title: ÐÐ½Ð°Ð»Ð¸Ð· ÑÐ¸ÑÐºÐ¾Ð² ÑÐºÑÐ¿Ð¾ÑÑÐ½Ð¾-Ð¸Ð¼Ð¿Ð¾ÑÑÐ½ÑÑ Ð¾Ð¿ÐµÑÐ°ÑÐ¸Ð¹ Ð² ÑÐ°Ð¼ÐºÐ°Ñ Ð¿ÑÐ¸Ð³ÑÐ°Ð½Ð¸ÑÐ½Ð¾Ð³Ð¾ ÑÐ¾ÑÑÑÐ´Ð½Ð¸ÑÐµÑÑÐ²Ð°
title: Ð²ÑÐ¿ÑÑÐºÐ½Ð°Ñ ÐºÐ²Ð°Ð»Ð¸ÑÐ¸ÐºÐ°ÑÐ¸Ð¾Ð½Ð½Ð°Ñ ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÐ° Ð¼Ð°Ð³Ð¸ÑÑÑÐ°
titleType: Subtitle
title: Risk analysis of export-import operations within the framework of cross-border cooperation
Creators: name: ÐÐµÑÑÐ¸Ð½Ð°, ÐÐ°Ð¹Ñ
Publisher: name: Ð¡Ð°Ð½ÐºÑ-ÐÐµÑÐµÑÐ±ÑÑÐ³ÑÐºÐ¸Ð¹ Ð¿Ð¾Ð»Ð¸ÑÐµÑÐ½Ð¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¸Ð¹ ÑÐ½Ð¸Ð²ÐµÑÑÐ¸ÑÐµÑ ÐÐµÑÑÐ° ÐÐµÐ»Ð¸ÐºÐ¾Ð³Ð¾
Year: 2022
Subjects: Ð°Ð½Ð°Ð»Ð¸Ð· ÑÐ¸ÑÐºÐ¾Ð²
Ð¼Ð¾Ð´ÐµÐ»Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ðµ Ð²Ð¾Ð»Ð°ÑÐ¸Ð»ÑÐ½Ð¾ÑÑÐ¸
ÑÐµÐ¾ÑÐ¸Ñ Ð½ÐµÑÐµÑÐºÐ¾Ð¹ Ð»Ð¾Ð³Ð¸ÐºÐ¸
Ð¼ÐµÑÐ¾Ð´Ñ ÑÐ¿ÑÐ°Ð²Ð»ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÑÐ¸ÑÐºÐ°Ð¼Ð¸
risk analysis
volatility modeling
fuzzy logic theory
risk management methods

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description: The subject of the graduate qualification work is: "Risk analysis of export-import operations within the framework of cross-border cooperation".Â The aim of this research work is to analyze different risks that are associated with the cross-border export and import operations, implementing all the stages of risk analysis, such as identification, classification, quantitative assessment and providing possible ways to risk management. The research set the following goals:Â Definition of the concepts of risk and uncertainty, the existing approaches to risk management;Â Classification of different risks inherent to cross-border cooperation, including the currency, force majeure and personnel risks; Research of different approaches for accessing these groups of risks; Creation of model to access the exchange rate risk through volatility modeling; Analysis of the impact of currency volatility and the covid-19 pandemic on the export and import operations between Saint Petersburg and Finland; Construction of a fuzzy inference system for personnel risk analysis; Development of recommendations for risk management. The objects of the study are export-import operations within the framework of cross-border cooperation. The subject of the work is the methodological foundations of risk analysis and management. In the work, we used such methods as expert evaluation method, fuzzy logic, and econometric models (GARCH, ARDL, Granger causality, Random Forest).Â The result of the work were the models for analyzing certain groups of risks that are inherent in cross-border cooperation. Furthermore, the recommendations for risk management were developed based on the conducted analysis. It was concluded that the best methods for managing the force majeure risk were transfer and insurance, for personnel risk â localization. The methods for currency risk management include various possibilities (limitation, diversification, hedging, etc.).