The prediction of physics grades at the university level from previously recorded data
Creators: name: Creelman, Arthur Graham
Publisher: name: University of British Columbia
Year: 2011

description: The aim of this study was to predict the Physics grades of North Vancouver Senior Secondary Physics 91 students in Physics 101 courses at the grade XIII and the university level, and in Physics 200, and Physics 155 and 156 at the university level. The prediction variables used were the intelligence quotient rated by Otis Self-Administering Tests of Mental Ability, Higher Examination: Form C, together with the grades in Physics 91 and Mathematics 91. These variables were used to predict the grades for Physics 100, 200 and Physics 155 and 156. The intelligence quotient and the grades in Physics 101, and Mathematics 101 were used to predict the grades for Physics 200 and Physics 155 and 156. The study was undertaken to determine whether the intelligence quotient and the standard of achievement in prerequisite courses provide a basis for prediction of success in the advanced physics courses. Such a prediction would be of value in offering academic guidance. Because of the multivariate nature of the predictors, the predicted grade was equated to the prediction variables by a multiple regression equation. When the coefficient of correlation was significant beyond the one per cent level, the null hypothesis was rejected and the prediction equation which resulted was assumed to be significantly predictive within the statistical limits stated. The accuracy of these predictions was tested by calculating the correlations between sets of actual grades in Physics 101, Physics 200, and Physics 155 and 156 for students who graduated from 1957 to 1961 from North Vancouver Senior Secondary School, and the corresponding sets of predicted grades for students who graduated from 1947 to 1957. Physics 101 grades as given by the Department of Education or the University of British Columbia showed correlation coefficients that were significant with both final course grade predictors as given by the classroom teacher and university entrance examination grade predictors. Physics 101 grades yielded higher correlation coefficients with university entrance grade predictors than with letter grade predictors. Physics 155 and 156 grades showed correlation coefficients that were significant with both letter grade predictors assigned by the high school teachers, with the Physics 101 grades and Mathematics 101 grades assigned by the University of British Columbia, and with the grades assigned by the Department of Education. Physics 200 grades showed correlation coefficients that were significant with both letter grade predictors assigned by the high school teachers and with the Physics 101 grades and Mathematics 101 grades assigned by the University of British Columbia and the grades assigned by the Department of Education. Physics 155 and 156 and Physics 200 grades had higher multiple correlation coefficients with University grade predictors than with letter grade predictors. Actual grades for Grade XIII Physics 101 and University Physics 101 correlated significantly with corresponding predicted grades. Actual grades for Physics 155 and 156 and Physics 200 correlated with predicted grades. The coefficients of correlation using University grade predictors to predict Physics 155 and 156 and Physics 200 grades, were both significant. The coefficient of correlation, using letter grade predictors to predict Physics 155 and 156, was significant. The results of the study Indicated that it is possible to predict Physics 101 grades for North Vancouver Senior Secondary Physics 91 students. University entrance grade predictors give equations with higher coefficients of correlation than letter grade predictors. The results also indicated that it is possible to predict the grades of Physics 155 and 156 and Physics 200 with letter grade predictors and University grade predictors. These results, made available to the counsellor, would enable him to advise students as to their probability of success, if they were to enroll in Physics 101, Physics 155 and 156 and Physics 200.