Resolving coastal tensions or living with conflict. What is the fate of Tasmania’s coasts?
Creators: name: Condie, Corrine
Publisher: name: University of Tasmania
Year: 2024

description: Globally, conflict over the use of coastal and marine areas has increased with population and economic expansion. This conflict often manifests as an extended struggle, where the actions of opposing stakeholder groups fragments local communities and ultimately leads to increased industry cost structures. For many industries in the blue economy, managing stakeholder conflict represents their most critical and perplexing challenge; and for many company’s the understanding and management of stakeholder perceptions and expectations has become central to achieving a satisfactory ‘triple bottom line’. <br>This thesis investigates marine-based conflict through the lens of the Tasmanian salmon aquaculture industry. The industry experienced a 25-year period of ‘enviable social licence’, followed by a two-year period of stakeholder concern, before a sudden and catastrophic tipping point into high conflict. The study has identified the drivers of this conflict and explored how effective communication can influence conflict levels. <br>The thesis is presented as 6 integrated journal articles (5 published, 1 submitted): <br>(1) <i>Increasing polarisation in attitudes to aquaculture – evidence from sequential government inquiries</i>. <br>This study identified the level, intensity, and complexity of the Tasmanian salmon aquaculture conflict. A qualitative content analysis (QCA) was used to analyse the submissions to two government inquiries into the Tasmanian salmon industry. Results indicated that from 2015 to 2019/20 there was an increasing polarisation of stakeholder attitudes across key issues, and an increasingly negative stance towards salmon farming in Tasmania. Communication was the key issue raised by stakeholders. Those in the precautionary segment asserted that inadequate levels of communication including a lack of accessible credible information, open public consultation, and a transparency in decision-making had further eroded public trust and entrenched conflict. However, those in the pro-industry segment cited numerous improvements in their communication outreach and farming practices over this period. This suggested that there was a lack of constructive and informed dialogue between these segments, and a lack of understanding of their knowledge needs and/or their communication networks. <br>(2) <i>The long-term evolution of news media in defining socio-ecological conflict – a case study of expanding aquaculture</i>. <br>A QCA of salmon related articles in all Tasmanian newspapers (1986-2022) was used to describe the evolution of conflict over the Tasmanian salmon industry lifecycle (ILC). It illustrated that broadcast media helped mould community opinion through agenda setting and risk framing techniques. By constraining the media to positive associations in the introduction and early growth stage of the ILC, managing agencies and salmon companies: (i) eroded public trust by contributing to reader ambiguity and uncertainty as to the industry’s environmental credentials and partnerships; (ii) failed to promote an open dialogue and a more informed community with regard to the real benefits and risks of finfish aquaculture; and (iii) created a situation in which the persuasive effect on public opinion post-turning point was magnified. <br>(3) <i>Polarised perspectives in salmon aquaculture warrant a targeted long-term approach to communication.</i> <br>This study used a state-wide self-administered stakeholder survey to measure the structure and relative position of stakeholder groups in the Tasmanian salmon debate. Results indicated high levels of knowledge seeking behaviour across all stakeholder groups; significant differences in stakeholder perceptions on impact and trust attributes; relatively high levels of attitudinal certainty; and large gaps in the accessibility, digestibility and credibility of the current information provision. Furthermore, systemic issues such as source legitimacy and credibility, message discrepancy, and misinformation were not being addressed. These results supported a strategic approach to communication, one which encompasses long-term planning with an emphasis on: managing stakeholder concerns; supporting the dissemination of inter- and intra-stakeholder information and data sharing; increasing levels of marine literacy across communities; and building trust in the industry. <br>(4) <i>Stochastic events can explain sustained clustering and polarisation of opinions in social networks.</i> <br>This study illustrated that in high conflict situations such as Tasmanian salmon aquaculture, the clustering and polarisation of community opinions tends to emerge when individuals are not only influenced by other individuals, but also by external events that influence individuals synchronistically over a limited period of time. This breakthrough result was instrumental to the successful development of the socio-ecological influence model (SIEM). <br>(5) <i>Reducing socio-ecological conflict using social influence modelling. </i><br>Here we developed a social influence model (SIEM) that at the community level was able to hindcast the transition from population consensus to high conflict discourse, including replicating major tipping points (ensemble mean opinion r = 0.71; and mean ensemble conflict r = 0.98). The model provided a suitable platform with which to test alternative communication strategies aimed at reducing conflict within a single community. Results indicated that: (i) Persuasive advocacy was found to be ineffective and often counterproductive; (ii) Meaningful engagement, collaborative learning and improved scientific literacy was effective in moderating opinions and reducing conflict. (iii) When messaging was targeted too narrowly or too infrequently, it was negated by ongoing exchange of misinformation within the population. <br>(6) <i>Reducing conflict between stakeholder groups using social influence modelling </i><br>Here SIEM was developed into a stakeholder model. This model was able to hindcast the transition from population consensus to high conflict discourse at the stakeholder level, including replicating the major tipping points (ensemble mean opinion r = 0.63; and mean ensemble conflict r = 0.97). This approach has allowed the responses of different stakeholders and their contribution to overall conflict to be explored under alternative communication strategies. Results indicate that counter-attitudinal persuasive advertising can influence opinions, however its inevitable use by both sides of the debate increases conflict. In contrast, strategies to improve marine literacy resulted in more positive stakeholder opinions and a reduction in community conflict. Further reductions in conflict were achieved through collaborative learning (involving key stakeholder groups), combined with broad dissemination of outcomes relating to industry performance on social and environmental issues. However, the perceived legitimacy of such initiatives depends on depoliticising the debate to address issues around regulatory capture. <br>These results support a strategic approach to communication: emphasising the management of stakeholder concerns; addressing information gaps within and between stakeholder groups; improving marine literacy levels; and building trust across the sector. However, this approach will necessitate that salmon companies move away from seeking to control the debate towards actively eliciting and acting on community views, even where it involves some perceived short-term vulnerability. It will also require political leaders to exit the debate and allow managing agencies to be perceived in their legitimate role as impartial planners and regulators. Finally, the more active engagement of science will be critical, not only in moderating and re-framing the debate, but also in promoting collective learning with regard to marine environments and the accurate assessment of the impacts of salmon farming. <br>While the underlying methods and lessons on effective communication have been demonstrated in the context of the historical development of Tasmania’s salmon aquaculture, the approach is considered to be relevant to a broad range of environmental conflicts.