Report on the calibration and validation of hindcasts and forecasts of total water level along European coasts, Deliverable 4.1 - ECFAS project (GA 101004211), www.ecfas.eu
Creators: name: Melet, A.
name: Irazoqui, M.
name: Fernandez-Montblanc, T.
name: Ciavola, P.
Publisher: name: Zenodo
Year: 2021
Subjects: forecasts of total water level at the coast
forecasts of wind waves
hindcasts of total water levels
evaluation of ocean and wave models
tide gauges
Copernicus Marine Service
storm surges

description: The European Copernicus Coastal Flood Awareness System (ECFAS) project aimed at contributing to the evolution of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service (https://emergency.copernicus.eu/) by demonstrating the technical and operational feasibility of a European Coastal Flood Awareness System. Specifically, ECFAS provides a much-needed solution to bolster coastal resilience to climate risk and reduce population and infrastructure exposure by monitoring and supporting disaster preparedness, two factors that are fundamental to damage prevention and recovery if a storm hits.
The ECFAS Proof-of-Concept development ran from January 2021 to December 2022. The ECFAS project was a collaboration between Scuola Universitaria Superiore IUSS di Pavia (Italy, ECFAS Coordinator), Mercator Ocean International (France), Planetek Hellas (Greece), Collecte Localisation Satellites (France), Consorzio Futuro in Ricerca (Italy), Universitat Politecnica de Valencia (Spain), University of the Aegean (Greece), and EurOcean (Portugal), and was funded by the European Commission H2020 Framework Programme within the call LC-SPACE-18-EO-2020 - Copernicus evolution: research activities in support of the evolution of the Copernicus services. 
Description of the product
In ECFAS, forecasts of total water levels (TWL) at the coast can trigger the rapid mapping of coastal floods of the ECFAS awareness system when they exceed pre-identified local thresholds of total water levels. To define these local thresholds of TWL along the European coastline, a joint analysis of a hindcast of past TWL (extreme value analysis) and of past coastal flooding events is needed. Forecasts of TWL are thus the first building block of the ECFAS awareness system, and condition the activation of the awareness system. 
The present document reports on the production, calibration and validation of the numerical-model-based forecasts and hindcasts of TWL at the coast that are underpinning the warning component of the ECFAS proof-of-concept. The skill assessment of the forecasts and hindcasts of TWL will inform on the expected skills of the ECFAS proof-of-concept, as they condition the activation of the ECFAS proof-of-concept.
Reference literature:
Irazoqui Apecechea M., Melet A. and Armaroli C. (2023): Towards a pan-European coastal flood awareness system: Skill of extreme sea-level forecasts from the Copernicus Marine Service. Frontiers in Marine Science 9:1091844. doi: https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2022.1091844
Disclaimer:
ECFAS partners provide the data "as is" and "as available" without warranty of any kind. The ECFAS partners shall not be held liable resulting from the use of the information and data provided.
This project has received funding from the Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No. 101004211