title: ÐÑÑÐ»ÐµÐ´Ð¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ðµ Ð²Ð»Ð¸ÑÐ½Ð¸Ñ Ð¼Ð°ÐºÑÐ¾ÑÐºÐ¾Ð½Ð¾Ð¼Ð¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¸Ñ ÑÐ°ÐºÑÐ¾ÑÐ¾Ð² Ð½Ð° Ð´Ð¸Ð½Ð°Ð¼Ð¸ÐºÑ ÑÐ¾Ð½Ð´Ð¾Ð²Ð¾Ð³Ð¾ ÑÑÐ½ÐºÐ° ÐÐ¸ÑÐ°Ñ Ð½Ð° Ð¾ÑÐ½Ð¾Ð²Ðµ ÑÐµÐ¾ÑÐ¸Ð¸ ÐºÐ¾Ð¸Ð½ÑÐµÐ³ÑÐ°ÑÐ¸Ð¸
title: Ð²ÑÐ¿ÑÑÐºÐ½Ð°Ñ ÐºÐ²Ð°Ð»Ð¸ÑÐ¸ÐºÐ°ÑÐ¸Ð¾Ð½Ð½Ð°Ñ ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÐ° Ð¼Ð°Ð³Ð¸ÑÑÑÐ°
titleType: Subtitle
title: Study of the influence of macroeconomic factors on the dynamics of the china stock market based on the theory of cointeg ration
Creators: name: Ð§Ð¶Ð°Ð¾ Ð¦ÑÐ½Ñ
Publisher: name: Ð¡Ð°Ð½ÐºÑ-ÐÐµÑÐµÑÐ±ÑÑÐ³ÑÐºÐ¸Ð¹ Ð¿Ð¾Ð»Ð¸ÑÐµÑÐ½Ð¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¸Ð¹ ÑÐ½Ð¸Ð²ÐµÑÑÐ¸ÑÐµÑ ÐÐµÑÑÐ° ÐÐµÐ»Ð¸ÐºÐ¾Ð³Ð¾
Year: 2022
Subjects: ÑÐ¾Ð½Ð´Ð¾Ð²ÑÐµ ÑÑÐ½ÐºÐ¸
Ð¼Ð°ÑÑÐ¾ÑÐºÐ¾Ð½Ð¾Ð¼Ð¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¸Ðµ ÑÐ°ÐºÑÐ¾ÑÑ
ÐºÐ¾Ð¸Ð½ÑÐµÐ³ÑÐ°ÑÐ¸Ñ
stock markets
macroeconomic factors
cointegration

description: Ð­ÑÐ¾ Ð¸ÑÑÐ»ÐµÐ´Ð¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ðµ ÑÐ¼Ð¿Ð¸ÑÐ¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¸ Ð¸Ð·ÑÑÐ°ÐµÑ ÑÐ°ÐºÑÐ¾ÑÑ, Ð²Ð»Ð¸ÑÑÑÐ¸Ðµ Ð½Ð° Ð²Ð¾Ð»Ð°ÑÐ¸Ð»ÑÐ½Ð¾ÑÑÑ ÑÐ¾Ð½Ð´Ð¾Ð²Ð¾Ð³Ð¾ ÑÑÐ½ÐºÐ° ÐÐ¸ÑÐ°Ñ Ñ Ð¿Ð¾Ð¼Ð¾ÑÑÑ Ð¼Ð¾Ð´ÐµÐ»Ð¸ VAR, Ð¸ Ð¿ÑÐµÐ´Ð»Ð°Ð³Ð°ÐµÑ ÑÑÑÐµÐºÑÐ¸Ð²Ð½ÑÐµ Ð¼ÐµÑÑ Ð´Ð»Ñ ÑÐ³Ð»ÑÐ±Ð»ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ Ð¿Ð¾Ð½Ð¸Ð¼Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ ÑÐ¾Ð½Ð´Ð¾Ð²Ð¾Ð³Ð¾ ÑÑÐ½ÐºÐ° ÐÐ¸ÑÐ°Ñ, Ð¿ÑÐµÐ´Ð¾ÑÑÐ°Ð²Ð»ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ Ð½ÐµÐºÐ¾ÑÐ¾ÑÑÑ ÑÑÑÐ»Ð¾Ðº Ð½Ð° Ð½ÐµÐ³Ð¾ Ð¸ Ð¾Ð±Ð¾Ð³Ð°ÑÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÑÐ¾Ð¾ÑÐ²ÐµÑÑÑÐ²ÑÑÑÐ¸Ñ ÑÐµÐ¾ÑÐ¸Ð¹ Ð²Ð»Ð¸ÑÑÑÐ¸Ñ ÑÐ°ÐºÑÐ¾ÑÐ¾Ð². ÐÐ±ÑÐµÐºÑÐ¾Ð¼ Ð¸Ð·ÑÑÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÑÐ²Ð»ÑÐµÑÑÑÂ Shanghai Composite Index Ð² Ð¿ÐµÑÐ¸Ð¾Ð´ Ñ 2016 Ð¿Ð¾ 2021 