The conservation impacts of ecological disturbance: Time-bound estimates of population loss and recovery for fauna affected by the 2019–2020 Australian megafires
Creators: name: Legge, S
name: Rumpff, L
name: Woinarski, JCZ
name: Whiterod, NS
name: Ward, M
name: Southwell, DG
name: Scheele, BC
name: Nimmo, DG
name: Lintermans, M
name: Geyle, HM
name: Garnett, ST
name: Hayward-Brown, B
name: Ensbey, M
name: Ehmke, G
name: Ahyong, ST
name: Blackmore, CJ
name: Bower, DS
name: Brizuela-Torres, D
name: Burbidge, AH
name: Burns, PA
name: Butler, G
name: Catullo, R
name: Chapple, DG
name: Dickman, CR
name: Doyle, KE
name: Ferris, J
name: Fisher, D
name: Gallagher, R
name: Gillespie, GR
name: Greenlees, MJ
name: Hohnen, R
name: Hoskin, CJ
name: Hunter, D
name: Jolly, C
name: Kennard, M
name: King, Alison
name: Kuchinke, D
name: Law, B
name: Lawler, I
name: Lawler, Susan
name: Loyn, Richard
name: Lunney, D
name: Lyon, J
name: MacHunter, J
name: Mahony, M
name: Mahony, S
name: McCormack, RB
name: Melville, J
name: Menkhorst, Peter
name: Michael, D
name: Mitchell, N
name: Mulder, E
name: Newell, D
name: Pearce, L
name: Raadik, TA
name: Rowley, JJL
name: Sitters, H
name: Spencer, R
name: Valavi, R
name: West, M
name: Wilkinson, DP
name: Zukowski, S
Publisher: name: La Trobe
Year: 2023
Subjects: classificationCode: 410102
subject: Ecological impacts of climate change and ecological adaptation
classificationCode: 410299
subject: Ecological applications not elsewhere classified
classificationCode: 4104
subject: Environmental management
classificationCode: 410404
subject: Environmental management

description: Aim: After environmental disasters, species with large population losses may need urgent protection to prevent extinction and support recovery. Following the 2019–2020 Australian megafires, we estimated population losses and recovery in fire-affected fauna, to inform conservation status assessments and management. Location: Temperate and subtropical Australia. Time period: 2019–2030 and beyond. Major taxa: Australian terrestrial and freshwater vertebrates; one invertebrate group. Methods: From &gt; 1,050 fire-affected taxa, we selected 173 whose distributions substantially overlapped the fire extent. We estimated the proportion of each taxon’s distribution affected by fires, using fire severity and aquatic impact mapping, and new distribution mapping. Using expert elicitation informed by evidence of responses to previous wildfires, we estimated local population responses to fires of varying severity. We combined the spatial and elicitation data to estimate overall population loss and recovery trajectories, and thus indicate potential eligibility for listing as threatened, or uplisting, under Australian legislation. Results: We estimate that the 2019–2020 Australian megafires caused, or contributed to, population declines that make 70–82 taxa eligible for listing as threatened; and another 21–27 taxa eligible for uplisting. If so-listed, this represents a 22–26% increase in Australian statutory lists of threatened terrestrial and freshwater vertebrates and spiny crayfish, and uplisting for 8–10% of threatened taxa. Such changes would cause an abrupt worsening of underlying trajectories in vertebrates, as measured by Red List Indices. We predict that 54–88% of 173 assessed taxa will not recover to pre-fire population size within 10 years/three generations. Main conclusions: We suggest the 2019–2020 Australian megafires have worsened the conservation prospects for many species. Of the 91 taxa recommended for listing/uplisting consideration, 84 are now under formal review through national processes. Improving predictions about taxon vulnerability with empirical data on population responses, reducing the likelihood of future catastrophic events and mitigating their impacts on biodiversity, are critical.