title: Ð Ð°Ð·ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÐºÐ° Ð¸Ð½ÑÐµÐ³ÑÐ°Ð»ÑÐ½Ð¾Ð¹ ÑÐ¸ÑÑÐµÐ¼Ñ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ Ð·ÐµÐ¼Ð»ÐµÑÑÑÑÐµÐ½Ð¸Ð¹ Ð½Ð° Ð¾ÑÐ½Ð¾Ð²Ðµ Ð¿ÑÐµÐ´Ð²ÐµÑÑÐ½Ð¸ÐºÐ¾Ð²
title: Ð²ÑÐ¿ÑÑÐºÐ½Ð°Ñ ÐºÐ²Ð°Ð»Ð¸ÑÐ¸ÐºÐ°ÑÐ¸Ð¾Ð½Ð½Ð°Ñ ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÐ° Ð±Ð°ÐºÐ°Ð»Ð°Ð²ÑÐ°
titleType: Subtitle
title: Development of an integrated system for earthquake forecasting based on precursors
Creators: name: ÐÑÐ·Ð½ÐµÑÐ¾Ð², Ð®ÑÐ¸Ð¹
Publisher: name: Ð¡Ð°Ð½ÐºÑ-ÐÐµÑÐµÑÐ±ÑÑÐ³ÑÐºÐ¸Ð¹ Ð¿Ð¾Ð»Ð¸ÑÐµÑÐ½Ð¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¸Ð¹ ÑÐ½Ð¸Ð²ÐµÑÑÐ¸ÑÐµÑ ÐÐµÑÑÐ° ÐÐµÐ»Ð¸ÐºÐ¾Ð³Ð¾
Year: 2022
Subjects: Ð·ÐµÐ¼Ð»ÐµÑÑÑÑÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ
Ð¼Ð¾Ð½Ð¸ÑÐ¾ÑÐ¸Ð½Ð³
Ð¼Ð°ÑÐµÐ¼Ð°ÑÐ¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ°Ñ Ð¼Ð¾Ð´ÐµÐ»Ñ
ÑÑÐµÐ·Ð²ÑÑÐ°Ð¹Ð½ÑÐµ ÑÐ¸ÑÑÐ°ÑÐ¸Ð¸
Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ðµ
Ð¿ÑÐµÐ´Ð²ÐµÑÑÐ½Ð¸ÐºÐ¸
earthquakes
monitoring
mathematical model
emergency situations
forecasting
precursors

description: Ð¢ÐµÐ¼Ð° Ð²ÑÐ¿ÑÑÐºÐ½Ð¾Ð¹ ÐºÐ²Ð°Ð»Ð¸ÑÐ¸ÐºÐ°ÑÐ¸Ð¾Ð½Ð½Ð¾Ð¹ ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÑ: Â«Ð Ð°Ð·ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÐºÐ° Ð¸Ð½ÑÐµÐ³ÑÐ°Ð»ÑÐ½Ð¾Ð¹ ÑÐ¸ÑÑÐµÐ¼Ñ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ Ð·ÐµÐ¼Ð»ÐµÑÑÑÑÐµÐ½Ð¸Ð¹ Ð½Ð° Ð¾ÑÐ½Ð¾Ð²Ðµ Ð¿ÑÐµÐ´Ð²ÐµÑÑÐ½Ð¸ÐºÐ¾Ð²Â».Ð Ð°Ð±Ð¾ÑÐ° Ð¿Ð¾ÑÐ²ÑÑÐµÐ½Ð° Ð¸ÑÑÐ»ÐµÐ´Ð¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ Ð´ÐµÐ¹ÑÑÐ²ÑÑÑÐµÐ¹ Ð² Ð Ð¾ÑÑÐ¸Ð¸ ÑÐ¸ÑÑÐµÐ¼Ñ Ð¼Ð¾Ð½Ð¸ÑÐ¾ÑÐ¸Ð½Ð³Ð° Ð¸ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ Ð·ÐµÐ¼Ð»ÐµÑÑÑÑÐµÐ½Ð¸Ð¹, Ð° ÑÐ°ÐºÐ¶Ðµ ÑÐ°Ð·ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÐºÐµ ÐºÐ¾Ð½ÑÐµÐ¿ÑÐ¸Ð¸ Ð¸Ð½ÑÐµÐ³ÑÐ°Ð»ÑÐ½Ð¾Ð¹ ÑÐ¸ÑÑÐµÐ¼Ñ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ Ð·ÐµÐ¼Ð»ÐµÑÑÑÑÐµÐ½Ð¸Ð¹, ÐºÐ¾ÑÐ¾ÑÐ°Ñ Ð´Ð¾Ð»Ð¶Ð½Ð° ÑÐ»ÑÑÑÐ¸ÑÑ ÐºÐ°ÑÐµÑÑÐ²Ð¾ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð¾Ð². Ð