title: ÐÐ±Ð¾ÑÐ½Ð¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ðµ Ð°ÐºÑÑÐ°Ð»ÑÐ½Ð¾Ð¹ Ð¼Ð¾Ð´ÐµÐ»Ð¸ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð° Ð½ÐµÑÑÐ°ÑÑÐ½ÑÑ ÑÐ»ÑÑÐ°ÐµÐ² Ð½Ð° Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð¸Ð·Ð²Ð¾Ð´ÑÑÐ²Ðµ, ÑÐ¾ÑÑÐ°Ð²Ð»ÐµÐ½Ð½Ð¾Ð¹ Ð½Ð° Ð¾ÑÐ½Ð¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ð¸ ÑÑÐ°ÑÐ¸ÑÑÐ¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¸Ñ Ð´Ð°Ð½Ð½ÑÑ ÐÐ¾ÑÑÐ´Ð°ÑÑÑÐ²ÐµÐ½Ð½Ð¾Ð¹ Ð¸Ð½ÑÐ¿ÐµÐºÑÐ¸Ð¸ ÑÑÑÐ´Ð°
title: Ð²ÑÐ¿ÑÑÐºÐ½Ð°Ñ ÐºÐ²Ð°Ð»Ð¸ÑÐ¸ÐºÐ°ÑÐ¸Ð¾Ð½Ð½Ð°Ñ ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÐ° Ð±Ð°ÐºÐ°Ð»Ð°Ð²ÑÐ°
titleType: Subtitle
title: Justification of the current forecast model accidents at work compiled on the basis of statistical data of the State labour Inspectorate
Creators: name: ÐÐ½Ð°Ð½ÐµÐ½ÐºÐ¾, ÐÐ°ÑÐ¸Ð½Ð°
Publisher: name: Ð¡Ð°Ð½ÐºÑ-ÐÐµÑÐµÑÐ±ÑÑÐ³ÑÐºÐ¸Ð¹ Ð¿Ð¾Ð»Ð¸ÑÐµÑÐ½Ð¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¸Ð¹ ÑÐ½Ð¸Ð²ÐµÑÑÐ¸ÑÐµÑ ÐÐµÑÑÐ° ÐÐµÐ»Ð¸ÐºÐ¾Ð³Ð¾
Year: 2020
Subjects: Ð½ÐµÑÑÐ°ÑÑÐ½ÑÐ¹ ÑÐ»ÑÑÐ°Ð¹
Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð¸Ð·Ð²Ð¾Ð´ÑÑÐ²ÐµÐ½Ð½ÑÐ¹ ÑÑÐ°Ð²Ð¼Ð°ÑÐ¸Ð·Ð¼
Ð¼Ð°ÑÐµÐ¼Ð°ÑÐ¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¾Ðµ Ð¼Ð¾Ð´ÐµÐ»Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ðµ
Ð°Ð½Ð°Ð»Ð¸Ð·
Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·
ÑÐºÑÑÑÐ°Ð¿Ð¾Ð»ÑÑÐ¸Ñ
Ð¾Ñ ÑÐ°Ð½Ð° ÑÑÑÐ´Ð°
accident
industrial injuries
mathematical modeling
analysis
forecasting
extrapolation
labor protection

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description: The topic of the final qualification work: "justification of the current model of the forecast of accidents at work, compiled on the basis of statistical data of the State labor Inspectorate". This work is devoted to improving the accident forecast model, which is used to forecast the level of injuries in the city of Saint Petersburg. The aim of this work is to improve the model for predicting industrial accidents based on the correlations found in the statistics of the State labor Inspectorate for the city of Saint Peters-burg for the period from 2014 to 2018, and to apply it to the existing data to cre-ate relevant recommendations. Tasks that were solved in the course of the study: 1. Review and analysis of regulatory documents in the field of employee health protection. 2. Evaluation of statistics on industrial accidents. 3. Improvement of one of the methods for predicting accidents. 4. Development of recommendations on the use of the forecast method and prevention of accidents. The object of this research is industrial accidents. The subject of the study is the forecast of industrial accidents using an im-proved model. The research methods used in this work are the analysis and comparison of initial data on the number of accidents in the city of Saint Petersburg, and the method of mathematical modeling and analysis of the results obtained is used to predict the level of injuries. The work was carried out with publicly available data of the State labor In-spectorate in the city of Saint Petersburg on the number of accidents that oc-curred at enterprises, based on which the state of the level of injuries in the city was rated as one of the most unsatisfactory in Russia. The accident prediction model was improved using interpolation algorithms embedded in the MathCad software applied to the available data. The results were presented as time series with linear and polynomial trend lines drawn. The analysis of the results showed a decrease in the number of accidents at enterprises in the city of Saint Peters-burg, including in such industries as construction, transport and communications, trade and medicine. However, there were also negative results indicating a deteri-oration in the state of injuries in the manufacturing industry. The causes of acci-dents that showed an unsatisfactory prognosis were determined, namely falling from a height and illegal actions of other persons. In conclusion, it was deter-mined that the implementation of the forecast methodology in the first macro- processes of occupational health management systems operating at enterprises is the most effective and recommendations for preventing accidents in standard or-ganizations are proposed.