cometadata/datacite-titles-descriptions-related-identifiers huggingface dataset:
DOI: 10.3886/e112930
title: Replication data for: Bounding the Labor Supply Responses to a Randomized Welfare Experiment: A Revealed Preference Approach

description: We study the short-term impact of Connecticut's Jobs First welfare reform experiment on women's labor supply and welfare participation decisions. A nonparametric optimizing model is shown to restrict the set of counterfactual choices compatible with each woman's actual choice. These revealed preference restrictions yield informative bounds on the frequency of several intensive and extensive margin responses to the experiment. We find that welfare reform induced many women to work but led some others to reduce their earnings in order to receive assistance. The bounds on this latter "opt-in" effect imply that intensive margin labor supply responses are nontrivial. (JEL H23, H75, I38, J16, J22)
DOI: 10.3886/e112930v1
title: Replication data for: Bounding the Labor Supply Responses to a Randomized Welfare Experiment: A Revealed Preference Approach

description: We study the short-term impact of Connecticut's Jobs First welfare reform experiment on women's labor supply and welfare participation decisions. A nonparametric optimizing model is shown to restrict the set of counterfactual choices compatible with each woman's actual choice. These revealed preference restrictions yield informative bounds on the frequency of several intensive and extensive margin responses to the experiment. We find that welfare reform induced many women to work but led some others to reduce their earnings in order to receive assistance. The bounds on this latter "opt-in" effect imply that intensive margin labor supply responses are nontrivial. (JEL H23, H75, I38, J16, J22)
DOI: 10.3886/e112931
title: Replication data for: Delinking Land Rights from Land Use: Certification and Migration in Mexico

description: In many developing countries property rights over rural land are maintained through continuous personal use instead of by land titles. We show that removing the link between land use and land rights through the issuance of ownership certificates can result in large-scale adjustments to labor and land allocations. Using the rollout of the Mexican land certification program from 1993 to 2006, we find that households obtaining certificates were subsequently 28 percent more likely to have a migrant member. We also show that even though land certification induced migration, it had little effect on cultivated area due to consolidation of farm units. (JEL O13, O17, P14, Q15, Q18, Q24, Q28)
DOI: 10.3886/e112931v1
title: Replication data for: Delinking Land Rights from Land Use: Certification and Migration in Mexico

description: In many developing countries property rights over rural land are maintained through continuous personal use instead of by land titles. We show that removing the link between land use and land rights through the issuance of ownership certificates can result in large-scale adjustments to labor and land allocations. Using the rollout of the Mexican land certification program from 1993 to 2006, we find that households obtaining certificates were subsequently 28 percent more likely to have a migrant member. We also show that even though land certification induced migration, it had little effect on cultivated area due to consolidation of farm units. (JEL O13, O17, P14, Q15, Q18, Q24, Q28)
DOI: 10.3886/e113054
title: Replication data for: Asymmetric Information and Imperfect Competition in Lending Markets

description: We study the effects of asymmetric information and imperfect competition in the market for small business lines of credit. We estimate a structural model of credit demand, loan use, pricing, and firm default using matched firm-bank data from Italy. We find evidence of adverse selection in the form of a positive correlation between the unobserved determinants of demand for credit and default. Our counterfactual experiments show that while increases in adverse selection increase prices and defaults on average, reducing credit supply, banks' market power can mitigate these negative effects.
DOI: 10.3886/e113054v1
title: Replication data for: Asymmetric Information and Imperfect Competition in Lending Markets

description: We study the effects of asymmetric information and imperfect competition in the market for small business lines of credit. We estimate a structural model of credit demand, loan use, pricing, and firm default using matched firm-bank data from Italy. We find evidence of adverse selection in the form of a positive correlation between the unobserved determinants of demand for credit and default. Our counterfactual experiments show that while increases in adverse selection increase prices and defaults on average, reducing credit supply, banks' market power can mitigate these negative effects.
DOI: 10.3886/e112607
title: Replication data for: Assessing the Incidence and Efficiency of a Prominent Place Based Policy

description: This paper empirically assesses the incidence and efficiency of Round I of the federal urban Empowerment Zone (EZ ) program using confidential microdata from the Decennial Census and the Longitudinal Business Database. Using rejected and future applicants to the EZ program as controls, we find that EZ designation substantially increased employment in zone neighborhoods and generated wage increases for local workers without corresponding increases in population or the local cost of living. The results suggest the efficiency costs of first Round EZs were relatively modest. (JEL H26, H77, J31, R23, R58)
DOI: 10.3886/e112608
title: Replication data for: Selection, Agriculture, and Cross-Country Productivity Differences

