title: ÐÐ¾Ð´ÐµÐ»Ñ ÑÐºÐ¾Ð½Ð¾Ð¼Ð¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¾Ð³Ð¾ ÑÐ¾ÑÑÐ¾ÑÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐºÑÐµÐ´Ð¸ÑÐ½Ð¾Ð¹ Ð¾ÑÐ³Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ð·Ð°ÑÐ¸Ð¸
title: Ð²ÑÐ¿ÑÑÐºÐ½Ð°Ñ ÐºÐ²Ð°Ð»Ð¸ÑÐ¸ÐºÐ°ÑÐ¸Ð¾Ð½Ð½Ð°Ñ ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÐ° Ð±Ð°ÐºÐ°Ð»Ð°Ð²ÑÐ°
titleType: Subtitle
title: Model of economic condition credit organization
Creators: name: ÐÑÐ»Ð¸Ð³Ð¸Ð½, Ð¡ÑÐµÐ¿Ð°Ð½
Publisher: name: Ð¡Ð°Ð½ÐºÑ-ÐÐµÑÐµÑÐ±ÑÑÐ³ÑÐºÐ¸Ð¹ Ð¿Ð¾Ð»Ð¸ÑÐµÑÐ½Ð¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¸Ð¹ ÑÐ½Ð¸Ð²ÐµÑÑÐ¸ÑÐµÑ ÐÐµÑÑÐ° ÐÐµÐ»Ð¸ÐºÐ¾Ð³Ð¾
Year: 2020
Subjects: Ð´Ð¸Ð½Ð½Ð°Ð¼Ð¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ°Ñ ÑÐ¸ÑÑÐµÐ¼Ð°
ÑÐ°ÐºÑÐ¾Ñ ÑÐµÐ·Ð¾Ð½Ð½Ð¾ÑÑÐ¸
ÐºÑÐµÐ´Ð¸ÑÐ½Ð°Ñ Ð¾ÑÐ³Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ð·Ð°ÑÐ¸Ñ
Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð· Ð¿ÑÐ¸Ð±ÑÐ»Ð¸
Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð· ÑÐ¾Ð±ÑÑÐ²ÐµÐ½Ð½Ð¾Ð³Ð¾ ÐºÐ°Ð¿Ð¸ÑÐ°Ð»Ð°
dynamic system
seasonality factor
credit organization
profit forecast
forecast of owner's capital

description: Ð¢ÐµÐ¼Ð° Ð²ÑÐ¿ÑÑÐºÐ½Ð¾Ð¹ ÐºÐ²Ð°Ð»Ð¸ÑÐ¸ÐºÐ°ÑÐ¸Ð¾Ð½Ð½Ð¾Ð¹ ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÑ: Â«ÐÐ¾Ð´ÐµÐ»Ñ ÑÐºÐ¾Ð½Ð¾Ð¼Ð¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¾Ð³Ð¾ ÑÐ¾ÑÑÐ¾ÑÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐºÑÐµÐ´Ð¸ÑÐ½Ð¾Ð¹ Ð¾ÑÐ³Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ð·Ð°ÑÐ¸Ð¸Â». ÐÐ°Ð½Ð½Ð°Ñ ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÐ° Ð¿Ð¾ÑÐ²ÑÑÐµÐ½Ð° ÑÐ¸Ð½ÑÐµÐ·Ñ Ð´Ð¸Ð½Ð°Ð¼Ð¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¾Ð¹ Ð¼Ð°ÑÐµÐ¼Ð°ÑÐ¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¾Ð¹ Ð¼Ð¾Ð´ÐµÐ»Ð¸ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð° Ð¿ÑÐ¸Ð±ÑÐ»Ð¸ Ñ ÑÐ¾Ð±ÑÑÐ²ÐµÐ½Ð½Ð¾Ð³Ð¾ ÐºÐ°Ð¿Ð¸ÑÐ°Ð»Ð° ÐºÑÐµÐ´Ð¸ÑÐ½Ð¾Ð¹ Ð¾ÑÐ³Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ð·Ð°ÑÐ¸Ð¸ Ñ ÑÑÐµÑÐ¾Ð¼ ÑÐ°ÐºÑÐ¾ÑÐ° ÑÐµÐ·Ð¾Ð½Ð½Ð¾ÑÑÐ¸. Ð ÑÐ¾Ð´Ðµ ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÑ ÑÐµÑÐ°Ð»Ð¸ÑÑ ÑÐ»ÐµÐ´ÑÑÑÐ¸Ðµ Ð·Ð°Ð´Ð°ÑÐ¸: 1. ÐÐ¿Ð¸ÑÐ°Ð½Ð¸Ðµ ÑÑÑÐµÑÑÐ²ÑÑÑÐ¸Ñ Ð¿Ð¾Ð´ÑÐ¾Ð´Ð¾Ð² Ðº Ð¼Ð¾Ð´ÐµÐ»Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð° Ð¿ÑÐ¸Ð±ÑÐ»Ð¸ Ñ ÑÐ¾Ð±ÑÑÐ²ÐµÐ½Ð½Ð¾Ð³Ð¾ ÐºÐ°Ð¿Ð¸ÑÐ°Ð»Ð° ÐºÑÐµÐ´Ð¸ÑÐ½Ð¾Ð¹ Ð¾ÑÐ³Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ð·Ð°ÑÐ¸Ð¸. 2. ÐÐ¿ÑÐµÐ´ÐµÐ»ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ðµ Ð²Ð»Ð¸ÑÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÑÐ°ÐºÑÐ¾ÑÐ° ÑÐµÐ·Ð¾Ð½Ð½Ð¾ÑÑÐ¸ Ð½Ð° Ð´ÐµÑÑÐµÐ»ÑÐ½Ð¾ÑÑÑ ÐºÑÐµÐ´Ð¸Ñ-Ð½Ð¾Ð¹ Ð¾ÑÐ³Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ð·Ð°ÑÐ¸Ð¸ 3. Ð¡Ð¸Ð½ÑÐµÐ· Ð´Ð¸Ð½Ð°Ð¼Ð¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¾Ð¹ Ð¼Ð°ÑÐµÐ¼Ð°ÑÐ¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¾Ð¹ Ð¼Ð¾Ð´ÐµÐ»Ð¸ Ñ ÑÑÐµÑÐ¾Ð¼ Ð²ÑÑÐ²Ð»ÐµÐ½-Ð½Ð¾Ð¹ Ð·Ð°Ð²Ð¸ÑÐ¸Ð¼Ð¾ÑÑÐ¸ ÑÐµÐ·Ð¾Ð½Ð½Ð¾Ð³Ð¾ ÑÐ¿ÑÐ¾ÑÐ°. 