title: ÐÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ðµ ÑÐ¸Ð½Ð°Ð½ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð¾Ð¹ ÑÑÑÐ¾Ð¹ÑÐ¸Ð²Ð¾ÑÑÐ¸ ÐºÐ¾Ð¼Ð¼ÐµÑÑÐµÑÐºÐ¾Ð³Ð¾ Ð±Ð°Ð½ÐºÐ°
title: Ð²ÑÐ¿ÑÑÐºÐ½Ð°Ñ ÐºÐ²Ð°Ð»Ð¸ÑÐ¸ÐºÐ°ÑÐ¸Ð¾Ð½Ð½Ð°Ñ ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÐ° Ð¼Ð°Ð³Ð¸ÑÑÑÐ°
titleType: Subtitle
title: Forecasting the financial stability of a commercial bank
Creators: name: ÐÐ¾Ð³Ð´Ð°Ð½Ð¾Ð²Ð°, ÐÐ¾Ð»Ð¸Ð½Ð°
Publisher: name: Ð¡Ð°Ð½ÐºÑ-ÐÐµÑÐµÑÐ±ÑÑÐ³ÑÐºÐ¸Ð¹ Ð¿Ð¾Ð»Ð¸ÑÐµÑÐ½Ð¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¸Ð¹ ÑÐ½Ð¸Ð²ÐµÑÑÐ¸ÑÐµÑ ÐÐµÑÑÐ° ÐÐµÐ»Ð¸ÐºÐ¾Ð³Ð¾
Year: 2025
Subjects: Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ðµ
Ð±Ð°Ð½Ðº
ÑÐ¸Ð½Ð°Ð½ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ñ ÑÑÑÐ¾Ð¹ÑÐ¸Ð²Ð¾ÑÑÑ
forecasting
banking
financial stability

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description: The relevance of research. Over the past 10 years, more than six hundred and fifty banks have stopped operating in Russia, despite their high financial stability, and the Deposit Insurance Agencys fund has been exhausted. A lot of companies that negotiated with credit institutions that lost their licenses lost money. In this regard, the question arises about the suitability of methods for assessing the financial stability of banks, which determines the relevance of scientific work in this area. As a result of the work, the authors model of forecasting the financial stability of a commercial bank was developed. The first chapter of the graduation thesis provides an overview of the theoretical foundations of the banks financial stability: the concept of the banks financial stability is investigated; the factors of the banks financial stability are identified; the classification of methods for predicting the banks financial stability is described. The second chapter analyzes methodological approaches to assessing the financial stability of a bank: coefficient analysis, discriminant analysis, logistic analysis and other assessment methods are analyzed, and comparative characteristics are carried out. The analysis was carried out using specialized software (Microsoft Office Excel). In the third chapter, a predictive logistic model of bank bankruptcy is developed: the features of using logit models in economics are revealed; the process of modeling bank bankruptcy is described; the authors predictive logistic model of bankruptcy based on the CRISP-DM methodology is developed; the effectiveness of the developed model is evaluated.