Additional file 1 of Could widespread use of antiviral treatment curb the COVID-19 pandemic? A modeling study
Creators: name: Matrajt, Laura
name: Brown, Elizabeth R.
name: Cohen, Myron S.
name: Dimitrov, Dobromir
name: Janes, Holly
Publisher: name: figshare
Year: 2022
Subjects: subject: Medicine
subject: Biotechnology
subject: 69999 Biological Sciences not elsewhere classified
subject: FOS: Biological sciences
subject: Cancer
subject: 110309 Infectious Diseases
subject: FOS: Health sciences
subject: 60506 Virology
subject: Computational Biology

description: Additional file 1: Table S1. Parameters used in the model. Table S2. Vaccine effectiveness values used in the model during the Delta and the Omicron waves. For the Delta wave, vaccine effectiveness assumes full coverage. For the Omicron wave, we assumed that boosted vaccinated individuals will get the same protection as that given by full coverage during the Delta wave. Table S3. Age-specific parameters for disease progression. Table S4. Demographic distribution of the adult population. Table S5. Vaccine distribution in Belgium (values taken from [20, 21]). As of January 3rd, certain groups (e.g. children who just got vaccinated) in Belgium were were considered “highly protected” and were given the vaccine effectiveness of the boosted vaccinated individuals in the model. Table S6. Vaccine distribution in US (values taken from [21, 22]). As of January 3rd, children under 18 years old were considered “highly protected” and were given the vaccine effectiveness of the boosted vaccinated individuals in the model. Table S7. Vaccine distribution in Mexico (values taken from [21, 23]). As of January 3rd, we found no data on boosted individuals in Mexico, so we did not considered boosted individuals in Mexico [21]. Figure S1. Cumulative deaths over next 6 months in A) Kenya, B) Mexico, C) United States and D) Belgium. Here, we assumed an epidemic wave with parameters similar to those of the Omicron epidemic wave (transmissibility, vaccine effectiveness, and vaccination coverage). For each country, the colors represent four possible values of AVT (25, 50, 75 or 100% reduction in viral transmission in treated symptomatic individuals) and a daily treatment initiation rate (DTIR) of 2-100% of adult symptomatic individuals within the first 5 days of symptoms. Gray bars represent baseline cumulative deaths in absence of antiviral treatment. Figure S2. Cumulative infections over next 6 months for A) Kenya, B) Mexico, C) United States and D) Belgium. Here, we assumed an epidemic wave with parameters similar to those of the Omicron epidemic wave (transmissibility, vaccine effectiveness, and vaccination coverage). For each country, the colors represent four possible values of AVT (25, 50, 75 or 100% reduction in viral transmission in treated symptomatic individuals) and a daily treatment initiation rate (DTIR) of 2-100% of adult symptomatic individuals within the first 5 days of symptoms. Gray bars represent baseline cumulative infections in absence of antiviral treatment. Figure S3. Percentage of deaths averted (compared to a baseline of no antiviral treatment) for A) Kenya, B) Mexico, C) United States and D) Belgium. Here, we assumed an epidemic wave with parameters similar to those of the Delta epidemic wave (transmissibility, vaccine effectiveness, and vaccination coverage). For each country, the colors represent four possible values of AVT (25, 50, 75 or 100% reduction in viral transmission in treated symptomatic individuals) and a daily treatment initiation rate (DTIR) of 2-100% of adult symptomatic individuals within the first 5 days of symptoms. Figure S4. Percentage of infections averted (compared to a baseline of no antiviral treatment) for A) Kenya, B) Mexico, C) United States and D) Belgium. Here, we assumed an epidemic wave with parameters similar to those of the Delta epidemic wave (transmissibility, vaccine effectiveness, and vaccination coverage). For each country, the colors represent four possible values of AVT (25, 50, 75 or 100% reduction in viral transmission in treated symptomatic individuals) and a daily treatment initiation rate (DTIR) of 2-100% of adult symptomatic individuals within the first 5 days of symptoms. Figure S5. Percentage of deaths averted for A) Kenya, B) Mexico, C) United States and D) Belgium assuming 20 (left), 40 (middle) or 60% (right) of the population has been previously infected and is currently immune. For each country, the colors represent four possible values of AVT (25, 50, 75 or 100% reduction in viral transmission in treated symptomatic individuals) and a daily treatment initiation rate (DTIR) of 2-100% of adult symptomatic individuals within the first 5 days of symptoms. Figure S6. Daily new infections assuming no antiviral treatment (Baseline) or assuming a daily treatment initiation rate of of 10-100% of eligible symptomatic individuals in A) Kenya, B) Mexico, C) United States and D) Belgium assuming 20% of the population has been previously infected and is now recovered. For each location, each column represents a different value of AVT (25, 50, 75 or 100% reduction in viral transmission in treated symptomatic individuals). Figure S7. Daily new infections assuming no antiviral treatment (Baseline) or assuming a daily treatment initiation rate of of 10-100% of eligible symptomatic individuals in A) Kenya, B) Mexico, C) United States and D) Belgium assuming 60% of the population has been previously infected and is now recovered. For each location, each column represents a different value of AVT 25, 50, 75 or 100% reduction in viral transmission in treated symptomatic individuals). Figure S8. Percentage of deaths averted (compared to a baseline of no antiviral treatment) for A) Kenya, B) Mexico, C) United States and D) Belgium assuming antiviral treatment would reduce hospitalizations by 30%. Here, we assumed an epidemic wave with parameters similar to those of the Omicron epidemic wave (transmissibility, vaccine effectiveness, and vaccination coverage). For each country, the colors represent four possible values of AVT (25, 50, 75 or 100% reduction in viral transmission in treated symptomatic individuals) and a daily treatment initiation rate (DTIR) of 2-100% of adult symptomatic individuals within the first 5 days of symptoms. Figure S9. Percentage of deaths averted (compared to a baseline of no antiviral treatment) for A) Kenya, B) Mexico, C) United States and D) Belgium assuming asymptomatic infections are 50% less infectious. Here, we assumed an epidemic wave with parameters similar to those of the Omicron epidemic wave (transmissibility, vaccine effectiveness, and vaccination coverage). For each country, the colors represent four possible values of AVT (25, 50, 75 or 100% reduction in viral transmission in treated symptomatic individuals) and a daily treatment initiation rate (DTIR) of 2-100% of adult symptomatic individuals within the first 5 days of symptoms. Figure S10. Percentage of infections averted (compared to a baseline of no antiviral treatment) for A) Kenya, B) Mexico, C) United States and D) Belgium assuming asymptomatic infections are 50% less infectious. Here, we assumed an epidemic wave with parameters similar to those of the Omicron epidemic wave (transmissibility, vaccine effectiveness, and vaccination coverage). For each country, the colors represent four possible values of AVT (25, 50, 75 or 100% reduction in viral transmission in treated symptomatic individuals) and a daily treatment initiation rate (DTIR) of 2-100% of adult symptomatic individuals within the first 5 days of symptoms.