title: ÐÑÐ¾ÐµÐºÑ Ð²Ð½ÐµÐ´ÑÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÑÐ¸ÑÑÐµÐ¼Ñ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ ÑÐ¿ÑÐ¾ÑÐ° Ð½Ð° Ð¿ÑÐµÐ´Ð¿ÑÐ¸ÑÑÐ¸Ð¸ ÑÑÐµÑÑ ÑÑÐ»ÑÐ³ "ÐÐ²ÑÐ¾Ð¼Ð¾Ð±Ð¸Ð»ÑÐ½ÑÐ¹ Ð¤Ð°Ð±ÐÐ°Ð±"
title: Ð²ÑÐ¿ÑÑÐºÐ½Ð°Ñ ÐºÐ²Ð°Ð»Ð¸ÑÐ¸ÐºÐ°ÑÐ¸Ð¾Ð½Ð½Ð°Ñ ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÐ° Ð±Ð°ÐºÐ°Ð»Ð°Ð²ÑÐ°
titleType: Subtitle
title: Project for the implementation of a demand forecasting system at a service enterprise "Automotive FabLab"
Creators: name: Ð¢Ð¾Ð¼Ð¸Ð»Ð¾Ð²Ð°, ÐÐ»ÐµÐ½Ð°
Publisher: name: Ð¡Ð°Ð½ÐºÑ-ÐÐµÑÐµÑÐ±ÑÑÐ³ÑÐºÐ¸Ð¹ Ð¿Ð¾Ð»Ð¸ÑÐµÑÐ½Ð¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¸Ð¹ ÑÐ½Ð¸Ð²ÐµÑÑÐ¸ÑÐµÑ ÐÐµÑÑÐ° ÐÐµÐ»Ð¸ÐºÐ¾Ð³Ð¾
Year: 2023
Subjects: Ð¼Ð¾Ð´ÐµÐ»Ñ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ ÑÐ¿ÑÐ¾ÑÐ°
Ð²ÑÐµÐ¼ÐµÐ½Ð½Ð¾Ð¹ ÑÑÐ´
Ð¸Ð½ÑÐ¾ÑÐ¼Ð°ÑÐ¸Ð¾Ð½Ð½Ð°Ñ ÑÐ¸ÑÑÐµÐ¼Ð°
ÑÑÐµÑÐ° ÑÑÐ»ÑÐ³
ÑÐµÑ Ð½Ð¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¾Ðµ Ð·Ð°Ð´Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ðµ
Ð¼ÐµÑÐ¾Ð´Ñ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ ÑÐ¿ÑÐ¾ÑÐ°
demand forecast model
time series
information system
services sector
technical task
demand forecasting methods

description: Ð¢ÐµÐ¼Ð° Ð²ÑÐ¿ÑÑÐºÐ½Ð¾Ð¹ ÐºÐ²Ð°Ð»Ð¸ÑÐ¸ÐºÐ°ÑÐ¸Ð¾Ð½Ð½Ð¾Ð¹ ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÑ: Â«ÐÑÐ¾ÐµÐºÑ Ð²Ð½ÐµÐ´ÑÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÑÐ¸ÑÑÐµÐ¼Ñ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ ÑÐ¿ÑÐ¾ÑÐ° Ð½Ð° Ð¿ÑÐµÐ´Ð¿ÑÐ¸ÑÑÐ¸Ð¸ ÑÑÐµÑÑ ÑÑÐ»ÑÐ³ Â«ÐÐ²ÑÐ¾Ð¼Ð¾Ð±Ð¸Ð»ÑÐ½ÑÐ¹ Ð¤Ð°Ð±ÐÐ°Ð±Â»Â». Ð¦ÐµÐ»ÑÑ ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÑ ÑÐ²Ð»ÑÐµÑÑÑ ÑÐ»ÑÑÑÐµÐ½Ð¸Ðµ ÑÐµÐºÑÑÐµÐ³Ð¾ Ð¿ÑÐ¾ÑÐµÑÑÐ° Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ ÑÐ¿ÑÐ¾ÑÐ° Ð½Ð° Ð¿ÑÐµÐ´Ð¿ÑÐ¸ÑÑÐ¸Ð¸ ÑÑÐµÑÑ ÑÑÐ»ÑÐ³ Ð·Ð° ÑÑÐµÑ Ð²Ð½ÐµÐ´ÑÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ Ð¸Ð½ÑÐ¾ÑÐ¼Ð°ÑÐ¸Ð¾Ð½Ð½Ð¾Ð¹ ÑÐ¸ÑÑÐµÐ¼Ñ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ ÑÐ¿ÑÐ¾ÑÐ°, ÑÐ¿Ð¾ÑÐ¾Ð±ÑÑÐ²ÑÑÑÐµÐ³Ð¾ Ð¿Ð¾Ð²ÑÑÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐºÐ¾Ð½ÐºÑÑÐµÐ½ÑÐ¾ÑÐ¿Ð¾ÑÐ¾Ð±Ð½Ð¾ÑÑÐ¸ Ð¿ÑÐµÐ´Ð¿ÑÐ¸ÑÑÐ¸Ñ ÐÐ°Ð´Ð°ÑÐ¸, ÐºÐ¾ÑÐ¾ÑÑÐµ ÑÐµÑÐ°Ð»Ð¸ÑÑ Ð² ÑÐ¾Ð´Ðµ ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÑ: 