title: Rethinking reserve power systems using meteorological data
Creators: name: Fallon, James Colm
Publisher: name: University of Reading
Year: 2024

description: Critical infrastructure, such as telecommunications networks and hospitals, are typically required to have reserve power systems in place, mitigating power transmission failures. Energy
consumption is often highly sensitive to weather conditions and seasonal variation. This thesis
demonstrates how weather and climate information can support the efficient design and operation of reserve power systems, and the potential leverage of “surplus” reserve capacity to
support the wider electricity network.
First, the weather sensitivity of infrastructure electricity load is characterised for a case study
of GB telecommunications assets, with energy consumption well characterised in terms of
Heating Degree Day and Cooling Degree Day demand. Having established a temperature-driven model of infrastructure electricity load, a framework for risk-sensitive system design is
applied to re-analysis records of temperature to assess the weather and climate resilient design
levels for reserve capacity. For GB-aggregate telecommunications assets, the summer peak in
energy demand determines the reserve capacity installation requirement, whilst lower levels
of energy consumption outside this period result in surplus capacity beyond what is required
to maintain operations for the same length of time. This surplus capacity has the capability to
support the wider grid during periods of stress.
In a second research chapter, the impact of a changing physical climate on the design and
operation of reserve systems is assessed using data from the UK Climate Projections datasets. Focussing on the GB-aggregate telecommunications case study, an application of the
Quantile Delta Mapping bias adjustment on climate models improves estimates of long-term
variability and climate impact to modelled infrastructure electricity load. With this approach,
simulation of climate-risk in models better represents regional internal variability than the
limited sample of re-analysis observations, and using future projections shows that further increases to installed capacity are necessary to maintain the tolerated level of risk in reserve
systems.
Lastly, introducing models of GB national electricity generation capacity and demand alongside the models of infrastructure electricity load, the potential value of surplus capacity is
estimated from the perspective of both the wider grid and the asset owner. Using surplus
capacity to support the grid presents a win-win situation, with the Transmission System Operator able to benefit from low-cost capacity to improve system adequacy, and the reserve owner
benefiting from new revenue streams for the services provided.
This thesis addresses rethinking the purpose of reserve power systems (currently used or
planned) to protect infrastructure. Design decisions can be supported using re-analysis and
climate model datasets in a framework for efficient decision-making that represents the underlying weather- and climate-risk. Whilst results relate to the specific case study of GB telecommunications assets, qualitatively similar behaviours are expected in other infrastructure
with large backup requirements, including hospitals and data centres (the latter representing
a rapidly growing global share of energy consumption), making this research more widely
relevant.
With investment into battery energy storage already approaching a break-even point, dual purpose ‘surplus’ reserves could simultaneously benefit reserve owners (by offsetting the cost of
reserve systems through new revenue streams) and can support the energy sector transition to
highly-renewable energy supply by providing balancing services to the grid. Beyond the immediate scope of this research, these findings demonstrate the utility of weather and climate
information in decision-making.