title: ÐÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ðµ ÑÐ¸ÑÐ»ÐµÐ½Ð½Ð¾ÑÑÐ¸ Ð°ÑÐ´Ð¸ÑÐ¾ÑÐ¸Ð¸ Ð±Ð»Ð¾Ð³Ð°
title: Ð²ÑÐ¿ÑÑÐºÐ½Ð°Ñ ÐºÐ²Ð°Ð»Ð¸ÑÐ¸ÐºÐ°ÑÐ¸Ð¾Ð½Ð½Ð°Ñ ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÐ° Ð±Ð°ÐºÐ°Ð»Ð°Ð²ÑÐ°
titleType: Subtitle
title: Blog audience forecasting
Creators: name: Ð¢Ð¸Ð¼Ð¾ÑÐ¸Ð½Ð°, ÐÐ¸ÐºÑÐ¾ÑÐ¸Ñ
Publisher: name: Ð¡Ð°Ð½ÐºÑ-ÐÐµÑÐµÑÐ±ÑÑÐ³ÑÐºÐ¸Ð¹ Ð¿Ð¾Ð»Ð¸ÑÐµÑÐ½Ð¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¸Ð¹ ÑÐ½Ð¸Ð²ÐµÑÑÐ¸ÑÐµÑ ÐÐµÑÑÐ° ÐÐµÐ»Ð¸ÐºÐ¾Ð³Ð¾
Year: 2022
Subjects: Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ðµ
Ð³Ð¸Ð±ÑÐ¸Ð´Ð½ÑÐµ Ð¼Ð¾Ð´ÐµÐ»Ð¸
Ð°ÑÐ´Ð¸ÑÐ¾ÑÐ¸Ñ Ð±Ð»Ð¾Ð³Ð°
ÑÐ¸ÑÑÐµÐ¼Ð½Ð°Ñ Ð´Ð¸Ð½Ð°Ð¼Ð¸ÐºÐ°
Ð°Ð³ÐµÐ½ÑÐ½Ð¾Ðµ Ð¼Ð¾Ð´ÐµÐ»Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ðµ
forecasting
hybrid models
blog audience
system dynamics
agent modeling.

description: Ð¢ÐµÐ¼Ð° Ð²ÑÐ¿ÑÑÐºÐ½Ð¾Ð¹ ÐºÐ²Ð°Ð»Ð¸ÑÐ¸ÐºÐ°ÑÐ¸Ð¾Ð½Ð½Ð¾Ð¹ ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÑ Â«ÐÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ðµ ÑÐ¸ÑÐ»ÐµÐ½Ð½Ð¾ÑÑÐ¸ Ð°ÑÐ´Ð¸ÑÐ¾ÑÐ¸Ð¸ Ð±Ð»Ð¾Ð³Ð°Â». ÐÐ±ÑÐµÐºÑÐ¾Ð¼ ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÑ ÑÐ²Ð»ÑÐµÑÑÑ ÑÐ¸ÑÐ»ÐµÐ½Ð½Ð¾ÑÑÑ Ð°ÑÐ´Ð¸ÑÐ¾ÑÐ¸Ð¸ Ð±Ð»Ð¾Ð³Ð°. ÐÑÐµÐ´Ð¼ÐµÑÐ¾Ð¼ â ÑÐ¸ÑÐ»ÐµÐ½Ð½ÑÐµ Ð¼ÐµÑÐ¾Ð´Ñ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ ÑÑÐ¾Ð¹ ÑÐ¸ÑÐ»ÐµÐ½Ð½Ð¾ÑÑÐ¸. Ð¦ÐµÐ»ÑÑ Ð½Ð°ÑÑÐ¾ÑÑÐµÐ¹ ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÑ ÑÐ²Ð»ÑÐµÑÑÑ Ð¿Ð¾ÑÑÑÐ¾ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ðµ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾ÑÑÐ¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¾Ð¹ Ð¼Ð¾Ð´ÐµÐ»Ð¸ ÑÐ¸ÑÑÐµÐ¼Ñ ÑÐ¾ÑÑÐ° Ð°ÑÐ´Ð¸ÑÐ¾ÑÐ¸Ð¸ Ð±Ð»Ð¾Ð³Ð° Ð½Ð° Ð¾ÑÐ½Ð¾Ð²Ðµ Ð¸Ð·Ð²ÐµÑÑÐ½ÑÑ Ð¿ÑÐ°ÐºÑÐ¸Ðº Ð¿Ð¾ÑÑÑÐ¾ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ Ð¼Ð¾Ð´ÐµÐ»ÐµÐ¹ Ð¸ Ð¸Ð½ÑÑÑÑÐ¼ÐµÐ½ÑÐ¾Ð² ÑÐ¸ÑÑÐµÐ¼Ð½Ð¾Ð³Ð¾ Ð°Ð½Ð°Ð»Ð¸Ð·Ð°. ÐÐ»Ñ Ð´Ð¾ÑÑÐ¸Ð¶ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÑÑÐ¾Ð¹ ÑÐµÐ»Ð¸ Ð¿ÑÐ¸Ð¼ÐµÐ½ÑÑÑÑÑ Ð¼ÐµÑÐ¾Ð´Ñ ÑÐ±Ð¾ÑÐ° Ð´Ð°Ð½Ð½ÑÑ, ÐºÐ¾Ð½ÑÐµÐ¿ÑÑÐ°Ð»ÑÐ½Ð¾Ð³Ð¾ Ð¼Ð¾Ð´ÐµÐ»Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ, Ð¼Ð¾Ð´ÐµÐ»Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ Ð½Ð° ÑÐ·ÑÐºÐµ ÑÐ¸ÑÑÐµÐ¼Ð½Ð¾Ð¹ Ð´Ð¸Ð½Ð°Ð¼Ð¸ÐºÐ¸, Ð°Ð³ÐµÐ½ÑÐ½Ð¾Ð³Ð¾ Ð¼Ð¾Ð´ÐµÐ»Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ. ÐÑÐ¾Ð³Ð¾Ð²Ð°Ñ Ð¼Ð¾Ð´ÐµÐ»Ñ Ð¿Ð¾ÑÑÑÐ¾ÐµÐ½Ð° Ð² ÑÐ¸ÑÑÐµÐ¼Ðµ Ð³Ð¸Ð±ÑÐ¸Ð´Ð½Ð¾Ð³Ð¾ Ð¼Ð¾Ð´ÐµÐ»Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ AnyLogic Ð½Ð° ÑÐ·ÑÐºÐµ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³ÑÐ°Ð¼Ð¼Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ Java. ÐÑÐ»Ð¸ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð²ÐµÐ´ÐµÐ½Ñ Ð¾ÑÐ»Ð°Ð´Ð¾ÑÐ½ÑÐµ Ð¸ ÑÐµÑÑÐ¾Ð²ÑÐµ ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÑ, Ð² ÑÐµÐ·ÑÐ»ÑÑÐ°ÑÐµ ÐºÐ¾ÑÐ¾ÑÑÑ ÐºÐ¾Ð´ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³ÑÐ°Ð¼Ð¼Ñ Ð¾ÐºÐ°Ð·Ð°Ð»ÑÑ ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÐ¾ÑÐ¿Ð¾ÑÐ¾Ð±ÐµÐ½ Ð½Ð° Ð½Ð°Ð±Ð¾ÑÐµ ÑÐµÑÑÐ¾Ð²ÑÑ Ð´Ð°Ð½Ð½ÑÑ. ÐÐ¾Ð¶Ð½Ð¾ ÑÐ´ÐµÐ»Ð°ÑÑ Ð²ÑÐ²Ð¾Ð´ Ð¾ ÑÐ¾Ð¼, ÑÑÐ¾ Ð¿Ð¾ÑÑÑÐ¾ÐµÐ½Ð½Ð°Ñ Ð² ÑÐ°Ð¼ÐºÐ°Ñ ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÑ Ð³Ð¸Ð±ÑÐ¸Ð´Ð½Ð°Ñ Ð¼Ð¾Ð´ÐµÐ»Ñ Ð¾ÐºÐ°Ð·ÑÐ²Ð°ÐµÑÑÑ Ð±Ð¾Ð»ÐµÐµ ÑÐ¾ÑÐ½Ð¾Ð¹, ÑÐµÐ¼ Ð°Ð½Ð°Ð»Ð¾Ð³Ð¸. ÐÑÐ¸ ÑÑÐ¾Ð¼, Ð¾ÑÐ¼ÐµÑÐ¸Ð¼, ÑÑÐ¾ Ð¿Ð¾Ð»ÑÑÐµÐ½Ð½ÑÐµ ÑÐµÐ·ÑÐ»ÑÑÐ°ÑÑ Ð½Ðµ Ð²Ð¿Ð¾Ð»Ð½Ðµ ÐºÐ¾ÑÑÐµÐºÑÐ½Ñ, Ð° Ð¿Ð¾ÑÐ¾Ð¼Ñ Ð¼Ð¾Ð´ÐµÐ»Ñ Ð½ÑÐ¶Ð´Ð°ÐµÑÑÑ Ð² ÑÐ»ÑÑÑÐµÐ½Ð¸ÑÑ Ð´Ð»Ñ Ð±Ð¾Ð»ÐµÐµ ÑÐ¾ÑÐ½Ð¾Ð³Ð¾ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ. ÐÐ° Ð´Ð°Ð½Ð½ÑÐ¹ Ð¼Ð¾Ð¼ÐµÐ½Ñ ÑÐ¾ÑÐ½Ð¾ÑÑÑ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð¾Ð² ÑÐ¾ÑÑÐ°Ð²Ð»ÑÐµÑ Ð¾ÐºÐ¾Ð»Ð¾ 70-80% Ð² Ð·Ð°Ð²Ð¸ÑÐ¸Ð¼Ð¾ÑÑÐ¸ Ð¾Ñ Ð³Ð¾ÑÐ¸Ð·Ð¾Ð½ÑÐ° Ð¿Ð»Ð°Ð½Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ (ÑÐµÐ¼ Ð±Ð¾Ð»ÑÑÐµ, ÑÐµÐ¼ Ð½Ð¸Ð¶Ðµ ÑÐ¾ÑÐ½Ð¾ÑÑÑ) Ð¸ Ð¾ÑÐ¾Ð±ÐµÐ½Ð½Ð¾ÑÑÐµÐ¹ ÑÐ¸ÑÑÐµÐ¼Ñ. ÐÑÐ¸ ÑÑÐ¾Ð¼ Ð¼Ð¾Ð´ÐµÐ»Ñ Ð¾ÐºÐ°Ð·ÑÐ²Ð°ÐµÑÑÑ Ð±Ð¾Ð»ÐµÐµ Ð³ÑÐ¾Ð¼Ð¾Ð·Ð´ÐºÐ¾Ð¹ Ð¸ Ð²ÑÐ¿Ð¾Ð»Ð½ÑÐµÑÑÑ Ð´Ð¾Ð»ÑÑÐµ Ð°Ð½Ð°Ð»Ð¾Ð³Ð¾Ð², ÑÑÐ¾ ÑÐ¾Ð¶Ðµ Ð¼Ð¾Ð¶Ð½Ð¾ ÑÑÐ¸ÑÐ°ÑÑ Ð½ÐµÐ´Ð¾ÑÑÐ°ÑÐºÐ¾Ð¼ ÑÐ°Ð·ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÐ°Ð½Ð½Ð¾Ð¹ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð¸ÑÑÑÑÐµÐ¹ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³ÑÐ°Ð¼Ð¼Ñ.
description: The subject of the graduate qualification work is "Forecasting the number of the blog audience". The object of the work is the number of the blog's audience. The subject is numerical methods for predicting this numeracy. The purpose of this work is to build a predictive model of the blog audience growth system based on well-known practices of building models and system analysis tools. To achieve this goal, methods of data collection, conceptual modeling, modeling in the language of system dynamics, agent modeling are used. The final model is built in the AnyLogic hybrid modeling system in the Java programming language. Debugging and test work were carried out, as a result of which the program code turned out to be functional on a set of test data. It can be concluded that the hybrid model built within the framework of the work turns out to be more accurate than analogues. At the same time, we note that the results obtained are not completely correct, and therefore the model needs improvements for more accurate forecasting. At the moment, the accuracy of forecasts is about 70-80%, depending on the planning horizon (the more, the lower the accuracy) and the features of the system. At the same time, the model turns out to be more cumbersome and runs longer than analogues, which can also be considered a disadvantage of the developed predictive program.