title: ÐÑÐ¾ÑÑÑÐ°Ð½ÑÑÐ²ÐµÐ½Ð½ÑÐ¹ Ð°Ð½Ð°Ð»Ð¸Ð· Ð¸ Ð¼Ð¾Ð´ÐµÐ»Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ðµ Ð´Ð¾ÑÐ¾Ð¶Ð½Ð¾-ÑÑÐ°Ð½ÑÐ¿Ð¾ÑÑÐ½ÑÑ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð¸ÑÑÐµÑÑÐ²Ð¸Ð¹ Ð¡Ð°Ð½ÐºÑ-ÐÐµÑÐµÑÐ±ÑÑÐ³Ð° Ð¸ ÐÐµÐ½Ð¸Ð½Ð³ÑÐ°Ð´ÑÐºÐ¾Ð¹ Ð¾Ð±Ð»Ð°ÑÑÐ¸
title: Ð²ÑÐ¿ÑÑÐºÐ½Ð°Ñ ÐºÐ²Ð°Ð»Ð¸ÑÐ¸ÐºÐ°ÑÐ¸Ð¾Ð½Ð½Ð°Ñ ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÐ° Ð¼Ð°Ð³Ð¸ÑÑÑÐ°
titleType: Subtitle
title: Spatial analysis and modeling of road accidents in St. Petersburg and the Leningrad region
Creators: name: Ð¡Ð°Ð²ÑÐµÐ½ÐºÐ¾, ÐÐ°ÑÐ°Ð»ÑÑ
Publisher: name: Ð¡Ð°Ð½ÐºÑ-ÐÐµÑÐµÑÐ±ÑÑÐ³ÑÐºÐ¸Ð¹ Ð¿Ð¾Ð»Ð¸ÑÐµÑÐ½Ð¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¸Ð¹ ÑÐ½Ð¸Ð²ÐµÑÑÐ¸ÑÐµÑ ÐÐµÑÑÐ° ÐÐµÐ»Ð¸ÐºÐ¾Ð³Ð¾
Year: 2024
Subjects: Ð´Ð¾ÑÐ¾Ð¶Ð½Ð¾-ÑÑÐ°Ð½ÑÐ¿Ð¾ÑÑÐ½Ð¾Ðµ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð¸ÑÑÐµÑÑÐ²Ð¸Ðµ
ÑÐºÐ¾Ð½Ð¾Ð¼ÐµÑÑÐ¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¾Ðµ Ð¼Ð¾Ð´ÐµÐ»Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ðµ
ÑÐ»ÑÑÐ°Ð¹Ð½ÑÐ¹ Ð»ÐµÑ
Ð¼Ð°ÑÐ¸Ð½Ð½Ð¾Ðµ Ð¾Ð±ÑÑÐµÐ½Ð¸Ðµ
Ð¼ÐµÑÑÐ¸ÐºÐ¸ ÐºÐ°ÑÐµÑÑÐ²Ð°
ÑÐ°ÐºÑÐ¾ÑÑ Ð²Ð»Ð¸ÑÐ½Ð¸Ñ
traffic accident
econometric modeling
random forest
machine learning
quality metrics
influence factors

description: ÐÐ°Ð½Ð½Ð°Ñ ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÐ° Ð¿Ð¾ÑÐ²ÑÑÐµÐ½Ð° Ð²ÑÑÐ²Ð»ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ, Ð°Ð½Ð°Ð»Ð¸Ð·Ñ Ð¸ Ð¼Ð¾Ð´ÐµÐ»Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ ÑÐ°ÐºÑÐ¾ÑÐ¾Ð², Ð²Ð»Ð¸ÑÑÑÐ¸Ñ Ð½Ð° ÑÑÐ¶ÐµÑÑÑ Ð´Ð¾ÑÐ¾Ð¶Ð½Ð¾-ÑÑÐ°Ð½ÑÐ¿Ð¾ÑÑÐ½ÑÑ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð¸ÑÑÐµÑÑÐ²Ð¸Ð¹, Ñ Ð¿Ð¾Ð¼Ð¾ÑÑÑ Ð¼ÐµÑÐ¾Ð´Ð¾Ð² Ð¼Ð°ÑÐ¸Ð½Ð½Ð¾Ð³Ð¾ Ð¾Ð±ÑÑÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ Ð¸ ÑÐºÐ¾Ð½Ð¾Ð¼ÐµÑÑÐ¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¾Ð³Ð¾ Ð¼Ð¾Ð´ÐµÐ»Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ. Ð¦ÐµÐ»ÑÑ Ð¸ÑÑÐ»ÐµÐ´Ð¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ ÑÐ²Ð»ÑÐµÑÑÑ Ð²ÑÑÐ²Ð»ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ðµ Ð½Ð°Ð¸Ð±Ð¾Ð»ÐµÐµ Ð·Ð½Ð°ÑÐ¸Ð¼ÑÑ ÑÐ°ÐºÑÐ¾ÑÐ¾Ð², Ð²Ð»Ð¸ÑÑÑÐ¸Ñ Ð½Ð° ÑÑÐ¶ÐµÑÑÑ ÐÐ¢Ð Ð¸ Ð¾Ð¿ÑÐµÐ´ÐµÐ»ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ðµ Ð½Ð°Ð¸Ð±Ð¾Ð»ÐµÐµ Ð¿Ð¾Ð´ÑÐ¾Ð´ÑÑÐµÐ³Ð¾ Ð¼ÐµÑÐ¾Ð´Ð° Ð°Ð½Ð°Ð»Ð¸Ð·Ð°. ÐÑÐ»Ð¸ ÑÐµÑÐµÐ½Ñ ÑÐ»ÐµÐ´ÑÑÑÐ¸Ðµ Ð·Ð°Ð´Ð°ÑÐ¸: 1. ÐÑÐ¾Ð²ÐµÐ´ÐµÐ½ Ð°Ð½Ð°Ð»Ð¸Ð· Ð°Ð½Ð°Ð»Ð¾Ð³Ð¸ÑÐ½ÑÑ Ð¸ÑÑÐ»ÐµÐ´Ð¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ð¹. 2. Ð¡Ð¾Ð±ÑÐ°Ð½Ñ Ð¸ Ð¾Ð±ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÐ°Ð½Ñ Ð´Ð°Ð½Ð½ÑÐµ Ð¾ Ð´Ð¾ÑÐ¾Ð¶Ð½Ð¾-ÑÑÐ°Ð½ÑÐ¿Ð¾ÑÑÐ½ÑÑ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð¸ÑÑÐµÑÑÐ²Ð¸ÑÑ. 3. ÐÑÐ¾Ð²ÐµÐ´ÐµÐ½ Ð¾Ð¿Ð¸ÑÐ°ÑÐµÐ»ÑÐ½ÑÐ¹ ÑÑÐ°ÑÐ¸ÑÑÐ¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¸Ð¹ Ð°Ð½Ð°Ð»Ð¸Ð· Ð´Ð°Ð½Ð½ÑÑ Ð´Ð»Ñ Ð²ÑÑÐ²Ð»ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ Ð¾ÑÐ½Ð¾Ð²Ð½ÑÑ ÑÐ°ÑÐ°ÐºÑÐµÑÐ¸ÑÑÐ¸Ðº Ð¸ Ð·Ð°ÐºÐ¾Ð½Ð¾Ð¼ÐµÑÐ½Ð¾ÑÑÐµÐ¹, ÑÐ²ÑÐ·Ð°Ð½Ð½ÑÑ Ñ ÑÑÐ¶ÐµÑÑÑÑ ÐÐ¢Ð. 4. ÐÑÐ¾Ð²ÐµÐ´ÐµÐ½Ð¾ ÑÐºÐ¾Ð½Ð¾Ð¼ÐµÑÑÐ¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¾Ðµ Ð¼Ð¾Ð´ÐµÐ»Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ðµ, Ð¿ÑÐ¸Ð¼ÐµÐ½ÐµÐ½Ñ Ð°Ð»Ð³Ð¾ÑÐ¸ÑÐ¼Ñ Ð¼Ð°ÑÐ¸Ð½Ð½Ð¾Ð³Ð¾ Ð¾Ð±ÑÑÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ: ÑÐ»ÑÑÐ°Ð¹Ð½ÑÐ¹ Ð»ÐµÑ Ð¸ Ð½ÐµÐ¹ÑÐ¾Ð½Ð½Ð°Ñ ÑÐµÑÑ. 5. ÐÑÑÐ²Ð»ÐµÐ½Ñ Ð²Ð»Ð¸ÑÑÐµÐ»ÑÐ½ÑÐµ ÑÐ°ÐºÑÐ¾ÑÑ Ð¸ Ð»ÑÑÑÐ¸Ð¹ Ð¼ÐµÑÐ¾Ð´ Ð°Ð½Ð°Ð»Ð¸Ð·Ð°. ÐÐ»Ñ Ð¾Ð±ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÐºÐ¸ Ð´Ð°Ð½Ð½ÑÑ Ð¸ÑÐ¿Ð¾Ð»ÑÐ·Ð¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ñ ÑÑÐµÐ´ÑÑÐ²Ð° Excel, Ð´Ð»Ñ Ð¼Ð¾Ð´ÐµÐ»Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ Ð¸ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð²ÐµÐ´ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ Ð¾Ð¿Ð¸ÑÐ°ÑÐµÐ»ÑÐ½Ð¾Ð¹ ÑÑÐ°ÑÐ¸ÑÑÐ¸ÐºÐ¸ Ð¸Ð½ÑÑÑÑÐ¼ÐµÐ½ÑÑ Python. Ð ÐµÐ·ÑÐ»ÑÑÐ°ÑÑ Ð¸ÑÑÐ»ÐµÐ´Ð¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ Ð¼Ð¾Ð³ÑÑ Ð±ÑÑÑ Ð¸ÑÐ¿Ð¾Ð»ÑÐ·Ð¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ñ Ð´Ð»Ñ ÑÐ°Ð·ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÐºÐ¸ Ð¼ÐµÑ Ð¿Ð¾ Ð¿Ð¾Ð²ÑÑÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ Ð±ÐµÐ·Ð¾Ð¿Ð°ÑÐ½Ð¾ÑÑÐ¸ Ð´Ð¾ÑÐ¾Ð¶Ð½Ð¾Ð³Ð¾ Ð´Ð²Ð¸Ð¶ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ, ÑÐ°ÐºÐ¸Ñ ÐºÐ°Ðº: â ÑÐ»ÑÑÑÐµÐ½Ð¸Ðµ Ð´Ð¾ÑÐ¾Ð¶Ð½Ð¾Ð¹ Ð¸Ð½ÑÑÐ°ÑÑÑÑÐºÑÑÑÑ Ð¸ ÑÑÐ»Ð¾Ð²Ð¸Ð¹ Ð´Ð¾ÑÐ¾Ð¶Ð½Ð¾Ð³Ð¾ Ð´Ð²Ð¸Ð¶ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ; â ÑÐ°Ð·ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÐºÐ° Ð¸ Ð²Ð½ÐµÐ´ÑÐµÐ½Ð¸Ðµ Ð±Ð¾Ð»ÐµÐµ Ð±ÐµÐ·Ð¾Ð¿Ð°ÑÐ½ÑÑ ÑÑÐ°Ð½ÑÐ¿Ð¾ÑÑÐ½ÑÑ ÑÑÐµÐ´ÑÑÐ².
description: This work is devoted to the identification, analysis and modeling of factors affecting the severity of road accidents using machine learning and econometric modeling methods. The purpose of the study is to identify the most significant factors affecting the severity of an accident and determine the most appropriate method of analysis. The following tasks were solved: 1. An analysis of similar studies was carried out. 2. Data on traffic accidents have been collected and processed. 3. A descriptive statistical analysis of the data was carried out to identify the main characteristics and patterns associated with the severity of the accident. 4. Econometric modeling was carried out, machine learning algorithms were applied: random forest and neural network. 5. Influential factors and the best method of analysis have been identified. Excel tools are used for data processing, and Python tools are used for modeling and conducting descriptive statistics. The results of the study can be used to develop measures to improve road safety, such as: - improvement of road infrastructure and traffic conditions; - development and implementation of safer vehicles.