The AFOLU sector’s role in national decarbonization: a comparative analysis of low-GHG development pathways in Brazil, India and Indonesia
Creators: name: Svensson, Johannes
name: Avashia, Vidhee
name: Boer, Rizaldi
name: Chaturvedi, Rajiv Kumar
name: Cotta, Michele
name: Dubeux, Carolina
name: Immanuel, Gito Sugih
name: La Rovere, Emilio Lebre
name: Patange, Omkar
name: Rossita, Annuri
name: Vishwanathan, Saritha Sudharmma
Publisher: name: Taylor & Francis
Year: 2024
Subjects: subject: Microbiology
subject: FOS: Biological sciences
subject: Biotechnology
subject: Environmental Sciences not elsewhere classified
subject: Ecology
subject: Biological Sciences not elsewhere classified
subject: Science Policy
subject: Computational Biology

description: This paper analyses the role that AFOLU (agriculture, forest and other land use) plays in national deep decarbonization scenarios in Brazil, India and Indonesia between 2020 and 2050. It finds that the LULUCF (land use, land use change and forestry) subsector is important for medium-term mitigation (2020–2030) while continuing to contribute to mitigation over the long-term (2030–2050) in the three countries. Mitigation actions in LULUCF include drastically reducing deforestation (Brazil, Indonesia) and peat degradation (Indonesia), re-/afforestation (all), increased sequestration in standing forests (Brazil, Indonesia) and increasing soil carbon in agricultural lands (India). AFOLU further contributes to mitigation in Brazil and Indonesia by producing biomass feedstock for bioenergy. No country significantly reduces N<sub>2</sub>O and CH<sub>4</sub> emissions from either agriculture or via demand-side actions on diets, due to trade-offs with food security, rural livelihoods and economic growth (although all countries reduce the GHG intensity of agricultural products). Furthermore, the paper analyses national policies to manoeuvre co-benefits and trade-offs between mitigation and other sustainable development goals (SDGs), including no poverty (1); zero hunger (2); decent work and economic growth (8); climate action, including both adaptation and mitigation (13); and life on land (15). Common policy areas were identified, including incentives to land managers for conservation or more environmental agricultural practices; changing regulations of land use to protect ecosystems and/or encourage shifts in agricultural practices; and strengthening enforcement capacity of land protection. - AFOLU plays an important role in reaching multiple sustainable development goals (SDGs), and mitigation through AFOLU is only feasible when trade-offs with SDGs are managed. - Reducing net emissions in LULUCF is a major driver of national decarbonization in all three countries between 2020 and 2050. - Mitigation in agriculture and via dietary changes is challenging in Brazil, India and Indonesia due to difficulties in managing trade-offs with food security and rural livelihoods. - Strengthened agricultural resilience to climate change is required to achieve the yield increases necessary to meet growing demand for food, feed, fibre and carbon sequestration in the Brazilian, Indian and Indonesian pathways. - Achieving mitigation and sustainable productivity increases in the pathways while maximizing co-benefits with other SDGs requires comprehensive and context-specific policy packages. - AFOLU plays an important role in reaching multiple sustainable development goals (SDGs), and mitigation through AFOLU is only feasible when trade-offs with SDGs are managed.  - Reducing net emissions in LULUCF is a major driver of national decarbonization in all three countries between 2020 and 2050.  - Mitigation in agriculture and via dietary changes is challenging in Brazil, India and Indonesia due to difficulties in managing trade-offs with food security and rural livelihoods.  - Strengthened agricultural resilience to climate change is required to achieve the yield increases necessary to meet growing demand for food, feed, fibre and carbon sequestration in the Brazilian, Indian and Indonesian pathways.  - Achieving mitigation and sustainable productivity increases in the pathways while maximizing co-benefits with other SDGs requires comprehensive and context-specific policy packages.