title: ÐÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ðµ Ð´Ð»Ð¸ÑÐµÐ»ÑÐ½Ð¾ÑÑÐ¸ Ð¸Ð½Ð½Ð¾Ð²Ð°ÑÐ¸Ð¾Ð½Ð½ÑÑ Ð¿ÑÐ¾ÐµÐºÑÐ¾Ð² Ñ Ð³Ð¸Ð±ÐºÐ¸Ð¼ ÑÐ¿ÑÐ°Ð²Ð»ÐµÐ½Ð¸ÐµÐ¼
title: Ð²ÑÐ¿ÑÑÐºÐ½Ð°Ñ ÐºÐ²Ð°Ð»Ð¸ÑÐ¸ÐºÐ°ÑÐ¸Ð¾Ð½Ð½Ð°Ñ ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÐ° Ð¼Ð°Ð³Ð¸ÑÑÑÐ°
titleType: Subtitle
title: Forecasting the duration of the agile innovative projects
Creators: name: ÐÐµÐ½Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð², ÐÐ¸ÐºÐ¸ÑÐ°
Publisher: name: Ð¡Ð°Ð½ÐºÑ-ÐÐµÑÐµÑÐ±ÑÑÐ³ÑÐºÐ¸Ð¹ Ð¿Ð¾Ð»Ð¸ÑÐµÑÐ½Ð¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¸Ð¹ ÑÐ½Ð¸Ð²ÐµÑÑÐ¸ÑÐµÑ ÐÐµÑÑÐ° ÐÐµÐ»Ð¸ÐºÐ¾Ð³Ð¾
Year: 2022
Subjects: ÑÐ¿ÑÐ°Ð²Ð»ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ðµ Ð¿ÑÐ¾ÐµÐºÑÐ°Ð¼Ð¸
Ð³Ð¸Ð±ÐºÐ°Ñ Ð¼ÐµÑÐ¾Ð´Ð¾Ð»Ð¾Ð³Ð¸Ñ
Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ðµ
Ð¼ÐµÑÐ¾Ð´ ÐÐ¾Ð½ÑÐµ-ÐÐ°ÑÐ»Ð¾
project management
agile
forecasting
Monte Carlo simulation

description: Ð¦ÐµÐ»ÑÑ Ð´Ð°Ð½Ð½Ð¾Ð¹ ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÑ ÑÐ²Ð»ÑÐµÑÑÑ ÑÐ¾Ð·Ð´Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ðµ ÑÐ¿Ð¾ÑÐ¾Ð±Ð° Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ Ð´Ð»Ð¸ÑÐµÐ»ÑÐ½Ð¾ÑÑÐ¸ Ð¸Ð½Ð½Ð¾Ð²Ð°ÑÐ¸Ð¾Ð½Ð½Ð¾Ð³Ð¾ Ð¿ÑÐ¾ÐµÐºÑÐ° Ñ Ð³Ð¸Ð±ÐºÐ¸Ð¼ ÑÐ¿ÑÐ°Ð²Ð»ÐµÐ½Ð¸ÐµÐ¼ Ð½Ð° Ð¾ÑÐ½Ð¾Ð²Ðµ Ð¼ÐµÑÐ¾Ð´Ð° ÐÐ¾Ð½ÑÐµ-ÐÐ°ÑÐ»Ð¾ Ð¸ ÑÐºÑÐ¿ÐµÑÑÐ½Ð¾Ð¹ Ð¾ÑÐµÐ½ÐºÐ¸. ÐÐ±ÑÐµÐºÑÐ¾Ð¼ Ð¸ÑÑÐ»ÐµÐ´Ð¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ Ð²ÑÑÑÑÐ¿Ð°ÐµÑ Ð¿ÑÐ¾ÐµÐºÑ Ñ Ð³Ð¸Ð±ÐºÐ¸Ð¼ ÑÐ¿ÑÐ°Ð²Ð»ÐµÐ½Ð¸ÐµÐ¼, Ð¿ÑÐµÐ´Ð¼ÐµÑÐ¾Ð¼ - ÐºÐ°Ð»ÐµÐ½Ð´Ð°ÑÐ½Ð¾Ðµ Ð¿Ð»Ð°Ð½Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ðµ ÑÐ°ÐºÐ¾Ð³Ð¾ Ð¿ÑÐ¾ÐµÐºÑÐ°. Ð Ð°Ð±Ð¾ÑÐ° Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð²ÐµÐ´ÐµÐ½Ð° Ð½Ð° Ð±Ð°Ð·Ðµ Ð¿ÑÐ¸Ð½ÑÐ¸Ð¿Ð¾Ð² Ð³Ð¸Ð±ÐºÐ¾Ð¹ Ð¼ÐµÑÐ¾Ð´Ð¾Ð»Ð¾Ð³Ð¸Ð¸, Ð² ÑÐ°ÑÑÐ½Ð¾ÑÑÐ¸ Ð½Ð° Ð±Ð°Ð·Ðµ ÑÑÐµÐ¹Ð¼Ð²Ð¾ÑÐºÐ° Scrum. ÐÐ»Ñ Ð²ÑÑÐ¸ÑÐ»ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ Ð´Ð»Ð¸ÑÐµÐ»ÑÐ½Ð¾ÑÑÐ¸ Ð¿ÑÐ¾ÐµÐºÑÐ° Ð¸ÑÐ¿Ð¾Ð»ÑÐ·Ð¾Ð²Ð°Ð»ÑÑ Ð¼ÐµÑÐ¾Ð´ ÐÐ¾Ð½ÑÐµ-ÐÐ°ÑÐ»Ð¾ (Ð¼Ð½Ð¾Ð³Ð¾ÐºÑÐ°ÑÐ½Ð°Ñ Ð³ÐµÐ½ÐµÑÐ°ÑÐ¸Ð¸ ÑÐ»ÑÑÐ°Ð¹Ð½ÑÑ ÑÐ¸ÑÐµÐ»), ÐºÐ¾Ð¼Ð±Ð¸Ð½Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð½ÑÐ¹ Ñ ÑÐ¼Ð¿Ð¸ÑÐ¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¾Ð¹ Ð¾ÑÐµÐ½ÐºÐ¾Ð¹ ÑÑÑÐ´Ð¾Ð·Ð°ÑÑÐ°Ñ Ð² ÐµÐ´Ð¸Ð½Ð¸ÑÐ°Ñ Story Points. Ð­ÑÐ¾ Ð¿Ð¾Ð·Ð²Ð¾Ð»ÑÐµÑ ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð¼ÐµÑÑÐ¸ÑÑ ÑÐ¾ÑÐ¼Ð°Ð»Ð¸Ð·Ð¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð½Ð¾ÑÑÑ Ð¼Ð°ÑÐµÐ¼Ð°ÑÐ¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¸Ñ Ð¼ÐµÑÐ¾Ð´Ð¾Ð² Ñ ÑÐ¾ÑÐ½Ð¾ÑÑÑÑ Ð¸ÑÐ¿Ð¾Ð»ÑÐ·ÑÐµÐ¼ÑÑ Ð½Ð° Ð¿ÑÐ°ÐºÑÐ¸ÐºÐµ ÑÐ¼Ð¿Ð¸ÑÐ¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¸Ñ Ð¸Ð½ÑÑÑÑÐ¼ÐµÐ½ÑÐ¾Ð², Ð° ÑÐ°ÐºÐ¶Ðµ ÑÐ´ÐµÐ»Ð°ÑÑ Ð¾ÑÐµÐ½ÐºÐ¸ Ð²ÐµÑÐ¾ÑÑÐ½Ð¾ÑÑÐ½ÑÐ¼Ð¸. Ð ÑÐµÐ·ÑÐ»ÑÑÐ°ÑÐµ Ð²ÑÐ¿Ð¾Ð»Ð½ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÑ ÑÐ°Ð·ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÐ°Ð½ ÑÐ¿Ð¾ÑÐ¾Ð± Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ Ð´Ð»Ð¸ÑÐµÐ»ÑÐ½Ð¾ÑÑÐ¸ Ð¿ÑÐ¾ÐµÐºÑÐ¾Ð², Ð¿Ð¾Ð·Ð²Ð¾Ð»ÑÑÑÐ¸Ð¹ ÑÐ¾ÑÐµÑÐ½Ð¾ Ð¸ Ð¸Ð½ÑÐµÑÐ²Ð°Ð»ÑÐ½Ð¾ Ð¾ÑÐµÐ½Ð¸ÑÑ Ð²ÑÐµÐ¼ÐµÐ½Ð½ÑÐµ Ð·Ð°ÑÑÐ°ÑÑ Ð½Ð° Ð²ÑÐ¿Ð¾Ð»Ð½ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ðµ Ð½Ð°Ð±Ð¾ÑÐ° Ð·Ð°Ð´Ð°Ñ. Ð ÐµÐ·ÑÐ»ÑÑÐ°Ñ Ð¿ÑÐ¸Ð¼ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ð¼ Ð² Ð¿ÑÐ¾ÐµÐºÑÐ°Ñ Ñ Ð³Ð¸Ð±ÐºÐ¾Ð¹ Ð¼ÐµÑÐ¾Ð´Ð¾Ð»Ð¾Ð³Ð¸ÐµÐ¹, ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÐ°ÑÑÐ¸Ñ Ð² ÑÐ°Ð¼ÐºÐ°Ñ ÑÑÐµÐ¹Ð¼Ð²Ð¾ÑÐºÐ° Scrum Ñ ÑÑÐ°ÑÑÐ¸ÐµÐ¼ ÑÐ¸ÑÑÐµÐ¼ ÑÐ¿ÑÐ°Ð²Ð»ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ Ð¿ÑÐ¾ÐµÐºÑÐ°Ð¼Ð¸: Jira, AirTable, YouTrack, GitLab. Ð¡Ð¿Ð¾ÑÐ¾Ð± Ð±ÑÐ» Ð°Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð±Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½ Ð½Ð° Ð¾ÑÐ½Ð¾Ð²Ðµ Ð´Ð°Ð½Ð½ÑÑ ÑÐµÐ°Ð»ÑÐ½ÑÑ Ð¿ÑÐ¾ÐµÐºÑÐ¾Ð² â Ð´Ð»Ñ Ð½Ð°Ð±Ð¾ÑÐ° Ð·Ð°Ð´Ð°Ñ Ð² ÑÐ°Ð¼ÐºÐ°Ñ ÑÑÐ¸Ñ Ð¿ÑÐ¾ÐµÐºÑÐ¾Ð² Ð±ÑÐ»Ð¸ Ð¾Ð¿ÑÐµÐ´ÐµÐ»ÐµÐ½Ñ ÑÐ¾ÑÐµÑÐ½ÑÐµ Ð¸ Ð¸Ð½ÑÐµÑÐ²Ð°Ð»ÑÐ½ÑÐµ Ð¾ÑÐµÐ½ÐºÐ¸ Ð¸Ñ Ð´Ð»Ð¸ÑÐµÐ»ÑÐ½Ð¾ÑÑÐ¸. Ð¡ÑÐµÐ´Ð½ÑÑ Ð¾ÑÐ½Ð¾ÑÐ¸ÑÐµÐ»ÑÐ½Ð°Ñ Ð¾ÑÐ¸Ð±ÐºÐ° ÑÐ¼ÐµÐ½ÑÑÐ¸Ð»Ð°ÑÑ Ð² ÑÑÐ°Ð²Ð½ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ð¸ Ñ Ð°Ð½Ð°Ð»Ð¾Ð³Ð¸ÑÐ½ÑÐ¼ ÑÐ¿Ð¾ÑÐ¾Ð±Ð¾Ð¼ Ð¾ÑÐµÐ½ÐºÐ¸, Ð¾ÑÐ½Ð¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð½ÑÐ¼ Ð½Ð° Ð¼ÐµÑÐ¾Ð´Ðµ ÐÐ¾Ð½ÑÐµ-ÐÐ°ÑÐ»Ð¾ Ð¸ Ð²ÑÐµÐ¼ÐµÐ½Ð¸ ÑÐ°ÐºÑÐ°, Ð² ÑÐ¾ Ð²ÑÐµÐ¼Ñ ÐºÐ°Ðº Ð¿ÑÐ¾ÑÐµÐ½Ñ ÑÐ¾ÑÐ½Ð¾ÑÑÐ¸ Ð¸Ð½ÑÐµÑÐ²Ð°Ð»ÑÐ½ÑÑ Ð¾ÑÐµÐ½Ð¾Ðº Ð·Ð½Ð°ÑÐ¸Ð¼Ð¾ Ð½Ðµ Ð¸Ð·Ð¼ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ð»ÑÑ.
description: The purpose of this work is creating the method that forecasts the duration ofÂ  the agile innovative projects based on the Monte Carlo simulation and expert estimation. The object of the study is an agile project, the subject is the scheduling of an agile project. The research is based on the agile principles, in particular, on the basis of the Scrum framework. Monte Carlo simulation (i.e. multiple generation of random numbers) is combined with an empirical estimate of effort in Story Point units and used to calculate the duration of the project. Thus, the formalization of mathematical methodÂ  blends with the accuracy of empirical tools used in practice, and allows to make a probabilistic prediction. The scientific result of this work is the project duration forecasting method, which allows estimating effort of a set of tasks as single exact value and range of possible values. The result is applicable in agile projects with Scrum framework and project management tools like Jira, AirTable, YouTrack, GitLab. The method was tested within experiment with data from real projects. For each project, the sample set of tasks were estimated as the exact value and range of possible durations. The mean magnitude of relative error has decreased in comparison with a similar method of forecasting which is based on the Monte Carlo simulation and takt time, while the accuracy of interval forecast has not changed significantly.