title: Pursuit of offshore natural gas development: theoretical insights and the case of Cyprus
title: The pursuit of offshore natural gas development: theoretical insights and the case of Cyprus
titleType: AlternativeTitle
Creators: name: Manolis, Stefanos
Publisher: name: The University of Edinburgh
Year: 2025
Subjects: subject: Offshore natural gas development
subject: geopolitics
subject: Cyprus
subject: Turkey
subject: Neoliberal Institutionalism
subject: Structural Realism

description: This thesis researches the conditions under which Cyprus pursues offshore natural gas (ONG) development in the East Mediterranean. The period under study is roughly the last two decades, ending in 2020 when Covid-19 freezes for considerable time most hydrocarbon activities. Using the theoretical approaches of Neoliberal Institutionalism (NLI) and Structural Realism (SR) to examine Cyprus’ gas development, this thesis tests whether the theoretical expectations of these two overarching theories are supported or undermined. Institutions, gains and interdependence are the core theoretical concepts employed as independent variables. Elaborating on these concepts, core differences between the two theoretical approaches are extracted, from which the theoretical expectations are built. Semi-structured interviews, official reports, statements and speeches, mainly taken from the Cypriot side, but also from regional states, are the key-primary sources of relevant findings, informing the conditions under which Cyprus pursues ONG development. The analysis is separated into three chronologically defined periods that are marked by major developments in the trajectory of gas exploration in Cypriot waters. I systematically examine each of the major events that either facilitate or constrain gas development in each of those periods, by applying three expectations, each from NLI and SR. Evidence shows that Cyprus inclines to NLI expectations, related to institutions formed with regional states such as the ‘tripartites’, and defence alliances, or international organizations such as the European Union (EU) and the United Nations (UN). Cyprus also inclines to interdependence with regional states, and global powers such as France and the United States (US), as well as to mutually beneficial projects with regional states. By following such NLI pathways, Cyprus seeks to develop its ONG on the one hand and to create conditions of security for its safe execution on the other hand. Expert interviews, supported by extensive government documentation show that Cyprus’ authorities have not oriented the state towards a self-help system, as SR would argue, to cover any security deficits that participation in institutions might produce. Cyprus’ contribution to its own security, and the security of its maritime rights, is therefore minimal. Turkey, a neighbouring and powerful regional state, disputes the maritime and sovereignty rights of Cyprus, including with military might. This thesis helps fill gaps in the literature regarding political aspects of energy development in the East Mediterranean, as well as the unique role that a small state, such as Cyprus, might play in a geopolitically tense region, that discovers it has notable gas resources. This thesis also contributes to knowledge of current and future Cypriot governments, about the conditions under which the offshore Cypriot energy endeavour takes place, from an international relations perspective, and potentially to help in future energy and political decisions.