title: Ð Ð°Ð·ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÐºÐ° ÑÐµÐºÐ¾Ð¼ÐµÐ½Ð´Ð°ÑÐ¸Ð¹ Ð¿Ð¾ ÑÐ¾Ð²ÐµÑÑÐµÐ½ÑÑÐ²Ð¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ Ð¸Ð½ÑÐ¾ÑÐ¼Ð°ÑÐ¸Ð¾Ð½Ð½Ð¾Ð¹ ÑÐ¸ÑÑÐµÐ¼Ñ Â«ÐÐÐ£Ð¡ Ð Ð¡Ð§Ð¡Â» Ð¿ÑÐ¸ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ð¸ ÑÐ°Ð·Ð²Ð¸ÑÐ¸Ñ ÐºÑÑÐ¿Ð½ÑÑ ÑÑÐµÐ·Ð²ÑÑÐ°Ð¹Ð½ÑÑ ÑÐ¸ÑÑÐ°ÑÐ¸Ð¹
title: Ð²ÑÐ¿ÑÑÐºÐ½Ð°Ñ ÐºÐ²Ð°Ð»Ð¸ÑÐ¸ÐºÐ°ÑÐ¸Ð¾Ð½Ð½Ð°Ñ ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÐ° Ð¼Ð°Ð³Ð¸ÑÑÑÐ°
titleType: Subtitle
title: Development of recommendations for improving the information system "AIUS RSChS" in predicting the development of major emergencies
Creators: name: ÐÐ¸ÐºÑÐ»Ð¸Ð½, Ð¡ÐµÑÐ³ÐµÐ¹
Publisher: name: Ð¡Ð°Ð½ÐºÑ-ÐÐµÑÐµÑÐ±ÑÑÐ³ÑÐºÐ¸Ð¹ Ð¿Ð¾Ð»Ð¸ÑÐµÑÐ½Ð¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¸Ð¹ ÑÐ½Ð¸Ð²ÐµÑÑÐ¸ÑÐµÑ ÐÐµÑÑÐ° ÐÐµÐ»Ð¸ÐºÐ¾Ð³Ð¾
Year: 2023
Subjects: ÐÐµÐ·Ð¾Ð¿Ð°ÑÐ½Ð¾ÑÑÑ Ð¶Ð¸Ð·Ð½ÐµÐ´ÐµÑÑÐµÐ»ÑÐ½Ð¾ÑÑÐ¸ ÑÐµÐ»Ð¾Ð²ÐµÐºÐ°
ÐÐ½ÑÐ¾ÑÐ¼Ð°ÑÐ¸Ð¾Ð½Ð½ÑÐµ ÑÐ¸ÑÑÐµÐ¼Ñ
ÑÑÐµÐ·Ð²ÑÑÐ°Ð¹Ð½Ð°Ñ ÑÐ¸ÑÑÐ°ÑÐ¸Ñ
Ð¿Ð¾Ð´ÑÐ¾Ð¿Ð»ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ðµ
Ð»ÐµÑÐ½Ð¾Ð¹ Ð¿Ð¾Ð¶Ð°Ñ
Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ðµ
Ð¼Ð¾Ð´ÐµÐ»Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ðµ
emergency situation
flood
forest fire
forecasting
model-ing

description: Ð¢ÐµÐ¼Ð° Ð²ÑÐ¿ÑÑÐºÐ½Ð¾Ð¹ ÐºÐ²Ð°Ð»Ð¸ÑÐ¸ÐºÐ°ÑÐ¸Ð¾Ð½Ð½Ð¾Ð¹ ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÑ: Â«Ð Ð°Ð·ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÐºÐ° ÑÐµÐºÐ¾Ð¼ÐµÐ½Ð´Ð°ÑÐ¸Ð¹ Ð¿Ð¾ ÑÐ¾Ð²ÐµÑÑÐµÐ½ÑÑÐ²Ð¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ Ð¸Ð½ÑÐ¾ÑÐ¼Ð°ÑÐ¸Ð¾Ð½Ð½Ð¾Ð¹ ÑÐ¸ÑÑÐµÐ¼Ñ Â«ÐÐÐ£Ð¡ Ð Ð¡Ð§Ð¡Â» Ð¿ÑÐ¸ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ð¸ ÑÐ°Ð·Ð²Ð¸ÑÐ¸Ñ ÐºÑÑÐ¿Ð½ÑÑ ÑÑÐµÐ·Ð²ÑÑÐ°Ð¹Ð½ÑÑ ÑÐ¸ÑÑÐ°ÑÐ¸Ð¹Â». Ð Ð´Ð°Ð½Ð½Ð¾Ð¹ ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÐµ ÑÐ°ÑÑÐ¼Ð°ÑÑÐ¸Ð²Ð°ÑÑÑÑ Ð²Ð¾Ð·Ð¼Ð¾Ð¶Ð½Ð¾ÑÑÐ¸ Ð¸Ð½ÑÐ¾ÑÐ¼Ð°ÑÐ¸Ð¾Ð½Ð½Ð¾Ð¹ Ð¿Ð¾Ð´ÑÐ¸ÑÑÐµÐ¼Ñ Â«ÐÑÐ»Ð°Ñ Ð¾Ð¿Ð°ÑÐ½Ð¾ÑÑÐµÐ¹ Ð¸ ÑÐ¸ÑÐºÐ¾Ð²Â» ÐÐÐ£Ð¡ Ð Ð¡Ð§Ð¡-2030 Ð¸ Ð¾ÑÐµÐ½Ð¸Ð²Ð°ÑÑÑÑ ÑÑÐ¾Ð´Ð¸Ð¼Ð¾ÑÑÑ ÑÐµÐ·ÑÐ»ÑÑÐ°ÑÐ¾Ð² Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ ÑÐ°Ð·Ð²Ð¸ÑÐ¸Ñ ÐºÑÑÐ¿Ð½ÑÑ Ð§Ð¡ Ð¿ÑÐ¸ Ð¿Ð¾Ð¼Ð¾ÑÐ¸ ÐÐ¡ Â«ÐÑÐ»Ð°Ñ Ð¾Ð¿Ð°ÑÐ½Ð¾ÑÑÐµÐ¹ Ð¸ ÑÐ¸ÑÐºÐ¾Ð²Â» Ñ ÑÐµÐ°Ð»ÑÐ½Ð¾ ÑÐ»Ð¾Ð¶Ð¸Ð²ÑÐ¸Ð¹ÑÑ Ð¾Ð±ÑÑÐ°Ð½Ð¾Ð²ÐºÐ¾Ð¹ Ð¿ÑÐ¸ Ð§Ð¡. ÐÐ»Ñ ÑÑÐ¾Ð³Ð¾ Ð°Ð²ÑÐ¾ÑÐ¾Ð¼ Ð±ÑÐ»Ð¸ Ð²ÑÐ¿Ð¾Ð»Ð½ÐµÐ½Ñ ÑÐ»ÐµÐ´ÑÑÑÐ¸Ðµ Ð·Ð°Ð´Ð°ÑÐ¸: 1. ÐÐ·ÑÑÐµÐ½Ñ Ð½Ð¾ÑÐ¼Ð°ÑÐ¸Ð²Ð½Ð¾-ÑÐµÑÐ½Ð¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¸Ðµ Ð´Ð¾ÐºÑÐ¼ÐµÐ½ÑÑ, ÑÐµÐ³Ð»Ð°Ð¼ÐµÐ½ÑÐ¸ÑÑÑÑÐ¸Ðµ ÑÐ¾Ð·Ð´Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ðµ Ð¸ ÑÐºÑÐ¿Ð»ÑÐ°ÑÐ°ÑÐ¸Ñ ÐÐÐ£Ð¡ Ð Ð¡Ð§Ð¡ Ð¸ ÐÐ¡ Â«ÐÑÐ»Ð°Ñ Ð¾Ð¿Ð°ÑÐ½Ð¾ÑÑÐµÐ¹ Ð¸ ÑÐ¸ÑÐºÐ¾Ð²Â». 2. ÐÐ·ÑÑÐµÐ½Ñ Ð¸Ð½ÑÑÑÑÐ¼ÐµÐ½ÑÑ Ð¸ Ð²Ð¾Ð·Ð¼Ð¾Ð¶Ð½Ð¾ÑÑÐ¸ ÐÐ¡ Â«ÐÑÐ»Ð°Ñ Ð¾Ð¿Ð°ÑÐ½Ð¾ÑÑÐµÐ¹ Ð¸ ÑÐ¸ÑÐºÐ¾Ð²Â». 3. Ð¡Ð¾Ð·Ð´Ð°Ð½Ð¾ 5 Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾ÑÑÐ¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¸Ñ Ð¼Ð¾Ð´ÐµÐ»ÐµÐ¹ ÑÐ°Ð·Ð²Ð¸ÑÐ¸Ñ ÐºÑÑÐ¿Ð½ÑÑ Ð§Ð¡ Ð¸ Ð¾ÑÐµÐ½ÐµÐ½Ð° ÑÑÑÐµÐºÑÐ¸Ð²Ð½Ð¾ÑÑÑ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð° Ð² ÑÑÐ°Ð²Ð½ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ð¸ Ñ ÑÐµÐ°Ð»ÑÐ½ÑÐ¼ ÑÐ°Ð·Ð²Ð¸ÑÐ¸ÐµÐ¼ Ð¾Ð±ÑÑÐ°Ð½Ð¾Ð²ÐºÐ¸. 4. Ð Ð°Ð·ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÐ°Ð½Ñ ÑÐµÐºÐ¾Ð¼ÐµÐ½Ð´Ð°ÑÐ¸Ð¸ Ð¿Ð¾ ÑÐ¾Ð²ÐµÑÑÐµÐ½ÑÑÐ²Ð¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ ÐÐ¡ Â«ÐÑÐ»Ð°Ñ Ð¾Ð¿Ð°ÑÐ½Ð¾ÑÑÐµÐ¹ Ð¸ ÑÐ¸ÑÐºÐ¾Ð²Â» Ð¸ ÐÐÐ£Ð¡ Ð Ð¡Ð§Ð¡-2030 Ð² ÑÐµÐ»Ð¾Ð¼ Ð¿ÑÐ¸ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ð¸ ÑÐ°Ð·Ð²Ð¸ÑÐ¸Ñ ÐºÑÑÐ¿Ð½ÑÑ Ð§Ð¡. Ð ÑÐµÐ·ÑÐ»ÑÑÐ°ÑÐµ ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÑ Ð±ÑÐ»Ð¾ ÑÐ¾Ð·Ð´Ð°Ð½Ñ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾ÑÑÐ¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¸Ðµ Ð¼Ð¾Ð´ÐµÐ»Ð¸ ÑÐ°Ð·Ð²Ð¸ÑÐ¸Ñ ÐºÑÑÐ¿Ð½ÑÑ Ð§Ð¡ Ð¸ Ð½Ð° Ð¾ÑÐ½Ð¾Ð²Ðµ Ð¿Ð¾Ð»ÑÑÐµÐ½Ð½ÑÑ ÑÐµÐ·ÑÐ»ÑÑÐ°ÑÐ¾Ð² Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð°Ð½Ð°Ð»Ð¸Ð·Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ñ Ð¾ÑÐ½Ð¾Ð²Ð½ÑÐµ Ð½ÐµÐ´Ð¾ÑÑÐ°ÑÐºÐ¸ ÑÑÑÐµÑÑÐ²ÑÑÑÐµÐ¹ ÑÐ¸ÑÑÐµÐ¼Ñ. Ð Ð°Ð·ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÐ°Ð½Ñ Ð¸ Ð¾Ð¿Ð¸ÑÐ°Ð½Ñ ÑÐµÐºÐ¾Ð¼ÐµÐ½Ð´Ð°ÑÐ¸Ð¸ Ð´Ð»Ñ ÑÐ¾Ð²ÐµÑÑÐµÐ½ÑÑÐ²Ð¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ ÑÑÑÐµÑÑÐ²ÑÑÑÐµÐ¹ ÐÐ¡ Â«ÐÑÐ»Ð°Ñ Ð¾Ð¿Ð°ÑÐ½Ð¾ÑÑÐµÐ¹ Ð¸ ÑÐ¸ÑÐºÐ¾Ð²Â» Ð¸ ÐÐÐ£Ð¡ Ð Ð¡Ð§Ð¡-2030 Ð² ÑÐµÐ»Ð¾Ð¼. ÐÑÐ¸ Ð¿Ð¾Ð¼Ð¾ÑÐ¸ ÑÐ¸ÑÑÐ¾Ð²ÑÑ Ð¸ Ð¸Ð½ÑÐ¾ÑÐ¼Ð°ÑÐ¸Ð¾Ð½Ð½ÑÑ ÑÐµÑÐ½Ð¾Ð»Ð¾Ð³Ð¸Ð¸ ÐÐ§Ð¡ Ð Ð¾ÑÑÐ¸Ð¸ (ÐÐ¡ Â«ÐÑÐ»Ð°Ñ Ð¾Ð¿Ð°ÑÐ½Ð¾ÑÑÐµÐ¹ Ð¸ ÑÐ¸ÑÐºÐ¾Ð², ÐÐ Â«ÐÑÐµÐ½ÐºÐ° Ð¿Ð¾ÑÐ»ÐµÐ´ÑÑÐ²Ð¸Ð¹ Ð»ÐµÑÐ½ÑÑ Ð¿Ð¾Ð¶Ð°ÑÐ¾Ð²Â», ÐÐ¡ Â«Ð¡ÐÐ£Ð Â») Ð±ÑÐ»Ð¸ ÑÐ¾Ð·Ð´Ð°Ð½Ñ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾ÑÑÐ¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¸Ðµ Ð¼Ð¾Ð´ÐµÐ»Ð¸ ÑÐ°Ð·Ð²Ð¸ÑÐ¸Ñ ÐºÑÑÐ¿Ð½ÑÑ Ð§Ð¡, Ð° Ð¿ÑÐ¸ Ð¿Ð¾Ð¼Ð¾ÑÐ¸ ÑÐµÑÐ½Ð¾Ð»Ð¾Ð³Ð¸Ð¹ ÑÑÐ¾ÑÐ¾Ð½Ð½Ð¸Ñ Ð¾ÑÐ³Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ð·Ð°ÑÐ¸Ð¹ Ð¸ Ð²ÐµÐ´Ð¾Ð¼ÑÑÐ² (Sentinel Hub EO Browser, Ð±Ð°Ð·Ñ Ð´Ð°Ð½Ð½ÑÑ Ð¿Ð¾Ð³Ð¾Ð´Ñ (Ð Ð¾ÑÐ³Ð¸Ð´ÑÐ¾Ð¼ÐµÑ, Ð Ð5), ÐÐ¡ÐÐ-Ð Ð¾ÑÐ»ÐµÑÑÐ¾Ð·, Ð¿Ð¾ÑÑÐ°Ð» Ð³ÐµÐ¾Ð°Ð½Ð°Ð»Ð¸ÑÐ¸ÐºÐ¸ ÐÐ¾ÑÐºÐ¾ÑÐ¿Ð¾ÑÐ°ÑÐ¸Ð¸ Â«Ð Ð¾ÑÐºÐ¾ÑÐ¼Ð¾ÑÂ» Ð¸ ÐÐ Â«Ð¢ÐµÑÑÐ° Ð¢ÐµÑÂ») Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð²ÐµÐ´ÐµÐ½Ð¾ ÑÑÐ°Ð²Ð½ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ Ð¿Ð¾Ð»ÑÑÐµÐ½Ð½ÑÑ ÑÐµÐ·ÑÐ»ÑÑÐ°ÑÐ¾Ð² Ñ ÑÐµÐ°Ð»ÑÐ½Ð¾Ð¹ Ð¾Ð±ÑÑÐ°Ð½Ð¾Ð²ÐºÐ¾Ð¹ Ð¿ÑÐ¸ Ð§Ð¡.
