The NANOGrav 15 yr Data Set: Looking for Signs of Discreteness in the Gravitational-wave Background
Creators: name: Agazie, Gabriella
name: Anumarlapudi, Akash
name: Archibald, Anne M.
name: Arzoumanian, Zaven
name: Baier, Jeremy George
name: Baker, Paul T.
name: Bécsy, Bence
name: Blecha, Laura
name: Brazier, Adam
name: Brook, Paul R.
name: Brown, Lucas
name: Burke-Spolaor, Sarah
name: Casey-Clyde, J. Andrew
name: Charisi, Maria
name: Chatterjee, Shami
name: Cohen, Tyler
name: Cordes, James M.
name: Cornish, Neil J.
name: Crawford, Fronefield
name: Cromartie, H. Thankful
name: Crowter, Kathryn
name: DeCesar, Megan E.
name: Demorest, Paul B.
name: Deng, Heling
name: Dolch, Timothy
name: Ferrara, Elizabeth C.
name: Fiore, William
name: Fonseca, Emmanuel
name: Freedman, Gabriel E.
name: Garver-Daniels, Nate
name: Gentile, Peter A.
name: Glaser, Joseph
name: Good, Deborah C.
name: Gültekin, Kayhan
name: Hazboun, Jeffrey S.
name: Jennings, Ross J.
name: Johnson, Aaron D.
name: Jones, Megan L.
name: Kaiser, Andrew R.
name: Kaplan, David L.
name: Kelley, Luke Zoltan
name: Kerr, Matthew
name: Key, Joey S.
name: Laal, Nima
name: Lam, Michael T.
name: Lamb, William G.
name: Larsen, Bjorn
name: Lazio, T. Joseph W.
name: Lewandowska, Natalia
name: Liu, Tingting
name: Lorimer, Duncan R.
name: Luo, Jing
name: Lynch, Ryan S.
name: Ma, Chung-Pei
name: Madison, Dustin R.
name: McEwen, Alexander
name: McKee, James W.
name: McLaughlin, Maura A.
name: McMann, Natasha
name: Meyers, Bradley W.
name: Meyers, Patrick M.
name: Mingarelli, Chiara M. F.
name: Mitridate, Andrea
name: Natarajan, Priyamvada
name: Ng, Cherry
name: Nice, David J.
name: Ocker, Stella Koch
name: Olum, Ken D.
name: Pennucci, Timothy T.
name: Perera, Benetge B. P.
name: Pol, Nihan S.
name: Radovan, Henri A.
name: Ransom, Scott M.
name: Ray, Paul S.
name: Romano, Joseph D.
name: Runnoe, Jessie C.
name: Sardesai, Shashwat C.
name: Schmiedekamp, Ann
name: Schmiedekamp, Carl
name: Schmitz, Kai
name: Shapiro-Albert, Brent
name: Siemens, Xavier
name: Simon, Joseph
name: Siwek, Magdalena S.
name: Fiscella, Sophia V. Sosa
name: Stairs, Ingrid H.
name: Stinebring, Daniel R.
name: Stovall, Kevin
name: Susobhanan, Abhimanyu
name: Swiggum, Joseph K.
name: Taylor, Stephen R.
name: Turner, Jacob E.
name: Unal, Caner
name: Vallisneri, Michele
name: Vigeland, Sarah J.
name: Wahl, Haley M.
name: Willson, London
name: Witt, Caitlin A.
name: Wright, David
name: Young, Olivia
Publisher: name: arXiv
Year: 2024
Subjects: subject: High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena (astro-ph.HE)
subject: Astrophysics of Galaxies (astro-ph.GA)
subject: FOS: Physical sciences
subject: FOS: Physical sciences

description: The cosmic merger history of supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs) is expected to produce a low-frequency gravitational wave background (GWB). Here we investigate how signs of the discrete nature of this GWB can manifest in pulsar timing arrays through excursions from, and breaks in, the expected $f_{\mathrm{GW}}^{-2/3}$ power-law of the GWB strain spectrum. To do this, we create a semi-analytic SMBHB population model, fit to NANOGrav's 15 yr GWB amplitude, and with 1,000 realizations we study the populations' characteristic strain and residual spectra. Comparing our models to the NANOGrav 15 yr spectrum, we find two interesting excursions from the power-law. The first, at $2 \; \mathrm{nHz}$, is below our GWB realizations with $p$-value significance $p = 0.05$ to $0.06$ ($\approx 1.8 σ- 1.9 σ$). The second, at $16 \; \mathrm{nHz}$, is above our GWB realizations with $p = 0.04$ to $0.15$ ($\approx 1.4 σ- 2.1 σ$). We explore the properties of a loud SMBHB which could cause such an excursion. Our simulations also show that the expected number of SMBHBs decreases by three orders of magnitude, from $\sim 10^6$ to $\sim 10^3$, between $2\; \mathrm{nHz}$ and $20 \; \mathrm{nHz}$. This causes a break in the strain spectrum as the stochasticity of the background breaks down at $26^{+28}_{-19} \; \mathrm{nHz}$, consistent with predictions pre-dating GWB measurements. The diminished GWB signal from SMBHBs at frequencies above the $26~\mathrm{nHz}$ break opens a window for PTAs to detect continuous GWs from individual SMBHBs or GWs from the early universe.
description: 13 pages, 8 figures, 2 appendices, in press at ApJ