El Nino- Its Impact on Rainfall and Crop Productivity-A Case Study for Himachal Pradesh
Creators: name: Prasad, Rajendra
name: VUM, Rao
name: B Bapuji, Rao
Publisher: name: Zenodo
Year: 2014
Subjects: El Nino
Impact on Rainfall
Crop Productivity

description: National food  security in the backdrop of climate variability is a matter of concern for everyone in the society. In a fast growing Indian economy, the contribution from farm sector is declining constantly from 57 per cent in 1950-51 to 13.7 per cent in 2012-13. This decline have a direct impact on the employment opportunities and livelihoods in rural areas. Extreme weather conditions such as floods, droughts, heat and cold waves, cyclones and hail storms cause huge losses to crop production, but even more subtle aberrations in weather during critical phases of crop can also have a substantial impact on the ultimate farm yield. Some of these aberrations may go unnoticed on a regional scale but the science of Agricultural Meteorology has established that the performance of southwest monsoon in the country has a tele-link with El Niño phenomenon.

  The information on the anticipated fluctuations in monsoon rainfall and resultant agricultural production prior to the start of growing season has wider implications on decision making at the farm and policy levels.The inter-annual variability of Indian monsoon rainfall has profound influence on agriculture and national economy. Occurrences of droughts and floods associated with the inter-annual variability of Indian monsoon affects the agriculture, water resources and even price rise. This inter-annual variability of Indian monsoon is largely affected by the occurrence of El Niño episodes. A strong El Niño can cause drought like conditions. About 60 per cent of net sown area of the country is rain fed. With every one per cent deficit in rains, the country's gross domestic product falls by 0.35 per cent. 

  Regional scenarios anticipated in the event of El Niño help the administration to mobilize resources and inputs like seeds, fertilizers etc accordingly. An attempt has been made to examine the possibility of using El Niño as a signal of climatic variability which can help in moderating any likely adverse effects on crop production with better planning and management. There is an urgent need to carry out analogous studies for all those regions where the impact of climatic variability on crop production is significant.

                        Himachal Pradesh receives rainfall mainly through SW monsoon which is likely to be affected by El Niño event and so the crop production. The relationship between El Niño and its associated influence on rainfall of Himachal Pradesh and agricultural production has not been established so far. the  work on this aspect has been undertaken by the Department of Agronomy, Forages and Grassland Management, CSK HPKV, Palampur. The efforts of the team of All India Coordinated Research Project on Agrometeorology of CSK HPKV, Palampur in bring out this bulletin on “El Niño- Its Impact on Rainfall and Crop Productivity: A Case Study for Himachal Pradesh” are really praise-worthy. I congratulate them and hope  that this publication will be of immense use to scientists, farmers and planners.