description: The topic of the final qualifying work: "Development of recommendations for improving the information system "AIUS RSCHS" in predicting the development of major emergencies". This paper examines the possibilities of the information subsystem "Atlas of Hazards and Risks" of the AIUS RSCHS-2030 and assesses the convergence of the results of forecasting the development of major emergencies using the IC "Atlas of Hazards and Risks" with the actual situation in emergencies. To do this, the author performed the following tasks: 1. The normative and technical documents regulating the construction and op-eration of the AIUS RSChS and IS "Atlas of Hazards and Risks" have been studied. 2. The tools and capabilities of the IC "Atlas of Hazards and Risks" have been studied. 3. 5 predictive models of the development of major emergencies have been cre-ated and the effectiveness of the forecast in comparison with the real development of the situation has been evaluated. 4. Recommendations have been developed to improve the IC "Atlas of Hazards and Risks" and the AIUS RSChS-2030 as a whole when predicting the development of major emergencies. With the help of digital and information technologies of the EMERCOM of Russia (IC "Atlas of Hazards and Risks"; SOFTWARE "Assessment of the conse-quences of forest fires", IC "SAUR"), predictive models of the development of major emergencies were created, and with the help of technologies of third-party organiza-tions and departments (Sentinel Hub EO Browser, weather databases (Roshydromet, RP5), ISDM-Rosleskhoz, the portal of geoanalytics of the State Corporation "Ros-cosmos" and JSC "Terra Tech") conducted a comparison of the treated results with the real situation in an emergency. As a result of the work, predictive models of the development of major emergencies were created and, based on the results obtained, the main shortcomings of the existing system were analyzed. Recommendations have been developed and described for improving the existing IC "Atlas of Hazards and Risks" and AIUS RSChS-2030 as a whole.