title: Ð Ð°Ð·ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÐºÐ° Ð¸Ð½ÑÑÑÑÐ¼ÐµÐ½ÑÐ° Ð´Ð»Ñ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ ÑÑÐ¿ÐµÑÐ½Ð¾ÑÑÐ¸ ÑÐµÐ·ÑÐ»ÑÑÐ°ÑÐ¾Ð² ÑÑÑÐ´ÐµÐ½ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¸Ñ Ð¿ÑÐ¾ÐµÐºÑÐ¾Ð² Ð½Ð° Ð±Ð°Ð·Ðµ ÑÐµÑ Ð½Ð¾Ð»Ð¾Ð³Ð¸Ð¹ Ð¼Ð°ÑÐ¸Ð½Ð½Ð¾Ð³Ð¾ Ð¾Ð±ÑÑÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ (Ð´Ð»Ñ ÐºÑÑÑÐ° Â«ÐÑÐ½Ð¾Ð²Ñ Ð¿ÑÐ¾ÐµÐºÑÐ½Ð¾Ð¹ Ð´ÐµÑÑÐµÐ»ÑÐ½Ð¾ÑÑÐ¸Â» Ð¡Ð°Ð½ÐºÑ-ÐÐµÑÐµÑÐ±ÑÑÐ³ÑÐºÐ¾Ð³Ð¾ Ð¿Ð¾Ð»Ð¸ÑÐµÑ Ð½Ð¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¾Ð³Ð¾ ÑÐ½Ð¸Ð²ÐµÑÑÐ¸ÑÐµÑÐ° ÐÐµÑÑÐ° ÐÐµÐ»Ð¸ÐºÐ¾Ð³Ð¾Â»)
title: Ð²ÑÐ¿ÑÑÐºÐ½Ð°Ñ ÐºÐ²Ð°Ð»Ð¸ÑÐ¸ÐºÐ°ÑÐ¸Ð¾Ð½Ð½Ð°Ñ ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÐ° Ð±Ð°ÐºÐ°Ð»Ð°Ð²ÑÐ°
titleType: Subtitle
title: Development of a tool for predicting the success of student projects based on machine learning technologies (for "Fundamentals of project activities" course based in SPBSTU)
Creators: name: Ð¡Ð¸Ð»Ð¸Ð½Ð°, ÐÐ²Ð³ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ
Publisher: name: Ð¡Ð°Ð½ÐºÑ-ÐÐµÑÐµÑÐ±ÑÑÐ³ÑÐºÐ¸Ð¹ Ð¿Ð¾Ð»Ð¸ÑÐµÑÐ½Ð¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¸Ð¹ ÑÐ½Ð¸Ð²ÐµÑÑÐ¸ÑÐµÑ ÐÐµÑÑÐ° ÐÐµÐ»Ð¸ÐºÐ¾Ð³Ð¾
Year: 2022
Subjects: ÐºÐ¾Ð¼Ð°Ð½Ð´Ð° Ð¿ÑÐ¾ÐµÐºÑÐ°
ÑÐµÐ·ÑÐ»ÑÑÐ°ÑÑ Ð¿ÑÐ¾ÐµÐºÑÐ°
Ð¼Ð°ÑÐ¸Ð½Ð½Ð¾Ðµ Ð¾Ð±ÑÑÐµÐ½Ð¸Ðµ
Ð´ÐµÑÐµÐ²Ð¾ ÐºÐ»Ð°ÑÑÐ¸ÑÐ¸ÐºÐ°ÑÐ¸Ð¸
project team
project results
machine learning
classification tree

description: Ð¦ÐµÐ»Ñ ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÑ â ÑÐ°Ð·ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÐºÐ° Ð¸Ð½ÑÑÑÑÐ¼ÐµÐ½ÑÐ° Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ ÑÑÐ¿ÐµÑÐ½Ð¾ÑÑÐ¸ ÑÑÑÐ´ÐµÐ½ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¸Ñ Ð¿ÑÐ¾ÐµÐºÑÐ¾Ð² Ð½Ð° Ð¾ÑÐ½Ð¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ð¸ Ð´Ð°Ð½Ð½ÑÑ Ð¾ ÑÑÑÐ´ÐµÐ½ÑÐ°Ñ-ÑÑÐ°ÑÑÐ½Ð¸ÐºÐ°Ñ ÐºÑÑÑÐ° Ð½Ð° Ð±Ð°Ð·Ðµ Ð¼Ð°ÑÐ¸Ð½Ð½Ð¾Ð³Ð¾ Ð¾Ð±ÑÑÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ. ÐÐ»Ñ Ð´Ð¾ÑÑÐ¸Ð¶ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ Ð´Ð°Ð½Ð½Ð¾Ð¹ ÑÐµÐ»Ð¸ Ð±ÑÐ»Ð¸ Ð¿Ð¾ÑÑÐ°Ð²Ð»ÐµÐ½Ñ Ð¸ Ð²ÑÐ¿Ð¾Ð»Ð½ÐµÐ½Ñ ÑÐ»ÐµÐ´ÑÑÑÐ¸Ðµ Ð·Ð°Ð´Ð°ÑÐ¸: ÐÑÑÐ»ÐµÐ´Ð¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ðµ Ð²Ð»Ð¸ÑÐ½Ð¸Ðµ ÐºÐ¾Ð¼Ð°Ð½Ð´Ñ Ð¿ÑÐ¾ÐµÐºÑÐ° Ð½Ð° ÑÑÐ¿ÐµÑÐ½Ð¾ÑÑÑ Ð¿ÑÐ¾ÐµÐºÑÐ°. ÐÑÐ¾Ð²ÐµÐ´ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ðµ ÑÑÐ°ÑÐ¸ÑÑÐ¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¾Ð³Ð¾ Ð°Ð½Ð°Ð»Ð¸Ð·Ð° Ð´ÐµÐ¿ÐµÑÑÐ¾Ð½Ð°Ð»Ð¸Ð·Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð½ÑÑ Ð´Ð°Ð½Ð½ÑÑ ÐºÑÑÑÐ° ÐÐÐ 2020-2021 Ð³Ð³. Ñ Ð²ÑÐ²Ð¾Ð´Ð¾Ð¼ ÐºÐ»ÑÑÐµÐ²ÑÑ ÑÐ°ÐºÑÐ¾ÑÐ¾Ð², Ð²Ð»Ð¸ÑÑÑÐ¸Ñ Ð½Ð° ÑÐµÐ·ÑÐ»ÑÑÐ°ÑÑ Ð¿ÑÐ¾ÐµÐºÑÐ°. Ð Ð°Ð·ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÐºÐ° Ð¸Ð½ÑÑÑÑÐ¼ÐµÐ½ÑÐ° Ð´Ð»Ñ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ ÑÑÐ¿ÐµÑÐ½Ð¾ÑÑÐ¸ ÑÐµÐ·ÑÐ»ÑÑÐ°ÑÐ¾Ð² ÑÑÑÐ´ÐµÐ½ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¸Ñ Ð¿ÑÐ¾ÐµÐºÑÐ¾Ð² Ð¿Ð¾ ÐºÐ»ÑÑÐµÐ²ÑÐ¼ ÑÐ°ÐºÑÐ¾ÑÐ°Ð¼ Ð½Ð° Ð±Ð°Ð·Ðµ Ð¼Ð°ÑÐ¸Ð½Ð½Ð¾Ð³Ð¾ Ð¾Ð±ÑÑÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ. ÐÑÐ¾Ð²ÐµÐ´ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ðµ Ð°Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð±Ð°ÑÐ¸Ð¸ ÑÐ°Ð·ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÐ°Ð½Ð½Ð¾Ð³Ð¾ Ð¸Ð½ÑÑÑÑÐ¼ÐµÐ½ÑÐ° Ð½Ð° ÐºÑÑÑÐµ Â«ÐÑÐ½Ð¾Ð²Ñ Ð¿ÑÐ¾ÐµÐºÑÐ½Ð¾Ð¹ Ð´ÐµÑÑÐµÐ»ÑÐ½Ð¾ÑÑÐ¸ Ð½Ð° Ð±Ð°Ð·Ðµ Ð¡ÐÐ±ÐÐ£ Ð² Ð²ÐµÑÐµÐ½Ð½ÐµÐ¼ ÑÐµÐ¼ÐµÑÑÑÐµ 2021-2022 Ð³Ð³. ÐÑÐµÐ½ÐºÐ° ÑÐ¾ÑÐ½Ð¾ÑÑÐ¸ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð° Ð¿Ð¾ ÑÐµÐ·ÑÐ»ÑÑÐ°ÑÐ°Ð¼ Ð°Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð±Ð°ÑÐ¸Ð¸. Ð ÑÐ¾Ð´Ðµ ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÑ Ð±ÑÐ»Ð¸ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð°Ð½Ð°Ð»Ð¸Ð·Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ñ ÐºÑÐ¸ÑÐµÑÐ¸Ð¸ ÑÑÑÐµÐºÑÐ¸Ð²Ð½Ð¾ÑÑÐ¸ ÐºÐ¾Ð¼Ð°Ð½Ð´Ñ, Ð¸ÑÑÐ»ÐµÐ´Ð¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ñ Ð´Ð²Ðµ Ð¼Ð¾Ð´ÐµÐ»Ð¸ ÑÑÐ¿ÐµÑÐ½Ð¾ÑÑÐ¸ Ð¿ÑÐ¾ÐµÐºÑÐ° Ð¸ Ð²ÑÐ²ÐµÐ´ÐµÐ½Ð° Ð²Ð·Ð°Ð¸Ð¼Ð¾ÑÐ²ÑÐ·Ñ Ð¼ÐµÐ¶Ð´Ñ ÑÑÑÐµÐºÑÐ¸Ð²Ð½Ð¾ÑÑÑÑ ÐºÐ¾Ð¼Ð°Ð½Ð´Ñ Ð¸ ÑÑÐ¿ÐµÑÐ½Ð¾ÑÑÑÑ Ð¿ÑÐ¾ÐµÐºÑÐ°. ÐÐ° Ð¾ÑÐ½Ð¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ð¸ ÑÑÐ¾Ð³Ð¾ ÑÐµÐ¾ÑÐµÑÐ¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¾Ð³Ð¾ Ð¸ÑÑÐ»ÐµÐ´Ð¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ Ð±ÑÐ»Ð° Ð²ÑÐ¿Ð¾Ð»Ð½ÐµÐ½Ð° Ð¿ÑÐ°ÐºÑÐ¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ°Ñ ÑÐ°ÑÑÑ ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÑ, Ð²ÐºÐ»ÑÑÐ°ÑÑÐ°Ñ Ð² ÑÐµÐ±Ñ Ð¿Ð¾Ð´Ð³Ð¾ÑÐ¾Ð²ÐºÑ Ð´Ð°Ð½Ð½ÑÑ Ð·Ð° 2020-2021 Ð¸ 2021-2022 ÑÑÐµÐ±Ð½ÑÐµ Ð³Ð¾Ð´Ð°, Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð²ÐµÐ´ÑÐ½ ÐºÐ¾ÑÑÐµÐ»ÑÑÐ¸Ð¾Ð½Ð½ÑÐ¹ Ð°Ð½Ð°Ð»Ð¸Ð· Ñ Ð¿Ð¾ÑÐ»ÐµÐ´ÑÑÑÐ¸Ð¼ Ð°Ð½Ð°Ð»Ð¸Ð·Ð¾Ð¼ ÐºÐ°ÑÐµÑÑÐ²Ð° Ð´Ð°Ð½Ð½ÑÑ, Ð¿ÑÐ¸ÑÐ¸Ð½ Ð½Ð¸Ð·ÐºÐ¾Ð¹ ÑÐ¸ÑÑÐ¾ÑÑ Ð´Ð°Ð½Ð½ÑÑ Ð¸ ÑÐµÐºÐ¾Ð¼ÐµÐ½Ð´Ð°ÑÐ¸Ð¹ Ð¿Ð¾ ÐµÑ Ð¿Ð¾Ð²ÑÑÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ. ÐÐ°Ðº Ð±ÑÐ»Ð¾ ÑÐ¿Ð¾Ð¼ÑÐ½ÑÑÐ¾ ÑÐ°Ð½ÐµÐµ, Ð±ÑÐ» ÑÐ°Ð·ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÐ°Ð½ Ð¸Ð½ÑÑÑÑÐ¼ÐµÐ½Ñ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ ÑÑÐ¿ÐµÑÐ½Ð¾ÑÑÐ¸ ÑÑÑÐ´ÐµÐ½ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¸Ñ Ð¿ÑÐ¾ÐµÐºÑÐ¾Ð², Ñ Ð²Ð¸Ð·ÑÐ°Ð»Ð¸Ð·Ð°ÑÐ¸ÐµÐ¹ ÑÐµÐ·ÑÐ»ÑÑÐ°ÑÐ¾Ð² (Ð´ÐµÑÐµÐ²Ð° ÐºÐ»Ð°ÑÑÐ¸ÑÐ¸ÐºÐ°ÑÐ¸Ð¸, Ð¼Ð°ÑÑÐ¸ÑÑ Ð¾ÑÐ¸Ð±Ð¾Ðº) Ð¸ Ð±Ð»Ð¾ÐºÐ¾Ð¼ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð° Ð¸ Ð±ÑÐ»Ð° Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð²ÐµÐ´ÐµÐ½Ð° Ð°Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð±Ð°ÑÐ¸Ñ Ð¸Ð½ÑÑÑÑÐ¼ÐµÐ½ÑÐ°.
description: The purpose of the work is to develop a tool for predicting the success of student projects based on data on students participating in the course based on machine learning. To achieve this goal, the following tasks were set and completed:Research the impact of the project team on the success of the project. Conducting a statistical analysis of the depersonalized data of FPA course 2020-2021 with the conclusion of the key factors influencing the results of the project. Development of a tool for predicting the success of the results of student projects on key factors based on machine learning. Testing of the developed tool at the course "Fundamentals of project activityâ on the basis of SPbSTU in the spring semester of 2021-2022. Assessment of the accuracy of the forecast based on the results of testing.In the course of the work, the criteria for the effectiveness of the team were analyzed, two models of project success were investigated and the relationship between the effectiveness of the team and the success of the project was derived. Based on this theoretical study, the practical part of the work was carried out, including the preparation of data for the 2020-2021 and 2021-2022 academic years, a correlation analysis was carried out, followed by an analysis of data quality, the reasons for the low purity of data and recommendations for its improvement. As mentioned earlier, a tool for predicting the success of student projects was developed, with visualization of the results (classification tree, error matrix) and a forecast block, and the tool was tested.