title: Ð Ð°Ð·ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÐºÐ° ÑÐºÐ¾Ð½Ð¾Ð¼ÐµÑÑÐ¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¸Ñ Ð¼Ð¾Ð´ÐµÐ»ÐµÐ¹ ÑÐµÐ»ÑÑÐºÐ¾Ð³Ð¾ Ñ Ð¾Ð·ÑÐ¹ÑÑÐ²Ð° ÐÐµÐ½Ð¸Ð½Ð³ÑÐ°Ð´ÑÐºÐ¾Ð¹ Ð¾Ð±Ð»Ð°ÑÑÐ¸ Ð¸ Ð ÐµÑÐ¿ÑÐ±Ð»Ð¸ÐºÐ¸ ÐÐ°ÑÐµÐ»Ð¸Ñ
title: Ð²ÑÐ¿ÑÑÐºÐ½Ð°Ñ ÐºÐ²Ð°Ð»Ð¸ÑÐ¸ÐºÐ°ÑÐ¸Ð¾Ð½Ð½Ð°Ñ ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÐ° Ð¼Ð°Ð³Ð¸ÑÑÑÐ°
titleType: Subtitle
Creators: name: ÐÐ¾Ð¹ÐºÐ¾Ð², ÐÐ»Ð°Ð´Ð¸ÑÐ»Ð°Ð²
Publisher: name: Ð¡Ð°Ð½ÐºÑ-ÐÐµÑÐµÑÐ±ÑÑÐ³ÑÐºÐ¸Ð¹ Ð¿Ð¾Ð»Ð¸ÑÐµÑÐ½Ð¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¸Ð¹ ÑÐ½Ð¸Ð²ÐµÑÑÐ¸ÑÐµÑ ÐÐµÑÑÐ° ÐÐµÐ»Ð¸ÐºÐ¾Ð³Ð¾
Year: 2020
Subjects: Ð­ÐºÐ¾Ð½Ð¾Ð¼ÐµÑÑÐ¸ÐºÐ°
ÐÐµÐ½Ð¸Ð½Ð³ÑÐ°Ð´ÑÐºÐ°Ñ Ð¾Ð±Ð»Ð°ÑÑÑ
ÑÐµÐ»ÑÑÐºÐ¾Ðµ
ÑÐ°ÑÑÐµÐ½Ð¸ÐµÐ²Ð¾Ð´ÑÑÐ²Ð¾
ÑÐµÑÐ¿ÑÐ±Ð»Ð¸ÐºÐ° ÐÐ°ÑÐµÐ»Ð¸Ñ
ÐÐµÐ¼Ð³Ð°Ð»Ðµ
Ð¼Ð¾Ð´ÐµÐ»Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ðµ
ÑÐºÐ¾Ð½Ð¾Ð¼ÐµÑÑÐ¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¸Ðµ Ð¼ÐµÑÐ¾Ð´Ñ
adl Ð¼Ð¾Ð´ÐµÐ»Ð¸
arima Ð¼Ð¾Ð´ÐµÐ»Ð¸
Ñ Ð¾Ð·ÑÐ¹ÑÑÐ²Ð¾ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ðµ
ÑÐºÐ¾Ð½Ð¾Ð¼ÐµÑÑÐ¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¸Ðµ Ð¼Ð¾Ð´ÐµÐ»Ð¸
ÑÐµÐ»ÑÑÐºÐ¾Ðµ Ñ Ð¾Ð·ÑÐ¹ÑÑÐ²Ð¾

