title: ÐÐ¾Ð´Ð¸ÑÐ¸ÐºÐ°ÑÐ¸Ñ Ð¼ÐµÑÐ¾Ð´Ð° ÐÐ°Ð¹ÐµÑÐ° Ð´Ð»Ñ Ð·Ð°Ð´Ð°Ñ Ð¿ÑÐ¸Ð½ÑÑÐ¸Ñ ÑÐµÑÐµÐ½Ð¸Ð¹
title: Ð²ÑÐ¿ÑÑÐºÐ½Ð°Ñ ÐºÐ²Ð°Ð»Ð¸ÑÐ¸ÐºÐ°ÑÐ¸Ð¾Ð½Ð½Ð°Ñ ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÐ° Ð±Ð°ÐºÐ°Ð»Ð°Ð²ÑÐ°
titleType: Subtitle
title: Modification of the Bayes method for decision making problems
Creators: name: Ð¡ÐµÑÐ³ÐµÐµÐ², ÐÐ¼Ð¸ÑÑÐ¸Ð¹
Publisher: name: Ð¡Ð°Ð½ÐºÑ-ÐÐµÑÐµÑÐ±ÑÑÐ³ÑÐºÐ¸Ð¹ Ð¿Ð¾Ð»Ð¸ÑÐµÑÐ½Ð¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¸Ð¹ ÑÐ½Ð¸Ð²ÐµÑÑÐ¸ÑÐµÑ ÐÐµÑÑÐ° ÐÐµÐ»Ð¸ÐºÐ¾Ð³Ð¾
Year: 2024
Subjects: ÑÐ¸ÑÑÐµÐ¼Ñ Ð¿Ð¾Ð´Ð´ÐµÑÐ¶ÐºÐ¸ Ð¿ÑÐ¸Ð½ÑÑÐ¸Ñ ÑÐµÑÐµÐ½Ð¸Ð¹
ÑÐµÐ¾ÑÐ¸Ñ Ð¿ÑÐ¸Ð½ÑÑÐ¸Ñ ÑÐµÑÐµÐ½Ð¸Ð¹
ÐºÐ¾Ð»Ð»ÐµÐºÑÐ¸Ð²Ð½Ð¾Ðµ Ð¿ÑÐ¸Ð½ÑÑÐ¸Ðµ ÑÐµÑÐµÐ½Ð¸Ð¹
Ð¿Ð¾ÑÐ»ÐµÐ´Ð¾Ð²Ð°ÑÐµÐ»ÑÐ½Ð¾Ðµ Ð¿ÑÐ¸Ð½ÑÑÐ¸Ðµ ÑÐµÑÐµÐ½Ð¸Ð¹
Ð¼ÐµÑÐ¾Ð´ ÐÐ°Ð¹ÐµÑÐ°
decision support systems
decision theory
collective decision making
sequential decision making
Bayes method

description: ÐÐ°Ð½Ð½Ð°Ñ ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÐ° Ð¿Ð¾ÑÐ²ÑÑÐµÐ½Ð° Ð¼Ð¾Ð´Ð¸ÑÐ¸ÐºÐ°ÑÐ¸ÑÐ¼ ÐºÐ»Ð°ÑÑÐ¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¾Ð¹ ÑÐ¾ÑÐ¼ÑÐ»Ñ ÐÐ°Ð¹ÐµÑÐ°. Ð Ð°Ð±Ð¾ÑÐ° Ð½Ð°Ð¿ÑÐ°Ð²Ð»ÐµÐ½Ð° Ð½Ð° Ð¿Ð¾Ð»ÑÑÐµÐ½Ð¸Ðµ Ð´Ð¾Ð¿Ð¾Ð»Ð½Ð¸ÑÐµÐ»ÑÐ½ÑÑ ÑÐ°ÐºÑÐ¾ÑÐ¾Ð², ÐºÐ¾ÑÐ¾ÑÑÐµ Ð¿Ð¾Ð¼Ð¾Ð³Ð°ÑÑ Ð¿ÑÐ¸Ð½ÑÑÑ Ð±Ð¾Ð»ÐµÐµ ÑÐ¾ÑÐ½Ð¾Ðµ Ð¸ Ð¾Ð±Ð¾ÑÐ½Ð¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð½Ð¾Ðµ ÑÐµÑÐµÐ½Ð¸Ðµ. ÐÐ°Ð´Ð°ÑÐ¸, ÐºÐ¾ÑÐ¾ÑÑÐµ ÑÐµÑÐ°Ð»Ð¸ÑÑ Ð² ÑÐ¾Ð´Ðµ Ð¸ÑÑÐ»ÐµÐ´Ð¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ: 1. ÐÐ·ÑÑÐµÐ½Ð¸Ðµ Ð¿ÑÐµÐ´Ð¼ÐµÑÐ½Ð¾Ð¹ Ð¾Ð±Ð»Ð°ÑÑÐ¸ Ð¸ Ð°Ð½Ð°Ð»Ð¸Ð· ÑÑÑÐµÑÑÐ²ÑÑÑÐ¸Ñ Ð¼ÐµÑÐ¾Ð´Ð¾Ð² Ð¿ÑÐ¸Ð½ÑÑÐ¸Ñ ÑÐµÑÐµÐ½Ð¸Ð¹ 2. ÐÐ¾Ð´Ð¸ÑÐ¸ÐºÐ°ÑÐ¸Ñ ÐºÐ»Ð°ÑÑÐ¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¾Ð¹ ÑÐ¾ÑÐ¼ÑÐ»Ñ ÐÐ°Ð¹ÐµÑÐ° 3. Ð Ð°Ð·ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÐºÐ° ÐºÐ¾Ð½ÑÐ¾Ð»ÑÐ½Ð¾Ð³Ð¾ Ð¿ÑÐ¸Ð»Ð¾Ð¶ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ Ð´Ð»Ñ Ð·Ð°Ð´Ð°Ñ Ð¿ÑÐ¸Ð½ÑÑÐ¸Ñ ÑÐµÑÐµÐ½Ð¸Ð¹ 4. ÐÐ½Ð°Ð»Ð¸Ð· Ð¿Ð¾Ð»ÑÑÐµÐ½Ð½ÑÑ ÑÐµÐ·ÑÐ»ÑÑÐ°ÑÐ¾Ð² Ð ÑÑÐ¾Ð¹ ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÐµ Ð¸Ð·ÑÑÐ°Ð»Ð°ÑÑ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð±Ð»ÐµÐ¼Ð° Ð²Ð¾Ð·Ð´ÐµÐ¹ÑÑÐ²Ð¸Ñ ÑÐµÑÐµÐ½Ð¸Ð¹ Ð´ÑÑÐ³Ð¸Ñ Ð»ÑÐ´ÐµÐ¹ Ð½Ð° Ð¿Ð¾ÑÐ»ÐµÐ´Ð¾Ð²Ð°ÑÐµÐ»ÑÐ½ÑÐ¹ Ð¿ÑÐ¾ÑÐµÑÑ Ð¿ÑÐ¸Ð½ÑÑÐ¸Ñ ÑÐµÑÐµÐ½Ð¸Ð¹. ÐÑÐ»Ð¾ ÑÐ¾Ð·Ð´Ð°Ð½Ð¾ ÐºÐ¾Ð½ÑÐ¾Ð»ÑÐ½Ð¾Ðµ Ð¿ÑÐ¸Ð»Ð¾Ð¶ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ðµ c Ð³ÑÐ°ÑÐ¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¸Ð¼ Ð¸Ð½ÑÐµÑÑÐµÐ¹ÑÐ¾Ð¼ Ð´Ð»Ñ Ð¿Ð¾Ð´Ð´ÐµÑÐ¶ÐºÐ¸ ÑÐ°ÐºÐ¸Ñ ÑÐµÑÐµÐ½Ð¸Ð¹. ÐÐ»Ñ Ð´Ð¾ÑÑÐ¸Ð¶ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ Ð´Ð°Ð½Ð½Ð¾Ð¹ ÑÐµÐ»Ð¸ Ð±ÑÐ» ÑÐ¾Ð·Ð´Ð°Ð½ Ð½Ð°Ð±Ð¾Ñ Ð¼ÐµÑÐ¾Ð´Ð¾Ð², Ð¼Ð¾Ð´Ð¸ÑÐ¸ÑÐ¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð½ÑÑ Ð¾Ñ ÐºÐ»Ð°ÑÑÐ¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¾Ð¹ ÐÐ°Ð¹ÐµÑÐ¾Ð²ÑÐºÐ¾Ð¹ ÑÐ¾ÑÐ¼ÑÐ»Ñ. Ð ÑÐ¾Ð¼ ÑÐ¸ÑÐ»Ðµ Ð¿Ð¾Ð´ÑÐ¾Ð´, ÐºÐ¾ÑÐ¾ÑÑÐ¹ ÑÑÐ¸ÑÑÐ²Ð°ÐµÑ Ð²ÐµÑ Ð»Ð¸Ñ, Ð¿ÑÐ¸Ð½Ð¸Ð¼Ð°ÑÑÐ¸Ñ ÑÐµÑÐµÐ½Ð¸Ðµ, Ð° ÑÐ°ÐºÐ¶Ðµ Ð²ÐµÑ Ð°Ð²ÑÐ¾ÑÐ¸ÑÐµÑÐ½Ð¾Ð³Ð¾ Ð»Ð¸ÑÐ°. Ð ÐµÐ·ÑÐ»ÑÑÐ°ÑÑ Ð¿Ð¾ÐºÐ°Ð·Ð°Ð»Ð¸, ÑÑÐ¾ Ð¼Ð¾Ð´Ð¸ÑÐ¸ÑÐ¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð½ÑÐµ Ð¼ÐµÑÐ¾Ð´Ñ Ð¿Ð¾Ð²ÑÑÐ°ÑÑ ÑÐ¾ÑÐ½Ð¾ÑÑÑ Ð¿ÑÐ¸Ð½ÑÑÐ¸Ñ ÑÐµÑÐµÐ½Ð¸Ð¹.
description: This work is devoted to modifications of the classical Bayes formula. The work is aimed at obtaining additional factors that help make a more accurate and informed decision. Problems that were solved during the study: 1. Study of the subject area and analysis of existing decision-making methods 2. Modification of the classical Bayes formula 3. Development of a console application for decision-making tasks 4. Analysis of the results obtained This work examined the problem of the impact of other peoples decisions on the sequential decision-making process. A console application with a graphical interface was created to support such solutions. To achieve this goal, a set of methods was created, modified from the classical Bayesian formula. Including an approach that considers the weight of decision makers, as well as the weight of the authority figure. The results showed that the modified methods improved the accuracy of decision making.