title: ÐÐ¾Ð´ÐµÐ»Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ðµ Ð²Ð»Ð¸ÑÐ½Ð¸Ñ Ð¼ÐµÐ¶Ð´ÑÐ½Ð°ÑÐ¾Ð´Ð½Ð¾Ð¹ Ð²Ð°Ð»ÑÑÐ½Ð¾-ÑÐ¸Ð½Ð°Ð½ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð¾Ð¹ ÑÐ¸ÑÑÐµÐ¼Ñ Ð½Ð° ÐºÑÑÑ Ð½Ð°ÑÐ¸Ð¾Ð½Ð°Ð»ÑÐ½Ð¾Ð¹ Ð²Ð°Ð»ÑÑÑ ÑÑÑÐ°Ð½
title: Ð²ÑÐ¿ÑÑÐºÐ½Ð°Ñ ÐºÐ²Ð°Ð»Ð¸ÑÐ¸ÐºÐ°ÑÐ¸Ð¾Ð½Ð½Ð°Ñ ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÐ° Ð¼Ð°Ð³Ð¸ÑÑÑÐ°
titleType: Subtitle
title: Modeling the influence of the international monetary and financial system on the exchange rate of the national currency of the countries
Creators: name: ÐÐ°Ð·Ð¸Ð·Ð¾Ð², ÐÐ½ÑÐ¾Ð½
Publisher: name: Ð¡Ð°Ð½ÐºÑ-ÐÐµÑÐµÑÐ±ÑÑÐ³ÑÐºÐ¸Ð¹ Ð¿Ð¾Ð»Ð¸ÑÐµÑÐ½Ð¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¸Ð¹ ÑÐ½Ð¸Ð²ÐµÑÑÐ¸ÑÐµÑ ÐÐµÑÑÐ° ÐÐµÐ»Ð¸ÐºÐ¾Ð³Ð¾
Year: 2024
Subjects: Ð½Ð°ÑÐ¸Ð¾Ð½Ð°Ð»ÑÐ½Ð°Ñ Ð²Ð°Ð»ÑÑÐ°
ÑÐºÐ¾Ð½Ð¾Ð¼ÐµÑÑÐ¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¾Ðµ Ð¼Ð¾Ð´ÐµÐ»Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ðµ
Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ðµ ÐºÑÑÑÐ° Ð²Ð°Ð»ÑÑ
national currency
econometric modeling
currency exchange rate forecasting

description: ÐÐ°Ð½Ð½Ð°Ñ ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÐ° Ð¿Ð¾ÑÐ²ÑÑÐµÐ½Ð° Ð°Ð½Ð°Ð»Ð¸Ð·Ñ Ð²Ð»Ð¸ÑÐ½Ð¸Ñ Ð·Ð°Ð²Ð¸ÑÐ¸Ð¼Ð¾ÑÑÐ¸ Ð¼ÐµÐ¶Ð´ÑÐ½Ð°ÑÐ¾Ð´Ð½Ð¾Ð¹ Ð²Ð°Ð»ÑÑÐ½Ð¾-ÑÐ¸Ð½Ð°Ð½ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð¾Ð¹ ÑÐ¸ÑÑÐµÐ¼Ñ Ð½Ð° ÐºÑÑÑ Ð½Ð°ÑÐ¸Ð¾Ð½Ð°Ð»ÑÐ½Ð¾Ð¹ Ð²Ð°Ð»ÑÑÑ, Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ Ð²Ð°Ð»ÑÑÑ Ð½Ð° ÑÑÐ¸ Ð¼ÐµÑÑÑÐ° Ð²Ð¿ÐµÑÑÐ´. Ð ÑÐ¾Ð´Ðµ Ð²ÑÐ¿Ð¾Ð»Ð½ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÑ ÑÐµÑÐ°Ð»Ð¸ÑÑ ÑÐ»ÐµÐ´ÑÑÑÐ¸Ðµ Ð·Ð°Ð´Ð°ÑÐ¸: 1. ÐÑÐ¾Ð²ÐµÐ´ÐµÐ½ Ð°Ð½Ð°Ð»Ð¸Ð· ÑÑÑÐµÑÑÐ²ÑÑÑÐ¸Ñ Ð¼Ð°ÑÐµÑÐ¸Ð°Ð»Ð¾Ð², ÑÐ°ÑÑÐ¼Ð°ÑÑÐ¸Ð²Ð°ÑÑÐ¸Ñ Ð¼Ð°ÐºÑÐ¾Ð¿Ð¾ÐºÐ°Ð·Ð°ÑÐµÐ»Ð¸, Ð¸Ð¼ÐµÑÑÐ¸Ðµ Ð²Ð»Ð¸ÑÐ½Ð¸Ðµ Ð½Ð° Ð½Ð°ÑÐ¸Ð¾Ð½Ð°Ð»ÑÐ½ÑÑ Ð²Ð°Ð»ÑÑÑ; 2. ÐÑÐ¾Ð²ÐµÐ´ÐµÐ½ Ð°Ð½Ð°Ð»Ð¸Ð· ÑÑÑÐµÑÑÐ²ÑÑÑÐ¸Ñ Ð¼Ð°ÑÐµÑÐ¸Ð°Ð»Ð¾Ð², ÑÐ°ÑÑÐ¼Ð°ÑÑÐ¸Ð²Ð°ÑÑÐ¸Ñ Ð¼ÐµÑÐ¾Ð´Ñ Ð¸ÑÐ¿Ð¾Ð»ÑÐ·ÑÑÑÐ¸ÐµÑÑ Ð´Ð»Ñ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ ÐºÑÑÑÐ° Ð²Ð°Ð»ÑÑ; 3. ÐÑÐ±Ð¾Ñ Ð¼ÐµÑÐ¾Ð´Ð¾Ð² Ð´Ð»Ñ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ ÐºÑÑÑÐ° Ð²Ð°Ð»ÑÑ; 4. Ð­ÐºÐ¾Ð½Ð¾Ð¼ÐµÑÑÐ¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¾Ðµ Ð¼Ð¾Ð´ÐµÐ»Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ðµ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ ÐºÑÑÑÐ° Ð²Ð°Ð»ÑÑ Ñ Ð¿Ð¾Ð¼Ð¾ÑÑÑ Ð°Ð²ÑÐ¾Ð¼Ð°ÑÐ¸Ð·Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð½ÑÑ ÑÑÐµÐ´ÑÑÐ² Python; 5. ÐÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ðµ Ð²Ð°Ð»ÑÑÐ½Ð¾Ð³Ð¾ ÐºÑÑÑÐ° Ñ Ð¸ÑÐ¿Ð¾Ð»ÑÐ·Ð¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸ÐµÐ¼ Ð¼ÐµÑÐ¾Ð´Ð° Ð¼Ð°ÑÐ¸Ð½Ð½Ð¾Ð³Ð¾ Ð¾Ð±ÑÑÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ Ñ Ð¿Ð¾Ð¼Ð¾ÑÑÑ Ð°Ð²ÑÐ¾Ð¼Ð°ÑÐ¸Ð·Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð½ÑÑ ÑÑÐµÐ´ÑÑÐ² Python; 6. Ð¡ÑÐ°Ð²Ð½Ð¸ÑÐµÐ»ÑÐ½ÑÐ¹ Ð°Ð½Ð°Ð»Ð¸Ð· ÑÐµÐ·ÑÐ»ÑÑÐ°ÑÐ¾Ð² Ð¸ÑÐ¿Ð¾Ð»ÑÐ·ÑÐµÐ¼ÑÑ Ð¼ÐµÑÐ¾Ð´Ð¾Ð² Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ. ÐÐºÑÑÐ°Ð»ÑÐ½Ð¾ÑÑÑ ÑÐµÐ¼Ñ Ð¾Ð±ÑÑÐ»Ð¾Ð²Ð»ÐµÐ½Ð° Ð½ÐµÐ¾Ð±ÑÐ¾Ð´Ð¸Ð¼Ð¾ÑÑÑÑ ÑÐ°ÑÑÑÑÐ° Ð±ÑÐ´ÑÑÐµÐ³Ð¾ ÐºÑÑÑÐ° Ð²Ð°Ð»ÑÑ Ð¸ Ð²ÑÑÐ²Ð»ÐµÐ½Ð¸ÐµÐ¼ Ð¼Ð°ÐºÑÐ¾Ð¿Ð¾ÐºÐ°Ð·Ð°ÑÐµÐ»ÐµÐ¹, ÐºÐ¾ÑÐ¾ÑÑÐµ Ð² Ð±Ð¾Ð»ÑÑÐµÐ¹ ÑÑÐµÐ¿ÐµÐ½Ð¸ Ð¼Ð¾Ð³ÑÑ Ð¿Ð¾Ð²Ð»Ð¸ÑÑÑ Ð½Ð° Ð½Ð°ÑÐ¸Ð¾Ð½Ð°Ð»ÑÐ½ÑÑ Ð²Ð°Ð»ÑÑÑ. ÐÑÑÐ¾ÑÐ½Ð¸ÐºÐ°Ð¼Ð¸ Ð¸Ð½ÑÐ¾ÑÐ¼Ð°ÑÐ¸Ð¸ Ð²ÑÑÑÑÐ¿Ð¸Ð»Ð¸ Ð´Ð°Ð½Ð½ÑÐµ Ð¿Ð¾ ÑÐµÐ¼Ð¸ ÑÑÑÐ°Ð½Ð°Ð¼ Ð±Ð¾Ð»ÑÑÐ¾Ð¹ Ð´Ð²Ð°Ð´ÑÐ°ÑÐºÐ¸.
description: This work is devoted to the analysis of the influence of the dependence of the international monetary and financial system on the exchange rate of the national currency, forecasting the currency for three months ahead. In the course of the work, the following tasks were solved: 1. The analysis of existing materials considering macro indicators that have an impact on the national currency is carried out; 2. The analysis of existing materials considering the methods used to predict the exchange rate is carried out; 3. The choice of methods for forecasting the exchange rate; 4. Econometric modeling of currency exchange rate forecasting using automated tools Python; 5. Forecasting the exchange rate using the machine learning method using automated tools Python; 6. Comparative analysis of the results of the forecasting methods used. The relevance of the topic is due to the need to calculate the future exchange rate and identify macro indicators that can have a greater impact on the national currency. The sources of information were data from seven G20 countries.