title: Costs of meeting international climate targets without nuclear power
title: Costs of meeting international climate targets without nuclear power
titleType: AlternativeTitle
Creators: name: Duscha, Vicki
name: Schumacher, Katja
name: Schleich, Joachim
Publisher: name: Umweltbundesamt
Year: 2015
Subjects: subject: Kyoto-Gase
subject: Kernenergie
subject: Kyoto gases
subject: Kopenhagen targets
subject: Post-Kyoto
subject: nuclear energy
subject: Klima | Energie
subject: Climate | Energy

description: In diesem Bericht werden die Auswirkungen eines globalen Ausstiegs aus der Kernenergie bis zum Jahr 2050 auf die Kosten zur Erreichung internationaler Klimaschutzziele für das Jahr 2020 analysiert. Die Analysen basieren auf Simulationen mit einem globalen Energiesystem-modell. Unsere Analysen zeigen ein Anstieg der globalen Treibhausgasemissionen im Jahr 2020 um 2%, in den Annex I-Ländern um 7% als Resultat des Atomausstiegs. Im Vergleich zum Refe-renzszenario steigen die Zertifikatpreise für Treibhausgasemissionen um 24%, die Erfüllungs-kosten der Annex I-Länder um 28% wenn freier Handel mit Zertifikaten zugelassen wird ("all-trade"-Szenario). Der größte Anstieg in den Erfüllungskosten ist in Japan (+58%) und der USA (+28%) zu beobachten. China, Indien und Rußland dagegen profitieren von einem globalen Atomausstieg, wobei der Anstieg der Gewinne durch höhere Zertifikathandelsvolumina den Anstieg der Vermeidungskosten durch den Wegfall von Atomenergie übersteigt. Auch für Län-der wie Japan, für die ein relativ großer Anstieg der Erfüllungskosten durch den Atomausstieg zu beobachten ist, sind die ökonomischen Auswirkungen begrenzt. Bei einer Einschränkung des Zertifikathandels auf die Länder, die sich an der 2. Verpflichtungsperiode des Kyoto Proto-kolls beteiligen, führt der globale Atomausstieg zu einem deutlich höheren Anstieg der Erfül-lungskosten in den Annex I-Ländern (dies gilt jedoch nicht für die EU und Australien) im Ver-gleich zu einem Szenario mit uneingeschränktem Zertifikathandel. Quelle: Forschungsbericht
description: This paper assesses the impact of a global phase-out of nuclear energy by 2050 on the costs of meeting international climate policy targets for 2020. The analyses are based on simulations with a global energy systems model. The phase-out of nuclear power increases greenhouse gas emissions by 2% globally, and 7% for Annex I countries. Compared to a reference scenario, the price of certificates increases by 24% and total compliance costs of Annex I countries rise by 28%, if trading of emissions certificates is not restricted (all trade scenario) in an international climate policy regime. Compliance costs increase the most for Japan (+58%) and the USA (+28%). China, India and Russia benefit from a global nuclear phase-out because revenues from higher trading volumes of certificates outweigh the costs of losing nuclear power as a mitiga-tion option. Even for countries that face a relatively large increase in compliance costs, such as Japan, the nuclear phase-out implies a relatively small overall economic burden. When trading of certificates is available only to countries that committed to a second Kyoto period, the nu-clear phase-out results in a larger increase in the compliance costs for the group of Annex I countries (but not for the EU and Australia) than in the all trade scenario. Quelle: Forschungsbericht
description: This report assesses the impact of a global phase-out of nuclear energy by 2050 on the costs of meeting international climate policy targets in 2020. The analyses are based on simulations of a reference scenario and a nuclear phase out scenario with the global energy systems model POLES. The phase-out of nuclear power decreases the global share of nuclear energy from 12 % to 8 % and increases greenhouse gas emissions by 2% globally. In Annex I countries GHG emissions rise by 7 %, emissions in the EU decrease slightly by less than 1 %. Two policy scenarios – an Annex I “all trade” scenario and a “KP 2 Parties only” scenario – have been modelled and show the following results: Compared to a reference scenario, the price of certificates increases by 24% and total compliance costs of Annex I countries rise by 28%, if trading of emissions certificates is not restricted (all trade scenario) in an international climate policy regime. Compliance costs increase the most for Japan (+58%) and the USA (+28%). In contrast, a restricted trading of emission certificates results in a lower demand and in lower certificate prices. When trading of certificates is available only to coun-tries that committed to a second Kyoto period, the nuclear phase-out results in a substantial increase of the compliance costs for the group of Annex I countries (but not for the EU and Australia) than in the all trade scenario. The analyses show a moderate increase of costs for more ambitions mitigation policies compared to BAU mitigation policies, in particular if a nuclear phase out is implemented. Finally, the findings also highlight the importance of certificate trading to achieving climate targets in a cost-efficient way, provided that ambitious greenhouse gas mitigation pursued.