Impact of climate change on black pepper (Piper nigrum L.) cultivation : a global suitability analysis
Creators: name: Grüter, Roman
name: Forrer, Carmen
name: Buchmann, Fabienne
name: Vogel, Roger
name: Ratnaweera, Nils
Publisher: name: ZHAW Zürcher Hochschule für Angewandte Wissenschaften
Year: 2024
Subjects: Black pepper
Climate change
Global
Suitability
Piper nigrum
Modelling
630: Landwirtschaft

description: Black pepper (Piper nigrum L.), renowned as the 'King of Spices,' holds paramount economic importance globally, supporting livelihoods and culinary traditions. The increasing threat of climate change poses a significant challenge to the future of pepper production, yet limited information exists on its specific impacts and potential shifts in suitable growing regions. This study aims to assess how climate change may affect black pepper cultivation conditions globally. To model the current and future cultivation suitability of black pepper on a global scale, a multi-criteria evaluation approach was applied, taking into account climatic, topographic and soil parameters. Growth requirements of black pepper were identified through extensive literature research and expert interviews and classified into four suitability levels. Climate change impacts were projected using outputs from five global circulation models under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP1 2.6 and SSP5 8.5) for future scenarios (2055 and 2085). Global suitability is primarily constrained by low annual precipitation and a high number of dry months. Low minimum temperatures and mean annual temperatures limit suitability in higher altitudes and latitudes. In specific regions or locations, steep slopes and low soil pH are identified as crucial limiting factors. The identified suitable areas include most, but not all of today’s growing regions. Areas of disagreement were rated as unsuitable based on low annual precipitation and long dry periods, indicating that the model assumptions regarding water availability are rather strict. With climate change, both positive and negative changes are expected. Positive changes are associated with higher precipitation or in higher altitudes or latitudes, with increasing temperatures. Negative changes are primarily linked to lower precipitation or prolonged dry periods. Black pepper appears to be not especially sensitive to increasing temperature. High maximum temperatures only become a constraining factor in certain regions in the strongest climate change scenario (SSP5 8.5) by 2085. The future suitability model reveals that with rising temperatures, which is mostly positive for black pepper, precipitation parameters will become relatively more important limiting factors. The model predicts more pronounced suitability changes under accelerated climate change (SSP5 8.5) compared to a more moderate scenario (SSP1 2.6). This study represents the first global assessment of black pepper cultivation suitability under current and future conditions. While identifying shifts in suitable growing regions in most major producing countries due to longterm climate trends, the study did not investigate the impacts of extreme weather events. However, such events might be critical for climate adaptation in black pepper agroecosystems, given their higher expected frequency and intensity associated with climate change. The developed methodology holds potential for broader applications to assess climate change impacts on other important spices and herbs. For more regional assessments, local case studies, experts and data should be taken into account.