in the T dimension but essentially flat N effects.
DOI: 10.3886/e114501v1
title: Replication data for: The Impact of Big Data on Firm Performance: An Empirical Investigation

description: We examine the impact of "big data" on firm performance in the context of forecast accuracy using proprietary retail sales data obtained from Amazon. We measure the accuracy of forecasts in two relevant dimensions: the number of products (N), and the number of time periods for which a product is available for sale (T). Theory suggests diminishing returns to larger N and T, with relative forecast errors diminishing at rate 1/sqrt(N)+1/sqrt(T). Empirical results indicate gains in forecast improvement in the T dimension but essentially flat N effects.
DOI: 10.3886/e114502
title: Replication data for: The Rise of the Dollar and Fall of the Euro as International Currencies

description: International currencies play important roles as foreign exchange reserves but are also most frequently used to denominate corporate and government bonds, bank loans, and import and export invoices. These currencies offer unrivaled liquidity, constituting large shares of the volume on global foreign exchange markets, and are commonly chosen as the anchors targeted by countries with pegged or managed exchange rate regimes. We provide evidence suggesting a recent rise in the use of the dollar, and fall of the use of the euro, with similar patterns manifesting across all these aspects of international currency use.
DOI: 10.3886/e114502v1
title: Replication data for: The Rise of the Dollar and Fall of the Euro as International Currencies

description: International currencies play important roles as foreign exchange reserves but are also most frequently used to denominate corporate and government bonds, bank loans, and import and export invoices. These currencies offer unrivaled liquidity, constituting large shares of the volume on global foreign exchange markets, and are commonly chosen as the anchors targeted by countries with pegged or managed exchange rate regimes. We provide evidence suggesting a recent rise in the use of the dollar, and fall of the use of the euro, with similar patterns manifesting across all these aspects of international currency use.
DOI: 10.3886/e114693
title: Replication data for: Strategic Formulary Design in Medicare Part D Plans

description: The design of Medicare Part D causes most beneficiaries to receive fragmented health insurance, with drug and medical coverage separated. Fragmentation is potentially inefficient since separate insurers optimize over only one component of healthcare spending, despite complementarities and substitutabilities between healthcare types. Fragmentation of only some plans can also lead to market distortions due to differential adverse selection, as integrated plans may use drug formularies to induce enrollment by patients that are profitable in the medical insurance market. We study the design of insurance plans in Medicare Part D and find that formularies reflect these two differences in incentives.
DOI: 10.3886/e114693v1
title: Replication data for: Strategic Formulary Design in Medicare Part D Plans

description: The design of Medicare Part D causes most beneficiaries to receive fragmented health insurance, with drug and medical coverage separated. Fragmentation is potentially inefficient since separate insurers optimize over only one component of healthcare spending, despite complementarities and substitutabilities between healthcare types. Fragmentation of only some plans can also lead to market distortions due to differential adverse selection, as integrated plans may use drug formularies to induce enrollment by patients that are profitable in the medical insurance market. We study the design of insurance plans in Medicare Part D and find that formularies reflect these two differences in incentives.
DOI: 10.3886/e114694
title: Replication data for: The Evolution of Physician Practice Styles: Evidence from Cardiologist Migration

description: Physician treatment choices for observably similar patients vary dramatically across regions. This paper exploits cardiologist migration to disentangle the role of physician-specific factors such as preferences and learned behavior versus environment-level factors such as hospital capacity and productivity spillovers on physician behavior. Physicians starting in the same region and subsequently moving to dissimilar regions practice similarly before the move. After the move, physician behavior in the first year changes by 0.6–0.8 percentage points for each percentage point change in practice environment, with no further changes over time. This suggests environment factors explain between 60–80 percent of regional disparities in physician behavior.
DOI: 10.3886/e114694v1
title: Replication data for: The Evolution of Physician Practice Styles: Evidence from Cardiologist Migration

description: Physician treatment choices for observably similar patients vary dramatically across regions. This paper exploits cardiologist migration to disentangle the role of physician-specific factors such as preferences and learned behavior versus environment-level factors such as hospital capacity and productivity spillovers on physician behavior. Physicians starting in the same region and subsequently moving to dissimilar regions practice similarly before the move. After the move, physician behavior in the first year changes by 0.6–0.8 percentage points for each percentage point change in practice environment, with no further changes over time. This suggests environment factors explain between 60–80 percent of regional disparities in physician behavior.
DOI: 10.3886/e113738
title: Replication data for: Age at Arrival, English Proficiency, and Social Assimilation among US Immigrants

description: Are the English proficiency and social outcomes of US immigrants the result of their cultural preferences or of more fundamental constraints? Using 2000 census microdata, we relate the English proficiency, marriage, fertility, and residential location variables of immigrants to their age at the time of arrival in the United States, and, in particular, whether that age fell within the "critical period" of language acquisition. We interpret the differences between younger and older arrivers as effects of English language skills and construct an instrumental variable for English language skills. Two-stage-least-squares estimates suggest English proficiency increases the likelihood of divorce and intermarriage. It decreases fertility and, for some, ethnic enclave residence. (JEL J11, J13, J61, R23, Z13)
DOI: 10.3886/e113738v1
title: Replication data for: Age at Arrival, English Proficiency, and Social Assimilation among US Immigrants

description: Are the English proficiency and social outcomes of US immigrants the result of their cultural preferences or of more fundamental constraints? Using 2000 census microdata, we relate the English proficiency, marriage, fertility, and residential location variables of immigrants to their age at the time of arrival in the United States, and, in particular, whether that age fell within the "critical period" of language acquisition. We interpret the differences between younger and older arrivers as effects of English language skills and construct an instrumental variable for English language skills. Two-stage-least-squares estimates suggest English proficiency increases the likelihood of divorce and intermarriage. It decreases fertility and, for some, ethnic enclave residence. (JEL J11, J13, J61, R23, Z13)