Assessing the impact of agricultural intensification and adaptation on the performance of food production in Malawi under a changing climate
Creators: name: Kawaye, Floney
Publisher: name: The Australian National University
Year: 2021

description: The changing climate poses a food security challenge for Malawi. The Government of Malawi is investing in smallholder dryland agriculture, through Farm Input Subsidy Program (FISP), and in commercial irrigation agriculture, through Green Belt Initiative (GBI). This study analysed the monthly climate of Malawi and dependent food crop production to assess the impact of climate variability and projected climate change on food crop yields. These analyses were used to assess the performance of FISP. Interviews with government departments were conducted to assess current programs and societal attitudes addressing climate change. It is anticipated that these assessments will contribute towards effective adaptation to the impacts of climate change. Excel analyses showed ongoing increases in production, area and yield of both cassava and sweet potato due to factors that have favoured the production, consumption and commercialisation of cassava and sweet potato more than maize. The analyses also showed increasing area under cultivation and total production for hybrid and composite maize varieties and decreasing for local maize varieties. There was a clear increase in yields and areas for composite and hybrid varieties after 2005 that can be attributed in part to FISP. GROWEST model analyses have provided robust correlations between modelled and actual yield of cassava and sweet potato in terms of the current monthly climate. It has also modelled the impact of climate on year-to-year variability of reported yields for all three maize varieties using a new model that calibrated different optimum temperatures for the vegetative and reproductive stages of maize growth. The GROWEST analysis further showed significant increases in composite and hybrid maize yield after the introduction of FISP in 2005 that cannot be explained by climatic variability and that the yield data after the introduction of FISP are unlikely to have been artificially inflated. This implies that FISP has made a significant contribution towards the increased maize production and improved food security. This underscores the importance of FISP as a climate change adaptation strategy for smallholder farmers. Being under dryland farming, FISP is challenged by climate change. This study suggests that Malawi needs a hybrid of dryland agriculture (FISP etc.) and irrigation agriculture (GBI etc.) that maintains a strong focus on dryland farming. GROWEST analyses showed that projected increases in temperature are likely to enhance cassava yield and slightly reduce sweet potato yield. Increased temperatures are likely to enhance the vegetative growth of composite and hybrid maize and slightly reduce the reproductive growth of all three maize varieties. Strengths of the GROWEST model include the robustness in making use of spatially distributed climate data from limited point sources. Limitations of the GROWEST modelling include an assumption that management practice does not change significantly from year to year. Despite such limitations, GROWEST model has provided robust correlations between modelled and actual yields for all five crops examined. Qualitative research show that Malawi has responded to climate change by adopting polices, strategies and projects that target climate change adaptation. Policies include United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (global), the Comprehensive African Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) (regional) and the Malawi Constitution and the Malawi Growth and Development Strategies (MGDs) (local). This research further showed that FISP and GBI need to adopt a holistic landscape management approach to sustainably achieve food, environmental and socio-economic security. Additionally, governance issues including management of government projects, land acquisition, harmonisation of policies and allocation of public resources still need to be addressed for both FISP and the GBI.