DOI: 10.5285/b96e2225918348e1ae47b1fedee881a6
title: Chapter 12 of the Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report - data for Figure 12.4 (v20220623)

description: Data for Figure 12.4 from Chapter 12 of the Working Group I (WGI) Contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). Figure 12.4 shows median projected changes in selected climatic impact-driver indices based on CMIP6 models for ssp126 and ssp585 scenarios, and RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios (for extreme total water level), for mid-term and long-term (relative to recent past). --------------------------------------------------- How to cite this dataset --------------------------------------------------- When citing this dataset, please include both the data citation below (under 'Citable as') and the following citation for the report component from which the figure originates: Ranasinghe, R., A.C. Ruane, R. Vautard, N. Arnell, E. Coppola, F.A. Cruz, S. Dessai, A.S. Islam, M. Rahimi, D. Ruiz Carrascal, J. Sillmann, M.B. Sylla, C. Tebaldi, W. Wang, and R. Zaaboul, 2021: Climate Change Information for Regional Impact and for Risk Assessment. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson- Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1767–1926, doi:10.1017/9781009157896.014. --------------------------------------------------- Figure subpanels --------------------------------------------------- The figure has 18 panels (panel a to panel r), with data provided for all panels in the 12.4 figure directory; for each panel, the panel name is indicated in the file name with panel_X (with X being panel letter between a and r). --------------------------------------------------- List of data provided --------------------------------------------------- This dataset contains median projected changes in selected climatic impact-driver indices based on CMIP6 models for ssp126 and ssp585 scenarios for mid-term (2041-2060) and long-term (2081-2100), relative to recent past (1995-2014), and their associated masks of model agreement (with values -1 where at least 80% of the models agree in the sign of change, 0 elsewhere) for: - the mean number of days per year with maximum temperature exceeding 35°C - the mean number of days per year with NOAA Heat Index over 41°C - the number of negative precipitation anomaly events per decade using the 6-month Standardised Precipitation Index - the mean soil moisture - the mean surface wind speed It also contains the files of global projected median extreme total water level for CMIP5 RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios covering both mid-term (2041-2060) and long-term (2081-2100) horizons, and one for the recent past. The data is organized as points with their associated lon/lat coordinates. NOAA stands for the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. --------------------------------------------------- Data provided in relation to figure --------------------------------------------------- Please note the following filenames have been changed to ensure continuity with filenames on GitHub repository: panel p (ETWL): - panel_p_globalTWL_RCP45.nc -&gt; globalTWL_RCP45.nc - panel_p_q_r_globalTWL_baseline.nc -&gt; globalTWL_baseline.nc panel q (ETWL): - panel_q_globalTWL_RCP45.nc -&gt; globalTWL_RCP85.nc - panel_p_q_r_globalTWL_baseline.nc -&gt; globalTWL_baseline.nc panel r (ETWL): - panel_r_globalTWL_RCP45.nc -&gt; globalTWL_RCP85.nc - panel_p_q_r_globalTWL_baseline.nc -&gt; globalTWL_baseline.nc Data provided in relation to Figure 12.4: Panels a-c (tx35) where X is replaced with a,b or c: - 'tx35_panel_X_ssp126_2081-2100_minus_baseline.nc' : global spatial field of changes in mean number of days per year with maximum temperature exceeding 35°C for CMIP6 ssp126 ensemble median, long-term (colors) - 'mask_80perc-agreement_tx35_panel_X_ssp126_2081-2100_minus_baseline.nc' : spatial mask (for hatching) showing where at least 80% of the models agree in terms of sign of change (negative change, positive change or zero change); values are: -1 where true, 0 where false Panels d-f (HI41) where X is replaced with d,e or f: - 'HI41_panel_X_ssp126_2081-2100_minus_baseline.nc' : global spatial field of changes in mean number of days per year with NOAA Heat Index over 41°C for CMIP6 ssp126 ensemble