Health 2000 score – development and validation of a novel cardiovascular risk score
Creators: name: Johansson, Jouni K.
name: Puukka, Pauli J.
name: Niiranen, Teemu J.
name: Varis, Juha
name: Peltonen, Markku
name: Salomaa, Veikko
name: Jula, Antti M.
Publisher: name: Taylor & Francis
Year: 2016
Subjects: subject: Medicine
subject: Biotechnology
subject: 59999 Environmental Sciences not elsewhere classified
subject: FOS: Earth and related environmental sciences
subject: FOS: Earth and related environmental sciences
subject: 69999 Biological Sciences not elsewhere classified
subject: FOS: Biological sciences
subject: FOS: Biological sciences
subject: 19999 Mathematical Sciences not elsewhere classified
subject: FOS: Mathematics
subject: FOS: Mathematics
subject: Science Policy

description: <b>Background:</b> Previous risk scores for predicting myocardial infarctions and strokes have mainly been based on conventional risk factors. We aimed to develop a novel improved risk score that would incorporate other widely available clinical variables for predicting the broadest range of endpoints, including revascularizations. <b>Methods:</b> A nationwide sample of 5843 Finns underwent a clinical examination in 2000–2001. The participants were followed for a median of 11.2 years for incident cardiovascular events. Model discrimination and calibration were assessed and internal validation was performed. <b>Results:</b> Sex, age, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, smoking status, parental death from cardiovascular disease, left ventricular hypertrophy, hemoglobin A1c, and educational level remained significant predictors of cardiovascular events (p ≤ 0.005 for all). The share of participants with ≥10% estimated cardiovascular risk was 28.9%, 18.5%, 36.9% and 23.8% with the Health 2000, Finrisk, Framingham and Reynolds risk scores. The Health 2000 score (<i>c</i>-statistic: 0.850) showed superior discrimination to the Framingham (<i>c</i>-statistic improvement: 0.021) and Reynolds (<i>c</i>-statistic improvement: 0.007) scores (p c-statistic improvement: 0.006, p = 0.003). <b>Conclusions:</b> The Health 2000score improves cardiovascular risk prediction in the current study population.KEY MESSAGESPrevious risk scores for predicting myocardial infarctions and strokes have mainly been based on conventional risk factors.We aimed to develop a novel improved risk score that would incorporate other widely available clinical variables (including left ventricular hypertrophy, hemoglobin A1c, and education level) for predicting the broadest range of endpoints, including revascularizations.The Health 2000 score improved cardiovascular risk prediction in the current study population compared with traditional cardiovascular risk prediction scores. Previous risk scores for predicting myocardial infarctions and strokes have mainly been based on conventional risk factors. We aimed to develop a novel improved risk score that would incorporate other widely available clinical variables (including left ventricular hypertrophy, hemoglobin A1c, and education level) for predicting the broadest range of endpoints, including revascularizations. The Health 2000 score improved cardiovascular risk prediction in the current study population compared with traditional cardiovascular risk prediction scores.