title: ÐÐ¾ÑÑÑÐ¾ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ðµ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð½Ð¾Ð¹ Ð¼Ð¾Ð´ÐµÐ»Ð¸ ÑÑÑÑÐºÑÑÑÑ Ð¸ Ð¾Ð±ÑÑÐ¼Ð¾Ð² ÑÐµÐ¿Ð»Ð¾Ð²Ð¾Ð³Ð¾ Ð¿Ð¾ÑÑÐµÐ±Ð»ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ Ð°Ð±Ð¾Ð½ÐµÐ½ÑÐ¾Ð² ÐÐÐ Â«Ð¢ÐÐ-1Â» Ð² Ð¡Ð°Ð½ÐºÑ-ÐÐµÑÐµÑÐ±ÑÑÐ³Ðµ Ð½Ð° Ð¾ÑÐ½Ð¾Ð²Ðµ Ð¸Ñ ÑÐµÑÑÐ¾ÑÐ¿ÐµÐºÑÐ¸Ð²Ð½Ð¾Ð³Ð¾ Ð°Ð½Ð°Ð»Ð¸Ð·Ð°
title: Ð²ÑÐ¿ÑÑÐºÐ½Ð°Ñ ÐºÐ²Ð°Ð»Ð¸ÑÐ¸ÐºÐ°ÑÐ¸Ð¾Ð½Ð½Ð°Ñ ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÐ° Ð±Ð°ÐºÐ°Ð»Ð°Ð²ÑÐ°
titleType: Subtitle
title: Building a forecast model for the structure and volume of the heat energy consumption of PJSC Â«TGC - 1Â» consumers in St. Petersburg on the basis of their retrospective analysis
Creators: name: ÐÐ²Ð¾Ð½ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°, ÐÑÐ¸Ð½Ð°
Publisher: name: Ð¡Ð°Ð½ÐºÑ-ÐÐµÑÐµÑÐ±ÑÑÐ³ÑÐºÐ¸Ð¹ Ð¿Ð¾Ð»Ð¸ÑÐµÑÐ½Ð¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¸Ð¹ ÑÐ½Ð¸Ð²ÐµÑÑÐ¸ÑÐµÑ ÐÐµÑÑÐ° ÐÐµÐ»Ð¸ÐºÐ¾Ð³Ð¾
Year: 2023
Subjects: Ð¿Ð¾ÑÑÑÐ¾ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ðµ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð½Ð¾Ð¹ Ð¼Ð¾Ð´ÐµÐ»Ð¸
ÑÐµÐ¿Ð»Ð¾Ð²Ð¾Ðµ Ð¿Ð¾ÑÑÐµÐ±Ð»ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ðµ
ÑÑÑÑÐºÑÑÑÐ° ÑÐµÐ¿Ð»Ð¾Ð²Ð¾Ð³Ð¾ Ð¿Ð¾ÑÑÐµÐ±Ð»ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ
ÑÐ½ÐµÑÐ³ÐµÑÐ¸ÐºÐ°
ÑÐºÐ¾Ð½Ð¾Ð¼Ð¸ÐºÐ° ÑÐ½ÐµÑÐ³ÐµÑÐ¸ÐºÐ¸
forecast model building
heat consumption
heat consumption structure
energy
energy economy

description: Ð¦ÐµÐ»Ñ: Ð¿Ð¾ÑÑÑÐ¾ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ðµ Ð¼Ð¾Ð´ÐµÐ»Ð¸ Ð¾Ð±ÑÑÐ¼Ð¾Ð² Ð¸ ÑÑÑÑÐºÑÑÑÑ Ð¿Ð¾ÑÑÐµÐ±Ð»ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÑÐµÐ¿Ð»Ð° Ð°Ð±Ð¾Ð½ÐµÐ½ÑÐ¾Ð² ÐÐÐ Â«Ð¢ÐÐ-1Â» Ð² Ð¡Ð°Ð½ÐºÑ-ÐÐµÑÐµÑÐ±ÑÑÐ³Ðµ. ÐÐ»Ñ Ð´Ð¾ÑÑÐ¸Ð¶ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÑÐµÐ»Ð¸ Ð² ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÐµ ÑÐµÑÐµÐ½Ñ ÑÐ»ÐµÐ´ÑÑÑÐ¸Ðµ Ð·Ð°Ð´Ð°ÑÐ¸: - Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð²ÐµÐ´ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ðµ Ð¿ÑÐµÐ´Ð²Ð°ÑÐ¸ÑÐµÐ»ÑÐ½Ð¾Ð³Ð¾ Ð°Ð½Ð°Ð»Ð¸Ð·Ð° Ð´Ð°Ð½Ð½ÑÑ Ð¿Ð¾ ÑÑÑÑÐºÑÑÑÐµ Ð¸ Ð¾Ð±ÑÐµÐ¼Ð°Ð¼ ÑÐµÐ¿Ð»Ð¾Ð²Ð¾Ð³Ð¾ Ð¿Ð¾ÑÑÐµÐ±Ð»ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ; - Ð¸Ð·ÑÑÐµÐ½Ð¸Ðµ ÑÑÑÑÐºÑÑÑÑ Ð¿Ð¾ÑÑÐµÐ±Ð»ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÑÐµÐ¿Ð»Ð° Ð°Ð±Ð¾Ð½ÐµÐ½ÑÐ¾Ð² ÐÐÐ Â«Ð¢ÐÐ-1Â» Ð² Ð¡Ð°Ð½ÐºÑ-ÐÐµÑÐµÑÐ±ÑÑÐ³Ðµ; - Ð¾Ð¿ÑÐµÐ´ÐµÐ»ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ðµ ÑÐ°ÐºÑÐ¾ÑÐ¾Ð², Ð²Ð»Ð¸ÑÑÑÐ¸Ñ Ð½Ð° Ð¿Ð¾ÑÑÐµÐ±Ð»ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ðµ ÑÐµÐ¿Ð»Ð°; - Ð¿Ð¾ÑÑÑÐ¾ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ðµ Ð¼Ð¾Ð´ÐµÐ»Ð¸ ÑÑÑÑÐºÑÑÑÑ Ð¸ Ð¾Ð±ÑÑÐ¼Ð¾Ð² ÑÐµÐ¿Ð»Ð¾Ð²Ð¾Ð³Ð¾ Ð¿Ð¾ÑÑÐµÐ±Ð»ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ Ð°Ð±Ð¾Ð½ÐµÐ½ÑÐ¾Ð² ÐÐÐ Â«Ð¢ÐÐ-1Â» Ð² Ð¡Ð°Ð½ÐºÑ-ÐÐµÑÐµÑÐ±ÑÑÐ³Ðµ; - Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð²ÐµÑÐºÐ° ÐºÐ°ÑÐµÑÑÐ²Ð° Ð¼Ð¾Ð´ÐµÐ»Ð¸. ÐÐºÑÑÐ°Ð»ÑÐ½Ð¾ÑÑÑ ÑÐµÐ¼Ñ Ð¾Ð±ÑÑÐ»Ð¾Ð²Ð»ÐµÐ½Ð° Ð½ÐµÑÐ¾Ð²ÐµÑÑÐµÐ½ÑÑÐ²Ð¾Ð¼ Ð¸Ð½ÑÑÑÑÐ¼ÐµÐ½ÑÐ¾Ð² Ð² Ð¾Ð±Ð»Ð°ÑÑÐ¸ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð½Ð¾Ð·Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ Ð¿Ð¾ÑÑÐµÐ±Ð»ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÑÐµÐ¿Ð»Ð°. ÐÐ¾Ð´ÐµÐ»Ð¸ Ð¿Ð¾Ð·Ð²Ð¾Ð»ÑÑ Ð¿Ð¾Ð´Ð´ÐµÑÐ¶Ð¸Ð²Ð°ÑÑ Ð²ÑÑÐ¾ÐºÐ¾Ðµ ÐºÐ°ÑÐµÑÑÐ²Ð¾ Ð¾Ð±ÑÐ»ÑÐ¶Ð¸Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ Ð°Ð±Ð¾Ð½ÐµÐ½ÑÐ¾Ð² ÐÐÐ Â«Ð¢ÐÐ-1Â». ÐÑÐµÐ´Ð¼ÐµÑÐ¾Ð¼ Ð¸ÑÑÐ»ÐµÐ´Ð¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ ÑÐ²Ð»ÑÐµÑÑÑ Ð¿ÑÐ¾ÑÐµÑÑ Ð¼Ð¾Ð´ÐµÐ»Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ ÑÑÑÑÐºÑÑÑÑ Ð¸ Ð¾Ð±ÑÑÐ¼Ð° ÑÐµÐ¿Ð»Ð¾Ð²Ð¾Ð³Ð¾ Ð¿Ð¾ÑÑÐµÐ±Ð»ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ Ð°Ð±Ð¾Ð½ÐµÐ½ÑÐ¾Ð² ÐÐÐ Â«Ð¢ÐÐ-1Â» Ð² Ð³Ð¾ÑÐ¾Ð´Ðµ Ð¡Ð°Ð½ÐºÑ-ÐÐµÑÐµÑÐ±ÑÑÐ³. ÐÑÑÐ¾ÑÐ½Ð¸ÐºÐ°Ð¼Ð¸ Ð¸Ð½ÑÐ¾ÑÐ¼Ð°ÑÐ¸Ð¸ Ð²ÑÑÑÑÐ¿Ð¸Ð»Ð¸ Ð´Ð°Ð½Ð½ÑÐµ Ð¾ÑÐµÑÐµÑÑÐ²ÐµÐ½Ð½Ð¾Ð¹ Ð½Ð°ÑÑÐ½Ð¾-Ð¸ÑÑÐ»ÐµÐ´Ð¾Ð²Ð°ÑÐµÐ»ÑÑÐºÐ¾Ð¹ Ð»Ð¸ÑÐµÑÐ°ÑÑÑÑ, Ð¾ÑÐ¸ÑÐ¸Ð°Ð»ÑÐ½ÑÑ ÐÐ½ÑÐµÑÐ½ÐµÑ-ÑÐµÑÑÑÑÐ¾Ð², Ð¿ÑÐ°Ð²Ð¾Ð²ÑÑ Ð´Ð¾ÐºÑÐ¼ÐµÐ½ÑÐ¾Ð² Ð¸ Ð°Ð½Ð°Ð»Ð¸ÑÐ¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¸Ñ Ð°Ð³ÐµÐ½ÑÑÑÐ². ÐÑÐ¿ÑÑÐºÐ½Ð°Ñ ÑÐ°Ð±Ð¾ÑÐ° Ð½Ð°Ð¿Ð¸ÑÐ°Ð½Ð° Ñ Ð¿Ð¾Ð¼Ð¾ÑÑÑ Ð¿Ð°ÐºÐµÑÐ° MS Office (Excel), Ð½Ð° Ð¾ÑÐ½Ð¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ð¸ ÐºÐ¾ÑÐ¾ÑÐ¾Ð³Ð¾ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð¸Ð·Ð²Ð¾Ð´Ð¸ÑÑÑ Ð°Ð½Ð°Ð»Ð¸Ð· Ð¸ ÑÐºÐ¾Ð½Ð¾Ð¼Ð¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¾Ðµ Ð¾Ð±Ð¾ÑÐ½Ð¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ðµ Ð¿Ð¾Ð»ÑÑÐµÐ½Ð½ÑÑ Ð² ÑÐµÐ·ÑÐ»ÑÑÐ°ÑÐµ Ð¸ÑÑÐ»ÐµÐ´Ð¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ Ð¼Ð¾Ð´ÐµÐ»ÐµÐ¹. ÐÐ¾ÑÑÑÐ¾ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ðµ Ð¼Ð¾Ð´ÐµÐ»ÐµÐ¹ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð¸ÑÑÐ¾Ð´Ð¸Ñ Ð½Ð° Ð¾ÑÐ½Ð¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ð¸ Ð¼Ð°ÑÐ¸Ð½Ð½Ð¾Ð³Ð¾ Ð¾Ð±ÑÑÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ Ð² Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð³ÑÐ°Ð¼Ð¼Ðµ GNU Regression, Econometrics and Time-series Library (gretl). Ð Ð¼ÐµÑÐ¾Ð´Ð°Ð¼ Ð¸ÑÑÐ»ÐµÐ´Ð¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ Ð¾ÑÐ½Ð¾ÑÐ¸ÑÑÑ Ð°Ð½Ð°Ð»Ð¸Ð·, ÑÐ¸ÑÑÐµÐ¼Ð°ÑÐ¸Ð·Ð°ÑÐ¸Ñ, Ð¼Ð¾Ð´ÐµÐ»Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ðµ, Ð¾Ð±Ð¾Ð±ÑÐµÐ½Ð¸Ðµ, Ð»Ð¾Ð³Ð¸ÐºÐ°. ÐÑÐ¾Ð¸Ð·Ð²ÐµÐ´ÐµÐ½Ð° ÑÐ¸ÑÑÐµÐ¼Ð°ÑÐ¸Ð·Ð°ÑÐ¸Ñ ÑÐµÐ¾ÑÐµÑÐ¸ÑÐµÑÐºÐ¸Ñ Ð·Ð½Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ð¹ ÐºÐ°ÑÐ°ÑÐµÐ»ÑÐ½Ð¾ Ð¿Ð¾ÑÑÑÐ¾ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ Ð¼Ð¾Ð´ÐµÐ»ÐµÐ¹ Ð½Ð° Ð¾ÑÐ½Ð¾Ð²Ðµ Ð´Ð°Ð½Ð½ÑÑ Ñ Ð²ÑÑÐ°Ð¶ÐµÐ½Ð½Ð¾Ð¹ ÑÐµÐ·Ð¾Ð½Ð½Ð¾ÑÑÑÑ, Ð° ÑÐ°ÐºÐ¶Ðµ Ð¿Ð¾ÑÑÑÐ¾ÐµÐ½Ñ Ð¼Ð¾Ð´ÐµÐ»Ð¸ ÑÑÑÑÐºÑÑÑÑ Ð¸ Ð¾Ð±ÑÑÐ¼Ð¾Ð² ÑÐµÐ¿Ð»Ð¾Ð²Ð¾Ð³Ð¾ Ð¿Ð¾ÑÑÐµÐ±Ð»ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ.