description: Ð ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÐµ Ð¿ÑÐ¸Ð²ÐµÐ´ÐµÐ½Ð° Ð¼ÐµÑÐ¾Ð´Ð¸ÐºÐ° Ð¿Ð¾ÑÑÑÐ¾ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ Ð´Ð²ÑÑ ÐºÐ»Ð°ÑÑÐ¾Ð² ÑÐºÐ¾Ð½Ð¾Ð¼ÐµÑÑÐ¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¸Ñ Ð¼Ð¾Ð´ÐµÐ»ÐµÐ¹ (ADL Ð¸ ARIMA Ð¼Ð¾Ð´ÐµÐ»Ð¸) Ð´Ð»Ñ ÑÐ°ÑÑÐµÐ½Ð¸ÐµÐ²Ð¾Ð´ÑÑÐ²Ð° Ð´Ð²ÑÑ ÑÐ¾ÑÑÐ¸Ð¹ÑÐºÐ¸Ñ ÑÐµÐ³Ð¸Ð¾Ð½Ð¾Ð² Ð¸ Ð»Ð°ÑÐ²Ð¸Ð¹ÑÐºÐ¾Ð³Ð¾ ÑÐµÐ³Ð¸Ð¾Ð½Ð° ÐÐµÐ¼Ð³Ð°Ð»Ðµ. Ð ÐºÐ°ÑÐµÑÑÐ²Ðµ ÑÐ½Ð´Ð¾Ð³ÐµÐ½Ð½ÑÑ Ð¿ÐµÑÐµÐ¼ÐµÐ½Ð½ÑÑ Ð´Ð»Ñ ADL Ð¸ ARIMA Ð¼Ð¾Ð´ÐµÐ»ÐµÐ¹ Ð²ÑÑÑÑÐ¿Ð¸Ð»Ð¸ Ð²Ð°Ð»Ð¾Ð²ÑÐ¹ ÑÐ±Ð¾Ñ ÐºÐ°ÑÑÐ¾ÑÐµÐ»Ñ, Ð¾Ð²Ð¾ÑÐµÐ¹ Ð¸ Ð·ÐµÑÐ½Ð¾Ð²ÑÑ ÐºÑÐ»ÑÑÑÑ Ð´Ð»Ñ ÐºÐ°Ð¶Ð´Ð¾Ð³Ð¾ ÑÐµÐ³Ð¸Ð¾Ð½Ð° Ð¸ÑÑÐ»ÐµÐ´Ð¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ, Ð° Ð² ÐºÐ°ÑÐµÑÑÐ²Ðµ ÑÐºÐ·Ð¾Ð³ÐµÐ½Ð½ÑÑ (ÑÐ¾Ð»ÑÐºÐ¾ Ð´Ð»Ñ ADL) â ÑÑÐ¾Ð¶Ð°Ð¹Ð½Ð¾ÑÑÑ Ð¸ Ð¿Ð»Ð¾ÑÐ°Ð´Ñ Ð¿Ð¾ÑÐµÐ²Ð½ÑÑ Ð¿Ð¾ÑÐµÐ²Ð¾Ð² Ð´Ð»Ñ ÐºÐ°Ð¶Ð´Ð¾Ð¹ ÑÐ½Ð´Ð¾Ð³ÐµÐ½Ð½Ð¾Ð¹. ÐÐ° Ð¾ÑÐ½Ð¾Ð²Ðµ Ð²ÑÐ±ÑÐ°Ð½Ð½ÑÑ Ð¿ÐµÑÐµÐ¼ÐµÐ½Ð½ÑÑ Ð±ÑÐ»Ð¸ Ð¿Ð¾ÑÑÑÐ¾ÐµÐ½Ñ ADL Ð¸ ARIMA. ÐÑÐ»Ð¾ ÑÑÑÐ°Ð½Ð¾Ð²Ð»ÐµÐ½Ð¾, ÑÑÐ¾ Ð½Ð°Ð¸Ð±Ð¾Ð»ÐµÐµ ÑÐ¾ÑÐ½ÑÐµ Ð¼Ð¾Ð´ÐµÐ»Ð¸ Ð´Ð»Ñ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð° â ÑÑÐ¾ Ð¼Ð¾Ð´ÐµÐ»Ð¸ ADL, Ð¾Ð´Ð½Ð°ÐºÐ¾, Ð¾Ð½Ð¸ Ð¿Ð¾Ð»ÑÑÐ¸Ð»Ð¸ÑÑ Ð½ÐµÐ¾Ð´Ð½Ð¾ÑÐ¾Ð´Ð½ÑÐ¼Ð¸ Ð¸ Ð½ÐµÐºÐ¾ÑÑÐµÐºÑÐ½ÑÐ¼Ð¸ Ð´Ð»Ñ ÑÑÐ°Ð²Ð½ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ. Ð Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð³Ðµ Ð±ÑÐ» ÑÐ´ÐµÐ»Ð°Ð½ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð· ÑÐ¾Ð»ÑÐºÐ¾ Ð¿Ð¾ ARIMA Ð¼Ð¾Ð´ÐµÐ»ÑÐ¼. 
