Managing water in Jordan : an interactive system dynamics simulation approach
Creators: name: Shawwash, Ziad K. Elias
Publisher: name: University of British Columbia
Year: 2009

description: Jordan now stands at the door step of a major water crisis. The country does not have enough water for its desired standard of living; nor for the additional jobs and income that should accompany the development of industry, services, and tourism; nor for more irrigation to expand food output for domestic consumption and export earnings. Besides water scarcity and rapid population growth, Jordan faces severe water problems and needs new water policies and management methodologies to achieve sustainable development of its water resources. Problems include overdrafting and contamination of aquifers, uneven distribution of supplies, shared water resources, and high cost of development of new supplies. On top of these problems, water managers and current water management practices have not evolved to meet the present and future challenges facing the water sector in Jordan. Management practices have traditionally relied on developing additional water supplies, while financial and water allocation practices relied on conventional management approaches. This thesis recognized that an appropriate water management framework is urgently needed to prevent the social and economic disruptions that could accompany the anticipated water crisis. The thesis attempted to devise a water management framework and a testing platform for Jordan's alternative water management strategies. A review of historic developments in water management approaches has led to a proposed intermediate water management framework aimed at initiating an experimental process with the objective of reaching a suitable long-term water management framework for Jordan. The proposed intermediate framework consists of four components: a set of water sector' objectives governing the day-to-day operations as well as water management strategies; a unified policy and decision analysis framework; a unified criteria for the evaluation of alternative water management strategies; and a System Dynamics approach for problem identification and the analysis of change. This study focused on the last two components of the intermediate framework: a unified criteria and the System Dynamics approach. An interactive System Dynamics simulation system portraying the complex structure of the water sector provided a platform for "testing" alternative water management strategies in Jordan. A collection of important outputs from the simulation system was used to formulate "Performance Indicators." One or more of these indicators could serve to measure the achievement of the objectives of the water sector. The proposed intermediate water management framework, and the interactive System Dynamics simulation system, described in this thesis, are believed to go a long way towards improving water management practices in Jordan. The basic methodologies underlying these management techniques are not too difficult to understand. The availability of interactive computer software packages, such as STELLA II, could prove to be of great value to enhance the ability of water managers and decision makers to take better decisions and to better understand and manage this complex resource in an efficient, survivable and sustainable way. This study provides four specific suggestions for follow up work needed to improve the simulation system: uncertainty analysis; expansion and verification of the simulation system; the dynamics of decision-making; and, the use of interactive simulation environments in water management.