PhD Dissertation
Creators: name: Cottineau, Clémentine
Publisher: name: figshare
Year: 2015
Subjects: Geography

description: PhD Dissertation : <em>The evolution of cities in the post-Soviet Space. Observation and modellings</em>. Under the supervision of Denise Pumain, University Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne. UMR Géographie-cités. Public defense on November 21st, 2014. <em>Cum laude</em> <strong><br></strong> <strong>Summary :</strong> The Russian and Soviet urbanisation process happened late and fast, compared to other territories. Many new towns and cities were created by the Soviet regime that officially promoted discourses about the socialist function of the city, rational organisation of space and a planned management of the economy. These urban particularities and the multiple demographic and political events of the 20th century have made cities in the post-Soviet space an interesting case and raised question regarding its ruptures and comparability. This dissertation thesis aims to show that the concept of system of cities and generic methods in urban geography (especially models) are useful in the study of urban evolution over the long term in this space, to eventually better understand past trends and predict future ones. We confronted several statistical models with the observed urban dynamics and concluded that the macro-geographical structure of cities in the post-Soviet space was comparable to that of other systems of cities (hierarchy of sizes, spacing, functional differentiation). We also observed specific trajectories related to the size of the territory, natural resources, the recent demographic shrinkage and the effect of particular political decisions. This knowledge about observed evolutions has been included in an incremental approach of agent-based modeling. Starting from theoretical hypotheses about generative mechanisms, we tried to generate generic and specific stylised facts, with a model as parsimonious as possible. The progressive evaluation of increasingly complex models led to the satisfactory simulation of observed urban evolution and highlighted specific trajectories that « resist » modeling. <strong>Résumé:</strong> L’urbanisation russe et soviétique a été tardive et accélérée, en comparaison d’autres ensembles territoriaux ; un grand nombre de villes nouvelles ont été créées par le régime soviétique qui a promu officiellement un discours sur la fonction socialiste de la ville, l’organisation rationnelle de l’espace et la gestion planifiée de l’économie. Ces particularités urbaines et les multiples événements démographiques et politiques du XXe siècle font des villes de l’espace post-soviétique un ensemble qui pose question quant à sa comparabilité et à ses ruptures. Cette thèse vise à montrer que l’on peut appliquer le concept de système de villes et les méthodes générales de la géographie urbaine (notamment les modèles) pour rendre compte de l’évolution urbaine dans l’espace post- soviétique à long terme, c’est-à-dire mieux comprendre cette évolution et éventuellement prédire des tendances à venir. Nous avons confronté plusieurs modèles statistiques avec la dynamique urbaine observée et montré que la structure macro-géographique des villes était comparable à celle d’autres systèmes de villes (hiérarchie des tailles, espacement, différenciation fonctionnelle). On a aussi observé des trajectoires particulières liées à la dimension du territoire, ses ressources naturelles, sa dynamique démographique récente et diverses décisions politiques. La connaissance des évolutions observées a été intégrée dans une démarche incrémentale de simulation multi-agents qui vise, à partir d’hypothèses théoriques sur les mécanismes générateurs de l’évolution observée, à reproduire des faits stylisés généraux et particuliers, le plus parcimonieusement possible. L’évaluation progressive de modèles de plus en plus complexes a abouti à une simulation satisfaisante des évolutions urbaines observées et mis en valeur les trajectoires les plus particulières qui « résistent » à la modélisation. <strong>Mots-clés</strong> : Système de villes, Espace post-soviétique, Modèle, Général/Particulier, Simulation, Évolution urbaine