Title: Systemic fragility in the global economy /
Authors: Rasmus, Jack,
Year: 2016
Subjects: Business cycles.; Financial crises; Stagnation (Economics); Economic development; Economic policy; Business cycles; Economic development; Economic policy; Financial crises; Stagnation (Economics)
Abstract: Just as contemporary economics failed to predict the 2008-09 crash, and over-estimated the subsequent brief recovery that followed, economists today are again failing to accurately forecast the slowing global economic growth, the growing fragility, and therefore rising instability in the global economy. This book offers a new approach to explaining why mainstream economic analyses have repeatedly failed and why fiscal and monetary policies have been incapable of producing a sustained recovery. Expanding upon the early contributions of Keynes, Minsky and others, it offers an alternative explanation why the global economy is slowing long term and becoming more unstable, why policies to date have largely failed, and why the next crisis may therefore prove even worse than that of 2008- 09.^
Contents: Forecasting real & financial instability -- The 'dead-cat bounce' recovery -- The emerging markets' perfect storm -- Japan's perpetual recession -- Europe's chronic stagnation -- China : bubbles, bubbles, debt and troubles -- Slowing real investment -- Drift toward deflation -- Money, credit & exploding liquidity -- Rising levels of global debt -- The shift to financial asset investment -- Structural change in financial markets -- Structural change in labor markets -- Central banks & fragility -- Government debt & government fragility -- Hybrid Kennesians & retro-classicalists -- Mechanical Marxism -- Contributions & limits of Minsky's 'financial instability hypothesis' -- A theory of systemic fragility.