DOI: 10.5061/dryad.gb5mkkwk8
title: Importance of spatio-temporal connectivity to maintain species experiencing range shifts

description: Climate change can affect the habitat resources available to species by
 changing habitat quantity, suitability and spatial configuration, which
 largely determine population persistence in the landscape. In this
 context, dispersal is a central process for species to track their niche.
 Assessments of the amount of reachable habitat (ARH) using static
 snap-shots do not account, however, for the temporal overlap of habitat
 patches that may enhance stepping-stone effects. Here, we quantified the
 impacts of climate change on the ARH using a spatio-temporal connectivity
 model. We first explored the importance of spatio-temporal connectivity
 relative to purely spatial connectivity in a changing climate by
 generating virtual species distributions and analyzed the relative effects
 of changes in habitat quantity, suitability and configuration. Then, we
 studied the importance of spatio-temporal connectivity in three vertebrate
 species with divergent responses to climate change in North America (grey
 wolf, Canadian lynx and white-tailed deer). We found that the
 spatio-temporal connectivity could enhance the stepping-stone effect for
 species predicted to experience range contractions, and the relative
 importance of the spatio-temporal connectivity increased with the
 reduction in habitat quantity and suitability. Conversely, for species
 that are likely to expand their ranges, spatio-temporal connectivity had
 no additional contribution to improve the ARH. We also found that changes
 in habitat amount (quantity and suitability) were more influential than
 changes in habitat configuration in determining the relative importance of
 spatio-temporal connectivity. We conclude that spatio-temporal
 connectivity may provide less biased and more realistic estimates of
 habitat connectivity than purely spatial connectivity.
description: In the study, first, we used theoretical simulations by
 generating virtual species distributions, to explore the effect sizes of
 changes in habitat quantity, suitability and spatial configuration on the
 relative importance of spatio-temporal connectivity. These analysis were
 conducted through the combination of R scripts and a command version of
 software package "Conefor.exe" (Saura and Torne 2009). The R
 scripts to perform these analyses are "theoretic simulation.R",
 "runConefor. R", "main.R" and "statistical
 analysis.R" in the folder "R script"; and the generated
 results were put in the folder "virtual species". The software
 package "Conefor.exe" could be freely accessible through the
 supporting information of Martensen et al., 2017, or at Conefor.org. After downloading "Conefor.exe", it should be put in the sub-folder "input files" to ensure the successful runs of scripts "runConefor.R" and "main.R". Second, we explored the importance of spatio-temporal connectivity to three real species residing in sourthern and central Ontario, Canada, with divergent responses to climate change. These species include: white-tailed deer, Canada Lynx and grey wolf. The R scripts to perform analyses for real species include: "species distribution model.R", "runConefor. R" and "main.R". The generated results are put in the folder "actual species".