Assessing the trend of China’s rise (1979-2022): an analysis based on the classical geopolitics
Creators: name: Zhang, Ziyi
Publisher: name: No Publisher Supplied
Year: 2024

description: In the recent decade (2010-2022), several geopolitical events have been closely related to China’s rise, such as ‘the Pivot to Asia’ and ‘the Indo-Pacific Strategy.’ Meanwhile, there were enormous discussions globally regarding China’s rise, primarily focusing on whether China’s rise will be peaceful or not. After analyzing discourses related to China’s rise from perspectives of international relations and geopolitics, this study adopts qualitative and quantitative research methods to develop an analytical framework for assessing the trend of China’s rise. The analytical framework provides a ternary worldview that the world is divided into three parts: the part of the Eurasia continent, the part of the sea, and the part of the outer/insular crescent. China is one of the actors in the part of the Eurasia continent. Then, this research adopts three case studies at three different levels (domestic, regional, and global) and reaches three points: one, China’s rise is peace-oriented; two, China’s rise was generally peaceful between 1979 and 2022: first, 1979-2010: China’s rise was peaceful; second, 2010-2022: China’s rise was less peaceful than that of 1979-2010; third, in the future, China’s peaceful rise is more likely to be interrupted by the outside world or halted by China itself; three, although none of the major theoretical schools offer a flawless explanation for China’s rise, China’s rise is closer to the liberal perspective regarding economic interdependence than the realist perspective. Then, to assess the trend of China’s rise, this research revisits three case studies from the perspective of the analytical framework and reaches two conclusions: first, the classical geopolitical theories still have significant value for understanding contemporary international relations in the 21st century; second, China’s rise and return to the world’s No.1 in terms of GDP is expected to occur within the coming decades, and it is also a symbol of an actor in the part of the Eurasia continent, for the first-time overcoming actors in the part of the outer/insular crescent in terms of GDP in the recent 200 years in human history. However, whether China could realize a peaceful rise in the future depends not only on China but also on the outside world, especially the United States (U.S.), which is currently the world’s existed key global hegemon and superpower. As China’s maritime capabilities grow rapidly and close to those of the U.S., the U.S. will see China’s rise as a vast and urgent threat to the foundation of U.S. global hegemony. In the meantime, conflicts, disputes, and frictions between China and the U.S. are likely to intensify near the point of equilibrium. This is the stage of China’s rise now and for some time to come. Keywords: China’s Rise, Classical Geopolitics, Global Development, International Security, Economic Interdependence
description: 最近十余年（2010-2022），数个地缘政治事件与中国崛起密切相关，例如‘亚太再平衡’和‘印度-太平洋战略’。与此同时，围绕中国崛起的讨论在全球广泛进行，主要聚焦于中国的崛起将会是和平的或是非和平的。在从国际关系和地缘政治学的视角，对与中国崛起相关的论述进行分析后，本研究采用定性研究方法和定量研究方法发展出了一个分析框架，以评估中国崛起的趋势。这个分析框架提供了一个三元世界观，即世界被分成三个部分：欧亚大陆部分、海洋部分和外层/海岛边缘地带部分。中国是位于欧亚大陆部分的其中一个角色。接着，此研究选取了位于三个不同层级（本地级、区域级和全球级）的案例进行分析，并得到了三点：第一，中国崛起是以和平为导向的；第二，中国的崛起在1979年至2022年期间是总体和平的：一，1979-2010：中国崛起是和平的；二，2010-2022：相较1979-2010，中国崛起的和平程度减少；三，在未来，中国的和平崛起更可能被外部世界打断或由中国自己中止；第三，虽然没有任何一个主要的理论学派能够完美无瑕地解释中国的崛起，但是，相较国际关系现实主义学派的观点，中国崛起更接近于国际关系自由主义学派中的经济相互依存的观点。接着，为了评估中国崛起的趋势，本研究从分析框架的视角，再次回顾了三个案例并得到了两项结论：第一，在21世纪，古典地缘政治理论依然对理解现代国际关系有显著的价值；第二，中国的崛起以及重新成为以国内生产总值计量的世界第一的国家，预期将会在即将到来的数十年内实现，并且，这也象征着在最近200年的人类历史中，一个位于欧亚大陆部分的角色，第一次在国内生产总值上超越位于外层/海岛边缘地带部分的众角色。然而，中国是否能够在未来实现和平的崛起不仅依赖于中国，也取决于外部世界，特别是作为当今世界现存的关键霸权和超级大国的美国。随着中国在海洋上的能力的快速增长，并接近美国在海洋上的能力，美国将视中国的崛起，是对美国的全球霸权的基础的一项巨大且急迫的威胁。与此同时，中国与美国之间的冲突、争端和摩擦可能会在均衡点附近加剧。这是中国崛起在当下和未来一段时间所处的阶段。 关键词：中国崛起、古典地缘政治学、全球发展、国际安全、经济相互依存