Deliverable 2.3: Energy system cost-optimization of flexibility potentials
Creators: name: Mata, Erika
name: Musbau Adeoye Bello
name: Jacobsson, Anton
name: Kronnäs, Veronika
name: Garcia, Nicolas Pardo
name: Ralf-Roman Schmidt
name: Romanchenko, Dmytro
name: Suna, Demet
name: Wimmeder, Sarah
name: Unluturk, Burcu
Publisher: name: Zenodo
Year: 2022
Subjects: flexibility
energy system
cost-optimization
modelling

description: This Deliverable presents the results of Tasks 2.2 and Task 2.3 of Work Package (WP) 2 of the Flexi-Sync project. The project aims to identify how the untapped flexibility in district heating (DH) and district cooling (DC) systems can benefit the overall energy system by balancing the volatility caused by increased shares of variable Renewable Energy Sources (RES). Flexi-Sync includes partners from four European countries and has six demonstration sites in Germany (Berlin), Spain (Palma de Mallorca), Austria (Maria Laach auf Jauerling in the state of Lower Austria) and Sweden (Borås, Eskilstuna, Mölndal). WP2 aims to estimate the cost-efficient flexibility potential of the DH systems available in the cities where the demo sites are located. For the demonstration sites of Eskilstuna and Lower Austria, the aims are addressed quantitatively. The method includes up-scaling the flexibility potential from demo-scale to city/region scale (Task 2.2) and dynamic energy system optimization modelling to assess cost–efficient flexibility potential of DH systems in the long-term (Task 2.3). For the rest of the demonstration sites, the aims are addressed qualitatively, by discussing the potential implications of the results from the modelled demonstration sites, the results from the other WPs and input from stakeholders. The flexibility types investigated in this WP include combined heat-and-power (CHP) plants, centralized and individual heat pumps (HPs), and thermal energy storages (TES), including TES in the DH network and in buildings (in both Eskilstuna and Lower Austria), and demand side management (DSM) (in Lower Austria, based on results from WP1). For the city of Eskilstuna, the modeling results indicate that for all scenarios and availability of TES, the future heating sector will be dominated by heat pumps (HPs), both centralized (in the DH system) and individual. This implies that the city’s heating sector becomes a net consumer of electricity and can help with the utilization of excess electricity from the power sector. The results also show that the already available and invested in TES solutions are actively used for storing heat between seasons and for decreasing the peak heat generation, i.e., flattening the heat generation curve. This results in lower system cost of heat supply and improved flexibility potential of the heating system. For the region of Lower Austria, modeling results of both scenarios indicate that decarbonization of the heating sector is possible by 2040. In residential sector, building refurbishment will play an important role to reduce energy consumption as well as the expansion of the use of heat pumps (air and geothermal) together with the use DH. In service sector, DH increases its weight as predominant technology. During the transition, wood biomass becomes fundamental and air-source HPs play a relevant role. Finally, the use of wood biomass as well as air-source HP is high in the long-term and the role of CHP plants is predominant. There is an improvement in the use of DH to cover the winter peak. This is due to the better efficiency of future technologies but also to the use of DMS). The model does not invest in TES solutions connected to the DH systems at seasonal level. This can be explained on the one hand by low availability of variable sources (solar thermal) and on the other hand, by the already high utilization of other flexible systems such as CHP and HPs in DH.