ÑÐ¾Ð´Ðµ ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÑ ÑÐµÑÐ°Ð»Ð¸ÑÑ ÑÐ»ÐµÐ´ÑÑÑÐ¸Ðµ Ð·Ð°Ð´Ð°ÑÐ¸:ÐÐ¿ÑÐµÐ´ÐµÐ»ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ðµ Ð°ÐºÑÑÐ°Ð»ÑÐ½ÑÑ ÑÐµÐ½Ð´ÐµÐ½ÑÐ¸Ð¹ Ð¸ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð±Ð»ÐµÐ¼ Ð² ÑÑÐµÑÐµ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ Ð·ÐµÐ¼Ð»ÐµÑÑÑÑÐµÐ½Ð¸Ð¹;Ð Ð°ÑÑÐ¼Ð¾ÑÑÐµÐ½Ð¸Ðµ Ð¾ÑÐ³Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ð·Ð°ÑÐ¸Ð¾Ð½Ð½Ð¾Ð¹ ÑÑÑÑÐºÑÑÑÑ ÑÐµÐ¹ÑÐ¼Ð¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¾Ð¹ ÑÐµÑÐ¸ Ð¼Ð¾Ð½Ð¸ÑÐ¾ÑÐ¸Ð½Ð³Ð° Ð² Ð Ð¤, ÑÑÐµÐ´ÑÑÐ² Ð¼Ð¾Ð½Ð¸ÑÐ¾ÑÐ¸Ð½Ð³Ð° Ð¸ Ð´ÐµÐ¹ÑÑÐ²ÑÑÑÐµÐ¹ Ð½Ð¾ÑÐ¼Ð°ÑÐ¸Ð²Ð½Ð¾Ð¹ Ð´Ð¾ÐºÑÐ¼ÐµÐ½ÑÐ°ÑÐ¸Ð¸;ÐÐ½Ð°Ð»Ð¸Ð· Ð¿ÑÐµÐ´Ð²ÐµÑÑÐ½Ð¸ÐºÐ¾Ð² Ð·ÐµÐ¼Ð»ÐµÑÑÑÑÐµÐ½Ð¸Ð¹;Ð Ð°Ð·ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÐºÐ° Ð¿ÑÐ¸Ð½ÑÐ¸Ð¿Ð¾Ð², ÑÑÑÑÐºÑÑÑÑ Ð¸ Ð°Ð»Ð³Ð¾ÑÐ¸ÑÐ¼Ð° ÑÑÐ½ÐºÑÐ¸Ð¾Ð½Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ Ð¸Ð½ÑÐµÐ³ÑÐ°Ð»ÑÐ½Ð¾Ð¹ ÑÐ¸ÑÑÐµÐ¼Ñ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ Ð·ÐµÐ¼Ð»ÐµÑÑÑÑÐµÐ½Ð¸Ð¹;Ð Ð°ÑÑÐ¼Ð¾ÑÑÐµÐ½Ð¸Ðµ Ð¼ÐµÑÐ¾Ð´Ð¸ÐºÐ¸ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ Ð·ÐµÐ¼Ð»ÐµÑÑÑÑÐµÐ½Ð¸Ð¹ Ð¸ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ðµ Ð¼Ð°ÐºÑÐ¸Ð¼Ð°Ð»ÑÐ½Ð¾Ð¹ Ð¼Ð°Ð³Ð½Ð¸ÑÑÐ´Ñ Ð½Ð° ÑÐµÑÑÐ¸ÑÐ¾ÑÐ¸Ð¸ ÐÐ°Ð¼ÑÐ°ÑÑÐºÐ¾Ð³Ð¾ ÐºÑÐ°Ñ;Ð ÑÐµÐ·ÑÐ»ÑÑÐ°ÑÐµ ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÑ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð°Ð½Ð°Ð»Ð¸Ð·Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ñ Ð¾ÑÐ½Ð¾Ð²Ð½ÑÐµ Ð½Ð¾ÑÐ¼Ð°ÑÐ¸Ð²Ð½ÑÐµ Ð´Ð¾ÐºÑÐ¼ÐµÐ½ÑÑ Ð² Ð¾Ð±Ð»Ð°ÑÑÐ¸ Ð¼Ð¾Ð½Ð¸ÑÐ¾ÑÐ¸Ð½Ð³Ð° Ð¸ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ Ð·ÐµÐ¼Ð»ÐµÑÑÑÑÐµÐ½Ð¸Ð¹, Ð²ÑÑÐ²Ð»ÐµÐ½Ñ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð±Ð»ÐµÐ¼Ñ Ð¸ Ð¿ÐµÑÑÐ¿ÐµÐºÑÐ¸Ð²Ñ ÑÐ°Ð·Ð²Ð¸ÑÐ¸Ñ ÑÑÑÐµÑÑÐ²ÑÑÑÐµÐ¹ ÑÐ¸ÑÑÐµÐ¼Ñ Ð¼Ð¾Ð½Ð¸ÑÐ¾ÑÐ¸Ð½Ð³Ð° Ð¸ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ, ÑÐ°ÑÑÐ¼Ð¾ÑÑÐµÐ½Ñ Ð¿ÑÐµÐ´Ð²ÐµÑÑÐ½Ð¸ÐºÐ¸ Ð·ÐµÐ¼Ð»ÐµÑÑÑÑÐµÐ½Ð¸Ð¹. Ð