title: Ð¡Ð¾Ð²ÐµÑÑÐµÐ½ÑÑÐ²Ð¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ðµ Ð¼ÐµÑÐ¾Ð´Ð¸ÐºÐ¸ Ð¾ÑÐµÐ½ÐºÐ¸ Ð²ÐµÑÐ¾ÑÑÐ½Ð¾ÑÑÐ¸ Ð²Ð¾ÑÐ¿Ð»Ð°Ð¼ÐµÐ½ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ Ð¾Ð±Ð»Ð°ÐºÐ° Ñ ÑÑÐµÑÐ¾Ð¼ ÑÐ°Ð·Ð¼ÐµÑÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ Ð¸ÑÑÐ¾ÑÐ½Ð¸ÐºÐ¾Ð² Ð¿Ð¾ ÑÐµÑÑÐ¸ÑÐ¾ÑÐ¸Ð¸
title: Ð²ÑÐ¿ÑÑÐºÐ½Ð°Ñ ÐºÐ²Ð°Ð»Ð¸ÑÐ¸ÐºÐ°ÑÐ¸Ð¾Ð½Ð½Ð°Ñ ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÐ° Ð¼Ð°Ð³Ð¸ÑÑÑÐ°
titleType: Subtitle
title: Improving the methodology for estimating the probability of cloud ignition, taking into account the distribution of sources over the territory
Creators: name: Ð£ÑÐ°ÑÐµÐ½ÐºÐ¾, ÐÑÐ¸Ð½Ð°
Publisher: name: Ð¡Ð°Ð½ÐºÑ-ÐÐµÑÐµÑÐ±ÑÑÐ³ÑÐºÐ¸Ð¹ Ð¿Ð¾Ð»Ð¸ÑÐµÑÐ½Ð¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¸Ð¹ ÑÐ½Ð¸Ð²ÐµÑÑÐ¸ÑÐµÑ ÐÐµÑÑÐ° ÐÐµÐ»Ð¸ÐºÐ¾Ð³Ð¾
Year: 2023
Subjects: ÐÐµÐ·Ð¾Ð¿Ð°ÑÐ½Ð¾ÑÑÑ Ð¶Ð¸Ð·Ð½ÐµÐ´ÐµÑÑÐµÐ»ÑÐ½Ð¾ÑÑÐ¸ ÑÐµÐ»Ð¾Ð²ÐµÐºÐ°
ÑÐ¾Ð¿Ð»Ð¸Ð²Ð½Ð¾-Ð²Ð¾Ð·Ð´ÑÑÐ½Ð°Ñ ÑÐ¼ÐµÑÑ
Ð¾Ð±Ð»Ð°ÐºÐ¾ ÑÐ²Ñ
Ð¸ÑÑÐ¾ÑÐ½Ð¸ÐºÐ¸ Ð²Ð¾ÑÐ¿Ð»Ð°Ð¼ÐµÐ½ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ
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Ð²ÐµÑÐ¾ÑÑÐ½Ð¾ÑÑÑ Ð²Ð¾ÑÐ¿Ð»Ð°Ð¼ÐµÐ½ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ
ÑÐ°Ð·ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÐºÐ° Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³ÑÐ°Ð¼Ð¼
fuel-air mixture
vapor cloud explosion
ignition sources
wind
ignition probability
program development

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description: The topic of the final qualification work: Â«Improving the methodology for estimating the probability of cloud ignition, taking into account the distribution of sources over the territoryÂ». In this paper, a review and analysis of major accidents is carried out, because of which a cloud of a fuel-air mixture was formed with subsequent ignition. The causes and factors influencing the formation of a cloud and its explosion are considered. The methodological apparatus for assessing the consequences of explosions of fuel assemblies has been studied. The mathematical model of the technique for assessing the probability of ignition of an VCE has been improved, which considers the movement of the VCE across the territory, the change in sources falling into the region of the VCE depending on its movement, the probability of different wind directions, taking into account the wind rose of St. Petersburg. Using the modeling method, an algorithm was developed for estimating the probability of fuel assembly cloud ignition from various ignition sources distributed over the territory, taking into account the probability of different wind directions. When performing the final qualification work, the JetBrains Rider development environment was used, the code was written in the C # programming language, cloud movements were simulated using the Figma interface develop-ment service, algorithms were developed in the Miro interactive whiteboard, andvan Excel from the Microsoft Office package. As a result of the final qualification work, based on the analysis of existing methods for assessing the probability of ignition of emergency emissions of explosive liquids, taking into account the placement of the ignition source, the methodology has been improved in terms of taking into account the heterogeneity of the probability of implementing various wind directions.