title: Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis of Multiphysics Environments for Application in Pressurized Water Reactor Design
Creators: name: Blakely, Cole David
Publisher: name: Utah State University
Year: 2018

description: The most common design among U.S. nuclear power plants is the pressurized water reactor (PWR). The three primary design disciplines of these plants are system analysis (which includes thermal hydraulics), neutronics, and fuel performance. The nuclear industry has developed a variety of codes over the course of forty years, each with an emphasis within a specific discipline. Perhaps the greatest difficulty in mathematically modeling a nuclear reactor, is choosing which specific phenomena need to be modeled, and to what detail.
A multiphysics computational environment provides a means of advancing simulations of nuclear plants. Put simply, users are able to combine various physical models which have commonly been treated as separate in the past. The focus of this work is a specific multiphysics environment currently under development at Idaho National Labs known as the LOCA Toolkit for US light water reactors (LOTUS).
The ability of LOTUS to use uncertainty quantification (UQ) and sensitivity analysis (SA) tools within a multihphysics environment allow for a number of unique analyses which to the best of our knowledge, have yet to be performed. These include the first known integration of the neutronics and thermal hydraulic code VERA-CS currently under development by CASL, with the well-established fuel performance code FRAPCON by PNWL. The integration was used to model a fuel depletion case.
The outputs of interest for this integration were the minimum departure from nucleate boiling ratio (MDNBR) (a thermal hydraulic parameter indicating how close a heat flux is to causing a dangerous form of boiling in which an insulating layer of coolant vapour is formed), the maximum fuel centerline temperature (MFCT) of the uranium rod, and the gap conductance at peak power (GCPP). GCPP refers to the thermal conductance of the gas filled gap between fuel and cladding at the axial location with the highest local power generation.
UQ and SA were performed on MDNBR, MFCT, and GCPP at a variety of times throughout the fuel depletion. Results showed the MDNBR to behave linearly and consistently throughout the depletion, with the most impactful input uncertainties being coolant outlet pressure and inlet temperature as well as core power. MFCT also behaves linearly, but with a shift in SA measures. Initially MFCT is sensitive to fuel thermal conductivity and gap dimensions. However, later in the fuel cycle, nearly all uncertainty stems from fuel thermal conductivity, with minor contributions coming from core power and initial fuel density. GCPP uncertainty exhibits nonlinear, time-dependent behaviour which requires higher order SA measures to properly analyze. GCPP begins with a dependence on gap dimensions, but in later states, shifts to a dependence on the biases of a variety of specific calculation such as fuel swelling and cladding creep and oxidation.
LOTUS was also used to perform the first higher order SA of an integration of VERA-CS and the BISON fuel performance code currently under development at INL. The same problem and outputs were studied as the VERA-CS and FRAPCON integration. Results for MDNBR and MFCT were relatively consistent. GCPP results contained notable differences, specifically a large dependence on fuel and clad surface roughness in later states. However, this difference is due to the surface roughness not being perturbed in the first integration. SA of later states also showed an increased sensitivity to fission gas release coefficients.
Lastly a Loss of Coolant Accident was investigated with an integration of FRAPCON with the INL neutronics code PHISICS and system analysis code RELAP5-3D. The outputs of interest were ratios of the peak cladding temperatures (highest temperature encountered by cladding during LOCA) and equivalent cladding reacted (the percentage of cladding oxidized) to their cladding hydrogen content-based limits. This work contains the first known UQ of these ratios within the aforementioned integration. Results showed the PCT ratio to be relatively well behaved. The ECR ratio behaves as a threshold variable, which is to say it abruptly shifts to radically higher values under specific conditions. This threshold behaviour establishes the importance of performing UQ so as to see the full spectrum of possible values for an output of interest.
The SA capabilities of LOTUS provide a path forward for developers to increase code fidelity for specific outputs. Performing UQ within a multiphysics environment may provide improved estimates of safety metrics in nuclear reactors. These improved estimates may allow plants to operate at higher power, thereby increasing profits. Lastly, LOTUS will be of particular use in the development of newly proposed nuclear fuel designs.