Ð³Ð¾Ð´. ÐÐ°ÐºÑÐ¾ÑÐºÐ¾Ð½Ð¾Ð¼Ð¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¸Ð¼Ð¸ ÑÐ°ÐºÑÐ¾ÑÐ°Ð¼Ð¸, Ð²Ð»Ð¸ÑÑÑÐ¸Ð¼Ð¸ Ð½Ð° ÑÐ¾Ð½Ð´Ð¾Ð²ÑÐ¹ Ð¸Ð½Ð´ÐµÐºÑ,Â  ÑÐ²Ð»ÑÑÑÑÑ: ÑÐºÐ¾Ð½Ð¾Ð¼Ð¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¸Ð¹ Ð¸Ð½Ð´ÐµÐºÑ Ð½Ð°ÑÑÑÐ¾ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ð¹ (JQ), Ð¸Ð½Ð´ÐµÐºÑ Ð¿Ð¾ÑÑÐµÐ±Ð¸ÑÐµÐ»ÑÑÐºÐ¸Ñ ÑÐµÐ½ (ÐÐÐ¦), Ð´ÐµÐ½ÐµÐ¶Ð½Ð°Ñ Ð¼Ð°ÑÑÐ° (Ð2) Ð¸ Ð¾Ð±ÑÐ¸Ð¹ Ð¾Ð±ÑÐµÐ¼ ÑÐ¾Ð·Ð½Ð¸ÑÐ½ÑÑ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð´Ð°Ð¶ Ð¿Ð¾ÑÑÐµÐ±Ð¸ÑÐµÐ»ÑÑÐºÐ¸Ñ ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°ÑÐ¾Ð² (ÐÑÐ¾Ð´Ð°Ð¶Ð°). Ð£ÑÑÐ°Ð½Ð¾Ð²Ð»ÐµÐ½Ð¾, ÑÑÐ¾ Ð¨Ð°Ð½ÑÐ°Ð¹ÑÐºÐ¸Ð¹ ÑÐ²Ð¾Ð´Ð½ÑÐ¹ Ð¸Ð½Ð´ÐµÐºÑ Ð¸Ð¼ÐµÐµÑ ÐºÐ¾Ð¸Ð½ÑÐµÐ³ÑÐ°ÑÐ¸Ð¾Ð½Ð½ÑÑ ÑÐ²ÑÐ·Ñ Ñ Ð¸Ð½Ð´ÐµÐºÑÐ¾Ð¼ Ð¿Ð¾ÑÑÐµÐ±Ð¸ÑÐµÐ»ÑÑÐºÐ¸Ñ ÑÐµÐ½, Ð´ÐµÐ½ÐµÐ¶Ð½Ð¾Ð¹ Ð¼Ð°ÑÑÐ¾Ð¹, Ð¸Ð½Ð´ÐµÐºÑÐ¾Ð¼ ÑÐºÐ¾Ð½Ð¾Ð¼Ð¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¾Ð³Ð¾ ÐºÐ»Ð¸Ð¼Ð°ÑÐ° Ð¸ Ð¾Ð±ÑÐ¸Ð¼ Ð¾Ð±ÑÐµÐ¼Ð¾Ð¼ ÑÐ¾Ð·Ð½Ð¸ÑÐ½ÑÑ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð´Ð°Ð¶ Ð¿Ð¾ÑÑÐµÐ±Ð¸ÑÐµÐ»ÑÑÐºÐ¸Ñ ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°ÑÐ¾Ð². Ð­ÑÐ¾Ñ ÑÐµÐ·ÑÐ»ÑÑÐ°ÑÂ ÑÐºÐ°Ð·ÑÐ²Ð°ÐµÑ Ð½Ð° ÑÐ¾, ÑÑÐ¾ Ð¨Ð°Ð½ÑÐ°Ð¹ÑÐºÐ¸Ð¹ ÑÐ²Ð¾Ð´Ð½ÑÐ¹ Ð¸Ð½Ð´ÐµÐºÑ Ð¸Ð¼ÐµÐµÑ Ð´Ð¾Ð»Ð³Ð¾ÑÑÐ¾ÑÐ½ÑÑ ÑÐ°Ð²Ð½Ð¾Ð²ÐµÑÐ½ÑÑ ÑÐ²ÑÐ·Ñ Ñ ÑÑÐ¸Ð¼Ð¸ Ð¿ÐµÑÐµÐ¼ÐµÐ½Ð½ÑÐ¼Ð¸ Ð¸ ÐºÑÐ°ÑÐºÐ¾ÑÑÐ¾ÑÐ½ÑÑ ÑÐ²ÑÐ·Ñ. Ð¼ÐµÐ¶Ð´Ñ Ð½Ð¸Ð¼Ð¸ Ð½Ðµ Ð¾ÑÐµÐ²Ð¸Ð´Ð½Ð¾. Ð¡ Ð¿Ð¾Ð¼Ð¾ÑÑÑ Ð°Ð½Ð°Ð»Ð¸Ð·Ð° ÑÑÐ½ÐºÑÐ¸Ð¸ Ð¸Ð¼Ð¿ÑÐ»ÑÑÐ½Ð¾Ð³Ð¾ Ð¾ÑÐºÐ»Ð¸ÐºÐ° Ð¿Ð¾ÐºÐ°Ð·Ð°Ð½Ð¾, ÑÑÐ¾ Ð¨Ð°Ð½ÑÐ°Ð¹ÑÐºÐ¸Ð¹ ÑÐ¾ÑÑÐ°Ð²Ð½Ð¾Ð¹ Ð¸Ð½Ð´ÐµÐºÑ Ð½Ðµ Ð² Ð¿Ð¾Ð»Ð½Ð¾Ð¹ Ð¼ÐµÑÐµ Ð¾ÑÑÐ°Ð¶Ð°ÐµÑ Ð´ÐµÐ½ÐµÐ¶Ð½Ð¾-ÐºÑÐµÐ´Ð¸ÑÐ½ÑÑ Ð¿Ð¾Ð»Ð¸ÑÐ¸ÐºÑ, Ð¿Ð¾ÑÐ¾Ð¼Ñ ÑÑÐ¾ Ð½Ð° ÑÑÐ½ÐºÐµ Ð¼Ð½Ð¾Ð³Ð¾ Ð¸Ð½ÑÐ¾ÑÐ¼Ð°ÑÐ¸Ð¾Ð½Ð½Ð¾Ð³Ð¾ "ÑÑÐ¼Ð°", ÐºÐ¾ÑÐ¾ÑÑÐ¹, Ð²ÐµÑÐ¾ÑÑÐ½Ð¾, Ð±ÑÐ´ÐµÑ Ð¿ÑÐµÐ¿ÑÑÑÑÐ²Ð¾Ð²Ð°ÑÑ Ð°Ð´ÐµÐºÐ²Ð°ÑÐ½Ð¾Ð¹ Ð¿ÐµÑÐµÐ´Ð°ÑÐµ Ð¿Ð¾Ð»Ð¸ÑÐ¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¸Ñ ÑÐ¾Ð±ÑÑÐ¸Ð¹.