Integration of Subnational Endogenous Hydropower into the Global Change Analysis Model for Canada
Creators: Arbuckle, Evan J.
Publisher: name: University of Alberta Library
Year: 2023

<p>Hydropower currently provides a small majority of all electricity generation in Canada. This gives the nation an early advantage for shifting toward lower-emission energy sources. Energy systems are changing rapidly to adjust to new realities regarding technologies, resource availability and cost, and climate policies related to emissions reduction. Existing hydropower is likely to continue to provide reliable electricity over long lifespans, and its flexibility allows it to be deployed as storage to offset more intermittent renewables like solar and wind power. Few studies address the ability for new hydropower to be developed in Canada, and how that new development might be distributed across regional energy systems. This work aims to bring understanding to the magnitude of hydropower that can be developed, which conditions may lead to more or less development, and to what extent hydropower can play a role in decarbonizing energy systems in Canada.<br>
The objective of this work is to improve how hydropower is represented in an integrated assessment model to better understand its role as a component of energy systems. Model development was conducted using GCAM, the Global Change Analysis Model, but existing versions of this model specified hydropower growth exogenously due to the challenge of supplying the model with good data on resource availability. Having previously developed a capability for endogenous modelling of national hydropower development (Arbuckle et al., 2021), this study refines that work to a finer spatial scale, with regions grouped by river basins in each province and territory. The newly developed model’s electricity generation was calibrated with projections from the Canada Energy Regulator Energy Futures (2020). The model was compared to a suite of other energy system models for electricity system outcomes to assess differences and similarities.<br>
In order to complete this modelling, this study developed a dataset of the regional-scale historical generation of hydropower in Canada, which is necessary for calibration, but also yields insights about local trends that are deeply connected to stories of imperialism,<br>
politics, and self-determination. Additionally, a process was developed to produce estimates of hydropower resource cost and supply for subnational regions in a more comprehensive way than has been done before. This was based on a prior gridded dataset (Zhou et al., 2015) with coverage for the world, allowing extension to other uses. This work revealed a total of 1,859 TWh of hydropower resources are theoretically developable in Canada, approximately five times the generation in 2015 of 378 TWh. However, in practice, most of these resources would cost so much to develop, or are located in such remote locations, that other resources would be exploited first. Further, the resources are heterogeneously distributed throughout Canada.<br>
After model development, scenario analysis was conducted for a range of climate policy ambitions as an application of the new model capabilities. Model results show that Canadian hydropower generation grows in all scenarios, with increasing growth correlating with higher climate policy ambition. Model results identified regions that are more likely to support new growth in hydropower, based on cost and historical factors. British Columbia has substantial remaining potential, while Manitoba and Newfoundland and Labrador may be nearing saturation of economically developable hydropower. In all scenarios, hydropower loses total market share of Canada’s electricity generation, as diversification into other assets like wind and solar power increases. For a net zero scenario, the model showed hydropower generation in Canada may grow from 382 TWh in 2015 to 721 TWh in 2050, with electricity prices increasing about 15% from present levels, after accounting for inflation. Model results also show that in scenarios where Canada seeks higher climate policy ambition than the United States, less new growth may be needed, as Canada can reduce its electricity exports to the United States to reduce pressures on domestic demand growth.</p>