title: ÐÑÐ°ÑÐºÐ¾ÑÑÐ¾ÑÐ½Ð¾Ðµ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ðµ ÑÐ¿ÑÐ¾ÑÐ° Ð½Ð° Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð´ÑÐºÑÑ Ð¸Ð½ÑÐµÑÐ½ÐµÑ-Ð±Ð°Ð½ÐºÐ¸Ð½Ð³Ð° Ñ Ð¿Ð¾Ð¼Ð¾ÑÑÑ Ð²ÐµÐºÑÐ¾ÑÐ½ÑÑ Ð°Ð²ÑÐ¾ÑÐµÐ³ÑÐµÑÑÐ¸Ð¹
title: Ð²ÑÐ¿ÑÑÐºÐ½Ð°Ñ ÐºÐ²Ð°Ð»Ð¸ÑÐ¸ÐºÐ°ÑÐ¸Ð¾Ð½Ð½Ð°Ñ ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÐ° Ð¼Ð°Ð³Ð¸ÑÑÑÐ°
titleType: Subtitle
title: Short-term forecasting of demand for internet banking products using vector autoregressions
Creators: name: ÐÐ¸ÑÐµÐ»ÑÐ²Ð°, Ð®Ð»Ð¸Ñ
Publisher: name: Ð¡Ð°Ð½ÐºÑ-ÐÐµÑÐµÑÐ±ÑÑÐ³ÑÐºÐ¸Ð¹ Ð¿Ð¾Ð»Ð¸ÑÐµÑÐ½Ð¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¸Ð¹ ÑÐ½Ð¸Ð²ÐµÑÑÐ¸ÑÐµÑ ÐÐµÑÑÐ° ÐÐµÐ»Ð¸ÐºÐ¾Ð³Ð¾
Year: 2024
Subjects: ÐºÑÐ°ÑÐºÐ¾ÑÑÐ¾ÑÐ½Ð¾Ðµ ÑÐºÐ¾Ð½Ð¾Ð¼Ð¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¾Ðµ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ðµ
Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ðµ ÑÐ¿ÑÐ¾ÑÐ°
Ð²ÐµÐºÑÐ¾ÑÐ½ÑÐµ Ð°Ð²ÑÐ¾ÑÐµÐ³ÑÐµÑÑÐ¸Ð¸
ÑÐ¸ÑÑÐ¾Ð²Ð¾Ð¹ Ð¼Ð°ÑÐºÐµÑÐ¸Ð½Ð³
Ð¸Ð½ÑÐµÑÐ½ÐµÑ-Ð±Ð°Ð½Ðº
short-term economic forecasting
demand forecasting
autoregressive vectors
digital marketing
online banking

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description: The purpose of the research is literature analysis and development of a model for short-term economic forecasting of demand for Internet banking products on the example of one of the largest banks in Russia. The research was carried out on the basis of domestic and foreign research literature, official Internet resources and analytical tools. The subject of the thesis short-term forecasting of demand for Internet banking products using vector autoregressions. Research methods: â Theoretical: study of literature on the problem under study, search and systematization of information, data analysis. â Empirical: data processing, mathematical modeling, comparative analysis, mathematical calculations. The main results of the study: â consumer demand forecasting methods used in digital marketing are studied; â performed a comparative analysis of forecasting methods; â the evolution of existing forecasting methods was considered; â collected data on users transactional activity from two channels: an online portal and a mobile application; â data set was defined, data samples for forecasting were compiled; â vector autoregression and exponential smoothing models were built;Â  â a short-term forecast of indicators for two periods was made using the models; â forecast accuracy was analyzed. The field of application of results: short-term forecasting contributes to the solution of management tasks both at the global level and at the level of individual organizations and households. It is a powerful tool for solving global economic, environmental and technical problems, as well as the problems of individual countries, regions, industries and enterprises. The scientific novelty is the presentation of the developed system of models, which can be applied by any company with due regard to industry specifics, which in turn opens up wide opportunities for researchers in the field of making accurate short-term forecasts. Conclusions. As a result of the work, the system of effective models of short-term forecasting was proposed, the hypothesis of failure of the model of large dimensionality on a limited sample was proved, the field of application of the results and scientific significance of the obtained conclusions were outlined.