Evaluation of FluSight influenza forecasting in the 2021–22 and 2022–23 seasons with a new target laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations
Creators: name: Hlavacek, William S.
name: Truelove, Shaun
name: Ye, Wenxuan
name: Webber, Alexander E.
name: Basu, Avranil
name: Ben-Nun, Michal
name: Mu, Kunpeng
name: Sato, Koji
name: Chinazzi, Matteo
name: Vespignani, Alessandro
name: Loo, Sara L.
name: Litvinova, Maria
name: Ray, Evan L.
name: Muralidhar, Nikhil
name: Rodríguez, Alexander
name: Lessler, Justin
name: Srivastava, Ajitesh
name: Borchering, Rebecca K.
name: Meyer, Austin G.
name: Carcelen, Erica
name: Raman, Rishi
name: Kamarthi, Harshavardhan
name: Venkatramanan, Srinivasan
name: Perofsky, Amanda C.
name: Cramer, Estee Y.
name: Zorn, Martha W.
name: Yaari, Rami
name: Jessa, Shakeel
name: Suchoski, Brad T.
name: Cojocaru, Monica G.
name: Lemaitre, Joseph C.
name: Niemi, Jarad
name: Chen, Ye
name: Ramakrishnan, Naren
name: Butler, Patrick
name: Meyers, Lauren A.
name: Pei, Sen
name: Wang, Yijin
name: Posner, Richard G.
name: Stark, Ariane
name: Mallela, Abhishek
name: Lu, Fred
name: Nagraj, V. P.
name: Hulme-Lowe, Chis
name: Sun, Monica
name: Kaur, Gursharn
name: Shandross, Li
name: Lamm, Shelby M.
name: Shemetov, Dmitry
name: Brooks, Logan C.
name: Farabow, Andrew
name: Omar, Shalina
name: Kandula, Sasikiran
name: Agarwal, Pulak
name: Rosenfeld, Roni
name: Mathis, Sarabeth M.
name: Ajelli, Marco
name: Lin, Yen Ting
name: Suez, Ehsan
name: Jung, Sung-mok
name: Murray, Erin L.
name: Drake, John M.
name: Riley, Pete
name: Xiong, Xinyue
name: Reed, Carrie
name: White, Lauren A.
name: Baccam, Prasith
name: McAndrew, Thomas
name: Smith, Claire
name: Davis, Jessica T.
name: Pastore y Piontti, Ana
name: Santillana, Mauricio
name: McKee, Clifton D.
name: Hill, Alison L.
name: Kummer, Allisandra G.
name: Stage, Steve A.
name: Zhao, Zhiyuan
name: Prakash, B. Aditya
name: Viboud, Cécile
name: Aawar, Majd Al
name: Shaman, Jeffrey
name: Marathe, Madhav
name: Thommes, Edward W.
name: Gurung, Heidi L.
name: Adiga, Aniruddha
name: Gururajan, Gautham
name: Wadsworth, Spencer
name: Gibson, Graham C.
name: Turner, Stephen D.
name: Yamana, Teresa K.
name: Lewis, Bryan L.
name: Lee, Jaechoul
name: McDonald, Daniel J.
name: Hu, Addison J.
name: Wattanachit, Nutcha
name: Gerding, Aaron
name: Clemente, Leonardo
name: Turtle, James
name: Balusu, Srikar
name: Bosse, Nikos
name: León, Tomás M.
name: Hurt, Benjamin
name: Williams, Desiree
name: Ventura, Paulo C.
name: Reich, Nicholas G.
name: Meiyappan, Akilan
name: Tibshirani, Ryan J.
name: Green, Alden
name: Fox, Spencer J.
name: Biggerstaff, Matthew
Publisher: name: Springer Nature
Year: 2024

description: Accurate forecasts can enable more effective public health responses during seasonal influenza epidemics. For the 2021–22 and 2022–23 influenza seasons, 26 forecasting teams provided national and jurisdiction-specific probabilistic predictions of weekly confirmed influenza hospital admissions for one-to-four weeks ahead. Forecast skill is evaluated using the Weighted Interval Score (WIS), relative WIS, and coverage. Six out of 23 models outperform the baseline model across forecast weeks and locations in 2021–22 and 12 out of 18 models in 2022–23. Averaging across all forecast targets, the FluSight ensemble is the 2nd most accurate model measured by WIS in 2021–22 and the 5th most accurate in the 2022–23 season. Forecast skill and 95% coverage for the FluSight ensemble and most component models degrade over longer forecast horizons. In this work we demonstrate that while the FluSight ensemble was a robust predictor, even ensembles face challenges during periods of rapid change.