cometadata/datacite-titles-descriptions-related-identifiers huggingface dataset:
DOI: 10.3886/e113947
title: Replication data for: The Rise and Fall of Disability Insurance Enrollment in the Netherlands

description: As recently as 15 years ago, the high level of Disability Insurance (DI) enrollment was considered to be one of the major social and economic problems of the Netherlands; indeed, the Netherlands was characterized as the country with the most out-of-control disability program of OECD countries. But since about 2002, the Netherlands has seen a spectacular decline in its Disability Insurance enrollment rate. Radical reforms to the Dutch DI system were implemented over the period 1996 to 2006. We cluster these reforms in three broad categories: 1) reducing the incentives of employers to move workers to disability; 2) increased gatekeeping; and 3) tightening disability eligibility criteria while enhancing worker incentives. The reforms appear to have been very effective. Since 2002, yearly DI inflow rates dropped from 1.5 percent in 2001 to about 0.5 percent of the insured population in 2012. We argue that particularly the interaction of employer incentives and formal employer obligations has contributed to the substantial decrease in DI inflow. On the downside, however, it seems workers with bad health have sorted into temporary employment—without employers bearing the financial responsibility of their benefit costs.
DOI: 10.3886/e113948
title: Replication data for: Disability Benefit Receipt and Reform: Reconciling Trends in the United Kingdom

description: The UK has enacted a number of reforms to the structure of disability benefits that has made it a major case study for other countries thinking of reform. The introduction of Incapacity Benefit in 1995 coincided with a strong decline in disability benefit expenditure, reversing previous sharp increases. From 2008 the replacement of Incapacity Benefit with Employment and Support Allowance was intended to reduce spending further. We bring together administrative and survey data over the period and highlight key differences in receipt of disability benefits by age, sex, and health. These disability benefit reforms and the trends in receipt are also put into the context of broader trends in health and employment by education and sex. We document a growing proportion of claimants in any age group with mental and behavioral disorders as their principal health condition. We also show the decline in the number of older working age men receiving disability benefits to have been partially offset by growth in the number of younger women receiving these benefits. We speculate on the impact of disability reforms on employment.
DOI: 10.3886/e113949
title: Replication data for: Systematic Bias and Nontransparency in US Social Security Administration Forecasts

description: We offer an evaluation of the Social Security Administration demographic and financial forecasts used to assess the long-term solvency of the Social Security Trust Funds. This same forecasting methodology is also used in evaluating policy proposals put forward by Congress to modify the Social Security program. Ours is the first evaluation to compare the SSA forecasts with observed truth; for example, we compare forecasts made in the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s with outcomes that are now available. We find that Social Security Administration forecasting errors—as evaluated by how accurate the forecasts turned out to be—were approximately unbiased until 2000 and then became systematically biased afterward, and increasingly so over time. Also, most of the forecasting errors since 2000 are in the same direction, consistently misleading users of the forecasts to conclude that the Social Security Trust Funds are in better financial shape than turns out to be the case. Finally, the Social Security Administration's informal uncertainty intervals appear to have become increasingly inaccurate since 2000. At present, the Office of the Chief Actuary, at the Social Security Administration, does not reveal in full how its forecasts are made. Every future Trustees Report, without exception, should include a routine evaluation of all prior forecasts, and a discussion of what forecasting mistakes were made, what was learned from the mistakes, and what actions might be taken to improve forecasts going forward. And the Social Security Administration and its Office of the Chief Actuary should follow best practices in academia and many other parts of government and make their forecasting procedures public and replicable, and should calculate and report calibrated uncertainty intervals for all forecasts.
DOI: 10.3886/e113949v1
title: Replication data for: Systematic Bias and Nontransparency in US Social Security Administration Forecasts

description: We offer an evaluation of the Social Security Administration demographic and financial forecasts used to assess the long-term solvency of the Social Security Trust Funds. This same forecasting methodology is also used in evaluating policy proposals put forward by Congress to modify the Social Security program. Ours is the first evaluation to compare the SSA forecasts with observed truth; for example, we compare forecasts made in the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s with outcomes that are now available. We find that Social Security Administration forecasting errors—as evaluated by how accurate the forecasts turned out to be—were approximately unbiased until 2000 and then became systematically biased afterward, and increasingly so over time. Also, most of the forecasting errors since 2000 are in the same direction, consistently misleading users of the forecasts to conclude that the Social Security Trust Funds are in better financial shape than turns out to be the case. Finally, the Social Security Administration's informal uncertainty intervals appear to have become increasingly inaccurate since 2000. At present, the Office of the Chief Actuary, at the Social Security Administration, does not reveal in full how its forecasts are made. Every future Trustees Report, without exception, should include a routine evaluation of all prior forecasts, and a discussion of what forecasting mistakes were made, what was learned from the mistakes, and what actions might be taken to improve forecasts going forward. And the Social Security Administration and its Office of the Chief Actuary should follow best practices in academia and many other parts of government and make their forecasting procedures public and replicable, and should calculate and report calibrated uncertainty intervals for all forecasts.
DOI: 10.3886/e113950
title: Replication data for: The Rescue of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

