Exploring the modeling of spatiotemporal variations in ambient air pollution within the land use regression framework: Estimation of PM<sub>10</sub> concentrations on a daily basis
Creators: name: Md. Saniul Alam
name: McNabola, Aonghus
Publisher: name: Taylor & Francis
Year: 2015
Subjects: subject: Mathematics
subject: FOS: Mathematics
subject: FOS: Mathematics
subject: Information and Computing Sciences
subject: Biological Sciences
subject: Ecology
subject: FOS: Biological sciences
subject: FOS: Biological sciences
subject: Chemistry
subject: Earth and Environmental Sciences
subject: Biotechnology
subject: Engineering

description: Estimation of daily average exposure to PM<sub>10</sub> (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter &lt;10 μm) using the available fixed-site monitoring stations (FSMs) in a city poses a great challenge. This is because typically FSMs are limited in number when considering the spatial representativeness of their measurements and also because statistical models of citywide exposure have yet to be explored in this context. This paper deals with the later aspect of this challenge and extends the widely used land use regression (LUR) approach to deal with temporal changes in air pollution and the influence of transboundary air pollution on short-term variations in PM<sub>10</sub>. Using the concept of multiple linear regression (MLR) modeling, the average daily concentrations of PM<sub>10</sub> in two European cities, Vienna and Dublin, were modeled. Models were initially developed using the standard MLR approach in Vienna using the most recently available data. Efforts were subsequently made to (i) assess the stability of model predictions over time; (ii) explores the applicability of nonparametric regression (NPR) and artificial neural networks (ANNs) to deal with the nonlinearity of input variables. The predictive performance of the MLR models of the both cities was demonstrated to be stable over time and to produce similar results. However, NPR and ANN were found to have more improvement in the predictive performance in both cities. Using ANN produced the highest result, with daily PM<sub>10</sub> exposure predicted at <i>R</i><sup>2</sup> = 66% for Vienna and 51% for Dublin. In addition, two new predictor variables were also assessed for the Dublin model. The variables representing transboundary air pollution and peak traffic count were found to account for 6.5% and 12.7% of the variation in average daily PM<sub>10</sub> concentration. The variable representing transboundary air pollution that was derived from air mass history (from back-trajectory analysis) and population density has demonstrated a positive impact on model performance.Implications: <i>The implications of this research would suggest that it is possible to produce a model of ambient air quality on a citywide scale using the readily available data. Most European cities typically have a limited FSM network with average daily concentrations of air pollutants as well as available meteorological, traffic, and land-use data. This research highlights that using these data in combination with advanced statistical techniques such as NPR or ANNs will produce reasonably accurate predictions of ambient air quality across a city, including temporal variations. Therefore, this approach reduces the need for additional measurement data to supplement existing historical records and enables a lower-cost method of air pollution model development for practitioners and policy makers.</i>