ÐÐ¾ ÑÐµÐ·ÑÐ»ÑÑÐ°ÑÐ°Ð¼ Ð°Ð½Ð°Ð»Ð¸Ð·Ð° Ð´Ð¸Ð½Ð°Ð¼Ð¸ÐºÐ¸ Ð¿Ð¾ÐºÐ°Ð·Ð°ÑÐµÐ»ÐµÐ¹ Ð¸ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð° Ð½Ð° Ð´Ð²Ð° Ð³Ð¾Ð´Ð°, Ð±ÑÐ»Ð¾ Ð²ÑÑÐ²Ð»ÐµÐ½Ð¾, ÑÑÐ¾ Ð² Ð´Ð²ÑÑ Ð¾ÑÐµÑÐµÑÑÐ²ÐµÐ½Ð½ÑÑ ÑÐµÐ³Ð¸Ð¾Ð½Ð¾Ð² Ð¿Ð¾ Ð´Ð²ÑÐ¼ ÑÐµÐ»ÑÑÐºÐ¾ÑÐ¾Ð·ÑÐ¹ÑÑÐ²ÐµÐ½Ð½ÑÐ¼ Ð²Ð¸Ð´Ð°Ð¼ ÑÐ°ÑÑÐµÐ½Ð¸ÐµÐ²Ð¾Ð´ÑÑÐ²Ð° â ÐºÐ°ÑÑÐ¾ÑÐµÐ»Ñ, Ð¾Ð²Ð¾ÑÐ¸ Ð·Ð°ÑÐ¸ÐºÑÐ¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð° Ð¼Ð½Ð¾Ð³Ð¾Ð»ÐµÑÐ½ÑÑ ÑÑÐ°Ð³Ð½Ð°ÑÐ¸Ñ. Ð¡ÑÐ°Ð²Ð½ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ðµ Ñ Ð»Ð°ÑÐ²Ð¸Ð¹ÑÐºÐ¸Ð¼ ÑÐµÐ³Ð¸Ð¾Ð½Ð¾Ð¼ Ð¿Ð¾ÐºÐ°Ð·Ð°Ð»Ð¾, ÑÑÐ¾ Ð¿ÑÐ°ÐºÑÐ¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¸ Ð¿Ð¾ Ð²ÑÐµÐ¼ Ð²Ð¸Ð´Ð°Ð¼ Ð»Ð°ÑÐ²Ð¸Ð¹ÑÐºÐ¸Ð¹ ÑÐµÐ³Ð¸Ð¾Ð½ ÐÐµÐ¼Ð³Ð°Ð»Ðµ Ð¸Ð¼ÐµÐµÑ Ð¿Ð¾Ð»Ð¾Ð¶Ð¸ÑÐµÐ»ÑÐ½ÑÑ Ð´Ð¸Ð½Ð°Ð¼Ð¸ÐºÑ Ð¾Ð±ÑÑÐ¼Ð¾Ð² Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð¸Ð·Ð²Ð¾Ð´ÑÑÐ²Ð° ÑÐµÐ»ÑÑÐºÐ¾ÑÐ¾Ð·ÑÐ¹ÑÑÐ²ÐµÐ½Ð½Ð¾Ð¹ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð´ÑÐºÑÐ¸Ð¸. Ð¤Ð¸Ð½Ð°Ð»ÑÐ½ÑÐ¼ ÑÑÐ°Ð¿Ð¾Ð¼ ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÑ ÑÑÐ°Ð»Ð° ÑÐ°Ð·ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÐºÐ° ÑÐµÐºÐ¾Ð¼ÐµÐ½Ð´Ð°ÑÐ¸Ð¹ Ð¿Ð¾ ÑÐ°Ð·Ð²Ð¸ÑÐ¸Ñ ÑÐ°ÑÑÐµÐ½Ð¸ÐµÐ²Ð¾Ð´ÑÑÐ²Ð° Ð¸ ÑÐµÐ»ÑÑÐºÐ¾Ð³Ð¾ ÑÐ¾Ð·ÑÐ¹ÑÑÐ²Ð° Ð² ÑÐµÐ»Ð¾Ð¼ Ð´Ð»Ñ Ð¾ÑÐµÑÐµÑÑÐ²ÐµÐ½Ð½ÑÑ ÑÐµÐ³Ð¸Ð¾Ð½Ð¾Ð².
description: The paper presents a method for constructing two classes of econometric models (ADL and ARIMA models) for crop production in two Russian regions and the Latvian region of Zemgale. The endogenous variables for the ADL and ARIMA models were the gross yield of potatoes, vegetables, and cereals for each researchâs region, and the exogenous variables (for ADL only) were the yield and acreage for each endogenous variables. Based on the selected variables, ADL and ARIMA models were built. It was found that the most accurate models for forecasting are ADL models, however, they turned out to be heterogeneous and incorrect for comparison. 
As a result, a forecast was made only on ARIMA models. According to the results of the analysis of the dynamics of indicators and the forecast for two years, it was found that in two domestic regions for two agricultural types of crop production - potatoes, vegetables, long-term stagnation was recorded. Comparison with the Latvian region showed that in almost all types the Latvian region of Zemgale has a positive dynamics in agricultural production. The final stage of the work was the development of recommendations on the development of crop production and agriculture in general for domestic regions.