Contributions to public policy debate using quantitative analysis: NSW environmental policy 1979-2010
Creators: name: Mamouney, Louisa Peace
Publisher: name: The Australian National University
Year: 2017
Subjects: environment
environmental policy
New South Wales
public policy
quantitative methods

description: In this thesis I build an understanding of environmental policy within the Australian state jurisdiction of New South Wales (NSW) between 1979 and 2010 using quantitative comparisons and other analyses. These analyses provide a distinct perspective on the development of environmental policy during a time of sustained environmental interest in the social and political spheres. Previous work on these topics has focused on qualitative inquiry, but I demonstrate that quantitative methods can provide a broader-scale evidentiary base within which to consider qualitative findings. My primary research objective is to explore how quantitative data on environmental policies can be used to understand practical and theoretical public policy issues. This includes change in policy effort over time, trends in the use of different types of policy instruments, and changes in the policy agenda and policy dynamics and factors important in policy success or failure. I obtained quantitative data on environmental policy easily, and showed its analysis contributes to practical and theoretical public policy issues. For example, the data showed a three-fold increase in policy making under Labor Governments post-1995 but a growing diversion between policy effort (as measured by number of policies made) and public opinion. This period saw no trend away from using regulation to deliver policy outcomes but a relative strengthening in the importance of strategies, education, incentives and schemes. The policy agenda early in the study period focused on general environment, coast, soils, rivers, forests and catchments, but later shifted to cover flora and fauna, pollution, climate change, waste, water quantity, wetlands and marine issues. There was a consistent lineage in the environmental agenda from the relatively similar Wran, Unsworth, Greiner and Fahey Governments, to the Carr and onto the Iemma Government covering 1979 and 2008. This ended under the Rees and Keneally governments (2008-10), with a markedly different environmental agenda. I looked for evidence of models of policy dynamics, and observed policy change following three established rational, incremental and punctuated equilibrium models in 18 of the 24 patterns observed. The other six patterns were characterised by energetic periods of policy change over long timeframes, not fitting established models. I propose an additional model of policy dynamics to explain these observations and a salience-wickedness matrix to relate the four models and as a conceptual tool for how policy dynamics can be influenced. This develops understanding of the fluid nature of policy dynamics rather than fixing on competing models. I also used quantitative analysis to examine the factors related to policy success. Between 1979 and 2010, 25 factors in the policy process were linked to policy success, 22 factors were not linked to policy success and another 22 factors were generally present. This work narrows the range of factors that might have a causal relationship with policy success, and although limited, could be used to further evaluate predictors of success, or inform policy design. I recognise the constraints of this work. Constraints relate to the assumptions used, simplification required in order to utilize quantitative methods and on the broader applicability of the research. Despite this caution, the work presents a basis for a deeper understanding of the practical reality for government, where intent mixes with political, social and economic constraints. It shows the considerable potential for a broader conception of policy research, exploring new ways to study and synthesise accessible information to enhance our knowledge of Australian public policy.