DOI: 10.57707/fmi-b2share.8ceb3da6ce144180b5304ad080af88af
title: Files containing data in Figures 1-6 in the manuscript Korhonen N. et al. "The usefulness of Extended-Range Probabilistic Forecasts for Heat wave forecasts in Europe"

description: Files containing data in Figures 1-6 in the manuscript Korhonen N. et al. "The usefulness of Extended-Range Probabilistic Forecasts for Heat wave forecasts in Europe".

Files and their contents:
Fig1a_Heatwave_lower_threshold_ERA5.nc
Data of Fig1a: The lower thresholds of heat wave days: the 90th percentile of the 5-day moving average temperature in summers 2000-2019 of the ERA5 reanalyses (Hersbach, et al. 2020).

Data of Fig1b: The lower thresholds of heat wave days: the 90th percentile of the 5-day moving average temperature in summers 2000-2019 of the ensembles of the 
extended range hindcasts of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecasting System (IFS; Cycles 46r1 and 47r1; Vitart, 2014) in forecast week 1.

Fig1c_Heatwave_lower_threshold_EC_fc_LeadTime2week.nc
Data of Fig1c: The lower thresholds of heat wave days: the 90th percentile of the 5-day moving average temperature in summers 2000-2019 of the ensembles of the ECMWF’s hindcasts in forecast week 2.

Fig1d_Heatwave_lower_threshold_EC_fc_LeadTime3week.nc
Data of Fig1d: The lower thresholds of heat wave days: the 90th percentile of the 5-day moving average temperature in summers 2000-2019 of the ensembles of the ECMWF’s hindcasts in forecast week 3.

Fig1e_Heatwave_lower_threshold_EC_fc_LeadTime4week.nc
Data of Fig1e: The lower thresholds of heat wave days: the 90th percentile of the 5-day moving average temperature in summers 2000-2019 of the ensembles of the ECMWF’s hindcasts in forecast week 4.

Fig2a_LHWMD_ERA5.nc
Data of Fig2a: The duration of the longest period of heat wave days in each grid point over Europe defined from the ERA5 reanalysis data of summers 2000-2019. 
Fig2b_HWNP_ERA5.nc
Data of Fig2b: the number of periods with heat wave days in the ERA5 reanalyses during 2000-2019.

Fig3a_sharpness_diagram.txt
Data of the sharpness diagram in Fig. 3a.
Fig3b_reliability_diagram.txt
Data of the reliability diagram in Fig. 3b.

Fig4a_BSS_Week1_All_hindcasts.nc
Fig4b_BSS_Week1_longest_HWS_only.nc
Fig4c_BSS_Week1_excluding_longest_HW.nc
Fig4d_BSS_Week2_All_hindcasts.nc
Fig4e_BSS_Week2_longest_HWS_only.nc
Fig4f_BSS_Week2_excluding_longest_HW.nc
Fig4g_BSS_Week3_All_hindcasts.nc
Fig4h_BSS_Week3_longest_HWS_only.nc
Fig4i_BSS_Week3_excluding_longest_HW.nc
Fig4j_BSS_Week4_All_hindcasts.nc
Fig4k_BSS_Week4_longest_HWS_only.nc
Fig4l_BSS_Week4_excluding_longest_HW.nc
Data of the BSS in Figures 4a-l.

Figure5a_ForecastWeek1.txt
Figure5b_ForecastWeek2.txt
Figure5c_ForecastWeek3.txt
Figure5d_ForecastWeek4.txt
Data of the boxplots in Figures 5a-d.

Figure6a_ForecastWeek1.txt
Figure6a_ForecastWeek2.txt
Figure6a_ForecastWeek3.txt
Figure6a_ForecastWeek4.txt
Data of the boxplots in Figures 6a-d.

Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., et al.: The ERA5 Global Reanalysis, Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 146, 1999-2049, doi:10.1002/qj.3803, 2020.
Vitart F.: Evolution of ECMWF sub-seasonal forecast skill scores, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 140, 1889–1899, doi: 10.1002/qj.2256, 2014.