Sustainable energy delivery models for off grid rural areas of Nigeria
Creators: name: Bello, Hafiz
Publisher: name: Imperial College London
Year: 2020

description: Expanding infrastructure is crucial in bringing about development in the rural off-grid areas of developing countries. In the last decade, energy access and electrification has come to the forefront as crucial infrastructure for the currently unserved, a priority of national governments and international bodies. The United Nations for example designated the year 2030 as the target to extending modern energy and electricity access to all, according to its UN Sustainable Energy for All goals. Decentralised energy solutions using renewable sources especially solar energy have been touted as a model that can bring about accelerated access to the currently unserved. However, since their deployment became popular on the African continent, there has been a gap in their ability to match anticipated potential. Of the numerous barriers facing the successful deployment of decentralised energy solutions, this PhD research is hinged on the critical role institutions play, in meeting the urgent and timely delivery of the energy for all goals. Using a socio-technical approach, the research did the following; i. Made the case for dividing the institutional processes into two main components – Actors (users and providers) and the Object (the domain of governance), using the theoretical standpoints of the Innovation System Analysis and common pool resource (CPR) theory. The functions of innovation systems (FIS) framework and the Institutional Analysis and Development (IAD) framework were used as a tool for analysis to reveal the system functions required for successful technological transitions and what influences and incentivises these processes respectively. ii. Highlighted the systematic linkages between these two domains (generating a qualitative conceptual framework FIS-IAD) to understand the processes that happen when actors and object co-evolve within delivery institutions. iii. Identify collapse scenarios of moral hazard and adverse selection outcomes generated by these processes in order to counteract the momentum towards unsustainability in decentralised rural electricity provision using mini-grids. In executing the steps mentioned above, an event history analysis based on the FIS framework was carried out to capture the breakdown and build-up of institutional structures within the governance of solar PV rural electrification infrastructure. Using Nigeria as a case study, the key findings of the research reveal a misalignment between the users and providers of mini-grid electricity infrastructure as a major reason for the unanticipated outcomes of the mini-grid provision. This misalignment is between the usage rules as stated by the providers and the expectation (driven by social norms of the users) of ownership and control that exist within the local context. Sustainable outcomes are further jeopardised by a lack of clarity on the agency and capabilities of the different actors due to a lack of formal regulation identified within the kilowatt space for energy provision. This finding called for a case of capacity redefinition especially about the belief of user groups on owning and operating the system. Subsequently, a questionnaire survey carried out on two mini-grid case studies complemented the event history analysis findings - by showing how the mini-grid electrification model has performed in terms of social expectations and norms based on selected evaluation criteria. Empirical data from the survey used to generate a causal loop analysis revealed three key findings. First, the balance of control between the providers and the producers of the infrastructure are predominantly reinforcing excludability, thereby affecting utilization levels and preventing the expansion of the infrastructure to other services. Secondly, the authorised actions for the users, defined entry conditions and the creation of positions for community managers of the mini-grid are building blocks toward sustainable usage of the mini-grid model. Lastly, as an expansion to productive usage results mainly from the design and finance choices of the providers and less on the current energy practices by users, the growth of much-needed information rules and learning by doing is inhibited. This study concludes that the existing polycentric management of the off-grid electricity infrastructure in the case studies presented some opportunities for ensuring scalable delivery to meet the energy access goals. Institutional design for electricity access thus needs greater coordination between formal providers of infrastructure and its users is vital to making the mini-grid model for electricity delivery a sustainable option. Crucially, it has been found that the continued supply of electricity is not a guarantee for sustainability, except institutional configurations facilitate the rational choice of individuals to cooperate by embedding the livelihood and coping strategies of the social system in electricity access planning. Overall, stakeholders need to further the debate from techno-economic efficiency to institutional barriers as scalability depends not only on increasing kilowatts but also on the perception and pay off based on future use by consumers. The novel qualitative FIS-IAD framework presented in this research generated an understanding and clarity on expectations from users to bring about the alignment of the incentives of the providers and users of sustainable mini-grid electricity infrastructure models.