description: Cross-country labor productivity differences are larger in agriculture than in non-agriculture. We propose a new explanation for these patterns in which the self-selection of heterogeneous workers determines sector productivity. We formalize our theory in a general-equilibrium Roy model in which preferences feature a subsistence food requirement. In the model, subsistence requirements induce workers that are relatively unproductive at agricultural work to nonetheless select into the agriculture sector in poor countries. When parameterized, the model predicts that productivity differences are roughly twice as large in agriculture as non-agriculture even when countries differ by an economy-wide efficiency term that affects both sectors uniformly. (JEL J24, J31, J43, O11, O13, O40)
DOI: 10.3886/e112608v1
title: Replication data for: Selection, Agriculture, and Cross-Country Productivity Differences

description: Cross-country labor productivity differences are larger in agriculture than in non-agriculture. We propose a new explanation for these patterns in which the self-selection of heterogeneous workers determines sector productivity. We formalize our theory in a general-equilibrium Roy model in which preferences feature a subsistence food requirement. In the model, subsistence requirements induce workers that are relatively unproductive at agricultural work to nonetheless select into the agriculture sector in poor countries. When parameterized, the model predicts that productivity differences are roughly twice as large in agriculture as non-agriculture even when countries differ by an economy-wide efficiency term that affects both sectors uniformly. (JEL J24, J31, J43, O11, O13, O40)
DOI: 10.3886/e112609
title: Replication data for: Testing for Racial Differences in the Mental Ability of Young Children

description: Using a new nationally representative dataset, we find minor differences in test outcomes between black and white infants that disappear with a limited set of controls. However, relative to whites, all other races lose substantial ground by age two. Combining our estimates with results in prior literature, we show that a simple model with assortative mating fits our data well, implying that differences in children's environments between racial groups can fully explain gaps in intelligence. If parental ability influences a child's test scores both genetically and through environment, then our findings are less informative and can be reconciled with a wide range of racial differences in inherited intelligence.
DOI: 10.3886/e112609v1
title: Replication data for: Testing for Racial Differences in the Mental Ability of Young Children

description: Using a new nationally representative dataset, we find minor differences in test outcomes between black and white infants that disappear with a limited set of controls. However, relative to whites, all other races lose substantial ground by age two. Combining our estimates with results in prior literature, we show that a simple model with assortative mating fits our data well, implying that differences in children's environments between racial groups can fully explain gaps in intelligence. If parental ability influences a child's test scores both genetically and through environment, then our findings are less informative and can be reconciled with a wide range of racial differences in inherited intelligence.
DOI: 10.3886/e112610
title: Replication data for: Comparisons of Weekly Hours over the Past Century and the Importance of Work-Sharing Policies in the 1930s

description: Changes in the work week drove a larger portion of changes in total labor input during the Great Depression of the 1930s than during other decades. Work-sharing policies appear to be responsible. Herbert Hoover created various work-sharing committees--led by key industrialists--which pushed for shorter work weeks. And Franklin Roosevelt's President's Reemployment Agreement called for sharp cuts in weekly work hours. Spreading available work amongst more people was the goal. During these periods between 50 and 90 percent of declines in labor input were accommodated by falling hours. In recent decades employers have instead relied on layoffs to achieve the same end.
DOI: 10.3886/e112610v1
title: Replication data for: Comparisons of Weekly Hours over the Past Century and the Importance of Work-Sharing Policies in the 1930s

description: Changes in the work week drove a larger portion of changes in total labor input during the Great Depression of the 1930s than during other decades. Work-sharing policies appear to be responsible. Herbert Hoover created various work-sharing committees--led by key industrialists--which pushed for shorter work weeks. And Franklin Roosevelt's President's Reemployment Agreement called for sharp cuts in weekly work hours. Spreading available work amongst more people was the goal. During these periods between 50 and 90 percent of declines in labor input were accommodated by falling hours. In recent decades employers have instead relied on layoffs to achieve the same end.
DOI: 10.3886/e112611v1
title: Replication data for: Are Government Spending Multipliers Greater during Periods of Slack? Evidence from Twentieth-Century Historical Data

description: A key question that has arisen during recent debates is whether government spending multipliers are larger during times when resources are idle. This paper seeks to shed light on this question by analyzing new quarterly historical data covering multiple large wars and depressions in the United States and Canada. Using Jorda's (2005) method for estimating impulse responses, we find no evidence that multipliers are greater during periods of high unemployment in the United States. In every case, they are below unity. We do find evidence of higher multipliers during periods of slack in Canada, with some multipliers above unity.
DOI: 10.3886/e112932
title: Replication data for: Monitoring Corruptible Politicians