Ð°Ð·ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÐ°Ð½Ð° ÐºÐ¾Ð½ÑÐµÐ¿ÑÐ¸Ñ Ð¸Ð½ÑÐµÐ³ÑÐ°Ð»ÑÐ½Ð¾Ð¹ ÑÐ¸ÑÑÐµÐ¼Ñ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ Ð·ÐµÐ¼Ð»ÐµÑÑÑÑÐµÐ½Ð¸Ð¹, ÑÐ¾ÑÐµÑÐ°ÑÑÐ°Ñ Ð² ÑÐµÐ±Ðµ Ð¼ÐµÑÐ¾Ð´Ñ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ Ð½Ð° Ð¾ÑÐ½Ð¾Ð²Ðµ Ð¼Ð°ÑÐµÐ¼Ð°ÑÐ¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¸Ñ Ð¼Ð¾Ð´ÐµÐ»ÐµÐ¹ Ð¸ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ðµ Ð¿Ð¾ Ð´Ð°Ð½Ð½ÑÐ¼ Ð¼Ð¾Ð½Ð¸ÑÐ¾ÑÐ¸Ð½Ð³Ð° Ð¾ÐºÑÑÐ¶Ð°ÑÑÐµÐ¹ ÑÑÐµÐ´Ñ.
description: The topic of the final qualification work: "Development of an integrated system for earthquake forecasting based on precursors".The work is devoted to the study of the system of monitoring and forecasting of earthquakes operating in Russia, as well as the development of the concept of an integrated system of earthquake forecasting, which should improve the quality of forecasts. During the work the following tasks were solved:Determination of current trends and problems in the field of earthquake prediction;Consideration of the organizational structure of the seismic monitoring network in the Russian Federation, monitoring and forecasting tools and current regulatory documentation;Analysis of earthquake precursors;Development of principles, structure and algorithm for the functioning of an integrated system for earthquake forecasting;Consideration of earthquake prediction methodology and forecasting the maximum magnitude on the territory of the Kamchatka;As a result of the work, the main regulatory documents in the field of monitoring and forecasting earthquakes were analyzed, problems and prospects for the development of the existing monitoring and forecasting system were identified, and earthquake precursors were considered. The concept of an integrated earthquake prediction system has been developed, which combines forecasting methods based on mathematical models and forecasting based on environmental monitoring data.