title: ÐÑÐ¾Ð³ÑÐ°Ð¼Ð¼Ð½Ð¾Ðµ ÑÑÐµÐ´ÑÑÐ²Ð¾ Ð´Ð»Ñ Ð°Ð²ÑÐ¾Ð¼Ð°ÑÐ¸Ð·Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð½Ð¾Ð³Ð¾ Ð¿ÑÐµÐ´ÑÐºÐ°Ð·Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ Ð¿Ð¾Ð»Ð¸ÑÐ¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¸Ñ ÐºÐ¾Ð½ÑÐ»Ð¸ÐºÑÐ¾Ð² Ð½Ð° Ð¾ÑÐ½Ð¾Ð²Ðµ Ð¼ÐµÑÐ¾Ð´Ð¾Ð² Ð°Ð½Ð°Ð»Ð¸Ð·Ð° Ð²ÑÐµÐ¼ÐµÐ½Ð½ÑÑ ÑÑÐ´Ð¾Ð²
title: Ð²ÑÐ¿ÑÑÐºÐ½Ð°Ñ ÐºÐ²Ð°Ð»Ð¸ÑÐ¸ÐºÐ°ÑÐ¸Ð¾Ð½Ð½Ð°Ñ ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÐ° Ð¼Ð°Ð³Ð¸ÑÑÑÐ°
titleType: Subtitle
title: The software tool for automated prediction of political conflicts based on time series analysis methods
Creators: name: Ð¡ÐµÐ»Ð¸Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¾Ð²Ð°, Ð¡Ð¾ÑÑÑ
Publisher: name: Ð¡Ð°Ð½ÐºÑ-ÐÐµÑÐµÑÐ±ÑÑÐ³ÑÐºÐ¸Ð¹ Ð¿Ð¾Ð»Ð¸ÑÐµÑÐ½Ð¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¸Ð¹ ÑÐ½Ð¸Ð²ÐµÑÑÐ¸ÑÐµÑ ÐÐµÑÑÐ° ÐÐµÐ»Ð¸ÐºÐ¾Ð³Ð¾
Year: 2024
Subjects: Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ðµ
Ð²ÑÐµÐ¼ÐµÐ½Ð½ÑÐµ ÑÑÐ´Ñ
ÐºÐ¾Ð½ÑÐ»Ð¸ÐºÑÐ¾Ð»Ð¾Ð³Ð¸Ñ
forecasting
time series
conflictology

description: ÐÐ°Ð½Ð½Ð°Ñ ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÐ° Ð¿Ð¾ÑÐ²ÑÑÐµÐ½Ð° Ð¸ÑÑÐ»ÐµÐ´Ð¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ Ð² Ð¾Ð±Ð»Ð°ÑÑÐ¸ ÐºÐ¾Ð½ÑÐ»Ð¸ÐºÑÐ¾Ð»Ð¾Ð³Ð¸Ð¸ Ð¸ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ Ð¿Ð¾Ð»Ð¸ÑÐ¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¸Ñ ÐºÐ¾Ð½ÑÐ»Ð¸ÐºÑÐ¾Ð². ÐÐ¿Ð¸ÑÐ°Ð½Ñ ÑÑÑÐµÑÑÐ²ÑÑÑÐ¸Ðµ Ð¸ÑÑÐ¾ÑÐ½Ð¸ÐºÐ¸, Ð¼Ð¾Ð´ÐµÐ»Ð¸ Ð´Ð°Ð½Ð½ÑÑ Ð¸ Ð¸Ð½ÑÑÑÑÐ¼ÐµÐ½ÑÑ Ð´Ð»Ñ Ð¿ÑÐµÐ´ÑÐºÐ°Ð·Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ ÑÐ¾Ð±ÑÑÐ¸Ð¹. ÐÐ·ÑÑÐµÐ½Ñ Ð°ÐºÑÑÐ°Ð»ÑÐ½ÑÐµ Ð¿Ð¾Ð´ÑÐ¾Ð´Ñ Ðº Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ Ð²ÑÐµÐ¼ÐµÐ½Ð½ÑÑ ÑÑÐ´Ð¾Ð². Ð ÑÐ°Ð¼ÐºÐ°Ñ ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÑ Ð¿ÑÐµÐ´Ð»Ð¾Ð¶ÐµÐ½ Ð¼ÐµÑÐ¾Ð´ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ ÐºÐ¾Ð½ÑÐ»Ð¸ÐºÑÐ¾Ð², ÐºÐ¾ÑÐ¾ÑÑÐ¹ Ð¾ÑÐ½Ð¾Ð²Ð°Ð½ Ð½Ð° Ð¸ÑÐ¿Ð¾Ð»ÑÐ·Ð¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ð¸ Ð°Ð»Ð³Ð¾ÑÐ¸ÑÐ¼Ð¾Ð² ARIMA Ð¸ LSTM. ÐÑÐµÐ´Ð»Ð¾Ð¶ÐµÐ½Ð½ÑÐ¹ Ð¼ÐµÑÐ¾Ð´ Ð±ÑÐ» ÑÐµÐ°Ð»Ð¸Ð·Ð¾Ð²Ð°Ð½ Ð² Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³ÑÐ°Ð¼Ð¼Ð½Ð¾Ð¼ ÑÑÐµÐ´ÑÑÐ²Ðµ Ð½Ð° ÑÐ·ÑÐºÐµ Java. ÐÐ¿Ð¸ÑÐ°Ð½Ð° Ð¾Ð±ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÐºÐ° Ð´Ð°Ð½Ð½ÑÑ Ð¸Ð· Ð¸ÑÑÐ¾ÑÐ½Ð¸ÐºÐ° UCDP Ð´Ð»Ñ Ð¸ÑÐ¿Ð¾Ð»ÑÐ·Ð¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ Ð°Ð»Ð³Ð¾ÑÐ¸ÑÐ¼Ð°Ð¼Ð¸ Ð¼Ð°ÑÐ¸Ð½Ð½Ð¾Ð³Ð¾ Ð¾Ð±ÑÑÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ. Ð Ð°Ð·ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÐ°Ð½Ð° ÐºÐ»Ð¸ÐµÐ½Ñ-ÑÐµÑÐ²ÐµÑÐ½Ð°Ñ Ð°ÑÑÐ¸ÑÐµÐºÑÑÑÐ° Ð¿ÑÐ¾ÐµÐºÑÐ°. Ð