1. ÐÐ½Ð°Ð»Ð¸Ð· ÑÑÑÐµÑÑÐ²ÑÑÑÐ¸Ñ Ð¼ÐµÑÐ¾Ð´Ð¾Ð² Ð¸ Ð¼Ð¾Ð´ÐµÐ»ÐµÐ¹ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ ÑÐ¿ÑÐ¾ÑÐ°, Ð² ÑÐ°ÑÑÐ½Ð¾ÑÑÐ¸, Ð¸ Ð´Ð»Ñ Ð¿ÑÐµÐ´Ð¿ÑÐ¸ÑÑÐ¸Ð¹ ÑÑÐµÑÑ ÑÑÐ»ÑÐ³; 2. ÐÐ½Ð°Ð»Ð¸Ð· ÑÐµÐºÑÑÐµÐ³Ð¾ ÑÐ¾ÑÑÐ¾ÑÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÑÑÐ½ÐºÐ° Ð°Ð²ÑÐ¾ÑÐµÑÐ²Ð¸ÑÐ½ÑÑ ÑÑÐ»ÑÐ³ Ð¸ Ð²ÑÑÐ²Ð»ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ðµ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð±Ð»ÐµÐ¼ Ð² Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ð¸ ÑÐ¿ÑÐ¾ÑÐ° Ð½Ð° ÑÐ°ÑÑÐ¼Ð°ÑÑÐ¸Ð²Ð°ÐµÐ¼Ð¾Ð¼ Ð¿ÑÐµÐ´Ð¿ÑÐ¸ÑÑÐ¸Ð¸; 3. ÐÑÐ±Ð¾Ñ ÑÐ¿Ð¾ÑÐ¾Ð±Ð° ÑÐµÑÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð±Ð»ÐµÐ¼Ñ Ð½Ð° ÑÐ°ÑÑÐ¼Ð°ÑÑÐ¸Ð²Ð°ÐµÐ¼Ð¾Ð¼ Ð¿ÑÐµÐ´Ð¿ÑÐ¸ÑÑÐ¸Ð¸; 4. ÐÑÐ±Ð¾Ñ Ð¸ Ð°Ð´Ð°Ð¿ÑÐ°ÑÐ¸Ñ Ð¼Ð¾Ð´ÐµÐ»Ð¸ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ ÑÐ¿ÑÐ¾ÑÐ° Ðº ÑÐ¿ÐµÑÐ¸ÑÐ¸ÐºÐµ ÑÐ°ÑÑÐ¼Ð°ÑÑÐ¸Ð²Ð°ÐµÐ¼Ð¾Ð³Ð¾ Ð¿ÑÐµÐ´Ð¿ÑÐ¸ÑÑÐ¸Ñ; 5. ÐÑÐµÐ½ÐºÐ° ÑÐ¾ÑÐ½Ð¾ÑÑÐ¸ Ð¼Ð¾Ð´ÐµÐ»Ð¸ Ð½Ð° Ð¾ÑÐ½Ð¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ð¸ ÑÐµÐ°Ð»ÑÐ½ÑÑ Ð´Ð°Ð½Ð½ÑÑ Ð¿ÑÐµÐ´Ð¿ÑÐ¸ÑÑÐ¸Ñ; 6. Ð Ð°Ð·ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÐºÐ° ÑÐµÑÐ½Ð¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¾Ð³Ð¾ Ð·Ð°Ð´Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ Ð½Ð° Ð²Ð½ÐµÐ´ÑÐµÐ½Ð¸Ðµ Ð¸Ð½ÑÐ¾ÑÐ¼Ð°ÑÐ¸Ð¾Ð½Ð½Ð¾Ð¹ ÑÐ¸ÑÑÐµÐ¼Ñ Ð´Ð»Ñ ÑÐµÐ°Ð»Ð¸Ð·Ð°ÑÐ¸Ð¸ Ð¼Ð¾Ð´ÐµÐ»Ð¸ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ ÑÐ¿ÑÐ¾ÑÐ°; 7. Ð­ÐºÐ¾Ð½Ð¾Ð¼Ð¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¸Ð¹ Ð°Ð½Ð°Ð»Ð¸Ð· Ð¿ÑÐ¾ÐµÐºÑÐ°. Ð ÑÐ¾Ð´Ðµ ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÑ Ð±ÑÐ»Ð¾ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð²ÐµÐ´ÐµÐ½Ð¾ ÑÐµÑÑÐ¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ðµ ÑÐµÑÑÑÐµÑ Ð¼Ð¾Ð´ÐµÐ»ÐµÐ¹ Ð½Ð° Ð¾ÑÐ½Ð¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ð¸ Ð¸ÑÑÐ¾ÑÐ¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¸Ñ Ð´Ð°Ð½Ð½ÑÑ Ð¸ Ð²ÑÐ±ÑÐ°Ð½Ð° Ð¼Ð¾Ð´ÐµÐ»Ñ, Ð½Ð°Ð¸Ð±Ð¾Ð»ÐµÐµ ÑÐ¾Ð¾ÑÐ²ÐµÑÑÑÐ²ÑÑÑÐ°Ñ ÑÐµÐ°Ð»ÑÐ½ÑÐ¼ Ð´Ð°Ð½Ð½ÑÐ¼, Ð±ÑÐ» Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð¸Ð·Ð²ÐµÐ´ÐµÐ½ ÑÐ°ÑÑÐµÑ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð° Ð½Ð° 2023 Ð³Ð¾Ð´, Ð° ÑÐ°ÐºÐ¶Ðµ ÑÐ°Ð·ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÐ°Ð½Ð¾ ÑÐµÑÐ½Ð¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¾Ðµ Ð·Ð°Ð´Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ðµ Ð¿Ð¾ Ð²Ð½ÐµÐ´ÑÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ Ð¸Ð½ÑÐ¾ÑÐ¼Ð°ÑÐ¸Ð¾Ð½Ð½Ð¾Ð¹ ÑÐ¸ÑÑÐµÐ¼Ñ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ ÑÐ¿ÑÐ¾ÑÐ° Ð¸ ÑÐ¿ÑÐ°Ð²Ð»ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°ÑÐ½ÑÐ¼Ð¸ Ð·Ð°Ð¿Ð°ÑÐ°Ð¼Ð¸. ÐÐ° Ð¾ÑÐ½Ð¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ð¸ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð²ÐµÐ´ÐµÐ½Ð½ÑÑ ÑÐµÐ·ÑÐ»ÑÑÐ°ÑÐ¾Ð² ÐÐ°ÐºÐ°Ð·ÑÐ¸ÐºÐ¾Ð¼ ÑÑÐ²ÐµÑÐ¶Ð´ÐµÐ½Ð° ÑÐ°Ð·ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÐºÐ° ÑÐ¸ÑÑÐµÐ¼Ñ Ð´Ð»Ñ Ð¿ÑÐµÐ´Ð¿ÑÐ¸ÑÑÐ¸Ñ.
description: The subject of the graduate qualification work is "Project for the implementation of a demand forecasting system at a service enterprise "Automotive FabLab"". The aim of the work is to improve the current process of demand forecasting at a service enterprise by introducing an information system for demand forecasting, which helps to increase the competitiveness of the enterprise. Tasks that were solved during the work: 1. Analysis of existing methods and models of demand forecasting, in particular, for service enterprises; 2. Analysis of the current state of the auto service market and identification of problems in forecasting demand at the enterprise in question; 3. Choosing a way to solve the problem at the enterprise in question; 4. Selection and adaptation of the demand forecasting model to the specifics of the enterprise in question; 5. Estimation of model accuracy based on real enterprise data; 6. Development of terms of reference for the implementation of an information system for the implementation of the demand forecasting model; 7. Economic analysis of the project. In the course of the work, four models were tested based on historical data and the model most corresponding to the real data was selected, the forecast for 2023 was calculated, and the terms of reference were developed for the implementation of an information system for forecasting demand and management commodity stocks. Based on the results, the Customer approved the development of a system for the enterprise.