median, long-term (colors) - 'mask_80perc-agreement_HI41_panel_X_ssp126_2081-2100_minus_baseline.nc' : spatial mask (for hatching) showing where at least 80% of the models agree in terms of sign of change (negative change, positive change or zero change); values are: -1 where true, 0 where false Panel g-i (DF6) where X is replaced with g, h or i: - 'DF6_panel_X_ssp126_farch_minus_baseline.nc' : global spatial field of changes in number of negative precipitation anomaly events per decade using the 6-month Standardised Precipitation Index for CMIP6 ssp126 ensemble median, long-term (colors) - 'mask_80perc-agreement_DF6_panel_X_ssp126_farch_minus_baseline.nc' : spatial mask (for hatching) showing where at least :80% of the models agree in terms of sign of change (negative change, positive change or zero change); values are: -1 where true, 0 where false Panel j-l (SM) where X is replaced with j, k or l: - 'SM_panel_X_ssp126_2081-2100_minus_baseline.nc' : global spatial field of changes in mean soil moisture for CMIP6 ssp126 ensemble median, long-term (colors) - 'mask_80perc-agreement_SM_panel_X_ssp126_2081-2100_minus_baseline.nc': spatial mask (for hatching) showing where at least 80% of the models agree in terms of sign of change (negative change, positive change or zero change); values are: -1 where true, 0 where false Panels m-o (sfcWind) where X is replaced with m, n or o: - 'sfcWind_panel_X_ssp126_2081-2100_minus_baseline.nc': global spatial field of changes in mean surface wind speed for CMIP6 ssp126 ensemble median, long-term (colors) - 'mask_80perc-agreement_sfcWind_panel_X_ssp126_2081-2100_minus_baseline.nc': spatial mask (for hatching) showing where at least 80% of the models agree in terms of sign of change (negative change, positive change or zero change); values are: -1 where true, 0 where false Panel p (ETWL): - globalTWL_RCP45.nc; global spatial field of median extreme sea level for CMIP5 RCP4.5, long-term (colors); long-term corresponds to decades=2100 in the file Panels q and r (ETWL): - globalTWL_RCP85.nc; global spatial field of median extreme sea level for RCP8.5, mid-term and long-term (colors) Panels p, q and r (ETWL): - globalTWL_baseline.nc; global spatial field of median extreme sea level for baseline For panels p, q and r: - the data shown on the plot is the difference between the future projections (globalTWL_RCP45.nc and globalTWL_RCP85.nc) and the baseline (globalTWL_baseline.nc) - the variable used is TWL; it is three dimensional: npoints, npercentiles (value given by variable percentile(npercentiles)), nsdec (value given by variable decades(nsdec)) - we use percentile=50 - mid-term corresponds to decades=2050 - long-term corresponds to decades=2100 - the baseline file has no time (decades) dimension CMIP5 is the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. CMIP6 is the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. SSP126 is the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway which represents the lower boundary of radiative forcing and development scenarios, consistent with RCP2.6. SSP585 is the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway which represents the upper boundary of radiative forcing and development scenarios, consistent with RCP8.5. RCP4.5 is the Representative Concentration Pathway for 4.5 Wm-2 global warming by 2100. RCP8.5 is the Representative Concentration Pathway for 8.5 Wm-2 global warming by 2100. --------------------------------------------------- Notes on reproducing the figure --------------------------------------------------- Scripts for plotting figure panels can be found in the dedicated Chapter 12 GitHub repository which is linked in the Related Documents section of this catalogue record. Code used for the figure is archived on Zenodo. --------------------------------------------------- Sources of additional information --------------------------------------------------- The following weblinks are provided in the Related Documents section of this catalogue record: - Link to the figure on the IPCC AR6 website - Link to the report component containing the figure (Chapter 12) - Link to the Supplementary Material for Chapter 12, which contains details on the input data used in Table 12.SM.1 - Link to the code for the figure, archived on Zenodo - Link to the Chapter 12 GitHub repository