Additional file 1 of Individually optimal choices can be collectively disastrous in COVID-19 disease control
Creators: name: Stoddard, Madison
name: Van Egeren, Debra
name: Johnson, Kaitlyn E.
name: Rao, Smriti
name: Furgeson, Josh
name: White, Douglas E.
name: Nolan, Ryan P.
name: Hochberg, Natasha
name: Arijit Chakravarty
Publisher: name: figshare
Year: 2021
Subjects: subject: Medicine
subject: Biotechnology
subject: Sociology
subject: FOS: Sociology
subject: FOS: Sociology
subject: 69999 Biological Sciences not elsewhere classified
subject: FOS: Biological sciences
subject: FOS: Biological sciences
subject: 80699 Information Systems not elsewhere classified
subject: FOS: Computer and information sciences
subject: FOS: Computer and information sciences
subject: 110309 Infectious Diseases
subject: FOS: Health sciences
subject: FOS: Health sciences

description: Additional file 1: Table S1. COVID-19 Death Risk Assessment for South Dakota in August 2020. Table S2. COVID-19 Death Risk Assessment for South Dakota in November 2020. Figure S1. The marginal cost of noncompliance is highest as complete suppression is approached. Millions of additional yearly US cases per 1% reduction in compliance, as a function of the fraction of noncompliant individuals in the population for an intervention that is (A) 50% effective, (B) 70% effective, (C) 90% effective, or (D) 95% effective. Figure S2. Attainability of complete suppression depends on R0 and effectiveness of the intervention. Yearly US cases as a function of compliance for hypothetical scenarios in which R0 = 2, 3, 4 or 5.7. Figure S3. Duration of natural immunity impacts yearly disease burden but not the compliance threshold for complete suppression. Yearly predicted US cases at steady-state under a range of assumptions about the duration of natural immunity. Figure S4. Association between loose-tight score and COVID-19 cases per capita [7]. There is a weak association with loose-tight cultures and total case count observed based on reported case counts as of October. Figure S5. Complement to Fig. 2, with simulated 6-month duration of natural immunity. Panels A and D represent the fraction of the population, including both compliant and noncompliant individuals, that is susceptible, exposed, infectious, and recovered populations over time after a return to pre-pandemic conditions under (A-C) 95% compliance or (D-F) 50% compliance with a 50% effective intervention. Panels B and E demonstrate the fraction of compliant and noncompliant individuals who are infected over time. Panels C and F demonstrate the cumulative hazard ratio for infection in noncompliant versus compliant individuals. Figure S6. Complement to Fig. 3, with simulated 6-month duration of natural immunity. Total US COVID-19 infections in the next year under interventions with varying efficacy and compliance. Black box on panel A delineates region expanded in panel B. Total US infections in panel B are displayed on a log scale. Figure S7. Complement to Fig. 4, with simulated 6-month duration of natural immunity. Cumulative infections per individual under a 50% or 90% effective intervention. Three scenarios are simulated: full noncompliance, full compliance, and 70% compliance (with outcomes for compliant and noncompliant individuals shown). Figure S8. Complement to Fig. 5, with simulated 6-month duration of natural immunity. Yearly US cases at steady-state under interventions with varying degrees of efficacy and compliance. Figure S9. Complement to Figure S2, with simulated 6-month duration of natural immunity. Yearly US cases as a function of compliance for hypothetical scenarios in which R0 = 2, 3, 4 or 5.7. Figure S10. Complement to Fig. 2, with simulated 36-month duration of natural immunity. Panels A and D represent the fraction of the population, including both compliant and noncompliant individuals, that is susceptible, exposed, infectious, and recovered populations over time after a return to pre-pandemic conditions under (A-C) 95% compliance or (D-F) 50% compliance with a 50% effective intervention. Panels B and E demonstrate the fraction of compliant and noncompliant individuals who are infected over time. Panels C and F demonstrate the cumulative hazard ratio for infection in noncompliant versus compliant individuals. Figure S11. Complement to Fig. 3, with simulated 36-month duration of natural immunity. Total US COVID-19 infections in the next year under interventions with varying efficacy and compliance. Black box on panel A shows region expanded in panel B. Panel B is displayed on a log scale. Figure S12. Complement to Fig. 4, with simulated 36-month duration of natural immunity. Cumulative average number of times infected (including reinfections) per individual under a 50% (A) or 90% (B) effective intervention. Three scenarios are simulated: full noncompliance, full compliance, and 70% compliance (with outcomes for compliant and noncompliant individuals shown). Figure S13. Complement to Fig. 5, with simulated 36-month duration of natural immunity. Yearly US cases at steady-state under interventions with varying degrees of efficacy and compliance. Figure S14. Complement to Figure S2, with simulated 36-month duration of natural immunity. Yearly US cases as a function of compliance for hypothetical scenarios in which R0 = 2, 3, 4 or 5.7.