description: The imposition of federal conservatorships on September 6, 2008, at the Federal National Mortgage Association and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation—commonly known as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac—was one of the most dramatic events of the financial crisis. These two government-sponsored enterprises play a central role in the US housing finance system, and at the start of their conservatorships held or guaranteed about $5.2 trillion of home mortgage debt. The two firms were often cited as shining examples of public-private partnerships—that is, the harnessing of private capital to advance the social goal of expanding homeownership. But in reality, the hybrid structures of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were destined to fail at some point, owing to their singular exposure to residential real estate and moral hazard incentives emanating from the implicit guarantee of their liabilities. We describe the financial distress experienced by the two firms, the events that led the federal government to take dramatic action in an effort to stabilize housing and financial markets, and the various resolution options available to US policymakers at the time; and we evaluate the success of the choice of conservatorship in terms of its effects on financial markets and financial stability, on mortgage supply, and on the financial position of the two firms themselves. Conservatorship achieved its key short-run goals of stabilizing mortgage markets and promoting financial stability during a period of extreme stress. However, conservatorship was intended to be a temporary fix, not a long-term solution, and more than six years later, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac still remain in conservatorship.
DOI: 10.3886/e113950v1
title: Replication data for: The Rescue of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

description: The imposition of federal conservatorships on September 6, 2008, at the Federal National Mortgage Association and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation—commonly known as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac—was one of the most dramatic events of the financial crisis. These two government-sponsored enterprises play a central role in the US housing finance system, and at the start of their conservatorships held or guaranteed about $5.2 trillion of home mortgage debt. The two firms were often cited as shining examples of public-private partnerships—that is, the harnessing of private capital to advance the social goal of expanding homeownership. But in reality, the hybrid structures of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were destined to fail at some point, owing to their singular exposure to residential real estate and moral hazard incentives emanating from the implicit guarantee of their liabilities. We describe the financial distress experienced by the two firms, the events that led the federal government to take dramatic action in an effort to stabilize housing and financial markets, and the various resolution options available to US policymakers at the time; and we evaluate the success of the choice of conservatorship in terms of its effects on financial markets and financial stability, on mortgage supply, and on the financial position of the two firms themselves. Conservatorship achieved its key short-run goals of stabilizing mortgage markets and promoting financial stability during a period of extreme stress. However, conservatorship was intended to be a temporary fix, not a long-term solution, and more than six years later, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac still remain in conservatorship.
DOI: 10.3886/e113951
title: Replication data for: A Retrospective Look at Rescuing and Restructuring General Motors and Chrysler

description: The rescue of the US automobile industry amid the 2008-2009 recession and financial crisis was a consequential, controversial, and difficult decision made at a fraught moment for the US economy. Both of us were involved in the decision process at the time, but since have moved back to academia. More than five years have passed since the bailout began, and it is timely to look back at this unusual episode of economic policymaking to consider what we got right, what we got wrong, and why. In this article, we describe the events that brought two of the largest industrial companies in the world to seek a bailout from the US government, the analysis that was used to evaluate the decision (including what the alternatives were and whether a rescue would even work), the steps that were taken to rescue and restructure General Motors and Chrysler, and the performance of the US auto industry since the bailout. We close with general lessons to be learned from the episode.
DOI: 10.3886/e113951v1
title: Replication data for: A Retrospective Look at Rescuing and Restructuring General Motors and Chrysler

description: The rescue of the US automobile industry amid the 2008-2009 recession and financial crisis was a consequential, controversial, and difficult decision made at a fraught moment for the US economy. Both of us were involved in the decision process at the time, but since have moved back to academia. More than five years have passed since the bailout began, and it is timely to look back at this unusual episode of economic policymaking to consider what we got right, what we got wrong, and why. In this article, we describe the events that brought two of the largest industrial companies in the world to seek a bailout from the US government, the analysis that was used to evaluate the decision (including what the alternatives were and whether a rescue would even work), the steps that were taken to rescue and restructure General Motors and Chrysler, and the performance of the US auto industry since the bailout. We close with general lessons to be learned from the episode.
DOI: 10.3886/e114103
title: Replication data for: Uncertainty at the Zero Lower Bound

description: When the policy rate is at the zero lower bound (ZLB), an increase in uncertainty regarding the future path of exogenous shocks alters the conditional expectations of relevant prices facing households and firms. Accordingly, an increase in uncertainty alters consumption, inflation, and output to a greater extent when the policy rate is constrained than otherwise. Using an empirically rich sticky-price model calibrated to match key features of the US economy, I find that uncertainty can exacerbate the decline of output by about 10 percent in a deep recession that pushes the policy rate to the ZLB.
DOI: 10.3886/e114103v1
title: Replication data for: Uncertainty at the Zero Lower Bound

description: When the policy rate is at the zero lower bound (ZLB), an increase in uncertainty regarding the future path of exogenous shocks alters the conditional expectations of relevant prices facing households and firms. Accordingly, an increase in uncertainty alters consumption, inflation, and output to a greater extent when the policy rate is constrained than otherwise. Using an empirically rich sticky-price model calibrated to match key features of the US economy, I find that uncertainty can exacerbate the decline of output by about 10 percent in a deep recession that pushes the policy rate to the ZLB.
DOI: 10.3886/e114104
title: Replication data for: Worker Selection, Hiring, and Vacancies

description: This paper incorporates worker selection into a random matching model with multi-worker firms. Unlike the standard Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides (DMP) model, the extended model is compatible with cross-sectional behavior of vacancy yields, which rise with employment growth and worker turnover, but fall with establishment size. Using calibrated versions of the standard and worker selection models, I show that accounting for these patterns has quantitatively important policy implications. I also compare the worker selection and the directed search models. While both models account for these patterns equally well, they differ with regard to labor market policy.
DOI: 10.3886/e114104v1
title: Replication data for: Worker Selection, Hiring, and Vacancies

description: This paper incorporates worker selection into a random matching model with multi-worker firms. Unlike the standard Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides (DMP) model, the extended model is compatible with cross-sectional behavior of vacancy yields, which rise with employment growth and worker turnover, but fall with establishment size. Using calibrated versions of the standard and worker selection models, I show that accounting for these patterns has quantitatively important policy implications. I also compare the worker selection and the directed search models. While both models account for these patterns equally well, they differ with regard to labor market policy.
DOI: 10.3886/e114438
title: Replication data for: Participating or Not? Characteristics of Female Entrepreneurs Participating in and Completing an Entrepreneurial Training Program

description: Who are the female entrepreneurs who end up starting and completing entrepreneurial training programs? In this paper, relying on a large set of baseline characteristics collected before the entrepreneurs are selected into an entrepreneurial training program in Mexico, we analyze how the women entrepreneurs who complete the training program differ from those who do not take it up, as well as how those who take it up but drop off before completing differ from those who do not even start. We uncover large differences in performance and non-cognitive skills but no differences in inputs used.
DOI: 10.3886/e114439
title: Replication data for: Mind The (Profit) Gap: Why Are Female Enterprise Owners Earning Less Than Men?

description: We explore potential causes for the well-documented profit gap between male- and female-owned microenterprises in low-income countries. We use rich data from an ongoing field project in Ghana's garment making sector, and our study sample consists of all garment making firms in a midsize district capital. Even within the same industry, male-owned firms earn nearly twice as much profit as female-owned firms. Furthermore, we find the large and persistent gender difference in profits cannot be explained by our extensive firm- and owner-level characteristics. We conclude that factors outside of individual firm or firm-owner characteristics are likely to be at play.
DOI: 10.3886/e114439v1
title: Replication data for: Mind The (Profit) Gap: Why Are Female Enterprise Owners Earning Less Than Men?

description: We explore potential causes for the well-documented profit gap between male- and female-owned microenterprises in low-income countries. We use rich data from an ongoing field project in Ghana's garment making sector, and our study sample consists of all garment making firms in a midsize district capital. Even within the same industry, male-owned firms earn nearly twice as much profit as female-owned firms. Furthermore, we find the large and persistent gender difference in profits cannot be explained by our extensive firm- and owner-level characteristics. We conclude that factors outside of individual firm or firm-owner characteristics are likely to be at play.
DOI: 10.3886/e114440
title: Replication data for: Is Personal Initiative Training a Substitute or Complement to the Existing Human Capital of Women? Results from a Randomized Trial in Togo

