title: Impacts of climate change on mangrove subsistence fishers
Creators: name: Alberto, Roann
Publisher: name: University of Liverpool Repository
Year: 2024

description: Climate change, specifically the increase in the number and intensity of heat waves and intensity of typhoons, poses risks to mangrove ecosystems and the subsistence fishers dependent upon them. To prepare the fishers, these threats require addressing through both scientific and sociological analyses to allow us to educate them to the imminent effects of climate change. This thesis uses a multidisciplinary approach, first, to identify and quantify the primary impacts of climate change on mangrove subsistence fishers and second to assess the perceptions of the fishers regarding their understanding of climate change. These are essential steps prior to considering educational strategies. To this end, the thesis, examines mangrove subsistence fishers in the Philippines, with the intention to apply the findings both locally and globally. A focused literature review identifies the main climate change threats which are heat waves, low-category typhoons, and high-category typhoons. It then quantifies these threats through a predictive model that assesses “fishing-days lost” (indicating an increase of 11 to 21 days will be lost per fisher per year over the next decade, with close to 70% of these due to the increase in high-category typhoons). The thesis then explores the use of a second metric to quantify the threats: economic losses of these fishers, reported in Philippine Pesos but also placed in an international context using the direct conversion and as purchasing power parity the Big Mac index that converts financial losses to US dollar purchasing power parity equivalents. The financial losses equate to only ~6% of the estimated annual net income of $12,000 and $23,000 per fisher, assuming all stocks are sold, as by definition. This suggests that while economic losses offer insight into financial capacity, the metric of fishing-days lost is more indicative of the immediate operational challenges fishers face, and is therefore more applicable for assessing the educational needs of fishers. Once threats were identified and quantified, the thesis then explores the perceptions of subsistence fishers regarding climate change. Specifically, it assesses the impacts of key demographic parameters i.e., gender, age, location, education, on their perceptions through a survey of 335 participants in local subsistence fishing communities in the Philippines. Whereas 84% of fishers believe that climate change is a reality, only 50% perceive its effects related to the threats identified above. The differences in perceived observations are influenced mainly by their local “barangay” (the smallest identifiable socio-political community), highlighting the role of local context in shaping understanding of climate change, and directing future education to the appropriate level. Finally, the thesis concludes by offering guidance to educators and the scientific community, advocating for a multidisciplinary approach in future research across diverse fields including climate science, biology, ecology, fisheries, economics, social science, health, engineering, and psychology.