DOI: 10.5063/aa/dpennington.185.4
title: IPCC Climate Change Data: HADCM3 A1F Model: 2050 Radiation

description: The recent experiments performed at the Hadley Centre have used the new Unified Model (Cullen, 1993). These experiments represent a large step forward in the way climate change is modelled by GCMs and raises new possibilities for scenario construction. This experiment has overcome some of the major difficulties that were associated with the previous generations of equilibrium (circa IPCC 1990) and cold-start transient (circa IPCC 1992) climate change experiments. HadCM2 has a spatial resolution of 2.5 degrees x 3.75 degrees (latitude by longitude) and the representation produces a grid box resolution of 96 x 73 grid cells. This produces a surface spatial resolution of about 417km x 278 km reducing to 295 x 278km at 45 degrees North and South (comparable to a spectral resolution of T42). The equilibrium climate sensitivity (DT2x) of HadCM2, that is the global-mean temperature response to a doubling of effective CO2 concentration, is approximately 2.5 degrees C, although, this quantity varies with the time-scale considered. This is somewhat lower than most other GCMs (IPCC, 1992). In order to undertake a 'warm-start' experiment it is necessary to perturb the model with a forcing from an early historical era, when the radiative forcing was relatively small compared to the present. The Hadley Centre started their experiments performed with HadCM2 with forcing from the middle industrial era, about 1860 Mitchell et al., 1995 and Johns et al., 1995. The greenhouse gas only integrations, HadCM2GG, used the combined forcing of all the greenhouse gases as an equivalent CO2 concentration. A further series of integrations, HadCM2GS, used the combined equivalent CO2 concentration plus the negative forcing from sulphate aerosols. The HadCM2GG integrations simulated the change in forcing of the climate system by greenhouse gases since the early industrial period (taken by HadCM2 to be 1860). The addition of the negative forcing effects of sulphate aerosols represents the direct radiative forcing due to anthropogenic sulphate aerosols by means of an increase in clear-sky surface albedo proportional to the local sulphate loading (refer to Mitchell et al., 1995 for details of this method). The indirect effects of aerosols were not simulated. The modelled control climate shows a negligible long term trend in surface air temperature over the first 400 years. The trend is about +0.04 degrees C per century, which is comparable to other such experiments. HadCM2CON represents an improvement over previous generations of GCMs that have been used at the Hadley Centre (Johns et al., 1995 and Airey et al., 1995). The experiments performed have simulated the observed climate system using estimated forcing perturbations since 1860. Johns et al., (1995) and Mitchell et al., (1995) have established that HadCM2's sensitivity is consistent with the real climate system. The agreement between the observed global-mean temperature record and that produced in these experiments is better for HadCM2GS than for HadCM2GG. This implies that HadCM2Gs has captured the observed signal of global-mean temperature changes better than HadCM2GG for the recent 100-year record. The climate sensitivity of HadCM2 is about 2.5 degrees CThe A1 Family storyline is a case of rapid and successful economic development, in which regional averages of income per capita converge - current distinctions between poor and rich countries eventually dissolve. In this scenario family, demographic and economic trends are closely linked, as affluence is correlated with long life and small families (low mortality and low fertility). Global population grows to some nine billion by 2050 and declines to about seven billion by 2100. Average age increases, with the needs of retired people met mainly through their accumulated savings in private pension systems. The global economy expands at an average annual rate of about three percent to 2100. This is approximately the same as average global growth since 1850, although the conditions that lead to a global economic in productivity and per capita incomes are unparalleled in history. Income per capita reaches about US$21,000 by 2050. While the high average level of income per capita contributes to a great improvement in the overall health and social conditions of the majority of people, this world is not without its problems. In particular, many communities could face some of the problems of social exclusion encountered by the wealthiest countries in the 20th century and in many places income growth could come with increased pressure on the global commons. Energy and mineral resources are abundant in this scenario family because of rapid technical progress, which both reduce the resources need to produce a given level of output and increases the economically recoverable reserves. Final energy intensity (energy use per unit of GDP) decreases at an average annual rate of 1.3 percent. With the rapid increase in income, dietary patterns shift initially significantly towards increased consumption of meat and dairy products, but may decrease subsequently with increasing emphasis on health of an aging society. High incomes also translate into high car ownership, sprawling suburbanization and dense transport networks, nationally and internationally. Land prices increase faster than income per capita. These factors along with high wages result in a considerable intensification of agriculture. Three scenario groups are considered in A1 scenario family reflecting the uncertainty in development of energy sources and conversion technologies in this rapidly changing world. Near-term investment decisions may introduce long-term irreversibilities into the market, with lock-in to one technological configuration or another. The A1B scenario group is based on a balanced mix of energy sources and has an intermediate level of CO2 emissions, but depending on the energy sources developed, emissions in the variants cover a very wide range. In the fossil-fuel intensive scenario group A1FI, emissions approach those of the A2 scenarios; conversely in scenario group A1T with low labor productivity or of rapid progress in "post-fossil" energy technologies, emissions are intermediate between those of B1 and B2. These scenario variants have been introduced into the A1 storyline because of its "high growth with high tech" nature, where differences in alternative technology developments translate into large differences in future GHG emission levels Ecological resilience is assumed to be high in this storyline. Environmental amenities are viewed in a utilitarian way, based on their influence on the formal economy. The concept of environmental quality might change in this storyline from "conservation" of nature to active"management" - and marketing - of natural and environmental services. Data are available for the following periods: 1961-1990, 2010-2039; 2040-2069; and 2090-2099 Mean monthly and change fields.