Overconfidence third wave
Creators: name: Lawson, Asher
Publisher: name: OSF Registries
Year: 2022
Subjects: subject: Social and Behavioral Sciences

description: This pre-registration concerns adding a third wave of data collection to an existing two waves of data. The collection of those two waves of data was also pre-registered on OSF. In the first two waves of data collection, we measured a variable called core overconfidence (core OC) at time 1 and time 1. This variable captured the degree of overconfidence displayed across a wide range of domains and elicitations. In the third wave of data collection, we will measure additional variables and make hypotheses both about their relation to eachother, and to these two measures of core OC from extant data. Recruitment N = 447 participants from the platform MTurk completed the first two waves of data collection. All 447 of these participants will be invited back to complete the third wave. The sample size will be as many as return. Participants will be offered $2.50 to complete a 12 minute survey. Design In order to enter the survey, participants must pass a comprehension check item. If they fail this comprehension check, they will be excluded prior to random assignment and no data will be collected. Upon entering the survey, participants will be randomly assigned to an order condition. This will take one of two values (“OCT_first”, “OCT_last”). In the condition OCT_first, participants will first answer the three items of the OCT, before responding to a series of individual difference measures. In condition OCT_last, participants will first answer a series of individual difference measures before later answering the items from the OCT. In both cases, the last thing participants will do is provide demographic information. All participants will provide responses to eight individual difference measures. Six of these pertain to cognitive styles; intellectual humility scale (Leary et al., 2017), need for closure decisiveness facet (Kruglanski et al., 1993), need for closure closed mindedness facet (Kruglanski et al., 1993), the Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT; Frederick, 2005), the Berlin Numeracy Test (BNT; Cokely et al., 2012), and a measure of actively open-minded thinking (Baron, 2019). Two of these pertain to self-view / personality variables; the dominance facet of extraversion (Wiggins et al., 1988), and a dark triad measure that contains narcissism, psychopathy, and Machiavellianism (Jones &amp; Paulhus, 2014). The demographic information we will collect is participants’ age, gender, education, race, and ethnicity. Measures The key measures / variables in the study are: - Core OC time 1 - Core OC time 2 - OCT time 3 (computed by averaging the three items oci1-oci3) - Scale variables time 3 (10 different measures total as Dark Triad has three facets; all aggregated according to their specified coding schemes) Hypotheses 1) OCT at time 3 will predict core OC at time 1 2) OCT at time 3 will predict core OC at time 2 3) Core OC (at time 1, 2) will be related with scales (at time 3) that capture both cognitive style and self-view 4) OCT at time 3 will be related with scales at time 3 that capture both cognitive style and self-view 5) OCT at time 3 will be related with scales at time 3 whether it is asked before or after them Analyses These analyses are merely a series of correlations. Hypotheses 1-4 can be tested with a large correlation table among the variables; core OC time 1, core OC time 2, OCT at time 3, scales at time 3. The fifth hypothesis can be investigated by inspecting the correlations between OCT and the scales separately for each order condition. If there appears to be a material difference, we can test the regression: scale ~ OCT*order. A significant interaction term would indicate that the correlation did vary by order. Interpretations If OCT is associated with core OC in time 1 and 2 we take this to convey that it measures the same, stable construct. We trialed OCT-type items in the earlier waves of data collection, but given these were administered at the end of experimental sessions that asked about overconfidence, it was possible that their validity was contaminated by the rest of the experiment. In this test, we ask no other items regarding overconfidence, and so if OCT is still related with the earlier measures of core OC, we take this as strong evidence of its validity as a measure. The reason why we counterbalance the order of presentation of OCT and the individual difference (ID) measures follows a similar rationale about contamination. Suppose answering a series of IDs might create a mindset that causes OCT to move in line with the IDs. Then administering OCT prior to the IDs might quash any relationship between the two. It is harder to argue that answering the three short items from the OCT will create a mindset that leads the IDs to follow (particularly when these are all well-established, stable, individual difference variables). One solution to this would be just to ask OCT first to everyone, but counterbalancing allows us to identify if this type of contamination is a concern at all.