Appendices 4A, 5A, 7B for the thesis "Belief-based probabilistic methods and serious games for landslides: A case study in the Darjeeling Himalayas, India"
Creators: name: Choudhury, Shreyasi
Publisher: name: Zenodo
Year: 2023

description: Four database shown here are additional material for the thesis titled ‘Belief-based probabilistic methods and serious games for landslides: A case study in the Darjeeling Himalayas, India’. A fuller description of the thesis is given below. 



 Appendix 4A. 39 peer-reviewed articles published from 1990 – 2021 (inclusive) identified using a step-by-step process described in Section 4.3.1 (Methodology to create the evidence database) and also shown in Figure 4.2 (Flowchart for publication selection for expert elicitation-based natural hazard studies). The 39 peer-reviewed articles were characterised by: study location, hazard assessed, elicitation protocol, research aim, uncertainty quantification, confrontation of results, comparison of expert elicitation results with other types of evidence), generalizability of methods (theoretical or practical), number of experts used for each study reviewed, year of publication, and the accessibility to the questions asked to the experts.

 Appendix 5A. 30 target questions on 19 parameters asked to experts for probabilistic judgement as a part of the elicitation procedure. The design and execution of the elicitation procedure is explained in Sections 5.1 – 5.3. Experts were asked for the low, best and high estimates along with their confidence interval for the probability of occurrence of the variable in question and then the probability of a landslide being influenced or triggered due to the variable in question.

 Appendix 7B. Appendix is a database of 22 serious games (names in Column B). The database first lists the review paper from where the game was identified (column C), the number of players required to play the game (Column D) and the game URL in Column E. The procedure for identifying the games is given in Section 7.3.1.b (Evaluating serious games on disaster risk) and for scoring the games is given in Sections 7.3.2.d -7.3.2.e. This database was created to (1) identify the indicators (or evaluation criteria) for three risk elements -- hazard (Column F-G), vulnerability (Column I-J), and exposure (Column L-M) – along with uncertainty (Column O-Q); (2) deduce the scores of the games by employing the evaluation criteria on 22 games. Individual scores for vulnerability, exposure, hazard and exposure are given in Columns H, K, N, Q and the total score is given in Columns R -S.


Description of the thesis:

The thesis contributes to the field of landslide hazard assessment and risk communication in data-poor regions by integrating local knowledge with the academic and scientific expertise. Experts in this thesis are considered as informed individuals with in-depth experience on landslides or the Darjeeling Himalayas, but who may not have an academic background on the subject matter. Thus, experts included professionals such as scientists or employees of governmental agencies, and experienced citizens of the Darjeeling Himalayas (e.g., a layperson with local knowledge).

The thesis identifies 114 anthropogenic and environmental factors influencing or triggering landslides in the Darjeeling Himalayas, India by using literature reviews and expert interviews. From the 114, 21 anthropogenic and environmental factors are selected to create a hazard influence network diagram. This network diagram forms the basis for conducting expert elicitation procedure to understand the importance of human actions along with the environmental conditions for occurrence of landslides in the Darjeeling Himalayas, India. 

Prior to conducting the expert elicitation, a critical review of the expert elicitation literature on natural hazard assessments is conducted and several gaps in the existing literature are identified. Then the expert elicitation procedure, namely the IDEA protocol, is employed (questions shown in Appendix 5A) to obtain probabilistic estimates on the relationship between the 21 variables and landslide occurrence. Analysis of the probabilistic estimates in conjunction with the qualitative data (transcriptions from the elicitation procedure) revealed the biases and emphasized the potential of expert inputs in mitigating data paucity. A Bayesian belief network (BBN) was established, incorporating expert judgments to enhance landslide hazard assessment, especially in the absence of empirical data. 

The knowledge gained from the interviews during the elicitation procedure, a critical review of 48 existing serious games on ‘natural’ disaster risks and further expert interviews regarding the landslide hazard management challenges informed the design and development of "The Landslide Game," a prototype emphasizing collaborative decision-making and community engagement. 22 existing serious games are also compared based on a scoring system devised using the hazard, vulnerability, exposure and uncertainty elements incorporated in the games (Appendix 7B). 

The contributions of this thesis lie in the applicability of the framework for identifying and applying anthropogenic variables with environmental conditions, the potential of expert elicitation in data-poor regions, the advancement of BBN modeling, and the innovative approach to serious game design for landslide risk communication.