Is a New Wave of International Terrorism Starting from Afghanistan or Syria?
Creators: name: Esmailzadeh, Yaser
Publisher: name: Zenodo
Year: 2024
Subjects: subject: ISIS
subject: IS
subject: Terrorism
subject: International Terrorism
subject: HTS
subject: Syria
subject: Afghanistan
subject: Counterterrorism
subject: Wave of Terrorism

description: The declaration of a ‘Global war on terror’ marked the most obvious but by no means the only response to the rise in international terrorism. But, Five years after the Islamic State lost its "caliphate," an enduring defeat has yet to be achieved. IS (Islamic State) has diminished, yet it remains a threat, with increased activity in various regions compared to the past. Notably, IS-K (Islamic State in Khorasan) operations in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran, and Russia exemplify this persistence.

Meanwhile, on a different front, the Syrian rebel group Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS- which broke ties with al-Qa‘ida) has emerged as a formidable force. In a surprising offensive in November 2024, HTS seized control of Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city, encountering minimal resistance from government forces. Long dominant in the country's northwest, HTS’s sudden capture of Aleppo stunned observers, including the group’s own leadership. Since then, HTS has advanced further south toward Damascus, igniting conflict in several towns and cities across Syria. However, as HTS celebrates its swift territorial gains, the group now faces the daunting challenge of holding these newly acquired areas. According to Jerome Drevon, a senior analyst on jihadism at the International Crisis Group, the Syrian army, bolstered by Russian and Iranian support, is preparing a counteroffensive. Governing and defending these territories will likely prove far more challenging for HTS and the allied armed factions, raising critical questions about the group's long-term prospects and governance capacity.
description: Analysis of the Fifth Scenario: IS as a Catalyst for the Fifth Wave of Terrorism

It appears that the fifth scenario, which considers IS as a catalyst for initiating the fifth wave of terrorism, is stronger and more probable.

 Following significant setbacks in 2019, ISIS intended to allocate time for revival, respiration, and rejuvenation based on the strategy of some theorists, such as Abu Bakr al-Naji, who explained in the book “The Management of Savagery (2004)”. After the establishment of the Taliban in Afghanistan in 2021, IS-K's operations and its media activities breathed new life into the weakened body of IS. In the years 2023 and 2024, IS managed to carry out some of the most impactful operations geographically in Iran and Russia. These operations were unprecedented in terms of casualties and the style of terrorist operation design, posing a significant security challenge.

Now, following IS-K's terrorist attack on Russia, it seems that global observers' attention will turn towards jihadist and extremist groups. We may witness further operations in Central Asia, and the Middle East, and even resort to strategies like “lone wolves” and “self-initiated fighters”. It is hoped that there will be greater convergence in global counterterrorism policies to prevent terrorism from exploiting the lack of convergence in counterterrorism models and their various diversities.

Moreover, the renewed activity of Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and allied rebel factions in northern Syria—particularly in strategic areas such as Aleppo province—may signal the onset of a new jihadist wave. Should these groups mobilize militants from Syria, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Central Asia, and beyond, the potential for a unified Takfiri front could materialize, significantly heightening the risk of a global jihadist resurgence.

In sum, the prospect of convergence between IS-K and HTS, or similar factions, could facilitate the emergence of a formidable transnational jihadist coalition. Such a scenario would pose a grave threat not only to the Middle East but to global security as a whole, underscoring the imperative for a cohesive, multidimensional counterterrorism response.