premise: Another leftist South American nation, Bolivia, has also expressed a desire to join OPEC despite its modest oil production of 40,000 barrels per day.
  The short-term outlook in terms of OPEC's influence on oil prices is likely to depend on the discipline of the cartel and the actual reduction of supplies to the market.
  The cartel decided in October to reduce its output by 1.2 million bpd from the beginning of November, but analysts believe the real reduction has been only 500,000-800,000 bpd because of cheating by some members.
  The cut of 500,000 bpd in February would reduce the output from OPEC members, excluding Iraq and Angola, to 25.8 million bpd in principle.
  Some analysts expressed concern that any reduction in supplies could send prices higher in the months ahead, the peak time for oil demand because of the northern hemisphere winter.
   Why could a reduction in supplies send prices higher in the months ahead?
hypothesis: oil demand because of the northern hemisphere winter