DOI: 10.7910/dvn/ffvfcr
title: Replication Data for: Uncovering hazards and adaptive capacity: A comprehensive risk assessment study in three contrasted conservation areas in Spain

description: The increase in the frequency, duration and severity of disturbances can disrupt forest composition and structure, posing threats to ecosystem services. Adaptive forest management has the potential to adjust forests to future disturbance regimes, by reducing their susceptibility, increasing their adaptative capacity. However, there is currently few comprehensive studies that integrates the interactions of adaptive forest management across contrasted biomass in National Parks of the same region, and examining how global change might affect them in the near future. In this study, we integrate forest inventory, wildfires, high-resolution climate and pest data under climate model projections to assess climate-sensitive risks associated with key abiotic disturbances (such as fires, droughts and pests) in coniferous mountain Mediterranean forests, considering various forest management approaches and climate scenarios across three Spanish National Parks. We employed the conceptual framework introduced by Lecina-Diaz et al. (2020) to evaluate forest risks, considering Exposed values (E), Hazard Magnitude (HM), Susceptibility (S) and Lack of Adaptive Capacity (LAC). We applied statistical weights based on expert weights and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to determine the global ranking score of each indicator of the risk components. We extracted information about the climatic scenarios from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 to assess the impact on the ecosystem service evaluated and the change between the current and future projected values. Three forest management scenarios were generated called “low intervention», «traditional silviculture”, and "reduction of climate vulnerability". Finally, map representation of risks of carbon sequestration for the different scenarios was obtained. The importance of each component was estimated using the AHP. The Aridity Index and the Fire Risk Index, with a weight of 27.7% and 24.2%, were the first significant indicators to affect HM, fuel load (29.0%) and Suppression Difficulty index (21.0%) for S and forest management (32.0%) and resprouting capacity (22.0%) for LAC. The three forest management scenarios considered showed different risk values, decreasing with the intensity of the intervention in the three protected areas. Likewise, when two climate scenarios were considered, in all protected areas there was an increase in risk (National Park of Teide, 10.69%; National Park of Sierra Nevada, 10.9%; National Park of Sierra de las Nieves, 6.17%). The spatial arrangement of risk, which include HM, S, and LAC, displayed consistent patterns depending on the risk level with the highest risk values concentrated in the buffer areas (Natural Parks), aligning with areas that have a greater presence of forest plantations. The maps associated with the risks allow the identification of critical areas during extreme conditions where the greatest disturbance events can occur. Our study underscores that perturbation risks in dominated coniferous mountain ecosystems within Protected Areas can be modulated by forest management and climate change. The implantation of forest management adaptation strategies in National Parks and buffer areas has shown effectiveness in reducing perturbations risks and preserving certain Ecosystem Services as carbon sequestration.