ÐµÐ°Ð»Ð¸Ð·Ð¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð½Ð¾Ðµ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³ÑÐ°Ð¼Ð¼Ð½Ð¾Ðµ ÑÑÐµÐ´ÑÑÐ²Ð¾ Ð¾Ð±ÑÐ°ÑÐ°ÐµÑÑÑ Ðº Ð´Ð°Ð½Ð½ÑÐ¼ Ð¾ Ð¿Ð¾Ð»Ð¸ÑÐ¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¸Ñ ÑÐ¾Ð±ÑÑÐ¸ÑÑ Ð² Ð·Ð°Ð´Ð°Ð½Ð½ÑÑ ÑÑÑÐ°Ð½Ð°Ñ Ð·Ð° Ð¾Ð¿ÑÐµÐ´ÐµÐ»ÐµÐ½Ð½ÑÐ¹ Ð¿ÐµÑÐ¸Ð¾Ð´ Ð²ÑÐµÐ¼ÐµÐ½Ð¸, Ð¾Ð±ÑÐ°Ð±Ð°ÑÑÐ²Ð°ÐµÑ Ð¸Ñ Ð¸ Ð·Ð°ÑÐµÐ¼ Ð¸ÑÐ¿Ð¾Ð»ÑÐ·ÑÐµÑ Ð´Ð»Ñ Ð¿ÑÐµÐ´ÑÐºÐ°Ð·Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ð¹ Ð¿Ð¾Ð»Ð¸ÑÐ¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¸Ñ ÐºÐ¾Ð½ÑÐ»Ð¸ÐºÑÐ¾Ð². ÐÑÐ¸ ÑÐ°Ð·ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÐºÐµ Ð¸ÑÐ¿Ð¾Ð»ÑÐ·Ð¾Ð²Ð°Ð»ÑÑ Ð¿Ð°ÑÑÐµÑÐ½ Ð¿ÑÐ¾ÐµÐºÑÐ¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ Â«Ð¡ÑÑÐ°ÑÐµÐ³Ð¸ÑÂ» Ð´Ð»Ñ ÑÐµÐ°Ð»Ð¸Ð·Ð°ÑÐ¸Ð¸ Ð¸ÑÐ¿Ð¾Ð»ÑÐ·Ð¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ ÑÐ°Ð·Ð»Ð¸ÑÐ½ÑÑ Ð°Ð»Ð³Ð¾ÑÐ¸ÑÐ¼Ð¾Ð² Ð¼Ð°ÑÐ¸Ð½Ð½Ð¾Ð³Ð¾ Ð¾Ð±ÑÑÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ. Ð ÑÐºÑÐ¿ÐµÑÐ¸Ð¼ÐµÐ½ÑÐ°Ð»ÑÐ½Ð¾Ð¹ ÑÐ°ÑÑÐ¸ Ð¿Ð¾Ð»ÑÑÐµÐ½Ð½ÑÐµ Ð´Ð°Ð½Ð½ÑÐµ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð¾Ð² Ð¾ Ð¿Ð¾Ð»Ð¸ÑÐ¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¸Ñ ÐºÐ¾Ð½ÑÐ»Ð¸ÐºÑÐ°Ñ Ð² ÑÑÑÐ°Ð½Ð°Ñ ÐÑÑÐ¸ÐºÐ¸ Ð² ÑÐµÑÐµÐ½Ð¸Ðµ 5 Ð¼ÐµÑÑÑÐµÐ² ÑÑÐ°Ð²Ð½Ð¸Ð²Ð°ÑÑÑÑ Ñ ÑÐ°ÐºÑÐ¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¸Ð¼Ð¸ Ð´Ð°Ð½Ð½ÑÐ¼Ð¸. ÐÑÐ¸Ð²Ð¾Ð´ÑÑÑÑ ÑÐ°ÑÑÐµÑÑ Ð¼ÐµÑÑÐ¸Ðº ÑÐ¾ÑÐ½Ð¾ÑÑÐ¸ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð¾Ð² Ð´Ð»Ñ Ð´Ð²ÑÑ Ð°Ð»Ð³Ð¾ÑÐ¸ÑÐ¼Ð¾Ð²: ARIMA Ð¸ LSTM.
description: This work is devoted to research in the field of conflictology and forecasting of political conflicts. The existing sources, data models and tools for predicting events are described. Current approaches to time series forecasting have been studied. As a part of the work, a method for predicting conflicts is proposed, which is based on the use of ARIMA and LSTM algorithms. The proposed method was implemented in a Java software tool. The processing of data from the UCDP source for use by machine learning algorithms is described. The client-server architecture of the project has been developed. The implemented software tool accesses data on political events in specified countries for a certain period of time, processes them and then uses them to predict political conflicts. During the development, the "Strategy" design pattern was used to implement the use of various machine learning algorithms. In the experimental part, the data obtained from forecasts of political conflicts in African countries for 5 months are compared with the actual data. Calculations of prediction accuracy metrics for two algorithms are given: ARIMA and LSTM.