description: Personal initiative training—a psychology-based mindset training program—delivers lasting improvements for female business owners in Togo. Which types of women benefit most? Theories of dynamic complementarity would suggest training should work better for those with higher pre-existing human capital, but there are also reasons why existing human capital might inhibit training participation or substitute for its effects. We examine the heterogeneity in treatment impact according to different types of human capital. We find little evidence of either complementarities or substitutability, suggesting this new business training approach can work for a wide range of human capital levels.
DOI: 10.3886/e114440v1
title: Replication data for: Is Personal Initiative Training a Substitute or Complement to the Existing Human Capital of Women? Results from a Randomized Trial in Togo

description: Personal initiative training—a psychology-based mindset training program—delivers lasting improvements for female business owners in Togo. Which types of women benefit most? Theories of dynamic complementarity would suggest training should work better for those with higher pre-existing human capital, but there are also reasons why existing human capital might inhibit training participation or substitute for its effects. We examine the heterogeneity in treatment impact according to different types of human capital. We find little evidence of either complementarities or substitutability, suggesting this new business training approach can work for a wide range of human capital levels.
DOI: 10.3886/e114441
title: Replication data for: Carbon Pricing Induces Innovation: Evidence from China's Regional Carbon Market Pilots

description: China has launched seven regional pilots of emission trading scheme (ETS) to limit its carbon emissions. Taking advantage of the variations in the regional ETS pilots across regions and sectors and over time, we employ a difference-in-difference-in-differences (DDD) approach to evaluate the effect of ETS on low-carbon innovation at the firm level. Using patent application data of publicly-listed firms in China between 2003 and 2015, we find that the ETS pilots induced innovation in low-carbon technologies. The more active pilots—measured by carbon price and turnover rate of allowance trading—are associated with more intense low-carbon innovation.
DOI: 10.3886/e114441v1
title: Replication data for: Carbon Pricing Induces Innovation: Evidence from China's Regional Carbon Market Pilots

description: China has launched seven regional pilots of emission trading scheme (ETS) to limit its carbon emissions. Taking advantage of the variations in the regional ETS pilots across regions and sectors and over time, we employ a difference-in-difference-in-differences (DDD) approach to evaluate the effect of ETS on low-carbon innovation at the firm level. Using patent application data of publicly-listed firms in China between 2003 and 2015, we find that the ETS pilots induced innovation in low-carbon technologies. The more active pilots—measured by carbon price and turnover rate of allowance trading—are associated with more intense low-carbon innovation.
DOI: 10.3886/e114442
title: Replication data for: Estimating Heterogeneous Consumer Preferences for Restaurants and Travel Time Using Mobile Location Data

description: We estimate a model of consumer choices over restaurants using data from several thousand anonymous mobile phone users. Restaurants have latent characteristics (whose distribution may depend on restaurant observables) that affect consumers' mean utility as well as willingness to travel to the restaurant, while each user has distinct preferences for these latent characteristics. We analyze how consumers reallocate their demand after a restaurant closes to nearby restaurants versus more distant restaurants, comparing our predictions to actual outcomes. We also address counterfactual questions such as what type of restaurant would attract the most consumers in a given location.
DOI: 10.3886/e114442v1
title: Replication data for: Estimating Heterogeneous Consumer Preferences for Restaurants and Travel Time Using Mobile Location Data

description: We estimate a model of consumer choices over restaurants using data from several thousand anonymous mobile phone users. Restaurants have latent characteristics (whose distribution may depend on restaurant observables) that affect consumers' mean utility as well as willingness to travel to the restaurant, while each user has distinct preferences for these latent characteristics. We analyze how consumers reallocate their demand after a restaurant closes to nearby restaurants versus more distant restaurants, comparing our predictions to actual outcomes. We also address counterfactual questions such as what type of restaurant would attract the most consumers in a given location.
DOI: 10.3886/e114443v1
title: Replication data for: The Potential of Digital Credit to Bank the Poor

description: Many households in developing countries lack access to credit: physically providing small loans to poor and remote populations is costly. However, the digitization of developing countries enables a new model: digital credit delivered directly via mobile phones. Mobile money enables inexpensive financial transfers, and mobile phones capture behavior that can predict repayment when mined with machine learning. This paper evaluates the potential for digital credit to reach those excluded from current financial systems.
DOI: 10.3886/e113422
title: Replication data for: Academic Undermatching of High-Achieving Minority Students: Evidence from Race-Neutral and Holistic Admissions Policies

description: College is a pathway to social mobility in the United States. Yet too often high-achieving students from low-income and minorities families fail to apply to selective postsecondary institutions. Our study examines the extent to which academic undermatching occurs among high-achieving minority students by analyzing the application choices of students who undergo two distinct admissions policies. We find that minority students eligible for automatic admissions and those who undergo holistic admissions are both less likely to apply to elite flagship universities than white students, despite being equally qualified based on high school performance. Instead, minorities often opt for lower tier universities.