Geographic stratification region boundaries as displayed in Figure 1 from Bellwethers of change: population modelling of North Pacific humpback whales from 2002 through 2021 reveals shift from recovery to climate response
Creators: name: Cheeseman, Ted
name: Barlow, Jay
name: Acebes, Jo Marie
name: Audley, Katherina
name: Bejder, Lars
name: Birdsall, Caitlin
name: Bracamontes, Olga
name: Bradford, Amanda
name: Byington, Josie
name: Calambokidis, John
name: Cartwright, Rachel
name: Cedarleaf, Jen
name: Chavez, Andrea
name: Currie, Jens
name: De Castro, Rouenne Camille
name: De Weerdt, Joëlle
name: Doe, Nicole
name: Doniol-Valcroze, Thomas
name: Dracott, Karina
name: Filatova, Olga
name: Finn, Rachel
name: Flynn, Kiirsten
name: Ford, John
name: Frisch-Jordán, Astrid
name: Gabriele, Chris
name: Goodwin, Beth
name: Hayslip, Craig
name: Hildering, Jackie
name: Hill, Marie
name: Jacobsen, Jeff
name: Jiménez-López, M. Esther
name: Jones, Meagan
name: Nozomi, Kobayashi
name: Lammers, Marc
name: Lyman, Edward
name: Malleson, Mark
name: Mamaev, Evgeny
name: Martínez Loustalot, Pamela
name: Masterman, Annie
name: Matkin, Craig O.
name: McMillan, Christie
name: Jeff, Moore
name: Moran, John
name: Neilson, Janet L.
name: Newell, Hayley
name: Okabe, Haruna
name: Marilia, Olio
name: Ortega Ortiz, Christian
name: Pack, Adam
name: Palacios, Daniel
name: Pearson, Heidi
name: Quintana, Ester
name: Ramírez Barragán, Raul
name: Ransome, Nicola
name: Rosales-Nanduca, Hiram
name: Sharpe, Fred
name: Shaw, Tasli
name: Southerland, Ken
name: Stack, Stephanie
name: Staniland, Iain
name: Straley, Janice
name: Szabo, Andrew
name: Teerlink, Suzie
name: Titova, Olga
name: Urban-Ramirez, Jorge
name: van Aswegen, Martin
name: Vinicius, Marcel
name: von Ziegesar, Olga
name: Witteveen, Briana
name: Wray, Janie
name: Yano, Kymberly
name: Yegin, Igor
name: Zwiefelhofer, Denny
name: Clapham, Phil
Publisher: name: The Royal Society
Year: 2024
Subjects: classificationCode: 310399
subject: Ecology not elsewhere classified
classificationCode: 419999
subject: Other environmental sciences not elsewhere classified

description: For the 40 years after the end of commercial whaling in 1976, humpback whale populations in the North Pacific Ocean exhibited a prolonged period of recovery. Using mark–recapture methods on the largest individual photo-identification dataset ever assembled for a cetacean, we estimated annual ocean-basin-wide abundance for the species from 2002 through 2021. Trends in annual estimates describe strong post-whaling era population recovery from 16 875 (± 5955) in 2002 to a peak abundance estimate of 33 488 (± 4455) in 2012. An apparent 20% decline from 2012 to 2021, 33 488 (± 4455) to 26 662 (± 4192), suggests the population abruptly reached carrying capacity due to loss of prey resources. This was particularly evident for humpback whales wintering in Hawaiʻi, where, by 2021, estimated abundance had declined by 34% from a peak in 2013, down to abundance levels previously seen in 2006, and contrasted to an absence of decline in Mainland Mexico breeding humpbacks. The strongest marine heatwave recorded globally to date during the 2014–2016 period appeared to have altered the course of species recovery, with enduring effects. Extending this time series will allow humpback whales to serve as an indicator species for the ecosystem in the face of a changing climate.