DOI: 10.5061/dryad.pt517
title: Data from: Human judgment vs. quantitative models for the management of ecological resources

description: Despite major advances in quantitative approaches to natural resource
 management, there has been resistance to using these tools in the actual
 practice of managing ecological populations. Given a managed system and a
 set of assumptions, translated into a model, optimization methods can be
 used to solve for the most cost-effective management actions. However,
 when the underlying assumptions are not met, such methods can potentially
 lead to decisions that harm the environment and economy. Managers who
 develop decisions based on past experience and judgment, without the aid
 of mathematical models, can potentially learn about the system and develop
 flexible management strategies. However, these strategies are often based
 on subjective criteria and equally invalid and often unstated assumptions.
 Given the drawbacks of both methods, it is unclear whether simple
 quantitative models improve environmental decision making over expert
 opinion. In this study, we explore how well students, using their
 experience and judgment, manage simulated fishery populations in an online
 computer game and compare their management outcomes to the performance of
 model-based decisions. We consider harvest decisions generated using four
 different quantitative models: (1) the model used to produce the simulated
 population dynamics observed in the game, with the values of all
 parameters known (as a control), (2) the same model, but with unknown
 parameter values that must be estimated during the game from observed
 data, (3) models that are structurally different from those used to
 simulate the population dynamics, and (4) a model that ignores age
 structure. Humans on average performed much worse than the models in cases
 1–3, but in a small minority of scenarios, models produced worse outcomes
 than those resulting from students making decisions based on experience
 and judgment. When the models ignored age structure, they generated poorly
 performing management decisions, but still outperformed students using
 experience and judgment 66% of the time.
description: Unstructured Herring
 Fish Game Results Cornell Spring 2014 Intro to
 ConservationStudent harvest
 decisions entered during the herring fishing game (in the lecture period
 of Spring's Cornell 2014 Intro to conservation class) and the
 corresponding time series of fish biomasses, random variable time series,
 and in addition the analogous data from the practice game as well. It also
 includes their responses to survey questions.FishDatCornell_bigLittle_NTRES2010_IntroConservation_no0practice_correctTimestamp_Spring14.csvUnstructured Herring Fish Game Results Ithaca College Spring 2014 Principles of BiologySame as above file but the students were in a different course, Ithaca College's, Spring 2014, "Principles of Biology". Please see the README file for the data set "Unstructured Herring Fish Game Results Cornell Spring 2014 Intro to Conservation" for the meaning of the columns.FishDatIthacaCollege_IntroBio_Spring14_noDepletePractice.csvUnstructured Herring Fish Game Results Cornell Summer 2014 Graduate Student Science ColloquiumSame as above but for students attending the Summer 2014 Graduate Student Science Colloquium, hosted by the physics department at Cornell University. Please see the README file for the data set "Unstructured Herring Fish Game Results Cornell Spring 2014 Intro to Conservation" for the meaning of the columns.FishDat_PhysSem_Summer14.csvAge structured Salmon Fish Game Results Cornell Summer 2014 Graduate Student Science ColloquiumThe results of the students playing the age-structured salmon fishing game at the Cornell 2014 graduate student science colloquium. Please see the README file for the "Age structured Salmon Fish Game Results Cornell Spring 2014 Intro to Conservation" data set for the meaning of the columnsFishDat_bigLittle_PhysSem_Summer14.csvAge structured Salmon Fish Game Results Cornell Spring 2014 Intro to ConservationFishDatCornell_bigLittle_NTRES2010_IntroConservation_no0practice_correctTimestamp_Spring14.csvAge structured Salmon Fish Game Results Ithaca College Spring 2014 Principles of BiologyThe results from the age structured game in the Ithaca college class. Please see the README file for the "Age structured Salmon Fish Game Results Cornell Spring 2014 Intro to Conservation" data set for the meaning of the columnsFishDatIthacaCollege_bigLittle_IntroBio_Spring14.csv