title: Offset credit supply potential for CORSIA
title: Offset credit supply potential for CORSIA
titleType: AlternativeTitle
Creators: name: Fearnehough, Harry
name: Warnecke, Carsten
name: Schneider, Lambert
Publisher: name: Umweltbundesamt
Year: 2020
Subjects: subject: Internationale Luftfahrt
subject: Corsia
subject: international aviation
subject: double counting
subject: Paris Agreement
subject: Article 6 of the Paris Agreement
subject: Climate | Energy

description: Die Internationale Zivilluftfahrtorganisation ist in der entscheidenden Phase zur Ausgestaltung eines globalen marktbasierten Klimaschutzinstruments (Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation, CORSIA) zur Verringerung von Kohlendioxidemissionen im internationalen Luftverkehr. In diesem Diskussionspapier ermitteln wir das potenziell zur Verfügung stehende Angebot an CO2-Ausgleichsgutschriften, um die Nachfrage aus dem internationalen Luftverkehr unter CORSIA zu bedienen. Die Abschätzungen berücksichtigen eine Reihe verschiedener Szenarien, die verschiedene Arten von Beschränkungen für die Inanspruchnahme von Ausgleichsgutschriften beinhalten. Unsere Analyse berücksichtigt das Angebot aus den vier größten Kompensationsprogrammen: dem Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), dem Verified Carbon Standard, dem Gold Standard und der Climate Action Reserve. Das Potenzial wird für Emissionsminderungen ermittelt, die im Zeitraum von 2013 bis 2035 erzielt werden können. Wir können aufzeigen, dass bereits bestehende Projekte im Rahmen der vier Programme etwa 18 Milliarden Minderungsgutschriften bereitstellen könnten. Dies entspricht mehr als das Sechsfache der für CORSIA erwarteten Gesamtnachfrage während der vorgesehenen Laufzeit. Ohne strenge Zulassungsbeschränkungen wird CORSIA nicht zu signifikanten Emissionsminderungen führen, die nicht auch ohne die Projekte aufgetreten wären. Dies resultiert daraus, dass mehr als 80 Prozent des Angebots aus Projekten stammen, die wahrscheinlich unabhängig davon, ob sie Emissionsgutschriften verkaufen, weiterlaufen werden und kontinuierlich Emissionen vermeiden. Gutschriften ohne anspruchsvolle Zulassungskriterien zuzulassen, würde daher das Ziel von CORSIA - ein kohlenstoffneutrales Wachstum zu erreichen - unterminieren. Um diesen Risiken zu begegnen, empfehlen wir den politischen Entscheidungsträgern, Zulassungsbeschränkungen zu etablieren, die entweder neue zusätzliche Minderungsprojekte fördern oder solche bestehenden Projekte unterstützen, die ohne die Erlöse aus Gutschriftenverkäufen die Treibhausgasminderungsaktivitäten einstellen müssten. Quelle: Forschungsbericht
description: The International Civil Aviation Organisation is in the process of finalising the design of a scheme - the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) - to address carbon dioxide emissions from international aviation. In this discussion paper we estimate the potential supply of carbon offset credits to meet demand from international aviation under CORSIA under a number of different scenarios which include different types of restrictions imposed on the eligibility of offset credits. Our analysis considers supply from the four largest offsetting programmes: the Clean Development Mechanism, the Verified Carbon Standard, the Gold Standard and the Climate Action Reserve for emission reductions over the period from 2013 to 2035. We find that existing projects under the four programmes could supply approximately 18 billion offset credits or more than six times the total demand anticipated for CORSIA over its intended duration. In the absence of robust eligibility restrictions, CORSIA will not result in significant emissions reductions beyond those that would occur without the scheme. This is because over 80 percent of the supply comes from projects that are likely to continue abatement regardless of whether they can sell offset credits. Allowing the use of all of these credits would therefore undermine the objective of the scheme to achieve carbon neutral growth. To address these risks, we recommend that policy-makers apply eligibility restrictions that either promote new emission reduction projects or support existing vulnerable projects that require offset credit revenues to continue GHG abatement. Quelle: Forschungsbericht
description: This discussion paper assesses how robust accounting could be implemented under the Paris Agreement in order to avoid double counting between nationally determined contributions (NDCs) and the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (⁠CORSIA⁠) implemented under the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO). The paper focuses on how host countries of carbon-offset projects can account for the use of offset credits under CORSIA by reporting 'adjustments' in the 'structured summaries' of their biennial transparency reports prepared under Article 13 of the Paris Agreement. The paper finds that several accounting approaches considered in the international negotiations on Article 6 of the Paris Agreement for international transfers of mitigation outcomes between countries cannot not be implemented in the specific context of CORSIA where the offset credits are used by airline operators or may not robustly avoid double counting. The paper identifies nine options for how the use of offset credits under CORSIA could be accounted for by host countries and discusses their advantages and disadvantages. The paper also evaluates options to account for single-year targets in the context of CORSIA, as well as options for consistent consideration of Global Warming Potentials used under CORSIA and nationally determined contributions under the Paris Agreement. The findings of the paper are important for the ongoing negotiations under the Paris Agreement on the rules for international transfers of mitigation outcomes under Article 6 and the implementation of 'structured summaries' under Article 13.