The Occurrence of Rocky Habitable Zone Planets Around Solar-Like Stars from Kepler Data
Creators: name: Bryson, Steve
name: Kunimoto, Michelle
name: Kopparapu, Ravi K.
name: Coughlin, Jeffrey L.
name: Borucki, William J.
name: Koch, David
name: Aguirre, Victor Silva
name: Allen, Christopher
name: Barentsen, Geert
name: Batalha, Natalie. M.
name: Berger, Travis
name: Boss, Alan
name: Buchhave, Lars A.
name: Burke, Christopher J.
name: Caldwell, Douglas A.
name: Campbell, Jennifer R.
name: Catanzarite, Joseph
name: Chandrasekharan, Hema
name: Chaplin, William J.
name: Christiansen, Jessie L.
name: Christensen-Dalsgaard, Jorgen
name: Ciardi, David R.
name: Clarke, Bruce D.
name: Cochran, William D.
name: Dotson, Jessie L.
name: Doyle, Laurance R.
name: Duarte, Eduardo Seperuelo
name: Dunham, Edward W.
name: Dupree, Andrea K.
name: Endl, Michael
name: Fanson, James L.
name: Ford, Eric B.
name: Fujieh, Maura
name: Gautier, Thomas N.
name: Geary, John C.
name: Gilliland, Ronald L
name: Girouard, Forrest R.
name: Gould, Alan
name: Haas, Michael R.
name: Henze, Christopher E.
name: Holman, Matthew J.
name: Howard, Andrew
name: Howell, Steve B.
name: Huber, Daniel
name: Hunter, Roger C.
name: Jenkins, Jon M.
name: Kjeldsen, Hans
name: Kolodziejczak, Jeffery
name: Larson, Kipp
name: Latham, David W.
name: Li, Jie
name: Mathur, Savita
name: Meibom, Soren
name: Middour, Chris
name: Morris, Robert L.
name: Morton, Timothy D.
name: Mullally, Fergal
name: Mullally, Susan E.
name: Pletcher, David
name: Prsa, Andrej
name: Quinn, Samuel N.
name: Quintana, Elisa V.
name: Ragozzine, Darin
name: Ramirez, Solange V.
name: Sanderfer, Dwight T.
name: Sasselov, Dimitar
name: Seader, Shawn E.
name: Shabram, Megan
name: Shporer, Avi
name: Smith, Jeffrey C.
name: Steffen, Jason H.
name: Still, Martin
name: Torres, Guillermo
name: Troeltzsch, John
name: Twicken, Joseph D.
name: Uddin, Akm Kamal
name: Van Cleve, Jeffrey E.
name: Voss, Janice
name: Weiss, Lauren
name: Welsh, William F.
name: Wohler, Bill
name: Zamudio, Khadeejah A
Publisher: name: arXiv
Year: 2020
Subjects: subject: Earth and Planetary Astrophysics (astro-ph.EP)
subject: Solar and Stellar Astrophysics (astro-ph.SR)
subject: FOS: Physical sciences
subject: FOS: Physical sciences

description: We present occurrence rates for rocky planets in the habitable zones (HZ) of main-sequence dwarf stars based on the Kepler DR25 planet candidate catalog and Gaia-based stellar properties. We provide the first analysis in terms of star-dependent instellation flux, which allows us to track HZ planets. We define $η_\oplus$ as the HZ occurrence of planets with radius between 0.5 and 1.5 $R_\oplus$ orbiting stars with effective temperatures between 4800 K and 6300 K. We find that $η_\oplus$ for the conservative HZ is between $0.37^{+0.48}_{-0.21}$ (errors reflect 68\% credible intervals) and $0.60^{+0.90}_{-0.36}$ planets per star, while the optimistic HZ occurrence is between $0.58^{+0.73}_{-0.33}$ and $0.88^{+1.28}_{-0.51}$ planets per star. These bounds reflect two extreme assumptions about the extrapolation of completeness beyond orbital periods where DR25 completeness data are available. The large uncertainties are due to the small number of detected small HZ planets. We find similar occurrence rates using both a Poisson likelihood Bayesian analysis and Approximate Bayesian Computation. Our results are corrected for catalog completeness and reliability. Both completeness and the planet occurrence rate are dependent on stellar effective temperature. We also present occurrence rates for various stellar populations and planet size ranges. We estimate with $95\%$ confidence that, on average, the nearest HZ planet around G and K dwarfs is about 6 pc away, and there are about 4 HZ rocky planets around G and K dwarfs within 10 pc of the Sun.
description: To appear in The Astronomical Journal