description: Does monitoring corrupt activities induce a sustained reduction in corruption? Using longitudinal data on audits of municipal governments in Puerto Rico, we show corruption is considerably lower in municipalities with timely audits—before elections. However, these municipalities do not exhibit decreased levels of corruption in subsequent audits, even while mayors in these benefit from higher reelection rates. Our results suggest that audits enable voters to select responsive but corruptible politicians to office. Audit programs must disseminate results when they are most relevant for voters—shortly before an election—and ensure that these programs are sustained, long-term commitments.
DOI: 10.3886/e112932v1
title: Replication data for: Monitoring Corruptible Politicians

description: Does monitoring corrupt activities induce a sustained reduction in corruption? Using longitudinal data on audits of municipal governments in Puerto Rico, we show corruption is considerably lower in municipalities with timely audits—before elections. However, these municipalities do not exhibit decreased levels of corruption in subsequent audits, even while mayors in these benefit from higher reelection rates. Our results suggest that audits enable voters to select responsive but corruptible politicians to office. Audit programs must disseminate results when they are most relevant for voters—shortly before an election—and ensure that these programs are sustained, long-term commitments.
DOI: 10.3886/e112933
title: Replication data for: Medicare Part D: Are Insurers Gaming the Low Income Subsidy Design?

description: This paper shows how in Medicare Part D insurers' gaming of the subsidy paid to low-income enrollees distorts premiums and raises the program cost. Using plan-level data from the first five years of the program, I find multiple instances of pricing strategy distortions for the largest insurers. Instrumental variable estimates indicate that the changes in a concentration index measuring the manipulability of the subsidy can explain a large share of the premium growth observed between 2006 and 2011. Removing this distortion could reduce the cost of the program without worsening consumer welfare. (JEL G22, H51, I13, I18)
DOI: 10.3886/e112933v1
title: Replication data for: Medicare Part D: Are Insurers Gaming the Low Income Subsidy Design?

description: This paper shows how in Medicare Part D insurers' gaming of the subsidy paid to low-income enrollees distorts premiums and raises the program cost. Using plan-level data from the first five years of the program, I find multiple instances of pricing strategy distortions for the largest insurers. Instrumental variable estimates indicate that the changes in a concentration index measuring the manipulability of the subsidy can explain a large share of the premium growth observed between 2006 and 2011. Removing this distortion could reduce the cost of the program without worsening consumer welfare. (JEL G22, H51, I13, I18)
DOI: 10.3886/e112934
title: Replication data for: A Seniority Arrangement for Sovereign Debt

description: A sovereign's inability to commit to a course of action regarding future borrowing and default behavior makes long-term debt costly (the problem of debt dilution). One mechanism to mitigate this problem is the inclusion of a seniority clause in debt contracts. In the event of default, creditors are to be paid off in the order in which they lent (the "absolute priority" or "first-in-time" rule). In this paper, we propose a modification of the absolute priority rule suited to sovereign debts contracts and analyze its positive and normative implications within a quantitatively realistic model of sovereign debt and default. (JEL E32, E44, F34, G15, H63, O16, O19)
DOI: 10.3886/e112934v1
title: Replication data for: A Seniority Arrangement for Sovereign Debt

description: A sovereign's inability to commit to a course of action regarding future borrowing and default behavior makes long-term debt costly (the problem of debt dilution). One mechanism to mitigate this problem is the inclusion of a seniority clause in debt contracts. In the event of default, creditors are to be paid off in the order in which they lent (the "absolute priority" or "first-in-time" rule). In this paper, we propose a modification of the absolute priority rule suited to sovereign debts contracts and analyze its positive and normative implications within a quantitatively realistic model of sovereign debt and default. (JEL E32, E44, F34, G15, H63, O16, O19)
DOI: 10.3886/e112935
title: Replication data for: Vehicle Scrappage and Gasoline Policy

description: We estimate the sensitivity of scrap decisions to changes in used car values and show how this "scrap elasticity" produces emissions leakage under fuel efficiency standards, a process known as the Gruenspecht effect. We first estimate the effect of gasoline prices on used vehicle values and scrappage of vehicles with different fuel economies. We then estimate the scrap elasticity itself, which we find to be -0.7. When applied in a model of fuel economy standards, 13-16 percent of the expected fuel savings leak away through the used vehicle market. This effect rivals or exceeds the importance of the often-cited mileage rebound effect. (JEL H23, L62, L78, Q35, Q38, Q48, Q58)
DOI: 10.3886/e112935v1
title: Replication data for: Vehicle Scrappage and Gasoline Policy

description: We estimate the sensitivity of scrap decisions to changes in used car values and show how this "scrap elasticity" produces emissions leakage under fuel efficiency standards, a process known as the Gruenspecht effect. We first estimate the effect of gasoline prices on used vehicle values and scrappage of vehicles with different fuel economies. We then estimate the scrap elasticity itself, which we find to be -0.7. When applied in a model of fuel economy standards, 13-16 percent of the expected fuel savings leak away through the used vehicle market. This effect rivals or exceeds the importance of the often-cited mileage rebound effect. (JEL H23, L62, L78, Q35, Q38, Q48, Q58)
DOI: 10.3886/e112936v1
title: Replication data for: Sticky Leverage

description: We develop a tractable general equilibrium model that captures the interplay between nominal long-term corporate debt, inflation, and real aggregates. We show that unanticipated inflation changes the real burden of debt and, more significantly, leads to a debt overhang that distorts future investment and production decisions. For these effects to be both large and very persistent, it is essential that debt maturity exceeds one period. We also show that interest rate rules can help stabilize our economy.
DOI: 10.3886/e113053
title: Replication data for: Can Tracking Raise the Test Scores of High-Ability Minority Students?

