D4.10 Socioeconomic Study
Creators: name: Kandrot, Sarah
name: Cummins, Val
name: Jordan, Declan
Publisher: name: Zenodo
Year: 2020
Subjects: offshore wind
ireland
socioeconomic

description: With over 12GW of offshore wind energy at various stages of planning, Ireland is on the cusp of a renewable energy boom. Given the size of offshore wind projects, there is great potential for the sector to deliver considerable environmental, social, and economic benefits to Irish society in the coming years. This study, part of the Eirwind project, explores the socioeconomic opportunity associated with the development of the offshore wind sector for Ireland. It focuses on three key areas - job creation, economic value, and regional development potential. The outputs can be used to inform policy and strategies for sectoral development in order to maximise the socioeconomic benefits of offshore wind development and minimise or avoid potentially negative impacts on stakeholders. The study uses qualitative and quantitative research methods to assess the value of offshore wind for Ireland. It builds on previous research to give a contemporary appraisal of the direct and indirect domestic job creation and gross value added (GVA) impact in the coming years. Projections are derived from an economic model that was developed as part of this study. Two scenarios were modelled, one assuming an installed capacity of 2.5GW by 2030 and one assuming 4.5GW by 2030, with 25% of installed capacity from floating wind from 2026. The approach to this modelling – a value chain analysis – was selected as it is more accessible and transparent than traditional methods, such as input-output (IO) modelling, and the model can be updated under changing market conditions. Many previous estimates of the employment impacts associated with offshore wind development are outdated or lack transparency in their methods and are difficult to compare with one another, and therefore verify, due to differences in underlying assumptions. This is the first study to quantify the GVA impact of offshore wind development for Ireland. <strong>Key findings of this report suggest that in 2030, 2.5-4.5GW of domestic offshore wind development would support between 4,620 and 8,316 jobs in the domestic supply chain and generate between €325m and €585m in GVA. </strong>This equates to between 11,424 and 20,563 person years of employment and €763m and €1.4bn in gross value added for the period 2020-2029. This is a conservative estimate, as it does not take into account induced effects from personal expenditure of the labour force. <strong>If the scenarios modelled in this study were to be realised and current trends for other ocean economy sectors were to remain constant, direct and indirect GVA from offshore wind development could exceed that of the marine advanced technology products and services sector, the marine manufacturing, construction and engineering sector, the sea fisheries sector and marine retail services sector by 2030. </strong> This would contribute significantly to Ireland’s Harnessing Our Ocean Wealth target of doubling the value of Ireland’s ocean economy by 2030 (Inter-Departmental Marine Coordination Group, 2012). The potential economic impacts of the recent and ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, which are not yet well understood due to the fast changing nature of the situation, have not been factored into this research, but are recognised in this report. Offshore wind could play a key role in the post-COVID economic recovery by stimulating growth and creating jobs, and several EU state ministers have called for integrating the green transition in the European recovery plan. In addition to the economic modelling, research was undertaken to explore ways in which Ireland can maximise the socioeconomic benefits of offshore wind development, including domestic job creation and the growth of indigenous goods and services, and minimise or avoid potentially negative impacts. A demographic assessment of the areas around ports with capabilities or potential capabilities in offshore wind reveals <strong>offshore wind development, and the development of an offshore wind supply chain, could be an effective means for addressing Ireland’s regional economic imbalance and associated issues, such as rural depopulation and the decline of coastal communities.</strong> A qualitative review of the experiences in countries with experience in offshore wind highlights lessons that can be learned from elsewhere with regard to the impacts of offshore wind on local communities, tourism, fisheries, and other industries. The report concludes with a number of recommendations, based on the research, for maximising the socioeconomic benefits of offshore wind development. Specifically, these address trends in social deprivation and the unequal distribution of economic opportunities across the island, particularly around ports on the south and west coasts. These recommendations include: <em>Create an offshore wind supply chain stimulus package</em> <em>Invest in port infrastructure to support</em> <em>manufacturing (e.g. at Shannon-Foynes, Waterford, Rosslare, and Killybegs), </em> <em>staging (e.g. at Shannon-Foynes, Waterford, Rosslare, and Killybegs), and </em> <em>O&amp;M (e.g. at Shannon-Foynes, Waterford, Rosslare, Killybegs, New Ross, Rossaveal, and Fenit/Tralee)</em> <em>Take a strategic approach to development of regional clusters around ports in preparation for the next wave of projects on the south and west coasts</em> <em>Support R&amp;D and the development of skills training programmes</em>