description: Purpose: building models of volumes and structure of heat consumption by subscribers of PJSC Â«TGC-1Â» in St. Petersburg. The following tasks are solved: - carrying out a preliminary analysis of data on the structure and volumes of heat consumption; - study of the structure of heat consumption of PJSC TGC-1 subscribers in St. Petersburg; - determination of factors influencing heat consumption; - building a model of the structure and volumes of heat consumption of subscribers of PJSC Â«TGC-1Â» in St. Petersburg; - checking the quality of the model. The relevance of the topic is due to the imperfection of tools in the field of forecasting heat consumption. The models will make it possible to maintain a high quality of service for TGC-1 subscribers. The subject of the study is the process of modeling the structure and volume of heat consumption of PJSC Â«TGC-1Â» subscribers in the city of St. Petersburg. The sources of information were data from domestic research literature, official Internet resources, legal documents, and analytical agencies. The final work was written using the MS Office (Excel) package, based on which the analysis and economic justification of the models obtained as a result of the study are carried out. The models are built based on machine learning in the program Â«GNU Regression, Econometrics and Time-series LibraryÂ» (gretl). Research methods include analysis, systematization, modeling, generalization, logic. Theoretical knowledge has been systematized regarding the construction of models based on data with pronounced seasonality, and models of the structure and volumes of heat consumption have been built.