premise: The current crisis is on a smaller scale than the Ukraine episode, since just 20 percent of Russian gas exports to Europe go through Belarus, compared to 80 percent through Ukraine.
  Last winter was also one of the coldest recorded in Europe.
  So far, this winter is one of the mildest and so demand for energy is lower. According to the European Union, reserves are big enough to deal with any temporary shortfall.
  Russia's media predicted that Belarus, a country of 10.3 million people sandwiched between Russia and the European Union, will find the cost too high to maintain defiance for long.
  "Unpredictable he may be, but Lukashenko will not continue the conflict with Russia for long," Vedomosti quoted an unnamed Kremlin official as saying, suggesting that Lukashenko might accept a compromise in which Belarus took a loan from Moscow that covered the increased gas price.
   What will happen if Belarus finds the cost to be too much?
hypothesis: accept a compromise in which Belarus took a loan from Moscow