Hypotheses and Predictions in Biology Research and Education: An Investigation of Contemporary Relevance
Creators: name: Karippadath, Anupriya S.
Publisher: name: Purdue University Graduate School
Year: 2023
Subjects: Other biological sciences not elsewhere classified
Higher education

description: The process of scientific inquiry is critical for students to understand how knowledge is developed and validated. Representations of the process of inquiry have varied over time, from simple to complex, but some concepts are persistent – such as the concept of a scientific hypothesis. Current guidelines for undergraduate biology education prioritize developing student competence in generating and evaluating hypotheses but fail to define the concept and role of hypotheses. The nature of science literature points to the hypothetico-deductive method of inquiry originated by Karl Popper as a widely accepted conception of scientific hypotheses. Popper characterized a hypothesis as a falsifiable explanation of observed phenomena deduced from previously established knowledge. Alongside hypotheses, Popper also emphasizes the role of predictions, which are logically derived from hypotheses and characterized as testable expectations regarding the outcomes of an experiment or study. Together, hypotheses and predictions are thought to provide a framework for establishing rigorous conclusions in scientific studies. However, the absence of explicit definitions of hypotheses, or predictions, in guidelines and assessment for biology higher education makes it difficult to determine the current relevance of this perspective on hypotheses and predictions in teaching and learning. This leaves us with an unanswered question – what do biology undergraduate students need to know about scientific hypotheses? We addressed this question over three studies each investigating conceptions of scientific hypotheses, and the related concept of predictions, in a different context – (a) contemporary biology research communications, (b) a case study of biology faculty, graduate teaching assistants, and undergraduate students at a single institution, and (c) a national survey of biology faculty members. We found that the terms “hypothesis” and “prediction” used in varied ways in biology research communication and, most notably, often not connected with each other. We also found variation in conceptions of both hypothesis and prediction among faculty members, both in our case study and in the national survey. Our results indicate that faculty members did not always distinguish between the terms hypothesis and prediction in research or teaching or approach them the same way in research contexts. However, they had largely consistent ideas of the underlying reasoning connecting these concepts to each other and to scientific inquiry. Among graduate teaching assistants and undergraduate students in the case study, we found variation in conceptions of both hypotheses and predictions that was different from conceptions held by faculty members. Both graduate teaching assistants and undergraduate students often did not connect the two concepts in terms of underlying reasoning. Overall, our results indicate that there are some misalignments between students’ and instructors’ conceptions of hypotheses and predictions and their role in inquiry. We further discuss these findings in the context of teaching implications for undergraduate biology.