CMB-S4: Forecasting Constraints on Primordial Gravitational Waves
Creators: name: S4 Collaboration
name: Abazajian, Kevork
name: Addison, Graeme E.
name: Adshead, Peter
name: Ahmed, Zeeshan
name: Akerib, Daniel
name: Ali, Aamir
name: Allen, Steven W.
name: Alonso, David
name: Alvarez, Marcelo
name: Amin, Mustafa A.
name: Anderson, Adam
name: Arnold, Kam S.
name: Ashton, Peter
name: Baccigalupi, Carlo
name: Bard, Debbie
name: Barkats, Denis
name: Barron, Darcy
name: Barry, Peter S.
name: Bartlett, James G.
name: Thakur, Ritoban Basu
name: Battaglia, Nicholas
name: Bean, Rachel
name: Bebek, Chris
name: Bender, Amy N.
name: Benson, Bradford A.
name: Bianchini, Federico
name: Bischoff, Colin A.
name: Bleem, Lindsey
name: Bock, James J.
name: Bocquet, Sebastian
name: Boddy, Kimberly K.
name: Bond, J. Richard
name: Borrill, Julian
name: Bouchet, François R.
name: Brinckmann, Thejs
name: Brown, Michael L.
name: Bryan, Sean
name: Buza, Victor
name: Byrum, Karen
name: Caimapo, Carlos Hervias
name: Calabrese, Erminia
name: Calafut, Victoria
name: Caldwell, Robert
name: Carlstrom, John E.
name: Carron, Julien
name: Cecil, Thomas
name: Challinor, Anthony
name: Chang, Clarence L.
name: Chinone, Yuji
name: Cho, Hsiao-Mei Sherry
name: Cooray, Asantha
name: Coulton, Will
name: Crawford, Thomas M.
name: Crites, Abigail
name: Cukierman, Ari
name: Cyr-Racine, Francis-Yan
name: de Haan, Tijmen
name: Delabrouille, Jacques
name: Devlin, Mark
name: Di Valentino, Eleonora
name: Dierickx, Marion
name: Dobbs, Matt
name: Duff, Shannon
name: Dunkley, Jo
name: Dvorkin, Cora
name: Eimer, Joseph
name: Elleflot, Tucker
name: Errard, Josquin
name: Essinger-Hileman, Thomas
name: Fabbian, Giulio
name: Feng, Chang
name: Ferraro, Simone
name: Filippini, Jeffrey P.
name: Flauger, Raphael
name: Flaugher, Brenna
name: Fraisse, Aurelien A.
name: Frolov, Andrei
name: Galitzki, Nicholas
name: Gallardo, Patricio A.
name: Galli, Silvia
name: Ganga, Ken
name: Gerbino, Martina
name: Gluscevic, Vera
name: Goeckner-Wald, Neil
name: Green, Daniel
name: Grin, Daniel
name: Grohs, Evan
name: Gualtieri, Riccardo
name: Gudmundsson, Jon E.
name: Gullett, Ian
name: Gupta, Nikhel
name: Habib, Salman
name: Halpern, Mark
name: Halverson, Nils W.
name: Hanany, Shaul
name: Harrington, Kathleen
name: Hasegawa, Masaya
name: Hasselfield, Matthew
name: Hazumi, Masashi
name: Heitmann, Katrin
name: Henderson, Shawn
name: Hensley, Brandon
name: Hill, Charles
name: Hill, J. Colin
name: Hlozek, Renée
name: Ho, Shuay-Pwu Patty
name: Hoang, Thuong
name: Holder, Gil
name: Holzapfel, William
name: Hood, John
name: Hubmayr, Johannes
name: Huffenberger, Kevin M.
name: Hui, Howard
name: Irwin, Kent
name: Jeong, Oliver
name: Johnson, Bradley R.
name: Jones, William C.
name: Kang, Jae Hwan
name: Karkare, Kirit S.
name: Katayama, Nobuhiko
name: Keskitalo, Reijo
name: Kisner, Theodore
name: Knox, Lloyd
name: Koopman, Brian J.
name: Kosowsky, Arthur
name: Kovac, John
name: Kovetz, Ely D.
name: Kuhlmann, Steve
name: Kuo, Chao-lin
name: Kusaka, Akito
name: Lähteenmäki, Anne
name: Lawrence, Charles R.
name: Lee, Adrian T.
name: Lewis, Antony
name: Li, Dale
name: Linder, Eric
name: Loverde, Marilena
name: Lowitz, Amy
name: Lubin, Phil
name: Madhavacheril, Mathew S.
