title: Ð¤Ð¾ÑÐ¼Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ðµ ÑÐ¸ÑÑÐµÐ¼Ñ ÐºÑÐ°ÑÐºÐ¾ÑÑÐ¾ÑÐ½Ð¾Ð³Ð¾ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ ÑÐ¿ÑÐ¾ÑÐ° Ð² ÑÐ¸ÑÐµÐ¹Ð»Ðµ Ñ Ð¸ÑÐ¿Ð¾Ð»ÑÐ·Ð¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸ÐµÐ¼ IT-ÑÐµÑ Ð½Ð¾Ð»Ð¾Ð³Ð¸Ð¹
title: Ð²ÑÐ¿ÑÑÐºÐ½Ð°Ñ ÐºÐ²Ð°Ð»Ð¸ÑÐ¸ÐºÐ°ÑÐ¸Ð¾Ð½Ð½Ð°Ñ ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÐ° Ð±Ð°ÐºÐ°Ð»Ð°Ð²ÑÐ°
titleType: Subtitle
title: Formation of a short-term forecasting system of demand in retail using IT-technologies
Creators: name: ÐÐ¸ÑÑÑÐ¸Ð½, ÐÐ¸ÐºÐ¾Ð»Ð°Ð¹
Publisher: name: Ð¡Ð°Ð½ÐºÑ-ÐÐµÑÐµÑÐ±ÑÑÐ³ÑÐºÐ¸Ð¹ Ð¿Ð¾Ð»Ð¸ÑÐµÑÐ½Ð¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¸Ð¹ ÑÐ½Ð¸Ð²ÐµÑÑÐ¸ÑÐµÑ ÐÐµÑÑÐ° ÐÐµÐ»Ð¸ÐºÐ¾Ð³Ð¾
Year: 2021
Subjects: ÐºÑÐ°ÑÐºÐ¾ÑÑÐ¾ÑÐ½Ð¾Ðµ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ðµ
ÑÐ¸ÑÐµÐ¹Ð»
Ð°Ð²ÑÐ¾ÑÐµÐ³ÑÐµÑÑÐ¸Ñ
arma
arima
ÐºÐ¾Ð¼Ð¿Ð»ÐµÐºÑÐ½Ð¾Ð·Ð½Ð°ÑÐ½Ð°Ñ Ð°Ð²ÑÐ¾ÑÐµÐ³ÑÐµÑÑÐ¸Ñ
Ð¸Ð½ÑÐ¾ÑÐ¼Ð°ÑÐ¸Ð¾Ð½Ð½ÑÐµ ÑÐ¸ÑÑÐµÐ¼Ñ
short-term forecasting
retail
autoregressive
complex-valued autoregressive
information systems

description: Ð¦ÐµÐ»Ñ ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÑ â Ð¸ÑÑÐ»ÐµÐ´Ð¾Ð²Ð°ÑÑ Ð½Ð° Ð¿ÑÐ°ÐºÑÐ¸ÐºÐµ ÑÐ²Ð¾Ð¹ÑÑÐ²Ð° Ð½Ð¾Ð²Ð¾Ð¹ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð½Ð¾Ð¹ Ð¼Ð¾Ð´ÐµÐ»Ð¸ ReCARE(p,g) Ð¸ Ð¾Ð¿ÑÐµÐ´ÐµÐ»Ð¸ÑÑ ÐµÑ Ð¼ÐµÑÑÐ¾ Ð² ÑÐ¸ÑÑÐµÐ¼Ðµ ÐºÑÐ°ÑÐºÐ¾ÑÑÐ¾ÑÐ½Ð¾Ð³Ð¾ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ ÑÐ¸ÑÐµÐ¹Ð»Ð°. ÐÐ°Ð´Ð°ÑÐ¸ ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÑ: - Ð¸Ð·ÑÑÐµÐ½Ð¸Ðµ ÑÐ¾Ð²ÑÐµÐ¼ÐµÐ½Ð½ÑÑ Ð¼ÐµÑÐ¾Ð´Ð¾Ð² ÐºÑÐ°ÑÐºÐ¾ÑÑÐ¾ÑÐ½Ð¾Ð³Ð¾ ÑÐºÐ¾Ð½Ð¾Ð¼Ð¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¾Ð³Ð¾ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ Ð¸ ÑÐµÐ½Ð´ÐµÐ½ÑÐ¸Ð¹ ÑÐ°Ð·Ð²Ð¸ÑÐ¸Ñ Ð¼ÐµÑÐ¾Ð´Ð¾Ð»Ð¾Ð³Ð¸Ð¸ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾ÑÑÐ¸ÐºÐ¸; - Ð¸ÑÑÐ»ÐµÐ´Ð¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ðµ Ð¾ÑÐ½Ð¾Ð²Ð½ÑÑ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð±Ð»ÐµÐ¼ ÑÑÐ½ÐºÑÐ¸Ð¾Ð½Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ ÑÐ¸ÑÑÐµÐ¼Ñ ÑÐ¸ÑÐµÐ¹Ð»Ð° Ð Ð¾ÑÑÐ¸Ð¸; - Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð²ÐµÐ´ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ðµ ÑÑÐ°Ð²Ð½Ð¸ÑÐµÐ»ÑÐ½Ð¾Ð³Ð¾ Ð°Ð½Ð°Ð»Ð¸Ð·Ð° ÑÐ¾ÑÐ½Ð¾ÑÑÐ¸ ÑÑÑÑ Ð¼ÐµÑÐ¾Ð´Ð¾Ð² ÐºÑÐ°ÑÐºÐ¾ÑÑÐ¾ÑÐ½Ð¾Ð³Ð¾ ÑÐºÐ¾Ð½Ð¾Ð¼Ð¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¾Ð³Ð¾ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ: Ð¼ÐµÑÐ¾Ð´Ð° ÑÐºÑÐ¿Ð¾Ð½ÐµÐ½ÑÐ¸Ð°Ð»ÑÐ½Ð¾Ð³Ð¾ ÑÐ³Ð»Ð°Ð¶Ð¸Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ, Ð°Ð²ÑÐ¾ÑÐµÐ³ÑÐµÑÑÐ¸Ð¹ Ð¸ ÐºÐ¾Ð¼Ð¿Ð»ÐµÐºÑÐ½ÑÑ Ð°Ð²ÑÐ¾ÑÐµÐ³ÑÐµÑÑÐ¸Ð¹ Ð½Ð° ÑÑÐ°ÑÐ¸ÑÑÐ¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¸Ñ Ð´Ð°Ð½Ð½ÑÑ Ð¢Ð "Ð¡ÐµÐ¼ÑÑ"; - Ð¾Ð±ÑÐ»ÐµÐ´Ð¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ðµ ÐÐ¡ Ð¢Ð "Ð¡ÐµÐ¼ÑÑ" Ð¸ Ð¾Ð¿ÑÐµÐ´ÐµÐ»ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ðµ Ð¿ÑÑÐµÐ¹ Ð¸Ð½ÑÐµÐ³ÑÐ°ÑÐ¸Ð¸ Ð² Ð½ÐµÑ Ð¿Ð¾Ð´ÑÐ¸ÑÑÐµÐ¼Ñ ÐºÑÐ°ÑÐºÐ¾ÑÑÐ¾ÑÐ½Ð¾Ð³Ð¾ ÑÐºÐ¾Ð½Ð¾Ð¼Ð¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¾Ð³Ð¾ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ. Ð Ð°Ð±Ð¾ÑÐ° Ð²ÑÐ¿Ð¾Ð»Ð½ÑÐ»Ð°ÑÑ Ð½Ð° Ð¼Ð°ÑÐµÑÐ¸Ð°Ð»Ð°Ñ, Ð¿Ð¾Ð»ÑÑÐµÐ½Ð½ÑÑ Ð² ÑÐ¾Ð´Ðµ Ð¿ÑÐ¾ÑÐ¾Ð¶Ð´ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ Ð¿ÑÐµÐ´Ð´Ð¸Ð¿Ð»Ð¾Ð¼Ð½Ð¾Ð¹ Ð¿ÑÐ°ÐºÑÐ¸ÐºÐ¸ Ð² ÐºÐ¾Ð¼Ð¿Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ð¸ ÑÐ¾Ð·Ð½Ð¸ÑÐ½Ð¾Ð¹ ÑÐ¾ÑÐ³Ð¾Ð²Ð¾Ð¹ ÑÐµÑÐ¸ Â«Ð¡ÐµÐ¼ÑÑÂ». ÐÑÐ¿Ð¾Ð»ÑÐ·Ð¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð½ÑÐµ Ð¼ÐµÑÐ¾Ð´Ñ: ÑÑÐ°Ð²Ð½Ð¸ÑÐµÐ»ÑÐ½ÑÐ¹ Ð°Ð½Ð°Ð»Ð¸Ð·, Ð¼Ð°ÑÐµÐ¼Ð°ÑÐ¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¾Ðµ Ð¼Ð¾Ð´ÐµÐ»Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ðµ, ÑÐµÑÐ½Ð¸ÐºÐ¾-ÑÐºÐ¾Ð½Ð¾Ð¼Ð¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¸Ð¹ Ð°Ð½Ð°Ð»Ð¸Ð· Ð¿ÑÐµÐ´Ð¿ÑÐ¸ÑÑÐ¸Ñ, Ð°Ð½Ð°Ð»Ð¸Ð· Ð±Ð¸Ð·Ð½ÐµÑ-Ð¿ÑÐ¾ÑÐµÑÑÐ¾Ð² Ð¿ÑÐµÐ´Ð¿ÑÐ¸ÑÑÐ¸Ñ. ÐÑÐ½Ð¾Ð²Ð½ÑÐµ ÑÐµÐ·ÑÐ»ÑÑÐ°ÑÑ ÐÐÐ : - Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð²ÐµÐ´ÐµÐ½ ÑÑÐ°Ð²Ð½Ð¸ÑÐµÐ»ÑÐ½ÑÐ¹ Ð°Ð½Ð°Ð»Ð¸Ð· Ð¼ÐµÑÐ¾Ð´Ð¾Ð² Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ ÑÐ¿ÑÐ¾ÑÐ° Ð² ÑÐ¸ÑÐµÐ¹Ð»Ðµ; - Ð¿Ð¾Ð»ÑÑÐµÐ½Ñ ÑÐµÐ·ÑÐ»ÑÑÐ°ÑÑ Ð¸ÑÑÐ»ÐµÐ´Ð¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ ÑÐ¾Ð²ÑÐµÐ¼ÐµÐ½Ð½ÑÑ Ð¼Ð¾Ð´ÐµÐ»ÐµÐ¹ ÐºÑÐ°ÑÐºÐ¾ÑÑÐ¾ÑÐ½Ð¾Ð³Ð¾ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ Ð² Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ð¸ ÑÐ¿ÑÐ¾ÑÐ°; - Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð²ÐµÐ´ÐµÐ½ Ð°Ð½Ð°Ð»Ð¸Ð· Ð¢C Â«Ð¡ÐµÐ¼ÑÑÂ»; - Ð´Ð°Ð½Ñ ÑÐµÐºÐ¾Ð¼ÐµÐ½Ð´Ð°ÑÐ¸Ð¸ Ð¿Ð¾ ÑÐ°Ð·ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÐºÐµ ÑÐ¸ÑÑÐµÐ¼Ñ ÐºÑÐ°ÑÐºÐ¾ÑÑÐ¾ÑÐ½Ð¾Ð³Ð¾ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ Ð² Ð¢C Â«Ð¡ÐµÐ¼ÑÑÂ».
description: The aim of the graduate qualification work is to investigate in practice the properties of the new forecasting model ReCARE (p, g) and determine its place in the system of short-term retail forecasting. Tasks of the graduate qualification work: - study of modern methods of short-term economic forecasting and trends in the development of forecasting methodology; - study of the main problems of the functioning of the retail system in Russia; - conducting a comparative analysis of the accuracy of three methods of short-term economic forecasting: the method of exponential smoothing, autoregressive and complex autoregressive, on the statistical data of TD "Semya"; - survey of IS TD "Semya" and outlined ways of integrating the subsystem of short-term economic forecasting into it. The graduate qualification work was carried out on the materials obtained in the course of undergraduate practice in the company, the retail trade network "Semya". Methods: information search, comparative analysis, mathematical modeling, technical and economic analysis of the enterprise, analysis of the business processes of the enterprise. The main results of the graduate qualification work: - analysis of methods for forecasting demand in retail; - the results of the study of modern models of short-term forecasting in forecasting demand were obtained; - analysis of the TN " Semya " was carried out; - recommendations are given for the development of a short-term forecasting system in the TN "Semya".