Developing and Testing a Framework for Estimating Potential Emission Reduction Credits: a pilot study in Shasta County, California, USA
Creators: name: Saah, David
name: Moody, Tadashi
name: Waller, Eric K.
name: Newman, Erica
name: Moritz, Max A.
Publisher: name: figshare
Year: 2020
Subjects: subject: 60202 Community Ecology (excl. Invasive Species Ecology)
subject: FOS: Biological sciences
subject: FOS: Biological sciences
subject: 60299 Ecology not elsewhere classified
subject: 40104 Climate Change Processes
subject: FOS: Earth and related environmental sciences
subject: FOS: Earth and related environmental sciences
subject: Climate Science
subject: 50301 Carbon Sequestration Science
subject: FOS: Agriculture, forestry and fisheries
subject: FOS: Agriculture, forestry and fisheries
subject: 49999 Earth Sciences not elsewhere classified
subject: Ecology
subject: 50206 Environmental Monitoring
subject: 50205 Environmental Management
subject: 50211 Wildlife and Habitat Management
subject: 70503 Forestry Fire Management

description: This is a technical report provided to the State of California and Winrock International for the purposes of carbon accounting and wildfire management. The main document (for which this is an appendix) is credited to Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. <br>To cite this document, please use the following information:<br>Saah, D., Moody, T., Waller, E., Newman, E. and Moritz, M., 2010. Developing and Testing a Framework for Estimating Potential Emission Reduction Credits: a pilot study in Shasta County, California, USA. <i>In</i>: Emissions and Potential Emission Reductions from Hazardous Fuel Treatments in the WESTCARB Region, A. Schwarzenegger. Prepared for the California Energy Commission and Winrock International.<br><br>To assist Winrock International in establishing a rigorous approach for emissions reduction credits (ERCs), Spatial Informatics Group, in conjunction with the University of California, is developing a methodology that that uses scientifically based models for predicting changes in fire behavior and related emissions, both with and without hazardous fuels reduction treatments. To make these predictions, our report focuses on the development and testing of four elements in this framework: fire probability mapping, delineation of firesheds, choice of a fuel classification standard, and a baseline fire hazard assessment (without fuels treatments). This work was largely performed as a pilot study using data from Shasta County, California, USA. Long-term fire probability maps were developed for Shasta County using Maxent, a recently developed probabilistic distribution modeling tool. These maps can be used to calibrate ERC analysis, and they also serve as inputs into other elements of the framework. A total of 45 firesheds were delineated for Shasta County using an analysis of spatial distribution of fuels, weather, topography, potential fire behavior, and fire risk in a multivariate clustering model. Various fuel classification systems were considered for use in the ERC framework, with the fire behavior and FCCS formats standing out as the most appropriate. Emissions estimates were made for Shasta County using mapped FCCS fuel models and for four areas in the Sierra Nevada using fire behavior fuel models, demonstrating the feasibility of using these models in an integrated manner for the framework. A baseline fire hazard analysis was also performed, after generating mapped fire behavior characteristics for the current landscape in Shasta County under a historically severe fire weather scenario.