DOI: 10.5061/dryad.7h44j103z
title: Data from: Winners and losers from climate change: An analysis of tree growth and survival responses to temperature and precipitation for roughly 150 species across the contiguous U.S.

description: Changes in temperature and precipitation are already influencing United
 States (U.S.) forests and that will continue in the future even as we
 mitigate climate change. Using spatiotemporally matched data for mean
 annual temperature (MAT) and mean annual precipitation (MAP), we used
 simulated annealing to estimate critical thresholds for changes in the
 growth and survival of roughly 150 tree species (153 spp. for growth, 159
 spp. for survival) across the conterminous U.S. (CONUS). We found that
 growth of nearly one third of tree species assessed (44 spp.) decreased
 with any increase in MAT (42-49 species), whereas fewer responded
 negatively to projected regional trends in MAP (&lt;20 species each in
 the east and west). Hypothetical increases in temperature (+1oC, +2oC)
 increased average annual growth in the Central East and Pacific Northwest
 and decreased growth over large areas of the Rockies and Southeast, while
 decadal survival generally decreased with temperature. Average annual
 growth and decadal survival had unfavorable associations with projected
 precipitation, generally decreasing with wetter conditions (+25%) in the
 east and decreasing with drier conditions (-25%) in the west. Beyond these
 averages, there were species that positively and negatively responded
 nearly everywhere across the CONUS, suggesting changes in forest
 composition are underway. We identified only eight species out of ~150
 assessed that were tolerant to increases in temperature, and 24 species in
 the east and seven 7 in the west were tolerant to regionally-specific
 trends in precipitation (increases in the east and decreases in the west).
 We assessed confidence on a 5-point scale (1-5) for four aspects of
 uncertainty. Average confidence scores were generally high, though some
 species and metrics had low confidence scores especially for survival.
 These findings have significant implications for the future national
 forest carbon sink and for conservation efforts in the face of climate
 change.
description: # Data from: Winners and losers from climate change: An analysis of tree
 growth and survival responses to temperature and precipitation for roughly
 150 species across the contiguous U.S.
 [https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.7h44j103z](https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.7h44j103z) ## Description of the data and file structure This data was collated in support of the manuscript "Winners and losers from climate change: An analysis of climate thresholds for tree growth and survival for roughly 150 species across the contiguous United States" ### Files and variables #### File: Figure\_S8\_contour\_plots.zip **Description:** This is Figure S8 which are the contour plots by species (see description of Figure 5 for additional information). This is the same information as in Figure 5, but individually by species. #### File: All\_Data.zip **Description:** This zipped folder has all the input data (#1-3 below) and output data (#4-12), for the manuscript. There are 12 tabular data files in this zipped folder: Raw plot level input data used to develop the models: 1.       For growth: growth_tree_data 2.       For survival: survival_tree_data 3.       Metadata for both: tree_data_metadata Output model parameters and other output information for all seeds and models (metadata embedded in files). The R scripts in the zipped folder “R code_Sim Anneal.zip” generate these: 4.       For growth: Table S16_growth_model_fit_summaries_final_v4.xlsx 5.       For survival: Table S17_survival_model_fit_summaries_final_v4.xlsx. A summary of the FIA and predictor information by species (metadata embedded in files) 6.       For growth: Table S14_growth_tree_data_Summary by species.xlsx 7.       For survival: Table S15_survival_tree_data_Summary by species.xlsx Plot-level summaries (e.g., mean effect in the plot, 10th percentile, etc.) of the best models applied for each species (See Figures 3 and 6 for reference): 8.       For growth-temperature effects: plt_level_growth_temp_summary) 9.       For growth-precipitation effects (plt_level_growth_precip_summary) 10.   For survival-temperature effects (plt_level_survival_temp_summary), 11.   For survival-precipitation effects (plt_level_survival_precip_summary). 12.   Metadata for these is also provided (plt_level_summary_metadata). #### File: R code\_Sim Anneal.zip **Description:** This zipped folder has all the R code associated with running the simulated annealing that generates the models assessed (also produces #4-5 below). Separate readme file within the zipped folder. #### File: R\_code\_Processing results from Sim Anneal.zip **Description:** This zipped folder has all the R code associated with generating the summary files and maps associated with the manuscript. Separate readme file within the zipped folder. ## Code/software This is all described in the readme files.  ## Access information Other publicly accessible locations of the data: * None Data was derived from the following sources: * Described in the manuscript ### Change Log 11/12/2024: Re-organized the meta-data to be with the data per request from journal. 11/14/2024: Added two zipped folders of R code: (1) R code for running the simulated annealing (R_code_Sim_Anneal.zip) which includes source data and ancillary files and (2) R code for post-processing the simulated annealing output into maps and other summaries (R_code_Processing_results_from_Sim_Anneal).