D3.1 Analysis of bottom-up business models, Cost Benefit Analysis (extended with environmental impact) and crowdfunding  strategy
Creators: name: Zerilli, Paola Z
name: Djeddi, Ahmed
Publisher: name: Zenodo
Year: 2025

description: The SUPERSHINE project is a comprehensive initiative designed to address the urgent need forenergy efficiency renovations across Europe. Focused on Italy, Latvia, and Denmark, this projectemploys financial and statistical analyses within the framework of Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs)and crowdfunding to facilitate energy efficiency projects and foster sustainable development. Thisdocument covers the following:

Technical analysis: This section focuses on the technical analysis framework developed to assessenergy efficiency renovation projects in Italy, Latvia, and Denmark. The document outlines themethodology employed, starting with the energy savings modelling process. This involves datacollection, baseline assessment, intervention simulation, and result analysis to predict energyconsumption reductions and CO2 emissions reductions post-renovation.Financial and bottom-up business model: The bottom-up business model developed within theSUPERSHINE project offers a comprehensive approach to analysing and financing energy efficiencyrenovation projects. It comprises several methodical steps. First, the model utilises the SUPER-ienergy savings model to predict energy consumption reductions post-renovation by assessing data,baseline energy profiles, and intervention impacts. Next, a stochastic volatility modelling simulatesfuture financial variables to understand economic conditions affecting project feasibility. The modelthen calculates the social discount rate, determining the true cost of capital by considering privateinvestment returns and savings/consumption rates. Following this, financial and socio-economicimpact analysis evaluates ROI, NCF, NPV, and risk-adjusted extra return to gauge project profitabilityand viability. The approach extends to block-level and district-level replication, assessing collectiveimpacts of interventions at larger scales, providing comprehensive outlooks for blocks and districts.Additionally, benchmark comparison ensures findings align with established indices, ensuringfinancial soundness. The SUPERSHINE bottom up business model guides stakeholders in selectingthe most financially viable interventions based on risk-adjusted returns, ROI, and the SDR, aiming tofacilitate informed decision-making and promote sustainable energy practices.The financial analysis methodology evaluates the feasibility and economic viability of energyefficiency renovation projects within Public-Private Partnership (PPP) funding schemes andcrowdfunding. This methodology encompasses a comprehensive analysis of key economicindicators and financial variables, including energy market bid price, inflation rate, interest rate ondebt, property value growth rate, rent growth rate, default rate on rent, and socio-economicvariables. Through advanced stochastic volatility modelling and the calculation of the SocialDiscount Rate (SDR), the methodology provides a robust framework for assessing financial return, risk-adjusted extra returns, and conditional value at risk (CVaR). By integrating detailed financialanalysis with socio-economic considerations, the SUPERSHINE project aims to facilitate informeddecision-making and optimise funding solutions for energy efficiency projects in Italy, Latvia, andDenmark.Environmental impact analysis: This section focuses on the environmental impact assessment ofdistrict retrofit interventions in Italy, Latvia, and Denmark. These interventions aim to improveenergy performance, reduce carbon emissions, and promote sustainable practices. Themethodology involves evaluating the energy savings potential, assessing related costs, andemphasising waste management strategies, such as utilising local agricultural waste and promotingrecycling. Despite substantial upfront costs, the long-term benefits, coupled with potential carboncredits and voluntary carbon market support, make these interventions economically viable andenvironmentally sustainable. Through rigorous environmental assessment and mitigationstrategies, SUPERSHINE seeks to drive positive environmental outcomes and contribute to thetransition towards a more sustainable future.Social impact analysis: Energy efficiency and renewable measures can yield numerous substantialsocial ramifications beyond their immediate effects on energy efficiency and cost. Frequently, theseimplications are disregarded due to the challenge of quantifying their value. The section relatedwith social impact emphasises this aspect of the measures.