SPATIOTEMPORAL ANALYSIS OF DROUGHT SEVERITY AND PRECIPITATION VARIABILITY IN PUNJAB'S POTHOHAR PLATEAU USING PDSI AND SPEI
Creators: name: MUHAMMAD SAFDAR
name: MUHAMMAD ADNAN SHAHID
name: SIKANDAR ALI
name: FAHD RASUL
Publisher: name: Zenodo
Year: 2024
Subjects: Drought Variability, Pothohar Plateau, SPEI (Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index), PDSI (Palmer Drought Severity Index), Agriculture, Water Resources, Climate Change, Drought Mitigation Strategies.

description: Abstract

The study investigates drought variability in the Pothohar Plateau region of Pakistan from 1983 to 2022, focusing on the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). The region, Pothohar Plateau Pothohar Zone lies from about 32.5˚N to 34.0˚N Latitude and from about 72˚E to 74˚E Longitude with area 22254 km2, with a total area of 4% irrigated and 96% rainfed agriculture. It includes Rawalpindi, Chakwal, Attock, and Jhelum, with a semiarid to, humid. The study examines drought patterns and impacts on Pakistan's Pothohar Plateau region, focusing on the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) from 1983 to 2022. The drought susceptibility map showed northern Rawalpindi and parts of Attock as highly susceptible, with Attock experiencing significant droughts including a mild drought in 1985-1986 (-1.147) and severe droughts from 1999-2000. Chakwal faced severe droughts in 1987-1988, 1999 (-1.504), and 2002 (-1.641), while Jhelum recorded severe droughts in 1999 (-1.488), 2002, and July 2012, highlighting increased drought frequency and variability across the Pothohar Plateau. Rawalpindi's SPEI12 data from 1980 to 2005 showed alternating wet and drought periods, with severe drought in 2000 (-1.436) and very wet conditions in 1983 (+1.982) and 2004 (+1.549), impacting agriculture and water resources. The PDSI data for Attock district from 1980 to 2022 showed significant variability, including drought from 1980 to 1983, severe drought in the early 2000s (PDSI below -3.0), and wet conditions in 2015-2016, with fluctuating conditions extending into the 2020s. Chakwal's PDSI data indicated severe drought in September 1985 (-3.063), with wet conditions peaking in December 1990 (4.3285) and October 2015 (6.3411), followed by a shift to drier conditions in August 2000 (-3.3574). Jhelum district experienced severe drought in 1985 (-3.4213) and a notable dry shift in 1999 (-2.605), with extreme fluctuations observed from 2000 to 2007, highlighting the region's drought sensitivity. Rawalpindi's PDSI data revealed extreme wet conditions in 1981, followed by severe drought from 1999 to 2001, with low values during this period, reflecting notable climatic extremes in the region. Overall, the PDSI data across all districts from 1980 to 2022 illustrated a pattern of alternating wet and dry conditions, emphasizing the need for effective drought management strategies to mitigate agricultural impacts. The study identified increasing drought frequency and severity in the Pothohar Plateau from 1983 to 2022, particularly affecting Chakwal and Attock districts, with significant implications for agriculture and water resources. It emphasized the need for effective drought mitigation strategies, including drought-resilient crops, improved water management, and community awareness programs, alongside ongoing research to address climate change impacts on drought patterns.