FEDECOM - D3.2 - Techno-economic assessment.pdf
Creators: name: Ghuys, Nicolas
name: Limpens, Gauthier
name: Pavicevic, Matija
name: Md Nasimul Islam, Maruf
name: Mahmud, Shadman
name: Diedrich, Hannes
name: Tzavikas, Spyridon
name: Trbovich, Ana
Publisher: name: FEDECOM
Year: 2024

description: This report investigates potential investment strategies for enhancing decarbonation of community energy systems, focusing on the FEDECOM pilot sites across Europe. Using a range of open-source models, our analysis explores optimising the design of these systems as well as their operability on an hourly basis. The study spans multiple national contexts and considers various technological and economic scenarios, providing a quantified and comprehensive outlook on future possibilities.

The EnergyScope model sets the stage by framing the national energy contexts of Spain, Switzerland, and Belgium. It evaluates scenarios for reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 55% to 95% compared to 2015 levels. Key findings reveal significant variations across countries; for instance, Belgium could reduce its primary energy consumption by up to 33% through efficiency improvements, while Spain could competitively integrate 94% of endogenous renewable resources in its primary energy mix. Belgium’s limited capacity for renewable energy, capped at 44% of its primary energy mix, underscores a reliance on imported energies, especially high-cost electro-fuels imports, illustrating the nuanced challenges each country faces in its path towards low-emissions.

Building on the national frameworks, the Renewable Energy Hub Optimiser (REHO) model explores investment strategies at community level in Spain, Switzerland, and the Netherlands, regions where renewable energy infrastructure is notably advanced. The analysis reaffirms the economic viability of enhancing photovoltaic (PV) systems, advocating for their maximisation given existing tariff structures. In evaluating different system designs—current, planned, and optimal—calibration results confirm REHO’s precision in modelling district-level energy consumption, validating its application for both existing and prospective configurations. The introduction of new technologies led to an average capital expenditure (CAPEX) increase of 19%, offset by operational expense (OPEX) reductions of 23%, thereby maintaining  stable total expenditures (TOTEX). These improvements, while significant, yielded a modest reduction in external electricity imports by 16%, reflecting the high initial level of renewable integration. Nevertheless, these enhancements increase community self-sufficiency to an impressive average of 80%.

The Dispa-SET model extends our analysis to the operability of these systems with high penetration of intermittent renewables. Across 21 scenarios, we observe significant opportunities and challenges in optimising grid dependency and managing energy supply. For example, innovative solutions such as district batteries and heat pump installations have demonstrated potential to reduce grid reliance significantly. This segment of the study points to the critical role of storage and flexible demand solutions in stabilising community energy systems amidst high renewable integration.

Finally, the GSY model's exploration of peer-to-peer (P2P) energy trading within communities offers promising insights. Simulations indicate that decentralised energy trading can drastically reduce community electricity bills by 45% and decrease grid imports by 42% during periods of high solar generation. These findings highlight the transformative potential of local energy markets in enhancing community resilience and self-sufficiency.

Overall, our investigation reveals that the adoption of community-level energy systems, supported by appropriate technological and policy frameworks, can significantly enhance sustainability and economic viability. These systems not only reduce operational costs and CO2 emissions but also increase energy self-sufficiency, reinforcing the importance of strategic investments in renewable technologies and the development of supportive regulatory environments.