Supplementary figures of the paper entitled "Spatial resolution determines projected plant responses to climate change on topographically complex islands"
Creators: name: Collart, Flavien
name: Patiño, Jairo
name: Vanderpoorten, Alain
name: Naranjo-Cigala, Agustín
name: Martin-Esquivel, José Luis
name: Mirolo, Sebastien
name: Karger, Dirk
Publisher: name: figshare
Year: 2023
Subjects: Biogeography and phylogeography
Terrestrial ecology

description: Supplementary figures of the paper entitled "<strong>Spatial resolution determines projected plant responses to climate change on topographically complex islands</strong>" accepted in Diversity and Distributions (doi: 10.1111/ddi.13757). <strong>Figure S1.</strong> Occurrences of the 14 bryophyte species analyzed in the present study across the Canary Islands. <strong>Figure S2.</strong> Sensitivity analysis of the parameter used in the precipitation downscaling algorithm that scales the terrain effect towards the boundary layer height (PBL). Blue lines = winter, green lines = spring, red lines = summer, orange lines = autumn. All performance variables (<em>r,</em> <em>rmse,</em> <em>mae</em>) are shown as percentage towards the maximum. <strong>Figure S3.</strong> Dendrogram of global circulation models for the 2071-2100 period based on Euclidean distance and the ward method. <strong>Figure S4.</strong> Projected warming (°C increase in mean annual temperature and mm change in annual precipitation) across the Canary Islands based on the ~1-km resolution CHELSA and 100-m resolution CanaryClim datasets. Some of the most buffered sites are predicted by CanaryClim to be near mid-elevation ridges, such as those located across the Anaga Peninsula (Tenerife, Canary Islands), while CHELSA predicted a more uniform climate change both in temperature and precipitation. <strong>Figure S5.</strong> Species response curves generated from models realized with CanaryClim (100m resolution; A1-14) and CHELSA (30-arc-second resolution = ~1km; B1-14) datasets. bio_01: Annual mean temperature; bio_07: Annual range of temperature; bio_12: Annual precipitation; bio_15: Precipitation seasonality; bio_18: mean monthly precipitation amount of the warmest quarte; TWI: topographic wetness index. <strong>Figure S6.</strong> Histograms of suitability values at present time and in 2071-2100 for 14 Macaronesian endemic species in the Canary Islands obtained by projecting species distribution models calibrated with climatic predictors at 100m resolution (CanaryClim) and 1km (CHELSA), respectively, onto future climatic layers. A-N: Histograms for each of the 14 species. <strong>Figure S7</strong>. Examples of potential microrefugia in the Anaga Peninsula (Tenerife, Canary Islands). Lost, kept and gained environmentally likely suitable areas for three Macaronesian bryophyte species in the Canary Islands under the GFDL 5-8.5 scenario are depicted. Stable habitat in CanaryClim (100 m) and CHELSA (~1 km) is mostly predicted at mid-elevation ridges, at least for <em>Leucodon</em> <em>canariensis</em> and <em>Rhynchostegiella</em> <em>pseudolitorea</em>. New environmentally likely suitable ranges are mostly identified at higher elevations, but mainly by CanaryClim models. This figure complements Figure 6. <strong>Figure S8.</strong> Predicted environmentally likely suitable distribution range in 2100 under two global circulation models (GFDL and UKESM) and three shared socio-economic pathways (SSP 1-2.6; 3-7.0; and 5-8.5) for each of the 14 Macaronesian endemic bryophyte species in the Canary Islands, as predicted by species distributions models employing 100-m CanaryClim and ~1-km CHELSA resolution climatic datasets.