title: Assessment of climate risks in Central and Northern Liberia
Creators: name: Sarnoh, Yusuff Mohammed
Publisher: name: University of Glasgow
Year: 2024

description: Climate change and variability is adversely affecting smallholder farming households in Africa and particular in Liberia because their activity depends on climate-regulated water resources such as rainfall. However, the responses of affected districts have elicited relatively limited attention from policy makers and academic researchers, and in particular, little is understood about the complex factors that shape how farming households have sought to tackle the impact of climate change and variability. This thesis addresses this gap by analyzing the ways in which rural farmers in six districts in central and northern counties of Liberia have sought to adapt to climate variability. The study combined insights from a risk analysis framework with sustainable livelihoods approaches and the concept of adaptation strategies to advance the understanding of climate risk. This research deploys a mixed method, multi-scale approach in central and northern Liberia where rural farmers continue to be affected by climate variability. Questionnaires, semi-structured interviews, key informants’ interviews, policy discussion with experts and desk review of national policy documents are used to elicit the extent of crop production (mainly rice and cassava) and livelihood risk as a result of climate change and variability across multiple scales: mapping exposure, vulnerability and risk at the district levels. The study results show that Liberia has been impacted by climate variability, as evidenced in the average temperature and rainfall variability. Results demonstrate that risk of crop production to climate variability (especially dry spells or delayed rainfall) has obvious geographical and socioeconomic patterns, with the central and northern counties being exposed and vulnerable. The results of the risk assessment are used to guide local level research and demonstrate the need for county-specific policies to reduce climate risk and enhance delayed rainfall or dry spells preparedness within dryland farming districts. Within the same agroecological environment, different districts experience different risks attributed to differences in socioeconomic characteristics. The results of the study also indicate that climate risk of farming households can be linked to access to livelihood capital assets and that exposed, and susceptible districts tend to have farmers that are considered by low levels of natural, financial, physical and social capitals. Although farmers use a variety of coping and adaptive strategies such as crop diversification, planting of drought resistant plants, changing the time of planting and early maturing varieties of crops, livelihood diversification, crop rotation/shifting cultivation, temporary migration, relying on help from family and friends and reducing food consumption to manage climate variability, these are insufficient to prevent them from being affected by food insecurity. Results further indicate a variety of challenges such as poor access to information on climate adaptation, limited access to markets, lack of financial resources, complex land tenure systems, social cultural barriers, limited access to improved varieties of crops, as well as a lack of institutional support pose serious barriers to adaptation. 

The implication of this study is that policy makers need to play a significant role in formulating appropriate and targeted climate adaptation policies that promote the development and planting of improved varieties of crops; enable farmers to engage in different livelihood diversification strategies; and allow for the provision of institutional support such as access to information on climate adaptation and adequate all-year-round extension services. Such policies should be linked to programmes that promote asset building as well as enhance institutional capacity and social capital in the study counties and Liberia in general.