Species persistence and climatic stability have shaped plant communities of the Atlantic forest biodiversity hotspot
Creators: name: Esser, Luíz F.
name: Neves, Danilo
name: Jarenkow, João A.
Publisher: name: Taylor & Francis
Year: 2024
Subjects: subject: Genetics
subject: FOS: Biological sciences
subject: Sociology
subject: FOS: Sociology
subject: Environmental Sciences not elsewhere classified
subject: Ecology
subject: Science Policy
subject: Infectious Diseases
subject: FOS: Health sciences
subject: Plant Biology

description: The remarkable floristic diversity of the Atlantic Forest is partly related to the diversity of environmental conditions across its vast geographic extent that has resulted in distinct plant communities. Four areas (Pernambuco, Bahia and Northern Espírito Santo, São Paulo, and Araguaia-Tocantins refugia) have been hypothesised to have particularly high modern diversity due to their being located in areas of multi-millennial climate stability. To test if species persistence and climatic stability over the last 21,000 years can predict hypothesised refugia in the Atlantic Forest domain. We modelled the distributions of 282 tree species from various habitats and projected them using eight past climate scenarios in the last c. 21000 years. Based on the spatial overlaps among these projections, we inferred three types of refugia: species persistence refugium based on probability of occurrence, climatic stability refugium based on climate suitability and bioclimatic refugium based on the intersection of the previous two. We validated model projections with fossil pollen data. We identified five potential bioclimatic refugia (Bahia and Northern Espírito Santo, São Paulo, Paranaíba, Serra do Espinhaço and Subtropical Serra do Mar) and one climatic stability refugium (Pernambuco). We validated three of four previously hypothesised refugia and detected two additional ones by considering both species persistence and climatic stability as key determinants of refugia. Conservation policies are needed to protect areas of refugia in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, named: (1) Pernambuco bioclimatic refugium, (2) Bahia and Northern Espírito Santo bioclimatic refugium, (3) São Paulo bioclimatic refugium, (4) Paranaiba bioclimatic refugium, (5) Serra do Espinhaço bioclimatic refugium and (6) Subtropical Serra do Mar bioclimatic refugium;Financing studies with focus in determining refugia extension and understanding the region’s dynamics is key to promote the sustainability of ecosystem services in face of climate change;Promoting restoration strategies in regions considered as refugia can help sustain habitats. Conservation policies are needed to protect areas of refugia in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, named: (1) Pernambuco bioclimatic refugium, (2) Bahia and Northern Espírito Santo bioclimatic refugium, (3) São Paulo bioclimatic refugium, (4) Paranaiba bioclimatic refugium, (5) Serra do Espinhaço bioclimatic refugium and (6) Subtropical Serra do Mar bioclimatic refugium; Financing studies with focus in determining refugia extension and understanding the region’s dynamics is key to promote the sustainability of ecosystem services in face of climate change; Promoting restoration strategies in regions considered as refugia can help sustain habitats.