The improbable scenario of Korean reunification : impacts on economy, society and geopolitics
Creators: name: Anderseck, Patrick
Publisher: name: ZHAW Zürcher Hochschule für Angewandte Wissenschaften
Year: 2023
Subjects: 320: Politik
330: Wirtschaft

description: A reunification of the globally interconnected democracy of South Korea and the isolated authoritarian regime of North Korea is highly improbable but would have significant implications not only for the region but also for the global community at large. 
Extremely unlikely events are often neglected, and their potential impacts disregarded. Such scenarios and their potential effects can be examined using the concept of improbable scenario analysis. Therefore, this paper aimed to apply the concept of improbable scenario analysis to the case of Korean reunification. The four most improbable reunification scenarios were determined and their implications on economy, society, and geopolitics were analyzed. 
To approach the aims of the paper a set of indicators was assigned to a predefined list of scenarios. Subsequently, an indicator-based plausibility assessment was conducted. Drawing on historical precedence and expert opinions, the plausibility of each indicator was evaluated, leading to the identification of the four least probable scenarios. The implications of each scenario were assessed based on a range of expert interviews. Additionally, implications for Switzerland were considered. 
This paper found that among the predefined list of scenarios, the three scenarios involving negotiations were determined to be the least probable. Following closely behind was the scenario of a North Korea-led unification. It was found that a North Korean invasion would leave lasting damages and significant economic disruptions to the world’s economy. North Korea would not have the means to integrate the conquered South into its system. An economic union would be mutually beneficial for the economies of North and South Korea. However, it was discovered that an economic union could have a detrimental impact on North Korea's stability. China, Russia, and the United States were identified as potentially supportive of an economic union, albeit to varying degrees. Conversely, Japan would be opposed to such a development and rejected the idea of an economic union. A political union was found to be inherently flawed on a social and geopolitical level and is likely to face significant challenges. The opposing views and conflicting interests among involved parties would create substantial clashes, making it difficult to reach a consensus and creating instability in the system. A single state reunification, despite its benefits of cheap labor and natural resources, would bring significant economic challenges and social implications, including discrimination, social confusion, and migration. China and Russia would oppose a South Korea-dominated reunification due to security concerns, while Japan has no interest in a stronger Korea, leaving the US as the main beneficiary. It was further found that Switzerland is not explicitly prepared for a Korean reunification but addresses potential thoughts and scenarios related to it. A peaceful reunification would bring cost savings and increased trade opportunities. However, a North Korean invasion would have negative impacts on Switzerland's exports and access to key goods.