name: Mantz, Adam
name: Marques, Gabriela
name: Matsuda, Frederick
name: Mauskopf, Philip
name: McCarrick, Heather
name: McMahon, Jeffrey
name: Meerburg, P. Daniel
name: Melin, Jean-Baptiste
name: Menanteau, Felipe
name: Meyers, Joel
name: Millea, Marius
name: Mohr, Joseph
name: Moncelsi, Lorenzo
name: Monzani, Maria
name: Mroczkowski, Tony
name: Mukherjee, Suvodip
name: Nagy, Johanna
name: Namikawa, Toshiya
name: Nati, Federico
name: Natoli, Tyler
name: Newburgh, Laura
name: Niemack, Michael D.
name: Nishino, Haruki
name: Nord, Brian
name: Novosad, Valentine
name: O'Brient, Roger
name: Padin, Stephen
name: Palladino, Steven
name: Partridge, Bruce
name: Petravick, Don
name: Pierpaoli, Elena
name: Pogosian, Levon
name: Prabhu, Karthik
name: Pryke, Clement
name: Puglisi, Giuseppe
name: Racine, Benjamin
name: Rahlin, Alexandra
name: Rao, Mayuri Sathyanarayana
name: Raveri, Marco
name: Reichardt, Christian L.
name: Remazeilles, Mathieu
name: Rocha, Graca
name: Roe, Natalie A.
name: Roy, Anirban
name: Ruhl, John E.
name: Salatino, Maria
name: Saliwanchik, Benjamin
name: Schaan, Emmanuel
name: Schillaci, Alessandro
name: Schmitt, Benjamin
name: Schmittfull, Marcel M.
name: Scott, Douglas
name: Sehgal, Neelima
name: Shandera, Sarah
name: Sherwin, Blake D.
name: Shirokoff, Erik
name: Simon, Sara M.
name: Slosar, Anze
name: Spergel, David
name: Germaine, Tyler St.
name: Staggs, Suzanne T.
name: Stark, Antony
name: Starkman, Glenn D.
name: Stompor, Radek
name: Stoughton, Chris
name: Suzuki, Aritoki
name: Tajima, Osamu
name: Teply, Grant P.
name: Thompson, Keith
name: Thorne, Ben
name: Timbie, Peter
name: Tomasi, Maurizio
name: Tristram, Matthieu
name: Tucker, Gregory
name: Umiltà, Caterina
name: van Engelen, Alexander
name: Vavagiakis, Eve M.
name: Vieira, Joaquin D.
name: Vieregg, Abigail G.
name: Wagoner, Kasey
name: Wallisch, Benjamin
name: Wang, Gensheng
name: Watson, Scott
name: Westbrook, Ben
name: Whitehorn, Nathan
name: Wollack, Edward J.
name: Wu, W. L. Kimmy
name: Xu, Zhilei
name: Yang, H. Y. Eric
name: Yasini, Siavash
name: Yefremenko, Volodymyr G.
name: Yoon, Ki Won
name: Young, Edward
name: Yu, Cyndia
name: Zonca, Andrea
Publisher: name: arXiv
Year: 2020
Subjects: subject: Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics (astro-ph.CO)
subject: FOS: Physical sciences
subject: FOS: Physical sciences

description: CMB-S4---the next-generation ground-based cosmic microwave background (CMB) experiment---is set to significantly advance the sensitivity of CMB measurements and enhance our understanding of the origin and evolution of the Universe, from the highest energies at the dawn of time through the growth of structure to the present day. Among the science cases pursued with CMB-S4, the quest for detecting primordial gravitational waves is a central driver of the experimental design. This work details the development of a forecasting framework that includes a power-spectrum-based semi-analytic projection tool, targeted explicitly towards optimizing constraints on the tensor-to-scalar ratio, $r$, in the presence of Galactic foregrounds and gravitational lensing of the CMB. This framework is unique in its direct use of information from the achieved performance of current Stage 2--3 CMB experiments to robustly forecast the science reach of upcoming CMB-polarization endeavors. The methodology allows for rapid iteration over experimental configurations and offers a flexible way to optimize the design of future experiments given a desired scientific goal. To form a closed-loop process, we couple this semi-analytic tool with map-based validation studies, which allow for the injection of additional complexity and verification of our forecasts with several independent analysis methods. We document multiple rounds of forecasts for CMB-S4 using this process and the resulting establishment of the current reference design of the primordial gravitational-wave component of the Stage-4 experiment, optimized to achieve our science goals of detecting primordial gravitational waves for $r &gt; 0.003$ at greater than $5σ$, or, in the absence of a detection, of reaching an upper limit of $r &lt; 0.001$ at $95\%$ CL.
description: 24 pages, 8 figures, 9 tables, submitted to ApJ. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1907.04473