title: ÐÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð· Ð¿Ð°ÑÐ°Ð¼ÐµÑÑÐ¾Ð² Ð´Ð¾Ð±ÑÑÐ¸ Ð³Ð°Ð·Ð° Ð½Ð° Ð¾ÑÐ½Ð¾Ð²Ðµ Ð°Ð½Ð°Ð»Ð¸Ð·Ð° Ð¸Ñ Ð²ÑÐµÐ¼ÐµÐ½Ð½ÑÑ ÑÑÐ´Ð¾Ð²
title: Ð²ÑÐ¿ÑÑÐºÐ½Ð°Ñ ÐºÐ²Ð°Ð»Ð¸ÑÐ¸ÐºÐ°ÑÐ¸Ð¾Ð½Ð½Ð°Ñ ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÐ° Ð±Ð°ÐºÐ°Ð»Ð°Ð²ÑÐ°
titleType: Subtitle
title: Forecast of gas production parameters based on the analysis of their time series
Creators: name: ÐÑÐ¸ÑÐ½Ð¸ÐºÐ¾Ð², ÐÐ²Ð³ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ð¹
Publisher: name: Ð¡Ð°Ð½ÐºÑ-ÐÐµÑÐµÑÐ±ÑÑÐ³ÑÐºÐ¸Ð¹ Ð¿Ð¾Ð»Ð¸ÑÐµÑÐ½Ð¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¸Ð¹ ÑÐ½Ð¸Ð²ÐµÑÑÐ¸ÑÐµÑ ÐÐµÑÑÐ° ÐÐµÐ»Ð¸ÐºÐ¾Ð³Ð¾
Year: 2021
Subjects: Ð³Ð°Ð·
Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ðµ
Ð²ÑÐµÐ¼ÐµÐ½Ð½ÑÐµ ÑÑÐ´Ñ
Ð°Ð²ÑÐ¾ÑÐµÐ³ÑÐµÑÑÐ¸Ñ
ÑÐºÐ¾Ð»ÑÐ·ÑÑÐµÐµ ÑÑÐµÐ´Ð½ÐµÐµ
arima
javascript
gas
forecasting
time series
autoregressive
moving average

description: ÐÐ°Ð½Ð½Ð°Ñ ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÐ° Ð¿Ð¾ÑÐ²ÑÑÐµÐ½Ð° ÑÐ°Ð·ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÐºÐµ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³ÑÐ°Ð¼Ð¼Ð½Ð¾Ð³Ð¾ Ð¸Ð½ÑÑÑÑÐ¼ÐµÐ½ÑÐ°, ÑÐ¿Ð¾ÑÐ¾Ð±Ð½Ð¾Ð³Ð¾ Ð² Ð°Ð²ÑÐ¾Ð¼Ð°ÑÐ¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¾Ð¼ ÑÐµÐ¶Ð¸Ð¼Ðµ Ð¾ÑÑÑÐµÑÑÐ²Ð»ÑÑÑ ÐºÑÐ°ÑÐºÐ¾ÑÑÐ¾ÑÐ½Ð¾Ðµ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ðµ Ð¾Ð¿ÐµÑÐ°ÑÐ¸Ð¾Ð½Ð½ÑÑ Ð¸ ÑÑÑÐ°ÑÐµÐ³Ð¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¸Ñ Ð¿Ð¾ÐºÐ°Ð·Ð°ÑÐµÐ»ÐµÐ¹. ÐÐ°Ð´Ð°ÑÐ¸, ÐºÐ¾ÑÐ¾ÑÑÐµ ÑÐµÑÐ°Ð»Ð¸ÑÑ Ð² ÑÐ¾Ð´Ðµ Ð¸ÑÑÐ»ÐµÐ´Ð¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ: 1. ÐÑÑÐ»ÐµÐ´Ð¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ðµ Ð·Ð°Ð´Ð°Ñ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ Ð² Ð³Ð°Ð·Ð¾Ð´Ð¾Ð±ÑÐ²Ð°ÑÑÐµÐ¹ Ð¾ÑÑÐ°ÑÐ»Ð¸. 2. ÐÐ·ÑÑÐµÐ½Ð¸Ðµ Ð¼Ð°ÑÐµÐ¼Ð°ÑÐ¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¾Ð¹ ÑÐµÐ¾ÑÐ¸Ð¸ Ð°Ð½Ð°Ð»Ð¸Ð·Ð° Ð²ÑÐµÐ¼ÐµÐ½Ð½ÑÑ ÑÑÐ´Ð¾Ð². 3. ÐÑÐ±Ð¾Ñ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³ÑÐ°Ð¼Ð¼Ð½ÑÑ Ð¸Ð½ÑÑÑÑÐ¼ÐµÐ½ÑÐ¾Ð² Ð´Ð»Ñ ÑÐ¾Ð·Ð´Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³ÑÐ°Ð¼Ð¼Ð½Ð¾Ð³Ð¾ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð´ÑÐºÑÐ°. 4. ÐÑÐ°ÐºÑÐ¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ°Ñ ÑÐµÐ°Ð»Ð¸Ð·Ð°ÑÐ¸Ñ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³ÑÐ°Ð¼Ð¼Ð½Ð¾Ð³Ð¾ Ð¸Ð½ÑÑÑÑÐ¼ÐµÐ½ÑÐ° Ð´Ð»Ñ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ. 