Â ÐÑÐ´Ð²Ð¸Ð³Ð°ÑÑÑÑ ÑÐ¾Ð¾ÑÐ²ÐµÑÑÑÐ²ÑÑÑÐ¸Ðµ Ð¿ÑÐµÐ´Ð»Ð¾Ð¶ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ Ñ Ð¿Ð¾Ð·Ð¸ÑÐ¸Ð¹ ÑÐºÐ¾Ð½Ð¾Ð¼Ð¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¾Ð¹ Ð¿Ð¾Ð»Ð¸ÑÐ¸ÐºÐ¸, ÐºÐ¾Ð¼Ð¿Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ð¹ Ð¸ Ð¸Ð½Ð²ÐµÑÑÐ¾ÑÐ¾Ð², Ð² Ð½Ð°Ð´ÐµÐ¶Ð´Ðµ Ð½Ð° Ð¿ÑÐ¾ÑÑÐ½ÐµÐ½Ð¸ÐµÂ  Ð¼ÐµÑÐ°Ð½Ð¸Ð·Ð¼Ð° Ð²Ð·Ð°Ð¸Ð¼Ð¾ÑÐ²ÑÐ·Ð¸ Ð¼ÐµÐ¶Ð´Ñ ÑÐ¾Ð½Ð´Ð¾Ð²ÑÐ¼ ÑÑÐ½ÐºÐ¾Ð¼ ÐÐ¸ÑÐ°Ñ Ð¸ Ð¼Ð°ÐºÑÐ¾ÑÐºÐ¾Ð½Ð¾Ð¼Ð¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¸Ð¼Ð¸ ÑÐ°ÐºÑÐ¾ÑÐ°Ð¼Ð¸.
description: This study empirically studies the factors influencing the volatility of the Chinese stock market using the VAR model, and proposes effective measures to deepen the understanding of the Chinese stock market, provide some references to it, and enrich the relevant theories of the influencing factors. The object of study is the Shanghai Composite Index in the period from 2016 to 2021. Macroeconomic factors affecting the stock index are: economic sentiment index (JQ), consumer price index (CPI), money supply (M2) and total retail sales of consumer goods (Sales). It has been established that the Shanghai Composite Index has a cointegrating relationship with the consumer price index, money supply, economic climate index and total retail sales of consumer goods. This result indicates that the Shanghai Composite Index has a long-term equilibrium relationship with these variables and a short-term relationship. between them is not clear.Using the analysis of the impulse response function, it is shown that the Shanghai Composite Index does not fully reflect monetary policy, because there is a lot of information "noise" in the market, which is likely to prevent an adequate transmission of political events. Relevant proposals are put forward from the standpoint of economic policy, companies and investors, in the hope of clarifying the mechanism of the relationship between the Chinese stock market and macroeconomic factors.