title: Analysis of current developments in global carbon markets
title: Analysis of current developments in global carbon markets
titleType: AlternativeTitle
Creators: name: Day, Thomas
name: Warnecke, Carsten
name: Fearnehough, Harry
Publisher: name: Umweltbundesamt
Year: 2020
Subjects: subject: Marktmechanismus
subject: Angebot und Nachfrage
subject: market mechanism
subject: cdm project
subject: Corsia
subject: supply and demand
subject: project vulnerability
subject: Sustainability | Strategies | International matters

description: Das Hauptziel dieses Forschungsprojekts bestand darin, Einblicke in den Stand der aktuellen Kohlenstoffmarktaktivitäten und Optionen zur Unterstützung der Fortführung neuer und bestehender Minderungsaktivitäten in der Zeit vor 2020 zu geben. In einer Analyse über die Anfälligkeit von CDM-Projekten für die wichtigsten Projekttypen in Schlüsselländern haben wir das Risiko bewertet, dass Projekte ohne signifikante CER-Einnahmen die Fortsetzung ihrer THG-Reduzierung einstellen. In diesem Kontext haben wir eine Bottom-up-Bewertung des CER-Angebotspotenzials für den Zeitraum 2013-2020 durchgeführt. Das gesamte CER-Angebotspotenzial für den Zeitraum 2013-2020 ist mit 4,6 Milliarden CER beträchtlich und liegt weit über dem derzeitigen Ausgabe- und Nachfrageniveau. Lediglich 4% des maximalen CER-Angebotspotenzials, das 171 Millionen CER entspricht, stammt aus Projekttypen, die gemäß der Analyse als besonders anfällig eingestuft wurden. Aufbauend auf dieser quantitativen Analyse haben wir die Grenzkosten des CER-Angebots und die Auswirkungen verschiedener Szenarien für die CER-Zulassung auf die CER-Angebotskurve untersucht. In unserem Referenzfall können bis zu 3,8 Milliarden neue CERs den Markt zu Preisen unter 1 pro Einheit beliefern. Wir können belegen, dass strenge Zulassungsbeschränkungen für das Angebot von CERs aus bestehenden CDM-Projekten essentiell sind für alle neuen Nachfragequellen um die Erzeugung von THG-Minderungsaktivitäten sicherzustellen, die sonst nicht aufgetreten wären. Wir haben auch die Auswirkungen von Zertifikatsaufkaufprogrammen zur Unterstützung gefährdeter Projekte und das Potenzial für ähnliche Anstrengungen zur Ausweitung dieser Auswirkungen bewertet. Quelle: Forschungsbericht
description: The major aim of this research project was to provide insights on the state of current carbon market activities and options for supporting the continuation of new and existing mitigation activities in the pre-2020 period. In an analysis of CDM project vulnerability for major project types in key countries, we assessed the risk that projects would cease continuation of their GHG abatement without significant CER revenues. In this context, we conducted a bottom up assessment of CER supply potential in the 2013-2020 period. The total CER supply potential for the 2013-2020 period is considerable, at 4.6 billion CERs, well in excess of current levels of issuance and demand. Just 4% of the maximum CER supply potential, representing 171 million CERs, comes from project types that were classified from the analysis as having typically high vulnerability. Building further on this quantitative analysis, we assessed the marginal cost of CER supply, and how the CER supply curve would be affected by different scenarios for CER eligibility. In our Base Case, up to 3.8 billion new CERs could supply the market at prices below 1 per unit. We find evidence that robust eligibility restrictions on the supply of CERs from existing CDM projects are essential for any new sources of demand to support GHG emission abatement that would not have occurred otherwise. We assessed the impact of credit purchase facilities for supporting vulnerable projects, and the potential for similar efforts to upscale these impacts. Quelle: Forschungsbericht
description: The research project analysed and evaluated the current status of the use of climate protection projects from the CDM in the international carbon market.  Based on a maximum offer in the CDM of 4.6 billion emission credits (so-called CERs) for the years 2013-2020, a first analysis identified and quantified project types that are particularly dependent on the revenues from the CDM, i.e. where the risk of project termination appears particularly high due to the currently low market prices (so-called vulnerable projects). It was shown, for example, that commercial livestock manure management projects or those to promote improved cook stoves would probably be abandoned without the additional income from the CDM, and therefore cease continuation of their GHG abatement. Based on these findings, the implication of different restrictions on the potential volume and cost of supplying CERs was assessed. The restrictions considered relate both to various cut-off date regulations that would exclude older CDM projects as well as to the promotion of particularly vulnerable projects. According to the analyses, such restrictions have a significant impact on the future supply potential and can reduce the volume of CER supply to less than 1/10 of the maximum possible supply. Finally, the data and calculation tools used in the project were updated and summarized so that, considering various conceivable regulatory restrictions, an updated calculation of possible CER supply until 2035 can be made at any time in the future.