5. Ð¢ÐµÑÑÐ¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ðµ ÑÐ°Ð·ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÐ°Ð½Ð½Ð¾Ð¹ ÑÐ¸ÑÑÐµÐ¼Ñ. Ð ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÐµ ÑÐ°ÑÑÐ¼Ð¾ÑÑÐµÐ½Ð° Ð¿ÑÐµÐ´Ð¼ÐµÑÐ½Ð°Ñ Ð¾Ð±Ð»Ð°ÑÑÑ, Ð² ÐºÐ¾ÑÐ¾ÑÐ¾Ð¹ Ð¿Ð»Ð°Ð½Ð¸ÑÑÐµÑÑÑ Ð¿ÑÐ¸Ð¼ÐµÐ½ÑÑÑ ÑÐ°Ð·ÑÐ°Ð±Ð°ÑÑÐ²Ð°ÐµÐ¼ÑÐ¹ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð´ÑÐºÑ, Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð°Ð½Ð°Ð»Ð¸Ð·Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ñ ÑÑÑÐµÑÑÐ²ÑÑÑÐ¸Ðµ ÑÐµÑÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ, ÑÐ°ÑÑÐ¼Ð¾ÑÑÐµÐ½Ð° Ð¼Ð°ÑÐµÐ¼Ð°ÑÐ¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ°Ñ Ð±Ð°Ð·Ð° Ð°Ð½Ð°Ð»Ð¸Ð·Ð° Ð²ÑÐµÐ¼ÐµÐ½Ð½ÑÑ ÑÑÐ´Ð¾Ð², ÑÐ°Ð·ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÐ°Ð½ Ð¿ÑÐ¾ÑÐ¾ÑÐ¸Ð¿ Ð²ÐµÐ±-Ð¿ÑÐ¸Ð»Ð¾Ð¶ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ, Ð¾ÑÑÑÐµÑÑÐ²Ð»ÑÑÑÐµÐ³Ð¾ Ð²ÑÐ²Ð¾Ð´ Ð´Ð°Ð½Ð½ÑÑ Ð½Ð° Ð³ÑÐ°ÑÐ¸Ðº Ð¸ Ð¿Ð¾ÑÑÑÐ¾ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ðµ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð° Ð¿Ð¾ Ð½Ð¸Ð¼, ÑÐµÐ°Ð»Ð¸Ð·Ð¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ñ Ð¼ÐµÑÐ¾Ð´Ñ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ: Ð°Ð²ÑÐ¾ÑÐµÐ³ÑÐµÑÑÐ¸Ñ, ÑÐºÐ¾Ð»ÑÐ·ÑÑÐµÐµ ÑÑÐµÐ´Ð½ÐµÐµ Ð¸ Ð¸Ñ ÐºÐ¾Ð¼Ð±Ð¸Ð½Ð°ÑÐ¸Ñ. ÐÑÐ¿Ð¾Ð»Ð½ÐµÐ½Ð¾ ÑÐµÑÑÐ¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ðµ Ð¸ Ð¾ÑÐµÐ½ÐµÐ½Ð° ÑÐ¾ÑÐ½Ð¾ÑÑÑ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ. Ð ÐµÐ·ÑÐ»ÑÑÐ°ÑÑ ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÑ Ð¼Ð¾Ð³ÑÑ Ð±ÑÑÑ Ð¸ÑÐ¿Ð¾Ð»ÑÐ·Ð¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ñ Ð² Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³ÑÐ°Ð¼Ð¼Ð½Ð¾Ð¼ Ð¾Ð±ÐµÑÐ¿ÐµÑÐµÐ½Ð¸Ð¸ Ð³Ð°Ð·Ð¾Ð´Ð¾Ð±ÑÐ²Ð°ÑÑÐ¸Ñ Ð¿ÑÐµÐ´Ð¿ÑÐ¸ÑÑÐ¸Ð¹.
description: This work is devoted to the development of a software tool capable of automatically carrying out short-term forecasting of operational and strategic indicators. Tasks that were solved in the course of the study: 1. Research of forecasting problems in the gas industry. 2. Studying the mathematical theory of time series analysis. 3. The choice of software tools for creating a software product. 4. Practical implementation of a software tool for forecasting. 5. Testing the developed system. The work considers the subject area in which it is planned to apply the developed product, analyze existing solutions, consider the mathematical base for analyzing time series, develop a prototype of a web application that displays data on a graph and builds a forecast based on them, implements forecasting methods: autoregressive, moving average, and their combination. Testing was performed and the forecasting accuracy was evaluated. The results of the work can be used in the software of gas production enterprises.