Surrogate model for real time signal control: theories and applications
Creators: name: Xu, Shiming
Publisher: name: Imperial College London
Year: 2020

description: Traffic signal controls play a vital role in urban road traffic networks. Compared with fixed-time signal control, which is solely based on historical data, real time signal control is flexible and responsive to varying traffic conditions, and hence promises better performance and robustness in managing traffic congestion. Real time signal control can be divided into model-based and model-free approaches. The former requires a traffic model (analytical or simulation-based) in the generation, optimisation and evaluation of signal control plans, which means that its efficacy in real-world deployment depends on the validity and accuracy of the underlying traffic model. Model-free real time signal control, on the other hand, is constructed based on expert experience and empirical observations. Most of the existing model-free real time signal controls, however, focus on learning-based and rule-based approaches, and either lack interpretability or are non-optimised. This thesis proposes a surrogate-based real time signal control and optimisation framework, that can determine signal decisions in a centralised manner without the use of any traffic model. Surrogate models offer analytical and efficient approximations of complex models or black-box processes by fitting their input-output structures with appropriate mathematical tools. Current research on surrogate-based optimisation is limited to strategic and off-line optimisation, which only approximates the relationship between decisions and outputs under highly specific conditions based on certain traffic simulation models and is still to be attempted for real time optimisation. This thesis proposes a framework for surrogate-based real time signal control, by constructing a response surface that encompasses, (1) traffic states, (2) control parameters, and (3) network performance indicators at the same time. A series of comprehensive evaluations are conducted to assess the effectiveness, robustness and computational efficiency of the surrogate-based real time signal control. In the numerical test, the Kriging model is selected to approximate the traffic dynamics of the test network. The results show that this Kriging-based real time signal control can increase the total throughput by 5.3% and reduce the average delay by 8.1% compared with the fixed-time baseline signal plan. In addition, the optimisation time can be reduced by more than 99% if the simulation model is replaced by a Kriging model. The proposed signal controller is further investigated via multi-scenario analyses involving different levels of information availability, network saturation and traffic uncertainty, which shows the robustness and reliability of the controller. Moreover, the influence of the baseline signal on the Kriging-based signal control can be eliminated by a series of off-line updates. By virtue of the model-free nature and the adaptive learning capability of the surrogate model, the Kriging-based real time signal control can adapt to systematic network changes (such as seasonal variations in traffic demand). The adaptive Kriging-based real time signal control can update the response surface according to the feedback from the actual traffic environment. The test results show that the adaptive Kriging-based real time signal control maintains the signal control performance better in response to systematic network changes than either fixed-time signal control or non-adaptive Kriging-based signal control.