The MATOPIBA agricultural frontier in Brazil between 2001-2014, Tree Cover Loss and the impact of the Soybeans Moratorium
Creators: name: Barbirato, Felipe
Publisher: name: figshare
Year: 2016
Subjects: subject: 50102 Ecosystem Function
subject: FOS: Earth and related environmental sciences
subject: FOS: Earth and related environmental sciences
subject: 40104 Climate Change Processes
subject: 140205 Environment and Resource Economics
subject: FOS: Economics and business
subject: FOS: Economics and business
subject: 140304 Panel Data Analysis

description: Final dissertation part of the MSc in Ecosystem Services taken at the University of Edinburgh from 2015 to 2016. <br>MATOPIBA is located in Central/NE Brazil and is the final extensive agricultural frontier in the country. It is comprised of 337 municipalities and 31 micro regions across four states and covers an area of approximately 73 million ha. A complex agrarian structure is present with Rural settlements, Conservation Units, Indigenous reserves and <i>Quilombolas </i>all found in the area. Over 90% of MATOPIBA is situated in the Cerrado<i> </i>(a global hotspot for biodiversity) and over 60% is located within the “Legal Amazon”. Cerrado is a crucial biome for Brazil’s agricultural production but deforestation rates and indirect GHG emissions from land-use changes are high. Nearly half of its original vegetation was degraded or deforested and only 3% of its area is integrally protected. There is some evidence to suggest that deforestation rates in MATOPIBA may be higher than those in Cerrado as a whole. The research compiled data on agricultural production and Tree Cover Loss for MATOPIBA from 2001 to 2014. Special attention is given to temporary crops and nine were identified as leading crops for the region as a whole. There is great level of specialization even among municipalities in the same micro region and this was one of the reasons why a linear relationship could not be established between TCL in the period and each individual crop. Soybean is the leading crop for MATOPIBA. A comparison with yields for Brazil is presented for all crops found in MATOPIBA. The west of Bahia is the leading producer of soybeans but Balsas (Maranhão) is gaining importance. Tree Cover Loss (TCL) data was also compiled and there is an increasing trend. In the period, TCL for 334 municipalities was 5.56 ha and there was a satisfactory correlation with official deforestation rates observed until 2011. Interesting correlations of TCL with GDP/capita, illiteracy rate, HDI and number of settled families were found. Highest TCL rates were in micro regions in Bahia and Maranhão. Land-use change pressures occur at different magnitudes within the region and is dependent on availability of land, level of production and productivity/intensification (yields). Low yields create further pressure on TCL if food and commodities demand continue to increase. Climate change may already be affecting the agricultural yields in MATOPIBA, with harvest losses reported for 2015/2016. Furthermore, the research investigated the TCL in MATOPIBA before and after the Soybeans <i>Moratorium </i>for the Amazon biome implemented in July 2006. A statistical significant difference was found for the TCL between two periods (2001-2007 x 2008-2014) with average and sum of TCL of municipalities planting soybeans being higher after the <i>Moratorium </i>was implemented. This raises concern whether the pact is creating leakage deforestation from the Amazon towards this agricultural frontier in Cerrado.