Electoral Governance: Examining the Effects of Elections on Human Development in Africa
Creators: name: Adamu Fika, Hadiza
Publisher: name: University of Surrey
Year: 2023

description: Studies have shown that improvements in human development under democratic institutions are often attributed to electoral contestation (Gerring et al, 2020; Harding and Wantchekon, 2010; Lake and Baum, 2001; Miller, 2015). Whether this improvement applies to all kinds of elections remains unanswered. This study revisits the debates on multiparty elections (within an authoritarian context- elections conducted with more than one political party but does not take into account the integrity of elections in the process, therefore, the concept of multiparty elections refers to multiparty fraudulent elections) on the one hand, and free and fair multiparty elections on the other (elections conducted with integrity). Thus, this thesis examines the effects of these types of elections on human development in Africa. It further explores a series of potential pathways through which the elections can impact human development in Africa. Finally, the study examines how components of free and fair multiparty elections affect human development. <br>
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description: Using infant mortality rates (IMRs), child mortality rates (CMRs) and life expectancy (LE) as core measures of human development, this study conducts a series of time-series-cross-national (TSCS) statistical tests to address the key hypotheses and expectations (see chapters four to six). Employing panel data spanning 48 countries from 1960 to 2020, the thesis assesses the effect of free and fair multiparty elections and multiparty fraudulent elections on human development respectively. Drawing upon a diverse set of empirical methods including fixed effect (FE) regression, time fixed effects (TE) regression, multivariate regression and mediation analysis of within-country variance decomposition, a robust analysis of the association between free and fair elections and human development is provided.<br>
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description: This thesis found no evidence to show that multiparty fraudulent elections improve human development. However, it was evidenced that free and fair multiparty elections improve IMRs, CMRs and LE at stock measure, suggesting that the human development benefits of electoral contestation appear to be driven primarily by free and fair multiparty elections over time. While free and fair multiparty elections are important, their positive impact on human development is contingent upon policy mechanisms. As such, this thesis delves deeper into the relationship between policies and human development and concludes that policies concerning water and sanitation services serve as conduits that enable free and fair multiparty elections to contribute to the enhancement of human development in Africa. In addition, the capacity of electoral management bodies (EMBs) and updated and unmanipulated voter registration constitute the elements of free and fair elections that help to improve human development. By contrast, the presence of vote-buying and government intimidation were shown in this thesis to have adverse effects by worsening IMRs, CMRs and LE. <br>
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description: This thesis argues that the best way to think about the relationship between elections and human development in Africa is as a time-dependent, historical phenomenon. This is the case for free and fair multiparty elections, but not so for multiparty fraudulent elections. I argue that if an intervention, such as improving the authority of EMBS in conducting credible elections, places a constraint on the ability of politicians to rig their (re)elections, they will need to put in more effort to win the support of voters. Such interventions or reforms, should therefore, encourage government performance because by improving the credibility of elections, voters can, in principle, elect quality leaders who they believe will serve their interests and punish those who did not. <br>