premise: <hypo> if it weren't for two other polls in the same period, a YouGov poll giving Sullivan a 4-point lead and a Dem internal from Harstad showing a tied race (which, after compensating for its partisan status, pencils out to a 3-point Sullivan lead anyway).
hypothesis: <hypo> should be "That boosted Begich's odds from 22 percent to 35 percent, and would have had an even bigger impact"