Monetary Policy, Asset Price and Economic Growth
Creators: name: Fiodendji, Komlan
Publisher: name: Université d'Ottawa / University of Ottawa
Year: 2012
Subjects: Asymmetric and nonlinear preferences
Threshold models
Asset prices
Interest reaction function
Inflation
Relative price variability
Economic growth
Bank of Canada
Cross-section dependence

description: The relations between monetary policies, asset prices, and economic growth are important and fundamental questions in macroeconomics. To address these issues, several empirical works have been conducted to investigate these relations. However, few of them have documented whether these relations differ across regimes. In this context, the general motivation of this thesis is to use dependent regime models to examine these relations for the Canadian case. Chapter one empirically analyzes the interest rate behaviour of the Canadian monetary authorities by taking into account the asymmetry in the loss function. We employ a switching regime framework using two estimation strategies: First, we follow Caner and Hansen (2004) Threshold approach. Under this procedure we estimate the threshold values, using the Taylor empirical rules. Second, we estimate the asymmetric policy reaction function following Favero and Rovelli’s (2003) approach. The results reveal that the monetary authorities showed asymmetric preferences and that its reaction function can be better modeled with a nonlinear model. The main contribution of this chapter is to successfully interpret the parameters associated with the Bank of Canada preferences, something that Rodriguez (2008) could not do. Chapter two tries to estimate the interest rate behaviour of the Canadian monetary authorities by expanding the arguments of the loss function for fluctuations in asset prices. Using the same methodology as in the first chapter, our findings suggest that the augmented nonlinear reaction function is a good fit for the data and gives new relevant insights into the influence of asset prices on Canadian monetary policy. These findings about the role of asset prices in the reaction function of the Bank of Canada provide relevant insights regarding the opportunities and limitations of incorporating financial indicators in monetary policy decision making. They also provide financial market participants, such as analysts, bankers and traders, with a better understanding of the impact of stock market index prices on Bank of Canada policy. Stock market stabilization plays a larger role in the interest rate decisions of the Bank of Canada than it is willing to admit. Chapter three provides new evidence on the relation between inflation, relative price variability and economic growth to a panel of Canadian provinces over the period 1981-2008. We use the Bick and Nautz (2008) modified version of Hansen’s (1999) Panel Threshold Model. The evidence strongly supports the view that the relationship between inflation and economic growth is nonlinear. Further investigation suggests that relative price variability is one of the important channels through which inflation affects economic performance in Canadian provinces. When taking into account the cross-section dependence, we find that the critical threshold value slightly changes. It is desirable to keep the inflation rate in a moderate inflation regime because it may be helpful for the achievement of sustainable economic growth. The results seem to indicate that inflation that is too high or too low may have detrimental effects on economic growth.