description: We evaluate a tracking program in a large urban district where schools with at least one gifted fourth grader create a separate "gifted/high achiever" classroom. Most seats are filled by non-gifted high achievers, ranked by previous-year test scores. We study the program's effects on the high achievers using (i) a rank-based regression discontinuity design, and (ii) a between-school/cohort analysis. We find significant effects that are concentrated among black and Hispanic participants. Minorities gain 0.5 standard deviation units in fourth-grade reading and math scores, with persistent gains through sixth grade. We find no evidence of negative or positive spillovers on nonparticipants.
DOI: 10.3886/e112611
title: Replication data for: Are Government Spending Multipliers Greater during Periods of Slack? Evidence from Twentieth-Century Historical Data

description: A key question that has arisen during recent debates is whether government spending multipliers are larger during times when resources are idle. This paper seeks to shed light on this question by analyzing new quarterly historical data covering multiple large wars and depressions in the United States and Canada. Using Jorda's (2005) method for estimating impulse responses, we find no evidence that multipliers are greater during periods of high unemployment in the United States. In every case, they are below unity. We do find evidence of higher multipliers during periods of slack in Canada, with some multipliers above unity.
DOI: 10.3886/e112612v1
title: Replication data for: Output Spillovers from Fiscal Policy

description: For a large number of OECD countries we estimate the cross-country spillover effects of government purchases on output. Following the methodology in Auerbach and Gorodnichenko (2012a, b), we allow these multipliers to vary smoothly according to the state of the economy and use real-time forecast data to purge policy innovations of their predictable components. Our findings suggest that cross-country spillovers have an important impact. The findings also confirm those of our earlier papers--namely that fiscal shocks have a larger impact when the affected country is in recession.
DOI: 10.3886/e112613
title: Replication data for: Forecasting the Recovery from the Great Recession: Is This Time Different?

description: This paper asks whether the slow recovery of the US economy from the trough of the Great Recession was anticipated, and identifies some of the factors that contributed to surprises in the course of the recovery. We construct a narrative using news reports and government announcements to identify policy and financial shocks. We then compare forecasts and forecast revisions of GDP to the narrative. Successive financial and fiscal shocks emanating from Europe, together with self-inflicted wounds from the political stalemate over the US fiscal situation, help explain the slowing of the pace of an already slow recovery.
DOI: 10.3886/e112613v1
title: Replication data for: Forecasting the Recovery from the Great Recession: Is This Time Different?

description: This paper asks whether the slow recovery of the US economy from the trough of the Great Recession was anticipated, and identifies some of the factors that contributed to surprises in the course of the recovery. We construct a narrative using news reports and government announcements to identify policy and financial shocks. We then compare forecasts and forecast revisions of GDP to the narrative. Successive financial and fiscal shocks emanating from Europe, together with self-inflicted wounds from the political stalemate over the US fiscal situation, help explain the slowing of the pace of an already slow recovery.
DOI: 10.3886/e112614
title: Replication data for: Income Inequality, Mobility, and Turnover at the Top in the US, 1987-2010

description: While cross-sectional data show increasing income inequality in the United States, it is also important to examine how incomes change over time. Using income tax data, this paper provides new evidence on long-term and intergenerational mobility, and persistence at the top of the income distribution. Half of those aged 35-40 in the top or bottom quintile in 1987 remain there in 2007; the others have moved up or down. While 30 percent of dependents aged 15-18 from bottom quintile households are themselves in the bottom quintile after 20 years, most have moved up. Persistence is lower in the highest income groups.
DOI: 10.3886/e112614v1
title: Replication data for: Income Inequality, Mobility, and Turnover at the Top in the US, 1987-2010

description: While cross-sectional data show increasing income inequality in the United States, it is also important to examine how incomes change over time. Using income tax data, this paper provides new evidence on long-term and intergenerational mobility, and persistence at the top of the income distribution. Half of those aged 35-40 in the top or bottom quintile in 1987 remain there in 2007; the others have moved up or down. While 30 percent of dependents aged 15-18 from bottom quintile households are themselves in the bottom quintile after 20 years, most have moved up. Persistence is lower in the highest income groups.