title: Ð Ð°Ð·ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÐºÐ° Ð¼Ð¾Ð´ÐµÐ»Ð¸ Ð¾ÑÐµÐ½ÐºÐ¸ ÑÐ°Ð²Ð½Ð¾Ð²ÐµÑÐ½Ð¾Ð³Ð¾ ÐºÑÑÑÐ° ÑÐ¾ÑÑÐ¸Ð¹ÑÐºÐ¾Ð³Ð¾ ÑÑÐ±Ð»Ñ
title: Ð²ÑÐ¿ÑÑÐºÐ½Ð°Ñ ÐºÐ²Ð°Ð»Ð¸ÑÐ¸ÐºÐ°ÑÐ¸Ð¾Ð½Ð½Ð°Ñ ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÐ° Ð¼Ð°Ð³Ð¸ÑÑÑÐ°
titleType: Subtitle
title: Development of a model for estimating the equilibrium exchange rate of the Russian ruble
Creators: name: ÐÐ½Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð², ÐÐ½Ð´ÑÐµÐ¹
Publisher: name: Ð¡Ð°Ð½ÐºÑ-ÐÐµÑÐµÑÐ±ÑÑÐ³ÑÐºÐ¸Ð¹ Ð¿Ð¾Ð»Ð¸ÑÐµÑÐ½Ð¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¸Ð¹ ÑÐ½Ð¸Ð²ÐµÑÑÐ¸ÑÐµÑ ÐÐµÑÑÐ° ÐÐµÐ»Ð¸ÐºÐ¾Ð³Ð¾
Year: 2020
Subjects: Ð²Ð°Ð»ÑÑÐ½ÑÐ¹ ÐºÑÑÑ
Ð¿Ð°ÑÐ¸ÑÐµÑ Ð¿Ð¾ÐºÑÐ¿Ð°ÑÐµÐ»ÑÐ½Ð¾Ð¹ ÑÐ¿Ð¾ÑÐ¾Ð±Ð½Ð¾ÑÑÐ¸
ÑÐ°ÐºÑÐ¾ÑÑ ÑÐ¾ÑÐ¼Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ Ð²Ð°Ð»ÑÑÐ½Ð¾Ð³Ð¾ ÐºÑÑÑÐ°
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Ð²Ð°Ð»ÑÑÐ½ÑÐ¹ ÑÐµÐ¶Ð¸Ð¼
ÐºÐ¾Ð»Ð¸ÑÐµÑÑÐ²ÐµÐ½Ð½Ð°Ñ ÑÐµÐ¾ÑÐ¸Ñ Ð´ÐµÐ½ÐµÐ³
Ð¼Ð¾Ð´ÐµÐ»Ñ ÑÐ°Ð²Ð½Ð¾Ð²ÐµÑÐ½Ð¾Ð³Ð¾ ÐºÑÑÑÐ°
Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ðµ Ð²Ð°Ð»ÑÑÐ½Ð¾Ð³Ð¾ ÐºÑÑÑÐ°
exchange rate
purchasing power parity
exchange rate formation factors
currency market instruments
currency regime
quantitative theory of money
equilibrium exchange rate model
exchange rate forecasting

description: ÐÐ°Ð½Ð½Ð°Ñ ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÐ° Ð¿Ð¾ÑÐ²ÑÑÐµÐ½Ð° Ð¸ÑÑÐ»ÐµÐ´Ð¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ Ð²Ð¾Ð¿ÑÐ¾ÑÐ¾Ð² ÑÐ¾ÑÐ¼Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ ÑÐ°Ð²Ð½Ð¾Ð²ÐµÑÐ½Ð¾Ð³Ð¾ Ð²Ð°Ð»ÑÑÐ½Ð¾Ð³Ð¾ ÐºÑÑÑÐ° Ð² ÑÐºÐ¾Ð½Ð¾Ð¼Ð¸ÐºÐµ Ð¸ ÑÐ°Ð·ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÐºÐµ Ð¼Ð¾Ð´ÐµÐ»Ð¸ ÑÐ°Ð²Ð½Ð¾Ð²ÐµÑÐ½Ð¾Ð³Ð¾ ÐºÑÑÑÐ° ÑÐ¾ÑÑÐ¸Ð¹ÑÐºÐ¾Ð³Ð¾ ÑÑÐ±Ð»Ñ.
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description: This work is devoted to the study of the formation of an equilibrium exchange rate in the economy and the development of a model of the equilibrium exchange rate of the Russian ruble.
Tasks that were solved during the research:
1. Study of the theoretical and methodological foundations of the exchange rate formation and methods of its econometric modeling.
2. Ðnalysis of macroeconomic statistics in order to identify significant factors in the formation of the exchange rate.
3. The construction of the model the equilibrium rate, the evaluation of its effectiveness and possible use in forecasting.
Based on graphical and correlation analyses of the relationship between the ruble exchange rate and fundamental macroeconomic indicators, an equilibrium exchange rate model was constructed. The main method for constructing the model was correlation and regression analysis, as well as its modification â the decomposition of the model into thematic blocks of indicators. Subsequently, the effectiveness of two models was evaluated.
As a result, regression equations were derived that assess the impact of various factors (such as purchasing power parity, oil price, interest rates, stock indexes, etc.). Then, the accuracy of the obtained models and their suitability for macroeconomic forecasting were evaluated.