4. Ð Ð°Ð·ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÐºÐ° Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³ÑÐ°Ð¼Ð¼Ð½Ð¾Ð³Ð¾ Ð¾Ð±ÐµÑÐ¿ÐµÑÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ Ð´Ð»Ñ ÑÐ¸ÑÐ»ÐµÐ½Ð½Ð¾Ð³Ð¾ ÑÐµÑÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÑÐ¸Ð½ÑÐµÐ·Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð½Ð¾Ð¹ Ð¼Ð¾Ð´ÐµÐ»Ð¸. 5. ÐÑÐµÐ½ÐºÐ° ÑÐµÐ·ÑÐ»ÑÑÐ°ÑÐ¾Ð² Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð° ÑÐ¾Ð±ÑÑÐ²ÐµÐ½Ð½Ð¾Ð³Ð¾ ÐºÐ°Ð¿Ð¸ÑÐ°Ð»Ð° ÑÐ¸Ð½ÑÐµÐ·Ð¸ÑÐ¾-Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð½Ð¾Ð¹ Ð¼Ð¾Ð´ÐµÐ»Ð¸. ÐÑÐµ Ð²ÑÑÐ¸ÑÐ»ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð¾Ð´Ð¸Ð»Ð¸ÑÑ Ñ Ð¿Ð¾Ð¼Ð¾ÑÑÑ ÑÐ·ÑÐºÐ° Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³ÑÐ°Ð¼Ð¼Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ Py-thon, Ñ Ð¿Ð¾Ð¼Ð¾ÑÑÑ ÐºÐ¾ÑÐ¾ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð¾ Ð±ÑÐ» ÑÐ¼Ð¾Ð´ÐµÐ»Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½ ÐºÐ¾ÑÑÑÐ¸ÑÐ¸ÐµÐ½Ñ ÑÐµÐ·Ð¾Ð½Ð½Ð¾Ð³Ð¾ ÑÐ¿ÑÐ¾ÑÐ° Ð½Ð° Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð´ÑÐºÑÑ ÐºÑÐµÐ´Ð¸ÑÐ½Ð¾Ð¹ Ð¾ÑÐ³Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ð·Ð°ÑÐ¸Ð¸, Ð° ÑÐ°ÐºÐ¶Ðµ Ð¿Ð¾Ð»ÑÑÐµÐ½Ð¾ ÑÐ¸ÑÐ»ÐµÐ½Ð½Ð¾Ðµ ÑÐµÑÐµÐ½Ð¸Ðµ ÑÐ¸Ð½ÑÐµÐ·Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð½Ð¾Ð¹ Ð¼Ð¾Ð´ÐµÐ»Ð¸. Ð ÑÐµÐ·ÑÐ»ÑÑÐ°ÑÐµ Ð±ÑÐ»Ð¾ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð²ÐµÐ´ÐµÐ½Ð¾ ÑÑÐ°Ð²Ð½ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ðµ ÑÐ¾ÑÐ½Ð¾ÑÑÐ¸ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ ÑÑ-ÑÐµÑÑÐ²ÑÑÑÐµÐ¹ Ð¸ ÑÐ¸Ð½ÑÐµÐ·Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð½Ð¾Ð¹ Ð¼Ð¾Ð´ÐµÐ»Ð¸.
description: The theme of the final qualification work: âModel of the economic state of a credit organizationâ. This work is devoted to the synthesis of a dynamic mathematical model of forecasts of income from equity. In the course of work, the following tasks were solved: 1. Description of existing approaches to modeling forecasts. 2. Determination of the influence of seasonality factor on the activities of credit organizations 3. Synthesis of a dynamic mathematical model, taking into account the revealed dependence of seasonal demand. 4. Software development for the numerical solution of the synthesized model. 5. Evaluation of the results of the forecast of equity of the synthesized-new model. All calculations were carried out using the Python programming language, with the help of which he took into account the seasonal demand coefficient for credit organizations. As a result, a comparison was made of the accuracy of forecasting the essential-barrel and synthesized models.