Title: Forecasting zero : U.S. nuclear history and the low probability of disarmament /
Authors: Pearl, Jonathan.; Army War College (U.S.).
Publisher: Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College,
Year: 2011
Subjects: Nuclear disarmament United States History.; Nuclear disarmament International cooperation.; Nuclear weapons United States History; Nuclear weapons United States Forecasting.; Nuclear nonproliferation Government policy United States; Nuclear nonproliferation International cooperation
Abstract: A vigorous debate is occurring among American elites with respect to whether and when the United States should relinquish its nuclear weapons. Bolstering hopes for tangible results is that a U.S. President is again publicly and forcefully supporting disarmament. While this debate, which addresses both technical and political factors related to abolition, may be the most serious one of its kind since the dawn of the nuclear age, the future of U.S. nuclear weapons policy remains uncertain. The general approach advanced today in U.S. policy circles largely hews, after all, to the logic of the past 65 years: arms control and nonproliferation now, disarmament at an undetermined time in the future. Moreover, several conceptual and strategic barriers continue to block serious progress toward U.S. disarmament. By situating the current pro-disarmament rhetoric in this larger historical and strategic context, this monograph argues that there is reason to doubt whether the current push for disarmament will produce meaningful and lasting results.
Contents: American abolitionism : new trick or old pony? (1945-91). Limited dissent for a wartime project -- Shaping the post-war world -- Three important shifts move the United States away from disarmament -- From Kennedy to Carter : the rise of arms control -- A Reagan-era rebirth for disarmament -- Shaping a new world order, or shaped by it? : from Reykjavik to rogue states. New risks and uncertain priorities in the post-Cold War world (1991-2001) -- Disarmament continues its retreat (2001-09) -- A new center or a return to normalcy? : the four horsemen ride to town -- Forecasting the U.S. nuclear future : yes we can (eventually?). The Obama administration : pledges and actions -- Continuity, not revolution -- Guarding your optimism : conceptual roadblocks to disarmament -- Guarding your optimism : structural roadblocks to disarmament -- Conclusion.