Impact of COVID-19-related disruptions to measles, meningococcal A, and yellow fever vaccination in 10 countries
Creators: name: Gaythorpe, Katy AM
name: Abbas, Kaja
name: Huber, John
name: Karachaliou, Andromachi
name: Thakkar, Niket
name: Woodruff, Kim
name: Li, Xiang
name: Echeverria-Londono, Susy
name: VIMC Working Group On COVID-19 Impact On Vaccine Preventable Disease
name: Ferrari, Matthew
name: Jackson, Michael L
name: McCarthy, Kevin
name: Perkins, T Alex
name: Trotter, Caroline
name: Jit, Mark
name: Arsene, Andre
name: Cutts, Felicity
name: Dansereau, Emily
name: Durupt, Antoine
name: Griffiths, Ulla
name: Horton, Jennifer
name: Krause, Kendall
name: Kretsinger, Katrina
name: Mengistu, Tewodaj
name: Mirza, Imran
name: Procter, Simon R
name: Shendale, Stephanie
Publisher: name: Apollo - University of Cambridge Repository
Year: 2021
Subjects: Research Article
Epidemiology and Global Health
Medicine
vaccination
COVID-19
measles
yellow fever
meningococcal disease
mathematical modelling
Human

description: Background:: Childhood immunisation services have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic. WHO recommends considering outbreak risk using epidemiological criteria when deciding whether to conduct preventive vaccination campaigns during the pandemic. Methods:: We used two to three models per infection to estimate the health impact of 50% reduced routine vaccination coverage in 2020 and delay of campaign vaccination from 2020 to 2021 for measles vaccination in Bangladesh, Chad, Ethiopia, Kenya, Nigeria, and South Sudan, for meningococcal A vaccination in Burkina Faso, Chad, Niger, and Nigeria, and for yellow fever vaccination in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ghana, and Nigeria. Our counterfactual comparative scenario was sustaining immunisation services at coverage projections made prior to COVID-19 (i.e. without any disruption). Results:: Reduced routine vaccination coverage in 2020 without catch-up vaccination may lead to an increase in measles and yellow fever disease burden in the modelled countries. Delaying planned campaigns in Ethiopia and Nigeria by a year may significantly increase the risk of measles outbreaks (both countries did complete their supplementary immunisation activities (SIAs) planned for 2020). For yellow fever vaccination, delay in campaigns leads to a potential disease burden rise of &gt;1 death per 100,000 people per year until the campaigns are implemented. For meningococcal A vaccination, short-term disruptions in 2020 are unlikely to have a significant impact due to the persistence of direct and indirect benefits from past introductory campaigns of the 1- to 29-year-old population, bolstered by inclusion of the vaccine into the routine immunisation schedule accompanied by further catch-up campaigns. Conclusions:: The impact of COVID-19-related disruption to vaccination programs varies between infections and countries. Planning and implementation of campaigns should consider country and infection-specific epidemiological factors and local immunity gaps worsened by the COVID-19 pandemic when prioritising vaccines and strategies for catch-up vaccination. Funding:: Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance.