DOI: 10.5061/dryad.6767m
title: Data from: Fluctuating selection and its (elusive) evolutionary consequences in a wild rodent population

description: Temporal fluctuations in the strength and direction of selection are often
 proposed as a mechanism that slows down evolution, both over geological
 and contemporary time-scales. Both the prevalence of fluctuating selection
 and its relevance for evolutionary dynamics remain poorly understood
 however, especially on contemporary time scales: Unbiased empirical
 estimates of variation in selection are scarce, and the question of how
 much of the variation in selection translates into variation in genetic
 change has largely been ignored. Using long-term individual-based data for
 a wild rodent population, we quantify the magnitude of fluctuating
 selection on body size. Subsequently, we estimate the evolutionary
 dynamics of size, and test for a link between fluctuating selection and
 evolution. We show that, over the past 11 years, phenotypic selection on
 body size has fluctuated significantly. However, the strength and
 direction of genetic change have remained largely constant over the study
 period, i.e., the rate of genetic change was similar in years where
 selection favored heavier versus lighter individuals. This result suggests
 that over shorter timescales, fluctuating selection does not necessarily
 translate into fluctuating evolution. Importantly however,
 individual-based simulations show that the correlation between fluctuating
 selection and fluctuating evolution can be obscured by the effect of
 drift, and that substantially more data is required for a precise and
 accurate estimate of this correlation. We identify new challenges in
 measuring the coupling between selection and evolution, and provide
 methods and guidelines to overcome them.
description: Pedigree__ ped.txt Table containing the pedigree of the population _____ animal: focal individual unique identifier _____ dam: mother of the focal individual _____ sire: father of the focal individualped.txtBash run simulationsBash script to create folders and fill them with simulations with different heritability valuesCreateFoldersh2Bash run simulations 2Bash script to create folders and fill them with simulations with different length of monitoring valuesMakeFoldersTime.bashPhenotypic data__ YearPheno.txt _____ ID: focal individual unique identifier _____ animal: duplicate of ID to fit relatedness matrices in animal model _____ Mother: mother of the focal individual _____ Year: year of measurement _____ Sex: Female or male _____ Age: Juvenile or adult _____ BMI: Body mass index. Check the publication for details _____ RJst: Standardized relative Julian day _____ RJ2st: Squared Standardized relative Julian day _____ Phi and PhiZ: survival to the next year (duplicated for historical reasons) _____ RhoZ: reproduction on the next year _____ FitnessZ: RhoZ + 2Phi. Check the publication for details _____ GGImm: proportion of assumed immigrant ancestry used to fit genetic groups. Check the publication for details _____ BMIst: BMI standardized within years _____ BMI1 and BMI2: BMI in years of positive or negative selection. Check the publication for detailsYearPheno.txtRDataRData to re-create figuresToCreateFiguresAndMainNumbersCode used to create figures and calculate some numbers presented in the manuscriptInputVolatorInput file to set parameter values for VolatorQuantGenAnalysisQuantitative genetic analysis of BMI evolutionSelectionAnalysisSourceCodeContains most of the source code for Volator. Visit https://github.com/timotheenivalis/Volator to find the components and the executable, which could not be released here because of their licenses.VolatorGitHub repository with the individual-based simulation software